Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

Raptor mentions from Part 1:

New post-lockout NBA reality no. 2: You definitely shouldn't pay $8 million a year for non-impact perimeter players (Caron Butler alert!); you probably shouldn't pay $13 million a year for Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala (sorry, fellas); and you DEFINITELY shouldn't pay Rudy Gay $18 million a year unless you're forced to at gunpoint. There's too much available cheap perimeter labor for defense and 3s. Why pay Rudy Gay $18 million when you can pay Jimmy Butler $1.5 million? Why? WHYYYYYYY????? The one exception: Anderson, if only because I don't mind spending $8 million a year on someone who takes SEVEN 3s a game and makes 39 percent of them. He's an expensive luxury, but not prohibitively expensive.

Anyway, looking through the four drafts from 2008 to 2011: Anderson went 21st. Leonard went 15th. Hayward: ninth. Butler: 30th. Earl Clark: 14th. Chase Budinger: 44th. Klay Thompson: 11th. Chandler Parsons: 38th. Paul George: 10th. Wayne Ellington: 28th. Lance Stephenson: 40th. Danny Green: 46th. Nic Batum: 25th. Brandon Rush (out for the year, but still): 13th. I just listed 14 guys who could help anyone's 2013 playoff rotation if they were healthy; all make 3s except for Stephenson, and NONE were drafted in the top eight. Meanwhile, you have Toronto shelling out $23.1 million next year just for Gay and Landry Fields. Maybe it should use its fancy camera technology to capture the motions of a smart GM.

On to our toughest 2013 omissions from "least tough" to "toughest" …

Evan Fournier: The captain of this year's Bill Simmons All-Stars for "The Guys I Inexplicably Like Much More Than I Should Probably Like Them," joining Shavlik Randolph (check out his per-minutes); Alec Burks (puzzlingly buried by the wildly incompetent Ty Corbin); Donatas Motiejunas (I bet he sneaks into the top 50 next year); Terrence Ross (I just like him); Kyle Singler (destined for a second life as a Spurs role player); Brandan Wright (figured out how to game the flaw in Hollinger's PER system — he always gives you 14 good minutes, but if you play him 40 minutes, he'll still give you 14 good minutes and the other 26 will be atrocious); Kosta Koufos (although it's an explicable likability in his case); Wayne Ellington (did we ever figure out why Memphis salary-dumped him right before the Rudy Gay salary dump?); Jimmer Fredette (I still think he'll be heard from someday on a good team, à la J.J. Redick, even if there's a 65 percent chance this point will be thrown back in my face on Twitter five years from now); Shaun Livingston (a masterful comeback as a fun-to-play-with veteran on a likably crappy Cavs team); Patrick Beverley (not to be confused with Rich Peverley); Reggie Jackson (looming as an under-the-radar playoff X factor off OKC's bench); and one of the Morris twins (can't remember which one). Please don't confuse this team with the Jordan Crawford All-Stars (for players who make me want to swallow my own tongue).

45. Enes Kanter
44. Jonas Valanciunas
Fun little battle of promising/crafty/athletic big guys who are either wildly overrated or wildly underrated within the league (depending on who's talking). Kanter produced nearly every time Utah played him big minutes (including last month's eye-opening 23-22 game against Charlotte); that's the biggest reason why the Jazz will probably sign-and-trade Al Jefferson this summer. He also inspired this thought-provoking e-mail from Patrick in Memphis: "If you wanted to jeer Enes Kanter, are you going with the anus or penis pronunciation? I feel like it could go either way."

As for Valanciunas, the promising Raptors big man who's been averaging a 15-7 since mid-March, here's a true story: When Sam Presti was quietly shopping James Harden last October, he called Toronto to feel out a Jonas package. And got rebuffed. Quickly.15 Let's give Jonas the edge over Enes if only because Weezer never wrote a song called "My Name Is Enes."

15 Our pal Chris Broussard told me this one and nearly made my eyeballs fly out of my head. But I got it confirmed — it's true.

I get to post my thoughts on this a nth time, having just posted this in the Everything JV thread....

I've said this before somewhere, but I'm so glad this didn't happen. People might say Houston was smart for the deal, but giving up Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb is not the same thing as giving up JV. At the time, it seemed pretty certain Harden was going to be an all-star SG, but I don't know if anyone predicted he'd be able to carry the load he has. And I'm a gigantic Harden fan. He's my favorite SG in the league. But I still wouldn't have given up JV. But if they had wanted Demar and Ross (to mirror Martin and Lamb), I would've done that. I would've offered them their pick of anybody from the roster except JV.

Basically, at the time of the trade, it's a sure all-star SG for a C who has a pretty good shot at being an all-star. Or put the way I see it, if Harden's a top 5 SG, and JV has a fair shot at being a top 5 C, I'd keep the top 5 C every time. I assume Colangelo asked if there were other pieces they wanted, but I'm sure there's no player other than JV that OKC wanted a deal built around.

