Michael Ejekam

With a heat wave pushing the heat index well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) through much of the U.S., most of us are happy to stay indoors and crank the air conditioning. And if you think its hot here, try 124F in India. Globally, 2016 is poised to be another record-breaking year for average temperatures. This means more air conditioning. Much more.

In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), Paul Gertler and I examine the enormous global potential for air conditioning. As incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, people are buying air conditioners at alarming rates. In China, for example, sales of air conditioners have nearly doubled over the last five years. Each year now more than 60 million air conditioners are sold in China, more than eight times as many as are sold annually in the United States.

A heat dome arrives in the U.S.NOAA Forecast Daily Maximum Heat Index

This is mostly great news. People are getting richer, and air conditioning brings great relief on hot and humid days. However, air conditioning also uses vast amounts of electricity. A typical room air conditioner, for example, uses 10-20 times as much electricity as a ceiling fan.

Meeting this increased demand for electricity will require billions of dollars of infrastructure investments and result in billions of tons of increased carbon dioxide emissions. A new study by Lawrence Berkeley Lab also points out that more ACs means more refrigerants that are potent greenhouse gases.

Evidence from Mexico

To get an idea of the global impact of higher air conditioner use, we looked at Mexico, a country with highly varied climate ranging from hot and humid tropical to arid deserts to high-altitude plateaus. Average year-round temperatures range from the high 50s Fahrenheit in the high-altitude plateaus to low 80s in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Graphic shows the range of average temperatures in Fahrenheit in different parts of Mexico.Davis and Gertler, PNAS, 2015. Copyright 2015 National Academy of Sciences, USA.

Patterns of air conditioning vary widely across Mexico. There is little air conditioning in cool areas of the country; even at high-income levels, penetration never exceeds 10 percent. In hot areas, however, the pattern is very different. Penetration begins low but then increases steadily with income to reach near 80 percent.

As Mexicans grow richer, many more will buy air conditioners. And as average temperatures increase, the reach of air conditioning will be extended, even to the relatively cool areas where saturation is currently low. Our model predicts that near 100 percent of households will have air conditioning in all the warm areas within just a few decades.

Global air conditioning potential

We expect this pattern to hold not only in Mexico but around the world. When you look around, there are a lot of hot places where people are getting richer. In our study, we ranked countries in terms of air conditioning potential. We defined potential as the product of population and cooling degree days (CDDs), a unit used to determine the demand for energy to cool buildings.

Number one on the list is India. India is massive, with four times the population of the United States. It is also extremely hot. Annual CDDs are 3,120, compared to only 882 in the United States. That is, Indias total air conditioning potential is more than 12 times that of the United States.

Mexico ranks #12 but has fewer than half the CDDs experienced by India, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. These countries currently have lower GDP per capita, but our research predicts rapid air conditioning adoption in these countries over the next couple of decades.

Carbon cliff?

What does all this mean for carbon dioxide emissions? It depends on the pace of technological change, both for cooling equipment and for electricity generation.

Todays air conditioners use only about half as much electricity now as in 1990, and continued advances in energy efficiency could reduce the energy consumption impacts substantially. Likewise, continued development of solar, wind and other low-carbon sources of electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions.

As an economist, my view is that the best way to get there is a carbon tax. Higher-priced electricity would slow the adoption and use of air conditioning, while spurring innovation in energy efficiency. A carbon tax would also give a boost to renewable generating technologies, increasing their deployment. Low- and middle-income countries are anticipating large increases in energy demand over the next several decades, and carbon legislation along the lines of carbon tax is the most efficient approach to meeting that demand with low-carbon technologies.

Pricing carbon would also lead to broader behavioral changes. Our homes and businesses tend to be very energy-intensive. In part, this reflects the fact that carbon emissions are free. Energy would be more expensive with a price on carbon, so more attention would go to building design. Natural shade, orientation, building materials, insulation and other considerations can have a big impact on energy consumption. We need efficient markets if we are going to stay cool without heating up the planet.

Colerne Airfield, Chippenham, Wiltshire, a former World War Two airfield

Azimghur Barracks, Chippenham, Wiltshire

Prince William of Gloucester Barracks, Grantham, Lincolnshire

Old Dalby, Melton Mowbray, Leicestershire

Venning Barracks, Telford

Parsons Barracks, Donnington

Southwick Park, Fareham, Hampshire

Royal Marines Stonehouse, Plymouth

The MoD said the land at Venning and Parsons Barracks are the only sites that will not have housing built on them, as they will be used for commercial development at the request of Telford and Wrekin Council.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said: “We are getting rid of land that we don’t need to build homes that we do, generating hundreds of millions of pounds in the process.

