An
estimated 1.8 million people are being told
to evacuate Gulf Coast communities as
Hurricane Rita threatens a large swathe of
Texas and Louisiana. Many Texan evacuees
were caught in traffic jams and the state
opened southbound carriageways to
northbournd traffic. Rita remains extremely
dangerous despite being downgraded to a
Category 4 storm. It is forecast to make
landfall Saturday between Galveston, Texas,
and the Texas-Louisiana border.

Hurricane
Rita is
the 17th named storm, ninth hurricane,
fifth major hurricane, and was the second
Category 5 hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic
hurricane season. This hurricane (currently
Category 4) is on record as being the strongest
measured hurricane to ever have entered the Gulf
of Mexico. The storm has already struck Florida
and Cuba, and currently threatens Texas and
Louisiana. The system reached Category 5
strength on the afternoon of September 21, 2005,
and as of 5 p.m. CDT is expected to make
landfall with estimated winds of 125 knots (144
mph (232 km/h)) sometime on September 24, to the
east of Galveston. Evacuation orders have been
issued for parts of the Texas coast, and
storm-ravaged New Orleans.

As
more than 1 million people scurried to get out
of the way of Hurricane Rita, the Category 5
hurricane grew more turbulent, becoming the
third most intense storm in history, the
National Hurricane Center said Wednesday night.

Officials
said the barometric pressure near the eye of the
storm was 897 millibars, a lower reading than
Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into the Gulf
Coast August 29. Only Hurricane Gilbert in
1988 (888 mb), which struck Jamaica and the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the Labor Day hurricane
of 1935 (892 mb), which hit the Florida Keys,
had lower pressures. Max Mayfield,
director of the hurricane center, said Rita
could be even more damaging than Katrina. "This
is a very, very dangerous hurricane," he
said.

A
hurricane watch was issued from Port Mansfield,
Texas about 80 miles from Mexico to Cameron,
Louisiana. As
of 11 p.m. ET, Rita packed maximum sustained
winds of 175 mph (280 kph), according to the
National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The
storm's center was about 570 miles (915
kilometers) east-southeast of Galveston, Texas,
and the storm was moving west at 9 mph (15 kph),
according to a center advisory.

The
warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico were fueling
the storm, which is about 370 miles wide.

In
Galveston, Texas, several thousand of the city's
58,000 residents were bused to inland shelters.

"I'm
prepared to be gone two weeks or more, and I
have medication and everything my kids need to
prepare myself for that," said Julia
Marshall, who moved to Galveston from New
Orleans with her five children earlier this
year.

Mayor
Lyda Ann Thomas applauded the evacuees.
"We're a sandbar, and storm-ridden fairly
often," she said. "This is the first
time people have responded the way they
have."

One
man who runs a retirement home near the beach
told The Associated Press not everyone was
leaving willingly. "They either go
with a family member or they go with us, but
this building is not safe sitting on the seawall
with a major hurricane coming," David
Hastings, executive director of the Edgewater
Retirement Community, told AP.

"I
have had several say, 'I don't want to go,' and
I said, 'I'm sorry, you're going.' "

Galveston,
smashed in 1900 by the deadliest hurricane in
U.S. history, is in the center of the storm's
projected path.

The
latest extended forecast from the National
Hurricane Center predicted Rita would likely
make landfall Saturday in Texas, but anywhere
from southwest Louisiana to northeast Mexico.

Around
Houston, the nation's fourth most-populous city,
highways were clogged with traffic as residents
rushed to leave.

Houston
Mayor Bill White urged the residents in areas at
risk for storm surge and those living in mobile
homes to evacuate. White also asked
residents to help move citizens who cannot
evacuate by themselves. President Bush
declared states of emergency in Texas and
Louisiana, allowing the Federal Emergency
Management Agency to coordinate relief
efforts.

Officials
at the South Texas Project nuclear plant in Bay
City, Texas, were preparing to shut the facility
down before Rita arrives, a spokesman
said. The plant, which powers 1 million
customers, is built on elevated ground 12 miles
inland from the Texas coast to withstand storm
surges from Category 5 hurricanes.

