Roger Federer begins his bid for a sixth Basel title Monday. In his opening match the Swiss native and top seed meets qualifier Benjamin Becker of Germany.

With Djokovic in a commanding point lead up over 2,000 in the 2012 points race, Federer will need to leave with another title to keep his slim hopes alive of finishing No. 1.

Vienna champion Juan Martin Del Potro is seeded second in the field. The Argentina could meet No. 3 seed Richard Gasquet in the semifinals while Federer is seeded to face countryman and No. 3 Stanislas Wawrinka.

The tournament announced on Saturday that Andy Murray withdrew to rest a tired back. The 25-year-old Scot is not expected to miss any further time from the tour with Paris and London ahead.

In Valencia, Spanish favorite and two-time tournament champ David Ferrer has been installed as the top seed. He’s joined by London hopefuls Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic, Juan Monaco, John Isner, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic and Nicolas Almagro. In all, eight of the Top 15 players are in Spain this week.

The tournament will also mark the retirement event for No. 1 and Spanish great Juan Carlos Ferrero.

“It’s the best possible stage for me to retire,” said the 32-year-old Ferrero who twice won the Valencia title. Ferrero will play Almagro in the first round on Tuesday following Ferrer’s match. He’s also in the doubles.

Take this one to set you up for Paris/WTF stretch and you even donot have to win Paris to be the best player of the year. Winning 9 prices would make a good enough case for that.
You can bring the #1 ranking back in Auzieland if you happen to loose the ranking to Djoker.

1. Win Paris.
2. Finals in Paris, win two round robin matches at London.
3. SF in Paris, win all 3 round robin matches in london or win 2 round robin matches and win the SF in London.
4. QF in Paris, and reach the finals in London.
5. Round of 16 in Paris, win all 3 round robin AND SF in London.
6. Lose first round or not play Paris, reach London finals.

Djoke has so many more paths to No. 1 here. He pretty much has to NOT reach the SF at both Paris and London, and Fed has to win both (without a loss in London) for Djoke NOT to be No. 1 end of the year.

Highly unlikely.

Interesting thing will be – will Fed play Paris if he wins Basel (he surely won’t if he doesn’t win Basel, since he would have lost the No. 1 ranking already then).

I think Fed will play Paris if he wins Basel, and see how it goes. By not playing Paris, he GUARANTEES that Djoke is no. 1.

Fed should have really cranked it up in Shanghai to win it. His path to No. 1 would have been so much easier then.

Fed’s chances of finishing as #1 are really slim, especially considering that Nole is highly unlikely to fade out during these last few weeks as he did last year. It would be amazing if he pulled it off.

Perhaps I’m a bit out of the news cycle, but was it always the case that Djokovic was not going to return to Basel this year, or was this news to some people? He has 180 points from last year, but clearly there’s no dire need for him to defend those this week given the many paths he has to #1 that trufan outlined above.

the mind reels, it hasn’t been in his calendar that I’ve seen; i.e., he wasn’t planning to play there. I think he planned to return to the Asian swing this year from the beginning. He missed it last year, and he loves playing there – usually does well and has loads of fan support. Plus, with the rejigging of the calendar such that Basel, Paris, and WTF and back-to-back-to-back, Nole’s team must’ve decided something had to give and so they opted out of Basel. I think Nole always enjoyed playing that event, too, but it just could not fit this time.

If what I read about Paris moving to February really comes to pass, then I’d imagine the field for Basel would be considerable boosted again.

trufan, thanks for the break down of the numbers; obviously I’d love to see Nole get his second year end number 1 spot, and add to his 53 weeks up there. :)

Trufan just pointed out the ways djokovic could finish the year as World Number 1. It’s very likely that djokovic WILL end 2012 as no. 1 considering his current form

BUT, I think there are chances that djokovic may face murray in the semi in Paris and lose. And he MAY lose 1 of his 3 round robin matches (assuming he gets murray in his group and also assuming he loses that match!) and lose in the semi at the YEC. Thus he gets 300 points from Paris and 400 points from the YEC. A total of 700 points. Don’t tell me it’s an impossible scenario! ;)

If that ^^ happens, now there is a chance for federer to finish the year at no. 1. He has to win all the matches and gather the remaining 3000 points. But the question is, CAN HE WIN 3 TOURNAMENTS IN A ROW FROM 3 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS?? I don’t know.

