Outlook categories based on amount of reports not severity

Before the first watch or warning is issued, weather forecasters issue severe storm outlooks to give advanced severe weather warnings. The Storm Prediction Center is the branch of the National Weather Service that not only issues severe weather watches, but severe weather outlooks.

Originally these outlooks were not designed to be shared with the public, but to help coordinate severe weather forecasts with other National Weather Service offices. Today severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center are shown by broadcasts meteorologists to show the areas that severe weather is expected in several days in advance.

There are three categories the Storm Prediction Center uses in their severe weather outlooks: slight, moderate and high. Here is what you need to know about these risk categories:

Outlooks are not precise forecasts.

Just because you're in an outlook area, it does not guarantee you will have severe storms.

Not all thunderstorms produce severe weather.

Outlooks assume storms will form, but sometimes storms do not.

Outlook categories are based primarily on the number of damaging storm reports, not just the severity of the storms.

A moderate risk does not always mean a tornado outbreak.

You can still have strong tornadoes outside of a moderate or high-risk areas.

Mention of large hail does not mean it is likely, but just that it is possible in the outlook area.