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Taiwan defense ministry assesses chance of PLA invasion

In its 2015 report on China’s military power, the ministry assessed that China might invade Taiwan in some critical situations, which could include a declaration of formal independence or moves by the country toward de jure independence. Other scenarios also include massive civil unrest, Taiwan obtaining nuclear weapons, or foreign troops being deployed in Taiwan.

Delays by Taiwan over cross-strait talks on peaceful unification or foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs could also prompt China to invade, the ministry assessed.

Despite detente across the Taiwan Strait in recent years, Beijing has never relinquished the threat of using force to achieve its ultimate goal of unification. The People’s Liberation Army conducted a series of exercises at Zhurihe Training Base in Inner Mongolia in July in which replicas of Taiwan’s Presidential Office and other key hubs were used as targets, the report pointed out.

If China resorts to military means against Taiwan at the current stage, it would probably resort to joint military operations to attack or use a joint blockade strategy to intimidate Taiwan, the ministry contended, stressing that it might also invade Taiwan proper in certain contingencies if it deemed it necessary to do so.