Perils of pigskin predictions

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JOEL COLOMBY

Perhaps if we had more than one championship banner in our office pool from 18 years of trying, we'd feel a little more compelled to dispense advice about whom to take in your NFL draft.

Instead, we've enlisted the help of about 20,000 other poolies to present a fantasy projections guide for the coming season.

The Internet has a few sites that compile composite draft lists, but we're going to use myfantasyleague.com's Draft Tracker as our guide. More than 2,000 NFL fantasy leagues already have submitted how their drafts unfolded -- round-by-round -- and, give or take a few spots on the rankings list up or down, is a pretty good indication of the selection order.

Below are the Draft Tracker's listings for about the first five rounds. They are based on yardage plus scoring, but for those of you in touchdown-only formats, we've included TD predictions, as well. We personally don't agree with all of them, but we'll let you make up your own minds.

Even with so much input, predicting a player's performance is never a given. In fact, as we've pointed out in this space previously, odds are that at least half of this year's first-round picks will be disappointments. Last year, six players-- most of them at the top of the order -- played well enough to merit first-round selections this year. And that was an unusually high number.

Injuries and age play significant roles in how well a player will produce. So, too, does coaching changes and the skill level of his teammates around him, the difficulty of his team's schedule and even his contract status. They are all things an attentive poolie will consider before making his choices.

Recent years have seen a definitive first-round swing towards running backs, and for good reason -- they gain more yards and score more often than the pass-catchers. In fact, last season, a dozen running backs wound up with more fantasy points than the top wide receiver, Marvin Harrison of the Colts.

Indy quarterback Peyton Manning poses another dilemma because his fantasy totals rivalled those of Chargers running back and overall points leader LaDainian Tomlinson. But Manning will drop in many drafts simply because there are a larger number of quarterbacks who can put up decent fantasy numbers than backs.

Do you select him early and watch the points roll up weekly, or do you pass on him to grab those 1,200 yards and 10 TDs from one of the handful of top running backs left on the board?