The House is preparing to vote as soon as Thursday on the biggest change in congressional ethics rules in more than a decade, but new questions have been raised on whether the Office of Congressional Ethics will have any effect at all on lawmakers and staffers until 2009 at the earliest.

Under the Democrats’ proposal to create the new office, there will essentially be only a two-month window this summer — July and August — when the OCE could begin an investigation.

According to a draft copy of the resolution that would establish the OCE, the office is specifically prevented from taking up any case “before 120 days after the date of the adoption of this resolution.”

Additionally, the OCE cannot begin an investigation in the two-month period leading up to Election Day, which is Nov. 4.

And even after that, any investigation begun by OCE must be sent on to the House ethics committee for final action — dismissal, further investigation or referral to the Justice Department — meaning that the OCE is unlikely to really matter until the 111th Congress, since the committee rarely moves quickly on any case.

That means the OCE, even if approved by the House, will have very little opportunity to take up any ethics case during 2008, pushing off its real impact until the next Congress, if Democrats, as expected, hold on to the chamber this fall.

Democrats blamed Republicans for delaying approval of the new office as the reason why the OCE will have little say on any ethics matter this year.

“No one knew it was going to take this long for the resolution to come up,” said a top Democratic leadership aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “But we need to do this in order to continue on the work of ethics reform, even if it’s not until the 111th Congress that [the OCE] can really come into play.”

This staffer pointed out that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) first appointed an ethics task force chaired by Reps. Michael E. Capuano (D-Mass.) and Lamar Smith (R-Texas) in late January 2007. Due to partisan infighting, the recommendation to create the OCE was not released by Capuano until mid-December, and even then it was without Smith’s support. Both sides have continued to squabble about the issue, leading to further delays in floor action.

“If there is a window, it will probably be a very short window,” Capuano said on Wednesday.

Republicans focused on the calendar problems facing the OCE as yet one more reason to oppose the Capuano resolution when it hits the House floor.

“It’s interesting Democrats have devised an ‘ethics reform’ bill that basically guarantees that investigations are punted until after Election Day,” said a senior House GOP aide. “Is it possible that the highest priority for the new Democratic majority is not actually ethics reform but instead it is reelecting the new Democratic majority?”

Pelosi, who is pushing hard for creation of the new ethics office, faced down doubters of the proposal within her own caucus Tuesday night, and Democratic leaders were busy whipping rank-and-file Democrats Wednesday to make sure the bill will pass when it comes to the floor.

Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters that he was not aware of the whip count on the OCE proposal. Hoyer, though, said he understood members’ concerns and backed efforts to make sure it was vetted thoroughly before coming up for a vote.

The timing of the vote, however, was still unclear late Wednesday, with Republicans blaming the delay on internal Democratic debate over the measure.

Earlier this week, Capuano offered a series of amendments to his initial proposal to make it more amenable to his colleagues, including one revision that would prevent “rogue members” of the OCE from pushing partisan probes in order to hurt a member politically.

“We live in a fishbowl where there are partisan reasons to disparage every one of us,” Hoyer acknowledged when asked of members’ fears about the new panel’s role. “You’d be shocked if members just shrugged and said they’d accept this without asking lots of questions.”

But the Democratic leadership’s assurances weren’t enough for even some Democrats, including Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), who spoke out against the measure during the Tuesday night session.

“From the public’s point of view, you’re guilty, it’s done,” Abercrombie said of what will happen once OCE recommends an investigation to the House ethics committee. “We stand a good chance of confusing legitimate ethics inquiries with the pursuit of criminal allegations and possible prosecution. … What I am saying is what is being proposed here doesn’t do that.”

Abercrombie, though, predicted that not enough Democrats would vote against the Capuano resolution to defeat it, bending instead to the will of their leadership “to do something on ethics reform.”

Republicans also insisted that they were for ethics reform, just not this proposal.

“House Republicans support real ethics reform and making the ethics committee work. But there are serious problems with the half-baked partisan proposal that Democratic leaders are trying to jam through the House,” said a top House GOP staffer.