[Quote No.28262] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Please consider these newspaper headlines:] - Huge expenditures from a massively expensive war are coming home to roost; - The U.S. economy and stock market are stalling; - Unemployment is rising; - [In an attempt to pull the economy out of its funk,] Washington is printing money [like there's no tomorrow]; - Inflation [our cost of living] has begun rising; - Oil and gasoline prices are at all-time highs; - Food and raw materials are in [increasingly] short supply and prices are soaring worldwide; - Gold and silver prices are on a tear...
Have I left anything out?... Wait. You think I'm talking about TODAY'S headlines [in 2008]?...
Sorry. No. I was reading the above headlines from 30 years ago - in the mid-1970s!
The debt from the Vietnam War was hitting home. The term 'stagflation' was being coined to describe the new environment of slow (or negative) economic growth plus inflation. Washington was printing money out of thin air to pay its bills. Inflation was accelerating. And oil, gas, food, and just about everything else under the sun (especially gold and silver) were roaring higher. [By learning about the past, it is possible to see similarities in today's business cycle stage to those from the past and then these can be used to guide investment behaviour.]" - Clayton MakepeaceAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28272] Need Area: Money > Invest "I'm an old-school banker [concerned about managing risk as much as making a profit for shareholders, staff and customers]. I don't think you should do something [structured products, including collateralized debt obligations and interest rate derivatives] you don't understand, hoping there's somebody at the bottom of the organization who does. The whole thing didn't make common sense to me. You're going to get all your money back, or you're going to get none of your money back. I said, 'Wow! If this ever went against us, we could take some serious losses here!' " - Edmund ClarkChief Executive Officer of the Canada's third-biggest bank, the Toronto-Dominion Bank. He holds a master's degree and doctorate in economics from Harvard University but felt that after meeting experts with doctorates in mathematics for several hours each week to educate himself on the credit and equity products that were being traded by the group in 2004-5 that the business was too risky for a bank that relied on consumer lending and money management for about 80 percent of profit. It took a year and cost 200 million dollars to exit this part of the business but saved the bank billions in write downs in the 2007-8 sub-prime crisis when the structured products market collapsed. This is the kind of excellent risk management skill that is required of CEOs and successful investors.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28276] Need Area: Money > Invest "[When thinking about the inflationary tail of the business cycle consider these comments from 2008:] Weakening U.S. consumer demand undercuts the ability of producers to pass on cost increases to consumers [reducing margins as well as unit volume sales and therefore profit], but inflationary pressures are building throughout the production chain; thus, some mild pass-through to core consumer inflation may be inevitable. However, thanks to seasonal adjustments, the large share of falling housing prices and the exclusion of food and energy prices from core inflation indices, the official U.S. inflation figures look benign compared to what consumers actually experience in the U.S. and the rest of the world. EU and emerging markets suffer higher inflation figures due to the inclusion of processed foods and the higher share of food and energy in core consumer baskets. Diesel, the fuel of choice outside the U.S., fetches higher prices than gasoline. These countries are also more susceptible to wage hikes than the U.S. due to stronger labor unions and policies. Fortunately, EU inflation looks likely to have peaked and will moderate (albeit only slightly) this year on base effects. Emerging markets, on the other hand, face an uphill battle with inflation as diesel, the fuel of choice for industrial and some consumer applications, fetches higher prices than gasoline with the oil-diesel crack spread at all-time highs.
Granted, inflation today [2008] in developed countries is far from the double-digit Great Inflation of the 1970s - second round effects have yet to appear globally (with exceptions such as Germany and the Middle Eastern Gulf). Nonetheless, though the lack of second round effects may keep current inflation trends as temporary, it makes them painful because wages fail to keep up with higher consumer prices. Moreover, trade barriers and hoarding threaten to turn a demand-side shock into a supply-side shock to food and fuel prices, sustaining higher inflation for longer. Regardless of the source of shock and the dissipation of the food price shock, a continued rise in oil prices - despite slowing economic growth - can render the feeling of stagflation among consumers, if not in official statistics. Perceived inflation, corroborated by statistics or not, can feed into inflation [wage] expectations that drive prices higher (including oil futures prices) and, eventually, consumer demand lower. Furthermore, developed countries are not immune to inflation in developing countries if developing countries pass on cost increases through export prices and maintain a high level of oil demand growth." - Nouriel RoubiniFamous economistAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28301] Need Area: Money > Invest "As many investors have learned the hard way, companies cannot double earnings each year ad infinitum. Just as a pendulum swings back toward the center, exceptional growth rates eventually descend toward the normal range. Experts use a fancy term to describe this process: reversion to the mean." - John NeffFamous value investor who, during thirty-one years as portfolio manager of Vanguard’s Windsor and Gemini Funds, beat the market a remarkable twenty-two times while posting a fifty-seven-fold increase in an initial stake – making Windsor the largest mutual fund in the United States in the process. He wrote a book about his methods called, ‘John Neff on Investing’.
