Heavyweight boxing & mixed martial arts ratings and commentary

September 2009

September 27, 2009

The Vitali Klitschko - Chris Arreola WBC heavyweight title fight followed the expected script on Saturday night, with the taller and more skilled Klitschko fending off Arreola, who was unable to connect meaningfully for most of the fight and was prevented from continuing after the 10th round. If anything there was less exchange between the two, with Vitali having adopted a Wladimir-like strategy of not getting hit rather than mixing it up with his opponent as he has in the past.

For almost the entire fight, Vitali's strategy remained the same. As Arreola came at him, he would jab to the face; if that didn't stop him Vitali would move back out of range; and if Arreola managed to get in close Klitscko would clinch. Whenever Arreola stayed at range, Klitschko would pepper him with a variety of shots. There were very few times when this pattern was disrupted, perhaps in the fourth and eighth round for brief moments.

The judges in attendence scored it 99-91, 99-91, and 100-89 after 10 rounds; I had Vitali ahead 99-92.

Round One: This round set up the basic template for the fight: Arreola moving forward, trying to press the action, and getting hit in the face for his trouble. Klitschko 10-9.

Round Two: After feeling out Arreola for one round Vitali started to unload more, as if he were testing the possibility for an early knockout. But Arreola kept coming, lured in by Vitali's guard which was very low, close to his waist. Klitschko 10-9 (20-18).

Round Three: Same as round two, except that Arreola might have gotten in his first good punch of the fight, while of course absorbing dozens of hits to the face. Klitschko 10-9 (30-27).

Round Four: Arreola had his first good flurry of the fight early in the round, and for the rest of the round Klitschko was less active. Arreola showed he wasn't going down early, and was still strong despite the damage he took the first few rounds. Vitali may have been surprised at Arreola's ability to take punches, and showed the first signs of tiring. Arreola 10-9 (Klitschko 39-37).

Round Five: Klitschko bounced back from round four with another dominant round, as Arreola was no doubt disappointed that his best shots had little effect. Klitschko had just minor scrapes on his face compared to reddening all over Arreola's. Chris' corner told him to keep moving in and pressing the action, to which Arreola protested "yeah but he keeps running away man!" Klitschko 10-9 (49-46).

Round Six: Arreola gets in a few shots here and there, but Klitschko's game plan remains intact, avoiding and pre-emptively punching to keep him at distance. Klitschko 10-9 (59-55).

Round Seven: Arreola is getting very frustrated by this time, and trying to charge in more quickly to get inside, at which point Klitschko was clinching. Arreola tried to get in some body blows while in the clinch and came close to kidney punching a few times. Klitschko 10-9 (69-64).

Round Eight: With the score on the cards clearly against him, an unlikely knockout was Arreola's only hope. He showed good stamina this round and connected on his two best punches of the fight, but Vitali kept his composure, tying up Arreola as he made it inside, and fighting back whenever Arreola scored. 10-10 Tie (Klitschko 79-74).

Round Nine: Like the fifth round following Arreola's other good round, Klitschko re-established dominance quickly in round nine. For the first time Arreola was stopping his forward movement and even backing up when he was hit as the cumulative damage took its toll. Arreola was getting a profuse nosebleed between rounds by this point. Klitschko 10-9 (89-83).

Round Ten: Klitschko avoided Arreola's weakening attacks and punished him more in another one-sided round. Arreola was doing a lot more standing in front of Klitscko and the question was not if he could get a surprise KO in the last two rounds but rather would he last the distance. Shortly after the end of the round the referee called the fight, mainly because there was no protest from his corner who didn't see any good coming from two more rounds. Klitschko 10-9 (99-92)

Not too much in the fight surprised boxing observers. Many thought Arreola had a chance to win, and most figured he'd be able to connect more than he did based on Vitali's normal style, but it seemed that Vitali had learned some strategy from Wladimir's dominance of Ruslan Chagaev, a fight that had a similar trajectory and ending. He did exactly what Wladimir did: stay out of his opponent's range, jump back to maintain that range, and tie him up when he got close, all the while gradually wearing him down with punches. The main difference was that Vitali has a wider arsenal of stronger punches to use than Wlad, and Arreola had more height and reach than Chagaev, but the end result was similar.

