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Friday, May 27, 2016

The latest ReachTEL poll has Labor in a winning position with 52 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, compared with the Coalition on 48 per cent: a four point lead. This is the third poll in a row where ReachTEL has allocated preferences using respondent preferences, rather than preference flows from the previous election. The respondent preferences appear to favour Labor by around a percentage point on average (but contained largely to the first and third polls). In past elections, respondent preferences have proved unreliable.

Because of this methodological difference, I have decided to treat these latest ReachTEL polls as a new series (labeled RT2 on the charts). This raises continuity issues: as it changes the property of the sum to zero assumption, moving it slightly to Labor. As a consequence, I will use the TPP model that is anchored to the result at the last election from here on to the election.

The sum-to-zero TPP model has the Coalition on 49.3 per cent.

The TPP model anchored to the outcome of the previous election has the Coalition on 50.2 per cent.

Of note: both charts suggest that the Coalition held steady early in the campaign, bur has declined in the last week or so.

Another Friday; another update. We start with the Coalition win odds from this morning.

House

Coalition Odds ($)

Labor Odds ($)

Coalition Win Probability (%)

2016-05-27

Betfair

1.31

3.66

73.64

2016-05-27

CrownBet

1.30

3.45

72.63

2016-05-27

Ladbrokes

1.33

3.10

69.98

2016-05-27

Luxbet

1.28

3.60

73.77

2016-05-27

Sportsbet

1.30

3.50

72.92

2016-05-27

TABtouch

1.30

3.25

71.43

2016-05-27

William Hill

1.30

3.40

72.34

This next table is the implied win probabilities over week. On average, the Coalition ends the week just over a percentage point down on where they started.

Fr 20-May

Sa 21-May

Su 22-May

Mo 23-May

Tu 24-May

We 25-May

Th 26-May

Fr 27-May

Betfair

75.80

75.19

74.51

73.10

72.14

72.65

72.43

73.64

CrownBet

72.63

72.63

72.63

72.63

72.63

72.63

72.63

72.63

Ladbrokes

72.34

72.34

72.34

71.74

69.98

69.98

69.98

69.98

Luxbet

73.77

73.77

73.77

73.77

74.04

74.04

73.77

73.77

Sportsbet

72.92

72.92

72.92

72.92

72.92

72.92

72.92

72.92

TABtouch

72.94

74.49

74.49

74.49

74.49

74.49

71.43

71.43

William Hill

73.77

75.25

75.25

75.25

75.25

75.25

72.34

72.34

Average

73.45

73.80

73.70

73.41

73.06

73.14

72.21

72.39

The usual charts follow.

And on to look at the individual seats market from Sportsbet. This time I will start with the charts, before going to the miles of tables.

The next table is a tally of seats based on all favourites winning their seat (and sharing equal favourites).

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

0.0

81.5

2.0

2.0

1.0

63.5

0.0

0.0

A list of seats with equal favourites follows. The big news here is today's addition of Hindmarsh (SA) to the list.

%

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

2016 Favourite

Electorate

Hindmarsh (SA)

3.01

41.79

3.01

0.0

0.0

41.79

10.42

0.0

Coalition, Labor

Swan (WA)

3.29

45.69

5.34

0.0

0.0

45.69

0.00

0.0

Coalition, Labor

Eden Monaro (NSW)

1.77

48.23

1.77

0.0

0.0

48.23

0.00

0.0

Coalition, Labor

The complete list of Seat Odds is next. Looks like we have a new column with odds on the Palmer United Party for the first time. The funny thing here is the odds are for the seat of Herbert (Qld) which covers Townsville (where workers were sacked from Clive Palmer's Queensland Nickel). There are no odds for Clive in Fairfax.

