Will the Yanks get enough back?

WHILE WE'RE WAITING...
...For the Randy Johnson deal to go forward or take a giant step back, a few words on the players now reportedly included in the deal. As we discussed yesterday in this space, the Yankees are not getting top-flight prospects for Old Man Unit. Ross Ohlendorf, late of Princeton University, is currently a starter. His best pitch is a sinking fastball, a very nice pitch to have, as Chien-Ming Wang has shown. Like Wang, Ohlendorf doesn't walk many, and his strikeout rates are low-not as low as Wang's, but we're talking about a pitcher who was confronting Double-A hitters last year. His K-Rate can be expected to drop. Ohlendorf lacks secondary pitches and there's only room for one Wang in the universe, which is why he stands a good chance of being a reliever by the time you see him in the majors. Ohlendorf, 24, should start the year at Triple-A.

Steven Jackson has a very similar story, except he's going to turn 25 in March. He's right-handed, has stuff that sinks, and you wish he would get a few more strikeouts. Like Ohlendorf, his most likely future is at the back of the rotation or the middle of the bullpen.

Alberto Gonzalez is reputed to have a terrific glove. He makes good contact but he's not going to hit much in the majors-maybe .275/.320/.375 in a good year. He'll turn 24 in April. If he remains with the Yankees his future is in Scranton, or as a Miguel Cairo with less speed and a better glove. If he's the fielder he's cracked up to be, perhaps someone in need of a shortstop will come calling.

The major league component, Luis Vizcaino, throws hard, gets the strikeouts, and, as we discussed yesterday, gets burned on the home run quite frequently. It's not an Arizona park effect, it's not a Milwaukee park effect, it's just who he is. I can foresee a couple of outcomes for Vizcaino, including a repeat of 2003's Juan Acevedo story in which he gets a few save opportunities, blows a couple in dramatic fashion, and is put on the first train out of town. Alternatively, he could also pitch quite well in April. Joe Torre will fall in love with him, using him 26 times in 30 days, and fail to notice as fatigue and overexposure slowly destroy him. By June the Yankees will be wondering what's wrong with him, and by July they'll be trying J.B. Cox in his spot.

TAKING ON WATER
The Yankees swerved around one mine when Mark Loretta signed with Houston, but
they seem to have willingly steered toward another in Doug Mientkiewicz. Mientkiewicz
has apparently been signed pending a physical.

There is very, very little reason for a contending team, or any other, to be
interested in Mientkiewicz as a starting first baseman. Or a platoon first baseman.
He might make a decent reserve. Mientkiewicz is entering his age-33 season,
the point in a player's career when he is in danger of running rapidly downhill.
The problem with Mientkiewicz is that he's already gone downhill. His bat is
a known quantity: he has little power, some plate judgment, and no ability to
hit for average.

The Yankees aren't attracted to his bat, though, they're attracted to his glove.
They think they're signing 2001 Gold Glove winner Mientkiewicz. What they're
getting is 2006 herniated disc Mientkiewicz. Mientkiewicz had surgery to correct
the problem last September, and perhaps his will rediscover some of his old
mobility. That being said, until Mientkiewicz takes the field there will be
no way of knowing if that will be the case  his surgery was season-ending, so
there's no post-surgical scouting report. There's just a very hypothetical notion
that he was once a good defender and will be again.

There are two problems with that notion. First, he might not recover the old
skills (and when in spring training or after, broadcasters celebrate his great
defense, don't trust them  trust your eyes  they're just parroting
what they've been told to expect). Second, offense and defense do not balance
each other out, particularly at first base. There is no way that a player can
save more runs with his glove than he fails to produce with his bat at any position.
There aren't enough tough plays to go around.

The Yankees have had a very good winter  a smart one, getting a decent
return for compromised goods like Gary Sheffield, Jaret Wright (and, soon) Randy
Johnson. The move for Minky, when there were better options available, including
doing nothing, seems like it comes from a different, less canny author. In the
short term, it will cost the Yankees a ton of runs in the early part of the
season. By midseason, the Yankees will be looking at other options. By the trading
deadline, Mientkiewicz will have cost them runs and a top prospect, as the team
will be forced to trade for a run producer, and whichever team agrees to supply
him will be able to leverage the Yankees for a good return in the heat of the
pennant race.

HEALTH ADVISORY
I have just used MS Word's Auto Text feature to create an entry for "Mientkiewicz."
I now have but to type "Mien," and Word completes "Mientkiewicz"
for me. I figure that I'll have to type his name quite often over the next six
or eight months, and this will save me about seven keystrokes per entry. Anything
to stave off carpal tunnel syndrome for another season.

SHIPPING OUT THE UNIT
Reports suggest that the Randy Johnson deal is almost set, with the Big Unit
heading back to Arizona in exchange for two pitchers: the veteran middle reliever
Luis Vizcaíno  a righty reliever who is harder on lefties, gets
lots of strikeouts and allows more than his share of home runs  and one
of a number of pitching prospects. The three young pitchers that have been mentioned
as being on the menu in published reports, Dustin Nippert, Ross Ohlendorf, and
Micah Owings, are all projects. In an ideal world, Nippert and Owings would
become No. 2 or 3 starters, but as they stand now they could also easily go
the other way and end up in the bullpen. Ohlendorf is more of a back of the
rotation/bullpen type thanks to a powerful arm but lack of secondary pitches.

The Unit deal reflects two realities. One is that although the Diamondbacks
have gotten good returns out of their farm system in recent years, they've been
much more successful with position players than pitchers. The other is that
an ancient pitcher coming off of back surgery and a mixed-result year is not
going to fetch Joe DiMaggio in trade.

Lastly, the Unit deal is one that could ultimately produce little for the Yankees
beyond salary relief. That goal may be worth pursuing in and of itself, assuming
it gives the Yankees the flexibility to pursue other, better players with the
money. Still any deal in which the return is entirely pitching stands a strong
chance of yielding nothing in actual players. Position players develop among
more predictable lines. They don't need to develop secondary pitches and their
arms generally don't fall off. I've frequently mentioned catcher Miguel Montero
as an apt target for any Yankees-Diamondbacks trade, both because the team needs
a successor for Jorge Posada and a 2007-ready catching reserve, and because
the inclusion of a position player makes the deal that much more likely to be
meaningful.

Steven Goldman's Pinstriped Blog appears daily on YESNetwork.com. "Forging
Genius," Steve's biography of Casey Stengel, and "Mind Game," the story of the
Red Sox' 2004 championship, and "Baseball Between the Numbers," from
the authors of Baseball Prospectus, are now available at Amazon.com. More Steve
is available on YESNetwork.com in the Pinstriped Bible, and the Baseball Prospectus
Web site. Your questions, comments, suggestions welcomed at oldprofessor@wholesomereading.com.
The opinions stated above are solely those of the author and should not be attributed
to anyone connected in an official capacity with the YES Network.