Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. Once again, I’ve stripped the records clean and scoured the AFL for some numbers different to those we spend our days staring at… Staring at in the hope that one day we’ll all of sudden have a magic epiphany; and all of the secrets of the DT Universe will be revealed.

Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball to peer into the future, but what I can do is look back at the past week in the AFL to give y’all this week’s numbers.

1 – People that actually liked the look of the Bomber’s ‘clash’ strip they played in against the Saints at the weekend. Not sure Hirdy even liked it, with many believing it was more grey than black – it was a definite fail in my books; and somewhat of an eyesore to watch with our HD TV. This was one of those times I actually wish my TV was black and white.

3 – Times that Captain Fantastic Matthew ‘Go Bother Griffen’ Boyd has graced the field for my team in 2012 (since his inclusion in R8). With most coaches opting for the reliable Ablett or Swan, Boyd often goes unnoticed. However he hasn’t let me down at all this year, with scores of 128, 133 and 133 in his games with the big C. Let’s hope he can back it up with another 130 in R16.

4 –At this point in the season there are usually two things we in the AFL world are sure of: who’s vying for a finals spot; and who’s the favourite for a spot in the Grand Final. But 2012 is different at least in one way. Like previous years, there’s a swag of teams in the running for September action – with Geelong, St Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, North and Freo all wanting one of those last few spots in the 8. But as at R16 we have 4 teams atop the ladder on 44 points. With Collingwood blowing the chance to be outright first, they now sit 4th on % behind Sydney, West Coast and Adelaide in the first for the minor premiership. Whilst we’ve had the luxury of an outright favourite in Collingwood or Geelong in recent times, 2012 is a different scene – arguably the most competitive in a long time. You’d be a brave man to put money on the makeup of the top-4 or 8 at this stage.

5 – Cheers to Mick Cooper for this one. As a Pendlebury owner myself I have felt the pain each and every one these 5 weeks he’s sat on my bench with a ‘suspected 1-2 week injury’. In hindsight, it was a fractured tibia so we should’ve known better. But it doesn’t make us feel better when we could’ve side traded to a Watson or Thompson, giving us an extra couple of hundred points to boost our ranking…

7 –Number of potential top-8 match ups that Geelong face in their last 8 game run to September. Currently sitting on outright 7th, the defending champions will have to work for their glory if they’re to go back to back in 2012. A loss against Collingwood next week could have them as low as 10th, whilst a win may see them usurp Essendon in the top 6. With games against the Pies, Bombers, Crows, Hawks and Eagles in the next 5 matches – it’s time to see what this ‘once-in-a-generation’ Cats team is made of.

8 – The number 100 is a pedagogical symbol of achievement in the land of DT. To ‘tonne it up’ is synonymous with a good game as we know it. Keeping track of my scores through the year, I’ve also noted how many players in my team has been ‘tonne-ing up’ each week. With an average number of 100+ scorers just shy of 8, I’ve had a solid spread this year. However things are on the up with more premo’s taking the field. The past two weeks has seen team McRath tally 11 and 14 scorers above the mark respectively.

14 – 2012 has seen the GWS boys hold strong against opposition teams, traditionally only allowing in 3-4 100+ scores in any given week. However R15 saw them finally crack and go for their biggest losing margin in their short history. This consequently saw them give up 11 separate 100+ scorers and (finally getting to the number) 14 different goal scorers. If a few more blokes took advantage of their shots, it very well could’ve easily been as high as 19 goal scorers… Well done Hawthorn.

140 – Equal season-high score of one Brisbane premium Dayne Zorko. Now having a season avg of 98 and a 5-Round average of 114 (including last week’s 69), he is a bonafide star. F7 keeper? Try F4/5 Premo. With the 6th highest DT average of the ‘forwards’ to date, he is there to stay. Should you play him over other guns such as WhiteX and Martin? It’s a yes in my book.

158 – I would love nothing more at this stage than seeing gutless ‘Pies midfielder Sharrod Wellingham sit on the sidelines for the remainder of 2012 after his high hit on Kade Simpson attracted the ire of many Blues’ fans (myself included). For the record, he was never going for the ball and the replay just makes it look even worse – with the vision of poor Simmo unconscious on the ground ingrained into the memory of spectators for good. Likely to now miss 4 weeks after breaking his jaw, thus will end the longest streak in recent times of consecutive games played – Simpson had now played every game since R15, 2005 and should return next month to begin his streak again.

162 – Unlike the Suns last year, GWS has managed to avoid regular thrashings at the hands of their more experienced counterparts. Aside from their shellacking at the hands of North in R2, their average losing margin is that of 77 points. However Sunday may have finally brought the young team to their knees, going onto smash the new boys by a season high 162 points.

Twatter – Your Numbers

After watching this game, I too was astonished at this stat. Usually eager to get at least a few +4’s, Jelwood had to earn his numbers in other areas as he had his first game in a while without a single tackle. Cheers Tom.

Not sure if this is a good number, or a terrible one Cam. But either way, the net DT output from this works out to be – 6. If only Frees For were worth +3… Then we’d all have a team full of West Coast Players (sorry Eagles fans, I couldn’t resist).

After cursing myself for prematurely ditching Broughton early this year, he’s finally starting to justify my decision with a third consecutive week of sub-80 scores; Broughts continues his history of yo-yo scores with a 2nd equal-lowest season score of 59. Fear not owners – he’ll be back at some stage… most likely after a few more aggravated coaches jump ship. Thus explains the rollercoaster ride that is GB. One things’ for sure with me: Never Again.

Close behind: Malceski, Waters, Heppell, Hargrave.

Low BE, High SP

With a tasty low break-even of 48, Adam Goodes is starting to hit his straps after returning from injury 3 weeks ago. With a huge 137 at the weekend in the bank, get on him now whilst he’s at a (surely) season low $369k. With a scoring potential of 110+, he’s a handy upgrade for a topped out Jason Porplyzia ($333k). I don’t have to harp on about it, but to put things into perspective – from Round 16 – Round 24 last year Mr. Double-Brownlow averaged 114 – more than any FWD is currently getting. Check out @Aki_DT for his Dream Team Stock Market later this week for more bargains.

Whore of the Week

Surprising, 2012 has not yet seen Dean Cox nominated for the aptly named Whore of the Week prize. However Round 15 saw the big man dominate North Melbourne, near single-handedly bring the North Supporter’s hopes and dreams back down to Earth with a dull thud. His 148 Points came from 21 touches, 24 hitouts and a team-high 3.1 goals in a well-rounded performance surely worthy of 3 votes.

The Round Up

Highlights – Matty Boyd breaking the 250 as captain yet again; Coxy and Jacobs building up a great ruck partnership for 270 not out; and Zorko showing everyone that last week was a one off with a huge season-equalling 140 to bounce back. R15 was an overall high round if you didn’t have Waters.

Lowlights – Being forced to field a team without 3 premiums is tough in any week. But when you have players like Beau Waters and Stevie Johnson withdraw late, the almost-manageable damage of having Goddard, Pendlebury and Martin out makes for certain carnage. Did anyone have all 5 of these at all?

Team McRath – I’m continuing my late run to the top 2000 by jumping another 3,000 spots in R15 to now sit around 7,000 thanks to my 2nd highest season score of 2319. I’m feverishly low on trades so am praying that the suspensions and injuries will stop. Having the likes of Smedts (71) and Gibson (79) step up in the absence of premiums Goddard and Pendles is very handy though.

With R16 days away, many teams will be gladly welcoming back Scott Pendlebury onto their field, with Goddard and Martin remaining in the doghouse for one more week. With some juicy matchups in the AFL this week, I’m expecting another round of high scores as the season starts to heat up.

Also, if you’re not following me in the Twittersphere, say g’day @McRathDT

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Author: McRath
Who loves a number? McRath loves a number! Not only does he crunch the numbers for his own team, he is an integral member of the DT Talk team across the season providing heaps of great content! Follow him on Twitter: @McRathDT.

Possibly look at Enright and Suckling for the run home if you really must trade. Both are coming into form, and Enright may not get the usual late resting due to the Cats tough draw. Otherwise you are better off holding. Bringing in a gun for the semi-finals means more than limping into the GF to get smashed.

