Friday, November 30, 2012

France's Minister of Industry Arnaud Montebourg made the headlines this week by saying the following:

Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg, a member of the governing Socialist party, caused controversy last week when he said that the Indian company, which employs close to 20,000 people in France, should leave after it said it would have to close down a factory.

The French government announced on Thursday that it could nationalize the factory in question, with backing from an unnamed businessman.

The news raised the specter of the nationalizations of the early 1980s, which were instigated by Hollande’s predecessor Francois Mitterrand.

Montebourg told CNBC after a meeting with trade unions in Paris: “Barack Obama's nationalized. The Germans are nationalizing. All countries are nationalizing. I've also noticed the British nationalized 6 banks.”

What Monsieur Montebourg is talking about, of course, is Obama's nationalizing the financial services industry via the draconian controls of Dodd-Frank and of course GM, which was delivered to union ownership at a cost of a mere $80 billion that will not be recouped for decades, if at all.

Interesting that Montebourg easily recognizes what most of the American people and certainly the vast majority of the media have yet to admit...that he's a socialist and a redistributionist whose heading us towards European socialism.

The unemployment rate continued its steady rise, reaching 11.7% in October, up from 11.6% the month before and 10.4% a year ago.

A further 173,000 were out of work across the single currency area, bringing the total to 18.7 million.

Royal Bank of Scotland's Alberto Gallo: "The real issue is we're in a two-speed Europe"

The respective fortunes of northern and southern Europe diverged further. In Spain, the jobless rate rose to 26.2% from 25.8% the previous month, and in Italy it rose to 11.1% from 10.8%.

In contrast, unemployment in Germany held steady at 5.4% of the labour force, while in Austria it fell from 4.4% to just 4.3%.

Our president, of course, is following the policies of southern Europe..massive spending and borrowing, high taxes to discourage economic activity, zero austerity in the name of 'growth' (which actually means government make-work hiring) crippling energy policies and large roadblocks of governmental bureaucracy to stifle business and job creation.

In addition, of course, we have the U.S. military to pay for and a mush larger problem with illegal immigration and its attendant social welfare costs Europe doesn't have, at least not anything near to America's.

If this headlong plunge to insolvency isn't stopped, there's only one way it can end. And it won't be pretty.

Egypt's new constitution, if you can call it that was rushed through by the Islamist and Salafi majority today. Virtually all of the Christian and more liberal members simply left and did not vote.

There are still huge demonstrations taking place in Cairo and Alexandria against President Mahmoud Morsi assuming what amounts to dictatorial powers, but just as with Mubarak, the key is which way the army jumps.

And also as with Mubarak, the army is waiting to see if President Obama gives them a signal on which way to go. The carrot in this case is the $1.5 billion in funding the U.S. gives the Egyptian military; Egypt's army, like Pakistan's owns numerous private businesses and revenue sources that depend on it.

The constitution itself states that sharia will be the main source of legislation, and also mandates that Al-Azhar, Egypt's fiqh or Islamic school of jurisprudence, must be consulted on any matters related to Islamic law. In other words, oversight of legislation by Islamic clerics. Some other interesting bits include:

An article that says that the state will protect "the true nature of the Egyptian family ... and promote its morals and values," which pretty much establishes state control censorship the contents of broadcasting, books and films.

An article that says that the state will control science, the arts and literature to implement them 'in a way that serves Egyptian society'. Goodbye to music, any arts depicting the human form or anything related to Egypt's pagan past, or any science that doesn't strictly conform to sharia norms.

Nothing that gives women equal rights with men. In fact, the new 'constitution' states specifically that a woman can be held accountable for her duties towards her husband and family if outside work or any public role doesn't meet her lord and master's approval. And speaking of which, there is no official ban on slavery, just like in sharia.

An article that bans insulting or defaming Islam or Mohammad, but is deliberately vague about what constitutes an insult, which gives it a pretty wide range.

An article that preserves the right of the military to try civilians inclosed door military tribunals.

In other words, a totalitarian Islamist state.The only way it won't happen is if the U.S. signals the military that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood need to be history...in which case, we might see a military junta instead of an Islamist dictatorship. Given his serious jones for Islamists, I rate the chances of President Barack Obama sending those signals as slim and none.

The new constitutional draft is to be sent to Morsi fo rhis signature tomorrow, when he will sign off on it and decide on a date for a referendum, possibly in mid-December.

There's absolutely no chance it won't pass when it does, in spite of the crowds in Tahrir Square.

In spite of President Obama's continued snow job about how he's 'open to negotiation' to avert the coming 'fiscal cliff' , the stark reality is that he and Harry Reid have no intention of doing anything unless they get everything they want ... a huge $1.6 trillion tax increase (and don't think its going tobe limited to 'the rich'), an additional demand for $50 billion in infrastructure spending and new powers to keep raising the credit card limit (AKA, the debt ceiling) ad infinitum.

Spending cuts? Are you joking?

So when President Obama complains that he's 'tired of negotiating with himself' he's simply lying. He's actually not negotiating at all, the way the term is normally used.The House republicans have put a modest tax increase on the table. They've gotten nothing in exchange form this president except 'not good enough'.

I never thought Mitch McConnell had much of a sense of humor, but he proved me wrong when he laughed out loud at when Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner outlined the administration proposal for averting the fiscal cliff...a hard line on huge tax increases and no real solid proposals for spending cuts.

I doubt they'll be any either. After all, this is the administration that couldn't even produce a budget in four years.

This president and his minions absolutely can't get their heads around spending cuts, because to do so would go against their entire worldview and ethos, that all things come from government. It's like asking a junkie with a ready supply of dope paid for by someone else to quit cold turkey.

Another reason it won't happen is that regardless of the dislocation to the economy and the misery it's going to cause for the barely affluent middle class the president claims to be so fond of, he sees it as good politics. Because he feels he can successfully blame the Republicans for it, and given the partisan media, it's not a bad gamble on his part.

This would be the time for Majority leader John Boehner - or somebody - to go public and make a decent speech to the American people explaining this in terms they can relate to and telling them exactly why the Republicans simply can't go along with this. Because it's unsustainable.

I rate the odds on him doing that successfully at maybe twenty percent.

