It is instructive to view the 2014 Senate Exit Polls in North Carolina, Alaska and Colorado. These were close elections won by the Republicans.

In each poll, vote shares for minority voters are missing, although the percentages of the total vote are listed. As usual, the exit polls matched the recorded vote. But when plausible minority vote share estimates are added, the Democrat is the winner.

North Carolina

Tillis (R) was a 48.8-47.3% winner.

Just 95% of the 2783 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote.

Assume that Hagan won 70% of the missing Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.

Hagan wins by 48.1-47.5%.

NC 2014

Exit Poll

2783 respondents

MoE: 2.41%

Pct

Hagan (D)

Tillis (R)

Haugh (I)

Whiite

74%

33%

62%

4%

Black

21%

96%

3%

1%

Hispanic

3%

na

na

na

Asian

1%

na

na

na

Other

1%

na

na

na

Adj.Share

95%

44.6%

46.5%

3.2%

Recorded

100%

47.3%

48.8%

3.7%

True Share

Hagan

Tillis

Haugh

White

74%

33%

62%

4%

Black

21%

96%

3%

1%

Hispanic

3%

70%

20%

10%

Asian

1%

70%

20%

10%

Other

1%

70%

20%

10%

True share

100%

48.1%

47.5%

3.7%

Recorded

100%

47.3%

48.8%

3.7%

Alaska

Sullivan (R) was a 48.8-45.6% winner.

Just 86% of 1,826 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote.

Assume Begich won 94% of missing Blacks and just 50% of Hispanic and Asian voters (conservative).

Begich is a 48.0-46.6% winner.

AK 2014

Exit Poll

1826 respondents

MoE: 2.98%

Race

Begich (D)

Sullivan (R)

Other

White

78%

45%

49%

6%

Black

3%

na

na

na

Hispanic

5%

na

na

na

Asian

6%

na

na

na

Alaskan

8%

57%

38%

5%

Adj.Share

86.0%

39.7%

41.3%

5.1%

Recorded

100%

45.6%

48.8%

3.7%

True Share

Begich (D)

Sullivan (R)

Other

White

78%

45%

49%

6%

Black

3%

94%

4%

2%

Hispanic

5%

50%

47%

3%

Asian

6%

50%

47%

3%

Alaskan

8%

57%

38%

5%

True share

100%

48.0%

46.6%

5.5%

Recorded

100%

45.6%

48.8%

5.6%

Colorado

Garner won the recorded vote by 48.5-46.0%.

A whopping 20% of 994 exit poll respondents vote shares were not included in the poll. Assume that Udall won 95% of the missing Blacks, and 60% of Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.