Yield curve

First point is that Greenspan in 2001 and Bernanke in 2007 had cut the rates at the exactly same point in the yield curve.

Second, the chart doesn’t show that recession is ahead of us – it shows like the recession is already behind 🙂 The chart looks like the summer of 2001, when the “official” recession was not far from over.

I think the answer is in the decline of the dollar, strong foreign economies and hence strong export. I can’t give “GDP minus export” numbers but I think they will be recessionary for a while. The very positive fact is the U.S. economy is very diverse and unlike some countries the exports are spread across the board. We are exporting a little bit of everything, nothing too much, nothing too little. The very few industries that are not exporting anything (like real estate) are already deeply in the recession.

We are hanging on the bubble-gum. At some point the growth in exports will slowdown and this is when the party will end (we may be only few weeks from that point)