UW's Chen to Use Supercomputer to Model Seismic Events to Improve Warning System

June 6, 2012 — When Po Chen
talks about lives lost in recent, major seismic events -- such as the 2008
earthquake in Sichuan, China, and the 2011 tsunami off the coast of Japan -- he
slowly shakes his head.

"I started to study seismology as an undergraduate student
in China, where there are very high seismic hazards," says Chen, a University
of Wyoming School of Energy Resources associate professor of geology and geophysics. "Buildings are very
poorly constructed there. When earthquakes occur, a lot of damage happens, and
lots of people die."

The Sichuan quake claimed about 70,000 lives, while the
Japan tsunami killed about 19,000. The Japan disaster also raised serious
questions about nuclear safety in that country after damage to the Fukushima
Dai-ichi nuclear plant set off a meltdown of the nuclear reactor there.

Chen is conducting research he hopes will provide precious seconds
or maybe minutes to improve earthquake warning systems, which could be the
difference in possibly saving thousands of lives. And the NCAR-Wyoming
Supercomputing Center (NWSC) will play
a key role in his research.

Specifically, the supercomputer will provide more detailed
imaging of Chen's computer models of underground seismic activity -- imaging that may provide clues that could lead to earlier warnings of seismic
activity.

State-of-the-art earthquake warning systems, such as those in
Japan, currently provide information only "a few seconds" ahead of seismic
events, he says. The warning time depends upon how far away you are from the
epicenter, Chen says.

"If you are far away from the epicenter, you may have more
time. If you are closer to the epicenter, there may be cases the strong shaking
comes ahead of any warning," he explains.

"The supercomputer will give me a much better image of the
underground structure to give me a better prediction of seismic waves," Chen
says. "We can do our best to better prepare and understand when seismic
activity is highest. For those regions with very high seismic hazards, you can
build stronger buildings."

Such specific detail might have helped victims of the Japan
tsunami move to higher ground earlier. While people there heard the warning
sirens, they did not react quickly because they assumed the large seawall built
to hold back tsunamis would, as it had in the past, be effective, Chen says.

"This time, the water wave was much higher. The wall didn't
really have an effect," Chen says. "If they had this kind of (computer)
accuracy, more lives may have been saved."

While a doctoral student at the University of Southern
California, Chen felt a few earthquakes himself in Los Angeles. The most
serious registered a fairly mild magnitude of 4.5, he says. He was luckier than
some.

"One of my graduate students had family members and friends
die in Sichuan (earthquake)," Chen says. "It's a realistic hazard. It motivates
us to work on these programs."

To conduct his seismic earthquake research, Chen says he has
received approximately $300,000 combined from the National Science Foundation
(NSF), the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake
Center.

"Countries there cannot do any actual underground tests.
They are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO),"
Chen says. "Our work is to help the CTBTO detect illegal nuclear explosions. If
there is a test, there is a 99 percent chance it is happening underground. Nuclear
tests will cause seismic activity."

China, India, Pakistan and North Korea are countries in that
region that possess nuclear weapons. Of those, only China has signed the CTBTO
agreement. However, China has not ratified its agreement, according to the CTBTO
website.

Nuclear radiation exposure can cause leukemia, as well as
breast, lung and thyroid cancer, according to the American Cancer Society. For
his research in Eurasia, Chen has received $200,000.

"One of the reasons I came here (UW) was to use the supercomputer.
It's very important to my own research," says Chen, who estimates his work will
require 20 million core hours on the supercomputer.

To put that in perspective, imagine 20 million people
working on a laptop or desk computer simultaneously for one hour.

Chen says the NWSC provides an opportunity for students
to receive training in high-performance computing. Five UW graduate students
are assisting Chen with his research.

The NWSC is the result of a partnership among the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); the
University of Wyoming; the state of Wyoming; Cheyenne LEADS; the Wyoming
Business Council; Cheyenne Light, Fuel and Power; and the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science
Foundation (NSF).

The NWSC will contain some of the world's most powerful
supercomputers (1.5 petaflops, which is equal to 1.5 quadrillion computer
operations per second) dedicated to improving scientific understanding of
climate change, severe weather, air quality and other vital atmospheric science
and geo-science topics. The center also will house a premier data storage (11
petabytes) and archival facility that holds irreplaceable historical climate
records and other information.

Photo:Po Chen, a UW associate professor of geology and geophysics,
will use the supercomputer in Cheyenne to model major seismic events. Chen's goal
is to create models that offer more detailed clues that can potentially lead to
improved warning systems for earthquakes.