John Ivison: Trudeau has nobody to blame but himself for mishandling Wilson-Raybould and SNC Lavalin

The buck stops with any prime minister. He is the public face of those decisions — and in the SNC affair, he has become a figure of public derision

It’s never good for a politician when they’re being laughed at. Justin Trudeau’s claim that Jody Wilson-Raybould would still be justice minister if Scott Brison hadn’t resigned from politics quickly became a social media meme.

“If Scott Brison had not stepped down, Erik Karlsson would still be an Ottawa Senator,” wrote one hockey fan.

Brison’s spouse, Max St. Pierre, joined in the fun. “It’s ok, I usually blame my husband for everything too,” he tweeted.

The internet nearly blew up under the pressure of political nerds pointing out that Brison leaving his job as Treasury Board president did not necessarily mean Trudeau had to shuffle Wilson-Raybould. Rather, it offered him an opportunity to move a minister who was proving too independent for the prime minister’s liking.

For those of you doubting the PM's excuse this morning that he had to shuffle Wilson-Raybould because Brison resigned, I can only assume you have not read the British North America Act as closely as some of us. This is a well known quirk of our constitution. #cdnpolipic.twitter.com/RjU16RfFDq

It’s remarkable how quickly things have unravelled for Trudeau after Wilson-Raybould’s resignation from cabinet this week. What should have been a passing storm for the prime minister has blown up into a potential election issue — primarily because he has excited opinion, rather than calmed it.

For a prime minister who has been so adept at branding, he has proven embarrassingly inept at dealing with events he does not control.

The latest oxygen feeding the blaze was Trudeau’s admission that Wilson-Raybould had challenged him and asked whether he was directing her to make a decision on SNC Lavalin’s bid to seek a remediation deal in the corruption case that would have operated like a plea bargain — an admission of guilt and payment of a fine, in exchange for the Crown dropping its prosecution. Trudeau said representations were made to the government by MPs, two Quebec premiers (Philippe Couillard and Francois Legault) and executives from SNC Lavalin itself.

When Wilson-Raybould had asked if he was going to direct her to take a particular decision, he said he told her it was her decision. “I had full confidence in her role as attorney general to make the decision,” he said.

But then he stepped all over his message by declining to say whether he had expressed a preference — which strongly suggests he had indeed offered an opinion in SNC’s favour.

Keith Beardsley, who was deputy chief of staff for issues management in Stephen Harper’s government, said Trudeau and his advisers don’t seem to have a firm grasp of what their message is, “as if they expect Trudeau’s charisma to see them through.”

But a prime minister who was unflappable for much of his first three years in office now looks nervous, as if he’s not confident his mouth won’t spit out bloopers, like a broken slot machine. The Liberals’ prime asset has become their biggest liability.

Beardsley said he doesn’t see anyone playing the “What if…?” game — simulating how various talking points might play out in the media and beyond.

He pointed out the Trudeau Liberals were clearly not prepared for the public scrutiny around the SNC affair, or for the prospect Wilson-Raybould might quit.

The assumption seems to have been that she would do what she was told and accept the demotion to become veterans’ affairs minister, and that they would be able to replace her with a minister who would do the prime minister’s bidding on the SNC file.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a visit to BlackBerry QNX headquarters in Ottawa on Feb 15, 2019.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

Wilson-Raybould was offered the department of Indigenous services and turned it down, sources said. But she could have been moved sideways into a more high-profile position. Even as she was shuffled to veterans’ affairs, Trudeau failed to frame it as a necessary move to give direction to a department that needed a strong minister. In his press conference last month, Trudeau was sparing in his praise for a minister he needed to keep onside, merely saying she had “demonstrated tremendous skill” on her files.

Even prior to her demotion, Wilson-Raybould had made it clear she did not feel she received the respect she deserved. In a speech at a conference on Indigenous women and the law in Ottawa in October, she said “no matter what table one sits around, or what position, or with what title and appearance of power and influence, the experience of marginalization can still carry with you.” She went on to say that justice for Indigenous people could not be achieved by “half measures, good intentions or lofty rhetoric.”

