The GFS is still trying to bring a disturbance through the Marianasthe next few days, but it has been wildly inconsistent from one runto the next, as has the NAVGEM. The ECMWF has been much more stable,taking a broad weak circulation westward well south of Guam Sundayand Monday, with increased cloudiness for the Marianas as it passes.I feel the previous shift made an excellent decision in using ECMWFwinds, as these should be more representative than GFS or NAVGEM,and have kept those. This will keep winds from the east through theforecast, with increased cloudiness by Monday morning. Marineconditions will remain steady, with moderate trades, and combinedseas generally in the 3-5 ft range.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202014Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN TO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL ORGANIZATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210436Z SSMI F-15 37GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WRAP AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MOST RECENT METOP-B 25KM ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON ANALYZED ENVIRONMENTAL DATA AND THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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All of the models are in good agreement that the disturbance thatis southwest of Chuuk will undergo slow development as it movestoward the northwest. The current track will keep the system tothe southwest of Guam as a weak system. All the models are in goodagreement as well that convection will increase over the regionlate in the weekend. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstormsbeginning Sunday and continuing through Monday night remain inthe forecast. The GFS also indicates that a very unsettled patternwill persist over the area through the end of next week.

TheECMWF-HiRes moves it west-northwestward taking it near Yap as aweak circulation. The GFS40 yanks it north-northwestward for atime so that it ends up southwest of Guam. It ends up well northof Yap then gets picked up by the baroclinic westerlies in themid latitudes. Given that this is only April, forecast leans moretoward the ECMWF-HiRes. Since winds are fairly weak and most ofthe convection is expected to be north and east of the center, thedifference to the forecast for Koror and Yap is really prettyminimal. It is worth noting, however, that the previous run of theECMWF-HiRes spun it up into a typhoon after its encounter withYap, while this latest run keeps it a weak 10 to 15 knotcirculation the entire 10 days.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220006Z METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATEGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 146.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222134Z NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 230040Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MODERATELY DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 142.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231755Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A 231231Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS (20 KNOTS) WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF IMPROVED POLAR OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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H. REMARKS...93W HAS A VERY GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION IN VIS/IRANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SYMMETRICCONVECTIVE BANDING. ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELCENTER IS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS ONTHE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. BANDING WRAPS .55 ON LOGSPIRAL FOR DT=2.5. MET=2.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT=2.0. FTIS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...RUMINSKI

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WTPN21 PGTW 240500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 139.8E TO 15.4N 134.7EWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 11.9N 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07KNOTS.2. REMARKS:THE ARE OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 139.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 240018Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD, A STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE ENTRENCHED WESTERLY JET AT AROUND 20N. THE 200MB MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE JET REMAINING STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250500Z.//NNNN

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