Analysis: Can the Brumbies win a Super Rugby title?

THE Brumbies are on the verge of a third Super Rugby championship, taking on the Chiefs in the final. Can they win? Iain Payten looks at why they can - and why they can't.

FIVE REASONS WHY THEY CAN

1. The White stuff

Ever seen a joint buzzing with the self-belief of the Brumbies at the moment? And why not? Winning in Hamilton is a big ask but so too is beating the Bulls in Pretoria - arguably tougher, in fact - and the Canberra men got it done, under the pump in the dying stages. Don't doubt the Brumbies will believe they can win again on Saturday night, and while on-field results mean plenty, a big chunk of that confidence stems from the backroom work of the coach Jake White.

Players hate uncertainty more than um., you know, this and that, and accordingly they're drawn to coaches who are proven. If it's worked before, it'll work again, sort of thing.

Winning a World Cup is as proven as it comes. White's major strength is not the technical/tactical - Laurie Fisher and Stephen Larkham are more the Brumbies' brains on that front - but few can match the psychological management skills of the South African. Since gathering a motley crew together midway through 2011, White has played brilliantly the limited cards in his hand.

He revived the old "second-hand Brumbies offcuts" mythology, and worked hard to re-build tight bonds the old Brumbies used to share as well. He insisted they arrive at 7am each morning to eat breakfast together at HQ before training, and made sure they didn't sit next to the same people at lunch. Players were free to do what they liked for dinner - but soon many started hanging out together anyway.

Throw in an emphasis on Spartan fitness - courtesy of hard-ass trainer Dean Benton - and a simple but effective gameplan of exit your half and play thereafter, and success followed. Belief and confidence followed that. Repeat and recycle.

If it comes down to the last five minutes again on Saturday night, the last two years of belief grown under White will determine those 300 seconds.

2. Waikato weaknesses

Yes, there are some. Little ones, sure, but they all count. The Brumbies will look to target the Chiefs lineout to rumble it as a source of possession. On their own throw, the Chiefs had the lowest win percentage (78%) in the ENTIRE Super Rugby competition in 2013, and averaged on 8.6 wins per game. The Brumbies, who averaged nearly two lineout steals per game, will be all over the throwing of Hika Elliott like a rash. Don't forget they used a competitive lineout as a key plank of their historic win over the British and Irish Lions.

The Chiefs defence was staunch against the Crusaders last weekend but it is not known as one of their traditional strengths. They can leak points, but back themselves - successfully - to score more and win. The Chiefs only had the ninth best defensive record in 2013, averaging 22.7 points and 2.3 tries conceded per game. To put that in context, the Force only conceded two points less in 2013 than the Chiefs.

As Israel Dagg showed, gaps wide could be exploited with good feet and pace, and the likes of Henry Speight and Jesse Mogg have both.

Aaron Cruden's goalkicking is also hit and miss. He has a season strike rate of 70%, and can have the odd visit to shank city. In the last regular round he hit 0/4 conversions.

3. The veteran, the skipper and the bloodnut

You'd be happy enough to give the Brumbies backrow gold jerseys and run them on in the first Bledisloe Cup game. George Smith, Ben Mowen and Peter Kimlin have been a highly effective unit this season, and will play a decisive role in the final up against a Chiefs backrow led by the ever-impressive Liam Messam.

The Brumbies loosies are so good because they complement each other's strengths. Smith's excellence is unquestioned, and his ability to time his entry for a steal or disruption is as good as ever. Kimlin is a raw-boned, aggressive pest of a no.6, and never stops competing, whether it be carrying, tackling or hacking away and wrestling to slow down ball at the breakdown. Mowen's workrate is second-to-none. He is a more physical player these days in the contact zone, but his biggest improvement has come in his sheer, bloody-mindedness when competing for the ball. He'll give away a penalty or two at the breakdown but coaches don't mind when he's slowing down the other 50. Slowing down the Chiefs will be vital in Hamilton, and that will require contact strength and breakdown pestilence. They have the perfect backrow for the job.

Fun fact: the host nation of the last three Lions tour has also provided the Super Rugby winner: Brumbies (2001), Crusaders (2005) and Bulls (2009). It's no surprise, given players lift in Lions years to get the chance to play Tests against the famous red jersey, and the Brumbies have plenty of those, in the form of Mowen, Lealiifano, Mogg, Scott Sio and Joe Tomane.

