@Duncan; Did you bother to read our hosts article or did just use it to have a rant? All that you claim are betrayals by the PM are not her Brexit positions but those of the EU – to put in to language even you might understand, your rant is a bit like blaming Chamberlain & Churchill for the outbreak of WW2…

Hard line Brexiteers had their chance back in 2016 when Cameron resigned, but all either never stood or withdraw, get over it!

“Hard line Brexiteers had their chance back in 2016 when Cameron resigned, but all either never stood or withdraw, get over it!”
“but all either never stood or withdrew.” You do not seem to appreciate the threats applied by the elites on the leave candidates during the leader election process. Andrea Leadsom did not withdraw for no reason. The elites wanted a wet rag like Theresa May who they could control.

@getahead; “[candidates] did not withdraw [or indeed not put their names forward] for no reason.”

Other than realising that the job (leading a divided party, never mind country) was going to be a career ending poison chalice perhaps, as “events” have proved since – no need for any shadowy conspiracy theories…

Robotic, Bexitina May is a huge electoral liability and simply must go as soon as possible, a way must be found. Not only has she a broken compass on Brexit but she is a Libdim on nearly every other issue too. She even thinks 15% stamp duty, tax ’til the pip squeak Hammond is a suitable person to be Tory Chancellor!

Ah the polls, the same ones Run by the ennobled Curtice who was telling May she would have a 40 plus Majority, those that said to the editor of this board that the lid on the jar was no longer sealed but ajar are being proven correct. Its all they needed to stop the will of the People.

It is not a transition it is an extension without voice. A vassal state to brought to heal. The EU expect the U.K. To accepts its punishment for leaving as an example to the other EU countries.

Lords Lawson and King were quite right, the EU cannot give the U.K. a good deal otherwise the rest would leave. There was never a need to extend this is a ruse. How many years do the minority businesses need? If everything remains the same it is not a achieving anything, because nothing changes!

You are allowing remainers to create the narrative that Leave is all about trade . It is not. This is always a tactic at elections to scare voters. It is being used now with the help of the civil service and all associated bodies.

Action: walk away now.
Get a good communication dept, to rebut and create positive view of the U.K. Leaving the EU, as Dennis pointed out adfinitum.
Make sure the U.K. has pacts with countries outside the EU, like the US, to act against any possible illegal action against the U.K. Match kind with kind.
EU has demonstrated it can break treaties or rules at will when it wants. The U.K. to demonstrate exactly the same.
Hammond sacked. Hewood sacked. Carney sacked. Rudd sacked for being totally incompetent and not keeping us safe, including current crime at home.
Direct MI5/6 to instigate inquiries on all of those, wherever they might be, engaged in acts of subversion. Out them and use media against them.
Above all the govt is expected to be bold and do something rather than rolling belly up.
JR you and your colleagues created this situation by voting a remainer as PM. She was always going to skew cabinet and groups towards remaining as close as possible as close as possible. A clue, Clarke supported her!

Agreed, Duncan. It is a tragedy that all Mr Redwood can apparently do is hope or “trust” that Davis is upholding the commitment to Brexit. What a terrible state of affairs – the Cons party has apparently been emasculated. That is what so many years of being ruled by another power has done to our politicians. They are not apparently used to the responsibility of power, of exercising that power for the good of the country and for fighting up for our country as an independent sovereign nation. There is a less polite way of stating this, but despite my anger and despair at the Conservatives, in particular May and the Remainers, I will refrain.

Try to convince enough people and maybe you will have power. So far that is the one thing lacking. The only power the brexiteer caucus has is to wreck a decent conservative government. Not to force Mr Redwood’s dream (no) deal because Parliament will not agree to that.

It is foolhardy to predict what Parliament may or may not agree to several months from now, once the final deal has been negotiated and put to the vote.
If enough Members of Parliament (even for entirely various and mutually contradictory reasons ) reject *any part* of the deal May presents, then No Deal it will be: we shall exit the EU in March 2019, and there is no time on either side for any different EU deal to be concluded between October 2018 and March 2019.
On current form, Corbyn will whip Labour MPs into opposing any deal at all that is negotiated by May, as would the SNP. So May would need to satisfy pretty well the whole of her party plus the DUP that whatever deal she reaches is lastingly beneficial. The terms the EU is currently proposing do not satisfy a large section of the party.
If May is replaced (after resigning or losing a personal vote of confidence) it will not be Corbyn who takes over but another Tory. (See the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.) The next General Election is not due until 2022.

I cannot see any point in continuing to negotiate .
We need leadership now to say ‘ there’ s no point in negotiating with these people .We will come out on W TO terms in a years time.
Cancel the transition phase and all the baggage that goes with that and let’s start again .’

( this time let’s take our hosts advice and negotiate with pace )

If the PM really can’t see that we are being led by the nose to a national humiliation then she must be persuaded by men in suits that she has lost the confidence of 17.4 million and must go .
She cannot continue nor can Hammond and Rudd .
We have very little time left so action this day !

“I hope that Theresa May’s letter will make it clear that she is notifying the EU of the UK’s intention to withdraw using the Article 50 procedure, but without prejudice to any general right of withdrawal under wider international law. They should know from the start that we are not binding ourselves to stick with that procedure if they try to mess us about.”

They are not just messing us about, thanks to the over-conciliatory attitude of our government they are now treating us with open contempt.

There is absolutely no need for all persons and businesses in Northern Ireland to remain subject to EU law, as with the rest of the UK only a small minority will be engaged in the exportation of goods to the Republic.

