China-Japan showdown is coming

By Sushil Seth

There are growing concerns that China might be readying itself for a confrontation with Japan.

A recent Pentagon report on China's growing military power suggests the US is worried that Beijing is gearing up not only to threaten Taiwan but also to confront other US allies in the region, Japan being the most prominent among them. There are also fears in some circles that China would eventually aim to displace the US as the region's dominant power.

China's growing military power is a worry, but it is not the only factor threatening US pre-eminence in the region. Through trade and politics, China has already emerged as a counter-point to the US. Asia-Pacific countries are lining up to ingratiate themselves with Beijing. It will be hard to find a country in the region willing to take a stand against China on any issue sensitive to Beijing.

There has been a tremendous transformation in regional politics and economics in the last decade to accommodate China as the region's rising power. And this has dented the US' image, more so because of the quagmire in Iraq and its preoccupation with the global war on terrorism.

At the same time, the steady growth of China's military power has only reinforced China's credentials as a regional heavyweight. As the Pentagon report says, "the pace and scope of China's military build-up already place regional military balances at risk."

Even though China is still a long way from matching US military power, it is already developing a capacity to make it costly for the US to take it on. Beijing is reportedly deploying a new generation of ballistic missiles in southeast China, opposite Taiwan, with the capacity to strike moving targets at sea.

China is also modernizing and expanding its fleet of submarines. According to Michael Richardson in the Jakarta Post, "China put 11 submarines into service last year and is expected to commission another five or six this year. With over 50 Chinese subs operational, and about half of them modern and highly lethal, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US and its ally Japan to counter this undersea force."

As for the air force, it is said to be acquiring Tu-22M-3 Backfire bombers from Russia that would make US naval carriers and forward bases more vulnerable to attacks by China.

The US, therefore, has reason to worry, for itself and for its allies. The potential for conflict is already creating alarm among countries in the region. At a recent conference in Tokyo to deliberate on Asian economic integration, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi warned that, "Our economics is pushing us in one direction [of integration] but our politics is pulling us in another."

He said that regional solidarity had been "seriously dented" by Japan and China pulling in different directions. As a result "we will all suffer the consequences."

The Philippines' ambassador to Japan, Domingo Siazon, was even more alarmist, raising the prospect of an atomic arms race between China and Japan.

Wang Yi (王毅), China's ambassador to Japan, reportedly said that the relationship was so bad that "we should go back to the starting point" 34 years ago when China and Japan signed an agreement to normalize their relations.

Beijing is angry at Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi annual visits to the Yasukuni shrine, which houses the remains of some Japanese war criminals. There are also issues of revision of history text books, with Tokyo accused of sanitizing, if not obliterating, its war-time record of occupation and brutality. In short, China believes that Japan hasn't shown adequate contrition for its war crimes and is starting to manifest militant nationalism.