U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Waterfowl
Population Status, 2001
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2001
July 20, 2001
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition,
public hearings are held and the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public
comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for
waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the
Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various State and Provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation
organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the U.S. for the
2001-2002 hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Pintail, by Robert Hautman, winner of the 2000-2001 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information contained in this report is the result of the efforts
of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, 49 state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from
Canada, and Direccion General de Conservacion Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition,
several conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals
provided information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from
the NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the
collection and compilation of data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of individuals
who were primary contacts for information included in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any
omission of individuals from these lists, and thank all participants for their contributions. Without this combined
effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Tim
Moser, and Khristi Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Graphic support was provided by Paul D. Keywood and D. Alan Davenport. Support for the processing of data
and publication was provided by Mark C. Otto, James A. Dubovsky, and Judith P. Bladen. James A. Dubovsky
and Judith A. Bladen reviewed drafts of this report and provided helpful comments. John Bidwell, Elizabeth
Buelna, Carl Ferguson, Rod King, Mark Koneff, Fred Roetker, John Solberg, Phil Thorpe, James Voelzer, and
James Wortham provided habitat narratives, reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding
areas, and provided helpful comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Waterfowl population status, 2001. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. 50 pp.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov).
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................. 3
Status of ducks
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 6
References........................................................................................................................................ 20
Status of geese and swans
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 21
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 21
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks ....................................... 37
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans .................... 39
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the breeding waterfowl and habitat survey ............. 41
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 42
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ................................................................................. 43
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area ............................................................................................ 45
Appendix G. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1999-2001 ..................................................... 47
Appendix H. Estimated number of July ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 48
Appendix I. Canada goose population indices during 1969-2001 .................................................... 49
Appendix J. Population indices for snow geese, greater white-fronted geese, brant, emperor
geese, and tundra swans during 1969-2000 ........................................................................ 50
3
List of duck tables
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and
the northcentral U.S. ............................................................................................................ 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates .......................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates …………………………………………………………11
Table 4. Estimated number of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral
U.S....................................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the traditional survey area................................... 16
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern
survey area ........................................................................................................................... 16
List of duck figures
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American
Waterfowl Management Plan population goal for selected species for the traditional
survey area .......................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size of the mallard population in the
fall......................................................................................................................................... 20
List of goose and swan figures
Figure 1. Important Arctic and subarctic nesting areas of North America ....................................... 22
Figure 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North American for 3-5 June 2000 and 3 June
2001..................................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America .............................. 24
Figures 4-16, 18. Estimated numbers of Canada goose populations…………………………….. 25-31
Figure 17. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America ........................... 30
Figures 19-23, 25. Estimated numbers of light goose populations………………………………...32-34
Figure 24. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific populations of brant during winter ................. 34
Figure 26. Approximate range of Emperor goose, and eastern and western swan populations in
North America ....................................................................................................................... 35
Figure 27. Estimated numbers of the Eastern and Western Populations of tundra swans during
winter.................................................................................................................................... 36
4
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77), total duck abundance was 36.1 ± 0.6
[SE] million birds. This was 14% below (P< 0.001) last year’s estimate of 41.8 ± 0.7 million birds, but still 9%
above the long-term (1955-2000) average (P < 0.001). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.9 ± 0.2
million, which is 17% below (P<0.001) the 2000 estimate of 9.5 ± 0.3 million and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.08). Blue-winged teal (Anas discors) abundance was 5.8 ± 0.3 million, which was 23% below last
year’s estimate of 7.4 ± 0.4 million (P=0.001), but 29% above the long-term average (P = 0.001). Green-winged
teal (Anas crecca) abundance was 2.5 ± 0.2 million, 39% above the long-term average (P<0.001) but 21%
lower than last year (P=0.007). Gadwall (Anas strepera; 2.7 ± 0.1 million, +66%) and northern shovelers (Anas
clypeata; 3.3 ± 0.2 million, +60%), were above their long-term averages (P < 0.04), while northern pintails (Anas
acuta; 3.3 ± 0.3 million, -23%) and scaup (Aythya marila and A. affinis combined; 3.7 ± 0.2 million, -31%)
remained below their long-term averages (P<0.01). Redheads (Aythya americana; 0.7 + 0.07 million) were
23% below 2000 numbers (P=0.04), and similar to their long-term average (P=0.22). American wigeon (Anas
Americana; 2.5 + 0.1 million) and canvasback (Aythya valisineria; 0.6 + 0.05 million) estimates were similar to
those of last year (P≥0.19) and to long-term averages (P>0.22). Habitat conditions in May in the traditional
survey area were generally wetter than last year, but varied considerably among areas. The estimate of May
ponds in Prairie Canada and the U.S. combined was 4.6 ± 0.1 million, up 18% from 2000, but not statistically
different from the long-term average (P=0.07). The eastern survey area comprises strata 51-56 and 62-69.
The 2001 total duck population estimate for the eastern survey area was 3.3 ± 0.3 million birds, similar to last
year’s total duck estimate of 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds. Abundances of individual species were similar to last year,
with the exception of ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris; 0.35 + 0.04 million, -43%, P=0.001) and buffleheads
(Bucephala albeola; 0.10 ± 0.02 million, +93%, P = 0.05). The mid-continent mallard fall flight is predicted to be
10.5 million mallards, 6% lower than that of last year (P=0.02).
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
The data and analyses were the most current
available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and encompass principal breeding areas
of North America, and cover over 2.0 million square
miles. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50,
and 75-77) is comprised of parts of Alaska, Canada,
and the northcentral U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates of ducks and ponds seen from the air are
corrected annually for visibility bias by conducting
ground counts. In the northern portions of the
traditional survey area and the eastern survey area,
duck estimates are corrected using visibility rates
derived from a comparison of airplane and helicopter
counts. Annual estimates of duck abundance are
available since 1955 for the traditional survey area
and for all strata in the eastern survey area since
1996, although portions of the eastern survey area
have been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in Prairie
Canada are available since 1961, whereas estimates
for the north-central U.S. are available only since
1974. Several provinces and states also conduct
breeding waterfowl surveys using various methods;
some have survey designs that allow calculation of
measures of precision for estimates of duck
abundance. Information about habitat conditions was
supplied primarily by biologists in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
obtained from one serial publication and two Internet
sites, referenced at the end of this document.
5
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers assess summer habitat
conditions and duck production in a portion of the
traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77). This
survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis) mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, in
2000, we redefined the total duck species
composition in this region to include these species,
and recalculated historical estimates to reflect this
change. Canvasbacks, redheads, and ruddy ducks
(Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the eastern
total-duck estimate because these species rarely
breed there. Due to the added survey areas and
change in total duck composition, estimates for the
eastern survey area published in this document are
not comparable to those published in status reports
prior to 2000. Wood ducks are also not included in
the total duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
Mallard fall-flight indices predict the size of the fall
population originating from the mid-continent region
of North America. For management purposes, the
mid-continent population is comprised of mallards
originating from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Indices are
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and consider breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a model
that depicts how the age ratio varies with changes in
spring population size and pond abundance. The
fall-flight index represents a weighted average of the
fall flights predicted by the four alternative models of
mallard population dynamics used in adaptive
harvest management (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
2001), using current model probabilities as weights.
Fall flight indices provided in this report may differ
from those published previously because model
weights change each year based on a comparison of
model predictions and observed population size.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2000 in Review
Most of Canada and the U.S. experienced warm
temperatures in March, and spring phenology was
early. The January-May period of 2000 was the
warmest on record for the U.S. as a whole. These
seasonally high temperatures contributed to
worsening drought conditions in parts of the
Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. The
northeastern U.S., however, received above-average
precipitation, helping to alleviate the moisture deficit
from the previous summer’s drought. In the spring of
2000 in the traditional survey area, conditions were
much drier than during the previous 6 years. These
dry conditions were reflected in the estimates of May
ponds (Prairie Canada and U.S. combined). The
estimate was 3.9 ± 0.1 [SE] million ponds, down 41%
from 1999 (P<0.01) and 20% below the 1974-99
average (P<0.01, Appendix D). Ponds in Prairie
Canada numbered 2.4 ± 0.1 million, 37% below 1999
and 30% below the 1955-99 average (P < 0.01). The
pond estimate for the north-central U.S. was 1.5 ± 0.1
million, 46% below that of 1999 (P < 0.01) and similar
(P=0.95) to the long-term average. Habitat
conditions ranged from poor in much of Alberta, parts
of Montana, and western Saskatchewan to fair-to-good
in most other areas. Only portions of northern
Manitoba and the Dakotas had excellent habitat
conditions. In Alaska, a significant cooling trend
resulted in ice breakup 2-3 weeks later than normal.
Winter and spring also were warm and dry in the
eastern survey area. A seemingly early spring
cooled down markedly, especially in Labrador,
Newfoundland, and eastern Quebec. In these
easternmost regions, spring-like conditions arrived 2-
3 weeks behind normal. Water levels in lakes and
ponds in southwestern Ontario, Maine, Nova Scotia,
and New Brunswick were higher than in 1999, when
the East suffered a drought. Drier-than-normal
conditions persisted in southern Ontario and
southern Quebec, while southwest Ontario, Maine,
and the Atlantic Provinces experienced heavy
thunderstorms and severe flooding during May.
Overall, habitat conditions in the east were generally
good, with the exception of some areas of southern
Ontario and south-central Quebec.
In 2000, the estimated breeding population of all
ducks (excluding scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks,
mergansers, and wood ducks) in the traditional
survey area was 41.8 ± 0.7 million birds (Table 2).
6
This was similar (P=0.12) to the 1999 record estimate
of 43.4 ± 0.7 million birds, was 27% above the long-term
(1955-99) average (P<0.01), and was the fourth
highest total-duck estimate since 1955.
Approximately 59% of the ducks were found in the
prairie-pothole region (strata 26-49), a percentage
similar to that of the 1970s (60%) when wetland and
upland conditions in this region were considered
good. The 2000 total-duck population estimate for
the eastern survey area (excluding canvasbacks,
redheads, ruddy ducks, eiders, long-tailed ducks and
wood ducks) was 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds (Table 2).
This was similar to the 1999 estimate of 3.2 ± 0.2
million birds.
Throughout much of June 2000, much of the
prairies received heavy rains. Areas receiving
abundant precipitation included parts of
Saskatchewan (except for the very dry west-central
part of the province), Manitoba, northern and central
Alberta, southeastern Montana, and North Dakota.
In many areas, this precipitation increased breeding
habitat quantity and quality relative to May conditions,
especially for late nesting species, and enhanced
brood-rearing habitats. However, in other areas,
production was likely reduced due to flooding and
subsequent nest loss. In southern Saskatchewan
and Montana, improved habitat conditions did not
help production, because either the birds had already
left the area before the onset of abundant rainfall
(Saskatchewan) or most of the rain soaked into the
ground (Montana). In general, July habitat conditions
were much improved over May conditions in most of
the prairies, with the exceptions of South Dakota and
southern Alberta.
Results of the July Production Survey indicated
that the index of July ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 3.9 ± 0.1 million
ponds. Although this was the fourth highest recorded
estimate for the region, it was 26% below the 1999
record-high estimate of 5.2 ± 0.3 million ponds, but
39% above the long-term average. The number of
July ponds in Prairie Canada was 2.5 ± 0.1 million.
This was unchanged from the 1999 index of 2.8 ± 0.1
million, but 41% above the long-term average. The
number of July ponds in the north-central U.S. was
1.4 ± 0.1 million, the third highest index for the region.
This was 42% below the 1999 record high estimate
of 2.4 ± 0.2 million, and 48% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in the north-central
U.S. and Prairie Canada combined was 12% below
the 1999 index, but 25% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in Prairie Canada
and the north-central U.S. were 10% and 5% below
1999 estimates, respectively. Brood estimates in
Prairie Canada were 37% below the long-term
average, while counts were 134% above the long-term
average in the north-central U.S.
2001 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Populations,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Spring weather was generally warmer than
normal across Canada, and temperatures were at
or slightly below normal in most of the northern
U.S. However, precipitation and habitat
conditions in the traditional survey area were
variable. The estimate of May ponds (north-central
U. S. and Prairie Canada combined)
increased 18% (4.6 ± 0.1 million, P=0.001)
compared to 2000, but not statistically different
from the long-term average (-6 %, P=0.07). The
May pond estimate for prairie Canada was 2.7 +
0.1 million, 13% higher than the 2000 estimate,
but 20% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
For the north-central U. S. the estimate was 1.9 +
0.09 million ponds, 24% greater than last year,
and 25% above the long-term average.
Continued drought produced fair-to-poor
conditions in most of Alberta, central and southern
Saskatchewan, and eastern Montana. By
contrast, North and South Dakota generally had
good-to-excellent water conditions, with the best
conditions in the eastern portions of these states,
and drier conditions to the west. Southern
Manitoba and extreme southeastern
Saskatchewan have had higher-than-normal water
conditions for the past two years, and this residual
water, together with above-normal precipitation
due to an early, snowy winter, produced excellent
habitat for breeding ducks. Average to above-average
precipitation also made for excellent
wetland conditions across most of northern
Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Record drought
and poor wetland conditions were the rule in
Alberta, with the exception of the northernmost
areas, which had above-average winter and
spring precipitation. Good conditions for breeding
ducks prevailed in the Northwest Territories,
except for a small northern area that was rated
only fair due to late breakup of ice on wetlands
that reduced available breeding habitat for early-nesting
species. In Alaska, breeding conditions
depend largely on the timing of spring, as wetland
conditions are less variable than on the prairies.
Although winter temperatures were mild, spring
was late, and waterfowl production will likely be
below average to the north and west, and average
to the south and east. Overall, conditions were
good in the traditional survey area, and average to
above-average waterfowl production is expected.
7
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 553 426 -23 0.032 736 -42 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1404 1536 +9 0.277 2004 -23 <0.001
S. Manitoba 466 786 +69 <0.001 685 +15 0.089
Subtotal 2422 2747 +13 0.031 3425 -20 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 429 346 -19 0.040 536 -35 <0.001
Eastern Dakotas 1095 1548 +41 <0.001 982 +58 <0.001
Subtotal 1524 1893 +24 0.006 1518 +25 <0.001
Grand Total 3947 4640 +18 0.001 4916 -6 0.071
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2000; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2000.
Millions
Prairie Canada
Northcentral U.S.
Total
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
8
In the eastern survey area, conditions for
breeding ducks were variable but generally good.
Southern Ontario and northern New York enjoyed
an early spring and normal precipitation. With
wetland basins nearly full, the outlook for breeding
ducks was good. Spring-like weather also came
early in Quebec, with good-to-excellent habitat in
the central and northern portions. However,
southern Quebec was drier, and conditions there
ranged from fair to poor. In Maine and the
Maritime provinces spring-like weather was late,
with lower-than- normal temperatures, but above-average
precipitation, and habitat conditions were
rated good throughout the region. Overall,
eastern habitats were in good condition, with
average to above-average waterfowl production
expected.
In 2001, the estimated breeding population of all
ducks (excluding scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks,
mergansers, and wood ducks) in the traditional
survey area was 36.1 ± 0.6 million birds (Table 2),
14% below (P = 0.001) last year’s estimate of 41.8 ±
0.7 million birds, but 9% above the long-term (1955-
2000) average (P<0.001). Approximately 60% of
these ducks were found in the prairie-pothole region
(strata 26-49), the same percentage recorded during
the 1970s, which is the historical benchmark for good
wetland conditions in this region. Total duck
numbers increased compared to the 2000 estimate
(P=0.02) and was above the long-term average in
Southern Manitoba (P= 0.007). Estimates decreased
compared to last year and were below long-term
averages in central and northern Alberta-northeastern
British Columbia-Northwest Territories,
northern Saskatchewan-northern Manitoba-western
Ontario, southern Saskatchewan and southern
Alberta, (P<0.05). The 2001 total-duck population
estimate for the eastern survey area (excluding
canvasbacks, redheads, ruddy ducks, eiders, long-tailed
ducks and wood ducks) was 3.3 ± 0.2 million
birds (Table 2). This was similar to last year’s total
duck estimate of 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds. In some
other areas where surveys are conducted, measures
of precision for estimates are provided (northeastern
U.S., Wisconsin, Michigan, California, Washington,
and British Columbia). Total duck abundances were
similar to last year’s estimates in the northeastern
U. S., California, British Columbia and Michigan
(P>0.08). Total ducks in California and Michigan
were more than 25% below their long-term averages
(P<0.01; Table 2, Appendix E). Of the states without
measures of precision for total-duck numbers,
Minnesota’s estimate decreased compared to last
year’s estimate, while Nebraska’s increased
(Appendix E). In Nevada, total ducks decreased over
2000 levels, and in Washington, total duck numbers
increased.
Trends in abundances and annual breeding
population estimates for 10 principal duck species
from the traditional survey area are provided in
Figure 2, Table 5, and Appendix F. The dashed lines
in the species graphs in Figure 2 represent the
population goal of the North American Waterfowl
Management Plan for the traditional survey area.
Mallard abundance was 7.9 ± 0.3 million, which is
17% below last year’s estimate of 9.5 ± 0.3 million
(P<0.01) estimate and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.08) (Table 3). Mallard numbers were
significantly below 2000 levels in three regions of the
traditional survey area - central and northern Alberta-northeastern
British Columbia, northern
Saskatchewan –northern Manitoba-western Ontario,
southern Saskatchewan, and Montana-western
Dakotas (P≤0.05), and were below long-term
averages (P<0.01) in northern Saskatchewan –
northern Manitoba-western Ontario, southern
Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. However,
mallards were well above long-term averages in
Alaska-Yukon Territory-Old Crow Flats, and the
eastern Dakotas (P < 0.001). In other areas where
surveys are conducted and measures of precision for
estimates are provided (the same states as for total
ducks, as well as Minnesota), mallard abundances
were similar to those of 2000 (P ≥ 0.46), with the
exception of Wisconsin, where mallard abundance
decreased by 55% from 2000 levels (P<0.01; Table
3, Appendix E). State-specific mallard populations
did not differ from long-term averages, except in
Michigan (-27%, P=0.01, Table 3, Appendix E). In
Nebraska and Washington, where measures of
precision are unavailable, mallard abundance
increased compared to that of last year, while
mallards in Nevada decreased (Appendix E).
Blue-winged teal abundance was 5.8 ± 0.3 million,
23% below last year’s estimate of 7.4 ± 0.4 million
(P=0.001), but still 29% above the long-term average
(P<0.001). Green-winged teal abundance was 3.2 ±
0.2 million, 39% above the long-term average
(P<0.001), but 21% lower than last year (P=0.007).
Gadwall (2.7 ± 0.1 million, +66%) and northern
shovelers (3.3 ± 0.2 million, +60%) were above their
long-term averages (P<0.01), while northern pintails
(3.3 ± 0.3 million, -23%) and scaup (3.7 ± 0.2 million,
-31%) remained below their long-term averages
(P<0.001). American wigeon and canvasback
estimates were similar to those of last year (P≥ 0.19)
and to long-term averages (P > 0.31).
Annual breeding population estimates for 10
principal species in the eastern survey area are
provided in Table 6 and Appendix G. Abundances
9
Table 2. Total duck breedinga population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Region 2000 2001 % P LTA 2000 2001
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats
6727 6427 -4 0.449 3335 +93 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories
6900 5489 -20 <0.001 7297 -25 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
3468 2656 -23 0.014 3552 -25 <0.001
S. Alberta 3485 2521 -28 <0.001 4460 -43 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 7665 6442 -16 0.001 7429 -13 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1486 1793 +21 0.016 1543 +16 0.007
Montana and Western Dakotas 1726 1588 -8 0.271 1625 -2 0.692
Eastern Dakotas 10382 9261 -11 0.049 3983 +133 <0.001
Total 41838 36177 -14 <0.001 33224 +9 <0.001
Eastern Survey Area 3204 3337 +4 0.757 3075 +9 0.351
Other Regions
British Columbia c 8 7 -5 0.847 8 -2 0.917
California 625 478 -23 0.078 666 -28 0.001
Michigan 746 540 -28 0.151 741 -27 0.014
Northeastern U.S. d 1926 1393 -28 0.349 1403 -1 0.913
Wisconsin 770 543 -29 <0.010 542 <+1 e
a Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, scoter, and merganser in traditional survey area; excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback and ruddy
duck in eastern survey area; species composition for other regions varies.
b Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2000; eastern survey area=1996-2000; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
c Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
d Includes all or portions of DE, CT, MD, MA, NH, NH;, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Not estimable from current survey.
10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Region 2000 2001 % P LTA 2000 2001
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats
770 718 -7 0.489 315 +128 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories
1288 979 -24 0.029 1110 -12 0.103
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
1049 603 -42 0.001 1175 -49 <0.001
S. Alberta 833 744 -11 0.386 1143 -35 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 2267 1650 -27 <0.001 2117 -22 <0.001
S. Manitoba 368 446 +21 0.141 371 +20 0.090
Montana and Western Dakotas 622 463 -26 0.035 504 -8 0.381
Eastern Dakotas 2273 2301 +1 0.897 759 +203 <0.001
Total 9470 7904 -17 <0.001 7494 +5 0.078
Eastern Survey Area 212 286 +35 0.153 306 -7 0.661
Other Regions
British Columbia b 1 1 -5 0.778 1 -11 0.323
California 443 365 -18 0.316 423 -14 0.266
Michigan 345 295 -15 0.461 406 -27 0.012
Minnesota 318 321 +1 0.960 209 +53 d
Northeastern U.S. c 758 808 +7 0.481 754 +7 0.328
Wisconsin 368 164 -55 <0.010 543 <+1 d
a Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2000; eastern survey area=1996-2000; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
c Includes all or portions of DE, CT, MD, MA, NH, NH, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
d Value for test statistic was not available.
11
of individual species were similar to those of last
year, with the exception of ring-necked ducks
(0.35 ± 0.04 million, P=0.001) and buffleheads
(0.10 ± 0.02 million, P=0.05). Buffleheads
(P=0.03), goldeneyes (P=0.08), and lesser scaup
(P=0.08) were above their 1996-2000 averages in
the east. Green-winged teal (P=0.03) and ring-necked
ducks (P=0.002) were below their 1996-
2000 averages, and all other species were similar
to their long-term averages (P>0.14).
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by mid-winter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Mid-winter counts suggested that black duck
abundance in both flyways combined was similar to
2000 counts. Over both flyways, 270,000 black
ducks were estimated from mid-winter inventories.
This is 4% higher than the 2000 index (260,000), and
9% less than the 1991-2000 mean (287,000). In the
Atlantic Flyway, the mid-winter index was similar to
last year’s, up slightly from 223,000 in 2000 to
229,700, similar to the 1991-2000 mean (223,900).
In the Mississippi Flyway, the mid-winter estimate
increased 26% from 37,000 in 2000 to 46,400, which
is still 27% below the most recent 10-year mean
(63,200). In the eastern survey area, the 2000
estimate for breeding black ducks (422,000) was
similar to the 2000 estimate (397,000) and the 1996-
2000 average (485,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored
by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS),
a series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered at low
abundances along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term index of regional
populations of the species. Trends suggest that
numbers of wood ducks increased 3-6% per year
over the long-term (1966-2000) and short-term
(1980-2000). Specifically, in the Atlantic Flyway, the
BBS indicates a 5.5% annual increase in wood ducks
over the long-term and a 4.9% annual increase over
the short-term (P<0.001). In the Mississippi Flyway,
the BBS indicates a 4.2% annual increase over the
long-term and a 3.3% annual increase over the short-term
(P<0.05; J. Sauer, U. S. Geological Survey/
Biological Resources Division, unpubl. data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl production.
Good wetland conditions increase renesting and
brood survival. Throughout June, much of the
prairies received abundant precipitation, including
Saskatchewan (except for the very dry west-central
part of the province), Manitoba, southeastern
Montana, and North and South Dakota. In many
areas, precipitation and moderate temperatures
increased or maintained breeding habitat quantity
and quality relative to May conditions, especially for
late nesting species, and enhanced brood-rearing
habitats. In Montana, improved habitat conditions did
not help production, because rains came too late for
nesting ducks. In general, July habitat conditions
were similar to May conditions in much of the
prairies, with the exceptions of southern Alberta and
northeastern Montana, where continued drought
made conditions worse. However, excellent habitat
in the northern prairie provinces likely will not lead to
high production there, as low breeding-pair counts in
these regions suggest there were few birds there to
take advantage of these good nesting conditions.
