Browsing Posts tagged Republican establishment

Don’t Count Chickens When Deluged with Hatching Black Swans!

and

A Note To Republican Delegates

Counting chickens: This phrase comes from the saying “Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched!” which means do not conclude that you have something before you actually have it in hand.

Black swans: This is a political science concept based on the fact that most swans are white, and black swans were thought not to exist at all. In actual fact, black swans do exist, but are very, very rare. The political phrase refers to Black Swan events as very rare events that are completely unexpected, yet they transform history as we know it and make history completely unpredictable.

Don’t Count Chickens!

So today, in the very unpredictable political climate that seems to change direction radically by the day during this 2016 Presidential election, we should not be concluding or forecasting anything at all until all the rare, unpredictable events have finished arriving. We should not count chickens when we are in the midst of a cygnet (baby swan) hatching explosion!

So what should we do? Nothing?

What should we do faced with one political shocker after another? Nothing?
No, we can soak in events, analyze them logically, and see if they fit into a pattern or frame of reference that we can make sense of.
You probably say- good luck doing that, analyzing or understanding anything in the present political climate!
By definition, black swan events cannot be anticipated, or prepared for..
Yes. Good luck doing the impossible!
That is, unless you remember to include the interconnection of Church and State, a politically incorrect and taboo topic which we have been exploring on this website in recent years. A concept that actually provides the key to understanding – and to steering or taming– the seemingly out-of-control events we are witnessing today.

Surprising and Stunning Events

Events shaping this presidential election political season have certainly surprised and stunned us all from the very start.

Who expected 17 Republican candidates? Who expected Donald Trump’s candidacy? Who expected socialist Bernie’s challenge of Hillary to amount to more than a hill of beans? Who expected Trump’s phenomenal success and his following? And who expected Cruz to drop out of the race as and when he did?

Here we might add the observation that Cruz’s exit speech on May 2nd at the conclusion of the Indiana Primary sounded more like a rallying speech, and opened the possibility, at least in my mind, that the “suspension” of Cruz’s campaign was not so much the waving of a white flag as a shift to a different, clandestine game plan. There is, after all, more than one clandestine war going on behind the scenes, not controlled by and not on the radar of those of us who devote only 15 minutes every 4 years to entering a voting booth. (More on the clandestine wars later.)

Black Swan Political Theory

The collection of unexpected, unprecedented events we have witnessed in the primary season so far this year indicate an outcome that could never have previously been imagined, and is presently hard to imagine. It is a classic example of a Black Swan political event.

And not only are we witnessing a Black Swan event in this election, but we have scores of Black Swan events occurring one after another. They are stunning political professionals and pundits, and violating all laws of political probability!

What Can We Learn from Black Swan Theory Today?

So let us sit back and make some stabs at analyzing what is going on, what the future might hold, and whether we are powerless pawns in the unfolding of history, or whether we have at our disposal some secret weapons that could steer events. (Via one of my favorite topics, the Interconnection between Church and State!)

When things seem dismal and all seems lost (incidentally, this is precisely the moment in time that most of us fall to our knees in prayer), some pretty remarkable things begin to happen. We begin to include faith and God in our politics, and the Goliaths begin to fall. It’s described in the Bible (David and Goliath), and it’s happened in recent history – including the recent collapse of the Soviet Union. When people start praying and putting ethics first, that’s when we get to see the successful and productive Interconnection of Church and State.

Religion is powerful, and the Interconnection of Church and State is powerful. There is a reason why despots, and why many in our present government and culture (also despots!), try so hard to eliminate God from public life. With God included, despots have no chance, and the people win.

So Where Are We Right Now?
Trump versus Hillary?

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If you believe much of the media, it’s going to be Trump versus Hillary, isn’t it?

Not quite so simple.
It very well may be Trump versus Hillary, but there are many reasons why it might not be.

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The Secret War Most of Us Missed in 2012

In 2012, it really looked like it would be Mitt Romney versus Obama. But those who followed this closely could see there was a clandestine war for delegates going on and Mitt Romney only made it by the skin of his (very polished) teeth.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul had BOTH satisfied the conditions for entering the convention (plurality in 5 States) in 2012, and since delegates were only thought to be bound on the first vote, Ron Paul supporters were working on getting delegates to exercise their freedom of conscience. Delegates could prevent Romney’s nomination in the first vote of the Tampa 2012 Convention by abstaining, and thus they could trigger a brokered convention. This would give Ron Paul a chance to compete for the nomination, and would allow the introduction of additional candidates.

Yes, in 2012, we were headed for a brokered convention – but it turns out that Mitt Romney had had enough clandestine foresight to seed the Republican Rules Committee with delegates who were loyal to himself ahead of the convention — delegates who then changed Rule 40(b) on the eve of the Convention in such a way as to exclude Ron Paul, and to allow only Mitt Romney into the Convention. A brokered convention was avoided, and Mitt Romney got the nomination.

This time, the struggles have intensified, the media has publicized them, and more Americans know about the situation.
So make no mistake, there are plenty of clandestine battles going on, and there is no guarantee yet that it’s Trump versus Hillary.

In the event that Hillary is disqualified from the race on legal grounds, more black swans will arrive- are we to consider a socialist, possibly communist Presidential candidate in the United States? Will there be attempts to introduce Joe Biden? Someone else?

For a while it seemed like NO candidate would clear the Rule 40(b) bar that Mitt Romney changed in 2012, which now requires a candidate to clear a majority (51%) in 8 States to enter the convention – a very difficult thing to do, and something that Donald Trump was in doubt of accomplishing before Ted Cruz’s unexpected suspension of his campaign.Plans were even under way in the Republican Party to change Rule 40(b) on the eve of the Convention, so that Republicans would not have ZERO candidates meeting the requirements to enter the Convention. The proposed change would have admitted all candidates who “won” at least one delegate in the primaries (that would be about half of the original 17 candidates) to enter the convention for the first vote.

So now, with Cruz’s suspension it’s looking like Trump has cleared Rule 40(b), and the 1237 estimate, and will be the only candidate estimated to qualify for nomination.

