CNN IBN which is trying to steal a march over NDTV in Poll related coverage in India has come up with the first pre poll election survey regarding Karnataka Polls. Covering a sample size of 5124 , CNN IBN is going to town with its prediction that Congress would form the next Government in Karnataka with a clear majority of 114 seats in a 224 seat assembly.While CNN-IBN has stuck its neck out with this prediction,Â discerning observers in KarnatakaÂ are not convinced about the reliability of this survey.Congress has the legacy of the Dharm SinghÂ Government which even the survey itself quotes as a Government less appreciated than that of the JDS-BJP coalition by a huge margin. Entire Karnataka knows that BJP is a party which was cheated by the JDS and hence carries a wide spread sympathy at all levels.Â Â The only change that has occurred recently is the entry of S M Krishna into the Poll campaign. If there hasÂ to be any positive swing of votes in favour of Congress it has to be because of him.Â However public have already perceived that he is an unwanted guest in the Congress party and unlikely to carry weight after the election. He was even earlier popular only in the Cities and his re-emergence can only affect some of the City constituencies where people still appreciate him as a good administrator .But people also know that he is not likely to be preferred as a CM even if he wins unless the result is a big sweep. With most candidates not being his followers, it is unlikely that he would be given the CM’s post even if Congress emerges as the single largest party.The real perceived leaders of Congress in this election areÂ Siddaramaiah and Mallikarjun Kharge and Congress will win or lose based on these two leader’s hold on the electorate,Â one in South Karnataka and the other in North Karnataka. There hold over the voters is however not considered sufficient to get any new voters into the fold of Congress.The dissensions in Congress also cannot have any positive impact on its vote share with too many rebel candidates at fray and no clear indication of who is the CM candidate.The anti-incumbency factor cannot work in favour of Congress since Yediyurappa would be sharing the anti incumbency swing because Kumaraswamy has been considered the incumbent CM in the immediate past and Yediyurappa’s term was too short to be of any significance.Under the circumtances the estimate of the survey that there will be 4% swing in favour of Congress with both BJP and JDS losing 1% each is not a correct estimate of the public mood. It is also not correct to say that BSP will not get more than 2% of the votes.In many of the constituencies the fight would be between BJP and JDS and Congress would be the also ran. Hence the swing predictions and seat predictions are completely off the mark.If we make a simple guesstimate of the voter’s mood swing, we can expect that Congress would lose around 5% of its previous vote share while JDS would lose around 7% of its vote share. This 12 % swing away from these two parties may be shared by BSP with 4% and BJP with 8%. There is no scientific basis for this prediction except a subjective estimate based on the moods of electorate gathered from different places informally since the last few months when the election possibility was being discussed.It appears that the poll has been planted by Congress sympathizers to improve the morale of its cadre which has been adversely affected by the fight for tickets.There will ofcourse be another poll from NDTV which is a traditional supporter of Congress and CNN IBN has only succeeded in cornering NDTV with the first off the mark poll in favour of Congress.Voters will watch such gimmicks in amusement and in the end it would be the credibility of CNN-IBN which would be at stake.

I think ur comments are motivated…if u knew karnataka politics u would not say that the congress isan also ran…

Congress will win in 2008 bcos of the consolidation of anti-lingayat vote of the vokkaligas,OBC’s,minorities and dalits

Sharat said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 2:59 am

No Doubt CNN-IBN poll is motivated ..

Fact of the matter is that our Mr. Rajdeep Sardesai’s of MSM have now started to play the same games in Karnatka they tried to play in Gujarat elections with disastrous results……

BJP is clear leader in current situation with Congress far behind…..

But Media as it is the doormat of Congress will try it’s level best to campaign for Congress…

The best part….People can now see through this old game of Media…..

rakesh said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 3:14 am

This poll is definitely motivated.. no doubt in it… This time Kumaraswamy is definitely going to form the government coz of his pro poor and middle class strategies. Deve Gowda will definitely continue his pro poor facilities. Only Deve Gowda can understand the poor and farmers.. we don’t want anyone other than JDS

For Srivatsa: What I meant when I said “also ran” was that in some constituencies the first two places would belong to BJP and JDS. May be we may debate whether the appropriate use of the word could have been “Some” instead of “many”. But this election is not expected to be a cake walk for Congress. Most of the constituencies would find an equal three way contest with BSP influencing the result in its own way.

114 seats out of 224 for Congress as predicted by the Poll appears to be a gross over estimation.

