Apple has been ordering enough components to have built a stockpile of several million iPhone 4s in anticipation of this month's launch and continue on with a quarterly run rate of roughly 9 million units, according to a published report.

Asia Optical chairman Robert Lai recently revealed that his firm has been delivering VGA lens kits to Apple for the iPhone 4's front-facing video camera since May, with monthly shipments averaging 3 million.

The iPhone maker's business will reportedly boost Asia Optical's optical lens kit revenues by some 25% to 30%. In addition to the front-facing VGA-quality video conferencing camera, the iPhone 4 also sports a 5-megapixel still camera on its backside that's also capable of HD (720p) video recording at up to 30 frames per second.

Lai's comments would suggest that Apple is posed to ship at least 9 million iPhone 4s during its fourth fiscal quarter of the year ending September, which would represent a more than 20% increase in iPhone sales year-over-year before shipments of iPhone 3GS -- which the company will continue to offer -- are factored into the mix.

When combined, Apple could see itself break the 10 million unit milestone for iPhone sales during a single quarter for the first time in its history. Its quarterly record currently stands at 8.75 million units, which was achieved during its second fiscal quarter of 2010 ended March.

For its part, rival Research in Motion broke the 10 million unit barrier for the first time last fall when it shipped a record 10.1 million Blackberries during its November quarter.

this is good news for myself and everyone else looking to upgrade, especially since those with the 3G will be at the 2-year mark AND at&t is allowing those with a 3Gs to upgrade after 6 months without paying an extra $200. there will be a LOT of people looking to upgrade.

...so my new phone will cost me $199 and Gazelle is giving me $261 for my old phone, AND my data plan will be $5 less per month... that's better than a free upgrade - i will get money back and a cheaper monthly bill. to all you ATT haters, the network is PERFECT here in Connecticut.

It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.

True, but you are forgetting about the rest of the world which is the biggest part of the market.

I think it's interesting that with the first model they were hoping (with fingers crossed!) to sell 10 million in a year, and here we are four years later looking at 10 million a quarter.

I used to ascribe to the "Apple will only be a fraction of the Android dominated market in the end" view, but more and more lately I think this is just an expectation based on the history of Windows/Mac and has no real facts to support it. I don't see any reason why Apple couldn't totally dominate the mobile market and eventually take a 70, 80, or even 90% share (worldwide that is).

Americans or so US centred! Have you ever heard of "the rest of the world?"

Who else would they be concerned about, they aren't Apple. I don't care if France has enough, as long as Canada gets some... Besides, Apple does need to be concerned about growth in the U.S. especially since Android is on multiple carriers...

It's only after you've lost everything that you're free to do anything.

Anybody know if the pre-orders will be delivered on the release date of the 24th?

The magic 8-ball says "all indications say it is so." If you order on 15th or very soon thereafter, you will get it on the 24th (or be able pick up at apple store on same date, your choice at time of ordering). That's what I read and hear anyway.

I doubt it. The article indicates that Apple appears to be on track with producing enough iPhones to roughly equal the highest selling quarter.

The problem with the iPad is that A.) Apple had no historical data on which to base manufacturing forecasts, and B.) availability of the large 10" IPS display was constrained (Apple even second-sourced the part).

For the iPhone, I'm guessing that availability of the "Retina Display" panel will be the limiting factor.

With iPhone revenue so much of Apple's bottom line, I will put my trust in Apple's senior management team that they know what they're doing. After all, I'm a longtime AAPL shareholder and they have consistently shown an ability to increase shareholder value.

No sense in me playing armchair CEO. It is unlikely that I would do any better than Steve.

I doubt it. Unlike the iPad, Apple already have three years of sales data for the iPhone. They know that they've sold 1M 3GS iPhones on the first weekend last year. This year they will definitely sell much more. I predict at least 2M iPhone 4s on the launch weekend (24th to 27th).

I doubt it. Unlike the iPad, Apple already have three years of sales data for the iPhone. They know that they've sold 1M 3GS iPhones on the first weekend last year. This year they will definitely sell much more. I predict at least 2M iPhone 4s on the launch weekend (24th to 27th).

Just because after four years, they've managed to get the supply sorted out in the US, doesn't mean there won't be shortages and delays almost everywhere else as usual.

The international view of Apple's product roll-outs is decidedly different than the view from the USA.

I don't think Apple will have any problems shifting these and reaching their targets. This is a major upgrade unlike the 3GS and that has performed outstandingly well.