Since the outset, 2/3 of Republicans voted for “Social Conservatives” (i.e. Judeo-Christian morality), while the more liberal Trump was only able to summon up 1/3 of the vote. Bankrupting your opposition may not be the best way to represent the will of the people!

However, Trump’s victories so far have been in the primary arena, an arena that is primarily money-driven, and not driven by the ideology of Republican voters. It is an arena which is tainted by the Democrat-driven legislation which allows non-Republicans to vote in Republican primaries in 24 States. It is NOT an arena that represents Republican voters, Republican ideology, or the Republican Platform.

It is not an accident that the Rules of the Republican Party provide delegates at the Convention a veto power over the Primaries. Delegates are active Republicans in 50 States and territories, are not from Washington, and they represent American citizens who are Republican better than the primaries now do. The delegates just may not reproduce the results of the Primaries.

Complicating the Already Complicated Mess

To make matters even less certain than usual, it has become clear this year that delegates are not bound by primary results, and can “change” their votes. They are even free to vote their conscience in the first vote of the convention, and do not have to feel “bound” by the primary/caucus results. This information has just surfaced in this primary election season. So Donald Trump is in serious danger of not getting his estimated 1237 votes in the first ballot of the convention, despite feeling that he has 1237 estimated votes based on Primary results!

In spite of Democrat and media efforts to portray this as a massive violation of democracy, it has become clear that delegates who ignore primary results would actually be restoring democracy, and would actually be protecting the right of the Republican Party to nominate it’s own conservative candidate– rather than handing that privilege to their opponent, the Democrat Party, who has surreptitiously succeeded in passing “binding” legislation in 24 States in recent decades.

These recent Democrat efforts to steer the Republican nomination have been trumped (no, not by Trump) by the Rules of the National Republican Party, a careful reading of which makes it clear that the rights of Republicans to nominate their own Republican candidate have been preserved, despite Democrat attempts to hijack their process.

Worth repeating: For the first time, delegates are highly likely to go rogue, on a massive scale. And they’re not Republican “establishment” cronies. They’re more likely very conservative patriots.

More Layers of Chaos

Needless to say, if the delegates Donald Trump thinks he has won (because of legislation in 24 States that “binds” delegate votes), if those 1237 delegates instead follow their own conscience, because they just learned that they are exempt from this legislation which was pushed through by Democrats in 24 States, more chaos will result.

The delegates might either abstain, depriving Donald Trump of 51% and forcing a second vote, in which additional candidates can be proposed, or delegates might vote for someone other than Trump (depending on who is on the ballot, which depends on what rules have been changed by Rules Committee the week before!!!).
As you can plainly see, massive numbers of Black Swans may be arriving to stun us, and there is little way of predicting which way it will go.

Particularly for us normal people who don’t have any of the pertinent clandestine details, and who are limited by the very limited and biased information offered to us by the press.

The Underground War

The players battling for control in this underground war which may or may not succeed in ousting Donald are not necessarily RINO “establishment” delegates who want Mitt Romney to be President (although there will be some of those, too).
This is a multi-faceted war with an outcome impossible to steer, except by prayer and adherence to Judeo-Christian ethical principles. (That’s the only way we can tame or steer Black Swans.)

The players will include:

Trump & his associates

Conservative Republicans who have been felt betrayed by the actions of increasingly progressive Republican leaders since the 2014 elections

RINO “establishment” members who want to maintain the status quo, even if it means handing the election to Hillary. Incidentally, Donald Tump’s lumping of all Donald opposition under a common umbrella of “establishment” is vey misleading. In actual fact, Donald is lumping two warring factions together – conservatives and RINOS – who are war with each other, and who each have very different reasons for opposing Donald Trump.

Evangelical and Catholic citizens who are fighting to maintain Judeo-Christian values (religious liberty, pro-life and traditional marriage) in the Republican Platform

Ted Cruz, who could be continuing an unpublicized yet legitimate behind the scenes effort to win delegates ideologically, as he did in Colorado and in North Dakota.

The “Never Trump” group, which may overlap with some of the other groups mentioned.

Tea Party Members who emphasize conservative economy over conservative ethical “social” values

Libertarians, who often line up with Republicans in areas where their interests overlap. This year, some are even discussing Libertarian success as a third party, feeling they have a better than usual chance because so many voters want simply “not Hillary” and “not Trump” this year.

Progressive infiltrators of the Republican Party who have been trying to steer left for quite some time.

… numerous other mechanisms that this politically naive citizen struggles to imagine

And, most important, the hearts, souls, prayers and churches of America, where good people continue to pray for a restoration of Judeo-Christian morality to American government.

Possible Outcomes

The Outcome WILL Be a Black Swan

Davids can slay Goliaths

The outcome of this Presidential election season is likely to be a Black Swan not possible to predict at this point in time. We should not place too much confidence in the outcome being Donald or Hillary.

A Good Outcome Is Quite Possible

We could, if we play our cards right (actually, if we talk to God right), end up with a restoration of Judeo-Christian values and an Abraham Lincoln or Ronald Reagan emerging as our next President. That person could even be Donald Trump, provided his “conversion” to conservatism is legit. And the conversion would have to be in all areas, particularly the ethical ones.

Violence May Be Involved

The outcome of this Presidential election season could include violence at conventions – both Republican and Democrat.
Donald Trump has forecast, even before he became the lone candidate following Ted Cruz’s withdrawal, and before Trump had the Mitt Romney-2012 rule-required majority in 8 States (which only a lone candidate could possibly acquire), Trump (very unprofessionally and very undemocratically) has forecast riots if he is not elected the Republican nominee on the first Convention vote. Is Donald Trump considering encouraging the use of Alinsky tactics, previously employed primarily by progressives?

Even conservatives, albeit far right conservatives, have now made the mistake of hinting at the use of violence. Glen Beck was just suspended from his show for comments hinting at the assassination of a President Trump in the event that he is elected and becomes dictatorial, following the Presidential present precedent.

Why All This Violence?

People most often turn to violence when they feel cornered.

The left has been fighting an uphill battle against Judeo-Christian morality and has been using violent and crooked Alinsky tactics now for years.

