A running discussion on the Cincinnati Reds and everything else in the baseball universe.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Top Prospect List: #1 Jay Bruce, rf

In 2007, Jay Bruce took a massive step forward, excelling at three separate levels and earning Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year Award. At this point, he is the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball. Not only did Bruce excel, but he made it look easy.

The Reds selected Bruce out of West Brook High School in Beaumont, Texas with the 12th overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. The 2005 draft was an epic draft loaded with talent, including Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, and Jay Bruce. As good as all those guys are, the 20 year old Bruce certainly belongs in that class.

2007 SEASON

Bruce's ascension up the ladder mirrored that of Johnny Cueto. He started out the season in High-A ball, where he hit .325/.379/.586/.965 in 268 At Bats. He hit 11 homers and had a 67/24 K/BB ratio. He had an impressive line drive percentage of 21%. The Reds took mercy on the pitchers in the Florida State League by promoting Bruce to Double-A.

At Chattanooga, Bruce continued on his offensive tear posting even better numbers against more advanced competition. He posted a line of .333/.405/.652/1.057 in 66 At Bats. He had a 20/8 K/BB ratio and hit 4 homeruns. In addition, he had a line drive percentage of 17%. Yet again, the Reds took mercy on the opposition, promoting Bruce to Triple-A.

At Louisville, Bruce continued his assault on the opposing pitchers, hitting an impressive .305/.358/.567/.925 in 187 At Bats. He had a 48/15 K/BB ratio with 11 homeruns. At Triple-A, Bruce had a line drive percentage of 22%.

Bruce rocketed up the ladder and excelling at each and every stop along the way. At this point, he has little left to prove in the minors. He has a tremendous swing that generates a lot of line drives, which are much more likely to fall in for hits than other types of balls in play. Just about the only weakness in Bruce's game is his propensity to strike out. However, he certainly has been tremendously productive, so the type of outs he makes is not a major concern. Ideally, he'll reduce his strikeout rate, but his production is what's important.

OFFENSE

Bruce has quick hands and a smooth swing that keeps the bat in the strikezone for a long time. His hands are so quick that he has little problem turning on 95 mph fastballs. He is not solely a pull hitter and he can effectively go the other way with pitches on the outer half.

Bruce's offensive skills have quickly made him one of the best hitters in the minors. He has good pitch recognition skills for a young hitter. He utilizes a wide batting stance, which gives him a solid foundation. His swing is fairly level and produces a lot of hard line drives, which is also a result of his tremendous bat speed. He has good hand action in his swing and maintains good balance throughout. In addition, the ball really jumps off his bat. He's the type of hitter that you can tell is special just by watching him in batting practice. If you saw his line drive in the futures game, then you know you can also tell that he's special just by the sound of the ball coming off the bat. That hit sounded like a rifle shot coming off the bat.

Bruce also has slightly above average speed, which may result in double digit stolen bases. All in all, there is very little on offense that Bruce cannot do.

Bruce is going to be a special offensive player for a long, long time.

DEFENSE

On defense, Bruce actually prefers to play centerfield, which he can handle adequately, but his range plays better in rightfield. Bruce also possesses above average arm strength and good accuracy. Given the Reds crowded, yet consistently unsettled outfield, Bruce could play any of the three positions, but ultimately his home is likely to be rightfield.

FUTURE

Bruce is a legitimate 5-tool talent who has yet to reach his 21st birthday. Bruce should be an MLB superstar for years to come. For the first time in a long time, the Reds have the best prospect in baseball. Bruce will be ready for the majors at some point in 2008, but he may have to wait for a starting job until after the 2008 season and the departure of Ken Griffey Jr.

Bruce's superstar future makes him the easy choice to top the list as the #1 prospect.

4 comments:

Lark, nice info here... I am a hopeless Reds fan having grown up in Cincy and still watching them flail. It really caught my eye when I recently saw that the team is so high on Bruce they've got Freel and potentially Hamilton on the trading block. I'd prefer seeing Dunn turned into a 1B, keeping the immensely talented Hamilton in CF and opening a LF spot for Bruce.

Thank you kindly! I couldn't agree more about Hamilton. Dealing him now would be a huge mistake. The future of this team is Hamilton and Bruce. That's the foundation for the future and that's who they should build around. Each has an MVP caliber skill set. The idea of having both patrolling the outfield and in the lineup for the next 5-6 years is a very pleasant thought.

Personally, I'd like to see Hamilton in left and Bruce in right in 2009. That would open up centerfield allowing the Reds to plug an actual leadoff hitter into centerfield (Sam Fuld? Reggie Willits?).

As for Bruce, he truly is a special talent. You only have to see him play once to be convinced. His swing is pretty. It will rack up a lot of line drives, but his very impressive bat speed will also create a lot of homeruns. The ball even sounds different coming off the bat.

From one long suffering Reds fan to another, don't give up just yet!! Bruce and Bailey will give us a big boost in the near future, so things are looking up!!

I agree that trading away Josh Hamilton was a massive mistake. Hopefully, it isn't one that we repeat. I have real concerns about Edinson's ability to be a successful MLB pitcher, but given the price we paid we have no choice but to hope that he does.

At the very least, it seems like Krivsky is smart enough to not trade Bruce away. If he was willing to do so, then we would have been the front runner for Erik Bedard.

Thankfully, he didn't put Bruce on the block and seems to understand that he has tremendous value. Unfortunately, he didn't do the same with Josh Hamilton, which is a move that still stings and is likely to haunt the organization.

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Blessed (or is it cursed) to be a Reds fan. I've loved baseball as long as I can remember. Played it until they told me I couldn't anymore. Now, always thinking on it.
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