Fiscal cliff: President Obama's legacy trap

President Barack Obama hopes — expects, really — that ’13 will be his lucky number, a year to cement his historical legacy and reap the benefits of an economy on the cusp of real revival.

That expectation, as much as anything, explains how Obama approached the fiscal cliff and why he opted for compromise over confrontation. The president, eyes fixed on history, always viewed the fight as an obstacle, not a destination, a thing to be gotten past on his way to breaking the historical pattern of weak, scandal-scarred and anticlimactic second-term presidencies.

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Obama: Cliff deal 'just one step'

Video: Obama: Deal in sight

But the endless battle over the budget — new fights over the debt ceiling and automatic spending cuts loom in a matter of weeks — could become a legacy trap for Obama, robbing him of precious leverage to redefine his relationship with Republicans on terms more favorable to an ambitious second-term agenda, scholars of the presidency say.

“People don’t queue up in lines to see the pens for a budget deal under glass, or ‘Hey, I just cut this deal with Boehner,’” says presidential historian Douglas Brinkley.

“Presidents are remembered for the big things. FDR did Social Security. Truman created the CIA. There’s Eisenhower and the highway system. Kennedy and the moon,” Brinkley added. “So, it’s going to be Obama and what? Obamacare, that’s the big one, and killing Bin Laden. There’s room for one more big item. What will it be? Immigration? Climate change? It won’t be deficits or the fiscal cliff.”

The White House is casting the potential fiscal deal as a major victory because it forces Republicans to turn their backs on a two-decade policy of opposing all tax increases, even those on the wealthiest Americans, which is a “big win,” in the words of one West Wing adviser.

For his part, Obama said Monday, “If we’re going to be serious about deficit reduction and debt reduction, then it’s going to have to be a matter of shared sacrifice — at least as long as I’m president. And I’m going to be president for the next four years, I think…” he said with a widening smile on Monday.

The challenge for a president unusually attuned to his place in history is how to manage fights like the cliff without being diverted by them, and how to suppress the GOP challenge without it becoming a major drain of his time, popular good will and power.

“The question is whether he’s willing to use the leverage he has to get a better deal. He has a chance to make history here,” said Jared Bernstein, a former adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, reflecting the mixed emotions of many nervous progressives watching the cliff talks from the sidelines. “Standing up to them would not only be a gift to the country, but a big part of his legacy.”

One staffer for a senior Senate Democrat, summing up the view of several other aides interviewed by POLITICO, called the potential deal a “cave,” and warned that Obama’s Monday afternoon campaign-style event ahead of the final deal was a “Leon Lett moment” — a reference to the Dallas Cowboys lineman who fumbled the ball while celebrating a touchdown short of the goal line.

Readers' Comments (161)

Obama's legacy is already fairly well established. The economic performance and overall national decline of the last four years will be next to impossible to turn around with the policies he's put in place. The numbers are bad now. A few more years of trillion dollar annual budget deficits will make them much, much worse.

Once Obama promoters like Glenn Thrush move on to the next shiny object, the Obama will have lost his PR shield. Without the propaganda machine behind him, the fog will lift and scales will fall from eyes.

Beyond the cheerleading team, it's pretty obvious that history will not be kind to Obama.

"Tight weak" is an apt poker description of President Obama's style of negotiating. In Time magazine's Man of the Year issue (awarded to Obama), he says what's most important is that we continually tack in the right direction. That, I say, is not enough. Too nibble at the income inequality (threatening our unity and even our form of government) when he could have had the $1.6 trillion in needed revenues by simply waiting for the automatic return to the Clinton era rates for the richest, is utterly irresponsible. He handed back to the richest (himself included) a trillion dollars that was guaranteed money in the Treasury, settling instead for $600 billion. You don't just tack in the right direction, you make as much progress as possible in the right direction, especially when you are blessed with a wind to your back. Brother...

So the economy is on the cusp of recovery? Where did you get this info moron? And as you should be aware these increases will not do one friggen thing to offset this idiots trillion + year spending habit but who cares. But lets talk about legacies shall we sycophants:

B Wynton Hall

America is entering a new economic normal, a reality where almost everything that should be going up is going down, and everything that should be going down is going up.

