As of this moment, the Academy Awards are just -116days, -15hours, -43minutes, and 0-25seconds away—which means time is running out before Oscar nominations are announced to watch all the top movies, compare all the major performances, and analyze all the key races. It’s a lot to take in, but fortunately the Little Gold Men awards team here at V.F. has been on the case since the fall festivals. (Eh, who are we kidding—this is a year-round obsession for us!) And here, for the first time ever, we’ve distilled all our hard-earned knowledge into one easily digestible list of 20 must-see movies, listed in order of release date, so you can see at a glance which films, directors, and actors are the likeliest bets for which awards. Scroll on for a crash course in this year’s ever evolving (and inevitably idiosyncratic) Oscar race, and don’t forget to check back for updates to the Little Gold Men team’s updated predictions for individual nominees and winners.

Best SupportingActress

BestPicture

1

Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

2

1917

3

Parasite

4

The Irishman

5

Joker

6

Jojo Rabbit

7

Marriage Story

8

Little Women

9

Ford v Ferrari

The Farewell

The film that will make you believe in family gatherings again

Lulu Wang spun magic out of heartbreak in her sophomore feature. The film recounts the impossibly true story of her family’s decision to hide her grandmother’s terminal cancer diagnosis from her, a Chinese custom that’s difficult to understand for the lead character Billi (Awkwafina), an American of Chinese descent. Wang’s script, based on the story she first shared on a 2016 episode of This American Life, and directing style are deft and stylish, while Awkwafina—fresh off high-profile comedies Crazy Rich Asians and Ocean’s 8—handily proves she can handle drama. As the grandmother left in the dark, Chinese television veteran Shuzhen Zhao is a sneaky standout as well.
—Yohana Desta

Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

The brazen remix of Hollywood’s most infamous serial-murder saga

Hollywood loves to gaze into a mirror, especially if the reflection is more flattering than reality. Quentin Tarantino’s fairy tale about heroes and has-beens in 1969 Los Angeles struck a nerve with people who work in the film business, so it’s already on the short list for many guild and Academy voters. Leonardo DiCaprio’s fading action star and Brad Pitt’s stoic stuntman are at the heart of the film, while Margot Robbie enchanted with her day-in-the-life performance as actor Sharon Tate, who in real life was murdered by followers of Charles Manson; those menacing figures stalk the shadows of this otherwise sunny fictional story.
—Anthony Breznican

Hustlers

The performance that will make you wonder if J.Lo is immortal

Lorene Scafaria’s rousing smash hit is a lot of things at once: a crime story, an exploration (and indictment) of the late-aughts American economy, a fabulously fun movie about strippers. Hustlers is rollicking entertainment that still packs an emotional punch, thanks to Scafaria’s deft direction—she stages riots of activity without making things messy—and a sterling, enviably cool cast. Constance Wu leads the pack, proving that Crazy Rich Asians was no fluke, while Jennifer Lopez, maybe in the performance of her career, slinks away with the movie as an alluring-menacing mentor figure who can work a pole, and an unsuspecting mark, like no other.
—Richard Lawson

Judy

The performance that reminds us why we love two different icons

Hollywood has a soft spot for actors playing real-life people (see Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, et cetera), so Renée Zellweger’s fearless portrayal of Judy Garland should land the Academy Award winner (Cold Mountain) squarely in Oscar conversations. Directed by Rupert Goold and based on the Tony-nominated play End of the Rainbow, Judy tracks the Wizard of Oz legend through a series of sold-out London concerts in 1969, just months before her sudden death. Haunted by substance abuse, loneliness, and the demons of her Hollywood studio days, Zellweger’s Judy struggles to find her legendary voice for adoring audiences.
—Julie Miller

Dolemite Is My Name

The screenplay that gives rap’s forefather his due

A comeback story about a comeback story. Eddie Murphy stars in Craig Brewer’s humorous, humble take on the life of enterprising black entertainer and blaxploitation legend Rudy Ray Moore, charting his growth from best-selling street comic to hero of the 1970s Dolemite movies. The movie largely rests on Murphy’s loose but tough performance—and on the pure joy of seeing the shabby genius of the world of Dolemite come back to life. But it gets an extra boost from Wesley Snipes, Craig Robinson, Tituss Burgess, Mike Epps, and especially newcomer Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who amps up the hijinks with a healthy dose of soul.
—K. Austin Collins

