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2019年09月15日 17:36:22来源：爱爱问

The costs imposed by the financial crises that hit western economies in 2007 have been enormous. UK gross domestic product is nearly a fifth smaller than if long-term pre-crisis growth trends had continued. The costs also include huge rises in public debt. In the UK the increase, as a direct and indirect result of the crisis, will be close to 50 per cent of GDP.2007年重创西方经济的金融危机造成的代价是巨大的。目前英国国内生产总值(GDP)相比危机前的长期增长趋势线少了近五分之一。代价还包括公共债务的大幅攀升。在英国，危机直接和间接造成的公共债务增加相当于GDP的近一半。This is the fourth most costly fiscal event of the past 225 years, after the wars with post-revolutionary France and the first and second world wars. Mismanaged finance imposes fiscal costs that are not far short of world wars.这是过去225年来代价第四高昂的财政事件，仅次于法国大革命后的英法战争、一战和二战。金融管理不善造成的财政代价，并不比世界大战带来的损失少很多。This is the background against which to judge predictable complaints that the post-crisis regulatory regime is too onerous and will prevent banks supporting the economy as well as they did when creating the crisis. In the UK particularly strong complaints are directed at the plan to ringfence retail banking from other activities. They often come from people connected to banking. But they would complain, wouldn’t they?这就是评判一些可预见的抱怨的背景，这些抱怨称，后危机时代的监管制度负担过重，将阻止像危机之前那样出色地持经济。在英国，抱怨尤其强烈的是针对将零售业“圈护”(ringfence)起来、与其他活动隔离的计划。这些抱怨往往来自与业相关的人士。但这些人当然会抱怨，难道不是吗？Ringfencing retail banking was one of the proposals of the Independent Commission on Banking, established by the UK government in 2010 (I was a member). The commission’s terms of reference required it to make UK banks safer without undermining global competitiveness. The ICB’s package of proposals also included greater “loss absorbency” — more funding by equity and debt that is ily convertible into equity.对零售实施圈护是业独立委员会（Independent Commission on Banking，简称：ICB）提出的建议之一，该委员会由英国政府在2010年建立（我是其中的成员）。ICB的权限要求它在不影响英国全球竞争力的情况下使它们更安全。ICB的一揽子提案还包括更强的“亏损吸收能力”——更多股权筹资以及更多随时可转换为股权的债务。Martin Taylor, former Barclays chief executive, member of the ICB and now Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member, has powerfully elucidated the logic behind ringfencing. It had, he notes, three chief goals.巴克莱(Barclays)前首席执行官、ICB前成员、现在是英国央行(Bank of England)金融政策委员会成员的马丁#8226;泰勒(Martin Taylor)，有力地阐明了实施圈护背后的逻辑。他指出，这样做有三个主要目标。First, it was designed to make resolution of a failing bank easier by allowing the authorities to pluck out the most critical parts of the business. Second, “As long as governments stood behind a bank’s domestic business#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;and as long as that domestic business was mixed in with the investment bank#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;then effectively the taxpayer had no choice but to stand behind the investment bank too.” The ringfence was designed to subvert this “irresponsible business model”.首先，它旨在通过允许当局挑出业务中最关键的部分，使破产的清盘更加容易。第二，“只要政府持一家的国内业务……只要该行的国内业务与投行业务混合在一起……那么纳税人实际上就别无选择，只能也持投行那一块。”圈护旨在颠覆这种“不负责任的业务模式”。Finally, removing the implicit subsidy would make banking as a whole safer. Given the consequences of pre-crisis risk-taking, that had to be desirable.最后，取消隐性补贴将使业整体更加安全。考虑到危机前冒险行为产生的后果，这一点必定是可取的。