Climate change could turn focus on Prairies for food production

A new report says a warming climate could harm the United States agricultural sector and move those opportunities north to the Prairies.

Photograph by: Don Healy
, Regina Leader-Post

BANFF — With an international report on climate change identifying the impact of warming temperatures on land and water, experts in prairie agriculture say the industry needs to adapt so it can help meet the global demand for food.A report, Moving Toward Prairie Agriculture 2050, was presented last week at the Alberta Institute of Agrologists annual conference in Banff, where they addressed issues affecting the Prairie province’s economy — particularly agriculture, food and the environment.

The so-called green paper, which relied on the work of 23 experts in their field, discusses the need for agriculture to respond to climate change.

“There will be a great global demand on the Prairies to produce as much food, energy and protein as it possibly can, because other parts of the world will not be able to,” said the report’s co-editor Karin Wittenberg, associate dean of research in the faculty of agriculture and food sciences at the University of Manitoba. “We’re not going to be meeting that demand sustainably if we don’t have this kind of thinking and dialogue happening today.”

Generally, the report says a warming climate could harm the United States agricultural sector and move those opportunities north to the Prairies.

It notes climate is only one factor, suggesting changes in policy, politics, trade, transportation and technology are key global drivers for the country’s agri-food sector. However, it suggests the industry does need to plan for climate change to be successful.

Temperatures are expected to increase in the Prairies provinces by 2050.

“The common theme we are working on is a general climate warming in the Prairies around two-to-three degrees, without really a change in precipitation on average,” said co-editor Brian Amiro, a professor in the department of soil science at the University of Manitoba. “That’s our projections for the Prairies.”

The Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change, which was released last week, said warming temperatures have already affected agriculture and water supplies.

It suggested crop patterns will need to change, due to disruptions to normal rain and snow patterns.

The report also noted that feeding the world will become more difficult and more expensive.

Amiro, also one of the authors of the agriculture report, said climate change could also affect food production on the Canadian Prairie Provinces, because warmer temperatures would allow bacteria and fungi to develop more quickly and could impact soil conditions.

“There are aspects like that, that could possibly be negative,” said Amiro. “On the plus side, some crop production will increase provided there is enough water for it.

“Water really is the key part that we have a lot of uncertainty over.”

His colleague, Wittenberg, agreed water is one of the central issues for agriculture.

“We’re very fortunate in terms of how much fresh water we have access to,” she said. “It’s not necessarily enough and it’s not necessarily coming at the right times, but the fact that we have access to it gives us huge opportunity that other parts of the world do not have.”

In addition, she said the Prairies provinces have a large land base.

The report notes changes in climate have the potential to increase or decrease the agricultural landbase, which currently occupies about seven per cent — with the Prairies accounting for 82 per cent of the total.

As a result, the report concludes adaptation will be important and suggested it will require a joint effort by academics, industry and governments.

Agrologists at the conference said the green paper provoked a lot of thought — ranging from the concerns over water, the ability to feed a growing population and the complexity of carbon.

Both the agriculture report and the international panel urged governments to start preparing to manage the effects of global warming.

In Alberta, the province is in the midst of updating its 2008 climate change strategy, which expires in September.

“It’s very important that we look at our greenhouse gas emissions,” Kate Rich, executive director of the air and climate change policy branch with Alberta Environment, told delegates at the conference. “We are well above the other provinces and territories in emissions and we are growing.”

She said the province is working to stabilize its emissions by 2020 and reduce them by 14 per cent by 2050.

In agricultural settings, Rich said there’s protocols related to tillage, renewable energy and offset credits — and others are under development as part of the updated strategy.

The government is also working on various risk assessments to adapt to climate change, she said.

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