( not wynne but trudeau appears set to name another Ontario liberal mpp to a federal position , maybe testing the waters to see if the next position could go to wynne ? )

Liberals to name ex-Ontario minister Madeleine Meilleur to official languages post

By: Staff The Canadian Press Published on Wed May 10 2017

OTTAWA — The Canadian Press has learned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to name ex-Ontario cabinet minister Madeleine Meilleur as official languages commissioner.

Meilleur announced her retirement from political life last June after 13 years as an Ontario MLA for Ottawa-Vanier.

The longtime Liberal held numerous cabinet posts during her career including francophone affairs, culture, community safety and correctional services as well as attorney general.

Meilleur is well-known for having participated in the fight to save the Montfort Hospital in Ottawa in the late 1990s.

News of her candidacy isn't creating unanimity among the opposition, with the NDP calling it a partisan appointment.

Trudeau did not confirm Meilleur's nomination when asked about it during question period today, saying only the government is consulting with opposition parties before appointing a new commissioner in the coming weeks.

( there was a new forum poll , the pc's are still way ahead . the liberals have actually gained back some support since the last poll . were at 19% in march and back up to 28% in may . although wynne's personal numbers remain very low only 15% approval and 73 % disapproval . whats hard to explain is how she is able to find a way to convince people who disapprove of her to vote for her . although even with the slight improvement the liberals would still lose the election rather badly to the pc's if held today )

Conservatives Continue to Hold Big Lead

May 13, 2017 @ 7:30 AM | Filed under: Ontario, Toronto

Conservatives Continue to Hold Big Lead

Toronto, May 12th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1103 Ontario voters, more than 4-in-10 (41%) say they would support the Progressive Conservatives. More than a quarter (28%) say they would support the Liberals, just under a quarter (23%) say they would support the NDP. (6%) say they support the Green Party, and (3%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 65+ (51%), males (50%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (47%), the most wealthy (48%), living in Eastern (45%) or Southwestern Ontario (45%), the least educated (45%) or with some college/university (48%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 35-44 (36%), females (33%), the least wealthy (40%), living in Toronto (36%), and with a post-graduate degree (38%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (33%), the least wealthy (28%) or earning $60,000-$80,000 (29%).

Conservatives still tracking toward majority

If an election were held today, the Progressive Conservatives would likely secure 72 seats, more than needed for a majority in the 122 seat legislature.

The Liberals and the NDP would each secure 25 seats.

Horwath popular; Wynne and Brown, not so much

Kathleen Wynne’s approval is (15%), and her disapproval (73%) is almost three-quarters. (12%) do not know whether to approve or disapprove of the Premier’s performance.

Patrick Brown’s approval is (19%), and his disapproval is more than a quarter (26%). The majority, (54%), don’t know enough about Patrick Brown to offer an opinion.

Andrew Horwath is the most popular of the three leaders with an approval of more than a third (34%), with disapproval of only a quarter (25%). 4-in-10 (40%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath.

Brown seen as best for the economy

Almost a third (31%), see Patrick Brown as the best potential steward of Ontario’s economy, more than 2-in-10 (21%) see Andrea Horwath as best for the economy, and only (13%) see Kathleen Wynne as best for the economy.

The plurality of respondents (35%) do not know which provincial leader would be the best for Ontario’s economy.

Andrea Horwath seen as most trustworthy

Almost a third (29%) see Andrea Horwath as the most trustworthy of the three provincial leaders, a quarter (25%) see Patrick Brown as the most trustworthy, and just over 1-in-10 (11%) see Kathleen Wynne as the most trustworthy.

Brown best premier, Andrea Horwath just behind

More than a quarter (27%) believe that Patrick Brown would make the best Premier of Ontario, though Andrea Horwath (24%) is statistically tied with him on that measure. Kathleen Wynne is well behind the pair with just over 1-in-10 (13%) saying she would be the best premier. A quarter (24%) say none of the above would make a good premier, with (12%) saying they don’t know.

