The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.

China can move up to the center stage of the global economy, if it succeeds in fostering innovation, human capital and the quality of institutions. The economic gains could be as high as USD 6.5 trn of additional value added in 2025, which is equivalent to one-third of US GDP.

Low commodity prices have been weighing on economic growth and the public finances, but the external position is expected to remain relatively strong. The latter is due to a flexible exchange rate regime and adequate monetary policy.

In case of a Brexit, a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty is likely, hurting the British financial sector and business investments. Other risks stem from the high private debt and the banking sector.