It's 1:30 in the East. I'd had a long day, so I'm signing off. I will resume analysis tomorrow morning. Thanks for tuning in and for being patient. We wound up the evening with all of the big questions answered, and most of the smaller ones, too.

Exit Polls out of CA and WA suggest strong showings for Jerry Brown for CA Gov, Barbara Boxer for CA US Sen and Patty Murray for WA US Senate. A win by Boxer and Murray would make a GOP take over of the US Senate virtually impossible. Stay tuned.

As many Democratic held seats change hands in the US House, a surprising number of US Senate races remain competitive for Democrats: races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois remain too close to call. Republican candidates were in the lead in all of these races in pre-election polling for these states. This may could be a long evening.

A problem for Democrats in the House--and potentially for the President's reelection--is not the enthusiasm of GOP voters (which was high). The bigger problem is the dramatic shift of Independent voters, who gave Obama a decisive edge in 2008. This year, according to Exit Polls, Independent voters broke for Republican House candidates by a widely margin: 55% to 40% for the Democrats, a figure in line with the 1994 midterms, in which Republicans made substantial gains. The Democrats will need to win these voters back in order to be competitive in 2012.

Early numbers and exit poll analysis suggest a substantial GOP pick up in the US House--between 55 and 60 seats now possible, if not likely. It now appears almost certain that the Democrats will loose control of the House.

Democrat Perriello looses to Republican Hurt in Virginia US House race. Another key GOP pick up, another sign of impending Republican take over. US Senate remains in play, but Democrats may soon have their majority locked up.

One interesting tidbit from national Exit Polls: voters seem to dislike Republicans as much as Democrats in congress. Yet, with the Democrats controlling both houses--and the presidency--they are the party perceived by voters as "in power." Thus, anti-incumbent mood could hurt Democrats far more than Republicans.

Early analysis in the Kentucky US Senate race suggest that Republican candidate, and Tea Party favorite, Rand Paul is doing well in his race against Democrat Jack Conway. This is a key race for the GOP. Without Kentucky they have no hope of taking back the Senate. At this point, it looks like they'll meet this threshold, perhaps handily.

Preliminary data is starting to trickle in via national exit polls. Three observation:

[1] President Obama's approval number with today's voters is 45%.

[2] The vast majority of respondents--80%--are concerned about the future of the nation's economy.

[3] Approximately 40% of voters today say they are Tea Party sympathizers.

These numbers may bode poorly for the Democrats. But further analysis of the raw data reported by AP may be necessary to make sure these numbers are accurate. Item 3 should be of greatest concern for Democrats, suggesting a sharp conservative, anti-Washington tilt to the electorate. Right now, these numbers suggest a strong showing for the GOP.

I will now begin blogging about Election 2010, analyzing the results as the come in. Two things: BE PATIENT. Substantive results may not start rolling in until well after 8:00 PM, EST. Unless a race is a blowout, it will not be called solely on Exit Poll data. Thus, a substantial portion of the ACTUAL vote must come in before many races--particularly competitive ones--can be called.

Democratic prospects to retaining the U.S. Senate may have improved, based on the findings of a poll in a key state: Kentucky. The latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll reports that an earlier +15% lead for Republican (and Tea Party favorite) Rand Paul has nearly evaporated. He now leads Democrat Jack Conway by +2%, 49% to 47% with 4% still undecided. Stay tuned to see if other polls replicate this result.

The political fortunes of one Democratic governor--Ted Strickland of Ohio--appears to reversing for the better. Three new polls show him within striking distance of his GOP opponent, John Kasich: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the race virtually tied, with Kasich leading Strick among likely voters, 47% to 46% (the Republican held a +9% advantage in August). A new Fox News poll also shows a tight race, with leading by a scant +2%--45% to 43%. And a just released New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kasich with a 43% to 42% lead. Stay tuned.

According to a new poll, the Democrat has fallen even further behind in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio:a Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters finds Republican Rob Portman with a substantial +15% over Democrat Lee Fisher, 55% to 40%.

Despite the write-in campaign of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination to Tea Party maverick Joe Miller, Millers holds a substantial lead in a just released Rasmussen survey in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. The poll shows Miller leading with 42%,
followed by Murkowski at 27% and Democrat Scott McAdams (D) at 25%.

A Fox News poll in Delaware reports that Democrat Chris Coons holds a substantial +15% lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 54% to 39%. Another poll, from CNN/Time/Opinion Research, reports a similar result, with Coons leading O'Donnell by +16%, 55% to 39%.

A Times Leader poll in Pennsylvania reports that Republican Pat Toomey holds a modest lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 40% to 36%. With 24% undecided, PollTrack continues to raye the race too-close=to-call.

A SurveyUSA poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate race reports that Republican candidate Nathan Deal holds a considerable lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger and former Gov. Roy Barnes, 49% to 38%, with
Libertarian candidate John Monds at 9%. Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll finds former Barnes tied with Deal in the race for governor, 42% to 42%.

A new Elway Poll in Washington state reports that incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds an +8% lead over GOP challenger Dino Rossi, 50% to 41%. PollTrack notes that Murrary hovers at the all-important 50% mark.

Despite small divergences in the polling of the Nevada U.S. Senate race, it looks like the race is virtually tied at this point. A Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the Democratic incumbent Harry Reid holds a narrow lead among likely voters over Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 44%; a new Rasmussen survey has the race tied at 48%; and a Fox News poll reports a narrow lead for Angle, at 45% to 44%.

With two recent polls showing considerable tightening in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race--Democrat Joe Manchin now holds an aggregate +5.5% lead over GOP challenger, John Raese, 49% to 43.5%--PollTrack moves the race from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in the Ohio U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Rob Portman has a +7% lead among likely
voters over Lee Fisher, 45% to 38%. A Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Portman leads Fisher by a whopping 13 points, 50% to 37%.

A Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead over either of his Republican
rivals for governor: He bests Republican Rick Lazio, 57% to
25% and tops Carl Paladino, 60% to 23%.

A just released Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand holds a huge lead over each of her three possible Republican challengers for U.S. Senate: she tops Bruce Blakeman, 44% to 26%, leads David Malpass, 45% to 24%, and is ahead of Joseph DioGuardi, 43% to 28%.

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.

According to a new Missouri State University Poll, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan has drawn to a virtual tie, with the Blunt at 49% and the Democrat at 48%.PollTrack's aggregate still suggests a Republican advantage.

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid holds a tiny lead over Republican challenger and Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

It looks like the governorship in Michigan is headed for a GOP take over. A new EPIC/MRA poll in the state reports that Republican Rick Snyderholds a commanding lead over Democrat Virg Bernero in the race for governor, 51% to 29%.

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll--which is in sync with other recently released polls in the state--incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln is way behind in her reelection bid. The
latest poll reports that Republican
Congressman John Boozman leads Lincoln by a whopping +38%, 65% to 27%.

Recent polls have been showing a tight reelection race for Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray in Washington state. A new SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that Republican Dino Rossi leads Murray by a larger +7% margin, 52% to 45%.

A new Braun Reseach poll in Kentucky reports that Democrat Jack Conway virtually tied with Republican Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate race. Conway leads Paul by a statistically insignificant margin, 41.7% to 41.2%.

The big question hanging over Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid for US Senate in Florida concerns the relative enthusiasm of voters: Will the strong enthusiasm polls are picking up among GOP voters ultimately help Republican Marc Rubio in November? A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll spots "a potentially major advantage for Rubio . . . that three-quarters of Republicans said they
were certain to go the polls, while less than half of Democrats said
they were a sure bet. The stronger motivation among Republican voters
reflects polls nationwide and has boosted the party's hopes of taking
back Congress in November."

A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll in Florida reports that independent candidate--and incumbent Republican Governor--Charlie Crist holds a tiny lead afainst Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, 32% to 30%, with Democrat Jeff Greene well behind at
19%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek secures the Democratic nomination, Crist's lead widens to +4%, beating Rubio 33% to 29%, while Meek gets 17%.

Interestingly, Crist's job approval ratings--as Florida Governor-- "have dropped to an
all-time low for him -- 44% -- and represent the lowest posted by a
Florida governor in 16 years," according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado suggests that Democrat John Hickenlooper holds a strong lead over his Republican challenger, Dan Maes in the race for governor, 50% to 38%. The prospect of a likely third party rung by Tom Tancredo improves the Democrat's standing even more: Hickenlooper's
lead grows to +25%, with Hickenlooper at 48%, followed by Tancredo
at 23% and Maes at 22%.

A just released Brown University poll reports that Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator and independent candidate Lincoln Chafee are
statistically tied in the race for governor. The Democrat holds a slight lead in this very Democratic state with 28%, followed by Chaffee at 27%, and Republican John Robitaille at 8%.

A Braun Research poll in Kentucky reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul now holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 31%. A large number of respondents remain undecided.

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports a very close three-way race for governor between Democrat Alex
Sink, and either potential Republican candidate, Rick Scott or Bill
McCollum, and independent candidate Bud Chiles. Scott leads the pack at 29%, followed by Sink at 27% and Chiles 14%; McCollum would lead with 27%, followed by Sink at 26%, and Chiles at 14%.

Another poll suggests that independent Charlie Crist--currently incumbent Republican governor--may have the lead in the state's race for U.S. Senator. The just released Florida Poll reports that Crist holds a significant +11% lead in the three-way race: He now has the support of 41%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 12%. If Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, Crist wins, but by a smaller margin: in that scenario, he gets 37% to Rubio's 29% and Greene's 16%.
Earlier in the week, a Quinnipiac poll reported that Crist was leading, but by a smaller margin. In that poll, he garnered 37%, followed by Rubio at 32% and Greene at 17%.

One new poll in Nevada suggests that Republican Sharon Angle's downward spiral may have stopped in the race for U.S. Senate. The survey, by Mason-Dixon, shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid and challenger Angle are nearly tied. Reid tops Angle among likely voters by a scant 1%, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, he held a more significant +7% lead.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a
69% approval rating. He beats either possible Republican gubernatorial challengers by wide margins: Cuomo is ahead of Republican by a whopping +30%, 56% to 26%, and bests Carl Paladino by the same margin, 55% to 25%.

In yet another sign of a potentially close race in Maryland, a newGonzales Research poll Incumbent Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with a tiny lead over former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in a rematch of their race for governor
four years ago, 45% to 42%.

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has improved her standing against Republican challenger Carly
Fiorina. Boxer now leads by +7%, 49% to 40%, up from her +3% edge two months ago. PPP writers: "As independents have grown to hold a more unfavorable
opinion of Fiorina their loyalties in the race have shifted toward
Boxer. The incumbent has a 48% to 38% lead with them now, flipping the
10 point deficit she faced to Fiorina at 42% to 32% back in May."

In a vital test of Tea Party strength, the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky now appears to be too-close-to-call. A just released Braun Research poll reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by a scant +3%, 41% to 38%.

A new Rasmussen survey in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic governor Joe Manchin is way ahead of possible
Republican challenger John Raese in the special election for U.S. Senate, 51%
to 35%.

A just released St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll in in the Missouri U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt holds a +6% lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan, in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 42%.The Democrat predictably leads in the state's large urban centers, St. Louis and Kansas City areas; Blunt leads every other region of the
state by a wide margin. While PollTrack continues to rate the race too-close-to-close, it appears to be trending slightly Republican (like the state itself in recent years).

