BMI View: Despite the geopolitical uncertainty rising from the Russian intervention in Kiev, we believe that Moldova's healthcare and pharmaceutical market will continue to grow in 2014 as the economy continues to improve. This is because Moscow's intervention in Ukraine has substantially raised the likelihood of the signing of an Association Agreement with the EU. This will give access to a large market and offset the restrictions on migrant workers imposed by Russia as Moldovan migrant workers, whose remittances contribute nearly 20 per cent to Moldovan GDP, gain access to the EU's market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: MDL2.73bn (US$214mn) in 2013 to MDL2.91bn (US$230mn) in 2014; +6.3% in local currency terms and +7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q114 due to improved economic conditions.

Healthcare: MDL10.33bn (US$830mn) in 2013 to MDL11.16bn (US$880mn) in 2014; +8.0% in local currency terms and +6.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased slightly from Q113 because of improved economic conditions.