College Football Veers From the Script

By

Darren Everson

Updated Oct. 11, 2010 10:06 a.m. ET

College football, more so than any other sport, thrives on perceptions. We live to make assessments based on limited information: Alabama is unstoppable.Denard Robinson is the runaway Heisman Trophy favorite.

ENLARGE

South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery scores a touchdown as Alabama's DeMarcus Milliner tries to stop him during their Saturday game.
Associated Press

And from time to time we love to be proven dead wrong.

It's been a while since the sport had a day like Saturday — one that upends so many of our beliefs about how the season will play out. The last time was arguably the fifth week of the 2008 season, when Oregon State shocked No. 1 Southern California and Mississippi won at No. 4 Florida. But Florida worked its way back into that season's national-title game. And then 2009 was one long, dull march to the Alabama-Florida Southeastern Conference title showdown, which was a letdown.

But now we have chaos, thanks principally to South Carolina's 35-21 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama. And the end of the Crimson Tide's 19-game winning streak was just part of the insanity Saturday:

The SEC's unprecedented run of four straight national titles is probably over.

Yes, No. 7 Auburn and No. 9 LSU remain undefeated, and Alabama, now ranked eighth, could climb the ladder still. But either Auburn or LSU must fall, since they face each other Oct. 23. Regardless, both still seem too limited in their passing schemes to beat Alabama — which, even with a sweep, will need help to get back to No. 2. Like we said, it's probably over.

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If it is, it shouldn't pass without mention. In the poll era, it was without question the most dominant run by one conference in the game's history. The last time a conference even won three straight titles, also the SEC, from 1978 to 1980. Even then Alabama split the first of those with Southern California. (Granted, conferences were smaller before the 1990s, and there were many more independent teams, which made it tougher for one league to rule.)

The irony, of course, is that the conference that's finally ending the SEC's streak is the SEC itself. The SEC's vaunted depth has been waning in recent years because of the decline of Tennessee, Georgia and (to a lesser extent) LSU, but it's been reestablished by the Tigers' thrilling upset at Florida and South Carolina's two-touchdown takedown of Alabama.

The SEC's reward: a new No. 1 whom Southern partisans have little respect for — OhioState.

Denard Robinson is not the Heisman frontrunner and it's hard to say who is.

The race has become a mess. There's obvious reason now to doubt Mr. Robinson, the Michigan quarterback, after his three-interception outing in a decisive home loss to Michigan State. Nebraska's Taylor Martinez, a similar dual-threat quarterback, has joined the discussion after running for 241 yards against Kansas State on Thursday. But because of how the Cornhuskers use him — he throws sparingly and has yet to get 20 carries in a game — his aggregate numbers are likely to be weaker other Heisman contenders.

Slideshow

See the best photos of the weekend's biggest games.

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has stopped running since hurting his thigh Oct. 2. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is off the radar for the time being, as the Broncos have entered the non-competitive portion of their schedule.

The most logical bet right now is Oregon running back LaMichael James, who now leads the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing yards per game (169.6). But Mr. James's total is still 143 behind Mr. Robinson's because Mr. James was suspended for Oregon's opener (after pleading guilty to physical harassment in the offseason). Can a running back win the Heisman if a quarterback outrushes him?

Florida State might be the best team in the Sunshine State.

The 1980s belonged to Miami, the '90s (despite Wide Right I and II) were Florida State's and the last decade was ruled by Florida. Who knows who'll be Florida's best team this decade, but for this year, at least, the Seminoles seem to be back on top.

They still have to beat Florida and coach Urban Meyer, who has won all five of their season-ending matchups by an average score of 36-12. But the game is in Tallahassee, and judging by their performances Saturday, the Seminoles are comparable to the Gators defensively and far ahead of them offensively.

In their 33-29 home loss to LSU, the Gators not only managed just 243 total yards but also gave up 9.3 yards per pass attempt to the Tigers' previously comatose passing game. (Only 10 teams in major college football average better than 9.3 on the season.) Meanwhile, the Seminoles — virtually forgotten after their blowout loss to Oklahoma on Sept. 11 — flashed a dominating ground game and vastly improved defense in their 45-17 rout at Miami. Although the Hurricanes accumulated 424 total yards, they completed less than half of their passes and averaged a measly 4.8 per attempt.

The Rose Bowl may have a tough decision to make.

Halfway through the season, the Rose is currently on track to lose both No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Oregon to the BCS national-title game. We know that the Rose would be obligated to fill one of those spots with a mid-major school like Boise State, in the likely event that such a team meets the automatic qualification criteria. But what would Pasadena do with the other berth?

The Rose might have to choose between its longtime partners, the Big Ten and the Pac-10. It would be a vexing choice, especially considering the likely candidates this year. Michigan State, Iowa and Stanford all would be profoundly disappointed at being passed over for their first Rose Bowl bid in years – they haven't been since 1987, 1990 and 1999, respectively – although the Cardinal and one of the two Big Ten teams could still land in a BCS bowl somewhere.

But there's a long way to go yet. Maybe Wisconsin will surprise Ohio State in Madison on Saturday, or Alabama will somehow work its way back into the race. As this weekend reminded us, nothing is guaranteed this year.

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