Kiran's Thoughts.. As Is

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The hottest topic during the past weekend was BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) or OBOR (One Belt, One Road). Basically China's mega project of Belt and Road Initiative, connecting dozens of countries and building infrastructure with a "win-win" proposal.

There are five parts to this writeup. Feel free to jump to any section that suits your interest as the writeup is quite long. If you have time, go through every section, including the videos and reading material links provided. You will need at least 5 hours to fully absorb the extensive research provided here, if you want to read and watch all the material provided.

Five parts in this writeup:

General views from involved countries.

Legality of a disputed area through which CPEC goes through.

Misconceptions about CPEC in Pakistan.

Strategic reasons for CPEC that would mostly benefit China only.

Why both Pakistan and China are going ahead with CPEC?

-----------------------------------------------------------------Part 1: There are three general views about CPEC, from three concerned countries.

If you are a Pakistani, you will be talking about the bright future for Pakistan in CPEC and how Dollars will grow from trees in a generation! Of course, you will say Indians are jealous of Pakistan's upcoming massive development, and hence they are not joining OBOR or CPEC. By the way, CPEC is the largest investment promised to Pakistan since its formation in 1947!

If you are an Indian, you will focus on Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, that is legally a part of India, but illegally occupied by Pakistani. You will also focus on Shaksgam valley and Aksai Chin as related areas of Jammu and Kashmir, illegally occupied by China. And, CPEC will eventually touch these Pakistan and China occupied territories that are legally a part of India due to 1947 J&K accession document. For India, this is a clear violation of its territorial sovereignty.

If you are a Chinese, you will talk about economic cooperation with all neighbouring countries, specifically linking Indian ocean with Pacific ocean with the great CPEC project and OBOR mega scheme. As a Chinese, you would say, keep politics out of economic project.

But let's examine CPEC part of OBOR in detail. I am liberally using an excellent research posted on Twitter by an Anonymous poster {@handle_anonymus}. Special thanks to that man or woman, who has enlightened us all, while keeping anonymous. I also did some in depth reading and watching videos over the days to understand more on this. So this blog will have a combination of info, but presented in a way that will give you a bigger picture.

It does not matter if you support or oppose CPEC and OBOR. Just read to understand the ground realities and projections. Then give your opinion in comments, and specifically any corrections to the facts presented here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------Part 2: Why do you say that a part of CPEC route is illegal as per international laws?

This is about the entry point of CPEC into Pakistan from China. The first 300 or so KM of CPEC passes through Jammu and Kashmir state, which is a legal part of India. You can refer to my earlier blog to learn about Gilgit Baltistan area - Jammu and Kashmir, a Reality Check. I have provided maps and much more details about the overall regions and the "dispute" part.

"The multi-billion dollar
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being touted as nothing more
than a 'black hole' as far as people of Gilgit Baltistan (shown in green in the map below) are concerned. Junaid Qureshi, a Kashmiri writer raises voice against the CPEC project, which passes through Gilgit Baltistan, a disputed territory controlled by Pakistan."

In short, neither China, nor Pakistan can ever claim that they OWN this Gilgit Baltistan area, which Pakistan also called as Northern Areas. If this area goes to international court, neither China, nor Pakistan can ever produce Accession document, which is with India for the entire Jammu and Kashmir state, of which Gilgit and Baltistan are part of.

Why so much emphasis on Gilgit Baltistan, a part of Jammu and Kashmir state in India?

For those who have not studied or watched Gilgit and Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state,
there are some links here. It is a fabulously beautiful place on the earth!

Watch the first 7 minutes and the last five minutes. You will see how CPEC is building infrastructure in Indian territory occupied by Pakistan. In India this is called as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir or PoK for short.

"China occupies more than 20,000 square kilometer of Gilgit-Baltistan (part of Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir) covering Shaksgam, Raskam, Shimshal and Aghil valleys" - Senge Sering, President of Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies.

As part of the Sino-Pakistan Frontier Agreement from 1960s, the Chinese authorities guaranteed India that it accepted Gilgit-Baltistan as a disputed territory and that the agreement was only provisional in nature and would be renegotiated once the dispute of Jammu & Kashmir was resolved.
This is the main reason India is saying CPEC is violating its territorial sovereignty.

This is how the Karakoram map highway was built between 1960s and 1980s first, and then being widened and strengthened during 2010s. India has objected to this many times in the past.

In short, Gilgit Baltistan is a paradise, a tough terrain and strategically very important for India, but under Pakistan and China's joint occupation now, as described above. This is the core issue for dispute and there is no way it would end anytime soon.

It's always a possibility that India can block international loans to CPEC tomorrow, citing legality of the territory. It's quite possible and a big risk Pakistan is taking knowing well the reality of Gilgit Baltistan's accession to India history.

For a minute let's say.. who cares about Indian opposition? Both China and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and there is no practical way India can wrestle Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan and China by force. India can play other tricks like water sharing cut off. But "we" can deal with them when they happen. "We" are going ahead with CPEC no matter what...

In that case, ask again. Is CPEC really helpful for Pakistan? This is the core question for this blog. CPEC is certainly helpful for China as it is planning it.

But for Pakistan? Is it worth the time, money, effort, international conflicts and much more?

Beyond politics, loans, technology etc... the big question is.. is this CPEC making economic sense to Pakistan, where most of the things are being built?

Now I will use the information from Twitter, referred here. I am going to present almost line by line that research from here onward.

There have been many rationals provided for CPEC. Pakistanis think that
it would upend sea route and CPEC would become primary supply route for Chinese goods and thus when it is completed then Dollars will flow through canals! First I demolish five misconceptions that people may have about CPEC, and then ponder on why it is being built, and its ramifications.

