tdf-stage 16

Starting this one early. Well desperate times call for desperate measures. I've taken a big penalty hit and redesigned my team around breakaway specialists from teams with no stage wins, and 2 high ranking non GC jersey holders. Get this right I score ok with 2 HC etc and downhill finish. Get it wrong and I go down down down.

Conservative is no bad thing, conservative is certainly the way to go when you're near the top of the league as I've found in general that taking risks never pays off. It's only because I'm so far behind I've picked Rolland and Kessiakoff otherwise it'd be Nibali and Zubeldia probably, or Van den Broeck maybe.

I agree that Rolland and Kessiakoff are very atractive thanks to the KOM battle and think that this is the kind of stage for Nibali to attack on the final climb and try and make it stick on the descent..

That left me with a decision on the fourth star and I went for Tejay over Roche as I can then leave him in right through to the time trial.

It depends, HC are 15 points each, cat 1 is 10 points so today the max you can get is 50. As long as Kessiakoff places well on every climb he should be ok, he's got a 30 point cushion back to Sorensen and 32 to Voeckler.

I think there's another 42 on offer tomorrow so I reckon as long as Kessiakoff picks up 30 points today he'll have the jersey in the bag.

Well its a better start for me - the three I wanted in the break are all in (Stortoni, Valls and Chris-Anker), but with 35 others its unlikely that the first two will score much, although Sorensen should hopefully be going for it. Then Rolland, Froome and Pinot to come through later, and Jeandesbosz and De Weert saving themselves for tomorrow, with Boeckmans dead last - Perfect!

Those are fantasy points by the way, Voeckler (62) has closed the gap on Kessiakoff (89) to 27 points. Rolland (55) is now 34 points behind Kessiakoff in 3rd and is pretty much out of it now, Sorensen (53) in 4th.