June 25, 2017

Six Kalibr missiles were reportedly fired at Islamic State in Syria on June 23, 2017 from 2 Russian warships and a submarine. This latest spectacular Russian salvo allegedly hit IScommand posts and large weapons caches in the Syrian eastern province of Hama. Russian cruise missile launches are viewed by the US as threatening the US' rightful dominance over the Middle East. Put another way the missiles landed too close to the US' regional oil producing client states - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, even Iraq, as well as US bases.

June 23, 2017

ALEX LOCKIE for Business Insider Australia has written
an excellent article, of June 23, 2017 concerning feelings of North Korea's Kim Jong Un that he is under threat of assassination by foreigners. Article begins:

“The US and South Korea reportedly have a special
ops team 'to take out Kim Jong Un"

"Even though he’s the
supreme leader of his country, Kim
Jong Un has reportedly been living like a hunted man out of fear that the
US and South Korea are collaborating on a special forces team to take him out
in case of a contingency.

South Korean
intelligence services told lawmakers recently that the moves of US and South
Korean forces make Kim “extremely nervous,” according to the Korea Herald.
Apparently, Kim has been riding in his subordinates’ cars and making fewer
public appearances.

In March, South Korean media reported that
the US Navy’s SEAL Team 6, the same group that pulled off the 2011 raid that
killed Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan had arrived in South Korea for a
joint-training exercise.

Given Kim would have 10s to 100s of close-in bodyguards,
deep bunkers in mountains and protected by (the outer concentric circle of) the
whole North Korean military - it is unlikely that the US would attempt to insert a
few gun toting CIA/Special Forces/SEALS to take Kim out.

More likely is the use of a huge bunker busting, GPS programmed bomb [1] (see photo and diagram below) or missiles to hit Kim in a fixed or moving position.

Happy-go-Lucky Kim III is the only man allowed to be fat in skinny, starving North Korea. He is wanted in a Bad Way by lots
of people by lots of means. (Photo courtesy Korean Central News Agency via Business Insider Australia)

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[1] Look at the size of "Kim's cure" the GBU-57 (above) and the means of hitting Kim in one of his deep bunkers (diagram below). The GBU-57 is a Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) “designed to be delivered by the B-2 bomber” and weighs in at just under 14,000 kg. (Photo and Diagram courtesy The Aviationist)

June 21, 2017

COMMENTThe US, Israel, Gulf States and Saudi Arabia are very nervous about Iran firing Zulfiqar ballistic missiles (see photo below) at Islamic State targets in Syria. The Zulfiqars have the range, from Iran, to hit some Saudi cities and oil installations and US bases in the region.ARTICLES1. Interesting article from Tyler Rogoway, The Drive/THE WARZONE, June 20, 2017: [The 19th June 2017s] barrage of [Iranian] ballistic missileson
Islamic State affiliated targets in Deir ez-Zor Syria has reverberated
throughout the region and the world.

As we stated shortly after the strike,
Tehran's unprecedented use of ballistic missiles was based on multiple factors,
and sending a message to the US, Arab gulf states and Israel was clearly one of
them. Now Iran is saying more ballistic strikes could come at any time.

Iran
used some of its most modern missiles in the operation. Six solid-fuel Zulfiqar
short-range ballistic missiles were fired at Syria. Accounts vary, but some
sources state the attack failed in a tactical sense, with only one missile
hitting its intended target. Iran claims 360 militants died in the strikes,
whileIsraeli sourcessay
three of the missiles didn't even make it to Syria at all...."

2. Behnam Ben Taleblu, for The Military Edge, September 2016, provided some details on the Zulfiqar: "Iran’s newest Zulfiqar is a solid-fueled short range ballistic
missile (SRBM) that reportedly can reach 700 to 750 kilometers and is claimed
to be accurate within 5 to 10 meters.

The Zulfiqar is Iran’s latest variant of
the Fateh-110 missile series — a family of single-stage solid-fueled SRBMs that
Tehran has refined since the 1990s. First successfully flight-tested in 2002,
the Iranians have upgraded the Fateh-110 platform at least half a dozen times
since. All of them were built by Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO)
– an affiliate of Iran’s Ministry of Defense..."

(Probably) A Zulfiqar short range ballistic missile (SRBM) about to be launched from its transporter trailor. (Photo courtesy BBC Persian news).

