Warner's Lead Widening

Poll Suggests North No Help To Miller

June 07, 1996|By BARRY FLYNN Daily Press

Sen. John Warner is pulling away from James C. Miller III, his more conservative rival, as they approach Tuesday's primary election for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate, according to poll results released Thursday.

Warner has opened up a 16 percent lead over Miller among likely voters in Tuesday's primary, the survey shows.

That's statistically significant and by far the widest spread between the men since they were first paired by the pollster, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc., a year and a half ago.

Warner would beat Miller 53 percent to 37 percent among Virginians who said they would vote, the results say. Ten percent of those who identified themselves as likely voters said they were still undecided.

The poll results also suggested that Iran-Contra figure Oliver North, who endorsed Miller at the party's convention last weekend, may hurt Miller more than help him.

The statewide telephone poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday. It was the first time Warner's support exceeded 50 percent of those surveyed, "significantly reducing his vulnerability" to an upset, the pollster said.

Warner's greatest weakness - his comparative unpopularity among hard-core Republicans - also shows up in the polling data. Warner led Miller just 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters who identify themselves as Republicans, the poll said. That's less than the poll's margin of error and thus a statistically insignificant difference between them among that group.

State law permits any registered voter to cast a ballot in the party primary, - a point that has caused consternation among some Republicans. The poll results include Democrats and independents who say they intend to participate.

Independents who intend to vote in the primary preferred Warner over Miller 55 percent to 33 percent. Democrats who intend to cast ballots favored Warner by a staggering 70 percent to 19 percent for Miller.

Miller said the poll means the primary will be close.

"These numbers reflect a lot of independents and Democrats who aren't going to show up," Miller said. "My people are more highly motivated to go out and vote."

Warner spokesman Eric Peterson said: "We're very pleased by the slow and steady progress, but the poll that counts is on June 11."

As for North, the darling of the party's right, twice as many respondents said North's endorsement of Miller made them less likely to vote for Miller than said it made them more likely to back him. The split was 32 percent less likely to vote for Miller, 15 percent more likely to vote for him and 50 percent indifferent to North's action. Three percent were not sure.

North lost a bid for the U.S. Senate two years ago after Warner condemned him as unfit for office and sponsored the independent candidate, a action he has defended as one of principle.

Miller has pounded away at Warner for disloyalty to the party for opposing North and refusing to support another of the party's Christian right candidates, Michael P. Farris, who lost a run for lieutenant governor in 1993.

A poll question on Warner's opposition to North showed 46 percent of those intending to vote in the primary saw Warner's act as one of political courage, 36 percent viewed it as betrayal of the party and 18 percent were not sure.

The poll also highlighted the split in the party between more moderate Republicans and those who identify with the Christian right contingent.

Respondents who said they were supporters of the Christian Coalition founded by religious broadcaster Pat Robertson favor Miller over Warner 48 percent to 39 percent.

Warner showed up as far ahead of his likely Democratic rival, Mark R. Warner, who is no relation. However, a Miller victory would mean "the November race becomes wide open," Mason-Dixon said.

The Republican Warner would defeat his Democratic namesake 58 percent to 24 percent, according to the poll results. However, Miller now leads Mark Warner by a statistically insignificant 5 percent, 38 percent to 33 percent.

The poll's margin of error is 4.2 percent for primary figures, which means that a spread of 8.4 percent or less between the two primary candidates would be statistically insignificant. Mason-Dixon said the margin of error for general election questions was smaller because the pollsters used a bigger sampling.

"Miller's only chance of overtaking Warner at this point seems to be bad weather" to depress the turnout of less-committed voters and permit the dedicated Republicans a greater say, Mason-Dixon said.

The National Weather Service's five-day forecast for southeastern Virginia through primary day called for partly sunny and warm weather with a chance of afternoon showers.