Topics

There is only one concern for the Senators if they wait to sign defenceman Erik Karlsson: Somebody will make him an offer he can’t refuse.

While Senators GM Bryan Murray won’t sit down with Karlsson’s Toronto-based agent Craig Oster until later this month to have formal talks, the best-case scenario for the franchise would see a deal done before July 1.

Though Karlsson, 21, is a restricted free agent, a couple of high-profile agents noted Tuesday he is the kind of player who could be targeted for an offer sheet. That could force the Senators to break the bank.

After making $1.3 million US in the final season of his entry-level deal, Karlsson is going to be in for a hefty raise in the wake of a breakthrough season. He had 19 goals and 59 assists in 81 games and has no rights to arbitration.

So, does the possibility exist for an offer sheet which requires only draft picks as compensation?

“Absolutely it does,” one high-profile agent, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Sun. “There could be a team out there that wants to get this player and cause Ottawa some grief.

“The Senators would have to match but it might be worth the risk. The CBA is expiring, nobody is sure where the cap is going. The franchise certainly has to realize that chance exists.”

The Senators know they’re going to have to ante up for Karlsson. Karlsson’s comparables will be in the $6.5-to-$7.5 million range.

The biggest issue could be the length. Owner Eugene Melnyk told me once he was hesitant to sign players to long-term contracts after Dany Heatley agreed to a six-year, $45 million deal and then demanded a trade one year into it.

Melnyk is trying to recover the $4 million bonus he was forced to pay on July 1, 2009 after Heatley refused to accept a deal to the Edmonton Oilers. In this case, Melnyk could be once bitten, twice shy.

But Melnyk and Murray don’t want to be put in a bind where a team looking for defensive help — with cap room — offers Karlsson a pile of money on a front-loaded contract and the Senators are forced to match.

Not every team believes in offer sheets. Many see the exercise as pointless and in every case in the last six years — with the exception of Dustin Penner to Edmonton from Anaheim in July 2007 — they’ve been matched.

“I’m not a big fan of offer sheets,” a league executive said. “If a player is good, you’re always going to match it. If the guy is not a guy you’re sure about, you let him go, The way it is structured now, the picks are useless. The picks aren’t going to help you win when you’re fired. You have to find a way to match it.”

When the Senators dealt defenceman Andrej Meszaros to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2009 for fellow blue-liner Filip Kuba, Murray was forced into the deal because former Bolts GM Brian Lawton threatened Ottawa with an offer sheet.

The league executive said you better be careful what you wish for if you to do try to sign an RFA. But he also noted that doesn’t mean the Senators should overpay for Karlsson just because of the threat..

“You pull stuff like that, but you have to remember you’re exposing yourself. I’m not in a GM’s head. You’re always going to be in a position where you can’t sign a Group II free agent. That happens,” said the executive.

“I’ve always thought that teams hide behind this statement: ‘We were afraid of an offer sheet.’ Negotiations can take place all summer if you want. You got a good young defenceman, if someone makes an offer, match it.”