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The Blame the Kids Game Continues

Soon to be former Mariners manager Eric Wedge continued to lay groundwork yesterday for the spin he’s going to try and sell over the next 10 days. And, naturally, as with pretty much every veteran infatuated manager in charge of a losing team, he’s going to blame the failures of the team on the fact that they had so many young players. Per Ryan Divish:

“So many things have happened here when you talk about fundamentals,” Wedge said. “Whether it be the kids coming up quick a couple years ago, or last year or even this year, those are things you are going to have to live with – some of those mistakes until they figure it out. If you don’t have enough time in the minor leagues, then you have to finish them off up here.”

If it seems like this is happening every year, it’s because it has.

“We’ve got 8 or 9 players that made their major league debut this year,” Wedge said. “That’s quite a bit. And we have like 30 some in three years. When you are breaking in that many young players, you are going to have young mistakes. We’ve got 20 some players with less than years experience coming into this season. That’s a big number. So you have to be patient and work through. It’s a rebuild. It’s what it was when I got here.”

Wedge is right in the fact that the Mariners have used a lot of young players during his three years at the helm. In fact, no team has given more plate appearances to players 25 and under over the last three years. So, vindication, right? Wedge correctly noted that the team has gone young during his tenure, and at least on the position player side of things — the pitchers have skewed a bit older — the data supports his assertion. Well, at least the part about the quantity of young players and the amount of playing time they’ve gotten.

The inference is that there’s causation here. These comments are very clearly an attempted explanation for why the team has been bad while he’s been in charge. The last two sentences basically sum it up. Wedge is saying that he was hired to build a young club, and because of that job, the losses should have been expected, since those young players just weren’t experienced enough to help the team win yet.

Here’s the problem, though. The 25-and-unders have accounted for 43% of the Mariners total plate appearances during the last three years, more than anyone else in baseball, but they’ve also accounted for 66% of the total WAR by position players, also the highest proportion in the game. And yes, if you’re doing some basic subtraction from the numbers in that last sentence, that means that the 26+ players accounted for just 1/3 of the total position player WAR despite garnering almost 3/5 of the plate appearances.

Here are the team totals for both 25-and-unders and 26+, 2011 to 2013. Note where the Mariners rank in each.

First, the young inexperienced kids.

#

Team

PA

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Fld + Pos

BsR

WAR

1

Angels

3753

.276

.344

.463

.349

124

44.8

28.4

31.8

2

Braves

5556

.262

.334

.428

.332

110

3.6

11.2

26.8

3

Giants

4224

.278

.341

.433

.335

116

45.3

-9.9

26.3

4

D’backs

5408

.272

.348

.439

.341

110

-8.2

18.8

25.9

5

Pirates

6400

.261

.327

.411

.323

105

-19.3

8.9

23.9

6

Nationals

5295

.259

.322

.412

.321

101

35.3

0.0

22.0

7

Indians

5076

.258

.323

.406

.319

103

-11.2

10.5

19.1

8

Royals

6606

.271

.319

.405

.315

95

-17.4

-0.9

17.0

9

Padres

4915

.246

.315

.371

.302

95

-2.2

22.8

15.3

10

Tigers

3116

.270

.342

.422

.335

108

14.0

-2.1

15.1

11

Rays

2056

.248

.326

.419

.326

109

27.3

10.9

13.2

12

Mariners

7590

.240

.302

.383

.301

92

-49.5

-0.4

13.1

13

Marlins

5611

.251

.323

.415

.322

101

-50.3

-8.7

12.8

14

Cubs

5191

.258

.310

.389

.306

87

37.8

-3.1

12.7

15

Rockies

4492

.273

.321

.437

.328

92

-1.1

12.9

11.7

16

Orioles

2827

.261

.308

.413

.315

94

32.1

3.4

11.4

17

Brewers

2513

.267

.315

.416

.320

99

25.8

4.3

11.2

18

Rangers

3805

.264

.324

.364

.306

84

21.7

26.7

11.1

19

Mets

4559

.250

.314

.372

.302

91

4.7

-7.3

10.1

20

Reds

2686

.249

.316

.431

.322

100

-6.2

-4.0

7.8

21

Athletics

3028

.235

.309

.382

.304

92

-12.6

3.3

6.5

22

Blue Jays

4301

.242

.296

.406

.306

88

-22.4

0.5

6.4

23

Phillies

1930

.265

.318

.422

.321

101

-20.7

-1.0

4.3

24

Dodgers

1771

.259

.319

.371

.304

94

-12.1

6.4

3.9

25

Cardinals

2498

.241

.307

.356

.291

83

-1.5

2.2

3.2

26

Astros

6440

.256

.309

.373

.300

87

-85.0

-3.3

2.5

27

White Sox

3921

.243

.295

.371

.294

78

-5.9

-5.2

1.9

28

Red Sox

1875

.246

.296

.389

.300

82

-10.2

-0.1

1.3

29

Twins

4159

.246

.300

.355

.291

80

-37.7

8.6

1.1

30

Yankees

1019

.251

.304

.360

.293

79

-18.5

2.3

-0.9

Now, for the proven veterans who have been around the block and understand what it takes to win at this level.

#

Team

PA

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Fld + Pos

BsR

WAR

1

Red Sox

16623

.276

.343

.447

.343

112

44.7

-2.2

86.1

2

Cardinals

14759

.286

.353

.443

.346

121

-80.9

-11.0

77.0

3

Yankees

17086

.259

.333

.432

.334

107

-7.6

5.6

73.7

4

Rangers

14307

.276

.336

.462

.345

111

-6.4

0.6

68.7

5

Reds

14544

.261

.334

.414

.327

103

93.8

17.2

65.9

6

Rays

15847

.247

.323

.401

.318

104

30.9

1.0

65.4

7

Brewers

14458

.263

.331

.435

.333

108

-19.1

-1.4

59.9

8

Dodgers

15135

.265

.331

.395

.318

103

42.5

-11.2

59.2

9

Tigers

15131

.279

.341

.435

.338

111

-126.3

-37.0

55.0

10

Angels

14234

.262

.321

.408

.318

103

-2.1

-2.8

53.6

11

Athletics

14966

.247

.317

.399

.315

99

-49.1

3.8

46.1

12

Phillies

15064

.258

.324

.406

.319

99

-24.9

6.4

45.6

13

Diamondbacks

11634

.259

.325

.413

.322

97

112.2

-24.9

43.9

14

Giants

12790

.262

.320

.383

.308

98

9.1

18.1

42.2

15

Mets

12647

.260

.332

.404

.322

105

-113.8

33.4

41.9

16

Padres

11949

.251

.321

.384

.310

99

5.1

13.0

40.7

17

Orioles

15085

.254

.315

.424

.322

99

-97.2

-4.7

39.2

18

Braves

11419

.249

.320

.395

.313

97

67.9

-13.3

39.2

19

Royals

11432

.265

.322

.396

.314

94

33.5

20.8

37.5

20

Nationals

11663

.259

.323

.419

.323

102

-51.2

-1.1

36.8

21

Blue Jays

13624

.251

.321

.414

.321

99

-110.0

21.6

36.2

22

Rockies

12688

.273

.340

.433

.336

97

-69.0

12.2

32.0

23

Cubs

11617

.248

.316

.408

.317

94

22.6

-20.6

30.5

24

Twins

13762

.252

.320

.386

.311

94

-68.2

-9.5

28.9

25

White Sox

13946

.256

.320

.404

.317

94

-68.9

-22.1

28.4

26

Pirates

10394

.247

.311

.394

.309

95

-3.2

-19.9

26.1

27

Indians

12937

.249

.322

.392

.315

100

-171.4

-17.8

24.9

28

Astros

10643

.247

.310

.390

.308

92

-23.6

-7.7

22.6

29

Marlins

11317

.246

.309

.365

.297

83

-26.5

19.7

13.1

30

Mariners

10114

.233

.296

.359

.289

83

-57.2

-9.0

6.9

There’s no way to spin this; the position players the Mariners have employed over the last three years that had a modicum of experience have been almost universally terrible. No team in the league has gotten less production from players over the age of 26 during the Eric Wedge era. No team is even close.

The Mariners young players have not been as good as the organization hoped. There’s no question that being 1st in under-25 PAs and 12th in under-25 WAR is a problem, and speaks to the lack of production the team has gotten from several players that they thought were part of their core nucleus. But, there’s no way around the fact that the real problem on the 2011 to 2013 Mariners is that their veteran position players have been hilariously awful. Worst in the league awful. Getting circles run around them by the Astros awful.

I don’t blame Wedge for making these kinds of comments. He knows he’s a week and a half away from being unemployed, and these are the kinds of things that lame duck managers say at the end of frustrating seasons. However, just because he’s saying them doesn’t make them true. You’re going to see these things printed, unchallenged, and basically let stand as declarations, but the blame the kids mantra continues to be factually incorrect.

The 2011 to 2013 Mariners have been terrible primarily because their veterans have been terrible. The kids have been a disappointment, but the experienced players have been a catastrophe. Plain and simple, this team has lost a lot of games because the organization failed to put a useful crop of big league players around the kids they were trying to develop. It might be easy and convenient for Wedge to now simply use the amount of young players the team used as a reason for why the team has lost, but the facts suggest otherwise. The Mariners young players have been disappointing and below average, but the Mariners old players have been cover your eyes terrible.

And that’s why this team has been an embarrassment. And that’s why Eric Wedge is going to lose his job.

Tags:

Comments

58 Responses to “The Blame the Kids Game Continues”

eponymous coward on
September 19th, 2013 7:41 pm

… and the Marlins and Astros (the two teams directly above us) have deliberately been dumping salary and veterans during that 3 year stretch. The M’s, not so much, they’ve actually been trying with signing/retaining guys like Wilson, Olivo, Cust, Kennedy, Ryan, Jaso, Ibañez, Morales, Bay during the past 3 years.

The bottom line is that if we had been minimally more competent (not GOOD at extracting value from veterans, merely not as bad), we’d probably be looking at 20 or so more wins the last 3 years. In other words, it takes us from being in the toilet averaging low 70’s, to being where Oakland was from 2007-2011, averaging high 70’s; not good by any stretch of the imagination, but not circling the drain with a bunch of problems that ALL have to be solved simultaneously to make the team good, and not having to throw young players into the breach (and adding to the organization’s flailing) because the veterans are so hilariously awful, as Dave puts it.

In other words: Jack Zduriencik is no Billy Beane, He’s failed at the task of “put a minimally competent supporting cast of veterans on the field while you develop your kids, so they aren’t being rushed and aren’t losing 90 every year” (something Billy Beane has never done in his career), despite starting with a) Felix and b) a pretty big lump of free salary to work with.

qwerty on
September 19th, 2013 8:04 pm

Ok, I’m convinced. Now I want to see Dave’s posting of new GM candidates.

My new Mgr is Chili Davis.

stevemotivateir on
September 19th, 2013 8:32 pm

Jack Zduriencik is no Billy Beane

I would argue that Jack’s value is equal to that of Billy’s….. as a player.

currcoug on
September 20th, 2013 10:58 am

Crazy,

Agree with your argument in principle…but we probably have different ideas of what constitutes “good”. I would argue that Raul had one “really bad” month, and one “below average” month based on OPS.

I fully realize the above numbers do not reflect base running, steals, etc.

Again, I wasn’t thrilled with the idea of bringing in another geezer (Ibanez), particularly one that struggles against LHP. This season, however, his splits went the other way (.811/.828 OPS).

VivaAyala on
September 20th, 2013 11:21 am

Really good article overall. The problem with the Mariners of late clearly has been their veteran position players.

Still, it strikes me as a bit weird to single out Raul in the comments as being “terrible.” By fWAR, which gives him full demerits for his sketchy defense, Ibanez is fifth on the team at .6, and clearly above replacement. He’s not good, mind you, and the fact that he’s fifth is yet another damning indictment of the construction of this team.

Even so, it seems that the vitriol should be saved for the truly execrable players like Morse and Chavez, for instance, who can’t/couldn’t field or hit. Ibanez, at least, has been doing one of his duties right. Below average but above replacement, in my mind, isn’t “terrible.”

eponymous coward on
September 20th, 2013 11:26 am

Actually, when you account for the position they play, the best offensive players on the team are Seager, Raul, Morales.

None of this should surprise anyone, given that the M’s offense once again sucks.

Raul has a nice SLG, but he doesn’t get on base any more; his .313 OBP for 2013 is 25 points below his lifetime OBP. His power’s good, but that reduced OBP (10 or so points below average when compared to 1B/DH/corner OF) does hurt his value as an offensive player, and it’s an obvious sign that, duh, he’s 41 years old.

Raul wouldn’t have been a “terrible” player at DH (and sure, if the FO wants to indugle him for another year, as long as he doesn’t play much OF, sure, let him retire a Mariner). The problem is the M’s went into the 2013 season with 5 DH’s (Raul, Morse, Morales, Bay and Montero), and thus four of them were playing defensive positions most of the year, which just gets back to the terrible roster decisions the M’s have made the last few years.

VivaAyala on
September 20th, 2013 2:21 pm

Yeah, I don’t dispute the fact that the whole DH-in-the-field extravaganza was a disaster, nor the gist of the original post. Just seemed funny to pick on Raul when he’s one of the least terrible (overall) of the immobile fools to play the field for us this year.

Hunter S. Thompson on
September 21st, 2013 8:09 pm

I think Raul was picked because he is still on the team and still playing the field most nights. Also Raul has hit at a decent level this year. The power is legite, the OBP isn’t great but would be okay if he wasn’t so horrible in the field.
Raul is the definition of a player who is overated because what he does do, slug, is so visible while his horrible defense and bad baserunning gets overlooked.
Nothing against Raul its not his fault he has been asked to take the field as often as he does, but if he can’t play the field and still have value and we already have a better hitter at DH, what purpose does he serve?