Where will Wilma go?

HURRICANE WILMA - FLORIDA BRACES

It became the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic basin Wednesday, in a season in which 2 other storms among recorded history's most powerful -- Katrina and Rita -- also formed. Landfall, expected late Saturday or early Sunday, depends on a weather system heading south.

October 20, 2005|By Maya Bell, Sentinel Staff Writer

MIAMI -- For Florida, it's the highest of a high-stakes question: Where will Wilma, which exploded Wednesday into the most intense storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, make landfall?

Few of the possibilities bode well for the Sunshine State, but a cold front expected to dip into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday likely will help pick the spot, probably between the Florida Keys and Tampa.

"The front holds a lot of the cards, and right now it looks like a footrace," said Nick Shay, a professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami. "Where Wilma will go will depend on how far the storm penetrates the Gulf before the front arrives."

There's also a wild card in the mix: Mexico. Wilma's strength if it strikes Florida could depend on how much of an encounter it has with the Yucatan Peninsula, where it was headed Wednesday night before its expected turn to the east.

"The big question is, will it make landfall over the Yucatan before it makes its turn?" said Stacy Stewart, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center west of Miami. "If it moves inland before turning, it would weaken considerably, maybe even be torn up. But if it just clips the Yucatan, it probably wouldn't affect the intensity much."

In any case, Wilma was still expected to turn sharply back to the east and toward Florida, thanks to the cold front, which Wednesday was moving across the Rocky Mountains and forecast to dig into the Gulf by Saturday.

When the low-pressure system arrives, it is expected to weaken the ridge of high pressure in the Gulf that was keeping Wilma on its more westerly course toward the Yucatan. But even more critical to Florida, it was also expected to shove Wilma eastward -- and back toward the peninsula.

Forecasters, however, cannot predict exactly when the front will arrive, how strong it will be and where it will interact with Wilma, all critical pieces of information in pinpointing the strike zone of this season's record-tying 12th hurricane.

If their estimated timing, calculated from complex computer models that simulate atmospheric conditions and interactions, is off by even a few hours either way, it could make hundreds of miles of difference in the track, said Chris Landsea, the science and operations officer at the hurricane center.

"If the front is strong and goes further south than projected, the turn will occur earlier, and Cuba and the Keys are more at risk," Landsea said. "If it's weaker or doesn't extend as far south, the turn will occur later, and Fort Myers or Tampa would be more at risk."

Case in point: Last year's Hurricane Charley, which was headed toward the Tampa Bay area when a trough of low pressure came through and, at the last minute, pushed Charley into Charlotte County instead, devastating Punta Gorda before it traveled up the peninsula and through Orlando.

Unfortunately, Landsea said, Wilma shares another similarity with Charley. It's expected to strike Florida at an angle, making the track forecast particularly tricky.

Another unfortunate similarity: Once Wilma is picked up by the front, it should move at a very fast clip, perhaps racing across the state at 20 mph.

There is an upside to that. Rainfall -- and therefore flooding -- would be minimized.

But as Central Floridians learned during fast-moving Charley last year, the faster Wilma moves, the farther inland it will spread its most destructive winds.

Just how destructive they will be may depend largely on Wilma's brush with Mexico. Under the best-case scenario for Florida -- and worst-case for Mexico -- Wilma could move farther into Mexico than forecast Wednesday night. If so, it could be torn apart or re-emerge into the Gulf severely weakened.

But, Stewart said, even a weakened Wilma could reintensify because all the conditions that allowed Wilma to become the most rapidly developing Category 5 storm on record still exist.

They include deep pockets of very warm water, little wind shear, an unstable atmosphere and moist air.

Its barometric pressure, the best measure of intensity, also plummeted 100 millibars in 24 hours to 882, the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

Wilma notched another record Wednesday, becoming the third Category 5 storm to form in the Atlantic basin in a season. Katrina and Rita, which hit or brushed South Florida as minor hurricanes before intensifying in the Gulf, are the other two.

Though forecasters have no record of three Category 5 storms developing in a season before, they say it could have happened before satellite observations and reconnaissance flights verified such milestones.

But the closest comparable year in the record books is 1961, which produced two Category 4 and two Category 5 hurricanes.

Even before Wednesday, Wilma had distinguished itself. It is the 21st named storm of the 2005 season, tying this year with 1933 as the busiest on record.

It's also the 12th hurricane of the season, tying this year with 1969 for the most hurricanes.

Though some scientists theorize that global warming is fueling more intense hurricanes, the hurricane center's Landsea and others say they doubt it.

"We know that hurricanes tend to go in cycles of very busy and relatively quiet periods, due to long-term changes in the ocean and atmosphere," he said. "We just happen to be in an active period now."