3 Forward This document is intended to provide guidance to public health units on how to complete hazard identification and risk assessments, in accordance with the Public Health Emergency Preparedness Standard and Protocol. ii

4 1. Introduction The Guide to Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for Public Health Units is intended to support and provide guidance to public health units (PHUs) on the hazard identification and risk assessment (HIRA) process. HIRA is a process by which the hazards facing a particular PHU are identified and assessed in terms of their probability and consequence(s) that they pose. Based upon this risk assessment, PHU can effectively plan and prepare for dealing with potential public health emergencies or emergencies with public health significance. The HIRA process is a key component of a comprehensive emergency preparedness program and assists PHUs in establishing their priorities for emergency preparedness activities. 2. Key Steps The hazard identification and risk assessment process comprises four steps including: 1) Establish the context 2) Identify potential hazards 3) Determine the risk for each hazard 4) Record potential hazards on a risk assessment grid Step 1 Establish the Context Step 2 Identify potential hazards Step 3 Determine probability and consequence rating for each hazard Step 4 Plot each hazard on risk assessment grid Page 1 of 12

5 3 Establish the Context The purpose of this step is to describe the characteristics of the PHU as this will influence both the probability and consequence of a public health emergency or an emergency with public health significance. This may include looking at population size, demographics, main industries, geographic characteristics, transportation avenues etc. 3.1 Methodology PHU should consider relevant aspects of their areas that may have an impact on a public health emergency. These aspects may include, but are not limited to: Demographic, ethnic and socio-economic composition of the community Geographic dispersion of population Classification of area (i.e. rural, urban, mixed) Vulnerable populations Main transportation avenues Main industries Critical service suppliers (i.e. electricity, telecommunications, gas) 3.2 Additional Planning Tools There are a number of planning tools PHUs may find helpful during the HIRA process including: Topographical maps Maps of main communities illustrating key facilities, institutions and transportation avenues etc Relevant historical data in relation to past public health emergencies or emergencies with public health significance 4. Hazard Identification The purpose of this step is to review the generic 37 hazards identified by Emergency Management Ontario (EMO) hazards list (see Appendix 1) and to identify additional hazards specific to the PHU. Many of the hazards will already have been identified through the municipal/regional HIRA process. It is important that PHUs review the identified hazards through a public health lens as well as consider additional hazards that may not have appeared in the municipal review but are of public health significance. Page 2 of 12

6 The following definitions are fundamental to the HIRA process: Hazard - (1) A risk that is a threat; (2) An event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss. Hazard Identification: The process of defining and describing a hazard, including its physical characteristics, magnitude and severity, probability and frequency, causative factors, and locations/areas affected. 1 The identified hazards will fall into the following three categories: 1) Natural Hazards - Natural hazards are unexpected or uncontrollable natural events which affect a group of people by disrupting their activities and potentially causing loss of life; 2) Technological Hazards - Technological hazards refer to a wide range of conditions emanating from the manufacture, transportation, and the use of modern technology and substances such as chemicals, explosives, flammables, and radioactive materials; and 3) Human-caused Hazards - Human-caused hazards are threats having an element of human intent, negligence, or error or involving a failure of a system. 4.1 Methodology The PHU should record all identified hazards in a table. This will provide for an easy-tofollow format that can accommodate additional information determined during later stages of the HIRA process. In addition, the table will capture all relevant information that should be attached to the PHUs emergency response plan. Below is an example of a table used to capture the findings of the HIRA (Table 1). Table 1: Item Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Hazard Category 1 Natural Hazard Hazard Flooding Probability Rating Determined in Step 3 Risk Analysis Consequence Rating Determined in Step 3 Additional Information Community located on flood plain on the east side River Smith 1 Guidelines for Provincial Emergency Management Programs in Ontario, Essential Level. Emergency Management Ontario, Page 3 of 12

7 The column for additional information may be used to identify specific vulnerable populations and/or sensitive areas where an identified hazard may have a greater impact. 5. Risk Assessment The next step is to consider the overall risks presented by these hazards. This is achieved by looking at and assessing both the probability and the consequence of the identified hazard. The following definition is fundamental to the HIRA process: Risk A chance or possibility of danger, loss, injury, or other adverse consequences Methodology: Assessing Probability In order to determine the probability of a hazard it is necessary to look at past history: Has it happened before? What is the frequency with which it has occurred?; and How long since the last occurrence? Probability may be expressed in terms of the likelihood of an event occurring within a given time period. Once this has been determined for each hazard, a probability rating of 1 through 4 is assigned (Table 2). In addition, PHUs may wish to consider seasonal variation. The likelihood of occurrence of various hazards can be contingent on seasonal variation. Different seasons have different climates, trigger different patterns of behaviour and have other unique features that contribute to making different events more or less prevalent. Question to ask include: Does the particular event occur more frequently during one or two seasons? Table 2: Probability Rating Description Detail 1 Low 2 Moderate 3 High 4 Extreme No history of incidents in the last 10 to 15 years Greater than Five (5) years since last incident One (1) incident in the last Five (5) years Several incidents in the last Five (5) years 3 2 Guidelines for Provincial Emergency Management Programs in Ontario, Essential Level. Emergency Management Ontario, Page 4 of 12

