Snowfall to determine if Great Lakes can begin recovery

Conditions during the next few months will go a long way in determining whether near record low Great Lakes levels begin the recovery process.

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By Mark Spencley

Cheboygan Daily Tribune - Cheboygan, MI

By Mark Spencley

Posted Dec. 10, 2012 at 10:14 PM

By Mark Spencley

Posted Dec. 10, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Cheboygan

Conditions during the next few months will go a long way in determining whether near record low Great Lakes levels begin the recovery process.

The factors that influence lake levels are many, but it boils down to a simple equation: water inflow versus water outflow. Winter is a critical period in this process.

Precipitation and evaporation are the chief players in water level fluctuations, making climate a critical component. Precipitation adds water to the lakes, while evaporation extracts it. On bodies of water as large as the Great Lakes, it takes time for these factors to become noticeable. Unfortunately, nature has been working against lake levels.

“The Great Lakes are especially influenced by winter,” explained Jennifer McKay, policy specialist for the Tip of the Mitt Watershed Council. “When we get cold winters and more ice covers the lakes, we have less evaporation. Recently we’ve experience warmer temperatures and less ice, allowing more water to evaporate.”

Along with the warmer temperatures, snowfall has been down for several winters. Less snowpack means less spring runoff, another contributing factor to low lake levels.

“If we were to see a very similar winter to what we did last winter I would say the potential is very real for a record low in the next six months,” said Keith Kompoltowicz, chief of watershed hydrology with the Detroit branch of the United States Army Corps of Engineers.

The low lake levels drew significant attention over the summer, but this isn’t the first time lake levels have dropped.

Climate is historically fickle, ebbing and flowing along a cyclical curve.

Water levels follows suit. Great Lakes levels have fluctuated since first being recorded in the 1890s.

In the 1980s water levels were so high lakefront homeowners were being forced from their homes. Now, 30 years later, the opposite is occurring, homeowners are alarmed by the distance from their porches to the shoreline.

“It’s cyclical,” McKay noted. “You can look and maps and graphs from the 1890s to now and see how the lake levels have fluctuated. Historically, lake levels have always rebounded. We’ve seen levels lower than this in the past. Not much, but lower.”

The weather this winter could jumpstart that rebounding process. More cold and snow are expected this year than in the past few winters, which could limit evaporation and add to the spring runoff, attacking the problem at both fronts, inflow and outflow.

“We’re expecting this to be a more normal winter, a little colder with more snow,” said Nick Schwartz, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord.

If this forecast proves correct, it would be good news for those concerned with the retracting shorelines.