The ICB did not recommend full separation between retail and investment banking because it saw the advantages of diversified risks. But it was also aware that balance sheets of UK banks were five times GDP, far higher than in comparable countries. The UK had to limit its exposure. Critics make a number of objections. One is that there is no reason to suppose investment banking is riskier than retail banking. That is true. The ICB did not think otherwise. But retail banking is surely more indispensable.ICB并未建议将零售业和投行业完全分离，因为它看到了风险分散化的优势。但它也意识到，英国各的资产负债表总规模达到国内生产总值(GDP)的5倍，远高于其他可比国家。英国作为一个国家必须限制自己的敞口。批评者提出许多反对意见。其中之一是，没有理由假设投行业比零售业务风险更高。这话没错。ICB也这样认为。但零售业无疑是更加不可或缺的。Another gripe is that the ringfence makes British banks uncompetitive in global banking. But if other governments wish to subsidise investment banking, that is their choice; it is not an argument for the UK to do so, too.也有人抱怨称，圈护政策使英国的在全球业失去竞争力。但是，如果其他国家的政府希望补贴投行，那是他们的选择；这不是英国也要这样做的理由。Others say the ring#173;fence will force UK banks abroad. Reference is made to announcements that HS is reconsidering its UK domicile. HS might indeed wish to escape the costly (and hard to justify) levy on bank balance sheets introduced in 2011. But it cannot escape the ringfence by leaving since its UK retail bank must remain subject to UK law. Thus, the ringfence cannot be a justification for doing so.还有人说，圈护要求将迫使英国的迁往海外。他们提到汇丰(HS)宣布重新考虑总部选址。汇丰可能的确希望逃避2011年出台的针对资产负债表的高额（且很难明合理）征费。但它无法通过搬迁总部来逃避圈护，因为英国的零售仍必须遵守英国法律。因此，圈护不能成为这样做的理由。A more powerful argument is that the loss absorbency of banks is now such that the additional safety provided by ringfencing is redundant. One response is that the internationally agreed levels of loss absorbency is in line with the proposals of the ICB. The other is that banks remain highly leveraged. Last year the ratio of total assets to equity of UK banks was between 20 and 30 to one. It would take modest losses to wipe out these banks’ equity.更有力的论据是，如今的亏损吸收能力已经相当大，圈护所提供的额外安全度是冗余的。对此的回应之一是，国际间同意的亏损吸收能力水平与ICB的建议相符。另一个回应是，英国的仍保持着高杠杆率。去年，英国各总资产与股本的比率介于20至30比1之间。不需要发生太大的亏损，就会抹掉这些的股本。A further objection is that we are now able to resolve troubled banks easily by converting loss-absorbing debt into equity or even winding them up. Improvements have indeed been made. But the idea that these processes would work smoothly if a crisis again engulfed the system is unproven, if not optimistic. Ringfencing would at least give any future government more options.还有一个反对意见是，我们现在能够通过将吸收亏损的债务转化成股权，或者甚至对其清盘，很容易地清算陷入困境的。确实取得了一些进步。但是，那种认为如果危机再次席卷这一体系，这些过程将顺利运转的想法并未被实，如果还算不上过于乐观的话。圈护至少将给未来的政府更多选项。If anything is to be reconsidered it is not ringfencing but the UK’s bank levy, which is simply a heavy tax. I would have no objection to making the boundary of the ringfence more flexible for retail banks in return for higher equity capital. More broadly, if the capital of banks were greatly increased, the case for ringfencing would weaken. But that is not where we now are. So ignore the whingeing.如果有任何事需要被重新考虑的话，那不是圈护政策，而是英国的征费，它就是一项沉重的税种。我不反对让零售的圈护范围变得更加灵活，以换取更高的股权资本。更广义上说，如果的资本大大增加，圈护的理由将被削弱。但这不是我们现在面临的问题。所以，别在意这些抱怨。 /201507/383685。

