DNC may sanction Fla. Dems for early primary

The ugly elbowing over which states will go first in the 2008 presidential primary process is due to explode into open warfare Saturday as the Democratic National Committee decides what to do about “rogue” states that are threatening to violate party rules.

The DNC’s powerful Rules and Bylaws Committee is scheduled to meet at 10 a.m. in Washington to decide primarily what sanctions to take against Florida, where Democrats say they will conduct a primary on Jan. 29 in violation of party rules.

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The Politico has learned, however, that a secret 9 a.m. “off the record” breakfast will precede the open meeting and the 30 sometimes contentious members of the rules commitee will try to achieve some kind of consensus.

“We will decide then whether to blow off Florida,” a rules committee member told me.

The elbowing for position in the primary calendar has become especially intense this year, with several states threatening to flout party rules. Some members of the rules committee now feel only they can reestablish order in an increasingly chaotic process.

“There are strong personalities on the rules committee and they are leaning toward stricter sanctions,” a Democratic official said. “We’ve got to make a clear statement.”

While some calendar jockeying is taking place because of state pride — Iowa and New Hampshire are desperately trying to hang onto their “first in the nation” status — movement in other states has been due to positioning by the presidential candidates.

“Hillary got what she wanted by having New York move up to Feb. 5 and Barack Obama got what he wanted by moving Illinois up to Feb. 5,” one source said. “We are waiting to see who wants what in Florida.”

The rules committee will allow Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to hold their contests before Feb. 5. All other states will be barred from holding primaries or caucuses before Feb. 5, and there seems little support for granting a waiver to Florida or other states such as Michigan that are also threatening to move up.

The question remains, however, what power the DNC really has. Some see the current battle as a direct challenge to the authority of the party.

The DNC does have options. First, it could demand a boycott of rogue states by the presidential contenders.

“We will try to get the candidates not to campaign in those states,” a DNC member told me.

But would the candidates comply?

In 1996, when Delaware moved its primary too close to New Hampshire's, Republican front-runner Bob Dole and incumbent President Bill Clinton both agreed to skip Delaware.

But getting candidates to take a pass on Delaware, a tiny state with only three electoral votes (the minimum a state can have), is not the same thing as getting a candidate to boycott Florida, with its 27 electoral votes and its rich source of campaign contributions.

Candidates might decide they would much rather risk offending the DNC than offending Floridians.

“Yes, candidates would still campaign in [rogue] states,” one rules committee member told me, “but it will change their calculation” on how much time to spend in such states.