THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,023,150 Votes

ALP 7,976,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

6.358% or

953,700 voters.

This week sees a major shiftback to the left. Pretty well back to where we were in the middle of May. A lead of nearly a million voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

The Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I wonder what you would call a swing of over 400,000 votes in a single week? All of a sudden all the budget goodness (haha), the embarrassed Bill Shorten and the terrible terror we are all told to be so terrified of have disappeared. All we are left with is a speaker wearing a helicopter cap. Wokka Wokka Wokka Wokka.

Such a pity about the $80,000,000 of taxpayers money being wasted spent on that fizzog of a Royal Commission!

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Regular readers of the Archive will have noticed that my postings have dropped off in number in the past few weeks. Especially those postings with a lighter side. Without noticing it, I have been developing an anger.

Now I have realised the cause of my anger.

No one cares about excellence. Not anymore.

We become experts ourselves by watching the fifteen second film clip on the six o’clock news.

Our leaders only tell us what will gain them an extra vote or two. Our experts must have served an apprenticeship in professional sport. Our entertainers have learned all we need to know.

We no longer ask ourselves what we can do for our country, rather we ask that we are not caught as we fiddle our books and take from those least able to give.

We take no notice as all our leaders choose to incarcerate the helpless who have come looking for help.

Our children are being taught to accept whatever they are told and to never think for themselves.

As we rush headlong into the consequences of global warming, we oscillate between denying it will happen to ignoring the obvious.

I am the only one who sees the approaching train wreck. Am I the voice of one crying in the wilderness?