From apology to regional cooperation

The civil war in Syria as well as potential the rise of radical Islamists in the country constitute a major national security threat for Turkey on its southern border and for Israel on its northern border.

By OZGUR ERKAN

March 24, 2013 23:46

4 minute read.

Turkish flag 311 (R).
(photo credit: Osman Orsal / Reuters)

Following the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations after the Mavi Marmara
flotilla incident in May 2010, the long-awaited Israeli apology finally came,
shortly before President Barack Obama was about to complete his official trip to
Israel. While the apology was reported as the last-minute major event of the day
in the Turkish press, both Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reportedly found Israel’s apology
satisfactory.

The apology is without question an important step for the
rapprochement between Turkey and Israel. However, both sides need to move
forward and engage in a regional cooperation, given the common security threats
both Israel and Turkey face from Syria and Iran, and given the potential
benefits to both countries from the natural gas project in the
Mediterranean.

In a nutshell, the militaries of Israel and Turkey should
start working together to face the national security threats in the region, a
type of cooperation which was also the basis of the golden age of bilateral
relations between the two countries in the 1990s. This time, however,
cooperation should exceed the military dimension and include new parameters such
as the natural gas project in the Mediterranean and a future triangular alliance
with Azerbaijan.

The most imminent threat both countries currently face
is Syria. The civil war in Syria as well as potential the rise of radical
Islamists in the country constitute a major national security threat for Turkey
on its southern border and for Israel on its northern border. To deal with this
threat, the two countries need to participate in joint military training and
share intelligence on both the Assad regime and the radical Islamists, regarding
military capabilities and (potential) use of chemical weapons.

Such
military cooperation, especially in terms of intelligence, can reduce the threat
of potential attacks, to which both countries are prone at the moment. Take for
example the recent attack from the Syrian side on Turkey in February 2013, where
a explosives-laden vehicle was detonated at the Turkish-Syrian, killing 14
civilians, including Turkish citizens.

Similarly, the Golan Heights have
been subjected to mortar shelling from the Syrian side since November
2012.

Furthermore, if a NATO intervention takes place in Syria, similar
to the Libya intervention of 2011, Turkey will be the key NATO ally in this
operation, and Israel will be the critical Western ally in the region supporting
this operation from outside. Put differently, an efficient American and Western
hard-power approach to Syria will work more efficiently once the two best US
allies in the region are fully cooperating.

ANOTHER REGIONAL threat to
both countries is Iran. While the threat to Israel posed by the Iranian
president is crystal clear, Turkey was implicitly threatened by Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei in recent months; Khamenei asserted that Turkey would pay a high price
for emplacing NATO Patriot missile batteries.

At the same time, both
countries enjoy a very close alliance with Azerbaijan, which is in Iran’s back
yard. The optimal step Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel could take against the
Iranian threat would be to establish a “strategic triangle” and cooperate in
terms of joint military training and military intelligence sharing.

This
step would also integrate Israel more into NATO; Turkey is already a notable
NATO member and Azerbaijan enjoys a partnership with NATO under the framework of
the Euro- Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). Moreover, such a strong
triangular alliance would also help the US work more efficiently against Iran
through the combination of trade sanctions and a potential military
response.

IN ADDITION to the security threats, Israel and Turkey can
potentially enjoy the fruits of a regional cooperation with Cyprus on the
natural gas project in the Mediterranean. Given the financial crisis Cyprus
finds itself in, it is clear that Cyprus lacks sufficient financial assets to
continue the exploitation of this promising natural gas
project.

Moreover, Israel cannot shoulder the entire financial burden on
its own. In other words, a critical third partner with major interests in the
island is needed.

Turkey could play a major role here thanks to its solid
economic growth. Such an alliance would not only deepen Turkey’s ties with
Israel, but would also be the first step toward Turkey engaging in direct,
face-to-face negotiations with Cyprus and the legitimization of the Republic of
Cyprus. Leaving the economic benefits aside, this alliance would also
significantly bolster Turkey’s negotiations for EU membership, given that its
failure to engage in direct talks with Cyprus has played a role in retarding
Turkey’s acceptance.

In a nutshell, both Turkey and Israel can hugely
benefit from a close regional alliance, given the common security threats with
Syria and Iran and the potential opportunities with Azerbaijan and Cyprus. The
main framework both sides need to use for a close alliance and regional
cooperation is a common phrase in Hebrew: “Smoch alai,” trust me.”

The
author is a graduate student at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government,
Diplomacy and Strategy.

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