It is a passionate frustrated outburst and shared by all those patriotic individuals that wish a positive outcome from Brexit. The others, unfortunately, display anti-Brexit sentiments and therefore, in my opinion, anti-sovereign feelings!

The key point here is that the EU is bullying the UK each day and spinless T. May and her ineffectual negotiation colleagues, acquiesce on every EU belligerent demand!

Our present Government simply will not stand up to these threatening bullies…shameful!

Getahead..what do you expect?..don’t you know by now that the conservative party is the party of big business..of course they are going to do whatever business and banking says.. but the crunch will be the Irish border because theres no easy way to square that..it’ll end up we’ll be in some kind of CU with them..abaolutely no doubt

@getahead; All you ever do is complain that what you want is not happening, do you even understand the concept of “Democracy”, I some how doubt it. 🙁

No one is being forced, if the electorate wanted the sort of Brexit you want a majority would have voted for UKIP last June, but nor do I hear calls from you or the UKIP type of hard-line Brexiteer wanting that second referenda that would instruct the Govt. (which ever party, who ever the PM is) how the country should leave the EU, when, and perhaps even what sort of relationship post Brexit etc.

Reply If a majority had wanted to reject Brexit or hold a second referendum they would have voted into office a Lib Dem government in 2017. We had that clear choice and decisively rejected it

Won’t VW will need an appropriate banking licence, maybe even a passport? Why should they be granted this in view of the threats against the UK by EU bureaucrats and countries.

Even if our civil servants acquiesce who would have any dealings with a company responsible for the emissions scandal and, according to the Guardian, is now under fire from politicians globally for emissions testing on monkeys and humans.

Then don’t buy their cars, is my advice. And if you see any monkeys being tested in the foyer of a VW bank, call the RSPCA immediately.
More inward investment, (and the banks’ taxes) are most welcome in the UK. We need more banking competition.
Many banks already here in the UK tested their noxious policies of over-lending on human taxpayers and were bailed out, and their directors walked off with millions : where was the moral outrage then?

The UK is currently a member of the EU. VW has a banking licence in the EU: Volkswagen Financial Services has a subsidiary called Volkwagen Bank GmbH. The latter benefits from EU passporting also in the UK and they must feel that they need to be prepare for the future where the UK will not be part of the Single Market. They are not the only ones of course. But the impression that VW is making an investment in UK banking is misplaced. They are just maintaining what they already have.

I didn’t intend to buy their cars. VW probably won’t be a “bank” but need an operation to manage their customer financing. This is not an investment in the UK it is merely a way to protect their financial exposure and continue selling their vehicles here.

My point remains we should reciprocate EU treatment of our companies and people.

It is being reported today that Mr Barnier is now suggesting a ” transition period ” is not a done deal !

Mrs Merkel also reported as saying “I’ll take UK Banks and Financial Firms from City of London”

Mrs May are these are the so called “friends” in the EU that you are saying you want to get on with ?

Wake up.
The longer the transition period, the longer they have to frustrate us to trade outside the EU, and the longer they have to prepare to attack our trade, manufacturers and financial institutions..

There’s an old saying “all politics is local”. On that basis, Merkel and Macron are going to act in the interests of German and French voters respectively. After all, that’s what they were elected to do.

If they see this as an opportunity to bring additional incremental economic activity, jobs and, ultimately tax revenue to their countries from the UK, that’s what they will look to do as it benefits the people who elect them.

We can form agreements any time we like but we can’t enter into them until we are finally clear..march 2019 in the case of walking away or december 2020 in the case where we enter the transition period

May capitulated to phase one with an awful agreement why would he EU, JR or anyone else expect anything else. The EU views her as a weak and a remainer at heart. She completely rolled over in phase one, why not now? May even had the temerity this week, again, to claim she achieved something to fool her array and voters. Read the text it is an awful one sided agreement. What did the EU concede, nothing.

Davis needs to explain his accounting figures to reach the settlement. They do not add up or support past comments and statements. The taxpayer does not owe the EU £100 billion, £40 billion once UK assets are deducted. According to Davis.

After two years it would change our minds to remain. This is choreographed. If you were another country outside the EU and saw what was going on what sort of trade deal would you demand from the U.K.?

We are being treated as a ‘vassal state’ because we are behaving like one.

Our negotiating team and Mrs May, should make the UK’s FTA terms known, as did the EU, so that it will be clear to all trading partners we are being reasonable and the EU is not. Perhaps then we may get support from those who do want to trade with us.

“we are being treated like a vessel state because we are behaving like one.”

Exactly.
We would not have needed to ask for a transition period had our Government stood firm and made our views known to the EU at the very start.
For goodness sake what planning were we doing during the 9 months it took to send in the Article 50 letter, absolutely nothing it would seem !

The EU are in the weaker position, but we have been dancing to their tune and schedule ever since the referendum.

Quite a shameful performance by our Government so far, with seemingly little or no real vision or drive.

Do I now see a little bit of determination from May and Davis of late, perhaps, but only after insults have been made !
A real leader would never have allowed this complicated mess to manifest itself.

@Peter Wood; “We are being treated as a ‘vassal state’ because we are behaving like one.”

No we are not, we are being treated like one because we wish to leave the EU, upsetting the federalist eurocrats apple cart, They always turn nasty when their project is threatened cast your mind back to how the same eurocrats treated Greece when their economy became a basket-case due to the Euro and international credit crisis, before that demanding countries like Ireland vote again when a treaty had been rejected by the electorate.

