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Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

This is a little different than the typical "sky is falling" thread regarding the state of the Pacer franchise and a possible relocation.

What I want to consider is that Mel and Herb won't own the team forever, and that apparently none of the other family members want to take over the responsiblity. Therefore, it is a near certainty that the team will be sold "at some point".

I won't even ask you to identify potential buyers, that doesn't matter. What I will challenge you to do is to name a possible city for relocation that can support an NBA team. I contend that it is much more difficult to come up with a viable relocation city than what you might think.

Among NBA owners, it is common that the owner or group of owners have substantial business interests in the city where their teams are located, or are residents of the city themselves.

So, in order for the team to be relocated, that may require that a pairing of a willing buyer and his city be found to assume ownership. And, in my opinion, there simply aren't very many viable city/metropolitan areas that can support an NBA franchise.

To relocate an NBA team to a city with the expectation of long-term success, I believe it would require either a very substantial population base, or at the very least, a city with lesser population that does not already have an NFL team and/or a major league baseball team.

Oklahoma City has 2/3 the population as the Indy area. Even without other pro teams, just how long do you expect them to hold a fan base of nearly 19,000? Once the novelty and the "honeymoon" are over, give them a couple of losing seasons and let's see how many fans are still attending and how viable the franchise is. If they can continue to connect with the city and establish some traditions, then maybe they have a chance. Otherwise, probably not.

Anyway, many are fearful of a relocation. All I'm asking is if you really think that is likely, where do you think the Pacers could be relocated? Hopefully, in going through this exercise, perhaps we can all be a little calmer about the current news regarding renegotiation between the Simons and CIB.

I've listed the 50 largest municipal areas by population to help in your selection. Municipal areas (or near by areas) with NBA teams appear in bold print.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Seattle has needed a new arena for more than a decade. Stern allowed the Sonics to leave because repeated funding efforts failed.

Next idea? Because Seattle is not likely to be getting another team any time soon.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Seattle has needed a new arena for more than a decade. Stern allowed the Sonics to leave because repeated funding efforts failed.

Next idea? Because Seattle is not likely to be getting another team any time soon.

seattle will have another nba team, there is no question about that. seattle is a hotbed for basketball, had plenty of fan support for the sonics, and has supported their other sports franchises fairly well. stern can ***** about a new arena all he wants, but that has more to do with the owner/mayor than it does the fans and how many tickets were being sold.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Agreed about Mexico city. No chance. More likely is a Latin League affiliated with the NBA.

Judging market viability by population is misguided. Better to look at incomes in the area. Seattle isn't gigantic, but there's a lot of money there. Same goes for San Diego. Somebody has to pay for those luxury boxes.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

You're putting your finger on one big reason the Simons may be so nervous, as well as the rest of the owners.

What happens if the Simons put the Pacers up for sale, and can't sell them? Or, at least, can't get anywhere near Forbes' $300 million figure?

I can't find anything (I get a weird Yahoo error on Firefox, periodically), but aren't the Griz still for sale? From what I can gather, Heisley was going to sell, had a deal with a group that included Christian Laettner, but that deal fell through. Since then, he's taken the team off the market, but has still expressed interest in local ownership.

I do not have access to any more info than was available in the Forbes article from December that I linked in the other thread. However, intuitively, I believe the Simons have sustained operating and cash losses during their tenure as owners of the Pacers. This is offset by the increasing value of the asset (the team), theoretically, but that can only be realized by the sale of the team. Think about the last time you had your house appraised. Do you believe you can get that? My last re-fi appraised my house at $20k higher than what a nearly identical house right next to it sold for within six weeks of the appraisal. Think about the appraisal you got when you bought your house? I paid a good 10% less than the appraisal value.

I can't put a probability on it, but I believe that contraction (the folding of franchises) is a possibility in the future in the NBA, unless there is a serious change in the cost structure. The salaries are too disconnected from the gate receipts. This is due to the TV contract, but the NBA, unlike the NFL, has iffy ratings. In March, 2008, the NBA reported a 20% rise in ratings, to 2.5 on ABC and 1.1 on ESPN and TNT cable outlets. Compare this to the NFL, while the NFL receive shares 5 times that for regular season game, ten times that for a playoff game, and 15 times that for the Superbowl.

The NBA, IMO, is overvalued and overstretched right now. I am not convinced that 30 franchises is the best long term business model.

