You Got Served: The Seahawks’ tempo problem

Happy Monday, friends. Obviously, I've been thinking a lot about Sunday's game, and over the weekend, I promised a few commenters that I'd dig deep into some Seahawks film.

I did so, and as the result of that work, there will be several articles this week. I had an interesting thought as part of the exercise.

Which game could I watch to see how well the Seahawks defended against a no-huddle offense? It seemed to be a really important question, but when I looked at their schedule, I was left scratching my head. None of the teams they played struck me as a very up-tempo team off the top of my head. Hmmm.

Let me start by saying why I think this is important. Last year's Seahawks team was pretty good, and it fell two points shy of advancing to the NFC championship game. The big improvement this year, though, came in the form of a couple of relatvely cheap free agent acquisitions.

For whatever reason, the pass rusher market was unexpectedly soft last offseason. That allowed the Seahawks, who had some short-term cap flexibility - as well as a reputation for being a player-friendly place to play - to buy low on short-term contracts for DEs Cliff Avril (two years) and Michael Bennett (one year). (The Broncos also benefited from that same market softness with their own acquisiton of Shaun Phillips, who came a lot cheaper than either Avril or Bennett did.)

Those signings left Seattle with an embarrassment of riches in their defensive line group, adding Avril and Bennett in with Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, and Clinton McDonald. This season, each of those seven players played between 45% and 58% of the Seahawks' defensive snaps.

I've said this a bunch of times before, but for the n00bs (LOL), the most athletically difficult thing to do in all of sports is to play on the defensive line in the NFL. You're asking very large men to get low, with their hand on the ground, and be explosive and quick, play after play. It takes a really rare athlete to be able to play a lot of snaps on the defensive line, and be continually effective.

This is why defensive line coaches are invariably loud drill sergeant types, and it's why one of the most talked-about evaluation points for defensive linemen is "motor." The coach is trying to get every ounce of effort out of guys who are required to expend more effort than anybody on any given snap. At some point, most defensive linemen get tired, and need to take a play or two off. It's best to make sure that those breaks come on the sideline,rather than on the field, and to facilitate that, teams like to use defensive line rotations.

The Seahawks, as you can infer easily enough from the participation information I gave above, substitute their defensive linemen quite liberally. That keeps them fresh, and helps them to be able to expend maximum effort, and to have maximum effectiveness on each snap.

People seem to think that the secondary is what causes Seattle's pass defense to be as good as it's been, but they're selling the front-four short. Even though they don't sack the QB all that much (they're about one-half of a standard deviation above the mean), they do generate a lot of pressure, and it usually comes at key times, like third and long.

So this is where tempo enters the story, because when the offense doesn't huddle or substitute, it prevents the defense from doing so either. That's especially true on the defensive line, which takes the longest of any position to run guys on and off the field.

Follow me here - the Seahawks' biggest advantage over most teams is the depth, and resulting effectiveness, of its defensive line. My belief is that the Broncos can mostly negate that advantage by playing the same way they always play.

So, yeah, you bet your ass I wanted to see how they did against no-huddle teams, and I was stuck for a few days on how to figure out which game to watch. I often hear Pat Kirwan talk about no-huddle stats that he has access to on the radio, but I've never found a good source of that information online.

Sunday, I was treadmilling it up, and thinking about how to solve my problem, and I decided on an approach. I took time of possession, converted it to seconds, and divided each team's number of seconds of possession by the number of plays that it ran this season. This doesn't tell me huddle vs. no huddle, per se, but it gives me a good estimate of typical tempo.

