Funny enough, the team with just one win six games into the CFL season is favoured by two-and-a-half points over the team with three wins in five games.

Yes, the Ottawa Redblacks, returning to the field after a 10-day break between games (the latest setback came by a 27-24 score in Toronto), are the pick of oddsmakers to knock off Winnipeg on Friday night at TD Place. The reality is the Redblacks have sprinkled plenty of good things into their six games, losing four by a collective total of 10 points.

Said Redblacks quarterback Trevor Harris on Thursday: “It’s one of those things, you look at it and you’re like, “Man, 1-4-1, ah.’ It just looks terrible. This isn’t a 1-4-1 team, we’re a good football team. We know it’s go time, we have to win some football games.”

“They’re a lot better than their record shows, you can see it on film,” said Blue Bombers running back Andrew Harris, a key to Winnipeg’s offensive success with 58 rushes for 240 yards and 37 catches for 298 more. “I think they’ve just been a victim of a tough schedule to start with. We have a lot of respect for them.”

It’s not like the Blue Bombers are a pushover. With quarterback Matt Nichols and Harris leading the way, the team’s offence has averaged 31.5 points per game, tops in the CFL. Even missing elite receiver Weston Dressler (who’s been moved to the six-game injured list with a “lower-body” injury), the Bombers are dangerous. Last Thursday, the Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 44 seconds to miraculously topple the Montreal Alouettes.

The Blue Bombers defenders were ballhawks in 2016, with 30 interceptions. Winnipeg was also plus-29 in turnovers — a huge factor in the club winning 11 games.

“It’s about making more plays than them,” said Redblacks quarterback Trevor Harris. “This is a defence that can turn you over and really affect the outcome of the game. A lot of people don’t talk about it, but their defence scored a lot of points (in 2016). You create three or four turnovers a game, it’s hard to lose those games. As long as we keep the turnovers down, protect the football and make sure we’re executing our game plan, things will be all right.”

The Redblacks are coming off a hellish stretch of the schedule in which they had three games in 11 days. It took its toll physically and mentally.

“I needed days off,” said Harris, who took some big hits during the stretch. “But my dad told me I’m a big wimp, that I need to stop being hurt. I’m like, ‘I’m fine, I haven’t told you anything.’ He just keeps telling me I’m a big wimp.”

It’s been almost like a bye week for the Redblacks since facing Toronto but, from their side, there’s no worry that they’ll come in stale.

“It seems teams that come off byes are sluggish at first,” Harris said. “It’s just about maintaining your focus, being effective in game-planning, staying aggressive and going out and throwing the first punch.”

Plus, they need to avoid the breakdowns that have cost them dearly.

“One or two plays a game can cost you,” Harris said. “There will be adversity. When you play against a team like Winnipeg, they’re going to do some things that cause problems. You have to make sure you stick together and fight through it.”

Because the Redblacks have executed well much of the time — they’ve averaged 26.3 points per game offensively — coach Rick Campbell said there’s plenty to work with in the tool box.

“We want to make sure we don’t mess with things that don’t need messing with and fix the things that need fixing,” he said. “We think we’re a team that’s on the cusp of being able to do some good things. There’s always urgency. You only get 18 (regular-season) games so you have to make them all count. The bottom line is making plays to win the game, we’ve missed some opportunities.

KEELAN FIRED UP: Making his second straight start at safety, with Antoine Pruneau again filling in at SAM linebacker for Nick Taylor (six-game injured list), Keelan Johnson is optimistic Ottawa’s defence can handle what the Bombers bring to the table.

“Defence is all about reaction,” he said. “Regardless of the points they put up on previous teams, I know our defence is capable of holding them to a lower amount of points than they’re used to. We’re a team that can get on a hot streak and I think it’s time to go ahead and start that fire and get this thing rolling. Our confidence has never wavered. It’s not that we’re terrible, we’ve just had terrible results.”

THE END AROUND: Soon after Friday night’s game is over, Trevor Harris will hit the highway with his wife, Kalie, and their son, Trenton – for a six-and-a-half-hour drive to Erie, Pa. On Saturday, Harris will be best man in his brother Cody’s wedding. Asked about the speech he will deliver, Harris said: “I could speak on him for an hour. He’s going to be sweating.” … Quincy McDuffie, signed earlier this week, will make his Redblacks debut as a returner. Defensive back Imoan Claiborne is also back, with linebacker Kevin Brown going to the one-game injured list … Jake Silas is listed as the starter at right tackle, backed up by Jason Lauzon-Seguin. Interesting that the Redblacks are looking at dressing seven offensive linemen, with Evan Johnson also on the depth chart … Mossis Madu Jr. is listed as the backup running back, but there’s a good chance he’s a game-day scratch.

