2012: warmest and 2nd most extreme year in U.S. history

The contiguous U.S. smashed its record for hottest year on record in 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The annual U.S. average temperature was 3.3°F above the 20th century average, and was an astonishing 1.0°F above the previous record, set in 1998. It is extremely rare for an area the size of the U.S. to break an annual average temperature record by such a large margin. Nineteen states, stretching from Utah to Massachusetts, had annual temperatures which were record warm. An additional 26 states had a top-ten warmest year. Only Georgia (11th warmest year), Oregon (12th warmest), and Washington (30th warmest) had annual temperatures that were not among the ten warmest in their respective period of records. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, of the approximately 5,500 U.S. stations in the NCDC database, 362 recorded their all-time highest temperature during 2012, and none recorded an all-time coldest temperature. This was the most since the infamous Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Approximately 7% of the contiguous U.S. experienced an all-time hottest day during 2012, and every state in the contiguous U.S. except Washington had at least one location experience its warmest year on record. One notable warmest year record occurred in Central Park, in New York City, which has a period of record dating back 136 years.

The 2012 weather was also very dry, and the year ranked as the 15th driest year on record for the contiguous U.S. Wyoming and Nebraska had their driest year on record, and eight other states had top-ten driest years. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought peaked at 61.8% during July. This was the largest monthly drought footprint since the Dust Bowl year of 1939.

Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for U.S. states in 2012. Nineteen states had their warmest year on record, and an additional 26 were top-ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Figure 2. Temperatures for the contiguous U.S. in 2012, compared to the previous record warmest and coldest years in U.S. history. The annual U.S. average temperature was 3.3°F above the 20th century average, and was an astonishing 1.0°F above the previous record, set in 1998. It is extremely rare for an area the size of the U.S. to break an annual average temperature record by such a large margin. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Second most extreme year on recordThe year 2012 was the second most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, plus winds from landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes. The CEI was 39% in 2012, approximately double the average of 20%. The only year that was more extreme since CEI record keeping began in 1910 was 1998--the United States' previous warmest year on record. Since Hurricane Sandy was not considered a hurricane when it came ashore, that storm did not contribute to the 2012 CEI. If one plots up the CEI without using the tropical storm and hurricane indicator, 2012 is the most extreme year on record, beating out 1998, 46% to 42%. During 2012, a record 87% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, crushing the previous record of 62% set in 1934; 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10% in 2012 (2nd highest on record.) The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 34%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme, averaged over the entire year. Heavy 1-day downpours were near average in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.

Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) pegged 2012 as the second most extreme year on record, with 39% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather. This is approximately double the average of 20% (heavy black line.)

A COMMUNITY in Quebec is calling for help to free about 12 killer whales trapped under a vast stretch of sea ice.

Locals in Inukjuak said the mammals had gathered around a car-sized hole in the ice to get oxygen.

Mayor Peter Inukpuk urged the Canadian government on Wednesday to send an icebreaker as soon as possible to crack open the ice and help them find open water.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans said it is sending officials to assess the problem.

"Fisheries and Oceans Canada is assessing the situation and are exploring every possible option, but will only be in a position to determine what - if anything - can be done once our specialists arrive on site," spokesman Frank Stanek said in a statement.

A hunter first spotted the pod of about a dozen trapped whales Tuesday at the hole, which is on the eastern shore of the Hudson Bay. Inukjuak is about 1,500 kilometres north of Montreal.Dozens of villagers made the one-hour snowmobile ride Tuesday to see the unusual spectacle. They snapped photos and shot video footage of the killer whales surfacing in the opening - and even thrusting themselves skyward while gasping for air.

One woman who made the journey to the gap in the ice said even a curious polar bear approached the hole amid the commotion. Siasie Kasudluak said the bear was shot by a local hunter for its meat.

The trapped orcas appeared to be in distress, but locals were ill-equipped to help out.

Kasudluak said the hole appeared to be shrinking in the freezing temperatures. Mayor Peter Inukpuk believes the sudden drop in temperature recently caught the orcas off guard, leaving them boxed in under the ice.

Evening all, afternoon Aussie. A bit wet here in west central Louisiana, with more rain coming down for a while yet. Needless to say we're under a flood warning. It's supposed to stop tomorrow and clear up for a day and a half and then more rain. I may need to get a boat.

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (960 hPa) located at 14.0S 115.8E or 760 km north of Karratha and 900 km north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds=====================25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds=================50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds================150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued moving south southwest overnight and is expected to slowly develop as it continues towards the Northwest Cape. The system has been relocated slightly east based on latest satellite imagery. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area later Friday, then extend west to Exmouth and Ningaloo overnight Friday and Saturday morning. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall possible.

Tropical Cyclone Watch======================A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay

Additional Information======================Position based satellite imagery. System motion has been south southwest overnight night with microwave imagery confirming this. The system has been relocated further east based on the microwave imagery.

