Planning for a killer flu pandemic makes sense

Some might accuse the administration of being panicky, but now is the critical time to prepare for a deadly avian flu outbreak.

President Bush outlined a $7.1 billion strategy Tuesday to prepare
for a killer flu outbreak. While some critics quickly countered that
the plan falls short of what will be needed to combat a possible
pandemic of bird flu, clearly the administration is moving in the right
direction.

While there's no cause for panic, there's no reason to be
complacent, either. As President Bush recognized, a flu pandemic would
be a major threat. Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, called the possibility of avian flu
spreading "a very ominous situation."

The avian or bird flu virus (H5NI) spread from poultry and birds to
other mammals, such as pigs and cats. In London, researchers found H5N1
in the spinal fluid of a young Vietnamese boy, indicating that the
virus is mutating to the point it can infect the human brain.

So far, this contagious viral disease in animals has not mutated or
combined with other influenza viruses to spread from human to human,
but researchers believe that is only a question of time.

When and if that happens, health experts believe a pandemic is all
but inevitable.

If human-to-human spread of H5NI begins to occur, the result could
cause millions of deaths worldwide. The 1918 flu pandemic killed
between 20 to 40 million people.

President Bush's strategy, unveiled this week, includes overhauling
the nation's vaccine industry. The stockpiles of anti-viral drugs are
at dangerously low levels, about two percent of what would be needed in
an outbreak. Experts recommend the nation should have on hand enough
anti-viral drugs to treat half the population.

President Bush's plan is to stockpile enough vaccine against the
current H5N1 strain to treat 20 million and enough Tamiflu and Relenza
vaccines, which can treat and sometimes prevent flu infection, to treat
another 40 million. Bush's strategy calls for speeding up production of
vaccines, preparing for delivering stockpiles of medicines to patients,
and providing liability protection of makers of a pandemic vaccines.
Among other steps, state and local authorities must begin to update
quarantine laws. Authorities said that signs that a super killer flu is
spreading would prompt travel restrictions.

Those who remember the swine flu scare of the 1970s, which came to
nothing, might think the government is being panicky, but this is the
critical time to prepare for dealing with the threat that the avian flu
pandemic could pose.

The administration's strategy is encouraging. We may need to do
more, depending on developments, but this is a solid start in the right
direction.