Ballot Returns Updated for Today

POLS NOTE: In order to make comments easier to read and understand, we decided to create a new post for these returns, rather than just updating the original post.

Below are the turnout numbers reported a little after 3:00 p.m. today by the SOS. Remember that there is some lag time in the reporting process (in other words, there are more ballots returned than what is listed below, but what is listed below is what the various County Clerks reported to the SOS today):

*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned

Democrats: 279,462/ 817,458/ 34%

Republicans: 314,264/ 855,667/ 37%

Richard Coolidge of the Secretary of State’s office also included this note in today’s ballot update:

Colorado County clerks may begin processing (not tabulating) ballots 15 days before the election. All 64 counties should have a good sample of mail ballots tabulated after 7:00pm tomorrow evening. Remember, 46 counties are voting exclusively by mail, so ballots received Tuesday may not be included in that original release of results. The remaining 18 counties will still have mail results, but will also need to factor in votes cast at precinct polling places (like El Paso, Pitkin, Las Animas, etc) or at vote centers (like Weld, Park, Archuleta, etc).

Our read on these numbers? The Michael Bennet campaign is going to be sweating it out tomorrow, hoping to see turnout reach levels cross well into the 300,000 level (the higher the turnout above 300,000, the better the odds that Bennet wins).

As for the GOP turnout, we’re curious to see how big the undervote might be. Turnout is pretty high already considering the amount of grumbling from Republicans over their (lack of) great choices for Governor, and to a lesser extent, U.S. Senate, but if most of the returned ballots are casting a vote in the race for Governor and Senate, this benefits Scott McInnis and Jane Norton in their respective races.

Previously, we have reported turnout based on active affiliated voters as directed. Today, July 30, 2010, our office received notice from the Secretary of State that the official abstract will reflect turnout based on active affiliated and unaffiliated voters.

Because AR is thought to enjoy the support of party activists. These people will always vote in the primary, good years or bad. MB needs the so-called “Lazy Ds” who may skip a primary or two, and newly minted Obama dems, to counteract that effect.

Would be more than 100,000 Democratic ballots than were cast in 2008. Basically, it’s an entire third of the electorate. If the first 200,000 voters were fairly even in selecting Bennet or Romanoff, the new 100,000 voters (new as of 2008) are much more likely to swing for Bennet, which is how 300,000 becomes a theoretical tipping point.

are more likely to be for Bennet, and that 300k Dem votes represents a theoretical tipping point) then, given the Dem votes reported this afternoon are only ~22,000 votes shy of that 300k threshold – and more ballots are still in the mail, with more voting to come tomorrow – Michael Bennet wins handily.

Not sure I fully subscribe to the hypothesis – though I’d LIKE to believe in its inevitable conclusion.

But the Dems have fewer contested races, so intuition would tell you that interest might be lower.

The other thing is, what else might be causing the lower D turnout? I got a call last Thursday from the Bennet campaign asking if I had returned my ballot yet. I said Yes, and haven’t gotten a call since. Could the lower Dem turnout be a result of an anemic GOTV effort by the Romanoff campaign? I can’t say.

Without knowing WHY the Dem turnout is lower, I am loathe to ascribe significance to it.

financial reform. Do think he does not yet realized just how screwed up Wall Street Banking is. Do believe he has more capacity for coming around while obviously having the knowledge to grasp the complexities enough to do some good work in the area. On the other hand I think Romanoff’s intentions are very good but he just doesn’t have a clue how it all works and therefore would be much more prone to being sold nice populist sounding solutions with unintended consequences stemming from the details.