Here are the rankings that I came up with:

Rank

Team

Plays

Total Sec

Sec/Play

1

Philadelphia Eagles

1,054

25,344

24.05

2

Buffalo Bills

1,116

27,248

24.42

3

Denver Broncos

1,156

28,896

25.00

3

New England Patriots

1,138

28,448

25.00

5

Cleveland Browns

1,078

27,536

25.54

6

Jacksonville Jaguars

1,020

26,272

25.76

7

Minnesota Vikings

1,013

26,544

26.20

8

Baltimore Ravens

1,090

28,656

26.29

9

Washington Redskins

1,107

29,472

26.62

10

Green Bay Packers

1,074

29,184

27.17

11

Miami Dolphins

1,001

27,312

27.28

12

Houston Texans

1,089

29,760

27.33

13

Indianapolis Colts

1,023

28,496

27.86

14

Tennessee Titans

1,032

28,800

27.91

15

Cincinnati Bengals

1,097

30,688

27.97

16

Detroit Lions

1,102

30,832

27.98

17

New York Jets

1,020

28,720

28.16

18

New York Giants

988

27,888

28.23

19

Atlanta Falcons

1,024

29,040

28.36

20

Arizona Cardinals

1,037

29,616

28.56

21

Kansas City Chiefs

1,029

29,488

28.66

22

Oakland Raiders

1,000

28,704

28.70

23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

981

28,224

28.77

24

Chicago Bears

1,013

29,200

28.83

25

St. Louis Rams

968

27,920

28.84

26

Pittsburgh Steelers

1,023

29,648

28.98

27

New Orleans Saints

1,079

31,376

29.08

28

Dallas Cowboys

957

27,872

29.12

29

Seattle Seahawks

973

28,752

29.55

30

San Diego Chargers

1,060

31,664

29.87

31

San Francisco 49ers

961

29,360

30.55

32

Carolina Panthers

999

30,624

30.65

The Broncos tied with New England for third place in the NFL in seconds per play, after being 13th in 2012. I was not surprised to see the Eagles first, but I was pretty interested to see Buffalo second, particularly with the inexperienced QBs they used all year.

Seattle is 29th in the NFL in this measurement of tempo. They obviously like to play slow and shorten the game. What about their opponents, though? Well, disappointingly, this is what I found:

2013 Opponent

2013 Tempo Rank

Jacksonville Jaguars

6

Minnesota Vikings

7

Houston Texans

12

Indianapolis Colts

13

Tennessee Titans

14

New York Giants

18

Atlanta Falcons

19

Arizona Cardinals

20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

23

St. Louis Rams

25

New Orleans Saints

27

San Francisco 49ers

31

Carolina Panthers

32

You see that? The only top-12 tempo teams that the Seahawks played were weak sisters Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Houston. I know that none of those teams is a no-huddle team, and that each almost certainly has some inflation in this metric from the fact that they were playing from behind all the time.

I watched the Indianapolis game, and even there, there was little use of up-tempo tactics by the Colts. (There was a lot of other interesting stuff, though, which we'll touch on as the week progresses.)

The Seahawks saw very little no-huddle in 2013, and that's a big deal. It's not so much that I think they won't know how to deal with it; more that it will limit their ability to substitute within a series, and that that will wear down the front four players who are on the field.

Let me tell you about the Seattle front four, briefly. Their base guys are very good run players, and their pass rush guys are very good pass rushers. If you flip them, though, you can have a lot of success throwing against the run guys and running against the pass guys. That's one thing that the Colts did that was very noticeable.

DE Red Bryant is like a bigger and more run-focused Derek Wolfe. DT Brandon Mebane is a big plugger who has less quickness to rush the passer. DT Tony McDaniel is more of a tall, lean guy, and is best as a penetrator against the run. Those three players (all over 300 pounds) and DE Chris Clemons (or one of the other smaller DEs) are the base group.

On passing downs, the four down linemen tend to be Clemons (254 lbs), DE Cliff Avril (260), DE/DT Michael Bennett (274), and DT Clinton McDonald (297), with SLB/DE Bruce Irvin (248) mixing in there too sometimes.

That's a big difference, right? I watched Andrew Luck complete a slow-developing play-action deep ball for a TD against the big guys, because there was little pass rush. I also watched Donald Brown break off a big run up the middle on 2nd-and-20 against the pass rushers. You can really hurt the Seahawks by working against the specialty of whichever group is on the field at the moment.