June 19, 2017

Australia's official Navy website writes (scroll 2/7s way down here ) in remembrance of a usually forgotten "friendly" fire tragedy just over 49 years ago:

"On 17 June 1968,[HMAS]
Hobartwas
in the vicinity of Tiger Island [map below] when she detected an aircraft approaching
her from the vicinity of Cap Lay. Although the aircraft was evaluated as
friendly it continued to close and fired a missile that struckHobartamidships on her starboard side. The warhead
passed through the main deck, seriously damaging several compartments, while
the body of the missile passed through the outer skin of the after funnel
before ending up in the forward funnel. In its passage the missile killedOrdinary
Seaman R.J. Butterworth[1] [only one year in the navy] and
wounded Able Seaman J.R. Parker and Ordinary Seaman R.F. Davidson.

AsHobart's
crew raced to action stations a second and third missile hit the ship. The
second missile entered the transom without detonating, destroying the gunner's
store before breaking up in the engineer's workshop and penetrating the after
seaman's mess.

The third missile hit the ship in the same area as the first,
passing through one of the ship's fan spaces, the missile director equipment
room and Tartar checkout room. Chief Electrician R.H. Hunt[2]was killed in this attack and several
sailors injured.

...En route [Hobart's crew] begain clearing away debris, finding and collecting pieces of the missiles
which were later identified as being of US origin. It transpired thatHobartwas one of several ships mistakenly attacked
by US 7th Air Force jets on the nights of 16-17 June..."

The
bodies of a number of US sailors were found, once water was pumped out (at Yokosuka) from the 2 crushed and flooded compartments of USS Fitzgerald.

Japanese authorities were
looking into the possibility of "endangerment of traffic caused by
professional negligence", Japanese media reported, but it was not clear
whether that might apply to either or both of the vessels.

It is most likely USS Fitzgerald's "Captain" Commander Bryce Benson, in hospital, is already being questioned along with relevant officers and crew who were on Fitzgerald's bridge.

[1] AIS is the automatic
identification system (part reliant on satellites) used for collision avoidance on
ships. Very likely AIS was on both ships - but was it turned off on Fitzgerald for "hide Fitzgerald" exercise conditions?

June 16, 2017

The bottom of this site http://www.fairbanksmorse.com/marine/
indeed points to Fairbanks -Morse
diesels being used for backup on Ohio, Seawolf and Los Angeles class nuclear subs. MAN
diesels also on the F-M site here.

Virginia class diesels (bottom of another
site) were described in 2004 as Caterpillar 3512B V-12 Twin-turbo
charged engines.

The characteristics of backup diesels for nuclear subs
might be different than for continuous long range use on conventional subs
(SSKs). I'd be happier if F-M was still supplying diesels to SSKs rather
leaving this market years ago.

Why did F-M leave that market? Was it part of the US
avoid building diesel-electric propulsion subs at all costs policy?

I think regular tried and tested submarine Kawasaki,
MAN or MTU diesels would be better for Shortfin rather than again specially
developing "new orphan" engines like the Garden Island-Hedemoras
(GI-H).

Yes Australia's inexperience (and trust in Kockums in the 1980s-90s) was
readily apparent. ASC and the RAN no longer had Vickers or the UK RN (Parents of the Oberons) to protect Australia in the Collins project. GI-H's were one submarine class ORPHAN diesels which would have been good for the
cold, short distance, Baltic, but remain a constant problem for Australia's warm wide ocean
requirements. Tried, tested common-in-submarine-use MANs or MTUs should have
been selected for the Collins instead.

- room for engines to use rubber/elastic rafts to minimise
through hull vibrations/noise.

3. A third requirement are diesels powerful and robust
enough to quickly generate high pressures within the hull:

- to exhaust/expel gas in the seawater, and

- to expel gas out of the snorkel into the surface air.

4. Other diesel requirements are:

- the capability to match/balance
intake and exhaust pressures (in a snorkel), and

- an efficient safety device to stop the diesel
for stops, reversals or other high stress needs.

For example when snorting if either
the tube drawing in air or the exhaust tube were blocked valves must be
sensitive enough to stop before damage to the submarine or to the crew (avoiding atmosphere vacuum within the hull :( is done

Anonymous’ Comment

Submarine diesels are quite different from ship diesels. Sub
diesels require superior material as well as very robust design capabilities. In
submarine/shipyards submarine diesels need to be capable of easy dismantling:

- in order for some engine parts to be passed through the submarine’s small hull
hatches, and

Unlike trucks and small ship diesels, a large ship [or
submarine] diesel takes time until the whole large diesel has evenly warmed up
across all parts. Without a warm up period large temperature differences can
remain long enough to break some parts. Distribution of warm air (from dockside starter motors) can warm many submarine parts successfully.

Coolant and oil should also be circulated by dockside or
internal pumps. Dockside motors might also need to "turn" the engine
to warm the cylinders. The larger the engine the longer the warm-up required,
eg. 30 minutes for large ship diesels.