Ok – I’ve got 5 trades left.
I’ll probably need to do something with Waters this week but do I also pull the trigger on Trealor to Goodes given he’ll never be this cheap again?
I have Zorko filling my F7 spot at the moment so Goodes would kind of be a luxury trade.
Thoughts?

I’m in the same boat. I kind of wish Sidebottom got injured for the season to give me a reason to bring Goodes in!
Trying to talk myself into it. If I go Trelour or McDonald to Goodes now, then next LTI in the MIDs/FWDs can be a downgrade, leaving me 6 trades left for the season and +$350k in the bank.

Hi Josh,
One of the least best things about the layout of this site is the need to scroll up and down so much. I’m sorry if it was an accdient. But please don’t ever type out your team like that ever again.

I think calling Wellingham gutless is wrong and a comment by people who more than likely have never played the game at any level before .It all happens so quickly you only get a split second to make a decision and sometimes you choose the wrong one in hindsight. He got the reduction to 3 weeks because of a clean record over many years so to say he’s a king hitter or gutless is a joke. It didnt look good and now he’ll pay the price, move on that’s football.

I’ve played heaps of football… He was a good 2-3 meters away from Kade when he took his eyes off the ball… looked at Simpson and decided to jump at his head leading with the elbow.

Gutless is a bit of a harsh call “stupid” is more fitting.. AFL i s a quick game and they are expected to make decisions in a mater of seconds… he made the decision to hit Kade instead of hold and slow up play…. 5 games should stay at 5.

Shuey… should stay at 2
Lynch…. eh i’ve seen worst let go
Bartel… Should be 3
and the GWS player what a joke… 0 weeks nothing in it
IMO only

4 – Number of seconds he had to react in slow motion
0.5 – Number of seconds he had to react in real time
99 – Percent of people who would jump in that situation to avoid impact on their own head, it’s just a natural reaction.

Number of seconds? I’m the opposite of a Collingwood supporter, but I feel sorry for players who get penalised for accidents, even if it was a bit silly and unfortunate.

Standing out like a sore thumb is 5fer. If you can turn him into Goodes, then you can swap Goodes and Beams, have Beams in your mids, Goodes in your forward line, and keep Zorko on the field with Gibson/Smith and Hall/Dickson as cover. I’d also look at trading Hall before Dickson if you must downgrade.

While Dickson is easier to convert to Goodes, he is much more liekly to play the remainding games in the season compared to Hall, and rookies playing games later in the year can be a DT lifesaver.
That’s just my oppinion, but if it only works with Dickson, bring home the Goodes!

I took the punt and also have 1 trade left but with strong bench cover. That is not strong bench cover.
Waters-Carrazzo good trade.

With your leagues, are you facing easy opposition or tough? Do you really need to do both trades??
A tip I did was focus on one or two leagues, memorise your opposition’s team and build your team on that. If you’re sitting pretty in the top 4 in 2 of your main leagues by a win or two, hold off the trades. Once Martin’s back your team will be good in the forward.

I reckon cop the donut this week and do the Waters-Carrazzo trade.
Hope this helps!

OK i was thinking of trading Beau to someone under 411k such as Dyson heppel and trading Giles to jacobs (who has a BE of 42) that will leave me with 1 trade for LTI. Any thoughts, I will either do this or hold me trades. I am ranked 1st in my league and avg: 1990 due to the MBR…

You’re fielding a strong team, but your bench cover is weak. Ride out the season for as long as you can with those three trades, because if two of those big names go down, Hampton and Spurr won’t get you over the line.

Is anyone thinking of trading Franklin to Goodes. Make money to invest elsewhere? i.e. Turn 1 Premium and a Rookie into 2 x Premiums? However you go into finals without Franklin (?). Will Buddy take a couple of games to get back to best?

Franklin looks like he has an easy run for finals, so I would be keeping him at all costs.
Saying that, I don’t have him yet, but hopefully a couple games after his 70 will make him a tasty entree for finals time.

