000
FXUS63 KEAX 271111
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
Main concerns in the very short term will be for cold temperatures
and wind chills this morning. The bigger concern in the short term
will be for accumulating snow this weekend.
Another cold morning is underway across the area as a 1042mb Arctic
high is sinking south into the local area. This is allowing for
clear skies and light winds providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows this morning will bottom out between 5 above zero to 5 below
zero. Although winds will be light, wind chill values between 5 and
15 below will greet kids heading out to the school bus and people
making their morning commute. High pressure will remain in control
through most of the day today and as such temperatures will not
rebound much as highs will only achieve the teens to lower 20s which
is 25 to 30 degrees below normal. Clouds will be on the increase
late this afternoon and tonight as winds back to the southeast. This
will keep lows in the upper single digits to mid teens tonight.
This weekends weather maker is evident on water vapor imagery coming
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig south across
the western CONUS today. Tonight, warm air advection will be
underway drawing mid level moisture back into the area. Tomorrow
morning, a shortwave ejecting out from the western trough will move
into the central Plains. Snow will begin to move into eastern Kansas
by late Saturday morning and then overspread the area during the
afternoon hours with deep and broad isentropic ascent the main
driving factor. Snow will then continue into Saturday night with 3
to 5 inches expected by Sunday morning. Models then continue to
advertise a second shortwave moving through the area on Sunday which
will help force a surface trough through the area. Models are
showing a low developing along this surface trough as in moves into
the region. Placement of this low differs amongst models however it
appears that a band of snow capable of producing an additional inch
or two of snow will be possible on the day Sunday. This shortwave
will move through the area by Sunday evening and a quick moving area
on high pressure will build into the area Sunday night drying
conditions out.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
The primary weather focus during the extended will be associated
with the highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough projected
to emerge into the central CONUS by midweek. In advance of this
system, the pattern will favor strong warm air and moisture
advection within a broad warm sector. Initial ascent may generate
some light precipitation within the exiting cold air, providing a
short window of some sleet or freezing rain potential across the
northeast half of the forecast area on Monday. Very warm H85
temperatures of +10C will move into the area by Tuesday morning,
temporarily ending any concern of wintry precipitation. Rain will
overspread the entire area on Tuesday, while temperatures within the
warm sector reach the 40s to middle 50s. A cold front will move
through Tuesday night, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday before the
precipitation ends. Any potential impacts from this multi-day event
should be associated with the beginning and end of the
precipitation, with the large majority of precipitation falling as
rain with above freezing surface temperatures. Thereafter, cold
weather with below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds into the central
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
There will be a increase and lowering in cloud cover though the TAF
pd although conditions will remain VFR. Expect sct cirrus early this
morning to become broken by mid morning. Cigs will then lower to
10kft late this afternoon as mid-lvl clouds moves into the area. Models
indicate a lvl of stratus around 5kft moves into the terminals btn
03Z-05Z and will persist through the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds
this morning will be light and vrb before picking up out the east
between 5-10kts this evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73