These outlooks are produced by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and are based on a blend of statistical and modeling forecast products and expert opinion. Statistical forecasts use observations of the sequence and size of climate variations in the past to give clues to future variations. Mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans predict near future conditions using our fundamental knowledge of climate system processes and current conditions as a starting point, in a way quite similar to weather forecasting. In both cases, one cannot predict the weather for a single day in the distant future. Instead, climate forecasts give the chances for certain variations to occur in the next 30 or 90 days, or further into the future.