Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has arrived in Mali for talks about European efforts to help the country's weak interim government. The visit comes amid talks of an African-led military intervention in Mali. [link to www.dw.de]

Quoting: insertfunnyusername

I thought it was interesting trip began in Senegal....

Now that Mauritania & Algeria will not be sending troops....there is a strong desire to get the Muslim countries in the region on board....

Islam is practiced by 94% of the population of Senegal (Wikipedia)

I think that's one of the highest percentages among the countries that are South of Mali...

Quoting: DarbyDoom

One thing is certain for me, shits getting real whenever ze Germans do visits and spiegel writes roadtrips.N.Mali is important geopoliticaly for the rest of the neighbors because this can spread very fast in their countries too. I won't be surprised at all if i see the small military group they are preparing for intervention losing hard and extremism expanding to the whole region. Seems that some people want this to happen, can't explain any other way the fiasco after fiasco we are seeing the last 2 years.

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

OH NO - IFUN WAS RIGHT AGAIN...

Boko Haram’s Growing Presence in Niger

. . . Due to the linguistic and cultural ties along the 950-mile Nigerian-Nigerien border, Nigerien Muslims can easily cross the border and assimilate into Boko Haram’s ranks. According to local reports in Niger, many Nigeriens have joined Boko Haram because of economic rather than religious or ideological motives (Africa Review [Nairobi], February 24). Unlike northern Nigeria, Niger does not have a legacy of religious extremism, but it is one of the world’s least developed and most impoverished nations. . .

article goes on to discuss ethnic links between Nigerian Islamist & Niger and economic reasons Islamic extremism is attractive in Niger...Also how instability in Mali is affecting Niger...

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has arrived in Mali for talks about European efforts to help the country's weak interim government. The visit comes amid talks of an African-led military intervention in Mali. [link to www.dw.de]

Quoting: insertfunnyusername

I thought it was interesting trip began in Senegal....

Now that Mauritania & Algeria will not be sending troops....there is a strong desire to get the Muslim countries in the region on board....

Islam is practiced by 94% of the population of Senegal (Wikipedia)

I think that's one of the highest percentages among the countries that are South of Mali...

Quoting: DarbyDoom

One thing is certain for me, shits getting real whenever ze Germans do visits and spiegel writes roadtrips.N.Mali is important geopoliticaly for the rest of the neighbors because this can spread very fast in their countries too. I won't be surprised at all if i see the small military group they are preparing for intervention losing hard and extremism expanding to the whole region. Seems that some people want this to happen, can't explain any other way the fiasco after fiasco we are seeing the last 2 years.

Quoting: insertfunnyusername

Northern Mali does have a surprising large number of long airstrips...

What's bad is the Germans always come in as the clean-up crew....So, it seems that TPTB think this whole thing is over before it has begun...

Peter Tinti, who is a North Africa expert, wrote that everyone is writing about how awful North Mali is under the Islamists...No one is talking about the economic boom they are causing...

I think there will be shock when the locals (the Islamists are locals for the most part) have some local support...

Quoting: DarbyDoom

Morning DD!I don't know what will happen in an intervention scenario tbh, the one thing i know is that the extremists are controlling an area bigger than France, this have big chances of spreading to neighboring countries that have not been affected by the Arab Spring much and tbh they are not that many left now.

Dunno, maybe i'm a bit pessimist, but tbh i've never seen the Mediterranean in such a mess and turmoil in my life, when all your neighbors have problems this affects us all, it's a very delicate region and off course i don't find coincidental that European Mediterranean countries face an economic and social crisis of epic proportions and Arab Mediterranean countries face wars and fundamentalism rebellions. These thing ain't happening by chance and they are moving very fast lately, Egypt is on the brink of Sharia law for crying out loud and Greece on the brink of bankruptcy. There is an obvious organized geopolitical plan played out here and it really worries me.

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

OH NO - IFUN WAS RIGHT AGAIN...

