Weekly Weather: Houston hasn’t been this cold, for this long, in three decades

Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

As everyone knows Houston has experienced a remarkably cool winter, among the 10 coldest on record.

But the wild stats about this winter don’t stop there.

According to data from the National Weather Service, the city of Houston recorded five consecutive months of below-normal temperatures from October through February. And it’s all but certain this month, March, will finish with a below normal temperature as well.

Departure from normal temperature for December through February. (NOAA)

Houston has not gone six consecutive months with below-normal temperatures since 1983. So it’s been 30 years since Houston has been colder than normal for such a prolonged period of time.

Wait, there’s more. From January 2006 through December 2012 just 13 out of those 84 months recorded a below normal temperatures, or 15 percent. In the 14 months since then, eight have recorded below normal temperatures, or 57 percent.

The bottom line is that the last six months have been cold in all-time terms, but perhaps more significantly this has been the longest spell of colder-than-normal weather than Houston has experienced in three decades.

Anyway, let’s do the numbers for last week.

Date

High Temp.

Low Temp.

Average

Departure

Rainfall

Monday

63

44

54

-9

0.00

Tuesday

77

43

60

-3

0.00

Wednesday

75

57

66

+3

0.00

Thursday

76

56

66

+2

0.00

Friday

78

50

64

0

0.00

Saturday

81

65

73

+9

Trace

Sunday

72

53

63

-1

0.05

Average

76.0

52.6

63.7

+0.1

0.05 (tot.)

PRESENT

The region’s gloomy, gray weather will continue today, although there’s only a slight chance of rain.

Tuesday should be an absolutely splendid day — the nicest of the week — with ample sunshine and highs in the low 70s.

However by Tuesday night the high pressure will move off, allowing for a strong easterly wind to return, and with a fairly tight pressure gradients winds on Wednesday could gust up to 25 mph, say forecasters with the National Weather Service.

This will raise moisture levels by Wednesday and bring a good chance of rain into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, although the precise timing and intensity of showers remains unclear.

The five-day rain accumulation forecast from NOAA suggests the Houston region may get 1 inch of rain this week. (NOAA)

It looks like the region’s rain chances will fall off on Friday, which should be a warm day in the low 80s.

By Friday evening or so some forecast models bring a weak front into the area. Should this happen it would yield an absolutely gorgeous weekend, with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

FUTURE

We’re now reaching the time of year when it starts to warm up, and days with temperatures of 85 degrees or warmer become possible.

In 2013 the city recorded its first 85-degree day on March 18. This year it appears possible that we might see one on Friday, or possibly Saturday if that weak front is delayed a bit.

In any case we’re about to transition to significantly warmer weather as we get deeper into spring.

SUMMARY

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from 0 to 168,000, the number of gallons of oil that spilled into Galveston Bay after a ship and barge collided near the Texas City Dike Saturday afternoon..

My number: 117,001.

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FINE PRINT

As always, thank you to the fine professionals at the National Weather Service for the information and data that make this weekly blog entry possible. Also, bear in mind there’s always uncertainty in weather forecasting, particularly the timing and intensity of precipitation.

While much of the continental United States endured several cold snaps in January 2014, record-breaking warmth gripped Alaska. Spring-like conditions set rivers rising and avalanches tumbling.A persistent ridge of high pressure off the Pacific Coast fueled the warm spell, shunting warm air and rainstorms to Alaska instead of California, where they normally end up. The last half of January was one of the warmest winter periods in Alaska’s history, with temperatures as much as 40°F (22°C) above normal on some days in the central and western portions of the state, according to Weather Underground’s Christopher Bart. The all-time warmest January temperature ever observed in Alaska was tied on January 27 when the temperature peaked at 62°F (16.7°C) at Port Alsworth. Numerous other locations—including Nome, Denali Park Headquarters, Palmer, Homer, Alyseka, Seward, Talkeetna, and Kotzebue—all set January records.

The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This marks the 37th consecutive year (since 1976) that the yearly global temperature was above average.

This will raise moisture levels by Wednesday and bring a good chance of rain into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, although the precise timing and intensity of showers remains unclear.

I don’t care when they happen, I just care that they do happen! We are still fairly short of moisture and could use another few weeks of rain to bring us back to normal.

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from 0 to 168,000, the number of gallons of oil that spilled into Galveston Bay after a ship and barge collided near the Texas City Dike Saturday afternoon.

Given that spilling oil into the bay is a bad thing, shouldn’t we read this as an inverse scale with the higher number being worse?