The United States begins 2013 in uncharted economic waters; America has never been here before.

Consider, for example, these seven “firsts” for the U.S. economy:

1. All-time record annual average gas price: In 2012, the average cost of a gallon of gas eclipsed the previous record by nine cents, bringing the annual average to $3.60.

2. All-time record food stamp participation: As of last month, for the first time in American history, 47,710,324 individuals -- roughly one out of every seven people living in the United States -- now receive food stamps.

3. All-time high youth unemployment: In the last four years, average youth unemployment eclipsed the previous record rising to 17.5% -- the highest ever in recorded U.S. history.

4. All-time high number of Americans no longer in the labor force: Never before in U.S. history have so many been sidelined from the workforce. Today, a record 88,921,000 Americans are no longer a part of the U.S. labor force.

5. All-time record number of Americans collecting disability: Medical advancements and technological innovations have increased life expectancy and made workplaces safer. Still, the number of Americans collecting Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) has skyrocketed in the last four years. Today, a record 8,827,795 individuals collect a disability check averaging $1,130.34 a month.

6. All-time record number of Americans living in poverty: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, a record 46.2 million people in America are living in poverty, the highest number in the 53 years that the Census Bureau has collected the figure.

7. All-time record U.S. debt: The last four years have exploded the U.S. debt to levels never seen before in American history. Presently, the United States is $16,400,000,000,000 in debt.

Arrogance reins supreme with this president. To stand before the public, with cooing stooges behind him to make himself look strong, was beyond audacity! This deal is NOT a winner for anyone. The debit continues (on the credit card).

Middle class: you want big government, you got it. Sooner or later you too will have to pay up!

This is getting out of hand.. Republicans must vote down any new tax"s . Not only does this take playing the Lottery a Donation for Government by taxing every one that plays or Wins the Lottery to give it to Government but Obama all ready took some of the funding from education and Has Doubled the price to play the Lottery from 1 dollar to 2 dollars ... . This is stealing !!!!! Were is the Dream to become wealthy if Government is going to take more then half of it and then when you die Government wants Half of your Dream ...Were does it Stop ??

You can Not Compare the American Economy to any other Country in the World. We have Freedom and Liberty's like no other has. When you give in to Government you allow these criminals to control your future and Socialize your Freedom and Liberty's. When you take the pay from the labor of the people You are stealing. Tax the sales not the People. We need Taxation with representation. Technology has over surpassed Humanity " Machines have taking Jobs & produce 50 times more. Tax the Job takers not the Labor of the Ppl. 200 tril Sold each day..Rich buy more while the poor keep there pay. Supply and Demand "tax the Sales ".

Obama's legacy will be the bankruptcy of America. In 8 years he will have more than doubled US debt from $10 billion to over $20 billion. America is finished thanks to his fiscal destruction. That is the legacy.

The premise of this article is silly. Obama's legacy is already assured by his mere election and re-election, and he knows it. He got everything he wanted. The idiots over at MoveOn don't realize how good they got it. The GOP gave in to all of Obama's tax demands and got no spending cuts in return. Obama will just trot out his "middle class families" 2 months from now to get more tax increases.

The American people voted for a tax a little more and spend a lot more government, and that's exactly what they got with this deal. The "Medicare Fix" just undoes most of the cost savings that Obamacare was supposed to generate. Similarly, all of Obama's "stimulative" tax cuts are now extended for 5 years, putting pressure on whoever the next president is to extend them. Yesterday was an excellent day for the president, and by no means did he see it as an obstacle. He relishes fights with the GOP because he always wins. McConnell is an even worse negotiator than Boehner. This deal makes the US tax code, already the most "progressive" in the world, even more so. There's lots of goodies for the lower and middle classes, paid for by tax increases on the wealthy. Expect more of the same in 2 months.

i think the spinning heads worry more about "presidential legacy" than do most who've actually sat behind the desk in the oval office. given the rigors of the job, i think most presidents are more concerned with maintaining grasp of their agenda, averting potential screwups domestic & foreign and then contemplating the next selfinflicted wound rendered by a congress not bound by term limits as POTUS is.

letting the bush era rates sunset was never going to yield the full $1.6 trillion in revenue just as caps & base broadening wouldn't have yielded anything close to the $600 billion he now has in hand alone. that's going to be a really contentious fight with congressional republicans now that rates hve been rolled back.

