Member

I still think PSO2 is heading to the PS4, seing how PS4 has some F2P games in the West. Maybe SEGA and Sony have make a deal about helping localizing both games in the West (probably no/later PC release then) and some advertising.

What is Dengeki?
Dengeki is a website (it's also a brand of magazines / a book and manga imprint) that publishes sell-through Japanese sales data from ASCII Media Works, Inc. Every week they publish a nationwide snapshot of Japanese video game sales with the cooperation of more than 3,000 specialty game stores and convenience store chains all across Japan.

Why post Dengeki numbers when you have Media Create / Famitsu in the OP?
Among other reasons, Dengeki gives us sales numbers for titles that are too low to debut with numbers on Media Create / Famitsu. So, their liberal reporting allows us to track sales that we wouldn't be able to otherwise.

Is Dengeki less accurate than Media Create / Famitsu?
No. All three trackers are inherently trustworthy. However, they have quirks that make some people prefer one over the other:

Media Create:
+ Nationwide Japanese sales data from Media Create Co., Ltd.
+ Cooperation of more than 3,000 retail stores / chains nationwide (57% of the market)
+ Top 20 software sales with numbers
+ Top 50 software sales without numbers
+ Total hardware sales per platform
+ Sometimes presents sell-through figures
+ Releases first (at the same time as Famitsu)
+ Nintendo uses these numbers in their investor presentations
+ Distinguishes between 3DS and 3DS LL
- Does not track download cards
- Does not provide software sales figures past the Top 20

Famitsu:
+ Nationwide Japanese sales data from Enterbrain, Inc.
+ Cooperation of about 3,600 retail stores / chains nationwide
+ Top 30 software sales with numbers
+ Total hardware sales per platform
+ Sell-through ranges for all titles
+ Has the most historical data available for GAFfers
+ Tracks download cards
+ Releases first (at the same time as Media Create)
- Does not distinguish between 3DS and 3DS LL
- Does not report total software sales

Member

In that case they're better of focusing on just a handheld. At least there's a market for that. A hybrid is a wholly unproven model that constitutes pouring all their eggs in one basket with the high risk of providing the worst of both worlds.

The WiiU's problems hinge more on Nintendo's lack of preparation and foresight, I think, than their inability to support two consoles, in my opinion.

Google Inc's "Chromecast," Apple Inc's "Apple TV," etc are considered as rivals to the PS Vita TV. As an advantage of the PS Vita TV, SCE emphasizes that it allows to use a variety of games.

At this point, more than 1,300 titles of games in various categories can be played. They have a wide price range, making it easy for users to buy them. With the lineup and prices, we can reasonably expect that the PS Vita TV will gain in popularity.

The PS Vita TV was developed mainly for those who have fun with contents with family members in a living room. The concept of the PS Vita TV was created in about August 2011, four months before the release of the PS Vita. After that, SCE discussed it many times and started the development of the PS Vita TV in earnest about a year ago.

Speaking of the games for the PS Vita TV, SCE expects that they will be played by casual gamers rather than serious game lovers, at whom the PS4 is targeted. Expecting such users, the company set a goal to sell the PS Vita TV for a price lower than ¥10,000 (approx US$99.5) at the beginning of the development process. In fact, the price of the PS Vita TV is ¥9,480 (excluding tax).

Member

I don't see why the Vita TV will be successful in Japan. It has games that one could play on an actual portable PSV. Why would a box that allows one to play the same games that they can play on a handheld device, which seems to be more preferable than a box for the TV in Japan.

Member

I don't see why the Vita TV will be successful in Japan. It has games that one could play on an actual portable PSV. Why would a box that allows one to play the same games that they can play on a handheld device, which seems to be more preferable than a box for the TV in Japan.

Of course, it's very likely that the Wii U version did not sell 1,493 copies at launch. That's its maximum threshold.

Next, suppose we adjust Splinter Cell: Blacklist Wii U figures to a more realistic number like ~800:

PS3 - 22,569
360 - 4,170
WIU - 800
Total - 27,539

PS3 - 81.95%
360 - 15.14%WIU - 2.91%

It can be reasonably assumed that the Wii U of Splinter Cell: Blacklist had 3% to 5% of the marketshare in Japan in its debut week.

This is a direct example where the Wii U version of a game---when sold at the same time, for the same price, and with nearly the same features as its PS3 / 360 counterparts---has underwhelmed relative to its other platforms.

This can be partially attributed to lack of userbase, or the fact that the Wii U version is missing offline co-op. But it can also be connected to an underlying dread...the kind of dread that gets consoles like the Wii U into a negative feedback cycle.

It goes like this:

0) A console just came out, so its userbase is small

1) Wii U sales of third-party retail games are low
2) The Wii U versions of functionally equivalent multiplats have pathetic marketshares ->
3) They won't make the third-party company a sufficient profit
4) It's no longer worth the opportunity costs to divert resources to create future ports
5) Wii U third-party development declines because third-parties decide not to support it
6) The Wii U endures negative developer sentiment from the stigma of being a "first-party machine"
7) Many multiplats don't come to the Wii U
8) Retailers give the system less exposure
9) Consumers get dissuaded from buying Wii U multiplats
10) It's now a more challenging environment for the Wii U to sell third-party retail games

Just repeat that cycle (steps 1-10) over and over again.

Nintendo is falling into this vicious cycle as the few third-party retail games that are coming out for the system (Yakuza 1&2 HD, Splinter Cell: Blacklist) underwhelm.