But that attitude is very short-sighted, and I am personally hoping that Trump’s rhetoric is theatrical, not literal.
It is hard to say whether Donald Trump is a patriot or just another bully.
Introducing bully #2 into the White House could be very dangerous, and could boomerang in our faces, as do most violations of Judeo-Christian ethics.

We really do need to figure out exactly what page Mr. Trump is on. Is he a legitimate convert to conservatism and the solution to America’s problems, is he a naive liberal who thinks he can win the Presidency by adopting a couple of conservative positions and hijacking the Republican Party, or is he actually a liberal plant, an infiltrator, who is about to blow the Republican Party apart?
This blogger truly has NO idea. (Hence the increased need for prayer and for more GOOD Black Swans.)

Violence Not Too Surprising From Alinskyite Progressives- But Will Trump Encourage Joining In?

But the possibility of violence and Alinsky tactics among Republicans is truly disturbing. So far, it’s only talk, and actual disruptions have been limited to progressive and paid “activists.”

To Win A Battle, We Must Be Prepared to Engage in It

A positive outcome of this Presidential election, with a victory for Judeo-Christian values, is still possible. But such an outcome will definitely require courageous action and fervent prayer on the part of conservatives.
The outcome will not be favorable if we do not engage in the battle and stick to our guns.
Goliath would never have been slain if David had not stepped up to the challenge.
The Soviet Union would never have collapsed if Ronald Reagan, Polish Solidarity and Pope John Paul II had run away from the problem or cowered.

We will be facing some Alinksyites and some primitive mobs.
But with God in our corner, we will not be facing them alone.

2016 – a Pivotal Election

This election represents a very major battle with the potential to reclaim the soul and the morality of America.
It may be the pivotal battle that determines whether America is Great again, or whether America falls into decline and ethical collapse. A nation that kills it’s children at the rate of 1 million per year cannot thrive- either morally, or economically.

And making America Great Again is not a reference to Trump- on whom the jury is still out.

America will not be made great solely through economic strategy.
America will be made great by returning to the Judeo-Christian values on which America was established.

Whether America returns to those founding values, and whether that return is headed by a converted St. Donald (analogy to St. Paul the Evangelist) or by a different ethical conservative leader, remains to be seen.

Christian Europe was saved from annihilation..xx
The inscription on the image of Our Lady of Good Counsel reads “Mater Bonii Consilii, Ora Pro Nobis Jesum Fillium Tuum,” or “Mother of Good Counsel, Pray for Us to Jesus your Son.”
You don’t have to be Catholic to pray the Rosary, a meditative prayer on the Life of Our Lord.
Praying the Rosary today is as pertinent and as effective as it was in 1571.

One Way to Win

One possible mechanism for a positive outcome could include delegates using their freedom to pressure Donald Trump into supporting the present Republican Platform.
Donald Trump is just beginning to back up his claim of conversion to conservatism with action- with the announcement of his Supreme Court picks.
Let’s hope he continues by supporting other important ethical issues, like pro-life, religious freedom and traditional marriage.

Can We Dispense With the Moral Issues?

Some think that we can dispense with the “social” or “moral” issues and focus on the economic.Rush Limbaugh has actually suggested that the Republican platform is optional or dispensable. This implies that the mission statement describing what the Republican Party represents and has represented for decades, and which assures voters of exactly what they are voting for, need not be followed. It’s dispensable, said Rush Limbaugh. Nobody follows the platform any more. Really? How did Mitt Romney fare in the 2012 election when he failed to follow the platform? How did that work out for Mitt and for the entire Republican Party? Has Rush Limbaugh now abandoned conservative values?

When a conservative icon like Rush Limbaugh begins to waffle on conservative principles we can be sure that events have become truly baffling. They are only baffling, however, when someone gets scared by all the black swans that have been arriving. Rush needs a reminder on the role of Black Swans in history and their steerability via some serious prayer and some serious adherence to Judeo-Christian ethical principles, no matter what!

Can’t We Just Compromise?

Some suggest that a middle of the road outcome, in which Donald Trump, with the appointment of a relatively liberal Vice President, possibly even a Democrat, would “solve” the political tug-of-war that has existed for decades now between the right and the left.

This national ideological split, characterized by tug-of-war elections which are won by the slimmest of margins, has produced almost random election outcomes in recent years.

The formation of a “hybrid” merger, a middle-of-the-road party through a mechanism involving Donald Trump could serve the purpose of eliminating the established political system and the current players who have much invested in continuation of the system. The resulting elimination of lobbyists, entrenched politicians and self-interested parties, often using political correctness to force their agendas, would be replaced by a more rational system, more accountable to the electorate.

Although this possibility is theoretically attractive and is aimed at producing policies that benefit all Americans, it does not address the resolution of some major problems, for which compromise does not seem possible.

A wagon pulled in two directions simultaneously by two different horses gets nowhere.

Where Compromise May Not Be Possible

There are many areas in which it is not possible to compromise, in which one side must win:

It is not possible to take both roads when you reach a fork.

We cannot aim for individual freedom and for governmental control of personal life and personal thought at the same time.

We cannot outlaw and allow abortion simultaneously.

We cannot both allow and forbid guns.

We cannot preserve traditional marriage and allow homosexual marriage at the same time.

We cannot respect religious freedom and require all doctors to perform abortions concurrently.

We cannot enforce immigration law and simultaneously have open borders.

We cannot build up military defense and reduce military defense at the same time.

We cannot base our Constitution and Bill of Rights on God-given rights, yet forbid the public mention of God and of religion.

We cannot have a Supreme Court which decrees national law and policy without regard to the beliefs of the American population- most of the above mentioned issues have involved decrees by Supreme Court and by Executive Action which are in disagreement with the beliefs of most Americans.

We cannot have a Democratic Republic in which elected Representatives of the people do not represent the wishes of the people and in which politically appointed Supreme Court Justices overrule the will and the religious beliefs of the people.

Choices Must and Will be Made

Choices must be made, and laws must be enforced.
This election is likely to determine whether the United States steers right or steers left.
We’ve been waffling too long and getting nowhere.
Actually, no. We have been very rapidly drifting left- not by the will of the people, but by manipulation by the Presidency and by the Supreme Court. And Congress is NOT doing their job of checking those out-of-control branches of government.

