Inevitable: Rich GOP donors warn Christie that their first loyalty is to Jeb Bush

posted at 5:11 pm on May 2, 2014 by Allahpundit

Imagine if all the tea-party energy of the past five years ends up in another Bush coronation in 2016. I don’t know if the party would fracture. But it should.

In private conversations that are now seeping into public view, some of them are signaling to Mr. Christie’s camp that, should Mr. Bush enter the race, their first loyalty would be to him, not to Mr. Christie, according to interviews with more than two dozen of them…

The family name, [Barry Wynn] said, remains a powerful draw. “They love the Bush family,” Mr. Wynn said. “They love the whole package, and they feel Jeb is just a part of the package.”…

At risk for Mr. Christie is not just the electoral affections of Bush loyalists, but also the backing of a still-potent national network of wealthy Republican donors and bundlers who propelled three Bushes to high office and who provided Mitt Romney with an overwhelming fund-raising advantage in 2012…

“I have great affection for Christie,” said Mel Sembler, a Florida real estate developer and Bush donor who is among the top Republican fund-raisers. “He’s done an amazing job as a Republican governor in a Democratic state. But I have great loyalty to that family because they brought me into the political arena, and I’ll be supporting Jeb Bush if he decides to run.”

Here’s the excruciating question for Christie and his supporters: If Jeb jumps in, do you jump out? More specifically, do you try to make a deal with Jeb to guarantee your future in his administration? Given the money and influence of Bushworld, defeating Bush for the centrist vote would be hard enough even for a Chris Christie at the height of his powers. For a Christie weakened by Bridgegate, it seems impossible. Not only would he have to win, he’d have to be respectful of Jeb in campaigning so as not to alienate Bush’s network of supporters in case he pulled the upset. That’d be hard to do given that Christie’s message would necessarily be some variation of “no more Bushes.” On the other hand, Christie’s term-limited as governor of New Jersey. He’ll be out of office by 2018, which is close enough to 2020 that he could probably try running that year if he doesn’t run this time — but of course, that’s contingent upon there being a Democratic president in 2020. Obviously, Christie wouldn’t primary President Jeb. If he passes on 2016, he’s taking a real risk that he’ll be out of politics in four years with no obvious path to any higher office before him. Maybe he could challenge Bob Menendez for Senate, but what are the odds of him defeating a Democratic incumbent at this point?

There’s a third possibility. Instead of running and losing to Jeb or sitting out the race and biding his time until there’s an opening again, what if he promised Jeb his enthusiastic support on the trail in exchange for a spot in his cabinet — maybe Attorney General, maybe VP, maybe something else. Bush would be grateful since that would all but clear the centrist field for him, and Christie would make a fine attack dog against Rand Paul and/or Ted Cruz on the stump. The vice presidency is probably out of the question since Jeb will feel pressure to unite the party with a more conservative pick, but AG is possible. And all of this would give Christie a way to stay in the political game, first as a top-flight surrogate for the eventual nominee and later as a cabinet officer with enough national experience to possibly run for president himself someday. Frankly, at this point, I’d be surprised if Christie didn’t pass once Jeb got in. Then Rubio will pass too, and we’ll be down to a de facto Final Four: Bush, Walker, Paul, and (maybe) Ted Cruz. Or would Walker pass too for fear of alienating the establishment by challenging King Jeb?

Exit question: If we do end up with that Final Four, does Jindal have a chance?

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I thought that the GOP donors enjoyed winning. Why are they all throwing their money on a losing proposition like Jeb Bush? Do the Bushes have dirt on all the major donors locked in a cabinet somewhere?

Not being a rich donor myself, could someone explain to me the kind of satisfaction these fellas feel while burning through their money on a candidate who is 100% certain to lose? I’m really trying to understand the psychology at play here.

I thought that the GOP donors enjoyed winning. Why are they all throwing their money on a losing proposition like Jeb Bush? Do the Bushes have dirt on all the major donors locked in a cabinet somewhere?

Illinidiva on May 2, 2014 at 5:21 PM

They don’t care who wins as long as their interests don’t get threatened. Nominating Jeb Bush keeps a conservative out of the White House and if he loses to Clinton they don’t care. They find Hillary Clinton more acceptable than a Tea Party president.

Not being a rich donor myself, could someone explain to me the kind of satisfaction these fellas feel while burning through their money on a candidate who is 100% certain to lose? I’m really trying to understand the psychology at play here.

