But aren't you concerned with how transient the income can be from RV parks and marinas? Your tenants can literally drive away overnight for any reason...Plus you're targeting very small markets, how many people own boats and RVs? Finally, its going to be a pain to exit those investments...

Its a play off of the affordable housing crisis in America. I don't see construction costs dropping anytime soon, so more people will be forced off the spectrum into mobile/manufactured housing. The average baby boomer doesn't have $100k+ in home equity...

If only I could find a way to fund $10m+ of LP equity into the space... My fund is completely sold on the thesis.

Everyone's assuming they're limited to the US. The best returns are going to be places in the developing world:

Africa: huge population boom and migration to urban areas. Lagos, Ouagadougou, Dar es Salaam, Kampala, Lusaka, Luanda, etc. Near term returns may not be the best, but sitting on land plots for the next decade or two will bring in huge profits, assuming you can keep stability. High risk and high reward.

Central/South America: population already centralized in the urban areas, but rock-bottom prices and similar growth potential to Africa. San Salvador, Bogota, Cartagena, Guyaquil and Quito, Guadalajara, Juarez, Tegucigalpa, Guatemala City are the poor but rising cities. Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Santiago, Lima, Panama City, Buenos Aires are the established players that keep growing. As the majority destitute-poor populations slowly rise into the middle class over the coming decades having footholds in these cities will pay off big time, though similarly unstable risks as Africa.

Personally, Luanda, Dar es Salaam, and Sao Paulo are my top choices for best future returns on investment.

I certainly haven't visited every locale I mentioned, but from the cities I have I can say that it really matters having local connections. These are places where knowing the right governing officials and local power brokers matters, and one won't get far otherwise. If you do have their blessing, however, the fruit is ripe for the picking.

I heard it best from a pretty decently sized International REPE player. He said whenever he goes down to Latin America markets to look at investments down there everyone only ask him about how to invest their money back in the US.

I think Africa > South America: The US is too focused on internal squabbling to worry about South America, and the Chinese are pouring huge amounts of NSA capital into Africa, and therefore have a vested interest in maintaining regional stability (the Chinese need inexpensive, low-skilled labor to replace themselves).

Not directly related to this, but I was personally thinking about the food needs in a lot of emerging markets (specifically South America and Africa), and was just thinking about the freight rail network around Chicago. If that could be expanded upon with more competitive infrastructure to reach ports in the South, which could then ship to much of the developing world where agricultural output isn't necessarily as robust or efficient as it is in the Midwest (or at least won't be in the mid-term), there could be a lot of opportunities related to that. I don't know enough about transporting agricultural products across vast distances like that though.

At this point in the cycle - I'd buy really good, defensible real estate. Areas with high barriers to entry and low supply (like coastal CA). Less upside but less downside risk too. Lever up 5x if you want to juice returns but at this point in a 10 year cycle you should be thinking "how will this perform in the next recession?" imo.

Crystal City, Virginia - 5 miles from DC, which means jobs in the federal government keep the area afloat during recessions and with the new amazon HQ being built there....this area is going to explode.

My bet would be Metro Detroit. Very high end suburbs, growing industrial markets, downtown is seeing a ton of investments from many large companies... especially Quicken Loans (Dan Gilbert). You can still get ROC year 1 north of 10% on stabilized deals.

Atlanta and the South in general. Jobs are rapidly growing down south and people are following. Warmer weather to boast too. Cheaper living. Better taxes.

The rich in high tax states will eventually get tired of being taxed excessively and move down south. As those families move out, the states will have to raise taxes to compensate, forcing more rich families to leave. Some 180,000 families in California alone are responsible for nearly 50% of income taxes paid and nearly 1/3 of tax revenue. Once they start to leave, California will finally implode on itself.

Atlanta and the South in general. Jobs are rapidly growing down south and people are following. Warmer weather to boast too. Cheaper living. Better taxes.

The rich in high tax states will eventually get tired of being taxed excessively and move down south. As those families move out, the states will have to raise taxes to compensate, forcing more rich families to leave. Some 180,000 families in California alone are responsible for nearly 50% of income taxes paid and nearly 1/3 of tax revenue. Once they start to leave, California will finally implode on itself.

Don't you think your about 30 years too late on this call? This is already happening. And as pointed out by many people on older threads, people aren't rational actors and make decisions based on things other than net take home pay. There are reasons to live in NYC or California or the northeast in general that go beyond "how much are my taxes" and many of those won't change.

For example, Florida may be a magnet for retirees because of its tax/bankruptcy laws and its weather, but the school system is one of the worst funded and under-performing in the country. Liberal states tend to have vastly better school systems than conservative ones, in large part because more money gets allocated. I'd argue that for professionals with kids (which is obviously a large population), school quality is equally important as tax burden.

The rich in high tax states will eventually get tired of being taxed excessively and move down south. As those families move out, the states will have to raise taxes to compensate, forcing more rich families to leave. Some 180,000 families in California alone are responsible for nearly 50% of income taxes paid and nearly 1/3 of tax revenue. Once they start to leave, California will finally implode on itself.

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