Mailbag: Albert Pujols

Dave asks: Now that Pujols has given the Cards an ultimatum regarding his contract, can we start imagining him with NYY? Who’s a better 1B – he or Teix? Didn’t he used to play other positions? Couldn’t he handle one of the outfield corners, or perhaps share 3B/DH with A-Rod (keeping both fresher)?

We’ve already gotten a swarm of emails about the possibility of Albert Pujols joining the Yankees in the next year or so, and those emails don’t figure to stop anytime soon. This post is going to serve as our default answer to that question barring any significant changes to the situation, so I suggest bookmarking it.

The idea of Pujols in pinstripes is drool-worthy. He’s the best player in the game and the most devastating hitter on the planet, and he’ll hit the free agent market at essentially age 32 (his birthday was a week or two ago, so at the start of the 2012 season he’ll be 32). He should still have a few seasons of super-elite production ahead of him, and even once he starts to slip, Pujols will still be one of the game’s best. But we’ve seen this movie before.

Three seasons ago a 32-year-old Alex Rodriguez hit the free agent market after opting out of his contract. He was coming off an MVP-winning 2007 season, when he hit 54 homers with a .449 wOBA in 158 games. He owned a .416 wOBA and two MVP awards in his first four years as a Yankee, playing in no fewer than 154 games in each season. That production and his relatively young age led to the mammoth ten-year, $275M contract.

That contract is now the mother of all albatrosses. A-Rod hasn’t played in more than 138 games in any of the three seasons since signing it, and his production, while still fantastic, has slipped down to a .393 wOBA since then, including .363 in 2010. He needed hip surgery barely 18 months after signing the contract, an issue severe enough that it will need to be monitored for at least the next few seasons, if not the rest of his career. With seven-years and no less than $184M left on the contract, the Yankees need to hope that their third baseman avoids injury and remains productive to at least break even on the deal. Getting surplus value is pretty much out of the question now.

This is nothing against Alex, he’s a great player, it just goes to show the risk associated with giving gigantic contracts to 30-somethings. He had played in 154+ games every year from 2001 through 2006, but he’s visited this disabled list in each of the three seasons since, and that doesn’t include all the added rest needed for his hip. It just goes to show that no matter how durable a guy is, things can change quickly once they start to get up there in age.

(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Pujols is no different, and in fact he’s been battling an elbow issue for the last few years. He finally had surgery to correct it during the 2009-2010 offseason, but it still gave him trouble this past September. He might not get an A-Rod deal, but at the very least he’ll get Mark Teixeira‘s contract, and probably more since he’s just straight up better than Tex. Giving out another humongous contract to a guy in his 30’s is pretty much the last thing the Yanks need right now, especially if he’s not a pitcher.

And that’s the other thing too, what happens with Tex if you sign Pujols? You can’t trade him because a) he’s got a full no-trade clause, b) no other team is taking on that contract, and c) eating like, half the money left on it just for the sake of moving him is a terrible idea and a massive waste of resources. I guess you could use one guy at first and DH the other, but you’re then wasting one guy’s defensive skills, which the team is paying for and are excellent. You can’t move Tex back to third (moving A-Rod to DH) because he hasn’t played the position since 2003 and has a grand total of 99.2 big league innings there. Pujols has the elbow problems and has been a full-time first baseman since 2004, so moving him isn’t much of an option either.

I’d love love love to see Pujols in the middle of the Yankee lineup, with Robbie Cano batting ahead of him and A-Rod and Tex behind him, but it’s the definition of overkill. You’re going to compromise roster flexibility well into the future, tying up about $90M annually in THREE players (all corner infielders in their 30’s, too), and all for what amounts to a DH upgrade. I fully expect the Cardinals to re-sign Pujols at some point this calendar year, but even so I can’t imagine the Yankees getting involved. I’m certain his agent will bring them up just to drive up the price, but there’s just no fit. The Yankees can afford it, but that’s doesn’t mean it’s the wisest idea.

Sign and trade for Tex. Cards get Tex’s production on a 6 year deal for $120M + whatever he charges on his no-trade clause and Yanks get Pujols on a 10 year A-Rod-esque deal. That’s the only way it works. And that never happens.

