Nathan Weiss

Tesla's Best Month Ever In The U.S.: Do Not Get Carried Away [View article]

U.S. deliveries in September were most likely boosted by the factory shutdown and slow ramp when it came back online during the month in August, which certainly resulted in very weak August deliveries, rather than an increase in demand!

The $12 average gas price for the Iowa plants is largely due to several days with $20+ gas prices. Green Plains would stop drying DDGS and reduce operations on those days, assuming their gas supply contracts could even pass along those charges to GPRE.

If GPRE has hedged first quarter margins at $.30 per gallon (a rough estimate), a $10/Mmbtu natural gas price spike (assuming .03 Mmbtu/gallon produced) would wipe out their margins and they would shut down. They would not run with massive negative margins. If anything, GPRE has lost 6-10 days production at three plants.

The quarter to date average for the Northern Iowa Ventura Hub is $11.54/Mmbtu, but if a plant was shut down for the nine days that natural gas was above $20/Mmbtu at the Ventura hub, their first quarter natural gas costs would average $5.93/Mmbtu, up from $3.98/Mmbtu at Ventura in the fourth quarter.

I didnt want to get into this discussion as it is even more controversial, but excluding areas where wind power is a large component of the generation mix (primarily Texas and Iowa), the grid is much 'dirtier' overnight as coal plants require 24 hours to meaningfully change output, making giving them a much higher percentage of the total generation grid overnight as overall demand falls. Send me a pm here and I can forward a couple of studies your way.

Got to love the "do as I say not as I do" mentality of environmentalists... A NASCAR driver kicks off Tesla live, saying she only drives EVs but just ordered her first one, then Elon, who probably flew to the meeting in his private jet, sits at the podium drinking a Fiji water. Ever see the articles on Al Gore's carbon footprint?

SCTY and TSLA are temporary winners in a losing group. How about SOSU, GEGI, KNSC, ERIP, GSLO, PPRW and SOEN. All down more than 50% YTD.

Your statement was: " investments in solar and EVs is more rewarding than investments in fossil fuel."

The Guggenheim/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN) is up 63% YTD, but was down 37% in 2012, 66% in 2011 and 28% in 2010.

The Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN), which has a 10% weight in TSLA, is up 65% YTD, but declined by 3% in 2012 and 41% in 2011.

The largest energy ETF, the XLE, is up 16% YTD and was up in nine of the past ten years.

Keep in mind that TAN is a $143 mln ETF and QCLN in a $58 mln ETF, so being up 65% has created a whopping $78 mln gain for investors, while the 16% gain on the $8.64 bln XLE created $1.38 bln of investor wealth. That sounds more rewarding to me...

The argument that a cleaner grid helps EVs is pretty misguided. Lets create a mythical island where there are 10 cars that use a total of 10 units of energy each year (one each), emitting a total of 10 total units of CO2 (one each). If there are also power plants that produce 10 units of energy each year and emit 12 units of CO2 per year to produce it, there are 20 units of energy created on the island each year producing 22 units of CO2 to do so.

if one of the ten gasoline-powered cars gets destroyed and replaced with an EV, the island's CO2 emissions increase from a total of 22 units to 22.2 units, 9 from gasoline and 13.2 from power plants (ie, the EV results in 20% more CO2 emissions than the gasoline car, not unlike EVs do here in the U.S. - hence the Norwegian study).

If a solar panel system is then installed generating power equal to what the EV uses, the power plant CO2 emissions fall by 1.2 units of CO2, back to 12.0 units - but CO2 emissions from gasoline are now 9 units and thus total CO2 generated by the island is 21 units, down from 22 prior to the EV and solar panels being put into service. The EV is now 'green' right?

No - you could then scrap the EV and buy a new gasoline-powered car but leave the solar panels online, reducing power plant CO2 emissions from 12.0 to to 10.8, but increasing gasoline CO2 emissions from 9 to 10. Total CO2 emissions of the island would be 20.8 - lower than all other scenarios. The reductions in CO2 output come from the solar panel, not the EV!

