At one point last season, Giancarlo Stanton went 61-for-176 (.347) with 30 home runs — 30 home runs! — in a span of 48 games. And at one point two years ago, Stanton went 11-for-88 (.125) with 44 strikeouts in a span of 24 games. Within that 24-game slump was a brutal 0-for-17 with 15 strikeouts stretch. For real.

Stanton is an outlier in baseball today given his power and size, and as those two streaks show, his performance can be extreme, both good and bad. He’ll hit homers in bunches and also strike out in bunches. Or at least he stuck out in bunches prior to last season. Stanton trimmed his strikeout rate down to a career low 23.6% last year. Check it out:

Even with a strikeout rate hovering around 30%, Stanton was still extremely productive from 2010-16. The guy hit .266/.357/.539 (142 wRC+) and averaged 41 homers per 162 games those years. He struck out often and made pitchers pay often. Then last year, Giancarlo cut down on his strikeouts, and he became the NL MVP.

Stanton is a Yankee now — did you get the memo? — and in Aaron Judge, the Yankees have the closest thing to Stanton as well. It’s pretty cool. Judge was actually better than Stanton last season. Giancarlo hit more homers, but Judge had the edge in AVG, OBP, wRC+, and both versions of WAR. Drew more walks and stole more bases too.

Of course, Judge also struck out more than Stanton. Forty-five more times, to be exact. Judge struck out more times than any batter last season. Stanton has never led his league in strikeouts, but he’s consistently had one of the highest strikeout rates in the baseball throughout his career. At least until last season.

Stanton cut down on his strikeouts last season and, given the similarities in their games and their size, it’s only natural to wonder whether Judge can do the same. Specifically, could the adjustment Stanton made also work for Judge? It might! It also might foul Judge up and turn him into a taller Ronald Torreyes at the plate. Who knows?

Before discussing this further, we have to understand the adjustment Stanton made, and fortunately it was fairly straightforward. Giancarlo closed up his stance so he could better get to the outside pitch. A before and after photo:

Stanton really closed up his batting stance. I mean really, really closed it up. Now for the twist ending: That screen grab on the left is from June 19th of last season. The screen grab on the right is from September. Stanton made that adjustment and closed up his batting stance in the middle of the season. He didn’t do it over the winter.

Here’s a compilation video of Giancarlo’s 59 homers. You can see him gradually close up his stance as the season progresses. It doesn’t happen all at once. Stanton closes up a bit, then a little more, then a little more, then a little more again. It’s pretty cool. And as Stanton closed up his batting stance, his swing-and-miss rate dropped:

Neat! Once Stanton started to close his stance, he swung and missed less, which meant more balls in play, and given his power, that meant more dingers. It’s probably not a coincidence Giancarlo went on that monster home run tear — again, he hit 30 homers in 48 games at one point last season — in the second half, after closing up his stance.

Here are two heat maps. The heat map on the left shows Stanton’s swing-and-misses in the first half last season, and the heat map on the right shows Stanton’s swing-and-misses in the second half last season. So basically open stance vs. closed stance.

Stanton had problems with pitches down and away — like most hitters — specifically breaking balls. Those sliders look like fastballs down the middle until they start sliding. Once he closed up his stance though, Stanton was able to get to that down and away pitch more effectively, hence the reduction in swings and misses and strikeouts.

Judge — again, like most hitters — has a similar issue with pitches down and away. He was actually much better at making contact with pitches out over the plate than Stanton, but yeah, down and away was his weakness. Here is Judge’s swing-and-miss heat map for the entirety of last season:

Over the years Judge has gone through several batting stance changes designed to help him make more contact, and hey, they’ve worked like a charm. Dude became the first rookie in history to hit 50 homers last season and he was the MVP runner-up. Who cares how much he strikes out when he produces like that? Would we all feel better if we replaced 70 strikeouts with 70 ground outs?

The matter at hand isn’t last year though. Last year is last year. The question is whether Judge can maintain last season’s level of performance going forward with that high a strikeout rate. Here are the best offensive seasons among players with a 30% strikeout rate and enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title:

2017 Aaron Judge: 173 wRC+ and 30.7% strikeouts

2015 Chris Davis: 149 wRC+ and 31.0% strikeouts

2007 Jack Cust: 145 wRC+ and 32.3% strikeouts

2010 Adam Dunn: 136 wRC+ and 30.7% strikeouts

2015 Kris Bryant: 136 wRC+ and 30.6% strikeouts

Yup. What Judge did last season was unprecedented given his strikeout rate. Maybe he is a unique case and can continue producing at that rate while striking out so much. He’s done it once, right? Maybe he can do it again and again and again.