Looking at the Caste/Religion equation, Lingayats and Vokkaligas are there in all the three major parties. Though the leadership may be with a Lingayat in one party or a Vokkaliga in another party, the other communities in each of these parties are strong enough to be considered equal partners.

Relatively speaking, JDS appears to be dominated by Vokkaligas because Deve Gowda is the leader. But Both Congress and BJP has equal spread of Lingayats and Gowdas and anti Vokkaliga or anti Lingayat sentiments can harm both of them equally.

If caste equations become relevant, then the beneficiary could be BSP and not necessarily Congress. OBCs may be divided across all three parties.

The one unknown factor is how Muslims vote. Will they consolidate with Congress? or get divided across parties? The survey is silent on this crucial factor. Similarly the survey has not factored the effect of rebel candidates.

Hence the result cannot be skewed towards any one party. The most predictable result would be the three way split with BJP and Congress gaining over the last election at the expense of JDS. Any other result including a creditable performance by JDS would be a surprise.

IF YOU WIN SEAT ANTONIO WILL GIVE THEM A BLOW JOB – AN ITALIAN BLOW JOB-

desi homosapien said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 5:02 am

The Dalits, OBCs and Minorities, who are considered the “silent” voters are almost solidly behind the Congress this time.

CNN-IBN’s survey has been carried out scientifically and most pre-poll surveys are more or less on the dot. No media organization would like to put its credibility and reputation at stake by favouring one political party.

Though media organizations like CNN-IBN and NDTV have shown a soft corner for Congress simply because they are also expected to shoulder the social responisibility of keeping communal forces like BJP at bay, their prediction is based on scientific analysis.

Odd Man said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 5:07 am

Yogendra yadav a stooge of the congress.Rajdeep is the biggest hypocrite in independent india.Deccan herald will stoop to any level .
Congress has funded this 5124 sample

Most media organizations believe that they can create a public opinion in favour of one party or the other. This of course is partially true of the local language channels.

In the TV programme the pollster did hedge his risk to say that the prediction is valid “If the poll is held now..”

When they conducted the poll perhaps it was not known that S M Krishna may not contest, Siddu would say that this is his last election and also Jaffer Sheriff had not expresed his disllusionment.

Hence there are too many parameters under which the prediction can be changed by the pollsters and yet call themselves scientific.

If the prediction are believed to be scientific, they need to publicise the algorithm by which they have predicted the swing and seat forecast and what precautions they have taken to chose the sample, how they have asccounted for the delimitation effect etc.

Prashant said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 9:55 am

All these Polls are false.They cannot predict the great mass of people which are based in the rural areas of India, who matter the most when it comes to Elections.
Can anyone tell if anybody succeded in predicting the 2007 State Elections of UP last year.Everyone failed miserably.

How can just a sample of 5000 people indicate the whole trend of crores of voters.

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in April 30th, 2008 at 12:29 pm

Hi,
CNN-IBN forecast on Karnataka Mid-term poll may not be prove correct.
To
The Editor,
Star of Mysore,
Mysore.
Dear Sir,
Sub: Astrological predictions on polls.

MUSINGS ON POLL SURVEY AND ASTROLOGY:
I read your analytical thoughts of the present situation and pre-poll survey as well as astrological predictions.
As per my experience in these 25 years I found planets played key roll on polls and I have got the number of seats as well as percentage of votes.
As per my study on the charts of Mr.H.D.Devegowda, Mr.H.D.Kumaraswaamy and horary charts erected for Mr.B.S.Yediyurappa and Mr.Merajuddheen Patel I have predicted that JD(S) will get 56 seats, Congress will get 65 seats and BJP will secure 79 seats and JD(S) Congress will farm the government and Mr.Merajuddheen Patel will take oath on 27th July 2008.

Mr.H.D.Devegowda now running “Kalpadruma yoga dasha Ravi” and Rahu bhukti these two combined period indicate his power will be Lord Indra as happened in the past when he became CM of Karnataka and PM of India .,then he was running the same “kalpadruma yoga of Venus and Rahu bhukti”.

In fact he will live like lord Indra up to 29th September 2009, and Mr.H.D.Kumaraswaamy running Mercury Dasha Sun bhukti which signifies pitru shapa will not allow him to occupy the CM post I feel astrologically as per my knowledge in the same.

As per Mr.B.S.Yediyurappa horary chart I found nearly 34% is in his favor means 79 seats out of 224 seats. His winning chances though have tough fight with the one of Ex-CM S.Bangarappa (I have predicted his fall on 11th November 1992)but will with very little margin of votes.

