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Senate GOP botches 2012

Heading into the 2012 cycle, the Senate looked brutal for Democrats. The majority party had 23 seats up for grabs, compared to just 10 for Republicans. The GOP’s incumbents were mostly in safe territory, while Democrats had to defend a disproportionate number of seats in battleground or hostile territory.

Thus, the question last year wasn’t whether Republicans would make gains, but whether Democrats would hold on to their six-seat majority. Nobody is asking that anymore.

Which leaves Indiana, where conservative primary voters exchanged longtime entrenched incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar for ideologue teabagger Richard Mourdock. The Republican has proven as crazy as Todd Akin, stating in a debate last week that a rape pregnancy was a gift from God. Yet another Republican’s bizarre beliefs about rape have made this a genuine Democratic pickup, despite Indiana’s red demographics.

Tally it up and the most likely outcome for Democrats is between losing two seats and gaining four, or between a 51-49 Democratic Senate (including independents) and a 57-43 one. In other words, the Senate GOP really botched 2012.