In Depth: Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise

Many economists see an end to the downward slide in home prices over the past two years, but forecasting home prices has become more art than science, and industry experts are still reaching to define what a recovery will look like.

Data suggests that when prices do rise, they'll inch, rather than soar, and some areas won't match their pre-bubble prices for a decade, according to home price forecasts by Moody's Economy.com. It provided Forbes with a housing price forecast for the country's 40 largest metropolitan statistical areas (or metros)--geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for use in collecting statistics. The forecast predicts the percent change in home prices over one year, three years and five years, using data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In the MSAs for which Case Schiller does not publish numbers, Moody's used a weighted average of metropolitan divisions within those areas.

Moody's calculates future changes in home price by measuring both long-term demographic and economic fundamentals, like income and population changes; and changes caused by short-term supply and demand shifts.

Click through to see the Moody's Economy.com house price forecast for the 40 largest U.S. metro areas in one year, three years and five years.