Inexcusable (Warriors 101, Blazers 113)

Saturday night’s 101-113 loss to Portland felt like a throwback. Given the Warriors’ last few decades, that’s about the worst insult you can dish out. There were stretches of hot shooting and a few impressive defensive plays, but no sense of a cohesive team at either end of the court. Too many individuals trying to do too much; lots of grinding gears tearing up the motor the harder it cranked. When push literally came to shove, the Warriors seemed to fall apart rather than surge ahead. At their most focused, this team can run with anyone. But right now? They’re a mess.

The Warriors’ starters opened the third quarter with a 16-5 run, building a 14-point lead with 7:52 to go. The three made jumpers by Stephen Curry leading up to it would be the high watermark for the evening. The Blazers started to chip away at the lead with outside shooting — noticeably easier against the team with their best perimeter defender, Andre Iguodala, out indefinitely. With the lead down to 8 late in the quarter, Andrew Bogut and Joel Freeland got tangled up, Mo Williams and Draymond Green joined the fray, and a tense game spilled over into open hostility. Last season, these types of skirmishes seemed to fuel the Warriors and propel them to more aggressive basketball. But on Saturday night, it had the opposite effect.

The shoving match took the Warriors’ two best defenders out of the game. Draymond Green was ejected, and Andrew Bogut was sent to the bench about a minute later for a cooling off period and rest. He played much more passively when he checked back in later in the fourth quarter. In the 2:29 seconds following Bogut’s departure, the Warriors shed 7 points of their lead and all of their momentum. The spare-parts lineups that Jackson deployed in the final minutes of the third were unavoidable given injuries, but seemed to exacerbate the Warriors’ problems. The Blazers immediately feasted on the soft Lee/Speights frontline and the inexperienced perimeter defense of Nedovic. When Thompson picked up his 5th foul, Jackson sent Bazemore in as his replacement and the Warriors’s offense completely derailed.

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But while the bench can be blamed for losing most of the lead and the Warriors’ momentum, the worst stretch of the game — the nearly 6:00 run in the fourth when the Blazers buried the Warriors with a 14-0 run — was almost entirely with the starters on the floor. The Warriors’ top players had major problems on both defense and offense.

The Blazers stole a page from the Grizzlies’ offensive playbook and targeted David Lee repeatedly in the post. Aldridge back him down possession after possession and either got a basket or a trip to the line. Jackson opted not to switch Bogut onto him, given Aldridge’s quickness and Bogut’s 5 fouls. With Green in the locker room, the Warriors had no better option to slow down the Blazers’ star. The end result was a monster fourth quarter for Aldridge — 15 points, 14 trips to the line, 9 rebounds (including 4 offensive). The Warriors’ defense has never looked more vulnerable and ineffective this season than it did Saturday night with the Blazers’ gutting its soft underbelly. The rest of the league is sure to notice, putting a target squarely on Lee until the Warriors get enough healthy bodies (O’Neal, eventually Ezeli) to play better post defense. Iguodala’s absence also hurts the Warriors’ ability to defend the post, since it was often Iguodala making the entry pass more difficult and providing swarming help from the top as the post player attempted to back his defender down. Without Iguodala there to help, Lee’s forced to defend one-on-one, and it hasn’t been pretty.

At the other end, the Warriors once again lost all ball movement late in the game. Over the last 10:17 of the game, the Warriors had 1 assisted basket (19 of the previous 33 field goals had been off assists). Instead of swinging the ball to their shooters and opening up the court with spacing, the Warriors stood around and watched each other attempt to drive into to teeth of the Blazers’ defense. It almost seemed like a petulant act — if Aldridge was going to get calls at one end, the Warriors were determined to get reciprocal calls at the other — but the end result was the suppression of everything good in the Warriors’ offensive attack. Curry was 1-5 off mostly jumpers and was careless with the ball. Barnes was 1-3 and Lee was 1-3. Neither got to the line during the Blazers’ 14-0 run to seal the victory. The Warriors’ hottest shooter of the night (and also the one most dependent on ball movement for shots), Klay Thompson, attempted zero shots during his final 4 minute run. It looked a lot like the Warriors playing without a point guard in the prior 2 games — except their point guard was now on the floor.

