The so-called generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they plan to support rather than about specific candidates, gives the Democrats a six-point advantage, down from 10 at the start of 2018.

However, New Yorkers are definitely not warming to Trump. The last three polls based on telephone surveys—Siena, Quinnipiac and Marist—show the president's approval rating here at a dismal 30%. The numbers are unchanged from each organizations' first survey of the year. Trump does better in internet polls, as seen in Morning Consult's latest take on New York. Even in this poll, Trump's approval rating is down 12 percentage points from when he took office.

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The next set of surveys will show whether there is any hope for Republicans running in the midst of still-motivated and angry anti-Trump voters in New York.