8 Once the probability rating has been determined, it can be recorded in the Table 1 under the risk analysis column. It is important to note that, for new and evolving threats (e.g. SARS), looking at the historical data from the last 15 years may not adequately describe the risk. Events that happened prior to 15 years (e.g., Influenza Pandemic), and new, events could happen. PHUs should use the best available information (i.e., expert advice, academic journals) to determine probability. 5.2 Methodology: Assessing Consequence The purpose of this step is to determine the overall risk presented by each hazard. The consequence of a hazard is determined by the impact the hazard has on life, physical infrastructure and the economy. In determining the potential impact of a hazard, it is important to keep in mind the type or nature of the impact and the scale. EMO has compiled a list of factors to consider when determining the consequence of a hazard. This is not an exhaustive list; however, it is a good starting point for PHUs. Concentration of people; Concentration of economic activity; Critical transportation corridors and associated vulnerable infrastructure such as bridges; Special populations and their needs for shelter-in-place vs. evacuation (i.e., children and the elderly); Key facilities for emergency services, response and evacuation; Transportation systems and resources; Time factors for response, evacuation, mitigation, and recovery; Space factors for response, evacuation, mitigation, and recovery; Health, safety and property implications; History of prevailing meteorological conditions; Industry screening models or dispersion models if available; Identification of sensitive environmental areas; and Identification of ministry critical infrastructure. A brief description of the consequence rating has been provided below. PHUs will each need to further define each of these categories. Key factors that are useful in determining the consequence ratings are: extent of injury, death, displacement, disruption of basic and essential services, environmental damage, negative economic impact, etc. 3 Guidelines for Provincial Emergency Management Programs in Ontario, Essential Level. Emergency Management Ontario, Page 5 of 12

9 To obtain a full understanding of the potential consequence of each hazard, PHUs may find it helpful to organize the above list of key factors into broad categories such as human, economic and physical infrastructure impacts. The Center for Excellence in Emergency Preparedness has created a public health risk assessment tool that PHUs may wish to adopt (Appendix 2). The ranking from each category can be compiled to obtain the overall consequence rating for the hazard. When the impact has been determined, a consequence rating from 1 4 is assigned (Table 3) and should be recorded in the Table 1 under the risk analysis column. Table 3 Consequence Rating Description No impact Limited Substantial High Details (PHU to further define) (i.e., no or limited injuries/illness, deaths in community, no impact to health human resources, no economic disruptions or infrastructure damage) (i.e., minor injuries/illness/deaths, minor health human resources disruption, economic disruption and infrastructure damage) (i.e., significant injuries/illness, significant health human resources, economic disruption and infrastructure damage) (i.e., high probability of death, extensive health human resources impact, infrastructure damage and economic impact) 4 6. Recording Potential Hazards on a Risk Assessment Grid The purpose of this step is to plot the probability and consequence determined in Step 3 on the Risk Assessment Grid. A four by four matrix (Table 4), using the ratings for probability and consequence recorded in Table 1, illustrates the results of the risk assessment. 6.1 Methodology The probability and consequence ratings in Table 1 are used to position all the identified hazards on the risk assessment grid. An example on how information determined in the previous stages of the HIRA process is used to position identified hazards in the grid is provided below: 4 Guidelines for Provincial Emergency Management Programs in Ontario, Essential Level. Emergency Management Ontario, Page 6 of 12

10 Energy Emergencies Probability: 3 High PHU is a major industry hub and home to a large population. As such, its energy demands are high, and often exceed the supply, which can lead to an energy emergency. In August 2003, PHU was among the areas impacted by the largest blackout in North America's history. Electricity was cut to 1 million people in PHU. Streetlights went out, business had to close and refrigeration equipment went dead. Consequence: 2 Limited PHU may experience utilities loss and technological failures. There is also a potential for capacity overload; since restaurants, doctors offices, etc., will be without power for a period of time. Risk Assessment: 3,2 The probability and consequence for the hazard Energy Emergencies results in a score of 3, 2, which is illustrated in the PHU risk assessment grid Table 4: Risk Assessment Grid 4 Probability 3 Energy Emergencies (3, 2) Consequence By placing hazards on the assessment grid, according to probability and consequence, PHUs will be able to identify their priorities. The grid does not provide a precise calculation of risk, however, it does assist PHUs in determining those hazards posing the greatest risk. An example of prioritization used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is illustrated below in Table 5. The level of risk spans from red coloured squares which depicts the hazards with the highest level of risk to blue coloured squares which depicts the hazards with the lowest level of risk. Page 7 of 12

