In ATOM terms, the progress of Tesla is an example of everything from how all technological disruptions are interlinked, to how each disruption is deflationary in nature. It is not just about the early progress towards electric cars, removal of the dealership layer of distribution, or the recent erratic progress of semi-autonomous driving. Among other things, Tesla has introduced lower-key but huge innovations such as remote wireless software upgrades of the customer fleet, which itself is a paradigm shift towards rapidly-iterating product improvement. In true ATOM form, the accelerating rate of technological change is beginning to sweep the automobile along with it.

When Tesla eventually manages to release a sub-$35,000 vehicle, the precedents set in dealership displacement, continual wireless upgrades, and semi-autonomous driving will suddenly all be available across hundreds of thousands of cars, surprising unprepared observers but proceeding precisely along the expected ATOM trajectory.

Comments

It seems like the Model 3, to be released late 2017, early 2018 satisfies the prediction from 2006 of a 4 door sedan disrupting the mid priced car market. Do you know why the timeline is ~5 years later than the 2012-2013 timeline from the 2006 article ? Was it just the Great Recession slowing everything down ?

There was not enough data at the time. But this is also why every one of Ray Kurzweil's predictions is consistently behind by the same 5-8 years (i.e. the last 16 years since 2000 has only had 10-11 years worth of progress).

Reversion of the technological rate of change to the trendline will happen, and the 2017 crisis will precipitate that.