Logic says, he’s 31. He can’t.
Heart says, he is Federer. He can surprise you like he always has been. This time I’d like to go with the heart :)

steve-o am glad for this comment, because just before, I lost the live stream and can’t get it back!

Well done Fed!

As for the no. 1, I think it is about as certain as can be that Nole is more likely than not to take the no. 1, fed said that its about winning the trophies, but of course, to be no. 1 attracts its own panache. Would be great for the fed fans, but still it’s Roger playing a high level and a shed load of tournaments with little rest since the USO. Seems that way anyway.

@Trufan
If Djokovic makes the finals in PAris, he is the new no 1 in the ATP singles rankinks, regardless of Federer’s results there.
I expect Murray to push hard in Paris as he hasn’t won a Master yet this year.

“The other mistake he did was playing davis cup, instead of playing beijing or tokyo!”

Maybe he had maxed out on smaller events, because there are only so many, aren’t there? I don’t know the exact rules on that. He played Doha, I think, he wouldn’t miss Basel, he played Dubai, Halle,… did he have room to add a 250 or 500? You probably know better than I.

That’s what I initially thought – but given the lead Djoke has in the race points (2155), if Fed wins Basel, Djoke’s lead is 1655. If Fed wins both Paris and London, Fed will end the year 845 points ahead. That means Djoke needs to get 850 in the remainder of the year to end the year No. 1.

Isn’t that so? That would mean Djoke has to win Paris to be 100% of being No. 1 at the year end.

IMO, the long Olympics semi-final, which led Roger to withdraw from Canada, was crucial. Canada had some cheap points on offer. The bad US open did not help and the Davis Cup took away some precious days of rest. This likely had an impact on his training block and the reason for him being so unusually ill-prepared and rusty for Shanghai. The tight schedule starting with Basel should have alerted Roger if he had any serious intention (unrealistic anyway due to his age) of holding on to his ranking. On the other hand, Novak deserves a lot of credit for being so consistent and planning his schedule very well this year. He probably took a calculated risk with Canada and it paid off big time. That made a huge difference in the race. The successful Asian swing just about sealed it. He will now join the ranks of Borg, Lendl, Edberg and Hewitt. He can afford to relax and turn up fresher than anybody else for his assault on Paris and London. The odds must also be very short for him ending 2013 as the number one ranked player.

Much thanks to trufan for providing the breakdown of points regarding Fed’s race to finish No.1. I’m afraid to say it, but the situation doesn’t appear to be too promising for dear Fed.

What a pity Fed has to pay so very much for his participation in Davis cup this year.

I agree with rogerrafa that Fed’s withdrawal from Toronto was/is a key factor in the huge deficit of points Fed is now facing. What a shame.

I’m so ticked off at Berdych for killing Fed’s chances at the USO. T-Berd was definitely a spoiler, as he is more times than I care to remember. Tsonga is another who gives his all to beat Fed only to drop off in the subsequent rounds.

I think we will have to go with what Fed stated in one of his press conferences, that had he wanted to retain the No.1 YE ranking he would have played the Asian swing. Perhaps, it’s better this way because we don’t want for him to wear himself out to keep the No.1, and then not be able to play for a considerable amount of time next year. This way, we get to see Fed play the important tournaments for a much longer period in the future.

I saw it, thanks it was nice read, but really he couldn’t expect Nole to be in a mood for interview after the Olympic games, by Nole’s admission his worst and hardest to take loss …and Mari(j)a has nothing to do with Nole:)

trig,I assume that You are Nole,s fan and that is why I am commenting the article of Don Markowitz. First of all I do not know way Nole did not accept the interview with Don,but if I were Nole I would not eider. Nole did answer the best way by winning.Don and others should leave his father ,family,girlfriend out of the story.I am glad that he did not answer Don,s questions ,just for sake of people that he cares for.

