Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Will Trump's trade war with China give the US military the breathing space it needs?

via National Interest.

The conventional wisdom of the international expert class is that “you can't win a trade war.” What they really mean is that you can't win a trade war in a fair game . If all sides start in balance, the rules are the same for everyone, and no player has coercive power over any other, the winning strategy is for everyone to cooperate. Economics 101.

But if one country starts with a massive trade deficit, the existing rules are written to favor its opponents. And when the country with the trade deficit just happens to be the most powerful country in the world, it's safe to say that there are multiple paths to victory.

Despite being widely ridiculed in the press, the homespun wisdom encapsulated in President Donald Trump's April 4 tweet that “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose!” is essentially correct. The only thing incorrect was the figure. The U.S. trade deficit was $568 billion in 2017, and that figure incorporates America's trade surplus in services. America's trade deficit in goods alone was a whopping $811 billion.

If you're focused on the Chinese military, the US military and how things are playing out then you can be excused if you see the trade war between the US and China as a good thing.

Fact.

The rise of the Chinese military has been fueled by the unfair trade practices of that regime.

Fact.

China has stolen intellectual property, coerced technology from greedy Western corporations in a SUCCESSFUL bid to cheat its natural development path and to accelerate it beyond what would be considered natural growth.

Theory.

This trade war could starve the Chinese military of much needed funds. Their war machine could be strangled on its tricycle (we missed the opportunity to strangle it in its crib) and potentially disrupt their long range plans to supplant the US as the dominant military power on the planet.

Theory.

What might be seen as a reckless move by Trump could have a profound effect on the balance of power for generations. If the Chinese don't yield...If Trump doesn't waiver in the face of blistering criticism from the globalist on both sides of the isle then we could have the breathing space we need to modernize, reequip and God help us --- rest our forces....while at the same time causes so much internal chaos in China that they must turn inward to deal with the unrest caused by laid off workers.

Chaos Theory.

Another outcome is possible and while distasteful must also be considered. This could cause the Chinese to accelerate their plans. Where once they might have thought that they had 20 years, a successful trade war could cause them to act more quickly just to focus attention on an outward threat. In this scenario we could probably kiss Taiwan goodbye.

Summation.

I don't know how this will play out. This was one of those cans that has been kicked down the road by both political parties for so long that it is essentially a crisis and must be dealt with. How it plays out is anyone's guess but I just laid out my theories, now I need to know yours.

Side note.

Some will ask why place our allies under these sanctions if the Chinese are the real target. Blame that on globalization. China has and will funnel products thru Europe, Mexico, Canada and others to avoid our efforts to reel them in. As much as it might hurt this needs to be a global reckoning. That's another chestnut that you can lay at the feet of the fraudulent globalization scheme.