Forecast: Buses, trains, carpools

People are not pulling up to the gas pump as much as they used to, which means the days of unending road expansion in Florida likely are over.

Instead, Floridians could well see more buses, trains and carpooling in the future, said Kathleen Neill, director of planning and policy for the state Department of Transportation.

"We need to start thinking differently," Neill told a room full of government and transit officials gathered Wednesday in downtown Orlando to discuss the state road agency's proposed budget for the next five years.

More than 80 percent of Florida's transportation budget comes from gas taxes, but rising prices have resulted in reduced consumption. With a nationwide push on for more fuel-efficient cars, Florida DOT managers figure the money they will have to spend could be less than in the past.

In fact, they are counting on having $36.2 billion through the summer of 2014, more than $7 billion less than the $43.5 billion they had in the five-year plan adopted in 2007. The plan is updated annually.

The biggest portion of the budget, at $16.2 billion, goes for operations, maintenance and safety. Only $13.8 billion is set aside for new projects, with the remaining amount, about $6.2 billion, promised for debt payments and support services.

"We need to think of solutions for mobility beyond just highways," Neill said. A prime example of that mind-set was what happened late last year in Miami- Dade, where the old car-pool lane of a sevenmile stretch on Interstate 95 was set aside for cars willing to pay up to $3.75 in tolls. The lane also is free to hybrids, buses, motorcycles and registered car pools with three or more occupants.

The lane raised $1.4 million during its first four months - the money going for buses and operations - and resulted in vehicles going faster in the express lanes, at 56 mph, as well as the regular lanes, at 41 mph, during rush hour. The old car-pool lane used to check in at 27 mph and the regular lanes at 20 mph.

Florida DOT also is supporting the $1.2 billion Sun- Rail commuter train through Central Florida. It would run from DeLand in Volusia County through downtown Orlando to Poinciana in Osceola County.

Adding one lane to I-4 from DeLand to near Poinciana would cost $7 billion. Florida DOT already has committed $4 billion to widen I-4 from Kirkman Road south of downtown to State Road 436 in Altamonte Springs.

But I-4, Neill said, is "maxed out" through downtown.

"You can't continue to widen roads," she said. "Look at I-4. How much more can you widen it?"