The non-playoff teams line up like this. Remember that we now have a weighted draft order, giving the three worst teams the best shot mathematically at top three draft picks. After the first three teams are chosen, places 4-9 are awarded to the non-playoff teams in order of highest winning percentage. Then picks 10-15 are awarded to playoff teams in order of lowest winning percentage. Stay tuned for details on how the weighted draft order results will be unveiled.

UPDATE, 11/9: Picks below reflect odds of gaining the overall No. 1 pick and Hickory/Applegate are now tied for the lowest odds.

2 Responses

Not 100% certain on this, but I think the percentages you are showing Gary relate to the odds of a non-playoff team getting THE top pick, not one of the top three picks.

The collective probability for any team getting one of the top three picks will be higher. For instance, looking back at the rule adoption, as the top turd team (T3), I will apparently get 45 virtual ping pong balls out of 165 in the hopper when we determine the first overall pick. That yields a 27.27% that Chatfield gets the #1 overall pick. But if I don’t “hit” with the first overall I will get two more shots, and my probability of being selected increases each time as the virtual ping pong balls are removed for the teams already awarded a pick. My numerator-45-will remain constant, but the denominator– all ping pong balls in the pool-will shrink.

To illustrate, if English (or Destin as I think they will become) grabs the #1 overall, Destin’s 36 virtual ping pong balls exit the probability pool. When we determine who gets the second overall pick in the first round, Chatfield will now have a 45/129 chance, or 34.88% probability of getting that second overall pick.

Same then for the third round.

I don’t know enough probability to figure out my total chance of getting at least one of the top three picks, but with three independent chances of at least 27% or higher, I’m guessing (hoping?) that it is at least north of 50%.

I think it goes something like this: to calculate the probaility that I “miss” on all three round despite the most ping pong balls, I multiply the miss probabilities for all three events to get to a combined probability. Worst case scenario then looks like .73 miss X .73 miss X .72 miss (assuming that Hickory and Applegate are selected one and two). That ciphers out to a combined probability of .38 (.73 x .73 x .72)that Chatfield “misses” all three rounds. Subtracting that .38 overall “miss” probability from one, even worst case, I think I have a .62 chance of getting one of the top three picks. And if other teams with more virtual ping pong balls like English or SGP grab the top two picks, my odds on pick three get even better, as the number of ping pong balls in the pool, which is the denominator in the probability equations, becomes much smaller.