“Our commitment to protect and increase the budget for our armed forces means that every penny of that will be reinvested into defence, helping to keep Britain safe.”

But shadow defence secretary Clive Lewis said: “Affordable housing is desperately needed across the UK, particularly by service families, who have seen the cost of their housing go up as conditions get worse.

“So it’s disappointing that the MoD has failed to say how many of these potential new homes will be affordable, or how many could be set aside for service personnel.

“In fact, they cannot even reassure us that these sites will be used to build new homes at all,” he said.

“What we’re looking at is the double impact of 18,000 MoD staff losing their jobs and public land potentially being sold on the cheap for developers to profit from,” a Public and Commercial Services union spokesman said.

“The government must learn from the mistakes of the past and ensure any land sold not only realises its full value, but that house-builders are forced to ensure enough affordable homes are provided.”

In a written statement, Mr Lancaster said consultations will take place over the coming weeks with “stakeholders” including trade unions, to determine the future of each site and their occupants.

“The release of land by the MoD has the potential to provide land for new homes and we will continue to engage with impacted local authorities to determine how the department’s assessment of housing unit allocation against each site may be considered as part of the authority’s Local Plan,” he said.

“I acknowledge that these moves will have an impact upon civilian and military staff; the department is making arrangements to provide for units and functions based at sites which will not have a future defence requirement.”

An MoD spokeswoman said it was too early to confirm how exactly it would affect staff at the sites, but she said “the majority” will be provided for and moved to accommodation elsewhere, for example.

Mr Lancaster said the sales would contribute 225m towards the MoD’s 1bn target for land release sales, as set out in its spending review last year.

The release of the sites contributes to the government commitment to provide land for 160,000 homes by 2020, he said.

The 2015 Conservative manifesto pledged that 200,000 quality Starter Homes would be built over the course of the Parliament, reserved for first-time buyers under 40 and sold at 20 % below the market price.

According to real-estate website StreetEasy, 12 of the condos in Manhattan currently listed at over $20 million have had their prices cut by 5 percent or more in recent months, while only 2 of them have seen any increase in their listing price. Among the cuts is a condo at 1 Central Park South. It’s been on the market for more than 250 days, and is now on sale at $45.5 million, $6.45 million less than its price a few weeks ago.

That’s just one of the indications that the market may be slowing down. Here are some others:

Turning one apartment into two

One developer recent chopped a $45 million listing at 10 Sullivan into 2 separate apartments. The 8,400 square feet property is now split into a 3,000 square foot listing for $11 million, and a 5,400 square foot listing at $29.5 million.

Waiting it out

Some sellers are acting cautious amid a perceived glut in supply. One developer had all the approvals he needed to start listing luxury units at 111 W. 57th St., but he has decided to hold off, saying “if you have a market where you think marketing would be ineffective for now, why would you launch and spend the money?”

Giving up

Some are choosing to abandon plans for new real-estate projects all together. Earlier this year, developers who had planned to convert Manhattans Sony Building into ultra-luxury condominiums agreed to sell the tower for more than $1.4 billion instead of developing the flats themselves.

Loans are getting harder to find

Building luxury condos takes some financing, and that market is drying up a little. In May, New York luxury-condo builder Extell Development Co. said construction financing for One Manhattan Square was taking longer than expected.

Land sitting idle

There are signs that the land used to build luxury condos may be seeing less interest at the high prices sellers are asking. Brokerage Ariel Property Advisors said that a mere 48 land deals were completed in the first half of 2016, compared with 79 in the year-earlier period.

Dwindling stock performance

Jitters are showing up in the stock market as well. Shares have been declining in both Toll Brothers Inc., the biggest U.S. luxury-home builder, and Equity Residential, the largest publicly traded U.S. multi-family owner.

Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited, has announced the appointment of Elkin Pianim as a Director of the firm while Michael Chu’di Ejekam has been named a Director for its broker-dealer subsidiary, Afrinvest Securities Limited (ASL).

A Ghanaian national, Pianim’s appointment, the firm stated, further reflects the pan-African outlook of Afrinvest, which also has Ms. Fatumata Soukouna, a Liberian national on the board of ASL and Dr. Fidelis Nde-Che, a Cameroonian, as Chairman of its Board of Directors.

Pianim has over 25 years experience in the financial services sector, and has worked on several landmark projects across the United States, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe and Ghana. He is currently Founder and Partner at Serengeti Capital Partners Limited – an Accra-Headquartered financial services group engaged in consultancy and asset management – and his areas of expertise include consumer goods, natural resources, media and technology.