If I were the majority leader, the main thing I would be concerned with is putting the results of whatever happens solely on the president. There's no 'negotiating' with him. Advance a proposal that's iron clad and calls for a fair measure of spending cuts. That way, I could at least say I tried one last time.

When President Obama turns it down, I'd just end it. Let him take the onus for what comes next.

The entire debt ceiling deal that went down the last time this happened was ridiculous anyway, as I said at the time. Basta. No Mas.

If the House Republicans have any leverage, let the president come to them. If not, let's go over that fiscal cliff...but let's make sure there are no Republican fingerprints on it by telling the American people in clear terms why it happened. At this point, deference and courtesy goes out the window.

Either that, or I'd even consider the idea of having every Republican in the House and Senate vote present along with a strong and uncompromising statement of disavowal warning the country exactly what's coming and letting President Obama have exactly what he wants.

Alea acta est...the Council has spoken, the votes have been cast, and the results are in for this week's Watcher's Council match up.

The Obama Administration's empowerment of the Muslim Brotherhood has had some interesting ramifications, among them the changes in the status of long standing U.S. clients and allies in the region.

This week's winner, Joshuapundit's The Next Islamist Domino - Jordan takes a look at a very under the wire U.S. client that could very well be th enext state to fall to Islamist..perhaps even with the Obama Administration's encouragement. Here's a slice:

Jordan and King Abdullah appear to be next on the Islamist hit list. And the Obama administration seems to be sending signals that it tacitly approves.

Jordan has been at a tipping point for quite some time, partly because it's a U.S client state (which doesn't sit well with a significant part of its population whom consider King Abdullah an American tool) and partly because of its peculiar history and tribal aspect.

There have been protests with Muslim Brotherhood participation for two years now, but the most recent outbursts were large riots across the Kingdom that spread across the Kingdom and called openly for King Abdullah's ouster. In spite of brutal suppression by the King's security police and numerous arrests, the unrest, referred to as the "The November Intifada" is only growing.

Adding to the turmoil were remarks on November 19th by Deputy State Department Spokesman Mark Toner, who stated at a press conference that there was "thirst for change" in Jordan and that the Jordanian people had "economic, political concerns," as well as "aspirations." Needless to say, this sent a clear signal to King Abdullah's foes and to America's remaining allies in the region that just like Egypt's Mubarak, the Obama Administration is willing to cut Abdullah loose in favor of an Islamist regime.

The unrest was ostensibly over an end to government subsidies that have led to increases in fuel prices and other staples,but it's been festering for quite some time. Here are the two main factors involved.

Jordan, like the other Arab nations of Egypt, Tunisia and Syria without oil wealth had been keeping things quiet by subsidizing the price of food staples and cooking oil. The skyrocketing prices of these items on the world market combined with the rising economies of countries like India and China have made this an impossible solution to continue. Where it used to be Indians and Chinese who suffered when food prices rose dramatically, now it's the Arabs without oil wealth who are at the bottom of the chain because of their dysfunctional economies, and it's no coincidence that with the exception of Bahrain and Libya where there were tribal issues involved, all of the Arab Spring revolts have been in countries without oil wealth. It's also worth noting that in the only the two countries with oil resources that experienced Arab Spring unrest, the Bahrain revolt failed miserably, and that the one in Libya only succeeded because of extensive U.S. assistance.

To cut it down to one a short paragraph, no matter what you're hearing from the usual suspects, the Arab Spring isn't about a hankering for democracy. It's about the price of goods and food.And the Islamists are capitalizing on this (with the help of an Islamist-friendly American administration) by telling the Arab Street that all it's going to take to fix things is a return to hard line Islamism and sharia.

The second factor is similar to the one operating in Syria, longtime rule by a privileged minority caste. In Syria, it's the Shia Alawites ruling over a predominantly Sunni population. In Jordan, it's Bedouins ruling over Palestinians, or Qurayshi Arabs, to give them their proper name.

In our non-Council category, the winner was Sultan Knish with War Is The Answersubmitted by The Noisy Room.

See you next week! Don't forget to tune in on Monday AM for this week's Watcher's Forum, as the Council and their invited guests take apart one of the provocative issues of the day and weigh in...don't you dare miss it. And don't forget to like us on Facebook and follow us Twitter..'cause we're cool like that!

Thursday, November 29, 2012

I have just been informed of an upcoming temporary job offer that may interest some of my readers.

During the upcoming fiscal cliff negotiations, President Obama will not be in Washington talking to the grubby politicians on Capitol Hill. Instead, he'll be in Hawaii, enjoying a 20 day vacation that will cost taxpayers an estimated $4 million plus.

But the taxpayer's bad news could be your good news, because there are 10 openings I've been made aware of for part time temporary 'domestic special assistants'.

The duties consist of assisting the Obamas and their special guests in what are called 'standard domestic specialties'. Special consideration is given for demonstrated experience in dishwashing, ironing, laundering, shoe polishing, fetching and carrying, experience in the hotel or service industry,nanny or valet services or similar experience.

All successful applicants will be expected to pass a one-day course called 'proper Presidential etiquette and address'. According to the materials I've seen, the course consists of a lot of common sense items like how to bow and curtsey properly, not to speak to the president or especially Mrs. Obama unless you're directly addressed, not turning your back on any of the Obamas as you exit a room, rules on discretion, whom you serve first at the table, that sort of thing. A cheerful, willing and obliging disposition is an absolute must.

The job is classified as temporary part time, so there are no benefits, but the White House doctors and nurses will be in attendance to take care of any minor kitchen mishaps and such. Room and board is also provided. You won't actually be living with the Obamas of course, but in a dormitory-type set up known as 'The Quarters' which I'm sure is quite comfortable and is in close proximity, connected via buzzer and intercom.

I'm also informed that while these jobs are temporary, those who perform diligently have a splendid opportunity to receive references and preferences for full time positions working either for the First Lady, the President, or various czars and White House functionaries as similar positions open up.

You can apply at White House.Gov...but remember, all references will be thoroughly checked (no Republicans or those whom have ever voted Republican need apply).

As First Lady Michelle once said, there's no need to worry about grubby private enterprise when you have a chance to go into public service. Hurry!

