Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Wednesday 04/25 A.M. Quickie:Lies, Damn Lies and NFL Draft Lies

Lies, more lies and the NFL Draft: Pro Football Talk said that the Falcons worked out LSU safety LaRon Landry. The Falcons have also been tied to trading up to draft hometown hero Calvin Johnson.

PFT's best piece of intel -- not that it's a huge surprise -- is to point out the B.S. meter this year is higher than ever. Sorry: The lying. That's right: Lies. Complete outright lies.

I find this fascinating.

I love it how fans and media are willing participants in being lied to now, but get pissed at something like the Nick Saban episode.

Make no mistake: The difference between the deceptions of Saban and the deceptions of every single NFL GM this week are merely of degree, not of type.

They're all liars. It's just that for some reason, fans have a higher tolerance around NFL draft-time for lies.

Why is that? Because "everyone is doing it," and you'd rather have your team lying to get their desired draftee rather than playing it straight -- or simply not deceiving -- and possibly missing out?

Saban's deception never bothered me as much as some people; maybe I am too much of a fan of "House," but I'll stick with his mantra: "Everyone lies."

With the NFL Draft, it goes further than any point during the year. But as with Saban, I can't take the NFL Draft deceptions THAT seriously. It's all part of the game -- all part of sports.

P.S.: Roger "The Commish" Goodell is cracking down on league leaks to the media about confidential info. Remains to be seen if/how this impacts NFL coverage. More likely, reporters will rely even heavier on agents for information. See how it comes back full circle to the lying?

More of today's biggest storylines:

NBA Playoffs: "Re-Heat" frozen over? As someone who picked Miami to repeat as NBA champs, I refuse to panic (yet) about being down 0-2 to the Bulls. Let's see where things stand after the games in Miami. But I'm willing to concede: Luol Deng is having a breakout series.

Meanwhile, now that the Raptors have figured out how to win in the playoffs, I think the series is theirs to finish out.

Pat Tillman Saga: With every new turn of events, this story is being affirmed as arguably the greatest sports-related tragedy in American history. Certainly of this generation. It is so ridiculously tragic, and as more details emerge, it gets worse – if only for the ringer that the Tillmans have been put through by the very military in which their son volunteered to serve.

NBA Draft: Georgia Tech freshman Thaddeus Young put his name in, but reserved the right to withdraw. Given the depth of the draft class, he might be worse off than next year, but – then again – if you're guaranteed to be a first-round pick this year, as Young is, why stay in college? (By the way, he'll be a MUCH better pro than he was a college player.)

Super Sonics fire coach and GM: Well, they probably want new faces and a fresh start when they move the team to OK City next year.

Sam Mitchell as NBA Coach of the Year: Hmm... maybe they should give first-year Raptors honcho Bryan Colangelo that award, in addition to Exec of the Year, because it was Colangelo's moves that made Mitchell's success possible.

Celtics exiling Telfair: How ironic that the new poster child for an unsuccessful prep-to-pro transition was also the most publicized prep-to-pro player?

(And, remember: Prep-to-pro success rates are astonishingly good. Maybe it was because he was a small, poor-shooting point guard, rather than a big guard or big man... but maybe it was that very same build-up that made him a prep-to-pro that undercut his career.)

Very special thanks to Shoals and Dr. LIC from Free Darko for yesterday's pinch-hitting.

92 comments:

I'm not gonna lie, if it weren't for the games, sports would piss me off immeasurably. Between the out of control salaries of players to the constant lying and misleading, what is there to like? Well said, Dan.

It's been said before and it'll be said again: how historic is A-Rod's April if his team isn't actually winning?? Kinda makes the historic month moot, doesn't it.

On Dec. 21, he said: "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." This is a little different then the GM spreading misinformation about who they are going to draft. That's like saying there's only a degree of difference between telling your wife the dress looks great when it's "okay" and telling her that you aren't cheating on her when you are.

I guess you could argue those are "degrees" but it's not in the same galaxy.

1. Get the ball to Kobe.2. Draw a double team.3. Distribute the ball to other guys.4. Lose.

I think they need to go back to the game 1 strategy which at least made it decently close. For the record that strategy was the one above without step 3. Just hope Kobe gets hot and wins some games by himself. It isn't like this hasn't happend before.

