North and South Korea must bear in mind: Trump is watching them

This invitation couldn’t have been unanticipated, however it nonetheless places South Korea in a troublesome place. It is doubtless inconceivable for President Moon to say no, however there are main dangers concerned in any talks with North Korea.

Paradoxically, there has by no means been a greater time for talks between the 2 Koreas. They each share a main curiosity — stopping the US from launching a preventive strike towards the North. However their secondary pursuits are diametrically opposed — the North hopes to interrupt the US-South Korea alliance, whereas the South hopes to strengthen it.

The Washington Put up reported that the US would help inter-Korean talks, with out preconditions, so long as the marketing campaign of most strain is maintained. US help could assist alleviate considerations about “decoupling,” the North Korean technique of splitting South Korea from its American ally, however there are nonetheless main dangers that would make the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula extra tense.

The main threat is that talks are held however fail to achieve an end result acceptable to the US. And if the US continues its insistence on denuclearization, talks will inevitably fail. The failure of talks will make it simpler for administration hawks — together with President Trump — to argue in favor of a so-called “restricted strike” towards North Korea. The failure of talks could possibly be perceived because the exhaustion of each various and could make the circumstances for preventive struggle extra favorable.

The opposite threat is that talks succeed and a “freeze for freeze” is agreed: Pyongyang agrees to not take a look at any extra missiles or nuclear gadgets and Seoul agrees to halt US-South Korean navy workout routines. This end result would verify the worst fears about President Moon within the US — that he is naive concerning the menace posed by Kim Jong Un.

Traditionally, it will be arduous to think about Washington permitting this end result, however along with President Trump being hawkish, he is additionally skeptical of American alliances and has repeatedly questioned the US-South Korea alliance. The “freeze for freeze” would additionally price Seoul help within the Pentagon, and proper now the Pentagon is essential each for sustaining the alliance and for stopping a battle.

President Moon must comply with talks in such a method that each reveals the world that he favors peace and is keen to speak with out preconditions and reveals that he is keenly conscious of the North Korean menace. His authorities ought to coordinate carefully with the Pentagon as talks proceed and guarantee that there is buy-in from US Secretary of Protection James Mattis. So long as Mattis assures the President — and the general public — that struggle is pointless, it is unlikely that Trump could have the political capital to pursue one.

As a result of the American insistence on denuclearization is prone to be maintained, the perfect end result is neither success nor failure. The perfect end result might be no end result in any respect.

President Moon ought to delay his affirmative response for so long as doable, then the inevitable protocol discussions ought to be dragged out for months, and lastly the talks ought to be steady and by no means adjourn with out a date for resumption.

Perhaps sooner or later the Trump administration will drop the insistence on denuclearization and a respectable arms management and limitation settlement may be reached. However till then, as a result of either side have a mutual curiosity in stopping the US from beginning an pointless struggle, the shared however unspoken objective ought to be to get by means of the Trump administration unscathed and to reassess the state of affairs below the subsequent US president.

It might but be that inter-Korean talks are dangerous, however President Moon must pursue them anyway. If he doesn’t, President Trump could study the flawed lesson — that even Seoul thinks speaking to the North is pointless. That ought to not make struggle inevitable, however with a President unable to see shades of grey, talks stands out as the least dangerous of dangerous choices.