It may not be the case that the Wii U is completely unworkable for third-parties. After all, Capcom and Square Enix were able to utilize the Wii U to sell their flagship IPs (Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at >200K and Dragon Quest X at >72K) above non-abysmal levels.

But the problem is that this negative feedback cycle is caused by PERCEPTION. When developers perceive a console as "dead," it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Member

I think the WiiU shows how many gamers (not expanded audience, who hasn't returned) are willing to buy a console solely for Nintendo's traditional games (sorry Wonderful 101). So at the moment, that's 3 million worldwide, correct? Which I would guess isn't enough to sustain an HD console endeavor. Which should let Nintendo know that they need to "attract more than just Nintendo gamers" when they make their next console. I don't know in what way that would be accomplished though.

Member

Even after 7 years on the market the PS3 is still not in impulse buy territory. PTV is probably the only current dedicated gaming system that hits that note. Even the 2DS will be $30 (?) more expensive.

Aside from the great idea the main thing Sony nailed with VitaTV is price.

It might also provide a venue for Japanese devs to dive back into making console games, being unable to keep up with the tech and costs of the PS3 and all that.

Member

Even after 7 years on the market the PS3 is still not in impulse buy territory. PTV is probably the only current dedicated gaming system that hits that note. Even the 2DS will be $30 (?) more expensive.

Aside from the great idea the main thing Sony nailed with VitaTV is price.

It might also provide a venue for Japanese devs to dive back into making console games, being unable to keep up with the tech and costs of the PS3 and all that.

But just getting impulse buyers won't make it successful. It will just get impulse buyers and early adopters, not the market at large. The VitaTV loses what is one of the most appealing things about the Vita, which is that it is a handheld.

Why would a handheld device now set-top box will get Japanese devs back into console games? All games on Vita TV would be on the Vita.

Member

But just getting impulse buyers won't make it successful. It will just get impulse buyers and early adopters, not the market at large. The VitaTV loses what is one of the most appealing things about the Vita, which is that it is a handheld.

Why would a handheld device now set-top box will get Japanese devs back into console games? All games on Vita TV would be on the Vita.

Of course, it's very likely that the Wii U version did not sell 1,493 copies at launch. That's its maximum threshold.

Next, suppose we adjust Splinter Cell: Blacklist Wii U figures to a more realistic number like ~800:

PS3 - 22,569
360 - 4,170
WIU - 800
Total - 27539

PS3 - 81.95%
360 - 15.14%WIU - 2.91%

It can be reasonably assumed that the Wii U of Splinter Cell: Blacklist had 3% to 5% of the marketshare in Japan in its debut week.

This is a direct example where the Wii U version of a game---when sold at the same time, for the same price, and with nearly the same features as its PS3 / 360 counterparts, has underwhelmed relative to its other platforms.

This can be partially attributed to lack of userbase, or the fact that the Wii U version is missing offline co-op. But it can also be connected to an underlying dread...the kind of dread that gets consoles like the Wii U into a negative feedback cycle.

It goes like this:

0) A console just came out, so its userbase is small ->

1) Wii U sales of third-party retail games are low ->
2) The Wii U versions of functionally equivalent multiplats have pathetic marketshares ->
3) They won't make the third-party company a sufficient profit ->
4) It's no longer worth the opportunity costs to divert resources to create future ports ->
5) Wii U third-party development declines because third-parties decide not to support it ->
6) The Wii U endures the negative developer sentiment from the stigma of being a "first-party machine" ->
7) Many multiplats don't come to the Wii U ->
8) Retailers divert less exposure for the system ->
9) Existing consumers get dissuaded from buying Wii U multiplats ->
10) It's now a more challenging environment for the Wii U to sell third-party retail games ->

Just repeat that cycle (steps 1-10) over and over again.

Nintendo is falling into this vicious cycle as the few third-party retail games that are coming out for the system (Yakuza 1&2 HD, Splinter Cell: Blacklist) underwhelm.

It may not be the case that the Wii U is completely unworkable for third-parties. After all, Capcom and Square Enix were able to utilize the Wii U to sell their flagship IPs (Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate at >300K and Dragon Quest X at >72K) above non-abysmal levels.

But the problem is that this negative feedback cycle is caused by PERCEPTION. When developers perceive a console as "dead," it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I'm not going to pretend I have what it takes to run a company, but NCL needs to get a software ecosystem in place for their handhelds and home consoles as soon as they can. A universal Nintendo OS, Miiverse and unified account is a must. Get this on a WiiU 2.0 [console] and a WiiU 1.5/2.0 XL [handheld].

Banned

I'm not going to pretend I have what it takes to run a company, but NCL needs to get a software ecosystem in place for their handhelds and home consoles as soon as they can. A universal Nintendo OS, Miiverse and unified account is a must. Get this on a WiiU 2.0 [console] and a WiiU 1.5/2.0 XL [handheld].

Missing the forest for the trees a bit. Whatever major policy shift that occurs at Nintendo to make it successful in the modern age will result in those features, but they're the consequence, not the cause.

Yea, it is a whole in terms of userbase, but they are both allowing one to play the same games largely. And when you are presented te choice and given the preference towards handhelds due to the lifestyle, the Vita will be their choice.

Good point, though I wonder what effect the Vita TV may or may not have in driving software sales. Definitely can't hurt to grow the userbase if the investment on Sony's part is low enough to justify it.

Could be due to the Vita having a more modern OS, which might make it easier to keep the console version in sync with the PC one. Having to wait for patches and new content to be certified and processed is typically the main reason we don't see many games offer cross-platform multiplayer for the current gen. Things seem better on the PS4 with games like War Thunder offering cross-platform play, and it might also apply to the Vita.