Global Electric Passenger Car Sales Database, Forecast to 2025

China to Lead the Electric Vehicle Market

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Published: 25 Sep 2017

This study discusses the global electric vehicle (EV) market till 2025. The geographical scope includes North America, Europe, and Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea). EVs are gaining momentum and currently hold less than 1% of the total market share in passenger car segment. However, by 2025, over 10% of the market is likely to be help by EVs with a mix of pure battery EVs, plug-in hybrid EVs, mild hybrid EVs and full hybrid EVs. Due to the stringent emission norms, over 95% of the OEMs have an EV in development which clearly shows an inclination toward the technology indicating an impact on gasoline vehicles. Currently, most of the European countries have announced several regulations (such as ban on diesel vehicles) which will restrict the use of conventional vehicles post 2025. The global EV market is likely to reach between 949,000 and 1 million unit sales for the first time up from 774,025 in 2016. Approximately 25 new models are likely to be launched in 2017. Most of the OEMs have announced plans on launching at least one type of hybrid amongst battery EVs, plugin hybrid EVs, mild hybrid EVs or full hybrid EVs as a variant of their flagship models. Traditional automakers are now making numerous attempts to capitalize the opportunity by introducing hybrid vehicles on the market after the success of new entrants such as Tesla and other start-ups which are likely to join the bandwagon. The most anticipated models are Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla Model 3. Over 124 models were available in the market: 80 BEVs and 44 PHEVs out of which Volkswagen Group is expected to launch 18 new PHEV by 2020 as a reformation strategy after the infamous diesel gate scandal. Approximately 6 to 8 models are likely to be launched in 2017. Approximately, 8 million EVs are likely to be sold globally by 2025, with China holding over 40% market share followed by Europe with 29% market share. The adoption of BEVs is likely to be higher that PHEVs, with BEVs selling over 53% of total EV sales by 2025 which will be mainly because of heavy participation from Chinese OEMs and stringent emission norms in Europe. A number of start-ups will launch their plans to introduce EVs into the market, which will mainly focus on competing with Tesla. Some of the companies include Lucid Motors, NextEV, and Faraday Future. The Middle East, South Africa, South America, and a few countries in Asia-Pacific commenced sales of EVs in 2016. Though the market is not very attractive for the automakers, the Middle East is likely to become a hub for premium EVs.