Rational Thought on May 2, 2014 at 5:23 PM

I’m not a rich donor either, but we can all speculate. There’s the “hedging your bets” reason. Sure, if it’s Hillary vs. Bush, Hillary is the likely winner. But she could drop dead tomorrow (just like any mortal). Nothing is certain.

Also, it’s not a black & white win-lose situation. You have relationships, and kickbacks and cronyism to consider. The Bushes are actually better friends to the Clintons than to, say, Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. They’ll make deals with each other, no matter who wins. But Cruz is clearly a barbarian trying to upset the ancien régime. Why would they support him?

. The Bushes are actually better friends to the Clintons than to, say, Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. They’ll make deals with each other, no matter who wins. But Cruz is clearly a barbarian trying to upset the ancien régime. Why would they support him?

The National Constitution Center announced today that Hillary Clinton will be awarded the 2013 Liberty Medal in Philadelphia on September 10, almost a year to the day four Americans were allowed to die in Benghazi due to her own gross negligence.

Maybe for you hippies, the “establishment” means something, but I am totally lost when people start talking about The Establishment. So, who are these rich donors, lets not beat about the bush, I want names. I don’t know anyone who is a Republican who is interested in Chris Christie anymore. I think the media wants Jeb or Christie for our candidate. And if it’s Christie they have some cones and some lanes that are closed that will take up more media time than, say, the death of an American Ambassador.

Not being a rich donor myself, could someone explain to me the kind of satisfaction these fellas feel while burning through their money on a candidate who is 100% certain to lose? I’m really trying to understand the psychology at play here.

we have the Mosten couple in Beaumont that sacrifices huge dollars in Texas every cycle trying to get a dem elected guvna. He was part of the tobacco settlement and they are in for $10 million for abortion Barbie this year.

If his name wasn’t Boooooshhh then I might agree. But that brand ain’t hunting selling anymore.

BoxHead1 on May 2, 2014 at 5:27 PM

Republicans won a historic landslide in 2010 because they unequivocally opposed the mess that is Obamacare. 2 years later, their nominee was Mr. Romneycare. There is no stupidity that this party isnt capable of.

The only candidate who would make me vote third-party is Jeb Bush. I can live with Christie, I’d be fine with Rubio, I could even vote for Romney again. But another Bush would frankly be an embarassment that I couldn’t support.

10+ million conservatives will stay home or vote third party. You heard it here first.

I held my nose and voted fro McCain and Romney. With Jeb, how is he any different than Hillary on big government, amnesty, Common Core, etc., etc., etc.? Maybe he might appoint an occasional pro-life judge. That’s about it.

Any sources of wealth associated with the CoC who are pro-amnesty, pro-Common Core, and basically pro-crony capitalism in a big-government kind of way.

lineholder on May 2, 2014 at 6:06 PM

Big donors’ biggest nightmare is that a budget-cutting President who would cut federal spending might actually get elected. The biggest welfare queen in the country is Thomas Donohue, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

When Trey Gowdy gets done with Hillary, anyone with an R after their name will win in 2016. Benghazi will bring down the house of cards the donks have built. If they refuse to impeach Obama for the crimes he committed. (think Egypt and Obama’s relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood. Now know that protest in Cairo was about the blind sheik not some video. The excuse of the video was issued almost before the protest, thereby setting up the kidnapping of Chris Stevens which would have allowed Obama to negotiate his release with trading the sheik for Stevens. That is why Obama when to bed. He did not expect Stevens to be killed.) When all this is revealed and the donks do not find Obama guilty, it will end their chances for quite a while.

I just don’t see Clinton and Bush running against each other. I understand, I get it, politics is politics…it’s just business…but these families appear close in working together on internation issues. They’re old – do they really want to go to battle in the final stages of life, just to win a job that will age you quicker than any other? I just can’t see them going to battle.

If Bush is in, Hillary would be out. If Hillary is in, Bush would be out.

Have we gone so far down the rathole that we’d vote in yet another sorry Bushie? Don’t those rich repub fatcats ever, ever, EVER learn their lessons? McLame – loser. Romney — loser. Now they want someone from an entire loser family? Sheesh. I’m not voting in Jeb. AP is right. If JB gets the nom in 2016, the grassroots should split off and form their own party. I’m fed up with the establishment calling the shots.

They are adults. They know that EVERY administration does this. They saw the Bush administration do it and still reelected Bush. They saw the Clinton administration do it and still reelected Clinton. They saw the Reagan administration do it and reelected Reagan.

It will damage Hilary. It will not significantly damage Obama.

