Monday, November 27, 2017

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand.

The previous three months combined were revised down.

"Sales of new single-family houses in October 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.2 percent above the revised September rate of 645,000 and is 18.7 percent above the October 2016 estimate of 577,000."emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in October to 4.9 months from 5.2 month in September.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 282,000. This represents a supply of 4.9 months at the current sales rate."

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

In October 2017 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 46 thousand homes were sold in October.

The all time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010.

This was well above expectations of 620,000 sales SAAR, however the previous months were revised down, combined. Some of the recent pickup might be hurricane related (delayed signings). I'll have more later today.