2016 ACM Awards: Personal Picks & Predictions

Tonight’s ACM Awards will be hosted by Dierks Bentley and Luke Bryan. Slated performances include a collaboration between Dolly Parton and Katy Perry, and Miranda Lambert joining up with Billy Gibbons and Keith Urban to cover the ZZ Top song, “Tush.”

Country music in 2016, y’all.

The heavy dose of newer artists across the ballot and the slated performance lineup have this show being characterized as showcasing the future of country music. If George Jones was still alive today, he’d be singing, “Who’s Gonna Fill Their Shoes with Cement?”

Here are our staff personal picks and predictions for tonight’s show. In advance of the show, Florida Georgia Line has been named Vocal Duo and Eric Church has picked up the Music Video award for “Mr. Misunderstood.” As always, an additional post will go up with a list of winners later on tonight.

Entertainer of The Year

Should Win:

Jason Aldean

Garth Brooks

Luke Bryan

Eric Church – Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam

Miranda Lambert

Will Win:

Jason Aldean

Garth Brooks

Luke Bryan – Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam

Eric Church

Miranda Lambert

KJC: Luke Bryan seems to be the designated Entertainer these days. I’d normally root for Lambert, but she didn’t put out a new album in 2015. So I’ll go with Church, since he put out a fantastic set during the eligibility period.

LW: Eric Church deserves to win, though I wouldn’t mind seeing Garth Brooks win it. But I can’t bet against Luke Bryan, as frustrated with the country music industry as that makes me.

JK: Church would get my vote for having the best balance of commercial impact, touring presence, and artistic cachet during the eligibility period. Even without the fan vote this year, Bryan’s popularity within the industry seems likely to secure him another win.

SG: Eric Church has the best year of any of the nominees from an artistic standpoint, but I don’t see them breaking away from Luke Bryan just yet.

Male Vocalist

Should Win:

Jason Aldean

Dierks Bentley – Sam

Eric Church – Kevin

Brett Eldredge

Chris Stapleton – Jonathan, Leeann

Will Win:

Jason Aldean

Dierks Bentley – Sam

Eric Church

Brett Eldredge

Chris Stapleton – Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann

KJC: The wholesale embrace of Stapleton seems premature to me, but I don’t think that will stand in the way of a win. Both Bentley and Church are overdue for this award, and Church made the best music during the eligibility period, so he gets my imaginary vote.

LW: After his recent awards show victories, I can’t bet against Chris Stapleton, and I wouldn’t want to.

JK: I’d pull for the years-overdue Bentley on sentiment, except that he just released what is possibly the worst single of his career, so he can wait until the CMAs when, hopefully, he’ll be back to being one of mainstream country’s best acts. Eldredge released an album that squanders his vocal talent, and Aldean’s appeal, as ever, remains lost on me. I like Church’s album more than Stapleton’s, but The Beard Of Truth is the best singer in the line-up by miles, and his awards-show victory lap should continue here.

SG: The ascension of Bentley to co-host of the ACM’s is a long-overdue recognition that Bentley is one of the genre’s top-tier talents. Anyone who’s seen him live in concert can attest to the fact that his absence from the Entertainer of the Year categories is baffling. His track record predates Church’s and Stapleton’s emergence, so I’m pulling for some trophies to come his way, in spite of “Somewhere on a Beach.”

Female Vocalist

Should Win:

Kelsea Ballerini

Jana Kramer

Miranda Lambert

Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Kevin, Sam

Carrie Underwood – Leeann

Will Win:

Kelsea Ballerini – Sam

Jana Kramer

Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Leeann

Kacey Musgraves – Kevin

Carrie Underwood

KJC: Great music last year from both Kacey Musgraves and Carrie Underwood. I think Musgraves has a real shot at breaking Lambert’s stranglehold on this award, and I give her my personal vote simply because she hasn’t won this award before and Underwood has. I’d be happy with either one of them.

JK: Look, I love Miranda Lambert. I think she is the best and most important country artist of her generation, and the competition isn’t even close. But the stranglehold the voting bloc from her management group has on this category both here and at the CMAs is absurd and is well past the point of breeding resentment and creating a backlash against her. Also absurd is that Underwood and her team released “Heartbeat” and “Church Bells” as singles instead of “Choctaw County Affair,” which is hands down the best thing she’s ever done. The “Dime Store Cowgirl” would get my vote, and Cam should have been nominated in place of the thin-voiced Kramer.

