Don’t be so quick to judge Moehler and Paulino

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Felipe Paulino pitched against Brian Moehler on Wednesday night. Neither was pitching in Houston, although both could be back at Minute Maid Park soon.

Okay, enough with the riddles.

Paulino made his third start and looked sharp again, running into trouble in the sixth after a botched fly ball by Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee. He fell to 0-2 despite a 2.55 ERA.

Meanwhile, in south Texas, Brian Moehler made the second start of his rehab assignment, this time for AA Corpus Christi. His goal was to throw 100 pitches. He made it to 90 with 61 strikes and settled in after a rough first two innings.

Most people assume that Cecil Cooper and Ed Wade will choose one of the other for the rotation and the other will be out of a job in Houston.

Let’s don’t be too quick to jump to conclusions. Moehler and Paulino will get more looks in Houston and both should.

Many people have proclaimed that Moehler is done and should be DFA’d or traded. Ridiculous.

First, the Astros aren’t going to cut a guy loose in May and pay him a $2.3 million salary so another team can simply pick him up and pay him the league minimum.

Second, Houston will need him before it’s all said and done. And maybe sooner than later.

You didn’t ask, but Moehler can actually spend 30 days on a rehab assignment if the Astros feel he isn’t ready or if other pitchers are getting the job done.

And then there’s Paulino. Yes, he’s been impressive in three starts (and two before that in Round Rock). But it’s too early to tell if he can make a full major league season with just a couple of good pitches.

If Moehler returns to the rotation, perhaps Paulino and his mid-to-upper 90s fastball moves to the bullpen to setup Valverde or Hawkins. Remember when the last three innings were handled by Brad Lidge, Ocatvio Dotel and Billy Wagner? Reckon the Astros could put another 7-8-9 trio together that might include Chris Sampson and Paulino?

No the truth of the matter is this: The Astros will need both Moehler and Paulino…in Houston, especially if they can get major league outs.

Assuming that Moehler is ready after another rehab start — or even before — what’s your advice for Wade and Cooper? Moehler to the pen, or Paulino? Paulino to close in Valverde’s absence? Moehler and Paulino in the rotation and Russ Ortiz to the pen?

Enjoy the day off and leave your well-reasoned, insightful thoughts as usual.

Paulino is in until he’s out. He’s young – he’s the future and he’s not doing anything to be removed “or” to make a change to his status. They all work “to get” to this level – and – if they are successful….how can you ask for anything more. Simple right?

Put the best on the field – and never – remove it.

I hear all the “option move scenarios” – but to remove Paulino – you are messing with more than his “status” – you are messing with his head – his achievements – and his future value to this team.

Paulino is not the problem – he’s a solution.

Leave – “good enough” – alone.

Moehler – pull every “trick” in the book to leave him where he is. This would be my main area of concern to be addressed. But whatever you do – don’t move him one level – until he solves the present one. I love the Roach-man – but right now – he “looks” like the Pythagorean theorem on the hill in AA. No offense – but I have a math major.

Brain Seizure II – leave – “bad enough” – alone!!

Backe – our “next” long relief option. We’ve got two or three people to move for this slot. He’s “looking” like he’s progressing in the right direction. This is a long season – this team needs pitching.

Sampson – our “current” long relief option. Paulion II evaluation.

Wright – love this kid – for all of “his” reasons. What he did last year – and – what he is going to do next year. Potential that has proven. Nice!!

Blake wrote: “….then we have the group of youngsters at Lexington that are dominating (Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono and Villar) all those have sub 2.00 ERA’s and Dydalewicz is 0.00 through 3 starts (17 IP)….”

EXCELLENT!!!

I want to “see” (extra emphasis) this next “Don Drysdale” kid in MMP – before we ship him to the Dodgers….and the HOF!!

Hampton – what can I say? This guy has my heart. I want him to make it – ALL – the way back – as much as I wanted Lidge to do the same. Those two – are two of my favorites…probably because of the odds against them.