First misconception about CPEC: Cost of Transportation will become less

The first misconception is that it would become a supply route to China by
upending sea route for goods supplied to and from mid-east. It is not so and I would try to prove it using approximations with data available from open sources.

These cost are from a decade ago, and would have become 6 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.This is the most conservative calculation as I am not
taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway) and the Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert, Kulun Shan mountains range and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Ton of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational).
So the cost of transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787.
Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $395.

Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shanghai = $38 which
is 10.4 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar !!

And this is not all. CPEC passes through Khunjareb Pass which remain open only from May 1st till December 31st of each year. So CPEC can't be the main route to anywhere.

Second misconception about CPEC: China needs an energy Pipeline

The second misconception is that China is constructing a pipeline from Gwadar to Nawabshah. It has lead to Pakistanis speculating that Gwadar is on path of becoming an energy. Their TV shows even pulled in Iran and Russia into the gas equation of CPEC.

But it is not - reasons are here.

If one look at this map properly, China borders Gas and Oil rich Central Asia and has three mega pipelines running from Central Asia to China, including the world'slongest pipeline.

This version of map does not show Indian borders accurately

Of
anything that China needs, the least thing that China needs in East
Turkestan is Energy. It could get ample amount of it just from across
the border, some 100's of KM away. Note that East Turkestan is referred by China as its Xinjiang province, but there is a lot of controversy around that involving the native inhabitants Muslim Uyghurs. This CPEC runs through Xinjiang province on the Chinese part.

Third misconception about CPEC: It saves time

The third misconception about CPEC is that it could save time. This again is false. Let’s assume
the best possible conditions for a truck. A Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break)
and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30KMph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.

Via sea, the time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days.
So the total time required for overland transport when drivers and port handlers are supermen = 16 days.

This was an outlier calculation. Let's be realistic. Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refueling stop. It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashgar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account. That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach Shanghai from Kashgar. That is 14
days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days. We assume that Gwadar is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 36 days, compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca!!

Fourth misconception about CPEC: It could serve Western China

There are two follies to this argument.
The first being that western China is sparsely populated and the second being that other seaports are closer to those provinces.

Total area of these provinces = 5,222,100 Sq KM.
This is 54% of Total area of China, and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population
and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.

A Highway & Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic
depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of the country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. See this map closely for climatic regions of Asian eastern half. Clearly a large portion of CPEC's intended area within today's China is BWk (Desert) or ET (Alpine) areas with very minimal human population.

Now we come to aspect of distance between West Chinese cities and nearest seaports.

CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China. It is joining China in North-West corner of China, that is the western corner of
East Turkestan. The only provinces that it could affect are East Turkestan (Xinjiang) and its neighbours Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu in Western China, and Inner Mongolia in Northern China.

Source: Wiki

Many people would find it difficult
to fathom that some provinces (mostly in West China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. East Turkestan is 2.1 times
larger, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu is half of Pakistan.

Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan than even Europe. For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far
away from Islamabad by air (3559 KM) as Ankara (3600 KM).
CPEC could not be used by people separated by 2 provinces from Pakistan. It is a non starter.

Take Chongquing (No capital); Distance of Chongquing from Islamabad = 5069 KM.Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 KM. This is considering the construction of Three Gorges Dam. Barring the largest cargo ships, ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing. But still distance between Chongquing and
Shanghai is 1689 KM.Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 KM.

All these Western provinces that Pakistanis dream Gwadar would serve are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 KM, and of Paris is 7300 KM; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It
already has a corridor via Myanmar to Yunnan province for redundancy in 2013 itself.

Fifth misconception about CPEC: It would develop East Turkestan (Xinjiang)

Now we come to final dream of CPEC - that it would develop far west of China that is East Turkestan. This is pure day dreaming.

These places have a low population density because of geographical
limitations. Desert and Mountains never support high population, and this is a basic economic rule that low population areas never have high growth potential (because of less number of producers and consumers). Barring discovery of oil, desert remains
civilization backwater, irrespective of how many road you build since their population supporting capacity is limited by some very basic factors, FOOD and WATER. Even if you transport food at great cost in this area, you would still have no water to support a large settlement.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Part 4: Then WHY is China financing such a massive CPEC project?
Now that we have put some misconceptions regarding CPEC out of way, we ponder on reasons why China is financing CPEC? There arefour key reasons.

First reason for China building CPEC: Backup Trade route

The first reason is that China is building an alternative trade route in case Malacca and Sunda straits are blocked by US Navy or Indian Navy during a war. You need to go through either Malacca, Sunda, or Lombok straits, if you want to travel from Pacific to Indian oceans and does not want to swing around Papua New Guinea or Australia.

Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits of south east Asia

CPEC will provide China with alternative route, in case its sea trade is shut down by navies dominating the Indian Ocean.

Second reason for China building CPEC: Excess Built-up Capacity

The second reason for CPEC/OBOR is that China has excess capacity in Cement and Steel which it could not dump in market as most countries have started imposing countervailing duties on Chinese dumping. China is dumping its excess Steel and Cement capacity in OBOR, which the recipient countries have to pay. European investment into China has decreased recently. In 2016 it dropped 23% - lowest in 10 years. Chinese market access issues causing it. So China looking elsewhere to make profits.

Third reason for China building CPEC: Get Asian countries into Chinese debt

The third is strategic reason. China is trying to bind Asian countries to
itself by investing in their infrastructure, investment that carry a steep rate of return, thus indebting them to China. This is not limited to Pakistanis as even Sri Lanka has $50Bn debt due to politically motivated Chinese investment in Hambantota done
during Rajpaksa’s time, which it is finding difficult to discharge. Tajikistan is also facing a similar issue with big loans from Chinese.

