Can Nadal Beat Djokovic In Montreal? A Canadian Will Await In The Final

by Sean Randall | August 10th, 2013, 12:18 am

138 Comments

The very best rivalry in all of tennis resumes tomorrow in Montreal. Of course I’m speaking of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal who’ll clash in a battle of the No. 1 player overall against the No. 1 man this year.

Nadal leads 20-15 in their series winning four of the last five. But all those matches were on clay, not on hardcourts which is Novak’s ground of choice and he leads Rafa 11-5 on it, winning the last four. And Djokovic has also dominated this Montreal event winning 13 straight matches at the Canadian Open the last two years with two titles.

What’s nice is both players come in injury-free and playing relatively well in this their first event since Wimbledon. After a shaky performance against Denis Istomin Thursday, tonight Djokovic destroyed a weak-minded Richard Gasquet 6-1, 6-2 in a rematch of their 2012 Toronto final. Nadal looked equally sharp punishing Australian qualifier Marinko Matosovic and the Spaniard is the only remaining player yet to drop a set.

“I am happy the way that I am playing this week,” Nadal said. “I am gonna fight for the match tomorrow. I am excited to play against a very tough opponent, one of the best, the best today. I need to play my best tomorrow if I want to have any chance.”

Added Djokovic, who spoke before knowing who he’d play on Saturday, “For me it’s very important to try to start well tomorrow against whoever I play. You know, if I’m playing as well as I did today, I think I have a chance to really win against anybody on this court.”

With way Djokovic has looked since Dubai – good but not consistently great – Nadal has a real shot here. But I think Djokovic, if he plays well, will prevail.

I said at the start of the week Rafa would be content if he were to lose to Novak in the semifinals. Nadal’s been through a lot with the injuries, the early Wimbledon loss and hardcourts really isn’t what he builds for. So he’s got to pleased with his week. The knee has been good. He got fought through a tough match with Jerzy Janowicz. Win or lose I think he’s feeling good, feeling healthy and I wonder if he does got all out to beat Novak – remember they play long, grinding, physical matches – might he re-injure his knee?

Whereas for Novak, he absolutely needs this title. And he needs it more than Nadal does. I’ve mentioned before that Novak has just the one title since Dubai (Monte Carlo, beating Rafa) and the last two times he’s played Top 5 players he’s lost – Murray at Wimbledon and Nadal at the French. For a guy ranked No. 1 who hopes to finish the year on top that has to change.

That said, if Nadal were to beat Novak and go on to win Montreal, I think he’d have the mental edge over Novak going into the US Open, assuming Nadal doesn’t lose to him next week in Cincinnati (my guess is if Nadal wins Montreal he’ll skip Cincinnati anyway.)

Still, though, with much more on the line for Novak I give him the very slight edge here.The pick: Djokovic in two

In the earlier 3pm semifinal, two Canadians will have the place rocking as the surprising Vasek Pospisil meets his good friend Milos Raonic.

The 22-year-old Raonic might be younger by six months but he’s is the higher ranked player and the better overall talent of the two. I recall watching Pospisil play a summer or two ago in Canada and he reminded me of a lightweight Tomas Berdych. And Thursday he showed some of that raw talent beating one Mr. Berdych.

But Raonic’s serve is such a monster weapon that if it’s firing I think he wins. That single shot is the decider in this match.

Both guys, though, might come in a little tired. Pospisil enters having played and won nine matches in the last 10 days or so (he won the Vancouver Challenger over the weekend), but he enjoyed a nice break today when Nikolay Davydenko abruptly retired three games in with a respiratory issue.

Raonic, who was embroiled in that controversy with Juan Martin Del Potro Thursday night, struggled at times today in an ugly 3-set win over Ernest Gulbis. (I have to admit Gulbis, despite hitting 4 double faults to hand an early break to Raonic in the third, actually played some very nice, very smart tennis at times. Maybe there’s hope after all?)

“He won,” Raonic said. “He won most of them as a junior, if not all of them… Most of the tournaments came down to us. There was also another junior back then that was playing really well. Most of the events were between the three of us.”

Now though it’s the seniors and if Raonic wants to be a big star and live up to the potential he’s got to win here. Like Djokovic, I’ll go with the guy who needs it more, and that’s Milos.The pick: Raonic in three

In the women’s semifinals, no surprise it’s Serena Williams who’s the favorite among the final four in Toronto. Serena will meet Agnieszka Radwanksa. In the other semi it’s Li Na against Sorana Cirstea.

ESPN2 will have coverage starting at 1pm with Toronto then the 3pm Canadian battle from Montreal. Nadal/Djokovic will be under the lights at 8pm.

Sean,
Nice wrapped up. We will see how Rafa fares Nole tomorrow. Win or lose , I am happy with what he has done so far.
And my double happiness is you don’t pick Rafa .☺☺ Being honest I am pretty freak out with your chosen winner.

Rafa vs Novak should be a very interesting match and I am keeping my fingers crossed. Both are playing near their best and it should only be a toss up. However, considering that it is hard courts, you can give a slight edge to Novak, may be 55:45 in my judgement. However, it will all boil down to the way they both serve and shots happening in important moments of the match. Nevertheless, it should be an engrossing match and the only dampener is that it is not a finals.

Thanks @Michael, this is what tipped it for me in going with Sean’s pick. Rafa’s first serve percentage has been a little low so far and this is a key stat for him as his second serve tends to be quite vulnerable.

I can see what he is trying to do, be aggressive, even with his serve so I hope this strategy starts bearing fruit closer to the USOpen, it has served him well so far.

Well as you rightly said, first serve holds the key. Rafa’s first serve percentage is near about 70% in this tournament which is good in my opinion. Not many players do that on a consistent basis like Rafa. But, I think Rafa’s chances will be more if he gets aggressive with his shot making rather than being timid and defensive. His bludgeoning forehand should start firing right from the start.

Brando,

Yes, even if Nadal gets beaten in the semis, it has been quite a fruitful tournament for him considering that it came after a break. But, knowing Rafa, he will be fighting on the court till the last point and his opponent too has similar characteristics. So, the two best fighters in the game taking one another. A treat to watch.

Is that Rafa’s first serve stat for the whole tourny so far, 70%? That’s not too shabby, I thought that was only for yesterday. I think Rafa is still adjusting to the fast courts, hence the rather high UEs. He looked a little rushed in his ball striking.

@nadalista, he’s been serving well the whole tourney so far. He can still improve on it though. He made a few DFs yesterday. Hope it’s just 0-2 DF against Novak.

Agree with others that Novak has the slight edge going into the match, like 55-45. They both looked sharp in their quarter final matches. Novak’s was the more impressive of the two. The world no.1 is in some scary form at the moment. But I think Rafa’s ready for their battle. Rafa came out yesterday and played aggressive right from the word go. Matosevic, unlike Gasquet against Novak, held his nerves and tried to fight back. He got 62% of his first serves in play against Rafa yesterday. Gasquet against Novak could only get 39% of first serves in. Matosevic tried but he was never going to outplay Rafa who’s beginning to play well.

I have no doubt that Rafa is going to try his best to beat Novak for the first time on a HC since the 2010 US Open final. He might not need the Montreal title as much as Novak does but he needs to beat no.1 guy if he is to overtake him in the ranking at some point. Whoever wins this match will most likely win the title too. The Montreal crowd’s gonna love this showdown.

@Brando, I don’t think Jerzy’s gonna consistently dominate the men’s tour but he’ll always be a difficult opponent for most players. I agree he can win a Slam at some point in his career. Perhaps in the next 2-3 years?

@Giles: Relax Giles. Don’t even bother with it. IMHO in the world of fandom you will find full of @@@@ fans on all sides. NO one fanbase is better or worse than another. And IF you hear voices propogating the brilliance of one and awfulness of another: ignore them as those voices generally tend to subscribe to no perception of reality but to their own prejudice against other fan groups (eg daily episodes on here). We are here since we love the game and that’s played by some wonderful players who are all the same in the main: nole is as wonderful a character as any and as full of @@@@ as any. No better or worse, just like the rest. Besides: NONE of these guys are seeking to become the next Pope so saintly behaviour is not expected nor desired really. I love to see non conformist behaviour on show: even if it pisses a few people off- as long as I’m not one of the peeved bunch. So nole: keep your shirt on buddy as it usually means bad times for the one’s I root for, and Rafa: vamos like crazy as if it’s the last time you’ll ever get to say such a thing on court!:-)

@James. Dance moves only if he wins. So let’s hope he is off the court as quick as dammit! Lol
@Brando. If only I could relax, that’s just asking too much. But am going to try my best, no?
V A M O S R A F A!!

