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Thursday, 10 August 2017

An update on events surrounding North Korea

This is the state of play at present with regard to North Korea. Highly volatile because Trump is issuing bellicose threats from the golf course which Kim responds to with his own threats. In the meantime you have Tillerson trying to calm things down while "Mad Dog" Mattis is stirring things up.Meanwhile the British press is raising the possibility of nuclear war.I shall post from various sources from different points-of-view so you can make up your mind as best you can what the hell is going on and what might happen.

A
"Furious" North Korea Threatens "Simultaneous Strike"
On Guam By Mid-August

So
much for Rex Tillerson's tepid attempt to de-escalate Trump's "fire
and fury" statement.

Moments
ago, the state run-KCNA news agency issued a statement in which it
cited a commander of the Korean People's Army according to whom
President Donald Trump's threat was a "load of nonsense,"
it failed to grasp the "grave situation," and said that
"sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason
and only absolute force can work on him," referring to Trump’s
comments about unleashing "fire and fury."

Reaffirming
its intentions to strike Guam, N. Korea said it is "seriously
examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through
simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic
ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major
military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S."
Noting that it is getting exhausted and angry with Trump's "load
of nonsense", the General said that Trump's threats are
"extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong
artillerymen of the KPA."

"The
KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August
and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and
wait for his order" and N. Korea will closely watch U.S. "speech
and behavior."

Turning
the tables on Trump's statement that only harsh language can work on
Kim Jong Un, N.Korea responded that "sound dialogue is not
possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can
work on him."

The
North Korean statement also says the military action its army "is
about to take" will be effective for restraining America's
"frantic moves" in and near the southern part of the Korean
Peninsula. Hinting that Pyongyang will continue planning an attack,
the General adds that "the military action the KPA is about to
take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of
the U.S. in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its
vicinity. "

It
said that North Korea will complete a plan by mid-August for the
"historic enveloping fire at Guam," convey it to the
commander in chief of its nuclear force and then "wait for his
order." North Korea says it will "keep closely watching the
speech and behavior of the U.S." The army General explains that
"this unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in
certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them
witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists."

And,
in a surprising tangent, the statement goes so far as to give details
of the flight plan its ICBMs will take, which will be right above
Japan, hardly a detail that Tokyo will be excited about:

The
Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above
Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3
356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from
Guam.

Finally,
the KPA Strategic Force said it will finally complete the Guam attack
plan by mid-August, so it may be the case that North Korea will
launch one if not more Hwasong-12 rockets in the coming weeks.

*
* *

The
full KCNA statement is below:

Pyongyang,
August 10 (KCNA) General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic
Force of the Korean People's Army, released the following statement
on August 9:

As
already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously
examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through
simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic
ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major
military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.

On
Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman
fully warned the U.S. against its all-round sanctions on the DPRK and
moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the U.S. president at
a gold links again let out a load of nonsense about "fire and
fury," failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is
extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong
artillerymen of the KPA.

It
seems that he has not yet understood the statement.

Sound
dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only
absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the
service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.

The
military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy
for restraining the frantic moves of the U.S. in the southern part of
the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.

The
Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a
strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible
might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force
of the Workers' Party of Korea and the world, strongest strike
service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the U.S.
imperialist bases of aggression.

The
Strategic Force is also considering the plan for opening to public
the historic enveloping fire at Guam, a practical action targeting
the U.S. bases of aggression.

This
unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory
and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched
plight of the U.S. imperialists.

The
Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above
Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly
3356.7 km for 1065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from
Guam.

The
KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August
and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and
wait for his order.

We
keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.

The
bottom line is that while Trump expects Kim to relent, the North
Korean leader clearly has no plans to do that, and demands the same
from Trump, which also won't happen. How this crisis is resolved in a
peaceful, diplomatic way under these conditions remains unknown, if
not impossible.

The
crisis is getting more tense, but there is still no telling if it
will amount to anything.

North
Korean media has announced that the leadership is finalising plans
for hitting Guam with intermediate range missiles which are
apparently to be launched in mid-August.

Sputnik
quotes General Kim Rak Gyom who said the following to North Korean
media,

“The
Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA (Korean People’s Army)
will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of
Japan.

