Building a Snowman, Girraween National
Park, SE Queensland, 4 July 1984Photo courtesy of Ulrike and Siegfried Manietta

For many children, the
excitement of freshly fallen snow and the magical transformation it makes to a
familiar world is seldom forgotten.For
those who have never seen snow, stories of white Christmases, Arctic adventure,
the conquest of high mountains, winter holidays in
exotic countries, and fairy tales set in unfamiliar snow bound countries infuse
a powerful mythology, one that lasts well into adult life.

For those who don’t live
among the ‘eternal snows’, but where snow is more rarely experienced such as
South East Queensland, a winter snowfall provides a diversion from the humdrum
regularity of everyday life. It offers a period of imaginative escape, a
remnant of childhood dreams and fantasies – perhaps
a glass of wine and a fine meal in front of a roaring fire. Unusual falls of
snow can transform people, making them more gregarious, good humoured and
generous of spirit. When snow falls in Queensland, many grown-ups pack up their
cars with warm cloths, hot drinks, children, and excitement and head for the snow
line.

Snow In South East Queensland

Historically
speaking, snowfall is not rare in South East Queensland occurring on average a
little more than once per year over the past 134 years. However, several years
may pass without snow falling somewhere in Queensland. Interestingly, The Queenslander magazine noted on the 6th
November 1895 that: ‘Snow is unknown in Queensland, except at the Stanthorpe
Highlands, and very rarely falls even there’. The facts are, however, that snow
has fallen as far North as the Clark Ranges near Mackay, as far West as Texas
and can hardly be described as a rare event in the Stanthorpe district.

Certainly,
from the perspective of some years snow may seem to be an exceptional
occurrence, whereas at other times, for example in the early 1960s, snow would
seem to be a regular visitor to Queensland’s Granite Belt and Southern Downs in
winter time. The most recent settling snow fall in Queensland occurred on the
28th July 2008 when up to two centimetres were recorded by observers
at Eukey, 14 kilometres South East of Stanthorpe. More
recently, a further, but non-settling fall occurred on the 12th October
2012 on the Eukey plateau. During this event, some
light snow cover may have occurred in the higher parts of the district. Courtesy
of the ‘Toowoomba Chronicle’, a short clip of this fall, recorded in the Eukey district can be viewed at:
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/winter-makes-comeback-temps-dip-minuses-toowoomba/1580064/

The Last Great Snow Event in South East
Queensland: July 1984

Snow began falling on The
Granite Belt on Tuesday 3rd of July with falls continuing till
Thursday the 5th. Heavy falls were recorded at Mount Tully and Eukey (South-East of Stanthorpe) where the snow cover was
reported to be 60cm deep in surrounding areas with 15cm in the town. In
Stanthorpe snow was ‘welcomed with sheer delight by most residents’ (Border
Post, July 5, 1984). The snowmen and snowball fights that erupted on every
corner of the town attested to the general euphoria. To the east of Stanthorpe,
Graziers began moving ewes, and does in lamb into shelter as the snow
persisted.

‘Just like a Christmas scene’
is how stranded Warwick bowler Mrs. Pat Collins
described the view from her Tenterfield motel room as she and five friends played
cards and watched the snowfall (Daily News, July 4, 1984). The bowlers, who
were visiting Tenterfield to take part in a tournament, became stranded when
snow and ice made the road back into Queensland dangerous. In Brisbane it also
‘tried hard to snow’ reported a spokesman for the Weather Bureau. Guests on the
21st floor of Lennon’s Hotel in the city told how they had seen snow
blowing past their windows. The snow, however, turned to sleet before it hitting
the Brisbane streets. The closest settling snow to Brisbane fell on Mount Tambourine
and Mount Glorious, a one hour drive from the City.

‘The Pyramids’, Girraween National Park, viewed across
open fields during the snow event

of July
1984. Photo courtesy
of Ulrike and Siegfried Manietta.