I have my WTA and ATP predictions for the day up here – http://www.tennisabides.com I think Novak wins today as a small measure of revenge, but I think Rafa is also pointing toward NY. If Rafa wins this event he will be hard to catch in the 2013 rankings race.

the dolphins won their pre-season game yay! Picked Djokovic to win this in my bracket and it is probably the right pick but would be delighted if Rafa can make it a great match at the very least. I hope Rafa wins and condemns me to the worst bracket in history but I agree with Sean’s orginal analysis. However, I don’t think Rafa will be delighted with a semi now. If you asked at the beginning of the week he would have taken it but now that he is there I am sure he wants the tittle. that’s how champions are

I’ll follow my heart and vote for Nadal..
And 2 reasons for this:
– I see him enjoying the game, and without serious physical problems; in those conditions he is the world’s best, IMO.
– I consider that the mental issue is on his side, at this time.

@gonzalowski, Novak is a safer bet in today’s match. Having seen both their matches yesterday, Novak was more impressive playing near perfect. But Rafa’s ready for the challenge imo. Will Rafa beat Novak tonight? I dunno. Can he? Hell yes! Vamos RafA!

I would love for a Rafa win here,but my heads saying Nole with this been a HC,i hope its an open and well contested match whatever the result,Nole IMO is the one under more pressure,he surely wants to reassert his aurthority over his rivals,and his no1 ranking could be under threat from his rivals,also he wants to make a mark ahead ahead of the USO,my two cents.

Rafa has done the smart thing getting some HC match practice ahead of the USO,he went to Wimbledon cold turkey with no GC matches under his belt,which was not a good idea as it turned out,dont know about his chances at the USO,but if he gets on a good run he could be a dark horse.

do you realize the implication of “legalizing doping?” like i said before, the word “integrity” doesn’t mean anything anymore. it’s shameful to even think such a thing, but then, i guess, this is what the sport has been dragged down to. how about raising the bar demanding that athletes play by the rules or suffer the consequences.

Mem, I don’t know. I’m guessing you read the article. The testing will never catch up to the doping. Testing positive is nearly impossible. Not only do players know how to cycle on and off, but there are masking agents as well. There’s also the substances that, I know, players are taking now that are legal but will probably be illegal in 5 years. What do we do about those? I don’t know. If they legalize doping, then maybe they can actually regulate it. Perfect the drugs so that they help but don’t hurt. I mean come on, isn’t a protein shake technically performance enhancing?

you are very myopic in your reasoning. to be honest, your comments sound scary. i don’t think you understand the implications of what you are suggesting.
regardless of how you word it to sound logical, it’s a sad day in tennis or any sport when people start considering “legalizing drugs” to solve the problem or to increase chances for all players to perform better. what has happened to discipline and hard work? what has happened to morals and values? do you understand that athletes earn millions and millions of dollars to win on their own merit. im sure you, like some others are searching for an easy way out. no one said that catching cheaters is going to be easy, but sports make billions of dollars that enable them to set in motion strategies to help expose deceivers/cheats, while simultaneously sending a message to other athletes that cheating will not be tolerated.

So, the big day arrived.
If Novak wins-Big for Novak,and also to get monkey off his back ( maybe is more proper to say-Spanish bull off his back?)
If Novak loses….hmmmm.I don’t know what will be the worst-Novak loosing points, Rafa getting in to his head and probably loosing his No1 ranking by the end of year? Or seeing 1000 VAMOS from Giles and Steve27 next two days? Probably later….

