Coming This Fall (Maybe): Assessing The 2019 Network Upfronts

NBCUniversal will kick off the 2019 network upfronts on May 13 from Radio City Music Hall. The presentation to advertisers will include programming from NBC, Syfy, Bravo, USA Network, MSNBC, Oxygen, E! and Telemundo, among others. (photo credit: Getty)

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With all the disruption taking place across the video landscape, there remain a few industry constants. One of those is the network upfronts. Over the past few months, programming executives at the five English language broadcast networks have been reading scripts of potential programs, ordering pilots, screening dailies and then watching the pilot episodes. This process has not changed in over 50 years.

Each spring, network executives will evaluate potential new programs, assess the strength of their current programming lineup and put together a linear schedule for the 2019-20 season. They will unveil their new schedule, a mixture of new and returning programs, to advertisers during upfront presentations in Manhattan in mid-May. In the ensuing months, over $20 billion worth of advertising time will be negotiated across English and Spanish language broadcast networks as well cable and syndicated television programs.

With over 500 original scripted programs expected to be produced this year across all platforms, the number of broadcast programs has remained steady in recent years at around 150. According to the Hollywood Reporter, the networks have ordered about 65 pilots for the upcoming 2019-20 season. Typically, the cost to produce a half-hour comedy pilot is about $2 million. For a one-hour drama pilot the average cost is about $5.5 million.

To assess the 2019-20 program development season, I asked Carolyn Finger, the Senior VP of Variety Business Intelligence, for her thoughts. Their flagship product, Variety Insight, is the leading entertainment data solution for verified, timely, and accurate metadata around people, projects, and companies that work in the global entertainment business. Finger has been analyzing and assessing programming development trends across all screens for years.

Question: Despite all the video disruption, why are the networks still sticking to upfront presentations?

Carolyn Finger: The upfront is a relic of the 1960s. What’s still relevant is ad buyers want a discount for buying ‘upfront.’ The big difference is rather than the presentation being centered on the broadcast networks, it’s evolved into a showcase for all of the assets of the corporate conglomerates. I think that’s what keeps it going.

Question: What impact has digital media streaming video had on program development?

Finger: It presents both pressure and opportunity. The pressure being the sheer volume of original content across platforms. Networks are also competing against the vast libraries of content available on demand, which keep show like Friends top of mind. The opportunity is that shows benefit from streaming in different ways. The show in season two may get a bump from people discovering season one online. Having a streaming home for its content can create the financial model that subsidizes a network’s linear broadcast.

Question: What trends are you seeing in the 2019-20 development season?

Finger: Family relationships are at the forefront, particularly in comedies and in NBC’s series order for Council of Dads. Inclusion in casting remains a priority. Most of the series pickups so far have been safer choices. Some examples are ABC’s Black-ish spinoff, Mixed-ish, CW’s Batwoman, Katy Keene and Nancy Drew and CBS’s series commitment for the spinoff FBI:Most Wanted. NBC’s political comedy vehicle starring Kal Penn, Sunnyside, is a little riskier.

Question: Over the past season, there have been widespread changes in management at CBS, NBC, ABC & Fox. What impact have they had?

Finger: Kelly Kahl is the only incumbent network president among the big four networks. This season began with his mentor, Leslie Moonves, being ousted in disgrace from sexual misconduct allegations. ABC was roiled by its president, Channing Dungey, having to fire Roseanne Barr for racist tweets. Dungey has now joined Netflix, following Shonda Rhimes and Kenya Barris, who remain huge ABC assets. Both of NBC’s main programmers defected to streaming services. With Disney’s acquisition of 21st Century Fox, Fox Network is now a stand-alone entity. All the networks will be fighting to regain stability over the next season.

Question: What are the most important criteria the networks use to pick up a program?

Finger: That used to be a very straightforward answer – ratings. Also, while focus groups and data have always played a role, decisions were often driven by relationships or gut feelings. All of those factors still matter, but the algorithm is shifting. Linear TV performance is important, but shows can be saved by buzz on a streaming platform. A lower-performing series that is owned by the network’s vertically aligned studio will fare better than one that isn’t.

Question: What programs in development this season do you think will be successful and why?

Finger: I’ve learned the hard way not to make predictions, but I always look at the shows that make a splash at the L.A. Screenings with the international buyers and that trend in social media. To mix a metaphor, I have a ‘Spidey’ sense that Batwoman may be one of those series.

Brad Adgate is an independent media consultant. He has spent a number of years providing media insights for advertising agencies and media companies.