Perfect Labor Storm 2.0 is a blog that highlights workforce trends, demographic shifts, and human resources changes that will change the way employers do business.

February 2010

February 16, 2010

With every improvement in technology, products that were once a staple and a source of revenues, profits and stability may suddenly become obsolete. What that means for employers and employees alike is that you don't want to blink because the world may just be passing you by. If you own and/or work in one of the following industries, you might want to think twice. Based on projections from the research firm IBISWorld, the following 10 industries are in danger of becoming extinct:

February 08, 2010

What will you be doing for a living in 10 years? The chances are it won't be what you're doing now, and it may be something that doesn't yet exist.

It's estimated that 22% to 29% of all U.S. jobs will be offshored within two decades. Ian Wylie, writing for the Guardian, suggests 20 jobs you might want to pursue if you’re planning ahead. Here are just a few of them:

Traceability manager Examines global supply chains and checks for suppliers that might be excessively pollutive or carbon-costly to buy from.

Uranium recycler Converts bomb-grade uranium from warheads into low-enriched uranium for use in nuclear power plants.

Personal bot mechanic Domestic assistants will work 24/7, but will still need the occasional tune-up.

Simplicity consultant Simplifies and streamlines processes, technologies and branding in an organization.

LocaPreneur Starts up a local bank, makes local cosmetics or soft drinks that are able to compete head-to-head with the big corporations that no one trusts any more.

Bioinformationist Scientist who marries genetic information with drug development and clinical techniques.

Home companion-caretaker Enables people to stay in their homes and live with dignity.

Online education broker Tailors a learning package for the client, dovetailing relevant modules from courses and syllabuses around the world.

Wylie also suggests a few jobs that will be gone and several that will never go out of style. According to Wylie, if you’re a union organizer, construction worker or soldier, you might want to start looking into an alternative career path.

As for lawyers, politicians, tax collectors, and prostitutes, there’s good news. You’re jobs are safe — for now.

February 04, 2010

The unsuccessful hand-off of a business from one owner to another is so common these days that its mere mention likely brings an extended yawn to most people. Many of the failures have been attributed to too-little or too-late succession planning.

But the failed hand-off from Jay Leno to Conan O’Brien has not only become fodder for business school case studies but headline news on Entertainment Tonight and The National Enquirer.

Times change and so do entertainment tastes. So what then makes "The Tonight Show" fiasco so fascinating?

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out last week, ‘Leno-Conan Mess Offers Management Lessons.’ The article points out two critical missteps made by NBC: “It's a bad idea to promise someone a promotion in order to retain him … and so is naming a successor too far in advance.”

While I agree these are blatant mistakes, the article misses several inherent landmines management keeps tiptoeing around.

Leno, like many other Baby Boomers, wasn’t ready to leave. Unlike Traditionalists (born before 1946) and older Baby Boomers who aspire to retire, many Boomers are just launching new careers or getting a second wind. When they were 45 or 50 years old, retirement at 60 sounded good. But for a variety of reasons, retirement in the traditional sense of “stop working” is essentially dead. Compare this to the hand-off from Johnny Carson to Leno. Leno’s first year was no picnic but Carson remained silent and stayed away. Carson retired — period. That was then — this is now.

I saw the same phenomenon 30 years ago in my prior career when dentists and physicians brought in associates to initiate a succession plan. They promised ownership and equity but just could never let go, get out of the way, or make room at the top. Today this trend is epidemic. Baby Boomers promised Gen X the opportunity to move up and take over but as the due date neared, they wanted an open-ended invitation to stay. Since they owned the game ball, Gen X is expected to play by their rules or leave.

Many Gen X (born 1965-1979) have and will choose the latter. Fed up with these shenanigans, their Gen X successors and future source of leadership talent are deciding they had enough with this artificially imposed “gray ceiling.” The Leno-Conan feud is a classic inter-generational conflict with grave consequences for NBC … and a huge lesson for anyone managing a business. While NBC had the best of both worlds for 5 years, they now are losing Conan anyway plus paying him along with his staff millions as part of severance.

Leno, the ultimate Baby Boomer, is taking the helm again. How many times has this scenario been repeated in real-life? How many times has a business owner announced his retirement to allow the next generation to move up only to renege on the deal or jump back into the business at the first sign of trouble? With nearly 8,000 Baby Boomers turning 60 every day, this abortion of succession planning is being repeated with a frightening frequency… and only to get worse since most businesses have no plan at all.

