April 10, 2017

StormTALK! Monday Edition

DISCUSSION:Fronts, fronts and more fronts. That is the focus of our weather pattern over the next 7 days.

We start with a cold front that will arrive by sunrise tomorrow.We will enjoy the warmth and sunshine today ahead of it. The gusty winds/low humidity will lead to an elevated fire danger. Keep that in mind. Highs in the lower 80s.The thunderstorm chance kicks in after midnight across our NW counties. A few gusty t-storms possible, but severe risk is quite low due to the overnight timing and dry air this front will battle. The showers from this activity will work their way to the southeast through the AM commute on Tuesday. There are growing signs that the cold front may really struggle to push through Kentucky on Tuesday. Perhaps even into Wednesday. The longer it sticks around, the longer the rain chances will have to stay in the forecast for the risk of isolated showers or a t-storm. Again, severe risk very low to basically non-existent due to weak wind fields and low instability by this point.

We have Wednesday quiet/sunny for now. But we will trend that Tuesday front carefully for any changes that may come to the Wednesday outlook.

Either way, that very same cold front will transform into a warm front as it reverses direction. This will mean another slow crawl northward through the end of the week. Isolated t-storms will have to remain in the forecast to account for this. However, there will be many dry period with lots of warmth (70s/few 80s).

Holiday weekend:The warm front should push into the northern Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon. This will give the rain chance a break. The hope is that we will remain in this "break" through early Easter Sunday. However, there will be a cold front moving in from the NW at the same time. The speed of this front will be key on rainfall timing on Easter. At the moment, it appears the highest rain chance will be in the afternoon/evening period. I would not adjust plans yet until we can get a better handle on that front timing as there is a risk for an earlier arrival as well as a complete delay until next Monday.

Looking down the road:Another decent system arrives around the 19th/20th.

And yet another near Thunder Over Louisville Weekend. Too early to get too specific.