For those recovering from Turkey stuffed with family invasions, Black Friday’s, Cyber Monday’s and who looking for some sanity, albeit brief until Christmas and Hanukkah start spreading good cheer and gifts, you’re in luck.

There is always time to get “Punched”

Breaking with tradition for the first time in 17 years, that Louisiana and New Orleans favorite, Politics with a Punch will be hosting a holiday special, Wednesday, November 28. Punch has been held on Thursday evenings ever since the first show at le Chat Noir, going all the way back to the turn of the century.

This show, as the dozens of others before it will showcase the best talents in the world of politics, the arts, comedy, sports and the media. Here is the panel:

Ro Brown, Veteran Sportscaster, UNO Athletic Department

Christy Marino, Outstanding Comedian; Local Headliner

Mikko, Award Winning Actor; Comedian, Playwright

Tim Morris, Columnist; Times Picayune and Nola.Com

John Osterlind, Morning Radio Host, Bayou 95.7 FM

Bernie Pinsonat, Pollster, Consultant and Political Analyst

Hon. John Schroder, State Treasurer of Louisiana

Politics with a Punch is held at the The Eiffel Society, 2040 St. Charles Avenue, New Orleans.

Doors open at 6 p.m., the event begins at 8 p.m. Attendees can purchase dinner and/or drinks before the program.

The political comedy is the brainchild of Stephen Sabludowky, attorney and publisher of Bayoubuzz.com and of Ringisde Politics’s Jeff Crouere.

Ok, folks. Is the Louisiana Democratic Party now the “Comeback Kid”, now that a virtual nobody in the political world, without any campaign money was able to get within ten points from taking home all of the treasurer marbles in the most recent Louisiana Treasurer’s race, which concluded Saturday night?

Face it. Derrick Edwards lost to John Schroder by only ten points, this weekend. Compared to prior elections in which the Democrats were well-funded and were led by well-known statewide candidates, that margin glows.

An African American candidate, with no prior name-face recognition, took on and had a respectable showing against a Republican member of the House of Representatives, who bested two other Republicans for the runoff.

Keep in mind, the Republicans that Schroder beat had strong name-recognition at least within their own areas of comfort. One, former State Senator, Neil Riser, had run statewide before in the US Senate and the other Angelle Davis, had three top posts in state government.

Therefore, does this mean the tide has turned and the Dems are now creeping back into favor?

As Christopher Tidmore, one of the guests in the Facebook Live in which this issue was discussed, had noted, “wishful thinking”.

Indeed, wishful thinking might be a nice way to put it. Election followers know that Louisiana is as red as Alabama and Democrats, well, they just don’t win statewide anymore, with a unique exception—John Bel Edwards upset of Republican US Senator, David Vitter. These weekend numbers were an aberration in part to the lack of interest in the election statewide and a somewhat combative Mayor’s race in New Orleans, the hub of Democratic Party. Low statewide turnout, pretty good voters' numbers in Orleans, spelled a ten-point differential in the Louisiana Treasurer’s race.

Despite the very narrow window opened for Democrats as a result of this recent contest, there are still some very interesting developments that both parties must consider, going forward.

As my other Facebook Live guest John Couvillon pointed out, the Democratic Party has shifted from Edwin Edwards and John Breaux and from its political capitols of Avoyelles, Evangeline and Vermillion Parishes to Orleans Parish.

So, post-election, what are the futures for the Louisiana Republican and Democratic Parties?

For that answer, watch the video in which Louisiana Weekly political editor and WRNO Radio weekend talk show host Christopher Tidmore and John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling of Louisiana discuss the paradigm shift and the future of the party, post fall elections 2017.

The Louisiana Treasurer’s race could go down into history as a "most peculiar election”. Or, how about, Louisiana’s Rodney Dangerfield race? Or, both?

When looking back at Saturday’s match ultimately won by John Schroder against Derrick Edwards, Simon and Garfunkel's "Most Peculiar Man" crosses my mind. If anything, the race a "stranger than strange" competition. John Couvillon, one of the two panelists on Bayoubuzz's Facebook Live discussion this morning, has an interesting take. He looks at the race as the Rodney Dangerfield political clash, an election that simply got “no respect”.

Couvillon, President and CEO of JMC Analytics and Polling made those remarks in the election post-mortem with Christopher Tidmore, political editor for the Louisiana Weekly Newspaper and a WRNO Radio weekend talk radio show co-host.

So why consider the 2017 Treasurer's race one that got no respect or one that was most peculiar?

