SpaceX Dragon to the ISS

How much of the upcoming SpaceX Dragon mission to the ISS will be successful?Poll ended at Fri May 18, 2012 10:34 am

Launch failure, F9/Dragon never reaches orbit

0%

[ 0 ]

Launch successful, some issue during checkout prevents Dragon from attempting to berth with ISS

0%

[ 0 ]

Dragon attempts to berth with ISS but fails

6%

[ 1 ]

Dragon successfully berths with ISS, but has to undock early due to some unforeseen problem

0%

[ 0 ]

Dragon successfully completes ISS visit, but fails to return to Earth in one piece or is not recovered successfully

6%

[ 1 ]

Mission is a complete success

56%

[ 9 ]

After reaching orbit successfully, Dragon broadcasts the cryptic message "Screw you guys, I'm outta here" and autonomously fires its Draco thrusters to enter a Mars transfer orbit, never to be heard of again until humanity reaches Mars in person in 2042

So, the second SpaceX Dragon mission is coming up on April 30th, this time an attempt to deliver some cargo to the ISS. But will it work? Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets!

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Last edited by Lourens on Wed May 16, 2012 7:26 pm, edited 5 times in total.

Ok, serious: I'm not really sure how things will work out. If I remember correctly, I was right in predicting the success of COTS1. But this time there is so much new electronics stuff on board of dragon that could cause problems. As a software engineer myself I know that if software can go wrong, it almost always will go wrong

Most of the like 6 months or so of delays of COTS2/3 are supposedly because of extensive software in the loop testing, so I guess SpaceX did do their homework well, but it still is a complex system that is not yet flight proven (in the complete constellation with trunk, computers, solar arrays, etc..).

So my guess is a ~60% to 70% chance of complete success and I think that problems would most likely occur after launch in the "early operations phase" while checking out the dragon. If dragon works as intended, then I'm highly confident, that approach and berthing will go (almost) as planned.

I really don't know how much of the in orbit testing was done on the last Dragon flight, so difficult to judge. Did they test manoeuvring? What other tests required for this flight was already done on the previous flight?

Makes the vote difficult to judge. But I've gone with fails to berth. If it does succeed to berth, then I reckon everything else will go to plan.

I think they are going to make it, perhaps some minor glitches, but I think they will complete the mission.

They seem to be getting better and better and really learning from their previous launches, so I think the odds are in their favor. However this is actually rocket science and they are still the new people and even the experienced guys makes mistakes, so I guess we will have to wait and see if they actually pull it off, I'm planning on watching the launch with a few friends over the net, does anyone know where to stream it from? The more sources, the better.

I've extended the poll deadline to May 3rd now, and will keep extending it as the launch date slips. Re-voting is now also enabled, so you can change your opinion if you're losing or gaining faith.

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Vote for complete mission success. Going out on a limb as software has proven to be the achillies heel for many ventures not just space, but, SpaceX have delayed quite a bit for this aspect of the mission and Elon has said they won't fly until ready. Presumably May 7th is 'ready' at this point.

I've shortened the voting window by a day (can't do it any more specifically) so that it ends before launch. So, if you want to put in your vote, or change it, do it soon!

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Awwww. No go! Well, that's what that hold-down feature is for I suppose. We've seen on previous launches that it can be somewhat finicky and conservative, but that's probably a good thing. Wonder what they'll find that triggered it...

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus