000
FXUS66 KLOX 022030 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
131 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.
.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...02/1800Z...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE
MID LEVEL DRY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY
03/07Z. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/02Z
AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE
INVERSION WITH A BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER
LITTLE MONDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE DIFFERENCE MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1877 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2825 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24.6 DEGREES C.
KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 007 BETWEEN 03/07-03/10Z AND CIGS 013 BETWEEN
03/10-03/18Z.
KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 010 AFTER 03/11Z
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...02/200 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES