The elite three quarterbacks, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, are joined in Tier 1 this week by Matthew Stafford (3rd best QB matchup against Dallas) and Robert Griffin III (best QB matchup vs. Denver). A healthy Calvin Johnson elevates Stafford and the emergence of the rookie tight end Jordan Reed should help Griffin.

To explain the drop off to Tier 3, Eli Manning has a good matchup against Philadelphia (6th best), but he looked terrible last week against Minnesota with only 200 yards, one touchdown, and three near-interceptions. Terrelle Pryor has been fairly consistent, but faces a tough Pittsburgh defense. Andy Dalton is coming off of back-to-back weeks of 300-plus yards, but faces a stingy Jets secondary.

Running Back

Four new running backs make their way into Tier 1 this week: Frank Gore (3rd best RB matchup vs. Jacksonville) coming off of a 22-point game; Knowshon Moreno (2nd best RB matchup vs. Washington) with at least one touchdown in four-straight weeks, Reggie Bush, who has been deadly when Calvin Johnson is playing; and Eddie Lacy (best RB matchup vs. Minnesota).

With six teams on bye this week, RBs start looking dicey in Tier 3. I expect high variance in this group. DeAngelo Williams still does not get goal-line carries. Zac Stacy, while looking strong the last three weeks, faces SEA (28th best RB matchup). Mike James will have his first N.F.L. start against a hot Carolina defense (19th best RB matchup). Steven Jackson returns for the first time since Week 2 (24th best RB matchup vs. Arizona). Lamar Miller has fallen into sharing carries in Miami with Daniel Thomas.

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Three Broncos receivers, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker -- make it to Tier 1 this week. Anyone in the top 3 tiers is capable of producing WR1 numbers this week. Rueben Randle, Harry Douglass and Michael Floyd are all rising fast.

Gronkowski leads Tier 1 after his monster first game back (17 targets, 114 yards). Jason Witten drops to Tier 2 with Terrence Williams on the rise in Dallas. Jordan Reed comes off of a huge week (134 yards, 1 TD) and climbs all the way up to Tier 2. Tier 3 is composed of a group that is more touchdown-reliant for points,

Boris Chen is a data scientist for The New York Times. Read more about his statistical analysis at his blog and follow him on Twitter at @borisachen.