The Warriors’ Bogut shutdown: 7 to 10 days? This could and probably should be much longer than that

My apologies, I was out of pocket when the news hit this afternoon, but here it is: The Warriors and Andrew Bogut announced that due to some lingering issues with his surgically repaired left ankle, he will not play in any games for at least 7 to 10 days.

That’s the next 3 games for sure (through the home game vs. Atlanta next Wednesday) and, logic would dictate, probably most or all of the three-game road trip that follows.

If that’s the scenario, it’d push the next decision to the days around Nov. 21, a home game vs. Brooklyn on the day before Thanksgiving. Or later. Maybe much later.

I’d think the Warriors and Bogut should and will be extremely careful from here on, because the one thing they logically said they wanted to avoid going back to summertime is an on/off, OK/re-aggravation scenario, just like Steph Curry went through last season.

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This is now the first on/off situation, which was possibly caused by Bogut’s desire to get out there for the season-opener and play as much and as early as possible; today Bogut said he probably pushed it too much.

The Warriors can’t keep doing this–the risk of Bogut further damaging his ankle is just too much, and maybe it already is very close to the breaking point.

All of this points to a longer shutdown than 7 to 10 days. Perhaps much longer, if everyone is calm and wise through this.

I’m thinking a month or even 2 months wouldn’t be a terrible conservative time-frame on this–check back two weeks after Thanksgiving, or in the days nearing Christmas… so just the Warriors and Bogut will know there was no over-optimistic/risky decision-making going on here.

It’s not like the Warriors would be blowing a shot at the No. 1 seed in the West by being extra careful with Bogut.

We all saw Bogut limping in Sacramento two games ago, and certainly he wasn’t very explosive in any of the games–he was very effective at times, but he sure wasn’t near 100%.

A) There’s still some damage in that ankle that further examination will find and will have to be cleaned up (which would result in a long period on the sidelines). NOT the optimal situation, obviously.

Or…

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B) A little/long rest will calm everything down and Bogut can resume play at near 100% and then work himself into a better and better spot (the best GSW scenario).

This is now OPTIMAL, after the long months of rehab and playing it relatively cautiously to this point, and now the Warriors and Bogut have to be 10X cautious.

Or…

C) This is just how the ankle is going to be for now and maybe for longer, and Bogut will have to learn to play through the pain and either adapt to being a lesser player or figure out how to retain effectiveness through the pain/limitations.

I think C is the most likely answer, though not close to optimal.

That’s a blurry condition–everything is indefinite and up to Bogut’s ability to push through ankle pain and stiffness; some days it will probably feel OK, some days it will feel awful, maybe for the rest of his career.

But the Warriors knew they were taking a gamble when they traded Monta Ellis to get Bogut, and I don’t think they would reverse the trade now, even knowing the Bogut continued ankle tribulations.

If it comes to it, Bogut at 60-70% for the rest of his career is an upgrade for the Warriors, though not as much as they’d hoped, clearly.

The only reason the Warriors had a shot a potential franchise-changing center like Bogut was because of his ankle injury–you assume the risk to get the possible reward.

Meanwhile, for the doctors who said the ankle would not be a long-term issue when the Warriors made the trade–and then said it again and again, according to the Warriors–well, I’d say there could be some discussion about those pronouncements.

For now, the Warriors just have to exhale, let the clock run, and then let it run some more, then check back and see what they’ve got with Bogut. If they rush him back without a real answer, nobody is really helped by that.

However this plays out, I continue to be encouraged. This is a smart front office and coaching staff, the assemblage of players is cohesive and unselfish, and the organization in general is going in a positive direction. There’s always a degree of risk and uncertainty in the NBA, especially around injuries, so you just have to do the best with what you’re given. I think the Warriors are doing that.

DirkSuave

I think this helps in a way. Festus is gonna get good solid minutes to learn his NBA position. Don’t get me wrong having a healthy Bogut is better but Ezili has shown some spark and is a tough defender. Just for giggles this might get Biedrins behind off the wood. Use those 6 fouls Beans!! But seriously I hope Bogut can get healthy and contribute after the All Star break. Could be what we need to keep a playoff spot or push for one.

