QUESTION FROM ALEX: Apart from the immigration question, is there reliable data on whether hispanics favor democrats over republicans, as in, if the gop party nominee in 2012 espoused the gw bush/rick perry/old john mccain position on immigration, would hispanics be inclined to vote for the republican over obama?

KEN AULETTA: Hello. I welcome your questions, and will begin with this one: In presidential elections, Hispanic voters have favored the Democratic candidate. However, it is a rule of thumb among Republican and Democratic strategists that for a Republican to win the candidate will need to attract a minimum of 35 per cent of Hispanic voters. This is what George W. and George H.W. Bush did. John McCain failed to achieve this goal in 2008

QUESTION FROM TED REGENCIA: If Romney is the GOP nominee, how likely it is that he will pick Rubio as VP?

KEN AULETTA: According to Republican strategists, Rubio will probably be on the shortlist of VP contenders. He is young and attractive. He comes from a critical swing state, Florida. And he’s Hispanic, which suggests he might help the ticket climb above the magical 35 per cent of Hispanic voters. For Romney he offers this allure: Marco Rubio has credibility among Tea Party conservatives that Romney lacks. It might also be noted that key members of Rubio’s staff worked for Romney in his 2008 quest for the presidency.

QUESTION FROM GUEST: Why do you think that the Republicans and their supporters have turned so hard line on the immigration issue?

KEN AULETTA: They have succumbed to thinking about the next primary election, not the general election. A hard-line on immigration issues—denouncing “illegals,” calling for an impregnable 2,000 mile-long border fence—is appealing to voters in states like Iowa. It is particularly appealing to Tea Party conservatives. But it is a potential turn off to voters in states like Florida that have large Hispanic populations. This illustrates a conundrum common to both parties: How to emerge from the primaries without dooming your chances among more moderate general election voters?

QUESTION FROM HOPE R.: Was the Miami Herald angry when they read this story? How delicate are issues like this among news organizations?

KEN AULETTA: I thought the Herald story odd. They front paged a story that, in effect, accused Univision of blackmailing Senator Rubio. Their story relied on notes taken from a Rubio staffer on a conference call, and from what they called Univision “insiders.” Yet the Rubio staffer’s notes were not as incriminating as the Herald concluded. And the Herald spoke to none of the six Univision executives on the conference call. Thus the Univision “insiders” were outsiders to this call. Odder still was that the Herald did not speak to Gerardo Reyes, the reporter who broke the story about Marco Rubio’s brother-in-law having been sentenced to a 25 year prison term for drug trafficking, although the editor of the Herald and the two Herald reporters who wrote the front page story told me he is an outstanding reporter and a friend.

There’s another odd fact that weakens both the Herald and Rubio staffer’s account: although the conference call was in July, in email messages to Univision directly after the call the staffer never complained that Univision tried to blackmail them by offering a “quid pro quo.” If they were truly outraged, why wait until October to protest? And since no protest was made, why didn’t the Herald mention this?

QUESTION FROM MARGOFLA: The Cuban-American community is notoriously conservative, and as you mention in your article, very different from other Hispanic groups across the nation. Rubio may have less appeal than a more neutral VP option.

KEN AULETTA: That is one of the interesting and unanswerable questions surrounding a possible Rubio VP nod.

QUESTION FROM GEORGE IN TEXAS: Is Rubio’s move to the right a sign of the times, or a genuine change in political beliefs.

KEN AULETTA: In fairness, Rubio has always been a conservative. And a smart and articulate man. But he moved to the right in 2010 when he challenged the more moderate Republican Governor. His position on immigration also hardened.

QUESTION FROM MEGAN SMITH: Univision as a network is a fascinating story in itself. Was that first what got your attention, or was it Rubio?

KEN AULETTA: Both. I was frankly surprised when I learned that Univision sometimes reached a larger audience than some of the Big Four broadcast networks, and that its Hispanic viewers were much more dependent on Univision news than are the viewers of ABC, CBS, Fox, or NBC. And because I write about communications, I was also fascinated by the communication challenge facing Republicans this year as they vie to communicate with Hispanic voters that may be insulted by their primary rhetoric.

QUESTION FROM JANIS: Jeb Bush is probably the more appealing VP choice from Florida. If that is, he had a different last name…

KEN AULETTA: Jeb Bush did better among Hispanic voters in Florida than Marco Rubio did. His position on immigration issues is more moderate than Senator Rubio’s, and certainly to the left of the current Republican field of candidates.

QUESTION FROM NIKOLAS: What have you made of the media coverage of the GOP primaries? It feels like the news cycles are the primary forces driving the anti-Mitts forward.

KEN AULETTA: I never cease to be amazed, every four years, at how my colleagues in the press treat just over 100,000 Iowa caucus voters as truly significant. We can’t resist horse race coverage, whether it is a caucus vote, a poll, or who won or lost a debate.

Rubio is 40 and is new to the national stage. He is smarter than George H.W. Bush’s VP choice, Senator Dan Quayle, and more articulate. But a national campaign and unrelenting news cycles are a trying gauntlet.

QUESTION FROM GUEST: Rubio worked for Univision… half the Republicans in the race at least worked for Fox—should this back and forth between television and elected office be troubling, or is it only natural?

KEN AULETTA: I find myself troubled by it. Just as I do when you watch former generals serve as commentators or political operatives. There is too little transparency, and the viewer doesn’t often enough know what their true agenda is.

QUESTION FROM CHARLIE: Rubio is a kid. Does he have the experience and maturity to assume the Presidency?

QUESTION FROM LEVI: In all likelihood, due to the disappointment of the latino community with Obama and the libertarian, big gov. surge, will Rubio on the ticket move voters from the democratic party to Romney?

KEN AULETTA: We may find out. We may not. If Rubio is chosen by the Republican nominee, the bet will be that he can deliver both Florida and pull the Republican ticket closer to splitting among Hispanic voters. The belief, which Rubio told me he shares, is that the stagnant economy will be the decisive issue in the campaign, and that Hispanic voters will vote as most other voters will to punish the Democratic incumbent. But as one prominent national Republican I quoted said, “Issues are not how voters decide. It’s what kind of person they think the person is. They don’t like people who they feel don’t like them.” If Hispanic voters feel picked on, belittled by Republicans, economics will recede as an issue.

QUESTION FROM JONES: Thankfully Florida was spared the spectacle of many candidates stumbling through some Spanish phrases.. at least on Univision.

KEN AULETTA: We’ll still get to see candidates stumble with Spanish phrases, starting in Florida and extending to New Mexico, Colorado, California, etc.

QUESTION FROM TR: Regardless of Rubio’s possible position on the ticket, doesn’t Florida look pretty bleak for Obama?

KEN AULETTA: No. There would be less talk of Rubio as VP if Republicans were that confident of a win in Florida.

Thank you. I enjoyed this exchange.

Illustration by Steve Brodner.

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