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True, but I have always been a firm believer that Shkanon isn't true though I can't rule it out either. Jessica being the other Battler is interesting and could fit really well, though it would completely ruin my dream of seeing Jessica and Battler fall for each other in the end.

The part where they are already blood relatives might have put the kaibosh on that dream.

Well, unless Natsuhi stole Jessica from some orphanage or something.

Nope cousins can marry in Japan. See Elfen Leid.

But yeah Jessica being his half sister would prevent that, but it would also bring about an awesome fist fight ending hopfully. And even if she is born from Asumu she's probably as clueless as Battler. Not to mention Japan probably wouldn't care whether it's incest or not when they ship.

I proclaim that Erika Furudo is the detective.It's entirely possible that this does not imply "Erika=Detective" but "Detective=Erika!" In other words, whatever piece Bernkastel chooses to be her detective for that game gains the title "Erika!" In other words, if Bernkastel had chosen Eva, for example, as the detective, then any time that "Erika" was referred to in red, it would refer to Eva! Because "Erika" would be the detective's title, if a new character was chosen by Bernkastel in the Sixth Game, a different character would be able to be called "Erika!" Additionally, what if Bernkastel can switch what piece she controls? Then multiple characters would be able to be referred to as "Erika" even during the course of one game!

(Yes, this causes a contradiction regarding the sealed room in Episode 6, due to the people being sealed inside. But still, it's worth considering, especially since the red is very intriguing in its possible implications)

Well, this is sort of denied in Episode 5 by Lambdadelta when Erika Furudo is introduced:

Furudo Erika had no influence on Beato's games before now. She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.

Now, it is possible that multiple people could take the title of Furudo Erika (like was proven with Kinzo), however...

Say that Eva is designated as "Furudo Erika" at a certain part, as you say.
Thus, it would be that "Ushiromiya Eva" had no influence on Beato's games before now.

This is a contradiction, so it's safe to assume that Furudo Erika IS a brand new piece and is not simply an alias for another character, even if it changes.

Edit: Plus, it's said in red that the arrival of Erika increases the number of people on the island by one.

Last edited by DaBackpack; 2010-05-10 at 17:04.
Reason: Me being stupid

The maximum possible number of people on the island by one. That does not mean the number actually increased.

And the fact that they actually bother to mention it makes it even more unlikely that it did, in my opinion. Which either means we need to delete someone else from the island during Episode 5, or Erika doesn't exist as a countable piece.

The part where they are already blood relatives might have put the kaibosh on that dream.

Well, unless Natsuhi stole Jessica from some orphanage or something.

Except she says in EP 5 she gave birth to Jessica a year after the adopted child got thrown off the cliff. Unless you think she imagined pushing out a baby from her body, which isn't exactly easy to do considering the horrible pain it usually is. Considering her body is a bit weaker (constant headaches, among other things, point to a weaker immune system) I doubt Natsuhi would imagine the pain of childbirth.

The maximum possible number of people on the island by one. That does not mean the number actually increased.

Hah, I did not consider that

Still, it's rather unlikely (albeit possible, I guess) that Erika is just another name for an existing character.

Even considering the Kinzo dilemma in Episode 4.

Proof:

If Eva is the "detective" as deemed by Bernkastel (it could be any character, I'm using Eva as an example), then any statement regarding Furudo Erika would be referencing Eva.

After all,

Furudo Erika is the detective.
This implies that there is a single detective, so multiple people being detectives is ruled out.

Eva is the detective.

Since there is a single detective on the island, then...

Eva is Erika Furudo.

Now, if the role of "detective" is passed around, then this statement becomes valid:

Any character that takes the role of detective is known as Erika Furudo. After all, as mentioned in Episode 4, the head of the family is known as Kinzo, but this is not necessarily the Ushiromiya Kinzo we are familiar with.

Okay, that's hunky-dory until we get to this statement:

Furudo Erika had no influence on Beato's games before now. She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.