And in his last start – one pitch – killed an excellent outing….but that’s all it takes. Deflated was the best way to describe me – with the flight of that ball….that night….totally done!!

The Wandster – our current #1. He is doing “everything” you ask from your #1. Last year we talked of a Roy/Sheets one/two – we got it right now – and we had it all along. The mental has “always” been Wandy’s biggest hurdle – and I-Rod has been the lift to get him over and past it.

What a seemingly unseen move made in getting I-Rod – that has benefited this team in an entirely different area.

Kutts where due – Ed – take a bow.

Roy – our resident #1 – until proven otherwise. Yes we currently have “two” #1′s – just as we (me) hoped for with Sheets. Roy’s a bulldog….and you “never – ever” bet against that dog!! Too much history at meal-time….

===============

Chucky wrote” – “….Michael Bourn is not an everyday player, and Puma needs to be hitting cleanup…”

While I like your suggestion – and feel we may be entering the

twilight zone – - moving Berkman to clean-up – - it “is” an option I am willing to consider. The one-hitter by a no hitter has convinced me…something has got to give.

Shake it up Coop – what we got ain’t working – and hasn’t been all year.

And while I like Erstad – and we need him to be productive – we also need Bourn to be so – even more. I’m starting to look to the future in everything about this team….and that is Bourn. He has done nothing but what he’s “had” to do to stay on this club and in this line-up.

Geez…give the guy some slack! He pitched great last year, and you can’t judge his pitching this year on an injured knee! I’m wondering if it needs some scoping, since we aren’t in immediate need of him. Paulino has potential, and has been good, but that straight fastball scares me. He could be nice in the seventh for this year, if we don’t need starters. At least he wouldn’t have the pen blowing all his games if he were in it. Overall very pleased with our dilemma! Wandy for president!!

I see no sense sending Paulino down if he continues to pitch as well as he has thus far. I would prefer to see the veteran Rodriquez catch the young guy. Let Moehler pitch several more starts in the minors and find out where he really is with his game.

Question – if we play this veteran lineup w/o playing rooks…how do we work in the next group of players? If we were flush with GOOD veterans I might be more inclined to agree, but we’re apparently not that blessed.

I dont know about you guys, but I cant wait for Moehler to come back. Nothing like sitting back in a 27 dollar seat watching your starting pitcher get hammered for 5+ runs in the first inning of a game. It’s beautiful.

All joking aside, I really like what I see from Pauly. He has stated his case.

This lineup needs some serious adjusting. Volquez looked like Nolan Ryan last night.

Assuming everyone is healthy and Moehller and Backe are coming back, I am not opposed to trading Geary, Byrdak, or Hawkins for a minor leaguer or two. Moehller can take long relief in the pen and Fulchino goes to RR. there are lots of teams looking for middle relief, particularly lefties.

Someone asked about Keppinger and why he is not playing. It is obviously because he insists on hitting the ball the other way. Seriously, RH pitching he is better than Blum batting left (.261/.313 vs. .231/.296). Against lefties he is .355/.406 (BA/OBP) and virtually impossible to strike out.

[See your point on Kepp, Flash, but then again, Kepp's not an RBI guy, right, so that should be okay? CB]

Nice job Chip….I like the idea of setting up our next killer pen closing trio – but right now – Paulino is throwing like a starter. Let him quit first.

And gosh – - how do you – “demote” – a 2.55 ERA….

I can hear Coop now – “….Well Paulie….we were really looking for you to get that thing under two…..and keep it there….”

What a month of baseball….right? We got our starters pitching lights out….and “the batboy” – NOT – doing his job!!!

Don’t worry Chip….I’m on the case…have this one figured out before noon…tomorrow….

[Love the Cooper "comment" on Paulino. Based on previous comments (Pence), here's my rendition: "Son, we were counting on lots of strikeouts with that 95 mph gun you got. Unfortunately, you're just getting ground outs and pop ups and that's just not good enough! CB]

My advice to Wade: resist your urge to trade Paulino for nothing in return. Don’t answer your phone, it’s probably GMs offering to trade you a hotdog and a $10 dollar beer for Paulino, and I know how tempting that would be.

