Notes from today's Dodgers game: The over/under on today's game is 5.5 (O -117, U 107) is the 5th lowest over/under of the season so far from Vegas. According to the simulator it is the 27th lowest. The simulator says the OVER will hit 50.14% of the time, making this a very fair line.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Recently, Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs authored an article where he listed the 2011 All-Flub Teams. Steve included both an NL and AL team of players who are the kings of underachievers from both leagues. In the article Steve posed the question of which of these two teams would win a head to head matchup. I volunteered to run the two teams through my baseball simulator to find out. I ran two simulations, one with each league's flops as the home team. I selected Sean O'Sullivan as the American League's top flop pitcher and Armando Galarraga as the National League's starting pitcher. Each matchup was simulated 100K times. I also used neutral park factors for all of the simulated games. Below are the results as well as some of the stats.

Away

Home

Starting Pitchers

Favorite

Win Probability

Total Runs

American

National

S.O'Sullivan vs A.Galarraga

National

51.567%

9.69

National

American

A.Galarraga vs S.O'Sullivan

American

56.979%

9.71

Results: The simulator thinks that the American League team is slightly better. If you average the win probability of the away/home series the American League wins 52.706% of the time, with right around 9.7 runs scoring on average. Below are some of the box score stats taken from the matchup where the National League was the home team.

Pitchers Boxscores

Name

IP

SO

BB

Hits

HR

PC

FIP

Sean O'Sullivan

5.697

3.025

1.982

6.841

0.748

91.555

4.888

Jon Rauch

0.445

0.343

0.101

0.465

0.051

6.82

3.819

Mike Gonzalez

0.413

0.364

0.168

0.432

0.063

6.791

4.641

Daniel Schlereth

0.67

0.573

0.352

0.721

0.108

11.458

5.158

Jason Berken

0.419

0.317

0.144

0.471

0.071

6.775

4.912

Adam Russell

0.699

0.365

0.324

0.805

0.058

11.53

4.632

Joe Nathan

0.343

0.298

0.119

0.365

0.052

5.551

4.484

Andy Sonnanstine

0.018

0.009

0.006

0.022

0.003

0.286

5.647

Armando Galarraga

5.808

3.164

2.146

7.073

0.621

94.435

4.609

Ryan Franklin

0.409

0.3

0.085

0.467

0.061

6.337

4.298

Michael Dunn

0.429

0.445

0.193

0.414

0.044

7.149

3.8

Pat Neshek

0.712

0.564

0.367

0.784

0.087

12.131

4.745

Sean Burnett

0.483

0.351

0.168

0.535

0.045

7.771

3.996

Miguel Batista

0.97

0.637

0.46

1.122

0.086

16.277

4.461

John Grabow

0.354

0.228

0.158

0.42

0.044

5.916

4.856

Aneury Rodriguez

0.007

0.005

0.002

0.008

0.001

0.114

4.366

Hitters Boxscore

Name

AB

Hits

H1

H2

H3

HR

RBI

BB

SO

wOBA

BABIP

Juan Pierre

4.57

1.406

1.138

0.17

0.039

0.06

0.399

0.42

0.371

0.343

0.325

Chone Figgins

4.389

1.368

0.959

0.324

0.02

0.064

0.466

0.406

0.607

0.357

0.351

Alex Rios

4.457

1.374

0.918

0.323

0.019

0.114

0.59

0.279

0.54

0.354

0.331

Justin Morneau

4.2

1.27

0.773

0.327

0.011

0.16

0.673

0.481

0.588

0.379

0.322

Adam Dunn

3.923

1.013

0.497

0.29

0.004

0.221

0.694

0.651

1.178

0.375

0.314

David Murphy

3.962

1.218

0.813

0.237

0.02

0.148

0.601

0.491

0.589

0.382

0.332

Orlando Cabrera

4.08

1.168

0.778

0.297

0.013

0.081

0.503

0.221

0.47

0.327

0.308

Cliff Pennington

3.866

1.092

0.754

0.239

0.036

0.063

0.449

0.325

0.64

0.331

0.325

Jeff Mathis

3.785

0.915

0.594

0.238

0.006

0.077

0.429

0.305

0.711

0.295

0.28

Mike Cameron

4.31

1.245

0.694

0.375

0.043

0.133

0.497

0.381

0.615

0.36

0.312

Ryan Spilborghs

4.129

1.226

0.76

0.293

0.017

0.157

0.538

0.442

0.671

0.371

0.324

Aubrey Huff

4.032

1.151

0.719

0.246

0.029

0.158

0.56

0.509

0.549

0.368

0.299

Chris Johnson

4.157

1.231

0.766

0.317

0.031

0.118

0.589

0.23

0.733

0.348

0.337

Raul Ibanez

3.88

1.132

0.672

0.272

0.028

0.16

0.614

0.447

0.623

0.374

0.314

Casey McGehee

3.832

1.113

0.69

0.28

0.004

0.139

0.561

0.331

0.548

0.356

0.31

Bill Hall

3.761

1.037

0.59

0.298

0.034

0.115

0.498

0.296

0.697

0.343

0.313

Yuniesky Betancourt

3.761

1.067

0.699

0.242

0.034

0.093

0.464

0.187

0.364

0.329

0.295

Dioner Navarro

3.473

0.918

0.592

0.227

0.019

0.081

0.398

0.373

0.493

0.33

0.289

And here is a bar chart showing how the run totals are distributed. The x-axis the total runs scored in the game and the y-axis is how many occurrences this happened. As you can tell from the chart a run total of 7 and 9 runs is the most common occurrence.