The Blue Jays baseball mailbag is making its 2014 debut and we’ll try to add it as a weekly feature of our coverage throughout the season. Last season, as Jays’ fans may remember, everyone including the Las Vegas odds makers, bought into the excitement of GM Alex Anthopoulos and his empire-building of what was perceived as the pre-season favourite in the AL East. The early over/under in wins a year ago for the Jays was 89.5. Obviously they didn’t come close. This season, being far more conservative, Bodog.ca has listed the Jays at 79.5 victories, tied for 20th in baseball and last in the AL East. Following are the first release of the MLB win totals courtesy of Bodog (www.Bodog.ca )

Team (Predicted wins)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (92.5)

2. St. Louis Cardinals (90.5)

3. Detroit Tigers (89.5)

4. Oakland Athletics (88.5)

4. Tampa Bay Rays (88.5)

4. Washington Nationals (88.5)

7 (tie). Atlanta Braves (87.5)

7 (tie). Boston Red Sox (87.5)

9 (tie). Los Angeles Angels (86.5)

9 (tie). New York Yankees (86.5)

9 (tie). San Francisco Giants (86.5)

9 (tie). Texas Rangers (86.5)

13. Cincinnati Reds (84.5)

14. Pittsburgh Pirates (83.5)

15 (tie). Kansas City Royals (81.5)

15 (tie). Seattle Mariners (81.5)

17 (tie). Arizona Diamondbacks (80.5)

17 (tie). Baltimore Orioles (80.5)

17 (tie). Cleveland Indians (80.5)

20 (tie). Milwaukee Brewers (79.5)

20 (tie). Toronto Blue Jays (79.5)

22. San Diego Padres (78.5)

23 (tie). Colorado Rockies (76.5)

23 (tie). Philadelphia Phillies (76.5)

25. Chicago White Sox (75.5)

26. New York Mets (73.5)

27. Minnesota Twins (70.5)

28 (tie). Chicago Cubs (69.5)

28 (tie). Miami Marlins (69.5)

30. Houston Astros (62.5)

On to the Mailbag.

Q. Hi Richard,

Pouring rain in Destin today, I hope it’s better in Dunedin.

Question on Jays’ pitching: I think the Jays have eight pitchers after Drew Hutchison becomes the fifth starter (Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Jeremy Jeffress, Chad Jenkins, Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, Neil Wagner and Liam Hendriks), some of whom are out of options. Over the winter did you ever hear anything about any of them being discussed for trades?

If not, is that an indication that the rest of the teams wouldn’t be interested in any of them, and what does that say about our backup plans when someone in the starting five falters or gets injured?

Thanks and regards,

D’Arcy Draper

A. The problem with that question of whether any other team may have been interested over the winter in those eight Jays pitchers is that every other team has their own eight pitchers exactly like that. There is no shortage of those guys in every MLB organization. Consider that of that group of eight you mention, the foursome of Redmond, Jeffress, Wagner and Hendriks have spent their careers being available to anyone. In trade, it was Rogers for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes and Drabek for Roy Halladay, while in the cases of Jenkins and Perez, they were originally signed and developed by the Jays. All of those pitchers are very available but would be secondary sweeteners in any deal and as such, discussions would always start somewhere else and end up with these names.

I believe that the current backup plans for 2014 Jays’ starting pitchers is in a far better position than it was a year ago. Not the Top 5, but the 6-10 that was filled by guys like Aaron Laffey, Ramon Ortiz and Chien-Ming Wang in 2013. If we accept your assumption that Hutchison is going to be No. 5 and Happ is four, then in reserve and ready to help out are Rogers, Drabek, Redmond, Marcus Stroman, Sean Nolin and (loud throat clear) Ricky Romero. The future of Jenkins, I believe, is in the bullpen, in middle relief. This is Deck McGuire’s last chance to re-establish his credentials as a prospect.

Q. Hello,

It is great to have baseball back!

I am wondering what story lines you would suggest we keep our eyes on this spring and start to the season.

Thanks.

Phil

A. Let’s start behind the plate. How durable can Dioner Navarro be? He has never started more than 113 games, which even if you understand he will have the 33 Dickey days off, that leaves 16 other games and that’s if Navarro equals his high — which at 30 is unlikely. If that’s the case, then is it Josh Thole or Erik Kratz as the backup. That will play itself out, with Kratz being the frontrunner.

