Headlines

John Podhoretz

The day polling died

You know what you call data like these?

Garbage.

The disparity in these numbers and their trends are so broad that even the cautionary method of adding them all together and averaging them out — best done by the Real Clear Politics “poll of polls” — makes little sense.

After an election season lasting 14 months, which saw Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich serially seduced into fantasizing they might win a GOP nomination they never ever would have, we go into the final month with no reason to trust that these surveys are capturing anything other than a close race.

Pollsters themselves, when challenged on their stats, say they’re just presenting a snapshot of public opinion. Fine, but these snapshots are wildly distorted.

The key hidden fact is that fewer than one in 10 respond to those who try to poll them.

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

I live in a swing district. Usually the political season around here is decorated with lawn signs for candidates from both political parties–often in neighboring yards on the same street. This display is usually followed by a close election.

This year, I haven’t seen a single yard sign for a Democrat candidate. Not one.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

JeremiahJohnson on October 9, 2012 at 2:51 PM

You too? The other night I identified as a 80 year old disabled asian veteran of the Korean War. The pollster clearly didn’t believe me but said that if that is how I identify then that’s what gets recorded.

I live in NoVa and get constant (3-4x day) polling calls from the Obama campaign. It’s gotten to the point where I like to have fun with them by scrambling my age/race/gender composition each time. Perhaps they’ll eventually wise up to the idea that it’s a little odd that a retired black woman, upper class asian 20-something, middle aged white guy, and lower class hispanic woman all share the same phone number. But until then, their poll results will remain fabulous.

Two weeks ago they were telling us Obama was winning in a landslide, it was over, etc. etc. because all the polls showed it to be so.

UnderstandingisPower on October 9, 2012 at 2:52 PM

What makes that even more idiotic is that the polls at the time were essentially showing a tie with a slight edge for Obama. But to hear the libs tell it, it was completely in the bag for Lord Jesus Barack.