This week will be pretty bare-bones, and might be the final, depending on how much parity remains in the division after this week. I encourage everyone to read the data to see how we got here. I had more detailed notes in last weeks post (found at the bottom).

The long story short is that due to the paths ahead for the various teams (also see below) things are getting pretty locked up. The Flyers could still blow it, the Devils and Jackets will have to earn it, and Carolina could still steal it. The New Yorks are only technically still in, and the Caps and Pens would have to colossally fuck up not to make it. Florida is a threat.

Notable Highlights

Pittsburgh Took the top of the division this week, though have two more games played than Washington, who is only one point below.

The Rangers only got one point this week. RIP

Tampa hit three figures this week.

Despite the most common reply to these posts from Devils fans being "I don't even want to read this", they have held a WC spot well, and with the Jackets going on a winning streak they have managed to just keep ahead of "also on a winning streak" Florida.

Road ahead

This new section will look at the road ahead. It shows how many games we each have left, how many "4 point games" there are left, and how many uphill battles we have (games against teams that are higher ranked at the time of writing). I also added a bullshit category of "upsets needed/allowable". In a world where every team always beats the lower ranked team and always loses to a higher ranked team, what challenges to that norm will be required to make playoffs. Using "93" as the magic number here, and completely ignoring the wild card paths of the Atlantic teams. So, in short, you want to have a really big negative number in that slot, not a positive number.

Team

Current Points

Games Remaining

Divisional Games Remaining

Uphill Battles Remaining

Upsets needed/allowable

Penguins

84

12

7

0

-7

Washington

83

14

8

2

-7

Flyers

81

13

8

5

-2

Devils

78

13

6

9

+4

Columbus

77

13

3

5

+0

Carolina

71

14

7

8

+5

Islanders

70

13

7

10

+9

Rangers

67

13

10

13

+13

Florida

75

16

3Met/10Atl

7

+0

Since Florida is like the only other team to matter I did the too. Also WTF, they play Ottawa 3 times in the last 16 games, and Boston 4 times. The Atlantic is dumb.

The Devils have a very difficult path ahead to maintain their spot, needing ~8 wins, but only likely to get 4, thus requiring toppling at least 4 stronger teams. Considering Florida's path, if every team behaved as expected the WC spots would be Florida and Columbus if Devils don't keep winning games.

The Jackets need to get ~8 more wins, and are expected to get 8 more wins. With the fewest metro bouts remaining, this also gives less chance for something screwy to happen.

The Penguins (obviously) have the easiest path, needing five wins in a road that has no "by this over simplification" stronger teams in it.

To hit the projected playoff berth of 93 points, the Islanders can only afford one loss. The Rangers cannot afford a loss.

Comparison to other divisions

Below is a divisional look at the points spread between all teams, the point spread between the teams with two outliers removed, and then how many teams are one game away from a playoff position.

Division

Point Spread

Change from last week

Top/Bottom

Point Spread minus two outliers

Change

Outlier Teams Removed

Teams one game away from a playoff spot

Change

Metro

17 pts

+2

Pit84 Nyr67

13 pts

+1

Nyi70 Nyr67

0 teams

+0

Atlantic

44 pts

+1

Tbl100 Buf56

31 pts

-2

TBL100 Bos94

0 teams

+0

Central

30 pts

+1

Nsh98 Chi68

14 pts

+2

Nsh98 Chi68

teams

+0

Pacific

38 pts

-1

Vgk93 Ari55

22 pts

+0

Vgk93 Ari55

2 teams

+1

We are tightening up again at the top in this division. The two wildcard teams (CBJ, NJD) are a point apart, same number of games played, and are only a goal appoint in goal differential. The three at the top are only three points apart. The gap between the Jackets and Carolina (the leader of the bottom three teams) is now 6 points, or a weeks worth of games apart. Considering how streaky half the teams have been, it's probably premature to call it yet, but things are looking dark for those teams.

Looking at the Wild Card slot, Florida is chomping at the bit. They are one game away from bumping one of us, with three games in hand.

The Metro has captured 611 out of an available 1114 points, 55%

We took in three extra points from the league, and then gave three back out. Shared none

We only had 1 internal bouts this week.

Against non-metro teams we did OK this week, taking 25 of an available 44 points, 57%.