Police, Crime, and Money: The New York Story

Over at Less
than the Least, Bill Stuntz has a link to his latest
article in the Weekly Standard advocating for an increase in police
funding. Stuntz argues that more police usually translates into less
crime and less incarceration over time. That argument makes a lot
of sense: more boots on the ground means more enforcement which should
translate into less crime.

Yet there might be more to the story. In New York
State, for instance, crime
fell precipitously from the late 1990s until 2007 while the number of police
personnel also decreased. Take New York City. In 1998,
the city employed slightly over 40,000 police personnel (making it the world's
largest police force). That same year, the city registered 85,915
incidents of violent crime. By 2007, the police force had shrunk to
slightly over 36,000. Violent crime also had declined - quite
dramatically - t0 just above 50,000 cases. Outside of New York
City, the trend was somewhat different. In 1998, there were about 24,000
police personnel (excluding state police, which accounted for roughly an
additional 4,000). Violent crime stood then at about 30,000
incidents. By 2007, the police forces outside of NYC were about the same
in number (as well as the state police), but violent crime had declined a
modest 7.5%.

What is striking about the data during this period is that while New York State saw
slight decreases in police personnel it also witnessed slight to substantial
decrements in all categories of crime statewide. Moreover, this also
occurred during a period of decreased
incarceration. In 1998, the state prison population totaled around
71,000. By 2007, it was about 62,000. Likewise, there were
reductions in the number of A1
drug offenders in state prison (sentences of 15 or more years) and drug
offenders generally. In most ways all parts of the state
witnessed these trends. But an interesting phenomena also took
place. During this time period, upstate
NY overtook NYC as the leader of regional percent of all crimes
committed. This occurred during a continued
and prolonged reduction in overall population in most cities located in upstate New York.
What accounts for these counter-intuitive
findings?

One answer may lie in who was being incarcerated during
this period. During the late 1990s and early 2000's, New York, like many
jurisdictions, saw substantial federal assistance in enforcement and prosecution
of repeat violent offenders. From the "weed and seed" program
to various illegal firearms programs, New York was aided by federal money and
federal prosecutions of targeted violent offenders -and many of those offenders
landed in the federal penitentiary (whose numbers have grown
significantly during the last 20 years). It's an old
truism in criminological literature that the few bad apples cause most of
the problems. Recidivism rates attest to that fact.

Another explanation suggests the old notion of
socio-economic factors. During the period in question, most upstate NY
communities continued to suffer from prolonged economic downturns and decreased
populations. It is well known that poverty is linked to crime. As such,
what happens with the current state of the economy matters not just in terms of
traditional fiscal contingencies - it matters in terms of crime
prevention. And money has a lot to do with police hiring practices.
But the allocation of law enforcement monies should be done wisely with
an emphasis on targeting the offenders who do the most damage to
communities. And if crime reduction is the goal, judicious use of
federal law enforcement might provide the needed bite. But ultimately,
the question with police stimulus may not just lie with boots on the ground but
whether the overall stimulus plan really stimulates the economy.
And that is an open question indeed.

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1 Comment

What is striking about the data during this period is that while New York State saw slight decreases in police personnel it also witnessed slight to substantial decrements in all categories of crime statewide.
Angela From PayDay Loans Blog.