$

1 Territory

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Liberal

National

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

Electorate

Adelaide (SA)

-

26.0

4.00

21.00

-

-

1.33

-

-

9.0

-

Aston (VIC)

-

34.0

1.05

26.00

-

-

6.00

-

-

-

-

Ballarat (VIC)

-

26.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Banks (NSW)

-

26.0

1.50

21.00

-

-

2.50

-

-

-

-

Barker (SA)

-

26.0

1.05

26.00

-

-

26.00

-

-

7.0

-

Barton (NSW)

-

26.0

8.50

26.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Bass (TAS)

-

26.0

1.25

26.00

-

-

3.75

-

-

-

-

Batman (VIC)

-

26.0

26.00

1.50

-

-

2.50

-

-

-

-

Bendigo (VIC)

-

26.0

6.00

26.00

-

-

1.10

-

-

-

-

Bennelong (NSW)

-

26.0

1.10

26.00

-

-

6.00

-

-

-

-

Berowra (NSW)

-

26.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Blair (QLD)

-

26.0

8.50

26.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Blaxland (NSW)

-

26.0

12.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Bonner (QLD)

-

26.0

1.50

26.00

-

-

2.30

-

-

-

-

Boothby (SA)

-

26.0

1.15

26.00

-

-

9.00

-

-

7.0

-

Bowman (QLD)

-

17.0

1.15

26.00

-

-

5.50

-

-

-

-

Braddon (TAS)

-

21.0

1.45

26.00

-

-

2.60

-

-

-

-

Bradfield (NSW)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Brand (WA)

-

26.0

8.50

21.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Brisbane (QLD)

-

26.0

1.62

21.00

-

-

2.20

-

-

-

-

Bruce (VIC)

-

26.0

4.00

26.00

-

-

1.22

-

-

-

-

Burt (WA)

-

34.0

2.50

-

-

-

1.50

-

-

-

-

Calare (NSW)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

16.0

-

Calwell (VIC)

-

26.0

11.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Canberra (ACT)

-

26.0

12.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Canning (WA)

-

26.0

1.10

26.00

-

-

6.00

-

-

-

-

Capricornia (QLD)

-

26.0

3.50

26.00

-

-

1.28

-

-

-

-

Casey (VIC)

-

26.0

1.17

26.00

-

-

4.50

-

-

-

-

Chifley (NSW)

-

21.0

16.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Chisholm (VIC)

-

26.0

4.20

21.00

-

-

1.20

-

-

-

-

Cook (NSW)

-

16.0

1.01

16.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Corangamite (VIC)

-

26.0

1.75

21.00

-

-

2.00

-

-

-

-

Corio (VIC)

-

16.0

16.00

16.00

-

-

1.02

-

-

-

-

Cowan (WA)

-

26.0

1.67

26.00

-

-

2.20

-

-

-

-

Cowper (NSW)

-

11.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Cunningham (NSW)

-

13.0

21.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Curtin (WA)

-

26.0

1.01

16.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Dawson (QLD)

-

26.0

1.20

26.00

-

-

4.00

-

-

-

-

Deakin (VIC)

-

26.0

1.75

15.00

-

-

2.00

-

-

-

-

Denison (TAS)

-

26.0

21.00

21.00

1.10

-

6.00

-

-

-

-

Dickson (QLD)

-

26.0

1.35

26.00

-

-

3.00

-

-

-

-

Dobell (NSW)

-

34.0

2.50

34.00

-

-

1.50

-

-

-

-

Dunkley (VIC)

-

41.0

1.58

31.00

-

-

2.40

-

-

-

-

Durack (WA)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Eden Monaro (NSW)

-

51.0

1.87

51.00

-

-

1.87

-

-

-

-

Fadden (QLD)

-

16.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Fairfax (QLD)

-

26.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Farrer (NSW)

-

12.0

1.01

21.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Fenner (ACT)

-

21.0

16.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Fisher (QLD)

-

17.0

1.10

21.00

-

-

7.50

-

-

-

-

Flinders (VIC)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Flynn (QLD)

-

16.0

1.25

34.00

-

-

3.50

-

-

-

-

Forde (QLD)

-

26.0

1.50

26.00

-

-

2.50

-

-

-

-

Forrest (WA)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Fowler (NSW)

-

16.0

21.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Franklin (TAS)

-

26.0

8.00

11.00

-

-

1.07

-

-

-

-

Fremantle (WA)

-

26.0

13.00

4.20

-

-

1.20

-

-

-

-

Gelibrand (VIC)

-

26.0

16.00

12.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Gilmore (NSW)

