+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to recurve towards the NE or ENE in the direction of Kyushu in the next 12 hours. The "eye" shall make landfall over SW Kyushu tomo-rrow noon time around 1 PM Japan Time, passing very close to Kagoshima, Japan. The 1 to 2-day medium-range forecast (Jul 14 to 15) shows the system traversing the beachfront-coastal areas of Shikoku and Honshu tomorrow evening until the whole day of Sunday (Jul 15). MAN-YI is forecast to pass very close to the south of Metropolitan Tokyo as a downgraded tropical storm by Sunday afternoon (approx 4 or 5 PM Japan Time, Jul 15). MAN-YI is likely to become an Extratropical Cyclone upon exiting Eastern Honshu or over the North Pacific Ocean late Sunday night or Monday morning.

+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large and continues to cover most of the Northernmost Phili-ppine Sea and the East China Sea and is now spreading across Kyushu and Shikoku. The inner bands is expected to arrive over Western Kyushu before tonight or early tomorrow morning. Typhoon-force winds w/ moderate to heavy rains is forecast tomorrow morning (Sat Jul 14) over the main Japanese islands of Kyushu and Shikoku as the core (eye + eyewall) of MAN-YI approaches. Coas-tal Storm Surge flooding of more than 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-rous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of MAN-YI's projected path. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous areas of the affected areas. Extra-precautions must be implemented NOW as the dangerous typhoon passes by.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon affecting most of the Philippines tonight until tomorrow or Sun (Jul 14-15) as Super Typhoon MAN-YI continues to enhance it. Cloudy skies with possible intermittent pa-ssing rains or thunderstorms can be expected across the country w/ SW'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming more frequent along the Western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Metro Manila, Palawan, Boracay, Wes-tern Panay, Bataan, Zambales, Batangas, Pangasinan, La Union, Mindoro and Ilocos Provinces. Mudslides and floo-ding is likely along river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates on the next advisory.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.

Important Note:Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!_______________________________________________________________________

BEGINNING TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...(more)>> MAN-YI{pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori- ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.__________________________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff: