It’s always a sweat with the Dallas
Cowboys, isn’t it? They were 2.5-point road dogs last week against the New York
Giants, and they had the game mostly under control until late in the fourth
quarter, when the Giants tied things up 21-21. That’s when “Mr. Clutch” Tony
Romo methodically drove Dallas 64 yards downfield for the winning Dan Bailey
field goal. Another win for America’s Team.

If it’s Thanksgiving Week, the Cowboys (6-5
SU, 8-3 ATS) must be playing on Thursday. They’ll welcome the Oakland Raiders
(4-7 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) to AT&T Stadium; Oakland is coming off a disappointing
23-19 loss at home to the Tennessee Titans (–2.5), who scored the winning
touchdown from 10 yards out with 10 seconds left on the clock. The Raiders
opened as 10-point road dogs (–130) for this week’s matchup.

Why was Big D getting points from the
G-Men, anyway? Because New York had won four in a row? Because the Cowboys lost
LB Sean Lee in Week 10 and got creamed 49-17 by the New Orleans Saints (–6 at
home)? Not good enough. Dallas was still coming off a bye week, getting somewhat
healthy at just the right time, and there’s still a wide statistical gulf
between these two NFC East rivals.

As long as the NFL betting public is
drinking the haterade, I’m going to keep supporting the Cowboys. They were No.
11 (No. 12 offense, No. 25 defense, No. 2 special teams) on the efficiency
charts through Week 11, and that defense should be more efficient now that DE
DeMarcus Ware, DT Jason Hatcher and safety J.J. Wilcox are all back in the
lineup. Don’t let that 6-5 record fool you – Dallas had 6.6 Estimated Wins
before beating the Giants.

Oakland
Fog

The situation’s much grimmer in Oakland,
although not nearly as grim as people feared going into the 2013 season. The
Raiders are in the AFC West basement, and near the bottom of the efficiency
charts at No. 31 (No. 30 offense, No. 21 defense, No. 28 special teams) through
Week 11, but they’ve also snuck away with the cash in two of their losses and
created a push in a third. Who says the spread doesn’t matter when you’re
picking teams?

The Raiders were expected to compete in the
Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes this year, but their own QBs have spoiled those
plans – provided they existed in the first place. Terrelle Pryor (7.4 yards per
carry) and his dual-threat skills carried Oakland to the pay window before he
hurt his knee in Week 9; now Matt McGloin (88.8 passer rating) is leading the
Raiders offense from the pocket, posting plus-26 passing DYAR in his first two
games.

Did
You Say Pat McGroin?

Very funny. But that’s the way the NFL
betting public thinks. When you have a funny name (that doesn’t also sound cool,
like Barkevious Mingo), people aren’t going to give you the credit you deserve.
If the NFL could engineer its own quarterbacks in a lab – which I’m sure the
league is working on right now – it would give them names like Brock Samson and
Luke Cage.

I don’t think the undervaluing of Mr.
McGloin makes up for the psychological deficit attached to Romo’s name. Plus,
the Raiders lost TE Mychal Rivera (concussion), CB Mike Jenkins (concussion)
and LB Kevin Burnett (bruised quad) in the Titans game. Making the short
turnaround is going to be very difficult for Oakland this week.