000
FXUS61 KRLX 162309
AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
709 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through tonight. Low pressure system brings a bag
of wintry mixed pcpn late overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...
A high pressure will continue in control of the weather
conditions through at least midnight.
A low pressure system approaches from the west and brings a
warm front during the pre dawn hours to spread mostly rain.
However, temperatures at the surface could drop to sub freezing
levels tonight. The timing of the onset of pcpn over subfreezing
surfaces will produce FZRA and ice accumulations of a tenth of
an inch across the north, ranging to a glace up to a tenth of an
inch across the south.
A winter weather advisory has been expanded further south to
include counties along and north of a line from Kanawha in WV,
northwest to Lawrence OH for late tonight into Saturday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Low exits to our east early Sunday morning with weak high
pressure building in behind it. This should keep us mostly dry
through most of the short term period, but clouds will be on the
increase again Monday morning. Do bring in some chance PoP
across the south Monday afternoon and evening as a warm front
approaches the area. The onset of precipitation should just fall
as rain, but will have to watch for a transition to a wintry mix
in the mountains Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Friday...
Models differ a bit Monday night into Tuesday morning with the
track of a surface low. The Euro is a little further south than
the GFS and this would allow for snow to be the dominant p-type
in the mountains, while the GFS brings in warmer air aloft and
would allow for a wintry mix. As this system moves off the East
Coast it will bring cold air in behind it with below average
temperatures expected once again. Upper trough and NW upslope
flow is starting to look more likely as well Wednesday into
Thursday and although it will officially be the first day of
Spring, their could be some snow flying once again.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM Friday...
VFR conditions can be expected for most of the night. Late
tonight/early Saturday, some rain/freezing rain will move into
the area. This band of rain will push northward across the
region, providing some restrictions. Temperatures will gradually
warm during the morning hours, changing precipitation to all rain.
Some locations could see some IFR restrictions on Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, low Saturday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions Saturday morning
could vary. Restrictions on Saturday could be much better or
worse than forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Saturday night.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-521>526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...RPY