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Futurology/Election 2008

According to the Constitution of the United States (Article II, Sec. I), every four years a presidential candidate is picked by his party and runs for office. The one to score a majority or 270 Electoral votes becomes the new president. It is unlikely that a third party candidate or an independent will become president.

Historically speaking there have been five ways to become President:

Be a military general who wins a critical campaign that affects the very survival of the United States (aka Washington, Jackson, Grant, Eisenhower)

Be the Secretary of State.

Be a senator from a very large and critical state, especially from a "swing state" that might be critical to winning electorial votes.

Be a governor or former governor of a state.

Be the Vice-president of the United States.

Of these, being vice-president seems to have the most influence, but being governor is also quite useful. Notable governors of even smallish states like Bill Clinton (Arkansas) and Jimmy Carter (Georgia) have been able to get elected.

As for being a general, World War II was the last major war for this to have worked out in this way, although it certainly is a very good item on the resume for Colin Powell to have "won" the Gulf War in 1991, and it should be of note that no current general involved with the Iraq War is certainly commanding national attention or a likely candidate as President of the United State any time in the future.

While being senator certainly seems to be useful to getting the party nomination, there has not been a senator to become President of the United States since John F. Kennedy. Nor other than JFK anybody other than a governor or vice-president since Herbert Hoover (he was Secretary of Commerce as the highest office he held prior to being president).