They
will fly 3,356.7 km (2,085.8 miles) for 1,065 seconds and hit the
waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam”.

Several
things are curious about this statement.

First
of all, by stating that the preparations for the attack to apparently
take place in mid-August are being made now, North Korea seems to be
validating the Russian statement that it takes a significant amount
of time for North Korea to launch missiles that countries like
Russia, China and the US can generally launch in a matter of seconds
or at the very most, a matter of hours, depending on the kind of
warhead payload attacked to the missile in question.

Secondly,
by telling the United States that it plans to launch an attack in the
direction of Guam, the crucial element of surprise is totally lost.

North
Korea further stated that Trump’s remarks threatening to hit north
Korea with “fire and fury” the likes the world “has never seen
before”, amount to “A load of nonsense”.

North
Korea further stated that Donald Trump is only capable of
understanding force, because he is “bereft of reason”. Such
statements far from being classic North Korean rhetoric soudn a great
deal like commentators on CNN and op-ed pieces in the Washington
Post, New York Times and Guardian.

Sputnik
reports,

“Pyongyang
also said that America’s “frantic moves” on the Korean
Peninsula will be reined by the action the North’s military “is
about to take.”

First
the communist nation will develop a plan for the historic “enveloping
fire at Guam,” communicate the nuclear force of the attack to Kim,
then, “wait for is order.”

The
DPRK has said it will “keep closely watching the speech and
behavior of the US.”

Earlier
today, US Secretary of State James Mattis warned the North in a
statement that they should “cease any consideration of actions that
would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its
people.”

He
added, “While our State Department is making every effort to
resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted
that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise,
rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth.
The DPRK regime’s actions will continue to be grossly overmatched
by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates.”

Either
this is the ultimate test of brinkmanship on both sides, or the
world’s most dangerous game of chicken. This comes as Russia, China
and Philippines repeat calls for dialogue as the only safe and
sensible way forward.

With
anxiety briefly ticking down on The New York Times story about
Trump's "fire and fury" comments being off-the-cuff - as
opposed to policy - The Pentagon just turned the dial back on the
threats

Defense
Secretary James Mattis warned North Korea in stark terms on Wednesday
that it faces devastation if it does not end its pursuit of nuclear
weapons: "The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and
stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons," Mattis said in a
statement adding "The DPRK should cease any consideration of
actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction
of its people."

Mattis's
comments echo Trump's bellicose outburst on Tuesday in which he
warned North Korea of "fire and fury" if it takes
aggressive steps toward the United States.

Some
have suggested that Mattis' remarks could be part of a coordinated
effort with the White House to send a tough signal to both North
Korea and China. As a reminder, North Korea's initial response was to
call Trump's cluff, warning later on Tuesday it could launch an
attack on Guam.

Mattis
makes note of Trump’s involvement in the tense situation and writes
that the president “was informed of the growing threat last
December and on taking office his first orders to me emphasized the
readiness of our ballistic missile defense and nuclear deterrent
forces.”

Mattis
also underscored a pointe made by Rex Tillerson earlier, in which he
said that Trump was seeking to send a "strong message" to
Kim Jong Un.

"The
United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and
unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack,"
he wrote.

"While our State Department is making every effort to
resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted
that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise,
rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth,"
he said in the statement. "The DPRK regime's actions will
continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms
race or conflict it initiates."

The
full Pentagon statement is below:

"The
United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and
unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack.

Kim
Jong Un should take heed of the United Nations Security Council's
unified voice, and statements from governments the world over, who
agree the DPRK poses a threat to global security and stability.

The
DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit
of nuclear weapons. The DPRK should cease any consideration of
actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction
of its people.

President
Trump was informed of the growing threat last December and on taking
office his first orders to me emphasized the readiness of our
ballistic missile defense and nuclear deterrent forces.

While
our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global
threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted that the combined
allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust
defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth.

The
DPRK regime's actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours
and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates."

ANDERSEN
AIR FORCE BASE, Guam — Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on
Wednesday defended President Trump’s forceful warning to North
Korea to stop threatening the United States, but attempted to dismiss
concerns that Guam is in any imminent danger from Pyongyang’s
missiles.

