Sunday, December 23, 2007

London: Terror suspect Rashid Rauf did not escape from custody last week but was kidnapped by Pakistan’s intelligence agency as part of an “organised disappearance” plot, a media report said on Sunday quoting people close to the man arrested in connection with the plan to bomb US-bound trans-Atlantic airliners last year.

The official description of Rauf’s getaway has been met with disbelief, many wondering how an alleged al-Qaeda operative held in Pakistan’s highest-security detention unit managed to walk away from custody.

The authorities in Pakistan have blamed junior policemen escorting Rauf back to jail after a court hearing in Islamabad where he was fighting moves to extradite him to Britain in connection with a murder case.

Rauf’s lawyer and a close family friend have said they believed he had been taken into custody by Pakistan’s secret security service and they feared for his life. They believed the country’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) did not want him to be extradited to Britain and had abducted him to preempt any court decision to deport him.

Hashmat Habib, Rauf’s lawyer, said his client was being victimised because the Pakistani authorities have been forced to drop all charges against Rauf over the trans-Atlantic terror plot. “In my estimate it’s an organised disappearance. They don’t want to hand him over. He was fixed up and the government is now afraid that he would become an embarrassment if sent to the UK because they hyped up his involvement,” Habib was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times.

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama bin Laden as a friend, believed that Rauf might have been “taken away by the ISI” and feared that his friend might be shot dead while “on the run”.

Rauf had been held with al Qaeda suspects in Pakistan’s highest-security unit in Rawalpindi until his “escape” last weekend. Several questions were raised about the circumstances in which he escaped. Khawaja, who had shared a cell with the terror suspect, said Rauf did not have the wherewithal to plot an escape

Sunday, December 23, 2007

London, December 23: Terror suspect Rashid Rauf did not escape from custody last week but was kidnapped by Pakistan’s intelligence agency as part of an “organised disappearance” plot, a media report said on Sunday quoting people close to the man arrested in connection with the plan to bomb US-bound trans-Atlantic airliners last year.

The official description of Rauf’s getaway has been met with disbelief, many wondering how an alleged al-Qaeda operative held in Pakistan’s highest-security detention unit could manage to walk away from custody.

The authorities in Pakistan have blamed junior policemen escorting Rauf back to jail after a court hearing in Islamabad where he was fighting moves to extradite him to Britain in connection with a murder case.

Rauf’s lawyer and a close family friend have said that they believed he had been taken into custody by Pakistan’s secret security-service and they feared for his life. They believed the country’s powerful Inter-services intelligence (ISI) did not want him to be extradited to Britain and had abducted him to preempt any court decision to deport him.

Hashmat Habib, Raufs lawyer, said his client was being victimised because the Pakistani authorities have been forced to drop all charges against Rauf over the transatlantic terror plot.

“In my estimate its an organised disappearance. They don’t want to hand him over. He was fixed up and the government is now afraid that he would become an embarrassment if sent to the UK because they hyped up his involvement,” Habib was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times on Sunday.

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama Bin Laden as a friend, believed that Rauf might have been “taken away by the ISI” and feared that his friend might be shot dead while “on the run”.

Rauf had been held with al-Qaeda suspects in Pakistan's highest-security unit in Rawalpindi until his "escape" last weekend. Several questions were raised about the circumstances in which he escaped.

Khawaja, who had shared a cell with the terror suspect, said Rauf did not have the wherewithal to plot an escape.

"He was a high-value prisoner wanted by the British. How could he just get a chance to run away like this? It is not possible without the active involvement of the government. Now they have said he ran away. If hes found killed no one will question it because he ran away," Khawaja was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times.

Rauf, a British national of Pakistani-origin, was arrested in the Islamic nation in August last year at the same time as 25 men were held in Britain after police uncovered an alleged plot to blow up 12 airliners flying to the United States from Heathrow and Gatwick.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

LAHORE: Friends of Rashid Rauf, the man wanted in Britain for last year's Al-Qaeda plot to blow up transatlantic airliners, claim that he did not escape from custody last weekend but was kidnapped by a military intelligence agency, The Times said in a report. They fear he may be shot reports.

Rauf was arrested in Pakistan in August last year at the same time as 25 men were held in Britain after police uncovered an alleged plot to blow up 12 airliners flying to the United States from Heathrow and Gatwick.

The arrests led to widespread changes in airport security and a ban on liquids being taken onto planes in hand luggage. Since then Rauf has been held with other Al-Qaeda suspects in Pakistan's highest-security unit in Rawalpindi until his "escape" last weekend.

The Pakistan government has blamed junior policemen escorting Rauf back to jail after a court hearing in Islamabad where he was fighting moves to extradite him to Britain in connection with the murder of an uncle.

The officers had allowed him to stop for lunch at a McDonald's restaurant and later in the journey permitted him to pray at a mosque. His handcuffs were removed to allow him to pray freely. When the guards entered the mosque to check on the prisoner, he had escaped through another door.

Their description of his getaway has been met with disbelief throughout Pakistan, with diplomats and commentators asking how a prisoner described by the country's interior minister as a leading Al-Qaeda operative and held in Pakistan's highest-security detention unit could be allowed to walk away in broad daylight. Rauf's lawyer and a close family friend both said last week that they believed he had not escaped but had been taken into secret security-service custody and they feared for his life.

They said they believed the country's intelligence service did not want him to be extradited to Britain and had in effect kidnapped him to preempt any court decision to deport him. More than 400 opposition activists and Islamic militants have been secretly detained by the security services in this way and Pakistan's Supreme Court has criticised the policy and ordered the government to free a number of detainees.

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama Bin Laden as a friend, said he had shared a cell with Rauf and had become close to him and his family. He said Rauf was a simple man who did not have the wherewithal to plot an escape. He claimed that Rauf might have been "taken away by the ISI" and feared that his friend might be shot dead while "on the run".

Sunday, December 23, 2007

LONDON: Terror suspect Rashid Rauf did not escape from custody last week but was kidnapped by Pakistans intelligence agency as part of an "organised disappearance" plot, a media report said on Sunday quoting people close to the man arrested in connection with the plan to bomb US-bound trans-Atlantic airliners last year.

The official description of Rauf's getaway has been met with disbelief, many wondering how an alleged Al-Qaida operative held in Pakistans highest-security detention unit could manage to walk away from custody.

The authorities in Pakistan have blamed junior policemen escorting Rauf back to jail after a court hearing in Islamabad where he was fighting moves to extradite him to Britain in connection with a murder case.

Raufs lawyer and a close family friend have said that they believed he had been taken into custody by Pakistan's secret security-service and they feared for his life. They believed the country’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) did not want him to be extradited to Britain and had abducted him to pre-empt any court decision to deport him.

Hashmat Habib, Raufs lawyer, said his client was being victimised because the Pakistani authorities have been forced to drop all charges against Rauf over the transatlantic terror plot.

"In my estimate it’s an organised disappearance. They don’t want to hand him over. He was fixed up and the government is now afraid that he would become an embarrassment if sent to the UK because they hyped up his involvement," Habib was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times on Sunday.

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama Bin Laden as a friend, believed that Rauf might have been "taken away by the ISI" and feared that his friend might be shot dead while "on the run".

Sunday, December 23, 2007

London, Dec 23: Terror suspect Rashid Rauf did not escape from custody last week but was kidnapped by Pakistans intelligence agency as part of an "organised disappearance" plot, a media report said on Sunday quoting people close to the man arrested in connection with the plan to bomb US-bound trans-Atlantic airliners last year.

The official description of Rauf's getaway has been met with disbelief, many wondering how an alleged Al-Qaida operative held in Pakistans highest-security detention unit could manage to walk away from custody.

The authorities in Pakistan have blamed junior policemen escorting Rauf back to jail after a court hearing in Islamabad where he was fighting moves to extradite him to Britain in connection with a murder case.

Raufs lawyer and a close family friend have said that they believed he had been taken into custody by Pakistan's secret security-service and they feared for his life. They believed the country’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) did not want him to be extradited to Britain and had abducted him to pre-empt any court decision to deport him.

Hashmat Habib, Raufs lawyer, said his client was being victimised because the Pakistani authorities have been forced to drop all charges against Rauf over the transatlantic terror plot.

"In my estimate it’s an organised disappearance. They don’t want to hand him over. He was fixed up and the government is now afraid that he would become an embarrassment if sent to the UK because they hyped up his involvement," Habib was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times on Sunday.

Khalid Khawaja, a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama Bin Laden as a friend, believed that Rauf might have been "taken away by the ISI" and feared that his friend might be shot dead while "on the run".

Sunday, December 23, 2007

MARDAN, Pakistan, Dec. 22 -- A day after a suicide bomber killed at least 56 people and wounded scores of others at a mosque in a remote village in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, police said they had arrested four students from an Islamic school in a nearby town.

