Welcome to the first 2013 edition of Sporting News’ weekly Field of 68 projection. As in years past, this is a projection of what the NCAA Tournament selection committee would do based on what’s happened so far this season.

Bubble watch

Could Miami play its way into a No. 3 seed? (AP Photo)

As colleague Mike DeCourcy pointed out after Kentucky lost at home to Texas A&M on Saturday—who would have predicted that in the preseason?—the Wildcats are in serious trouble despite loads of NBA talent. Their NCAA Tournament resume is pretty bleak right now. They played a very solid non-conference schedule (games against Duke, Louisville, Maryland, Notre Dame and Baylor), but only managed to beat Maryland. Look at it this way: According to the RPI numbers, Kentucky has the 64th-ranked non-conference SOS, and has just one win against a top 150 opponent; Quinnipiac, which is just 5-10 this season, has the 66th-ranked NCSOS and two top-150 wins. Obviously, there are other factors at play, but that’s not a good comparison for the defending national champions. Kentucky, which was one of the last teams in the field this week, has plenty of work ahead to feel secure about a tournament bid.

Toughest to seed: Miami (Fla.)

The Hurricanes have been hard to read this season because they’ve rarely been at full strength. They entered the season with rising expectations, but lost to Florida Gulf Coast without point guard Durand Scott in their second game of the year. Then, in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, they were crushed by Arizona—no shame in that—and lost in overtime to a good-not-great Indiana State squad. They didn’t have big man Reggie Johnson (broken left thumb) for either of those games, and he’s still out of the lineup. Which is why their 3-0 start to the ACC is so surprising—wins at North Carolina and Georgia Tech and a home win Sunday against Maryland. They’re ranked fifth in the RPI and 19th in the kenpom.com ratings. In one of the rare games when they were at full strength, they beat Michigan State. Miami hosts Duke on Jan. 23; win that one and a seed in the 3-4 range is very possible.

Easiest to seed: Louisville

The only question was whether the Cardinals would be the first or second overall seed (it came down to Duke or Louisville). Louisville’s only loss was to the Blue Devils in the Battle 4 Atlantis, when big man Gorgui Dieng was out with a wrist injury. The Cardinals don’t have the same resume depth as Duke (see Injury issues below), but they were an absolute lock for a spot on the No. 1 seed line this week.

One-bid league spotlight

The injury to Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum (broken foot) robbed us all of a fantastic race for the top seed in the Patriot League between his Mountain Hawks and Mike Muscala’s Bucknell squad. Both teams are very capable of winning a couple of NCAA Tournament games this season—there’s a chance McCollum could return in March—but both narrowly missed opportunities to claim non-conference wins that would have put them in the at-large conversation. Bucknell lost by two points at Missouri and Lehigh lost by four at VCU.

Injury issues

There is little question Duke owns the best tournament resume. Their list of conquests reads like a Top 25 poll; the Blue Devils own victories over Louisville, Minnesota, Ohio State, VCU, Kentucky and Temple, not to mention wins against solid mid-majors Santa Clara and Davidson. But senior big man Ryan Kelly is out with a foot injury, and on Monday’s teleconference with reporters, coach Mike Krzyzewski termed it a “long-term” injury. If he’s done for the year, the Blue Devils are a different team than the one that racked up those victories earlier this season. His versatility on both ends of the court—he’s 6-11 but plays more like a small forward—was glaringly absent against N.C. State on Saturday. It’s not a coincidence that Duke’s first loss of the year happened while Kelly was on the sidelines with crutches.

Where they are seeded

Note: Automatic bids, listed in parenthesis, are given to the team with the best conference record (through Sunday’s games), with overall record used to break ties.