Pe Pe’s near triple-digit heater and slide-piece (for a strike) are bona-fide nasty today, so is his cutter — sneaky wicked against lefties and back-doors righties, effectively expanding the strike zone.

His change-up is a WIP, that’s a given. But it’s in the mail coming soon. He also knows how to take a little off his slider/curve, getting hitters to chase in the dirt when ahead in the count. Many, many weapons…

It’s important that he remain in the rotation and continue to develop. If cereal-filler scrubs like Moehler, Ortiz, and Backe actually return and have value, then that’s all gravy.

One more comment. I think anyone having confidence Moehler will be fine may also be too quick to judge. A late thirty something Moehler’s entire body of work suggests last season’s modest success as a starter was more an aberration as opposed to anything we can count on for ’09. His first two starts and now those 8 earned runs in his rehab start(thanks for the info Mr. Bill) may very well be the norm for him this year. That has to be considered before simply handing him back a spot in the rotation.

Brian Moehler had a career year last year as a starter. I was happy to see him get an opportunity and succeed, however if he needs to return to long relief then so be it. He has the mental makeup to handle the long relief position. As much as we all love Backe’s enthusiasm, it appears his better days are behind him, another long relief guy. Can you have two long relief guys, the 2009 Astros will need two. If we are 10 games out or more at the All Star break, we should seriously consider bringing up our young pitchers and allow them some big league experience. The Astros will not be a second half team this year, we are way too old…Tejeda, Ortiz and Pudge will be wearing down by then, Matsui will be on the injured list along with Hampton. Like it or not Mr Mc, this is a rebuild year.

Funny you think that he was sharp last night. IMO, his cutter was definitely flat and his heater was a bit up in the zone — likely a result of his front shoulder flying open a bit. But he’s VERY legit, even on off nights. And therein lies the point: HE NEEDS TO PITCH, AND PITCH AS A STARTER so that he can learn and grow.

This year will be Pe Pe’s breakout year. Overall the Stros will blow, and the long-in-the-tooth injury-waiting-to happen scrubs like Hampton, Ortiz and Moehler are rotation cereal filler, plain and simple.

It’s this fan’s strong opinion that Pe Pe should remain cemented as the #3 starter. If it turns out that Moehler and/or Backe return and have value, or if Hampton and Ortiz actually remain healthy, then we should gobble up whatever trade value they have before their stock plummets. (Personally, I think the jury is already out on Backe — he’s valueless and untradeable).

But no matter what, Pe Pe needs to remain on the roster as a starter this entire year, so that he can work out whatever kinks he has in his delivery, gain confidence and consistency, paving the way to his inevitable future stardom.

PS — he’s not a closer. He has too many plus pitches, and these weapons would be wasted if he pitched only 70-80 innings a year.

There really shouldnt even be a question here. We DESPERATELY NEED young starters and we have one! I think it would be idiotic to be move Paulino to the pen or AAA, hes young, has great stuff and is finally healthy! Moehler should go to the pen no questions asked! Hes old, and he has mediocre stuff! If he becomes a setup man then fine, but dont demote Paulino for Drayton s and Wades stupid decisions! We really jumped the gun signing Moehler last year and now they have to eat the contract, b/c he obviously overperformed last year.

Paulino should stay in the rotation the rest of the year not only for experience but for the FO to show that they have confidence in hin to be our next #2 possibly. KEEP PAULINO IN!!!!

Of course the FO makes idiotic decisions daily (Drew Sutton) so this will prbly fall on deaf ears.

Paulino should be left in the rotation until he does something to prove he doesn’t belong there. Give Moehler a couple of more starts in AAA and see how he looks. That also gives Ortiz a couple of more starts now to see if he will improve. Just don’t rush to make a decision which could be a bad one.

Kep needs to be playing more, as well as Tejada is hitting he did the same last year and then wore down, Coop needs to give him a day off a week to keep him fresh or we will see the same huge decline in the second half. If we could keep Tejada from wearing down we would have a much better chance at contending.