Police detained three Afghans from Helmand province and one Pakistani from Quetta on Friday and transferred them to Pakistani intelligence officials as part of the investigation of the bombing, according to a police official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk publicly about the case.

A Pakistani intelligence official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed earlier assumptions that the still-unidentified bomber targeted former interior minister Aftab Khan Sherpao, an ally of President Pervez Musharraf. Sherpao is also a candidate in Jan. 8 parliamentary elections.

Sherpao survived the blast, but his son sustained injuries and members of his security detail were killed. The former minister was seated in the first row of a mosque located inside his residential compound in Sherpao village; the bomb detonated near the middle of the mosque. The blast occurred as a crowd of more than 1,000 people offered prayers on the Muslim holy day of Eid al-Adha.

Mass funerals took place Friday. Many residents of Sherpao continued to express grief and frustration Saturday.

"I know that Mr. Sherpao has done a lot for the development and betterment of this area," said Bakth Jahan, a 28-year-old shopkeeper. "But I know that he has also brought destruction to the people of this area. We have lost a lot of people, and no one can repair this loss." An April bombing in Charsadda district, which includes Sherpao, killed at least 28 people.

Before stepping down as interior minister last month, Sherpao led military and intelligence operations against pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents. He has been under threat since at least May 2005, when he announced the arrest and transfer to U.S. custody of al-Qaeda operative Abu Faraj al-Libbi.

The government has continued to provide Sherpao with a security detail, even after the end of his five years as interior minister. Investigators are now seeking to determine how the bomber evaded those protections, officials said.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

CASTIGLIONE DI CERVIA, Italy — Panic was spreading this August through this tidy village of 2,000 as one person after another fell ill with weeks of high fever, exhaustion and excruciating bone pain, just as most of Italy was enjoying Ferragosto, its most important summer holiday.

“At one point, I simply couldn’t stand up to get out of the car,” said Antonio Ciano, 62, an elegant retiree in a pashmina scarf and trendy blue glasses. “I fell. I thought, O.K., my time is up. I’m going to die. It was really that dramatic.”

By midmonth, more than 100 people had come down with the same malady. Although the worst symptoms dissipated after a couple of weeks, no doctor could figure out what was wrong.

People blamed pollution in the river. They denounced the government. But most of all they blamed recent immigrants from tropical Africa for bringing the pestilence to their sleepy settlement of pastel stucco homes.

“Why immigrants?” asked Rina Ventura, who owns a shop selling shoes and purses. “I kept thinking of these terrible diseases that you see on TV, like malaria. We were terrified. There was no name and no treatment.”

Oddly, the villagers were both right and wrong. After a month of investigation, Italian public health officials discovered that the people of Castiglione di Cervia were, in fact, suffering from a tropical disease, chikungunya, a relative of dengue fever normally found in the Indian Ocean region. But the immigrants spreading the disease were not humans but insects: tiger mosquitoes, who can thrive in a warming Europe.

Aided by global warming and globalization, Castiglione di Cervia has the dubious distinction of playing host to the first outbreak in modern Europe of a disease that had previously been seen only in the tropics.

“By the time we got back the name and surname of the virus, our outbreak was over,” said Dr. Rafaella Angelini, director of the regional public health department in Ravenna. “When they told us it was chikungunya, it was not a problem for Ravenna any more. But I thought: this is a big problem for Europe.”

The epidemic proved that tropical viruses are now able to spread in new areas, far north of their previous range. The tiger mosquito, which first arrived in Ravenna three years ago, is thriving across southern Europe and even in France and Switzerland.

And if chikungunya can spread to Castiglione — “a place not special in any way,” Dr. Angelini said — there is no reason why it cannot go to other Italian villages. There is no reason why dengue, an even more debilitating tropical disease, cannot as well.

“This is the first case of an epidemic of a tropical disease in a developed, European country,” said Dr. Roberto Bertollini, director of the World Health Organization’s Health and Environment program. “Climate change creates conditions that make it easier for this mosquito to survive and it opens the door to diseases that didn’t exist here previously. This is a real issue. Now, today. It is not something a crazy environmentalist is warning about.”

Was he shocked to discover chikungunya in Italy, his native land? “We knew this would happen sooner or later,” he said. “We just didn’t know where or when.”

It certainly caught this town off guard on Aug. 9, when public health officials in Ravenna received an angry call from Stefano Merlo, who owns the gas station.

“Within 100 meters of my home, there were more than 30 people with fevers over 40 degrees,” or 104 Fahrenheit, said Mr. Merlo, 47. “I wanted to know what was going on. I knew it couldn’t be normal.”

August is not the season for high fevers, Dr. Angelini agreed, and within days of interviewing patients she was intrigued.

“The stories were so similar and so dramatic,” she said. “But we had no clue it was something tropical.”

Hard-working shopkeepers could not get out of bed because their hips hurt so much. Able-bodied men could not lift spoons to their mouths. (Months later, many still have debilitating joint pain.)

From the start, doctors suspected that the disease was spread by insects, rather than people. While almost all homes had one person who was ill, family members seemed not to catch the disease from one another.

They initially focused on sand flies, since the disease clustered on streets by the river.

Canceling their traditional mid-August vacations (in Italy, a true sign of panic), health officials sent off blood samples, called national infectious-disease experts, searched the Internet and set out traps to see what insects were in the neighborhood. The first surprise was that the insect traps contained not sand flies but tiger mosquitoes, and huge numbers of them.

The scientific survey confirmed what residents of Castiglione had come to accept as a horrible nuisance, though not a deadly threat.

“In the last three or four years, you couldn’t live on these streets because the mosquitoes were so bad,” said Rino Ricchi, a road worker who fell ill, standing at the entrance to his neatly tended garden, where mosquito traps have now replaced decorative fountains. “We used to delight in having a garden or a porch to eat dinner. You couldn’t this year, you’d get eaten alive.”

Said Dr. Angelini: “They were treating the mosquitoes like an annoyance. They knew that mosquitoes could spread tropical diseases but they had peace of mind because they knew this didn’t happen in Italy.”

Ravenna immediately set about killing the bugs in the hopes of containing the epidemic. Workers sprayed insecticides and went into each family’s garden, emptying flower pots, fountains and the rainwater collection barrels to remove the mosquitoes’ breeding ground.

By early September, there were no new cases in Castiglione di Cervia. But there were a number of mini-epidemics in the region — in Ravenna, Cesena and Rimini — set off by tiger mosquitoes there. Each was controlled in the same way.

By that point, the doctors had cataloged the patients’ symptoms and tried to match them to mosquito-borne diseases.

“We realized,” Dr. Angelini said, “we were seeing a photocopy of an outbreak on Réunion,” a French island in the Indian Ocean where more than 10,000 people have contracted chikungunya in the last two years. Blood tests confirmed the diagnosis. By summer’s end, home-grown chikungunya had been diagnosed in nearly 300 Italians.

Chikungunya is spread when tiger mosquitoes drink blood from an infected person and, if conditions are right, pass the virus on when they bite again. Tiger mosquitoes first came to southern Italy with shipments of tires from Albania about a decade ago but their habitat has expanded steadily northward as temperatures have risen.

But the doctors were baffled by how chikungunya made its way into mosquitoes in northern Italy since no one in Castiglione di Cervia had been abroad. In the past two years France, especially Paris, has had a number of imported cases of chikungunya, in travelers returning from Réunion. But the disease has never spread in France, because the mosquito cannot thrive there yet.

Eventually investigators discovered a link: one of the first men to fall ill in Castiglione di Cervia had been visited by a feverish relative in early July. That relative, an Italian, had previously traveled to Kerala, India. Chikungunya traveled to Italy in his blood, but climatic conditions are now such that it can spread and find a home here.

Now it is winter in Castiglione di Cervia, near freezing as the sun went down on a recent evening and Christmas lights glowed across the piazza. There are no mosquitoes now.

But dozens of residents still suffer from arthritis, a known complication of chikungunya.

Mr. Ricchi, the road worker, says he still has trouble clenching his fists, and his left ankle has horrible pains. Three people in the town died after getting the virus, Mr. Merlo said, although all of those victims had other illnesses as well.

From the start, townspeople noticed that the very elderly never got the disease. Now it makes sense: “If all you do is walk the 50 yards from your home to the church, there’s not much chance to get bitten,” said Mr. Ciano, the retiree.

But the biggest mystery is whether chikungunya will emerge here next summer. In the tropics, it is a year-round disease, since the mosquitoes breed continually. But the virus can winter over in mosquito eggs, too, and no one knows if there are reservoirs of sleeping eggs in some pool of water in Italy.

With climate change at hand, Dr. Bertollini said, chikungunya will surely be back somewhere in Europe again.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

WASHINGTON — President Bush has approved what officials are describing as the most significant realignment of the Army since World War II, signing off on a plan that will keep more troops than previously envisioned in Europe and add large numbers of soldiers to bases in Colorado, Georgia and Texas, Army officials said Wednesday.

