03/29/2015

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A shower can't be ruled out this evening as a cold front crosses the area. Otherwise, skies should be mainly clear. Cooler air arrives as the wind shifts to the north and diminishes overnight. Temperatures fall into the lower 40s by daybreak (30s rural areas). Tomorrow will be cooler, but you can expect to see plenty of sunshine through the day. Afternoon highs climb into the lower 60s.

FRIDAY: Sky conditions will likely vary from partly to mostly cloudy. While some passing showers can't be ruled out during the day, the best chance of any significant rain will hold off until after dark. This will be our warmest day of the week with highs reaching the upper 70s. Once a cold front approaches Friday night, scattered showers are likely with a thunderstorm possible.

SATURDAY: Some showers may linger early in the day, then skies should become mostly sunny from west to east. Temperatures will be cooler, but pleasant with afternoon highs in the mid 60s.

03/27/2015

It's a harbinger of Spring and a Richmond tradition! The Monument Avenue 10K will take place tomorrow morning. If you've participated in the past, you know that we've had warmer years, colder years, and wetter years. (How about last year?! Remember that soaker?!)

So, of course, we had to crunch the numbers. Which years were the coldest? Warmest? Wettest?

How will tomorrow's forecast compare to years past? If our forecast overnight low of 32° verifies, tomorrow's Monument Avenue 10K will be the second coldest in the history of the race. We may see a stray area of light rain or a few flurries at the start of the race but clouds should break up through the morning, and most of the race will be dry. By the time you're finished, we should be in the lower 40s.

If you've run the race in the past and you want to see how your race year ranked, I've compiled all of the numbers for you below. (Yes, I really like numbers :) ALMOST as much as I like running!)

(Important note: The numbers above are based on the morning low temperatures from each race day. Those numbers, including the rainfall total from last year were recorded at Richmond International Airport.)

GOOD LUCK to all of you running tomorrow morning! I know you'll do awesome!

03/17/2015

With winter winding down, the likelihood for severe weather and tornadoes is increasing. Today was Tornado Preparedness Day across Virginia, so I'm taking the time now to debunk some myths about tornadoes and tornado safety. Here are the five myths that stand out to me as being the most common and just plain wrong:

5. You Can Rate a Tornado Just by Looking at it.

I blame the movie Twister for this one. Throughout the movie, they constantly look at tornadoes and say, "That's a F-3," or "There's a F-5 heading our way!" This is all wrong. The width of a tornado gives a general idea of the intensity, but there are plenty of examples of relatively skinny tornadoes that had higher winds than wider ones. It is nearly impossible to measure the wind speed of a tornado as they are happening as the instruments would likely be destroyed. Instead, the wind speed within tornadoes is estimated based on the damage they leave behind. The method that is used to do this is the Enhanced Fujita or EF Scale. The evaluation of the damage can't occur until after the tornado has passed, which is why the official rating of a tornado is usually not announced by the National Weather Service until the day after the storm. So you might not know how strong a tornado is before it hits, but it doesn't matter. Every tornado is dangerous and requires your immediate action.

4. It's Better to Stay Inside a Mobile Home Than Leave.

While it is almost always better to be indoors than outdoors during a tornado, there is an exception when it comes to mobile homes/trailers/manufactured homes. Mobile homes are much more likely to be destroyed by a tornado than a permanent building. Most mobile homes are only designed to sustain winds up to 70 mph; the strength of an EF-0 tornado. Mobile homes also frequently flip over in tornadoes, because it is so easy for winds to get underneath the home and lift it. If you are in a mobile home and a tornado warning is issued, get out! If a permanent building is nearby, go there and seek shelter on the lowest floor. If there is not one nearby, you're still better off getting in your vehicle and driving to another location or seeking shelter in a low lying place outside the mobile home than remaining inside.

