Five takeaways from GOP debate on eve of New Hampshire primary

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio fed into the criticism that he is an overly-scripted candidate by awkwardly repeating himself during one of the worst performances of his campaign, while former Florida governor Jeb Bush was more assertive in a critical debate for him Saturday night on the eve of the New Hampshire primary.

Meanwhile businessman Donald Trump struggled in his return to the debate stage, and the two sitting governors competing with Bush and Rubio to rally center-right Republicans both had strong nights.

Here are five takeaways from the debate:

JEB STEPS UP

Facing one of the most important tests of his political career, Bush realized he had to stand out and was forceful all night. He got plenty of speaking time, was polished right through to his closing statement and even interjected himself three times when a question wasn’t directed at him, including to attack Trump over his defense of using eminent domain to seize private property. It may have been the first time Bush got the better of Trump on the debate stage. Having finished a disappointing sixth in the Iowa caucuses and with strong competition from other establishment-friendly candidates, Bush is under intense pressure to do well. He passed the test Saturday, but whether it was with a high enough grade to move the needle in New Hampshire remains to be seen. And unfortunately for Bush, he wasn’t the only establishment Republican to have a good night.

RUBIO UNDER FIRE

The big story of the New Hampshire primary is the contest to see which of the candidates with the widest general election appeal — Bush, Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich — will consolidate the support of establishment Republicans. With the strongest poll numbers and a good performance in Iowa, Rubio is the front-runner among the four and was guaranteed to be under fire Saturday. He should have been prepared. He wasn’t. For the first time, Rubio really struggled at a debate. Much of that was due to Christie’s relentlessness. The governor's assertion in recent days that Rubio only recites canned talking points seemed to rattle the senator, who played right into the criticism by repeating a scripted line about President Obama multiple times in a painful sequence that is likely to be replayed frequently on television news programs. Even on a bad night Rubio is still a strong debate presence, but being tagged as a robotic performer could come back to haunt him in an election where voters are rallying around candidates who seem more authentic.

CLOSE COMPETITION

It was a good night for governors. Not only did Bush perform well but so did Christie and Kasich, leaving the establishment lane of the Republican nomination battle very much open. Christie performed like a man fighting for his political life, working criticism of Rubio into nearly every question asked of him. Kasich was the most overt in appealing to moderates, frequently touting himself as a “practical” problem solver on issues such as immigration and balancing the budget. Both Christie and Kasich got plenty of time to talk and used it well. The contest to carry the GOP establishment banner after New Hampshire looks to remain a dogfight.

TRUMP RETURNS

Following a humbling second place finish in Iowa that came after he skipped the last debate before the caucuses, Trump was back at the podium. But he may wish he’d kept away from the debate stage longer. Never the greatest debater, Trump turned in his worst performance to date as he rambled through some cringe-worthy answers to questions on health care and eminent domain. Trump ended his response to a question on providing affordable health care to people by saying “we’re going to take care of people” without offering any specifics. And his over-the-top defense of eminent domain, an issue on which he is vulnerable because he used it to help his businesses, drew boos from the crowd. Bush slammed Trump on the issue and refused to let the bombastic businessman talk over him. Trump was later booed for going after U.S. Ted Cruz before his closing statement. The billionaire is under more pressure after losing in Iowa to Cruz. His supporters should be happy he has a big lead in the New Hampshire polls because his debate performance seems unlikely to help.

THREE-WAY RACE

With Cruz winning Iowa and Trump likely to win New Hampshire, their campaigns already are looking ahead to South Carolina's Feb. 20 primary and beyond. They did not have much to gain from going on the offensive and largely held their fire all night. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson remains in the race but he was a non-factor in the debate and his chances of catching fire again seem remote. An odd moment at the beginning of the debate when Carson did not hear his name called and delayed coming on stage seems symbolic of the wayward state of his campaign. The big question is how quickly this gets down to a three-way race between Cruz, Trump and an establishment Republican. It's a question the debate couldn't answer. New Hampshire voters will start that process Tuesday.

Last modified: February 7, 2016
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