Bigger Picture: Open Cup Post-Mortem

Posted 21 September 2017 - 08:25 AM

NittanyMetros

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Each time we’ve been in a cup final and lost, it has been absolutely brutal and draining. For me, 03 took a really long time to get over because that one was at home and we played well. It hurt, bad. Last night really sucked and today is a day for people to vent over that fact. Sunshine brigade needs to chill for a day.

Cup final losses can either be a sign you’re heading in the right direction or a time for reflection and an opportunity to change course. I think this is clearly a case for the latter. We need to look at the whole picture as a club.

On ownership:
Investment in the first team with quality and proven players has been in decline for 3 years. Results in the league have declined, coinciding with the decline in investment. We have chosen to bring in young players – which is laudable – but we truly have not surrounded these guys with proven, high quality talent that has a track record of winning. That is a direct result of Red Bull deciding that investment in New York’s first team is not a priority. They’d rather invest in youth and pilfer it for Leipzig + sprinkle in a few older players with marginal pedigrees. The hit rate on those players is 50/50 at best. That is a major disservice to us as a fan base and a net negative for NY Soccer as a whole. Youth investment is a pillar of a winning club, but it is not the only pillar. And youth investment alone has not been proven to be successful for consistently winning championships in MLS on it's own. The best teams have a mix...we don't right now.

We as a club are playing their system (high press), with their shoestring budget and their manager (they chose him over Curtis). We are not seeing the results after 3 years. We are seeing regression in the league and the same flaws in our system being exploited in elimination tournaments in the same exact ways that it has always been.

You all know my position by now on Red Bull as an owner and their off-the field issues. But the 12 year on-field track record speaks for itself…2 regular season championships, 2 cup finals, 0 cups. Color me woefully unimpressed compared to what we were expecting back in ‘06. Considering the breach of trust we’ve had to deal with from things like rebranding to rocky fan relations to broken promises for squad reinforcements and marketing…t’s time to go in a new direction, and as a fan you should demand that. We deserve nothing more than top priority. We don’t have that today. #RedBullOut every damn day.

On Marsch:
He made a power play in the off-season. He threatened to use Red Bull’s corporate synergy to his advantage and take the Salburg job, then got what he wanted (full control) at a point where it was too late to reinforce the squad. This off-season was a disgrace from preseason training/planning to squad building, and that falls squarely on him.

His squad is thin. I don’t know how much of that is his fault, but this is what we got. And the results themselves have been woeful. We made a mini run in the Open Cup with a really favorable draw, but the flaws of his squad and this system were once again exposed in a major way. Our form has tanked over the past 6 weeks.

The biggest indictment on his managing has been squad selection and the tendency for his squad to disappear and shrink away from big moments. The defensive lapses have not been fixed as shown by that free header from an innocuous cross in the 6 yard box, or the backline completely losing their mark on a counter. We have seen these things exposed over and over and over again in knockout competitions with him as manager. Further, his personal issue with Gonzalo Veron is actively harming this team. Veron has been one of our most productive players in limited time for 3 months now. That he isn’t getting major run is fucking shameful. At some point the issue runs deeper than the players…this is one of those times.

The Players
I think this squad is limited, but ultimately having the mental fortitude to get it done is as much a function of the players as it is the coach. We’ve seen Sacha disappear in big moments for years. I think it’s time to unload him and get a new attacking mid in the offseason.
The less we say about our back line depth, the better. Murillo and Escobar are promising, but both are on loan and both still have some major growing pains we’re dealing with. Long has hit the rookie wall. The biggest issue is the major drop off between these guys and Zizzo/Perinelle. Baah is an unknown, we have no idea if he can be relied on. Collin’s injuries are concerning. We have some major, major squad flaws right now.

Think it’s time to head in a new direction in a lot of different areas. Three years is long enough to evaluate whether a plan is working our not. Based on what I've seen so far, it's not.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 08:44 AM

Think it’s time to head in a new direction in a lot of different areas. Three years is long enough to evaluate whether a plan is working our not. Based on what I've seen so far, it's not.

Year 1 - Win the Supporters' Shield and get knocked out in the second (full) round of the playoffs.

Year 2 - Finish first Place Eastern Conference and get knocked out in the first (full) round of the playoffs.

Year 3 - Make the playoffs(?) and probably have to go to Atlanta for the play-in match (that will be against a much tougher opponent than SKC and we'll be huge underdogs in).

Team has gotten worse every year since we've gone in this new direction. I don't know if it's the system as much as if it's the players Marsch selects to play in it. I don't think we have the right players and on top of that he often choses poorly from what he does have to select from.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 08:51 AM

Year 1 - Win the Supporters' Shield and get knocked out in the second (full) round of the playoffs.

