One of the major questions that exist when predicting the win totals of all major league baseball teams is which of the playoff teams will start to depreciate. Once that happens, the next question is how that will impact the team going into the current season. Players get older and their impacts over time are no longer what they were during their prime. It happens differently with different players and without notice, can happen to multiple players at the same time. We have seen it happen with good teams such as the 2014 Tigers and the 2012 Phillies. The 2014 Tigers have retooled and added important core pieces. The Phillies of 2012 on trusted the talent they had already assembled and were hoping their core players would rebound. The Phillies have completely tore it down and started over and we will find out very soon whether the Tigers will be doing the same thing. The St. Louis Cardinals are probably the most consistent franchise in all of baseball right now. The Cardinals have made the postseason each of the past five seasons and have had winning records in the last eight. Prior to their last losing season in 2007, the Cardinals had winning season in the past eight seasons as well. The most recent version saw the team win 100 games and there are many reasons think the team can perform at that same level. The one player who is considered the heart and sole of the Cardinals franchise is catcher Yadier Molina. The reigning seven time All Star and eight time Gold Glover has a value to the Cardinals that it is hard to match for any other player for any team. Molina has proven to be a clutch hitter and is and has been the best defensive catcher in the game. Most importantly, Molina has made the Cardinals pitching staff as good as it is and is considered one of the best game callers with his preparation being perhaps the best the game has ever seen. Offensively, the .283 career hitter has not fallen off. He hit .270 last season, though his on base plus slugging dropped to .660, the lowest it has been in a season since 2006. The 33 year-old has battled injuries over the past two seasons, costing him the deciding game in the 2015 National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs as well as three games of the 2014 National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants. It is safe to say there are few players more important to their team that Yadier Molina is to the St.Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals lost starting pitcher Lance Lynn (12 wins, 11 losses, 3.03 earned run average, 167 strikeouts, just over 175 innings pitched) for the 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. John Lackey (13-10, 2.77, 175, 218) left to join the rival Cubs as did star right fielder Jason Heyward (.293, 13, 60, .797). The Cardinals did sign right hander Mike Leake (11-10, 3.70, 192 innings pitched) as a free agent and are counting on the return of top starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.41, 7 games, 4 starts). The Cardinals also traded outfielder John Jay to the San Diego Padres for infielder Jedd Gyorko (.247, 16, 57, .694). The acquisition of Gyorko seemed like a depth move because of the Cardinals infield situation. Second baseman Kolten Wong (.262, 11, 61, .707), shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.275, 17, 71, .745) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (.272, 28, 84, .871) all played in over 150 games last season. However, the sudden injury to Peralta will cost him the first two or three months of the season and Gyorko will get to see a lot of time at shortstop. Ironically, Gyorko played 29 games at shortstop in 2015, a position he had never played professionally before. Perhaps it was the seasoning he needed to help the Cardinals in 2016. Expect the Cardinals to be active in trying to find a more natural shortstop to help out defensively. The Cardinals also signed reliever Seung Hwan Oh, a top relief pitcher from Japan, to help out the back of the bullpen. The Cardinals have a lot of depth both in infield and the outfield. Outfielders Randall Grichuk (.276, 17, 47, .877) and Stephen Piscotty (.305, 7, 39, .853) have become everyday players. Matt Holliday (.279, 4, 35, .804) is coming off an injury plagued 2015 but is playing some first base with the hopes of preserving his legs for the season. The Cardinals also have first baseman Matt Adams (.240, 5, 24, .657), himself limited to just 60 games last season. The addition last season of left hand hitting Brandon Moss (.226, 19, 58, .711) gives the Cards essentially five players to use in their four positions. Brayan Pena (.273, 0, 18, .659) has been brought in to give Molina a little more rest. Perhaps having a legitimate backup will allow for manager Mike Matheny to rest Molina a little more throughout the season and Pena can start behind the plate for weeks at a time if Molina were to have to go on the disabled list. With a healthy Peralta, hopefully in two months as opposed to three, the Cardinals have as deep of a bench as anybody in baseball. The Cardinals lineup I would go with right now is Carpenter 3B, Piscotty RF, Grichuk CF, Holliday LF, Moss 1B, Molina C, Gyorko SS, Wong 2B. Adams will play some first with Moss filling in for the corner outfielders. Tommy Pham (.268, 5, 18, .824) is likely to make the team because he provides insurance in center field, something the team does not have anywhere else. The key to the Cardinals rotation will be how much of an impact Wainwright will have as he returns from his injury. He looked great towards the end the season, however, the Cardinals expect him to be their ace. Wainwright's second and third seasons back from Tommy John (2013 and 2014) saw him return to the pitcher he was at just prior to the operation in 2009 and 2010. Those four seasons saw Wainwright win a total of 78 games, finish with an ERA between 2.38 and 2.94 each season and also finishing in the top three in the National League Cy Young voting all four seasons. While it is not silly to think he can pitch as well as he did in those four seasons, I think it is important to question his durability at this point in his career. He may defy the odds, but he will be 35 this season and is being counted on to be the team's top starter. However, having Leake, Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38, 153 Ks in just over 181 innings pitched) and Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.01, 184 Ks, just under 180 IP) may allow for a transition in power in the Cardinals rotation. If Wainwright can pitch well as a number three starter and two of the three can pitch well enough to be a one and a two, the Cardinals rotation looks a lot deeper. Left hander Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43, 20 starts) had a solid bounce back season coming off injuries that have sidelined him for the past couple seasons. Let us see if Garcia can handle an increased workload, perhaps as many as the just under 1995 innings he pitched in 2011. Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 2.10, 48 saves, 83 Ks, just less than 69 IP) has become one of the more dependable closers in all of baseball. Oh, who dominated for eleven seasons in Korea and Japan with 357 saves and averaging almost 11 K per 9 innings pitched, joins a solid mix with fixtures Kevin Siegrist (7-1, 2.17, 90 Ks, less than 75 IP) and Seth Maness (4-2, 4.26, 76 games). Maness had a couple rough outings in 2015 but overall pitched as well as he did the year before. The Cardinals could possess one of the better bullpens in the entire National League if they can get a major contribution from Jordan Walden, the forgotten player in the Shelby Miller/ Heyward trade. The one time Los Angeles Angels closer has averaged nearly 11 Ks per 9 IP. Jonathan Broxton and Mitch Harris will also be in the mix. On the Cardinals radar this season should be top overall prospect Alex Reyes. The right handed pitcher managed to strike out 15 batters in just over 101 innings in three different levels last season. Perhaps he is the first to come up to the rotation if there is an injury as the Cardinals really do not have a ton of depth past their top five. Left handers Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzalez will also be in the mix, both being pretty highly touted themselves a couple years ago. Shortstop Edmundo Sosa looks to have the ability to be a very good offensive player. If the 20 year old can move through the minor league system this season, maybe he can get a look as a September call-up this year. If not, he may have a shot to make the team out of spring training next season. The Cardinals really have not gotten enough credit for being as consistent as they have been for the last 15 years. They have done a great job developing young players and working them in to replace some of the veterans. Losing Peralta is not the end of the world, but it hurts. Losing Lynn is not going to determine their season, but it is worth noting. Wainwright and Molina are going to need to be healthy if this season is going to go as expected (the Cardinals are always expected to do well). I see this team as fragile, though they are very talented. Las Vegas has the Cardinals at 87.5 as their over/ under and I will take the under. I have the Cardinals at 80-82, third place in the National League Central.

As I have reached number 11 in my countdown previews, it has come down to the last team I have on the outside looking in. If you have followed my previous previews, you see what teams I have in the playoffs. Let the discussion continue, as these predictions are my own. I have not depended on opinions of others and certainly have not used the standard reference of baseball prospectus. The St Louis Cardinals made the postseason in spite of the loss of manager Tony LaRussa, star slugger Albert Pujols and renown pitching coach Dave Duncan. They battled the eventual World Series Champion San Francisco Giants to a seven game NLCS. The Cardinals have a strong core coming back this season but will likely be without ace Chris Carpenter for the entire season. This sounds like deja vu, as they were told the same fate prior to last season. Carpenter returned to make 3 starts in September and being part of the postseason rotation. It is unclear whether that is a possibility this time around. Their 16 game winner and leader in 2012 NL winning percentage Kyle Lohse is still a free agent with the Cardinals unlikely to bring him back. However, the Cardinals bring back a core of strong starting pitchers led by free agent to be Adam Wainwright (14-13, 3.94). Jake Westbrook (13-11, 3.97), Lance Lynn (18-7, 3.98) and Jaime Garcia (7-7, 3.97) give the Cardinals a dependable four with Shelby Miller likely to land the 5th spot. Miller, 22, made 1 start last season and appeared in a total of 6 games, posting a 1.32 ERA with 16 Ks in 13 2/3 IP. Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly are top pitching prospects that can be expected to start or relieve this season, as both contributed in last year's postseason run. I would expect Rosenthal (0-2, 2.28 with 25 Ks in 22 2/3 IP) to contribute as a reliever if he is not put in the rotation this season. His high 90s fastball and nasty secondary pitchers could set him up to close or be a dominant starter. Jason Motte (4-5, 2.75, 42 saves) will remain the closer for the distant future. His 2012 season (86 Ks in 72 IP) does not get a lot of attention. Edwin Mujica (0-3, 3.03, 70 games) and Mitchell Boggs (4-1, 2.21, 78 games) will be the primary set up men from the right side. Mujica pitched to a 1.03 ERA in 29 games after he was acquired from the Marlins last season. Marc Rzepczynski (1-3, 4.24, 70 games) and free agent Randy Choate (0-0, 3.03, 80 games) will provide manager Mike Matheny with two dependable options from the left side. I expect Rosenthal to make a huge impact this season. John Jay will be the starting CF again this season, but the question is for how long? Oscar Tavarez (the number 3 overall MLB prospect according to MLB.com) is expected to be ready this season. Jay (.305, 4, 40 in 105 games) has proven he can hold the job, but is more likely to be the odd man out with Carlos Beltran (.269, 32, 97) and Matt Holliday (.295, 27, 102) the other starting OFs. Allen Craig (.307, 22, 92 in 119 games) will be the starting 1B, as his slugging percentage remains one of the highest in the game even with the limited ABs. Yadier Molina (.315, 22, 76) had his best offensive season as the team's catcher. David Freese (.293, 20, 79) will man 3B with Matt Carpenter (.294, 6, 46) expected to make the transition from the OF/ 1B role to starting 2B. Skip Schumaker did it previously and before that Kelly Johnson with Atlanta, so it can be done, especially one with the bat of Carpenter. SS is the main hole in this offense. Rafael Furcal's season may be over before it started and the team just released Ronny Cedeno. This means the team will go with a combo of Pete Kozma (.333, 2, 14 in 72 ABs) and Daniel Descalso (.227, 4, 26). Kozma was a weak hitting minor league INF before he came up last September and hit. The Cardinals will be in a market for a middle infielder especially with Carpenter needing a late inning defensive replacement. The Cards lineup should look like this: Jay CF, Beltran RF, Holliday LF, Craig 1B, Molina C, Freese 3B, Carpenter 2B, Kozma/ Descalso SS. Veteran Ty Wigginton comes in to back up on the corner INF and OF, with Shane Robinson, Adron Chambers and back-up catcher Tony Cruz finishing off the bench. The Cardinals are always equipped fro September, when they seem to play their best baseball. The young pitchers could make the rotation one of the best in baseball or they can quickly miss the veterans in Chris Carpenter and Lohse. Vegas has their over/ under at 85 1/2, and I think they are right on. I have the Cardinals at 86-76, 2nd place in the NL Central, just like last season. Unfortunately, that will not be enough to make the postseason. The Cardinals won 88 games last season, so the difference is that little.

The Boston Red Sox and free agent 1B/C Mike Napoli officially broke off negotiations today after agreeing his injury was to serious to proceed with his 3 year contract originally agreed upon. While Napoli is once again a free agent and will likely play elsewhere, the Red Sox need to figure out what to do in regards to who will play 1B for them next season. The Napoli signing was the centerpiece of what the Red Sox's plan was this offseason and will be difficult to gain a player who will project to put up the same numbers as him. Perhaps the Sox will consider free agents like Aubrey Huff and Carlos Lee. Here are some options for the team to pursue via trade. 10. Justin Smoak, Mariners: Smoak has been a disappointment since he was acquired in the Cliff Lee trade with Texas. The Mariners pursuit of offense makes Smoak less need and the price may not be too high. But, questions exist over whether he will ever meet expectations set a few years ago. 9. Brett Wallace, Astros: Wallace would be worth taking a chance on as the price would be very low. He has yet to establish himself in Houston and may not be a regular player this season. A change of scenery could help and would not hurt the Red Sox if he struggles. 8. Justin Morneau, Twins: This move would certainly become the centerpiece of the Red Sox offseason. It is unlikely though, as the Red Sox will probably not part with the necessary pieces to obtain Morneau. He is an intriguing possibility. 7. Daniel Murphy, Mets: Murphy was comfortable a couple of year ago at 1B. He has established himself offensively the past couple seasons. It is unlikely there is a match though. 6. Gaby Sanchez, Pirates: Sanchez is coming off a very down season split between Miami and Pittsburgh. However, he is just a season removed from two very solid seasons in 2010 and 2011 (.273, 19, 85 and .266, 19, 78, respectively). He also is a very good defensive 1B and could be had for cheap as he does not seem to be guaranteed a starting spot with the Pirates. 5. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals: Carpenter showed he could probably handle an every day job last season. Problem is, he is unlikely to play every day with Allen Craig playing 1B and Carlos Beltran, John Jay and Matt Holliday in the outfield. A trade for a similar talent could benefit both teams. 4. Lucas Duda, Mets: Duda is a disaster in the outfield; his best position is 1B. The fact that he has some power could be attractive for the Red Sox. He may benefit from the fresh start. 3. Michael Morse, Nationals: With the Nationals signing Adam LaRoche, whom the Red Sox saw as a backup plan if the Napoli deal fell through. Now that Morse is expendable, add the Red Sox to the list of teams of Morse suitors. 2. Tyler Colvin, Rockies: Similar to Morneau, it would take a lot for the Rockies to trade Colvin. The fact that he may not have a position could entice the Rockies to consider moving him and he played well at 1B when he played there last season. A good fit, but would Boston be willing to part with what it could take to bring him in? 1. Garrett Jones, Pirates: Jones has hit over 20 HR in 3 of the last 4 seasons. The Pirates may be willing to move him and he could benefit from playing in Boston.