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Dutch cyclist Maarten de Jonge is one very lucky man, having cheated death twice in the past four months.荷兰自行车手马尔腾·德·容格非常幸运，在过去的4个月中他两次与死神擦肩而过。De Jonge was scheduled to fly aboard Flight MH370, which vanished without a trace in March, and he also had a ticket for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was downed by a missile this week over the Ukraine - but he changed his travel arrangements at the last minute in both cases.马尔腾·德·容格先后计划乘坐马航三月失联航班MH370和马航本周在乌克兰被击落的航班MH17，但他两次均在最后一刻改变了行程安排。On Friday, the 29-year-old professional athlete issued a statement on his official site confirming that he was supposed to take the doomed MH17 flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur Thursday, but he pushed back his departure by several days.周五，这位29岁的职业运动员在自己的官方网站发表了一则声明，实自己原本计划搭乘周四从阿姆斯特丹飞往吉隆坡的坠毁航班MH17，但后来他决定将自己的出发日期延后几天。De Jonge told the Netherlands station RTV Oost that despite his second brush with death, he plans to take another Malaysia Airlines plane this week and has no concerns for his safety.德·容格告诉荷兰电视台RTV Oost，尽管两次与死神擦肩而过，他本周还是计划搭乘另一班马航飞机，而且对自己的安全问题没有顾虑。‘I have been lucky twice, that#39;s the third time as well,’ de Jonge reportedly said.据报道，德·容格表示，“我两次都非常幸运，第三次也会很幸运的。”De Jonge, who is part of the Terengganu Cycling Team based in Malaysia, had booked a seat on Flight MH17, planning to return to Kuala Lumpur after taking part in national championships in his native Holland earlier this month, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.据悉尼先驱晨报报道，德·容格是马来西亚登嘉楼州自行车队选手，上月他回国参加荷兰全国锦标赛，后计划乘坐MH17航班飞回吉隆坡。But the athlete ultimately decided to take another, cheaper flight with a layover in Frankfurt, Germany, on Sunday.但他最后决定改签周日更为便宜的中转联程航班，在德国法兰克福转机。‘I could have taken that one just as easily,’ de Jonge said in the RTV Oost interview. ‘It#39;s inconceivable. I am very sorry for the passengers and their families, yet I am very pleased I#39;m unharmed.’德·容格在接受RTV Oost采访时说，“我本来无疑会搭乘那班飞机。这真是让人难以置信。我为机上的乘客和他们的家人感到遗憾，但我也很高兴我还好好活着。”In his written statement Friday, de Jonge downplayed his two very close calls, saying that his story is meaningless compared to those of the victims and their families.德·容格在周五发表的书面声明中轻描淡写地叙述了自己两次侥幸脱险的经历，表示相比于遇难者和他们家人的遭遇，自己的经历毫无意义。He declined to comment further out of respect for the 298 passengers and crew of Flight MH17, at least 189 of them Dutch citizens, who perished in the tragedy.出于对遇难者的尊重，他拒绝就此事再做。坠毁航班MH17上共有298名乘客和机组人员遇难，其中189名为荷兰公民。 /201407/314180。

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The renminbi has come a long way in the past two decades. As recently as 1994, foreign visitors to China were still consigned to using special “foreign exchange certificates” rather than local currency. Only select stores and restaurants were permitted to accept them.过去二十年，人民币取得了长足进展。就在1994年，外国游客来华还不得不使用特殊的“外汇券”，而非本地货币。只有指定的商店和餐厅才被允许接收外汇券。Progress has been even swifter since July 2005, when the Chinese government announced it was removing the currency’s tight peg to the US dollar.自2005年7月以来，人民币的发展进程进一步加快。当时中国政府宣布，解除人民币与美元的挂钩机制。Since then the renminbi has appreciated more than 30 per cent against the dollar and the central bank has scaled back its intervention in the foreign exchange market. Rmb trade settlement is rising, with 20 per cent of China’s merchandise trade settled in its own currency in 2014.从那之后，人民币对美元升值超过30%，中国央行也减少了对外汇市场的干预。人民币贸易结算逐渐增加，2014年中国20%的商品贸易以人民币结算。Yet the recent boom-bust cycle in the Chinese stock market has renewed doubts among foreign investors about the wisdom of allocating large sections of their portfolios to renminbi assets.不过，中国股市最近的牛熊转换循环使外国投资者再次怀疑，将投资组合中的一大部分配置为人民币资产是否明智。