Saturday, July 23, 2011

Thanks Andy!

Obviously, it is important to be cautious in drawing conclusions when the attacks just happened and facts are still coming in. But at the Standard, FDD’s Tom Joscelyn, as usual, provides some essential context. A year ago, an al Qaeda cell embedded in Oslo, under the direction of superiors in Pakistan, was thwarted in an attempted bombing. (Thwarted by aggressive intelligence collection, it should be added, including the penetration of email communications — the sort of thing frowned on by European and American critics of Bush counterterrorism.)

In point of fact, if one of what appears to be several conspirators is neither a Muslim nor from an Islamic country, that does cut against the likelihood that this is another episode of Islamic terrorism. On the other hand, there are facts and circumstances that cut in the other direction – including that a jihadist organization has already claimed responsibility; that most terrorism is carried out by Islamists; that al Qaeda and other jihadist groups have for years been seeking European and American recruits (precisely because such operatives would defy the profile, drawing less suspicion); that al Qaeda tried to attack Oslo last year; and that Mullah Krekar recently appeared to threaten attacks if legal action were taken against him, and now legal action has been taken against him.

You may find that, in revising these efforts, the way may be smoothed by a few good stiff shots of well-aged premium Drano.