Suscripción a newsletter

Si desea recibir nuestro newsletter, por favor ingrese sus datos.

Inicio

Argentine Political Outlook (Oct-19-15)

Oct-19-15 - by Rosendo Fraga

1. Less than a week to go before the election, the central
question is whether Scioli will reach 40% to avoid the runoff, since today he
has more than 10 points ahead of Macri. Four surveys were published over the
weekend. The Managment & Fit poll published on daily Clarín gives Scioli
38.3%; Artemio López' published in Perfil gives him 39.6%; the CEOP on Pagina
12 shows a 40.7% lead and the IPSOS also published on Perfil gives him 42%. According
to the first two, the ruling coalition candidate would slightly remain below
40%, so a second round would be held whatever the difference was over the
second. The other two state otherwise. The Management & Fit surveys gives a
difference between Scioli and Macri of 9.1 points, Artemio López shows a
difference of 14.4, 12.5 given by CEOP and of 11.8 claimed by IPSOS. Perhaps,
it is most likely that Scioli will prevail in the first round on October 25 for
five reasons: he is the Government candidate and this is an important advantage
to win elections today, not only in Argentina but in all South America; the
opposition is divided; it has in its favor a distant runoff, which favors the
first minority, that is, winning in the first round; in the open primaries, he obtained
a 9-point advantage and usually this grows and does not decline in the definite
elections, and in the primaries he won
in 20 of the 24 provinces and 21 of the 25 districts of Greater Buenos Aires. But
Cristina has not allowed him to show a differentiation that allows him to capture
the independent votes and has a candidate for Governor of Buenos Aires - with
whom he shared the rally for the 70th anniversary of October 17 in La Matanza - who reduces his
average.

2. As Scioli has failed to dodge the risk of a run-off, the
difference between Macri and Massa has shrunk compared to the primaries. According
to Management & Fit, the 10 points of the primaries have been reduced to
8.2; as for Artemio López, to only 2.4; in the CEOP survey the reduction is to
6.7 and for IPSOS, to 5.3. This reduction means that in the last three the
difference with Scioli is higher than 10 points and consequently with Scioli at
40% there would be no second round. Two reasons can explain this negative outcome
for the candidate of Cambiemos. The first is that he failed to properly explain
to his voters the impact of the complaint against Niembro, which were added by
others, which the ruling party decided not to exploit. The second is that he
opted for a moderate speech against the Government, which generated some
disappointment among his voters. In the most recent advertisement, he resorted
to optimism and hope in the style of Scioli. But in the last days of the
campaign he will continue appealing to the "useful vote", arguing
rightly that only by voting for him, Scioli will not have a more than 10-point edge
to win by 40% in the first round with.

3. Meanwhile Massa will now focus on explaining that while
Macri loses the eventual second round with Scioli, he will win it. From this
perspective, he will continue appealing to the opposition's "useful
vote", arguing that only he can beat the Government candidate, as his most
recent advertisement claims. Out of the four polls released this weekend, only
one includes the simulation of a runoff, the IPSOS survey in daily Perfil. In
the case of a run-off between Scioli and Macri, the first would win by 53.3% over
46.7%. However, in a runoff between the FPV candidate and Massa, the latter
would win by 52.6% to 47.4%. All polls published in past weeks stated the same about
a runoff. The point is that in a runoff election, while almost all votes for Cambiemos
choose Massa over Scioli, the votes for the former are split between the
Government candidate and Cambiemos candidate. For this reason, the opposition
voter faces two contradictory concepts of "useful vote": whether to
vote for Macri to prevent the difference in favour of Scioli from exceeding 10
points, or vote for Massa to reach the eventual runoff and defeat Kirchnerism.
The reality is that Massa has managed to successfully resist polarization, has
a more accurate and effective speech, that the difference with Macri has shrunk
in the past four surveys and election is basically disputed among the three
candidates.

4. Out of the eleven provinces that elect Governor in
October 25, the most relevant is that of Buenos Aires, because it has almost
40% of the effective votes. The half-dozen polls released in recent weeks about
the voting intention for Governor show a disputed election between Aníbal
Fernández (FPV) and María Eugenia Vidal (Cambiemos). There is no runoff, so the
election will be won that day by a single vote of difference. The third
candidate (Sola), and his candidate for President (Massa), resists the
polarization and this gives possibilities to the Government candidate, despite
the resistance that he has on the public opinion. But the difference in the
province in favor of Scioli is important - especially in Greater Buenos Aires-
and this can help Fernandez, because cutting ballot papers in this districts is
not a majority practice. In the remaining 10 provinces that elect Governor,
radical party candidates could win in two (Santa Cruz and Jujuy). As for
Congress, it can be projected that the FPV bloc will increase its seats by 2 at
the Senate, bringing its majority up to 39 - half is 36 - and that the Cambiemos
bloc can approach one-third and that UNA (Massa and De la Sota) can end up with one
eighth. It should be noted that one third of the Senate elected in 2009, when
the ruling party lost legislative with a third of the votes, is being renewed.
For this reason, now with about 40% it can add some seats. The Lower House, on
the other hand, renews half in 2015, when Cristina was re-elected with 54%.
Scioli now gets about 14 points less, and for this reason, the FPV will lose
the majority in the Lower House, although it will be a clear first minority. Cambiemos
will have close to one-third and Massa and De la Sota will get approximately
one sixth.

5. To conclude:

a) Although Scioli has several advantages in the election,
opinion polls show his 40% is not secured to avoid the risk of a runoff,
although he seems to have a more than 10-point lead today.

b) In the opposition, the difference between Macri and Massa
has been reduced and the former will keep on appealing to the "useful vote" to
try expanding it and reduce the lead Scioli has over him today.

c) Massa has managed to successfully resist polarization and
considers he has winning chances over Scioli in a runoff election as opposed to
Macri.

d) In provincial governments, the UCR candidates are
expected to win in only two provinces and, in Buenos Aires, Vidal has winning
chances though in a tough context; the difference in favor of Scioli is
considerable but the ruling coalition is expected to lose the majority in the
Lower House.