-----------------------------------------------------------------Part 5: Finally, then WHY are China and Pakistan going ahead with CPEC?

From Chinese perspective, it is simple. It knows that Pakistan would not be able to pay its loan
and eventually China would come to own infrastructure and/or land inside Pakistan. It is classical neo-colonialism. Make a country so indebted to you that it could not help but sell itself
to you. Pakistan would become a puppet of China completely :(

Pakistan, on its part, is desperate for any investment, on
whichever term it comes with. Pakistan's Military is getting a share, its people have a hope that CPEC
would bring prosperity, and it also believe that if China own majority of assets in Pakistan, it would interfere in any future Indo-Pak war to save its assets.

If you have analyzed the analysis so far, you would be shaking your head stating - "It is hard to understand the mentality of Pakistanis.... also love the meticulous planning Chinese have done to reap a windfall in CPEC!"

Do you agree with the analysis? Tell me your feedback openly and in a civil way, by leaving a comment.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Every day I keep seeing questions on Jammu and Kashmir. Who does it belong to? How did we get here? What are the solutions? Who is to blame?

Let me answer the four most pertinent questions:

Will India be able to improve relations with Pakistan?

What is wrong with Kashmir, the Kashmir people, Hurriyat, and the governments of India and Pakistan?

Which nation does Aksai Chin belong to : China or India?

Why doesn’t India give Kashmir to the Kashmiris?

----------------------------------------Part 1) Will India be able to improve relations with Pakistan?

Pakistan
is a country built on a faulty foundation. The 2 nation theory wherein
Muslims can't live with Hindus (mostly) was their firm belief. But after
losing Bangladesh due to their own crime, that theory is now flushed.
Also, the gradual prosperity of Indian Muslims, who are living with
Hindus well for most part, has shocked the 4th generation of Pakistan
since independence. Economically, Pakistan is nothing in front of India. Pakistan's economy is much less than just one state of India, that is
Maharashtra.

The only
thing that is keeping Punjabis, Sindhis, Pathans, Baluchs and others is
the artificially created hate against India (victim hood). India will be
able to improve relationship with Pakistan only to the extent of keeping
away mad Generals of Pakistan from actually triggering the danger buttons on
missiles. Beyond that, it is more of a stick, carrot, stick, carrot...
relationship. Because you can't have perfect relationship with someone
whose only dream is to destroy you.

---------------------------------------- Part 2) What is wrong with Kashmir, the Kashmir people, Hurriyat, and the governments of India and Pakistan?

Basically who is blaming whom..

There is
nothing wrong with Kashmir. What we have is a dispute cultivated by
Britain and USA, during 1940s and early 1950s. Now it is an issue cultivated by China for its economic benefits and access to Arabian sea and Indian ocean via Pakistan. Even after 7 decades,
there is no end in sight.

Kashmir is generally a term used for the whole of Jammu and Kashmir
state. The state as it was in 1947, is a big one. Today, 60% of the
state is within India, even after the Maharajah who ruled in 1947 (Hari
Singh) formally signed an accession document to merge his state into
India, like 100s of other Rajas. Pakistan has control of 30% which it
invaded in the form of "tribal" invasion. China has control of about
10%. China might have a bit more than 10% as, Pakistan in 1960s "gifted"
a lush green Shaksgam valley in the north, to China.

The Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir princely state signed with India in 1947 an instrument of accession. That's it. J&K belongs to India eternally or at least close to eternity :)

This map (and another map in Part 3)
shows approximately the areas held by India, Pakistan and China. PoK =
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and CoK = China Occupied Kashmir. These are
standard terms used in Indian parliament. Some also use PoJK and CoJK.

Now coming to "Kashmir".. there are five distinct parts of Jammu and Kashmir state.

1) Kashmir valley - Small valley around Srinagar.2) Jammu - Southernmost part of J&K. Most populated place.3) Ladakh - Eastern Himalayan hills. Has the world's highest motorable road etc. Very sparely populated. 4)
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK): This has two distinct parts. One is
the southern strip along India's Kashmir valley, which Pakistan calls as
"Azad Kashmir". Then the bigger northern part which is Gilgit and
Baltistan. Now-a-days, these two areas - Gilgit and Baltistan, are
together termed as Northern Areas. 5) Aksai Chin (CoK) - North
Eastern J&K under China's control since 1962 war where Chinese
walked into this area. Aksai Chin is almost a desert where no one lives.
China also controls the lush green Shaksgam Valley (CoK 1 in the map),
"gifted" by Pakistan in 1960s, in return for things which you can
imagine.

Only two of these five places actually have protests
and people movements today. That is Kashmir valley within India, and PoK
or Azad Kashmir in Pakistan. The former is larger and louder. The
latter is smaller, but simmering. Kashmir Valley has separatist groups
under a Hurriyat banner, which represents overall less than 5% of the overall Jammu
and Kashmir. But media projects them as the true representatives of
"Kashmiris". Some of them want to become independent and some opt for
Pakistan. On the Pakistan side, low key movements are there to join
India. They are not given much publicity in media.

So if you
look at the overall picture, majority of Jammu and Kashmir is peaceful
or without any movements today. It's only the 10 to 20% of the overall
state, centered around the valley, that has disruptions. There are zero
problems in the large populated part of Jammu and Kashmir state, the
Jammu region. Jammu is predominantly Hindu and Ladakh is predominantly
Buddhist. That might explain why those regions have no issues with
India.

India blames Pakistan sponsored terrorism and
support to separatism for all the problems. And they keep coming inside
India regularly. Almost every month you will see a gun battle, with
cross border infiltration bids being stopped. You also see many
demonstrations in Kashmir valley, with Hurriyat groups mobilizing 1000s
of Kashmiri Muslim youth to come against India. India's claim is, just
like 500+ princely states that signed the accession document, J&K
also signed. So the whole state legally belongs to India. That is the
final settlement.