Results of the July Production Survey indicate
that the number of ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 2.9 ± 0.09
million ponds (Fig. 3, Table 4). This was 26%
below last year’s estimate of 3.9 ± 0.1 million
ponds (P<0.001), and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.74). The number of July ponds in
Prairie Canada was 1.8 + 0.07 million. This was
25% below last year’s estimate of 2.5 ± 0.1 million
(P<0.001) but similar to the long-term average
(P=0.47). The number of July ponds in the north-central
U.S. was 1.0 ± 0.06 million. This was 26%
below last year’s estimate of 1.4 ± 0.08 million,
and similar to the long-term average (P=0.48).
The number of broods in the north-central U.S.
and Prairie Canada combined was 11% lower
than last year’s estimate, but 15% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in Prairie
Canada and the North-central U.S. were 9% above
and 19% below last year’s estimates, respectively.
Brood indices in Prairie Canada were 33% below the
long-term average, while brood counts were 81%
above the long-term average in the north-central U.S.
The brood index in the Canadian boreal forest was
10% lower than last year’s, and 31% below the long-term
average.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions in
the eastern regions, as well as more detailed
information on regions in the traditional survey area,
are available in Waterfowl Population Surveys
reports, located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page at
http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html.
Some of the habitat information that follows was
taken from these reports.
14
Table 4. Estimated number (in thousands) of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 409 311 -24 0.022 477 -35 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1438 941 -35 <0.001 959 -2 0.841
S. Manitoba 604 587 -3 0.762 324 +81 <0.001
Subtotal 2451 1838 -25 <0.001 1760 +4 0.470
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 484 226 -53 <0.001 403 -44 <0.001
Eastern Dakotas 917 805 -12 0.217 562 +43 0.007
Subtotal 1402 1032 -26 <0.001 965 +7 0.478
Grand Total 3852 2870 -26 <0.001 2819 +2 0.740
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2000; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2000.
Millions
Prairie Canada
Northcentral U.S.
Total
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the traditional survey area.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Region 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Mallard 9470 7904 -17 <0.001 7494 +5 0.078
Gadwall 3158 2679 -15 0.048 1610 +66 <0.001
American wigeon 2733 2494 -9 0.240 2649 -6 0.307
Green-winged teal 3194 2509 -21 0.007 1806 +39 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 7431 5757 -23 0.001 4465 +29 <0.001
Northern shoveler 3521 3314 -6 0.423 2073 +60 <0.001
Northern pintail 2908 3296 +13 0.220 4289 -23 <0.001
Redhead 926 712 -23 0.041 624 +14 0.218
Canvasback 707 580 -18 0.189 563 +3 0.756
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 4026 3694 -8 0.264 5353 -31 <0.001
Totalb 41838 36177 -14 <0.001 33224 +9 <0.001
a Long-term average (1955-2000).
b Includes black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneneye, bufflehead, and ruddy duck. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed duck, merganser, and wood duck.
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimatesa (in thousands, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern
survey area.
Change from 2000 Change from LTAb
Region 2000 2001 % P LTA % P
Mergansers 400 429 +7 0.729 496 -14 0.435
Mallard 212 286 +35 0.153 306 -7 0.661
American Black Duck 397 422 +6 0.730 485 -13 0.271
American Wigeon 42 77 +86 0.192 61 +28 0.442
Green-winged teal 202 220 +9 0.671 314 -30 0.032
Lesser Scaup 116 204 +75 0.371 41 +392 0.080
Ring-necked duck 619 353 -43 0.001 533 -34 0.002
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 947 1032 +9 0.820 643 +61 0.075
Bufflehead 49 95 +93 0.054 47 +100 0.029
Scoters 182 179 -2 0.963 100 +78 0.137
Total 3204 3337 +4 0.757 3075 +9 0.351
a Includes gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, and scaup. Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback, and ruddy duck.
bLong-term average from 1996.
16
Southern Alberta: The fall, winter, and spring,
southern Alberta (strata 26-29) received below-normal
precipitation in most areas. Environment
Canada reported average-to-slightly above-average
temperatures for the November 2000 to
April 2001 period. In May, temperatures were
near normal and precipitation was generally below
average throughout most of the region. Areas
near the Milk River along the Montana border
were in poor condition. Most of the prairie
portions of the southern part of the province were
in fair to poor condition. The Aspen Parklands of
east-central were generally in fair condition, while
the area in a 20 mile radius around Edmonton and
Red Deer was in good condition. May ponds were
42% below the long-term average (P<0.001), and
23% below last year (P<0.001) when conditions also
were fairly dry. Low numbers of wetlands again
resulted in ducks crowding on remaining wetlands.
Total-duck abundance in southern Alberta was below
the long-term average (-43%, P<0.001) and below
2000 levels (-28%, P<0.001). Mallards (-35%),
northern pintails (-92%), gadwall (-17%), American
wigeon (-41%), blue-winged teal (-42%), redheads
(-55%), and canvasbacks (-52%) were below their
long-term averages (P<0.05). June precipitation in
southern Alberta was below normal, and condition of
most habitats remained fair-to-poor as of July. July
pond counts were 24% below the 2000 estimate, and
35% below the long-term mean. The July brood
index was similar to 2000 mean, and 56% below the
long-term mean.
Southern Saskatchewan: Another below-average
year for precipitation has resulted in poor-to-fair
upland and wetland habitat conditions across
most of the Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-
35) survey area. The majority of the survey area
received below-average precipitation during the
late summer and fall of 2000. However, the north-central
and northeast areas received well-below
average precipitation and whereas central
portions of the region received well-above-average
precipitation. Winter precipitation ranged
from average in the southeast, below average in
the central and northeast parts of the survey area,
and far below average in the west. Conditions did
not improve in April and May, and the ephemeral,
temporary, and seasonal wetlands that are
normally abundant during the spring survey were
notably absent. Normal temperatures
predominated across Southern Saskatchewan
from late summer through October 2000.
November and December were characterized by
below-average temperatures, and late winter and
spring were characterized by average to above-average
temperatures. The total duck population
estimate for southern Saskatchewan decreased
16% from the 2000 estimate, and was 13% below
the long-term mean. Some dabbling duck species
also decreased. The 2001 mallard population
estimate decreased 27% from the 2000 estimate
and dropped below the long-term mean for the
first time since 1994 (P<0.001). The northern
pintail estimate remained 47% below the long-term
mean (P<0.001), while the American wigeon
estimate was the lowest since 1990 and 61%
below the long-term mean (P<0.001). Although
the diving duck population estimate was down
15% compared to the 2000 estimate, individual
species estimates were not different from long-term
averages. As of July, habitat conditions in
southern Saskatchewan had not improved.
Generally, only artificial, permanent and large semi-permanent
wetlands remained available for brood-rearing.
Many dry basins in croplands have been
cultivated, as much of the province experienced
record to near-record drought. The July pond count
was 35% lower than the 2000 index and similar to the
long-term average. The July brood index was similar
to that of 2000, but 22% below the long-term average
for this region.
Southern Manitoba: Wetland conditions in Southern
Manitoba (stratum 25, strata 36-40) were generally
very good. Water levels and residual nesting cover
were excellent in west-central and southwestern
Manitoba, as high water levels in 2000 prevented
tillage close to wetlands. On many semi-permanent
wetlands, increases in emergent vegetation due to 3
years of high water provided good nesting habitat for
diving ducks. Total-duck estimates were 21% higher
than in 2000, and 16% above the long-term average
(P<0.01). Mallard, gadwall, blue-winged teal,
northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback
and redhead abundances did not differ from 2000
levels (P>0.1). Gadwall (+75%) and shoveler
numbers (+95%) were well above their long-term
averages, while American wigeon (-73%), northern
pintail (-63%), green-winged teal (-41%) and scaup (-
49%) were below their long-term averages (P<0.01).
However, northern pintail numbers increased by
117% (P=0.01) over the 2000 estimate. Intermittent
rainfall during June resulted in generally excellent
brood-rearing wetland conditions as of July. July
pond counts were at the third highest level recorded
for this region. The July pond count for this region
was similar to last year’s, and 81% above the long-term
average. The July brood index was 44% higher
than last year’s and similar to the long-term average.
17
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44),
conditions were generally drier than in 2000.
Continued drought in Montana resulted in poor
wetland conditions. In the western Dakotas, water
levels were better, and conditions were fair to good.
Grassland cover on lands enrolled in the
Conservation Reserve Program was plentiful, though
spring grass growth was slightly later than normal.
May ponds were down 19% from 2000 levels
(P=0.04) and 35% below the long-term average
(P<0.01). The number of total ducks was not
different from the 2000 estimate (P=0.27) or the long-term
average (P=0.69). Mallards decreased by 26%
(P=0.04) since 2000, but did not differ from the long-term
average. Gadwall (+113%) were above their
long-term average, and blue-winged teal (-40%) and
northern pintail abundances (-43%) were below long-term
averages (P<0.001). All other species were
similar to 2000 estimates and their long-term
averages (P>0.10). Rainfall in June and July
improved water conditions in the western Dakotas
but helped little in Montana. In most of Montana the
rain arrived too late to aid production, which will be
minimal. Despite the rain, Montana remains very dry,
particularly north of the Missouri River. Minimal late
nesting was reported throughout the survey area, but
brood-rearing conditions were good in much of the
western Dakotas, where fair to good production is
expected. The number of ponds in July was 53%
below last year’s estimate, and 44% below the long-term
average. The July brood index was 25% below
last year’s, and slightly below (-7%) the long-term
average.
Eastern Dakotas: In the eastern Dakotas (strata 45-
49), early fall was warm and dry, especially in
northwestern North Dakota, and the southern two-thirds
of South Dakota. Late-fall rains improved
wetland conditions across the region. Winter
precipitation was above normal in South Dakota, and
below normal in North Dakota, so that by the
breeding season, wetland conditions were generally
good to excellent across the region. The best
conditions were found in eastern South Dakota, and
were drier to the northwest; the poorest conditions
were in northwest North Dakota. May ponds were
41% higher than in 2000 (P<0.001), and 58% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). The total duck
estimate in the eastern Dakotas was 9.3 million birds,
11% lower (P=0.05) than last year’s record high
estimate of 10.4 million birds, but still 133% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). The mallard
estimate this year was a record high 2.3 million, and
is 203% above the long-term average. Gadwall (1.1
million, -38%) and blue-winged teal (3.2 million, -
24%) estimates were down significantly from last
year’s record high levels, but remained above their
long-term averages (P<0.001). Northern shoveler
(+39%) northern pintail (+93%) and canvasback
(+191%) numbers all were above 2000 levels
(P<0.02), and their long-term averages. Mallards
(+203%) and scaup (+85%) were above their
respective long-term averages, but unchanged from
last year (P>0.26). Both states experienced cool
temperatures and good precipitation through the first
3 weeks of June, but temperatures increased and
there was little precipitation in late June and early
July. Nonetheless, semi-permanent and permanent
wetlands were full and some seasonal wetlands
remained, providing good brood-rearing habitat in
most areas. July pond numbers were 12% lower than
in 2000, but 43% above the long-term average. The
2001 brood index was 166% above the long-term
average for this region, and 18% below last year’s
record high.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: In northern Saskatchewan and
northern Manitoba (strata 21-25) and western Ontario
(stratum 50), conditions were generally good-to-excellent
for breeding waterfowl. Winter precipitation
was average in most of northern Saskatchewan and
average to above-average in most of northern
Manitoba. However, breeding duck numbers
declined in the region; the total-duck estimate was
23% below that of 2000, and 25% below the long-term
average (P<0.02). Scaup (-56%), gadwall (-
47%), wigeon (-62%), pintail (-78%), mallard (-49%),
blue-winged teal (-46%), and redheads (-72%), were
all were below were all below long-term averages
(P<0.03). Only green-winged teal and northern
shoveler numbers were similar to long-term averages
(P>0.87). Conditions continued to look ideal across
much of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba as of
July. Water levels in lakes were high, but there was
little flooding. Streams and beaver ponds were full.
Habitat appeared excellent for brood survival in most
areas. Although nesting and brood-rearing
conditions were excellent, because of low breeding
pair numbers, the outlook for production in this region
is only good.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: Conditions were variable in
northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and
the Northwest Territories (strata 13-18, 20, 75-77). In
the southern regions of the survey area, conditions
were very dry, especially around Lesser Slave Lake,
and conditions were poor. Further north into Alberta
and northeastern British Columbia conditions
improved, as this area received normal winter and
18
spring precipitation, and this area was fair to good for
breeding waterfowl. Northern Alberta and the
Northwest Territories had above-average winter and
spring precipitation, and wetland conditions there
were excellent. The number of total ducks
decreased 20% (P<0.001) compared to 2000, and
was 25% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Mallards (-24%) and green-winged teal (-42%)
decreased from 2000 levels (P<0.03). Gadwall
(+179%) were above their long-term average, while
wigeon (-22%), blue-winged teal (-56%), Northern
pintail (-56%), and scaup (-46%) were below long-term
averages (P<0.05). Northern shoveler and
canvasback estimates did not differ from either 2000
estimates or their long-term averages (P>0.35). Late
rain improved conditions in the southern portion of
northern Alberta, but came too late to improve duck
production. Summer rains kept ponds and drainage
basins full, resulting in good quality brood-rearing
habitat, but low breeding pair numbers means
production will be below average.
Alaska and Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory: In
Alaska and Old Crow Flats (strata 1-12), breeding
conditions depend largely on the timing of spring
phenology, because wetland conditions are less
variable than on the prairies. Although winter
temperatures were mild, spring-like weather
arrived late. Below-average waterfowl production
was expected to the north and west, with average
production expected to the south and east. Total
duck numbers were similar to 2000, were the second
highest count on record, and remained 93% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). Green-winged teal
were recorded at a record high abundance. All
species estimates were unchanged compared to
2000 levels (P>0.15). Mallards (+128%), American
wigeon (+141%), green-winged teal (+238%),
Northern shovelers (+196%), Northern pintails
(+58%), and scaup (+26%) all were above their long-term
averages (P<0.03). Canvasback abundance
was similar to the long-term average (P>0.9). The
generally late spring suggests that production will be
below-average or average from this region this year.
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding waterfowl habitat
conditions in the eastern survey area (strata 51-56
and 62-69) were variable but generally good.
Southern Ontario and northern New York enjoyed
an early spring, and with wetland basins nearly
full, the outlook for breeding ducks is good.
Spring-like weather was also early in Quebec, with
good-to-excellent habitat in the central and
northern portions. However, southern Quebec
was drier, and conditions there ranged from fair to
poor. In Maine and the Maritime provinces warm
weather came late, with lower than normal
temperatures, but above-average precipitation.
Habitat conditions were rated good throughout the
region. The estimate of total ducks was unchanged
from 2000 and the 1996-2000 average. Ring-necked
ducks decreased below their 2000 level (-43%), while
buffleheads increased (+93%; P=0.05). Ring-necked
ducks (-34%), and green-winged teal (-30%) were
below the 1996-2000 average, while buffleheads
were 100% higher than average (P<0.03). Overall,
eastern habitats were in good condition, with
average to above-average production expected.
Other areas: The number of ducks observed in
British Columbia’s annual survey were similar to that
observed last year, but breeding habitat conditions
were below average, and worse than the previous
two years. A cold and dry spring meant poor wetland
conditions and late arrival of early-nesting species.
The Pacific Northwest generally experienced normal
levels of fall, winter and spring precipitation during
1998-2000, but conditions were dry this past winter.
The Washington total duck breeding index was
165,000, up from 143,600 last year. Mallard
numbers went from 48,000 last year to 63,000 in
2001. Fall, winter and spring precipitation was
normal in most of California and nesting habitat for
this year was average to below average. Duck
production is expected to be average to below
average. A lower than average fall flight is expected.
Total duck and mallard numbers remained
unchanged from last year, but total ducks were 28%
below the long-term average. Mallard numbers were
similar to the long-term average. Conditions in the
western U.S. were variable, generally good in mid-western
states such as Nebraska and Minnesota,
becoming drier to the west. In Nebraska, conditions
were substantially wetter than last year, with a 119%
increase in water areas counted in the annual aerial
survey. The estimated breeding duck population in
the Nebraska Sandhills increased 26% from last
year; in particular many diver species exhibited
dramatic increases over 2000. Mallards, gadwalls
and blue-winged teal all increased by more than 25%
relative to 2000. Conditions in Nevada were dry;
spring weather was about 2 weeks later than normal,
and poor duck production was expected. Conditions
were also dry in Wyoming and it is likely duck
production will be fair-to-poor. The Lake States
received abundant rain, and conditions were
generally good in Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Pond numbers decreased 49% in
Minnesota compared to 2000, and were 23% above
the 1968-2000 average. Mallard, blue-winged teal
and total duck numbers were unchanged compared
to 2000, but blue-winged teal were at their lowest
19
levels since 1983. Wisconsin total duck numbers
and mallards were down from 2000 levels by 29%
and 55%, respectively. In Michigan, mallard numbers
were similar to last year’s, but were 27% below the
1992-2000 long-term average. Total duck numbers
did not differ from last year’s level, and were 27%
below the long-term average. In the Mid-Atlantic
state, winter and spring temperatures were normal to
above- normal. Winter precipitation was below
normal, but normal to above normal in spring. In
New England, weather patterns were similar, except
that winter temperatures were below normal. Total
duck and mallard numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s
plot survey were similar to the 2000 estimates
(P>0.34) and to the long-term averages (P>0.34).
Mallard Fall-flight index
The size of the midcontinent mallard population,
which is comprised of mallards from the traditional
survey area, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,
was 8.7 million birds (Fig. 4). This was 18% lower
than that of 2000 (10.5 million, P<0.01). This year,
the weights associated with the midcontinent mallard
population models reflect continued support for the
hypothesis of strongly density-dependent
reproduction. Thus, the 2001 mid-continent mallard
fall-flight estimate of 10.5 million birds is predicted to
be lower (P=0.02) than the 2000 estimate of 11.2
million birds.
Millions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Year
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Fig. 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
References
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2001. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(http://www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2001. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
publication Downsview, ON.
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2001. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
(http://www.usds.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
Washington, D.C.
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in
L.H. Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P.
Havera, D.A. Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S.
Taylor, eds. Proceedings of the 1988 North
American Wood Duck Symposium, St.
Louis, MO.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2001 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington,
D.C. 47pp.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Waterfowl
Population Survey Section area reports.
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.
html.)
20
21
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of 30 populations of North American Canada
geese (Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross’s geese (C. rossii), emperor geese
(C. canagicus), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). Conditions for nesting
geese in Arctic areas ranged from poor in the west to excellent in the east. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, the North Slope,
the Mackenzie and Anderson River Deltas, and islands of the western Arctic all experienced delayed snowmelt which likely
reduced goose and swan productivity. In the central Arctic, spring phenology was near average. In much of the eastern
Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands, and Ungava Peninsula, phenology appeared to be earlier than average and nesting
conditions for geese and swans generally were favorable. Of the 27 populations for which current estimates were
available, 6 exhibited declines of more than 10% from previous annual estimates. Ten populations (4 resident populations
of Canada geese, cackling Canada geese, Western Central Flyway light geese, greater snow geese, both white-fronted
goose populations and western tundra swans) displayed significant positive trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Canada
geese exhibited a significant negative trend over the most recent 10-year period. Forecasts for production of young in 2001
varied regionally, but generally will be reduced in the western areas and improved in the eastern portions of North America.
This section summarizes information regarding the
status and expected fall flights of goose and tundra swan
populations in North America. Information was compiled
from a broad geographic area and is provided to assist
managers in regulating harvest. We have used the most
widely-accepted nomenclature for various waterfowl
populations, but they may differ from other published
information. Many of the 30 goose populations described
herein are comprised of more than one subspecies and
some light goose populations contain lesser snow geese
and Ross’s geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North America
nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of Alaska and
Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada goose populations
nest in southern Canada and the U.S. (“resident
populations”). Different populations are monitored by
various methods on breeding, migration, or wintering
areas. The annual production of young by northern-nesting
geese is influenced greatly by weather conditions
on the breeding grounds, especially the timing of spring
snowmelt and its impact on the initiation of nesting activity
(i.e., phenology). Persistent snow cover reduces nest site
availability, delays nesting activity, and often results in
depressed reproductive effort and productivity. In general,
goose productivity will be better than average if nesting
begins by late May in western and central portions of the
Arctic, and by early June in the eastern Arctic. Production
in the Arctic usually is poor if nesting is delayed much
beyond 15 June. For southern-nesting Canada goose
populations, recruitment rates are less variable and annual
productivity is more dependent on the size and age
structure of the breeding population. Due to the early
preparation of this report, the annual productivity of most
goose populations can only be predicted qualitatively,
based on habitat conditions and spring phenology.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from Federal,
State, and Provincial agencies and universities
(Appendices B, I, and J). Surveys include the Midwinter
Survey (MWS, conducted each January in wintering
areas), the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
(BPHS, see Duck section of this report), surveys
specifically designed for various populations, and others.
When survey methodology allowed, 95% confidence
intervals are presented with population estimates. The
10-year trends of population estimates were calculated
through regression of the natural logarithm of survey
results on year and the slope coefficient was tested for
equality to zero (t-test). Changes in population indices
between the current and previous years were calculated,
and where possible assessed with a z-test using the sum
of sampling variances for the 2 estimates.
Habitat conditions during the 2001 breeding season
were assessed using climate data and reports from field
biologists. The portion of North America covered by snow
or ice in early June was determined from Northern
Hemisphere Snow and Ice Boundary summaries prepared
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(http://hpssd1en.wwb.noaa.gov/sab/snow/archive/nhem).
These reports provide general information but may not
provide reliable assessment for all locations. Forecasts of
productivity were based on information from various
waterfowl surveys and interviews with field biologists.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Breeding ground conditions for northern-nesting geese
and swans generally improved from west to east across
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Greenland
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
Fig. 1. Important Arctic and sub-arctic nesting areas of North American geese.
22
23
the Arctic and subarctic in 2001. Biologists report
that spring phenology was late in northwestern
Alaska, the Mackenzie Delta, and islands of the
western Arctic. In the Queen Maud Gulf of the
central Arctic, spring phenology was near average,
but the nesting period was unusually cold and wet.
On Southampton Island, southern Baffin Island, and
the Ungava Peninsula, spring breakup was earlier
than average and conditions for waterfowl were
excellent. However, the eastern high Arctic
experienced heavy winter snowfall and nesting
phenology there may be slightly delayed. Spring
conditions in southeastern Alaska were near normal
although a late storm affected geese at the Copper
River Delta. Subarctic areas around Hudson and
James Bays also thawed early and nesting
conditions were good. Heavy winter snowfall and a
cold spring delayed nesting on insular
Newfoundland. The snow and ice cover graphic
(Fig. 2, provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration) indicates more
extensive coverage in portions of Alaska and the
central Arctic, and less coverage in northern
Quebec. (Fig. 2). More specific information for each
population follows.
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions influencing goose productivity vary less
from year to year in mid-latitude areas of North
America than in the Arctic. Given adequate wetland
numbers and the absence of flood events these
southern-nesting populations are reliably
productive. Wetland numbers in the eastern
portions of the Traditional Survey Area and much of
mid-latitude North America remain above average,
however western portions of the continent are
experiencing drought conditions. A cool late spring
may have reduced productivity in the Altantic Flyway.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese nest in Newfoundland and Labrador. They
generally mix during winter with AP and AFRP
Canada geese, although NAP have a more coastal
distribution than these other populations.
A total of 129,300 (69,300-189,200) Canada
geese were estimated during the 2001 BPHS in
NAP range (strata 66 and 67), down 26% from last
year (P=0.38). There is no trend in this estimate
since surveys were initiated in 1996 (P=0.15). The
2001 BPHS estimate of indicated pairs (singles plus
pairs) was 57,800, essentially unchanged from 2000
(58,000). The indicated pair estimate showed no
trend from 1996-2001 (P=0.34). A wet winter and
cold spring may have delayed nesting on insular
Newfoundland where geese were concentrated
along the coast during the BPHS. Nesting studies
here indicated reproductive effort was delayed
compared to prior years. A NAP fall flight smaller
than last year is expected.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentration occurs on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
AP surveys indicated a total spring population of
637,000 (470,500-803,400) geese in 2001, 1%
lower than last year (P=0.96, Fig. 4). The survey
estimate of 146,700 (114,900-178,400) breeding
pairs in 2001 is 57% higher than last year (P=0.05).
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America for 3-5 June, 2000 and 3 June, 2001. The figures
were produced from reports prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2000 2001
24
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America. Population names are abbreviated as in text.
25
The breeding pair estimate has shown no trend
since 1993 (P=0.12). However, this population has
made a rapid recovery since reaching a low of
29,000 breeding pairs in 1995. Since 1995, when
hunting seasons were closed, the breeding pair
estimate has increased an average of 23% per year
(P = 0.003). Nesting conditions appeared favorable
with very little snow present at the time of survey and
a high proportion of breeding pairs observed as
singles (females likely on nests). Ground studies
indicated nesting was earlier than normal near
Puvirnituq, Quebec and biologists expected high
nest success and good production. Nest density
increased nearly 100% from last year near Kuujjuaq,
Quebec. A fall flight larger than last year is
expected.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population inhabits southern Quebec, the southern
Maritime provinces, and all States of the Atlantic
Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2001 estimated there were
1,011,300 (817,300-1,214,500) Canada geese in the
northeastern United States (Fig. 5), similar (P>0.95)
to the previous year’s count. These estimates have
increased an average of 8% per year since 1991
(P<0.001). A cold wet spring in the northeast may
have delayed nesting by about a week but little
flooding of nest sites occurred. A large fall flight,
similar to last year is expected.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Lowlands to the west and south of James Bay. The
SJBP winters from southern Michigan to Mississippi,
Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 102,700 (74,800-130,600) Canada
geese in 2001, 15% higher than last year (P=0.43,
Fig. 6). There is no trend in this estimate since 1992
(P=0.19). In 2001 there were 34,150 (25,100-
43,200) breeding pairs, which is 12% lower (P=0.39)
than last year. Survey timing was good and molt
migrants likely were not a factor in this year’s survey.
Winter snowfall in the Hudson Bay Lowlands was
relatively light, April-May temperatures were mild,
and spring snowmelt was early. On Akimiski Island,
nesting phenology was the second earliest, on
record and indices of gosling production were
among the highest recorded since ground studies
began in 1993. High winds and precipitation
occurred in the Hudson Bay Lowlands 1-2 weeks
after hatch and may have impacted gosling survival.
With a higher total population and good productivity
a larger fall flight than last year is expected.
Fig. 5. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of Atlan-tic
Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 4. Estimated number of breeding pairs (and 95% confidence
intervals) of Atlantic Population Canada Geese in northern Que-bec.
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
26
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Lowlands west of James
Bay and south of Hudson Bay. MVP Canada geese
primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin and Illinois (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in May 2001
indicated a total population of 468,600 (388,300-
548,800) Canada geese, a 56% decline (P=0.04)
from last spring (Fig. 7). There is no trend in this
estimate since 1992 (P=0.59). The number of
coastal non-breeders present in 2001 was estimated
from the previous 10-year average. Biologists
estimated there were 176,600 (151,900-201,200)
nests in 2001, 5% fewer than in 2000 (P=0.67).
There is no 10-year trend for numbers of MVP nests
(P=0.23). The MVP breeding grounds experienced
light winter snowfall and relatively early spring,
similar to the SJBP range. At a new MVP study
area, spring phenology was early and goose
productivity was higher than previously observed at
other MVP sites. Although gosling production will be
only slightly reduced, biologists predict a fall flight
much smaller than last year due to the smaller
number of non-breeding geese.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all States. These large geese now
represent a significant portion of all Canada geese
in the Mississippi Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2001, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,371,100, which is 8%
lower than the 2000 estimate (Fig. 8). These
estimates have increased an average of 6% per
year since 1993 (P<0.001). Biologists reported that
conditions in Manitoba were very good for
production, but flooding and wet brood-rearing
periods may have reduced production in southern
Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. Other areas
expected good production and another large fall
flight is expected.
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
migrate and winter primarily in Manitoba, Minnesota,
and Missouri (Fig. 3).
The spring 2001 estimate of EPP geese was
215,400 (187,000-243,800), 22% lower than in 2000
(P = 0.01, Fig. 9). There has been no trend (P=0.46)
in the spring estimate over the last 10 years. The
2001 estimate for singles and pairs was 122,200
Fig. 9. Estimated number (and 95% CI) of Eastern Prairie Popula-tion
Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 7. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fig. 8. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population of
Canada geese during spring.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
27
(105,000-139,500), 6% lower (P=0.56) than last
year. Spring phenology was earlier in 2001 than in
2000. Nesting studies near Cape Churchill indicated
an earlier than average nesting season, and well-above
average nest densities, mean clutch size, and
nest success. Researchers also reported a large
increase in nesting snow geese on the Cape
Churchill study area and south to the Broad River.
Biologists expect a fall flight similar in size to last
year but which contains a higher proportion of young
geese.
Western Prairie Population/Great Plains
Population (WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of
mid-sized and large Canada geese that nest in
eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The
GPP is composed of large geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3).
These 2 populations are managed jointly and
surveyed during winter. During the 2001 MWS
survey, 682,700 WPP/GPP geese were counted,
15% more than the 2000 estimate (Fig. 10). This
index has increased an average 9% per year since
1992 (P<0.001). A 2001 index of the spring
population in a portion of WPP/GPP range from the
BPHS was 558,700. The BPHS estimates have
increased an average of 12% per year since 1992
(P<0.001). Habitat conditions during the nesting
period were very good in western Manitoba and
eastern Saskatchewan. States in GPP range
indicated production should be average to above
average in 2001. The WPP/GPP remains well
above objective levels and a fall flight larger than last
year is expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): TGPP
small Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on
the Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton,
and King William Islands, north from the Maguse
and McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast,
and west to the Queen Maud Gulf. TGPP Canada
geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas, and
northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix with
other Canada geese on wintering areas, making it
difficult to estimate the size of the population.
During the 2001 MWS in the Central Flyway
149,100 TGPP geese were tallied, a decrease of
50% from 2000 (Fig. 11). There has been no trend
in the Central Flyway count during 1992-2001
(P=0.82). Spring breakup was early during 2001 on
Southampton Island, and expected to be early on
Baffin Island and the northwest coast of Hudson
Bay. Previous fall surveys conducted on Baffin
Island suggest an increasing or stable population.
Little information on TGPP geese was available at
this writing, but based on early spring phenology
biologists expect good production. However,
considering decreases in winter indices from the
Central Flyway, the fall flight likely will be reduced
from last year.
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): SGPP
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from Queen Maud Gulf
west and south to the Mackenzie River and northern
Alberta. These geese winter in southeastern
Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the
Fig. 10. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter in the Central Flyway.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
28
During the 2001 MWS, biologists counted
164,100 SGPP Canada geese, 18% lower than in
2000 (Fig. 12). This index has declined 11% per year
since 1992 (P=0.03). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2001
BPHS estimated 116,600 (78,300-155,000) SGPP
geese, a 110% increase from 2000 (P=0.01). This
estimate showed no trend since 1992 (P=0.22).
Spring phenology in the central Queen Maud Gulf
was near normal, but the nesting period was cold
and snowy which may reduce nesting success.
Further north and west to Victoria Island, Kent
Peninsula, and the Mackenzie Delta, spring
phenology was delayed and production likely was
depressed. However, nesting conditions to the
south, in the boreal portions of SGPP range
appeared favorable. Based on a reduced January
population estimate and poor conditions over most
of the northern nesting range, a fall flight smaller
than last year is expected.
Hi-Line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2001 MWS indicated a total HLP population
of 252,900 geese, which is 7% below last year’s
estimate (Fig. 13). The MWS estimate has increased
an average of 7% per year since 1992 (P=0.05). An
estimate of the spring population was obtained from
the 2001 BPHS in areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta,
and Montana. The BPHS estimate was 252,800,
9% lower than the previous year (P=0.56). This
population estimate has increased 6% per year
since 1992 (P=0.002). Nesting conditions were poor
to fair throughout much of the breeding range.
Production was reduced due to drought in most
areas, and to spring storms and flooding in
Colorado. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be reduced from that of last year.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta, the inter-mountain
regions of Utah, Idaho, Nevada, and
Wyoming, and in western Montana. They winter
mainly in central and southern California, Arizona,
Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
During the 2001 MWS, 110,600 geese were
counted, an 8% increase from the previous year
(Fig. 14). There is no trend in MWS estimates since
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Hi-Line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
29
1992. The estimate of spring population derived
from the BPHS in 2001 was 161,400, 3% lower than
last year (P=0.92). The BPHS estimate has
increased 7% per year during the last 10 years
(P=0.02). Most RMP breeding areas are
experiencing drought, but low snowpack also
reduces spring flooding in inter-mountain areas.
Biologists expect near average production in most
areas and a large fall flight similar to last year.
Pacific Population (PP): These large geese nest
and winter west of the Rocky Mountains from British
Columbia south through the Pacific northwest to
California (Fig. 3).
Wetland abundance in the range of the PP has
been reduced due to prolonged drought. The
drought has reduced nesting potential for some
geese but also eliminated the nest destruction
caused by flooding. In California, the 2001 estimate
of breeding geese declined 26% from 2000, but the
estimate of production declined only 14%. In
Nevada, production in 2001 was expected to be
reduced due to the dry conditions. However, nesting
indices in Washington this spring were 10% higher
than last year and production was expected to be
average to above-average in Montana and Oregon.
The size of the fall flight can not be reliably predicted
without more information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest in the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska. Dusky Canada geese
principally winter in the Willamette Valley and Lower
Columbia River of Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2000-01 population estimate was
17,300 (12,000-22,600), which is 11% higher, but not
significantly different (P=0.62) than the estimate from
the previous winter (Fig. 15). There was no trend in
these estimates during 1991/92-2000/01 (P=0.63).
Preliminary results from the 2001 spring survey of
the Copper River Delta indicated the index of total
Dusky geese, and singles and pairs increased
roughly 15% from last year’s indices, which were the
lowest recorded in the 15 years of the survey.
Although nesting phenology appeared average, a
late snow storm during nesting caused substantial
nest abandonment. However, renesting effort was
high and second nests appeared to have very good
nest success, likely because more advanced foliage
provided better concealment from predators. A fall
flight similar to, or slightly improved from last year is
expected.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of western
Alaska. They primarily winter in the Willamette
Valley and Lower Columbia River of Oregon and
Washington (Fig. 3).
The population index for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-84. Since 1985 the index has
been a predicted fall population derived from spring
surveys on the Yukon Delta. The fall 2000 index was
211,900, less than 1% greater than 1999. This index
of cackling Canada geese has increased an average
of 8% per year since 1991 (P < 0.001, Fig. 16). In
the coastal zone of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in
spring 2001, total cackling geese increased 13%,
and single and paired geese were unchanged (+1%)
from 2000. Spring nesting phenology was later
than recent years on the Delta and nesting effort
in study plots was reduced by about 38% from
last year. In addition, nest success was reduced
Fig. 15. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 16. Number of cackling Canada geese estimated from fall and
spring surveys.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ross's
Geese
Greater Snow
Geese
Atlantic Brant
Pacific Brant
Mid-continent
Population
Pacific
Population
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Western Arctic Population
Population
Western Central Flyway
Population
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel Island
Population
Populations of
Brant
30
31
by high fox predation and major flooding in the
coastal zone. A fall flight smaller than last year is
expected.
Lesser Canada Geese: This population nests
throughout much of interior and south-central Alaska
and winters in Washington, Oregon, and California
(Fig. 3). Throughout the year, lesser Canada geese
mix with other Canada geese and no reliable
estimate of population size is available.
Spring breakup was late throughout western and
northwestern Alaska but areas to the southeast
experienced near normal spring phenology.
Eventually spring temperatures rose quickly and
caused substantial flooding along several interior
rivers. The estimated number of Canada geese
within lesser Canada goose population range from
the 2001 BPHS (strata 1-6, 8-12) was 272,500, 14%
higher than last year but showing no trend since
1992 (P=0.79). A fall flight similar to last year is
expected.
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese
currently breed only on the Aleutian Islands although
historically they nested from near Kodiak Island,
Alaska, to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now winter
along the Pacific Coast to central California. This
population declined precipitously in the early 1900s,
primarily due to the introduction of foxes to its
nesting islands. The Aleutian Canada goose was
federally listed as endangered in 1967. When the
recovery program began in 1974, the population
numbered approximately 800 birds. Currently the
population is estimated at nearly 30,000 and the
population was delisted in March 2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neck-banded birds in Modesto,
California 2000-01 was 29,800, 11% lower than, but
statistically similar (P=0.50) to last year’s estimate
(Fig. 18). Information on breeding ground conditions
is not available, so it is not possible to provide a fall
flight prediction.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross’s geese, including both white and blue
color phases, and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) subspecies of snow
goose. Another cumulative term, Mid-continent
Light Geese, includes lesser snow and Ross’s
geese of 2 populations, the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross’s Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but some nest along
western coast of Hudson Bay and Southampton,
Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's geese are
represented in 3 different populations of light geese
(MCP, WCFP, and WAWI) and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Mexico, and Texas with
increasing numbers in Louisiana (Fig. 17).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross’s
goose population is increasing rapidly and has
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total wintering population size are not
available, but surveys on major wintering areas
indicate increases in range and proportion of Ross's
geese. The largest colony in the Queen Maud Gulf
is at Karrak Lake. Researchers determined the
nesting population there has grown at 10% per year
from 1993-2000 (P=0.02). Spring phenology at
Karrak Lake was near normal in 2001, but the
nesting and hatching period was colder and wetter
than normal. These conditions may reduce gosling
production and biologists expect average to slightly
below average production from the Queen Maud
Gulf. Nesting conditions for Ross’s geese in areas
of range expansion were generally favorable (poor
on Banks Island, but good on the Hudson Bay coast
and Southampton Island). Although production will
likely be similar to last year, the size of the fall flight
cannot be predicted without an annual index to the
size of the breeding population.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): This population,
including lesser snows and increasing numbers of
Ross’s geese, nests along the west coast of Hudson
Bay and on Southampton and Baffin Islands
(Fig. 17). These geese winter primarily in eastern
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from winter Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
estimates and mark-resight methods.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
32
During the 2001 MWS, biologists counted
2,341,300 light geese, about 2% fewer than last year
(Fig. 19). The MWS index for the MCP has declined
for the last 3 years and no longer exhibits a 10-year
trend (P=0.11). The timing of spring breakup was
favorable for MCP geese across most of their range.
On Southampton Island spring phenology was
estimated to be 2 weeks earlier than average. South
Baffin Island had fewer spring blizzards than usual
and an early spring breakup. Areas of the Hudson
Bay Lowlands from La Perouse Bay to Cape
Henrietta Maria also experienced spring weather
very favorable to geese. This year biologists
observed a substantial increase in the usually low
number of snow goose nests between Cape
Churchill and the Broad River on the Hudson Bay
coast. Indices of breeding snow geese at the Cape
Henrietta Maria colony increased to 129,000 in
2001, up 47% from last year. Snow geese also
reestablished a small nesting colony west of Winisk,
Ontario and the number of nests increased at the
small colony on Akimiski Island. Although spring
phenology was beneficial to nesting geese and plant
growth in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, periodic high
winds and precipitation events during the brood-rearing
period may have reduced gosling survival.
Early spring phenology throughout much of the MCP
breeding range suggests the fall flight will be larger
than produced by last year’s poor production.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is comprised primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese breed in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage in fall in eastern Alberta and western
Saskatchewan and spend the winter in southeastern
Colorado, New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and
the northern highlands of Mexico (Fig. 17).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 105,800
geese were counted in January 2001, 23% fewer
than last year (Fig. 20). These MWS estimates have
increased 8% per year since 1992 (P=0.07).
Biologists working near Karrak Lake in the Queen
Maud Gulf region reported that spring phenology
was near average but the nesting and hatching
period was colder and wetter than usual. These
conditions may reduce gosling production and
biologists expect average to slightly below average
production from the Queen Maud Gulf. Breeding
conditions deteriorated to the west. At Sachs Harbor
on Banks Island, spring breakup was the latest
recorded since 1960. Snow goose nesting
phenology on Banks Island was delayed and
biologists estimated a smaller than normal
proportion of geese attempted to nest. Biologists
also report delayed and reduced nesting effort at the
Anderson River and Kendall Island colonies.
Production likely will be poor from western areas and
near average in eastern areas. Despite a lower
winter index in 2001, a fall flight similar to last year’s
fall flight (with poor production) is expected.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Fig. 20. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway Population
light geese during winter.
Fig. 19. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light geese
(lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
33
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, Jenny Lind
Island, the western Queen Maud Gulf region) or
Wrangel Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population winters
in central and southern California, New Mexico, and
Mexico; the WI segment winters in the Puget Sound
area of Washington and in northern and central
California (Fig. 17). Winter ranges overlap in
California and interchange of individuals between
the two breeding sites may occur. Separate winter
counts for the WA and WI segments are not
obtainable because of commingling with each other
and other light geese.
The number of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway
in fall of 2000 was estimated at 656,800 individuals,
which is 13% larger than estimated in 1999 (Fig. 21).
There is no trend in this estimate during fall 1991-
2000 (P=0.36). Biologists working at nesting
colonies on Banks Island, Kendall Island, and the
Anderson River reported a late spring breakup and
delayed nesting, and predicted below-average
production. On Wrangel Island the total spring
population was estimated at 105,000, 11% higher
than last year. Biologists estimated 25,000 nests
were present with an average clutch size of 3.6
eggs, both similar to last year. Although production
from the WI should be similar to last year, anticipated
poor production from the proportionately larger WA
population should result in a reduced fall flight of the
WAWI this year.
Greater snow geese: This subspecies nests
principally on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere, and
Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. They winter along
the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to North Carolina
(Fig. 17).
The preliminary estimate from the spring 2001
photographic survey of greater snow geese in the St.
Lawrence Valley was 690,300. The 2001 estimate
was 15% below last year’s final and record high
estimate of 813,900 geese (Fig. 22). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 6% per year since 1992 (P<0.001). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2001
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 280,200, a 40%
decrease from the previous survey. Midwinter
counts have increased an average of 6% per year
during 1992-2001 (P=0.05). The largest known
greater snow goose colony is on Bylot Island.
Winter snowfall on Bylot was above average.
However, spring snowmelt progressed rapidly and
median nest initiation was 13-14 June, just 2-3 days
later than average. Remaining snow may have
limited the availability of nest sites. Nest densities in
2001 were similar to last year but not as high as in
peak years of 1997 and 1998. Nest success and
conditions at hatch were favorable. Biologists
expect good production from this colony. A fall flight
similar to last year is expected.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population (PP): These geese primarily
nest in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska and
winter in the Central Valley of California (Fig. 17).
The population index for this population was a fall
estimate 1979-99. Beginning in 2000 the population
index has been a predicted fall population derived
from spring surveys on the Yukon Delta. The 2000
index is 307,000, an increase of 15% from the fall
1999 estimate (Fig. 23). Spring surveys indicated
total white-fronts and breeding pairs increased 27%
Fig. 22. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population of light geese during winter.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
34
and 46%, respectively, from last year’s survey.
Spring survey estimates have increased an average
of 10% per year from 1992-2001 (P<0.001). Spring
phenology on the Delta was delayed but nesting
surveys indicated a slight increase in nesting effort
from last year. High nest predation rates by an
unusually high number of foxes in coastal areas and
the late spring likely reduced production. Based on
a higher fall estimate but reduced production, a fall
flight similar to last year is expected.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): These white-fronted
geese nest across a broad region from
central and northwestern Alaska across the central
Arctic to the Foxe Basin. They concentrate in
southern Saskatchewan during the fall and winter in
Texas, Louisiana, and Mexico (Fig. 17).
In the fall of 2000, 1,067,600 MCP geese were
counted in Saskatchewan and Alberta, an increase
of 11% from the 1999 estimate (Fig. 23). This
population estimate has increased 6% per year
during 1992-2000 (P=0.07). Spring phenology on
MCP breeding grounds varied from late in northern
and interior Alaska and the Mackenzie and
Anderson River Deltas to near average in the Queen
Maud Gulf. Flooding along interior Alaska river
systems, and a cold nesting period in the Queen
Maud Gulf likely reduced production in those areas.
A fall flight similar to last year is expected.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from Massachusetts
to North Carolina (Fig. 17).
The 2001 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 145,300, 8% less than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 24). No trend was detected (P=0.72)
in this estimate over the most recent 10-year period.
Spring breakup in 2001 was early in the eastern
Arctic; up to 2 weeks earlier than average on
Southampton Island. The advanced phenology is
expected to increase production on the northern
breeding grounds of brant. A larger fall flight than
last year is expected.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and North Slope,
Banks Island, other islands of the western and
central Arctic, the Queen Maud Gulf, and Wrangel
Island. They winter as far south as Baja California
and the west coast of Mexico (Fig. 17).
The 2001 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 124,700 brant, 8% lower than
the previous year’s count (Fig. 24). No trend was
evident in this estimate during 1992-2001 (P=0.37).
Spring breakup was later than recent years on the
Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and later than average on
the North Slope, Banks Island, and likely much of
the Pacific Brant’s breeding range. Brant nest
density and success were reduced substantially in
the 5 Yukon Delta colonies. Nest success was
reduced by an unusually high fox population and by
major flooding in the coastal zone during mid-June.
A fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This
recently recognized population of brant nest on
the Parry Islands of the Northwest Territories.
The population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Fig. 24. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific populations of
brant during winter.
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific
Populations of greater white-fronted geese during fall.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pacific
Mid-continent
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
35
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far south
as Mexico. Breast and belly plumage of WHA
brant are predominantly gray, intermediate
between Atlantic brant and black brant, but other
color morphs have been captured in molting flocks
on breeding areas. The development of a
management plan and monitoring program are
underway for this newly designated population.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of the emperor goose is
restricted to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with the
largest concentration on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
in Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively short
distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian Islands
(Fig. 26). Since 1981, emperor geese have been
surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2001 survey estimate was 84,400
geese, 35% higher than last year's count (Fig. 25).
The 3-year running average is now 67,200 geese.
No trend was detected in the number of geese
counted during 1992-2001 (P=0.75). Spring indices
of breeding pairs and total birds collected from the
2001 Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta coastal survey
increased 36% and 74%, respectively, from last
spring. Spring breakup and nesting phenology were
later than in recent years on the Yukon-Kuskokwim
Delta. Emperor goose nest densities were reduced
by 60% from last year and nest destruction rates
were high due to an abnormally large fox population.
A fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population: These swans nest along the
coastal lowlands of western Alaska, particularly
between the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. They
winter primarily in California, Utah, and the Pacific
Northwest (Fig. 26).
The 2001 MWS estimate of 90,300 swans was
essentially unchanged (+1%) from the 2000 estimate
(Fig. 27). However, this population index has been
increasing at an average rate of 5% per year since
1992 (P=0.09). The spring 2001 estimates of total
swans, breeding pairs, and nests on the Yukon-
Kuskokwim Delta declined 16%, 14%, and 29%,
respectively, from last spring. Spring breakup in
western Alaska in 2001 was later than in recent years
and results of nest plots surveys indicate nesting
effort was reduced by about 10% from last year. A
fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Eastern Population: Eastern Population tundra
swans nest from the Seward Peninsula of Alaska to
the northeast shore of Hudson Bay and Baffin Island.
These birds winter in coastal areas from Maryland to
North Carolina (Fig. 26)
During the 2001 MWS, 98,200 eastern tundra
swan were observed, 5% lower than last year (Fig.
27). During the last 10 years there has been no
trend in this estimate (P=0.25). In the western
portion of this population’s breeding range spring
phenology was delayed and swan production likely
will be reduced. Indices of tundra nesting swans in
Alaska (strata 8-11) in 2001 increased 13% from last
year, but the number of swans observed with nests
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 26. Approximate range of the Emperor goose, and eastern
and western swan populations in North America.
Fig. 25. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during May
surveys.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
36
declined to about 50% of average. East of the
Queen Maud Gulf, spring phenology was early and
nesting conditions should be good. Overall, a fall
flight similar to last year is expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
Fig. 27. Estimated numbers of the Eastern and Western
Populations of tundra swans during winter.
