Burnt Orange Report's Guide to Texas's 2012 Congressional Races

Now that filing has opened, closed, opened, and closed, and maps have been drawn, re-drawn, and re-drawn again, it's time to get down to brass tacks and hold some primaries and elections for Texas's soon-to-be 36-member Congressional delegation. Our state picked up 4 new seats after the 2010 census, and this year's primaries look to be particularly competitive as candidates duke it out for seven open Congressional seats. Primaries will be held on Tuesday, May 29th, and the run-off on Tuesday, July 31st.

There was a flurry of activity at the end of last week before filing closed on Friday, especially in the few districts where non-incumbents have even a fighting chance of winning. The Texas Congressional delegation doesn't have a lot of turn-over in the partisan stronghold districts. So it's no surprise to see so many candidates filing in the few wide-open districts that emerged in this process: the four new districts, CD-33, 34, 35 and 36; the 25th, made vacant by drawing out Lloyd Doggett and thus pushing him into the 35th, and the 14th, where Ron Paul is retiring. The 20th is also open due to the retirement of Charlie Gonzalez, but State Rep. Joaquin Castro has that on lock-down at this point, so there's no real race there.

As a result, Texas will send at least six new individuals to Washington DC next January (Doggett is favored to win in the 35th, so while he'll likely be back in DC next year, it will not be in his current district), and that's without any primary or general election upsets. The last time our Congressional delegation changed so dramatically was in 2005, as a result of Tom DeLay's mid-decade redistricting, which targeted Anglo Democrats and flipped our delegation from 17-15 Democratic to 21-11 Republican. Seven of our current 32 Congressfolk were elected in that wave.

Right now, our best pick-up opportunity looks to be the 23rd, where Republican Quico Canseco faces a strong challenge from whomever wins the Democratic primary. There's also a chance in some other districts simply depending on who prevails in a crowded primary field. In particular, keep your eye on CD-14, where former Rep. Nick Lampson has a very good chance of winning. The numbers for Democrats in general aren't that great, but Lampson in particular has a solid shot given that he's represented over 75% of the district when it was part of the pre-DeLay CD-9. On the upside (cross your fingers) it looks like there aren't any Democratic districts we can actually lose (knock wood), barring unforced campaign errors. Last cycle saw a number of incumbent Democratic losses owing to the Tea Party wave and some failed organization in key areas of Texas. However, of the seats we saw switch hands in 2010 — CD-17, CD-23, and CD-27 — both the 17th and 27th are now strong Republican districts.

Before we delve into the extremely crowded Congressional primaries around the state, there were a few notable filings and withdraws at the end of last week that changed the nature of several races dramatically on the Democratic side. In CD-35, Democratic candidate Patrick Shearer dropped out and endorsed Lloyd Doggett. This was no surprise, since he had sent a press statement once the interim maps were released that made clear his lack of interest in opposing Doggett. Additionally, in CD-20, Ezra Johnson dropped out of challenging Joaquin Castro, as he was drawn into CD-35, said he had “no intention to run against Lloyd Doggett.” Finally, the one person who might have gotten into CD-35, Ciro Rodriguez, declared instead for CD-23 and jumped in against State Rep. Pete Gallego and John Bustamante. That primary — which otherwise could have been called for Gallego — will now be a more interesting battle of two long-term public servants who have represented large swathes of the geographically massive border district. On the Republican side, Roger Williams jumped in the 25th versus Michael Williams and a softball team of opponents, since his original target, the 33rd, became a minority-opportunity district that will elect a Democrat. Of course, you will remember R.Williams from this gem of a web video that he ran last Fall.

The real interest, at least until July, is in the open seats, which have drawn crowded fields of Democrats and Republicans alike. We'll have deeper analysis of each race (especially once we collectively find out who some of these yahoos are). But in the meantime, we can start with a run-down of who's running for what, and where.

