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The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama

Libertarian — or fiscally conservative, socially liberal
— voters are often torn between their aversions to the
Republicans’ social conservatism and the Democrats’ fiscal
irresponsibility. Yet libertarians rarely factor into pundits’ and
pollsters’ analyses.

In 2004 libertarians swung away from Bush, anticipating the
Democratic victories of 2006. In 2008, according to new data in
this paper, libertarians voted against Barack Obama. Libertarians
seem to be a lead indicator of trends in centrist,
independent-minded voters. If libertarians continue to lead the
independents away from Obama, Democrats will lose 2010 midterm
elections they would otherwise win.

We find that 14 percent of American voters can be classified as
libertarian. Other surveys find a larger number of people who hold
views that are neither consistently liberal nor conservative but
are best described as libertarian. A 2009 Gallup poll found that 23
percent held libertarian views. A Zogby poll found that 59 percent
considered themselves “fiscally conservative and socially liberal,”
and 44 percent agreed that they were “fiscally conservative and
socially liberal, also known as libertarian.”

Libertarians shifted back to the Republican column in 2008,
supporting John McCain over Barack Obama by 71 to 27 percent.
Although many libertarian intellectuals had a real antipathy to
McCain, the typical libertarian voter saw McCain as an independent,
straight-talking maverick who was a strong opponent of earmarks and
pork-barrel spending and never talked about social issues. Also,
the prospect of a Democratic president working with a Democratic
majority in Congress at the height of a financial crisis scared
libertarian voters.

Younger libertarians were more supportive of Obama. Pro-life
libertarians are more Republican than pro-choice libertarians.

Few of the voters we describe as libertarian identify themselves
as such. But the Ron Paul campaign and the burgeoning opposition to
President Obama’s big-government agenda suggest that
small-government voters may be easier to organize than they have
been in the past.