Saturday, November 27, 2010

"Gosh darn it, Sarah. You're just not ready to be the flippin' president of the United States." - Scott Ruppert, American Thinker

With those words, the Conservative Political Sphere proves it is far from the monolithic thinking group, many Liberal pundits like to portray. Nowhere is this more evident, than in the ongoing heated debate over whether or not former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, should seek the presidency in 2012. The American Thinker magazine posted an article, proclaiming with ardent fervor, the need for Palin to run. Ironically, there was another article, also at American Thinker, imploring, “Don’t Do It, Sarah.”

In the first article, Robert Eugene Simmons, Jr issues a very passionate rationale for urging Sarah Palin, not to merely run but to serve. Mr. Simmons Jr first lists the reasons why he believes Gov. Palin would not run. He goes into the details and painful sacrifices she would have to endure, should she be imbued with the inspiration, that she alone can save the Nation. Among the attributes cited are Palin’s love of country, from the heart speaking style, her belief in law before personal opinion and her uniquely singular ability to take on and dismantle the corrupt “Aristocracy” currently misbehaving in the nation’s capital. Whew! Not since George Washington has the nation had such a compelling, capable and yet humbly self-sacrificing leader offered to them.

Evidently, The American Thinker must be a very good place to work, since they allow for freedom of opinion and thought among their editorial staff. In the second posting, author Scott Ruppert lays out a compelling case for the Mama Grizzly not to run in 2012. He captures what many in the GOP and Conservative world have been feeling for some time now - basically Gov. Palin is too over exposed, in other words, Palin Fatigue:

“I genuinely liked Palin when she broke on the scene. She proved she had stamina, energy, charisma, and a message that resonated with conservatives. But somewhere along the line, Gov. Palin unknowingly traded being a serious politician for being a celebrity. Much like Barack Obama in his early days in the White House, she has been overexposed. From Fox News pundit, Dancing with the Stars proud mother, and Alaskan travel guide to touring with the Tea Party Express from state to state during the midterms, Ms. Palin has been omnipresent. That new face and air of common sense that I felt two years ago has gotten stale. The message still resonates, but I want it to come from somebody with a voice of depth not cultivated from briefing sheets and talking points.”

In addition, Mr. Ruppert also points to a casual quality in Palin, resulting in a lack of Presidential demeanor, as one of her stumbling blocks to Oval Office success:

“Maybe it's something as superficial as Sarah's whiny voice, the irritating momma grizzly shtick, or that "aw golly shucks" demeanor that makes her an improbable choice to be taken seriously behind the presidential seal while answering tough questions across the spectrum of global importance. Maybe it's the idea that I don't feel disrespectful at all calling her Sarah. This is tough to admit as someone who saw her as a breath of fresh air when John McCain initially brought her to the national spotlight in 2008.”

Now to be fair, both authors hold very positive feelings towards Gov. Palin, as I am sure the entire American Thinker staff does as well. But the valid questions and concerns that are currently held regarding a 2012 Sarah Palin presidential candidacy are based on more on political reality and strategy, rather than personal animus.

One of the many other concerns regarding Palin is her penchant for getting into public spats with the Media or the LSM – “lame stream media” as she likes to refer to them. While she has shown a deft use of her sharp sense of humor in the dispatching her detractors, such encounters do nothing to improve her image or burnish her credentials with Independent voters. Her reactions are one of the reasons she is viewed as the one of the most polarizing political figure in the nation. True, these encounters are very often driven by the LSM, they do raise eyebrows and questions even in conservative circles and question if they are of any real political value. They also highlight the tough time Palin would have as the GOP standard bearer in 2012 – she would be a distraction and on the defensive in all stories, allowing President Obama to articulate his “positive” case for re-election. Palin would have to “perfect” in order to have a shot a winning, as another American Thinker author points out.

Another sticking point with critics of the Mama Grizzly include her habitual use of GOP icon, Ronald Reagan, as her role model, inspiration and some would say, political shield. Her chronic use of Reagan as a political prop has lead Reagan admirers to be critical of Palin for not knowing facts about the former actor in defending her reality TV foray and citing his going to Eureka College in California, when it was actually in Illinois. By citing and incorporating Reagan, Palin can assure supporters of where she stands and how she’d govern, without getting into the troublesome tangle of spelling out actual policy positions. While Palin, to her credit, has taken on the issues of Inflation and Quantitative Easing 2, even that foray had a tepid response with some conservatives.

