April 23, 2012

Dalton erases Etheridge's lead

The momentum in the North Carolina Democratic primary for Governor has swung strongly in Walter Dalton's direction over the last month and the race is now basically a tie with him at 26% to 25% for Bob Etheridge, 5% for Bill Faison, 4% for Bruce Blackmon and Gary Dunn, and 2% for Gardenia Henley.

Etheridge led by 11 points a month ago. Since then he's dropped a point while Dalton has gained 11. Dalton's name recognition is on the rise since he began running television ads, and Democrats are responding positively to him. 33% have a favorable opinion to only 14% with a negative one. That 33% favorability rating is up 14 points from our last poll. Etheridge has good numbers too with 37% seeing him favorably to 19% with a negative opinion, but he's up only 6 points from his 31% rating on the last poll.

Geography continues to be the biggest divider in the race. Dalton is up by 24 points in metro Charlotte, 17 in the Triad, and 9 in the Mountains. Etheridge is up 17 points in northeastern North Carolina, and 12 points in the Triangle and southeastern North Carolina. Although he still trails, Dalton has gained a lot of ground in the Triangle where he'd previously trailed by 42 points.

Linda Coleman continues to lead by double digits in the race for Lieutenant Governor, 28-16 over Eric Mansfield. The race for Labor Commissioner is tied with Ty Richardson and John Brooks at 18%, and Marlowe Foster at 10%. Janet Cowell has a solid lead in the Treasurer's race at 38-11.

Despite David Parker's claims last week that he still has the party base behind him, we find that 45% of Democrats think he should resign as chair to only 19% who believe he should continue on. 36% express no opinion one way or the other about the intra party issue. Parker clearly doesn't have much support to continue on in his role.

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Warning...I am a registered Democrat; my husband is a Republican. He was just called by your organization and once he thought you were "pro Obama," he said he began giving "phoney responses." So much for polling.

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