Prediction Markets Summit in San Francisco 12/2

The meeting has been rescheduled for December 2 in order to accomodate more participants.

Collabria, which hosts
discussions on new technologies for collaboration and knowledge
management, will be hosting a discussion on
Prediction Markets in San Francisco on October 21stDecember 2. They have a
presence in several
other cities, and plan to host similar discussions in other
locations. Their modus operandi is to get a small group (~25
people) together, have a few presentations (sans PowerPoint), and
discuss the implications of the ideas.

The San Francisco discussion
features Bernardo Huberman, Ely Dahan, Eric Zitzewitz and me. Bernardo‘s
recent papers (with Tad Hogg) are about techniques to
correct for some
inefficiencies they’ve identified in small, internal corporate
prediction markets. Ely teaches
marketing at UCLA, and uses Prediction Markets as a replacement for
focus groups to get consumers to
predict what
product feature mix will be most desirable. Eric has written
about how Prediction Markets can
contribute to policy discussions, and demonstrating that the
prices in well-structured markets
correspond to probabilities.

I expect to give an
introduction to the idea of Prediction Markets (because I’m speaking
first), talk about how they can be valuable in policy setting and
business planning, and give an update on Zocalo’s status.