China And The Ticking Clock

April 11, 2001

With each passing day that the 24 American crew members are held on China's Hainan Island, the likelihood grows for substantial damage to China's standing in the world.

Yes, there are reports they are being kept in relative comfort--an air-conditioned hotel, the food is good and boredom their biggest complaint. But the fact is they are being kept, detained, held hostage in a diplomatic chess game that--in public at least--appears at a stalemate.

Their continued detention serves no purpose other than to stoke the fires of resentment in China. Those are dangerous flames to fan and cooler heads in China's ruling circle surely must know this. This is as much about power politics as it is about saving face.

The Bush administration, to its credit, has been remarkably calm and restrained, coupling public statements of regret and sorrow with intensive private negotiations. President Bush personally sent his condolences to the wife of the Chinese pilot who apparently died when his jet collided with the U.S. surveillance plane over international waters a week ago Sunday.

At the moment, and for reasons that are baffling, given the stakes involved in this relationship, those public and private expressions of regret have not been enough to constitute the full apology that China seeks. Just how long China is prepared to hold these Americans, recognizing that such action will have serious consequences, is unknowable.

But this question must be asked: What is it China hopes to gain by this conduct?

Surely it can't believe this somehow lessens the tensions with the U.S. over further arming Taiwan? Surely it can't believe this makes increasing trade with China easier? Surely it must comprehend that this could impact negatively on its bid for the 2008 Olympics.

If China hopes to gain a U.S. promise to forego further surveillance flights--in international airspace--along China's coast, that will not be forthcoming. Nor should it.

China certainly is a growing power to be reckoned with in Asia, but the U.S. has, and continues to have, legitimate national security and economic interests there. In recent decades, the U.S. presence has helped stabilize the region, preparing the groundwork for the remarkable economic and democratic flowering of South Korea and Taiwan.

The U.S. is not going to pack up and go home.

If China wants to investigate this incident, that is entirely reasonable. A joint investigation is necessary and already should have begun to determine precisely what happened. But holding the crew isn't necessary to conduct such a joint investigation. If China wants to establish rules of engagement to prevent this kind of accident in the future, let's get on with it. That is in the interests of both nations.

China is an ancient and endlessly patient land, the U.S is young and impatient; these negotiations take time, counsel China watchers. Granted, but they shouldn't have taken this long. China is dead wrong to continue to hold the crew. The clock is ticking.