The Broncos, of course, tend to come out for a series with a specific personnel grouping, and then stick with that group for the whole drive. That leaves Seattle to consider whether to change up their rotation. Personally, if I knew that I was likely to get a DL group stuck on the field for 8-10 plays at a time, I'd go away from having a run group and a pass group, and try to make the best two play-indifferent groups I could make. It bears watching what Seattle will do on that front.

Even if they do that, as long as the Broncos stick to their normal no-huddle procedures, it's likely that they'll be able to avoid a fresh four-man grouping of Bennett, Clemons, Avril, and McDonald on some key 3rd-and-8. That will give them a major advantage over any other team the Seahawks have faced this season.

Nobody is probably going to mention the tempo effect, and it will be subtle on gameday. Troy Aikman might say something like, the Seahawks usually get more pressure than they're getting today, and not mention why. Watch for tired and ineffective defensive linemen, though, and watch for Peyton Manning to press whatever matchup advantage he sees from the group that's stuck on the field.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

Very informative. Thanks for taking the time and for the sound analysis. Interesting stuff!

Posted by Jason on 2014-01-30 18:42:34

For the last ten minutes.

Posted by ronin_jubei on 2014-01-29 08:10:39

an interesting thought..

As you said it helps in two ways. forces a coach to think about having his guys take a dive becasue they would need clearance from TWO medical staffs an NFL guy and their team doctors..

but then it could actually be advantageous keeping a player out for an entire series.. just gives them a rest for the next time.. for a team that is loaded with DL types like SEA mot an issue..

For us losing pot roast for 8-12 plays could be an issue..

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2014-01-28 20:19:42

That is a great point. I had forgotten about that game. That is the closest comparison to this offense that anyone could find. IIRC, that game was right after Denver played NE. NE played the fasted no huddle I can recall against us but it was in NE while they played Seattle in Seattle.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-28 16:03:57

Seattle needs to get pressure up the middle which they have not traditionally done. Manning won't compromise the pocket moving left to right like Kaep did giving up easy edge strip sacks. If Peyton has room to step up in the pocket and get his throws out, it's going to be a bad day for Seattle on defense. This will be the story of the game. I expect Seattle to try a little bit of everything including blitzes. The weakness being that Denver will run 3, 4, 5 WR's on you and spread out the defense. Very quickly with motion, he will know if you are in cover 1, 2, 3 or playing man with a blitzer coming. If Seattle brings pass rush packages on 3rd down where they put 3 DE's on the field and McDaniels, he will check to the run in obvious pass situations. We've killed SD & NE like that the past two weeks. Seahawks have to disguise what they are doing. It's going to be a huge challenge for them all day. It will be fun to watch the chess match unfold.

Posted by bpc5180 on 2014-01-28 12:43:12

If you are interested in how they do, go watch New England play at Seattle from 2012. They have most of the same players but Browner is starting at RCB, and Michael Bennett wasn't on the team. NE broke off 85 plays on offense, and Brady threw for 400 yds. Wes Welker had a 40yd TD catch against Earl Thomas. Seattle came back to win when the Patriot defense couldn't protect a 13 pt lead in the 4th quarter, and gave up the game winner with a minute to go.

Posted by bpc5180 on 2014-01-28 12:11:53

This sounds like the talk that we were hearing before the KC games how they were going to kill Manning by the time the game ended. All we heard about was how they were leading the league in sacks, they had 3 probowlers rushing the QB and how many sacks did they get in 2 games? A big whopping zero.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-28 10:36:57

The funny part to me was the comment about our o-line wearing down by the fourth quarter. Our o-line, one of the best in the business, playing and training at altitude, wearing down at sea level? I will believe it when I see it.

