August 23, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds that Donald Trump's approval rating is pretty steady in the wake of the Charlottesville attack, probably because his supporters think that whites and Christians are the most oppressed groups of people in the country. 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 53% who disapprove, little change from the 41/55 spread we found for him in July.

The reason Trump hasn't lost more ground for his widely panned response to the attack is probably that many of his supporters agree with some of the beliefs that led white supremacists to rally in Charlottesville in the first place. Asked what racial group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 45% of Trump voters say it's white people followed by 17% for Native Americans with 16% picking African Americans, and 5% picking Latinos. Asked what religious group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 54% of Trump voters says it's Christians followed by 22% for Muslims and 12% for Jews. There is a mindset among many Trump voters that it's whites and Christians getting trampled on in America that makes it unlikely they would abandon Trump over his 'both sides' rhetoric.

Overall 89% of Americans have a negative opinion of neo-Nazis to 3% with a positive one, and 87% have an unfavorable opinion of white supremacists to 4% with a positive one. Just 11% agree with the sentiment that it's possible for white supremacists and neo-Nazis to be 'very fine people,' to 69% who say that's not possible.

Confederate Issues

Voters have nuanced views when it comes to Confederate monuments. Overall 39% say they support monuments honoring the Confederacy to 34% who say they oppose them. That's basically unchanged from the 42/35 spread we found on this question when we polled it in June. Trump voters support them by a 71/10 spread- to put those numbers into perspective only 65% of Trump voters oppose Obamacare, so this is a greater unifier for the Trump base. Even though voters narrowly support the monuments though, 58% also say they support relocating them from government property and moving them to museums or other historic sites where they can be viewed in proper historical context. There's bipartisan support for that approach with Democrats (72/14), independents (52/27), and Republicans (46/42) all in favor of it. Voters don't necessarily want Confederate monuments destroyed, but they also don't necessarily think they need to be places where everyone is forced to walk by them every day.

Robert E. Lee has a 36/24 favorability with Americans, with 40% having no opinion of him either way. He's at a 61/10 spread with Trump voters but just a 17/40 spread with Clinton voters. In a finding that says a lot about how we got to where we are today, Trump voters say they would rather have Jefferson Davis as President than Barack Obama 45/20. Obama wins that question 56/21 with the overall electorate.

Congress and 2018

Things are continuing to look good for Democrats in 2018, as they lead the generic Congressional ballot 49-35. The 14 point lead for Democrats may be too good to be true though- it's a function of a highly divided Republican base at this point. While Clinton voters say they'll vote Democratic for Congress next year 90-4, Trump voters say they will vote Republican by only a 74-13 margin. Part of the reason Republicans have done better than expected in 2014 and 2016 is they were divided earlier in the cycle and came together by the end, we will see if that trend continues in 2018.

A big part of the division among Republicans is being caused by extreme unhappiness with their Congressional leaders, perhaps driven by Donald Trump's attacks on them. Both Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell now have the worst numbers we've ever seen for them. Only 16% of voters approve of the job Ryan is doing to 62% who disapprove. A big part of that is even among Trump voters he has only a 30% approval rating with 52% disapproving of him. Ryan comes out looking popular in comparison to McConnell though. His approval rating is just 9%, with 61% of voters disapproving of him. Among Trump voters he receives just a 15% approval rating to 59% disapproving of him, not all that dissimilar from his 68% disapproval with Clinton voters. The possible pitfall for Trump with the attacks on GOP Congressional leaders is disincentivizing his base to go vote for them next year.

Their failed efforts on health care are a big part of what's causing Congressional Republicans problems. Only 25% of voters support the health care bill that was considered by Congress last month, to 57% who disapprove of it. Even among GOP voters there's less than majority support, with 48% in favor of it to 34% who are opposed. At this point only 33% of voters think the best path forward on health care is repealing Obamacare, to 57% who think it's keeping the current law and making fixes to it as necessary. Voters say by a 21 point margin that they're less likely to vote for a GOP member of Congress who supported the repeal bill- 46% are less likely to vote for such a person to 25% who are more likely to, with 22% saying it doesn't make a difference either way.

Overall Congress has a 9% approval rating, with 73% of voters disapproving of it. It's at 12/77 with Trump voters and 8/73 with Clinton voters.

Trump, His Promises, and 2020

Trump continues to be unpopular, with a 40/53 approval spread. Voters think he has failed on two of the core promises of his campaign. Only 15% believe he has been successful in 'draining the swamp,' to 64% who say he hasn't. Even among Trump's own voters just 26% think he has delivered on this promise to 53% who say he hasn't. When it comes to whether Trump has come through on 'Making America Great Again,' just 33% of voters say he has to 59% who say he hasn't.

