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Morning Fix: House Republican Recruitment Shines

Six months into a world where political Washington is totally controlled by Democrats, recruitment efforts for House Republicans are showing promise -- the first evidence, party strategists argue, that the hostile environment toward the GOP over the last few years is turning around.

In the last few days, former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) announced he would seek to regain his New Mexico seat in 2010, while state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), who lost in 2008 by just 2,312 votes to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D), said he would make a rematch next fall.

Pearce and Stivers join a handful of other quality GOP House candidates including Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby in Alabama's 2nd district, state Rep. Cory Gardner in Colorado's 4th, Assemblyman Van Tran in California's 47th and former Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio's 1st.

"Candidate recruitment is often a leading political indicator," said Ed Brookover, a longtime operative at the National Republican Congressional Committee and now a GOP media consultant. "Challenger candidates are often the first to feel a change in the political winds."

Recent polling suggests that while President Obama remains extremely popular personally, the popularity of his policies -- particularly on the economy -- is flagging somewhat. A new Quinnipiac University survey of Ohio voters showed that 49 percent approved of the job Obama is doing while 44 percent disapproved, a massive drop-off from an early May Q poll that showed Obama riding high at 62 percent approve/31 percent disapprove.

And, as the Post's Dan Balz noted, Obama's numbers in that poll faltered not among Republicans, which is to be expected, but rather among independents and even some Democrats -- a worrisome trend for the incumbent.

Another major factor in the Republican recruiting resurgence is the disappearance -- figuratively not literally -- of former president George W. Bush, a deeply unpopular figure among voters whose presence in the White House led a number of ambitious Republicans to take a pass on bid in the past.

"Republicans are out from under the cloud that was an unpopular President Bush," said Carl Forti, a former communications director at the NRCC and now a political consultant. "From state house to Congress, great candidates who have been itching to run are now jumping in with both feet."

The final piece of the recruiting puzzle is that Republican losses -- more than 50 seats over the last two elections -- means that there are lots and lots of Democratic targets to run against. Any number of Democratic House members sit in districts won by Sen. John McCain in 2008 and several -- though not all -- are likely to flip back to GOP control in 2010.

It's worth noting amid this good news for Republicans that recruiting successes are not all they are often cracked up to be. Take Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, for example, who, after being touted by national Republicans in his race to take on Rep. Carol Shea Porter has run into problems due to his involvement in a bar fight. Not good.

Still, the recent spate of potential candidates saying "yes" has left weary Republican strategists feeling a bit better about the state of play.

"This prospectively looks like the best political environment for Republicans since the 2004 election," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse.

Wednesday's Fix Picks: The first day back at work after even a short vacation is always a killer.

Ties Galore in OH-Senate: A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that the race for Sen. George Voinovich's (R) seat in 2010 is the purest of jump balls. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher takes 24 percent to Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's 21 percent while a whopping 51 percent didn't know enough about the candidates to offer an opinion. For Republicans, former Rep. Rob Portman held a solid lead over car dealer Tom Ganley. In general election matchups, Fischer took 37 percent to Portman's 33 percent; Brunner was at 35 percent to Portman's 34 percent. What does this poll tell us? That no one in the Buckeye State really knows any of the three candidates. Given that dynamic, fundraising and campaign quality will play an outsize role - factors that could well play to Portman's strengths.

Click It!: The Democratic National Committee is going on offense against the growing chorus of Republican criticism of the $787 billion economic stimulus plan passed by Congress earlier this year. The DNC will release a web ad this morning raking direct aim at House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) for his recent comments that the stimulus has done little to spur the economy in his home state. "Fact is, John Boehner supported the Bush economic policies of the past eight years that brought our economy to its knees," says the narrator in the web ad. "Now John Boehner is using baseless attacks to mislead the public about the success of the Recovery Act." The Boehner hit is part of an organized attempt by the DNC to push back against stimulus opponents by noting the jobs created in their districts and state as a result of the legislation. Democratic sources in the know suggest there is more to come

Grayson Collects Cash, Bunning Pledges Run: The soap opera that is the Kentucky Senate race continues apace with a series of twists and turns. First came word that Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) had raised $600,000 between April 1 and June 30 for his exploratory committee. Grayson had formed the exploratory committee in early May after Sen. Jim Bunning (R) told him to do so. Everyone -- except Bunning -- believed the senator was, in effect, passing the torch to Grayson. Or not. Bunning told local reporters Tuesday that he is planning to run for a third term in 2010 even while acknowledging that he will not equal Grayson's second quarter haul. Bunning raised a paltry $263,000 in the first three months of the year; reports of fundraising over the last three months are due at the Federal Election Commission by July 15.

Whitman Hires Pompeii: Former eBay president Meg Whitman (R) continues to scoop up well-regarded operatives for her 2010 California gubernatorial bid with Sarah Pompeii, currently press secretary for Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.), the latest to join the team. Pompeii, who served as deputy press secretary for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign before joining Johanns's campaign, will serve as press secretary for Whitman. Pompeii is returning home -- she is a native of Orange County -- to help Whitman in her primary fight against former Rep. Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.

Bolten to Princeton: Joshua Bolten, who spent the last three years of George W. Bush's presidency as chief of staff, has taken on a teaching gig at Princeton University. Bolten, who graduated from the school in 1976, will be a visiting professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs beginning this fall. "I'm excited to follow my government career in a vibrant academic environment that's on the cutting edge of contemporary public policy thought," said Bolten of the move.

Say What?: "He was an immensely gifted man and I think he basically meant well." -- Former president Bill Clinton on the late Michael Jackson.

Google's timing really couldn't be better. I don't know anyone who likes Vista and Windows 7 is little more than a Vista service pack, for which MS expects people to pony up full price. Yeah it uses less memory, in fact it will run on an XP machine, but that's not relevant now that new machines come with 2-4 GB of RAM.

Pity Vista wouldn't work on XP machines ... back when it was supposed to be the successor to XP.

A parallel: Security was built into the very earliest versions of Linux. In Windows security is a retrofit and a hasty one. While Window is now relatively secure, and comparable to Linux, we all know that the improvements came only after a succession of spectacular vulnerabilties with egg on Microsoft's face every time. I've seen the line of code that let in the SQL Slammer, and the line that enabled Melissa, and both were brain-dead work.

I still would never in a million years put a Windows box on my broadband connection, I run a Mandrive box as a gateway.

Fast-forward: internet connectivity is also a retrofit in Windows. In the Chrome OS the connectivity is built in from the start. The fact that MS has to sell an old version of Windows for netbooks says that they're too wedded to a bulky and memory/processor-intensive implementation.

And Microsoft is too rigidified now to respond agilely to new challenges. Imagine a cross between the Kremlin and a Bible Camp and you start to get the idea.

So I can see how the firings are unethical, but how are they illegal? I thought the President can hire and fire these guys on a whim. Is it a crime if they can show that the firings were politically motivated?

Posted by: DDAWD

==

If prosecutors were ordered to ignore Republican crimes and to invent Democratic ones, I'd say they have some charges ready for the docket

The Marxist agenda of the Obama administration and of the Democrap Socialist Party will be the best campaign issue and recruiting tool that the GOP will have in the 2010 elections. With their Robin Hood form of governing and the re-distribution of all wealth policies that will have resulted in a disaster for the American people with a deficit 10 times higher than what GWB had; unemployment numbers in the 1929 Depression years range, and with inflation of the dollar--caused by their printing money to try to pay for all their facist and Communist-like "from each according to his abilities, to each according to his need" agenda--the American people will have had enough of an incompetent Obama and a political party trying to bring a USSR-like "workers paradise" to America. When even James Carville say's (as he did) that the GOP could very well take back congress in the 2010 elections, then the GOP is looking to a great election comming up.

"The House Judiciary Committee deposed former Bush adviser Karl Rove yesterday, as part of the long-running U.S. attorney scandal probe. According to Chairman John Conyers (D-MI), Rove’s deposition “began at 10 a.m. and ended around 6:30 p.m, with several breaks,” although he refused to comment on what Rove said."

So I can see how the firings are unethical, but how are they illegal? I thought the President can hire and fire these guys on a whim. Is it a crime if they can show that the firings were politically motivated?

"The House Judiciary Committee deposed former Bush adviser Karl Rove yesterday, as part of the long-running U.S. attorney scandal probe. According to Chairman John Conyers (D-MI), Rove’s deposition “began at 10 a.m. and ended around 6:30 p.m, with several breaks,” although he refused to comment on what Rove said."

Finally the chickens come home to roost -- and rove gets grilled. Maybe bush's 'brain' will end up in the slammer after all.

GETTING really senile? He's been that way for year is my guess. Defintely latter stage. But here's the numbers -- only the hardcore 20% of tinfoil crackpots will vote for Dolly Ditzy.

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's resignation -- announced last Friday -- fueled speculation that she may be setting up a run for president in 2012. A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Monday night finds a core of 19% of U.S. voters who say they are "very likely" to vote for her should she run"

BSIMON I agree with you nominating Sarah Palin would be sucide for the Republicans, but I not worried about, she's not going to run and even if she did, she wouldn't get far. JakeDs passion for Sarah is not rational, I suspect it goes deeper than politics and he is smitten with her good looks and charm.

jaked must really be getting senile. He keeps referring to something called Palin-Romney. What could that possibly be? The only thing it couldn't be is the GOP ticket in 2012, since there is zero point zero chance Mitt Romney would play second fiddle to Sarah Palin.

jaked might as well talk about the Jesus Crist-Moses ticket, since that's equally likely.

jaked must really be getting senile. He keeps referring to something called Palin-Romney. What could that possibly be? The only thing it couldn't be is the GOP ticket in 2012, since there is zero point zero chance Mitt Romney would play second fiddle to Sarah Palin.

jaked might as well talk about the Jesus Crist-Moses ticket, since that's equally likely.

