Struggled defensively to start. He didn’t stunt and recover to the popping Al Horford and Horford got a couple wide-open looks. The Celtics also looked to expose the slight Siakam in the post, so Casey sat him down.

If you’re getting a Raptors jersey, how far up is Powell on the list? Bailed out the Raptors offence early as they got off to a sleepy start. It doesn’t really matter who is guarding him, Norm will be aggressive. Hit open shots, consistently beat his defender, even had some sneaky awesome cuts. Forced turnovers too. What a luxury.

His first shot was a fade jumper on the baseline against Amir and that was a good summary of his game. JV didn’t play like he should have tonight. Zero presence on the offensive glass against a bad rebounding team. Defensively, he was a mess. When he came back in the fourth quarter, they immediately ran a Bradley-Horford screen and roll, but Horford flared out and attacked a moving Valanciunas. He had no chance.

Stud. He came through when we needed him. The Raptors were getting beat up and Lowry scored six points to bring Toronto back to life in the second, and then balled out in the third quarter. We’ve reached a point where deficits don’t matter because Lowry has the ability to turn a game on its head by himself.

He was forced to take jumpers early as the length of Bradley and the other athletic defenders bothered him. DeMar tried to single-handedly beat the Boston defence instead of attacking off of ball movement. Once he operated out of a post-up, he had more success and drew some fouls. Thought he was his usual defensive self, which is not a compliment.

Quiet game from the Pickering product. He was aggressive going to the rim but couldn’t draw many calls. His jumper wasn’t falling either. Joseph was pretty active defensively in the fourth and helped that Lowry-DeRozan-less fourth quarter line-up stay afloat.

The 905 returned home to the Hershey Centre after a perfect 3-0 road trip and kept the good times rolling. The first game back at home; against one of the top teams in the league after a week away was always going to present an interesting challenge. Home teams can get a little lax in that first game back in familiar surroundings, but it turned out to be arguably the feistiest game of the young season, and entertaining throughout.

The home side showed good assertiveness early on with a commitment to attacking the paint. CJ Leslie got them started with four quick points in the low post, before E.J. Singler got himself going with a nice pull-up J on the left baseline, a dribble drive for a pair of free throws, and Jack Armstrong’s favourite; a three-ball following an offensive board with the defense scattered.

Despite having the D-League’s second-fastest pace at 108.25 possessions per 48 minutes and playing like it in the first quarter, the Skyforce only managed 18 points on 23 field-goal attempts. They shot 30% from the field but stayed in it courtesy of four makes from beyond the arc.

John Jordan was up for this one even before the tip, showing off this impressive windmill during the warmups.

That energy carried over into the game with seven points, two assists, and a minor tussle with the Skyforce’s Jabril Trawick in a battle for a loose ball; all within his first six minutes. He had a bit of luck as well, when an alley-oop attempt to Yanick Moreira hit the backboard first, but Moreira was still able to make something of it and finish the play.

The game stayed close throughout the half before Sioux Falls took a 43-41 halftime lead with both teams having their share of mini ruts and runs.

The second half got off to a dubious start for the 905, as CJ Leslie picked up his fourth foul less than two minutes into the second half. A transition triple by Jarrod Uthoff following a Tavares block with about 5:40 to go gave the 905 their first fast-break points of the game, and this fact was indicative of exactly how the Skyforce have been successful this season. Having the second-best defensive rating along with the second-fastest pace is only possible with excellent transition defense. This team understands that in order to have fun getting up the floor, they must get back with the same gusto.

Okara White caused the 905 all sorts of problems with his athleticism and range in the first three quarters. He dropped 16 points to go along with 14 boards, a couple of three-pointers, and five free-throw attempts to keep Sioux Falls within a point heading into the fourth quarter.

With under nine minutes to go, John Jordan sunk a three and drew a charge to tilt the momentum in the 905’s favour for the remainder of the contest. Brady Heslip got hot after a quiet start with 13 fourth-quarter points, before Toupane setup the most emotionally charged moment of the night after drawing a foul on a three-point attempt.

Nevada Smith, head coach of the Skyforce, was completely outraged by the call, arguably because of a previous no-call when his team had the ball. The referees ejected him with the red mist clearly having taken over, and the game was effectively over after four makes out of five at the line that gave the 905 a 91-81 lead with 2:53 to go. The 905 blitzed their opponents 35-16 in the fourth quarter, and finished with a surprising 20-point victory after the way the first 36 minutes played out.

What Toupane has provided in offensive firepower to Jerry Stackhouse’s bench unit, Tavares has provided in defensive resistance. Toupane finished the game as solid as ever, with 22 points and six boards, while Tavares was a beast once again with 10 points, 17 boards, six blocks and three steals. He was even able to stay out of foul trouble in this one.

The 905 are rolling right now, and coach Stackhouse will be particularly thrilled about this one. The 905 played to their opponent a bit in their last game against the Greensboro Swarm, but they were gamers right from the tip in this one.

Notes:
• Give John Jordan the game ball. It was his best game of the season against a quality opponent and his energy was vital in getting the 905 over the hump.
• Will Sheehey was quietly solid with 12 points, and gave the team some important buckets early on when they needed it.
• Heslip shot the lights out from beyond the arc in the game before with seven makes from 13 three-point attempts, but only made two of his nine attempts in this one.
• The Skyforce are fun to watch. They’ve got some great athletes and their pace of play makes the most of it.
• The 905 now get five days off before a home bout with the Oklahoma City Blue on Thursday, December 15th at 7:30pm EST.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/905-ride-strong-fourth-quarter-crush-skyforce/feed/0Pre-game news & notes: Thomas, Carroll, and Caboclo sit for 1st Celtics-Raptors meeting, minor Sullinger updatehttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/pre-game-news-notes-thomas-sits-caroll-unlikely-1st-celtics-raptors-meeting/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/pre-game-news-notes-thomas-sits-caroll-unlikely-1st-celtics-raptors-meeting/#respondFri, 09 Dec 2016 23:13:52 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=75713Ahh yes, the Boston Celtics. The would-be threat to the Toronto Raptors’ perch as the top would-be threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers. A fun and gritty young Celtics team was able to ad Al Horford in the offseason, plus No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown, and with several good contracts, young players still developing, and a […]

]]>Ahh yes, the Boston Celtics. The would-be threat to the Toronto Raptors’ perch as the top would-be threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers. A fun and gritty young Celtics team was able to ad Al Horford in the offseason, plus No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown, and with several good contracts, young players still developing, and a bevy of draft assets at the ready, it was assumed Boston would push for the second spot in the East, perhaps even emerging as a threat to LeBron James and company if the right trade target hit the market.

And that might all eventually be true. For right now, though, the Celtics are 13-9 and still very much in the “figuring it out” stage. They haven’t been bad, but they’re not where it seemed some thought they’d be immediately. Like Jae Crowder, for instance, who said the following in July:

I think our ceiling is the Eastern Conference Finals. Toronto is not a team we’re worried about. I think Cleveland is the top team. That’s what it comes down to.

At the time, that didn’t sit particularly well with DeMarre Carroll, who responded as follows:

I think it’s a comment from a person who hasn’t been in a playoff situation. When you haven’t been on that level you don’t understand what it takes. Myself, going to back-to-back Conference Finals, I know what it takes. I think it’s a comment from a guy who hasn’t played at that level, sounds like a young [guy] comment.

On the surface, that back-and-forth, the fact that both teams play in the Atlantic Division, and that they are somewhere in the neighborhood of the second and third best teams in the conference (hi, second-round matchup) gives this the makings of a bit of a rivalry. I’m of the mind you probably need a playoff series or two before something’s a true rivalry, but it would be entertaining for the teams to at least have some general disdain for each other as the season wears on. For now, it’s just another game.

Raptors updates
As usual with a back-to-back scenario, DeMarre Carroll is likely to only play one leg of it. Considering he suited up against the Timberwolves on Thursday, it would stand to reason that he’s out in this one. Head coach Dwane Casey did say the team is hoping to take the back-to-back restriction off “soon,” but the context didn’t suggest, to me, that he meant by tonight’s game. Still, check back before tip-off for a firm update.

UPDATE: Carroll is out, as is Bruno Caboclo (sore knee).

As always with Carroll sitting, it’s really not so bad. Not only are there no back-to-backs in the playoffs, so he doesn’t really need to build up to them, every game he sits also buys a lot of playing time for Norman Powell. Powell’s deserving of playing NBA rotation minutes, he’s just boxed into a 10th-man role thanks to the Raptors’ guard depth and the surprisingly even and steady play of Terrence Ross. Against the Celtics, Powell should be a valuable defensive weapon, potentially drawing the Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart assignment and maybe seeing time on Jae Crowder. Powell’s usage in general could be increased by the Raptors experimenting with some fun, smaller lineups that could help the defense, something I wrote about today for The Athletic.

The bigger challenge than matching across the first three positions will be matching with a stable of stretchy bigs. Outside of Amir Johnson (miss you), the Celtics bigs can all shoot it at least a little bit, and Al Horford has long posed a problem against Toronto. It will be on Jonas Valanciunas to dominate the rebounding battle, because it’s an area the Celtics really struggle in. It will be interesting to see if the Raptors’ carry over their Thursday strategy of high-walling the side pick-and-roll to limit pick-and-pops, or if they’re less worried about Boston’s guards scoring and keep the big tethered more tightly to the screener.