For the time being however, the Palin–Media Waltz will continue unabated for the next several weeks, while the Governor’s highly promoted book tour continues and her TLC reality show (yes, it is a reality show, one some conservatives didn’t care for) continues it’s run. While her book is anticipated to be a major success, complete with adoring fans braving the elements to obtain a signed copy, the TV show is another story. Week 2 of “Sarah Palin’s Alaska” saw its ratings gutted like a halibut on Episode 2, dropping 40% from the premiere week.

Perhaps, Americans are tiring of the 24/7 Palin inspired reality-dance-political-docu-drama being played out in their homes, every time the turn on the news, check the Internet or crack open a newspaper. If so, it may represent the biggest hurdle Palin will have to face in a quest for the White House, avoiding real or percieved gaffes and controversies, while getting people to take her seriously.

Then again, since Sarah Palin is no dummy, maybe she is content to be the most widely covered celebrity on the national scene.

Survey of 307 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 8-11, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 12-15, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Now that the 2010 midterms are over, the big question swirling around Palin is whether she will run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Given her high name recognition and broad popularity among Republicans, 80% of whom now view her favorably, she is clearly in a strong position to seek it. However, her negative image among the other party groups -- 81% of Democrats and 53% of independents view her unfavorably, while fewer than 4 in 10 view her favorably -- casts some doubt on her viability in the general election.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 65%, call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement in the latest poll, while 57% of Democrats are opponents of it. Independents are about evenly divided: 30% call themselves supporters and 25% say they are opponents.

Bottom Line

At the close of an eventful midterm election season that focused heavily on the Tea Party message and candidates, Americans remain broadly divided in their reactions to the Tea Party movement, while the majority now hold a negative image of Palin, one of the movement's most visible proponents. In the process, Palin maintained her already-positive image with Republicans while losing ground with independents and remaining widely unpopular with Democrats. The national Tea Party movement itself is also relatively polarizing, with about equal percentages of Americans calling themselves supporters and opponents.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Survey of 280 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 254 Republican primary voters was conducted October 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 2-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-20, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 521 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2010 are in square brackets.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Overall, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president.

Approve 47%

Disapprove 51%

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling each of the following issues. How about…The economy

Approve 41%

Disapprove 58%

Unemployment

Approve 43%

Disapprove 56%

Taxes

Approve 46%

Disapprove 53%

Federal budget deficit

Approve 36%

Disapprove 62%

Health care

Approve 48%

Disapprove 51%

Education

Approve 59%

Disapprove 38%

Immigration

Approve 43%

Disapprove 55%

Terrorism

Approve 57%

Disapprove 41%

The situation in Afghanistan

Approve 48%

Disapprove 50%

The situation in Iraq

Approve 54%

Disapprove 45%

Relationships with other countries

Approve 58%

Disapprove 41%

The environment

Approve 58%

Disapprove 39%

Energy

Approve 56%

Disapprove 40%

Gas prices

Approve 43%

Disapprove 52%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of...

