Everything All the Time: Keys for the Warriors to Beat the Clippers

I don’t think the Warriors will win their first round series against the Clippers. I’m guessing LA prevails in six games, maybe five. I’d love nothing more than to be completely wrong. But in Andrew Bogut’s absence, the Warriors need to do a bunch of contradictory things to have a shot at defeating their southern rivals. Can Mark Jackson and his team find that perfect balance of strength, speed, focus and aggression necessary for the win? Although I won’t rule anything out so long as Stephen Curry is on the floor, its going to be tough.

Doc Rivers’ Clippers are constructed as a classic inside/outside team. One minute, you’re in Lob City, the next you’re watching threes rain down from their perimeter players. The same dynamic plays out on defense, with Chris Paul blitzing opponent’s ball handlers and DeAndre Jordan defending the rim. To knock the Clippers out of their comfort zone, the Warriors will need to be good in a lot of ways. With Bogut out and the offense sputtering off and on all season, I’m not sure they can be everything all the time.

Once you strip away all the pre-series trash talking — which I love, by the way — I see three key areas where the Warriors will need to excel.

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Control the boards — In the two Warriors wins over the Clippers this season, Golden State was +15 on rebounds. In the Warriors’ two losses, they were -12. That massive swing makes sense on two levels. While Griffin and Jordan have expanded their games, they’re still most dangerous in offensive rebound/put-back situations. When they have opportunities for those easy points, the Clippers are likely to thrive. But beyond the mere points, the Clippers’ entire sense of momentum and swagger seems to feed off those scrapping-in-the-pain rebound opportunities. The Clippers want to be the aggressors in the series, and the easiest way for them to assert their dominance will be to push around the Bogut-less Warriors. Will learn a lot about not just the Xs and Os strategy of the series, but also its general tone, by how the Warriors manage to hold their ground in the paint. David Lee, Jermaine O’Neal, Marreese Speights and Draymond Green obviously will be key here, but Mark Jackson will need his entire team — Iguodala, Thompson and Barnes, in particular — to help gang rebound when they’re on the court.

The Warriors can go big to help clean the glass, but the strategy comes with two big downsides that play into other Clipper strengths.

Defend the arc — The Clippers shoot 38.3% from behind the arc in wins this season. In losses, that number plummets to 27.9%. (The Warriors, for comparison, are a relatively consistent 39.5% in wins, 35.4% in losses.) The Clippers have a long list of big and small players capable of hitting threes — Paul, Redick, Crawford, Green, Granger, Dudley. If the Warriors go big, they run a higher risk of leaving these players wide open on the perimeter. I have complete confidence in Thompson and Iguodala shutting them down, but if Lee, Speights or O’Neal end up on them in switch situations, the Warriors are in deep trouble. The solution for the Warriors is to go small — with Green or Barnes at 4 — to ensure that the defense can stretch out to the perimeter no matter what looks the Clippers throw at the Warriors. Green may be the perfect blend of interior strength and perimeter coverage, but he’s also likely to be racking up fouls (not to mention taking a beating), so the Warriors will need other alternatives. Bogut’s absence here is huge — his ability to defend the entire paint with four smalls around him was key to the Warriors’ playoff success last year.

Value possessions — The Warriors’ turnover differential was +1 in wins over the Clippers this season and -4 in losses. If you break the number down a bit more, Curry’s role becomes key. He had a horrific 11 turnovers in the first loss and 4 in the second. For the wins, he had a manageable 2 and 3. Rivers already has been highlighting the Clippers’ defense on Curry as a focus heading into the series. They’ll run multiple men at him, try to force turnovers or, at the least, get the ball out of his hands. How Curry handles the pressure will be key to the Warriors’ chances. Jackson could help ease Curry’s load by going small and playing Steve Blake next to him — much as he did with Jarrett Jack in last year’s playoffs — but then you run the risk of taking Curry out of the offense all together (and getting clobbered on the glass). But if the Warriors go big, it threatens the ball movement that has been the lifeblood of their best offensive runs this season. Too many post-ups or isolations spell almost certain doom for this team. The Warriors will need to find a way to keep the ball flowing freely — to Thompson and Iguodala on the perimeter, to Barnes and Lee slashing to the basket. Tempo and early offense will be key, but simply playing fast won’t be enough. The Warriors have to elevate their overall attention to detail and care with the ball to have a chance against what should be physical, aggressive Clippers defense.

