CALGARY — There may be only one winnable Alberta seat for the Liberals in next year’s federal election — and two prominent Liberals both appear to want it.

Kent Hehr, a quadriplegic lawyer who has represented much of the area as a provincial MLA for six years, has announced he will seek the federal nomination for Calgary Centre, which is currently held by Conservative MP Joan Crockatt.

Chima Nkemdirim, who is Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s chief of staff and was co-chair at this year’s Liberal convention in Montreal, had long been tapped to run for the nomination. Mr. Nkemdirim has not formally announced.

Calgary Centre has not elected a Liberal since 1968, but conditions have been lining up in the party’s favour.

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Ms. Crockatt won the seat by fewer than 1,200 votes in a 2012 by-election — she lost 20% of the vote share from previous Conservative MP Lee Richardson. Liberal Harvey Locke came in second.

The riding has since been redistributed in a way that favours a a centre-left candidate.

Gavin Young/Postmedia/FilesAlberta MLA Kent Hehr: “It’s time for Calgary to have a federal Liberal MP.”

“It’s time for Calgary to have a federal Liberal MP,” Mr. Hehr told the Post. “We are a young, urban, intellectually sophisticated city that can handle a diversity of thought. I think that the time is now. I sense with every fibre of my being that Calgary Centre is looking for a progressive voice to vote for.”

Mr. Hehr offers a compelling personal profile: An athlete who had aspirations to become a physical education teacher, Mr. Hehr was hit in the neck in a drive-by shooting in 1991. The accident left him paralyzed and confined to a wheelchair.

However, he went on to become a lawyer at Fraser Milner Casgrain — the same firm at which Mr. Nkemdirim made partner before joining Mr. Nenshi at city hall.

“I have great respect for Chima Nkemdirim. I consider him a friend, but I have a track record with the voters of Calgary Centre that goes back six-and-a-half years. I work and play with the citizens of Calgary Centre and the vast majority of them know who I am. They understand my value system and, in my view, I am in the best position to represent their values at the federal level.”

Mr. Hehr previously vied for the mayoral seat Mr. Nenshi eventually won in 2010 — however, he dropped out before nominations closed due to lack of widespread support.

While the world obsesses once again over the never-ending complexities of the Middle east, the Congo has returned to its general state of chaos and slaughter while the world largely ignores it. Except, of course, senator and former general Romeo Dallaire, who tells the CBC the huge African country has descended again into “absolute anarchy” and the United nations should do more to offset the collapse of government behind it. “This has been an exercise that has simply gotten worse as we’ve seen less engagement by both the [UN] Security Council, and in my opinion the international community,” said Dallaire, who led the UN mission in neighbouring Rwanda during the 1994 genocide. There are 10,000 UN troops in the country, but they’re ineffective against the bigger, better-armed and more determined anti-government forces. Dallaire says the UN could provide a “forceful paramilitary” unit that could be “establishing roadblocks, establishing secure sites, guarantee the security of the different displaced camps in the area, and taking control of the radio” and organize negotiations. But that would require will, which would in turn require that the world cared enough.

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The U.S. says Syria’s apparent preparations for the possible use of chemical weapons a “red line” and big trouble will follow if government forces cross it. Anyone think Bashar Assad will hesitate? I wouldn’t bet on it. So there should be planning under way for the potential need to respond, right? And the model should be George H.W. Bush, who assembled an international alliance to confront Iraq in 1991, not George W. Bush, who figured the U.S. didn’t need no alliance for the second Iraq war a decade later.

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Julian Fantino is defending yet another remaking of CIDA, Canada’s international development arm, which is now turning away from plain old aid to the needy and turning more towards support for Canadian business abroad. It’s an old approach, which Ottawa tried before and eventually abandoned (along with other countries) because the focus inevitably shifts towards subsidies for Canadian companies working in third world countries, which is great for the companies, not so great for the villages that just want running water. But Fantino — who is always very determined, no matter what he undertakes — seems set on returning there. he tells the Globe: “I find it very strange that people would not expect Canadian investments to also promote Canadian values, Canadian business, the Canadian economy, benefits for Canada,” Mr. Fantino said. “This is Canadian money. … And Canadians are entitled to derive a benefit. And at the very same time … we’re helping elevate these countries out of poverty.”

Bad idea Julian. Why not just shut CIDA rather than continuously remake it along whatever ideological lines are in play at the moment?

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The Star’s opinion page has discovered that the Calgary Centre vote demonstrates that when the opposition is divided, it’s easier for the incumbent to win. How enlightening! Like, isn’t that how Chretien stayed in office for 10 years?

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Barbara Hall Findlay has some sharpish words for young Justin over his insults about Alberta. BHF is setting herself up as the Alberta-friendly candidate. “Whether I’m an Albertan or I’m Ontarian, whether I’m from anywhere in this country, those comments do not reflect me, they don’t reflect my views of this country,” she says. It’s probably a coincidence that her comments came on the same day Justin made another little slip of the tongue, this time about the gun registry, but it could indicate that he’s considered decreasingly untouchable by the other contenders.

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The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says public sector workers take (on average) five more sick days a year than private-sector workers, which it figures costs the economy $3.5 billion. (That seems to presume public sector workers are actually contributing to the economy when they’re on the job, as opposed to calculating their pension, but that’s what they figure).

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Before all the public sector workers start sending nasty emails, here’s one guy who earns his money: The Star profiles Toronto’s most prolific parking ticket officer, who hands out an average of 59 tickets a day and has produced almost $4 million in fines over the past five years. Congratulations Zulfiqar Khimani, who works extra long hours (more than six days a week on average) to accomplish his record, earning north of $100,000 in the process. Better yet, he preys on the hoity-toity part of town, meaning a lot of those tickets are for Beemers and Mercs left in the fire lane while the owners toddle off to Starbucks or wherever, because they can’t be bothered parking properly.

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The Ottawa Citizen’s Glen McGregor reports that Sen. Mike Duffy has claimed $33,000 in expenses since 2010 to maintain a “second home” in Ottawa even though he’s lived in Ottawa for years. He has a cottage in PEI, which he represents in the Senate. Duffy has been living in Ottawa since the 1970s, when he was a journalist, and bought his latest home way before he became a senator, reports McGregor. Too bad — them’s the rules. (Similar allowances were in place in Britain until a year or so ago, when a mammoth scandal erupted over MPs fiddling them to collect big-time. Six MPs and peers went to prison over that one. Not that anyone in Canada would so such a thing.) Duffy responds to inquiries from McGregor with his usual elan: “The other option is to stay in a hotel, and I assume the housing allowance is in lieu,” Duffy said. “I have done nothing wrong, and am frankly tired of your B.S.”

The self-destruction of Rob FordFour more years! But first, two years off!

Considering all the opportunities Toronto Mayor Rob Ford avoided to make his conflict-of-interest problem go away, the National Post‘s Jonathan Kay says“it’s almost as if [he] wanted to get thrown out of office — or, if not get thrown out, at least provoke some self-destructive crisis that put his status as mayor in question.” Kay wonders if it might even be clinical — what some refer to as “self-defeating personality disorder.” We suspect it’s more the product of garden-variety megalomania, an inability to think ahead, and an unwillingness to take advice.

We agree with the Toronto Star‘s Royson James. Ford’s “defeat” may well be “the lifeline [he] desperately needs” — a chance to reinvigorate the grievance complex that animates his core base and present himself, yet again, as “the little guy on the side of the average Joe [against] the city’s elite.” That’s not to say it’s likely he’d win again in 2014, James stresses. His mistakes are legion; his leadership skills are … well, he hasn’t any; his allies very few; and the aforementioned core base is not all that big (James suggests 20% of the electorate). But victory in 2014 is more likely if he’s ousted, we think, than if his administration just bumbles along pathetically for another two years.

The National Post‘s Matt Gurneynotes that throughout this entire ordeal, Doug Ford has continued to be a conspicuous hindrance to his brother’s best interests. As the Mayor was preparing to apologize, for example, there was Doug on the radio complaining that he was being dethroned for “raising money for kids” — which is, of course, ridiculous. Team Ford “need[s] to acknowledge what actually happened, and set about promoting their vision of a fiscally conservative Toronto government while existing entirely in our actual reality,” says Gurney. Which sounds great. But the Fords have always made up their own facts. It just looks a little weirder when they’re spewing them at court decision, instead of other politicians. We doubt they’re capable of shifting gears.

Bob Tarantino, also writing in the Post, makes a surprisingly good case — which is to say we were surprised by the extent to which it swayed us — for the justness of Ford’s removal from office. “If an injustice occurred on November 26 it was not because Rob Ford was punished too harshly,” he argues, “but because such meaningful punishments are so rare, especially for those who wield significant authority.”

A revolutionary status quoEveryone seems to agree that this week’s by-elections were good news for Elizabeth May and her Green Party. Other than that, however, nobody seems willing to read anything particularly monumental, definitive or predictive into the results — perhaps because, as the Star‘s Tim Harperputs it, very few people “bothered to vote.” Colby Cosh on his Maclean’s blog, David Akin in the Sun Media papers, John Ivison in the Post and Michael Den Tandt in the Postmedia papers offer worthwhile bird’s-eye-view commentary, even if it is inherently non-earth-shattering.

Sun Media’s Lorne Gunter takes the somewhat heretical position that the results in Calgary Centre “contain no message for the government of Stephen Harper” at all, but rather speak only to “personal and local” concerns. And then he says pretty much the opposite — that the Conservative victory “is an endorsement of [the Conservatives’] performance and policies since the general election in May 2011.” So … huh?

And in The Globe and Mail, Chris Turner, the Greens’ candidate in Calgary Centre who finished third with 26%, offers a “qualified dissent” from the notion that the result is “a textbook argument for electoral co-operation” and/or “a portrait in microcosm of the circular firing squad that has hobbled Canadian progressives at polls across Canada for years.” It’s very qualified indeed. He doesn’t dispute that “co-operation among the Liberals, Greens and NDP presents the potential for electoral breakthroughs in many ridings”; he simply argues (plausibly) that the Greens attracted a lot of people who might well not vote otherwise. Fair enough. But if Harper really is the beast all three of these parties insist he is, surely a result like this — their combined total was 62%! — has to be yet another wake-up call.

The first lesson of the great by-election madness of 2012 (not!): Canadians don’t care much about democracy. Most of us can’t be bothered to expend the minimal effort required to find a polling station, produce some identification and cast a ballot.

In each of the ridings of Calgary Centre, Alta., Victoria, B.C. and Durham, Ont., spirited by-election races were given a pass by most eligible voters. In Calgary just 27,650 ballots were cast – representing fewer than 30 per cent of those who could have voted. In Durham, northeast of Toronto, just 34,070 voted, a paltry 36 per cent of those eligible. In Victoria, the most engaged of the three ridings, 38,997 ballots were cast – still a turnout of less than 44 per cent.

Granted, these were by-elections. And declining voter turnout is nothing new. But the drops in participation, vis-à-vis even the 2011 general election, were precipitous. Viewing the data through that lens can be instructive.

Each of the four contending parties, of course, claimed victory and vindication, with the status quo ante holding in all three ridings. Conservatives kept Durham and Calgary Centre, while New Democrats held Victoria. This outcome was as predicted by most pre-election polls. Surprises emerge in the complexion of the vote, and the relative changes in voting patterns since May 2, 2011.

At that level, only Elizabeth May’s Green Party had an unambiguously good day. The Liberals had a mixed result; Conservatives and New Democrats suffered setbacks.

Consider Durham – A Conservative stronghold today, as it was in 2011. Retired military officer Erin O’Toole garnered more than half the vote – 50.7 per cent. That’s down only marginally from the healthy 54.5 per cent won by his predecessor, Bev Oda, in May of 2011.

Looking at the “real” count, however, O’Toole persuaded just 17,281 Durham residents to cast ballots for him – compared with 31,737 for Oda in 2011, a huge decline. Second-place New Democrat Larry O’Connor also suffered a “real-vote” drop over his NDP predecessor, Tammy Schoep, garnering only 8,947 votes to her 12,277 in 2011 – even though the NDP’s relative popular support grew to 26.3 per cent from 21.1 per cent.

Liberals and Greens suffered declines in their vote count in Durham as well, but they were in the basement there to begin with. And, in terms of the popular vote, each stayed more or less even with 2011 – the Grits at 17.3 per cent, compared with 17.85 per cent in the last general election, and the Greens at 4.1 per cent, down slightly from 5.39 in May of 2011.

Victoria gets more interesting. New Democrat Murray Rankin clung to the seat by his fingernails, with 14,519 votes or 37.2 per cent popular support, compared with 13,368 votes and 34.3 per cent for the second-place Green, Donald Galloway.

But relative to 2011, the data show a big shift away from the NDP and towards the Greens. At that time New Democrat Denise Savoie garnered 30,679 votes, more than twice Rankin’s tally, and a 50.78 share. Green Jared Giesbrecht in 2011 managed only 7,015 votes, just over 11 per cent of the popular vote.

Meantime the Conservative tally slid sharply, from the 14,275 or 23.6 per cent of votes garnered by Patrick Hunt in 2011, to 5,633 or 14.4 for Dale Gann this time out. The Grits also suffered a “real” decline in Victoria, dropping from 8,448 to 5,092 – but because of the general slide in turnout, stayed more-or-less even in popular support with their outing in 2011, at about 13 per cent.

Calgary Centre, finally, tipped the scales decisively in favour of the Grits and Greens, and away from the NDP and Tories. Here Conservative Joan Crockatt won with 36.9 per cent of the vote – but with a count of just 10,201. The former Conservative MP, Lee Richardson, won 28,401 votes in 2011 – nearly three times’ Crockatt’s total. The Liberals in Calgary Centre, meantime, against historical odds and the trend of declining turnout, grew their real count, from the 8,631 won by Jennifer Pollock in 2011, to 9,034 for Locke. And the Grit share of the popular vote nearly doubled, from 17.5 per cent to 32.7 per cent.

The Greens also grew in both real and relative terms in Calgary Centre, with 7,090 votes or 25.6 per cent support for Chris Turner, compared with 4,889 or 9.9 per cent for William Hamilton in 2011. The NDP vote, meantime, utterly collapsed, to 1,063 votes or 3.8 per cent for Don Meades, from 7,314 or 14.9 per cent for Donna Marlis Montgomery in 2011.

The data can be sliced any number of ways. What it boils down to, though, it seems to me, is unexpected success for the Greens in Calgary and Victoria, and a big, ahistorical surge for the Liberals in Calgary – mainly at the expense of the Tories and New Democrats.

Chest-pounding aside, strategists from all four parties will be engaging in some quiet study this week, as they try to figure out why.

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The Tory premier says anyone seeking a national leadership role shouldn’t be promoting divisions among Canadians.

But Ms. Redford says that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Liberals are moribund in Western Canada.

However, she says she’s glad the Conservatives won in Calgary Centre, a riding she represents provincially.

Tory Joan Crockatt won by a margin of just over a thousand votes, after being neck-and-neck with Liberal challenger Harvey Locke for most of the evening.

Although several polls showed the TV commentator and conservative pundit Ms. Crockatt with narrow leads and declining support throughout the race, she managed to maintain Calgary’s true-blue character — although by not nearly the same safe margins outgoing MP Lee Richardson scored in the past.

With all but ten polls reporting, Ms. Crockatt won by 37% in an election that saw almost a third of the riding’s 93,984 registered voters make it to the polls.

Although her win should not have been surprising — Calgary last elected a Liberal in the late ‘60s — Ms. Crockatt managed to pull a much smaller percentage of the vote than her predecessor.

Mr. Richardson held the riding in the 2011 general election with almost 60% of the vote.

The combined vote-share of the Green and Liberal candidates was more than 58%.

“I’m a new candidate, I’m not an incumbent and by-elections are always challenging for a majority government. So I’m just thrilled that we won tonight and I really will work very very hard to represent this riding well,” Ms. Crockatt said after her victory was announced.

The winner attributed much of the decline in support for the Conservatives to the fact that this was a by-election.

“They’re not the same as a general election. They are more challenging for a majority government.”

An urban riding with a diverse set of voters, Calgary Centre has overwhelmingly supported politicians like Red Tory premier Alison Redford and current mayor Naheed Nenshi. The riding was also home to the Joe Clark coup; in 2000, the Progressive Conservative managed to hold the seat against a surge of Canadian Alliance support in the city.

The nomination of Ms. Crockatt — a polarizing figure whose tacit support of the Wildrose Party alienated many Red Tories and those affiliated with the ruling Progressive Conservative party in the riding — opened a narrow possibility for a progressive win.

“It’s been pretty obvious in the polls that this was the outcome for two and a half weeks,” Mr. Locke said. “But there was no shift toward my camp.”

The Liberal said he didn’t know how much his campaign was affected by gaffes by now-former energy critic David McGuinty, and by Liberal leadership contender Justin Trudeau in the past week — both offered derogatory items about Alberta in media interviews.

Mr. Locke said Mr. McGuinty’s remarks were worse. Mr. Trudeau’s were, he said, taken out of context.

“I don’t want to blame them,” he said just prior to conceding. If I lost this election, I lost it. I lost it. No one lost it for me.”

It what many pundits predicted would be the most boring by-election in the country, two strong progressive candidates have given the Tories an uncommon race.

Ms. Crockatt, 56, has worked as a media commentator and consultant for the past decade. Before that, she served as the Calgary Herald’s managing editor.

She focused on economic issues and showed strong support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his agenda.

“What I can uniquely offer is I have been a spokesperson for Calgary and for Calgary issues on the national stage for a decade or more. That’s what we need, we need a strong voice in Ottawa on the national stage,” she told the Calgary Herald.

However, the campaign was not a love-in for the candidate.

Ms. Crockatt received the sharp end of some pointed words when she missed several public forums. Ms. Crockatt instead said she focused her efforts on meeting voters face-to-face, claiming she personally met with thousands of Calgary Centre residents on their doorsteps. During the last debate, on Saturday, she said “If you’re in Mexico and you lose your passport, do you want to call an opposition member of Parliament?

Or do you want to call someone who can walk across to the minister’s office?” Crockatt said.

Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi tweeted: “I suggest the Consulate.”

With files from Jen Gerson, National Post, and Dirk Meissner, Canadian Press

]]>http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-mcguinty-anti-alberta-comments-likely-influenced-calgary-by-election-alison-redford-says/feed2stdAlberta Premier Alison Redford, left, says that anti-Alberta comments from high up in the Liberal party may have helped Joan Crockatt, right, get elected.NA1127-BYELECTION-RESULTSCalgary Centre (various locations)Calgary-CentreKelly McParland: Tory approach to Calgary Centre would be a good way to blow an electionhttp://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-tory-approach-to-calgary-centre-would-be-a-good-way-to-blow-an-election
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-tory-approach-to-calgary-centre-would-be-a-good-way-to-blow-an-election#commentsTue, 27 Nov 2012 14:40:46 +0000http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/?p=98882

There’s unlikely to be much celebrating among Conservatives over the party’s “victory” in Calgary Centre on Monday night. “Ekes out” seems to be the operative term in describing the win managed by candidate Joan Crockatt. As the Edmonton Journal put it:

Joan Crockatt eked out a federal byelection win in Calgary Centre on Monday night, narrowly beating Liberal Harvey Locke and raising questions about her campaign in the heartland of Harper conservatism.

Or, as the National Post headline described it: “Tories eke out narrow 4% victory in formerly safe Calgary Centre riding.”

In gaining a job for herself in Ottawa, Crockatt managed to reduce the Conservative margin of victory by some 21 percentage points. Lee Richardson, who left the job to serve in the government of Premier Alison Redford, won the riding with 58% of the vote just 18 months ago. Crockatt managed just 37% in holding on to the riding Monday, barely outpacing the Liberal candidate in a province where Liberals were supposed to be extinct.

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Perhaps even more intriguing was the performance of the Green party, which drew 26% of the vote, eight times the total for Thomas Mulcair’s NDP in a distant fourth spot. The Greens also did notably well in the second of the night’s three byelections, placing second in the B.C. riding of Victoria, just three points behind the NDP. In the May 2011 election, the NDP candidate won more than 50% of the vote, while the Greens placed fourth with less than 12%; this time the NDP was reduced to 37% while the Green’s drew 34%.

Green party leader Elizabeth May, who campaigned for Victoria candidate Donald Galloway, should be giddy with delight at the result, which suggests she may not be the sole Green MP in Ottawa forever. It could also mean strategists for the three larger parties will have too alter their assumptions about future elections, if the Greens manage to show continued growth.

For the Tories, an energized Green organization would further divide the left-wing vote, which is about the only thing that let them hang onto Calgary Centre. Though more diverse than many Alberta ridings, and moderate by the standards of some of the province’s Tories, few believed when the byelection was called that it would be anything but an easy win for the governing party. Instead Crockatt managed to turn it into a nailbiter. As the Calgary Herald’s veteran political columnist Don Braid wrote:

For a Conservative to finish with less than 40 per cent of the vote in a Calgary riding is a moral defeat; and for Crockatt, a sheet of plywood nailed over Harper’s cabinet door.
Veteran MP Lee Richardson [won] as a proud progressive who convinced gays, immigrants, low-income seniors and the very poor that he was on their side. His hold on a group that isn’t naturally conservative was astonishing, and admirable. In Upper Mount Royal and the high-income stretches beyond, his appeal was just as natural.
Crockatt’s vote percentage – just a few points above a one-third plurality – shows she has no appeal at all for the vast majority of Calgary Centre voters; nearly 60 per cent of them, in fact.

The near-disaster offers yet another argument for the Tories to divest themselves of the presence of MP Rob Anders, a political embarrassment who spent part of his weekend attending a gathering for the rival Wildrose Party and whose support for Crockatt had all the benefit of a case of mange. The Liberals, despite twin bozo eruptions by David McGuinty and Justin Trudeau, almost doubled their share of the vote, and might have pulled off the upset if not for the strong performance by the Greens.

“The question for me as a Liberal that has been answered tonight (is), can a Liberal run competitively in Calgary? Unquestionably, yes,” second-place finisher Harvey Locke commented at the end of the evening. “The conservatives might have to rethink their campaign strategy of being invisible.”

He may be right, at least when it comes to running a bad candidate from the wrong wing of the party in a riding that clearly isn’t impressed by her. If this is an example of the government’s future strategy, opposition parties have reason to be hopeful.

The weather is mild, the electorate is fickle and Elections Canada is reporting steady turnout for the Calgary Centre byelection.

The polls close at 7:30 p.m. MST, and the latest surveys still showed a tight race between Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt, Liberal Harvey Locke and Green contender Chris Turner.

It what many pundits predicted would be the most boring byelection in the country — the city hasn’t elected a Liberal since the ’60s — two strong progressive candidates have given the Tories an uncommon race.

“It’s a battle of the splits,” said Mount Royal University professor and political analyst David Taras. If Ms. Crockatt wins “she wins because of splits on the left. But if she loses, she loses because of splits on the right. Her own camp is not united.”

Christina Ryan / Postmedia NewsJoseph Fatica casts his vote at the polling station at Rosscarrock Community Hall for the Calgary Centre by-election in Calgary on Monday.

An urban riding, Calgary Centre recently supported politicians like Red Tory premier Alision Redford and current mayor Naheed Nenshi. In the past, it has been held by moderate Tories such as Joe Clark and, until he resigned several months ago, MP Lee Richardson.

Ms. Crockatt’s tacit support of the right-wing provincial Wildrose party has created an heretofore unthinkable opening for Mr. Locke and Mr. Turner to win the seat.

“Let’s say the Liberals win after close to 45 years of losing. Then I think it opens up the whole question about whether Calgary is changing, or has changed,” Mr. Taras said. “It becomes, is there a generational break, is the city more socially liberal, cosmopolitan, edgier, younger, funkier than it was 15 years ago?”

Even if the polls grant Ms. Crockatt a narrow win, this race should give some Conservatives pause next time a writ is dropped.

Byelections typically record low turnout, but Elections Canada spokesman said voters had shown some earlier enthusiasm, with polls expected to become more busy around dinnertime.

“There were a few polls that had a few electors lined up at 7:30 a.m. as the doors opened this morning, which is a good sign,” said John Enright “The weather’s good, which helps.

“Calgary is running super smoothly so far, we haven’t heard of any hiccups at all.”

At least two downtown voting stations said they had noticed a steady stream of voters.

“I’m pleased that it’s a close election,” said Rhondda Grant. “It’s hard to get going and show up to vote when the outcome is a fait accompli.”

Ms. Grant was one of several voters who said she was disappointed by the Conservative candidate’s campaign. Ms. Crockatt has earned the ire of Mr. Nenshi for failing to turn up to all but two public forums.

“I don’t think they put any effort into getting elected. That’s because they’re expecting to get elected,” Ms. Grant said.

Howard Jacques, who has lived in the riding for 15 years said: “Well, the Conservative candidate hasn’t bothered to show up.”

While Mr. Jacques said he wouldn’t vote Conservative anyway, Sara Watson said she usually supported the Tories, but decided against it this time.

“I think [Joan Crockatt] represented herself in this election as Conservatives have as a whole: non-existent.”

Ms. Watson said she was going to support the Liberal candidate, but decided against it when the party took a stand in favour of the CNOOC-Nexen deal.

Foreign takeovers were also a primary concern for Lester Greaves, who said he didn’t support other countries owning Canada’s resources.

“I’m willing to give the Conservatives another kick at the can to see what occurs.”

]]>http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/calgary-centre-byelection-results/feed0stdBetty Crosby helps voter Renah Jones at the polling station at Rosscarrock Community Hall for the Calgary Centre by-election in Calgary on Monday.Joseph Fatica casts his vote at the polling station at Rosscarrock Community Hall for the Calgary Centre byelection in Calgary on Monday.Calgary-CentreKelly McParland: Even if they win, Calgary Centre is a warning to Torieshttp://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-even-if-they-win-calgary-centre-is-a-warning-to-tories
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-even-if-they-win-calgary-centre-is-a-warning-to-tories#commentsMon, 26 Nov 2012 14:22:45 +0000http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/?p=98682

Danielle Smith is testing a new and novel tactic for political leaders: admitting dumb mistakes. The Wildrose leader acknowledged on the weekend that the party will have to do a better job of picking candidates after ill-timed outbursts by two candidates halted its momentum and put it on the defensive in the late stages of Alberta’s election last spring.

