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Will he won’t he: If Trump scraps the Iran nuclear deal, it may shelve North Korean denuclearisation too

As the May 12 deadline approaches for US President Donald Trump to recertify the Iran nuclear deal, the international community is bracing itself. Trump had said in January that it was the last time he was certifying the deal, which is required to continue waiving American sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on the latter’s nuclear activities. He has long criticised the deal for being too weak, and now wants additional measures that will expand controls on Iran’s nuclear programme and even bring within their purview Iran’s ballistic missile development. Iran, however, has said that the deal can’t be renegotiated.

There’s no denying that the Iran nuclear deal was a grand diplomatic success in that it addressed international security concerns and gave Iran a chance at normalisation. And by all accounts Tehran has stuck to the deal’s stipulations. If Trump pulls out of it now, this could not only lead to a full blown crisis in the Middle East but also significantly diminish America’s credibility.

Trump is also slated to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. It’s difficult to see Trump convincing Kim to give up nukes after junking the Iran nuclear deal himself. After all, Kim would want solid guarantees from Trump before denuclearisation is put in the table. And if there is no guarantee that Washington will stick to its end of the bargain in an accord, Pyongyang will have no reason to denuclearise. Plus, Kim has seen what happened to Libya and Iraq, countries that gave up nuclear programmes. As some people call for Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for facilitating rapprochement between North and South Korea, killing the Iran nuclear deal can’t possibly contribute to making that case for the US president.

This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.