Every game now carries a life-or-death feel for teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. Selection committee chairman Mike Bobinski said they “try not to overweight what happens here this week in relation to the rest of the season,” but they are definitely watching.

BAD DAY: Baylor

Outcome: Lost to Oklahoma State, 74-72, in the Big 12 quarterfinals. In a must-win game, Baylor came out flat. The Bears were down 18 at the half and dominated the second half but came up short as OSU hit 7-of-8 free throws in the final minute. Pierre Jackson’s 3-pointer at the buzzer just missed.

Prognosis: The ever-inconsistent Bears needed at least this one to secure an at-large bid. With only 17 Division I wins and a 3-11 record vs. RPI top 50, it’s hard to make an NCAA case for Baylor, especially considering its three losses to triple-digit foes (Charleston, Texas and Northwestern). Just a week ago, they manhandled Kansas and now they’re likely headed to the NIT. Crazy. But that’s Baylor.

BAD DAY: Arizona State

Outcome: Lost to UCLA, 78-75, in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. The Sun Devils were up by as many as 15 with 16 ½ minutes left in the game but allowed UCLA stiff twins David and Travis Wear to score 17 points combined down the stretch to steal the win.

Prognosis: The Sun Devils probably will be left out of the NCAA Tournament. They needed this win in the worst way. ASU is now 4-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-9 against the top 100. And coach Herb Sendek’s embarrassing non-conference scheduling (strength of schedule No. 280) likely will kill their NCAA dreams.

GOOD DAY: Tennessee

Outcome: Beat Mississippi State, 69-53, in the SEC second round. Guard Jordan McRae continued his hot streak, scoring 17 points to lead the Vols to victory. He’s averaging 22.3 points over the last nine games, all but one a win.

Prognosis: A win over the RPI no. 226 team changes nothing. The Vols still are very much on the NCAA cut line. They are 4-4 against RPI top 50 and 9-9 vs. top 100. Friday’s Alabama-Tennessee game could well be an NCAA play-in game. Tip is set for 3:30 p.m. ET in Nashville.

BAD DAY: Villanova

Outcome: Lost to Louisville, 74-55, in the Big East quarterfinals. Some nights, ‘Nova looks like an NCAA Tournament team and other nights not. Well, this was a bad night. The Wildcats turned the ball over 25 times and never were in this one.

Prognosis: The Wildcats probably are safe, having previously beaten RPI top 15 clubs Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette and Syracuse. However, their only road/neutral wins over top-100 clubs were at UConn and then St. John’s in the first round. ‘Nova is still just 5-8 vs. RRI top 50.

BAD DAY: Cal

Outcome: Lost to Utah, 79-69 in overtime, in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. Justin Cobbs and Allen Crabbe combined for five 3-pointers and 47 points, but it wasn’t enough. The Bears yielded a whopping 20 points in the five-minute OT to put themselves back on the bubble.

Prognosis: The Bears should be OK, despite Thursday night’s embarrassment against Utah (RPI 167)—their first “bad loss” of the season. Cal is only 3-5 vs. RPI top 50 and 6-10 vs. top 100 so it’s far from a lock.

GOOD DAY: Maryland

Outcome: Beat Wake Forest, 75-62, in the ACC first round. Dez Wells scored 21 points and Alex Len and Seth Allen added 11 each as the Terps had to rally in the second half to win, holding the Deacons without a field goal for 8 ½ minutes to gain control.

Prognosis: Beating the RPI 166 club on a neutral site changes nothing. The Terps need at least a couple marquee wins this week to get into the NCAAs. They are just 2-5 vs. RPI top 50 and haven’t beaten a top 150 club away from home. An embarrassing non-con schedule (No. 297) will be hard to overcome, too.

BAD DAY: Louisiana Tech

Outcome: Lost to Texas-San Antonio, 74-67, in WAC quarterfinals. Needing to run the table in the WAC, LaTech couldn’t even beat a nine-win team. Kannon Burrage had 26 points and 13 rebounds as the Roadrunners, now 10-21, pulled the shocker.

Prognosis: It’s NIT time. Entering the final week of the regular season, the Bulldogs were 26-3 overall and 16-0 in the WAC, ranked in the top 25 and close to locking up an at-large bid. Since? They’ve lost to New Mexico State, Denver and now UTSA. The NCAA dreams are dead.

