Thursday, July 23, 2009

Where Obama's losing support

Barack Obama's approval rating peaked in our national polling at 55% in May and is now down to 50%.

A deeper analysis of where shifts in his approval are occurring finds that he's not having any trouble with his base. His numbers with conservative Democrats have actually slightly improved over the last two months to a 72% approval rating, an indication that while the health care battle may be making some Congressmen on the right side of his party uneasy it's not affecting Obama's popularity with that group of voters. He's a couple points up with liberal Democrats and three points down with moderates, trends that basically cancel each other out.

His main drop has been with his moderate Republican support. He was doing decently well with that group of voters earlier in his term, sporting a 38% approval rating. That's now been cut in half to 19%. He's also seen some decline with moderate independents. Although he is still at a solid 55%, that's down from 63% in May. Our polling finds that those voters' top concern is overwhelmingly the economy and they'll support whatever party they find making it better. His drop there may be a reflection of growing impatience that the stimulus has not had a more immediately visible impact.

Tom,It doesn't matter what Obama's approval ratings are now. It only matters in 2012. Republicans are not going to vote for him anyway. Obama will be judged on jobs and the economy. People vote with their pocketbooks. He got elected because of that.

It's interesting that the sharpest declines have been among those identifying themselves as "moderate" -- across party lines. Which just reinforces my suspicion that "moderate" really mean "weak minded, wishy washy, and easily swayed by the corporate media and the conservative propaganda machine."