Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

Bullpens of The NL Central

It's time to check out the bullpens the newly leaner National League central. Without the Astros in the division, there are still a few bullpens that will feature turmoil all year, at least from where this correspondent is sitting. But! Turmoil always means opportunity, and opportunity comes before production. It's one of the foundational fantasy laws.

If you own Marmol, be prepared for trade rumors and/or tums all year long. Marmol has a big contract and his team is rebuilding. Also, his control, never good, has deteriorated to the point of ridiculousness. To add injury to this insult, researcher Jeff Zimmerman recently found that pitchers with good control usually stay healthy longer. We've already seen the beginning of the decline with the thirty-year old Cub reliever, as his velocity tanked in 2011 and his health got iffy last season.

If Marmol gets traded to the Detroit Tigers before the season -- ironically, because their in-house rookie (Bruce Rondon) may not get the job because of his control problems -- then it's probably Japanese veteran Kyuji Fujikawa taking over. But it's no lock that Fujikawa will find success, even if the Cubs paid a pretty penny for him. Not all pitchers make the jump from Japan well, and Fujikawa's velocity was already trending too close to 90 mph to feel comfortable touting him as a great sleeper. Then again, he has a good splitter and great control, and looks like the guy in a bad pen behind Marmol.

It'll take some time for this sleeper to rise, considering he's recovering from Tommy John surgery and the team may want to give him another shot at starting before moving him to the bullpen for good, but Vizcaino has legit closer's stuff, and he may stay healthier pitching in short stints. Call him a dynasty league sleeper if he's on your wire or available deep in your deep league draft.

Broxton's huge fastball and swinging strikes did not return with his health in 2012, but the Reds gave him a closer's contract anyway. Part of that might have rested upon the excellence of his new cutter, which he used to great efficacy late in the season. He certainly showed the best control of his career, and one of the best ground-ball rates of his career, and those are both things associated with cutter usage. The 28-year-old seems like a shaky bet to finish the year closing if he has another year with a strikeout rate under eight, especially if his old wildness returns. This pen might be shook at some point.

Dusty Baker told me at the winter meetings that "If Sean Marshall could close, he would have closed in Chicago," so maybe Marshall isn't a good bet to replace Broxton. But he could get saves here and there and is probably the set-up man, so the die is not completely cast yet. If the Aroldis Chapman to the rotation experiment doesn't work, slide Broxton here and make Chapman the favorite.

Hoover is a relative unknown, but the former Brave has a 93-mph fastball and a platoon-friendly curveball, and got great whiffs last season. At 25, he's young enough to turn more of those whiffs into strikeouts, and improve the walk rate to fall more in line with his minor league rates. If he does so, watch out. He could be an elite reliever as soon as this season.

The mustachioed Milwaukee closer had a bad season in 2012. He still got elite-level strikeouts and above-average whiffs and grounders, but his old nemesis -- control -- came back to haunt him. All those walks, and a few too many homers given his ground-ball rate, turned into a four-plus ERA and a reduced role at one point. There were two benefits to his season, however. For one, we now know who's next in line if he goes down again. And for two, he recovered the role and showed he had some leash. Expect the strikeouts, watch the walks, and hope for fewer home runs. Even if he doesn't push the walk rate back to better than league average, he should be a decent closer if the ball stops leaving the yard so much.

Axford's story -- veteran minor leaguer with bad control and a big fastball harnesses his stuff just enough to become a force at the back end of a major league bullpen -- is replicated one spot behind him on the bullpen depth chart. Thirty-year-old Henderson even did him one better when it came to strikeouts. But he's got the same problems as Axford, and it's really just a roulette roll as to which of them shows the better control next season. Even if it's Henderson, he's no lock to take the role. The first rule of speculating for saves is: "Who's the closer now?"

Now we're dealing with a 24-year-old that doesn't have the same history of control problems. The problem here is that he might end up as a starter. There are plenty who feel like his

It's time to check out the bullpens the newly leaner National League central. Without the Astros in the division, there are still a few bullpens that will feature turmoil all year, at least from where this correspondent is sitting. But! Turmoil always means opportunity, and opportunity comes before production. It's one of the foundational fantasy laws.

If you own Marmol, be prepared for trade rumors and/or tums all year long. Marmol has a big contract and his team is rebuilding. Also, his control, never good, has deteriorated to the point of ridiculousness. To add injury to this insult, researcher Jeff Zimmerman recently found that pitchers with good control usually stay healthy longer. We've already seen the beginning of the decline with the thirty-year old Cub reliever, as his velocity tanked in 2011 and his health got iffy last season.

If Marmol gets traded to the Detroit Tigers before the season -- ironically, because their in-house rookie (Bruce Rondon) may not get the job because of his control problems -- then it's probably Japanese veteran Kyuji Fujikawa taking over. But it's no lock that Fujikawa will find success, even if the Cubs paid a pretty penny for him. Not all pitchers make the jump from Japan well, and Fujikawa's velocity was already trending too close to 90 mph to feel comfortable touting him as a great sleeper. Then again, he has a good splitter and great control, and looks like the guy in a bad pen behind Marmol.

