Podesta: Tax debate will help Dems – ’12 preview today! Mitt Romney: ‘an administration whose idea of a rogue state is Arizona’ … Pence: ‘Obama is the most pro-abortion president in American history'

NATE “538” SILVER says the GOP’s odds of taking over the Senate dropped from 26% before Delaware to 15% today. http://bit.ly/dfwG7O He wrote last week that the GOP has “a two-in-three chance” of taking the House. http://bit.ly/cUGjge

DRIVING THE DAY: At 1:30 p.m. in the Rose Garden, President Obama is announcing that he will appoint Elizabeth Warren to be an Assistant to the President and Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Later, he’ll name a director, who will face Senate confirmation. White House background: “Warren will play the lead role in setting up the Bureau and ensuring it is as effective as possible. Under the [Wall Street Reform] Act, the Treasury Department has the authority to get the consumer agency up and running, and Warren will serve as Special Advisor to the Secretary of Treasury to guide this effort. Warren will also advise the President on policies and programs that are designed to protect the financial interests of middle class families.”

--From the president’s prepared remarks: “Never again will folks be confused or misled by the pages of barely understandable fine print that you find in agreements for credit cards, mortgages, and student loans. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will also crack down on the abusive practices of unscrupulous mortgage lenders. It will reinforce the new credit card law we passed banning unfair rate hikes, and ensure that folks aren’t unwittingly caught by overdraft fees when they sign up for a checking account. It will give students who take out college loans clear information and make sure lenders don’t cheat the system. And it will ensure that every American receives a free credit score if they are denied a loan or insurance because of that score. Basically, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be a watchdog for the American consumer, charged with enforcing the toughest financial protections in history.”

-- ELIZABETH WARREN, on the White House blog at 6 a.m.: “The new law creates a chance to put a tough cop on the beat and provide real accountability and oversight of the consumer credit market. The time for hiding tricks and traps in the fine print is over. This new bureau is based on the simple idea that if the playing field is level and families can see what’s going on, they will have better tools to make better choices. … It’s time for all of us to pull up our socks and get to work.”

--“ HILLARY CLINTON, WARREN BUFFETT AND WOMEN WHO RULE”: On Oct. 6, at the FORTUNE Most Powerful Women Summit, in Washington for the first time, the Secretary of State will be interviewed by Ann Moore, the chairman and CEO of Time Inc. Elizabeth Warren will also join the week’s program on a panel called "The Enforcers." The other “Enforcers”: FDIC boss Sheila Bair, SEC chairman Mary Schapiro, and Justice Department Antitrust chief Christine Varney. http://bit.ly/cWp9Vc

FIRST LOOK: After branding the extension of the tax cut for the wealthiest the Republican TARP (Tax Assistance for Rich People) earlier THIS week, John Podesta and his Center for American Progress Action Fund are wading deeper into the tax cut debate today with a new memo for Democrats. The memo, which extensively cites new polling and focus groups CAPAF conducted with Stan Greenberg, outlines a focused strategy for Democrats to seize the offensive on taxes and the economy in order to score a major policy win, rev up the base, and connect with middles class voters: “The tax cut debate offers a contrast opportunity … The GOP is fighting for corporations, not small businesses.” 6-page PDF http://politi.co/9c6sHI

SCOOP -- HOUSE "GOP TO ROLL OUT ELECTION AGENDA," by Jake Sherman: "House Republicans are planning to roll out their election agenda over the next two weeks as they seek to take back the House majority, prepping a list of roughly 20 initiatives — including a few that seem driven by the tea party movement. One of the GOP proposals would require bills to have a specific citation of constitutional authority, on the heels of criticism that Democrats breached their constitutional limits in Congress with big-ticket bills like health care reform. If a member questioned whether the House had constitutional authority to pass a bill, that challenge would receive debate and a vote. The second major initiative would encourage — though not require — members of Congress to read bills before they vote. ... [T]he agenda will be unveiled at a press conference off the Capitol grounds." http://bit.ly/dc8Q7K