A Magellan
Strategies poll in Wisconsin reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is in a tough fight for his political future. Feingold holds a
slim, +2% lead over challenger Republican Ron Johnson, 45% to 43%.

Can incumbent Democrat US Senator Harry Reid survive his low approval ratings and win reelection in Nevada? Another poll suggests that he is gaining on his Republican challenger, and Tea Party favorite, Sharon Angle. A new Public
Policy Polling survey in Nevada reports that Reid edges
challenger Sharron Angle by +2%, 48% to 46%. This is the second poll to report a Democratic lead.

A new Las
Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry
Reid has moved into the lead, opening a lead over Republican challenger Sharron Angle,
44% to 37%. It appears that Reid's strategy of painting Angle, a Tea Party favorite as too extreme has paid off.

A new SurveyUSA
poll in California reports that Republican candidate Carly Fiorina holds a statistically insignificant +2% lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in
the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Conversely, a new Rasmussen
survey has Democrat Boxer leading Fiorina by +7% among likely voters, 49% to
42%.

The race for US Senate in Illinois remains too-close-to-call. A new Rasmussen
survey in Illinois reports that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias holds a scant (and statistically insignificant) +1% lead over Republican Rep. Mark
Kirk, 40% to 39%.

In what amounts to another incumbent in trouble with voters, a new Magellan
Strategies survey in Maryland reports that former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich holds a slim +3% lead over Democratic incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley in their re-match for
governor, 46% to 43%. Another poll by Public
Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds Democrat O'Malley with a small lead over Ehrlich, 45% to 42%.

A newly released Rasmussen
survey reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin hold a significant lead in the special election to be held later this year in West Virginia to fill the late
Sen. Robert Byrd's seat. Manchin leads Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, 53% to 39%, and crushes the Republican Secretary, State Betty Ireland, 65% to 26%.

According to a new Field Poll, "Democratic
Senator Barbara Boxer's edge over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina
has dwindled to 3 points as she seeks re-election in November, with more
Californians now holding an unfavorable view of the three-term senator . . . Boxer, who once held a 30-point
lead over Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a political
novice, is now ahead by a margin of only 47 percent to 44 percent, the
Field Poll found."

One alarming finding for the incumbent Democratic Senator: "The Field Poll found that since January more
Californians have become disgruntled with Boxer, with 52 percent of
likely voters holding an unfavorable view of her, compared with just 41
percent who regard her favorably. Boxer's
ratings have dropped to some of the lowest levels of her 18-year career
in the Senate, with only 42 percent of registered voters approving of
her job performance and 43 percent disapproving."

In the race for Ohio Governor, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey reports that Republican John Kasich holds a +7% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted
Strickland, 47% to 40%. 3% of likely voters prefer another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

According to new Reuters/Ipsos
poll in California, the Democrat has a slight edge in the race for Governor. The survey reports that Democrat Jerry Brown holds a +6% lead over Republican Meg Whitman, 45% to
39%.

A Public
Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Charles Grassley can breath a little easier in his reelection bid: the poll has him leading
his hypothetical Democratic opponents by +26 to +30%.

A Quinnipiac survey in Ohio reports a small lead for incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over Republican challenger John
Kasich, 43% to 38%. Another, contradictory, poll by Public
Policy Polling survey shows Kasich with a small lead, 43% to 41%.

After demonstrating considerable strength in his reelection race, incumbent North Carolina U.S. Senator Richard Burr now finds himself in a virtual tied with his Democratic challenger, Elaine
Marshall, according to a new Rasmussen
poll Burr leads Marshall by just one point, 44% to 43%. A SurveyUSA
poll, on the other hand, shows Burr with a comfortable +10% lead over Marshall, 50% to 40%. PollTrack continues to give the edge to Burr.

A recently released Magellan
Strategies poll in Arizona reports that in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, incumbent John McCain holds a wide lead of +23% over challenger J.D. Hayworth, 52% to 29%.Significantly, McCain is over the 50% mark, another sign of his strength despite a challenge from his right flank.

A Sooner
Poll in Oklahoma reports that Republican Rep. Mary Fallin holds a solid lead in
the race for governor over both possible Democratic rivals: She bests Democratics Drew Edmondson, 50% to 35%, and Jari Askins,
49% to 36%.

It looks like the New York state Democratic strategy of avoiding a primary for incumbent U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be working. A new Quinnipiac
poll reports that Gillibrand now leads her two possible Republican challengers by significant margins: She has a +20% lead over Bruce Blakeman (46% to 26%)
and a +22% lead over David Malpass (47% to 25%).

While most polls show the Florida U.S. Senate race close, a new Florida
Chamber of Commerce poll tells a different story. It shows independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist widening his lead
over Republican Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. The poll reports that Crist leads the pack with 42%, followed by Rubio at 31% and Meek at 14%.

Out this week: slightly conflicting polls on the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana. One poll, from Magellan
Strategies shows incu,bent GOP Sen. David Vitter with a substantial +20% lead over his Democratic challenger,
Rep. Charles Melancon, 51% to 31%. Another, from Public
Policy Polling reports a smaller, +9% lead for Vitter. In that survey, he trails Melancon, 46% to 37%.

Despite recent problems over his misstating of his military record, Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a solid lead over his Republican challenger Linda McMahon in Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen
poll. And a just released Quinnipiac
poll confirms this finding: in it, Blumenthal leads by a whopping +20%--55% to 35%.

A new Rasmussen
survey in Nevada suggests that Senate Majority leader Harry Reid continues to have an uphill battle in his race for reelection. The poll reports that Republican Sharron Angle holds a hefty 11-point lead over Democrat Reid, 50% to 39%.Significantly, Angle hovers at the all-important 50% mark in the poll.

Once again the bellwether state of Missouri reflects the greater reality of a nation politically divided. A new Rasmussen
survey of voter preferences in Missouri's U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan are virtually tied, with Blunt edging out Carnahan, 45% to 44%.

In yet another case of the weakening position of incumbents, A new DailyKos/Research
2000 survey in Arkansas finds challenger Bill Halter ahead of incumbent Sen. Blanche
Lincoln in the Democratic primary runoff election, 49% to 45%, with another 6%
still undecided. These results also show that liberal party activists are fired up in the state, given Halter's run to the left of Lincoln.

In line with every other recent survey, the prestigious Field
Poll in California now reports that Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell in the GOP primary for Senate, 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore in third place at
19%.It increasingly looks like incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer's challenger will be Fiorina.

The Field
Poll in California reports that Meg Whitman now holds a 2 to 1 lead over
Steve Poizer in the Republican gubernatorial primary--51% to 25%--with
another 18% undecided. Another survey by Capitol
Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll shows Whitman with a similar lead over Poizner, 48% to 20%.

A new USC/Los
Angeles Timesl in California reports that Meg Whitman holds a whopping 24 point lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary for
governor, 53% to 29%. In a general election match up, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Whitman by si points, 44% to 38%.With a large number of undecided voters up for grabs, the race now appears to be too-close-to-call.

A new USC/Los
Angeles Times poll reports that in a general election match up,
incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina, 44% to 38%. Last week, a DailyKos/Research
2000 poll reported a similar result, with Boxer leading Republican
Tom Campbell,
47% to 40%, Carly Fiorina, 48% to 39%, and iChuck
DeVore, 47% to 38%.The relatively
high number of undecided voters suggests that the race is close, with Boxer maintaining a slight edge.

A new Siena
Poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo-- who just officially announced his candidacy for governor--holds a commanding lead over all three of his hypothetical Republican opponents: he beats likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio, 66% to 24%, Carl Paladino, 65% to
22%, and Steve Levy, 65% to 22%.

A new Siena
poll reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has passed an important threshold in her reelection race: she is now over the important 50% make in hypothetical match ups with her potential
Republican challengers.She leads Republicans Bruce Blakeman, 51% to 24%, Joe DioGuadia, 51% to 25%, and David Malpass, 53% to
22%.

Two new polls suggest that Carly Fiorina has retaken the lead--by a fairly wide margin--in California's Republican primary for U.S. Senate: a new Public
Policy Polling survey shows Fiorina with a +20% lead over Tom Campbell, 41% to 21%, with Chuck
DeVore (R) running third at 16%. These results are quite similar to a SurveyUSA
poll released yesterday.

The Miami Herald reports that Charlie Crist holds a narrow lead in the Florida U.S.
Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a "purely
political'' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent
candidate in the Nov. 2 general election." The new St. Petersburg
Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds that of the registered
voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican
Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek."

With a banking scandal brewing around the Democratic nominee, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois has grown more favorable to the Republican candidate. A new DailyKos/Research
2000 poll in Illinois reports that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk now leads Alexi
Giannoulias the race, 41% to 38%.

Will Democrats flip the state house in Connecticut this year? The answer may be yes. A Rasmussen poll in the nutmeg state finds Democrat Ned Lamont ahead of Republican Thomas Foley in the race for governor, 42% to 35%. Another Democrat vying for the gubernatorial nomination, Dan Malloy, also leads Foley, 38% to 35%.

A DailyKos/Research
2000 poll in Arizona suggest that while the race has grown closer, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John McCain leads primary
challenger Republican J.D. Hayworth by a significant twelve point margin, 48% to 36%. In a general election match up, McCain bests Democrat Rodney Glassman by 13-points. 48% to
35%.

A just released Suffolk University
poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak now lead incumbent Sen. Arlen
Specter in the Democratic Senate primary by +9%, 49% to
40%, with another 12% undecided. That a five-point jump from earlier in the week.

Could incumbent Republican Charles Grassley be in trouble in his reelection bid for U.S. Senate? A new KCCI
poll in Iowa reports that the race appears to be tightening up, Grassley now leads Democrat Roxanne Conlin by just nine
points, 49% to 40%.

A new poll suggest that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is in Danger in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania. In the Democratic primary, the survey shows Specter behind rival Joe Sestak. In Monday's Muhlenberg/Morning
Call tracking poll: Rep. Sestak leads Sen. Specter by +5%--47% to 42%. A new Rasmussen
survey also shows Sestak with a +5% lead, 47% to 42%.

For GOP US Senate hopeful, Florida Governor Charlie Crist may have made a smart move by deciding to run as an independent: another poll, this one from Mason
Dixon poll, finds Crist leading a
three-way race for U.S. Senate with 38%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at
32% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 19%. Interestingly, the poll reports that "More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who
overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a
controversial teacher tenure bill."

Is the U.S. Senate race in Washington headed for a squeaker this fall? A SurveyUSA
poll in Washington reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray does no better
than 46% against six possible Republican opponents. In one match up, Murray should be particularly alarmed: against Republican Dino Rossi (R)--who is considering a Senate run--Murray trails by -10%-- 52% to 42%.

Are Republicans headed for victory in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, possibly winning the seat once held by President Obama? A new Rasmussen
survey in Illinois suggests that the answer may be yes. The poll finds that Democratic Alexi Giannoulias falling behind his Republican challenger, Rep.
Mark Kirk (R). Kirk now leads Giannoulias by eight points, 46% to 38%.

