OBAMA LIKELY TO GIVE NATIONAL ADDRESS ON SYRIA, as best chance to turn around vote count -- DENIS McDONOUGH hits all 5 Sunday shows -- MARCO RUBIO on cover of Parade -- CHRIS CHRISTIE is 51

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COUNTING THE VOTES: ABC’s whip count has 217 of 233 voting House members on record opposing or likely opposing military force in Syria, which would mean defeat. http://abcn.ws/1fEvLDC

– “Obama could lose big on Syria in House,” by John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman: “If the House voted today on a resolution to attack Syria, President Obama would lose — and lose big. That’s the private assessment of House Republican and Democratic lawmakers and aides who are closely involved in the process. If the Senate passes a use-of-force resolution next week — which is no sure thing — the current dynamics suggest that the House would defeat it. That would represent a dramatic failure for Obama, and once again prove that his sway over Congress is extraordinarily limited. The loss would have serious reverberations throughout the next three months, when Obama faces off against Congress in a series of high-stakes fiscal battles. Several Republican leadership aides, who are counting votes but not encouraging a position, say that there are roughly one to two dozen ‘yes’ votes in favor of military action at this time.

“The stunningly low number is expected to grow a bit. But senior aides say they expect, at most, between 50 and 60 Republicans to vote with Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who support the president’s plan to bomb Syria to stop Bashar Assad from using chemical weapons on his people. That would amount to less than one-third of the House Republican Conference. That would mean the vast majority of the 200 House Democrats will need to vote with Obama for the resolution to pass. But Democrats privately say that Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) can only round up between 115 and 130 ‘yes’ votes. High-level congressional sources believe there is some time — but not much — for Obama, Boehner and Pelosi to turn things around. But any vote to authorize an attack on Syria will be extraordinarily close, according to people in both parties with direct knowledge of the political dynamics in the House Republican Conference and Democratic Caucus.

“Boehner and Cantor back the president’s plan for ‘limited, proportional’ strikes in Syria. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is not convinced it’s the right decision. McCarthy’s calculus seems to be more in line with many House Republicans — he has spoken to many of his allies in the last week, and the support for a U.S. strike on Syria is incredibly low, sources familiar with those discussions says say. House leaders plan to takes up the Syria resolution only if it passes the Senate first.

“The political climate, of course, can change. Pelosi is a legendary whip and has an uncanny ability to move her members. Since Congress is not in session, many lawmakers haven’t been lobbied by the Obama administration or attended its classified briefings. Obama hasn’t taken to the Oval Office to address the nation about Syria — many hope he’ll do that when he returns from the G-20 in Russia. The White House has already canceled a planned presidential trip to Los Angeles on Monday so the president can lobby lawmakers.” http://politi.co/1cOwHG9

MARK HALPERIN, rocking a beard on “Morning Joe”: “All the momentum is against the president right now. … I’m not sure, now, how they get time back on their side.”

DAVID AXELROD said on "Morning Joe" that Obama has to “make the case” to the American people on Syria and do it on “as big a stage as possible. ... The president needs to make the case and give them the arguments and the cover, frankly, for a yes vote, and that’s very, very important." --Tal Kopan

ERIC CANTOR, in Richmond Times-Dispatch op-ed, is a “yes.” (“America has a compelling national security interest”) http://bit.ly/13nCxLC

**A message from America's Mayors: Parents Send Congress Back to School on Background Checks -- Every day in America, seven kids are murdered with guns. That's why this week, supporters across the country are delivering seven backpacks filled with petitions to members of Congress, demanding background checks. Add your voice: http://maig.us/school. **

TOP TALKER – WSJ lead story, “Summers Faces Key ‘No’ Votes If Fed Pick,” by Damian Paletta and Kristina Peterson: “At least three Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee are expected to oppose Lawrence Summers if he is nominated to become Federal Reserve chairman, setting up a razor-thin vote … Democrats hold a two-vote majority on the 22-member panel, so the loss of three Democrats would make it impossible for Mr. Summers to advance to the full Senate for a confirmation vote without the backing of some of the 10 Republicans. No Republican has publicly expressed support so far for any potential White House nominee for Fed chief, giving President Barack Obama little margin for error. The committee Democrats expected to oppose Mr. Summers are Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.” http://on.wsj.com/17JKQBo