“The Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a considerable lead in Ontario. While it’s true Ontarians may be somewhat disengaged in provincial politics between elections, you can be sure the other parties would be happy to have the numbers we’re seeing for the Progressive Conservatives right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

( scary a poll from campaign research has the provincial liberals ahead , first poll in months even suggesting such numbers . although when I looked thru it in more detail , a few things stood out as to why we should question there numbers as being accurate . first off they polled way more people from Toronto than anywhere else around 400 .

secondly to get these numbers they , they have among 18-24 year olds as , 61 % lib , 21 % pc , 11 % ndp and 6 % green . those numbers seem a little off and aren't any other age groups where liberals hold a big lead . that age group is also the least likely to vote anyways so it be a hard lead to turn up at the polls .

the only reason I could come up with for the rise among that age group , would be promise to raise the minimum wage . which to a typical 19 year old working part time at a fast food place is maybe going to be an extra $20- $50 on a typical pay cheque , were not even talking about a lot of money , the fact some could be bought off by the most unpopular premier in our history for that . really indicates to me the opposition needs to offer our youth something better . there is no reason for them to be supporting this government )

The Provincial Liberals will not give up without a fight

May 16, 2017

Eli Yufest

TORONTO, MAY 16, 2017 - In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 864 Ontario voters, more than one third will vote for the provincial Liberals if an election were held tomorrow (37%), putting them slightly ahead of the Progressive Conservatives (34%) for the first time this year, with the NDP still trailing (22%).

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the youngest (61%), females (39%) rather than males (35%), in the GTA surrounding Toronto (41%) and among the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 46%). The PC vote is common to the oldest (47%), males (38%) rather than females (30%) and among the very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 46%). The NDP vote is concentrated among the boomers (55 to 64 - 31%), females (25%) rather than males (19%), more so in Toronto (23%) than in the surrounding GTA (15%) and among the least wealthy (less than $20K - 43%).

Horwath’s approval higher than party, opposite applies to Wynne

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of one fifth of voters (19%), and her net favourability score (approve minus disapprove) remains at -50. This is similar to levels recorded last month (April 17, -53). Patrick Brown has the approval of 3 in 10 voters (29%) similar to his party’s level of support . His net score is +5. This represents a slight increase since last month (+1). Andrea Horwath personally outperforms her party with a net score of +23.

Of note, just 4 in 10 Liberals approve of their leader (44%) and a similar proportion disapproves of her (40%). One sixth don’t know her well enough to have an opinion (16%). Patrick Brown has the approval of 6 in 10 PC voters (58%) and just a tenth disapprove (7%), but his unknown factor is very high, even among his own party members (Don’t know - 35%). The vast majority of New Democrats approve of Andrea Horwath (80%) and her unknowns are very low (17%).

“Though Kathleen Wynne’s personal popularity has not improved, support for the Ontario Liberals is increasing. The movement is directly related to how popular recent policy announcements and public debate has been around issues such as pharmacare, basic income, minimum wage increase and a balanced budget. The 25% cut to hydro bills has also likely made an impact.

This is a significant turnaround for the Liberals who have been able to close the gap with the PC Party. It is clear that no one should be counting the Liberals out.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 864 adult Ontarians. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, 19 times out of 20.

wynne
Premier Kathleen Wynne’s latest victims are small business owners, in particular, who create most of the jobs in our economy, on whom she’s imposing a staggering 22.8% hike in the minimum wage seven months from now. (TORONTO SUN/FILES)

Anyone who believes Premier Kathleen Wynne will pack it in before next year’s provincial election hasn’t been paying attention to what she’s doing.

She’s spending our money like a drunken sailor to win that election, although, as several of our readers have pointed out, that’s an insult to drunken sailors because they spend their own money.

Wynne’s latest victims are small business owners, in particular, who create most of the jobs in our economy, on whom she’s imposing a staggering 22.8% hike in the minimum wage seven months from now.

On Jan. 1, 2018, Ontario’s minimum wage will rise from $11.40-an-hour to $14, followed by another $1 hike to $15 on Jan. 1, 2019, a massive 31.6% increase in 19 months.

What Wynne’s doing is fiscally irresponsible.

One of the most important things in keeping any business afloat is the predictability of increased costs, so owners can plan for them.

Minimum wage increases, therefore, should be implemented gradually and predictably, the opposite of what Wynne’s doing.

Her double digit wage hikes for minimum wage workers will also put upward pressure on wages paid to workers earning a few dollars per hour above the minimum wage, putting further strain on already beleaguered small business owners.

There’s no free lunch here.

Faced with large, sudden hikes in the cost of doing business, many small businesses will lay off staff or forgo hiring more staff, assuming they don’t go under.

