West Virginia’s future is dying

June 27, 2011

It's a dubious distinction that serves as a warning of what could well be a continuing trend. For the first time in this nation's history, a state has experienced more deaths than births in an entire decade. That state is West Virginia.

This is the conclusion from a study by a professor at the University of New Hampshire that is entitled: "Natural Decrease in America: More Coffins Than Cradles." Professor Kenneth M. Johnson, who did the study, made it clear that West Virginia so far is the first - and so far the only place - that this has occurred nationwide.

Johnson attributes it to the outward migration of younger people over several generations and said this trend is also evident in the Great Plains. Older residents of the state can recall the exodus here first north to more urban settings - and job opportunities in Ohio and later the move south to Charlotte, N.C., and other southern locations.

Still, it seems impossible to accept since the official 2010 U.S. Census reports that West Virginia's population grew by more than 44,000 between 2000 and 2010. But those numbers include people who were born somewhere else and moved into this state - mostly in the eastern part of West Virginia near the metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C. and Baltimore.

Statisticians attribute part of this trend to the economic recession the latter part of the last decade. The number of babies born from July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2010, was 260,000 less than the number born during the 12-month period ending in June of 2008. That's a 6 percent decline in two years alone.

It was probably inevitable that this news would cause concern that West Virginia could face a shortage in caregivers for this increasingly older population. The first Baby Boomers-those born between 1946 and 1964-are now starting to turn 65 years. So nationally, this country's senior citizen population is expected to climb by 70 percent.

And all the studies agree that rural populations are aging faster nationwide than the more urbanized areas in any state. And more than half of West Virginia's population has always been rural. Other states like Maine and Vermont are confronting the same kinds of issues because those states also are predominantly rural.

When you place these numbers alongside the growing trend by state and federal governments to put the emphasis on in-home care and assisted living in the community for senior citizens instead of more costly nursing home care, the need for a growing number of caregivers is obvious.

West Virginia's official state tegistrar, Gary Thompson, said this state has never had an urban population "over 50 percent." He said he was surprised to learn just how widespread the population decline has been across the United States with nearly 25 percent of counties nationwide experiencing more deaths than births in the past 10 years.

The West Virginia Bureau of Senior Services is already worried that the state's biggest challenge in the next decade may be finding enough competent, qualified caregivers that can enable these aging residents to remain in their own familiar surroundings during their final years.

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It doesn't figure to alter the outcome of the upcoming special general election to choose a governor for the remainder of the current four-year term, but the addition of two more candidates last week proved that a special primary isn't the only legal way to get on that October ballot.

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, the Democrat nominee, remains the favorite and Republican nominee Bill Maloney's his primary opposition. Bob Henry Baber, the Mountain Party candidate, doesn't figure to be anywhere close to these two in the final tally.

Independent candidate Maria Ingels of Mason County, a 38-year-old public school counselor, and Harry Bertram, a 51-year-old railroad engineer from Morgantown who represents the American Third Position Party, both secured enough signatures to qualify for the Oct. 4 special general election ballot.

Bertram submitted 3,760 signatures on his nominating petition to the Secretary of State's office May 20, one day before the deadline for ballot access petitions to be filed. Ingels collected 1,954 signatures, also well above the 1,765 minimum required by law for this special election and enough for Ingels to obtain a waiver of the $1,500 filing fee.

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The good news is that the latest round of bids for the 7,500 limited video lottery licenses (LVL) offered by the West Virginia Lottery Commission totaled nearly $68.7 million, compared to the first round of bidding a decade ago when 9,000 licenses were sold for high bids totaling only $22.8 million. This money goes directly into the state's general revenue fund to help avoid any increase in general state taxes.

The bad news is that these licenses are for a 10-year period so it's only an average of less than $7 million for the annual state budget operation over the next decade.

The Lottery Commission wisely reduced the number of available LVL licenses to 7,500 this year compared to the 9,000 that were available in 2001. As a result, the average amount paid per license jumped from $3,215 10 years ago to $9,157 per license this time.