Apple's iPad is expected to continue dominating the tablet market with a share higher than 60 percent, while PC sales are projected to continue their downward trend, according to a new analysis.

Analyst Rob Cihra with Evercore Partners revealed in a note to investors on Monday that he has cut his projected PC sales for the remainder of the year. He sees traditional computer sales dropping 4 percent year over year in the third quarter of calendar 2012, while overall PC growth for the year will be flat with 2011.

Cihra believes sales of tablets like Apple's iPad are responsible for "at least half" of the PC market's current decline. He noted that consumer PCs have struggled ever quarter since they topped out in the third quarter of 2010, which is just one quarter after Apple launched the first-generation iPad.

His projection comes only days after the latest estimates show PC shipments dropped 0.1 percent worldwide and 5.7 percent in the U.S. in the June quarter. One of the few bright spots in the market was Apple, which saw its domestic Mac sales grow 4.3 percent.

While Cihra believes PCs will continue to struggle going forward, even with the launch of Microsoft's new Windows 8 operating system, he has big expectations for the iPad. His forecast calls for Apple to sell 69 million iPads in calendar year 2012, taking more than 60 percent of the market, even in the face of competition from Microsoft's Surface tablets and Google's Nexus 7.

For the just-concluded June quarter, Cihra sees Apple having sold 16.5 million iPads, which would represent 78 percent year-over-year growth. That's slightly higher than the 16 million iPads Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes Apple sold, while lower than the 20-million-unit projection from Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company.

Cihra believes that a quarter of tablet purchases are truly direct replacements for PCs, while another quarter are "effectively" replacing PCs, as users delay purchasing a new computer by getting an iPad or another tablet.

"PCs now need to compete both directly/functionally and more so indirectly (for discretionary spend/mindshare) against 'thin client' architectures/ecosystems," Cihra wrote in his note to investors on Monday.

To provide a little context, this story began back when the CEO announced that tablets (the iPad) were cannibalizing notebook sales. After a small media storm and some revisionist history, that statement was watered down to the iPad only slightly effecting netbook sales. It was obvious to everyone that his first statement was true, but he had to backtrack due to backlash from companies like HP. Shortly, thereafter, HP rushed out the aborted TouchPad.

Eventually, it was clear that the iPad was starting to eat into traditional laptop sales. Apple was actually the first to publicly acknowledge this, while everyone else was still trying to do damage control. After a few bad quarters, PC makers started admitting, on the record, that the iPad was effecting their mobile business.

That was followed by a rush to KIRF the MBA, only to discover that people didn't want an ultra book; they wanted a Macbook Air. Now, it is becoming clear that the iPad is starting to cannibalize traditional PC sales, full stop! Isn't history fun?

Apple has no competition. Every commercial product which competes directly with an Apple product gives the distinct impression that, Where it is original, it is not good, and where it is good, it...

It's funny how the so-called tech nerds refuse to accept reality. They move from one topic to another hoping to find the magic bullet that will finally kill Apple. The latest argument is how a tablet running full Windows will decimate the iPad in business. The netbooks were to be the magic bullet, then the ultrabooks, then the Fire and now the Nexus 7. Just jump from one Apple killer to the next hoping against hope. It really is all about Apple with these people isn't it.

If AAPL's financial results are once again spectacular, as expected, we'll start hearing the "wait till such-and-such comes out" arguments almost immediately.

Because they like to play with their PCs. Pulling cards out of boxes, re-wiring, buying new cards to fit into slots. "Upgrading" so they can boast about an extra 5fps in the latest shooter. Comparing the latest Nvidia card to the latest ATI card, with accompanying squeals of excitement over the new anti-aliasing options.

It's funny how the so-called tech nerds refuse to accept reality. They move from one topic to another hoping to find the magic bullet that will finally kill Apple. The latest argument is how a tablet running full Windows will decimate the iPad in business. The netbooks were to be the magic bullet, then the ultrabooks, then the Fire and now the Nexus 7. Just jump from one Apple killer to the next hoping against hope. It really is all about Apple with these people isn't it.