A newly released McLaughlin
& Associates poll in Florida suggest that incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist may have made a good move by dropping out of the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and running as an independent. According to the survey, he now leads the race with 33%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at
29% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 15%. Who does Crist hurt more? The survey shows Crist taking more votes from Meek than
Rubio, actually besting Meeks with Democrats.Any trends here? With a large number of undecided voters and Crist and Rubio relatively close, PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

It looks like the Democrats are honing in on a candidate to challenge Republican Rob Portman in the U. S. Senate race in November. A new Suffolk
University poll shows Lee Fisher trouncing Jennifer
Brunner in this week's Democratic primary race, 55% to 27%. These numbers are consistent with a spate of new polls that show Fisher well head in the race to challenge Portman, who is
unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the general election.

A new SurveyUSA
poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican
U.S. Senate primary race with 34%. Carly Fiorina garners 27% and
Chuck DeVore is at 14%. Another 23% are undecided about a candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer this fall.

A new SurveyUSA
poll in California reports that Meg Whitman trounces her opposition in
the Republican gubernatorial primary: she leads Steve Poizner, 49% to 27%. Six other hypothetical primary challengers receive a combined total of 9% of primary voters; 15% of likely voters remain undecided.

After months of leading in the polls, is the incumbent Democratic Governor of Maryland in trouble? A new Rasmussen
survey reports that Gov. Martin O'Malley edges former Republican
Gov. Bob Ehrlich by a scant +3% in their repeat race for governor--47% to 44%.

Can incumbent GOP Governor Charlie Crist win reelection running as an independent candidate if he drops out of the Republican primary? A new Rasmussen
survey in Florida reports that he would not be the front runner at this point: presumptive Republican nominee Marco Rubio leads with 37% of likely voters, followed by
Crist at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

A just released Rasmussen
survey in California reports that presumptive nominee Democratic Jerry Brown holds a +6% advantage over his hypothetical challenger, Republican Meg Whitman (R), 44% to 38%. A month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 40%.

A new Mason-Dixon
poll reports that even when third-party and nonpartisan candidates are included on the
ballot, Democrat Sen. Harry Reid loses his reelection race to Republican challenger Sue Lowden. Lowden now leads Reid, 47% to 37%, with the other candidates getting very
little support.

A Quinnipiac survey in Florida reports that in the Republican primnary for US Senate, Marco Rubio holds a commanding lead over Gov.
Charlie Crist, 56% to 33%. In general election match ups, Rubio holds a very modest lead over Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), 42%
to 38% (Crist's lead over Meek is wider, 48% to 34%.). But what if Crist, now poised to loose his Republican primary bid, runs as an independent in the general? According to Quinnipiac, he would win by a slight margin, with Crist at 32%, followed by Rubio at 30% and Meek at 24%.

A new Rasmussen
survey in Illinois shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk besting Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias (D) in their U.S. Senate race, 41% to 37%. With the lead statistically insignificant--and the number of undecided voters high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

A new Quinnipiac
poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds commanding leads against all of his hypothetical Republican challengers in the race for Governor: Cuomo bests Rick Lazio, 55% to 26%, Carl Paladino, 60% to
24%, and Democrat turned Republican Steve Levy, 57% to 24%. PollTrack rates the race safe Democrat.

In the Democratic primary for US Senate in Ohio, A new DailyKos/Research
2000 poll reports that Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner, 35% to 26%, with a whopping 39% still undecided. In the general election the poll shows Democrat Fisher leading Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 39%; Brunner leads by an even smaller margin, 41% to 40%.
With the leads statistically insignificant--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

A new DailyKos/Research
2000 survey in Ohio reports that incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland is ahead of his presumptive challenger Republican John Kasich in the race for governor, 45% to 40%, with 15%
still undecided. With the race statistically close--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

While PollTrack continues to rate the US Senate race in California too-close-to-call, a new poll now incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer in the lead: the Los
Angeles Times/USC poll reports that in the general election, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) holds a considerabele advantage over a generic Republican, 48% to 34%, as she seeks her fourth
term.

Incumbent Republican US Senator John McCain appears to be leading in his primary race: A new DailyKos/Research
2000 poll in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) leading primary
challenger J.D. Hayworth (R) by a significant margin, 52% to 37%.

A round of new polling suggests that incumbent Democratic senator Barbara Boxer may be in serious trouble in California. Her lead against hypothetical challenger Carly Fiorina has now dropped to +4.2%, 46% to 41.8%. The two newest polls, including the highly respected Field poll, sow an even smaller lead, at +1%.

Are Democrats gaining in Ohio? A new Quinnipiac
poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey finds that Democrats now
lead in both the U.S. Senate and Governor's races. In hypothetical match ups in the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman, 41% to
37%; Democratic Secretary of
State Jennifer Brunner also edges Portman, albeit by a single point, 38% to 37%, a +6% gain over Quinnipiac's February poll. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger
John Kasich by +5%--43% to 38%.

A new Rasmussen
Reports survey reports that the popular Republican Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota --now running for for the open seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan--holds a huge lead over Democratic candidate Tracy Potter, 68% to 25%.

A new Marist
Poll in New York suggests that incumbent Democratic US Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand may be vulnerable in her reelection bid this November: the poll finds former Republican Gov. George Pataki leading Gillibrand by a slim margin: 47% to 45%. Marist observes: "Former Governor Pataki is the big unknown
for Gillibrand. With her approval rating at 27%, Gillibrand will almost
certainly have her work cut out for her if Pataki enters the race."

A new Marist
Poll reports that the popularity incumbent New York Gov. David Paterson's has dropped to an even lower level since of series of scandals were revealed this winter: he now has just 17% favorable rating.Perhaps very good news for the Democratic party, Paterson announced recently that he would not seek reelection this November.

A new Field
Poll reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has the lowest approval rating in modern history, "including Gray Davis, who was ousted by Schwarzenegger in a
popular uprising." 71% of California voters surveyed disapprove
of Republican Schwarzenegger's handling of the job; 23 percent approve. s Field notes: "The
low ratings are shared across all demographics including party
affiliation, region of the state, age and race or ethnicity."

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US
Senate.

Here is the poll average for OHIO:

Portman (R) 44.0 % to Fischer (D) 39.0%.

In this hypothetical match up (including only the respective leaders in their party's upcoming primaries), PollTrack believes that neither party leads in this key bellwether state. Many voters remain undecided.

Meg Whitman appears to be doing very well in her bid to become California's next governor: a new Field
Poll shows the GOP front runner with a enormous lead over Steve Poizner in
the Republican primary race, 63% to 14%. After weeks of being behind in a hypothetical general election match up, Whitman now leads Democrat Jerry Brown, 46% to 43%.

A Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado reports that the 2010 race for U.S. Senate has now drawn down in a tied. In a hypothetical match up, incumbent Democrat, Michael Bennet is tied with his Republican challenger Jane Norton at 43%. The outcome of the Democratic primary in the state could make a difference, however: In PPP survey, Democrat Andrew Romanoff actually leads Norton, 44% to 39%.

Is a Republican upset possible in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin? A new Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll now reports that former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson is leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in a hypothetical match up, 51% to 39%. One caveat: WPRI has tied to the Republican Party. Stay tuned for more polling.

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter has a modest lead Republican Pat Toomey, 47% to 41%. Other surveys have also reported movement in Specter's direction in recent weeks.

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

With the primaries over in Texas, Rasmussen reports that the incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by a small margin: 49% to 43%. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened considerably in recent months.

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders . . . are gaining ground at
this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest
Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman
leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and
this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for
another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

Contradicting a Quinnipiac poll released late last week, a new Siena Research Institute survey reports that "A clear majority of voters, 55%, would prefer Governor David Paterson serve the remainder of his term, compared to 37% who would like him to resign and allow Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch to serve as governor for the remainder of the year. And an even larger majority, 71 percent, would rather see the Governor finish his term, while 21 percent would like the State Legislature to move to impeach the Governor if he does not resign."

With even more harmful stories circulating last week about embattled NY Governor David Paterson, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that voters are now
split 46% to 42% over whether Paterson should finish his
term rather than resign. Just a few days earlier, Quinnipiac found, by a 61% to 31% margin, voters wanted Paterson serving to serve out his term.

Despite being battered by a series of punishing news cycles, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that 61% of voters want incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson to finish out his term, this despite a dismal 24% approval rating and an increasing number of political figures calling for him to resign.

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with
36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a
Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid
continues to trail by significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid,
52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

Who is ahead in the possible Democratic primary for US Senate in New York? A new Siena College poll finds incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) holds a significant +26% lead over former Rep. Harold Ford--42% to 16%. In general election hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand trails former GOP Gov. George Pataki, 47% to 41%, but she trouncesDaily News publisher Mort Zuckerman, 49% to 29%.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Louisiana, incumbent Republican David Vitter, though damaged by scandal, maintains the clear edge in reelection bid. PollTrack First Call: Likely
Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Delaware's open seat, popular US Congressman Mike Castle has the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Likely
Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race
in New York, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans
Democrat.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race
in California, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans
Democrat.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race
in North Carlina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr is showing surprising strength after a rocky year. PollTrack First Call: Leans
Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Missouri's open seat, neither party has a clear edge in this traditional bellwether state (though it has been trending slightly Republican in recent years, it's other US Senator is a moderate Democrat). Still, PollTrack sees the race as slightly more favorable to the GOP. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in the key swing state of Colorado, incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans
Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Arkansas, incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln has fallen behind in his race for reelection. The latest Public Policy Polling survey has Rep. John Boozman (R) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by a a very wide margin, 56% to 33%. PollTrack First Call: Leans
Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in two states with dominant political parties and strong candidates representing those parties--Connecticut (Democrat) and North Dakota (Republican)--the races are easy calls at this point. In ND, a very likely GOP win would represent a Republican pick up (it had previously been held by Democrat Byron Dorgan). CT's seat was held by retiring Democrat, Christopher Dodd, and should remain in Democratic hands.

For the next two weeks, PollTrack will be offering daily analysis of each of the competitive upcoming US Senate races. PollTrack's cycle of analysis will continue periodically until our US Senate map goes live in the spring. Stay tuned. Today's races: Connecticut and North Dakota.

A poll just out from Rasmussen Reports suggests that incumbent Wisconsin Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. It finds Republican Tommy Thompson overtaking Russ
Feingold, 47% to 43%, in a possible U.S. Senate match-up.

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Meg Whitman leads challenger Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 17%. But Democrat Jerry Brown handily beats Whitman in a general election match up, 46% to 36%. Brown leads Poizner by an even greater margin, 48% to 31%.

According to a post-election Washington Post survey of Massachusetts voters, "dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward
federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats'
health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial
candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts . . . Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the
country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these
voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the
more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as
off-course . . . Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at
least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in
Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop
it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him
to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in
general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation."

In what may well be a testament to the unpopularity of health care reform--and perhaps declining support for the Obama administration--an AFL-CIO survey of union members found that Republican Scott Brown's victory in last Tuesday's special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts "was lifted by strong support from union households." The poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley.

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

A Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut suggestsd that it will be tough sailing for Republicans in the 2010 Governor's race in Connecticut: in hypothetical match ups, the poll finds three Democrats running--Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy--with solid
leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley. Bysiewicz leads Foley 48% to 26% and Fedele 50% to 25%. Lamont and Malloy also hold double digit leads over their Republican rivals. A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut also finds a Democratic lead in hypothetical matchups, but with the candidates FAR closer to each other: Lamont edges Foley, 38% to 36%,
and beats Fedele, 41% to 32%. Malloy beats Foley, 37% to 33%, and leads
Fedele, 37% to 31%.

