Nuclear Poker with Iran

On New Year’s Day, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki issued an ultimatum to the West: Accept a swap of part of our 2-ton stockpile of low-enriched uranium for your higher-enriched uranium for our U.S.-built reactor, or we start enriching to 20 percent ourselves.

Though the White House is on the defensive for its initial nonchalant response to al-Qaeda’s attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day and has a need to show toughness, to dismiss Iran’s proposal out of hand may be a mistake.

For, bluster aside, this deal appears consistent with the twin U.S. goals: no nuclear-armed Iran, no war with Iran. Moreover, Iran’s take-it-or-leave-it deal is a variant on an idea first hatched by the White House — to offer Iran uranium that cannot be used for a bomb for the uranium Iran has been producing.

What would Iran give up? Part of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU), which if raised to weapons grade, would be sufficient for one or two nuclear devices.

What would Iran get? Fuel for a reactor that has been operating under U.N. safeguard and produces medical isotopes for the treatment of cancer and thyroid conditions. The reactor’s fuel runs out in 2010.

What would America gain? First, a reduction in Iran’s uranium stockpile. Second, we would confirm that when we say we have no wish to prevent Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear power, we mean it. Third, we would deal cards to those in Tehran who argue, "We can do business with Obama." Finally, the deal might put the United States and Iran on one of the last exit ramps before crippling sanctions lead to war.

Indeed, why change a policy that appears to be working?

Consider. Iran is today approaching regime crisis. Scores of thousands, unintimidated by the Basiji militia, have returned to the streets. Their demands have escalated from protesting a corrupt re-election of President Ahmadinejad to calls for the ouster of the Ayatollah and the overthrow of the Islamic regime.

While responding with brutality and threats of trials and death sentences, the regime has yet to go all-out for a Tiananmen Square solution.

Tehran knows that would destroy any lingering credibility it has. The Ayatollah Khamenei seems to be hesitant, uncertain as to whether to appease the resistance or crush it. For the demonstrators not only represent a huge slice of Iran’s educated young, they are likely to be Iran’s future, if Iran is to have a future as a modern nation.

While Obama has been savaged for not daily declaring solidarity with the resistance, his reticence may be the right stance.

White House declamations would be redundant. No one doubts whose side America is on.

Second, for President Obama to hail the demonstrators and denounce the regime would more likely contaminate the cause of the resistance than advance it.

It would be taken as confirmation of the regime’s charge that what is going on in the streets of Iran’s cities is a replay of the CIA rent-a-mob coup d’etat that took down nationalist Premier Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953 and put the Shah on the throne.

And other developments are breaking our way.

According to Sunday’s New York Times, Iran’s production of low-enriched uranium at Natanz is running into problems. The number of operating centrifuges has fallen by 20 percent, to below 4,000. The centrifuges, based on first-generation technology, are breaking down. Others appear defective or sabotaged. There are reports that the low-enriched uranium at Natanz lacks the purity to be highly enriched.

Also, the U.S. revelation that Iran was constructing a secret nuclear-enrichment facility at a Revolutionary Guard base near the holy city of Qum has complicated Iran’s problems. Ahmadinejad opened it to U.N. inspectors, who found that it was months if not a year away from completion and capable of housing only 3,000 centrifuges.

Thus, it is either a small fallback production plant in case Natanz is bombed, or it was designed to convert the low-enriched uranium at Natanz into highly enriched weapons-grade uranium.

Iran’s problem now, if it is as hell-bent on building a bomb as U.S. and Israeli politicians insist, is this. Its major nuclear facilities — the U.S.-built reactor at Arak, the uranium production plant at Natanz, the unfinished Russian nuclear power plant at Bushehr and the unfinished facility at Qum — are under U.N. safeguards and inspections.

If Tehran is as close to a bomb as some insist, it would have to have an undiscovered uranium-production plant the size of Natanz and an undiscovered but operational plant like the one being built in Qum to produce the highly enriched uranium needed.

If Iran has such facilities, U.S. intelligence agencies would not be standing by their joint assessment of 2007 that Iran ended its active program for a nuclear weapon back in 2003.

Right now, the cards are falling our way in Iran. Why toss in our hand for sanctions that lead — to where?

Author: Patrick J. Buchanan

More common sense from the finest and bravest columnist in America. I know it will be rejected as it makes too much sense. Sanctions are an act of war that accomplishes nothing. Obama under complete control of his handlers like Emmanuel, Holbrooke, Clinton, and Axelrod will do anything the Israeli lobby wants, in the end.

