posted at 4:43 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

Fortunately, Virginia’s tilting the right way — barely. Romney’s led in seven of the nine polls taken there since the first debate, including each of the last five. If he comes through here and in Florida, where he’s led in 12 of the last 14 polls, then he’s got 248 EVs in the bank (by RCP’s estimate) with Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire all on the radar. The latest from Rasmussen:

Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April…

Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters.

Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

Ras also has a new poll of Pennsylvania today: Obama by five, with over 50 percent of the vote. Between that and Jon Ralston’s arguments for why O’s early-voting advantage in Nevada will be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, it looks for the moment like Iowa is the most plausible candidate among the supposed “Obama states” to surprise everyone on election night. Of the last five polls taken there, Obama leads in two, Romney leads in one, and two more are tied. And Romney’s giving the state plenty of attention: Remember, his big economic speech tomorrow will be delivered in Ames. If New Hampshire falls through, Iowa could replace it. Imagine The One winning squeakers in NH and Ohio but losing the presidency anyway as Iowa and Wisconsin come through for Romney. Awesome.

Just one little hitch in all of this via Brendan Loy: What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

I spoke this morning with my father, a retired elections bureaucrat in Connecticut, and he made the excellent point that the week before the election is a very busy for folks like him in his old job, and for registrars of voters, town clerks and the like. They’re testing voting machines, printing ballots or other critical papers, and doing all sorts of other mundane tasks that are critical to assuring a smooth Election Day. If the impact of the storm wipes out all or part of that critical “prep week,” then even if things are relatively “back to normal” by Election Day (by no means a given; see below), there would likely be an invisible storm impact in the form of additional chaos, “irregularities” and all manner of disruptions at the polls — failed voting machines, missing ballots, etc. — simply because the officials had to cut short their preparation, so more mistakes will inevitably happen…

Sandy is by no means equivalent to Katrina, but it could certainly lead to evacuation orders this weekend for coastal and flood-prone areas in its target zone, and it’s conceivable that those evacuation orders might not be lifted for some time after the storm if power outages, downed trees and power lines, inland flooding, etc. create a witch’s brew of unsafe conditions in the affected areas. If those areas happen to be located in a swing state, or a state with a major Senate race, it is easy to imagine decisions about when to lift evacuation orders becoming intensely politicized.

A nightmare scenario for Democrats would be an evacuation of portions of Philadelphia, which would not only endanger Bob Casey, but would take a state that Obama seems likely to win unless he’s losing swing states across the board (and thus the PA outcome doesn’t really matter), and turn it into a potentially decisive tipping-point state that could hand Romney the presidency even if he loses Ohio and most of the other swing states.

Loy also wonders what’ll happen if the power is still down in various polling places along the eastern seaboard on election day. One word, my friends: Thunderdome. Actually, two more words: Traffic goldmine. I won’t benefit since, as a New Yorker, I’ll apparently be underwater by then, but it’s nice to know that Ed, MKH, and Erika will have weeks of content from the unholy legal and political clusterfark in the aftermath.

Via the Daily Caller, here’s Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats who are considering not voting this year.

Blowback

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The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio. If there was any kind of break for Romney there, and he took the lead in the polls, you would see incredible confidence among Conservatives, which would lead to more volunteers and boots on the ground. It would also be a real kick in the a** to the Dems and would thoroughly dis-spirit them.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Yep… the Rs are totally dispirited. That is why Romney raised $111 million dollars in about two weeks and has Obama sized crowds at his rallies.

Perhaps I should make a modification to my prior post. This is Texas. We don’t sit around and whine – we get back up, dust ourselves off and get back to work after a major storm. I’m not sure that the same would be true of northeastern metropolitan areas.

Flooding, roads blocked by trees, power outages can take a LONG time to be straightened out, which could deter the voters, or render machines inoperable… etc.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

That’s what I was going to say.

Depending on where it hits and how hard, cleanup could be massive. When we lived in NH a heavy rainstorm would flood areas in MA. Power outages happen at the drop of a hat. If there is heavy flooding and trees down, it will take a while to recover.

Thanks for the clarification, though I knew what you meant. Normally, I would ignore him, I was just surprised that any rational person could have interpreted my comment the way he did. But then, I’ve seen no evidence that Gumby fits into that category.

Ok, this storm (Sandy) is scheduled to hit (or not) this coming week Oct 30th-31st, the election is Nov 6th, tell me why all the teeth knashing over it effecting the election that is a week after?

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Because a worst-case scenario puts a huge portion of the East Coast in crisis-mode for what could be more than a week. Basically, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and portions of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia (with peripheral but potentially significant impact on NY/New England, or the Carolinas, depending on landfall) will be in recovery mode, and large swaths of the population will be without power for a significant amount of time.

One of the reasons this particular scenario is so bad is because there could be over a foot of wrap-around snow in Western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Eastern Ohio. If that happens, then those utility crews that would normally be coming to help us in the Mid-Atlantic will be busy picking up the pieces from their own disaster. A foot of snow with leaves still on the trees, combined with significant winds, means massive power outages.

Sooo … all that help that usually descends on hurricane ravaged areas will be unavailable. Or it’ll be coming from even further away than normal. It’s going to be a massive regional recovery effort.

And that ain’t happening within a week. So, imagine what happens if significant chunks of the mid-Atlantic are still without power on the 6th. How do people vote? Will people even want to vote? Loy actually spends quite a bit of space discussing it. It’s not an unreasonable scenario to examine, if the worst-case situation occurs. That is, of course, the premise of this whole naval gazing exercise.

By the way–I’ve not seen any discussion of this particular wrinkle wrt outside help with utility recovery efforts. I don’t think anyone’s picked up on the magnitude of the problem yet. Again, it is worst-case, and we don’t have a solid grip on the likelihood. But I’m really surprised that nobody’s discussing it.

“Ralston is horribly partisan, but more than anything, he likes to be right and he knows Nevada politics better than anyone. If he says early voting is giving Obama the necessary cushion to win, believe it.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

HAHA

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM”

Did you follow Ralston during the Reid/Angle race? When you had polls coming out showing Reid in trouble (one from Ras, who pooped his pants in 2010), he gave exact internal numbers showing Reid was comfortably ahead, and where his winning margin would come from.

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio. If there was any kind of break for Romney there, and he took the lead in the polls, you would see incredible confidence among Conservatives, which would lead to more volunteers and boots on the ground. It would also be a real kick in the a** to the Dems and would thoroughly dis-spirit them.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

This is why you fail. We are conservatives, and we ARE excited. We aren’t tied to your narrow view point that is formulated by picking apart and harping on any piece of data that suits your trolling purposes.

I can only imagine that hardcore Las Vegas will go for Obama. But everywhere else, I can’t see him winning. If the Vegas union goons put him over the top, however, it IS hard to imagine the GOP downticketers winning.

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Hardcore Vegans are mostly Republican (don’t forget that mafia had as much love for unions as any hard working person these days and once settled here are more Republican in numbers). Communist scum here have either moved recently from CA, state they destroyed beyond comprehension, or union scum comprised of many illegals.

There are a few Hussein signs we’ve seen, but for the most part its R/R signs and bumper stickers. One big issue here is pothead communists, aka “libertarians”, who have completely usurped GOP and insist they represent “people’s choice”, which is way apart from reality. A good number of them will vote for Hussein. At least I don’t have to see “Herr Doktor” sign on his now ex office along I215 in Henderson.

Early voting shows liberals roughly 20K ahead, we all know that GOP voters usually vote late. And as I keep on pointing out, Congress seats seem to be safely in GOP hands, numbers wise, polls wise, whatever wise. Main reason I think that media manipulate the numbers here to create an illusion their Idiot in Chief is winning. Same as they seem to be doing in OH now.

Obama is going to end up with 47% of the vote… BTW, apparently Romney is now at 50% in the ABC News tracking poll. Third poll that has him hitting the magic 50% threshold. Still would like to see a flip in either WI or OH, but I’m actually feeling confident. The best idea would probably be to park Ryan in WI and tell him to win it.

I’m not sure that the same would be true of northeastern metropolitan areas.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

They do get back to work, but it’s a small area geographically and heavily populated. And if you’re not in a city in NE, then you’ll generally find yourself surrounded by trees and mountains. They’re also used to snow storms, not hurricanes. I shudder to think of the huge number of trees that could come down.

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 5:16 PM

There won’t be enough power crews for New England. Even an ice storm stretches them to days of recovery.

“Yep… the Rs are totally dispirited. That is why Romney raised $111 million dollars in about two weeks and has Obama sized crowds at his rallies.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM”

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

And since Romney is not going to win NV or WI, the only way to win the election goes through Ohio.

I can easily see Obama winning by a 270-268 EV margin. He would lose CO, NH and IA, but win WI and NV.

Again, Ras is oversampling Dems again. What they see is not what I see here on the ground.

NC is Romney/Ryan Territory. Now go get WI, OH, MI, CO, and whoever else is close out there.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

I hadn’t seen a new poll for NC—what was the sample?

I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.

I’m in TX and already early voted.

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

Obama is going to end up with 47% of the vote… BTW, apparently Romney is now at 50% in the ABC News tracking poll. Third poll that has him hitting the magic 50% threshold. Still would like to see a flip in either WI or OH, but I’m actually feeling confident. The best idea would probably be to park Ryan in WI and tell him to win it.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I think as these last days go on, and the sheer level of despicable desperation that is being shown by the Preezy, at the last minute people are going to break hard for Romney. It is time that we restore dignity and respect to the Office of POTUS.

“I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.”

Philly’s power company is notoriously terrible about getting power back on after big storms. I guarantee there is a war room in City Hall right now working on this.

If the snow hits anywhere it will be bad. We had a Halloween snowstorm last year and it was horrible. I lost 4 entire tress and parts of 4 more. Took weeks to clean up. Power lines were down everywhere.

Funny, I’ve always kind of gotten a Jerry Springfield crossed with every one of the co-hosts of The View vibe when watching him, whether 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 or 2010. I think I’d call him self-inflated, not smart.

There is nothing optimistic about Obama. There is no reason for independents and late deciders to vote for Obama. There is only the hope of convincing people to not vote for Romney. That is your mission. You are failing.

“I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.”

Luntz is a smart man.

Brutal hairpiece, but a smart man.

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I already voted. So it’s not like you are going to discourage me and get me to stay home. Sorry.

There is nothing optimistic about Obama. There is no reason for independents and late deciders to vote for Obama. There is only the hope of convincing people to not vote for Romney. That is your mission. You are failing.

I am in a very sweet spot in Virginia where Romney signs and stickers absolutely dominate Obama. In fact, the few Obama signs I have seen are scattered off the road, as if one volunteer just got nutty one night. Romney signs are planted in front yards. The big 5-foot Romney yard billboard signs are here too, I have seen several of those in larger yards.

I love when The Anti-Nostradamus makes definitive statements. If you ever want to win in Vegas, take him along and bet the opposite of what he suggests.

Yesterday:

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Rasmussen Today:

Romney: 50

Obama: 47

No change

Yesterday:

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

I’m in Prince William County, a swing county. Knocking on doors for Romney again on Saturday and (Sandy permitting) going to see Romney in Haymarket on Sunday. Hubby and I are also both volunteering for the taskforce on election day.

Register and sign in at Mitt.com whatever, and click on Events and States and see you can have the kind of fun GINA had in Red Rock…almost, ok, she says Red Rock is special to her…Paul, Mitt at different locations working down to the election in Charlottesville in Richmond and even down at the Beach where it all started.

If Rasmussen has PA at 51-46 with a 4.5% margin of error, I don’t think Obama is probably all that comfortable with it. Isn’t PA a state that went to Obama by over 10 points even with McCain making a last minute push? If it’s at +5 with a 4.5% margin of error, that is not a good poll for Bamby.

In 2008 I felt what would happen.. And I was right….
In 2010 I felt, and knew what would happen.. And I was right…
In 2012 I also feel it.. and smell it.. This won’t be close.. I suspect I will be right..

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The thing to keep in mind here in NC, is that Obama won by .4 (that’s point four percentage points when he was rock star/messiah in 2008. We’ve had the Bev Purdue (D) governor and Dem scandals pretty much rock this state.

Sorry, but I’m going to say for Obama, this state is a lost cause for him.

Ahahahahaha, says the same idiot who knows so little about Ohio that he thinks the auto bailout actually helps Obama in Ohio. Ah, the sweet smell of pure panic, desperation, and flailing about hoping to do anything to depress voter turnout. Sorry, but I think people are even more po’d than they were in 2010. Each individual person would have to be struck by lighting to get people on our side to not vote.