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska and Yukon Territory (Old Crow Flats): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories: C. Ferguson and P. Corr
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba: F. Roetker and J. Kreilich Jr.
Southern and Central Alberta
Air E. Buelna and A. Davenport
Ground D. Duncan a, P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, R. Russell b, B. Peers c, T. Matthews c,
M. Johnson a, L. Crowe a, C. Procter a, J. Spenst b, S. Witham c, M. Barr c
Southern Saskatchewan
Air P. Thorpe, K. Bollinger, R. King, and H. Bell
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, C. Downie a, M. Hosegood a, C. Lévesque a, P. Nieman a, C. Park
a, A. Williams a, D. Caswell a, M. Schuster a, P. Rakowski a, D. Pisiak b, M. Van Osch c, M. Blanchard a,
J. Galbraith a, F. Baldwin Jr a., A. Dupuis a, B. Carles b
Southern Manitoba
Air R. King, and H. Bell
Ground D. Caswell a, M. Schuster a, P. Rakowski a, D. Pisiak b, M. Van Osch c, G. Ball b, M. Blanchard a, J.
Galbraith a, F. Baldwin Jr. a, A. Dupuis a, G. Hochbaum a, B. Carles b
Montana and Western Dakotas
Air J. Voelzer and R. Bentley
Ground A. Arnold d and V. Griego
Central and Eastern Dakotas
Air J. W. Solberg and S. Thomas
Ground G.T. Allen, M.Ellingson b, P.R. Garrettson, F. Prellwitz
Northern Quebec: J. Wortham and M. Francke
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec: M. Koneff, C. Kitchens-Hayes, D. Holtby b, M. Miller b
Central and Western Ontario: W. Butler, B. Fisher, D. Holtby b, J. Drahota, and B. Raftovich
Maine and Maritimes: J. Bidwell and M. Drut
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and 22 participants from the Candian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited
Canada, British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, private organizations
California
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Adolf b
Ground D. Loughman d, J. Laughlin d, P. Lauridson d, and J. Kwolek d
Colorado: R. Garcia, K. Stone, C. Wagner b, J. Haskins b, J. Hicks b, J. Gammonley b, J. Wenum b, J. Olterman b,
D. Younkin b
Michigan: A. Karr b, B. Lercel b, B. Rogers b, B. Scullon b, B. Rudolph d, D. Luukkonen d, E. Flegler b, E. Kafkasb,
G. Souillereb, J. Robison b, J. Niewoonder b, R. Matthews d, S. Whitcomb b, S. Chadwick b, T. Oliver b,
T. Gierman b
Minnesota
Air D. Stoltman b and J. Lawrence b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, B. Ehlers, R. Johnson, R. Papasso, T. Rondeau, P. Soler, K. Svendsgaard, W.
Brininger, L. Dooley, H. Gee, C. Hanson, N. Jerstad, J. Kelley, G. Tischer, S. Zodrow
Nebraska
Air D. Benning d and N. Lyman b
Ground R. Woods b, M. Vrtiska b, N. Lyman b, D. Benning d
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b and H. Taira b
Nevada N. Saake b
37
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Northeastern U.S.
Data Analysis: H. Heussman b and B. Raftovich
Connecticut: CT Wildlife Division Staff
Delaware: T. Whittendale b
Maryland: D. Brinker b, T. Decker b, T. DeWitt b, B. Evans b, C. Harris b, B. Harvey b, D. Heilmeier b, W. Henry b, R.
Hill b, L. Hindman b, B. Joyce b, B. Martin b, M. Mause b, B. Perry b, D. Price b, G. Timko b, D. Webster b
Massachusetts: H. Heussman b
New Hampshire: E. Robinson b, E. Orff b, J. Robinson b, T. Walski b, K. Tuttle b, K. Bordeau b, K. Bontaites b, M. Fay b, W.
Staats b, J. Kelley b, S. Wheeler b, W. Ingham b
New Jersey: T. Nichols b, P. Castelli b, J. Ziemba b, J. Garris b, J. Mangino b, L. Widjeskog b, D. Wilkinson b, T.
Walker, B. Willard, M. Canale b
New York: Staff of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania: J. Gilbert b, K. Jacobs b, I. Gregg b, J. Dunn b, C. Thoma b
Rhode Island: C. Allin b, B. Tefft b, C. Brown, Sr. b, L. Suprock b, T. Dudek, Sr. d
Vermont: D. Sausville b, J, Mlcuch b, B. Crenshaw b
Washington: D. Kraege b
Wisconsin
Air: L. Waskow b, B. Bacon b, R. McDonough b, C. Milestone b, and P.Samerdyke b
Ground: B. Bacon b, K. Belling b, T. Bahti b, J. Cole b, G. Dahl b, G. Dunsmoor b, D. Evenson b, R. Gatti b, B. Hill b,
J. Huff b, K. Jonas b, M. Kastler b, M. Lehner b, K. Morgan b, A. Nelson b, J. Skelton b, M. Verdon b, P.
David b, D. North b, S. White b, A. Kitchen, J. Ruwaldt, J. Trick, G. VanVreede
Wyoming L. Roberts b
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, B.
Raftovich, and J. Peterson for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (a
survey coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in
estimation of wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS/BRD for conducting the trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others – U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
38
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Coordinated Flyway-wide Surveys: M. Drut, K. Gamble, J. Peterson, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp, and R. Trost
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: W. Harveyb, L. Hindmanb, J. Hughesa, A. Reeda, and J. Rodriguea
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: M. Batemana and J. Serie
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population of Canada Geese: C. Allinb, P. Castellib, G. Chaskob, P. Corrb, G. Costanzob,
J. Dunnb, L. Garlandb, K. Jacobsb, H. W. Heusmannb, L. Hindmanb, K. Jacobsb, W. Lesserb, P. Merolab, E.
Robinsonb, and T. Whittendaleb
Southern James Bay Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Fillmanb, J. Leafloorb , K. Rossa, and L.
Waltonb
Mississippi Valley Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb , J. Berquistb, D. Fillmana, J. Leafloorb, K. Rossa,
and L. Walton
Mississippi Flyway Population Giant Canada Geese: S. Barrryb, J. Berquist b, E. Fleglerb, D. Graberb, M.
Hartmanb, M. Kraftb, J. Lawrenceb, D. Luukkonenb, R. Marshallab, R. Pritchertb, E. Warr, and G. Zennerb
Eastern Prairie Population of Canada Geese: D. Andersend, R. Foster, M. Gillespieb, D. Humburgb, S. Maxsonb,
B. Lubinski, R. Nack, and P. Telanderb
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations of Canada Geese: M. Kraftb, M. O’Meiliab, M. Vritiskab
Tall Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Caseb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa, and M. Mallorya
Short Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, J. Hinesa, and D. Niemana
Hi-Line Population of Canada Geese: A. Didiuka, J. Dubovsky, J. Gammonleyb, J. Hansenb, K. Lungleb, L.
Robertsb, and S. Tessmanb
Rocky Mountain Population of Canada Geese: T. Aldrichb, J. Dubovsky, T. Sandersb , T. Hinzb, J. Herbertb, K.
Lungleb, L. Robertsb, N. Saakeb, and G. Willb
Pacific Population of Canada Geese: A. Breaulta, B. Balesb, C. Feldheimb, T. Hinzb, D. Kraegeb, N. Saakeb, and D.
Yparraguirre
Dusky Canada Geese: B. Eldridge, M. Drut, T. Fondell, B. Larned, D. Logand, M. Naughton, R. Oates, D.
Robertson, T. Rotheb, and R. Trost
Lesser Canada Geese: B. Conant, R. King, E. Mallek, R. Oates, and M. Spindler
Cackling Canada Geese: M. Anthonyd, T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. Oates, B. Platte, D. Marks, B. Stehn,
and R. Trost
Aleutian Canada Geese: M. Drut, R. Trost
Greater Snow Geese: A. Bechetd, K. Dicksona, A. Fontainea, G. Gauthierd, J. Girouxd, J. Hughesa, M. Mallorya, and
A. Reeda
Mid-continent Population Light Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Foster, M. Gillespieb, D.
Humburgb, M. Mallorya, R. Rockwelld, K. Rossa, and P. Telanderb
39
Appendix B. Continued.
Western Central Flyway Population Light Geese: R. Alisauskasa, J. Bredyd, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa,
P. Latoura, and D. Warnera
Western Arctic Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese: V. Baranukd, S. Boyda, J. Bredyd, J. Hinesa,
D. Kraegeb, and R. Trost
Ross’s Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa, D. Warnera, and K. Warnera
Pacific Population of Greater White-Fronted Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, D. Marks, B. Platte, R.
Oates, and B. Stehn
Mid-Continent Population of Greater White-Fronted Geese: R. Alisauskasa, R. Caseb, B. Conant, K. Dicksona, J.
Hinesa, R. Kerbesa, E. Malleck, D. Niemana, M. Spindler, and K. Warnera
Pacific Brant: R. Anthonyd, R. Oates, and R. King
Atlantic Brant: K. Dicksona, M. Mallorya, A. Reeda
Western High Arctic Brant: D. Kraegeb, R. Trost
Emperor Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. King, D. Marks, R. Oates, B. Platte, and B. Stehn
Western Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. Oates, B. Stehn, and R. Trost
Eastern Population of Tundra Swans: J. Fischer, J. Hinesa, B. Larned, and R. Oates
aCanadian Wildlife Service
bState, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
cDucks Unlimited - Canada
dOther organization
All others - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
40
4
2
7
1
6
10 11
9
8
12 13
14
15
17
16
18
20
26
27
21
30
22
23
24
3
76 77
75
28
29 33
32
31
35
34
36
40 37
39 38
25
41
42
45
43 46
47
44 48
49
50 51
57
54
52
55
53
68
56 62
63
64
69
65
67
66
5
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the Breeding Waterfowl and Habitat Survey.
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors (in thousands) in portions of Prairie
Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada Northcentral U.S. a Total
Year Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
SˆE
1961 1977.2 165.4
1962 2369.1 184.6
1963 2482.0 129.3
1964 3370.7 173.0
1965 4378.8 212.2
1966 4554.5 229.3
1967 4691.2 272.1
1968 1985.7 120.2
1969 3547.6 221.9
1970 4875.0 251.2
1971 4053.4 200.4
1972 4009.2 250.9
1973 2949.5 197.6
1974 6390.1 308.3 1840.8 197.2 8230.9 366.0
1975 5320.1 271.3 1910.8 116.1 7230.9 295.1
1976 4598.8 197.1 1391.5 99.2 5990.3 220.7
1977 2277.9 120.7 771.1 51.1 3049.1 131.1
1978 3622.1 158.0 1590.4 81.7 5212.4 177.9
1979 4858.9 252.0 1522.2 70.9 6381.1 261.8
1980 2140.9 107.7 761.4 35.8 2902.3 113.5
1981 1443.0 75.3 682.8 34.0 2125.8 82.6
1982 3184.9 178.6 1458.0 86.4 4642.8 198.4
1983 3905.7 208.2 1259.2 68.7 5164.9 219.2
1984 2473.1 196.6 1766.2 90.8 4239.3 216.5
1985 4283.1 244.1 1326.9 74.0 5610.0 255.1
1986 4024.7 174.4 1734.8 74.4 5759.5 189.6
1987 2523.7 131.0 1347.8 46.8 3871.5 139.1
1988 2110.1 132.4 790.7 39.4 2900.8 138.1
1989 1692.7 89.1 1289.9 61.7 2982.7 108.4
1990 2817.3 138.3 691.2 45.9 3508.5 145.7
1991 2493.9 110.2 706.1 33.6 3200.0 115.2
1992 2783.9 141.6 825.0 30.8 3608.9 144.9
1993 2261.1 94.0 1350.6 57.1 3611.7 110.0
1994 3769.1 173.9 2215.6 88.8 5984.8 195.3
1995 3892.5 223.8 2442.9 106.8 6335.4 248.0
1996 5002.6 184.9 2479.7 135.3 7482.2 229.1
1997 5061.0 180.3 2397.2 94.4 7458.2 203.5
1998 2521.7 133.8 2065.3 89.2 4586.9 160.8
1999 3862.0 157.2 2842.3 256.8 6704.3 301.1
2000 2422.2 96.1 1524.5 99.9 3946.9 138.6
2001 2747.2 115.6 1893.2 91.5 4640.4 147.4
a No comparable survey data available for the northcentral U.S. during 1961-73.
42
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates (in thousands) for total ducks a and mallards or states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys.
British Columbia b California Colorado Michigan Minnesota Nebraska
Year
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
1955 c 101.5 32.0
1956 94.9 25.8
1957 154.8 26.8
1958 176.4 28.1
1959 99.7 12.1
1960 51.1 32.4 143.6 21.6
1961 58.7 32.4 141.8 43.3
1962 72.7 59.4 68.9 35.8
1963 78.0 62.1 114.9 37.4
1964 110.8 64.0 124.8 66.8
1965 111.9 60.2 52.9 20.8
1966 100.8 57.8 118.8 36.0
1967 122.2 69.7 96.2 27.6
1968 145.4 73.3 368.5 83.7 96.5 24.1
1969 138.1 57.5 345.3 88.8 100.6 26.7
1970 114.8 46.5 343.8 113.9 112.4 24.5
1971 121.4 48.3 286.9 78.5 96.0 22.3
1972 94.6 45.0 237.6 62.2 91.7 15.2
1973 112.3 45.2 415.6 99.8 85.5 19.0
1974 129.0 56.9 332.8 72.8 67.4 19.5
1975 156.7 38.2 503.3 175.8 62.6 14.8
1976 142.0 34.6 759.4 117.8 87.2 20.1
1977 536.6 134.2 152.4 24.1
1978 145.1 42.6 511.3 146.8 126.0 29.0
1979 103.2 30.9 901.4 158.7 143.8 33.6
1980 110.7 32.0 740.7 172.0 133.4 37.3
1981 188.4 36.4 515.2 154.8 66.2 19.4
1982 70.2 30.1 558.4 120.5 73.2 22.3
1983 130.6 44.2 394.2 155.8 141.6 32.2
1984 109.9 39.3 563.8 188.1 154.1 36.1
1985 580.3 216.9 75.4 28.4
1986 105.0 42.0 537.5 233.6 69.5 15.1
1987 125.4 62.0 614.9 192.3 120.5 41.7
1988 6.0 0.6 123.1 63.4 752.8 271.7 126.5 27.8
1989 5.5 0.5 122.9 48.2 1021.6 273.0 136.7 18.7
1990 5.9 0.6 131.9 56.5 886.8 232.1 81.4 14.7
1991 7.4 0.7 124.1 49.8 868.2 225.0 126.3 26.0
1992 7.7 0.7 497.4 375.8 101.3 46.6 822.8 360.9 1127.3 360.9 63.4 24.4
1993 7.1 0.6 666.7 359.0 145.6 68.7 667.8 386.5 875.9 305.8 92.8 23.8
1994 7.8 0.6 483.2 311.7 141.3 68.9 698.0 399.9 1320.1 426.5 118.9 17.5
1995 8.7 0.9 589.7 368.5 123.5 54.5 718.7 515.3 912.2 319.4 142.9 42.0
1996 8.3 0.6 795.8 535.6 142.8 60.1 643.0 338.8 1062.4 314.8 132.3 38.9
1997 8.1 0.6 824.3 514.9 107.5 51.9 779.4 445.8 953.0 407.4 128.3 26.1
1998 9.2 1.1 686.3 360.5 89.1 44.8 945.5 445.3 739.6 368.5 155.7 43.4
1999 8.3 0.8 824.6 534.5 101.0 50.2 649.5 419.5 716.5 316.4 251.2d 81.1
2000 7.8 0.6 625.4 443.4 745.5 345.4 815.3 318.1 178.8 54.3
2001 7.4 0.6 477.7 365.4 26.5d 11.8 539.7 294.8 761.3 320.6 225.3 69.2
a Species composition for the total duck estimate varies by region.
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing areas of the province.
c Blanks denote that the survey was not conducted, results were not available, or survey methods changed.
d First year of survey after major changes in survey methodology. Hence, results from earlier years are not comprable.
43
Appendix E. Continued.
Nevada Northeastern USe Oregon Washington Wisconsin Wyoming
Year
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 14.2 2.1
1960 14.1 2.1
1961 13.5 2.0
1962 13.8 1.7
1963 23.8 2.2
1964 23.5 3.0
1965 29.3 3.5
1966 25.7 3.4
1967 11.4 1.5 246.0
1968 10.5 1.2 333.0
1969 18.2 1.4 265.0
1970 19.6 1.5 382.0 101.0
1971 18.3 1.1 365.0 107.0
1972 19.0 0.9 278.0 90.0
1973 20.7 0.7 326.5 94.9 293.0 115.0
1974 17.1 0.7 320.4 97.5 318.0 122.0
1975 14.5 0.6 414.2 110.7 283.0 65.0
1976 13.6 0.6 279.4 73.6 276.0 69.0
1977 16.5 1.0 231.8 59.4 305.0 71.0
1978 11.1 0.6 240.8 79.5 323.0 77.0
1979 12.8 0.6 98.6 32.1 322.6 95.2 310.0 72.0
1980 16.6 0.9 113.7 34.1 284.3 137.7 306.0 103.0
1981 26.9 1.6 148.3 41.8 464.4 116.0 307.0 79.0
1982 21.0 1.1 146.4 49.8 233.6 95.0 299.0 67.0
1983 24.3 1.5 149.5 47.6 235.0 111.8 306.0 103.0
1984 24.0 1.4 196.3 59.3 249.4 95.4 585.0 114.0
1985 24.9 1.5 216.2 63.1 262.9 95.1 288.0 64.0
1986 26.4 1.3 203.8 60.8 332.1 158.8 356.0 73.0
1987 33.4 1.5 183.6 58.3 369.7 137.9 340.0 80.0
1988 31.7 1.3 241.8 67.2 275.0 129.4 408.0 98.0
1989 18.8 1.3 1144.8 589.9 162.3 49.8 397.6 160.0 266.0 85.0
1990 22.2 1.3 1042.3 665.1 168.9 56.9 394.6 154.7 382.0 88.0
1991 14.6 1.4 1849.2 779.2 140.8 43.7 415.5 162.9 330.0 74.0
1992 12.4 0.9 1090.2 562.2 116.3 41.0 538.2 256.1 313.0 98.0
1993 14.1 1.2 1198.4 683.1 149.8 55.0 346.0 171.2 196.0 77.0
1994 19.2 1.4 1348.1 853.1 391.3 82.8 123.9 52.7 525.1 276.6 353.6 89.6
1995 17.9 1.0 1441.2 862.8 282.2 63.6 147.3 58.9 572.2 217.5 494.9 104.4
1996 26.4 1.7 1432.3 848.5 417.4 101.1 163.3 61.6 677.3 292.1 589.0 99.9
1997 25.3 2.5 1404.9 795.1 472.4 113.8 172.8 67.0 381.3 172.9 617.0 125.1
1998 27.9 2.1 1443.8 775.1 425.1 123.5 185.3 79.0 427.5 165.9 824.1 131.4
1999 29.9 2.3 1520.8 879.7 593.5 121.9 200.2 86.2 434.4 221.6 740.8 124.8
2000 26.1 2.1 1925.8 757.8 143.6 47.7 769.8 367.5 f
2001 22.2 2.0 164.8 62.6 542.8 164.3
e Includes all or portions of Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia.
f No longer conducting breeding waterfowl surveys.
44
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors (in thousands) for 10 species of ducks from
the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, 75-77).
Mallard Gadwall American wigeon Green-winged teal Blue-winged teal
Year Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
SˆE
1955 8777.3 457.1 651.5 149.5 3216.8 297.8 1807.2 291.5 5305.2 567.6
1956 10452.7 461.8 772.6 142.4 3145.0 227.8 1525.3 236.2 4997.6 527.6
1957 9296.9 443.5 666.8 148.2 2919.8 291.5 1102.9 161.2 4299.5 467.3
1958 11234.2 555.6 502.0 89.6 2551.7 177.9 1347.4 212.2 5456.6 483.7
1959 9024.3 466.6 590.0 72.7 3787.7 339.2 2653.4 459.3 5099.3 332.7
1960 7371.7 354.1 784.1 68.4 2987.6 407.0 1426.9 311.0 4293.0 294.3
1961 7330.0 510.5 654.8 77.5 3048.3 319.9 1729.3 251.5 3655.3 298.7
1962 5535.9 426.9 905.1 87.0 1958.7 145.4 722.9 117.6 3011.1 209.8
1963 6748.8 326.8 1055.3 89.5 1830.8 169.9 1242.3 226.9 3723.6 323.0
1964 6063.9 385.3 873.4 73.7 2589.6 259.7 1561.3 244.7 4020.6 320.4
1965 5131.7 274.8 1260.3 114.8 2301.1 189.4 1282.0 151.0 3594.5 270.4
1966 6731.9 311.4 1680.4 132.4 2318.4 139.2 1617.3 173.6 3733.2 233.6
1967 7509.5 338.2 1384.6 97.8 2325.5 136.2 1593.7 165.7 4491.5 305.7
1968 7089.2 340.8 1949.0 213.9 2298.6 156.1 1430.9 146.6 3462.5 389.1
1969 7531.6 280.2 1573.4 100.2 2941.4 168.6 1491.0 103.5 4138.6 239.5
1970 9985.9 617.2 1608.1 123.5 3469.9 318.5 2182.5 137.7 4861.8 372.3
1971 9416.4 459.5 1605.6 123.0 3272.9 186.2 1889.3 132.9 4610.2 322.8
1972 9265.5 363.9 1622.9 120.1 3200.1 194.1 1948.2 185.8 4278.5 230.5
1973 8079.2 377.5 1245.6 90.3 2877.9 197.4 1949.2 131.9 3332.5 220.3
1974 6880.2 351.8 1592.4 128.2 2672.0 159.3 1864.5 131.2 4976.2 394.6
1975 7726.9 344.1 1643.9 109.0 2778.3 192.0 1664.8 148.1 5885.4 337.4
1976 7933.6 337.4 1244.8 85.7 2505.2 152.7 1547.5 134.0 4744.7 294.5
1977 7397.1 381.8 1299.0 126.4 2575.1 185.9 1285.8 87.9 4462.8 328.4
1978 7425.0 307.0 1558.0 92.2 3282.4 208.0 2174.2 219.1 4498.6 293.3
1979 7883.4 327.0 1757.9 121.0 3106.5 198.2 2071.7 198.5 4875.9 297.6
1980 7706.5 307.2 1392.9 98.8 3595.5 213.2 2049.9 140.7 4895.1 295.6
1981 6409.7 308.4 1395.4 120.0 2946.0 173.0 1910.5 141.7 3720.6 242.1
1982 6408.5 302.2 1633.8 126.2 2458.7 167.3 1535.7 140.2 3657.6 203.7
1983 6456.0 286.9 1519.2 144.3 2636.2 181.4 1875.0 148.0 3366.5 197.2
1984 5415.3 258.4 1515.0 125.0 3002.2 174.2 1408.2 91.5 3979.3 267.6
1985 4960.9 234.7 1303.0 98.2 2050.7 143.7 1475.4 100.3 3502.4 246.3
1986 6124.2 241.6 1547.1 107.5 1736.5 109.9 1674.9 136.1 4478.8 237.1
1987 5789.8 217.9 1305.6 97.1 2012.5 134.3 2006.2 180.4 3528.7 220.2
1988 6369.3 310.3 1349.9 121.1 2211.1 139.1 2060.8 188.3 4011.1 290.4
1989 5645.4 244.1 1414.6 106.6 1972.9 106.0 1841.7 166.4 3125.3 229.8
1990 5452.4 238.6 1672.1 135.8 1860.1 108.3 1789.5 172.7 2776.4 178.7
1991 5444.6 205.6 1583.7 111.8 2254.0 139.5 1557.8 111.3 3763.7 270.8
1992 5976.1 241.0 2032.8 143.4 2208.4 131.9 1773.1 123.7 4333.1 263.2
1993 5708.3 208.9 1755.2 107.9 2053.0 109.3 1694.5 112.7 3192.9 205.6
1994 6980.1 282.8 2318.3 145.2 2382.2 130.3 2108.4 152.2 4616.2 259.2
1995 8269.4 287.5 2835.7 187.5 2614.5 136.3 2300.6 140.3 5140.0 253.3
1996 7941.3 262.9 2984.0 152.5 2271.7 125.4 2499.5 153.4 6407.4 353.9
1997 9939.7 308.5 3897.2 264.9 3117.6 161.6 2506.6 142.5 6124.3 330.7
1998 9640.4 301.6 3742.2 205.6 2857.7 145.3 2087.3 138.9 6398.8 332.3
1999 10805.7 344.5 3235.5 163.8 2920.1 185.5 2631.0 174.6 7149.5 364.5
2000 9470.2 290.2 3158.4 200.7 2733.1 138.8 3193.5 200.1 7431.4 425.0
2001 7904.0 226.9 2679.2 136.1 2493.5 149.6 2508.7 156.4 5757.0 288.8
45
Appendix F. Continued.
