A high-profile New Democratic Party MP is stepping down to seek a seat in the May 12 B.C. election, giving the minority Conservative government a chance to win back a swing riding.

Dawn Black, the NDP's defence critic, will resign her federal seat in New Westminster-Coquitlam shortly, she said. She is expected to run uncontested for the NDP nomination in the provincial riding of New Westminster.

Black's decision to leave Ottawa for what the Globe calls a “safe seat for the BC New Democrats” frees-up her federal seat, which is anything but safe for the NDP.

Indeed, it was held by Reform/Alliance/Conservative Paul Forseth since 1993 before Black took it by just under 3000 votes in 2006. And last fall, she barely squeaked-out a victory over Conservative Yonah Martin (now one of Harper's new Senators) by just 1488 votes. Liberal Michelle Hassen finished well back of the pair, and Green Party candidate Marshall Smith managed a respectable 7.2 per cent of the vote which is just above the party's national average of 6.8 per cent, but below their BC average of 9.4 per cent.

With Black leaving and Martin off to patronage heaven (hey, maybe she'll resign from the Senate and run for the seat? Don't hold your breath), both the NDP and Conservatives will have new candidates. Who both parties find to run for them will be very interesting. Hey, Paul Forseth is an active blogger, maybe he'll run again? Would be interesting.

While the Liberals haven't been a factor in this riding in years, they did make it interesting when former IWA boss Dave Haggard ran for the Liberals as one of Paul Martin's star candidates in 2004, finishing third but just 2600 votes back of the pack. If the Liberals can find a name, they could stir thing-up.

It's shaping-up as a real NDP-Conservative dog fight though, and if May does indeed fulfill her promise and contest this seat, it will be a very interesting wild card. While it's oversimplification to say the Greens draw more from the left than the right, in a race this tight, I'd have to say that with Black's departure there's a better than even chance for this seat to go Conservative. Particularly if there's any blowback against the NDP for Black's decision to resign just five months into her term.

6 comments:

Elizabeth May doesn't want to relocate. She apparently loves living in a riding where when it comes to electing their federal politicians prefer them obtuse and close-minded. Anyone remember Roseanne Skoke?

If May doesnt take a run at a seat that is in a green friendly region of the country, it further shows the greens are not serious about federal politics because I dont think she can ever beat Peter McKay given the help the Liberals gave her last election.

If May doesnt take a run at a seat that is in a green friendly region of the country, it further shows the greens are not serious about federal politics because I dont think she can ever beat Peter McKay given the help the Liberals gave her last election.

Latest polls show Green support at 12% in Atlantic Canada. That's the highest in the country. BC's GPC support is at 9%.

I reckon maybe Lizzie bought some down east goodwill by holding the GPC Convention in Pictou a coupla weeks ago.

This thing about MacKay possibly leaving Parliament to head up NATO would mean there'd be no MacKay family dynasty factor in a Central Nova byelection. Of course, tar sands apologist Ignatieff has declared no more Red-Green deals and Lizzie'd need to go up against all 3 major parties. If MacKay gets the NATO job, I don't see much choice but for Elizabeth to run in CN.