There are whispers in the corridors of Parliament House the government is locked in a Gillard-esque death spiral, writes James Massola.

Here's the non-news from Canberra: the federal government is unpopular, key budget measures remain hostage to a hostile Senate and Prime Minister Tony Abbott is on the nose with his own side.

For those of us waking from our disconnected summer slumber, one eye still on the cricket, the football or the tennis, the last week was remarkable only insofar as it underscored the depth of the Abbott government's political problems.

In trouble: Tony Abbott.Credit:Penny Stephens

Sentiment may, if anything, have deteriorated since the PM moved to strip the ship-of-state of political barnacles last December when he reshaped his frontbench and shook up his office.

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The Coalition is trapped in a nightmare of its own making; unable to secure support for savings such as the $20 cut to the rebate paid for short GP visits or its higher education changes, unable to maintain discipline as leaks and backbiting get a daily run in the 24-hour news cycle and, seemingly, unable to sniff the prevailing political winds.

Opportunities and doorstop interviews turn into negatives. At an event in Sydney this week with NSW Premier Mike Baird to talk about infrastructure, the PM was instead peppered with questions about leaks from his Expenditure Review Committee.

One can't help but wonder what Queensland Premier Campbell Newman privately thought of the launch of five issues papers on industrial relations reform eight days out from the state election. The odds are he was as delighted as former Victorian Liberal premier Denis Napthine was when Abbott and Co. hiked the fuel excise during the campaign.

Thursday's radio interview with Neil Mitchell was another case in point; while a combative (Liberal-voting) caller grabbed the headlines for telling the PM he was the "world's worst salesman", it was Abbott's pitch to his colleagues that was extraordinary.

"If there is one lesson to be learnt from the fate of the former government in Canberra, maybe even the fate of the former government in Victoria, [it] is that you do not change leaders, you rally behind someone and you stick to the plan."

(No mention was made of the successful shift from Barry O'Farrell to Baird in NSW).

The statement, from a first-term prime minister who has been in office just over 500 days, was directed at Liberal MPs, the majority of whom witnessed the spectacular conflagration of the last Labor government and do not need reminding of that particular lesson.

Like Labor in power, the Coalition can't seem to stop talking about itself and there are whispered conversations in the corridors of Parliament House about whether the Abbott government is locked in a death spiral similar to the one that took hold of Julia Gillard soon after she announced the carbon tax, and which never let go.

Most Liberals think not, but the fact that the conversations are even taking place

Fairfax Media has spoken to some 20 Liberal MPs, senators, party officials and former operatives in the past week - both detractors and supporters of the PM - about the difficulties confronting the government.

While some insist the blame lies ultimately with Abbott, others sheet the blame home to his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, suggesting that while she remains so too will the government's woes.

An anecdote being shopped around by critics of Credlin, apocryphal or not, is that she recently effected a change in Abbott's mobile phone number. Long-term Abbott allies have been swapping jokes about how they are still receiving texts from the PM.

Liberals are speculating about who a new leader could be - should it come to that. But the four candidates most likely to replace Abbott all have their detractors.

Many see Joe Hockey as too politically toxic after the first budget's disastrous reception. Questions remain over Julie Bishop, though all acknowledge her popularity. Malcolm Turnbull is seen as the most fully formed candidate, but doubts remain over whether the right of the party could stomach him. And Scott Morrison, though regarded as the government's best and most powerful performer, has only been in Parliament since 2007.

In any event, the overwhelming desire of MPs is for the PM to turn things around and succeed but there is grim acknowledgment that things must change soon.

As one Liberal MP described the almost existential crisis confronting the Abbott government: "Our biggest problem is 'why are we here and what are we going to do now we are here'. The building blocks are there, they've been set up, but we have to grab them."

Or as one Abbott supporter put it: "We are a good government who are really bad at the politics."

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten must get out of bed every day like it is Christmas morning.

It has been a remarkable turnaround for a party that was summarily booted out of office in September 2013.

