Recent polls for the Greens

The big dip in Green support shown in the Colmar Brunton poll published on Thursday caused consternation amongst Greens, with the usual claims of it being a bogus poll, or an outlier.

Some thought that it was proven inaccurate by the Roy Morgan poll published yesterday (Friday), but they failed to notice that while published after Colmar Brunton’s poll just about all of the RM polling was done before CB.

Both those pollsters plus Reid Research have show Green dives this month. Recent polls for the Greens:

RR 15 June: 12.5%

CB 1-5 July: 11%

RM 26 Jun-9 Jul: 13.5%

CB 22-27 July: 15%

RR 20-28 July: 13%

RR 2-8 August: 8.3%

RM 31 Jul-13 Aug: 9%

CB 12-16 August: 4.3%

All three polls show a significant dip in Green support in August, at the same time as Metiria Turei’s story as a beneficiary unravelled and disunity in the party became apparent.

The CB poll this week is the only one to be done after the resignations of Turei as co-leader and the withdrawal from the list of two Green MPs. We can’t be sure whether it was an accurate snapshot of Green support this week, or if it is an outlier.

It could be rock bottom for the Greens, as James Shaw claims, they and could bounce back by the time we get another poll.

Newshub (Reid Research) may be next to publish another poll, that would be useful to get an idea of how bad things are for the Greens.

27 Comments

PDB

Some people have commended RNZ for going after both Barclay (National) and Turei (The Greens) and using this as some sort of example of how unbiased their political coverage is. But looking at it who benefited by both stories being chased?

For a change Slater is right – Turei’s demise in the end was likely to be a massive Labour-led hit. Prior to that RNZ and the MSM were mainly sympathetic to Turei’s position and it was only after the Greens went up in the polls to the detriment of Labour that RNZ received further info on Turei that ultimately saw her quit rather than have that info go into the public domain.

‘Red radio’ is alive and well even if it means throwing the Greens under the bus.

PDB

Turei’s ‘mission’ initially was not attacked by the MSM, in fact it was spun in such a way that the Greens support went up. Graham & Clendon jumping ship had nothing to do with Turei jumping – the rest of the party was still behind Turei after that occurred.

It was only when presented with questions by RNZ that Turei decided to go rather than answer them – I’ve no doubt these questions were a part of a Labour-led hit (it’s even suggested this information came from the family of an ex-Labour MP who happened to be grandmother of Turei’s daughter) to sink Turei and ultimately cannibalise their vote.

Patzcuaro

Nobody told Barclay to record one of his staff, he did that of his own bat. His mishandling of his staff lead to the Confidential monetary settlement.

Turei probably looked back on her period as a solo mother through rose tinted glasses, magnifying her struggle. When she went public to highlight the plight of beneficaries she omitted several pertinent facts which had a negative impact on her story.

Both their downfalls can be slated back to how they handled the situation once all the facts came out. Neither really showed any remorse or humility, this more than anything else lead to their resignations.

People make mistakes, it is how they handle themselves after that is important and decides their fate.

Tipene

It didn’t happen, although this story suits their ongoing political conspiracy narrative.

Human nature happened – those family members who were accused of being cruel & heartless scrooges when Turei was a “beneficiary” with a young child went “fuck you, bitch” and blabbed their brains out to the MSM, attaching a few photos to all and sundry along the way.

Labour might have been the benefactors, but they were a non-player in the downfall.

PDB

Yep – I’ve been quite clear that I’d rather National sit on the opposition benches for a term rather than go into govt with Winston/Jones. National were never going to be able to win a 5th term and the damage Winston can do in a single term could see the larger party in govt with him outcast for another 3 terms.

PDB

I personally don’t think they are under 5% but overall things won’t change for the Greens until they get rid of the MP’s that are far more socialist than environmentalist. They lost two environmentalists just recently and only one (Turei) of the socialist brigade. The fact that the remaining MP’s still support Turei and her now obvious lie of being so poor she had to steal taxpayer money shows how out of touch they remain.

PDB

No, the Greens are the Mana party in green drag. Turei would be a perfect fit for Mana. No true environmental party would have ousted two of it’s most environmentally aware MP’s because they spoke out against welfare fraud whilst rallying behind the fraudster.