Fred LeBrun: Imagine a real foe for Cuomo

FRED LEBRUN

Published 6:23 pm, Saturday, March 8, 2014

A New York Governor Asterino is no less improbable than the thought of a Governor Pataki was a couple of decades ago or a Gov. Andrew Cuomo after his bungled first attempt at the job.

Just as the inevitability of a Cuomo re-election is a myth, perpetuated by those whose interests are served if it were so. Sure, Andrew is ''popular,'' whatever that means. Then again, for five years he's had no serious political opponent or opposition to set a contrary agenda.

That might be changing. So the seeming invincibility, those soaring poll numbers, is vaporous and could turn on a news cycle in the face of a real battle, any serious misstep, or the caustic effects of a stubborn recession. As every successful politician like Andrew Cuomo knows deep in his insecure heart, until the votes are counted anything can happen.

Will that "anything" turn out to be conservative Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino?

It's far too early to be assured that Astorino will even prevail as the Republican candidate, let alone that he has the force to pierce Cuomo's armor. Cuomo, quite correctly from his perspective, will do everything he can to roll the servile Republican hierarchy his way and try to persuade the powerful ones to run Twiddle Dee or Twiddle Dum instead, as in Donald Trump or Carl Paladino. Having either one on the ballot is like issuing Cuomo a free pass, as the governor is well aware.

But not if the Republican candidate is Rob Astorino.

His candidacy was anticipated, pre-announced, but he still came out of the gate smoothly with a convincing blend of humor, self-assurance and seriousness of purpose, with an adorable family right out of Central Casting.

There was the appropriate criticism of Cuomo, and Astorino gave a thumbnail agenda of the predictable conservative issues and positions he will hammer.

But there was no bombast, no loss of control. Nothing that would paint him as another self-created caricature like Paladino and Trump, one a loose cannon, the other a hairpiece. Rob Astorino is media savvy, with years of experience in radio, and it shows.

And there were the instant and equally predictable breast-beating protests from a New York City gun control group and various women's rights groups. Interestingly, their language was strangely similar, and featured the word ''extreme'' in describing Astorino's conservatism, as if someone from the second floor of the Capitol had a hand in writing their news releases.

All were expressing variations of the Cuomo mantra previously expressed in the abstract on a radio show, when he described potential opponents. ''Who are they?'' Cuomo famously observed, ''Are they these extreme conservatives, who are right-to-life, pro-assault weapon, anti-gay — is that who they are? Because if that's who they are, and if they are the extreme conservatives, they have no place in the state of New York. Because that's not who New Yorkers are.''

Just how conservative is Rob Astorino? We'll find out over time, driven by the natural forces of an adversarial campaign, the way it should be. We'll see if Astorino can take a punch and give a punch, without losing his cool.

Although here are a few observations on Cuomo's three points. While he may claim right-to-life advocates are ''extreme,'' that does not jibe with every poll I've seen. Even in liberal New York state, the line is quite thin between those who support a woman's right to choose — and I am among them — and those who oppose most abortions. It's only a few percentage points. Unlike marriage equality, which I am delighted to see is gaining national traction and is a runaway prevalent view in New York. Astorino made no mention of gays in his coming out speech that I can recall, and he made no reference to assault weapons, only that the NY SAFE Act was an affront to legal gun owners, which it is.

Regardless of his actual views, a credible candidate's outlook and background can be massaged into the mainstream, given enough money and the right handlers. Public opinion is a commodity to be manipulated, and will be. The trick is getting a credible candidate in the first place. Trying to dolly up Palladino or Trump, by contrast, is tantamount to lipstick abuse.

Which brings us to the three strikes that Donald Trump, through his aide, says Rob Astorino already has against him.

No name recognition. No money. No support from GOP leadership.

In the age of social media campaigns, name recognition will take care of itself. Being from Westchester County means he's already a familiar name to half the state, the neighboring City of New York. Not that he's expected to make huge inroads in Gotham, that bastion of Democratic support. Then again, that's what Westchester County is and Astorino has done remarkably well there. Upstate, he will get a friendly hearing because he fills a political vacuum here in the godless boonies.

So, if in fact Rob Astorino is the real deal, we'll know soon enough, and so will the GOP wise ones and their bankers. All else follows. Either way, this is going to be fun.