InjuriesWellDeserved

good to see rush get hurt and bogut get hurt

Tyler

I think this is a good move, despite the fact Bogut was actually was being a strong contributor when he was in there. I am afraid that Bogut’s injury will encourage Jackson to keep playing the landry-lee tandom in the frontcourt. I understand that lineup is strong offensively, but it is such a liability defensively to give up points down low. I hope Jackson follows his word and uses Biedrins in games because David Lee guards nobody. While the offense at times looks good in spots, when jumpshots start missing (klay and steph), our defense seems to go with it. Thats going to cause us to see huge swings in runs, from up 17 to tied back to up 10 (cavs game). We need to keep that defensive presence regardless of how our offense is performing. This seems to be lost whenever david lee is on the court. David brings a lot to the table offensively and he will have to carry us in spots, but I think Jackson needs to have a little bit tighter leash on Lee when he is not playing that well (see first 3 games). Jackson cannot be afraid to pull Lee and play ezeli-landry or biedrins-landry in spots, especially if we need a stop near the end of games.

William

When Bogut was healthy a few years ago, he was a third-team all-NBA selection, putting him among the top 15 players in the NBA at that time. He is still only 27-years-old. In his short time with the Warriors, we can already see flashes of that player on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s hope his ankle heals properly and he can get back to playing 30+ minutes per game. If that happens, the Warriors will flourish.

Nigel Tufnel

This seems like a really aggressively pessimistic view of the situation, based on the available evidence. “Bogut at 60-70% for the rest of his career”…come on man, we don’t know anything about this yet, maybe it’s just a little soreness.

I think they made a huge error in letting him come back and play before he was ready. Shut him down until it is 100%, even if that means waiting until January.

Now with that said, we are not empty in the center, as Festus Ezeli is a revelation, but for some reason Mark Jackson feels the need to play David Lee at Center. That is a losing proposition. The corpse of Andris Biedrins is a far better option than Lee in the middle.

The trade was a good one regardless, here’s wishing Andrew a speedy recovery, as he is already my favorite Warrior.

gw

John, that is just idiotic. Sorry. He’s two to three weeks into a recovery that will take a while and requires patience. If you expected Bogut to come out and play brilliantly right from the get go in what is his preseason basically, you are out of your mind.
Whatever amount of time it takes for Bogut to get right, it was still a steal on the Warriors side. Bogut is a top five or even top 3 center once healed (and he will, just not miraculously fast) whereas Ellis is an undersized but exciting scorer who makes teams worse, period.
The Warriors are for the most part handling this well, though I would prefer they just say, ‘We’re keeping Bogut shut down and bringing the healing process along slowy, regardless of fan response.’

gw

Slimman, very well said. I enjoy your posts here and in Adam’s blog. This will give, as you say, Festus more of an opportunity to get game play and I believe he will develop extremely quickly into a very good center. I can’t believe I’m excited about the Warriors prospects of having one of the best center tandems in the league. Wow.

Huge Grant

This W’s management team has shown that is indeed different in many ways, but this is an example of the same ole, same ole: another terrible decision made only to appease the ticket-buying fans and put the media at bay. It would have been a PR disaster if Bogut wasn’t in the Game 1 starting lineup.

Let’s see… he was cleared for his first full practice in almost a year… then a few days later was playing full-bore in a regular season game. Who does that with any player, let alone their Franchise center?? The Dubs, that’s who.

FeatherRiverDan

Look out for small ball now…..

Russell Cross

Can you say “Bill Walton.” Big men with gimpy feet not a good thing.

orangeandblack

Pro sports is not about feeling good. That being said, it is about being effective. A bad ankle is BRUTAL in basketball. Shut him down, rehab, and wait until he is good and ready to return. If a measured assessment after time off is it doesn’t look like it’s going to come back all the way, look at plan C & D (replacement) scenarios.

“He’s two to three weeks into a recovery that will take a while and requires patience.” Uh, no, you’re only about six months off. He’s nearly 6 1/2 MONTHS into a recovery. So if he’s still hobbling around, they can spin it any way they want, the guy needs another operation.

SoCalWarrior

Huge – He wasn’t just let loose to play “full bore” in games. He was on a 20 minute per game limit, never playing more than six straight at any time.

