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Indonesia-based Lion Group expanded its fleet by 16 aircraft in 1H2016, cementing its position as the largest airline group in Southeast Asia. Lion now has a fleet of more than 250 aircraft while its rival AirAsia – the region’s second largest group – has under 200 aircraft based in Southeast Asia.

However a net gain of 16 aircraft over the last six months marks a slowdown for Lion. The group’s fleet grew by 59 aircraft in 2015 and 39 aircraft in 2014.

None of Lion Group’s five airline subsidiaries or affiliates added more than five aircraft in 1H2016, resulting in relatively modest capacity expansion. The rate of expansion will likely pick up in 2H2016 but not approach previous levels.

Competition could again intensify on Australia-Bali routes, despite the upcoming withdrawal of AirAsia X. The long haul low cost group drove 7% growth in the Australia-Bali market in 2015 but is suspending services to Bali from Melbourne and Sydney at the end of Aug-2016.

The Lion Group and Turkish Airlines are both looking to launch services between Bali and Australia, which could potentially fill the void left by AirAsia X in the Bali to Melbourne and Sydney markets. The Lion Group could also fill the void in the Bali-Brisbane market left by Garuda Indonesia, which suspended services to Brisbane in early 2015.

The Australia-Bali market has grown steadily and nearly quadrupled in size over the last decade. However competition is intense, making it difficult for any new entrant – as AirAsia X discovered.