Energy Market Analysis - 13-12-2017

Gas prices increased significantly yesterday following an explosion at Baumgarten, a major natural gas hub in Austria. This news followed the shutdown of the Forties pipeline which could put UK supply levels in jeopardy over the coming weeks. Temperatures were also very cold in the UK, lifting LDZ demand, while outages in Norway reduced exports.

The strong gains recorded by gas and oil contracts supported power prices across the curve yesterday, with a rise in coal also a factor. An improved wind generation forecast for today failed to provide any downward pressure on the prompt, while a milder weather outlook was also ignored by near-curve prices.

Market Open

Market Open

Despite on-going risk premiums, gas prices have moved down as the Forties Pipeline is predicted to be offline for a fortnight rather than 3-4 weeks as initially feared. The Baumgarten facility has also resumed transit in all directions but Norwegian flows remain constrained by outages, with issues regarding the restart of Troll. Further out, prices were pressured down by a drop in coal and oil contracts.

Power prices continue to be dictated by gas and oil markets this morning, with significant losses displayed across the curve. Healthier wind generation has weighed on the prompt, with milder weather also reducing heating demand. Meanwhile, weaker coal provided additional bearish pressure on the far-curve.

Brent 1st-nearby prices corrected downwards yesterday but the outlook remains bullish following the temporary shutdown of the largest pipeline in the UK, resulting in the closure of oil production fields in the North Sea.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 48.15ppt and £46.99/MWh, respectively.

If you would like to learn more about how Apollo Energy can help your business find the best deal on its gas and energy contracts then feel free to get in touch by calling us on 01257 239500 or using the form on our contact form.