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Market Outlook March 10, 2014

Mortgage rates (Bank of Canada official = 4.99%) have fallen 25 bps (1/4%). Other interest rates have risen slightly, but lower mortgage rates could translate into higher property prices, all else being equal. This could potentially have a wealth effect and translate into an increase in spending (and investing). This should be supportive of corporate earnings which will be announced over the next few weeks.

Comparing various asset classes, small caps still outshine the others, with US small caps (IWM) in the lead, followed by Canadian small caps (XCS). Gold also has good momentum, but headlines say that commodity prices are falling (over what timeframe?) and I would hesitate to bet too much on gold while stocks are doing okay. To be clear, stocks have much better momentum than bonds, and a balanced portfolio should overweight stocks.

I shy away from individual small caps because of their volatility, so in my registered accounts where I have a single momentum-based position, I continue to own VRX and, in my US$ account, WAG.

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