Marine Weather and TidesCamden, NC

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:07AM

Sunset 7:17PM

Monday March 19, 2018 10:15 PM EDT (02:15 UTC)

Moonrise 7:36AM

Moonset 8:33PM

Illumination 11%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Synopsis
High pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast this
evening. A pair of low pressure systems will impact the region
tonight through Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area late
in the week.

Near term through Tuesday
Early evening WV imagery depicts a potent low pressure system
pushing east across the mid-mississippi river valley toward the
ohio river valley. The mid level shortwave closed low was noted
on early evening WV Sat imagery just east of kstl, with the
associated 998mb sfc low over western tn ky. Primary change was
to lower pops early this evening, with weaker forcing keeping
showers just to the s-sw of the local area.

Still appears as if isentropic overrunning (centered from
295-300 k sfc) quickly develops after midnight, as the surface
low tracks across nc overnight tues morning before emerging off
the mid-atlantic coast on Tuesday. Rather impressive lift
progged with and north of the sfc low to produce a widespread
rain across the fa. Categorical pops prevail for all areas with
some moderate to heavy rainfall possible late tonight into
midday Tuesday. QPF amounts could exceed an inch in some areas.

Following a blend of the models, a triple point low should track
ne across NE nc and sern va late tonight then out into the va
capes Tuesday morning. Thus, can't rule out thunder across those
areas early tues morning. Lows from the mid-upper 30s north to
upr 40s to low 50s se.

The sfc low deepens as it tracks across the va capes Tuesday
morning. This will result in windy conditions (ne wind) along the
atlantic coast of the va md ERN shore where a wind advisory in in
effect mainly for areas from chincoteague to ocean city. The low
then lingers off the coast Tuesday aftn as weak high pressure tries
to nudge in from the north. This will result in the wind becoming
more northerly during the aftn. Likely to categorical pops tues
morning (locally heavy rain early over the eastern shore), then
likely pops north and NE with chc pops south Tuesday aftn. Chilly
with highs nr 40 low 40s north to 55-60 SE coastal areas.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
The complex system will continue to impact the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is still much uncertainty on how
the system evolves Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, the 19 12z
gfs nam ECMWF have trended toward a deepening of the surface low
closer to the coast and the potential for frontogenetic banding over
the delmarva. The upper level system pulls in enough cold air to
allow a transition to snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chc
to likely pops Tuesday evening ramp up to likely to categorical
everywhere after midnight through midday Wednesday as the forcing
from the upper level system taps into moisture. Thicknesses suggest
a mixed rain and snow event across the piedmont Tuesday night
changing to all snow, and rain snow Tuesday night changing to all
snow around daybreak Wednesday for central va. A cold rain over the
delmarva will change to snow Wednesday morning, and a cold rain for
se va NE nc could mix with some snow Wednesday aftn. The current
forecast is for 1-3" of snow from the NW piedmont across central va
to the NRN neck and the va ERN shore, with the potential for 3-5"
over the md ERN shore, with possibly 4-6" over dorchester md.

Elsewhere, expect an inch or less with no accumulation for far se
va coastal NE nc. This is close to the wpc forecast. Have opted to
issue a winter storm watch for the md ERN shore 10z Wed to 03z thu.

Lows Tuesday night range from 30-32f NW to the upper 30s se,
followed by highs Wednesday in the low mid 30s where snow falls to
the upper 30s low 40s where rain prevails.

Drier air arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as the system pulls
to the northeast. Partly to occasionally mostly cloudy under the
upper trough. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 20s NW to the
low 30s se, with highs Thursday in the mid to upper 40s, possible
cooler over the md ERN shore depending on snowfall Wednesday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Remained close to wpc grids for the late week into early next week.

Overall, cold high pressure building to the NW will provide a
continuation of (much) below temperatures for much of the forecast
period. After a cool, dry day on Friday, rain chances increase once
again ahead of next system, which develops across the central plains
on Fri Friday night... Then tracks east, undercutting the omega block
in place over the northern tier of states through the weekend.

Remaining partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, with rain
chances to increase later Sat into Sat night before becoming more
widespread on Sunday.

