Germany in 2007

Foreign Affairs

The international scene was dominated in 2007 by Germany’s presidency of the European Union in the first half of the year and the G-8 summit held in Heiligendamm in early June. The agenda for the EU presidency was focused on climate change as well as the future of Europe and the EU after the defeat of the constitutional treaty. Generally, Germany’s presidency, which ended in June, was considered a success. At the end of the German presidency, surveys recorded the highest level of trust in years toward the EU, around 60%. Some problems remained concerning Polish disagreement in regard to voting rights and the general anti-German sentiment perceived to be displayed in Poland, but the presidency closed with an agreement on a new reform treaty and on climate-change goals within the EU. The reform treaty differed from the constitutional treaty, which had been defeated in 2005, in that it presented a simplified and slimmed-down reform proposal for the EU.

The G-8 summit was also dominated by the topic of climate change. In respect to cutting carbon dioxide emissions, the summit did not produce clear goals for the post-Kyoto Protocol era, but it did achieve a tentative agreement on cutting carbon dioxide emissions in half by 2050. This was not considered an unmitigated success domestically, and there was significant internal unrest due to a lack of definite targets. But the summit was considered a success in that the U.S. and some less-developed countries (LDCs) agreed to consider climate change a threat. The “Heiligendamm Process,” an institutionalization of the dialogue between the G-8 members and the five largest emerging economies, came out of the meeting by building a bridge between developed countries and LDCs through which the problem of climate change, and possibly other areas of conflict, could be addressed. Most notable was the close working relationship between Germany and the U.K. in regard to both the G-8 summit and the EU reform treaty, which was considered a possible blueprint for future interactions between the two countries.

A domestic climate summit in Berlin, which brought together politicians as well as industry leaders, was also not totally successful. Energy security in Germany was very much bound up with the topic of nuclear energy. The idea of potentially having to increase the use of nuclear energy, or even build a new nuclear energy reactor, seemed inconceivable to many Germans—even though this might be the only way to reach the ambitious emission goals (a reduction of 40% by 2020, relative to 1990). Nevertheless, renewable energy was the route that Germany was attempting to take, against the recommendations of industry. Chancellor Merkel was confident that the level of cuts in carbon dioxide emissions could also be achieved without increased or sustained use of nuclear energy. At the same time, there were voices in the parliament demanding less-stringent energy requirements for the building industry in order to ensure German competitiveness.

The Economy

The concentration on environmental concerns also influenced the economy, with the renewable-energy sector showing the largest upswing. For the first time in years, the overall economy posted a definite positive trend, despite the increase in the VAT at the beginning of the year. Unemployment decreased to some 3.5 million (with a slight cyclical increase of unemployment in the summer). Germany not only met the predicted 2% growth rate but also exceeded it significantly. In the early part of 2007, growth stood at 3.1%. It fell slightly to 2.4% midyear, partly because of the mortgage crisis in the U.S., but rose again thereafter, with a predicted average of 2.8% for the year.

Unlike people in many other developed countries, most Germans traditionally used great caution in their financial dealings, and any form of insecurity could lead to low spending by individuals, often increasing economic weakness. Thus, the perceived upward economic trend in 2007 triggered a higher rate of spending, which in turn bolstered the positive trend. Though the 3% VAT increase had led economists to surmise that 2007 would be a year of low spending and halted economic growth, by year’s end, analysts predicted that strong growth would enable Germany to move its general government deficit into surplus in the near future. Despite this assessment, other analysts were worried that the economic uplift was not the result of the reforms implemented in the past few years but rather a cyclical improvement. The economic program passed by the parliament for the second half of 2007 stressed public spending rather than cutting public debt.

The mortgage crisis in the U.S. influenced the German economy surprisingly little, aside from a stock market slowdown at the beginning of August, which was resolved within a few weeks. The threatened insolvency of two affected financial institutions was avoided through government intervention, however, which was potentially an example of the current political climate regarding intervention into markets if financial stability was threatened. The future outlook for industries connected with producing energy-saving technologies was especially good after the government decided on further subventions in these areas in August.

Demographically, Germany was in trouble; the population growth rate in 2007 was estimated at –0.033%. As Germans had fewer children, the resulting decrease in the number of taxpayers—along with the increasing number of retirees—was likely to cause economic problems. Moreover, owing to movement of the population from the less prosperous areas into the more prosperous ones and the low economic activity among German women, many services provided by the state, such as local schools, were threatened.

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