While I agree that Tillman's death--and the unbelievable twists and turns the story has endured of late--are a tremendous tragedy, to call it the worst tragedy in American sports history may be a reach...didn't six college baseball players die a couple of months in a horrible bus accident?

I made a "pitch chart". The chart basically shows how pitches relate to eachother. It's hard to understand if you were not a pitcher or really informed on the subject. It has to do with movement and grip. So for instance the Vulcan is connected to the change up and the fork. This is because it is a change-up thrown with a fork-like grip.

Dan, do you happen to have numbers on the astonishingly good prep-to-pro success rate? And does success mean just making a pro roster or does it imply that the player actually had an impact in the NBA?

The Marshall plane crash was a generation ago, this generation's is Dale Earnhardt's death on the last lap at the Daytona 500. That is like ARod or Ortiz getting killed during extra inning's in the World Series or Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl.

Pat Tillman's death while tragicoccured during war and not a sporting event.

Dan, if I were you, I'd start panicking about the Heat, since they'll be going down to my Bulls. They have no answer for Deng (no one on the team can defend his mid-range jumper, which is one of the best in basketball), Hinrich still isn't completely on track, Wallace is doing what the Bulls paid him to do (contain, albeit not stop, O'Neal without fouling out quickly like Chandler did last year), Nocioni has elevated his game for the playoffs again, and they're getting big minutes from Thabo Sefolosha (who can handle Wade defensively...who knew?) and Tyrus Thomas (god I love to see him dunk).

Throw in their team speed (they're killing the Heat on fast breaks) and rebounding edge (they just look hungrier for the ball), this might be over in 4 games. O'Neal and a banged up Wade just can't keep up.

And, oh yeah, the Bulls will also get the Knicks lottery pick this year. Every Bulls fan is praying for one of those top 2 picks - can you imagine this team with Oden or Durant? It would be ridiculous....plus it'd be fun to see the Knicks fans bitch.

I have to disagree with the greatest sports-related tragedy in American history as well. There's a bunch that come to mind (in no particular order)1. Marshall football2. OSU plane crash about 10yrs ago.3. The bus crash in Atlanta (mentioned above).

The Tillman death is tragic in the fact that he gave up so much to do what he believe to be right and ended up getting killed in a way that just raises so many questions. Personally I hate how he his death is being made such a large story when he's only one of thousands (not sure what the numbers are) who've died in the current mess.

On less morbid notes, Yankees in last place in the AL East and Doc kills the Sox...again.

One final bit of rant: Rutgers women's coach getting the Eddie Robinson award and getting a huge contract extension that pays as much as the Schiano? Are you serious? The only reason anyone knows her name is this whole Imus fiasco. Talk about cashing in.

Gosh, the Tillman thing is just pissing me off. How many things had the Army screwed up during this war. I guess it is an ideology thing. While the Marines take care of their stuff, court-martial those who need it, and move on with life, the Army feels a need to lie and cover up. If any of your friends or kids are thinking of joining the Army or Marines steer them to the Marines. Both have their problems, but it seems like the Army gets more and more screwed up every year. This Tillman thing is disgraceful

As for Telfair, what were people thinking when they thought he was going to be some phenom? The guy is pure suckitude. It is a GOOD thing that this happened so the Celtics can move on and hopefully rebuild from the fiasco the last few years have been.

A lot of you guys simply don't get it. What makes the Tillman tragedy so sad is that he turned down fame and fortune to do what REAL MEN do: serve their country. Then that service (the Army) turned against him and tried to make it sound like a heroic death when all it was was a fuck up. Then they tried to cover it up. THAT is what makes it so tragic. The guy was a hero either way. They didn't have to try to make it a recruiting gesture. "Pat Tillman is a HERO!!! YOU SHOULD JOIN TOO AND BE A HERO" That is what they tried to spin it into, rather than displaying how dicked up the Army is.

They picked Telfair at #13, he proceeded to suck for two years, got suspended for bringing a gun on a plane, then Portland traded him essentially for this years R.O.Y. Brandon Roy while handing the point guard duties to Jarrett Jack who looks like will be a solid point guard for a bunch of years.