I don’t understand what makes you react this way. Dan wrote a very interesting article about Novak, describing his training routine, his relationship with other players, giving a plastic picture of the everyday life of professional tennis player.

Why should he leave his father out of an article? If I remember well, a tennis commentator lost his job because of his father. His father also played a role in the Serbian tennis federation. He should be more discreet himself if he wants to stay out of media cover.

Dan only quoted a part of Nole’s interview, when he mentioned his dog. Should he leave his dog out of the story too?

I am personally against involving family in an interview, particulary when it comes to Nole’s father because he has nothing to do with Nole’s tennis, like some of the other parents, he was one who enabled Nole to become what he is by suporting him in all means. The other people were managing tennis side since Srdjan doesn’t have a clue about tennis nor pretended that he does. He and his brother are looking after others Nole’s interests and they are very good at it.
Srdjan is tough cookie, he lives by the old testament, doesn’t forget the bad things somebody did to him or his nearest, hard to forgive and seeks revenge. I understand him knowing how hard he had to work fight to achive what he achieved and with how many obstacles on the way.
Srdjan has nothing to do with Serbian tennis association it is his brother Goran but he was behind the push to remove former President (Bobo Zivojinovic) who was extremly incorrect towards young Novak by saying that he is to week physically and to ill and will never be good tennis player. He even kicked Nole out of one tournament to make room for his protege, Srdjan never forgave him that, rightfully so, and he finished him off as president of tennis association, though Boba offically resigned due to other “commitments.”

trig, You just answered on Your question “a tennis commentator lost his job because of his father” Do You really think this is the truth? Which role in the Serbian tennis federation he played? He applied for the position and he did not win.When his father is discreet they ask where he is,maybe something is not right between them.When he is not discreet he is easy target for people that want to offend Novak. And so on and on ….Why Nole need that.Do You realy believe that Dan cares about Nole,s problems if there are some,I do not.

“I wanted to see if I could get him to address his relationship with the king of tennis as well as other issues: like why in recent years we’ve seen him reel in his personality and eschew the imitations he used to perform; why his parents, especially his father, who is such a colorful chap, rarely attend his matches anymore”

What’s wrong with this?

Nebojsa Viskovic lost his job on the Serbian national television. Easy to check.

Zivojinovic had more griefs than that, especially with the finances of the federation.

I watched him a few times, twenty years ago, especially in the DC tie against France, when he arguably played his best tennis and beat Leconte and Noah. What’s troubling about him is that he started as a clay court specialist, if I remember well.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved watching Zivojinovic playing DC matches for then Yugoslavia. Goran Ivanisevic started alongside him and Boba was influental for him, though Ivanisevic is not going to say that. I remember Boba at AO eating his sandwitch while JMC was running riots on the court:)
He did very well moneywise, beeing very good friend with Boris Becker and having manager (methinks) Ion Tiriak who set him up nicely for bussines in Belgrade. Romanian bloke is very good with money and helping people who are loyal to him:) Him and his wife, famous folk singer, are also part owners of Music company “Grand production” so he did more than well for a son of tennis court keeper, that is how he learnd to play tennis.
The money wasn’t the problem in federation, it was personal thing with Nole’s father, thrust me. It was group of people from tennis federation including Boba who almost cost Nole his tennis future.

When it comes to Nebojsa Viskovic, very good tennis commentator and coach too, he had arguments with Srdjan in 2008. When Serbia Open came in 2009, Srdjan requested TV network not to send Nebojsa as commentators for Serbia Open, Or they will not get TV rights, when General Manager of Serbian Television agreed, he didn’t have much choice really since the owners of SO are Djokovic brothers, Nebojsa Viskovic resigned in a protest and joined “Sport klub.” Bottom line is, Srdjan didn’t ask them to sack him though his actions caused Nebojsa to resign in protest. You can look at it either way.
The only one who benefited was “Sport klub” they ended up with good commentator:)

trig,I will just ask You, did You read Dan,s interview with Federer or Nadal? If You did I am sorry and wrong.If there are no Dan,s interviews with them I will ask You way he came first to do interview with Novak when he even does not like his stile of play?
“there is not the same muschlarity or grace to his performances” “is he refreshing straight shooter or more savvy public relation machine”
Really, he did not see up to now who Nole is.
Down the road there were many people trowing the stones to Nole and now they pretend to be friendly
with him but they still do not like him. Nole,s tim is there to protect him.