While most investors can accept market volatility, the government’s heavy-handed response, which has included a ban on sales of equities by big stockholders and trading suspensions affecting thousands of listed companies, has reminded investors that investing in China comes with political as well as financial risks. The prospect of being trapped in an unwanted investment due to ad hoc administrative intervention is not an enticing one.尽管多数投资者可以接受市场波动，但中国政府的粗暴反应——包括禁止大股东抛售股票，以及让上千家上市公司停牌——提醒了投资者，在中国投资既有金融风险，又有政治风险。由于临时的行政干预而让自己陷入不如意的投资之中，这种前景并不令人向往。Yet the long-term trend is still towards increased foreign acceptance of the renminbi for both trade and investment.不过，长期趋势仍然是，外国对人民币用于贸易和投资的接受度逐步提升。Trade settlement has also facilitated the accumulation of renminbi outside China. Offshore renminbi centres, led by Hong Kong, have sprung up in financial areas such as Singapore, London and Frankfurt, allowing governments and a broad range of companies to issue renminbi bonds.贸易结算还促进了人民币在中国境外的积累。以香港为首的离岸人民币中心在新加坡、伦敦及法兰克福等金融区逐渐兴起，使得多国政府及许多公司可以发行人民币债券。Capital controls restricting portfolio investment into and out of China have also been on a loosening trend, notably through the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November. Even as the International Monetary Fund considers whether to endorse the renminbi as an official reserve currency, more than 60 central banks have aly invested in renminbi assets, according to Standard Chartered.限制组合投资进出中国的资本管制也已经进入逐渐放松的趋势，特别是借助去年11月“沪港通”的开通。渣打(Standard Chartered)表示，虽然国际货币基金组织(IMF)还在考虑是否将人民币纳入官方储备货币，但目前已经有超过60家央行投资了人民币资产。In July, the central bank widened access to its vast domestic bond market for foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank. These institutions no longer require licences to invest in Chinese interbank bonds, as well as money market instruments such as repurchase agreements. Total foreign participation will still, however, be subject to a a.7月，中国央行向外国央行、主权财富基金和世界(World Bank)等多边金融机构，扩大了进入中国国内庞大债券市场的通道。这些机构投资中国间债券、以及回购协议等货币市场工具时，不再需要特许。然而，外国机构的整体参与仍然受制于配额。Outbound foreign direct investment is now subject to greatly reduced regulation, as China encourages domestic companies to “go out”. Foreign mergers, acquisitions and greenfield investments by Chinese companies below a certain threshold, typically 0m, no longer require approval from the foreign exchange regulator.随着中国鼓励国内企业“走出去”，如今中国国内企业对外直接投资面临的监管大大减少。中国企业在进行低于某一门槛——通常为1亿美元——的对外并购、收购以及绿地投资时，不再需要获得外汇监管机构的批准。For inbound FDI, many sectors of the Chinese economy remain restricted to foreigners, or off limits entirely, but the approval process is easier than before for sectors where investment is allowed.至于流入中国的外国直接投资，中国经济中很多领域对外资仍然存在限制、或者完全禁入，但是在允许外国投资的领域，审批流程已经比之前简化许多。In addition, China is using the Shanghai free-trade zone to experiment with a “negative list” approach to foreign investment. Rather than stipulating specific areas as “encouraged”, “restricted”, or “forbidden” for foreigners, the negative list will specify those that are closed. Any sectors not on the list are assumed to be unrestricted.此外，中国正利用上海自贸区来试验对外资列出“负面清单”的做法。负面清单将明确列出对外资封闭的领域，而不是规定“鼓励”、“限制”或“禁止”外资进入的特定领域。任何未出现在负面清单中的领域都被认为是不受限制的。Despite such progress, by many measures the Rmb remains a middling player in the global currency markets. In terms of global foreign-exchange turnover, it still trails the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar.尽管取得了这些进展，但是人民币在很多方面仍然是全球货币市场上的一个中流选手。从全球外汇交易额看，人民币仍然落后于墨西哥比索和加拿大元。