The victor of the statewide runoff election, Schroder, is a Republican, former member of the Louisiana House of Representatives. He bested African American Democrat Edwards, a talented but virtually unknown politician, 55.74% to a respectable 44.26%. This was a very respectable result for Edwards, especially considering the substantial differences in overall name recognition, campaign funding and political party support.

For a better perspective, let’s look at some recent Louisiana election history.

By comparison, very well-known African American Democrat, former State Senator and ex-US Congressman, Cleo Fields, only received 36% in a 1995 gubernatorial runoff against Mike Foster, who garnered 64% of the vote.

Also, by comparison, in 1999, Foster walloped the black and former Democratic Louisiana legislator and Congressman William “Bill” Jefferson. Foster scored 66.17% of the vote, Jefferson only 29.53% in the primary.

Fast forward to 2016. Public Service Commissioner and former gubernatorial candidate from North Louisiana Foster Campbell only capture 39% against State Treasurer John Kennedy in the recent US Senate contest.

So, what was the underpinning of this “most peculiar”, Rodney Dangerfield Louisiana election? In short, a race lacking interest and votes, yet, an equally dispassionate New Orleans Mayor’s race which skewed the statewide numbers.

Below is a partial transcript of part 1 of the Facebook Live interview I conducted with Couvillon and Tidmore.

After reading the transcript, do please watch the rest of this video segment by starting the video at the 5:55 point. We discuss this strange race and the New Orleans impact.

In the near future, we will put up more of the full interview covering the Treasurer’s and Orleans Parish election.

COUVILLON: This was this was truly a unique election in that New Orleans had an outsized influence on the statewide results given that this was the first time you had ever had a combination of number one municipal elections in New Orleans combined with number two a statewide election that not many people were interested in. So Orleans Parish which normally would have been eight to nine percent of the statewide vote turned in 22 percent in the runoff which by the way was up from 19 percent--and just to illustrate how massive this difference was in terms of the results on the outcome, I had taken the 2016 Senate runoff and pretended for a second that 22 percent of the results or 22 percent of the voters came from New Orleans, in that situation John Kennedy's support would have dropped from 61 to 55 percent, which is nearly identical to what of course John Schroder got Saturday night and to further titillate you with just how massive New Orleans influence was on the statewide vote, if we had gone all the way back to 2014, and made Orleans Parish 22 percent rather than eight percent of the statewide vote, Mary Landrieu would have been reelected by eighty five hundred votes. So when you have one parish that comprised 22 percent of the electorate and Derek Edwards got 80 percent of that, which by the way I calculated he got that 80 percent by getting 53 percent of the white vote which means that obviously he picked up some Neil Riser votes and, in addition, of course, he's going to get unanimous black vote--so that's what I found interesting in the treasurer's race was that it was closer than people with stereotypically would have thought it to be.

SABLUDOWSKY: Christopher, based on your evaluation in numbers, were you surprised that race was actually close

TIDMORE: Well here's what one of the things that senior Democrats, and of course I am NOT a political demographer and pollster like John is and lack his expertise I'm a lower form of life I'm a reporter, and when I when I deal with these things a lot of Democrats we're coming out and saying that-- Derek Edwards--this is way back before the primary he was running, ithey wanted to keep him out of the race because he'd only get 35-40 percent of the vote, he'd find a really low threshold, Edwards surprised a lot of people. Not so much as his scenario that he was selling, that because of a high municipal turnout in Orleans and the fact that there was virtually nothing on the ballot in so many other areas, and that those few places that did have something else on the ballot like Jefferson Parish with its millage election, was gonna to out-right bring Democrats out, he was selling a narrative that he could win this race against John Schroeder. As we talked on Friday, I thought that was unlikely. But he was right that he was a much more serious candidate because of the political dynamics of this unusual election season. And New Orleans really did deliver for him. A lot of white Democrats who came out in favor of Latoya Cantrell and to some extent Desiree Charbonnet, actually voted for Derek Edwards, as John pointed out. And so he was a pretty mainstream candidate--it says something that an African-American candidate can do better than say, half a generation ago, Cleo Fields or Bill Jefferson did running for governor.

COUVILLON: The other thing that was interesting too that contributed to Derek Edwards as showing, was--I would call the treasurer's race, for a lack of a better or more articulate term, the Rodney Dangerfield race, as in it couldn't get any respect, let me give you some specific numbers to illustrate what I mean about not getting any respect--in 26 parishes, the treasurer's race was the only thing on the ballot. In 38 more parishes, the treasurer shared the ballot with other parish wide issues--which typically were taxes-- in the case of New Orleans it was municipal--the mayor's runoff--what I found interesting though, and this honestly is the first time I've ever seen this happen, is that in 11 of those 38 parishes where the treasurer's race was sharing a parish wide ballot with something else, in 11 of those parishes, less people voted for the treasurer's race than they did for down ballot items like taxes in the mayor's race. I have honestly never seen that happen. In other words, when you're talking about-- just use one specific example, approximately 81 thousand in Orleans Parish voted for treasurer and 85,000 voted for the mayor's race, I saw that pattern replicate itself attend other parishes, and I found that quite interesting because you would never expect the down-ballot race to be outperforming the treasurer's race ,but that just shows how little interest that there was in this race. And incidently the other thing too, to add to what Christopher was saying about the narrative, I was looking at black and white turnout in all 64 parishes, the thing that fascinated me was--both white and black turnout were up in New Orleans relative to the primary. Black turnout however in Orleans Parish was up 12 percent, but, in the other 63 parishes, white turnout dropped 16 percent, black turnout actually increased in those other sixty three parishes relative to what it was in the primary, so what I'm getting out here is that all the stars were aligning for Derrick Edwards--and he ended up getting almost exactly the same share the vote that Kip Holden did and his lieutenant governor's race two years ago, although Kip had one advantage that Derrick didn't and that was being at the time a popular mayor of Baton Rouge, which of course is the epicenter of a media market covering 20% of the state, that gave Kip some name recognition but Derrick had an advantage in that besides the New Orleans mayor's race, he was the only Democrat in race, and he had the last name that was Edwards.

Last night, John Schroder, now-Louisiana Treasurer-elect, won a convincing victory against Democrat Derrick Edwards in an election that had worse than an abysmal turnout. John Couvillon President and JMC Polling and Analytics published the following early Sunday morning on his website:

The 2017 election cycle in Louisiana has concluded with last night’s runoffs, and Republican former state representative John Schroder is now State Treasurer. However, his 56-44% victory was identical to the margin that Republican Bill Cassidy defeated Mary Landrieu in the 2014 runoffs. There was a unique set of circumstances at play leading to this identical result, which can be explained by these highlights gleaned from examination of unofficial precinct data:

Extremely low voter turnout: In the primary, 401K voted in the Treasurer’s race, which itself was abysmal for a statewide election. That low turnout further dropped to 373K (or 13%) in the runoff;

Statewide turnout was actually propped up by the mayoral runoff in New Orleans, and turnout in that one parish increased 12% over primary turnout. At the same time, turnout dropped 11% in the other 63 parishes. Because of this, an unprecedented 22% of the statewide vote came from Orleans Parish – compared to an already high 19% of the statewide primary vote coming from this one parish;

Early voting remains popular: JMC has calculated that in the primary, 23% of the vote was cast early, while in the runoff, 25% did. That is just shy of the record 26% who early voted for the 2016 Presidential election. More importantly, this marks the sixth statewide election in a row starting with the October 2015 statewide primary where early voting has exceeded 20% of the total vote cast;

Stronger black turnout: In the primary, the breakdown of the electorate was 71-26% white/black, which is on the low side for black turnout. From unofficial precinct data, JMC has estimated that turnout in white precincts decreased 14% from the primary, while black turnout increased 6%. This resulted in an estimated 67-31% white/black electorate – the last time black turnout was this strong was for the 2012 Presidential race (with Barack Obama on the ballot);

A new Democratic voting base: Increasingly, the base Democratic vote in Louisiana has two consistent components to it: (1) a near unanimous black vote (although numerical turnout varies from election to election), and (2) a more liberal white voter base from both Orleans and East Baton Rouge Parishes (Despite an essentially invisible runoff campaign, Edwards received 53% of the white vote in Orleans and 27% in East Baton Rouge).

Might tomorrow’s New Orleans Mayors Race be so negative and dirty that it could result in a Desiree Charbonnet victory over LaToya Cantrell and a landslide victory for Republican John Schroder over Democrat Derrick Edwards n the Louisiana treasurer's race?

This scenario, although very remote, seems to be within the margins of fair possibilities according to Christopher Tidmore, who painted this perhaps shocking picture for tomorrow’s runoff.

Tidmore, is the political editor for the Louisiana Weekly and who has a weekend radio talk show on WRNO made his comments this morning during a Bayoubuzz Facebook live video.

Why a shocking picture? After all, based upon the polls and perhaps the conventional wisdom on the streets, Cantrell has a substantial lead over Charbonnet, anywhere from ten to 20 points, perhaps. Thus, an actual turnout that presents Charbonnet as the victor would seem quite unlikely. Also, John Schroder is expected to win in a virtual landslide against Democrat Edwards simply due to the fact that Louisiana is a ruby-red state and Schroder is a Republican. Experts say the only way that Edwards can win is if the turnout is so massive in New Orleans and so poor in elsewhere Louisiana, that the Democrats will come out, giving Edwards the edge. Thus, a very poor turnout torpedos Edwards' chance of winning.

