Football

Rivalry Week and the end of the 2019 regular season have arrived, and the No. 11 Florida Gators are in a strange spot. While Florida is out of College Football Playoff consideration, what many consider to be the best two-loss team in the nation could also be on the outside looking in of the New Year’s Six bowl games. The Gators do not control their own destiny, but they do decide how they show up to play on Saturday against the hated in-state rival Florida State Seminoles.

Florida enters as a 17.5-point home favorite against a team it has only beaten twice in the last nine meetings. The Gators have not defeated the ‘Noles inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 2009. That could all change on Saturday night.

What will go down in the game? Let’s find out with plenty of information, notes, analysis and a game prediction for Florida vs. Florida State. Keep on reading for a full against-the-spread breakdown below.

Game notes

» Florida is 35-26-2 all-time against Florida State with a 20-12-1 edge in The Swamp. The ‘Noles have won seven of the last nine in the series, but the Gators have split the last 14 games with them, 7-7.» UF has not defeated FSU in The Swamp since 2009.» Florida is looking to beat both Miami and Florida State in the same season for the first time since 2008.» UF is attempting to finish a season undefeated in The Swamp for the first time since 2016, third time this decade and 14th time in program history.» The Gators began a season 6-0 for the first time since 2015. LSU ended both undefeated starts for UF in Tiger Stadium. Florida had won 10 straight games for the first time since 2011-12 and did so by a combined 339-96.» Through its first 11 games this season, UF is outscoring opponents 243-75 in the second half and 111-29 in the fourth quarter.» The Gators are second nationally in interceptions (15), fifth in sacks (3.45 per game), second in red-zone defense (.643) and seventh in scoring defense (14.2 points per game).» Florida is 4-3 against ranked opponents under Mullen (3-3 against top 10 teams), beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012. It is 14-2 against unranked teams under Mullen.» UF is looking for its first back-to-back 10-win seasons in a decade (2008-09) and can clinch that mark on Saturday.» Mullen would become only the third Florida coach to win 10+ games in back-to-back seasons (Steve Spurrier, Urban Meyer).» Under Mullen, the Gators are 13-0 when scoring first, 15-0 when leading after the third quarter, 14-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 5-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 15-0 when outrushing their opponent.» Florida has scored 96 offensive touchdowns in 24 games under Mullen. It scored 93 in 38 games from 2015-17.» Mullen is 4-2-1 against the spread as an underdog at UF.» Florida had scored 24+ points in 12 straight games for the first time since doing so in 24 consecutive contests from 2007-09. That streak fell two weeks ago, but the Gators have scored 24+ in nine of 11 games this season.» UF has scored in 396 consecutive games, an NCAA record.» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -18 | O/U: 55

Florida would be favored no matter where or when this game was played, but a night game in The Swamp should give the Gators an even greater advantage than they would have otherwise. Nevertheless, as the game creeps closer, I would not be surprised to see the line shift toward the ‘Noles. Depending how low it goes, it may make sense to pick Florida before kickoff. However, with it currently over three scores, it is tough to side with the Gators at such a large number.

Florida may not have much of a running game, but it should be able to find some holes against Florida State. And no matter how dominant the Gators defense plays on Saturday, ‘Noles star rusher Cam Akers will have his opportunities to go off. All it takes is one big run at the right time to ruin a cover, and if Florida is up big late in the game, that may just happen. It is going to be interesting to see how the Gators play rested coming off a pair of dominant SEC performances, but the atmosphere should helm them plenty. Defense should reign in this game, and I see it falling under.

2019 records: ATS picks 4-5-2 | O/U picks 7-4 | Overall: 11-9-2

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear traditional blue jerseys with blue pants and orange helmets.» The end zones will be painted blue with orange lettering for the first time. The Gators have been using orange end zones for the last two years and used unpainted end zones previously.

Senior Day Night

There will be 22 Florida football players taking part in Senior Day ahead of the Gators’ home finale. The ceremony will begin 15 minutes before the scheduled start time of the game. Below are the players who will be participating.

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