Friday, October 12, 2012

Tricky System This Weekend; Lots To Cover

In my opinion, warm fronts are one the most tricky parts of a storm system to predict. The computer models in many instances have a difficult time nailing down the timing and the position of the rain associated with it. A few days ago when the different models were showing warm frontal development at multiple levels, I paused.

I've been burned before. Will this warm front lift north taking the moisture with it or will it hesitate and stall temporarily causing some rain along the turnpike corridor? Complicating matters are that this is going down over a weekend in mid October when most people will be enjoying fall activities as the leaves are reaching peak. The other factors show a trailing cold front which will push winds to near criteria levels Sunday with temperatures in the 70s with some scattered storms....during the Browns game! One can argue that an act of God is the only thing that can help the Browns but I digress.

The surface map today (Friday October 12th) show the beginnings of the weekend system in the south.

Dew points (available moisture) climbs Saturday and Sunday.

One projection takes the rain over the extreme 1/4 of Northeastern Ohio tomorrow afternoon. I'm not liking this!

Yet the amount of rain shown on the forecast map from the HPC doesn't reflect this. Now you know why warm fronts are tough.

The winds plotted on this chart through Sunday shows the increase in EVERY model outlook. With winds like this, it seems more plausible that the winds will help push the front further north keeping the bulk of the rain away from northeastern Ohio. I circled Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The bottom line is that the forecast details for Saturday will be changing on the fly. I wouldn't cancel outdoor activities but I would stay tuned for updates in the morning. Let's not forget about Sunday...showers and gusty winds for the Browns game for sure!!!