Back in May we outlined the cost to the Greek economy of each day without a deal between Athens and creditors.

At the time, a report from the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Enterprises showed that 60 businesses closed and 613 jobs were lost for each business day that the crisis persisted without a resolution.

Since then, things have deteriorated further and indeed, with the imposition of capital controls, businesses found that supplier credit was difficult to come by, leading to the very real possibility that Greece would soon face a shortage of imported goods, something many Greeks clearly anticipated in the wake of the referendum call as evidenced by the lines at gas stations and empty shelves at grocery stores.

With creditors’ motorcades having officially returned to the streets of Athens in the wake of Greek lawmakers’ approval of the second set of bailout prior actions last Wednesday, tensions are understandably high.

After all, these are the same “institutions” which Yanis Varoufakis famously booted from Greece after Syriza swept to power in January, and they’ve come to represent the oppression of the Greek people and are now a symbol of the country’s debt servitude.

Although an absurd attempt was made to rebrand the dreaded “troika” earlier this year, the new and rather amorphous moniker – “the institutions” – never really stuck and perhaps because everyone involved felt the need to put a new name to the group that Greeks regard as the scourge of the Aegean in order to make negotiators feel safer on their trips to Athens, creditors have now added the ESM to their collective and rebranded themselves “The Quadriga.”

In the latest example of what happens when circular funding schemes begin to trip over each other, National Bank of Greece has refused to participate in an auction for paper issued by the bailout fund which is set to recapitalize the Greek banking sector.

Earlier today, Yanis Varoufakis reiterated his core thesis driving the entire Greek approach from day 1 of its negotiations with the Eurogroup: “Europe [stands] to lose as much as Athens if the country is forced from the euro after a referendum on Sunday on bailout terms.”

In fact – as we’ve noted for 4 years (and here and here) – the banking system is entirely insolvent. And so are most countries. The whole notion of one country bailing out another country is a farce at this point. The whole system is insolvent.

The Cyprus liquidity crisis will only lead to violence, Wide Awake News founder Charlie McGrath has told RT. The journalist warns that the Cyprus solution may serve as a model as the wider EU deals with the financial crisis.

RT:The authorities have promised to reopen the banks on Thursday – do you think Cypriots can sigh with relief now?

Charlie McGrath: No, not at all. And let’s examine the word reopen, because they are not really reopening. They are putting on all these capital restrictions on the people of Cyprus, 300 euros is the max withdrawal they can make. They can only take 3,000 maximum amount if you are going to travel. You live in Cyprus and you have relatives that live in the United States and the UK, wherever and you want to send them money – you absolutely cannot.

The so-called establishment media is talking about, there’s been enough time that has passed since the announcement of this deal that they don’t think there’re going to have a bank run but the real reason they don’t think they’re not going to have a bank run is because they are really not opening the banks. They’re going to have all type of guards and police and very limited funds that the people of Cyprus can take. So, I don’t think they should be relieved at all, nor should Europe nor the rest of the world for that manner.

RT:At this point – how do you convince panicked savers across Europe that the EU won’t dig into their accounts, next? Continue reading »

In recent days, FX desk chatter has been of rising concerns over “Germany’s New Anti-Euro Party.” ‘The Alternative for Germany’ party is set to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections in September with a clear goal: “the dissolution of the EUR in favor of national currencies or smaller currency unions.” It also demands an end to ESM payments. As evidenced by the recent vote in Italy, voting intentions in Europe are not just ultra-left or ultra-right wing anti-European, but increasingly mainstream. “Democracy is eroding. The will of the people regarding (decisions relating to the EUR) is never queried and is not represented in parliament. The government is depriving voters of a voice through disinformation…” Ultimately, as Der Spiegel notes, however, the party’s success will likely have more to do with the state of the common currency as the election approaches. Should the crisis flare up, so too could anti-euro sentiment. That sentiment in Germany now has a political home.

Anti-euro political parties in Europe in recent years have so far tended to be either well to the right of center or, as evidenced by the recent vote in Italy, anything but staid. But in Germany, change may be afoot. A new party is forming this spring, intent on abandoning European efforts to prop up the common currency. And its founders are a collection of some of the country’s top economists and academics.

