Tag: All Star Break

I hope to post a weekly series called “Will they ever be Royal?” from here on out. The series name is a play on the famous Lorde song that got considerable play in Kansas City during the 2013 season, when they suddenly got competitive again, and set in motion their 2014 and 2015 World Series runs. Basically, these are quick bits on some important stories going on in the Royals system, especially concerning prospects.

These posts won’t be as long as my usual posts, and a lot of them will refer you to links where you can read more about the points I bring up. There are a lot of great sites that provide more in-depth prospects coverage, with “Royals Farm Report” being a prime one (follow their blog and them on Twitter; the writers really run the best Royals prospects site out there), so I want to defer to others when it is necessary. That being said, I will highlight key stories going on in the farm system which I think hardcore Royals fans should know about it. (Non-Hardcore fans probably have stopped caring about the Royals a month ago and are glued to Chiefs coverage.)

So here are some bits on what’s going on in the Royals farm system.

Seuly Matias turns heads at Futures game

No Royals prospect has been more polarizing than 19-year-old outfielder Seuly Matias, who currently has 27 home runs with the Lexington Legends (he just hit his 27th yesterday), which leads not only the South Atlantic League but the Minors overall (I have written about Matias before on the Roto Royal). Matias has a smooth big swing with oodles of power, but prospect experts have been mixed on his projection. Baseball Prospectus lists him as the top Royals prospect in the system and ranked him 75th overall in their pre-season Top 100. Baseball America ranked him as the 3rd best prospect in the Royals system (behind 1B Nick Pratto and OF Khalil Lee) and graded him a 60 EXTREME (meaning that his future is highly questionable; he could be a superstar or bust). At such a young age, and with such big strikeout numbers (he’s striking out in 36.8 percent of his plate appearances with Lexington this year), it really is difficult to see how Matias will project.

However, Matias showed well in the Futures Game last Sunday, with his prime achievement being a majestic oppo-field home run off of Justus Sheffield, one of the top pitching prospects in the Royals system.

That’s some strong praise indeed. Matias has gone under the radar a bit this season because the Royals system is not highly ranked, and he still is a few years away from really having an impact at the Major League level. However, after a great All-Star weekend, the magnifying glass is on the young Dominican outfielder. It will be interesting to see how the kid will not only handle the increase of attention from Royals fans and the media but also opposing pitchers in the second half of the Minor League season.

Khalil Lee hits first home run in Double-A

The No. 2 prospect in the Royals system according to Baseball America, and the No. 4 prospect according to Fangraphs, Khalil Leeis an outfield prospect who has a big arm, and relies on his speed. According to Fangraphs, his arm rated as a 60 on the 20-80 scale, and his speed currently rated as a 55. Lee has demonstrated a knack to be aggressive on the basepaths, as he stole 20 bases last season in Lexington and has 16 so far between Wilmington (A+) and Northwest Arkansas (AA). Unfortunately, while Lee has the speed, he still has to develop his instinct on the bases as he was caught 18 times in Lexington last season. That being said, he has been much more proficient in 2018, as he has only been caught three total times this year, a significant improvement in success rate from a year ago.

Khalil Lee’s elite on-base abilities combined with his speed separate him from plenty of folks at similar levels. He walks like a power hitter and runs like a leadoff hitter. Pretty good combination for a leadoff hitter. Lee has been leading off a lot for the AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, a position I’d like to see him stay in long-term. He is going to be so much fun to watch when he gets to Kansas City.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for Lee since being called up to Northwest Arkansas just three days after his 20th birthday. After posting a .270 average and .808 OPS to go along with four home runs and 14 stolen bases in 301 plate appearances in the Carolina League with Wilmington, Lee is only posting a .224 average and .638 OPS to go along with 1 home run and 2 stolen bases in 80 plate appearances in the Texas League.

However, on July 18th on the road against Springfield, Lee launched his first Double-A home run, which proved to be an absolute bomb as evidenced below:

Much like Matias, opinions differ on Lee’s projections going forward, as he is a strong athlete, but still has to work on a lot of aspects of his game, especially when it comes to making contact. He had a 32.1 percent strikeout rate in Lexington last year, and though his rate has declined, it still has been pretty high as evidenced by 24.9 percent and 23.8 percent K rates in Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, respectively. However, Patrick Brennan, founder of Royals Farm Report, posted this on Twitter in reference to a 2080 Baseball article that ranked the Top 125 Prospects of the Midseason.

Lee is making good progress in the Royals system, as he is 2.4 years younger than the average player in Double-A. So there isn’t tremendous pressure on him to “produce” right away (development is the main focus for him now). Thus, it will be interesting to see how he continues to develop not just this season in Northwest Arkansas, but this Fall and beyond.

Bubba Starling out at least six weeks

Things haven’t turned out as expected for Bubba Starling, the 5th overall pick of the 2011 MLB Draft. Despite signing one of the largest signing bonuses in Royals history at the time, the local Gardner, Kansas high school three-sport star has failed to live up to the considerable hype he received when he decided to pursue professional baseball instead of football at Nebraska. Originally ranked as the 24th best prospect in baseball going into 2012 by Baseball America, Starling has only posted a .235 average and .693 OPS in 617 games and 2,483 career plate appearances over seven seasons. Though he certainly has the size at six-feet, four inches, and 215 pounds, the tools never really developed for Starling over the course of his Minor League career.

However, despite his lackluster performance, Starling still is on the Royals’ 40-man roster (as of July 21st) and there was hope that with the Royals tanking and going nowhere, Starling would debut this year with the big league club at some point. However, Rustin Dodd of the Athletic posted this on Twitter on July 19th:

Bubba Starling will miss six weeks after dislocating his left index finger last week, the Royals announced. The injury wasn’t baseball-related; it happened while he was visiting home.

Starling will turn 26 in August, and it seems certain that he just doesn’t have the skills or ability to be a Major League player (Age 26 is the prospect peak, meaning they are what they are as a player at this age). I’m sure Starling is a great person, and maybe he could return to football and have a Brandon Weeden-esque quarterback career or something. But after this latest setback, and with the Royals most likely going to add more pieces to their system by the trade deadline, it may be best for both sides if Starling finally steps away from baseball once and for all.

The All-Star game is at the end of the day an exhibition for baseball fans. It doesn’t “count” anymore (thank God), and even though most fans will vote on players based on merit, it is understandable that fans may vote a player in over one who may be more deserving statistically. One can look at Bryce Harper, who’s playing the All-Star game in his hometown, for getting voted in as a starting outfielder, even though he is hitting only .214, the lowest batting average of his career. But, his copious amounts of dingers (23 home runs thus far), and the host crowd got him over, even though there probably were better starting options available in the National League.

In the American League, some are making the case that Royals catcher Salvador Perez shouldn’t be on the All-Star roster, let alone starting (though to be frank, he is only starting because original starting catcher, Wilson Ramos, suffered a hamstring injury right before the break and is expected to go to the DL. The emergency start will be the 29-year-old Venezuelan’s fifth-straight start in the All-Star game and his sixth appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic overall. Yet despite those gaudy accolades, it isn’t hard to see where non-Kansas City baseball fans might have a problem with Perez taking an All-Star spot, as this season has been one of the more mediocre ones of his career statistically, and he is the face of the worst team in baseball record-wise at the break. Some may argue that Yan Gomes of the Indians should have been starting the All-Star exhibition rather than Perez, considering Gomes’ offensive numbers are better than Perez’s and the Indians are in first place in the AL Central. And furthermore, some may argue for the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez, whose average is a lot worse than Perez’s (.190 to .221), but has demonstrated better-advanced numbers than Perez in the first half (.313 wOBA to .281 for Perez).

I am not saying that Perez is a slam dunk All-Star selection by any means. This first half has certainly been concerning for one of Royals fans’ most beloved players. That being said, I will explain why Salvy deserves an All-Star berth and even start this year even though the “surface level” stats may say otherwise.

While he has 13 home runs, Salvy has struggled offensively, as evidenced by his .281 wOBA.

