Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2016 Final Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The nominees for this category seemed set in stone a month ago. All the precursors pretty much agree on this lineup. Viola Davis will finally win her Oscar for Fences. Michelle Williams could surprise if Manchester by the Sea sweeps the night. But Viola has this in the bag.

The other remaining slots are going to go to Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman for Lion and Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures. Greta Gerwig and Janelle Monae both had good years in multiple films, but aren't strong enough to break into the five nominees.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Supporting Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES

Viola Davis,

Fences

Michelle Williams,

Manchester by the
Sea

Naomie Harris,

Moonlight

Nicole Kidman,

Lion

Octavia Spencer,

Hidden Figures

Hard-working, veteran actress with previous Oscar
nominations.She was once a
frontrunner for The Help and lost to Streep.It is Viola’s time and this is an amazing performance that none of
these others are matching.

A critical favorite actress who has not won at the Oscars
yet.She is the one who could
surprise, but she is going to have to wait longer.

Actress who has been around a long-time that has not been
seriously up for an Oscar until now.Moonlight gives her a small, but pivotal role.She will ride the film’s good will to her
first nomination.

Despite not being a big star anymore, Kidman can still
stay in the Oscar conversation.This
is her first successful awards bait role in a while.She has been up for enough precursors to
get a nomination.

Octavia hasn’t been back to the Oscars since she won for
The Help (even though she has done consistently strong work, namely in
Fruitvale Station).It is time for her
to be recognized again.She has some
internal competition with Monae, but Spencer has been getting the precursor
nods.

THE RUNNER-UPS

Greta Gerwig,

20th
Century Women

Janelle Monae,

Hidden Figures

Helen Mirren,

Eye in the Sky

Molly Shannon,

Other People

Janelle Monae,

Moonlight

Gerwig is a critical, indie darling who hasn’t been up for
the Oscars yet.Pundits keep
mentioning her in this role, but she’s missed out on the precursors.Still not Gerwig’s time.

Monae has been having a good year with this and
Moonlight.She has as good of a chance
at upsetting as anybody.Although she
will probably miss out this year, she can ride this year to future
nominations.

Mirren is one of those names that is always in contention,
even if people aren’t talking much about her.This was a well-received film, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a
campaign in place.

Comedic performer delivering a dramatic performance can
sometimes be a winning formula, but we would have seen Molly show up more
before now if anything was going to happen.

Again, she’s had a good year and is very good in a small
role.There aren’t too many other
names to seriously consider.But if
she makes it for anything it will be Hidden Figures.

THE LONG SHOTS

Greta Gerwig,

Jackie

Margo Martindale,

The Hollars

Margaret Bowman,

Hell or High Water

Elle Fanning,

20th
Century Women

Gugu Mbatha-Raw,

Miss Sloane

Gerwig has also been in the conversation for Jackie, but
that film isn’t a strong contender.Portman isn’t a strong enough acting contender to carry Gerwig to a
nomination for this film.

Veteran actress that has been in the Oscar conversation
early on before.She needs the right
role, because this film has been all but forgotten.

Not a big name, but she had the small waitress role that
kind of stole the show.Hell or High
Water is going to be up for enough Oscars that this could have been
conceivable in another year.

With this and Live by Night, Elle Fanning is definitely
working towards Oscar consideration.But neither film will be strong enough to carry her.

Mbatha-Raw is just waiting for her breakout role.She is a hardworking actress that critics
like, but not going to be her year yet.