Battle on Cameron’s home front

LONDON — Brussels called David Cameron’s proposals on reformed EU membership “fair” and his Home Secretary Theresa May finally backed the In campaign.

Next up for the prime minister: to convince the 27 other EU leaders — and 45 million British voters.

The diplomatic games between London and the other EU capitals will play out in the lead up to a summit on February 18 in Brussels. The larger challenge for Cameron is on his home turf. He needs to turn enough of the media and critical figures in his naturally Euroskeptic-leaning cabinet to back his proposed reforms and win the vote to stay in the EU at a referendum tentatively due this summer.

The U.K. press was never going to applaud a package that essentially requires London to ask Europe’s permission to cut benefits for EU migrants when the welfare system is, as Britain sees it, overwhelmed. Rupert Murdoch’s the Sun set the tone, calling it a “dismal failure.”

But Downing Street insists it can sell the deal to voters as an end to what the Tories call a “something for nothing” system, where EU migrants get generous welfare benefits upon arrival, without having worked a day in Britain. Speaking in parliament Wednesday, Cameron called this an “unnatural draw to come to this country.”

“People said we’d never end ‘something for nothing,’ and we’ve done it,” said a source at Number 10.

A good day at the office

Theresa May’s belated conversion to the In cause — she called the proposals agreed with Brussels “the basis for a deal” — and the restrained response of her occasionally Euroskeptic potential rival for future Tory leadership, London Mayor Boris Johnson, suggest Cameron may only have to contend with a handful of senior Conservatives joining the Out campaign.

“This isn’t a bad day at the office for Dave,” said Petros Fassoulas, secretary-general of the European Movement International and former chairman of the European Movement U.K., a leading pro-EU group.

“The Tusk letter provides a solid basis for Cameron, it gives him the opportunity to present this as a victory and claim that he won concessions that will reshape the U.K.’s relationship with the EU,” said Fassoulas. If Cameron secures a final deal at the EU summit later this month, “I think he will be able to go back home and say ‘I slayed the dragon,’” he added.

The prime minister gave his strongest hint yet about the referendum date. Pressed by MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland not to hold it too close to elections in their national assemblies on May 5, Cameron said he was prepared to leave a six-week gap. If he sticks to his pledge, the earliest date is Thursday, June 23 (U.K. elections are always held on Thursdays).

David Cameron | Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Using all his skills as a former PR professional, Cameron will have to focus on making the case for continued membership before a British public that largely shares his mistrust of what he calls a “European superstate,” but that won’t be swayed by the minutiae of “red card” benefit systems, or promises that they won’t foot the bill for future financial crises in the eurozone.

Despite Fleet Street’s hostility to the renegotiated membership terms, Downing Street is confident it can win the media war by focusing on broadcasters like the BBC and ITV, which are the main source of news for most Britons and, unlike the papers, are obliged to cover the campaign impartially.

Cameron’s communications chief, Craig Oliver, a former senior BBC editor, is regarded by political journalists as a wily operator who is particularly effective at getting the message across on television.

The Outs, on the other hand, say Cameron has bungled the PR campaign so far and failed to anticipate the extent of hostility to his negotiations with Brussels in the Tory-friendly press. However, the Out campaign is split and still lacks a powerful champion among the “big beasts” of the Conservative Party, the right-leaning Telegraph said in an editorial.

But for all the blowback, the bookies’ odds imply a probability of a Brexit vote at around 30 percent — a calculation that will be on the minds of the Tory heavyweights that could potentially turn against Cameron.

Intra-Tory struggle

The Euroskeptics had hoped Theresa May would play that role, or failing that, Boris Johnson. The mayor sidestepped this question outside his London home Wednesday, telling reporters: “The prime minister is making the best of a bad job. Let’s wait and see when this whole thing is agreed and try and see what it really means, every bit of it.”

Liam Fox, the former defense minister who is campaigning to leave the EU, told the BBC that up to five cabinet ministers would back Brexit. They include Chris Grayling, leader of the Commons, and Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary. The big players, however, are still calculating whether they can afford to stake their careers on such an uncertain outcome.

Behind the scenes, Cameron and his closest allies, including Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, will be twisting arms in their own party. They’re also betting that Cameron’s personal appeal is such that he’ll be able to repeat the stunning electoral coup of May last year, when he led the Conservatives to their first parliamentary majority since the 1990s, in defiance of the opinion polls.

Plenty of Tory backbenchers are unhappy about the terms agreed with Tusk, but there are also grumblings about the Out campaign. “I suspect like many, if I am left in doubt, I will do the safe thing and vote to remain,” James Heappey, a Conservative MP, wrote on the influential Conservative Home website.

Despite Cameron’s promise that ministers will be allowed to campaign freely, the prime minister has made it clear that he doesn’t want any members of his cabinet to publicly break ranks until after the deal is agreed with European leaders — effectively giving Cameron two weeks to shore up support for the deal before his opponents are fully mobilized.

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terence patrick hewett

It is always a subject of mirth when commentators quote bookmakers odds:

Bookies odds are estimates of implied probabilities and are only right about the balance of money bet. They have no view on the outcome, only that they will be still in profit whoever wins. So the odds have no value at all in predicting the outcome: bookies odds are not predictive they are priced. There’s an important difference, they are based on how people are betting as well as guestimates of what the result will be. And how people bet on politics and vote is very, very, rarely governed by either extra knowledge or analysis of existing data.

If you believe that bookies are always right: take your house and all your money up to the very shirt on your back and put it on the party of your choice. Best of…..Luck?

It has been only three days since this article was published and Cameron is being eaten alive by the press and the Web. You Europeans should be warned: If Cameron thinks he is going to lose, he will wrap himself in the flag, change sides and p*ss in your eye. He is the most perfidious of Perfidious Albion.