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A new logistic regression model for geostorms forecasting

The Sun is the main driver of space weather. Space weather is determining the state of the Earth magnetosphere, which, in its turn, triggers geomagnetic storms.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are pieces of the puzzle that drive space weather. They are one of the most important pieces, because of their large quantities of magnetised plasma released into the heliosphere. An Earth directed CME can hit the magnetosphere about 2-4 days after its initial detection, but not all CMEs arriving to Earth will produce a geomagnetic storm.

Numerous methods (theoretical, numerical and empirical) are being used to predict whether the CME will be geoeffective or not. In a recent paper, a team of researchers lead by D. Beșliu-Ionescu have proposed a new logistic regression model that will produce a probability, expressed as a number between 0 and 1, that a CME will be an event associated with a geomagnetic storm (Beșliu-Ionescu et al., 2019).