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Thursday, August 03, 2017

It's not only a great show on Netflix, it's a good summary of the past year REGARDLESS of your political leanings.

Many thanks to those of you who continue to visit and comment. I don't have any plans to return, but I will give a free plug to Kernan at TRADEthemove.com. He's posted some good charts you can view for free (click on "Charts"), and his Dow prediction was on the money. I think we'll soon see an end to the rally that started when Trump was elected last year.

Monday, February 16, 2015

"This blog still gets a fair number of visitors every month, which is why I leave it up. Even though the charts are a few years old, the strategies are still just as applicable. They worked long before I came along, and they will work long after I am gone.

That is the good thing about understanding price movement and technical analysis - it works a lot better than chasing new stuff and bouncing around from method to method."I went on to analyze the Nasdaq chart and said:"If price can take out the March high, it should move to the 38.2% extension of the February 5 to the March 7 up move* (which would be approximately 4,534)."Looking back, you can see that price made a run at 4,534 in July, but it hit resistance at the 4,500 level (as price tends to do at whole numbers). It made another attempt and failed, but both times it pulled back to support at the March high and bounced (previous resistance was now support...as tends to happen).At the beginning of September, it finally broke through 4,500 and hit my target (actually, it exceeded my target by around 60 points). Price then promptly collapsed, falling back to the 4,214 mark. What was the significance of 4,214? It was the 61.8% retracement of the April low to the most recent high (it actually exceeded the 61.8% retracement by 14 points...so, ALMOST exact!)My point? This stuff works - it always has, it always will. That's why I leave this blog up. Price now sits just above the 38.2% extension of the up move from April to September 2014. Make of that what you will...See you in another year or so. Take care!

Friday, June 13, 2014

This blog still gets a fair number of visitors every month, which is why I leave it up. Even though the charts are a few years old, the strategies are still just as applicable. They worked long before I came along, and they will work long after I am gone.

That is the good thing about understanding price movement and technical analysis - it works a lot better than chasing new stuff and bouncing around from method to method.

If you look at the chart of the Nasdaq over the past year, you can see many of the patterns I highlight over the years of posts here. The move from July 13 through the beginning of this year was textbook, with multiple pullbacks to the retracement zone, bounces, and continuations to the Fibonacci extensions (you can easily spot three well-defined patterns on the daily chart).

We are in an interesting place now with price having retraced 100% of the up move from February 5 to March 7. It bounced off that February 5th low (on April 15th), and moved back up towards the previous March high; it currently sits just below that level.

Note the gap from the close of trading on May 23rd to the open on May 27th (the 26th was a holiday) - it coincides perfectly with the retracement zone, and the gap jumped above (or over) the 50% mark. If price can take out the March high, it should move to the 38.2% extension of the February 5 to the March 7 up move* (which would be approximately 4534).

I hope everyone is doing well out there!

*this move is setting up just like the previous up move from December 18 to January 22. You can see that price did almost the same thing there - it retraced 100%, bounced off that December low, and went on to break the January high and move to the 38.2% extension before pulling back.

Monday, June 04, 2012

It looks like my downside Facebook target is getting closer - just a dollar shy at today's low!

As June arrives, I am going to take some time off to travel, enjoy the sun, and take care of some family matters. I might be back later this summer (or, I might just disappear) - check back or subscribe to the feed (top of the page "Subscribe to the Trader-X blog") to be notified when posting resumes.

Finally, I've been telling my readers about "The T.A.D. Principle" for years (see my first post on it almost 10 years ago). I just finished reading the new version they released (now called "the meditationSHIFT course"), and I can't recommend it enough.

It is on a completely different level from the previous versions, and represents an exploration of the things we do that make us unhappy, and what we need to do to find happiness in ourselves as opposed to looking for it externally. If you want to understand your mind, how compulsive it is, the challenges it creates in your life, and how to deal with them, you need to do it. It is a 21-day course, and it is well-structured and insightful.

If you purchased in the past, you get this new version free (that's the other good thing about them - they never charge you for their updates). If you have never explored "tad" or meditationSHIFT, I highly recommend you do. It could have a big impact on your life, and it is well worth the effort.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

"CIEN, 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the opening range. Price chopped around the retracement zone and then formed a nice hammer on top of it at 11:45, with support from the 5EMA. I exited at the Fibonacci extension, and re-entered on a break of the 1:30 hammer bar for a "beyond the Fibonacci extension" setup. I exited at $13.50 for a nice gain."

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Since there is a lot of talk in comments about FB, I thought it would be interesting to look at the action of the first 8 days.

If you plot Fibonacci lines over the first and second day, you can see that - after the short-lived bounce on day 2 - price gapped down below the low and then tested that low as resistance multiple times over days 3-6. It then started a three day move down that culminated with price nailing the Fibonacci extension and breaking below it late today.

I offer no predictions, but it seems to be at a decisive point here. It can either form a "Beyond the Fibonacci extension" setup and move down to the $24-$25 range, or it can retake the 100EMA with the potential to make it back to the retracement zone.

Tomorrow will be interesting to watch. All in all, I'm glad I avoided the Facebook hype!

Friday, May 18, 2012

"Shorted LBTYA on a break of the 13th bar. It was a nice pattern that gapped down, pulled back, and then broke back through the previous low of the morning. The trigger bar closed below the morning low, had a long upper tail, and resistance from the 8EMA. Covered at the Fibonacci extension at the end of the day. 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first 30-minutes range."

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Any bets on what it will open at, or the high of the first 30 minutes of trading? Closest answer gets the satisfaction of being the closest answer! Read the article here.

There have been a lot of good trades and discussion in the "comments" of the last few posts - I have not had time to cull through them and post charts, but I'll try to get a few up tomorrow or Saturday.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Very insightful comments over the past few days - a lot of good trades and analysis, so check them out.

Here is a trade from Brian:

"Started the week out with a nice trade. GRPN, 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the opening range. Price pulled back to the 61.8% line which was a little deep, but it recovered and I entered on a break of the 14th bar when it crossed back above the 38.2% line. It had support from the 5 and 8EMAs, and I rode it to $12 where it stalled out."

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Thank you to everyone posting trades and analysis in comments. Just a reminder, please include the symbol, the day of the trade, the timeframe, where you plotted your Fibonacci lines (if applicable), indicators used (for example, moving averages, candlestick patterns, trendlines), where your entry was ("a break of the X bar high/low") and where your exited. And, of course, your reasons for taking the trade as well as any comments or questions.

I've had to omit some comments recently because they lacked a lot of this information, making it impossible for anyone to reference the proper chart.

Thanks, and I'll try to highlight some trades from comments tomorrow or Friday.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

In the comments of the previous post, there is good analysis of trades in the following ADM chart, including discussion on targets, when to exit, and second entries. There are also many additional trades discussed - I will let you pull those charts up on your own.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

I'm taking time off to enjoy the Spring. Here is a trade from Chris, and I'll see you guys (maybe) next week!

"BHI was a gap up. 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first three bars opening range. I didn't like the high tail on the third bar, but the trigger bar (5th bar) filled it in as it was a strong, green bar. I entered on a break of that bar's high and exited at the Fibonacci extension. What I call a classic X trade, though it may not meet your strict definition."

Sunday, April 22, 2012

As noted in the previous post, I am taking a few days off to enjoy Spring so I am behind on looking through comments. Here is a trade and question from Dan on Thursday:

"I traded EBAY on a 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first three bars. I entered on a break of the third bar high, and sold at the Fibonacci extension. The only red flag was the bar was a bit far away from the 5 and 8EMAs, so I am not sure if that meant most would pass on it. The price action of the first three bars was strong, though, so I thought the risk worthwhile. I appreciate any feedback."

DISCLAIMER - I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES; I JUST POST MY THOUGHTS, TRADES, AND OPINIONS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS. ALL CHARTS ARE COURTESY OF REALTICK. ALL TIMES INDICATED ARE NY (EST).