AFL – Semi Finals Preview – 2017

AFL Betting Preview – Semi Finals

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans

Form:

The Geelong Cats are at long odds against Sydney after a 51 point loss against the Tigers in Week 1. The Cats could only manage 16 points in the first half and they’ll need to improve in this Semi Final clash. They have a poor record against the Swans and they lost to them in the finals last season. Sydney are through to another Semi Final after they thrashed the Bombers in the Elimination Final. As a result, they will start as the favourite in this matchup, even though it’s played in Melbourne. Which is mainly due to a 3-0 record against the Cats and they have only lost once against them in the last 4 seasons.

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Cats will likely make a few changes with Guthrie and Kolodjashnij picking injuries last week. Menzel is likely to return in the forward line, along with Buzza against the tall Swans. Lance Franklin picked up a corky in the first quarter last week but he’ll definitely play. The Swans will likely be unchanged.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 20, 2017
Simonds Stadium
Geelong defeated by Sydney 61-107

Preliminary Final, 2016
MCG
Geelong defeated by Sydney 60-97

Round 16, 2016
Simonds Stadium
Geelong defeated by Sydney 60-98

Margin/Line betting:

The Swans average winning margin against the Cats in the last three meetings is 40 points. They won the 2016 Preliminary Final against them by 37 points and we would tip another 1-39 margin. Although after last week, the Swans could easily win by 40+. The main difference is the venue from last week as the Swans aren’t a great scoring side at the MCG in history.

Total points:

Both sides average around 95 ppg but this is a final and we’re expecting a lower scoring match. The Swans defence will likely keep the Cats quiet and they average just 74 points against. The Cats only kicked 5 goals last week so we would back the under total points.

Prediction:

For a spot in the Preliminary Final, the Cats will hopefully start better this week. But the form of the Swans is hard to go past and we’re tipping they’ll cover the line.Best bet:Swans -18.5 ($1.91)Value bet: Swans 40+ ($3.75)

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

Form:

GWS face the Eagles at home for a spot in the Preliminary Final on Saturday night. They were outplayed by the Crows last week but they should enjoy a home final. The Giants are 1-1 in finals in Sydney and they’ll be trying to avenge a close finals loss agains the Bulldogs last season. This season they’ve beaten the Eagles at home and on the road, so they’ll take a lot of confidence from those wins.

The Eagles staged a massive upset in the Elimination Finals and they look for another this week. Their retiring champions led the way and they’ll be the key against the inexperienced Giants. They lost to the Giants in Round 22 but they’ll be up for the challenge in the finals.

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Giants have lost Cameron for the season and Steve Johnson is the likely inclusion. Shane Mumford is out in the ruck. Despite an extra time finish last week, the Eagles are injury free.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 22, 2017
Spotless Stadium
GWS defeats West Coast 81-60

Round 10, 2017
Domain Stadium
West Coast defeated by GWS 90-98

Round 21, 2016
Spotless Stadium
GWS defeated by West Coast 96-97

Margin/Line betting:

As mentioned, the Giants have won both matches against the Eagles in 2017. They have been decided by under 4 goals and we would tip another close one in the finals pressure. The Eagles will remember a 1 point win against the Giants last season at this venue as well. Overall, this should be a 1-39 margin and the Eagles beat the same line last week (16.5).

Total points:

The Giants haven’t been converting in-front of goals as they’ve kicked 23 behinds to 14 goals in their last two matches. They’ve also lost Cameron up forward which will hurt their scoring power. The Eagles took their opportunities last week as they kicked 12 goals, 6 behinds. This looks like another under points match.

Prediction:

The Eagles will be confident after last week and the extra time shouldn’t affect them too much. The Giants will need to improve after two poor performances in a row. But they’ll know they can beat the Eagles are a 2-0 record against them in 2017. But we would back the Eagles at the line as the best bet.Best bet:Eagles +15.5 ($1.91)Value bet: Giants 1-39 ($2.00)

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