New Weight on U.S.-South Korea Relations

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration reacted cautiously on Monday to the death of Kim Jong-il in North Korea, consulting with allies and emphasizing stability while putting off, at least for now, any decision on whether to resume food aid or start a new round of bilateral talks with the North.

“I think right now the North Koreans are themselves going to go into a period of national mourning,” said Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokeswoman. “We need to see where they are and where they go as they move through their transition period.”

Envoys who had just returned or were just about to travel to talks aimed at patching up the edges of the tattered relations between Pyongyang and Washington found themselves immersed unexpectedly on Monday in discussions about the implications of the transfer of power.

Initially, administration officials were anxious about South Korea’s reaction. When Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung, died in 1994, the South placed its military on high alert. The United States wanted to avoid a repeat of those tensions this time, but after consultations with South Korean officials — and a phone call between President Obama and South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, at midnight Sunday — the signals from Washington were kept deliberately calm.

“The president reaffirmed the United States’ strong commitment to the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the security of our close ally, the Republic of Korea,” the White House said in a statement early Monday morning. “The two leaders agreed to stay in close touch as the situation develops and agreed they would direct their national security teams to continue close coordination.”

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, after a meeting with Japan’s foreign minister, also spoke cautiously, saying that the situation was “evolving” and emphasizing the need for stability. American officials would stay in close touch with their counterparts in China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, she said. She gave no indication of any communication with the North.

While South Korea did raise its military alert level, it called the step heightened vigilance, and clarified later that it had not officially elevated the “Watch Con” level of combat preparedness.

Pentagon and military officials said that American forces in South Korea were always at a high level of readiness, given the tensions on the peninsula, so no additional alert was necessary at this time.

But the American military also did not want to take any actions that could be viewed as provocative.

Although the delicacy of the moment was not lost on any officials, it appeared that the North Korea military had not taken any unusual actions or ordered any provocative movements. There were even signs that the North had canceled some military exercises since Mr. Kim’s death.

Although there were reports of a North Korean ballistic missile test, a senior Pentagon official said the launching had been set in advance of the leader’s death, and that the short-range missiles that were fired were not aimed toward any target.

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Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta spoke with his South Korean counterpart, and both agreed "that it was critical to remain prudent with respect to all matters related to our security posture there," according to George Little, the Pentagon press secretary.

Given the lack of American access or even insight into the leadership in Pyongyang, the top priority for the United States now would be to keep lines open to Seoul, several officials said, to insure that it continues to react calmly.

“In terms of South Korea, it’s a delicate balance,” said Victor Cha, a senior adviser on Asian affairs in the Bush administration. “You want to stay close to the South Korean allies but also prevent them from doing something rash. The thing you worry about most in this situation is miscalculation.”

That may prove tricky if a power struggle in North Korea prompts the country to take belligerent action against the South. In March 2010, a South Korean Navy warship, the Cheonan, was sunk by a torpedo, killing 46 sailors, in an attack for which the South blamed the North. In November, North Korea shelled a South Korean island, drawing an artillery response several days later.

Mr. Lee has vowed to answer any further attacks with swift and proportionate counterstrikes. He replaced his defense minister after the shelling of the island to underline this tougher stance. In the past year, American and South Korean military commands have developed and practiced plans for a response to any provocation. But they have also remained mindful of the risks of escalation.

American military officials have long worried openly that in the jockeying for power that is likely in North Korea now, either Mr. Kim’s son and anointed successor, Kim Jong-un, or the country’s powerful military commanders might be tempted to consider taking action against the South.

“As North Korea works through the succession that they are ongoing now,” said Gen. Walter Sharp, commander of American forces in South Korea, in April testimony, “I do worry that additional attacks and provocations that are being considered within North Korea.”

Paul Stares, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said there was “some evidence that Kim Jong-un may have been involved at some level in the decision to attack the South Korean naval ship, the Cheonan, as well as he may have also been involved in the shelling of the island in the West Sea.” He continued, “There is obviously concern that, as part of the transition process, that we may see provocations of this kind — again, designed to enhance his leadership and image as a strong leader in North Korea.”

In addition to South Korea, the Obama administration will have to engage China in a dialogue about how to deal with a North Korea in transition. That, too, will be difficult, analysts said, since the Chinese avoided all discussion of this subject while Kim Jong-il was alive, to avoid giving any impression that they were colluding with foreign powers to undermine him.

“They now face a choice,” Mr. Cha said. “If we see some sort of instability in North Korea, are they going to work with us? Or are they going to deflect again?”

That discussion could be complicated by the aggressive stance Mr. Obama took in his recent tour of Asia, in which he announced a greater focus on and military presence in Asia, as well as a diplomatic overture to Myanmar. China criticized what it saw as American muscle-flexing in its neighborhood.