Monday, May 10, 2010

UK Conservatives missed opportunity with UKIP

In November 2009, UKIP offered to not contest the UK general election at all if the Conservative party promised, in writing, a referendum on the EU Lisbon Treaty. The Conservatives ignored the offer.

They go on to make the case that, had UKIP not contested the election, David Cameron would have had a majority. By my reasoning, the results would have been like this:

Party

Seats

Majority

Seatsw/o UKIP contesting

Majorityw/o UKIP contesting

Conservatives

307

16 short

330

Majority of 15

Labour

258

65 short

242

81 short

Liberal Democrats

57

with Conservatives:Majority of 83with Labour:8 short

50

with Labour:31 short

DUP

8

with Conservatives:8 short

8

with Conservatives:Majority of 31

Othersnot including Sinn Fein

15

15

note: Majorities calculated assuming Sinn Fein do not take their seats, and assuming the Conservatives will win the one remaining constituency, Thirsk and Malton, which is a safe Tory seat. The speaker is included in the conservative tally.

Bottom line: The Conservatives lost because they refused to promise a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

This was done assuming all UKIP votes would have gone to the Conservatives if UKIP had not contested, which is nearly fair judging by how similar their other policies are. To be fair, i will also show a table of what would have happened if only half of the UKIP vote is given to the Conservatives: (assuming the other half vote evenly, vote for other 3rd parties, or stay at home):

Party

Seats

Majority

Seatsw/o UKIP contesting

Majorityw/o UKIP contesting

Conservatives

307

16 short

321

2 short

Labour

258

65 short

248

75 short

Liberal Democrats

57

with Conservatives:Majority of 83with Labour:8 short

53

with Conservatives:Majority of 103with Labour:22 short

DUP

8

with Conservatives:8 short

8

with Conservatives:Majority of 13

Othersnot including Sinn Fein

15

15

So even in this case, they passed up an opportunity for an easy coalition with the DUP and a referendum, for an almost unworkable coalition with a centre left party.