Experts split on interest rate rises

By Steve RandallFont size :

Further interest rate rises may or may not be on the cards in 2017 with no expert consensus as yet.

Following the increase on July 12, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said that further rates would depend on data. The latest retail figures, released by StatsCan last week along with rising inflation have some calling for another rate rise before 2017 ends.

TD Securities’ Fred Demers told Bloomberg that an interest rate hike in October “is a very likely scenario,”
while Benjamin Reitzes of BMO Capital Markets added: “October is still a very reasonable call for the bank.”
CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld is less certain due to the current rise of the loonie, even without support from commodities. He says that the BoC should make clear its policy if the Canadian dollar keeps rising.

“Better for the Bank of Canada to send a signal to markets soon that rate hikes could be deferred if the Canadian dollar extends its run,” Shenfeld wrote in a new report. He added that Governor Poloz could give that assurance following September’s expected hold-steady on interest rates.

Shenfeld also expresses concern about the impact of policy on the housing market, which is already slowing.
“A soft landing that eases Ontario and BC house prices and mortgage growth would be welcome news for macroeconomic stability,” Shefeld says. “But nobody can be too sure of what kind of landing we’re now in.
Better to carefully phase in further changes in rates and regulatory policy to avoid piling on to a market that might be facing a less-than-soft retreat.”

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