Jimmie Johnson hasn't won a Sprint Cup race yet this season, but remains among our picks to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup. / Mike Dinovo, USA TODAY Sports

by Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

by Jeff Gluck, USA TODAY Sports

Just 10 races into the season, we already know half the Chase for the Sprint Cup drivers.

OK, make that likely Chase drivers. The invitations may not have been sent, but they've been placed in an envelope, addressed and stamped. And most of them are headed to the same place - NASCAR's powerhouse teams.

Of the eight drivers who have won (and virtually guaranteed themselves a playoff spot under NASCAR's new format), not one has been a surprise.

It's three wins for Team Penske (Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano with two), three for Stewart-Haas Racing (Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick with a pair), two for Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch) and one each for Roush Fenway Racing (Carl Edwards) and Hendrick Motorsports (Dale Earnhardt Jr.).

The underdogs missed a huge chance to make the Chase in last week's anything-can-happen race at Talladega Superspeedway. Now, except for a fuel-mileage race, the July race at Daytona International Speedway or perhaps a road course, it will become much more difficult for a small team to pull an upset.

Sure, the opportunity is there. NASCAR's rules mean anyone in the top 30 with a win will make the postseason. But the big teams have hogged all of the wins so far.

And those organizations are likely to win most - if not all - of the other races, too. If there's been any surprise, it's that Earnhardt's Daytona 500 win is the only victory for Hendrick Motorsports - a team which won nine races last season.

That said, it's highly likely more Chase spots will be filled soon. Here's a look at our predictions for who will end up with the other eight Chase berths for the 10-race run to the title:

Jimmie Johnson: Yes, the only driver to make all 10 Chases hasn't won yet this year. But does anyone really think the next 16 races are going to pass without six-time champion Johnson winning at least once? He's averaged 5.5 wins per season over a 12-year career. He'll be fine.

Jeff Gordon: If the points leader is winless after the Chase cutoff race at Richmond on Sept. 6, he gets an automatic Chase berth. Gordon happens to be the current points leader and has come close to several victories this year. No. 24 fans don't need to worry much about this team.

Kasey Kahne: This hasn't been the start to the season Kahne wanted - he's 20th in the standings - but he drives for Hendrick. That means he'll have a shot to win every week, and he'll go to victory lane within the next two months when he comes into a sweet spot of the schedule that includes tracks at which he's recently won - Charlotte, Pocono and New Hampshire.

Matt Kenseth: Is the runner-up jinx alive and well? The last six drivers to finish second in the season-ending standings have combined for just one win the next season. But Kenseth, who won a series-high seven races in 2013, should buck that trend.

Greg Biffle: Roush Fenway's performance might be a little off from the top teams, but Biffle is still capable of winning a race or two before the Chase. Even if he doesn't win, he might be high enough in points that it won't matter (he's eighth now).

Tony Stewart: 'Smoke' isn't getting his typical results since returning from a broken leg. His average finish of 19.7 is on pace to be the worst of his career. Still, the 42-year-old Stewart remains one of NASCAR's most talented drivers and figures to win at least one race before the Chase begins.

Kyle Larson: If there's going to be a winner from one of the second-tier teams on an oval, it might be Chip Ganassi Racing rookie Larson, who is tied for third in the series with five top-10 finishes. Larson will only get better with experience, and he seems to be a quick learner.

Marcos Ambrose: NASCAR's best road racer will get it done on one of the two road-course races - at Sonoma or Watkins Glen. All six of his NASCAR national series wins (two in Cup, four in Nationwide) have come at road courses.â??