My system says Carolina will beat Philly by 4 pts..so I agree on this single game this week.

However,

I crunched this site's win probability predictions for weeks 4 through today...For any team with a win probability of 0.51 or greater the record is 68 wins and 47 wins or about 59.1%.

You guys in the pick-em leagues can achieve a better win ratio by simply picking the vegas favorite on every game every week...65% win ratio. Weight your confidence pts by the vegas pt spread (e.g. 1 confidence pt for a 1 pt favorite, 16 confidence pts for a 12 pt favorite) and you will get 74% of all pts, using the last 4 seasons as a data set.

Using picks for the plurality of yahoo users playing pro football pickem the record for all 12 weeks is 107-55 or 66%.

Using ESPN Accuscore free advisor the record was 103-56 or 64.7%

Has this Weekly Win Probability performed at a 59% rate in 2011,2010,2009, and 2008?

@BBurkeESPN

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