“Brian Moehler made the second start of his rehab assignment . . . he settled in after a rough first two innings.”

If you want to know what Chip means by ‘rough’, picture the Cockroach facing AA hitters and giving up 8 earned runs and 11 hits in 5 innings, while striking out 2. Hey, at least he didn’t walk anybody or give up any dingers!

As always, good column. I just want to point out Chris Sampson’s year so far. I remember in March when you mentioned you werent sure where Chris would work out and I wrote telling you that I disagreed with your comment.

Chris is off to a great start. Moehler hasnt been given a chance to have a healthy start. Chances are he’ll come around being that he’s a good pitcher…and I do envision Paulino working in the pen until he developes that splitter, which he will and become a dominant starter. But, Chris wont be the “lidge” in the Lidge, Dotel, Wagner monster, I think that job will go to Hawkins.

So. Hawkins, Paulino(eventually), and Valverde closing out games in September…but it’ll be too late for the Astros by then. What a waste!

[Yes, Chris is "working out" nicely. My only or at least main hesitation in the earlier entry was his injury status or not knowing if he had worked his way all the way back. I've always liked Sampson and am thrilled to see him succeeding. CB]

“I didn’t think he (Edinson Volquez) was all that sharp. It looked like he had some life to his fastball. It looked like we had some pitches to hit, but we just didn’t swing it very well. You have to give him some credit, but I didn’t think he was like a one-hit performance tonight.”

So he is on the record as disliking walks, disliking players in the middle of the lineup going the other way, quickly badmouthing young players who struggle (even if they are not really struggling) and now another nice little pearl.

This discussion didn’t even bring up the name of one Brandon Backe who just pitched four shutout innings at Round Rock on his first rehab start. What do we do if he continues to pitch well at RR? Are Moehler, Paulino, and Backe all on the 25 man roster? If so, who goes? Ortiz, Wright, Byrdak, or Brocail? Decisions…decisions!

Interesting having to be faced with all the things that a ML GM has to face isn’t it?!!?

Currently you have 5 starters with the big club (Oswalt, Wandy, Ortiz, Hampton, Paulino) – none of which are presently hurt and none of which are presently stinking up the hill – of these 5, only Paulino can go back to the minors without having to pass through waivers. Of course, if a guy does start to get odiferous, he can go on the DL and still work on his pitching, just not in real games – at any level unless you are ready to start their 30 day rehab clock!

Currently in the rehab (30-day clocks are ticking already) are starters B Moehler and B Backe – lets assume that none of the 5 on the current, active 25-man roster have back-to-back poor outings, that means when the 30-day assignment clocks wind down for Backe and Moehler, you either keep them on the DL (this is going to get you in hot water with the league and the players assoc as its a blatent skirting of the rules) or you have to activate them – which means a corresponding move (2 guys get sent down) – candidates being only Paulino, Wright, and Fulchino unless you want to try to pass someone through waivers {even Geary wouldn’t make it through waivers folks}. Now you have 7 starters on the big club roster and of course only 5 rotation slots (6-man rotations are not a good idea usually, mainly because you are one short from the pen and back to back 5 IP starts really limits your options on the third day). So how do you handle it? Paulino is of course a primary relief candidate because he only has two pitches which means the second time around against repeat opponents could be less than pretty – he is good though and because he has spent less time as a starter than Backe and Moehler – Moehler transitions to the long guy out of the pen – just because he’s done it before.

The issue appears solved except for one thing – if you transition Paulino back to a releif role – he isn’t going to be ready as a starter for probably three to four WEEKS if or when someone goes down with an injury.

The point – having an excess of starting pitching is always a good thing – but it present major issues with the roster if only ONE guy in that excess (7 guys in the Astros case) has options left!

Chip- What’s going with Arias? How come everytime the Astros have to call up a player, they pull up Fulchino? The guy hasn’t looked very good in the appearances I’ve seen.