An extraordinary lemming like
rush to see Queensland’s very own snowfields began on the Tuesday when hundreds
of sightseers headed to the Granite Belt. A particularly keen snow chaser
chartered a plane to travel from North Queensland and join the fun. The local
telephone system became overloaded and broke down as people endeavoured to tell
their friends of the great event. You can read a snow chase report of this
event here. More photos of this extraordinary event can be found
here.

Snow year Cycles

An analysis of South East Queensland snowfall history
shows that there is a loose cycle of approximately 4-5 years between good and
poor snowy winters. This cycle, however, cannot be relied on in a predictive
sense. Nevertheless, as the last snow falls occurred in 2007 and 2008 on the
Granite Belt, further snowfalls could happen during winters of 2012 and 2013.
On the other hand, snow can fall somewhere in South East Queensland any time
between the months of May and November.

A
second cycle demonstrated by the snowfall data shows a rotation of
approximately 30-years between peak snow periods in South East Queensland. These
peaks occurred in the mid-nineteen twenties, the early nineteen fifties and
early to mid nineteen eighties. The most recent of these
‘fuzzy’ cycles should peak in the around 2015, but shows little sign of being
significant at this stage – global
warming perhaps?
You will find a historical table of Queensland snowfalls with analysis here.

Figure One

Notes on Figure One

Figure
one shows the snow days that have occurred in South East Queensland,
(predominantly the Southern Downs and Granite Belt districts) during the past
134 years. There have been 156 snow days in this period, which represents just
over one snow day per year. Figure 1 shows an area graph of these falls with a
6-year moving average and the 134-year trend line. The trend line shows a
decline in snow days from just over one snow day per year to approximately 0.85
snow days per year currently - a decline of approximately 20 per cent over the
period.

Clearly
the 50-year period from 1925-1975 was a prominent one for snow in South East
Queensland realizing 60 per cent of the total falls that occurred during the
past 134 years. Incidentally, only 76 of the past 133 years provided a snowfall
in South East Queensland. Potential for years with snow have declined from a
probability of 0.65 to 0.4 per year over the past 134 years. Thus currently,
there is only a 40% chance of snow falling somewhere in SE Queensland each
year. There is no indication that this rate will improve according to the
experience of recent years.

However,
another snowy period, similar to those experienced between 1928-1937 and
1958-1967 (see figure two) may occur once more. It is highly likely, however,
that global warming may moderate any such future occurrences. Despite this gloomy
prognosis, Peter Burr (Armidale Weather) suggests that: ‘With Armidale’s
winters becoming milder it seems unlikely that any further major 1984 intensity
snowfalls will occur. However, with the ever-increasing erratic nature of
weather systems, nothing can be ruled out with certainty. With the right
conditions still occasionally occurring during the winter months, another good
heavy snowfall is still possible’. There is hope!

Periods
of 3-5 years without snowfall including 1890-1894, 1942-1945, 1979-1981, and
2001-2004, are equally dispersed throughout the 134-years of this record The
last big snow event occurred in South East Queensland during July 1984. Other
big events include July 1884, June 1900, July 1959 and July 1974.

Figure Two

Notes on Figure two

Figure
two shows the number of snow days that occurred in SE Queensland for each
10-year period from 1878.The chart
shows that in two 10-year periods (6 and 9) 1928 -1937 and 1958-1967 there was
an average of just over 2-snow days per year. The periods showing the least
frequency are the recent phases1988-1997 and 1998-2007 with an average of 0.5
snow days per year.

The
linear trend line revealed in figure two shows a similar story of declining
snow days in SE Queensland as does figure one. This does not,
however rule out an extraordinary event in the future.

The Best Period to See Snow and Sleet in SE Queensland

Figure
three shows that the best opportunity to observe snow or sleet falling in SE
Queensland is in the 20-day period (periods 9 and 10 below) from the 11th to
30th July. Forty-five per cent of Queensland’s snowfalls occur in
July according to past records. The black line in figure 3 shows the 2-period
moving average for smoothing purposes.