Will Pennsylvania's political cycle be broken this year?

Although the Democratic race for U.S. Senate took most of the attention in Pennsylvania’s recent primary, attention also must be paid to the fact that this is a gubernatorial election year.

Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato will again test patterns that have dominated Pennsylvania politics for more than a half-century.

Presidential elections, political parties and incumbencies all relate to what amounts to the “bi-cycle of Pennsylvania politics.”

Some claim there is simply a “flip-flop” between parties every eight years, but it’s more complex than that.

With one exception, Dick Thornburgh in 1982, every gubernatorial election since 1938 that follows the selection of a president has resulted in a victory for the defeated party in the presidential contest. Franklin D. Roosevelt began this cycle in 1936.

Roosevelt’s unprecedented tenure in the Oval Office saw Republicans Arthur James, Edward Martin and James Duff become governors succeeded by John Fine after Harry Truman’s election.

Democrats George Leader and David Lawrence started another cycle after Dwight Eisenhower’s victories, the eight-year party reign. Republicans Bill Scranton and Raymond Shafer followed John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, respectively, while Democrat Milton Shapp became governor subsequent to Richard Nixon’s triumphs.

After Republican Thornburgh interrupted the presidential cycle in 1982, the elder Bob Casey put it back on track following Ronald Reagan’s re-election, and this was repeated after George H.W. Bush in 1988.

By that time, the governorship was well into another cycle of the tandem that began with the election of Leader in 1954, only the second successful Democrat in the 20th century up to that time. (George Earle was the other in 1934.)

The eight-year cycle that began with Leader and Dave Lawrence was followed by Republicans Scranton and Shafer.

In 1968, a constitutional change enabled Pennsylvania’s governor to serve a second term. Since Shapp’s victory in 1970, every governor has been elected to a second term. Our current governor, Ed Rendell, is the latest beneficiary of that trend.

Yes, Pennsylvania politics has changed since the mid-20th century. Before that we were largely a one-party rule state: Democrats ruled before the Civil War and Republicans afterward.

It all changed around 1950 when Democrats Joe Clark and Dick Dilworth led a reform wave in Philadelphia city politics, opening the way for Leader to win the governorship. Since then, state politics haven’t been the same.

I think the state is more of a battleground than a “swing state.”

George Wolf

The campaigns for governor, U.S. Senate, the control of the Legislature and party registration figures categorize us as a “swing state” even though Democrats control all of the leadership roles except the state Senate.

In the legislative races, gerrymandering has played a role and more change could come with the upcoming reapportionment.

If the expect bi-cycle continues this year in Pennsylvania, it will be a referendum on Obama and his economic program.

Interestingly, the anti-incumbency movement that is sweeping the nation will not be a factor in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race. Both Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett are running as political “outsiders.”

Party registration could be a significant factor. Democrats enjoy a registration majority of about 1.2 million. They probably have reached their peak because party registration tends to follow the party in power toward the end of its eight-year reign.

I wonder if we will ever see another Pennsylvanian on the national ticket? The state’s traditional conservatism is undoubtedly a factor, although there are signs of change. Pennsylvanians cast fewer than 600,000 votes, just 44 percent, for McCain in 2008’s historic election.

Is the old tandem good enough to see us through another election or will political technology take us into a new era? That is the question, but the only certainty in Pennsylvania politics is that things change.

George D. Wolf is former dean of the faculty and current emeritus professor of American Studies at Penn State Harrisburg.