Thursday, September 22, 2016

Will the U.S. Expat Vote Go to Clinton?

According to Breitbart.com, there will be a "Soros-Linked 'October Surprise That Will End Trump'". The article goes on to explain that a registered U.S. charity linked to George Soros - Avaaz -, is hoping the 8 million American expats living abroad will register to vote and vote overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton.

If Avaaz manages to get its wish, it will indeed be an October surprise. The Breitbart article points out that 88% of Americans living abroad did not register to vote in the last U.S. Presidential election. Getting these disaffected Americans to buck the trend would be quite an achievement.

Avaaz believes that a majority of these expats are progressives and maintains that these overseas voters could decide the election for POTUS.

I believe Avaaz may not get the results they're looking for. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that millions of Americans living abroad decide to register and vote in this election, and let's assume that the majority of these voters do vote for Clinton, there is no reason to believe that their votes will have any effect on the outcome. There is, after all, a little thing called the Electoral College and the overseas vote will be thrown into that mix.

If the election were decided by popular vote, 8 million voters (which Avaaz likens to the 13th largest State) would be a formidable number. But when these voters are shoved into the Electoral College mess, their vote won't be as awe inspiring as Avaaz imagines it will be. It all breaks down into which particular State the individual voter is registered in. Five million expat voters registered in a Blue State like California or Washington or Illinois will be wasting their time voting, if Clinton is their candidate. Hillary will most assuredly win those States, and adding an additional four, five, or six million Clinton voters won't mean diddly squat.