Fact is, the Benghazi incident was tragic but it was MINOR compared to what Americans have tolerated.

Look at it realistically. Have you heard of the Marine barracks bombing in Libya? That was under Reagan. Bad policy led to terrorists killing 241 servicemen.

Did Reagan get drummed out of office, despite the policy failures and the early attempts by the administration to blame Iran and Syria (when it was really a different Islamic group)?

No, he did not. He was criticized by the left, but the American public blamed the terrorists, and didn’t really care much about the spin.

Attacking Obama or Hilary on Benghazi is fine. Weakens Hilary. But you’re deluding yourself if you think the public in general – rather than your fellow conservatives who already disdain Obama – will care.

The public are more worried about Obama’s misteps on Ukraine, which actually affects them (as Russia is still seen as dangerous).

The reason why the rich wants Bush is because then they don’t have to work hard for their money. They will know they can get millions of $ just by giving money to Bush.

The rich knows if Cruz or Walker or Perry gets elected they will have to work hard for their money. They won’t have the government on their side against small business if Bush or Chris is not the Republican nominee.

I wonder how many of these establishment types have forgotten how badly GWB was beaten up over Iraq by the libs, and how little he actually did to fight back over the many slanders they said about him.

If I was one of these establishment type donors, I’d pick Christie in a heartbeat. He fights. Bush will sit all quiet like, and let the dems beat up on him daily.

Imagine if all the tea-party energy of the past five years ends up in another Bush coronation in 2016. I don’t know if the party would fracture. But it should.

The GOP should fall apart.
The flow chart:
Rich people who disagree with you may do something you disagree with therefore you should walk out on the party. (Because complete capitulation to the democrats and binge watching the Walking Dead is the only other option.)

Why don’t you ask why the tea party (or some other conservative entity) isn’t in a financial position to counter these ” Rich (nameless) GOP (Usual suspects) donors”? Especially after all this “energy”? Was this energy focused sensibly? Was it energy devoid of recourses? Why aren’t those who have had all this energy expended on them in a better position to push someone or something other than Bush or Christie?

Or are we just subjects to these rich guys every whim and it’s no ones fault but theirs?

Paul, Cruz, and Rubio are first term Senators with no significant administrative experience. They are not qualified to run for President and should be smart enough to realize it. It takes more than making speeches to run the government, as we are seeing to the country’s deep regret right now.

Paul will likely get in just to keep Dad’s old band together for the future, but he won’t win many more delegates than Dad in 2012.

How is it news that a big Florida donor brought into politics by GHWB would not commit to Christie over Bush?

Bush may not even get in, and Christie is smart enough to know that a failed effort would be worse than not running. But we have plenty of Governors and former Governors with the records to run on. I hope they get in the race in time to discourage Jeb.

Jeb will NEVER win the nomination, I’m not the least worried about that amnesty lover. As for Krispie, he’s a bit more dangerous. I pray day and night they find something tying him to bridge gate. Couldn’t happen to a nicer fellow.

These two tools have the special ability of making a McConnell/Boner ticket look good.

Christie is dead in the water, and not just because of the GWB scandal. The guy has some serious skeletons in the closet; it was why Mitt didn’t give him the Veep slot.

Bush is the ideal Establishment candidate, which is why Rubio will definitely sit it out should he run. (I’ve mentioned before that Rubio will definitely run in ’16 because he’s a guaranteed loser for the Senate, but I think Jeb would sate him with a cabinet position.)

Walker is the wild card. He has accomplishments which neither Christie nor Bush can hold a candle to, and he has some pull with the base. It’d be very interesting to see a Walker-Bush fight.

Dynastic politics are not the model of healthy democracies. They are a hallmark of corrupted democracies in name, oligarchies dominated by rent seeking corporatists in fact.

2016, with the very real possibility of a Bush-Clinton faceoff, may be referenced by future historians as the year American democracy went irretrievably down the same rathole India has occupied since its ‘independence’.

The rich think they can buy elections….the good news is, they can’t buy the voters!!! If Jab Bush is the nominee, Republicans lose BIG TIME!!!!

phoebe1 on May 3, 2014 at 9:03 AM

Agreed…the establishment can’t warm up to the notion that they can win the White House without the conservative vote. If Jeb Bush is the nominee, he’ll be lucky if half of registered Republicans show up to vote.

Rick Perry is the guy if the GOP wants to win the White House. If we ever are going to recover the economy, Perry with Walker or Jindal as VP is the best chance we have. How much more good does the guy have to do?