A Proposal to Review How Geophysical Precursors
Can Help Predict Earthquakes
Christopher Gray
February 1995

IntroductionThroughout the world, devastating earthquakes occur with little or no advance warning. Some of these earthquakes kill hundreds of people. If the times, magnitudes, and locations of these earthquakes could be accurately predicted, many lives could be saved. This document proposes a review of how monitoring geophysical precursors can help in the short-term prediction of earthquakes. The proposed review will discuss the physical principles behind the monitoring of three common precursors and evaluate how accurate each monitoring is in predicting earthquakes. Included in this proposal are my methods for gathering information, a schedule for completing the review, and my qualifications.

Justification of Proposed ReviewOn the morning of April 18, 1906, the population of San Francisco was awakened by violent shaking and by the roar caused by the writhing and collapsing of buildings [Hodgson, 1964]. The ground appeared to be thrown into waves that twisted railways and broke the pavement into great cracks. Many buildings collapsed, while others were severely damaged. The earthquake caused fires in fifty or more points throughout the city. Fire stations were destroyed, alarms were put out of commission, and water mains were broken. As a result, the fires quickly spread throughout the city and continued for three days. The fires destroyed a 5 square-mile section at the heart of the city [Mileti and Fitzpatrick, 1993]. Even more disastrous was the Kwanto earthquake in Japan that devastated the cities of Yokohama and Tokyo on September 1, 1923 [Hodgson, 1993]. In Yokohama, over 50 percent of the buildings were destroyed [Bolt, 1993], and as many as 208 fires broke out and spread through the city [Hodgson, 1964]. When the disaster was over, 33,000 people were dead [Bolt, 1993]. In Tokyo, the damage from the earthquake was less, but the resulting fires were more devastating. The fires lasted three days and destroyed 40 percent of the city [Hodgson, 1964]. After the fire, 68,000 people were dead and 1 million people were homeless [Bolt, 1993]. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the Kwanto earthquake were two of the most famous and devastating earthquakes of this century. These earthquakes struck without warning and with disastrous results. If earthquakes could be predicted, people would be able to evacuate from buildings, bridges, and overpasses, where most deaths occur. Some earthquakes have been successfully predicted. One of the most famous predictions was the Haicheng Prediction in China. In 1970, Chinese scientists targeted the Liaoning Province as a site with potential for a large earthquake. These scientists felt that an earthquake would occur there in 1974 or 1975. On December 20, 1974, an earthquake warning was issued. Two days later, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck the Liaoning Province; however, further monitoring suggested a larger earthquake was imminent [Mileti and others, 1981]. On February 4, 1975, the Chinese issued a warning that an earthquake would strike Haicheng within 24 hours [Bolt, 1993]. The people in Haicheng were evacuated, and about 5.5 hours later, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake shook the city of Haicheng. If the people hadn't been evacuated, the death toll could have exceeded 100,000. Using geophysical precursors, the Chinese have predicted more than ten earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.0 [Meyer, 1977]. For example, the Chinese predicted a pair of earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 that occurred 97 minutes apart in Yunnan on May 19, 1976 [Bolt, 1993]. Despite these successes, the Chinese failed to predict the earthquake that struck the city of Tangshan on July 27, 1976; this earthquake killed 250,000 people and injured 500,000 more [Bolt, 1988]. This earthquake wasn't completely unexpected, but the Chinese believed it to be a few years away. Other earthquakes have been...

YOU MAY ALSO FIND THESE DOCUMENTS HELPFUL

...Research Proposal and ProposalReview
Part 1: Research Proposal
The Research Proposal is a formal paper in which the learner is given the opportunity to propose a research study to investigate a relevant health care topic of interest. You do not need to carry out the study. The Research Proposal should demonstrate understanding of the reading as well as the implications of new knowledge. The 10-12 page double-spaced paper (excluding title and reference pages) should integrate the course reading and class discussions into work and life experiences. It may include explanation and examples from previous experiences as well as implications for future applications. Your Research Proposal is expected to reflect master’s level thinking and reflection in addition to a solid demonstration of your understanding of statistical analyses.
The purpose of the Research Proposal is for you to culminate the learning achieved in the course by describing your understanding and application of knowledge in the field of biostatistics.
The Research Proposal should focus on real life, real time application of topics covered in this course; of both the uses you have seen and the uses you can envision.
You must pick one of the following topics for your research proposal:
a. A health disparity in the United States
You will draft a research...

...How To Write A Research Proposal
The starting point for every paper, be it a term paper or a finals’ paper, should be a thoroughly worked-out research proposal. Investing sufficient time and thought into writing a research proposal will yield a good return and can save you a lot of time, confusion and disappointment when actually writing your paper. A research proposal serves several purposes: - It gives an overview of the relevance and objective of a research project. - It gives an overview of the content, the procedure and the timing of a research project. - It shows whether a research project is manageable in scope and timing. A research proposal has six key components: - A title page - An abstract which summarizes the project - A detailed description of the project - A time schedule for the project - An overview of the structure of the paper (Gliederung) - References The following sections give an overview of each component. Although each research proposal should follow this guideline, you will find that not all sections are (equally) applicable for each project, since every research project is different. For instance, a paper that focusses on literature review or a theoretical analysis requires a somewhat different research proposal than a paper that reports an empirical study. Identify the aspects in each section that are relevant to your...