They put him out there for an early stretch, and the W’s went 3-2.

It will be interesting to see how the W’s do over the next two weeks. Let’s already count the Lakers as a loss.

I do agree that the W’s should shut him down now until he’s fully ready to return. On and off the DL all season would not be good.

Sure wish they had amnestied Biedrins so they can sign a legit backup Center.

Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle yesterday in Van Nuys, California, it was announced today. The surgery, which was performed by Dr. Richard Ferkel, cleaned out loose particles and bone spurs in the ankle. It is anticipated that Bogut will return to basketball-related activities in three months and will be ready for the start of training camp in October.

Bogut, who was acquired by the Warriors on March 13 from the Milwaukee Bucks, suffered a fractured left ankle on January 25 against the Houston Rockets and missed the remainder of the season, including the final 27 games with Golden State.”

By the way, in all the years of billions of bullspit professional sports press releases, when is the first time we will ever see one that says a guy underwent “unsuccessful surgery.” Apparently unsuccessful surgery in professional sports is a myth and a legend, kind of like Bigfoot.

deano

I’d go with Lee at back-up center over Biedrins against any team. Lee was not good at the position last season, and he’s no better now; but now he has Landry to play alongside him at PF, which is a huge improvement over last season. Plus, Beans is worthless. We know this. Lee at least has offensive value.

AJT

#21 … how about doing a little bit of reading about the medical procedure and typical recovery time based upon a long track record of athletes having the surgery. I don’t mean reading more bullspit issued by the franchise. Unless he plans on hobbling around for the rest of his career, they’re going to have to do another procedure. I’m guessing they’ll want to limit the lousy PR and try to put it off until late April, or mid May if they squeeze into the playoffs.

Noplayoffs

Without a better coach, no way we make the playoffs. You can’t give the keys to an F1 car to a Nascar Driver. Of course you would have parts blowing out in the track. Tires will be worn before they should. And to top it all, blowing up a perfectly oiled engine. It would take skill, talent and experience to avoid failure. We do not have that in Mark Jackson. I don’t understand why people would be surprised by the results. You can’t make bad decisions and just hope for the best outcome. In the real world it’s not the way it works. Mixed results it’s the biggest sing of incompetence, one day a hero the next a Moron. It is actually the worst place to be. Keeps hopes up because of moments of success followed by failure. No surprise here.

Their is no need to hire a motivator for a team that has been loaded with good weapons. Playing with Rush like a 14 year old girl not letting him know if he just lost a starting spot until the last minute it’s just plain stupid. Rush didn’t have to go out and prove that he deserved the starting spot and go all out when the season is just starting. Playing so well and still feeling like you have to keep proving yourself releases as much adrenalin as needed to break something. With this being your knee or someone else’s. Players take this things very seriously, a good leader would have started Rush during opening ceremony and then put him in the bench if he wanted after a couple minutes. Instead the opposite was done, the rookie enjoyed the festivities and the other guy just had to go to work. To me this kind of people management doesn’t work.

Kind of reminds me of another coach. You know that 49ers coach that would call players to the sidelines in the middle of the game. Even high school coaches have some type of respect for their players. Now just imagine a preacher telling you how to do your job. I would quit on this stupid coach if I was a player. I would love to see him coach somebody like Kobe. From what I heard he took a lot of players to his congregation while he was preaching when they were in LA. As a player I wouldn’t want to be concerned that if I wasn’t in the crowd if it would mean that my minutes would be affected. Just sounds like a bunch of garbage and drama that would kill a team.

Now we have to wait until the front office get’s enough proof that this guy is a Idiot, hire another guy and wait again for us (warriors) to rebuild the team again and hope that this time we made the right choice. I would say another 2 years to have another chance at it. In the meantime we can just wait for Curry to break his brittle ankles by playing 40 minutes per game after being out for a long period. When that happens in the next five games or so just don’t act as it it’s just because of our bad luck.

If the front office was smart enough they would eat as much money as they had to and fire Jackson on the spot. That would send a message of what is expected.

How different would this team be if Ellison had bought this team. We are screwed. We need an alpha male running this team, not Lacob. The team has been diminished to about 80% of it’s potential and it’s only the first few games. Might as well just start tanking again and aim for the draft. Couple more mistakes and we are doomed AGAIN.

