Red Sox had no insurance for their stockpile of starting pitching

Monday

Oct 17, 2011 at 12:01 AM

In some ways, Theo Epstein should never have been caught this short-handed.

In some ways, Theo Epstein should never have been caught thisshort-handed.

No one knows better than Epstein and manager Terry Francona howimportant a vast accumulation of quality starting pitching can be.The ill-advised trade of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena five yearsago still stings, and it was just two years ago that they dredgedup retired righty Paul Byrd to make six key starts down thestretch.

"The best way to get your season derailed is to not have enoughpitching," Francona said during spring training. "We're trying asmuch as we can to cover all the bases."

Even Epstein and his staff still are trolling for startingpitching. A Boston Herald report suggested Thursday that the RedSox tried to acquire Chris Capuano from the Mets, even though hewould not have been eligible for the postseason roster, becausejust one start would have made an enormous difference.

In some ways, however, there's not much more Epstein could havedone to prepare for the disaster that has befallen his startingrotation.

Even with their starting rotation seemingly set - there was talkin spring training about whether Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, ClayBuchholz, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka could make up the bestrotation the franchise had ever had - the Red Sox had Tim Wakefieldin their bullpen, ready to go.

They had stashed away lottery-ticket signing Andrew Miller to goalong with youngsters Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland at Triple-APawtucket. When Kevin Millwood opted out of his minor-leaguecontract with the Yankees, the Red Sox signed him and stashed himaway, too.

Even in late June, after Matsuzaka had undergone Tommy Johnsurgery, it looked like the Red Sox had more than enough pitchingto stay afloat.

"That's the one thing Theo and I talk about in the winter morethan anything," Francona said then. "We talk about it a lot, havingenough pitching to where it can't derail your season. That's not aneasy thing to do, but I think Theo and those guys have done areally good job - Aceves, Wake, we've got Doubront. We should beOK."

The degree to which the Red Sox rotation is now in shamblescan't be underestimated. Wakefield didn't begin the season in therotation, but he's made more starts than Buchholz and Matsuzakacombined. Lackey has been the worst pitcher in the American League- and might well be the worst starting pitcher, for a singleseason, in Red Sox history.

For the Yankees to have befallen the same misfortune as the RedSox, they'd have had to lose Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia toinjury while seeing A.J. Burnett pitch even worse than he alreadyhas. For the surging Rays to have befallen the same misfortune,they'd have had to lose Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Niemann toinjury while seeing Wade Davis pitch like the worst pitcher in theAmerican League.

(Imagine the criticism Tampa Bay general manager Andrew Friedmanwould now be facing for trading away Matt Garza had he lost two- orthree-fifths of his starting rotation to injury orineffectiveness.)

Maybe Epstein should have accumulated even more pitching than hedid. But pitching isn't a quantity to be bought in bulk at Sam'sClub. Boston just wasn't an appealing landing spot for anyfree-agent pitcher with major-league aspirations.

More than 30 starting pitchers hit the free-agent market lastwinter. A handful - Cliff Lee, of course, being the highlight -signed the type of big-ticket deals the Red Sox weren't going tooffer when they already had five starters in place. A handful ofothers either retired or have not been healthy to pitch this season- among them Justin Duchscherer, Mike Hampton, Ben Sheets andBrandon Webb.

Of the remaining free-agent arms, most found guaranteedmajor-league employment somewhere. Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis havepitched every fifth day for the Kansas City Royals. Aaron Haranghas pitched every fifth day for the San Diego Padres. Brad Pennyhas pitched every fifth day for the Detroit Tigers. Javier Vazquezhas pitched every fifth day for the Florida Marlins.

Freddy Garcia signed a minor-league contract with the Yankees,but he had an opt-out clause in his contract that would haveallowed him to depart if he did not start the season on themajor-league roster. The Red Sox never would have had room forGarcia on their Opening Day roster.

No pitcher who could get guaranteed major-league employment -and guaranteed major-league money - would have agreed to a dealthat would have landed them at Triple-A Pawtucket for half theseason or more, not with the Red Sox rotation as loaded as itlooked in spring training.

The only reason Miller agreed to pass up a major-league dealelsewhere for a minor-league deal with the Red Sox was because hewas taking a long-term perspective on his foundering career. Giventhe way he has struggled this season, it's fair to wonder whetherhe and the Red Sox should have left him there.

That left Epstein with precious few options on the free-agentpitching market. The best option might have been Rodrigo Lopez, whosigned a minor-league deal with Atlanta in January without amajor-league spot even close to given. The Braves eventually dealtLopez to the Chicago Cubs in late May, for whom he has a 4.71 ERAin 91 2/3 innings pitched.

And in the middle of the season? Hiroki Kuroda wasn't an option.Ubaldo Jimenez would have been costly - and his ERA is a middling4.62 in 10 starts for Cleveland since July 31.

The failed trade for Rich Harden looks like a misstep, but, thenagain, Harden has a 5.70 ERA in his nine starts since the dealfailed to go through.

Millwood, too, might look good in the Red Sox rotation had henot opted out of his contract. But he also gave up six earned runsin 3 1/3 innings to the light-hitting San Diego Padres on Monday,and his ERA in eight starts with the Colorado Rockies is 4.56 -including 6.95 in four starts at Coors Field.

With the benefit of hindsight, Epstein and Francona look - onceagain - woefully underprepared in the pitching department. Butsometimes it really is bad luck - and sometimes there's only somuch even a team with a $160-million payroll can be expected todo.

bmacpherson@providencejournal.com

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.