Posted by Hank Mardukis on 2014-01-28 10:14:20

The bottom line is that you do substitute very liberally depending upon down and distance. Because Denver doesn't ever huddle or substitute personnel on drives, this will preclude Seattle from doing so either. They will be forced to go with one set at the beginning of the drive until it is completed. Just like the Hake blogger stated the other day someone like Bryant won't see the field much this game. Also the guys that are playing won't be as fresh because they won't be rotating out like they normally do. I don't know how to simplify the reasoning any more than this for you.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-28 10:12:34

It's actually a pretty easy fix. And for a league desperate to project the image of caring about player safety it would be a slam dunk. Just institute a new injury protocol rule. Every game would have a set of medical staff independent of the teams, and whenever a player comes of the field for an injury, the staff evaluates him. If they find anything they don't like, they can hold him out indefinitely for health concerns. But if they find he is perfectly healthy, than the protocol would still take long enough that the earliest a player would be eligible to return would be the next drive. The discouragement would be two-fold. One, the flopping player would be unavailable for the remainder of the drive. Two, they don't control the medical staff and can't rubber stamp his return to the field. That staff could very easily see something that concerns them and hold the flopping player out for the rest of the game. Such a system would decrease flopping and allow the NFL some manufactured PR about how much they "care about player safety."

Posted by Adrian Brody's O face on 2014-01-28 08:14:39

Stereotypes... it's been sunny and beautiful.

Posted by rodrig on 2014-01-28 03:35:15

That's a made up "fact."

Posted by rodrig on 2014-01-28 03:34:39

You definitely have hat football IQ dialed in.. Great article...

Posted by Russ Vanover on 2014-01-28 02:44:32

There you go. Thinking again. Pete is a cheat just like belicheat.

There will be DL type strewn all over the field giving them the chance to subsistute.. They will be told to lay down if they are tired.

Maybe someday as the no huddles increases league wide there will be penalties for this type of stuff. Or perhaps the only substitute you can make is for the injured player.

That would force coaches to use their timeouts to substitute.

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2014-01-28 00:41:07

Whatever. The problem , (for Denver) , is it's not as simple as having four guys who play run and four guys who pass rush. There are several who do both very well and they do not wear out over the course of the game because they basically have eight guys who can start. They will rotate and wear down the o-line. The fourth quarter will be a track meet to the QB as always.

Posted by richardfg7 on 2014-01-27 22:50:31

Play clock used per play doesn't truly account for it either, just look at our Broncos...we hurry up to the line but typically don't snap the ball until 7 sec or less on the play clock. We're ready to go super quick if we need to but usually Peyton takes the play clock down even though he hurried to the line and didn't allow the D to substitute.

Posted by c_style on 2014-01-27 22:23:46

You think we will see a lot seahawks d-linemen feign injuries?

Posted by Brian Chan on 2014-01-27 19:40:43

Amazing, isn´t it? One more game to go for the Broncos to be crowned as the most impressive and best offensive team ever in the NFL! (PS: did you know that Peyton´s 55 TDs surpass the other 31 teams total TDs -no more than 54?-)

Posted by Goéland on 2014-01-27 19:38:05

Don't hate logic downvoters.

Posted by Cainos on 2014-01-27 18:47:12

Call me pathetic, but that got me jazzed up.

Posted by magster on 2014-01-27 18:35:43

Yup but as the article also points out - even adjusted for Strength of Schedule Seattle's D comes out to 7th best. Ever.

Posted by Ctothenet on 2014-01-27 18:02:15

I'm fine with that, as long as we win. Kinda fun destroying narratives. :)

Posted by broncosmontana on 2014-01-27 18:00:03

I recommend everyone check out the Barnwell article just for the offensive performance chart alone. That really puts this offense in perspective.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-27 17:54:50

Awesome, Ted. Thanks for the insight. Go Broncos!

Posted by mikewyd on 2014-01-27 17:52:01

The best part of that Madden animation is the comments on youtube, specially Seattle fans complaining about DT catch being out of bounds.

Posted by Random Anonymous Coward on 2014-01-27 17:37:55

Now that was unexpected. Maybe Sherman should have been happier about the "sorry" receivers he has been facing. I heard one commentator on ESPN (forgot who it was) who stated that by denigrating the competency of a vanquished foe likewise denigrates a good performance against said foe. Love logic.

Posted by Cainos on 2014-01-27 17:27:17

Thanks for the link. Nice read. The idea of making fun of Franklin for wearing glasses is pretty funny. That is one scary looking dude.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-27 17:11:27

However, I think they'll be heading back home in a worse mood than when they left. I do recall Seattle having one of the highest suicide rates in the country, and this game might not help!

Interesting. I think we also need to account that SEA blitzed far less often this year than last... they most typically only rushed 4 this year, but still got great production from those guys up front (see analysis above), so they may be "coverage" now more than "blitzing". The no huddle may force them off that.

Posted by cjfarls on 2014-01-27 17:03:13

He adds new meaning to the term "dropping back to pass."

Posted by carsonic on 2014-01-27 16:59:03

Ditto what Goéland said.

Posted by carsonic on 2014-01-27 16:56:59

Good God, I hope the Sea-farts are taken out Soprano-style by one mister Peyton Manning and his henchmen led by the Thomas hitmen.

6 more days?!! I may not make it.

Posted by Orange_and_Blue on 2014-01-27 16:56:14

Finnegan...of all people....LOL

Posted by John Tomasik on 2014-01-27 16:53:00

What a fantastic read. Thank you for the link. Go Orlando!

Posted by Goéland on 2014-01-27 16:50:03

Going and looking at the numbers a little the common theme with teams like Cleveland, Minnesota and Jacksonville is a combination of teams that threw the ball probably more than they wanted and weren't very good at doing it. A lot of those teams that were high on the list are teams that had completion percentages in the 50's while we were at 68%.

Posted by IDBronco on 2014-01-27 16:32:44

Regardless, I read somewhere that the Jets facility is much better than the Giants'. where the Seahawks will be stuck.

They actually have blitzed a lot less this year than in the past, I'm sure as a result of getting the extra DEs. I think the Broncos will be fine, as long as they pass protect. They've been the best in the NFL at that, so if anybody can do it, they can.

Guys like that don't just grow on trees you know. You're talking about a once in a era kind of guy.

Posted by RyanHennigan on 2014-01-27 15:01:13

Luck against the Hawks gained 9 yards on 4 carries. That doesn't tell us if he extended many, or any, plays by running around behind the LOS.

Posted by bradley on 2014-01-27 14:59:15

I think that's probably true, and also explains why there's a relatively small variance between teams that run the no huddle extensively and those that really don't; run/pass ratio probably has such a large impact on pace that it obscures the impact of the no huddle and over the course of the season the overall run / ratio is probably not that different from team to team.

The problem is, to isolate the impact of running a no-huddle offense you'd have to use down by down data and filter out plays that proceed incomplete passes, timeouts, injuries, etc. I'm sure it could be done relatively easily, but I'm not aware of a source of down-by-down data to start with.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2014-01-27 14:58:25

double up vote?

Posted by Truman Jensen on 2014-01-27 14:55:31

Outstanding. The interesting part of the SEA defense for me is the safety play, and this ties into it. Chancellor is so good at filling in the run game and Thomas is so good in space that they can negate the mistakes of the guys around them. Seems like if J-Thomas, Welker, and Knowshon can exploit the edges, flats and underneath routes to keep the offense on schedule this is our game to lose. Having success there will open up all phases of the offense. Not much about Seattle's offense scares me, except not knowing exactly what Percy Harvin's role will be.

Posted by krissberg on 2014-01-27 14:55:26

Using that approach to calculate tempo, wouldn't the numbers be skewed by incomplete passes, as they would each add only 5 seconds or so to TOP? Could that explain the presence of teams like Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Minnesota near the top of this list?

