Donald Trump’s campaign might upend Mexico's entire political system

Republican
US presidential nominee Trump speaks during the first
presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New
York.Thomson
Reuters

Hillary Clinton's performance in the first presidential debate
buoyed hopes of her victory in November, especially in Mexico,
where her performance raised spirits and the value of the peso.

But win or lose, there is still the potential for Donald Trump,
who has made having Mexico pay for a wall on the southern border
a central campaign promise, to have a lasting impact on the
Mexican political landscape.

The Republican candidate has already caused turmoil in the
sitting Mexican government.

In the wake of Trump's visit with current President Enrique Peña
Nieto in early September, Luis Videgaray, one of Peña Nieto's
closest advisers and reportedly the person who suggested Trump's
visit, stepped down as finance minister.

As Trump has tapped into a dissatisfaction with the political
status quo in the US, his stance toward Mexico appears to have
bolstered the position of a leftist Mexican presidential
candidate who has the same anti-establishment appeal.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, often referred to as AMLO, has twice
run for Mexico's presidency, losing narrowly in 2006 and again by 6 points to Peña Nieto in 2012 — and he's set
to run again in 2018.

'If Trump were to win ... Lopez Obrador would have a field
day"

AMLO's party, the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena
— which he formed in 2014 after breaking with the leftist Party of the
Democratic Revolution — got a boost from Mexico's midterm
elections in June, in which the party won 18% of state-level votes nationwide (but
no states), a number of local elections, and Mexico City's vote for a constitutional assembly.

Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador, president of the National Regeneration
Movement (MORENA) party, delivers a speech to supporters, in
Mexico City, June 26, 2016.REUTERS/Ginnette Riquelme

"Lopez Obrador was the big winner in the last election cycle,
because they had so much to gain," David Shirk, a professor at
the University of San Diego, told Business Insider. "They were a
nonpresence, and they basically were able to sap a whole bunch of
strength away from the PRD, and no other party made as large a
gain as in the election as Lopez Obrador."

The shortcomings of the PRI and other mainstream parties, coupled
with Trump's incendiary rhetoric about Mexico, has burnished
AMLO's appeal as an outsider willing to challenge the status quo
and as a defender of Mexicans.

"If Trump were to win the U.S. elections, Lopez Obrador would
have a field day," Miami Herald columnist Andrés Oppenheimer
wrote in June, after the PRI's electoral
drubbing. "Lopez Obrador’s fiery speeches against Trump’s
Mexico-bashing would rally many Mexicans behind him."

Recent presidential polls have found AMLO in contention in
Mexico's multiparty system.

An early August poll by Mexican newspaper Reforma found his support at between 24% and 29%,
comparable to the 24% to 27% support for Margarita Zavala of the
rightist National Action Party.

An August poll by Mexican newspaper El Universal found him with a
36% approval rating, while another round of
polls that month found him with 24.8% to Zavala's 25.99%

A recent Reforma poll found him trailing Zavala by
only 2 percentage points, and other surveys have put him in first
with as much as 28%, according to The Wall Street Journal.

If Trump were to take the White House in November and doesn't
moderate his tone on Mexico, chances are AMLO would benefit.

"If the negative rhetoric on Mexico would continue after the US
election, it would definitely bolster Andrés Manuel López
Obrador’s competitiveness because he would be framed as more
nationalistic and more capable candidate to really fight back
that negative rhetoric that has been taking place in the US
against Mexico," Carlos Petersen, Eurasia Group's Latin America
associate, said in August.

Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador, former presidential candidate of the
Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), gives a thumbs up to his
supporters at Mexico City's main plaza, the Zocalo, September 9,
2012.AP Photo/Christian
Palma

Moreover, if Mexico's current government continues to be plagued
by corruption allegations and if the current security situation doesn't
improve, Mexico's established parties will likely have more
trouble steering voters away from him.

"In two years, if incumbents haven’t done more to address
Mexico’s corruption and violence problems, it will be very hard
to scare people with the prospect of a Lopez Obrador victory,"
former US Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza told Oppenheimer
in June.

"People will say, 'Are you telling me that I should be scared of
Lopez Obrador, when you haven’t done the things that you should
have been doing for years?'"

'He is his own man'

Unlike Trump, AMLO has held public office but spent little time
in the private sector, but in other aspects, the two are fitting
counterparts.

"I guess the main point of distinction that sets AMLO apart is
that he is, in some ways he is like Trump," said Shirk, who is
also the director of USD's Justice in Mexico program. "He doesn't
play according to the traditional rules. He is his own man, and
his platform is really about him as much as they try to make it
seem otherwise."

"It's basically that [AMLO] is a maverick," Shirk added, "and he
is going to stand up for the people and he's specifically going
to stand up for the poorest of the poor, and I think he would if
he gets elected."

Donald
Trump.Joe Raedle/Getty
Images

Both have struck populist stances on economic issues.

While Trump has targeted NAFTA in his campaign, AMLO has railed against constitutional reforms (the most polarizing
of which opened the country's oil industry to private investment)
enacted under Peña Nieto, promising to reverse them.

And as Trump has been buffeted by reports of financial
impropriety and other misdeeds, AMLO has been accused of
less-than-honest dealings, most recently with reports finding he
failed to disclose his ownership of two
Mexico City apartments — nothing illegal, but a potential blow to
efforts to separate himself from Mexico's establishment.

And like Trump, AMLO is competing to lead a country where
economic fortune has divergent for people at the top and the
bottom. "Right now the situation in Mexico is very
interesting because you have a population that is very divided,"
Petersen said.

"You have one part [of the country] that has benefited a
lot from these [current] policies and another that hasn’t really
seen any benefits," Petersen added. "And that’s what the political environment
shows."

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox has even drawn a
comparison between Trump and AMLO, calling them both "loudmouths."

EPN Trump slump ≠ AMLO Trump bump

While AMLO may be trying to play to a broader constituency —
striking a more conciliatory tone in late summer, seeking out
alliances with other parts of Mexico's political left and easing
his stance on some of Peña Nieto's reforms, as Carin Zissis of
the Americas Society/Council of the Americas noted in early August — there are reasons to
doubt he would triumph in a presidential election that is still
more than a year away.

"That is just name recognition," Viridiana Rios, a global
fellow at Washington, DC's Wilson Center, said of AMLO's
performance in recent polls. "[It's] clear people know him more
thanothers just because he has been running for
office for so long."

"Whoever is against Peña has a chance now," Rios told Business
Insider. "That is AMLO but also PAN and everybody."

Lopez Obrador benefits from positioning himself against the status quo, with which many
Mexicans have grown frustrated. Moreover, that he is the first presidential candidate to secure a
place on the ticket of a main party also likely boosted his
image. Whether that translates into votes in 2018 is a different
matter.

Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador, president of the National Regeneration
Movement (MORENA) party, is greeted by supporters in Mexico City,
June 26, 2016.REUTERS/Ginnette
Riquelme

"Lopez Obrador is necessarily limited to a very specific segment
of the electorate, and I don't know that Lopez Obrador will ever
be able to pull more than ... 30% of the vote," Shirk told
Business Insider.

Some of AMLO's positions could turn off parts of Mexico
electorate. He has downplayed the importance of issues like
legalizing abortion and gay marriage and spoken of gentle treatment for those implicated in
corruption.

"With respect to AMLO I would only say he does not represent a
progressive, smart left but an authoritarian, old one," Rios
argued. "His platform does not represent younger, more creative,
educated and innovative Mexican voters," Rios said.