The discredited and disgraced Republican Ministry of Propaganda, which still remains in existence despite efforts of the American voting public to kill it, tries to revive terminally ill Republican Party by preparing and issuing press release to Cillizza for publication saying How House Republican Recruitment Shines.

A head shot pic of Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), mouth open to catch flies, accompanies the written press release with Pete giving the Double Dick Nixon peace sign which Pete mistakenly think means victory, a concept for the Dixiecrats that exists only in their collective small-minded minds.

It seems Letterman and Olbermann are getting more and more desperaste as their audiences shrink to zero.

Dave, who is about the ugliest host on TV is now the all Palin all the time show, making jokes at her expense as a regular feature. As if his ratings could go asny lower. what a loser.

and Krazy Keith is so upset that Glenn Beck has more viewers in a snigle show than Keith gets all month is back to the usual government intervention ranting.

"On the June 30 editon of Beck's show, former CIA analyst Michael Scheuer said: "the only chance we have as a country right now is for Osama bin Laden to detonate a major weapon in the United States." Apparently Scheuer thinks that's what it would take to shock the country and its leaders back to their senses. Olbermann was infuriated that Beck didn't "scream at him" or otherwise jump down Scheuer's throat, choosing instead to nod gravely while suggesting that would be the last thing OBL would do.
"

WHAT DOES MISSOURI GOP REP. JIM GUEST KNOW THAT HIS COLLEAGUES REFUSE TO EVEN CONSIDER?

• Answer: That microwave radiation "directed energy weapons" developed and proliferated by various federal agencies are being used to silently inflict TORTURE, injury, and physical and mental impairment upon unjustly "targeted" American citizens and their families.

I think it is funny that the [Red] Chinese decided not to buy the Hummer for environmental reasons.

Yep, the economy is going to be really bad for a long time and no political party can change that.

There is not going to be a new bubble to save us from the last one that burst. This generation of investors is done with bubbles, since they are, in fact, all Ponzi schemes. The green shoots have no roots.

How to spin high unemployment for political gain, the political theater of the next decade...

This apparent recoil against big government policies has not gone unnoticed by Americans. Gallup reported earlier this week that 39 percent of Americans say their views on political issues have grown more conservative, while only 18 say they have grown more liberal. Moderates agreed by a 33 to 18 percent margin.

Russia's nondemocratic rulers over the years have shown an uncanny knack for detecting weakness in their foes. Russia's Vladimir Putin is continuing the tradition. President Obama no doubt believes he was dealing with honest brokers when he agreed with Russia's leaders to cut U.S. and Russian nuclear warheads to about 1,600 each. For the U.S., that's a cut of about a third. But please read the fine print. This is a "preliminary" agreement.

The Fix writes
"Pearce and Stivers join a handful of other quality GOP House candidates including..."

The Fix is remiss in not mentioning why these candidates are 'quality' candidates. By which metric? Do they have local name recognition? Are they party insiders or party outsiders? If the latter, are they ideologically 'pure' or are they more pragmatic? Is quality measured by fundraising ability, appeal to the party machine, appeal to swing voters, or something completely different?

Palin would probably win Iowa is she ran, but that would be it for her. I just do not see this economy getting close to recovery for the nest 3 to 5 years. This is not a normal recession. The paridgm has shifted, the old saying about the jobs being a lagging indicator do not apply. We will not see a recovery until the unemployment numbers bottom out. Where that will be I don't know. It would probably around 19-23% if the dems are suicadal enough to pass cap&tax and Public Healthcare.

"I must disagree with him about the concept that "The Republican Party likes to nominate the next guy in line." "

It's an interesting phenomenon, but I think that its predictive value is overrated. I do think that Mitt Romney will be the next nominee, but for other reasons than simply that he was runner up to McCain.

Although the phenomenon is true. Starting with Reagan who was runner up in 1976, every Republican nominee has been the runner up in the previous primary with the exception of Bush in 2000.

I must disagree with him about the concept that "The Republican Party likes to nominate the next guy in line." Bob Dole was a good party man and he 'fell on the sword' for his party in a year when the GOP candidate was sure to lose. He was nice about it, too, and turned it into a bit of a Victory Lap.
I feel the same thing happened with McCain this last year. The GOP did not stand a chance: GWB was loathed, his party was loathed, and their candidate was doomed. I feel like McCain was the only one who didn't recognise that the party bosses 'let him have it' in 2008 rather than risk soiling any candidates with a political future. Even if Mccain were 20 years younger no one would consider him in 2012 -- we no longer give anyone a second bite at the apple.

