OK I Lied, more on Select/KU…Why we DON’T want more than a penny a page…

I know, I know. But I can’t stop thinking about it. It is my livelihood after all. Warning: I failed Algebra in HS and never took any more math, so this may all be BS, but I think I have a handle on the economics…

If Amazon were to pay us *more* than a penny a page? It could be the worst thing that ever happened. Think about it. Let’s say the rate is revealed on August 15 to be 2 cents a page for July. You’ve got a 300 page book. Suddenly, you’re getting $3-4 a borrow, let’s say, averaging out finishes with Did Not Finishes. More than you’re getting for a sale at a $3.99 list price! So what happens then?

It’s a gold rush! Everyone races to get into, or back into, KU with their novels to take advantage. Then what?

Well…either the boat gets swamped because it’s overloaded with more titles splitting the pot, and the per page rate tumbles, or…

Amazon keeps the rate high, adding more money into the pot each month. We’re all Augustus Gloops, stuffing ourselves with all the chocolate we can eat, so grateful to Mr. Wonka for letting us into his factory!

Why would they do that? Well, it’s common knowledge that Amazon’s goal is to be One Site To Rule Them All. What better way to put a huge number of other ebook retailers out of business, than to lure all the authors into an Amazon-exclusive deal that pays out the wazoo?

And how long would that last? I’d say about 12 months. That would be enough time for the other merchants to exhaust their cash on hand, their line of credit, and the last vestiges of pure desperate hope that something will come along at the last minute to rescue them.

Then Amazon drops the rate to a penny or less and guess what? You’re SOL because you can’t go anywhere else to sell your books because all the other ebook retailers are kaput.

Conspiracy theory? Or just economics? Yeah. More than a penny per page would be great for Amazon, long term, and terrible for us…