State of the Left - June 2011

15 June 2011

Policy Network, June 2011

It has been said that there is no such thing as bad publicity except
your own obituary. In politics of course they can be one and the same.
Nonetheless, time in the shadows leaves many centre-left parties
actively seeking eye catching political messages to recapture the
public's imagination.

In power this can sometimes be a relatively untaxing affair; removing
a man from the top of the FBI’s hit list was enough to score Barack
Obama a 9 point popularity boost,
and demonstrate a streak of national security competence to silence
many of his doubters. On the other side of the fence, scoring points
doesn't come so easy.

With trust
in both the market and the state at a low ebb, it is this air of
decisive governing competence which European electorates appear to yearn
for. As Olaf Cramme and Patrick Diamond write in today's Guardian newspaper, such credibility will chiefly come through the development of a robust centre-left political economy - as looks clear in Sweden and Denmark.

This also extends into how the left manages its country's trusted
institutions. In the UK, Labour is watching eagerly from the sidelines
as the Conservative-led Coalition implodes over the crisis of trust in
their headline NHS reforms. Across the Atlantic, the Democratic
administration is in a similar battle to paint the Republicans as
untrustworthy social engineers intent on removing the highly valued Medicare system.

Meanwhile, in Germany Sigmar Gabriel has sought to give the SPD a public “airing out”
in order to inject some much needed youthful energy into a party whose
average age is almost 60. Due to the intransigence of some party members
this move has received bad publicity, yet the wider point is an
important one: many social democratic parties are in dire organisational
straits and reforms are badly needed.

Finally, in Australia Prime Minister Julia Gillard is finding the
glare of publicity much more taxing than her US counterpart, as she
finds herself under siege from big business and conservative media over carbon pricing.

Good, bad, or no publicity, the alarming fact remains that the recent
Portuguese elections have left only 4 social democratic heads of
government among the EU-27. These are challenging times.

Policy Network Political Observers

"The
prospect that Rick Perry could succeed George W. Bush first in the
Texas governor’s mansion and then in the White House, and might face the
kind of united Republican Congress that Bush enjoyed for most of his
term, brings to mind Marx’s observation that history repeats itself, the
first time as tragedy and the second time as farce." BY MICHAEL LIND

“One
of the best bits of advice that the Clinton staffers gave to Blair’s No
10 was that ‘governing is not campaigning – it has a different rhythm’.
That’s true, but New Labour learned the hard way that governing needs
campaigning – you have to win and then renew consent constantly. David
Cameron is stumbling over this very point at the moment." BY JOHN
MCTERNAN

Germany - The old SPD urgently needs new political energy"In
Germany, the SPD has lost almost half of its members since 1990 and the
average age of party members is almost 60. The party has dramatically
lost contact with large sections of society...66% of local party
associations have not carried out any ‘open projects’ with citizens in
the last few years." BY MICHAEL MIEBACH

"The
economy is in its 20th year of consecutive growth, unemployment is
below 6%, the budget will be back in surplus by 2012-13 and net
government debt will peak at 7% of GDP. Yet most Australians aren’t
feeling so positive. Gillard's Labor is under siege from big business
and the conservative media, and is foundering in the opinion polls." BY
DAVID HETHERINGTON

"Håkan
Juholt's ambition to deal with Reinfeldt's progressive conservatism for
what it is might prove successful. That is, if he dares to continue on
that road. Falling back into shouting about Reinfeldt being the same old
Right intent on destroying the welfare state would be a much more
comfortable position. But voters would see through it. So would Freud."
BY KATRINE KIELOS

"Although
implemented by the Liberal-Conservative coalition, the Social Democrats
support stricter border controls, and even boast that it was originally
their idea...As a result, after 3 consecutive elections with
immigration policy at the centre, it is clear that economic competence
will be the decisive factor this time around." BY KRISTIAN MADSEN

"The
minority coalition, which depends on the support of Geert Wilders, now
depends on another questionable alliance for their majority in the
senate: the Christian orthodox SGP – a party which strives for theocracy
and doesn’t allow women to be active in politics." BY PIM PAULUSMA