Celtics updates
Boston will be without Isaiah Thomas, who recently received a PRP injection in his injured groin, and that’s a massive loss for them. This team is built to function around Thomas causing problems in the pick-and-roll, and while they have some nice guard depth overall, none of the options trying to pick up the slack are nearly the scoring threat Thomas is. He was also playing the best basketball of his career so far this year, pushing his scoring average to 26 points per-game in just 33.3 minutes while maintaining strong efficiency numbers and working as a co-distributor with Horford to help get others involved. He’s a major factor in Boston’s offense taking a leap, and the Celtics are 4.1 points per-100 possessions less deadly when he sits (a number that probably understates his impact when he’s out for entire games, though Boston had no trouble scoring against a mess of a Magic team on Wednesday).

With Thomas sidelined, Marcus Smart stands to start, Terry Rozier will back him up, and Demetrius Jackson has been recalled from the Maine Red Claws. Jackson only played in garbage time Wednesday but has looked solid in the D-League, and Rozier stepped in to a sixth-man role capably against Orlando. Smart’s a top-flight defender who should give the Raptors’ playmakers trouble, and his shooting percentages likely understate his value. Still, the absence of Thomas is a massive one, and it puts a lot of pressure on the Celtics’ shooters to knock down the looks they do get.

James Young is also questionable due to an illness. He plays pretty sparingly, anyway, but it’s worth noting he was playing one-on-one before the game.

Fred VanVleet traveled with the Raptors rather than hanging behind in the GTA for a Raptors 905 home game. We’ll have coverage of both games for you, though I, personally, won’t be catching the 905 until late evening or early morning. They’re on a nice roll right now, even without the assignees, and the defending champion Sioux Falls Skyforce should be a tough test (shout out to Briante Weber).

Jared Sullinger told Boston media that he’s getting better in his recovery. He was off his crutches at the ACC yesterday, which I believe was the first time, and he’s now able to put some weight on the foot, which is encouraging. Casey said Sullinger is still about four-to-five weeks away, as specific a timeline as we’ve received but still pretty vague and not something you should bank on.

How do you pass time when you’re injured? Video games on JumboTron. Isaiah Thomas and his 2K Clippers in an early hole. Check this video and then reed Jay’s thread. I’m dying. pic.twitter.com/f0ghYEsPeU

The lineThe Raptors are two-point underdogs, which may ruffle some feathers in the Raptors fan-base but makes sense considering the Raptors are on the road on the second night of a back-to-back, and because Carroll (likely) sitting neutralizes some of the Thomas absence. The line suggests the Raptors are a shade better on neutral court, which makes sense. It might also shift to Celtics -1.5 by game time. The over-under is hovering around 208.5.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/pre-game-news-notes-thomas-sits-caroll-unlikely-1st-celtics-raptors-meeting/feed/0Is DeMarcus Cousins the Third Star the Raptors Need?http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/demarcus-cousins-third-star-raptors-need/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/demarcus-cousins-third-star-raptors-need/#respondFri, 09 Dec 2016 18:00:04 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=75681Boogie is a legitimate All-Star, but is he the answer to Cleveland?

]]>DeMarcus Cousins is one of the premiere big men in the NBA – twice an NBA All-star, twice All-NBA, and a Team USA mainstay. He is a player who happens to be brought up in trade rumors each year, one whom Raptor fans salivate at the prospect of acquiring. The appeal is understandable – Boogie is a multi-talented scorer and rebounder, and is on track to record a fourth straight 20+ points and 10+ rebounds per game season. On paper, he resembles the cases of Chris Bosh and Kevin Love, All-star big men who couldn’t win on their own and joined other stars in an attempt to capture a title.

His statistics speak for themselves. Below is Cousins’ production against the top 3 teams in the NBA (Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland) over the last two and a half seasons:

These numbers are very close to his overall averages against the rest of the NBA during the same time period, showing his ability to raise his game versus better competition (though Sacramento’s dearth of talent meant they were not in position to win said games). In addition, despite displaying what appears to be a disinterested demeanor at times, Boogie ranks impressively in a number of hustle categories – namely deflections (6th in the NBA this season, 1st among centers) and charges drawn per game (9th in the league and 3rd among centers). There is little doubt that he can put up numbers and dominate opponents, but all that glitters is not gold when it comes to Cousins.

DeMarcus is posting a 45.5% on field goals so far this season, ranking only 68th in the NBA in that category and 20th among centers (for comparison purposes, Jonas Valanciunas shoots 53.2%, ranking 16th overall and 11th among centers). One can rationalize this by his propensity to shoot threes, but his 55.8% true shooting figure only partly reflects that, putting him 66th in the NBA, 15th among centers. Cousins being the number one option on his team is the other part of the equation – his usage is a staggering 37.1%, 3rd highest in the league.

Meanwhile, DeRozan and Lowry’s usage rates are 34.2% and 24.3% respectively. This leads to the next problem – Toronto’s most successful basketball team in the franchise’s short history has been founded on the excellent chemistry between its two core pieces in DeMar and Kyle, and the willingness of the rest of the team to play peripheral roles around them. Adding another ball-dominant player risks disrupting the delicate chemistry the team developed over the last few seasons, and means the entire offense is to be re-engineered mid-season.

A significant portion of Toronto’s offense relies on JV’s much-improved screening (he’s 8th in the league in screen assists). This is something Cousins appears to have no interest in (at least with the Kings), ranking 82nd in the league in that category. To be fair, the possibility certainly exists that DeRozan would retain a similar number of open looks due to Cousins drawing more defensive attention.

However, once more the need to redesign the offense becomes apparent, an offense that has been tinkered with and perfected in its own unique way, without the advantage of a training camp. It’s no longer adding at the margins as Ujiri often does. Instead of having role players adjust their games to fit the Raptors style, the task becomes the addition of a whole new focal point to everything the club does. The resulting lack of familiarity with new offensive sets could prove to be the team’s downfall in the 2017 playoffs against a quality opponent. Ironically, the ultimate ‘win-now’ move would very possibly lead to failure to meet the current season’s objectives.

If the Raptors are willing to play out the 2017 playoffs with Cousins as a trial run with a view to being a serious contender in 2018, the pressure will be immense in that campaign – as it’ll be Cousins’ contract year ahead of unrestricted free agency, at which point the club risks losing him for nothing.

Setting that aside, let’s imagine everything plays out perfectly for Toronto in 2018, and they find themselves to be a well-oiled triple threat machine facing off against Cleveland in the Eastern Finals. Picture the 1st seeded Raptors drop game 1 at home to a vintage LeBron James performance, and enter a must-win game 2. The contest is a tight one, and the referees swallow their whistle for most of the night, allowing more contact than they should. In a tie situation early in the fourth quarter, 62-year-old Richard Jefferson elbows Cousins for the second time in the game without any of the officials noticing. In that moment, with an entire season, and in fact the entirety of Ujiri’s tenure with the Raptors hanging in the balance, do you trust DeMarcus Cousins to keep his cool? Do you trust Boogie to continue playing as though nothing happened? Because I don’t know if I do. Cousins has amassed 96 technical fouls in his 6.5-season career so far, getting ejected 10 (!) times. Just to draw a comparison to a certain bulldog who used to have a troublesome reputation before becoming The Man in Toronto, Kyle Lowry owns a total of 53 career technicals and 4 ejections, while playing 250 more games than Cousins.

The scenario above assumes every player gets in line, accepts their role and the team performs at an elite level within a year and a half of the initial trade. It assumes that Cousins is willing to significantly reduce his usage; that he’s willing to put in enough effort on the defensive end to stay in Coach Casey’s good books; that he’s willing to respect Casey enough to want to get in his good books in the first place (on more than one occasion he failed to do so with the Kings); and finally and perhaps most importantly, it assumes he will be able to translate his game effectively into the demanding environment of the NBA playoffs right away. This final point isn’t trivial – Cousins has zero playoff appearances to his name. That may not be his direct fault, but as his club’s undisputed franchise player, it’s not not his fault either.

In the DeMar DeRozan preview article ahead of the season, I wrote about the importance of playoff experience to subsequent success in that arena. It’s a different game, and both DeRozan and Lowry learned that the hard way, the former needing 4 full playoff series’ (25 games) before finally being able to efficiently translate his strengths to meaningful contributions in the third round. Kevin Love is a key comparison, as he struggled to show his quality in many of his post-season minutes (had none with the Wolves), so much so that he was a prime trade candidate before Cleveland came back from the grave to win the 2016 finals. Love had the benefit of a certain All-Time-Great carrying him to the Finals despite his ineffective play, a luxury the Raptors do not possess. With his tuition now paid, it’s more than likely that the sharp-shooting power forward will carry his improved form into this year’s playoffs, making the Cavaliers that much more dangerous. Like Love, DeRozan and Lowry gained valuable experience playing in April and May, while Cousins is yet to be tested in the cauldron that is the NBA playoffs. If the mega-trade happens, it’s the Raptors that would be paying for his inexperience, while risking his departure in 2018.

Finally, this brings us to the chip that many in Raptor land are ready to cash in for the possibility of adding Boogie – Jonas Valanciunas. With the exception of a few outings, JV has had a below-expectations season thus far, even sitting out the occasional fourth quarter yet again. He appears to be a poor fit within Toronto’s system, rarely sees the ball, and as a result appears less interested in doing the cleanup work asked of him.

It’s important to note that the Raptors’ offense is humming so far this year, scoring at a historical efficiency. At times, passes zip around the perimeter after the initial penetration until an open shooter is found, and JV rarely gets a touch. But the team’s recent success is akin to the winners of the undercard bouts of a boxing bill – though entertaining, it’s not what the people came to see. The people came to see the main event – the playoffs are where the Raptors will truly be judged. And in the postseason the game inevitably slows down, and the team’s regular season offensive rating proves unsustainable. It is in that slower game that JV excels most – he has shown that time and again, playing very well in his first series against Brooklyn, and recording career best performances against Indiana and Miami last season before getting injured.

When the open shot cannot be found under playoff pressure, it’s Valanciunas that has often bailed out the rest of the squad, and that cannot be forgotten. Yes, the Raptors are struggling to add wrinkles to the offense that would involve him more now, but the data would appear to point that when April comes around, if the big Lithuanian is still wearing Toronto colors, his contributions will once again make Raptor fans forget about his poor fit in the 82 games that precede them.

It cannot be denied that Cousins is a more talented and well-rounded player than Valanciunas is. And every time the Raptors play the Cavaliers it appears Toronto needs a quicker, more cerebral third star than Jonas to claim victory. But if DeMarcus Cousins is Masai’s all-in move, the question of whether he has the mentality necessary to win a championship as a key cog must be asked. If the JV, Ross/Powell and picks trade happens, I’ll be curious and excited to see what unfolds, hopeful of a Lowry-like transformation that will make Boogie an equal member of a first true Raptors big-three. But as intriguing as that possibility may be, it would be completely understandable if Ujiri prefers to wait out another trade deadline, as he scans within and without for the final piece of the puzzle.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/demarcus-cousins-third-star-raptors-need/feed/0Game Day: Raptors @ Celtics, Dec. 9http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/game-day-raptors-celtics-dec-9/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/game-day-raptors-celtics-dec-9/#respondFri, 09 Dec 2016 16:05:04 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=75704The Raptors look to continue their reign over the Atlantic Division in the second game of a back-to-back against Boston.

]]>Led by their new franchise leader in games played, DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors are shipping out to Boston for the second game of a back-to-back against the Celtics. They’ll be doing so without DeMarre Carroll, who is still sitting out back-to-backs as he recovers from injury. Toronto took the season series against Boston 3-1 last year, and will need a win to help maintain their grip on the Atlantic Division/best Eastern Conference team without Lebron James ranking.

While Boston has bounced back from a rocky start to the season, going the same 7-3 as the Raptors over their last 10 games, they’ve struggled to really stand-out as particularly good at any one thing so far. Their defense has been a notable and surprising struggle at times for them, as they’ve dropped off from a top-5 team in defensive efficiency a year ago to coming out just on the wrong side of league average so far this season. They’ve struggled to rebound defensively and they’ve given up a problematic number of free-throw attempts. Those are two avenues in which DeRozan and Valanciunas in particular like to feast.

The Celtics will be playing without their scoring leader in Isaiah Thomas on Friday night, who will be missing the game after receiving a plasma-rich platelet injection in his groin (for what I assume to be completely legitimate medical reasons). Thomas has once again looked like Boston’s best player this season and is their clear leader on offense and the only player consistently able to make his own shot. However, the on/off numbers for Thomas have told a different story so far this season than in years past. The Celtics are a much better team offensively when Thomas is on the court, but when he doesn’t play they only drop off from a good offense to an average one, where they had become anemic without him in the past. Defensively, on the other hand, the Celtics go from a poor defensive team with Thomas on the court to an elite, league-best unit when he sits. Overall, they’ve been almost 5 points per 100 possessions better with him sitting. While it’s possible that those numbers end up righting themselves over the course of the season, it suggests that missing Thomas might better prepare the Celtics to play heavy minutes for Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart in the hopes of shutting down the dynamic duo of Lowry and DeRozan.

Shutting down Lowry and DeRozan has been most team’s gameplan against the Dinos this year though, it’s just easier said than done. Just ask poor Ricky Rubio, whose ashes DeRozan scattered across the farthest corners of the galaxy. But it hasn’t been just a two-man show as of late, as the Raptors have left scorched Earth trails behind them offensively. They hit over ten 3-pointers again last night against Minnesota and they continue to shoot 39% overall, which is better from deep as a team than the Golden State Warriors. That historically great offensively so far Warriors team is the only team in the league with a more efficient offense than the Raptors so far, and the Raptors are nipping at their heels, too. The Raptors efficiency continues to happen by going against the grain, with DeMar hoisting more mid-range shots than anyone, Kyle Lowry shooting 3s from the parking lot, a second-round pick without range starting at power-forward and a traditional big man in the middle. Maybe it’s that non-conventionality that it makes it so hard to guard. Boston will try tonight, but they will fail.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/game-day-raptors-celtics-dec-9/feed/0Raptors wait until 4th to get gritty, rebuff exciting Timberwolveshttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/raptors-wait-4th-get-gritty-rebuff-exciting-timberwolves/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/09/raptors-wait-4th-get-gritty-rebuff-exciting-timberwolves/#respondFri, 09 Dec 2016 14:00:51 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=75700It's reductive, but the Raptors' experience won out on a fun, defense-free night.

The team development curve can be a frustrating one, something the Toronto Raptors franchise knows all too well from two decades of stops and starts and false flirtations with taking the next step. Skill doesn’t always necessarily beget talent, and talent doesn’t always necessarily lead to winning, at least not in the immediate term. Teams, especially young ones, take time to gel, to learn how to sustain performance over the course of games, weeks, and seasons. That process isn’t linear, and even the most exciting of young outfits will take some time to put it all together. More experienced teams, meanwhile, have an easier time maintaining a level of play and, failing that, of finding an extra gear that can make the difference.

To wit, the Raptors more or less sleepwalked through three quarters against an enthralling young Minnesota Timberwolves team on Thursday before flipping a switch in the fourth quarter to secure a 124-110 victory, their seventh in the last eight games.

“They really outplayed us, energy-wise, for three quarters,” Cory Joseph said after the game. “In the last quarter, we stepped it up, rotations were faster, and we were playing with a little bit more grit.”

The game’s flow was all too familiar for the Wolves, as hot starts and late collapses have become their modus operandi. Few teams in the NBA perform better in the first half, while few perform worse in the second half, and exactly zero have stumbled more than the Wolves in crunch time. That format mostly held true Thursday, with the Wolves landing an early punch to a Raptors team that was inexplicably taking them lightly a year after they did so twice and were put in their place. The Raptors found their footing offensively, enough to tie the game entering the half, and then the Wolves took what would appear to be a step forward by actually winning a third quarter, a rarity.

To that point, the Raptors looked somewhere between disinterested and incapable of stopping Minnesota. With Andrew Wiggins dominating thanks to a wonderfully fluid in-between game that rendered even terrific DeMarre Carroll defense irrelevant and Karl-Anthony Towns heating up coming out of the break, the Wolves had found their way to 89 points in three quarters on 54.3-percent shooting. Toronto wasn’t taking care of their own glass – Minnesota grabbed 15 of a potential 31 offensive rebounds through three quarters – and while they weren’t giving Minnesota free trips to the line, it was largely because they weren’t staying close enough to bodies.

Wiggins, Towns, and Zach LaVine are a difficult trio, to be sure, but the Raptors were proving in capable of keeping men in front of them on the perimeter, putting too much pressure on the second-line defense and the resulting rotations. Head coach Dwane Casey tried to get creative, smartly having Jonas Valanciunas show with a high-wall to prevent Ricky Rubio from getting the baseline, and this strategy gummed up the Wolves’ initial attacks at least a bit, especially with their two traditional bigs on the floor. Still, that wrinkle requires Valanciunas to hustle back to the rim, and the elimination of baseline penetration and production of fewer pick-and-pop opportunities was a bandaid on a bullet-hole, as the Wolves would just reset or reverse and re-attack, or simply lean on a one-on-one attack. Patrick Patterson did a great job on Towns when called upon (because of course he did), but Casey tried to stick with Pascal Siakam longer in the second half to no avail. (Casey, in general, had a bit of a strange first three quarters in terms of rotations – playing Terrence Ross rather than Norman Powell early when Carroll had foul trouble, thus breaking up the Kyle Lowry-and-bench unit for the second, for example – but I mostly continue to be impressed by his choices in fourth quarters.)

The nice thing about the Raptors’ struggling for long stretches on defense is that they still score the hell out of the ball. There are few teams as well-equipped for a shootout as the Raptors, and their ability to get to the line (a Minnesota weakness), protect the ball, and knock down their threes proved paramount. Valanciunas was also able to tilt the equation inside, making up for a rough start defensively by being assertive in the opposing paint and really flashing his mid-range game on his way to a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double. DeMar DeRozan also shook off a tough start to the night, settling in by making plays and attacking when that opened up some additional space for him, and he continues to lend an appreciable hand on the glass (if anyone is concerned at Wiggins’ lack of non-points box score totals, DeRozan’s growth as a rebounder and playmaker over the years could be encouraging).