That said, the smart money is on Judge having to cut down on his strikeout rate to maintain that offensive performance. Fewer strikeouts equals more balls and play, and when you hit the ball as hard as Judge, that means a lot more damage. And who knows, maybe Judge can take his offense to another level if he cuts down his strikeout rate. That’d be pretty awesome.

Judge’s current batting stance, the one he’s worked hard to perfect and the one that helped him become an MVP caliber producer, is slightly open. A relevant screen grab:

Stanton’s batting stance was more closed than that before he closed it up even more last year. Would it make sense for Judge to close up his stance to combat that down and away pitch? And if it does, would it hinder his ability to handle the inside pitch? Judge is pretty great at turning on inside pitches for a dude his size. You’d hate to take that away.

Given how great he was last season, and how successful he’s been at making adjustments throughout his career, it’s tempting to say Judge shouldn’t screw around with anything. You don’t want to risk breaking something that doesn’t need to be fixed, you know? Judge is a smart hitter. Let him adjust naturally and hope he cuts down on strikeouts that way. What worked for Stanton might not work for Judge despite their similarities.

At the same time, Stanton had such great success after cutting down on strikeouts last season. It’s not only him either. George Springer is another guy who’s cut down on his strikeouts over the years and had increased success. Judge is great already, but with a few more balls in play, he could be even better, as crazy as that may sound. Stanton closed up his stance to close off that hole against down and away pitches. Something similar could work for Judge as well.

“That was one of the first things he said (when we first met). He said, ‘Hey man, when we get to Tampa, let’s spend some time in the cage and just pick each other’s brain,'” Judge said yesterday. “I’m excited just to pick his brain a little bit. About mechanics, his approach … It’s going to be nice to have another big guy in the clubhouse like that.”

The second day of Spring Training is in the books. Aaron Judge held a press conference today and said his surgically repaired left shoulder is doing well. He’s taking batting practice and is on track to be ready for Opening Day. The Yankees won’t rush him into Grapefruit League games, however. Also, without actually saying it, Judge more or less admitted the shoulder really bothered him last year during his slump. Not surprising. Here are some photos from today and here are the rest of the day’s notes:

CC Sabathia rolled his left ankle during a fielding drill and had it wrapped when he left the park. “I’m good,” he said. Brian Cashman said it’s not a concern. Phew. [George King]

Sheffield and Sabathia are locker neighbors and Sheffield said the two kept in touch over the winter. Sabathia is teaching him to backdoor his slider to righties. Also, Adams said he’s working on his changeup and fastball command this spring. [Kuty, Mike Mazzeo]

This is the open thread for the night. The Knicks and Nets are playing, there’s are a bunch of college hoops game on as well, and the Olympics are still going on. Talk about anything that isn’t religion or politics here. Thanks in advance.

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees will be one of the many teams in attendance tomorrow when former two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum throws for scouts in Seattle. Lincecum didn’t pitch at all last season, but apparently he has the itch again, and he’s attempting a comeback.

Over the winter Lincecum worked out at the Driveline Baseball facility in Seattle and, according to Jeff Passan, he’s regained some velocity. That passes the sniff test. Driveline’s throwing program has helped lots of pitchers add velocity, and Lincecum is pretty jacked these days:

Lincecum is 33 now and the last time he pitched in the big leagues, he was bad. Real bad. He allowed 41 runs and 93 baserunners in nine starts and 38.1 innings with the Angels in 2016. That works out to a 9.16 ERA (7.16 FIP) and a 2.38 WHIP. Yeesh.

In fact, it’s been several years since Lincecum has been an effective big leaguer. Going back to 2012, he has a 4.94 ERA (4.26 FIP) in 654 total innings. He was one of the best pitchers in the game from 2007-11 and one of the worst from 2012-16. Sucks. It went so quickly.

The Yankees will attend Lincecum’s workout because they attend everyone’s workout. They’re doing their due diligence, because if Lincecum has truly regained some velocity, it’s possible he’ll have some value on the mound. You can never have enough pitching. A few things about Timmy’s comeback and the Yankees.

