Friday, December 31, 2010

Top 10 Worst Rotations - 2011 edition

Buster Olney wrote two columns in the past week discussing which team had the strongest rotation, the first of which was his opinion and the second of which was the opinion of talent evaluators from major league teams. In each case, the Phillies were given the Conch by a wide margin. (P.S. For those of you who don't understand the Conch reference, please go immediately to your local library, push through the crowds of homeless people pretending to read the New Yorker for 3 hours so they can escape the cold, and read Lord of the Flies.) Given that this question has been agreed upon and resolved, it falls upon the people of America to answer the difficult, somewhat disturbing question that lies at the other end of the rainbow. Namely, which team has the worst starting rotation in MLB as the Hot Stove season winds down and we enter the 2011 season.

In the grand tradition of all things American, I will now steal Olney's gimmick and create a Top Ten list of the worst rotations in baseball. Yes, this does make doubly unoriginal, but the Hot Stove has just about wrapped up and we have to write about something. If this comes off as a failure, just remember that everone makes one mistake. At the absolute worst I will do a better job on this list then Jim Hendry has assembling a team in Chicago i.e., overpaying Soriano, Dempster, Zambrano, Fukodome, Samardzija and a cast of others to the point that you cannot compete with a 144 million dollar payroll.

This list will be done from 21st to 30th so that I can give those last few teams their proper due.

21) Cleveland Indians- While lacking a dominant #1, the Indians do have a couple of solid options at top in Carmona and Masterson (especially if he can get a little luckier with his BABIP and strand rate) and a young back end of the rotation that is capable of improving as they move closer to their primes.

22) Minnesota Twins- The Twins are the first of three teams to show up on this list that fit the elite #1, dumpster fire 2-5 mold. I love Francisco Liriano as much as the next guy but Slowey, Blackburn, Baker, and Duensing are the reason that the Twins are always a bridesmaid never a bride once the playoffs turn around. Also, any time your #1 has had as much surgical work on their pitching arm as Liriano has, it pushes you down a couple spots in the rankings as you are only one twinge in the elbow away from Armageddon.

23) Seattle Mariners- Superficially the numbers for this rotation are not to bad. However, park factors play an enormous role in making long relievers like Jason Vargas and Doug Fister look good. Outside of was Hernandez, not a single one of these pitchers were ever projected to do anything good and if not for the cavernous dimensions none of them would. The 4.55 road ERA as a team stands as evidence of their mediocrity, especially as Hernandez's stats count as a part of that stat.

24) Arizona Diamondbacks- Not much to say about the Diamondbacks. Kennedy, Hudson, Saunders, and Enright are the textbook definition of mediocrity. If any of these pitchers steps up as an elite option, Arizona can move up off this list.

25) San Diego Padres- The Padres are basically a carbon copy of the Mariners. They rank lower for 3 reasons though. One, we have less evidence to indicate that Latos will consistently pitch as well as he did last year then we do for Hernandez. Two, the park factors for the Padres are even stronger than those for the Mariners per Baseball-Reference.com. Three, the Padres have Wade LeBlanc, a pitcher who somehow succeeds despite not having a single pitch that ranks above 45 on the 20-80 scale.

26) Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles suffer from having the worst 3-5 starters not found on the bottom two teams on the list. Bergesen will go down in history as the player who hurt himself throwing too many pitches for an offseason Orioles commercial. Tillman is such a gopherball specialist that team #24 turned him down in trade preferring a mediocre reliever. Arrieta is just Arrieta a player good enough to make the majors without having the talent necessary to flourish once there. If the Orioles can pick up Pavano, they would move to the top of this list. Without him, they are left hoping that one of their many young hurlers can step up to shore up this rotation.

27) New York Mets- Johan Santana is on the DL and coming back from major surgery, their #2 starter is a 36 year old knuckleballer who has never pitched half as well as he did last year, and they are still starting Oliver Perez and paying him 12 million dollars for the privilege. At least they have a wealth of minor league talent to fill the gaps, right? Oh no, I forgot, they had Omar Minaya as a GM so the pickings are thinner than Glenn Beck's credibility as a media member.

