Named after the three cities I live in, this blog will focus on Israeli, Palestinian, and Turkish politics and social issues. In addition, I will periodically cover other topics related to the Middle East.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

…on the
twenty-fifth of December. While perhaps it is still early to make such a
bombastic statement, however there is no doubt that what we saw on this day is an
historic turning point. For the first time, Turkish citizens and analysts alike
are starting to imagine a Turkey without the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep
Tayyip Erdogan.

Just hours after
the resignations came the second political earthquake: news came in that a “Second
Wave” arrests was about to take place. However, no time at all passed before
rumors spread throughout the media and twitter waves that the police were
refusing to carry out the prosecutor’s orders, which included the detainment
of Erdogan’s son, Bilal, along with a whole list of key business figures.

The next day,
late in the afternoon, news broke that the prosecutor of the “Second Wave,” had
been removed from the case. According to the prosecutor, M.
Akkas, “I learned that I was removed from my duty without any
justification, while the search warrants, seizure [of materials] and arrest
orders [were also taken from me]. The responsibility from now on falls with the
Istanbul public prosecutor and his deputy. All of the public and my colleagues
should know that my task as a prosecutor has been obstructed…”

In the meantime, Erdogan, who just appointed a new cabinet in a "reshuffle" (a move planned ahead of
probe in preparation of the March local elections and post-budget approval) has
opted to stand strong against all accusations of corruption, blaming it on international
conspiracy. Further, he even went so far to praise the main suspect of the “First
Wave” of the corruption probe, Reza Zarrab,
and is standing by the CEO of Halkank, who was allegedly found with shoe
boxes of dollars stashed away in his home. In Erdogan’s words,“Zarrab exports
gold and I know that he is involved in charity activities as well.” In others,
if some thought he would throw Zarrab and his accused accomplices “under the
bus,” at least for now that is far from the case.

In my last blog,
I asked how long will AKP MPs be willing to put up with this circus; one major
MP already resigned on December 25 (following the resignation of the ministers),
Idris Naim Sahin; another MP, hinted to widespread corruption while handing
over his post to the newly appointed minister after Erdogan relieved him from
his position as minister in the “reshuffle.” Lastly, one AKP MP criticized the
PM for appointing an Interior Minister who is not a MP. However, the fact that there is a stirring within the party, does not mean that we are anywhere near a group
of AKP MPs abandoning Erdogan, in order to set up a new party within the
parliament.

Nevertheless, if
the state of affairs continue to deteriorate at the speed it has been during
the last few days, it seems hard to imagine that his party members will remain
silent. In the event they do not take matters into their hands, then Erdogan
will need to face a growing chorus of opposition calling for his resignation,
or at least, early elections, among the Turkish population at large. For now, however, the ball is still in Erdogan's court, and he very well could come out on top if he plays his cards right.

Monday, December 23, 2013

A Turkish telenovela could not
have had a better script: last Tuesday morning, police forces completed an
early morning raid detaining some of the country’s top political, social, and
business elite: An Iranian-Azeri businessmen, married to a famous pop-star;
three government ministers’ sons; the CEO of a government bank; a
multi-millionaire construction tycoon; and a local mayor of Istanbul’s
Fatih district, a member of the ruling government. Within hours of the arrest,
it was clear that this would be one of the greatest scandals in Turkish
history, a graft probe that connected the lives of the rich and famous with the
country’s top politicians.

Reza Zarrab (left) with Turkish Minister Suat Kılıç (right)

Since news broke almost a week ago, we
have learned that the raid was related to three different probes, and two of
the big names, each belonging to a different probe, have been released awaiting
trial: the construction mogul, Ali Agaoglu, and the mayor of Fatih
municipality, Mustafa Demir. While these two probes are quite telling on their
own accord, the graft probe that has shaken the Turkish political world to the core is related
to the arrest of Reza Zarrab, the Iranian-Azeri businessman (married to the famous singer Ebru Gündes), who is accused of paying off millions of
dollars to high-ranking personalities, such as, two government ministers’ sons,
and the CEO of the state ran bank, Halkbank. Further, it is alleged that Egemen
Bağış, the Turkish Minister of EU Affairs, was central in acquiring Turkish
citizenship for Zarrab, and rumored that the Economic Minister,
Zafer Cağlayan, whose son was arrested, received a $350,000 watch as a present from Zarrab.