As the great conservative thinker Thomas Sowell has observed of ideologically-driven politicians like Wynne, who announce dramatic hikes to the minimum wage with great media fanfare:

“There is ... no way the television camera can show which unemployed people would have had jobs if the minimum wage laws had not made them too expensive to hire at their current levels of skill and experience — and thereby cut them off from acquiring the additional skills and experience they need.”

Wynne is also hiking employer costs by giving workers more mandatory vacation time and two new paid sick days.

She will make it easier for workers to organize to keep her union friends on side, while hiring up to 175 more government bureaucrats to implement these changes.

It seems hard to believe that our political institutions are so out of whack with the people they claim to serve. But that attitude which seems widespread in the top levels of the Ontario government is that this money will never have to be repaid. Inflation and time will take care of it, the debt will be merely 'rolled over' and be an income stream to the retired that the state would have to pay anyway.

But more and more, it is impossible to finance new expansions of the welfare state except through debt. And expanding the benefits package of citizenship is what most of our political parties are all about.

Wynne spends in a frantic, but calculated, attempt to cling to power. We understand her position. But the civil servants around her ought to be trying to restrain her. Instead, they seem to be bringing their favourite projects forward.

This looks like the worst outcome possible. It's like Wynne is willing to beach the ship of state in order to stay in power! It will, at a minimum, leave their successors with a mess to spend their turn in office on.

It seems hard to believe that our political institutions are so out of whack with the people they claim to serve. But that attitude which seems widespread in the top levels of the Ontario government is that this money will never have to be repaid. Inflation and time will take care of it, the debt will be merely 'rolled over' and be an income stream to the retired that the state would have to pay anyway.

But more and more, it is impossible to finance new expansions of the welfare state except through debt. And expanding the benefits package of citizenship is what most of our political parties are all about.

Wynne spends in a frantic, but calculated, attempt to cling to power. We understand her position. But the civil servants around her ought to be trying to restrain her. Instead, they seem to be bringing their favourite projects forward.

This looks like the worst outcome possible. It's like Wynne is willing to beach the ship of state in order to stay in power! It will, at a minimum, leave their successors with a mess to spend their turn in office on.

is it starting to look like the worst case scenario , a purely lunatic premier with little personal support throwing away our tax dollars like there is no tomorrow . and bring forward wacky left wing policy were used to seeing from the ndp but figured was never actually going to be implemented by a government , at the rate she's going she'll have just about stolen all there policy before the next election arrives

originally many though the best case scenario was she stays around till the next election and then loses and goes away . but its starting to look like its going to be a very long 2017-18 if she actually stays and there is no guarantee she loses in 2018 , even though she clearly deserves to .

perhaps Sault Ste Marie will give us some insight as to the mood of the public , its somewhat of a swingy city . if the liberals can do well there it clearly be a bad sign , but if they lose perhaps a sign the opposition is making gains around the province .

either way if the liberals lose the by election its going to be hard for wynne to justify sticking around and her caucus might start getting nervous if they lose another riding they had done well in 2014

( personally I think the liberals have entered delusional mood , do they know something I don't know ? about the next election . considering the number of by election loses for wynne since Brown became pc leader , its really shocking they appear to be allowing her to stay even longer . the fact they lost a seat like Sault Ste Marie rather easily indicates there support is in the dumps )

Ontario’s election . . . one year to go and the promises keep coming

The one-year countdown to the Ontario election has begun with all the major party leaders gearing up for the vote on June 7, 2018.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, who, last week, put to rest Tory-fuelled rumours about a snap summer election, hopes soaring hydro bills will be a distant memory by this time next year. (Christopher Katsarov / THE CANADIAN PRESS file photo)

By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Tues., June 6, 2017

Only 365 days of campaigning to go.

The one-year countdown to the Ontario election has begun with all the major party leaders looking ahead to the vote on June 7, 2018.

Premier Kathleen Wynne, whose Liberals have been in power since 2003 and trail the Progressive Conservatives in most polls, will spend the coming months touting pharmacare, higher wages and transit improvements.

“We’ve brought in the first balanced budget in Ontario in almost a decade, and so we are in a position now to make some of the investments that will help people in their lives on a day-to-day basis,” Wynne said Monday.

That includes the $465 million “OHIP+” program, which provides prescription drug coverage for everyone under 25 starting Jan. 1; a minimum wage that jumps from $11.40 an hour to $14 next year and $15 in 2019, and billions in transportation spending ranging from a proposed high-speed rail link between Toronto and Windsor to a boost in TTC services.

Wynne’s government is also pouring billions into reducing electricity rates for homeowners and small businesses by an average of 25 per cent, thereby turning down the temperature on an issue that was burning the Liberals.

The premier, who last week put to rest Tory-fuelled rumours about a snap summer election, hopes soaring hydro bills will be a distant memory by this time next year.

While PC Leader Patrick Brown is striving to keep electricity prices on the front burner, he is being careful not to make any platform commitments so far out from the election.

Brown, whose party brought in about $10 million more than the Liberals last year before a ban on corporate and union donations took effect in January, wants to protect any lead he has in public-opinion polls.

“Voters are tired of promises by a government that it has no intention of keeping. We’re going to give you the truth,” said Brown. He added that was the formula for Ross Romano’s stunning win in Thursday’s Sault Ste. Marie byelection, wresting away a 13-year Liberal stronghold for the first PC victory there since 1981.

“We spoke honestly to voters while the Liberals and NDP made pie-in-the-sky promises.”

But the one pledge Brown has made — a vague assurance that a Tory government would impose some form of carbon pricing to tackle climate change — is causing him problems with his base.

The fledgling Trillium Party, which now has a sitting MPP thanks to Jack MacLaren’s departure from the Tories on May 28, is appealing to other disaffected Conservative voters by opposing any form of carbon taxation.

Social conservatives, who backed Brown’s leadership in 2015 only to have him renounce them last year when he flip-flopped and endorsed Wynne’s updated sex-education curriculum, are pouncing on the carbon tax issue.

His advisers, however, believe his outreach to cultural communities in and around the Greater Toronto Area will more than offset any votes that bleed to the Trillium Party.

A wild card for both Brown and Wynne is NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.

Horwath, who led her party into both the 2011 and 2014 elections, has been pushing universal pharmacare coverage for all Ontarians for 125 drugs compared to the Liberals’ plan to offer it only to those under 25 for 4,400 medications.

Still, the byelection defeat in the Sault was a setback for the NDP, which had put a lot of effort into winning a seat they held until the Liberals won it in 2003.

“The much bigger fight lies ahead,” said Horwath.

“Just a year from now, the people of Sault Ste. Marie — and all Ontarians — will be given a choice not just to change a seat in the Assembly, but to change governments,” she said, taking a swing at the policy-light Tories.

“We’ll give Ontario the choice to elect a government that’s focused on people. A government with the courage of conviction to create the first universal pharmacare program, a drug plan that covers everyone, no matter how old they are or how much money they make.”

Ontarians will have their say on Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government — but not until June 2018.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Toronto Sun, Wynne shot down rumours that she will call a snap election before the fixed date of next year’s provincial election.

“We have no intention of moving the date of the election up,” Wynne said. “The election is June 2018 and that’s when we’ll be going.”

Wynne also stressed that she will lead the party into next year June 7 vote. She downplayed any suggestion that Liberal insiders are, or will, pressure her to step aside.

“I’m not seeing that,” she said of internal criticisms. “I’m just being honest with you. It’s just not something that I’m experiencing. Even if I were, I’ve made a commitment. We’re ... in the last year before an election. My responsibility now is to do my very best to tell the people of Ontario the story of the work we’ve been doing.”

Wynne also tried to cool the simmering feud between her government and Toronto Mayor John Tory, who has been fighting for funding from the province to pay for things like the downtown relief subway line and repairs to the city’s stock of social housing. She expressed disappointment that the relationship has soured to the point where Tory and members of her cabinet have engaged in a war of words.

The conflict heated up in January after Wynne rejected Tory’s plan to toll the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway. The premier had initially publicly and privately supported Tory’s plan, encouraging him to campaign for it in late 2016. But after pushback from members of her cabinet, Wynne killed the plan and replaced it with new gas tax funding for all Ontario municipalities.

Tory and Wynne, who once met regularly — about once a month — to discuss issues, haven’t sat down together since January. The pair attended events together, and spoke on multiple occasions, but the mayor has stressed it’s not “business as usual” with the province.

“I’d hoped we’d be able to get through that,” Wynne said of the toll rejection. “I’m disappointed that there’s been as much friction as there has been. Having said that, John and I are good friends. We will get through this.”

