And we are finally down to eight players on the men’s side and the most important clay court event in the world, the French Open. And it’s quite an “Elite Eight” with no fewer than six of the Top 10 players in the world plus the fast-rising Ernests Gulbis and my man Gael Monfils who’ll lace up tomorrow.

First to who isn’t there. The only real surprise of the final eight is the absence (3rd time in last 4 Slams) of Roger Federer. The Swiss had a good crack at Gulbis yesterday but a blown overhead that would have put him up and out of reach by two sets cost him oh so very dearly. Forget the momentum-changing fourth set medical walkoff by Gulbis, forget getting outplayed in the fifth. If Roger makes that basic over overhead the match is over. He knows it. I know it. Lenny and Leo probably know it, too.

That said, credit to Gulbis who was ferocious off his backhand wing and hung tough with Federer. He could have easily gone away like he’s done in the past but the 25-year-old didn’t. He know has patience to go along with the power. And while off court he still hasn’t matured all signs are that’s changing on the court.

So looking ahead to tomorrow for out first batch of quarters…

Ernests Gulbis v Tomas Berdych
Am I sold on Ernests? Not quite. But every time I pick Tomas I lose. So here we go again.

Gulbis might be the hotter player after winning in Nice and taking down Roger. Berdych, though, has the experience. He’s done this before and he’s won. And he, unlike Federer, has the raw power to go toe-to-toe with Gulbis. And Berdych can even out throttle Gulbis.

I also don’t know how much partying Gulbis did after the Federer win – I mean, there had to have been some sort of celebration following the biggest win of his career, am I right? Meanwhile, aside from that horrific shirt, Berdych has been all business thus far, quietly dismissing opponent after opponent. Though that’s his normal M.O. pretty much everywhere.

Gulbis, however, does have two wins over Berdych including a Wimbledon three breaker effort a couple years ago. But Berdych has won the last two – granted indoors – and won their only meeting on clay.

Honestly, looking at the matchup I don’t know what Gulbis does better than Berdych between the lines. Maybe movement? Maybe smashing racquets? Therefore, with the post-Federer hangover a factor…

The pick: Berdych in four

Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic
It was nice to see Milos Raonic get that big win over Gilles Simon over the weekend. It was a match he should have won and did win, that is if he someone to take seriously going forward. And he showed we should.

This season Raonic has added to game and it’s good to see. He’s moving better, he has more penetration with the backhand and of course he’s got that boomer serve. That’s not going anywhere and my guess neither is his Top 10 status.

Raonic, though, meets the ultimate elastic man in Djokovic. It looks like that wrist injury isn’t an issue at all and after the blowout win over an MIA JW Tsonga, he’s back to being the man to beat.

These two played a month ago in a good one in the Rome semifinals won by Novak 6-3 in the third. Raonic had some chances in the second but couldn’t seal it. The problem now is Raonic will have to win not two but three sets. And I just don’t see the Canadian pulling that off just yet.

Djokovic returns too well and he has the ability to take control of the point off either wing. I said Milos is moving better, but at 6-foot-5 or so he’s no Nadal or David Ferrer.

And of course this is far more important for Novak. Now in the quarters he’s nine sets from the ultimate prize. So I can’t see him losing here to a non-claycourt from Canada.

The pick: Djokovic in four

As for the women’s event, I’ve been saying all year that Simona Halep might be the one to beat in Paris. Since Serena’s gone (to the beach), I’ll actually stick with those words and pick her to take the title over the Maria Sharapova-Garbine Muguruza winner, a match that is really a toss up. The way Muguruza hits the ball I think she’ll be a Top 5 player very soon and if she beats Maria she could win this title!

“The way Muguruza hits the ball I think she’ll be a Top 5 player very soon and if she beats Maria she could win this title!”

That’s pretty much what Serena told her at the net (absent a reference to any specific player, of course). I think she’s really visualizing and hanging on to that. She’s sure playing like it. Of course, this is the first time she’ll be up against a seed. But we’ll see.

Virginia Wade picked CSN to win on Game Set Mats.

Milos has been training, in Valencia, with Ljubicic and also with Piatti, Gasquet’s former coach. He wants to be taken seriously. I don’t think we can call him a non-claycourter anymore.

Gulbis has better movement. And that deadly backhand. But Tomas’ game – and his headgame – have both matured. So here’s hoping he takes out that brat.

(P.S. Did you pick him to win? Why did you do that if you said every time you do that he loses?)

i watched some of the ferrer and anderson match yesterday. kevin isn’t nadal, but ferrer was looking very clean and save for a late surge by kevin in the 3rd set tie break, i never doubted ferrer would win.

can he finally take out nadal? odds are not in his favor, but maybe he gleaned something from his last win.

would be great if milos could take out novak…. but it’s safe to say, we’d all like to see a novak/rafa final so maybe next year.

I will never bet against Berdych in any match prior to the finals (except if against Nadal). The finals is a different story. I will bet against him there. Berdych’s biggest phobias are Nadal and the finals of any tournament.

