If you believe the bookies League One is a two-horse race. While the Championship and League Two appear wide open, Leeds and Leicester loom over the third tier just as Elland Road and the Walkers Stadium dominate their surroundings.

Perhaps the clearest way to demonstrate why these two are such hot favourites is to play devil's advocate with the competition. Of the other relegated Championship sides Colchester were awful, and I mean awful, last year, and Scunthorpe, shorn of the goals of Billy Sharp and Jermaine Beckford who did so much to take them into that league, weren't much better. Of last season's League One play-off contenders, Carlisle imploded so spectacularly in the run in that they're still scraping themselves off the floor, while Southend, a team greater than the sum of their parts, crucially lacked a consistent goalscorer – a shortcoming that won't be addressed by the arrival of the ageing Paul Furlong. The Betfair boys seem to expect the greatest challenge to come from the promoted sides – MK Dons and Peterborough. Yet the Dons have lost their manager and seem set to lose their captain, while the Posh are almost entirely untried at this level. Leeds and Leicester it is then.

But I don't think it's quite that clear cut. Leicester, in particular, are going to find things tough. Ask any Forest, Manchester City, Sheffield Wednesday or, for that matter, Leeds fan how easy it is to bounce straight back. The mood is down, but expectancy is up. It'll only take one MK Dons goal at the Walkers Stadium on Saturday to bring reality crashing home.

Quite apart from the psychological battle, question marks hover over the playing staff and the manager, though I do like the look of Nigel Pearson's summer recruitment. The Leicester manager has had to reconstruct his back four after losing Gareth McAuley to Ipswich, Alan Sheehan to Leeds, Richard Stearman to Wolves and Patrick Kisnorbo to long-term injury. The talented England Under-21 Joe Mattock remains, Kerrea Gilbert has been brought in on loan from Arsenal, Jack Hobbs on loan from Liverpool and Harry Worley joins from Chelsea. The much-vaunted Michael Morrison has arrived from Cambridge and Bulgarian international Aleksander Tunchev adds ability and experience. League One is a tough place, though, and much depends on the ability of Gilbert (21), Hobbs (19), Mattock (18), Worley (19) and Morrison (20) to cope with the bruising Bas Savages, Tommy Mooneys and Luke Becketts of the division. Up front, DJ Campbell and Steve Howard, in contrast, will be hoping their best years are not behind them.

And it's hard not to have reservations about Pearson. His two full managerial stints (totalling a combined 44 games) have come at sides fighting for their lives, Carlisle in 1998-99 and Southampton last season, and to his credit, he kept both sides up against the odds. The Foxes, though, aren't expecting a year of fire-fighting.

That said, Leicester should still be challenging Leeds come May. The Yorkshire club earned the points for promotion last season (their 15-point penalty restricting them to the play-offs) despite losing Gus Poyet, then Dennis Wise to Tottenham and Newcastle respectively. If anything they should be stronger this year – their strength in depth would be the envy of several Championship clubs, while Jermaine Beckford has come of age as a goalscorer. He'll be aided and abetted by mystery man Luciano Becchio up front, a former Barcelona and Boca Juniors striker who was a prolific scorer in Spain's third division last season. Anything less than the title would be a failure.

I'd also expect to see Colchester challenging. They've got a bright manager in Geraint Williams and their summer additions have been eminently sensible. Steve Gillespie, brought in from Cheltenham, was a consistent goalscorer at this level last season, and he, along with Scott Vernon and Clive Platt, should ensure Kevin Lisbie's departure is not too keenly felt. The livewire David Perkins will add bustle to the midfield, while Matt Lockwood, Matt Heath and the stolid Paul Reid will firm up the back four in front of the talented goalkeeper Dean Gerken, so often exposed behind the Championship's worst defence last time out. Keeping Mark Yeates out of the clutches of Crystal Palace and co has also been an unexpected boost. Their move away from the crumbling delights of Layer Road to the spacious surroundings of the Weston Homes Community Stadium (a new contender for Britain's worst-named football ground?) should help offset those relegation blues.

While Milton Keynes might find it tricky to adjust to the higher level – the squad is undoubtedly strong but Roberto Di Matteo's appointment, though intriguing, doesn't inspire much confidence – their co-promotees Peterborough are likely to figure prominently. They have momentum, they have one of the best attacking forces in the division (Aaron Mclean has signed a new contract after handing in a transfer request earlier in the summer), they have an England goalkeeper, and, crucially, they have plenty in the bank. Darren Ferguson has kept his powder dry thus far, with Wycombe playmaker Sergio Torres the only cash signing, but with Darragh MacAnthony's millions behind him, it seems the only way is up.

Huddersfield, in their centenary year, should also be competitive. Gary Roberts, signed from Ipswich, is something of a throwback on the wing and likely to give League One full-backs a torrid time. The Terriers underachieved last season and Stan Ternent is certain to demand better. Southend should again be in the play-off shake-up and Carlisle, though they probably won't challenge as strongly as last season (the loss of goalkeeper Keiren Westwood to Coventry is a major blow), should figure in the fringes. Scunthorpe, Brighton, with Adam Virgo back in the fold three years after he left for Celtic, and the perennial contenders Tranmere should also go close.

Oldham have used their favourable geographic circumstance to sign the versatile Kieran Lee from Manchester United and they've also brought in Kevin Maher from Southend, a real organiser in midfield. Scouts have been sniffing around full-back Neil Eardley and winger Chris Taylor, but they remain at the club (for now at least) and if Craig Davies can convert those flashes of promise into a consistent 20-goal season – a target that the rugged Chris O'Grady's arrival from Rotherham makes eminently achievable - the Latics are certainly capable of going better than their 8th-placed finish last season. Walsall, bolstered by Stephen Hughes and Marco Reich, should also be sniffing around the play-offs, though the lack of a goalscorer may mean they fall short.

Of the other promoted sides, Stockport have lost the influential Ashley Williams to Swansea and the exciting, if erratic, Liam Dickinson to Derby, but they have brought in the classy Carl Baker from Morecambe and, in one of the more intriguing deals of the summer, Peter Thompson from Linfield, scorer of an improbable 44 goals in 50 games (career record: 152 goals in 234) for the Irish champions last season and subject of a bid from Norwich City over the summer. They and Hereford will find life tough, but should have the momentum to survive.

At the bottom, it could be a bad season for the West Country, with Cheltenham and Yeovil looking weak. Millwall's summer has been uninspiring, while Hartlepool are in danger of another yo-yo. It took Bournemouth's point penalty to save Crewe last season, and the loss of Nicky Maynard to Bristol City may condemn them to the drop. Anthony Elding and Calvin Zola have been brought in, but even between them they'll struggle to replace Maynard's goals. Leyton Orient were top at the end of November last year, but trailed off terribly thereafter, picking up just 26 points from their last 27 games - relegation form. Martin Ling will have his work cut out to keep them up.