The Bombers will be without veteran receiver Weston Dressler, who was injured in last week’s win over the Montreal Alouettes. Ryan Lankford, who had seven catches for 53 yards and a touchdown while filling in for Dressler last week, starts in his place. Receiver Matt Coates will take Dressler’s place as the holder for kicker Justin Medlock, which is no small task as Medlock is very particular about what he expects from his holder.

2. The Redblacks receivers

Greg Ellingson and Brad Sinopoli have combined to make 76 of Ottawa’s 158 receptions this year and have been the target on 106 of the club’s 226 passes thrown (47%). Ellingson leads the CFL with 643 receiving yards on 39 catches. Sinopoli has 440 yards in catches. Both are on pace to exceed 1,000 yards for the third straight year. Look for Ottawa to try to distribute the ball a bit more, with William Powell, Diontae Spencer, Josh Stangby, Cody Hoffman and possibly Patrick Lavoie all potential targets. Don’t be surprised if backup Brendan Gillanders is somehow a factor.

3. The kickers

Ottawa’s Brett Maher has missed three of his last eight field-goal attempts while Winnipeg’s Justin Medlock is 2-of-5 in his last two games after a career-long streak of 28 makes in a row. Medlock has stretched his streak of made converts to a CFL record 61 straight from the new 32-yard distance. Maher leads the CFL with an average punt distance of 45.6 yards

4. Yards after catch

Winnipeg leads the CFL with 48% of their passing yards (143 per game) gained after the catch is made, Ottawa is No. 2 with 39% of their yards (127) after the catch. Brad Sinopoli ranks second in the league with 210 YAC.

5. Blue Bombers DBs

The Bombers secondary has been getting torched (358.2 yards per game, eighth in the CFL), so they’ll try something a little different. Rookies Roc Carmichael and Brian Walker will switch spots, with Carmichael moving to the field corner spot and Walker taking over at field half. Carmichael has been particularly susceptible to big plays and the Bombers hope the former NFL cornerback will be more comfortable on the outside. The physical Walker could make things tougher for the Redblacks slotbacks on the inside. Either way, expect Trevor Harris to throw to the field side.

THE KEY MATCHUP

Redblacks QB Trevor Harris vs. the Bombers defence

The Bombers defensive line has been decent this season, but will need to put pressure on Harris to have any chance of slowing the Redblacks offence down. Led by defensive end Jamaal Westerman, with five, the Bombers are fourth in the league with 12 sacks. But they are eighth in the league in quarterback pressures at 26. Watch for defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat, who was one of the CFL’s performers of the week in Week 6 after he had an interception and two sacks against Montreal. Harris comes in with an eight-game streak of starts with at least one TD pass and ranks No. 2 in the CFL with a pass efficiency rating of 108.7. Ottawa hasn’t capitalized on its chances and has 26.3 points per game (sixth in the CFL), and has a No. 7 ranking in net offence with 371 yards per game.

INSIDE THE GAME

The Redblacks are the only team in CFL history to have each of their first six games of a season decided by five points or fewer. The only two teams to come close to that are Hamilton in 1999 and Montreal this season, with their first six decided by seven points or fewer. The Blue Bombers are coming off a huge 41-40 comeback win over Montreal — they were trailing by 12 when they got the ball with less than two minutes to go. Two touchdowns in the final 44 seconds sealed the deal. Returning for Winnipeg is all-star SAM linebacker Moe Leggett, back after missing two games. The Redblacks will need to focus on containing Winnipeg running back Andrew Harris, who has 37 catches for 298 yards, putting him on pace to obliterate the CFL record (102) for receptions by a running back, set in 1985 by Saskatchewan’s Craig Ellis. Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols has led the Bombers on 18 touchdown drives already (tied with Ottawa’s Trevor Harris, but Winnipeg has played one less game.

PREDICTION

Ottawa 31, Winnipeg 26

The weather could be a factor. I’ve been called a “homer” for picking Ottawa in all but one game this season. I take it with a grain of salt — the guy who called me a homer said the Senators would lose in this year’s NHL playoffs to the Bruins in six, the Rangers in four, then the Penguins in four. Say no more. This could get higher scoring if the rain holds off.

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