22 August 2008

Events in Georgia have had some surprising repercussions in the Middle East, leaving Syria looking perkier than usual

Israel's involvement with the Georgian military has been somewhat overlooked in light of more blatant US support, such as the airlift of some 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq at the start of the conflict. However Misha Glenny spotted it, writing in the New Statesman that Prime Minister Putin warned President Shimon Peres to "pull out your trainers and weapons or we will escalate our co-operation with Syria and Iran" – after which Israel dutifully complied.

Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah also spotted it and subsequently mocked Israel's withdrawal, claiming that "the entire front line of the [Israeli] army's brass stepped down because of the [Lebanon] war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him."

The Russians are indeed emboldened by their sweeping victory which has highlighted the impotence of both the US and Nato. Jonathan Spyer, in the Jerusalem Post, described Russian action as throwing down "a direct challenge to the US-dominated post Cold-war international order" and expressed concern over Moscow's willingness to supply Syria with the S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missile system, a defensive measure that has the potential to impede Israeli airstrikes such as the one that targeted a suspected Syrian nuclear site last September.

Then the BBC reported yesterday that Syria's President Assad met with President Medvedev at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss "deals on anti-aircraft and anti-tank missile systems".

Like any customer visiting his main arms dealer, Assad praised Russian actions in Georgia, explaining that "we understand the Russian stance and the Russian military response as a result of the provocations which took place. We appreciate the courageous decision taken by the Russian leadership in responding to the international initiatives and the start of withdrawing its forces".

Assad also signalled his willingness to have Russian Iskander missiles (which according to GlobalSecurity.org are capable of overcoming the enemy's anti-missile defences and hitting targets at a distance of 280 kilometers) situated on Syrian territory, although he refused to commit to any timeline for such a deployment.

The Syrians have survived six years of Isolation led by Washington and Tel Aviv following 9/11, an isolation that has only shown recent signs of ending. If a small country like Syria can survive years of western isolation then the Russian bear empowered with petrodollars and a stable, if undemocratic, leadership, will surely feel more confident in throwing its foreign policy weight around.

The Times reported that Russia's activism, particularly in arms dealing, was sparking fears of a Middle East "Cold War". In previous years Russia has respected US/Israeli "red lines" on supplying equipment to Syria; however with the potential red lines crossed by the other side in terms of support for Georgia and signing Poland up to the anti-ballistic missile treaty, all bets may be off. Indeed, the BBC reported the Russian reaction as an ominous foreign ministry statement saying that Moscow "will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic demarches".

Syria has a number of offensive and defensive weapon orders pending, however what could radically alter the balance of power is a more overt Russian presence in the country itself. Over the past few years defence analysts have kept a close eye on the Russian navy's activity at the Syrian port of Tartus. There are real fears that the Russians are keen to transform what was little more than a refuelling station into a fully-fledged Russian Mediterranean fleet naval base where they can relocate much of the Black Sea fleet currently held up in Sevastopol.

Satellite shots of Russian involvement in dredging the port to allow access to larger vessels provide more evidence to support this theory which would place an aggressive Russia right on the doorstep of Israel and in close proximity to the strategic Turkish port of Ceyhan, the terminus of a major new oil pipeline linked to the Azerbaijani port city of Baku – an incendiary combination with huge tactical ramifications.

This makes grim reading for the lame duck leaders, Bush and Olmert, neither of whom have the political capital of the Russian Putin-Medvedev alliance. Perhaps the only manoeuvre that can undermine an aggressive Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance is the Israeli-Syrian peace talks, which are still ongoing. If they result in an unlikely peace treaty there is hope yet that this new and dangerous cold war will not emerge.

For past seven years, Israeli companies have been helping Georgian army to prepare for war against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and security advice

The fighting which broke out over the weekend between Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's infantry forces.

The Defense Ministry held a special meeting Sunday to discuss the various arms deals held by Israelis in Georgia, but no change in policy has been announced as of yet.

"The subject is closely monitored," said sources in the Defense Ministry. "We are not operating in any way which may counter Israeli interests. We have turned down many requests involving arms sales to Georgia; and the ones which have been approves have been duly scrutinized. So far, we have placed no limitations on the sale of protective measures."