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

At least spokeshole Jay Carney is being honest for a change. They really don't care, since they know the media will cover for them. And of course, they can always hurl charges of racism at anyone who doesn't drink the Kool-Ade.

I guarantee you, if this had happened with a Republican in the White House, the press would be in full Watergate frenzy.

However, sooner or later, just as with Watergate, someone will rat someone else out, something else will leak from one of the disgruntled intelligence professionals who've been maligned, and we're going to find out a lot more about this.

The resolution, according to my sources also delineates 'Palestine' as all of Gaza plus all of Judea and Samaria (AKA the West Bank), including half of Jerusalem as its capitol.

Efforts from other nations like the U.S. to urge amendments or to head this off in favor of negotiations failed miserably.

The PA's unelected dictator Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to address the General Assembly in New York tomorrow, November 29th.You can expect a bravura performance of bombast and outright falsehood similar to his last appearance. It will go over well, and there's no doubt that the votes are there to pass it. You could probably get a majority vote in the UN General Assembly that Jews have horns on the heads.

Needless to say, this abrogates two treaties the Palestinian Authority signed, the Oslo Accords and the Road Map, but the PA has already stated on many occasions that as far as their concerned, Oslo served its purpose and they're no longer bound to it. They got land, and Israel got worthless paper.

The big plus for the PLO when they get observer status will be the ability to sue Israel in the International Criminal Court (ICC) for 'war crimes'. Israel, like the U.S., does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC but a guilty verdict in that particular kangaroo court would be recognized by some European countries, so the idea is to demonize and delegitimize Israel further.

In case you were wondering, that's the end game behind the PA digging up Arafat's rotting, AIDS-ridden corpse and having PA-paid pathologists report that he might have been poisoned. The PA has already said that if they have 'evidence' of this, they will sue Israel in the ICC.

Britain, which has never been particularly friendly to Israel will probably vote in favor of the resolution and France, whose socialist government owes its election largely to Muslim votes has already said it definitely will.

Germany has said it will not, and Canada is not only sending its foreign minister John Baird to vote against the resolution in person, but Canadian PM Stephan Harper took the principled step of personally informing Mahmoud Abbas that if the Palestinians proceeded with this attempt to hijack the peace process, Canada would cease funding the PA and might even break diplomatic relations entirely, as they did with Iran earlier.

There are also reports that members of the Obama Administration consider this a slap at President Obama and have also threatened to cut funding, but I'll believe that when I see it.

The sensible thing, something Israel should have done decades ago, is to mark out its own borders and annex the land in Judea and Samaria in areas B and C along the lines Israel chooses including the Jordan Valley. This would put the vast majority of those people calling themselves Palestinians within the boundaries of the new 'Palestine', in Area A.

It should also trigger an official Israeli announcement that the Oslo era is over, along with any notion of occupation.'Palestine' is now free to follow its own destiny, with an end to all security co-operation,work permits for Palestinian citizens, tax remittances, and trade relations which will now be renegotiated from scratch.

But then Abbas, after all, has nothing personally to lose. He's on the way out like the rest of the Fatah Old Guard, with their Jordanian passports in hand and comfortable retirement ahead in the Emirates or Europe with the money they stole.

The Palestinian Authority itself is broke and unable to pay its vastly inflated government payroll, and any private foreign investment is severely limited because virtually every iota of economic activity there involves a monopoly headed by a well connected Fatah member with his hand out. Twenty years after Oslo, and in spite of the PA receiving more per capita foreign aid than any developing nation in history, there are still plenty of people living in refugee camps, while Abbas and the rest of the Fatah junta have become millionaires.

At this point, the PA's donors in the EU and America have their own fiscal problems and can no longer really afford the luxury of supporting the PA the way they used to.

It looks like the world's most successful international con game may be reaching its end.

The remaining portion of 'Palestine' will likely be annexed and folded back into Jordan once Hamas takes over and the Muslim Brotherhood boots King Abdullah out.

Welcome to the Watcher's Council, a blogging group consisting of some of the most incisive blogs in the 'sphere, and the longest running group of its kind in existence. Every week, the members nominate two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council.Then we vote on the best two posts, with the results appearing on Friday.

You can, too! Want to see your work appear on the Watcher’s Council homepage in our weekly contest listing? Didn’t get nominated by a Council member? No worries.

Simply head over to Joshuapundit and post the title a link to the piece you want considered along with an e-mail address ( which won't be published) in the comments section no later than Monday 6PM PST in order to be considered for our honorable mention category. Then just return the favor by creating a post on your site linking to the Watcher’s Council contest for the week when it comes out on Wednesday morning.

It's a great way of exposing your best work to Watcher’s Council readers and Council members. while grabbing the increased traffic and notoriety. And how good is that, eh?

Monday, November 26, 2012

The latest rage among Republicans and Democrats alike is the Hispanic vote.

The Democrats smirk that the muscle of the Latino vote is going to make them a permanent majority and make the Republicans extinct, while GOP establishment types (and even some self described conservatives) pontificate that the election of 2012 is a message for the Republican to embrace amnesty for illegal aliens, to try to outdo the Democrats in gimmees and in raising taxes to pay for it and to drop any vestige of social conservatism.

One of these articles (in American Enterprise, no less) by Charles Murray points out that in his view the argument that Latinos naturally skew towards social conservatism is bogus..and as proof he offers another non-white group that went primarily for Barack Obama..Asians, who are another minority that 'should have voted as natural social conservatives' :

My thesis is that the GOP is in trouble across the electoral board because it has become identified in the public mind with social conservatism. Large numbers of Independents and Democrats who are naturally attracted to arguments of fiscal discipline, less government interference in daily life, greater personal responsibility, and free enterprise refuse to vote for Republicans because they are so put off by the positions and rhetoric of social conservatives, whom they take to represent the spirit of the “real” GOP.

This isn't much of a thesis, frankly. First, Asians are an extremely diverse group..everyone from Chinese, Vietnamese and Koreans to Filipinos, Pakistanis and Indians ( a fairly diverse group in themselves). The figures cited make no mention of which Asians we're talking about. I would bet my dollar to your dime that Koreans voted substantially different in the last election than Pakistanis, for example.