Some of Trump's issues are related to policy. For instance only 31% of voters agree with his edict to ban transgender individuals from the military, to 57% who oppose it. Similarly only 34% of voters support his proposed wall with Mexico, to 55% of voters who oppose it.

Trump also has issues with how voters feel about his character. Only 39% think he is honest, to 55% who say he is not. In fact 49% of voters come right out and call Trump a liar, with only 43% disagreeing with that characterization. By a 39/34 spread voters express the belief that Trump is more corrupt than Richard Nixon.

Another thing hurting Trump's standing is a perceived lack of transparency. 61% of voters still think he should release his tax returns to 33% who don't think it's necessary for him to. In fact by a 55/31 spread voters support a law requiring the release of 5 years of tax returns for a Presidential candidate to even appear on the ballot.

The upshot of all this is for the fourth month in a row we find a plurality of voters in support of impeaching Trump- 48% say he should be impeached to 41% who disagree. And there continues to be a significant yearning for a return to the days of President Obama- 52% of voters say they wish Obama was still President to only 39% who prefer having Trump in the White House.

Trump continues to trail both Bernie Sanders (51/38) and Joe Biden (51/39) by double digits in possible 2020 match ups. PPP never found Hillary Clinton up by more than 7 points on Trump in 2016. Sanders and Biden each win over 12-14% of the folks who voted for Trump last year. Also leading Trump in hypothetical contests at this point are Elizabeth Warren (45/40), Mark Cuban (42/38), and Cory Booker and Trump Twitter Target Richard Blumenthal (42/39). Trump ties Kamala Harris at 39% each and John Delaney at 38% each.

Generally speaking just 57% of Republicans want Trump to be the party's nominee again in 2020 to 29% who say they would prefer someone else. That 28 point margin for Trump against 'someone else' is the same as his 28 point lead over Mike Pence at 52/24. Both Ted Cruz (a 40 point deficit to Trump at 62/22) and John Kasich (a 47 point deficit to Trump at 68/21) are evidently weaker potential opponents than 'someone else.'

August 09, 2017

PPP's new North Carolina poll finds strong, bipartisan opposition to cuts the General Assembly has made to the budget of the North Carolina Department of Justice. Only 18% of voters support the 10 million dollars in cuts that have been made, to 60% who say they are opposed to them. This opposition is shared by independents (9/68), Democrats (18/65), and Republicans (26/48) alike. Concern about the cuts is fueled by a sense that they will have the effect of making the state less safe- 59% of voters believe that will be the outcome of cuts to funding for the DOJ, while only 12% say they think the cuts will make the state safer.

A plurality of voters- 46%- think the Republicans in the General Assembly made the cuts just because the Attorney General is a Democrat. Only 21% think they did it because it's good for the state, and 33% aren't sure one way or another. This is one of several issues driving the popularity of the General Assembly- and the Republicans in it in particular- into the ground. Only 18% of voters approve of the job the General Assembly is doing, to 58% who disapprove. While the Democrats in the body aren't popular- a 37/46 favorability rating- they come out far better than the Republicans who just 32% of voters see positively, with 55% viewing them in a negative light.

Democrats have an early 46-40 lead on the generic legislative ballot for next year. That includes a double digit lead among independent voters, at 39/29. One thing that's particularly good news for the party is that enthusiasm is on their side- 57% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election next year, compared to only 47% of Republicans who say that. Among just voters who say they're 'very excited' about turning out in 2018, the generic ballot lead for Democrats more than doubles to 13 points at 52/39.

There continues to be a strong bipartisan consensus in support of nonpartisan redistricting in North Carolina. Overall 56% of voters support it, to just 14% who are opposed. Majorities of independents (63/10), Republicans (55/15), and Democrats (53/17) alike are in favor of shifting to that model for drawing district lines.

Roy Cooper:

Roy Cooper is off to a much better start as Governor than his two immediate predecessors. 48% of voters approve of the job he's doing, to 33% who disapprove. He's on solid ground with independents at 45/26, and his -32 approval with Republicans at 22/54 is actually well ahead of the curve for a politician across party lines in these heavily polarized times.

Cooper's numbers look particularly good when compared to what PPP found for Pat McCrory and Bev Perdue in August of their first terms. Cooper's the only one of the trio who hadn't become unpopular within 7 months of taking office. His net approval is 27 points better than McCrory's was at the same time, and 40 points better than Perdue's was at the same time.

Governor

Approval Rating, August of First Year in Office

Net Approval

Roy Cooper

48/33

+15

Pat McCrory

39/51

-12

Bev Perdue

27/52

-25

Speaking of McCrory, voters say by a 44/37 spread that they think Cooper has been a better Governor than he was. Voters are closely divided in their feelings both about McCrory, and whether he should run again in 2020. 40% of voters see him favorably, to 41% with an unfavorable opinion of him. 41% of voters think he should run again for Governor in 2020, to 44% who think he should sit it out. Notably, among Republican voters McCrory has a 66/15 favorability rating while Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest's is just 29/14.

National Issues:

-Donald Trump is unpopular in North Carolina, although his numbers are at least better than they are nationally. 44% of voters approve of the job he's doing, to 50% who disapprove. Only 37% of voters think Trump has succeeded in his signature promise to 'Make America Great Again,' with 52% saying they believe he has failed on that front. 49% of North Carolinians say they wish they could have Barack Obama back as President, to just 45% who are happier with Trump.

One issue that's not helping his image- or that of Republican Senators- in the state is health care. 47% of North Carolinians now support the Affordable Care Act, to only 38% who opposed to it. Repeal efforts have made it more and more popular. By contrast just 29% of voters say they support the health care repeal bill recently considered in Congress, to 51% who express opposition to that. 55% think the best path forward on health care is to keep the Affordable Care Act and make changes to it as necessary, to just 37% who think the best thing to do is repeal the ACA.

The health care vote could have long term implications for Thom Tillis. He already has weak approval numbers, with just 28% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 45% who disapprove. By a 16 point margin voters say they're less likely to vote in the future for someone who supported the health care repeal bill in Congress- 46% say being on the record in support of that makes them less likely to vote for someone, to only 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for someone. That could be a problem for Tillis in 2020, and more short term for some Republican House members up for reelection next year, especially when the anger over health care is combined with the enthusiasm advantage Democrats are currently enjoying.

July 18, 2017

PPP's newest national poll continues to find that health care is a mine field for the GOP, while most Trump voters are just choosing not to acknowledge the Russia story.

Only 20% of voters support the health care bill that was being considered by Congress until last night, to 57% who are opposed to it. Even among Republicans there's only very narrow support for it- 35% in favor, 34% opposed, and 31% not sure. Democrats (10/72) and independents (17/61) are each strongly opposed to it. 58% of voters say they want Congress to keep the Affordable Care Act in place and make changes to it as necessary, to just 35% who think the best path forward is repealing the ACA and starting over.

Health care could have big electoral implications in 2018. 53% of voters said they were less likely to vote for a member of Congress if they supported the health care bill being considered, to only 21% who said they'd be more likely to support a member who voted yes. One thing that's particularly notable is the division even within the Republican base on that front. Only 36% of GOP voters would be more likely to support a member of Congress if they voted for that health care bill, to 32% who would be less likely to. That suggests bucking the party on health care isn't the kind of thing that's so unpopular it would have much chance of leading to a successful primary challenge from the right.

The current political climate is already looking dicey for Republicans as the 2018 midterms loom. Democrats have a 50/40 lead on the generic Congressional ballot. Much gets made of Donald Trump's unpopularity and certainly it's true voters don't care for him- only 41% approve of the job he's doing to 55% who disapprove. But Trump comes out looking positively popular compared to Paul Ryan (24/57 approval) and Mitch McConnell (18/58). Congress overall has an 11% approval rating, to 75% of voters who disapprove of it. Democrats should have the opportunity next year to turn them into bogeymen much as Republicans have with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in recent years.

Health care is turning a lot more Republican leaning voters against their own party's leadership than Russia is. On Russia related issues we find a certain degree of willful ignorance among Trump voters that can possibly best be summarized by this finding: only 45% of Trump voters believe Donald Trump Jr. had a meeting with Russians about information that might be harmful to Hillary Clinton...even though Trump Jr. admitted it. 32% say the meeting didn't happen and 24% say they're not sure.

That finding is in keeping with the general attitude of Trump voters toward the Russia story which is 'don't know, don't care':

-72% of Trump voters consider the Russia story overall to be 'fake news,' only 14% disagree.

-Only 24% of Trump voters even want an investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia, 64% are opposed to an investigation.

-Even if there was an investigation, and it found that the Trump campaign did collude with Russia to aid his campaign, 77% of his supporters think he should still stay in office to just 16% who believe he should resign.

-Only 26% of Trump voters admit that Russia wanted Trump to win the election, 44% claim Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win, and 31% say they're not sure one way or the other.

-Just 13% of Trump voters believe that members of Trump's campaign team did work with the Russians to help his campaign, to 81% who say they didn't. On a related note only 9% believe that either Donald Trump Jr. or Jared Kushner engaged in illegal activity to help Trump get elected, to 77% who say Kushner didn't and 79% who say Trump Jr. didn't.

None of that is to say Trump's overall position isn't bad. Only 41% of voters approve of the job he's doing, to 55% who disapprove. Just 37% of voters consider Trump to be honest, to 57% who say he isn't. And 52% outright call him a liar, with only 40% disagreeing with that characterization.

Trump does a lot of losing in our poll. Voters wish that either Barack Obama (53/40) or Hillary Clinton (49/42) was President instead of Trump. Trump loses by wide margins in hypothetical matches against Joe Biden (54/39) or Bernie Sanders (52/39) for reelection. Trump loses 12-13% of the folks who voted for him last fall to either Biden or Sanders. Trump also trails in hypothetical contests against Elizabeth Warren (49/42), Cory Booker (45/40), and Kamala Harris (41/40). The one Democrat Trump manages a tie against is Mark Zuckerberg, at 40/40. Zuckerberg is actually not a particularly well known figure nationally- 47% of voters say they have no opinion about him to 24% with a positive one and 29% with a negative one.

June 12, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds a variety of bad news for Donald Trump in the wake of James Comey's testimony to Congress last week. 49% of voters say that they think Trump committed obstruction of justice, to just 41% who don't think he did. Only 37% of voters say they think Trump is honest, to 56% who say he's not. A majority of voters- 53%- come right out and say they consider Trump to be a liar to 41% who disagree with that characterization. And for the second month in a row we find plurality support for impeachment- 47% are in support of it to 43% who are opposed.

Voters say they trust James Comey more than Trump by double digits, 51/39. Comey's image has improved rapidly in the wake of his testimony. Last month he had a -16 net favorability rating at 24/40, but now he's on positive ground at 40/37. That improvement is a product of Clinton voters seeming to have largely forgiven Comey at this point- his favorability with them is 60/13, in contrast to an 18/67 standing with Trump voters. One thing we find little disagreement about is that only 13% of voters think it's the job of the FBI Director to do whatever Donald Trump tells them to do, compared to 77% who say they disagree with that notion. There also continues to be a clear consensus that the reason for Comey's firing was his investigation into Russian involvement in the election- 54% say that drove the firing to 35% who disagree.

We polled Americans on how they feel about a quartet of foreign leaders, and found that all of them have better net favorabilities in the country than its own President does:

Leader

Favorability

Net Favorability

Angela Merkel

+11

36/25

Justin Trudeau

+11

31/20

Emmanuel Macron

+7

25/18

Theresa May

+4

27/23

Donald Trump

-14

40/54

The favorability numbers for the foreign leaders are a little bit of a reality check on how closely Americans pay attention to foreign affairs though. Merkel has just 61% name recognition and it goes down from there to 51% for Trudeau, 50% for May, and 43% for Macron. Clinton voters have favorable opinions of all the foreign leaders with Merkel (57/10 favorability) and Trudeau (53/11) coming out particularly well. Trump voters see all of them with the exception of May in a negative light.

Health care continues to be a political disaster for Republicans. Only 24% of voters support the American Health Care Act to 55% who oppose it. It doesn't even have majority support among GOP voters- 42% support it to 29% who are opposed. Voters prefer the current Affordable Care Act to the alternative of the AHCA by a 51/34 spread, and only 35% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the ACA while 59% think it should be left in place with fixes made to it as necessary.

The health care bill could have major political implications in 2018. By a 24 point margin voters say they're less likely to vote for a member of Congress who supported the American Health Care Act- 48% say they're less likely to vote for someone who favored it, to only 24% who say they're more likely to support such a person.

The present political climate is also having the effect of firing up Democratic voters for 2018. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot overall, 50/40. But among voters who say they're 'very excited' about turning out next year, that lead increases to 18 points at 57/39. That's because 67% of Clinton voters say they're 'very excited' about next year's election, compared to only 57% of Trump voters. Republicans are only more competitive on the generic ballot overall thanks to a 52/32 advantage among those who say they aren't excited about voting next year.

May 16, 2017

PPP's new national poll finds that Republicans are facing significant backlash over the health care bill that's having the effect of firing up Democrats and putting them in position to make major gains in the House next year.

Democrats now have a 49-38 lead overall on the generic Congressional ballot, up from 47-41 a month ago. Even more notable though is that among voters who say they're 'very excited' to turn out in the 2018 election, the Democratic lead balloons to 27 points at 61-34. The outcome of lower turnout midterm elections often hinges on which side is more engaged, and Democrats have the clear advantage at this point on that front- 63% of their voters say they're 'very excited' about voting in next year's election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who say the same.

The American Health Care Act has been a complete disaster politically for Republicans. Only 25% of voters support it, to 52% who are opposed. Even among Republican voters there's only 49% support for the measure, while Democrats (76%) are considerably more unified in their opposition to it. Voters say by a 20 point margin that they're less likely to vote for a member of Congress who supported the AHCA- just 27% say they're more likely to vote for a pro-AHCA candidate, compared to 47% who are less likely to vote for one.

The health care debate has left Congress with a 15% approval rating and 68% of voters disapproving of it. Paul Ryan (25/59 approval) and Mitch McConnell (21/55 approval) are both very unpopular individually as well.

The current health care debate is also stoking new found respect for the Affordable Care Act. By a 53/27 spread, voters say they prefer the current ACA to the new AHCA. And just 29% of voters say they want to repeal the Affordable Care Act at this point, to 64% who would prefer to keep it and make fixes as necessary.

Comey/Russia:

Americans don't like James Comey. Only 24% see him favorably, to 40% who have a negative opinion of him. But they don't like the decision to fire him either. Only 37% support Donald Trump's decision to fire Comey, to 48% who are opposed. Voters aren't buying the officially stated reasoning behind Comey's firing- 54% think the FBI's investigations into Russian involvement in the 2016 election is the reason Comey was fired, to only 34% who say they don't think that's what it was. Something else voters- even Trump voters- are very clear on is that it's not the job of the FBI director to be loyal to the President. Overall only 23% of voters think the FBI director needs to be loyal to the President, to 66% who say that is not their job. This view is held emphatically by Clinton voters (8/87) but also by a plurality of Trump voters (38/48).

We find 62/28 support both for an independent investigation into Russia's involvement in the election generally, and for the appointment of a special prosecutor specifically. We find that an increasingly large percentage of voters think that Russia did want Trump to win the election- 60% now say that Russia was pulling for Trump to only 16% who claim they think Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win. Voters are still pretty evenly divided though when it comes to whether they think Trump's campaign team and Russia directly worked together to try to influence the election- 43% say they think there was collusion between Russia and Trump's aides to 38% who don't think there was.

The stakes for Trump on this issue are high- if it does turn out his campaign coordinated directly with Russia, 54% of voters think he should resign to only 34% who believe he should stay in office. And voters do want to see the bottom of this story gotten to- only 33% consider it to be 'fake news.'

General Attitudes Toward Trump:

Only 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 54% who disapprove. For the first time we find more voters (48%) in support of impeaching Trump than there are (41%) opposed to the idea. Only 43% of voters think Trump is actually going to end up serving his full term as President, while 45% think he won't, and 12% aren't sure one way or the other.

Voters are both having buyer's remorse about the outcome of the 2016 election and wishing they could return to the good old days of 4 months ago. By an 8 point margin, 49/41, they say they wish Hillary Clinton was President instead of Trump. And by a 16 point margin, 55/39, they say they wish Barack Obama was still in office instead of Trump.

One thing hurting Trump is that Americans expect honesty from their President and his aides, and they feel like they're not getting it. Last week Trump tweeted that it was unreasonable to expect his press staff to always tell the truth, but 77% of voters say they do expect the President's Press Secretaries to tell the truth all the time compared to only 14% who say that isn't that expectation. Only 38% of voters say they consider Trump to be honest, to 55% who say they don't think he is. And a majority of voters (51%) outright say they consider Trump to be a liar to 41% who say they disagree with that characterization.

One issue that's not going away is Trump's failure to release his tax returns. 62% of voters continue to think he needs to release them, to only 29% who think it's not necessary for him to. 61% would even support a law requiring candidates for President to release 5 years of tax returns in order to appear on the ballot, with just 28% opposed to such a provision.

When it comes down to it voters don't think Trump has delivered on the core promise of his campaign- just 34% think he has 'Made America Great Again,' while 55% think he has not.

April 20, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds that the Democratic enthusiasm that led to strong finishes in special elections in Georgia and Kansas over the last week is a national phenomenon.

Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what's more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are 'somewhat excited' (48-40) and 'not that excited' (46-31).

One reason for the comparative lack of Republican excitement may be the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump. Only 43% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 50% who disapprove. The core promise of Trump's campaign was to 'Make America Great Again,' but only 35% of voters actually think he's accomplished that goal to 55% who think he hasn't.

Foreign policy has taken on a larger role in the national discussion in recent weeks and Trump's leadership on that front isn't inspiring a ton of confidence. 39% of voters think he will get the United States into World War III during his Presidency, to just 40% of voters who don't think he's going to have that effect. Trump has continued to attack the Obama administration's approach to foreign policy lately, but by a 51/39 spread voters think Obama had a better handle on foreign policy than Trump. And by a 51/43 split, voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President overall.

One finding that may best sum it all up when it comes to how down voters are on Trump: by a 42/40 spread, they have a higher opinion of United Airlines than they do of him.

Other findings from our national poll:

-The strong early numbers for Democrats in the 2018 Congressional picture aren't just a function of Trump's unpopularity. Both Paul Ryan (30/53 approval) and Mitch McConnell (24/48) are very unpopular on the national scene as well. Overall Congress has just an 18% approval rating, with 65% of voters disapproving of it.

-One issue that particularly sunk Ryan's numbers was health care, and we continue to find less and less resistance to just keeping the Affordable Care Act. We find 47% support for it on this poll, but more notable than that we find the level of opposition to it down to only 31%. Even among Republican voters there's now barely a majority- 51%- that expresses opposition to the ACA. Just 30% of voters want to repeal it, compared to 62% who say the best path forward is to keep what works in it and fix what doesn't.

-One thing Trump could do that voters would support is get rid of Steve Bannon. Bannon has only a 21% favorability rating, compared to 50% of voters who see him negatively. Only 26% think Trump should keep Bannon on his staff, to 45% who think he should fire Bannon.

-Another thing Trump could do to help himself is work a little bit harder. Only 36% of voters think the amount of he's spent at Mar-a-Lago as President so far is appropriate, to 49% who say they think it's inappropriate. Voters are picking up on how much golf Trump has played- 48% believe he's played more golf during his first 3 months in office compared to only 28% who think Barack Obama played more at the start of his term. (Trump voters do say 53/20 that they think Obama played more though).

March 30, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds Donald Trump's approval rating falling to its lowest level yet in our polling. Only 40% of voters approve of the job he's doing, to 53% who disapprove.

Health Care:

The upshot of last week's health care debate is that the Affordable Care Act is now the most popular it's ever been in our polling, with 52% of voters approving of it to only 37% who disapprove. By contrast there is only 23% support for the American Health Care Act, with 56% of voters in opposition to it. Asked which of the two plans voters prefer, the Affordable Care Act wins out by 21 points at 49-28. At this point just 32% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the ACA, with 62% saying they'd rather keep it and fix whatever needs to be fixed in it.

Donald Trump blamed the failure of the AHCA last week on Congressional Democrats, but voters aren't buying that. Just 31% think Democrats are responsible for the bill's failure, to 52% who pin the blame on Congressional Republicans. Trump may be losing out to Democrats on this issue, but he's coming out ahead on the health care blame game within his own party. Overall voters blame Paul Ryan more than Trump for the failure of the AHCA, 42/33. But specifically among GOP voters, 54% blame Ryan to only 13% who pin the blame on Trump.

This issue has made Paul Ryan into the most unpopular politician in the country. At the start of the Trump administration he had a 33% approval rating, with 43% of voters disapproving of him. Now his approval has plunged to 21%, with his disapproval spiking all the way up to 61%. Ryan's particularly seen his image crater with Trump voters- what was a 53/23 approval rating with them in mid-January is now negative at 35/41.

Congress as a whole isn't doing too well in the wake of the health care discussion, with its approval rating as a body standing at 11%, with 68% of voters disapproving of it. Mitch McConnell has a 19% approval rating, with 54% of voters disapproving of him but for the first time ever that at least gives him a better net approval rating than Ryan has. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 48-43 at this early point in the cycle.

Russia:

Our new poll gives a clear picture of just how damaging continued revelations about Russia could be to Donald Trump's political standing. As it stands a plurality of voters- 44%- think Trump's campaign team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President. 42% don't think it did, and another 14% are unsure. We find that if evidence comes out that proves conclusively that members of Trump's campaign team worked in association with Russia to help him win the election, 53% of voters think he should resign to only 39% who believe he should continue to serve as President. Already 44% of voters support impeaching Trump to 45% who are opposed to impeachment, and these numbers suggest that more Russia revelations could very well lead to majority support for impeachment.

