7 Energy Efficiency Myths Debunked: Guest Analysis

The emotional appeal of energy independence is undeniable—it suggests freedom from foreign oil and, therefore, from foreign entanglements. But over the past few years, veteran energy writer Robert Bryce argues, the political players who are promoting the concept of energy independence have created a set of false promises to bolster their campaigns and give such independence the appearance of credibility. In exclusive excerpts from his new book, Gusher of Lies, Bryce examines the facts behind those promises.

1. Energy independence will mean better energy security for the U.S.

After the hurricanes of 2005 ravaged New Orleans and other areas along the Gulf of Mexico, several damaged refineries in the region were unable to operate. Within a few days of the storm, gasoline shortages hit several southern U.S. cities. The shortages were, thankfully, short-lived. The reason: imported gasoline.

By mid-October 2005, just six weeks after Hurricane Katrina, gasoline imports had soared from 1 million barrels (or less) per day to 1.5 million barrels per day, the highest level recorded up to that time by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) since it began tracking these imports in 1982. Without gasoline from refineries in Venezuela, the Netherlands and elsewhere, the post-Katrina shortages would surely have continued.

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Global commodities markets, like the one for oil, are famous for volatility and sensitivity to world events—even domestic events such as Katrina. To mitigate these effects and to ensure long-term economic security, the United States has no choice but to buy the gasoline it needs on the global market.

History shows that as the U.S. economy has grown more energy efficient, energy consumption has continued to climb. In 1980, the U.S. was using about 15,000 Btu per dollar of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2004, the energy intensity of the U.S. economy had improved dramatically, so that just over 9000 Btu were required for each dollar of GDP. By 2030, the EIA projects that energy intensity will fall to about 5800 Btu per dollar of GDP. But even with that dramatic increase in efficiency, the EIA predicts that overall energy consumption in the U.S. will increase by more than 30 percent, rising from 100.1 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 131.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. (A quadrillion Btu is equal to about 172 million barrels of crude oil.)

3. Federal mandates for higher-mileage cars will result in less fuel consumption, thereby reducing the need for imported oil.

Dramatic increases in America's automobile fuel efficiency will likely only slow the rate of growth of imported oil. Even if Congress mandated that the domestic auto fleet boost its average fuel economy to 44 mpg—a major increase over the 27.5 mpg standard in effect in 2007—America's motor fuel consumption will still grow by 3.7 million barrels per day by 2025.

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Why? America's motor fleet is so huge that replacing it with a more efficient fleet will take decades. In 2005 (the last year for which statistics are available), the U.S. had 247.4 million registered motor vehicles—more than double the number in 1970. And Americans are keeping their vehicles longer, which means that older, less efficient cars will stay on the road for substantially longer periods. The reason is simple: Today's cars are of much higher quality than they were two decades ago.

4. Alternative fuel in the form of corn ethanol will swap in for gasoline, helping the U.S. achieve energy independence.

In 2006, the U.S. produced about 5 billion gallons of corn ethanol, which sounds like a lot of fuel until you realize that Americans use about 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year. That means the corn ethanol represents just 3.5 percent of America's current gasoline consumption.

In early 2007, President Bush pledged that the U.S. would be using 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels by 2017. In June 2007, the Senate passed a bill mandating the production of 36 billion gallons of ethanol per year by 2022.

Regardless of whether the target is 35 billion or 36 billion gallons, it's an awfully ambitious goal—a sevenfold increase in renewable and alternative fuel production in just 15 years. Even if America is able to meet the president's or the Senate's goals, renewable and alt fuels will still account for only about 11 percent of America's projected total oil consumption.

Cellulosic ethanol is fuel distilled from switchgrass, wood, straw and other plant-based feedstocks. Turning a diffuse source of energy like the sugars bound up in switchgrass into a more concentrated form of energy like ethanol is always an uphill battle. The lightest grade of crude can almost be pumped straight from the oil well into an automobile tank.

By contrast, switchgrass must be mixed with large quantities of water, fermented and then distilled before it can be utilized. And each of those steps takes energy. Some scientists have calculated that the energy returned on energy invested for cellulosic ethanol created from switchgrass results in a 50 percent net energy loss. That is, an investment of 1 Btu produces .50 Btu in return. Corn ethanol results in a net energy loss of 29 percent; that is, for 1 Btu invested, an investor gets 0.71 in return. The energy accounting for gasoline production shows that it yields energy profits of about 600 to 700 percent. Put another way, for 1 Btu invested in crude oil and gasoline production, an investor gets 6 or 7 Btu back. That high rate of return helps explain why oil-based fuels have been used so profitably, for so long. They have very high energy content, are fairly light and are easily managed and transported.

6. A vast electricity transmission grid between the Dakotas and Texas could take wind-generated electricity from where it is best produced to cities where it is needed most, thereby enhancing prospects for energy independence.

By 2010, the U.S. will generate about 50 billion kilowatt-hours per year from wind power. That figure needs to be put in perspective. In 2006, consumer electronics alone—TVs, computers, home theater systems, answering machines and so on—consumed 147 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity.

7. If the U.S. tapped its vast coal reserves effectively with clean and efficient coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology, America would achieve energy independence.

First, CTL plants are enormously expensive. A plant capable of producing just 50,000 barrels of CTL fuel per day will likely cost $4.5 billion. For comparison, an oil refinery capable of processing 200,000 barrels per day costs about $5 billion.

Second, CTL plants, which generally use German technology developed in the 1920s, create huge amounts of air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. In 2005 Toyota issued a report on the "well-to-wheel" carbon dioxide emissions for 23 kinds of motor fuels. Fuel made from coal had the highest carbon dioxide footprint, releasing about 50 percent more carbon dioxide than gasoline. In its Annual Energy Outlook for 2007, the EIA predicted that CTL production in the U.S. would be just 440,000 barrels per day by 2030—less than 2 percent of America's total oil needs.