Highest quarterly attack total since group took Mosul in June 2014;
Al-Qaeda affiliates take a back seat five years after Bin Laden, but are
significant threats

May 02, 2016 05:42 AM Eastern Daylight Time

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Islamic State has increased the tempo and intensity of operations in
Iraq and Syria over the past three months, according to new analysis
released today by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of
critical information and insight.

“Following territorial losses, we are seeing a steady upward trend in
the tempo of Islamic State operations worldwide, but particularly in
Syria and Iraq,” said Matthew Henman, head of IHS
Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC). “Attack and fatality
numbers have jumped. The group is resorting more and more to
mass-casualty violence as it comes under heavy pressure from multiple
angles.”

In Syria and Iraq, attack figures for the first quarter of 2016 compiled
by IHS
JTIC were the highest since the group took Mosul in 2014. This past
quarter also saw the highest number of fatalities since the second
quarter of 2015. IHS JTIC recorded 891 attacks and 2,150 non-militant
fatalities in Syria and Iraq between 1 January and 31 March 2016,
representing increases of 16.7 percent and 43.9 percent, respectively,
in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2015.

Hot spots: Libya and North Caucasus

The latest IHS JTIC report also highlighted new trends of Islamic State
violence in Libya and the North Caucasus.

“Islamic State attacks are intensifying in Libya after a several month
slump,” Henman said. Almost as many attacks were recorded in the first
three months of 2016 as in the third and fourth quarters of 2015
combined. “After a seeming period of consolidation and preparation,
Islamic State forces in the country launched a series of major attacks
on critical energy infrastructure in addition to conducting the
deadliest single attack since the overthrow of the government of Muammar
Ghadaffi in August 2011.”

Significant Islamic State activity was also recorded in the northwest of
the country, centred on the town of Sabratha, which has become a key
training area and staging ground for Islamic State attacks in Tunisia.

“In Russia’s North Caucasus region, new data suggests an evolution of
Islamic State capabilities,” Henman said. “The one previous verified
operation by the group’s franchise in the region (Wilayat al-Qawqaz) in
Q4 2015 was a small-arms attack. In the first quarter of 2016, the group
conducted an IED attack and two suicide car bombings. This evolution
indicates a growing capacity to plan, organise and execute more complex
operations.”

Al-Qaeda

On the fifth anniversary of the raid on the Bin Laden compound, the
Islamic State has seemingly seized the mantle from the group. “The
Islamic State has established itself as the self-professed true vanguard
of militant Islamism and the only game in town,” Henman said. “While the
Islamic State dominates the headlines and global discourse on terrorism
and insurgency, Al-Qaeda’s four primary affiliates continue to pose a
significant and expanding threat in their respective areas of operation
that should not be overlooked.”

Long-term threat in Middle East

Jabhat al-Nusra has successfully established itself within the militant
Islamist opposition in Syria. It plays a leading role in several
powerful local alliances, arguably establishing itself as a more
dangerous long-term threat in the country than the Islamic State.

Expanding threat in North and West Africa

AQIM has expanded its operational borders into West Africa across early
2016, particularly with attacks in Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire.

Resurgent threat in East Africa

Al-Shabaab has begun re-establishing a substantial territorial presence
across south and west Somalia, notably overrunning three peacekeeper
bases since mid-2015.

Arabian Peninsula threat

AQAP has exploited the civil conflict in Yemen to seize coastal urban
centres in the east of the country, albeit losing control of the city of
al-Mukalla on 24 April.

About IHS JTIC

The IHS
Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre uses open source data to
build its global database of terrorist and insurgent events. The
database enables users to search by location, target, group (active and
dormant), tactics and casualty numbers in order to quickly obtain
actionable intelligence and/or data. The database includes over 200,000
events since 2009 and over 250 group profiles. Information from social
media that could not be verified through conventional and trusted news
sources is not included in the data.

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