Below the fold you'll find a chart with every candidate running, the incumbent's years in office, and the margin in the 2008 Presidential, 2008 SCOTX, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 SCOTX elections, as well as the share of Spanish Surname voter registration, and our rating of the races. Since this is Texas, we're rating them in Scoville units — or, in laymen's terms, if this race was a chile pepper, how hot of a chile pepper would the race be?

Pepper Spray! Weapons-grade pepper spray is hotter than almost any pepper known to man. Expect an angry, vitriolic, aggressive race.

Habanero! Hot hot hot! These races will be fiercely contested between several excellent candidates, in the primary or in November.

Jalapeno Popper: Spicy entertainment. These races can always be hotter than expected, depending on what's in the filling and how long it's been in the deep fryer.

Green Bell Pepper. No measurable heat.

Peppermint Patty: So not hot, it's almost cold.

In terms of methodology, I've listed the margin in the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the three 2008 Supreme Court of Texas (SCOTX) races, as well as the margin in the 2010 Gubernatorial race and three 2010 SCOTX races, so you can see the basic partisan-ness of each district. Additionally, I've added the SSVR, or Spanish surname voter registration, which helps indicate how Hispanic the district is.

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. Hall was a Democrat who switched to the GOP in 2004 to avoid being DeLay-ed out of office. He won last cycle's primary despite 5 challengers. This time he faces Clark, a businessman with extensive trade experience who also ran in 2010, and race car driver (!) Gigliotti. On the D side, Hathcox ran for Land Commissioner a few cycles back, and is a well qualified attorney who sought this office in 2010 as well. It's too bad this isn't an actual physical race, as Hall is the oldest member of Congress, at age 88.

CD-5

Tom Berry, Linda S. Mrosko, Pat Wallace

Jeb Hensarling*

9 years

R+24 R+16

R+20 R+34

8.2%

BOR Heat Index: Peppermint Patty.

CD-6

Don Jaquess, Kenneth Sanders, Brianna Hinojosa-Flores

Joe Barton*, Joe Chow, Itamar Gelbman, Frank Kuchar

27 years

R+15 R+11

R+15 R+26

9.6%

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. This could be entertaining, simply because the district is trending our way. In future Presidential years, we could have a shot. That's the main reason why Barton so panicked about a single Hispanic being added to his district, and got involved in redistricting litigation. If Hinojosa-Flores, a Coppell City Council member and attorney, wins the D primary, we might see how much impact a Spanish surname can have in this district. But first, Barton faces Joe Chow, former Mayor of Addison and local business owner; Gelbman, an Israeli Army Veteran, and Kuchar, a former minister.

CD-7

Phillip Andrews, James Cargas, Lissa Squiers

John Culberson*, Bill Tofte

11 years

R+18 R+21

R+15 R+36

11.6%

BOR Heat Index: Green Bell Pepper. Culberson should win easily, but there could be a mild entertainment factor from Tofte, who had filed in the first interim maps' 34th district, then switched to run against Culberson. Tofte is a former teacher and runs a family business. Keep your eye on Cargas — he's a former Clinton aide and Congressional aide, who might help us move the needle in this very red district that passed on Democratic clean energy businessman Michael Skelly a few cycles back.

BOR Heat Index: Green Bell Pepper. McCaul's got more money than The Pope, and since the district was shored up for him by Greg Abbott and MALDEF, it's unlikely anyone else can win. However, I do hppe that Traylor, associated with the “Get Out Of Our House” anti-incumbent movement, can land a few punches on Congressman 1%.

CD-11

Jim Riley

Wade Brown, Mike Conaway*, Chris Younts

7 years

R+53 R+43

R+49 R+56

19.8%

BOR Heat Index: Green Bell Pepper. Conaway faces two Tea Party activists in a crowded three-way primary. Younts is running because Conaway isn't conservative enough for the district, one of the reddest in the nation. Conaway votes with the GOP 92% of the time.