If Jesus ever, even once, puts up an average Pujols season, we should all rejoice.

EndlessMike

Albert Pujols is great but he not that much differant from most 1 basemen out there thats why he won’t get as much as if he was a centerfielder or SS who could hit great. Pujols biggest knock is he doesn’t hit great in a difficult position. A-Rod got that big contract in 2000 and 2007 becuase no SS or 3B could hit like he does in that position. Most first basemen out there hit almost as good as Pujols does. Also A-Rod stole bases unlike Pujols and was great not good at defense.

We don’t need a another 30 aged hitter we need pitching.

http://twitter.com/steveh_MandAura Steve H

Most first basemen out there hit almost as good as Pujols does.

Except that’s not true.

http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

There have been seven seasons of 8+ bWAR by a 1B since 2003. All of them by Albert Pujols.

http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

damnit, looks like he played left field in 2003. Make that six and six.

http://twitter.com/steveh_MandAura Steve H

The 3 seasons he didn’t finish with 8+ he was 6th (as a 21 year old), 10th (as a 22 yo) and 1st in the league in bWAR.

Ed

Most first basemen out there hit almost as good as Pujols does.

If by “most first basemen” you mean “Lou Gehrig”, then yeah, most first basemen are similar hitters to Pujols.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

He could have worded that statement a little better, but let’s not pretend like we don’t understand the point he is making. Pujols is the best hitting 1B in the game the way A-Rod was the best hitting 3B/SS in the game when he received his last two contracts.

Relative to their positions, however, the gap between Pujols and the pack is significantly smaller than the gap from A-Rod to the pack was back in 2007 and 2001.

Slugger27

The gap is still monstrous, both from a production standpoint and health/consistency standpoint. Use war graphs with him and any 1st baseman of the past 2 decades. Its all u need to see

And those others you plotted are “the other great 1Bs in the game” not “most other 1B’s” and Albert trounces them all.

That said, not a fan of the slope of those curves!

hogsmog

The X axis isn’t time; the plot is organized from best season to worst season, so they’ll slope down by definition. I was a little freaked out at first, too.

RL (needs a new handle)

Wow! An average Pujols season appears equal to or better than the best season any of these others has put up and his worst season is about equal to their 2nd best! Never realized how much of a beast he truly is! Would like to see these numbers by year.

Ed

I know what he’s saying. He’s just wrong.

Yeah, 1B is a hitter’s position. But Pujols is one of the best hitters of all time. He’s right up there with Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Mantle, etc.

Pujols’s average season numbers are good enough that most Hall of Famers only approach them in their career years.

It’s a huge, huge step down from Pujols to the next best 1B.

The Real JobaWockeeZ

I don’t see a huge, huge, step down from Pujols to Votto.

http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

Agreed, but let’s see Votto do it for like 5 years

http://www.twitter.com/jordansmed JGS

Pujols has averaged 8.3 bWAR per season since 2001.

Since 2001, there have been twenty seasons of 8.3+ bWAR: Bret Boone, Jason Giambi, and Sammy Sosa did it in 2001; Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds in 2004; Magglio in 2007, and Joe Mauer in 2008 (not 2009. Go figure).

Only three players have done it more than once: A-rod did it in 2005 and 2007, Barry Bonds did it every year from 2001-2004 (He was over 10.3 each year, and thrice was over 12. Dude was good). The other six were all Pujols.

http://twitter.com/steveh_MandAura Steve H

In Votto’s 3rd season in the league as a 26 year old he just had a monster, MVP worthy year. He hit .324/.424/.600. Beastly. As a 21 year old rookie, Pujols hit .329/.403/.610.

In Pujols 10 year career, he has hit .331/.426/.624. So yeah, if Votto puts up at least 5 more years in a row like this year, he’ll be in Pujols’ class.

Preston

Come on now give Jimmie Foxx some love. Didn’t do it quite as good for quite as long but close enough. So now we’re up to two comparable player’s. I think that qualifies as “most first basemen”.

Slugger27

Oh come on… the dudes on a different planet from everyone in his era other than bonds… nobody is “similar”

Your last sentence, that I agree with

awy

elite offense at any position is still quite valuable. however, it is true that pujols would be a terrible fit for the yankees because of the high existing performance already in place. there are better ways to spend the money, provided that you spend it.

James

Some Average Seasons (per 162 games) From some of Baseball’s All-time Best hitters:

Now, based on pure “oh my god, holy shit this guy is amazing” statistics… and excluding Cobb for playing in the dead ball era, basically Pujols is 5th on this list in batting avg, 4th in homeruns, 6th in RBIs, 7th in obp, 4th in slugging and 5th in ops. This means that Albert Pujols is easily one of the 6 best hitters OF ALL TIME (based on this very small sample). I’ve been looking at his career stats for a long while now and he has now had the longevity to be mentioned in the same breath as these all-time greats. So in summary, Mark Teixeira is a very good player and maybe a hall of famer some day, but Albert Pujols is the best all-around hitter of this generation.

BavarianYankee

I don’t think Tex is untradeable. The Orioles and Nats would be interested imo and the Cards would need a 1B, too. Plus: the Soriano signing showed us that anything is possible, no matter how much sense it seemes to make. Levine will offer 20/1.000 and that gets the deal done XD

MikeD

On one level that’s true. The receiving team would be signing up for a managable five-year deal, as opposed to the original eight-year contract. If he has a Teix-like year in 2011, there would certainly be a number of teams interested in having a gold glove, switch-hitting power hitter at first, yet they would not be interested in paying “Yankee prices” for that player, no matter what the perceieved market will be for 1B’man based on what Pujols and A-Gon end up signing for post 2011. Even if Teixeira goes out and triple slashes at .290/.390/.590, teams will still recognize that his production will start decreasing in his age-32+ seasons, so the Yankees will have to offset a portion. I don’t think it would be half, but it could be a third to get the average annual down to about $15 million.

Yet at great as Pujols is, it wouldn’t be worth the additional production and years. Say Pujols signs for $30 million per for eight seasons. If he’s a free agent, he’s going for a new record, at least based on yearly average. Now tack on the additional estimated $7-million-per (could be more)to adjust Teix’s contract down for his new team. The Yankees will be paying $37 million a year for the first five years of Pujols’ contract, or about 65% more than they’re paying for Teix’s services.

And, btw, adding in the Yankee 40% luxury tax means the Yankees will be paying about $53 million a year to have Pujols on the team.

Pass.

http://twitter.com/steveh_MandAura Steve H

Pujols to the Yankees is like Jerry and George trying to find a way to pull off the “roommate switch”. No matter what you try and do, it’s not going to work out. Even when Jerry and George did work it out, it backfired.

Slugger27

I found a way for us to get bonds and griffey… and we wouldn’t have to give up that much!

Now we have a team!!

Ed

Pujols is no different, and in fact he’s been battling an elbow issue for the last few years. He finally had surgery to correct it during the 2009-2010 offseason, but it still gave him trouble this past September.

Pujols actually didn’t have surgery to fix the major elbow issue. He tore his UCL years ago, which led to his move to first base. He just couldn’t make the throws from the outfield anymore. His UCL is bad enough that he’d need Tommy John surgery if he was a pitcher, but still intact enough to let him play first as long as he can tolerate some pain.

I believe the surgery he had a year ago was actually to remove some bone chips – it was a relatively minor operation unrelated to his major problem.

The elbow is probably going to give out at some point, and then Pujols will miss a large chunk of time for Tommy John.

RobC

Tex to RF or LF?
How many time did Rose change positions?

http://twitter.com/steveh_MandAura Steve H

No.

It doesn’t matter. Tex is not Rose.

awy

“That production and his relatively young age led to the mammoth ten-year, $275M contract.”

you forgot the potent mix of yankees money and hank

I am not the droids you’re looking for

I don’t think it’s either far fetched OR a bad idea. While it would create a log jam, and there MAY* be better ways to spend the money, you figure those things out if you have a chance to get the best player in the game (see: Rod, A)

Look – we’d find a home for Tex, either Washington/Baltimore as has been brought up above, OR for “what amounts to an upgrade at DH” as per the post.

