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Anon 9:03AM. What is with your cowardly trisnaipg around this site and threatening backlash to R’s? The R’s have published their own plan regarding HC reform and looks to be simpler with more/better coverage and only a fraction as expensive as the Piglosi unreform HC. You appear to be another example of our homegrown Lefty Facist?

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You are correct that the odds reset at each new roll, but that is not the issue here. I am not saying the odds are higher because he struck out. I am saying the odds are that high because they simply are.

The method for calculating his odds of not “striking out” in any remaining summer weeks (i.e., 5 weeks of not striking out), is to calculate ahead of time the odds that he will get at least one proc each week.

Per my post, we know the odds of “no proc” are approximately 6%; thus the odds of getting at least one proc are 94%.

So the odds of getting a proc in all remaining summer weeks requires 5 independent events which have a likelihood of 94% each. The odds of them all going his way are 0.94^5, or 73.4%.

I rounded to 75% for simplicity.

I’m pretty sure on the math here, but I have been wrong before. Back to you.

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This camera can do most of the thgins the 1D can, but it will never achieve the same quality as a professional camera such as the 1Ds in low light condition because the noise is a lot more in this camera (5d mk II) than the 1Ds. You are comparing it to the 1D which indeed is way faster than this one, but check out the specs for the 1Ds Mk III. The place where i work at, they use all cameras 1Ds Mk III and they use the 5D as a back up.

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Unfortunately , Clint is right,,,whatever the past is..the future is not dependent on it.
The odds must be calculated in the beginning.
If you have a 100 no procs…the odds of your next proc does not change.

I have to say from my own experience, it helps if you don’t think about it too much. I do 10 transmutes per day, and I’ve gone as long as a whole week with 0 procs. It happens. Over time, it average out though. Sometimes you get boxcars, sometimes snake eyes. That’s just the name of the game. Obsessing over it will just make you crazy.

I would disagree, I shoot for a liinvg and I have not seen anything the 1D can do that I have not done with the 5D with the exception of more frames for sporting events. I will actually shoot better at low light than than the 1D, just less focal points. I would not call it for beginners unless you just want to shoot in all auto mode.