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3.
M. Khairul Bahri
Background
The West Nusa Tenggara is one of provinces in Indonesia that famous with its wetland. Because of
unsatisfied management, this province facing of unbalanced supply-demand, even its rice production greater
than its rice demand. The local government sometimes can’t predict paddy production perfectly because of
its production fluctuation and delay in import.
In this paper, I will explain how important of suitable rice stock to cover rice production. The first
simulation visualize business as usual situation and in the second we add rice stock to see what suitable rice
stock’s impact on rice supply-deman and its price.
The first model can anticipate fluctuation of rice production that supply can cover demand and further impact
is price variation exist. The second model visualize that suitable rice stock can make a balanced supply-
demand and guarantee target of rice price.
In this model. We assume that export and import are continous process because rice is not durable good.
The First Model
available_paddy_in_start_time delay_time_import
early_land_farming switch_import
land_productivity
available_land fract_conversion import_actual
land_farming
predicted_rice_production
delay_information
desired_import
new_farming_growthland_farming_conversion
fract_growth
average_paddy_production
harvest_land import_rice_corrected_2
sdva import_rice_corrected_1
normal_curve
actual_paddy_production
predicted_paddy_production
past_time rice_demand
paddy_rice_conversion
paddy_productivity_per_ha
rice_production_actual
export_actual rice_supply export_actual
export_rice_delaytime
koreksi_export_1
import_actual predicted_rice_production switch_export
rice_demand
desired_rice_export
fertility
rice_consumption_per_capita predicted_rice_production
population rice_export_corrected_3
birth_rate death_rate surplus_rice_actual
human_lifetime rice_demand
land_productivity supply_demand_ratio
fract_paddy_productivity price_of_rice_actual
rice_supply
supply_demand_ratio
paddy_productivity_per_ha
targeted_of_price_rice
paddy_produktivity_Dot

7.
M. Khairul Bahri
The above-right curve reveals we need the green land (special non converting farming land) of 300,000 ha to
sustain supply-demand by local rice production (fifty years simulation).
If there is no improvements in production technology policy and the green land is very important to guarantee
local supply and demand.