Aftermarket demand for automotive components in North America is forecast to expand 2.4% per year through 2021, accelerating from the slower growth seen between 2011 and 2016. Sales will be promoted by:

growth in the size and average age of the region’s light vehicle park

gains in the average number of miles driven annually, which increases component wear

increasingly stringent regulations regarding emissions, fuel efficiency, hazardous materials, and occupant and pedestrian safety, boosting the number and value of many automotive components, and raising the stock of components that need periodic repair or replacement

rising incidence of insurance among drivers across the region, which increases the financial feasibility of replacement of parts damaged due to collision, vandalism, or roadside debris

Key Findings in the Automotive Aftermarket Study:

US to See Largest Net Gains through 2021, Mexico Fastest Growth

While the pace of market advances in the US will lag those of its neighbors, the US will still account for over 70% of North American automotive aftermarket sales gains in dollar terms through 2021. Demand will be driven by the large size of the US market, the high average number of miles driven annually, and relatively good consumer adherence to recommended maintenance schedules.

Automotive aftermarket component demand in Mexico will outpace demand in the US and Canada due to:

rising personal income levels and motor vehicle ownership

the advanced age of the country’s light vehicle park

the country’s hot climate, which increases the wear or drain on many automotive components

increasingly stringent safety standards

Mechanical Products Dominate

In 2016, mechanical products accounted for 56% of North America’s automotive aftermarket. This segment will continue to dominate industry demand through 2021, with sales buoyed by regular replacement intervals for certain products, the high per-unit costs of others, and trends toward higher-value components in general.

Professional Sales Will Post Greater, Faster Gains

Professional performer sales will account for 87% of new demand through 2021, reflecting the increasing complexity of automotive systems caused by innovation and lightweighting trends, which make DIY activity less attractive and less practical.