But Wynne said for its part, her government has only responded to Tory’s remarks, even when taking aggressive actions to make a case.

Those tactics included Transport Minister Steven Del Duca crashing a press conference Tory held with PC leader Patrick Brown last month and Liberal MPP Peter Milczyn holding a technical briefing last week to outline the province’s contributions to the city. Both were done to set the record straight, she insisted.

“They really have been in reaction to statements that have been made and some of the rhetoric that has been in the public discussion,” she said. “I think it does matter what the facts are. I think it does matter that we state clearly the support that we’re giving.”

In a wide-ranging interview with the Toronto Sun, Premier Kathleen Wynne covered a number of topics:

-On whether her plan housing plan, including the foreign speculators tax, is working:

“I think we haven’t seen the full impact of the changes that we’ve made. We need to be careful that we monitor what’s happening ... it looks like the (real estate) market is slowing down. I’ve also heard people say that they think maybe the prices will go down. Remember, that was kind of what we were looking for.”

-On why Toronto’s social housing has been allowed to deteriorate, creating a massive repair backlog:

“Part of it is that the relationship between the provincial and municipal government was not a collaborative one (when housing was downloaded to the city). So, we as a society, got off on wrong foot 20 years ago.”

-On the mayor’s criticisms that the province is resting on its laurels and not contributing enough to transit:

“We as a province are putting in a $150 million (for downtown relief line planning). The federal government is putting in $27 million. The city is putting in $27 million. A $150 million is more that what either level of government is putting in. We’re committed to those future projects. We’re the level of government that actually has that long-term plan.”

There are certainly benefits to calling a snap election;
The NDP doesn't have a ton of candidates in place in the GTA which may hinder their ability to dig into Liberal votes in that region as they will have move quickly and wont have as much time to campaign.

They force the PCs to campaign against the 15 dollar minimum wage

They also force the PCs into a situation to run a campaign prior to their policy convention

The flip side is that if the recent by-election showed us anything its that non-Liberal voters are motivated to vote.

Its within Wynne's best interest to hang on as long as possible and hope one of the other parties screws up

It’s to spend tens of billions of dollars bribing us with our own money.

After Liberal incompetence drove up hydro rates to the highest level in Canada, according to Hydro Quebec’s annual survey of major North American cities, Wynne will now borrow up to $93 billion (and at least $21 billion) to temporarily lower rates by $24 billion.

This according to the Legislature’s independent, non-partisan, financial accountability officer.

Wynne is also throwing our money at civil servants and teachers with generous contracts and contract offers, to buy their support and avoid job actions during the election campaign.

She’s boasting about her “fairness” while sticking small businesses with a staggering 31.6% increase in the province’s minimum wage within 19 months, that will force some into bankruptcy, while others lay off staff, cancel expansion plans or raise prices to consumers.

Wynne’s expanding rent controls to appeal to tenants, even though Ontario’s own experience has shown this will shrink the rental housing supply and result in the deterioration of existing housing stock.

Wynne, presiding over a government which is the world’s most indebted sub-sovereign (non-national) borrower, also promises everything from pharmacare for anyone up to 24 years of age, regardless of family income, to free tuition for qualifying university students, subsidized daycare, a guaranteed minimum income experiment, and on and on.

Wynne claims it’s all possible because the Liberals balanced their budget this year, after nine consecutive deficits, and will do so for the next two years.

But that’s a mirage achieved through such measures as Wynne’s one-time sale of 60% of Hydro One to the private sector.

TORONTO - The Ontario Liberals and Premier Kathleen Wynne find themselves as unpopular as ever despite a flurry of feel-good announcements, a Forum Research poll reveals.

Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said the Liberals experienced a surge in popularity in May after announcing a tax on foreign buyers to cool Toronto’s sizzling housing market, but that momentum has fizzled.

The Liberals are the choice of just 23% of decided and leaning voters — down from 28% provincewide — and would secure just nine seats if an election were held now, the pollster projects.

Announcements that the government intends to cut hydro bills by 25% and raise the minimum wage to $15-an-hour by 2019 have not won over voters, he said.

“You don’t want to come across as being desperate, just giving out these election goodies,” Bozinoff said. “The fact that they’ve come out with all these initiatives and not moved their numbers very much — and they’re actually down a little bit — makes one wonder is it that people are starting to just tune them out?”

