Region NOAA 10953 is currently beta-gamma magnetic class, and may increase in complexity.
The region is bright in H-alpha as well. This region has a chance of producing M-class
events.

NOAA 10953, S10 E41. Beta-gamma region. Position as of April 28, 2007 at 13:30 UT.

And this is in the middle of our solar minimum, indicating our sun still has a few belches to pass out before completely settling down.

One of the best tools we have is the ACE Spacecraft, which monitors the sun 24/7 and provides us with a plethora of real-time data, of the magnetic
field, the solar wind, and inter-galactic cosmic ray counts.

If the hourly-average of the Boyle index exceeds 110, then Kp 4-6 storms
will likely occur within the next three hours

If the hourly average of the Boyle index exceeds 200, then major magnetic
storms will occur within the next three hours

If the hourly average of the Boyle index exceeds 250, major low-latitude
auroras will occur within the next three hours.

A magnetic storm generally occurs about an hour or two after the CME arrives at Earth, which is roughly 26-48 hours *after* a major solar flare. The Boyle Index is derived from real-time ACE spacecraft data, which gives about 45 minutes of warning before it hits the Earth.

NOAA 10953 had several solar flares, shown by the STEREO space-craft. This link shows a solar tsunami after one of the flares in 3 dimensional anaglyph gif movie format as generated by me from the STEREO data:http://www.kiwizone.org/3dsun/20070505c.html