It's minutes before the polls close in MA. On the ground reports from both campaigns suggest that voting may have been lighter in traditionally Democratic strongholds (relative to Republican districts). While PollTrack cannot confirm this, a reading of on-the-ground journalistic accounts of voting today seems to confirm parallel this view. Still, without exit polls (which were not arranged by news organizations), this may be a long night.

While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.

Here are some Election Day updates care of WBZ TV Boston on today's special election in Massachusetts:

LATE-POLLING: A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with
double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as
bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. Internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat.

TURNOUT: In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout . . . Massachsuetts Secretary of State William Galvin told WBZ he expects
about 40-percent of voters to turn out for the special election
statewide. Galvin said about 800,000 came out for the primaries and he believes
that should double to 1.6 million based on the intense interest in this
campaign.

The FINAL PollTrack polling average for tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts to fill the U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy shows Republican Scott Brown with a decided advantage: he leads his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley: 50% to 46%.

A just released Politico/Insider Advantage survey shows Republican Scott Brown up by +9.1% in his race to fill the U.S. seat in Massachusetts. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley, 52.3% to 43.1%. Significantly, Brown is over the all-important 50% mark in this poll.

PollTrack's polling average in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election to fill the seat of the late-Ted Kennedy gives Republican Scott Brown a clear lead over Democrat Martha Coakley: 49.8% to 45.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +4%. More ominous for Coakley: Brown's numbers hover at the 50% mark. Still, turnout could make the race much closer (or increase Brown's lead).

Two polls out tonight suggest that the momentum in the Massachusetts race to fill the seat of the late-Senator Edward Kennedy has swung towards Republican Scott Brown. Public Policy Polling survey shows Brown leading Martha Coakley, 51%
to 46%, an advantage of +5%. A Merriman River Group poll finds that Brown ahead of Coakley by +9.6%--50.8% to 41.2%. PollTrack believes that the spate of late-breaking polls for Brown suggests that he has the clear momentum leading into Tuesday's election. With incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick holding onto an approval number in the low thirties, the usually true blue state may not be automatically hospitable to Democrats, and thus could be fertile turf for an upset. Stay tuned for more analysis throughout the next two days . . . and live blogging on Tuesday evening, Election night!

With Martha Coakley's internal poll showing her two points behind as of Friday night (47% to 45%)--taken before her on-air gaffe in which she called the Boston Rox Sox great and Scott Brown supporter, Curt Schilling, a New York Yankee fan--the race looks very close. PollTrack believes that as of this morning the momentum remains with Republican Brown, spurred, perhaps, by a Coakley blooper that suggests that she, the state's attorney general, is a bit of touch with her constituents, not to mention recent state history (think 2004 World Series).

Given public perceptions of Coakley as aloof--the increasing perception among the electorate that the President and the Democratic party is out of touch with their immediate needs, especially with regard to their emphasis on health care over job creation in a time of dire unemployment--Brown's populist rhetoric appears to be resonating, even in true blue Massachusetts.

The bigger problem for the Democrats: even if Coakley scrapes by, a close win in a state that has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in more than 30 years, suggests real trouble in lesser blue states--like New York, Delaware, and California--and potential routes in swing states, like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and . . . and we recently witnessed, Virginia.

Here's another fact that should have Democrats very nervous about the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts: even if the specter of possible defeat drives complacent Democrats to the polling booth next Tuesday, this may not be enough to offset the enthusiasm of Republican voters AND, as some polling data suggests, that independents are breaking for Republican Scott Brown by a three-to-one margin. One even more important observation: independents
outnumber Democrats in the state by a wide margin: 51% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 37% are registered as Democrats, and 11%
as Republicans.

A third poll now gives Republican Scott Brown the edge against his Democratic Challenger Martha Coakley in the race to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts: the American Research Group poll finds Brown ahead of Coakley, 48% to 45%, for a lead of +3%.

PollTrack's first polling average for the special US Senate race in Massachusetts, has Republican Scott Brownleading Democrat Martha Coakley by +2%--48% to 46%. Stay tuned throughout the weekend for updated averages and analysis of new polling in the state.

PollTrack's reading of the latest polls in the MA US Senate race suggests that Democrat Martha Coakley, once thought to be unbeatable in this bluest of blue states, is in serious trouble. One source reports that Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Republican Scott Brown by three points, 47% to 44%. A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts shows Brown leading Coakley, 50%
to 46% with only 1 percent of voters remaining undecided. A Coakley loss would spell serious trouble, as well, for Democrats in this November's mid-term election. With MA Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating in the mid-20% range--and the president's standing in the state suffering as well--the Democratic edge in Massachusetts appears to have evaporated this year. (MA is also a state with an exceptionally large block of independent voters, now going by a significant margin to Brown.)

Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern
electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues
strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the
Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's
unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate
candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott
Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better
campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it
appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a
competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We
see no clear advantage."

The reelection of US Senate majority leader Harry Reid is far from assured, according to new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll.
A whopping 52% of Nevadans are unhappy with Reid, the highest "unfavorable" rating he's received to date. Just 33% have a
favorable view. In hypothetical match ups against three Republicans, Reid loses to each by as much as ten points: Sue Lowden
(50% to 40%); (Danny Tarkanian, 49% to 41%); and even
Sharron Angle (45% to
40%).

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that an internal Democratic poll indicated a big lead for Martha Caokley over her Republican opponent Scott Brown in the upcoming special election for US Senate in Massachusetts. Today, the pendulum swings the other way with a report a new Rasmussen survey reporting that the race is a dead heat, with Coakley barely leading leading Brown, 49% to 47%. Last week, Coakley led by +9% in the Rasmussen survey.

According to an internal Democratic poll obtained by
Politico, "Martha Coakley
enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special
election. The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has
Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican
Sen. Scott Brown 50% to 36%. Mellman’s survey has a similar margin to a Boston Globe poll, released
Sunday, which had Coakley up by 15%. But this new poll has the
attorney general enjoying a wider lead than in some other internal
Democratic data." Stay tuned.

Some polls showing the upcoming Massachusetts U.S. Senate race close, while a new Boston Globe poll reports Democrat Martha Coakley (D), "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity,
enjoys a solid, +15% lead" among likely voters over
rival, Republican Scott Brown, 50% to 35%." When undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included, Coakley's lead grows to +17 points--53% to 36%. Yet, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the race a dead heat: with Brown actually leading Coakley by +1%--48% to
47%, "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative
disinterest from Democratic voters in the state." Stay tuned for more polling over the next few days. PollTrack's money is still on Coakley, though the outcome of the race is far from clear.

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection,
a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads
all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper
partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable
opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise
that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even
Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot
of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive
numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse
for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

In the January 19th special election to fill the seat of late Senator Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, "State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her
Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special
U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters
in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%)
prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

A spate of GOP retirements in the US House of Representatves may well stem any gains made by the GOP this November. While conventional wisdom foresees formidable GOP gains in this House this November, the spate of recent Republican retirements--now at a whopping 14--representatives, "could curtail the expected GOP gains in the
House in November," according to an analysis by Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post: "While much of the focus for the last month (or so) has been on
Democrats' retirement problems -- set off by a quartet of announcements
in swing and Republican-leaning districts over the last month -- a
broad look at the open seat playing field suggests more parity in terms
of the two parties' opportunities and vulnerabilities than conventional
wisdom suggests."

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid
(D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%,
according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes:
"Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things
will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators
running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices
at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters
have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, Republican candidates now lead Democrats by +8% in the latest "generic congressional ballot. The national telephone survey reported that
44% would vote for their district's Republican
candidate; 36% percent would choose the Democratic.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey suggests that the 2010 US Senate race in MO is very close between the two likely nominees for the open Senate seat: The poll of 500 likely voters gave Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carbahan a two point lead over Repubican Rep. Roy Blunt--46% to 44%.

A just released Quinnipiac University survey reports that if the 2010 US Senate Election in PA were held today, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey would be in a dead heat, tied at 44 percent. In the Democratic primary, Specter is surprisingly strong, boasting a 20 point lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), 50 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll in the Democratic primary scheduled for April 2010.

According to a new Public Policy Institute of California survey, Democrat Jerry Brown leads all three potential Republican rivals in California's race for governor. Brown bests Republican Meg Whitman, 43% to 37%, Republican Tom Campbell, 46% to 34%, and Republican Steve Poizner, 47% to 31%. Whitman leads the Republican primary pack with 32%, followed by Campbell at 12% and Poizner at 8%.

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, former Lieutenant
Governor Jane Norton appears to be the Republican with the best shot of
beating either of the potential Democratic candidates in Colorado’s
race for the U.S. Senate. According to the poll, Norton bests incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 46% to 37%. Benet was named to the Senate by Democratic Governor Bill Ritter
after Senator Ken Salazar became secretary of the Interior. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Additional bad news for the Democrats: Bennet "has a
challenger in his own party, former state House Speaker Andrew
Romanoff. Norton beats Romanoff 45% to 34%, little changed from the
previous survey. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided, while seven
percent (7%) like another candidate."

According to several new polls, incumbent Democratic Gov. David Paterson's approval number is slowly but surely inching upward. A new Quinnipiac poll in New York, which mirrors the finding in a Siena Institute poll released yesteday, finds that Paterson's approval rate is now 40%, up from 30% in October. However, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) still leads Paterson, 60% to 23%, in a possible Democratic primary race for governor.

Is Senator Harry Reid stewardship of health care legislation hurting his 2010 reelection chances in Nevada? According to Rasmussen, the answer may be yes: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to lag behind all potential
Republican challengers in next year’s U.S. Senate race in Nevada,
according to new Rasmussen Reports telephone polling in the state. For now at least, his championing of the president’s health
care plan appears to raise further red flags for the Democratic
incumbent. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Nevada voters oppose the plan,
while 44% favor it. More significantly, however, those numbers include 49% who strongly oppose the plan while only 23% strongly favor it."

Are Democrats about to loose the highest office in one of the nation's most important swing states, Ohio? The answer, at this early stage, could be yes: "Unemployment in Ohio has jumped to 10.5%, the state is wrestling with
an $851 million budget shortfall, and Governor Ted Strickland has
proposed delaying a tax cut approved in 2005. Add it all together, and
it’s a tough environment for the incumbent Democratic governor who now
trails his expected general election opponent by nine percentage points
in an early look at the 2010 race." In the poll, Republican John Kasich gets 48% of the vote while Strickland picks
up just 39%. Three percent (3%) say they’d prefer a third-party
candidate, and 11% are not sure who they would vote for. In September,
the two men were essentially even.

Despite his commanding role as Majority Leader, Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is not very popular in Nevada, a problem that is imperiling his 2010 reelection effort: "Nevadans
aren't warming up to Sen. Harry Reid, despite plenty of early
advertising designed to boost his image, a new poll shows. Just 38% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of
the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in
October and 1 point higher than in August. The survey of 625 registered
Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the
promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has
yet to hit its target. "I'd be worried,' said Michael
Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine,
who studies political advertising. 'I'd stop if I had aired ads for two
or three weeks and it wasn't moving the needle.' According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49%
of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13% were neutral." According to the survey, in hypothetical general election match ups, Sue Lowden (R) leads Reid, 51% to 41%, while Danny Tarkanian (R) leads 48% to 41%.