Forum Research found that 44% of decided and leaning voters polled support the Progressive Conservatives and 24% back the NDP.

Another 7% support the Green Party.

Those findings would translate into an 87-seat majority for PC Leader Patrick Brown and 26 seats for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, making her party the official opposition, Forum Research projects.

The Liberals are struggling in their stronghold of Toronto and the GTA, explaining the nine-seat projection, according to Forum.

“The Tories have begun a little bit of their advertising — they’re starting to introduce Patrick Brown ... and that might also contribute to the Tories going up,” Bozinoff said.

Of the three leaders in the provincial parliament, Horwath is the most popular with four-in-10 voters giving her the thumbs up, compared to 27% who disapprove of her as leader.

Although perennially popular, Horwath watched during the last election as Wynne attracted traditional NDP voters and gained a majority government.

“The Liberals have really eaten the NDP’s lunch,” Bozinoff said, noting many of the policies currently announced by Wynne also sound like they’re from the NDP playbook.

“One has to wonder does the premier need to do something about the approval ratings for these policy announcements to have any impact?” Bozinoff said. “It’s also, I think, just the 15 years of baggage.”

Forum Research polled 1,003 Ontario voters through an interactive voice response telephone survey between June 12-14, and the results are considered accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.

*********

Forum Research asked voters which provincial leader they thought would perform best on a number of important issues, ranging from the economy to infrastructure.

Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown came out tops on most issues, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath had a strong showing in several areas.

Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne failed to emerge as best on any of the topics surveyed.

I think we are past the point of no return on the OLP selecting a new leader;

Even with the same quickie timeline that was used after McGunity resigned you would need four months and why would you want your best and brightest to be fundraising for their personal campaigns when your primary opposition just outfundraised you 3:1 in the last year?

I think we are past the point of no return on the OLP selecting a new leader;

Even with the same quickie timeline that was used after McGunity resigned you would need four months and why would you want your best and brightest to be fundraising for their personal campaigns when your primary opposition just outfundraised you 3:1 in the last year?

there is still options to replace her , she could resign today and the liberal caucus could simply select its own leader from the current caucus and not have a leadership race due to lack of time and other candidates . they'd just have to agree on who the new leader would be .

its clear the ontario liberals are in deep trouble and I don't see any realistic pathway forward with wynne , even if she holds all the liberal seats in the 416 which is unlikely she's going to lose most of the others and be lucky to beat the ndp , 3rd place is a very realistic option as things stand today

Threats against Wynne range from the bizarre to the serious, documents reveal

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne. GINO DONATO / POSTMEDIA

Tyler Dawson
Jun 22, 2017
, Last Updated: 7:24 AM ET

Since 2013, Premier Kathleen Wynne has been threatened with beheading over changes to the province’s sex-ed curriculum, and told she should “catch a bullet” for her policies.

These were among records of 97 “security incidents” involving the premier that Postmedia obtained using Freedom of Information laws. The records include four instances in which charges of uttering threats were laid.

The menacing messages Wynne has received since becoming premier run the gamut from the bizarre to the serious. For example, someone wanted to track down her family. Someone else sent her threatening Biblical quotes. In March 2016, someone mailed a parcel containing a Canadian flag covered in excrement. The documents don’t explain why.

Mailing feces, said Neil LeMay, an Edmonton security consultant who worked for a half-decade with premiers’ security details in Alberta, is actually fairly common – and provincial security details deal with the same sort of issues countrywide.

“We have the same crazies, yes,” LeMay said.

Other recorded incidents include threatening tweets and Facebook messages – homophobic and violent tweets and messages are common on Wynne’s social media feeds – emails and fuming letters sent by regular Canada Post. The records refer to someone telling her she should “catch a bullet for her policies,” with no further details.

Wynne’s predecessor as premier, Dalton McGuinty, was also a target of correspondents’ wrath. In August 2009, his inbox saw someone apply for college enrolment under the name “Dalton Hitler”; it appears this, plus a letter, arrived at McGuinty’s constituency office. A 2011 email threatened to harm McGuinty if the drinking age was raised.

The Ontario Provincial Police provide security details to premiers. Neither Wynne nor the OPP would comment directly on their work, though Wynne’s spokesperson said in an email “The Premier is confident in the good work the OPP does.”

