Siena: Brooks Halves Slaughter’s 10 Point Lead

Siena’s second poll of the NY-25 race – a clash of local political titans Rep. Louise Slaughter and Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks – reveals the race has tightened considerably.

Over the past three weeks, the Republican county executive has eroded the veteran Democratic congresswoman’s 10 point lead, cutting it neatly in half with just over three weeks remaining in the campaign.

Slaughter is supported by 49 percent of likely voters (down from 52 percent in a Sept. 27 Siena poll) compared to 44 percent for Brooks (up from 42 percent).

Siena pollster Steve Greenberg noted Slaughter has just barely fallen below the magic 50 percent mark considered the threshold of vulnerability for an incumbent.

Brooks has made up some ground in Rochester, Greenberg said, although Slaughter continues to have a huge lead in the city.

The county executive also slightly increased her lead in the rest of the district outside Rochester.

Slaughter lost a little ground with both Democrats and Republicans. Previously, she had nearly twice as much support among Republicans as Brooks had with Democrats.

Now, both candidates are doing virtually the same in holding on to voters of their own party, Greenberg said.

One warning sign for Brooks: She has been losing ground with independent voters, seeing what was an 11 point lead dwindle to just three points.

Slaughter continues to lead the race overall – largely because Democrats have a nine-point enrollment advantage in the district.

The race for the White House remains virtually unchanged since the last Siena poll, as President Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-39.