Strategist Albert Edwards, Société Générale’s perma-bear, is a happy man. He has unearthed a share price chart that shows Chinese equities, which led the world out of the credit crisis, have topped out. Japan is doing much the same and the US is starting to back track: “Emerging economies such as India and Brazil are also seeing clear warning flags of cyclical caution.”

Equities chart

In the apocalyptic Book of Edwards, we have trudged our way into a post-bubble era where investors will need to track the ups and downs of a turgid economic cycle, to scrape a living. It is possible to make gains in a structural bear market, but you need to get in and out before up and down waves.

How? Edwards says economic strategists hug the consensus and their predictions lag events. He says investors tend to do better by monitoring share price charts. Turning points, such as the ones he has spotted in China and elsewhere, count for much more than the magnitude of momentum swings.

Edwards affectionately calls this phase of the cycle the Ice Age.

And if you want a bit of hard evidence to back up his bearish chart patterns, take a look at new data from the moribund US housing market, which shows that in the month of January mortgage deliquencies rose by a record 0.52% to 5.42% and 15 banks went bust the same month, against six a year ago.