1. This could be really fun. Man, when Lincecum was good, he was really good. Good and fun, which is the best kind of good. To wit:

?

It’s been a long time since Lincecum was last effective, but gosh, it sure is easy to dream on him as a reclamation project, isn’t it? I can picture it now, Lincecum going toe-to-toe with Justin Verlander in the ALCS. Imagine?

2. But seriously, how would this work? Lincecum didn’t pitch last year and he was pretty bad the five years prior to that, so, realistically, he’s looking at a minor league contract. Quality free agents like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are having trouble finding work this offseason. Ditto others like Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner, Trevor Cahill, and Jason Vargas. If those guys aren’t getting a guaranteed Major League contract, neither is Lincecum.

Because he has more than six years of service time, Lincecum will get a $100,000 retention bonus if he starts the season in Triple-A, and he’ll have an automatic June 1st opt-out clause. Chances are Lincecum and his agent will push for an opt-out at the end of Spring Training, because if shows up to camp and looks great, he’ll want an opportunity to find big league work elsewhere. Pretty standard, really. Minor league contract with a low base salary, some incentives, and an opt-out date at the end of camp. There’s the Lincecum contract.

The Yankees can always make room for Lincecum in their Triple-A rotation if that’s where this ends up, especially if Domingo Acevedo and/or Justus Sheffield start the season back in Double-A. I’d say Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Chance Adams are the only Triple-A rotation locks right now. The other two spots are up for grabs with Acevedo, Sheffield, David Hale, and Brady Lail in the mix. There’d be a spot for Lincecum, easy.

3. Forget about starting. Put him in the bullpen. Given how bad he’s been the last few years, I would forget all about trying Lincecum in the rotation. We’re not talking about putting 22-year-old Luis Severino in the bullpen here. It’s a soon-to-be 34-year-old who was out of baseball last season and hasn’t been effective since Jesus Montero wore pinstripes. A move to the bullpen at this point of Lincecum’s career is the natural order of things.

Lincecum has always been a bit of an adrenaline junkie and he’s had some success pitching out of the bullpen, most notably during the 2012 and 2014 postseasons, so it wouldn’t be a completely new experience for him. Put him in the bullpen, let him air it out for an inning at a time, and see what happens. Could be cool. I don’t think high-leverage situations would phase him at all, and the Yankees have the bullpen depth to break him in as a low-leverage guy at first.

(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

4. Are the Yankees a fit for Lincecum? The most important question. Why would Lincecum sign with the Yankees? I imagine his priorities are, in order, getting back to the big leagues and pitching well enough to stay in the big leagues. The Yankees have five starters for five spots at the moment, plus some good depth options. Lincecum would be, at best, sixth on the rotation depth chart. There are teams out there still looking for fifth starters.

As for pitching well enough to stay in the big leagues, Yankee Stadium and the AL East isn’t the best place to do that. The Yankees haven’t had much luck signing reclamation project pitchers over the years, if you haven’t noticed. This isn’t the easiest place for a pitcher to rebuild value. The last reclamation project pitchers they signed were … Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia? I think so. And those two guys were almost out of baseball before the Yankees came along. The Yankees were a last resort.

I feel like the same would have to be true for Lincecum, because, if the money is equal (luxury tax plan!), there are teams out there that could offer him an easier path to the big leagues and a more pitcher friendly environment. The Twins, for example. The Angels again. The Brewers, the Mets, his hometown Mariners. The Giants! Lincecum going back to San Francisco would be a cool baseball thing. Maybe Lincecum’s top priority is winning, and he’d sign with the Yankees for that reason. Otherwise it appears there are teams out there that better fit his needs.

* * *

Baseball is better when Lincecum is healthy and effective — he had hip surgery in 2015 and is now further away from the surgery than he was when he pitched with the Angels in 2016 — and I hope we get to see a good version of Lincecum again this season. It’d be really cool. And if we get to see him be healthy and effective in pinstripes, that would be even better. A minor league contract is no risk, so of course the Yankees try to sign Lincecum if he looks good in tomorrow’s workout. It’s just a question of whether Lincecum thinks the Yankees are the best team for him as he tries to revive his career.

For much of the offseason, the Yankees were said to be looking for another starting pitcher despite having five starters for five rotation spots. They were connected to potential impact guys too. Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer … pitchers like that. The Yankees are apparently willing to trade quality prospects to get one of those guys, but so far a trade has not come together. One might before Opening Day, but it hasn’t yet.