-

31.0

1.45

26.00

-

-

2.50

-

-

-

-

Gippsland (VIC)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Goldstein (VIC)

-

26.0

1.01

34.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Gorton (VIC)

-

26.0

16.00

16.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Grayndler (NSW)

-

26.0

17.00

3.35

-

-

1.30

-

-

-

-

Greenway (NSW)

-

26.0

5.00

26.00

-

-

1.12

-

-

-

-

Grey (SA)

-

26.0

1.02

26.00

-

-

7.00

-

-

16.0

-

Griffith (QLD)

-

34.0

8.50

23.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Groom (QLD)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

26.00

-

-

21.0

-

Hasluck (WA)

-

26.0

2.00

21.00

-

-

1.70

-

-

-

-

Herbert (QLD)

-

34.0

1.25

26.00

-

-

3.50

-

-

-

21.0

Higgins (VIC)

-

26.0

1.15

7.50

-

-

16.00

-

-

11.0

-

Hindmarsh (SA)

-

26.0

1.87

26.00

-

-

1.87

-

-

7.5

-

Hinkler (QLD)

-

15.0

1.15

26.00

-

-

5.00

-

-

-

-

Holt (VIC)

-

26.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Hotham (VIC)

-

26.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Hughes (NSW)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Hume (NSW)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

15.00

-

-

-

-

Hunter(NSW)

-

26.0

12.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Indi (VIC)

-

26.0

-

51.00

1.15

-

16.00

11.0

6.0

-

-

Isaacs (VIC)

-

26.0

8.50

21.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Jagajaga (VIC)

-

26.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Kennedy (QLD)

-

26.0

4.25

26.00

-

1.2

21.00

-

-

-

-

Kingsford Smith (NSW)

-

26.0

8.50

11.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Kingston (SA)

-

26.0

12.00

26.00

-

-

1.10

-

-

8.0

-

Kooyong (VIC)

-

26.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

La Trobe (Vic)

-

26.0

1.60

21.00

-

-

2.25

-

-

-

-

Lalor (VIC)

-

26.0

11.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Leichhardt (QLD)

-

12.0

1.30

26.00

-

-

3.20

-

-

-

-

Lilley (QLD)

-

26.0

8.50

21.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Lindsay (NSW)

-

34.0

1.35

34.00

-

-

2.60

-

-

21.0

-

Lingiari (NT)

51.0

26.0

3.00

21.00

-

-

1.30

-

-

-

-

Longman (QLD)

-

26.0

1.20

26.00

-

-

4.00

-

-

-

-

Lyne (NSW)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

26.00

-

-

-

-

Lyons (TAS)

-

16.0

1.55

26.00

-

-

2.35

-

-

-

-

Macarthur (NSW)

-

21.0

2.00

34.00

-

-

1.75

-

-

16.0

-

Mackellar (NSW)

-

-

1.01

26.00

12.00

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Macquarie (NSW)

-

26.0

1.50

26.00

-

-

2.20

-

-

-

-

Makin (SA)

-

26.0

16.00

26.00

-

-

1.08

-

-

7.0

-

Mallee (VIC)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Maranoa (QLD)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Maribyrnong (VIC)

-

26.0

11.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Mayo (SA)

-

21.0

1.10

31.00

-

-

31.00

-

-

5.0

-

McEwen (VIC)

-

26.0

3.40

21.00

-

-

1.30

-

-

-

-

McMahon (NSW)

-

26.0

11.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

McMillan (VIC)

-

21.0

1.02

26.00

-

-

11.00

-

-

-

-

McPherson (QLD)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Melbourne (VIC)

-

26.0

21.00

1.05

-

-

9.00

-

-

-

-

Melbourne Ports (VIC)

-

26.0

16.00

5.00

-

-

1.10

-

-

-

-

Menzies (VIC)

-

26.0

1.01

26.00

11.00

-

26.00

-

-

-

-

Mitchell (NSW)

-

16.0

1.01

16.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Moncrieff (QLD)

-

16.0

1.01

16.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Moore (WA)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

12.00

-

-

-

-

Moreton (QLD)

-

26.0

8.50

21.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

16.0

-

Murray (VIC)

