Albertans give budget thumbs down but back key elements of it, poll finds

Albertans have given the NDP government’s first budget a frosty reception, but several key planks of the spending blueprint — from rewarding job creators with cash to borrowing funds to run government — have received substantial support, a new poll suggests.

The Mainstreet poll found 43 per cent of respondents said they disapprove of the NDP budget, which boosts spending on education and health care, while raising taxes and posting a record $6.1-billion deficit. Another 31 per cent said they approve, with 26 per cent reporting they weren’t sure.

A majority of those polled, 58 per cent, said Alberta is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 22 per cent who said the province is on the right course. Nineteen per cent said they weren’t sure.

David Valentin, spokesman for the polling firm, said poor economic conditions and dire opposition warnings of what an NDP government would bring to Alberta created “really low” expectations for the budget.

Results from Mainstreet Research poll on the provincial budget.

Valentin equated the budget with bitter-tasting cough medicine: sick people may not like it, “but to a certain extent they understand it’s necessary.”

“There is this expectation that some taxes are going to have to be raised no matter what,” he said.

The automated telephone poll conducted Sunday found considerable support for several of the budget’s major features.

Nearly half of respondents, 49 per cent, said they support the government’s plan to borrow $34 billion over the next five years for capital projects, including roads, schools and hospitals. Another 41 per cent rejected the plan, while the remaining 10 per cent said they weren’t sure.

The Opposition Wildrose has argued the NDP’s capital spending plan is unsustainable and will rob future generations who will be saddled with big debt payments.

Still, a majority of those polled — 55 per cent — said the government should not cut back capital spending on roads, schools and hospitals, compared to 29 per cent who said the province should make those cuts. The rest didn’t know.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the budget was the decision to borrow $4 billion over the next two years to pay for programs and services. Alberta hasn’t borrowed cash to fund daily operations since the early 1990s. Forty-six per cent of respondents said they approve of this plan, with 35 per cent panning it. Another 20 per cent said they weren’t sure.

The poll suggests there is considerable public support for the $178-million job-creation program, which rewards employers with up to $5,000 for each new recruit they hire over two years, starting Jan. 1.

Despite criticisms the incentive will not achieve its objective — stimulating jobs growth — 71 per cent of those polled said they support the program, compared with 23 per cent who said they disapprove. Just six per cent weren’t sure.

The Mainstreet poll also revealed public support for hikes in sin taxes. Most respondents, 59 per cent, said they backed a $5 increase on a carton of cigarettes and higher liquor store markups equal to 24 cents per 12-pack of beer. Thirty-one per cent were not happy with the tax hikes, while 10 per cent weren’t sure.

But the NDP does not enjoy similar support for its plans to run four straight deficits totalling $18 billion before returning to a surplus in 2019-2020. The government argues all the red ink is necessary to cope with low energy prices and avoid cutting front-line staff and programs, while critics have charged the NDP will take on too much debt, estimated at $47.4 billion over four years.

Forty per cent of respondents said they disapprove of the government’s deficit-spending plan, compared with 29 per cent who said they support it. Another 31 per cent weren’t sure.

But when asked if the government should balance the books sooner, even if it had to raise taxes or cut services, 52 per cent rejected this idea, with 27 per cent supporting it. The rest didn’t know.

A considerable share of respondents, 37 per cent, said this year’s projected deficit, at $6.1 billion, is too big, with 23 per cent saying it’s the right size, and 18 per cent reporting it’s too small. Another 22 per cent weren’t sure.

“This was a very tough budget for the NDP; it’s obviously not a good-news budget. There’s lots of red ink; there’s a lot of unpopular measures,” Valentin said. “Even so, the NDP are doing better this month than they were the previous one when the federal election was taking place.”

The poll shows the NDP and Wildrose in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent for the governing party, and 33 per cent for the Official Opposition. The Progressive Conservatives remained in third place with 18 per cent, compared with the Liberals at three per cent and Alberta Party at four. Eleven per cent were undecided.

A Mainstreet survey conducted last month found the Wildrose was in first place with 35 per cent of respondents backing the opposition party as the NDP lagged with 30 per cent. Support for the remaining parties was similar, with 19 per cent for the PCs, four per cent for the Alberta Party and four per cent of the Liberals. In the October poll, nine per cent were undecided.

With a look toward the future, a big majority of respondents, 72 per cent, said the government should freeze wages for all public-sector employees as soon as possible, just as the province froze salaries for MLAs and political staff. Only 12 per cent said they disapprove of this plan, with 16 per cent reporting they weren’t sure.

Nearly half of those polled, 48 per cent, said the government should increase taxes to raise revenues and balance its books, compared with 42 per cent who disagreed. Ten per cent didn’t know.

Valentin said big portions of respondents were not sure about several major issues facing the province, such as the budget in general, deficit spending and borrowing cash to pay for operations. He said this leaves room for the government and Opposition to attract support for their respective sides.

“There’s room for the government … and for the Opposition parties to go out and convince Albertans that, yes, this is the right thing to do, or no, this is a really awful thing to do.”

The automated phone poll of 3,199 Albertans was conducted Sunday. The overall results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 1.73 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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It appears increasingly likely that Alberta’s unpopular carbon tax only has a few months to live, so it comes as little solace to see a sudden burst of enthusiasm from the very environmental groups that played a hand in its probable demise.