SG: I’ve always thought of the ACM’s as the more superficial of the two major country awards ceremonies, and you can’t get much more superficial than Kelsea Ballerini. The push to make her a superstar is well underway, and while I think Lambert is the odd-on favorite, Ballerini may be the dark horse. She’s being featured as a rising artist on Disney channels, which is the first ever time that a country singer has been given that treatment. With Sam Hunt left off the Male Vocalist category, this is the place to recognize a budding pop-country star.

Vocal Group

Should Win:

Eli Young Band

Little Big Town – Kevin, Leeann, Jonathan, Sam

Old Dominion

Rascal Flatts

Zac Brown Band

Will Win:

Eli Young Band

Little Big Town – Kevin, Leeann, Jonathan, Sam

Old Dominion

Rascal Flatts

Zac Brown Band

KJC: The night’s most predictable award, and I can’t even pull for an upset because everyone else in the category produced music of a much lower standard than LBT.

LW: This one’s just obvious!

JK: “Girl Crush” trumps the rest of the field in its entirety, but I don’t particularly care for LBT’s Pain Killer all that much, either.

SG: LBT is the only consistent hitmaker here, which says an awful lot about the talent left in the vocal group category in general.

Album

Should Win:

Eric Church, Mr. Misunderstood – Kevin, Jonathan

Sam Hunt, Montevallo

Thomas Rhett, Tangled Up

Chris Stapleton, Traveller – Leeann, Sam

Chris Young, I’m Comin’ Over

Will Win:

Eric Church, Mr. Misunderstood

Sam Hunt, Montevallo

Thomas Rhett, Tangled Up

Chris Stapleton, Traveller – Kevin, Leeann, Jonathan, Sam

Chris Young, I’m Comin’ Over

KJC: The ACM has been known to pick commercial success over critical success in some years, and to go for the critically acclaimed set over the big seller in other years. This year, there is no conflict: Stapleton has the top-selling and most critically acclaimed album of the five. (This critic prefers the Church set, but I’m in the minority on that one!)

LW: With the exception of Stapleton’s and Church’s albums, this is an amazingly weak list, not to mention that none of the year’s great female albums were nominated. If nothing else, it show’s the academy’s growing irrelevancy.

JK: Church and Stapleton are the only two albums that have any business being nominated for an award that is in any way based upon merit. Hunt’s sales should be their own reward for whatever it is that people seem convinced it is that he does well, while Young continues to waste one of the genre’s best voices on material that’s far beneath his talent. Rhett’s album is a pastiche of genre rip-offs from pretty well every genre except for country, and he lacks either the charisma or the vocal skill to pull any of it off. It’s spectacularly poor, and it’s a shame that he was nominated instead of any of the many women who did far superior work last year.

SG: I’m all in favor of a bunch of angry Sam Hunt fans getting together to make “#whoisChrisStapleton” trend on Twitter again.

Single

Should Win:

“Burning House” – Cam – Jonathan

“Buy Me a Boat” – Chris Janson

“Die a Happy Man” – Thomas Rhett

“Girl Crush” – Little Big Town – Kevin, Leeann, Sam

“I’m Comin’ Over” – Chris Young

“Take Your Time” – Sam Hunt

Will Win:

“Burning House” – Cam

“Buy Me a Boat” – Chris Janson

“Die a Happy Man” – Thomas Rhett – Jonathan

“Girl Crush” – Little Big Town – Kevin, Leeann, Sam

“I’m Comin’ Over” – Chris Young

“Take Your Time” – Sam Hunt

KJC: The future of country music is here, and it apparently stinks. Seriously, this is the worst lineup imaginable, even with an extra nomination slot. Please just hand this to Little Big Town. Please.

LW: This category is about as weak as the albums category, but at least they let a couple of women in this time. While I sonically like “Burning House” the best, the clever awards show darling, “Girl Crush,” is the obvious bet.

JK: I’m concerned about “Girl Crush” fatigue, since it feels like the song has been winning awards for far longer than just the past year. It would be my second choice behind Cam’s lovely “Burning House,” which is every bit as understated in its production and which boasts a standout melody. But Rhett’s “Die A Happy Man,” a flagrant ripoff of an Ed Sheeran single that was barely tolerable in the first place, was the #1 single at country radio for a not insignificant portion of the voting period. I hope I’m wrong for thinking that will give him the edge.

