Not just ice albedo

A recent paper by Francis & Hunter provides an interesting discussion about reasons for the recent decline in the Arctic sea-ice extent, based on new satellite observations. One common proposition about sea ice is that it involves a positive feed-back because the ice affects the planetary albedo (how the planet reflects the sunlight back to space before the energy enters the ‘climate system’). Yet, there is more to the story, as the ice acts more-or-less like an insulating lid on top of the sea. There are subtle effects such as the planet losing more heat from the open sea than from ice-covered region (some of this heat is absorbed by the atmosphere, but climates over ice-covered regions are of more continental winter character: dry and cold). The oceanic heat loss depends of course on the sea surface temperature (SST). Open water also is a source of humidity, as opposed to sea-ice (because its cold, not because its dry), but the atmospheric humidity is also influenced by the moisture transport associated with the wind (moisture advection). Francis & Hunter found a positive correlation between lack of ice and the downward long-wave radiation, something they attributed primarily to cloudiness. Hence, clouds play a role, both in terms of influencing the albedo as well as trapping out-going heat. Francis & Hunter suggest that the changes in the long-wave radiation is stronger than the clouds’ modulation of the direct sunlight.

In the past (IPCC TAR), sea-ice models were notorious for difficulties in providing realistic description. Part of the problem, however, may also be the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere component. I do not know if these aspects are improved in the upcoming IPCC report, however, Francis & Hunter propose several factors that may affect the sea ice edge position, such as oceanic influences, river discharge, non-linear effects, temperature advection and wind, and find that they play different roles in different locations.

The polar regions have white nights during summer with 24-hour sunshine (albeit at an angle) and 24-hour darkness during winter. The albedo feed-back of sea-ice can only be active during summer when there is sunlight to be reflected. The sea-ice extend also varies with seasons, with more open sea during summer and more ice covered area during winter. Furthermore, sea ice is pushed around by surface winds. Thus the effect of any change in the sea-ice extent may differ for different seasons. Less sea-ice during winter may cause more heat loss from open sea – however, at one point when the temperature drops sufficiently, ice will start to form again. Open sea may provide more favourable conditions for polar lows (storms). Cooling in the surface layer and mixing from wind exposure may furthermore affect oceanic currents and perhaps the deep water formation. During summer, the extra shortwave absorbtion is likely to dominate.