All turbochargers are lubricated via the engine's
pressurized oil system, meaning that engine oil is constantly circulated
through passages entering and exiting the bearing cartridge. While a vehicle is
driving ([or submarine moving] and the turbocharger is functioning, it becomes hot - the temperature
of the turbocharger is relative to load. When a vehicle has been driven and is
abruptly shut off (and the oil flow to the turbocharger ceases), engine oil
contained in the turbocharger absorbs heat from its surroundings. If the
temperature of the turbocharger prior to shut down is great enough, the oil
risks burning and will have a tendency to create deposits in and around the
turbo bearings in addition to contaminating the engine oil supply [not good if
you are crewing a submarine on an (almost always) isolated mission].

June 14, 2017

The following are mainly from comments
made May 26 to June 6, 2017 on hull research, new diesels, and Lithium-ion
Batteries (LIBs):

Research on Alfa STYLE hull shape

The Japanese Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) ATLA research organisation is studying a significantly different prototype submarine shape (see last line in this MoD (in Japanese) document). The shape is similar to the old Soviet Alfa-class which had a streamlined fin/sail. Shape differs in having modern X-plane rudders. It was exhibited at the ATLA
Technical Symposium 2016.

It could be the Japanese are talking to TKMS which also features a highly streamlined fin/sail in the Type 212A (photo of model below). These fin/sail styles can provide improved hydrodynamic motion efficiency, noise reduction against passive sonar and the rounded shape may be more stealthy against active sonar.

New Diesels for the
First of a New, Post Soryu, Submarine Class

29SS will be the first submarine of a new Japanese class (see
this Table). It will probably be named after a famous ship in Japanese
naval history. 29SS will charge Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) only and will likely be contructed at the MHI shipyard, Kobe with launch in 2023. It will be equipped with 2 advanced, more
powerful, diesel engines and a high pressure air tank [for what?]. The diesel engines' possible modifications to increase power may be increased bore,
stroke and/or charging pressure, and reduction in vibration/noise, etc.

The current Soryu diesel is KAWASAKI-12V/25/25SB
It is a V12, with bore 250mm, stroke 250mm, volume 147L, piston speed 10m/s,
power 2280 kilowatts/minute [?] kWm,
power/volume 15.4kW/L. This is considered adequate for the Lead-acid Battery
(LAB) Soryu Mark 1.

The future diesels need to be more powerful to take advantage of the
quick battery charging ability of LIBs. More powerful diesels might include:

On February 17, 2017 Submarine Matters reported
on the two types of LIB (“NCA” and “LTO”) that Japan is considering for its new
submarines. It may be likely that Japan prefers NCA (Lithium Nickel Cobalt
Aluminium Oxide (LiNiCoAlO2)) produced by GS Yuasa (GSY). GSY’s cells have
coatings that reduce the fire risk.

I've just emailed Submarine Matters June 2017 Donor Report: Kockums’ Submarine Vertical Launch Plugout to you, as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

Leadin to report:

"It was interesting
to see photos...of SAAB Kockums’ display of a 3 x vertical
multi-purpose lock (VMPL) plug at IMDEX Asia 2017. The plug, perhaps 10m long
and weighing 500 tonnes, may be an option on a future A26 derivative. Each lock can carry 6 Tomahawk missiles for a
total of 18 Tomahawks (or perhaps other land attack missiles).

In 2015
Sweden entertained the idea of mounting a large
horizontal multi-purpose lock in the torpedo room of future A26s. But this may
have created little customer interest as such a lock may have been at the
expense of 3 or 4 conventional torpedo tubes..."

June 6, 2017

China’s Military-PLA Intelligenceand also Civilian Intelligence (Ministry of State Security (MSS)) are doing an excellent job in Australia. This includes human intelligence (HUMINT) Case Officers who direct, or at least debrief, some in categories (below) who are living in Australia or travelling through. Case Officers are often Chinese "diplomats" or defence attaches or other authority figures, like Chinese professors.

Case Officers may direct and/or debrief ethnic Chinese:

