‘El Sackico’ looms as Mark Hughes and Nigel Adkins face off in basement battle between QPR and Southampton

When Neil Warnock was sacked in January as manager of Queens Park Rangers, a
clue as to what was coming could be found 48 hours earlier on Twitter. Tony
Fernandes, the QPR chairman and a prolific contributor to the micro-blogging
world of 140 characters, had delivered an uncompromising statement about
life at Loftus Road.

Feeling the heat: QPR manager Mark Hughes has had the full backing of chairman Tony Fernandes despite the team being bottom of the leaguePhoto: PA

“It is important to note no one job is safe,” he wrote. “Results are key. If I don’t deliver I would be the first to step down as chairman. We owe it to all the fans.”

Warnock, with QPR 17th in the Premier League and averaging 0.85 points per game, was duly removed from his post. Mark Hughes was appointed, money was lavished on 13 new players but results have actually deteriorated.

So far this season, QPR are without a Premier League win, bottom of the table and averaging just 0.36 points per game. It seemed significant and potentially even ominous, then, that Fernandes should take to Twitter last week and describe Saturday’s match against Southampton as a “must-win” fixture.

The same, of course, could be argued for Southampton. They have lost all five of their games this season away from St Mary’s, have the worst defensive record in the division and are only one point ahead of QPR. It has all led to this match being christened ‘El Sackico’, a description that prompted prolonged laughter from Adkins when it was put to him on Thursday.

Adkins said he was “pretty sure” that both he and Hughes would still be in a job come Monday but he will also know that the losing manager Saturday will be shortest-priced with most bookmakers to become the first Premier League casualty of the season. Yet, for very different reasons, that does not mean that it is certain to happen.

At QPR, Fernandes genuinely still believes that there is no better option than Hughes, even with Harry Redknapp available and likely to be interested. In his defence, Hughes can justifiably point to past experiences with Blackburn and Fulham where he has reversed poor starts to the season. Yet it is perhaps also significant that Fernandes’s credibility has become so intertwined with Hughes.

This was Fernandes on Oct 7: “For all QPR fans. I am not changing anything. No way. Mark is the right man.”

And again on Oct 22: “QPR needs time and stability. We have a great squad, great manager and great CEO.”

And on Nov 5: “Changing our manager now would be suicidal. Mark’s a good guy. Cream always rises to the top. He has our backing.”

Hughes has had more public votes of confidence from Fernandes this season than QPR have accumulated points. The danger, then, is that Fernandes’s judgment could become clouded by the simple fact that he would look daft if he now does make a change.

Communication with fans is admirable but, on this issue, it is surely inadvisable to offer a running commentary. Southampton certainly subscribe to this thinking, with no one, not even Adkins, certain what chairman Nicola Cortese actually thinks. Cortese has made no public comment on the managerial situation, although he will be aware of a strong feeling locally for Adkins. Unlike Hughes, Adkins has already built up considerable goodwill by overseeing back-to-back promotions to lift the club some 44 places up the Football League pyramid in the 26 months he has been employed.

Cortese, though, did seriously consider his options after the defeat at West Bromwich Albion 12 days ago, with Adkins meeting the chairman the following day but eventually granted more time.

Financially, there is so much at stake for both clubs. In their most recently published accounts, for the 2010-11 season, QPR’s wages to turnover ratio was already a whopping 183 per cent. Subsequent signings over the past three transfer windows are unlikely to have made the model any more self-sustaining.

Reassurance, even in the event of relegation, is mostly provided by the fact that the Mittal family, regulars in the Forbes list of the world’s richest people, own 33 per cent of the club.

Southampton, too, have been bold since promotion. They broke their transfer record twice in spending around £28 million during the summer and, according to most estimates, were behind only Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs in net transfer fees.

Southampton have been relatively less extravagant in their spending on wages and did have their financial position solidified in March when the Liebherr estate, the club’s ultimate owners, converted £33 million of loans into share equity.

Even with two-thirds of the season remaining, Saturday’s match is likely to be a defining moment in both clubs’ seasons. El Sackico? Maybe. A relegation six-pointer? Certainly.