trig is Nole fan, die hard one :) he just wanted to hear more from Nole about Nole but it wasn’t to be, for a better or worst???…God knows.
You are right about his team, more than good one…… even Murray said that in Shanghai. He has Slovakian, Austrian, Italian and one Serbian in his team, nicely done:)

Goffin just knocked Isner out of Valencia despite being a break down in the 3rd. It’s been a disappointing run since Courier declared him ‘the most disruptive force in tennis’. In other news both Tsonga and Tipsy retired from their matches. Strategic or walking wounded?

Wog boy,I have to ask You the same question:do You really think that I do not know who trig is? My English is bad but my brain is OK.I liked his comments he is Nole,s fan but for me he is not die hard one.There are many reasons for that.One of reasons,he is so sure that Srdjan is bad man,so sure like he was there when Srdjan took the job from Nebojsa.Do die hard fan is like that.Loyal fan will say something to Dan about his comment of Nole,s style of play.Federer has much more die hard fans,and that is way Dan did not go to Federer for this kind of interviews.Only really loyal Nole,s fan from 2007/08 on this site is Jane
and now You.I do not care which names I will get after this because I do not care for the people who do that but I really care about people like Jane and You.

@lazslo: October 22nd, 2012 at 11:48 pm,
I agree Fed could get the YE No.1 ranking, but it’s going to be a tough ask. As Dave mentioned, quite a few things have to fall into place for Fed the pull this off. Maybe some luck?

I don’t doubt he has the hunger, so we’ll see….

@trufan, adding to my comment previously on a Iompetitive YEC, more and more I’m thinking that Tsonga, T-Berd and Tips will be almost burned out, and of the three only T-Berd will be a threat. Both Tips and Tsonga retired at Valencia.

I’ve noticed with those 3 that when they go deep at a previous tournament, then they seem to follow-up with poor results at the next. I guess T-berd has the most endurance and stamina than the other two. Somehow I don’t see Tips as a consistent top 10 performer.

I don’t agree with everything Dan write, of course. He is not always right, but when he makes a valid point, I like to read it. Scoop Malinowski is a Nole fan on that other site, and I like his posts too, even when they are biased.

But it is not the point. By your conception, I am definitely not a “die hard” fan. I don’t even understand what it means. I watched all Nole’s match from IW 2007, and some before. (Though I have to admit I watched Murray a lot too until the second part of 2008, and Safin also when he wanted to play.) I like his style, the way he improves, I have difficult moments when he loses (to quote Alison, “losing stinks”), and I consider myself a fan.

For the rest, I don’t care. I’ve got nothing against his father. But the truth stays the truth. A tennis journalist got fired because of him, and he influenced the elections for chairman of the STF. I’ve got nothing against Helene Ristic. But I don’t give a damn also about her. If Nole chose to change his girlfriend for, let’s say, Maria Sharapova, fine with me.

The important, for me, will be to see Novak fulfil his potential and play with courage and virtuosity as long as he can. I don’t even care if he loses, then.

I was a fan of Jimmy Connors and I liked him the most at the end of his illustrious career, for his will, his fighting spirit in front of the Sysyphean task the tour had become for him.

About Dan Markowitz: Dan can conceal his deception for the interview. You didn’t read his previous texts about Novak. Ask yourself why he wanted to make an interview with Nole, and not Rafa or Roger?

About Novak’s style. I think he is basically an attacker. Most of the time, only Federer makes more winner in average in a tournament. I like the way he plays, I like his backhand and his FH on the run.

But I can’t argue all year long with everybody who doesn’t like his style.

I don’t understand why you are so… touchy. Why you put so much emotion in… a hobby, this. I would rather write something positive and exchange opinions about tennis with you, instead of this pointless and wearing polemic.