Also, Ejekam, has a proven track record of full cycle retail investment and development including site origination, equity investment, planning approvals, development management, tenant leasing, asset management and exit of the largest retail malls in Nigeria, Ghana, and the broader West African market.

As Director of Real Estate for West Africa at Actis – a $7.5bn private equity firm, which is the most active retail developer in Sub Saharan Africa – Ejekam originated over $700m in retail projects. These include the $130m Jabi Lake Mall Abuja project; $100m Ikeja City Mall Lagos project; Heritage Place, Nigeria’s first green certified commercial building; and the Accra Mall.

Ejekam also has significant experience in international real estate with a United States private real estate investment and development firm with interests in $2bn of real estate assets. He was previously a Wall Street Investment Banker at Merrill lynch in New York, and participated in $3bn of acquisition, LBO financings, IPO and leverage loans. See original posting here.

Michael Chu’di Ejekam is known for his work in the retail development sector throughout all of Africa. He has had a hand in numerous projects, often with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa and his motherland of Nigeria. AT Kearney recently published its African Retail Development Index and rated countries based on various aspects, such as market attractiveness, country risk, market saturation, and time pressure, to determine which ones were the most desirable for retail development. Which ones came out on top? You’ll find the answers below, in this Michael Chu’di Ejekam blog.

1. Gabon

The prior report listed Gabon as number five, but the recent increase in growth helped it earn the top spot this time around. According to the report, Gabon has the most stable middle-class, and one of the highest per-capita income levels of any Sub-Saharan nation, which sits at around $21,000. Moreover, newcomers to the market don’t face serious struggles due to heavy competition because it’s just now beginning to blossom.

2. Botswana

For similar reasons, Botswana climbed from number eight to number two on the list this year. The country has a very diverse economy, drawing revenue from mining, agriculture, and tourism. It’s a natural place for retailers to head to, and many of the big players in retail have become well-established already. Choppies, for example, has more than 70 locations there. This makes it more difficult for a newcomer to get established, though companies with a unique proposition or product still do well and the market continues to grow.

3. Angola

GDP growth makes Angola a very attractive place to do business. In these terms, it’s one of the fastest growing areas, with a 7% annual increase. However, it is still small (approximately 1/8 the size of Nigeria) and the middle-class population is nearly non-existent. Businesses that do well in Angola recognize this, and tend to cater to only the affluent Angolans or the very budget-conscious consumers.

4. Nigeria

Despite economic struggles, Nigeria remains a powerhouse for retail development. The population is massive, plus the middle-class is large and growing. Many citizens still favor local shops and small outlets, but the increase in urbanization is changing this as well. Numerous malls have been constructed and big companies like Shoprite have put down roots. Companies that do very well right now are catering to the loyalty of Nigerians, and are using locally-sourced goods whenever possible.

These four countries beat out all others, including South Africa, in terms of desirability for retail development. As time passes, we’re sure to see great things emerge from these markets, and positive results from those who enter them with a sound business plan.

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Three Tips to Make Your Nigerian Retail Venture a Win

Michael Chudi Ejekam has experience choosing the best retail ventures throughout Africa and America. His experiences have served him, the companies he has represented, and individual investors well. This has also helped Michael Chudi Ejekam become known as a thought leader in the Nigerian retail revolution, but some of the expertise comes from watching what’s happening in other parts of the world, and knowing which business strategies help businesses succeed in unique economic environments. The retail industry in Nigeria is still strong and a good opportunity for entrepreneurs, but it’s important to include the following three things into your business plan as you start your retail company.

1. Be Prepared to Stay

“Make very sure Africa is where you want to be,” advises Christo Wiese, Chairman of Shoprite Holdings. He’s South Africa’s richest man, and weathering the conditions is easier for him, but he makes a fine point. All too often, new businesses are not prepared to accept losses with their gains. There will be times when business is slow, and smart entrepreneurs allow for this in their long-term strategies. When they come unprepared to stay, they exit the market quickly.

2. Take Advantage of Ecommerce Opportunities

The people of Nigeria love online shopping, more so than the people of other nations. Only 60% of Kenyans use the internet for shopping, and in South Africa, the number climbs to 70%, but here in Nigeria, a massive 90% of the population shops online. Throughout the world, we are seeing a unique mixture, where businesses are providing a seamless experience from online stores to their physical locations. Managing Director at Netplusdotcom, Wole Faroun, says that the key is in incorporating point of sales (POS) systems and using them. Consumers can take advantage of being things online, but they also use systems in places like the movies, when they make use of a kiosk to purchase tickets and avoid a line. There are also companies like Amazon, that operate primarily online, but are branching out into small satellite stores, to generate more awareness for the brand and so people can experience the merchandise firsthand. “When you look at point of sale holistically, and as an e-commerce player you begin to see opportunities where you were not playing before,” explains Farun, “and if you start playing in those areas, you’ll see that there’s a win.”

