Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment.
... See More + Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial sector accountability and the poor business climate hold back development in the financial sector and in the government debt market. The government is aiming for at least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed at improving the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth and poverty reduction will depend on its success in overcoming the binding constraints to diversified development and in reducing the costs and increasing the profitability of potential private investments.
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Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment.
... See More + Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial sector accountability and the poor business climate hold back development in the financial sector and in the government debt market. The government is aiming for at least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed at improving the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth and poverty reduction will depend on its success in overcoming the binding constraints to diversified development and in reducing the costs and increasing the profitability of potential private investments.
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Tajikistans economic growth moderated to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors.
... See More + Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and aluminum adversely affected the major export-oriented industries, pushing total industrial growth below 3 percent from nearly 7 percent a year earlier. Lower inflows of remittances due to the slowdown in Russia have translated into lower domestic demand and slower growth in services and housing construction. Though growth in agricultural output also moderated due to heavy rains and low temperatures, it was still a healthy 6 percent. Inflation began to pick up as food prices rose and tariffs for utilities were adjusted, reaching 4.7 percent for the first half of 2014 compared to 1.6 percent a year earlier. However, fixed investment grew swiftly as the public investment program got underway. GDP growth is projected to ease to 6.5 percent in 2014 because of the spillover effect from the slowdown in Russia and in export sales. A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel. A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction. Inflation pressures are expected to increase but stable global food prices should help to keep growth in inflation within a single digit. Despite slower economic growth the fiscal deficit is projected to remain unchanged in 2014 because of higher than expected revenues from foreign trade, reforms in revenue collection, and spending restraint. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP because of sluggish export growth and the remittance slowdown. Tajikistan could perhaps benefit from the Russian ban on import of food from the West but fragile market links, limited economies of scale, poor access to credit, and barriers to entry and expansion limit Tajik ability to benefit from increased Russian demand.
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Tajikistans economic growth moderated to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors.
... See More + Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and aluminum adversely affected the major export-oriented industries, pushing total industrial growth below 3 percent from nearly 7 percent a year earlier. Lower inflows of remittances due to the slowdown in Russia have translated into lower domestic demand and slower growth in services and housing construction. Though growth in agricultural output also moderated due to heavy rains and low temperatures, it was still a healthy 6 percent. Inflation began to pick up as food prices rose and tariffs for utilities were adjusted, reaching 4.7 percent for the first half of 2014 compared to 1.6 percent a year earlier. However, fixed investment grew swiftly as the public investment program got underway. GDP growth is projected to ease to 6.5 percent in 2014 because of the spillover effect from the slowdown in Russia and in export sales. A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel. A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction. Inflation pressures are expected to increase but stable global food prices should help to keep growth in inflation within a single digit. Despite slower economic growth the fiscal deficit is projected to remain unchanged in 2014 because of higher than expected revenues from foreign trade, reforms in revenue collection, and spending restraint. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP because of sluggish export growth and the remittance slowdown. Tajikistan could perhaps benefit from the Russian ban on import of food from the West but fragile market links, limited economies of scale, poor access to credit, and barriers to entry and expansion limit Tajik ability to benefit from increased Russian demand.
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Tajikistan is one of the world's most remittance-dependent economies, receiving net remittance inflows equivalent to approximately 40 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
... See More + Falling remittance inflows was one of the main transmission channels through which the 2008-09 global economic crisis adversely impacted the economy. Conversely, the pickup in growth since 2009 can also be traced to the rebound in remittance inflows (primarily from Russia, where more than 90 percent of Tajik migrants work), which reached 42 percent of GDP in 2010 and an estimated 40 percent of GDP in 2011. As the World Bank's 2011 country economic memorandum has argued, future growth in Tajikistan will depend crucially on increasing efficiency and raising private investment rates. Remittances are likely to grow more slowly than the earlier trend over the last 5-6 years, but could nonetheless be a major contributor to future growth if more go into private investment than in the past.
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Tajikistan has successfully emerged from the global economic crisis. Economic activity was strong, driven by growth in industrial production and services.
... See More + Inward remittances remain a key factor in stimulating domestic consumption. Although inflation returned to single digits, it continues to be susceptible to higher global prices of key imports. The country remains vulnerable to a range of external shocks, and economic outcomes depend critically on regional trade, transport, and investment policies. Concerns remain with respect to weaknesses in the financial sector. Structural reforms continue, and transparency has increased. The outlook is generally positive, but chronic risks remain.
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