The basing plan is the final step in a detailed program for deciding where a larger Army will live and train in the years ahead, as it grows by 65,000 active-duty soldiers. It significantly changes the military’s footprint from before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and alters a global basing plan adopted with great fanfare by the Pentagon in 2004.

The revised plan freezes previous orders for rapidly reducing Army forces in Europe by two heavy brigades scheduled to come home from Germany at least two years sooner than under the new program. Now, one brigade will remain in Germany until 2012 and the other until 2013.

Even after the return of those two brigades to the United States, two brigades will remain in Europe, one in Germany and one in Italy, along with a large contingent of service and support personnel. Altogether, the Army will maintain more than 37,000 troops on the continent.

The commitment to keep about 10,000 extra troops in Europe above the level of previous plans was advocated as necessary to sustain training and other exercises with foreign militaries, and as a hedge against risks to American security.

The full basing plan for the United States, Europe and South Korea was presented to Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in the Oval Office on Monday by Gen. Richard Cody, the Army vice chief of staff, and Pete Geren, the Army secretary. It was driven by the president’s approval to expand the Army by 74,000, including the Reserves, to meet the needs in Iraq and Afghanistan and to prepare for future threats.

Army and Pentagon officials involved in the plan made no secret that some members of Congress had weighed in heavily to secure additional forces in their states, and to assure that the plan to hold off for several years the return of two brigades from Germany would not diminish the eventual level of forces to be based in their areas.

“The Army is undergoing the largest transformational change since 1942,” General Cody said, as a full one-third of the Army will be based at different stations by 2011.

The active-duty Army end-strength is scheduled to reach 547,000 by then, as the Army’s fighting force will grow to 48 brigade combat teams from 33 in 2003.

New construction for housing, headquarters and motor pools — as well as health care and child care centers — will top $66.4 billion by 2013, General Cody said, emphasizing that the Army was paying special attention to quality-of-life issues for the all-volunteer force. He said that under the new plan, combat brigades would live alongside and train with the support, sustainment and intelligence units with which they would go to war.

One compelling argument for keeping more troops in Germany longer than previously planned is that their new housing was not yet ready at bases in the United States. Therefore, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates decided on holding troops and families in Europe until they could move directly into their final residences.

“It would have cost millions of additional dollars to build temporary housing to get those two brigades back as originally scheduled,” said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

More propaganda coming out of Pakistan about the prison escape of British-Pakistani citizen and Al Qaeda operative Rashid Rauf — the alleged mastermind of the London Planes Plot of August 2006.

In "Pakistan agents 'staged escape' of terror suspect," The Sunday Times reports that according to Rashid Rauf's "friends," he was kidnapped by Pakistan's military intelligence and likely shot. This "fear" is echoed by Rauf's former cellmate, Khalid Khawaja, whom the Times describes as "a former Pakistan intelligence agent who counts Osama Bin Laden as a friend."

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Country on alert after dozens killed by bomber targeting worshippers at mosque

by SAEED SHAH | Special to The Globe and Mail | December 22, 2007

ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan was placed on high alert yesterday after a suicide bomb attack in the middle of the country's election campaign killed at least 50 worshippers at a mosque.

The apparent target of the attack was Pakistan's former interior minister, Aftab Sherpao, the top security official until the government was dissolved a month ago to allow an election to take place under a caretaker administration.

He was in charge of the fight against domestic terrorism, including the storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in July, which left more than 100 militants dead and extremist groups vowing revenge.

The bomber struck as the faithful were attending prayers to celebrate Eid al-Adha, one of the holiest days in the Muslim calendar, which is traditionally marked by the ritual sacrifice of animals.

"It was a massacre," Mr. Sherpao said.

He is close to Pakistan's highly controversial President, Pervez Musharraf, who is a key U.S. ally in the war on terrorism.

The courtyard of the mosque in Mr. Sherpao's home village, in Pakistan's volatile northwest, was left with pools of blood, prayer caps and shoes where about 1,000 worshippers had stood.

It is thought that the attacker, wearing a suicide vest filled with nails and ball bearings, stood several rows behind Mr. Sherpao, who was at the front of the congregation lined up for prayers.

At least 80 were wounded, including Mr. Sherpao's son. Among the 50 dead were policemen who were guarding the former minister.

It was the second time in eight months that he survived a suicide attack. In April, 28 people died when a bomber struck his party headquarters in the nearby town of Charsadda, injuring Mr. Sherpao slightly.

After yesterday's bombing, dozens of police and intelligence agents raided a madrassa, an Islamic school, in a nearby village and arrested seven students, some of them Afghans, police said.

"The intent is to create fear," said Khalid Aziz, a political analyst based in the provincial capital, Peshawar. "It was a warning to Mr. Sherpao not to contest in the elections. He is a symbol, a rich target for the opposing side."

Politicians seeking votes in the run-up to an election on Jan. 8 will now have to reconsider whether they can hold public meetings and canvass openly, said Farzana Shaikh, research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

"Obviously this has raised very serious concerns about security," Dr. Shaikh said. "What it clearly points to is a determination on the part of the so-called neo-Taliban not to subscribe to a political process that President Musharraf is obviously very, very keen to have in place."

Further attacks could lead to the postponement of the election, she added.

On Dec. 14, 40 Taliban factions in Pakistan came together to form a unified organization, the Tehrik Taliban-i-Pakistan, which gave the authorities 10 days to halt military operations against them and release their prisoners or they would launch unspecified action "for attaining glorious objectives."

Mixed up with the Pakistani Taliban, sometimes referred to as the neo-Taliban, are Taliban elements from neighbouring Afghanistan, as NATO forces push them back, and al-Qaeda.

Some have suggested that the recent mysterious escape from Pakistani custody of British alleged terrorist Rashid Rauf could be linked to some kind of deal with the militants to free their comrades.

Yesterday in Washington, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates warned that al-Qaeda is regrouping in Pakistan's lawless border region with Afghanistan and focusing on Pakistan.

"There is no question that some of the areas in the frontier area have become areas where al-Qaeda has re-established itself," Mr. Gates said. "Al-Qaeda right now seems to have turned its face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and Pakistani people."

Extremists mounted their most bloody assault in the country this year on Oct. 18, when twin bombings killed about 140 people in Karachi at a homecoming rally for former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

Most attacks, which have sharply escalated since the Red Mosque siege, have targeted the security forces and shown a level of sophistication that experts say is the work of al-Qaeda, rather than the Taliban.

On the Pakistani side of the Afghan border, the state is being driven out altogether by militants. Yesterday in the capital Islamabad, students with family in that region demonstrated, saying it is too dangerous for them to return home.

The students were mostly from the Shia minority sect of Islam. They said that militants would kill any Shiites they found; the names of Shia Muslims often mark them.

Last weekend, after lifting the state of emergency he imposed on Nov. 3, Mr. Musharraf had said he was able to restore the constitution partly because security forces had "broken the back" of terrorism.

Friday, December 21, 2007

The bombshell National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program asserted with a “high degree of certainty” that Tehran had abandoned its nuclear weapons in 2003 due to international pressure and as part of a negotiated agreement with the Europeans. The report stated that even if Tehran were to restart its program, it would not have enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon until 2010 at the earliest.

The NIE is widely seen as a decisive blow to the neoconservatives and Bush administration hawks who have been advocating a preemptive attack on Iran, depriving them of their principle casus belli. They have counterattacked, claiming that the report is based on flawed information or even Iranian disinformation, that the CIA has a history of poor analysis of proliferation issues, and that a politicized intelligence community is out to get the White House and/or Israel.

The political landscape in Washington has not yet shifted dramatically. By demonstrating that Iran has acted as a rational player, the report gives advocates of negotiations without preconditions a stronger hand. Those who still seek war have already re-written their talking points. They argue that as Iranian intentions and plans remain suspect, Teheran must be denied any ability to enrich uranium. On Dec. 4, President Bush stated that the military option remains on the table, while warning seven times that Tehran might use “knowledge” of how to enrich uranium to secretly construct a bomb. Other administration spokesmen have insisted that Iran must be denied the engineering infrastructure to manage the nuclear fuel cycle, even for peaceful purposes. The White House has asserted that it still regards Iran as its major foreign-policy problem.

An alarmed Israel, where the report’s conclusions have been rejected by both politicians and media, is considering taking unilateral action against the principle Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz. If Israel were to attack Iran, it would need Washington’s help, and U.S. forces would almost certainly be involved in any Iranian retaliation.

