Student Loan Debt Crisis: How’d We Get Here and What Happens Next?

The amount of student loan debt and the rate of delinquency have been climbing for years now. If it seems like every new statistic is worse than the last, that’s because it is. Credit bureau TransUnion says more than half of student loan accounts are in deferral status, and FICO Labs found that a rising number of those debtors aren't paying those loans back.

The amount of student loan debt and the rate of delinquency have been climbing for years now. If it seems like every new statistic is worse than the last, that’s because it is. Two studies released this week are no exception.

Credit bureau TransUnion says that in the past five years, the average student loan debt each borrower carries has risen 30% to $23,829. More than half of student loan accounts, which add up to more than 40% of the total dollars owed, are in deferral status. This is just a temporary reprieve; students can defer for only a few years before they have to repay.

The trouble is, many of them aren’t doing so. FICO Labs found that delinquencies rose by 22% in five years. For the newest group of loans it studied, delinquency rates are 15.1% — higher than the 11% cited by the Federal Reserve in a November report. Like the Fed’s study, the FICO analysis doesn’t include loans that are in a deferred status — which means the number of people who can’t afford to pay back that money may be almost twice as high as what the official delinquency rates reflect.

This situation obviously can’t be sustained over the long term. “I think a few more years and it’s going to be a general crisis,” says Barry Bosworth, an economist at the Brookings Institution. Interest rates are unusually low right now; when they rise, more borrowers who were just keeping their heads above water are liable to become delinquent.

A Perfect Storm

The aggregate amount of debt has soared because many people decided to go back to school after being laid off, says Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting for TransUnion’s financial services unit.

In today’s economy, people increasingly need a college degree to be viewed as employable. The New York Times says this “degree inflation” comes at a serious cost to students. “In the late 1970s, the median wage was 40% higher for college graduates than for people with more than a high school degree; now the wage premium is about 80%,” it says.

And it’s getting more expensive to get those degrees. “We’re pushing more and more of the cost onto the students,” Bosworth says.

This year, the cost of tuition and fees at public four-year colleges went up nearly 5%, according the to the College Board, even as assistance fell. “The rapid growth in federal aid — which for a few years actually reduced the average net prices students paid — has ended,” the group said in an October report.

Waiting on a Turnaround

“It’s unclear whether or not it’s bottomed out,” says Frederic Huynh, senior principal scientist at FICO. One barometer of what future delinquency rates will look like is the credit quality of the people getting student loans today, he says. “If we look at some of the more recent vintages… more consumers have lower FICO scores,” which means more delinquencies.

The tide isn’t going to turn until the labor market for new graduates improves, Huynh says. New graduates need to secure a stable and steady paycheck, he says, but half of college graduates today are either underemployed or don’t have a job at all.

And even an improving job market isn’t going to help the nearly 30% of students who take out loans and never got a degree. This subset of borrowers will continue to struggle, Becker says, because they’ll be relegated to lower-earning jobs while saddled with the same level of debt as their more upwardly-mobile peers “The non-payment rates for people who don’t finish school is really high,” he says.

Another wrinkle is that the jobs today’s grads are in search of might not open up as quickly as everyone would like, because more parents are delaying their own retirements — often to help pay for their kids’ school loans. “It’s kind of a vicious cycle,” Becker says.

The Ripple Effect

The fallout from falling behind on a student loan can literally last for decades. Unlike most other debts, student loans are almost impossible to discharge in bankruptcy. Most student loans are federal loans, and the government can garnish paychecks, withhold tax refunds, and pursue other means for getting their money back.

There’s also the negative effect a default can have on a person’s credit score: Huynh says a person with a good credit history who stops paying their student loans could see their credit score drop by as much as 100 points. For instance, Becker says, for a car loan, “you might be paying 12% or 15% instead of 4%.”

The broader economic implications are troubling. Graduates struggling to dig out from a mountain of student debt also tend to put off getting married, buying homes, and having kids. And since a bigger chunk of their income will go towards servicing the mortgages or car loans they are able to obtain at higher rates, they’ll have less spending power when they do eventually buy big-ticket items like homes and cars. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau student-loan ombudsman Rohit Chopra warned last year that the magnitude of student loan debt could even hold back a housing recovery. “Student-loan borrowers are sending big payments every month to their loan servicers rather than becoming first-time homebuyers,” he said.