Barack Obama

Very favorable 33%

Somewhat favorable 22%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 30%

Sarah Palin

Very favorable 18%

Somewhat favorable 28%

Somewhat unfavorable 15%

Very unfavorable 34%

Mitt Romney

Very favorable 12%

Somewhat favorable 34%

Somewhat unfavorable 20%

Very unfavorable 11%

Newt Gingrich

Very favorable 12%

Somewhat favorable 29%

Somewhat unfavorable 21%

Very unfavorable 20%

Tim Pawlenty

Very favorable 5%

Somewhat favorable 20%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 5%

Haley Barbour

Very favorable 6%

Somewhat favorable 16%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 6%

Mike Huckabee

Very favorable 16%

Somewhat favorable 34%

Somewhat unfavorable 16%

Very unfavorable 11%

John Thune

Very favorable 4%

Somewhat favorable 16%

Somewhat unfavorable 11%

Very unfavorable 5%

Mitch Daniels

Very favorable 3%

Somewhat favorable 18%

Somewhat unfavorable 13%

Very unfavorable 4%

Michelle Obama

Very favorable 35%

Somewhat favorable 33%

Somewhat unfavorable 15%

Very unfavorable 12%

Hillary Clinton

Very favorable 30%

Somewhat favorable 35%

Somewhat unfavorable 17%

Very unfavorable 16%

Bill Clinton

Very favorable 36%

Somewhat favorable 30%

Somewhat unfavorable 16%

Very unfavorable 17%

Joe Biden

Very favorable 18%

Somewhat favorable 29%

Somewhat unfavorable 21%

Very unfavorable 21%

George W. Bush

Very favorable 18%

Somewhat favorable 28%

Somewhat unfavorable 19%

Very unfavorable 34%

Mitch McConnell

Very favorable 7%

Somewhat favorable 27%

Somewhat unfavorable 15%

Very unfavorable 10%

John Boehner

Very favorable 9%

Somewhat favorable 25%

Somewhat unfavorable 15%

Very unfavorable 11%

The Democratic Party

Very favorable 20%

Somewhat favorable 29%

Somewhat unfavorable 23%

Very unfavorable 25%

The Republican Party

Very favorable 14%

Somewhat favorable 38%

Somewhat unfavorable 21%

Very unfavorable 23%

In general, do you support or oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?

Strongly support 17%

Somewhat support 20%

Somewhat oppose 13%

Strongly oppose 33%

The tax cuts that were passed in 2001 will expire this year if they are not continued. Which of the following best describes what you think Congress should do about the tax cuts?

Allow the tax cuts to expire for everyone 12%

Allow the tax cuts for people earning more than $250,000 to expire, but continue them for other people 32%

Continue the tax cuts for everyone 53%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

Very favorable 14%

Somewhat favorable 18%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 22%

From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say you generally agree or disagree on the Tea Party movement’s positions on political issues?

Strongly agree 16%

Somewhat agree 19%

Somewhat disagree 11%

Strongly disagree 19%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

Supporter 30%

Not a supporter 66%

(Among Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents) Thinking ahead to 2012, would you like to see Barack Obama face a serious challenge in the 2012 presidential primaries from another Democratic candidate, or not?

In terms of winning the 2012 nomination, the question is how Republican-leaning Americans view the contenders. Palin comes out on top. Among adults who identify themselves as Republicans or GOP-leaning independents, 79 percent view her favorably, and 17 percent unfavorably.

These findings worry many Republican officials. The poll suggests Palin might be able to win the nomination. But among independents — they could be the deciding factor in the general election — just 43 percent hold a favorable view of Palin, compared with 61 percent with a positive view of Obama.

Survey of 255 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 6.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 283 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 29 - April 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 582 Republican primary voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11-12, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 341 likely Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Survey of 317 California Republican primary voters was conducted October 29-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?

Approve 51% [51%] (44%)

Disapprove 38% [36%] (43%)

Among Republicans

Approve 79% [75%] (75%)

Disapprove 12% [13%] (14%)

Among Independents

Approve 56% [61%] (50%)

Disapprove 32% [29%] (40%)

Among Democrats

Approve 22% [24%] (18%)

Disapprove 68% [63%] (67%)

Among Men

Approve 58% [63%] (53%)

Disapprove 31% [27%] (36%)

Among Women

Approve 45% [40%] (36%)

Disapprove 45% [44%] (50%)

Among Whites

Approve 58% [58%] (54%)

Disapprove 33% [30%] (35%)

Among Blacks

Approve 14% [25%] (15%)

Disapprove 71% [64%] (77%)

Would you describe Governor Christie as being more of a bully or more of a leader?

Bully 42% [39%] (43%)

Leader 50% [51%] (44%)

Would you describe Governor Christie as being confrontational or honest and refreshing?

Confrontational 48% [46%] (52%)

Honest/Refreshing 43% [43%] (38%)

As Governor Christie closes out his first year as Governor, would you say it has been mainly a success or mainly a failure?

Success 52%

Failure 35%

What letter grade would you give him for the job he has been doing as governor; A, B, C, D, or F?