Given the track record of ownership, both long term and short, I think it’s borderline insane to believe that the Yankees won’t be in aggressively if Pujols comes to market.

* See Lee, Cliff. Having “better” places to spend money for larger incremental improvements is only a valid counter argument if guys, you know, actually take the money to come play here. They usually do. But not always.

Preston

Albert is older than Tex, and would want more years and money. We wouldn’t be able to get anything of value in a trade because of the enormity of the contract and we’d probably have to send a pile of money with it. I’m not saying that Pujols wouldn’t be an upgrade over Tex, but it isn’t a clear upgrade for the cost.

RL (needs a new handle)

there MAY* be better ways to spend the money, you figure those things out if you have a chance to get the best player in the game

and

* See Lee, Cliff. Having “better” places to spend money for larger incremental improvements is only a valid counter argument if guys, you know, actually take the money to come play here. They usually do. But not always.

Valid points. As insane as this sounds on the surface, it’s worth exploring. His age scares me a bit, but you still have to find out what it would take to get him if he becomes available.

(see: Rod, A)

I laughed.

Monteroisdinero

But getting back to our own version of Pujols;

We have the chance to have the most productive #9 hitter in baseball next year (Montero) and best leadoff hitter (Gardy).

Why is this so difficult to understand?

MikeD

November 2011

Brian Cashman — The Yankees are not in the market for a first baseman. Albert Pujols is a great player, but signing him would not be a proper use of the team’s financial resources, both shorterm and longterm, nor is giving up additional draft picks a good idea as we continue to build for the future. The Yankees are not in the Pujols market.

Hank Steinbrenner — I want him.

Pujols is a Yankee.

mike hc

To be fair, some of that arod contract was tied to all time homerun milestones, not just on field production.

Poopy Pants

Who is coming off the books for the Sox after 2011?
Would they have room to sign him? Ortiz will be gone, right (opening up the DH spot)?
Please say ‘no’.

Rick in Boston

Right now, with Gonzalez’s extension not yet signed, the Sox are on the books for $101 million in 2012. They need to replace JD Drew in right, need to probably get a catcher, Buchholz will be hitting his first arbitration, while Ellsbury will be at his third.

Theoretically, is it possible? Yes, but I’m guessing they’ll move Youkilis into the DH spot after he wears down too much from playing 3B on an everyday basis.

MikeD

Pujols would have to agree to be a DH, and I doubt that’s his goal. And if he is open to being a DH, then I’m sure that will cause the Yankees to step in.

twac00

Never say never when talking about a team taking on an albatross contract. After all, the Angels just traded for Vernon Wells and aren’t getting any money from the Jays.

Yanks take on the risk of Pujols in a contract year. Rasmus takes over in CF, Jorge/Montero platoon C, which frees up The DH spot. Pujols is Pujols let him dictate where him and Teixeira play (one 1B one DH).

Pujols is due $15.00 in 2011 which is about equal to Swish+Granderson combined. Cardinals payroll doesnt shoot up and they receive two All-Star caliber players, a top pitching prospect, and a reliever/starter/reliever that has a better shot rebounding in The NL than The AL…instead of The Cards having a fire sale and clearing out contracts (which the only ones they have over $5M are Holliday, Carpenter, Westbrook, Berkman..whom obviously FA cant be swapped before Pujols’ ‘spring break deadline’).

Pujols signs extension with NY. Where’s the $ coming from? Well $13.1 is magically freed up after Jorge Posada’s 2011 season. A-Rod drops from $31.00 in 2011 to $29.00 in 2012. (Plus $ saved on what would be raises due to Swisher & Granderson).

Another outlandish thing to thicken it. Yes Teixeira has a no trade clause, however that could be waived. That being said The Nationals blitzed hard for Teixeira in 2008 as a FA but couldnt match NYY’s $ offer. Does that mean Tex (from B-More) wouldnt want to play in DC? The piece said “nobody would eat that contract”, which normally I’d agree with however The Nationals seem to be on a spending frenzy and are in “win now” mode, hence the Jayson Werth deal. Is it super outlandish in Hypothetical Land: Teixieria for Strasburg and/or Harper? Strasburg was great but also got injured twice in 12 games, Harper is 17 years old. Yanks clear out payroll, Washington gets the player they wanted. Again .. all hypothetical and perhaps way way ‘out there’.

