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Testimony:
Before the Joint Economic Committee United States Congress:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery Expected at 9:30 a.m. EDT:
Wednesday, May 23, 2007:
Energy Markets:
Mergers and Other Factors That Influence Gasoline Prices:
Statement of Thomas McCool, Director:
Applied Research and Methods:
GAO-07-894T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-07-894T, a report to the Joint Economic Committee of
the United States Congress
Why GAO Did This Study:
Few issues generate more attention and anxiety among American consumers
than the price of gasoline. The most current upsurge in prices is no
exception. According to data from the Energy Information Administration
(EIA), the average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline in the
United States has increased almost every week this year since January
29th and reached an all-time high of $3.21 the week of May 21st. Over
this time period, the price has increase $1.05 per gallon and added
about $23 billion to consumers’ total gasoline bill, or about $167 for
each passenger car in the United States.
Given the importance of gasoline for the nation’s economy, it is
essential to understand the market for gasoline and the factors that
influence gasoline prices. In this context, this testimony addresses
the following questions: (1) what key factors affect the prices of
gasoline and (2) what effects have mergers had on market concentration
and wholesale gasoline prices?
To address these questions, GAO relied on previous reports, including a
2004 GAO report on mergers in the U.S. petroleum industry, a 2005 GAO
primer on gasoline prices and a 2006 testimony. GAO also collected
updated data from EIA. This work was performed in accordance with
generally accepted government auditing standards.
What GAO Found:
The price of crude oil is a major determinant of gasoline prices.
However, a number of other factors also affect gasoline prices
including (1) increasing demand for gasoline; (2) refinery capacity in
the United States that has not expanded at the same pace as the demand
for gasoline; (3) a declining trend in gasoline inventories and (4)
regulatory factors, such as national air quality standards, that have
induced some states to switch to special gasoline blends.
Petroleum industry consolidation plays a role in determining gasoline
prices too. The 1990s saw a wave of merger activity in which over 2600
mergers occurred in all segments of the U.S. petroleum industry. This
wave of mergers contributed to increased market concentration in U.S.
refining and marketing segments. Econometric modeling GAO performed on
eight of these mergers showed that, after controlling for other factors
including crude oil prices, the majority resulted in higher wholesale
gasoline prices—generally between 1 and 7 cents per gallon. While these
price increases seem small, they are not trivial—according to FTC’s
standards for merger review in the petroleum industry, a 1-cent
increase is considered to be significant. Additional mergers occurring
since 2000 are expected to increase the level of industry concentration
further, and because GAO has not yet performed modeling on these
mergers, we cannot comment on any potential price effects at this time.
We are currently studying the effects of the mergers that have occurred
since 2000 as a follow up to our previous work on mergers in the 1990s.
Also, we are working on a separate study on issues related to petroleum
inventories, refining, and fuel prices.
Figure: Selected Oil Industry mergers:
[See PDF for Image]
Source: GAO.
[End of section]
[Hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-894T].
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
the link above. For more information, contact Tom McCool at (202) 512-
2642 or mccoolt@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:
We are pleased to participate in the Joint Economic Committee's hearing
to discuss the factors that influence the price of gasoline, including
oil industry mergers. Few issues generate more attention and anxiety
among American consumers than the price of gasoline. Periods of price
increases are accompanied by high levels of media attention and
consumers questioning the causes of higher prices. The most current
upsurge in prices is no exception. Anybody who has filled up lately has
felt the pinch of rising gasoline prices. Over the last few years, our
nation has seen a significant run up in the prices that consumers pay
for gasoline. According to data from the Energy Information
Administration (EIA), the average retail price of regular unleaded
gasoline in the United States reached $3.21 per gallon the week of May
21, 2007, breaking the previous record of $3.06 in September of 2005
following Hurricane Katrina. This year, from January 29th to the
present, gasoline prices have increased almost every week, and during
this time the average U.S. price for regular unleaded gasoline jumped
$1.05 per gallon, adding about $23 billion to consumers' total gasoline
bill, or about $167 for each passenger car in the United States.
Spending billions more on gasoline constrains consumers' budgets,
leaving less money available for other purchases.
However, for the average person understanding the complex interactions
of the oil industry, consumers and the government can be daunting. For
example, gasoline prices are affected by the decisions of the industry
regarding refining capacity and utilization, gasoline inventories, as
well as changes in industry structure such as consolidations; by
consumers' decisions regarding the kinds of automobiles they purchase;
and by government's regulatory standards. These are some of the key
factors affecting gasoline prices that we will discuss today.