All the UK and its govt. is guilty of is attempting to leave the EU according to international law.

If it wasn’t for Mr Barniers occasional press conferences we wouldn’t have a clue about what is going on..it’s mrs may & co that are treatibg the british lije a vassal state in denying them prope r up to date infornation about what is going on..hopefully later this morning we might hear from michel barnier again

It is not £40 billion. It is £100 billion less U.K. assets which comes to about £40 billion. That was Davis response to Priti Patel at Westminster. The half wit Davis accepted we owed the amount despite Lords saying we owed nothing!

Indeed the EU are being absurd, this could never be remotely acceptable (not even to remainer dopes like Theresa May). If they are not prepared to be sensible over the negotiation just leave now. They are supposed to negotiate in good faith under the terms of the Section 50 notice. Indeed had Cameron served the notice (as he promised to) to the day after the referendum (and had Cameron and the Civil Service prepared for the leave vote as they negligently failed to do) then we would be leaving on 24th June this year. We would have saved a fortune by doing so.

The sooner we leave the better, they can do us far more harm if we are in than when we are out. Get out and go for a low tax, small government, cheap energy, free trade model as soon as possible. May clearly has to go as she is a Libdim who cannot not see this!

All Barnier does is repeat his negotiating brief. And that comes from his 27 masters. All of them more or less democratic countries and none with a population that thinks the EU is a bad idea (there are always minorities who think otherwise but they are not gaing influence right now). There is absolutely no reason to make a fuss here. If the UK does not like it, there is nothing to talk about, obviously. No one is going to send an army or so, but some may withdraw investments.

Don’t make a fuss then, just stick calmly to the facts.
You seem to have forgotten (and I can’t think why 🙂 that in the Netherlands a 56% majority in a public opinion poll in March 2017 voted to leave the EU, and the second highest-represented parliamentary party has promised to take the Netherlands out of the EU.
And where they love the EU so much they voted in a referendum against the Treaty of Lisbon when it was first presented under the guise of a ‘Constitution’.
And that’s only one example among 27.

There must be a misunderstanding. The vast majority of the Dutch population does not want to leave the EU (like every other electorate they are never in complete agreement about the status quo but there has never been a majority in favour of leaving the EU. “Leave” supporters would probably represent less than 15% if there was a choice.

You may be mistaken by a very poorly designed referendum about the EU-Ukraine association agreement. That referendum just cleared the minimum turnout hurdle (30%) and around 60% (would have to look this up, it was a farce) was in favour of not signing that agreement. Hernce less than 20% of the population voted against that treaty. In the past there has been a referndum about the treaty changes that had a “constitution” flavour. That was rejected in a number of countries for a variety of reasons. In hindsight people realized that they had been misinformed and there was hardly any opposition when the same treaty was accepted by Parliament a year later. You shoud do your homework and not rely on bad sources.

Reply A win is a win – why was it ignored? The non voters could have voted in favour if they thought it was something they wanted.

Yes, the EU does seem to be saying as clearly as possible to the UK – don’t talk to us. It will be difficult for the EU to give a much clearer message to the UK – you need to leave and sort yourself out. Why the UK Govt continues to believe this is a negotiation continues to be unfathomable. A swift announcement now and a year to prepare, even the EU seems be doing its best to communicate this.

The EU does not want a transition period, it wants a Withdrawal Agreement that will conclude the Art 50 process by March end 2019 or sooner if possible.

As far as I can understand from second and third hand info from Brussels, the EU just wants to shut down any further negotiation, and just let the Art 50 clock run down. Which they reckon will aid Mrs May to put the UK hard Brexiteers, in a put up or shut up position.

The anchor point for the endogenous EU27, is the UK becoming a “third country” at March 29; 2019. That will then be the start point, as if the UK had just arrived on the planet, for an economic relationship of some type with the EU in an Art 49 type scenario.

There is so much confusion in this saga now, it is near impossible to discover what game the UK is playing. Alas, the EU is playing it to the rule book. Every statement or action Barnier makes or takes, gets a tick from an EU / International Treaty Lawyer.

Acorn..makes perfect sense to me ..the EU wants UK out in march 2019 with no transition period to anywhere..they realize there are too many in UK still convinced that UK can go it alone as a third country so the heads in Brussels have decided a couple of decades out in the cold will be the only thing to concentrate minds..they have decided they are not going to put up any longer with this non stop whinge and insults from the likes of Farage, Hannan and all of the other home grown political tory class..brexiteers want out and yhat is whatvthey will get

I think it is very clear on both counts- while the UK is in transition it will not be allowed to entet into trade agreements with countries that the EU has exclusive deaks with already.. makes sense to me..when UK leaves the EU completely then we will be free to take up whatever we lije and with whomever we like..makes perfect sense from a EU point of view.

The other point about the UK parluament not being able to exercise sovereignity independently and seperately from the EU while still in transition also makes sense..after december 2020 we’ll be free to do as we wish..this is what is meant by being in a transition period..we will still be required to folliw the rules

But that is no transition – merely a way of extending the Art. 50 period in the hope that the EU *might* offer a final deal that *might* be in our interests. We do not need that, and we should not rely on it.
A hundred years ago, MPs would be touring the country explaining to the people from different viewpoints what this all implies. These days everyone relies on the BBC and the global media to inform them – a grave mistake.

That is the essence of misinformation about this. “What the EU …thinks it can get away with” . Barnier has a mandate of sorts. That mandate has been agreed by 27 member states and it is strict. It will be difficult to change and there is little time for another round of internal consultation. So what Barnier says based on his mandate (and he has no authority to say anything else) is the only thing on offer. That is not “what the EU thinks it can get away wtih”. It is simply stating on what basis the member that wants to separate can create space to adjust to a new sort of relationship. I am sure the EU has already discounted the possibility that it will be a hard brexit. But that does not mean that all kinds of stupid emotions come into play. This is not a schoolyard.

It is as if the Brussels are following the Kaiser’s action when presenting Serbia with an ultimatum that under no circumstances could they accept which lead to war. Perhaps it is on the orders of the Current Kaiserine. No that is being facetious and I am sure Merkel has no hand in it. However what the EU is demanding is no less acceptable and should be rejected. If it leads to a no deal and conflict bloodless hopefully this time then so be it. Perhaps reminding the EU that the Kaiser in the end lost his conflict with Serbia the same fate could be awaiting the EU with this conflict with the UK.

“It should be noted that the detailed provisions relating to the financial settlement aspects of the transition will be covered under the Financial Provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement. In addition to the elements contained in the Joint report of 8 December 2017, the Financial Provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement should also cover the financing, during the transition period, of the relevant Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy agencies or operations on the basis of the same contribution key as before the withdrawal date.” https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/transition.pdf

Before going home, do 100 lines stating “I have been a naughty boy and will not make such outrageous requests again.” On completion to our satisfaction you will find that the school bus has already left.

The EU paper on transition should be put where the sun does not shine. If they persist it is no transition, no ex gratia payment for the privilege of transition and WTO rules. The Irish internal border can go electronic.

For decades there have been foolish ‘predictions’ that NI will vote to join the RoI ‘in a couple of years’ – and it never happens.
Indeed, what would be their motivation to do so? Since the Belfast Agreement the Northern Irish have the best of both worlds – British subsidies the RoI cannot afford to give them, and both UK and RoI nationality as of right, with trouble-free cross-border travel access, and peace. There is so far a perpetually strong majority for remaining in the Union, and not only among the Province’s protestant voters.
The notion of a hard border is simply the EU trying to make things difficult. There are countless international precedents for soft borders.

Not all people in NI share that view, obviously. Just look at the demograhics and imagine a rapidly decaying NI economy (not implausible according to polls in NI) and a Republic made into a showcase of EU benefits. The Republic used to be poor and backward, that is no longer the case and with more progressive policies (abortion for instance) in the pipeline, who would not like to swap Paisley’s Paradise for life on Earth.

No, it’s you who are ignoring the demographics. The hackneyed prediction that Republicans in NI would be outbreeding the Unionists hasn’t had any foundation for years now. Contraception saw that trend off years ago. As academic studies have shown, there has been a ‘dramatic decline’ in fertility (the statistical TPFR) in the RoI since the 1980s. And as you point out, their birthrate will be further limited by the easy access to abortion. This is reflected in TPFR studies in NI that show the two population fertility rates (Catholic and Protestant) converging: there is also a wholesale decline in Catholic adherence to the Church’s anti-contraception rules.

You also ignore the obvious political fact that as soon as the RoI is prosperous enough to be able to incorporate NI, it will also be forced to become a net contributor to the EU. Germany and France are not going to pay RoI for its territorial aggrandisement.

The EU transition legal text is designed to humiliate the UK and make leaving look as unattractive as possible. It’s unclear to me why would the EU back down on this – They just have to say these are our terms – take them or leave them.

They hope that the UK will change its mind when it sees how unattractive the transition proposals are, especially since they will undoubtedly last far longer than anyone can imagine now. What is our alternative? The UK has no realistic prospect of agreeing to leave without a deal in March 2019, as both we and the EU are not ready for that outcome. We would have to be prepared to accept massive disruption and a huge economic hit.

And of course once we enter transition, we have no realistic prospect of getting out of it again in any reasonable timeframe. Once we are in transition, paying full EU dues like a member would, without any representation, the EU would have no incentive to sign any deal with the UK at all, as any deal would represent worse terms for them. They would be happy for this form of transition to continue indefinitely, so they can keep saying no, taking our money every year and wearing us down.

All of this is designed to ensure the UK returns to being a member. We can complain all we like, but we have no realistic alternative unless we are prepared to take substantial economic pain , so I expect Mrs May will capitulate again, just like she did in December.

Enough is Enough. Time to walkaway from this Farce and tell the EU where to go. Any excuses as to we haven’t got time to set things up for WTO terms need swift pull your finger out to the civil service or we find start firing the top dogs and replace them with those that can. There just has not been the political will to carry out the democratic will of the British people from day one, despite all the fine words, to date they are nothing but lip service and I blame that on the conservative party for selecting a weak Pm and a remainer to boot.

That some people still wish our country to be a part of this ‘organisation’ I find utterly perplexing. What is it that they find so admirable in these autocrats that they wish our country to become (remain) subservient to their expansionist and inept institution? What do they think would happen should our country suddenly decide to remain shackled? Open arms? Back-slapping? Delighted kisses from Juncker? Or even more punishment for having the temerity to wish to cut ourselves free?
So many questions. All unanswered by remainders.

The EU is not autocratic. It is, in fact, far more democratic than Westminster is or ever will be. The problem I find is that most Brexiteers haven’t bothered to find out how the EU works. A quick conversation with an average Brexiteer exposes a woeful lack of knowledge. (Though I try to avoid such conversation as they invariable end up whining on about immigrants.)

The EU is only expansionist in the sense that lots of countries still want to join, and existing members see huge benefits in working more closely together.

