Smartphones like the Apple iPhone, the BlackBerry, and Windows Mobile and Windows Mobilebased devices represent the next major computing platform. But how will that platform cohere? Nokia bigwig Bob Ianucci recently compared the smartphone phenomenon with the way the mainframe, mini-computer, and PC markets developedand what it took for them to succeed. He pointed out that when mainframes first came to market there were a lot of playersControl Data, GE, Honeywell, IBM, RCA, and so onand all had their own approaches and operating systems with very little commonality between them. He called that era the golden age of mainframes, but it was more like the Wild West. Once standards were in place, people could write software for these various mainframes, which in turn led the market to expand. With that, the value shifted to software and eventually services. But at best, this market amounted to less than 100 computers sold during this time.

Ianucci also examined the mini-computer market. Its golden age was dominated by incompatible systems from Apollo, Data General, DEC, Prime, and Wang. But once they standardized on Digital Equipment's environments, there was a buildup of compatible hardware that the software community was able to support in the way of all types of new mini-computing applications. With this move the software was now where the value resided, followed by a value shift to services. Now the total available market ran in the thousands instead of just a hundred or so.

Not surprisingly, the same pattern can be used to show the development of the PC market. It started out with various incompatible systems from Apple, Atari, DEC, Commodore, Hewlett-Packard, NEC, Osborne, Sinclair, Texas Instruments, and even Wang. But once the market standardized on IBM's PC and Microsoft's OS, compatible hardware came out from Compaq, Dell, HP, and others, allowing the software community to drive the next real value propositions. Today services are where the real money is made. Now the market for PCs is in the hundreds of millions annually.

Ianucci posited that we are in the golden age of "the mobile PC"the multitude of handheld devices offering various levels of complexity, expectation, and opportunity. But when you look at the mobile PC in the context of the evolution of the mainframe, mini-computer, and PC, you can see that incompatibility reigns in the golden age. For this market to really take off it needs standards in hardware and optimized operating systems. This will be followed by strong support from the software development community, which will create software applications and link them to some type of services.

Ianucci's view of the evolution of the mainframe, mini-computer, and PC markets is spot-on, but trying to apply this logic to the mobile PC market may be more difficult. For one, because of the creativity and innovation that drives the designs of the handsets themselves, it's not likely that we will standardize around a hardware platform as in the past. That standardization will have to come from the OS instead. In that sense, we are now in the "Wild West" of mobile PC operating systems. Each platform is vying to become an industry standard, the way that Microsoft's Windows was needed to deliver a consistent computing experience for the PC that software developers could support.

Look at the mobile operating systems available today: Apple's OS X, Google's Android, Microsoft's Windows Mobile, Nokia's Symbian, Qualcomm's Brew, RIM's BlackBerry, Palm's current OS and its future Linux OS and Limo. As a software developer, which do you backsince in most cases, it's impossible to support all of them? If history repeats itself, perhaps only two or three will really thrive. By the way, while 275 to 300 million PCs are being sold each year, annual sales of cell phones amount to about 1.2 billion, and many researchers believe that the worldwide market for smartphones or mobile PCs will represent as much as 70 percent of the cell phones sold annually by 2013.

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that Apple's platform will be one of the major ones. And given its incredible lead in this area now, Apple will force its competitors to follow its lead in hardware and software designs just to stay competitive. I also believe that Nokia's sheer market strength will make Symbian another major OS. And Microsoft already has a strong position with the Windows Mobile platform; I'd be surprised if the company doesn't optimize this OS for a broader world market for smartphones.

So if history is our guide, the next big step for these mobile PCs will be to standardize around robust operating systems that the software community can support. This will make software the major impetus for market growth, followed by connected services that deliver all types of new ways to use these gizmos in the future.

Tim Bajarin is one of the leading analysts working in the technology industry today. He is president of Creative Strategies (www.creativestrategies.com), a research company that produces strategy research reports for 50 to 60 companies annuallya roster that includes semiconductor and PC companies, as well as those in telecommunications, consumer electronics, and media. Customers have included AMD, Apple, Dell, HP, Intel, and Microsoft, among many others. You can e-mail him directly attim@creativestrategies.com.

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts, and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba, and numerous others. Mr. Bajarin is known as a concise, futuristic analyst, credited with predicting the desktop publishing revolution three years before it...
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