Monday, June 4, 2012

NJ Primary Day Outlook

New Jersey primary day is upon us. There is no significant, over-arching story here. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just making up things.

Expect a little over 400,000 voters to show up. That’s less than 10% of eligible voters. Or about 15% if you just count registered Democrats and Republicans. This turnout level has been typical for the past decade or so. [One exception: the February 2008 Presidential primary turnout of more than a third of New Jersey’s electorate.]

So with nothing driving a statewide narrative, let’s go to the play-by-play.

CD9 DEMThe Bergen-Passaic Smackdown. Early
money gave the edge to Steve Rothman because more voters in this
newly-redrawn district knew him as their incumbent Congressman. But the tide has shifted over the past couple of weeks. Rothman launched an attack on Bill Pascrell’s “progressive” credentials. And then kept piling on. Democratic
primary voters predisposed to identify with Rothman’s strident ideology
grew a little uneasy with his relentless assault against a fellow
Democrat. That tinge of doubt was enough to provide Pascrell an opening. And he was handed the golden ticket of a Bill Clinton endorsement. There are only two people who could possibly sway on-the-fence Democratic primary voters and they are Presidents # 42 and 44. Bottom
line: a photo op in the White House with the incumbent (or the
endorsement of a surrogate) is no match for the full-throated support of
a Democratic Party Goliath. Winner: Pascrell

CD10 DEMWhat
could have, and perhaps should have, been a wide open race to fill the
seat of deceased Congressman Donald Payne ended up being an endorsement
of his legacy – in the form of Donald Payne, Jr. – by most of the party
faithful in Essex County. Most, but not all. Newark Councilman Ron Rice is a tenacious campaigner. Importantly,
he claims support from the CWA and the SEIU – two unions who can be
counted on to actually put feet on the street for GOTV. If it were just a race between these two, I might give the edge to Rice. However,
the presence of State Senator Nia Gill (who has the line in a divided
Hudson County) and Irvington Mayor Wayne Smith, along with two other
candidates, will serve to split the “anti-legacy” vote. Rice will take a fair share of the Newark vote and do well in the Union County portion of the district, but will come up short. Winner: Payne (in a close contest)

CD6 GOP
2010 nominee Anna Little hopes lightning strikes twice and she knocks
off the Monmouth County organization’s preferred candidate – this time,
Ernesto Cullari. But it just ain’t gonna happen. It’s not because the party has gotten any better at GOTV. Fewer
than 14,000 Republicans voted in the last primary – and the only reason
more will vote this year is that native son Joe Kyrillos is running for
Senate. The bigger issue is that some of Little’s key supporters have fallen out with her since the last race. Winner: Cullari

CD7 GOP Conservative David Larsen is taking another crack at incumbent Leonard Lance. Larsen has positioned himself as a true Reagan conservative. Lance counters that Larsen didn’t even vote in the 1980 and 1984 Presidential elections. Larsen fell 8,000 votes short two years ago and will do the same this time around. Winner: Lance

Other Races
Incumbents Rob Andrews (D1), Frank LoBiondo (R2), Chris Smith (R4),
Scott Garrett (R5), and Albio Sires (D8) have token opposition. State
legislator Joe Kyrillos is facing three un-funded opponents in his bid
for the GOP nomination to take on incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez. The party line picks will win easily in all those contests.

There
are also battles to tilt at windmills – I mean, take on the incumbent
from 3 Democrats in CD2, 3 Democrats in CD5, and 3 Republicans in CD9. I
don’t have any picks in those races, but it’s worth noting that one of
the candidates is running under the slogan, “My Shelter Dog’s Name is
Roscoe.”

There are also state legislative primaries in two seats. Assemblywoman Betty DeCroce (R26), who was appointed to fill her late husband’s seat, faces a challenge from Anthony Pio Costa. DeCroce should win easily on name recognition alone.

The more interesting – interesting being a relative term here – primary is in the 16th District. Democrats
Marie Corfield and Sue Nemeth are battling it out to take on incumbent
Assemblywoman Donna Simon, who was picked to fill the late Peter
Biondi’s seat when he died shortly after the 2011 election. Corfield
– a teacher whose prior claim to fame was as the foil in one of Gov.
Christie’s ubiquitous You-Tube moments – ran in that prior election and
made a tight race out of what was expected to be an easy Republican win. Princeton
Councilwoman Nemeth claims to have a good ground game, but it will be
difficult to overcome the fact that Corfield has the party line in 3 out
of the district’s 4 counties.

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About Me

is the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. Established in 2005, the institute has become a premier independent survey research center known for its in-depth tracking of public policy and quality of life issues. Murray was named "Pollster of the Year" by PolitickerNJ.com and one of the 100 most influential people in New Jersey politics.

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