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Oil Spoils, VIX Fixes

Yesterday’s daily post’s title said it all: timing is everything. Yet, I had no idea the gratification would be so instant when I posted the recommendation to short oil at 9:35AM.

CL is at or very close to the top of a long-term channel that could put an end to any further escapades… The SMA100 [51.11] is obviously an important pivot point. I’d want to be short as long as CL is below it.

By 10:30, CL had finished backtesting the SMA100 and was on its way toward our targets. I dallied for a moment at a price level that would have satisfied the bulls, and then plunged to our secondary targets — registering a 6.8% decline off its earlier highs.

As exciting as it was to hit a jackpot like that, there was something troubling going on in equity-land. Stocks, usually hypersensitive to moves in oil prices, were barely budging. They were successfully pinned by VIX, which was moving steadily lower in order to protect SPX’s breakout.