Given the importance of gasoline for our economy, it is essential to
understand the market for gasoline and what factors influence the
prices that consumers pay. You expressed particular interest in the
role consolidation in the U.S. petroleum industry may have played. In
this context, this testimony addresses the following questions: (1)
what key factors affect the prices of gasoline? (2) What effects have
mergers had on market concentration and wholesale gasoline prices?
To address these questions, we relied on information developed for a
previous GAO report on mergers in the U.S. petroleum industry, the GAO
primer on gasoline markets, and a previous testimony on gasoline prices
and other aspects of the petroleum industry.[Footnote 1] We also
reviewed reports and other documents by the Federal Trade Commission
(FTC) on the U.S. petroleum industry.[Footnote 2] In addition, we
obtained updated data from EIA. This work was performed in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.
In summary, we make the following observations:
* The price of crude oil is a major determinant of gasoline prices. A
number of other factors also affect gasoline prices including (1)
increasing demand for gasoline; (2) refinery capacity in the United
States that has not expanded at the same pace as demand for gasoline in
recent years, which coupled with high refinery capacity utilization
rates, reduces refiners' ability to sufficiently respond to supply
disruptions; (3) gasoline inventories maintained by refiners or
marketers of gasoline that have seen a general downward trend in recent
years; and (4) regulatory factors, such as national air quality
standards, that have induced some states to switch to special gasoline
blends that have been linked to higher gasoline prices. Finally,
consolidation in the petroleum industry plays a role in determining
gasoline prices. For example, mergers raise concerns about potential
anticompetitive effects because mergers could result in greater market
power for the merged companies, potentially allowing them to increase
and sustain prices above competitive levels; on the other hand, these
mergers could lead to efficiency effects enabling the merged companies
to lower prices.
* The 1990s saw a wave of merger activity in which over 2,600 mergers
occurred in all segments of the U.S. petroleum industry. Almost 85
percent of the mergers occurred in the upstream segment (exploration
and production), while the downstream segment (refining and marketing
of petroleum) accounted for 13 percent, and the midstream
(transportation) accounted for about 2 percent. This wave of mergers
contributed to increases in market concentration in the refining and
marketing segments of the U.S. petroleum industry. Anecdotal evidence
suggests that mergers may also have affected other factors that impact
competition, such as vertical integration and barriers to entry.
Econometric modeling we performed of eight mergers involving major
integrated oil companies that occurred in the 1990s showed that, after
controlling for other factors including crude oil prices, the majority
resulted in wholesale gasoline price increases--generally between about
1 and 7 cents per gallon. While these price increases seem small, they
are not trivial because according to FTC's standards for merger review
in the petroleum industry, a 1-cent increase is considered to be
significant. Additional mergers since 2000 are expected to increase the
level of industry concentration. However, because we have not performed
modeling on these mergers, we cannot comment on any potential effect on
gasoline prices at this time.
Crude Oil Prices and Other Factors Affect Gasoline Prices:
Crude oil prices are a major determinant of gasoline prices. As figure
1 shows, crude oil and gasoline prices have generally followed a
similar path over the past three decades and have risen considerably
over the past few years.
Figure 1: Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices--1976-2006 (Not adjusted for
inflation):
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of EIA data.
[End of figure]
Also, as is the case for most goods and services, changes in the demand
for gasoline relative to changes in supply affect the price that
consumers pay. In other words, if the demand for gasoline increases
faster than the ability to supply it, the price of gasoline will most
likely increase. In 2006, the United States consumed an average of 387
million gallons of gasoline per day. This consumption is 59 percent
more than the 1970 average per day consumption of 243 million gallons-
-an average increase of about 1.6 percent per year for the last 36
years. As we have shown in a previous GAO report, most of the increased
U.S. gasoline consumption over the last two decades has been due to
consumer preference for larger, less-fuel efficient vehicles such as
vans, pickups, and SUVs, which have become a growing part of the
automotive fleet.[Footnote 3]
Refining capacity and utilization rates also play a role in determining
gasoline prices. Refinery capacity in the United States has not
expanded at the same pace as demand for gasoline and other petroleum
products in recent years. U.S. refineries have been running at very
high rates of utilization averaging 92 percent since the 1990s,
compared to about an average of 78 percent in the 1980s.[Footnote 4]
Figure 2 shows that since 1970 utilization has been approaching the
limits of U.S. refining capacity. Although the average capacity of
existing refineries has increased, refiners have limited ability to
increase production as demand increases. While the lack of spare
refinery capacity may contribute to higher refinery margins, it also
increases the vulnerability of gasoline markets to short-term supply
disruptions that could result in price spikes for consumers at the
pump. Although imported gasoline could mitigate short-term disruptions
in domestic supply, the fact that imported gasoline comes from farther
away than domestic supply means that when supply disruptions occur in
the United States it might take longer to get replacement gasoline than
if we had spare refining capacity in the United States. This could mean
that gasoline prices remain high until the imported supplies can reach
the market.