It'll take some time for this sleeper to rise, considering he's recovering from Tommy John surgery and the team may want to give him another shot at starting before moving him to the bullpen for good, but Vizcaino has legit closer's stuff, and he may stay healthier pitching in short stints. Call him a dynasty league sleeper if he's on your wire or available deep in your deep league draft.

Broxton's huge fastball and swinging strikes did not return with his health in 2012, but the Reds gave him a closer's contract anyway. Part of that might have rested upon the excellence of his new cutter, which he used to great efficacy late in the season. He certainly showed the best control of his career, and one of the best ground-ball rates of his career, and those are both things associated with cutter usage. The 28-year-old seems like a shaky bet to finish the year closing if he has another year with a strikeout rate under eight, especially if his old wildness returns. This pen might be shook at some point.

Dusty Baker told me at the winter meetings that "If Sean Marshall could close, he would have closed in Chicago," so maybe Marshall isn't a good bet to replace Broxton. But he could get saves here and there and is probably the set-up man, so the die is not completely cast yet. If the Aroldis Chapman to the rotation experiment doesn't work, slide Broxton here and make Chapman the favorite.

Hoover is a relative unknown, but the former Brave has a 93-mph fastball and a platoon-friendly curveball, and got great whiffs last season. At 25, he's young enough to turn more of those whiffs into strikeouts, and improve the walk rate to fall more in line with his minor league rates. If he does so, watch out. He could be an elite reliever as soon as this season.

The mustachioed Milwaukee closer had a bad season in 2012. He still got elite-level strikeouts and above-average whiffs and grounders, but his old nemesis -- control -- came back to haunt him. All those walks, and a few too many homers given his ground-ball rate, turned into a four-plus ERA and a reduced role at one point. There were two benefits to his season, however. For one, we now know who's next in line if he goes down again. And for two, he recovered the role and showed he had some leash. Expect the strikeouts, watch the walks, and hope for fewer home runs. Even if he doesn't push the walk rate back to better than league average, he should be a decent closer if the ball stops leaving the yard so much.

Axford's story -- veteran minor leaguer with bad control and a big fastball harnesses his stuff just enough to become a force at the back end of a major league bullpen -- is replicated one spot behind him on the bullpen depth chart. Thirty-year-old Henderson even did him one better when it came to strikeouts. But he's got the same problems as Axford, and it's really just a roulette roll as to which of them shows the better control next season. Even if it's Henderson, he's no lock to take the role. The first rule of speculating for saves is: "Who's the closer now?"

Now we're dealing with a 24-year-old that doesn't have the same history of control problems. The problem here is that he might end up as a starter. There are plenty who feel like his ~93 mph (semi-flat) fastball would play up in the pen and that he'd be a late-game reliever if the Brewers decide to move him there. The nice thing for dynasty leaguers is that his fate will probably be decided quickly, and that he has enough upside to be a factor in either role.

The Pirates must have spotted something with Grilli, because as soon as he joined the team, his whiff rate and strikeouts jumped from okay to closer territory. Now, at 36, it looks like the team has made him their new closer. It could work out grandly. If Grilli retains the strikeouts for a third year in a row, and puts up one of his better walk rates, there's no reason to think he can't keep the role. On the other hand, it's a little rare, even for a converted reliever, to hit a velocity peak at his age. Would he still be as dominant with a 92-mph fastball?

It's kind of wide open behind Grilli. It could be Pirate-bred Jared Hughes, who uses his sinking fastball almost 90% of the time to get ground balls by the bushel. But -- Brandon League and Jim Johnson aside -- that's not normally the profile of a closer. It's Melancon who gets above-average whiffs, has above-average control, and gets above-average ground balls. You just have to ignore that terrible ERA from last season, which was inflated by an unsustainable home run rate. Melancon has a 93 mph fastball, three or four pitches depending on how you count, and has been bred as a closer. He's more likely.

The Pirates traded Jason Bay and Bryan Morris might be the only thing they got for it. The former Dodger has blossomed in the bullpen, where he uses a 94-mph fastball and strong control as his backbone. He has a history of getting grounders, too. Watch this 25-year-old. It's also worth keeping an eye on Kyle McPherson, who does have a 93-mph fastball and good control, and might see a bump in velocity and swinging strikes if he gives up on starting for good.

Other than his age (turning 31 this season), there's nothing in Jason Motte's statistical profile that suggests that he's in for a decline or is a risky pick this season. He's shown -- over his career and last year -- excellent control, excellent whiffs, and excellent velocity. Last year, he threw his cutter a little more and got the best strikeout rate of his career. Thanks Dave Duncan! But don't forget the risk inherent with all relievers. You probably could have said all of these things about Joe Nathan the year before he broke down and got Tommy John surgery.

Ever since Mitchell Boggs gave up starting, his numbers have improved across the board. Well, he still doesn't get strikeouts at a rate you'd expect for a late-inning reliever (really, he's below-average for the entire pitching population), but he's no Jim Johnson, and he does get grounders and limit long balls. He's a good reliever.

Unfortunately for Boggs, there's a great reliever behind him if Trevor Rosenthal moves to the pen for good. As a reliever, the 22-year-old Cardinal has a 98 mph fastball, a good curveball, and above-average control. He really impressed in his debut, and he's never managed more than 120 1/3 innings in a season to date. With the stable of Cardinals' starting pitching prospects full, Rosenthal might end up as St. Louis' next top closer.