Oscar predictions: Final pre-nomination rankings

We’re now only a week away from the Oscar nominations, and this morning’s BAFTA nominees announcement certainly spiced things up a bit. So it’s time for me to put my money where my mouth has been for the last few months and settle on my final predictions in the eight major categories.

The strong BAFTA showings for Tinker Tailor and Drive raised their stock a bit, but it’s probably too little too late to impact the Academy results. Meanwhile, War Horse has seen its Oscar hopes fade significantly by failing to earn nominations from the Directors Guild or in any major BAFTA races. Below the top five films on my list is a very crowded and evenly matched field of potential contenders, which makes me wonder if any of them will be able to score five percent of the overall No. 1 votes. So at this point, I’m thinking that after all the hype surrounding the Academy’s new voting rules, which allow for anywhere between five and 10 nominees, we may simply end up with five Best Picture candidates next Tuesday after all.

It’s never prudent to bet against the DGA. So whether or not Dragon Tattoo lands in the Best Picture race, Fincher is still a great bet for his second consecutive Oscar nod. But if Tate Taylor is able to muscle his way into this category, then The Help will be well within striking distance for the Best Picture win.

Falling off: Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; George Clooney, The Ides of March

By including The Iron Lady’s Jim Broadbent and The Ides of March’s Philip Seymour Hoffman on its list of five nominees, BAFTA confirmed that this is by far the kookiest category of the year. Plummer, Branagh, and Hill are in. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Will SAG nominees Nolte and Hammer sneak in? Can critical favorite Brooks mount a comeback after being overlooked by SAG and BAFTA? Or can someone like Von Sydow or Kingsley be the surprise acting nominee of the year? Nothing would make me happier than to see Nolte recognized for Warrior. But I’m going with Brooks and – my way-out-on-a-limb choice, given how much the movie has faded – Von Sydow. So let me have it.

I know I’m getting a lot of static from many of you for putting McCarthy at No. 2 in this race. It’s important to remember that she’s landed on every major list except the Golden Globes, and that oversight is most certainly a direct result of the fact that (as with Taraji P. Henson for Benjamin Button a few years ago) the HFPA chose not to have a press conference with her. There’s a lot of industry affection for Bridesmaids, and though Spencer probably has the win in the bag, McCarthy is a very viable contender. As cool as it was to see Mulligan’s name among the BAFTA nominees, that it was for Drive and not Shame (for which she was a semifinalist in the lead category) probably does nothing except confirm that she won’t get an Oscar nod for either one. The only question in my mind is whether Woodley can capitalize on all the love for The Descendants. But if she does, whom does she displace? If anyone, it may be McTeer.