Injuries are obviously impacting the Warriors’ ability to field functional line-ups. Iguodala, O’Neal and Douglas all would have played important roles in this game, and could have been the stabilizing force the team needed late in the third quarter to push the lead beyond 14 rather than see it dwindle down to 3. The inefficacy of the bench is also a factor in these struggles. Speights was at best a non-factor when he was on the court, and often an active detriment to his team. Bazemore and Nedovic are risks for run-killing mistakes every time they touch the ball. All of these things are problems, but they’re not why the Warriors lost the game. When the starters checked back into the game in the fourth quarter, they weren’t able to turn it on at will. They were overpowered on defense and disorganized on offense. Their carelessness, lack of focus and general lack of intensity doomed them, despite the fact that Portland was on the road, on the end of a back-to-back, with two of its rotation players in the locker room.

There are plenty of potential excuses for this disaster of a game — the injuries, the bench, the refs — but all of them obscure the bigger issue. If the Warriors are going to progress beyond just beating up average or worse teams, they need to play with greater discipline and intelligence. They can’t always count on their own hot shooting run or an opponent’s self-destructive tendencies to save the day. All the dumb touch fouls, unforced turnovers, ill-advised isolations, missed box outs and lost men on defense add up eventually. They result in defenders like Bogut afraid to fully engage because of foul trouble, or crucial scorers like Thompson frozen out of the late game offense because players keep calling their own numbers. The worst thing the Warriors could do at this point in the season is excuse this loss based on some factor beyond their control. This was a winnable game that they lost because of their own actions. If they dodge that rough truth, they’re going to be doomed to repeat it. What looked like a potential contender a week ago could be a sub.500 team by the end of next week.

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Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is so . . . yesteryear. I’d thot. But it seems like mid-Q3, now, we’re turning into rotting pumpkins.

Was Jax even paying attention after the fray? I know Lee had checked out early — second game in a row. How did Aldridge just beat him down so badly in Q4? (Now there’s your prototype four — long, strong, and there at the end.)

Unless Jax grabs this thing by the neck, I see a bad moon rising for a while. Not an apocalyptic vision,; but a very disappointing one nonetheless.

bros tired and JSL, I respect your views, but let’s take a breath and remember. Fact once again: The Ws are 8-2 with a 10PPG differential when both Curry and AI play, they are 0-4 without one of them.

Yes, they are truly shallow right now, with only 6 credible players until AI gets back, and an injury to another of the credible six will put them in a deep deep hole.

Last night was a case in point. Even without AI, the Ws were +10 and in control when Green was thrown out. At that point they had no choice but to put in some not-ready-for-prime-time players. Klay picked up his 5th very early, and that took the best perimeter defender off the floor (not to mention our best scorer last night. He was torching the blazers and handcuffing Lillard). It was fairly inevitable what would happen at that point.

Eric Eiserloh

Lee is a very good player, but how did he stack up against Griffin, Love, Ibaka, Randolph, or Aldridge in the WC.
I would say that he only got the better of Love, so far.
Now, he goes up against Unibrow, and then Dirk

coltraning

I think that might be some folks mixing it up with the nickname for David Aldridge, the sportswriter…Lamarcus’ nickname is LA

El Topo

Nedovic was OK…not great, not awful. He’s a young Euro getting acclimated to the USA and the NBA. A 22 yo rookie with some skills and athleticism.

Sure, he needs to work on his game, develop some confidence, and settle down. Patience.

Chris L

Yes, Nedovic really looked like a legitimate PG to me, too. He ran the team quite well first half—and his second half mistakes weren’t atypical for any rookie PG. I thought he showed real promise—even for this season.

jsl165

I know we disagree about this, Col, but what I’ve been seeing repeatedly — regardless of who’s on/off the floor — is pisspoor end-game play. This, to me, is the biggest difference between winners and losers.

