Supporters Greet McCain at the Polls

On election morning, Republican nominee for US president Senator John McCain voted at his polling place blocks from his residence in Pheonix. (Melina Mara/TWP)

By Juliet Eilperin
PHOENIX -- GOP presidential candidate John McCain left his home this morning and cast his vote with the press in tow.

At 9:08 a.m. Mountain time -- after McCain drank his regular Starbucks venti coffee and his wife had her makeup applied -- the Arizona senator left his condo and drove in a motorcade around the corner to Albright United Methodist Church. In a period of five minutes, supporters greeted the McCains with chants of "Senator McCain!" and "John McCain!" as well as "Thank you, Senator! We love you!"

Photographers following the candidate looked through the window as he sat down at a table, filled out what appeared to be a form, licked an envelope and then walked over to hand it to poll workers.

As he left, McCain's right lapel boasted a sticker reading, "I voted today."

Pollsters ponder racial bias among U.S. voters - and in their own polls
By Kate Zernike Published: October 12, 2008
International Herald Tribune

Three weeks to Election Day, and polls project a victory, possibly a big one, for Barack Obama.

Yet everywhere, anxious Democrats wring their hands. They have seen this Lucy-and-the-football routine before, and they are just waiting for their ball to be snatched away, the foiled Charlie Browns again. Remember how the exit polls in 2004 predicted President John Kerry?

The anxiety is more acute this year, because Obama is the first African-American major-party presidential nominee. And even pollsters say they cannot be sure how accurately polls capture people's feelings about race, or how forthcoming Americans are in talking about a black candidate.

In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey - widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed - that concluded racial bias would cost Obama six percentage points in the final outcome. He is, of course, about six points ahead in current polls. See? He's going to lose.

If he does, it would not be the first time that polls have overstated support for an African-American candidate. Since 1982, people have talked about the Bradley effect, where even last-minute polls predict a wide margin of victory, yet the black candidate goes on to lose, or win in a squeaker. (In the case that lent the phenomenon its name, Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied to pollsters about their support for an African-American.)

Kohut conducted a study in 1997 looking at differences between people who readily agreed to be polled and those who agreed only after one or more call-backs. Reluctant participants were significantly more likely to have negative attitudes toward blacks - 15 percent said they had a "very favorable" attitude toward them, as opposed to 24 percent of the ready respondents. "The kinds of people suspicious of surveys are also more intolerant," Kohut said.