Pakistan blames India for all the
trouble. Pakistan talks of occupation by India. Pakistan goes back to
1940s and 50s when a three step process was discussed. It shows that
India had agreed to do a plebiscite for the whole state then considering
a war situation. But India says that one of the pre condition put by UN
was that Pakistan should withdraw from all the areas of Jammu and
Kashmir that it had army on. Pakistan refused to withdraw its troops. So
India conducted democratic elections in its part of J&K and the
matter is closed since then. China does not openly blame much, but quietly sides with Pakistan. After all China got parts of Jammu and Kashmir with almost no effort, and it wants Pakistan for its CPEC (economic corridor) to open a gateway to Arabian Sea/Indian ocean. Without PoK, China has no direct border with Pakistan, so it is vital from China's expansionist agenda to support Pakistan at any cost, even when Pakistan sponsors terrorism on large scale against India and other countries. China also keeps offering 'mediation' which India rejects every time within minutes.

Hope this gives a glimpse of the
core issue. Frankly, the issue is not as bad as you see in the media.
More than 12 million people live on the Indian side of J&K today.
More than 10 million of those live peacefully. "Kashmir Problem" is
essentially a problem in a small part within Kashmir valley, of a huge
Jammu and Kashmir state.

----------------------------------------Part 3: Which nation does Aksai Chin belong to : China or India?

Aksai Chin belongs to India.

Two reasons:

It
was a part of Jammu and Kashmir princely state. In fact, the Maharajah
of Jammu and Kashmir had even constructed a fort at Shahidulla
(modern-day Xaidulla, a part of Xinjiang in China today), and had troops
stationed there for some years to protect caravans. So it was more than
Aksai Chin that was under Jammu and Kashmir ruler’s control.

It
was a part of 1865 Johnson line during British survey of India. William
Johnson, a civil servant with the Survey of India had drawn the
"Johnson Line" in 1865, which had put Aksai Chin into Jammu and Kashmir.
After 1947 October, Jammu and Kashmir joined India through a legally
signed accession document by the Maharajah. This was similar to 100s of
other Maharajahs who signed to accede to India during that year, which
British left India, creating India and Pakistan as two separate nations.

If you
look closely, Aksai Chin has borders with both Xinjiang and Tibet. Both
were not with China 70 years ago. Chinese call the 1949 occupation of
Xinjiang (a Turkish Muslim dominated province) as the “Peaceful
liberation of Xinjiang”. Before that in 1878, Chinese had “reconquered
Xinjiang” once. Not sure why they needed a second “liberation” in 1949.
They also term the 1951 occupation of Tibet by China as “Incorporation
of Tibet into the People's Republic of China”. In short, both are huge
central Asian regions and both were not a part of what we know as China
today, before 1949.

Then how did India lose Aksai Chin to China?

Because
post 1947 independence, India was going through a big turmoil. Civil
war, massive poverty and other issues had kept the first Prime Minister
Jawaharlal Nehru busy with highly populated places, taking focus off
Aksai Chin which had almost no population. It was a barren land in the
high altitude of Himalayas, at the tip of Northern India. Moreover,
Tibet was a buffer state between India and China, and a friendly one. So
India had nothing to worry on Aksai Chin area. But the newly resurgent
China had just “incorporated” massive provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet,
and was building China National Highway 219. That highway runs through
Aksai Chin connecting Lazi and Xinjiang in the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Despite this region being nearly uninhabitable and having no resources,
it remains strategically important for China as it connects Tibet and
Xinjiang. The highway construction started in 1951 and the road was
completed in 1957. This was one of India’s biggest blunders, as they did
not “notice” this highway built through Aksai Chin, fully claimed by
it! By the time they lodged complaints with China, it was too late.

So
China literally got 10s of 1000s of sq. KM of Aksai Chin area, while
India was sleeping or busy with internal issues. Now they are using it
as a bargain to get more strategic lands east of Himalayas.

So Aksai Chin belonged to Jammu and Kashmir.

It became a part of India after Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India via a legal signature in 1947.

But
it mostly is under Chinese control since 1950s as India was “too busy”
to notice a massive highway being built by China through Aksai Chin.

It is officially termed as CoJK in India - China occupied Jammu and Kashmir

There
is also another part of Jammu and Kashmir state of India, called
Shaksgam valley. That is not barren like Aksai Chin. It is a beautiful
lush green Himalayan mountain region, “gifted” by Pakistan in 1963 to
China for other “favours” extended by China. It is CoJK - 2 (China
Occupied Jammu and Kashmir part 2) in Jammu and Kashmir.

Shaksgam
Valley must be the only land on this planet, which belongs to one
country (India) legally, but “gifted” by a second country (Pakistan) to a
third country (China) for other favours received!

So
Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley issues would remain a thorn between
India and China relations for decades to come.. if not longer.

Lastly,
not only Aksai Chin, but China technically has no business with
Himalayas. Even today, 94% of Chinese live east of the Heihe-Tengchong
line or Hu Huanyong line. Yes 94%!!

Sorry: J&K map is not accurate in this population density map found on the net.

Look on
the Indian side. There are 100s of millions of Indians living within
100–200 KM from Himalayas all across its west to East length. So all
these claims of Tibet, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam valley, Arunachal Pradesh,
Xinjiang are fairly strategic and new from Chinese point of view,
without any basis from historic or population existence logic. The Hun
Chinese have historically been limited to the east of Hu Huanyong line.
And it holds true even today.

