NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150526
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located nearly 100 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.
An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day
or two. Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of the week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...
As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 15
the center of Humberto was located near 28.3, -77.7
with movement NNW at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
000
WTNT34 KNHC 150855
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
24 hours. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Humberto is
forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later today.
RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:
The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeast coast of the United States from from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
000
WTNT44 KNHC 150856
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
Since reconnaissance aircraft departed the storm after midnight, the
overall cloud pattern of Humberto has not changed appreciably. Both
the earlier aircraft data and a blend of the most recent subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt. While there is significant banding
evident over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation,
the cyclone has not be able to maintain convection over the center,
likely due to some mid-level dry air that has wrapped around the
southwestern and southern part of the system. As Humberto moves
slowly northward today, it will be over warm water and generally
within low vertical wind shear. This should allow for
strengthening, and the NHC foreast continues to calls for Humberto
to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional
strengthening is likely after that time when the storm recurves and
remains within favorable environmental conditions. Late in the
period, Humberto is forecast to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough, and increasing shear ahead of that system is
likely to cause weakening. This interaction should also begin
Humberto's transition to an extratropical cyclone. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.
Humberto continues to be steered north-northwestward at about 6 kt
by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The tropical storm
should turn northward and slow down later today as a weakness
develops in the ridge. On Monday, a broad trough over the the
northeastern United States is expected to turn Humberto
northeastward, and then east-northeastward away from the United
States. The dynamical models remain in good agreement on the
overall track forecast scenario but there are some differences in
the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.
The latest NHC track is similar to, but a little slower than, the
previous advisory. The new track forecast is closest to the
multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences
among the guidance.
Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 28.3N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 30.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 31.3N 71.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown

Local weather forecast, advisories, radar, and live conditions for Greer, South Carolina in Greenville County Upstate South Carolina.

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