BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week’s Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

Not sure why any of that should impact on those of both sides left to clean up the mess.

baird is being questioned because he is the new premier and it was him who took the recommendation to cabinet recommending the same appointment of Girolamo to a major Government business, ie Sydney Water.

He now says that was a mistake but is blaming the cabinet for the mistake in order to ameliorate his ‘involvement’.

Look at the 730 site for that interview last night for more detail.

I don’t know why he stuck his head up today – the board appointment may well have blown over by tuesday next week when easter in over.

The next major issue however is further ICAC hearing involving a recent former minister in the NSW tories who resigned quickly when stuff ‘surfaced’ – plus associated stuff which no one knows where it will all go – maybe even some Federal tories.

No fish to talk of but mauch expenditure of adrenaline with us being smashed by sharks and eagle rays. I’ve never had such battles in all my life! One monster ray nearly spooled me and we had to up anchor and chase it for half a km until I could bring it to the surface, It was then that it – five feet across – leapt out of the water and took off again. I’d had enough after 15 minutes I had to hand the rod over to my son who spent another five minutes getting it to the stage that we could just see colour in the water – but “ping!” it was then all over.
I also got a five foot gummy shark to the edge of the tinny but while we were clearing the decks and finding a priest so we could grab the thing by the tail it rolled over and abraded the line apart on its flank.
All good fun.

Mike Baird is the state’s 44th premier after the shock resignation of Barry O’Farrell over misleading the Independent Commission Against Corruption.

Here are 10 questions the new Premier needs to answer.

1. What was your precise role in the appointment of Liberal fund-raiser Nick Di Girolamo to the board of State Water Corporation in mid-2012, how many times have you met him and what gifts have you accepted from him?

Mr Di Girolamo is under investigation by the Independent Commission Against Corruption over his role as chief executive of Australian Water Holdings – a company linked to the family of corrupt former Labor powerbroker Eddie Obeid.

Mr O’Farrell resigned on Wednesday after giving false evidence to the ICAC that he had not received Mr Di Girolamo’s gift of a $3000 bottle of Penfolds Grange shortly after the March 2011 election.

The ICAC produced a hand-written thank-you note from Mr O’Farrell to Mr Di Girolamo for the wine.

In July 2012, Mr Di Girolamo was appointed by the O’Farrell government to the board of State Water Corporation.

Mr Baird, as Treasurer, was shareholding minister and involved in the appointment, which he has insisted was merit-based and approved by cabinet.

I’ll reserve judgement on whether Barry “deserved it”. One could argue he earnestly believed in what he said, but that’s hard to take given the guy has a keen memory in all manner of things. More telling is what happened to the bottle. Where is the audit trail that shows he did the right thing? None? Ok, he did the wrong thing there.

Is this whole thing a bit overblown? Yes, probably. To my mind its bits of corruption like this that divert attention from the real Crime, which is the coordinated effort between the Liberal Party and News Limited to invent narratives, concoct lies, come up with phony policies (like fraudband and direct action) and generally lie, cheat and defraud their way into power. That’s the real Crime going on here.

As far as O’Farrell’s government goes. Ok, could have been worse – especially if you compare it to Campbell or Abbott, but still not a particularly progressive, creative endeavour either. At least Gladys has been a good transport minister.

But after having said all of this, the good thing is that O’Farrell going down will shock some of the NSW voters, particularly certain types of voter in Sydney into realising the Liberals aren’t trustworthy in general. And those same people will now open their eyes and take a harder look at Abbott.

If the reform is achieved in New South Wales and what is now broadly known as 'NSW disease' is at last confronted, there should be momentum to extend the ICAC investigative model to other jurisdictions including the Commonwealth Government. Corruption does not stop at the NSW border. It is likely to exist wherever ministerial discretion and vested interests converge.

98% of all Volkswagens ever made are still on the road..the other 2% made it safely home.

(I’m not allowed to say that joke out loud, because my husband loves his Kombi. My son and I recently went through the reasons hubby would choose the Kombi ahead of me…)

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At least, Zoomster – he is not as bad as my mate

He was arguing with his wife over getting their new car. She wanted a fast sports car and he wanted a 4 wheel drive. Time passed by and no decision but when it was her birthday she thought it a great time to fulfill her wish.

She said, ” Look, I want something that will go from o to 100 in a few seconds …

The guy didn’t declare his $3000 dollar bottle of wine, the law required him to do so; he then lied under oath. I think that anyone would consider that acceptable is extraordinary. At least Barry O know what he had done was wrong, it would seem many; including the prime minister of Australia; can’t even get that far.

A Russian is travelling to Ukraine when he’s stopped to be checked by an officer.
“Name?” the officer asks.
“Vlad Dobryin,” the man answers.
“Nationality?”
“Russian.”
“Occupation?”
“No, No …. just visiting.”