Named Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), the group has a clear goal: “the dissolution of the euro in favor of national currencies or smaller currency unions.” The party also demands an end to aid payments and the dismantling of the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund. Continue reading »

With constantly changing variables in what will be the fourth and not final Greek bailout, it has been relatively difficult to pinpoint just what the “fulcrum security” is in the ongoing restructuring that is not really a cramdown bankruptcy but kinda, sorta is, and more importantly where the money will come from. A big issue that Europe has discovered with a two and a half year delay (pointed out here first, but anyone with capacity for rational thought could have grasped it at the time), is that Greece has hit the inflection point where without more, and substantial, debt forgiveness it is unviable entity, and will certainly not hike the Troika’s hard line target of 120% debt/GDP by 2020. In other words, Greece can no longer layer more debt to pay down debt. Continue reading »

Below are some of the key highlights from Kyle Bass’ latest, and as usual, must read letter:

On central banks and the final round of global monetary debasement:

Central bankers are feverishly attempting to create their own new world: a utopia in which debts are never restructured, and there are no consequences for fiscal profligacy, i.e. no atonement for prior sins. They have created Potemkin villages on a Jurassic scale. The sum total of the volatility they are attempting to suppress will be less than the eventual volatility encountered when their schemes stop working. Most refer to comments like this as heresy against the orthodoxy of economic thought. We have a hard time understanding how the current situation ends any way other than a massive loss of wealth and purchasing power through default, inflation or both. Continue reading »

A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often solicit new investors by promising to invest funds in opportunities claimed to generate high returns with little or no risk. In many Ponzi schemes, the fraudsters focus on attracting new money to make promised payments to earlier-stage investors and to use for personal expenses, instead of engaging in any legitimate investment activity

Considering that this elucidation comes from the very same entity that launched the SMP, LTRO, OMT, EFSF, ESM, oh, and of course, TARGET2, and whose head said to not short the EUR as there is “no risk” whatsoever in holding said currency, one would expect that this definition is absolutely spot on…

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And as an added bonus, here is the part in which the ECB appears to be so worried about BitCoin taking over as legitimate “legal tender” from the EUR (which the ECB’s Coeure said two days ago is as “solid and longlasting as a diamond”) it dedicated an entire report to bash the recently conceived electronic currency: Continue reading »

What does an iron chancellor have to do to be loved these days? After scrambling 7,000 members of the Greek police force out of an early prepaid retirement for her brief, still inexplicable 6 hour visit to Athens last Tuesday, which caused the now usual Syntagma square rioting, Merkel next took the stage in a rainy Stuttgart, in a show of support for the local mayor candidate Sebastian Turner, which promptly devolved into 14 minutes of continuous booing.Watch below.

More pictures from the same rally, where people apparently were not too keen on WWIII:

Officially, the ESM permanent euro-zone bailout fund is worth 500 billion euros. That, though, might not be enough, which is why euro-zone governments are now planning to introduce levers that could mobilize up to 2trillion euros, SPIEGEL has learned. Finland, though, is skeptical of the idea.

With the launch of the permanent common-currency bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), just around the corner, euro-zone member states are looking into ways to leverage the €500 billion ($647 billion) available to the fund, SPIEGEL has learned. But with Finland still concerned about the leveraging plans, it is unlikely that they will be initially included when the ESM is launched on Oct. 8.

The plan envisions the continuation of leverage instruments currently in use in the temporary euro bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Should they be applied to the ESM, the permanent fund could be able to mobilize up to €2 trillion instead of the €500 billion lending capacity it currently has — a size that would make it easier to provide emergency aid to countries as large as Spain and Italy, for example.

The euro countries prepare before one allegedly leverage the ESM permanent bailout fund. To save even large countries like Spain and Italy, as opposed to its planned 500 billion euros will be available two trillion euros.

Whether to increase the financial cushion reported the news magazine “Der Spiegel” on Monday. Model for the leverage of aid accordingly, the provisions of the predecessor fund EFSF. There are two tools in which the bailout fund with public money can only take on the most risky parts. The rest of the money will come from private investors, which must go into limited risk. However, the concept was the EFSF not apply because there are no private investors found.

