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USDJPY – how to tell a trend line support will break

USDJPY is now perched at a strong trend line support. This trend line is also a equidistance channel support.

Change in Sentiment

From boxes, we can see there is a change in sentiment from bullish to bearish. The bearish expansion in h4 also resulted in a WR of a D1 1234. Now price is supported by a channel low. Key question is whether price will break below this equidistant channel support. Clue lies in lower timeframe

USDJPY perched at ed channel support

USDJPY lower timeframe

In H1, we could see a bearish expansion now. Price retrace into various 1234 count possible seen below.

We need a move below to trigger either one of the 1234 count, at the same time, there must be a H4 close below the trend line support.

Thus, trigger in higher timeframe is important.

Various count of 1234 on usdjpy

If the white 1234 count is proven true, then below 10140 (recent price low) confirms the white 1234 (note that point 4 has not been formed yet).

It is also important to give plenty of buffer for a valid break, therefore, if we add a 20 pips buffer for a true breakpoint, then below 10120 provides a stronger basis for that ED channel to give way, and for price to see some support at 100 and 9950.

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