Now, if the statement directly above is true and the statement in blue is true, then this has to be true:

Since the role of detective is passed around amongst the EXISTING family members, then there is actually NO detective in Episodes 1 through 4. Seeing as the person named Furudo Erika can be applied to any character, as well as the fact that Erika Furudo does not exist in any of the previous games, then the Episodes 1-4 do not have anyone as the detective.

So, Episodes 1-4 are technically not "fair-play" mysteries, so the rules of the Decalogue do not necessarily apply to them.

That makes everything complicated and I'm sure it creates contradictions.

It's much easier for us to conclude this:

Erika is legitimately stranded after a cruise trip and is indeed the 18th person on Rokkenjima.

I suspect she may have imagined the baby and servant falling off the cliff entirely, though. No witnesses, no other mentions, numerous mentions of 'a servant falling off the stairs because of speaking ill of Beatrice and retiring', but no indication it's Natsuhi's story that is actually true, no clear reason to suspect any character of being That Baby, clear similarities to Rosa's story which is supposed to have happened at the same time yet according to Natsuhi Rosa was mysteriously away...

That leaves the question of what actually happened, but my guess is that neither of the three stories is completely true.

__________________

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
— Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

There is a theory that Erika is simply an "attitude" or collection of ideas and emotions (well, maybe less of the latter ) shared by some of the family members. There are a lot of instances where it seems like Erika is just a boilerplate for clarifying ideas from other people.

I don't know what I think about Erika being something so ridiculously vague, though.

I like how you bring up Eva, though, because if Erika has a fixed personality she's a very good candidate, what with the detective work with the receipt and the Jessica-existence-hating.

There is a theory that Erika is simply an "attitude" or collection of ideas and emotions (well, maybe less of the latter ) shared by some of the family members. There are a lot of instances where it seems like Erika is just a boilerplate for clarifying ideas from other people.

I don't know what I think about Erika being something so ridiculously vague, though.

I like how you bring up Eva, though, because if Erika has a fixed personality she's a very good candidate, what with the detective work with the receipt and the Jessica-existence-hating.

I think I'd cry if it turns out that Eva had another personality.

Oy, she's quite the schizophrenic, huh. Oh well, I'll pull a Battler for now and say "there's not enough information"

Anyway, is there a "database" on the website for common theories?
I think it may help if all the popular and valid (basically, non-disproved) theories were kept in one place simply due to the lack of conclusive evidence for ANY of them there is.

I suspect she may have imagined the baby and servant falling off the cliff entirely, though. No witnesses, no other mentions, numerous mentions of 'a servant falling off the stairs because of speaking ill of Beatrice and retiring', but no indication it's Natsuhi's story that is actually true, no clear reason to suspect any character of being That Baby, clear similarities to Rosa's story which is supposed to have happened at the same time yet according to Natsuhi Rosa was mysteriously away...

That leaves the question of what actually happened, but my guess is that neither of the three stories is completely true.

Imagining throwing something off a cliff or anything for that matter, compared to a huge amount of pain via pushing something out of you is different. The former doesn't involve any physical pain for you, while the latter...well I can't say from personal experience, but I'm pretty positive it hurts a lot.

Well the way I figure it, convoluted though it may be, is that its a triple switch. Natsuhi didn't imagine or hallucinate going through childbirth, its just that it was not Jessica that she gave birth to. If you look at Battler and Jessica having similar ages you can picture it like everyone got bumped up on the family register. Battler, the son of Kyrie who is not a member of the family and of Rudolf, gets bumped up to being Asumu's son as she is actually married to Rudolf. Jessica, could potentially be the child of Rudolf and Asumu and is bumped up to being the child of Natsuhi and Krauss, as Natsuhi mentions numerous times about their difficulty conceiving. Finally the child of Krauss and Natsuhi is the stillbirth and is played off as Kyrie's child. Rudolf keeps his kid from Kyrie with his wife. Jessica gets sent to Krauss so as to be his child and the eventual wife to the new head of the family. While Natsuhi's stillborn gets passed down to Kyrie so as not to put shame on the family for Rudolf getting two women pregnant at the same time, one of which he is not married to.