Year 2 - Finish first Place Eastern Conference and get knocked out in the first (full) round of the playoffs.

Year 3 - Make the playoffs(?) and probably have to go to Atlanta for the play-in match (that will be against a much tougher opponent than SKC and we'll be huge underdogs in).

Team has gotten worse every year since we've gone in this new direction. I don't know if it's the system as much as if it's the players Marsch selects to play in it. I don't think we have the right players and on top of that he often choses poorly from what he does have to select from.

I think it's both.

My bigger issue is we're going in this direction and getting almost zero net benefit from the Red Bull youth system globally to do it. It's not like we're getting promising young talent from Leipzig to run this. We're running the system on a shoestring budget.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 09:16 AM

McSoccer

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I think it's both.

My bigger issue is we're going in this direction and getting almost zero net benefit from the Red Bull youth system globally to do it. It's not like we're getting promising young talent from Leipzig to run this. We're running the system on a shoestring budget.

Yep. Atlanta is showing you can play an aggressive pressing style and go the youth route, IF you get HIGH QUALITY (and more expensive) young players like Martinez and Almiron. That's NOT what we're doing.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 09:33 AM

NittanyMetros

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Yep. Atlanta is showing you can play an aggressive pressing style and go the youth route, IF you get HIGH QUALITY (and more expensive) young players like Martinez and Almiron. That's NOT what we're doing.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 10:53 AM

iced1776

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Biggest failure for my money has been scouting attacking talent to help BWP and Klejstan. If we continue to spend the minimum on DPs going forward it'll be trouble, but there's really no arguing that those two have given as much as you could possibly hope for.

But the supporting cast since Grella and Sam declined post-2015? Yikes... revolving door of RB cast-offs (Damari/Gulbrandsen), a DP that's been here 3 years and is only effective as a backup to BWP (Veron), and some role players who aren't the type to take the game on their shoulders (Royer/Davis/Muyl). Royer comes close to offering what we need, but his production is pretty wildly inflated by penalties and some tap-ins. I still haven't seen enough from him to put him on the level of 2015 Grella/Sam.

Ownership doesn't need money to find those players, they just need to spend some actual time and effort on it.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 11:33 AM

McSoccer

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Biggest failure for my money has been scouting attacking talent to help BWP and Klejstan. If we continue to spend the minimum on DPs going forward it'll be trouble, but there's really no arguing that those two have given as much as you could possibly hope for.

But the supporting cast since Grella and Sam declined post-2015? Yikes... revolving door of RB cast-offs (Damari/Gulbrandsen), a DP that's been here 3 years and is only effective as a backup to BWP (Veron), and some role players who aren't the type to take the game on their shoulders (Royer/Davis/Muyl). Royer comes close to offering what we need, but his production is pretty wildly inflated by penalties and some tap-ins. I still haven't seen enough from him to put him on the level of 2015 Grella/Sam.

Ownership doesn't need money to find those players, they just need to spend some actual time and effort on it.

Yea, they needed to bring in wingers. Instead they kept bringing players (Damari, Gulbrandsen) that played the same position as BWP and Marsch is going to play BWP for 90 minutes every game he possibly can. Which is fine, because BWP is great. We needed attacking players that could be on the pitch at the same time as Sacha and BWP and that meant wingers.

It's hard to find wingers for Marsch. He values defensive effort more than offensive skills. No reason Gulbrandsen couldn't have seen minutes over Muyl at winger when he was here, he had the speed. Royer seems to be the right type of two-way player.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:06 PM

arisrules

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A couple of things come to mind and not all that coherent:

- the biggest mistake over the past years was on the backline post-Miazga, which was the weakest part of our team last year and is the same this year. Since the start of this season I have been saying that we needed to flesh out that backline. For example, this is a completely different team with a healthy Colin;

- I do think we have pieces to work with next year though, as Escobar, Murrilo, Long, Baah, should form a pretty decent young and athletic core;

- Marsch was never able to properly complement BWP and Sacha with a third attacking element that worked with them;

- I personally think Veron should be getting more minutes, but he's not really a good fit mostly because BWP is a loner up top, and we don't play a 4-3-3 where Veron could be high up the field on the left to make his strong runs;

- the injury to Royer both this year and last year down the stretch really ruined our momentum. I think we beat Montreal with Royer, simply due to his ability to flare out wide (he's the only freaking attacking player we have who likes to play wide, everybody else pinches inwards, including Grella);