Boko Haram’s Growing Presence in Niger

. . . Due to the linguistic and cultural ties along the 950-mile Nigerian-Nigerien border, Nigerien Muslims can easily cross the border and assimilate into Boko Haram’s ranks. According to local reports in Niger, many Nigeriens have joined Boko Haram because of economic rather than religious or ideological motives (Africa Review [Nairobi], February 24). Unlike northern Nigeria, Niger does not have a legacy of religious extremism, but it is one of the world’s least developed and most impoverished nations. . .

article goes on to discuss ethnic links between Nigerian Islamist & Niger and economic reasons Islamic extremism is attractive in Niger...Also how instability in Mali is affecting Niger...

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

A ME expert I follow just predicted that there will be a civil war in Tunisia & Militants have just been arrested in Northern Morocco...

I almost hope there some grand plan... Things are so out of control - if this is in accordance with a plan, maybe the end result will not be a total collapse...

Quoting: DarbyDoom

My take unfortunately is not that upbeat, there will be a total financial collapse, population displacements, wars and border rearrangement based on an organized plan that it will end about 2020. Many people don't know this but at the same time that the "Great Middle East Project" started with the Gulf war in 1991, another project called "Mediterranean Union" was created and it's implementation started in Yugoslavia.

Since then we only see relations between Mediterranean countries escalating, old territorial disputes and rivalries reviving and with the new data of economic pressure and islamic fundamentalism this thing will really get out of hand. If this thing escalates in a world war, that i personally unfortunately believe it will, it won't be like the first 2 world wars that involved mostly European countries, things are far more complicated now with the Arabs and fundamentalism in the mix.

Also in the Mediterranean are located the biggest unexploited oil/gas resources after the Arctic ones but we can't go drill in the poles yet for various ecologic reasons. One thing is certain, it won't end well for millions of people, i won't lie here, i'm really worried!:(

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

Ansar Dine Joins Peace Talks

One of the radical Islamist groups controlling northern Mali, Ansar Dine, on Friday sent delegations to Algeria and Burkina Faso to hold peace talks, a source close to the extremists said. . .

Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore is the Economic Community of West African States-appointed mediator in the Malian crisis, and has pushed for a negotiated end to the occupation rather than the use of military force.

Regional heavyweight Algeria is seen as a key player in dealing with Islamic extremism in the Sahel.

The latest talks come as international experts meet in Bamako to firm up plans for an armed intervention to wrest northern Mali from the hands of the Islamist groups which are to be presented to the U.N. in late November.

In “Mali: Polisario Connection,” Jeune Afrique reports that as Jihadists in Northern Mali – AQIM, MUJAO, and Ansar Dine – feverishly organize in Timbuktu, Gao, and elsewhere for an international military intervention, new recruits have joined them from the Polisario-run Sahrawi refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria and elsewhere across Africa’s Sahel.

Jeune Afrique cites French intelligence reports that groups of 40-60 men, up to 300 volunteers, arrived in Timbuktu and Gao during October, many of whom express themselves in Hassaniya, the Arabic dialect used by Moors and Sahrawis.

The article cites the October 21 press reports by AFP and others that members of the Polisario Front joined the Jihadists in Northern Mali, which the separatist group immediately denied. Jeune Afrique notes, however, that the presence of Salafi Jihadism in the camps “is not a recent phenomenon.” An investigation into radical Islam in the camps shows a presence as early as the late 1990s, and links between radicalism Islam in the camps and terrorism appear as early as 2003 . .

Jeune Afrique says neither the Polisario Front nor Algerians have been able to stop the “Salafist virus” among young people in the Tindouf camps, and have been even less able to prevent these “desperados” from leaving the camps to join jihadist movements. While Algerian and Polisario security forces now police the Tindouf camps together, the extremist appeal remains strong for young Sahrawis, and “no roadblock, no patrol, no minefield will prevent [them] from taking the path to Timbuktu.”

Jeune Afrique, by Francois Soudan (Paris, France, Oct. 28, 2012) – See the full feature story, “Mali: Polisario Connection,” available in French in the current issue of the Paris-based magazine Jeune Afrique at: [link to moroccoonthemove.files.wordpress.com]

I think Goodluck Jonathan has the best political name EVER...An extremely difficult job...but great name....

Looks like they've gotten the one actual Taureg Islamist group to switch sides...

Ansar Dine (Mali Islamists) ready to cut ties with al Qaeda -

Malian Islamist group Ansar Dine has said it is prepared to distance itself from Al-Qaeda's North Africa branch, a newspaper said on Saturday, a day after sending a delegation to Algiers for peace talks.