The case against Salvy starting/playing in the All-Star Game…

The main case against Salvy starting the All-Star game mostly centers on offense. And to be honest, you would have a point. In the table below that I created initially on Fangraphs, I sorted all AL Catchers who had 200 or more plate appearances. As you can see, according to wRC+, Salvy ranks 8th out the 11 qualifying catchers, with a mark of 73. If you sort the other offensive only categories below, he ranks near the bottom in most.

Another aspect that hurts Perez is his offensive runs above average (OFF), which sits at a negative-12.1, good for 9th out of the 11 qualifying AL catchers in this sample. OFF combines batting runs and baserunning runs, and as one can see, Perez has been more detrimental than positive to the Royals lineup (though to be fair, this is a 27-win Royal team we’re talking about; pretty much everyone has been detrimental to this roster this year). One big reason for Perez’s lackluster offensive ability has been his lack of plate discipline this season, as Perez has become more free-swinging than ever. Al Melchior of Rotographs wrote a great piece on Perez’s ineffective and wild approach at the plate as a big reason for his decline in 2018. Melchior had this to say about Perez in his article (for more context, check out the graphs embedded in Melchior’s piece):

“If he is slumping, it may be because of where he is at in his career arc. Perez has never been a choosy hitter, but his plate discipline has been especially bad the last two seasons…He has increased his O-Swing% substantially this year, just as he did last year. Possibly because pitchers know they don’t have to give Perez pitches in the strike zone, his Zone% has fallen precipitously, especially from 2017 to 2018…It’s a trend that is working against Perez, because he has the lowest wOBA on pitches outside of the strike zone…of any hitter this season (min. 100 plate appearances on pitches out of the zone). Perez (.173), Chris Owings (.189) and Alcides Escobar (.196) are the only hitters with a sub-.200 O-wOBA.”

Everything about Perez’s offensive numbers screams “horrendous”. His .221/.259/.394 slash resemble a starting catcher at the end of his prime, not a 29-year-old All-Star. His BB/K ratio sits at 0.14, and his walk rate is 2.9 percent, a sign of a grossly impatient hitter. Lastly, his swinging strike percentage of 13.4 percent is the highest rate of his career and his 77.4 percent contact rate is the lowest of his career.

And when you combine that with the fact that he plays on a 27-win Royals team which plays in arguably the worst division in baseball (at least the Orioles have the excuse that they’re playing regularly against the Red Sox and Yankees), and it’s easy to see why the argument against Perez being an All-Star is valid. Yes, Salvy is a loveable figure in baseball. Yes, he is associated with great memories of success for Royals fans. Yes, he’s probably one of the few (if only) guys keeping this Royals team together in the clubhouse.

But, according to critics, All-Star appearances should be awarded by merit, not reputation. And thus, based on his qualifications and offensive output, it is understandable to see why Perez shouldn’t deserve an AL All-Star nod in 2018.

Salvy has thrown out 43 percent of runners stealing, the 2nd best mark in the AL.

Why Perez deserves an All-Star berth…

As an offensive lynchpin in the Royals lineup, Perez has been disappointing. As a fantasy player, Perez has been disappointing. There’s no question about that. However, baseball is more than just offense and how much a player impacts fantasy statistical categories. If it was only about that, then there wouldn’t be a vote, MLB would just pick the top guys based on wRC+ and WAR and not think twice about it.

When it comes to judging a baseball player completely for an All-Star berth, his defensive ability also comes into play, and by most advanced metrics, Salvy is one of the best in the American League. His defense and ability to save runs as a catcher is a big reason why he deserves a spot on the AL All-Star roster this year.

When it comes to caught stealing percentage (i.e. the percentage of runners he throws out trying to steal a base), Perez is at 43 percent, the second-best mark in the American League (behind the Angels Martin Maldanado who has a 48 percent caught stealing rate). He also has the second fewest bases stolen against him with 16, a sign of the respect for Perez’s arm from opposing teams (Thus affirming point 1 from above). Furthermore, in addition to saving runs on the basepaths, Perez also prevents baserunners from advancing, as he has only three passed balls this year, which ties him for fewest in the American League with the Blue Jays’ Russell Martin. (Thus affirming point 2 from above.)

(The passed balls category is where he and Maldanado deviate, as the Angels catcher actually leads the AL in passed balls of qualifying catchers with 10 this year.)

