MUSEUMS' DARK DAYS A THREE-YEAR FALLOFF IN ATTENDANCE

Attendance at all of the city's top institutions is down in this decade-in some cases, precipitously-threatening funding and prompting a re-evaluation of outdated marketing programs.

From 1991 to 1994, total attendance, including free days and school groups, for six lakefront institutions fell:

Adler Planetarium, down 33.8%.

John G. Shedd Aquarium, down 18.3%.

Chicago Historical Society, down 14.1%.

Art Institute of Chicago, down 13.6%.

Museum of Science and Industry, down 5.4%.

Field Museum, down 5.2%.

Institutional reaction varies.

"We've been disappointed," says Laura Gates, vice-president for museum affairs at the Field Museum. Despite last year's "DNA to Dinosaurs" opening, the long-overdue and much-ballyhooed revamp of the famed dinosaur exhibit, visitors in 1994 actually dropped 5.3% to 1.2 million, compared with 1993.

"We didn't see the bump in overall attendance we'd expected. I don't think there is a consensus (among staff about the reason)," Ms. Gates says. So far this year, she says, attendance is about the same as last year.

On the other hand, a drop of nearly 205,000 in annual attendance at the Art Institute between 1991 and 1994-to just under 1.3 million-is "all the same as far as we look at it. I'd be really alarmed if it fell to 1 million," says Chris O'Neill, vice-president for development. "A variation of 200,000 is not unusual or alarming in any way."

Attendance in the first quarter of 1995 is essentially even with last year, she says.

In the past four years, the Museum of Science and Industry has introduced 60,000 square feet of new exhibits, at a cost of $21 million. But its attendance remains below 2 million annually.

However, it was the only one of the six institutions posting an attendance increase in 1994, and the tally this year is up 16% over last year at this time, says Vice-president of Programs Marvin Pinkert.

"I think we have been very successful," he says. "If the average time between visits is two years, then we're still seeing the effects of (instituting an admission) fee," which the museum did in June 1991. Between 1990 and 1991, estimated attendance at the museum plummeted 44.6%.

Officials at the Chicago Historical Society could not be reached for comment.

Nationwide, museums are hurting, say museum association officials, and Chicago's declines are not as steep as those in some other cities.

Attendance is a key measure of how well a cultural institution serves its community, and is used by foundations, corporations and government agencies when deciding on grant applications. As the federal government becomes stingier with taxpayer money earmarked for the arts, the measure will become even more important.

When attendance declines, "fees get raised to keep the doors open," says Ed Able, president of the Washington, D.C.-based American Assn. of Museums. That, in turn, discourages attendance. And donors may question the wisdom of giving to an institution that doesn't seem able to effectively execute its basic mission.

Notes Barbara Meyerson, president of Washington, D.C.-based Assn. of Youth Museums, "Sponsors say, 'How many people will see my name?'"

And the Field Museum's Ms. Gates says, "There are financial realities. Incremental revenue (from additional visitors) does mean that you can support programming."

The six institutions all are members of Museums in the Park. They pay no rent for their space on Chicago Park District land and, along with three other park institutions, receive $36 million in annual operating subsidies. Last year, the Park District floated the first of what is expected to be a $128-million series of bond offerings, at no cost to the institutions, to help them pay for capital improvements.

The average age of these museums is more than 92 years, but they are fighting an uphill battle against such diversions as computers and computer networks-many CD-ROM programs fill the same educational need as museums-and high-tech commercial play centers. And, thanks to airfare wars, travel is relatively inexpensive.

"Museums really should think about who they're programming for and keep abreast of the market. I don't think we've done such a hot job," Ms. Meyerson says.

"There's a tendency toward insularity-that somehow, you're invulnerable from changes in the market. That's not true. We in the museum world have to be prepared with good market research. You can't just build it and they will come."

In the 1980s, museum attendance was built on and sustained by a succession of blockbuster shows, but "the concept of the blockbuster exhibit is passe," says Conover Hunt, head of Museum Consultations, a Dallas-based firm. "The market can't sustain them every year."

Institution officials agree: Blockbuster shows do not build long-term loyalty. "They've brought whole new groups of people in, but you tend to gear your marketing and fund-raising around those shows. In the past five and six years, we've taken a longer view," says the Art Institute's Ms. O'Neill.

The longer view, for most institutions, means a fresh look at their marketing programs.

Shedd Aquarium only recently began tracking such basic information as which visitors are from the Chicago area and which from out-of-town; the Field Museum has only spot-checked visitor origin through the years.

Museum officials say they are trying to change that.

For example, Joyce Parker-Johnson, newly installed director of marketing at the Adler Planetarium, says for its upcoming exhibit on medieval astronomy tools, the staff solicited visitors' opinions of display prototypes. The exhibit, opening in May, highlights such items as working models that visitors can try out for themselves.

Debra Fassnacht, communications director at the Shedd Aquarium, is collecting information on its customer base.

Shedd enjoyed a 70% increase in attendance in 1991 over 1990, when its Oceanarium opened, but attendance has fallen since 1992.

"We are in the throes of a major long-range planning effort," says Ms. Fassnacht.

Such plans are a good start, Ms. Meyerson says. Museums are "in a fundamental shift from being inwardly focused to being market-driven," she says. "It's getting out the front door and meeting your neighbors."