Mobile economy will take flight, in time (analysis)

A model of the Airbus A320neo is seen prior to the July 2012 announcement that Airbus will construct it's first U.S.production plant at Mobile's Brookley Aeroplex. Economic growth is sure to follow, but it certainly won't happen overnight. (Mike Kittrell/mkittrell@al.com)
Mike Kittrell Kittrell, Mike/Starling, Bill

MOBILE, Alabama -- How exactly do we reconcile optimism about Mobile's economic future with the real-time facts of its present?

It's accomplished by starting a conversation that delves far beneath the factual surface and reveals the hard work being done to not just transform southwest Alabama's economy but transcend some of the bad habits that have thwarted such efforts in the past.

This analysis is in stark contrast to one issued the very same day by the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia that forecasts Alabama's economy to grow at the second-fastest pace in the nation in 2013.

The Mobile Market Outlook report was met with outright indignation.

What do they mean we need to adopt a more regional approach to maximize aerospace opportunities? How in the world can they say our workforce is ill-equipped to support an increasingly technological industrial base? Where do they get off making any of these assumptions from a desk in Pittsburgh?

The truth, however, is Alabama's coastal communities fight hard for what they want, and it's hard to not take personal offense when facts and figures contradict more subtle results such as career fairs attracting more than 500 applicants eager to participate in that labor force, or the launch of a statewide initiative uniting the education and business communities by crafting skill-specific training programs to better prepare students to enter the workforce.

Mobile – like almost every other city in the nation – is struggling to recover fully from a national recession, and any number of factors could undermine the speed of that recovery before it's complete.

It's also worth noting that this region has become accustomed to having the economic rug yanked out from underfoot. Multibillion dollar military tanker bids have vanished right before our eyes. Oil has threatened our pristine beaches with the same slickness as the corporate lawyers arguing the semantics of what it means to be "made whole." And when we get a little too comfortable, Mother Nature reminds us all about the steep price she can charge at will for the privilege of living in paradise.

The clichéd truth is that this is a marathon and not a sprint, and the Philly Fed's prediction that growth in Alabama's economy will outpace that of 48 other states this year is based, in large part, on the maturation of a well-planned, masterfully executed, next-generation automotive cluster to our north two decades in the making.

The economic world chuckled when a tiny little town called Vance, Ala., first landed what is now Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, but earlier this month Alabama's now three automakers released record-shattering production figures of a combined 880,000 vehicles in 2012, a 17 percent increase compared with 2011.

With Airbus en route, Mobile's shipbuilding and other maritime trades actively hiring and all signs pointing toward at least a moderate recovery in both the housing and construction markets, the reality is the data will catch up to the dream.

It's going to be exciting to revisit this topic in 20 years and see how far we've come.