“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. – J Robert Oppenheimer.

There were an estimated 24,300 excess winter deaths (EWDs) in England and Wales in the 2015/16 winter period. This represents an excess winter mortality index of 15%; that is 15% more deaths occurred in winter compared to the non-winter months. The number of EWDs has almost halved since the 2014/15 period and is closer to the 5-year average (years 2011/12 to 2015/16) as shown in Figure 1.

Excess winter deaths in 2015/16 were back in line with average trends. The large decrease in EWD from 2014/15 to 2015/16 can largely be explained by the higher than average number of EWDs in 2014/15 rather than unusually low EWDs in 2015/16. It can also, in part, be explained by a different predominant strain of the influenza virus that had a reduced effect on the elderly in 2015/16, with impact mainly seen in young adults (Public Health England, 2016).

Large fluctuation in EWDs is common and trends over time are not smooth. To provide a clear trend over time and to smooth out short-term fluctuations in EWDs a 5-year moving average is calculated and shown in Figure 1. There has been a steady decrease in EWDs since the 1950/51 winter period that has leveled off in recent years. Moreover, it appears that the higher than usual EWDs in 2014/15 were not the start of an upward trend in EWDs but instead a fluctuation in the time series.

The number of deaths in the winter of 2014/15 was unusually high because the predominant influenza virus that year particularly affected the elderly. I also understand that it had not been anticipated when vaccination stocks were being built up.

The monthly breakdown shows that daily deaths are always lowest between June and September.

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You have to be a tad careful on these. There is a relationship between winter temps and excess winter deaths, but it’s a weak one. The asymptotic decline in excess deaths is due to various social and medical improvements unrelated to temperature. The deaths are often only indirectly linked to temperature (e.g. via flu and complications). Hypothermia might be a by-product of expensive heating.

I have theorized that with colder weather folks exude more bodily fluids (runny nose, sneezing, coughing) in lower temperatures (as a respiratory reaction to the colder, drier air) and spread those fluids on common surfaces: doorknobs, counter tops, credit card signing styluses, etc. Then the world’s most prolific disease-spreading mechanism (the human hand) delivers the pathogen to its next host.

A corollary of that is our autumn-winter-spring school cycle. We put our hygiene-undisciplined progeny together in close quarters, and they efficiently serve as Petri dishes for the pathogens bringing them into the home.

Yes Jit – caution with all causation both hot and cold is sensible, after all it is science we are looking at – if only some alarmists could do the same it would be great.

BUT I don’t think anyone can argue with the premise that future cooling would kill more than future warming, especially away from the cosy parts of the first world. Unfortunately the MSM doesn’t report cold deaths, it doesn’t fit their world-view.

One simple example – try researching deaths in the Andes this last three or four winters, but don’t bother to waste your time with the newpaper archives. If people die of the heat it is big news, if they die of the cold……………………………

It is only ever too warm for some people, so you see lots of current articles about parts of the Arctic or the UK – but not so much about century long cold/snow records in Canada and the Northern USA, also parts of Russia and Siberia as well China and SE Asia. Recent days has seen snow in the Sahara for the first time in half-a-century – I bet that has been all over the Graun.

None of the hundreds of cold/snowy events of the last few winters (SH and NH) disprove AGW, so why don’t they get reported much. Answer on the usual postcard please….