Figure 2: U.S. Refinery Capacity and Capacity Utilization, 1970 to
2005:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of EIA data.
[End of figure]
Further, gasoline inventories maintained by refiners or marketers of
gasoline can also have an impact on prices. As have a number of other
industries, the petroleum industry has adopted so-called "just-in-time"
delivery processes to reduce costs leading to a downward trend in the
level of gasoline inventories in the United States. For example, in the
early 1980s U.S. oil companies held stocks of gasoline of about 40 days
of average U.S. consumption, while in 2006 these stocks had decreased
to 23 days of consumption. While lower costs of holding inventories may
reduce gasoline prices, lower levels of inventories may also cause
prices to be more volatile because when a supply disruption occurs,
there are fewer stocks of readily available gasoline to draw from,
putting upward pressure on prices.
Regulatory factors play a role as well. For example, in order to meet
national air quality standards under the Clean Air Act, as amended,
many states have adopted the use of special gasoline blends--so-called
"boutique fuels." As we reported in a recent study, there is a general
consensus that higher costs associated with supplying special gasoline
blends contribute to higher gasoline prices, either because of more
frequent or more severe supply disruptions, or because higher costs are
likely passed on, at least in part, to consumers. Furthermore, changes
in regulatory standards generally make it difficult for firms to
arbitrage across markets because gasoline produced according to one set
of specifications may not meet another area's specifications.
Finally, market consolidation in the U.S. petroleum industry through
mergers can influence the prices of gasoline. Mergers raise concerns
about potential anticompetitive effects because mergers could result in
greater market power for the merged companies, either through
unilateral actions of the merged companies or coordinated interaction
with other companies, potentially allowing them to increase and
maintain prices above competitive levels.[Footnote 5] On the other
hand, mergers could also yield cost savings and efficiency gains, which
could be passed on to consumers through lower prices. Ultimately, the
impact depends on whether the market power or the efficiency effects
dominate.
Mergers in the 1990s Increased Market Concentration and Led to Small
But Significant Increases in Wholesale Gasoline Prices; However the
Impact of More Recent Mergers is Unknown:
During the 1990s, the U.S. petroleum industry experienced a wave of
mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures, several of them between
large oil companies that had previously competed with each other for
the sale of petroleum products.[Footnote 6] More than 2,600 merger
transactions occurred from 1991to 2000 involving all segments of the
U.S. petroleum industry. These mergers contributed to increases in
market concentration in the refining and marketing segments of the U.S.
petroleum industry. Econometric modeling we performed of eight mergers
involving major integrated oil companies that occurred in the 1990s
showed that the majority resulted in small but significant increases in
wholesale gasoline prices. The effects of some of the mergers were
inconclusive, especially for boutique fuels sold in the East Coast and
Gulf Coast regions and in California. While we have not performed
modeling on mergers that occurred since 2000, and thus cannot comment
on any potential effect on wholesale gasoline prices at this time,
these mergers would further increase market concentration nationwide
since there are now fewer oil companies.
Some of the mergers involved large partially or fully vertically
integrated companies that previously competed with each other. For
example, as shown in figure 3, in 1998 British Petroleum (BP) and Amoco
merged to form BPAmoco, which later merged with ARCO, and in 1999
Exxon, the largest U.S. oil company merged with Mobil, the second
largest. Since 2000, we found that at least 8 large mergers have
occurred. Some of these mergers have involved major integrated oil
companies, such as the Chevron-Texaco merger, announced in 2000, to
form ChevronTexaco, which went on to acquire Unocal in 2005. In
addition, Phillips and Tosco announced a merger in 2001 and the
resulting company, Phillips, then merged with Conoco to become
ConocoPhillips. To illustrate the extent of consolidations in the U.S.
oil industry, figure 3 shows that there were 12 integrated and 9 non-
integrated oil companies, but these companies have dwindled to only 8.
Figure 3: Selected Mergers in the U.S. Petroleum Industry, 1996-
2006[Footnote 7a-e]:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO.
[End of figure]
Independent oil companies have also been involved in mergers. For
example, Devon Energy and Ocean Energy, two independent oil producers,
announced a merger in 2003 to become the largest independent oil and
gas producer in the United States at that time. Petroleum industry
officials and experts we contacted cited several reasons for the
industry's wave of mergers since the 1990s, including increasing
growth, diversifying assets, and reducing costs. Economic literature
indicates that enhancing market power is also sometimes a motive for
mergers, which could reduce competition and lead to higher prices.
