Prediction: Miami over Dallas in 5, the stats are overwhelming

For mental short-hand, when I don’t feel like digging too far into the stat packages, I usually care about three big stats when comparing NBA teams:

* Point-differential (as anybody who reads this site even semi-regularly should know all too well by now, this is my favorite stat, in any sport);

* FG% differential (your FG% vs. your FG% defense, definitely the most important team stat in the NBA);

* Overall rebound percentage (how many of available rebounds do you get?).

Basically, the three categories quickly sum up how much better, how much more efficient, how you play D, and how you either get extra possessions or make sure your opponent doesn’t over the 82-game schedule.

Advertisement

There are other good stats. And it’s always a match-up game, so of course, you have to think about who’s guarding LeBron James and what Miami will do against Dirk Nowitzki.

-FYI: When I go through the match-ups, I think it favors the Heat, in a similar way that the match-ups tilted Miami’s way vs. Chicago.

-The Heat is very good at swarming a singular offensive threat, particularly if he’s mainly a perimeter scorer. That’s Nowitzki, like it was Derrick Rose in the last series, and now that Udonis Haslem is back, it’s definitely a defensive edge to Miami.

-The Heat is not always so good when it has an opponent that can go inside-outside (the Lakers probably would’ve been a bad match up)…

But Dallas can’t really do that. I think the Mavs are going to need another huge two-way series out of Shawn Marion and I don’t know if he can do it.

Marion will guard James. But can he also score like he’s going to have to… while using up so much energy to stop James from scoring 40?

-OK, my last match-up question: Who is Dallas’ Jason Terry going to guard when Miami takes Mike Bibby off the floor or when Dallas goes small in the backcourt with Terry and JJ Barea, as they like to do in the fourth quarter?

Terry couldn’t guard James Harden in the last series. You think he can stay with Wade for three seconds?

-One more: Who is Peja Stojakovic going to defend if Mike Miller’s off the floor?

But let’s go to the stats for more analysis.

I don’t know why I’ve never run these three stats for the NBA finals opponents, though I’d guess it’s because even without really looking at the stats, we often generally have an implicit idea of the quality comparison.

Advertisement

The 2007 San Antonio Spurs were leagues better than the Cleveland Cavaliers they faced in the finals that year, and we didn’t really need to examine the stats to prove it.

Same thing for the 2002 Lakers vs. the NJ Nets in the finals. Both were sweeps. Detailed analytics were not too featured… or at all necessary for those inevitable 4-0 demolitions.

But now we get to this year’s match-up: A very good Miami team vs. an almost equally as good Dallas team.

I leaned towards Dallas winning it all after the Mavs pummelled the Lakers–how could you not?–and the Mavs didn’t lose much luster while battling tough OKC in the next round.

But the way the Heat pulled apart Chicago gave me serious pause.

So it’s to the stats, to see if they back up my new inclination to pick the Heat, or if they ward me away from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Co…

-Swift conclusion: The big three stats point right to the Miami Big 3.

During the regular season (and the regular-season stats are more telling in these comparisons than the playoff stats, I believe):

* Miami had a +7.5 point-differential, far superior to Dallas’ +4.2.

* Miami had a +0.47 FG-differential (the Heat shot 48.1% and their opponents shot only 43.4%), which was better than Dallas’ +0.25% FG differential (47.5%/45%).

* Miami grabbed 51.8% of the available rebounds, which is better than Dallas’ 50.4% rebound number.

I cannot pick against the team that was so clearly better in those crucial categories. (If you look at the playoff totals, Dallas has had a great +7.2 point-differential, but Miami has a better FG-diff and a far better rebound %.)

Bingo, I’m picking the Heat. The match-ups and the stats say it should be easy, too.

Heat in 5.

Also: after I saw these stats, I started wondering… what’s the recent trend of finals match-ups, using the point-diff, FG-diff, reb% totals as barometers?

Are these three key stats indicators for the championship round?

Well now, that’s right up my alley. And what I found was not surprising, at all.

Here’s the summary: In the previous 10 NBA finals, the team that had the edge in at least 2 of the 3 key categories during the regular season went on to the title 9 out of 10 times.

The only out-lier in this period: The odd-ball 2001 Lakers, who (thanks to Shaq taking A LOT of time off during the season) had a worse point-differential and a worse rebound % than the Philadelphia 76ers, but still won the series in 5.

If we’re drawing an exact comparison to Miami topping Dallas in all three categories this year…

* There have been 5 instances over the previous 10 years when one team has topped the other in all three key categories, and the superior-stat team is 5-0 in those series, with 2 sweeps, 2 victories in five games, and 1 in six games.

The stat-sweep team is 20-6 overall in finals games since 2001.

* The 5 times when one team had a key-category sweep:

-2009 Lakers over Orlando. Lakers win in 5.

-2008 Boston over Lakers. Boston wins in 6.

-2004 Detroit over Lakers. Detroit wins in 5.

-2003 San Antonio over New Jersey. San Antonio wins in 4.

-2002 Lakers over New Jersey. Lakers win in 4.

* Only 2 of the last 10 champions have won the title despite going into the finals match-up with an inferior regular-season point-differential:

-2006 Miami (+3.9) over Dallas (+6.0). Miami wins in 6.

-2001 Lakers (+3.4) over Philadelphia (+4.3). Lakers win in 5.

* Only 1 of the previous 10 champions won the title despite going into the finals with an inferior regular-season FG-differential:

-2010 Lakers (+0.11%) over Boston (+0.32%). Lakers win in 7.

Whew, that’s a lot of stats to toss out there. I wanted to check this. I apologize if others have done this before me, but if they have, I haven’t seen it–and these are my favorite three stats and have been for a while.

Tim Kawakami

Post navigation

Disagree. The stats are not overwhelming, particularly when you look at how Dallas performed in the second half. In fact, I’d say this is a toss up, with Miami’s having a slight edge because of home-court advantage. But I’m going to go out on a limb and say Dallas in five because it just seems like their year.

meyeami

So why do they even need to play then? Just let the refs call it before the clock starts if it’s such an overwhelming guarantee. I’m not even watching the games after reading this article.

The Wisdom Cow

This COULD be a really good series, IMO. I love the possibilities of Dallas getting a game in Miami early. It would bring great pressure to the series. We know Wade would not panic down games to Dallas, but would LeBron possibly press? More important, imagine the pressure on Dirk if they go up by 2 games. Will he close this time? Imagine that pressure if the lead goes away.

If Miami wins the first two, however, the series is done, IMO.

John

Man, and here I thought Miami was going to win. Congrats Dallas on your title.

Cowboyman

Not sure that regular season stats are “apples and oranges” here. Miami had better stats in a weaker conference. Or maybe I just hate the thought of the Lebronians winning the title.

Ron

I think Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd are the keys. Those positions are Miami’s weak spots and Dallas must get a big edge there. If not Miami’s big three will win the other battle and the title.

Threeputt

Miami_Chicago Game 1, when the Bulls blew em out by 21 points, they dominated them inside. That is obviously Miami’s soft spot. But Dallas just isn’t built to capitalize on this, The biggest advantage Dallas has is their depth. And Dirk, who is just playing sensational basketball. But Miami’s got the big 3, and Haslem and Miller gave tham some help. Have to agree with TK. Miami in 5 or 6.

Go Warriors

Get ready for one of the greatest finals ever. MIA in 6 or 7. Ya DAL will have trouble guarding the big 3, but who on MIA can guard Dirk, Barrea, and the host of 3 point options when the Heat defense swarms Dirk. Both teams have shown the ability to find clutch offense in the closing moments of each game, and you will see it going down to the wire in this series. Key for DAL survival in this series is their bench puts up mad points while MIA’s bench has been semi productive.

robert rowell

i’d like to see kidd get his, but this is a pick ’em series. both teams have been pretty dominant in the post season (12-3), have been able to win scrappy games when they weren’t performing their best. dirk can go inside/outside, tho with his age, not sure he actually wants to any more. agree with others that Chandler is the X factor. if he guards the paint and rebounds, the mavs have more than an equal chance.

Kenny

Interesting analysis as always. You should make a composite score by using all three stat categories and for each playoff team look to see if this score can be used to predict playoff success. For example, Team A is ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the 3 categories, thus has a composite score of 3+4+5 = 12. Rank all the teams by the score (lower the better), and see if the score correlates with playoff success.

Also, I’d be interested in seeing your analysis for the last 20 years to include the Jordan era teams.

http://eyemsick.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

robert rowell, I think Chandler is going to have a huge series.

Mano de Nada

Some considerations; DAL won the regular season games, is significantly stronger at the most crucial positions of PG and C, comes from the better conference and just beat the better teams to get here, and has the depth to grind out a long series. Most importantly, Eric Dampier has most recently played for MIA, and his curse remains potent. DAL in 6.

http://www.zackdiliberto.com Zack D

Interesting stuff, Tim! I’m a huge Dirk/Mavs fan. But I have to agree with you. I can’t see them beating the Heat and I also don’t see it being a tough 6 or 7 game series. Hope I’m wrong. I’ve never seen those stat categories put out there before. Seems they are a pretty consistent indication though. The only thing I question is, like one of your readers said, Dallas was a better team the 2nd half of the season. If Dirk plays out of his mind like he’s been, who knows. I can dream can’t I?

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

From the second Stephen A. Smith broke out the news of the Bosh and LeBron signings to join Wade in Miami, I immediately crowned the Heat NBA Champions – and was ridiculed by my friends (barring major injury, of course). Title run, on schedule so far.

The Dallas Mavericks have Dirk, Tyson Chandler – who is the wildcard here, and a deep bench of quality veteran role players and former stars – the best that Mark Cuban’s windfall profits can buy. The Mavericks will make their mark on the series, and a defensive, shot blocking center CAN change the series if Chandler TREMENDOUSLY steps up his A game, but inevitably – the team with the best players usually wins best of 7 series (in this case, the Heat).