Northern shoveler North

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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Waterfowl
Population Status, 2001
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2001
July 20, 2001
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition,
public hearings are held and the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public
comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for
waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the
Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various State and Provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation
organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the U.S. for the
2001-2002 hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Pintail, by Robert Hautman, winner of the 2000-2001 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information contained in this report is the result of the efforts
of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, 49 state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from
Canada, and Direccion General de Conservacion Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition,
several conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals
provided information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from
the NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the
collection and compilation of data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of individuals
who were primary contacts for information included in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any
omission of individuals from these lists, and thank all participants for their contributions. Without this combined
effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Tim
Moser, and Khristi Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Graphic support was provided by Paul D. Keywood and D. Alan Davenport. Support for the processing of data
and publication was provided by Mark C. Otto, James A. Dubovsky, and Judith P. Bladen. James A. Dubovsky
and Judith A. Bladen reviewed drafts of this report and provided helpful comments. John Bidwell, Elizabeth
Buelna, Carl Ferguson, Rod King, Mark Koneff, Fred Roetker, John Solberg, Phil Thorpe, James Voelzer, and
James Wortham provided habitat narratives, reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding
areas, and provided helpful comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Waterfowl population status, 2001. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. 50 pp.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov).
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................. 3
Status of ducks
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 6
References........................................................................................................................................ 20
Status of geese and swans
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 21
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 21
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks ....................................... 37
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans .................... 39
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the breeding waterfowl and habitat survey ............. 41
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 42
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ................................................................................. 43
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area ............................................................................................ 45
Appendix G. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1999-2001 ..................................................... 47
Appendix H. Estimated number of July ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 48
Appendix I. Canada goose population indices during 1969-2001 .................................................... 49
Appendix J. Population indices for snow geese, greater white-fronted geese, brant, emperor
geese, and tundra swans during 1969-2000 ........................................................................ 50
3
List of duck tables
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and
the northcentral U.S. ............................................................................................................ 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates .......................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates …………………………………………………………11
Table 4. Estimated number of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral
U.S....................................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the traditional survey area................................... 16
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern
survey area ........................................................................................................................... 16
List of duck figures
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American
Waterfowl Management Plan population goal for selected species for the traditional
survey area .......................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size of the mallard population in the
fall......................................................................................................................................... 20
List of goose and swan figures
Figure 1. Important Arctic and subarctic nesting areas of North America ....................................... 22
Figure 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North American for 3-5 June 2000 and 3 June
2001..................................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America .............................. 24
Figures 4-16, 18. Estimated numbers of Canada goose populations…………………………….. 25-31
Figure 17. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America ........................... 30
Figures 19-23, 25. Estimated numbers of light goose populations………………………………...32-34
Figure 24. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific populations of brant during winter ................. 34
Figure 26. Approximate range of Emperor goose, and eastern and western swan populations in
North America ....................................................................................................................... 35
Figure 27. Estimated numbers of the Eastern and Western Populations of tundra swans during
winter.................................................................................................................................... 36
4
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77), total duck abundance was 36.1 ± 0.6
[SE] million birds. This was 14% below (P< 0.001) last year’s estimate of 41.8 ± 0.7 million birds, but still 9%
above the long-term (1955-2000) average (P < 0.001). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.9 ± 0.2
million, which is 17% below (P<0.001) the 2000 estimate of 9.5 ± 0.3 million and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.08). Blue-winged teal (Anas discors) abundance was 5.8 ± 0.3 million, which was 23% below last
year’s estimate of 7.4 ± 0.4 million (P=0.001), but 29% above the long-term average (P = 0.001). Green-winged
teal (Anas crecca) abundance was 2.5 ± 0.2 million, 39% above the long-term average (P<0.001) but 21%
lower than last year (P=0.007). Gadwall (Anas strepera; 2.7 ± 0.1 million, +66%) and northern shovelers (Anas
clypeata; 3.3 ± 0.2 million, +60%), were above their long-term averages (P < 0.04), while northern pintails (Anas
acuta; 3.3 ± 0.3 million, -23%) and scaup (Aythya marila and A. affinis combined; 3.7 ± 0.2 million, -31%)
remained below their long-term averages (P<0.01). Redheads (Aythya americana; 0.7 + 0.07 million) were
23% below 2000 numbers (P=0.04), and similar to their long-term average (P=0.22). American wigeon (Anas
Americana; 2.5 + 0.1 million) and canvasback (Aythya valisineria; 0.6 + 0.05 million) estimates were similar to
those of last year (P≥0.19) and to long-term averages (P>0.22). Habitat conditions in May in the traditional
survey area were generally wetter than last year, but varied considerably among areas. The estimate of May
ponds in Prairie Canada and the U.S. combined was 4.6 ± 0.1 million, up 18% from 2000, but not statistically
different from the long-term average (P=0.07). The eastern survey area comprises strata 51-56 and 62-69.
The 2001 total duck population estimate for the eastern survey area was 3.3 ± 0.3 million birds, similar to last
year’s total duck estimate of 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds. Abundances of individual species were similar to last year,
with the exception of ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris; 0.35 + 0.04 million, -43%, P=0.001) and buffleheads
(Bucephala albeola; 0.10 ± 0.02 million, +93%, P = 0.05). The mid-continent mallard fall flight is predicted to be
10.5 million mallards, 6% lower than that of last year (P=0.02).
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
The data and analyses were the most current
available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and encompass principal breeding areas
of North America, and cover over 2.0 million square
miles. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50,
and 75-77) is comprised of parts of Alaska, Canada,
and the northcentral U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates of ducks and ponds seen from the air are
corrected annually for visibility bias by conducting
ground counts. In the northern portions of the
traditional survey area and the eastern survey area,
duck estimates are corrected using visibility rates
derived from a comparison of airplane and helicopter
counts. Annual estimates of duck abundance are
available since 1955 for the traditional survey area
and for all strata in the eastern survey area since
1996, although portions of the eastern survey area
have been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in Prairie
Canada are available since 1961, whereas estimates
for the north-central U.S. are available only since
1974. Several provinces and states also conduct
breeding waterfowl surveys using various methods;
some have survey designs that allow calculation of
measures of precision for estimates of duck
abundance. Information about habitat conditions was
supplied primarily by biologists in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
obtained from one serial publication and two Internet
sites, referenced at the end of this document.
5
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers assess summer habitat
conditions and duck production in a portion of the
traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77). This
survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis) mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, in
2000, we redefined the total duck species
composition in this region to include these species,
and recalculated historical estimates to reflect this
change. Canvasbacks, redheads, and ruddy ducks
(Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the eastern
total-duck estimate because these species rarely
breed there. Due to the added survey areas and
change in total duck composition, estimates for the
eastern survey area published in this document are
not comparable to those published in status reports
prior to 2000. Wood ducks are also not included in
the total duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
Mallard fall-flight indices predict the size of the fall
population originating from the mid-continent region
of North America. For management purposes, the
mid-continent population is comprised of mallards
originating from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Indices are
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and consider breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a model
that depicts how the age ratio varies with changes in
spring population size and pond abundance. The
fall-flight index represents a weighted average of the
fall flights predicted by the four alternative models of
mallard population dynamics used in adaptive
harvest management (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
2001), using current model probabilities as weights.
Fall flight indices provided in this report may differ
from those published previously because model
weights change each year based on a comparison of
model predictions and observed population size.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2000 in Review
Most of Canada and the U.S. experienced warm
temperatures in March, and spring phenology was
early. The January-May period of 2000 was the
warmest on record for the U.S. as a whole. These
seasonally high temperatures contributed to
worsening drought conditions in parts of the
Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. The
northeastern U.S., however, received above-average
precipitation, helping to alleviate the moisture deficit
from the previous summer’s drought. In the spring of
2000 in the traditional survey area, conditions were
much drier than during the previous 6 years. These
dry conditions were reflected in the estimates of May
ponds (Prairie Canada and U.S. combined). The
estimate was 3.9 ± 0.1 [SE] million ponds, down 41%
from 1999 (P<0.01) and 20% below the 1974-99
average (P<0.01, Appendix D). Ponds in Prairie
Canada numbered 2.4 ± 0.1 million, 37% below 1999
and 30% below the 1955-99 average (P < 0.01). The
pond estimate for the north-central U.S. was 1.5 ± 0.1
million, 46% below that of 1999 (P < 0.01) and similar
(P=0.95) to the long-term average. Habitat
conditions ranged from poor in much of Alberta, parts
of Montana, and western Saskatchewan to fair-to-good
in most other areas. Only portions of northern
Manitoba and the Dakotas had excellent habitat
conditions. In Alaska, a significant cooling trend
resulted in ice breakup 2-3 weeks later than normal.
Winter and spring also were warm and dry in the
eastern survey area. A seemingly early spring
cooled down markedly, especially in Labrador,
Newfoundland, and eastern Quebec. In these
easternmost regions, spring-like conditions arrived 2-
3 weeks behind normal. Water levels in lakes and
ponds in southwestern Ontario, Maine, Nova Scotia,
and New Brunswick were higher than in 1999, when
the East suffered a drought. Drier-than-normal
conditions persisted in southern Ontario and
southern Quebec, while southwest Ontario, Maine,
and the Atlantic Provinces experienced heavy
thunderstorms and severe flooding during May.
Overall, habitat conditions in the east were generally
good, with the exception of some areas of southern
Ontario and south-central Quebec.
In 2000, the estimated breeding population of all
ducks (excluding scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks,
mergansers, and wood ducks) in the traditional
survey area was 41.8 ± 0.7 million birds (Table 2).
6
This was similar (P=0.12) to the 1999 record estimate
of 43.4 ± 0.7 million birds, was 27% above the long-term
(1955-99) average (P<0.01), and was the fourth
highest total-duck estimate since 1955.
Approximately 59% of the ducks were found in the
prairie-pothole region (strata 26-49), a percentage
similar to that of the 1970s (60%) when wetland and
upland conditions in this region were considered
good. The 2000 total-duck population estimate for
the eastern survey area (excluding canvasbacks,
redheads, ruddy ducks, eiders, long-tailed ducks and
wood ducks) was 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds (Table 2).
This was similar to the 1999 estimate of 3.2 ± 0.2
million birds.
Throughout much of June 2000, much of the
prairies received heavy rains. Areas receiving
abundant precipitation included parts of
Saskatchewan (except for the very dry west-central
part of the province), Manitoba, northern and central
Alberta, southeastern Montana, and North Dakota.
In many areas, this precipitation increased breeding
habitat quantity and quality relative to May conditions,
especially for late nesting species, and enhanced
brood-rearing habitats. However, in other areas,
production was likely reduced due to flooding and
subsequent nest loss. In southern Saskatchewan
and Montana, improved habitat conditions did not
help production, because either the birds had already
left the area before the onset of abundant rainfall
(Saskatchewan) or most of the rain soaked into the
ground (Montana). In general, July habitat conditions
were much improved over May conditions in most of
the prairies, with the exceptions of South Dakota and
southern Alberta.
Results of the July Production Survey indicated
that the index of July ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 3.9 ± 0.1 million
ponds. Although this was the fourth highest recorded
estimate for the region, it was 26% below the 1999
record-high estimate of 5.2 ± 0.3 million ponds, but
39% above the long-term average. The number of
July ponds in Prairie Canada was 2.5 ± 0.1 million.
This was unchanged from the 1999 index of 2.8 ± 0.1
million, but 41% above the long-term average. The
number of July ponds in the north-central U.S. was
1.4 ± 0.1 million, the third highest index for the region.
This was 42% below the 1999 record high estimate
of 2.4 ± 0.2 million, and 48% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in the north-central
U.S. and Prairie Canada combined was 12% below
the 1999 index, but 25% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in Prairie Canada
and the north-central U.S. were 10% and 5% below
1999 estimates, respectively. Brood estimates in
Prairie Canada were 37% below the long-term
average, while counts were 134% above the long-term
average in the north-central U.S.
2001 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Populations,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Spring weather was generally warmer than
normal across Canada, and temperatures were at
or slightly below normal in most of the northern
U.S. However, precipitation and habitat
conditions in the traditional survey area were
variable. The estimate of May ponds (north-central
U. S. and Prairie Canada combined)
increased 18% (4.6 ± 0.1 million, P=0.001)
compared to 2000, but not statistically different
from the long-term average (-6 %, P=0.07). The
May pond estimate for prairie Canada was 2.7 +
0.1 million, 13% higher than the 2000 estimate,
but 20% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
For the north-central U. S. the estimate was 1.9 +
0.09 million ponds, 24% greater than last year,
and 25% above the long-term average.
Continued drought produced fair-to-poor
conditions in most of Alberta, central and southern
Saskatchewan, and eastern Montana. By
contrast, North and South Dakota generally had
good-to-excellent water conditions, with the best
conditions in the eastern portions of these states,
and drier conditions to the west. Southern
Manitoba and extreme southeastern
Saskatchewan have had higher-than-normal water
conditions for the past two years, and this residual
water, together with above-normal precipitation
due to an early, snowy winter, produced excellent
habitat for breeding ducks. Average to above-average
precipitation also made for excellent
wetland conditions across most of northern
Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Record drought
and poor wetland conditions were the rule in
Alberta, with the exception of the northernmost
areas, which had above-average winter and
spring precipitation. Good conditions for breeding
ducks prevailed in the Northwest Territories,
except for a small northern area that was rated
only fair due to late breakup of ice on wetlands
that reduced available breeding habitat for early-nesting
species. In Alaska, breeding conditions
depend largely on the timing of spring, as wetland
conditions are less variable than on the prairies.
Although winter temperatures were mild, spring
was late, and waterfowl production will likely be
below average to the north and west, and average
to the south and east. Overall, conditions were
good in the traditional survey area, and average to
above-average waterfowl production is expected.
7
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 553 426 -23 0.032 736 -42 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1404 1536 +9 0.277 2004 -23 <0.001
S. Manitoba 466 786 +69 <0.001 685 +15 0.089
Subtotal 2422 2747 +13 0.031 3425 -20 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 429 346 -19 0.040 536 -35 <0.001
Eastern Dakotas 1095 1548 +41 <0.001 982 +58 <0.001
Subtotal 1524 1893 +24 0.006 1518 +25 <0.001
Grand Total 3947 4640 +18 0.001 4916 -6 0.071
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2000; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2000.
Millions
Prairie Canada
Northcentral U.S.
Total
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
8
In the eastern survey area, conditions for
breeding ducks were variable but generally good.
Southern Ontario and northern New York enjoyed
an early spring and normal precipitation. With
wetland basins nearly full, the outlook for breeding
ducks was good. Spring-like weather also came
early in Quebec, with good-to-excellent habitat in
the central and northern portions. However,
southern Quebec was drier, and conditions there
ranged from fair to poor. In Maine and the
Maritime provinces spring-like weather was late,
with lower-than- normal temperatures, but above-average
precipitation, and habitat conditions were
rated good throughout the region. Overall,
eastern habitats were in good condition, with
average to above-average waterfowl production
expected.
In 2001, the estimated breeding population of all
ducks (excluding scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks,
mergansers, and wood ducks) in the traditional
survey area was 36.1 ± 0.6 million birds (Table 2),
14% below (P = 0.001) last year’s estimate of 41.8 ±
0.7 million birds, but 9% above the long-term (1955-
2000) average (P<0.001). Approximately 60% of
these ducks were found in the prairie-pothole region
(strata 26-49), the same percentage recorded during
the 1970s, which is the historical benchmark for good
wetland conditions in this region. Total duck
numbers increased compared to the 2000 estimate
(P=0.02) and was above the long-term average in
Southern Manitoba (P= 0.007). Estimates decreased
compared to last year and were below long-term
averages in central and northern Alberta-northeastern
British Columbia-Northwest Territories,
northern Saskatchewan-northern Manitoba-western
Ontario, southern Saskatchewan and southern
Alberta, (P<0.05). The 2001 total-duck population
estimate for the eastern survey area (excluding
canvasbacks, redheads, ruddy ducks, eiders, long-tailed
ducks and wood ducks) was 3.3 ± 0.2 million
birds (Table 2). This was similar to last year’s total
duck estimate of 3.2 ± 0.3 million birds. In some
other areas where surveys are conducted, measures
of precision for estimates are provided (northeastern
U.S., Wisconsin, Michigan, California, Washington,
and British Columbia). Total duck abundances were
similar to last year’s estimates in the northeastern
U. S., California, British Columbia and Michigan
(P>0.08). Total ducks in California and Michigan
were more than 25% below their long-term averages
(P<0.01; Table 2, Appendix E). Of the states without
measures of precision for total-duck numbers,
Minnesota’s estimate decreased compared to last
year’s estimate, while Nebraska’s increased
(Appendix E). In Nevada, total ducks decreased over
2000 levels, and in Washington, total duck numbers
increased.
Trends in abundances and annual breeding
population estimates for 10 principal duck species
from the traditional survey area are provided in
Figure 2, Table 5, and Appendix F. The dashed lines
in the species graphs in Figure 2 represent the
population goal of the North American Waterfowl
Management Plan for the traditional survey area.
Mallard abundance was 7.9 ± 0.3 million, which is
17% below last year’s estimate of 9.5 ± 0.3 million
(P<0.01) estimate and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.08) (Table 3). Mallard numbers were
significantly below 2000 levels in three regions of the
traditional survey area - central and northern Alberta-northeastern
British Columbia, northern
Saskatchewan –northern Manitoba-western Ontario,
southern Saskatchewan, and Montana-western
Dakotas (P≤0.05), and were below long-term
averages (P<0.01) in northern Saskatchewan –
northern Manitoba-western Ontario, southern
Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. However,
mallards were well above long-term averages in
Alaska-Yukon Territory-Old Crow Flats, and the
eastern Dakotas (P < 0.001). In other areas where
surveys are conducted and measures of precision for
estimates are provided (the same states as for total
ducks, as well as Minnesota), mallard abundances
were similar to those of 2000 (P ≥ 0.46), with the
exception of Wisconsin, where mallard abundance
decreased by 55% from 2000 levels (P<0.01; Table
3, Appendix E). State-specific mallard populations
did not differ from long-term averages, except in
Michigan (-27%, P=0.01, Table 3, Appendix E). In
Nebraska and Washington, where measures of
precision are unavailable, mallard abundance
increased compared to that of last year, while
mallards in Nevada decreased (Appendix E).
Blue-winged teal abundance was 5.8 ± 0.3 million,
23% below last year’s estimate of 7.4 ± 0.4 million
(P=0.001), but still 29% above the long-term average
(P<0.001). Green-winged teal abundance was 3.2 ±
0.2 million, 39% above the long-term average
(P<0.001), but 21% lower than last year (P=0.007).
Gadwall (2.7 ± 0.1 million, +66%) and northern
shovelers (3.3 ± 0.2 million, +60%) were above their
long-term averages (P<0.01), while northern pintails
(3.3 ± 0.3 million, -23%) and scaup (3.7 ± 0.2 million,
-31%) remained below their long-term averages
(P<0.001). American wigeon and canvasback
estimates were similar to those of last year (P≥ 0.19)
and to long-term averages (P > 0.31).
Annual breeding population estimates for 10
principal species in the eastern survey area are
provided in Table 6 and Appendix G. Abundances
9
Table 2. Total duck breedinga population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Region 2000 2001 % P LTA 2000 2001
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats
6727 6427 -4 0.449 3335 +93 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories
6900 5489 -20 <0.001 7297 -25 <0.001
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
3468 2656 -23 0.014 3552 -25 <0.001
S. Alberta 3485 2521 -28 <0.001 4460 -43 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 7665 6442 -16 0.001 7429 -13 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1486 1793 +21 0.016 1543 +16 0.007
Montana and Western Dakotas 1726 1588 -8 0.271 1625 -2 0.692
Eastern Dakotas 10382 9261 -11 0.049 3983 +133 <0.001
Total 41838 36177 -14 <0.001 33224 +9 <0.001
Eastern Survey Area 3204 3337 +4 0.757 3075 +9 0.351
Other Regions
British Columbia c 8 7 -5 0.847 8 -2 0.917
California 625 478 -23 0.078 666 -28 0.001
Michigan 746 540 -28 0.151 741 -27 0.014
Northeastern U.S. d 1926 1393 -28 0.349 1403 -1 0.913
Wisconsin 770 543 -29 <0.010 542 0.14).
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by mid-winter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Mid-winter counts suggested that black duck
abundance in both flyways combined was similar to
2000 counts. Over both flyways, 270,000 black
ducks were estimated from mid-winter inventories.
This is 4% higher than the 2000 index (260,000), and
9% less than the 1991-2000 mean (287,000). In the
Atlantic Flyway, the mid-winter index was similar to
last year’s, up slightly from 223,000 in 2000 to
229,700, similar to the 1991-2000 mean (223,900).
In the Mississippi Flyway, the mid-winter estimate
increased 26% from 37,000 in 2000 to 46,400, which
is still 27% below the most recent 10-year mean
(63,200). In the eastern survey area, the 2000
estimate for breeding black ducks (422,000) was
similar to the 2000 estimate (397,000) and the 1996-
2000 average (485,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored
by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS),
a series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered at low
abundances along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term index of regional
populations of the species. Trends suggest that
numbers of wood ducks increased 3-6% per year
over the long-term (1966-2000) and short-term
(1980-2000). Specifically, in the Atlantic Flyway, the
BBS indicates a 5.5% annual increase in wood ducks
over the long-term and a 4.9% annual increase over
the short-term (P<0.001). In the Mississippi Flyway,
the BBS indicates a 4.2% annual increase over the
long-term and a 3.3% annual increase over the short-term
(P<0.05; J. Sauer, U. S. Geological Survey/
Biological Resources Division, unpubl. data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl production.
Good wetland conditions increase renesting and
brood survival. Throughout June, much of the
prairies received abundant precipitation, including
Saskatchewan (except for the very dry west-central
part of the province), Manitoba, southeastern
Montana, and North and South Dakota. In many
areas, precipitation and moderate temperatures
increased or maintained breeding habitat quantity
and quality relative to May conditions, especially for
late nesting species, and enhanced brood-rearing
habitats. In Montana, improved habitat conditions did
not help production, because rains came too late for
nesting ducks. In general, July habitat conditions
were similar to May conditions in much of the
prairies, with the exceptions of southern Alberta and
northeastern Montana, where continued drought
made conditions worse. However, excellent habitat
in the northern prairie provinces likely will not lead to
high production there, as low breeding-pair counts in
these regions suggest there were few birds there to
take advantage of these good nesting conditions.
Results of the July Production Survey indicate
that the number of ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 2.9 ± 0.09
million ponds (Fig. 3, Table 4). This was 26%
below last year’s estimate of 3.9 ± 0.1 million
ponds (P<0.001), and similar to the long-term
average (P=0.74). The number of July ponds in
Prairie Canada was 1.8 + 0.07 million. This was
25% below last year’s estimate of 2.5 ± 0.1 million
(P<0.001) but similar to the long-term average
(P=0.47). The number of July ponds in the north-central
U.S. was 1.0 ± 0.06 million. This was 26%
below last year’s estimate of 1.4 ± 0.08 million,
and similar to the long-term average (P=0.48).
The number of broods in the north-central U.S.
and Prairie Canada combined was 11% lower
than last year’s estimate, but 15% above the long-term
average. The number of broods in Prairie
Canada and the North-central U.S. were 9% above
and 19% below last year’s estimates, respectively.
Brood indices in Prairie Canada were 33% below the
long-term average, while brood counts were 81%
above the long-term average in the north-central U.S.
