Here\’s what people are saying about the worsening conflict in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday further turned up the temperature in the Ukraine conflict, directly praising pro-Russian separatists while likening Ukraine forces to Nazis and threatening to expand Moscow\’s standoff with the West to the Arctic.

The remarks come as Ukrainian and NATO officials charge that Russian troops have crossed into Ukraine to aid the separatists, a move that Russia has denied. Meanwhile, Ukraine Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said he would ask parliament to put the country on a path toward membership in NATO, the Western military alliance that includes the U.S., a move that would seem unlikely to be embraced by the West.

Here\’s a roundup of what commentators are saying about the current state of affairs:

First, there\’s the Russian domestic political angle:

At The Guardian, Angus Roxburgh, a commentator and former public-relations adviser to the Russian government, says the West\’s attempts to use sanctions to contain Putin\’s ambitions have been the biggest mistake. He argues that Putin is likely to continue to outfox his adversaries:

Since sanctions don’t work, and war is unthinkable (President Obama on Thursday explicitly ruled out military intervention), then only one viable option remains. If Ukraine is to become peaceful and whole again, and Putin prevented from carving chunks out of neighbouring countries, there needs to be political engagement with Moscow.

In contrast, former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker and McAin Institure fellow Erik Brattberg urge NATO and the West to stand tough:

By sending troops, tanks and artillery directly into the Ukrainian fighting, Putin is making a point: He will fight for Ukraine, and NATO will not. He is calling NATO\’s bluff.

The Western response will be read carefully from Kiev to Tallinn to Moscow. For the sake of Ukraine\’s integrity as a country, for future European security and for NATO\’s credibility as a defense organization, NATO leaders need to make some tough decisions and push back militarily against Russia.

Their recommendations include urging NATO to provide \”direct military and intelligence support\” to the Ukrainain government in the form of advisers, trainers, equipment and the \”possibility of direct reinforcement using NATO air and ground capabilities.\”

But more sanctions do appear inevitable, writes Ingo Mannteufel, head of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle\’s Russian department:

This blatant Russian meddling in Ukraine forces Europe\’s hand. However, Ukraine\’s hopes of a military intervention by European nations or NATO are going to be dashed. The EU will tighten sanctions – and this move will fuel escalations even further.

Writing in the September-October issue of Foreign Affairs, University of Chicago political science professor John Mearsheimer puts the blame for the crisis on the West, particularly past rounds of NATO expansion that saw the alliance add several former Warsaw Pact countries:

Putin’s pushback should have come as no surprise. After all, the West had been moving into Russia’s backyard and threatening its core strategic interests, a point Putin made emphatically and repeatedly. Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty-first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy.

(This is a long-running debate. It\’s also worth a look back at this piece from Foreign Policy in April, which argues that Putin is merely using NATO expansion as cover for his desire to be able to \”invade his neighbors at will.\”)

Ulrich Speck, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels, says German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had stepped up to take the lead in the crisis, is left without a \”Plan B.\” He writes on CNN.com that her \”carrot and stick\” approach, which was predicated on Russia\’s indirect involvement, is no longer viable as Moscow moves from \”proxy war to open war.\” That means a \”much less cordial relationship\” ahead for Russia and the West and the failure of the West\’s \”grand strategy of transforming Russia into a liberal democracy\”:

More robust tactics won\’t fly in Germany or in the wider EU. Anything that appears to raise the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia will be vetoed. The only possible option now is to increase sanctions. Diplomacy will take a pause. And every hope of a return to the way relations with Russia used to be will be buried.

Meanwhile, Putin\’s use of the word \”Novorossiya,\” or New Russia, an old tsarist term for an area that encompasses part of Ukraine, is triggering alarm. Putin last used the word in April, just before Russia\’s annexation of Crimea. He used it Friday in reference to pro-Russian separatists. Over at Vox, Max Fisher breaks down what the use of the term has to say about Putin\’s ultimate ambitions:

In other words, Putin\’s choice of phrasing — and picking such a hotly political phrase is no accident — sounds an awful lot like a rhetorical step toward annexing all or part of the rebel-held territory. Significantly, earlier this week Russian forces invaded a part of Ukraine where there had been no previous fighting, along the southeastern-most coast with the Black Sea. That is not a rebel-held area, but it is prime Novorossiya territory.

Putin used the term only in the title of the statement, potentially leaving himself an out, Fisher writes. Putin isn\’t yet \”fully committing himself to the idea of Novorossiya, but his statement is enough of a step in that direction to be legitimately alarming,\” he writes.

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