Just like
modern India was formed by 500+ such accession documents signed by
erstwhile Rajas, Nawabs, and other leaders, Jammu and Kashmir joined
India in 1947.Once a part of Indian union each state has freedom
within its territories, as defined by the constitution of India.
Compared to rest of Indian states, J&K has a lot more freedom and
autonomy. More than 200 constitutional amendments to Indian constitution
are not even applicable in J&K as of today.

So
no matter how many decades this talk goes on, No Pakistani or No
Chinese can ever claim an inch of Jammu and Kashmir state, as the entire
state is a legal part of India due to the accession document.

China is illegally occupying Shaksgam valley (COK 1) and Aksai Chin (COK 2). See map at the top of this blog post for details.

So
Kashmir is already with Kashmiris. There are Kashmiri Chief Ministers
governing the state for decades. Just like a Kannadiga governs
Karnataka, a Odia governs Odisha, a Kashmiri is governing now.

Whatever
violence and trouble we have there is sponsored by Pakistan which is
illegally occupying a big portion of J&K. The moment China and
Pakistan vacate their illegal occupations, and return the entire J&K
to the rightful owner India, all problems would be solved immediately.

PS: All images used in this blog post are found using public search on internet. All credits to original rights holders.

There was a discussion.. Which languages did Bengaluru speak historically? Who built Bengaluru?

Since I
am born and brought up in Bengaluru, I have seen right my childhood many
languages and regions trying to “claim” that this city belongs to them
:) So nothing is new in asking such things, but maybe this would give
you opportunity to learn more on this amazing city of India that is
contributing Lakhs of Crores towards India’s economy today, each year.

Let me take you back a 1000 years and give a tour of Bengaluru's history.

Start with Gangas:
Ganga (shown in the map below yellow region), was a formidable south
Indian kingdom 1000 years ago. Their capital was initially north east of
Bengaluru (Kolara) and then moved to south west of Bengaluru
(Talakadu). History of Bengaluru starts with Ganga period.

Then
came Hoysalas. The territory of Bengaluru was under Gangas till then,
but no city or town was in place. About 900 years ago, Veera Ballala,
the Hoysala King lost his way during a hunting expedition in today’s
Bengaluru area. It was a semi forest then. An old lady cooked beans for
the king and served the hungry man. He was so delighted that he called
that place, Benda kaal-ooru in Kannada (ಬೆಂದ ಕಾಳ ಊರು), literally meaning in English, “the town/city of boiled beans”. That’s the most popular story of how the name got stuck. Later BendaKaalooru became Bengaalooru and then Bengaluru. All three have the same meaning in Kannada - the city of boiled beans.

Still it was nothing more than a small village then.

Then came Kempe Gowda 1. He was a paale-gaara (feudatory) of the mighty Vijayanagara kingdom,which
was ruled from Hampi in the center of southern peninsula. Vijayanagara
was the biggest Hindu kingdom of India 500 years ago. It’s capital Hampi
was the richest city in India 500 years ago.. Maybe it was among the 5
richest cities of the world reading the chronicles of how they sold
precious stones on street sides then. Vijayanagara was a Kannada and Telugu hybrid
kingdom, with both languages passionately claiming the mighty Krishna
Deva Raya - a good thing in India :) Maybe even Tulu people might join
the claiming race soon! As you can see, Vijaya Nagara (City of Victory)
occupied almost the entire south India, with extensions going into Goa
and Odisha at the peak. And Kempe Gowda being a part of Vijayanagara
rule, had his hand in the geographical center, including the future gold
mine, Bengaluru.

Kempe Gowda built four watch towers marking the four boundary poles of Bengaluru.

Lal Bagh in the south

Kempambudi Kere (lake) in the west,

Halasuru kere (lake) in the east, and

Mekhri circle area in the north.

Today, Lal bagh still exists. You can go see the tower there. For the rest, you have to search a lot.

If
you walked around the Pete (in Kannada pete - ಪೇಟೆ - means shopping
area) area of Bengaluru three centuries ago, this is how you would have
seen. Even today, most of these Pete’s exist, with many remarkably doing
the same kind of business their great-great-great fathers did centuries
ago!

Bale-pete means bangle market and
Akki-pete means rice market. Every pete is either named after a
commodity name in Kannada, or a community/caste that did business there.
Uppara, Ganiga and Tigala are all community/caste names in Kannada.
Today, the most famous police station near the central Majestic bus
stand is Upparpete police station, retaining the historic name!

Then
Bengaluru picked up growth well. A fort came up in the center. Got
reinforced. Marathas had their share of building the city center. Hyder
Ali and Tipu had their share of building. Some small villages that
existed with Chola influence in the north East (near Halasuru) got
absorbed into the main city. This area Halasuru derives name from Halasu
+ Ooru meaning the town of Jack Fruit trees. British pronounced it
Ulsoor. By now it was a very cosmopolitan city with great weather, good
commerce, well protected and many languages. So people started coming in
from all corners as it was the geographical center of south India.

This was Bengaluru about 250 years ago. Today, this circle is within the central 25% of the city.

Source: How Kempe Gowda built Bangalore.Kempe
Gowda’s city was absorbed into Mysuru (Mysore as British called) kingdom
ruled from Srigangapattana (later Mysuru). This was after Vijayanagara
collapsed and Hampi was ransacked and pillaged by Sultanates of Deccan
plateau. What started as a small Mysuru (in yellow below), grew in
strength and peaked by 1782 when Hyder Ali had taken over from Wodeyar
rulers. Hyder Ali was employed by Wodeyars, but he tricked his way into
taking over a kingdom. At the peak of Mysuru, the boundaries reached
well into today’s central Telangana, half of today’s Tamil Nadu, half of
today’s Rayala Seema (AP) and northern Kerala. It did not however
contain the northern edges of Karnataka, which were firmly with
Sultans/Nizams of Deccan. Bengaluru started growing rapidly during this
phase with palaces, forts, gardens, trade etc.