The EU would also welcome us back. It is sad to see us go. It looks at a country which has been conned by the vile hard-right and shakes its head in sadness. Like a friend watching someone they love suffer a mid-life crisis. Brexiteers are the political equivalent of a middle aged man buying a sports car in the hope of attracting a woman 20 years younger. The reality is that the car will spend most of its time in the garage and, when it’s not, you’ll look like a twit when you drive it.

Absolutely disgraceful. How can a once proud and decent country be humiliated in such a way.
It’s time May went on the airwaves and publicly denounced the EU bullying approach and tell the nation that we are walking away.
Evert day that goes by I realise the decision to leave was correct.
GDP is but a small part in the big picture.
Sovereignty is first, middle and last.
Enough and be damned.

That remark seems rather a rude rant in itself. You are implying that anyone who regards national sovereignty as a matter of primary importance must be ‘a retired pensioner’; and implying just as erroneously that a pensioner is less affected by any short-term risks, and has fewer rights to decide what is best for the country – which is patronising nonsense.

Unacceptable to whom..Uk has started the running on all of this..the EU is only looking out for its own.. The PM is still talking up how she will cherry pick..ell i’m afraid wr’ve been wrll warned on that front..as we shall hear from Barniwr in a short while

Why are you, Blue and Gold, so fixated on the ”daily lives” of people and personal finances? Most of us who voted ‘out’ feel sovereignty and the ability to run our own UK affairs to be paramount, and would be prepared to shoulder some negative change (though we believe there will be little or none). Yet you and your ilk merely want your comfortable life to continue. There IS no status quo with the execrable EU.

Those two quotes from the EU paper are truly shocking. Should Mrs May and Mr Davies even consider accepting any part of this then they will will be well ahead of Cameron in the capitulation and grovelling stakes, not to mention the international humiliation, reputational damage and damage to British business.

As Boris Johnson once said in Parliament. ‘Will this return sovereignty, Prime Minister?’ (This may not be the exact wording)

Strange remark. EU member states have plenty of freedom. It is states that leave the EU, burbling about taking back control, that find they have no freedom. Welcome to vassal status – it is what you voted for

In other words, MPs have been fooling us all this time as our actual ruler has been the Brussels regime, ably assisted by the President of France and the German Chancellor; I suggest an immediate cut in MPs’ salaries whilst they continue to perform rather poorly in a Living History Museum to be re-instated when Sovereignty returns once again to these shores.

I totally agree with your views and wonder why our government is still trying to be pleasant to these people. They are never going to be reasonable. We should stop paying the money now and pull out of the whole eu as soon as possible. No transition period which can only make matters worse and give the eu time to do further damage.

I am not a remainer but I think it is clear and pretty precise, unlike the Lancaster etc speeches. When is the UK going to reply or offer its own proposals? That is what Barnier complains about and he is very right.

You will not receive a meaningful answer (or very rarely) from Remainers. They no longer have a forceful voice and they know it; hence their continued puerile bleating and delusive narratives. Then when all else fails they resort to teasing or irritating Brexiteers at every opportunity.

Rather funny actually, given the harder they try the more amusing they become. Remember, they blew their chance with project fear…they have nothing left in the locker! Therefore, treat the boorish behaviour with the disdain it deserves!

….or better ask them a simple question: “What are the tangible benefits derived from EU membership vs the costs?” They then become surprisingly quiet.

The only way they will every deal sincerely with us is if we walk away and go onto WTO rules. Then I think they will come running to us. When is Mrs May and David Davies going to do something on behalf of those of us who knew what we voted for and it wasnt for this stupid transition. I and I believe countless others think that we could have sorted out what to do for our businesses and that is tell them to prepare for no deal from the start. Going onto WTO rules at the end of 2 years. I cant believe that the Government still hasnt got its act together. I am sure you, Jacob and other would have had this long sorted

Without healthy global politics, you can’t have democracy. Right?
BUT so often 20th century, European politicians politicians neglected global politics. We ended up with the following:

1. Nazis. Destruction of British people, economy and cities. Millions dead across Europe. Holocaust. Destruction of democracy across much of Europe.

2. Socialism. Wrecking our economy. Envy and class warfare.

3. Communism. Russian Revolution. Cold war.

4. The horrors of WW1

5. The IRA and lots more.

A prosperous Europe = a safe and secure Europe = a safe and secure UK.

– EU played key role in building up prosperous Europe (look at Ireland).
– Building prosperous Europe makes UK more safe (the prosperity of Ireland largely eradicated violent Irish nationalism).
– Building prosperous Europe gives UK more close trading partners closer to home (look at Ireland, now rich, once poor).
– Be sheer complacency to think horrors of 20th century Europe could never happen again. Maybe not in same way. But in similar or different ways.

So our democracy depends on global politics. And a prosperous, safe + secure Europe is key. Just look at our history. Brexiters are very quiet about this. Why? And i think they have a responsibility to respond.

Ireland (meaning here the RoI) joined the EEC in 1973.
The Belfast Agreement was in 1998.

So it took twenty-five years of EU membership for the RoI to become prosperous enough for the IRA to agree to keep the peace? And now they’ve walked out of the government and forced London to take over the Province’s administration, and threatened to resume an armed conflict if they don’t get their way, that presumably means the RoI has become less prosperous since 1998…:-)

There’s nothing controversial about making the connection between prosperity and peace / between poverty and anarchy.

