Arena Digest: Running scared?

With six months to go until Election Day, the American people are in an anti-big-anything, anti-establishment mood. Incumbents not running like a challenger on jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs risk losing theirs. When it comes to primary fights, the winners will have to work overtime mending fences with opponents and wooing their supporters.

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Primary results mean little without post-primary unity. A bit of old-school wisdom: Back in 1962, my grandfather, Thomas D’Alesandro Jr., urged Maryland Democrats to unify because “our common task is to elect Democrats — to send Democrats to Annapolis so that progressive government can continue unabated and to provide President Kennedy with the working majority he needs if he is to keep this country moving ahead. ... Republicans believe and rely heavily upon dissension in our ranks. They are firmly convinced that if the Democratic Party will split, the victory will be theirs by default. Through your efforts ... this will not come to pass.” Forty-eight years later, substitute “Obama” for “Kennedy,” and these words ring true for Democrats across America: We must unite to press on for jobs as the party of prosperity for all. Reverse the party adjectives, and Republicans have a lesson, too: Tea party candidates can endorse Republicans or serve as Ralph Naders of the right to elect Democrats. After every primary race, good manners are good politics: The vanquished will have to choose between swallowing hard and supporting someone who shares their core values or allowing divisions to elect the opposition.

Tevi Troy, visiting senior fellow, the Hudson Institute

Every race is different and responsive to local issues and personalities, but each can also be affected by large national mood shifts. In 2006, for example, Jim Talent in Missouri and Bob Ehrlich in Maryland might very well have won their elections if there had not been such a strong anti-Republican wave nationwide. This year could be another one of those “wave” years, and whether it is anti-Democrat, anti-establishment or anti-incumbent in general, the Democrats, as the majority party, should have significant cause for concern.

Victor Kamber, vice president, American Income Life Insurance

Today continues the 2010 primary season and again proves Tip O’Neill’s adage “all politics is local.”

The candidates in close races in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana have done poorly in fundraising and have not been effective is distinguishing themselves from their opponents.

Hawaii is a different case: The Republican may win but only because there are three in the race — two Democrats and only one Republican. It’s true a win is a win, but this is a seat that will go back to Democratic in November, when there are only two candidates — one from each party on the ballot.

There will be primary races coming up that will test the issue of how unpopular incumbents are; these are not the races.

Martin Frost, attorney, former Democratic congressman from Texas

It’s way too early to generalize about actual anti-incumbent sentiment. The first real tests come in the Arkansas and Pennsylvania primaries. If Sens. [Blanche] Lincoln and [Arlen] Specter survive high-profile primary challenges — and they may well do so — then the press is overhyping any anti-incumbent mood. Let’s wait until we have some real tests before drawing conclusions.