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Jason, I just don't see how signing young assets could be seen as a "waste" for Houston.

If you're arguing that signing guys like Puig might result in the Astros winning 5 or 10 extra games which might bump Houston down in the draft order, that seems like it would be more than offset by having premium players like Puig in the first place. As it is, the Astros have had back-to-back No. 1 picks, and neither player is likely to have the same long-term value as Puig.

I mentioned Neal Huntington above, Joe, because Pittsburgh under his leadership through 2011 didn't sign any MLB-ready international players. Now I don't know how much $ the Astros are investing in their farm system and scouting, but refusing to jump all over a Puig or Cespedes seems little different from what the Pirates did.

I mentioned Neal Huntington above, Joe, because Pittsburgh under his leadership through 2011 didn't sign any MLB-ready international players.

This is Year 6 of the Coonelly/Huntington regime, the Pirates are only a wild-card team after outperforming their Pythag by 6 games, and the Pirates were in much better shape in 2007* (when Coonelly and Huntington took over) than the Astros were in 2011 (when Crane and Luhnow took over). The Pirates are also in a much smaller market and they've had substantially less revenue at their disposal.

(* Both at the ML level and at the MiL level.)

Now I don't know how much $ the Astros are investing in their farm system and scouting, but refusing to jump all over a Puig or Cespedes seems little different from what the Pirates did.

But what, exactly, have the Pirates done? They just had their first winning season in 20 years, and they're still a ways away from being a favorite in the NL Central. They're just as likely to regress back to .500 next year as they are to be a legit 92-win team (by Pythag) or a 95-win team. I doubt there's a single Astros fan who would endorse going about things the way the Pirates have.

***

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The Astro's #1 pick in 2012 just hit .320/.405/.467 as an 18 YO SS in A ball. He was the #13 prospect prior to the 2013 season. He'll easily be top 10, maybe top 5 next year.

But what, exactly, have the Pirates done? They just had their first winning season in 20 years, and they're still a ways away from being a favorite in the NL Central. They're just as likely to regress back to .500 next year as they are to be a legit 92-win team (by Pythag) or a 95-win team. I doubt there's a single Astros fan who would endorse going about things the way the Pirates have.

My glass is half-full, Joe. That the Bucs may not be a favorite in the division says far more about the talent on the Cards and Reds. I would not bet against them securing another wildcard berth next season.

Oh, and right now, there are tens of thousands of Pirates fans at PNC Park who have alrady forgotten why they were so depressed/angry/bitter from 2009-12.

"For example, take the teams with the ten worst records, and put their names in the hat. (Or eight, or five, the specifics are pretty flexible.)"

We have been doing exactly this - including the hat, literally - in our Rotisserie baseball league farm system lottery for 20 years now, with all seven non-money winners. I pull out a slip of paper that reveals the 7th team, then later in the week I pick for who winds up 6th.

Kills several weeks of boredom in January. Well, it doesn't kill it but it knocks about 5 pct of it out as long as your team name hasn't been pulled yet.

We allow trades of the picks, though - one owner acquired a pick, then a year later won the lottery and got Bryce Harper. Another did the same and got Stephen Strasburg.

Of course, those owners could have sold both at a considerably higher profit than the nice one they got overall for each....

Oh, and right now, there are tens of thousands of Pirates fans at PNC Park who have alrady forgotten why they were so depressed/angry/bitter from 2009-12.

This seems like an oversell. Hard to imagine a non-division-winning playoff appearance, which could last just one game, makes up for the prior four losing seasons, to say nothing of the 20 straight losing seasons. And I doubt if the Pirates regress in 2014 that Pirates fans will be OK with it, while happily remembering their 2013 wild-card appearance (unless, of course, they go on a miracle run and win the WS or something).

Meanwhile, the first four years of Puig's contract would be a waste of money.

That's ridiculous. They are already a couple of years into a rebuild. Avoiding signing good players because you are slotting in 6 terrible years would be a terrible strategy. No team ever needs to punt half a decade - that's insane.

That's ridiculous. They are already a couple of years into a rebuild. Avoiding signing good players because you are slotting in 6 terrible years would be a terrible strategy. No team ever needs to punt half a decade - that's insane.

Again, how long did the Pirates rebuild take? And would you have labeled my comment "ridiculous" had I only said "three years?"

Apparently, you and Joe believe that an Astros club with 101-04 losses instead of 109 with double the payroll would be a much more marketable commodity....