There is no way to predict or to influence the outcome of this very complex situation except through sticking to our ethics, praying, and watching the Black Swans as they arrive.

Personally, I think it’s high time somebody corrected the damage done by the Obama administration, which is ramping up affronts to morality and to religious freedom by the day.
There is a major spiritual battle going on, and we need to engage in it.

Citizens must support the most ethically conservative candidates and must vote.
Delegates must follow their consciences and make sure that the candidate elected, whether it is Donald Trump or not, sticks to the Judeo-Christian ethics outlined in the present Republican Platform.

May God Bless and Help America!

See also:

-which explains why the brokered convention has been totally misrepresented by media and by campaigns, and why the brokered convention could be the Black Swan that saves America, as it has done in the past- with the election of Abraham Lincoln and of Ronald Reagan.

-an explanation of why delegates having the power to reverse primary results may not be a ditching of democracy at all, but the reverse- a protection, or check and balance built into the system against infiltration of primaries by the opposition or by monied interests. Also why “rogue” delegates may not represent the Republican “establishment” at all, but may represent the reclaiming of the soul of the Republican Party.

Aside:Wisconsin Primary results reflect the conservative will of America, which could dominate the Presidential election if Conventions are allowed to play their intended role of checking the money-driven Primary results, in which 16 (mostly conservative) Republican candidates were out-maneuvered financially by Donald Trump, but still represent the will of two thirds of America.

-which discusses the conflict between Primaries and Convention, between State legislation and RNC Rules, and the recent legal developments that give Republican delegates complete freedom to “trump” Primary results – and why they might not be traitors, but patriots if they do so.

As the new Paul Revere exposes the truth and suggests possible remedies, we must all decide whether to heed his alarm or whether to let progressives continue their take over of the Republican Party.

BTW: Don’t blame the Republicans
later if you don’t lift a finger
to help their conservative contingent during the present battle.

Have You Lost Your Marbles, or is this the Story of the Century?

Now some will want to question the sanity of the above suggestion- that Republicans have been succumbing to grand scale election manipulation by outsiders for several decades -but give this a paragraph or two more, and see what your common sense tells you after that.

Most conservatives will willingly acknowledge that liberals have slowly and clandestinely penetrated many other crucial elements of our society, from universities, to Hollywood, to the media. Examples of clandestine infiltration of one’s enemy can be also be seen throughout history- from the Trojan Horse stories of 11th century BC to the widespread infiltration of political movements today. Reports abound of Alinsky tactics used by today’s progressives, which include detailed instructions on the infiltration of opponents with intention to disrupt, misdirect, discredit, or otherwise neutralize conservatives.

In the present political climate, with the President of the United States enforcing laws selectively, with Supreme Court Justices overriding the will of the American people on the definition of marriage and on ObamaCare, with elected Republicans abandoning conservative platform values and chumming up and selling out to the opposition, with Secretaries of State committing grossly dangerous national security email violations and a socialist candidate who is just one opponent’s FBI indictment away from becoming a major contender in the US Presidential race, is it really so unreasonable to consider whether a decades- long monumental hijacking of Republican nominations has taken place by clandestine liberals, and whether true conservatives who actually support the (still-conservative) Republican Platform are on the brink of losing the Republican Party altogether?

Are You Sold? Or At Least Curious?
Then Read On…

If you are prepared to accept the possible infiltration of the Republican Party’s nomination process by progressives in recent decades, and want to hear what our modern day Paul Revere has to say about what he has unearthed and what can be done about it, read on.

So Who Is This “Paul Revere?” and later, What is He Saying?

Who is raising the alarm on the infiltration of the Republican presidential nomination process?
Our modern “Paul Revere” is Curly Haugland, a member of the Republican “Establishment.”

“Aha!” you say- “Establishment Republican!” “One of those nefarious people trying to thwart the wishes of the American people, who are trying to sneak in Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or John Kasich into the Republican convention!”

Actually, NO.

Crucial Fact #1:

In the presently very conflicted Republican Party, there are “Establishment” members on both sides of the conflict- conservative and progressive. Do not assume that “Establishment Republicans” are all out to nominate a progressive candidate – some of them are on the opposite team.

There are two kinds of “Establishment” Republicans.Read on carefully to see how you can help the conservative ones.

Hint: You do not NOT help the conservative ones by lumping them in with the progressives and dismissing them as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity are on the verge of recommending!

Binding delegates to the results of presidential preference primaries first appeared in the Rules of the Republican Party in 1976. ….. And, 1976 was also the last time delegates have been bound by convention rules to cast their votes according to the results of binding primary elections………“Select, allocate and bind. The fraudulent addition of these three words to the Rules of the Republican Party in the 2008 Convention, as detailed in Chapter One, is the political equivalent of “spinning straw into gold”. Without the use of force to bind the votes of delegates to the results of the primary process, primaries are nearly worthless “beauty contests”.

So Curly has produced the hard evidence showing that the “binding” provision was added to the RNC Rules fraudulently, and that Republican delegates were only “bound” for one Republican convention in 1976.
All the rest has been smoke and mirrors, with progressive infiltrators of the Republican Party trying to use “binding” to obtain control over the Republican nomination process for several decades.

The Corollary

A corollary is something that follows unavoidably and logically from a given fact.
So what follows unavoidably and logically from Curly’s fact finding that Republican delegates are not bound?

What follows, is that all this talk of bound delegates, committed delegates, plurality and majority of votes, “winner take all” and most importantly, of 1237 delegates and “presumptive nominee” is just that – talk. And speculation.
If all delegates are free, it’s impossible to know whether anybody has 1237 delegates until the first vote at he Convention has been cast.

The corollary is that the Republican Party selects their nominee for President at the Convention, and not during the Primaries. The Primaries are advisory in nature, and give the Party an opportunity to see and to consider what the public thinks.
But the Primaries are not binding in any way on the Republican Party.

That Sounds Like They’re Trying to Get Rid of Trump!