Since they're not broken down but lumped together as a group, the best figure available is that Americans of Asian descent constitute 3% of the electorate, about 6, 450,000 voters.

So, what percentage of the Asian electorate actually voted? I couldn't find those figures but let's be very generous and say it was a 40% turnout. This would have been huge given that this was a very low turnout election. 73% of the Asians that actually voted went went for Obama, so we're talking about 1,883,400 votes mainly concentrated in Blue states like California, New York, New Jersey and Michigan ( if we're talking Pakistanis and Asian Muslims). That's a grand total of 28% of the available Asian electorate if we're talking a 40% turnout. It's probably a lot less, especially when you break it down by individual groups.Barack Obama probably did better among Muslim than any other demographic except blacks.In any event, that means that 72% of the Asian electorate is either Republican or available.

Now, that got me thinking along the same lines when it comes to the Hispanic vote.

Hispanics, for example, are 9.07 of the current electorate ( 23.7 million voters). Of those, only 12 million or so of that 23.7 million voted and they went for Barack Obama by 67.5%, a whopping 8 million of the 12 million whom voted ..or just about one third of the entire Hispanic votes available.

That means two thirds of the current Hispanic vote is either Republican or up for grabs.

That's what all the verbiage and punditry is about....a grand total of less than 3.5% of the entire electorate, much of it already living in Blue States like California, New York and New Jersey. And that doesn't even account for voter fraud in places like California where there are no voter ID laws.

In other words, the great Hispanic tidal wave was more of a ripple when it came to 2012.

This is not to suggest that conservatives ignore Asian and Latino voters. But the way to go after them is not to treat them as 'groups' and pander to them. That sort of race based approach is what Democrats do. A message of fairness, conservative principles and economic populism clearly articulated is what's going to appeal to them, as I explain here. The ones it doesn't appeal to aren't going to be won over by 'Democrat-lite'. They'll vote for the real thing every time.

Not only that, but Hispanics being the fastest growing demographic in America, a certain number of them are going to embrace conservative principles as time goes on and they get more established..and so will their children provided they're offered that choice properly in a common sense way. Because, in real life, conservatism works. Statist redistributionism ala' Obama never has.

As for the real message of 2012...could it be, just maybe that rather than Revenge against the Evil White Man or social conservatives, this was an election where Mitt Romney stupidly allowed himself to be demonized and painted as an uncaring plutocrat by the Obama Administration (with a lot of help from a partisan media), and refused to challenge the president openly and forcefully on his many failures and discrepancies?

Could it be that Mitt Romney just wasn't that articulate at explaining his positions and conservatism in general?

Could it be, just maybe, that a lot of people didn't particularly care for Obama, but stayed home because they didn't care for Mitt Romney? After all, over three million self-identified Republicans did.

Nah, couldn't be. Pundits gotta eat, Jackasses gotta bray...and the GOP establishment that in it's heart of hearts want to be Democrat-lite and be well accepted on the DC cocktail circuit and the Sunday shows needs to point fingers.

As he points out, Mitt Romney would have had to win a huge majority of the Hispanic vote to win in 2012...but a relatively small increase of 4 per cent of the white vote would have given him the win. There were 5 million white voters who stayed home because Romney didn't resonate with them or their concerns.

And 3 million of them,or 60% were registered Republicans.

Want to bet a lot of them would turn out for an articulate conservative spokes person?

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced today that he is quitting politics. He's going to stay on as Israel's defense minister until Israel's new government is seated after the January 22nd elections.

From a practical political standpoint, it's a pretty easy call.

Independence, the tiny centrist faction Barak created when he broke away from the Labor Party was unlikely to meet the vote percentage threshold to have any seats in the Knesset, and since Likud and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu agreed to merge and run as a unified slate, there wasn't any room for him on that list.

At age 70, and after years of public service in the IDF and government with constant life and death decisions, he might very well feel like it's simply time to retire and smell the roses.

Jordan and King Abdullah appear to be next on the Islamist hit list. And the Obama administration seems to be sending signals that it tacitly approves.

Jordan has been at a tipping point for quite some time, partly because it's a U.S client state (which doesn't sit well with a significant part of its population whom consider King Abdullah an American tool) and partly because of its peculiar history and tribal aspect.

There have been protests with Muslim Brotherhood participation for two years now, but the most recent outbursts were large riots across the Kingdom that spread across the Kingdom and called openly for King Abdullah's ouster. In spite of brutal suppression by the King's security police and numerous arrests, the unrest, referred to as the "The November Intifada" is only growing.

Adding to the turmoil were remarks on November 19th by Deputy State Department Spokesman Mark Toner, who stated at a press conference that there was "thirst for change" in Jordan and that the Jordanian people had "economic, political concerns," as well as "aspirations." Needless to say, this sent a clear signal to King Abdullah's foes and to America's remaining allies in the region that just like Egypt's Mubarak, the Obama Administration is willing to cut Abdullah loose in favor of an Islamist regime.

The unrest was ostensibly over an end to government subsidies that have led to increases in fuel prices and other staples,but it's been festering for quite some time. Here are the two main factors involved.

Jordan, like the other Arab nations of Egypt, Tunisia and Syria without oil wealth had been keeping things quiet by subsidizing the price of food staples and cooking oil. The skyrocketing prices of these items on the world market combined with the rising economies of countries like India and China have made this an impossible solution to continue. Where it used to be Indians and Chinese who suffered when food prices rose dramatically, now it's the Arabs without oil wealth who are at the bottom of the chain because of their dysfunctional economies, and it's no coincidence that with the exception of Bahrain and Libya where there were tribal issues involved, all of the Arab Spring revolts have been in countries without oil wealth. It's also worth noting that in the only the two countries with oil resources that experienced Arab Spring unrest, the Bahrain revolt failed miserably, and that the one in Libya only succeeded because of extensive U.S. assistance.

To cut it down to one a short paragraph, no matter what you're hearing from the usual suspects, the Arab Spring isn't about a hankering for democracy. It's about the price of goods and food.And the Islamists are capitalizing on this (with the help of an Islamist-friendly American administration) by telling the Arab Street that all it's going to take to fix things is a return to hard line Islamism and sharia.