Here's the picture--Tidmore said that he has covered hundreds of races and has never seen one as dirty as this Mayor’s race and as a result, the mud being thrown could have some very interesting effects--namely that remarkably low turnout. Plus, if you factor in other developments such as the efforts by Republican Congressman Cedric Richmond to help James Gray in the District E contest and to aid Charbonnet, the race gets tighter. Add, Republican Congressman Steve Scalise's endorsement of Charbonnet from earlier this week (and add other political considerations to the paint mix), Charbonnet could get more people to the polls than Cantrell.

I do well, probably better than the two mayoral candidates are doing right now who both look like beat up pieces of meat.

I have to say, Steve, I have covered dozens of elections, probably hundreds. I have never seen an election as dirty as this election is. Think about the ads that were on just this morning. On the one hand, you had Desiree Charbonnet--Latoya Cantrell and her allies attacking Desiree Charbonnet for having, essentially not only be supportive by strip clubs--but the implication by one of the speakers was “and, you know the strip clubs don't do a lot about sex trafficking”.

As if Desiree Charbonnet or anyone around her has anything to do with sex trafficking. Conversely, you have blatant ads supported by supporters of Charbonnet that come out and say-- "well she's straight out of Compton"

It's a racial implication, and the racial card is being played, but, it's also the argument that Latoya Cantrell is essentially on the same level as Roy Nagin and will soon end up in prison. And when you look at the two sides, it's one of the situations where the old adage--"My distinguished opponent, when was the last time you beat your wife"?.

How do you answer this? And one of the side effects of all this race is--I think this may be one of the lowest turnout runoffs we have ever seen in a competitive New Orleans election. And that has major implications for the council B & E races and for the treasurer's race, statewide. It may be the best thing that happened to John Schroder.in that particular race.

Based upon absentee ballots cast, the turnout for the upcoming Louisiana Treasurer's race might be even lower than the primary turnout, which some elections followers believe were the lowest percentage-wise statewide turnout in modern Louisiana history. So, assuming an even lower turnout, might it have an impact upon the race between John Schroder, a Republican and Democrat Derrick Edwards?

One expert, who has measured the turnouts, John Couvillon of JMC Polling and Analytics, previously discussed the recent turnout and the prospects of the election results and published his opinion in his newsletter. At that time, he felt that given the very low turnout, and given the fact that the Democratic and black dominant vote in the New Orleans Mayor's race could skew the statewide results, the white turnout would need to be substantially lower than before and the black turnout, substantially higher than the recent elections in October.

Here is an update:

In person early voting has just concluded for the November 18 runoff. As before, the special election for Treasurer is at the top of the ballot, as are several unsettled races in New Orleans, a state representative race in Covington for the House seat vacated by John Schroder (who resigned his seat to run for Treasurer), and a Court Judge’s race in south Baton Rouge, just to name a few items on the ballot throughout the state. Absentee/mail in ballots can still be accepted throughout next week, although those ballots are typically a minute (about 5-10%) portion of all early/absentee votes cast.

Somewhat lower turnout

At the conclusion of in person early voting after the primary, 92,314 early voted, and the primary early voters were 72-26% white/black and 49-40% Democrat/Republican. For the runoff, 85,626 early voted (early voting volume up to this point was 7% less than it was in the primary), and these early voters were somewhat more Democratic (68-29% white/black and 50-39% Democrat/Republican) – Democrats turned out yesterday in disproportionate numbers, as JMC had previously forecast (i.e., Democrats maximize their early vote on the first and last Saturdays of early voting).

Those in New Orleans (who have several contested runoffs on their ballot) also voted in higher numbers, and Orleans Parish represented an unusually high 21% of the early vote (it was 17% at the end of primary early voting, and is typically 8-10% of the statewide electorate). This unusually high 21% figure is because in absolute numbers, Orleans Parish early voting turnout was 14% higher than it was in the primary, while in the other 63 parishes, turnout was 12% less.

Can New Orleans alone elect a Democratic Treasurer ?

Given that the predominant talk in some political circles was that New Orleans alone could swing the Treasurer’s race to Democrat Derrick Edwards, JMC decided to test this hypothesis a week ago, and determined that all four of the following had to happen:

72% decrease in turnout in the other 63 parishes, (As of last night, turnout decreased 12%)

Edwards’ receiving 58% of the Riser vote in Orleans Parish, and

Edwards’ receiving 58% of the Davis vote in East Baton Rouge Parish.

Given these turnout numbers so far, even assuming that Edwards gets the crossover vote described above, that still gets him only to 39% of the vote.

