OTTAWA — The naming rights for Frank Clair Stadium are worth several times what the city thought because previous estimates didn’t count on all the events the stadium’s expected to host or all the people who’ll see it from the neighbouring shopping area, the city says.

In the latest financial forecasts for the redevelopment of Lansdowne Park, which includes the crumbling football stadium and the Civic Centre hockey arena beneath it, the estimated value of the naming rights has gone from the $15.8 million councillors were told last February to $50.2 million.

The difference is a remarkably convenient number, cancelling out almost exactly a decline in the money expected from leases to retailers moving into new storefronts at Lansdowne after the park is renovated.

The difference caught several councillors’ attention when city officials released a big Lansdowne update Tuesday night. “The naming rights for the stadium — I’m very curious to know where they got that number from,” said River Councillor Maria McRae. Maybe they know someone, maybe someone’s called and indicated. I’m not sure. Because that’s certainly changed.”

The explanation, essentially, is that the previous forecast missed a whole lot of things.

“The naming rights values were increased based mainly on the fact that the overall components of the project consisted of not only the stadium and arena but also the mixed-use retail area (excluding the urban park and public space). Under this scenario sponsors would derive increased sponsorship and branding value versus earlier estimates based only on the stadium and arena. The consultants undertook extensive research and reviewed comparable venues across North America with an emphasis on Canada,” wrote city spokesman Michael FitzPatrick in an email.

City manager Kent Kirkpatrick said he has asked Ottawa Sports and Entertainment lead partner Roger Greenberg to be prepared to provide a presentation on the naming rights at the committee meeting.

Greenberg was unavailable to speak to the Citizen on Wednesday, as he was Tuesday after the new information was released, because he’s observing Yom Kippur. The Citizen had scheduled an interview with OSEG vice-president Bronwen Heins on Wednesday afternoon, but Greenberg ordered it cancelled.

Kirkpatrick said OSEG has, since February, spoken to consultants about the potential for naming rights revenue and used the information to develop projections. In February, Kirkpatrick reported that the $15.8-million figure was based on discussions with sponsorship consultants as well.

“It sounds like a big number and it is a big number, but it’s important to remember that that’s over 30 years, and that’s an inflated dollar, so you’re looking at something like a million dollars a year in 2015 and then over the 30 years it inflates up to an amount that over the 30 years gives you the $50 million,” Kirkpatrick said Wednesday.

The amount includes all naming rights, he said, using the level of naming, sponsorship and advertising seen inside Scotiabank Place as an example. Mathematically, it assumes an inflation rate of about 3.3 per cent a year.

“I believe it’s a reasonable estimate,” Kirkpatrick said, adding he’d spoken to the consultant involved. The naming rights do not involve any of the site’s “public realm,” he said, including the Aberdeen Pavilion, Horticulture Building and the large urban park.

Neither the city nor OSEG would identify the consultant who came up with the higher figure, on the grounds that the private developers are now looking for someone to actually manage the sale of the rights and other companies might not want to bid on the work if they knew who came up with the estimate.

The length of the contract makes an important difference. The naming rights to the Air Canada Centre in Toronto were worth $30 million over 20 years, or $1.5 million a year. The rights to BMO Field in Toronto went for $2.37 million a year. Telus offered about $1.75 million a year over 20 years for the naming rights to B.C. Place stadium in Vancouver (plus more for other sponsorship rights). Ottawa is smaller but not that much smaller.

“Obviously it’s an ambitious figure that they’re looking for, but when you look at the things that have happened either in this city or other jurisdictions with respect to naming of sporting facilities, it’s within the realm of possibility,” Mayor Jim Watson said. Scotiabank Place’s naming rights went for about $1.3 million a year, for instance. “It’s also, above and beyond the naming rights, there are other opportunities in terms of the arena, the signage, the advertising both in and outside the stadium, on the scoreboard, all of that is part of the naming-rights package.”

At the other end of the scale, the Ottawa 67’s have raffled a year’s worth of the naming rights to the Civic Centre to businesses willing to pay $1,000 for tickets. In the last few years it’s successively been renamed the Urbandale Centre, the Rona Centre and the J. Benson Cartage Centre.

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