@Aaarrrgg: Why vote for Rag over Rubrik? Rag at least made some attempt at analysis (and has done more since), whereas Rubrik has offered nothing to the game but a single, dangerous moment of outright bandwagoning.

Dreven wrote:

Even if you take KoD trying to be mafia as a given thats no indication that he is mafia...

Either you mean that KoD trying to become mafia does not guarantee that he will receive a mafia role, which is literally a position of the post that you are 'arguing' with; or else you are suggesting that accumulating mafia points does not influence the likelihood of a player being mafia, which is absolutely (and verifiably) false.

Quote:

...or [gives no indication that he] is more likely to be mafia.

This is incorrect, as per the game rules of the setup thread. Did you misread the rules, or are you intentionally trying to obfuscate matters?

Quote:

No my argument is that discussing the french monarch is irrelevant when the discussion is about the bowel movements of penguins.

Insofar as you were whispering with a seat-mate and forgot that you were in a history lecture, then sure.

In that case, then you are right wrt to more mafia points increasing the likelyhood of being mafia. Wrapping this back around to Dusky's comment towards JD, and taking into account the whole terminology with Sky from earlier, it comes back to the point they were making that if the argument is (strictly) that I am more likely to be mafia because I tend towards a more points, then yes.

Now are we all done with the back and forth over the validity of the what-if scenario and other fluff? Because rehashing the argument again will get you nowhere.

Fact of the matter is Neo stated a role ability, that he used on me, that indicates his target is more likely to be mafia. I believe (note: I'm recalling, but not asserting) that he stated this was due to him knowing how many points I have (not total points, but the sum points of my choices). At the end of the day his argument is boiling down to this: my role indicates KoD is more likely to be mafia, therefore KoD is more likely than most to be mafia (thus why he is comfortable with keeping his vote on me).

This is incorrect, as per the game rules of the setup thread. Did you misread the rules, or are you intentionally trying to obfuscate matters?

If it is anything like I did, it would be just missing it entirely. Rag bringing that up from the set up thread showed me something I missed.

The only thing it changes is that the validity of your constructed argument is true. Neo's original argument was not (and that is something I will maintain due to how the entire conversation progressed).

As for analyzing, it changes nothing in the stances wrt to the game. If it does, I'm all ears.

@sky: If I'm reading the rules correctly, getting the majority of votes is an instant lynch. That means Rag put KoD at lynch-1 with flimsy reasoning, in the middle of arguments that could actually provide information. That is more dangerous than Rubik's dumb wagon vote, but I'm not planning to let either of them off the hook.

@Rag: I already explained why I don't like Neo's claim, but the sorry story is that the way he explained it makes it sound like a really weak ability, and I'm having trouble even parsing how it could possibly work. And if it does work the way I think it does, it seems useless. So I think it's a fake claim. Which should be lynched. Otherwise, it's just an investigation claim, and investigators should be lynched for confirmation, so that fake cops don't clog up analysis too much. Normally I would like to see at least a second result before that Lynch, but the ridiculous claim included a "not every night"-clause (iirc, don't have it in front of me), so there's no telling when that second result could show up. This all adds up to a situation where a scum Neo could be really dangerous, while a town Neo might not be much more valuable alive than he is dead.

@Argh - that's terrible logic IMO.Either you believe my claim for now, and we see how KoD flips, or, if you don't believe me, you can lynch me, and see how I flip, and then use that to determine how to move forward. Why does it seem like a fake claim to you? I have an ability to learn if the person was one of the top 2 likely to be mafia, one of the least 2 likely to be mafia, or neither. But I can't use it every night. I tried to disguise how I came to vote on KoD, which was clearly a mistake, so I claimed to explain my logic, so, if you all don't believe me and I get lynched, at least I've passed along what info I do have to the rest of town.

It's probably worth noting that, according to the set-up thread rules, the last players to be given roles receive a Night 0 action. So the part of Neo's claim that involves non-repeatability isn't inherently strange in the context of this game.

Sure, points aren't the only factor in the calculation, but it seemed very clear from the instructions that more points = higher chance to be mafia.

That's an assumption. What we have been repeatedly been told is that the sum affects our likeliness of being mafia. It's never been expressly stated that a higher value is more of a chance or that points directly correlate into an equivalent amount of tickets in the original case. So the point of this argument is that without that expressly stated information one could easily assume wrong and unsuccessfully try to force their alignment. Trying alone doesn't make one more likely to be scum.

_________________

And lo, through the Dusk came the Lady of Blue illuminated by the Flame of Light. Our savior from the Dark. Give yourself, your life onto the Dusk and unto the Light.

