Drought is likely to stay for winter

ALBANY -- With a serious rainfall deficit and the continuing effects of La Nina, Georgia's drought is likely to continue well into 2000, the state climatologist says.

Climatologist David Stooksbury, a University of Georgia engineering professor, said the state has been dry for nearly 18 months and is likely to remain dry through the winter, adding to the woes of farmers and urban residents who have been burdened with water restrictions.

The drought will increase the risk of wildfires and cause streams to drop even lower, increasing pollution and possibly threatening the state's shrimp industry, he said in an interview Monday. The dry conditions also could hamper spring planting by hindering seed germination.

''It does look like, basically, that this winter will be very similar to last winter, which was dry,'' Stooksbury said.

''Droughts in the winter are a little bit more insidious than in the summer,'' he said. ''In the summer, we're aware when the grass turns brown and the flowers wilt. In winter we can have adequate topsoil moisture for plants that are growing, but the deep soil moisture can be lacking.''

Stooksbury said all sections of the state need at least nine inches of rain to end the drought. But that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

September, October and November are traditionally Georgia's driest months. And La Nina, the cooling of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean, will continue to keep Georgia dry, Stooksbury said.

Northeastern, central and south-central Georgia have a rainfall deficit of 10 to 15 inches; rainfall for southwestern and west-central Georgia is 15 to 20 inches below normal, and the remainder of the state has a deficit of between 5 and 10 inches for the past 12 months, Stooksbury said.

The drought forced officials of some north Georgia communities, including Athens, Statham and Winder, to impose water restrictions this summer. In South Georgia's Lee County, dozens of homeowners blamed farmers, who had to rely heavily on irrigation systems, for making their wells run dry.

Agricultural losses exceeded $700 million in 1998 and farmers lost millions more this year. To ease their financial plight, the U.S. Agriculture Department has made farmers in all but one of Georgia's 159 counties eligible for low-interest drought relief loans of up to $500,000.

Henri Grissino-Mayer, an assistant professor of geosciences at Valdosta State University who studies long-range weather patterns, said he agrees with Stooksbury's dire assessment.

''We're not coming out of this drought as rapidly as we should,'' he said. ''Drought is a long-term phenomenon. I don't foresee it ending anytime soon. I wouldn't want to be a farmer right now.''