Oct. 7, 2012

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Map: 37th Senate District

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George Latimer had a tough week.

Forty-four percent of 438 likely voters polled by the Siena Research Institute said they preferred Latimer over Bob Cohen, the Republican in the 37th state Senate race. Cohen was favored by 41 percent.

Latimer was ahead, but the margin of error of 4.7 percent makes it a virtual tie. If you believe in polls, that is not a good sign for the Rye Democrat.

In football terms, it’s like being ahead by a field goal in the fourth quarter when the opposing team is driving unmolested toward the goal line.

Add the fact that 15 percent of likely voters were undecided and that is especially worrisome for the Latimer team.

This is bad news because Latimer, a sitting state assemblyman, theoretically has greater name recognition than Cohen, a wealthy New York City landlord who has never held public office. Before he went to the state Legislature, Latimer served as a Rye councilman, a county legislator and county board chairman.

Because the five towns of Latimer’s Assembly district, the 91st, fall within the boundaries of the 37th S.D., he has the added boost of running as a quasi-incumbent. What’s more, he has a large advantage in party enrollment, even with redistricting that added some heavy GOP precincts to the 37th.

In this race alone, Latimer has raised and will spend more money than he has probably spent in all of his previous campaigns combined.

But Cohen has more money – a lot more. This wipes away Latimer’s advantages. Depending on whom you talk to, Cohen could end up spending as much as $3 million. For every buck Latimer spends, Cohen will likely match with five or six — which is overwhelming odds in war and politics.

With assistance from the state GOP, Cohen’s strategy has been to use his considerable campaign cash to flood the public consciousness with a message that Latimer was “the number one property taxer in Westchester County.”

Latimer waited months before responding with counter claims that he actually has a record of lowering taxes. This has been a tough sell.

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For instance, he said he backed the repeal of the MTA payroll tax, which he originally supported. He also said he favored the state’s property-tax cap, which he voted against.

Latimer may have some sound arguments to back up these positions, but they are wonkish, steeped in political calculation and therefore difficult to explain to an electorate with a short attention span.

Fairly or unfairly, the result is that he’s boxed himself into a corner. As a result, he has allowed Cohen to further define him as a flip-flopper.

Latimer polls well on environmental, health and education issues. But we are living in the Age of Economy-Stupid. And economic issues such as property taxes and job creation lead the list of concerns in the 37th S.D., according to the Siena poll.

Cohen outpolls Latimer in all of them.

Latimer has complained that his record and reputation have been smeared. However, he has yet to file a grievance with the Westchester County Fair Campaign Practices Committee over the substance of any of Cohen’s claims.

He did file a complaint over a Cohen TV commercial, but only because it faked a man-on-the-street news report. On Thursday, the FCPC ruled “no finding” on the complaint and then turned around and scolded Latimer for publicly announcing his complaint before the committee had a chance to meet.

The next day, Cohen continued his barrage against Latimer’s tax and voting record at a brief press conference held in front of Harrison Town Hall. He decried a Latimer campaign mailer calling him a “slumlord”—a charge that also came up in 2010 when Cohen first ran for the Senate seat against Suzi Oppenheimer.

“This is absolutely unfair and really a personal attack,” Cohen said.

During the press conference, a new tactic emerged in the increasingly bitter Latimer-Cohen rumpus. A group of about 10 Democratic supporters arrived with hand-made signs, one of which said, “slumlord millionaire.”

Brian Hegt, a Latimer spokesman, said they will continue to show up at Cohen’s public appearances.

Latimer has diehard loyalists. But those Siena poll numbers should worry him — the thin margin, the unfavorable ratings on key issues and that disturbing figure of 15 percent of voters who are still undecided.

Even the “Obama effect” may not materialize for him.

The presidential coattails are looking awfully short right now. According to the poll, 48 percent of voters in the 37th S.D. are for Mitt Romney while 47 percent back Barack Obama.

All this and the money factor makes Latimer an underdog with a month to go before election day.

There’s still time on the clock for team Latimer, but the Cohen juggernaut is showing no signs of running out of steam.