I am a mechanical engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt by training, and have come to love the beautiful game in my adult life. I turned to my numerical training after becoming a Seattle Sounders FC and Arsenal supporter in 2009 in the hopes of accelerating my understanding of the new game I loved. I've been writing my own blog for over two years, and have written for such outlets as "The Tomkins Times", "The Transfer Price Index", and Howler Magazine. My goal is to advance the understanding of the English Premier League and Major League Soccer through numerical means.

Updated Premier League Title, Top Four, And Relegation Likelihoods

The final international break of 2013 is now over, and the Premier League is just past the quarter season mark. Everyone has a better idea of who might be relegation fodder (Crystal Palace), and who might be off to an unexpectedly good start (Arsenal). Now is when the season pivots towards the depths of winter, where teams will be tested ahead of their final opportunity to add to their rosters in January and make the second half push towards glory or infamy.

There is no need to wait, however, until the end of the season to understand where teams are likely to finish. As has been the case each month this season, this blog takes a wisdom-of-models approach when evaluating where each club stands. The average value for each club’s title, top four, and relegation likelihoods are built upon the individual results from the following six models:

Two weeks ago this blog pointed out that Arsenal had finally taken the lead in the overall title forecast, although there was counterbalancing data to suggest they were perhaps over performing considering the shots they are taking and conceding. They faced their first tough test away from home subsequent to that post, and lost 1-0 to Manchester United via a Robin van Persie goal. Arsenal wasn’t expected to pick up much more than a point in that match, so the loss had minimal impact on their title hopes that are still nearly 30%.

The far bigger beneficiary of the outcome of that match was Manchester United. Their win, while expected, did nearly double their title likelihood when combined with Chelsea’s draw and Manchester City’s loss. United is still a ways off from their pre-season likelihood, but may be slowly climbing back into the title picture after a rough start to the season.

Top Four Likelihood

Arsenal has also claimed the highest top four likelihood in the month since this blog last checked in on the models. Arsenal now has a nearly 4-to-1 shot of making next year’s Champion’s League tournament, with Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City not far behind. In fact, all of the top four teams are 1.75-to-1 or greater favorites of finishing in the top four versus the current fifth most likely to qualify, Liverpool.

Liverpool’s Champions League likelihood has stood virtually still over the last month, while Tottenham Hotspur’s likelihood has fallen by 5%. The current third place club, Southampton, is given less than a 5% chance of finishing in the Top Four. They face a big test this weekend, traveling to London to play Arsenal.

Relegation

There has been very little change in the clubs most likely to be relegated come next May. Cruystal Palace is all but relegated, with only the bookmakers not giving them of 3-to-1 odds or higher of going down. Bookmakers are equally skeptical of Sunderland going down, seeing Hull City as a much more likely candidate for relegation. Overall, the six models see five teams – Norwich, Cardiff, West Ham, Stoke, and Fulham – with between a 20% and 25% of being relegated.

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