United Conservative Party would win majority in Alberta: poll

Alberta’s newly minted United Conservative Party would win a majority government if a provincial election were held today, just over a week after a merger vote united Alberta’s two right-leaning political parties, a new poll says.

Fifty-seven per cent of the 2,100 Alberta voters polled said they would vote for, or would consider voting for, the UCP under interim leader Nathan Cooper, Ottawa-based Mainstreet Research said Tuesday. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.14, 19 times out of 20.

Support for current Alberta Premier Rachel Notley’s New Democrats sits at 29 per cent, up five per cent from April.

“With intense media attention being paid to both the recent PC leadership contest and the unity votes, the immediate reaction of Alberta voters appears to be favourable to the UCP and points to a likely majority government for the new party,” the poll reads.

“These numbers do not, however, point to a complete blowout of the ruling NDP.”

The governing NDP continues to hold strong support the Edmonton, the provincial capital nicknamed ‘Redmonton’ over the years because of its traditionally left-leaning electorate.

The poll found the NDP continues to have an eight-point lead over the UCP with Edmonton voters. “With continued strength in Edmonton, the 21 seat sweep that the NDP saw in the 2015 election could be repeated in 2019.”

It’s a different story in Calgary, where the governing party trails 18 points (32 per cent) behind the United Conservative Party (50 per cent.) “In Calgary, it is unlikely that the NDP could hold all the gains made in 2015, but some held seats could remain competitive,” the poll says.

The most obvious NDP polling losses are in rural ridings outside the province’s two major population centres. More than two-thirds of Albertans living outside of Edmonton and Calgary reported they would choose the merged Conservative party over the NDP. Only 20 per cent of those polled in non-urban ridings said they would vote for the NDP.

The Alberta NDP won 55 of the province’s 87 seats in the May 2015 election — a majority victory that dismantled the Alberta Conservatives’ 44-year political reign in Alberta.

Alberta PCs and Wildrose members voted overwhelming in favour of a merger July 22. The party’s two respective former leaders, Jason Kenney and Brian Jean, have said they will run for the leadership of the United Conservative Party. Kenney and Jean are former federal Conservative MPs.