The notion that Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut is one of the most vulnerable incumbents is borne out by a new Rasmussen Reports survey. The poll finds Dodd
attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible
Republican challengers: "Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent,
leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate
in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight
improvement for Simmons since September. The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World
Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight
percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not
sure. Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president
of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a
one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some
other candidate, and 14% are undecided."

Is former NYC Republican mayor Rudolph Giuliani the GOP's best hope of defeating incumbent US Senator Kristen Gillibrand next year? A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Giuliani leading Gillibrand, 53% to 40% among likely New York voters. The poll, conducted Nov. 23, is nearly identical to a Marist poll of registered voters reporting at +14% lead for Giuliani, 54% to 40%.

A new Research 2000/Daily Kos survey reports a striking "enthusiasm gap" in the intention of Democrats and Republicans to voter in next year's congressional election: "The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to
vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to
remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were
three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans."

Will this gap adversely effect the 2010 midterms? PollTrack beliebes that while this is not a good sign for Democrats, it's still too early to tell. Stay tuned.

Political Wire wonders whether a new spate of political endorsements could slice into Attorney General Martha Coakley's lead in the Democratic primary to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the late-Edward Kennedy: "In a move that could shake up a fairly sleepy race, former
Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano for the senatorial seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy . . .In the last week, Capuano has also been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Diane Patrick, Gov. Deval Patrick's wife. With just over a week to go until the Democratic primary, all polls
have shown Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with
double-digit leads over Capuano, who polls second, and political
newcomers Alan Khazei (D) and Stephen Pagliuca (D) . . . Interestingly, the Boston Globe endorsed Khazei this morning."

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona, incumbent US Senator John McCain may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. McCain and GOP Rep. J. D. Haywoth are virtually tied in a Republican primary match-up for next year's Senate race: McCain leads Hayworth 45% to 43% percent, with anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simox at 4%.

If the 2010 US Senate election in New York were help now, Rasmussen reports, Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would just squeak by her presumptive Republican challenger, former NY Governor George Pataki. In the hypothetical match up, Gillibrand bests Pataki, 45% to 42%.

According to a new Siena Institute poll, incumbent Democratic NY Governor David Paterson has fallen behind all of his potential GOP challengers: "Less than one year before the 2010 elections and less than 10 months before the currently scheduled primary date, Governor David Paterson trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly 60 points in a potential Democratic primary, trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by more than 20 points, and for the first time trails former Congressman Rick Lazio by three points, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. Of 26 potential candidates for statewide office next year that Siena tested – Republicans and Democrats, incumbents and challengers – only Cuomo and Senator Charles Schumer on the Democratic side and Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki on the Republican side have favorability ratings over 50 percent."

In the pending Democratic primary, Paterson fares even less well: “'While the Governor’s favorability rating saw slight improvement, no other measure of his electability increased noticeably. In a Democratic primary against Cuomo, Paterson fell even further behind, 75-16 percent, and in a general election matchup against Lazio, Paterson trails for the first time ever, albeit closely 42-39 percent. In the Democratic primary, Cuomo now has a two-to-one lead over Paterson among African American voters,'” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. 'While it’s true that the Governor’s new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he’s going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson.'”

What a difference a year can make in politics. A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that the Democratic brand--and President Obama--are both suffering a decline in overall support in the key swing state of Ohio: The poll indicates a shift toward the Republicans, exemplified by President
Obama's disapproval rating in the (50%) which is now higher than his
approval rating (45%). And Republican Bob Portman, a former House member from
the Cincinnati area and the party-endorsed candidate for the Senate,
now holds slight leads--of +3% and +4% respectively--over Democrats Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor, and Jennifer Brunner, the Ohio secretary of state. Given the bellwether status of the state, these numbers could signal problems ahead for the Democrats, both in locally and nationally.

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat
held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly
every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four
candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as
across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary
vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among
registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic
congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by
six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:

Last Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district was dramatic in in terms of its result: no Democrat has held this seat in over a century. So, does the result suggest a permanent realignment or a fluke in the district? The answer is unclear at this point. As Stuart Rothenberg suggests, a divided Republican party--fraught with in-fighting--may well have handed the seat to the Democrat in a largely GOP district: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a pure toss-up." Still, PollTrack wonders if the party's internal squabbles will cause it to lose more seats next year, as ultra-conservative attempts to knock off Republican moderates in the primaries results in unelectable GOP contenders in the general election.

Acording to a Rasmussen survey, things are looking very tight in next year's US Senate race in Ohio: "Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Ohio is a neck-and-neck battle for
Republican Rob Portman no matter which Democratic candidate he faces,
according to the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the
state. Portman is in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Lee
Fisher 41% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of Ohio voters favor some other
candidate, and 14% are undecided. The former GOP congressman is also essentially even with
Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, leading by a similarly
insignificant 40% to 38% margin. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they will vote in this race."

Wondering how poorly New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is doing with voters in his state? What is undoubtedly one of the lowest approval ratings for a sitting governor, only 20% of New Yorkers think he is performing well in
office while 34% say he is doing a poor job. As a recently released Marist Poll concludes: "Paterson has had no luck
climbing out of the political basement. In Marist’s June survey, the governor garnered a 21% approval rating. On month prior, he chalked up 19%. The news for Governor Paterson gets even worse. When looking at
party, he is even scraping bottom with his fellow Democrats. Just 24%
of Democrats say he is doing well as governor. 12% of Republicans and
22% of non-enrolled voters agree."

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts give Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley a commanding lead for January's primary to replace Senator Edward Kennedy: "Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary
candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose
Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6
percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three
percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again
after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday." Even in this four person race, PollTrack observes, Coakley is close to the all important 50% mark, an impressive showing.

While the Democratic brand has taken a bit of a beating in Ohio recently--the President's approval rating in the state is lower than the national average--the party's candidates for Senator in 2010 seem to have picked up steam: A new Quinnipiac
poll reports a improvement for Democrats since their lackluster numbers this summer. The respective primaries of the two parties are as follows: [1] Democratic primary for the U.S.
Senate: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has a 26% to 17% lead over Secretary of
State Jennifer Brunner (D), with 55% still undecided. [2] In the GOP primary,
former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leads businessman Tom Ganley (R), 27% to 9%, with
61% still undecided. In the general election, Democrat Fisher tops Portman,
42% to 31%, and beats Ganley 41% to 29%. Brunner tops Portman, 39% to 34%, and
beats Ganley 39% to 31%.

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Colorado’s appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is in trouble in his 2010 bid to fill out his full term. He now find himself in a toss-up with two potential Republican challengers,
Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan
Frazier. (Bennet leads Buck 43% to 37%. "With Frazier as the
opponent, Bennet is essentially even. The numbers are 40% for Frazier
and 39% for the incumbent." As Rasmussen correctly notes, "any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered potentially vulnerable."

A new survey by Rasmussen finds a clear leader in the January 2010 race to replace Ted Kennedy for Massachusetts US Senator: "State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the
Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of
longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy . . . Coakley, the only officially declared
candidate for the post, [pulls in] 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary
voters (25%) are undecided. Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South
Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the
state’s senior member of the U.S. Huse of Representatives, with 10%. 7% favor another congressman, Michael Capuano of
Somerville, while just 3% support Rep. John Tierney,
the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other
candidate."

A number of political observers now argue that the Democrats are set to loose a large number of seats in the House of Representatives in next year's mid-term election. As Politico reports, "some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision
an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House
— not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to
power but enough to put them within striking distance. Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to
subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped
completely out of control for President Obama and congressional
Democrats . . . At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver [from the popular website, FiveThirtyEight] predicted that Republicans will
win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience
of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and
33 percent chance of winning back control of the House."

If Massachusetts sticks to the succession law as now written, the special election for Ted Kennedy's US Senate seat would be held in January: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has slated January 19, 2010 as the date voters will choose a successor to Senator Edward M. Kennedy. According to the Boston Globe,"State law requires the governor to set the process for a
special election in motion “immediately’’ upon a Senate vacancy. [The Massachusetts Secretary of State] said he calculated the date after meeting with House Speaker
Robert A. DeLeo, Senate President Therese Murray, and top Patrick
aides. Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would
require a Dec. 8 primary" PollTrack will have full coverage of the race once it's underway.

If former Republican Governor George Pataki runs against incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, he would have a slight edge in next year's race according to a new Siena College poll. In a hypothetical match up, the survey finds former Pataki leading Gillibrand, 42% to 39%.
These numbers are so close--and so far away from next year's race--that they are statistically insignificant. Yet, in a sign of the Democrat's relative strength against a lesser known, and less popular Republican, she bests Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-NY), 46% to 24%.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would crush incumbent Governor David Paterson in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: The poll finds Cuomo trouncing Paterson (D) in a possible gubernatorial
primary, 61% to 15%. In general election match ups, Republican Rudy Giuliani leads Paterson, 53% to 33%, while Cuomo beats Giuliani, 48% to 39%.

The latest polling news is dire for the incumbent Massachusetts Democratic Governor in next year's reelection race: "The latest quarterly poll from MassInsight, a nonprofit research
institute, spells more bad political news for Governor Deval L.
Patrick: His job-approval numbers have plunged to levels not seen in
decades for a Massachusetts governor. In a survey of 445 residents, taken last month and released this
week, only 19 percent of respondents gave him a positive job rating,
while 77 percent rated it fair or poor. One percent said he was doing
an excellent job. Those numbers are significantly worse than last
month's Globe poll, which also found him to be struggling politically."

According to an analysis by CQ Politics, the Democratic Party looks strong in the 2010 Congressional elections: "Democrats have a virtual lock on 198 seats for November 2010, and in another 31 districts the opportunities for a GOP upset are tenuous at best. Put those groups together and you have 229, well above the 218-seat majority threshold. In addition, one district that’s in Republican hands at the moment, which covers most of New Orleans, is expected to return to its Democratic roots next fall." Still, CQ Politics concludes that "Yet House election history alone gives the Republicans reason to hope for better results after the back-to-back setbacks of 2006 and 2008 thrust them deeply into the minority. The 2010 elections for the House will be the first since Barack Obama was elected president. With very rare exceptions over many decades, the party holding the White House has lost seats in the first such midterm election."

In presential races, Missouri and Ohio have been bellwethers of sorts. But can we say the same of these staes in the 2010 Congressional Election? The answer according to MSNBC First Read is, yes: "Without a doubt, the two biggest Senate battlegrounds next year will be
in the Show Me State and Buckeye State, and they’ll give us a good read
on the health of the two political parties. If the Democrats lose both,
it will suggest that the party’s successes in these states from
2006-2008 -- including gubernatorial and senatorial wins in both
states, as well as Obama winning in Ohio and narrowly losing in
Missouri -- might have come to an end. But if Republicans lose both --
with well-known figures from Bush years at the top of the ticket (Roy
Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman in Ohio) -- that would suggest that
the Bush and GOP brands are still major problems for the party. Bottom
line: The best way to judge who "wins" or "loses" the 2010 midterms
will be in these two states, pure and simple. And they will be the most
dominant races the media will focus on next year."

