Relatively quiet hurricane season forecast

The Atlantic hurricane season begins in a little more than a week, and at this time of year everyone wants to know whether it will be a busy year.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters don't think so.

On Thursday, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their seasonal outlook for 2014, predicting eight to 13 named storms would form. This means, most likely, the Atlantic season total will fall below the normal 12 tropical storms and hurricanes during a given year.

Like NOAA's, other seasonal forecasts issued this spring have predicted 75 to 90 percent of normal activity levels this year. The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The reality, of course, is seasonal forecasting is far from an exact science. Last year, for example, seasonal forecasters spectacularly failed after predicting a blockbuster season and subsequently just two hurricanes formed. One season, however, does not invalidate the science, and seasonal forecasters tend to get it right more often than not.

Forecasters cite many reasons to believe there will be less activity than normal this season, forecasters say.

Moderating factors

Principally, they expect El Niño to develop this summer in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, a rise in tropical Pacific sea temperatures, has global weather effects including stronger wind shear in the Atlantic tropics, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical systems.

"Atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical Pacific are already taking on some El Niño characteristics," said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster.

Other factors are suggested as well. A number of signs suggest water temperatures in the area of the Atlantic Ocean where storms most commonly form, between Africa and the Caribbean Islands, will be a bit cooler than normal later this summer.

"Cooler water means less heat content available for hurricanes to intensify, resulting in fewer strong hurricanes than normal," said Chris Hebert, a hurricane forecaster with ImpactWeather, a Houston-based company.

Additionally, a high-pressure system centered over the central Atlantic Ocean, referred to as the Bermuda High, should be stronger than normal. This increases wind shear over waters where tropical systems can form.

Finally, forecast models have indicated for some time that, during the warmer summer months when most tropical systems develop, air pressures will be higher over the Atlantic and the air will be drier.

"I think the consistency of this modeling is one important factor," said Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist with Accuweather, another private weather company. "All of this works against having long, drawn-out periods of tropical development."

Heed the warnings

Of course, forecasters always caution, it only takes one storm to make it a bad hurricane season for a homeowner.

In Houston, for example, just four storms developed in 1983. But one was Alicia, which remains the last major hurricane to make landfall in Houston.

Hurricane Ike, although large and powerful, remained a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

"No matter what the forecast, people in coastal areas need to prepare just as they would any season," Hebert said.