Jerkoffs 2013: Sweet Merciful Crap

Well, this has never happened before. 12 weeks down with 1 to play and not a single team has clinched a spot in the Jerkoffs. Pretty amazing, all things considered. While some teams are positioned better than others, entry into the post-season is not technically a guarantee for anyone. What we do know is that we’re down to 8 teams for 6 spots. 3 teams have an 8-4 record, the other 5 are 7-5. In a moment, I’m going to run through each individual team based upon their current rank and lay out the scenarios where that team either wins their respective division (if possible) or gains wildcard entry into the Jerkoffs.

Please note, this is actually really fucking hard to do this year since about a million things can happen at this point. So, rather than repeating myself over and over again, lets agree to accept a couple of realities;

7 of 8 remaining contenders can walk away with a Division crown. C-Lion cannot make it to the top of his division thanks to his 3 Division losses and a one game deficit behind the Dazzle.

While we’re at it, let’s make it 6 since A1 can tie for the best division record in the Blacktop Seizure Division but, based upon his significantly low season long point total, he has no realistic chance of winning the second tiebreaker.

Based upon matchups, up to 7 teams can finish with a record of 8-5 or better. In order for that to happen, two of the 8-4 teams (Captain and Frenchy) would have to lose to two of the 7-5 teams they are playing (JPOWW and A1 respectively), Softness would have to beat Trombone, and C-Lion and Silverfox would have to avoid a tie game (highly probable).

Under those circumstances, Division champs would be determined by Division record first and total points second.

Wildcard entry into the Jerkoffs would be determined by total points.

You can do the math so I’m using rough numbers in this post. Standings complete with exact total points and division record are right here in the post for your reference.

There are three key matchups that will go a long way towards setting the Jerkoff field. I’m speaking, of course, about the aforementioned battles of Captain v. JPOWW, Frenchy v. A1, and C-Lion v. Silverfox. Only Softness and Dazzle are playing against non-playoff contenders this week. Wins by Captain and Frenchy would drop JPOWW and A1 to 7-6 where they would join the loser of the C-Lion/Silverfox battle and, possibly, Softness if he were to lose to Trombone. Out of this crew, A1 is most in need of a win as, as previously mentioned, he is a significant total points underdog relative to the rest of the eight team field. Now that you know the matchups to watch, let’s break down each manager’s respective chances for Division Championships and Wildcard berths.

Blacktop Seizure Division

The Captain

The Captain wins the BSD crown if he beats JPOWW in Week 13. Any other result will not work because if JPOWW beats the Captain he will have tied him in the standings and bested his division record. Others still lurk as well with various scenarios we’ll get to soon. Bottom line, Captain must win to take the BSD.

The Captain is a virtual lock to gain entry into the Jerkoffs due to his substantial total points and his 8-4 record. In the worst case scenario, 7 teams finish at 8-5. A1, at 8-5, would have to have outscore the Captain by roughly 222 points to gain a wildcard berth over him. Ipso facto, the Captain is in. This week, like all weeks in life, is all about the BSD.

Frenchy

Frenchy takes the BSD crown to the dome if he beats A1 and the Captain loses to JPOWW. That is the only scenario in which Frenchy takes the Division thanks to his 2-3 Division record. The BSD winner cannot have a Division record worse than 4-2 if he has less than 9 wins based upon the Week 13 matchups.

Like Captain, Frenchy is also a wildcard lock. If he loses to A1 in Week 13 as part of the unlikely sequence of events that leaves 7 contenders at 8-5 or better, he still will have scored more points than him. Knowing that at least one of the 8 contenders will be 7-6 after Week 13 (C-Lion/Silverfox), that keeps Frenchy in the Jerkoffs one way or another. With help, Frenchy takes the BSD. He’s playing into the postseason regardless.

JPOWW

JPOWW can take the BSD with plenty of help. For JPOWW to take the Division crown he must beat the Captain, Frenchy must lose to or tie A1, and Softness must either lose to or tie Trombone. In that scenario, JPOWW’s total points will secure the BSD crown. Even though he leads Softness in total points and has the same record as him, Softness has the better Division record at 4-1 and would take the title in the event of a tie atop the Division at 8-5.

Of the 7-5 teams, JPOWW is best positioned to gain a wildcard berth into the Jerkoffs. A win in Week 13 will cement his place in the postseason. At 8-5, he will take any total points tiebreaker as he has outscored the next highest scoring team in the league by roughly 130 points. Since we know that at least 1 team will be 7-6 (C-Lion or Silverfox), JPOWW would be able to sustain a Week 13 loss if either Softness or A1 were to lose thanks to his total points advantage. If JPOWW loses and both A1 and Softness win, JPOWW will miss the Jerkoffs despite being the highest scorer in the league.

