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A holistic approach to assessing the risks of climate change

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Sir David King will present a new approach to assessing the risks of climate change, designed to inform governments’ decision-making on how to prioritise the objective of reducing the risks of climate change relative to other national objectives. At the core of this is a different way of interrogating the science: instead of projecting ‘most likely’ climatic changes and then describing the impacts of those, this approach asks first what it is that we might wish to avoid, and then considers its likelihood as a function of time under different scenarios. This assessment of the science is complemented by assessments of the relative difficulty of achieving different global emissions pathways, and of the systemic risks of climate change to the global economy and international security. When combined with a recognition of the essentially subjective nature of any valuation of future events, this approach can give governments a clearer and more holistic assessment of the risk that climate change poses to their national interests.

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In 2009, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change called climate change “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”. Five years on, a new multidisciplinary, international Commission has formed to map out a comprehensive response to climate change, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. The Commission represents a collaboration between over 80 European and Chinese climate scientists and geographers, social and environmental scientists, biodiversity experts, engineers and energy policy experts, economists, political scientists and public policy experts, and health professionals – all seeking a response to climate change which is designed to protect and promote human health.

Nick Watts will present the key messages and recommendations from the Commission’s work.

15:30

Climate change, co-benefits and the global public health agenda

M. Neira (World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland)

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Climate change, co-benefits and the global public health agenda

N. Maria (1) (1) World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

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Dr Neira will address the implications of the evidence presented for the wider public health agenda, and in making a positive contribution to the preparations for the UNFCCC CoP21 in Paris in December. This will include outlining how evidence is now being translated into a support programme to build health system resilience to climate change, focussing on the most vulnerable countries. It will also focus particularly on the opportunities for large, local health cobenefits of climate change mitigation policies, particularly in reducing the over seven million annual deaths that WHO estimates are attributable to air pollution.