-

16.0

-

26.00

-

-

21.00

2.1

1.6

-

-

New England (NSW)

-

26.0

1.45

26.00

2.60

-

26.00

-

-

-

-

Newcastle (NSW)

-

17.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.04

-

-

-

-

North Sydney (NSW)

-

21.0

1.01

21.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

O'Connor (WA)

-

16.0

1.01

21.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Oxley (QLD)

-

26.0

8.50

21.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Page (NSW)

-

26.0

1.80

16.00

-

-

1.95

-

-

-

-

Parkes (NSW)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

26.00

-

-

-

-

Parramatta (NSW)

-

26.0

5.00

26.00

-

-

1.10

-

-

-

-

Paterson (NSW)

-

17.0

3.75

26.00

-

-

1.25

-

-

-

-

Pearce (WA)

-

26.0

1.20

21.00

-

-

4.20

-

-

-

-

Perth (WA)

-

51.0

8.00

21.00

-

-

1.03

-

-

-

-

Petrie (QLD)

-

26.0

3.00

41.00

-

-

1.35

-

-

-

-

Port Adelaide (SA)

-

26.0

21.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

11.0

-

Rankin (QLD)

-

21.0

12.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Reid (NSW)

-

26.0

1.55

26.00

-

-

2.25

-

-

-

-

Richmond (NSW)

-

26.0

4.50

5.00

-

-

1.45

-

-

-

-

Riverina (NSW)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Robertson (NSW)

-

34.0

1.57

7.00

-

-

2.25

-

-

-

-

Ryan (QLD)

-

26.0

1.10

16.00

-

-

6.00

-

-

-

-

Scullin (VIC)

-

26.0

16.00

8.00

-

-

1.05

-

-

-

-

Shortland (NSW)

-

26.0

12.00

21.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Solomon (NT)

-

26.0

2.75

26.00

101.00

-

1.40

-

-

-

-

Stirling (WA)

-

26.0

1.44

26.00

-

-

2.55

-

-

-

-

Sturt (SA)

-

-

1.12

26.00

-

-

7.00

-

-

5.5

-

Swan (WA)

-

26.0

1.87

16.00

-

-

1.87

-

-

-

-

Sydney (NSW)

-

26.0

21.00

5.00

-

-

1.17

-

-

-

-

Tangney (WA)

-

-

1.01

21.00

12.00

-

26.00

-

-

-

-

Wakefield (SA)

-

26.0

16.00

26.00

-

-

1.08

-

-

6.0

-

Wannon (VIC)

-

12.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

-

-

Warringah (NSW)

-

9.0

1.06

26.00

-

-

21.00

-

-

8.0

-

Watson (NSW)

-

26.0

11.00

26.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Wentworth (NSW)

-

16.0

1.01

16.00

-

-

16.00

-

-

-

-

Werriwa (NSW)

-

26.0

6.00

34.00

-

-

1.10

-

-

-

-

Whitlam (NSW)

-

16.0

34.00

16.00

-

-

1.01

-

-

-

-

Wide Bay (QLD)

-

11.0

1.10

26.00

-

-

7.00

-

-

-

-

Wills (VIC)

-

41.0

31.00

4.50

-

-

1.16

-

-

-

-

Wright (QLD)

-

21.0

1.01

26.00

-

-

13.00

-

-

-

-

Followed by the complete list of seat probabilities (sorted by the Coalition's probability).

%

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

2016 Favourite

Electorate

Whitlam (NSW)

5.46

2.57

5.46

-

-

86.51

-

-

Labor

Wills (VIC)

2.14

2.83

19.48

-

-

75.56

-

-

Labor

Batman (VIC)

3.36

3.36

58.30

-

-

34.98

-

-

Green

Port Adelaide (SA)

3.17

3.92

3.92

-

-

81.51

7.48

-

Labor

Denison (TAS)

3.18

3.94

3.94

75.17

-

13.78

-

-

Independent

Cunningham (NSW)

6.62

4.10

4.10

-

-

85.19

-

-

Labor

Melbourne (VIC)

3.35

4.14

82.85

-

-

9.67

-

-

Green

Fowler (NSW)

