There’s a pretty widespread perception that when a sportsbook sets lines, it does so based on public opinion. That is, they care less about how the game will turn out and more about taking in even money on each side of every game. That’s not actually true, however.

At one time when sports bettors were pretty square as a whole, sportsbooks could get away with setting a line based entirely on public perception simply because there were very few wise guys who could beat those lines. In a world filled with analytics and in-depth stat analysis, though, the average sports bettor has improved. A lot. Now when the brilliant minds in Vegas set lines, they do so primarily based on reality; if they set a weak line, wise guys will quickly exploit it and the squares will follow. Thus, the nature of sports betting has changed. Vegas might post a weak line now and again, but for the most part, their lines properly reflect the quality of the participating teams, meaning you have to outsmart them to win.

Check out more, including how to make money playing weekly fantasy football, in How to Cash in on the Future of the Game. Get it on Kindle, as a PDF, or in paperback.