Vernor Vinge: What If the Singularity Does Not Happen?

Vinge began by declaring that he still believes that a Singularity event in the next few decades is the most likely outcome  meaning that self-accelerating technologies will speed up to the point of so profound a transformation that the other side of it is unknowable. And this transformation will be driven by Artifical Intelligences (AIs) that, once they become self-educating and self-empowering, soar beyond human capacity with shocking suddeness.

He added that he is not convinced by the fears of some that the AIs would exterminate humanity. He thinks they would be wise enough to keep us around as a fallback and backup  intelligences that can actually function without massive connectivity!