Keeping pace with their abhorrent defense kept the Raptors within striking distance, and that bought them time to let their experience take over and pull away in the fourth.

Whether it’s improved execution or a sense of urgency or just having been there so many times before, the Raptors continue to be one of the league’s best fourth-quarter teams. It makes sense, since that’s what very good teams are supposed to do, and because the Raptors have been one of the league’s best teams so far this season. There’s also been the sense all season that their high-engagement defensive upside is higher than what they’ve been able to show quarter-to-quarter, and that’s both a criticism and a cause for optimism if they can manage to lock in against an opponent bell-to-bell. Whereas the Wolves are still learning how to compete over four quarters, the Raptors have developed this comfort zone knowing they don’t have to be at their best, something that’s somewhat annoying but acceptable for the 82-game slough of the regular season but a habit that needs to die by the time the playoffs roll around.

The defense was the swing factor in the fourth – Minnesota grabbed just one offensive board, turned the ball over five times, and shot 38.9 percent – but it was Lowry’s shot-making that put things out of reach.

“Kyle saved us with his offense,” Casey said.

The distance on some of Lowry’s threes is becoming obscene, as is the confidence everyone in the arena seems to have each time he lets one fly. Lowry finished with 11 assists and 25 points on just 14 field-goal attempts, canning five threes to push his 3-point percentage to 43.5 on the year and to 53.8 percent over the last 13 games. He simply continues to function on a higher level than anyone not named LeBron James (or maybe Jimmy Butler) in the Eastern Conference, and he’s able to swing the tide of a game or drag the Raptors where they need to go if they’re otherwise being stubborn. When defenses have to guard you out to 30 feet, there aren’t a lot of answers.

The Raptors would prefer not to have to win this way. Casey was fairly displeased following the game, which is expected when the Raptors allow the kind of opponent shooting percentage (and point total) they did Thursday. The Wolves are good, and they’re incredibly exciting – seriously, this was among the most fun games of the season, except when DeRozan murdered poor Ricky Rubio – but the Raptors rightly feel they should be able to slow teams down at a better rate than they have.

“In spit of our defense,” Casey said. “That’ what I just told the team, if we’re serious about going anywhere, doing anything special, our defense and our attention to detail, our passion for defense, our give-a-crap level for defense has to pick up.”

One of the running storylines of the season is that the Raptors have settled in to their skin as a very good team, more capable of taking care of the teams they should take care of, winning pretty or winning ugly, and closing out games like this (when they’re not against the Sacramento Kings). It’s a testament to how the core has developed together – yesterday was the three-year anniversary of the Rudy Gay trade – and what continuity, familiarity, and communal growth can do for the confidence and effectiveness of a team on nights they don’t have their very best. The Wolves are very likely headed in that same direction, with an embarrassment of young talent. It’s just going to take time, and Toronto’s example is instructive.

“We need to play connected in the fourth,” Wiggins said. “We need to play off each other. That’s what the Raptors do: They played off each other, they were on a string.”

Carroll made Wiggins work for a reasonable number of his points, but Wiggins just hit some ridiculous shots over him. +19 is nice, and he hit his shots when he was open, including a stretch in the late first half where he hit back-to-back-to-back triples to give the Raptors the lead.

This was a weird 20/10 game for JV. I gave him the A- on the strength of the line, and he was great offensively, but his defense continues to be an issue. He doesn’t look healthy out there, and this Wolves team is too talented not to take advantage of his weak play on that end. Still, a nice double double and he scored with ease.

DeRozan started the night 0-6, before finding his footing offensively in the second half when he scored at will, and he had an incredible put-back dunk over Ricky Rubio late in the fourth quarter.

Still, a lot of Zach LaVine’s 29 points where with DeRozan guarding him, and I had to dock DeMar’s grade a little bit because of that. His defense simply wasn’t good tonight, and he can be better on that end.

Great performance all around from Kyle. At some point in the fourth quarter, it just felt like he’d had enough of this game and took it over, hitting a 31 foot 3-pointer late in the shot clock and then a 4-point play. Lowry was incredible tonight, and he continued his strong shooting of late.

Bebe had a quiet night, which is usually a good thing for him. Had a near double-double and 3 blocks, but my notes don’t say a lot about him aside from the odd nice play. It’s nice to just expect him to be solid in the minutes he’s out there this year.

Continues to shoot the lights out, but Joseph was a team low -10 and it didn’t really feel like the two point guard lineups were usable most of the night, because he struggled against the bigger Wolves guards defensively.

Carroll had foul trouble early in the first quarter, which messed up the first half rotations. Caused Ross to come in a few minutes in, which meant he also didn’t get his normal minutes with the Lowry and the bench lineup in the second. Didn’t shoot well in his first quarter minutes and didn’t seem comfortable. Came back in in the second half in his normal minutes, and was effective with 6 fourth quarter points.

Norm got Terry’s normal second quarter minutes, and the lineup seemed to miss the defensive attention Ross gets, where Norm doesn’t seem to get the same respect in terms of off-ball attention. Not much to say, he only played 7 minutes and didn’t attempt a shot.

Five Things We Saw

The first half rotations didn’t feel right, mostly because of those two early fouls for Carroll. It took away those important Lowry and the bench minutes and seemed to throw off the team.

The Timberwolves made a point of, when the starting lineup was on the floor, attacking DeRozan, Siakam and Valanciunas, and it worked. Valanciunas appears to be hurt and has no quickness, Siakam doesn’t have the experience to guards Towns, and DeRozan isn’t a strong defender, and Minnesota took advantage of all 3.

In the late fourth quarter, the Raptors just showed that they’re a team who knows how to win and the Timberwolves aren’t there yet. It’s nice to be on the winning side of these type of games at this point.

With a back-to-back tomorrow night, it’s safe to assume Carroll will likely get the night off again, and expect Norm to get the start. Carroll has looked better of late though, and at some point soon we might see him playing both halves of back-to-backs.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/08/quick-reaction-raptors-124-timberwolves-110/feed/0Pre-game news & notes: Carroll suits up, Wiggins intends to play for Canada, DeRozan sets GP recordhttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/08/pre-game-news-notes-carroll-status-unclear-wiggins-intends-play-canada/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/12/08/pre-game-news-notes-carroll-status-unclear-wiggins-intends-play-canada/#respondThu, 08 Dec 2016 21:57:37 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=75656Wiggins has taken a nice step forward this year and now has to deal with some of the same attention DeRozan does.

]]>Andrew Wiggins is in town to visit the Toronto Raptors with his Minnesota Timberwolves, which is always a fun occasion. Canada’s biggest basketball prospect ever, Wiggins took nice strides as a sophomore last year, keeping expectations high ahead of his third campaign. And he hasn’t disappointed, pushing his scoring average to 22.2 points per-game, averaging a career-high 2.4 assists, and finally knocking down threes consistently, hitting 38.3 percent of nearly four attempts per-game, a huge development in his offensive arsenal. Defensively, Wiggins’ impact still isn’t necessarily being felt in the advanced metrics, but he has the length, quickness, and fundamentals to continue to grow into a major factor on that end.

I’ve seen some express disappointment about Wiggins’ NBA career so far, and I really can’t understand that perspective. He’s still just 21 years old, and while I acknowledge that expectations are enormous for a No. 1 pick and such a heralded prospect, he hasn’t exactly disappointed. Development is hardly linear, but he seems, to me, to be on the path to being at least a very capable No. 2 alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, who looks like a future top-five player in the NBA. And there’s still plenty of time for Wiggins to make sure the role is that of a 1B rather than a No. 2. It seems as if he’s at least put to rest some of the unfounded notions that he lacks some sort of internal or mental factor to become great. He’s very good, and I’m very certain he will be great.

(As a comparison, at the same point in their careers, DeMar DeRozan was less efficient offensively on a smaller volume, had a lower assist rate, and didn’t project as nearly a good defender. And he was a bit older in his third season. DeRozan is a marvel of annual development and his curve is not at all something others can be expected to follow, especially with the improvements DeRozan continues to make here later in his career, but it’s encouraging about where Wiggins could potentially grow from here. For his part, DeRozan seems to understand the Wolves’ plight as they develop.)

He’s also played really well in his four games against the Raptors, averaging 23 points, 3.8 rebounds, and two assists on 56.2-percent true-shooting with a 30.4-percent usage rate, his highest against any opponent. This should be a lot of fun.

The lineThe Raptors opened as 7.5-point favorites according to sports betting sites and quickly saw that line bought up to Raptors -9.5. It’s currently sitting at Raptors -9, which is pretty large considering Minnesota’s point differential and late-game performances suggest their true talent level so far is much better than their record, but the Raptors are also fairly well-rested after two days off, and they’re at home. The over-under has been fairly steady around the 214 mark, a bet against two below-average defenses shutting each other down despite both sides playing at below-average paces.

We’ll wait to see Carroll’s status before picking aside (and to see if the line moves). Speaking of which…

Raptors updates
As usual with a back-to-back scenario, DeMarre Carroll is likely to sit either Thursday against Minnesota or Friday against Boston. It makes more sense to me, from a matchup perspective, for Carroll to rest against a lesser Minnesota team and suit up against a Boston outfit that likes to push Jae Crowder to the four similar to how the Raptors do with Carroll, but the team could look at things differently. Toronto could want Carroll in for the Wolves to help with Wiggins and help check the larger Shabazz Muhammad, for example, or they may not want Boston having the option of trying to hide Isaiah Thomas on Carroll while letting their top defenders load up on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. I still think overall, starting Carroll against Boston makes a bit more sense, but it’s as much of a coin flip as the earlier back-to-backs Carroll rested for, so who knows?

Check back before tip-off for an update on Carroll. Norman Powell would stand to start and draw the Wiggins assignment out of the gate if Caroll takes the night off.

UPDATE: Carroll will play. Head coach Dwane Casey said the back-to-back restriction will be lifted “hopefully soon,” as Carroll’s gaining strength and stamina. He will not, however, play against the Celtics on Friday, with Casey citing matchups (Wiggins and the Wolves’ ability to go smaller with some tricky looks) as the reason behind the choice.

The even bigger concern for Toronto may be how to deal with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is essentially ungauradable (he suggested HE is the player best suited to guard himself at shootaround, which was pretty hilarious). One of the most entertaining and eminently likeable young players in the league, Towns is an impossible blend of speed, size, skill, and shooting, at Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Pascal Siakam, and Patrick Patterson will have their hands full. It’s not like Gorgui Dieng is ineffective offensively, either, and Nemnaja Bjelica threatens to stretch the floor out a little bit, too, always a challenge for Raptors’ bigs. The Wolves are also a top-five offensive rebounding team, and with the Raptors struggling on their own glass so far, that couldbe a major factor in this one.

On the bright side, Minnesota allows a high volume of opponent 3-point attempts and they’re very foul-prone, playing in to some of the elements that have made the Raptors’ offense so lethal of late.

Timberwolves updates
Minnesota is healthy for the most part outside of Nikola Pekvoic, but Brandon Rush’s status remains a question mark due to a toe sprain. Rush wasn’t playing nightly, anyway, so the Wolves can roughly be considered to have most of their hands on deck. (Minor update: Apparently Rush was available but not used Tuesday, so I’d guess he’s available again here.)

The Raptors will need to try to handle their business early on, as the Wolves are one of the league’s best first-half teams and one of its worst second-half teams. That’s probably some noise given the similarity in the rotations each half, but it could speak a little to Minnesota still just learning to win games and close out. It almost certainly suggests that the Wolves are more dangerous than their 6-15 record, as the Raptors learned the hard way by checking out for the All-Star break a little too early with Wiggins and company still on the schedule.

One lineup to look out for is Minnesota’s “LaVine-plus-bench” unit that could see time across from the Raptors’ own effective bench-heavy groups (LaVine is the only starter who spends significant time anchoring bench-heavy groups). In 54 minutes that LaVine’s played with Dunn, Muhammad, Bjelica, and Aldrich, the Wolves have outscored opponents by 23.8 points per-100 possessions. Their starters with Jones in place of Rubio have also been quite good, with a net rating of 19.1 over an admittedly small 34-minute sample. Interestingly, the starting five is the fourth-most used lineup in the entire NBA this year, though they’ve struggled some, especially coming out of the half.

Expect Wiggins to draw the DeRozan assignment and show off some of the defensive potential the Wolves hope eventually turns in to team-level difference-making, while the quick-handed Ricky Rubio tries to bottle up Lowry. Towns’ ability to hedge, switch, and protect the rim will make life tough, but the Wolves are a bottom-five defense, so there will certainly be seams to exploit, especially in transition.

It’s the second Huskies Night of the season. The shorts are so slick up close. I want.

DeMar DeRozan officially passes Morris Peterson for the most games played in franchise history tonight. This marks his 543rd game with the team. He’s only 407 minutes and 250 points from passing Chris Bosh for the top spot on those leaderboards, too. The “Best Raptor Ever” conversation continues to get more and more interesting.

In good news for fans of Canada Basketball, Andrew Wiggins told reporters at shootaround that he intends to play for Canada in international competition in the future. (“Yeah, definitely,” were his exact words, though he didn’t really elaborate.)

Wiggins’ coach, Tom Thibodeau, is a proponent of using international play as a development tool, and he had nothing but great things to say about the Raptors’ Olympicans he worked with as a member of the USA Basketball coaching staff.

Thibs on Lowry/DeRozan: “They were terrific to be around and they were a big part of that team winning the gold”

We made mention of Masai Ujiri’s third annual Giant of Africa event celebrating the life of Nelson Mandela on Monday, and the NBA has a cool short video on the event. As always, Ujiri remains the best, and it’s nice to root for a franchise that uses its power and platform to try to inspire positive change.

]]>Last season, whenever the Toronto Raptors had back-to-back days off, I’d drop an #RRMailbag. They take a lot of time to put together, so I need the extra day turnaround time. Or something.You can find all of the previous editions here, though I don’t know why you’d bother. In any case, the regular feature is back this year, at least when dual days off don’t fall on a weekend.

Before we go ahead: A reminder that we have a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more). You can also follow me on Twitter for, uhh, tweets, and on Facebook for all of my writing/podcasting/radio stuff. Validate me.

Well, part of that depends on what you initially expected him to be. It’s RUDE to go back and look at NBADraft.net’s player comparisons, but as an example, they had Jonas Valanciunas’ NBA comparisons as Spencer Hawes and Primoz Brezec. If those were your expectations, well, he’s gotten there and exceeded them. If your expectations were closer to those of the Raptors, Spurs, and Warriors (the latter two of whom tried to move up to No. 5 to get him, only to be rebuffed by the former), then he’s not there yet, sure. I’d hazard against calling a 24-year-old big man who’s a quality scorer in a handful of ways and an elite rebounder a bust (not your words, but I’ve seen it thrown around), but I understand that he’s not the two-way building block that some wanted him to be by this point.

As for whether he gets there, well, probably not if your expectations included high-end rim protection and an above-average defender overall. Were Valanciunas in another environment, I have little question that his offense could produce at a higher volume more in line with the expectations for a No. 5 pick. He’s very good on that end, his passing has improved a little bit (at least when stationary – he still struggles to stop in the middle of a mechanical move to change his mind about what he’s going to do), and he’s still just 24, two or three years before bigs typically hit the peak of their development curve. But he’s not going to get there defensively. For the fifth season in a row, the Raptors are better with Valanciunas off the floor than on it due to a combination of him being a negative on defense and his role not allowing his offense to make up for it.

Having said all of that, he’s still a useful piece, is a part of some quality Raptors lineups, and the sudden frontcourt depth the Raptors have is a positive, not a reason to run Valanciunas out of town.

@BlakeMurphyODC#RRMailbag Agree or not? JV doesn't give us what we need on D & w/guard dominant O he'll never have a usage boost, so trade?

I think there are a few shades of grey between those options. If I’m the Raptors (to be clear, I am not), Valanciunas is definitely on the table in any trade discussions, particularly if those negotiations might bring back a big. He’s not untouchable, because while he’s mostly a good player and his deal is more than reasonable, he’s also the team’s best trade chip, blending substantial outgoing salary on a fair deal, immediate production, and some additional perceived upside.

But the market for lumbering centers who suddenly can’t find the floor late in games for a title hopeful probably isn’t that robust. What I always come back to when I’m asked about trades is that if you’re really down on a guy at the moment, is selling at the nadir of his value really the best approach? Or looked at differently, if the fanbase is eager to get rid of a piece, why does said fanbase think there would be strong trade value? (Again, you didn’t say these things, Mark, but it’s a general theme I’ve noticed.) If Valanciunas is so bad, suggesting a swap of Valanciunas for Cousins makes little sense.

So, yeah, Valanciunas is absolutely available in the right deal, but I’m not shopping him just to get rid of him or because he might not reach his ceiling here. He’s still a useful player, and in year five, the Raptors have the option to accept him for what he is and try to maximize that rather than worrying that he has to be on the court late or they have to tweak their defense around him.

I’m not sure that’s going to be enough. Unfortunately, even with a really great draft class in 2017, the value of the Raptors’ draft assets are pretty low – a pair of picks in the 25-30 range, a second-rounder likely to come right at the end of the draft, and a bevy of future firsts and seconds a team can’t be sure won’t be late in the draft, too. Those picks still have value, but they’re closer to a sweetener than a major trade chip. (Uncertainty about how the new CBA may pay late first-round picks or treat rookie-scale extensions adds to this ever so slightly.) And then there’s the matter of Valanciunas’ salary alone only allowing you to take back about $19.4M, so if you’re bringing in a quality piece there’s not much room to take on dead money, too.

In all likelihood, any deal for a difference-maker that is built around Valanciunas and picks will also include a prospect or, if you’re talking someone in the DeMarcus Cousins class, multiple players/prospects. It’s always possible another team really likes Valanciunas, though.

The usual trade talk

@BlakeMurphyODC Which camp are you in? "Being 2nd best in the East is a nice spot" or "We need to make a move to beat Cleveland"?

