Political risk declines in the USA, jumps in Europe

In a first one-hour presidential speech before the US Congress, President Donald Trump significantly lowered the political risk of which potential for instability Cyceonwarned about. Described as “presidential”, “smart” and “dynamic,” Trump gave a speech welcomed as a great relief by his Republican majority.

Urging them “to believe, once more, in America,” Trump called for the “renewal” of America without falling into his usual tricks that made him both controversial and popular. According to our sources, this speech will mark the true beginning of the Trump Presidency and show that behind the showman there is a president well aware of his duties.

In Europe, on the other hand, Cyceon warns of an increased political risk, particularly in France. While the Les Républicains (LR)’s nominee for the French presidential election Francois Fillon would be himself in greater judicial difficulty, the data collected so far would show a more favorable dynamic for the Front National (FN)’s Marine Le Pen.

Without yet having the magnitude of the deep wave that brought Trump to power, Le Pen also seems to benefit from a popular adherence undervalued by the polls. However, Le Pen is not yet, said Cyceon, in a position to become with certainty the next French President as soon as May 2017. Political risk also increases dramatically in France as doubts grow over the alleged inequality of judicial treatment against the right compared to the left.

These circumstances do increase the possibility of a surprise vote considering that the French, after the British and the Americans, might well wonder “after all, why not?”