What
about storms and global warming Mr President?

Evacuating
a second storm

Texas
welcomed thousands of evacuees after Hurricane
Katrina hit, and many are now having to flee
again. Gwendolyn Garley and her family
were taken to Galveston after being rescued from
the roof of their home in New Orleans' 9th Ward.
The family was planning to settle in Galveston
permanently, she said. "I feel
lifeless, I'm just going through the
motions,".

Later
she said her cousin contacted her after seeing
the interview and invited the family to join her
in Atlanta, Georgia. Ernie Allen,
president of the National Center for Missing and
Exploited Children, said one of the lessons
learned from Katrina was that families need to
take some pictures with them.

He
also advised parents to make "a little
simple ID for your child" that they can
keep with them in case they become
separated. Authorities in Louisiana also
worked to get thousands of residents moved from
areas near the coast. Rita brushed South
Florida and the Florida Keys on Tuesday,
pounding the area with heavy rain and strong
winds from its outer squall bands.

The
storm caused storm-surge flooding in some areas
and spawned at least two tornadoes, forecasters
said.

Hurricane Rita in the Gulf
of Mexico on September
22, 2005
at 2115 UTC.

Duration

Sept.
17 - present, 2005

Highest
winds

175
mph
(280 km/h)
sustained

Damages

Not
yet available

Fatalities

None
reported

Areas
affected

Bahamas,
Florida, Cuba
(to date)

Part
of the 2005
Atlantic hurricane season

Rita
is now estimated by NOAA to be past its peak,
but became the third most intense hurricane ever
recorded in the Atlantic basin, having achieved
a minimum central pressure of 897 millibar
(26.49 inches of mercury). Under current
forecasts, it will be one of the most intense
hurricanes ever to strike land in the United
States. Forecasters from the National Hurricane
Center are issuing warnings about the
unpredictability of large storms such as Rita,
since there is a far smaller information base to
work from. It is still a major hurricane,
capable of causing localized catastrophic damage
from straight line winds, flooding, storm surge,
vortexes and tornado activity. Meterological
authorities in the US urge individuals to take
all appropriate precautions, including observing
evacuation orders if in effect. NOAA has warned
that conditions may cause a return to higher
winds and storm surge, with one indicator being
that the central pressure has remained unchanged
while the wind speeds have dropped somewhat
disbelievingly.

Because
the Gulf of Mexico is a major center for crude
oil production and refineries, as well as home
to some of the busiest ports in the world, Rita
has the potential to do damage beyond the
localized wind and wave surge. The spot market
for crude oil and gasoline futures both spiked
when it became clear that Rita's path would take
it towards the Gulf and towards Texas. Gasoline
prices, already elevated by strong demand and a
previous hurricane in the Gulf, are predicted to
increase again by several major energy analysts
on Wall Street. There are increasing concerns
that this may further weaken GDP growth in the
US and around the world in late 2005.

Only
three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the United
States: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935,
Hurricane Camille in 1969, and, most recently,
Hurricane Andrew in 1992. As of 5 pm CDT
September 22, the National Hurricane Center
estimates that upon making landfall Rita's winds
will have decreased to 144 mph (232 km/h) from
their steady-peak of 175 mph (280 km/h). If
accurate, this would place Hurricane Rita as a
Category 4 storm when it strikes land.

Storm
history

Rita's
name, alone, indicates the activity of the 2005
hurricane season; it is only the second time an
"R" name has been used since naming of
storms began in 1950. Several systems in 1969
went unnamed, so the "R" name was
never reached, and the seventeenth system
received the first "M" name used to
that time. The only prior seventeenth tropical
systems since 1950 were Hurricane Martha in 1969
and Hurricane Roxanne in 1995.

The
storm formed at the tail end of an old frontal
boundary, where convection and low level
circulation around an upper level low steadily
developed for over two days. A surface low
formed near it, and the season's eighteenth
tropical depression formed soon thereafter east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands. It became the
seventeenth tropical storm of the season on
September 18, less than a day after forming. A
mandatory evacuation had been ordered for the
entire Florida Keys. Rita is expected to
threaten Texas and Louisiana next, likely as a
major hurricane. Key West mayor Jim Weekley said
in an interview, "We're looking right now
at a Category 2 or 3."

