Thursday, 9 January 2014

Wythenshawe and Sale East: Ward Breakdown

This page gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wythenshawe and Sale East at the general election of 2010.
The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate.
The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat,
and estimate how they voted in 2010, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election.
These estimates are based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow
for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between
several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). Such wards are shown divided into several
parts, called [1], [2], and so on.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010
from the period 2007-2011.
For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party.
A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Workings for Wythenshawe and Sale East

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East.
The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results.
Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Actual Results

Turnout-adjusted Results

District

Ward

ElectionYear

Electorate2010

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

OTHVotes

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Manchester

Baguley

2010

10,608

777

0

1,178

2,854

924

0

1,401

3,393

5,718

Manchester

Brooklands

2010

10,300

1,534

2,633

1,061

465

1,496

2,568

1,035

453

5,552

Manchester

Northenden

2010

10,733

546

2,478

2,503

399

533

2,419

2,444

390

5,786

Manchester

Sharston

2010

11,209

933

0

930

3,260

1,100

0

1,097

3,845

6,042

Manchester

Woodhouse Park

2010

9,594

608

2,428

626

528

750

2,997

773

652

5,172

Trafford

Brooklands

2010

7,908

2,648

1,444

1,389

179

1,994

1,087

1,046

135

4,262

Trafford

Priory

2010

7,762

1,618

2,087

1,345

263

1,274

1,643

1,059

207

4,183

Trafford

Sale Moor

2010

7,488

1,668

2,032

1,068

198

1,356

1,652

868

161

4,037

Total

75,602

9,427

12,366

9,723

9,236

40,752

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the seat of Wythenshawe
and Sale East at the general election, as well as the total local
turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the
fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between
the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred
away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them.
The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or
into that party on a ward-by-ward basis.
If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each
ward which go into that ward's transfer pool.
If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer
pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes
it needs over the whole seat.

Party

GeneralElection 2010Votes

Local ElectionTurnout-adjustedVotes

Votes totransferaway

Votes totransferinto

Ward Transfers needed

CON

10,412

9,427

0

985

Transfer in 14.9% (= 985 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes

LAB

17,987

12,366

0

5,621

Transfer in 85.1% (= 5621 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes

LIB

9,107

9,723

616

0

Transfer away 6.3% (= 616 / 9723) of ward's LIB votes

OTH

3,245

9,236

5,991

0

Transfer away 64.9% (= 5991 / 9236) of ward's OTH votes

Total

40,751

40,752

6,606

6,606

Main table for Wythenshawe and Sale East

The main table shows the general election transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the seat
of Wythenshawe and Sale East, as well as the predicted election result.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Est. 2010 General Election Results

Predicted Results

District

Ward

Electorate2010

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Manchester

Baguley

10,608

1,265

1,948

1,312

1,192

5,717

960

2,577

368

1,813

5,718

Manchester

Brooklands

10,300

1,550

2,874

969

159

5,552

1,176

3,413

272

691

5,552

Manchester

Northenden

10,733

594

2,766

2,289

137

5,786

451

3,667

642

1,026

5,786

Manchester

Sharston

11,209

1,482

2,181

1,027

1,351

6,041

1,124

2,733

288

1,896

6,041

Manchester

Woodhouse Park

9,594

820

3,399

724

229

5,172

622

3,761

203

586

5,172

Trafford

Brooklands

7,908

2,017

1,218

980

47

4,262

1,530

1,818

275

639

4,262

Trafford

Priory

7,762

1,304

1,814

992

73

4,183

989

2,332

278

584

4,183

Trafford

Sale Moor

7,488

1,380

1,788

813

57

4,038

1,047

2,250

228

513

4,038

Total

75,602

10,412

17,988

9,106

3,245

40,752

7,899

22,551

2,554

7,748

40,752

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general
election vote in the seat.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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