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Tuesday, 11 March 2014

1. 2014 Season Starts This Weekend (and next)

23 MAR:
This week is done for the FMITL players, and the match-ups have finished like this.

The last game (Hawks by 48) broke the deadlock for the FMI and TheHolyBoot, with the Boot scoring a bonus point as well.

Over in the practice matches for Div.2, SgtButane also got the bonus, but the match-up was done well over beforehand. When it comes to the real stuff though, those 2 points are important in the for/against calculations.

If you players have any more questions, fire away. Its all real next week.

BONUS POINTS:
Bonus point for top tipping this week to;

Also next round - the FMITL League Cup kicks into action... thinking caps on teams!

TABLES:

With Div 2 having only practice games, there are no tables for them. The Div 1 season is well away though, and with all matches producing results and not draws we have the table as below.

Early days, and much of the season to come...

Additionally, the layout has changed slightly... On the right hand side column, we have the usual 'other' awards, for good and accurate tipping, etc
On the left side bar, we now have both D1 and D2 tables, plus a new feature, the MAPE table. This is a calculation of the deviation of each players margin tips from the actual, as an 'absolute' value. That is, if you tip a team to win by 11 points and they actually lose by 19, then your deviation is 30. These are averaged and tables. The lowest number indicates better accuracy.
Thanks to new player @Carlo_Monty_AFL for that idea.

Let me know if that makes sense.

20 MAR:
Here are all the remaining tips for round 1 games.
And again... Black (positive) numbers match with the black text noting you have tipped the home team by that margin.Red (negative) numbers match with the red text noting you have tipped the away team by that margin.

The Div 1 'matches that really count' this week...

The Div 2 'meh, practice... yeah whatever' tips...

Game on!

17 MAR:
UPDATE:
Current scores mid way thru the round are as below.

Once again, the remaining games to be tipped are:

Geelong -v- Adelaide
Hawthorn -v- Brisbane Lions

Still plenty of points on the table (max 6), so all games live!

All I need from you guys is your winning team and a margin.

DM these to @FMITipsters (preferred option), or email to tkyc.mail@gmail.com.

Dead line to tips in is before 19th MAR - Wednesday Midnight

14 MAR:
Its a new season with 12 new players, meaning the spreadsheet needed a whole transformation over the off season. And as much as I have tried to iron out bugs, the proof is in getting it going properly with real data.
The new spreadsheet transformation means the numbers you will see will be formatted differently to the 2013 posts (e.g. this). Primarily, this is to save time and effort in producing the info for you and the blog.

The new format below has players identifies by an abbreviated form of your twitter handle, and then your margin selection.
Black (positive) numbers match with the black text noting you have tipped the home team by that margin.Red (negative) numbers match with the red text noting you have tipped the away team by that margin.

So, here are the tips from players in Div 1 for their opening match of the season.

And the Div 2 practice round has been tipped as below.

Note, only this weeks matches are listed, as you can still modify tips up until Wednesday midnight for the last two games (as a special modified lock-out deadline for split rounds).

Hope the above makes sense... ask away on twitter if you need more info.

Good tipping and good luck!

11 MAR:EDIT:Deadline this week for first 3 games is 13th MAR - Thursday Midnight.Last two games can be tipped before 19th MAR - Wednesday Midnight

OK FMI Tipsters, we are finally underway.

First... some resolution.
Given the time restrictions, there is no scope to propose and discuss further options around scoring.
Most positive feedback has been around the reduction in the bonus points from 2 awarded to 1 point, and the introduction of an additional bonus for the exact margin tip.
These changes will be implemented.

Also there was mixed feedback about widening the window to 6pts either side of the actual margin. While widening the window gives more players the opportunity to score more, it also lessens the imperative for accurate forecasting.
As we have a few more players this year using computer modelling, we think the accuracy factor should remain a key plank in the game, therefore we will retain last years bonus window of 3 points either side of the actual result.

So, the summary of scoring.
a) if you tip the winner correctly and are closer on the margin than your opponent - award 1 point
b) if you are also within the bonus window (+/- inclusive of the actual) - award 1 bonus point
c) if you also predicted the exact margin - award 1 bonus point
d) if both players are equally away from the correct margin (or on the correct margin), the 1 point from a0 and the bonus points from b) and c) are awarded to both players.

Now back to the action... here are the randomly selected games to be tipped this weekend...