Where You Definitely Don't Want To Be On Black Friday -- The Mall

A recent survey by AccentureAccenture shows that the appeal of Black Friday has reached a five-year high. That same survey also shows that U.S. consumers intend to spend 11 percent more this holiday season.

If you are okay with spending 11 percent more on holiday gifts, you should join the throngs of people ringing the register on Friday. If you are in the market for deals, then skip the store and spend the day with family or friends.

Black Friday has become a cultural phenomenon. Some see it as the official start to the holiday season, even though holiday merchandise has been on the racks and on sale weeks before Black Friday – some stores were preparing for the holiday season in late October. Retailers know that Christmas displays get consumers in the holiday giving (and spending) spirit. This year, the early displays took on extra importance because of the short selling season. Consumers and retailers must contend with 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas; the fewest days since 2002.

Along with the early displays, retailers already have pushed deals and discounts. The early deals highlight the fool’s shopping day known Black Friday. The day takes on nearly manic proportions as consumers stampede into stores, hunting for one-day only bargains. Retailers leak their Black Friday deals to web sites, send postcards and flyers to announce one-day only offers, and flood consumers’ inboxes with teasers. Such efforts have conditioned consumers to believe that holiday shopping season automatically means huge discounts.

A closer look, though, reveals those deals are not all that special, deep, or unique. Electronics can draw people to the store and get them to open their wallets, but the technology behind those electronics is usually older and slower. Toys can offer another attraction. But, for holiday staples like Legos and Barbie, and often hot-ticket items, like the new Xbox One and PlayStation 4 gaming consoles, the deals are better before Black Friday, after Black Friday, or online.

This lack of Black Friday specialness can be attributed to a supply-and-demand issue. Consumers have created the demand and retailers control the supply. On Black Friday, retailers have virtually no incentive to deeply discount merchandise because consumer demand already exists. Store managers know shoppers are full of holiday spirit. Nothing says “bah humbug” more than going home empty-handed.

For those who want real deals – not loss-leader deals where stores give away five big-screen TVs, at $50 apiece, to people who have been camped out in front of the store for 48 hours – my advice is to wait two weeks. Those doorbuster sales often are available only to the first few people through the door, and the teaser serves to get shoppers in the store early, before they spend their money elsewhere, without offering them much value for doing so.

But economic conditions related to a job-less recovery, the slashing of the food stamp program, and the government shutdown will contribute to consumers keeping their wallets closed. By the December 14-15 shopping weekend, retailers will know whether or not customers have been opening their wallets, and will react accordingly with deeper discounts.

Look for deeper discounts by that weekend on items like newer laptops, wearable technology, and e-readers. Laptop sales will be lagging, partially due to the popularity of tablets and the internet capabilities of new gaming systems; e-readers generate most of their profits through book sales and subscription services, so it’s imperative retailers get them off the shelves at any price; and wearable technology, like the Nike + iPod sport kit, simply is not in high demand this holiday season.

Instead of shopping on Black Friday, consider extending the holiday family gathering beyond turkey and football. Many salons offer discounts on Black Friday, as it’s traditionally a slow day, as do many zoos and museums.

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