With Adam Lind, is he a full-time DH and is there someone else that could play first base when Edwin Encarnacion needs a day off? Who will be the right-handed hitting half of the Jays’ DH platoon with Lind? Is it Moises Sierra, even though manager John Gibbons prefers a more veteran guy? If not Sierra then is it someone not yet in camp?

Who is the fifth starter? Is he even here in camp yet? It’s likely that the Jays will work with the service time of Stroman and Nolin and that neither has a realistic chance of fighting for the No. 5 starter until at least May. The reason for that intentional delay is that if they start in the minors then their free agency can be postponed by a year from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020.

Can new batting coach Kevin Seitzer get through to Brett Lawrie and calm down his swing, allowing his natural athletic ability to shine through? So far so good. What are the Jays going to do with the extra depth in the bullpen, many of whom deserve to be pitching in the majors at the end of the day?

Other storylines will surely develop.

Q-Hi Richard

Wonder if you could insert a small section in one of your columns on some of the lesser stars in the firmament, for instance: How did poor old Ricky Romero’s winter pan out? Does Esmil Rodgers still have a shot in the starting rotation? (I still think he is an ideal long relief in the bullpen)

Who looks the likeliest of our rather anonymous backup catchers to make the bench? Has the most honest manager in baseball still got a smile on his face etc. Despite this rotten winter, spring training always gets me optimistic. So despite last year’s stinker I think this could be a decent year for the Jays, (something I seem to have been saying for too many years now).

All the best

Frank T., Prescott, ON

A. The previous answer to Phil’s question above addresses many of those questions that you pose. And, after all, does the true definition of “backup catcher” not always begin with the words “rather anonymous?” As for Romero, the only way his situation will get better is by pitching and getting left-handers out. It will either be in AAA-Buffalo or in another organization. Esmil Rogers does have a chance to begin the season as a fifth starter, but that will play itself out. And as for the manager, he seems more relaxed and more familiar with his roster. He’s very easy to like. He’s the kind of guy you’d just like to throw the tape recorder and notebook aside and go for a beer with. Oh, wait I did when I visited him in San Antonio. This needs to be a good season for the major-league Jays with at least a winning record or Jays jobs are in jeopardy.

Q. Hello Richard,

I guess the best that Alex Anthopoulos could do was lay claim to right-handed pitcher Liam Hendriks off waivers, a pitcher with a 2-13 record and a 6.06 era with the Twins in three seasons. Wow isn’t that something — he waited all year long to achieve this result? Kudos to him — I guess we will just have to sit and watch the grass grow for the next four years. The die-hard Jays fans deserve better. Let’s hope for a change in upper management of this team soon. Bring in people who know how to put together a winning team and pry open the tight purse strings of the owners.

Have a great weekend.

Tony in Toronto.

A. I detect a little sarcasm in your question. The fact is that the Jays went from $83 million in payroll in 2012 to $119 in 2013 to about $135-140 million in 2014. That seems to me to be a case of Rogers opening the tight purse strings starting in November 2012 when they pulled the trigger on the deal with the Marlins. There is light at the end of the competitive tunnel. In a couple of years, the quality depth of the very young Jays’ farm system is going to reach the AA and AAA levels and be pretty impressive. But, you’re right, that hasn’t produced a major-league winner. Oh and until the Argos leave for another home stadium, you will never be able to, as you suggest, “sit and watch the grass grow.”

Q. Morning Richard,

What a disingenuous pile of slop from Ervin Santana’s agent, referring to him as a top pitcher. Santana is a mediocre (pitcher) who had one fair year in 2013. It would follow a pattern for AA to pay too much for this guy, just as he bought at the top of the market to get one-year wonder R.A. Dickey.

As a retired investment manager, I’d love to see AA’s stock portfolio; bet it’s full of bad stocks he bought during a spike. Put me down for 70 wins this year, and the none-too-soon firing of AA, and hopefully the obtuse Paul Beeston. This team needs to be sold to someone who knows baseball.

Look forward to a new year of your Mailbag soon.

