Univ. of Miami to Lead Team on Grant for Drought, Flood Prediction

NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE among the funders of this critical collaboration to help mitigate effects of extreme climate on S. Florida

MIAMI — Each year, the National Hurricane
Center estimates that tropical storm-related flood damage costs
billions of dollars. In 2011, it was estimated at $8.4 billion.
In 2005, one of the most active Atlantic Hurricane seasons in
history, which generated Hurricane Katrina, that number topped
$51 billion. So, to have a tool that can help forecast the
potential for flooding rise means better preparation, and
potentially, less damage and costs.

A multi-model seasonal climate prediction system has shown it
can improve NOAA’s operational forecasts when it comes to
predicting the possibility of severe floods or droughts,
especially in South Florida. Based on phase 1 of this
multi-institution research project, NOAA, NASA, the National
Science Foundation (NSF), and the Department of Energy awarded
a two-year grant of $1.9M to a team led by University of Miami
(UM) Professor and Rosenstiel School of Marine &
Atmospheric Science Associate Dean of Research Ben
Kirtman. He will spearhead the next phase of the effort,
which includes nine other principal investigators from
government laboratories, universities and non-profit
organizations. This new effort will expand on the group’s
work, establishing a comprehensive multi-model prediction
available in real-time to all sectors of society.

“We started phase 1 of the project in February 2011,
integrating climate data from each of our partner entities, and
became ‘real-time’ in August 2011,” Kirtman
said. “Preliminary results show that the new multi-model
ensemble really improves the predictions over the southeastern
United States, particularly Florida.”

The data will be factored into NOAA’s operational
forecasts, which will have specific significance for the
seasonal outlook for tropical storms and hurricanes. Already,
results from the project are being shared with the South
Florida Water Management Department with the intent of
improving its decision systems for fresh water management on
seasonal time scales.

“Our goal is to be able to quantify the predictability of
seasonal variations in rainfall and surface temperature over
the globe,” Kirtman said. “And from the work
we’ve done thus far, we’re optimistic and excited
about the prospects of meeting that goal.”

About the University of Miami’s
Rosenstiel SchoolThe University of Miami is the largest private research
institution in the southeastern United States. The
University’s mission is to provide quality education,
attract and retain outstanding students, support the faculty
and their research, and build an endowment for University
initiatives. Founded in the 1940’s, the Rosenstiel School
of Marine & Atmospheric Science has grown into one of the
world’s premier marine and atmospheric research
institutions. Offering dynamic interdisciplinary academics, the
Rosenstiel School is dedicated to helping communities to better
understand the planet, participating in the establishment of
environmental policies, and aiding in the improvement of
society and quality of life. For more information, please
visitwww.rsmas.miami.edu.