This blog is intended for me to share my views, findings, and experiences with issues related to instructional design & performance. It is a forum for other graduate students, professionals and anyone who is interested to share.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

One of the methods that was mentioned in the email that was sent was the Delphi Method. What is this Delphi Method?

From the readings this method is primarily used for forecasting and decision making. Like a lot of other research and technological innovations it began in the military. In 1946 a Project called RAND (short for Research and Development)

Definition: The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback.

Premise:Human judgment (Expert Knowledge) is acceptable in fields that have no yet developed scientific laws to make decisions.

A little Extra Information

The word Delphi is associated with Greek Mythology. Delphi was an Oracle, where the intermediaries would give forecast and advice to the gods. However, Helmer and Dalkey the founders of the method, would rather than the method not be associated with the Greek Oracle. But I guess that’s life names stick J

Advantages

-Experts make decisions

-Anonymity allows free formation of opinions that the social interaction ofusual group discussion may inhibited

-Experts who geographically dispersed can deal systematically in complex task and problem solving.

-useful in answering one, specific, single-dimension question

How is it done?

In a Nutshell: a series of questionnaires are sent either by mail or via computerized systems, to a pre-selected group of experts. These questionnaires are designed to elicit and develop individual responses to the problems posed and to enable the experts to refine their views as the group’s work progresses in accordance with the assigned task. The group interaction is anonymous.

Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.

Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.

Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)

Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise

Questions to ask before considering using the Delphi Method.

What kind of group communication process is desirable in order to explore the problem at hand?

Who are the people with expertise on the problem and where are they located?

What are the alternative techniques available and what results can reasonably be expected from their application?

Disadvantages/critiques

-Unscientific

-Illusory expertise: some of the experts may be poor forecasters. The expert tends to be a specialist and thus views the forecast in a setting which is not the most appropriate one.

-The simplification urge: Experts tend to judge the future of events in isolation from other developments. A holistic view of future events where change has had a pervasive influence cannot be visualized easily. At this point cross-impact analysis is of some help.

-Format bias: it should be recognized that the format of the questionnaire may be unsuitable to some potential societal participants.

My Opinion: I am reading a book called Renaissance E-learning for another course and it has a section of quotes that were made against the realization of certain inventions that exist today. Most of the quotes were made by experts in the field. Example, “I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall. 1957

This goes to show that sometimes experts are not necessarily good forecasters. However, I like the fact that it’s anonymous and it brings together the opinions’ of experts from several geographical locations. It has merits but, as with most Data collection methods should not be used alone and should be used with caution.

I think even though it's used primarily for forecasting it can also be used to develop solutions to complex organizational problems.

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About Me

I am a graduate student at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville (SIUE). I am from the beautiful Island of Jamaica.......
Ok enough of the formal verbiage, I am really a very hard to confine to one adjective or dimension person. I am open minded, not willing to be the vacuum of everything that is presented to be. I follow my dreams & see each challenge as an empowerment opportunity.
I have a passion for teaching and learning, anything that involves communicating information, performance, motivation....you get the drift.

A New Outlook

The purpose of this blog initially was to achieve a grade for a class with the intent that I will acquire a body of knowledge about Performance Improvement. It did work to an extent, but after awhile I was just doing it because I needed to pass my course. What made it worst was the fact that I had no committed audience. We were instructed to read our peers' blogs but I guess everybody was overwhelmed either they read and did not comment or they just could not be bothered to read (me included). Of course the instructor was a committed viewer, but this was not enough.

This highlights a very important aspect of learning; it is best when self initiated. This explains why organizations that facilitate informal learning excel above the rest. When people are naturally interested in a task or subject matter they are motivated to search for information. Thus, they empower themselves and by extension the company.

Now that my course has finished and I have subscribed to some really good blogs my self, I think I can continue to contribute to the knowledge sharing. I have garnered a lot from reading other blogs and have been motivated by the fact that some creators actually respond to the comments of others.

I decided to wear the shoe of “blog reader” before I wore the shoe of “blog creator”. One of the turn offs for me is when I visit a blog and see that the last post was a very long time ago, it means that the creator is no longer interested, so why should I the reader be bothered to even read the old post, that information can surely be found some where else. However, when the posts are current and engaging I want to visit, not only visit but subscribe.

Being a graduate student, having 2 years full time employment and 2 and 1/2 years internship experience, it is my intention to share my thoughts and knowledge that I have garnered and also to learn from others.