"Ddawd, you are right and Simon is wrong about "plain spoken". But he may not be wrong that the social conservative base thinks she is plain spoken, and he may be correct that she would win an R Primary, if it were held tomorrow."

Yeah, she is definitely not plain spoken. No politician is, but at least most politicians are able to communicate coherently. It seems like she is only able to do that when calling Obama a terrorist or referring to Democratic voting areas as not part of America. or assailing the mainstream media which has been so good to her.

Although, tomorrow might be the best chance she has to win the nomination. She is definitely no dark horse like Obama was and if she has to go through real debates (as opposed to the one with Biden where his major strategy was to just let her hang herself) I don't think she has the stomach to sustain a prolonged two year campaign. She seems to be far too thin skinned to undergo that kind of scrutiny which would only intensify given the longer campaign time as well as the fact that she is running for the top job. One of the arguments the McCain campaign made in its disjointed effort to shield Palin was to say that her lack of credentials don't matter since she isn't running for President. That would no longer be true.

The fate of the DvR balance lies with public perception about the economy, as it almost always has.

Voters tend to think their lifestyle will be better, including safer, in the hands of one versus another. The parties' role is to encourage this tendency to believe in themselves.

This is why the parties are so much alike, in particular with regard to crony capitalism. Government Motors is a shining example, this company was as much killed by Dingell as it was rescued by him. I'll just mention the military industrial complex and the war on drugs/war in Afghanistan relationship in this context.

We want to believe, some think people need to believe. Sure wish there were a political party that did not have all four hooves in the public trough.

Ddawd, you are right and Simon is wrong about "plain spoken". But he may not be wrong that the social conservative base thinks she is plain spoken, and he may be correct that she would win an R Primary, if it were held tomorrow.

"CC links to Roger Simon on Palin [#2]. If Simon is correct, so is ChrisFox8. "

I literally started laughing at that column when he referred to Palin's resignation speech as "plain-spoken". It's mind boggling how the pundits continue to laud her. It's just so backward from how I see things and I really doubt I'm so completely, 100% wrong in my perception of the person. I mean, Yeah, I could be 25% or 50% wrong, but 100%?

Of course these people have been wrong about Palin at every turn, so I'm more inclined to go with my own thoughts than her army of boosters'.

Regardless of the fur that flies over the Republicans' favorite wedge issues, Americans have (and presumambly will) vote with their pocketbooks. I know that, you know that, these Republican candidates know that.

The handful of Repubican challengers stepping forward (as enumerated here by CC) are simply doing math based on their presumption that the stimulative economic programs of President Obama will fail to produce measurable, practical results before Novemeber 2010.

If the economy does not show marked improvements by next summer, then Republicans will have the opportunity to gain House seats.

If the national economy doesn't rebound by next summer, it most likely will by 2012. At that point, this vanguard GOP class of 2010 will assume the credit (ie "we came here & reigned in the President's spending - we caused the recovery.")

So, the way I slice it - these candidates returning from the woods, they the aren't so much indicative of changing poltical winds. But, rather, more like blackjack card counters, betting a winning hand will be turned up next year.

CC links to Roger Simon on Palin [#2]. If Simon is correct, so is ChrisFox8.

Yesterday CC posted about the Senate choices the Rs are recruiting, and several of them were clearly moderate and credible, including Ayotte. Bsimon1 and I speculated that maybe this signaled an earlier resurrection of the Rs than has been generally predicted, vindicating bhoomes.

ChrisFox8 suggested he saw no evidence that the Rs were going for the big tent again, but were instead still moving in the other direction. Simon seems to agree, but his caveat is that he thinks the Rs are stripped to a true believing social conservative core at just this moment.

Sure am looking forward to Ohio's congressional candidates running on Obamas coatails. Its going to be an absolute bloodbath for dems, for whaterver the republicans flaws and weaknesses, the dems have proven totally incapable of governing from the center and have alienated the independents who gave Obama and the dems their victories. As Palin would say "I told you so".

Boehner was begging to be parodied by the Ds after lauding the stimulus to his constituents while disparaging it to a national audience. Pols do sometimes forget that everything they say to anyone is on the public record and probably on Youtube.

But Boehner is no ordinary pol; he is a national leader who completely stepped on his own feet and then fell flat on his face. Yes, Reid has done this too. I am not making a partisan point, just expressing my amusement that a leader got caught talking out of both sides of his mouth.

Even if Republicans are having recruiting success (and I don't think recruiting people who lost in the previous election is a sign of success), the GOP still lacks leadership and a coherent message. They may pick up some seats, depending on the mood of the electorate, but generally Republican leaders are viewed less positively than Obama...