Solomon: Confidence may trump experience in AFC playoffs

Deshaun Watson and Bill O’Brien’s playoff experience together is just two games but the team certainly believes in its ability to win.

Photo: Brett Coomer, Houston Chronicle / Staff photographer

Experience matters, they all say.

What will be said when a quarterback without a long playoff résumé leads his team to the Super Bowl? It is going to happen.

The four signal-callers remaining in this year’s AFC playoffs have a grand total of six playoff starts among them, with the Texans’ Deshaun Watson and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes topping the list with two apiece.

In the Texans’ lifespan, there has never been this green a group of AFC quarterbacks at this stage.

A quarterback who hasn’t been there and done that will get there and do that, but that’s not necessarily the case for the coaches. This weekend’s AFC games offer coaches on the opposite end of the experience spectrum.

Kansas City’s Andy Reid has coached in 26 playoff games, winning divisional round games five times, and advancing to the Super Bowl once, while his counterpart Bill O’Brien has five postseason games as a head coach, and is 0-1 in the second round with the Texans.

Saturday’s game against the Titans will be John Harbaugh’s 17th playoff game with Baltimore, and he has a 3-3 mark in this round. In his first playoff game as a head coach, Mike Vrabel led the Titans to an upset win at New England last Saturday.

There is much more to the formula that has Kansas City and Baltimore as near double-digit favorites this weekend — like being the top two seeds and playing at home — but the clear advantage in coaching experience has to be a factor.

Or does it?

Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill won in Foxborough in the pair’s first playoff game, toppling Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, who have won a record 30 playoff games together.

O’Brien has been oft-criticized for questionable and not-so-questionable calls in his six-year tenure with the Texans — oh, he has deficiencies — but don’t be so quick to check the box next to Reid’s name when it comes to determining which head coach has the edge in the Kansas City-Houston matchup.

Reid’s offensive genius tag comes with its own crazy component.

He has made a host of baffling coaching decisions that went against analytics and common sense, old school and new. His many years in the league just make his list of poor choices and challenges longer.

Who will make the difference this week, coaches or quarterbacks? Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to a crucial coaching decision.

Mahomes and Watson aren’t going to be overwhelmed by the situation. Expect each of them to deliver. This game will not be a referendum on which one is better.

Watson was superb in the wild-card game, his clutch gene on full display.

After being 19th in the league in points allowed through the first 11 games, the Chiefs gave up just 52 points in five December games. No other team gave up fewer than 70 points last month.

Though that number is skewed by Kansas City having held the offensively challenged Broncos and Bears to three points each, the Texans could have a difficult time matching their 31-point effort from the first game between these teams.

They will probably need that many points. O’Brien’s offense is capable.

In the first game, Houston rolled up nearly 500 yards, the second-most they had this season with a rushing total of 192 yards, also its second-best of the season. It was a methodical performance, as Houston had three touchdown drives of 75 yards or more, and a fourth that ended in an end zone interception. Deep threat Will Fuller’s longest catch went for just 12 yards, DeAndre Hopkins’ best was for only 18, and Kenny Stills didn’t even play.

While defenses have fared better against Mahomes than they did in his 2018 MVP season, he is a gifted passer who should have his way with the Texans’ secondary. The key for Houston’s defense will be whether it can get pressure on Mahomes without having to resort to blitzes.

The last time, the Texans managed just one sack and two hits on Mahomes, who despite playing on a sore ankle, threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns. The Texans would probably be pleased if they hold the Chiefs, who average 28 points a game, to 24 a second time.

Coaches’ scheme adjustments will be fascinating to watch.

O’Brien did one of his better in-game jobs against Buffalo, adjusting the game plan on the fly after a horrendous start. The onus is on him to find a way to get the Texans’ offense going after a season-long trend of poor starts.

Obviously, the Texans would prefer not to fall behind by double digits again this week. That said, since the NFL-AFL merger only four times has a team blown a lead of 18 points or more in a playoff game. Reid’s Chiefs have been responsible for two of them.

Kansas City hasn’t lost a game since before Thanksgiving, winning six straight to earn a bye and homefield advantage for this game. One of its losses this season was to the Texans in Week 6.

Houston’s come-from-behind win at Arrowhead — it trailed 17-3 in the first quarter — was almost as impressive as its bounce-back victory over the Bills.

O’Brien deserves some credit for that. Not all of his calls will be right, or particularly smart for that matter, but his steady hand has helped produce another 11-win season.

His team handles adversity and misfortune as well as any Texans team ever has. Unlike years past, the Texans believe in themselves, their quarterback and their coach.

To the surprise of many, and no matter the experience, they might have an advantage with the latter against the Chiefs.

Jerome grew up in downtown Acres Homes, Texas. He is a proud graduate of Mabel B. Wesley Elementary and was a basketball team captain at Waltrip High School, where he helped the Mighty Rams to a near-.500 record.

A math genius and engineering major in college, he's still working on this writing thing. He says that the three years he spent as an F.M. Black Panther probably played a more significant a role in the man he would become than the time he spent in college.

Get insights, lively discussion and, of course, debate from Houston Chronicle columnists and guests every Thursday as they take on the most current hot-button topics in sports. Please subscribe on your favorite podcast app, and give us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts. It helps! Thanks!