Israel began selling arms to Georgia about seven years ago following an initiative by Georgian citizens who immigrated to Israel and became businesspeople.

"They contacted defense industry officials and arms dealers and told them that Georgia had relatively large budgets and could be interested in purchasing Israeli weapons," says a source involved in arms exports.

The military cooperation between the countries developed swiftly. The fact that Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew contributed to this cooperation.

"His door was always open to the Israelis who came and offered his country arms systems made in Israel," the source said. "Compared to countries in Eastern Europe, the deals in this country were conducted fast, mainly due to the defense minister's personal involvement."

Among the Israelis who took advantage of the opportunity and began doing business in Georgia were former Minister Roni Milo and his brother Shlomo, former director-general of the Military Industries, Brigadier-General (Res.) Gal Hirsch and Major-General (Res.) Yisrael Ziv.

Roni Milo conducted business in Georgia for Elbit Systems and the Military Industries, and with his help Israel's defense industries managed to sell to Georgia remote-piloted vehicles (RPVs), automatic turrets for armored vehicles, antiaircraft systems, communication systems, shells and rockets.

According to Israeli sources, Gal Hirsch gave the Georgian army advice on the establishment of elite units such as Sayeret Matkal and on rearmament, and gave various courses in the fields of combat intelligence and fighting in built-up areas.

'Don't anger the Russians'

The Israelis operating in Georgia attempted to convince the Israeli Aerospace Industries to sell various systems to the Georgian air force, but were turned down. The reason for the refusal was "special" relations created between the Aerospace Industries and Russia in terms of improving fighter jets produced in the former USSR and the fear that selling weapons to Georgia would anger the Russians and prompt them to cancel the deals.

Israelis' activity in Georgia and the deals they struck there were all authorized by the Defense Ministry. Israel viewed Georgia as a friendly state to which there is no reason not to sell arms systems similar to those Israel exports to other countries in the world.

As the tension between Russia and Georgia grew, however, increasing voices were heard in Israel – particularly in the Foreign Ministry – calling on the Defense Ministry to be more selective in the approval of the deals with Georgia for fear that they would anger Russia.

"It was clear that too many unmistakable Israeli systems in the possesion of the Georgian army would be like a red cloth in the face of a raging bull as far as Russia is concerned," explained a source in the defense establishment.

For instance, the Russians viewed the operation of the Elbit System's RPVs as a real provocation.

"It was clear that the Russians were angry," says a defense establishment source, "and that the interception of three of these RPVs in the past three months was an expression of this anger. Not everyone in Israel understood the sensitive nerve Israel touched when it supplied such an advanced arms system to a country whose relations with Russia are highly tense."

In May it was eventually decide to approve future deals with Georgia only for the sale of non-offensive weapon systems, such as intelligence, communications and computer systems, and not to approve deals for the sale of rifles, aircraft, sells, etc.

A senior source in the Military Industry said Saturday that despite some reporters, the activity of Georgia's military industry was extremely limited.

"We conducted a small job for them several years ago," he said. "The rest of the deals remained on paper."

Dov Pikulin, one of the owners of the Authentico company specializing in trips and journeys to the area, says however that "the Israeli is the main investor in the Georgian economy. Everyone is there, directly or indirectly."

Georgian minister: Israel should be proud

"The Israelis should be proud of themselves for the Israeli training and education received by the Georgian soldiers," Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili said Saturday.

Yakobashvili is a Jew and is fluent in Hebrew. "We are now in a fight against the great Russia," he said, "and our hope is to receive assistance from the White House, because Georgia cannot survive on its own.

"It's important that the entire world understands that what is happening in Georgia now will affect the entire world order. It's not just Georgia's business, but the entire world's business."

One of the Georgian parliament members did not settle Saturday for the call for American aid, urging Israel to help stop the Russian offensive as well: "We need help from the UN and from our friends, headed by the United States and Israel. Today Georgia is in danger – tomorrow all the democratic countries in the region and in the entire world will be in danger too."

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