The ongoing search for a starting pitcher says two things. One, the Yankees want to maximize their World Series chances. That’s why the Astros traded for Cole, right? They were good enough to win the World Series as is, but they wanted to improve their chances. And two, the Yankees are at least a little concerned about their five starters holding up physically this year. Consider:

Sonny Gray: Three DL stints in the last two years (trap, forearm, lat).

Jordan Montgomery: Career high workload in 2017.

CC Sabathia: Pitching on a degenerative right knee.

Luis Severino: Career high workload (by far) in 2017.

Masahiro Tanaka: Good for one or two short DL stints each year, plus The Elbow™.

To that end, I am here to do what the headline says, and that is make a case for re-signing Jaime Garcia. Is Garcia an impact pitcher like Cole or Fulmer or Archer? Nope! But he is a capable big league starter who would give the Yankees that extra layer of rotation depth. After all, the Yankees traded for Garcia for that exact reason last year. For rotation depth and to guard against physical concerns, most notably Montgomery’s workload.

Garcia, 31, had a 4.82 ERA (4.87 FIP) in eight starts and 37.1 innings with the Yankees last year, though those numbers are skewed a bit by terrible first (six runs in 4.2 innings) and last (five runs in 2.1 innings) starts. Between those two starts Garcia had a 2.97 ERA in 30.1 innings. He had 4.41 ERA (4.25 FIP) in 157 total innings last year. I see three reasons the Yankees should consider re-signing Garcia.

Strikeouts and (mostly) grounders

At the end of the day, we’re talking about a left-handed pitcher with a history of generating ground balls and strikeouts. Garcia is better at getting grounders than strikeouts, but he can miss bats too. Here are his strikeout and ground ball numbers since coming back from the arm injuries that limited him to 99 total innings from 2013-14:

2015: 19.0% strikeouts and 61.2% grounders

2016: 20.2% strikeouts and 56.7% grounders

2017: 19.2% strikeouts and 54.8% grounders

An average-ish strikeout rate and a comfortably above-average ground ball rate. Only five left-handed starters have at least an 18.0% strikeout rate and a 50.0% ground ball rate over the last three seasons: Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, Francisco Liriano, Alex Wood, and Jaime Garcia. Liriano is the cautionary tale. He’s been pretty terrible the last two years (5.05 ERA and 4.80 FIP) despite those strikeout and ground ball numbers. The point is lefties who can miss bats and get grounders are not easy to find, and Garcia can do both. Those are welcome traits in Yankee Stadium.

He has bullpen experience

Including with the Yankees! Garcia came out of the bullpen in Game One of the ALDS last year and threw 2.2 scoreless and hitless innings, which gave the offense a chance to get back in the game. The bats never did come around, but that wasn’t Jaime’s fault.

Garcia worked out of the bullpen very early in his career and more recently with the Cardinals in 2016. He doesn’t have a ton of experience in that role, but he does have some, and that ALDS Game One performance last season showed he can do it. Garcia can come out of the bullpen and be effective.

Given the bullpen talking point, I should note Garcia’s numbers against left-handed batters are good rather than great — they’ve hit .248/.296/.379 (.293 wOBA) with a 23.0% strikeout rate and a 57.3% ground ball rate against him the last three years — so if the backup plan is using him as a true left-on-left reliever, it might not work so well. Garcia can pitch out of the bullpen though. He can be stashed there until a need arises in the rotation.

He’ll probably come cheap

The market has not been kind to free agents this offseason. Many of the top guys are having trouble finding jobs. Second and third tier free agents like Garcia have been completely left out in the cold. Spring Training started this week and I’m sure a bunch of those guys are getting pretty nervous right now. They’re not just wondering where they’ll play this season, but if they’ll play at all.

Garcia was not expected to receive a large contract going into the offseason anyway — MLB Trade Rumors had him at two years and $16M — and now, given the market, he could be headed for a low base salary one-year contract. The Rangers gave Doug Fister one year and $4M. Miguel Gonzalez got one year and $4.75M. Mike Fiers got one year and $6M. Can Garcia get more than that? Maybe! But I wouldn’t bet on it at this point.

