Will Covid 19 settle the Climate Change Debate?

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As we navigate this period of lockdown, we hear some interesting stories in the media such as:

- Cleaner seas and rivers with fish and other creatures returning to places like Venice

- Pollution free skies enabling views of the Himalayas for Indians for the first time in 30 years, and skies generally clear of aircraft emission streaks

- Road traffic (so CO2 from road vehicles) drastically reduced

- Herds of Deer wandering around East London streets

But, are the dire financial consequences of lockdown showing us the true cost of what climate change protesters want implemented?

Will this period of less human activity make a material difference to global temperatures etc., such that it can prove humans are responsible for climate change? Or if it makes no difference, will it disprove that theory?

Just a few thoughts from an over thinking, bored non-scientist on TVF, and I'd be interested to hear yours

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I believe man made climate change is not real. But Man made pollution is certainly real. There is no doubt the world should rid itself of all pollution, particularly air pollution. If this happens to help the climate too that's fine with me but most proponents of climate change throw in a potpourri of other social justice warrior causes that are socialist wish lists.

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I believe man made climate change is not real. But Man made pollution is certainly real. There is no doubt the world should rid itself of all pollution, particularly air pollution. If this happens to help the climate too that's fine with me but most proponents of climate change throw in a potpourri of other social justice warrior causes that are socialist wish lists.

I agree with most of what you say, especially about the socialist wish lists. I do think human activity contributes to climate change, but I doubt it makes a material difference to the Earth's natural cycles.

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I think that the Covid-19 episode will lead to worse effects on the climate because:

- many people/companies in western countries will default to quicker, cheaper and dirtier ways of producing and distributing goods and services due to lack of funds and need to make money to survive

- in the developing world, there will be an even more exageraged need as in the Western world. This will be aggravated by inherent poverty - while Covid-19 will be controlled in Western countries by public health measures and eventually vaccine, such measures in developing countries are going to have a more extreme effect and there will be issues with testing and vaccine distribution due to lack of funds both in the developing countries themselves and with the usual sources of funding from donors

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We won't have sufficient data to draw any conclusions about whether climate change is significantly man-made or not. The temperature measurements and modeling are on a global scale over the course of decades, and to attempt to draw conclusions from a small blip within this massive set of data will not be productive.

We are seeing immediate and positive changes to the environment as a result of the lack of vehicles and industrial activity reducing pollution and un-crowding spaces. That this should happen so quickly and comprehensively should provide food for thought for those who doubt whether humans can have major impacts on the planet through our activities. Of course we can and of course we have.

We are also seeing how the massive changes in the workplace that we were assured were not possible to implement in fact were entirely possible to implement and have happened almost instantaneously and seamlessly. We are also seeing how there was no money available for health care, education, universal basic income or other "socialist" things, but suddenly now there are trillions of dollars that are appearing out of nowhere and this can be spent on these things - but only a small proportion, we still have to give away the majority of it to large corporations for some reason despite the "free market" and these corporations efficiencies, innovation and management being the thing that supposedly determines success or failure. We are also seeing how people who are denied a living wage are actually the ones we depend on to keep the modern world running. We are also seeing that "expertise", "knowledge" and "experience" are actually things that provide the best guidance for how to deal with urgent and difficult problems, rather than "gut feeling", "charisma" and "celebrity". We are also seeing how those who are gullible and attracted to conspiracy theories will ultimately end up heavily damaged by or even killed by those characteristics.

So I'm optimistic that once we get through this mess we will have disposed of many of the lies and people who have built this foundation of BS that has enabled us to get to this dreadful situation. The shock of the rug being pulled out from under this (false) economy will have gotten all the pain over with in one fell swoop, and the situation will be ripe for a shift to the new Green Economy where we stop allowing unfettered access to and conversion of resources (the commons) for private gain and the true costs of things are priced in. Then and only then can we find a balance and move forward.

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You are right, it will be interesting to how much the climate change markers are affected by the reduction in pollution. I don't think the results will really influence people though, most are firmly set in their views.

Climate change and coronavirus have some interesting parallels, at least to me. Notice that at the start of the epidemic, conservative pundits and politicians dismissed it, calling it a hoax, overblown media hype, politically motivated etc. They strongly denied it, right up until the moment it was staring them in the face. They have done the exact same thing with climate change.

Fortunately (or maybe unfortunately), the pace of climate change is very slow. By the time they'll be willing to admit something is wrong, it will be too late. They'll be long gone, and their kids and grandkids will be left to clean up the mess. I don't have a strong view on two-sided politics either way, but I do trust in the scientists that study it much more than politicians or pundits.

