Numbers rarely lie: Barnwell's early assessment of next season

First, the Texans are primed for an immediate comeback toward the middle of the NFL pack, even if the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage theyll run out at quarterback might preclude them from being a playoff contender. Virtually every metric I can find suggests they were an underrated and unlucky team last year, and thats without considering how they repeatedly juggled quarterbacks and quit on their coach. With even average luck next year, Houston should be a 7-9 or 8-8 team. And if it has a few bounces break its way  picture Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt wishboning Andrew Luck  the Texans could very well be next years surprise playoff team.

Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs!

I know a lot of outsiders are saying the Texans are primed for a "Chiefs like rebound," or, like this article suggests, a 7-9 or 8-8 season, but I believe a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

The first thing is, minimal injuries and no injuries to key players (Cushing anyone?). This team just doesn't have the depth anymore after 3 years of losses in FA and mediocre drafts. I don't think they could sustain a rash of injuries and win more than 5 games.

Secondly, the Rookies and FA pickups, especially the starters, will have to play lights out. The way it looks now there will probably be anywhere from 3 to 6 Rookie starters when this team starts the regular season (Clowney, Su'a-Filo, Nix, Fiedorowicz, Savage, and Prosch). I don't expect Savage or Prosch to start, but you never know what can happen.

Third, the ball has to bounce their way. Like the article stated, the Texans were one of the unluckiest teams last year, and after watching those games I can certainly attest to that fact! They can't have that kind of year again and win more than a handful of games.

So, here's to a healthy/great playing/lucky year for the Texans and a return to the playoffs!

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I am optimistic that Sua'fila and Nix will better as rookies as should Clowney. We should have better QB, both lines and LBs. Fiedo could be better and Prosch should also and I think we will see more plays with a FB leading.

Actually more to unpack than I originally thought but really the key stats from last year were the overall negative turnover rate and the lack of turnovers the defense generated. the team could fix a lot of the first issue by just doing better in getting the ball away from other teams.

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And mixing coverages instead of playing man coverage very play will certainly help the secondary with those turnover opportunities. As predictable as the Kubiak offense could be, it was Wade's defense that was insufferably predictable.

Our poor friends in Houston head this list, too. Remember: The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance. Maybe things are better with a healthy Arian Foster running out the clock instead of trolling cat owners. Well see. Atlanta, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are all teams without effective running games that struggled to finish deep into the fourth quarter, too.

Only reason this team may reach .500 or more is the soft schedule. Match them up against upper echelon squads and they will get stomped out.

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This indicates otherwise:

The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance.