We’re back after a two-day hiatus. Lots of little changes, and I keep zeroing in on various aspects of the S-Curve and finding conflicts to resolve. As a result, there have been some shifts in a couple of areas, which I’ll detail below the bracket.

Last Four In: UCLA, Baylor, Arizona State, Alabama

UCLA’s resume is buoyed by a couple of key early-season victories, plus acceptable power numbers. If they beat Arizona they’ll be safely in the field. Baylor blew a chance to demonstrate any sort of desire to enter the tournament with their loss yesterday, but I still think their overall profile gets them in. Arizona State is hanging on by a thread, and can’t help itself anymore. Alabama is tricky — they have a lot of really good wins, and while their resume is very heavy on home victories, they also now have a neutral court win vs A&M and a road win vs Florida, and both of those wins are superior to what Marquette or Louisville have. They also have 14 losses already, and it’s tough to see a 15-loss team getting into the field. Winning today vs Auburn would solve a lot of the remaining questions about their place.

First Four Out: Marquette, Louisville, USC, Syracuse

Unfortunately for the Eagles and Cards, they are on the outside looking in. Lots of people have USC in, but the more I look at their resume, the more I don’t like it. If Middle Tennessee doesn’t get an at-large bid (and they won’t), then USC will have zero wins against teams who got into the field on their own merits (New Mexico State doesn’t count). So for USC, I think it’s either win the Pac 12 or miss the tournament — a neutral court win vs Oregon isn’t going to get you anywhere. Syracuse is close, but can’t help themselves anymore.

Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Mississippi State

Notre Dame came relatively close, but despite good power numbers and road/neutral record, they just haven’t shown enough on balance this season. Oregon doesn’t really have a path to the tournament as an at-large; their best bet is to win the Pac 12. Penn State isn’t going anywhere. Mississippi State has a razor-thin margin for getting in, but it’s going to require getting to the SEC title game and then losing to someone good.

Here’s some bracket things to note:

I really like Duke’s chances at a 1 seed. If they beat UNC I think they’ll definitely get the fourth 1 seed ahead of Xavier. I don’t see North Carolina getting a 1 seed, though. Even with a bevy of quadrant 1 wins, UNC still has nine losses on the year.

Michigan finally moved one slot ahead of Michigan State on my S-curve, which is why the Wolverines are in Detroit and MSU is in Wichita. I keep looking for the the big wins on MSU’s resume and I can’t find them.

Auburn could still move ahead of Purdue if they can win the SEC Tournament and beat Tennessee along the way.

Cincinnati is probably stuck on the 2 line.

Xavier can move back on the 1 line if they beat Villanova on a neutral floor — that would probably be enough to get them back ahead of Duke.

I’m most curious where the committee decides to put Nevada and Rhode Island at this point. Their resumes are RPI-bloated but don’t really hold up very well beyond that.