Friday, September 29, 2017

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11)Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017 October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South AsiaSummaryBelow normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receivevery little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strongintra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability overthe region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developedthrough an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoonoutlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 toFebruary 2018) will be issued in November 2017.Full Statement in www.vagaries.in

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Now, the low-level circulation seen over W Bay near central-coast Andhra and another weak one seen over N Bay near Bangladesh coast.

At mid,upper-levels East-west wind shear line can be seen from S-coast Karnataka to W Bay to Bangladesh coast.In mid-levels (700hpa) there's a circulation seen over central-coast Andhra same as in 850hpa levels.

During next 2 days, this upper-level East-West shear line is expected to push inland entirely, from S-coast Karnataka to central Chatisgarh.Same is expected over mid-levels also, but it is something like an elongated circulation from S-central Chatisgarh to S-coast Karnataka.

11pm, You can see that the entire zone from S-coast Karnataka to N Bay, S Bangladesh is active .In next 36hrs, again the entire zone from coastal Karnataka to Jharkhand, Bihar, central Bengal and Bangladesh will get scattered T showers

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Today, low-level circulation seen over West Bay near Andhra coast. It is seen as a East-West elongated circulation extending to East Bay.This low-level circulation is expected to persist along S-coast Andhra during next 40hrs.

Upper-level East-West wind shear line is passing thru N-central Kerala to N-central Tamilnadu to zones South of Chennai and upto N Andamans.This East-West wind shear line is also expected to persist for next 42hrs.

Mid-level Anti-cyclone seen over West India signalling that end of #monsoon is very near for N,central,W,NW India.At mid-levels also there's an East-west wind shear line passing thru #Chennai latitude upto East Bay.

This is creating heavy #monsoon rains over most of Andaman Islands.

1:30pm, Satellite IR suggests heavy clouding rainfall in that zone.

A low,mid-level circulation is expected over E,NE Bay in next 36hrs and expected to push to N Bay on 29th.

Today, the low-level circulation is seen over E-central Madhyapradesh and its weak trough seen South upto Telangana, N Andhra.It's upper-level circulation is weak and seen along S Madhyapradesh and adjoining N Maharastra.

During next 3 days, present M.P low-level circulation is expected to drift N and persist weak into S,SW Uttarpradesh on 23/24-Sep.

Today, low,mid-level circulation is over N Bay along S coast Bengal and drifting West into land now.In next 36hrs, this Bay circulation will continue its W,WNW drift move into N Chatisgarh and Jharkhand.This circulation is expected to move NW after Tuesday and models expect the journey towards #Delhi to be slow ! #ALERT

This Bay circulation moving inland can create Flooding rains over central, E-central,East India during next 5 days !

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Yesterday's SE corner Arabian sea circulation is now a weak circulation along S-coast Karnataka.During next 42hrs, this circulation will fizzle and become a low-level trough and persist along Karnataka coast to S Kerala coast.

Already we have a weak circulation over N,NE Maharastra and S Madhyapradesh.

And

Another weak one over N Bay.

On Sunday, the remnant of Typhoon Doksuri "may" push into NE Bay !

The N Maharastra circulation may drift a bit South and persist till Saturday !

The upcoming North Bay circulation may become a Depression and cross Odisha coast on 20/21-Sep !!

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

S,central Kerala is also getting rain now !
More HEAVY rain ahead in next 12hrs for S Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu .

Today's SE corner Arabian sea circulation is expected to make its drive North in next 12hrsAnd, this circulation is expected to push North upto N-coast Karnataka, Goa on Saturday, 16-Sep

Entire Kerala and Karnataka coast to get heavy rain from 14th to Sunday.Westerlies will be back over Tamilnadu and #Chennai from tomorrow, 14th.Scattered T showers over N,N-central Tamilnadu and #Chennai is expected to be back from Friday.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Present low,mid-level circulation over SE-corner Arabian sea is expected to move NNW in next 30 to 42hrs.
Heavy rain ahead for South Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari district) from Wednesday, 13-Sep, Morning/noon.
The circulation "may" intensify slightly and continue upto central/North coast Karnataka on Friday.
As this circulation moves North, the present easterly feel over Chennai and Tamilnadu will end on Thursday.

Today, LWD is seen again over and along W-ghats from NW Maharastra to S-tip Tamilnadu.