Transaction Analysis

Ichiro Bound for the Big Apple UPDATED

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Some of you may not remember it, but Hulk Hogan was once widely respected (at least among the sorts of teenage boys who watched professional “wrestling”). He was what’s called a “face,” the good-guy character who you could wholeheartedly cheer for. So it was surprising that an aging, past-his-prime Hulk Hogan announced that he was going to be joining the “New World Order,” pro wrestling’s designated organization for villains, or “heels.”

Mariners fans may well be having similar feelings—just yesterday Ichiro was quite possibly the most most beloved player in the franchise's history, and tonight he's taking the field for the Yankees at the Mariners' own park. (Throwing salt in the wound, Ichiro requested a trade weeks ago.) And like Hulk Hogan, Ichiro is past his prime: His PECOTA-projected rest-of-season TAv is .263, which is a marked improvement on his dismal .235 so far but not enough to provide much above replacement value from an outfield corner, even if he plays his typical good defense.

Does that mean that Ichiro has no value to the Yankees? Not really; he can still hit a little, can probably play all three outfield positions (even if it has been a while since he’s played center field) long enough to spell someone for a few games, and has value off the bench as a late-game defensive replacement. He’s probably not a bad fit for a Yankees team that frankly doesn’t need a whole lot, but with Brett Gardner likely out for the rest of the season, he’s probably not the outfield bat Yankees fans were hoping for. —Colin Wyers

Acquired RHP D.J. Mitchell and RHP Danny Farquhar from the New York Yankees for OF-L Ichiro Suzuki and cash considerations. [7/23]

For Seattle, Ichiro wasn't bringing a lot to the table, and the value of a win in the standings is so low to the M's that it shouldn't bother them much if they can't find anything other than a replacement-level replacement. The Mariners don't save a lot of money in this deal; the Yankees will be paying $2 million for Ichiro, meaning the Mariners had to chip in roughly $4 million in the deal. More important for the Mariners is that they've saved face: They no longer have to worry about pressure to re-sign an aging Ichiro at the end of the season. Seattle can move forward and try to find players who will be on the next good Mariners team. —Colin Wyers

The Mariners didn't get much in return for Ichiro, but they did get two possible future pieces for a rapidly declining outfielder with no secondary skills.

Mitchell is the better prospect of the two arms. A 10th-round pick in 2008 who signed for an over-slot $400,000, Mitchell is a small, but athletic right-hander whose best attributes are his ability to throw strikes and keep the ball out of the air. His 88-91-mph fastball features heavy sink, and he uses a solid curveball against right-handed hitters with a diving change against left-handers. His future is as a middle reliever who gets groundballs.

That's also Farquhar's upside. He's become a journeyman this year, but that's because he's been just good enough to be the last guy on several teams' 40-man rosters. Selected 11 slots before Mitchell in the 2008 draft by the Blue Jays, Farquhar is fun to watch, as he varies his arm angles from three-quarters all the way down to sidearm on a 90-93-mph fastball with good sink. He's very inconsistent in terms of command and control, and he has a tendency to miss up when he's off, which has left many scouts seeing him as an up-and-down type of reliever.—Kevin Goldstein

On the flipside, there's a pretty substantial Japanese community in the Pacific Northwest and some people fly from Japan and/or watch Mariners games in Japan solely because of Ichiro. With the Mariners attendance already flagging, does Ichiro leaving really save the Mariners $2 million?

Good question -
They do get 3 near sellouts during the week because they traded on Monday and not the last day of a series which is the MLB norm ...maybe that (Seattle ballpark revenue) factored into the timing of the deal.

I really hope that Ichiro embraces the heel role, like Hulk Hogan. You know, coming out in a Mariners' uniform, pretending like the trade was just a rumor, then tearing it off to reveal a Yankees' uniform. We need more cartoon villainy in baseball.

Side note: The wrestling analogy at the top is also fitting because tonight is the 1,000th episode of WWE/WWF Raw.

Perhaps it is comforting to live in a world where the greatest modern Japanese baseball player is equivalent to a Chinese-American basketball sensation, at least to black helicopter pilots. Insane. 'Asian', really?

I am surprised that a 10 time Gold Glove winner Andruw Jones has to DH, while a much older outfielder Raul Ibanez, who has been a below average outfielder his entire career (right?), plays in the outfield instead. Has Jones's defensive skills declined that much compared to Ibanez's or is there some other mysterious Yankee reason why Ibanez is out there? (I understood why Jeter played short over A-Rod.) Now the Yankees acquire an outfielder whose top remaining skill is his defense - just so Jones doesn't have to go out there.

Based on baseball merits, I don't think there was any reason to keep Jeter at short instead of A-Rod. But could you imagine the Yankees moving "The Captain" off short to accommodate A-Rod? The indignity of it! Remember Jeter pitching a fit when Cashman discussed Jeter moving to center since he's an abysmal shortstop?

I suppose that is the generally accepted answer. However, those stories of the indignity of a star player getting moved to another position are probably blown out of proportion by beat writers trying to make a story. Derek Jeter is a professional. Perhaps, though, Torre felt it would play better on the teams' psyche because the new guy (Alex Rodriguez) was not disrupting the smooth operation of the existing dynasty.

Perhaps, Torre saw something in A-Rod that indicated he would be more likely to rapidly decline in range than Jeter. You gotta give Jeter credit that his game has deteriorated remarkably more slowly all around than Rodriguez's - or any of his contemporary shortstops'.

I just wish someone would honestly tell us. Perhaps, someone has already. What does Torre say in his biography (not that he would likely be 100% honest while A-Rod and Jeter are still playing)?

I think it was a cascading thing. Let's say you moved Jeter to CF. He won't stay there forever. Meanwhile, Rodriguez would probably stay at SS 3-4 years before having to move to 3B at some point. So basically, two players who you think are going to be on the team for 8-10 years are disrupted for a merely mild defensive improvement for 3-4 years. So, you preemptively move Rodriguez and, as a bonus, the position is less physically demanding so he's likely he'll remain healthier (though that part didn't happen)

I don't think there's anything mild about the difference between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter at shortstop. We don't have much data on A-Rod at short, but UZR loved him during his last two years with the Rangers (11.2 and 12.7 UZR/150) and UZR hates Jeter (only two seasons above 0 since 2002, and one of those was 0.9 UZR/150). Jeter has done even worse by FRAA (many years around -20), whereas A-Rod was basically an average shortstop according to FRAA. That's on the order of two wins per year.