DEMOCRAT HOCHUL WINS NY 26 SPECIAL ELECTION

You can click
here for final vote (later tonight). With 87% of the
precincts reporting, Democrat Kathy Hochul now leads by 5000+
votes. She will win the race by 5-6 percentage
points. She will not break 50%. She will be
vulnerable in 2012. Senator McCain carried the district
comfortably in 2008. Good night.

Update #11, 10:30pm:

Analysis:

1. The GOP campaign to crater "Crazy Jack" Dean's Tea Party
candidacy was successful. He had been pulling between 15% and 20%
of the vote in pre-election polls. He got 8% of the vote
(give or take) tonight. So that worked.

2. We don't have exit polling so we don't have the electorate's
mind map. But two things stand out: Hochul ran very well in
Erie County and Corwin only broke 50% in Wyoming County.
That's partially due (obviously) to "Crazy Jack" Dean. But
there was a sense (fair or not) that Corwin didn't really connect
with the District's voters. "Too richie rich" was something
we heard more than once.

3. This election would never have happened without the Medicare
issue (which is to say: House passage of Rep. Paul Ryan's budget
plan which called for the "overhaul" of Medicare). A lot of
people, when they heard "overhaul," thought "privatization."
Hochul made this her issue -- her only issue. It
enabled her win tonight.

4. The adults in the Republican Party have already begun thinking
through how the GOP gets out from under the issue of
"overhauling" Medicare. The quickest way would be to strike
a grand (or large) bargain with President Obama that requires
both sides to sign off on Medicare reform. But after
tonight, the Democrats won't do a deal that takes the Medicare
issue off the table. Tonight, Democrats saw electoral
salvation. They're not about to barter it away.

Update #10, 10:06pm:

Hochul wins. Corwin's need/get impossible.

Update #9, 10:04pm:

AP just called for Democrat Hochul. We don't
disagree. But we'll wait for another batch of vote just to
be sure.

Update #8, 10:02pm:

Two-thirds of the precincts are reporting. Democrat
Hochul leads by 4000 votes. She's not free and clear
yet. But Republican Corwin is coming into harder
math.

Update #7, 9:54pm:

We're not ready to make a call yet but the signs are pointing to
Democrat Hochul. We need Orleans and Genesee vote (none has
yet reported).

Race tightening a bit. 55% of the precincts
reporting. Same spread (Democrat Hochul up by 3000 votes,
give or take), but margin shrinking slightly (48%-43%). GOP
campaign to collapse Jack Dean (the faux Tea Party candidate)
worked. He's getting 8% of the total vote.

Update #5, 9:40pm:

Almost 45% of the precincts reporting and Democrat Hochul is
running strong. Now leads by 3000 votes, give or
take. She is running ahead of Gillibrand on a two-party
basis. Gillibrand won the district in 2010 US Senate election.

Update #4, 9:35pm:

Democrat Hochul running well in Erie County. Opening up a
solid lead there. She now leads by 6 percentage points, or
roughly 1600 votes. The direct link to the vote is
here.

Update #3, 9:29pm:

Early Vote is close. Democrat Hochul has slight lead
(roughly 370 votes ahead). No Genesee vote reporting. All
signs point to close election.

Update #2, 9:05 p.m.:

Polls are now closed for the special election in New York's 26th
congressional district.

National Journal's Hotline has a
turnout update: Monroe County, a cluster of
Republican-leaning Rochester suburbs, estimated 23% turnout at 8
p.m. The county was a crucial one for Republican candidate Jane
Corwin, so its a positive sign for her that turnout was high.

Update #1 5:37 p.m.:

Reports from various sources indicate a fairly strong turnout as
of mid-afternoon. Here's
a NYT report.

Of course, reports from the field always indicate a fairly strong
turnout as of mid-afternoon. Sometimes it's true. And
sometimes it's not. The general rule on turnout is: wait
until most of the vote is counted before making any definitive
statements.

Here's
a link to where we think things stand heading into tonight's
vote. We'll be back at around 9pm and will be posting until the
vote is fully tallied.