Forecasting of an oil spill trajectory

IMPROVING OIL SPILL/TRAJECTORY FORECAST IN CASE OF A MARITIME ACCIDENT

Monitoring and forecasting material transport in areas of high pollution risk is of major importance for controlling and mitigating damages caused by a maritime accident. Modeling systems (using atmospheric and oceanic predictions to provide the background for pollutants dispersion forecasts) are becoming a powerful tool in the hands of local authorities and public administrations involved in environmental and maritime safety issues.

Five such systems have been implemented and validated in 5test sites around the Mediterranean Sea (Balearic Islands, Northwestern Mediterranean, Gulf of Napoli, Gulf of Trieste and North Aegean). At each test site, forecasting simulations have been performed, at the same time when HF radar and drifter track observations were available, to test the accuracy of the models and identify the source and type of errors.

STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE EXISTING FORECASTING SYSTEMS

During TOSCA, techniques aiming at improving existing forecasting systems through radars and drifters observations have been developed. One of the main results of this strategy is the LAVA software, described in the TOSCA tools section.