- What we do with the midfield nexst year is beyond me. It's been reported that RBNY actively pursued trades of Sacha, Dax, and Felipe this past off-season;

- a Felipe and Adams fulcrum next season would be exciting, especially because Adams evolved into a class player;

- Sacha can play, but we've seen how this season he's had long stretches where he just didn't impact the game that much;

- I don't mind Marsch focusing on process as I think in a league like MLS where there is so much parity, a strong identity/system makes the difference;

- I don't get how you make that Dax trade without really knowing what direction you were going in; and

- it's amazing how poorly the national media from mlssoccer to Twellman analyze this team. Twellman last night was talking about a new identity and the three times he watched them thi syear, but didn't mention how much our tactics changed over the season. Nobody at the start of the season for example looked at why our set piece play was so poor. A lot of it was driven by a yearning to push the narrative that Dax's loss was why the team sucked (meanwhile anybody who watched last year knew that the 2016 DAx was not the 2015 Dax, although he's been good this year).

The bigger question is what does our lineup look like with a healthy lineup down the stretch, and I think something like this would be ideal:

The main lesson for me from these difficult one-off matches has been the importance of spreading the field to allow BWP/Kleijstan to operate. We saw it last night immediately once Veron came on and toed the left line. The space opened up in the center, and we were much more dynamic going forward. Davis and Muyl (and Grella) all drift inside into the space where Kleijstan operates, and where Felipe pushes into. I also just do not get what they bring in those roles within this lineup. Marsch said he switched toa 3-6-1 partially to give Davis a role. But why? Davis' game is predicated on the deep game. Muyl brings workrate, but so does Royer and frankly Veron (first play Veron made was to strip somebody of the ball last night).

I think Veron has earned the right to be a starter at this point. Royer was our best player for a month or so. On the backiline the big question is will Colin be healthy? This team is just so much better when he's healthy. If not then we need to figure out if Kemar or Murillo are the best options as CB, but Long time and again has been caught as the CCB in a 3-man backline (remember how poor he was against NYCFC at Yankee Stadium?).

I know we are all bummed, but for me this team can be dangerous in the playoffs. There is enough there, and I do think the Keita/Escobar signings have added depth to this group.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 12:59 PM

ElTriMetro

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Yep. Atlanta is showing you can play an aggressive pressing style and go the youth route, IF you get HIGH QUALITY (and more expensive) young players like Martinez and Almiron. That's NOT what we're doing.

Posted 21 September 2017 - 10:02 PM

Clearly, disposing of Ali Curtis was a poor decision from RBNY, but they get to make the choices and we have to either live with it or find another team.

I personally have responded to Red Bull's budget cuts by cutting my spending on the team. Capitalism is a two way street and I decided to exercise that power. Other people may feel differently, which is their right, of course.

Maybe Red Bull will see that their current methods aren't working and they will choose to invest more. Maybe they don't care, now that they have Leipzig. Either way, I don't really have a say in what they decide to do, so I'm not going to get all that upset about it. I'll just keep watching games until it's not fun anymore.

Loyal supporter of the 2013 and 2015 MLS Champions: RBNY/Metro
Loyal supporter of the 2017 MLS Cup Co-Champions: RBNY/Metro
RBNY II aka "The Baby Bulls" are the 2016 USL Cup Champions!
Playoffs are stupid in soccer and I don't care if that hurts your feelings.

Posted 22 September 2017 - 07:19 AM

Clearly, disposing of Ali Curtis was a poor decision from RBNY, but they get to make the choices and we have to either live with it or find another team.

I personally have responded to Red Bull's budget cuts by cutting my spending on the team. Capitalism is a two way street and I decided to exercise that power. Other people may feel differently, which is their right, of course.

Maybe Red Bull will see that their current methods aren't working and they will choose to invest more. Maybe they don't care, now that they have Leipzig. Either way, I don't really have a say in what they decide to do, so I'm not going to get all that upset about it. I'll just keep watching games until it's not fun anymore.

Exactly. All we really have is the power of the purse string...... I am doing the same.

Posted 22 September 2017 - 08:38 AM

Clearly, disposing of Ali Curtis was a poor decision from RBNY, but they get to make the choices and we have to either live with it or find another team.

I personally have responded to Red Bull's budget cuts by cutting my spending on the team. Capitalism is a two way street and I decided to exercise that power. Other people may feel differently, which is their right, of course.

Maybe Red Bull will see that their current methods aren't working and they will choose to invest more. Maybe they don't care, now that they have Leipzig. Either way, I don't really have a say in what they decide to do, so I'm not going to get all that upset about it. I'll just keep watching games until it's not fun anymore.