Couture vs. Lesnar: Who Will Win and Why

The upcoming bout between Randy Couture and Brock Lesnar is being billed as “the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history.” While I’m a bit skeptical about the bout’s billing, it is without a doubt, a highly interesting fight. After a lengthy contract dispute, UFC heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture will return to the cage to face former WWE superstar Brock Lesnar. Couture was last seen defeating Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74. Lesnar’s last fight ended with a dominating three round decision over veteran Heath Herring at UFC 87. The buildup for this fight has been tremendous thus far, with most fans seemingly split between favoring Couture based on his experience or Lesnar based on his size and strength. To explore both sides of the argument, I needed a little help. So without further ado….

“In Randy Couture’s corner is a master of words and whoop ass. He’s a freestyle blogger who’s never encountered an argument he didn’t think he could win. Ladies and gentleman, from the Houston Chronicle… Jared Barnes!”
“In Brock Lesnar’s corner is an up and coming contender. His writing style is quick witted and light hearted. Ladies and gentleman, the best looking MMA blogger from the Seattle P-I…. Tom Kim!”

Jared comes out swinging first: While Brock Lesnar is bigger, stronger and younger than Couture, he’s simply too inexperienced to pose much of a threat to the champ. Couture is the best tactician MMA has ever seen and he’s going to explore Lesnar’s weaknesses, find them and then exploit them to get the win. There are so many places Couture can take Lesnar that he’s never been in a MMA fight. Lesnar’s never been hurt with strikes, been trapped against the cage, been put on his back, gone 5 rounds, had to exchange strikes or has had to prove himself capable of fighting through adversity. Couture will make Lesnar uncomfortable, Lesnar will make a mistake and then Couture will finish the fight. Couture is better than Lesnar in every technical aspect of the game. His striking, wrestling and submissions are superior to Lesnar’s. He’s better in the clinch and in scramble type situations as well. While Lesnar has proven himself to have powerful strikes, he wasn’t able to finish Frank Mir or Heath Herring by KO or TKO and he won’t be able to finish Couture either.

Prediction: Couture via TKO in round 4

Tom counters: Randy may have a major experience advantage over Lesnar, but he has never fought anyone like him. Lesnar has to cut weight just to make the 265 pound heavyweight limit. That means he’ll likely weight about 285 pounds come fight time, which is about 50 pounds more than Randy. To put that in perspective, that’s about the difference between a standard Chihuahua and a standard America Pit Bull! I understand MMA is a sport of skill, but the size difference cannot be underestimated. In the past, Randy has had difficulty dealing with much larger, wrestling based fighters like Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett. He may have fared well against Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga, but Tim is primarily a striker, and Gonzaga never once managed to get top position on Randy. Brock will not have that problem however and will manage to put Randy on his back. As well rounded as Randy is he has never been especially good off his back and has just two submission victories in his entire career. To beat a beast like Brock, you either have to be a serious submission threat off your back (ala Frank Mir) or a threat to KO him standing. Randy is neither and that’s why he’ll lose.

Prediction: Lesnar via decision

“After a long, hard fought battle, the winner of this outstanding argument will now be determined by the judges. Ladies and gentleman, the winner by split decision… Tom Kim!” (At least in his opinion anyway)