Rumor mill: Poizner pulling even in polls? Meg bouncing back?

California’s GOP gubernatorial race enters its final nail-biter phase, with chatter in Sacramento that State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has actually drawn even in at least one new private poll to former eBay CEO Meg Whitman –and that Whitman is bouncing back a few points in another. In either case, given Whitman’s $60 million-plus effort and her one-time 50-point lead, it’s a shocker.

Team Poizner clearly aims to keep the heat on, pounding Whitman on character issues: they’ve just released a brutal new ad called “Not Once” — a 30-second spot that hits Whitman for the first time on her voting record. Check it out:

Here’s a tip sheet on the latest talking points and chatter in the race, what to watch as enter into the final wild ride:

*Poizner’s lucky breaks in the headlines: Team Poiz has gotten boosts in their campaign from national news stories — Goldman Sachs and Arizona immigration. His attacks on those two issues have hurt Whitman bigtime, especially with some polls showing nearly three quarters of voters support that Arizona law. He’s pulled even to Whitman in at least one private poll, thanks to those — and to Rep. Tom McClintock, his conservative star endorser.

*Women still a bright spot for Meg: Private polling shows women are likely to hang in there with Whitman longer — and give her more of the benefit of the doubt. She’s been doing some positive spots, and another poll shows her bouncing back a bit. But can she sustain it?

*”She could lose this” : Some leading Whitman endorsers, we hear, are actually acknowledging that their candidate, who looked swathed in the mantle of inevitability for months, could now actually lose the race. Ouch.

*Get ready for Tough Meg: Whitman didn’t get to be the head of a major company by accident, and can be a force to be reckoned with. Post-debate, she’s especially determined to beat Poizner. Listen to her “First in History” ad, the latest Whitman spot, this one with Howard Jarvis Taxpayers’ Association’s Jon Coupal here.

*Jerry starting to sweat?: Some Democrats close to gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown are watching how Poizner, not too long ago dismissed in Whitman’s shadow, has managed a saavy strategy and a tough team that’s eviserated her lead. If the State Insurance Commissioner actually wins in June, he comes away with the biggest upset in recent state memory — and a rep as the “giant-killer.” So what could he do to Brown? Is it “be careful what you wish for?”

*Get ready, Bay Area: Poizner has tied or pulled ahead of Whitman in most California markets, we’re told, but hasn’t advertised in the Bay Area yet. That is coming soon.

*Can Poiz keep the Big Mo?: Whitman has thrown another $5 million into the pot, and Poizner, $2.5 million. So far, money hasn’t made the difference in this race. Can Poizner keep up the heat for three weeks? Will Goldman play out before then? Has he peaked too early — or can he maintain his Big Mo?