NBA Finals: Perfect Matchup

I’ll say this: I like Dirk Nowitzki and truly believe that he and the Mavs back in ’06 were robbed by the refs against Miami (reminiscent of the Sonics against Barkley’s Suns in game 7 of the Western Conference Fianls in ’93… if you forgot, chew on this free throw disparity: Sonics 28-36 Suns 57-64… in other words, Phoenix made 21 more free throws than Seattle shot…). And, try as I might, I still have some affinity for the Durants. I tweeted awhile back that Durant made me pump my fist twice with his excellent play in the Memphis series. I felt guilty and more than a little pathetic doing so, but hey, I had high hopes for the guy when he arrived in Seattle. He was “ours” first as an NBA player and I’ll always claim him. I even have a soft spot for Nick Collison even though I couldn’t get over his limitations while he was in Seattle (and I now realize that it wasn’t his fault, he was counted on a little too heavily to score around the rim in traffic and, quite frankly, that’s not his game. He’s not explosive and has a propensity to get his shot blocked and miss easy layins, but if he’s not counted on doing that, as he’s not in OKC, then he’s effective as a spot up shooter from 15’ and a very capable defender). I am constantly amazed by Russell Westbrook’s athleticism and explosion. No one gets to the hole quite like he does and finishes around the rim with such efficiency (no, not even Derrick Rose). Westbrook is one of those guys who could absolutely be an All Pro NFL wide receiver or defensive back (free safety or corner). He’s simply a preposterously good athlete, but he has his shortcomings as a point guard as of today. He’s a fantastic scorer, a great rebounder, a good defender, and an average passer (both in ability and in willingness). He’ll learn. He’s only 22 and hasn’t been playing the position for awhile, but he’ll definitely learn. I’ll always be sad that this OKC team is not in Seattle because I love the way that they are constructed. Even though I’ve never been a huge James Harden fan, I’ve come around (how could I not?). I know that some people think that OKC whiffed by taking him instead of Steph Curry, but I’m not one of those people. Harden fills a role for the team that they need. He’s a crazy good defender, a highly efficient scorer, a good rebounder, and a fantastic passer. I love their team, but I don’t like the rotations that they use (Maynor plays too many minutes, Sefalosha and Ibaka play too few), but they’ll figure it out. OKC is going to be a title contender for a decade at least.

But…

My goodness, what happened to them on Wednesday was so difficult to watch (but I have to say that I felt a tinge of satisfaction). Bill Simmons tweeted that it was like watching a little league pitcher melt down and cry on the mound. That’s a pretty damn accurate way to describe what we saw happen when Dirk Dirked OKC. But another visualization is this: A kid at a spelling bee who is mowing down the competition suddenly gets stumped on a word, spells it wrong, pees down his leg and awkwardly runs off the stage. That’s what I saw out of OKC at the end of the game. It was one of the most unreal meltdowns I’d seen in a long time (shades of Portland against the Lakers when the Blazers just couldn’t hit anything).

But then Chicago collapsed even harder against Miami on Thursday night. I called game four a “now go get your effin’ shinebox” game so I guess that made Miami Billy Batts and Chicago Tommy… but then to carry that analogy to it’s logical conclusion, Miami should be sitting in the trunk of a car getting stabbed with Tommy’s Mom’s kitchen knife by, Chicago, I suppose. That’s not what I meant. I just meant that Miami treated Chicago like, “go away, Kid, ya bother me.” Chicago didn’t go away, they fought back and got a little proud of themselves and were slain at home in front of a shocked Chicago crowd.

Both OKC and Chicago were dispensed with in a “You young bucks ain’t ready yet, this here game is for GROWN folks” fashion. The games were close, but neither OKC nor Chicago could close. Riveting stuff. Both squads will be back.

Chicago was up 7 with 1:46 left in the game and ended up losing. The thing about it was you could absolutely see it coming. The four-point play by Wade and LeBron’s three… the incredibly good defense LeBron threw at Rose … look, for as much rancor that people feel toward Miami, there is no denying that the team (okay some of the team) is otherworldly talented, but not only that, the team (everyone) plays hard. Personality and hubris aside isn’t what we’re seeing out of Miami exactly what you want to see out of an NBA team? Max talent + max effort = awesome basketball. I love what I’m seeing. And I have to admit, I really like the construction of this Chicago team and thought I’d be rooting for them during this series, but I wasn’t. I was absolutely pulling for Miami. I didn’t want to, but I can’t help it. I want to see LeBron and Wade in the finals against Dallas. And you know what? I think the Heat are going to steamroll the Mavs. But I’ll get that in a minute.

Back to Chicago. I’ve been a huge Derrick Rose fan since seeing him in Memphis. I loved his explosiveness saw that he could be a beast in the NBA if only he could be aggressive. I remember watching the NCAA Tournament and wondering why he was playing so passively. He absolutely did not dominate the ball at all on that squad. He’d bring the ball up the court and then pass it to Chris Douglass Roberts or someone and then move around without the ball. He rarely took it to the hole and didn’t shoot much even though it was clear (abundantly so) that he was the best player on his team and most likely the best player on the floor. So I didn’t know if he’d be able to flip his personality and be dominant/aggressive in the NBA… well, that question has been answered to the point where he, at times, looks a little too aggressive. But, looking at their team, it’s obvious why he does what he does: there is no one else on this Bulls team who is either capable or willing to create his own shot. Luol Deng is a nice player and I like his game, but he cannot get his own shot. He doesn’t have the handles and doesn’t have the quickness to get by anyone on a consistent basis. None of the post guys have this ability either (Boozer is okay, but he’s mostly disappointing… the perfect guy for them would be Jo Noah’s teammate from Florida, Al Horford, but that ain’t happening). Chicago’s biggest issue is his over-reliance on Rose. As great as he is and as adept as he is at getting into the lane and scoring, it’s too predictable. They need another threat or the opposition will just lock him down (just like Miami did). And before you say, “Well, how many teams out there are as good defensively as Miami?” But that misses the point entirely. It doesn’t matter that Rose can eviscerate Indiana or the other non-contending teams, it only matters what he (and they) can do against the elite of the elite teams because that’s how they’ll win a title. As presently constructed (team or scheme), it’s not going to happen.

Now, on to the NBA Finals and previous statement about the steamrollability of Miami… it would be lunacy to say that Nowitzki is anything less than incredible (as an aside, can we please get the word out to everyone in the NBA who speaks to pronounce his name properly? It’s No-Vit-Ski, not No-Wit-Ski. It’s not a matter of interpretation it’s just how his name is pronounced). But isn’t it sort of clear that if Dirk is locked down or somewhat subdued, then his team has a very slim chance to win a series (not in a given game, we’ve seen what Jason Terry and Peja can do on occasion)? Miami can throw very different looks at Dirk to keep him off balance (admittedly, that’s how he works best… off balance). Udonis Haslem, Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, and even LeBron. I’m curious to see how they guard Dirk and it’s the overstatement of the playoffs to say that it will be the key to the series. I could be wrong and it’s possible that JJ Barea goes completely ape, Shawn Marion shoots (grossly) great, Kidd does what Kidd does, Terry and/or Peja go nuts… but I just see Miami taking home the trophy in six or maybe even five because of Miami’s ability to score and their unreal ability to keep teams from scoring on them.