If AAPL's financial results are once again spectacular, as expected, we'll start hearing the "wait till such-and-such comes out" arguments almost immediately.

Ice Cream Sandwich/Jellybean has surpassed IOS.

WP8 Apollo is also going to do very well.

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

"PCs now need to compete both directly/functionally and more so indirectly (for discretionary spend/mindshare) against 'thin client' architectures/ecosystems," Cihra wrote in his note to investors on Monday.

I wouldn't call the iPad a 'thin client' in the traditional sense. It is thin, and it has less storage than a modern desktop or laptop, but its reliance on a server's computational power and storage is hardly any greater than that of a common pc for most people.

Based on current lousy sales of Windows Phone and Nokia tanking? Windows Phone has been on the market for nearly two years, and in all that time,
after hundreds of millions of dollars poured into marketing, ad campaigns, product demonstrations and a lot of chest-thumping,
the entire platform is on the verge of collapse, never mind having *lost* market share from the 1-2% they had in the past.

The reality is that Windows Phone is not only terribly late, bringing nothing new to the table, it's also incredibly redundant. iPhone users won't leave,
and Android is just to attractive an option for the rest of the market. Where does that leave a late platform that is *just adequate*, that currently
offers users a lot less? Nowhere, really. As we're seeing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boogerman2000

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

This isn't what consumer satisfaction reports are saying. iPhone is tops year after year, sometimes by a wide margin.

But THIS year it'll be different. They promise! Right? WP8 Apollo will CHANGE EVERYTHING! And JellyBean will cut
into sales of iOS and iPhones!

The only market share that Android devices cut into are OTHER Android devices (much to HTC's chagrin.) iOS users stay loyal.

They'd cut into Windows Phone sales, too, if there were anything to cut into.

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

Even if that were true, those other solutions don't have the ecosystem or the integration with the App Store, iTunes and the developer programs which are the most compelling part of iOS. Regular people, not geeks, find the iPad and iPhone so enjoyable to use that they have a huge margin over the other platforms in customer retention and satisfaction. More "Fluid", if that were even true, is just not enough to win the hearts and minds of the general public or smartphone users.

The most compelling feature of the other platforms is that often they sell for less, BOGO, and that they are an option for the Apple hater crowd. As we have read countless times, when you look at the numbers, iPhone users actually use their smartphones where as the majority of the Android users are just txt and calls, no Internet and no apps. No one disagrees that that there are lots of Android phones out there but the vast majority are of the low end variety used by low tech users.

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

I think you just proved his point.

However, I don't think there is any evidence supporting your first claim. Certainly not in numbers, since most new Android phones ship with 2.3, and most users will never get an upgrade to anything. Technologically, I think you've confused feature count with quality.

As for how well WP8 will do, it's speculation, but, if we were to base it on history, we'd have to conclude it won't matter.

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

Just curious… in what way have the latest versions of Android "surpassed" iOS? I'm not sure what you mean by that...

WP8 … "apollo"? Without context, it seems a reasonably good OS (in theory, it remains to be seen), and could be positioned to do well. Given the context of market realities however, and that it's still many months away, this is a pretty speculative statement… it may do well, relative to how WP is doing today (still losing market share)… Could you quantify your idea of "do very well" for me? Again, just curious…

In your last sentence, when you say "fluid"… are you talking about scrolling, et al? And in what ways exactly are they more "advanced, modern and intuitive"…? Are you including iOS6 in your comparison, or just referring to iOS5?

Anyway, it seems your opinion squarely favors both Android and an as-yet non-existent version of Windows Phone as clearly superior to iOS…

However, since that was just a series of brief, blanket statements without any specifics, I'm not sure where I can agree OR disagree with you...

