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Sunday, September 9, 2018

The overall UNL-ranking will be compiled after completion of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019. This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 in Dublin for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two of each group qualify for EURO 2020.After that qualifying phase 16 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2020, will have another chance to gain one of the last 4 qualifying berths for EURO 2020 via play-offs, to be played in March 2020. The 16 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the overall UNL-ranking.Teams will be ordered in this UNL-ranking by:

league

position in the group

points

goal-difference

goals scored

away goals scored

number of wins

number of away wins

fair-play

UEFA NT-coefficient

Notes:- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four in June 2019;- in league C the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group; the ranking of the group numbers 4 will be based on all group matches.Here are the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.

team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Belgium

98,15

1,85

0

0

0

0

France

96,38

3,62

0

0

0

0

Portugal

92,59

7,41

0

0

0

0

Spain

91,36

8,64

0

0

0

0

Italy

88,54

11,46

0

0

0

0

Croatia

85,63

14,37

0

0

0

0

Switzerland

86,69

13,31

0

0

0

0

Germany

81,32

18,68

0

0

0

0

England

81,12

18,88

0

0

0

0

Netherlands

71,84

28,16

0

0

0

0

Poland

72,83

27,17

0

0

0

0

Iceland

53,55

46,45

0

0

0

0

Sweden

0

83,16

16,84

0

0

0

Denmark

0

82,48

17,52

0

0

0

Austria

0

72,64

27,36

0

0

0

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

70,97

29,03

0

0

0

Slovakia

0

69,95

30,05

0

0

0

Ukraine

0

67,96

32,04

0

0

0

Wales

0

63,42

36,58

0

0

0

Czech Republic

0

62,09

37,91

0

0

0

Turkey

0

58,61

41,39

0

0

0

Northern Ireland

0

56,39

43,61

0

0

0

Russia

0

58,23

41,77

0

0

0

Republic of Ireland

0

54,10

45,90

0

0

0

Scotland

0

0

74,25

25,75

0

0

Serbia

0

0

65,78

34,22

0

0

Romania

0

0

54,37

45,63

0

0

Norway

0

0

49,76

50,24

0

0

Greece

0

0

49,99

50,01

0

0

Slovenia

0

0

46,30

53,70

0

0

Albania

0

0

41,80

58,20

0

0

Bulgaria

0

0

43,18

56,82

0

0

Finland

0

0

41,71

58,29

0

0

Israel

0

0

34,99

65,01

0

0

Hungary

0

0

35,66

64,34

0

0

Montenegro

0

0

26,76

73,24

0

0

Estonia

0

0

20,37

79,63

0

0

Cyprus

0

0

10,63

89,37

0

0

Lithuania

0

0

4,45

95,55

0

0

Belarus

0

0

0

23,70

75,29

1,01

FYR Macedonia

0

0

0

21,06

76,51

2,43

Georgia

0

0

0

14,34

81,88

3,78

Armenia

0

0

0

11,80

83,22

4,98

Kosovo

0

0

0

6,26

81,26

12,48

Luxembourg

0

0

0

4,81

87,29

7,90

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

4,85

77,43

17,72

Moldova

0

0

0

4,20

86,54

9,26

Kazakhstan

0

0

0

4,13

81,82

14,05

Latvia

0

0

0

2,96

79,71

17,33

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

1,25

63,84

34,91

Malta

0

0

0

0,36

43,40

56,24

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0,20

37,68

62,12

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0,05

27,24

72,71

Andorra

0

0

0

0,03

14,00

85,97

San Marino

0

0

0

0,00

2,89

97,11

And the seeding pots with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position. The leagues are indicated by the dotted lines.pot 1

Belgium

3,62

France

4,03

Portugal

5,44

Spain

5,55

Italy

6,34

Croatia

6,61

Switzerland

6,66

Germany

7,05

England

7,16

Netherlands

8,04

pot 2

Poland

8,07

Iceland

9,43

-----------------------------------------

Sweden

16,82

Denmark

16,86

Austria

18,06

Bosnia-Herzegovina

18,12

Slovakia

18,24

Ukraine

18,33

Wales

18,91

Czech Republic

18,95

pot 3

Turkey

19,30

Northern Ireland

19,32

Russia

19,38

Republic of Ireland

19,72

-----------------------------------------

Scotland

28,45

Serbia

29,38

Romania

30,39

Norway

30,90

Greece

30,92

Slovenia

31,25

pot 4

Albania

31,25

Bulgaria

31,50

Finland

31,71

Israel

31,81

Hungary

32,38

Montenegro

33,00

Estonia

34,30

Cyprus

35,76

Lithuania

36,98

-----------------------------------------

Belarus

43,03

pot 5

FYR Macedonia

43,24

Georgia

44,01

Armenia

44,37

Kosovo

45,54

Luxembourg

46,12

Azerbaijan

46,27

Moldova

46,40

Kazakhstan

46,42

Latvia

46,93

Faroe Islands

48,34

pot 6

Malta

50,16

Liechtenstein

50,80

Gibraltar

51,54

Andorra

52,69

San Marino

54,15

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

Apologies if this is a stupid question but something with the Nations League has been on my mind lately and this is the best place I can think to ask.

Is there any advantage to being in a 4 team group or a 3 team group in League C? Something in the back of my head says, even though the results against the 4th team are removed it doesn't completely balance things out, but I can't think why anyone would gain this hypothetical advantage. Something to do with the 4th seeds in the four team groups not necessarily finishing bottom and this changing things in some way.

I could be talking complete rubbish but have you ever noticed anything in the probabilities showing an advantage one way or another in the rankings?

For a good team 4 team group may in theory make the probabilty of finishing as group winner higher, since it means more matches, therefor less variance.In practice the 4th team is not weak enough so it will almost always be better to be in a 3 team group.