JMC’s projections of early voting volume, overall turnout

Projecting turnout is a constantly moving target throughout early voting week, but since early voting has been in existence in Louisiana for a decade, JMC has established (and continuously refined) benchmarks that can be used to project early voting and/or final turnout.

In this case, JMC’s opinion is that runoff turnout will be somewhat less than it was in the primary. More specifically:

Projected early/absentee vote: 88-95K (97K in the October primary)

Projected turnout volume: 367-396K (424K in the October primary)

Projected turnout percentage: 11-12% (14% in the October primary)

In Conclusion

Why does early voting matter? When the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting a decade ago, you now have a noticeable constituency of people who prefer the convenience of early voting, and this constituency has for five times in a row (the 2015 primary, 2015 runoff, 2016 Presidential elections, December 2016 runoff, and October 2017 primary) exceeded 20% – it was 24% in the October primary. A politician would be foolish to ignore this many “up front” voters, especially in a closely contested race. Also, too, early voting numbers are the first ones that are typically reported after polls have closed at 8 PM.

Saturday, November 18 is election day for those few dedicated souls who will bother to go to the polls and vote. The only statewide race on the ballot is the special election for state treasurer. There will be a smattering of local elections, such as for mayor of New Orleans and the Caddo Commission. The special election for state treasurer is to replace John Kennedy, who was elected to the U.S. Senate.

The candidates are Republican John Schroder and Democrat Derrick Edwards. Schroder, who is white, lives in Covington. He is a veteran, small businessman, real estate agent, a developer, and a former state legislator. He is very serious about wanting this position. He has spent nearly one million dollars as of October 29 – $910,105 to be exact. It is likely that his total expenditures will exceed one million dollars when all is said and done.

When he started the race, he already had $500,000 cash on hand. He has raised another $599,819 through October 29. Of that total, $74,948 came from Political Actions Committees (PACs). Edwards is a far different story. He is black and is paralyzed from the neck down from a catastrophic football injury in 1989. Even after the injury, he graduated with his high school class on time. Edwards went on to receive three college degrees, including a law degree. He is a practicing attorney in New Orleans. He has raised only $30,590 of which $7,200 are loans to his committee. He has spent $22,829 on the race. While Schroder is considered the overwhelming favorite in this election, Republicans are a bit nervous about voter turnout, which some officials are predicting will be in single digits. The concern comes from the fact that there is a competitive race for mayor of New Orleans between two female candidates that should draw a good turnout of voters. Most of those voters would likely vote for Edwards. In the primary, Edwards finished first with 31% of the vote, while Schroder came in with 24%. But of the total vote, 66% went to Republican candidates.

This morning, I discovered that LaToya Cantrell is ahead of Desiree Charbonnet by a whopping 18 points, according to a research firm LJR Custom Strategies on behalf of the local branch of a national education reform organization, Democrats for Education Reform.

According to NOLA.com, Cantrell, who led by 9 points on primary election day a few weeks ago has taken an overwhelming 18-point lead. This surge would be an amazing feat considering she has taken a beating from media stories and from Cantrell’s opponent, Desiree Charbonnet.over the credit card controversy, turned scandal.

If the poll, is, in fact, accurate, it could send shockwaves throughout the city and statewide electorate and among political observers and of course, let's include the media. It also could be the "proverbial nail in the coffin" of the Derrick Edwards campaign aspirations, which is fighting an uphill battle for Louisiana Treasurer against Republican John Schroder (the nail remark will be explained later).

As per NOLA:

“Cantrell, a sitting city councilwoman, was 18 points ahead, 44 percent to Charbonnet's 26 percent, when the polling concluded Nov. 2. The survey began Oct. 24 with plans to target 600 likely voters, but the research firm LJR Custom Strategies added another 400 after news broke about Cantrell's spending.

The survey had a 3-point margin of error. The first 600 participants were asked questions Oct. 24 through Oct. 26 about the mayor's race and New Orleans' education system. After the credit card controversy became public, another 400 voters were polled just about the mayor's race. The survey concluded Nov. 2.

After reading the article, I dispatched a letter to the Charbonnet campaign to get its position on the poll.

Then, during my weekly Tuesday morning appearance on Jeff Crouere’s radio talk show on WGNO 990 AM, I discussed the results. I noted that I found it somewhat strange that out of all of the people and organizations who would be polling this race, the only survey made public so far during the runoff season would come from a statewide advocacy organization dealing with Education. After all, education, while absolutely critical for the survival of the City of New Orleans is not run by the New Orleans Mayor, but the School Board and according to the NOLA article, there is not much space between Cantrell and Charbonnet on the education issue.