The facts that Curly Haugland has found are just historical facts and rules.
Those facts may be used by many people for many purposes.
Curly Haugland started his search for facts way before Donald Trump was ever thought to be a serious candidate.
Curly Haugland was actually searching for information on following one’s own conservative conscience when your party is besieged by progressives.

These Facts Might Make it Possible for Conservatives to Take Back the Republican Party with an “Outsider” like Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina.

These new findings, that State delegates still have the rights that our American system first gave them, the same rights that Senators and Representatives and General Election Electors have, the rights that counterbalance the primaries (which are often very skewed by voter fraud and by deep pocketed donors)- Curly’s finding that delegates are permitted to use their common sense and conscience to ensure that candidates are faithful to the Republican Party Platform, are very exciting.

These findings open new doors for nominating very conservative candidates — candidates like the 65% conservative Republican candidates who first ran with Donald Trump, and who were eliminated by the primary money game, while 65% of American voters were still backing them. The conservative voters of America should not be punished for the fact that so many conservative candidates came forward.

In fact, Curly, as a member of the Rules committee, will be proposing a Rule change to return more power to the Convention, where the delegates from 50 States and the territories represent the wishes of the States (as opposed to the Primaries, which often reflect the depth of the pockets of candidates).
Curly is proposing the reversal of the Mitt Romney Rule change of 2012, which allowed liberal Mitt Romney to kick conservative Ron Paul out of the Convention before it even started. Curly’s new proposed rule allows any candidate who won any delegates in the State primaries to enter the Convention, so candidates with shallow pockets and no wealthy donors (like Ben Carson) are not punished at the outset.

God Bless Donald Trump’s Heroic Heart, He May Still Win- But Even The Donald has to Follow the Age-Old Rules

It is still premature to nominate Donald Trump, until it can be demonstrated at the Convention that he has won 51% of the Republican vote.

The entire history of the United States, starting with Federal elections and continuing with political party rules, is based on arriving at a candidate who has 51% of the people behind him or her.
This design is crafted very purposefully and carefully, to ensure that candidates are not punished when many people run, and to ensure that our nation is not governed by someone whom 65% of the nation does not want.

When there is a legitimate 51% backing of one candidate in the nation, that candidate is nominated.
But this year, with 17 candidates, the conservative vote was split between as many as 16 candidates. Just because Donald Trump got one third of the nation behind him does not mean that the conservative voters whose candidates dropped out will back Donald Trump.

Donald Trump, no matter how loud he sells his case, must follow the rules.

And those rules have always been that if a person does not get 51% of the vote, or 1237 delegates, that person has to run off at the convention against other candidates, to give the people a final say.
And now we find out that the 1237 cannot be counted before the first ballot at the Convention.
This may not even be an issue, unless Donald Trump actually gets 1237 votes– but even then, who gets to estimate the number of delegates?

Aren’t the RINOS going to Take Advantage of the Brokered Convention?

Yes, there will be some RINO progressive “establishment” types who may try to use these findings to their advantage, to re-introduce people like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney or even Paul Ryan at a brokered convention.

But there will also be CONSERVATIVE “establishment” types like Curly, people who were elected and sent by their States, people who represent voters, not the Washington Republican elites, conservatives who are just as determined to reclaim the Republican Party and to stick to it’s still-conservative platform.

The Battle MUST Be Fought

This battle between the progressive and conservative Republicans MUST be fought out at the Convention, and it is wrong for Donald Trump, and the media, including Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, to declare that Donald Trump represents the will of the people when he does not have a majority, and thus to hand control of the Republican Party over prematurely to someone like Donald who is only partially conservative and who may not support the “social” conservative aspects of the Republican Party Platform, which represent the Judeo-Christian values that most of us Americans professes to hold.

Isn’t Curly Cheating Donald Trump of a Legitimate Win?

No, Curly is not cheating Donald Trump of anything.

Neither Donald Trump, nor some voters, nor Rush Limbaugh, nor Sean Hannity, seem to realize that there is a big difference between a plurality and a majority, that Donald does not have the majority, he just has the plurality, and that there are whole fields of mathematics and political science which calculate the fairest way to run off competing candidates in an election. Those principles have been incorporated into our General Election Rules, into the RNC Rules, and into Roberts Rules of Order which governs the RNC. We need to continue following those rules in 2016.

Shame on Some

One alarming aspect of the 2016 Election is that some very big players have not only failed to do their homework and to understand the rules of the game, but they have also recently started discussing “riots” and “violence” if the 35% of Americans who support Donald Trump do not instantly get their way.

Donald Trump, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity have referred to the “riots” that they claim will result if Donald Trump does not get the Republican nomination. Suggestion of riots by such nationally known figures are tantamount to inciting of riots, and shame on Donald, shame on Rush, and shame on Sean for abusing their status and talking this way.

Those of us who are fair-minded may be happy to vote for a President Trump in November, but we don’t like to see our conservative colleagues using the left’s Alinsky scare tactics, nor do we want to be deprived of the chance that a brokered convention could very legitimately produce a staunch conservative President like the ones produced by two other brokered conventions – Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan.

Aren’t Republicans Trying to Thwart the Will of the People?
Some May Be, But Some are Trying to Win Back the Conservative Platform

These developments do not mean that the Republican Party is thwarting the will of the people.

In fact, they would be out of business pretty quickly if they tried to thwart the will of the people, as evidenced by the disillusionment of the electorate with the nomination of Mitt Romney in 2012.

Yes, there is a civil war going on in the Republican Party between conservatives and progressive infiltrators, but progressives have won only a few battles, and many conservatives are not giving up the fight.

So why should we give up the battle before it has even started?

Watching Reince Priebus sweating out a stuttered answer about Curly’s claims on Sean Hannity yesterday is all we need to know, to gauge our chances of success in reclaiming conservatism through a brokered convention.
Don’t let the fear-mongers push us into premature nominations!