Perez’s advanced numbers are even better, as you can see in the graph below (this too was compiled from Fangraphs, originally).

As the numbers demonstrate, he leads in defensive runs saved above average (DEF) and stolen-base prevention (rSB) of qualified American League catchers with marks of 8.5 and 4, respectively. And thus, while one can question Perez’s offensive merits this season, his defensive prowess is not debatable. Salvy has been unquestionably one of the, if not the, best defensive catcher in the American League so far in 2018.

That statement alone merits Salvy a spot in this year’s All-Star game in the Nation’s Capital.

Salvy deserves this All-Star berth for himself and Royals fans, despite what some critics may say…

What are my final thoughts on Salvy?

Perez undoubtedly is hitting a crossroad in his career. Offensively, he probably is on the decline and is what he is: a free-swinging hitter who will hit home runs, but will strike out too much, ground out too much and walk too little to really be beyond average. His advanced numbers, especially in the area of plate discipline (as Melchior of Rotographs pointed out), aren’t promising and considering he’s going to turn 30, he’s not at an age where he can really revamp his approach. Sure, he may get a little better possibly in the next year or two, but it’s likely that Perez will be a 0.15-0.25 BB/K ratio guy for the rest of his career (meaning there won’t be much difference between his average and OBP). Longtime batting habits, especially for guys who have played in the Majors and had as much success as Salvy, are hard to break.

That doesn’t mean Royals fans should like Salvy any less or shouldn’t appreciate the value he brings to this Royals team. He’s one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and his leadership in the locker room can’t be overstated. The guy brings joy to the ballpark and gives the Royals a likable face to a nationwide audience, something not every club in the league can boast. Yes, maybe he’s not statistically the best guy for the All-Star game. But, baseball fans are going to be a lot more entertained with Salvy in the AL dugout than a Jonathan Lucroy or Mike Zunino.

Salvy deserves his All-Star spot. The Royals deserve to enjoy his infectious smile and superb defensive ability in the All-Star game in D.C., especially after this tire-fire of a season thus far.

The Kansas City Royals ended the “first half” of the 2018 season much like they started: by getting the crap kicked out of them by Chicago White Sox (and I say first half because technically it is beyond “half” numerically, but games before the All-Star Break are officially considered the first half, regardless of the number; confusing I know, but I didn’t create this obviously flawed system). As we enter the All-Star break, the Royals are 27-68 through 95 games, which makes them officially the worst team in baseball going into the Mid-Summer Classic (the Baltimore Orioles surpassed them after a 1-0 win over the Texas Rangers on July 15th, which put their record at 28-69). To make matters worse, not only is this Royals team one of the worst in baseball currently, but they could be the worst Royals team in the 50-year history of the club. (What a great way to celebrate such an anniversary, right?)

For many Royals fans, the ghosts of 2004 and 2005 seemed to be a distant memory after such a period of success from 2013-2017. In the five-year stretch, the Royals won 80 games or more each season, made the playoffs and World Series twice (2014 and 2015), and added the second World Series championship in the club’s history to their mantle in 2015 (in addition to their one in 1985 where they beat I-70 rival St. Louis). Yes, the Royals were a small market club. Yes, they didn’t have the payroll of the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox. But, it was widely thought that the Royals had set a foundation for various levels of success for years to come.

Oh, how misguided and incorrect Royals fans were.

The poisonous brew of players leaving the club in free agency (Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer), poor free agent signings (Ian Kennedy and Brandon Moss), and a lackluster farm system that had been gutted by mid-season trades (Sean Manaea going to Oakland in the Ben Zobrist Trade) and prospects failing to live up to expectations the past few seasons (Kyle Zimmer and Bubba Starling) has resulted in this season being the nightmare Royals fans were dreading at the conclusion of the 2017 campaign. Not only are the Royals the worst team in baseball now, but they are actually outpacing the 2005 club in losses at this point as well.

By the All-Star break in 2005, the Royals were 30-57 after 87 games (due to the season starting later than this year).

Yep, that’s right: the 2005 team was three wins better than the current Royals by this time of the season (and in 8 fewer games to boot). To make matters worse, for the Royals to tie that putrid 2005 squad, they have to to go 29-38 for the remainder of the season, which means they would have to win at least 43 percent of their remaining 67 games. To compare, in the first half, the Royals only won 28 percent of their 95 games.

