6 takeaways from the Orrin Hatch race

4/22/12 7:00 AM EDT

The news out of Utah isn’t great for Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch. But it could have been a lot worse. He could have flat out lost like his former colleague Sen. Bob Bennett two years ago.

Just as Bennett’s ouster in 2010 offered some early clues about the political climate that year, Hatch’s outcome – the six-term senator failed to capture the Utah GOP nomination Saturday and is now forced into a June 26 primary -- provides some insight into the forces driving the 2012 elections.

Here are 6 takeaways from the Utah Senate race:

Mitt to the rescue

No Republican in Congress has embraced Mitt Romney tighter than Orrin Hatch. The veteran senator makes sure to trumpet his endorsement from the former Massachusetts governor at every occasion and even played the Romney card as part of his pitch to Utah delegates Saturday, arguing that they should vote for him so he could “be freed up to go campaign for Mitt Romney.”

It’s a smart move: Romney won 90 percent in Utah’s 2008 presidential primary and continues to have stratospheric popularity in the heavily Mormon state.

With Hatch now appearing on the same June 26 Utah primary ballot as Romney, the question is, how much more does the presumptive GOP nominee do for the senator? He’s already endorsed, cut a television ad and done robocalls for Hatch.

While there’s no better visual for Hatch than a campaign appearance together, the Romney camp will have to consider the risks of even greater involvement – such as a spate of stories, in the event Hatch loses, noting that Utah rejected Romney’s pleas to send the senator back to Washington.

There are also limits to Romney’s influence. The former Massachusetts governor actually spoke on Bennett’s behalf at the Utah GOP convention in 2010 -- and it didn’t do Bennett much good.

Washington clout means nothing beyond the Beltway

The time when members of Congress could wave their chairmanships and pork-barreling prowess at constituents to win re-election is coming to an end. Washington is so discredited that almost no one cares anymore.

Sure, there are a few places where clout and seniority still matter to voters. But not many.

Hatch highlighted the prospect of his ascension to the Finance Committee chairmanship but it barely moved the dials for convention delegates. Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar’s heavyweight resume hasn’t saved him from a tough intra-party challenge this year either.

Think back to 2010. Among the powerful losers: the Senate Agriculture Committee chair and, in the House, the chairmen of the Budget and Armed Services committees.

Incumbents still need to look over their shoulders

There’s little evidence of any kind of significant anti-incumbent wave this year, at least from the elections that have taken place so far. And keep in mind Hatch wasn’t even close to losing – he simply fell short of a 60 percent threshold that would given him the Republican nomination outright.

But one lesson from the Hatch race (and the Lugar race in Indiana on May 8) is that no incumbent is completely safe, particularly in the Republican Party. In Hatch’s case, there isn’t any silver bullet issue -- he isn’t exactly a Rockefeller Republican and he hasn’t been tainted by scandal. Aside from a few questionable votes – nothing beyond the pale – Hatch has a generally conservative record. The thrust of the argument against him is simple: he’s been in Washington too long.

Senate Republicans are going to become even more conservative

If Hatch, or Lugar, or both are defeated in their primaries, they will be replaced by candidates who beat them by outflanking them on the right. And those challengers will be joining a Senate Republican Conference that is losing moderate Sen. Olympia Snowe and where Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, Maine Sen. Susan Collins and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham will need to shore up their right flanks if they want to win another term in 2014.

Hatch isn’t a lock in the primary

While Hatch is the solid favorite to win the June 26 primary, when the broader Republican electorate will be more favorably inclined toward him than the small base of convention attendees, he’s not home free.

Nine weeks is a lot of time for outside groups – who have played an important role in stoking opposition to the senator – to create mischief. And, as POLITICO’s Dave Catanese noted, Hatch hasn’t had to run a primary campaign since 1976, when he first won the seat.

The rise of the black conservatives

After Orrin Hatch, the most interesting news from the Utah GOP convention was the nomination of Mia Love, the Saratoga Springs mayor who pulled an upset to claim the GOP nod in the state’s new 4th District.

The daughter of Haitian immigrants, the pro-gun, pro-life conservative would be the lone black Republican woman in Congress if she won. She’s got a good chance of winning, too: Love will have an experienced opponent in Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson but the seat is heavily Republican -- and Utah favorite Mitt Romney will be heading the GOP ticket.

Love isn’t the only black conservative with a good shot at winning election to the House in November — there’s also Michael Williams, the former state railroad commissioner who’s running for an open seat in Texas.

The rise of black conservatives like Love and Williams has tracked with the election of the first African-American president. When Barack Obama won in 2008, there were no black Republicans in Congress. Today there are two -- Reps. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Allen West of Florida. Then there’s Herman Cain, who showed surprising strength in his long-shot 2012 presidential bid before dropping out.