Abstract

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. Here, for both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possiblemore » future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Lastly, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.« less

@article{osti_1407300,
title = {Cluster Analysis of Downscaled and Explicitly Simulated North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks},
author = {Daloz, Anne S. and Camargo, S. J. and Kossin, J. P. and Emanuel, K. and Horn, M. and Jonas, J. A. and Kim, D. and LaRow, T. and Lim, Y. -K. and Patricola, C. M. and Roberts, M. and Scoccimarro, E. and Shaevitz, D. and Vidale, P. L. and Wang, H. and Wehner, M. and Zhao, M.},
abstractNote = {A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. Here, for both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Lastly, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00646.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 4,
volume = 28,
place = {United States},
year = 2015,
month = 2
}

Global climate models (GCMs) are routinely relied upon to study the possible impacts of climate change on a wide range of meteorological phenomena, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Previous studies addressed whether GCMs are capable of reproducing observed TC frequency and intensity distributions. This research builds upon earlier studies by examining how well GCMs capture the physically relevant relationship between TC intensity and SST. Specifically, the influence of model resolution on the ability of a GCM to reproduce the sensitivity of simulated TC intensity to SST is examined for the MRI-AGCM (20 km), the GFDL-HiRAM (50 km), the FSU-COAPS (0.94°) model,more » and two versions of the CAM5 (1° and 0.25°). Results indicate that while a 1°C increase in SST corresponds to a 5.5–7.0 m s -1 increase in observed maximum intensity, the same 1°C increase in SST is not associated with a statistically significant increase in simulated TC maximum intensity for any of the models examined. However, it also is shown that the GCMs all capably reproduce the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST. The models generate the thermodynamic environment suitable for the development of strong TCs over the correct portions of the Nort h Atlantic basin, but strong simulated TCs do not develop over these areas, even for models that permit Category 5 TCs. This result supports the notion that direct simulation of TC eyewall convection is necessary to accurately represent TC intensity and intensification processes in climate models, although additional explanations are also explored.« less

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the Northmore » American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.« less

The Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation 3 (CITE 3) NO-NO2 database has provided a unique opportunity to examine important aspects of tropospheric photochemistry as related to the rapid cycling between NO and NO2. Our results suggest that when quantitative testing of this photochemical system is based on airborne field data, extra precautions may need to be taken in the analysis. This was particularly true in the CITE 3 data analysis where different regional environments produced quite different results when evaluating the photochemical test ratio (NO2)(sub expt)/(NO2)(sub calc), designated here as R(sub E)/R(sub C). The quantity (NO2)(sub Calc) was evaluated usingmore » the following photostationary state expression: (NO2)(sub Calc) = k(sub 1)(O3) + k(sub 4)(HO2) + k(sub 5)(CH3O2) + k(sub 6)(RO2)(NO)(sub Expt)/J(sub 2). The four most prominent regional environmental data sets identified in this analysis were those labeled here as free-tropospheric northern hemisphere (FTNH), free-tropospheric tropical northern hemisphere (FTTNH), free-tropospheric southern hemisphere (FTSH), and tropical-marine boundary layer (plume) (TMBL(P)). The respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and median values for these four data subsets were 1.74, 1.69; 3.00, 2.79; 1.01, 0.97; and 0.99, 0.94. Of the four data subsets listed, the two that were statistically the most robust were FTNH and FTSH; for these the respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and standard deviation of the mean values were 1.74 +/- 0.07 and 1.01 +/- 0.04. The FTSH observations were in good agreement with theory, whereas those from the FTNH data set were in significant disagreement.« less