Essentiall they identified Talfair as a problem and traded him for Jack and Roy. That's like getting 5 for 1 on your money.

@guyinthecorner: love the pitch chart! Although I was a fastpitch pitcher, I see a similarity to the pitches I threw. Just never thought to organize all of them like that. My personal (and my catcher's) favorite was my knuckle ball--motion virtually indistinguishable from my other pitches, but ~10-15mph less and completely unpredictable.

@jhawk: Whereas I don't agree w/the Eddie Robinson award, I do think she merits the big contract. I mean, her team did finish 2nd in the country and all, and she is still one the premier coaches in women's bball.

I'm really withholding glee at the demise of the Heat (even if at the hands of the bulls). Last year they were able to tie it at 2-2 in the finals before the refs gave game 5 to the Heat. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat came back in similar fashion in the series.

oh and @ chaddog: curse your Bulls! If there's a God, I'm hoping the knicks get the 13th pick!!

The NFL leaks from the combine are pretty disturbing and I hope the commissioner is able to do something about this. I am glad he is trying. First, the league promises confidential interviews and wants the players to discuss everything openly, then to find out it is leaked makes it so much more tragic. Second, what are the chances that a team lower in the draft order leaked the information, since it is only being leaked about potential top 10 picks. I'd be willing to bet that more than 3 players at the entire combine admitted to drug use. But, we only see top 10 potential picks? If I had the 20th pick in the draft, and I knew I couldn't get one of those guys, I would leak the information. Then, if I am the Giants, I can throw stones at the Falcons for making another dumb pick, or I can watch a great player fall to me in the draft because teams are worried about "character" issues. It only makes sense to do it as a GM, and so I hope that the league can crush this type of activity.

Now, on to the prep-to-pro successes, or lack there of. I know there are some good prep to pro players now, but I think Dan is pretty carried away in calling it a success. First, I would only call it a success if they are good in their first year, as otherwise they would have had a year or more of college by the time they become decent NBA players. Given that criteria, only 2 prep-to-pro players have been rookie of the year, so the other 39 could have played a year in college and then had a better shot at ROY. Using the 1995 draft of Garnett as mys tarting point, only 8 prep-to-pro players have even been in an all-star game, out of 41 who have been drafted and the 50+ who have entered the draft. 11 of 41 have been 2nd round picks, so surely a year or 2 of college would have made them higher picks and gotten more immediate money. And in the last draft class that had preps, 10 were taken overall, but 7 were 2nd round selections. Of those 10, the only one who is doing much of anything is Andrew Bynum, and he isn't even that good. So those 10 guys could have just finished up their 2nd year of college and entered the draft now with 2 years of actual playing experience, rather than pine time and low salaries.

I guess when you say that 8 out of 41 players drafted of a certain category are all-stars, that might look good. But even with that in mind, think about their first few years in the league and realize that only 3 or 4 have had such an immediate impact that they didn't need college at all.

It seems that people are confusing the two, so I'd just like to point out that Pat Tillman died in Afghanistan, not in Iraq. I have to whole-heartedly agree with ferocious regarding why it's really tragic.

That said, it's not really a sports-related tragedy. I agree with jhawkjim regarding the American tragedies, but one I'd also like to mention one from outside our country...the Hillsborough disaster in 1989. 96 fans were crushed to death in a stampede-like way due to stadium, game official, and police mismanagement.

Despite the fact that Tillman was in the NFL, it isn't a sports story.And if all it takes to be a 'hero' is to sign up for the Army...Only important thing, imo, is that his family gets what it is they are looking for.

In more important news...The Brewers are looking good. Anyone else feel weird about that?

Still, the 13th pick in this year's loaded draft? You're telling me you'd rather have Eddy Curry than that draft pick and Tyrus Thomas (or Aldridge, since he's technically who the Bulls picked with that pick last year)?

Bulls winning the lottery = the greatest thing ever to happen to anti-New York fans.

Tillman dying was tragic. But I think the cover-up is a lot more disgraceful than it is tragic.

Fortunately, it seems like the Army is getting called out on this one. Aside from the pleas of the family for the truth, the damning testimony came from the other ranger who said that he was ordered to cover up what happened. Between that and the Jessica Lynch fiasco... well it's pretty disgraceful.

