Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE DOWN A HALF AT 12Z...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING. IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA'S
INTENSITY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS. IN 36-48 HOURS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25
DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION AND IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST...
275/5. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
THE WEST OF CELIA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT SLOW
FORWARD SPEED. WHEN CELIA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD
INCREASE AS LOWER-LEVEL STEERING BEGINS TO DOMINATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-18
HOURS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TRENDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.3N 122.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 123.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 16.7N 124.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 126.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 136.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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