Overnight the intensity remained steady or weakened slightly under the influence of moderate shear. Recent Dvorak has been based on embedded centre with DT's of about 4.5. MET also gives 4.5 with a pattern of 4.0. CI has been maintained at 4.5. Intensity has been held at 75 knots to hold the intensity steady even though CIRA and CIMSS AMSU estimates have reduced to about 65 knots [10 minutemean].

Slow but steady development is still expected over the near 48 hours under moderate shear and then plateau.

Motion has been south southwest and should generally continue over the next few days. Numerical weather prediction guidance are reasonably tightly clustered around this track with some being further east and some further west. This takes the cyclone towards the Northwest Cape and is expected to be off the northwest coast by Saturday.

The outermost gales may commence on the western Pilbara coast later Friday. Winds are likely to increase further on Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. A severe tropical cyclone impact on the far west Pilbara coast remains a possibility.

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07F (1005 hPa) located near 22.5S 145.0W is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position fair based on GOES-W visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 26C

Convection has been irregular near the system center for the last 12 hours.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeast with no further intensification.

System #2=========

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08F (1003 hPa) located at 11.8S 178.2W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multi-spectral visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor past 24 hours. Convection persistent to the east of the system center. The system lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it southward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

With that a very late hello and good night as well from abroad. And, above all, stay safe, don't want to miss anybody too soon! Barb

Edit: Follow Grothar, he knows how to become old.

Americans Have Worse Health Than People in Other High-Income Countries

Jan. 9, 2013 %u2014 On average, Americans die sooner and experience higher rates of disease and injury than people in other high-income countries, says a new report from the National Research Council and Institute of Medicine.The report finds that this health disadvantage exists at all ages from birth to age 75 and that even advantaged Americans -- those who have health insurance, college educations, higher incomes, and healthy behaviors -- appear to be sicker than their peers in other rich nations.

Narelle has a good central dense overcast (CDO) on satellite imagery. However, recent microwave imagery reveals that the developing eyewall remains open. This would temporarily slow further intensification of the cyclone. Nonetheless, Naralle should rapidly strengthen in very favorable conditions once its eyewall becomes closed and solidified.

2 Years ago today the 10th of January 2011 is a day many will never forget as a Deadly Destructive Severe Thunderstorm impacted Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley. 35 people died that day.

I can't count on 2 hands how many times I wept for all the people affected, even writing this now is very emotional due to the graphic reminders, Etched forever by Mother Nature.Our deepest sympathies extend out to everyone who lost everything including loved ones... Our deepest thoughts are with all those who were affected, on this the darkest day in South East Queensland's Natural Disaster History.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:over 780 cases have been confirm in toronto as of today as well the number will likly rise in the coming days more so with a mid winter warmup followed by a rtn to winter temps next week

"Confirmed cases" are probably a very low percentage of actual cases as well, since most people won't exhibit symptoms warranting the inconvenience of going to a Dr.

Excerpt: With 20 million-plus inhabitants in the metropolitan area, Mexico City’s water woes are hardly surprising. Every day, the city repairs 50 to 60 broken pipes, says Ramon Aguirre Díaz, director of Mexico City’s water system. There are so many fixes needed that sometimes those repairs, which require the water to be shut off, are made without first notifying residents. On New Year’s Day, the city announced it would suspend water for two days to 126 neighborhoods – including five hospitals – while it did work on pipes delivering potable water from an aqueduct in nearby Mexico State.

While consecutive center-left governments have been lauded internationally for their attention to environmental issues such as reducing traffic and improving air quality in Mexico City, the water issue has largely fallen by the wayside, says Guillermo Velasco, coordinator of environmental studies at the Centro Mario Molina, an environmental research center.

Former Mayor Marcelo Ebrard’s government built a new metro line, added three Bus Rapid Transit lines to the public transportation system – the Metrobus system has cut carbon dioxide emissions by 100,000 tons annually – and launched a bike-share program. “There was a lot of leadership in the environmental sector," says Mr. Velasco. “But on the water issue it was more of the same. New concepts are needed instead of having the idea that everything can be fixed with pipes.”

Mr. Aguirre Díaz, the water system director, concedes as much. He says that, as a government agency subject to political whims, the water department isn’t set up to think long-term. As a result, he says, most large cities decentralize the water department to run as a public, private, or hybrid company – a plan Mexico City is currently contemplating. “There is no long-term solution that can be proposed because administrations change,” Aguirre Díaz says. “Right now it’s a controlled problem and what we need is to prevent a crisis.” Aguirre Díaz defines a “crisis” as a situation in which a drought causes the aquifer that supplies much of the city’s water to run low. If that was to happen, more than 30 percent of the city could go without water, affecting millions.

In the meantime, the city controls the shortages and the repairs and truly drastic measures haven’t been needed – yet.Link

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LA COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS LA AND ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...HELPED ALONG BY WEAKLY ADVANCING OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS LA IS RELATIVELY COOL...A WARM FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SERN LA EXTENDING WWD TO THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE MODIFIED 00Z LIX SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

CELLS OVER THE WATER HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES. AS THESE CELLS CONTINUE NEWD...THEY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WITH A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....ALTHOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE SRH TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:If you have not seen it on the news yet, Boston has declared a Public Health Emergency following the worst United States flu outbreak in over a decade.

