PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF THE TRUDOCK CRANE SYSTEM AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (WIPP)

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This probabilistic analysis of WIPP TRUDOCK crane failure is based on two sources of failure data. The source for operator errors is the report by Swain and Guttman, NUREG/CR-1278-F, August 1983. The source for crane cable hook breaks was initially made by WIPP/WID-96- 2196, Rev. O by using relatively old (1970s) U.S. Navy data (NUREG-0612). However, a helpful analysis by R.K. Deremer of PLG guided the authors to values that were more realistic and more conservative, with the recommendation that the crane cable/hook failure rate should be 2.5 x 10-6 per demand. This value was adopted and used. Based on ...
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Description

This probabilistic analysis of WIPP TRUDOCK crane failure is based on two sources of failure data. The source for operator errors is the report by Swain and Guttman, NUREG/CR-1278-F, August 1983. The source for crane cable hook breaks was initially made by WIPP/WID-96- 2196, Rev. O by using relatively old (1970s) U.S. Navy data (NUREG-0612). However, a helpful analysis by R.K. Deremer of PLG guided the authors to values that were more realistic and more conservative, with the recommendation that the crane cable/hook failure rate should be 2.5 x 10-6 per demand. This value was adopted and used. Based on these choices a mean failure rate of 9.70 x 10-3(1/yr) was calculated. However, a mean rate by itself does not reveal the level of confidence to be associated with this number. Guidance to making confidence calculations came from the report by Swain and Guttman, who stated that failure data could be described by lognormal distributions. This is in agreement with the widely use d reports (by DOE and others) NPRD-95 and NPRD-91, on failure data. The calculations of confidence levels showed that the mean failure rate of 9.70x 10-3(1/yr) corresponded to a percentile value of approximately 71; i.e. there is a 71% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 9.70x 10-3(1/yr). One also calculated that there is a 95% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 29.6x 10-3(1/yr). Or, as stated previously, there is a 71% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in 103 years. Also, there is a 95% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in approximately 34 years. It is the responsibility of DOE to select the confidence level at which it desires to operate.

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