Since 2004 Karnataka is under control of Mr.H.D.Devegowda due to powerful Kalpadruma as well as Akhandasamrajya yoga, it will be till 2009 September 29th which can not be ruled out.

On 10th May nearly 75% is favor and on 16th 25% favor and on 22nd May 100% favor ,but on 25th May Mr.Gowda having 25% favor denotes 56 seats out of 224.But, total favor comes to 121 seats denotes Congress will gain 65 seats and will farm the government.

Astrologers predictions may fail butt not astrology is of my opinion and astrological predictions fails because of bad periods of astrologers only.

I do not like to predict on political aspects but out of curiosity I predict on this issue. Every natal/horary chart is an examination paper for an astrologer whether he is amateur or scholor.Neither I will not be happy for my accurate predictions nor I will be sad if it fails.

Mr.Merajuddheen Patel has bright chances to become Chief Minister of Karnataka than Mr.H.D.Kumaraswaamy or Mr.B.S.Yediyurappa.

more than rajdeep, sagarika a bit**ch seems to be biased towards congress. see the recent banglore vs karntaka video on cnnibn website..see her praising congress. worst channel ever.

harishshenoy said,

in May 5th, 2008 at 8:27 am

Bjp is a clear winner in karnataka and may inch towards majority likely to bag around 105-110 seats.

Ramdev said,

in May 6th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

Yeddyurrappa seems to be a patient, soft-spoken politician. He has good ideas as clearly articulated in his website http://www.vijayeekarnataka.com
The BJP surely has wave for it and infact this wave is strengthened with every election is Karnataka. There should be no problem for a superb BJP victory, even a Landslide victory.

Arvind said,

in May 7th, 2008 at 9:23 am

we have to vote BJP it’s our duty, as an INDIAN. No doubt Non BJP Can’t Form Govt.. let all of us do campaign for BJP…

JAI HIND

KOLAR said,

in May 7th, 2008 at 9:26 am

BJP is the next Ruler of Karnataka…

all the best..

Please do vote BJP..

musafir said,

in May 8th, 2008 at 7:08 am

the basic fact of this karnataka elections is that there is going to be a direct fight between the congress and the BJP.The reason is simple jd(s)has lost steam and its leader devegowda knows it therefore he is planning to consolidate his strength by winning atleast 20 to 30seats so that he can play a crucial role in the ministry making.congress on the other hand is trying to consolidate the backwardclass,dalit,kuruba and the minority vote and looks like succeeding to a great extent.the reasons are very simple congress is very tacitly projecting kharge who is the state president as CM candidate.It has also succeeded in keeping Siddaramiah in good humour by accomodating all his close followers thereby ensuring that kuruba vote is not divided.the minorities are likely to vote in a manner that its vote should not weaken the secular parties.the question therefore is which among the two parties will be the single largest party?by getting lingayat vote consolidated in its favour theBJP has lost any hope of garnering vokkaliga orbackward class votes who are bittery opposed to lingayats coming to power with a lingayat chief minister.even assuming BJP will succeed in becoming single largest party its dream of making the government on its own will not fructify as its not going to get absolute majority.Hence my considered opinion is that it will either be a congress government or a coalition of congress and some other secular party/parties

Avinash.M.Patil said,

in May 8th, 2008 at 12:36 pm

I think Congress ll form d govt in Karnataka. We should vote against 2 BJP, coz they r communal .
Plz vote against BJP

raj said,

in May 9th, 2008 at 8:11 am

VOTE FOR BJP!!!!!!

rakchd81 said,

in May 10th, 2008 at 4:54 pm

Congress is a real communal party of india…they agreed for division on india -pak on religion basis to Mountbatten….gave idea of divinding inida on language basis in 1956….divided…hindia speaking area(himanchal) from punjabi speaking (punjab)….also plays communal card..ignites fire….We all should understand congress wants to rule..how come sonia ghandi has 10,000 crores in her account in italy….VOTE OUT CONGRESS…………VOTE FOR BJP if you want to save india

kishoran said,

in May 10th, 2008 at 10:39 pm

Hay guys ,Though Rajdeep’s survay fails he will be having all sorts of interpretations to defend himself.
and about ultra secular guys supporting congress will be supporting rajdeep’s stupid interpretations.
and Castists will be speaking about lingayath,vakkaliga language as headless rajdeep interprits
Bihar Yadav’s didnot vote for lallu Yadav
Gujatath Patels did not vote Keshubai Patel
YOU FcukING Rajdeep dont be a medeval fcuker
treate individual as individual not as group based on caste ,religion
YOU have FAILED in GUJARATH we know YOU WILL BE IN KARNATAKA

NARESH said,

in May 20th, 2008 at 6:47 am

India is secular vote for congress BJP,BSP,SP,SS, name n number of parties all are bharat todo parties with emotional links to religion, caste, creed the only Ek Hindustan party is congress so let’s keep India united and progress towards world’s super power, instead of bragging of Hindu, muslim, lingayat, marathi, tamil, SC/ST,etc.