Regarding the Astros dilemma, I think it’s in their interest to give Backe and Moehler first shot at the 25 man roster. Let’s let the old guys battle it out over the next couple of months and see how Paulino does in AAA.

I’m certainly not against giving Paulino another start, but I feel like he’s already proven to be competent enough for a spot on the roster (whether it be the rotation or pen). However, Paulino is pitching for the first time in a year and it might be in his (and the team’s) best interest if he can work a bit more at the AAA level.

Also, doesn’t Paulino still have a minor league option left? If so, that’s a luxury that Moehler and Backe don’t have and really negates the need to fret over making a move.

Whatever happens at this point, it’s a good problem for Wade to have. You can never have too much pitching!

Now, about those bats…

[Arias is primarily being used as a starter. Fulchino is a veteran and may be more suited to the up and down, back and forth scenario. This way, it allows for more continuity for Arias. CB]

This is exactly what needs to happen to this organization, even though we have a losing record our young pitching here in the majors and in the minors is responding. Paulino is pitching well up here, Norris is pitching great at AAA, James is pitching decently in AA, then we have the group of youngsters at Lexington that are dominating (Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono and Villar) all those have sub 2.00 ERA’s and Dydalewicz is 0.00 through 3 starts (17 IP). Keep Paulino in the rotation, put Moehler as long relief / spot starter, bring Norris up later this year and maybe James as well.

It is getting harder and harder to stand by the decisoins that Cecil Cooper makes these days. You are going for a sweep in a road ballpark and you bench Berkman and Pudge? One or the other but both? Does Ed Wade sign off on lineup cards are is that solely a Coop decision?

The Astros had one of the oldest rotations in the big leagues. Paulino is young and pitching well. In his 3 starts hes given the club a 2.55 ERA and given them 3 opportunities at wins. You don’t replace a young guy who is pitching so well with a 37 year old back end starter who in a good season is going to give you a 4.4-4.5 ERA. IMO, it will soon be a moot point because I don’t think Ortiz will last too much longer. His command is crap and hes been getting away with it so far but I don’t think that will keep up. So there you go…Backe or Moehler will be back.

Chip, another type of question. How come Keppinger is not playing more. His bat was a major plus for the first couple of weeks. Is Blum playing so well that Keppinger is a non factor? What other positions does he play?

It seems he has had the same effect as Loretta did, he comes in and lights it up, but then doesn’t get much playing time.

Just curious

[That's a good question, but it's primarily based, as Coop explains, on lefty-righty platoon. The Astros have not seen many lefties on the mound. May not make much sense, but that's the rationale. CB]

Last year Oswalt averaged more than 6 IP per start. I don’t remember Wandy, but Backe, Moehlar, and friends all averaged less than that. Basically, this team needs three reliable relievers it can count on every night.

I’d prefer Paulino get a few more starts, because he’s obviously performed well enough to deserve them. The balancing act is that he basically missed all last year, so running him out as a starter all season long may be detrimental to his long term career. If they don’t move him to the bullpen they need to closely monitor for fatigue.

The trouble is that pitching is always ahead of hitting at this time of the year and you can’t put too much stock in early results until they play out over a longer period. My personal (completely arbitrary) date to start truly paying attention to standings and “hot” or “cold” starts is June 1. That’s why I wouldn’t get too worked up about Paulino, Hampton or Ortiz’s successes until then. And on the flip side, I wouldn’t worry too much about Berkman starting to hit. He will.

We have to wait and see, though I think Paulino should get the starts over Moehler or be sent down to continue getting regularly scheduled starts. This is the year to see what our young guys can do.