Apparently, you and Joe believe that an Astros club with 101-04 losses instead of 109 with double the payroll would be a much more marketable commodity....

I haven't said anything about marketing, although the Astros with Puig and/or Cespedes would be a lot more interesting than the Astros are without them. My point has been entirely re: the need for the Astros to amass as much young, premium talent as possible.

Waiting until you are good before acquiring the rights to talent for multiple years is a self-defeating (and/or an owner enriching) strategy. Sure, the Astros should wait before spending millions on short-term deals for relievers or veterans.

Most successful re-built teams have lots of guys who had been acquired within only the prior 1-3 years once they have the breakthrough winning season.

I made the point earlier that the Astros *should* attack the international market, Joe/Nate, but to go after the teenagers, not MLB-ready talent. And no, Nate, it is perfectly acceptable to wait until you are on the cusp of coming out of the doldrums before signing the MLB-ready guys.

I made the point earlier that the Astros *should* attack the international market, Joe/Nate, but to go after the teenagers, not MLB-ready talent. And no, Nate, it is perfectly acceptable to wait until you are on the cusp of coming out of the doldrums before signing the MLB-ready guys.

Jason, by this logic, it was foolish for the Astros to draft Mark Appel this year, since his ETA is 2014.

The Astros need premium talent, and they need a lot of it. They simply don't have the luxury of waiting until 2016 to try to ramp up their player-procurement efforts. Among other things, there's no guarantee that there will be a Darvish, Puig, or Cespedes available then.

And no, Nate, it is perfectly acceptable to wait until you are on the cusp of coming out of the doldrums before signing the MLB-ready guys.

Wow, I vehemently disagree with this for several reasons (unless we are thinking of cusp and doldrums in different ways). Generally speaking, you can't get to the cusp of coming out of the doldrums without signing MLB-ready guys.

You don't usually know when the team is on the cusp. The big variability of individual players' performance is compounded when projecting team performance. Also, you can't just simply acquire talent once you decide it is time. Players don't become available at a uniform rate and sometimes you have to get guys in advance of the perfect time.

Think of the 2012 Orioles. That successful re-build would not have happened if they hadn't gotten MLB-ready guys like Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy, Pedro Strop, Chris Davis etc in advance of when they were actually good. Or think of the Nationals with Werth and LaRoche. Or the 2008 Rays with Carlos Pena and Edwin Jackson. Or the 2006 Tigers with Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez.

Generally speaking, you can't get to the cusp of coming out of the doldrums without signing MLB-ready guys.

Nate, I am clearly referring to the international market. Aside from Strop, none of the guys who mention above qualify.

Of course, there's no foolproof way of knowing whether your team is on the cusp, but probably no one here, let alone Luhnow and Jennings, expects the Astros and Marlins to win 75 games next season. (And no one at BTF not named Lassus will think the Mets are likely to be a contender.)

I didn't know you meant international market only. I guess I don't see what the difference is. For example, why would the Tigers signing Magglio Ordonez be worse if he had been the same player, except had been playing in Japan up to that point instead of in the majors?

For example, why would the Tigers signing Magglio Ordonez be worse if he had been the same player, except had been playing in Japan up to that point instead of in the majors?

No worries, Nate.

The '04 Tigers won 72 games. If Dombrowski had signed an Ordonez after the '03 season, that might have been viewed as extreme.

Now maybe it was over-the-top for me to refer to the $ spent on a Puig-like signing as "wasted," particularly if it's a sufficiently long-term deal, and instead should be judged on a case-by-case basis. However, I don't see why the Astros, much like the Pirates from 2008-11, deserve blame for not going down that road.

Aside from the signing bonus, Joe, Appel doesn't cost the Astros more than a bucket of spit for the foreseeable future.

The Astros have only a ~$22M payroll. Beyond that, a guy like Puig almost assuredly would have been revenue-positive for the Astros. (Obviously, no one predicted the Puigmania of 2013, but the Astros have no one on the roster that people are paying to see. A guy like Puig or a bopper like Cespedes would have changed that.)

(Obviously, no one predicted the Puigmania of 2013, but the Astros have no one on the roster that people are paying to see. A guy like Puig or a bopper like Cespedes would have changed that.)

The Wilpons held onto Reyes in 2011, believing that Met fans would want to watch their most exciting (and homegrown!) player compete for the batting title. Alas, Citi Field was pretty quiet throughout August and September.

Joe/Nate: I will crash in a few minutes but happy to catch up sometime tomorrow. Nite.