GENEVA, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Proposals in the Doha trade deal
under negotiation are unlikely to open up the sugar market much
as the European Union, the United States and Japan will use
waivers to avoid big tariff cuts, a study issued on Monday said.

The proposals would force the European Union in particular
to cut domestic prices and production, and would push up world
prices by reducing the output of small, high-cost producers like
Fiji and Mauritius, said the study issued by the International
Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).

"Despite the fact that consumers will face a higher world
price for sugar, they benefit from the reduction in the cost of
supporting the domestic sugar industry," according to the study,
by Amani Elobeid of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research
Institute at Iowa State University.

Under current proposals drafted in December last year, the
European Union, the United States and Japan would cut tariffs on
sugar by 70 percent, while most developing countries would cut
them by 36 percent, the study notes.

This would push up the world sugar price by 1 percent as
imports increase in response to lower duties. But as other
countries respond to the higher price by curbing imports there
is only a 0.7 percent increase in trade in sugar, it said.

World sugar production in 2008/09 was 158.55 million tonnes,
while net trade -- total exports less total imports -- was 33.96
million.

However the big sugar importers and producers are likely to
declare sugar a "sensitive product", allowing them to avoid
tariff cuts in return for letting in a quota at low duties.

The European Union could raise its quota by 700,000 tonnes
to 2 million tonnes, while the United States would increase its
quota by less than 300,000 tonnes to 1.4 million.

These quota expansions, linked to domestic consumption,
would represent only 3 percent of world trade, the study says.

Thailand, Malaysia and South Africa would have to expand
their quotas most, while China, Venezuela and the United States
would make the smallest expansions.

Other proposals would cap domestic subsidies at 5.9 billion
euros for the EU and $1.1 billion for the United States.

The planned elimination of export subsidies may force the
EU, already a net importer, to cut domestic sugar prices and
production, the study said.

Trade liberalisation is likely to hurt small high-cost
producers like Barbados, Fiji, Guyana, Jamaica and Mauritius,
which have traditionally exported to the EU under preferential
arrangements.

"Natural" producers like Brazil -- the world's biggest sugar
exporter with 60 percent of world trade -- Australia and
Thailand will benefit most from trade opening, it said.
(For full ICTSD study go to link.reuters.com/xar27f )
(Reporting by Jonathan Lynn, editing by Tim Pearce)