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Miami Dolphins decision with Ryan Tannehill in NFL Draft will determine if team is ‘rebuilding’ in 2012

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin doesn’t want to say much about whether the Dolphins will be “rebuilding” in 2012.

“It’s way too early to predict where we’re going to be in the win-loss column,” Philbin said two weeks ago at the NFL owners meetings. “And I think it’d be a disservice to the players to say we’re in rebuilding mode.”

Philbin may not have to say anything, though. The Dolphins’ decision with Ryan Tannehill and eighth pick in the NFL Draft might say everything we need to know about the Dolphins’ intentions in 2012.

Many league insiders have the Dolphins taking Tannehill with the eighth pick because of the importance of the position and Tannehill’s close connection to Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, who was Tannehill’s head coach for four years in college.

And yet many of those same insiders believe that Tannehill isn’t really the eighth-best prospect in the draft, and he isn’t NFL-ready.

Former Colts president Bill Polian, who was preparing for the 2012 draft before the Colts fired him in January, said he had Tannehill rated in the 20s on his draft board and called him a “developmental guy.”

“He needs one year, maybe two, behind an experienced guy,” Polian, now an ESPN analyst, said this week.

NFL Network’s Mike Mayock called Tannehill “very raw” and said “he gets eaten alive this year by NFL defenses.”

Mel Kiper: “If he plays this year, he will be a bust.”

Todd McShay: “You better be prepared to sit him for at least the majority of the season.”

If the Dolphins use the eighth overall pick on a player who might have to sit out the entire season, it’s a pretty clear sign that they are using 2012 as a rebuilding year and thinking ahead to 2013.

And it would make a lot of sense. The Dolphins didn’t have much salary cap room this year to improve the team, but have only $67 million in commitments for next year (with the salary cap expected to be around $120 million again), which means the roster could look drastically different in 2013. The Dolphins’ two other veteran quarterbacks – Matt Moore and David Garrard – also are free agents after 2012.

It would certainly make sense for the Dolphins to draft Tannehill, sit him behind the two veterans this year, and hand him the team for next year (although the Dolphins learned the hard way with Chad Henne about giving the reins to a young quarterback without making him earn the job through competition).

But the Dolphins might not be ready to punt, either. Stephen Ross badly wants to bring fans back to the stadium. Jeff Ireland needs some wins to get off the hot seat. The 49ers certainly proved last year that a team can go from 6-10 to the playoffs with a new coaching staff and similar roster. And with the eighth pick, the Dolphins may have the chance to draft an elite, immediate-impact player at another position – most likely one of the best two pass rushers in the draft, South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram or North Carolina’s Quinton Coples.

“If Coples or Ingram are there, that’s the way you’ve got to go,” Sports Illustrated draft analyst Tony Pauline said. “Even Coples, with all of his (effort issues), is more of a sure thing. He’s got much less downside risk, and he’s going to impact your team a lot quicker.”

The Dolphins didn’t draft a quarterback in the first round last year for just that reason – Ireland and Tony Sparano desperately needed to win in 2011. Instead, they took a center in Mike Pouncey, who was a starter from Day 1 and gave the Dolphins an instant boost on the offensive line.

Do the Dolphins feel the same way this year? Whether or not they pick Tannehill at 8 could tell us everything we need to know.