Snapshot: Mexico's Largest Voting Bloc Young, Disillusioned

Story Highlights

76% of Mexicans aged 18 to 39 lack confidence in national government

82% in youngest voting bloc do not trust honesty of elections

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Ahead of one of the most important elections in Mexico's modern history on Sunday, the majority of voters are disenchanted with the country's political establishment. However, the age group that makes up about half of all eligible voters -- those younger than age 40 -- are more distrusting than older Mexicans. About three in four Mexicans (76%) in this youngest voting bloc say they are not confident in their national government, vs. six in 10 (61%) in the 50 and older bloc.

Mexican Voters Lack Confidence in National Government

Among voting-age adults in Mexico

Yes, confident

No, not confident

%

%

Aged 18 to 39

22

76

Aged 40 to 49

22

74

Aged 50+

33

61

Gallup World Poll, 2017

Majorities in all age groups lack confidence in the national government, almost assuring at least some sort of change after the polls close. However, if this youngest bloc turns out to vote this weekend, it could completely reshape the country's politics. More than 3,000 positions are at stake at the local and national level, including the presidency.

Much of the distrust Mexicans have in the country's leadership is rooted in concerns about government corruption. The percentage of Mexicans viewing government corruption as widespread soared after 2014, when now-outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto became embroiled in a carousel of scandals. The issue will likely be on most voters' minds on Sunday, but it may spur a stronger desire for change from the youngest voters, among whom 83% see endemic corruption throughout their government.

Mexican Voters Perceive Widespread Government Corruption

Among voting-age adults in Mexico

Corruption widespread

Corruption not widespread

%

%

Aged 18 to 39

83

15

Aged 40 to 19

79

17

Aged 50+

73

16

Gallup World Poll, 2017

Lacking confidence in their national government and believing it is rife with corruption, most voting-age Mexicans also place little faith in the honesty of their elections. This is particularly true for those in the youngest voting bloc, which includes many Mexicans who are eligible to vote for the first time in this general election. More than eight in 10 (82%) in the youngest group lack confidence in their electoral process, compared with about seven in 10 (71%) of those aged 50 and older.

Mexican Voters Lack Confidence in Honesty of Elections

Among voting-age adults in Mexico

Yes, confident

No, not confident

%

%

Aged 18 to 39

16

82

Aged 40 to 49

15

81

Aged 50+

23

71

Gallup World Poll, 2017

Takeaway: Mexico's electorate en masse places little faith in the current political establishment, which it sees as highly corrupt and ineffectual. The most dissatisfied group of them all is the largest and youngest voting bloc -- which also has been the least likely to turn out in recent past elections. But if they do on Sunday, they could change the course of the country for the generations that follow them.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted June 8-July 8, 2017, in Mexico. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±3.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.