After the radio show, I read the email response from the Charbonnet campaign.

That response from Kevin Stuart said, “With the recent revelations of Cantrell’s illegal use of the city credit card, our internal numbers show the race tightening substantially. It’s no surprise that a group closely aligned with Leslie Jacobs and Latoya Cantrell has publicized numbers that say something different, but their methodology is faulty and, to put it simply, their numbers are wrong. “

Leslie Jacobs is a major contributor to the anti-Charbonnet candidacy Super PAC, NotForSaleNola.com. According to reports released a week prior to the election, she has contributed a whopping $40,000 to the anti-Charbonnet cause. Perhaps it might be more since the release date roughly ten days prior to general election day.

Jacobs is a Democrat and a former candidate for New Orleans Mayor. She has been one of the leading forces for education reform in Louisiana which includes advocating charter schools. Democrats for Education Reform also supports charter schools, which has not been a burning issue for the Democratic Party, and, in fact, the Democrats, in general, have been staunch opponents of charter schools.

in fairness, have found no document or contribution showing any relationship between Jacobs and the Democrats for Education Reform, thus, cannot confirm any connection between Jacobs, a very strong opponent to the Charbonnet campaign and this poll Again, if accurate, the poll might help cement the mayoral campaign mindset going into the elections. Campaign funding often goes with the candidate with the big 'Mo, and surely, an 18-point lead would push that momentum train into top gear.

Indeed Cantrell has picked up major endorsements since primary election day, including from the two top losing candidates, Michael Bagneris and Troy Henry. Still, the conventional wisdom, I would have thought, based upon all of the controversy related to the credit card scandal, might have cut into Cantrell’s lead. I surely have not expected it to make little or no difference. I absolutely would not have expected an 18-point Cantrell lead.

Keep in mind, as we know, especially during this era of Trump, polls don’t dictate the end-results. Two respected pollsters were off the mark prior to the October's primary election. Verne Kennedy of MRI (Media Research Institute) whose gubernatorial poll were the closest to the final tally, showed Michael Bagneris with 33 percent of the vote with a six to a seven-point lead over Cantrell and Charbonnet. Another poll, this one closer to election day, commissioned by The Advocate and WWL TV and conducted by Ron Faucheux, had Bagneris at 19 percent. The Judge indeed ended up with 19 percent. Faucheux’s poll also found Cantrell and Charbonnet bunched up with Cantrell leading Charbonnet, by 1 point, 27 to 26 percent. Kennedy’s poll which was publicly released and paid for by private business persons said Charbonnet was coming in second with 30 percent, Cantrell, third with 23 percent.

The Charbonnet campaign will need to release its internal results or wait for another poll to be made public to offset the now-public assumption that Cantrell has taken a commanding lead, despite the credit card controversy which filled the airwaves.

Now, I know you've been waiting at the edge of your chair, so, let's talk about the poll and its impact upon the Louisiana Treasurer’s race: As mentioned on various occasions on Bayoubuzz and elsewhere, many have speculated that a very strong Orleans Parish turnout and a weak statewide count could result in a major upset of upsets. The thinking has been that Republicans and whites would not bother to vote at all since, in many parishes, nothing major, other than the treasurer's race is on the ballot. Otherwise, the notion that Democrat Edwards would defeat Republican former member of the House of Representatives, John Schroder, would be pure fantasy in a state, redder than conservative red.

However, it seems, John Couvillon of JMC Analytics has strongly debunked that possibility, as we republished yesterday on Bayoubuzz.

Going even further into “what if” mode, a turnout increase of 50% in Orleans Parish and a 72% turnout decrease in the other 63 parishes would only get Edwards up to 45% without a single vote from those who voted for Neil Riser or Angele Davis. The only remotely possible combination that would get Edwards to 50% on November 18 would be a combination of all of the following: (1) 50% turnout increase in Orleans Parish, (2) 72% decrease in turnout in the other 63 parishes, (3) Edwards receiving 58% of the Riser vote in Orleans Parish (Riser invested heavily in that one, heavily Democratic parish in the primary), and (4) Edwards receiving 58% of the Davis vote in East Baton Rouge Parish (Davis had good name recognition there from her extensive state government experience, combined with the fact that East Baton Rouge Parish Republican voters are more moderate – by today’s standard).

So, now--why would the New Orleans Mayor’s race poll be the final nail in that coffin?

In my opinion, a large almost insurmountable lead in the New Orleans Mayor’s race would suppress voter turnout in New Orleans. A tight race would absolutely result in a much larger turnout. A flaccid turnout in New Orleans virtually guarantees a Schroder win.