Umm.. Yeah.. Obama isn’t ahead in OH or WI by more than a point. I sense that OH is probably tied and moving toward Mittens. WI is down by a point; however, if Ryan pulls his usual totals in the 1st Congressional District, then I’m not sure how they lose.

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

And since Romney is not going to win NV or WI, the only way to win the election goes through Ohio.

I can easily see Obama winning by a 270-268 EV margin. He would lose CO, NH and IA, but win WI and NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Except that the polls are still moving toward Romney. Obama has already lost Ohio. All the polls there are over skewed toward Dems who are dispirited and won’t vote this time around. Obama can’t without Ohio. He’s campaigning in NH where it absolutely won’t help him. So why is he there? To stop Romney from winning with WI. That means Obama himself knows that WI is likely to go to Romney. Obama has even gone to WI. Why would he do that in a blue state?

So if Obama loses CO, NH and IA, he’s definitely not winning WI or NV. The trend will be too strong against it.

I love your posts BTW. They are so demoralizing for Dems and so uplifting for Republicans because you’re notions are so ridiculous, you’d have to live in a bubble to believe them. Seriously, you claim that Obama can lose countless swing states and still win with these two blue states, YAY!!! HAHAHAHA

Dude looks like he’s going to have a lot of fun with the little kids on Halloween this year.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I’m no fan of Jim Messina, and I know that this has become an internet meme, but this kind of personal, vicious attack is something I expect from the left and from basement-dwelling 4channers. We should not stoop so low.

If one follows Rasmussen now, one will see Romney leading nationally and in swing states by 2% AND achieved 50%. So, the point about Rasmussen is well taken. He also predicted Obamas win in 2008. His numbers also say Obama loses in ’12. So, yes, Rasmussen is generally right.

Luntz NEVER said that Ohio was gone and Rush wasn’t depressed. Instead of getting your talking points from Axelfraud and John Wayne Messina, maybe, you should actually listen.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I heard Luntz, too. And he NEVER said Zero was going to take OH and WI. NEVER said that. And Rush today took a call from a woman from Texas who has gone to VA to campaign for Romney and she was sort of chastising Rush for being “too optimistic.” She was worried that Romney optimism will depress the Romney vote on election day. Rush just said, “Sorry. I’m optimistic. Can’t help it.”

When O-bots like poke-me have to LIE like he always does, what does that tell one about where he really believes the state of the race is. And I happen to think that guy is a paid OFA useful idiot, so he has probably seen Zero’s campaign melting down for two weeks now.

Number two, you said Jim Messina looks like “he’s going to have a lot of fun with the little kids on Halloween this year.” You may have meant that he looks like another person who would have fun with little kids, but that’s not what you said.

Number three, I’ve never been much impressed by the argument, “yeah, but the other side is so much worse, so my behavior should be excused.”

Do I think what you said was the worst thing ever? No. But it was an inappropriate personal attack on a guy because of his appearance. You can tap-dance around that if you like, but I’m not going to ignore it just because we likely share many of the same political views.

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The thing to keep in mind here in NC, is that Obama won by .4 (that’s point four percentage points when he was rock star/messiah in 2008. We’ve had the Bev Purdue (D) governor and Dem scandals pretty much rock this state.

Sorry, but I’m going to say for Obama, this state is a lost cause for him.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:45 PM”

Ya, I was kind of surprised RCP had it back as a swing state. I have a friend in NC and she said the same thing–that enthusiasm is for Romney.

And Rush today took a call from a woman from Texas who has gone to VA to campaign for Romney and she was sort of chastising Rush for being “too optimistic.” She was worried that Romney optimism will depress the Romney vote on election day. Rush just said, “Sorry. I’m optimistic. Can’t help it.”

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

That woman on Rush’s show was quite the hand wringer, wasn’t she?

I think if you go back and look at Lunz’s success rate, you’ll see that it’s not that good. Me, I can’t stand him- I think he really likes the sound of his own voice, and that damn toupe just makes me shudder.

Romney will win Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. Obama is underperforming in all of these states.

Clued-in Dems are very scared as Dem campaign strategists are already starting to make excuses and point fingers at each other. Some have even been attempting to blame Bill Clinton for Obama’s impending defeat.