With the federal election less than two weeks away, three Ottawa-area ridings remain neck-and-neck races, according to new riding polls conducted for Postmedia.

Mainstreet Research surveyed voters in five ridings in the National Capital Region, two days after the final leaders’ debate. The research firm found that the top two candidates in the ridings of Nepean, Kanata-Carleton and Pontiac were in a “statistical tie” two months into the marathon campaign.

The polls suggest that victory in each of the ridings could be determined in a photo finish on election day.

Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said strategic voting could play a decisive role in those outcomes, since national polls now suggest that the New Democrats are trailing the Liberals and Conservatives. Voters tend to stay loyal to their preferred parties on a riding level, he said, until the national picture comes into focus.

“So at this point, strategic voting does come into play,” he predicted.

In Ottawa Centre, NDP incumbent Paul Dewar holds a 12-percentage-point lead over his Liberal challenger, Catherine McKenna. In Ottawa West-Nepean, Liberal Anita Vandenbeld appears to be on her way to election victory: she holds an almost 20-point lead among leaning and decided voters over Conservative Abdul Abdi, according to the Mainstreet poll.

Mainstreet surveyed more than 600 voters in each of the Ottawa-area ridings, using interactive voice response telephone technology, on Sunday. In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results of those polls would not differ by more than 3.89 percentage points from results that would be obtained by interviewing all voters in the ridings. Here’s what the polling showed:

Kanata-Carleton

The riding’s two leading candidates, Conservative Walter Pamic and Liberal Karen McCrimmon, are in a dead heat, the Mainstreet poll suggests. Pamic leads McCrimmon 45 per cent to 43 per cent among leaning and decided voters, but the results represent a statistical tie since they fall within the poll’s margin of error. “With large numbers of both Liberal and Conservative supporters saying they’re ‘certain’ to vote, Kanata-Carleton is an excellent race to watch,” Maggi said.

Nepean

As in Kanata-Carleton, the Liberal and Conservative candidates in Nepean are in a pitched battle. Leaning and decided voters were almost equally divided between Liberal Chandra Arya (42 per cent) and Conservative Andy Wang (41 per cent). NDP candidate Sean Devine was a distant third at 13 per cent support in the Mainstreet poll.

Pontiac

NDP incumbent Mathieu Ravignat is fighting to hold on to his job in the face of a strong challenge from Liberal candidate William Amos. According to the Mainstreet poll, Ravignat (36 per cent) holds a one-point lead over Amos (34 per cent) among leaning and decided voters. Conservative candidate Benjamin Woodman remains a factor in the election, with 19-per-cent support.

Ottawa Centre

The riding’s NDP incumbent Paul Dewar holds 42-per-cent support among leaning and decided voters compared to 30 per cent for his nearest challenger, Liberal Catherine McKenna. Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos stands at 22-per-cent support, according to the riding poll. For now, Dewar’s seat looks safe, Maggi said, but he warned the riding “could be put into play” if the national NDP campaign continues to sputter.

Ottawa West-Nepean

The riding poll suggests Liberal candidate Anita Vandenbeld is poised to take the riding once dominated by Conservative cabinet minister John Baird. Vandenbeld (47 per cent) holds a comfortable lead over Conservative Abdul Abdi (29 per cent) among leading and decided voters.

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