Can’t I be in both camps? Not to be wishy-washy, but I think both of those things are pretty true. It is a nice spot to be second in the East, especially given the history of this franchise and how long the fanbase has waited to even just be consistently competitive. We’re living in the best era in Raptors history, coming off the best regular season in three consecutive years, the deepest playoff run ever a year ago, and this year’s team might ultimately have an even higher upside than the groups before them. It’s a good time to be a Raptors fan.

The Raptors do need to make a move to beat Cleveland, though. I guess I’m in the former camp because I don’t think they need to make a move in the bigger picture. Their intention is to get past Cleveland, to be clear, but I don’t think they would be willing to sacrifice being very good for a long time for a slightly better chance at passing the Cavs (especially since there’s no deal out there that would make them a title favorite). They’re not going to take a wild swing unless it improves their odds significantly. I’m a fan of the Five Percent Rule, where if you think you have a five-percent chance at winning the title, you’re justified at going all in. With Cleveland and Golden State existing as they do, that’s a tough bar to clear.

So to give an actual answer, I think it is more important to make sure that the team can be very good over a longer stretch of time than to be over-aggressive maximizing a one-year window. I understand that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan aren’t getting younger, but there’s a reason Masai Ujiri has built this team to win now while also staying competitive into the future (they’re among the youngest teams in the league) – flexibility, stability, continuity, and the chance to pitch free agents (and fans) on a reliable, high-quality organization are all important, and the Raptors will only risk those crucial long-term franchise-building elements for the right fit.

(I’m also just skeptical that any team a) puts a big name on the market, and b) likes the Raptors’ package best. It takes two, and it’s hard to find logical partners that couldn’t get more from someone else.)

If one presents itself, sure, but the safe bet in these cases is always on inertia, given the number of things that need to line up for a big trade to happen. As explained more above, there is just too much value in what they have to make a poorly calculated gamble, and I think the Raptors will err on the side of caution. That doesn’t mean they won’t be active – they were in the discussion on Serge Ibaka, called about Paul Millsap, and would probably inquire if DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, or another clear upgrade in the frontcourt materialized – but so many things need to break right that I’d guess no. I think they’re OK being *just* very good and trusting their development, given the dearth of trade targets.

Absolutely not. Unless it’s a move that significantly lowers the gap between Toronto and Cleveland, the Raptors aren’t going to tinker with a very strong chemistry and task-cohesive locker room just to feel like they made a splash. That’s not Ujiri’s style, and it’s not the way you jump from one level to the next. Short of adding a star or borderline star, or maybe a really small depth piece at the forward spots, I can’t see the Raptors tinkering just to tinker. Internal development and continuity are a large part of what’s got them this far.

It’s probably a little early for this question (not to ask it, but to answer it accurately). So many teams still don’t have clarity on whether they’re contenders or not. Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Dallas are probably self-aware enough to write themselves off and become sellers (without great pieces to dangle, although the idea of reinvigorating Tyson Chandler might be intriguing to some). Miami, Sacramento, and Minnesota may get there eventually, though the Wolves wouldn’t be aggressive sellers. Washington should fold the franchise, but what do they have to offer? Everyone else can still talk themselves into making a playoff push, if that’s their goal.

Here are the names I think Raptors fans can look at as potential best hopes: Danilo Gallinari (pending free agent, hurts the defense a little bit but really opens up some fun stuff at the forward spots), Serge Ibaka (been down this road but the Magic are bad and might want to recoup some assets before he potentially walks), DeMarcus Cousins (duh, but you better pray Vlade Divac loves him some Valanciunas), and the long-shot, Paul Millsap (the Hawks historically don’t like to be sellers, even if they think a guy might leave). You can dream on these names as upgrades at the four or five, but each seems quite unlikely.

Any names below that tier that might hit the market run the risk of not being worth losing depth and disrupting chemistry.

Ibaka or Gallinari if they became available. I’m not sure any other difference makers hit the market.

My favorite name as a lower-end addition, if the Raptors get itchy and want to add some depth, would be Jared Dudley. I think his mix of defense, shooting, and personality would make him a great fit in Toronto, and he’d add some depth to the three-four spot with two completely reasonable years on his deal past this one. Sadly, he is probably not going anywhere and would likely be superfluous, anyway, and the outgoing salary required makes a deal tough.

And if you ever wondered if I even shoot down my own trade ideas, the answer is apparently yes.

Raptors miscellaneous

@BlakeMurphyODC Why specifically isn't Raps roster matching up vs teams at top and bottom? It's not just elite teams. Getting schooled on D

For full disclosure, I’m not entirely sure what this question is asking. If it’s about the defense as a whole, I think “getting schooled” is a bit too far – the Raptors rank 16th in defensive efficiency, completely average (it drops to 17th when controlling for schedule, a negligible difference). That’s not great, but it’s not terrible, and I never thought this Raptors team was likely to be a top-10 defensive outfit. They just don’t have the rim protection, their transition coverage of the 3-point line remains a multi-year work in progress, and there is enough youth in the frontcourt that mistakes are to be expected.

There is one big issue with the defense that I see fixing itself over time (other than the young players developing) – the defensive rebounding has been atrocious. Always a strong team on their own glass thanks in large part to the dominance of Valanciunas, the Raptors have somehow fallen to 26th in defensive rebounding rate. They’ve gotten by in the past by forcing a lot of turnovers and cleaning up their own glass. Essentially, the Raptors haven’t stopped teams from scoring all that well on their possessions, but they’ve done a great job limiting the number of shooting possessions. They’re still forcing a lot of turnovers and Valanciunas remains terrific in that area, but the rest of the team has done a worse job in support. Lucas Nogueira is a below-average rebounder, Patrick Patterson probably grades out the same (the last few games aside), and the guards and wings aren’t doing quite as good a job cracking back as they have in the past. That’s something that should sort itself out as the season wears on, and it will help lift the defense a little further.

As for not matching up with top teams, well, top teams are good. The Raptors are in the NBA’s second tier. It’s a lovely place to be, there are just a small handful of teams that are clearly better.

@BlakeMurphyODC is this finally the year I allow myself to believe derozan won't stink in the playoffs?

I don’t see why not. He’s yet again taken strides and improved his game, getting even better at getting his shot off, improving his footwork in the post, getting stronger, and getting to the line even more than in the past. Perhaps most encouraging, he’s really embraced the role of facilitator as defenses have geared up to stop him more and more, averaging a career-high 4.3 assists and dishing four or more in 13 consecutive games. It’s that improved passing, recognition, and decision-making – not just his scoring – that’s helped take the Raptors’ offense to an even higher level. The more varied the offense and the more threats on the floor, the harder it is to stop a team, and DeRozan getting better and better at shifting between roles should make him a little more matchup proof so long as he takes the same approach in the postseason (and rest assured, opponents will still be selling out to stop Lowry and DeRozan in a seven-game series).

Plus, if you don’t let yourself believe that, it’s going to be a long couple of months. Open up your heart to the ceiling.

It’s so funny how I think back on those teams. They are clearly so bad, but because you have no choice but to sell yourself on the potential and the hope at that time, some of them wind up holding a place in your heart for way longer than they have any right to. But I don’t think there’s any going back to those halcyon days unless thing go awry – an important byproduct of sustaining a certain level of success over a long period time is that it builds organizational equity, which can, in turn, make it easier to perpetuate that level of success. The Raptors aren’t there just yet, but they’re on their way, which is why I find so much value in even repeating last year’s success this time around.

It’s definitely something that gets discussed – Casey even joked early in the year that he texted DeRozan after the Olympics asking why he can’t defend like that for the Raptors. (Side note: I have no idea what Olympics the coach was watching.)

I think DeRozan being what he is defensively is allowed to happen for a number of reasons. The primary one is just that DeRozan’s offensive load is so heavy and takes such a toll physically that you almost don’t want him expending too much energy on that end, at least not until it matters. He was among the top 12 in minutes played, free-throw attempts, and miles run last year. His offensive minutes are hard, and there are only a handful of players in the league with this kind of offensive workload and elite defense. He’s also just not a particularly adept defender, so wringing your hands to him would amount to trying to bleed a stone. (Ok, it’s not that extreme, but DeRozan probably tops out as an average defender even when dialed in.) The Raptors understand his limitations, and it’s why every other guard/wing in the rotation is a decent-to-strong defender.

I don’t think it’s the end of the world he’s not great defensively in most lineup iterations. Usually opponents have one place he can hide, and when he’s fully engaged (in a playoff series, say), he’s capable of handling some player types fine enough. It is what it is.

This is a really hard question that should probably just be it’s own article at some point next offseason. Basically, I’m of the mind that the best approach is for the Raptors to continue to exist in this second tier, because it allows you to either strike when a player becomes available (a trade is always going to be more realistic for a team at this level, which is why the Raptors have been smart to draft and develop youth where they can) or take advantage when the league hits a weird lull year (think of the Mavericks’ title run). There’s not a path to landing a top-five player from where Toronto is, and tearing it down to build from scratch is not a reasonable approach, so you kind of just keep your chips at the ready and continue to build up the organization so people want to play here.