Federal Conservatives should also be paying attention. The Tories are in a close race to hold onto the riding of Calgary Centre in a byelection today. While Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt may still manage a victory, it’s a telling sign when a Tory candidate in Alberta has to struggle for a win.

If she does come out on top. Crockatt can thank the blessings of a divided opposition. Former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien loved to boast of his three majorities, but he collected them mainly because conservative opponents helpfully divided the anti-Liberal vote among two or three competing factions. Crockatt’s rivals have performed the same helpful service, with Liberals and Greens – and to a lesser extent the NDP – carving up the anti-Tory vote into smaller, more easily defeated pieces. Polls suggest Crockatt has the support of about a third of voters, which in a head-to-head battle with a credible opponent would be a recipe for defeat. Only the proliferation of challengers has Crockatt still holding onto a realistic hope of success.

That may be cheering for the federal party’s overall strategy, which is to encourage a Liberal-NDP split across the country, the better to come out on top. But it can’t – or shouldn’t – encourage any real satisfaction among party strategists. Even in a riding that is unusually diverse and moderate-minded, for Alberta, defeat is not an option the Conservatives want to start considering. They might have precluded that risk if they’d settled on a better candidate, as in one who was actually willing to show up for all-party debates, and was able to hold her own against capable opponents. As reported by the National Post’s Jen Gerson, that’s not Crockatt.

Although largely absent from public forums during the campaign, Ms. Crockatt managed to make several gaffes during her few appearances.

At the last forum, on Saturday, she defended Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s foreign affairs record by standing up and saying: “Our Prime Minister was named world statesman of the world this year.” She then sat down. Upon prompting, she was unable to name the group that granted the award, later saying she had Googled it on her smartphone.

In a Red Tory riding that was once held by Joe Clark and has been represented since 2004 by Lee Richardson, a moderate who is leaving to work for Alberta’s similarly-minded premier, Crockatt allowed herself to be identified with Rob Anders, a perennial candidate for most embarrassing MP in Ottawa, who spent part of his weekend at the Wildrose conference, supporting opponents of the kind of people Calgary Centre likes to vote for. Why would a Conservative MP show up at another party’s get-together two days before a byelection in which the result is uncertain? Well, because apparently it’s easier to trash your allies that way:

“I sense that this party represents that, all three pillars, much more than the Progressive Conservatives,” Anders helpfully told reporters at the Wildrose gathering.

Success breeds complacency, and complacency precedes defeat. Liberals obviously smelled complacency in Calgary Centre and poured in resources in search of an upset. If not for the helpfully blockheaded remarks of Liberal MPs David McGuinty and Justin Trudeau, which reconfirmed suspicions that the party’s sudden ardour for all things Albertan was not to be trusted, Crockatt might not be enjoying the slim lead she still holds. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives may welcome her to Ottawa, no matter how she wins, but they don’t want to run many more campaigns like the one in Calgary Centre if they want their majority to last more than one term.

National Post

]]>http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-even-if-they-win-calgary-centre-is-a-warning-to-tories/feed0stdHarvey Locke of the Liberal Party and Conservative Joan Crockatt appeared at the final debate in the Calgary Centre by-election on SaturdayCalgary riding ‘still up in the air’ in unexpectedly tight federal byelectionhttp://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/calgary-riding-still-up-in-the-air-in-unexpectedly-tight-federal-byelection
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/calgary-riding-still-up-in-the-air-in-unexpectedly-tight-federal-byelection#commentsMon, 26 Nov 2012 03:38:25 +0000http://news.nationalpost.com/?p=236807

CALGARY — Election day is but hours away and Green candidate Chris Turner’s campaign office has the broken-in feel of an office space turned temporary home with the addition of handmade signs, a fridge, donated perogies and homemade soup.

One worker rings what sounds to be a cowbell to announce the previous day’s accomplishment: 802 lawn signs. A rescue dog named Captain is tied up in the corner, by turns enthralling and frightening the litany of small children who can be dressed up in green t-shirts and buttons, a small army of irresistible minions in the service of Mr. Turner’s door-knocking brigades.

This morning, there are two dozen such volunteers. About 40 more volunteers will join in the afternoon. One of the volunteer co-ordinators tells the door-knockers to keep their eyes open; a prize awaits the most unusual encounter.

“I hope to God you don’t see a naked guy, but we saw one on the Nenshi campaign,” she said.

With a list of 300 active volunteers, no one expected Mr. Turner to be doing this well in Calgary Centre, the byelection that nobody-but-a-Conservative was ever supposed to win.

Yet the polls show Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt with the narrowest of leads heading into Monday’s election. The left remains split between Liberal Harvey Locke and Mr. Turner, with the NDP’s Dan Meades trailing far behind.

“If people are going to focus more on the fear of Conservatives winning, those are not the people we’re going to reach,” Mr. Turner tells his cadre of volunteers. His message: “there’s nothing to be afraid of.”

Yet despite the surging popularity of more left-leaning candidates, and the growing unpopularity of Ms. Crockatt, Keith Brownsey an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University, said the Conservative remains the favourite to win.

I think it’s still up in the air

“I think it’s still up in the air, but the probability, if you look at the historical record, is certainly in favour of Joan Crockatt. That doesn’t say she’ll win, but the probability is that she will,” he said.

The more interesting prospect to consider is why true-Tory-blue Calgary Centre is even a race.