But there is actually a glimmer of hope (or three) for the Abbott government on the horizon.

Shorten says 2015 will be a year of ideas, after 2014 was a year of consolidation for a battered and bruised Labor.

That may not cut it.

Shorten, like Abbott, will confront a series of policy debates that cannot be easily skirted by an opposition leader who, to date, has managed to be a friend to most without having to define himself too much.

Those policies will include a "families package" that the Abbott government is preparing to launch in the coming months. It will be the centrepiece of the government's attempt to reconnect with middle Australia and hammer home a renewed domestic focus. The next federal budget is unlikely to be as unfriendly or politically brave as Abbott and Hockey's first attempt, with more sweeteners and some politically saleable savings.

As the 2016 election hoves into view, Shorten and his Treasury spokesman Chris Bowen will need to more carefully choose what they oppose and support, with one eye on the future.

Sweeping reviews of the tax and industrial relations systems, and of the federation, present opportunities as well as dangers for Shorten as well as Abbott.

All three will provide Abbott with fodder for a second-term policy agenda - if he chooses to take them on - and while the opposition leader could very easily, for example, choose to run a WorkChoices scare campaign on industrial relations, it's questionable whether such a campaign would have the same impact it did back in 2007.

The debate around tax and the families package will be framed in the context of the next intergenerational report, due to be launched in February, which will underscore the demographic challenges facing Australia's ageing population.

And then there is the mid-year ALP national conference, where a stalled push for Labor reform is sure to get an airing, as will fractious debates about offshore processing, carbon pricing, taxing Australia's resources and recognition of Palestine.

Especially once the Queensland and NSW elections are done, it may not be all plain sailing for the opposition.

Shorten has successfully opposed much of the Abbott government's political agenda and budget savings, including about $5 billion worth of savings that Labor in government actually proposed.

In so doing, he has also managed to palm off the title of "chief opposer" to the colourful Senate crossbench as he has walked in lock-step with the government on national security issues and framed the debate on Labor's preferred turf of health and education.

Late last year, the government estimated that, in total, the Shorten opposition had stymied about $40 billion in savings.

Bowen, in an interview with Sky News this week, signalled he understood the task of the economic challenge ahead - and the task for Labor in 2015 - as he declared the days of "Santa Claus" politics to be over.

"An opposition pretending they can return to surplus, no hard decisions are necessary, no spending cuts, no new tax rises - that's what Tony Abbott said before the election … the Australian people don't believe that any more," Bowen said as he flagged tough, unpopular decisions from Labor.

In contrast, a Labor MP highlights two recent Shorten interviews.

In the first, with 7:30's Leigh Sales in early December, Shorten frustrated the host to the point where she felt the need to point out that it is "actually really important if you want people to vote for you that you explain what you would do".

Shorten's reply: And in good time before the next election we'll detail all of our policies.

The second, with the ABC's James Glenday nine days ago, featured the following exchange:

Glenday: It's a new year and you said that in 2015 Labor will be defined by the power of its ideas. How are you going to fix the budget?

Shorten: Well, you're quite right. We want to talk about ideas in 2015, but I have to say, the Abbott government's got off to a very shaky start haven't they?

Glenday: But that's what the Abbott government's doing. What will Labor do?

Shorten: It is, but the reason why ...

Glenday: What are Labor's ideas for the budget?

Shorten: Well the reason why I'm going to that is, it'd be good if the Abbott government could give Australia breathing space from their bad ideas.

As the same Labor MP observes: "Maybe Bill will just be the luckiest man alive … but you can't say 'yes' to everybody forever."

For all the very real doomsaying and depression in Coalition ranks at the moment, 2015 does promise better offerings for the Abbott government.

Look to the PM laying down significant markers for 2015 in a National Press Club speech scheduled for February 2.

For Shorten, too, 2015 will ask tougher questions that he must be prepared to better answer. Zingers aren't going to cut it.

James Massola is south-east Asia correspondent, based in Jakarta. He was previously chief political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He has been a Walkley and Quills finalist on three occasions.