One last thing to mention, and since the naysayers have to fall back to the "won't NOI" sour grapes position, it's sort of on topic here.

That is, how bogus all the linear or constant-growth exponential calculators are, and why only a troll or fool would quote, let alone believe, those results.

There's a function used in mathematical biology modeling named the Gompertz function. It's got a rich literature, and a pretty useful Wiki page.

Basically, say you have a fixed food supply in a fixed space for a single-cell population. The population will start to grow, at a faster and faster rate, reaching a maximum growth rate, and then, as food for any individual becomes relatively scarce with the increasing competition from growing population, growth slows and ultimately flatlines until there are changes in the external conditions, or mutations with the population that give a new strain a (temporary) competitive advantage.

If that doesn't sound like bitcoin mining to you, maybe you're in the wrong racket.

Somebody ought to produce a calculator that entails Gompertz parameter estimation (which are functions of power consumption, absolute hardware costs, etc.) to give people a chance to estimate the real economics, instead of calculations which have (I'm exaggerating here) more petahash on line in 2015 than there are gigawatts of electricity to power the network.

I know, for a fact, that some exist. Just not yet, it seems, in the public space.

This wont be of much use, IMHO. If you try to squeeze Bitcoin into the Gompertz model you'll get an equivalent of mutation every two weeks (more precisely at every difficulty readjustment). I'm not saying it would be completely useless, I just don't see much of the predictive power from the formulation that you've described.

Anyone else reminded of that scene in goodwill hunting in the bar with that blonde long haired tool?

A little.

The two-week period actually means the continuous Gompertz model would be only an approximation of the discontinuous hashrate-to-bitcoin-per-unit-time ratio, which is what we are interested in.

Anyway, the important thing here is that the Gompertz model is a poor estimator for explosive growth, because you typically get overshoot in undamped, underdamped, and overdamped systems. The EQUILIBRIUM trajectory of a system adjusting to a new carrying capacity is the Gompertz function, but we are not in an equilibrium state, and the system is underdamped.

Does this mean the Saturn will have improved speeds also? I keep hearing about the Jupiter.

Divide by 4? ~500/4=~125

576/4 = 144/chip

Mercury 144

Saturn 288

Jupiter 576

They are useless targets, when 2PH/s of KNCminer gear suddenly hits the net, the machines that make the most profit will be the ones that under clock not over clock. I would be trying to under clock the Jupiter to see if I could get it down to 1watt per GH/s so it can still make profits against an army of Bitfury miners. This more is better nonsense is what's killing BTC mining.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

Does this mean the Saturn will have improved speeds also? I keep hearing about the Jupiter.

Divide by 4? ~500/4=~125

576/4 = 144/chip

Mercury 144

Saturn 288

Jupiter 576

They are useless targets, when 2PH/s of KNCminer gear suddenly hits the net, the machines that make the most profit will be the ones that under clock not over clock. I would be trying to under clock the Jupiter to see if I could get it down to 1watt per GH/s so it can still make profits against an army of Bitfury miners. This more is better nonsense is what's killing BTC mining.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

$330/30 days = $33/day($33/day)/24 hours = $0.45833333c per kWh

Am I missing something here?

Probably a just a bug in the monthly electricity formula http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ uses. It actually says 0.73c per kWh if you use the default values for a Jupiter instead of punching in the updated specs from earlier today like I did. But it highlights a couple of things, run it as fast as you can if your power is prepaid. Run it as slow as you can before profit starts to slide if your electricity is pay as you go.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

From what I calculate, I get the following:

$3960 (Hosting cost) - $150 (At least $150 for the PSU you are NOT having to buy) - $150 (approximately what I paid for my Saturn shipping, which you don't have to pay). So...

$3960 -$150 -$150________ $3660

(($3660/ 12) [months] / 30 [days])/24 [hours]

$3660/12 = $305 price per month

$305/30 = $ 10.17 per day

$10.17/24 = $ 0.4236 per hour

And that price is without counting cooling cost and internet connection; and I'm sure they would have backup internet, and backup power (I assume, as any decent data center would), which most people do not have.

I personally wouldn't (and didn't) go for hosting, but I can see why someone might. You don't have to worry about anything. Just sit back and watch the satoshi's come in.

Does this mean the Saturn will have improved speeds also? I keep hearing about the Jupiter.

Divide by 4? ~500/4=~125

576/4 = 144/chip

Mercury 144

Saturn 288

Jupiter 576

They are useless targets, when 2PH/s of KNCminer gear suddenly hits the net, the machines that make the most profit will be the ones that under clock not over clock. I would be trying to under clock the Jupiter to see if I could get it down to 1watt per GH/s so it can still make profits against an army of Bitfury miners. This more is better nonsense is what's killing BTC mining.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

$330/30 days = $33/day($33/day)/24 hours = $0.45833333c per kWh

Am I missing something here?