That’s not a real answer to the question, I guess, but it is the approach I would take – keep your powder dry for a shift in the league’s landscape, because things will inevitably change, and being in a position to capitalize is the best I’ve got without a mega-star.

I’ve always been really high on Nogueira’s potential to emerge as a useful rotation big, because the raw size, passing acumen, and basketball IQ are a hard blend to find. He thinks the offensive side of the ball at a very high level and uses his length really well around the rim at both ends. He needs to improve as a rebounder and get the quick fouls under control, and his defense outside of blocking shots is up and down, but otherwise, I think the experiment is coming along quite nicely. In terms of upside, I’m not sure he’s ever an average starter, but if he keeps going along this path and improving his body, I think he could have a solid career as a high-end backup. That’s not to say he couldn’t ever be a starter – you did ask “ceiling” – but he’ll need to improve defensively and add some strength to his lower half without losing quickness to get there.

And I could definitely see certain matchups where he’d be a preferable option for closing out games, for sure. Generally, I’d prefer closing games smaller if Valanciunas isn’t going to be playable, because the Raptors are sacrificing the glass when Valanciunas sits, anyway, and the smaller groups allow for more switching and a better transition game and improved spacing. Playing without a rim-protector and screen-setter isn’t always doable, though, and I could see Casey playing the matchups at the five. They’ll go with who they think gives them the best chance to win, and they’ve shown that.

Having said all of that, it’s early. I really like Nogueira as a player, but it’s been a month, and consistency has always been a bit of an issue with him. Even someone optimistic about him, like me, should need to see it over a longer stretch of time before getting too excited.

If Siakam goes down for a few games in Dec. who would Casey start at PF? #RRMailbag

I would think he’d finally have to go to Patterson in this event. There are no other power forwards on the roster other than Bruno Caboclo (look at his on-off stats, he’s amazing!), and I’d be shocked if the team was OK starting DeMarre Carroll at the four. I like those lineups as much as anyone, but starting out that way puts a heavy toll on Carroll and would magnify their current rebounding struggles, plus leave them susceptible to some of the bigger opponents out there. I think they’d play with him at the four a lot, I just think they’d pick their spots carefully, which is easier to do starting Patterson and staggering rotations than by starting small.

Maybe not in terms of actually stopping teams from scoring (he’s better than Luis Scola was defending at power forward but worse than Patterson or probably Siakam), but Sullinger is an elite defensive rebounder, and he and Valanciunas would be among the best rebounding tandems in the league when playing together. Corralling misses is an important part of defense, and he’d help in that regard. His impact would definitely be larger on the offensive side of the ball, though, and in the flexibility to go small-but-not-too-small he would provide. Luckily, points are points, and extra depth never hurt anyone.

I hope never, because my eye’s been twitching for like four days (again) and I’m convincing myself these kind of things are just fine. Plus, if it bursts, he’s going to have to start wearing his hat like a normal person, and nobody wants that.

Axel Toupane’s definitely at the top of the list for me. There’s a reason the Nuggets scooped him up last year and that he nearly cracked their roster this year even though he’s still not a finished product. Few players have the size, length, quickness, and strength to present problems as a defender across multiple positions like Toupane can (he guards one through three regularly and occasionally the four). He’s also taken such great strides as a secondary playmaker capable of tearing opponents to shreds in the semi-transition game that he’s a really nice second-unit prospect. And he’s still just 24, with an improving stroke from the corners. There’s a lot to like.

Projecting who might get a call is sometimes an inexact science, as teams will look for more than just raw production or fit or ultimate upside. Ronald Roberts, for example, was among the best players in the league last year before getting hurt but couldn’t buy a call-up because nobody with a roster spot needed help at the four. There was some concern Sim Bhullar would get a call even though he wasn’t ready, just because of his size and the fact that a few teams didn’t have anything to play for at the end of the year, anyway, so why not try it out? So it’s a little hard to project what needs and incentives teams may have come January, when 10-day contracts become legal, and with more and more teams having their own affiliates, the likelihood of across-team call-ups becomes at least a little less likely.

If I had to guess, I’d suggest your list of three is pretty close, though I personally think Tavares would benefit from a longer stint down there. Leslie has been incredible so far, and Brady Heslip’s shooting always keeps him on the radar, even with his limitations. Things change incredibly quickly, though, and while the 905 are among the best teams in the D-League, who gets the call ultimately comes down to more than just who’s playing the best or who might seem like the obvious call-up.

NBA miscellaneous

This is what my long-term fantasy football keeper league does for the draft order, so I cringe at the thought of an NBA commissioner enacting a policy I, myself, enacted. I don’t really think there’s much wrong with the current format, to be honest. Yes, the whole Sam Hinkie experiment happened, but look at what it produced – a few misses at the No. 1 pick and a longer timeline to productive assets than maybe anticipated. That’s in line with Hinkie’s vision and it’s fine, but I’d guess most franchises don’t have the stomach for that long a building plan. And I think it’s important to give the lesser teams a means of acquiring high-end talent, and the amount of tanking that takes place is, I think, a bit overstated outside of Philly.

I’m sure they do. Most of the instances in which I see players missing a box out assignment are on rotations where it’s more a mental thing than a physical one (for example, if Nogueira helps at the rim on a drive and nobody picks up his man). The actual technique, I mean, most guys at this stage know how to do it and it becomes a battle of strength and variance, but I’d guess that blown box-outs are far more mental than technical.

Non-basketball miscellaneous

The Tilted Kilt exists in such a weird bubble. I thought only people from out of town who were parking too far East of the ACC/SkyDome went there, because hehe chicks, bro, and I’d never heard anyone in town suggest it as a meeting spot until our one party there a while back. The TV setup is fine but everything else is standard fare, and the ambiance is, uhh, interesting. I was pushing for The Craft because it’s right outside my front door, but we split the difference with Sam’s favorite place, Fynn’s of Temple Bar. If anyone would like us to use their establishment for our next Raptors Republic event, you can secure our business by emailing raptorsrepublic at gmail dot com.

I’ll have to side with Ujiri and Weltman given the respective sample sizes in the city, though I don’t object strongly to anything Shapiro and Atkins have or have not done so far in their tenure. The work Shaprio did in Cleveland, especially from fan-engagement and system-building standpoints, was strong. The baseball duo also came in to a pretty nice situation with a ready-to-win MLB roster that just needed help on the business and farm system sides. Ujiri and Weltman (and Webster and Tolzman, and Leiweke should probably be included), however, have completely changed the way the league looks at the Raptors, stabilized a franchise that’s long sought such stability, and added ancillary elements (BioSteel, 905, All-Star, Drake) that have really improved the organizational equity there. Maybe Shapiro and Atkins end up doing that amount of good, too, but for now they’re trailing.

As with most instances early in the offseason, fans are being reactionary, and that’s entirely fine, and I get it. It is also Dec. 7, the Jays were likely shocked that Encarnacaion didn’t take what sounds like an above-market offer, and Shapiro and Atkins very clearly wanted to move quickly to shore up the team’s floor, knowing a decent ceiling is still in place. The acquisitions have been somewhat boring (I’m not a fan of the Kendrys Morales deal but think Steve Pearce’s versatility is a huge addition at that price) and there remain holes to fill, but the Jays also have an MVP contender, quality players all the way up the middle, and a pitching staff that’s already in place and quite good. Yes, the Red Sox are going to be stupidly, annoyingly good, and it might mean the Jays are playing for the Wild Card, but that’s not the worst place to be in.

And again, it’s Dec. 7. Things will be fine-ish.

@BlakeMurphyODC#RRMailbag AJ Styles, Rollins, Kenny Omega. Who's the best in the world & 1-10 scale, how excited are you for Mania season?

I have Styles at the top right now, but the gap between him and The Cleaner is small. I’m probably just giving Styles the edge because I get to see so much more of him, and because he’s so insanely out-performed expectations for his WWE run that I almost think he was somehow actually underrated before signing, despite being roundly considered the best talent outside of the E. He is incredible, hasn’t had a bad match in years, is a way better promo (at least as a heel) than he gets credit for, and has gotten absolutely everything handed to him over to a high degree. He is, essentially, flawless as a performer right now. Omega is amazing, too, though, and gets the Canadian bump. I have Rollins a fair margin behind those guys and not even in third, but obviously Crossfit Jesus is quite good himself.

As for ‘Mania season, well, considering I have tickets, I’m pretty damn excited. (I am unsure if I’m actually going, as I bought the tickets mostly with the safety net that I know I’ll be able to break even selling them later.) The WWE is in their lull period right now and basketball keeps me busy, so I’m kind of in “throw it on in the background” or “fast-forward through some stuff” mode right now, but January-April is the best time of the year for pro graps, and 2016’s been so incredible I’m optimistic about the next year.

The rare text-message question from The Man They Call Your Boy The Zubes: “#JustForZubes mailbag Q: Who would you rank as the top 10 wrestlers not affiliated with WWE in any way currently?

After not at all much deliberation, here’s my list, in no order (and these are my favorites, maybe not objectively the “best”): Marty Scurll, Kenny Omega, Kazuchika Okada, Will Ospreay, Ricochet/Prince Puma, Pentagon Jr., Tetsua Naito, Katsuyori Shibata, Ethan Carter III, and The Young Bucks (package deal that counts as one). This list leaves off Broken Matt Hardy, the clear number one, because my brother said he doesn’t count.

