Our spirits started off sky-high, when the Cubs followed up a walk-off win on Thursday night with an utter blowout on Friday, but quickly turned south after two late-inning meltdowns ended the Cubs’ 11-game winning streak and split the series.

Still, the Cubs definitely did more damage to the Cardinals’ chances of taking the division then they did to their own chances of winning it.

Since our last off-day check-in, the Cubs have gone 7-2 against the Athletics, Angels, and Cardinals. With their series split against the Cardinals, the Cubs still haven’t lost a series since the All-Star Break, which is all anyone can ask for. They also posted an 11-game winning streak, which was their best since a 12-gamer in 2001. Check out the NL Central standings as of the start of play today:

Chicago Cubs: 73-43 (.629)

St. Louis Cardinals: 62-56 (.525)

Pittsburgh Pirates: 59-56 (.513)

Milwaukee Brewers: 52-64 (.448)

Cincinnati Reds: 48-68 (.379)

The Cubs now have a 12.0 game lead over the second place Cardinals (13 in the loss column) and a 13.5 game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates. That’s two and half (over the Cardinals) and one and half (over the Pirates) games better than our last check in … in just 9 games! Not bad.

The Cubs’ winning percentage today (.629), is much better than last time (.617) and significantly better than the time before that (.606). No other team has reached 70 wins yet and none has a winning percentage above .600. The Cubs are on pace to win about 102 games.

Since August 4, the Cubs’ run differential has – once again –increased by quite a lot, from +171 to +194. It remains the best differential in all of baseball by a healthy margin. Here are the rest of the top five run differentials, so you can put that in perspective:

Chicago Cubs: +194

Washington Nationals: +142

Cleveland Indians +105

Boston Red Sox: +103

Toronto Blue Jays +88

The Cubs’ run differential is now a ridiculous 52 runs better than the second place Nationals, and over 100 runs better than fifth place Blue Jays. For the second straight check-in, the St. Louis Cardinals have dropped considerably (now down to +64). The Cubs have continued to allow the fewest runs per game (3.13) of any team in baseball, but have dropped to fourth with 5.08 runs scored per game – although, that’s slightly better than their mark last time.

The Cubs’ expected record is either three or five games better than reality by two separate measures:

The Pythagorean and BaseRuns records are a way to measure how many games a team should have won over a given stretch based on the number of runs score and allowed (Pythagorean) and other underlying metrics (BaseRuns). Obviously, teams frequently under and over-perform these numbers, but they are usually a pretty good indication of how well a team may do going forward. The Cubs, according to those to numbers, should have probably won about 3-5 more games than they have.

Yes, the Cubs still have the best record in baseball, but by three separate accounts, it could and should have been way, way better (arguably meaning better luck is on the way (which could come in the form of an even better winning percentage, or simply some good luck wins that otherwise would have been losses, helping keep the Cubs where they are)). According to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs will win 27 more games this season, which would put them right at 100 wins – two better than the last time we checked-in and four better than the time before that.

So, what does it mean for the playoffs and beyond? Let’s check back in on that at FanGraphs.

After winning eleven games in a row, the Cubs are now at a 100.0% chance of reaching the playoffs. We already discussed the implications of this here, and I don’t have much more to add. What can you say? These will go up and down all year, but you can’t be too upset with an 19.6% chance of winning the World Series – six percentage points higher than the next best team (Nationals).

The Cubs odds of reaching the playoffs as close to a certainty as any statistician would reasonably suggest. If there exists a scenario where the Cubs do not reach the playoffs, it will be due to an absolutely historic implosion on a level we may never have seen.

Now check out some of their statistics via FanGraphs, with their league ranking and relative positioning since last time in parenthesis:

Chicago Cubs Offensive Statistics

Walk Rate: 10.5% (Today: 1st – Previously: 1st)

Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Today: 19th – Previously: 19th)

ISO: .174 (Today: 10th – Previously: 13th)

OBP: .345 (Today: 2nd – Previously: 2nd)

SLG: .429 (Today: 12th – Previously: 12th)

wOBA: .334 (Today: 3rd – Previously: 3rd)

wRC+: 106 (Today: 4th – Previously: 4th)

Chicago Cubs Pitching Statistics

ERA: 3.15 (Today: 1st – Previously: 1st)

FIP: 3.80 (Today: 5th – Previously: 6th)

xFIP: 3.77 (Today: 6th – Previously: 6th)

K-Rate: 24.0% (Today: 3rd – Previously: 3rd)

Walk Rate: 8.2% (Today: 15th – Previously: 19th)

K/BB: 2.94 (Today: 9th – Previously: 12th)

AVG (against): .211 (Today: 1st – Previously: 1st)

WHIP: 1.11 (Today: 1st – Previously: T-1st)

Well, you can’t say the Cubs didn’t earn their eleven-game win streak. They have either improved or held steady in every single statistic listed above. They’re the leaders in four categories are top five in nine categories, and area a top ten team by 12 of the 15 most important categories on offense and defense. That’s hard to beat.

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