The history of how the NIE was developed provides an effective rebuke to those attacking it. Since late 2006, the White House has been aware that the NIE would not confirm the existence of an Iranian weapons program. In January 2007, John Negroponte resigned as director of national intelligence because he backed his analysts and refused to order the rewriting of the key judgments that appeared in the NIE draft. Vice President Dick Cheney’s office subsequently demanded several revisions and numerous reviews of the source material. Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell is loyal to the president, but, like Negroponte, was unwilling to alter the conclusions for the White House, and the administration eventually became resigned to a final report that it knew would contradict policy.

Contrary to administration claims, when conclusive new intelligence demonstrating that the Iranians had cancelled their weapons program became available in early summer 2007, the White House was informed. It is no coincidence that President Bush and his aides soon began to downplay Iranian nukes and started to emphasize “they’re killing our soldiers” to make its case against Tehran. In November, McConnell, under pressure from Congress to finish the NIE, agreed to White House demands that it be kept classified, but when the report was finally completed a month later, an unclassified summary was prepared because of concerns that inevitable leaks by Democrats in Congress would make it appear that the administration was again deceiving the American people.

The actual NIE process makes clear how impossible it would be to cook the books in order to damage the administration. Sixteen separate intelligence agencies contribute to the report and must concur on key judgments. In the case of the Iran NIE, every detail of evidence for the report’s conclusions was looked at repeatedly and from all angles. In the classified version, there are more than 1,500 footnotes describing the sources used. When the draft came to tentative conclusions, the findings were attacked by analysts acting as a “red team” to determine if there were flaws in the analysis or whether Iranian disinformation was being used to mislead CIA analysts. This process was repeated over and over again until everyone was satisfied with the results. A final no-holds-barred review took place in the White House in mid-November, attended by Bush, Cheney, Robert Gates, Condoleezza Rice, and senior staff members, where objections to sourcing and conclusions were aired. No agenda-driven judgments could possibly survive the process.

The claim that the CIA has historically had trouble reporting accurately on proliferation is based on the 2002 and 2005 Iraq and Iran NIE’s. Reporting on Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and the A.Q. Khan network was also flawed. But the 2007 Iran NIE should be judged on its merits because intelligence is not a science but a process, based on the best assessment of available information.

After the fiasco of the Iraq NIE, the Agency took a hard look at what had gone wrong. It decided that there were three issues that produced bad analysis: poor information sources resulting in “garbage in, garbage out,” political pressure to make the intelligence match the policy, and “groupthink” where assumptions based on past intelligence shape the current analysis.

To address the poor information problem, the Agency launched a major operation against Iran designated the “Persian House,” involving 175 case officers and 35 analysts. It also aggressively went after traveling Iranian officials and businessmen in Europe and the Persian Gulf, most particularly in Dubai, where the Iranian government actively does business to avoid sanctions enforced elsewhere. The effort was successful and, combined with improved technical collection against Iran, provided a window into the Iranian nuclear program. Key information came from Ali Resa Asghari, a general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who was recruited in 2003 and jointly run by the CIA and the Turkish intelligence service, MIT. Before defecting in Istanbul in February, Asghari provided critical intelligence on the Iranian program as well as on Tehran’s defense communications, permitting the NSA and CIA to obtain still more information. The intelligence available to analysts on Iran improved dramatically.

Both the Iraq NIE and the 2005 NIE on Iran suffered from White House staffers, mostly neoconservatives from Vice President Cheney’s office, participating in the review process. To deal with the problem of such political pressure, Director of Central Intelligence Michael Hayden and DNI Mike McConnell isolated analysts from policymakers and also took steps to deal with the groupthink problem. In the 2002 Iraq NIE, the consensus view that Saddam Hussein must have weapons of mass destruction influenced analysis, but proved to be untrue. The Iran NIE was instead constructed from the ground up with every assumption being challenged. The critics of the NIE curiously engage in their own groupthink when they claim that the CIA’s record of failures in the past mean that it has likely failed again. This time, however, the CIA has gotten it right. __________________________________________

Philip Giraldi, a former CIA Officer, is a partner in Cannistraro Associates.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Bill Withholds $50 Million Until U.S. Confirms Islamabad Is Reinstating Rights

By Glenn Kessler | Washington Post Staff Writer | December 20, 2007

Congress yesterday slapped restrictions on military aid to Pakistan and withheld $50 million of the administration's $300 million request until Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice can certify that Islamabad is restoring democratic rights, including an independent judiciary.

The congressional move went further than the administration's own review of aid to Pakistan after the Nov. 3 declaration of emergency powers by President Pervez Musharraf. In a decision that received little notice, the administration decided earlier this month to stop making an annual $200 million cash payment to the Pakistani government, instead converting those funds to programs for Pakistan that will be administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

The congressional aid restrictions were buried in the omnibus spending bill approved yesterday by the House and the Senate and sent to President Bush. Though Musharraf has lifted emergency rule and resigned as army chief, lawmakers intended to signal that they want to link aid to Islamabad to demonstrated progress on human rights. Pakistan has received about $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2001, though the administration maintains that about half of that is to reimburse Pakistan for expenses incurred in the fight against terrorist groups.

Bush committed in 2004 to a $6 billion, five-year program to provide military and economic aid to Pakistan, and this is the first time Congress has sought to place restrictions on that commitment.

Akram Shaheedi, a spokesman for the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, criticized the decision, saying that "the government of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan were not happy with such conditionality." He said that the country is "continuing to follow the democratic path" and that "such measures will not weaken Pakistan's resolve to fight out forces of extremism and terrorism."

In a unrelated move, lawmakers also cut the administration's funding request for democracy programs in Iran from $75 million to $60 million, diverting $15 million toward grants for software programmers who specialize in creating programs that thwart Internet firewalls erected by repressive countries such as Iran and China. The idea, which was championed by Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-Va.), is intended to assist dissidents without making them the target of arrests and harassment.

"There is a lot of uneasiness about the whole Iran democracy program," said one congressional aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "It is potentially a way of providing an excuse for cracking down on dissidents."

The legislation also withheld $100 million in aid to Egypt until Rice certifies that sufficient actions have been taken by Egypt to stop smuggling between the Sinai and Gaza, which Israel says has strengthened the Hamas militant group that controls the narrow coastal strip. The legislation, however, allows Bush to waive the restriction on national security grounds.

Regarding Pakistan, lawmakers not only withheld a portion of the money sought by the administration but also strictly limited the use of the remaining $250 million to "counter-terrorism and law enforcement activities directed against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and associated terrorist groups." The language is intended to make if difficult for Pakistan to use the money to acquire F-16 jets or Sidewinder missiles, which are aimed at neighboring India, not terrorists.

"This is going to be a problem," said a State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities. "The Pakistanis really want the F-16s. It is very symbolic in their eyes."

The congressional aide acknowledged that "we are undoubtedly going to have an argument with the administration," saying "my guess is that they will interpret that rather broadly" and argue that F-16s are needed for the fight against terrorist groups. But he noted that ban also extended to the acquisition of naval equipment, "and the last time we checked, the Taliban did not have a navy."

To release the $50 million, the legislation says, Rice must certify that Pakistan is "making concerted efforts" against terrorist havens and is implementing a long list of democratic reforms, including ensuring freedom of assembly and expression, releasing political detainees, ending harassment and detention of journalists, human rights defenders and government critics, and restoring an independent judiciary.

Congress also appropriated up to $350 million in economic aid to Pakistan and up to $5 million for administrative expenses needed by USAID to manage the $200 million in funds that had previously been given as a check to the Pakistani Ministry of Finance. The agency had estimated it needed about 31 people to make grants and monitor projects run by nongovernmental groups. "None of the funds appropriated by this Act may be made available for cash transfer assistance for Pakistan," the bill says.

The shift is the one tangible result of a lengthy administration review of aid to Pakistan, which was announced without fanfare during a congressional hearing this month.

Ending the direct payment to Pakistan and directing the $200 million to specific projects will "directly benefit the Pakistani people and will make Pakistan a stronger and more secure ally in the war against terrorism," Assistant Secretary of State Richard A. Boucher told the Senate on Dec. 6. But he argued that Congress should not cut overall funding levels for Pakistan.

Friday, December 21, 2007

KARMIEL, Israel -- Fatina and Ahmad Zubeidat, young Arab citizens of Israel, met on the first day of class at the prestigious Bezalel arts and architecture academy in Jerusalem. Married last year, the couple rents an airy house here in the Galilee filled with stylish furniture and other modern grace notes.

But this is not where they wanted to live. They had hoped to be in Rakefet, a nearby town where 150 Jewish families live on state land close to the mall project Ahmad is building. After months of interviews and testing, the town's admission committee rejected the Arab couple on the grounds of "social incompatibility."

They petitioned Israel's high court to end such screening, claiming discrimination, a charge town officials are challenging.

"We can't just be good citizens," said Fatina, 27, who is expecting the couple's first child. "If they won't develop our villages, then we will choose where we want to live. The problem lies not with us, but with Jewish society that does not accept the other."

The Zubeidats are players in a wider ethnic clash unfolding in the Galilee, a northern region where Arabs, those who remained in Israel after its creation in 1948 and their descendants, outnumber Jews. Israel's policies have deepened the gulf between Arab and Jewish citizens in recent years, through concrete walls, laws that favor Jews, and political proposals that place the Arab minority outside national life.

This process of separation within Israel's original boundaries mirrors in many ways the broader one taking place between Israelis and Palestinians in the occupied territories.

With most of Israel's land controlled by a government agency, Israeli Arabs have long had more trouble acquiring property than Jews, who outnumber them five to one in a population of about 6.5 million people. In response, Arab lawmakers joined a Jewish parliamentary majority this year in endorsing the construction of a new Arab city in the Galilee, where demographic rivalry and ethnic separation are most pronounced. Arabs say it will be the first city built on their behalf since the state's founding.

But some Jewish political leaders have suggested that Israel's Arabs, who commonly refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel, should eventually live in a future Palestinian state, the subject of peace negotiations inaugurated last month in Annapolis, Md. Israel's foreign minister and lead negotiator, Tzipi Livni, said before the meeting that such a state would "be the national answer to the Palestinians" in the territories and those "who live in different refugee camps or in Israel."

Arabs and Jews study in separate schools in Israel -- the Arab system receives fewer resources -- and learn Israeli history in different ways. Israel's Jewish education minister, Yuli Tamir, ordered this year that Arab third-grade textbooks note that Arab citizens call Israel's 1948 War of Independence "the catastrophe." Many Jewish lawmakers reacted with scorn.

Except for a relatively small Druze population, Arabs are excluded also from military service mandatory for all but ultra-Orthodox Jews, an essential shared experience of Israeli life and a traditional training ground for future political leaders. Arab lawmakers have lined up now against a new proposal for Arabs to perform "national service" in lieu of time in the army, an institution they hold responsible for enforcing the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.

"We have lost the Arab citizens of Israel," said Amir Sheleg, 63, who is head of security for the Jewish community of Nir Zevi on Israel's coastal plain. "They no longer want to be a part of the state, and I am sorry for it."

Sheleg, burly and bald, patrolled in a black pickup truck along a concrete wall that rises along the town's edge. The 15-foot-high barrier, funded by the government, divides the leafy streets of Nir Zevi from the adjacent Arab community of Lod. Rising crime, he said, prompted his town to begin building the wall four years ago.

"It only adds hatred," said Rifat Iliatim, 39, an Arab resident of Lod who sells horses for a living. "All our lives we lived together and there was respect on both sides. Do they want this part of Israel to be like Jerusalem or Gaza where Jews and Arabs are separate?"

ACRE

Acre is a city of 52,000 Arab and Jewish citizens, many living in mixed neighborhoods along a sweep of Mediterranean coast.

Arabs dominate the seaside Old City, a U.N. World Heritage Site of crenellated stone walls possessed over the centuries by Greeks, Egyptians and Crusader kings. A single crowded high school just outside the ancient walls serves the entire Arab population, 27 percent of Acre's total. The city's five mosques, including el-Jazzar, the second largest in Israel and the territories after al-Aqsa in Jerusalem, are also concentrated in the area.

Jews live in the newer, outlying neighborhoods that ring the Old City. For more than two decades, Jews rising into the middle class left the older neighborhoods and Arabs filled in behind them.

"This is a mixed city and that's a fact," said Ohad Segev, Acre's Jewish director general, who believes the two groups should mix as little as possible. "Just as I wouldn't allow a yeshiva to open in the Old City, I wouldn't allow a mosque to open in the new one."

In the past year, conflict between Arabs and Jews -- over business hours, the right to open mosques, and an increasing Jewish presence in Arab-majority areas -- has flashed through neighborhoods running between the two largely ethnically distinct parts of the city.

Yeshiva Hesder-Acco is dwarfed by decrepit apartment buildings with laundry hanging from balconies. Once populated by new Jewish immigrants, the apartments are filled now by Arabs. Young girls walk the streets in head scarves. Arab boys play soccer on the asphalt court next to the yeshiva.

"It's just background noise, part of the scenery," said Mordechai Behar, a 22-year-old yeshiva student, referring to his Arab neighbors. "We try not to interact with them."

Yossi Stern, a 35-year-old rabbi, runs the yeshiva with a bustling energy. He arrived in 2001 from the West Bank settlement of Elon Moreh, one of the earliest and most radical in the territories, where he was a teacher.

His move reflected a shift in his focus from settling the West Bank to promoting a larger and more politically aware Jewish majority within Israel's original boundaries. He has grown the yeshiva from 20 to 120 students since then.

"Inside the Green Line, people have not awakened to their role of the last 100 years," Stern said, referring to the 1949 armistice line that marked Israel's boundary until it seized the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights in the 1967 Middle East war. "If we fall asleep here, we will wake up to an Arab majority."

His students volunteer in public schools and direct tours of the Old City, where a state-run development company is buying Arab property and selling it to Jewish businessmen.

Stern works with the city government, led by a Jewish mayor, on projects designed to attract Jews to Acre, including a recently approved housing development designated for Jewish military families. Built on state land, the development will include a new, 350-student yeshiva that Stern advertises as "the center for Jewish identity in the Galilee."

"We're not trying to build a settlement in this city," he said. "Here we're mature enough to see this as a long process."

But Ahmad Odeh, an Arab member of the city council, calls Stern precisely that -- "a settler" trying to make Arab neighborhoods more Jewish. Odeh's family fled from the Galilee village of Shaab during the 1948 war, eventually settling in a neighborhood not far from Stern's yeshiva. Odeh has sued the Jewish-majority council successfully six times for violating Arab rights to education and property.

Odeh, a slight, wiry man with spiky hair, has been lobbying the council to reopen a mosque outside the Old City that the government closed decades ago. It sits among some of the city's more than 50 synagogues.

Because the single Arab high school is overcrowded, Odeh's eldest daughter commutes to one in a village 45 minutes from town, reversing the rural-to-urban migration patterns of recent decades.

"This is all part of the project to Judaize the Galilee," said Odeh, 48. "We want to be partners in our city."

KARMIEL

This hilltop community with streets lined by date palms and split by lush grassy medians emerged in the 1960s as a Zionist response to the large Arab population in the Galilee. The Zubeidats are among a tiny fraction of Arabs who live here.

The couple considered building a home in Sakhnin, a nearby Arab town. But as with many Arab towns and villages, its public services pale next to those of Jewish ones. The prospects appeared better in Rakefet, and they applied to live there after marrying.

The Israel Land Administration controls 93 percent of the land in Israel, including the hilltop where Rakefet sits. The government agency has a say in who is allowed to live in such communities with a representative on the local "absorption committees" that weigh the applications.

For the Zubeidats, who speak Hebrew and Arabic fluently, the months-long process began in the summer of 2006. It included a series of interviews and tests, some taken with the dozen or so Jewish applicants also seeking to move in.

"All the questions had to do with how we would integrate into the community," Fatina said. "We have many, many Jewish friends. We spend our holidays with them, and they do the same. We're not from outer space, we're from here."

The rejection letter followed a conversation the Zubeidats had with an official from the Misgav Regional Council, which oversees Rakefet and dozens of other nearby towns. He told them, Fatina recalled, that although they were "very nice people," he would have to begin marketing Rakefet as a "mixed community" to possible buyers in Tel Aviv if they moved in. The designation would hurt sales.

"Obviously, this whole process was designed to push us back to Sakhnin," Ahmad said. "And the way these Arab towns are now, it's like a ghetto."

Maya Tsaban, a spokeswoman for the regional council that oversees Rakefet, said, "This decision was based on rules we didn't make," referring to regulations established by national government agencies. She declined to comment further.

The Israel Land Administration, which set the selection criteria, rejected the Zubeidats' appeal this year. An agency spokeswoman, Ortal Tzabar, said, "One aspect taken into consideration in deciding whether to accept someone is the homogeneity of the community."

The houses of Rakefet are set along steep, curving streets lined with pines and cedar. Nadav Garmi, a 35-year-old engineer, is building a home there. He makes a short drive each day from his neighboring community -- also populated only by Jews -- that falls under the same regional council.

"I'm very left-wing, but I think Arabs should live in one place, ultra-Orthodox Jews in one place, secular Jews in one place and so on," Garmi said. "If you want a good neighbor, you have to have a place for everybody. It's best not to mix too much."

Friday, December 21, 2007

On Dec. 13, the jury in the trial of Lyglenson Lemorin, a Haitian immigrant and one of seven men dubbed the “Liberty City Seven,” came back with an acquittal. The seven were entrapped in Florida by the federal government and paraded as proof and validation of the necessity for the Bush regime’s phony, racist “War on Terror.”

