"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.

Just for reference, prior to the 2008 election, Michael Barone wrote two articles around late October and early November stating that McCain is surging due to tightening polls and that state polls for battleground states (and 114 Electoral Votes) are trending towards John McCain despite the national polls.

California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.

...many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

Wow, 2nd sentence.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies

No, that's lie.

So's the rest of rest of the piece.

Florida slayed though.

I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

Uh, speaking as a North Carolinian, I wouldn't call 'sending Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, AND Jill Biden to campaign over the last weekend of the election' as 'abandoning' anything. Nor do I call the untold millions spent carpet-bombing our airways with ads to be abandonment either.

Romney leads by .5%, not exactly a commanding lead. Yes, he's likely to win, but let's put that i perspective: Obama's chances of taking our fair state are significantly higher than Romney's odds of winning the Presidency.

jake_lex:The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.

Also based on a complete misunderstanding of the concept of probability. Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Not that I would know or anything but Walker won because people in Wisconsin didn't agree with the recall attempt and wanted him to finish his term. You forget how many seats were flipped in the Wisconsin senate throughout the recall campaign. Also, you don't see as many Romney signs in peoples yards as you did Walker signs. Also I see a lot less Romney bumper stickers than I saw W'04 bumper stickers.

Not only do I want Obama to win because it'll be better for America, I want him to win so I don't have to listen to ignorant morons crow how a Romney win shows that Nate was a biased liberal and his models don't mean shiat, etc.

Girl From The North Country:"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.

All these conservative sites that are predicting a Romney win are essentially saying that the state polls are weighted incorrectly. They have corrected that weighting based on their gut feeling, which is much more accurate than statistical analysis.

Richard Freckle:"Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?

LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."

No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.

dr_blasto:The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.

dr_blasto:The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

The funny thing is that the right will do the knee-jerk response of screaming "liberal bias" but when Obama wins, they conveniently ignore what they just said and look for "fraud" because since their guy didn't win, "it must be fraud!!"

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?