While New York's incumbent Democratic Governor, David Paterson, continues to sufffer from low approval ratings--now in the mid-30% range--his standing with voters has inched slightly upward in recent weeks. According to a Siena Research Institute survey, the Democrat, who faces election in 2010, was rated favorably by
36% of registered voters; unfavorably by 56%. The poll, conducted last week, reports an increase from 31% favorability in June 2009 and 27% in May. The recent chaotic breakdown of the NY State Legislature, deadlocked by a leadership struggle
over, actually appears to help the Governor: 64% of voters gave
Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate
fight.

The political climate continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson in New York state. His current approval rating is so low, that he runs far behind his presemptive Democratic primary and GOP general election challengers in hypothetical matchups: "It’s a knockout for Rudy Giuliani if he’s the Republican
candidate for governor in New York next year running against incumbent Democrat
David Paterson. But if Andrew Cuomo is Giuliani’s opponent, chalk up a win for
the Democrat. At least that’s the way it looks in the summer of 2009." A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows "Giuliani beating Paterson by 22 points, 55% to 33%. 8% prefer
some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. However, Cuomo tops Giuliani by seven points – 48% to 41% -
in a match-up between the two, with 6% favoring some other
candidate and 6% not sure who they’ll vote for. At this point, it appears Giuliani is likely to face the
tougher of the two Democrats since a survey of Democratic Primary voters shows
Cuomo ahead of Paterson 61% to 27%.

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000
poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the
gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic
primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner
22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats
edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%,
and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted strickland of Ohio may be in trouble with votes: "His approval rating--at 46% positive, 42% negative, is down considerably from the 57% to
29% rating he received in the organization's May 6 survey. "This is Gov. Strickland's lowest approval rating since a
45 - 12 score, with 43 percent undecided, February 1, 2007, one month after he
took office. Voters give Gov. Strickland two big thumbs down, disapproving 53 -
33% of the way he is handling the economy and disapproving 53 - 32% of the way
he is handling the state budget. Voters also feel 40 - 34%that Gov. Strickland
has not kept his campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on
these three measures. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a possible Republican challenger in
the 2010 Governor's race, has caught up with the struggling Strickland, with 40%
to the Governor's 41%, compared to a 48 - 36% Strickland lead May 6. Another
challenger, former Congressman John Kasich, trails Strickland 43 - 38 percent,
compared to 51 - 32 percent May 6.

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim. The governor’s
approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate
in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove
of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43%
approve. To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered
voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s
economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation? The answer is
pretty bad. According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about
one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor
Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. Voters’
view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The
Marist Poll last asked this question in May.
At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above
average marks. And, the governor still does not receive affirmation
from a major share of voters within his own party. However, he has
received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State. 28% believe
Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office. This
compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that both potential Democratic nominees in Ohio's 2010 US Senate race would defeat their Republican rival in a hypothetical match up in the race to succeeded retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, 41% to 32%; Jennifer Brunner holds a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman. PPP continues: "Anyone trying to figure out whether Brunner or Fisher would make a
stronger general election candidate or which has a leg up in the
primary will not find it from this poll, as their numbers are nearly
identical across the board."

A poll out from Rasmussen reports that voters would prefer that incumbent (and embattled) Illinois US Senator Roland Burris not seek reelection in 2010. The Democrat, who was appointed to fill the seat of President Obama, is not popular: "61% of voters now say they would
definitely vote against [the Senator] if he runs for a full
term in 2010 . . . That result is up from 54% back in April.Burris was
named to the Senate by since-impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich . . . 6% of voters would definitely vote for
Burris, while 32% say their vote would depend on who runs against him."

In a state that is trending slightly Democratic these days--Obama won it in 2008--the Democrats may have an edge in the 2010 US Senate Race. Public Policy Polling reports that a mere 29% of North Carolina voters think incumbent Republican senator Richard Burr deserves another term, "with 49% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance . . . 22% are unsure. Even among Republican voters just 49% say Burr deserves another term. 34% of independents and 11% for Democrats do. These numbers reflect one aspect of Burr’s precarious position that has not gotten a lot of play, which is that even voters in his own party are not that enthused about him, something that could pose a problem in turning out GOP voters with this race at the top of the ticket next year. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr trails 41-38. One thing he does have working in his favor is a 39-32 lead with independents, but he’s not showing the level of crossover support at this point that he would need to get reelected.

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that the propects of incumbent Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd have much improved in his 2010 reelection bid: The poll finds Dodd gaining on former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). However, Simmons still leads by six points, 45% to 39%, in a 2010 Senate match up. Simmons led by 16 points in early April. Against State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd leads 41% to 39%." Still much work lies ahead for dodd if he is to move into a comfortable position for reelection. PollTrack, at this early stage, rates the race a toss-up.

Former GOP New York Governor George Pataki would make a formidable opponent against Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in her 2010 reelection effort. Indeed, with a relative low approval rating, the Democrat may have a tough reelection race. A new Siena Institute poll reports: "While 27 percent of voters are prepared to elect her Senator in 2010, 39 percent of voters prefer 'someone else.' This is a significant improvement for Gillibrand since April when it was 20-47 percent. In head-to-head matchups, Gillibrand leads Nassau County Congressman Peter King 48-26 percent (up slightly from 47-23 percent in March). But, significantly, she remains tied with Pataki 43-43 percent (was 41-41 percent in March)."

Things continue to look very dire for Governor David Paterson's 2010 reelection chances. According to a new Siena Institute Poll, his approval rating remains at a record low level: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 27 percent of voters and unfavorably by 60 percent, virtually identical to last month’s 27-63 percent. His job performance rating is 18 percent positive, 81 percent negative, unchanged from last month. Only 15 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 71 percent who prefer someone else,' barely up from 12-71 percent in April."

“Voters are continuing to deliver bad news to the Governor. His popularity remains at record low levels, with more than twice as many voters having an unfavorable view of him as have a favorable view and fewer than one in five voters saying he’s doing an excellent or good job as Governor,” said Siena New York pollsterSteven Greenberg. “If a Democratic primary were held today, Andrew Cuomo would beat David Paterson by a 70-19 percent margin, with African American voters supporting Cuomo by better than two-to-one.”“

According to a statewide poll in Missouri (Democracy Corps), Democrats may have the edge in the 2010 US Senate Race: "The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri
shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate
seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. [The survey] shows Secretary of State
Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44
percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest
with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a
position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it
appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile
than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that
Blunt cannot offer."

Things continue to look bleak for Democratic incumbent Governor David Paterson for his 2010 reelection bid: A new Quinnipiac
poll finds Andrew Cuomo (D) beating Gov. David Paterson (D), 62% to
17%. Paterson's 61% to 28% disapproval is at an historic low, even below former Governor Spitzer during his infamous resignation last year. "With support in every demographic
sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew
Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn
things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there's not a hint of
good news for him in this poll." The general election match up, though close, bodes well for Cuomo: he leads Rudy Giuliani (R), 47% to 41%.

In a hypothetical match up for the 2010 US Senate race in New Hampshire, it's the GOP candidate who has the edge: If Republican incumbent senator Judd Gregg does not choose to run in 2010, a likely decision at this point, "a likely Republican candidate is former Senator John Sununu, who lost his reelection battle to Shaheen in 2008. Sununu is well known, but his popularity is still suffering from the bruising 2008 election campaign. [In a recent poll] currently, 47% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 5% are neutral, and 12% don’t know enough about him to say. Sununu’s net favorability rating is +11%. Although Sununu has not indicated that he plans to run in 2010, a hypothetical matchup for Senate between Hodes and Sununu is likely to be a close match. If the election were held today, 46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure. Both candidates have the full support of their partisans, and Sununu holds a narrow 38% to 31% lead among Independents."

According to a Marist Institute Poll, Democratic NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in a weak position, re: her 2010 reelection bid: "Hers was an atypical ascent to the Senate, and . . . Gillibrand has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that she
belongs there . . . 19% of voters today think she is doing an above average job. And, more
voters have formed an opinion of Gillibrand. While half of voters back
in March reported they weren’t quite sure how Gillibrand was doing,
fewer — 43% — feel that way now. However, there’s a rub. More New
York voters — 10% — currently view Gillibrand as doing a subpar job
compared with two months ago when 5% shared that view. . . "

". . . . What are Senator Gillibrand’s chances for election to the U.S.
Senate in 2010? In a hypothetical matchup against former New York
State Governor George Pataki, Gillibrand trails Pataki, 38% to 46%.
Gillibrand has lost ground to the former governor. In Marist' March surve, Gillibrand led Pataki 45% to 41%. Although still in the lead,
Gillibrand has also lost support in a hypothetical pairing against U.S.
Representative Peter King. Currently, 42% of voters say they would
back Gillibrand while 31% report they would vote for King. 27% are
unsure. However, in March, Gillibrand led King 49% to 28% with 23%
reporting they were uncertain about whom they would support."

Can unpopular Democratic NY Governor David Paterson get reelected next year? The answer may well be no, if a new Marist Institute poll is correct: "Not quite one-fifth of New York registered voters statewide — 19% — report that Governor David Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. That is a seven percentage point drop since The Marist Poll last asked this question in its Masrch 2009 survey. In fact, voters are so dissatisfied with the governor’s performance that a majority — 51% — say they would prefer his sex scandal-plagued predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, be in office than he. On both questions, Paterson doesn’t even receive backing from a majority of voters in his own party. Just 22% of Democrats think he is doing well as governor, and half say, 'Resurrect Spitzer!'" PollTrack suggests that these numbers are striking, lower than any NY state governor in the history of statewide polling. It's hard to see how Paterson could win his party's nomination at this point--especially running against the state very popular Democratic Atoorney General Andrew Cuomo--let alone the 2010 general election.

In what can be interpreted as a bit a good news for the Republican Party, CQ Politics reports that while "the partisan skew of the early 2010 open seats might be bad news for the
GOP . . . there is some salve for the GOP, though, in its early 2010 cycle open-seat
situation. The districts that are being left open by Republican retirees or
seekers of other offices are reliably Republican-leaning . . . the nine open Republican districts all voted for McCain and gave him a robust
average of 61 percent of the vote." The news is not exactly bad for Democrats: "As for the four Democrats who are not seeking re-election to the House -- all
are running for either governor or senator in their home states -- Democratic
presidential nominee Barack Obama won all of their districts with an average of
71 percent of the vote"

Is there a ray of hope for the GOP in its efforts to unseat newly minted Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter in his 2010 reelection drive in Pennsylvania? Perhaps: "Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R) is considering running for the U.S.
Senate nomination in his home state." According to Roll Call and reported by Political Wire, national
Republicans "have been publicly and privately urging Ridge to consider a Senate
bid since Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) announced earlier this week that he was
switching parties and would run for re-election as a Democrat in
2010." Ridge's 'moderate politics and national profile would make him a
more viable candidatei in the general election than former Rep. Pat Toomey
(R-PA)." A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll also finds Ridge would edge Specter, 39% to 38%, in a match up for U.S. Senate.

According to Political Wire, "as a result of Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat, CQ
Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race to
"Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear
Favorite." Similarly, the Cook Political Report changed its rating
to Leans Democratic and the Rothenberg
Political Report now rates the race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent
Party." What a difference a day can make.

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to
fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in
the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut
residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745
from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign
fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time
when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign
strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their
side."

