A decade of predictability under Dalton McGuinty ends on Jan. 26, when the Liberal premier relinquishes power to . . . the unknown.

All we really know, in the New Year, is how little we know about the year of political tumult ahead.

• Who will win? With seven former cabinet ministers vying to lead the governing Liberals — and no clear front-runner — the outcome remains unpredictable.

• What will they do in power? Even when the victor triumphs at Maple Leaf Gardens, we won’t have a clue as to their true intentions in government — whether centre-right, vaguely progressive or pure pragmatism. In the beauty contest that passes for a leadership campaign, the rivals are churning out a constellation of policy permutations that are largely window dressing — destined to be shed as soon as they face the fiscal and political constraints of power.

• When will they lose power? There will be a throne speech, followed by a budget speech, culminating in a fight to the finish in a minority parliament. Any combination of parties could pull the trigger at any time, leaving the next election date anyone’s guess.

• Where does this leave the opposition? For Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, 2013 could be a make-or-break year. The polls suggest his party is poised to win an election, though a majority remains elusive. Any Tory minority would lack longevity, with neither the Liberals nor the New Democrats likely to support its declared right-wing, anti-union agenda. If Hudak is displaced by a Liberal-NDP alliance in the Legislature, or defeated by voters in an election, the Tories could be headed for a leadership race of their own before the year is out.

Adding to all this political unpredictability are a couple of economic and labour wild cards:

Simmering tensions with the province’s public school teachers could erupt into a full-blown confrontation as the government imposes contracts through Bill 115 and union members consider retaliation. The dispute has devolved into a grudge match, with the government refusing to blink and some teachers’ unions determined to extract their pound of flesh — from students.

Against a backdrop of political upheaval and economic uncertainty, the machinery of government has been dormant since McGuinty announced his resignation in mid-October, proroguing the legislature and metamorphosing himself into a lame-duck premier.

A landmark report on reforming the social service system is now stuck in limbo. An “Action Plan” for the health-care system could get lost in the political shuffle. The transformation of public services prescribed by economist Don Drummond last February with great fanfare now lacks political direction.

All that could change once a new premier is chosen by Liberal delegates in January. But chances are the public, which has largely tuned out the leadership race, will continue to ignore it. The debate has been a staid family affair, with rival candidates earnestly praising one another like decorated soldiers at an armistice ceremony.

As the convention looms, the competing campaigns will recognize that soporific performances are a waste of everyone’s time — and the candidates’ money. In their public utterances and private conversations, the candidates have already hinted at where they’re coming from and where they’re going:

•Sandra Pupatello is the most interesting to watch onstage and on television. She has a bold, compelling speaking style that holds your attention. Policy, not so much. After leaving politics in late 2011, Pupatello came running back as soon as the premier quit. Her economic prescriptions consist largely of local boosterism and boastful globetrotting. She pointedly reminds people she’s from Windsor (translation: the only non-Toronto candidate), and that she was out of cabinet when bad things happened (translation: she missed 12 months out of the past 10 years of Liberal government).

•Kathleen Wynne is the most experienced and thoughtful to listen to — that is, if people are even listening. Reflective and articulate in conversation, Wynne has yet to inspire and excite people as a campaigner. She is often overshadowed on stage by other candidates. An unabashed progressive, she is now tacking to the fiscal centre, casting herself as a prudent steward of the province’s finances.

•Gerard Kennedy is the most experienced at leadership campaigns, having lost to McGuinty in 1996 and Stéphane Dion in 2006. With dozens of debates under his belt, he had a head start over his first-time rivals, and still benefits from the high name recognition befitting a frequent high-flyer. But among convention delegates Kennedy bears the burden of bad blood. Many party insiders have written him off as a quitter, a loner, a loser (he also lost his federal seat in the 2008 election).

•Eric Hoskins is the dark horse with the bright CV. Before joining cabinet, he co-founded a children’s charity and was a foreign policy adviser in Ottawa. Apart from his BSc and MD, he was also a Rhodes scholar and holds a PhD in public health (two rivals, Kennedy and Glen Murray, never graduated from university). Hoskins lacks strong economic credentials, but he can deliver a speech well and is improving rapidly as a debater — clearly a quick study. But even with all those degrees, there won’t be much time for a novice premier to learn on the job in a minority legislature.

•Glen Murray is a policy dilettante who reflexively inflicts his interminable wonkery on any interlocutor. Revelling in the spotlight, his secret weapon in the debates has been the time clock — limiting him (mercifully) to fixed 60-second orations as he stresses, implausibly, the importance of being a good listener. In person, however, he remains an unstoppable talker — a character flaw that will stop his campaign in its tracks.

•Charles Sousa looks and sounds like he came from central casting, blessed with a deep voice and avuncular manner. His low profile suggests he is running for future considerations — possibly the province’s next Treasurer. He is best known as the local MPP who pushed the costly cancellation of a controversial gas plant in Mississauga, making him an easy opposition target when the Legislature resumes.

•Harinder Takharis best-known as the first cabinet minister to be rebuked by Ontario’s integrity commissioner for failing to stay at arm’s length from his family business. Why this blemished record qualifies him for the province’s highest political office remains an enduring mystery.

Despite the speculation, a new Liberal premier may not be a hurry to fight a general election. Picking a cabinet, hiring new staff, preparing a Throne Speech, drafting legislation and cobbling together a budget all take time. A rookie premier, green Treasurer and reconfigured cabinet will face a steep learning curve. Post-prorogation, they will need to be on top of their files before facing tough questions from a pent-up opposition and impatient media. Pupatello and Kennedy don’t even hold seats in the Legislature and might first try to fight a byelection to test the waters.

There may be a strong impulse to hunker down and stay awhile. A new premier who is unknown and untested will face a stiff challenge from two battle-hardened opposition leaders, each with one campaign under their belts.

The uncertainty is heightened by the unknowable dynamic of the minority legislature. The NDP has done well wielding the balance of power over the past year, and seems disinclined to lose its leverage by triggering an early election. Horwath has hinted that she is in no hurry to bring down the Liberals and will try again to make minority government work. Hudak’s Tories remain mired in debt and may be content to keep their powder dry as they reorient themselves rightward with neo-con policies appealing to bedrock Tories.

Can it last? It depends on the next premier, his or her policies, and when Horwath or Hudak want an election. At that point, it will be up to you, dear reader, to write the final chapter for 2013.

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