‘and threatened to resume an armed conflict if they don’t get their way, that presumably means the RoI has become less prosperous since 1998…:-)’

– You’re simply applying logic when logic, alone, is insufficient. You need logic + an understanding of N. Ireland. Which is that there are many reasons for violence in N. Ireland. But prosperity (/ economic stability) is the main one now keeping Ireland from falling into the anarchy of the 1970’s / 1980’s. Not saying it’s impossible. But prosperity makes it a lot harder.

How much money have Ireland paid into the EU coffers over the last 40 years? Their economy would crumble if they become a net contributor and we impose tariffs on their exports to UK. We can get agricultural goods and services from Commonwealth countries. The EU is just a protection racket run for the benefit of France and Germany. A secure Europe is entirely due to NATO.

– NATO / its forerunner / the USA didn’t prevent the rise of – from the 20th century – the Nazis, socialists, Communists, revolutions, the Holocaust, WW1, the Blitz, the IRA and so on. What has kept the peace in Europe is mainly prosperity / economic stability (as opposed to the poverty and general economic turmoil of Europe in the 20th century).

Also, Ireland’s long-term future not as bad as you make out.

– Strong high tech + financial services industries now.
– Lots of foreign investment including USA
– Foreign companies love Dublin (cultural city with lots of modern amenities)
– An English-speaking country
– Small enough to be flexible in its overall economic approach

I agree with you. I think we’d be much better off with the EEC than the EU. I wish our politicians had focused more on trying to reform the EU back to the EEC. There are many big problems with the EU.

But we also have to look at the big problems of having no EU. We only have to look at the first half of the 20th century and compare it to the history of the EEC / EU to see that Europe has enjoyed greater prosperity and peace.

NATO / America is only able to REACT to imminent violence or when violence has already broken out. It is NOT able to prevent the rise of ‘movements’ such as Nazism or Communism or socialism or violent Republicanism etc . These ‘movements’ rise because of poverty and/or economic turmoil in a country or region. What is able to prevent the rise of these movements is PROSPERITY. And that is exactly what the EEC / EU has achieved the last 40 years for Europe as a whole.

‘These ‘movements’ rise because of poverty and/or economic turmoil in a country or region’ – they rise for other reasons as well (including manipulating an economic situation to their own advantage – the Nazis, Communists, socialists etc .. all using economic situations to make a power grab). But without economic turmoil evil movements are not able to get a foothold. They can only manipulate and thrive where there is economic turmoil / poverty.

Lots of countries in the EU think the UK has enjoyed privileged status in the EU with all its op-outs.

Again, not saying give EU carte blanche. We should be a pain in the ass trying to reform it to our advantage. To make good, strong arguments to the rest of the EU why the EU needs to be reformed, learning a thing or two from good, old British practical common sense.

But throwing the baby out with the bathwater isn’t good sense or practical. We never even tried to reform the EU (getting op-outs for the UK is NOT the same as trying to reform the EU as a whole).

We just haven’t had these serious arguments in detail at a national level.

52 percent disagreed with you after extensive debate.
It is you who are the demagogue and defending your EU which is of the same hue.
I guess you’d also ban sports cars for the over 40s, albeit they’re less likely to kill themselves driving them? You need a lesson in the benefits of freedom of thought.

Also, it’s like some people are putting their hands over their ears and just going, ‘I’m not listening, I’m listening.’ That’s not healthy.

I don’t know what the best outcome is. It might be better to be completely of the EU. Or halfway in. Or whatever. What i do know is that a country needs to have a proper debate and explore all options. And parliament is the best place for that especially over something as complicated as the EU – this is precisely the sort of reason we have politicians with the intelligence, experience and wisdom to best approach such things. That just hasn’t or isn’t happening. It’s like blind ideology has taken over (and/or ruthless political ambition taking advantage of this ideology but don’t really believe it), and people obsessing about something not worth being obsessed about, but could have serious consequences if we get wrong.

I love my country and i want the best for it and i don’t care if people don’t like me for it. Churchill was unpopular. I’m not saying i’m like him or right on the EU (i might well be wrong), but i know there is a lot of shut down of debate going on in Parliament and outside. And that just isn’t healthy or right.

Ed Mahony, Brexiteers are quiet about it because your argument is fundamentally wrong. Your premises are wrong, your logic is flawed.
The central principle of democracy is rule by the consent of the governed. The body of law on which it rests is the law of the land of the governed people. A valid result of democracy could be Sharia, but that is unacceptable in UK because the people in UK reject Sharia and have the power to do so only so long as there is rule by consent established in the constitution.
Clearly if society is very divided there is unlikely to be consent on many issues. Therefore democracy only works in coherent cohesive societies which are therefore necessarily restricted in terms of diversity and territory. That is why the EU has no demos – it is too diverse and too wide geographically. That is why supra-national government is fundamentally anti-democratic and why the EU takes sovereignty from its member states unto itself, making it even more unaccountable as its ‘competencies’ increase at the expense of the parliamentary democracies of its constituent nation states.
Brexit is about restoring sovereignty to UK so that the people voted into Parliament are the people who really govern UK rather than the EU government which is not answerable to the people of UK.

‘The central principle of democracy is rule by the consent of the governed’

– Which is why we’re governed by Parliament and not plebiscites.

If we’re going to be governed by plebiscites then let’s make the plebiscite or referendum clear what people are voting for (lots of leading Brexiters said/inferred leaving the EU was nothing to do with leaving the single market. As well as using lots of divisive and sensational chicanery). 10 years ago D Davis said he was against such referendums. He also said leaving the EU was as complicated as a ‘moon landing.’ N Dorries says she doesn’t stand the CU. Lastly, for most people, the EU is only 20th on their list of priorities. So in reality, Parliament are not really representing the real wishes of the people when they’re spending so much time on Brexit.

