Storm Risk Rising

Take Precautions

20-year Cycle Of Favorable Factors Beginning

May 15, 2000

Hurricane season won't even begin for 17 days, and its peak is four months away. Nevertheless, news about the increasing threat these monster storms pose is already raising mental red warning flags across South Florida.

Let's hope residents and emergency management officials educate themselves about the escalating danger, then take proper steps to prepare to survive it.

An official government forecast for the June 1-to-Nov. 30 hurricane season ought to end any public ignorance or apathy. Eleven or more tropical storms are expected. Seven or more storms may become hurricanes, with destructive winds topping 74 mph. Three or more may become deadly Category 3 hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph. One or more hurricanes may hit the United States.

Last year, five hurricanes struck the United States, killing 60 people.

Long-term, the news is even more dismal. Scientists say the world could be entering a 20-year era of hurricanes that are stronger, longer lasting and more frequent. These storms would be fueled by cool waters in the Pacific Ocean (La NiM-qa), warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean and unfavorable jet-stream and wind-shear conditions.

Those gloomy predictions, based on the latest and best scientific evidence, come both from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and private forecaster William Gray.

Complicating the threat of catastrophe, officials say, is the dramatic increase in the numbers of people who live in vulnerable areas close to the coast, including millions in South Florida.

But the conventional wisdom about hurricanes has just been challenged. A surprising new National Hurricane Center study says that from 1970 to 1999, inland flooding claimed far more lives than ocean storm surges, high winds or associated tornados. Of the 600 killed during hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions, 354 (59 percent) drowned or otherwise died due to inland flooding. Only six people (1 percent) died in storm surges.Wind killed 72 people (12 percent.)

The study deserves close public attention, especially its indication that severe threats to human life also come after hurricane winds die down.

Residents in South Florida and other areas where storms have hit before should not wait until a hurricane is bearing down on them to take precautions. They must make it a priority to learn all they can about storm threats, from hurricane warning guides published by the news media and by government. Then they must develop a family action plan to cope with a storm's threat:

Find out if you live in a mandatory hurricane evacuation zone and learn alternate evacuation routes out of the area. (Broward County's evacuation zones were recently compacted, generally covering areas only east of U.S. 1. Evacuation zones in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties won't be changed in time for this hurricane season.)

If you don't live in a mobile home or evacuation zone, avoid evacuating if possible to reduce highway gridlock. Learn ways to batten down your home or business to better survive a storm. Buy hurricane shutters or install shatter-proof glass.

Find the location of the nearest hurricane shelter and get a list of supplies you would need to take there or have at home in case a storm hit.

If you are building a new home, make sure it complies with a just-approved statewide building code that tightens hurricane protections.

Amidst all the bad news came some that was extremely positive. The able, respected forecaster Max Mayfield will lead the National Hurricane Center during this summer's storm season. His 28 years of storm forecasting, his professionalism, his coolness under pressure and his quietly authoritative style will give everyone a voice of reason to heed as winds and waves rage.