BAD DAY: Colorado

Outcome: Lost to Arizona, 79-69, in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. The Buffaloes, who trailed by as many as 14 in the second half, got to within three with 2 ½ minutes left and again with 1:03 left, but Arizona went 6-for-6 from the free-throw line in the final minute to close the deal.

Prognosis: The Buffaloes likely were in anyway, but a neutral-court win over Arizona would have sealed it. They do have home wins over RPI top-50 clubs Colorado State, Cal and Arizona but still are only 3-5 vs. top 50. Unlike some bubble teams, Colorado has had some success away from home, beating Oregon, Stanford and Baylor.

GOOD DAY: Illinois/BAD DAY: Minnesota

Outcome: Illinois beat Minnesota, 51-49, in the Big Ten Tournament first round. In a game full of drama--enhanced by the ever-excitable Gus Johnson on the call—Brandon Paul dribbled the clock down and then hit a pull-up 15-footer at the buzzer to give Illinois the win. The final play was set up when Minnesota star Andre Hollins stepped out of bounds with 14 seconds left.

Prognosis: Both teams are going to the NCAAs, but Minnesota coach Tubby Smith might not rest easy this weekend. He’ll be rooting against all other bubble teams from here on out just to be sure. Minnesota does have five top-50 wins, including over Michigan State and Indiana, and a non-con strength of schedule of No. 12. Still, after a 15-1 start to the season, Minnesota is just 5-11 since New Year’s Day. For Illinois, this was the Illini’s sixth top-50 win, including over IU, Gonzaga, Ohio State and Butler.

BAD DAY: Cincinnati

Outcome: Lost to Georgetown, 61-43, in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. The Bearcats didn’t even hit double-digits until 4:37 was left in the first half but did manage to take a 33-31 lead with 16:20 left before Otto Porter took over and Georgetown pulled away.

Prognosis: The Bearcats should be safe after winning Tuesday night, but a win over Georgetown would’ve cemented an at-large bid. Instead, coach Mick Cronin will have to sweat it out. Cincinnati is just 1-4 vs. RPI top 25 and 4-9 vs. RPI top 50.

GOOD DAY: Iowa

Outcome: Beat Northwestern, 73-59, in the Big Ten first round. It’s rare for a team to shoot 37 percent from the field and yet win by double-digits. Melsahn Basabe came up big (10 points, 12 rebounds, five blocks).

Prognosis: Beating the RPI 160 club on a neutral site changes nothing. Despite a 21-11 record, Hawkeyes have a lot of work to do. They’re only 4-8 against RPI top 50, failing to win any of those tests away from home. They need to beat Michigan State on Friday night (9 p.m. ET) to make a strong NCAA case.

GOOD DAY: Iowa State/BAD DAY: Oklahoma

Outcome: Iowa State beat Oklahoma, 73-66, in Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. Will Clyburn scored 10 consecutive points late in the second half to turn a deficit into a comfortable win.

Prognosis: Iowa State should be comfortable now, but Oklahoma now will have a few fretful days. This is the Cyclones’ first RPI top 50 win away from home, so it was a big win. They’re only 4-7 against RPI top 50 so a good seed is gone, no matter what happens the rest of the way in the Big 12 Tournament. The Sooners played a good non-con schedule (No. 14) but are only 3-7 against RPI top 50 and have only one RPI top 100 road win.

BAD NIGHT: Arkansas

Outcome: Lost to Vanderbilt, 75-72, in the SEC first round. The Hogs’ pressure defense forced only 12 Vandy turnovers, and they hit only 4-of-16 3-pointers in losing its most important game of the year.

Prognosis: It’s over. The Hogs can beat almost anybody at home. Anywhere else, well, that’s a problem. They’ve failed to beat any RPI top 100 opponents away from Fayetteville this year, losing in all eight chances and going 1-12 away from home overall.

GOOD DAY: Southern Miss

Outcome: Beat Alabama-Birmingham, 66-61, in the Conference USA quarterfinals. Dwayne Davis and Neil Watson combined for 43 points as the Golden Eagles were never challenged.

Prognosis: The Eagles still are on the outside looking in but at least they’re still alive. Beating the No. 143 RPI club isn’t going to move the needle. With a 0-5 record against RPI top 50 and their best win over Denver (RPI 59) at home, the Eagles pretty much have to win the C-USA Tournament and the automatic bid to get in the NCAAs. That likely means going through No. 20 Memphis in the final.