28) Washington Nationals- Strasburg's Tommy John's surgery pushes the Nationals almost all the way to the back of the line. I love Jordan Zimmerman's stuff but we have no proof that he can hold up over an entire season. John Lannan has combined a 4.5 K/9 with a 3.1 BB/9 ratio to create peripheral stats that only his mother could love, and honestly even she doesn't start him on her fantasy team, go ahead and ask her. Livan Hernandez is 36, or 42 in Latino pitcher who somehow misplaces his original birth certificate years and has worn the title of innings eater for so long that we will rename it after him when he retires. Unfortunately, this is the top half of their rotation. Only the abject misery beneath them keeps them from settling to the bottom of the heap.

29) Kansas City Royals- The simple fact that the Royals are not the bottom rotation in this league chills me to my very core. There is not a single starter anywhere on this rotation that qualifies as anything more than a barely serviceable #4 starter. The simple fact that Vin Mazzaro qualifies as a city's great white hope is a stronger argument for contraction than I am comfortable with as a baseball fan. Gil Meche is getting paid 11 million dollars to play long reliever because, as Joe Posnanski has covered on several occasions, Royals management subscribes to the "stop crying Tinkerbell, 150 pitch counts were good enough for Old Hoss Radbourn and they are damn sure good enough for you" school of asset management. Although, I do see Dayton Moore's rationale. Why spend money on your pitching staff when it can be better spent on extra base hit phobic catchers, an outfielder with platoon splits so bad that Jim Abbott could strike him out provided he was willing to pitch left handed, and a center fielder with the most negative WAR amongst eligible players in 2010.

30) Pittsburgh Pirates- The last time a team assembled a rotation this bad they were trying to tank the season so they could move the team to Miami. Unfortunately there is no Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn on this rotation to save them from the cellar of the NL Central. The Pirates acquired Scott Olson this offseason after he was cut loose by the Washington Nationals and Kevin Correia after he was let go by the Padres. Apparently Neal Huntington thinks that signing players not good enough for the 25th and 28th rotations will somehow improve his franchise. I know that one year WAR results do not possess predictive value by themselves but Correia was worth 0.1 WAR last year. The entire 6 man rotation clocked in at 5.4 WAR, highlighted by the combined 1.5 WAR for Correia, Olson, Ross Ohlendorf, and Charlie Morton. Honestly, it was difficult to separate the Royals and Pirates on this list. The main factor that dooms the Pirates to the cellar is that reinforcements are not on the way. The Royals have a wealth of prospects on both sides of the diamond that they can offer in trades to improve their rotation along with the possibility of one or more of the pitchers cracking the major league rotation. The Pirates are who we thought they were(ah Dennis Green the gift that keeps on giving) and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Well the list is done for now. All that remains is to sit back and wait for the negative comments to trickle in from the readers offended that I made a Jim Abbott joke or ranked their team too low on the list. I can't wait to read them.

NOTE: Please see the companion post I wrote to combat Josh's assessment of the Twins rotation.

26 comments:

I cannot stress how off you are about the Twins' rotation. Liriano is a legit number one. He had one elbow surgery four seasons ago, has worked his way back, and has been healthy since then. Baker is a solid number 2, whose 4.49 ERA is largely because of the often horrific outfield defense behind him. Slowey gets hurt a little too often, and gives up a few too many homers, but is similarly hurt by the outfield defense. His peripherals are very strong. Duensing has shown a nice K/BB ratio while keeping 52% of the balls hit off him on the ground. And Blackburn. Well, Blackburn's just not very good. He's not a terrible #5, but if the Twins do end up signing Pavano that's a non-issue.

And I'm not sure how the Astros and maybe the Cubs and Tigers aren't ranked lower.

You're ridiculous including the Twins on this list. First of all, Pavano is going to be back so he is the #2 starter which already makes your #2-5 dumpster fire scenario wrong. Second, that same rotation headed a pitching staff that had a 3.95 team ERA (11th in MLB & 5th in the AL) just last season. They may not be sexy or overpowering pitchers but they make up for a lack of K's by not walking batters (#4 in 2002 was the last time they didn't rank #1 or 2 in MLB in fewest BB's).

I gotta agree with the Common Man on the Twins rotation. It looks like they're working out a deal with Pavano, and they also have some solid young arms in the minors. I wouldn't be suprised to see Kyle Gibson up before the end of the season. You put a rotation that had six - that's right six - starting pitchers to have 10 wins or more last season. I'd say that they have plenty of pitching depth available to them.

Sound like people are on to this, but including the Twins is a mistake. Their starters were 4th in WAR and 9th in FIP in 2010. Its not a great rotation, but they're relatively durable and they don't give free passes. There's a ton of value in that.