According to Mario Draghi, OMT, or Outright Monetary Transactions, is a program of conditional bond buying targeted at specific countries to restore the perception of the euro’s irreversibility and stability, and repair a broken monetary policy transmission mechanism. Once launched, OMT has no ex ante limits, it is within the ECB’s price stability mandate, and it can be halted or interrupted based on achievement of its objectives or non-compliance with conditions imposed upon the targeted national government.

I would posit that OMT is much more than what the party line states. Here are some alternative interpretations for your consideration. I challenge you to refute the logic of any of them. Continue reading »

UPDATE: EURUSD unsure – but seems like ‘Unlimited’ ECB Bazooka’s trigger (ESM) is now capped at EUR190bn from Germany.The Kardinals of Karlsuhe kame through. As somewhat expected, they declined the complaint that, simply put – and among many other things, the ESM structure (i.e. German payments into it) stretches German constitutionality and can proceed to a broader vote next year – but basically – in a nutshell – there’s no coming back now. As expected there are conditions though – that the market seems perturbed by:

The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe dismissed motions that sought to block the European Stability Mechanism, while ruling Germany’s 190 billion-euro contribution can’t be increased without legislative approval. The court said Germany can ratify the ESM if it includes binding caveats that it won’t be forced to assume higher liabilities without its consent.

“We are an important step closer to our goal of stabilizing the euro,” German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler told reporters in Berlin after the ruling today. “It has always been the goal of this government” to establish a “clear limit and to include parliament in all important decisions.”

Some commentators have taken to referring to this Wednesday as “the day that could make or break the common currency”, and they’re not far off the mark. On that day, Germany’s constitutional court will announce its verdict on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent rescue fund for struggling eurozone countries. If implemented, the ESM’s share capital of €700bn would be provided by all 17 eurozone members in proportion to their economic size. Fourteen have so far ratified the treaty – Estonia, Italy and Germany are the only ones remaining.The German government has defended the ESM treaty, claiming it would fix Germany’s maximum liability at €190bn, and that the Bundestag would retain control over the grant of further assistance. Either German politicians have not read the treaty they have signed, or they do not understand its small print, for there is little in the document that supports their interpretation. Because the ESM is plainly unlawful.

For example, article 25(2) of the treaty states that members are jointly liable for any losses arising from loans made by the ESM. That means if one or more of the ESM members fail to meet their agreed financial contributions, the other members are liable for the shortfall. That situation is already a reality, because Greece and Portugal are unable to make any contribution.

Draghi was then vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International and a member of the firm-wide management committee (2002–2005). A controversy existed on his duties while employed at Goldman Sachs. Pascal Canfin (MEP) asserted Draghi was involved in swaps for European governments, namely Greece, trying to disguise their countries’ economic status.

The European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled its boldest attempt yet to stabilise the battered single currency on Thursday when its president, Mario Draghi, announced a new programme of open-ended, unlimited buying of distressed government bonds.

The scheme is aimed at depressing the costs of borrowing for Spain and Italy and countering the risks of a fragmentation of the eurozone and the unravelling of the single currency.

But Draghi also set strict terms for triggering the bond-buying programme, putting pressure on the eurozone’s political leaders to request help, enter austerity programmes, and agree on direct bailouts for struggling governments before the ECB will act.

Draghi brushed aside strong resistance from Germany’s powerful Bundesbank, which lodged the only vote against the new policy in the ECB’s 23-strong governing council, to come good on his pledge in London six weeks ago that the central bank would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.

Yesterday, when Bloomberg leaked every single detail of today’s ECB announcement, which thus means today’s conference was not a surprise at all, yet the market sure would like to make itself believe it was, we noted that everything that was leaked, and today confirmed, came from a Goldman memorandum issued hours before. Simply said everything that happens at the ECB gets its marching orders somewhere within the tentacular empire headquartered at 200 West. Which is why when it comes to the definitive summary of what “happened” today, we go to the firm that pre-ordained today’s events weeks ago. Goldman Sachs.Perhaps the most important part is this: “September 13-14: Spain to make formal request for EFSF support at the Eurogroup meeting. With a large (and uncovered) redemption looming at the end of October (and under pressure from other Euro area governments), we expect Spain to move towards seeking support.” In other words, Rajoy has one more week before he is sacked and the Spanish festivities begin. Continue reading »

Summer vacation is over and things are about to get very interesting in Europe. Most Americans don’t realize this, but much of Europe shuts down for the entire month of August. I wish we had something similar in the United States. But now millions of Europeans are returning from their extended family vacations and the fun is about to begin. During August economic conditions continued to degenerate in Europe, but I figured that it wouldn’t be until after August that the European debt crisis would take center stage once again. And as I wrote about last week, if there is going to be a financial panic, it typically happens in the fall. The stock market has seen quite a nice rally over the summer, and many investors are nervous that we could see a significant “correction” very soon. The month of September has been the absolute worst month for stock performance over the past 50 years, and it has also been the absolute worst month for stock performance over the past 100 years as well. Of course that does not guarantee that anything is going to happen this year. But things in Europe continue to get worse. Unemployment rates are spiking, manufacturing activity is slowing down, housing prices are crashing and major financial institutions are failing. What is happening in Europe right now appears to be an even worse version of what happened to the United States back in 2008. Continue reading »

Some hours ago Spain finally bit the bullet, and after months of waffling had no choice but to hand over €4.5 billion (the first of many such cash rescues) in the form of a bridge loan to insolvent Bankia, which last week reported staggering losses (translation: huge deposit outflows which have made the fudging of its balance sheet impossible). As a reminder, in June Spain formally announced it would request up to €100 billion in bailout cash for its insolvent banking system, which subsequently was determined would come from the bank rescue fund, the Frob, which in turn would be funded with ESM debt which subordinates regular Spanish bonds, promises to the contrary by all politicians (whose job is to lie when it becomes serious) notwithstanding. And while Rajoy has promised that the whole €100 billion will not be used, the truth is that considering the soaring level of nonperforming loans in Spain – the biggest drain of both bank capital and liquidity – it is guaranteed that the final funding need for Spain’s banks will be far greater. As a further reminder, Deutsche Bank calculated that when (not if) the recap amount hits €120 billion, Spanish total debt/GDP would soar to 97% in 2014 from an official number of 68.5% in 2011 (luckily the endspiel will come far sooner than that). But all of that is well-known, and what we wanted to focus on instead was the fact that bank bailout notwithstanding, Spain will have no choice but to demand a full blown rescue within a few short months for one simple reason: its cash will run out.Continue reading »

The ESM can buy directly from euro zone countries to provide them with government bonds or loans. This allowed the ECB officially not the EU Treaty. However, it emphasizes the federal government sees the ESM prior to a cap of 700 billion euros and limited the German share of it applies to “only” 190 billion euros. Apparently reading the Parties from politicians not or do not understand the details. The ESM is clearly illegal.

Hans-Werner Sinn is Professor of Economics at the University of Munich and President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. He also serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. Hi… Full profile

Europe and the world are eagerly awaiting the decision of Germany’s Constitutional Court on September 12 regarding the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the proposed permanent successor to the eurozone’s current emergency lender, the European Financial Stability Mechanism. The Court must rule on German plaintiffs’ claim that legislation to establish the ESM would violate Germany’s Grundgesetz (Basic Law). If the Court rules in the plaintiffs’ favor, it will ask Germany’s president not to sign the ESM treaty, which has already been ratified by Germany’s Bundestag (parliament). Continue reading »

The first five years of the global crisis are over, investors flee from complex financial products and into gold, silver and commodities. Experts warn against a false sense of security. “We should not give us the illusion that the crisis will soon be over,” says Patrick Artus of the French bank Natixis. Years of negative developments such as the growing debt, or the de-industrialization of specific sectors should now be reversed. “Such a process takes time.” Arthur looks to get politically and economically unstable savers years. “Investors have to live with depressed markets and considerable fluctuations learn.” In his view, it must not remain in a lost decade. “The euro crisis may also last 20 years,” says Arthur.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Saturday that there were limits to the aid that could be granted to Greece and said the crisis-stricken country should not expect to be granted another programme.”It is not responsible to throw money into a bottomless pit,” Schaeuble said at a government open day in Berlin. “We cannot create yet another new programme.”

