Grains outlook: After the big drought

“That shocked me to no end,” he says. “This bean crop is better than even the old pros like me thought it was. The crop scouts had missed it.” Crouch says he had gotten out of the market and even gone short on soybeans (see “Broken beanstalk” below) and corn. “I don’t know whether the beans are worth $14 or $18. It will all shake itself out in the next 30 to 45 days. But there is a fundamental that you can think you know, and you actually can be wrong.”

Crouch adds that he is not wrong on corn, however, and that the crop is very short. “I still maintain that the crop will be under 120 bushels per acre,” he says. “I’m rather sure of that. The big jump ball here is what the government is going to do with planted acres and what they are going to do with harvested acres. None of us know that.