For temperatures, highs Fri Sat around 50f inland... M40s at the
coast. Lows Fri night in the l30s inland... U30s-around 40f at the
coast. Highs Sun Mon in the 40s N to m50s s.

Ceilings generally range from 5k to 10k feet with unrestricted
visibility. A stationary front lies north of the CWA and
showers tstms are moving along the boundary over eastern ky into
western va. Scattered showers are also over eastern nc and the
offshore waters. Low pressure will move out of the tn valley
tonight to the nc va border during the overnight and into the
early afternoon. Rain will increase across the area tonight and

may become heavy at times. Ceilings will decrease to MVFR then
ifr through the overnight and into tue. Winds will be mostly ne
to SE less than 10 kt then increase through the day on tue.

Rain, gusty winds, and ifr conditions will generally prevail
through much of Tue and into wed.

Outlook: more flight restrictions thru wed. Rain for the most
part may mix with or change to wet snow by Wed at ric and sby.

There could be some accumulations of an inch or two. Gusty winds
buffet the coast Tue and Wed as a coastal storm develops.

Marine
This evening the area remains sub-sca conditions as the sfc
high pressure slides offshore. Flow has become E to SE is
response to the low over the tn river valley which will jump to
the coast by Tuesday morning. E SE persist this evening at 5 to
10 kt then increase overnight.

Through the overnight hour tonight the pressure gradient
tightens in between the approaching sfc low from the w, and
sfc high centered over ontario. The dilemma for the lower bay
and capes is models develop and deepen the surface flow
somewhere between CAPE henry to oregon inlet. With the low
forecast to develop right over the capes this could limit the
wind speeds for a time until the low pulls off the coast. If
the low tracks south across nc then winds over the bay and capes
will be stronger. This will all be a matter of timing and storm
track. North of CAPE charles winds will st gale force no matter
the storm track.

Have continued gale warning N of CAPE charles and SCA headlines
for the remainder of the marine area. NE winds will ramp up
significantly by daybreak, as the initial sfc low stalls over
eastern ky and transfers energy to a developing sfc low across
the nc coastal plain. Again the exact position of this will be
critical as to how strong the winds get in southern portions of
the marine area from the capes south. For now, the consensus
has been to rapidly intensify the sfc low in the vicinity of the
va nc border Tue morning, then lift it NE and this would
support gales staying a little farther north. Did add a mention
of gusts to 40 to 45 kt from chincoteague north and gusts to 35
kt for portions of the bay.

This initial low will track off the va coast and then perhaps
stall off the DELMARVA Tue aftn Tue evening. As the upper level
low enters the region late Tue night wed, a new surface low
will develop along off the carolina coast and lift it NE off the
virginia coast during the day wed. Models merge this second low
with the initial low stalled off the coast. Another round of
gale force conditions are likely across the northern coastal
waters while SCA conditions with 25 to 30 kt winds are likely
over the remainder of the area. Seas will build pretty quickly
as well on Tuesday into Wednesday with seas getting up to 8 to
12 ft on the coastal waters.

By Wed night Thu morning, the sfc low will be moving well off
the coast and this will allow conditions to begin to relax with
nw flow continuing into Friday when high pressure finally moves
over the area. Seas likely to remain elevated for the coastal
waters such that SCA headlines will continue through at least
thu aftn.

Seas will build rapidly Tuesday and due to the nature and
longevity of the event will remain high into Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
Low pressure approaches from the tn valley later today, and
intensifies just off the coast on Tue before pulling off to the
ne. Secondary area of low pressure lags back off the carolina
coast and tracks NE off the mid-atlc coast Wed wed night. This
pattern will allow for a strong and persistent NE flow into much
of the local area from late tonight into Tue night, then winds
shift more to the nnw on wed. Building tidal departures and the
potential for at least minor coastal flooding over locations
adjacent to the lower bay and the atlc coast from ocean city to
currituck nc. Current forecast projections give the greatest
chance for flooding late Tue night into midday Wed as the
anomalies will take awhile to build tonight through tue.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of Mid-AtlanticEDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location. target = "new">Link to Loop

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)

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