Enough Fallen BRICs?

Over six Months ago we published, at this site, an article Falling
BRICs where we have shown, clearly, that INR was destined to fall.
Longer term (40 years) chart history was also provided as a background
to indicate how destructive Indian Monetary policies were for Indian Rupee
(USDINR).

We do not consider ourselves experts on Indian or BRIC Economies, even though
closely following the news from those countries. All/Most of our conclusions/forecasts
are based on predictive powers of our tools, which are based on worldwide
capital flow cycle analysis.

As indicated above these currency pair forecasts are helpful and linked by
money flows to other securities. Therefore the weakness in GOLD prices, for
example, was pretty predictable if our INR forecast was correct. Of course
size of the move cannot be directly read from these charts and requires use
of other tools such as FIBO and AP ( Attraction Point analysis TM). From what
we read in the above graph, we view the near future as follows:

STOCKS

The money flows favor Dollar for a while longer, which could flow into bonds
or stocks.

Given severely, short term, oversold conditions in bonds, we think stocks
may have some more downside into July. Any move to new highs would negate
this outlook.

BONDS

Regardless whether they rise or not, we expect considerable flow of funds
into what looks as attractive priced (opposite to YIELD) bonds. Many of the
emerging market bonds have lost 13-30% in last 3-5 months and yields backed
up to 5-7% range. I have advocated generational rise in rates already in 2008
article Interest
Rate Bottom (Remember 30 year bonds have been undercut by only small amount
in 2012).Therefore let's remember where the rates are going in general.

GOLD

It looks like, gold is washed out, but it could struggle into end of 2013
before bull renews itself.

Those low on GOLD in their portfolio need to start buying now, regardless.

Better yet, I would buy GDX/GLD as a proxy of future gold rise, as this ratio
may bottom sooner.

DOLLAR

For us Dollar was bullish since 2008 and we never changed that opinion, even
though internet is full of forecasts predicting Dollars Imminent Demise. Dollar
Demise Will come , but it is not here yet.

Meanwhile KING DOLLAR is on the march.

CRUDE OIL

As long as economy is growing, even slowly, demise in OIL is hard to see.
This is highly manipulated commodity and it's direction is heavily influenced
by geopolitics and money flows into Dollar and GOLD as those often compete
for the primary destination of the capital.

If you are not scared geopolitics and can watch it, then I would suggest NATGAS/OIL
purchase as this ratio is badly oversold.

In short... I was supposed to be a theoretical physicist
(Russia+Jerusalem Hebrew University, MS Physics, with distinction, toyed with
QUARKS). Somewhere on the road to PHD I have discovered, first the Computers
- at Carnegie Mellon University (MS EE, Fathered UNIX, adopted WINDOWS), and
second Finance on Wall Street.President ITI,(Computer/Finance Consulting Firm)
Consulted AT&T,IBM,SUN,CITIBANK,JP MORGAN, LEHMAN, MICROSOFT. Designed/implemented
Trading Systems - BLOOMBERG LLP. There is nothing more to say professionally
speaking.

Please Note: The opinions expressed here are only for education
purposes and do not constitute the advice in any shape of form.