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[Quote No.28302] Need Area: Money > Invest "On the other side of inflection points, frenzies [booms] end, [bust and economic business] fundamentals prevail, and every tub sits on its own bottom [rather than rising in price just because every other company is, regardless of whether it is performing well or not]." - John NeffFamous value investor who, during thirty-one years as portfolio manager of Vanguard’s Windsor and Gemini Funds, beat the market a remarkable twenty-two times while posting a fifty-seven-fold increase in an initial stake – making Windsor the largest mutual fund in the United States in the process. He wrote a book about his methods called, ‘John Neff on Investing’.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28307] Need Area: Money > Invest "Just think of it [share investing] as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
When Warren lectures at business schools, he says, 'I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with o­nly 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches ‑ representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And o­nce you'd punched through the card, you couldn't make any more investments at all.'
He says, 'Under those rules, you'd really think carefully about what you did and you'd be forced to load up o­n what you'd really thought about. So you'd do so much better'.
" - Charlie MungerHighly successful value share investor and business partner of Warren Buffett.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28309] Need Area: Money > Invest "Another very simple effect I very seldom see discussed either by investment managers or anybody else is the effect of taxes. If you're going to buy something which compounds for 30 years at 15% per annum and you pay o­ne 35% tax at the very end, the way that works out is that after taxes, you keep 13.3% per annum.
In contrast, if you bought the same investment, but had to pay taxes every year of 35% out of the 15% that you earned, then your return would be 15% minus 35% of 15% or only 9.75% per year compounded. So the difference there is over 3.5%.And what 3.5% does to the numbers over long holding periods like 30 years is truly eye-opening. If you sit back for long, long stretches in great companies, you can get a huge edge from nothing but the way that income taxes work.
Even with a 10% per annum investment, paying a 35% tax at the end gives you 8.3% after taxes as an annual compounded result after 30 years. In contrast, if you pay the 35% each year instead of at the end, your annual result goes down to 6.5%.So you add nearly 2% of after-tax return per annum if you o­nly achieve an average return by historical standards from common stock investments in companies with tiny dividend payout ratios... There are huge advantages for an individual to get into a position where you make a few great investments and just sit back and wait: You're paying less to brokers. You're listening to less nonsense. And if it works, the governmental tax system gives you an extra 1, 2 or 3 percentage points per annum compounded." - Charlie MungerHighly successful value investor and business partner of Warren Buffett.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28325] Need Area: Money > Invest "Price versus value:- Let’s say you have a passive part interest in an unlisted business. What happens in the stock market would have no impact on either the profitability or the value of your business. World events, economic forecasts, movements in local and international stock markets and commentary by media commentators who confuse price with value would have no impact on your business. It would continue merrily on its way, oblivious to extraneous factors, emotive influences and sentiment. You would be concerned only with its profitability and future prospects.
Unless you needed to sell, or received an offer, you are unlikely to spend any time figuring what your interest in the business was worth. The fact that the price of your business is not quoted daily in the media is of no consequence. In the same way that a high price does not increase its value, a low price does not lessen it. Of course, if someone came along and made what appeared to be a generous offer, you might consider selling if it exceeded your estimate of value and your money could be more profitably employed elsewhere. Conversely, if someone made a low-ball offer, you would not automatically assume that the value of your business had declined.
Price and value are two different things. Prices are only important when buying or selling. If you buy into sound businesses with superior attributes at a fair price, price aberrations, whether determined by sound judgment or by fear, greed and emotional sentiment, will neither add nor detract from your wealth...
