Arpaio couldn’t win re-election as sheriff in Republican-rich Maricopa County in 2016, when Donald Trump won Arizona. It seems doubtful to think that voters across the state will be running to polls to send him to the Senate.

Arpaio is 'a disaster' for the GOP

Which gets me to my second point.

If you’re the Democratic Party, the sun is surely shining upon you today.

Arpaio’s entry into the Senate race seems to boost Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's chances of becoming Arizona’s next senator — the first Democrat to hold the post in 30 years. (Cue Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, in a dead faint.)

“For the GOP, it’s a disaster if Arpaio wins,” said Republican Tyler Montague, who runs the Arizona Public Integrity Alliance. “His loss for the sheriff’s race is a bellwether for his Senate race in a general election.”

Count veteran Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin among those who don't see Arpaio winning the seat – and aren't convinced that he's serious about a Senate run.

"He lost the state's most populous red county to (Democrat) Paul Penzone in the last cycle, which means he lost the confidence of the Republican swing voters," Coughlin said. "What I’m inclined to believe this is a one-off. He's going to have a fanciful run here for 25 days and roll around in the spotlight (then withdraw). When you file papers you become real. When you have an organization and people doing something, you become real. A tweet, as we now know ... is not real."

Name ID and 'more money than God'

Arpaio would likely win the GOP primary – or at least scare off the one Republican who could deny Sinema the seat. That would be Rep. Martha McSally.

Not everybody agrees that Arpaio couldn’t win.

“I think he is a threat all the way because he’s Trump round 2,” longtime Republican strategist Stan Barnes told me. “I’m not saying he’s going to win. I’m saying that anyone who discounts him as something less than a serious candidate is making a mistake.

“He has 100% name ID and has more money than God and is bear hugging Donald Trump in the public square in the most high profile of ways. You put all that together and it’s a formidable thing.”

Formidable, certainly, in a Republican primary. I’m just not sure that 100% name ID when that name is Arpaio is an asset in a general election.

Will Martha McSally rethink her race?

Democrats usually are at a huge (read: 12-point) disadvantage in Arizona’s midterm elections, given turnout. Arpaio’s entry into the race could erase that advantage.

And make no mistake, with Arpaio in the race – and Trump's endorsement, no doubt, on the way – the primary is likely over.

This, just as McSally appears to be preparing to announce her run Friday for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake. She might want to rethink that. While she could likely beat former state Sen. Kelli Ward in a primary, she’d have a more difficult time in a three-way Republican race. Perhaps best to bide her time.

Which leaves us with Ward vs. Arpaio. Sorry, Kelli, but I’m betting that crafty beats kooky any day.

Arpaio may have been unmasked in Maricopa County, but he’s still a fundraising machine nationally. He’ll likely have the Donald seal of approval and he’ll be well funded — just as Ward’s dreams of Steve Bannon delivering her the Mercer millions have gone up in smoke.

Or more specifically, in Michael Wolff's Fire and Fury.

Joe Arpaio, the guy who for 20 years has teased us with hints that he'd run for higher office, has now transformed from the tease to the tromping big elephant in the Senate race. Who'd have thought it.