5.45

4.15

4.15

-

-

86.26

-

-

Labor

Sydney (NSW)

3.37

4.17

17.53

-

-

74.92

-

-

Labor

Grayndler (NSW)

3.30

5.05

25.62

-

-

66.03

-

-

Labor

Wakefield (SA)

3.12

5.07

3.12

-

-

75.16

13.53

-

Labor

Melbourne Ports (VIC)

3.18

5.17

16.53

-

-

75.13

-

-

Labor

Makin (SA)

3.18

5.17

3.18

-

-

76.64

11.82

-

Labor

Scullin (VIC)

3.26

5.30

10.61

-

-

80.82

-

-

Labor

Gelibrand (VIC)

3.28

5.32

7.10

-

-

84.31

-

-

Labor

Corio (VIC)

5.35

5.35

5.35

-

-

83.95

-

-

Labor

Gorton (VIC)

3.33

5.42

5.42

-

-

85.83

-

-

Labor

Chifley (NSW)

4.15

5.45

4.15

-

-

86.26

-

-

Labor

Fenner (ACT)

4.15

5.45

4.15

-

-

86.26

-

-

Labor

Fremantle (WA)

3.24

6.48

20.06

-

-

70.22

-

-

Labor

Kingston (SA)

3.22

6.98

3.22

-

-

76.12

10.47

-

Labor

Hotham (VIC)

3.32

7.19

4.11

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Ballarat (VIC)

3.32

7.19

4.11

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Holt (VIC)

3.32

7.19

4.11

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Shortland (NSW)

3.32

7.19

4.11

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Jagajaga (VIC)

3.32

7.19

4.11

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Rankin (QLD)

4.11

7.19

3.32

-

-

85.39

-

-

Labor

Newcastle (NSW)

5.11

7.24

4.14

-

-

83.52

-

-

Labor

Blaxland (NSW)

3.34

7.24

3.34

-

-

86.07

-

-

Labor

Hunter(NSW)

3.34

7.24

3.34

-

-

86.07

-

-

Labor

Canberra (ACT)

3.34

7.24

3.34

-

-

86.07

-

-

Labor

Maribyrnong (VIC)

3.30

7.79

4.08

-

-

84.83

-

-

Labor

Lalor (VIC)

3.30

7.79

4.08

-

-

84.83

-

-

Labor

Calwell (VIC)

3.30

7.79

4.08

-

-

84.83

-

-

Labor

McMahon (NSW)

3.32

7.85

3.32

-

-

85.51

-

-

Labor

Watson (NSW)

3.32

7.85

3.32

-

-

85.51

-

-

Labor

Moreton (QLD)

3.16

9.65

3.91

-

-

78.15

5.13

-

Labor

Kingsford Smith (NSW)

3.21

9.81

7.58

-

-

79.40

-

-

Labor

Lilley (QLD)

3.33

10.18

4.12

-

-

82.38

-

-

Labor

Oxley (QLD)

3.33

10.18

4.12

-

-

82.38

-

-

Labor

Brand (WA)

3.33

10.18

4.12

-

-

82.38

-

-

Labor

Isaacs (VIC)

3.33

10.18

4.12

-

-

82.38

-

-

Labor

Blair (QLD)

3.35

10.26

3.35

-

-

83.04

-

-

Labor

Barton (NSW)

3.35

10.26

3.35

-

-

83.04

-

-

Labor

Griffith (QLD)

2.57

10.29

3.80

-

-

83.33

-

-

Labor

Franklin (TAS)

3.23

10.51

7.65

-

-

78.61

-

-

Labor

Perth (WA)

1.69

10.75

4.09

-

-

83.47

-

-

Labor

Bendigo (VIC)

3.34

14.46

3.34

-

-

78.87

-

-

Labor

Werriwa (NSW)

3.36

14.57

2.57

-

-

79.49

-

-

Labor

Parramatta (NSW)

3.24

16.86

3.24

-

-

76.65

-

-

Labor

Greenway (NSW)

3.29

17.10

3.29

-

-

76.33

-

-

Labor

Richmond (NSW)

3.34

19.32

17.39

-

-

59.95

-

-

Labor

Kennedy (QLD)