Ansar Dine's leader Iyad Ag Ghaly "would be ready to officially distance himself from AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) and play the 'democracy' game," El-Watan reported, citing an Algerian official.

A statement from Ghaly could be expected in "the next few days," the "credible" source added, saying that the Islamist leader would cut ties with AQIM and instead support international dialogue on the Mali issue.

I think Goodluck Jonathan has the best political name EVER...An extremely difficult job...but great name....

Looks like they've gotten the one actual Taureg Islamist group to switch sides...

Ansar Dine (Mali Islamists) ready to cut ties with al Qaeda -

Malian Islamist group Ansar Dine has said it is prepared to distance itself from Al-Qaeda's North Africa branch, a newspaper said on Saturday, a day after sending a delegation to Algiers for peace talks.

Ansar Dine's leader Iyad Ag Ghaly "would be ready to officially distance himself from AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) and play the 'democracy' game," El-Watan reported, citing an Algerian official.

A statement from Ghaly could be expected in "the next few days," the "credible" source added, saying that the Islamist leader would cut ties with AQIM and instead support international dialogue on the Mali issue.

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

Agreed, best name ever! So does it mean that we'll hit'em now that they won't play ball with Al-Qaeda? Seems to me that we are handing over African countries to Al-qaeda with ease the last 2 decades.

Quoting: insertfunnyusername

Ag Ghaly is a famous turncoat...He sold out the Tauregs during the last uprising in the 1990s. That is one of the reasons he was passed over for the leadership position in the MNLA...I think that's also how he ended up with the Saudi Embassy job...

So, Ansar Dine may end up being one of our allies in the upcoming war in Mali. Somewhat akin to LIFG in Libya...

I don't think it will make much of a difference. The scary Islamists are MUJWA. They are ethnic Arabs (Moors) and they aren't changing sides. AQIM (leadership at least) is 100% Algerian - so this won't affect them either...

AQIM in Algeria recently replaced their #2 man in Mali - he'd gotten too involved in smuggling & strayed from Jihad. I think his name is Al Belmokhtar...

Mokhtar Belmokhtar removed from his command in the Sahel by AQIM [link to xfru.it]

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

French Media Report on Qatari NGOs in Mali....

. . . Humanitarian organizations and international NGOs are troubled by the approach of Qatari NGOs . . .

(The Locations in which the Qatari NGOs operate has raised questions) to the point that some see a more political than humanitarian purpose. They plant a flag in strategic locations (such as the military hospital in MUJAO-controlled GAO)...

(One civil society worker in Gao said) Since they arrived, they deceive everyone ... They are there to help Mujao, financially and logistically," .. ... According to him, humanitarian action is only a cover.... "In Gao, they are very close Mujao."

(A local official in the city of Menaka confirms) "When I asked the Qatari Red Crescent to intervene in a humanitarian project, I was told that was not possible because the Mujao was not present in Menaka." . . .

(There are also questions about Qataris in Niger) In Niamey, (Qataris advertise) tenders for the construction of health centers, wells, and hydraulic systems. "These are only rough blankets to justify the money that is poured onto unsavory partners, who are far from development". . .

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

DD,kudos to you.Excellent work.

A friend of mine was approached by the CIA in the late 90s-they want him to become the President of Afghanistan after a few shenanigans. He told them to suck eggs.After 911 they came to him again-eventually he left the USA,and the CIA picked Karzai for the job.

I bring this up to demonstrate that nothing happens by accident.Wars,deployments,battles and payoffs are all planned in advance.

We use assets that we have funded (Al-Q,Talibans,Brotherhoods etc) via cutouts-Saudi UAE Qatar to set the stage for our pre-planned asset acquisition initiative. But that has been the way of superpowers since Rome.

It is painful to watch the death and destruction that goes on in the world.But sadly,I have realized that nothing can be done to stop it.Those who want the benefits own either the media or own the media owners.The only avenue to get the word out to the wise is through sites like this-and even then only a handful grasp the importance.

But keep fighting the good fight. Hopefully someday everyone will learn that war is only good for the profiteers.