Mem, I just don’t see a solution that’ll ever work. Again, a protein shake is technically performance enhancing. So is food. So is Gatorade. Is a cortisone shot performance enhancing? They could be. So can ibuprofen. We want to advance as humans, right? To me, that’s what pro athletes are, the next level of evolution. The things they take that allow them to perform the feats they perform, to recover the way they do (not just from physical performances but from injuries, too), they’re above us. Super human.

Do you know how little research has actually been conducted on anabolic steroids? We have some ideas on the harmful effects, but nothing definitive. It’s a hard thing to conduct experiments with. But maybe if there was more funding, they could figure out how to make them provide the boosting effects without all of the negative side effects (of which very few are known in the first place).

Sports make billions of dollars and yet the ITF has a budget of 1.5 MILLION dollars for their entire anti-doping system. Nothing can be done with that.

i see where you are coming from. you choose to find reasons why it can’t be done, and i choose to find reasons why it can be done. of course it won’t be easy, but it is necessary to perserve the future of tennis! what is so scary to me is that you choose to plant this kind of dangerous seed in the minds of future generation athletes. do you understand that your kind of talk is harmful? you are sending a message to youngsters who are in the developmental stage of their chosen sport; you are sending a message to kids who are working toward becoming pro athletes that taking drugs to perform better is ok. if you have had any education at all about drugs, you would know full well that using one drug can potentially lead to using another and another until young lives are completed destroyed. this is the implication of what you are suggesting and the fact that you promote this kind of thing is quite disturbing.

we can discuss this until doom’s day and we will never see eye to eye on this particular topic. there are no statistics or dollar amounts that you can point to that will make your argument sound rational.

Mem, funny that you bring up younger generations. You know why I’m against doping? Because of them. I don’t care who’s already doping. Nadal, Djokovic, Lebron, Armstrong, whatever. Couldn’t care less. It’s the younger generation. I think it’s absolute bs that a kid plays tennis (or whatever sport) his whole life with aspirations of being a great player, then reaches a fork in the road where he either has to settle for mediocrity or no career at all OR start doping to catch up to everyone else so that he can compete with them. That’s my number 1 issue with doping. No, sports shouldn’t become about science, it shouldn’t be a medical race, and no one should have to be forced into this decision.

I’m just not seeing a light at the end of this tunnel. The more I learn about this stuff, the more I read about what’s going on, the less hope I have. Maybe Lance was “trying to justify” his doping during his career, but I think we all know cycling is just muddled with this stuff and he did what he had to do. He was okay with it. But not everyone will be. And not everyone should have to be. And yet here with are.

Neither player has looked anywhere close to their best. Raf looks a bit better though. Djok hasn’t looked very convincing given his high standards on hard courts. The Gasquet rout is not an apt indicator since Gasquet was woeful. I think Djok is a bit vulnerable at the moment and Raf is just the kind of player who could take advantage since I’d expect him to be more consistent and less error-prone. Djok has to raise his level and, of late, he hasn’t really been able to do so in big matches. I get the feeling that Raf’s chances are brighter than Djok’s. I hope this turns out to be a cracker because I don’t expect the final to be very competitive.

Another game where Djoko missed oportunities. Seems some times he doesn’t know what shot to hit.
Tense times from now to the end. A break can be critical. I am hoping for a tiebreak. Most fiiting end for this tigh match.

Brando, Nadal didn’t do it on purpose. I think Djokovic was more upset about his shot selection. Plus everyone gets extremely pissed when they’re hit in the face or head when if it’s accidental. Novak accepted the apology at the net. It didn’t affect the outcome of the match. No point in discussing it further.

You are righr Legend and he got #1 yet again, 1 year later. But he did;-) so this is a sign Nadal will get #1 again this year.
Cincy outcome will be interesting.

Regarding Nadal undefeated on HC. He seems more focised than clau matches and he changes completely now for HC. Ok, hos core base still is counter punching, extreme defense and good margina but is evident the changes he made for HC. Clay he construct the point more calm. Here he has to pull the trigger sooner and qas wrong footong Djoko with some
BH DTL after slices on tht corner. He won all points after aplying this. His serve is faster, gping for more aces, he had 7. Return inside the court and he was smacking the ball. No wonder he is gettig the results. He is playing better on HC than clay.