Igor Strelkov on the military situation in the Donbas

If anyone remembers, back in late 2014, I predicted that the mongrel-kolenochnom and utterly unpromising "Minsk format" war will turn into a microscopic similarity of "First World" - a meaningless sluggish (but still bloody) positional tyagomotina, the main consequence which will fall enthusiasm VSN (militia) and its gradual demoralization. As the population. Besides, I had already thought that the result of "ostrich" policy of the Kremlin, who intended to jump first "Marsh", and then frightened own courage and helplessly stuck in the quagmire will be rapid degradation of the entire socio-ekonomcheskoy and (as a consequence) the political system. Which, moreover, will be accompanied by "striving to zero" "His Majesty's rating" of GDP, followed by the negative (not only for power but also for the country, unfortunately) consequences. All these processes have on the face, and are not far from completion.Created by "regular body" (sly become "people's militia") are in the process of decomposition. Between senior officers and the "lower ranks" there is an abyss, similar in size and mutual distrust exactly to the 1917-th year. That is, when the opportunity (for example - in the case of military defeat), most arrogant, cowardly and thieving "military experts", as well as home-grown "heroes" willing pick up on bayonets. And, in fact, quite rightly so. However, they are well aware of the situation (as ukry) and preparing for the "evacuation" without replacement by the end of the coming summer. I really do not think that such an "evacuation" in general can take place without the carnage ... And another massacre, according to some estimates, could begin as early as this month. But here I can not write even a part of what I know. Yes, and "guarantee" can not be given. Therefore, "we will see." Others, unfortunately, now I can not do anything.

Since both sides are rigidly tied to political games "partners" (in which each "partner" is trying to deceive each other and knows it), then the hostilities have the character of "push-pushing". The failure of the "Minsk" is already clear to all (except, perhaps, Putin, who "are afraid to report" about this trouble, because he foolishly took full responsibility for that, "the process"). But as yet there is still hope that the Donbass will pass them without a fight (under pressure from "higher-level partners") in Kiev, as a general attack is fraught with direct intervention of the Russian Armed Forces, the strong attack, they do not go. Especially that last treacherous statements Peskov, ridiculously obscure answers Lavrov and frankly defeatist suggestions Kudrin - contribute to this kind of hopes.However, under the benevolent supervision of the spies of the OSCE (in fact - their allies), the emphasis is not noticing the Ukrainian side no violations, APU virtually eliminated the "gray zone" across the front line. Ukrainian troops moved forward throughout a distance of a mile and a half (in some places - and more), occupying the entire "neytralku" and entering into direct contact with VSN, where it did not exist before.In late May, the shelling positions of the BCH and the settlements have increased dramatically. At points the traditionally tough confrontation (Yasinovataya-Avdeevka, district Dokuchaevsk) were reconnaissance and attempts to attack local forces to a platoon, with the support of armored vehicles.For its part, the units "buildings" and other armed groups DNR (on the front of the LC are much more static and calm the situation) in the last week, too, sometimes "show teeth" - Ukrainian military "moved the" about 1 kilometer to the village Zaytsevo (back position, with which the militia was ousted about three months ago). In Yasinovataya area occupied by the old-Avdeevka. Most brazenly located and annoying battery ukrov affected by counter-battery fire.Serious value of all the purely tactical successes (and with that, and on the other hand) has not. All it is clear that only a decisive battle is able to "dot the i", instead of bloody clashes for some debris and waste heaps. And the inevitability of this battle is also clear to everyone (except, perhaps, those immoral degradantov as General Lenz, and he is most likely just pretends to for career reasons).To delay the battle the two sides can even indefinitely. But accumulated and the weight problems that can not solve such a "strange war", and they must be solved. In political terms - Kiev and Moscow are both in a deadlock (which is always the case with those who have the stupidity to get into the game, moderated USA). Russia can not pass the Donbass without risking serious loosening still looks slim political stability. But sanctions and the general economic downturn pushed our "ylitku" to surrender.In Kiev, the situation is not better - prolonged "semi-war" is very expensive, and the APU, reaching "peak" in its military-technical growth, will soon begin again, "get out of shape" - simply due to wear something like reconstituted and delivered into service nonrenewable heavy weapons (that is the fact that Ukraine itself does not produce or can not produce). Massed deliveries of western military equipment yet. And even if it will - the upgrading and retraining the army tightened (in Ukrainian conditions) for a few years. And they have no stupid Poroshenko - Ukraine is not just a "bust" - the country is heading into the abyss of all socio-economic parameters. Yes, and the moral and political state of the army - is not much better than the "cabinet" LDNR and tends to further degradation. For Kiev Donbass return (or at least a new round of so-called "Russian aggression") - this is another "doping" - the ability to jump out of a tactical stalemate. Though not for long. About the same strategy in general, and do not have to think ... it is irreducibly ideally-flops in the framework of the "European choice". In general - it is necessary for something to be solved.In recent days, received information on the resumption of the mobilization measures, about the transfer closer to the front of the hospital and other military logistical facilities necessary for large operations. At the same time it continues to strengthen the previously appointed and newly occupied positions. Strongly training aircraft."Charged gun" hanging on "stage" for too long. And both sides simply can not be tempted to "defuse them at last." Just because they are tired of these terrible and very uncomfortable to deeply hedonists civilian objects. Dangerous to the same. Plus - on both sides "domoklovym sword" hanging over his head problems retaining power, the retention of which are inextricably linked and their personal destinies. And besides, "comma" in the "war can not surrender" is not checked neither Putin nor Poroshenko. And to put it is necessary.Perhaps very soon it will happen. I still do not think that Putin will dare to surrender - is fraught with too personal a decision for him. In Poroshenko, the situation is slightly different, but (I think), his "puppeteers" from overseas may well admit defeat - when they defeat of APUs in the Donbas is nothing, in general, do not lose.It is clear already that liberate Kiev Putin and his team did not even dream of. And to lose a piece of territory, finally drove "insults and humiliation" Ukraine in their camp as loony mercenary - it is quite satisfied with them. Relatively speaking - pendosam still deeply - someone who will beat - just to win one of the parties was not final and decisive.