Chip…at this point does it really matter who pitches? I mean unless you throw nothing but shutouts this team is not going to win very many games…period! I have been anAstro fan for over 20 years and I really cannot remember a worse hitting team with this much potential. I cannot believe how we make an average pitcher look great and a good pitcher look Cooperstown bound. Look Volquez has pretty good stuff, but what was his era coming into this game…7+. So somebody has been lighting him up and it sure has not been us since he made us look like chumps in his last start as well. Sooner or later if you want to be a good team you have to stop using the “we faced a good pitcher tonight” excuse and do like all of the other good teams and find a way to hit. Sorry but I had to get some things off my chest because I have had about all of this pathetic hitting team I can take. Personally Paulino needs to stay in the rotation unless he pitches his way out of it, and I’m not talking about 1 or 2 bad starts…give him a realistic chance because at this rate we will be playing for nothing but the 1# draft pick

Agree with Cap&Trade on Coop’s lineup last night, although it might be a moot point, as that guy could have mowed Boston down last night.

We are so starter-thin that I think we need to give Paulino a chance to develop there, not as a pen jockey. Who knows what will happen with Ortiz and Hampton this year? Maybe Jeremy Johnson or Chad Paronto can be called up to help cover the Valverde gap if Sampson and Hawk can be effective in the 7-8 slots?

I even think Sampson would make a decent fill-in closer. He’s not overpowering but he does induce ground balls, which we seem to be able to catch the past two years. Of course, he does have that hip tear…(sigh)

When Moehler is ready for the majors–and he should take the minor league time necessary to get ready–I would move Moehler into the bullpen, assuming that Paulino continues to pitch acceptably in the rotation. Moehler has experience in the bullpen; Paulino has none. Paulino has never been used in the bullpen in the minors. I am skeptical of Paulino as a reliever. In his starts so far, his command seems shaky until he settles in for a few batters. If Paulino needs to be removed from the rotation, he should go back to Round Rock so that he continues to develop as a starter.

Paulino is the only legitimate high upside starting arm in the upper level of the Astros’ farm system. So he should be given every chance to succeed as a starter.

[Actually, CJ, one third of Paulino's 96 minor league appearances have been in the bullpen, although in recent years he has been used primarily as a starter. CB]

With Brocail, Geary and Wright all stinking up the bullpen, and with Hawk and Valverde both having control/command issues as well, I say we would be crazy to send Paulino back down.

I am not sure what is wrong with Brocail, but averaging almost 2 BBs per inning and allowing an HR every other inning is not a major league quality level of performance. He has always flirted with disaster up in the zone, but so far this year he has totally lost control.

Poor Geoff Geary looks totally out of sync. His arm angle is off, resulting in his slinging the ball up to the plate. Virtually nothing he throws is crisp. I suspect there is an injury there somewhere.

Wesley Wright’s mechanics are a mess. He needs to do a lot of pitching to get back on track — and he is therefore my first choice to go to RR if Moeh or Brandon [or Arias] earn their way back to the big club.

As for Moeh, he was so embarrassingly bad in his two starts in Houston this year that he would have to do a whole lot better than he’s done so far in his rehab starts to warrant a return to what actually looks like a pretty decent rotation without him. I am not suggesting we release him, but I am suggesting that long relief [which the team desperately needs] looks to me like the only role he could possibly fill for us in 2009.

On a positive note, how about some shouts for the job Chris Sampson is doing! It is so good to see Chris throwing nails and putting up zeros.

Got to give Paulino at least another start, but if the bullpen needs help, he’s the most logical choice. And Ortiz has battled. Give him time to go deeper into games. If he stays healthy, he’ll be one of the best back of rotation guys in the league. I’d like to see a healthy Valverde in a couple of weeks and this rotation remain intact until someone provides a reason to be yanked out of it.

If anything, Paulino is learning what it’s like to pitch for the Astros. Your right Chip, He should have more than a 0-2 record to show for what he’s done.

I won’t pretend I’m a baseball guru like Copper, but I can’t understand his line-up choices at times. It seems to me if you have a rookie pitcher and you want him to succeed you put your eight best players on the field for him. I understand you need to give spot starts to your bench guys, but wouldn’t it be better to do it one player at a time and with your proven starters.

Paulino needs to be pitching in the rotation as long as he can this year. Not only is he part of the future of the Astros but aside from Wandy the only Astro that is pretty much on fire everytime he picks up the ball.