Publication year

The French economy registered growth of 0.0% in 2014Q1 q-o-q, caused by weak consumer spending, poor business investment and declining net exports. We expect these trends to continue and expect therefore a very modest recovery going forward.

Ethiopia continues to record robust growth. However, the state-led development model is con-straining the private sector and has resulted, from time to time, in macroeconomic imbalances, and therefore seems unsustainable in the long term.

Recent data show that the economic recovery remains in place as GDP volume grew 0.4% q-o-q on the back of private consumption and fixed investment. Going forward, the newly to be formed government is likely to pursue more pro-business policy measures.

Our macroeconomic policy is largely based on the theory mainly developed in the post-war years. This also applies to the inflation target of 2% set by the central banks although this target is not strongly empirically founded.

After a rebasing exercise, Nigeria became the largest economy of Africa. However, this does not reduce Nigeria’s large structural issues, and instability and violence could worsen ahead of elections in 2015.

Global economic growth is still weak. Acceleration must come from the industrialised world as emerging markets deal with geopolitical and policy issues. Monetary policy must be tightened in time to prevent ‘bubbles’ and policy inertia.

We expect Dutch GDP volume to grow again this year and next. Business investment will rise thanks to higher exports and improving economic prospects. Only in 2015 will we see a small rise in private consumption, coupled with a modest fall in unemployment.

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Gradually increasing GDP growth in recent quarters and a further improvement of sentiment show that the Spanish recovery is on a solid footing. However, despite this recovery, inflation remains worryingly low.

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

The German economy had a strong start of 2014 growing 0.8% q-o-q. The growth acceleration can partly be attributed to the soft winter that boosted construction activity. Therefore we expect a somewhat lower growth figure for the current quarter.

Economic growth in 14Q1 was slightly disappointing, but Mexico’s economic outlook is improving considerably, as almost all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one –energy- is likely to be approved soon.