The brood index in the Canadian boreal forest was
10% lower than last year’s, and 31% below the long-term
average.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions in
the eastern regions, as well as more detailed
information on regions in the traditional survey area,
are available in Waterfowl Population Surveys
reports, located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page at
http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html.
Some of the habitat information that follows was
taken from these reports.
14
Table 4. Estimated number (in thousands) of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 409 311 -24 0.022 477 -35 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1438 941 -35 <0.001 959 -2 0.841
S. Manitoba 604 587 -3 0.762 324 +81 <0.001
Subtotal 2451 1838 -25 <0.001 1760 +4 0.470
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 484 226 -53 <0.001 403 -44 <0.001
Eastern Dakotas 917 805 -12 0.217 562 +43 0.007
Subtotal 1402 1032 -26 <0.001 965 +7 0.478
Grand Total 3852 2870 -26 <0.001 2819 +2 0.740
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2000; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2000.
Millions
Prairie Canada
Northcentral U.S.
Total
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the traditional survey area.
Change from 2000 Change from LTA
Region 2000 2001 % P LTAa % P
Mallard 9470 7904 -17 <0.001 7494 +5 0.078
Gadwall 3158 2679 -15 0.048 1610 +66 <0.001
American wigeon 2733 2494 -9 0.240 2649 -6 0.307
Green-winged teal 3194 2509 -21 0.007 1806 +39 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 7431 5757 -23 0.001 4465 +29 <0.001
Northern shoveler 3521 3314 -6 0.423 2073 +60 <0.001
Northern pintail 2908 3296 +13 0.220 4289 -23 <0.001
Redhead 926 712 -23 0.041 624 +14 0.218
Canvasback 707 580 -18 0.189 563 +3 0.756
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 4026 3694 -8 0.264 5353 -31 <0.001
Totalb 41838 36177 -14 <0.001 33224 +9 <0.001
a Long-term average (1955-2000).
b Includes black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneneye, bufflehead, and ruddy duck. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed duck, merganser, and wood duck.
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimatesa (in thousands, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern
survey area.
Change from 2000 Change from LTAb
Region 2000 2001 % P LTA % P
Mergansers 400 429 +7 0.729 496 -14 0.435
Mallard 212 286 +35 0.153 306 -7 0.661
American Black Duck 397 422 +6 0.730 485 -13 0.271
American Wigeon 42 77 +86 0.192 61 +28 0.442
Green-winged teal 202 220 +9 0.671 314 -30 0.032
Lesser Scaup 116 204 +75 0.371 41 +392 0.080
Ring-necked duck 619 353 -43 0.001 533 -34 0.002
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 947 1032 +9 0.820 643 +61 0.075
Bufflehead 49 95 +93 0.054 47 +100 0.029
Scoters 182 179 -2 0.963 100 +78 0.137
Total 3204 3337 +4 0.757 3075 +9 0.351
a Includes gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, and scaup. Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback, and ruddy duck.
bLong-term average from 1996.
16
Southern Alberta: The fall, winter, and spring,
southern Alberta (strata 26-29) received below-normal
precipitation in most areas. Environment
Canada reported average-to-slightly above-average
temperatures for the November 2000 to
April 2001 period. In May, temperatures were
near normal and precipitation was generally below
average throughout most of the region. Areas
near the Milk River along the Montana border
were in poor condition. Most of the prairie
portions of the southern part of the province were
in fair to poor condition. The Aspen Parklands of
east-central were generally in fair condition, while
the area in a 20 mile radius around Edmonton and
Red Deer was in good condition. May ponds were
42% below the long-term average (P<0.001), and
23% below last year (P<0.001) when conditions also
were fairly dry. Low numbers of wetlands again
resulted in ducks crowding on remaining wetlands.
Total-duck abundance in southern Alberta was below
the long-term average (-43%, P<0.001) and below
2000 levels (-28%, P<0.001). Mallards (-35%),
northern pintails (-92%), gadwall (-17%), American
wigeon (-41%), blue-winged teal (-42%), redheads
(-55%), and canvasbacks (-52%) were below their
long-term averages (P<0.05). June precipitation in
southern Alberta was below normal, and condition of
most habitats remained fair-to-poor as of July. July
pond counts were 24% below the 2000 estimate, and
35% below the long-term mean. The July brood
index was similar to 2000 mean, and 56% below the
long-term mean.
Southern Saskatchewan: Another below-average
year for precipitation has resulted in poor-to-fair
upland and wetland habitat conditions across
most of the Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-
35) survey area. The majority of the survey area
received below-average precipitation during the
late summer and fall of 2000. However, the north-central
and northeast areas received well-below
average precipitation and whereas central
portions of the region received well-above-average
precipitation. Winter precipitation ranged
from average in the southeast, below average in
the central and northeast parts of the survey area,
and far below average in the west. Conditions did
not improve in April and May, and the ephemeral,
temporary, and seasonal wetlands that are
normally abundant during the spring survey were
notably absent. Normal temperatures
predominated across Southern Saskatchewan
from late summer through October 2000.
November and December were characterized by
below-average temperatures, and late winter and
spring were characterized by average to above-average
temperatures. The total duck population
estimate for southern Saskatchewan decreased
16% from the 2000 estimate, and was 13% below
the long-term mean. Some dabbling duck species
also decreased. The 2001 mallard population
estimate decreased 27% from the 2000 estimate
and dropped below the long-term mean for the
first time since 1994 (P<0.001). The northern
pintail estimate remained 47% below the long-term
mean (P<0.001), while the American wigeon
estimate was the lowest since 1990 and 61%
below the long-term mean (P<0.001). Although
the diving duck population estimate was down
15% compared to the 2000 estimate, individual
species estimates were not different from long-term
averages. As of July, habitat conditions in
southern Saskatchewan had not improved.
Generally, only artificial, permanent and large semi-permanent
wetlands remained available for brood-rearing.
Many dry basins in croplands have been
cultivated, as much of the province experienced
record to near-record drought. The July pond count
was 35% lower than the 2000 index and similar to the
long-term average. The July brood index was similar
to that of 2000, but 22% below the long-term average
for this region.
Southern Manitoba: Wetland conditions in Southern
Manitoba (stratum 25, strata 36-40) were generally
very good. Water levels and residual nesting cover
were excellent in west-central and southwestern
Manitoba, as high water levels in 2000 prevented
tillage close to wetlands. On many semi-permanent
wetlands, increases in emergent vegetation due to 3
years of high water provided good nesting habitat for
diving ducks. Total-duck estimates were 21% higher
than in 2000, and 16% above the long-term average
(P<0.01). Mallard, gadwall, blue-winged teal,
northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback
and redhead abundances did not differ from 2000
levels (P>0.1). Gadwall (+75%) and shoveler
numbers (+95%) were well above their long-term
averages, while American wigeon (-73%), northern
pintail (-63%), green-winged teal (-41%) and scaup (-
49%) were below their long-term averages (P<0.01).
However, northern pintail numbers increased by
117% (P=0.01) over the 2000 estimate. Intermittent
rainfall during June resulted in generally excellent
brood-rearing wetland conditions as of July. July
pond counts were at the third highest level recorded
for this region. The July pond count for this region
was similar to last year’s, and 81% above the long-term
average. The July brood index was 44% higher
than last year’s and similar to the long-term average.
17
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44),
conditions were generally drier than in 2000.
Continued drought in Montana resulted in poor
wetland conditions. In the western Dakotas, water
levels were better, and conditions were fair to good.
Grassland cover on lands enrolled in the
Conservation Reserve Program was plentiful, though
spring grass growth was slightly later than normal.
May ponds were down 19% from 2000 levels
(P=0.04) and 35% below the long-term average
(P<0.01). The number of total ducks was not
different from the 2000 estimate (P=0.27) or the long-term
average (P=0.69). Mallards decreased by 26%
(P=0.04) since 2000, but did not differ from the long-term
average. Gadwall (+113%) were above their
long-term average, and blue-winged teal (-40%) and
northern pintail abundances (-43%) were below long-term
averages (P<0.001). All other species were
similar to 2000 estimates and their long-term
averages (P>0.10). Rainfall in June and July
improved water conditions in the western Dakotas
but helped little in Montana. In most of Montana the
rain arrived too late to aid production, which will be
minimal. Despite the rain, Montana remains very dry,
particularly north of the Missouri River. Minimal late
nesting was reported throughout the survey area, but
brood-rearing conditions were good in much of the
western Dakotas, where fair to good production is
expected. The number of ponds in July was 53%
below last year’s estimate, and 44% below the long-term
average. The July brood index was 25% below
last year’s, and slightly below (-7%) the long-term
average.
Eastern Dakotas: In the eastern Dakotas (strata 45-
49), early fall was warm and dry, especially in
northwestern North Dakota, and the southern two-thirds
of South Dakota. Late-fall rains improved
wetland conditions across the region. Winter
precipitation was above normal in South Dakota, and
below normal in North Dakota, so that by the
breeding season, wetland conditions were generally
good to excellent across the region. The best
conditions were found in eastern South Dakota, and
were drier to the northwest; the poorest conditions
were in northwest North Dakota. May ponds were
41% higher than in 2000 (P<0.001), and 58% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). The total duck
estimate in the eastern Dakotas was 9.3 million birds,
11% lower (P=0.05) than last year’s record high
estimate of 10.4 million birds, but still 133% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). The mallard
estimate this year was a record high 2.3 million, and
is 203% above the long-term average. Gadwall (1.1
million, -38%) and blue-winged teal (3.2 million, -
24%) estimates were down significantly from last
year’s record high levels, but remained above their
long-term averages (P<0.001). Northern shoveler
(+39%) northern pintail (+93%) and canvasback
(+191%) numbers all were above 2000 levels
(P<0.02), and their long-term averages. Mallards
(+203%) and scaup (+85%) were above their
respective long-term averages, but unchanged from
last year (P>0.26). Both states experienced cool
temperatures and good precipitation through the first
3 weeks of June, but temperatures increased and
there was little precipitation in late June and early
July. Nonetheless, semi-permanent and permanent
wetlands were full and some seasonal wetlands
remained, providing good brood-rearing habitat in
most areas. July pond numbers were 12% lower than
in 2000, but 43% above the long-term average. The
2001 brood index was 166% above the long-term
average for this region, and 18% below last year’s
record high.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: In northern Saskatchewan and
northern Manitoba (strata 21-25) and western Ontario
(stratum 50), conditions were generally good-to-excellent
for breeding waterfowl. Winter precipitation
was average in most of northern Saskatchewan and
average to above-average in most of northern
Manitoba. However, breeding duck numbers
declined in the region; the total-duck estimate was
23% below that of 2000, and 25% below the long-term
average (P<0.02). Scaup (-56%), gadwall (-
47%), wigeon (-62%), pintail (-78%), mallard (-49%),
blue-winged teal (-46%), and redheads (-72%), were
all were below were all below long-term averages
(P<0.03). Only green-winged teal and northern
shoveler numbers were similar to long-term averages
(P>0.87). Conditions continued to look ideal across
much of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba as of
July. Water levels in lakes were high, but there was
little flooding. Streams and beaver ponds were full.
Habitat appeared excellent for brood survival in most
areas. Although nesting and brood-rearing
conditions were excellent, because of low breeding
pair numbers, the outlook for production in this region
is only good.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: Conditions were variable in
northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and
the Northwest Territories (strata 13-18, 20, 75-77). In
the southern regions of the survey area, conditions
were very dry, especially around Lesser Slave Lake,
and conditions were poor. Further north into Alberta
and northeastern British Columbia conditions
improved, as this area received normal winter and
18
spring precipitation, and this area was fair to good for
breeding waterfowl. Northern Alberta and the
Northwest Territories had above-average winter and
spring precipitation, and wetland conditions there
were excellent. The number of total ducks
decreased 20% (P<0.001) compared to 2000, and
was 25% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Mallards (-24%) and green-winged teal (-42%)
decreased from 2000 levels (P<0.03). Gadwall
(+179%) were above their long-term average, while
wigeon (-22%), blue-winged teal (-56%), Northern
pintail (-56%), and scaup (-46%) were below long-term
averages (P<0.05). Northern shoveler and
canvasback estimates did not differ from either 2000
estimates or their long-term averages (P>0.35). Late
rain improved conditions in the southern portion of
northern Alberta, but came too late to improve duck
production. Summer rains kept ponds and drainage
basins full, resulting in good quality brood-rearing
habitat, but low breeding pair numbers means
production will be below average.
Alaska and Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory: In
Alaska and Old Crow Flats (strata 1-12), breeding
conditions depend largely on the timing of spring
phenology, because wetland conditions are less
variable than on the prairies. Although winter
temperatures were mild, spring-like weather
arrived late. Below-average waterfowl production
was expected to the north and west, with average
production expected to the south and east. Total
duck numbers were similar to 2000, were the second
highest count on record, and remained 93% above
the long-term average (P<0.001). Green-winged teal
were recorded at a record high abundance. All
species estimates were unchanged compared to
2000 levels (P>0.15). Mallards (+128%), American
wigeon (+141%), green-winged teal (+238%),
Northern shovelers (+196%), Northern pintails
(+58%), and scaup (+26%) all were above their long-term
averages (P<0.03). Canvasback abundance
was similar to the long-term average (P>0.9). The
generally late spring suggests that production will be
below-average or average from this region this year.
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding waterfowl habitat
conditions in the eastern survey area (strata 51-56
and 62-69) were variable but generally good.
Southern Ontario and northern New York enjoyed
an early spring, and with wetland basins nearly
full, the outlook for breeding ducks is good.
Spring-like weather was also early in Quebec, with
good-to-excellent habitat in the central and
northern portions. However, southern Quebec
was drier, and conditions there ranged from fair to
poor. In Maine and the Maritime provinces warm
weather came late, with lower than normal
temperatures, but above-average precipitation.
Habitat conditions were rated good throughout the
region. The estimate of total ducks was unchanged
from 2000 and the 1996-2000 average. Ring-necked
ducks decreased below their 2000 level (-43%), while
buffleheads increased (+93%; P=0.05). Ring-necked
ducks (-34%), and green-winged teal (-30%) were
below the 1996-2000 average, while buffleheads
were 100% higher than average (P<0.03). Overall,
eastern habitats were in good condition, with
average to above-average production expected.
Other areas: The number of ducks observed in
British Columbia’s annual survey were similar to that
observed last year, but breeding habitat conditions
were below average, and worse than the previous
two years. A cold and dry spring meant poor wetland
conditions and late arrival of early-nesting species.
The Pacific Northwest generally experienced normal
levels of fall, winter and spring precipitation during
1998-2000, but conditions were dry this past winter.
The Washington total duck breeding index was
165,000, up from 143,600 last year. Mallard
numbers went from 48,000 last year to 63,000 in
2001. Fall, winter and spring precipitation was
normal in most of California and nesting habitat for
this year was average to below average. Duck
production is expected to be average to below
average. A lower than average fall flight is expected.
Total duck and mallard numbers remained
unchanged from last year, but total ducks were 28%
below the long-term average. Mallard numbers were
similar to the long-term average. Conditions in the
western U.S. were variable, generally good in mid-western
states such as Nebraska and Minnesota,
becoming drier to the west. In Nebraska, conditions
were substantially wetter than last year, with a 119%
increase in water areas counted in the annual aerial
survey. The estimated breeding duck population in
the Nebraska Sandhills increased 26% from last
year; in particular many diver species exhibited
dramatic increases over 2000. Mallards, gadwalls
and blue-winged teal all increased by more than 25%
relative to 2000. Conditions in Nevada were dry;
spring weather was about 2 weeks later than normal,
and poor duck production was expected. Conditions
were also dry in Wyoming and it is likely duck
production will be fair-to-poor. The Lake States
received abundant rain, and conditions were
generally good in Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Pond numbers decreased 49% in
Minnesota compared to 2000, and were 23% above
the 1968-2000 average. Mallard, blue-winged teal
and total duck numbers were unchanged compared
to 2000, but blue-winged teal were at their lowest
19
levels since 1983. Wisconsin total duck numbers
and mallards were down from 2000 levels by 29%
and 55%, respectively. In Michigan, mallard numbers
were similar to last year’s, but were 27% below the
1992-2000 long-term average. Total duck numbers
did not differ from last year’s level, and were 27%
below the long-term average. In the Mid-Atlantic
state, winter and spring temperatures were normal to
above- normal. Winter precipitation was below
normal, but normal to above normal in spring. In
New England, weather patterns were similar, except
that winter temperatures were below normal. Total
duck and mallard numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s
plot survey were similar to the 2000 estimates
(P>0.34) and to the long-term averages (P>0.34).
Mallard Fall-flight index
The size of the midcontinent mallard population,
which is comprised of mallards from the traditional
survey area, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,
was 8.7 million birds (Fig. 4). This was 18% lower
than that of 2000 (10.5 million, P<0.01). This year,
the weights associated with the midcontinent mallard
population models reflect continued support for the
hypothesis of strongly density-dependent
reproduction. Thus, the 2001 mid-continent mallard
fall-flight estimate of 10.5 million birds is predicted to
be lower (P=0.02) than the 2000 estimate of 11.2
million birds.
Millions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Year
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Fig. 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
References
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2001. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(http://www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2001. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
publication Downsview, ON.
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2001. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
(http://www.usds.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
Washington, D.C.
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in
L.H. Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P.
Havera, D.A. Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S.
Taylor, eds. Proceedings of the 1988 North
American Wood Duck Symposium, St.
Louis, MO.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2001 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington,
D.C. 47pp.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Waterfowl
Population Survey Section area reports.
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.
html.)
20
21
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of 30 populations of North American Canada
geese (Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross’s geese (C. rossii), emperor geese
(C. canagicus), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). Conditions for nesting
geese in Arctic areas ranged from poor in the west to excellent in the east. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, the North Slope,
the Mackenzie and Anderson River Deltas, and islands of the western Arctic all experienced delayed snowmelt which likely
reduced goose and swan productivity. In the central Arctic, spring phenology was near average. In much of the eastern
Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands, and Ungava Peninsula, phenology appeared to be earlier than average and nesting
conditions for geese and swans generally were favorable. Of the 27 populations for which current estimates were
available, 6 exhibited declines of more than 10% from previous annual estimates. Ten populations (4 resident populations
of Canada geese, cackling Canada geese, Western Central Flyway light geese, greater snow geese, both white-fronted
goose populations and western tundra swans) displayed significant positive trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Canada
geese exhibited a significant negative trend over the most recent 10-year period. Forecasts for production of young in 2001
varied regionally, but generally will be reduced in the western areas and improved in the eastern portions of North America.
This section summarizes information regarding the
status and expected fall flights of goose and tundra swan
populations in North America. Information was compiled
from a broad geographic area and is provided to assist
managers in regulating harvest. We have used the most
widely-accepted nomenclature for various waterfowl
populations, but they may differ from other published
information. Many of the 30 goose populations described
herein are comprised of more than one subspecies and
some light goose populations contain lesser snow geese
and Ross’s geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North America
nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of Alaska and
Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada goose populations
nest in southern Canada and the U.S. (“resident
populations”). Different populations are monitored by
various methods on breeding, migration, or wintering
areas. The annual production of young by northern-nesting
geese is influenced greatly by weather conditions
on the breeding grounds, especially the timing of spring
snowmelt and its impact on the initiation of nesting activity
(i.e., phenology). Persistent snow cover reduces nest site
availability, delays nesting activity, and often results in
depressed reproductive effort and productivity. In general,
goose productivity will be better than average if nesting
begins by late May in western and central portions of the
Arctic, and by early June in the eastern Arctic. Production
in the Arctic usually is poor if nesting is delayed much
beyond 15 June. For southern-nesting Canada goose
populations, recruitment rates are less variable and annual
productivity is more dependent on the size and age
structure of the breeding population. Due to the early
preparation of this report, the annual productivity of most
goose populations can only be predicted qualitatively,
based on habitat conditions and spring phenology.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from Federal,
State, and Provincial agencies and universities
(Appendices B, I, and J). Surveys include the Midwinter
Survey (MWS, conducted each January in wintering
areas), the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
(BPHS, see Duck section of this report), surveys
specifically designed for various populations, and others.
When survey methodology allowed, 95% confidence
intervals are presented with population estimates. The
10-year trends of population estimates were calculated
through regression of the natural logarithm of survey
results on year and the slope coefficient was tested for
equality to zero (t-test). Changes in population indices
between the current and previous years were calculated,
and where possible assessed with a z-test using the sum
of sampling variances for the 2 estimates.
Habitat conditions during the 2001 breeding season
were assessed using climate data and reports from field
biologists. The portion of North America covered by snow
or ice in early June was determined from Northern
Hemisphere Snow and Ice Boundary summaries prepared
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(http://hpssd1en.wwb.noaa.gov/sab/snow/archive/nhem).
These reports provide general information but may not
provide reliable assessment for all locations. Forecasts of
productivity were based on information from various
waterfowl surveys and interviews with field biologists.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Breeding ground conditions for northern-nesting geese
and swans generally improved from west to east across
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Greenland
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
Fig. 1. Important Arctic and sub-arctic nesting areas of North American geese.
22
23
the Arctic and subarctic in 2001. Biologists report
that spring phenology was late in northwestern
Alaska, the Mackenzie Delta, and islands of the
western Arctic. In the Queen Maud Gulf of the
central Arctic, spring phenology was near average,
but the nesting period was unusually cold and wet.
On Southampton Island, southern Baffin Island, and
the Ungava Peninsula, spring breakup was earlier
than average and conditions for waterfowl were
excellent. However, the eastern high Arctic
experienced heavy winter snowfall and nesting
phenology there may be slightly delayed. Spring
conditions in southeastern Alaska were near normal
although a late storm affected geese at the Copper
River Delta. Subarctic areas around Hudson and
James Bays also thawed early and nesting
conditions were good. Heavy winter snowfall and a
cold spring delayed nesting on insular
Newfoundland. The snow and ice cover graphic
(Fig. 2, provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration) indicates more
extensive coverage in portions of Alaska and the
central Arctic, and less coverage in northern
Quebec. (Fig. 2). More specific information for each
population follows.
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions influencing goose productivity vary less
from year to year in mid-latitude areas of North
America than in the Arctic. Given adequate wetland
numbers and the absence of flood events these
southern-nesting populations are reliably
productive. Wetland numbers in the eastern
portions of the Traditional Survey Area and much of
mid-latitude North America remain above average,
however western portions of the continent are
experiencing drought conditions. A cool late spring
may have reduced productivity in the Altantic Flyway.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese nest in Newfoundland and Labrador. They
generally mix during winter with AP and AFRP
Canada geese, although NAP have a more coastal
distribution than these other populations.
A total of 129,300 (69,300-189,200) Canada
geese were estimated during the 2001 BPHS in
NAP range (strata 66 and 67), down 26% from last
year (P=0.38). There is no trend in this estimate
since surveys were initiated in 1996 (P=0.15). The
2001 BPHS estimate of indicated pairs (singles plus
pairs) was 57,800, essentially unchanged from 2000
(58,000). The indicated pair estimate showed no
trend from 1996-2001 (P=0.34). A wet winter and
cold spring may have delayed nesting on insular
Newfoundland where geese were concentrated
along the coast during the BPHS. Nesting studies
here indicated reproductive effort was delayed
compared to prior years. A NAP fall flight smaller
than last year is expected.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentration occurs on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
AP surveys indicated a total spring population of
637,000 (470,500-803,400) geese in 2001, 1%
lower than last year (P=0.96, Fig. 4). The survey
estimate of 146,700 (114,900-178,400) breeding
pairs in 2001 is 57% higher than last year (P=0.05).
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America for 3-5 June, 2000 and 3 June, 2001. The figures
were produced from reports prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2000 2001
24
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America. Population names are abbreviated as in text.