And a coach who either doesn’t get it or can’t imagine what to do about it.

Disheartening.

coltraning

So far, I do not think he has played nearly as well as he did last year, Eric…

It may be that he has yet to figure out the spacing with Bogut on the floor, or maybe he does not have the confidence in his midrange he did last year…

His bonehead forced passes are starting to be an irritant as well.

Not sure exactly, but he also got undressed on defense last night. (thought he played a lot better against Zeebo).

Last year, imho, he was the Ws best player until Curry exploded post-all-star break. This year? Probably the 5th or 6th best. And that is not all because the Ws upgraded their starters with AI and a healthy Bogut.

Look, you are in a fortunate position if your 5th or 6th best player is D Lee, but you have to hope that the players ahead of him stay healthy.

I might consider switching him and Barnes in the starting line-up.

coltraning

absolutely. 3 games ago the Ws were 8-3 (8-2 with both Curry and AI playing) and the board was near-orgasmic. The team is still one of the 4-5 best in the league when healthy…

Chris L

Tired,

I agree with Zume and jsl below.

Your post is wonderfully expressive and right on-key in tone.

jsl165

Are you counting Lee last night? Or the night before?

If so, why?

BTW, other teams are missing guys (I.e. Lakers), and beating us.
Why do we pale by comparison?

coltraning

What you’ve seen, when, bro? When they are 8-2 with every one healthy, and blowing folks out by 15 plus a game?

Or the team with no bench that cannot withstand an injury to one of their top six?

I maintain, broken record that I am, our heroes are a 55 win team over the course of a season, assuming good health (my constant caveat). That said, the team is so NOT DEEP that a long-term injury to any of Curry, AI, Bogut or Thompson could mean missing the playoffs. (esp Curry or AI).

Jackson can only coach who he has, and he has very deficient talent when you get past the top 6…

Chris L

Given injuries, Scotch, certainly the W’s have dipped.

Memphis clubbed them. And now on back-to-back nights, both the Lakers and Blazers played more like the W’s than the W’s did.

jsl165

I’m guessing that’s a ‘spell check’ thing.

Eric Eiserloh

Don’t take this the wrong way, col. You’re one of my favorite posters even though we have disagreed of late.

The W’s could have won each of the last 3 games, and should have won two fo them (that’s what elite teams do in the face of adversity).

That being said, this is a rough time for them, and the important thing is to learn from it and use this experience to grow and get better not just think everything is fine and that we are 4-0 with Curry and AI in there together.

First of all, that won’t be the case for a while since AI will be out for an undetermined time (does that excuse them if they lose every game until he returns?)

Sorry, but this team has work to do, and the bench needs an upgrade if they are going to contend by playoff time

jsl165

Agree. But I still think the very best I’ve ever Sen him play was first half against Memphis.

The next 10 quarters, tho, have been about the worst.

And Q4 last night was excruciating.

Chris L

“We should have been able to put together a better finish to this game (win or lose), despite the injuries, imo.”

Very succinctly and accurately said, SJ Jim.

And like you also say, injuries and disqualifications beset all teams.

The night before, a less-talented Lakers team—missing Kobe and Nash—outplayed the W’s.

Last night Mathews and Williams get tossed, too.

jsl165

In a number of those wins we were just holding on at the end.

Now, that can be good — showing we can win games we’ve allowed to get too close.

But it’s real bad when it causes you to think you’ll keep winning with lesser play and players.

As the last three-four games have shown.

coltraning

Gosh, it’s a perilous thing to go against the board consensus here. (And apparently I’ve a little doppelganger who is invested in voting down each comment of mine. How do you find out who is casting negative votes? Just curious.) But despite my non-consensual view, these are the facts:

1) Ws with all hands on board: 8-2 with a +10 PPG differential.

2) Ws with either Curry or AI out, 0-4 with a negative PPG Differential of some significance.

