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Is there a more inexact science that baseball prospect rankings? Mark Prior was supposed to be as sure of a thing as ever, and injuries derailed his career. Stephen Strasburg has already had Tommy John surgery. Albert Pujols was a mid-round draft pick who flew through the minor leagues like no one could have expected. When the Twins drafted Matt Moses, he was supposed to be a very pure high school hitter. Ryan Mills was such a good college pitcher with perfect mechanics, and he never got above AAA. BJ Garbe? Well, that was probably a bad pick. But for every missed first-round pick, the Twins have had successes later in the draft and with non-draft free agents. Now the efforts internationally are starting to pay dividends as well.

I have been following the Twins minor league system pretty much daily for the last six seasons. I have been trying to figure out patterns and strategies over that time. I made my first real top prospect list following the 2004 minor league season. Early on, the rankings were based mostly on numbers and things I’d read. In recent years, I have been able to gain a lot more contacts, so rankings are based on scouting as much as stats. The funny thing is that no matter how much more information goes into prospect rankings, they remain a completely inexact science.

So why post this blog? It can only make me look dumb! Well, many of you probably agree that I do a decent job of that already, so why not? I think historical prospect lists are fun to look at for a couple of reasons. First, it is fun to see which sleepers you picked. Second, it’s fun to see which players you were completely wrong about. And finally, it’s just fun to see the names and think back. Do you remember when Deacon Burns was compared to Kirby Puckett? Do you recall when I was excited about “Three Rockcats with Bats.” They were Kevin West, Doug Deeds and Luis Maza. The Real Deal? Really?

These lists are absolute garbage and the only purpose they serve are selling papers and delivering web hits for family members and high school classmates.
The Twins have some excellent prospects left unnamed from your Top 20 for 2011. However I must admit Seth, you hit a few on the head with Tony Davis, Arcia and the like. Don’t think Goodrum is a top 20 guy. Would have much rather seen Beersford, Danny Santana or Nick Lockwood. All are either much better defenders or hitters as infield prospects. go.

Not bad lists. I think you do better than Baseball America. But you need to include guys you missed to really evaluate your choices. Mijares seems to be missing entirely, as is Tolbert.

Everyone was wrong on JD Durbin, but if you want glaring errors that were predictable look at guys like Harben, Oeltjen, Romero and Winfree. Or Garret Jones for that matter (although he finally got a chance elsewhere).

I like the lists. Everyone missed on Durbin but who knew that his minor injuries were bigger than anyone knew.
Manship is another I thought that many were too high on due to him getting away with hard hit outs in the minors.
The 2007 list may have some of the most raw talent in Winfree, Moses and Romero that eventually faded.

I appreciate the work you put into covering the minor leagues Seth, but honestly prospect lists mean absolutely nothing at all. They are simply opinions of whoever is putting them together.
LEW….Tony Davis is not a big time prospect. The kid struggles to throw strikes on a consisten basis. Just because the Twins have rushed him to AA doesnt mean he is a prospect.

Joe Smith, I have seen Tony Davis play for many years and trust me, he is a prospect that the Twins will have in the big leagues within 2 years. Great middle guy or LH setup man and induces ground balls in bunches. Hardest working LH pitcher in the Twins system and they LOVE him.