Best Regards

Selby Martin, Toronto

A. Of the two free-agent pitchers, I always thought they should sign Santana, but I believed they would choose Ubaldo Jimenez. It seems that AA agrees with you that the price is too high in terms of value in return. I still would sign Santana if you could get him for three years plus an option. If the Jays win 70 games as you suggest, I might also suggest if that is the case, Gibbons would not last the season.

Q. Hi Richard,

Great pieces lately on Jim Fregosi and Derek Jeter. It seems to me that of the available free-agent pitchers Ervin Santana has been the Jays’ best choice all along. Since he’s still available, is it at all possible that AA’s current “we’re-happy-with-what-we’ve-got” approach is just posturing? It’s hard to believe that AA would wager so much promise and payroll on so many unproven arms. Or is there some other nickel-and-dime reason why AA isn’t giving Santana what he wants and getting on with the summer?

Matthew McKean, Ottawa

A. I believe, and I may be wrong, that Santana has always had a ground floor offer of three years and $27 million from Anthopoulos and that the GM honestly believed that the market would come back close enough to that offer that, when bargaining started, he might only have to add slightly to that to cement a deal. But the Jimenez contract with the O’s of four years and $50 million threw a crimp into that plan in both years and dollars. However, with Santana still unsigned and Bean Stringfellow aware that AA is still interested in his client, maybe some sort of short term compromise might be worked out.

Q. Hi Griff,

Excited for this season to start and excited for more mailbags! I want the Jays to win now and I agree with you that they should do what they can to get Ervin Santana as we cannot count on, or hope for, one of the young arms to be a major contributor in 2014 if we are to be serious about being a contender. Saying that, I like a lot of these young arms in the system and I am hopeful that they are handled correctly and groomed in order to reach their potential, which is more likely 2015-16. Hypothetically if we were to get Santana which I assume would be for four years and certainly no more than five, what could the Jays rotation look like in 2015 and then 2016? Who goes and who makes the grade?

All the best,

Aaron H, Sydney, Australia

A. I would say that by 2017 the Jays will have a five-man rotation of homegrown arms that will be the envy of baseball. Not all the top prospects develop, but even if 50 per cent of them do, it’s possible. Consider names like Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna, Daniel Norris, Sean Nolin, Matt Smoral, Tom Robson, Chase DeJong and Alberto Tirado.

Q. Dear Richard,

Why do I have no idea whether the Blue Jays are going to bounce back and be a playoff contender this year or be completely awful, but have no doubt that Josh Johnson and J.P. Arencibia will have excellent seasons? Am I alone in this thinking? But my question is this: why don’t pitchers have a knuckleball as part of their repertoire as opposed to always being a ‘knuckleballer’ specialist? I’m sure a lot of pitchers can throw one. So why not toss the odd knuckler in the mix?

Are you going to Sydney for the MLB opener?

Thanks,

Rob Brander, Sydney, Australia

A. Is your nickname “Eeyore?” As for the knuckleball question: to throw a good knuckleball takes total dedication and concentration. If the ball spins at all instead of fluttering up with no movement in the seams, it will be tonged into the next county by slavering hitters. You need the consistent grip, delivery and release point in order to make it work and it is counter-intuitive that can be done on a 10-times-a-game basis. Knuckleballers pre-game warmup in bullpen is to reach that perfection. No, it’s easier for a knuckleballer to throw an occasional fastball than for a fastballer to throw an occasional knuckleball.

Q. Dear Richard,

I am curious about your view of Adam Lind’s beard. I am not the type of person to comment towards appearances, since players can make their own choices. However, watching today’s spring training game versus the Phillies, when I watched Adam Lind step up to the plate, I felt that his long beard has crossed the line to make him, along with his team, look unprofessional. I would feel somewhat embarrassed to watch a Blue Jays game right now with my children present.

Rob

Kitchener, Ontario

A. Times change and the long scraggly beards did not seem to affect the Red Sox and their popularity on the way to a World Series championship last year. There are still some teams with a facial hair policy like the Yankees, but when you’re like most organizations struggling to attract quality players it sometimes is hard to put restrictions on players self-expression. Besides, I checked out Lind’s beard yesterday from up close and it’s quite well maintained. You want a tangle, look at mine some mornings.

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