“It is a very diverse riding. It’s diverse ethnically, socio-economically, any which way you want to look at it. Even the age demographic is scattered all over,” he said.

This is not a typical Conservative riding. Calgary Centre was home to Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark, despite the city’s affection for the Canadian Alliance. Since 2004, it’s been held by Red Tory, Lee Richardson, who was able to support a rapport among the riding’s various communities, Mr. Brownsey said.

Further, “Joan Crockatt is an awful candidate. She’s refused to debate. She’s toed the party line. She’s campaigned with Rob Anders and she has a history with the [provincial opposition] Wildrose Party, which would anger any number of Progressive Conservatives in the riding,” he said.

Although largely absent from public forums during the campaign, Ms. Crockatt managed to make several gaffes during her few appearances.

At the last forum, on Saturday, she defended Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s foreign affairs record by standing up and saying: “Our Prime Minister was named world statesman of the world this year.” She then sat down. Upon prompting, she was unable to name the group that granted the award, later saying she had Googled it on her smartphone.

Ms. Crockatt also said she was running to represent Calgary Centre constituents.

Do you want to call an opposition member of Parliament?

“If you’re in Mexico and you lose your passport, do you want to call an opposition member of Parliament? Or do you want to call someone who can walk across to the minister’s office?”

A response Mr. Brownsey called “insulting.”

“Absolutely insulting. In fact, some studies have proven that opposition members sometimes get better results out of government than in the back benches.”

For his part, Mr. Locke hit the hustings one last time on Saturday morning — hoping to hit a few thousand homes before the Grey Cup game started.

“I think this election will come down to whether or not the people of Calgary Centre want a Rob Anders-style Conservative as their face,” he said, surrounded by cameras piqued to the contest. “Or if they want a local kid from here who grew up, who’s an unabashed progressive Liberal.”

Yet, despite Ms. Crockatt’s unpopularity, progressives in the largely urban riding — which supported the rise of mayor Naheed Nenshi and comprises the constituency that elected premier Alison Redford — remain split. A younger demographic less inclined toward traditional partisan politics, supports Mr. Turner; while the stalwart core of steady Liberals who long remained loyal, but unloved are behind Mr. Locke.

The competition has inspired a steady influx of political superstars to Calgary, including NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, Green leader Elizabeth May, and Liberals Bob Rae, Justin Trudeau and Paul Martin. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been the only party leader to take a pass.

“Our political culture has been the way it is because we’ve had the sense that we needed to circle the wagons and armour ourselves against Central Canada, and that’s why it’s been uniformly conservative,” Mr. Locke said. “But you don’t need to do that anymore when the Prime Minister lives in Calgary South and the country’s being run in a way that isn’t reflective of the progressive values that I believe most Calgarians hold.”

Joan Crockatt won the Cash-for-Life lottery in Calgary on the weekend. Not the one where you get $1,000-a-week for life. That’s peanuts compared to an MP’s income. Crockatt won the much bigger and more reliable contest: the Conservative nomination for Calgary Centre.

The last time someone other than a conservative held the riding was … uh, oh yeah … never. True, it has been known to swing between the Red Tory and bedrock Conservative wings of the party, shifting between Reform/Canadian Alliance and the old Progressive Conservatives. Former prime minister Joe Clark held it for a time, and Joe doesn’t get invited to a lot of meals at 24 Sussex these days.

The nomination comes with automatic election to the House of Commons and a salary of $157,731 plus perks. Unlike the Senate, there is no automatic retirement age. And, as fellow Calgary MP Rob Anders has shown, no amount of embarrassment is enough to lose a Calgary Tory their job in Ottawa. No wonder five other candidates contested the job (which is more challengers than there usually are parties in a federal election). All they needed was to come first among about the 1,800 local riding members eligible to vote, and the future was secure. Divide 1,800 votes six ways, and you can appreciate it’s a rich gift in the hands of a few hundred voters.

The only danger to Crockatt, a former managing editor of the Calgary Herald, comes from within the party. Lee Richardson, who held the seat before taking a job with the provincial Tories, was considered a moderate, while Crockatt is considered more in line with the Wildrose party, the upstart provincial party that occupies territory to the right of the provincial PCs. Richardson backed on of Crockatt’s rivals, Greg McLean. Veteran Herald columnist Don Braid writes that Calgary Centre is “one of the most politically and socially diverse ridings between Toronto and Vancouver. If the Conservatives fail to pick a moderate like Greg McLean, many byelection voters will have a hard look at the Liberals.”

Naturally, Crockatt appealed for unity after her victory. She will have to win a byelection to cement her guaranteed income job in the House.

“Now is the time for all of us to come together and say ‘we’re all Conservatives,’” she urged.
…It’s not over. We want to take a breath, we want to take a little break, and then we want to come back and redouble our efforts because our real opponents are the NDP and the Liberals. We want to make sure we put up a very strong fight and keep Calgary Centre strong in the upcoming byelection.”

If she wins the byelection and just one general election, she qualifies for the fat MP pension plan. Isn’t politics wonderful?

Shortly after Joe Soares stepped into the Calgary city limits, he entered one of the Western-themed tourist shops on 8th Avenue and purchased a wide-brimmed white cowboy hat.

Although the affectation is rarely adopted outside Stampede hours, the would-be MP has worn it ever since.