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I agree with most of what you say, especially about the socialist wish lists. I do think human activity contributes to climate change, but I doubt it makes a material difference to the Earth's natural cycles.

It does not really matter what people as individuals think. Trust the same people who you will trust in creating a vaccine for the current pandemic. In my opinion, whoever takes that vaccine will in essence be saying they trust the climate science as well, they just refuse to admit that to themselves.

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Climate Change is NOT "man made". It is a naturally occurring cycle that has been going on ever since this planet was formed. Otherwise Earth would still be locked in a "snowball" earth phase where 99.99% of life of the planet is extinct.
These cycles last from 10s of thousands of years to 10s of millions of years, depending on a number of factors, the vast majority of which have absolutely nothing to do with mankind.

Mankind's actions have contributed to a speeding up of the current warming cycle that started at the end of the last Ice Age. Various climate models have suggested that this warming phase (or "inter-glaciation phase" as in a period between freezing cycles) would end in 1,500 years or so and the Earth would enter another (minor) Ice Age. These warming and cooling cycles happen all the time.
However, depending on the Earth's orbit around the sun during a given period, and it's axial tilt, those warming cooling periods could be extended by thousands of years (or even millions).
Some experts think that mankind's action may actually be delaying the onset of the next freezing period by 1,500-5,000 years.

Consider that the Cyrogenian Ice Age lasted from 720 to 635 million years ago. That means it lasted 85 MILLION years ! The planet was frozen completely down to the equators with only some areas around hydro-thermic vents deep in the ocean still being warm (and supporting microbacterial life).

That was just 1 of the 7 major Ice Ages the planet has gone through, just in the last 720 million years. (Each Ice Age contains numerous warming and cooling spells as well, or "glaciation" and "inter-glaciation" phases.)

As well, the Earth has also had periods where it has been completely ice free !! Those periods are referred to as the "Greenhouse Earth" periods and guess what happens during those periods ?
Life FLOURISHES !
When the Cyrogenian Ice Age ended, it was followed by the Ediacaran Period which saw an "explosion" of life form on the planet, including the first hard-shelled life forms. The Ediacaran period is estimated to have lasted around 94 million years.

The planet is considered to be in a "Greenhouse" phase when all the ice in Antarctica and Greenland has melted.

This will really irritate some people. Scientists (real ones, not ones named Greta) estimate that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere during the Ediacaran Period were 16 times higher than in the pre-Industrial period and global temperatures were around 3 degrees (Celsius) higher than current temperatures.

Why is that ? I thought you'd never ask ! This will also irk Greta and company.

Real scientists have determined that EVERY major Ice Age was triggered by the SAME reason - LACK of CO2 in the atmosphere !

Here's what happens. CO2 is released into the atmosphere through volcanic and tectonic plate activity (we are talking about long before man was ever a gleam in an amoeba's eye).
CO2 builds up in the atmosphere and over the course of millions of years it helps trap heat and start warming the planet.

The ice/snow melts and - voila' ! Life flourishes ! Including life such as plants and trees and phytoplankton, all of which absorb CO2 and release oxygen as a byproduct !

The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the larger the plants and trees grow and the more phytoplankton there is in the seas. However, all good things must come to an end and that has been the case since long before Greta decided she was really angry and that we'd "stolen" her childhood.

Eventually, all those CO2 absorbing organisms outstrip the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere and the pendulum starts to swing the other way and the planet starts to cool down again. This process doesn't happen overnight of course (a fact more than a few seem to forget, or outright ignore).
It takes 10s of thousands of years before the effects are noticeable, but then things devolve in a hurry.

You seem when the Ice starts to reform the first thing that happens is more of the suns rays are reflected back into space, which actually speeds up the cooling process ! Eventually the oceans start to freeze over (speeding up the process), glaciers form (speeding up the process) and snow blankets the planet (speeding up the process). Life on the planet DIES.

And stays that way until eventually, enough CO2 builds up in the atmosphere (again) to allow the planet to start warming up (again).

And that has been happening ever - since - the - planet - was - formed.

And that is what WILL keep happening long after mankind has gone extinct ! In fact, if every human on the planet died today and every fossil-fuel burning piece of machinery stopped and every methane farting cow died -
Climate Change would STILL happen !

And it will keep happening until the sun goes super nova (or we wipe ourselves out by accidentally blowing up the planet).