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from scams. thanks as you read the greatest testimony of my life.

My Name Is Mrs Richard Carey I want You all To be careful there.nobody can help you here or even suggest how you can get financial help.any answer of a loan lender to your question,you MUST ignore,because they are SCAMS…real SCAMS…i was a victim of which i was ripped thousands of dollars…well thank God for a Lauren Loan firm,I was referred to by my cousin,who is by name,Mr.Robert Paul Of pay day loan firm.They made my life a valuable one,and gave it a meaning.I was approved loan of $90,000.00 USD AND IN 28 HOURS after meeting up to their necessary requirements,my loan was deposited in my bank account.Though I was very nervous with the loan firm at the first place due to my previous bad experiences,especially when the issue of me settling the transfer charges came up,I hold on to my faith due to the fact that my relative referred me,got it cleared,and as God should have it.little did I know that my financial shortcomings has come to a final HALT .If not for that quick referral from a relative of that genuine source ,I would have regretted my total life,because at that point in time I just divorced the father of my daughter,and my daughter (Michael) was faced with a ” between life and death ” situation ..I was faced with her hospital bills and was also faced with foreclosure at my apartment.Details of the GOD SENT and RELIEVING source won’t be disclosed to you for now, for fear of impersonation ( because it has being discovered that some persons are not really in need of financial help,but are there to impersonate real loan lenders through their phone numbers and email accounts,and acting to be them where necessary to those in real need)…I couldn’t comment on your post because it was a public place and I fear you would fall into the hand of all these fraudulent loan officers (even in US) like how they ripped me off.You must be able to convince me real hard,and provide good proofs,before I can give you the full details of this legitimate loan officer..Their charge is very affordable and reliable compare to many out there,their interest rates just 2%,little documentation,and little credit check(irrespective of your credit score,but you MUST have a good and liable income source) His Name is MR TONY HARTON, Feel free to email him at his via Email:tonyharton007@gmail.com”and you will be free from scams. thanks as you read the greatest testimony of my life.

I’m Berit Earnest by name. I live in USA, i want to use this medium to alert all loan seekers to be very careful because there are scammers everywhere.Few months ago I was financially strained, and due to my desperation I was scammed by several online lenders. I had almost lost hope until a friend of mine referred me to a very reliable lender called Mrs. Alison Wolfberg who lend me an unsecured loan of $60,000 under 3hours without any stress. If you are in need of any kind of loan just contact him now via: wolfbergloanfirm@live.com I‘m using this medium to alert all loan seekers because of the hell I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent lenders. And I don’t wish even my enemy to pass through such hell that I passed through in the hands of those fraudulent online lenders,i will also want you to help me pass this information to others who are also in need of a loan once you have also receive your loan from Mrs. Berit Earnest, i pray that God should give him long life.

I am a Registered and Licensed Money Lender/investor who gives out loans of various kinds such as Payday, Personal, Mortgage, Business, Auto Loans to Serious and Interested People at a very low Cost affordable rate. Contact me today via email at to get started milton_norris@live.com

Thanks be to God almighty for her kindness and goodness upon my life what will i have done if not for Mrs Linda Lee, who i will always see as a God sent woman who God have chosen to help people who are in financial need like me a poor widow who was short listed and short of funds a woman who have two kids and has so many responsibilities a woman who lost her husband and has bills to pay consisting of both house rent and electricity bills and was scammed the sum of $2,800 usd i never believed that there is still a legit loan company online who still believe that people are in financial problem and are ready to help after been scamed $3,800 i never believed that there is still a legit loan company until i came across a post that was posted by one Mrs Rose on this same forum she explained how she got her loan from Mrs Linda Lee who is the CEO LINDA LEE LOAN FIRM, by then i was having no more option rather than to try my luck for the second time to avoid losing my home(accommodation)so i think about it i came to a conclusion that i should try again so i contacted Mrs Linda Lee via email they attended to me in less than 22hours i applied for a loan sum of $45,000 usd the loan was approved with low interest rate and after the processing i got my loan in my bank account so i want to quickly use this medium oppurnity to advise any loan seeker out there to contact Mrs Linda Lee via email....lindaleeloanfirm001@hotmail.com she will definitely give you a loan you require without any stress once again thanks be to God for her mercy upon my life..