Featured Research

Global Sea Levels Likely To Rise Higher In 21st Century Than Previous Predictions

Date:

February 20, 2002

Source:

University Of Colorado At Boulder

Summary:

New calculations by a University of Colorado at Boulder researcher indicate global sea levels likely will rise more by the end of this century than predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001. The projected sea-level rise is due to a revised estimate of the ice melt from glaciers, said geological sciences Emeritus Professor Mark Meier.

Share This

New calculations by a University of Colorado at Boulder researcher indicate global sea levels likely will rise more by the end of this century than predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001.

Related Articles

The projected sea-level rise is due to a revised estimate of the ice melt from glaciers, said geological sciences Emeritus Professor Mark Meier.

Meier and CU-Boulder colleague Mark Dyurgerov have collected new data showing the world’s glaciers and ice caps have exhibited significant ice loss in the 20th century, which has accelerated since 1988. That loss has contributed to at least 20 percent of the observed rise in sea level, said Meier.

"Some glaciers around the world now are smaller than they have been in the last several thousand years," he said.

"The rate of ice loss since 1988 has more than doubled," said Meier, a researcher and former director of CU-Boulder’s Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research. Dyurgerov also is an INSTAAR researcher.

Meier said the IPCC report might have underestimated the wastage of glaciers and ice caps around the word -- excluding Greenland and Antarctica -- for several reasons. The IPPC did not include increases in ice wastage since the late 1980s, an apparent increase in the sensitivity of ice wastage to both temperature and precipitation, and a probable increase in melting from small, cold glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, he said.

In addition, new data from colleagues at the University of Alaska show that huge glaciers on the West Coast of Alaska and northern Canada are wasting rapidly, said Meier. The melting of these large glaciers has contributed roughly 0.14 millimeters per year in sea rise over the long-term, according to calculations by Meier and Dyurgerov, jumping to more than 0.32 millimeters per year during the last decade.

The IPCC, which estimated global ice wastage of only 0.3 millimeters per year, probably underestimated the contribution of glacier disintegration to sea-level rise because little data on the large, maritime glaciers in Alaska was available, said Meier. But this region is the largest contributor to sea-level rise, he said.

"The sensitivity of glacier melt to temperature rise depends largely on precipitation, which in some ‘glaciered’ areas like southern coastal Alaska has been greatly under-measured," said Meier. "The large glaciers of Alaska and adjacent Canada currently are contributing about half of the rate of global ice loss, exclusive of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets," said Meier. "But they contain only 17 percent of the glacier ice area."

The new data suggests the IPCC calculation for the 21st century -- a total of 0.16 to 0.36 feet -- was an underestimate, said Meier. He calculated that glacier melting could contribute 0.65 feet or more to sea level this century.

The IPCC estimated that other processes such as ocean warming would cause an additional 0.36 feet to 1.4 feet of sea-level rise by the year 2100, Meier said.

"These estimates in sea-level rise may seem small, but a 1-foot rise in sea level typically will cause a retreat of shoreline of 100 feet or more, which would have substantial social and economic impacts," Meier said.

Meier said that in the United States, some large coastal cities like Houston "are not much above sea level now." He also said island nations such as Seychelles off the West Coast of Africa and Kiribati southwest of Hawaii are within a meter of being inundated by sea rise.

In addition, sea rise of only 1 meter in Bangladesh would put one-half of the nation underwater, displacing more than 100 million people.

University Of Colorado At Boulder. "Global Sea Levels Likely To Rise Higher In 21st Century Than Previous Predictions." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 20 February 2002. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/02/020220075633.htm>.

University Of Colorado At Boulder. (2002, February 20). Global Sea Levels Likely To Rise Higher In 21st Century Than Previous Predictions. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 3, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/02/020220075633.htm

University Of Colorado At Boulder. "Global Sea Levels Likely To Rise Higher In 21st Century Than Previous Predictions." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/02/020220075633.htm (accessed March 3, 2015).

More From ScienceDaily

More Earth & Climate News

Featured Research

Mar. 3, 2015 — Attendance at schools exposed to high levels of traffic-related air pollution is linked to slower cognitive development among 7- to 10-year-old children in Barcelona, according to a new ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — While studying a ground-nesting bird population near El Reno, Okla., a research team found that stress during a severe weather outbreak of May 31, 2013, had manifested itself into malformations in ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — Researchers studied quartz from the San Andreas Fault at the microscopic scale, the scale at which earthquake-triggering stresses originate. The results could one day lead to a better understanding ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — The 3-D printing scene, a growing favorite of do-it-yourselfers, has spread to the study of plasma physics. With a series of experiments, researchers have found that 3-D printers can be an important ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — Researchers have developed a new way of rapidly screening yeasts that could help produce more sustainable biofuels. The new technique could also be a boon in the search for new ways of deriving ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — For almost a century, scientists have been puzzled by a process that is crucial to much of the life in Earth's oceans: Why does calcium carbonate, the tough material of seashells and corals, ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — Major cities in the UK are falling behind their international counterparts in terms of their use of smart technologies, according to a new study. The research has found that smart cities in the UK, ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — To simulate chimp behavior, scientists created a computer model based on equations normally used to describe the movement of atoms and molecules in a confined space. An interdisciplinary research ... full story

Mar. 3, 2015 — Rather than just waiting patiently for any pollinator that comes their way to start the next generation of seeds, some plants appear to recognize the best suitors and 'turn on' to increase the chance ... full story

Featured Videos

Looted and Leaking, South Sudan's Oil Wells Pose Health Risk

AFP (Mar. 3, 2015) — Thick black puddles and a looted, leaking ruin are all that remain of the Thar Jath oil treatment facility, once a crucial part of South Sudan&apos;s mainstay industry. Duration: 01:13
Video provided by AFP

Related Stories

Oct. 14, 2014 — The climate is getting warmer, the ice sheets are melting and sea levels are rising -- but how much? The report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 was based on ... full story

Feb. 19, 2013 — Sophisticated computer modelling has shown how sea-level rise over the coming century could affect some regions far more than others. The model shows that parts of the Pacific will see the highest ... full story

June 24, 2012 — Even if global warming is limited to two degrees Celsius, global mean sea level could continue to rise, reaching between 1.5 and four meters above present-day levels by the year 2300, with the best ... full story

ScienceDaily features breaking news and videos about the latest discoveries in health, technology, the environment, and more -- from major news services and leading universities, scientific journals, and research organizations.