On-going
series: Crisis in the Caucasus - 2008
The Russian / Georgian Conflict and Its Impact on AzerbaijanWindow on Eurasia: Original
Blog Article

Kuressaare, November 20 -
A Ukrainian publisher
who is a close friend of the family of French President Nicolas
Sarkozy says that the French leader met privately with Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev during the recent EU-Russia summit
and agreed to recognize each other's sphere of influence in Europe.

As they are accustomed to doing
whenever Moscow and the West make a decision about them without
them, the Ukrainian media have labeled this "deal"
as another Yalta, a reference to the 1945 accord between the
United States and Great Britain, on the one hand, and the Soviet
Union, on the other, that left Eastern Europe under Moscow's
grip for nearly 50 years.

Because of the sensitivities
involved and because neither the French nor the Russian government
has confirmed this report, it is necessary to describe the report
itself as it appeared in the Ukrainian newspaper "Segodnya"
this week, before considering what in fact it may mean http://www.segodnya.ua/news/12093619.html

The paper says that Omar Arfush,
a Ukrainian publisher who is close to the Sarkozys, told its
journalists that the Nice summit was "preceded by an informal
meeting between Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
at which, according to information in the possession of Arfush,
some very important agreements were achieved."

In the Ukrainian publisher's
account, "before the summit Sarkozy invited Medvedev to
meet with him" with only their closest aides for a dinner
in the old city of Nice. At that session, Sarkozy reportedly
asked Medvedev directly "What do you want?" And the
latter replied that he wanted the two to agree on the partition
of Europe into two spheres of influence.

There will be "my"
regions, the Russian president said, and there will be "yours."
In this way, you help me and I will help you," adding that
he was especially interested in preventing the deployment of
anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe and blocking the expansion
of Western influence in Georgia and Ukraine.

To this, Arfush continued, Sarkozy
replied "'If I will help you in this, then you must give
me a promise that you will support me in relations with the United
States and that you will not interfere in Europe."

In other words, the Ukrainian
paper's Elena Tribushnaya writes, "a little Yalta took place
in Nice: two presidents met and decided who will influence what
in Europe and also agreed to work as a team on the world stage
in order to finally take away the influence of the Americans
and expand their own."

Because there has been no confirmation
of this Sarkozy-Medvedev "understanding" - and there
isn't likely to be - it is impossible to say whether this report
is true or whether it has been put out for one of several purposes.
But it is certainly the case that the exchange between the two
leaders, if that is all that took place, qualifies as "a
new Yalta" or even a "little" one.

On the one hand, such exchanges,
in which each side seeks to find out what the other really thinks
in an informal setting, are part and parcel of diplomatic life.
Consequently, it may be that Arfush reported accurately but that
he and the Kyiv journalists over-read and over-reacted to what
was said.

But on the other, it is possible
that this report is not accurate but rather an effort by Moscow
to divide the West by setting Paris against both other European
capitals and Washington and to intimidate the Ukrainians and
the Georgians into doing Russia's will by convincing them that
their supposed friends are now no friends at all.

If that latter interpretation
is correct, then it suggests that Western countries, including
France, have overcome the Yalta approach but that the rulers
of the Kremlin have not and still believe that big countries
have the right to get together and make decisions not only for
themselves but for smaller states as well.