NJ Gov. Chris Christie: GOP star, local has-been?

In this Aug. 28, 2012 photo, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie arrives to speak to delegates at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. Christie spurned overtures to launch his own presidential campaign then repeatedly told audiences he loved being governor of New Jersey so much he wasnÌt interested in being courted as Mitt RomneyÌs running mate. So the question becomes: Will Christie try and keep the governorÌs job another four years? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Well, maybe that’s overstating the case. Perhaps, “Hmmm …” along with a chin scratch might be more appropriate.

Seems like Gov. Chris Christie — currently the undisputed champ of the Republican party, nationwide — might be in for a little bit of a bumpy road here in ol’ N.J.

I don’t want to bog this down in numbers, so let me just say this: Christie’s plan to stuff 10 pounds of — you know, stuff — in a five-pound bag might not be working out.

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Now listen — I’m all for stuffing small bags with big things, and Christie, in this year’s budget, attempted to stuff in a 10 percent, across-the-board income tax cut. The Democrats — in addition to bellyaching about how this would help the rich more than the middle class — were also like, “Whoa dude, we don’t have the cash.” Christie countered with a, “Come on, you pansies, we’re going to have the cash, in fact, we’re going to have a 7.2 percent revenue gain this year!” The Democrats, in a bit of a getting their cake and eating it too moment, were like, “OK fine, if we have the cash come January 2013, then sure, you get your tax cut.”

Well, it’s not January yet, but things aren’t exactly a-poppin’ here in the Garden State.

In fact, according to a recent report by the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services, in order for Christie’s budget to come in at a zero balance, revenue has to go up 8.2 percent for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends June 30. It’s only been two months since the budget year started, and we’re already behind, according to this estimate.

Put it this way: If 7.2 percent seemed like a reach, 8.2 percent seems impossible. And come the end of 2012, when an audit of the budget comes in, things might get even bleaker. Why? Because the budget HAS to zero out. It’s illegal to run a deficit in this, or any, state.

(Why? Because that’s the rule. Besides, we can’t print our own money to cover our debts like the feds can. But if we could print our own money — quick sidebar — I say Paul Robeson for the $100 bill, Woodrow Wilson for the $50, Grover Cleveland for the $20, Aaron Burr for the $10, Albert Einstein for the $3.14, and Walt Whitman for the $1. Anyway …)

Anyway, Christie and his people have to hit their budget numbers. And if revenue doesn’t jump by the time the audit is completed … well, not only aren’t we getting that 10 percent tax cut, but we’re also probably looking at budget cuts.

And budget cuts — especially mid-fiscal year budget cuts — aren’t going to be perceived as a positive in a state where many services were cut to begin with when Christie took office.

Furthermore — and this is where the “hmmm …”/chin scratch might give way to the full-fledged “uh-oh” — Christie is facing re-election next year.

Put mildly, a budget in tatters, his big tax cut shelved and cuts to programs is not how he wants his re-election campaign to kick off.

Of course, the above is a worst case scenario for Christie, and just because it’s on the table doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

“The governor’s growth figures are based on historical trends out of recovery,” Republican Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon told Bloomberg.com. “We all want it to be better than it is. Is it completely unattainable? No. Is it outrageous? Not at all. It’s in line with previous recoveries.”

As a New Jerseyan, I can say with full honesty I hope Christie’s plan comes through. I want to see revenue soar in the state. I want a tax cut. I want him to be right.

But if he’s not right, he ends up on the defensive, and that’s not a good way to keep voters on his side. This could be a political disaster for the most popular man in GOP Land.