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Mansfield’s Lahm Airport has received 1.42 inches of rain so far this month, but many locations across Richland County have only measured about half that, or less.

That will most likely change later Thursday, although the cold front that will bring us a likelihood of rain and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, isn’t behaving entirely normally just yet. As of this writing the boundary was stuck over northern Michigan and stationary. If it’s going to move through north central Ohio by this evening as forecast it better get moving fast.

An outlying computer forecast model actually has the front laying up over Lake Erie, which wouldn’t surprise me. But the official expectation is for it to pass by here this evening, timed perfectly with the heating of the day to drop some energetic precipitation.

Some rain managed to percolate over Lake Erie Thursday morning, and with humidity levels this high it can be expected to show up elsewhere as the day moves along. But with not a single leaf stirring on the trees this very calm morning, I don’t know how much we can expect in the way of instability.

Bottom line, keep your eyes on the weather radar today if you’re concerned about getting caught in rough weather. Afternoon temperatures should once again top out in the mid-80s, unless cloud cover holds us back – and it very well may.

In the wake of the cold front, assuming it moves through here today, it will feel noticeably cooler and drier Friday, with a forecast high temperature around 78 degrees under sunny skies. Saturday should feature a repeat performance before we gradually start warming up again by Sunday.

Looking ahead to next week, summer is showing no signs of departing any time soon, as opposed to a couple weeks ago when it seemed like it was already over. As warm as it’s been this week, it should be even warmer next week; we may even see 90 degrees.

Meanwhile, out in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, July went in the books as the 16th month in a row without either an El Nino or La Nina, defined as anomalous warming or cooling of the sea-surface temperatures there, respectively. These neutral conditions are expected to last through the fall.

Neutral status with these large-scale atmospheric patterns is hardly unusual, but this streak of 16 months kind of is.

Below are the weather statistics for Wednesday, Aug. 21, at my location 4 miles north-northwest of Fredericktown, Ohio: