State's high-speed rail plan is up in the air

Published 4:00 am, Monday, April 12, 2010

Conceptual view of high speed rail traveling along the Bay, just south of San Francisco.
Ran on: 11-08-2008
An artist's rendering shows a high-speed train on tracks along the bay south of San Francisco.
Ran on: 10-21-2009
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Ran on: 10-21-2009
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Conceptual view of high speed rail traveling along the Bay, just south of San Francisco.
Ran on: 11-08-2008
An artist's rendering shows a high-speed train on tracks along the bay south of San Francisco.
Ran ... more

Photo: Nc3d, Courtesy To The Chronicle

State's high-speed rail plan is up in the air

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Is it a high-speed rail ride to the future or a Bay Bridge boondoggle times 10? That's what lawmakers are wondering as more and more questions arise about the plan to build a multibillion-dollar bullet train between San Francisco and Los Angeles.

"I'm all for high-speed rail, but I want it to be high-speed rail done right," says state Sen. Joe Simitian.

Simitian has plenty of reasons to be concerned. Not only will the rail line go right through his Peninsula district, but also he chairs the Senate budget subcommittee that oversees the $9 billion in voter-approved bonds for the project.

In addition to worries about how many backyards will be torn up for the line, he and other key legislators are asking question's about the High Speed Rail Authority's business plan - which remains murky at best.

For example, no sooner had voters approved the bond package than the initial $33.6 billion price estimate jumped to $42.6 billion because the authority had failed to account for inflation. And that cost could climb even higher if the rail goes underground through the Peninsula, as many communities are now requesting.

Then there is the estimated ticket price for a trip from L.A. to San Francisco, which has jumped to $105 one way - making the line much less competitive with the price of an airline ticket.

There are also questions being raised about the bullet train's ridership projections.

For example, San Francisco is expected to have 24,100 bullet riders a day, a realistic number given the business ties between San Francisco and Los Angeles. But does anyone really think that the town of Gilroy will have 4,700 bullet train riders a day? Or that Redwood City will have 3,900, or Merced 5,300?

One of the biggest fears, however, is that the state will not be able to keep the explicit promise made to voters that they would not be on the hook if the finances fall short.

"Private-sector investors are going to want a guarantee," Simitian said. "It's hard to imagine how that guarantee will be provided."

Then there is the route itself - which is already raising hackles in the South Bay and Peninsula, where a consortium of leaders from Palo Alto, Belmont, Menlo Park, Atherton and Burlingame is raising protests about a 120-mph bullet train racing past their backyards or on an overhead line that will split the communities.

The towns want the line dropped below street level.

Richard Katz, who sits on the High Speed Rail Authority, admits the two business plans submitted so far need work, but said "you have to understand that for years the authority had only a skeletal staff working for voter approval."

In other words, the authority was more involved with selling the concept of high-speed rail than the nuts and bolts of building it.

Katz said better business numbers and a clearer outline of the actual route will come into focus as a full staff is brought on board.

But even if the deal doesn't pencil out for high-speed rail, Katz said the plan is being structured so that the voters' $9 billion will be used to upgrade existing rail lines and routes. That way, he said, the money will be put to the public's benefit whatever the outcome.

Simitian, however, isn't ready to hop on board.

"Their argument is essentially, 'Don't worry, you will still get a half dozen improvements to existing rail,' " he said. "But the voters were told we are building a statewide system."

Box score: For those wondering how the A's move play is going, all we can say is check out the calendar of Major League Baseball reps who were in town for the team's Opening Day:

San Jose Mayor Chuck Reedgot a sit-down lunch with MLB's president and chief operating officer Bob DuPuy. Oakland Mayor Ron Dellumsgot a phone call. The beleaguered town of Fremont, which had a yearlong courtship with the team, didn't get anything.

Indeed, insiders tell us the tug-of-war over the A's appears to be coming down to a choice between the ball club's current Oakland home and San Jose, which is actively trying to lure the team south.

Word is, baseball is looking very favorably on Oakland's two proposedwaterfront sites but questions whether the city has the corporate sponsors needed to fill a new ballpark's skyboxes. It's a challenge that has Oakland boosters scouring the East Bay for enough Chevrons, Safeways and Cloroxes to make the town competitive with the Apples and Ciscos of Silicon Valley.

Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks have shot off a 39-page letter raising questions about the impact a new A's ballpark would have on their game days.

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