Yes, that was a key moment – Federer’s overhead miss. Then, the way Roger played the third set? What was up with that? Was he already thinking about playing on the grass? It seemed like a walkabout time, that third set.

Anyway. I enjoy Sean’s writing very much and agree with Sean’s picking Djokovic over Raonic in four.

Disagree about Berdych-Gulbis.

Berdych will come out strong with his improvements, but Gulbis is serious about his tennis atm; unless, his hamstring really is re-injured. I do remember when Ernie tore the hamstring – at least a couple years ago but it took a lot of time to rehab.

Berdych is obviously the favourite, but the match is in gulbis hands. He can do everything Berdych can(big serve, big groundstrokes, plus better movement and more touch. I still pick berdych. And djokovic will obviously beat raonic.

Polo,
So true re; Birdsh!t. He reminds me so much of Sod…he can blow you away on the court or he can go on a walkabout and spray and hit all the wrong shots at the wrong times. If these types of guys had some mental fortitude they could change the power game in tennis. It’s not how hard you can hit it, but when and consistently ….when. Otherwise just keep it deep and stay in the point until further notice.

I think Gulbis definitely has a good chance to get the better of Berdych especially after his confidence boosing win against Roger. So, there I think the scales are slightly titled in favour of the former rather than the later.

As regards Novak Vs Raonic, Novak should get through. But he has a fight on his hands with Raonic proving lately that he is not a push over even on Clay. I think this match will boil down to the quality of Raonic’s serve and the return game by Novak.

Interesting that djoke and Raonic have only played on clay (twice). Both times the first set went 7-6.

I think djoke takes this one with not too much trouble. This is best of 5 – Fitness wise djoke is miles ahead of most other players, even a bit ahead of Nadal. raonic cannot keep up with him after 2 hours. They will probably again play a tight first set – but I wouldn’t count djoke out even if (though highly unlikely) he loses the first two sets. Big guy raonic will get tired by the 3rd set. I would say he is about as fit as federer is (Raonic).

That’s why Fed can ONLY win a best of 5 in straight sets, or on grass where points are shorter.

Oh dear, this is trixy as I don’t like either much. But as a Big Berd defeat would help Andy, points wise, I’m going with “Gulbis The Gob.”
Sorry Hippy.
I thought Nole had significantly raised his game in the last match, he looked very impressive. His eyes are on the prize.
Cheering for Muguruza too!
@Skeeze
Re power players. Hope they NEVER do!

I think it’s open. I would pick Berdych too, since they are similar players but the Czech has a better FH and return, but you never know. I also think he won’t lose a set to Ernie.

In the other match – it’s open. Novak doesn’t always handle big servers well. His H2H against Roddick, Karlovic, Isner show it clearly. But it’s clay, and there will be a lot of running, he moves the ball well in any direction, and there will be a point when Raonic will start missing his FH and BH. The key for Novak is to serve well and make Raonic running, for Raonic to serve well and not to run after every ball, but to wait for his chance.

Today will be some tiebreaks, for sure
Let see if Milos get the first set, if so, the match will be more fun to watch.
Berdych wants the 4 place in the ranking, so I will pick him in 4 sets.
He will direct his strokes to Gulbis forehand.

Very often, the guy who beats a top player expends a lot of energy during that match. In his next match, he may have a little less reserve energy resulting in a lesser caliber of play. If he faces another tough player, his chance of winning drops. This may happen to Gulbis. But hopefully, he will have enough to beat Berdych whose early round wins mean nothing because he will just lose in a finals match anyway.

Berdych is just an overrated player. He playns only his best against federer. At least Gulbis gives Nadal a decent contest whereas Berdych gets demolished. And to call Gulbis FH a weakness is total rubbish, it looks ugly but has some power and consistency. And gulbis is for me the better allround player.

Berdych couldnt win a set against Nole in Wimbledon after having a double break in one set how is he supposed to win this match easily. hE is a choker more or less. Only 9 titles (gulbis has six) and the last one coming after having to wait for more than two years. Lost against berloq (!!!!) in a clay court final.

Berdych is so overrated. Cant play against Nole and Nadal even if his life depends on it. He is useless.

Gulbis only weakness is his mind. When he is focussed every one has to fear him.

Raonic is playing well but too predictably. He’s giving the ball to Novak in easy positions, even hitting smashes right to him. That habit will definitely catch up to him if he can’t mix up his patterns and make Novak work.

Bouchard is surely a future GS champion – already two consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals (on different surfaces), and she’s shown that she does have the mental strength required. Not sure she’ll beat Sharapova here, but she can definitely do some damage soon

What a display of power off both sides, speed and deft from Gulbis. No wonder he beats Fed who is unable to match him on the backhand because of his one handedness.
Would be interesting to see him play Joko or Nadal.
I think I’ve found myself a player to like after Roger is flushed out (according to the great man himself)

I think tennis fans have followed Gulbis and enjoyed his tennis, hoping for more success, for a long time.