The Yankees have about $12M to spend even after setting aside $10M for midseason additions. The financial aspect of re-signing Garcia should be no problem. The Yankees have the payroll space. It’s just a question of what the Yankees are planning to do with that $12M — are they eyeing an infielder? — and is Garcia willing to come back to New York and their hitter friendly ballpark to be sixth on the rotation depth chart, and possibly sit in the bullpen all year? If nothing else, re-signing Jaime won’t break the bank or endanger the luxury tax plan. Cheap depth.

* * *

For what it’s worth, Garcia’s projections aren’t good — ZiPS has him at 4.71 ERA (4.66 FIP) in 2018 — though I’m not going to sweat that. I’m not talking about throwing him into the rotation all season. Sign him to a cheap one-year deal, stick him in the open final bullpen spot, and if injury or poor performance creates a need in the rotation, then Garcia can slot in. If not, no big deal. And given the expected contract terms, It’d also be an easy move to back out of if Garcia stinks. Just cut him.

The Yankees insist they are comfortable with their rotation and are willing to go into the season with this group, and hey, so am I. They’re not foolish enough to think they’ll make it through the season with only five (or even six) starters, however. The Yankees have been looking for another arm, and since landing a true impact guy seems unlikely at this point, spending a little cash on a cheap left-handed depth arm with a penchant for ground balls strikes me as a nifty little pickup that could pay dividends.

Spring Training is officially underway. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday, they threw the ball around a little bit, and they’ll do it all again today. And tomorrow. And the next however many days after that. Position players report Sunday, and next Friday actual Spring Training games begin. Can’t wait. Baseball is better than no baseball.

As is the case every year, the Yankees have some storylines worth keeping an eye on this spring. The biggest, obviously, is the infield situation. Second and third base are wide open — they are “fluid,” as new manager Aaron Boone said yesterday — and while we have an idea who will ultimately fill those positions, lots of weird stuff happens in Spring Training. This year will be no different. Here are what I consider the five most important storylines this spring, in no particular order.

Anyway, setting aside $10M still leaves the Yankees with $12M to spend, and I have to think they’re going to spend it. Free agency is the smart bet — there are still sooo many good free agents unsigned — but I suppose they could always take on salary in a trade. Sign an infielder like Neil Walker? Or a depth starter like, say, Jaime Garcia? Or maybe someone better than a depth starter like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn?

I don’t think that $12M is going unspent. The Yankees have needs like every other team and there are still quality free agents on the market, so it’s not like they have nowhere to spend it. In previous years the free agent market would’ve been picked clean by now. Spending $12M would’ve been tough without overpaying someone. That isn’t the case now. That $12M is going somewhere.

How does Gleyber look after his injury?

Gleyber Torres has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, and during an MLB Network appearance yesterday, he said he took live batting practice for the first time Monday. That’s good. Torres seems to be on a typical “get ready for the season” schedule. Tommy John surgery is a major procedure, obviously, but there is less risk with position players, especially when they have it on their non-throwing arms.

I’m looking forward to seeing Gleyber in camp (who isn’t?) and I suspect we won’t even be able to tell he had the surgery. I still want to see him in action though, to see if there’s any rust, to see if he’s apprehensive at all when swinging, things like that. It’s a bit of a weird situation. Torres has a chance to win a big league roster spot and of course he wants to do well this spring. At the same time, you don’t want him overdoing it so soon after elbow surgery, and risking a setback.

Is Betances throwing strikes?

This will be Dellin Betances’ fourth Spring Training as a no-doubt member of the bullpen and the previous three have followed the same script. Betances comes out of the gate sitting closer to 94-95 mph than 98-99 mph, and he doesn’t throw strikes. Then, by the end of camp, the velocity is back and his mechanics are locked in, and he looks like dominant Dellin. No reason to think this year will be different, really.

This year is different, however. Betances was borderline unusable down the stretch last season because he couldn’t throw strikes. He has a history of control problems and late last year was his worst stretch as a big leaguer. Spring Training is Spring Training, these guys go through the motions and focus on getting their work in more than anything, but in Dellin’s case, it would behoove him to come out strong and show he is back to throwing strikes, and that Boone can trust him right away.

“(I) wanted to get to a weight I was comfortable at, where I was two, three years ago. I just feel like I’m trying to start strong and finish strong,” said Betances, who dropped 16 lbs. this offseason, to Erik Boland yesterday. “I felt like last year my delivery was just not there, I just wasn’t consistent with that. I worked on my breaking ball (this winter), throwing it more for strikes. Last year, obviously, I had problems with a lot of walks, so that was a focal point for me.”

