The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

From the Ethics of the Fathers: "He [Rabbi Tarfon] used to say, it is not incumbent upon you to complete the task, but you are not exempt from undertaking it."

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Sunday, May 8, 2016

Will the Next American President Be Friends with Saudi Arabia? - Michael Curtis

by Michael Curtis

There
were and still remain mutual interests, but changes have occurred.

Just friends, but not like before
just about sums up the present relationship between the Obama
administration and Saudi Arabia. It is not a divorce, but rather an
estrangement or separation in a less than happy marriage. In happier,
days the two countries have been involved economically, politically, and
militarily. Now the former Saudi intelligence chief has called for a
"recalibration" of relationships. The next U.S. President must attend
to the issue.In
1938, Standard Oil of California (Chevron) found oil in eastern Saudi
Arabia. In 1945, President Franklin D. Roosevelt on February 14 met
aboard a cruiser in the Suez Canal with Saudi king Abdul Aziz ibn Saud
who brought eight sheep on board to cook for dinner. Military ties were
enhanced in the common resistance against the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan in 1979-1989, in the Gulf crisis in 1991, and in the war
against Saddam Hussein in 2003.

There
were and still remain mutual interests, but changes have occurred. For
the U.S., the oil of Saudi Arabia was once vital, but the U.S. is now
less dependent on oil imports. For the Saudis, the purchase of U.S.
weaponry, now said to be at least $95 billion, has been and remains
crucial, but the Saudis are less dependent on the U.S. for military
security.

Cooperation
continues. The Saudis have been involved in the U.S.-led air strikes
against ISIS targets in Syria, thus symbolizing that the response to
ISIS is international, not simply Western. The U.S. has supplied
intelligence and logistical support to the Saudi campaign against the
Houthi rebels in Yemen. The two countries cooperate in intelligence
sharing against terrorist activity in the Middle East.

At
the same time, differences have become more pronounced, leading
President Barack Obama to refer to the Saudis as "our so-called allies."
Part of the reason is that Saudi Arabia, under the new king, Salman,
has recognized that that the Obama administration is reluctant to become
involved in a Middle East conflict, as was shown in the refusal to take
military action regarding the crossing of the "red line" in Syria in
August 2013, unless the security of the U.S. is threatened.

There
are a considerable number of differences between the Saudis and the
U.S.: Saudi financing of terrorists and Islamist extremism, human rights
abuses, the Obama acceptance of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt, Saudi
actions in the war in Yemen, the Assad regime in Syria, Iran, the
Saudi help to 9/11 terrorists and to al-Qaeda, and Saudi funding of
madrassas with their religious teaching of Wahhabism. Above all, the
Saudis area fearful of what they see as the Obama tilt to Iran and
especially are critical of the Iran nuclear deal.

The
Saudis are therefore playing a more assertive policy – one that
includes the use of military force. The kingdom is able and willing to
play such a role. It has an estimated 268 billion barrels of oil in
reserves, 16 percent of world reserves, and $630 billion in financial
reserves, though it is using about $60 billion a year.

However,
the regime now faces a number of issues, among them the decline in oil
prices from $115 a barrel in 2014 to $35 in 2015, the growth of world
competition in oil production and the increase in fracking by other
countries, the emphasis on reduction of fossil fuels, the disenchanted
young, and the strength of ISIS. Young people, under 30, make up two
thirds of the population, and a considerable number have no jobs. The
unemployment rate is more than 11 percent.

The
key to political and economic changes and plans by the Saudis is the
role of the most influential and energetic member of the ruling family,
the 30-year-old Prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the 80-year-old King
Salman, who became king in January 2015. The prince is deputy crown
prince, defense minister, controller of the economy, and chairman of the
Supreme Council of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil-producing
company, with oil reserves estimated at 261 billion barrels.

In
foreign policy, Saudi Arabia has taken steps independently of U.S.
policy. It had already broken diplomatic relations with Iran and now
seeks militarily to counter Iranian intervention in Yemen and Syria. It
has also tried to create a 34-nation Islamic coalition against
terrorism. Prominent Saudis have met with Russian president Putin and
China's leader, Xi Jinping.

The
Saudis are interested in building a military-industrial complex and a
government-owned military holding company. They propose that at least
50 percent of military purchases go to local industry. In 2015, defense
spending was $87 billon, the third largest amount in the world by a
country.

Proposed
economic changes from the dependence on oil, which accounts for 40
percent of GDP and 80 percent of government revenue, may be more
important. The stated ambition of the prince is to change the economy
from an oil-funded, government-dominated system to a more private
business role, emphasizing privatization and private investment.
Stability depends on the outcome, since Saudi Aramco has played a
dominant role in the domestic economy, in the workforce, in power and
water utilities, in 139 government schools, in health care, and in
approving loans and venture capital investments.

This
will mean changes in Saudi social affairs, since oil accounts for more
than three quarters of state income at about $162 billion. They would
include privatization in areas such as health care and education and
investing in manufacturing and higher taxes on goods. They would also
entail accountability in public administration and the creation of
better universities.

The
next American president must decide whether Saudi Arabia can be
considered an ally of the West or as the home and fountain of Wahhabism,
the most extreme form of Islam. The enigma for the West is whether the
new assertion of power by the political leaders can limit, if not end,
the impact of Wahhabism, with its control over education, judiciary, and
the role of women and its support of terrorist groups.

Any
decision for the U.S. must balance the contribution of the Saudis to
the fight against terrorism with the reality of the continuance of an
oppressive and authoritarian Saudi regime that defines criminal intent
as anything that undermines public order or questions Wahhabism and is
responsible for an increase in beheadings in 2015, as well as the
execution of 47 men on terrorism charges.