Ultimately, these reasons mostly relate to companies' desire to
maximize profits or stock values.
Proposed mergers in all industries are generally reviewed by federal
antitrust authorities--including the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and
the Department of Justice (DOJ)--to assess the potential impact on
market competition and consumer prices. According to FTC officials, FTC
generally reviews proposed mergers involving the petroleum industry
because of the agency's expertise in that industry. To help determine
the potential effect of a merger on market competition, FTC evaluates,
among other factors, how the merger would change the level of market
concentration. Conceptually, when market concentration is higher, the
market is less competitive and it is more likely that firms can exert
control over prices.
DOJ and FTC have jointly issued guidelines to measure market
concentration. The scale is divided into three separate categories:
unconcentrated, moderately concentrated, and highly concentrated. The
index of market concentration in refining increased all over the
country during the 1990s, and changed from moderately to highly
concentrated on the East Coast. In wholesale gasoline markets, market
concentration increased throughout the United States between 1994 and
2002. Specifically, 46 states and the District of Columbia had
moderately or highly concentrated markets by 2002, compared to 27 in
1994.
Evidence from various sources indicates that, in addition to increasing
market concentration, mergers also contributed to changes in other
aspects of market structure in the U.S. petroleum industry that affect
competition--specifically, vertical integration and barriers to entry.
However, we could not quantify the extent of these changes because of a
lack of relevant data and lack of consensus on how to appropriately
measure them.
Vertical integration can conceptually have both pro-and anticompetitive
effects. Based on anecdotal evidence and economic analyses by some
industry experts, we determined that a number of mergers that have
occurred since the 1990s have led to greater vertical integration in
the U.S. petroleum industry, especially in the refining and marketing
segment. For example, we identified eight mergers that occurred between
1995 and 2001 that might have enhanced the degree of vertical
integration, particularly in the downstream segment. Furthermore,
mergers involving integrated companies are likely to result in
increased vertical integration because FTC review, which is based on
horizontal merger guidelines, does not focus on vertical integration.
Concerning barriers to entry, our interviews with petroleum industry
officials and experts at the time we did our study provided evidence
that mergers had some impact on the U.S. petroleum industry. Barriers
to entry could have implications for market competition because
companies that operate in concentrated industries with high barriers to
entry are more likely to possess market power. Industry officials
pointed out that large capital requirements and environmental
regulations constitute barriers for potential new entrants into the
U.S. refining business. For example, the officials indicated that a
typical refinery could cost billions of dollars to build and that it
may be difficult to obtain the necessary permits from the relevant
state or local authorities. Furthermore, The FTC has recently indicated
that barriers to entry in the form of high sunk costs and environmental
regulations have become more formidable since the 1980s, as refineries
have become more capital-intensive and the regulations more
restrictive. According to FTC, no new refinery still in operation has
been built in the U.S. since 1976.
To estimate the effect of mergers on wholesale gasoline prices, we
performed econometric modeling on eight mergers that occurred during
the 1990s: Ultramar Diamond Shamrock (UDS)-Total, Tosco-Unocal,
Marathon-Ashland, Shell-Texaco I (Equilon), Shell-Texaco II (Motiva),
BP-Amoco, Exxon-Mobil, and Marathon Ashland Petroleum (MAP)-UDS.
* For the seven mergers that we modeled for conventional gasoline, five
led to increased prices, especially the MAP-UDS and Exxon-Mobil
mergers, where the increases generally exceeded 2 cents per gallon, on
average.
* For the four mergers that we modeled for reformulated gasoline, two-
-Exxon-Mobil and Marathon-Ashland--led to increased prices of about 1
cent per gallon, on average. In contrast, the Shell-Texaco II (Motiva)
merger led to price decreases of less than one-half cent per gallon, on
average, for branded gasoline only.[Footnote 7]
* For the two mergers--Tosco-Unocal and Shell-Texaco I (Equilon)--that
we modeled for gasoline used in California, known as California Air
Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, only the Tosco-Unocal merger led to
price increases. The increases were for branded gasoline only and were
about 7 cents per gallon, on average.
Our analysis shows that wholesale gasoline prices were also affected by
other factors included in the econometric models, including gasoline
inventories relative to demand, supply disruptions in some parts of the
Midwest and the West Coast, and refinery capacity utilization rates.