As Billy Beane was quoted as saying in Moneyball, "My $hit doesn't work in the playoffs." Ron Gardenhire can say the same thing, but when the Twins absolutely dominated a good hitting White Sox team to the tune of a 13-5 record, and were the first team to clinch their division, I'm not sure they can be ranked quite this low. With Pavano apparently on his way back, the Twins rotation is probably in the mid-teens somewhere.

It's impressive you list Oliver Perez as a Starter, when he pitched, and I use that term loosely, out of the bullpen from May 14th on.

Also I know Mike Pelfrey hasn't lived up the hype that some gave him, but to not list him at all, when you consider the other Mets options to "be thinner than Glenn Beck's credibility", is a complete joke.

It shows that you have less credibility and more bias than Glenn Beck.

"It's hip to bash the Mets rotation and the Mets in general. That said, you may want to see how they ranked last year before you include them here. You're way off the mark."

What exactly is so great about the Mets rotation? Santana ended up having major shoulder surgery, and won't be back until the All-Star break. Who knows how good he'll be once he does come back.

Dickey and Pelfrey both greatly outperformed their xFIPs and are both prime candidates for regression to the mean. Neither pitcher strikes out enough batters, nor limits enough walks to be expected to pitch at their 2010 levels long-term. While Pelfrey typically has an HR/FB rate that falls below the league average rate of 10.5%, it's unreasonable to expect he'll repeat his 5.7% mark from 2010--even at Citi Field.

Niese looks like a decent bet to repeat his performance, but that's about it. Who else do they slot into the rotation? Oliver Perez? Without Santana in the number one slot, that rotation projects very poorly.

Garbage. Ranking the Orioles staff so low betrays a lack of knowledge. You belittle Chris Tillman, who hopes to win the 5th starter's spot this year. As one of the younger pitchers (22 y/o) in triple A last year, he pitched a one hitter and a no hitter. Yet he may not make the O's staff and you think it's one of the worst in baseball? Get a clue. Zack Britton may be the best of our young starters. He's ready but stuck until an opening occurs. Others believe Jake Arrieta may be the best of them all. David Hernandez threw about 95-96 as a starter but was moved to the bullpen to make room for others. His velocity increased to 97-99 in the bullpen. Every team talking to the O's inquired about Hernandez, yet he was moved to the bullpen to make room for more promising guys. Getting the picture yet?

Take this to the bank: the Orioles 2011 rotation will not be a bottom 10 rotation. May be a top 10. If not 2011, most certainly 2012.

After a long dark period, O's fans can rejoice that there is no agreement as to who will be the next O's ace: Matusz, Arrieta, Britton.

The the Orioles fan. Josh and I both live in the Baltimore-DC area, so we both get to watch a lot of O's games. Obviously, we've heard the hype surrounding the Orioles young starters. Matusz looks like the real deal, and Guthrie is a nice pitcher that ultimately is a very good number three or four. Outside of that, their remaining starters are unproven and inconsistent.

Chris Tillman, to date, has shown nothing that should make anyone believe he's a legitimate starter. Still, he's exhibited poor control, big time flyball/homer tendencies, and has an underwhelming whiff rate. He's only 22, so he has more than enough time to right the ship. Still, until he actually performs up to his potential, we have to grade him based on what he's shown so far--which isn't much.

We both love Zach Britton. I think he's going to be an outstanding number two behind Matusz in a year or two. He's not projected to be in the rotation, so I assume that's why Josh left out of his list.

Jake Arrieta has never been projected to be an ace. Most scouts had him pegged for a number three or four. Arrieta was pretty mediocre last year, exhibiting poor control and a high contact rate. Arrieta got a bit lucky with his HR/FB rate, so I expect him to regress to the mean. More home runs, means more runs allowed. Unless he can fix the two issues I named above, he's going to have serious problems being a consistent, effective major league starting pitcher. He's only 24, so he has a little bit of time to mature.

As for Hernandez, Josh and I have a difference of opinion. I think he could be a very solid option out of the bullpen. Still, he has to prove he's worthy of your high praise. A 4.76 BB/9 rate and a 4.48 FIP won't cut it.

You lost me with the Glenn Beck reference. Stick to baseball comments. Oh, that's right they are pretty pathetic. I heard Michigan is looking for a new janitor. You can pretend to be funny with the urinals.