...THE THESIS PROPOSAL
In ordinary terms, your proposal explains what you want to study, how you will study this topic, and why this topic needs to be studied.
PARTS OF THE THESIS PROPOSAL
TITLE
• State the tentative title of your proposal. • The title should give a clear indication of the topic being studied.
EXAMPLE: From the thesis of Kimberly Manabat
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY: • It is in this section that you will orient the reader to the problem you seek to solve. • What is the aim of your study.
EXAMPLE: From the thesis of Kimberly Manabat
Example: (Andrea Cervantes’ thesis) The state of secondary science education in the Philippines in the present is staggeringly low. As such, many organizations and institutes have developed science teaching workshops, which also involved dissemination of science manipulatives such as kits. Yet, many problems arise about using these teaching materials. Many teachers feel intimidated about using these teaching materials. Also, many of them have a hard time including performance of experiments in class. Precious time intended for discussion might be wasted in setting up experiments.
Does a physics manipulative need proper organization and housing to make teachers teaching high school physics efficient?
PROBLEM STATEMENT:
• The statement of the problem is what the researcher aims to discover or establish. • The researcher should...

...Running head: HOW TO WRITE A RESEARCH PROPOSALHow to Write a Research Proposal:
A Formal Template for Preparing a Proposal for Research Methods
Insert Name Here
Dallas Baptist University
1
HOW TO WRITE A RESEARCH PROPOSAL
2
Abstract
The abstract is a brief summary of the entire proposal, typically ranging from 150 to 250 words.
It is different from a thesis statement in that the abstract summarizes the entire proposal, not just
mentioning the study’s purpose or hypothesis. Therefore, the abstract should outline the
proposal’s major headings: the research question, theoretical framework, research design,
sampling method, instrumentation, and data and analysis procedures. A good abstract accurately
reflects the content of the proposal, while at the same time being coherent, readable, and concise.
Do not add any information in the abstract that is not previously discussed throughout the
proposal. Notice this paragraph is not indented; the abstract will be the only paragraph in the
entire proposal that is not indented. Because it highlights the entire proposal, it would be wise to
wait and write the abstract last. This way, one merely has to reword information that was
previously written.
HOW TO WRITE A RESEARCH PROPOSAL
3
How to Write a Research...

...﻿What is a literature review?
The aim of a literature review is to show your reader (your tutor) that you have read, and have a good grasp of, the main published work concerning a particular topic or question in your field. This work may be in any format, including online sources. It may be a separate assignment, or one of the introductory sections of a report, dissertation or thesis. In the latter cases in particular, the review will be guided by your research objective or by the issue or thesis you are arguing and will provide the framework for your further work.
It is very important to note that your review should not be simply a description of what others have published in the form of a set of summaries, but should take the form of a critical discussion, showing insight and an awareness of differing arguments, theories and approaches. It should be a synthesis and analysis of the relevant published work, linked at all times to your own purpose and rationale.
According to Caulley (1992) of La Trobe University, the literature review should:
· compare and contrast different authors' views on an issue
· group authors who draw similar conclusions
· criticise aspects of methodology
· note areas in which authors are in disagreement
· highlight exemplary studies
· highlight gaps in research
· show how your study relates to previous studies
· show how...

...HOW CAN I WRITE A GOOD LITERATURE REVIEW?
You should use the literature to explain your research - after all, you are not writing a literature review just to show what other researchers have done. You aim should be to:
➢ Show why your research needs to be carried out,
➢ How you came to choose certain methodologies or theories to work with,
➢ How your work adds to the research already carried out, etc.
What is the purpose of a Literature Review?
The purpose of a literature review is to convey to the reader what knowledge and ideas have been established on a topic and what are the strengths and weaknesses. The literature review allows the reader to be brought up to date regarding the state of research in the field and familiarizes the reader with any contrasting perspectives and viewpoints on the topic. There are good reasons for beginning a literature review before starting a research paper. These reasons include:
❖ To see what has and has not been investigated.
❖ To develop general explanation for observed variations in a behavior or phenomenon.
❖ To identify potential relationships between concepts and to identify researchable hypotheses.
❖ To learn how others have defined and measured key concepts.
❖ To identify data sources that other researches have used.
❖ To develop...

...Article 1 : Writing a Literature Review
What is a Literature Review?
A literature review is a survey and discussion of the literature in a given area of study. It is a concise overview of what has been studied, argued, and established about a topic, and it is usually organized chronologically or thematically. A literature review is written in essay format. It is not an annotated bibliography, because it groups related works together and discusses trends and developments rather than focusing on one item at a time. It is not a summary; rather, it evaluates previous and current research in regard to how relevant and/or useful it is and how it relates to your own research.
A Literature Review is more than an Annotated Bibliography or a summary, because you are organizing and presenting your sources in terms of their overall relationship to your own project.
Purpose
A literature review is written to highlight specific arguments and ideas in a field of study. By highlighting these arguments, the writer attempts to show what has been studied in the field, and also where the weaknesses, gaps, or areas needing further study are. The review should therefore also demonstrate to the reader why the writer’s research is useful, necessary, important, and valid.
Questions a Literature Review Should Answer:
Asking questions such as the...