3) Ws have no bench and 1/2 of what bench Ws have is injured. So the loss of any of the 6 remaining players who are capable, due to ejection or foul trouble or fatigue is disastrous.

4) Oh, this one is sure to get blood boiling. Mark Jackson has forgotten more about Bball than most of us will ever know, and I think his post-game shtick is just that. He is not going to give out any more info than does Harbaugh in his pressers, but to assume that he does not see the game and understand it at a very high level, does not know what he is doing, well I just don’t agree with that…

5) I’ve dubbed this the bipolar board at times, and others (even those indignantly disagreeing with me today, have adopted that term at times). We read in far too much import and significance to these individual games, and that was my observation last year. We know that this team, fully healthy, is one of the best. We also know that an injury/ejection/fouling out of any key player changes that, and right now 4 of our 9 best players are out. To draw any conclusions beyond that you need a sample size of more than a few games…again, what can we conclude from the first 14 games? The Ws are 8-2 with all hands on deck and 0-4 when either Curry or AI is out. So yes, reinforcements are desperately needed…

I await your cards and letters…

coltraning

Thanks, Earl. Apparently, by your down votes, you are expressing a politically incorrect view today. I could not agree more with your post…

coltraning

and patience with the whole team during this rough stretch, no?

coltraning

what are you doing posting a positive comment, Petey. Don’t you realize this is teeth-gnashing, garment-rending time?

knick

At least we talk about issues relevant to the team not spam the blog with tweets and unnecessary stuff.

coltraning

My concern, and I have expressed this before, is his finding a balance between edgy and Matt Barnes…I am not sure he has found it yet…

coltraning

right, in those games we “held” on, we were up by 20-25 and the disastrous bench blew 10 points in 3 minutes. You will get zero argument from me that we have no bench…

Chris L

I’m glad we can disagree on this, Col.

But to some extent, we’re talking at cross-purposes.

As I see it, you’re more using a generic reason/excuse than situationally analyzing the collapse in what was a winnable home-game last night.

For instance, your two examples above—Green getting thrown out and Klay’s fouls—weren’t cruel acts of injustice from an unkind universe.

They were player-caused failings that directly contributed to the collapse. And each member of your six man team made his own contribution as well in those final 15 minutes.

FeatherRiverDan

Col
You have your opinion and I have mine which we both have our right to say….
I’m not an expert like so many on here think they are but time has a way of telling so is right or wrong….
Also in my guess u mations I never said or will ever change cause of injuries like some people flip flop to try to get it right….

coltraning

I’ve said my view about 8 times on here. yes, it makes a HUGE difference whether or not AI or Curry is healthy. OKC without either of Durant or Westbrook is a .500 team. Miami without Lebron is a 7th seed even in the woeful East. The Knicks without Chandler are currently 3-9. Clippers minus Paul are a >500 team at best. Even a deep team like the Pacers or Spurs, are far diminished without Parker or George. It applies in other sports as well, but not to this extent. The Broncos minus Peyton Manning or Patriots minus Tom Brady are not terribly good.

But in Hoops? One man is HUGE. I’ll say it now. If Curry or AI is out for the season, the Ws do not make the playoffs. If one is out for a significant stretch, they are maybe a fringe 8th seed. Assuming good health, they are a top 5 team in the league. It ain’t rocket science, no matter how many advanced metrics we want to bring or how many times we want to blame the coach or David Lee or Andrew Bogut or lack of “heart” or any other bromide…

The team with the best (healthy) players wins 99% of the time over the long haul

knick

Carb, is there a rule that exempts Bogut from contributing on offense? From your vantage point, did you see Bogut attempt a single shot when the Warriors badly needed an offense. And whats with those moving screens. All the smart players have adjusted nicely to the new rule except him. Why? Won’t it be nice to suggest a single move Bogut can execute to help our offense.

knick

Dunno why you guys insist on acting blind and oblivious when it comes to Bogut. Don’t tell me you didn’t see him swing as at the guys neck. Well the league did. We shall hear of it tomorrow.

