Numbers crunch: USC-Oregon

By any statistical measure, including its 1-14 record in the Pac-12, USC is a bad team. That’s why it’s tempting to chalk up a win for Oregon today and look ahead to home games next week against Arizona State and Arizona.

Before you dismiss the Trojans completely, its worth noting that they’ve played better since their only conference victory, a 77-69 upset of Cal on Jan. 22.

USC has lost nine straight games since then, but six of those losses were decided by 10 points or less. That’s not a lot to brag about, but after the Trojans lost their first five Pac-12 games by an average of 22 points, it’s something.

Here are some key numbers for today’s game.

Can Oregon force at least 15 turnovers? USC commits a turnover one out of every five times down the court, the worst rate in the Pac-12. Oregon’s press has been effective, especially against the Trojans, who had 22 turnovers in a 72-possession game in Eugene.

We’ll see how much Oregon wants to press two days after a double-overtime game, but it’s a good weapon to have against the Trojans.

Can Oregon grab 10 offensive rebounds? Despite having two 7-footers, including 7-foot-2 center Omar Oraby, USC struggles on the defensive glass. Opponents are rebounding a third of their misses against the Trojans, and Oregon is an above-average team on the offensive glass.

Will USC make more than five three-pointers? That’s happened only once in Pac-12 play, when the Trojans went 8-for-24 in a loss to UCLA. USC is a dreadful three-point shooting team with a percentage (.283) that ranks 346th out of 351 Division I teams. If you’re Oregon, you want the Trojans shooting jumpers instead of scoring in the paint.

Austin Meek came to The Register-Guard via The Topeka Capital-Journal and Kansas City, Mo., home of the Chiefs, Royals and America's best barbecue. Now he covers the Ducks in TrackTown USA, but any subject is fair game. Follow Austin on Twitter @austinmeekRG or send him an email.