Hurricane
Rita in the Gulf
of Mexico on September
21 2005

Rita
was slow to become a hurricane; discussions
early on September 20 showed that wind
translations to surface level were indeed at 75
mph (120 km/h), however, the lack of a complete
eyewall meant that the National Hurricane Center
kept Rita as a tropical storm with 70 mph (110
km/h) winds overnight. Aerial reconnaissance
data released at 9:45 am EDT that morning showed
that Rita had closed the eyewall and winds
clearly reached hurricane strength. Four hours
later, another special update stated that Rita
had reached Category 2 strength with 100 mph
(160 km/h) maximum sustained winds.

The
warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, which is
currently 1 °F (0.5 °C) above average, is
favorable for hurricane development. As
Hurricane Rita entered the Gulf of Mexico, it
had rapidly increased in intensity. The National
Hurricane Center's official advisories, issued
every three hours, showed strengthening at every
single advisory from 5 p.m. EDT on September
20th to 11 a.m. EDT on September 21st. At that
advisory, Rita's maximum sustained winds had
increased to 140 mph. Strengthening continued;
an update issued at 2:15 pm EDT (1815 UTC) said
that Rita's maximum winds had increased to 150
mph (240 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 920
mbar. Less than two hours later, at 3:55 pm EDT
(19:55 UTC), another update was issued, saying
Rita had strengthened into a Category 5 storm
with maximum windspeeds of 165 mph (265 km/h).
At 6:50 pm CDT, a reconaissance aircraft
recorded a pressure reading of 26.547 inches
(899 mbar), but it was thought to actually be
lower since the reading was not from the center.

Lt.
Col. Warren Madden, a Hurricane Hunter and
meteorologist for The Weather Channel, recorded
a peak wind gust of 235 mph while in the eye of
the storm. "[Rita] is the most powerful
storm that I've ever been in," he
commented.

Current
status

Forecast track for
Rita provided by
the National
Hurricane Center

As
of 7 pm CDT September 22 (0000 UTC, September
23), the center of Hurricane Rita was located
about 350 miles (565 km) east-southeast of
Galveston, Texas and about 290 miles (465 km)
southeast of Cameron, Louisiana. As of 5pm CDT,
Rita is currently a Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with maximum
sustained winds of 145mph (230 km/h or 125
knots) and a minimum central pressure of around
913 mbar (which is typical of Category 5
pressure), and is moving west-northwest at 10
mph (17 km/h).

Rita
is forecast to be at least Category 3 intensity
before final landfall (more likely Category 4),
and is currently expected to hit the northern
Texas coastline near Galveston, but the
probabilities have been drifting to the east.
The strength of Rita has prompted New Orleans
mayor Ray Nagin to suspend re-entry to the city,
and order a re-evacuation. While the eye of the
hurricane is not expected to hit the city, the
hurricane's proximity will likely result in
dangerous rainfall levels (for the weakened
levees) and strong winds. Should Rita make
landfall in Texas as expected, it could rival
Hurricane Carla and the Indianola Hurricane of
1886 as the most intense storm ever to strike
Texas. Many comparisons are being made between
Rita and Carla due to the similarity of their
strengths and because Rita was at first expected
to come ashore very near where Carla came ashore
in 1961.

Rita
has been downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane,
which is still dangerous. It is still possible
that Rita could regain Category 5 intensity as
it goes over some warm vortexes in the Gulf,
although it appears unlikely such will be
maintained up to landfall. Some models are
showing that a high pressure system might cause
Rita to stall over Texas and dump as much as 25
inches of rain there, but there is still a great
deal of uncertainty over whether this will
happen or not.

Warnings
and watches

Hurricane
warning is in effect for:

The
Gulf of Mexico coast from Port O'Connor,
Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Tropical
storm warnings are in effect for:

South
of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield,
Texas.

Southeastern
coast of Lousiana east of Morgan City to
the mouth of the Mississippi River.

