Officially election campaigns in this country last three weeks but this one seems to have gone on for many months already, frequently hitting a level of silliness that seems unparalleled until we recall past levels of silliness. It would not be a good idea to predict results as opinion polls seem very close and there are several imponderables. But it would not be unreasonable to look over the parties and their attitudes and policies (if one can call them that).

This is going to be a make or break election for UKIP and its leader, Nigel Farage. The party has done reasonably well in the last couple of years, coming top in the elections for the European Parliament, though on a very low turn-out, and acquiring two MPs though neither of the seats was an actual victory but a re-election of a sitting member under different colours. Will they be able to build on that? The opinion polls are not particularly sanguine as UKIP’s support wavers between 13 and 15 per cent, which is likely to fall once the campaign starts in real earnest and is, in any case, spread across the country. The Liberal-Democrats may be getting worse results in the polls but their support is more concentrated in certain areas.

Unfortunately, from our point of view, UKIP has more or less abandoned any discussion of Britain’s membership of the European Union or exit from it. Even when their candidates speak with fishermen they express shock and disgust at cuts in quotas without bothering to go into any depth on the subject that is the common fisheries policy.

As far as the EU in general is concerned, UKIP is concentrating on two issues, one is immigration, the basics of which are a little more complicated than they make out and the other is the referendum, which they, officially, would like as soon as possible, regardless, it sometimes seems, of whether we are likely to win it or not. It is, in fact, the likelihood or otherwise of the referendum (promised by the Conservatives, not promised by Labour and semi-promised by the Liberal-Democrats) that will mean there will be no real discussion of the European Union and Britain’s role in it during the election campaign. The emphasis will be on possible renegotiations and whether they are possible and on when a referendum might take place (not, we can confidently predict, this year).

We would prefer to see some ideas about the way forward for Britain within the EU and discussions of possible withdrawal, its method and possible consequences. In connection with that we would like to see a serious attempt by the main parties to create a fisheries policy, perhaps on the lines of the one Owen Patterson put together when he was Spokesman on the subject and which has long ago been removed from the Conservative Party website. In any case, it would need updating. In view of the general shelving of the EU as an issue with nothing more than a discussion of a referendum this is unlikely to happen either across the UK in general or in Scotland in particular.

There remains the question of the SNP. At various times before the Scottish referendum this blog discussed the party’s views and understanding of fisheries and came to the conclusion that it was lacking in any sense of reality. This does not seem to have changed since the referendum in which their main policy plank – “an independent Scotland within the EU” – was rejected without taking away, it would seem, from the party’s electoral popularity. As things stand they are likely to be the leading party in Scotland but that does not mean that the much touted coalition with Labour will happen. Certainly, the possibility has been denied several times by Ed Miliband, the Leader of the Labour Party and has not, precisely, been welcomed by the SNP’s leadership though the occasional tantalizing hint has been thrown out.

If this article is a little gloomy it is because one cannot help feeling gloomy as one surveys the electoral scene. Will the election change anything? As far as Britain’s role and membership of the European Union and, consequently, of the common fisheries policy, no, it will not. The Conservative Party has promised an IN/OUT referendum and that makes an important difference between the two leading parties. If they form the next government we shall have to start preparing seriously for that referendum; if not, we shall have to carry on arguing our case, in particular about fishing. Either way, the first thing FAL and other organizations of that kind will have to do after the election is to put together a viable fisheries policy that depends on us leaving the CFP and that can be and will have to be presented to the various parties.