But a game lost from a seemingly unassailable position, and a week on the sidelines with a shoulder injury? When star NFL cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie was staring out the window during maths class, or perhaps idly taking three hours to scratch his full name into his desk, I bet he didn’t think this would be the result.

But why worry when, as I promised at the end of the last post, even a team that gets to 0-16 has a chance of making the finals? (Microscopic font: in ridiculously unlikely circumstances.) First, to set the scene: the league currently has 18 teams, who each play 22 games (cumulative research time: 30 seconds). This means the home and away season features 22×9 = 198 matches, needing 198 winners (cumulative research time: 1 minute). For the purposes of this experiment, I’m ignoring draws, docked points, Waverley Park lights-off scenarios, alien invasion, etc. Continue reading →