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Opinion Contributor

Here we go again

Here we go again. As Israelis and Palestinians resume direct peace talks, misinformed pundits and Republicans with an agenda are busy forecasting a Jewish revolt against Democrats in an upcoming election. While a Bill Kristol and Gary Bauer organization runs attack ads against Democrats who “joined an assault on Israel” by signing a letter favoring aid to Gaza, The New York Times’ Charles Blow writes that President Barack Obama isn’t “good for the Jews.” We’ve heard this sort of “oy vey” attack and analysis before. The attacks haven’t worked in the past, and the analysis is still wrong.

In 2004, a minority of vocal Republican Jews argued that President George W. Bush was such a “good friend of Israel” that American Jews would abandon the Democrats to reelect him. John Kerry received 74 percent of the Jewish vote.

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POLITICO 44

In 2008, the argument moved from Republican greatness to Jewish worry over Obama’s “secret Muslim identity” and an anti-Israel vision antithetical to American Jews. The right wing spread vicious e-mail smears through Jewish inboxes everywhere and ran ads conflating Obama with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The return on investment? Obama got 78 percent of the Jewish vote — virtually the same as Al Gore received with an Orthodox Jew on the ticket eight years earlier, when Gore and Joe Lieberman received 79 percent of the Jewish vote.

Now, with midterm elections approaching, the voices proclaiming Jewish revolt are in full force. This time, they say Democrats will lose Jewish support because Obama is unduly pressuring Israel. As usual, these arguments are based on arbitrary quotes from the leaders of lobbying organizations or someone’s Aunt Esther. It ignores the actual data reflecting the opinions of rank-and-file American Jews.

The starting point for separating anecdote from fact is to understand that Israel is not a voting priority for American Jews. In surveys that my firm has conducted for J Street in the 2008 and 2010 election cycles, only 8 percent to 10 percent of Jews cite Israel as one of the top two issues determining their vote. In other words, an overwhelming 90 percent of Jews don’t consider Israel as one of their top two issues.

Readers' Comments (22)

Come on now, the republicans with an agenda are starting rumors. Now there is some news. The GOP (GREEDY OLD POLITICIANS) are like a bunch of teenage girls. You know how you can tell when a republican is lying his or her lips are moving. They changed their battle cry from DRILL, DRILL, DRILL to LIE, LIE, LIE.

This is why we need an Presidential Executive Order mandating "Truth In News And Disseminated Media" no website or radio talkshow or tv program could get a "news" designation unless they continually passed fact checking. Any one who makes their living spreading lies and misinformation can still exert their first amendment right to do so, they just won't be able to hide any more because after each and every station break or commercial break they will have to lead in with something like " this program contains opinions that are not based in fact, this is not a news program. Please enjoy your entertainment."

Mr. Gerstein's essay is insightful and fact-loaded. Sure, the Republicans will lie and try to create more division and hate in their attempts to win Jewish voters. Mainly Republicans are still sore over the last Jewish exodus they witnessed -- the massive exodus out of the Republican Party.

I cannot speak for the other American Jews, but while I voted for Obama in 2008, I have been greatly disappointed in his policies, especially his "throwing Israel under the bus", as another former Obama support and former NYC mayor Ed Koch put it in his article. Oabam visited Egypt and Turkey, toured the mosques and instructed NASA to do a major outreach to Muslims, while he could not find time to visit Israel and gave this major US ally only a lip service, and became "friendlier" only when some major Jewish donors started abandoning the Democratic party when so many of them realized that what Obama was like.

Why would our wonderful Jewish population ever support a Democrat over a Republican. The Republicans are the ones who really support Israel. The Democrats and especially our Man-Child President do not show the same support.

I'm white, on the right, and I don't consider myself a bigot. But if you so-called "Progressives" continue to cast the racist stone at anyone that disagrees with your particular brand of thought, well maybe I could become one. After the congress falls to the Repubs in Nov. and the W.H. in 2012, I can see serious conflict arising. The fringes of both parties have always been loud and boisterous but now the centers are becoming engaged also. All I can say is, Keep your Powder dry boys 'cuz the bad times they are a coming !!!

They keep repeating their love for the Dimocrats and expect that the outcome will be different. That is an act that fits the definition of insanity isn't it? For being some of the smartest people in the world they are sure dumb. An oxymoron situation.

Why do so many people group other people and stereotype them into small boxes? Is it the groups themselves that feel they must agree en masse? Whatever happened to individuality? Or did we all become Borgs and we only have one collective brain?

Pretty much as someone else said to be considered so bright one must wonder why they support the present Democrat Party and the present occupant of the White House???Maybe they should reconsider and maybe so should others about brightness.........

Grab a clue, One Term, they wouldn't. Those of the Jewish persuasion place a heavy emphasis on education; they know our president is neither anti-American or Muslim.

Further, I thought that Republicans were against education in most forms. Aren't they always citing the "elites" and such. Isn't that why Sarah Palin is held in such high regard...b/c of her inablitity to think critically.

Most American Jews (and many Israeli as well- not to mention all the educated Palestinians) are very well educated. They don't buy into these lies told regarding birth certificates, questionable Crhistianity or the like.

In European history, the Court Jews, those Jews who desired power, prestige, and perks from doing the bidding of, and work for, non-Jewish Kings considered themselves separate and above the Jewish masses, and were somewhat disconnected from them, their interests and opinions.

Could any of the Politico articles on Jews, Obama, and the democratic party that I have read be reflective of a modern day example of this? Nah, of course ... not (?)

In any event, the writer lost me when he referred to his work for J Street.

I would point out to him that there seems more condemnation and criticism of J Street from the American Jewish community than any real and discernable support for this organization by the American Jewish Community.

People generally vote the way that they want in the privacy of a polling booth, but consider giving the answer they think a pollster wants when they are asked to participate in polls and surveys.

How you choose to word and present your surveys are also important too.

You want the truth...or the totally biased...Communist Obamamohammed spin???

If truth is your cup of tea...then here it is. www.jewishjournal.com/cover_story/article/the_new_angry_american_jewish_voter_20100810/

"One should not assume that the anger expressed by American voters in recent weeks is somehow limited to a fringe element of this society. While Jews are generally not identified with the Tea Party crowd, there has been a corollary Jewish response these days to the events unfolding in the Middle East and elsewhere. Someone has suggested that this countercultural response could be labeled as a contemporary version of the Maccabees, namely, a revolt against the existing order......."

Actually, I'm a Republican, and I completely agree with the author. Jews will not vote for Republicans in any significant numbers this election, or in any elections. American Jews.... most of them... are wedded to the Democrats. Barack Obama could take a whiz on the wailing wall, and they'd vote for him anyway. Just the way it is. Nothing will change this. Nothing. Not outreach, not support for Israel, nothing. Republicans don't support Israel to get Jewish votes. They support Israel because it's the right thing to do. We know we're not going to get any significant Jewish votes no matter what we do.