While value does not progress smoothly, its determination is based on the factual business performance rather than unrelated extraneous issues that govern the actions of those who unwittingly contribute to the rich forum of opportunity we call the “stock market”.
So the next time the market is flooded by uninformed comments don’t get caught up in the hype. [Learn to use a rational, business-like methodology to value your shares as a business person would if they owned the whole company and ignore the emotionally driven 'market'.]" - Roger MontgomeryRoger Montgomery is the Managing Director of Clime Asset Management and Chairman of Clime Capital Ltd (ASX Code: CAM). Both companies use the StockVal online share valuation tool to identify and rationally value the businesses they invest in.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28326] Need Area: Money > Invest "Value investing is not rocket science. It does not require you to have a stratospheric IQ. What you do require, however, is the right temperament and the ability to understand and apply a few sound, time-proven investment principles...
The principles are not set in concrete, nor are they a set of rules that must be strictly adhered to. What they do provide is a superior investment philosophy that acts as a framework within which you can quickly identify good investments, and just as importantly, avoid low-quality businesses. Unfortunately for the value investor, there are many of the latter and not so many of the former. However, by exercising patience and waiting for the right business at the right price, you too can invest your hard earned dollars with a high degree of confidence." - Roger MontgomeryRoger Montgomery is the Managing Director of Clime Asset Management and Chairman of Clime Capital Ltd (ASX Code: CAM). Both companies use the StockVal online share valuation tool to identify and value the businesses they invest in.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28327] Need Area: Money > Invest "Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking that the stock market is anything but a great big auction arena where many individuals place bids and offers to buy and sell small interests in businesses. In the great auction arena, these small interests are known as stocks or shares. Your goal is to buy shares at attractive prices to build a portfolio of quality businesses, which hopefully you will be able to hold forever. Once you are a part owner, I believe the only time you should ever consider selling your partial interest is when the quality of your business is no longer perceived as being attractive. It’s that simple." - Roger MontgomeryManaging Director of Australian funds manager, Clime Asset Management and Chairman of Clime Capital Ltd (ASX Code: CAM). Both companies use the StockVal online share valuation tool to identify and value the businesses they invest in.
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[Quote No.28328] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Here's an interesting exercise to see the effects of inflation especially regarding fuel price increases on the economy in 2008:] According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there were 135,399,945 passenger cars in the United States as of 2006. The owners of all those vehicles have had less money to spend as the price of gas has soared. What impact does this have on the economy - and on your investments? Let's do the math and find out.
Let's say the average driver drives 1,000 miles per month and gets 20 miles per gallon. That would mean each one is using 50 gallons of gas per month. According to the Department of Energy, the national gas price has gone up $0.62 on average in the past year. So the average driver has $31 (50 gallons times the $0.62 price increase) less per month to spend on items other than gas. This may not seem like a huge difference, but let's take the next step.
Multiply the number of cars (135,399,945) by $31 per month. That's an additional $4,197,398,295 going into our gas tanks each month instead of getting used for other purchases.
The U.S. is bordering on a recession, and gas is taking an additional $4.2 billion out of the economy each month. How long do you think gas prices can stay this high without the demand falling significantly?" - Rick PendergraftProfessional trader and investment analystAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28334] Need Area: Money > Invest "In the 2008 sub-prime credit crisis there was a lot of discussion about LIBOR. This is the London interbank offered rate, which sets the benchmark for 6 million U.S. mortgages and more than $350 trillion of derivatives and corporate bonds.
The Libor-setting process is conducted by the British Bankers' Association - BBA. It is an unregulated bank trade group which asks 16 member banks each day how much it would cost them to borrow from each other for 15 different periods ranging from overnight to one year, in currencies from dollars to euros and yen. It then calculates averages, throwing out the four highest and lowest quotes, and publishes them at about 11:30 a.m. in London. At the height of the sub-prime crisis and for a considerable time afterwards there was speculation that was later confirmed that many banks misled the British Bankers' Association regarding their rates in order to appear more financially stable than perhaps they were.
Therefore traders resorted to alternative measures for determining borrowing costs. One popular option became the overnight indexed swaps, which is a gauge of expectations for central bank rates. OIS rates have the advantage that they are set off the Fed funds effective rate, which is an overnight rate based on a volume-weighted average of trades that occur each trading day through the major brokers. There is no guesswork involved." - UnknownAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28336] Need Area: Money > Invest "[When someone offers to buy your business or shares on the market at a price that is fabulously above the value, it is often worth considering selling it to them, even though the business is still a wonderful business as this prime example from America shows:- Highly successful value share investor, Warren Buffett became even more famous when in the 1990's he said] '...regardless of price we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns.' [In 2004 however he observed,] 'I made a mistake in not selling several of our larger holdings during the Great Bubble.' [Perhaps referring to the point in time when one of his holdings Coca Cola had a price exceeded $80 per share and its 'intrinsic' value was between $22 and $35.]" - Warren BuffettOne of the richest men in the world and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28347] Need Area: Money > Invest "I think this is a pretty good strategy for life. If there's something distressing you [ie you've lost some money and there's nothing constructive that you can do about it], it's better to put it out of your mind [by distracting yourself], than get depressed or fret over it. As much as possible, it's best to block out the unhappy memories or the things that are going to upset you. [If something upsets you, set it down and regain your balance!]" - Alan WoodsAlan is a famous, professional gambler from Murwillumbah, Australia. He has travelled the world, winning and losing millions of dollars, as a professional world-class bridge player, high-rolling blackjack player, high-stakes sports bettor and a remarkably succesful market speculator.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28353] Need Area: Money > Invest "What's wrong with depending on the collective wisdom of the analysts who follow stocks day in and day out? If the majority of analysts say buy, shouldn't you buy? And when most say sell, shouldn't you sell (if you already hold the stock)... or at least not buy? If anybody knows whether a stock is good or not, they should, right?
All this makes so much sense. And it would be so easy to do. Which is why I hate to throw the idea to the dogs. But that's what it fully deserves. And I'll tell you why.
Analysts are incredibly biased. When they see a cup half-empty, they're known to shout 'buy'. Okay, that's forgivable. But not when they see a cup two-thirds empty. The frightful fact is this. About 40 percent of stocks go down in any given year. And the percentage of stocks that have 'sells'? Only five percent. As recently as the 90s, it was two percent.
That means a lot of stocks go down with either a 'hold' or 'buy' rating." - Andrew GordonDirector of the financial newsletter, 'Income'.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28356] Need Area: Money > Invest "The lessons from previous crises [share market busts] is that they can be long, the clean up costs can be high [which at first are not fully appreciated] and, in the worst ones, there were many false dawns, when at some stage it may have appeared the crisis was past the worst. [In a bear market, there are many false rallies with shouts of 'We've made it through and now it is all up from here.' However, at these times beware, because it is often like the Churchillian quote, 'We are at the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.']" - Gerard LyonsStandard Chartered's chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research. Quoted in 2008, after the first wave of problems due to the sub-prime loans crisis.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28388] Need Area: Money > Invest "Usually when inflation is rising dramatically at the end of a business cycle, and share prices begin to fall, you get a 'spin' cycle, where brokers and economists, seeing the writing on the wall for their jobs, try to talk the market up, without caring whose money they lose by their reckless, wishful predictions of business as usual. So beware this foolish talk and take great care, because the market always faces headwinds during these times due to interest rates rising to slow inflation, especially wage inflation expectations - namely people wanting more money for the same work to help them live at the same standard they enjoyed before the price of everything, especially commodities and energy rose dramatically which is a classic signal of an end to any booming business cycle. Next comes a period of slower growth, consolidation and even some contraction when the price of shares becomes more realistic and reasonable and value investors start buying great companies at great prices, laying the foundation for great future profits after the next business cycle boom starts." - Seymour@imagi-natives.comAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28389] Need Area: Money > Invest "The natural way with floats [IPOs - Initial Public offerings] is that they tend to be timed to benefit the sellers more than the buyers. So they sell shares in the company, while the business is doing well and the price of the shares will likely rise, at least in the short term, due to the market being notoriously short-term orientated and therefore only focused on recent good earnings despite the company's long term prospects and in this way the existing owners, investment bankers and brokers can sell their portion of shares and take bigger profits than they would at other more normal times. It is vital therefore that any float is very carefully evaluated and if there is any doubt, the wise investor should ignore it. While occasionally this will result in a missed opportunity, more often than not, it will save the investor a great deal of money and heartache." - Seymour@imagi-natives.comAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28405] Need Area: Money > Invest "[If you have an interest in understanding inflation better, here is an interesting extract:]
Adam Hamilton of ZealLLC.com reminds us that 'Inflation is purely and exclusively a monetary phenomenon', which doesn’t mean all that much by itself, but becomes much more horrifying when he adds that Money of Zero Maturity has been zooming. In case you were wondering, Money of Zero Maturity (MZM) is considered to be a reasonable proxy for watching the movement of M3, which is the broadest measure of the money supply, which is important because inflation in the money supply means that inflation in consumer prices is coming.