Probably a just a bug in the monthly electricity formula http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ uses. It actually says 0.73c per kWh if you use the default values for a Jupiter instead of punching in the updated specs from earlier today like I did. But it highlights a couple of things, run it as fast as you can if your power is prepaid. Run it as slow as you can before profit starts to slide if your electricity is pay as you go.

Sorry but that still doesn't make any more sense. On that calculator you input the kWh and that is a fixed variable, I don't see how the specs of the Jupiter could have any effect on the kWh rate. Its your fixed cost for electricity.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

From what I calculate, I get the following:

$3960 (Hosting cost) - $150 (At least $150 for the PSU you are NOT having to buy) - $150 (approximately what I paid for my Saturn shipping, which you don't have to pay). So...

$3960 -$150 -$150________ $3660

(($3660/ 12) [months] / 30 [days])/24 [hours]

$3660/12 = $305 price per month

$305/30 = $ 10.17 per day

$10.17/24 = $ 0.4236 per hour

And that price is without counting cooling cost and internet connection; and I'm sure they would have backup internet, and backup power (I assume, as any decent data center would), which most people do not have.

I personally wouldn't (and didn't) go for hosting, but I can see why someone might. You don't have to worry about anything. Just sit back and watch the satoshi's come in.

And if you say the unit draws about 700watts, it's was originally 640watt, but now it's going faster and I don't know the real figure yet so I am guessing, you get 0.4236 /0.7 = 0.60cents per kWh.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

From what I calculate, I get the following:

$3960 (Hosting cost) - $150 (At least $150 for the PSU you are NOT having to buy) - $150 (approximately what I paid for my Saturn shipping, which you don't have to pay). So...

$3960 -$150 -$150________ $3660

(($3660/ 12) [months] / 30 [days])/24 [hours]

$3660/12 = $305 price per month

$305/30 = $ 10.17 per day

$10.17/24 = $ 0.4236 per hour

And that price is without counting cooling cost and internet connection; and I'm sure they would have backup internet, and backup power (I assume, as any decent data center would), which most people do not have.

I personally wouldn't (and didn't) go for hosting, but I can see why someone might. You don't have to worry about anything. Just sit back and watch the satoshi's come in.

And if you say the unit draws about 700watts, it's was originally 640watt, but now it's going faster and I don't know the real figure yet so I am guessing, you get 0.4236 /0.7 = 0.60cents per kWh.

Also the fact that you have to get a minimum of 6 months at an even higher price.

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

From what I calculate, I get the following:

$3960 (Hosting cost) - $150 (At least $150 for the PSU you are NOT having to buy) - $150 (approximately what I paid for my Saturn shipping, which you don't have to pay). So...

$3960 -$150 -$150________ $3660

(($3660/ 12) [months] / 30 [days])/24 [hours]

$3660/12 = $305 price per month

$305/30 = $ 10.17 per day

$10.17/24 = $ 0.4236 per hour

And that price is without counting cooling cost and internet connection; and I'm sure they would have backup internet, and backup power (I assume, as any decent data center would), which most people do not have.

I personally wouldn't (and didn't) go for hosting, but I can see why someone might. You don't have to worry about anything. Just sit back and watch the satoshi's come in.

And if you say the unit draws about 700watts, it's was originally 640watt, but now it's going faster and I don't know the real figure yet so I am guessing, you get 0.4236 /0.7 = 0.60cents per kWh.

Does this make sense to anyone else? How do you go from .4236c per kWh to .60? Maybe I am just retarded but I am not following can someone please explain it if its logical?

Hashing Bitcoins within a few hours of it being assembled at the factory

So we should see a hash rise on the net in the next day or so then? I hope http://bitcoinwatch.com/ find a way to include the KNCminer data center on their pie charts rather than just bundling it as unknown.

Hashing Bitcoins within a few hours of it being assembled at the factory

So we should see a hash rise on the net in the next day or so then? I hope http://bitcoinwatch.com/ find a way to include the KNCminer data center on their pie charts rather than just bundling it as unknown.

Hashing Bitcoins within a few hours of it being assembled at the factory

So we should see a hash rise on the net in the next day or so then? I hope http://bitcoinwatch.com/ find a way to include the KNCminer data center on their pie charts rather than just bundling it as unknown.

Hashing Bitcoins within a few hours of it being assembled at the factory

So we should see a hash rise on the net in the next day or so then? I hope http://bitcoinwatch.com/ find a way to include the KNCminer data center on their pie charts rather than just bundling it as unknown.

Hashing Bitcoins within a few hours of it being assembled at the factory

So we should see a hash rise on the net in the next day or so then? I hope http://bitcoinwatch.com/ find a way to include the KNCminer data center on their pie charts rather than just bundling it as unknown.

