The Korean factor in Moscow’s foreign policy

Vladimir Putin had two reasons to visit
Seoul on November 12 and 13: security and security. And no, that is not a typo.
It's the harsh reality that Russia faces in the Asia-Pacific region.

The first reason is related to the
Korean conflict. North Korea, of course, shares a border with Russia, and is
located close to the most strategically sensitive area in the Russian Far East
– the port city of Vladivostok. The Korean governments are still formally at
war, and only have an armistice agreement that was signed July 27, 1953.
Escalating confrontations and local skirmishes in the conflict could harm the
Russian population, block sea and air transport, and cause an influx of
refugees, even in the best-case scenario.

At worst, the problems could be even
more severe. The Korean conflict, in which the United States supports South
Korea, has driven Pyongyang to develop nuclear weapons and missiles capable of
delivering them. North Korea conducts its nuclear tests and missile launches at
a location only 150 kilometers to 300 kilometers (90 miles to180 miles) from
the Russian border. With every test, the preparedness of Russia's military and
civil defense is ratcheted up. The consequences of its deployment would be
catastrophic for the whole northeast Asia region.

This is why Moscow is extremely
concerned about North Korea's nuclear program. However, Russia can certainly
not stop them by itself. Putin reaffirmed his position on this issue in Seoul.

In addition, the Russian president
called for renewed six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue (North and
South Korea, Japan, the U.S., Russia, and China).

"I believe that the most important
task before us is to unblock these negotiations, renew them, and remove all the
obstacles that are hindering the beginning of the process. If we will keep
constantly putting forward preconditions for the negotiations, they might never
get off the ground," Putin said in an interview with South Korean
Broadcasting System on the eve of his visit to Seoul.

It could have sounded like the familiar
mantra, if not for the Syrian situation, where Russia and the United States
succeeded in beginning the process of destroying Syria's chemical weapons, or
the marked acceleration in nuclear negotiations with Iran, in which Russia has
also played a role. These are unexpected and effective steps that are defusing
tensions in the Middle East and helping to prevent the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction, on which modern world order depends. This is the perfect
time to try this approach in the Korean Peninsula.

At the same time, Putin discussed some
of Russia's own proposals for getting the two Koreas to talk.

"Trilateral cooperation should not
be held hostage by politics, but on the contrary, should be an important
unifying and reconciling factor," he said at a news conference following
the Russian-Korean talks. He was referring to cooperation in the transportation
and energy sectors.

Firstly, this means restoring the
Trans-Korean Railway and connecting it to the Trans-Siberian Railway. The
president noted that "this is not just an initiative that exists only on
paper." Russia has already taken steps to put it into motion. Russian
Railways has repaired a fairly large section of the railway in North Korea,
building it almost from scratch.

Commenting on the "Eurasian
initiative" of the new South Korean president Park Geun-hye to create a
single transportation network linking North and South Korea, China, Russia and
Central Asia, Putin stressed that it is fully consistent with the Russian
initiative.

Secondly, there is the project to build
a gas pipeline from Russia across the Korean Peninsula. The idea to put the
valve on the pipe leading to South Korea in the hands of the northerners is
seen as rather risky. However, if it works, it would be a step towards building
confidence between the North and the South, and thus could lessen the threat of
conflict. Seoul has not dismissed the idea, it even formalized it in a joint
statement, but it is understandably taking time to examine the issue.

It is worth noting that this security
issue in the context of the Korean conflict relates directly to Russia's
security as a whole.

Putin's proposal for trilateral
economic cooperation, as well as the economic agreement signed in Seoul, are
both consistent with the doctrine announced last year in Vladivostok
redirecting Russia to the Asia-Pacific region, creating a transportation
corridor in Siberia between Europe and Asia, and developing the energy infrastructure
in the Far East for transporting oil and gas to large consumers such as China,
Japan, and South Korea. It is through international cooperation that Putin
intends to revitalize the currently depressed Siberia, a region that Russia
depends on more than nuclear missiles.

For now, Moscow sees its main partner
as China, but it is clearly aiming to diversify.

"Our
traditional partner is China. This is good. But we should not develop in just
one direction, we need to intensify Russia's Asian diplomacy in other
directions,” said Sergei Luzyanin, the assistant director of the Institute for
Far Eastern Studies. "South Korea and Vietnam are the best choices for
diversifying Russia's Asian policy by taking advantage of all of Russia's
resources."