Speaking of my brother, I’m not sure I know anyone who watches more wrestling and watches it more passionately than him, save for maybe my friends at Voices of Wrestling. So I asked him for his top 10, in the event my only-sometimes-non-WWE-viewing ass isn’t a good enough authority here. Here’s Shane’s list: Kenny Omega, The Young Bucks, Jay Lethal, Adam Cole (Bay-Bay!), Katsuyori Shibata, Tetsua Naito, SANADA, Tomohiro Ishii, Yano Yoru, and Joey Ryan. (I disagree on Ryan, but Ishii is the truth, and my Stone Pitbull shirt is my favorite gym shirt.)

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]]>It’s said by the time teams play 20 games in a season their identity has been established. In fact, most analysts believe by this point not much shifting will occur among the top seeds. There is a reason for that logic. By this stage, teams have traveled and played a section of top and lower tier squads.

John Schuhmann of NBA.com expounds upon this theory with solid facts saying:

Sixteen teams make the playoffs every year. And over the last 10 full seasons (throwing out the 2011-12 lockout-shortened season), an average of 13.6 of the 16 have been in playoff position at the quarter pole. Basically, seven of the top eight teams in each conference at this point in the season will stay there.

Most telling is Schuhmann’s chart highlighting how many teams who were top 8 at the quarter mark finished top 8 (excluding the strike shortened season of 2011-12).

So, you’re probably asking why I’m bringing this up on a game day. Well, it’s either my abject stubbornness or perhaps my theory this season will be the exception to the rule is accurate.

Consider how different this season has been on a whole:

More players began the season shooting 30 plus points than ever before (including Raptors very own DeMar DeRozan who scored 30 or more in 10 of his first 12 games, equaling the record last achieved by Michael Jordan)

Players are posting triple-double performances at a much higher rate (due mostly to the super human efforts of Russell Westbrook who already has 11 this season, with 6 in-a-row).

Youthful teams like the Timberwolves, Jazz, 76ers, Suns, Lakers and Nuggets may well represent the future of the NBA. Yet, heading into this season most pundits thought the Jazz and Wolves would vie for playoff berths (myself included).

The Jazz are definitely poised to make the leap with the under rated MVP dark horse – George Hill showing the way. But, Minnesota has been struggling to figure out the next steps which will push them over the top. At season start the Wolves would build effortless 20 point leads in the first half, only to give everything back in the third quarter. Through 21 games, the Wolves have won the third quarter on just 3 occasions and tied on 2 others. Minnesota posts a plus differential in all quarters except the third:

First Quarter – plus +2.1

Second Quarter: plus +2.3

Third Quarter: minus -6.9

Fourth Quarter: plus +0.8

Overtime: plus +5.0

Yet, when I look at the standings in the Western Conference there is a tight cluster of teams under the playoff line. The Lakers have seemingly woken up to recognize losing out on this talent rich draft would be a major mistake (Lakers have a 1-3 protected pick, otherwise it goes to Philly). Phoenix and Dallas appear to be jostling for the number 1 lottery pick. Boogie Cousins and the Kings are ready to pull their annual self-combustion act and the Pelicans seem doomed once more. That leaves the Nuggets (my other dark horse) and the Wolves left to make a bid for a lower ladder playoff berth.

Perhaps I’m stuck on this Timberwolves playoff bid based on Tom Thibodeau being the man in charge. In his 5 seasons with Chicago, his Bulls never missed the playoffs and they averaged 51 wins per season. Much like the Jazz, behind Quin Snyder’s brilliant defense turned a corner to become a top defensive unit, I keep waiting for the Wolves to do the same. There have been signs all season of Minnesota being on the precipice, but aside from a few solid victories (OT vs Hornets) they’ve yet to string together a series of wins.

Minnesota’s next 5 games are against current playoff teams. After that they have a 12 game portion of the schedule where they’ll play 8 non-playoff squads as well as the Blazers, Thunder, Bucks and Jazz; all squads they’ve fared well against. If they intend on climbing the ladder, NOW is the time they’ll need to make a move.

That said, Schuhmann provides a solid factual foundation for bashing my theory into bits. Suffice to say I may have to wait one more season until I see my NBA League Pass guilty pleasure donning jerseys in late Spring.

With that, let’s break down tonight’s game:

Statistical Comparison:

Walking Wounded:

Raptors:

Delon Wright – shoulder, is getting shots up and will see doctor next week to be cleared for full contact as he continues his process to return to regular action

Jared Sullinger – foot, had surgery expected to remain out until January as per Masai Ujiri

Wolves:

Brandon Rush – has been dealing with a sprained big toe. He was available to play on Tuesday, but was a Coaches Decision DNP

Comparing Line-ups:

Bench plus one starter:

Much like the Raptors 4 reserves plus Kyle Lowry tend to be the squads best line-up the Wolves have a similar situation. When Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine joins 4 reserves good things happen. Most of the games where the Wolves have fought back has involved one of the dynamic dunkers with the Wolves reserves.

The Raptors reserves boast the top ranked offensive rating with a healthy +9.7 differential over fourth ranked Wolves reserve unit.

Defensive Rating:

Only 0.3 separates the two teams reserve units who rank 10th and 12th respectively on the defensive end of the court.

Net Rating:

Just like the offensive ranking, the Raptors and Wolves rank first and fourth respectively in Net Ranking. Last week the Lakers reserve unit, who was producing 60 points per game, arrived to face the Raptors and while there were some noticeable absences due to injury, Toronto easily grabbed the upper hand. The question is can the Raptors have the same success versus the Wolves bench unit?

Best Line-Ups:

Comparing the top offensive lines in the NBA finds the Raptors sitting in the top spot with the noted reserve line plus Lowry. LaVine plus the Wolves reserves have the 6th best offensive line.

Notable Player Match-Ups:

Jonas Valanciunas has been laboring since he hurt his knee and ankle. I’d almost suggest resting the big guy a game to prepare for the Celtics tomorrow night. Towns will offer a handful for JV, Bebe or whoever is tasked with guarding him. Like many of the new age bigs, Towns is equally adept at scoring in the post as he is at stretching out to the 3-point line which his handsome 37.8% three point field goal percentage suggests. Casey’s best bet may be to go to Patterson early in an effort to slow the KAT down.

Gorgui Dieng is said to be a Thibs favorite. Look for Thibs to run some plays at Siakam to test the rookie early.

Since the Raptors are playing again Friday, might we see DeMarre Carroll rested tonight in order to be fresh for Boston? (Especially since Carroll has a vested interest in playing Jae Crowder – see the closing statement). I’d say the odds on that are very likely.

Norman Powell would be the probable benefactor in this case. The question is who Casey tasks with guarding Wiggins and who guards LaVine. Of the two super talents, Wiggins is more consistent and LaVine tends to be a streakier shooter. Knowing Wiggins will be amped to perform in front of the home town crowd, he’s likely to be on the top of the chalk board for today’s game plan alongside Towns.

Although LaVine boasts a better plus/minus differential, defensively Wiggins will be assigned the task of stopping DeRozan since Thibs uses him on the opponent’s best player.

An x-factor for the Wolves is Bjelica who stayed in Minnesota all summer working with Thibs. He added muscle, worked on his endurance, and like KAT is a threat to score both at the basket and from deep. If you recall how Thibs utilized Nikola Mirotic it’s a similar situation for Bjelica, except as a reserve.

Lowry and the Raptors’ task will be to force Rubio into being a shooter. Rubio remains one of the NBA’s best and craftiest ball distributors, but sadly he still can’t shoot. It’s funny because Rubio has a reputation for being a poor defender, but he’s under rated in that regard.

Arguably some of the most intriguing pairings will come from the bench assignments as Cory Joseph squares off against rookie Kris Dunn and Terrence Ross battles with Shabazz Muhammad.

Game Specifics:

Recent History:

The two teams have played each other 40 times with the Raptors holding a 27 – 13 edge. In their past 10 meetings the Raptors have won all except last season when they lost to the Wolves in Minnesota: 112-117.

Closing:

Toronto survived that hellish road trip with a 3-2 record and returned home to get in practice time, feast on teams missing core players and re-calibrate. During the home stand they’ve vaulted to the top of the offensive rankings and made discernible improvements to their defense. Sure, it would have been nice to beat the Cavaliers, but I’m one of those people who think it does our team good to be reminded every so often of how hard the next step will be.

Patrick Patterson and Kyle Lowry have been on fire during the home stand and I’d place good odds on the squad looking to get back on track with a strong effort to close out this longest ACC stay of the season.

(thought I’d throw this in from Schuhmann as well, for you Patterson fans)

It’s always exciting to see Andrew Wiggins return home and day dream about the possibility of him one day (in a few years??) wearing a Raptors jersey.

And, as much as I want to be proven correct in my preseason assessment, let’s just hope Andrew Wiggins and co. wait to face Detroit prior to turning their season around.

It will be an entertaining match regardless of the score, but look for the Raptors to take this one. Ideally, the Raptors take an early lead and sustain it to get their core some rest prior to heading to Boston to show Jae Crowder precisely why he should be concerned about Toronto!