Weather and Traffic

Fred flares, then fizzles; forecasters flustered

The tropical weather system formerly known as Fred flared up last night and looked like it might be on its way to regeneration. But, as has been the case with so many tropical systems this season, it fizzled again before morning, the surface circulation becoming less well defined.

The culprit is not wind shear this time, but dry air surrounding the system, which is located northeast of the Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest.

Nevertheless, two computer models redevelop Fred into a weak tropical storm as it cruises into the Bahamas this weekend. The majority keep it an open wave, although it may pick up more moisture as it progresses.

Officially, the National Hurricane Center still gives ex-Fred a code yellow on its home page, which means less than a 30 percent chance of redevelopment.

But it’s possible that we could get some rainy weather out of Fred late in the weekend or on Monday.

Weather Underground hurricane expert Jeff Masters said this morning: “Fred’s remains will be near the Bahamas on Sunday, and near Florida on Monday night. It is possible that a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the eastern U.S. early next week will turn Fred’s remains northwards into South Carolina/North Carolina on Monday/Tuesday.”

And Crown Weather meteorologist Rob Lightbown reported in his Wednesday analysis: “There is a chance for some regeneration and restrengthening starting later Thursday and continuing into this weekend even with the dry air. It is not out of the question that Fred could be a 40 to 45 mph tropical storm by Saturday as it tracks toward and into the Bahamas.”

Another tropical wave further to the east also has a chance of development, the NHC said. Wind shear is holding this system down, forecasters added.

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OTHER WORLDLY WEATHER: California Institute of Technology professor Mike Brown has been studying weather on Titan, the large Saturn moon that has an atmosphere, lakes and storms. In an August 27 blog post he announced excitedly: “Fog! Titan! Titan fog!”

Which meant, of course, that he had found fog at the planet’s south pole. It’s not the kind of fog we think of, though. It probably consists of evaporating methane, Brown says.

Brown writes an interesting, chatty and understandable blog and I’d recommend giving it a look. It’s also worth checking out this story on Brown’s discovery at Wired.co.uk. It ran with a very cool picture of Titan – an artist’s interpretation of what the surface looks like.