Asylum request poses dilemma for Ecuador’s leader

Quito President
Rafael Correa
of Ecuador has more than just the ire of the United States to consider as he weighs an asylum request from fugitive intelligence contractor
Edward Snowden
.

Mr Correa has some tangible factors to think about as well – namely Ecuadorean exports such as fresh-cut roses and frozen broccoli.

In recent months, Mr Correa’s government has been in Washington, lobbying to retain preferential treatment for some key Ecuadorean products. But that favoured status, which means keeping thousands of jobs in Ecuador and cheaper goods for US consumers, could be among the first casualties if Mr Correa grants asylum to Mr Snowden.

While the downside for Ecuadorean rose growers, artichoke canners and tuna fishermen (whose products also get preferential treatment) is clear, the material benefits of granting asylum to Mr Snowden are far less so. The decision could ultimately rest on the combative personality of Mr Correa and his regional ambitions.

“The risks are enormous," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a policy group in Washington. Referring to Mr Correa, he said: “It would bring the United States down very hard on him."

Mr Correa, fresh off a landslide re-election victory, glories in a fight.

He relishes tweaking the US and may aspire to take on the mantle of leader of the Latin American left that was once worn by Hugo Chavez, the loudly anti-imperialist president of Venezuela who died in March.

“Rhetorically, he aspires to be a leader. This may be a situation that’s hard for him to resist, given his nature and his temperament," Mr Shifter said.

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Relations with the US have been rocky almost since Mr Correa first took office in 2007. He stopped US anti-drug flights from an Ecuadorean military base. In 2011, he kicked out the American ambassador, angered by a diplomatic cable revealed by WikiLeaks that suggested he was aware of police corruption and looked the other way.

Waning influence of US

Last year, he gave asylum in the Ecuadorean embassy in London to the WikiLeaks founder,
Julian Assange
.

Analysts said that if Mr Correa does give asylum to Mr Snowden, the US could also try to isolate Ecuador politically, asking allies in the region to step up pressure on issues such as press freedom.

The same weekend that Mr Snowden’s asylum request was made public, Mr Correa signed a new media law that critics say would quash much critical coverage of the government.

But Orlando Perez, the director of El Telegrafo, a government-owned newspaper, said that granting asylum to Mr Snowden should not provoke a confrontation with the US.

“What is at play is to guarantee human rights," he said. “Rather than hurt Ecuador, it puts it in a kind of political vanguard in Latin America."

Many in Latin America feel that the Obama administration has not made relations in the region a priority, and the episode may become another example of Washington’s waning influence in the region.

The stand-off last year over Mr Assange, who took refuge in Ecuador’s embassy in London to escape being sent to Sweden where he is wanted for questioning on allegations he sexually assaulted two women, gave Mr Correa a chance to portray himself as the defiant leader of a tiny country standing up to a world power. Mr Snowden’s request allows him to do the same again.

Both cases also helped Mr Correa defend himself against charges that he is too harsh with the press, allowing him to portray himself as a champion of transparency.

Mauricio Gandara, a former ambassador to London who is critical of Mr Correa, said the president aspired to become an admired Latin American leftist like Chavez or Fidel Castro.

“How much damage it does to Ecuador is another matter," Mr Gandara said. “They want to go beyond Chavez. They want to challenge the world."