Could Dem Convention Dump Both Hillary and Bernie?

Tuesday’s the day. Hillary Clinton will undoubtedly gain the handful of delegates she needs to get the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. But only with the help of Superdelegates. According to the New York Times count, Hillary currently only has 1,769 pledged delegates.

On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where 676 pledged (elected) delegates will be at stake in those five states.

Sabato calls for Hillary to win New Jersey by 10 points, New Mexico by 5 points, California by 2 points, and South Dakota by 1 point, while Bernie would win Montana by 17 points. Winning at that rate, Hillary should pick up 78 in Jersey, 23 in New Mexico, 278 in California, and 13 in South Dakota—and let’s say she gets 34 of Puerto Rico’s on Monday (she did)—for a total of 426. That still leaves her 188 delegates short of the nomination.

However, she already has 2331 total delegates, if you count Superdelegates—just 52 short of the promised land. Bernie’s only hope would be to win over the Superdelegates. His hope is that Superdelegates will acknowledge what a horrible campaigner Hillary is, and the fact that polls show Bernie doing better against Trump. However, Bernie is three million popular votes behind, has not even been a Democrat for very long, and he seems to like alienating Superdelegates, such as by endorsing the primary opponent of the chairperson of the Democratic Party.

Bernie Sanders should end his campaign and begin convincing supporters to line up behind Hillary Clinton as the presumptive Democratic nominee, Clinton said in an interview that aired Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Clinton said that in 2008, some supporters urged her to battle Barack Obama to the convention but noted that she decided to cede to Obama rather than fight because they shared similar policy goals and values. When this year’s primary season largely ends Tuesday, she said, “I expect Senator Sanders to do the same.”

That would enable the party, she added, “to go to the convention in a unified way.”

Bernie Sanders urged news organizations on Saturday to hold off on declaring a victor in the Democratic presidential race following Tuesday’s primaries and vowed to soldier on to the party’s convention in July. . .

The Vermont senator insisted that the delegate count is fluid. And he expressed confidence that he could persuade some “super delegates”— the party leaders who are not locked into voting for a particular candidate — to peel away from Clinton in the “six long weeks” before Democrats gather in Philadelphia. . .

Sanders then added, with emphasis, that the “Democratic National Convention will be a contested convention.”

The Democratic convention is not until July 25th, in Philadelphia. Yes, there’s some time for wooing Superdelegates, but is it realistic that Bernie could talk almost all of them over to his side? Really?

Both politicians have been criss-crossing the largest state in the union ahead of Tuesday’s primary, and while it is Clinton who is all but certain to prevail in their national battle, Sanders still appears to draw larger and more energized crowds.

The stark difference — Clinton speaking to hundreds in a high school gymnasium in Oxnard, Sanders inspiring thousands at the Los Angeles Coliseum — highlights the challenges of a candidate who turns towards her head-to-head battle with Donald Trump with only tepid support from many Democrats.

“I would say there’s some Hillary fatigue out there,” Jeremy Jackson, a 39-year-old teacher in Oxnard, told AFP, reflecting on the more than three decades in which Clinton has been in America’s public eye.

So after all these months of talking about having a contested GOP convention next month in Cleveland, now it is looking more and more as if the contested convention will be on the Democratic side. And while it is unlikely that Bernie could be the nominee, if he holds his delegates in line, it’s increasingly possible that a long, drawn out, deadlocked convention could end up nominating someone with no committed delegates at all—like Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.

Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.

11 COMMENTS

Wow, what a prejudiced article. Hillary is not going to take all the states who vote on Tues, June 7th. Bernie Sanders is leading in all the polls except Puerto Rico. She may take New Jersey since she has spent so much time there but we’ll see… Bernie Sanders is the best candidate we have in either party, even better than Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren. If the DNC puts them in, in place of Bernie Sanders you will see the Dem. vote go way down & Trump will win. He will also win if Hillary is the nominee as shown by poll after poll! People just won’t vote. We do not want the same old, same old people who are establishment. Elizabeth Warren may get her chance in the 2020 election & Biden has not even campaigned one time. Either Hillary or Bernie should get the nomination because they have worked hard for it & Bernie Sanders doesn’t have an indictment hanging over his head! I think your article was unfair to Bernie Sanders & was leaning backwards to support Hillary even though the polls tell you differently.

The biggest mistake that the media did was declare that Clinton is the presumed nominee. That means that all her supporters are going to stay home and allow Sanders to commit the most powerful upset in the history of politics. Add a win in D.C and he will give the superdelegates a choice. Either vote for the one that has the most bound delegates or watch Trump move into the White House.

Danna: You must be new here. We work to find opposing views to share–for YOUR discussion. The next (newer) page says Bernie could still win.

Hermione: OK, so answer this. You say to “vote for the one with the most bound delegates.” Using the Sabato projections, Bernie would still be hundreds of delegates, and millions of popular votes behind. If those projections pan out, are you prepared to vote for, and support Hillary–if she’s “the one with the most bound delegates”? Also–“add a win in DC.” Seriously?

Well, this article was dumb. Sanders is laying down his sword Tuesday. He’ll get a parade and a paryy hat at the convention and the candidate endorsed by Warren and Obama will do just fine with the group of his supporters who actually want to vote in a Presidential election.