Emily Regenerates

It took a couple of days for Emily to recover from the mountains of Hispaniola, but she is as of 5pm a tropical depression once again. Recon went around in the thunderstorms this afternoon looking for the remnants of Emily had found a very messy circulation center near Grand Bahama island and a few other lesser defined vortices. She tightened up during the early afternoon and may have had winds of 40 mph at one point. Her thunderstorms are now less impressive. She is moving away from the northern Bahamas towards the north. Today she dropped numerous inches of rain in the northern Bahamas and in southern Florida on the western side of Emily’s circulation. Below is Emily’s current information from the NHC and the current satellite image, which is linked to the current satellite loop:

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph

Minimum central pressure: 1011 mb

Movement: due north

Location: north of Grand Bahama island or 24.7N 28.2W

I will not be writing forecasts on Emily from here on out, but I have two more verifications to write over the next few days. Looking ahead, there is a vicious tropical low in the far eastern Atlantic just off the coast of Africa. ASCAT passes earlier showed that this low was closed and organized. It had some stronger thunderstorms and has model support to become the next named storm, which would be Franklin. This to me seems like it should be at least an invest or maybe even a tropical depression. I will continue to watch this over the next week or two.

Meteorology Mumbo!

Eyewall Replacement Cycle -- As strong hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones intensify or hold steady, they can often replace the strongest region of winds and heaviest rains called the eyewall. This happens, usually in major hurricanes, when subsidence begins or intensifies outside of the eyewall OR a stronger band of storms forms outside of the main eyewall and feeds into the center of the system. Generally the effect is a weakening of the system at least temporarily. The hurricane also usually expands during this process. Cycles typically last 12-18 hours including the contraction process. The inner eyewall may dissipated in less than 12 hours after the outer eyewall forms.

Forecast Disclaimer

Any forecast that I make and post here or anywhere else is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion, and should be used as such. For official forecasts and information please go to the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov or your local National Weather Service at weather.gov.