NBC also ignore the demographics and the way different generations use media. In effect they ignored the demographics completely. Leno has a Baby Boomer following. Conan’s largest audience comes from Gen X and young Baby Boomers. Just like with any transition, you can’t dictate change. NBC’s plan was to tell Baby Boomers they can still watch Leno… but be forced to change their viewing habits. When has that strategy ever worked?

They then allowed Conan to make his mark without any consideration to the viewers. Yes, Conan retained the Gen X audience but lost many Baby Boomers. Did NBC even bother to consider that there are only half as many Gen X as Boomers? How did they expect to maintain or grow market share if Conan didn’t adapt his show?

The underlying lessons in this failed succession plan have much more to do with demographics and generational values than succession plan timing as the WSJ article pointed out. NBC ignored the gray ceiling and miscalculated miserably the impact that generational difference will have on business.

The resentment between Gen X and Baby Boomers is heating up. The recession kept the conflict on simmer for the past two years. But I predict that the failed succession of Leno to O’Brien is only the first sign of a generational melting pot ready to boil over.

February 03, 2010

When writing my monthly column for Business2Business, I included a statistic from a previous post about my prediction for jobs growth in 2010. “Unlike the economic recoveries in the past," I wrote, "we won’t see wholesale re-hiring of tens of thousands of people by a single company. In fact, only 5.8 million of the 25 million businesses in the United States have employees, and just 650,000 of those have at least 20 employees.”

The editor challenged me, asking me how is it possible to have these many businesses without employees. "Welcome to a new economy,” I replied, where downsized managers strike out on their own with their industry or product knowledge and entrepreneurial spirit and everyday workers become independent contractors and freelancers to supplement their income.

Our discussion highlighted how the current economic paradigm surrounding “jobs creation” is being threatened by an explosion of businesses without employees. It threatens many a strategic plan because top talent may no longer be looking for traditional working arrangements as the economy rebounds.

This week I received a Tweet from a colleague that included a link to a blog post about "nonemployer startups." I’ll admit — it brought a smile to my face as I now had 27 pages of documentation provided by the SBA to support my claim.

The report from the SBA's Office of Advocacy shows that firms with no employees account for three-quarters of all U.S. businesses, yet produce only 3% of business receipts. However, while they account for only a small share of the economy, they are a "gateway to becoming employer firms, providing flexible work opportunities and a path to economic prosperity."

The startup rate for nonemployer firms is three times the rate for employer firms. How companies execute their strategies will be impacted significantly by this growing trend. John Sumser posted a brilliant article on his new blog HRExaminer that just lightly touched on this issue but added several other related game-changing trends:

Talent: Finding the right person is no longer a ’single origin’ question

How will this explosion of nonemployer firms affect your business? Will they create new opportunities for collaboration or create new competition? Will they allow you to tap top talent who are now free agents or siphon off valuable innovative skills that go to the highest bidder? How will you respond when the talent you need prefers to remain self-employed rather than waiting for your job offer? Job Market of the Future: Startups With Zero Employees?

February 01, 2010

You’re not alone. According to a new survey about leadership skills from Pearson and Executive Development Associates Inc. (EDA), 57% of business executives said their leadership talent pipeline was the same or weaker today than it was two years ago. Seventy-five percent said increasing bench strength will be their top business priority for the next two to three years. Is this too little too effort?

When asked what skills were needed to assume executive positions within the next three to five years, respondents cited strategic thinking, leading change, the ability to create a vision and engage others around it, the ability to inspire, and the ability to understand how the total enterprise works. But the respondents also agreed these were the very skills lacking in their current talent pool.

The right successor must have just the right blend of personality, time and experience. And with a more complex and faster changing marketplace destined to be our future, the ability to deal with ambiguity and paradox is paramount. This combination requires innate talent plus development. Creating this competency can take years and many people just are not equipped to ascend to the role. And others who have the skills and experience aren’t willing to give up their personal and family lives in exchange for a promotion and title. What motivated the Baby Boomers doesn’t motivate Gen X and Gen Y.

In addition to lack of skills, a leadership shortage is all but a done deal. When the Baby Boomers finally decide to slow down or retire, pure demographics will stall the succession. Gen X, the succeeding generation, is little more than half the size of the Boomers. And many Gen X and Gen Y are putting family before careers.

One more glitch: while three to five years may not be enough time to develop the next generation of leaders, it might also be too long in a competitive market. Many talented Gen X are tired of waiting for the Boomers to get out of the way. As the economy is rebounding, job offers will start coming in. It is already happening. Competitors and emerging companies are scouring the job market for talent and your next leader could be their target.