To put it lightly, Kylie Jenner winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 would seem like an easier and more plausible task than the Royals tying or surpassing the 2005 Royals’ 56 wins. If the Royals duplicate their win percentage in the second half, they would only go 19-48, which would result in a record of 46-116. So, as you can see, the Royals would have to make up 10 games, just to even tie, which seems like an incredible feat, especially when one considers the trade deadline is July 31st. It is entirely possible there will be one to a few players on the current roster missing come August, hence making the team even weaker down the stretch.

So what should the Royals’ strategy be? What should Moore and manager Ned Yost due to avoid history and the moniker of “Worst Team in Royals History?” Here are a few “strategies” the Royals could take that might have an effect on their fortunes after the All-Star break.

The Royals could keep playing veterans like Alcides Escobar, and hope they turn it around in the second half.

Strategy #1: Keep the Vets, Play to Win

It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Royals by the trade deadline are going to part ways with Mike Moustakas, and it seems highly likely that they will also part with Lucas Duda and/or Whit Merrifield to help give a contending team an offensive boost down the stretch. And it makes sense. The Royals are going nowhere, and they need to re-stock their farm system, which was ranked near the bottom in the Majors by nearly every publication of note. To trade some established stars for prospect depth at the deadline is a proven strategy that has worked for many clubs in years past (the Oakland A’s are masters of this approach).

But, teams these days value their prospects more than ever, and it is possible that the Royals may not get much in return for some of their current players. After all, Moustakas didn’t field much interest in free agency last off-season (hence him still being on the Royals), and while he’s having a solid season (19 home runs, 58 RBI, .250 average, and a .775 OPS), he has been overshadowed by Manny Machado when it comes to trade talks. Duda is a big bat, but he’s going through a down season at the plate and is a defensive liability, making him useless on a National League team. And while Merrifield offers position versatility and is a threat with the bat and on the basepaths, he won’t be a free agent until 2023, and he’ll be turning 30 next year, not an age where players of his skill set typically get better.

So with that being known, Moore may say “screw it” to all offers and just let it ride on the vets, and hope that they can stay healthy and turn around this season. The positive? Well, the Royals certainly would have a better chance to win with Merrifield and Moustakas and Duda in the lineup for the rest of the 2018 season as they have shown glimpses of success this year and in previous seasons. The negative? The veteran strategy would also employ vets such as Alcides Escobar, who has a negative-1.8 WAR, the worst mark on the team, as well as Kennedy and Jason Hammel in the rotation, who each have a 5.13 and 6.15 ERA, respectively.

Yost is a loyal, player-friendly manager, and if given the chance, he would trot Moustakas, Merrifield, Duda, and Escobar in the infield every day until the last game of the season, regardless of their performance. So the decision to employ or not employ this strategy would rest on Moore, who would need to trade at least one of these vets to take the lineup card out of Yost’s hands.

Youngsters like Jorge Bonifacio (center) playing with veterans like Whit Merrifield (left) and Mike Moustakas could be a recipe for success.

Strategy #2: Play the youngsters, but in the right spots

We’re starting to see this strategy a bit in July, as Yost has started to depend on Adalberto Mondesi at SS rather than Escobar. (Though I do not get why he’s playing Escobar out of position in the outfield; he’s the worst hitter on the team…why is he continuing to play?) He’s also been giving Hunter Dozier, and Jorge Bonifacio at-bats as well, a sign that the organization wants to start seeing which “prospects” will have a future with the big league club, and which ones will be traded or triple-A fodder in the next couple of years.

But, going all out on the youngsters carries some risk. Some of the young players have responded, such as Mondesi, who has finished the first half with a .714 OPS. Some still leave a lot to be desired, like Dozier, who was touted as a strong-hitting, corner infielder, but is only hitting .211 with a .604 OPS and has negative-1.0 WAR, the second-worst mark on the team. So, it would be wise to balance out lineups with young guns and veterans on a day to day or series to series basis.

