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RSA Chase 2018

Outside of the Gold Cup and Champion Chase which have obvious claims, the RSA is probably the race i'm most looking forward to come March and with the news that Death Duty is due out next Tuesday for his chase debut, now looks a good time to start this.

Rather than go through the betting, i'll start off with the runners from what will end up being one the best races of last season at Punchestown in the Champion Novice Hurdle over 2m4 and could end up with 3 of the best novice chasers this season:

Bacardys - 16/1
It took me until that race to appreciate this horse if i'm honest. His run style throughout his races and the form of horses around him meant I wrote him off far too quickly. The bumper form of 15/16 wasn't holding up that strong, neither imo did the Deloitte look a particularly strong renewal so when he lined up at Cheltenham (being so keen on Neon Wolf's chances) he was easily overlooked particularly as his price was 4/1 2nd fav. After winning his second grade 1 though at Punchestown it was clear I was missing something. A horse who does all his best work at the very end of the race, it was a common sight to see him pushed along mid race at the back only to find plenty at the end of his races. I'm sure he'll start off over 2m4 but 3 miles looks right up his street. Kev mentioned the 4 miler and although I think Patrick Mullins would snap his Father's hands off to ride him in that race, Mullins looks light in the RSA and Bacardys could have a touch more class than that. 16/1 in this race, he's still available at 12/1 in the any place market and that appeals most. He was able to run in all 3 festivals in his bumper season which another promising sign going forward.

Finian's Oscar - 16/1
Before Bacardys collared him late on, a win in that race looked a formality when Robbie Power kicked on from the field. Arguably the most exciting novice chaser approaching the season, he could in all likelihood line up over any trip at the festival but Tizzard has come out and said the JLT looks to be the ideal trip for the horse so for now i'm happy to look elsewhere but Joe Tizzard is certain he is a Gold Cup horse going forward so it wouldn't be out of the question for him to race here even if shorter trips look far ore likely.

Death Duty - 20/1
I had fully expected to be starting the season with Death Duty as a single figure favourite for this race having won or gone close in the Albert Bartlett. So much so I had 3pts on him in February in anticipation. Things didn't go to plan at Cheltenham but he got back on track at Punchestown with a creditable run in 3rd. Elliott has recently come out and said he never looked right at Cheltenham and really shouldn't have run him with him looking worse and worse every day. You have to have some doubts over both 3 miles and good ground but Elliott is sure that the trip wasn't the issue and has maintained that 3 miles will suit. Soft ground should help him but again, Elliott has said he isn't ground dependant. I'm delighted to see him entered over 2miles7 next week. It looks a nice introduction for the horse and the fact they are testing out the 3 mile trip (almost) straight away means they can find out one of those question marks early on. I still have very high hopes for him this season and expect him to get right back on track.

Of the current fav:

Yanworth - 12/1
There seems to be little 'chat' about him so far. I have my doubts over him over fences myself. His jumping over hurdles left plenty to be desired. Perhaps fences will be the making of his jumping but it's a big question mark. Add in the fact that he did stay that extra season over hurdles means at 12/1, I can easily look past him right now. Despite running in the Champion Hurdle last season, 3 miles looked ideal for him at Aintree so I would expect this trip to suit him most. I also have a feeling he reverts back to hurdles, much like Buveur D'Air did after a couple of chase runs where he doesn't quite convince. JP also has Sutton Place to throw in the mix which could dictate matters but i'd presume he would be more likely for the JLT anyway.

There's a stack of really promising horses in the market to add to the mix. Monalee is a stand out horse with a trainer that's a master over fences. Minella Awards, Debece, Ami Desbois, Topofthegame, Jerrysback, Elegant Escape, Mr Big Shot are just a few done the list who have plenty of mentions in the horses to follow books/lists which do a far better job at making there case than I could.

One who I haven't heard too much about so far is Robin Roe, which is slightly concerning considering he missed the majority of last year. Has anyone heard any news? Skelton is keeping Captain Forez over hurdles (sadly) and he could keep Robin Roe over hurdles if he does come back ok but he was considered a chaser and being an ex point to pointer, 3mile chasing could very well come into consideration. That 12 length beating of No Comment got stronger and stronger as the season went on with him winning the next 3 before coming 2nd at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals. 25/1 so hardly a price with the concerns but one to keep an eye on.

I do think 20/1 is way too big though, in light of the GE comments about him not being right.

When Monalee is shorter in the betting, (albeit looking like further suits) DD just looks a notch above on their previous meetings. If you forgive the Cheltenham run, which we now have excuses for. I am struggling to forgive the run after that though. Altthough a 7L 3rd to Bacardys/FO might not be bad form by any means, he was travelling all over by FO, and that means I only see FO as a stand out horse as a novice chaser.

I did have Neon Wolf in that department, but being ultra critial, getting beaten a head by Willoiughby Court, at best, will only ever show he was as good as his generation.

ALl in all I actually feel this is a very average crop of novice chasers. When Yanworth, as a horse late to the game that was put in his place in the CH is near the top of two markets, and the Arkle is 16/1 the field, I think its tough to argue it is a vintage year.

Without going in to the stats, I have a very firm belief that when horses beat each other, over a season, it means it is NOT a vintage year.

With that in mind, I feel hurdles form isn't going to be anywhere near as relevant as what we SEE when these horses become chasers. They are different disciplines and for me, (ignoring my awful 1 year + ante post bet on DD) I will be trying to look at this season as a seperate entity this year... because they we're all so closely matched last year