Tuesday From the Betting Window: Offenses Should Struggle in Detroit

By Anthony Stalter September 18, 2018 5:02 pm

I only posted one MLB play last night and thanks to the Reds’ ineptitude versus Wade Miley, it did not cash. The Brewers did their part to help hit the over (the total was set at 9) by scoring eight runs on their own but Cincinnati was shut out…at Miller Park, no less. That loss dropped my MLB record to 50-27-1 (65%).

Let’s see if we can’t get back in the win column tonight.

919 Minnesota Twins at 920 Detroit Tigers, 6:10 p.m. CT

Bettors are hammering the over in this matchup. Not only are 69% of the betting tickets on the over, but 84% of the money is as well. So why did the total drop from 9 down to 8.5, then? On the surface, this is a pitching matchup between a pair of gas cans in Jake Odorizzi and Daniel Norris. Odorizzi owns a 4.41 ERA on the year while Norris has posted a 6.14 ERA. That said, Odorizzi’s biggest issue is that is he gives up too many home runs. Enter the Tigers, who have hit the third-fewest home runs of any team in baseball this season.

Norris, meanwhile, has only made five starts this season so don’t stress too much over his ERA. Here’s what we should focus on: The Twins have been awful against left-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup owns a strikeout rate of 26% against lefties. So, while the perception is that this should be a high-scoring game, the reality is that it’s the offenses that could struggle. A lot of people will look at that 8.5 and jump on the over but I see a flat game that stays just under the total.