While I completely don't like this, it just creates a way for Natsuhi to have gone through childbirth but for Jessica to not be her daughter.

Also I agree that about Rosa and Natushi when it comes to their "Off the cliff" stories, they each contain some truth but only pieces of it.

We know there are two people who have, or are very close to being capable of solving it: Eva and Rosa.

Erika's behavior in ep5 is an almost perfect match for Eva's behavior in ep3 with respect to solving the epitaph. They both focus on the wordplay, and they both go looking for an atlas.

There is no mention in red of Eva's location at any time. If we assume someone (not necessarily Eva, but "someone") is Erika other than Erika Furudo herself, that person is free to return to the guesthouse since the red does not trap "Erika" in the dining room. That said, if someone is not Erika, escaping the mansion before the game suggests it becomes highly suspect.

EDIT: To clarify, the reason I think the "Erika doesn't exist" thing is worth considering - ludicrous as it sounds, on a Shkanon tier - is that, if true, it could in fact be the "key." We know from ep1 that Beatrice may not be "one single woman." If we can determine the rules that make someone "Beatrice" in ep1-4, we can guess who was committing the murders (or not committing them). It may be a different person each time, but there should be identifiable traits which allow Meta-Beatrice to self-identify her piece with that person and "cover" for them.

Likewise, if certain actions make a person "Erika," then figuring out the rules that make someone "Erika" should give us some hint as to whose perspectives are reliable in Chiru. We already know Erika herself is remarkably meta, and her piece never actually personally narrates much. So she herself may be of no use. On the other hand, if she is one or more people, and there are certain traits that associate a person with her, she becomes a useful tool that is instructive in figuring out who "Beatrice" is at any given time.

This would also explain Eva-Beatrice: The rules to become "Beatrice" were fulfilled by a different party, creating a different Beatrice.

Well the way I figure it, convoluted though it may be, is that its a triple switch. Natsuhi didn't imagine or hallucinate going through childbirth, its just that it was not Jessica that she gave birth to. If you look at Battler and Jessica having similar ages you can picture it like everyone got bumped up on the family register. Battler, the son of Kyrie who is not a member of the family and of Rudolf, gets bumped up to being Asumu's son as she is actually married to Rudolf. Jessica, could potentially be the child of Rudolf and Asumu and is bumped up to being the child of Natsuhi and Krauss, as Natsuhi mentions numerous times about their difficulty conceiving. Finally the child of Krauss and Natsuhi is the stillbirth and is played off as Kyrie's child. Rudolf keeps his kid from Kyrie with his wife. Jessica gets sent to Krauss so as to be his child and the eventual wife to the new head of the family. While Natsuhi's stillborn gets passed down to Kyrie so as not to put shame on the family for Rudolf getting two women pregnant at the same time, one of which he is not married to.

While I completely don't like this, it just creates a way for Natsuhi to have gone through childbirth but for Jessica to not be her daughter.

Also I agree that about Rosa and Natushi when it comes to their "Off the cliff" stories, they each contain some truth but only pieces of it.

The only way this works is if they all gave birth on the exact same day in the same hospital. Kyrie and Asumu are easier to imagine for that scenario, because Rudolf impregnated them not too far apart, but we don't know exactly when Natsuhi was going to give birth. This would mean that Jessica was also born June 15th, which she wasn't (otherwise she would remark that she was in EP 3, along with Battler).

The only way this works is if they all gave birth on the exact same day in the same hospital. Kyrie and Asumu are easier to imagine for that scenario, because Rudolf impregnated them not too far apart, but we don't know exactly when Natsuhi was going to give birth. This would mean that Jessica was also born June 15th, which she wasn't (otherwise she would remark that she was in EP 3, along with Battler).

True enough, though it wouldn't have to be the same day, they could probably have a day's latitude as labor can be a long or short process given the individual. I do see your point though.