Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a relative newcomer in the race for the 2012
Republican presidential nomination, is surging and now trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney 25 - 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has 12 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. No
other contender is over 6 percent.

This compares to a June 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack)
University, showing Romney with 25 percent, Palin with 15 percent and Bachmann with 6
percent, sixth in a field of 10 candidates in the survey.

President Barack Obama tops all leading GOP White House hopefuls, hitting the all-
important 50-percent mark against every candidate but Romney:

47 - 41 percent over Romney, unchanged from June 8;

50 - 38 percent over Bachmann, who was not matched against Obama June 8;

53 - 34 percent over Sarah Palin, compared to 53 - 36 percent June 8;

50 - 37 percent over Perry, who was not matched against Obama June 8.

"Gov. Mitt Romney remains ahead of the GOP presidential pack as U.S. Rep. Michele
Bachmann has zoomed into second place," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With almost a dozen candidates and most of them not
very well known, even to GOP activists, Gov. Romney's lead remains. Gov. Rick Perry, who is
still a maybe candidate, breaks into double-digits and runs fourth, an indication that he could be
a serious contender should he run."

"The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like
Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power? Perhaps more than any of the
other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether Governors Palin or Perry
get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Rounding out the possible Republican presidential field are entrepreneur Herman Cain at
6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5
percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick
Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan each
at 1 percent or less.

If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with
16 percent and Palin with 13 percent.

If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with
Perry remaining at 10 percent.

"This would indicate that Romney and Bachmann would benefit most if Perry or Palin do
not run," said Brown.

In the November matchups, Obama's margin over the Republican hopefuls stems from his
huge margins among women voters that swamp the GOP candidates' small edge with men. For
instance, matched against Romney, the president carries women 50 - 39 percent, but loses men
by only 45 - 44 percent.

The same dynamic is at work when voters are asked if the president deserves a second
term. While the overall number is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, women think he deserves a
second term 50 - 43 percent, while men think he does not by 51 - 43 percent.

"The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger
perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008," Brown said.

From July 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,311 registered voters with a margin
of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The
Republican primary included 913 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
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