Mr Abbott has not only accepted the principle of maternity leave since — he wants to introduce the most expensive option Australia has seen, increasing taxes to pay for it while campaigning as a tax scrapping government.

“The science of climate change is absolute crap.” (2009)

Whatever his views on climate change, as Prime Minister he is asking Australians to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on Direct Action, which in part would pay companies to cut carbon emissions.

As of July, Clive Palmer won’t be a minor presence in Tony Abbott’s life.
He may have to in order to get his Budget through the Senate, where in July he will have to deal with a crossbench (neither government, Labor, nor Green) of eight.

“We just can’t stop people from being homeless if that’s their choice.” (February, 2010)

The PM has since changed his mind about homelessness. Picture: News Corp AustraliaSource: News Corp Australia

Mr Abbott has changed his views since then — accepting that those who are homeless by choice have deeper problems — but might be reminded of his old position should funds for the homeless be cut.

“We will be a consultative, collegial government. No surprises, no excuses.” (July, 2013)

Well there have been some surprises — introduction of knights and dames for one — and the speculation is the Budget will have a few more. Mr Abbott also will be scrutinised for any excuses he might offer for not meeting commitments.

“Misleading the ABC is not quite the same as misleading the Parliament.” (2000)

Mr Abbott has in the past admitted to some relatively mild indiscretions with the truth but as Prime Minister he cannot be expected to be let off lightly for future examples.

“No one, however smart, however well-educated, is the suppository of all wisdoms.’’(August, 2013)

Tony Abbott will have a chance to place himself in history, whether repository or suppository.

Way to early to tell, you would expect the polling to reach those levels after the budget if what people are saying are correct. However if Abbott can go to the next election with the budget back in shape, growth and unemployment acceptable, empty detention centres, and some wins on the infrastructure front then he is sitting pretty.

So easy to get sucked in on here. Remember we are supposed to be in the middle of a war with Indonesia at the moment.

We have a long history of owning Kombis, starting out with a split screen 6 volter. The battery power was so poor we used to get out to check if the headlights were on!

Still, it did sterling service – we had a very well paid gig delivering groceries in the Camberwell area at the time, and it took us on many a holiday (I well remember trying to push start it at midnight on a perfectly flat surface outside a service station near Gundagai…)

Apart from going through clutch and brake cables fairly regularly, wisps of smoke used to come out of the dashboard occasionally, accompanied by a strong smell of burning. We put this down to wires burning out, but nothing ever seemed to be affected.

On our way to my 21st party (on a beach near Inverloch) it broke down beside the Princes Hwy, laden with provisions for the party. Fortunately other party goers stopped (“Strange place for a party…”)

We’ve had about three since then, which has meant that every farewell speech I’ve ever received has had a distinct car theme (“I’m sure we all remember having to push start her Kombi…”)

Still, when one of my friends took me on a drive in her brand new car and smirked, “Well, this is very different from the Kombi, isn’t it?” my comeback was, “Can you make coffee in it?”

SNIP: I would appreciate it if commenters refrained from baldly accusing people of criminality without having any legal justification for doing so. It happens to be against the law, both for you to write it and for me to allow it to be published – The Management.

…we had an interesting period where hubby (then boyfriend) lost his license (not in the Kombi, obviously, but in his Lotus Elite) and I had to take over the driving.

Split screen Kombis were not designed to be driven by short females. If I put in the clutch AND went to change gear, I had to reach down so far I couldn’t see where I was going.

So we developed a method of driving whereby I put in the clutch and hubby did the gear change.

Worked very well, on the whole, although occasionally he decided I wasn’t steering properly and would lean over and wrench the steering wheel in what he thought was the right direction, much to the detriment of the roundabout we were navigating…

There was also the classic occasion where we spent a weekend marshalling at Winton raceway, where he pontificated at length about the correct way to brake at a corner. I applied these principles next time we were delivering groceries (quite successfully, I must say) but he found it a bit of a nerve wracking experience….

SNIP: I would appreciate it if commenters refrained from baldly accusing people of criminality without having any legal justification for doing so. It happens to be against the law, both for you to write it and for me to allow it to be published – The Management.

ok … and becasue he was caught out lying to the Independent Commision Against Corruption.

We can perhaps understand why Mr O’Farrell forgot the bottle (but really, would you ever forget getting such a unique gift?) but we cannot know why he did not declare it. At best it was an administrative oversight.

Shades of Henderson’s defence. Blame the inefficient staff.

But “administrative oversight” excuse doesn’t have legs AFAIC because the bottle of grange arrived at O’Farrell’s house, not at his office.

How could his staff possibly know about a gift that arrived at his house unless he told them?

The question then is: Did O’Farrell advise his administrative staff about it? Where did he write the thank you note, at home or in the office?

It is far too easy to make staff the usual fall guys in situations like this.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.