Why? We all know why, israhell controls americas foreign policy and the retarded lunatics that run that "country" feed off of dead american soldiers for their asinine chosen ones agenda to create greater israhell. Either they know there are no threats but are so predisposed to nurturing their "victim" image, or the rulers are completely inept with an iq no higher than a turnip that truly believe the nonsense they spout about iran or anyone else being a threat to their existence.

jojo

Pure nonsence Pat–and you should know better "response to al-Qaeda’s attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas "
–FYI: Patrick wise-up–there is no such terrorists as Al-Qaedia (means open base toilet) and the guy was drugged and was a CIA/ MOSSAD amaturish gone bad operation.
Pattie cake likes to put the boots to Iran — FYI: Iran is "NOT"approaching regime crisis.
Really Pattie Cake, you have the gul to write this garbage—" Scores of thousands, unintimidated by the Basiji militia, . Their demands have escalated from protesting a corrupt re-election of President Ahmadinejad ".
To bad America hasn't any politician as smart and non-corrupt as Ahmadinejad :^/

The trouble with Pat, is that he too is a true believer in "America is Wonderful".. Now and then, he gets a glimpse behind the curtain… But mostly he is out in the audience watching the show with the kids… Pat is that dying breed a conservative.. He tries to avoid the backstage where the votes get bought, where the arms gets twisted, where the contracts are awarded… He is like the neocons mascot that barks at strangers & gays.. I love Pat when he is keeping America honest, fiscally responsible and morally true. I love Pat when he revers the constitution, but when he gives a wink and a nod to the excesses of the military/industrial complex that funds all the "conservative Tanks" And his recent call to with-hold pain medication from the Christmas Bomber as he seemed to be totally oblivious to the screaming false flag aspect of the incident… To Kurt Haskell the HERO of this incident has the FBI change it's story FIVE TIMES…and the whole issue of the "Indian" enabler of the hapless patsy failure.. Where IS that tape of the security lapse in Amsterdam..?? We are being deceived and manipulated by someone is this incident, but hey don't think about that. Yaa cause we are the god guyz, and they are Evil…!!! Meanwhile we kill a million for oil Israel by lies and throw out the Geneva convention… But , hey we are the good guys.. I'm sure G-d must be on our side……

Agreed. This article is rather light and aims to show Washington the silliness of playing tough with Iran. For the rest of us of course, there's no game to be played with Iran. And in my view, real conservatives shouldn't play along with the agenda set by neo-cons. We need to develop our own agenda. But we're always trailing behind. Some neo-cons whine about Iran, everyone else writes scores of articles about Iran. Now it's Yemen, so everyone talks about that. These detailed expositions of what Iran is doing with every one of its facilities is beside the point and are of no interest to neo-cons who would have bombed Iran long time ago.

Pat might be expressing his honest thoughts, yet he is repeating the same biassed propaganda of the discredited neo-cons. Quite a few of his info are not right (US built reactor in Arak?) and his assertions on the election and protest demonstrations are superficial and ignore the recent complex interferences of the foreign countries in Iran.

If he Googles “ effort to destabilize Iran ” he will get, among some trash, many credible, interesting (if not shocking) revelations.

Regardless, as an amateur student of the Iranian issues, I agree with his conclusion, simply because I consider dropping of bombs or unnecessary crippling sanctions (such as the pre 2003 Iraq case) are barbaric acts, acts that no one with a clear conscience can approve..

The past records of IRI are appalling , yet, in the recent years I have been witnessing the unfair and unjust treatment of Iran by its determined enemies.

It is hard to stay silent watching those bloody plots in progress. We have to stop another unnecessary war…another heinous crime just to satisfy the goals of a few psychotic entities.

American TFT and WOP polls, match very closely with the results published by Iranian Interior Ministry. Software for Head-Counts from demonstration photos prove, except in Tehran, Ahmadinejad attracted way more Flock than the opposition (According to the official election results Ahmadinejad lost in provinces of Tehran and Baluchestan).

Even ignoring a few Anti-Empire scholars who firmly believe there exists no authenticated proof of significant fraud in the election, the respected sources such as Leverett couples convincingly express the same conclusion.

Pat, many trust you and listen to you. Please, don’t fall in the dirty bloody trap of neo-cons. They are harming themselves and others because their vision is poisoned by racism, self-righteousness and hegemony….and they are determined to mercilessly annihilate anyone who dares to stand on their way.

Pat, do you know Kenneth Timmerman before the election mistakenly spilled the beans on the “Green Color for Iran”. (Understandably that illustrious significant post was (quickly?) deleted and can not be accessed on the Internet anymore) However a small part of it can be read here:

twf.org/News/Y2009/0621-Election.html

The plot to further de-legitimize and demonize the regime was concocted outside Iran using the occasion of the election. It must have been a cooperative extensive plot . The universal well-coordinated false trumpeting of “egregious widespread election fraud” by neo-cons, their stooges, Internet, and their corrupt media is a compelling proof of the existence of such plot.

Also ask yourself why Ari Ben Menashe, in “Profits of war” implies Mousavi’s friend was a CIA agent? Is such an allegation important? Does all the pieces of puzzle fall in place neatly and nicely?

Isn’t all that worth a professional impartial research? It might open a huge can of bloody worms.