BTW...the boogeyman for cities with struggling franchises in the NBA has been Las Vegas for a while. However, their viability is taking a serious hit in the current economic environment. Their core industry, gambling and entertainment, is a luxury item that fewer and fewer can afford. Meanwhile, their housing market appears to have had both one of the biggest bubbles and the biggest bursts during this slide.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

I seriously doubt they would move to Mexico city - I have been reading things about the drug war being completely out of control and the gov't down there losing their authority - way, way, way too much turmoil down there.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Kansas City. They built the Sprint Center for the sole purpose of bringing a NBA or NHL team to the city. It's a big, nice stadium that has no real main tenant. They support an NFL and MLB team. They're the most likely.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

They actually should move to Raleigh, NC...its clean very nice and tons of basketball that already goes on here..duke, wake forest, north carolina Univ., carolina hurricanes and NC State. they would fit right in and fans would definately be please to see a NBA team here..and the city is one of the more growing cities in America.........Come here Pacers!!!

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Who could afford NBA tickets in Mexico City, 99% of the populace makes $3 a day. The players would need armed escorts to go anywhere. Kansas City is it.

"He wanted to get to that money time. Time when the hardware was on the table. That's when Roger was going to show up. So all we needed to do was stay close"Darnell Hillman (Speaking of former teammate Roger Brown)

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Sell them to the guy who used to own the St. Louis Spirits who keeps
making millions off the TV revenue from the former ABA teams.

As part of the deal, the Spurs, Nets, and Nuggets finally get let off the hook
for TV revenues they must pay this guy.

Would be bad for Indy, but sadly might be good for the NBA as a whole.

Yeah, I listed them earlier, but this keeps coming to mind. When the Grizzles were moving they looked at St. Louis and the ownership group said something along the lines of the city is laughable as a possible NBA city.

Re: Worried About a Pacer Relocation? Tell Me Where...

Cut and pasted this from Word, and don't really know what's wrong with all the control characters. Sorry for the strange look.

Mexico City.

Wow. I couldn’t see another Canadian city entering the mix, but I will admit that I had not considered a move south. Good thinking… and definitely outside the box. I do see logistics and security problems with Mexico, but the NBA might consider it worthy of a test with exhibition games for example. If the exhibitions were pulled off without problems, perhaps it would be considered. But a viable option until proven otherwise.

The city that immediately came to mind for me was Las Vegas. But I’m not certain that Stern would want a team in Vegas with it being the gambling capital of the world.Kansas City and Sffice:smarttags" />lace w:st="on">Las Vegaslace>. But I’m not certain that Stern would want a team in Vegas with it being the gambling capital of the world.

Kansas City and lace w:st="on">St. Louislace> are possibilities, but both have been unable to sustain teams in previous attempts. Cincy is also a heavy baseball / football city. I don’t even know about hockey teams in these cities because I don’t follow hockey, but can these cities also support an additional major league franchise?

Louisville is definitely a basketball crazy city, but is very, very heavily geared towards the college game with UK and -Louisville- fielding great teams in most years. Relocation to Louisville might help appease Pacer fans; at least it would be within easy driving distance.

The bottom line is that as we sit here today, I’m not worried in the least about relocation, but I’ve long been on board with Count’s position on contraction.

If one owns a nice home, and loses a job or gets into cash flow problems, it is sometimes possible to get a reverse mortgage through your bank in order to maintain your lifestyle. The bank owns your home, but at least you will enjoy your home until its equity runs out.

Unfortunately, this is not possible for $300M assets. You get into cash flow problems or heavy losses and want out from under the liability, you either sell the asset, even if at a fraction of its value, or you make some agreement to close your doors and liquidate your assets. I think this potential is at least equally likely as the team being relocated. The NBA and team owners would probably agree on a buyout on the team and a dispersal of its players, with the buyout being at a fraction of its worth on paper.

I really don’t think the Simons walk away from their asset and I really don’t think that a potential buyer / relocation city will be found. I believe that the best alternative for the Simons is for an agreement to be reached with Indy. And, that is why both the Simons and Indy will jump through hoops to come to an agreement. At least for now, it is mutually beneficial to both parties. Indy has a relatively new arena that needs a team to help make the arena viable, and the Simons probably won’t find any takers for their asset.