25
The breeding pair estimate has shown no trend
since 1993 (P=0.12). However, this population has
made a rapid recovery since reaching a low of
29,000 breeding pairs in 1995. Since 1995, when
hunting seasons were closed, the breeding pair
estimate has increased an average of 23% per year
(P = 0.003). Nesting conditions appeared favorable
with very little snow present at the time of survey and
a high proportion of breeding pairs observed as
singles (females likely on nests). Ground studies
indicated nesting was earlier than normal near
Puvirnituq, Quebec and biologists expected high
nest success and good production. Nest density
increased nearly 100% from last year near Kuujjuaq,
Quebec. A fall flight larger than last year is
expected.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population inhabits southern Quebec, the southern
Maritime provinces, and all States of the Atlantic
Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2001 estimated there were
1,011,300 (817,300-1,214,500) Canada geese in the
northeastern United States (Fig. 5), similar (P>0.95)
to the previous year’s count. These estimates have
increased an average of 8% per year since 1991
(P<0.001). A cold wet spring in the northeast may
have delayed nesting by about a week but little
flooding of nest sites occurred. A large fall flight,
similar to last year is expected.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Lowlands to the west and south of James Bay. The
SJBP winters from southern Michigan to Mississippi,
Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 102,700 (74,800-130,600) Canada
geese in 2001, 15% higher than last year (P=0.43,
Fig. 6). There is no trend in this estimate since 1992
(P=0.19). In 2001 there were 34,150 (25,100-
43,200) breeding pairs, which is 12% lower (P=0.39)
than last year. Survey timing was good and molt
migrants likely were not a factor in this year’s survey.
Winter snowfall in the Hudson Bay Lowlands was
relatively light, April-May temperatures were mild,
and spring snowmelt was early. On Akimiski Island,
nesting phenology was the second earliest, on
record and indices of gosling production were
among the highest recorded since ground studies
began in 1993. High winds and precipitation
occurred in the Hudson Bay Lowlands 1-2 weeks
after hatch and may have impacted gosling survival.
With a higher total population and good productivity
a larger fall flight than last year is expected.
Fig. 5. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of Atlan-tic
Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 4. Estimated number of breeding pairs (and 95% confidence
intervals) of Atlantic Population Canada Geese in northern Que-bec.
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
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60
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160
180
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
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26
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Lowlands west of James
Bay and south of Hudson Bay. MVP Canada geese
primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin and Illinois (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in May 2001
indicated a total population of 468,600 (388,300-
548,800) Canada geese, a 56% decline (P=0.04)
from last spring (Fig. 7). There is no trend in this
estimate since 1992 (P=0.59). The number of
coastal non-breeders present in 2001 was estimated
from the previous 10-year average. Biologists
estimated there were 176,600 (151,900-201,200)
nests in 2001, 5% fewer than in 2000 (P=0.67).
There is no 10-year trend for numbers of MVP nests
(P=0.23). The MVP breeding grounds experienced
light winter snowfall and relatively early spring,
similar to the SJBP range. At a new MVP study
area, spring phenology was early and goose
productivity was higher than previously observed at
other MVP sites. Although gosling production will be
only slightly reduced, biologists predict a fall flight
much smaller than last year due to the smaller
number of non-breeding geese.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all States. These large geese now
represent a significant portion of all Canada geese
in the Mississippi Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2001, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,371,100, which is 8%
lower than the 2000 estimate (Fig. 8). These
estimates have increased an average of 6% per
year since 1993 (P<0.001). Biologists reported that
conditions in Manitoba were very good for
production, but flooding and wet brood-rearing
periods may have reduced production in southern
Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. Other areas
expected good production and another large fall
flight is expected.
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
migrate and winter primarily in Manitoba, Minnesota,
and Missouri (Fig. 3).
The spring 2001 estimate of EPP geese was
215,400 (187,000-243,800), 22% lower than in 2000
(P = 0.01, Fig. 9). There has been no trend (P=0.46)
in the spring estimate over the last 10 years. The
2001 estimate for singles and pairs was 122,200
Fig. 9. Estimated number (and 95% CI) of Eastern Prairie Popula-tion
Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 7. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fig. 8. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population of
Canada geese during spring.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Thousands
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1600
27
(105,000-139,500), 6% lower (P=0.56) than last
year. Spring phenology was earlier in 2001 than in
2000. Nesting studies near Cape Churchill indicated
an earlier than average nesting season, and well-above
average nest densities, mean clutch size, and
nest success. Researchers also reported a large
increase in nesting snow geese on the Cape
Churchill study area and south to the Broad River.
Biologists expect a fall flight similar in size to last
year but which contains a higher proportion of young
geese.
Western Prairie Population/Great Plains
Population (WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of
mid-sized and large Canada geese that nest in
eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The
GPP is composed of large geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3).
These 2 populations are managed jointly and
surveyed during winter. During the 2001 MWS
survey, 682,700 WPP/GPP geese were counted,
15% more than the 2000 estimate (Fig. 10). This
index has increased an average 9% per year since
1992 (P<0.001). A 2001 index of the spring
population in a portion of WPP/GPP range from the
BPHS was 558,700. The BPHS estimates have
increased an average of 12% per year since 1992
(P<0.001). Habitat conditions during the nesting
period were very good in western Manitoba and
eastern Saskatchewan. States in GPP range
indicated production should be average to above
average in 2001. The WPP/GPP remains well
above objective levels and a fall flight larger than last
year is expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): TGPP
small Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on
the Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton,
and King William Islands, north from the Maguse
and McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast,
and west to the Queen Maud Gulf. TGPP Canada
geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas, and
northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix with
other Canada geese on wintering areas, making it
difficult to estimate the size of the population.
During the 2001 MWS in the Central Flyway
149,100 TGPP geese were tallied, a decrease of
50% from 2000 (Fig. 11). There has been no trend
in the Central Flyway count during 1992-2001
(P=0.82). Spring breakup was early during 2001 on
Southampton Island, and expected to be early on
Baffin Island and the northwest coast of Hudson
Bay. Previous fall surveys conducted on Baffin
Island suggest an increasing or stable population.
Little information on TGPP geese was available at
this writing, but based on early spring phenology
biologists expect good production. However,
considering decreases in winter indices from the
Central Flyway, the fall flight likely will be reduced
from last year.
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): SGPP
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from Queen Maud Gulf
west and south to the Mackenzie River and northern
Alberta. These geese winter in southeastern
Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the
Fig. 10. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter in the Central Flyway.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
100
200
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400
500
600
28
During the 2001 MWS, biologists counted
164,100 SGPP Canada geese, 18% lower than in
2000 (Fig. 12). This index has declined 11% per year
since 1992 (P=0.03). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2001
BPHS estimated 116,600 (78,300-155,000) SGPP
geese, a 110% increase from 2000 (P=0.01). This
estimate showed no trend since 1992 (P=0.22).
Spring phenology in the central Queen Maud Gulf
was near normal, but the nesting period was cold
and snowy which may reduce nesting success.
Further north and west to Victoria Island, Kent
Peninsula, and the Mackenzie Delta, spring
phenology was delayed and production likely was
depressed. However, nesting conditions to the
south, in the boreal portions of SGPP range
appeared favorable. Based on a reduced January
population estimate and poor conditions over most
of the northern nesting range, a fall flight smaller
than last year is expected.
Hi-Line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2001 MWS indicated a total HLP population
of 252,900 geese, which is 7% below last year’s
estimate (Fig. 13). The MWS estimate has increased
an average of 7% per year since 1992 (P=0.05). An
estimate of the spring population was obtained from
the 2001 BPHS in areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta,
and Montana. The BPHS estimate was 252,800,
9% lower than the previous year (P=0.56). This
population estimate has increased 6% per year
since 1992 (P=0.002). Nesting conditions were poor
to fair throughout much of the breeding range.
Production was reduced due to drought in most
areas, and to spring storms and flooding in
Colorado. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be reduced from that of last year.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta, the inter-mountain
regions of Utah, Idaho, Nevada, and
Wyoming, and in western Montana. They winter
mainly in central and southern California, Arizona,
Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
During the 2001 MWS, 110,600 geese were
counted, an 8% increase from the previous year
(Fig. 14). There is no trend in MWS estimates since
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Hi-Line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
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300
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
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80
100
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29
1992. The estimate of spring population derived
from the BPHS in 2001 was 161,400, 3% lower than
last year (P=0.92). The BPHS estimate has
increased 7% per year during the last 10 years
(P=0.02). Most RMP breeding areas are
experiencing drought, but low snowpack also
reduces spring flooding in inter-mountain areas.
Biologists expect near average production in most
areas and a large fall flight similar to last year.
Pacific Population (PP): These large geese nest
and winter west of the Rocky Mountains from British
Columbia south through the Pacific northwest to
California (Fig. 3).
Wetland abundance in the range of the PP has
been reduced due to prolonged drought. The
drought has reduced nesting potential for some
geese but also eliminated the nest destruction
caused by flooding. In California, the 2001 estimate
of breeding geese declined 26% from 2000, but the
estimate of production declined only 14%. In
Nevada, production in 2001 was expected to be
reduced due to the dry conditions. However, nesting
indices in Washington this spring were 10% higher
than last year and production was expected to be
average to above-average in Montana and Oregon.
The size of the fall flight can not be reliably predicted
without more information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest in the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska. Dusky Canada geese
principally winter in the Willamette Valley and Lower
Columbia River of Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2000-01 population estimate was
17,300 (12,000-22,600), which is 11% higher, but not
significantly different (P=0.62) than the estimate from
the previous winter (Fig. 15). There was no trend in
these estimates during 1991/92-2000/01 (P=0.63).
Preliminary results from the 2001 spring survey of
the Copper River Delta indicated the index of total
Dusky geese, and singles and pairs increased
roughly 15% from last year’s indices, which were the
lowest recorded in the 15 years of the survey.
Although nesting phenology appeared average, a
late snow storm during nesting caused substantial
nest abandonment. However, renesting effort was
high and second nests appeared to have very good
nest success, likely because more advanced foliage
provided better concealment from predators. A fall
flight similar to, or slightly improved from last year is
expected.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of western
Alaska. They primarily winter in the Willamette
Valley and Lower Columbia River of Oregon and
Washington (Fig. 3).
The population index for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-84. Since 1985 the index has
been a predicted fall population derived from spring
surveys on the Yukon Delta. The fall 2000 index was
211,900, less than 1% greater than 1999. This index
of cackling Canada geese has increased an average
of 8% per year since 1991 (P < 0.001, Fig. 16). In
the coastal zone of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in
spring 2001, total cackling geese increased 13%,
and single and paired geese were unchanged (+1%)
from 2000. Spring nesting phenology was later
than recent years on the Delta and nesting effort
in study plots was reduced by about 38% from
last year. In addition, nest success was reduced
Fig. 15. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 16. Number of cackling Canada geese estimated from fall and
spring surveys.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ross's
Geese
Greater Snow
Geese
Atlantic Brant
Pacific Brant
Mid-continent
Population
Pacific
Population
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Western Arctic Population
Population
Western Central Flyway
Population
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel Island
Population
Populations of
Brant
30
31
by high fox predation and major flooding in the
coastal zone. A fall flight smaller than last year is
expected.
Lesser Canada Geese: This population nests
throughout much of interior and south-central Alaska
and winters in Washington, Oregon, and California
(Fig. 3). Throughout the year, lesser Canada geese
mix with other Canada geese and no reliable
estimate of population size is available.
Spring breakup was late throughout western and
northwestern Alaska but areas to the southeast
experienced near normal spring phenology.
Eventually spring temperatures rose quickly and
caused substantial flooding along several interior
rivers. The estimated number of Canada geese
within lesser Canada goose population range from
the 2001 BPHS (strata 1-6, 8-12) was 272,500, 14%
higher than last year but showing no trend since
1992 (P=0.79). A fall flight similar to last year is
expected.
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese
currently breed only on the Aleutian Islands although
historically they nested from near Kodiak Island,
Alaska, to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now winter
along the Pacific Coast to central California. This
population declined precipitously in the early 1900s,
primarily due to the introduction of foxes to its
nesting islands. The Aleutian Canada goose was
federally listed as endangered in 1967. When the
recovery program began in 1974, the population
numbered approximately 800 birds. Currently the
population is estimated at nearly 30,000 and the
population was delisted in March 2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neck-banded birds in Modesto,
California 2000-01 was 29,800, 11% lower than, but
statistically similar (P=0.50) to last year’s estimate
(Fig. 18). Information on breeding ground conditions
is not available, so it is not possible to provide a fall
flight prediction.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross’s geese, including both white and blue
color phases, and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) subspecies of snow
goose. Another cumulative term, Mid-continent
Light Geese, includes lesser snow and Ross’s
geese of 2 populations, the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross’s Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but some nest along
western coast of Hudson Bay and Southampton,
Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's geese are
represented in 3 different populations of light geese
(MCP, WCFP, and WAWI) and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Mexico, and Texas with
increasing numbers in Louisiana (Fig. 17).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross’s
goose population is increasing rapidly and has
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total wintering population size are not
available, but surveys on major wintering areas
indicate increases in range and proportion of Ross's
geese. The largest colony in the Queen Maud Gulf
is at Karrak Lake. Researchers determined the
nesting population there has grown at 10% per year
from 1993-2000 (P=0.02). Spring phenology at
Karrak Lake was near normal in 2001, but the
nesting and hatching period was colder and wetter
than normal. These conditions may reduce gosling
production and biologists expect average to slightly
below average production from the Queen Maud
Gulf. Nesting conditions for Ross’s geese in areas
of range expansion were generally favorable (poor
on Banks Island, but good on the Hudson Bay coast
and Southampton Island). Although production will
likely be similar to last year, the size of the fall flight
cannot be predicted without an annual index to the
size of the breeding population.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): This population,
including lesser snows and increasing numbers of
Ross’s geese, nests along the west coast of Hudson
Bay and on Southampton and Baffin Islands
(Fig. 17). These geese winter primarily in eastern
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from winter Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
estimates and mark-resight methods.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
32
During the 2001 MWS, biologists counted
2,341,300 light geese, about 2% fewer than last year
(Fig. 19). The MWS index for the MCP has declined
for the last 3 years and no longer exhibits a 10-year
trend (P=0.11). The timing of spring breakup was
favorable for MCP geese across most of their range.
On Southampton Island spring phenology was
estimated to be 2 weeks earlier than average. South
Baffin Island had fewer spring blizzards than usual
and an early spring breakup. Areas of the Hudson
Bay Lowlands from La Perouse Bay to Cape
Henrietta Maria also experienced spring weather
very favorable to geese. This year biologists
observed a substantial increase in the usually low
number of snow goose nests between Cape
Churchill and the Broad River on the Hudson Bay
coast. Indices of breeding snow geese at the Cape
Henrietta Maria colony increased to 129,000 in
2001, up 47% from last year. Snow geese also
reestablished a small nesting colony west of Winisk,
Ontario and the number of nests increased at the
small colony on Akimiski Island. Although spring
phenology was beneficial to nesting geese and plant
growth in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, periodic high
winds and precipitation events during the brood-rearing
period may have reduced gosling survival.
Early spring phenology throughout much of the MCP
breeding range suggests the fall flight will be larger
than produced by last year’s poor production.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is comprised primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese breed in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage in fall in eastern Alberta and western
Saskatchewan and spend the winter in southeastern
Colorado, New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and
the northern highlands of Mexico (Fig. 17).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 105,800
geese were counted in January 2001, 23% fewer
than last year (Fig. 20). These MWS estimates have
increased 8% per year since 1992 (P=0.07).
Biologists working near Karrak Lake in the Queen
Maud Gulf region reported that spring phenology
was near average but the nesting and hatching
period was colder and wetter than usual. These
conditions may reduce gosling production and
biologists expect average to slightly below average
production from the Queen Maud Gulf. Breeding
conditions deteriorated to the west. At Sachs Harbor
on Banks Island, spring breakup was the latest
recorded since 1960. Snow goose nesting
phenology on Banks Island was delayed and
biologists estimated a smaller than normal
proportion of geese attempted to nest. Biologists
also report delayed and reduced nesting effort at the
Anderson River and Kendall Island colonies.
Production likely will be poor from western areas and
near average in eastern areas. Despite a lower
winter index in 2001, a fall flight similar to last year’s
fall flight (with poor production) is expected.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Fig. 20. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway Population
light geese during winter.
Fig. 19. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light geese
(lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
33
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, Jenny Lind
Island, the western Queen Maud Gulf region) or
Wrangel Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population winters
in central and southern California, New Mexico, and
Mexico; the WI segment winters in the Puget Sound
area of Washington and in northern and central
California (Fig. 17). Winter ranges overlap in
California and interchange of individuals between
the two breeding sites may occur. Separate winter
counts for the WA and WI segments are not
obtainable because of commingling with each other
and other light geese.
The number of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway
in fall of 2000 was estimated at 656,800 individuals,
which is 13% larger than estimated in 1999 (Fig. 21).
There is no trend in this estimate during fall 1991-
2000 (P=0.36). Biologists working at nesting
colonies on Banks Island, Kendall Island, and the
Anderson River reported a late spring breakup and
delayed nesting, and predicted below-average
production. On Wrangel Island the total spring
population was estimated at 105,000, 11% higher
than last year. Biologists estimated 25,000 nests
were present with an average clutch size of 3.6
eggs, both similar to last year. Although production
from the WI should be similar to last year, anticipated
poor production from the proportionately larger WA
population should result in a reduced fall flight of the
WAWI this year.
Greater snow geese: This subspecies nests
principally on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere, and
Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. They winter along
the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to North Carolina
(Fig. 17).
The preliminary estimate from the spring 2001
photographic survey of greater snow geese in the St.
Lawrence Valley was 690,300. The 2001 estimate
was 15% below last year’s final and record high
estimate of 813,900 geese (Fig. 22). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 6% per year since 1992 (P<0.001). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2001
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 280,200, a 40%
decrease from the previous survey. Midwinter
counts have increased an average of 6% per year
during 1992-2001 (P=0.05). The largest known
greater snow goose colony is on Bylot Island.
Winter snowfall on Bylot was above average.
However, spring snowmelt progressed rapidly and
median nest initiation was 13-14 June, just 2-3 days
later than average. Remaining snow may have
limited the availability of nest sites. Nest densities in
2001 were similar to last year but not as high as in
peak years of 1997 and 1998. Nest success and
conditions at hatch were favorable. Biologists
expect good production from this colony. A fall flight
similar to last year is expected.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population (PP): These geese primarily
nest in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska and
winter in the Central Valley of California (Fig. 17).
The population index for this population was a fall
estimate 1979-99. Beginning in 2000 the population
index has been a predicted fall population derived
from spring surveys on the Yukon Delta. The 2000
index is 307,000, an increase of 15% from the fall
1999 estimate (Fig. 23). Spring surveys indicated
total white-fronts and breeding pairs increased 27%
Fig. 22. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population of light geese during winter.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
34
and 46%, respectively, from last year’s survey.
Spring survey estimates have increased an average
of 10% per year from 1992-2001 (P<0.001). Spring
phenology on the Delta was delayed but nesting
surveys indicated a slight increase in nesting effort
from last year. High nest predation rates by an
unusually high number of foxes in coastal areas and
the late spring likely reduced production. Based on
a higher fall estimate but reduced production, a fall
flight similar to last year is expected.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): These white-fronted
geese nest across a broad region from
central and northwestern Alaska across the central
Arctic to the Foxe Basin. They concentrate in
southern Saskatchewan during the fall and winter in
Texas, Louisiana, and Mexico (Fig. 17).
In the fall of 2000, 1,067,600 MCP geese were
counted in Saskatchewan and Alberta, an increase
of 11% from the 1999 estimate (Fig. 23). This
population estimate has increased 6% per year
during 1992-2000 (P=0.07). Spring phenology on
MCP breeding grounds varied from late in northern
and interior Alaska and the Mackenzie and
Anderson River Deltas to near average in the Queen
Maud Gulf. Flooding along interior Alaska river
systems, and a cold nesting period in the Queen
Maud Gulf likely reduced production in those areas.
A fall flight similar to last year is expected.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from Massachusetts
to North Carolina (Fig. 17).
The 2001 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 145,300, 8% less than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 24). No trend was detected (P=0.72)
in this estimate over the most recent 10-year period.
Spring breakup in 2001 was early in the eastern
Arctic; up to 2 weeks earlier than average on
Southampton Island. The advanced phenology is
expected to increase production on the northern
breeding grounds of brant. A larger fall flight than
last year is expected.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and North Slope,
Banks Island, other islands of the western and
central Arctic, the Queen Maud Gulf, and Wrangel
Island. They winter as far south as Baja California
and the west coast of Mexico (Fig. 17).
The 2001 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 124,700 brant, 8% lower than
the previous year’s count (Fig. 24). No trend was
evident in this estimate during 1992-2001 (P=0.37).
Spring breakup was later than recent years on the
Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and later than average on
the North Slope, Banks Island, and likely much of
the Pacific Brant’s breeding range. Brant nest
density and success were reduced substantially in
the 5 Yukon Delta colonies. Nest success was
reduced by an unusually high fox population and by
major flooding in the coastal zone during mid-June.
A fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This
recently recognized population of brant nest on
the Parry Islands of the Northwest Territories.
The population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Fig. 24. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific populations of
brant during winter.
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific
Populations of greater white-fronted geese during fall.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pacific
Mid-continent
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
35
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far south
as Mexico. Breast and belly plumage of WHA
brant are predominantly gray, intermediate
between Atlantic brant and black brant, but other
color morphs have been captured in molting flocks
on breeding areas. The development of a
management plan and monitoring program are
underway for this newly designated population.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of the emperor goose is
restricted to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with the
largest concentration on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
in Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively short
distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian Islands
(Fig. 26). Since 1981, emperor geese have been
surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2001 survey estimate was 84,400
geese, 35% higher than last year's count (Fig. 25).
The 3-year running average is now 67,200 geese.
No trend was detected in the number of geese
counted during 1992-2001 (P=0.75). Spring indices
of breeding pairs and total birds collected from the
2001 Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta coastal survey
increased 36% and 74%, respectively, from last
spring. Spring breakup and nesting phenology were
later than in recent years on the Yukon-Kuskokwim
Delta. Emperor goose nest densities were reduced
by 60% from last year and nest destruction rates
were high due to an abnormally large fox population.
A fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population: These swans nest along the
coastal lowlands of western Alaska, particularly
between the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. They
winter primarily in California, Utah, and the Pacific
Northwest (Fig. 26).
The 2001 MWS estimate of 90,300 swans was
essentially unchanged (+1%) from the 2000 estimate
(Fig. 27). However, this population index has been
increasing at an average rate of 5% per year since
1992 (P=0.09). The spring 2001 estimates of total
swans, breeding pairs, and nests on the Yukon-
Kuskokwim Delta declined 16%, 14%, and 29%,
respectively, from last spring. Spring breakup in
western Alaska in 2001 was later than in recent years
and results of nest plots surveys indicate nesting
effort was reduced by about 10% from last year. A
fall flight smaller than last year is expected.
Eastern Population: Eastern Population tundra
swans nest from the Seward Peninsula of Alaska to
the northeast shore of Hudson Bay and Baffin Island.
These birds winter in coastal areas from Maryland to
North Carolina (Fig. 26)
During the 2001 MWS, 98,200 eastern tundra
swan were observed, 5% lower than last year (Fig.
27). During the last 10 years there has been no
trend in this estimate (P=0.25). In the western
portion of this population’s breeding range spring
phenology was delayed and swan production likely
will be reduced. Indices of tundra nesting swans in
Alaska (strata 8-11) in 2001 increased 13% from last
year, but the number of swans observed with nests
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 26. Approximate range of the Emperor goose, and eastern
and western swan populations in North America.
Fig. 25. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during May
surveys.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
36
declined to about 50% of average. East of the
Queen Maud Gulf, spring phenology was early and
nesting conditions should be good. Overall, a fall
flight similar to last year is expected.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
Fig. 27. Estimated numbers of the Eastern and Western
Populations of tundra swans during winter.
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska and Yukon Territory (Old Crow Flats): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories: C. Ferguson and P. Corr
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba: F. Roetker and J. Kreilich Jr.
Southern and Central Alberta
Air E. Buelna and A. Davenport
Ground D. Duncan a, P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, R. Russell b, B. Peers c, T. Matthews c,
M. Johnson a, L. Crowe a, C. Procter a, J. Spenst b, S. Witham c, M. Barr c
Southern Saskatchewan
Air P. Thorpe, K. Bollinger, R. King, and H. Bell
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, C. Downie a, M. Hosegood a, C. Lévesque a, P. Nieman a, C. Park
a, A. Williams a, D. Caswell a, M. Schuster a, P. Rakowski a, D. Pisiak b, M. Van Osch c, M. Blanchard a,
J. Galbraith a, F. Baldwin Jr a., A. Dupuis a, B. Carles b
Southern Manitoba
Air R. King, and H. Bell
Ground D. Caswell a, M. Schuster a, P. Rakowski a, D. Pisiak b, M. Van Osch c, G. Ball b, M. Blanchard a, J.