A Flood of retiring US House members may spell trouble for the Republican Party. According to Stuart Rothenberg, "House retirements are running a bit ahead of schedule this
cycle, at least compared with where they stood in 2005 and 2007. And if they
even approach the same numbers as in the past two election cycles, retirements
could play a significant part in the eventual 2010 House battleground." Significantly, more Republicans are retiring than Democrats, leading Rothenberg to wonder about GOP prospects in 2010: "The last time more Democrats than Republicans retired was in 1998, when 17
Democrats and 16 Republicans did not seek re-election... Over the past five
elections, 106 Republican House Members have not sought re- election, while only
49 Democrats have walked away from their seats -- a significant difference."

A Public Policy Polling’s Arkansas survey reports tepid "approval ratings for Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. 45% of voters support the job she’s doing while 40% say they disapprove of her work. Hurting Lincoln’s numbers are poor marks from independents, only 31% of whom say they approve of her performance while 50% rate her negatively. 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans express approval. Lincoln holds solid, but not spectacular, leads over a couple of folks who have been rumored as possible challengers. She has a 46-38 edge over former US Attorney Tim Griffin and leads state senator Gilbert Baker 48-37. Baker and Griffin are both largely unknown to the state’s voters and their numbers can probably be viewed as those of the generic Republican opponent to Lincoln."

The Republican incumbent US Senator in North Carolina, Richard Burr, is looking vulnerable in his 2010 reelection effort. According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, "Burr continues to have approval ratings worse than Elizabeth Dole’s at the same point in the election cycle two years ago as he prepares to run for reelection in 2010, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. 35% of voters in the state approve of the job Burr is doing, with 32% disapproving. Dole’s numbers were 43%/31% around this time in 2007. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 43%-35% in a hypothetical contest. Dole led Marshall 46%-35% during the period Democrats were recruiting a candidate two years ago. Even after more than ten years in statewide office and a 2002 Senate campaign, more than half of the voters in the state don’t hold any opinion about Elaine Marshall in an either positive or negative direction. 28% of voters have a positive view of her, 19% a negative one, and 53% have no opinion. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr leads 42-38. That number is somewhat misleading though as 22% of Democrats, unsure who their nominee will be, say they are undecided while only 12% of Republicans report the same."

A recent poll by conservative-leaning think tank Civitas Institute conducted March 16
to 19 "confirmed what many others have found - Burr continues to
struggle with name recognition. Fifty percent of registered voters told Civitas they either has no
opinion or were unaware of the first-term Republican senator. That is
down from 54% when Civitas asked the same question in January.
Thirty-seven percent held a favorable opinion of Burr in the most
recent poll, which held steady from January. The Civitas poll also showed Burr trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 41% to 38% in a hypothetical match-up."

PollTrack makes one observation: with a very popular Barack Obama at the head of the ticket in 2008, Democratic voter groups turned out in very healthy numbers. With Obama not a factor on the 2010 ballot, will Democrats turn out with the same intensity?

According to a Siena Research Institute survey, Democratic New York Governor David Paterson is very unpopular with voters: "David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor . . . . If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani."

Siena continues: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 29% of voters and unfavorably by 58%, down from last month‟s 40-47% rating. His job performance rating is 19% positive, 78% negative down from 28-69% last month. Only 14% of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67% who prefer “someone else.” That‟s down from 19-57% last month."

Incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter has a new challenge in Pennsylvania: the state's shifting demographics. According to election data tabulated by Roll Call,
his once reliable suburban Philadelphia base "has seen the
sharpest drop in Republican registrations in the state -- numbers that
collectively exceed his margin of victory over Pat Toomey in the 2004
Republican primary. . . . A simultaneous spike in Democratic enrollment likely means that
moderate Republicans switched their registrations over the past four
years. The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more
conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004."

"Governor Paterson is rated poorly when compared to other current and former officials in the State. He is rated favorably by only 41% of the votes and unfavorably by 46%. He is the only statewide official with an overall negative rating. Governor Paterson’s job performance is rated even more poorly by voters, with only 29% rating his performance positively and 66% negatively. The rating is weak across all regions of the state and by gender.If the election for Governor were held today, the majority of voters would prefer to vote for someone else other than Governor Paterson by a margin of 55% to 20% with 25% undecided. Governor Paterson does poorly across all regions and genders."

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of
two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he
doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former
GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in
running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said
they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people
are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder
when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd
says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to
take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

According to a new poll, GOP US Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania may be the latest northeast Republican in danger of loosing his seat: "53% of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of
Republicans -- want someone to replace Specter. "Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job
well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a 'new person' in that
job, registered voters by a 53-38% said it's time to give someone
else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. 8% were undecided."

According to a new poll, NY Governor David Paterson may be in serious trouble with voters. His job approval numbers are at the lowest point in the 27 years that the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion has been surveying public opinions of governor: "Only 26% of registered voters surveyed said Mr.
Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71%
said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher
approval rating a year ago, 30%, when he was the governor amid
his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe
Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state’s problems, but
suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead. Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62% to %. In a general election,Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53% to 38%."

Things have improved a bit for Democrats in their congressional prospects for 2010: "Democrats have pulled slightly further ahead this week in the
latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that 41%
of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while
37% said they would choose the Republica."

According to a report in the Chicago Sun Times, embattled Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) met with Sen. Dick Durbin
(D-Ill.) on Tuesday afternoon and delivered two distinct messages: "he will not resign in the wake of the
controversy surrounding his appointment by the ousted Gov. Blagojevich
and he will not run for the seat in 2010. Burris has finally realized
that not seeking election next year is the least price he will pay."

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S.
Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match
up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.

A new Chicago Tribune poll reports that more Illinois voters want to see Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn run for Senate in 2010 than newly-appointed Democrat Sen. Roland Burris. 48% of registered voters would like to see Quinn
run, 15% do not want him to run and 37% are undecided. Voters want Burris to run by a narrower margin--37% to 33%, with 29% undecided.

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote
for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less
likely to do so."

Political Wire reports that a soon to be released Strategic Vision poll
in Florida shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) the runaway favorite in
the 2010 U.S. Senate race should he decide to run: "Among Democrats, Rep. Ron Klein leads the pack with 12%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 10% and 66% still undecided. Among Republicans, Crist leads the field with 54% support, followed by Rep. Connie Mack at 14%. In general election match ups, Crist beats each of the Democrats by
more than 25 points, though pollster David Johnson suggests name
recognition is the key factor at this point in the cycle."

A new Siena College poll finds that a majority of New York voters think Gov. David Paterson did just a fair or poor job filling the state's U.S. Senate vacancy. The polls reports that 33% of voters thought he did a fair job,
while 29% thought it was poor. Only 27% said the process was good,
and 6% rated it excellent. The poll is the first since the Kennedy leaks and Paterson's selection of Rep.
Kirsten Gillibrand.

Has the past few months of bad pressfor New York Govenor David Paterson --culminating in the poorly handled search for Hillary Clinton's US Senate replacement--taken its toll on his reelection chances? A new Siena Research Institute poll suggests that the Democrat has his work cut out for him: Governor David Paterson's lead over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a potential 2010 gubernatorial primary fell from 23 points in December to just two points today. For the first time since May, Cuomo has a better favorable/unfavorable rating than Paterson: “Whether because of the prolonged Senate selection situation or on-going budget issues, voters are less inclined to support Governor Paterson for election today than they were only one month ago,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “While the Governor's favorability rating remains strong, it is now lower than the Attorney General's, who has his highest favorability rating ever. “For the first time since he's been Governor, more people are inclined to support 'someone else' than they are to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010."

According to the New York Daily News, Democratic Governor David Paterson had made a decision concerning a replacement for US Senator Hillary Clinton who will soon be confirmed as US Secretary of State: "Sources close to Paterson say they believe Caroline Keenedy is still the front-runner - despite the fact the governor has recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Hudson). 'I have a good idea now which direction I want to go," said Paterson. Despite the national anticipation, Paterson said he will wait a few more days before making an announcement. 'I thought that with something this serious - that when I came to a
point of view - that I wouldn't react to it immediately," he said. "I
thought I would see if it feels the same way [tomorrow] ... as it did,
I guess toward the end of [Monday] afternoon when I think I started to
come to a point of view.' Paterson's process has left many befuddled in recent days as he has seemingly swung from one position to another."

According to the New York Post, Caroline Kennedy will be Gov. David Paterson's pick to replace outgoing US Senator Hillary Clinton. The Post reports: "Despite claims that he's still undecided, Gov. Paterson is 'certain' to
pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the US
Senate, several unhappy contenders for the job have told friends and
associates in recent days. The contenders based their conclusion on the view that Paterson, after
nearly two months of indecision, would "greatly embarrass" and
"entirely humiliate" Kennedy, anger her prominent political family and
even offend President-elect Barack Obama by picking someone other than
President John F. Kennedy's daughter."

According to the Associated Press, former eBay Inc. chief executive Meg Whitman has edged closer to a run for California
governor. The Republican is strongly considering a run for the seat when Arnold Schwarzenegger's term is up in 2010. Whitman confirmed on Monday that
she has resigned from three corporate boards. A person who is knowledgeable
about Whitman's political aspirations told the AP "that the 52-year-old Silicon
Valley leader is planning to run for governor in 2010, not the seat of
Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, who will be up for re-election in two years."

According to PolitickerPA.com, Chris Matthew's brother Jim thinks the journalist and MSNBC anchor will not challenge incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010: "'There is no hint of him running for office,' said Matthews . . . 'That's 1,000 percent true.' Jim Matthews, a Republican commissioner in Montgomery County,
emphasized that it's his opinion -- he didn't hear it directly out of
his brother's mouth. But he said his brother was very upbeat about
returning to "Hardball" and already had a new contract offer in hand
from the cable news network. I know there's been discussion about (a Senate run) ... but I would
be stunned beyond words if he does anything besides but look forward
tomorrow to going to work . . . I just think he's
recharged.'" Yesterday, Chris Matthews echoed his brother's sentiment, telling his staff at MS NBC Hardball that he has NO intention of taking on Specter in 2010.

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Caroline Kennedy’s popularity has taken a "major hit" as the result of herpublic campaign to be appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat:"44% of the state’s voters now say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. 33% say it’s made no difference, and 23% report now having a more favorable opinion of her. A plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all say that her efforts have caused them to view her less favorably. When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy." It looks like Kennedy's less than stellar debut as a political candidate--and the attendant negative press--has severely harmed her standing the the state. Still, several published reports say that she is likely to be named to the seat by NY Governor David Paterson.

The New York Times reports this afternoon that Governor Bill Ritter, Democrat of Colorado, is set to
announce that he’s selected Denver Schools Superintendent Michael
Bennet to replace Ken Salazar in the United States Senate. Senator Salazar, Democrat from Colorado, is up for confirmation to
be the Secretary of the Interior. The Denver Post is reporting that Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter may make the announcement as early as this Saturday.

According to the Associated Press, New York State officials with ties to Gov. David Paterson say the daughter of the late
President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New
York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, Paterson cautions
he's still looking.

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a majority of Americans believe that Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a US senator. 52% percent said the
daughter of President John F. Kennedy is qualified to serve; 42% said she is not qualified. According to CNN, Kennedy's numbers are "somewhat lower than for Hillary Clinton when she
ran for the US Senate seat from New York. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup
survey, more than 60 percent of Americans said the former first lady
was qualified." There is a gender gap in these results, as well: 57% of women believing
Kennedy is qualified; only 47% of men agree, with 46% of male respondents saying Kennedy is not
qualified. PollTrack wonders if these numbers will begin to shift way from Kennedy, possibly reflecting the increasingly negative reporting on her effort to replace Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, the growing chorus of state Democrats who question or reject her candidacy, and Kennedy's relatively poor communication with voters and her recent string of political missteps and blunders.

