MIZNER:GAMBLE OR SAFE BET? CONTROVERSY RAGES AS TUESDAY'S VOTE NEARS

The odds of it infusing new life into the city's heart and making Boca Raton's downtown unique are excellent, they say.

Without Mizner Park, Boca Raton "will be like all the towns on U.S. 1," said Jamie Snyder, chairwoman of the Community Redevelopment Agency, which hopes that voters will approve the project at the polls on Tuesday.

To others, however, undertaking the largest real estate transaction in the city's history also presents the largest risk. The project will change little in the sagging downtown, they say, and only guarantee incurring a $135 million debt.

"Boca has the image of we all drive Rolls Royces," said Jan Katynski, of Let the People Speak, a group working to defeat the Mizner Park proposal. "There are a lot of middle- and lower-income people -- people with small children and retirees -- who can't pay any price."

The decision now rests with the voters, who must weigh the pros and cons and set the course of downtown.

Real estate analysts and redevelopment experts offer a variety of opinions on whether the proposed Mizner Park commercial-cultural center will revitalize downtown or send it wallowing into debt.

"In reality there is no real risk," said Lance deHaven-Smith, associate director of the Florida Atlantic University/Florida International University Joint Center on Environmental and Urban Problems. "It gives the opportunity to save money in the long run. I just don't see how Boca could lose."

Downtown needs something to spark its latent vitality, DeHaven-Smith said, and residents may either endorse this joint public-private venture now or be forced to salvage a more emaciated downtown later.

"The deal now has minimal public investment," DeHaven-Smith said.

CRA officials think that successful revitalization depends on the government getting involved.

DeHaven-Smith says the deal worked out with developers Crocker & Co. is an "innovative partnership" in which the debt incurred is paid off by the developer and downtown property owners who stand to benefit if the project is successful in drawing people back downtown.

If Crocker & Co., owner of the Boca Mall site that is slated for development as Mizner Park, were to develop the site without the CRA, twice as many square feet of retail and office space could be built and without the cultural amenities to lure people downtown, Snyder said.

But Crocker "can't do a thing with that mall without the city's permission," said Andrew Meshbane, spokesman for Let the People Speak, which opposes the CRA's involvement in the project.

The cultural elements like the Caldwell Theatre and the Boca Museum are what proponents are counting on to make Boca Raton's downtown different from other cities along the coast.

"A healthy city is where you see a lot of people on the street; they're not all hiding in offices and racing to their cars at 5 p.m.," DeHaven-Smith said. "That is essentially what Mizner Park is after. You're going to have cultural amenities to attract people."

But at least one analyst points out that there are no guarantees that the cultural elements will reverse the flow of businesses and residents away from downtown.

"I don't see the great attraction of a cultural center to offices. I don't think it is a real catalyst for retail development, especially when we're overbuilt as we are," said Paul Black, vice president and senior market anayst for Appraisal and Real Estate Economic Associates in Miami. "That doesn't mean there aren't pockets of opportunity."

However, other downtown redevelopment specialists say cultural components enhance a city center and help create a healthy, bustling area outside of the 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. business day.

"Everyone would agree that that would be a key element in making it interesting, making it more of an around-the-clock place. It would be a major amenity," said Dean Schwanke of the Urban Land Institute in Washington, D.C. Schwanke authored a handbook on mixed-use developments like Mizner Park but is not familiar with the details of Boca Raton's proposed project.

"The problem with those kinds of uses is who's going to pay for them," Schwanke said. "Usually the city has to subsidize them."

City officials have stated that the cultural groups that want to locate in Mizner Park may have to pay only a token rent. Maintenance fees on the upkeep of the areas around the buildings throughout Mizner Park will be paid by all tenants, including the cultural organizations, but the costs are unknown.

However, critics of the project say that there are no guarantees that the cultural groups will be able to raise the money to build in Mizner Park or sustain themselves once in the complex.

"As of Jan. 1, 1989, not a single one of these cultural entities has committed for a square foot of space," writes Daniel Vilardi, executive director of Let the People Speak in a position paper on Mizner Park.

Meshbane contends that without cultural entities, the CRA could end up paying for the maintenance of the parcels set aside for them.

Opponents also worry that because of the high office vacancy rates in the city, Tom Crocker, president of Crocker & Co., will not be able to lease his space, possibly putting a financial burden on taxpayers.

"I don't know who he's going to rent to," said William Merchant, president of Let the People Speak. "It doesn't seem to be a very good business venture."

But, Crocker is confident that he will be able to lease the 260,000 square feet of retail and office space and make his rent payments. In addition, he has agreed to $10 million in financial guarantees that he will build Mizner Park and maintain his rent payments. Crocker's rental income will help to pay off the CRA's debt.

Crocker points to Crocker Center, a Crocker & Co. retail-office-hotel complex to the west of Boca Raton, and his successes in leasing that space. Ninety- seven percent of the office space is leased, Crocker said.

"We've absolutely no doubt that the retail will be successful. We've already rented some of it," Crocker said.

At least one analyst familiar with market conditions in downtown Boca Raton said the overbuilding of a few years ago that resulted in an office space glut in the city cannot be repeated based on today's conservative market.

"Everyone still has the fear of another wave of overbuilding," said Keith O'Donnell, senior salesman and consultant for Coldwell Banker in Boca Raton. "Under the current financing requirements, it's not possible. Banks won't lend without substantial pre-leasing. Without a good track record you can't get financing. I don't see us having the same sort of problems we had a couple years ago."

And other projects on line for downtown, including the 65,000 square foot first building of The Barbar Group's Financial Center and the 30,000 square foot first phase of Bill Shubin's Via Mizner development, should not siphon potential tenants away from Mizner Park, O'Donnell said.

"No one is planning large-scale, ambitious projects. They're all planning common-sense buildings," O'Donnell said. "They'll all help each other. There will be a nice synergism down there. With the scale of it, I don't foresee a glut or oversupply problem.

"A quality downtown is going to depend on master planning and the quality of the mixed use. You put the correct blend down there, you'll have a successful downtown."

The amount of retail, office, hotel and residential space to be included in Mizner Park is still in a state of flux. At this point, however, plans for a hotel have been eliminated and replaced with residential units.