11 Table 5: Qualitative Risk Assessment Matrix Level of Risk P r o b a b i l i t y Extreme High Moderate Low 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4, 4 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3, 4 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4 No Impact Limited Substantial High Consequence Example of Risk Matrix Modified from Long and John, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) There will be situations in PHUs where the probability is low based on past occurrence but the consequence is high due to the nature of the event. For example, the last pandemic occurred 40 years ago but there was widespread worldwide illness, deaths and economic disruptions. This may cause the event to be considered a lower priority during the initial review; however, it is recommended that PHUs review any risks that have a ranking of 4 for either probability or consequence to determine if the hazard should receive additional attention. 7. Conclusion Identification, assessment and prioritization of hazards and risks through the HIRA process is fundamental to the public health emergency preparedness program for each PHU. This process helps each PHU to clearly lay out the preparedness program priorities for developing plans to ensure a seamless response during public health emergencies or emergencies with public health significance. Page 8 of 12

Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Purpose and Scope A Hazard Vulnerability Analysis (HVA) evaluates risk associated with a specific hazard. During this analysis, the hazard is evaluated for its probability

Essential Building Blocks of a Comprehensive Emergency Management Program April 28, 2015 Objectives 1. Overview of Planning Process and Requirements 2. Components of a comprehensive Emergency Management

How can we defend ourselves from the hazard of Nature in the modern society?, University of Bologna President of the EGU Division of Natural Hazards Email: stefano.tinti@unibo.it nh@egu.eu GIFT 2013 Natural

Emergency Management Program The Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act, R.S.O. 1990,c.E.9 and its associated regulations and standards, requires all Ontario Municipalities to implement a mandatory

DM-PH&SD-P7-TG6 رقم النموذج : I. Introduction This Guideline on supports the national platform for disaster risk reduction. It specifies requirements to enable both the public and private sector to develop

File 172-A000-73 24 April 2002 To: All Oil and Gas Companies under the Jurisdiction of the National Energy Board (the Board or NEB) and All Interested Parties SECURITY AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE

DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT Niru Nirupama Associate Professor and Graduate Program Director Disaster & Emergency Management York University Toronto Since 2005 2000-02 Hazard or threat

Company Name Address Telephone Contact Name Title Last Revision Date Policy and Organizational Statements Identify the goals and objectives for the emergency response plan. Define what your emergency response

Disaster and Pandemic Planning for Nonprofits Continuity and Recovery Plan Template This publication was supported by Grant Cooperative Agreement number 5U90TP917012-08 from the U.S. Centers for Disease

Threats and Hazards: Event Challenges and Impacts Event Disruptions Are Always A Possibility Planning Is the Key to Surviving Them In the past several years, Americans have experienced unthinkable disasters

STEP-BY-STEP BUSINESS CONTINUITY AND EMERGENCY PLANNING MAY 27 2015 AGENDA: Emergency Management Business Continuity Planning Q & A MONTH DAY, YEAR TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION 2 CANADIAN RED CROSS Disaster

Paper #3 Risk Assessment and Management in Local Government Emergency Planning by James A. Gordon Risk Assessment and Management in Local Government Emergency Planning Mitigation is the first of the four

LAW ON EMERGENCY SITUATIONS I BASIC PROVISIONS Article 1 This Law defines emergency action, declaration and management; protection and rescue system of persons, material and cultural goods and environment

DISASTER RISK DETECTION AND MANAGEMENT COURSES SETUP SCENARIO AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY CASE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY Derek Muhwezi 2 MISSION OF THE DEPARTMENT To provide and promote quality education,

for Human Service Providers Scott Ellis Scott Elliott Erin Sember-Chase 1 Goal The purpose of this webinar is to increase awareness and knowledge about the need for disaster/emergency continuity planning

Natural Hazards 1.1 Engage Natural Hazards To introduce students to the natural hazards which occur in Western Australia and their risk. Western Australia experiences a range of natural hazards each year,

Homeland Security Plan for Iowa State University Extension Field Offices Homeland security covers natural disaster events such as a flood, drought, or winter storm, as well as terrorist events from a physical,