Want to start Mondesi, Dozier, and perhaps Cheslor Cuthbert, when he comes back from the DL (or perhaps Nicky Lopez, who may get called up from Omaha soon), in the infield? Well, make sure Merrifield is in the lineup to stabilize things. The same strategy applies to the outfield. Going with Bonifacio and Rosell Herrera? Then Gordo will be the left fielder to provide veteran mentorship to the lineup as well as in the field. The same works in the rotation, as Danny Duffy could be a veteran mentor for young starters like Brad Keller and Trevor Oaks (who should get called up again sometime in the second half).

The strategy carries a little more risk, since many of the young players on this roster are pretty unproven, and as stated before, they come from a system that isn’t highly regarded by any means. That being said, these lineups offer a little more upside than a “veteran only” strategy, and could also provide some hope for the future for Royals fans.

The Royals could go all in on their prospects at the big league level, like Adalberto Mondesi at SS.

Strategy #3: Go all in on youth…regardless of the result

The Royals could do the equivalent of the “blow it up” NBA model. Moore and Yost could say “You know what? Screw the veterans! Who cares if they won us a title in 2015! Let’s rebuild now!” Escobar? Now a benchwarmer. Duda and Gordon? Spot starters. Hell, even give Salvador Perez a couple of days more off than usual so we can see what Cam Gallagher can do.

The strategy works in two ways:

The young players get at-bats and experience, and if there’s anything that makes a younger player better at the Major League level, it’s more at-bats and experience. (It’s just common sense, but it’s amazing how some fans don’t understand this basic concept of “more experience = better development; less experience = less development.”)

And if the young players suck, well, the Royals get a high first-round pick, and they know for sure who to build around for the future, and who not to sooner rather than later. When employing strategy #2, the problem is teams can get hung up on players longer than they want because the player is not getting enough at-bats to make a definitive decision. However, if you give 400-500 at-bats to a young player in a season, and he is clearly bad, well…it’s easier to cut ties because that is a pretty large sample size.

So there are some strong benefits to the “go young and let it ride” approach. Nonetheless, it’s a strategy that also carries a ton of risk (definitely the most of the three) and could alienate the fanbase more than the box office would like (i.e. it could kill ticket sales; the Royals still rank 11 out of 15 in the AL in attendance, which is a lot better than the 2005 squad). While the Royals need to rebuild and start looking to the future, the typical Royals fan wants to see faces he or she remembers from the 2015 team. So that means seeing Gordo, and Salvy, and Escobar for better or worse. Maybe they’re not the same players they were three seasons ago, but at least seeing their faces brings up good memories and nostalgia over copious amounts of Miller Lite in the bleacher seats.

And fans buying more Miller Lite is good for business at Kauffman stadium.

Manager Ned Yost will have to make some interesting decisions to help turn around this club in the second half.

What strategy is the best for the Royals?

Personally, from an economic standpoint, number two is obviously the most logical. There are some players worth playing and keeping on this roster. Gordon deserves to play as long as he wants as a Royal (he’s earned it by helping them win a title and has been loyal to the organization through thick and thin), and Merrifield is a gritty player who provides a spark to this club and probably wouldn’t get what he’s worth on the trade market. But, there are a lot of veterans who need to go. As unexpectedly great as Moustakas has been this year, his value will never be higher, and the Royals need to get something in return to help stock their Royals system (after all, they received three prospects for Kelvin Herrera; I’m sure the Royals can get more for Moose). Escobar’s defense and timely hitting was appreciated in the 2014 and 2015 playoff runs, but his time as a serviceable MLB player is up and Mondesi deserves his shot. And while Duda brings a veteran bat to the lineup, I would rather see Dozier get a full shot at the position to see if he can be a big-league player, or if he’s simply a “four-A” prospect.

Overall, it’s likely the Royals will probably employ an overall #2 strategy as well. (I mean, really, how could you not? It’s the most practical strategy.) But the big question will be this: Will Moore and Yost’s strategy be closer to #1 or closer to #3? Will they still be loyal to the vets? Or will they ride their fortunes a little more on the young guns, with “low-key” hopes to secure the No. 1 pick if those youngsters don’t pan out?

I think Royals fans will have a good idea of their choice in strategy come August 1st.

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