Even before Wynne was sworn in on Feb. 11, 2013 as Ontario’s first female premier and Canada’s first openly gay premier, a handwritten letter arrived to inform her that “homosexual marriage is punishable by death under ‘Allah’ and ‘Sharia Law.’ ” It was considered an “indirect threat”; no charges were laid.

LeMay said female politicians face more threats, in his experience. “You have all the misogynists out there who … make threats just because a premier might be female. For some of them it doesn’t matter whether they agree with her policies or not, it’s just the fact that she’s in a position of power that they feel traditionally belongs to a man.”

Security personnel, LeMay said, group people into two categories: Hunters and howlers. They look to distinguish between those who are just “blowing off steam” and trying to create fear, and those who are real threats.

“The hunters are by far the most dangerous, those are the ones that we’re constantly on the lookout for, those are the ones why we need a security detail because there’s no warning,” said LeMay.

An example of a “howler” was the person furious, in May 2013, that Wynne spoke French at a press conference. Richard Bain, the man who attacked an election-night victory party for former Quebec premier Pauline Marois in 2012, intending to kill sovereignists, was a “hunter.” So was the person who shot four people at a Congressional baseball game in the United States last week.

Since 9/11, LeMay said, security agencies have stepped up their threat assessment work, meaning they’re more aware of potential dangers. David Harris, who directs the intelligence program at the counter-terrorism firm Insignis Strategic Research Inc., said modern-day threats against politicians fit into this wider security and terror context.

“Security people are dealing with an increasingly complex landscape,” Harris said. “There’s an accumulation here in intensity and in numbers.”

The records released to Postmedia are incomplete, as the Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services withheld some information for privacy reasons and because some information was “highly sensitive.” The Toronto Police Service said it laid two charges of criminal harassment against a 48-year-old in January 2015, but the documents from the province don’t make mention of those charges.

Two recent charges that are cited in the documents focus on a threatening tweet in December 2016 and threats against Wynne’s children. It’s not known how many people were charged in these instances, or who they were.

Asked about the threats, Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown said in an email, “No matter your political stripe this type of behaviour is completely unacceptable. No politician should feel unsafe in their job. Political disagreements should be resolved through civil discussion, not through threats or acts of violence.”

The records given to Postmedia don’t cover all of McGuinty’s nine-year tenure as premier, but they detail 179 security incidents in the final six years of his premiership.

The biggest trouble, said LeMay, is convincing politicians who want to be out among the people that they need security. This had been a concern with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose enthusiastic glad-handing has, on occasion, had his security detail on edge. He was, for instance, mobbed by supporters in a Montreal métro the morning after his election victory. Wynne, too, doesn’t shy away from crowds.

“Usually within three weeks to six weeks, they’re (politicians) pounding on your door saying ‘get me security, these people are crazy,’ ” LeMay said.

Many of the incidents documented in the records Postmedia received are marked as vulgar or offensive, and contain no actual threats. Others are marked as mental health concerns and some correspondents are noted as known writers.

June 22, 2017 – Canadians appear increasingly underwhelmed by the performances of their provincial premiers. While some are taking steps back from alarmingly low approval levels, others find themselves sliding into previously unknown territory. The rest find their fortunes largely unchanged over the last quarter. It should be noted that five premiers post higher approval than last quarter in their respective provinces, up from only one in March.

Bouncing Premiers:

Atlantic premiers are among those experiencing the largest increases in approval – Newfoundland and Labrador’s Dwight Ball and New Brunswick’s Brian Gallant are up eight points and six points respectively. In Nova Scotia, Stephen McNeil won a second straight majority government, though a slim one, in the May 30th general election. His rating increase five points. Given that three months ago all three leaders had approval levels in the 20-30 per cent range (Ball still does), this is no doubt welcome news for them.

Also in the plus column – Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne. Canada’s least popular premier, Wynne rebounds slightly this quarter to 15 per cent, ending a precarious slide toward single digit approval. Facing an election about a year from now, Wynne’s government has recently introduced a plan to raise the minimum wage from $11.40 an hour to $14 an hour in 2018 and $15 in 2019. It also launched a basic income pilot project and tabled a budget that rolls back a significant and highly unpopular increase to hydro rates.

You cannot post new topics in this forumYou cannot reply to topics in this forumYou cannot edit your posts in this forumYou cannot delete your posts in this forumYou cannot vote in polls in this forumYou cannot attach files in this forumYou cannot download files in this forum