Erdogan met Poroshenko

21.08.2016

Citizens who have fallen into a state of euphoria due to the recent unexpected pacification of Russia and Turkey, is to take a deep breath and think again. On the official website of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has information about his telephone conversation with Erdogan. Like happy said a mouthpiece of official Kiev, the Turkish President has assured his Ukrainian counterpart: Ankara still does not recognize the “illegal occupation of Crimea and intends to support the Crimean Tatars.

Official site of the President of Ukraine is, of course, he is still the source of information. The desire to indulge in wishful thinking is a universal trait of all the politicians of the world. But the current Kiev leaders to “step ahead of the rest”. And therefore I’m usually inclined with great skepticism refers to “information” that appears on the website Poroshenko. Usually – but not in this case.

I have no doubt that the conversation Poroshenko with Erdogan had taken place the above passages. I don’t see anything particularly amazing and even nothing really to worry about. Erdogan has refused to officially recognize the joining of Crimea to Russia? And who agreed to recognize it – except Russia, of course?

Our closest ally in the defense of the armed forces of Belarus? Yeah, no. The official Minsk continues to recognize the “territorial integrity of Ukraine within its borders at the beginning of 2014. Maybe a favor in the form of official recognition of Russia within its present borders, the actual Moscow has had such a loyal and reliable partner as Kazakhstan? Again, no. Astana in 2014, only reported his “understanding” of Russia’s actions in Crimea. But it is not equivalent to acceptance of the legitimacy of joining the Peninsula to Russia.

In other words, what is submitted on the website Poroshenko as a “sensation” about the turn Erdogan away from his new “ally” Putin, in fact, no sensation is not. The same applies to the words of erdoğan that Turkey would continue to support the Crimean Tatars. The question is: what else Erdogan could, in principle, Poroshenko can say about this? Of course, not following: the meeting with Putin I was so inspired by that from now on the problem of the Crimean Tatars does not exist for me.

This can not be because this can never be. The slogan of the unity of all Turkic peoples under the rule of Ankara is one of the main ideological principles of Turkish policy. To make Turkish leaders to abandon an official Declaration of this principle it is possible unless under torture.

Let’s interim results: what is written on the website of the President of Ukraine about his conversation with Erdogan, is not a matter for concern. Is not this subject and the fact that such a telephone conversation. Expect that for the sake of reconciliation with Moscow, Ankara has refused contacts with the official Kiev, it would be the height of naivety. So international politics is not done. Sophisticated diplomatic players – and Erdogan definitely not be accused of lack of sophistication – I always try to keep all communication channels open and communicate with the greatest possible number of partners.

It turns out that the reason for the conversation is actually there? I think the issue really is and very powerful. Just above I wrote that I found interesting appeared on the website Poroshenko information about his conversation with Erdogan. But that’s me, on the contrary, very interesting, is the fact that behind the scenes a brief informational messages.

Did this conversation formal and tense or, conversely, live and direct? If you still have the sides happy with each other? If they agreed on any joint action? And who was the initiator of the telephone conversation?

As I wrote earlier, Erdogan went on the warming of relations with Russia not because of the fact that he suddenly awoke sympathy for our country. The President of Turkey belongs to the category of those politicians who always lead a double or even a triple play. Blackmailing the West for its policy of rapprochement with Moscow, erdoğan always keeps in mind the possibility: or tomorrow, or the day after that I again may see the need to show teeth Russia.

In this scenario, relations between Ankara and Kyiv is a very useful litmus test, showing the degree of Turkey’s commitment to her temporary Alliance with Russia. If the contacts erdoğan and Poroshenko, no special warmth and, as they say diplomats, “constructive”, between Moscow and Ankara. If such “constructive” appeared, either Erdogan wants to put pressure on Putin, to push him to something, or the Russian-Turkish relations are again coming into conflict.

In the coming months, this second option seems unlikely. Erdogan’s relations with the West are under clinch. Until this changes, the Turkish President is not beneficial to the conflict with Russia. In his best interest to pretend that the contacts between Ankara and Moscow came the “Golden age”. That is the purpose, for example, only that the statement was made Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yildirim of that if Russia wants to, its planes may be stationed on the used by NATO the Turkish air base in Incirlik.

At the same time, Binali yıldırım, however, said he did not believe that Russia has such a need. And you know what? I do not think so. I believe that Russia should not have too much “lean” Turkey and fall into excessive addicted to the stuff. We must always remember that in the face of Erdogan we are dealing with a very unreliable partner. The fact of the talks, erdoğan and Poroshenko – another reminder of this simple.