Now that we have the academic stuff out of the way, the truly horrifying part of it all is when Mr. Hamilton says, 'Absolute annual MZM growth peaked at a staggering 16.7% in March 2008', and that 'Bernanke’s Fed has been ramping money-supply growth so fast that actual MZM is starting to look parabolic even on a short-term chart. In just over 2 years under him, MZM has ballooned 25.1% unchecked!'
Apparently, he mistook the look of sheer, paralyzing horror on my face at this revelation of such a massive expansion of the money supply (because it will lead directly to inflation in consumer prices), to be mere confusion on my part. Helpfully, he reiterated for my benefit, 'You read that right. There were 16.7% more US dollars available for spending this March than last! Sooner or later all this excess money will eventually bid up prices. Some of this inflation will be perceived as good, primarily the part that flows into stocks. But the part bidding up scarce food and energy is not going to make Americans very happy.'
He goes on to say that these rates of growth in the money supply 'defy the imagination. At 12% growth compounded annually, it only takes 6 years for something to double. At 16%, this drops to well under 5 years. If the Fed doesn’t stop this madness, there could be twice as many dollars floating around in 5 or 6 years as there are today. Even with modest economic growth, this means general price levels would probably almost double.'
Prices that are doubled in five years? Yow! 'And,' he adds, 'this inflation is totally above and beyond all the supply-and-demand-driven global commodities bulls’ increases!'
And it is all because (as I never seem to tire of saying) of the over-creation of money by the Federal Reserve. Martin Hutchinson of The Bear’s Lair figures that I am too narrow and provincial, and writes that apparently I am too stupid to realize that there is monetary insanity everywhere, and that 'other countries have also been expanding their money supplies excessively. The European Central bank has allowed euro M3 to expand by 11.1% in the three months to March 2008, following an increase of 11.5% during 2007.'
He goes on, 'As in the United States, this increase is much faster than that of nominal GDP, and it had been continuing for several years, with annual growth rates of 7.4% in 2005 and 10.0% in 2006. Of the major emerging markets, China and India have both been operating expansionary monetary policies and now have considerable inflation problems. Vietnam, too, has been surprised in spite of its rapid growth by inflation surging towards 25%.' Yikes!" - Richard DaughtyGeneral partner and Chief Operating Officer for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of 'The Mogambo Guru' economic newsletter. Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28407] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Rising energy prices usually signal the end of most share market booms and business cycles. Why?] Modern economies run on petroleum products. As oil has gone up...so has everything connected to it. But as the oil price rises, it sets in motion a whole contraption of actions and reactions. As the price of a gallon of gas rolls up a penny, it tips over a little cup in which there is a steel ball. The little ball rolls down a track, trips a number of levers and switches, and runs into another ball attached to a string, which then swings over to the left and knocks over a glass of water, which falls down onto a tray of fast-growing ivy seeds, which send out shoots and vines and strangle the entire apparatus.
Well...you get the point: one thing leads to another...
And one thing that high oil prices lead to is higher prices for everything else. And higher prices lead to less purchasing power on the part of the average consumer, which leads to fewer sales, which leads to less output, which leads to lower earnings and slower growth...etc, etc." - Bill BonnerAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.28429] Need Area: Money > Invest "Although financial commentators [media] are ethically required to support their opinions with a degree of ability to interpret the facts, many opinions are presented by writers who have little or no understanding of the topic about what they are writing [the financial media are not monitored or controlled by a governing body, unlike financial analysts]. Would you take advice about brain surgery from a plumber?
As a reader, we are free to agree or disagree with their opinions. Sadly, too many readers interpret writers’ comments as facts..." - Brian McNivenValue investor, author of a number of books about value share investing and developer of the StockVal share investment software.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image