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2014.12.18

经济刊物

Panorama Coface: Insolvencies barometer

The number of insolvencies at the end of October stood at 63,002 companies, a figure down by - 0.9% over the last 12 months. This is the lowest level recorded since August 2013. However, the financial cost (total of trade payables over 12 month) has increased slightly (+0.5%), due to the recent insolvencies of medium-sized By Coface Group Economists enterprises (MSE). Has a cycle of fewer business failures finally begun? Restructuring in certain sectors such as automotives and transport, and the (relative) resilience of French consumption supports that assumption. Nevertheless, insolvencies are likely to remain at a very high level, as the growth in the number of new businesses since mid-2013 could, conver-sely, maintain the number of business insolvencies. Indeed, the first years in the life of a business are associated with a high risk of default. Coface remains cautious, forecasting a decline in company insolvencies for the whole of 2014 of -1.2% to 62,800 and of -0.5% in 2015 to 62,500 business insolvencies. We should not forget that between 2007 and 2008 the average number of company failures amounted to 50,100.