The order bank pretty much shows that Apple know they have a winner. The feedback i'm getting from both current iPhone users and wannabes here in the UK is very positive. I also think they will have learned a lot from the iPad fiasco, they clearly underestimated that, which is understandable with a new product in a new category.

Do i sound like i'm psyched or what

A reputation is not built upon the restful domain of one's comfort zone; it is made out of stalwart exposition of your core beliefs, for all challenges to disprove them as irrelevant hubris.- Berp...

Just because after four years, they've managed to get the supply sorted out in the US, doesn't mean there won't be shortages and delays almost everywhere else as usual.

The international view of Apple's product roll-outs is decidedly different than the view from the USA.

Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.

We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.

Should be delivered on the 24th. Last year I pre-ordered my 3GS and it was delivered at 9am on the release date! Much better than standing in line.

Thanks for the info. Last year my wife took the kids and stood in line a long time. I think I'll just order and have it delivered this year. Just don't want to be waiting over the weekend if possible. But, in the grand scheme of life that wouldn't be that big of a deal.

I always wondered why that would be the case though. Assuming Android is crappy like everyone else says about iOS, then iOS will eventually dominate, even if it is late to the multi-carrier party.

Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.

I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.

Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.

I predict they will sell out the first day no matter how many they make. You heard it here first. I further predict they will start pushing back pre-orders after three days. In fact, don't even bother trying to get one. If I can frighten off enough of you, it should increase my chances of getting in on the first round.

Apple has no competition. Every commercial product which competes directly with an Apple product gives the distinct impression that, Where it is original, it is not good, and where it is good, it...

It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.

So what if Android gets a foothold. Windows machines outnumber Apple machines when it comes to desktop computing, yet Apple manages to sell lots of hardware and make lots of money.

It is not that I think Apple ignores market share but it certainly isn't their primary focus. Nor should it be.

That being said, I believe the reason why AT&T expanded the eligibility requirements for the new phone is because they know they won't be the only iPhone carrier much longer and they want to get as many people as possible tied up with new 2 year contracts.

-kpluck

Do you use MagicJack?

The default settings will automatically charge your credit card each year for service renewal. You will not be notified or warned in anyway. You can turn auto renewal off.

Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.

We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.

Well, I don't think you are reading me either. What I'm saying is that it *was* hard to get an iPhone in previous years, outside of the USA.

Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.

Well here in Finland some people had to wait as long as two months (or maybe even more) to get their iPhones last year, if I remember correctly. It certainly wasn't easy to get an iPhone back then, stores were out of stock for months and got only small batches of devices at once.

I'm not exactly aware of the situation in other countries, but this is how it was here.

You can commit no mistake and still lose. That's not a weakness. That's life.

True, but you are forgetting about the rest of the world which is the biggest part of the market.

I think it's interesting that with the first model they were hoping (with fingers crossed!) to sell 10 million in a year, and here we are four years later looking at 10 million a quarter.

I used to ascribe to the "Apple will only be a fraction of the Android dominated market in the end" view, but more and more lately I think this is just an expectation based on the history of Windows/Mac and has no real facts to support it. I don't see any reason why Apple couldn't totally dominate the mobile market and eventually take a 70, 80, or even 90% share (worldwide that is).

Prof., wasn't there an AI article sometime back that cited world share of iPhone sales was at like 46% of total iPhone sales. So not only is the "world" catching up in sales (as compared to US sales) but the market remaining is much, much larger than the remaining US market. So Apple could see world sales of the iPhone overtake US sales entirely. Perhaps that's the intent with their agressive release schedule - June for the US, July for Canada/Europe/Japan, August for much of the rest of the world, or something like that.

Android can technically, in terms of sheer numbers, "out-sell" the iPhone especially if the carriers are agressive around price-points, BOGOs and subsidies. However in real terms like profitability and customer loyalty, Apple can occupy 2nd or 3rd market sales volume position and still be fantastically successful. Just like marketcap, Apple has openly declared their lack of interest in being the majority player in smartphones (remember Steve initially said their target was 1% of the mobile phone market - which is the whole market - and they exceeded that this last year I believe). But they have been very successful also at setting the UI standards and establishing a consumer-driven ecosystem that forces the rest of the cell industry to scramble to address.

Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.

I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.

Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.

Just my .02.

All unassailable points.

Tim Cook is gay, believes in climate change, and cares deeply about racial equality. Deal with it (and please spare us if you can't).

Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.

Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.

Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.

Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.

This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.

If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.