Thursday, July 20, 2006

Update: I made the grave mistake of not accounting for the 14 weeks; thanks to "A1"'s comment I awoke to the mistake, although very late.Originally, it seemed that AMD had won almost a percent. My apologies. This incorrect analysis misled me to cover my written calls under the assumption that AMD gained terrain. I hope that next time, dear readers, I will be able to make use of your help before it is too late for losing money or being publicly embarrassed for so long. "A1": No, AMD didn't lose revenue share either and thanks for the tip.

According to Intel's reportMicroprocessor revenues (Digital Enterprise Group + Mobility Group) are 3.338 G$ and 1.958 G$, or 5.3 G$.

AMD's revenues are 1.22 G$ in 14 weeks, for a 13 week equivalent of 1.133 G$

The combined revenues (13 week adjusted) are 6.43

That means that the revenue market shares are 82.4% and 17.6% now.

Since Intel comes from Q1 (DEG + MG == 3.892 G$ + 2.347 G$ == 6.239 G$, it experienced a decline in processors of (62-53)/62 or 14.5% (by the way, Intel ceased to receive almost one billion dollars, 4/5 of total AMD revenues).

With these numbers, we can see that in Q1 the revenue market share was Intel processors 6239 to 1332 AMD, or 6239/7571 to 1332/7571; 82.4% to 17.6%.

5
comments:

Anonymous
said...

Good analysis but how can you do this without AMD's Q2 numbers? Your revenue is based on AMD's guidance; official #'s come out later this week (tomorrow?) which you can then plug into your calculations.

It may even be better, or worse, than the 1% gain you are calculating.

Stupid question - isn't there still some non-Intel, non-AMD semiconductor sales? I doubt this market share changes very much but is known to be a constant?

If I read your analysis correctly you are calculating the market share by simplying adding Intel and AMD revenue - this assumes all other market share segment is constant, no?

You are aware that AMD's Q2 contained 14 weeks, compared to 13 weeks in Q1? So, if you adjust for the extra week in AMD's Q2, AMD's revenues in Q2 were down 15% compared to Q1. Intel's quarters were both 13 weeks long, so AMD actually lost market share.

I must commend you for updating your blog when another reader pointed out an honest mistake you made. This is in stark contrast to other related blogs (I will leave authors anonymous) where if you point out an error the response is typically:

"I don't have time to explain it to you" or "this can only be understood by someone with a reasonable IQ".

Now, I don't know what is the objective bloggers such as Sharikou have with their blogs. I mean, if I make a mistake, denial or accusation is not going to correct it, on the contrary, is going to make me look more of a fool.

I hope that those who come here are able to understand that blogging is an effort that never ends, and that the crude reality is that the blogger must compromise quality to get it done.

I would love English "cherry pickers" to point out my mistakes.

Other Engineers my tech. mistakes.

Financial experts my crude and naive financial ramblings.

That way I will learn a lot.

Thank you for stopping by and leaving words of encouragement. Next time, leave a handle (a nickname)