Arreola showed little sign of tiring during the fight despite the often asked questions about his weight and stamina. Though Arreola could have been in better shape it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome, and it wasn't his weight or the pace of the fight that slowed him down by the end, it was the damage from relentless punches to the face. On that note Arreola showed a very good chin, but his defense remains suspect. He tried to cover up a lot more than he did in previous fights but Klitschko was too accurate and powerful.

Vitali Klitschko will solidify his #2 position in the SportsRatings Heavyweight boxing rankings while Arreola will fall only to #10 as the division is weak beyond the top six. In the post-fight interview Arreola vowed to be back; let's hope that he takes a cue from Eddie Chambers and gets in top shape. He also needs to fight some better competition, perhaps tackling a few seasoned foes still in the top 25. It was clear he'd never faced anyone close to Klitschko's strength and skill, and because he couldn't bully him he couldn't control the fight. Arreola needs to be in better shape and learn how to fight against his equals before he can again challenge for a belt.

September 24, 2009

No heavyweight fight this year will be bigger in America than the bout on Saturday, September 26th when Vitali Klitschko puts his WBC belt on the line against Chris Arreola in Los Angeles.

Klitschko, ranked #2 by SportsRatings to his brother Wladimir, faces #7 Arreola, the first American to fight a Klitschko on U.S. soil since Calvin Brock lost to Wladimir in November, 2006. Surprisingly, Vitali has never fought an American in America: he fought Lennox Lewis (UK), Kirk Johnson (Canada), Corrie Sanders (South Africa), and Danny Williams (UK) in successive fights in the United States, and beat Jamaican Ricardo Kennedy in Miami in 1998. Meanwhile brother Wlad fought recent defenses against Ray Austin, Lamon Brewster, Tony Thompson, and Hasim Rahman all in Germany.

Styles Comparison

The fight features two big punchers with remarkable KO percentages. Vitali has scored a knockout in 36 of his 37 wins, meaning he wins by KO 97.3% of the time (Timo Hoffman was the only decision). His two losses have come on injury stoppages to Chris Byrd and Lennox Lewis. Arreola has had only one foe go the distance (Andrew Greeley in 2005); in 24 of 25 fights (96%) he's scored a stoppage. The two other contests were disqualifications, including the win over Chazz Witherspoon (currently # 28) which could have been ruled a KO. Arreola has a relentless style where he sometimes lunges forth punching with his entire body and keeps coming like a juggernaut, while Klitschko remains squared and upright as he delivers devastating punches with his long reach. Klitscho is 6' 7" and around 250 pounds. Arreola stands nearly 6' 4" and
his weight could be anywhere from 240 to 260. Much has been written
about Arreola's weight as it has increased over the years and most
would say the leaner he comes in, the better.

Both fighters can hit hard. At the same time, both are willing to take shots themselves. Despite this Vitali has never been on the canvas, even after taking a beating from Lennox Lewis. Arreola, on the other hand, was down in round two against Travis Walker (though completely unhurt) before scoring a third round TKO (interestingly, Walker is rumored to have floored Klitschko when sparring in 2005). It's certain that Vitali's chin has been tested about as much as possible, while Arreola hasn't faced the same level of competition.

Vegas Line/Odds

Klitschko is a heavy favorite to win, with lines running at -600 (place $600 to win $100). Arreola is a -400 to -450 underdog (place $100 to win $400 or $450). Translated, this means that the oddsmakers and bettors give Klitschko about a 75%-85% chance to win, with the odds also favoring the fight ending before the middle of the seventh round.

