Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Is there really room for a third mobile OS?

The amount of smartphones shipped is growing like crazy. Not that I doubted it, but it is nice to see an exponential curve. It is good for the entire industry

Android growth is just spectacular. I do not believe I have seen anything like this in any market

Symbian is disappearing, while BlackBerry is shrinking fast, in particular recently. I would bet that in a few quarters the BBOS curve will match the one from Symbian

Windows is not growing, actually the opposite

BADA is showing up for the first time, with a significant 4%, four times Windows (!) and a third of BlackBerry already

I wrote before that I thought there was no room for four mobile OSs. I felt one between Windows and BlackBerry was not going to make it. Considering Nokia is behind Windows, and the strength of Microsoft, I was betting on Windows to be #3.

Now I am wondering if there will ever be a #3. I mean, one with significant market share. The way this graph looks, knowing that a Nokia with Windows is not going to be here in Q3 (therefore, this graph is going to look even worse for Q3), considering that the bottom of the market could be taken eventually by BADA, one would conclude there will be two mega players (iOS and Android) and there will just be crumbs for the rest (e.g. below 10%).

After all, 3 is the perfect number, but developers would not mind having just two. I think I have seen this pattern before. Last time, one took 90% eventually. I do not think this is going to happen in mobile, though.

About Me

Fabrizio Capobianco is the Founder and CEO of TOK.tv, the company that lets you talk to your friends while watching TV. He also serves as President and Chairman of Funambol, which he founded in 2003 and grew to be the leading mobile open source company in the world.