The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for January 2005 will be released on 7 March 2005.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

FORTHCOMING CHANGES

New standard errors

A new set of standard errors will apply to sampled estimates in this publication from the February 2005 issue. This is because the sample for short-term movements has been increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors. New standard errors will be presented in the Standard Errors section of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) from the January 2005 issue.

EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami may impact on overseas visitor arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries. However, it is not possible as yet to gauge the magnitude of this impact or its duration. There may also be breaks in some trend series as a result of this event.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for January 2005 (462,100 movements) increased by 1.3% compared with December 2004 (456,300 movements). This followed increases of 1.2% for November and 1.3% for December 2004.

According to trend estimates, this is the eleventh consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.8% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004 (424,900 movements).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2005 (473,900 movements) increased by 4.4% compared with December 2004 (453,900 movements). This followed an increase of 4.5% in November and a decrease of less than one percentage point in December 2004.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 456,900 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - January 2005

Jan 05

Dec 04 to Jan 05

Jan 04 to Jan 05

'000

% change

% change

Trend

462.1

1.3

8.5

Seasonally adjusted

473.9

4.4

. .

Original

456.9

. .

. .

. . not applicable

(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.

(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.

(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.

(d) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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