Going back to the time of his first loss (due to a shoulder injury), Vitali has faced 9 fighters in the top 30, and six that are still ranked in the top 100 to this day. His biggest fight was of course the controversial loss to world champion Lennox Lewis, who hasn't fought in over five years and is now unranked. Klitschko has fought only twice since 2005, but both foes were in the top ten and are still in the top 15, while the three fighters he beat after the Lewis loss are still in the top 100.

Note that in the time that Klitscho has had just two fights, Arreola has fought 12 ranked fighters, though only one is still in the top 100. But he's beaten seven fighters that were ranked in the top 100 at the time of the fight, including four in a row in late 2006-mid 2007. He had three easy opponents before dominating Chazz Witherspoon in what is still Chazz's only loss. Interestingly, though Arreola was criticized for weighing 255 against McCline, that's exactly what he weighed against Jenkins in November, 2005. During the stretch where he beat Norris, Wills, Graham, and Tann in a total of 22 rounds, he weighed between 230 and 240, and he was at 239 for the Witherspoon fight.

Arreola's Chances For the Upset

Clearly Arreola's lack of top-notch competition is the main reason for being the underdog; he hasn't proven that he can beat a fighter ranked in the top 25. Though he almost certainly would beat most of today's top 25, he just doesn't have the experience of being in the ring with a very top-notch heavyweight let alone one of the current era's best. Other factors: his defense is poor; his stamina is untested, especially if he comes in at a higher weight; and he gives up height and reach. His willingness to take punches is seen to be his undoing against a hard puncher like Klitschko. The logic goes, if Travis Walker can give him an 8-count, what will Vitali do? If Chazz Witherspoon can deliver an "oh shit" jab (Arreola's words), how will Dr. Ironfist's jabs feel?

Arreola has a few intangibles in his favor. The crowd should be heavily on his side in Los Angeles. He hasn't shown as much in his fights—or hasn't had to—so if he has anything new up his sleeve Klitschko will be less prepared for it. Even at larger sizes Arreola is fairly quick for a big heavy, and his stamina is always questioned but hasn't let him down yet. His style—bulling his way into his opponent's space—is one that neither Klitschko has had to deal with very often, especially from a big, hard-hitting opponent. Arreola is a slugger and likes to "bang" so the fight should be a fun one to watch, but his main chance of an upset still comes from Klitschko himself. Vitali is 38 years old and has a track record of injuries. Some thought he didn't look as sharp against Gomez six months ago, and if he's slowed since then Arreola has an opportunity. It's an unfortunate truth, but Arreola's best chance counts on a decline in performance by Klitschko. Unless we see a dynamic Arreola (or an aged Klitschko) we haven't seen before, Vitali is the likely winner.

How it ends is anybody's guess. Depending on what strategy the fighters use the bout could be over very quickly, in a blaze in the first three rounds, a more measured but still frenetic pace leading to a mid-rounds KO, or in a late stoppage as one fighter doesn't rise from the chair. Common sense dictates that the longer the fight goes, the less likely Arreola is to win, especially by decision. Neither fighter has been knocked out, and both KO their opponents almost all the time, so something has to give. My guess is that Arreola scores his best shots early; weakens but holds on in the middle rounds; and Vitali takes a big lead on the cards late. Arreola should be able to make it to the end, though, in front of an adoring crowd. His best chance of winning comes early, and after the first few rounds the tone of the fight will be established; things won't get better for Arreola after that, so he has to take advantage if he's doing well and build a big lead. I see Vitali Klitschko the probable winner, by a card of around 116-111.

Rankings Ramifications

Arreola wouldn't take the SportsRatings belt with a win, but it
would put him #2 to Wlad Klitschko. Neither would Vitali jump to #1 for
beating Arreola, as Wlad is far ahead in points after his brother's
four-year layoff through most of 2005-2008. Lose, however, and he would
fall to #7, meaning the fighters would essentially switch places.
Arreola wouldn't fall as far with a loss, as there's quite a big gap
between #7 and #8 due to the relative derth of strong heavyweights at
the moment. Arreola will remain in the top ten regardless of the
outcome.