Verbal, I had no idea about the Hillsborough disaster... wow. Without remembering any other specifics, there have been quite a few deadly soccer stadium tragedies across the world, right?

Dan, Andy, you raise a point about what there is to like about sports? I don't really care about the out of control player salaries. There is big money in sports so why shouldn't the players get some of it? Would you feel better if the owners kept it all?

High ticket prices are not the result of players salaries, they are the result of people who are willing to pay for them. If tickets sales drop, prices may go down.

Watching sports (very different than playing sports) is just escapism from our daily lives. We get to worry about completely unimportant things like if a batter can get a hit or a receiver can catch a ball. The important thing is to realize how unimportant sports are and then you can enjoy them that much more.

My wife is an avowed sports atheist - she just couldn't care one iota about any sport. When she asked why I care, I answered that it was the same as her caring if the main character in her book was able to reconcile her differences with her emotional mother or some other crap like that. It doesn't really matter, but for a few hours we pretend it does.

"Prep-to-pro success rates are astonishingly good"...we all know Dan loves to tout the kids jumping to the pros. But you can't just make a statement like that without some numbers. I personally think the success rates are FAR from astonishingly good. What about the multitude of kids who declare every year that nobody hears about?

First, define "success". Is that just getting drafted, excelling in the League, what? Second, give me numbers from the last 10-15 years of drafts (NBA only, I'll let ya off easy).

I'm serious, I've never seen any hard statistical evidence backing this claim up.

todd, there have been an alarming number of soccer-related tragedies (as well as other sports in other countries). Two others that come to mind are the Heysel Stadium tragedy resulting in 39 deaths (that was due to hooliganism) and this year 1 police officer died in a soccer riot outside a stadium in Italy.

It's interesting because I can't think of an instance in American sports where anything like that happened. I know there was the Who concert in Cincinati where 8 people or so died in a stampede (again for the same reasons as the Hillsborough disaster)

Again, if I was technologically inclined, I would make this a link, but this website chronicles every prep-to-pro player ever in the NBA:

http://ssbasketball.rivals.com/ content.asp?SID=1132&CID=356192

Just remove the space if you cut and paste it. Most interesting is that pre-2000, not many players did make the leap, but most of them have been very good (but again, how many were good in their first few years?). Starting with KG in '95, there's Kobe and Jermaine O'Neill in 96, T-Mac in 97, and then the 98-00 have nothing good out of 7 players. The '01 class has Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, and Ousmane Cisse? No MVPs there? '02 was Amare, '03 wsa Lebron, '04 Dwight Howard, and other than that a bunch of nothing.

thistle- I can't argue whether she's a top rated coach or not because I had no idea who she was until the whole Imus thing. That's just a product of her coaching in women's basketball where the only names that are known (to average sports fans) are Auriema and Summit. I live in Big 12 country and I can't name the coach of Baylor who won the national title 2 years ago.

For most (Div 1) schools there's only two revenue generating sports: football and men's basketball. All other sports tend to be completely subsidized by those two. So its surprising that now she's going to be paid as much as the football coach.

I haven't seen any report recently, but about 4 years ago I read that the only 3 revenue producing women's sports were the basketball teams at Tennessee and UConn and the volleyball team in Hawaii (it was in the Honolulu Star Bulletin).

But, the basketball coach at Rutgers has the 3rd most wins in women's college basketball history, so she is probably worth something. I wonder if Schiano regrets turning down Miami now, knowing that a sport watched by a few hundred hard core fans a night has a coach paid equally to him, given that he started "Rutgers Fever" this year. I mean, really, even with Rutgers finishing 2nd this year, the only good story about them that isn't Imus related is that they avenged a 45 point beatdown by Duke between the regular season and the tournament.

Not sure how much revenue they bring in, but they probably are the most accomplished program there in recent school history(Big East champs mult. times). But I will have to concede that her getting as much as the f-ball coach (who also had a pretty good season) is a bit of a surprise. But it's a good surprise for all us ladies out here! :)

The more I look at my work the more I am impressed with myself which probably isn't a good thing. The thing is that I used to pitch and know how to throw all of these. I sucked at some and was great at others. My 4seam, curve, knuckle-curve, cutter, circle change were good. I threw an Eephus once. That was funny.