Morning DD! When the coup happened they had about 3500, i fully expect them to have more now. They still are not many though to control such a huge area, reinforcements from other countries are heading there daily.

Morning DD! When the coup happened they had about 3500, i fully expect them to have more now. They still are not many though to control such a huge area, reinforcements from other countries are heading there daily.

Quoting: insertfunnyusername

I think the current number is an undercount....

Did the 3,500 number include MNLA? Some of those guys were killed when Ansar Dine/MUJWA/AQIM took over... A number of AQIM guys were also killed in that fight (including a few high-level commanders).... But the numbers of deaths was probably less than 100 (both sides)

This is just my CPA mind doing an initial head count. Of the 3,500, if we presume 2,500 were MNLA and 50 died... That gets you to 950... Then add back MNLA low-level defections (maybe 1,000?) That gets you to 1,950 w/o any new foreign fighters or new recruits... But they claim foreigners are streaming in & they have multiple training camps. So, presume between 4,000 to 6,000 (conservatively)...But then you reduce that by the number of Ansar Dine members who will accept the peace deal...The end number - I have no friggin idea (and I bet the Algerians are in the same boat)

Quoting: DarbyDoom

I too think it's an undercount. The 3500 includes MNLA, they were the majority with 3000 and the rest were the islamist groups, but this number is from the start of the year in the then conflict, i expect them to have recruit more and be more organized now with Qatari money flowing and reinforcements coming.

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

Economist Article on Upcoming War in Mali...

....A force of 3,000-plus soldiers from Mali’s lousy and demoralised army plus another 3,000 or so from ECOWAS will be backed by a contingent of a few hundred Western specialists, mainly from France and the United States, to provide intelligence, logistics, aerial firepower and surveillance (including drones), and perhaps small contingents of special forces. . .

No one is confident of the outcome. The three main towns now in the hands of the Islamists—Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu—will probably be recaptured in due course. But whether the rebels can be completely expunged from the Sahara desert’s vast and rugged swathe of northern Mali is much less certain. . .

(discusses Ansar Dine's negotiations)

But some say Ag Ghali’s influence is waning—and that his defection from the jihadist front would not make much difference. He founded Ansar Dine only, it is said, after failing to win the leadership of the Tuaregs’ MNLA, which is relatively secular. He may also have been embittered by his failure to win the chieftaincy of the Kidal Tuareg tribal confederacy. And despite Ansar Dine’s brutal application of sharia law, doubt has been cast on Ag Ghali’s own piety. His current Salafist bent may date from a recent stint as a Malian diplomat in Saudi Arabia...

But whatever the sincerity of Ag Ghali and his comrades and the possibility of persuading them to come onside, it is clear that al-Qaeda itself has a growing presence in northern Mali—and that it can be contained only by a carefully designed military and political strategy. That cannot happen overnight.

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

According to AFP - MUJWA's Only Black Commander & His Men Defect

The head of an armed Islamist battalion in northern Mali said Thursday he has defected and returned to his home country in neighbouring Niger, slamming the extremists he worked with as "lunatics". . .

Hicham Bilal was the leader of a katiba for the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) . . .He was the only black African to hold such a high position in an area dominated by light-skinned Tuareg and Arabs.

"These lunatics from MUJAO are not children of God, they are drug traffickers. They do everything which goes against Islam and to them, a black man is inferior to an Arab or a white," he said. . .

Re: Watch as it Develops - The Staged War Against Islamists in Northern Mali

Foreign air power is crucial to Mali battle plan

Malian troops backed by foreign air power will lead the assault to recapture northern cities from al Qaeda-linked militants, under a battle plan now being considered, Malian army sources said. . .

"International forces will not do the ground fighting, that role will belong to the Malian army," a military officer familiar with the plan . . .

"Air strikes will be the responsibility of the international force," he said, adding foreign partners would also provide logistical and intelligence support and soldiers and police to secure areas captured by the Malian army.

The plan covers a six-month period, with a preparatory phase for training and the establishment of bases in Mali's south, followed by combat operations in the north.

A second Malian military source said the army expected Islamist rebels to try to avoid conventional fighting by slipping away into remote mountains or blending in with local populations.

"That is the main problem, and it will fall to our intelligence services to solve it," he said.