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Sarah Palin enters the 2014 Louisiana Senate race: James Varney

Sarah Palin Book Signing

BRETT DUKE / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE
Former Governor of Alaska and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin signs her new book "America By Heart: Reflections on Family, Faith and Flag," Monday, November 29, 2010 at the Barnes & Noble in Metairie. Palin was at the bookstore promoting her new book.
(The Times-Picayune/Brett Duke)

The impact of Palin's celebrated and mocked vision is difficult to measure in Louisiana. On one hand, it's hard to gauge how much her endorsement helps Maness; on the other, it's easy to conclude it may help the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Mary Landrieu.

For weeks now the polls and the mood have been going in the wrong direction for Democrats nationally and for Landrieu locally. When negative currents threaten to become a riptide, it's no wonder an endorsement can be spun as a negative.

That's what you see from Landrieu supporters in the NOLA.com cyberspace community, for instance. "Kiss of death!" exulted some liberal voices.

That take comes from not thinking this thing through, it seems to me. If Palin's backing hurts Maness, then Team Landrieu should not desire it. The stronger leading challenger Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge is, the tougher it will be for Landrieu to buck the trend in a state where she is the lone statewide elected official who is a Democrat.

In other words, Cassidy wants Maness to remain on the fringe. A kiss of death would guarantee that.

But Palin's recognition and the respect she still gets from some of the more conservative elements here and elsewhere are real, they are earned, and they don't go away just because liberals have unleashed a tsunami of nastiness toward her. That may not be enough to get a candidate over the hump, as NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune's Bruce Alpert noted in a dispatch from Washington. But it isn't something that doesn't count, either.

The fact it counts among the most committed conservative elements, however, dilutes the endorsement's power for Maness. Running under the banner of "the true conservative" in the race, Maness already had the support of most voters for whom a Palin endorsement clinches the deal.

In the short term, then, Palin's support has to be ruled a gain for Maness. It provides a spark, some coverage, possibly a fundraising boost.

In the long term, though, I think it reflects the gathering storm clouds for the Landrieu campaign and, perhaps, on the national map. That's because the battle going on between Cassidy, Maness, Palin and other conservatives should benefit Republicans. It should, at least in theory, hone their positions and produce candidates and proposals that unite rather than divide the party.

Take North Carolina as an indication of this. In the recent GOP primary there, House Speaker Thom Tillis emerged victorious. The liberals at CNN and elsewhere immediately pegged this as a black eye for the Tea Party they hate and a win for the Republican establishment.

In what should come as no surprise, however, the outcome was more nuanced than media working for Democrats let on. Tillis actually has strong conservative credentials, and he immediately blasted President Barack Obama's agenda and the support it has gotten from the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Kay Hagan.

That message is remarkably famiilar to anyone listening to Cassidy, and one no conservative could oppose.

What's more, Tillis hauled in 45 percent of the vote in a race much more crowded than Landrieu's. That's one indication Tar Heel conservatives didn't see him as some mushy old-timer; another is the fact that Tillis was viewed favorably by nearly 60 percent of those who called themselves Tea Partiers.

There's a reason, then, The New York Times acknowledged Tillis won "handily."

Cassidy has labored for months to shed the idea his conservative credentials are squishy. His is a mixed but hardly soft record, a fact reflected in Palin's endorsement of Maness. She chided him for:

- Voting to increase the debt ceiling (something most everyone knew was going to have to happen and that could be seen as allegedly prized bipartisanship).

- Initially supporting the government bailout of banks and the like (Bush administration moves to deal with the financial crisis that probably helped more than anything Obama has done).

The first vote is reasonable, the second bad but hardly a killer, and the third the right thing to do.

Thus, Cassidy's record reflects a guy whose conservatism may not be pristine enough for Palin, but one that contains clear threads conservatives can embrace.

What his campaign and Tillis' suggest is that the divide between "establishment" Republicans and "Tea Party" sorts is narrowing. That's bad news indeed for Landrieu because a fractured opposition is her best chance.