IN and FL could go either way, but Dems have a slight lead in flipping IN, and the GOP a little more lead than Dems in IN in holding FL.

The Dems have a tiny edge in flipping NH. (Ayotte should’ve listened when Collins told Ayotte to keep her distance from Trump. She didn’t, and hung herself in stating Trump “absolutely” was a role model for her daughters.).

NC, PA, MO and NV are dead heats, but since Reid is retiring, Dems need one elsewhere if they lose NV.

IL, WI, IN, NH, and either hold NV or win one other tossups will do it. (My speculation that AZ, IA and OH could be in play hasn’t panned out.)

All in all 538 has the chance of 50 Dem Senate seats at 68.7% The odds for Dem control had been generally in the high 50’s for over a month until the debates and the Bush bomb, when the sport showed us his magic.