June 10, 2018

A new poll conducted by America First Action Super PAC, President Donald Trump’s official Super PAC, shows that Democrats in Ohio are in serious trouble of losing their re-election bids while House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi proves to be an anchor on her party’s November chances.

The poll, provided exclusively to Breitbart News ahead of its public release, perhaps most surprisingly shows incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in danger of potentially losing to GOP Senate nominee Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH). The survey shows Brown, who was thought to be safe without a serious chance of losing in November, only leading Renacci by 4 points–inside the poll’s margin of error. The statistical tie between Renacci and Brown in this key rust belt state means the populist Brown is going to have a fight on his hands from Renacci and the GOP, as this key rust belt state that voted overwhelmingly–more than 8 percent–for Trump over Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2016 presidential election is heating up.

In the survey, Brown is at 45 percent while Renacci is at 41 percent with 10 percent “firmly undecided.” The survey of 400 respondents conducted from May 29 to May 31 using a combination of landlines, cell phones, and internet responses has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The survey includes 41 percent Republicans including leaners, 40 percent Democrats including leaners, and 19 percent independents.

The fact that this race is close certainly troubles Democrats. Republicans already have solid shots at Senate pickups in a bunch of other states like West Virginia where pro-Trump conservative Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey faces Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, Montana where pro-Trump conservative Republican Matt Rosendale faces Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, and other states like Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, and many more. Ohio was previously thought to be a lock for Brown, but this new data opens up the map for the GOP meaning national Democrats will probably have to flood the Buckeye State to protect one of their most important incumbents in Brown.

It’s also interesting that all of this happens as Trump negotiates new trade deals with world leaders, aims for a deal on denuclearization on North Korea, and is seeing the economy under his administration booming with record low unemployment statistics and rising wages. Brown is known as a populist, and even praised Trump on some elements of trade renegotiation, so this Senate race between Brown and Renacci could very well become a clear referendum on the popularity of President Trump’s successes with the economy and on the world stage with tariffs.

Democrats fare even worse in the governor’s race, as GOP nominee and former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine–the GOP nominee for governor–leads Democrat nominee former director of the since-renamed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Richard Cordray by seven points. That lead is well outside the margin of error. DeWine, at 45 percent, leads Cordray, who is down at 38 percent. There are 10 percent undecided.

That Cordray is doing so horribly seems to be a rebuke by the Ohio voters of the far-left wing of the Democratic Party. Cordray comes from the same school of thought as potential 2020 presidential candidates Sens. Liz Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT). If Cordray does this badly on election day, it could spell serious problems for Warren, Sanders, and other hardcore leftists in their party for presidential chances–and all of this is evidenced by the Democratic donor class actively looking for an alternative to them who is not as leftist as they are. CNBC, for instance, reported on Friday that top Democratic Party donors are secretly pushing Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) to launch a 2020 presidential campaign to box out the far leftists who are sure to lose to Trump in November 2020.

“These private conversations have been on since the start of 2018 but the Virginia lawmaker has declined to commit to making a run for the White House, those sources say,” the CNBC report says of Democrat donors pushing Warner to run.

The reason why Democrats seem to be struggling in Ohio–and around the country–is contained in the next explosive newsworthy fact from this poll: President Trump is far more trusted and popular than Pelosi. When asked who they trust more to lead the nation, respondents overwhelmingly said President Trump and the GOP in Congress over Pelosi and Democrats in Congress. Trump leads Pelosi by double digits in this regard in Ohio, as 45 percent sided with him and Republicans whereas just 35 percent sided with Pelosi and Democrats.

America First Action Super PAC is President Trump’s official super PAC, so of course these results should be viewed through that lens. But the fact that the Senate race, governor’s race, and the generic fight between Trump and Pelosi are each in the respective places they are right now–much better for the GOP than most prognosticators and pundits who preach conventional political wisdom would have you believe–is a boon for the GOP and offers a huge opportunity for the party to put the squeeze on the Democrats.

Technically speaking, too, the names Pelosi and Trump are not on the ballot this year–with the exception of in Pelosi’s congressional district in California, which she will win handily, where she faces voters again–but in many ways this midterm election is a referendum on both of them.

“Just because DJT [Donald J. Trump] isn’t on the ticket himself doesn’t mean that his wins, doesn’t mean that his policies, doesn’t mean that his presidency isn’t in many respects on the ticket,” Donald Trump, Jr., the president’s eldest son, said in a recent exclusive interview with Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125. “We have to get out there. We have to mobilize. We have to be aware of that. Because if Nancy Pelosi is in charge, taxes go up, the economy is going to go down, jobs numbers are going to go down. It’s a really scary prospect. They’re saying as much. They’re literally saying they’re going to reverse all of these things. And when I look at what are they trying to reverse, it’s almost mind-boggling—it would be much more mind-boggling if I didn’t realize these are people who have never done any of these things in the real world so how could they possibly know. But when they’re putting Democratic policies ahead of the good things that could happen for our country it’s really scary—but that’s exactly what’s going on.”

That means these data points go far deeper than just the top-of-the-ticket races in Ohio. House races, which will determine the future control of the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, are also affected by these sentiments–and as Breitbart News’ Michael Patrick Leahy noted in the first of a coming series of pieces this weekend on control of the majority this election year, Ohio may be one of the critical to that battle.