Probably around $180 million. It will be months before we know the exact price of the inauguration, but the cost of these events in recent years has risen at roughly the same rate as inflation. President Bush’s 2005 inaugural cost $158 million, which is $173 million in 2009 dollars. That happens to be just a little more than the $170 million spent on President Obama’s 2009 inauguration.* If the trend continues, the 2013 festivities will cost about $10 million more. If you had to bet, you might expect this year’s inauguration to come in a little bit lower. Nearly twice as many people attended the 2009 swearing-in, when there were 10 inauguration balls, compared to just two this year.

The swearing-in itself is a relative bargain, costing just $1.24 million in 2009. It’s the logistics and the carousing that add up. Security, transportation, and emergency services cost $124 million four years ago, paid almost entirely by the federal government. (Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. cover some of the expenses upfront, but Uncle Sam reimburses them.) The parties and balls that followed the inauguration totaled roughly $45 million, paid entirely by private donations to President Obama’s inaugural committee.

Correction, Jan. 23, 2013: This article original stated that the 2005 inauguration cost slightly less than the 2009 inauguration in inflation-adjusted terms. It cost slightly more. (Return to the corrected sentence.)