Unfortunately, I believe the majority of the public would rather the inflammatory articles with much less reading and maybe a few pop-ups and more pics....

Posted by John Tomasik on 2014-01-27 14:52:00

The head rulez....

Posted by John Tomasik on 2014-01-27 14:50:26

I think we'd love to see the Seahawks bring the blitz with their run defense on the field. I'm sure Ted can get into specifics, but I'd start with simply targeting the area of the field vacated by whomever's blitzing. Throwing it in the flat to Knowshon Moreno and running screens to DT both come to mind as viable options as well.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2014-01-27 14:49:41

I think Broncos coaching staff is pretty sharp, and probably thinking along these lines, too. It's times like this I wish Ted was in the more public media, like, say, on TV, where more eyes or ears would get this kind of analysis rather than the dumb blather the public is getting instead.

Posted by underdog on 2014-01-27 14:49:13

Great stuff. Even handed analysis of this caliber will be a rare commodity this week.

Posted by Yahmule on 2014-01-27 14:47:18

This is too much research and analysis, Ted. I think the media and other bloggers widdle heads will hurt if they have to go this in-depth, and with logic to boot. Nice try, though. ;)

But seriously. good stuff. I still have no idea how this game is gonna go, but pieces like this sure do make me champing at the bit to get at it.

Posted by underdog on 2014-01-27 14:47:01

Nobody's too proud to do that in the Super Bowl.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2014-01-27 14:46:26

So it sounds like what we really need is an ultra-smart QB who spends a ton of time studying film and loves to use audibles to take advantage of personnel mismatches. Anyone know where we can find a guy like that?

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2014-01-27 14:45:36

Can't get enough Fat Man this week! Last week I wasn't feeling too excited about the super bowl (I mean, I'm certainly excited, but not THE BRONCOS ARE PLAYING IN THE SUPER BOWL IN 6 DAYS! excited). This week's feeling different, I think it's going to be a really fun week, and the more Fat Man I can read, the better.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2014-01-27 14:43:58

A couple of questions:

Can the Fleahawks send an extra man if Manning catches their pass-rush guys stuck on the field, and #18 decides to keep passing on them? If so, how can the Broncos optimize against that?

When the Colts beat the Fleahawks, was Luck scrambling a lot?

Again, thanks tons, Ted.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2014-01-27 14:40:12

Thank you, Ted.

Posted by Hank Mardukis on 2014-01-27 14:38:57

Superb. Nice analysis.

Posted by Justin Weber on 2014-01-27 14:33:38

Thanks Ted. Very interesting that they played no teams that 'no huddle.' I really like Denver's running game vs. Seattle.

Posted by Ralph_W on 2014-01-27 14:33:36

Pete Carrol isn't.

Posted by Adrian Brody's O face on 2014-01-27 14:30:43

I think the Seahawks are too proud to do that--fortunately.

Posted by secret circuit on 2014-01-27 14:27:38

Thank you. All week I have been listening to talking heads claim that Seattle's front four will eventually win in the trenches because of their ability to rotate players and keep them fresh. Every time I hear this, I just scratch my head and wonder when in the last 10 years has Peyton Manning ever allowed defensive fronts to rotate personnel against him. Personally, I expect to see a lot of faked injuries this game.

Posted by Adrian Brody's O face on 2014-01-27 14:26:57

I've been thinking that this is the biggest reason why the Broncos should be favorites. It's a huge advantage for Denver.

Posted by magster on 2014-01-27 14:26:57

Awesome info, Ted!

Posted by John Tomasik on 2014-01-27 14:26:12

Its times likes these I wish you were in Denver's front office or coaching staff, Dr. Bartlett. Well done, old salt.

Posted by broncosmontana on 2014-01-27 14:23:52

Awesome. Thanks Ted! Look forward to the contributions this week.

Posted by SammyDEEEEEE on 2014-01-27 14:20:20

Great post, Ted, thanks! Favorite line: "there will be several articles this week."