“What
the president is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in
language that Kim Jong Un would understand, because he doesn’t seem
to understand diplomatic language,” Tillerson said in an interview
with two pool reporters while flying from Malaysia to a scheduled
refueling stop in Guam.

“I
think the president just wanted to be clear to the North Korean
regime that the U.S. has the unquestionable ability to defend itself,
will defend itself and its allies, and I think it was important that
he deliver that message to avoid any miscalculation on their part.”

On
Tuesday, Trump sharply ratcheted up rhetoric against North Korea,
saying it would face “fire and fury” if it does not stop
threatening the United States. Trump did not make clear whether he
was responding to the latest bellicose remarks from North Korea or a
report in The Washington Post that the North had successfully
produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead capable of fitting inside its
ballistic missiles.

Hours
after Trump’s comments, North Korea said it was preparing to send
intermediate-range missiles near Guam, which is home to more than
160,000 U.S. citizens, including some 6,000 members of the armed
forces. U.S. bombers have flown out of Guam on their way to joint
exercises with South Korea and Japan over the Korean Peninsula.

Tillerson
is returning home from Asia, where he continued his campaign to get
more countries fully enforcing U.N. sanctions against North Korea
over its ballistic missile and nuclear testing, with an ultimate aim
of forcing it to the bargaining table.

During
Tillerson’s stop in Guam — which included brief meetings with
some U.S. military personnel — Trump called attention to the might
of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In Twitter posts, Trump did not
specifically mention North Korea, but the messages came as attention
was focused on the confrontation with Pyongyang.

Trump
asserted that U.S. nuclear power was “now far stronger and more
powerful than ever” after his administration moved to “renovate
and modernize” the arsenal.

“Hopefully
we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time
that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!” Trump
wrote.

While
Pyongyang has been making bombastic threats against the United States
for some time, as the pace of its testing has accelerated its
warnings have grown more specific and directed against the United
States.

On
Monday in Manila, where Tillerson was attending a regional security
conference, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho issued a lengthy
statement vowing that his country would never relinquish its nuclear
weapons. Ri said the “nukes” would be used only against the
United States, and he asserted that the entire U.S. mainland is
within range of North Korean missiles.

Tillerson
said Guam is in no more danger than anywhere else, adding that North
Korea’s threats naming the island as a target did not deter him
from making a scheduled refueling stop here.

“Well,
the North Korean missile capability can point at many directions,”
he said. “So Guam is not the only place that can be under threat.
No, I never considered rerouting the trip back. And I do not believe
that there is any imminent threat, in my own view.”

Tillerson
said North Korea’s rhetoric shows that the campaign to turn
Pyongyang’s allies against it is working.

Russia
and China, North Korea’s main economic lifelines, both supported a
new set of U.N. sanctions passed last weekend that could cut the
country’s revenue by a third. And the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations approved a statement expressing “grave concern”
over North Korea’s actions.

In
Washington, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis added to the competing
messages of military resolve and diplomatic hope from the Trump
administration. Mattis also emphasized the “unified voice” from
the U.N. Security Council on North Korea.

“While
our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global
threat through diplomatic means,” Mattis said in a statement, “it
must be noted that the combined allied militaries now possess the
most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive
capabilities on Earth.”

Tillerson
said he knew of no significant changes in the last 24 hours that
could speed a move to military action. Nor does he see any reason for
a change in strategy. Diplomatic and economic isolation is working,
he said, even if it could take a long time to materialize.

“I
think in fact the pressure is starting to show,” he said. “I
think that’s why the rhetoric coming out of Pyongyang has gotten
louder and more threatening.”

Tillerson
also said Americans should not worry about the increasingly angry
tone displayed in recent days.

“I
think what the president was just reaffirming is that the United
States has the capability to fully defend itself from any attack, and
our allies, and we will do so,” he said. “So the American people
should sleep well at night.”

Key
U.S. allies, meanwhile, called for a greater push to open talks with
North Korea.

The
spokeswoman for E.U. foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said “a
lasting peace and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula must be
achieved through peaceful means.”

“That
excludes military action,” said the spokeswoman, Catherine Ray.

In
New Zealand, Prime Minister Bill English called Trump’s comments
“not helpful” in a standoff that was already “very tense.”