3.22

19.72

3.22

-

69.84

3.99

-

-

KAP (Bob Katter)

Chisholm (VIC)

3.32

20.57

4.11

-

-

71.99

-

-

Labor

Indi (VIC)

3.08

20.64

1.57

69.69

-

5.01

-

-

Independent

Adelaide (SA)

3.21

20.85

3.97

-

-

62.71

9.27

-

Labor

Bruce (VIC)

3.35

21.80

3.35

-

-

71.49

-

-

Labor

Paterson (NSW)

5.05

22.91

3.30

-

-

68.73

-

-

Labor

Capricornia (QLD)

3.36

24.98

3.36

-

-

68.30

-

-

Labor

McEwen (VIC)

3.35

25.59

4.14

-

-

66.92

-

-

Labor

Lingiari (NT)

4.81

27.59

3.94

-

-

63.66

-

-

Labor

Petrie (QLD)

3.38

29.32

2.15

-

-

65.15

-

-

Labor

Solomon (NT)

3.30

31.22

3.30

0.85

-

61.33

-

-

Labor

Dobell (NSW)

2.61

35.54

2.61

-

-

59.23

-

-

Labor

Burt (WA)

2.68

36.49

-

-

-

60.82

-

-

Labor

Macarthur (NSW)

3.93

41.29

2.43

-

-

47.19

5.16

-

Labor

Hindmarsh (SA)

3.01

41.79

3.01

-

-

41.79

10.42

-

Coalition, Labor

Hasluck (WA)

3.28

42.58

4.06

-

-

50.09

-

-

Labor

Swan (WA)

3.29

45.69

5.34

-

-

45.69

-

-

Coalition, Labor

Page (NSW)

3.29

47.51

5.34

-

-

43.86

-

-

Coalition

Eden Monaro (NSW)

1.77

48.23

1.77

-

-

48.23

-

-

Coalition, Labor

Deakin (VIC)

3.27

48.57

5.67

-

-

42.50

-

-

Coalition

Corangamite (VIC)

3.32

49.37

4.11

-

-

43.20

-

-

Coalition

Robertson (NSW)

2.35

50.81

11.40

-

-

35.45

-

-

Coalition

Cowan (WA)

3.40

52.98

3.40

-

-

40.22

-

-

Coalition

Brisbane (QLD)

3.32

53.31

4.11

-

-

39.26

-

-

Coalition

La Trobe (Vic)

3.33

54.09

4.12

-

-

38.46

-

-

Coalition

Lyons (TAS)

5.33

55.06

3.28

-

-

36.32

-

-

Coalition

Reid (NSW)

3.30

55.31

3.30

-

-

38.10

-

-

Coalition

Macquarie (NSW)

3.21

55.64

3.21

-

-

37.94

-

-

Coalition

Bonner (QLD)

3.26

56.58

3.26

-

-

36.90

-

-

Coalition

Dunkley (VIC)

2.20

57.21

2.92

-

-

37.67

-

-

Coalition

Banks (NSW)

3.34

57.83

4.13

-

-

34.70

-

-

Coalition

New England (NSW)

3.23

57.97

3.23

32.33

-

3.23

-

-

Coalition

Forde (QLD)

3.36

58.30

3.36

-

-

34.98

-

-

Coalition

Gilmore (NSW)

2.78

59.43

3.31

-

-

34.47

-

-

Coalition

Braddon (TAS)

4.10

59.44

3.31

-

-

33.15

-

-

Coalition

Stirling (WA)

3.31

59.68

3.31

-

-

33.70

-

-

Coalition

Lindsay (NSW)

2.39

60.13

2.39

-

-

31.22

3.87

-

Coalition

Leichhardt (QLD)

6.92

63.91

3.20

-

-

25.97

-

-

Coalition

Dickson (QLD)

3.34

64.36

3.34

-

-

28.96

-

-

Coalition

Herbert (QLD)

2.45

66.60

3.20

-

-

23.79

-

3.96

Coalition

Flynn (QLD)

5.31

67.93

2.50

-

-

24.26

-

-

Coalition

Bass (TAS)

3.36

69.96

3.36

-

-

23.32

-

-

Coalition

Sturt (SA)