Then Tipu
died fighting the British in a series of wars at the end of 18th
century. That was the biggest turning point for today’s Karnataka
region. British divided the Kannada speaking areas into many dominions.
They gave away the north western parts to Bombay (Marthas), North East
to Hyderabad (Nizam), south west, south and south east to Madras
(British). The might of Kannada empires since 4th century CE on the
western part of south India collapsed. Mysuru became a landlocked
dominion of the British empire and struggled over the next 150 years.
Kannada speakers got spread out into multiple provinces/states losing
unity and cohesion for the next 150 years. Since the original question
was related to Tamil, you can see that today’s Coimbatore, Erode, Krishnagiri, Hosur, Palghat (Kerala now), Ooty etc. were all a part of Mysuru
before British took them over, and merged with Madras. That was a big
turning point in the history of south India, languages, rivers etc. Even
the Mettur dam region in Tamil Nadu today, the biggest dam on Kaveri
river, was a part of Mysuru kingdom a little over 200 years ago. Most of
today’s south India’s river sharing, border overlaps, linguistic fights
etc. have roots in that major surgery that British did.

Source: The Tiger and the ThistleThen what
British did was to let Mysuru keep the Bengaluru city proper (the Pete
area we talked about above). They build a big garrison and new
cantonment in the north east of the city. They loved the weather of the
city and lived in the cantonment. Since their capital was Madras in the
south, they brought in lots of Tamil and Telugu people into the
cantonment for various army and service related jobs. The oldest
engineering regiment of Indian army today, is incidentally from the same
cantonment area of Bengaluru (Madras Engineering Group), which is right
next o Halasuru lake! The map below is from 1914, by which, the new MG
Road had clearly divided the older Pete city of Bengaluru from the new
cantonment area of Bengaluru.

Source: Baedeker Indien 1914 MapsThen the
city grew immensely after independence - primarily due to the
availability of technical resources, education and great weather. Today,
the city is the second biggest in India in terms of area (after
Dilli/NCR, though they have multiple municipalities), having 198 wards. The older pete parts of the city are
hidden in the central ward around 109 (Chikka pete). The cantonment area
of British is around ward 90 (Halasuru). The city has grown on all 360
degrees, almost reaching Tamil Nadu at ward 192 and 191. In the north it
is growing so fast now, that from the international airport in the
north, you can travel to Andhra Pradesh border faster than the southern
edge of the city!

Source: Maps Of India

The
city has grown so big today that you can almost walk to Tamil Nadu
(Hosur) in the south East from ward 192 (Begur). It is just around 10 KM
and in another 5 years, the city might actually grow right to Tamil
Nadu border!

Hope this long explanation gave
you a history of Bengaluru and Karnataka, how it got the name, historic
pete parts that thrived for 400+ years, historic boundary, British
arrival into cantonment, migrations and the 360 degree growth today.

In
summary, Bengaluru has always been a Kannada speaking city since Kempe
Gowda’s times. But it has absorbed Telugu, Tamil, Urdu, Malayalam,
Marathi, Tulu, Konkani, Hindi and much more over the centuries. Today it
has the largest population of migrants from North Eastern states in
south India. I don’t remember ever from my school days long ago, when we
had less than 5 languages in our class room :) During my college days, I
remember just in 5 KM drive from Majestic to MG Road, I could see
Kannada, Telugu, Hindi, English, Tamil and Malayalam movies in theaters,
all running house full!

So it is a a city for
everyone. Respect the diversity, respect the willingness of the city to
absorb people from all corners of India, and still keep harmony for most
part.

Why is Congress losing its ground in India?A
cursory look at the political map of India reveals that the Congress
rules some patches at the margins with only Karnataka, Punjab and Himachal
Pradesh left as the proper in-land states..

I tried to answer with March 2017 current assessment of Indian politics. See if you agree with me.

Congress is losing during the 2010s mainly because of the following:

1) An ailing President, who does not give up the top post.

Sonia
Gandhi has been the President of Congress for nearly 20 years now. By
far that is the longest stint in Congress party’s history, even if you
go back to pre independence era. No one held for so long the top post.
Congress talks of Muslims, Dalits, Poor etc., but never thought of
giving the much coveted top post to any of them.

Sonia
was doing well with well informed strategists for the first 10 years
into her presidency. But then her health has started giving way. No one
knows where she goes for medical treatment, what illnesses she has, who
pays, how serious is her condition etc. Only half news and rumours float
around. This is Congress party’s big weakness now. With a strong
unbeatable Amit Shah- Narendra Modi combo sweeping India, an ailing and
at times untraceable Congress President will weaken lot of plans and
strategy. When Modi can do 100s of big rallies and road shows in a year,
Congress can’t even match with 10 big rallies with Sonia as star
campaigner. That is hurting.

2) A reluctant and incompetent Vice President

Rahul
Gandhi is undoubtedly Congress party’s biggest weakness now. His track
record is horrible, and in any corporate setup, such a Vice President
would have been fired long ago. But as Congress party always runs around
the Nehru-Gandhi family, he has to be kept in the center, with more
capable mass leaders running around him like electrons around a
Nehru-Gandhi nucleus!

Here is a famous joke about him floating on Twitter. It tells you everything in succinct terms.

And,
he also has the same problem as his mother. He disappears out of India
for longer periods without anyone knowing what is happening. You can’t
run a party successfully with millions of workers and supporters, if you
have mother and son combo at the top, be unaccountable in most cases
and untraceable on occasions.

And
interestingly, wherever Congress is still existing, like Karnataka and
Punjab, it is mainly because of capable local leaders like Siddaramaiah
and Amarinder Singh. Not because of Sonia or Rahul. Amarinder might even
have strategically kept Rahul out of Punjab campaigns recently.

3) Lack of vision that matches with the vision of 21st century India.

Ask
any Congress loyalist. What are the top 5 schemes or projects for India
today? They will repeat the same things that were there during Indira
Gandhi’s time. But young India is demanding much more. Modi’s Jan Dhan
Yojana, Digital India, Standup India, Skill India are the kind of things
young India wants. Not the same old Garibi hatao slogans and
obsolete NREGA kind of artificial employment generation schemes of
Congress. The very reason Congress was reduced to just 7 seats in a 403
member assembly of UP recently, shows that people have totally dumped
Congress. Even the most loyal vote banks of Congress has been distancing
itself out.

4) Most of its core political strategy is taken away by BJP.

Congress
had great years between 1950s and 1980s. Mainly it was due to social
engineering across castes and religions, and pro poor socialistic
freebies. But now BJP has worked out its own social engineering. That
has made Congress vote bank disappear in most states. Secondly, India
has moved on and freebies don’t win elections anymore. India needs real
work like LPG cylinders in crores of rural homes, electrification of the
remotest villages, 10s of crores of new bank accounts, demonetization
that the poor perceive as hurting the black money hoarding rich.. Most
of Congress’ agenda and vote bank has been snatched by clever moves of
BJP. Also, Congress playing second fiddle to regional satraps like Lalu,
Mulayam and Karunanidhi is hurting even more. But who has time to sit
and discuss all these? See reasons 1 and 2 above to know the core
reasons again.

5) Unable to shrug off the SCAM taint.

During
this decade, Congress means 2G scam, Coal scam, CWG scam and a host of
other scams. It even made to recent UP election as SCAM acronym, but
unfortunately Rahul Gandhi did not even understand the severity of that.
He tried to snub Modi by owning SCAM acronym which made Rahul a
laughing stock. Results were there to see after a few weeks. Congress
decimated again. Congress needs fresh faces. Because right from Sonia
Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, all the big faces are scam tainted now. Sonia
and Rahul are out on bail in the National Herald corruption case.
So anytime Congress opens the mouth on corruption of other parties,
people will ask about Congress mega scams. That is hurting Congress at
perception level.

6) Last and most importantly, unable to make head or tail of how to handle the Modi TsuNaMo sweeping India.

It
is so serious now that for every one person living in a Congress ruled
state, there are seven people living in a BJP ruled state. BJP has
almost hit 2/3rd of India in terms of state governments. And they are
nowhere near peak, as there is a lot of ground to still take over along
the eastern coast of India. Narendra Modi’s clean image, hard working
nature, and outstanding clarity in convincing a voter, is unmatched by
the opposition. The only thing Congress and its allies are doing is to
bad mouth Modi, which he is cleverly using to get even more votes!

So if Congress has to regain ground and relevance pan India, it has to:-

Get
better leadership. Rahul is not the right man and Sonia is one step
into retirement. Priyanka Vadra is just for guest appearance. Old
leaders like Kharge, Chidambaram, Gogoi, Digvijaya are not going to cut
any longer. Get 15 to 20 young and visionary leaders, with one pan India
appeal leader at the top. Nehru-Gandhi family’s charm has faded and
next in lines are not at all going to help Congress.

Get better
vision, particularly more positive views to attract Indian youth.
Minority appeasement, caste combinations and scaring India of
RSS/BJP/Hindutva are so 20th century. Won’t work now.

Look at
long term planning for 2024. Modi’s wave is so popular now, that they
stand little chance to challenge him in 2019 in the current
organizational setup. Keep in mind - Congress is BJP’s only alternative
nation-wide at present. AAP, TMC, DMK, ADMK, TDP, TRS, SP, BSP, RJD, SS,
SAD, JDU, JDS, CPM, BJD etc. can’t even win 5 seats across 5 different
states. Congress has the brand and ready made cadre pan India. It is
just in a self destructing mode due to horrible management at the top.
Start from top, and change will bring fruits by 2024.

PS: All images from Google Pictures. All credits to the original photographer or owner of the picture, who placed it for public consumption.

Plenty of good minds analyzed the issues and provided some answers. Since I am born and brought up in this city, and have been driving here since late 1980s, I thought I can pitch in to some extent.

So reproducing my answer here.

Firstly, you should know the scale of Bengaluru traffic growth:

The number of vehicles in Mumbai is around 27,00,000.

The number of vehicles added by Bengaluru in just 8 years till 2016 is 29,00,000+.

That should tell a lot of things about why Bengaluru’s traffic problems are humongous.

Today,
Bengaluru has close to 68,00,000 vehicles, which is the second highest
in India after Dilli metro area. But here is a big difference. Dilli
(NCR) has a huge metro train network (213 KM, 160 stations) almost
completely sponsored by the central government (pool of all states’
money). It also has a much bigger and wider road network built using
central money over the decades. There are still massive jams in Dilli,
but that is another discussion.

Coming to Bengaluru? Why are Bengaluru’s roads so heavily jammed all the time?

1) The primary reason is
that India has this awful 4 metro city policy for decades. That means,
only Dilli, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai were metro cities and they
qualified for various metro city related infrastructure and other
benefits. The other cities which grew up at equally or much faster rate,
like Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Amdavad etc. did not qualify for the
metro city tag, and hence central assistance. That to some extent
seriously hampered the infrastructure in these second list cities. If
the central governments had provided even a basic suburban train system
covering the key areas of Bengaluru by 1990 or even 2000, things would
have been a lot different today. You have nothing to travel from
Banashankari to Yalahanka directly. You have nothing to travel from
Indiranagar to Vijayanagar directly (other than newly opened Metro). You
have to go on the road, or depend upon the new Metro which is
progressing at 5 to 10 KM pace per year, making it utterly useless to
reduce traffic.