Voters are taking the issue pretty seriously. 62% support an independent investigation into Russia's involvement with the election, to only 28% who are opposed. That's an outgrowth of 60% of voters believing that Russia wanted Trump to win the election last year, to 22% who think it wanted Hillary Clinton win. (Although among Trump voters, 41% say Russia wanted Clinton to win to only 26% who say it wanted Trump to win.) Just 39% of voters consider the Russia story to be 'fake news,' to 48% who say it's not. And as we've consistently found in our polling both Russia as a whole (13/64 favorability) and Vladimir Putin specifically (9/72 favorability) are very unpopular.

2020:

We took an early look ahead to 2020 and how Trump would match up right now against some hypothetical Democratic opponents for reelection. He trails Joe Biden 54/40, Bernie Sanders 52/41, Elizabeth Warren 48/43, Al Franken 46/41, and Cory Booker 45/42 in head to head match ups. Biden (56/33 favorability) and Sanders (53/36) are among the most popular political figures in the country. Voters are more divided on Warren (42/39) and Franken (34/34). Booker is not as well known nationally as the rest of this group yet, coming in at 27/24.

March 15, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds that there is very little support for the American Health Care Act. Only 24% of voters support it, to 49% who are opposed. Even among Republican voters only 37% are in favor of the proposal to 22% who are against it, and 41% who aren't sure one way or another. Democrats (15/71) and independents (22/49) are more unified in their opposition to the bill than Republicans are in favor of it.

The Affordable Care Act continues to post some of the best numbers it's ever seen, with 47% of voters in favor of it to 39% who are opposed. When voters are asked whether they'd have rather have the Affordable Care Act or the American Health Care Act in place, the Affordable Care Act wins by 20 points at 49/29. Just 32% of voters think the best path forward with the Affordable Care Act is to repeal it and start over, while 63% think it would be better to keep what works in it and fix what doesn't.

When Jason Chaffetz said people might have to choose between an iPhone and having health insurance, he was actually speaking for a majority of the party base. 57% of Trump voters think that's a choice people should have to make, to only 29% who think it's not. But virtually no one would actually pick an iPhone over health care if that was the pick they were presented with- only 5% would go with the phone, to 85% who would choose health care.

63% of voters now support an independent investigation into Russia's involvement in the 2016 Presidential election, to only 28% opposed to one. On a related note, 60% of voters think Russia wanted Donald Trump to win last year's election to only 16% who think it wanted Clinton to win. Among Trump voters though, 30% think Russia wanted Clinton to win the election to 28% who grant it wanted Trump to be victorious.

In the wake of revelations about Jeff Sessions' contacts with the Russians during the campaign, a plurality of voters want his time as Attorney General to come to an end. Just 38% think he should continue to serve in the position, while 44% think he should not. Sessions is unpopular overall, with only 30% of voters rating him favorably to 43% who have a negative opinion of him.

Overall voters continue to have a very dim view of Russia (13/65 favorability rating) and Vladimir Putin (10/72 favorability.) Even among Trump voters those figures come in at 19/53 and 15/58 respectively.

Only 27% of voters believe Trump's accusations that Barack Obama tapped his phone during the election last year, to 56% who don't believe them. Trump's voters are going along with him on it though- 57% of them think Trump was tapped to only 17% who don't believe he was.

With Trump and Obama making conflicting claims about the wire tapping we asked voters who they trust more, and Obama wins out on that question 54-39. And in general voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President, 52/43.

February 24, 2017

PPP's newest national poll finds that Donald Trump is losing all of his fights with the media- and voters really think he needs to reduce his cable news consumption.

62% of voters nationally think Trump should keep his cable watching to less than an hour a day, and 82% think he needs to keep it under 2 hours a day. Just 6% of voters in the country think it's a good idea for Trump to spend more than 2 hours a day watching cable news.

Last week Trump declared that the news media was the 'enemy of the American people' but we find that only 35% of voters believe that, to 53% who say that isn't the case. By a 48/44 spread they say it is actually Trump who is the greater threat to the American people than the media. We asked voters who they thought had more credibility between Trump and each of the outlets he singled out for attack last week, and Trump loses out to every one of them by double digits:

Who do you think has more credibility: Donald Trump or…

Winner

New York Times

New York Times, 52/40

NBC

NBC, 51/40

CNN

CNN, 51/41

ABC

ABC, 51/41

CBS

CBS, 51/41

We also in general find that voters find the media outlets Trump considers hostile to him credible, while it finds the outlets more friendly to him less credible.

Outlet

Seen as Credible/Not Credible

Net Credibility

CBS

56/31

+25

ABC

56/34

+22

NBC

54/33

+21

New York Times

53/34

+19

CNN

52/37

+15

Fox News

46/40

+6

Daily Caller

6/37

-31

Info Wars

7/41

-34

Breitbart

12/48

-36

All 5 of the outlets Trump singled out for attack last week are seen as credible by majorities of the public. Out of the Trump friendly outlets only Fox News comes out seen as more credible than not, but it is still seen as less credible than all the mainstream outlets Trump targeted in his media attack tweet last week. Meanwhile Daily Caller, Info Wars, and Breitbart clearly still just appeal to fringes of the population even with Trump in the White House- even within his base only 6-20% of voters consider each of those sources to be credible.

Other notes from our newest poll on the Trump Presidency:

-For the first time ever in our polling we now find an outright majority of Americans in favor of the Affordable Care Act- 50% support it to only 38% who are opposed. Only 33% of voters think the best path forward on the ACA is outright repeal, while 61% think it should be kept with whatever needs to be fixed in it being fixed.

-By a 58/29 spread, voters want an independent investigation into Russia's involvement in the 2016 election and its ties to Michael Flynn. Russia (12/61 favorability) and Vladimir Putin (8/73 favorability) continue to be extremely unpopular with Americans, and they want the government to get to the bottom of their interference in our affairs.

February 10, 2017

PPP's new national poll finds that Donald Trump's popularity as President has declined precipitously just over the last two weeks. On our first poll of his Presidency voters were evenly divided on Trump, with 44% approving of him and 44% also disapproving. Now his approval rating is 43%, while his disapproval has gone all the way up to 53%. If voters could choose they'd rather have both Barack Obama (52/44) or Hillary Clinton (49/45) instead of Trump.

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

Here are the reasons things are going bad for Trump:

-Voters think he's over reaching to make a country safe...that they already consider to be safe. 66% of Americans consider the United States to be a safe country, to only 23% who consider it unsafe. Perhaps as an outgrowth of that sentiment only 45% of voters support Trump's Executive Order on immigration, to 49% who are opposed to it. Among those who do support it you have to wonder how well thought out their position is- by a 51/23 margin Trump voters say that the Bowling Green Massacre shows why Trump's immigration policy is needed.

By a 48/43 spread, voters do think that the intent of the Executive Order is to be a Muslim ban. And just 22% support a Muslim ban, to 65% who are opposed. The order has also increasingly raised issues about Trump's competence in voters' eyes- only 27% think the Executive Order was well executed, to 66% who think it was poorly executed. The spread on that question was 39/55 when we asked last week.

Another aspect of voters already feeling safe is that they don't want to pay for the wall with Mexico. Just 32% support a 20% tax on items imported to the United States from Mexico, to 55% who are opposed to that concept. And in general only 37% of voters want the wall if US taxpayers have to front the cost for it, to 56% who are against that.

-Voters are concerned by the implications of Trump's fight with the Judiciary. 53% of voters say they trust Judges more to make the right decisions for the United States, to only 38% who trust Trump more. And only 25% of voters think Trump should be able to overturn decisions by Judges that he disagrees with, to 64% who don't think he should be able to do that. Trump voters have evidently had enough of the Constitution and those pesky checks and balances though- 51% of them think he should personally be able to overturn decisions he doesn't agree with, to only 33% who dissent.

-Voters don't like the people Trump has surrounded himself with. Betsy DeVos may have been confirmed this week, but she made a horrible impression on the public. Only 27% of voters see her positively to 49% with a negative opinion of her. Clinton voters are almost unanimous in their distaste for her (5/83 favorability), while she doesn't generate nearly an equivalent amount of enthusiasm from Trump voters (53/12 favorability.) Other people close to Trump have come off poorly as well- Steve Bannon has a 22/45 favorability rating, Kellyanne Conway's is 34/47, and Sean Spicer's is 32/41.

-Voters continue to have a lot of basic transparency concerns when it comes to Trump. 62% think he needs to fully divest himself from his business interests, to only 27% who don't think it's necessary for him to do that. And 58% want him to release his tax returns, to just 31% who don't think he needs to. In fact by a 53/32 spread, voters would support a law requiring that candidates for President release 5 years of their tax returns in order to appear on the ballot.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2017

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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Dean DebnamPublic Policy Polling CEO

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