Since those are Trudeau’s Three Graces, he could hardly be unaware that he had on his hands a minister who was less than enamoured about the state of the nation, or her place in it.

It is hard to escape the conclusion that what happened next was petty and vindictive. She was demoted, maligned by anonymous Liberals after she quit cabinet and blamed by the prime minister for not raising with him any concerns she had on the SNC file.

“They tried to strip her of her dignity but this is a proud, accomplished woman. You can’t do that and not expect blow back,” said Beardsley.

One Liberal suggested the prime minister has pulled the pin on a grenade that has exploded in the government’s face. He suggested a stronger prime minister would have publicly made the case for intervening in the SNC case, rather than operating in the shadows.

Jody Wilson-Raybould addresses the media after being sworn in as the new veterans affairs minister on Jan. 14, 2019.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

Just as it seemed things could not get worse for the Liberals, an emergency meeting of the justice committee made it appear there was a concerted cover-up.

The five rookie Liberal MPs on the committee offered a bunch of ham-fisted excuses for not calling key witnesses like Wilson-Raybould and Trudeau’s principal secretary, Gerald Butts.

Calling “random people” would be a “fishing expedition,” said MP Ron McKinnon, as if the opposition were instructing the committee clerk to wander onto Sparks Street and corral the first people he met.

A more professional operation would have put all the Liberal MPs in a room to discuss in detail how they planned to proceed and develop talking points that made sense, said Beardsley. The comments made subsequently by committee chair Anthony Housefather — that Wilson-

Raybould may have been shuffled because she didn’t speak French — should have been shot down straight away by the PMO.

It amounts to a catalogue of self-inflicted wounds that have made the worst of a bad situation. There has been a failure to act nimbly and snuff out emerging bad news — it took the PMO nearly a week to come out and call anonymous comments criticizing Wilson-Raybould “unacceptable.”

Some of this may be attributed to a high degree of turnover in staff in the issues management function in PMO. But the missteps can also be attributed to too little preparation and direction from the centre — a counterintuitive assertion, given the the prevailing wisdom of an omnipotent Prime Minister’s Office.

Conservative MP Erin O’Toole called for Butts to be the next person shuffled because he creates a “divisive environment.”

“Time for Trudeau to show his Svengali the door,” he tweeted.

It’s a sentiment with which a large number of Liberals sympathize. Butts controls access to the prime minister and has such a close relationship with Trudeau that they have been likened to Siamese twins. Inevitably, such an affinity creates resentment among people outside the relationship.

But as Harper’s former chief of staff Ian Brodie pointed out, accountable government means the boss is responsible for the staff.

Trudeau is no political neophyte. He has been an MP for more than a decade.

Nobody made him wear a Sherwani when he was in India, or dance the bhangra.

It amounts to a catalogue of self-inflicted wounds that have made the worst of a bad situation

Nobody forced him to manhandle the Conservative whip and elbow an NDP MP on the floor of the House of Commons because he was frustrated at the slow passage of government legislation.

No one compelled him to describe Fidel Castro as a “larger than life leader, a legendary revolutionary and orator.”

Neither was the prime minister coerced into the helicopter that whisked him off to a vacation on the Aga Khan’s Caribbean island, in contravention of the Conflict of Interest Act.

He was not bound to pay Omar Khadr $10 million in compensation or to defend the government’s court case against veterans “because they’re asking for more than we’re able to give right now.”

The principles of open and accountable government mean the prime minister is responsible for organizing cabinet and providing the direction necessary to maintain unity. He sets the general direction of government policy and establishes standards of conduct. He is not a cog in something turning — he operates the machine.

The buck stops with any prime minister, but this one in particular has been more forceful than most in inserting himself into every crisis. He is the public face of those decisions — and in the SNC affair, he has become a figure of public derision.

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