A driver holds his FasTrak transponder that speeds up passage through the Bay Bridge toll plaza.

A driver holds his FasTrak transponder that speeds up passage through the Bay Bridge toll plaza.

Photo: Noah Berger, Special To The Chronicle

New poll shows broad support for raising Bay Area bridge tolls

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Details of a regional ballot measure that would raise tolls to pay for billions in Bay Area transportation improvements are beginning to fall into place after results of a new poll show that the measure has sufficient support to pass.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission took no official action Wednesday afternoon, but after a two-hour discussion it was evident that officials are ready to ask voters in nine Bay Area counties in June to approve a $3 toll increase on the region’s seven state-owned toll bridges, phased in a dollar at a time over as many as eight years.

The decision on whether to go to the ballot in June, and the details of Regional Measure 3, will be made at a Jan. 24 meeting.

Consensus emerged quickly after results of a public opinion poll, presented to commission members, showed that voters are likely to support the measure, which could raise up to $4.5 billion over 30 years.

“There is clearly support for investment in transportation in the Bay Area — overwhelming support — and there is support for raising tolls to pay for that investment,” said pollster Ruth Bernstein of EMC Research.

Support for a toll increase was relatively consistent among those surveyed whether the proposed boost was $1 to $2 phased in over four years or $3 spread over eight years. The toll-increase measure would need approval by a simple majority of voters, not a two-thirds supermajority required in most tax measures.

A majority of the 4,151 likely June voters said they would support all three of the potential toll-increase scenarios presented by pollsters.

A $1 toll hike in 2019 won 56 percent support, a $2 toll hike split between 2019 and 2023 garnered backing from 57 percent, and a $3 increase, levied in 2019, 2023 and 2027, earned support from 54 percent.

After those surveyed were informed of how the newfound toll revenue would be spent, support rose for all three scenarios: to 59 percent for the $1 increase, 62 percent for the $2 increase and 59 percent for the $3 increase.

The hybrid phone/Internet survey was conducted between Nov. 27 and Dec. 11 by EMC Research of Oakland. Results were weighted proportionally to represent the demographics of the nine-county electorate. The overall margin of error was 2.6 percentage points.

Commissioners said they were pleased with the results, particularly after hearing grumbling from the public for months about the possibility of bridge tolls rising.

“I am very pleased, in fact surprised, at the level of support, especially from my county,” said Commissioner Julie Pierce of Clayton in Contra Costa County.

Some commissioners wondered if they should shorten the period between toll increases from four years to two years to speed the arrival of the improvement money, but staffers said it wouldn’t be necessary because many of the projects on the list won’t be ready for construction for years.

Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation in October granting the MTC the chance to ask Bay Area voters to raise their tolls to fund dozens of transportation projects.

The spending plan, established by the Legislature last summer after considerable Bay Area infighting, offers something for every part of the Bay Area, with a little more for the most populated areas. It includes both transit and road projects but continues the region’s strategy of emphasizing public transportation while focusing highway improvements on chronic choke points.

The spending plan includes several transit projects: new BART and Muni Metro railcars, a BART extension to downtown San Jose, a Caltrain extension to the Transbay Terminal, a SMART extension to Windsor and Healdsburg, expansion of the San Francisco Bay ferry system, regional express buses and bus rapid transit in the East Bay.

Highway improvements include funding to complete the widening of the notorious Novato Narrows; new carpool lanes and conversion of existing lanes into combined carpool/toll lanes; new freeway interchanges and connections at Interstate 680 and Highway 4 in Martinez, Highway 101 and Highway 92 in San Mateo and Highway 101 and Interstate 580 in San Rafael; and reconstruction of Highway 37 in the North Bay, which floods during heavy rains.

Pollsters found that the most popular projects among those surveyed were highway improvements designed to reduce truck traffic, and a variety of transit improvements: the downtown San Jose BART extension, purchase of new BART cars, better Transbay bus service and carpool access across bridges, and a second transbay rail crossing for BART and other rail service.

“BART, BART, BART,” said Bernstein. “Three of the five most popular projects involve BART.”

What the project list does not include, to the disappointment of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Rep, Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, is a so-called Southern Crossing, a new transbay bridge that could accommodate cars as well as rail. In a letter two weeks ago, the pair demanded that the MTC study a new bridge.

The commission staff has said it will again study the feasibility of a Southern Crossing, which has been dismissed before because of the high cost and concerns about environmental damage. But there are no plans to make it part of the regional toll increase proposal.

Even before the toll increase makes it to the ballot, a coalition of Bay Area business and planning groups is pressing for creation of a broader plan that would raise money to fund a list of regional mega-projects to relieve congestion well into the future. But representatives of the Bay Area Council, Silicon Valley Leadership Group and SPUR, an urban planning think-tank, said Wednesday that their goal for 2018 is to get Regional Measure 3 passed.