I'm not meaning to show disregard against Politico, but I doubt you really know all about Obama's real motives. The piece comes out way to sure about what the President's thoughts are. And before he was reelected it was stated that the trap was the election. It's all these punditry talk about motives hither and thither hat helps build up the publics dislike for Washington. Maybe many Democratic and Republican politicians actually have others motives as well than building monuments of themselves? It's such a superficial, typical media way of reducing people into characters in a tv soap opera. People are complex.

I'll never understand why you people spend your lives spewing vomit in the comments of a subpar political website when it's not changing anyone's minds. I guess it keeps you off Facebook which I'm sure your kids are thankful for.

Arguing online is like running in the special Olympics, even if you win, you're still retar... Oh never mind.

I am not a huge fan of Obama; nor did I vote for him (or anyone for that matter). But I am willing to wager that he will be added to a short list of great presidents. I am not saying that his presidency isn't complicated or dissappointing...but the guy was handed a pile of crap...and whether we want to admit it or not...the country is doing better (and to suggest that it would have recovered anyway is to admit that administrations...and hence political ideology...doesn't matter).

Barack Insane Obama in my view is the Most Arrogant, Most Divisive and the Most Destructive President we have ever placed in the White House. He is working hard to complete is Ideological trek to diminish the United States and home and abroad. At home he wants to lower the standard of living because in his world view we are to uppity and as a nation the people live to well. He wants American's to be more on par with the rest of the world. Considering a disasterous first term with high unemployment, especially if you count the real numbers and include people who have just given up hope of finding a job. Business has been paralized. He ran the most hateful presidential campaign in recent history using Racism, Sexism and Hateful speeches to divide and polarize this nation. Admittedly, he has done one hell of a job at that. Secondly, he wants to diminish America's leadership postion around the globe. To do that he continues Gut our Military and weaken us abroad and at home. Another terrorist attack on U.S. soil will be all his doing.

He did not win the November election by a landslide so it is a miscalculation to believe he was given some sort of a mandate to govern the next four years. His continued demonization of the private sector and the financial markets in this country is disgraceful for any President to do. His signature legislation "Obamacare" was rammed down our throats in tho most corrupt way possible on Christmas Eve and yest the Supreme court upheld most of the law, despite the fact that the American People still hate this law. Now they have to implement it and pay for it. Something like 23 states are not implementing healthcare exchanges because they want no part of the future cost along with the Federal Government dictating all the rules. These same states have also refused to expand Medicaid under Obamacare which is how the Socialist Democrats thought they could fund much of this healthcare cost. They will need further funding; however, they need to go to the House of Representatives for that. Certainly a challenge in the divided government we now have. It is my belief that Obamacare will crash and burn under it's own corrupt weight throwing the healthcare industry into further chaos that will need to be fixed. When this happens every Democrate present and future will carry the burden of Obamacare because they own it 100% as a partisan piece of trash they foisted on the American People.

I also believe there will be a strong backlash against the Entitlement Regime of Socialist Democrats that will be more severe than any politician can imagine. We eventually will right our ship of state but not before the Socialist wage major destruction on the country. The Socialist Democrats have been waging a ware of Hate, Racism and Sexism against anyone who disagrees with them. The Socialist Democrats have managed to Desensitize many American's on these issue and in the future no one will care about any of it. They will destroy their own social justice agenda stemming from the arrogance and stupidity.

And as for Barack Hussein Obama's legacy, Jimmy Carter already looks far better than the hateful, socialist ideologue we have in office now.

You can't be weak and have a legacy that is not weak. He backs down and capitulates on every fight. That is how he will be remembered. Given our political system, he may well be better thought of compared to future presidents, they seem to be getting worse all the time. I can now only wait for 2016.