SG: “Girl Crush” has been winning awards for about the last 5 years, or so it seems. Let this song have its final hurrah so we can move on to something else, please.

Song

Should Win:

“Burning House”

Written by Jeffrey Bhasker, Cam, and Tyler Johnson

Performed by Cam

“Girl Crush” – Kevin, Jonathan

Written by Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, and Liz Rose

Performed by Little Big Town

“Nobody to Blame” – Leeann, Sam

Written by Barry Bales, Ronnie Bowman, and Chris Stapleton

Performed by Chris Stapleton

“Raise ‘Em Up”

Written by Tom Douglas, Jaren Johnston, and Jeffrey Steele

Performed by Keith Urban and Eric Church

“She Don’t Love You”

Written by Eric Paslay and Jennifer Wayne

Performed by Eric Paslay

Will Win:

“Burning House”

Written by Jeffrey Bhasker, Cam, and Tyler Johnson

Performed by Cam

“Girl Crush” – Kevin, Leeann, Jonathan, Sam

Written by Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, and Liz Rose

Performed by Little Big Town

“Nobody to Blame”

Written by Barry Bales, Ronnie Bowman, and Chris Stapleton

Performed by Chris Stapleton

“Raise ‘Em Up”

Written by Tom Douglas, Jaren Johnston, and Jeffrey Steele

Performed by Keith Urban and Eric Church

“She Don’t Love You”

Written by Eric Paslay and Jennifer Wayne

Performed by Eric Paslay

KJC: A marginally better lineup than the Single category, but still no real competition for “Girl Crush,” with the only real threat being the Stapleton composition.

LW: Stapleton’s song is my favorite of these choices, but again, Little Big Town’s song is the most cleverly written.

JK: Paslay has some vocal fans who insist that he’s the real deal; “She Don’t Love You” is fine enough, but I don’t think it would have been a standout song a generation ago. Stapleton could run the table, and this would give voters a chance to reward him for his years under-the-radar as a songwriter for so many other artists. But I think The Love Junkies take it for “Girl Crush,” making it a clean and well-deserved sweep at the CMAs, Grammys, and ACMs.

KJC: I’m predicting a narrow win for the biggest hit of the five, but I’d rather see all of Little Big Town acknowledged for their low-key, mildly hypnotic collaboration with Miranda Lambert.

LW: I’m not wild about any of these songs, but I like “Smokin’ and Drinkin'” the best.

JK: I wouldn’t go to bat for any of these five– all apologies to Miranda and LBT, but that song never worked for me as a collaboration between them– but it seems like a collaboration with Urban is always an easy path to victory in this category.

17 Comments

Overall, it’s a disappointing lineup. (Thank God baseball is back.)
I admire Church’s efforts against ticket scalpers but I don’t care much for his music.
Stapleton’s album hasn’t grown on me. Best country album this past year is Cass County.
Agree with JK’s comment that “Cam should have been nominated in place of the thin-voiced Kramer.” I’ll be rooting for “Burning House” for Single & Song.

The nominees are so poor this year, I couldn’t even muster the will to write about them. It’s all just so uninspiring. That being said, in a race between Stapleton and Church, Eric wins in my book. His latest set is his finest work to date and a major win for artistic expression in mainstream country music. I’d give my imaginary vote to him in Album of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year and Entertainer of the Year for sure.

Does anyone else sense Dierks Bentley is changing the way he plays the game? I feel like ‘Somewhere on a Beach’ is the beginning of his push to ascend to the next level. The video of his naked ACM nightmare is another sign. I just hope his new album retains some of the artistic expression his longtime fans expect from him. It’ll be interesting to see how he does as co-host tonight. Will he play off Luke’s immaturity?

No offense- but are you guys even paying attention to the ACM RULES for Female Vocalist??? Hello! Carrie Underwood slayed everyone in 2015 ib terms of Radio, sales, chart stats, and her amazing Storyteller Album! What did Miranda do in 2015 exactly to deserve her 8th Female vocalist award in a row? NOTHING! She did not even hit Top 10 on country radio! You guys and the whole industry are grossly out of touch with who actually deserves to win- just because you adore Miranda. It is making you blind to the stats and actual Rules. Sadly- you are not alone in overlooking Carrie foir the past 7 years! She did more than any woman in 2015- and her album is the best of her Career! She is the Best vocalist in the genre period, and her tour is on Fire! Plus, she got really great critical reviews for her Storyteller Album. Sorry- but Miranda already won last year for Platinum, and she did not even release new music in 2015 nor have a radio hit whatsoever. Carrie smoked her in e015! What are you guys smoking? Sorry- but I am just so frustrated with the constant favortism to precious Miranda and the terrible snub of Carrie Underwood- who is the most important Female Vocalist of this generation, not just in country but in all of music. TEAM CARRIE!