According to a Public Policy Polling survey, John Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, is the top choice of Colorado voters to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, recently picked as the incoming Secretary of the Interior. Still, the field of contenders still pretty open. In order of support, here are the poll's findings: Hickenlooper--23%; Rep. John Salazar (the senator's brother)--15%; House Speaker Andrew Romanoff--12%; former mayor and cabinet member Frederico Pena--11%; Rep. Diane Degette--8%; Rep. Ed Perlmutter--6%; Treasurer Cary Kennedy--2%. Hickenlooper is the top choice for Democrats, Republicans and independents, and polls strongest among White voters.

According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, New York State voters split 40% to 41% on whether Caroline Kennedy is
qualified to be a U.S. Senator, "but they expect by a 48% to 25% margin that
Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary
Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33% of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms.
Kennedy, while 29% say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod.
Another 4% pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24% want someone else and 10% are undecided . . . Kennedy leads Cuomo 42% to 27% among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30% to 30% among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31% to 27% among
upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32% to 27% while women back her
33% to 31%. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33% to 20% while Democrats back Kennedy 41% to 27% and independent voters back Cuomo 33% to 30%."

The inimitable Charlie Cook speculates that Republicans may once again be in for a rough ride in contest for US Senate seats in 2010. "If the playing field is level and no national dynamics are in play," Cook concludes, "Democrats should pick up a few more seats, but it's hard to think that
national dynamics won't be at work, one way or another. New presidents
often make missteps, and their honeymoons can end quickly. If that
happens this time, a few of the vulnerable Republican seats would
likely become less so, and a few of the Democratic seats that appear
relatively safe would come into play." Yet, Cook wonders if downturn in enthusiasm for the Republican brand will continue to haunt the party in two years: "If Republicans
are still 8 or 9 points behind in party affiliation, if their 'brand'
hasn't been repaired, and if they are still facing a competence gap --
an attribute they used to own -- this could be yet another very painful
cycle for them."

According to a new national survey, voters are skeptical of the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: Only 37% believe Caroline Kennedy is qualified
to be in the U.S. Senate and only "16% say she would be considered as Hillary
Clinton’s replacement if her last name wasn’t Kennedy." 67% have a favorable view of Kennedy; 23% have an unfavorable opinion. 37% say Kennedy is not qualified to
serve in the Senate, with 26% undecided.PollTrack cautions that this is a national survey. The numbers for New York State voters vary depending upon the survey.

Will Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and younger brother of George W. Bush, run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2010? Florida voters seem to think so according to a new poll: While president Bush is vastll unpopular in Florida, 78% of Florida voters say former
Governor Jeb Bush is likely to run. 45% believe
Bush is very likely to run and 33% say he is somewhat likely to do so.84% of Republicans believe he’ll run along with 79% of Democrats. Ca he win? Quite possibly: "Jeb Bush is viewed favorably by 60% of Florida
voters, including 39% with a Very Favorable opinion. Forty percent (40%) offer a
negative view, including 19% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Favorable opinions
are offered by 78% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats and 54% of those not
affiliated with either major party."

According a a new Research 2000/Daily Kos poll out this week, it looks like incumbent Democratic senator Ken Salazar is poised to win reeelection. In a hypothetical matchup with John Elway, former football megastar quarterback for the twice-winning Super
Bowl Broncos, Salazar wins, 49% to 38%. Research 2000 notes: "The Colorado GOP bench is thin, and a lack of top-tier credible challenger
means that Salazar, who isn't exactly the most popular senator ever (his 48-41
approval-disapproval rating is respectable, but nothing to boast about), may
have a much easier time getting reelected than might otherwise have been the
case."

According to Poltico, Chris Matthews is about to sign a new contract with MSNBC News. Does this make a run in 2010 against incumbent Reoublican senator Arlen Specter less likely? Probably, since retaining his job as a political commentaor would present a conflict of interest fot the journalist.

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters in North Carolina, Republican incumbent US Senator Richard Burr is quite vulnerable in his reelection quest in 2010. In a hypothetical matchup with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, Cooper leads Burr by a margin of 39% to 34%. The survey continues: "44% of the state’s voters approve of Cooper’s job performance with just 23% disapproving. Burr gets a 32% approval mark with 31% unhappy with his work as a Senator . . . This poll confirms what many people already thought: Roy Cooper is the strongestpotential Democratic opponent for Richard Burr in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He is just as well known statewide as the incumbent Senator, and better liked. He would be quite a formidable candidate.”

In a sign that 2010 will not be easy for Republican incumbents, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that two-term Republican U.S. Sen. George
Voinovich faces a tough reelection fight in 2010, with 36 percent wanting
to give him another term and 35 percent backing an unnamed Democratic candidate,
according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today . . . Voinovich, who
has been a fixture in Ohio politics since winning the first of two terms as
Governor in 1990, would have a potentially more difficult challenge for a third
term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Only 44 percent of voters, including a lukewarm
54 percent of Republicans, say he deserves to be reelected.

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Caroline Kennedy has the inside track with New York state voters to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: "44% say she’s their top choice, with another 24% saying she’s their second choice from a list of potential candidates. The only other potential appointee to break double figures is Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who was the top pick for 23% of respondents and the second with 35%. The other six candidates polled, including four members of Congressand two prominent local government officials, were the favored choice with anywhere from 3 to 6% of those surveyed." But a just released Marist poll would appear to contradict these numbers, indicating a tie between Cuomo and Kennedy--25% to 25%--with 26% undecided and another 24% going to other candidates.

According to CQ Politics, the Repiblican senate campaign still has an uphill battle in 2010, but the party is in better shape than in 2008 when it was forced to defend many more seats than the Democrats: In 201, "the GOP will not have the kind of steeply slanted playing
field it had to deal with this year. In the flip side of the party’s
successes in its better times of 2002, the Republicans ended up
defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. That would have made it hard
for them to hold their ground, even if the overall political atmosphere
had not been so toxic. The slate of regularly scheduled
2010 races gives the Republicans another defensive chore, though it was
not nearly as big: 19 Republican-held seats are scheduled to be up that
year to 15 Democratic-held seats. Special elections will narrow the
margin further, to 19-17, because of picks President-elect Barack Obama has made for his White House team from among his former Democratic Senate colleagues."

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . . are no better than 20-1, a source close to
the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace
Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push
Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration
source told The Post.'" Stay tuned.

ABC News reports that NY Governer David Patterson may have a surprise in store for state residents: Coroline Kennedy as its Junior Us Senastor: "Another Senator Kennedy? The crazy speculation about Hillary Clinton's
Senate seat may not be so crazy after all. A Democrat who would know tells ABC
News that New York governor David Paterson has talked to Caroline Kennedy about
taking the seat, which was once held by her uncle, Robert F. Kennedy. It’s not
exactly shocking that Paterson would reach out to one of the most highly
respected public figures in New York, but this is: Sources say Kennedy is
considering it, and has not ruled out coming to Washington to replace Hillary
Clinton in the Senate."

Contradicting some recent polling that shows Chris Matthews trailing Republican incumbent Arlen Specter in a hypothetical 2010 US Senate matchup, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll indicating that the Democrat presents a real threat to Specter: "Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially
vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey
of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just
three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of
the nation's most closely-watched Senate races." More from CQ Politics on the Rasmussen poll: "The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his
own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of
Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they
would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too."

According to Poltics PA, talk show host, Democrat Chris Matthews remains interested in challenging incumbent Republican US Seanator Arlen Specter in 2010: "Knowledgeable sources have confirmed that Matthews has discussed a
possible run for U.S. Senate with Congressman and Philadelphia Democratic City
Committee Chair Bob Brady; Treasurer-elect Rob McCord; Allegheny County
Democratic Chair Jim Burn; and Neil Oxman, Pennsylvania's premier political
consultant."A recent Quinnipiac University poll suggests that neither candidate would walk away with the race, but that Matthews was in a weaker position at this point. In the poll, Specter lead Matthews, 45% to 33%.

The departure of George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 may not end the Bush dynasty in American politics. According to sources close to former Florida governor Jeb Bush, he is considering a run for the state's US Senate seat in 2010, a seat currently held by Republican Mel
Martinez who announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection: Asked whether he was interested in running for the seat then, Bush, the younger brother of the president, "told
Politico by e-mail Tuesday night: 'I am considering it.' A source close to Bush said he'll be thoughtful and methodical about
the decision-making process. He will consider the impact a race would
have on his family and his business and whether or not the U.S. Senate
is the best forum from which to continue his advocacy for issues such
as education, immigration and GOP solutions to health care reform." <!--
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Who will replace Democrat Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator? As per MSNBC, the list is short but impressive: "Several names have been floated, including state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former popular Gov. Mario Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, U.S. Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nydia Velazquez, Jerrold Nadler, Nita Lowey(who reportedly wants to stay in the House), Steve Israel, Gregory Meeks and Louise Slaughter, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown(the city's first black mayor) and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión Jr. Even NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's and Caroline Kennedy's names have been thrown out there." Interestingly, Lowey was the front runner for the seat back in 2000, but gave up her chance at the senate once Hillary Clinton threw her hat into the ring. Public opinion polls indicate that most New York voters favor Cuomo as Clinton's replacement by a substantial margin. Appointing Cuomo may actually provide current Democratic Governor David Patteron with a real political advantage: Cuomo was rumored to be ready to oppose him in 2010. If appointed, Cuomo would instead run for the remainder of Clinton's term (her seat is up in 2012) in 2010. Clinton has given no indication that she plans to resign soon, and will most probably give up her seat upon Senate confirmation as US Secretary of State. CNN also puts to rest a rumor that been swirling around the past few days: Bill Clinton "has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate," according to his spokesman, "adding any speculation that he would be interested
is 'completely false.'"

Quinnipiac is out with an early barometer of the hypothetical 2010 Us Senate match up between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and MSNBC political commentator, Democrat Chris Matthews. The survey reports that Specter holds a 45% to 33% lead over Matthews. "Sen. Specter leads 72 - 9 percent among Republicans and 45 - 27 percent among
independent voters, while Matthews leads 55 - 25 percent among Democrats." "Who says the Republicans are dead? Sen. Arlen Specter has the highest job
approval rating of any major Pennsylvania Pol and would knock off Chris Matthews
by 12 points if the Hardball host decides to run against him," observes
(Quinnipiac assistant polling director) Clay Richards. "Matthews has been
on MSNBC wall to wall during the election season, but is a question mark for 60
percent of the voters. Specter has been relatively invisible the past year and
has a strong 56 percent favorable rating."

According to a poll released this morning by the New York Daily News, Republican Rudolph Giuliani is gaining on incumbent Democratic Governer David Patterson, who succeeded Eliot Spitzer earlier this year. In the hypothetical match up, the Republican "leads Paterson handily among Republicans (70% to 22%), independents
(54% to 37%), suburbanites (58% to 35%) and Catholics. Paterson leads strongly among Democrats (70% to 24%), in New York City (63%
to 30%), women (52% to 41%) and among blacks, Latinos, and Protestants. The two are running neck and neck among males, upstaters, and Jews."