China the winner from the Trump-Kim deal

By Jacinta Keast

Amid the many unknowns and unknowables of the Trump-Kim Singapore agreement one thing is certain: it represents a strengthening of China’s position in north-east Asia.

A Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence System, or Thaad, test. Credit:US Department of Defence

China has clearly been concerned with North Korea's increasingly belligerent behaviour in the region; President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held two meetings with Kim Jong-un in China this year. North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal has increased the need for US military presence on the Korean peninsula and Japan. In particular, the deployment of THAAD, an anti-ballistic missile system, to South Korea last March, was seen by Beijing as eroding its nuclear deterrent capability and as a policy of US containment of China in Northeast Asia.

Loading

The most salient gain for China is the weakening of US power in the region. In an unprecedented move, Trump announced that the US would cease military exercises in the peninsula, the next of which is scheduled for August. He also has clearly indicated that withdrawing US troops from South Korea was on the table for the future. By doing this, he also weakens South Korea and Japan’s relative power in the region.

Advertisement

Recent analysis by Chinese scholars and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs both indicate that Beijing foresees a strengthened role for China as a strategic powerbroker in the Trump-Kim agreement. Lü Chao, a Korean studies academic at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said that, “China’s role is that of an intermediary, a coordinator, a supervisor, and a conciliator”.

The US has had to depend on China to implement UN economic sanctions on North Korea. In light of better relations, China may relax these. On Tuesday, an MFA spokesman indicated that “sanctions on North Korea should be adjusted depending on the situation and to the extent North Korea has fulfilled the UN resolutions”. Thus, in the ensuing months, both China and North Korea stand to gain power in the region as cross-border trade resumes.

President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.Credit:AP

Still, the paltry details of the Trump-Kim agreement, and past experience with failed negotiations with North Korea means China's strategic planners are not yet filled with optimism. Notwithstanding the possibility that North Korea may renege on the agreement, it is incredibly hard to predict how long denuclearisation may take, and how that decision may change North Korean society and politics. China remains rightly concerned about the deleterious effect instability in North Korea may have on its territorial sovereignty. The ensuing chaos would likely drive millions of refugees across the porous North Korea-Chinese border.

Beijing is undoubtedly pleased that US power may be weakening in the region. It will, however, be watching the planned follow up meeting on implementing the Singapore agreement closely to see if the North Korea-US relationship has truly entered a new normal.

Jacinta Keast is a member of the Global Editorial Team of Young China Watchers and a Westpac Bicentennial Foundation Scholar.