Noplayoffs

I didn’t even mentioned that playoffs were already guaranteed last season. Failure, failure, failure. But I don’t even want to get into that. I don’t have time to be in blogs. Specially the goldenstateofmind freaks. Glad TK remembers to blog about the dubs once in a while. Don’t know how he finds time with so many other Bay Area teams doing so well.

Ron

Ankles take a long time to be 100%. I badly sparined mine (not broken) years ago and was in a soft cast for a month. It was several months after returning to play sports that it did not bother me, so he may just need to play through some pain and swelling even when it is at 100% strength.

AJT

Ron, in other words, they traded for damaged goods. That’s not what they thought they traded for, and this Dr. Richard Ferkel guy didn’t do the job. One more season after this on his massive contract. So after he’s sick and tired of taking injections and takes a massive cut in pay on a one-year deal on a vet’s minimum contract with somebody other than the Warriors, he’ll be back in Australia playing with the neighborhood cockatiels after being forced into a premature retirement like Mister Turkey, Mehmet Okur.

Latvian FT Machine

I just moved up a spot in the rotation! Now I am only behind Ezeli, Lee, Landry, Tyler, any potential new signing an the D league call ups.

Dude

None of you – including TK – do enough reading to make any pronouncements. There is a recent interview by MT with Bogut that has most of the details.

Dr. Ferkel has been in the loop continually, including frequent physical examinations of the ankle.

The Warriors PR release posted in a comment is simply false when it says “3 months”, since Ferkel said 6 months when he did the operation.

What Bogut says is that his ankle strength is insufficient for him to push off it to grab a rebound, so he needs to switch from playing to ankle strengthening.

Ferkel is known for success in fixing ankles of many sports stars, and correcting improperly done ankle surgery of others.

Generally, I think the B scenario is the correct one, but skepticism is certainly appropriate for a journalist, especially considering the incorrect statement in the Warriors PR release.

Eezap Skeezap

We can talk about not using the amnesty on Biedrins and the crazy David Lee contract, two missteps that loom large whenever something goes wrong, but I prefer to view this situation a little more optimistically. And no, I’m not Bob Fitzgerald.

The way I see it here, Bogut shutting himself down is actually a good thing in both the short and long run. Short run, this gives the big Aussie additional time to heal up, which yes, should have been the plan from the start. I would not have cried foul if Bogut had missed the first 10 games of the season to ensure he was ready. Dude is a huge man whose ankle needs to be right. Hold him out until it is. He’s hardly a wuss, seems like he’s actually an intelligent team player. Maybe he’ll even use the time off to shave that ridiculous beard.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bogut is in and out of the lineup all year ala 4 games on, 2 games off as he deals with ankle swelling, fitness concerns and the like. The point should be to make sure he is improving rather than devolving as the season goes along. Thus, I see this as the best action given the situation.

The Warriors knew what they were getting into when they traded for him, and I’m quite sure this hiccup and others like them were well within the range of probability when they analyzed the trade. This also makes the drafting of Festus that much more appealing. Long run, let Festus get some additional seasoning. Festus has got all kinds of nasty in him and I’m excited to see more of it. When Bogut is right, the front court toughness will be that much more.

For me–especially since this Bogut scenario hardly suggests a lost season for either Bogut or the Warriors (who, by the way, are looking better than they have since the We Believe season)–that with Klay and Festus on the squad, even this prickly situation is better than a non-playoff team with Ellis and Biedrins as the primary cogs. I still favor this team’s upside.

Huge Grant

SoCal, we’re splitting hairs here. By “full bore” I meant full speed, not a full 48. How do you let a guy go full speed in a game when he was just cleared to run a few days earlier? I don’t care what the player is telling you, you just do your job and manage the recovery in a way that, you know, makes sense.

AJT

#30, Dude, what are you talking about. The press release they issued in April was based upon what the doctor told them. He is going to need another surgery, that was his second surgery on the ankle, anybody with any sense knows it. Of course Bogut isn’t going to say he pretty much knows he’ll needs another operation, the guy’s not a moron.