BOR Heat Index: Pepper Spray! This should be a crazy primary that ends in a late-July run-off, with a competitive general depending on who the R's nominate. Several have governing experience: Weber is a State Rep and former Pearland council member. Truncale is a Texas State Regent and Republican activist. Harris is a current Pearland council member and attorney. Weber, Old, and Truncale all showed decent fundraising prowess in Q4. The winner faces a formidable challenge in November in Nick Lampson. Lampson has held office before in the 9th for 4 terms, and 22nd, besting Shelly Sikula-Gibbs after Tom DeLay was forced out. Lampson is already on the DCCC's targeted Red-to-Blue list, and per his campaign, previously represented over 75% of the current CD-14 back when it (and he) was in CD-9. Lampson specifically has an opportunity to make a major pick-up here — given his name recognition and past campaigns, Lampson and only Lampson could potentially pull this off.

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! Hinojosa has drawn a surprising list of challengers in the 15th, as well as a few Republicans wondering if they can strike gold (unlikely in a Presidential cycle). The 15th runs from San Antonio down to the Valley, between the 28th and the 34th. Right now it's unclear why they're all running or what frustration the Democratic challengers have with Hinojosa, who supported the DREAM Act and is a reliable liberal vote.

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! Reyes is facing a serious challenge from O'Rourke, who has good name recognition and is running a solid campaign. O'Rourke is also backed by the anti-incumbent Campaign for Primary Accountability SuperPAC, which could also play a role and inject serious cash into the race. Furthermore, the new 16th favors O'Rourke slightly more than its previous iteration. The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to prevail in November, given the past numbers in the district.

CD-17

Bill Flores*, George W. Hindman

1 year (defeated Chet Edwards in 2010; Edwards had served for 7 years)

R+17 R+11

R+15 R+25

11.2%

BOR Heat Index: Green Bell Pepper. Flores knocked out Chet Edwards, and was handsomely rewarded by Greg Abbott with a district that is very Republican. It even includes a chunk of north Austin, to add insult to the injury of a 5-way Travis County split. Not much is known of his primary challenger, but given that Flores survived a tough primary and run-off last time, he is likely to prevail.

CD-18

Sheila Jackson Lee*

Sean Siebert

17 years

D+54 D+54

D+53 D+46

15.6%

BOR Heat Index: Peppermint Patty.

CD-19

Randy Neugebauer*, Chris Winn

9 years

R+43 R+37

R+40 R+49

23.1%

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. This could be entertaining as well. Former Lubbock County Republican chair Chris Winn is challenging Neugebauer, yet at this time no one's sure exactly why. He hinted to the local press that it may be due to general dissatisfaction with Congress as a whole. Will his name ID as County Chair help Winn prevail? We shall see.

CD-20

Joaquin Castro

David Rosa

OPEN (Charlie Gonzalez retiring, 13 years)

D+18 D+20

D+16 D+4

55.3%

BOR Heat Index: Peppermint Patty. Castro is the heavy, heavy favorite here. His entry into the first iteration of the 35th against Lloyd Doggett demonstrated his campaign chutzpah, and he was quick to switch into the 20th when Gonzalez announced his retirement. Initially he faced a primary challenge in Ezra Johnson, who was drawn into the 35th and opted not to run in either district.

CD-21

Daniel Boone, Candace Duval

Richard Mack, Richard Morgan, Lamar Smith*

25 years

R+14 R+17

R+19 R+31

15.1%

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! This race has a lot of potential, owing to Smith's role in supporting the much-loathed SOPA. That's likely why Richard Morgan is in the race — the Dallas-based IT engineer filed at the end of last week. He's a young Republican activist who might perform better in this very Red district than Richard Mack, a former Arizona Sheriff who by all accounts is a crazy person. Austin-based businesswoman and activist Candace Duval and former Senate (and SBOE) candidate Daniel Boone will run in the Democratic primary. Duval has been gathering signatures for some time, and Boone switched over from the Senate race.

CD-22

Kesha Rogers, KP George

Barbara Carlson, Pete Olsen*

3 years

R+22 R+20

R+22 R+35

14.7%

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. KP George is doing the Democratic party a great service by running to oust LaRouchie Kesha Rogers from our ticket. You may recall Rogers was the source of an SDEC vote that freed local Democratic groups from supporting her. She is not to be confused with the pop star Ke$ha, who is probably more qualified to hold office than a LaRouchie. Also, Olsen sucks.

CD-23

Pete P. Gallego, Ciro D. Rodriguez, John M. Bustamante

Francisco “Quico” Canseco*

1 year (defeated Ciro Rodriguez in 2010)

D+0.6 D+5.7

R+6.2 R+14

55.1%

BOR Heat Index: Pepper Spray! The hottest race in November, with an exciting primary first. Rodriguez jumped in the primary last Thursday, hoping to face his old foe Canseco rather than tilt against Doggett in the 35th. However, Gallego has been racking up endorsements big and small, and never waivered from running in this district. The DCCC added Gallego to the “Red to Blue” program. The key here is who is better suited to run hard against Canseco. As the numbers indicate, it's going to be a tough race this time and a tougher hold in 2014. Does Gallego's two decades representing most of this turf in the State House outweigh the balance of Ciro's Congressional experience and high profile campaign losses? Regardless, this race could determine who controls the entire US House of Representatives, so expect a bruiser come November.

CD-24

Tim Rusk

Kenny Marchant*, Grant Stinchfield

7 years

R+18 R+19

R+25 R+37

9.0%

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. Marchant is facing a challenge from Stinchfield, a Tea Party activist and auto repair shop owner. However, he's also a former TV reporter, so this might get interesting if name ID is any factor, though I expect Marchant to win.

OPEN (Doggett holds it now; he was drawn out and is running in the 35th. Doggett has served 17 years in Congress in the 10th and 25th districts.)

R+13 R+11

R+13 R+25

8.3%

BOR Heat Index: Pepper Spray! Expect this to be the wildest GOP Primary, owing to two high-profile Williamses (Roger and Michael) who each stepped away from statewide races to compete for Congress. Both have over a million dollars in the bank. Meanwhile, they face a slew of local elected officials in this district that runs from East Austin to Tarrant County. What remains to be seen is if M. Williams' race is an issue in the Republican primary, given what we can call a high “Cracker factor” in the new CD-25.

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! Both primaries will be hot, as three challengers try to knock off lucky duck Farenthold, who snuck into Congress in 2010 after the Nueces County machine largely fell apart. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Bastrop County judge Ronnie McDonald squares off against Nueces Democratic chair Rose Meza Harrison, as well as Junaid and Trevino. Given the partisan breakdown of the district, the Republican primary winner is the odds-on favorite to prevail, but given that the run-offs for this race won't happen until late July, one never knows.

CD-28

Henry Cuellar*

William R. Hayward

7 years

D+17 D+25

D+17 D+7

62.0%

BOR Heat Index: Peppermint Patty.

CD-29

Gene Green*

19 years

D+25 D+37

D+35 D+25

52.0%

BOR Heat Index: Peppermint Patty.

CD-30

Eddie Bernice Johnson*, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Taj Clayton

Travis Washington, Jr.

19 years

D+57 D+58

D+56 D+53

12.3%

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! EBJ is facing two serious challengers: former State Rep. Mallory Caraway, and Oak Cliff trial lawyer Taj Clayton. Clayton outraised EBJ on the Q4 report, and has hired Timo Figueroa, formerly of the Obama campaign and now with Adelante Strategy Group, to oversee his campaign. Don't be surprised if one of the challengers can capitalize on EBJ's ethics troubles stemming from nepotism in the awarding of scholarships. However, EBJ's dispatched primary opponents before, so this will be far from an easy ousting of an incumbent.

CD-31

Stephen M. Wyman

John Carter*, Eric Klingemann

9 years

R+13 R+13

R+22 R+31

11.7%

BOR Heat Index: Jalapeno Popper. Klingemann is also part of the GOOOH effort, and thus challenging Carter on the basis of general anti-Congress and anti-incumbent fervor. Wyman is a former State Senate candidate for the D's. Look for Carter to win both rounds handily. However, if Klingemann comes within 30 points of Carter, it should signal broad dissatisfaction amongst the GOP ranks with Congressional incumbents in general.

CD-32

Katherine Savers McGovern, Walter Hofheinz

Pete Sessions*

9 years

R+11 R+13

R+13 R+30

8.8%

BOR Heat Index: Green Bell Pepper. While it's great to see a McGovern on the ballot, the odds are in favor of NRCC chair Pete Sessions retaining his seat.

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! The one open Democratic minority-opportunity district in North Texas drew a slew of challengers, including State Rep. Marc Veasey, Fort Worth Council Member Kathleen Hicks, former State Rep. Domingo Garcia, former judge JR Molina, former Dallas Councilmember Steve Salazar, businessman David Alameel, Tarrant Co. JP Manuel Valdez, and other local activists. With so many candidates, a run-off can't possibly be avoided. What remains to be seen is if the Abbott/MALDEF configuration tilts this district towards a Dallas-based candidate, as opposed to the Fort Worth base where it was originally drawn. The district is a roughly even split of Hispanic, African-American and Anglo voters. Look for Veasey to do well in Tarrant County. The real question here is who will perform the best in Dallas, and which two candidates make the run-off.

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! The 34th is the new Hispanic district drawn from Corpus Christi down to the border. Not surprisingly, the open seat attracted a host of Democratic candidates, many of whom have solid governing experience. Garza is the former Edinburg City Manager; Guerra is a former Willacy Co. DA; Troiani is a former Brownsville Commissioner; and Villalobos is the Cameron Co. DA. Additionally, Blanchard and Torres are former Congressional aides, and Vela is the son of the former Brownsville mayor. The race will clearly go to a run-off; the only question is who winds up in it. Villalobos has been the leading fundraiser in the race, owing to his early start in the first interim 27th, however Garza entered 2012 with the most cash on hand.

CD-35

Lloyd Doggett, Maria Luisa Alvarado, Sylvia Romo

Susan Narvaiz, Rob Roark, John Yoggerst

OPEN (Doggett is running here since the 25th was drawn out from under him; he has served 17 years in Congress in the 10th and 25th districts)

D+28 D+30

D+23 D+15

43.8%

BOR Heat Index: Habanero! Doggett is the odds-on favorite here, owing to his war chest, fundraising prowess, and decades of service to Texas as an unabashed progressive. He's also represented over 50 percent of this district in his career, and has solid support in the Hays and Caldwell portions of the district. However, given the Latino make-up of the district, it's too early to count out former Bexar County Tax Assessor Romo, or former Lt Gov candidate Alvarado. Thankfully the district won't be too much of an uphill battle in November.

BOR Heat Index: Pepper Spray! This deep red East Texas district will see a 12-way Republican primary that can't help but get vicious. The only question is which candidates touts their Klan membership in their literature. The odds-on favorite has to be Mike Jackson, State Senator and former State Rep. Other candidates with actual experience include Morrell, a current Seabrook City Council member, and Stockman, a former Congressman and frequent candidate for office. There's no way this gets decided in May, so this GOP clown car will keep chugging along until the July run-off.

About Author

Katherine Haenschen is a PhD candidate at the University of Texas, where she studies political participation on digital media. She previously managed successful candidate, issue, voter registration, and GOTV campaigns in Central Texas. She is also a fan of UCONN women's basketball and breakfast tacos.

Dallas County candidates in CD 6?Why on Earth would they run? They weren't in it under any of the maps. They have no ties to the area. Tarrant, Ellis, and Navarro voters surely wouldn't fall for Dallas County folks running for their seat (residency non-requirement be damned). Have either of them said why they picked that seat?

Libertarian CandidatesGreat article! It was lacking one small thing in my humble opinion – and that is the mention of the Libertarian candidates. For the first time in Texas history, there is a Libertarian on the ballot in every district. Here is a list of the candidates: http://www.lptexas.org/node/59