**A message from McDonald’s: At McDonald's, we believe in good taste. So when we reduced the trans fats in our fries, we wanted to do it right. In the end, we reduced them to 0 grams per serving, while keeping the magic. Which is what we believe fries should always be. **

BIRTHWEEK: Joe Lee (h/t Victoria)

BIRTHDAYS: Courtney O’Donnell … Anthony Coley … Steve Scully … Sandra Abrevaya is 3-0 … White House spokesman Adam Abrams has a lot to celebrate today: His 29th birthday, and his recent engagement to Sarah Pavlus. That was another result of Rahm Emanuel playing cupid while he was DCCC chair (They both worked there in 2006, along with lots of other White House folks.). … Bill Bold, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President of Government Affairs, is celebrating 4-2 in San Diego. …

YOUSEF HAD A BOY! Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., and his wife, Abeer, welcomed their first child, son Omar Yousef Al Otaiba. on Wednesday.

INTRODUCING Finoula Sullivan Scheiber: “Medical science said she'd get here on September 17; the clerk working the graveyard shift at Safeway one night said she was coming the 15th. Looks like it's Safeway dude 1, medical science 0--we welcomed Finoula into the world [Wednesday] afternoon at 4:35. She weighed in at 7 pounds, 1 ounce and was 19.5 inches long. Mom is doing great despite the unintended natural childbirth. (Let's just say it was a closer call getting to the hospital than expected.) Fin, as she is known, is doing great despite our embarrassingly subpar swaddling. Love, Amy and Noam.”

RICHARD STENGEL, TIME managing editor, today will receive the Citizen of the Year Award in D.C., at the National Conference on Citizenship. TIME recently published its fourth annual National Service Issue. www.ncoc.net/conference

PRESIDENT OBAMA, at a DNC event last night in Greenwich, Conn.: “[A]fter being in this job for two years, I have never been more optimistic about America. I am optimistic partly because we did some really tough things that aren’t always popular but were the right things to do. … Democrats, just congenitally, tend to get -- to see the glass as half empty. (Laughter.) If we get an historic health care bill passed -- oh, well, the public option wasn’t there. If you get the financial reform bill passed -- then, well, I don't know about this particularly derivatives rule, I'm not sure that I'm satisfied with that. And gosh, we haven’t yet brought about world peace and -- (laughter.) I thought that was going to happen quicker. (Laughter.) You know who you are. (Laughter.) We have had the most productive, progressive legislative session in at least a generation.” Video http://bit.ly/cxQfZB

-- CLOSING ARGUMENT – TURNING UP THE HEAT: At an earlier reception for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (running for Senate against wrestling magnate Linda McMahon), Obama made some of his strongest remarks to date on the Citizens United campaign-finance court decision, warning of “a corporate takeover of our democracy”: “[T]he groups are benign-sounding: Americans for Prosperity. Who’s against that? (Laughter.) Or Committee for Truth in Politics. Or Americans for Apple Pie. Moms for Motherhood. I made those last two up. (Laughter.)” YouTube http://bit.ly/cxQfZB

NEW ON THE TWITTER: @bwilliams, who has yet to tweet. @katiecouric welcomes him: “Hi @bwilliams! Welcome to @twitter! Looking forward to following you (don't worry, I'm not a stalker) Your pal, Katie.”

2012 – Family Research Council’s FRC Action “Values Voters Summit” opens today at the Omni Shoreham. The winner of the “2012 Presidential Straw Poll” will be announced SATURDAY in the ballroom after Phyllis Schlafly's speech concludes around 2:45 p.m., followed by a news conference at 3:15. Attendance for the summit is nearly 2,000, a little ahead of last year. http://valuesvotersummit.org Livestream, beginning TODAY at 8 a.m. http://bit.ly/9evQEY

EXCLUSIVE -- From prepared remarks:

MITT ROMNEY (speaks for about 20 minutes, beginning at 11:40 a.m.): “Welcome to the Nancy Pelosi-Harry Reid-President Obama farewell party. This has been a pretty tough year for those three—their numbers have gone down the chute faster than a Jet Blue flight attendant. … This President and his fellow-travelers in Congress implemented the most anti-growth, anti-investment, anti-jobs measures we’ve seen in our lifetimes. He called it ambitious. It was reckless. He scared employers, so jobs are scarce. The uncertainty and lack of predictability he created has caused businesses to shrink from spending and from hiring. He hasn’t helped end the crisis, he made it deeper, longer and more painful. We have had government declare war on poverty and a war on drugs, but this is the first time our government has declared war on free enterprise. …

“The White House tries to argue that their stimulus has helped. That’s a bit like saying that squirting water from a garden hose helps put out a forest fire. The question is not whether it helped a little, but rather, did it do the job, or do as well as it could have. And the answer is a resounding “no.” 8% predicted unemployment became 10%. Since the Obama stimulus was passed, 127,000 government jobs have been created, but more than 2.4 million private sector jobs have been lost. In Ohio, more than one in ten people are out of work. In California, the unemployment rate has hovered around 12% for more than a year. There are now nearly 15 million Americans that are out of work: if they stood in a single unemployment line, it would stretch from the coast of California to Washington D.C. and then back again! If that’s their vaunted “recovery summer,” heaven help us from their recovery winter! …

“The President’s foreign policy has not compensated for his failure at home. Under his engagement policy, North Korea has tested nuclear weapons, launched long range missiles, and sunk a South Korean ship. And Iran has funded Yemeni insurgents, armed terrorists, and accelerated its nuclear program. He gave Russians their number one foreign policy objective—abandonment of our Eastern Europe missile defense—and got nothing in return. He insulted Israel at the United Nations and forgot to mention that Hamas has launched thousands of rockets into that country. Our success in Iraq is in spite of his policy preferences and thanks to those of his predecessor, George W. Bush. And his strategy in Afghanistan has been needlessly muddled by announcing a withdrawal date, unfortunately putting domestic politics ahead of national purpose. Yes, we have serious enemies and growing threats around the world. Unfortunately, we have an Administration whose idea of a rogue state is Arizona.

--REP. MIKE PENCE (R-Ind.), chairman of the House Republican Conference (speaks at 11:15 a.m.): “Barack Obama is the most pro-abortion president in American history and his agenda on the family must be opposed. … Those who would have us ignore the battle being fought over life, marriage and religious liberty, have forgotten the lessons of history. America’s darkest moments have come when economic arguments trumped moral principles. … We are at our strongest when fiscal and social conservatives are united. When voices from either camp advocate the removal of the other from the room, we are weakened. Let me be clear on this point: Victory comes when we stand together, fighting arm in arm for fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense and traditional moral values.”

BEHIND THE CURTAIN – “Emanuel, Jackson discuss Chicago mayor's race,” by AP’s Henry C. Jackson: “Rahm Emanuel met privately with Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Wednesday night to discuss the Chicago mayor's race, sources close to Emanuel and Jackson said on Thursday. The meeting is the latest sign that both Jackson and Emanuel are considering entering the race. Both have previously expressed interest in becoming Chicago's mayor. … Jackson [told the Chicago Tribune] Emanuel's candidacy would ‘nationalize’ the race, entangling it in Obama's agenda. … Election rules give candidates until Nov. 22 to file petitions to run. Any candidate would likely need to start laying groundwork well before then. The mayoral election is in February.”

THE PRESIDENT’S DAY, per the White House: “In the morning, the President and the Vice President will receive the Presidential Daily Briefing in the Oval Office. This meeting is closed press. In the afternoon, the President will make an announcement to the press in the Rose Garden. This is open press.”

--THE V.P.’s DAY: “At 10:30 AM, the Vice President will attend the Presidential Daily Briefing. Afterwards, at 11:45 AM, the Vice President will hold a Recovery Act Implementation Cabinet meeting in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. These meetings will be closed press. Later, the Vice President will travel to Wilmington, Delaware, to attend an event with Senatorial candidate Chris Coons.”

