November 05, 2012

All signs are pointing to a busy winter
for the Toronto Blue Jays. There are holes in the starting rotation,
and the management actually looks willing to fill them, even if that
means spending some money.

And they are going to have money to
spend, too. Kelly Johnson and his $6 million contract is on his way
out, which will leave the Toronto payroll in the $70 million range.
The speculation is that Rogers will be dropping some cash this
offseason, so the extra budget is encouraging.

If ownership wants payroll to get back
to the Vernon Wells days, the Jays have a good $20 million to burn.
Clearly the majority of that will go towards mending the starting
staff. It is just too tempting to connect the dots, as the biggest
pitcher on the market, Zack Greinke, will probably sign for close to
that kind of money.

The though of Greinke filling the
number one spot in the rotation is enough to make every Blue Jays fan
salivate. In an era when any and every half-decent pitcher gets
labelled an Ace, this guy is on of the few true Aces in the game. He
is young, durable, and ridiculously consistent. Toronto is desperate
for the kind of security Zack Greinke can offer.

Let's try to think straight for a
second, though. Is Greinke really the best option for the Blue Jays?

He is the sexiest option, no doubt
about it. Every team fantasizes ever landing the biggest fish on the
market. But there lies the problem, doesn't it? There is hardly a
single club that will not consider going after such a talent. Yeah,
that bumps up his salary, but more importantly, there will be a ton
of teams that will end up waiting and waiting and waiting on
Greinke's decision, just to lose out in the end.

With so many holes to fill, does GM
Alex Anthopoulos have the luxury to wait? He would have to hold off
on all other free agents, all the money would be tied up in the
massive offer. Greinke would almost surely sign elsewhere, the other
solid starters would have been gobbled up in the meantime, and the
Blue Jays would be pretty much screwed.

Why even mess with that possibility?
Anthopoulos would be better off playing it safe and going after the
second tier free agents right off the bat. Clearly there are a bunch
off players who fall under this category, but for the sake of
argument we'll go with a couple obvious ones in Dan Haren and Anibal
Sanchez.

Without going into too much painful
detail, both Sanchez and Haren are guys you can expect to get 30
starts out of every season, and you will get an ERA well into the
3.00 range to boot. Most importantly, neither of these guys will
fetch a lot more that $12 million. That means, theoretically, Toronto
can put offers in for the two players at the same time, and be
relatively comfortable with their chances or getting either one.

Heck, getting both of them wouldn't be
the end of the world, would it? It wouldn't cost much more than
Greinke on his own...

Dreaming aside, it would be much easier
to reel in either Haren or Sanchez, since most lines will be cast at
Zack Greinke anyhow. And as much as the average fan will scoff at the
notion of bargain hunting, it makes too much sense for the club long
term to leave some financial space.

Don't forget that Edwin Encarnacion's
new 3-year, $27 million-deal kicks in next year, that will eat up
some budget on its own. Even more ominous, although the Blue Jays
control Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero until 2015 and 2016,
respectively, by that time the club options will have Morrow making
$10 million and Romero making just oven $13 million.

These are three substantial raises all
within five year's time. That money has to come from somewhere Even
after all these inevitable expenses, surely Toronto will want some
flexibility for winters to come. It is impossible to predict what
kind of needs this team is going to have in the coming years, but one
thing is for sure: the Blue Jays will not remain competitive if they
lack the money to improve every season.

If the Blue Jays try keep the core of
the team together, all while paying Zack Greinke's salary, they are
going to have a tough time staying relevant for very long. Countless
teams go down this road; they get their dream-team for the first
couple of years, but piece-by-piece the club falls apart, as they can
no longer afford a respectable supporting cast.

This is not the vision the Toronto Blue
Jays have for themselves. The front office has said it time and time
again, they are committed to building a ball club that will contend
year-in, year-out. Why sacrifice that dream for a single pitcher?

Having a legitimate Ace is overrated anyway. Yeah, all the experts are going to preach that no team can
compete without one, but let's face it, the Toronto Blue Jays had an
Ace for years. His name was Roy Halladay. He brought the franchise
absolutely nowhere in eleven years with the club. Meanwhile, the
Oakland A's and the Baltimore Orioles are playing October baseball
with pitchers nobody has even heard of.

Toronto has to ditch the brand name and
go for value. Dan Haren and Anibal Sanchez are seriously good
pitchers, and, honestly, the drop-off in price will be considerably
steeper than the drop-off in performance.