“We are noticing our target type of housing in price decline, albeit slow, as our money increases in value, slowly as well but outpacing housing.”

“Here’s a true story. I’ll call it 20 REASONS THIS COOL SPRING MARKET SUCKS FOR BULLS–Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb!

1. We sold at the last peak.

2. You know what happened after that…housing skyrocketed.

3. We missed that.

4. Our half-house is now worth 165K more than when we sold. Ouch!

5. It was in a neighbourhood we hated. We decided to move every 2 years to try out neighbourhoods before we bought again.

6.. We moved. First into a crazy-expensive dream apt (condo) for a year. Unbelievable view.

7. We wanted to treat ourselves. We did.

8. We loved it but the drug dealers started moving in.

9. So it was more than OK to move out.

10. Got another condo rental. It was unbelievably unique.

11. Patio was under review when we moved in.

12. Patio repair was estimated at 6K and 6 weeks.

13. Patio repair cost landlord 11K and took 8 months. Our rent was reduced. It was one of two patios so no biggie.

14. Landlord had just paid 6K for last year’s repair.

15. We moved out on 2nd year, windows were leaking. Est. repair for building 11K-17K each unit. Plus front walkways were put on hold by 3 years of repair. Majority owner in building refused all repairs. Lawyers might have been needed. We moved.

16. Now in City managed building in OV. Great apartment.

17. Remember #4 above? “Our half-house is now worth 165K more than when we sold. Ouch!” Well, our money is now worth 433K more than when we sold.

18. We now know: no condos for us. We will get a 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 house on the westside.

19. We know the neighbourhoods we like.

20. We are noticing this type of housing in price decline, albeit slow, as our money increases in value, slowly as well but outpacing housing.”

19 responses to ““We are noticing our target type of housing in price decline, albeit slow, as our money increases in value, slowly as well but outpacing housing.””

“It shows Vancouver’s economy is really strong right now,” said Mayor Gregor Robertson. “We’ve seen a great rebound from recession numbers and a record high of building permits issued. That is great news for our city.”

This has been a wild wild day on financial markets. At one point the yen was up something like 5% against the US$. Things are getting extremely volatile. If you are heavily levered you better be very nimble because things are shifting in big, often unpredictable, ways. I’m glad I am not heavily levered to Vancouver RE right now.

Invest, don’t speculate. Buy what makes sense, sometimes that’s nothing. Let opportunities come to you, don’t chase. Wait for confirmation before increasing your position. Know where you’ll cut your losses in advance. Don’t bet more than 4-5% on any one thesis. Watch out for correlation, as that can amplify returns good and bad. Know when to sell.

On the topic of selling, some feel it is best to hold on until after a definitive trend change. This is speculative holding. Like speculative buying, it can be profitable, but this behaviour should not be equated with “investment”.

An investor does not base decisions on the psychology of the crowd. That is what speculators do.

From what I see, continuing development fees are necessary to avoid City budget shortfalls. Vancouverites are demanding this through the constant pressing for and complaining about lower property taxes. The City needs to make up the shortfall in other ways and, yes, skimming off real estate activity is an easy solution.

Agree,
With money practically free, who can blame the developers if they go crazy.
Witness Richmond, where all small to mid sized businesses are being demolished to make way for Condo towers.
It’s like a farmer who plants only one crop.

TrueStories are always wilder than fiction. Take #19, above, for example… you know, “Know your neighbourhood” – particularly sound advice for those who fear Ursus Americanus…

[CBC] – BearJacked in MapleRidge!

A Maple Ridge, B.C., resident caught an unusual sight on video this week — a bear standing on its hind legs breaking into a pickup truck. Rebecca Moore, who took the video and posted it to YouTube on Tuesday, says she and her husband were woken up by a noise outside at about 5:30 a.m. PT.

“By the time we got out of bed, [the bear] was actually inside one of our cars. We saw the car door open and it was just coming out one of our cars,” she said. “We saw him just open the door of the truck, just easy as anything … He was obviously used to accessing vehicles.”

[G&M] – B.C. town apologizes after manure used to repel homeless people

…”Homeless people living in one community in British Columbia’s Fraser Valley can rightfully argue their treatment by city officials actually stinks, according to CKNW. The City of Abbotsford’s manager has apologized after workers recently spread chicken manure on a homeless camp.

Mayor Bruce Banman was not available for comment but a municipal spokesperson did thank Vancouver’s Mayor for the ChickenManure.

“Given the nature of the brokerage system, this confirms our theory that beauty enhances an agent’s wage. More attractive agents may be using beauty to supplement, rather than to complement, other productive activities.” – Prof. Frank Mixon, Columbus State University’s Turner College of Business

…”According to a study by Frank Mixon, a professor of economics at Columbus State University’s Turner College of Business, there was a direct correlation between estate agents whose attractiveness as a mark out of 10 and the prices of properties listed over a seven-year span and the time those properties were on the market.

Those estate agents with a higher mark out of 10 had properties that were marketed with a greater price, sold for a greater price and as a result gained a greater amount of commission. The attractive estate agents also made quicker sales than those with a lower mark out of 10.”…

Based on rents, Canadian real estate is overvalued by as much as 60 per cent, the OECD says. In terms of prices to incomes, Canada fares a little bit better, but the OECD suggests the country’s real estate is still as much as 30 per cent overvalued.