TALKER – “Mayor Adrian Fenty wins primary as Republican write-in,” by TBD’s Sarah Larimer: “Early Friday morning, the District of Columbia Board of Elections and Ethics announced that Fenty has won as a write-in candidate for the Republican party, according to unofficial results. He received 822 votes. Fenty has until 4:45 p.m. today to accept the Republican nomination, said BOEE spokeswoman Alysoun McLaughlin. Fenty would have to register as a Republican and submit an affirmation of write-in candidacy. … Fenty has previously dismissed suggestions that he would switch party affiliation in the event of a primary loss.” http://tbd.ly/aGXKJI

THE AGENDA -- “Pelosi hedges on tax cuts,” by Jake Sherman: “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Thursday renewed her pledge to pass an extension of the Bush tax cuts for the middle class, but now she’s leaving the door open to extending the tax cuts for upper-income Americans. … [She] said that the ‘only thing I can tell you is the tax cuts for the middle class will be extended this Congress,’ leaving open the possibility that cuts for people making more than $250,000 could be extended. … 31 members the Democratic caucus — many of them facing stiff headwinds in getting reelected to Congress — are pushing to extend all the tax cuts. Pelosi thinks their logic is flawed. ‘The tax cuts at the high end have not produced any jobs; it only increased the deficit.’” http://bit.ly/dAA07f

HAPPENING THIS MORNING -- MARCH ON WASHINGTON: “NAACP's Benjamin Todd Jealous, NCLR's Janet Murguia and AFT's Randi Weingarten will announce the One Nation Working Together March on Washington on a conference call. Tens of thousands of people from a broad coalition of more than 300 partners will gather at the Lincoln Memorial on 10/2/10 to march for jobs, justice and public education. The coalition is also releasing today the first in a series of public service announcements about the march featuring national leaders like AFL-CIO's Rich Trumka and SEIU's Mary Kay Henry.”

SPORTS BLINK – “Constant Eyes Of Texas” -- ESPN enterprise journalism: “Six days of unprecedented access to the University of Texas football team revealed to ESPN.com senior writer Pat Forde that Mack Brown is more than just head coach of the Longhorns. He is the CEO of one of college football’s biggest brand names. Forde attended coaches meetings, team meetings, team meals and practices, and traveled with the program to and from its season-opening game against Rice. … [H]e is also a father figure, a disciplinarian and a motivator to his players, and the face of the program to recruits, boosters, media and fans.” http://es.pn/9nDUNA

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****** A message from Morgan Stanley: Interested in the long-term investment opportunities that might arise from disruption? Morgan Stanley Investment Management Disruptive Change Researcher Stan Delaney shares five emerging trends that investors should watch over the next decade. "Disruptive change is so pervasive that our team looks at all of our investments through a disruptive lens," says DeLaney "Our disruptive analysis effort is really about supporting the Growth Team's strategy of long-term investing, finding companies with a sustainable competitive advantage, and making sure that we aren't holding companies that could be left behind." These trends—spanning autonomous driving, machine learning, augmented reality and more—could have far-reaching implications for economies, industries and social behavior. Read more. ******

About The Author

Mike Allen is the chief White House correspondent for POLITICO. He comes to us from Time magazine where he was their White House correspondent. Prior to that, Allen spent six years at The Washington Post, where he covered President Bush's first term, Capitol Hill, campaign finance, and the Bush, Gore and Bradley campaigns of 2000. Before turning to national politics, he covered schools and local governments in rural counties outside Fredericksburg, Va., for The Free Lance-Star, then wrote about Doug Wilder, Oliver North, Chuck Robb and the Bobbitts for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, where he nurtured police sources on overnight ride-alongs through housing projects. Allen also covered Mayor Giuliani, the Connecticut statehouse and the wacky rich of Greenwich for The New York Times. Before moving to The Times, he did stints in the Richmond and Alexandria bureaus of The Washington Post. Allen grew up in Orange County, Calif., and has a B.A. from Washington and Lee University, where he majored in politics and journalism.