If you haven’t got Carrots, you really should get him, but I love how Hanley’s been playing lately. My only concern is that his big numbers have came from weak opposition and I reckon, sooner or later, a tag will go to him because he is really damaging off half-back.

I’d go with Carrots, but if yu believe Hanley will similar to Carrazzo every week, then it’ll be worth the punt!

Hanley’s improved output relies on Drummond and Adcock being fit so he can play that role. If you trade in Hanley, you are trading in both Adcock and Drummonds injury concerns. Then again, some people like to live life on the edge.

wellinghams hit wasn’t “gutless” was going for the ball and couldnt stop mid-air. Whats gutless is kade simpsons playing style hanging outside packs for judd to give him the ball (just like the other soft carlton players).

How about hampson trying to break swans back with his knee just to end up injuring himself what a tool hahahhahahaha

I’m aware my midfield isn’t that great, but at the moment I would only be able to one trade bring in Rockliff/Redden types for Montagna and Priddis, and I’m not sure that 10 point increase in average is worth a trade and cash. Fairly happy with my cover.

However, I want to bring Goodes back in, but I’m unsure how. I was hoping he wouldn’t score quite as high this week and then swap him for Adams, but unfortunately I’m just short. Huge fan of Goodes, and it would mean Martin as a backup for Mids and Fwds (assuming Zorko goes F7). 6 trades left so I may be able to justify downtrading somewhere to make the cash, but I can’t see many suitable targets.

On the flip side, one of my midfield low end premos could do with some upgrading, but I can’t really justify getting Goodes and this as I think it’ll leave me too low on trades going into finals.

Great article as always, but I think you overestimate the number of people who liked the Bombers clash strip! I’m not even a Bombers fan but it was awful!

Anyways, I am truly torn about what trades to do this week. Going for league wins, am currently top four in the leagues I care about (though in one of them teams 2-8 have the same wins which is crazy), in my main one I have a soft opponent this week, but a tough run home from there.

Tricky. Your backline cover isn’t great. In my eyes, a sideways trade from Waters to Scotland doesn’t really address immediate donut possibility in the backline and means you’ve traded out Waters which may be a decision that comes back to haunt you. Waters may be a 0 for now, but he’s a proven premo that you know will be in the team as soon as he’s fit. Spurr on the other hand…

Then again… missing the Goodes train is a pain. Still, I think Option one.

In summary:

Option one moves deadweight in Spurr off the team. Deadweight kept in Waters is a proven premo that will come straight back into the team when fit. Introduces an unknown in Murdoch as cover (I know nothing about him personally) and ejects either a forward who will make the team every week or a first year rookie that may miss games but is a very handy DPP cover. Most likely strengthens backline in the long run, but may be a sacrifice of forward cover (and mid, if Smith goes).

Option two moves current deadweight in Waters off the team. Deadweight kept is Spurr who is a first year player not getting any games. Is fit, still not making the team, and probably not a great scorer. Brings in Goodes who gives plenty of flexibility and is a champion. Ejects a mid cover that is… inconsistent in terms of games at best. Strengthens your forward line and gives you an option for good Midfield cover if one of your premos is out for a week.

So yeah, depends which area of the team you feel needs the most improvement. If Goodes comes in and slots into the forward line, that’ll mean dropping Zorko or Pearce to the bench. Zorko is in red hot form, and I’m unsure you want a $300k+ player on the bench while having potential donuts in the backline.

I tend to agree with you though. Missing the Goodes train makes me feel slightly ill, but Spurr missing probably cost me a game in the MBR’s and has potential to do so again in the run home. I can cop a zero this week however, I will still more than likely get across the line. If Darley gets selected this week I’m tempted to get Goodes this week, wait another week and reassess. Only down one down back, get Goddard back next week. I can always trade one of those forward players to a cheapie like McIntyre next week to free up the cash for the run home. It all really boils down to selections really. Tbetta tweeted that Spurr is in the selection frame. Here’s hoping!

To be honest while I didnt exactly love the Dons strip which made them look overweight, I must say NOT once did I get confused with who was who, which is a massive issue when those two teams meet… so overall it was a success.