Tommy

Not that I think trading Teixeira at all is warranted (I’m sure many other teams’ fan bases would love to have this problem), but here’s my biggest issue: Who exactly plays RF for the Yankees in this scenario? You traded away two regular outfielders for one. Also, there is no “freeing up” of the DH spot, the Yankees specifically don’t want Posada catching even as much as half of the season.

Fantasy Cashman

@Tommy

Cashman just gave Andruw Jones a $2M deal. There’s an emergency backup RF option there. As aforementioned above: If Arizona is willing to part with Justin Upton for Nova/Laird/Sanchez or a package resembling that, than there’s your All-Star caliber RF’er with a lowball (for Yanks at least) contract.

“Freeing up DH Spot” comment regading Posada that you commented on.

As much as I enjoy a bunch of guys yelling “hip hip Jorge” in my ear all season … in 2011 Jorge Posada at $13.1M is a waste for NY, thats just how it is. Its nothing personal on the guy or to disregard anything he’s done for the team over the years, but reality is .. its 2011 and when you got guys like Manny Ramirez signing DH deals for $2M, paying Jorge $13.1 …it…it is what it is. He has a No Trade Clause and the only even OUT THERE trade scenarios (if the clause was waived) would be essentially giving him to LAD for ANYTHING, if The Cubs would somehow be desperate enough to unload Fukodome, or if Baltimore would swap their pricey lefty injury prone reliever Mike Gonzalez to have Jorge DH and platoon with Wieters for a year. Granted of course, all three of those scenarios are … out there because an aging backstop that’s not an everyday catcher at $13.1 is nearly impossible to unload.

But to really address the “freeing up DH spot ..there is no freeing it up”. Think of it like this. Take the NBA Draft. When GM’s go into The NBA Draft with the mindset of “WE NEED TO DRAFT FOR A PARTICULAR POSITION” … they often fail. Did having Sam Bowie play Center really benefit The Trail Blazers more than Jordan or Barkley taking starting jobs while benching Terry Porter or Jerome Kersey would have?

Point being, much like with Jordan in The NBA, Pujols is MLB’s elite #1 guy. If the opportunity is there to snag him, then it should be done. If that means Terry Porter…err…Jorge Posada takes a back seat, oh well. Not to play a jinx card or anything, but, its not like Jorge hasnt spent a bit of time on the DL over the past few years.

I wouldn’t trade Rasmus for all those players let alone a year of Pujols. Granderson can’t hit lefties, Swisher…blah. Chamberlain can’t cut it as a starter and the yanks need starters. The cards bullpen is set. I know nothing of Betances but Im bettances he aint no Rasmus. How bout we trade you Skip Schumacher, David Freese, Allen Craig, and Kyle McClellan for Cano and Arod ?

Alex

Because they’re Yankee fans and if they stop their feet, throw their food and cry the whole time at the super market, they expect to get what they want. Giving up your dead weight for our best players, NY, is completely ludacris. Why would we want the contracts, let alone the production, from any of those guys.

Cashman just gave Andruw Jones a $2M deal. There’s an emergency backup RF option there. As aforementioned above: If Arizona is willing to part with Justin Upton for Nova/Laird/Sanchez or a package resembling that, than there’s your All-Star caliber RF’er with a lowball (for Yanks at least) contract.

“Freeing up DH Spot” comment regading Posada that you commented on.

As much as I enjoy a bunch of guys yelling “hip hip Jorge” in my ear all season … in 2011 Jorge Posada at $13.1M is a waste for NY, thats just how it is. Its nothing personal on the guy or to disregard anything he’s done for the team over the years, but reality is .. its 2011 and when you got guys like Manny Ramirez signing DH deals for $2M, paying Jorge $13.1 …it…it is what it is. He has a No Trade Clause and the only even OUT THERE trade scenarios (if the clause was waived) would be essentially giving him to LAD for ANYTHING, if The Cubs would somehow be desperate enough to unload Fukodome, or if Baltimore would swap their pricey lefty injury prone reliever Mike Gonzalez to have Jorge DH and platoon with Wieters for a year. Granted of course, all three of those scenarios are … out there because an aging backstop that’s not an everyday catcher at $13.1 is nearly impossible to unload.

But to really address the “freeing up DH spot ..there is no freeing it up”. Think of it like this. Take the NBA Draft. When GM’s go into The NBA Draft with the mindset of “WE NEED TO DRAFT FOR A PARTICULAR POSITION” … they often fail. Did having Sam Bowie play Center really benefit The Trail Blazers more than Jordan or Barkley taking starting jobs while benching Terry Porter or Jerome Kersey would have?

Point being, much like with Jordan in The NBA, Pujols is MLB’s elite #1 guy. If the opportunity is there to snag him, then it should be done. If that means Terry Porter…err…Jorge Posada takes a back seat, oh well. Not to play a jinx card or anything, but, its not like Jorge hasnt spent a bit of time on the DL over the past few years.

Bench: Posada, Nunez, Cervelli or Montero,
Jones if you have Upton or Golson
or sign a lowball FA like Podsednik

red blazer

again…

there is no way we are trading you guys Rasmus and Pujols for a bag of balls.

tedturner12

Fantasy Cashman:
What about Yanks trade:
Cano
Tex
Arod (pick up all his salary)

for

Pujols
Freese
Schumaker

Is this a fair trade?

block

LOL

Fantasy Cashman

What options to The Cardinals have?

They can give away Chris Carpenter or Matt Holliday to free up $, trade Pujols, or let Pujols walk away. Is there a 4th option for St Louis?

So as St Louis fans crapped all over my idea which involved trading a player that demanded a trade (yea yea they later toned that down) and a player that’s basically holding the team hostage with a year left on his contract …. what would YOU do?

red blazer

Rasmus trade rumors were over blown…

he is all good now.

Pujols will sign the cards have the room.

a more feasible trade would be something like cano and tex for Rasmus and Pujols.

I’d still rather have Pujols and Rasmus.

red blazer

yeah your paying a ton for Albert but rasmus is cheap for a few years.

tedturner12

What options do the Cardinals have?
Lets see, sign Pujols and keep Rasmus. If they are unable to sign Pujols, 2 draft picks are better than your proposal of Granderson, Swisher, etc.

4 junk players does not equal 2 superstars. This isnt Xbox.

Vanloan

I agree the proposed trade doesn’t get done, but he’s offering more than a bag of balls from the Yankees. MLB just rated Granderson as the 3rd best CF in baseball, and Swisher has been one of the more productive RF in the American league the last 2 years. Between the 2 of them your looking at close to 60 HR’s. Granted that isn’t as much as Pujols and Rasmus, nor do they have the OBP of Pujols and Rasmus, but your only getting Pujols for half a season, and he was also throwing in Betances and Joba.

Joba’s a question mark. Betances is one of the top pitching prospects in the yankee’s minor league system. A system that has a lot of high quality pitching prospects. He finished last year dominating AA. So I agree the trade isn’t going to happen, but I don’t think it’s as lop sided as you guys have made it to be.

IQ

Rasmus and Pujols both have one year left on their contracts. The four from NYY are guarantees. Not saying that trade would ever happen, but it is a balanced trade. At the same time if Pujols leaves St Louis and they dont receive any star power in return in the form of a trade, I look forward to watching the videos on Youtube of fans burning Lebron, I mean Pujols jerseys.

Mike

Rasmus has 4 years left under team control, not one. He’s only entering his third MLB season.

tedturner12

IQ:
How do you figure Rasmus has 1 year left on his contract? Try to look up the facts before you type. Also, if the Cards trade Pujols it will be for several ML ready prospects, not a couple 30 yr old OFs.

tedturner12

How about this:
Swisher
Granderson
Joba
Paul ONeil

for

Pujols
Holiday
Molina
Rasmus
Wainwright

KG

You twisted my arm, but okay. But if you get O’Neill, we also get the remains of Jack Buck.

Zachary Allen

I think Albert Pujols should stay on the cardinals, because the cardinals would not do good with out him