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Update on the update: 11/19 Topic

Most of the code for simulating plays is in the engine. There are a few things I still need to put in, but am waiting because I want to test the results without the bias of these other things - things like fatigue and penalties. I want to get results suitable for beta which means to the point where games scores and yardages and averages look like reasonable results for college football. When beta begins, the results will still be in a rough stage and I hope that having many eyes looking at results and getting lots of feedback will help me tweak and adjust the engine, and I plan on there being lots of tweaking and adjusting.

We are working on getting the new game plan pages complete before beta. When those are finished, I will have a better idea of when we will launch beta. I'd also like to get the advanced play by play cleaned up and closer to its final form before beta. I'm sure I can get some good feedback during beta on both the new pages and the play by play.

There are a few things in the engine that I'm not exactly happy with and I want to get those worked on as well before beta, but I'm okay with everything not being perfect before beta. I just want to make sure the experience isn't soured by some very obvious things. So still no date I can announce on beta, but we are getting close.

I plan on having a DEV CHAT next week and I'll post that after I check our schedules. I hope to focus on mostly the update, but I'll open it to other questions as well.

Another thing I need to do that is quite time consuming is come up with new Standard playbooks. The old playbooks don't translate quite so easily and I think this is a good time to review and improve the standard playbooks. I plan on having standard (or global) playbooks that focus on each formation, but not necessarily use the formation exclusively. For instance, we can have a "Standard: I-Formation" and "Standard: Pro Set" or even "Standard: I-Formation Balance" and "Standard: I-Formation Run" and so on. This might be something that I open up to a community driven project during beta to help build these playbooks.

I want to get results suitable for beta which means to the point where games scores and yardages and averages look like reasonable results for college football.

I don't think I like the the sound of that.

Why not take 2 teams, have a reasonabe idea of what "should" happen, SIM them 100 or 1000 times to see what you get and make adjustments after that.
You have 1 trial where the defense is correct 100% of the time and another trial where the defense is totally wrong 100% of the time. Analyze the resutls and make adjustments.

Posted by stingray002 on 11/19/2012 3:13:00 PM (view original):I want to get results suitable for beta which means to the point where games scores and yardages and averages look like reasonable results for college football.

I don't think I like the the sound of that.

Why not take 2 teams, have a reasonabe idea of what "should" happen, SIM them 100 or 1000 times to see what you get and make adjustments after that.
You have 1 trial where the defense is correct 100% of the time and another trial where the defense is totally wrong 100% of the time. Analyze the resutls and make adjustments.

I don't think the testing is the problem, I think it's the adjustments he has to make after the 1000 times. That's probably easier said than done. Plus, you can't just do it with two teams like that. You have to try different combos. Two good offenses play each other; two good defenses play each other, good offense plays good defense; bad offense plays bad defense, etc.

Posted by stingray002 on 11/19/2012 3:13:00 PM (view original):I want to get results suitable for beta which means to the point where games scores and yardages and averages look like reasonable results for college football.

I don't think I like the the sound of that.

Why not take 2 teams, have a reasonabe idea of what "should" happen, SIM them 100 or 1000 times to see what you get and make adjustments after that.
You have 1 trial where the defense is correct 100% of the time and another trial where the defense is totally wrong 100% of the time. Analyze the resutls and make adjustments.

I don't think the testing is the problem, I think it's the adjustments he has to make after the 1000 times. That's probably easier said than done. Plus, you can't just do it with two teams like that. You have to try different combos. Two good offenses play each other; two good defenses play each other, good offense plays good defense; bad offense plays bad defense, etc.

Basically what ebbets55 said is spot on. It's not that I don't know how to test results, it's actually testing and adjusting that is time consuming. I have to account for a bunch of various combinations of teams and players. But I just want to get it to where it fits in a good range to start and hit it harder in beta. Having a bunch of people scrutinizing game results of a bunch of different match ups is going to be more productive than me trying to set up all those test conditions.

Posted by stingray002 on 11/19/2012 3:13:00 PM (view original):I want to get results suitable for beta which means to the point where games scores and yardages and averages look like reasonable results for college football.

I don't think I like the the sound of that.

Why not take 2 teams, have a reasonabe idea of what "should" happen, SIM them 100 or 1000 times to see what you get and make adjustments after that.
You have 1 trial where the defense is correct 100% of the time and another trial where the defense is totally wrong 100% of the time. Analyze the resutls and make adjustments.

This is the scheme that JConte passed out after the first great "Update". Let NDB QB's throw for 1000 yds and made the WB unstoppable. Needs average teams to ALWAYS play each other to an average reasonable outcome (not 1500 yds or 100 yds) and then let the community play with the combinations.

I think Norbert is trying to say that the individual games should bear some resemblance to college football. I hope so. JConte got too focused on the total stats across the world looking like the total stats across college football. Who cares? Will playing the individual games be fun? And can we understand why the games turn out the way they do?

Just to keep expectations reasonable, we have some time before beta will launch and beta will probably take almost 2 months to make sure things are running well, so I don't think the update will be pushed live for at least 3 GD seasons. So I would count on playing the next 3 seasons under the current engine. Plus when we push out the update, you'll have to wait for the season to roll over to move to the new engine, so possibly up to the next 4 seasons.