2017-OCT to 2018-FEB:
All UN states have signed the Paris Agreement.
Government report contradicts the President.
Comment by
the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Temperature records broken.

Earth in Fire

1

2017-OCT & NOV: Two countries join the Paris Agreement:

During 2016, only two countries in the UN had refused to join the agreement:

Nicaragua: Although government officials are convinced that global warming is happening and that it is caused by human activity, they refused to join the agreement. Their objection was because it is based on countries making voluntary pledges. There are no penalties if these pledges are not met. They wanted a tougher, compulsory, and more ambitious agreement.

Syria: The meetings that led up to the Agreement was held during the the heaviest fighting in the long-standing civil conflict in this country. Also, members of the government are under European and U.S. sanctions and could not freely travel internationally to attend meetings. 2

Unfortunately, during:

2017-JUN, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he was starting the multi-year process of withdrawing the country from the Paris Agreement.

However, on a positive note:

2017-OCT, Nicaragua signed the agreement. 3

2017-NOV: Syrian representatives announced at the COP 23 UN climate summit that they had signed the Agreement. 4

This means that as of 2017-NOV, all of the states in the U.N. had signed the Paris Agreement, but the U.S. was in the process of withdrawl.

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During his candidacy and his presididency, President Trump has denied the existence of global warming, calling it a hoax created by the Chinese, motivated by their desire to damage U.S. companies financially.

For example, during a radio interview in 2015, he said:

"I’m not a believer in man-made global warming. It could be warming, and it’s going to start to cool at some point. ... Unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather. I believe there’s change, and I believe it goes up and it goes down, and it goes up again. And it changes depending on years and centuries, but I am not a believer, and we have much bigger problems." 5

There is an essay on this website that contains graphs, extending over many years, of the world's atmospheric temperature, earth's surface temperature, glacier shrinkage, extent of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic, and the rise in sea level over time. They prove that global warming is actually happening. Further, a measurement of the Sun's energy output shows that it is currently dropping, and thus cannot be the cause of the warming. The graph showing the rise in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) level in the atmosphere identifies the main cause. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. As a NASA report states:

"Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth's surface. This heat is radiated back toward space. Most of the outoing heat is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules and re-emitted in all directions. ... [This warms] the surface of the Earth and the lower atmosphere. 6

Although CO2 is the main culprit, other gasses contribute to the greenhouse effect to a lesser degree. They include Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Methane (CH4).

As the title of the NASA report says, greenhouse gasses create an insulating "blanket around the Earth" that retains heat. 6

A mandate by Congress requires that a study be made of climate change every four years, that it be peer-reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences, and that it be released to the public. On 2017-NOV-03, the Trump administration released the latest "Climate Science Special Report."

The study says, in part:

"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.

In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor." 5

Ann Carlson, a Professor of Environmental Law at UCLA, was asked whether there has been any previous occasion when a federally mandated report contradicted the established policy of a U.S. administration. She responded:

"I can’t think of another circumstance where a report coming out of the administration completely contradicts the positions of cabinet officials and the president himself. There is no nuance here: the report concludes -- consistent with the overwhelming scientific evidence -- that humans are the dominant cause of climate change and yet the administration either flat out denies the connection or completely minimizes it (except for a bit of finessing in confirmation hearings)."

Raj Shah, a spokesperson for the White House, said:

"The climate has changed and is always changing. As the Climate Science Special Report states, the magnitude of future climate change depends significantly on ‘remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate’ [to greenhouse gas emissions]."

This is a very important development, because getting the U.S. Government to pay attention and respond responsibly to climate change is a three step process:

1: To admit that climate change is happening.

2. To admit that climate change is primarily caused by human activities -- notably the burning of fossil fuels.

3. To do attack the problem by lowering the emission rate of greenhouse gasses.

Shah has apparently admitted that the first is true. If the administration can admit that human activity is the cause, then the third and final step will be do do somthing about the problem.

Don't hold your breath.

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2017-DEC: End-of-year statement by the Union of Concerned Scientists:

As part of their year-end fund raising campaign, the group quoted possible predictions in the future under President Trump:

An additional 3,500 premature deaths a year if President Trump fully repeals the Clean Power Plan.

$5 billion in subsidies to ensure profits for owners of coal-fired power plants, if the Department of Energy implements its recently announced plan.

25 percent cut to the funding of the nation's clean air and water watchdog, the Environmental Protection Agency -- if its Administrator... Scott Pruitt gets his way.

An increase in the number of appeals to the Union's Science Protection Project, seeking confidential legal advice on preventing political interference in science at their agencies. More than 10 have already reached out by the end of 2017.

2018-FEB-19: Temperature records expected to be broken in Toronto, Canada:

There have been many statements in the media that are similar to following type. However, this one caught our attention because Toronto is just upwind from our location.

Environment Canada issued a special weather statement predicting that daytime high temperatures during the early part of the week of FEB-18 will reach +5 degrees Celsius (or 41º F). The high temperature on FEB-20 could reach +15 degrees Celsius (or 59º F). This will cause rapid melting of snow drifts, flooded roads, and flooded basements. 7

More developments are inevitable.

The problems aren't going to go away soon.

References used:

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