One of our favorite, lesser known indicators, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, showed some improvement in its September reading, inching ahead to 0.14 from 0.13, while the less erratic three-month moving average narrowed to -0.03 from -0.15.

These are not great readings, and we doubt any leading Fed officials saw these and thought “taper now!” But, we’re always so quick to point out the holes in the data, so when one of our preferred soundings reads better, we feel compelled to point it out.

The index comprises 85 different data series that the Fed’s number-crunchers bind up and run through their hand-crank. What it produces is a measure that illustrates the state of economic activity. Numbers at zero indicate the economy is growing at its long-term trend, and the three-month moving average is generally considered more indicative of what’s going on out there than the one-month readings.

This report isn’t a market mover, even if stocks are looking a little winded this morning. What will get the market’s attention, aside from anything QE-related, will be if the yield on that 10-year U.S. Treasury note keeps rising. It’s up to 2.78% this morning. That’s might be a sign of economic improvement that does seep into the bulls’ green eyes.

Now, a zero reading is nothing to get excited about, although it does add some weight to the recent GDP and jobs reports. It also is in line with another of the Fed’s lesser known economic readings, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (bad name, good index), which shows business conditions are a bit above neutral.

A look at the index since 1960, however, is sobering. Since 2000, conditions have rarely ventured far above the zero reading, whereas in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s it had considerable long periods above that line. That tells you something about the bigger picture: