Chinese-Russian security relations directly concern many subjects of interest to the Strategic Studies Institute. These areas include regional conflicts, nonproliferation issues, and military force... More > balances. Given the importance of these two countries in international affairs, however, almost any foreign policy action of their governments affects some American national interest. For almost 2 decades, China and Russia have been strengthening their security ties. Nonetheless, as this monograph makes clear, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow remains in flux. In some cases, they share overlapping interests. In other instances, they compete for power and wealth, particularly for oil and gas resources. Many factors will affect Sino-Russian ties— including developments within China and Russia as well as external events. As part of this mix, American policies will also have some impact on the future foreign behavior of both countries.< Less

This monograph considers the changing fortunes of the Palestinian movement, HAMAS, and the recent outcomes of Israeli strategies aimed against this group and Palestinian nationalism external to the... More > Fatah faction of the Palestinian Authority. The example of HAMAS challenges much of the current wisdom on “insurgencies” and their containment. As the author, Dr. Sherifa Zuhur, demonstrates, efforts have been made to separate HAMAS from its popular support and network of social and charitable organizations. These have not been effective in destroying the organization, nor in eradicating the will to resist among a fairly large segment of the Palestinian population. It is important to consider this Islamist movement in the context of a region-wide phenomenon of similar movements with local goals, which can be persuaded to relinquish violence, or which could move in the opposite direction, becoming more violent.< Less

This timely PKSOI Paper on unconventional strategic shock provides the defense policy team a clear warning against excessive adherence to past defense and national security convention. Including the... More > insights of a number of noted scholars on the subjects of “wild cards” and “strategic surprise,” the author, Nathan Freier, argues that future disruptive, unconventional shocks are inevitable. Through strategic impact and potential for disruption and violence, defense-relevant unconventional shocks, in spite of their nonmilitary character, will demand the focused attention of defense leadership, as well as the decisive employment of defense capabilities in response. As a consequence, Mr. Freier makes a solid case for continued commitment by the Department of Defense to prudent strategic hedging against their potential occurrence.< Less

North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs have drawn international attention for years. In the early 1960s, international and domestic political factors impelled Pyongyang to... More > pursue an indigenous capability to produce advanced weapons systems, including rockets and missiles. However, North Korea actively sought foreign technology and assistance, particularly from China and the Soviet Union, to develop its missile capabilities. North Korea has now become a major missile exporter, creating instability in other regions of the world. The ballistic missile inventory now totals about 800 road-mobile missiles, including about 200 Nodong missiles that could strike Japan. In April 2007, North Korea displayed two new missiles: a short-range tactical missile that poses a threat to Seoul and U.S. Forces in South Korea, and an intermediate-range missile that could potentially strike Guam.< Less

Since World War II, the relationship between Turkey and the United States has been characterized by complexity and flux; there have been periods of remarkable cooperation, even when significant... More > disagreements existed. Relations between the two countries are never merely bilateral, for the two are also linked to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). The relationship between those two organizations is also complicated because of differing core purposes and somewhat differing memberships. Current Turkey-U.S. diplomatic and military relations are more strained than in recent years, but both countries recognize how vital it is to address issues of mutual importance. In mid-2007 the Atlantic Council, Strategic Studies Institute, and German Marshall Fund of the United States jointly organized a conference to discuss the current state of U.S.-Turkish-EU ties and to consider how those relations might be repaired and enhanced.< Less

The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes... More > forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential “spillover” from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades.< Less

The reform and the democratic control of the security sector—and the joining together of security and development—have become a major focus of international intervention into... More > post-conflict societies. In theory, security sector reform (SSR) programs derive from a comprehensive national defense and security review. They involve, at the core, the transformation of a country’s military and police forces—but they also involve a comprehensive review and restructuring of intelligence services, the penitentiary, the judiciary, and other agencies charged in some way with preserving and promoting the safety and security of the state and its citizenry. However, the process of SSR in Liberia, supported by the United Nations, the United States, and a number of bilateral donors, is far more rudimentary than the conceptual paradigm suggests. It is aimed simply at the training and equipping of the army and the police, with little attention or resources being devoted to the other components of the security system.< Less

All actions begin from an evaluation of the environment. If our perceptions of the environment are flawed, then our actions flow from error. This is especially important in the military field, given... More > the lives that are in danger if our actions are mistaken, as well as the heavy financial cost associated with equipment, personnel, and training. Unfortunately, it appears that many evaluations of the contemporary military environment are based on a flawed perception of that environment. This monograph revises, reexamines, and reevaluates the contemporary military environment. It finds that the environment is a period of relative military stasis, of slow technological development, and of little novelty in broader issues. If anything, it is a return to an older period, of the time before the Cold War, before the fear of nuclear war dominated all other thinking in the field. This monograph is a first step in a broader and more incisive revision of contemporary strategic thought.< Less

Throughout the 1990s, predictions of Korean reunification were rife. Since then, enthusiasm for such predictions have faded, and although the underlying assumption of reunification remains, forecasts... More > of when and how this will occur have been more subdued. Reunification poses two distinct yet interdependent conundrums: reunification itself, which is the immediate challenge; and the strategic landscape that emerges from reunification, which has the potential to fundamentally transform strategic relationships in Northeast Asia. Within this context, this paper examines the prospects from Korean reunification. Initially, it will establish the framework from which such prospects will emerge: the nature of the North Korean regime, the cost of reunification, and likely reunification scenarios. From this framework, a raft of challenges and opportunities present themselves to the stakeholders in the region; and South Korea, China, the United States and, to a lesser extent, Japan and Russia will be examined...< Less

Forecasting is a challenging business, and this is especially true when North Korea is the subject. A little more than a decade ago, the conventional wisdom was that the end of North Korea was... More > imminent. The country was beset by a severe famine, its economy appeared to have collapsed, and the collapse of the regime seemed destined to follow. In 2008, the conventional wisdom views North Korea as rebounding from the crisis of the last decade and the regime as being on a firm footing. Many experts now scoff at the possibility of the demise of the Kim regime. Dr. Andrew Scobell’s research cautions against wholeheartedly embracing conventional wisdom where North Korea is concerned. This monograph addresses the question of Pyongyang’s future. Specifically, it explores the future of the regime of Kim Jong Il, constructs a number of scenarios, and then identifies the most plausible one.< Less

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