Tom Rogan is an American writer and Steamboat Institute fellow based in Washington DC. He's a columnist for The National Review, a contributor to The McLaughlin Group and has written for The Guardian, The Week, The Spectator, The American Spectator, CNN, Fox News, The Washington Times and The Atlantic. He grew up in London and was educated at King's College London and SOAS. He tweets @TomRtweets.

Three observations on the Isis leader's video

Dressed in black robes and spewing hate, Isis leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has emerged from the shadows. In his Friday sermon at the Al-Noree mosque in central Mosul, al-Baghdadi promised not to rest until his Caliphate reigns over Earth.

I have three observations.

1) Isis is led by an fanatical zealot

Salafi-Jihadism is an inherently authoritarian ideology. Nevertheless, under al-Baghdadi, Isis is clearly borderline psychotic. Emphasising his supreme authority and supreme hypocrisy, al-Baghdadi describes the "plague" of his responsibility: "I am the [leader] who presides over you, though I am not the best of you, so if you see that I am right, assist me". In standard jihadist form, al-Baghdadi also claims that Isis victories are ordained: "Allah has bestowed upon [Isis] the grace of victory and conquest … to achieve their goal." Describing himself as the "Imam", al-Baghdadi references the Isis motto: "A book [Koran] that guides and a sword that supports". This quote is noteworthy, it encapsulates Jihadist use of selective Quranic verses to demand fealty (which, as I’ve explained previously, is especially crucial to Isis). The sermon shows al-Baghdadi’s religious absolutism. This is no Salafi-nationalist. Instead, al-Baghdadi is a totalitarian with global, theologically rooted ambitions. As he puts it, the "goal for which Allah created us is not achieved but by empowering the Sharia of Allah and being judged by it and establishing the restrictions, and this is only done with power and authority."

2) Isis is upping its propaganda war

Alongside its many videos of beheadings and crying soldiers digging their own graves, this video illustrates the Isis desire for new recruits. Delivering his sermon, al-Baghdadi is portrayed as a humble servant of righteousness. His producers also make a determined effort to represent the congregation’s diversity. Watch this scene in which the camera slowly pans from older men to a young boy. The messaging is clear: the faithful will endure for eternity. The producer's focus on the congregation’s varied attire is also important. Isis is aware of its reputation for individual intolerance. The video is trying to offer a pretence of tolerance for Mosul’s population.

It’s important to remember that this video isn’t about reality (Isis is destroying Mosul’s historic religious diversity). Rather, it's about selling a convincing message. Correspondingly, the video’s concluding transition into silence indicates how Isis wants to be seen offering reverent dominion of calm religious purpose. In short, that the brutal means justify the ends.

3) Isis is tactically astute, and highly aggressive in strategy

Watching al-Baghdadi, I was struck by the cold emotional certainty in his eyes. This is a man who has no conception of compromise. Still, his sermon also proves that he has learned from the past. Thanks to Snowden, Isis officers have come to understand their extreme vulnerability to intelligence monitoring. Al Arabiya is reporting that Mosul’s phone network was suspended during al-Baghdadi’s speech. Why was it shut down? Because Isis knows that the NSA will have put a drag net over Mosul, and in contrast to their al Qaeda in Iraq predecessors, Isis are mitigating this vulnerability. Additionally, following the al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula format, Isis producers have concealed the identities of senior lieutenants. They want to preserve the secrecy of their networks. The many bodyguards in the mosque are also striking. By stepping out into the public eye, al-Baghdadi can physically assert his successes over the Iraqi government, but he knows that increased publicity endangers his personal security.

Ultimately, this video sermon was al-Baghdadi’s introduction to the world. In his call to "humiliate polytheism and the polytheists [basically anyone who doesn’t accept his authority]" and for God to keep his jihadists "aim true", there’s little doubt about the future al-Baghdadi seeks. He warns his followers that they should not expect "luxury, security, and relaxation" in the years ahead.