Poll: The most popular 2016 candidate among Iowa Republicans is … Paul Ryan?

posted at 5:41 pm on December 16, 2013 by Allahpundit

Seriously, though, of course it’s Paul Ryan. The earlier the presidential poll, the more the results are purely a function of name recognition. He was on the ticket last time so he’s the one guy more than any other whom even low-information Iowa GOPers could pick out of a line-up. No surprise that he’s got the highest favorables. Nor is it a surprise that Huckabee, who won the caucuses in 2008, comes second. Although given his flirtation with running again plus the fact that Ryan’s probably more likely to sit tight and run for Speaker when Boehner leaves than gamble on running for president against a strong field, Huckabee’s arguably the big winner here. If there was any doubt that his popularity in Iowa is durable, this should remove it.

Two other blogworthy wrinkles in the poll. One: Christie’s net favorable rating of +21 is the lowest of any of the 10 candidates tested, Jeb Bush included. On the other hand, his 44 percent favorable rating among independents is highest among all Republicans. That’s the Christie candidacy in a nutshell — he’s “electable” if his base can swallow their distaste for him — and that’s a harbinger of his coming dilemma about Iowa. Should he run hard there and try to put the race away early? If he consolidates centrists, as Romney almost did a year ago, and social cons and tea partiers are split three or four ways among right-wing candidates, he could pull the upset and then all but finish things off in New Hampshire. But if he competes and flames out, the press will be ready with “Christie on life support/NH a must-win” headlines. This is why I said on Friday that he’d benefit from having Huckabee run. If Huck jumps in and wins Iowa again, Christie will dismiss it as a social-con stronghold that doesn’t say much about anything. If Huck doesn’t run and Christie loses to, say, Ted Cruz, that’ll be read as a more broad-based grassroots uprising for the tea-party candidate over the centrist. That’s a harder narrative to cope with.

Which brings us to the other wrinkle. I would not have guessed, even factoring in his relatively low name-recognition, that Cruz’s favorable rating would be only 46 percent right now.

A favorable/unfavorable rating of 46 percent to 17 percent among Iowa Republicans might be sobering for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, given the heavy media coverage he’s gotten recently — for his laser-like focus on bashing Obamacare, his role in the 16-day government shutdown, and his three trips to Iowa since July.

On the most-popular scale, he’s tied for last, with the highest negatives of the bottom three.

“I would have expected for Ted Cruz’s numbers to be a bit stronger,” GOP strategist John Brabender said.

But Cruz is new — a freshman senator who had never been elected to public office previously, and had never set foot in Iowa until this year. The poll surveyed GOP adults; likely caucusgoers would almost certainly look more conservative, and those further right have a slightly different take on Cruz.

That’s an important point and makes Christie’s numbers look even worse. If all he can do is +21 among a sample of Republicans that’s certainly more centrist than participants in the 2016 caucus will be, he’d better think hard about skipping Iowa for New Hampshire. Even allowing for the fact that respondents here are more centrist and less politically knowledgeable than the next Iowa GOP electorate, though, I’m surprised Cruz’s profile is as low as it is. He’s the biggest star in tea-party politics right now; he was the face of the “defund” movement in October and got big press for his marathon floor speech against ObamaCare. He’s a regular on Fox News and appeared on “The Tonight Show” just a few weeks ago. And he’s made a few trips to Iowa already and was received ecstatically by the conservative crowds he spoke to. All of that, and yet his favorables are basically identical to Rubio’s. (Rubio’s unfavorable rating is actually slightly lower.) Everyone expects Cruz to be a serious contender in Iowa if he runs in 2016, which just goes to show how worthless these early polls are. But maybe that also means that Rubio’s on a stronger footing than we all expect. Eighteen months from now, if immigration’s still bottled up in Congress (which admittedly is unlikely) and Rubio’s continued to work hard to pander to righties, maybe he’ll be in the game. Worth laying down a marker about it now in any case.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Should he run hard there and try to put the race away early? If he consolidates centrists, as Romney almost did a year ago, and social cons and tea partiers are split three or four ways among right-wing candidates, he could pull the upset and then all but finish things off in New Hampshire. But if he competes and flames out, the press will be ready with “Christie on life support/NH a must-win” headlines. This is why I said on Friday that he’d benefit from having Huckabee run. If Huck jumps in and wins Iowa again, Christie will dismiss it as a social-con stronghold that doesn’t say much about anything. If Huck doesn’t run and Christie loses to, say, Ted Cruz, that’ll be read as a more broad-based grassroots uprising for the tea-party candidate over the centrist. That’s a harder narrative to cope with.

Christie’s basic problem (aside from not being liked by the base) is the calendar. He would need a significant split among social conservatives, and the latest poll showed that even with Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum in the race, Huckabee would win, and Christie would come in second.

That would mean Christie’s next most logical state would be to go to New Hampshire, except if Rand Paul runs, Rand Paul is likely to win the state given that it has more of a libertarian bent. Then you move on to South Carolina, where Christie will again come up short. If Christie were going to win the nomination, he’d have to win Florida. Without both New Hampshire and Florida, I don’t see Christie going anywhere other than back to New Jersey, and truth be told, that serves me just fine.

This may be the Republican’s one crowning achievement going to 2016. We all know Hillary (or any democrat) isn’t capable of putting a budget together, so we’re better off for it even if it does concede too much to the whining liberals…

Iowa is passe. Iowa was rendered meaningless with the advent of the digital age. The rest of the nation no longer waits breathlessly for what Iowa has to say, or the results from New Hampshire for that matter.

If Christie were going to win the nomination, he’d have to win Florida. Without both New Hampshire and Florida, I don’t see Christie going anywhere other than back to New Jersey, and truth be told, that serves me just fine.

Stoic Patriot on December 16, 2013 at 5:51 PM

The ‘ol Rudy Giuliani gambit eh? Save that campaign stash until you don’t need it any longer.

Huckabee’s Iowa popularity is from the evangelicals. They are the beginning and end of his support.

Ryan is from neighboring Wisconsin and gets some neighbor love.

Iowa has not been all that great at predicting nominees over the years, nothing like South Carolina, for example (although it went for Newt last time, that was the first win for an eventual loser in an open contest).

And predicting nominees for open nominations three years out is a fool’s errand anyway. But, hey, it’s a quick post that gives the appearance someone is working, right?

Iowa is passe. Iowa was rendered meaningless with the advent of the digital age. The rest of the nation no longer waits breathlessly for what Iowa has to say, or the results from New Hampshire for that matter.

thatsafactjack on December 16, 2013 at 5:52 PM

I think we should be first in the nation with “Oklahoma caucuses”.
:) :)

We need to put an end to this silly ritual of the Iowa caucus and start holding the first primary in Texas.
NeoKong on December 16, 2013 at 5:45 PM

Yes!!!

bluegill on December 16, 2013 at 5:47 PM

Have to say this cracked me up…

“This weekend, the Des Moines Register released a new 2016 presidential poll. The poll showed Paul Ryan with by far the best favorability ratings for Republicans. But the poll revealed another big surprise for everyone, especially Texans: Rick Perry did better among Republicans than Ted Cruz.

Iowa is passe. Iowa was rendered meaningless with the advent of the digital age. The rest of the nation no longer waits breathlessly for what Iowa has to say, or the results from New Hampshire for that matter.

thatsafactjack on December 16, 2013 at 5:52 PM

The amount of electronic ink spent on IA and NH primaries in 2008/12 on this and thousands of other political blogs, Left and Right, puts your analysis ito a state of disputation…

So Iowans like Huckabee. Big deal! Most of us here at HotAir hate the guy. Thus, clearly, HE CAN NEVER WIN!
Caucuses, shmaucuses. I mean, who needs ‘em? Patrick Ishmael’s HotAir polls will tell you EVERYTHING you need to know about who our next President is gonna be. I mean, c’mon, right?!
cschande on December 16, 2013 at 6:14 PM

cschande, aren’t you the guy who has had a crush on Huckabee for years and who only posts in threads where you can promote Huckster?

Look, Huckabee is no conservative, and he supports amnesty.

How about we go with an actual conservative this time? We don’t need the guy who lost to both McCain and Romney.

Things are going to be very interesting…Because Mexico is gonna have an economic boom in the next coupla years…as predicted by Gov. Perry. Texas scores…

“The bill ending the state monopoly was approved by the Mexican Congress Dec. 12. Before becoming law, the proposal must be ratified by state assemblies, most of which are controlled by proponents of the reform….”

“Gov. Perry told reporters, “I think immigration reform is going to be very passé. It’s going to be part of the past. And one of the reasons is that is that when Mexico liberalizes the energy policy down there and the Mexicans who are here illegally go home… and as a matter of fact there might be a lot of folks who maybe are U.S. citizens going to Mexico looking for jobs in the energy industry.”

Peña Nieto, he said, is “very committed to improving the economic lot in Mexico”. “And (at) that particular point in time,” the governor added, “this whole discussion about immigration reform, I think it goes away for one thing. And the idea about border security may shift from the United States and Mexico border, down to the Guatemala-Mexican border.” He told CNN that the amount of time it would take for the discussion on immigration reform to change would vary depending on “how fast the Congress in Mexico works”. But in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, he said it would “change drastically in the next 12 to 24 months.”

Revenue from Pemex provides the government with about a third of its budget, but Mexican oil deposits are said to be on their last legs – within about 5-7 years, experts say, the country will hit peak oil. Pemex does not currently have the technology to access Mexico’s huge deep-water and shale gas reserves….”

So Iowans like Huckabee. Big deal! Most of us here at HotAir hate the guy. Thus, clearly, HE CAN NEVER WIN!
Caucuses, shmaucuses. I mean, who needs ‘em? Patrick Ishmael’s HotAir polls will tell you EVERYTHING you need to know about who our next President is gonna be. I mean, c’mon, right?!

cschande on December 16, 2013 at 6:14 PM

cschande, aren’t you the guy who has had a crush on Huckabee for years and who only posts in threads where you can promote Huckster?

Look, Huckabee is no conservative, and he supports amnesty.