Have a look at elgius hash rate rise today.

That's because the two biggest pools were under a DoS attack since last night.

O.K. let's see if I can wrap my little mind around the concepts here...it is kind of hard cause I saw/heard the video and have a "woody" going on and all the blood has rushed out of my head....so....I bought this miner in July 1st 2013 Jupiter and I think they we're saying at that point I'd get 250gh out of the beast...(maybe more I forget..but I did email them for info the first day they announced...perhaps that is where I got the 250 from....).....then like in the video it says it is 300 then 350...then 400 then 500 and the video says they hit 576gh I think it was with the beast and they are ON TIME....with NO cost passed on to us ....the customer for the increase.......

So being a BFL victim...and awaiting my april 12th order of 65gh that I paid 3519 bucks for....and likely will not see till NOV 2013....(scumbags)....my MODEST hope was 400gh with maybe an 11% improvement over the 400gh as our "significant hash increase" so I'd get like 465gh from KNC and perhaps with some denial/therapy etc maybe I could convince myself it was a 'draw" for the salvation of my ego ...with the reaming I got from BFL.....ie the knc 65gh extra is an unexpected reprieve from my non-shipment 65gh from BFL horror....(hey I'm grasping at straws here..but my ego is kinda beat up...here...I'm a humbler and hopefully more well rounded ASIC miner these days...(kicked puppy syndrome)...

and instead of 65gh or a modest 11% increase over 400gh to say 465gh they then without warning showing me a working Jupiter that at the end of the video I'm told it is hashing at 576GH?........OBVIOUSLY my viewpoint on the Swedish word translated into the word "significant" needs an upgrade.....so they kind of missed the mark with an "improvement" of a potential 176gh over the 400gh estimate. And unlike BFL ...its FREE.....?

(ok again taking a moment here. ...combination of the woody and euphoria and heady concepts of 176gh potentially of FREE GH too much..breathe.......in/out..)

ahem...by my calculations that is a 44% improvement on the Jupiter 400gh...

(deep breaths)

So sorry can't come up with any words on how "blown away" I am on all this ...I mean as a formerly "abused" ASIC purchaser from BFL you people are way way too nice

(battered bfl syndrome)

anyway congrats /kudos / thanks a bunch ...makes my foray into BFL neverland somewhat more tolerable and the hole I have gotten myself into with them is considerably shallower ROI wise....with KNC's efforts...so with that perhaps I can move on and call it a "draw" ....(BFL and the other ASIC guys must be going "wtf" on all this" imho lol)

and by the by anyone on here with BFL forum access (er I was somewhat banned from their shoutbox and posting in forums for my somewhat ...shall I say 'accurate" assessment of BFL"s business format/practices...please please get on their forum and post in the thread entitled "KNC does not make its deadline for a miner" and the subsequent posts within stating it will be another month an nauseum...the info here......I'd do so but alas ...they no likey me no more someone else here with access please go there and post the truth....."humble pie" servings are needed on that thread imho...

So thanks bitcoinorama for you info.....made my day...probably the most shocking validation of faith in any product I've purchased in my entire life!!!!

my 2c worth

Searing (gonna go lie down all this unrestrainded happiness and glee is exhausting!!)

The people that have opted to pay 12 months upfront @ $330/mth. hosting, you can consider that a $0.60c per kWh power cost in your calculations.

From what I calculate, I get the following:

$3960 (Hosting cost) - $150 (At least $150 for the PSU you are NOT having to buy) - $150 (approximately what I paid for my Saturn shipping, which you don't have to pay). So...

$3960 -$150 -$150________ $3660

(($3660/ 12) [months] / 30 [days])/24 [hours]

$3660/12 = $305 price per month

$305/30 = $ 10.17 per day

$10.17/24 = $ 0.4236 per hour

And that price is without counting cooling cost and internet connection; and I'm sure they would have backup internet, and backup power (I assume, as any decent data center would), which most people do not have.

I personally wouldn't (and didn't) go for hosting, but I can see why someone might. You don't have to worry about anything. Just sit back and watch the satoshi's come in.

And if you say the unit draws about 700watts, it's was originally 640watt, but now it's going faster and I don't know the real figure yet so I am guessing, you get 0.4236 /0.7 = 0.60cents per kWh.

Does this make sense to anyone else? How do you go from .4236c per kWh to .60? Maybe I am just retarded but I am not following can someone please explain it if its logical?

Because the $0.4236 is per hour based on the price.

According to erk's 700w guestimate; 700w*24= 16800w usage for the day.If you divide $10.17 (daily price) by 16.8Khw, you get $0.6054.

He/she is right, but like I said, that doesn't take anything else into account (internet, cooling costs, redundant internet connections, back up power, etc...)