The jury hung on the case of the six other men, who were said to be involved in an al-Qaida-inspired type of attack on the Sears Tower in Chicago.

From the beginning, the Bush regime seized on the arrests of the men on June 22, 2006, and said that the men symbolized “homegrown” threats of terror.

However, there was little evidence and what evidence there was can best be described as smoke and mirrors. The whole case hinged on an FBI agent and a paid informant who did most of the talking. It was very similar to other frame-ups and entrapments, such as that of Derrick Shareef, a young Black man arrested in Chicago in December 2006 (see Workers World, Dec. 21, 2006).

Then Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said in June that the group was a symbol of “smaller, more loosely defined cells who are not affiliated with al-Qaida, but who are inspired by a violent jihadist message.”

A supposed key piece of evidence that the men sought affiliation with the group is a videotaped oath of allegiance to Al-Qaida. The FBI informant who went by the name “Brother Muhammad” claimed to have contact with al-Qaida, and it is this “message” of al-Qaida that the men were tied to. Yet the informant did most of the talking on the FBI recordings.

The men had no weapons and no explosives, this even according to former Attorney General Gonzales. The supposed supplier of the weapons was Brother Muhammad, who promised them $50,000 dollars. Narseal Batiste, one of the Seven, contends the $50,000—which is more than twice the amount of the income per capita for Miami-Dade—was the motivating factor behind the fake plot.

The defense contends that it was either a plot to take the money that was hatched by Batiste or the manipulation and coercion by the FBI that propelled the conspiracy along. Defense Attorney Albert Levin said, “This was all written, directed and produced by the FBI.”

The men, who supposedly followed Batiste, were all poor, Black and from the United States, Haiti or the Dominican Republic. The warehouse where the men slept is in an area with an official poverty rate of 30 percent, one of the poorest areas of the country.

Residents in the community where the men lived said they were quiet and well mannered. Marlene Phanor, the sister of Stanley Phanor, one of the Seven, said, “All they was doing, was trying to do, was clean up the community.”

The only evidence points to a plot made by the federal government and of men whose only crime was made by the U.S.—being Black and poor.

The frame-ups are done to confuse a rising movement in the U.S. and around the world with the myth that the U.S. is under siege, and that the wars and threats of war are defensive maneuvers and to shore up democracy around the world, instead of just imperialist plunder.

The acquittal in the case of Lemorin, who has not been released because of an immigration hold, is a blow to the Bush regime. The 33-year-old had moved to Atlanta months before the arrests and hadn’t even had contact with the group or been to the warehouse in Liberty City.

Perhaps Lemorin’s acquittal portends the result of the retrial of the six remaining men, but their fates cannot be left up to the courts. While there was a rigorous defense of the young men around the country, the anti-war movement as a whole ignored the case.

The defense of the Liberty City Seven needs to be part of a campaign that seeks to squash the racist criminal justice system that entraps majority people of color, and part of a determined anti-imperialist movement that aims to beat back the U.S. ruling class drive for greater profits from which war is an outgrowth. Its cross hairs are aimed at the poor and oppressed around the world.

The Bolivarian Youth in Miami is pushing for a mass protest calling for the freedom of the Liberty City Seven on the day that they will be retried, Jan. 7, 2008. For more information call 786-985-9048.Articles copyright 1995-2007 Workers World. Verbatim copying and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any medium without royalty provided this notice is preserved.

Friday, December 21, 2007

ISLAMABAD: The inquiry committee constituted by the Ministry of Interior to probe Rashid Rauf’s escape from police custody is trying to deflect the international pressure by putting the blame on the low-ranking police persons, reliable sources in the Ministry of Interior told The News.

Three junior police officials, two Head Constables and a Line Officer (LO), have been held responsible in the report for the escape but the committee has not suggested any action against the accused police officials, the sources said.

“No senior police officer has been held responsible for Rauf’s escape”, the sources told this correspondent. “The draft of the fact-finding inquiry report is complete but not yet submitted to the concerned authorities”, the sources said.

The committee, comprising Additional Secretary Interior Imtiaz Qazi (Chairman), Additional Director General FIA, Mirza Yaseen, Deputy Commissioner Islamabad, Amer Ali Ahmad and DIG (Prison Punjab) was set up to compile ‘documentary evidence’ to be produced before the international agencies.

“The government should hold a judicial inquiry to replace the departmental inquiry made by the SSP, Islamabad”, they maintained. “Actually, the Ministry of Interior and home office Punjab are responsible for not declaring Rauf a ‘high profile’ suspect”, the ministry sources opined adding, “they only mentioned him as killer of his uncle in the UK. Even the British agency didn’t mention him as terrorist”, the sources maintained. “The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) could be held equally responsible for this criminal negligence because the agency was prosecuting the case of extradition of the suspect in the trial court,” they claimed, adding, “In these circumstances, Rashid Rauf cannot be ‘assumed’ as terrorist.”

Meanwhile, the sources quoting the statements of the people involved in the ‘escape episode’ told ‘The News’ that Rafique, the maternal uncle of Rauf and Zahoor were present during court hearing.

Having now read it, a few comments, focussing mainly on the applicability of the model developed in this paper.

The applicability problems are mainly the result of assumptions developed in the introduction. To quote from page one -

"Those factors responsible for the onset of collapse are now well established. Despite localised and substantial horizontal impacts by fuel-laden aircraft, both towers survived until the intense fire compromised the ability of the remaining, in-tact columns close to the aircraft impact zones to sustain the weight of the buildings above them. The subsequent near free-falling of these upper parts over the height of just one storey resulted in dynamical “over-loading” of the relatively undamaged lower columns by a factor of 30 compared to their static load capacity, according to Bazant and Zhou (2002).

We can also argue, I think, that it is not "well established", and is speculative and not evidence based. The same might be said about the "intense fires" and of the nature of the failure of the "in-tact columns". Even so, it is a big leap from there to the next sentence, "the subsequent near free-falling of these upper parts" - thus going from "compromised" to a presumed simultaneous disappearance of all the columns, just like that.

As often elsewhere in this paper, he then cites Bazant and Zhou, as the authority to cover an otherwise surprising conjecture. This fire-generated "freefall" is important though, because that is all they have available to provide the initial collapse energy.

Seffen goes on to say this of Bazant and Zhou -

"They argue that the storey immediately below bears the brunt in terms of a localised, plastic buckling of its columns, and they show that the commensurate dissipation cannot arrest the motion of the falling part, leading to a sustained collapse."

Gordon Ross has done the best debunking of Bazant and Zhou that I have seen so far. -

Bazant and Zhou ignore the elastic deformations, and they only looked at the "storey immediately below", as if it was stood on the ground in isolation. Elastic deformations are the "springiness", which famously allowed the towers to sway in the wind, and which is characteristic of steel. Gordon Ross' analysis shows that this giant spring would have made a huge difference; and therefore the collapse would have been arrested with only minor buckling.

Seffen then gets on to his "propagating instabilities", page 2, saying, "damage accrues in a prescribed fashion following an initiation phase. Depending on the local collapse behaviour inveigled by the instability sweeping through the initially undamaged structure". Usually, it is normal in such cases to be able to point to some physical details, about the materials and the geometry, that allows this "instability" to propagate; but in this paper it is not developed beyond a series of floors being squashed.

Next, a rare comment that indicates the actual details of the collapses were ever studied. -

"It is also clear that both collapse modes were progressive, as indicated by film footage: there was the sound of each successive impact of floor upon floor and a matching sequence of lateral ejection of debris."

It is clear that he didn't notice that the top sections of the towers disintegrated first, into plumes of debris, before the collapse wave moved down the towers, thus totally invalidating their "freefall impact" idea as the power source to propagate the instability through the undamaged structure below.

I am also surprised he is saying "there was the sound of each successive impact of floor upon floor" since it doesn't seem that clear-cut, to me, particularly since some are heard just before the collapse. The video "911 Eyewitness" has a good study of this subject.

"For both WTC towers, the distributed nature of the aircraft impact sites resulted in a reduced but uneven cross-sectional stiffness over several floors due to differing degrees of missing and deteriorating material.

As the most severely affected columns gave way at one level within the impact site, the upper parts fell onto an already weakened cross-section compared to the rest of the building further below.

The resulting impingement produced peak forces correctly identified by Bazant and Zhou (2002) to be far in excess of the design capacity of these columns and hence, above the expected value of “Pmax ” (Fig. 1) that could be reasonably carried by them, even if perfect and undamaged. These columns began to deform plastically, thereby seeding failure of this, next part of the structure."

This sounds almost reasonable, if you believe in the "intense fires", and sudden weakness in hot steel, and it sounds like the collapse would be strongly asymmetric. With a few more cites of Bazant and Zhou, in the next few paragraphs, this problem is avoided by having all columns, in the model, buckle in unison and in a one-dimensional and linear way.

Using this simplification, the mathematical model is then constructed, and by the end of page 7 we have a result from the model indicating that it only has a quarter of the usual static strength when hit by a progressive instability.

Interestingly, on page 8, he considers some other factors that might make the model seem unrealistic; including elastic buckling -

"The magnitude of this ratio can be very large, but elastic buckling of the relatively stocky WTC box columns is unlikely. Instead, Bazant and Zhou (2002) suggest that, more realistically, the columns fracture under very little bending immediately beyond the squash load, thereby removing the softening phase altogether in Fig.2. "

The only reason that the WTC columns can be regarded as "stocky" is because they are only looking at one floor at a time. In reality the columns were going from top to bottom, and this is where taking each floor in isolation is a false approximation. The extensive cross-bracing, within the structure is, another issue that is completely ignored by the model.

In the next section, titled Dynamical Model of Collapse, we have this -

"Lateral stability is not considered in view of the near vertical collapse of both WTC towers."

In other words, since both the towers collapsed completely vertically, there is no reason to consider why they might have gone asymmetric.

Also, we have -

"The building everywhere above this floor begins to accelerate downwards as a rigid undamaged body when, at time t = 0, it impinges on the floor and columns beneath, which are assumed to fail in the manner proposed in the previous section. The instability is formed as a level “crushing front”, its propagation is compatible with the uniform compression of successive storeys,"

A "rigid undamaged body" acts as a hammer and destroys the rest of the building, except as pointed out earlier, far from being rigid and undamaged, it can be seen to disintegrate into a plume of debris first. Therefore we know this mechanism being described did not happen, and the model takes no regard of the obvious loss of mass as the debris falls away. The way the model relies on the top section, the most lightly-built part, to behave as a rigid body while destroying the larger and most strongly-built section, is also worth considering.On page 13, he says -

"Thus, it is entirely appropriate to move the study forward within the spirit of using Eqn 10 directly, for it is assumed primarily that dissipation is confined to quasi-static deformation in the columns and that the progressive nature of collapse demands a continuous mass entrainment."

It demands a "continuous mass entrainment" - unlike what was actually observed.

Then on page 14 -

"As argued in Bazant and Zhou (2002), it is likely that the uppermost parts of the WTC towers were falling freely due to an absence of column resistance in the first weakest storey"

I wonder if Dr Seffen considers it "likely" himself, or if he just modestly prefers the credit to go to Bazant and Zhou once again.

The model is then further developed, to finally produce graphs representing possible collapse times for the towers, had they suffered this type of collapse, against varying levels of resistance, from zero up to a point where the resistance would have arrested the collapse. This then allows the strength of the towers, against this type of progressive instability collapse, to be read off the graph by using the observed collapse times. There is no discussion about the variation of this figure between the two towers.

It would be interesting to see a computer simulation of the collapse described for the towers by this model - I am sure it would look most unlike what was actually seen.I did wonder what real situation this model would in fact model. Two ideas have come to mind. A vertical stack of empty Coke-cans crushed by dropping a brick - provided those lateral instabilities were dealt with somehow. You can then calculate the downward speed of the brick crushing the tins.

Another is the Kung Fu exhibition stunt where somebody punches down through a stack of roof tiles. You can probably estimate the maximum number broken for various amounts of available continuous punch-force. Maybe not the most useful idea…

Dr Seffen's acknowledgements -

"The author is extremely grateful to two anonymous referees for insightful and supporting comments."

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Islamabad: A high-level probe team that investigated the escape of a British suspect in an alleged plot to blow up trans-Atlantic jetliners has concluded that his police escorts helped him get away, a newspaper has reported.

The investigation report on Rashid Rauf's escape last Saturday was expected to be submitted to the government.

The Dawn newspaper said the report termed the incident a case of "criminal collusion".

Rauf was arrested in Pakistan in August 2006 before the alleged plane bombing plot was foiled.

Britain has sought his extradition in connection with the death of his uncle there, and he had appeared before a judge in Islamabad on Saturday in connection with the case.

The World

PakistanSuspect in plane bombing plot 'fled with police help'

APPublished: December 20, 2007, 23:29

Islamabad: A high-level probe team that investigated the escape of a British suspect in an alleged plot to blow up trans-Atlantic jetliners has concluded that his police escorts helped him get away, a newspaper has reported.

The investigation report on Rashid Rauf's escape last Saturday was expected to be submitted to the government.

The Dawn newspaper said the report termed the incident a case of "criminal collusion".

Rauf was arrested in Pakistan in August 2006 before the alleged plane bombing plot was foiled.

Britain has sought his extradition in connection with the death of his uncle there, and he had appeared before a judge in Islamabad on Saturday in connection with the case.

Police officials claim that, on his way back to Adiala Jail in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, Rauf was allowed to go to a mosque for prayers but slipped out of the back door.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Two Pakistani police officers were charged with criminal conspiracy after a high-powered committee found that they had helped Rashid Rauf, a key suspect in the Heathrow bomb plot, to escape.

Mr Rauf, a British national of Pakistani origin, fled custody as he was being transported from an Islamabad court to the high-security Adiala jail in the garrison town of Rawalpindi on Saturday.

An investigation into the incident revealed that the escape was facilitated by Mohammed Tufail and Nawab Zada, the police officers guarding him.

"It is not a case of negligence, but a case of criminal collusion," the enquiry committee set up by the Interior Ministry said. The guards who had escorted Mr Rauf to the court on three previous occasions removed his handcuffs and let him get away, the report said.

The report presented to the Government, this morning, has recommended action against senior police officers for negligence as they failed to take the appropriate security measures required for the transportation of highly dangerous prisoners.

The investigation revealed that the two police officers had illegally taken Mr Rauf to his uncle's house on two previous occasions after court hearings. The officers had apparently developed good relations with Mr Rauf and his family.

The officers who were detained for questioning after the incident, told investigators that Mr Rauf fled after they allowed him to say his prayers at a mosque on the way to the jail.

But the investigation showed that he was let go when he was driven to jail in his uncle's car. Police have detained Mohammed Rafiq, Mr Rauf's uncle and several other relatives for questioning.

Mr Rauf's escape has caused huge embarrassment to the Government of President Musharraf. It is also seen as a setback to Pakistan's effort to combat international terrorism.

Britain is seeking Mr Rauf's extradition in connection with the murder of another uncle, Mohammed Saeed, who was stabbed to death in Birmingham in 2002. Mr Rauf would also be questioned over his alleged role in the Heathrow bomb plots.

Mr Rauf, from Birmingham, is suspected of playing a vital role in the development of the al-Qaeda threat to Britain. He fled to Pakistan after his uncle's murder and became involved with Jaish-e-Mohammed, the outlawed Islamic militant group.

He is believed to have acted as a facilitator and link man for young Britons arriving in Pakistan for jihadi training.

Mr Rauf's arrest from Pakistan's Punjab province in August 2006 triggered a series of arrests across Britain amid allegations of a plot to detonate liquid explosives on board aircraft flying between Heathrow and the United States.

A nationwide hunt has failed to turn up any traces of him. Some media reports suggest that he might have fled to the lawless tribal border region, a stronghold of Islamic militants. Investigators do not rule out the possibility of him even crossing over to Afghanistan.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

ISLAMABAD (AFP) — A government inquiry into the escape of a British terror plot suspect who escaped in Pakistan has determined his police escorts helped him flee, a local newspaper reported.

The Dawn newspaper said the probe had found "criminal collusion" in the escape of Rashid Rauf, who disappeared last Saturday while in police custody after an appearance in an Islamabad court.

It said the report into the incident, due to be formally handed to the government later in the day, also blamed Islamabad police officials for not taking extra measures to secure a man known to be a "dangerous person."

The two police officers who escorted him, who have since been formally charged, went with Rauf and his uncle to a fast-food restaurant and a mosque while they were taking him back to jail. At some point, he disappeared.

The paper said that on previous court hearings, the same two police escorts had illegally let Rauf visit his uncle's home.

Rauf was arrested in 2006 and is suspected in an alleged plot to blow up trans-Atlantic airliners with liquid explosives. Reports of the plot led airlines to limit the amount of liquids passengers may carry on board.

Britain has been seeking the extradition of Rauf in a 2002 murder case unrelated to the alleged plane plot.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is a key ally in the US-led "war on terror" but critics say the country could do more to cooperate in tracking and detaining militant suspects.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistani authorities have arrested two policemen on suspicion of aiding the escape of a Pakistani-British man suspected of involvement in an al Qaeda plot to blow up airliners, police said on Tuesday.

Rashid Rauf, wanted by British authorities, escaped from the police on Saturday after an extradition hearing in an Islamabad court.

"We have arrested two constables who were guarding the man when he escaped," said senior Islamabad police officer Moin Masood.

The policemen had told investigators Rauf managed to run away after they took off his handcuffs to allow him to pray at a mosque, another police official said.

