Saturday, December 19, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part II

In the second post of my series explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team, it's time to take a look at the remaining teams in the NFC East and NFC North.

Click here to read why the other teams in the NFC East and NFC North won't get any comp picks in 2010.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.

Philadelphia — The Eagles signed three players who will qualify for the comp picks equation and lost five players who will qualify, so they should receive two picks. The only player they lost whose compensatory value is higher than a seventh-round pick is Brian Dawkins, and the signing of Stacy Andrews, whose average contract value is almost twice as much, cancels out the loss of Dawkins. Therefore, the Eagles should receive two comp picks in the seventh round.

Minnesota — The Vikings lost two qualifying players and signed one, giving them one comp pick. The signing of Karl Paymah cancels out the loss of their lower-valued player lost, and that is Darren Sharper, whose performance this season is irrelevant to the equation. That leaves the Vikings with a pick as compensation for losing Matt Birk, in either the fifth or sixth round.

Green Bay — The Packers lost Colin Cole and didn't sign anyone who will qualify. They should receive a comp pick in either the fifth or sixth round.

Chicago — The Bears will not receive a comp pick. They signed two players who will qualify, and they lost one who will qualify and one (Brandon McGowan) who almost certainly will not qualify. Even if McGowan somehow qualifies, the combined values of the players signed is more than that of the players lost, so the Bears will not even receive a "net value" pick.

The contract values you listed for Dawkins, Considine, Buckhalter, Andrews and Jones are not correct. The signing of Andrews cancels out the loss of Dawkins. All of the other players signed or lost have a seventh-round comp value.

The only factors are contract value, playing time and postseason honors.

Dawkins made the Pro Bowl and played much more than Andrews, but he also signed for less than $3.4 million per season. Andrews signed for more than $6.4 million per season. Dawkins' playing time and postseason honors aren't nearly enough to make up for the difference in contract value.

The Eagles seem to agree. Howie Roseman said the team expects two low-round comp picks, which matches my preliminary projection.