3. Use Locally-Sourced Goods

Forex shortages have affected retailers quite a bit, but they haven’t affected all Nigerian retailers “A lot of retailers have been able to adapt, and some that initially pulled out have come back into the market,” says Obinna Onunkwo, a co-managing partner at Purple Capital. “Those of them that had the foresight to look for local alternatives, or local producers are doing relatively well – those that were not able to make that transition are doing badly.”

Michael Chudi Ejekam understands the retail environment in Nigeria and still believes this is a good time for people to begin a business, but also adds that much of one’s success has to do with the strategy a business creates. Although these three tips may not be a comprehensive strategy for success, it’s a good start for anyone looking to get into the game right now.

Through the years, Michael Ejekam has had a hand in the development of several malls throughout Nigeria and Africa as a whole. These retail spaces aren’t just a sign of a growing economy, or even of improving lifestyles for people. For Nigeria’s unemployed young workers, they may be a sign of hope. This Michael Ejekam blog explores the unemployment issue in Nigeria and how retail just might be a key piece in solving it.

A “Society in Danger of Destruction”

Not too long ago, the president and CEO of Dangote Group in Nigeria used that phrase to describe the difficult employment situation. Aliko Dangote spoke out about the dangers associated with unemployment in a 2015 editorial, which served as an open letter to the Buhari administration. Referring to youth unemployment (up to age 34) as “the monster that has kept our teeming youths on the fringes of human existence,” he called for the administration to “slay” it. “Our entire society is in danger of destruction unless we pay attention to this huge segment of our young and jobless global population,” he added. Around that time, youth unemployment rested around 50%, an astounding level that no doubt contributed to countless other issues throughout the country.

Retail Could Help Break the Cycle

Naturally, as the population grows, so, too, does the unemployment rate. The good news is, retail could play key role in reducing youth unemployment throughout the country. Broll Nigeria recently held a roundtable discussion called “Retail Industry: 10 Years from Now,” and the industry experts concluded that retail could be the biggest employer of youths in the coming years. Bolaji Edu, CEO of Broll Nigeria, offered further insights into the industry. “Despite a challenging environment,” he said, “Nigeria still holds promise for investors who are willing to take a long-term approach on investments.” However, the government will play a large role in whether retail continues to expand and create jobs. “The outlook for the retail sector is largely dependent on economic reforms as well as the lifting of foreign exchange restrictions,” Edu added.

So, although retail may not be a magic bullet that slays the beast, it very much could be with the right governmental procedures and policies in place. This would not only impact the Nigerian youths of today, but will build for a better future for the country overall.

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Michael Chu’di Ejekam has been active in the commercial real estate market both in Africa and in the United States. With a core focus on selecting strong real estate investments, he’s had a hand in the creation of millions of dollars in retail space. Naturally, the real estate market in Africa is different than that of the United States, and the rest of the world for that matter, but we are seeing some global trends in how entrepreneurs are making the most of their space and paving the path to success. While the deals that Michael Chu’di Ejekam helps bring to fruition are a catalyst, it’s the strategies we’re seeing implemented now that are helping businesses reach new heights in our increasingly connected world.

Shared Space

Although we’re all familiar with the model of having an anchor store or two paired with other smaller venues, one of the newest trends puts multiple retailers under a single roof in a shared space. It’s akin to a traditional market, yet in a formal retail setting. Google is one of the best-known brands to do this. The company launched an immersive shop inside Currys PC World, a London department store. The goal of the Google store was to give consumers a chance to try out Google products and truly experience them before they made a purchase. The company says they plan to open more using the same model.

Pop-Up Shops

Short-term spaces are nothing new, either, but we’re seeing more of them in the formal setting as well. While traditionally reserved for holiday or seasonal goods, and perhaps even a roadside stand could be considered the same, today’s pop-up shop is highly organized. The trend may have begun as landlords who could not fill long-term spaces agreed to short-term leases, but the concept has blossomed into certain venues only offering up retail space for short periods of time. There are now even companies that specialize in connecting landlords with tenants in a peer-to-peer marketplace. While still used for seasonal goods, pop-up shops have also become an attractive option for businesses that want to improve branding efforts or increase awareness of their normally online enterprise.