Euro-currency area countries are evaluating a multitude of reform options, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the plans.

These are to be whittled down into a coherent strategy in the “coming weeks”. If Greece exits, members will boost plans to support other vulnerable countries. Options include increasing aid to Ireland and Portugal. ECB would consider supporting Italy and Spain through bond purchases. Greece’s new start would be supported by EU funding. These questions will be discussed “in the autumn”.

Deutsche Bank Among Four Said to Be in U.S. Laundering Probe – Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) is among four European banks being investigated by U.S. regulators for alleged money-laundering violations, according to an attorney with knowledge of the matter. Federal regulators, including the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the Federal Reserve, the Justice Department and the New York District Attorney’s office are all involved in the probe of Deutsche Bank and three other European banks, said the attorney, who asked not to be identified because the investigations are confidential.

German Industry Group Head says No Place for Greece in Eurozone: WiWo (via Bloomberg)

If Greece doesn’t meet IMF and EU requirements, it must leave the euro, Hans-Peter Keitel, president of Germany’s BDI industry federation, says in an interview with Wirtschaftswoche magazine. Keitel previously said Greece must stay in the euro at all costs: WiWo

Keitel says clear progress is being made in combating the euro crisis. The German federal government is not ambitious enough in its savings program, Keitel says.

Both types of banks would still be dependent on market confidence, Lautenschlaeger says. Lautenschlaeger favors an investigation into the relationship between lenders and those banks which trade in unregulated financial products.

Westerwelle Opposes Relaxing Greek Aid Terms: Tagesspiegel

Relaxation of the agreed on terms for Greek assistance would be misunderstood by countries such as Spain, German Foreign Minister and FDP member Guido Westerwelle told Tagesspiegel am Sonntag in interview.

Spanish prime minister would have difficulty passing reforms in parliament if terms were eased for Greece, Westerwelle says. Westerwelle gives his “solidarity” to the people of Greece. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to visit Berlin on Friday

And just to prove that Europe’s beggars continue to refuse to get the memo…

The European Central Bank must take forceful and unlimited steps to buy sovereign debt to help Spain reduce its refinancing costs and eliminate doubts over the euro zone’s future, Spain’s economy minister said in comments published on Saturday. “There can be no limit set or at least (the ECB) can’t say how much they will use or for how long,” when it buys bonds in the secondary markets, Luis de Guindos told Spanish news agency EFE.

France and southern European nations are in favor of a third rescue package for Greece should it prove necessary, Welt reports, without saying where it got the information. Germany rejects a new rescue package. Germany opposes giving Greece more time to enact cost cuts. Preparations underway for Greece possibly leaving the euro. Main consideration is how to protect other euro crisis countries from the fallout.

Just as we were complaining about lack of newsflow, here comes Germany, coincidentally just as Merkel comes back from vacation, with an update from Karlsruhe that the Constitutional court, which may reject the ESM as is in its September 12th decision, will likely be delayed even more following the filing of a brand new lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the ESM.

The Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe has received a further appeal against the euro rescue package, which could upset the timetable for the euro rescue. According to information from Reuters Online, a group of plaintiffs to the € critic Professor Markus Kerber has filed a constitutional complaint, including an emergency petition. The key message is: Since the last ten days at the European Court in Luxembourg, the complaint is similar to an Irish MPs to decide, the German judges would wait until the spoke on the matter higher court judgment. The original date expected for an announcement, the 12th September, at which they would decide on the fast track in terms of admissibility of ESM and Fiscal Pact was likely untenable.

While Frau Merkel remains beach-bound somewhere, hence the lack of ‘Neins’ recently, her deputy chancellor Michael Fuchs made it unequivocally clear this morning in a Handelsblatt interview that Germany had “reached the limit of its capacity” over additional EFSF payments to Greece and reiterated the double-whammy that the ESM should NOT receive a banking license and that the ECB should NOT act as “money printing press in disguise” by extending emergency loans and bypassing EFSF/ESM. A decision about whether Greece should be given the second tranche of its loan will not be made until October, after the Troika finalizes its first review of the second rescue program in September. However, BNP Paribas notes that there have been a couple of developments worth noting over the past week and more are likely in the coming weeks. Continue reading »