June 01, 2017

StormTALK! Thursday Edition

DISCUSSION:Some good trends since my last update when it comes to thunderstorm chances. Drier air looks to linger longer into the start of the weekend. This will help keep a cap on the fuel the cumulus clouds would need to spike up. Having said that, we can't ruled out an isolated t-storm west/south.

Here is the breakdown:

Rest of today:North flow will keep driving in drier air. Highs will have no problem pushing into the 80s. Any rain risk is about to fade for our southern counties.

Friday:Dry air holds. Only the western/southern edges of WAVE Country on the fence when it comes to enough moisture for an isolated t-storm/downpour. Highs well into the 80s.

Saturday:Dry air starts to lose its gripe. However, it remains low enough that we can lower the rain chance down a bit. This time, it will be the northern/western/southern edges most at risk for a t-storm. Louisville to Lexington zone in slightly better shape. Either way, it will be hot and more humid. We will push 90 degrees. The amount of dry air around/scattered clouds will determine if we will reach that mark or not.

Sunday:Dry air leaves us. Humid air takes over. We should be dry at the start, but as the day wears on, thunderstorms will develop to our norther over southern Indiana. Too early to get specific on timing, but it looks like a midday-3pm start time there. After that, they will work their way through WAVE Country. If coverage looks to hold together as a solid line, we will raise the rain chance. But for now we kept it at 60% as there are still signs of a broken line. Some could be strong and/or briefly severe, but not widespread severe weather event expected.

NEXT WEEK:We will be on the backside of the low early next week. Depending on how much western influence the upper low will have, we could either be partly sunny or mostly cloudy. Highs generally in the 70s but if the western influence of the low is well....too far west...then we will barely crack 70 with a few rain chances along/west of I-65. We'll keep an eye on that. I will say the trends are to keep that low far enough away that we will be fine.

Potential for the heat to build after that point. I will break that down more in today's video: