“That one can convince one’s opponents with printed reasons, I have not believed since the year 1764. It is not for that purpose that I have taken up my pen, but rather merely to annoy them, and to give strength and courage to those on our side, and to make it known to the others that they have not convinced us.”
G.C. Lichtenberg (1742 – 1799), courtesy of 'Deogolwulf'

Thursday, 02 February 2012

Hope 'n' Change!

Well, we must all cross our fingers in the hope that Obama loses and that a change will occur in the White House and on this cold arctic morning I bring you both courtesy of Gallup as reported by Con Carroll in The Washington Examiner:

According to Gallup:

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico. (My emphasis)

Hawaii! But . . . but . . . wasn't he born there? Yes, of course he was, how could anyone doubt it? However, the main point is that if he went down from 47% to 44% in his third year approval ratings then how far will he drop in his fourth year? I seem to remember some American 'wiseacre' writing that if he ended up in the very low 40s then he was dead meat. Shame - not!

Now, it is a truth universally acknowledged, by which I mean that the 'Memsahib' believes it completely, that I do not understand women. Proof, were it needed, can be found in the, to me, incomprehensible behaviour of MDS (My Darling Sarah) Palin. She is such a tease, that girl, and whilst chaps quite like a little bit of teasing it can only go on for just so long. She teased us over whether or not she would stand herself, and now she is acting all coy over whether or not she will endorse Newt Gingrich. She tells people to vote for him in the primaries but holds back from total commitment. Alana Goodman at Commentary offers an explanation but doesn't sound too convinced:

So why no endorsement? There are plenty of possible explanations, but two initially come to mind. First, Palin could lose whatever remains of her reputation as a “kingmaker” if she throws her weight behind Gingrich and he loses. Second, she could be holding out hope for a brokered convention – plenty of conservatives still do – and maybe thinks she could end up getting tapped for the nomination.

We will, no doubt, continue to hear a great deal from her so long as she remains on Fox’s payroll. But as the primary season proceeds with more opportunities for her counsel to be ignored by GOP voters, her stock will continue to sink. All of which ought to remind Palin’s credulous fans as well as journalists that the idea of her influence over Republican voters is more myth than reality.

Oh Sarah, my Sarah, if only you had replied to my letters I could have advised you and all would have been well. Women! Heh!

Comments

Normally I’d not post this site on these esteemed pages of D&N but I’ve a purpose David. No, don’t bother reading the swill, just scroll down to the map. Notice all those orange colored counties in the north of Florida, that orange block further south and more toward the center? Probably doesn’t register much for Brits but those orange counties actually form a word:

TROUBLE.

More specifically, Trouble for the Establishment Republicans. Simple demographics actually.

Those northern Florida counties very closely match the general US South where that finely boned, well-chiseled featured Mr. Romney isn’t so very likely to match the percentages he enjoyed so very recently. That block in the center? Well there’s where you’ll be finding Hispanics. The Cuban-Americans are slightly further south.
I’m going somewhat out on a limb here – figure Santorum to pick up quite a few women no no no – not the Gingrich way of picking up women! But those young Rick might not pick up, Newt most likely will.

True far as it goes. Just those pesky northern counties where native Floridians reside. Throws a spanner into the Romney inevitability - watch for Super Tuesday. The Republicans will carry the South.

The problem is gonna be if no single candidate emerges the obvious victor. No consensus victor - a brokered convention and I wouldn't wager any actual money (even denominated in Euros) against Obama winning a second term.

"Actual Latino voters -- who accounted for 14 percent of the Florida primary turnout -- rendered a different verdict. Romney won the Hispanic vote with a 54 percent majority. Gingrich came in a distant second at 29 percent. Breaking down the numbers further, Romney beat Gingrich 57 percent to 31 percent among Cuban-Americans and 52 percent to 23 percent among non-Cuban Hispanics."

Well Obama made it last time, Hank! Also, I don't see anything particularly unelectable about Romney. In a way, the fact that he is such a 'machine politician' puts me off slightly but I think it is essential for enough Americans to keep repeating until November "ABO" - Anyone But Obama!