Raonic looks done now, but its a huge learning experience for him. He is not far from Novak today. Forget potential, he is currently a mile ahead of his generational peers. If we buy that no one will be bursting to #1 from nowhere for at least 2-3 years, putting Novak and Murray near 30, and Rafa beyond it, the hopes for a Slam for Milos are very realistic.

It looks like there are more people cheering in the stands cheering for Gulbis than Berdych. Maybe, like me, they are also tired of wasting their time cheering for someone who will just waste away that victory anyway. Somehow, I feel sorry for Berdych. One can improve the physical part of his game but the mental deficit is just inhgerent and so much harder to overcome.

@Polo – I’ve always liked Gulbis’s game and am glad he is finally living up to his potential. As for the general appearance of a lot of Ernie fans on this Tennis-X thread, keep in mind there’s also the Berdych factor – a lot of us here don’t seem to like him.

Is Ernie bossing again? We know he can live like a boss but I expected some lapses in level of play – Berdych is no slouch. Gulbis has to remain focused on every point. Focusing on every point is really tough ask for someone as easily distracted by just about everything on court.

Jesus we should just relax our expectations on Raonic & leave him be.
What a snooze fest!
He has potential but he is years away from being a contender at the slams.
All of the(real)big 4 will have to be retired first.
Gulbis has certainly been impressive, getting to his first semi final in 2 days time.
Or did Berdych play more of a part by being truly lamentable?
Roll on Wednesday.

This s not the first time Djoko is having problems closing out sets and matches One of this days he will have a huge set back. But he is playing so well that is happening when he has a double break. But this is something he has to address, because clay always presents more chances to break…But as long as he breaks back or hold right after. He was serving 5-2 30-30.

Can Gulbis hold it together for third straight match against a highly ranked player, Novak? This is where his mental power will be truly tested. He will need the mental abilities similiar to Nadal’s and Sharopova’s to win and go further.

I think at this point with the way Gulbis won he can give a fight to Nadal if he is to beat Djoko (which I think he won’t). Oddily he has a game simiar to Soderling with better movement and better serve, maybe he is THE ONE:-)
Djokovic is just playing too good and the only set he lost so far was a tiebreak and he was never losing in any set he played a break down or something. Djoko is in commanding form.

I would like to see next two matches from the other side, to see Nadal actually play and if Murray will have a convincing win. If he is to have a chance against Nadal he has to win in 3 as fast as possible and with no lapses or engaging in drama matches which is what Monfils loves, specially here in Paris. Because if Murray is playing great he can give a real fight to Djoko as well.

I know is today none thought both matches would be straight sets, but I could see tomorrow matches going with similar score, or going the distance if Ferrer and Monfils decides to play and neither Nadal nor Murray be in top form. My money is Nadal in 3 (Ferrer can only make a match if he wins the first) and Murray in 3 as well (maybe 4 if he has some lapse).

Djokovic has shown great form and no sign of a wrist problem. There is just so much motivation for him here and Nole is playing with confidence. Ernie is playing with more confidence and maturity than ever! But there will be another time for EG to catch Novak.

Gulbis has a lot of respect for Novak, from the way he talks about him.

Nadal is a mystery due to his ridiculous draw.
Ferrer is playing well better than Nadal and is a great returner, perhaps Rafa will go for broke on his serving now as he has to.
I don’t believe it will be easy for him but I do believe he will pull through.
Andy in 3, as long as he isn’t distracted by Monfils scenery chewing & gymnastics.

Agree with you again, Daniel. I picked Gulbis over Berdych but I thought Berdych would get the first set at least. Gulbis is on fire!

Tomorrow’s quarterfinals should be good too. Nadal vs Ferrer is usually a yawn but I think Daveed may have a chance – a very little chance but at least the match does not feel flat as usual to me this time.

Murray and LaMonf has to be good entertainment. Expect Murray to win but who knows?

I don’t like the look of that weather forecast. Everything gets heavier and slower = more physical rallies. It’ll be harder for Andy to end points. Plus Chatrier is slower than Lenglen. It depends which Gael turns up I guess.

Watching the 2nd half of the Berdy-Gulbis match I thought ‘this Gulbis could be quite a handful for Nole.’ Utterly ruthless display of serving and hitting. Berdych was a bit flat but that’s also because he was battered into submission. He never has a plan B either.

Well, last time Nadal lost RG was a dump day with bad weather. Just saying…:-)
The bad thing is if they can complete the matches than they will have to play consecutive days, if start QF tomorrow but only ending on Thursday and playing semis on Friday. Doable but as long as they can start male matches tomorrow otherwise they will be playing 3 matches in 4 days. While Gulbis or Djoko would play 2 matches in 5 days.

Wasn’t surprised Gulbis won, but was surprised at the ease with which he did so.
However, Big Berd deserved to lose, wearing that truly horrible outfit. Eeeuk! Standards have to be maintained, dontyaknow?……;)

My analysis of gulbis vs berdych above was spot on-Gulbis is the better mover of the two, and that’s what made the difference. HE can basically hit as hard as berdych, but is faster. And when 2 players have a similar style, but one is better at it, the match tends to be a rout.