North
of the mouth of the Mississippi River to
the mouth of the Pearl River, including
metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain.

Tropical
storm watches are in effect for:

East
of the Mississippi River to the mouth of
the Pearl River, including metropolitan
New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

South
of Port Mansfield to Brownsville, Texas.

Northeastern
coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
north to the Rio Grande.

Impact

Florida
and Cuba

Hurricane
Rita flooding in the Florida Keys

So
far, few reports have come in. Over 340,000
people were under voluntary or mandatory
evacuation orders in Florida and Cuba. Flooding
has been reported along the Florida Keys as a
result of the storm surge. The Overseas Highway
(US 1) connecting the islands is impassable in
some sections as a result of the flooding. As of
8:00 pm EDT, about 25,000 customers were without
electricity
in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, plus another
2,100 in the Keys.

A
state of emergency has been declared by Florida
Governor Jeb Bush and a federal emergency by
President George W. Bush in four counties:
Broward, Collier, Miami-Dade and Monroe. Over
2,000 National Guard troops and dozens of law
enforcement officers have been brought in and
are on standby.

No
fatalities have been reported in either Florida
or Cuba.

Preparations
and risk

Louisiana

Rita's
approach changed New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin's
plans to begin reopening the city on Monday,
September 19. The plan had already come under
heavy criticism from federal officials, and
Nagin reversed his decision while Rita was still
a tropical storm near the Florida Keys.

Instead,
a re-evacuation of the city was initiated on
Wednesday, September 21. Even though Rita's
forecast track keeps the center of circulation
well to the south and west of New Orleans, even
a glancing strike could be dangerous as the Army
Corps of Engineers estimates that as little as
five inches (130 mm) of rain (a small amount for
a typical tropical system) could overwhelm the
fragile levee system as repairs continue.

In
addition, residents of Cameron Parish, and
residents of Calcasieu Parish south of
Interstate 10 were told to evacuate.

Texas

After
the devastating aftermath of Hurricane
Katrina, government officials of Galveston,
Texas, which was decimated by the Galveston
Hurricane of 1900, have issued a mandatory
evacuation of Galveston County, effective
Wednesday, well in advance of the storm's
possible landfall later this week. Texas
Governor Rick Perry recalled all emergency
personnel, including almost 1,200 Texas National
Guard from Katrina recovery efforts, in
anticipation of Hurricane Rita's arrival.

In
the wake of Katrina, Galveston local officials
have ordered the evacuations in a staggered
sequence setting different zones in the area
which are due to leave at different times in the
next 24 hours. Officials of the county hope that
the designation of zones A, B, and C are able to
prevent bottlenecks leaving the area such as
those seen out of New Orleans prior to Katrina
and Hurricane Dennis this year. Also, different
zones will be forced to go to certain cities in
Texas and will not be allowed to exit their
designated routes except for food and gas -
another feature of the evacuation plan which
hopes to keep traffic and flow orderly
throughout this timeframe. These cities include
College Station, Huntsville, and Lufkin, Texas.

Houston
after Tropical
Storm Allison June
2001

Hurricane
Rita has caused some worry as current forecasts
predict a close landfall as a major storm by
Houston, Texas. Houston has four major bayous
passing through the city: Buffalo Bayou, which
runs into downtown; Brays Bayou, which runs
along the Texas Medical Center (check the Brays
Bayou flood alert webcam and conditions); White
Oak Bayou, which runs through the Heights and
near the northwest area; and Sims Bayou, which
runs through the south of Houston and downtown
Houston, merging into the Houston Ship Channel.
The ship channel goes past Galveston and into
the Gulf of Mexico.

Most
of Houston is flat, making flooding an
increasing problem for its residents. The city
stands about 50 feet (15 m) above sea level; the
Houston Heights area has the highest elevation
in the city. In 2001 significant portions of the
city were flooded by a comparatively weak
Tropical Storm Allison that stalled over the
city, dropping over 30 inches (750 mm) of rain
on some parts of the city.