“I got it as soon as I got here because when you’re door knocking, the sun can kill you,” he said. “You’re spending 10 to 12 hours a day outside, you’ve got to cover your head. Some of your colleagues think it’s funny and they’ve been calling me Calgary Joe.”

Related

“I wear it with pride. It was out of practical necessity… I plan to keep it. And, in fact, I’ll bring it to Ottawa, too. I’ve checked the parliamentary rules. I can wear it in the House of Commons without any problems.”

Mr. Soares moved to Alberta about a month ago to vie for what has been described as one of the safest seats in Canadian politics.

Former MP Lee Richardson left the riding vacant several months ago to work under premier Alison Redford. Since then, an eclectic collection of Tory candidates have proffered their names for consideration. Just under 2,000 Conservatives are eligible to vote in the six-way preferential ballot race that will almost certainly pick the eventual MP for the seat. The candidates’ policies seem less varied than their political friendships.

The nomination vote is to be held on August 25. A date for the byelection has yet to be declared.

“It’s a contest about who sold the most memberships, and given that this is occurring in the summer, people have other commitments, it’s going to be difficult to mobilize the supporters,” said Chaldeans Mensah, political science professor at Grant MacEwan University.

It’s a contest about who sold the most memberships, and given that this is occurring in the summer, people have other commitments, it’s going to be difficult to mobilize the supporters

Mr. Mensah said the race is likely to come down to political commentator and former local journalist Joan Crockatt and late-entrant and agent to Mr. Richardson, Greg McLean.

The professor said Ms. Crockatt is more likely to draw support from the political types who endorsed the provincial Wildrose party in the most recent election. By comparison, Mr. McLean, who received Mr. Richardson’s endorsement, is apt to pull votes from Red Tories.

“Just from my observation post here, it appears that there are some slight overtones of the Wildrose, [provincial Progressive Conservative] divisions at play,” he said.

But Ms. Crockatt insists the Conservatives are united in Calgary — any rumours to the contrary are merely opportunistic.

“Definitely from the left, they would love to see the Conservatives split again, because that was their opportunity,” she said.

Ms. Crockatt credits her experience as a journalist, a conservative commentator, energy reporter and her support of the prime minister as among her leading credentials. Unlike other candidates, she added, she has no Plan B if she were to lose the nomination.

“I don’t think journalism is an option once you’ve crossed the line over into politics. I wouldn’t be seen as an independent analyst anymore,” she said.

Calgary Centre, the former home of Joe Clark, has never been anything but blue or Reform-green.

“It’s much more transient, much more multi-ethnic, much younger and more resembling other parts of Canada than other parts of Calgary,” said David Taras, a professor at Mount Royal University. “You would think that, based on what we know of the riding, that it’s made for a Red Tory, and that somebody further to the right, a Wildrose Tory, would not do as well.”

Unlike other Alberta ridings, the Conservatives tend to win by comparatively smaller margins in Calgary Centre. The seat might, therefore, be vulnerable to an upset if a centrist candidate in the mold of Naheed Nenshi were to emerge. Failing that, Mr. Taras said the race for the Conservative nomination is likely to be more interesting than the byelection.

“It’s a job for life. It’s one of those rare prizes that comes up,” he said.

That’s why Mr. Soares was keen to snap at it.

“I’ve always admired Alberta from afar and find Alberta and Albertans fascinating. Great people. So moving to Alberta and moving to Calgary in particular wasn’t a great leap of faith. It’s something my wife and I have been thinking about actively for some time, notwithstanding this campaign. We would have done this move anyway.”

Mr. Soares grew up in Gatineau and left his job in Ottawa as a policy advisor with the prime minister’s office. His Quebec roots put him in a unique position to defend Alberta’s interests against what he terms the “socialist wrecking crew.”

“I know Thomas Mulcair intimately. I know the NDP very well, being from Quebec. I think Mr. Mulcair is a very ambitious man who will stop at nothing to reach his goals. If that means pitting one province and one region against the other, I don’t think he’ll lose a minute of sleep over it.”

Mr. Billington, a longtime resident who attended the University of Calgary as the “Calgary School” was giving rise to Stephen Harper and other like-minded politicos, said he could build bridges between the Wildrose and Red Tory wings of the party. Against the NDP, on the other hand: “[Mr. Mulcair’s] outright attack on the oilsands is clearly an attempt to revive nationally divisive politics, to play one side of the country of the other side. Stephen Harper has been very careful to avoid that kind of politicking.”

Mr. Billington has long-standing ties to the Conservative party as a delegate and as a member of its national policy committee. He has even participated in several of the prime minister’s Stampede BBQs.

“I was strongly encouraged to run within Calgary Centre by good Conservatives who all came to me. They sized up the field and felt there was room for a candidate with strong credentials within the Conservative party and stronger professional credentials,” he said.

I was strongly encouraged to run within Calgary Centre by good Conservatives who all came to me

While Mr. Billington can boast a long-running law firm in the city, Mr. McLean is the only candidate with a financial background.

Despite reports to the contrary, Mr. McLean said he is “not at all” a Red Tory. Although he remains progressive on social issues, on all things economic, the candidate said he remains fiscally conservative.

“I think I understand the economic issues quite well. I’ve seen the mistakes of government intervention in certain sectors of our economy,” he said. “I don’t think, among the business community, anyone has more resonance than me.”

At least two candidates have announced intentions to seek the Liberal nomination; conservationist Harvey Locke and Rahim Sajan. The nominee will be chosen Sept. 15.