As political races always seem to go, speculation is a cheap commodity--which might describe my response to what I consider to be a somewhat shocking poll giving Cantrell this 18-point lead. And, surely, projecting the Louisiana treasurer's race-based upon that poll seems absolutely silly.

We know to a certainty, speculation and polls are often wrong.

Which is why the spin is in until the election day wash cycle completes.

Until then, something tells me, we have not heard the end of the discussion over that 18-point Cantrell lead.

Is there too much “sky is falling” projections for John Schroder in the upcoming Louisiana Treasurer’s Race? Perhaps, and possibly, this publication has contributed to the suspense and speculation.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that Schroder might have a very difficult time getting out the vote, sufficiently so, his opponent, Derrick Edwards, an African American Democrat, might somehow squeeze into the victory column. I noted that there were no real major contested elections in Louisiana other than the race for Orleans Parish. There is one election, a Northshore House race between two Republicans fighting for Schroder’s old House position, which he vacated to run for Treasurer.

Keep in mind, I generally believe there is hardly any chance for a Republican to win in Louisiana, statewide, but for a fluke election, such as the one we saw in which John Bel Edwards bested David Vitter, who had lost favor among many of his Republican supporters, for a variety of reasons. So, taking the position that the state just doesn’t care about this race and won’t vote, but those in Orleans Parish, who might go to the polls due to a New Orleans Mayor’s Race contest, will turn out, the logical conclusion would be that Edwards might somehow prevail as the Republicans and white voters snoozed.

Obviously, I have not been alone in hearing the siren call. Stephanie Grace of the Advocate and Jeff Crouere, radio talk show host and columnist for Bayoubuzz have expressed the same beliefs.

On Friday, Crouere in a short interview, said, ““It's going to be very interesting because in many places, Steve, this is the only thing on the ballot and there's going to be an incredibly low turnout, there's very little interest in the race, little knowledge about it. People don't seem to be plugged in. So if I were John Schroeder, I would at least be worried because he needs a decent turnout for him to be comfortable about winning on the 18th.

SABLUDOWSKY: Do you think he has any concern, I mean, the idea that a Republican losing a Statewide election is almost Impossible two, in my opinion, to imagine at this point.CROUERE: Well, if New Orleans has a bigger turnout than we expect, the estimates I'm hearing are 30% 31, 32% maybe more roughly what I've been hearing, Then you have the possibility that this thing could be getting even closer because there would be a differential of maybe 30 points between New Orleans turn out and what we can see statewide. So I think that's what has John Schroeder a little bit concerned. I think he's really trying to hit his base. He's coming on my program, he's going to be doing various talk shows--just to remind people that he needs to get out the vote on the 18th.Early voting is obviously part of the strategy, so that's starting. But this would be an incredibly amazing result because Derek Edwards didn't even get the endorsement until recently of the Democratic party. That has so little faith in him that they didn't endorse him until recently.SABLUDOWSKY: Right right, just last week, so I'm looking at a quote from The Advocate today Where Tom Schedler, the Secretary of State, calculates that between 10 and 12 percent of Louisiana voters appears to be likely to vote which would be down from 12.5% from early October electionCROUERE: Well you have to assume that includes the higher turnout in Orleans. I assume the statewide number-- so if you take Orleans out of the election, it means that the Statewide turnout for Louisiana would be even lowerA Louisiana pollster, John Couvillon of JMC Polling and Analytics appear to be putting very cold water on the notion that Edwards could win by a squeaker. Not that he is claiming the Couvillon can’t lose, but, that based upon the numbers, the chances are seemingly very iffy. Why such low probability? Here is a relevant portion from his newsletter that essentially appears to be claiming that whites play such a commanding role in Louisiana politics and that even with horrible turnouts statewide, the numbers just are simply not there for a shocking election results.

Apparantly, Couvillon is not impressed with our potential Hail Mary speculation.Here are Couvillon’s comments from his weekend newsletter:

