Commentary

First Take

BP's oil spill grows ever more ominous

Commentary: Even the alarmists got it wrong

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BP's annus horribilus just got a little more horrible. So did the Gulf's.

Three weeks ago, a handful of scientists watching grainy video shot at 5,000 feet beneath the sea suggested that BP's ruptured wellhead was disgorging up to 25,000 barrels of crude a day into the Gulf of Mexico, and maybe more. They were largely dismissed by the oil industry as cranks.

BP Managing Director Robert Dudley, speaking on the PBS NewsHour, called those early independent estimates "alarming because I think they raise the specter of devastation all across the Gulf, all the way over to Florida."

Today, a federally-coordinated group of scientists also concluded those early alarmists were wrong. The actual volume is at least 35,000 barrels a day, and could even be as much as 60,000 barrels a day, way more than those cranks warned about.

This revision roughly doubles the preliminary flow rate estimate from the same group of scientists less than a week ago. And it was conveniently released just a couple of hours before President Barack Obama is scheduled to speak to the nation about the spill, its consequences, and how it could -- or should -- shape national energy policy. Read the latest on the spill.

It also comes at the end of a day that saw BP forced to temporarily halt its oil containment operations at the stricken well after lightning struck the derrick on the drillship gathering the oil, starting a small fire.

It's as if the gods have conspired to show us mere mortals the scope of this classic tragedy.

BP
BP, -1.72%
shareholders certainly get it. News of the revised flow rates sent BP shares down more than 3% lower in after-hours trade, wiping out what had been a rare days of gains for a stock that's lost nearly half its value since April.

These are scene-setters for yet more high drama. On Wednesday BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward and Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg slip into Washington to face the wrath of America's Elected Ones.

But all the rhetoric and groveling are ultimately trivial distractions from the real story: "The specter of devastation all across the Gulf."

Until BP's wild well is killed, the depth of this tragedy -- environmentally, socially, economically -- can only be guessed. And it's already alarmingly deep.

Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.