Trump wants a political win. But he may have to settle for saving face if shutdown damages and suffering spark GOP defiance and a veto override.

From his impolite tweet-storm putdowns of those who dare to disagree with him, to his very undiplomatic dismissals of his own Cabinet, to tossing packages of paper towels at hurricane-ravaged Puerto Ricans, to being unable to sympathize with Gold Star families, we know from ample direct experience not to expect much empathy from President Donald Trump on … well … much of anything. It’s just not him.

So it’s no surprise that Trump has shown no empathy whatsoever for the federal employees and the families and businesses that have been negatively affected by the government shutdown he’s boasted about causing.

After all, given his inherited wealth and family position, it’s very likely that the president has no way to identify with those he has already hurt so much both financially and emotionally. No doubt he’s never worried about paying for rent, groceries, tuition, a credit card or a doctor bill, or had to wait for a tax refund check.

And who among us thinks Trump has ever been a routine visitor to national parks or Smithsonian museums, which are now closed to the public because of the shutdown?

Empathy? As they say in Trump’s home state of New York ... fuhgeddaboudit.

That makes it difficult to see a resolution to the current shutdown. With Trump only thinking about a political win rather than the human and economic damage he’s causing, he really has little incentive to compromise with congressional Democrats over funding for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico. And until that changes, his incentive to hold fast just isn’t likely to go in a different direction.

Several things could alter this.

First and foremost, a change in Trump’s political calculation could substantially revise his thinking. This would most likely come if and when the GOP-controlled Senate realizes that given the damage the shutdown is doing to their states, it would be a good thing to override Trump's veto of a bill that reopened the government.

If Kentucky residents start giving interviews about how they're affected, for example, it’s not hard to imagine Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell changing his mind about refusing to bring a Trump-opposed bill to a vote.

Only pressure from GOP Senate will push Trump

A veto override at the hands of Senate Republicans would be devastating for Trump, especially if it happened at the start of a new Congress, and could easily get him to change his mind about a shutdown.

Second, the economic effects of a shutdown are just starting to be realized. Furloughed federal employees will lead to layoffs in the private sector as a wide array of businesses, from contractors to the Starbucks across from a federal facility, feel the impact.

In addition, the economic effect will soon be magnified beyond federal employees to a much larger group of all workers as tax returns aren’t reviewed by a shuttered Internal Revenue Service and refunds are delayed.

Third will be the costs in human terms. The first time a furloughed federal employee or family member dies because health care isn’t available, the first time a federal employee can't afford prescriptions or can't pay the rent or mortgage and gets evicted, these will create political tremors that many members of Congress will find impossible to ignore.This will be especially true because of the size of the headlines these stories will produce.

Fourth and much less important, but headline-producing nonetheless, will be when a tragedy occurs at one of the national parks, museums or national zoos.

Trump will be moved by GOP political pain

Only the new political calculation will change Trump’s heart on the shutdown. His characteristic lack of empathy makes it very unlikely that he’ll suddenly respond to human suffering.

This means Senate Republicans will have to force an end to the shutdown. They will need to feel the political pain that convinces Trump an override of his veto — an outright defiance — could or will happen and, therefore, a face-saving effort is needed.

That puts the onus directly on McConnell. As a Democrat, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is already a Trump opponent and in less of a position to do him unexpected political harm than the Senate leader of his own party.

The first step is for House Democrats to pass a bill to reopen the government. That gives the Senate something to take up and, as seems likely, to override. At the same time, the human and economic side of the shutdown story will need to be emphasized. This will get easier the longer the shutdown goes on.

But with Trump being who he is, it may still take a while.

Stan Collender teaches federal budgeting at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and is the founder of thebudgetguy.blog. Follow him on Twitter: @thebudgetguy