Joker

The villainous origin story that could win the Joker his second Oscar

Joaquin Phoenix plays Arthur Fleck, a struggling clown and delusional stand-up comedian who is pushed to the margins of society and becomes a killer. Phoenix is the big draw for the origin story, cowritten by Phillips and Scott Silver, about Batman’s most famous adversary, teetering between tremulous vulnerability and violent creepiness. While the bloody, amoral film might trouble the Academy’s more genteel circles, Phoenix—a three-time best-actor nominee—is a major player for his dark, sinewy transformation. Robert De Niro portrays a toothy late-night host in homage to his film The King of Comedy, one of Joker’s main inspirations. And one last big draw? More than $700 million worldwide, and counting.
—Yohana Desta

Pain and Glory

The actor-director collaboration 30 years in the making

An aging, sickly director not unlike Pedro Almodóvar, and played by Antonio Banderas, is at the center of this film, which spins a graceful, rueful tale of memory and reconciliation. It’s in large part a memory piece: Salvador Mallo (Banderas) is being feted for one of his early-career films, which dredges up old wounds with friends, including the star of the film, from whom Mallo has been estranged ever since; memories of Mallo’s Catholic, impoverished childhood, and of his sexual awakening; and a painful but rich encounter with an old love.
—K. Austin Collins

Parasite

The South Korean film that thinks like a satire and plays like a thriller

The premise seems simple enough: A poor family successfully scams a rich family. But in the hands of Bong Joon-ho, who cowrote with Okja collaborator Jin Won Han, the conceit is raised to its most unpredictable form—a thriller about class struggle and upstairs-downstairs relationships, that is also violent, funny, and endlessly surprising. Parasite was a hit out of Cannes, winning the Palme d’Or (a first for a South Korean film) and drawing huge audiences in its home country; when it opened in the United States in October, it set specialty box office records. Bong has long been hailed as a thrilling auteur, but Parasite has raised his profile higher than ever.
—Yohana Desta

Jojo Rabbit

The crowd-pleaser that wants to fight Nazis with humor

The “anti-hate satire” in which director Taika Waititi also plays a comic, imaginary-friend version of Hitler, won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival in September, a historically excellent boost to any best-picture hopeful. The screenplay, adapted from a novel by Christine Leunens, ought to earn attention, as should Scarlett Johansson—a best-actress contender for Marriage Story—who stands out in a supporting role as a woman resisting the Nazis even as her son becomes fascinated by them.
—Katey Rich

The Irishman

The gangster movie version of Unforgiven, from the master himself

The credits alone on this Martin Scorsese crime feature are enough to pique awards voters’ interest. The sprawling Netflix epic, rumored to cost over $150 million, reunites Scorsese with muses Robert De Niro and Joe Pesci, and pairs Scorsese with Al Pacino for the first time in either titan’s history. Based on Charles Brandt’s 2004 book, I Heard You Paint Houses, The Irishman relied on controversial anti-aging technology to portray the decades-long tale of Frank Sheeran (De Niro), a truck driver turned hit man whose involvement with crime boss Russell Bufalino (Pesci) leads him to labor union leader Jimmy Hoffa (Pacino).
—Julie Miller

Marriage Story

The performances that wring every unruly emotion out of an “amicable” divorce

No gloopy marital melodrama, Noah Baumbach’s piercingly realized chronicling of a marriage’s sad, mundanely absurd dissolution is a master class in appealingly bittersweet cinema. Adam Driver and a perhaps-never-better Scarlett Johansson tear into Baumbach’s detailed, specific writing with controlled fury. It’s as much a joy to watch them sing or dance as it is to watch them have a wall-shaking argument. They’re joined by a wonderfully idiosyncratic supporting cast, including Ray Liotta, Julie Hagerty, Alan Alda, and Laura Dern. Everyone makes a strong impression, but this really is Driver and Johansson’s show.
—Richard Lawson

Ford v Ferrari

The dad movie to end all dad movies

Matt Damon and Christian Bale anchor James Mangold’s flashy, entertaining race car story, in which Ford Motor Company (led by an insecure Henry Ford II, played by Tracy Letts) tries to sex up its postwar appeal with a little international action: namely, a neck-and-neck fight to steal the crown from Ferrari at 1966’s 24 Hours of Le Mans. It’s a true story about a man versus the system—the man being Ken Miles (Bale), a pioneering engineer and a bit of a hothead behind the steering wheel, and the system being Ford and all the corporate chicanery it represents. The movie ends with a big race, as, of course, it must, but what’s at stake is far more than just Ford’s public image. Jon Bernthal and Josh Lucas star as good cop and bad cop, respectively, at Ford; Caitriona Balfe costars as Miles’s wife, Mollie.
—K. Austin Collins

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The screenplay that smothers the Trump era in a cozy sweater

