Environment ministry documents reveal 2020 target for cutting emissions to be missed by a large margin dealing a “significant blow to Germany’s climate policy”

Germany's transition to renewable energy is not happening fast enough to meet its climate targets, the government has admitted (Photo: Pixabay)

By
Sören Amelang

Germany’s environment ministry fears high emissions from coal-fired power plants and transport will make the country miss its 2020 climate targets by a wider margin than previously anticipated.

The ministry’s warning adds further pressure to make fast progress on climate-related issues in upcoming talks aimed at forming a new government following September’s general elections.

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet its 2020 climate targets, according to calculations by the country’s environment ministry. Without further action, Germany’s CO2 emissions will only be 31.7% to 32.5% below 1990 levels, an internal environment ministry paper seen by the Clean Energy Wire shows.

Given the official target of cutting emissions by 40%, the ministry warns that a failure of this magnitude would constitute a “significant blow to Germany’s climate policy”, and would amount to “a disaster for Germany’s international reputation as a climate leader”.

On the eve of the September general elections, German chancellor Angela Merkel – whose international engagement has earned her the nickname ‘climate chancellor’ – promised that her government will find ways to meet the country’ ambitious climate targets.

In May this year, the government’s forecast already projected an emissions reduction of just about 35%.

The ministry’s paper now cites fresh data to prove that even this figure will not be reached. “In summary, the unexpectedly strong economic growth, low energy prices, the continued rise of power exports, and population growth are the main drivers of this development.”

Economic growth and exports will increase coal-fired power generation, while low oil prices will push up demand in the heating and transport sectors, according to the ministry.

“The expected readjustments regarding the 2020 target at the start of the [new] legislative period become ever more urgent and will have to be much more comprehensive than previously assumed”, concludes the paper.

Greenpeace climate expert Karsten Smid said that “climate protection will become the new government’s first test”, adding that it will have to take “as many dirty coal power plants as possible off the grid very quickly”.

Think tank Agora Energiewende* had already warned in early September that Germany must step up its CO2 reduction efforts without delay if it wants to prevent a spectacular miss of its 2020 climate targets. According to the think tank’s calculations, the country’s emissions might even fall as little as 30%.

Every German government since 2007 has committed to reducing the country’s annual greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. In 2016, emissions were 28 percent lower than 1990.

*Like Clean Energy Wire, Agora Energiewende is a project funded by Stiftung Mercator and the European Climate Foundation.