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October 26, 2015

'Godzilla' El Nino Likely Not to Blame for UK's Cold Spells This Winter

By by Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

October 26, 2015, 9:23:32 AM EDT

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As the strongest El Niño in over 50 years begins to impact the global weather pattern, rumours are flying that it could result in a long, bitterly cold winter across the United Kingdom.

While it’s true that El Niño can play a role in the pattern that sets up over western Europe, the Met Office says its influence won’t be wildly impactful.

“The influence of an El Niño over the U.K. and western Europe tends to be weaker and less predictable than elsewhere because of how far away we are from the event itself,” the Met Office wrote in their blog on 15th September.

The core of the cold air is expected to build over Scandinavia and then drop southward, with only brief periods of below-normal temperatures reaching northwest Europe, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.

Overall, however, temperatures this winter season are expected to be typical for northwest Europe, with the only exception being Ireland and Scotland, where colder-than-normal water in the North Atlantic will keep high temperatures below normal.

The number of days with snow and ice are also forecast to be fewer than normal.

“Generally, El Niño could cause a jet stream configuration to allow for cold air at times into the U.K.,” AccuWeather Meteorologist and Long-Range Forecaster Anthony Sagliani said.

However, the overall pattern is much more significantly driven by processes that occur in the north Atlantic, he said, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

“These teleconnections, as we call them, determine the placement of highs and lows in the atmosphere, and also the placement of the jet stream far more significantly than El Niño does in the U.K.,” Sagliani said.

Despite being nicknamed a Bruce Lee and Godzilla El Niño on social media, its impacts, if any, will be minimal.

“There’s really no effect in the U.K. that we can say is definitely caused by El Niño” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

“We can’t say, like we can in the U.S., that it’s going to be wet, or stormy, etc. By the time [El Niño] reaches Europe, the influences have been overtaken by typical processes that control the region’s weather.”