Know Your Enemy

Monday

Aug 5, 2013 at 10:10 AM

I heard an interesting discussion on Al Jezeera this morning about Afghanistan, and how strange it is that after twelve years of war, thousands of pages of writings and decades of thinking about Afghanistan, the American government still does not understand Afghanistan. It was reminding me of something I had heard from Ted Kennedy back in the 1980s, that the United States, when it was training the mujahadeen to fight the Soviets, had organized seminars on Afghan history and Afghan tactics throughout history, and how to adapt those tactics to fighting the Soviets. Amazingly, the Taliban are now using those same tactics against the United States, and we seem to be surprised. The Afghanistan book I loved about the British First Afghan War makes the same points.

So here are a few points being made this morning on the foreign news, in case any Americans are listening: Afghanistan is not and never will be a democracy. Afghanistan is a country in which each section is held by warlords, held in check by the most powerful warlord who can pay everyone else off. The Taliban are not new, and they are not going away. The Taliban reflect a traditional warring party. Karzai is also a warlord. Afghanistan is not a rich country. It’s wealth has always come from being in the way of everything else. Afghanistan has always made its income from transit routes and raiding and controlling key passes. The Afghans will not be persuaded not to grow poppies. the reason that opium works for the Afghan economy is that its is very very profitable, meaning that everyone can take a cut of the markup. Since the economy does not follow a traditional market chain, you can’t replace opium because its not the farmers who have to be subsidized–its the folks who control the passes who ultimately pay off the main warlord. Lastly, the Afghans don’t win wars by fighting large battles. Afghans always win wars by attrition. The only reason that battles occur is because it saps the larger power. Equally, when the invader leaves, the small group that was the biggest irritant to the conqueror will be the rising power when the invader leaves.

Which brings us to Joel Brinkley’s ignorant comments. When the Americans leave, Karzai hopes to be the biggest warlord left standing. Once the Americans are gone, Karzai is going to have to pay off the other warlords to hold the center together. Karzai is going to have to demonstrate to the other warlords that he was not an American puppet in order to survive. He is going to have to pay off the warlords with the traditional source of income–customs duties of people passing to and fro. In short, Karazi is only asking the Americans to respect 2000 years of culture and history. By denying him his right to do that, we’re actually undermining the very warlord we want to support, something that it took the Brits two wars to grasp. It is a famous line that any army can get in to Afghanistan, but getting out is the problem. And that’s what the Afghans base their economy on. This is not news. Joel should have asked his brother.

The United States blundered into Afghanistan in the first place. Like every other great civilization, we are fleeing with our tails between our legs, having achieved nothing and having undermined our own interests. The least we can do is be honest about it.

Rob Meltzer

I heard an interesting discussion on Al Jezeera this morning about Afghanistan, and how strange it is that after twelve years of war, thousands of pages of writings and decades of thinking about Afghanistan, the American government still does not understand Afghanistan. It was reminding me of something I had heard from Ted Kennedy back in the 1980s, that the United States, when it was training the mujahadeen to fight the Soviets, had organized seminars on Afghan history and Afghan tactics throughout history, and how to adapt those tactics to fighting the Soviets. Amazingly, the Taliban are now using those same tactics against the United States, and we seem to be surprised. The Afghanistan book I loved about the British First Afghan War makes the same points.

So here are a few points being made this morning on the foreign news, in case any Americans are listening: Afghanistan is not and never will be a democracy. Afghanistan is a country in which each section is held by warlords, held in check by the most powerful warlord who can pay everyone else off. The Taliban are not new, and they are not going away. The Taliban reflect a traditional warring party. Karzai is also a warlord. Afghanistan is not a rich country. It’s wealth has always come from being in the way of everything else. Afghanistan has always made its income from transit routes and raiding and controlling key passes. The Afghans will not be persuaded not to grow poppies. the reason that opium works for the Afghan economy is that its is very very profitable, meaning that everyone can take a cut of the markup. Since the economy does not follow a traditional market chain, you can’t replace opium because its not the farmers who have to be subsidized–its the folks who control the passes who ultimately pay off the main warlord. Lastly, the Afghans don’t win wars by fighting large battles. Afghans always win wars by attrition. The only reason that battles occur is because it saps the larger power. Equally, when the invader leaves, the small group that was the biggest irritant to the conqueror will be the rising power when the invader leaves.

Which brings us to Joel Brinkley’s ignorant comments. When the Americans leave, Karzai hopes to be the biggest warlord left standing. Once the Americans are gone, Karzai is going to have to pay off the other warlords to hold the center together. Karzai is going to have to demonstrate to the other warlords that he was not an American puppet in order to survive. He is going to have to pay off the warlords with the traditional source of income–customs duties of people passing to and fro. In short, Karazi is only asking the Americans to respect 2000 years of culture and history. By denying him his right to do that, we’re actually undermining the very warlord we want to support, something that it took the Brits two wars to grasp. It is a famous line that any army can get in to Afghanistan, but getting out is the problem. And that’s what the Afghans base their economy on. This is not news. Joel should have asked his brother.

The United States blundered into Afghanistan in the first place. Like every other great civilization, we are fleeing with our tails between our legs, having achieved nothing and having undermined our own interests. The least we can do is be honest about it.