The second factor is similar to the one operating in Syria, longtime rule by a privileged minority caste. In Syria, it's the Shia Alawites ruling over a predominantly Sunni population. In Jordan, it's Bedouins ruling over Palestinians, or Qurayshi Arabs, to give them their proper name.

Here's a little history.

Back in 1923, Britain decided to solve the Palestine question of fulfilling their League of Nations Mandate to create a Jewish state in Palestine by partitioning the territory. They set 79% of it aside as the Arab part of Palestine, everything east of the Jordan River, and removed those Jews who had settled in that area. Everything west of the Jordan was supposed to be the Jewish State, as set down in the San Remo Agreement in 1924 between Britain and the League that modified the terms of the original mandate.

The British then attempted to kill two birds with one stone by placing the present king's grandfather, also named Abdullah on the throne as Jordan's ruler. This original King Abdullah was a Bedouin, the son of the Hashemite Sharif of Mecca Hussein, a British client. His Jordanian subjects, however, were Quraysh or town Arabs, an entirely different group who today identify themselves as Palestinians.

Thus, what was supposed to have become the Arab Palestinian state became a place where almost 80% of the residents were saddled with what amounted to an imported foreign aristocracy that quickly took charge of the leading positions in the military and government and reserved these positions for themselves.

This has manifested itself over the years in the assassination of the original King Abdullah in 1951 on the orders of Palestinian leader Haj-Amin al Husseini and in Yasser Arafat and the PLO's attempt to overthrow Abdullah's successor, King Hussein in 1970. That attempt was ruthlessly suppressed by King Hussein's Bedouin troops in his Arab legion, but tension and divisions between Jordan's Bedouin ruling class and their Palestinian subjects has remained.Even today, the Hashemite Bedouin monarchy is trying its best to even the odds by arbitrarily depriving Palestinians of Jordanian citizenship who have held it for years.

The $1 billion in direct U.S. aid King Abdullah receives helps,but it's not enough by itself to bridge the financial gap, and has only served to demonize the regime to the Muslim Brotherhood and many of the Palestinians. Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood affiliated groups in neighboring Syria up the ante.

While the Muslim Brotherhood does not have full control of the Jordanian opposition to King Abdullah, (Palestinians, especially those in refugee camps are a significant factor), the Muslim Brotherhood and its salafist allies are the only group that is well financed and organized enough to win any future elections and take control of a new Jordanian regime if the King falls.

If this goes as I foresee and King Abdullah's regime is overthrown, it will almost certainly be replaced by an Islamist, Muslim Brotherhood led regime similar to Egypt's, with the full connivance and backing of the Obama Administration.

The current Arab occupied parts of Judea and Samaria will likely merge with Jordan, since they will almost certainly be under Hamas rule in the near future and there's no deal Israel can offer the Palestinians the Palestinians would accept that doesn't severely compromise Israel's security . The U.S. will have lost yet another ally in the region. No matter how much 'daylight' President Obama wishes to create between Israel and America to appeal to his new Islamist friends, congress is not likely to go along with it completely and the Islamist regimes themselves are not pro-American in the least.

Whatever loyalty they have will be dependent on how much baksheesh in the form of aid America is willing to cough up, and even that is not likely to suffice for long barring a complete break with Israel.Don't be surprised if Egypt and an Islamist Syria once again becomes a Russian clients.

Israel will almost certainly steer a much more independent course and find new allies as their massive oil and gas finds come online next year, most likely China.The downgrading of the US-Israel alliance by the Obama Administration will be seen as a major foreign policy error in the future, since it will also send a message to the Saudis and the GCE countries that America is an unreliable ally. Since President Obama remains hostile to domestic energy creation from oil, coal and gas, expect oil prices to go up and take the prices of food and goods along with them.

The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan may survive de jure a bit longer, but they're essentially history. Israel has a worthless piece of paper, the Arabs have the land, and in Jordan's case, the land and the water. So there's no real need to pretend anymore.

The Middle East will devolve back to pre '67 status, with Israel surrounded by hostile Muslim states. The only difference is that instead of secular, quasi-Marxist leaders, the leaders will be hard line Islamists.

The creation of an Islamist Caliphate in the Arab world was something Hassan al-Banna, who created the Muslim brotherhood in the 1920's only dreamed about.The Obama Administration has made considerable progress in making that dream a reality.

Every week on Monday morning , the Council and invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day. This week's question:What's Your Reaction To The Gaza ceasefire?

The Razor: I’m more sanguine about it than JoshuaPundit, and agree with Haaretz (paywalled at http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-s-pillar-of-defense-achieved-its-goals.premium-1.479674#) that Israel achieved its two strategic goals of reinstating the cease-fire with Hamas and stabilizing the peace with Egypt. Add in the whacking of a few senior Hamas leaders and the success of Iron Dome shooting down the rockets with the mild reaction of the cliché “Arab Street” and I believe it will be hard to paint Israel as the loser in this episode although I’m sure the Leftist media will struggle to portray it that way.

Hamas was clearly acting as Iran’s proxy to draw attention away from its Syrian quagmire. What’s particularly interesting to me is the failure of Hezbollah to join the fray given its reliance on the mullahs in Teheran for funding. Syria is definitely draining the pond it swims in, and the quiet on Israel’s northern frontier says a lot, as does the relatively muted response in the Arab world. The protests in Egypt started as anger against the Morsi regime for failing to support Hamas against Israel and then brokering the peace, but they quickly morphed into protests against the regime’s power grab that has given me a serious case of ear worm with The Who’s classic “Won’t Get Fooled Again,” particularly the line “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” Obama clearly thinks he bought Morsi which I personally doubt; I just hope for America’s sake he stays bought.

But back to the topic, if the missiles begin to sail over the border, Israel can just whack another Hamas leader and the cycle will start again. Israel has clearly learned from its past episodes dealing with Hamas and in my view comes out of this episode stronger than it was when it went into it.

GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD: Like being hit with a nerf base ball bat. You know something just happened yet are semi sorta unsure exactly what the heck it was.

Disappointment.

At terrible risk of appearing to be a war monger, the Strip Cease Fire seems to only delay the inevitable clash betwixt Little Satan and the now illegit HAMAS regime (no elections in nigh unto a decade? Please). And to what end? A Lo Down Ho Down is looming as all of Little Satan"s Near Abroad begins to exhibit bloody borders - Syria, The Strip, Jordan.

