Analysis: Is there an epic GOP wave — or can Dems hang on?

Republicans could be riding an epic wave or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi might barely hold on to her House majority according to a welter of polls and analyses now out with less than a month to go to the election. In New York, Democrats have at least four House seats at risk, with Capital Region Rep. Scott Murphy among the GOP’s top targets.

Some summary results:

A Gallup poll shows a potentially fatal enthusiasm gap between conservatives and liberals among likely voters. A Pew poll shows Hispanics — the key to the Democratic majority — heavily favoring Dems but also disinclined to vote.

Under a low-turnout scenario, Republicans run away with the midterms. Right-leaning analyst Michael Barone, co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, said the Gallup results could deliver a GOP win that surpasses 1994’s 54-seat gain and goes all the way back to the Grover Cleveland presidency, when Republicans won more than 100 seats during the Depression of 1893.

That’s why President Obama has abandoned his “one-nation” appeals to centrists and taken to scolding liberals to buck up. Democrats have already lost moderates. Analysts at Third Way question whether there are enough liberals, however, to make this strategy work.

A Hill poll of 12 contested House seats by Mark Penn and Company, however, shows that Dems are not just blowing smoke when they say they can beat back this tide. Of the 12 seats, Reps are ahead in 11 and the 12th is tied. But none of the Republicans has even hit 50 percent and half of the leads are within the margin of error.

Rep. Mike Thompson, a Dem in a very safe California seat, said the Democrats have “stopped hemorrhaging” and he predicts they hold the House by three seats.

Two lines of Democratic attacks have gelled: Outsourcing (which unites unions and Tea Parties) and outrage over the flood of big business and even foreign money through outside groups to the GOP, thanks to the Citizens United Supreme Court ruling. That money could easily erase the Dem’s advantage in traditional fundraising. Meanwhile, the touted GOP Pledge to America is reportedly a flop on the campaign trail.