Snow a no-show at area ski resorts

Opening dates have been pushed back by high temperatures.

What a year for skiing. The snow and low temperatures came early, and the season set records for early openings and late closings at ski areas throughout the Poconos.

But that was last winter.

This year, it looks like it's back to reality for local skiers and ski area operators.

A warmer-than-normal November has pushed back opening dates for ski resorts that by this time last year were open with exceptionally good early-season snow cover.

"We're a little disappointed with the weather," said Blue Mountain Ski Area marketing director Sandy Harlan as fog and rain enveloped the ski runs. "We always hope to be open on Dec. 1, but it's not going to happen this year. Right now we are taking it one day at a time."

The rain and fog dampened spirits at most eastern Pennsylvania ski areas on Friday, but the good news is temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s this week, low enough that most will be able to fire up the snow guns each night to start laying a base.

The bad news is the longer-term forecasts call for higher temperatures next week, and those 50-plus-degree days could push opening dates back to the middle or end of the month.

"It's not last winter. Last winter it started in October, and we had our first winter storm by Thanksgiving," said National Weather Service meteorologist Tony Gigi, who said his own study of November's higher temperatures indicates a much more normal winter for the region this year. "Last winter was unseasonably cold and unseasonably snowy."

The Climate Prediction Center in Washington, D.C., puts the odds close to 50-50 for a normal Lehigh Valley winter for the 2003-04 season, Gigi said. That means an average snowfall of about 32.3 inches between now and April.

The 2002-03 season brought 54.9 inches between October and April in the Lehigh Valley, he said. Amounts in the Poconos were often higher because of elevation and other factors.

Even though temperatures are expected to climb slightly in the second week of December, Gigi said the sun's rays are weakest during this month. That means days are shorter and nights are longer -- and colder.

Gigi said the chance of another snowy winter this year is only about 10 percent to 15 percent, but he cautions against leaning too heavily on the word "normal" to describe winter.

"It's like finding the "normal' person," he said. "If you look at the calendar year, you've actually had about seven or eight days of normal temperatures."

Still, ski area operators are used to the vagaries of winter weather and most have learned how to deal with it.

"It's important to have programs that are a little bit of insurance," said Jim Tust, administrative manager for Ski Shawnee in Monroe County.

Tust said season ticket and group sales, lesson packages and other related programs provide an income base for many ski areas.

"The most important thing as an operator is to watch costs and labor," he said. "That includes knowing when to make snow or wait, when to let the students working in the rental shop punch out and do some skiing during a slow day and deciding when to make needed improvements or hold off for just one more year."