Political Risk

Human Rights Risk

Analyses human rights and development risks and opportunities through 33 indices and interactive maps. 198 country scorecards with ratification status for 14 key international human rights instruments.

Economic Risk

Predictive Models

The Predictive Models dataset provides a forward-looking assessment of the risk environment, using statistical models to predict how specific risks will develop across a range of countries in the following calendar year.

Risk calculators and dashboards

Somalia, Haiti and Afghanistan are the countries most vulnerable to
the effects of climate change according to the Climate Change Vulnerability
Index (CCVI), released today by global risks consultancy, Maplecroft.

The CCVI is part of Maplecroft’s new Climate Change Risk Report
2009/10. It rates 166 countries on their capacity to mitigate risks
to society and the business environment posed by changing patterns
in natural hazards, such as droughts, flooding, storms and sea level
rises and the resulting effects on ecosystems.

Unlike other studies, the index does not attempt to predict changes
to patterns of natural hazards or ecosystems as a result of climate
change, but instead measures how vulnerable a country is now
and how well prepared it is to combat the impacts of climate
change.

Poorer nations with few natural resources and limited infrastructures
are particularly vulnerable, with Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan,
Sierra Leone and Burundi most at risk. Somalia’s ability
to adapt to climate change is severely undermined by food insecurity,
conflict and political violence and human rights risk, whilst
in Haiti, declining water quality and the rising risk of food
and energy insecurity all contribute to its very poor rating.

Of the 28 countries rated as “extreme risk” by the
CCVI, 22 are located in Africa.

Norway, (166), is the lowest ranked country in the CCVI and best
equipped to address the challenges of climate change. Among the
factors contributing to its ranking are its low population density,
excellent health-care and communications systems, good governance
and a strong institutional framework. Additionally, Norway’s
overall food, water and energy security are high and its ecosystems
are well protected. The countries least at risk after Norway
are Finland (165), Japan (164) and Canada (163). Other low risk
countries include UK (155), USA (152) and Germany (151).

India (56) is the only emerging economy to be rated as high risk.
This is due to high population density, increased security risk,
poor resource security and concerns about human rights violations.
India’s vulnerability is of particular concern to business
because of its huge role in global supply chains. Other countries
of concern include Pakistan (29), Philippines (44) and Indonesia
(61), which all rated high risk, whilst Brazil (103) and China
(110) are categorized as medium risk, with Russia (127) rated
as low risk.

Maplecroft has designed the index to enable governments, international
organisations and the private sector to identify increased financial
and societal risks arising from vulnerability to climate change.
To enable this, the CCVI is accompanied by an interactive GIS
(Geographical Information System) map, which pinpoints climate
change vulnerability at sub-national and site specific levels
by breaking down each country into 25km2 cells. Users can locate
not only countries of high risk but regions, towns and industrial
sites, allowing governments and business to develop mitigation
strategies against the potential impacts of climate change.

“The interrelated nature of global risks mean that ineffective
adaptation to climate change will make the world more vulnerable
to other risks such as energy, food and water security, infectious
diseases like malaria, displacement, political instability and
even conflict. In combination, these risks reinforce one another and threaten to
undermine global development and economic growth. Governments
and non-governmental organisations increasingly view business
as a key player in preventing the impacts of climate change.
Business needs to reduce the impacts of climate change throughout
global value chains and by doing so make a positive contribute
to the defining challenge of the 21st century.”

- Professor Alyson Warhurst of Warwick Business School and Founding Director of Maplecroft.

Maplecroft used 39 separate data sources in the production of
the CCVI including: UN Development Programme, UN Environmental
Programme, UNAIDS, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,
United States geological Survey, World Health Organisation, World
Resources Institute, International Monetary Fund, the European
Commission and risk indices from Maplecroft’s Global Risks
Portfolio.

Maplecroft’s new Climate change Risks Report 2009/10, which
includes the CCVI, provides detailed analysis and risk indices
for four key areas of climate change risk: climate change vulnerability;
CO2 emissions from energy use and land use change; unsustainable
energy and climate change regulation. The report provides quantifiable
risk data in country scorecards, sub-national GIS maps for all
risk indices and has been created to help businesses, investors
and international organisations assess and compare climate change
risks across countries.