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Friday, December 18, 2015

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 7 - 17, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russia
continues to use disinformation to present its air campaign as a
constructive force in Syria ahead of the next wave of talks on the
Syrian conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed to
provide air support to elements of the Free Syrian Army in
an effort to “unite” the various efforts of regime and “other groups”
in Syria on December 15. Alleged recipients of Russian air support
include the “Desert Lions” and “the Democratic Forces,” likely a
reference to the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently
operating in Aleppo and Hasaka Provinces. The Russian MoD claimed its first airstrikes in Hasaka Province on
December 16. However, local reporting has not yet substantiated these
claims and, thus, ISW does not assess them at even a level of Low
Confidence at this time. Russian warplanes meanwhile continued to
indiscriminately target rebel-held areas in northwestern Syria, which
are home to both hardline and “moderate” FSA-affiliated rebel factions
from December 13-17. The Russian air campaign continued its efforts to
weaken the Syrian opposition as airstrikes concentrated along rebel
front lines with the regime, ISIS, and Kurdish YPG forces in Damascus,
Hama, Latakia, and Aleppo Provinces. Russian warplanes also continued to
conduct a limited number of strikes against ISIS targets west of the
Euphrates as regime forces continued to clear ISIS-held terrain near the Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City.

The
following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist
networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western
officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air
campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports
corroborated both by official government statements reported through
credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist
networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary
sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain
disinformation.