Anyway, ‘the principle of democracy’ only works when you have prosperity and economic stability. Without this, you end up with Nazis, Communists, socialists, wars, holocausts on our doorsteps and cities. Just look at the 20th century before the EEC / EU. A world at war that League of Nations / Nato / America can only stop – at great cost – once the movements and conflicts have already started. We want prevention not cure. And the EEC / EU has proved itself good at prevention by helping to built up prosperity throughout Europe.

When i think of serious politicians such as Churchill being mocked and side-lined for warning against the dangers of Nazism before they it powerful, and then look at Boris Johnson laughing about something that has potentially serious outcomes. Not even Gary Kasparov can work out all the variables – political / social / economic – that could unravel post Brexit. However, unlike Gary Kasparov, i don’t see any of the Brexiters coming up with BOTH the logical/analytical as well the intuitive/creative thinking – the big, comprehensive strategy and vision – that is required for something as complicated as Brexit. Get it wrong. And it could be bad – terrible.

Sorry, but i’m only TRYING to apply logic, common sense, and intuition, whilst listening to the ‘experts’ (including neutral ones) – economic and political and global political. I might be wrong. But one can’t be wrong in trying to understand as best as possible and test. Test. Test. As one would do in science, business or the military.

It’s those at home, not abroad that I’ve always worried about and they are ramping it up – they are on the EU’s side and the EU knows it.

The fomentation of hatred against old English people is particularly disgusting. It’s one thing I did not expect.

Remain have gone way down and dirty.

What young people don’t realise is just how quickly they’ll get old themselves, they think youth lasts forever. Once age hatred is established the people who will abuse them won’t care if they voted remain or not.

I wish I could tell a 25-year-old that *old* will reach them not in fifty years but in twenty – at least that’s how short the years feel.

Young people LOVE old people as long as they are nice and not grumpy (old people CAN be very grumpy just as young people can, as you suggest, be over-confident etc).

My great aunt knocked back her second strong vermouth before lunch and said, ‘i know i’m 90 but i feel like i’m 21’. Age is a state of mind, and there is good and bad in all ages. Stop picking on the young!

– And death is but a doorway to a new life – trillions of times more joyful, peaceful and beautiful than this, and without suffering, and where we get to meet The Good Lord Himself (please God).

Shakespeare gives us a glimpse of this, ‘the clouds methought did open up and show riches ready to drop upon me that when i wak’d i cried to dream again.’

– WB Yeats gives us a glimpse of this, too:
‘O sages standing in God’s holy fire
As in the gold mosaic of a wall,
Come from the holy fire, perne in a gyre,
And be the singing-masters of my soul.
Consume my heart away; sick with desire
And fastened to a dying animal
It knows not what it is; and gather me
Into the artifice of eternity.’

And Charles Dickens gives us a glimpse of this, too, through Scrooge, who like the Prodigal Son was once lost but is now found,
‘ “I don’t know what to do!” cried Scrooge, laughing and crying in the same breath; and making a perfect Laocoön of himself with his stockings. “I am as light as a feather, I am as happy as an angel, I am as merry as a schoolboy. I am as giddy as a drunken man. A merry Christmas to everybody! A happy New Year to all the world. Hallo here! Whoop! Hallo!”

You trust that he will object to those 2 statements, John? Surely, even the most committed Remainers must also object to the proposed total subjugation of Parliament and people to those outrageous proposals.
I cannot believe that even Mrs Mar and remainer cohort will not say (as did Maggie) ‘no, no, no’. If they don’t then we are finished as a nation.

>The Gov will cave in to the EU unless we start making some non-compromise statements ourselves pretty damn quickly.

Mr Barnier, speaking after a week of technical discussions between civil servants on both sides, said that three “substantial” disagreements remained over the transition period.
These are:
The UK’s refusal to guarantee permanent rights to EU nationals who come to live and work in Britain during the transition period
The right of the UK to object to new EU rules and laws during the period
Whether the UK could continue to participate in new justice and home affairs policies during the transition period.
“To be frank, I am surprised by these disagreements. The positions of the EU are very logical, I think,” said Mr Barnier.

The EU have the UK right where it wants it. Weak PM, government and parliament. No idea and no belief in anything they are doing. All the EU have to do is sit and wait and watch it all unravel. They are the ones that do not have to do anything. They are the ones that do not have to concede, and they are the ones that know no matter what, they will still be around after the UK has left, literally or otherwise, the EU.

Dr. R. E. North had a clear plan and a clear vision. Not perfect. Not to everyone’s, including mine, taste. But it was a plan. He knew that much would fall down to regulation and the numerous treaties and agreements the EU signed for and on behalf of the UK. Once out of the EU it was always a risk that the UK would not get reciprocal arrangements. The EEA (Norway Option) was the ready made Transitional Phase of the UK’s departure. Many here, including our host, and most shamelessly of all, our government, dismissed this option without giving it a chance. So be it. But now the EU is turning on the pressure and the woeful and inept PM and divided government is be taken the pee out of. All very predictable and avoidable.

If you leave a club but sort of want to stay in it temporarily, surely you’d agree to abide by the rules set by the club? Maybe it’s finally starting to dawn on you that ‘you can’t have your cake and eat it’ after all, no matter how much the UK’s
snake-oil salesman in chief, Boris Johnson, protests to the contrary!