How about we go with an actual conservative this time? We don’t need the guy who lost to both McCain and Romney.

bluegill on December 16, 2013 at 6:20 PM

Haha, yep, that’s me, although I probably spend more time poking fun at the Huck-a-haters here than I do actually promoting the guy (which is how my post was intended, in case you didn’t pick up on that).

As I’ve said before and will continue to say until the facts on the ground prove otherwise: if Huck runs, he wins. And I, for one, am looking forward to it. And apparently a bunch of folks in Iowa feel similarly.

Good luck Repubs. With the talk of amnesty, and the new budget deal pretty much only cutting military pensions; Repubs are dead to me, and will be for a frickin long time. No more holding my nose for the lesser of two evils when they are both pretty freakin evil.

On Thursday Paul Ryan was on NPR defending John Bohner and his establishment BS “if you don’t know whats in the deal how can you criticize it!” crap. By the way, that phrase and mindset is the exact same as “we have to pass it to find out whats in it” from Pelosi. Paul Ryan then went on to continue criticize all those irrational radical tea party extremists, while throwing in some of John Mccains “my friends, ….” shtick. Predictably, NPR jumped all over that and had how many segments of “The tea party extremist wing of the Republican party is so extreme and out of touch, that even far-right congressman Paul Ryan thinks that they are being excessively radical and extreme! Extremist extreme extremists!”

No need to apologize! I’d rather that, if we really must have primaries, Okies get the first show. Most have good ol’ common sense in abundance and, if memory serves, it doesn’t go blue nearly as often as has IA. Minnesota is the worst in that respect of the upper midwest states – hasn’t gone red since Nixon in 72.

Naw, it’s good to have a state and a governor of which you can feel proud.
BTW, IA’s “Repuhlican” governor just signed on to Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion.

whatcat on December 16, 2013 at 7:39 PM

Am proud, been a good state to live in. Never trusted Branstad, Iowa’s gonna be in a bind when it has to pick up the costs. Also, kinda off topic, I found out one of my kids teacher is sister-in-law to Mary Fallon at the last parent/teacher conference. Asked her if she would be my liason.

We need to put an end to this silly ritual of the Iowa caucus and start holding the first primary in Texas.

NeoKong on December 16, 2013 at 5:45 PM

Amen, but Iowa is worse than a silly ritual, unfortunately. Its hugely disproportionate impact on presidential races is a goddamned travesty. You could make a darned good case that these few thousand ethanol suckers / agribusiness zombies ought to have no more influence than, say, New Mexico. Yet every four years these demanding twits insist that the whole political world parade through their living rooms, kiss their farm animals, and watch them stuff their pie holes with pancakes.

But then, what do we expect: Iowa is for people too stupid to move away from Iowa.

Amen, but Iowa is worse than a silly ritual, unfortunately. Its hugely disproportionate impact on presidential races is a goddamned travesty. You could make a darned good case that these few thousand ethanol suckers / agribusiness zombies ought to have no more influence than, say, New Mexico. Yet every four years these demanding twits insist that the whole political world parade through their living rooms, kiss their farm animals, and watch them stuff their pie holes with pancakes.

But then, what do we expect: Iowa is for people too stupid to move away from Iowa.

PD Quig on December 16, 2013 at 8:02 PM

LOL. That imagery about sums it up doesnt it?

If a national party wasn’t totally corrupt, the primary system would be based on performance in the previous election.

So let’s say all of a sudden the corrupt Republican establishment was tossed out on their tails. To be fair, and to get the ball rolling, we’d still have to use the numbers from Flopney’s election attempt. In that election, Utah went 72% for him, Wyoming 68%, Oklahoma 66%. Let’s draw a cutoff at 60%. All the states who voted at least 60% in favor of the party’s nominee get to go first. So that would be UT, WY, OK – and ID, WV, AR, AL, and KY.

These states get to set the trend and make the narrative for however many months until Super Tuesday or whenever it is the rest are sanctioned to go, who also go in order based on their % performance in the previous election. So this time, DC, HI, VT, NY, and RI would go dead last in the Republican primary calendar.

I think that first set of states: UT, WY, OK, ID, WV, AR, AL, and KY would give you a much better set of candidates who much more closely resemble the desires of the main Republican factions than what you get now. The early states would always be those that are the ones who went most solidly for the party the previous election.

During the VP debate, meek, ineffectual Paul Ryan just sat there grinning and looking scared. Biden repeatedly called him a liar, but Ryan never showed any fighting spirit or counterpunched. It was a painful debate to watch. Mousey Paul Ryan was content to see there quietly and be Biden’s punching bag. Pathetic!

During the VP debate, meek, ineffectual Paul Ryan just sat there grinning and looking scared. Biden repeatedly called him a liar, but Ryan never showed any fighting spirit or counterpunched. It was a painful debate to watch. Mousey Paul Ryan was content to see there quietly and be Biden’s punching bag. Pathetic!

bluegill on December 16, 2013 at 9:38 PM

True. He was paralyzed with fear. Ryan acted like a HS freshmen nerd being bullied by the the captain of the football team. It was like a bad 80s after school special. And Joe B is ,in reality, the class clown which made it even more embarrassing.