Effectively calculating and communicating uncertainty is crucial for effective risk management, but is difficult to achieve in practice. This is compounded when the application area is highly complex with multiple model fidelities, and “accurate” UQ is impossible.

Uncertainty communication must be clear to experts and non-experts alike and must account for a lack of understanding of the definitions of both “risk” and “uncertainty”. By drawing on examples from the wide variety of defence applications that require an understanding and communication of uncertainty and outlining the reason that uncertainty calculation and communication is crucial to decision making, this talk will explore the current state of the art and outline the many open challenges remaining.