Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- February 26, 2012):

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Take a week off and many things can become clear. In Fox's case, it's now clear that both Alcatraz and The Finder are more likely to be canceled than renewed at the end of this season as their ratings keep falling. Note that while their most recent ratings have caused the reassessment, their averages above have yet to "catch up".

Is this good news for Terra Nova? Your guess is as good as mine. Remember all that TV media chatter about how Fox had to make a decision on the show in January? I called BS on that timing then, and figured Fox could hold off longer than the conventional wisdom accepted they could. It's almost March, and still no decision from Fox! Be certain that the instant a decision is communicated to the producers it will become public information. I still make Terra Nova a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation with no new data likely to reach me until the decision is known.

For the crazy person who keeps emailing me demanding that Napoleon Dynamite be made likely to be canceled, direct your crazy elsewhere. Its ratings are no worse now than Bob's Burgers was last spring when it was renewed, so its still a "toss up" for more.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** shows that have not yet aired new episodes in 2012 have their Fall 2011 predictions listed instead.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.