MURFREESBORO – Trying to get a grip on the MTSU baseball team's season has been futile at best.

The Blue Raiders (24-20, 15-6 Conference USA) have been in first or second place in C-USA all season long, having never been more than one-game out of first place at any point. They are tied with No. 18 Florida Atlantic (33-10, 15-6) entering this weekend's series.

But MTSU has been equally as bad in its midweek contests. The Raiders are 2-10 in non-weekend games on the season and to make matters worse for fans, all 10 losses have been to in-state teams.

Because of its the middle-of-the-week struggles, an at-large appearance in the NCAA regionals is all but dead as the team boasts an RPI of No. 71 – fifth-best in C-USA – as of Wednesday. Yet, the team's success in league play still gives it a chance at its first NCAA automatic berth since its last regional appearance in 2009.

Here are three reasons Blue Raiders fans should be confident and three causes for concern in regards to getting back to the NCAA tournament entering the team's final three conference series of the year, which starts with Friday's nationally-televised game against Western Kentucky (TV: Fox Sports 2, 7 p.m.).

3 reasons for confidence

Strong 1-2 punch: Friday starter Johnathan Frebis and Saturday starter Nathan Hoffmann have allowed more than three earned runs just twice in eight combined eight April starts and only three times – combined – since the calendar flipped to March (16 starts).

The duo has been far better than anticipated and if they can keep up those numbers, MTSU has a good chance to stay in the winners bracket for a while at next month's double-elimination C-USA tournament in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.

Raiders in the outfield: MTSU's outfield trio of left fielder Jared Allen, center fielder Ronnie Jebavy and right fielder Brad Jarreau has driven the team's offense all season.

Collectively, the group is hitting .314 (the team's average is .266), has mashed 15 of the Raiders' 28 home runs, has accounted for 44.6 of the team's RBIs and has 28 of the team's 39 stolen bases. Without their production, MTSU is probably below .500 on the year.

Eeking out wins: All good baseball teams find a way to win close games and the Raiders have been able to do that.

MTSU is 15-7 in games decided by two runs or less and 7-4 in the month of April. If that trend continues in the final month of the year, its first C-USA title could be within reach.

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3 causes for concern

Defensive lapses: The Raiders have allowed 37 unearned runs in 2015 and have a team fielding percentage of .967, both numbers rank in the middle the league. But it's been the timing of some of the errors and unearned runs that have been costly.

Losses to then-No. 2 Vanderbilt, Lipscomb, Louisiana Tech and Austin Peay were all the direct result of unearned runs. Those lapses can't happen if the team expects to make it the regionals for the first time in six seasons.

Offensive lapses: MTSU's magic number all season long has been three. When the team scores three runs or more, it is 22-5 overall and 14-1 in C-USA. When it scores two runs or less, the Raiders are 2-15 overall and 1-5 in league play.

If the team runs into an inability to score in any of its final three series of the year against WKU, Texas-San Antonio or Southern Miss, it could fall significantly in the conference standings, resulting in a much tougher draw in the C-USA tournament.

The big inning: Coach Jim McGuire has lamented the "big inning" on several occasions, saying when his team gets behind because of an opponent's offensive outburst it has often been the beginning of the end on that particular night.

Jacksonville, New Orleans, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Rice (twice) and Austin Peay all scored at least four runs in at least one inning before handing the Raiders a loss. Keeping those big numbers off the scoreboard will be vital down the stretch of this season.

NEXT SERIES

WKU (22-20, 9-12 C-USA) at MTSU (25-20, 15-6 C-USA)

When: Friday-Sunday (7 p.m., 4 p.m., 1 p.m.)

Where: Reese Smith Jr. Field

TV: Fox Sports 2 (Game 1)

Radio: 89.5-FM

Raiders beat Tech

After losing a two-run lead in the eighth inning, MTSU battled back to defeat rival Tennessee Tech 7-5 in ten innings on Wednesday night in Cookeville.

The game-winning run came in the top of the tenth inning after Jake Ingold doubled to right field that scored Ronnie Jebavy for a 6-5 lead. Ingold, who finished 3-for-5 with two runs scored and one RBI, came around to score one batter later when Austin Bryant single to center field for a 7-5 lead.

Senior Keaton Baker earned the win for the Blue Raiders (25-20) – his first of the season – after not allowing a hit and recording two strikeouts in pitching the final two innings.

The win was just the second midweek victory of the season for MTSU, which hosts rival Western Kentucky at 7 p.m. on Friday.

Contact Will Borthick at 615-278-5167. Follow him on Twitter @willborthick.