Sorry trig I did not want to have this pointless and wearing polemic with You.I just think that there are many non Novak,s fans that they offend Novak,s family when they want to offend Nole. IMO Novak,s fans should not do that.Any way sorry again,maybe I can express my self because of my English,If it is my language it would be different.I still think that Nole should not answer Dan,s questions but I will stop here.
All the best.

There You are mat4,now You have chance to become die hard fan, stay here and fight hard do not disappear.
So You were there in the summer just on time when I was there. My family is making the best rakija and my girlfriends are very beautiful girls.
Next time when You go there rakija will wait for You,girls I do not know I think You are married man.

Mat4 just to say great to see you posting again,i was dissapointed,as i thought we had lost you for good,and just to say im sorry if i ever offended you,i dont wish to offend anyone if i can help it,i only come here to give an opinion thats all.

Trig i know what you mean,there are certain posters i no longer bother with anymore, unless they address me personally,its just not worth the aggrivation TBH,i did concider doing a dissapearing act myself a while back,as the comments were becoming down right spitefull,really near the knuckle stuff,and the insults getting rather personal,things seem to have calmed down though im pleased to say,and we are back to talking tennis hooray.

Wogboy well its as the saying goes,great minds think alike,we also have the same taste in football too with LFC,even though you like Nole/Andy and i like Rafa/Andy, just curious but did i once read that you used to be a Rafa fan?

Your memory is good:) I did say that Rafa was my second favourite player until YEC in London 2010. I didn’t like the way he reacted on Novak’s problems with contact lenses in their match, that was all. I am like that, right or wrong but that is me. When I love I love when I don’t I don’t:)

Giles dont get me wrong i love the guy to bits,and im gutted that hes not playing,and if you read my comments lately,you would see how frustated i get when people say dont bother playing unless its on a CC,because as a fan i think he deserves more credit than that,but some of the things he does ie the MTOs(granted hes not the only one),the time taken between points(again granted hes not the only one),the two year rolling ranking system,the injury talk after a loss,the shoulder bumping against Rosol,he does spend rather alot of time whining IMO,believe me i love the guy,and its because i love the guy that is what makes everything all the more frustrating,i dont enjoy what people say about him far from it,but i have to be honest and say that i cant condone some of the things he says or does ,i love my husband also,but that doesnt mean to say that i like him all the time,or everything that he does either,im a die hard Rafa fan,but if you dont believe me,im afraid theres not alot i can do about that sorry.

Giles thanks for the link,its dissapointing although not highly unexpected,he should only play as and when hes fit and ready,im positive he will come back with a bang,luurve the look,veeery stylish,veery sexy,vamos Rafa.

That was one “sick” interview by Rafa :(. Get in better shape, it’s a sport, not bowling. And you don’t have to play that style of tennis that is ultra demanding on your body. Thankfully there are many more tournaments for players and fans now, and a guy ranked 50 in doubles can actually make a living.

Actually I think he can change his game and I think him and Don Vito uncle Tony are working on it, that is why he took such a long break, he is smart young man and knows his limits, IMO. Remember 2009 when he came back it was different game and it payed until Nole hit new heghts in 2011, but still they both were cut above the others in 2011. Rafa will be back different Rafa, different for better, you will see.

Wogboy i liked the style he played that won him the USO,more pop on the serve and also flattening out the ground strokes,unfortunatly that new serve also injured his shoulder,i also noticed in the Wimbledon final the same year against Berdych he was ending the points quicker,not so many long rallies,wish he had stuck with that style,if only (sigh).

There is one thing that we are privileged to have as tennis fans, regardless how people are looking at this era, but this young players keep pushing each other to rich new heights. Nole said numerous times if it wasn’t for Federer and Rafa he would never be the player he is nor he would have that 2011 year. They keep improving, changing, adjusting etc etc in order to beat each other and now Murray joined them. You can call it best or not best era but I don’t remember in previous years players doing all of that to beat each other, I mean all those changes in their games, but I am still young so don’t remember to far back:)