It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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Ghostbusters felt like a mistake from the very beginning. It is a remake of one the greatcomedies of all time. Then the first trailer came out and it was complete garbage. However, the international trailer was actually relatively good and the writer / director, Paul Feig, hadn’t made a bad movie since Unaccompanied Minors. Does this film live up to the original? If not, is it as good as the average Paul Feig movie? Or were the haters right on this one?
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The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end.
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The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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Star Trek Beyond got off to a fast start with $5.5 million during its midnight previews. This is $2 million more than Ghostbusters made last weekend, plus it has betterreviews. On the other hand, it is a sequel, so the comparison isn’t perfect. We could compare it to the previous installment in the franchise, but that film opened on a Wednesday. X-Men: Apocalypse earned $8.4 million in its previews, but that film earned weaker reviews and is a comic book movie, which tend to be more front-loaded. I was a little more bullish than most with my prediction, but this result make me feel a lot better.
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Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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Ice Age: Collision Course rose to first place with $53.5 million in 51 markets for an early international total of $127.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it earned first place with $7.07 million on 873 screens. That’s a pretty good opening for that market, but the previous film opened with $12.76 million in that market, so that’s a sizable drop-off. The film also earned first place in Russia with $5.85 million on 1,236, compared to $16.97 million the earlier film opened with. That’s really troubling. Meanwhile, the film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $4.99 million in 570 theaters. (We can’t really compare openings here. The numbers we get for the U.K. are actually for the U.K., Ireland, and Malta. It’s similar to the domestic market being Canada and the States. In almost all cases this doesn’t matter, because films open in all three countries at the same time. However, Continental Drift opened in Ireland first, before expanding into the U.K., so there’s no easy way to compare the two results.) At this pace, it looks like Collision Course isn’t going to match its predecessor at the box office. However, it could fail to earn half as much worldwide and still break even on the home market. This might be the last installment in the franchise, on the other hand.
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Café Society earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $71,858 in five theaters over the weekend. This is not only the best of the weekend, it is the best of the year so far, topping the previous champ, Captain America: Civil War, which had an average of $42,390 during its opening weekend. Second place went to Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party with an average of $24,938; however, while this is a great result for a documentary, digging just a little into the film’s numbers reveals major weaknesses. The film fell 50% from Friday to Saturday. That’s devastating. We will see if this is an anomaly or a portent when we get this coming weekend’s results. Ghostbusters and The Secret Life of Pets were neck-and-neck with averages of $11,612 and $11,604 respectively.
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After a huge amount of speculation on how it would perform at the box office, Ghostbusters is coming in right in the middle of (a very wide range of) expectations. Sony is projecting a $46 million debut for the supernatural comedy, which is far from the disaster many had feared, but some way short of the top tier. It’s also not enough for first place, even though The Secret Life of Pets will be down 52% in its second weekend.
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Ghostbusters topped the box office chart on Friday with $17.2 million. This is the best opening day for the director, Paul Feig, topping his previous champ, The Heat by 25%. If this film has the same internal multiplier as The Heat, then it will earn $49 million over the weekend. This seems a little high, but not out of the question. Ghostbusters’ reviews are better than The Heat’s reviews were, although both films earned B+ from CinemaScore surveys. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is a remake, so that tends to make the movie more front-loaded. Look for an opening weekend of $45 million. This is right on the edge between financial success and failure. The film will need help internationally in order to break even, but it is way too soon to know if that will happen.
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This weekend is rather sparse when it comes to wide releases. Ghostbusters opens this weekend and its buzz and reviews are better than expected and it could be a huge hit. On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million last weekend and unless it falls more than 50% this weekend, it will remain in first place. That doesn’t feel likely at this point. On the other hand, The Infiltrator opened on Wednesday, but in less than 2,000 theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive range, so it likely won’t be a major factor over the weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man opened in first place, pushing Minions into second place. Meanwhile, Trainwreck was a solid midlevel hit. I just don’t see 2016 being able to top that depth.
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It is an easy week to pick the target film for the Box Office Prediction Contest. I’m not 100% sure The Infiltrator is opening truly wide, plus it is a Wednesday release. On the other hand, if Fandango is correct, Ghostbusters will be the biggest comedy of the summer and if early tracking is correct, it will have the best non-family film opening since X-Men: Apocalypse. Regardless if they are correct, Ghostbusters is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghostbusters.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Green Room on Blu-ray, plus an additional previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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