It’s Over, with an Ugly Power Grab

A power grab swept under the rug by the RNC, by FOX, by Rush Limbaugh…

Unable to win by the rules, the RNC estblishment bulldozed a last-minute rule switch at the Convention yesterday:

Ron Paul had accumulated petitions from enough states (6) to be nominated legitimately, which might also have opened the convention to candidates other than just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. According to RNC rules, Ron Paul would have to be listed as a candidate, and a brokered convention, as previously described in Presumtive Nominee, would have followed.The RNC establishment, wanting only Mitt Romney and wishing to avoid the brokered convention, drafted a new set of rules which would require petitions from 8 states to nominate a candidate, instead of the previously required 5. This attempt at alteration of the rules after the fact to eliminate an undesired candidate after he has already satisfied the rules of qualification was underhanded, to say the least. But then it got even more ugly.
When it came to the actual vote on the rule change, John Boehner railroaded the vote through dishonestly, announcing that in the opinion of the chair (his opinion) the “ayes have it,” when in fact the sound track of the above video will show clearly that the “ayes” did NOT have it, and Boehner was subsequently booed for the bad call.

What Happened Here?

The Republican Party “establishment” has for decades been drifting towards liberalism through compromise with Democrats. They have not had much objection from conservative voters, who in prosperous times had less objection to expanding government and expanding spending.

The Republican “establishment,” the “old boys,” don’t want to change. Either they think that they know better than the grass roots “regular guy” (you and me, the voter), or they want to protect their privileged positions and benefits. There could even be a chance that the powerful liberal-social-engineering-spenders like Soros, Turner or Gates, might be a bit smarter than we give them credit for. They might have been covering their bets in both parties all along. There may be some puppets in the Republican Party who take orders from elsewhere. Democrats have just used fake “Republicans” in their campaign ads, who’s to say they don’t run fake “Republicans” for office?

So There’s a War Going on Within the Republican Party

So there’s a war going on, and the above video illustrates it.
That was the “floor fight” predicted yesterday.
Boehner’s dishonest handling of the vote on the rule change in the above video, as well as Fox’s Ben Swann’s questions Romney’s truthfulness and tactics, show that the liberal, “establishment” half of Republicans are using some pretty dirty tricks.
They are not the only ones not playing it fair. They now seem to have some of the conservative media in their pockets. FOX News, and even Rush Limbaugh, have stayed away from this story. They are almost a guilty as the liberal media has been, in failure to report important stories and placating those who are powerful.

We’ve Lost this Battle

It’s pretty clear that we’ve lost this battle of the nomination.

John Boehner falling off pedestal

The fat lady sings “Yes, it’s over.” The nomination has finally (however undemocratically and dishonestly) been made.
Some of our heroes have fallen; particularly John Boehner.
When the pride of our conservative leaders becomes so inflated that they forget for whom they work, and they try to defy the wishes of their electorate, they become very much like Obama.

The War is Not Over.

“Establishment” Republicans are the product of the prosperous and liberal past, and are gradually being replaced with new more principled conservatives.
Paul Ryan is an example of that shift. So are some of the Governors who spoke at the Convention last night.
Tough new leaders who are willing to implement tough new reforms. Scott Walker got a standing ovation last night.
America’s growing grass-roots conservatism will eventually displace the old Republican “establishment” and the required changes will be made. The angry people in the video above are not going home defeated.

The Next Battle

The next battle will be defined in three stages:

First, Obama needs to be defeated. We will campaign for, and elect, Mitt Romney (gulp!).
His imperfections are not (yet) as large as Obama’s.

Then, America’s new grass roots conservatives will have to work hard to hold Mitt Romney to his promises, to keep Mitt accountable to the American people, for whom he works.

Finally, the next Republican Convention will require some rule changes if we don’t want to drift into conservative totalitarian rule in place of Obama’s liberal totalitarian rule.

So Where is God?

I would have preferred a cleaner and fairer fight at the RNC yesterday, with a better outcome. I wish we had an (undivided) Republican establishment which respects and enforces it’s own rules, and I wish we could have had a brokered convention to choose the next Reagan or Lincoln for America. But God’s wisdom, His choices and His intervention are not for us to fathom. We keep faith in God and watch further developments.

We work to defeat the Abortion President, Obama.
A nation which kills it’s own children cannot prosper.
Neither morally, nor economically.

I love how the left and this president talks about inclusion as they advocate the discarding and destruction of over 1 million children every year. Some inclusion. We stand for the truth. We stand for life. We stand for love, and we will win. – Rick Santorum

Last Minute RNC Rule Change: No More Democracy; Party Bosses Rule

Apparently, Mitt Romney was sufficiently worried about the security of his status as Presumptive Nominee, that he managed to get the RNC Rules changed at the last minute, to eliminate democratic input from grass roots voters, and allow party bosses to determine who gets the nomination.

Transcript of Monday, August 27, 2012 Reality Check:

To say that the Republican convention is a mess would be a huge understatement.
The entire state of Maine was stripped of their credentials because they were going to vote for Congessman Ron Paul and not Governor Mitt Romney.

As a result, Maine’s Governor, Paul LePage, is boycotting the RNC.

Saturday Ben Swann interviewed Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
He asked how the Governor could support the RNC stripping these Maine delegates of their credentials. He asked it even though we were told the campaign did not want to talk about delegates:

Ben Swann: Yesterday (Friday) the RNC chose to remove the entire Maine delegation from being able to be seated as a part of that. Do you believe that is the right step for the RNC to have taken considering the fact that these people were elected, they were Republicans who were elected by Republicans to go and represent the State of Maine?

Romney: You know, I haven’t seen the inner politics of what’s gone on and I’m not going to comment on the RNC’s decision. I really haven’t looked at this.

Ben Swann (on Reality Check): Really? So Governor Romney claims he wasn’t aware of his own campaign having an entire state of delegates stripped of their credentials? Hard to believe, when it was his campaign that led the challenge of these delegates.
But then again, Governor Romney also claims to not have realized that his chief legal counsel just pushed through what many top GOP leaders are calling the biggest GOP power grab in the party’s history.
So here’s what happened. Conservatives and even some moderates are accusing the Romney chief attorney Ben Ginsberg of pushing through a rules change for delegate selection that would give Mitt Romney enormous power over the primary process, should he win the White House and seek reelection in 2016.
According to the Washington Times, Ginsberg persuaded the RNC Rules Committee members to let Mr. Romney, if he becomes President, decide which delegates will be seated at the 2016 GOP presidential nominating convention. It also calls for letting future presidential hopefuls decide who gets to take the delegate slots that they win in each state. Tea Party supporter and the founder of FreedomWorks Dick Armey came out strongly against this RNC rule saying this:

The process has always been bottom-up, but Romney officials have rewritten the rules so that the nominee can stifle any dissent on the platform committee and even unseat delegates. Make no mistake, this will weaken the process by which Republicans choose their candidate for president and push the grassroots out of the party process.

