Long Range Tracking: Men In Black International & Shaft; Avengers: Endgame Updated Forecasts

This week’s update takes a look at two films slated for release on June 14, both franchise titles looking to revive their respective properties with summer moviegoers. Also, in the chart below, check out our updated ranges for next week’s highly anticipated Avengers: Endgame.

Men In Black InternationalOpening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

PROS:

2012’s third film earned back some goodwill among fans of the franchise as strong word of mouth helped MIB3 generate a strong 3.28x multiplier off its $54.6 million opening weekend — resulting in a $179 million domestic total.

Stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson could help bring in some Marvel Cinematic Universe fans thanks to their well-received chemistry in Thor: Ragnarok, while the addition of Liam Neeson adds some attraction for older viewers.

Director F. Gary Gray is no stranger to franchise success, having helmed The Fate of the Furious after the breakout success of Straight Outta Compton.

The early summer market is notably short on comedies aimed at an adult audience, leaving an opening for this to do well if reviews and word of mouth turn out positive.

CONS:

The absence of Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Josh Brolin — the faces of the franchise — is likely to disinterest many fans who helped turn the first three movies into box office hits.

As recent franchise revivals like Ghostbusters (2016) and Terminator: Genisys have displayed, franchise revivals are tough sells unless there’s a fresh hook that can capture a variety of moviegoers. Much will depend on this film’s ability to interest millennials young and old.

Building on the previous point, past franchises have shown fatigue to set in upon the fourth installment of a franchise — Shrek Forever After, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and Transformers: Age of Extinction being recent examples among others.

ShaftOpening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

PROS:

The previous film in 2000 earned a strong $21.7 million opening / $70.3 million domestic run, which translates to approximately $37 million / $120 million with today’s ticket prices.

Samuel L. Jackson’s return is a promising selling point given his popularity has only increased in the last 19 years, thanks largely to his turns in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

In addition to Jackson, the return of original Shaft actor Richard Roundtree and new comer Jesse Usher could make this a potentially entertaining option for multiple generations of moviegoers — especially with Father’s Day landing on Sunday of opening weekend.

CONS:

Competing with Men In Black International‘s debut could be a slight challenge if that film’s marketing and pre-release buzz picks up in the coming weeks.

Given a possible lack of familiarity among younger audiences, a less front-loaded run than is typical of sequels may be possible as older viewers aren’t always drivers of major opening weekends.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date

Title

3-Day Wide Release Tracking

% Chg from Last Week

Domestic Total Forecast

% Chg from Last Week

Estimated Location Count

Distributor

4/26/2019

Avengers: Endgame

$270,000,000 – $300,000,000+

n/a

$660,000,000 – $730,000,000+

n/a

4,400

Disney / Marvel

5/3/2019

The Intruder

$16,000,000

10%

$44,000,000

10%

2,500

Sony / Columbia

5/3/2019

Long Shot

$12,500,000

$50,000,000

2,300

Lionsgate / Summit

5/3/2019

Uglydolls

$13,500,000

4%

$48,000,000

9%

3,600

STX

5/10/2019

The Hustle

$14,500,000

21%

$41,000,000

21%

–

Mirror Films / MGM

5/10/2019

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu

$90,000,000

$250,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/10/2019

Poms

$11,000,000

-12%

$40,000,000

-11%

–

STX

5/17/2019

A Dog’s Journey

$11,000,000

$39,500,000

–

Sony / Columbia

5/17/2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

$35,000,000

$100,000,000

–

Lionsgate / Summit

5/17/2019

The Sun Is Also a Star

$12,000,000

$36,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/24/2019

Ad Astra

n/a

n/a

–

Fox

5/24/2019

Aladdin

$80,000,000

-6%

$220,000,000

-6%

–

Disney

5/24/2019

Booksmart

n/a

n/a

–

Annapurna Pictures

5/24/2019

BrightBurn

n/a

n/a

–

Sony / Columbia

5/31/2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters

$54,000,000

13%

$144,000,000

11%

–

Warner Bros.

5/31/2019

Ma

$24,000,000

$63,000,000

–

Universal

5/31/2019

Rocketman

$37,000,000

$165,000,000

–

Paramount

6/7/2019

Dark Phoenix

$47,000,000

$113,000,000

–

Fox

6/7/2019

Late Night

n/a

n/a

Amazon Studios

6/7/2019

The Secret Life of Pets 2

$80,000,000

$263,000,000

–

Universal

6/14/2019

Men In Black International

$39,000,000

NEW

$107,000,000

NEW

–

Sony / Columbia

6/14/2019

Shaft (2019)

$31,000,000

NEW

$100,000,000

NEW

–

Warner Bros.

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.