Thursday, November 10, 2016

Two Donald Trumps

My predictions - - a tale of two Trumps:

The Good Trump

·Teddy Roosevelt Bigness - - everything he does
will be YUGE. From tax code modernization to infrastructure
investment. Bigness to everything he approaches. If it is not big
- - he is not going to care.

·Socialized Leadership Style - - end of Obama and
W. style presidential remoteness. Constant in your face management
approach and style. The Art of the Deal comes to the Oval Office and
foreign capitals.

·No Deficit or Debt Constraints - - the
Democratization of the Republican Party.

·Owes No One - - Maybe the most powerful
President-Elect in U.S. history (pause and think about that for a
moment). Not beholden to anyone or anything for helping him get
elected. Zero political constraints.

·YUGE increase in DOD and VA spending.

·He and his family maybe smarter than people he
will have on his Cabinet. Executive branch managed more like a family
business than a corporation.

The Bad Trump

·Cannot fix big problems or turnaround certain
industries. The problems of the coal industry is not coal - - the problem
is natural gas. He has made YUGE promises to both the coal and natural
gas industries - - this will be problematic. Manufacturing - - 75% of
manufacturing job loss since 2005 is associated with automation and
robotics. This ship has already sailed. A truck loaded with beer
just went from Denver to Dallas driverless last week. The #1 job of
non-college educated white males - - truck driver - - 1,500,000 employed.
You do the math.

·Russian relations better - - but China relations
goes off the cliff. Increased borrowing (who buys all those treasuries?)
while threatening trade wars? To the Chinese, Trump is a sign/signal of
American declinism. They have been around since the 10th
century - - waiting him out four years is a blip on their time line.
Mexico has the potential to drift very quickly into economic and political
chaos - - this is a YUGE problem for Texas.

·More federal borrowing + higher inflation via
protectionist trade policies = the Era of Higher Interest Rates. and Higher
Inflation Occurring at the Same Time. The disappointment of not producing
enough $45 per hour manufacturing jobs, but producing higher interest rates and
inflation makes for another circus in 2020.