Concluding Observations:
Our past work has shown that, the price of crude oil is a major
determinant of gasoline prices along with changes in demand for
gasoline. Limited refinery capacity and the lack of spare capacity due
to high refinery capacity utilization rates, decreasing gasoline
inventory levels and the high cost and changes in regulatory standards
also play important roles. In addition, merger activity can influence
gasoline prices. During the 1990s, mergers decreased the number of oil
companies and refiners and our findings suggest that these changes in
the state of competition in the industry caused wholesale prices to
rise. The impact of more recent mergers is unknown. While we have not
performed modeling on mergers that occurred since 2000, and thus cannot
comment on any potential effect on wholesale gasoline prices at this
time, these mergers would further increase market concentration
nationwide since there are now fewer oil companies.
We are currently in the process of studying the effects of the mergers
that have occurred since 2000 on gasoline prices as a follow up to our
previous report on mergers in the 1990s. Also, we are working on a
separate study on issues related to petroleum inventories, refining,
and fuel prices. With these and other related work, we will continue to
provide Congress the information needed to make informed decisions on
gasoline prices that will have far-reaching effects on our economy and
our way of life.
Our analysis of mergers during the 1990s differs from the approach
taken by the FTC in reviewing potential mergers because our analysis
was retrospective in nature--looking at actual prices and estimating
the impacts of individual mergers on those prices--while FTC's review
of mergers takes place necessarily before the mergers, which is
prospective. Going forward, we believe that, in light of our findings,
both prospective and retrospective analyses of the effects of mergers
on gasoline prices are necessary to ensure that consumers are protected
from anticompetitive forces. In addition, we welcome this hearing as an
opportunity for continuing public scrutiny and discourse on this and
the other issues that we have raised here today. We encourage future
independent analysis by the FTC or other parties, and see value in
oversight of the regulatory agencies in carrying out their
responsibilities.
Mr. Chairman, this completes my prepared statement. I would be happy to
respond to any questions you or the other Members of the Committee may
have at this time.
GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments:
For further information about this testimony, please contact me at
(202) 512-2642 (mccoolt@gao.gov) or Mark Gaffigan at (202) 512-3841
(gaffiganm@gao.gov). Godwin Agbara, John Karikari, Robert Marek, and
Mark Metcalfe made key contributions to this testimony.
FOOTNOTES
[1] GAO, Energy Markets: Effects of Mergers and Market Concentration in
the U.S. Petroleum Industry, GAO-04-96 (Washington, D.C.: May 17,
2004); GAO, Motor Fuels: Understanding the Factors That Influence the
Retail Price of Gasoline, GAO-05-525SP (Washington, D.C.: May 2005);
GAO, Energy Markets: Factors Contributing to Higher Gasoline Prices,
GAO-06-412T (Washington D.C.: February 1, 2006).
[2] See, for example, FTC, The Petroleum Industry: Mergers, Structural
Change, and Antitrust Enforcement, An FTC Staff Study, August 2004.
[3] GAO, Motor Fuels: Understanding the Factors That Influence the
Retail Price of Gasoline, GAO-05-525SP, (Washington, D.C.: May 2005).
[4] The ratio of input to capacity measures the rate of utilization.
[5] Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice have defined
market power for a seller as the ability profitably to maintain prices
above competitive levels for a significant period of time.
[6] We refer to all of these transactions as mergers.
[7] a. Marathon and Ashland formed a joint venture called Marathon
Ashland Petroleum that was primarily owned by Marathon Oil (62
percent), which was a wholly owned affiliate of USX Corporation at the
time the joint venture was created. Ashland sold its 38 percent
ownership of the joint venture to Marathon on June 30, 2005.
b. Equilon Enterprises was a 56/44 venture between Shell Oil and
Texaco, respectively, that sold motor gasoline and petroleum products
under both the Shell Texaco brand names. Although not depicted in the
graphic, Motiva Enterprises was a joint venture between Star Enterprise
and Shell Oil that sold gasoline and petroleum products under both the
Shell and Texaco brand names. Motiva is now a 50/50 joint venture
between Saudi Refining and Shell Oil after Texaco sold its ownership to
its partners as a precondition of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission
approving the merger of Chevron and Texaco.
c. El Paso Corporation sold its 16,700-barrels-per-day Chickasaw,
Alabama refinery to Trigeant EP Ltd, in August 2003. El Paso’s
remaining refineries were sold to publicly traded companies at the
times indicated (Sun Company on 01/04 and Valero on 03/04).
d. Clark Refining divested its marketing operations (including the
“Clark” brandname) and renamed itself Premcor in July 1999.
e. Williams Companies sold its Memphis, Tennessee 180,000-barrels-per-
day refinery to Premcor in March 2003.
[8] Unbranded (generic) gasoline is generally priced lower than branded
gasoline, which is marketed under the refiner's trademark.
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