Commingling Real World and Online Experiences

Many of the big-name brands, like Target and Amazon, have started creating hybrid stores. These shops have a limited amount of merchandise, giving consumers the opportunity to hold and experience a product before they buy it. This is immensely important in the tech industry, and this is where Amazon shines. Their stores are primarily billed as bookstores, but they have Kindles and other devices, as well as classes on how to use them, so consumers feel more comfortable and familiar with their products. When shoppers don’t find the book they’re looking for in the store, seamless ordering is just a click or a tap away.

As emerging markets continue to grow, these trends throughout the world will likely come into play. Retail has come a long way, and these strategies will help usher them into entrepreneurial success.

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Michael Chudi Ejekam was part of the team that brought Heritage Place to fruition. As Nigeria’s first green certified commercial building, it has paved the way for other buildings and raised the standards for commercial development. The building, itself, is sleek and modern, very much befitting of the busy commercial district it serves in Lagos and most people wouldn’t realize how much thought went into incorporating green features from the start. This Michael Chudi Ejekam blog will cover three of the ways Heritage Place went green, along with some insights as to why these changes are necessary for all structures going forward.

1. Recycled Water

There are two main kinds of recycled water; graywater and brown/blackwater. The latter tends to refer to water from toilets and other dirty sources, while graywater has less impurities and comes from things like washing hands. One may also think of harvested rainwater as recycling, simply because it can be gathered from areas that don’t need it and used in areas that do. Systems that recycle rainwater and graywater are becoming commonplace in commercial structures, built in from the start. The water is cleaned and then used for things like irrigation and toilets. The obvious benefit to this is that less drinkable water is needed for a building, and consumption can drop in the neighborhood of 20-30%.

2. Building Orientation

One of the easiest things for builders to take into account is the orientation of the building. This is a passive way to provide energy efficiency and keep people inside the building more comfortable. Simply by choosing the ideal shape of the building and angling it properly, the building can naturally minimize solar exposure. Heritage Place is set up this way, which reduces the load on cooling units throughout the building, so they run more efficiently and last longer, and it also keeps people inside more comfortable, with less effort. You’ll also note that the structure of Heritage Place has multiple jaunts and awnings, which helps minimize solar exposure as well.

3. High-Efficiency Lighting

Nowadays, we all know that the type of bulb used matters. The old incandescent bulbs are energy hogs and need constant replacement. Fluorescent lighting is a better option, but beyond this, LED lighting is the best available right now. The bulbs last seemingly forever and use very little energy, saving money on power, labor, and replacements. Heritage Place took this a step further and included presence detectors, so the lighting only operates when people are active and in a room.

These are three simple things that nearly any builder can do to help create a greener building, without having to spend huge amounts of money to make it happen. Moreover, they save on the costs of maintaining the building, which seriously adds up over time.

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Michael Ejekam has been involved in the creation of several malls, including the Ikeja City Mall and the Jabi Lake Mall, as well as the Abuja and Accra Malls. These kinds of projects are always exciting, as they show that investors have faith in the economy and they bring jobs and growth to the area. Although Michael Ejekam was not involved in the newest mall to open in Lagos, Nigeria, it’s still good news for local residents.

The Maryland Mall is Open

Onikepo Akande, President of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) spoke at the inauguration celebration. “It is my sincere belief that this new mall will help to expose and grow the manufacturing and commercial potential of Lagos state and by extension, the national economy,” she said. Anchored by a Shoprite store, with many other venues for entertainment, shopping, and services, the location is expected to do quite well. Many businesses are eager to take up slots in the 7,700 square metre property, including companies like Stanbis IBTC Bank and The Place restaurant. Akande gives credit to the team behind the new development, explaining, “Indeed, retail is one of the cornerstones of trading and investment, and Purple Capital, the developers of Maryland Mall, have done extremely well to give Maryland a new lease of life through this retail investment.”

It’s a Unique Structure in a High-Volume Area

The Lagos State Ministry of Transport carried out studies of the area, highlighting traffic patterns and the best way to position things. It’s estimated that 5,000 cars will pass by every single hour, which will bring people naturally to the mall throughout the normal course of their days. Unlike most structures being built today, the Maryland Mall is built lengthwise, rather than reaching into the air. It also boasts a few unique features, such as an underground parking lot, which is the first one in the country. Developers has also included a massive 550 square metre LED screen on the front of the building, which is the largest in all of Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s estimated that the structure cost some $25 million to construct, and took roughly three years to bring to fruition, from the early investing stage through opening day. So far, it has been well-received by local residents, who have largely been treating visits as a family outing and appreciating the nice cool air conditioning.

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Michael Chu'di Ejekam

Michael Chu'di Ejekam is a Commercial Real Estate Developer born in Nigeria. He is a graduate of "The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania", a private Ivy League university business school located in Philadelphia.