Yeah, I have heard about this year and how it has been stronger than usual.

Only thing is, in Nashville, TN, we haven't seen the epidemic yet. There isn't a large number of cases, the ones that we have seen are few and far between. Most get either the cold or winter allergies, I get the allergies.

To me, I haven't gotten the shot in years, and the last time I got the shot, I had the flu that season....

Water use figures are in for Texas:The Grass Is Always Greener…Outdoor Residential Water Use in TexasA study by the Texas Water Development Board concludes “31 percent of annual singlefamily residential water use in Texas is dedicated to outdoor purposes, such as lawn and garden maintenance, pools, and car washing, with the rest used indoors.”

In a Dec. 17 release, the agency stated the findings are based on an analysis of monthly water use data for 259 cities, and that average outdoor water use ranged from 20 to 53 percent of total household water use, with dryer areas of the state tending to use more than wetter areas. From Ed Sterling's Capital Highlights/Jasper Newsboy

Quoting MAweatherboy1:My mom works at a hospital near Boston, she says she's never seen anything like this outbreak, it's really awful up here.

Today a fourth kid (14 year old male) died from the flu in Michigan. It is being labeled one of the worst outbreaks in years. Some schools have had to close or came close to having to close because so many kids were sick.

On a much brighter note, it has been getting increasingly warm up here. Highs topped a couple degrees below 50F in most spots today. The rest of the week and weekend will warm up even more before a cold front comes through. It will be wet with a good amount of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY953 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013 THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLEOF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAYAND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AREFAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIALOSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THISWINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATICWEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERICPOLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THESTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVERTHE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.

THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDEBLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTOTHE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHOUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSOFAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKEPLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOWLONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR ATLEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OFWINTER.

AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFSENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFICNORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THENEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THEWESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OFTHE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD.

WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TOHIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FORTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OFJANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLYFEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN INAT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THISWILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITHSYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

Seems to me that cold phase PDO is keeping the el ninos from forming or being as strong as they could be. That's decentralizing the heat out to the US and Australia... and building up TCHP in the WPac and GoM...

So going into a neutral phase again this year could bring some more whoppers this year, either in size or intensity.

I wish we had better modelling / forecasting for NAO/AO that would give a realistic idea of MSLP highs for the season.

We only fish at night, Baha. We target the Yellowtail Snapper. We have certain banks that we fish and only at night. If we did it during the day then our bait would attract the fish that we don't want. We usually leave about 5:30 in the evening and aren't usually back on island until about 3:00 in the morning.

Yellowtail are also too skittish to catch during the day. Even a cloud will scare them away.

Lindy

Yellowtail Snapper in my opinion ,are the best. The Florida keys restaurants exclusively have this fish as the premier meal.

Quoting BahaHurican: I'm quite familiar with yellowtail... one of my favorite snappers to eat. My dad says they'll bite anytime, so long as you have the right bait, but they are easier to catch at night. Maybe the Caribbean cousins live different from the Bahamian cousins.

All I know is they never bite MY line... ;o)

They've been doing a Yellowtail study over here, trying to figure out the migratory patterns of the Yellowtail. If my memory serves me right, the Bahamas are also involved in the study too. I'll have to find out.

We only fish at night, Baha. We target the Yellowtail Snapper. We have certain banks that we fish and only at night. If we did it during the day then our bait would attract the fish that we don't want. We usually leave about 5:30 in the evening and aren't usually back on island until about 3:00 in the morning.

Yellowtail are also too skittish to catch during the day. Even a cloud will scare them away.

Lindy

I'm quite familiar with yellowtail... one of my favorite snappers to eat. My dad says they'll bite anytime, so long as you have the right bait, but they are easier to catch at night. Maybe the Caribbean cousins live different from the Bahamian cousins.

Yes, back to weather! *lol* We've gotten off to easy these last years, haven't we?

Lindy

The only thing I will say for now is if ENSO is between Neutral and La Nina,then the NE Caribbean may have an unwelcome visitor or two to the area. Let's see how things evolve with the many factors apart from ENSO in the next 142 days.

We only fish at night, Baha. We target the Yellowtail Snapper. We have certain banks that we fish and only at night. If we did it during the day then our bait would attract the fish that we don't want. We usually leave about 5:30 in the evening and aren't usually back on island until about 3:00 in the morning.

Yellowtail are also too skittish to catch during the day. Even a cloud will scare them away.

Lindy

Very interesting ...dont think that I've ever heard from a fisherwoman before

We only fish at night, Baha. We target the Yellowtail Snapper. We have certain banks that we fish and only at night. If we did it during the day then our bait would attract the fish that we don't want. We usually leave about 5:30 in the evening and aren't usually back on island until about 3:00 in the morning.

Yellowtail are also too skittish to catch during the day. Even a cloud will scare them away.