Methinks next time - and there will be a next time - Little Satan should strike 1st and quiz later with a ground assault - faster and heavier than Cast Lead. Easier said than done no doubt - calling up reserves is a pretty obvious signal and alerts friends, frenemies and enemies what may be unfolding.

"To accomplish this Israel will need to invade Gaza and remain in place. It will have to kill or imprison thousands of terrorists, send thousands more packing for Sinai, and then spend years patrolling the streets of Gaza and arresting terrorists just as it does today in Judea and Samaria."

Israel was presented by President Obama with two bad choices and simply chose the less bad one, which amounts to the status quo ante bellum..except that a good part of Hamas' Iranian missile armory was destroyed...for now. There will be a next round, and the Israelis know it, which is why so many of them opposed this ceasefire even though their loved ones' lives were on the line.You can't appreciate what a people's army the IDF is unless you've seen first hand how Israelis react to it.

Another part of the fallout that isn't appreciated here (and certainly not by our president) is the way this is going to be seen as a victory over the Jews in the Arab world. It will make Israel's enemies a great deal bolder next time.

It also had an effect on our relationship not only with Israel but with what's left of our other allies in the region. They just received fresh evidence that America is not to be depended upon. According to my sources, the Israeli government is particularly livid over what went down.

They had a similar experience with France on the eve of the '67 war. Expect them to chart a much more independent course in the future, and to look for new allies, especially as their massive oil and gas discoveries come online next year. That's not so good for America on a lot of levels.

The Noisy Room:My reaction to the Gaza ceasefire has several facets. My initial response was that it was a horrible mistake militarily. But I realize, that there may be much more to Netanyahu's response than meets the eye. I am sure he has a strategy that is not obviously apparent.

Evidently he was strong armed into a Hobson's Choice. Israel wanted to invade with ground forces and completely eliminate Hamas from Gaza. This sounds like a fine plan... enter the US and Egyptian meddlers. They were okay with the original plan, but they wanted to attach a rider. Upon succeeding in this strategy, Israel was to turn over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority. Additionally, Obama insisted that Israel declare a Palestinian State in Gaza, including also Judea and Samaria, which of course would necessitate removing all Israeli citizens from those areas. And the whole shooting match would be turned over to Abbas. So, in summary, "Go ahead and win this, as long as you take this poison pill too."

The second option Israel is offered is a hudna, a temporary ceasefire and fragile peace, but Obama and Morsi are calling on Israel to stop all attacks on Gaza, including targeting of individuals. They are also requiring all Palestinian factions to stop hostilities against Israel from Gaza, including rocket fire and attacks along the border. But this won’t stop smaller factions from their campaign of Islamic terror. Israel is going to relax border restrictions with Gaza, which means that weapons smuggling will step up in intensity. Hamas has blatantly stated that they will keep arming their forces.

This is only a brief reprieve. War with Iran and Hamas is coming. Israel may be regrouping for the fight to come. I really hope they've got some card up their sleeve no one has seen yet. Otherwise they are in a world of hurt and the pain is just beginning. The US will not have their back and Israel will have to fight alone. At least they will have God on their side.

The Independent Sentinel: My reaction is that this has been a win for terrorists. They now have a better sense of what Israel can do and our President appeared to be more terrorist appeaser than Israel supporter.

Iran and Hamas get to talk about making Israel scream in pain. Egypt, obviously not much of a help in the negotiations, was praised by the administration for being much of a help.

Morsi responded to the accolades by making himself into a dictator - it's temporary he claims.

Hamas won't stop making and smuggling weapons though the daily missiles being lobbed into southern Israel have stopped for now. We now know their missiles have a longer reach.

In the aftermath, protests against Israel are taking place throughout the world.

Israel seems to stand alone and I am very concerned for Israel and the US.

President Obama's failed foreign policy continues FORWARD.

Oh, but we have peace, don't we? Only until Gaza replenishes their weapons. Perhaps they are really preparing, along with others, for a massive attack on Israel if she tries to bomb Iran's nuclear sites.

Other than that, Hillary and Barack did a fine job.

Rhymes With Right: What do I think of this truce? Frankly, I think it is ill-advised and likely inimical to the best interests of Israel -- but then again, hasn't every truce with terrorists that has ever been forced on Israel by those who are loath to allow it to defend itself from those who would destroy the island of civilization in the midst of the Islamic world?

For those who think I am being too harsh, let's consider things which have happened in just these last few days.

1) The Egyptian leader -- anointed as the guarantor of peace by Barack Obama -- has made himself the de facto dictator of his country, and is now facing massive unrest as a segment of his people rise up in protest. How long will he stay in power? Who knows -- and is he likely to be the sort of leader who will, in fact, carry out his own commitments to rein in Hamas?

2) Hamas itself has continued with its bellicose statements regarding its eventual intention of destroying the Jews. Does this sound like a peace partner likely to honor the truce? When one considers the first violation came within an hour of the truce going into effect, the answer should be obvious.

3) Iran is already sending vessels ready to resupply Hamas with newer, better weapons to fight Israel -- consistent with the drumbeat of genocidal anti-Semitism tha thas been part and parcel of the Islamic Republic's rhetoric for the last thirty years.

4) For all Barack Obama mouthed the right words in support of Israel's right to defend itself against Hamas, his track record is such that it is impossible to believe he will hold the Arabs' feet to the fire regarding the terms of the truce -- but will require Israel to observe every jot and tittle of it. In this he is little different from all his predecessors, but his previous hostility towards Israel leads me to believe that he will not be so forgiving of Israel taking defensive action as have been previous presidents.

Israel should not have signed off on this agreement -- at least not until every political and military leader of Hamas was dead and Gaza swept clean of every weapon more advanced than a sling or a bow. And if that meant more casualties among the civilian population in Gaza, their blood would rightly be reckoned as being on the hands of the Hamas terrorists who chose to war with a neighbor that has for over six decades asked for nothing more than peaceful coexistence with its Arab neighbors. But as Israel is the only civilized participant in the conflict, its leaders felt obliged to exercise restraint -- a policy which I fear will mean more innocent blood will flow in the streets of Israel when Hamas again renews its terror campaign.