This is becoming unbearable. Why do we behave in such a weak-kneed fashion? Our mistake was at the very start when we triggered Article 50 but then went cap in hand to ask for favours. Our PM and Chancellor just ask to be bullied. Let’s start again and tell the EU we are coming out. Are THEY happy with the consequences or would THEY like to keep access to the UK market. If so we can talk.
It is time the Brexiteers including JR decided that enough is enough and they would no longer tolerate being talked down by the Remainers. The present leadership must go! Come on; who will be the first to stick his head over the parapet.

Local Lad – I believe your words express what we’re all of us feeling. Surely even those die-hard remainders would acknowledge that it’s not good to bow your head before those who have shown their enmity. (Though I wouldn’t bet on that.)

It is clear from the language and tone of the EU that it sees itself as an emerging superstate to which member nations are subservient. What is happening is a result of the EU’s wish to deter other potential leavers, and a fear that an independent U.K. might be seen to do better outside the EU. The EUs approach is wholly dysfuntional and will serve to harden public opinion in the U.K. I think you are in a small minority admiring the antics of (unelected) Barnier and Juncker.

That’s really quite silly, Andy. Perhaps you should go away and rephrase. Too many of us are now laughing at you and you have lost any credibility you had. Was that your intention, to make a mockery of yourself and the other remainders?

There should be another clause saying that if the continuing EU and/or any of its member states and/or any of its organs, agents or servants break any provision of the agreement the UK government may take whatever unilateral action it sees fit to punish them.

What is sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander, let any of them step out of line and action will be taken …

I’m getting sick of Michel Barnier and I’m getting sick of the abject weakness of the UK government in dealing with Michel Barnier; at this rate Theresa May will end up signing an instrument of unconditional surrender in a railway carriage …

We have plenty of weapons, it’s just a matter of if or when we want to use them.
Without our support:
– EU drug regulation fails
– EU army fails
– NATO defence of Europe is severely weakened
– EU access to international money markets is restricted
– EU security impacted by loss of UK intelligence
– etc, etc.

I can just imagine it Denis, in a wooded glade in Compiegne. Our strong, robust, and most trusted leader, compelled to attend in the early hours of the morning to sign the final instrument of capitulation. Only to be kept holding on until her EU masters availed themselves towards lunchtime. It would be amusing satire were she not such a laughing stock in reality.

History records how the British are an accommodating lot, until they get their backs up. Theresa May makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end, and I dare say there are a lot more just like me. A Prime Minister who is an international joke is simply not good enough. She certainly doesn’t give the impression of a leader who can take this nation forwards.

Fair comment from our host, but it looks increasingly like whistling in the dark. Like others before her our Prime Minister has conducted these negotiations on the basis of conceding to the EU anything it asks for, then hoping to be thrown a few crumbs which she can present to the nation as a successful deal. Unsurprisingly this will leave us with a complete failure to achieve a meaningful Brexit. That, it appears, has been her intention.

Her Cabinet and her Parliamentary Party have allowed and in many cases encouraged her to do this. We are witnessing a prolonged and readily avoidable national humiliation of a magnitude greater than Suez.. One of the consequences this will be that it will no longer be possible to pretend that Britain can be realistically described as a democracy. Those who say that if voting changes anything it wouldn’t be allowed will have been proved to be realists, not cynics.

James Matthews – wise words. I wonder if those of our representatives (such as our Host) realise that the Future would laud them for being our saviours if only they would step up to the plate at this, our neediest hour. They KNOW what we need – as our host has so ably and frequently described – and those of them who can make their voices heard will not go unnoticed. So surely NOW is the time for action, and not just words – noble though they are, Dr Redwood.

Absolutely correct, what we are seeing is a very simple mass vote ignored. Unless the path changes, essentially immediately, then you are right that this is the end of democracy in the UK, and will eventually follow through to an end of the UK as politicians fail to maintain a shared UK identity. I cannot believe that MPs do not understand what is happening.

It may not be acceptable but it is not surprising. I guess it means “take it or leave it”. The UK government would be very brave (or rather foolish as the saying goes) to play a game of chicken here. It appears that the EU has progressed a little along the path that I foresaw six months ago: why bother with a member that will not keep promises. Good luck!

The interests of EU business and sovereign nations is in the continuation of tariff free trade and financial services with the UK and visa versa.

The EU in the shape of Barnier and his fellow bureaucrats has endeavoured to put every obstacle in the way of the above, culminating in the insulting demands they make of the UK during any transitory period post 29th March 2019. Their demands are more penalisation than negotiation. We the sovereign UK therefore intend to withdraw from any future immediate negotiation until such time that the EU decide to become more constructive or until we the UK decide that on the part of the EU there is no desire for a continued positive relationship of equals with the UK. In such circumstances trade will revert to WTO terms, and there will be no further payment into the EU budget after 29th March 2019. The ball is in your collective court and time is fast running out.

Oh, come on, Rien. Everyone knows by now that the UK is holding the whip hand and that it is being betrayed by its ”negotiators”. We could walk away tomorrow and have your beloved EU masters snapping at our heels. Tell us – why do you think that they are honourable and so worthy of your admiration?

Another example of how the EU hates us so much, that they will try to screw us at every turn…

Surely by now, it should be obvious, that the EU eite are pushing for a HARD BREXIT, so that we can take all the flack and animosity from EU countries when we walk away – They clearly think this would harm us more than it would them.

About John Redwood

John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.