Make no
doubt about it, American Catholics like their leaders. In a 2012 Pew Forum
poll, 82 percent said they were satisfied with the leadership of their local
priest and 83 percent approved of the leadership of U.S. nuns. Additionally, 74
percent of Catholics approved of the pope, while 70 percent approved of the
U.S. bishops.

But,
despite overall approval of their leaders, American Catholics do not hold to
the church teachings which these leaders propound. More than 90 percent of married
Catholic women of child-bearing age use or have used birth control (and thus so
have 90 percent of married Catholic men), even though church teachings forbid
it. Similarly, 54 percent of Catholics approve of gay marriage, even as the
pope and the bishops rail against it.

At the
same time, the American Catholic Church is changing. While the overall
membership of the church is increasing due to Hispanic immigration, the
traditional “white, non-Hispanic” membership (as the pollsters call it) has
been declining for years. Fully one in 10 adult Americans are former Catholics;
40 percent of those born and raised in the church no longer belong. The vast
majority of these cite the church’s teachings on sex and gender, ranging from
abortion and homosexuality to birth control to the church’s treatment of women,
as the reason for their exit.

With Pope
Benedict stepping down, the challenges of the American church facing any new
pope are clear. There is a great deal of dissatisfaction among American
Catholics over the church’s stands on women and sexuality. To revitalize the
American Catholic Church, something needs to change.

Is that
likely? Probably not.

American
Catholics constitute only 7 percent of the global Catholic Church. Even if you
add them to European Catholics, where the same gender and sexual issues are in
contention, that totals less than one-third of the world’s Catholics. More than
two-thirds of Catholics live in Latin America, Africa and Asia. And Catholic
membership in Africa and Asia is growing rapidly.

While
European and North American societies are pulling the church toward greater
freedom in sexual matters, the societies in Africa, Asia and Latin America tug
Catholicism in the opposite direction. The vast majority of nations in these
regions consist of traditional societies, at least with regard to the roles of
women and men. A few nations in South America, with Brazil being the most
prominent, are trying to Westernize by relaxing restrictions in these areas,
but they are noticeable as exceptions.

A far
more important dynamic appears in Africa and Asia, where Christianity exists
alongside Islam and, in some countries, is overshadowed by it. As we have
become aware in recent years, Islam has strong traditions about the subordinate
role of women in the public sphere. Many countries even have “morality police”
who enforce traditions of modest clothing and veiling. Islam also is strongly
anti-homosexual.

For their
own protection and the safety of their members, all Christian churches in these
countries have pursued conservative social agendas with a vengeance. Two
African nations are in the process of enacting legislation punishing homosexual
activity with the death penalty, with Nigeria and Uganda in the lead. They do
not want Islamic vigilantes targeting Christians as morally lax.

The
Anglican Church, also a global church with a strong presence in North America
and Africa, has found that American advances in gender equality have so angered
African Anglicans that the church seems likely to split. Whereas Americans have
ordained both female and gay bishops, the African branches refuse to even
consider women as ministers, let alone admit the existence of gay priests.

This same
dynamic is playing out in the global Catholic Church as well. The pressures from
the largest and fastest growing regions of Catholicism suggests that American
Catholics will see little reform or liberalizing of the church’s teaching on
sexuality and the place of women in the church.

As
Benedict has said, perhaps a smaller, more unified church lies in Catholicism’s
future. If the present dynamics play out as expected, this will certainly be
the case for American Catholicism.