So when Romney told me (Ben Swan) on Saturday that he isn’t worried about the delegates, he apparently meant it.

Romney: I’m sure the convention will work just fine. We’ll have a lot of delegates there, we’re gonna get the nomination, I’m not worried about that.

Ben Swann- So, what you need to know is that there is a saying in Maine:
“As Maine goes, so goes the rest of the nation.”
And that’s why this delegate battle with Maine is really so important. Let me break this down like this: in Maine, Republican delegates were elected by Republicans. The RNC didn’t like who they were going to vote for, even though under State rules, they had every right. So the RNC said, “We’re going to replace those delegates with ones who will vote the way we want.” Under this new rule change, in 2016, the same thing that happened this year in Maine will happen to every State in the country.
One campaign will have veto power over every single delegate. Which means party bosses run everything, and those at the grass roots level are cut off.
And that is Reality Check

Bosses win, voters lose.
This is why some of us don’t belong to political parties.

May God help us, and may we pray harder than ever before.

Update, Tuesday, August 28, 2:30 PM:

Wow, thank God (literally) we’ve been praying!
I was just at Adoration ( what’s that? – the subject of a future post), and I listed the Convention and the general election on the list of prayer intentions. I am sure I am just a tiny drop in the hurricane of prayers that are being launched at heaven today; for the Convention, and for the people in the way of the hurricane.
Apparently, the rules proposed by the RNC committee Friday (mentioned in the article above) must be approved at the Convention, and today at the Convention numerous delegates are opposing the new rules, and calling them for what they are: a movement to shut out grass roots (that’s us, the average guy). The rules committee is in session as we speak (2 PM Eastern time), and if the “establishment” or bosses, or Romney Team, or whatever you want to call them don’t give in, many delegates, not just Ron Paul delegates, but many, many others as well, are promising a floor fight.
It’s not easy to take freedom away from Americans.
People shouldn’t try.

Republican Convention: a Powder Keg

Several recent developments are dovetailing in such a way as to ensure that the Republican Convention, Aug 27-30, will be a potential powder-keg, and at very least, a memorable event.

The Republican Insurrection

The conflict between conservatives and moderate Repbulican “establishment” has been described in Presumptive Nominee. Now, the Republican “establsihment,” together with Romney, is using every dirty trick in the book, including changing RNC Convention rules, four days before the convention, to eliminate the threat of a brokered convention to which Ron Paul holds the key:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQvszfnOSY8&feature=player_embedded

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Hurricane Poised to strike the Convention

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Just days before the Republican National Convention, a developing tropical storm and potential hurricane Isaac threatens to hammer the convention.

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The Left is Planning Disruption

The ACLU, headed by Soros, has launched a legal campaign to suppress the police’s ability to keep order during anti-RNC protests in Tampa.

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The Obama Administration is Gearing Up for Military Intervention

Biden Has Cancelled Plans to be in Tampa Competing with the RNC Convention

Vice President Biden

Vice President’s Biden’s announcement today to cancel his plans to be in Tampa indicate that something is brewing that Biden does not want to be in the middle of. Biden claims that it’s the hurricane, and he does nto want to overtax emergency resources with his presence, but the left’s legal plans to suppress police powers makes this claim suspect.

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How Do You Think These Elements Will Stack Up to Affect the RNC Convention This Week?

Four Years Ago: Hillary, Like Romney, Was the Presumed Candidate

or

Where is This Election Headed?

Hillary for President

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April 22, 2008:

In April of 2008, Hillary and Barak were neck-in-neck. Hillary won the Pennsylvania Primary. Then the Clinton campaign raised another $10 million.
Hillary and Barak continued to battle it out, about 1 percentage point apart, as they had been throughout the primary campaign. Hillary had been the presumed nominee for quite some time before the primary, and many believed that she could not lose.

TIME magazine

Obama was giving her a run for her money and edging her out, but only by about 1%, and neither Hillary nor supporters were ready to concede. The race was close. Estimated Delegate Score Card over time can be found here.
The media was not talking about the primary “dragging out,” or about any need to “coalesce behind one candidate” yet.

The battle continued until Obama had enough delegates to win the primary, and he only won by a very slim margin. Hillary only conceded on June 7, 2008, 4 days after Barak secured enough delegates to claim the nomination on June 3, 2008.

Who is Leading the Republican Primary Race Today?

Short Answer: Depends on who’s counting and depends on how you classify the votes.

Who’s Counting?
If the mainstream media and the Republican establishment are counting (Romney supporters), Romney is the leading candidate. If Conservatives,Tea Party, and evangelicals are counting, the race is way too young to call. 50-60% of the delegates have not yet been assigned, and anything could happen. It’s much too early to tell.

How Do You Classify the Votes?
If all four candidates attract a random segment of the American vote, and Santorum’s recent bowing out spreads the votes evenly among all candidates, then Romney is winning.
But if Conservatives are wedded to voting for conservatives like Santorum/Gingrich/Paul, and moderates are voting for Romney, then the exit of one conservative candidate will swing all the conservative votes to the next conservative candidate, and not to Romney. That is certainly the case with my vote: in the first place, my vote goes to Santorum. Failing that, to Gingrich. Failing that to Paul. Finally, failing that, to Romney. By this argument (see chart below), Romney has only 23-25% of the vote so far, and the Conservatives have 16-26% of the vote. Again, way too early to call. Conservatives and Romney neck-in-neck, and we have not even heard from 49-61% of America yet!

