Texas Cold in Perspective

There’s cold, and then there’s cold. Down here in Texas, lots of thin-skinned folks are complaining about the cold wave, while some other parts of the country have been experiencing seriously cold weather.

copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Earlier I wrote about the two intense December cold waves, in 1983 and 1989. The 1989 cold wave was cold enough to set all-time cold temperature records across much of the state, from San Angelo to Victoria. That’s enough to put it among the five strongest cold waves all-time in Texas.

The granddaddy of cold waves was in February 1899. Of Texas stations that have been in operation from 1899 to the present day, about half of them have their all-time low temperature records in February 1899. The records range from -16°F in Amarillo to 8°F in Galveston to 12°F in Brownsville. Reportedly, most of Galveston Bay froze over during that cold wave.

Next on the cold wave list is January 1930. This cold wave established all-time records from Childress to Houston. In Houston, the minimum temperature on January 18, 1930 was 5°F, just edging out the 6°F record set on February 12, 1899 and tied on February 13, 1899. Also on January 18, 1930, Dallas dropped to -3°F, breaking the record of -1°F set the previous day.

The other two top-five Texas cold waves came along in the 1940s. At both Wichita Falls and Brenham, the temperature on January 4, 1947 dropped to -12°F, four degrees colder than any temperature registered at either station before or since. Just over two years later, Central Texas had its coldest day ever, as January 31, 1949 established the all-time records at Waco (-5°F), Austin (-2°F), and San Antonio (0°F).

Compared to those events, the latest cold weather is nothing. Actually, compared to those events, any cold weather since the end of 1989 is nothing. In Austin, the coldest it’s gotten since 1989 is 15°F. In Dallas, 10°F. In Brownsville, 28°F. In Lubbock, 2°F, compared to an all-time record of -17°F. On average across the state, the coldest temperature since 1989 is 14°F warmer than the coldest temperature up to 1989.

Why the sudden change to milder weather? The biggest reason is probably dumb luck. Extreme cold weather events happen erratically, and you’ll occasionally go through a stretch without any. We’ve never been through such a long period before, but then, if this had happened before, I wouldn’t be writing about it.

Urbanization has undoubtedly contributed too. All of these comparisons are at urban stations. But, I just took a quick look at a long-term station out in the middle of nowhere, and its coldest temperature since 1989 is 11°F warmer than the coldest temperature up to 1989.

Global warming has raised temperatures generally, but so far that’s just 1°F or 2°F also.

Lastly, global warming may have affected weather patterns in such a way as to make extreme cold episodes much less likely. But I don’t know of any particular reason for this; some are arguing that global warming is making extreme cold episodes more likely. I don’t believe either one, at least not while the evidence is so weak or nonexistent.

In the summer in Arizona, when people complain about the heat, the standard response is, “But it’s a dry heat.” Here in Texas, with this cold snap, remember: it’s a warm cold.

3 Responses

In the geological scale of things, this up-and-down of hot and/or cold weather in the last hundred years is insignificant. We are still coming out of an ice age. Anyway, in Houston, the only reliable weather forecast is sticking your head outside!

We came out of the ice age (technically, the last “glacial period”) several thousand years ago, when the last bit of the North American ice sheet melted. Since then, we’ve been marking time waiting for the next glacial period to start.