The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll

"The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Pollrepresents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans'
opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000
respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular
basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their
attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is
updated just after midnight every day of the week."

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November

The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent
our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and
Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted
averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a
"95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band
mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the
highest percentage will win the popular vote.

About the Survey✝:
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part
of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of
Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
and the Los Angeles Times.
Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election
panel to answer three predictive questions:
What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential
election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and
(3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in,
we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of
all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies
behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra
questions
about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC
Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed
the
successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based
on the same methodology."......... "Survey Methods" (tab)

More than 3200 UAS panel members so far (July 2016) have agreed to
participate in answering questions about the election, and we expect
that number will increase over time. Each day, 1/7th of those who have
agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer
three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you
will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you
will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100)
and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to
100). The order of the candidates in the questions is randomized so that
about half of the respondents see Clinton as the first choice and half
of the respondents see Trump as the first choice.

Each night, Daybreak Poll results are weighted to match demographic
characteristics (such as race and gender) from the U.S. Census Current
Population Survey, and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome
using how respondents tell us how they voted in that election. Then the
latest results, averages of all of the prior week’s responses, are
posted onlineat https://election.usc.edu and on the LATimes.com Politics site shortly after midnight.

This is the estimated fraction of the
population that will vote for the candidate. The graph shows the
estimated fraction of the votes that a candidate will get, which is
computed by dividing the estimated fraction of the population that will
vote for the candidate by the estimated fraction of the population that
will vote for any candidate. The latter is analogously obtained as the
weighted mean of the respondents' likelihood of voting in the
presidential election.

To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also
ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and
values. Links to documents detailing question text, sample sizes,
response rates and other information for these separate surveys are
provided in the detailed information section below, linked to stories or
press releases where the results were disseminated.

The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election.

Delavande, Adeline, and Charles F. Manski. 2010. Probabilistic
polling and voting in the 2008 presidential election: Evidence from the
American Life Panel. Public Opinion Quarterly 74:433–459. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfq019