The old axiom in academia is "publish or perish." It's one Brock researcher Martin Tammemagi takes seriously.

On Sept. 5, a research paper he worked on was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. It is the second time a paper of his has been published in the journal, and he has eight more approved for publication in other periodicals this year.

"Ten times in a year is a banner year for me," he said Monday.

"I don't know if I will be able to live up this ever again."

Tammemagi's first paper was published in the journal in February, detailing a tool that can calculate a person's risk of developing lung cancer.

In his latest article, coauthored with a group of researchers including Dr. John Goffin from McMaster University, Tammemagi's new cancer probability tool was unveiled.

Where his first tool calculated a person's risk of developing lung cancer based on a series of indicators ranging from education level to smoking, the new calculations are designed to predict the probability a nodule found on the lung during a CT scan will become cancerous.

Tammemagi said he uses data collected by following cancer patients over a period of several years, as well as the information from CT scans of potentially cancerous nodules in lungs, to calculate the probability that the nodule will be cancerous.

"Only 2% of these nodules actually result in cancer. So by determining if a nodule is cancerous or not, we may be able to spare a patient more invasive tests or biopsies," he said.

If the probability of a nodule being cancerous is high, then the patient's physicians can move forward with the necessary tests and treatments.

If the probability is low, those tests might not be necessary.

"It absolutely can save money in the health-care system, but also relieve some stress for the patient and their families," he said.

"Many times when a patient is told they have a nodule, they immediately assume the worst outcome and think they are dying."

Tammemagi said his calculation has an accuracy rate higher than 90%. The math is complicated, he said, and not something doctors have time or necessarily the training to do. So he has created an online spreadsheet tool that allows the doctor to input data about the nodule and patient.

The tool crunches the numbers.

Tammemagi said he is not finished with using math and spreadsheets to predict cancer outcomes.

His next project is to look at predicting lung cancer in patients who have never smoked cigarettes.

Since his probability calculator was just unveiled, it is not yet widely used by oncologists. But after the article in the New England Journal of Medicine was published, the tool has been downloaded more than 400 times, Tammemagi said.