Softness

Despite a total points disadvantage, Softness has a clearer path to the BSD crown than JPOWW. Softness will take the BSD crown with a Week 13 victory combined with losses by both the Captain and Frenchy. Softness’s Division record of 5-1, in that scenario, would clinch any tiebreaker atop the BSD.

Softness is in significant danger of missing the Jerkoffs in a wildcard scenario if he loses in Week 13 but looks relatively safe if he wins. In the worst case scenario, where Softness wins but 6 other teams have a record of 8-5 or better, A1 would have to outscore Softness by roughly 86 points to beat him in a tiebreaker. This week is essentially a win and in scenario. Here’s where it gets murky, if he loses, Softness would need A1 to lose joining the loser of C-Lion/Silverfox. At that stage, a total points tiebreaker would occur. Technically, a JPOWW loss would place him at 7-6 also however, Softness is not catching JPOWW in total points so that avenue is not realistic. Also, at this point, C-Lion and Silverfox have outscored Softness by 40-50 points overall. So, in summation, for Softness to lose and make the Jerkoffs as a wildcard entry, he would need to outscore the loser of C-Lion/Silverfox by 51 (C-Lion) or 43 (Silverfox) and he would need A1 to lose and not outscore him by (86). Stranger things have happened.

A1

A1 is in the weakest position of any of the contenders due to his poor total points performance. With a 86 point deficit behind his closest competition, it is probably safe to assume A1 can’t win any tiebreakers. That makes this week’s game incredibly important. If A1 wins in Week 13 he will gain a wildcard entry to the Jerkoffs if either JPOWW or Softness lose, joining the loser of C-Lion/Silverfox at 7-6. There is the off chance that A1 could outscore Softness by 86 or more, but it’s unlikely. If A1 loses this week, thanks to his substantial total points deficit, there is no viable path to the Jerkoffs for him due to tiebreakers.

Kenny’s Division

Dazzle

Of all managers, Dazzle has the easiest path to a Division title. Dazzle clinches the Kenny’s Division with any of the following; a Dazzle victory in Week 13, a Silverfox loss in Week 13, a Dazzle loss coupled with a Silverfox victory where Silverfox does notoutscore Dazzle by more than roughly 18 points. Essentially, Dazzle has a bunch of outs to back into the KD crown thanks to the division record tiebreaker which eliminates C-Lion from contention despite only trailing Dazzle by a game in the standings and roughly 10 points.

Like the Captain and Frenchy, Dazzle is a virtual lock to gain wildcard entry to the playoffs if he loses out on the KD crown. To lock up wildcard entry, he’ll need two of the 7-5 teams to lose or tie (there is a certainty that one will lose or tie as Silverfox is playing against C-Lion in Week 13) or in the event that 7 teams finish at 8-5 or better as described above, he must be ahead of the lowest scoring 8-5 team in total points. In that scenario, I may have mentioned earlier, that A1 would be one of the 8-5 teams. A1 would have to outscore Dazzle by approximately 147 points this week for oust Dazzle from the Jerkoffs. Dazzle is in, it’s just a question of whether or not he gets $200 and a bye week.

Silverfox

Silverfox can win the Kenny’s Division if he wins and Dazzle loses and he outscored Dazzle by roughly 18 points. Not a totally outrageous scenario, the point is, to take the KD, Silverfox needs a little help from the Old Murd Dog. Week 13 matchups between Dazzle and OMD have been historically surprising.

Silverfox can clinch a wildcard berth into the Jerkoffs with a win in Week 13 since, even in the worst case scenario where 7 teams are 8-5 or better, he will not lose in a total points tiebreaker to A1. If Silverfox loses he can still make the Jerkoffs if A1 or Softness lose and Softness does not outscore him by roughly 43 points. He cannot catch JPOWW in total points so a JPOWW loss does him no good under this scenario. Silverfox leads A1 in total points by a significant margin.

C-Lion

C-Lion cannot take the KD, he is the only remaining playoff contender technically eliminated from Division contention. He can gain a wildcard berth with a Week 13 win. I’m like a broken record here but blah blah blah 7 teams at 8-5 something something A1 didn’t score enough points to win a tiebreaker. [Copy and Paste here] If Silverfox C-Lion loses he can still make the Jerkoffs if A1 or Softness loses and Softness does not outscore him by roughly 43 51 points. He cannot catch JPOWW in total points so a JPOWW loss does him no good under this scenario. Silverfox C-Lion leads A1 in total points by a significant margin.

So there you have it all. The JFFL 2013 comes down to the last weekend. Good luck to the remaining squadrons, although, not so much luck since I’m still in the running. See some of you assholes in the Jerkoffs.