To the average baseball fan, I feel like the chart could be usefull. Don't know what a "Shuuto" is? The chart tells you that it is a breaking ball that is a mix between the slider and screwball. There you go.

The URL again is:http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s240/hiddendragon1986/pitch3.jpg

I wouldn't be surprised to see Schiano go and ask for more money or try to get another job next season. I am SOOO sorry that her team was called Nappy Headed Hos and everything, but no way she deserves to be paid the same as a head football coach.

I didn't know she had the third most wins in history. And maybe she completely deserves it and if she does that's awesome. It just seemed interesting to me that this is coming out after all the Imus stuff. Even though it probably has ZERO to do with that and 100% with the season, its the way things are that it seems related more to Imus and the publicity from that than the season. We had a great one out here at KU in Marian Washington and haven't done much since she's left. So if you have a good one then definetely do what you have to do to keep her.

And if Schiano wins more the next couple of years, he'll get another pay raise. Right now its just too early I think to give him top tier money.

The Rutgers contracts have the same base of $450,000/ year, but Schiano has a lot more "upside potential". He actually makes about $1.5M when you factor in the guaranteed money from boosters, the television/radio shows, and the athletic apparel endorsements.

Stringer has a max of about $900,000, which places her in the top 5 of all women's basketball coaches. But, given that she's already in the hall of fame with the 3rd most wins all time, she probably should be in the top 5.

I'm still waiting for Dan to back up his incredible success rate of prep to pros.

Oh yeah, an Santana lost his 2nd home game last night. How is that not huge news for a guy who went undefeated at home last year?

I think that Nick Saban/misinformation from NFL GMs is not the same thing at all.

The draft is part of a game. In fact, you could easily argue it's just an extension of the games during the season on the playing field. Defenses try to disguise their coverage to gain an advantage in the game. NFL GM's are trying to jockey for the best draft picks and therefore are disguising their real interests. Are you going to tell me that NFL defensive coordinators lie because they hide the coverages?

Nick Saban on the other hand lied. I didn't really mind it, it seems sort of cowardly, though. But he wasn't playing any game. Not any obvious game anyway. What did he have to benefit from lying. I suppose he was trying to pull more money from Alabama but this is not part of any game. This is not jockeying for position and disguising your coverages. This is just a flat out lie.

And that's why fans tolerate "lies" at this time of year. We know it's all part of the draft game.

The Telfair thing with the Celtics is just interesting. They want to exile Telfair for his third run in with the law, but were willing to wait it out with Tony Allen who's had a couple spats himself. I guess the difference is that Allen still has some ability but Telfair has been a third string PG in Portland and now Boston. Not that I don't think someone who gets arrested three times doesn't deserve to lose their job, especially when the allegations have been what they are. I just think equitable treatment might be a good way to go.

Great move by Ainge giving up Brandon Roy for him. 5 years at the job, 5 offseason plans. Realizing that Portland made a smarter move than Boston makes my head hurt. I guess the gun on the plane wasn't enough to scare Ainge off...

Ask for another star player (Jermaine O'Neal), to be traded, or to trade for some draft picks.

Let's be honest. Kobe is the best player in the game. He's clearly the top scorer and a way above average defender. He needs help. Walton-Farmar-Kwame-Odom scares nobody. I might be able to take the top 8 guys on the Warriors and make 2 groups better than those 4.

You mean that the Lakers having 3 prep to pro stars on their team isn't enough? Heck, Kwame Brown was the #1 overall pick. Add in their 2 European players, and they'd have a starting 5 that never stepped foot on an American college court. That sounds like pure championship material to me.

They were filming this year's Campbell's chunky soup commercials. It's a 4 on 4 with him Damarcus Ware, LdT, Todd Heap, MJD, Gets 7, and others. Apparently crew people kept telling him to move away from the cameras cause they thought that he was Todd Heap's dad. Apparently they look alike. He had to explain that he was actually one of the players.