-

71.09

3.06

-

-

11.37

14.48

-

Coalition

Longman (QLD)

3.31

71.82

3.31

-

-

21.55

-

-

Coalition

Dawson (QLD)

3.31

71.82

3.31

-

-

21.55

-

-

Coalition

Pearce (WA)

3.32

71.99

4.11

-

-

20.57

-

-

Coalition

Boothby (SA)

3.20

72.44

3.20

-

-

9.26

11.90

-

Coalition

Higgins (VIC)

3.22

72.78

11.16

-

-

5.23

7.61

-

Coalition

Hinkler (QLD)

5.68

74.02

3.27

-

-

17.03

-

-

Coalition

Casey (VIC)

3.33

74.07

3.33

-

-

19.26

-

-

Coalition

Mayo (SA)

3.90

74.44

2.64

-

-

2.64

16.38

-

Coalition

Warringah (NSW)

8.78

74.54

3.04

-

-

3.76

9.88

-

Coalition

Bowman (QLD)

5.12

75.70

3.35

-

-

15.83

-

-

Coalition

Wide Bay (QLD)

7.70

76.96

3.26

-

-

12.09

-

-

Coalition

Ryan (QLD)

3.27

77.26

5.31

-

-

14.16

-

-

Coalition

Grey (SA)

3.05

77.64

3.05

-

-

11.31

4.95

-

Coalition

Barker (SA)

3.18

78.67

3.18

-

-

3.18

11.80

-

Coalition

Canning (WA)

3.34

78.87

3.34

-

-

14.46

-

-

Coalition

Bennelong (NSW)

3.34

78.87

3.34

-

-

14.46

-

-

Coalition

Fisher (QLD)

5.12

79.13

4.14

-

-

11.61

-

-

Coalition

Aston (VIC)

2.48

80.24

3.24

-

-

14.04

-

-

Coalition

Calare (NSW)

6.82

81.02

3.15

-

-

3.90

5.11

-

Coalition

Groom (QLD)

6.96

82.65

3.21

-

-

3.21

3.97

-

Coalition

Menzies (VIC)

3.21

82.76

3.21

7.60

-

3.21

-

-

Coalition

Cowper (NSW)

7.69

83.77

3.25

-

-

5.29

-

-

Coalition

Cook (NSW)

5.31

84.08

5.31

-

-

5.31

-

-

Coalition

Moncrieff (QLD)

5.31

84.08

5.31

-

-

5.31

-

-

Coalition

Wentworth (NSW)

5.31

84.08

5.31

-

-

5.31

-

-

Coalition

Mitchell (NSW)

5.31

84.08

5.31

-

-

5.31

-

-

Coalition

McMillan (VIC)

4.11

84.71

3.32

-

-

7.85

-

-

Coalition

Farrer (NSW)

7.13

84.72

4.07

-

-

4.07

-

-

Coalition

O'Connor (WA)

5.38

85.15

4.10

-

-

5.38

-

-

Coalition

Riverina (NSW)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Hughes (NSW)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Mallee (VIC)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Wannon (VIC)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Flinders (VIC)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Gippsland (VIC)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Mackellar (NSW)

-

85.39

3.32

7.19

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Durack (WA)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

Maranoa (QLD)

7.19

85.39

3.32

-

-

4.11

-

-

Coalition

McPherson (QLD)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Moore (WA)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Forrest (WA)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Bradfield (NSW)

4.11

85.39

3.32

-

-

7.19

-

-

Coalition

Tangney (WA)

-

85.39

4.11

7.19

-

3.32

-

-

Coalition

Curtin (WA)

3.33

85.83

5.42

-

-

5.42

-

-

Coalition

Fadden (QLD)

5.42

85.83

3.33

-

-

5.42

-

-

Coalition

Wright (QLD)

4.13

85.86

3.34

-

-

6.67

-

-

Coalition

Lyne (NSW)

7.24

86.07

3.34

-

-

3.34

-

-

Coalition

Fairfax (QLD)

3.34

86.07

3.34

-

-

7.24

-

-

Coalition

Berowra (NSW)

3.34

86.07

3.34

-

-

7.24

-

-

Coalition

Kooyong (VIC)

