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MSP HIGHLIGHTS DEMOGRAPHIC RISK TO PUBLIC SERVICES

THE MISSING HALF-MILLION: SCOTLAND’S POPULATION GROWTH TO LAG BEHIND NEIGHBOURS

MSP for the Angus South Constituency, Graeme Dey, has reiterated the case for Scotland assuming key immigration powers in light of new analysis by the SNP, which suggests a potential demographic crisis in the coming decades.

The alarming figures estimate that Scotland’s population would be 500,000 higher by 2040 if population growth was matching that of other small northern European nations. The analysis highlights fears that Scotland could struggle to fund public services as our population ages.

The SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission found that if Scotland had matched the population growth of the other small European countries since 1980, there would be 6.1 million people living in Scotland today – 650,000 more than the current population.

Now the new analysis has found that Scotland’s population would increase by hundreds of thousands of people over the next twenty years if we matched the projected growth of our closest neighbours.

Scotland’s population is expected to grow by just 4.4% by 2040 – significantly lower than projected growth rates in Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden or Iceland. If Scottish growth was to match average projections for the Nordic countries and Ireland, our population would be over 500,000 higher in 2040 than on current projections.

Holyrood’s Finance Committee warned last year that “demographic divergence” between Scotland and the rest of the UK could lead to a drag on GDP growth in Scotland, which would impact our ability to fund public services.

Commenting, Mr Dey said:

“Population projections make it very clear that Scotland urgently needs a different approach to immigration, in line with our distinct demographic challenges.

“The reality in Scotland is that, without sufficient immigration, our aging population is likely to run into real difficulty in funding vital public services including the NHS.

“Tory plans for an even-more-hostile environment post-Brexit is exactly the opposite of what Scotland needs, though there are bigger questions around our lagging population growth. The contrast with Ireland is particularly stark, with the Irish population set to catch up with Scotland’s in just over two decades despite a long legacy of emigration.

“It should be obvious that having the full range of powers to take decisions in our own interests will better serve Scotland in the coming decades – powers that independence will deliver.”