A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for select Hawaiian coastal waters due to strong high pressure far north of the state. Winds have slightly backed off since yesterday across select coastal waters, but windy conditions will remain through the day today. A continued gradual weakening of the trade winds is expected during the first half of this week as the high moves off to the northeast of the area and a weak trough of low pressure approaches the area from the east on Tuesday. The trough is forecast to move across the areas Wednesday and Thursday. Some locally heavy showers will be possible as the trough moves through.

A series of small south swells can be expected through Monday night. A larger south swell is expected to fill in on Tuesday, peak Tuesday night and early Wednesday, then lower gradually Thursday and Friday. A small northwest swell is expected to fill in tonight, peak on Monday, then lower gradually Tuesday and Wednesday. Easterly trade winds will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through Monday. A brief downward trend in heights is expected Tuesday through the middle of the week as the trade winds decrease.

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.49 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 1.83 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:12 am this morning and will set at 06:28 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 7 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 2:54 AM on Tuesday, September 25th.

Maui Weather

°/°

Wind: n/a at 0 mph

Sunrise: Sunset:

current observations as of 3am May 25th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 16th September 2018

Summary

Dry and stable conditions will persist through Tuesday. Breezy trades will hold through Monday, then trend down Tuesday through midweek. Minimal rainfall is anticipated through Tuesday with the best chances remaining over windward and mauka locations through the overnight and early morning hours. Increasing moisture along with light winds will likely translate to increasing rainfall chances across the state Wednesday through the latter half of the upcoming week.

Detailed Discussion

Short-term (through Monday) guidance remains in good agreement and is initializing well with the current pattern and trends. Consensus supports mostly dry and stable conditions with breezy trades holding across the state. Satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) values reflect this and depict a much drier airmass moving in from the northeast (PWs less than 1.3″). Clouds and showers will focus over the typical windward and mauka locations with the best coverage expected overnight through the early morning hours. Rainfall accumulations will remain light.

The extended guidance (Tuesday through Saturday) suggests more of a wet pattern returning as a weak surface trough (remnants of TC Paul) approaches and moves through the islands. The GFS ensemble guidance and ECMWF all remain in good agreement with the timing of this surface feature moving through from east to west Tuesday through Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture following it (PW values expected to climb toward the 2″ mark) combined with falling upper heights over the region and light winds will translate to more of a convective pattern. If the winds drop off enough, land and sea breeze conditions may be realized Wednesday into Thursday. Trades and drier conditions are expected to fill in Friday into next weekend.