2) The second reason is geography.
Unlike Mumbai, Chennai or other coastal cities, Bengaluru (and
Hyderabad etc.) can grow 360 degrees. There is no river or sea or
mountain stopping the city from growing in all directions. So as of 2011
figures (Business Standard), Bengaluru urban district grew at an
unimaginable level of 46.68% between 2001 and 2011. That’s because the
city can grow 360′ and it literally grew on all sides. With more people
coming in from all corners of India, there is no way infrastructure can
keep up. No city in the world can handle a 46.68% decadal population
growth with timely infrastructure. With the heavy corruption in
Bengaluru’s civic authorities, it makes it even more susceptible for
lagging behind. The numbers below are not exactly metro area population,
but urban district as defined by the authorities.

3) The third reason: It is the massive IT industry which is exporting well over Rs.2,25,000,00,00,000 each year, is located mostly in the east to south east corridor.
And that is the area least well connected by any train system. None of
the current Metro tracks even go near the Electronic city (south East)
to ITPL (East) corridor. This primary IT corridor is well over 25 KM in
length (Electronic city, Bommanahalli, Silk Board, Sarjapur Road,
Marathahalli, Kundalahalli, ITPL, Whitefield). With more than 75% of the
city’s population staying in south, west, center and north, a huge
traffic jam gets created in any road that leads to IT corridor. Be it
Silk board, or KR Puram bridge, or HAL road.. you take a road and you
will see massive jams. It’s just volume. With India’s second highest
number of vehicles on the roads, and with just 18,000 KM of roads for 1
crore population and over 4000 sq KM area, you have a perfect recipe for
jams. Even though Bengaluru has the best Volvo AC bus system in India
(Dilli coming close enough), the narrow roads won’t let any bus cover
the distance in reasonable time.

4) The fourth reason
is that Bengaluru is the only city other than Dilli, which has both
North South Corridor and Golden Quadrilateral highway systems passing
through the city. Since Mumbai and Chennai road is one of the heaviest
traffic in India today, it was passing straight through the city causing
immeasurable jams. Now NICE road is to some extent relieving that via
bypass. But the Hyderabad to Kanyakumari north south traffic has no way
but to go through the city, causing heavy jams even in night times. Same
thing with Mysuru to Tirupati west to east traffic. No place to go
other than city. So lakhs of interstate transport and tour vehicles get
caught up in the jams, when ideally they should have been bypassing the
city at 30 KM outside the city.

So those are the four biggest reasons for traffic jams.

Now what to do between now and 2025?

Action 1:
Central governments neglected the infrastructure needs of Bengaluru
forever. Now it is too late, but at least they can do some national
highway periphery roads, rapid trains, elevated trains or at least 25%
of the money they give to Dilli Metro, to Namma Metro. Remember, Dilli
metro got Rs.5579 crore in 2016 budget, probably more than all other
cities’ metro projects in India. Central government should start
treating other cities also a bit better now, and give a few 1000 crores
to Bengaluru metro (and Hyd, Pune, Jaipur etc.) each year to help with
infrastructure. Nothing in the world can replace trains in terms of mass
transportation. Bengaluru Metro, elevated trains and suburban trains
should be the focus crisscrossing the city, creating at least 200
stations by 2025. That’s the BEST solution, else we are doomed. You
can’t just create enough roads or fly overs. They won’t solve the
traffic issue. You will see more than 1 crore vehicles in Bengaluru by
2025. Since the central government gets 10s of 1000s of crores in tax
revenue from Bengaluru each year, it should give back a big portion to create world class train infrastructure
of at least 500 KM. Right now Metro is just around 40KM and won’t help
in any traffic reduction. The state just does not have enough revenue to
invest 10s of 1000s of crores in building new train infrastructure. The
center should also invest in giving bypass on the eastern side
for North South National Highway that has no where to go today other
than the city. A 6 or 8 lane peripheral national highway on the eastern
side of the city, bypassing the current road systems will take away a
lot of big vehicle pressure from roads. In short, the city needs massive
amount of trains, and a full 360 degree bypass roads for interstate
traffic. Right now it has only about 120 degree real bypass (NICE, that
too super expensive toll) available.

Action 2: The state should work on satellite cities or small clusters
using SMART or AMRUT city projects around Bengaluru. This is
particularly needed in the Hosakote to Sarjapur regions. Unless you make
people travel to IT corridor from east, rather than west, things won’t
improve.

Action 3: The state government should work on moving industries
to the North West, South West or North. Western Bengaluru is heavily
populated (Basaweshwara Nagar, Rajaji Nagar, VijayaNagar, Mahalakshmi
Layout, Peenya), but the jobs are mostly in the south east and far east.
So by bringing in industries to the west (Magadi road), north west
(Tumkur road) or south west (Mysuru road), a lot of traffic problems can
be solved. It takes 2 hours to travel from Basaveshwara Nagar to
Whitefield today. If the industry was near Peenya, it would be 30
minutes! Another area to focus heavily is the northern side near the
Devanahalli area. If more people move north (water is a big issue
there), things might get a bit easy for south east.

Unless
a serious coordinated effort is done in these 3 areas, we are going
nowhere other than making jokes about Silk Board and KR Puram bridge
jams..

The latest was from near Silk Board..

Driver to a neighbour: “Sir, why are you walking home? Shall I give you a drop?”.

Walker:
“I would have loved to come with you, but I am in a hurry to reach home
before my children come at 7 PM. So I am walking” :)