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

Looks like we have one guy spinning the story to dizziness. :)

ICS & Jellybean. Two OS's that no one has... "but hey, <insert yet another iOS-killer Android OS here> will put Apple in it's place"
Sure, iOS takes all the money, but Android OS, even though it's free, will surely make up for it on volume.... *rolls eyes*

Both are fluid for sure. They have to be when they're swirling in the big toilet bowl of tech-jokes...

I wouldn't call the iPad a 'thin client' in the traditional sense. It is thin, and it has less storage than a modern desktop or laptop, but its reliance on a server's computational power and storage is hardly any greater than that of a common pc for most people.

Just to give the author the benefit of the doubt...he/she might not have been restricting the observation to the iPad. As the trend in business (vs the "most people" you mention...remember, PC sales are heavily weighted to corporate buyers) is to move more and more data and processing to the cloud (ie, the company's servers), users no longer need a powerful machine at their desk. This means a couple of things:

a) That old PC on a user's desk doesn't need to be replaced as frequently.

b) An old (repurposed) desktop machine could replace an underpowered laptop if the mobile needs can be met via a tablet.

And there are probably a few other factors, all contributing to a decline in PC sales. The iPad is just a contributing factor, and only one example of a "thin client".

The writing is on the wall, PC as we have known them for the pass 30 years has been played out. Yes I may go and buy a new Desktop since my current one is 8 yrs old and Apple finally killed it with icloud and Mountain Lion, I do most of the daily email and surfing on an ipad. I still use a Desk top for more work intensive things, but like the last one I do not expect to replace it ever 3 yrs like has happen in the PC space.

The two frontiers in computing is mobile computing and cloud (client/Server) computing if a company is not in these two spaced they are going to be buggy whip in the coming years. Even Dell is recognizing this, they went out and bought a company they provide software solution to the server and cloud computing companies.

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

Last time the purported "toughest challenger" was the Kindle Fire.

Now, it's supposed to be the Nexus 7. Same idea. Same, bubbly reviews. And then a few months later the reality of the iPad hits.

I remember when the Laptop first came out and people said it was the death of the desktop. Never happened - some people bought laptops and some people continued to buy desktops. I suspect the tablet computer will have the same effect - it's just another computer format. It's not going to kill anything. The laptop and desktop will continue for many years.

As for that graph it just poses more questions than answers. If the iPad is directly responsible for the drop in PC sales then why did Y/Y PC growth fall in 1999-2001, 2005-2006 and 2007-2009 ? There was no iPad to explain those declines. I'm sure the iPad is taking sales away from the PC but it's impact is being overstated to prove a point and talk up the share price again. I don't know anyone who uses an iPad as their only computer - they all have a laptop or desktop as well. I love my iPad but I wouldn't scrap my desktop for it.

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

Not really, it's just that non-iPad tablets (and non-iPhone phones) get graded on a curve so that reviewers don't have to deal with an avalanche of nasty comments from fandroids pissed to hear that their beloved sucks.

Not really, it's just that non-iPad tablets (and non-iPhone phones) get graded on a curve so that reviewers don't have to deal with an avalanche of nasty comments from fandroids pissed to hear that their beloved sucks.

Come on! It's MG Siegler we are talking about! He's like the biggest Apple fan on the planet. He never said something good about Android until now! If he says Nexus 7 is great, then it's great!

Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.

Ah yes, the "Android is winning" meme. Exactly how again? Android takes 85% of the profits in the mobile device market? Umm, nope. Android is installed on more devices. Umm, which version - for sure ICS / JB are a small segment of even Android. The only Android market is the Samsung handset market. The rest are companies bleeding money - HTC. Sony. "Motorola" - pick any one you want. Windows Phone 8? When it exists, is on the market, and posts some sales than you can claim how well it's doing. To do well, you need to ship an actual product. Marketing presentations don't count. They sure don't generate sales or revenue.

You might as well have thrown BB 10 into your mix. Go for the trifecta of irrelevance.

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

The problem is that the decision criteria isn't whether the Nexus 7 or any other tablet is good or comparable to an iPad. The evaluation criteria is already defined. Every new product must be able to satisfactorily answer "Why would I get this over an iPad?" The only two characteristics that have proven successful so far are price or form factor. But that's about it so far. "Comparable" isn't going to cut it.