As
part of the evacuation, Johnson
Space Center in Houston handed off control
of the International Space Station to their
Russian counterparts.

Another
complication exists with the large number of
Hurricane Katrina evacuees in Houston; plans are
underway to move them inland to other facilities
throughout the United States. Some evacuees have
already been moved to Arkansas (which already
has an estimated 50,000 Katrina evacuees and may
pick up thousands of Rita evacuees on its own).

Concerns
have been raised over the state of the oil
industry in response to Rita. The storm
threatens a large amount of oil infrastructure
that was left undamaged by Katrina.
The Texas gulf coast is home to 23% of the
United States' refining capacity, and numerous
offshore production platforms are potentially in
Rita's path. While no potential storm path would
threaten all of the capacity at once, a direct
strike on Houston could disable up to 8% of the
nation's refining capacity. Valero Energy Corp,
the nation's largest refiner, stated on
September 21 that Rita could cause gasoline
prices to rise well above $3 per gallon.

On
September 22, Governor Rick Perry and the Texas
Department of Transportation implemented a
contraflow lane reversal on Interstate 45 north
towards Dallas, on Interstate 10 west towards
San Antonio and U.S. Highway 290 northwest to
Bryan/College Station.

Inland
flooding potential

Heavy
rain and powerful winds from Rita are expected
to spread well inland due to its size and
intensity, with hurricane-force winds expected
at least 150 miles (240 km) inland, which would
be to approximately the US 84 corridor based on
a landfall east of Galveston. The precise
distance depends on the strength and speed at
landfall. Tropical storm force winds are
expected far beyond there, possibly as far north
as the Red River Valley.

One
especially problematic scenario exists; some
models forecast that Rita will stall over
eastern Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana or
eastern Oklahoma. Such a scenario could lead to
potentially catastrophic inland flooding,
possibly as much as 20 to 30 inches (500 to 750
mm) of rain over 2-3 days. Such would be similar
to the flood disaster of Tropical Storm Allison
in 2001.

If
a ridge of high pressure blocking the route
north breaks down, Rita is expected to continue
through the central United States, possibly to
dissipation or crossing the eastern states back
into the Atlantic Ocean. Significant flooding is
still possible in that scenario due to heavy
rain.

Rita
has broken multiple records, being the earliest
17th named storm, the third most intense storm,
and quickest drop of pressure in 1 hour.
Hurricane Rita recently became the 3rd most
intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic
basin and the most intense hurricane on record
in the Gulf of Mexico, the latter a record set
by Hurricane Katrina three weeks earlier.

Economic
Effects

The
heavy concentration of oil infrastructure in the
Gulf of Mexico makes hurricanes of Rita's
intensity very problematic. Currently there is
very little spare crude oil capacity, and the
Gulf of Mexico produces some 2 million barrels a
day total, as well has having some 30% of the
total refining capacity of the United States,
which is the world's largest consumer of
gasoline and crude oil. Rita's path takes it
through a dense area of offshore pipelines and
oil platforms, and on land to an area with large
refineries. With over half of Gulf production
still shut down in the wake of Katrina, some
economists have stated that a worst case
scenario is for gasoline prices to briefly touch
$5/gallon, which would be easily the highest
real price for gasoline paid in the United
States during the internal combustion era. With
some 200K jobless claims attributed to Katrina,
Rita could be a further drag on a weakened US
economy.

The
most pessimistic projections have GDP growth cut
by 1% on an annualized basis in the United
States in the second half of 2005, with as many
as 500K people thrown out of work. This would
lead to a sharp uptick in the Unemployment Rate.
Some economists argue that the rebuilding effort
would bouy the economy in 2006, while others
argue that the energy spike could decrease
consumer confidence by enough to send the
economy into a full fledge recession when
combined with the Federal Reserve's increases in
interest rates.

Gasoline
Falls as Hurricane Rita Weakens, Shifts
Eastwards

Sept.
23 (Bloomberg) -- Gasoline fell in New York
after Hurricane Rita weakened on its path toward
Texas and shifted track away from the heart of
the refining industry. Crude oil futures were
little changed.

Rita's
winds dropped to 145 mph from as high as 175 mph
earlier, the National Hurricane Center said. The
storm may make landfall between the northern
coast of Texas and the west coast of Louisiana.
Gasoline rose 4.2 percent yesterday as about 20
percent of U.S. refining capacity was shut in
Texas.

The
track has been moving to the east, away from the
really big refineries in the Houston area,''
said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc.
in Houston. ``The storm is still serious.''

Gasoline
for October delivery fell as much as 3.94 cents,
or 1.8 percent, to $2.10 a gallon in after-hours
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange at 8:32 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday,
the contract rose 8.63 cents to $2.1394, the
highest close since Sept. 2.

Prices
touched $2.92 a gallon on Aug. 31, the highest
since trading began in 1984. Futures are 59
percent higher than a year ago. Gasoline
yesterday had the biggest move of any commodity.

At
least 14 refineries with a combined capacity of
more than 3.3 million barrels a day were closed
or had processing cut in Corpus Christi, Port
Arthur and in or near Houston, as Texas braced
for Rita, one of the strongest storms on record.
About 5 percent of U.S. capacity was already
closed because of Hurricane Katrina, which hit
Louisiana and Mississippi Aug. 29 and sent U.S.
gasoline pump prices above $3 a gallon for the
first time.

Louisiana

The
path of the hurricane has moved eastward, away
from Houston and toward Port Arthur, which is
near the Louisiana border. It
looks now as if Rita is not going to go through
the main refinery region,'' said David Thurtell,
a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of
Australia in Sydney. ``Because all these plants
have closed for precautionary reasons there have
been problems with gasoline supply, which drove
prices higher yesterday. Still, it looks as if
there's not going to be so much damage to the
bigger refining sites.''

Exxon
Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Valero
Energy Corp. are among the companies that shut
plants. Closures extended to Lake Charles,
Louisiana, where Citgo Petroleum Corp. was
shutting its refinery, the fourth-largest in the
U.S., according to an Energy Department report
yesterday.

Crude
Oil

Crude
oil for November delivery was little changed in
electronic trading at $66.59 a barrel, up 9
cents, at 9:08 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, oil
fell 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $66.50, having
earlier reached $68.14. Oil reversed when the
storm was downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane
from Category 5. Futures have fallen 6.1 percent
since touching a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug.
30, the day after Katrina made landfall. Prices
are 37 percent higher than a year ago.

Rita
was located about 405 miles southeast of
Galveston as of 4 p.m. local time, the hurricane
center said. The storm is moving west-northwest
at 9 mph and is expected to turn gradually
towards the northwest during the next 24 hours,
it said.

On
this track, the core of Rita will be approaching
the southwest Louisiana and the upper Texas
coast late Friday,'' the center said. Exxon
Mobil said it is closing its 557,000
barrels-a-day Baytown, Texas, refinery, the
nation's largest, and another plant in Beaumont.
Valero is shutting plants in Texas City and
Houston. Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP Plc also
closed or slowed operations yesterday.

Higher
Prices

``If
some refineries are damaged prices will rise
higher than they did as a result of Katrina,''
said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk
management at Alaron Trading Corp. ``There would
be record pump prices, which would eventually go
down because demand will fall as the economy
falters. There comes a point when people will
reduce driving and I think we're close.''

Regular-grade
gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 0.9 cent to
$2.755 a gallon yesterday, according to data
released yesterday by the AAA, the nation's
largest motoring organization. Prices have
declined 9.9 percent since touching a record
$3.057 on Sept. 2. Heating
oil for October delivery yesterday rose 0.71
cent, or 0.4 percent, to $2.0458 a gallon.
Futures touched $2.21 on Sept. 1, the highest in
27 years of trading on the exchange. Heating oil
was at $2.0285 in after-hours trading.

Natural
gas for October delivery yesterday rose 19.6
cents, or 1.6 percent, to $12.79 per million
British thermal units, the highest close since
trading began in 1990. Prices, which touched
$13.42, an intraday record, have more than
doubled in the past year. The contract traded at
$12.87 at 9:10 a.m. Sydney time.