During the last week, Turkey's once believed-invincible Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been working hard to close the pandora’s box that has been opened: following
the arrests, he sacked tens of high-ranking police officers involved in the
trial, and is placing great pressures on the judicial system. Similar to his
reaction during the Gezi Park protests, the Prime Minister, is trying to
convince all that this is the work of secret forces; some pro-government
newspaper outlets have placed blame on the US, while others on the likely candidate, Israel (surely it must be the Jews behind this). However, the
gravity of this embarrassment is not the fact that his government is condoning
rampant corruption, rather, more and more, it seems like it is an integral part
of it.

Just days ago, numerous photos have hit
the press showing Reza Zarrab at official state events and ceremonies, leading
some to cynically suggest that Zarrab should be declared as an honorary member
of the government. While there is no photo of him with the Prime Minister, he
appears twice with the PM’s wife, Emine Erdoğan, together with Suat Kılıç, the up-and-coming favorite Minister of Erdoğan, in a photo with the previously mentioned Minister, Egemen Bagis, and with the
wife of the Interior Minister, Muammer Güler, whose son was
one of the ones arrested. In other words, from the photos it is apparent that Reza Zarrab had very
close relations with many in the high-echelons of the governing AK party; further, his presence at
official openings begs the question whether or not he or his wife, Gündeş, contributed illegal monies to public
institutions.

Zarrab’s close relations is damning to
the AK Party’s image that was elected as an anti-corruption party. During their
eleven years in power, rumors of corruption have come-and-gone, and with over
four-hundred billion dollars of foreign investment energizing Turkey’s economy,
and the subsequent over-the-top construction boom, corruption seems almost unavoidable
(something that is central to the two previous probes that were mentioned at
the beginning of the article). However, most damaging to the party, is the fact
that Erdoğan has decided to challenge the allegations head-on, risking a head-on collision with the Turkish electorate, which despite all his
rallying, must simply be tired of the endless controversy; yes, some Turkish citizens
might have not been the most sympathetic to the Gezi Park protests, but this
too took a toll on them. Now, if Erdogan does not quickly take control (with no
signs of this in the future), he is at risk of being left alone, with a much
less (even if consolidated) numbered of die-hard supporters.

If this was not enough, with the Gülen Movement accused as being the perpetrators, uncovering
of this scandal, it is hard to imagine that the party will be able to make up
the votes lost due to the parting of this once staunch ally. Furthermore, even if it is too early
to predict how this scandal will play out, it perhaps is time to ask how much
longer members of Erdoğan’s party will put up with this circus;
at what point will respectable members of his cabinet jump ship. Such as, Foreign
Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, who, despite criticism of his
foreign policy, remains a serious politician that could lead a conservative
agenda in Turkey. Lastly, it seems more likely than ever that Turkey’s
president, Abdullah Gül, also will
remain unscathed from these scandals, and this could be an opportunity to strengthen his hold over Turkish politics.

In the first article of my series on the upcoming Turkish local elections, I ended by saying that this season will be
interesting to say the least, no one could have predicted such a major fallout.
What is clear is that if there was any chance for opposition parties to make
gains against the AK Party, the time is now. Also, if Erdoğan weathers this storm, he certainly he will hold up his reputation as being the political genius, as we all know him as; but the question remains, at what price.

Whatever comes out of this political scandal, it is clear that the biggest loser from this graft probe will not be one politician or another, truly, it is the Turkish state's standing among its citizens, and in the world. They say in Turkish, yazık (it's a pity); simply put, this probe cannot be described in any other way.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

At the end of March 2014, Turkey will once again head to the polls to vote
in mayors for the country’s municipalities, marking five years since the
previous ones, and almost three years since the 2011 national elections. While
local elections do not always serve as an indicator for the general public’s
confidence in a ruling party, there is no doubt that the upcoming elections in
Turkey is quickly turning into a referendum for the ruling AK Party, which
received almost fifty percent of the vote in the last national elections.

Actually, it is not the opposition parties that are treating this as a
referendum, who obviously know the stakes are high; rather, it is Turkey’s
strong Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is pushing this stance. We
have to remember that Erdogan is at his best during elections, and during the
past few weeks he has been campaigning “full-steam ahead.”

