The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

From the Ethics of the Fathers: "He [Rabbi Tarfon] used to say, it is not incumbent upon you to complete the task, but you are not exempt from undertaking it."

Monday, January 7, 2013

The Iraqi Spring and the Iranian Autumn

by Tariq Alhomayed

The leader of the Sadrist trend, Muqtada al-Sadr,
warned that “the Iraqi Spring is coming” after Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki threatened to use force to disperse a protest along the
international road in Anbar province ten days ago. So is the Iraqi
Spring really coming? The simple answer is that the Iraqi Spring will be
the Iranian Autumn.

Al-Maliki has not overcome the storm he is
facing; rather it has transformed into a hurricane, and those that will
fall this time are the Iranians, not the Iraqis. Tehran certainly would
not be able to bear the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime and the
uprooting of its ally al-Maliki in Iraq, for this would be a tough
Iranian Autumn, especially with the Iranian presidential elections
around the corner, not to mention other issues soon to come to a head
such as the Iranian nuclear program. All this could push Iran to
accelerate the fall of al-Maliki, before the fall of al-Assad, by
replacing al-Maliki as Iraq’s Prime Minister with another, more
acceptable figure. This is what many in Iraq must be alert to,
especially some of the Sunnis there. They must distance themselves from
such sectarianism and not raise pictures of Saddam Hussein in their
protests. Just as al-Sadr warned them himself, and he is right, it is
possible to turn the Iraqi storm into a hurricane to uproot al-Maliki,
even before he uses the force he is threatening.

Al-Sadr has
entered into the anti-Maliki demonstrations, and certainly the Kurds
will follow, especially with al-Maliki’s continual threats towards them.
Of course the Sadrists and the Kurds understand - along with other
Iraqi political forces - the seriousness of what al-Maliki is doing in
Iraq. These factors could all force Iran to take a step, along the lines
of “jumping before you are pushed”, to replace al-Maliki with another
figure capable of achieving the minimum level of Iraqi consensus,
especially as al-Maliki has burned his bridges with the bulk of the
Iraqi political trends. Iran, which is doing all it can today to prevent
the inevitable fall of al-Assad, cannot afford the fall of another
strategic ally, Iraq. This would be a difficult blow to take for the
mullah’s regime in Iran, which, as noted above, has other important and
decisive concerns, whether externally or internally.

The fall of
al-Maliki, as threatened by al-Sadr through his claim that “the Iraqi
Spring is coming”, means that Iran’s hands in the region will be cut
off, and the magic would turn against the magician. Just as Iran thought
there would be no Syria without al-Assad, Tehran could soon find itself
without any state-level allies in the region, including Iraq and Syria.

Thus,
as long as the active Iraqi parties mobilize in a coordinated manner,
and with al-Maliki countering the demonstrations with force, and some of
the Sunnis in Iraq realizing that the time now requires intelligence
not emotion, especially when it comes to raising pictures of Saddam
Hussein and other divisive acts, then we should not rule out the
possibility that al-Maliki could fall at the hands of Iran, before the
fall of the tyrant al-Assad. This would be in order to preserve the
minimum of Iran’s interests in the region. Yet the fall of al-Maliki at
the hands of the Iraqis, through the so-called “Iraqi Spring” that
al-Sadr has warned of, will likely represent the Iranian Autumn, and
this is what wise minds everywhere must encourage!