Interest and exchange rates, though freer than before, remain subject to government control. China has pledged to complete both interest-rate liberalisation and “basic” capital account convertibility by the end of 2015. But it is clear that Beijing’s definition of these terms still leaves plenty of room for government interference in the market.人民币利率和汇率虽然比以往更加自由化，但仍然受到政府控制。中国承诺在2015年底前实现利率自由化以及资本项目“基本”可兑换。但是，很明显北京方面对这些术语的定义，仍然给政府干预市场留有大量空间。The market also lacks derivatives that would allow investors to hedge risk or make bearish bets. The interest-rate swaps market is relatively liquid, but more sophisticated tools such as cross-currency swaps remain thinly traded. Equity derivatives are still in their infancy, with futures and options only available on broad indexes, not individual shares.中国市场还缺乏让投资者可以对冲风险或做空的衍生品。利率掉期市场相对有流动性，但是诸如货币掉期等更加复杂的衍生品的交易量仍然很低。股票衍生品仍然处于萌芽阶段，期货和期权仅针对整体指数，而非个股。Capital controls still severely restrict investor access to China’s onshore bond market. The increased access that central banks now enjoy does not extend to private-sector asset managers, who can only obtain access to the onshore market through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor Programme (QFII) or its renminbi-denominated cousin, RQFII. Even once a QFII license is obtained, each asset manager is subject to a separate a from the foreign exchange regulator. And for individuals, the domestic bond market remains completely off limits.资本管制仍然严格限制着投资者进入中国境内债券市场的通道。外国央行如今享受的日益开放的投资通道，并未延伸至私人部门资产管理公司，后者只能通过合格境外机构投资者(QFII)或者与之类似的人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)计划，获得进入中国境内市场的通道。即便一朝获得QFII资格，每家资产管理公司仍受制于外汇监管机构设置的单独的配额。至于个人投资者，中国境内债券市场仍然完全属于禁区。For the bond market, access is easier. Foreign investors buying into the Chinese stock market using the stock connect do not need a licence, but many stocks remain off limits and as limit daily flows and overall investments. Moreover, the Chinese stock market’s recent bull run, followed by its sudden downward correction, has made many foreign investors wary of participating, even where regulations allow it.对于股票市场来说，进入相对容易。利用沪港通投资于中国股市的外国投资者不需要许可，但是很多股票仍然禁止他们买卖，而且配额限制着每日资金流以及整体投资。另外，中国股市最近的暴涨以及随后的骤跌，令很多外国投资者对入市十分谨慎，即便监管允许进入。Global index provider MSCI recently declined to add Chinese onshore stocks, known as A shares, to its benchmark emerging market indexes. Though they cited technical concerns about the ownership status of shares bought through the stock connect programme, many observers privately believe that MSCI’s decision was also motivated by investor concerns about the stock market’s reputation as a casino.全球主要指数提供商MSCI明晟，最近决定暂不将中国内地股市（即A股）纳入其新兴市场基准指数。尽管他们声称是因为技术上的担忧，即通过沪港通购买的股票的所有权状态，但很多观察人士私下认为，投资者对A股如的担忧也促成了MSCI的决定。The addition of A shares to the indices would have triggered billions in fund inflows via funds that passively track them. Even before the share crash that began in late June, such a prospect made many of MSCI’s fund manager clients nervous.将A股纳入MSCI指数，将通过被动追踪这些指数的基金引发数十亿美元的资金流入。即使是在始于6月中旬的A股暴跌前，这种前景也让很多MSCI的基金管理公司客户感到紧张。As China proceeds cautiously but inexorably with financial reform, the importance of the renminbi is bound to increase. But whether the currency will ever take on an importance commensurate with China’s status as the world’s largest economy (at purchasing power parity) is still an open question.随着中国谨慎而又坚定地推进金融改革，人民币的重要性势必会增加。但是，人民币是否会取得与中国作为世界最大经济体（按购买力平价计算）的地位相称的重要性，仍然是一个尚无定论的问题。 /201508/392148。