Black Ops 2 first-year unit sales could be down as much as 15% – analyst

Call of Duty sales are declining, despite the $500 million Black Ops 2 earned its first day at retail, according to Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia.

Speaking in an industry note, Bhatia said retail figures show a double digit decline year-over-year.

“Our checks show initial sales of CoD: Black Ops 2 at some retailers were down as much as 20%,” he said. “Subsequently, it appears sales of CoD did pick up a bit over the Thanksgiving holiday. We think the current sales curve suggests unit sales in its first year could ultimately be down 10 to 15% year-over-year.

“If we are right, this would be the second year in a row this critical franchise will have seen units decline. We estimate CoD generates 40 to 45% of the company’s EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) on an annual basis and it goes without saying that weakness in this franchise is a cause for concern.”

Bhatia said one reason for the decline should have been Halo 4’s launch the week prior, and another reason: customers waiting on holiday sales.