Ps= there comes a point when you have to stop checking the same person’s box over and over again and start actually reading the Rules governing the ACMS. You are not supposed to vote blindly for your favorite year after year. You are supposed to examine carefully who did what within the eligibility year. If you actually did that- you would see that Carrie Underwood is the Clear favorite to win in terms of the Rules due to her massive success in 2015. Miranda had a quiet year due to her singles flopping on country radio, low sales, and her duvorce taking her out of the spotlight. 2014 was huge for Miranda- but she already won for Platinum and her radio songs tanked while Carrie had 4 number 1s– SITW *7 weeks on Hot Country songs), Little Toy Guns, Smoke Break, and Heartbeat. (though Heartbeat peaked in 2016) Carrie’s album is closing on Platinum and it was just released in late October. Her tour is selling out at massive arenas, and her album got really strong critical reviews as it is the BEST album of her career. Pay attention to the actual data and chart achievements! Do not just blindly obsess over Miranda like the rest of the industry. If you continue to ignore Carrie’s accomplishments and blindly check Miranda’s box year afte ryear because you like her better for whatever subjective reason- you will be picking Miranda from beyond the grave. You are doing a disservice to the industry and to all the other deserving women who will never get a chance to win–ever- due to your adoration for Queen Miranda. Carrie smoked all the other ladies in 2015=- and deep down you know I am right. This is so unfair and infuriating. I used to love Miranda too, but the way the industry is treating poor Carrie like dirt, and treating Miranda like the savior of country music, is appauling, and embarrassing for the industry as a whole. The public knows how great Carrie is and how successful she was this past year, as well as many years where Miranda won anyway. Yet Nashville continues to turn a blind eye to Carrie and treat her like dirt. It is sickening, and making me hate everything about the industry/voters/block voting, and biased journalists. There are other women out there having massive success in country music- and their names do not all start with MIRANDA! Rant over.

Am I the only one who is bummed Alan Jackson’s album didn’t get as much love last year and it deserved? It almost seemed like he released it knowing it wouldn’t be critically acclaimed, but dammit it is a great album with 5 songs I consider to be some of the best that was released last year. To not see him or his album even on the radar at Award shows show how much Country has fallen.

I’m probably not going to watch, but I’m rooting for Cam and Stapleton. Cam’s album was really good, and I say that as someone who was lukewarm on Burning house.

I loved the Alan Jackson album and would’ve liked it to have done better.

Justice for Carrie,

I would put Underwood ahead of Lambert this year, but she already has three Female Vocalist and two Entertainer trophies from the ACM, along with a win for Album and Single.

I don’t know why she’s been winning less and being nominated less in the last few years at the CMA and ACM, but she has a pretty full trophy case already. And still wins Grammy Awards regularly, which is the most prestigious one anyway.

As for “us guys” being out of touch because we favor Lambert, please note that we predicted her to win. She isn’t the personal choice this year for any of the contributing writers.

We all agree she’s a great talent, though. In a perfect world, Underwood, Lambert, and Musgraves would be trading this award from year to year, depending on their output in a given eligibility period.

I’m surprised you guys don’t like Jana Kramer’s voice I mean her current single sucks and her album she released this year was pretty much below average, but she did have one of the year’s best singles in “I Got The Boy” that was a gold selling song. Also I don’t know why Leeann you’re surprised Kelsea Ballerini is nominated for female vocalist, she’s had two #1 hits and has a ton of hype in the industry, provided her sales as a whole isn’t good but she does have a lot of love in the industry provided if she wins female vocalist I will never take the ACMs seriously ever again.

Also I find it hilarious of how the Vocal Group category is a complete and utter joke Little Big Town has lost momentum with radio again. Eli Young Band is rebranding after the failed “pop” attempt, Old Dominion is well Old Dominion, Zac Brown Band are barely a band since Zac Brown seems to be the only one radio refers to. Also Rascal Flatts well I have no idea how they are still relevant.

