See also

References

Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Statistical Information Team at Cancer Research UK. Based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2016-based Life expectancies and population projections. Accessed December 2017, and Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Projections in the UK Until 2035. Brit J Cancer 2016.

About this data

Data is for UK, past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961, ICD-10 C73.

The calculations used past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961 to project risk over the lifetime of those born in 1961 (cohort method).[1] Projections are based on observed incidence and mortality rates and therefore implicitly include changes in cancer risk factors, diagnosis and treatment.

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classification. World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) classification does not include thyroid cancer because it is not generally recognised to have a relationship to food, nutrition, and physical activity.

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 8% of thyroid cancer cases in the UK are caused by overweight and obesity.[2]

Thyroid cancer risk is 10% higher in those who are overweight (body mass index [BMI] 25-29.9) and 27% higher in those who are obese (BMI 30+), compared with those of a normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), a meta-analysis showed.[3]

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 1% of thyroid cancer cases in the UK are caused by ionising radiation.[2]

The highest radiation-associated risks are for those exposed in childhood.[1] Radiation-associated risks may be higher for iodine-deficient people versus those with normal iodine levels.[3]

Raiotherapy

Thyroid cancer risk is 10-15 times higher in people who received a total dose of 10-30 Gray (Gy) of radiotherapy during childhood, compared with the general population a pooled analysis showed.[4] Thyroid cancer risk increases with radiotherapy dose up to around 10Gy, with little if any additional risk beyond this dose; risk also decreases with older age at time of radiotherapy.[4]

Diagnostic radiology

Thyroid cancer risk is not associated with receipt of dental X-rays since 1970, but is 17% higher per 10 dental X-rays received starting before 1970 (when X-ray doses were higher), a cohort study showed.[5]

Thyroid cancer risk is 33-78% higher in people who received computed tomography (CT) scans to the brain, facial bones or spine/neck in childhood, a cohort study showed; CT scans to other body parts were not associated with increased risk.[6]

Atomic bomb radiation

Thyroid cancer risk at age 60 is around 1.3 times higher per 1 Gray (Gy) radiation received, in people exposed to atomic bomb radiation during childhood, compared with the general population, a cohort study showed.[7] Thyroid cancer risk decreases with increasing time since atomic bomb radiation exposure and older age at the exposure; exposure aged 20+ is not associated with thyroid cancer risk.[7]

Thyroid cancer risk is 6.6 times higher in people with a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, child) with the same disease, compared with the general population, a cohort study showed.[1] Familial thyroid cancer risk is higher in people with multiple first-degree relatives affected, relative(s) diagnosed at a younger age, or an affected twin, a cohort study showed.[2]

Genetic factors

Genetic predisposition syndromes account for around 20-25% of medullary thyroid cancers, and around 5–15% of nonmedullary thyroid cancers.[3]

Autoimmune thyroiditis (Hashimoto’s thyroiditis) is a common cause of hypothyroidism. Around a quarter of patients with papillary thyroid cancer have autoimmune thyroiditis, a meta-analysis showed.[1]

Thyroid nodules

Thyroid cancer risk is higher in people with thyroid nodules, a large case-control study showed.[2] However only around 5% of thyroid nodules identified incidentally by ultrasound are malignant.[3,4]

Thyroid cancer risk among people with thyroid nodules is higher in those with a family history of thyroid cancer, previous radiation exposure, or larger and taller nodules, meta-analyses have shown.[4,5]

Goitre

Thyroid cancer risk is higher in people with goitre (swelling of the thyroid gland); risk may be slightly lower in multinodular versus single nodule goitre.[3,6]

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