There's more of a problem with what you've done (and with what you're saying) Neo than you are either letting on or realize.

The most obvious is that your ability, as *you* stated it, tells you that I am more likely to be mafia. It doesn't mean I am. I shouldn't have to say this, but you're not a cop. You didn't cop that I *am* mafia. You only "copped" that I am likely to be mafia.

Next, despite knowing how your ability worked, you approached me as though I am mafia (despite having no concrete proof that I *am* mafia; only proof that I am *likely* to be mafia, and that's not saying a lot). You've just said that you made a mistake in how you tried to "disguise" your vote on me (fine, w/e there), but what about what came shortly after that initial conversation? You clearly stated you were looking to see my reaction, and that my reaction to you helped convince you of my mafianess (a reaction to what you clearly called a mistake on your own part).

To be concise and to the point, you are going off of nothing except a likely *chance* (provided by your ability) that I am mafia while also not properly taking into account your interaction with me.

If I flip mafia (and I won't), then none of this matters; however, should I flip town there are a variety of ways it could play out such as you claiming something to the effect of not knowing for sure if I was mafia as a defense. Moreover though, what you're establishing here is a strict "you vs me" scenario. You're essentially painting that you and I can't be the same alignment; that one flipping as town/mafia means the other has to be the opposite.

Sure, points aren't the only factor in the calculation, but it seemed very clear from the instructions that more points = higher chance to be mafia.

That's an assumption. What we have been repeatedly been told is that the sum affects our likeliness of being mafia. It's never been expressly stated that a higher value is more of a chance or that points directly correlate into an equivalent amount of tickets in the original case. So the point of this argument is that without that expressly stated information one could easily assume wrong and unsuccessfully try to force their alignment. Trying alone doesn't make one more likely to be scum.

I feel like that goes against what HW was trying to pass off to everyone else. That being said, you're certainly not wrong as I have made a similar assumption in my mind once I read what was provided from the setup thread.

Sure, points aren't the only factor in the calculation, but it seemed very clear from the instructions that more points = higher chance to be mafia.

That's an assumption. What we have been repeatedly been told is that the sum affects our likeliness of being mafia. It's never been expressly stated that a higher value is more of a chance or that points directly correlate into an equivalent amount of tickets in the original case. So the point of this argument is that without that expressly stated information one could easily assume wrong and unsuccessfully try to force their alignment. Trying alone doesn't make one more likely to be scum.

Well, given that the points convert into tickets that go into a mafia draw, and the points are called mafia points, and looking back at my role pm and seeing which types of role get mafia points and don't, it seems like a pretty good assumption.

I usually learn best by doing. After a few iterations, I get a feel for the frame I'm in, then I test it.

And no, Dusky, that isn't a good assumption. I already indicated previously about what types of values I had (not in great detail, but I did mention). Two of the options are the same (vanilla options) but hold vastly different values (one being zero the other being 15).

Honestly though, I don't see much practicality to arguing the semantics of this, unless the goal is to prove one side over the other (on the argument about likelihood being mafia being valid wrt to points) or to underscore the point Neo already made by claiming.

Anyway, since Neo did indicate his ability tells him one of three things, I would have to assume he doesn't know my point value (moot since I claimed it already). With that in mind, should no two others have higher than me, then the point should stand that more points means more likely to be mafia (again, based on Neo's ability).

But am I mafia, Dusky? Or is the chance I am sufficiently enough for you?

@Neo: I don't think there was anything won't with my logic as such, but now I'm starting to understand how your ability works, so that lowers your position on my target list. Lynching people who claim investigator is good practice, though, as long as the claim isn't either in lylo out backed up by other evidence. Your claim was super early and with no way to confirm it, and as such I would Lynch you over KoD every time.

But right now I'd rather Lynch Rag. Or maybe Rubik. And I am still keeping an eye on Skystone. So you don't have to worry about me for a while.

If I flip mafia (and I won't), then none of this matters; however, should I flip town there are a variety of ways it could play out such as you claiming something to the effect of not knowing for sure if I was mafia as a defense. Moreover though, what you're establishing here is a strict "you vs me" scenario. You're essentially painting that you and I can't be the same alignment; that one flipping as town/mafia means the other has to be the opposite.

I must be having a different discussion than you are. I've never defined a "you vs me" scenario, nor have I said anything that you and I can't be on the same team.I'm only saying that, as I've learned through my ability, you were one of the two most likely players to be scum. Clearly, this is not a cop ability, I am not saying now, nor have I said, that you are scum. Just that, between my ability, and your scramble to defect and confuse everyone, that you are clearly the most likely to flip scum.

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