"After the hearing, they had lunch at a nearby restaurant and then they went to a mosque from where he disappeared while he was preparing for prayers with the two policemen," said the official, who declined to be identified.

"They said it all happened in a split second and they didn't know what a dangerous person he was."

Rauf's escape is a major embarrassment for the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Former prime minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto said she was shocked by the escape and demanded a thorough investigation.

Arrested in Pakistan in August last year, Rauf was identified by Pakistani officials as a key figure in a plot to carry out suicide bombings on trans-Atlantic airliners.

According to reports, Rauf had left Britain for Pakistan in 2002 after the murder of an uncle. Britain had sought his extradition in connection with the killing.

Pakistan had said it was considering the extradition request and Pakistani newspapers had reported that he was going to be sent back to Britain.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London said on Monday Britain had been assured Rauf's recapture was a priority.

An anti-terrorism court dropped terrorism charges against Rauf in December 2006, citing a lack of evidence, and referred lesser charges, including the possession of explosives, to a civil court.

But a high court in Lahore, acting on a plea from the government, later suspended the trial in a move aimed at getting the case referred back to the anti-terrorism court.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

KARACHI - The extraordinary "escape" from police custody of Rashid Rauf, a British subject of Pakistani origin, points to a deal between the authorities in Islamabad and militants in an effort to ensure smooth national elections on January 8, but al-Qaeda remains a threat to this seemingly inventive initiative.

Police reported on Monday that Rauf, 26, had disappeared a day earlier while returning from court to Adiala jail, a high-security prison in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. He is said to have asked his two police guards for time to say afternoon prayers at a mosque. He went in handcuffed, and never came out.

Rauf was raised in Britain and returned to Pakistan in 2002, where he married and settled. He was arrested by Pakistani authorities in August 2006 in connection with a plot to use liquid explosives to blow up aircraft flying from Britain to the United States. This led to scores of arrests in Britain - the suspects are still to be charged - and prompted a major security alert at airports worldwide. Stiff restrictions on passengers' carry-on items also resulted.

But Rauf was cleared in Pakistan of terrorism charges last December and only faced charges relating to possessing chemicals that could be used in making explosives and with carrying forged travel documents.

These charges were dropped, but Rauf remained in custody over an extradition request from Britain in connection with the killing of his maternal uncle, Mohammed Saeed, who was stabbed to death in Birmingham in April 2002.

Pakistani Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz is reported to have told British Ambassador Robert Brinkely that Rauf's recapture is a "priority". It could be, though, that his release was more of a priority.

Islamabad, with Washington's support, is determined to stage credible elections next month to usher in a pro-West liberal democratic administration. President Pervez Musharraf has shed his military uniform after eight years of presidency, which has gone some way to improving the country's military dictatorship image, and the main political parties have gone back on their threats to boycott the polls.

This leaves the Pakistani Taliban militants, whose base is in the tribal areas of the country on the border with Afghanistan and who are calling for a boycott of the elections. This area, which includes North and South Waziristan and is for all intents and purposes beyond the writ of the federal government, has been proclaimed by the militants to be Islamic emirates.

The top leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, has vowed to struggle for the enforcement of Islamic law, to wage a "defensive" jihad against Pakistan, and to support the war against occupying troops in Afghanistan.

And importantly, he called for a boycott of the elections, a move that could seriously disrupt voting and undermine the credibility of the polls. Fearful of this, the authorities have tried to build bridges with the Taliban - once again - and recently bowed to their demands that scores of militants be released and that the security forces curtail their operations against militants in the tribal areas.

As a result, Baitullah reversed his demand for an election boycott. Contacts familiar with security issues who spoke to Asia Times Online are convinced that Rauf's "escape" can be seen in the context of this reversal.

The contacts point out that while Rauf might have been cleared in Pakistan of terrorist charges, he is potentially a high-value prisoner and should have been guarded by a much bigger security detail, including personnel from at least three intelligence agencies, beside the police.

It was Baitullah who announced in October that he would have former premier Benazir Bhutto killed on her return from exile. Baitullah subsequently backtracked and issued a denial of his statement after negotiating with the authorities. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda launched its own attack on Bhutto's convoy after her arrival in Karachi, with suicide bombers killing 136 people and injuring at least 450. Bhutto was unhurt.

In the same same vein, the real instigator behind the establishment of Islamic emirates in the border areas is al-Qaeda, and it will not sit idly by as the Pakistani Taliban strike deals with the establishment.

Al-Qaeda has learned from Iraq, where Baghdad made deals with Sunni militants at al-Qaeda's expense, that any peace initiatives are not in its best interests.

It is no coincidence, then, that since Baitullah's agreement not to call for an election boycott, there have been three major suicide attacks on the armed forces. In the latest incident, on Monday at least nine soldiers were killed and four wounded in an attack in the garrison city of Kohat in North-West Frontier Province. The attack is also the third since Musharraf lifted the state of emergency at the weekend, saying that "militant violence has been stopped".

The result is that the armed forces will be forced to remain proactive over the coming weeks. This is doubly troubling for them. Firstly, their efforts will be hampered as North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces across the border traditionally scale down their activities at this time. This will allow militants to easily seek haven in Afghanistan.

Secondly, as per the understanding with Baitullah, the military is meant to be backing off. The last thing Islamabad wants in the runup to the elections is highly unpopular operations in the tribal areas.

But from al-Qaeda's perspective, continued military operations are essential to keep this "war on terror" theater open and undermine any Iraq-like concessions to local militants so as to isolate al-Qaeda.

In al-Qaeda's favor, Pakistan has tried this solution many times, but it has always come to nothing. Unlike in Iraq, al-Qaeda's roots run deep in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Hundreds of Pakistani jihadis were trained in al-Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan before September 11, 2001, and al-Qaeda members have a decades-old understanding with veteran Afghan Taliban commanders.

Al-Qaeda relocated to the Waziristans after the fall of the Taliban in 2001 and immediately focused on the ideological grooming of local youths, besides introducing training programs. In the past few years, scattered Pakistani jihadis have been reorganized in al-Qaeda's camps in the Waziristans. This has led to the emergence of the neo-Taliban, a far different group from the traditional Taliban who took over Afghanistan in 1996. The neo-Taliban are strongly behind al-Qaeda and will not allow its isolation.

Al-Qaeda will continue to nurture the neo-Taliban, and the establishment of the Islamic emirates, announced by Baitullah but prompted by al-Qaeda, is an effective buffer against any Washington-backed bids to initiate peace dialogue with Taliban commanders.

Thus, the release of militants and the contrived release of Rauf hardly matter in the bigger picture of al-Qaeda's do-or-die battle in Pakistan's tribal areas and beyond.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Islamabad, Dec 18: UK terror suspect Rashid Rauf escaped from custody in Islamabad after police let his uncle drive him back to jail following a court appearance, a security official has said.

Rauf, a British national of Pakistan origin, is wanted for an alleged plan to blow up trans-Atlantic jetliners. He slipped away in unclear circumstances on Saturday after appearing before a court.

The details of his escape are likely to cause further embarrassment to the Musharraf regime, which was considering a British request for Rauf's extradition in an unrelated murder case in 2002.

The senior security official said that Rauf's uncle, Mohammad Rafiq, had convinced the two police escorts to make the drive back to jail in Rafiq's more comfortable van instead of a police vehicle.

The official said that on the way to jail in Rawalpindi, Rauf asked for permission to stop at a fast-food restaurant where his uncle bought a meal for all of them.

Then Rauf asked to visit a mosque for prayers, which was also allowed. While the prayer service was going on Rauf and his uncle disappeared.

"Rauf's uncle, who helped him escape from custody, has been arrested and is under interrogation," the official said.

Rauf's lawyer said on Monday that another of his uncles had been arrested.

"I spoke to his family and they said two of his uncles have been arrested and his house in Bahawalpur was raided," Hashmat Habib said.

The superintendent of the jail where Rauf was being held said the police escorts may have even unlocked his handcuffs when he went to pray.

"It is said that he asked permission to offer prayers and the two police officials who were escorting him allowed this," said Mohsin Rafiq, superintendent of Adiala Jail, Rawalpindi.

"It seems his handcuffs would have been removed to let him say his prayers," Rafiq said. "It is sheer police negligence." The two police escorts have also been detained for questioning.

The government has launched a nationwide manhunt for Rauf, and has established a committee to probe the escape with an initial report requested by Tuesday. The British High Commission in Islamabad said that it was in close touch with the Pakistani authorities.

"The High Commissioner spoke on Sunday to the Interior Minister and was assured that Rauf's recapture was a priority for them and that they had set up an inquiry into how the escape had happened," the spokesman said.

Arrested in Pakistan in August last year, Rauf was identified by Pakistani officials as a key figure in a plot to carry out suicide bombings on airliners travelling from London to the US, the Dawn reported.