Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

Patrick Mahomes is throwing for a yard less per pass play in 3 career games versus the Chargers than his career average because Los Angeles’s defense is well suited to take away Kansas City’s strengths. Tyreek Hill is gaining 2.47 yards per route run (5th) and Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 1205 receiving yards, but both guys could struggle on Sunday. Casey Hayward is surrendering just 0.65 yards per cover snap (5th) and he will limit Hill on the outside while Desmond King’s speed at nickelback won’t allow Hill to thrive in the middle either. The Chargers have allowed just 6.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends with excellent safety Derwin James in the lineup, which is significantly lower than overall tight end average of 7.5 yards per target. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has only conceded 1 sack all season and he will neutralize edge defender Joey Bosa, 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

Philip Rivers loves to throw to his running backs and Austin Ekeler is gaining 2.85 yards per route run ranking 4th among all players. The Chiefs have struggled defending pass-catchers out of the backfield this year and Ekeler recorded 105 receiving yards when these teams met in Mexico City, but there’s reason to believe Kansas City’s defense could be better this time around. The Chiefs are now playing Ben Niemann at second linebacker and he is has been a half yard per cover snap better than Damien Wilson.

Kansas City has reason to play their starters in this game because they could get a first-round bye if the Patriots lose. Alternatively, the Chiefs could fall to the 4-seed if they lose and the Texans win. Our model favors makes Kansas City a 7.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.7 points.