(092112)

Population
and Change

''Examining
processes in motion identifies driving forces behind change.
Humanity is undeniably the source of many changes. A collective
human bias sees the world according to societal need—this
is the anthropocentric, human-centered source for change.
Indirect effects stemming from the wake of human activity also
generate unforeseen secondary changes. All together, these developments
become the objects of debate or studies drawing attention to
the immense complexity of global problems.

''Centuries ago,
the Earth represented a relatively infinite, inexhaustible, resource. But
as time passed, human use of space and natural resources increased, especially
with advancing industrial capacity and the population’s recent, unprecedented,
growth (see Figure 3). Understanding change over time, by studying timelines, illustrates how expansion of human habitation and exploitation
of non-renewable resources underscores the finite capacity of Earth.''

• Population

Very soon—in
the first few decades of the new millennium—the increase in human population
will attain an annual growth rate of one-hundred million. This follows two
decades, the 70s and 80s, when the world’s total increased by 1.6 billion.
Incredibly, humanity’s numbers have turned an exponential corner to sail straight up into uncharted waters. Simultaneously there is also
an explosion of global consumption and development of new technologies.
Figure 3 is a timeline illustrating the magnitude of our population’s
amazing growth. For life to continue, the Earth must endure increasing pressures
from an additional one billion people per decade. Present indications suggest
this trend will continue for each of the next three decades. The World Bank
estimates the human population—now at 6 billion—will reach 12.5
billion by the year 2100. The United Nations (UN) provides estimates ranging
from 9 to 14 billion.

Where are all these
people? Some live on the land, some in towns, suburbs, or cities, but humanity
now moves away from the earth. Migration within a less populated world previously
offered new survival opportunities or escape from less desirable conditions.
Migration was a solution when a homeland was destroyed by fire or flood,
or when hunting grounds were depleted. But this option is ineffective today
and humans are rarely nomadic hunters and gatherers. A Mexican anthropologist,
Dr. Lourdes Arizpe, is concerned by the numbers of people who move from
farm to city when global economic conditions force agrarian people from
their land. Money and jobs draw them to urban centers. Secondary problems
later arise because valued agricultural land is consumed by expanding urban
centers. "Globally, it has been forecast that 24 million hectares of crop
land will be transformed to urban-industrial uses by the year 2000; this
is only 2 percent of the world total, but it is equivalent to the present-day
food supply of some 84 million people." (SXi 50) This loss of agricultural
land is most severe in developing countries.

The size of our population
is often blamed for global problems. However, the window view indicates
what people do—their activity—may be more important than any number.
With this point in mind, one can also see that humanity is stratified into
regions defining population growth, poverty, and types of activity. The
world’s population is comprised of subsets generally identified as:
the North—i.e., richer industrialized countries—and the South—i.e.,
poorer developing or less developed countries (LDCs).

Less educated parents
and poorer families generally produce more children compared to better educated
or more affluent parents in Europe and North America. Future parents of
the South will produce more children, who in turn enter the child rearing
cycle at an earlier age compared to their counterparts in the North. Approximately
95% of the global population growth occurs in developing countries (SXi
123). Thus, the population cycle from kids to parents, to more kids, is
simply faster in the South. Relatively speaking, the North is shrinking!
This example of differential change accentuates the future locations for
increasing human activity, and thus illustrates new sources for driving
forces that cause accelerated global change. The poor will want more of
what the rich already have.

Improved health care,
education, sanitation, and greater personal wealth hold the promise of higher
standards of living and longer life spans. Ironically, these desired advancements
plus solutions to making peace, solving global problems, or building a sustainable
future actually spur population growth and resource consumption. With few
exceptions, global population has always realized net gains and humanity
seems hopelessly unable to lower its own numbers.

Figure 3: Global
Population. This graph makes the simple statement that the Earth is
continually pressed to support an ever increasing human population of
historically unprecedented proportion. When humanity finally exhausts
any one significant limiting factor—logical examples include food
or water resources—the present population trend leads to catastrophic
events or consequences that produce rapid population decline.

• Poverty versus Wealth

The distinction between
rich and poor should remain fixed in your mind. This key point reflects
a historical difference, which presently shows no sign of reversing itself.
Wealth is a significant theme here, because future events—discussed
later with regard to a biblical timeline—revolve around a world struggling
to achieve greater material prosperity.

What are the present
dimensions of poverty? The World Bank estimates 1.2 billion people live
in absolute poverty—with per capita incomes under 370 dollars per year.
This figure compares with the annual sum many North American children spend
on school lunches. Incredibly, most of Earth’s peoples—roughly
4 to 5 billion—only live on 15% of the global economy (SXi124). Meanwhile
the rich are getting richer, they consume more, add to global environmental
problems and jeopardize fragile ecosystems in developing countries.

Poor nations possess
a greater proportion of the world’s resources— including a high
percentage of the globe’s plant and animal biodiversity. The environment
suffers when the poor attempt to close the poverty gap by selling precious
tropical hardwoods, exploiting rare animal and plant species, and eroding
the Earth to find valuable minerals. They have few other options to elevate
their earning power and standard of living. Furthermore, the world’s
poorer citizens are most vulnerable to drastic environmental change—especially
from catastrophic events including earthquakes, hurricanes, typhoons, droughts,
and floods. If not a total effort to survive, life for the poor is forever
a game of catching up.

A tension develops
from an imbalance between those who have money and technology and
those who have far less. The real insult comes when exports from the South
earn a meager compensation trapping poor nations into their LDC status.
A backlash may yet appear if the poor succeed in placing tighter controls
and higher prices on their native wealth. The North considers this possibility
a threat to its economies which depend on unimpeded access to a cheap supply
of resources. Meanwhile, increasing numbers, especially within the ranks
of the poor, assert growing demands for life style improvements and increased
material security—better food, more money, autos, consumer electronics,
homes, etc. The critical nature to humanity’s future consumption is
appropriately expressed by Alan Durning:

In the end,
the ability of the earth to support billions of human beings depends on
whether we continue to equate consumption with fulfillment.

This raises a key
point for the timeline ahead because growing markets now lead humanity
into an ever expanding material age.

The activities of
the rich influence climate change and essentially—by an advantage of
wealth and technology—maintain poverty elsewhere in the world. The
abyss between privileged and oppressed peoples is only bridged by the hope
that one day the poor might cross over to a better standard of living. If
there were no poverty, if people were granted total equity, if global commerce
flowed freely, there would be less migration, a lower universal birth rate,
and fewer armed conflicts. The elimination of poverty may be a logical goal,
but market advantage, greed, and national debts put this objective into
the distant future.

• Planet Carrying
Capacity

Everything examined
to this point leads to this one topic. Carrying capacity is the ability of
our planet to house, feed, and otherwise support all life forms. In every
aspect of life, there is a global maximum level for: population size
for each species, the amount of solar energy available to grow plants, water
in a form suitable for land and sea creatures, and habitats with soils, vegetation
and space for those who occupy the Earth. Here, I quote several members of
the scientific community to summarize the major concerns for Earth’s
future carrying capacity:

The rise
in global dominance of the human species has led to the appropriation
of an astonishingly large fraction of global productivity. Clearly this
could not have occurred without a compensating reduction of the share
of that productivity used by wild animals and plants. ... It is not just
species that become extinct; entire natural systems are being reduced
in size and complexity or completely eliminated.’ — Munro
(SXi 95)

'The numbers
of humans that can live on the planet will be restricted by agricultural
production and the number of kilocalories that each individual requires
to thrive or simply survive. — Arizpe and Valezquez (SXi 36)

...the 'sacred
truths,' that the earth is infinite and progress is possible, must be
discarded... — Arizpe and Valezquez (SXi 37)

We have changed
the land and continue to do so to secure much of the food, fiber, and
special products that we need or want. In doing so, the 5.3 billion people
now on earth use 40% of the energy of the sun that is made available by
green plants on land. — Munro (SXi 94)

Six to seven
million hectares of agricultural land are being lost to erosion every
year, and an additional 1.5 million hectares to water logging, salinization,
and alkalinization; at the same time grazing land and all other productive
land around the world are being degraded. — Raven (SXi 128)

In Europe
and the United States, we tend to overproduce, and to be concerned with
the expense of subsidies for agricultural production. We largely ignore
the fact that much of our agricultural productivity is taking place at
high costs in energy and sometimes as a result of expending non-renewable
supplies of groundwater. — Raven (SXi 128-129)

Above all, one point
interests me most. Presently, 5.5 billion people are using 40% of the world’s
photosynthetic base. In other words, humanity alone controls or consumes
40% of the Sun’s energy stored each year in crops, trees, and other
plant matter. Humanity is faced with the astronomical question: Is it
possible that a population of 10 billion might succeed in using 80% of the
photosynthetic base—in a peaceful and nondestructive way? For the
first time in history, humans encounter a biological ultimatum. Remember,
at present the other 60% of the Sun’s energy supports all other species
on Earth. As humans consume more, one dominant species tips the scales
and reduces the amount of support for all other life forms. This shifts
increasing numbers of species toward extinction. Humans live within a finite
system. Some get more, while others get less, but all the while humanity’s
self indulgence diminishes the importance of all other species. The
scientific community continues to express alarm and concern. I know progress
will be made in some areas, but how will the planet endure overall?

The importance to global change is in looking at how social, biological, and physical sciences all reveal data and signs for more ominous changes in the near future. This is change in every aspect of human and earthly affairs ... globally. The Window looks further to see change as a backdrop to a biblical timeline. Driving forces for change force us to ask the most important questions about our true origin, who we are, why we are here, and what the Scriptures tell us about the future. Change forces us to look deeper to face choice or crisis. Life is an opportunity to look for the answers.

This
is just one of many panes in the WindowView. This is a fraction of
the process identified earlier within the section entitled 'Convergence.'
Keep exploring the view, visit our page titled 'Experience
WindowView' to see how global changes are part of a larger holistic
paradigm which is the reason behind assembling this cyber-place. Putting
the picture together helps to envision humanity's direction along
the dimension of time.

A
copy of this text with footnotes and a complete listing of references
used in writing this text can be obtained by downloading the chapters
and reference list for the Creator's
Window. References that appear as ''(SXi #)'' signify the page
number from Sigma Xi's publication related to a 1991 forum on global
change (see reference list for the Creator's Window for a complete
citation of this work).

References from SXi and page number refer to the Sigma Xi Forum Proceedings: Global Change and the Human Prospect: Issues in Population, Science, Technology and Equity, November 1991. The importance of this science society's forum is that the meeting was forward looking and demonstrates how scientists from social, biological, and physical sciences all saw change on the rise. Not just climate change, but change in every aspect of human and earth affairs ... globally.

For a general listing of books, visit the WindowView Book Page for: Science and Scripture .

Step Up To Life

Time spent looking ... through a window on life and choice ... brings the opportunity to see in a new light. The offer for you to Step Up To Life is presented on many of the web pages at WindowView. Without further explanation we offer you the steps here ... knowing that depending on what you have seen or may yet explore in the window ... these steps will be the most important of your life ...