Calif. official: Avoiding drought won't be easy

Don't get too excited about the first flakes of snow covering California's mountain tops, state officials said Wednesday.

California still has a long way to go to recover from two years of relatively dry winters, and avoiding an official statewide drought will not be easy.

"We're looking for an above-average run-off year," said Dave Rizzardo, a senior engineer with the California Department of Water Resources.

The state's water year begins Oct. 1 and runs through Sept. 29 with peak snowpack conditions usually around April 1.

During the 2012-2013 water year, the amount of rain and snow that fell in Northern California filled the Sacramento River system to only about 65 percent of its normal run-off levels.

On the San Joaquin River and its tributaries, officials measured 51 percent of normal run-off last year.

Conditions on both river systems were similar during the prior water year.

To make up for two dry years, Rizzardo said the state needs to see run-off levels of 115 to 120 percent.

"It is a high mark to hit. Obviously, we don't get an above-average year every year. Otherwise, it would be more common. But we're looking at probably a 30 to 40 percent chance at best," said Rizzardo.

In other words, there is a 60 to 70 percent chance that the state will see conditions dry enough to lead to an official drought declaration.

The last drought declaration was signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in June 2008.

State water officials have said large urban water agencies can usually manage three to four years of drought without big impacts on their consumers.

More immediate risks of drought would be to smaller systems that depend on groundwater supplies and to Central Valley farms that depend on irrigation.

For the first time in four years, the Yolo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District is beginning the water year with no carry-over supply.

The district's executive director, Tim O'Halloran, said farmers will need to decide in December or January which crops to plant next year, based on how much water they are likely to receive.

A drought would also lead to a greater risk of large, destructive wildfires, such as the Rim Fire, which burned more than 400 square miles this summer in and near Yosemite National Park.

Rizzardo said predicting droughts in California has always been difficult because the state's climate is affected by so many different factors, from seawater temperatures to dust storms in Asia.

However, he said climate change will likely make drought predictions even more difficult by increasing the chances of extremely dry winters and extremely wet ones.

"There really isn't much of an average year. In fact, when we get an average year, everybody kind of says, 'What was that?'" said Rizzardo.

Rizzardo said the largest state-owned reservoir is particularly at risk during a warm winter, because much of its watershed is located below the 3,000-foot elevation.

He said higher temperatures of even a few degrees could raise the snowline and dramatically decrease the amount of snow available for next spring's crucial run-off.

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