Who emerges as the sixth starter?

Green (trust me). (Presswire)

If the Yankees sign or trade for another starter, the sixth starter might be Jordan Montgomery. For now Montgomery is in the starting five and sixth starter duties will likely fall on Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Chance Adams. The sleeper: Chad Green. A lot of times the sixth starter decision gets made by the schedule — who is lined up to pitch that day? — but those are usually only spot starts. I’m talking about the full-time sixth starter.

In reality, the sixth starter race won’t be decided in Spring Training. Hopefully the Yankees won’t need one for a while, but, if they do, they figure to go with who is pitching the best at the time rather than who pitched the best in March. Cessa could put up a 0.75 ERA during Grapefruit League play, but if it’s mid-June and German is sitting on a 1.90 ERA with 25.0 K-BB% rate in Triple-A, he’s going to get the call. It is possible to jump to the front of the line in camp though, so if a sixth starter is needed early in the season, you can be the guy who gets called up.

How’s Boone handling things?

Spoiler alert: Boone’s first Spring Training as a manager will probably look like the ten Spring Trainings under Joe Girardi. Maybe they’ll do a few more team-bonding things? Otherwise it’ll be business as usual. Spring Training won’t be a good time to get a read on the new skipper. Certainly not in terms of on-field strategy and whatnot. Lineups don’t mean much and no one plays the bullpen matchup game during Grapefruit League play.

I guess the big thing to watch is how Boone handles the inevitable crisis — a player leaves a game with an injury, does Boone clam up like Girardi when asked about it? — and what sort of mood hangs over camp. Should be one of excitement! The Yankees are good, they have a lot of fun young players, and they added Giancarlo Stanton. Should be a blast. If it’s not, that’ll be weird, especially after Boone said his priority is building strong relationships with his players time and time again over the winter.

“I want to be somebody that is known as a smart manager, that makes solid decisions and is prepared,” said Boone yesterday. “But also one that when you walk into our clubhouse, hopefully I’m part of what I believe is a winning culture (and) a culture where guys are at ease, where guys are allowed to be themselves. When you walk into our room, it’s not a stressful place. It’s a place where guys are at work but there’s a joy coming there to do their job. Hopefully I’m part of creating that atmosphere.”

* * *

There is plenty of other stuff to keep an eye on this spring. How do Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton handle left field? Does Chasen Shreve get the final bullpen spot by default, or does someone else take it? Does Greg Bird make it out in one piece? All of that stuff will be settled in time and I don’t think we’re in for any surprises. Hopefully Bird stays healthy. Chances are Judge and Stanton will be fine in left. Shreve probably gets the last bullpen spot, and if he doesn’t, eh who cares.

To me, the most important things this spring are Gleyber’s elbow, Dellin’s control, and Boone’s on-the-job training. I’m interesting to see where that $12M is going, sure, but I’m more interested in Torres, Dellin, and Boone. Those are three pretty important members of the organization and they’re all facing different challenges this spring. The Yankees want all of them to begin 2018 off on the right foot.

Spring Training is underway. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa today and new manager Aaron Boone held his start of spring press conference, which you can watch above. No significant news was announced. Boone called the second and third base situations “fluid” and said the Yankees haven’t picked an Opening Day starter yet. That’s about it. Here are some photos from the first day of camp and here’s everything else you need to know from the first day of camp:

The first day of Spring Training is mostly just showing up and taking physicals, though CC Sabathia, Justus Sheffield, Dillon Tate, and Chance Adams were among those who threw bullpen sessions today. [Erik Boland, Brendan Kuty]

Aaron Judge is working out alongside pitchers and catchers at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The rest of the position players are stuck working out at the minor league complex until reporting day Sunday. Judge gets to work out on the main field because he is a considered a rehabbing player following shoulder surgery. [Sweeny Murti]

This is the open thread for the evening. The three local hockey teams are playing, there’s a bunch of college basketball on the schedule, and the Olympics are going on. Talk about those games, the first day of Spring Training, and anything else here as long as it’s not religion or politics. Get that outta here.

At some point soon, possibly even this week, MLB will likely announce a pitch clock will be implemented this season. MLB is pushing the MLBPA for new pace-of-play measures, and the union is rejecting everything because they’re angry about the free agent market, so MLB will unilaterally implement rule changes. Like it or not, a pitch clock is coming. The league is pushing for it.

