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NCAAF Picks

College Football Picks: Spotting the Perfect Storm for Sharp Action

Our college football picks are predicated on many things but finding those teams that are poised to beat the odds and prove the experts wrong are those that we want to get down on early.

Teams Change for Better or Worse
Teams that the public generally follows are those that are currently undefeated or have only a loss or two on their record. Everyone loves success vicariously or otherwise which is why the big teams that make noise get the most attention. But if we are talking about making money vis a vis the college football odds and locking on to winning ATS schools versus those that simply win outright then we are talking a very different breed of cat. As the season progresses all the hype, attention and nervous anticipation is focused squarely on five or six teams that are gunning for a college football playoff berth. It's only natural that much of the betting action involves the big schools with national exposure.

But because of all that hype schools that are slowly improving get lost in the shuffle. Once a college football team has three or four losses then the interest dips precipitously. However that does not mean that the team in question cannot make us money. Oftentimes those losing programs get cast to the side in favor of bigger games, juicier rivalries and undefeated schools poised for postseason glory. Keep track of the overlooked teams because as the season progresses they can be a bastion of solid college football picks that pad our bankroll.

Look for Young Defensive and Offensive Lines
In the early going these freshman and sophomore lines will often be victimized by more seasoned opponents. Their lack of cohesion and experience will undoubtedly reflect on the scoreboard whether it be a running game that can't get started because there are no holes to be found or a defensive front that can't penetrate causing the secondary to chase receivers all around the field for what seems like an eternity. As the game wears on the secondary gets tired and repeated first downs turn into touchdowns.

However, as these lines become more accustomed to playing with one another you will find that the team scores more points, allows less and begins to keep the games close if not win a few here and there. Like anything else look for teams that are improving regardless of their record. It is exactly why you will see a seemingly toothless underdog get pounded at the betting windows by the sharps while the squares shake their heads in disbelief. These are golden opportunities to fade the public side and get sharp.

New Coach
If you see the perfect storm of a new head coach of a team with many returning starters then you can bet that those players will not be overly enthused about learning a new system and a whole new set of plays. Don't be surprised if that team has a rather stormy start and the college football odds catch up with their confusion. The key is to be in front of that situation rather than watching it unfold like the rest of the nation. Knowing what a team is comprised of before the season can reap bountiful rewards if you do your homework.

However, like any transition the beginning is always more difficult than the end and like the young offensive and defensive lines that gel as the season progresses so too will a solid head coach's system. Watch for the college football odds to swell on these teams as they lose games early in the season. That becomes their reputation and public perception is what the sharps prey on which is why it is vital that any good bettor watch a team grow even if that growth isn't translating into outright wins because all we care about is covering the all-important number.