Well, there you have it.

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum. And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it.And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y'know?

Friday, November 23, 2012

Apparently some Egyptians were less than pleased about Egyptian leader Mohamed Morsi's taking on what amounts to dictatorial powers.

Just yesterday, Morsi announced that any challenges to his decrees, laws and decisions were banned.
"The president can issue any decision or measure to protect the
revolution," said the decree, which further stipulated that, “The
constitutional declarations, decisions and laws issued by the president
are final and not subject to appeal."

In other words, Mubarak all over again, complete with the 'emergency laws' the howling mobs in Tahrir Square were so exercised about during the Mubarak era. Only this time, sanctified by Allah, the Muslim Brotherhood, the spiffy new sharia-licious legalisms the Islamist and Salifist dominated parliament is going to write.

There were wide spread demonstrations in Cairo, Port Said and Alexandria, where a Muslim Brotherhood office was trashed.

Needless to say, the regime did exactly what Mubarak used to do in the good old days. They rounded up counter demonstrators to break heads and the Egyptian police behaved with their customary approach to anyone who got particularly in the way.Of course, this is now a Muslim Brotherhood regime, so neither President Obama or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is going to say anything remotely like 'It's time for Morsi to go.'

President Obama has an executive order, backed up by a fair amount of existing U.S. law that prohibits fund raising for terrorism or terrorist groups here in the United States.

But as reporter Patrick Poole ferreted out, apparently an exception was made back in July for a group known as the Syrian Support Group headed by long time Obama associates with hard line Islamist backgrounds and pre-existing ties to fundraising for named terrorist groups:

In July, the Obama State Department approved an extraordinary license for a newly formed U.S.-based organization, the Syrian Support Group, to raise money for Syrian rebels – overriding the administration’s own sanctions and Obama’s Executive Order against such activity.

This is especially true because two related figures with the organization, Louay Safi and Mazen Asbahi, have previously been tied to terror fundraising efforts by Islamic organizations identified by the U.S. government in federal court as fronts for the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood front Poole is talking about, of course is Hamas. And the court trial he's talking about is the Holy Land Foundation trial, where a whole slew of Ikhwan fronts like CAIR, The Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC), The North American Islamic Trust (NAIT), the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) and others were named an unidicted co-conspirators.

After the original trial was concluded successfully, a second round of trials was scheduled to go after the 'unindicted co-conspirators'.

That trial would have been a slam dunk, because the Islamist group's attorneys appealed to have their names removed and not only lost the appeal but ended up causing government evidence to be unsealed that connected them even more directly with the Hamas fundraising and material support for a terrorist group.However, the Obama Department of Justice filed Disinclination to Prosecute briefs in these cases, letting the Islamists walk free.

Which brings us to the Syrian Support Group, the Syrian National Council and two long time Obama Administration associates heading these grouips, Louay Safi and Mazen Asbahi:

The attorney who actually incorporated the Syrian Support Group and applied for the State Department OFAC license was a Chicago attorney, Mazen Asbahi. When running for president in 2008, Barack Obama appointed Asbahi to head Muslim outreach for his campaign – a position he held for only a short period of time.

After his appointment, several media outlets noted that Asbahi had previously served as a board member of the Allied Assets Advisors Fund, a division of the North American Islamic Trust (NAIT). NAIT was identified by federal prosecutors as a front for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Holy Land Foundation trial in 2007 and 2008 and named unindicted co-conspirator in the case. Prosecutors entered into evidence hundreds of wire transfers showing that NAIT was actually the conduit used by the Holy Land Foundation to transmit millions of dollars to the terrorist group Hamas.

Also joining Asbahi on the board of Allied Assets Advisors was Jamal Said, a Chicago-area imam who was personally named unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land trial. A February 2004 article on the front page of the Chicago Tribune reports on Imam Said raising $50,000 in one night for Sami al-Arian, the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in North America.

Asbahi came under fire when news of his leadership role with NAIT, his affiliation with Jamal Said, and his connections with other Muslim Brotherhood front groups was noted by several media outlets. While he claimed that he only served for several weeks with the NAIT organization (a claim he never provided evidence for) he nonetheless resigned his position with the Obama campaign, though he continued to work “unofficially” in support of Obama’s election.

Interesting..just a couple of hardline Islamist lawyers from Chicago, who seem like they have some kind of relationship with President Obama, a little history.

Louay Safi, now the head of the Syrian National Council is even more interesting. The SNC is the official Syrian resistance group, who also are in charge of the Syrian Free Army, the chief armed resistance group fighting against Assad.Both groups are heavily dominated by Islamists and Salafists, most notably from the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

As Poole relates, Safi has quite a history. At one time, he was one of the Pentagon's top Islamic 'advisers', but that ended abruptly:

Safi’s relationship with the Pentagon ended in 2010 after it was revealed in media reports that he was teaching classes on Islamic theology to deploying troops headed for Afghanistan. What concerned some observers was Safi’s ties to terrorism, which included his being named unindicted co-conspirator in the Sami Al-Arian terrorism support trial, being caught on federal wiretaps in conversations with top terror officials, and having his office raided in 2002 by U.S. Customs in a wide-spread terror finance investigation.

Those revelations prompted 13 members of Congress to send a letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates demanding an end to the use of Safi as an approved instructor. By year’s end, Safi’s role with the Pentagon had come to an end.

As Poole reveals, we essentially are funding a hard line jihadi group headed by a man with clear ties to terrorism..and with another man tied to the Brotherhood and Islamist terrorism being given free reign to raise money here in America with zero accounting of where that money actually goes.

And apparently both men have excellent access directly to the White House.

The Council has spoken, the votes have been cast, and the results are in for this week's Watcher's Council match up.

I and my Council comrades hope all of you had a simply wonderful Thanksgiving. But beware of the Turkey's revenge!!

Democrats and the Left like to call themselves 'pro-choice', something that's always fascinated me. Being statists and fairly totalitarian in outlook, the only thing they really are pro-choice about is abortion on demand. They're rabidly anti-choice about pretty much everything else..whom you may hire to work for you, what constitutes a marriage, whether you may own firearms, what you may eat,drink or smoke,where you may send your children to school..in fact, pretty much everything else but terminating a pregnancy.