Rad said,

in May 20th, 2008 at 5:31 pm

I think karnataka people should vote for BJP, let us see the results….

Kris.

amith said,

in May 21st, 2008 at 1:40 am

vote bjp SAVE THIS NATION !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

suresh said,

in May 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 am

its once again a poor vision of survey in karnataka election by mr rajdeep sardesai as he knows what happened in gujrath. better luck in next election prediction to mr RS. u know that BJP will form the govt in kar with thumping majority.
BJP ZINDABAD
BHARATH MATA KI JAI

Sharat said,

in May 26th, 2008 at 6:38 am

Cat is out of the bag….BJP has now won the Karnatka elections…..

CNN-iBN is trying to make amends by saying that their EXIT Polls went horribly wrong…..

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in October 12th, 2008 at 2:25 pm

Obama will become president of US as per libra month ‘s jupiter benefic dots for the 5th house , hence he will get 57.1% vote in his favor.
Mr.Manmohan singh will take oath as PM of India on 16th May May 2009 for the second term with 272 seats majority seats.As per Horary chart and as per Aries – Taurus Month chart Jupiter benefic dots for the 11th house.
Sahhasra Saagara

1. There is a strong fear in every middle and
lower classperson about security on Job,
Economy and Country.

2. In past five years Congress couldn’t
improve economicalsituation of our
country,couldn’t control prices of essential
commodities.
3. Our relationship with neighbouring countries
was deteriorated.
4. Congress are ignoring major problems faced
by our country and are more focussed on Vote
bank.
5.IBN pre poll analysis is just another
publicity from Congress Party.
6.CNN IBN always is in favour of Congress
party and does like to misinterpret public’s
opinion and turn it in favour of Congress.

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in May 23rd, 2009 at 1:58 am

Neither CNN IBN nor any others in favor of Congress, it is pre-destined by Lord Brahma. I have had foreseen the same 6 months back and predicted the same in the same block, thus:-
Sahhasra Saagara said,in October 12th, 2008 at 2:25 pm Obama will become president of US as per libra month ’s jupiter benefic dots for the 5th house , hence he will get 57.1% vote in his favor.
Mr.Manmohan singh will take oath as PM of India on 16th May May 2009 for the second term with 272 seats majority seats.As per Horary chart and as per Aries – Taurus Month chart Jupiter benefic dots for the 11th house.
Sahhasra Saagara”Brahmaanda”

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in May 23rd, 2009 at 2:17 am

HI
Rahul Gandhi will become Prime Minister of India around 22nd April 2010/13th June 2010.
Dr.Manmohan Singh will face heart ailment around 22nd April 2010.
Sahhasra Saagara”Brahmaanda”

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in May 25th, 2009 at 11:23 am

Hi
Rahul Gandhi will become Prime Minister of India on 3rd June 2010 wgich can not be ryled out.
Sahhasra Saagara”Brahmanda”

Sahhasra Saagara said,

in May 25th, 2009 at 11:24 am

Hi
Rahul Gandhi will become Prime Minister of India on 3rd June 2010 which can not be ruled out.
Sahhasra Saagara”Brahmanda”

Jupiter contributed 4 benefic dots for the 11th house of Parliament, hence UPA will be able to secure 50% i.e., 272 the magic number out of 543 for farming the Government in Taurus month as per my knowledge.

sahhasra saagara brahmaanda said,

in July 4th, 2009 at 2:12 pm

Fate is predestined and no one can change or alter it , even the creator lord Brahma.
Between 22nd April 2010 and 13th June 2010 Dr.Manmohan singh will face some major heart ailment resulted in Rahul Gandhi’s Active/full pledge Prime Minister , mostly on 3rd June 2010 will be the day of Rahul Gandhi i feel astrologically.
Sahhasra Saagara Brahmaanda

Leave A Reply

Username (*required)

Email Address (*private)

Website (*optional)

Advertisements

BloggerNews On The Air

We are pleased to announce our latest endeavor, Blogger News is now sponsoring some radio shows on Blog Talk Radio. You can check our full schedule, and listen to previous broadcasts here, and we hope that you will join us on the air in this new venture.