According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, MLB can only implement last year’s rule change proposal unilaterally. Here are the details of last year’s pace-of-play proposal:

A 20-second pitch clock in all situations and a 30-second clock between batters.

One warning per team before automatic ball/strike penalties are levied for violations.

One mound trip per inning by a player or coach. A second visit necessitates a pitching change.

I’m okay with a pitch clock. There is too much standing around in baseball. A pitch clock will help eliminate downtime. The mound trip thing will create some headaches. An infielder will go grab some rosin and the opposing team will argue it’s a mound visit. That sorta thing. We’ll see how that goes. Pitch clock is a-okay with me. You won’t even notice it after a few weeks. The mound visit rule? Eh. Might need some tweaking.

Anyway, players will have to adjust to the new pitch clock, especially the guys who have been in the big leagues for a while. They’ve had a 20-second pitch clock in Double-A and Triple-A for three years now. Young pitchers like Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino have pitched with a pitch clock before. It’ll be nothing new to them. Veterans like CC Sabathia and David Robertson might need some time to adjust.

Perhaps no pitcher on the Yankees — or in baseball in general — will have to make a bigger adjustment to comply with the 20-second pitch clock than Aroldis Chapman, who has gradually become one of the slowest workers in the game over the last few years. Here is his pace the last five years, and his rank among the 300-ish pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in those seasons:

2013: 23.9 seconds (119th highest)

2014: 24.8 seconds (96th highest)

2015: 24.2 seconds (90th highest)

2016: 26.7 seconds (24th highest)

2017: 29.7 seconds (7th highest)

Chapman’s pace has increased nearly six seconds over the last five years. Six seconds! That’s a ton. That’s six additional seconds of rest between each pitch. Chapman has averaged 17 pitches per inning consistently throughout his career, so we’re talking roughly 96 extra seconds of rest in an average outing. That’s not insignificant.

Last year Rob Arthur ran some numbers and found that, not surprisingly, pitchers add a little velocity when they take more time between pitches. That extra rest matters. Here is a graph from Rob’s post:

In Chapman’s case, he is taking a lot of extra time between pitches relative to the rest of the league and relative to himself just a few years ago. And velocity is Chapman’s thing, right? He throws harder than anyone in baseball history. That’s how he succeeds. We saw what happened when his velocity dipped at times last year. It wasn’t pretty.

Once the 20-second pitch clock is implemented, Chapman will have to shave approximately ten seconds — ten seconds! — off his pace from last year. That is a huge adjustment. It might not mean much within the first few pitches of an outing, but what happens when Chapman gets 15 pitches deep into an appearance and he’s had basically two fewer minutes of rest between pitches leading up to that point? The tank might be empty much sooner than usual.

Sonny Gray is going to have to adjust to the inevitable pitch count as well — he averaged 28.3 seconds between pitches last season, highest among all pitchers with enough innings to quality for the ERA title by a full second — but unlike Chapman, Gray doesn’t rely on velocity to succeed. Don’t get me wrong. Losing a little velocity could affect Sonny’s performance. He has other weapons to get outs through. Chapman rides or dies with No. 1.

What sort of adjustment will Chapman have to make once a pitch clock is implemented? It’s hard to say. Maybe he changes his conditioning to deal with the reduced “rest” between pitches. Or maybe he has to change up his pitching plan and not rely on throwing fastballs by everyone. I don’t have much hope for him improving command at this point, it is what it is, so I guess that would mean more sliders and changeups?

Fortunately, Chapman has velocity to spare, and if the pitch clock means he sits closer to 100 mph going forward rather than 104 mph, so be it. Not much the Yankees can do. It’s also possible Chapman will lose no velocity at all. He’s a freak of nature and I mean that in a good way. He’s so athletic and so strong. Picking up the pace might not have any impact at all.

That said, we’re talking about a guy who will have to shave close to ten seconds — again, ten seconds! — off last year’s pace to comply with the pitch clock. That’s an awful lot. Yeah, it’s possible the pitch clock will have no effect on Chapman. I just have a hard time buying that when his pace is this extreme. It might cost him velocity, it might cost him command, it might cost him effectiveness. Some sort of adjustment could be in order, and it may have to be made fairly quickly.