To understand the workings of American politics, you have to understand this fundamental law: Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil. – Charles Krauthammer

It’s interesting to be hated. I’m a white male, married to the same woman for over two decades. We love rescuing animals in the US and working on conservation and health projects in Africa. Together we don’t make enough to qualify for the top 2% of wage earners, but we are uncomfortably close. She works 50+ hours a week in health care, has had her life threatened twice for failing to prescribe narcotics, and daily faces patients who act like their ordering off the ala cart menu at a Chinese Restaurant, “I’ll have the MRI with antibiotics I don’t really need, oh and a side of Vicodin.” I work at a job that I enjoy for similar hours but as a contractor don’t know where I’ll be working from one month to the next. The only job security I have comes from the combination of my skills, wits and luck.

Aside from being white and conservative (libertarian actually) we are hated because we obviously don’t our fair share. Now granted, technically we’re excused from this requirement because we are not part of the minority being mugged, currently set at the top 2% of taxpayers, but I don’t trust technicalities to protect my family. For example the targets of liberal ire initially were the billionaires and millionaires; then it was 1% for awhile before some of the brighter liberals realized that you can’t soak the top 1% and get all the free healthcare and cell phones you need, so it became 2%. How long before it’s 5%? 10%? Anyone with more than anyone else except those who are more equal than me?

Nobel Prize winning Paul Krugman argues that we should bring back the 91% tax rate. Krugman’s argument in essence is that the American economy grew in the 1950s under the tax rate, workers were safely empowered by unions and as a result of both company executives enjoyed modest remuneration. Of course Krugman doesn’t mention other aspects of the 1950s that may have had something to do with prosperity, such as Republican control of Congress and the White House, and its darker side segregation although the treatment of Col. Allen West by the liberal establishment serves as a reminder of that last item. He does mention that the 91% number is a sham though, writing, “The best estimates suggest that circa 1960 the top 0.01 percent of Americans paid an effective federal tax rate of more than 70 percent, twice what they pay today.”

Wait, top .01%? Didn’t he mean 1% or 2%? No, but today we are talking about a minority 200x larger? And no one paid 91% even though it was on the books. Why? For the same reason we’re in a mess today: the tax code is riddled with loopholes and taxbreaks that the average 2%er isn’t privy to or can’t use.

In our non-Council category, the winner was Walter Russel Mead at Via Meadia with America, Israel, Gaza, the World submitted by Joshuapundit.In it, Mead has an interesting take on why most Americans differ so much from the average European when it comes to their views onIsrael.

OK, here are this week’s full results. Gay Patriot, The Right Planet and Simply Jews were unable to vote this week, but none was affected by the 2/3 vote penalty.:

See you next week! Don't forget to tune in on Monday AM for this week's Watcher's Forum, as the Council and their invited guests take apart one of the provocative issues of the day and weigh in...don't you dare miss it. And don't forget to like us on Facebook and follow us Twitter..'cause we're cool like that!

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Tommorow is Thanksgiving, a uniquely American holiday. OK, American and Canadian, though they celebrate it on a different day. While many cultures have a harvest festival at this time of year, Thanksgiving is different in that it clearly acknowledges divine providence as its source and inspiration.

Its direct ancestor was the Hebrew festival of Sukkot, as William Bradford and the Pilgrims were very familiar with the Hebrew Bible, and regarded themselves as akin to the Jews dwelling in the Wilderness.

On the first Thanksgiving, the Pilgrims celebrated and thanked G-d for their survival and reportedly gave a feast, inviting the local Indian tribes as guests. The holiday has endured ever since.

Over the years, Thanksgiving has acquired a number of traditions..foods like roast turkey, cranberry sauce, stuffing and pumpkin pie, football on TV, travel madness for those leaving town to be with their extended families...and a feeling of thankfulness for G-d's bounty and closeness to our families, sometimes unexpressed but never absent.

As you celebrate, try something...take a moment to reflect on your blessings. Be thankful for that bountiful harvest,for your loved ones, for the fact that we live as free men in a free country. And remember that this is so because other men and women are willing to endure hardship and be away from their loved ones to keep it so.

Take a minute to spend some time and enjoy the feeling of being close to the people that have always been there for you, the ones you can't leave behind, as the song says.

And carry with you my best wishes for a wonderful Thanksgiving for you and yours.

Meet the new boss...same as the old boss.. - Peter Townshend in 'Won't Get Fooled Again'

Egypt's Mohammed Morsi has assumed dictatorial powers for himself in Egypt, decreeing that what's left of Egypt's courts are now barred from challenging any of his decisions.This means that under Morsi's direction,Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and salifist dominated parliament is free to write a brand new sharia-liciuous constitution with anything in it they see fit.Morsi further declared that he can do anything he wants to 'protect Egypt's revolution' :

In what was interpreted by rights activists as a de facto declaration of emergency law, one of Morsi's decrees gave him the power to take "due measures and steps" to deal with any "threat" to the revolution, national unity and safety or anything that obstructs the work of state institutions.

Morsi framed his decisions as necessary to protect the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak nearly two years ago and to cement the nation's transition to democratic rule. Many activists, including opponents of the Brotherhood, criticize the judiciary as packed with judges and prosecutors sympathetic to Mubarak. Brotherhood supporters accuse the courts of trying to block their agenda.

"He had to act to save the country and protect the course of the revolution," said one of Morsi's aides, Pakinam al-Sharqawi, speaking on Al-Jazeera. "It is a major stage in the process of completing the January 25th revolution," she said, alluding to the starting day of last year's uprising against Mubarak.

In other words, what we have now is exactly what Egypt had under Mubarak, right down to the declaration of permanent martial law with the same 'emergency laws Egypt had under Mubarak, backed up by the army and financed by American aid.

The only differences are that the army is officered now by hardline Islamists and that under sharia rule, women and Copts will have even less rights.As will people in general.

Oh, and one more thing. Rest assured this move by Morsi was approved by President Obama and Secretary Clinton beforehand.Egypt is too badly in need of U.S. aid for Morsi not to do so.
Anyone remember this, written back when the media and the Obama Administration was telling us all about the glorious, democratic Arab Spring?