ASU vs. Washington football game scouting report

by Jeff Metcalfe - Oct. 7, 2010 11:13 PMThe Arizona Republic

Taking a look at ASU's game at Washington Saturday.

Jeff Metcalfe breaks it down and makes a prediction.

ASU First and foremost

Erickson says leading tackler Vontaze Burfict won't start, a disciplinary move stemming from Burfict's inability to control his temper. It's unknown how much Burfict will play, but odds are he won't sit for long. Senior Gerald Munns will start in Burfict's place at middle linebacker. Another defensive change: Redshirt freshman Osahon Irabor is expected to start at cornerback, replacing injured sophomore Deveron Carr.

ASU key stat

69.2: The Sun Devils' red-zone conversion percentage, worst in the Pac-10. Coach Dennis Erickson said this week that the Sun Devils might try to slow down their no-huddle offense inside the 20. They also could use junior QB Samson Szakacsy, who is viewed as both a passing and rushing threat.

ASU key player

DE Junior Onyeali. ASU coach Dennis Erickson hopes the freshman from Denver can jumpstart a defensive line that hasn't threatened the quarterback much all season. Onyeali stands 6-foot-1 according to the roster, but it's his speed, not his size, that causes offensive lines trouble. In last week's loss at Oregon State, he might have been ASU's most disruptive defensive player.

Washington first and foremost

The Huskies are the least-penalized team in the Pac-10, averaging 45.5 penalty yards per game. They have forced six fumbles, recovering two.

Washington key stat

13: Times Washington has converted in the red zone in as many tries. The Huskies are one of only five teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision to produce points every time they venture inside the 20. They have eight touchdowns and five field goals.

Washington key player

QB Jake Locker. The last time Locker played at home he was awful. In a 56-21 loss to Nebraska, Locker completed just 4 of 20 passes for 71 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He was much better last week, leading the Huskies to a huge win over USC in Los Angeles. For the season, Locker is completing 53.8 percent of his passes, averaging 234 passing yards per game. He also is Washington's second-leading rusher, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

ASU on offense

ASU ranks 110th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in turnovers lost. It ranks 111th in red-zone offense. Without significant improvement in both areas, the Sun Devils will have a hard time winning. Freshman RB Deantre Lewis is a bright spot, rushing for more than 100 yards in three consecutive games, but he has a shoulder sprain that could limit his effectiveness. Pass protection was an issue in last week's loss at Oregon State. Washington, allowing 32.5 points per game, ranks near the bottom in most defensive categories. LB Mason Foster leads the conference in tackles.

Advantage: ASU.

ASU on defense

Big plays have hurt ASU. In last week's loss, Oregon State had 12 plays that went for a combined 290 yards. The Sun Devils allow 348.4 yards per game, fifth best in the Pac-10. They've been OK against the run (119.6 rushing yards per game), but below average against the pass (228.8.) ASU has recovered only one fumble in five games and it ranks last in the conference in sacks. Washington QB Jake Locker threw for 310 yards and rushed for 110 in last week's win over USC. RB Chris Polk averages 5.4 yards per carry. The Huskies, averaging 27.8 points. have allowed just three sacks all season.

Advantage: Washington.

Special teams

ASU's special teams have made big plays. Mike Callaghan blocked a punt last week, getting the Sun Devils back in the game. Omar Bolden has returned a kick-off for a touchdown. Thomas Weber has made 8 of 11 field goals, including a season-long of 52 yards. Trevor Hankins averages 50.7 yards per punt, which leads the nation. Washington's Erik Folk drilled a 32-yard field on the last play of the game to beat USC last week. In four games, he hasn't missed yet this season. The Huskies are last in the Pac-10 in kick-off return coverage.

Advantage: Even.

Bottom line

ASU ranks among the nation's worst teams in red-zone offense, penalties and turnovers. That's not exactly a recipe for success. Worse: The Sun Devils haven't sown much improvement in those areas. Washington is coming off a big win over USC and has momentum. Locker is starting to play how everyone thought he would. This one should be close. But until ASU starts eliminating mistakes, it's hard to pick the Sun Devils.