KILAUEA VOLCANO Recent Observations at Kilauea summit: Summit tilt, as recorded by a network of tiltmeters located around the summit caldera, recorded a second weak DI deflation after the 27-hour-long DI event yesterday; the long-term trend since the strong DI inflation on November 8 has been slow inflation. The summit lava lake level dropped a little with the weak deflation yesterday but rose more dramatically during the now-ended period of DI inflation overnight; the lake level is still well below the inner ledge.

Recent Observations at the middle east rift zone vents:Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with flows advancing seaward across the coastal plain. Breakouts also continued low on the pali and on the coastal plain at the base of the pali. Webcam views showed the flow front nearest the coast continued to advance closer to the ocean overnight;if these flow lobes continued to advance at this rate, they could enter the ocean in the next few days.The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1534695

andHAZARD ALERT: Lava entering the ocean builds lava deltas. The lava delta and adjacent areas both inland and out to sea are some of the most hazardous areas on the flow field. Frequent delta/bench collapses give little warning, can produce hot rock falls inland and in the adjacent ocean, and can produce damaging local waves. The steam plume produced by lava entering the ocean contains fine lava fragments and an assortment of acid droplets that can be harmful to your health. The rapidly changing conditions near the ocean entry have been responsible for many injuries and a few deaths [link to hvo.wr.usgs.gov]

This graph shows the radial tilt at Uwekahuna (UWE), on the northwest rim of K&#299;lauea's caldera, and at Pu`u `O `O cone (POC), on the northwest flank of the active vent along the east rift zone, as recorded by continuously operating electronic tiltmeters: [link to hvo.wr.usgs.gov]

This graph shows the change in distance between two Global Positioning System (GPS) stations located on opposite ides of K&#299;lauea's caldera. A rapid increase in distance can be interpreted as inflation of the summit magma reservoir. The graph is refreshed once per day: [link to hvo.wr.usgs.gov]

[link to hvo.wr.usgs.gov] It's still puzzling that last month's buildup slowed without triggering a major change in the eruption, such as a large intrusion or fissure eruption. We may gain some insight on this by reviewing observations in the early 1900s, when early HVO staff made careful observations of summit lava lake level and earthquakes. Several times, rising lava levels culminated in rift-zone eruptive events, including the 1919 Mauna Iki eruption and 1922 and 1923 eruptions near Makaopuhi Crater. But several times between 1920 and 1922, rapidly rising lava levels peaked and then quietly returned to normal levels without eruption. If we view the rift zone eruptive events as a pressure release "valve" on the magmatic system, then the periods of rising level that do not result in rift eruptions imply that K&#299;lauea has other internal pressure-release mechanisms. We may have witnessed just such an internal pressure adjustment, but we're not out of the woods yet. Our network of GPS receivers recorded only a cessation of summit swelling but no appreciable contraction since late October. Despite the changes since October 26, there remains an elevated chance of a change in the ongoing eruption.

Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with active flows slowing in their seaward advance across the coastal plain. Yesterday, UH Hilo geologists reported that the flows were about 400-500 m (1,300-1,600 ft) from the coast and had only advanced about 150 m (500 ft) since Saturday. The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

Weak seismicity of the volcano was registered. According to video data, a moderate gas-steam activity and incandescence above the crater and lava flow were observed. Satellite data showed a thermal anomaly over the volcano.

getting close to 600 kilotons of tnt equivalent, or about 38 Hiroshima bombs, which released 63 terrajoules of energy

63x10 to the power of 12 joules

multiply that by 38, and you get somewhere near where katla is now in terms of energy release from the quake activity since 1999, 2.4 petajoules. Imagine that. in 13 and a half years, 38 Hiroshima bombs 'exploding' under there

also, about 33% of the total energy release has happened since July 2011. that's about 12 Hiroshima equivalents. just under one a month.

67% of energy release in the 12 and a half years between January 1999 to July 2011, 33% in the 16 months since. we are DEFINITELY in the run up to this eruption.

getting close to 600 kilotons of tnt equivalent, or about 38 Hiroshima bombs, which released 63 terrajoules of energy

63x10 to the power of 12 joules

multiply that by 38, and you get somewhere near where katla is now in terms of energy release from the quake activity since 1999, 2.4 petajoules. Imagine that. in 13 and a half years, 38 Hiroshima bombs 'exploding' under there

also, about 33% of the total energy release has happened since July 2011. that's about 12 Hiroshima equivalents. just under one a month.

67% of energy release in the 12 and a half years between January 1999 to July 2011, 33% in the 16 months since. we are DEFINITELY in the run up to this eruption.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26860799

Interesting and impressive estimates!Another edge also seems wake up, Etna now very similar to that after a long hiatus right now began firing [link to www.ct.ingv.it]

Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with active flows slowing in their seaward advance across the coastal plain. Yesterday, UH Hilo geologists reported that the flows were about 400-500 m (1,300-1,600 ft) from the coast and had only advanced about 150 m (500 ft) since Saturday. The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

November 11 11:20 h (November 11, 17:20 GMT)In the last 24 h, the monitoring system of Popocatepetl registered 97 low to moderate intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash [link to www.cenapred.unam.mx]

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27585279

[link to www.cenapred.unam.mx] November 14 11:35 h (November 14, 17:35 GMT)In the last 24 h, the monitoring system of Popocatepetl registered 141 low to moderate intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash, and one of them spewed some incandescent fragments near the crater

What is now happening with the weather everywhere - it's clearly very different from the long-term normal. In my opinion, while it is difficult to say how this will end, only one thing is clear: climate unbalanced and is now running at once all powerful feedback mechanisms that seek to bring the system into a kind of a new point of stability. The bad news is that we have no idea what it will - a new equilibrium that will reached, what exactly it will be different for different parts of the Earth from the fact that there is at present. And hardly have time to understand something in time until the end of the process...

Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with active flows slowing in their seaward advance across the coastal plain. Yesterday, UH Hilo geologists reported that the flows were about 400-500 m (1,300-1,600 ft) from the coast and had only advanced about 150 m (500 ft) since Saturday. The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with active flows slowing in their seaward advance across the coastal plain near the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park; webcams did not show an ocean entry plume and we have not received any first-hand reports that lava has entered the ocean. A new breakout started on the lower pali Thursday morning to the west of the previous flows and continued to advance across the coastal plain through this morning, potentially robbing the more seaward flows of lava supply and slowing their already slow progress.

November 11 11:20 h (November 11, 17:20 GMT)In the last 24 h, the monitoring system of Popocatepetl registered 97 low to moderate intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash [link to www.cenapred.unam.mx]

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27585279

[link to www.cenapred.unam.mx] November 14 11:35 h (November 14, 17:35 GMT)In the last 24 h, the monitoring system of Popocatepetl registered 141 low to moderate intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash, and one of them spewed some incandescent fragments near the crater

[link to volcans.blogs-de-voyage.fr] The Instituto Geofisico indicates that last February Reventador began a new phase of activity characterized by lava flows from the crater, steam plumes, and thermal anomalies detected in satellite images.

Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with active flows slowing in their seaward advance across the coastal plain near the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park; webcams did not show an ocean entry plume and we have not received any first-hand reports that lava has entered the ocean. A new breakout started on the lower pali Thursday morning to the west of the previous flows and continued to advance across the coastal plain through this morning, potentially robbing the more seaward flows of lava supply and slowing their already slow progress.