Entertainer should go to Eric Church. I’ve yet to seen his show but I hear it’s amazing.

I really hope Miranda Lambert doesn’t get the Female Vocalist since she barely had a radio presence while Kelsea, Jana, and Carrie Underwood released albums and had pretty successful singles on radio.

I find it a joke Chris Young and Thomas Rhett get all these nominations, since both waste their talent (although Rhett doesn’t even sound like he has much if any) Here’s what I would have done for Album Of The Year
Traveller
Mr. Misunderstood
The Blade
Montevallo
Pageant Material
I might detest Sam Hunt but there is no denying his (unfortunate) impact on country music.

Jonathan Keefe (JK) and his opinions really should not be considered in this article. He isn’t able to write objectively. He has written a lot of mean-spirited and just plain rude reviews about Carrie Underwood, so I really don’t see how his opinion counts in the Female Vocalist category. He really has some unresolved issues he should work out.

Carrie doesn’t win or get nominated much anymore because she’s not a member of the two big voting blocks WME and Live Nation. It’s part of the reason why Miranda keeps winning even for her off years. WME doesn’t have any other women successful enough to get a nomination, or they’d be winning too. WME doesn’t have the stranglehold over the Grammys like the country shows, so Carrie and her songs still win there.

Are you guys even serious!? You pick Lambert to win “because Underwood has won ACM awards before”, as in it’s “fair to pick Lambert, since Underwood still wins Grammys and has won ACMs before, poor Lambert”.
Why kind of so-called music journalist say that?
What about picking who’s indeed the most deserving one? Who did everything the past year to win Female Vocalist? The female artist who traveled the word promoting country music? The female artist who’s be selling out a global tour, who’s had multiple #1 single on radio the past year. That’s Carrie Underwood.
You’re seriously biased here, pretty much like the WME agency, who manipulates the ACM and CMA awards votes.
To even call Lambert “the most important female artist” is an offense to the genre, as pretty much any other country artist is more important than Lambert this decade… Let’s say… Lady Antebellum, Underwood herself, Taylor Swift (when she was country), Luke Bryan.
Seriously, never saw such a biased website like this one.
Glad no one reads this.

IMO, Miranda Lambert represents country music like no other. This is a woman who is loyal to country music, you can not argue that. She is successful in her own right without being pimped out by non country sectors. Carrie Underwood while more successful in terms of sales in her earlier days, it is mostly because of her non country connections. From American Idol to the grammy awards (also through her idol connections). Where as Miranda Lambert went to Nashville star. Truth be told, Carrie Underwood is an undercover person who truly desires to be a pop star but is to afraid to try because she is scared to fail over at pop. I would choose lambert over her any day in country music. Lambert is what a true loyalist and is extremely successful making over 20 million dollars last year, more then underwood with all her pimping.

Regardless of Lambert’s artistic heft, she literally did next to nothing this past eligibility year. Anyone voting for her is doing so out of politics. I don’t even think she deserved to be nominated. Hate on Ballerini all you want (and I get it), but at least she made a mark in the past year.

Are you guys even serious!? You pick Lambert to win “because Underwood has won ACM awards before”, as in it’s “fair to pick Lambert, since Underwood still wins Grammys and has won ACMs before, poor Lambert”.
Why kind of so-called music journalist say that?

It’s entirely valid to consider whether or not an artist has won before. Again, Underwood would be my second choice, after Musgraves. Underwood will probably be my pick for the CMA this fall and the ACM next year. I like her new album. It just came out so late in the year that it feels more like 2016 is her year, especially with the tour.

What about picking who’s indeed the most deserving one? Who did everything the past year to win Female Vocalist?

We did. Leeann thinks that person is Underwood. The rest of us think it’s Musgraves.

“It’s entirely valid to consider whether or not an artist has won before.”
Maybe in a subjective way it is, but in reading the criteria for the award I don’t see anything about previous wins mentioned.

Female Vocalist listed criteria:
“The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of prerecorded music, success in digital media, live concert ticket sales and vocal performances.”
Looking at it objectively, over the past year of eligibility what female had more success at radio, sales of prerecorded music, etc than Carrie Underwood? Someone may have preferred Musgraves album, but that would only be part of the criteria. I don’t see where Lambert is close to the top in any of those measures. Ballerini maybe has the radio part, but that would be it.