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May 20, 2004 - Kerry Edges Bush By Only 3 Points In New Jersey,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Concerns About Iraq, Terrorism Help President

Democratic challenger John Kerry has a narrow 46 - 43 percent lead over President
George W. Bush in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 5 percent.

In a head to head matchup, without Nader, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush 47 - 44
percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University finds. In the Bush-
Kerry matchup, independent voters split 46 -45 percent. In the three-way race,
independent voters split 41 - 41 percent, with 13 percent for Nader.

"Despite all the bad news out of Iraq, President Bush is threatening to make a
horse race out of New Jersey, a state everyone had put in the 'safe' column for John
Kerry. Actually it's not a case of the President doing so well in New Jersey - his approval
rating remains in negative territory - but John Kerry is just not catching on. His
favorability rating is a mediocre 27 - 28 percent, with 33 percent mixed and 13 percent of
the voters say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion," said Clay F.
Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"If Kerry is going to oust Bush, he needs to seal up states like New Jersey early so
he can concentrate his time and money on the key battleground states," Richards added.

Given three choices, 37 percent of New Jersey voters say the economy is the most
important issue in deciding their vote for President, while 33 percent list Iraq and 26
percent list terrorism.

Kerry would do a better job than Bush on the economy, voters say 50 - 43 percent.
Bush would do a better job in Iraq, voters say 48 - 44 percent and the President would do
a better job on terrorism, voters say 52 - 38 percent.

"If the principal concerns of New Jersey voters are the war in Iraq and the fight
against terrorism, rather than the economy, the wartime President has a better chance of
holding his ground against the Democratic challenger," Richards added.

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,122 New Jersey registered
voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts
public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and
nationally as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
his job as President?