Uncertainty in the Delegate Counts

The Media has been very quick to assign delegates which are in any way uncertain, uncommitted or disputed, to Romney. Why? That will be discussed later below. Those mainstream media counts can be found at Wikipedia.
Conservative counts, on the other hand are made by more stringent criteria. The Santorum campaign count, for example, shows remarkably different numbers.

The bottom line is, however, that with 49 to 61% of the delegates still unassigned, and with conservative states like Texas (155 delegates available with winner-takes-all) still in the offing, the race if far from over, unless the media (and the Republican establishment) manages to convince everyone that the race is over before it really is.

Here is the range of numbers claimed by various sources, depending on your source of delegate counts and assignment of contested delegates:

Candidate

Number of delegates

Percentage of Total (2286) Delegates

Romney

536-571

23-25%

Santorum

202-342

9-15%

Gingrich

132-158

6-7%

Paul

26-91

1-4%

Conservative Total

360-591

16-26%

Delegates still unassigned

1124-1390

49-61%

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Bottom Line Today:

Conservatives could be leading Romney by a much larger margin than Barak had on Hillary in 2008.

Lessons for us from 2008’s Democrat Primary

Why are some conservatives giving up?
Do they believe the media already?
Do they want to let the Republican establishment to steer the nomination, instead of the voters steering it?
It’s still early, and the race is far from over.
It’s not over until the fat lady sings (me). 🙂

Stay in there, Rick/Newt/Ron!

A conservative coalition (if you go by Rick Santorum’s numbers) is leading with a slight edge against Romney so far, just as Barak was leading against Hillary in April 2008.
If you guys stay in there, you can prevent Romney from getting the 1144 delegates he needs for the nomination. BTW, Rick’s suspended campaign could also be un-suspended at a later date.

Then, when nobody has the required 1144 delegates, the process starts again at the brokered convention. As the candidates with least delegates are eliminated, it will boil down to one conservative against Romney, and that conservative will have a great chance of defeating Romney. America is ready for a real change.

The delegate counts so far tell us that Americans are definitely waffling on Romney; they prefer a true conservative. Tea Party candidates, evangelicals, and many other conservatives are nervous about Romney’s liberal past and the reliability of his new found conservative “conversion.”
We’ve just had a taste of somebody who promises one thing but delivers quite another- Obama.
Not to say that Romney’s recent commitments to conservatism are not appreciated or are not genuine.
We’re just a bit nervous about how reliable Romney’s recent “conversion” to conservatism is, given his past.

Time to Put America Ahead of Personal Success

Rick/Newt/Ron should team up to stay in the race for the sole purpose of preventing Romney from acquiring the 1144 delegates he needs for nomination. In 1920, there was a brokered convention where the previous underdog candidate eventually won. There would still be hope of putting a true conservative in the White House. Even if a particular candidate is not that person, they will have contributed to the restoration of our great nation by contributing to the election of another conservative.

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What Have You Got Against Mitt Romney?

Well, up front let us say that if Mitt Romney is nominated, we should all back him, campaign for him, and elect him as President of the United States.
Why? Because he has stated that he will oppose federal funding of abortion, that he will repeal ObamaCare, and that he will promote fiscal responsibility and limited government. As opposed to Obama, who has stated (and done) the complete opposite.

But given Mitt Ronmey’s past positions, I’m just a bit nervous about how reliable Romney’s recent “conversion” to conservatism is. In my mind, the Presidency should be given to someone we are very sure of. More discussion of Romney at Committment to Truth; Romney vs Santorum.

Why mention “social issues” before “economic issues?”

“Social issues” (morality) come before economic issues because common sense and wisdom tell us what God already knows: that social issues drive the economics of a nation, and are the springboard from which a stable economy develops. If you kill all your future citizens, your economy will not prosper. If you overspend on an inefficient blundering health care system which provides free abortion, contraception and sterilization, your economy will take a blow. If you deny citizens freedom of conscience, sweeping Catholic hospital closings may result. “Social issues” are the first domino with the power to take the entire economy down.

Judeo-Christian morality, on which conservatism and the Constitution of the United States are based, is a success manual given to us by a loving God, which provides the wisdom needed to avoid pitfalls both personal and national.

Why Would the Media or the Republican Establishment Want to Steer Us Towards Romney?

It’s pretty clear that Romney is much less conservative than the other Republican options. He has supported abortion in the past, as well as supported socialized medicine, which became a template for ObamaCare. Of course, the liberal media, as well as the liberal billionaires who fund the liberal media, would prefer Romney to the more conservative candidates, just in case Obama loses. Hard to imagine that billionaires like George Soros, who make a hobby of attempting to steer global values with their accumulated billions, would not at least cover their bets partially in both parties, Democrat and Republican.

As for the Republican establishment, there are some who are comfortably entrenched in the less-than-perfect Republican establishment and who fear the effect that too much change and too many cuts may have on their comfort. There are also those who fail to realize that the dynamics have changed in this election, that so many people are so much more committed and involved in this election. That a giant has awoken. They fear that they will lose voters in the middle if they offer a strong and principled candidate who has demonstrated a reliable track record of conservatism.

Where are We Headed?

Time, and American voters, particularly today in the pirmaries, will determine where we are headed.
It is my hope that we still have a chance to elect a conservative to defeat Obama at the end of the day.
If not, my efforts will shift to praying for Romney’s strength and his commitment to the Judeo-Christian values on which this nation was founded. Romney has not been vetted or even questioned on his support of Judeo-Christian values. See Committment to Truth; Romney vs Santorum .

If voters have already jumped on board with Mitt Romney tonight, it will be a (premature) victory for the media and for the Republican establishment. It will be a sad moment for those true conservatives who had hoped to return to the important “social issues” which determine the success of everything else.

May God bless and guide America!
May God bless and guide the Republican Primary winner!

about Syte

Syte Reitz grew up in Queens, New York, in a family of Lithuanian immigrants who fled Nazi and Soviet domination during World War II. Her education includes a Ph.D. in Biochemistry, and post-doctoral work at Princeton University. Syte left her job as an Assistant Professor at Oakland University, Michigan, to devote herself to raising her children, and ultimately homeschooled them through the end of high school. She is a member of Madison's Cathedral Parish.