The American Action Forum will host a presentation by Professor Casey Mulligan on his recent paper, “The ARRA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic,” which examines the February 2009 stimulus law’s effect on the economic incentives for certain workers to seek employment. Despite being designed to induce near-term employment gains, Prof. Mulligan’s paper finds that the intersection of employment taxes and program phase-outs can actually impose a penalty on the employment decision for low-income workers. As the United States moves into a gradual economic recovery and contemplates reforms to the federal safety net, recent experience can provide critical lessons for program design going forward to properly align work incentives with fiscal stewardship.

Join us for this discussion as we hear Professor Casey Mulligan from the University of Chicago present his findings. Following the presentation, Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and key contributor to the design of ARRA and Shannon Mok of the Congressional Budget Office and lead author of a recent CBO report on effective marginal tax rates on low and middle income workers will discuss the paper’s implications.