3.34

86.07

3.34

-

-

7.24

-

-

Coalition

Parkes (NSW)

7.24

86.07

3.34

-

-

3.34

-

-

Coalition

North Sydney (NSW)

4.15

86.26

4.15

-

-

5.45

-

-

Coalition

Hume (NSW)

4.17

86.63

3.37

-

-

5.83

-

-

Coalition

Goldstein (VIC)

3.37

86.75

2.58

-

-

7.30

-

-

Coalition

Murray (VIC)

5.00

88.11

3.08

-

-

3.81

-

-

Coalition

Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

2016 Favourite

Electorate

Grayndler (NSW)

3.30

5.05

25.62

-

-

66.03

-

-

Labor

Batman (VIC)

3.36

3.36

58.30

-

-

34.98

-

-

Green

Melbourne (VIC)

3.35

4.14

82.85

-

-

9.67

-

-

Green

Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

2016 Favourite

Electorate

Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

%

Any Other

Coalition

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

2016 Favourite

Electorate

New England (NSW)

3.23

57.97

3.23

32.33

-

3.23

-

-

Coalition

Indi (VIC)

3.08

20.64

1.57

69.69

-

5.01

-

-

Independent

Denison (TAS)

3.18

3.94

3.94

75.17

-

13.78

-

-

Independent

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members

%

Any Other

Green

Independent

KAP (Bob Katter)

Labor

Liberal

National

Nick Xenophon Team

PUP

Electorate

Murray (VIC)

5.00

3.08

-

-

3.81

38.10

50.01

-

-

Indi (VIC)

3.08

1.57

69.69

-

5.01

7.29

13.36

-

-

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.

TPP 2013

TCP 2013

2013 Outcome

2016 Favourite

Seat

Batman (VIC)

ALP 21.0%

ALP 10.6% v GRN

Labor

Green

Burt (WA)

LIB 6.1%

-

Coalition

Labor

Capricornia (QLD)

LNP 0.8%

-

Coalition

Labor

Eden Monaro (NSW)

LIB 2.9%

-

Coalition

Coalition, Labor

Fairfax (QLD)

-

PUP 0.03% v LNP

Palmer United

Coalition

Hasluck (WA)

LIB 6.0%

-

Coalition

Labor

Hindmarsh (SA)

LIB 1.9%

-

Coalition

Coalition, Labor

Macarthur (NSW)

LIB 3.3%

-

Coalition

Labor

Petrie (QLD)

LNP 0.5%

-

Coalition

Labor

Solomon (NT)

CLP 1.4%

-

Coalition

Labor

Swan (WA)

LIB 7.3%

-

Coalition

Coalition, Labor

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

Monday, May 23, 2016

Today's Newspoll of 1409 respondents estimated the national two-party preferred (TPP) vote shares as 49 per cent for the Coalition and 51 for Labor. This had little effect on my standard aggregation model, which finds the new Newspoll series has a pro-Labor house effect of around one percentage point.

The aggregated estimation of national TPP voting intention, assuming the house effects across polling houses cancel each other out, has the Coalition on 49.9 per cent and Labor on 50.1.

If we anchor the aggregated TPP series to the poll outcome at the last election, the national TPP estimate is 50.6 per cent for the Coalition and 49.4 for Labor. In round terms, the house effects of the combined polls are worth around half a percentage point to the Coalition.

The comparison chart of the medians from these two aggregations follows.

There is of course a problem with the anchored model. The published TPP estimates up until the 2013 election were based on preference flows at the 2010 election. Since the 2013 election they have used the preference flows at the 2013 election. The 2013 election saw a sizable change in preference flows compared with previous elections. The interesting question is whether the change in preference flows at 2013 was a response to Mr Abbott and therefore temporary or something structural and permanent in the nation's preference intentions.

In the next two charts, I estimate the TPP series from
an aggregation of primary votes. Both charts assume the house effects across polling houses cancel each other out (they sum to zero). In the first chart I take the 2013 preference flows and in the second chart I use the 2010 preference flows. If we revert to the 2010 preference flow pattern at the 2016 election, it would be worth around a percentage point to the Coalition.