Ultimately, I expect this series to be equally fun and frustrating. Fun because of the genuine dislike between these two teams — rare in the world of modern American sports — but frustrating because of how much more flexibility the Warriors would have with a healthy Andrew Bogut. This trip to the playoffs is a milestone for the Warriors. Just making it is no longer good enough. They shouldn’t be happy just to be here. Sadly, the team’s rightfully elevated expectations are unlikely to be met.

Adam Lauridsen

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bad? maybe. Both teams had the jitters down the stretch but surprisingly (not) the Ws stood fall. This is what they do.

http://www.alancaplan.com Alan C

Not initially mine, but the last month he seems to have shifted into a higher gear, energy-wise. It felt that way today as well — some nice, but controlled aggression.

earl monroe

I yi yiyi- you got fans bro

SJ Jim

I had the same reaction to the ball-squeezing down the stretch. I held my breath with each telegraphed lob pass in to a post-up iso. I know it worked out, but our lead dissipated.

One thing I always find strange is the apparent subjective nature of the lane violation calls on FT’s (and of course, it becomes a more relevant concern when you have Jermaine “hitch” O’Neal on your roster). Maybe THE most inconsistently-called infraction in basketball. How in the world did they let Reddick get away with joining JO on the line? Oh we’ll, I still get a laugh out of JO’s ability to get extra attempts. :o)

earl monroe

Lots of pressure was put on Curry, as I watched other games, no one was putting pressure point guards the way the Clippers did Curry, Jeff Teague was shredding thee Pacers because they played him straight up, Curry never gets the pleasure of single coverage, the pressure caused Curry to turn the ball over a few times, it caused him to revert to his one handed hook passes, hopefully he will clean this up next game. But fully understandable, having two people running at you and sometimes three is tough.

earl monroe

BTW, completely shocked that Thompson made the decision to go to Barnes on the break instead of Curry, kudos to Barnes for hitting that key 3.

earl monroe

The Pacers issues coincide with the arrival of Bynum, overuse of players, and their decision to make Lance Stephenson more of a featured player on offense, it created chemistry issues with Hibbert, Hibbert not touching the ball on many possessions is a bad idea. Cutting down on touches to George? not good either.
Just kidding about the Bynum arrival, or could there be something to that?

Tired

I think it all evened out. There were so many strange calls. BUt you can call fouls on most every play, if you want to. I was glad they called that charging call on BG early in the game when he just lowered his shoulder and went for the basket. it was interesting to hear Van Gundy trying to justify that. van Gundy spent a number of minutes trying to explain why he wants the stars to get special treatment because that is who the people go to see. he sees that particular move as one that should be allowed because “that is who Griffin is.” What an idiot.

Tired

He is actually learning the game now. Before he was just doing what he felt lke. I think the time he spent on the bench got his attention.

Tired

Considering that CP can pretty much defend Curry by himself it certainly was extreme pressure. But Curry knows this and he actually draws the pressure to see who is open. i agree that his passing techniques can leave something to be desired, especially against the good teams, but he has been getting better lately, but mostly agains the bad teams.

SJ Jim

I usually enjoy JVG, but he said several dumb things today.

Tired

Why don’t you just grow up. Then we might like you.

Tired

Because he is trying to intimidate people and get on the All Pro team. His juvenile fans love it and it is good for photo ops and T-shirts.
he is a putz.

Tired

I do too. I was surprised he went on and on about that. pretty darn lame. laughable, really.

SJ Jim

Flop of the game goes to Reddick, imo. He didn’t get the call, but as Curry ran past him on a three attempt, he went down like he was clotheslined by Jack Tatum.

SJ Jim

Yeah, the repeated “I want to see the stars play” thing was asinine. They have to play within the rules, Jeff.

Tired

Bynum has been a cancer everywhere he has gone. Truly one of THE most overrated and overpaid players n NBA history.
Sometimes when you start to tinker with a really good team, you untune the engine.

coltraning

then there is the third view, coaching really does not matter nearly as much as we might think in game. Doc Rivers did not make Collison dribble the ball out of bounds, nor make Paul brick 2 FTs, and Jackson did not make Klay decide he could beat Chris Paul 1 on 1, nor make the Ws brick numerous FTs at the end. Ultimately, the pro game reminds me very much of modern jazz, and on the band stand and on the court, it is really on the players…that said, it did appear to be a mistake to take Big Baby out and reinsert jordan. The Clips basically play 4 on 5 on offense when that happens.

Thurston Hunger

It’s funny pearl, my wife was hoping for the same but I was calling for the ball to go back to Barnes the whole way. Just had a feeling after Harrison had made that tremendous block that gave him an instant shot of confidence that was going to help him nail the wide open look.

coltraning

I agree…he seems to be playing much smarter than at the beginning of the year. Whoever is guiding him is doing a good job and props to Speights for being willing to adjust well into his career.

Thurston Hunger

From Lee’s mouth to God’s ears to MJax bible-study and back into the game plan for all subsequent play-off games.

As the Clips focus on Steph aka the W’s “snake’s head” with quick the W’s solid spacing, some cutting and more of that passing…it’s 4-on-3 in the half court!

Thurston Hunger

Yeah but 7 TO’s….he can and will do better. I also wouldn’t mind some first half action with Steph and Crawford as EE suggested.

coltraning

Yeah, I stopped keeping track, but at one point in the season, the Ws were 20-2 when Curry scored 19 or less. Absurd #. Not because he is not an amazing scorer, but because of how open others get when he draws attention. I could not agree more when you say “We don’t need him to score 40 or even 30.” In fact, this season Ws were 39-20 when he DIDN’T score as much as 30, 12-11 when he scored 30 or more, 1-2 when he scored 40 or more…underscores your point (guard). The more the rest of the team is involved, considering he is the game’s best decoy, the better.

coltraning

I thought it was the worst-reffed game I’ve seen this year, with awful calls on both sides and, what, 51 fouls. More than a foul a minute makes the game practically unwatchable…

coltraning

Nice post, though I disagree on Curry and minutes. Every time Crawford is on the court the velcro-handed meball destroys any offensive rhythm the team has, so I understand why he only gets 1st 1/2 action. It is the playoffs, Steph wants to be out there, and I have no problem at all with his minutes.

I agree Dre will be much more of a factor in game 2…

monsta

Of course! This team rocks
Not taking anything away from them

It was noticeable in the second half that the Clippers were open and missed shots. I think the W defense can get a lot better than this game — and I do worry that the Clippers would convert a lot more next game if you give them the same kind of room.

monsta

If the calls are made early and consistently, players get the message. In this case, they got the message that anything goes — sometimes.

coltraning

whatever the reason, the decline of the Pacers can be traced to the granger trade,Bynum, and the Ws beating them 98-96 in Indy. Before that game, Indy was on a 5 game win streak and had a 46-13 record, best in the league. Starting with the loss to the Ws, they have gone 10-14…it’s our fault!

Camelot

New post. “”BTW”

I yi yiyi

I just love my team

I yi yiyi

Hi Girl, yeah go Draymond

I yi yiyi

nahhhhhh

Son of Ahmed

Tired, there is a little self-preservation at work here.

rioderek

Yeah after a terrible 1st half, Lee did a great job redeeming himself in the 2nd half. EVERYBODY contributed and that was good and needed. Great confidence boost for all including us the fans.

rioderek

Klay has become a super defender. The guy is dedicated to his craft. He’s a multi-tooled baller. He can now do it all. Shoot, drive and defend at an elite level..

rioderek

As a team the Clippers do alot of whining, even when the infraction is obvious. Griffen dumbs water on the guy in the front row after fouling out and makes no effort to apologize. Clips are easy to dislike.

jsl165

Give him a little time; Curry figures things out pretty quickly. And he did seem to have a ton of hockey assists today, already.

jsl165

Too old now. But not by that much.

jsl165

Try making sense.

jsl165

Dumb and Dumber. At the same time. Bonus points for Bozo!

earl monroe

The block show the athleticism of Barnes but boy can he be exasperating at times, he made some key plays including a pass out of the iso post to Lee cutting

Son of Ahmed

Sequence of the game, right there.

Son of Ahmed

Steph runs at a very high motor, Col. He needs to get scheduled breaks in the early 4th quarter. Been watching him for a long time, and when he gets short respites during the game, he is stronger at the end.