3. A Highway Overpass is a Safe Place to Take Shelter.

It's no mystery that a car is not the safest place to be in a tornado. They can be flipped over relatively easily and outrunning a tornado only works under ideal circumstances. Stopping your car under a highway overpass and taking shelter underneath it is NOT a better option though. There are documented cases of people surviving a tornado under an overpass, but there are more cases of people not surviving. Overpasses often act like a wind tunnel, enhancing the speed of the wind and providing a location for debris to gather. If you find yourself in a car during a tornado warning, do not stop under an overpass, but continue driving to the closest permanent building. If you see the tornado and have no direction to escape in, then you're better off getting out of your vehicle and taking shelter in a ditch or other low lying area than taking shelter under an overpass.

2. Tornadoes Do Not Cross Rivers or Hills.

Some believe that if they can get to the opposite side of a river from a tornado they will automatically be safe. Once again, not true. Tornadoes have been documented crossing rivers and continuing on the other side. A tornado is just as likely to occur over water as land. Another common belief is that tornadoes only occur in flat areas and cannot cross over hills. This too has been proven false. While most tornadoes do form over flat terrain, they also occur in mountainous areas and can track for miles over hilly terrain.

1. Opening the Windows in a House Before a Tornado Hits Will Help Protect it.

This is the #1 myth to me, because I've run in to more people that believe this one than any other. The idea is that opening all the windows in a house will help equalize the pressure between the inside and outside of the home and keep it from being destroyed by a tornado. While tornadoes are associated with lower atmospheric pressure, research has shown that it is the winds and debris within tornadoes that destroy buildings, not the pressure change. Taking the time to open all the widows in your home only wastes valuable minutes when you could be taking shelter in the most interior room in your home. Tornadoes will break your windows regardless, so make sure the room you take shelter in is window free so you can avoid the threat of flying glass.

So there you have it, the top five tornado myths! If you want more information on tornadoes and tornado safety this is a great website to check out: http://www.ready.gov/tornadoes

03/15/2015

Shortly after 3:00 AM the phones in the newsroom began ringing off the hook.

The culprit: a 2.8 magnitude earthquake in Louisa county. The earthquake occurred at 3:02 AM.

To put it into perspective for you, a 2.8 magnitude earthquake is classified as a "minor" earthquake but people can feel it, especially those who are near the epicenter.

In this case, the epicenter was about 5.5 miles SSE of the town of Louisa. It's marked with a star on the map below.

This morning's earthquake occurred about 3.1 miles below the surface of the earth.

The earthquake was felt in Mineral, Louisa, Bumpass, Kents Store, Gum Spring, Sandy Hook, Goochland, Gordonsville, Maidens, Troy, and several other places. There were even reports of light shaking in Mechanicsville.

03/03/2015

10:45pm: The storm has ended, but now with plummeting temperatures there will be the danger for water and slush freezing very quickly, and black ice on the roads and sidewalks will be widespread early in the morning Friday. Use EXTRA caution driving.

Storm totals ranged from an inch or two across the Richmond metro area, to 3" in Ashland, and 4-6" from Louisa to portions of the Northern Neck.

9:20pm: A few rogue flurries across the area, but nothing that's reducing visibility like earlier. These will linger for a couple more hours, but after midnight, clouds will begin to decrease from north to south. A hard freeze is expected across all of Central Virginia. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid teens in the Richmond metro area and possibly the single digits north of town. This will cause all the snow and sleet that fell today to stick around. Icy spots are likely through the overnight and morning hours tomorrow, especially on secondary and neighborhood roads. Use caution if you have to travel.

8:25pm: Here is a list of snow reports received so far by the National Weather Service office in Wakefield. Notice the wide range in totals. Up to 6 inches in some spots in northern Central Virginia, but less than an inch for some folks farther south.

8:00pm: Band of moderate snow has now pushed south of the Tri-Cities as it continues to lose intensity. Folks in our most southern counties will see some of this snow, but accumulations are expected to be under an inch. We have now seen the bulk of accumulating snow come to an end for the Richmond metro area. As you can see on the radar image below, there are a couple more thin bands of snow still making their way south. This will cause some occasional lingering flurries for the next few hours across the area, but they won't add to our snow totals much.

7:20pm: Band of moderate to heavy snow has now passed downtown Richmond and continues its trek south. Now in southern Chesterfield county and working towards the Tri-Cities. The band stretches to the northeast through the Northern Neck and to the southwest through Nottoway and Lunenburg county. The band is losing its intensity some, but will still squeeze out a quick inch or two. Light snow continues for Richmond and areas immediately north, though that should be coming to an end in the next hour.

6:49pm: Finally saw the changeover to snow in RVA over the past hour. Still looking for it to taper and end between 8-9pm, but accumulations of up to an inch or so on top of the sleet will be possible.

5:34pm: RVA remains mostly light sleet and freezing drizzle, with an icy glaze building. Temperatures aloft are just starting to get sufficiently cold for snow. Late this afternoon, most snow has been focused north and west of Richmond. We could still see some light snow into early evening, but all precipitation will be tapering and ending between 7-9pm, so our main issue overnight will be freezing of water on roads with temperatures tumbling into the teens later tonight.

4:36pm: The sleet is changing over to snow over metro RVA, but mainly over northern and western suburbs. Warm air aloft between 5K-10K has kept the sleet going for RVA. Heavy snow has been ongoing this afternoon just to the north, including Hanover, Louisa, Goochland Counties, and points north, with several inches accumulation in some spots north of RVA. Due to the late changeover from RVA and to the south, only light amounts of snow are expected before all precipitation tapers off between 7-9pm. Areas to the north where heavy snow has been falling can expect to see tapering off as well, but with a possible additional accumulation of a couple of inches. Here's the latest radar.

11:30am. Forecast on schedule, but with new computer guidance coming in and with the snow POURING down on DC, we are looking like reaching the high end of the forecast for our northern zones. This would be for those of you in the 3-5" zone north of town.

10:06am: Also sleeting in Western Goochland and in Caroline. Still just rain in the Richmond Metro.

9: 47am: sleet is covering the ground in Bumpass (Louisa) and on the Northern Neck. We expect the sleet to progress south during the morning.

"Early morning update previous update below"

Temperatures are falling --At 4:00 AM, Richmond was at 46°. Now, we're in the mid 30s. This slow cooling trend will continue into the afternoon. We think we'll be down to 32° by noon in Richmond. This will happen sooner NORTH of town and a bit later as you travel farther south.

The transition from precipitation type to precipitation type will occur from north to south, so we're keeping our eyes on northern Virginia this morning. DC's suburbs are cooling and are at or below freezing in a few spots (as of 8:00 AM).

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK will occasionally issue these "statements" called "Mesoscale Discussions." Their latest update places the Shenandoah Valley and northern Virginia in a bullseye for increasingly heavy snow through late morning and into the afternoon. Locally, rates may exceed 1 inch per hour. I'm attaching their map below. If you're traveling west or north into the pink shaded area this morning, use extreme caution.

Here in Richmond, we'll continue to see periods of rain through the morning before the sub-freezing air arrives. The timing of our impending subfreezing air will be CRUCIAL to when the change from rain to sleet and then snow occurs. This will have a major impact on total snowfall accumulations. (For example, a prolonged period of sleet could reduce snowfall totals. A quicker transition to snow could increase our totals.)

Here's our thinking now:

Morning: RainLate-Morning: SleetMidday: Sleet (Snow possible north of RVA)Afternoon: Snow (overnight computer models are indicating this will be holding off until 3 or 4 in Richmond). Snow may be heavy at times, reducing visibility and making travel hazardous.

Speaking of travel, road conditions will become more dicey as the afternoon goes on. With temperatures expected to fall into the upper 20s by late afternoon, the evening commute could be particularly hazardous. Temperatures will continue to fall during the night, with lows Friday morning expected to be in the low to mid teens. (We are forecasting a low of 12°. If that verifies, it would be a RECORD. The old record is 15°, set back in 1960.)

NOTE: a prolonged period of sleet would DECREASE these totals. A quicker transition to SNOW from SLEET or RAIN would INCREASE these totals. That would give us about 4"-6" in Richmond.