Chris L

Yes, Jackson’s left Lee naked for too long against both Randolph and Aldridge—even when it was apparent that both guys (neither a great passer) had already really gotten it rolling.

Bogut’s got to knock off getting those early tick-tack fouls. The difference between being able to apply Bogut defensively down the stretch of a game to a lethal low post scorer (or not) is as crucial in its own way as Curry’s offensive availability.
Fitzgerald was surprisingly adamant on this point himself.

Camelot

hoop and dub content stirs more commentary, it’s all right to be narrow minded.

FeatherRiverDan

The warriors are 8-6 and teams have injuries so you can’t pick and choose which games count as they all do…
And yes a whole lot of help is needed at all levels if u know what I mean….

Chris L

First half last night, Nedovic showed real promise of much earlier development than that.

Chris L

Patience with their best, most intelligent, most cohesive effort—win or lose.

Correction of sloppiness, lack-of-focus, premature self-satisfaction.

knick

LOL…look at you complaining about down votes. You’re probably receiving them because you’re stating the obvious. Very soon you’d be called s troll and all the nice names in the book. Oh since you are wondering, I’ll proceed to down vote your comment to remove some of your doubts.

But it sounds a little demeaning to bundle the rest of us into some monolithic “board consensus.”

knick

And weren’t you the same southern conservative white boy who stated that bogut was very talented?

PeteyBrian

Hehe! Trust me Coltraning – I will viciously turn on the W’s/Owners/Management/Coaching/Players throwing them all under the bus and become an “excuses basketball fan” when our beloved W’s have everyone healthy, get closer to the playoffs, then get blown out at home due to a lack of effort, porous defense, selfish play, questionable shots, and lazy coaching!

As for now? Piece of cake. No grave concerns. Lol!

embamba

I sort of thought so, too, very much to my surprise.

Chris L

I’ve been barking about the W’s needing a backup pure PG to push tempo and direct the halfcourt offense when Curry’s out (much as I like Douglas’ tenor and defense).

But first half, like you, I was very much surprised by Nedovic—and found myself even wondering: could Nedovic turn out to be, sooner than later, the very guy I’ve been thinking the W’s need to add?

coltraning

very hyper-meta-textual when it comes to my word choice, Chris L! Yes, there is a consensus on here on most matters, Chris L. On others we all can nearly come to verbal blows.You can characterize that view as demeaning, it is just a statement of fact, no offense or diminishment intended…

coltraning

Nah, I just wanted to out you, Knick, and now I have. I wear your disapproval as a badge of honor, sir! BTW, I would note that Chandler is the MVP on your team (As he was on the 2011 Mavs) so it is clear how devastating one injury can be to any team…

James Online

got the feeling he was victimized by the “rookie foul phenomenon.” Takes time to be respected by the refs. He looked confident and comfortable with the ball, even directing players into position for the sets. Bottom line: needs more playing time to develop.

coltraning

Through 2012, the Heat were 2-5 when Lebron did not play, and of course, while all games count, losing your key player changes everything. Just ask OKC without Westbrook or the Lakers without Kobe…

embamba

I pretty much agree with what you’re writing today, coltraning. The other team is made up of NBA players, too, healthy ones at that. They even have a bench. Under adversity, human beings sometimes get away from their best. I would like to have seen the Warriors do a better job of keeping it together after the tete a tete, even if they had still lost. But very short handed, with Curry carrying himself like a guy who shouldn’t have been playing at all and Klay and Bogut in foul trouble, they didn’t. Portland, minus two players and on the road, did. They’re a good team, too. 12-2 worth at the moment.

What Jackson says post-game is fun to listen to, but it’s not meant as a straightforward, no holds barred, from the gut impression of what he thinks. He’s reinforcing certain messages to his team and to the public. That’s his job and responsibility as he and the organization see it. But he knows that with injuries, no bench and major foul trouble, that the odds for his team get very unfavorable in a hurry. If they take his message to heart, the improbably favorable can happen. But the fact that it didn’t is not a major surprise, given the circumstances.