NBA Marketwatch Edition 2 2011-12

Welcome to the second edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 1-0

Recapping Last Week

Last week’s NBA Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Minnesota Timberwolves, fell at home to the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder 104-100. All-Star Kevin Durant paced the OKC offense with 33 points, while sidekick Russell Westbrook pitched in with 28 points, 6 boards and 6 dimes.

However, led by double-double machine Kevin Love (22-12) and PF Michael Beasley (24-5), the upstart T’ Wolves kept it close enough in the end to cover the spread (Minnesota +6), giving NBA Marketwatch its first victory of the young season.

With the NBA season entering its second week of play, the Washington Wizards (0-4, 0-2 away) invade the TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics (2-3, 1-0 home), with tip-off set for 7:30 PM ET.

Despite owning the dubious distinction as the lone remaining winless team in the NBA, the upstart Wizards are a young squad that plays an up-tempo, fastbreak-type brand of basketball under second year head coach Flip Saunders. Sophomore PG and former #1 overall pick John Wall (14.5 PPG, 6.5 APG, 4.5 RPG) is the team’s unquestioned facilitator, while SG Nick Young (14.5 PPG) and C JaVale McGee (13.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG) act as his most reliable playmakers.

In addition, since the Celtics defeated the Wizards 94-86 yesterday in DC, one would expect a vengeful Washington to come out firing in pursuit of a victory. Also, the Wizards youth should play to their advantage tonight, while the old-legged Celtics have historically played poorly in the second game of back-to-backs during the Big Three Era.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Boston opened as a 12.5 point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook
and is currently receiving 57% of all spread bets.

However, despite this relatively lopsided betting percentage in favor of Boston, the line has dropped to -11. This Reverse Line Movement is a clear indicator that sharp money is taking Washington.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams

Market Avg %

Sportsbook

BetUS

Carib

WagerWeb

5Dimes

SIA

WIZARDSCELTICS

43%57%

54%46%

51%49%

13%87%

30%70%

62%38%

33%67%

Further strengthening this play, we have triggered a notable Smart Money move on Washington +12 by Diamond (19-10, 65%, +7.29 units), which is by far and away the most successful NBA Betting System so far this year.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Multiple public books are offering this game at 11 points, so we’ll follow the sharp money, shop for the best line and take the
road dog Wizards in hopes of keeping NBA Marketwatch on the winning path.