This motivated him to wear a hat the other night when he went to see 300 at a local theater while wearing a hat so that he doesn't look so old. He got to the window and because it was rated R the girl carded him. He took off his hat and she apologized profusely.

Although the Lakers have Kobe, Bynum, and Kwame (high school) as well as Radmonovic and Vujacic Europe the Warriors have Ellis, Harrington, and Jackson (high school) as well as Biedrins, Jasikevicius, Pietrus, and Carbarkapa.

Being that Kobe and Kwame are the only guys with major roles on the Lakers from that list while everyone on the Warriors list except Carbarkapa and maybe Jasikevicius are important to their team, I think this is not a good point.

Seattle and Pacers fire their coaches for close to 50 losses. The Knicks give a 5 year contract to Isiah Thomas. I guess Dolan's expectations are less with the Knicks. But hey, they might be rebuilding. Nah, they traded down or away their draft choices for the next couple of years. Also their players have long term contracts and they have little room under the salary cap. But the owner thinks Isiah is moving in the right direction.

Can someone explain this to me. Conspiracy theories welcome. My personal theory is that Isiah Thomas and Dolan are gay lovers.

I really don't get it where the football coach has to be the highest paid at a school. And this isn't just a college thing, it is prevalent at the high school level also. I really don't get it at the college level and upper high schools where the head coach is not a coordinator of anything. Those are the ones that really blow my mind. I had a hard time handling it when I was an only coach for basketball and made almost half of the football coach that had 4 assistants? I brought in just as much money too, if that is your argument (5 home games vs 14).

Even with that extensive list of prep to pros, we have now listed 18 good players in the group. Since 1995, 51 HS players have declared for the draft, 41 were drafted, 30 were drafted in the first round. 2 were ROY.

Also included in that 51 is Charlie Villanueve, who did not sign with an agent, went undrafted, and then went to UConn, where he went on to get drafted eventually.

There are good prep to pros players, but I would still argue that most of them should have gone to college, given how well they played in their first 2-3 NBA seasons.

Yes, going pro out of HS gets them paid while learning instead of going to college. But only a handful of these guys were actual lottery picks (and not Kobe or KG), I would think that the difference in pay between being a lottery pick and a 2nd round pick (say Steven Jackson) would more than make up for having to wait for a year to get it.

will- football coach isn't always the highest paid coach (speaking college level here). It depends on which of the two programs generates the most money. At KU basketball is king and bills the bills so Self is paid more than Mangino is. But for most (div 1A) schools, there's no doubting that basketball and football pay the bills.

How about with the caveat that they never really reached their full potential, but did show some flashes of greatness that showed that there easily could've been more. So Sayers I think had enough greatness to not be a total loss. Terrell Davis is another I would say had enough success just to miss this.

Griffey: I put him on the list prior (ha!) to reading the "never really reached their full potential" comment. Still, has anyone compared his numbers before and after he smashed into the wall? We wouldn't be worried about Bonds breaking Aaron because Griffey would have been right behind him.

Griffey averaged 52 HR/YR from 96-99 and went 93-00 with at least 40 HR/YR except the injury shortened 95 season. He hasn't played a full season since 2000 (hammies; the wall was in 95 and his average dropped after that, but his HRs came back up).

As a Terp myself, Len Bias will always mean alot to me. He is the reason that I never tryed any drug whatsoever. I can close my eyes and see him beating Jordan like a dusty rug in college. I think about him multiple times a day and especially everytime anyone brings up the who is the next MJ topic. I always say to myself "What if Lenny kept ahead of Jordan?"

Some people may not understand how I feel and that's OK. If you don't get it, you just don't get it. One guy who I know does though is Bill Simmons. This is my favorite article he ever wrote.

@ Brian:Did you see Floyd that year? The entire team was great, but he did everything...AS A ROOKIE! The offense flourished because they didn't have to worry about blitz pick-up problems. SF's running stats aren't that good, but they were a passing offense and he was HUGE in protection. Then it all fell apart: he got hurt and played 5 more seasons in obscurity then was out of football.

Is there a more thankless position in all of sports than football RB? An injured back is immediately replaced and only rarely does that back return to be the workhorse of his team. Add in that NFL doesn't guarentee contracts (for the most part) and almost an major injury is suddenly career ending.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.