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Welcome to South Sudan!

By Nicholas Kristof July 9, 2011 12:22 pmJuly 9, 2011 12:22 pm

A warm welcome to the world’s newest country, South Sudan, after a tumultuous independence struggle of more than 50 years that cost more than 3 million lives. South Sudanese deserve the celebration they’re enjoying in Juba and around the country.

Today’s peaceful separation is, in part, a triumph of diplomacy over war. Today’s ceremony arrived first of all only because of President Bush’s diplomatic surge, leading to the 2005 peace agreement between north and south. That was an extraordinary achievement and ended the brutal 20-year north-south war. But even a year ago, it looked as if there might be another war. Then, beginning last fall the Obama administration launched a diplomatic surge to give peace a chance. That worked, more or less: there are still risks of renewed war, fighting is underway now in South Kordofan and may spread to Blue Nile, and rival groups are also fighting within South Sudan. The situation is fragile and troubled — but still better than many expected a year ago, and it’s a reminder that diplomacy can be an incredibly powerful tool to avert humanitarian catastrophes.

Of course, South Sudan remains one of the poorest and least developed places on Earth. A girl in South Sudan is three times as likely to die in childbirth as to become literate. Even for those students who are in school, there is only one textbook for every four children. At least three-quarters of the country is illiterate, and there are significant ethnic tensions within the south. Corruption and mismanagement are huge problems in the South. Last year, in Lakes State north of Juba, I came across some barefoot Dinka villagers who had just killed a huge warthog with spears. They told me that there was no school or clinic anywhere in the region.

But South Sudan also has some things going for it. There is a real weariness with war (in north as well as south) and a desire for education and development. There are many Sudanese “lost boys” who have been educated in the U.S. and are eager to help their homeland. The country has lots of oil, if it can work out an agreement with the north on dividing oil revenues (the oil has to be exported through the north, for the time being). And the south also has lots of fertile land with plenty of water, suitable for agricultural development a time when commodity prices are rising. So in contrast to some landlocked African countries, South Sudan actually has a fighting chance of being in significantly better shape a decade from now than it is today. There’s still a risk of all-out war, and that’s why it’s so important to calm South Kordofan and Blue Nile and to work out an oil-sharing agreement. But South Sudan also has the best chance it has ever had of raising the living standard of its people.

I have no idea what will happen in the north, but maybe this will be a milestone there as well, just as Argentina’s democratization began after the country lost the Falklands War. President Bashir loses further credibility now that his policies have led to the dismemberment of the country, and some democratic groups from the north are sending goodwill messages to the south. This “Love From Sudan” message to the south is charming. And I’m particularly impressed by the pro-democracy group Girifna, which sent a delegation from Khartoum to promote reconciliation with the south. So maybe this will be a turning point for all of Sudan, north and south.

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About Nicholas Kristof

This blog expands on Nicholas Kristof’s twice-weekly columns, sharing thoughts that shape the writing but don’t always make it into the 800-word text. It’s also the place where readers make their voices heard.