Less than a year after her film Can You Ever Forgive Me? scored three Oscar nominations, Marielle Heller returns with this funny-sad look at, if not exactly the life, certainly the spirit of Fred Rogers. Based on a true story, Beautiful Day follows a cynical journalist, played by Matthew Rhys, as he softens in the warm, wise glow of Mister Rogers. That American icon is played by another American icon, Tom Hanks, who doesn’t so much impersonate Rogers as he does embody the quiet, graceful decency of the man. It’s feel-good done right, with Hanks providing much of the gentle, soothing goodwill.
—Richard Lawson

The Two Popes

The buddy comedy you never knew you needed

A premise that sounds stodgy at first glance—Pope Benedict (Hopkins) and Pope Francis (Pryce) in a series of conversations in and around the Vatican—blossoms into a thoughtful, brilliantly acted, and occasionally very funny two-hander, with a deft script from The Theory of Everything Oscar nominee Anthony McCarten. Meirelles, a best-director nominee for City of God, brings style but a crucial restraint to flashbacks about Francis during the Argentine military coup in the 1970s, but it’s the scenes between the two popes that make the movie such a surprise crowd-pleaser.
—Katey Rich

Richard Jewell

It’s a name that has faded from memory over the past two decades, but in 1996, Jewell was the ultimate “person of interest.” Paul Walter Hauser, of I, Tonya, plays the security guard who saved countless lives when he discovered a backpack of pipe bombs in a crowded park during the Summer Olympics in Atlanta, then whose own life was demolished when investigators and the media focused on him as a suspect. Clint Eastwood’s drama explores the lasting damage left by the initial accusations, which lingered after he was cleared of wrongdoing and hailed as a hero. The screenplay by Billy Ray (Captain Phillips) is based on the 1997 Vanity Fair article “The Ballad of Richard Jewell,” by Marie Brenner.
—Anthony Breznican

Bombshell

The transformation that could be Charlize’s next Monster

Based on the sexual harassment allegations that brought down late former Fox News CEO Roger Ailes, Bombshell has Nicole Kidman as Gretchen Carlson, John Lithgow as Ailes, Margot Robbie as a fictionalized version of multiple Fox employees…but all anyone seems able to talk about is Charlize Theron, who bears an uncanny resemblance to Megyn Kelly with the help of prosthetics from Darkest Hour whiz Kazuhiro Tsuji. Director Jay Roach, whose Trumbo earned a best-actor nomination for Bryan Cranston, worked from a screenplay by Charles Randolph, who won an Oscar for cowriting The Big Short.
—Katey Rich

1917

The technically dazzling World War I drama that unspools in one take

This harrowing battlefield story plays out in real time in what will look like one continuous shot as two British World War I soldiers (George MacKay of Captain Fantastic and Dean-Charles Chapman from Game of Thrones) race across enemy territory to hand-deliver intelligence that will save 1,600 fellow soldiers from marching into certain death. Voters will be judging the brutal tale on its elegance, as American Beauty director Sam Mendes and cinematographer Roger Deakins (who won last year for Blade Runner 2049) seamlessly track the young heroes through woodlands, over scarred hills, and into ravaged towns as they hurry to save lives in this landscape of loss.
—Anthony Breznican

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Just Mercy

The performances that allow you to believe in humanity again

Almost 15 years after winning a best actor Oscar for Ray, Jamie Foxx takes on one of his most emotional roles since. Foxx portrays an Alabama man falsely accused of murder and awaiting the death penalty when his case is taken up by a young civil rights attorney (Michael B. Jordan). The heartfelt drama is also a major calling card for up-and-coming director Destin Daniel Cretton, whose next project will be the Marvel movie Shang-Chi.
—Katey Rich

Little Women

The costume drama and literary adaptation to beat

Fresh off five Oscar nominations for Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig returns to theaters this Christmas with her most ambitious picture to date: an adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s coming-of-age classic Little Women. The sumptuous period drama seems specially engineered for maximum awards impact, with a cast including Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep, Laura Dern, and Chris Cooper; a script cowritten by Gerwig and fellow Oscar nominee Sarah Polley (Away From Her); and costumes and music by respective Oscar winners Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina) and Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Shape of Water).
—Julie Miller

Clemency

The Alfre Woodard performance that proves her legendary status

A harrowing look at the death penalty, Clemency stars Alfre Woodard in an indelible, haunting performance. Woodard plays a death row warden named Bernadine, who begins to question the morality of lethal injections after an execution gone wrong. Director Chinonye Chukwu met with death row wardens as well as inmates to research the film, and as experienced warden Bernadine Williams, Woodard mines new emotional depths during moments both loud and quiet. Woodard’s face, famous from a decades-long career that has spanned everything from her Oscar-nominated turn in 1983’s Cross Creek to True Blood, is a special effect of its own—a masterpiece of subtle expressions that make the film, and its sobering message, linger.
—Laura Bradley