I wouldn't call the iPad a 'thin client' in the traditional sense. It is thin, and it has less storage than a modern desktop or laptop, but its reliance on a server's computational power and storage is hardly any greater than that of a common pc for most people.

With 802.11n and a good PC/notebook/server as the back end, do you think that an iPad would work well as a thin client?

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

Except they forgot the SD Card slot....an Android feature, or so I thought.

"PCs now need to compete both directly/functionally and more so indirectly (for discretionary spend/mindshare) against 'thin client' architectures/ecosystems," Cihra wrote in his note to investors on Monday.

Ah, but even Steve Ballmer refers to pad computers as "PC"s now. Here's a quote:

Quote:

"What we seek to have is a spectrum of stunning devices, stunning Windows devices," Ballmer said. "So, every consumer, every business customer can say, ‘I have the perfect PC for me.’

So now Ballmer is trying to tell us that "PC" means "anything that runs Windows." But before the Surface announcement, "PC" meant "any legacy desktop or laptop computer equipped with an Intel CPU and running Windows." Before the Surface announcement, anything running Windows that wasn't a legacy desktop or laptop was a "Slate" or "Windows Tablet." Not a "PC."

Pure sophistry. This will allow Microsoft to continue to claim huge "PC" numbers, even though the Slate contribution to those numbers will be negligible. And, conversely, if Apple had named their mobile OS "OS X mobile" or something like that, they could claim to be the world's #1 PC maker, because "OS X" would be running on all their computing devices. More sophistry. But it doesn't really matter whether Apple calls the iPad a "PC" or "Post-PC" device. iPad is taking sales from traditional PC vendors.

Meg Whitman, current President and CEO of HP, isn't shy about grouping iPad sales together with Mac sales. She says Apple could become the #1 personal computing device vendor as soon as this year, if you consider iPad to be a personal computing device. (Hint: it is.)

Windows 8 will cost more than $100 to upgrade an existing machine (I assume)

Windows 8 will be tied to a single machine (I assume)

Windows 8 will be a long install, tended: requiring user input throughout the process (I assume)

Depending on the answers to some of these questions, and the decline/disruption in the pc market)MS could be witnessing the collapse of their business model for consumers.

Quote:

Cihra believes that a quarter of tablet purchases are truly direct replacements for PCs, while another quarter are "effectively" replacing PCs, as users delay purchasing a new computer by getting an iPad or another tablet.

If the quote from this article is true, then (based on the 16 million iPads sold last quarter est.) 4 million pc sales are being lost to tablets per quarter, and another 4 million pc purchases are being "effective;y replaced" (delayed).

That's 8 million x 95% == 7.6 million Windows licences lost per quarter... Or 7.6 million x $100 == $700 million lost revenue to MS per quarter -- just due to the iPad disruption.

Mmm... Methinks we know why Gates, Ballmer, et al have their panties in a wad.

Add to that:

the general decline in Windows pc sales

the uncertainty that Windows 8 will be acceptable to upgrade the bulk of existing users' computers (or even for new hardware purchases)

the pressure of competition (mainly Apple) to change the structure (variants) and pricing of the OS

This could signify tectonic shift in MS' revenue from Windows.

And just to add salt to the wound, the same pressures are beginning to apply to application software for pcs (no feature/price variants, downloadable, 1 copy for all your personal computers, etc.).

Is it too early to ask if the MS business model is sustainable?

If not, then what?

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

Boy, you should read MG Siegler review about Nexus 7 in Tech Crunch: "An iPad Lover’s Take On The Nexus 7"! I didn't expect this review! He really likes it! Also Walt Mossberg review from All ThingsD: "From Google, the Toughest Challenger to the iPad". If they like Nexus 7, then I'm gone buy this tablet! Just saying, for all of you who think Nexus 7 is garbage, read the reviews. Finally, we have true competition!