- students (especially post-graduate level working in "dual-use" high tech areas)- academics, scientists (PhD on up) especially in high tech or reporting on politics.- engineers, business people (high-tech, military, economic and political reporting)- journalists (usually official Chinese news agencies) also useful for influence spreading- pro-China Australian citizens (including some (usually ALP) politicians)China based Chinese officials may do the directing/debriefing of the Australia based categories by phone, email, snail-mail, OR wait till these categories living in Australia return to or vist China (including Australian politicians' on China financed study tours).Intelligence is often collected in fragments (ie. bit by bit collection, all sources and methods) from little agents. This is in contrast to the popular image of very high-up Russia style moles or agents (eg. the Cambridge Five). Another Chinese intelligence activity is nurturing pro-Beijing political and/or economic influence via "Agents of Influence". More specifically China may influence Australian business deals or Australian politics. In this regard ALP politicians come up way too often - through fake comradely behavior often accompanied with a bit, but not too much, cash (recent cash for comments concern?)This is not to say that other major countries don't operate or spread economic and political influence in Australia through intelligence ways.Like many other authoritarian intelligence agencies active in Australia Chinese agencies probably spend most of their time spying on and pressuring their own nationals:- security monitoring by Chinese diplomats (helped by informants) of any/all of the Chinese groups while in Australia. This is monitoring particulary of Chinese deemed to be involved in: : overseas activities for Uyghur/Uighur/East Turkestan/Xinjiang Independence causes. Some in China are involved in Islamic terrorism. See February 2017 report of Uighur militant
jihadists from China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region fighting for various causes
in Syria = seeThe Diplomat's“How
Serious Is the Islamic State Threat to China?” of March 14, 2017

On 24 April 2008Chinese "diplomats" organised and payed costs of at least 10,000 pro-Beijing supporters (Chinese students) (see photo above). The students travelled 100's of kms, from Sydney and Melbourne to Canberra (Australia's capital). What followed was a 2 hour "spontaneous" loyalty demonstration for the 2008 Beijing Olympics Torch Relay, in Canberra's Parliamentary Triangle. Pro-Tibet democracy protesters were crowded out and intimidated as were Australian police. The occasion was the pro-Beijing Olympics (2008) Torch Relay. Usually Australian Federal Government controlled the Parliamentary Federal Triangle.Just imagine if the Australian Embassy tried to organise a similar "spontaneous" protest in Beijing? Would a mob burn down the Australian Embassy?

A KEY SYDNEY MORNING HERALD ARTICLE

A major Sydney
Morning Herald article of 7 May 2009, concerned how Chinese interests seemed to influence an Australian Defence Minister. Defence 'rejected' minister spy link concerns. The US, fearing the security of its own shared secrets with Australia, was most probably very unhappy how Rudd's Labor Government initially handled the matter.

Mr Xiangmo Huang
with Vice-Chancellor of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Professor Ross Milbourne in December 2013. Mr Xiangmo Huang, from China donated the $1.8 million in order to establish the "independent" Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI). See more below in red.

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Survey Reports Lack of Australian Public Interest in Japan's Disputes or in Japan's Point of View.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) on January 6, 2015 reported results of a Survey that indicates most Australians would reject siding with Japan and the US against China should a conflict in the East China Sea arise. The ANZUS Treaty does not bind Australia to Japan. These perceptions and facts underline Japan's need to lock in a defence relationship with Australia - including Japan leveraging and Soryu submarine deal. See references to the Soryu below.

The Survey indicated that of "more than" 1,000 Australians [Surveyed] 71% would
prefer to remain neutral should a conflict arise. Only
15 per cent of respondents said they supported backing a Japan-US alliance. 4% said Australia should back China and 9% were unsure.From a slightly different angle the survey found should the US President call and ask the Australian Prime Minister to join in supporting Japan, 68% said Australia should
declare itself neutral and not make a military contribution. Only 14% of those surveyed said Australian troops should join
allies US and Japan in war while 17% were unsure.

June 1, 2017

Over the years Submarine Matters has written several articles (including this February 5, 2014 article) about Taiwan's dreams of foreign assistance to build or import new submarines for the Taiwanese Navy. Years ago the Bush (Jnr) Administration promised Taiwan some new conventional subs - problem is (and was) the US no longer builds conventional subs. Non-US countries do not have the US' political power to defy China by supplying Taiwan with submarines. For more than 20 years China has used political and economic pressure on foreign companies and countries to prevent them designing and/or building new submarines for Taiwan. China is likely to be displeased with the Netherlands' company below unless China sees some offsetting benefit.In a move involving considerable Dutch courage [1] the Netherlands' RH Marine company is to carry out some much needed electronics upgrades [probably including the combat system] to Taiwan's 2 Dutch built Chien Lung (aka Hai-Lung) class submarines.Taiwan's Chinese-language Liberty Times commented ""This will also be helpful for the program to build home-grown submarines,” In the same article the Taiwanese Navy aimed to reduce Chinese concerns. The Navy "stressed that the Dutch company’s participation in the upgrade program “is unrelated to [Taiwan's domestic submarine design and construction] program.”

On the RH Marine website. Perhaps this display could play a role in a submarine's combat system?

Submarine Matters

Director, Submarine Matters International. I analyse international trends, technical and political - mainly on submarines, sometimes on surface ships, aircraft and missiles. This website started in 2007. I have a Masters Degree (International Relations) High Distinction average. The best way to navigate this site is to put a keyword in the search box top left corner.