Filibuster vote raises stakes for 2014

Elections, as the saying goes, have consequences. And Thursday’s historic vote in the Senate to obliterate the filibuster for most presidential nominees makes Election 2014 that much more consequential.

With only 51 Senate votes – a simple majority – now needed to clear presidential nominees for cabinet posts and federal judges, the power of the majority has been significantly enhanced.

And while Democrats who’ve been encouraging Reid for years to push the nuclear button rejoiced, many of them acknowledged that it would increase the pressure on the party to retain its majority.

“Now that Senate Democrats have made this decision, it’s absolutely critical that we keep control of the Senate after the 2014 election,” said Jim Manley, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “What happened today reinforced the stakes that are at play.”

The battle for the Senate was already joined before Reid’s move, with party committees, outside groups, and candidates set to spend tens of millions of dollars. Democrats currently control 55 seats to the GOP’s 45 seats, though Republicans, appear well positioned to cut into the majority.

While Democrats are trying to snatch seats from Republicans in Kentucky and Georgia, Republicans are eyeing Democratic-held seats in more than a half dozen states.

“I don’t think this is a time to be talking about reprisal. I think it’s a time to be sad about what has been done to the United States Senate,” Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday. “The solution to this problem is an election. The solution to this problem is at the ballot box. We look forward to having a great election on 2014.”

What role the nuclear option plays itself in next year’s races is an open question. While polls universally show that the public views Congress as a cauldron of dysfunction, strategists say there’s little interest among voters for a debate about Senate mechanics.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said after the vote that Democrats would “pay a heavy, heavy price” for weakening the filibuster, before allowing that it probably wouldn’t drive many votes.

If Thursday’s fireworks motivates voters, it’s most likely to be party activists – the liberals who’ve been hungering for Reid to put his foot down and the conservatives who view Democrats as a party run amock.

But some Republicans argue that Reid’s move fits into an emerging argument from the party: that the White House, with the help of congressional Democrats, is overstepping its power. At the crux of the charge is the botched roll-out of the president’s health care law.

“It puts red-state Democrats in that much more of a difficult position,” argued Brian Walsh, a former official with the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “It’s somewhat inside baseball, but it follows the broader narrative of the Obamacare debate.”

McConnell offered a preview of that message on Thursday, taking to the Senate floor to declare: “But here’s the problem with this latest distraction. It doesn’t distract people from Obamacare. It reminds them of it. It reminds them of all the broken promises. It reminds them of the power grab. It reminds them of the way Democrats set up one set of rules for themselves and another for everybody else.”

One Senate Democrat from a red state up for reelection in 2014 – Mark Pryor of Arkansas – broke with his party to vote against the rule change. Pryor released a statement saying that the alteration “could permanently damage the Senate.”