MaudlinMutantMollusk:Tellingthem: Can the North even sustain an actual campaign? There is a huge difference between having a military and having a capable military....

I'm curious about how many of those million soldiers would invade the South so they could throw down their guns and get a little fish to go with their rice

/I wonder how much true, willing-to-die-for support the regime really has?

I would guess lots actually. They have been isolated and indoctrinated for so long I'm sure that they would be willing to die for the "dear leader" because they don't know anything else. Some quick skimming seems to indicate that while they would fight any attempt to take the south would be bloody and futile. They are using outdated and poorly maintained equipment, with poorly trained and under supplied troops. Basically a paper tiger. Big numbers but not very effective.

This has been a test of the Emergency Broadcast System. The broadcasters in your area, in voluntary cooperation with the FCC and other authorities have developed this system to keep you informed in the event of an emergency. If this had been an actual emergency, you would have been instructed where to tune in your area for news and official information. This concludes this test of the Emergency Broadcast System.

So, if Best Korea storms the south, their best defense will be a one mile long east to west buffet, just past the DMZ.

Anyone else read Nothing to Envy? Defectors escaping through China couldn't figure out why the Chinese were leaving bowls of food by their front doors. Then they finally realized, the food was for the pet dogs, and the dogs belonging to the Chinese ate better than they did in Best Korea.

jumac:A full blown nuke not in this life time. But how hard would it be to take a normal artillery shell and load it with some nuclear material. It be nothing more then a dirty boom. But it would spread some bad stuff.

Spread it about a city block or two wide. Major panic and freakout, but no more damage than, say, one artillery shell. You can't just take out some of the normal explosive in an artillery shell and replace it with plutonium/uranium/whatever, and get a nuclear detonation.

Spreading of 'radiation'? Sure. But the political fallout, and resultant military strikes, would be far, far worse.For them.

J. Frank Parnell:My predictions for the seemingly inevitable confrontation, is that NK will either strike SK first hoping to provoke the US into attacking them, or the US will be struck first, and after the US is sent into chaos SK will be easily overwhelmed.

My prediction should the Norks do anything stupid is that within a week Pyongyang is rubble, Kim is MIA, and the North Korean people are left staring glass eyed in the literal 'shock and awe' Rumsfailed had dreamed about. Can't say for certain how much damage the South would take, but I highly doubt its anywhere near alarmist proportions.

Best Korean military was at least a generation behind the Soviets back when there was a Soviet Union. That was twenty years ago, and China won't share the good stuff without proof of payment. The North has a few surprises and a lot of motivated troops, sure, but how far does all that go once the USAF and USN light up Pyongyang and all of Kim's favorite hidey holes?

YouPeopleAreCrazy:cptjeff: The problem is that the Best Koreans can lob a nuke or two at Seoul before our missiles get there.

Nogrhi: If I am not mistaken, they are certainly close enough to lob a nuclear based artillery shell into Seoul.

No, they can't.

1. They have maybe/possibly/probably detonated a nuclear device or two. Maybe. That does not equate to a series of launchable, deliverable, weapons.

2. They have yet to demonstrate any accurate targeting beyond 'go up, come down, hit the ocean'.2.1 Putting something in orbit, once, is 1/3 the difficulty of putting a ballistic missile up, and bringing it down with some vague semblance of accuracy.

Seoul is not a small target- and they don't need perfect reliability if they launch 5. They do have decently functional short range missiles. Medium and long range? Not so much. But Seoul is about 35 kilometers from the North- they can do that.

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to bend over and kiss you and your loved ones sorry asses goodbye. This concludes this test of the Emergency Broadcast System.

NEDM:MaudlinMutantMollusk: DrPainMD: Their problem equals their problem. Close our bases in SK and wish them the best of ruck.

But... but... DOMINOES!

/yeah...why are we still playing this '50s sh*t?//gotta have reasons for that bloated defense budget, I guess

Because the Korean War never ended, and we have actual diplomatic defense pacts with the South Koreans. Korea is not like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

The Korean War was a UN police action to support the non-communist government of South Korea against the evil Chinese commie backed North. It was firmly based in the concept of the Cold War "domino" theory

cptjeff:Seoul is not a small target- and they don't need perfect reliability if they launch 5. They do have decently functional short range missiles. Medium and long range? Not so much. But Seoul is about 35 kilometers from the North- they can do that.

Regular artillery shells, yes.Nuke artillery shells (or short range small missile), not for a long, long while.

It takes an asslaoad of engineering to create a viable nuclear weapon small enough and tough enough to withstand a missile launch.

TV's Vinnie:"No good little American punks! They think they're so cool and smart. I'LL SHOW THEM! I'm gonna call them up and tell them that they suck and I'm so hot that I get all the girls and that they'd better treat me with some RES-PECT and give me whatever I want or I'm gonna use these things that Daddy left for me. Yeah! They won't be laughing at me anymore if I do that!"

You think a war with North Korea would be bad for the Nikkei or HK markets? It might hurt South Korea if Seoul gets shelled, but NK falling will be great for the economies of East Asia. Lots of lucrative rebuilding contracts and investment opportunities in a pretty much fresh and untapped market.

Now That's What I Call a Taco!:davidphogan: Lost Thought 00: Looks like the little tyke thinks he needs a military conflict to cement his power. We do need to wait for them to make the first move, so we have enough authority to completely wipe them out, instead of being stuck with half-measures

I wonder how much of this is a response to outside efforts (real or imagined) to destabilize the government in a transitional period.

That or he's dumber and crazier than his Dad ever was.

Couple of other possibilities:

- Un is just a puppet at this point for other senior military hardliners who are actually making these decisions.

- Un is doing the one making these decisions, but he's doing it to gain the trust and loyalty of those senior military hardliners, who may mistrust the kid with the Swiss education and love for certain aspects of Western culture (like Dennis Rodman and the Chicago Bulls).

Those are both very valid points. The first one at least I figured would fall under my post, because if the senior military guys are suddenly making this move it's probably at least in part due to concerns the US/RoK/Japan are going to set up a coup or something that might save Un, but eliminate many of the military higher ups.

As for idea two, I hope you're wrong. A person with that mentality having nukes is really a scary idea.