Wayne Huizenga still can't get his head around it. "I thought if we made 8-8 this year, we would have done well," offered the Miami Dolphins owner after his team beat the New York Jets on Sunday to sew up the AFC East title. "I was trying to be realistic. This is unbelievable."

Seven of the 12 teams involved in this year's play-offs failed to make the cut last time around, but even in that context Miami's resurgence stands out. In 2007 they finished 1-15, and they started 2008 by stumbling out to a 2-4 start. They then won nine of the next 10 to finish 11-5. In doing so the Dolphins became only the second team in NFL history – after the 1999 Indianapolis Colts – to improve their record by 10 wins in the space of a single season. They are the first side ever to post double-digit wins a year after getting just one.

Their quarterback's personal revival is no less remarkable. Playing for the New York Jets last season, Chad Pennington started just eight games and – like the Dolphins – managed only one win. On Wednesday he was named Comeback Player of the Year by the Associated Press after starting every game for Miami and ranking second among all quarterbacks with a passer rating of 97.4.

The Dolphins haven't had a more consistent performer under center since You Know Who. Dan Marino, back in 1997, was the last Miami quarterback to throw for more yards in a season than the 3,653 Pennington managed this year. Even Marino never showed this kind of accuracy. Pennington's 67.4% completion rate is not only the best in the league this season, but the best in Dolphins history. Better yet, Pennington has improved as the season went along, completing 74% of his passes in the last four games of the regular season as he threw for eight touchdowns and just a single interception.

Pennington, of course, has nothing like the arm strength Marino once had; his ability lies in reading a defence and taking advantage of the weak spots rather than launching the ball downfield. At 32 and with a long history of injuries behind him, he is not about to match Marino's greater individual achievements. But as the 13th quarterback to start for the Dolphins since No13 retired nine years ago, Pennington may already have gone further than anyone else in terms of helping Miami realise there can be life at the position after Marino.

"Get hurt and come back," Pennington joked when asked what it had taken to win the award, and avoiding injury has been the greatest challenge throughout his career. Although he has been in the league for nine seasons, this is only the second in which Pennington has managed to start all 16 regular season games. He was named Comeback Player of the Year last time he returned, in 2006, too.

But the Dolphins' turnaround runs a lot deeper than a simple change at the quarterback position. Huizenga's smartest move of the past off-season was not taking a punt on Pennington, who – despite his injuries – was one of the most sought-after quarterbacks in free agency, but rather handing over effective control of football operations to a man he knew would make the right decisions: Bill Parcells.

Even the usually brash linebacker Joey Porter has admitted that players were "nervous" when Parcells first showed up on the sidelines at training in late 2007. Parcells, a two-time Super Bowl winner as head coach of the New York Giants, has a reputation for ruthlessness and he soon showed why. General manager Randy Mueller was fired and replaced by Jeff Ireland, a member of the team's scouting department. Between them, Parcells and Ireland then overhauled the rest of the front office and coaching staff. The team had spent $27m firing coaches before they even began hiring replacements.

The pair chose Dallas Cowboys offensive line coach Tony Sparano to replace head coach Cam Cameron, and it's hard to see how anyone could have achieved more. When the Dolphins started with consecutive defeats, Sparano sparked them to life by unleashing the Wildcat formation – a package in which the center snaps directly to a running back, while the quarterback splits out wide – on offence. The New England Patriots were caught off-guard, giving up four touchdowns on six plays run out of the formation.

Future opponents would be better prepared, but even then the Wildcat could still be effective, giving the Dolphins more opportunities to get the ball in the hands of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Better yet, opponents found themselves devoting significant chunks of their preparation time to a formation that in practice the Dolphins were only actually using six or seven times in an average game.

Whether or not it will be enough to take Miami any further this year remains to be seen. The bookies expect the Dolphins and all three other division winners in action this weekend to lose – despite homefield advantage. The Dolphins are up against a Baltimore Ravens team who already beat them 27-13 in Miami back in week seven, and whose defence – ranked second in the league – held running backs Brown and Williams to a combined 43 yards rushing from 17 carries.

The greater worry for fans is that Parcells has a clause in his contract allowing him to walk away if Huizenga sells the team. The owner has agreed to do just that in the past few days. If real-estate mogul Stephen Ross doesn't do everything in his power to convince Parcells to stay, that really would be unbelievable.

Pick the Play-offs

As promised, we will be having a predictions game into the play-offs, though there will no longer be a weekly prize as there was with Pick Six. From now on it's winner takes all, with a prize only for the blogger who correctly predicts the most games this January (the Super Bowl is the only game not included in the competition, though I will be blogging from Tampa Bay in the week ahead of the game, so you're more than welcome to offer your thoughts then anyway if you want).

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

This will be a tighter game than last time around, and injuries could wind up being the key factor. A number of the Ravens' most important players, including safety Ed Reed, wide receiver Derek Mason and cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Samari Rolle, have missed time in training this week with various ailments. If those players are out on Sunday then Baltimore will be a far less intimidating prospect, but if not I think Baltimore's defence gives them the edge. Ravens to win.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Where the Cardinals have lost four of their past six games – and only won three times all season against opponents from outside the NFC West – the Falcons have only lost twice since the start of November. Falcons running back Michael Turner only seems to get better and should have a field day against a Cardinals' defence which has dropped off badly in recent weeks. But the Cardinals haven't hosted a play-off game since 1947 – back when they played in Chicago – and they will be fired up for this one. Cardinals to win.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers

No matter how poor they have been for long stretches this season, there is no way you can count this Chargers team out now that we're into the play-offs. Their quarterback is the best in the league, statistically speaking, and if LaDainian Tomlinson is healthy then he will cause problems for the league's 24th-ranked run defence. On the other hand, the Colts have won nine straight and have already won here once this season. It's going to be close, but I'll say Chargers to win.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings

Both teams' run defences are among the best in the league and, while Adrian Peterson will almost certainly still find a way to pick up over 100 yards on the ground for the Vikings, there will nevertheless be a huge onus on both quarterbacks to show they can move the ball consistently through the air. With that being the case, I'm going to favour Donovan McNabb over Tarvaris Jackson, though like every other call this weekend, I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. Eagles to win.