Ever since the Gezi Park protests, in fact, Erdogan has been on a non-stop
campaign challenging his opponents, or anyone who has the potential to
challenge his hegemony, one-by-one. Most
recently, in an attempt to consolidate power within his own party, the Turkish
prime minister opened a front against the Gülen movement, or what is known in
Turkish as the Hizmet (Service) movement, or the Cemaat (the
Society). However, it is still premature to see how the unfolding row will play
out in the upcoming local elections. Clearly, the twitter wars between the two camps has showed us just how messy Turkish politics can become.

What is clear is that Erdogan’s constant divisive “powerhouse” politics
will most likely lead to a decline in his support, something I already claimed
just two weeks before the Gezi protests. However, let us not lose sight, local
elections can be misleading; it is important to remember that Erdoğan also
treated the 2009 elections as a referendum and despite the opposition parties
gaining some ground, just two years later, in the national elections, he swept
the ballots, getting almost 50% of the general vote (see my former blogs on 2009
local election, and 2011 national
elections).

The key to any true success on behalf of the main opposition party, the
Republican People’s Party (CHP), will depend greatly on how dynamic their
candidates are, and the party’s ability to open the door to communities they
have shunned in this past. In Istanbul, and the other major cities, utilizing
the space the Gezi Park protests created without exploiting it will be central;
in other words, the party will need to capture the overall population’s imagination,
heightening spirits that change is possible.

During the next 3.5 months, I will be covering different aspects of the
elections and focusing on how other parties, such as the newly formed Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) and how its candidate for Istanbul, the Gezi protester
and MP, Sırrı Süreyya Önder, will influence the race. On the same token, I will
be watching if CHP’s choice of Mustafa Sarıgul to run for mayor in Istanbul was
a good or bad one (he will officially open his campaign this Thursday).
Further, I will give a rundown of the other cities and regions, looking at
which parties are most likely to make gains, or hold ground, such as the Peace
and Democratic Party (BDP) in the southeastern Kurdish regions, and the
National Action Party (MHP), in the western regions and some cities in the
interior. Indeed, this election should
be an exciting one!

*The coverage will be indexed as seen above in title

FOLLOW ME on TWITTER @istanbultelaviv for more on whats happening in Turkey and Israel/Palestine, and the Middle East at large. Contact: louisfishman@gmail.com

Saturday, December 7, 2013

It has been a week since the
“Day of Rage,” when thousands of protesters took to the streets to protest
plans by the Israeli government to implement the Prawer-Begin plan, which aims
at transferring tens-of-thousands of Bedouin Arabs living in “unrecognized”
villages into established settlements, and making way for new Jewish towns in
their place. The protesters, who were mostly Palestinian-Israelis (or known by
the state as “Israeli-Arabs,”; those who live within the 1948 borders of the
Israeli state and hold Israeli citizenship), together with leftist Jewish
groups, sent a strong message to the Israeli government, and the Israeli
population at large, that they will not remain oblivious to the oppressive
plans of the Netanyahu government. During the day of rage, protest took place in Hura, Haifa and Jaffa in Israel, and also in Palestinian parts of Jerusalem, and in the Palestinian city of Ramallah, in addition to places throughout the world.

Despite the large protests, the
Israeli government remains adamant to move forward with plans to transfer the
population, and while it is still being discussed in the Knesset Internal
Affairs committee, it should go to the floor for parliamentary approval in the winter session. Therefore,
it is essential to spread the words in order to halt this racist plan and keep
it on the agenda. I for one, if in Israel, or abroad, will continue to protest
this plan.

As an
Israeli citizen, for me, this plan just reconfirms that Israel, in place of
reconciling with its history and recognizing the Nakba, and other injustices done to almost 20% of the population, it continues a policy of transferring Palestinians to make
way for Jewish settlements (in addition to expropriating lands).

Protesters being dispersed in Hura, see link to photos below

To read on about the Prawer
Plan, here are links to two organizations that are at the forefront of the
struggle for justice on behalf of the Bedouins in the Negev: First, there isAdalahand its page with links about the Prawer Plan,
and aposition
paperit sponsored; and then
there is the Negev Coexistence Forum for Civil Equality,with
plenty of information. Also, if tweeting, look for the #hashtags:#برافر_لن_يمر#פראוורלאיעבור and#StopPrawerPlan
(choose the language!)

Lastly,
the internet news site, 972Mag, has compileda nice collection of imagesof the protests and the clashes that
ensued, showing excessive police force, which used stun grenades, water-cannons,
and teargas to disperse crowds.