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Monday, 19 July 2010

I had a bet with someone yesterday about how long the coalition government will last. They were convinced that it would not go beyond the end of May 2011. I on the other hand expect it to go the full distance and to end on 7th May 2015 as the government has indicated.

It made me think however that it might be fun to have a sweepstake type thing (albeit you don't need to pay any money in). Just pop the date upon which you think the coalition government will end in the comments below, along with your reason(s) why it will not last beyond that date. The winner will be the one who gets closest to the actual date. They will be lauded as predicting King/Queen of the internets and I will also provide a prize.

Because the date the government has already stipulated is 7th May 2015, you are not allowed to pick it and if it does go the full distance then this sweepstake is off. It is only for dates that fall outside the official timetable.

You should also note that there does not need to be a general election for the government to end. It is possible that the Queen will not grant a dissolution in the event of government collapse. We are just looking for the date that this particular government in its current form (i.e. combination of Conservatives and Lib Dems) ceases to be. If the PM and/or Deputy PM change but remain from the current parties (Tory for PM, LD for DPM) then this will not be considered the end of the coalition.

I will close the comments after a week as I do not want "predictions" popping in there in a year or two's time perhaps when it has become obvious that things have changed quite radically!

19 comments:

Well I think there's a great chance the coalition will end but if it doesn't then I think it will be because of a tactic from Tories or Libs to call it off to distance themselves from each other so I'm going to be a little boring and go for May 2014 4 years

The worst case scenario is that on 5th May 2011 it all goes pear shaped.

Consider: a lost AV referendum, a near massacre of Lib Dem councillors and Scottish Parliament members in the local elections, on top of the cuts biting savagely triggers a full-scale rebellion in Lib Dem ranks

Yeah, it'll either be 5th May 2011 or 7th May 2015. If the latter it may even be 7th May 2010, though I sincerely hope not (I'm not at all comfortable working with Tories right now, and wouldn't want the coalition to last more than one term).

February 2013. After two sets of increasingly bad election results and a stormy federal conference in autumn 2012, held against the backdrop of a second dip recession, mass unemployment, industrial unrest and urban rioting, the long knives are finally drawn and Clegg is deposed by his MPs during the winter of discontent of 2012/13. The new leader takes the party out of the coalition.

Our local party were looking forward to a year off from elections in 2012, so under the law of sod, it will be 3rd May 2012 to create an infinitous exhausting campaign trail not knowing who we can object against or support.

7th May 2015. The incentives for it to last that long are overwhelming, and it should be enshrined in law by then. The Government will not lose a confidence vote, and that's the only way they could fall.

I'll put a side bet on 7th May 2014 (or, strictly speaking, the nearest Thursday to that). I think that's less likely, but there's a small possibility that the legislation could be amended so that the fixed-term parliament is four years rather than five - I understand that's Labour's position, shared by a lot of Tory and Lib Dem backbenchers, and it wouldn't involve a major loss of face or require a change of principles to back down on this.

About 17:34 today would be my own personal choice, but as the electoral system has been fiddled to provide stronger government or dictatorship depending on which way you look at it - I fully expect a full term.

However, in the spirit of this kind of thing, I always go with the middle-ish bit's for some kind of statistical advantage nonsense so...

My money's on it lasting the whole Parliament (so May 2015) for no other reason than they're too proud to admit otherwise, I think we'll have a majority one way or the other after the next election. If someone's already said that I'll say two months after the local and devolved government elections next year, that's the big challenge for them to overcome.

The government will come to a welcome end on: 16th of January 2011. Because that's my birthday. And this lunatic farrago coming to an end will be the best birthday present I ever had. Sadly however the libdems support will by that time be in single figures in the polls and, anticipating a may-meltdown in council elections and in the Scottish parliament there will be mass a show of mass dissent and wearing of sabdals in parliament square. Shortly after the party will split, with Nick Clegg's Orange Book Liberals rejoining the conservative party, while the Liberal Democrats, under their new leader Simon Hughes, will renounce capitalism and shrink back into a small hinterland between Bermondsey old town and Southwark cathedral. Then, following a very bloody spring Spring Conference in Harrogate in 2013 Howard Sykes will seize control in in the North with Sandra Gidley commanding the forces of the Southern Libdems - leading ultimately to the infamous battle of Liverpool in 2014 when the party is ultimately reunited under a progressive coalition thanks to the liberal intervention of the cider-democrats Somerset and North Cornwall militia - and rhen will follow the signng the treaty of Kemp's pen, in a small pub in toxteth. In the general election of 2015 the newly reunited lib dems will win no seats at all. However, Nick Clegg will win his Sheffield constituency for the renamed Big Conservatives and become party leader the following November. I think that's about it. Well you did ask.......

Three stabs at this.Scenario 1: Tories mess with referendum bill and stick in 60% of total electorate hurdle for AV to pass. Coalition ends about Feb 2011.Scenario 2: Referendum held in May 2011 but AV loses. Few months of trying to cope with fallout, ending after party conferences. Coalition ends October 2011.Scenario 3: Referendum held and AV passes. Coalition ends formally May 2015, informally Feb 2015 to allow time for the general election campaign.

I actually think most likely case is that it'll all stay (reasonably) rosy right the way through until 2015 (what happens then is anyone's guess). Seeing as we're not allowed to guess that, however, I'll have a stab at something else.

I think losing the referendum (a distinct possibility, given the mainstream media hostility) could be the catalyst for unrest - if it all falls through, that may give the Tories confidence to push through some rather unpopular things, and things will creak in the months following that. Seeds of doubt may be sown at autumn conference 2011. So I'll pick an arbitrary date a few weeks after that: my final answer is...

a) the AV referendum is lostb) Clegg is knifed, eventually to defect to the Conservatives with Alexander and Lawsc) a leadership contest is triggered, and won by king-over-the-water Charlie Kennedy, who removes the party from the coalition within a week