There’s No Shame in ReRAM

Intel and Micron say they've developed a new class of memory technology, but there's more talk about all of the things 3D XPoint memory might be able to do, and little detail of what it actually is. Speculation is inevitable.

I could do with a little less flash in my memory announcements.

Yesterday, Intel and Micron announced what they claimed was a new class of memory, and that’s not something that happens very often. In fact, company execs are saying their jointly developed 3D XPoint technology is the first new class of memory since the introduction of NAND flash 25 years ago, and that it offers non-volatile memory speeds up to 1,000 times faster while being eight to 10 times denser than DRAM.

But it’s not clear just what 3D XPoint memory is. As reported by Peter Clarke, Intel and Micron execs disclosed few details about the material system or switching mechanism, only saying that the switching mechanism is via changes in resistance of the bulk material and that the companies had "invented unique material compounds" to create the 3D XPoint memory.

Intel and Micron spent just as much time talking about the explosion of connected devices and digital services is generating massive amounts of new data, and that to make this data useful, it must be stored and analyzed very quickly.

When has there not been an explosion of data? I have been writing about technology for nearly two decades now, and there’s always been too much data. All that’s changed is the discussion of where and how it’s going be stored. The SAN vs. NAS debate has given way to hard disk vs. SSD and how much goes in the cloud.

Micron and Intel also talked about how 3D XPoint memory addresses the challenge of the reducing time it takes the processor to reach data on long-term storage by allowing for quick access to enormous data sets, as well the benefits for gamers who want slower loading times. But this goal is by no means a new one either.

While there is always some level of hyperbole in the semiconductor industry — any SSD announcement nowadays is all about how many writes per day it can handle — the joint announcement from Intel and Micron sounds more like the unveiling of a consumer product, like a new smartphone. There was more emphasis on the wow factor, and not enough detail on how the new memory actually works, which is what those who follow the memory industry truly want.

Earlier this year, an article I wrote on Samsung’s new ePOP was put under the microscope by several readers who were looking for more substance. While I did follow up with Samsung to try flesh out how the technology achieved what it claimed, the company wouldn’t divulge how it prevented NAND memory from getting hotter than the temperature range that can cause a malfunction.

Ultimately, the unwillingness of Intel and Micron to lift the hood on this new memory technology makes it ripe for speculation. Is it perhaps a resistive RAM (ReRAM) with an in-built select diode allowing for a dense device structure? EE Times commenters are already trying to parse what little information has been revealed. Perhaps a twist on phase change memory (PCM)? (For those of you looking for deep dive into a memory technology, be sure to check out Ron Neale’s latest blog on IBM’s novel approach to PCM. It’s part one of two, with the second half set to go online at the end of the week).

Jim Handy, principal analyst with Objective Analysis, was on-site for the announcement, and as a result, had access to a second question and answer session with Intel and Micron technology staff. When he asked what memory technology 3D XPoint was closest to, he was told there was no technology as mature as this one. “They are not lifting the covers on this."

Intel and Micron are sticking to the narrative that 3D Xpoint is like nothing that has been seen before, said Handy. “Based on what little they have disclosed, we are going to have to take their word for it."

Despite the secrecy, Handy said 3D Xpoint memory is worth noting, but not groundbreaking enough to wake people up in the middle of the night. Alternative memory technologies are generally seeking to replace DRAM or NAND flash, whereas Intel and Micron say their new memory occupies its own spot, and does not change Micron’s 3D NAND roadmap. “There's certainly a place for it in the memory hierarchy," said Handy.

But so what if 3D Xpoint is really a bulk switching ReRAM or variation of PCM? Figuring a new way to use an existing technology is just as innovative as coming up with a new one, and it would be more interesting to hear about how ReRAM or PCM have been re-engineered to do what Intel and Micron say 3D Xpoint will do rather than just allude to some secret ingredients and processes that are entirely new.

Without further details from Intel or Micron, there’s likely to be some skepticism until products based on 3D Xpoint are actually hitting the market, and frequent assumptions that it is just a rift on an existing memory technology until it’s shown otherwise.

If you pay enough attention you will realize that the Aurora supercomputer that Intel just won with the DOE may well be the first system that uses this new memory technology. They clearly hinted that it will use an "unnamed Intel developed non-volatile memory solution". Perhaps that was one of the main selling points and Intel has named that technology as well.

This is how Intel operates , the funniest i've seen so far is when they announced some smart earbuds and they claimed that "The Intel smart earbuds harvest energy from the smartphone" , except the thing is wired. Sure they had to deal with a few complications but you can't just expand the definition of harvesting to pretty much anything plugged in an outlet.

Anyway, it's better for marketing and IR if they take more credit than they should and disclose misleading numbers that are technicaly accurate. It is a big deal that they'll have production maybe 5 years before others were planning to.

How they talk about applications is in part marketing and in part about strategy. They talk about medicine and cool things ,it's fashionable but it's also a matter of strategy. They will likely just go for high end enterprise at first and no idea if price per GB for such a SSD will be 4$ or 10$, they'll go as high as they can but it's clear that they won't get anywhere close to NAND prices, not because they can't but because they can afford not to. Maybe costs are 2x vs 3D NAND excluding yields, maybe 4 times, haven't even seen anyone count the dies on the displayed wafer to estimate die size yet. Hard to say for now if it could race with 3D NAND in costs , while factoring in process and numbers of layers but they really have no reason to do that. This 1 facility at 20k wafer starts per month and good yields (with Intel taking half the output) could double Micron's income. So no point in pushing prices down too fast, they can just maximize profits and scale volumes slowly. Maybe gen 2-3 ,with more layers, will get to 1$/GB and start to show up in high end phones, or even sooner at higher prices but just 4-8GB per device and less RAM for power savings.

It kinda is a huge deal but it looks like it will take a while before prices will be allowed low enough for the product to reach a wider market. That's good for them, less so for consumers.

This also puts that Chinese offer for Micron in difficulty. The memory business is always at risk of a supply/demand imbalance and that has lead to a very low valuation for Micron. Having this MRAM (Marketing RAM) changes the dynamic since others seem unlikely to have a competing product soon. Remains to be seen if this doubles Micron's valuation and a sale to China goes from unlikely to impossible.