Minimal voter enthusiasmWhen Louisiana held its US Senate runoff last December, it was noteworthy that only 29% turned out to participate in this contest (which also featured a Congressional race in Acadiana and municipal runoffs in East Baton Rouge Parish). And after two days of December early voting, 44,474 early voted. This group of early voters was 78-19% white/black and 44-42% Republican/Democrat – abysmal numbers for Democrats.The October primary painted an even bleaker picture of how low turnout could get, with 14% statewide turnout, and after two days of early voting, 37,094 early voted. This group of early voters was 74-24% white/black and 50-40% Democrat/Republican – numbers that were somewhat more Democratic, at least when compared to the abysmal Democratic turnout numbers last December.After two days of runoff early voting, the already minimal enthusiasm of primary voters has declined even further, with 26,036 early voters, who are 71-27% white/black and 48-41% Democrat/Republican. While this is somewhat more Democratic than the primary, it’s also important to note that Saturdays (in JMC’s experience) are a day of the week when Democrats typically maximize their early voting turnout. It will be interesting to see whether the initial Democratic trend can sustain itself throughout the week.When comparing the early voting numbers to the primary after two days of early voting, two factors are impacting the numbers: mail in ballots and the New Orleans runoff.Mail and New OrleansAn initial glance of early voting numbers shows a 30% decline in volume relative to two days of primary early voting. However, primary early voting numbers were “spiked” by a surge of mail in ballots that were all counted on the first day. To illustrate, 22% of those voting early in last December’s runoff chose a mail in ballot. In the primary, that number jumped to 28%, and it was 52% after two days of early voting). This time, the mail in ballot volume was down 56% relative to the primary, while in person early voting (which is the majority of those who vote before Election Day) was only down 2%. In other words, while runoff early voting turnout is down, it’s JMC’s belief that the volume of in person early voting (as opposed to mail in volume) is at this point in the process a more accurate barometer of runoff early voting (and ultimately, Election Day) turnout.New Orleans was different. While statewide early voting volume is 30% less statewide after two days of early voting, it was 1% higher in New Orleans than after two days of early voting, thus resulting in Orleans Parish representing 19% of the total statewide early vote (it was 13% after two days of early voting). This 19% figure is unusually high for a parish that typically makes up 8-10% of the statewide vote.New Orleans has an elevated importance in this election cycle because of the timing of its municipal elections (several of which went to a runoff). Historically, its elections for Mayor, other parish wide offices, and the New Orleans City Council were held during Mardi Gras season. The timing of those elections was recently changed to the fall, and this is the first election cycle where New Orleans elections were held in conjunction with a statewide election cycle, thus giving this one parish a greater influence than it would normally have.New Orleans impactWhile Republican John Schroder (one of the two runoff contenders for the Treasurer’s race) is in a commanding position in the runoff (67% of primary voters chose a Republican candidate, while the lone Democrat (Derrick Edwards) received 31%), there has been speculation in journalistic and political circles about Edwards’ having a shot at winning the runoff, as only seven other parishes outside of Orleans have local offices on the ballot in addition to the Treasurer’s race.Given that this speculation has been publicized in several different places without any quantitative verification of this assumption, JMC decided it was time to use actual numbers to prove or debunk this “groupthink.”If we generously assumed that Orleans Parish sees a 20% increase in its turnout relative to the primary while the remaining 63 parishes see a 62% decrease in turnout, a combination of those two already improbable occurrences would only get Edwards up to 40% without a single vote from those who voted for Neil Riser or Angele Davis. Going even further into “what if” mode, a turnout increase of 50% in Orleans Parish and a 72% turnout decrease in the other 63 parishes would only get Edwards up to 45% without a single vote from those who voted for Neil Riser or Angele Davis. The only remotely possible combination that would get Edwards to 50% on November 18 would be a combination of all of the following: (1) 50% turnout increase in Orleans Parish, (2) 72% decrease in turnout in the other 63 parishes, (3) Edwards receiving 58% of the Riser vote in Orleans Parish (Riser invested heavily in that one, heavily Democratic parish in the primary), and (4) Edwards receiving 58% of the Davis vote in East Baton Rouge Parish (Davis had good name recognition there from her extensive state government experience, combined with the fact that East Baton Rouge Parish Republican voters are more moderate – by today’s standard).JMC’s projections of early voting volume, overall turnoutProjecting turnout is a constantly moving target throughout early voting week, but since early voting has been in existence in Louisiana for a decade, JMC has established (and continuously refined) benchmarks that can be used to project early voting and/or final turnout.In this case, JMC is of the initial opinion that runoff turnout will be somewhat less than it was in the primary. More specifically:• Projected early/absentee vote: 85-115K (97K in the October primary)• Projected turnout volume: 354-477K (424K in the October primary)• Projected turnout percentage: 12-16% (14% in the October primary)In ConclusionWhy does early voting matter? When the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting a decade ago, you now have a noticeable constituency of people who prefer the convenience of early voting, and this constituency has for five times in a row (the 2015 primary, 2015 runoff, 2016 Presidential elections, December 2016 runoff, and October 2017 primary) exceeded 20% – it was 24% in the October primary. A politician would be foolish to ignore this many “up front” voters, especially in a closely contested race. Also, too, early voting numbers are the first ones that are typically reported after polls have closed at 8 PM.

So, maybe it's too early and downright remote to be screaming Chicken Little in prognosticating this election.