Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Big Kahuna: 2016 Boston Marathon Analysis

Boston. The raison d'etre of this blog.

This is the only time in my life that (a) I have purchased all my photos (though I must note that I waited a couple weeks and they sent out a 50% off coupon), and (b) I threw my hands up and felt pure joy crossing that finish line. I loved it so much I told myself I have to run it as many times as I can qualify (though I'm sure nothing is like your first Boston).

The bummer for many of us was the heat that day. I was a 8 minutes off my goal. Thus why I am running Mountains 2 Beach in less than a week's time.

The silver lining to the heat is what you'll see below.

Let's start by saying that the number of Boston qualifiers in the 2015 race was 12770.

In 2016 it was only 8994.

AG Group

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

2016 Qualifiers

2016 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

1850

4144

44.64%

1320

4068

32.45%

F35-39

902

1860

48.49%

669

1878

35.62%

F40-44

912

1984

45.97%

670

1938

34.57%

F45-49

958

1832

52.29%

744

1901

39.14%

F50-54

609

1206

50.50%

495

1254

39.47%

F55-59

306

607

50.41%

227

650

34.92%

F60-64

145

270

53.70%

141

345

40.87%

F65-69

42

91

46.15%

44

101

43.56%

F70-74

11

20

55.00%

6

27

22.22%

F75-79

2

2

100.00%

0

1

0.00%

F80+

0

1

0.00%

1

2

50.00%

M18-34

1673

3215

52.04%

1032

3041

33.94%

M35-39

895

1749

51.17%

523

1764

29.65%

M40-44

1005

2109

47.65%

640

1994

32.10%

M45-49

1251

2485

50.34%

840

2504

33.55%

M50-54

907

2055

44.14%

635

2032

31.25%

M55-59

667

1498

44.53%

471

1563

30.13%

M60-64

392

898

43.65%

328

993

33.03%

M65-69

175

403

43.42%

156

421

37.05%

M70-74

50

123

40.65%

33

118

27.97%

M75-79

15

36

41.67%

15

33

45.45%

M80+

3

10

30.00%

4

5

80.00%

Totals

12770

26598

48.01%

8994

26633

33.77%

I had to do a double take at the percentage of qualifiers (since most races we've analyzed are around the 10% mark) then realized, I was looking at Boston where the majority of the runners have qualified to get there. But that drop in qualification rate is very significant.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

546

4.28%

469

5.21%

1-2 minutes

610

4.78%

497

5.53%

2-3 minutes

648

5.07%

487

5.41%

3-4 minutes

626

4.90%

462

5.14%

4-5 minutes

589

4.61%

464

5.16%

5-10 minutes

2810

22.00%

2061

22.92%

10-20 minutes

4026

31.53%

2747

30.54%

20> minutes

2915

22.83%

1807

20.09%

Totals

12770

8994

2015 Squeaker Pack: 23.64%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 26.45%

On to the totals...

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

20156 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

4677

38218

12.24%

3960

36770

10.77%

F35-39

2117

15147

13.98%

1914

15096

12.68%

F40-44

2120

14500

14.62%

1816

14011

12.96%

F45-49

2148

10511

20.44%

1907

10847

17.58%

F50-54

1331

6878

19.35%

1280

7226

17.71%

F55-59

695

3471

20.02%

607

3474

17.47%

F60-64

313

1438

21.77%

322

1542

20.88%

F65-69

91

450

20.22%

103

491

20.98%

F70-74

21

129

16.28%

19

150

12.67%

F75-79

3

26

11.54%

1

21

4.76%

F80+

1

4

25.00%

4

10

40.00%

M18-34

4177

34108

12.25%

3382

32205

10.50%

M35-39

2103

17978

11.70%

1747

17305

10.10%

M40-44

2374

19559

12.14%

2005

18428

10.88%

M45-49

2901

16573

17.50%

2404

16482

14.59%

M50-54

2222

13003

17.09%

1855

12950

14.32%

M55-59

1460

7880

18.53%

1302

8196

15.89%

M60-64

876

4205

20.83%

861

4326

19.90%

M65-69

388

1743

22.26%

370

1842

20.09%

M70-74

117

589

19.86%

93

586

15.87%

M75-79

25

158

15.82%

30

169

17.75%

M80+

5

36

13.89%

9

40

22.50%

Totals

30165

206604

14.60%

25991

202167

12.86%

Boston 2016 hacked down the overall percentage. We have an 11.95% decrease in rate of qualification.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

1652

5.48%

1472

5.66%

1-2 minutes

1633

5.41%

1474

5.67%

2-3 minutes

1639

5.43%

1365

5.25%

3-4 minutes

1489

4.94%

1284

4.94%

4-5 minutes

1411

4.68%

1187

4.57%

5-10 minutes

6332

20.99%

5513

21.21%

10-20 minutes

8568

28.40%

7306

28.11%

20> minutes

7441

24.67%

6390

24.59%

Totals

30165

25991

2016 Squeaker Pack: 25.94%
2017 Squeaker Pack: 26.09%

Check it out, even the Squeaker Pack got bigger.

So, what does this mean for the cutoff.

Honestly, I had to check and recheck my query because I didn't believe it.

For the 2016 qualification year, the number of runners in the races we've analyzed that achieved 2:28 or better is 26083.

That alone should tell you what you're about to read.

If you look at the table above, the total number of qualifiers thus far or 2017 is 25991.

Because Berlin's data is not complete and also, it doesn't seem to be a great indicator of participation, I am thinking of doing one or two more in place of it. At some point I'll ask for suggestions. I'm thinking Eugene is a good one.

Runners who did not re-qualify at Boston 2016 will have another opportunity to do so until at least mid-September. How many of them that actually do so will impact the cut-off, but this is a variable that cannot be captured in any analysis. If there are enough successful re-attempts, there likely will be a cut-off, but much less stringent than last year.

Yep. We have 8 more feeders to analyze. A good chunk of the re-attempters will be in those feeders. Myself included. So we will be able to capture that in the future analysis. If there are large chunks of runners re-attempting at small races, that we won't be able to see however I am doubtful lots of folks are running marathons to BQ in mid-summer. The only ones I can see as having impact are the smaller last-chance races.

Hi! My friends and I love your work and I have bookmarked you blog already because it inspires us and gives us hope especially now with your latest post. Keep up the good work and good luck in your next race :)

Bay shore, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Vermont is going to be hot and humid this weekend. Most Boston runners who miss BQ at Boston will try again this weekend due to memorial day and last chance before "it gets hot". Seem like you have chosen the correct race to run at M2B. Good luck.

I have been hearing that it's going to be hot in the midwest and back east. I chose this M2B only because of geography! I'll be in the 60s at the finish, is my guess. Not ideal but will still be better than even Boston. Hoping this time I have a chance.

And also, I think this means that reattempts are not going to go that well for these other races which will likely keep the cutoff down.