The Eve of Destruction?

Indian paramilitaries carry the coffins of their fellow soldiers killed in gunfire in Indian-controlled Kashmir (Image)

Recent headlines have been dominated by coverage of the second summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, which was convened with starry-eyed hopes of securing a North Korean commitment to denuclearization. This was not, however, the only international happening of the past month that involved a pair of nuclear-armed states with a hostile history.

India and Pakistan have had a contentious relationship marked by four wars since Pakistan was separated from India in 1947. Over the past two weeks, tensions have risen especially high — to the extent that fears of imminent war have been rekindled. A suicide bombing by a Pakistan-based terrorist organization last month claimed the lives of over 40 Indian paramilitaries and ignited an exchange of antagonistic maneuvers that included Indian air raids in Pakistani territory and the capture of an Indian pilot. As of the time that this article was authored, the situation appears to have somewhat de-escalated. Nevertheless, these recent events have amplified concerns for the implications of a war with the possibility of nuclear exchange.

Over the past few decades, Pakistan and India have engaged in an arms race of sorts, with the military capacity of the latter clearly proving more formidable. However, India is likely to hold off on employing its full arsenal against Pakistan for the time being, and for good reason. The authority to deploy nuclear weapons in the Pakistani military is assigned to lower-level military commanders, rendering their tactics all the more unpredictable. By decentralizing this decision, Pakistani officials essentially place the responsibility upon India to avoid provoking a nuclear attack. So, when dozens of Indian paramilitaries are killed by a terrorist group that the Indian government believes to be allowed to operate freely by Pakistani officials, the stakes of any response are instantly raised.

For all of the organizations and treaties built around the mission of nuclear non-proliferation, the notion of international nuclear stability is becoming increasingly precarious. Relations and words are heating up, as evidenced by the small exchanges cited previously in this article, as well as Russia’s troubling withdrawal from the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with the U.S. The most immediate threat, though, as described by Bradford University professor Paul Rogers, might just be a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, which could quickly grow to involve more powerful allies, like the United States and Russia. The globe has entered a new, more dangerous era of nuclear states, and we came uncomfortably close to realizing this during the recent tensions in South Asia.