While 100,000 signatures sounds impressive, that only happened after Tesla got involved by sending out an e-mail to everyone on their distribution...

Also keep in mind the petition ended up with 112,050 signatures, just behind the 129,620 signatures garnered by the “Provide necessary assistance to prevent Taiwanese people from being murdered by Philippines and rebuild friendship” petition. Rather than a show of strength, the Tesla petition shows just how limited their reach truly is.

Julian, I am talking about the Euro NCAP pedestrian safety requirements for vehicle-pedestrian collisions. It appears Tesla had to introduce a new, larger chin lip spoiler as well as soften the hood for compliance.

Q3 2012 - "We could start production of those units sooner than kind of the March, April timeframe next year. But there is not really a need to do that"

December 2012, Model S European Pricing Blog - "We look forward to our first Model S Signature cars arriving in Europe. European left hand drive deliveries are scheduled to begin in late Spring of 2013."

Geneva Auto Show, March 2013 - "European deliveries of Model S electric sedans will start "no later than July" with cars that will be manufactured in June."

Now read the Tesla forum posts by European buyers, being promised August/September deliveries and Tesla's own comments that it takes six weeks to ship and deliver European vehicles.

I wont disclose all my sources (EU crash test info and import/export data), however... But come on Julian, you probably work for Tesla. You should know this stuff! 14 comments on TSLA before noon today, 26 comments yesterday and 36 the day before? Sounds like a full time job to me. It takes me 10 to 15 min to write and edit a good post... 30 posts X 12 min = 6 hours a day...

Q4 2012 - 'will deliver 4,500 Model S sedans in Q1 due to employees having the first week of the year off'Actual Results - Tesla actually delivered 4,900 sedans in Q1

Q1 2012 - 'Plan to build about 5,000 Model S sedans during the second quarter... deliveries will be slightly more than 4,500 to to vehicles expected to be in transit to Europe" and Tesla "feel comfortable raising [2013] guidance to about 21,000 deliveries"Actual Results - TBD

HMGD - Clearly if Elon said so, they will sell a lot more. LEts look at his track record.

Q4 2011 - "Based on delivery of 5,000 Model S sedans, we anticipate full year [2012] revenues of $550 mln to $600 mln.Actual results: 2,670 sedans in 2012 and revenues of $386 mln

Q1 2012 - 'We will deliver in the tens in terms of the number of units in Q2' and 'still guiding for 5,000 deliveries in 2012'Actual Results - 10 Model S sedans sold in Q2Q2 2012 - "Production on plan for 2012 goal of 5,000 deliveries" and "Maintaining revenue guidance of $550 mln to $600 mln" in 2012Actual Results - Elon stated this was a 'soft goal' as Tesla delivers 2,670 sedans in 2012 and revenues of $386 mln

Q2 2012 - "We will not be raising money as... we are fully funded through the Model X"Actual Results - Tesla has since raised >$1.2 bln from stock and convertible bond offerings

Q4 2012 - 'will deliver 4,500 Model S sedans in Q1 due to employees having the first week of the year off'Actual Results - Tesla actually delivered 4,900 sedans in Q1

Q1 2012 - 'Plan to build about 5,000 Model S sedans during the second quarter... deliveries will be slightly more than 4,500 to vehicles expected to be in transit to Europe" and Tesla "feel comfortable raising [2013] guidance to about 21,000 deliveries"Actual Results - TBD

It appears the EU customer cars did not ship in June due to pedestrian crash test concerns, which allowed Tesla to focus more on North America... This should allow them to deliver more then 4,500 sedans (4,750?), but the 21,000 goal... Time will tell.

Would this man, Elon Musk, claim that a Model S can be leased for "about $500 a month" or that the Model S can now be "recharged in about 20 minutes" - leaving the fine print to say that this isnt a full charge. Perhaps he would even call a 120 kWh charger "the fastest charging station on the planet" despite the 400 kWh bus charging stations in use in China (http://bit.ly/17kcAzG).