Wednesday, May 4, 2016

All these Christians celebrating a small dip in Target shares

Next time you want investment advice, call Jim DeMint. None of these people have ever worked in private industry. You would think that some of them think that Target loses operating income when its stock declines. Or perhaps that is what they are trying to have the faithful infer. One never knows. Correlating a relatively small decline in shares to American Family Association's silly boycott is absurd.

Close to 90% of Target shares are held by mutual funds and institutional investors. Target has not changed its guidance. Ultimately, over time, its shares will be valued based on a combination of earnings per share and general market conditions. My technical analysis skills are a bit rusty but it looks like the stock formed a double bottom. On the fundamental side, Target sales are forecast to decline through the end of the year while increasing profitability. Target had a small miss last quarter (coming in lower than analyst estimates). The April quarter will be reported shortly. Target is on a January fiscal year so the next quarter ends in July. Analyst estimates (for whatever they are worth) remain the same over the last seven days. So be it.

Getting back to the people who employ music major Ryan T. Anderson to be an expert (on what exactly?):

“Target’s policy is exactly how sexual predators get access to their victims,” the American Family Association,
a nonprofit that supports Christians values, wrote April 20. “And with
Target publicly boasting that men can enter women’s bathrooms, where do
you think predators are going to go?”

No it is not (how sexual predators get access to their victims). Just a reminder of why AFA is a certified hate group. Assuming that comes from Don's idiot son, Tim Wildmon, he cannot cite a single example of what he is claiming.

“Target stocks are dropping. They
started dropping the day we announced this boycott,” Sandy Rios, the
group’s director of government affairs, told Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Stephen K. Bannon.

Another genius. Referring to stock as stocks is a reliable tell. Target started a decline on April 20. AFA announced its boycott after the close of the market on April 20 and it didn't have any real traction for several days. Correlation vs. causation. Institutional holders know that, historically, boycotts do not usually affect earnings. I would bet that this will blow over and AFA will be stuck with yet another boycott that will be a loser for them.

Oh, and if Jim DeMint is on another line you can always try Brian Brown for investment advice.