Week 13 Preview and Playoff Forecast

Sorry for the lack of posts here; life has gotten in the way the past few weeks. But, that being said, we’re back for a look at the league heading into Week 13 – the final week of the regular season – and how things look heading into the playoffs.

Here’s the current playoff picture with one regular season week remaining:

1. RG3 for President
2. Murrells Inlet Maya

These two spots are locked in, with only thing left to be determined is who finishes first and who finishes second. If RG3 wins next week, they’ll clinch the top seed because of having more points. If they lose and Murrells wins, Murrells will get the top seed. Both are locked into byes into the semifinals.

3. Bizarro Al Davis
4. Kobra Kai

These two spots are just like Nos. 1 and 2. Both teams have clinched their respective divisions, and only need to determine which is the higher seed heading into the first round of the playoffs. Bizarro won the head-to-head meeting this season, claiming a 318.4-260.1 victory in Week 6, so if Bizarro wins its final regular season game it will clinch the third seed. If they lose and Kobra wins, Kobra gets No. 3.

This is where things get complicated. There are five teams fighting for the two wild card spots, with Chef’s Menu, Smokin Red Devils and Kamehamehaaa all tied at 7-5, and The Replacements and That’s My-Danek! tied at 6-6.

Let’s start with the simplest scenario: all three 7-5 teams win this week. If that’s the case, Smokin Red Devils will claim the first spot because they have the far superior division record to Chef’s Menu. But who would get the second? It would come down to who has more points between Menu and Kamehamehaaa, with Menu currently holding a 19-point lead entering the final week of action.

If – and it’s possible – that all five teams finish with identical 7-6 records – here is how it would shake out:

Smokin Red Devils would win tiebreak over Chef’s Menu because of better division record
The Replacements would win tiebreak over Kamehamehaaa because of better division record

That leaves Smokin Red Devils, The Replacements and That’s My-Danek! as three teams going for two spots. That’s My-Danek would get the No. 5 seed, because they have wins over both Smokin Red Devils and The Replacements during the regular season. The Replacements would then get the second playoff spot because of their regular season win over Smokin Red Devils.

If Kamehamehaaa is the only 8-5 team and claim the first playoff spot, That’s My-Danek! would be first in line for the second spot if they win their last game, with Smokin Red Devils second. In this scenario, Chef’s Menu would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. If That’s My-Danek! loses, Smokin Red Devils would get the spot by virtue of their better division record over Chef’s Menu.

If Smokin Red Devils is the only 8-5 team and claim the first playoff spot, That’s My-Danek! would be first in line for the second spot if they win their last game, assuming they aren’t outscored by 45 points by Chef’s Menu. In this scenario, both The Replacements and Kamehamehaaa would not be able to make the playoffs (Replacements win inter-division tie-break, then lose tie-break to My-Danek!). If That’s My-Danek! loses, though, Chef’s Menu would get the spot unless they are outscored by The Replacements by 71 points in the final week.

If Chef’s Menu is the only 8-5 team and claim the first playoff spot, That’s My-Danek! would be first in line for the second spot if they win their last game. If That’s My-Danek! loses, The Replacements would get the spot by virtue of their regular season win over The Replacements.

If anyone has any questions about these, don’t hesitate to ask. Otherwise, best of luck to everyone in the final week of the season, and there will be a full playoff preview next Tuesday.