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ACCIDENTS AT WORK IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY AND THE SEVESO II DIRECTIVE I. A. PAPAZOGLOU System Reliability and Industrial Safety Laboratory National Center for Scientific

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, KANSAS EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN ESF14-Long Term Community Recovery Planning Team Support Agency Coffeyville Public Works Independence Public Works Montgomery County Public Works 1/15/2009

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TEMPLATE *This template is designed to help facilities keep track of emergency preparedness information. The fields can be typed in online or the form can be printed out and done

GET READY NOW! This supplemental document was designed to be used in conjunction with the Guide to an Emergency Management Plan (October 2014). It is meant to further support the emergency planning process

6.0 Mitigation Strategy Introduction A mitigation strategy provides participating counties and municipalities in the H-GAC planning area with the basis for action. Based on the findings of the Risk Assessment

Emergency Management Business Continuity Template The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo would like to give credit to the Calgary Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) and the Calgary Chamber of Commerce

Emergency Preparedness Tips and Actions for the Workplace Is Your Business Disaster Ready? Disaster and emergencies can happen anytime and anywhere in Minnesota. 52 Presidential Disaster Declarations between

University of North Carolina Wilmington CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLANNING November 9, 2010 Lumina Theater, Fisher Student Center Development of Continuity Planning University of North Carolina Wilmington

North Carolina Emergency Management North Carolina Incidents North Carolina Incidents Primary mission is consequence management Must be prepared to: Search and Rescue Provide Mass Care Protect Life and

What is a COOP? Continuity of Operations Planning A step by step guide for business A Continuity Of Operations Plan (COOP) is a MANAGEMENT APPROVED set of agreed-to preparations and sufficient procedures

BRIDGE Parish Council Caring for the village Bridge Parish Council Community Emergency Plan IF YOU ARE IN IMMEDIATE DANGER CALL 999 October 2014 All enquiries relating to this document should be sent to:

1 Canadian Pacific Railway Risk Assessment / Risk Management Protocol Overview / Outline At Canadian Pacific Railway, we conduct risk assessments of our activities and operations for a number of different

Larimer County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan 2015 EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTIONS Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) provide the structure for coordinating county activities in support of incident

11. Health and disability services Summary The Ministry of Health and all other health sector agencies undertake the planning necessary to provide health and disability services in the event of any emergency.

Public Health Emergency Preparedness Protocol, 2015 Preamble The Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS) are published by the Minister of Health and Long- Term Care under the authority of the Health Protection

APPENDIX A : 1998 Survey of Proprietary Risk Assessment Systems In its 1997 paper, the working party reported upon a survey of proprietary risk assessment systems designed for use by UK household insurers

Emergency Management Ontario Progress Report 2006-2009 Queen s Printer for Ontario 2009 All material created in this guide is protected by Crown Copyright, which is held by the Queen s Printer for Ontario.

Overview It is unlikely that a new pandemic influenza strain will first emerge within Elgin County. The World Health Organization (WHO) uses a series of six phases, as outlined below, of pandemic alert

Statement of Susan R. Cooper, MSN, RN, Commissioner, Tennessee Department of Health Before the United States Senate Environmental Public Works Committee October 23, 2007 Representing the Association of

Flooding Fast Facts What is a flood? Flooding is the unusual presence of water on land to a depth which affects normal activities. Flooding can arise from: Overflowing rivers (river flooding), Heavy rainfall

Good Security Good Business Good Security Good Business Attorney-General s foreword Small business plays a crucial role, not only in our nation s economy but in Australian society. We often make decisions

DISASTER MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR THE HEALTH SECTOR Guideline for Program Development Manitoba Health Disaster Management Version 1 Printed November 21, 2002 Disaster Management Model for the Health Sector

1 A Sample Disaster Response Plan This sample plan serves as a starting point for Hartsville District churches which are developing plans for disaster response. You will find notes (in boxes) with further

Town of Warwick, Village of Florida, Village of Greenwood Lake and Village of Warwick MULTI JURISIDICTIONAL, MULTI HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN DRAFT Appendix B Historical Hazard Documentation Rev #0 May 2013

Business Continuity Planning Guide For Small Businesses Prepared by the City of Vaughan Emergency Planning Department 1 Business Continuity Planning Business Continuity Planning (BCP) is a planning process

Basic system of measures for flood damage mitigation in Japan Preparedness for major floods Past major floods and state-level efforts Role of the 2 MLIT's disaster prevention efforts Disaster prevention

Flood Risk Management Value of Flood Risk Management Every year floods sweep through communities across the United States taking lives, destroying property, shutting down businesses, harming the environment

Flood Risk Management Value of Flood Risk Management Value to Individuals and Communities Every year floods sweep through communities across the United States taking lives, destroying property, shutting