Warm, dry winter on the way, bureau says

Peter Hannam

The entire Australian continent is likely to have a warmer-than-average winter and all but the eastern half of Tasmania is likely to get average or sub-par rainfall, according to the latest seasonal outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology.

If accurate, the predictions for the June-August period indicate the general drying out underway over south-eastern Australia in recent months will be extended. Much of the region has also experienced record late-season warmth with a slew of autumn records tumbling.

Nationally, the chance of a warmer-than-normal winter is greater than 60 per cent for both maximum and minimum temperatures.

Maximum temperatures likely to be on the warm side nationwide. Photo: BoM

For all of Tasmania, most of Victoria and south-western Western Australia, the probability rises to at least 80 per cent, with only a slightly lower prediction for maximum temperatures in NSW.

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"“It’s definitely very warm right over the continent,” said Andrew Watkins, manager of the bureau’s climate prediction services.

NSW also has a 60 per cent chance of lower-than-average winter rainfall, with a swathe across the state’s centre rated at 70 per cent. Most of Victoria is also likely to have less-than-usual rainfall, as is the entire southern mainland, the bureau said.

Minimum temperatures also tipped to be warmer than usual nationwide. Photo: BoM

A key influence in the warmer, drier conditions is the El Nino weather pattern now forming in the Pacific. While bureau climatologists have stressed an El Nino event is not yet certain, they note conditions similar to one – such as unusually warm, dry weather - are already evident across much of Australia.

“Just because we haven’t reached an El Nino, it doesn’t mean you can’t start to see some impact," Dr Watkins said. "It’s not like flicking a switch when you hit a magic number.”

During El Nino years, the eastern Pacific warms, reducing the temperature difference with western parts of the ocean. Easterly trade winds slow or reverse and rainfall tends to shift away from eastern Australia, leading to hot, dry years and often active bushfire seasons.

Drier conditions are likely for almost all of Australia. Photo: BoM

Max Gonzalez, a senior meteorologist with Weatherzone, said the drier conditions would likely increase the number of frosty days for inland region with fewer cloudy days. A busy fire season may also be expected if conditions turn out as expected to be warmer than normal.

"As we approach the fire season, it tends to actually bring it forward because there hasn’t been enough rain, and the temperatures are warmer," he said. "January and February will be the ones to keep an eye on for Victoria, Tasmania, and late spring for NSW."

Record autumn

South-eastern Australia is likely to record one of its warmest autumns on record, while Australia-wide it will be in the top three, Mr Gonzalez said.

Sydney, in particular, is likely to have a maximum temperature of 24 degrees on Wednesday, notching its 12th day in a row of a warm spell that is smashing records for late-season warmth. It is also the longest heatwave – as measured by a departure from normal temperatures – for any time of the year.

Mr Gonzalez said there's no indication of significant cooling at least, for the near term, at least for NSW.

"We're definitely not going to see any real cooling, up until about mid-June...when we could see the next vigorous system come through," he said.

That system could bring snow for the Alps - but too late for the official opening of the ski season on the Queen's Birthday weekend.

Adelaide and Hobart are other cities to set late-season warmth records in May, while Melbourne had its longest run of days of at least 20 degrees this late in the year.