Look, if you’re looking for a 7-inch tablet or any tablet of the Android variety, you’d be hard pressed to find anything better than the Nexus 7. It runs vanilla Android (future proof, perhaps) that’s actually optimized for the hardware and is relatively cheap. It’s faster, nicer and smoother than the Kindle Fire but keep in mind the lack of tablet-specific apps and how Google is touting that it’s made for Google Play.

From within the review itself, he touches on every point why this Nexus 7 is NOT an iPad alternative... nor is any other tablet on the market at this time.

Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member

I remember when the Laptop first came out and people said it was the death of the desktop. Never happened - some people bought laptops and some people continued to buy desktops. I suspect the tablet computer will have the same effect - it's just another computer format. It's not going to kill anything. The laptop and desktop will continue for many years.

New tech rarely supplants the old. Even now, we go to movie theaters and listen to AM radio.

That being said, it is quite rare to see horse drawn wagons in the city these days. Current form factors will be around for a long while, because they work well, like a paperback book at the beach.

It's even worse for PCs than that, because Macs are also PCs and are included in the PC growth trend. So the 5.7% decline is actually up to 10% if you take the Macs out of the mix. I recalculated the numbers that Gartner used, but also showed the results without the inclusion of Apple Macs. And in actuality, there is nearly a 15% spread in growth between Apple Macs and non-Macs. I'm guessing other os machines such as Linux are included in the calculations.

I remember when the Laptop first came out and people said it was the death of the desktop. Never happened - some people bought laptops and some people continued to buy desktops. I suspect the tablet computer will have the same effect - it's just another computer format. It's not going to kill anything. The laptop and desktop will continue for many years.

As for that graph it just poses more questions than answers. If the iPad is directly responsible for the drop in PC sales then why did Y/Y PC growth fall in 1999-2001, 2005-2006 and 2007-2009 ? There was no iPad to explain those declines. I'm sure the iPad is taking sales away from the PC but it's impact is being overstated to prove a point and talk up the share price again. I don't know anyone who uses an iPad as their only computer - they all have a laptop or desktop as well. I love my iPad but I wouldn't scrap my desktop for it.

What you fail to take into account is that a desktop and a laptop are just variants of a single solution -- a computer (in one form or another) running the same OS, and apps, UI, and usability strengths and weaknesses

The iPad changes [most] all of that. It is certainly a computer... but it is a computer that has been re-imagined and repurposed for what most people want a computer to do for them, most of the time.

By doing this Apple has focused on the user and provides a solution for the 5-year-old, the 95-year-old... and most people in between.

I Just went to settings and invoked Software Udate... Everything was automatic (no tending, or user input), and the devices were not attached to any computer or power supply. Takes about 10 minutes, then it reboots.

Edited by Dick Applebaum - 7/16/12 at 12:03pm

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

<<snipped, since I want to only concentrate on this portion of the post>>

And just to add salt to the wound, the same pressures are beginning to apply to application software for pcs (no feature/price variants, downloadable, 1 copy for all your personal computers, etc.).

Is it too early to ask if the MS business model is sustainable?

If not, then what?

Within the presentation, Synofsky said that the Surface RT would quote: "come with Office 13".

Now... if I take this literally, this is what MS has decided will be the "killer app" that will give the Surface RT AKA WART, the added edge against the iPad. They can NOT afford to offer a watered-down version, or else the assumed "full integration and compatibility" with the desktop version wont work.

Then, if MS also decides to price the Office 13/WART competitively... what portion of the retail price will people consider to be the "worth of Office 13"?

If a tablet at say $500,- includes Office 13, and is true to it's hype and can replace an ultrabook or laptop, is it safe to say that Office 13 is worth less than:

$100 ... $50 ... $25 ????

Is MS really seriously about to kill their goose? And yes... it is their only Goose... well except the "ugly one" Win8. And it's a long time before that one will ever be golden methinks.

PS. just wanna say thanks for the great debate and posts on the other MS thread