*I'm really incredibly high on JV though. I think the list of players I'd trade him for (without having doubts) is 2 long: James and Durant. I see JV as being fully in control of high how he goes, and given his combination of size, athleticism, skills, motor, intangibles...just everything is there, so the sky's the limit. He's so young and I think he's the best prospect the Raps have ever had.

to me Kevin Martin+Jeremy Lamb= Derozan + Ross, the game changer ? our own freaken draft pick. That's what drove me nuts as soon as i heard the trade. Bargs might not have sucked so much if he wasn't handed a franchise without earning anything. you know making him work for his min, his money, his bricks.

No one talks about the fact that James Harden is playing in a Phoenix Suns 2.0 system which obviously will inflate his offensive numbers. His real impact will be shown this playoffs -- whether he can lead his Rockets over his former team. I enjoy watching James Harden & I hold the opinion that he is one of the best offensive players in the league, but he his defense is decent at best. Add the fact that at the time of the trade, Jonas is an unproven commodity and therefore, we would have given up Ross or Davis [or both] to make up for the draft pick that we don't have, then all of a sudden, we have gaping holes [LOL] on our roster.

But I have to admit, it's really fun watching him put in work on offense. His foot work and creativity off the bounce is top notch.

“I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

i think it’s hilarious and not-surprising at all that this vote currently stands at 5 to 2 in favor of ‘nay’.

hey you know how there’s that thread about hollinger’s pre-season win prediction and he was dead on while every single one of you over-predicted except for the brain? and you guys are gettin’ all self-reflective about maybe being a little too optimistic? or there was that other pre-season thread where chuck thought we’d finish last in the division and many of you freaked out and decried how little he actually knows about basketball and how much he hates canada etc... he was also right. it seems to me that often the american media many of the lot on this board tend to resent so much is a lot more accurate in their assessment of this team, precisely because they don’t give a shit and therefore can look up and down the roster and actually be objective.

anyhow, i think yer doin it again.

i make this trade in a second. it is a bona-fide, guaranteed, 23 year old franchise player years away from his prime and actually worth a max contract, for a player we all hope and has a chance to become a franchise player, but who will take at least a few years to do so.

and i love JV and agree enthusiastically with all these things:

white men can't jump wrote:

*I'm really incredibly high on JV though. I see JV as being fully in control of high how he goes, and given his combination of size, athleticism, skills, motor, intangibles...just everything is there, so the sky's the limit. He's so young and I think he's the best prospect the Raps have ever had.

but it’s still not even a question for me. take the sure thing every time.

Never, It's much easier to get a star wing player than a star big. JV is very rare

you can flip this around so easily to say:

in a rapidly changing league where there's such a huge premium on 3 pt shooting and ball movement, where every one of the best teams does not have a franchise traditional big except san antonio and (arguably) memphis, and yet all of them have franchise perimeter players, do you need one?

I'm not sure if I'd trade Jonas for Anthony Davis at this point. Call me foolish.

“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

I would, uhm... Ugh, I would probably do so, because of that fact Harden is arguably a top 5 wing player, an all-star already at young age, and arguably a superstar already. Now, if we include Derozan in a deal - so no log-jam at the shooting guard - that means we'd have to get some SERIOUS assets in return. Jonas's potential is extremely high, and Derozan is one of the better shooting guards in the league with still much, much more room to grow.

Straight up deal? Jonas for Harden? Sure, but I would do it with a tear running down my face.

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

I would hesitate, then probably reject the offer. Harden wanted a max extension. That pretty much would kill it for me. But I don't think I could reject it immediately. That's what the article insinuates. I don't even understand how that is possible.

I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

$55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.

I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

$55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.

I think you are comparing apples to oranges.

Your example makes the assumption that the pieces Houston gave up were equal to the Raptors pieces. I don't think that is accurate. I think JV is more valuable than the future firsts from Houston because you knew what you were getting and it was a piece that OKC is in desperate need of long term and a player they coveted. Clearly the Houston package was not their first choice and did not address the Thunder long term needs at C.

I think if this deal was done you would have seen JV, possibly 2nd rd picks, and salary cap equalizer for Harden's max incoming salary (because you only do this if he agrees to the extension). Harden would have become a PPP player much like DeRozan right now where his outgoing trade value would have been $5.8M but his incoming trade value would have been around $13M (average of final year of rookie deal and extension). Raps would have had to send out ~$8.5M (DD pre-extension $3.4, Ed $2.2, JV $3.4 = $9).

I would not have done the trade for JV either. C's are the hardest position to find in the NBA and we saw glimpses of what JV can be and he is only 20. I think you need to give JV a couple of more years in the league before you can truly make the call if it was a good decision or not. The instant gratification would have been to get Harden but longer term I think it will be in the Raptors best interests to do what they did. Time will tell.

The two first's are difficult since the Raptors had none to offer. But I would imagine that OKC would have taken JV instead as that is what they wanted.

Giving up JV/Ross/Jose/2nd rounder for Harden seems like a lot, and I'm glad we didn't do it. Harden at that time was only a 6th man in OKC and was never given a chance to lead.. he proved everyone wrong but that was still a gamble at that time.