But the Brumbies' historic win over the Lions in June will be the bigger Lions-related factor at play in cow-bell territory. Missing most of their Wallaby stars, the Brumbies weren't expected to challenge but they turned the Lions over armed with a much-depleted team. The win piled on more belief - there it is again - and now armed with a full-strength team, the prospect of taking down the reigning Super Rugby champs doesn't seem nearly as daunting.

5. Maybe Masaga

Harder to contain than an Escape Goat, Chiefs winger Lelia Masaga is a tackle-ignoring beast with the ball in hand. Witness his try against the Crusaders last weekend when he burst through three solid shots to score a match winner. The positive news? Masaga has an ankle injury and is only rated 50-50 to play. You don't want to wish a bloke out of a final, but if Masaga isn't post-try dancing on Saturday night, that's good news.

FIVE REASONS WHY THEY CAN'T

1. Master-Chiefs

They go alright, the Chiefs. Vying to join the Crusaders, Blues and Bulls as back-to-back champions, the Waikato men were the minor premiers again and knocked off the late-surging and hotly tipped Cantabrians to reach the final. The Chiefs scored the most tries (3.1 per game) and most points (28 per game) in 2013, and averaged the most offloads (9.3) and third-most cleanbreaks (12.7). Interestingly, first in linebreaks was the Waratahs (13.1) but we digress.

The Chiefs are some attacking side, but what makes them all the more impressive is they do it all on the sniff of an oily Gilbert. Dave Rennie's side had the LEAST amount of time in possession of all sides in the entire 2013 competition. They held the ball for an average of 13:53 minutes, four less than the top markers, proving the Chiefs are the kings of soaking up pressure before exploding with Sharknado-intensity points flurries. Consider this - mathematically the Chiefs only need four minutes of possession to score a try. They score more than two points every minute. Brumbies' defence best be on.

2. History horrors

As much as the Brumbies swat away the hoodoos of history, they exist for a reason. Since 1996, no side has ever won a final after travelling to-or-from South Africa and only one team has won a Super Rugby final in another country (Crusaders v Brumbies, 2000). Only two franchises have ever beaten the side hosting a final (Crusaders 1998-99-2000, and Bulls 2007), and no-one outside the top two has won Super Rugby since the 15-team format was introduced in 2011. Travelling across the Indian Ocean is a huge factor, as experienced by the Sharks last year and the Chiefs themselves in 2009. Messed up body clocks can lead to heavy legs.

3. Amazing Aaron

Little Aaron Cruden looks like he should be riding the favourite in the fifth but the Chiefs five-eighth is as big a dangerman as they come for the Brumbies.The part-time All Black five-eighth is in superb form, and keeps the Chiefs in all the right areas of the field with a well-judged kick-pass game. Though lightweight, Cruden's running game is arguably his best asset. He knows when to take the line on, and slips plenty of tackles. His offloading is also outstanding, particularly to a supporting centre or backrower. Cruden is so hot right now, Kiwis are even asking the unthinkable question: is Dan Carter now no.2? A Matt Toomua rib-rattler is required early.

4. Brumbies bumblies

The Brumbies have a well-defined gameplan but they have shown a capacity to switch off at inopportune times, and not respond when faced with a hungrier rival. Needing only a point against the Blues to make the finals last year, the ACT men turned up and were blown away by the Kiwis. Similarly this year, when a bonus-point win over the Force in the last round would have secured a top-two spot, they were out-enthused and beaten.

The sense of occasion will no doubt guard against such peril but the Brumbies will also want to either lead early or stay close to the Chiefs. A safety-first gameplan of kicking out of your half and applying pressure in the rival redzone is fine when the game is see-sawing. But if the Chiefs get away to a three-try lead and the Brumbies need to ratchet up the attacking adventure, it doesn't suit them. They have the talent, but structure and catch-up rugby aren't the best bedfellows.

5. More cowbell

If it's not deafening cowbells, it's a clown revving a chainsaw. Waikato Stadium is a noisy, hostile, cold, unfriendly and difficult place to win footy games. Let alone a final. As above, the Brumbies can't afford to let them home side score points early, build confidence and have the cowbells ringing them home.