The Nation’s election predictions

The Nation has posted its election predictions and BP has created this chart – see also June 23s Kom Chad Luek p2 (although their chart says Bhum Jai Thai is 55-67!)

BP: As you will see The Nation, as the article also states, says that the big two parties will win 380 seats and the small parties will win 120 seats. BP thinks this division is incorrect and the smaller parties won’t win more than 100 seats. More likely around 90 although if they win more than this it will be at the expense of the Democrats. BP thinks that Bhum Jai Thai won’t win more than 40. You can easily take 15-20 off their numbers. Chart Thai Pattana’s Chumpol and Banharn the other day both readjusted down their expectations to maximum of 30 and 25-30 respectively, but The Nation thinks they will get more than this. It ain’t happening.

The Nation does not provide a breakdown by province, but its sister language Thai publication Kom Chad Luek for June 23 on pages 2-3 does for all 375 constituencies.

In Bangkok, the 33 constituencies are likely to be split between Pheu Thai and the Democrats. In the latest round of surveys, Pheu Thai seemed likely to bag 16 seats and the Democrats 12 seats, with neck-and-neck competition between the two parties for the six remaining seats.

BP: So based on the latest polls, the 19 to Puea Thai and 14 to the Democrats seems reasonable and is roughly in line with how BP sees things as they stand now although +/- for each side of 1-2 although if the polls including the latest Bangkok University poll are correct, Puea Thai will win more than 19….

For the South, The Nation‘s prediction of 48 for the Democrats with the rest of the parties winning 8 seats between them seems okay, although BP thinks the Democrats will win 1-3 seats less than this with those shared between the smaller parties.

For the North, The Nation gives 40 to Puea Thai, 15 to the Democrats, 1 to Bhum Jai Thai, 9 to Chart Thai Pattana, and 2 to Chart Pattana Puea Paendin. The Dems number is about right, but they or Puea Thai may pick up a couple extra from the smaller parties. Chart Thai Pattana won’t win 9. Around 7.

For the Central region, this is where The Nation starts to go wrong. They are giving Bhum Jai Thai 16 seats, Puea Thai 32, Democrats 29, Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 1, Palang Chon 3, and Matubhum. BP thinks Puea Thai will pip the Democrats, but Bhum Jai Thai are not going to win 16 seats. They currently only have 5 seats and did not pick up enough quality defectors from other parties. One defector defected from Puea Thai to Bhum Jai Thai and then after internal polling showed he wouldn’t win went to the Democrats! Would add 5 each to the Democrats and Puea Thai and take away 10 from Bhum Jai Thai.

For the Northeast, given that Chart Pattana has stated they are only competitive in 1 seat now, they are not going to win 4. The Democrats can win 9, but Bhum Jai Thai are not going to win 29. 20-23 is a more likely range with Puea Thai winning the rest. Kom Chad Luek has Bhum Jai Thai winning 8 out of the 9 seats in Buriram and in a whole range of provinces where BP can’t see that Bhum Jai Thai will do that well.

BP doesn’t see that Thursday’s rally will help the Democrats and while on June 9, BP thought the Democrats would win 182 seats and Puea Thai 228 would now adjust this to the Democrats winning 170-175, but adjust Puea Thai upwards to 235-240. The Democrats need a miracle now and if things continue as they are with Puea Thai picking up steam, Puea Thai could come close to winning an absolute majority.

*There are a few different sets of figures – some are after the by-elections – others just have different number of constituencies…