MARCO RUBIO on cover of PARADE, “The Rubios: MODERN FAMILY -- Senator Marco Rubio and his wife, Jeanette, are juggling four kids, a commuter marriage, and possible White House dreams” … Behind-the-scenes video http://bit.ly/1ao8glk ... See the cover. http://bit.ly/1dYqNGx

DEEP DIVE – A joint report by The Guardian, N.Y. Times and ProPublica – NYT 2-col. lead, “N.S.A. ABLE TO FOIL BASIC SAFEGUARDS OF PRIVACY ON WEB: Supercomputers and Guile Subvert Much Encryption, Documents Reveal,” by Nicole Perlroth, Jeff Larson of ProPublica, and Scott Shane: “The N.S.A. hacked into target computers to snare messages before they were encrypted. In some cases, companies say they were coerced by the government into handing over their master encryption keys or building in a back door. And the agency used its influence as the world’s most experienced code maker to covertly introduce weaknesses into the encryption standards followed by hardware and software developers around the world. … Intelligence officials asked The Times and ProPublica not to publish this article, saying it might prompt foreign targets to switch to new forms of encryption or communications that would be harder to collect or read. The news organizations removed some specific facts but decided to publish the article because of the value of a public debate about government actions that weaken the most powerful privacy tool.” http://nyti.ms/17JEodE

MEDIAWATCH: Tomorrow is the debut of the half-hour “PBS NewsHour Weekend,” anchored from New York (the Tisch WNET Studios at Lincoln Center) by Hari Sreenivasan, PBS NewsHour Senior Correspondent and Director of Digital Partnerships. Stories airing this weekend include: a look inside a Syrian refugee camp in Jordan; a report by longtime NBC Tel Aviv correspondent Martin Fletcher on Israel’s recent discovery of a huge offshore natural gas reserve; a preview of what to expect following Congress’ Monday return; a look at efforts from around the world designed to curb homelessness; and a profile by “NewsHour”’s Jeffrey Brown of composer and songwriter Stephen Sondheim and the MacDowell Arts Colony. Trailer http://youtu.be/PNw8Iz2OVkM

--THE DAILY BEAST's second annual Hero Summit will be Oct. 10 at the Andrew Mellon Auditorium in D.C. Speakers include Army Chief of Staff General Ray Odierno, retired U.S. Marine Corps four-star General John Allen, Former CIA Director General Michael Hayden, Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka, Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, NYC Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Producer Jerry Bruckheimer, New York Times Columnist David Brooks, Author and Former Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell, Lone Survivor Writer/Director Peter Berg, as well as two of the film's stars, Taylor Kitsch and Ben Foster.

In the evening, Tina Brown and Universal Studios President and COO Ron Meyer will host dinner and an exclusive screening of the brilliant new movie from writer/director Peter Berg, Universal Pictures' Lone Survivor, starring Mark Wahlberg, Taylor Kitsch, Emile Hirsch, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana. After the screening, Brown will be joined for a panel discussion by Foster, Kitsch, Berg, and retired Petty Officer 1stClass Marcus Luttrell, "Lone Survivor" author and former Navy SEAL. @HeroSummit ... #hero13

NANCY and PAUL PELOSI celebrate 50 years TOMORROW.

CRUCIAL CARLSON MOMENT: David Yarkin tomorrow will celebrate his birthday at a party thrown by his wife, Courtney Carlson, daughter of Margaret Carlson, who, like a mother from the old country, introduced them. Gov. Ed Rendell, who was instrumental in the matchmaking, will be at Buck's Camping and Fishing to raise a glass. No gifts except those with a Red Sox logo.

**A Message from America's Mayors: Parents Send Congress Back to School on Background Checks

Every day in America, seven kids are murdered with guns. That's why this week supporters across the country are delivering seven backpacks filled with petitions to members of Congress.

The more than 1000 mayors and 1.5 million grassroots supporters of Mayors Against Illegal Guns are reminding Congress that background checks are the single most effective way to prevent gun violence and save lives.

Send to a friendOBAMA LIKELY TO GIVE NATIONAL ADDRESS ON SYRIA, as best chance to turn around vote count -- DENIS McDONOUGH hits all 5 Sunday shows -- MARCO RUBIO on cover of Parade -- CHRIS CHRISTIE is 51