Heat in 5 or 6 sounds about right.

UNC 89

TK,

Love the article and the homework you provide. I am one who thinks you have to watch the games and that in the NBA match-ups come first. I totally agree with TK’s assessment on Miami advantage regarding match-ups and I cannot imagine why no one has commented on how overwhelming the stats TK quotes are in favoring Miami. Yes, Dallas got better as the season wore on, but so did Miami and the regular season stats for Miami really do not include Haslem or Miller since they were both hurt most of the year.

The other big, big X factor not by TK or GoWarriors is that LeBron at crunch time can actually guard Dirk without help. Will he stop Dirk, no, but he will bother him and at minimum make him work harder to score and most importantly others will not have to leave and double Dirk so all those Dallas guys can be played straight up and they will not be near as effective as they have been since all other teams had to double Dirk. This is a really big advantage for Miami. Barring something crazy such as an injury, this series looks like it’s going to Miami. Funny that it will bother many of the haters out there…

jsteez

FG % is nice, but True FG% is more important, as it takes into account 3pt shooting.

If Miami has to double Dirk, then Dallas wins based on 3pt shooting (primarily Terry & Kidd) and perimeter ball movement, courtesy of Jason Kidd. Still think Miami can guard Dirk 1v1 with LeBron, with Bosh and Haslem also taking turns; Marion better hit corner 3s if he’s on the court, otherwise he’s an offensive liability. Conversely, he’ll give LeBron fits with his D.

Twinkie defense

Miami will crush all comers to take the title. Was that not evident on day one of the season?

When your best guy is better than their best guy, your second-best guy is better than their second-best guy, and your third-best guy is better than their third-best guy… well, there aren’t too many ways for this to end.

greg438

I’m no big Heat fan, but:

The only way Dallas wins this series is if JJ Barera has an amazing series. The Heat can defend everyone else on the Mavs (although Dirk will score well, Terry, Kidd, Marion will not be difference makers).

To the Heat, Dallas is basically another version of Chicago; they’re a great offensive team and an ok defensive team, much like Chicago proved to be a great defensive team and an ok offensive team. Unfortunately, the Heat can be great at both ends of the floor.

Gman

For those that love basketball….game seven is heaven…..the added drama of Miami and Dallas again….the Dallas breakdowns (the finals and then the we believe” series) in their past…the Miami coup of free agents….the 3rd times the charm for Jason Kidd…the D Wade is the real king of bball after suffering in Miami for a few seasons after Shaq…the 2 best teams at buying their success….Dirk trying to earn his place in history…Lebron trying to remove the tarnish on his crown….all the coat-tail riders having a shot at the title like dampier, bibby, house, magalore, howard, …its all drama

Martin Brody

Call me a Heat hater. On paper Miami has the better team, but the game is played on the court not on paper. Mark my words Dallas Mavericks in 7. Dirk Nowitzki will win MVP. 😆

slimman

I think you underestimate Dallas. Dirk is difficult to guard. Even LeBron, who is arguably the best defender in the NBA, will have trouble with him because of his height. They will have to put two defenders on him and force him to pass. If the other members of the Mavs can knock down their shots, it will be a long series for Miami. Miami’s two positions of weakness are strengths for Dallas, point guard and center. Dallas also has a deeper bench. I know Miami signed all sorts of B stars like Jones and Miller, but I still think Dallas’s bench is superior. Dwayne Wade will undeservedly get to the charity stripe, but he is the most over-rated player in the NBA.

People say Chandler will be the X-factor for the series. Miami does not have anyone who can come close to competing with him inside. the X-factor will be officiating that favors the Heat, racking up cheap fouls on Chandler and keeping him off the floor. What was the free throw differential in 2006? Did Donaghy ref it? The only corrupt officiating that was more egregious than that Game 3 was Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals where Kobe shot 20+ free throws and the entire Kings team shot 0. The Mavs will be playing 5 on 7, you can bank on it. The NBA needs to address the lack of credibility in officiating during the strike this year; they are risking looking like the WWF. I think Miami will win in 6, but because of the officiating, not because they are the better team.

Dean oliver

somebody has been reading my book, “Basketball On Paper”!

http://ihatemydvr.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

Well, Dirk has a torn tendon, which changes things dramatically. No Diggler, no hope for Dallas, or so it would seem.

Ron

Kidd & Chandler had ordinary games and Miami wins going away.

http://www.laphotospot.com Headshots Los Angeles

Wow that was a great 4th quarter. Dirk and the Mavs stayed in the game. Maybe the Heat was a little to Cocky. And that’s nothing new for Lebron.

Fire Bob Fitzgerald

Good call on this series TK!

Mano de Nada

Uhmmm check post 12 for the accurate call on the series, mates…

I don’t do it for $$$, I just do it for the unbridled opportunity to talk scheiße!