Galbraith a, F. Baldwin Jr. a, A. Dupuis a, G. Hochbaum a, B. Carles b
Montana and Western Dakotas
Air J. Voelzer and R. Bentley
Ground A. Arnold d and V. Griego
Central and Eastern Dakotas
Air J. W. Solberg and S. Thomas
Ground G.T. Allen, M.Ellingson b, P.R. Garrettson, F. Prellwitz
Northern Quebec: J. Wortham and M. Francke
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec: M. Koneff, C. Kitchens-Hayes, D. Holtby b, M. Miller b
Central and Western Ontario: W. Butler, B. Fisher, D. Holtby b, J. Drahota, and B. Raftovich
Maine and Maritimes: J. Bidwell and M. Drut
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and 22 participants from the Candian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited
Canada, British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, private organizations
California
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Adolf b
Ground D. Loughman d, J. Laughlin d, P. Lauridson d, and J. Kwolek d
Colorado: R. Garcia, K. Stone, C. Wagner b, J. Haskins b, J. Hicks b, J. Gammonley b, J. Wenum b, J. Olterman b,
D. Younkin b
Michigan: A. Karr b, B. Lercel b, B. Rogers b, B. Scullon b, B. Rudolph d, D. Luukkonen d, E. Flegler b, E. Kafkasb,
G. Souillereb, J. Robison b, J. Niewoonder b, R. Matthews d, S. Whitcomb b, S. Chadwick b, T. Oliver b,
T. Gierman b
Minnesota
Air D. Stoltman b and J. Lawrence b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, B. Ehlers, R. Johnson, R. Papasso, T. Rondeau, P. Soler, K. Svendsgaard, W.
Brininger, L. Dooley, H. Gee, C. Hanson, N. Jerstad, J. Kelley, G. Tischer, S. Zodrow
Nebraska
Air D. Benning d and N. Lyman b
Ground R. Woods b, M. Vrtiska b, N. Lyman b, D. Benning d
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b and H. Taira b
Nevada N. Saake b
37
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Northeastern U.S.
Data Analysis: H. Heussman b and B. Raftovich
Connecticut: CT Wildlife Division Staff
Delaware: T. Whittendale b
Maryland: D. Brinker b, T. Decker b, T. DeWitt b, B. Evans b, C. Harris b, B. Harvey b, D. Heilmeier b, W. Henry b, R.
Hill b, L. Hindman b, B. Joyce b, B. Martin b, M. Mause b, B. Perry b, D. Price b, G. Timko b, D. Webster b
Massachusetts: H. Heussman b
New Hampshire: E. Robinson b, E. Orff b, J. Robinson b, T. Walski b, K. Tuttle b, K. Bordeau b, K. Bontaites b, M. Fay b, W.
Staats b, J. Kelley b, S. Wheeler b, W. Ingham b
New Jersey: T. Nichols b, P. Castelli b, J. Ziemba b, J. Garris b, J. Mangino b, L. Widjeskog b, D. Wilkinson b, T.
Walker, B. Willard, M. Canale b
New York: Staff of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania: J. Gilbert b, K. Jacobs b, I. Gregg b, J. Dunn b, C. Thoma b
Rhode Island: C. Allin b, B. Tefft b, C. Brown, Sr. b, L. Suprock b, T. Dudek, Sr. d
Vermont: D. Sausville b, J, Mlcuch b, B. Crenshaw b
Washington: D. Kraege b
Wisconsin
Air: L. Waskow b, B. Bacon b, R. McDonough b, C. Milestone b, and P.Samerdyke b
Ground: B. Bacon b, K. Belling b, T. Bahti b, J. Cole b, G. Dahl b, G. Dunsmoor b, D. Evenson b, R. Gatti b, B. Hill b,
J. Huff b, K. Jonas b, M. Kastler b, M. Lehner b, K. Morgan b, A. Nelson b, J. Skelton b, M. Verdon b, P.
David b, D. North b, S. White b, A. Kitchen, J. Ruwaldt, J. Trick, G. VanVreede
Wyoming L. Roberts b
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, B.
Raftovich, and J. Peterson for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (a
survey coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in
estimation of wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS/BRD for conducting the trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others – U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
38
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Coordinated Flyway-wide Surveys: M. Drut, K. Gamble, J. Peterson, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp, and R. Trost
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: W. Harveyb, L. Hindmanb, J. Hughesa, A. Reeda, and J. Rodriguea
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: M. Batemana and J. Serie
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population of Canada Geese: C. Allinb, P. Castellib, G. Chaskob, P. Corrb, G. Costanzob,
J. Dunnb, L. Garlandb, K. Jacobsb, H. W. Heusmannb, L. Hindmanb, K. Jacobsb, W. Lesserb, P. Merolab, E.
Robinsonb, and T. Whittendaleb
Southern James Bay Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Fillmanb, J. Leafloorb , K. Rossa, and L.
Waltonb
Mississippi Valley Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb , J. Berquistb, D. Fillmana, J. Leafloorb, K. Rossa,
and L. Walton
Mississippi Flyway Population Giant Canada Geese: S. Barrryb, J. Berquist b, E. Fleglerb, D. Graberb, M.
Hartmanb, M. Kraftb, J. Lawrenceb, D. Luukkonenb, R. Marshallab, R. Pritchertb, E. Warr, and G. Zennerb
Eastern Prairie Population of Canada Geese: D. Andersend, R. Foster, M. Gillespieb, D. Humburgb, S. Maxsonb,
B. Lubinski, R. Nack, and P. Telanderb
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations of Canada Geese: M. Kraftb, M. O’Meiliab, M. Vritiskab
Tall Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Caseb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa, and M. Mallorya
Short Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, J. Hinesa, and D. Niemana
Hi-Line Population of Canada Geese: A. Didiuka, J. Dubovsky, J. Gammonleyb, J. Hansenb, K. Lungleb, L.
Robertsb, and S. Tessmanb
Rocky Mountain Population of Canada Geese: T. Aldrichb, J. Dubovsky, T. Sandersb , T. Hinzb, J. Herbertb, K.
Lungleb, L. Robertsb, N. Saakeb, and G. Willb
Pacific Population of Canada Geese: A. Breaulta, B. Balesb, C. Feldheimb, T. Hinzb, D. Kraegeb, N. Saakeb, and D.
Yparraguirre
Dusky Canada Geese: B. Eldridge, M. Drut, T. Fondell, B. Larned, D. Logand, M. Naughton, R. Oates, D.
Robertson, T. Rotheb, and R. Trost
Lesser Canada Geese: B. Conant, R. King, E. Mallek, R. Oates, and M. Spindler
Cackling Canada Geese: M. Anthonyd, T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. Oates, B. Platte, D. Marks, B. Stehn,
and R. Trost
Aleutian Canada Geese: M. Drut, R. Trost
Greater Snow Geese: A. Bechetd, K. Dicksona, A. Fontainea, G. Gauthierd, J. Girouxd, J. Hughesa, M. Mallorya, and
A. Reeda
Mid-continent Population Light Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Foster, M. Gillespieb, D.
Humburgb, M. Mallorya, R. Rockwelld, K. Rossa, and P. Telanderb
39
Appendix B. Continued.
Western Central Flyway Population Light Geese: R. Alisauskasa, J. Bredyd, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa,
P. Latoura, and D. Warnera
Western Arctic Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese: V. Baranukd, S. Boyda, J. Bredyd, J. Hinesa,
D. Kraegeb, and R. Trost
Ross’s Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa, D. Warnera, and K. Warnera
Pacific Population of Greater White-Fronted Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, D. Marks, B. Platte, R.
Oates, and B. Stehn
Mid-Continent Population of Greater White-Fronted Geese: R. Alisauskasa, R. Caseb, B. Conant, K. Dicksona, J.
Hinesa, R. Kerbesa, E. Malleck, D. Niemana, M. Spindler, and K. Warnera
Pacific Brant: R. Anthonyd, R. Oates, and R. King
Atlantic Brant: K. Dicksona, M. Mallorya, A. Reeda
Western High Arctic Brant: D. Kraegeb, R. Trost
Emperor Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. King, D. Marks, R. Oates, B. Platte, and B. Stehn
Western Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. Oates, B. Stehn, and R. Trost
Eastern Population of Tundra Swans: J. Fischer, J. Hinesa, B. Larned, and R. Oates
aCanadian Wildlife Service
bState, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
cDucks Unlimited - Canada
dOther organization
All others - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
40
4
2
7
1
6
10 11
9
8
12 13
14
15
17
16
18
20
26
27
21
30
22
23
24
3
76 77
75
28
29 33
32
31
35
34
36
40 37
39 38
25
41
42
45
43 46
47
44 48
49
50 51
57
54
52
55
53
68
56 62
63
64
69
65
67
66
5
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the Breeding Waterfowl and Habitat Survey.
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors (in thousands) in portions of Prairie
Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada Northcentral U.S. a Total
Year Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
SˆE
1961 1977.2 165.4
1962 2369.1 184.6
1963 2482.0 129.3
1964 3370.7 173.0
1965 4378.8 212.2
1966 4554.5 229.3
1967 4691.2 272.1
1968 1985.7 120.2
1969 3547.6 221.9
1970 4875.0 251.2
1971 4053.4 200.4
1972 4009.2 250.9
1973 2949.5 197.6
1974 6390.1 308.3 1840.8 197.2 8230.9 366.0
1975 5320.1 271.3 1910.8 116.1 7230.9 295.1
1976 4598.8 197.1 1391.5 99.2 5990.3 220.7
1977 2277.9 120.7 771.1 51.1 3049.1 131.1
1978 3622.1 158.0 1590.4 81.7 5212.4 177.9
1979 4858.9 252.0 1522.2 70.9 6381.1 261.8
1980 2140.9 107.7 761.4 35.8 2902.3 113.5
1981 1443.0 75.3 682.8 34.0 2125.8 82.6
1982 3184.9 178.6 1458.0 86.4 4642.8 198.4
1983 3905.7 208.2 1259.2 68.7 5164.9 219.2
1984 2473.1 196.6 1766.2 90.8 4239.3 216.5
1985 4283.1 244.1 1326.9 74.0 5610.0 255.1
1986 4024.7 174.4 1734.8 74.4 5759.5 189.6
1987 2523.7 131.0 1347.8 46.8 3871.5 139.1
1988 2110.1 132.4 790.7 39.4 2900.8 138.1
1989 1692.7 89.1 1289.9 61.7 2982.7 108.4
1990 2817.3 138.3 691.2 45.9 3508.5 145.7
1991 2493.9 110.2 706.1 33.6 3200.0 115.2
1992 2783.9 141.6 825.0 30.8 3608.9 144.9
1993 2261.1 94.0 1350.6 57.1 3611.7 110.0
1994 3769.1 173.9 2215.6 88.8 5984.8 195.3
1995 3892.5 223.8 2442.9 106.8 6335.4 248.0
1996 5002.6 184.9 2479.7 135.3 7482.2 229.1
1997 5061.0 180.3 2397.2 94.4 7458.2 203.5
1998 2521.7 133.8 2065.3 89.2 4586.9 160.8
1999 3862.0 157.2 2842.3 256.8 6704.3 301.1
2000 2422.2 96.1 1524.5 99.9 3946.9 138.6
2001 2747.2 115.6 1893.2 91.5 4640.4 147.4
a No comparable survey data available for the northcentral U.S. during 1961-73.
42
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates (in thousands) for total ducks a and mallards or states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys.
British Columbia b California Colorado Michigan Minnesota Nebraska
Year
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
1955 c 101.5 32.0
1956 94.9 25.8
1957 154.8 26.8
1958 176.4 28.1
1959 99.7 12.1
1960 51.1 32.4 143.6 21.6
1961 58.7 32.4 141.8 43.3
1962 72.7 59.4 68.9 35.8
1963 78.0 62.1 114.9 37.4
1964 110.8 64.0 124.8 66.8
1965 111.9 60.2 52.9 20.8
1966 100.8 57.8 118.8 36.0
1967 122.2 69.7 96.2 27.6
1968 145.4 73.3 368.5 83.7 96.5 24.1
1969 138.1 57.5 345.3 88.8 100.6 26.7
1970 114.8 46.5 343.8 113.9 112.4 24.5
1971 121.4 48.3 286.9 78.5 96.0 22.3
1972 94.6 45.0 237.6 62.2 91.7 15.2
1973 112.3 45.2 415.6 99.8 85.5 19.0
1974 129.0 56.9 332.8 72.8 67.4 19.5
1975 156.7 38.2 503.3 175.8 62.6 14.8
1976 142.0 34.6 759.4 117.8 87.2 20.1
1977 536.6 134.2 152.4 24.1
1978 145.1 42.6 511.3 146.8 126.0 29.0
1979 103.2 30.9 901.4 158.7 143.8 33.6
1980 110.7 32.0 740.7 172.0 133.4 37.3
1981 188.4 36.4 515.2 154.8 66.2 19.4
1982 70.2 30.1 558.4 120.5 73.2 22.3
1983 130.6 44.2 394.2 155.8 141.6 32.2
1984 109.9 39.3 563.8 188.1 154.1 36.1
1985 580.3 216.9 75.4 28.4
1986 105.0 42.0 537.5 233.6 69.5 15.1
1987 125.4 62.0 614.9 192.3 120.5 41.7
1988 6.0 0.6 123.1 63.4 752.8 271.7 126.5 27.8
1989 5.5 0.5 122.9 48.2 1021.6 273.0 136.7 18.7
1990 5.9 0.6 131.9 56.5 886.8 232.1 81.4 14.7
1991 7.4 0.7 124.1 49.8 868.2 225.0 126.3 26.0
1992 7.7 0.7 497.4 375.8 101.3 46.6 822.8 360.9 1127.3 360.9 63.4 24.4
1993 7.1 0.6 666.7 359.0 145.6 68.7 667.8 386.5 875.9 305.8 92.8 23.8
1994 7.8 0.6 483.2 311.7 141.3 68.9 698.0 399.9 1320.1 426.5 118.9 17.5
1995 8.7 0.9 589.7 368.5 123.5 54.5 718.7 515.3 912.2 319.4 142.9 42.0
1996 8.3 0.6 795.8 535.6 142.8 60.1 643.0 338.8 1062.4 314.8 132.3 38.9
1997 8.1 0.6 824.3 514.9 107.5 51.9 779.4 445.8 953.0 407.4 128.3 26.1
1998 9.2 1.1 686.3 360.5 89.1 44.8 945.5 445.3 739.6 368.5 155.7 43.4
1999 8.3 0.8 824.6 534.5 101.0 50.2 649.5 419.5 716.5 316.4 251.2d 81.1
2000 7.8 0.6 625.4 443.4 745.5 345.4 815.3 318.1 178.8 54.3
2001 7.4 0.6 477.7 365.4 26.5d 11.8 539.7 294.8 761.3 320.6 225.3 69.2
a Species composition for the total duck estimate varies by region.
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing areas of the province.
c Blanks denote that the survey was not conducted, results were not available, or survey methods changed.
d First year of survey after major changes in survey methodology. Hence, results from earlier years are not comprable.
43
Appendix E. Continued.
Nevada Northeastern USe Oregon Washington Wisconsin Wyoming
Year
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 14.2 2.1
1960 14.1 2.1
1961 13.5 2.0
1962 13.8 1.7
1963 23.8 2.2
1964 23.5 3.0
1965 29.3 3.5
1966 25.7 3.4
1967 11.4 1.5 246.0
1968 10.5 1.2 333.0
1969 18.2 1.4 265.0
1970 19.6 1.5 382.0 101.0
1971 18.3 1.1 365.0 107.0
1972 19.0 0.9 278.0 90.0
1973 20.7 0.7 326.5 94.9 293.0 115.0
1974 17.1 0.7 320.4 97.5 318.0 122.0
1975 14.5 0.6 414.2 110.7 283.0 65.0
1976 13.6 0.6 279.4 73.6 276.0 69.0
1977 16.5 1.0 231.8 59.4 305.0 71.0
1978 11.1 0.6 240.8 79.5 323.0 77.0
1979 12.8 0.6 98.6 32.1 322.6 95.2 310.0 72.0
1980 16.6 0.9 113.7 34.1 284.3 137.7 306.0 103.0
1981 26.9 1.6 148.3 41.8 464.4 116.0 307.0 79.0
1982 21.0 1.1 146.4 49.8 233.6 95.0 299.0 67.0
1983 24.3 1.5 149.5 47.6 235.0 111.8 306.0 103.0
1984 24.0 1.4 196.3 59.3 249.4 95.4 585.0 114.0
1985 24.9 1.5 216.2 63.1 262.9 95.1 288.0 64.0
1986 26.4 1.3 203.8 60.8 332.1 158.8 356.0 73.0
1987 33.4 1.5 183.6 58.3 369.7 137.9 340.0 80.0
1988 31.7 1.3 241.8 67.2 275.0 129.4 408.0 98.0
1989 18.8 1.3 1144.8 589.9 162.3 49.8 397.6 160.0 266.0 85.0
1990 22.2 1.3 1042.3 665.1 168.9 56.9 394.6 154.7 382.0 88.0
1991 14.6 1.4 1849.2 779.2 140.8 43.7 415.5 162.9 330.0 74.0
1992 12.4 0.9 1090.2 562.2 116.3 41.0 538.2 256.1 313.0 98.0
1993 14.1 1.2 1198.4 683.1 149.8 55.0 346.0 171.2 196.0 77.0
1994 19.2 1.4 1348.1 853.1 391.3 82.8 123.9 52.7 525.1 276.6 353.6 89.6
1995 17.9 1.0 1441.2 862.8 282.2 63.6 147.3 58.9 572.2 217.5 494.9 104.4
1996 26.4 1.7 1432.3 848.5 417.4 101.1 163.3 61.6 677.3 292.1 589.0 99.9
1997 25.3 2.5 1404.9 795.1 472.4 113.8 172.8 67.0 381.3 172.9 617.0 125.1
1998 27.9 2.1 1443.8 775.1 425.1 123.5 185.3 79.0 427.5 165.9 824.1 131.4
1999 29.9 2.3 1520.8 879.7 593.5 121.9 200.2 86.2 434.4 221.6 740.8 124.8
2000 26.1 2.1 1925.8 757.8 143.6 47.7 769.8 367.5 f
2001 22.2 2.0 164.8 62.6 542.8 164.3
e Includes all or portions of Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia.
f No longer conducting breeding waterfowl surveys.
44
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors (in thousands) for 10 species of ducks from
the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, 75-77).
Mallard Gadwall American wigeon Green-winged teal Blue-winged teal
Year Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
SˆE
1955 8777.3 457.1 651.5 149.5 3216.8 297.8 1807.2 291.5 5305.2 567.6
1956 10452.7 461.8 772.6 142.4 3145.0 227.8 1525.3 236.2 4997.6 527.6
1957 9296.9 443.5 666.8 148.2 2919.8 291.5 1102.9 161.2 4299.5 467.3
1958 11234.2 555.6 502.0 89.6 2551.7 177.9 1347.4 212.2 5456.6 483.7
1959 9024.3 466.6 590.0 72.7 3787.7 339.2 2653.4 459.3 5099.3 332.7
1960 7371.7 354.1 784.1 68.4 2987.6 407.0 1426.9 311.0 4293.0 294.3
1961 7330.0 510.5 654.8 77.5 3048.3 319.9 1729.3 251.5 3655.3 298.7
1962 5535.9 426.9 905.1 87.0 1958.7 145.4 722.9 117.6 3011.1 209.8
1963 6748.8 326.8 1055.3 89.5 1830.8 169.9 1242.3 226.9 3723.6 323.0
1964 6063.9 385.3 873.4 73.7 2589.6 259.7 1561.3 244.7 4020.6 320.4
1965 5131.7 274.8 1260.3 114.8 2301.1 189.4 1282.0 151.0 3594.5 270.4
1966 6731.9 311.4 1680.4 132.4 2318.4 139.2 1617.3 173.6 3733.2 233.6
1967 7509.5 338.2 1384.6 97.8 2325.5 136.2 1593.7 165.7 4491.5 305.7
1968 7089.2 340.8 1949.0 213.9 2298.6 156.1 1430.9 146.6 3462.5 389.1
1969 7531.6 280.2 1573.4 100.2 2941.4 168.6 1491.0 103.5 4138.6 239.5
1970 9985.9 617.2 1608.1 123.5 3469.9 318.5 2182.5 137.7 4861.8 372.3
1971 9416.4 459.5 1605.6 123.0 3272.9 186.2 1889.3 132.9 4610.2 322.8
1972 9265.5 363.9 1622.9 120.1 3200.1 194.1 1948.2 185.8 4278.5 230.5
1973 8079.2 377.5 1245.6 90.3 2877.9 197.4 1949.2 131.9 3332.5 220.3
1974 6880.2 351.8 1592.4 128.2 2672.0 159.3 1864.5 131.2 4976.2 394.6
1975 7726.9 344.1 1643.9 109.0 2778.3 192.0 1664.8 148.1 5885.4 337.4
1976 7933.6 337.4 1244.8 85.7 2505.2 152.7 1547.5 134.0 4744.7 294.5
1977 7397.1 381.8 1299.0 126.4 2575.1 185.9 1285.8 87.9 4462.8 328.4
1978 7425.0 307.0 1558.0 92.2 3282.4 208.0 2174.2 219.1 4498.6 293.3
1979 7883.4 327.0 1757.9 121.0 3106.5 198.2 2071.7 198.5 4875.9 297.6
1980 7706.5 307.2 1392.9 98.8 3595.5 213.2 2049.9 140.7 4895.1 295.6
1981 6409.7 308.4 1395.4 120.0 2946.0 173.0 1910.5 141.7 3720.6 242.1
1982 6408.5 302.2 1633.8 126.2 2458.7 167.3 1535.7 140.2 3657.6 203.7
1983 6456.0 286.9 1519.2 144.3 2636.2 181.4 1875.0 148.0 3366.5 197.2
1984 5415.3 258.4 1515.0 125.0 3002.2 174.2 1408.2 91.5 3979.3 267.6
1985 4960.9 234.7 1303.0 98.2 2050.7 143.7 1475.4 100.3 3502.4 246.3
1986 6124.2 241.6 1547.1 107.5 1736.5 109.9 1674.9 136.1 4478.8 237.1
1987 5789.8 217.9 1305.6 97.1 2012.5 134.3 2006.2 180.4 3528.7 220.2
1988 6369.3 310.3 1349.9 121.1 2211.1 139.1 2060.8 188.3 4011.1 290.4
1989 5645.4 244.1 1414.6 106.6 1972.9 106.0 1841.7 166.4 3125.3 229.8
1990 5452.4 238.6 1672.1 135.8 1860.1 108.3 1789.5 172.7 2776.4 178.7
1991 5444.6 205.6 1583.7 111.8 2254.0 139.5 1557.8 111.3 3763.7 270.8
1992 5976.1 241.0 2032.8 143.4 2208.4 131.9 1773.1 123.7 4333.1 263.2
1993 5708.3 208.9 1755.2 107.9 2053.0 109.3 1694.5 112.7 3192.9 205.6
1994 6980.1 282.8 2318.3 145.2 2382.2 130.3 2108.4 152.2 4616.2 259.2
1995 8269.4 287.5 2835.7 187.5 2614.5 136.3 2300.6 140.3 5140.0 253.3
1996 7941.3 262.9 2984.0 152.5 2271.7 125.4 2499.5 153.4 6407.4 353.9
1997 9939.7 308.5 3897.2 264.9 3117.6 161.6 2506.6 142.5 6124.3 330.7
1998 9640.4 301.6 3742.2 205.6 2857.7 145.3 2087.3 138.9 6398.8 332.3
1999 10805.7 344.5 3235.5 163.8 2920.1 185.5 2631.0 174.6 7149.5 364.5
2000 9470.2 290.2 3158.4 200.7 2733.1 138.8 3193.5 200.1 7431.4 425.0
2001 7904.0 226.9 2679.2 136.1 2493.5 149.6 2508.7 156.4 5757.0 288.8
45
Appendix F. Continued.
Northern shoveler North