A: 17% [15%]

B: 31% [32%]

C: 20% [20%]

D: 16% [16%]

F: 15% [14%]

Among Republicans

A: 35% [28%]

B: 40% [43%]

C: 14% [14%]

D: 4% [6%]

F: 4% [6%]

Among Independents

A: 16% [15%]

B: 35% [39%]

C: 19% [21%]

D: 18% [14%]

F: 12% [9%]

Among Democrats

A: 2% [3%]

B: 19% [19%]

C: 25% [24%]

D: 24% [27%]

F: 28% [26%]

Among Men

A: 21% [21%]

B: 37% [39%]

C: 16% [18%]

D: 14% [12%]

F: 11% [9%]

Among Women

A: 14% [10%]

B: 26% [26%]

C: 23% [22%]

D: 17% [20%]

F: 18% [19%]

Among Whites

A: 20% [17%]

B: 35% [36%]

C: 17% [18%]

D: 14% [16%]

F: 13% [10%]

Among Blacks

A: 0% [2%]

B: 13% [21%]

C: 34% [24%]

D: 22% [24%]

F: 29% [30%]

Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?

Yes 24%

No 61%

Among Republicans

Yes 45%

No 36%

Among Independents

Yes 24%

No 61%

Among Democrats

Yes 5%

No 87%

Do you think Chris Christie will run for President in 2012 or not?

Yes, will run 21%

No, will not run 60%

Do you think the Christie-for-President talk represents a serious political movement or just political gossip?

Serious political movement 25%

Political gossip 67%

As you may know, Chris Christie traveled to other states to campaign for Republican candidates in the 2010 elections. Does this make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie, or doesn't it make a difference?

More favorably 16%

Less favorably 21%

Doesn't make a difference 62%

Among Republicans

More favorably 34%

Less favorably 6%

Doesn't make a difference 58%

Among Independents

More favorably 11%

Less favorably 20%

Doesn't make a difference 69%

Among Democrats

More favorably 3%

Less favorably 37%

Doesn't make a difference 60%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?

Approve 31%

Disapprove 18%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

Approve 43% (40%)

Disapprove 44% (47%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?

Approve 38% (38%)

Disapprove 41% (43%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Approve 46% [47%] (50%)

Disapprove 50% [47%] (46%)

Among Republicans

Approve 12% [14%] (12%)

Disapprove 84% [80%] (85%)

Among Independents

Approve 42% [41%] (45%)

Disapprove 55% [53%] (52%)

Among Democrats

Approve 85% [80%] (79%)

Disapprove 13% [16%] (15%)

Among Men

Approve 41% [40%] (44%)

Disapprove 56% [56%] (51%)

Among Women

Approve 51% [53%] (54%)

Disapprove 45% [40%] (41%)

Among Whites

Approve 36% [38%] (41%)

Disapprove 61% [57%] (56%)

Among Blacks

Approve 92% [86%] (80%)

Disapprove 3% [7%] (14%)

Survey of 1,362 New Jersey voters was conducted November 3-8, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 9-17, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 10-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

“The people who got slapped the hardest in this election — besides Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama — are Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin,” he said. “Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin are responsible for the fact that the Senate did not go Republican. They’re the ones who are responsible for Christine O’Donnell. They’re the ones who are responsible for Joe Miller in Alaska. They’re the ones who are responsible for Ken Buck in Colorado. They’re the ones who are responsible for Sharron Angle in Nevada.”

Then Kondracke discussed whether Palin could be the 2012 nominee: "She's a joke even within her own party," Kondracke said. "The idea that she would be the presidential nominee is unthinkable."

Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, then said: "Think of Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint as the new faces of the Republican Party. It's a nightmare for the party, but I think the adults will have a hard time talking about them with anything but complete and utter respect."

If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today would you vote for Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich or Mitch Daniels?

Mitt Romney 20%

Mike Huckabee 19%

Sarah Palin 19%

Newt Gingrich 13%

Tim Pawlenty 6%

Ron Paul 5%

Mitch Daniels 3%

Some other candidate 7%

Not sure 8%

Suppose some of the bigger names decided not to run for President in 2012 and you had a choice between Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Jim DeMint and Haley Barbour…for whom would you vote?

Chris Christie 22%

Ron Paul 14%

Tim Pawlenty 9%

Haley Barbour 8%

Jim DeMint 7%

John Thune 3%

Mike Pence 3%

Mitch Daniels 2%

Some other candidate 13%

Not sure 19%

Suppose Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?

Very Likely 12%

Somewhat Likely 16%

Not Very Likely 40%

Not At All Likely 24%

Suppose Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?

Very Likely 17%

Somewhat Likely 14%

Not Very Likely 31%

Not At All Likely 32%

Suppose Mike Huckabee won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?

Very Likely 11%

Somewhat Likely 13%

Not Very Likely 36%

Not At All Likely 34%

Suppose Newt Gingrich won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?

Very Likely 13%

Somewhat Likely 14%

Not Very Likely 33%

Not At All Likely 34%

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Sarah Palin

Very favorable 50%

Somewhat favorable 32%

Somewhat unfavorable 9%

Very unfavorable 8%

Mitt Romney

Very favorable 37%

Somewhat favorable 42%

Somewhat unfavorable 13%

Very unfavorable 4%

Mike Huckabee

Very favorable 43%

Somewhat favorable 36%

Somewhat unfavorable 12%

Very unfavorable 5%

Newt Gingrich

Very favorable 37%

Somewhat favorable 35%

Somewhat unfavorable 16%

Very unfavorable 7%

Haley Barbour

Very favorable 17%

Somewhat favorable 31%

Somewhat unfavorable 19%

Very unfavorable 7%

Mitch Daniels

Very favorable 6%

Somewhat favorable 30%

Somewhat unfavorable 18%

Very unfavorable 7%

Jim DeMint

Very favorable 18%

Somewhat favorable 27%

Somewhat unfavorable 17%

Very unfavorable 9%

Scott Brown

Very favorable 10%

Somewhat favorable 27%

Somewhat unfavorable 27%

Very unfavorable 11%

Chris Christie

Very favorable 35%

Somewhat favorable 18%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 10%

Michele Bachmann

Very favorable 26%

Somewhat favorable 21%

Somewhat unfavorable 17%

Very unfavorable 10%

Tim Pawlenty

Very favorable 14%

Somewhat favorable 30%

Somewhat unfavorable 17%

Very unfavorable 7%

Mike Pence

Very favorable 11%

Somewhat favorable 22%

Somewhat unfavorable 18%

Very unfavorable 7%

John Thune

Very favorable 6%

Somewhat favorable 20%

Somewhat unfavorable 20%

Very unfavorable 8%

Marco Rubio

Very favorable 29%

Somewhat favorable 23%

Somewhat unfavorable 14%

Very unfavorable 7%

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

Favorable 79%

Unfavorable 9%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

Strongly approve 3%

Somewhat approve 4%

Somewhat disapprove 9%

Strongly disapprove 84%

National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 1, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

(IF DEMOCRAT) Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?

Survey of 1,006 adults, including 921 registered voters, was conducted October 27-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points; among the subsample of 500 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, +/- 4.5 percentage points; among the subsample of 453 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1-2, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-3, 2009 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2009 are in curly brackets.

American voters in pivotal Battleground States redrew the electoral road map President Obama followed to victory in 2008, by electing Republicans in six Governorships in key swing states across the country yesterday. Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania are making Obama sing the blues, as all their Governor’s Mansions turned red, and marking dangerous ground the President must traverse in 2012. Losing control of these key states combined with negative voter opinion, point to a rocky road Obama needs to travel, if he wants to renew his lease at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Results for Minnesota and Connecticut are still incomplete, and could provide the GOP with two more victories, once the final votes are counted and confirmed. Earlier today, the tight Florida Governor’s race ended, when Alex Sink conceded the race to Republican challenger, Rick Scott. Nevada, which Obama won in 2008, retained the Governorship for the Republicans, by electing Ryan Sandoval.

As outlined in an earlier article, Obama is seeing his path to an Electoral College victory become increasingly difficult. States which turned red yesterday account for 80 Electoral votes. Additional red states Obama won in 2008 but will likely flip back to the GOP are Florida, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, worth 66 EVs.

Exit polling data from yesterday indicate Obama has a serious problem with key voting groups he cobbled together in 2008 to win the White House. A week after he took office, Obama’s overall approval rating was 66% - a reflection of the good will from his historic victory as the nations first African-American President. Now however, his approval is 45% overall, with only 40% of Independent voters expressing approving, down from 62% in January 2009. The data also suggests voters are not merely just concerned with the economy, but generally disapprove of Obama’s policies.

The President does have the time and the ability to improve his fortunes, however. He still retains fairly high personal approval ratings. Should he move towards the center, working with the newly elected Republican House Majority in solving the nations problems, he could see his situation improve.

At this afternoon's press conference, he sounded reflective and signaled he was willing to work with the GOP. However, the issues he mostly focused on for compromise were centered around Energy policy. He gave no indication of going along with a major revision to his Health Care bill, suggesting he would merely consider modifications from the GOP. Obama also seemed willing to discuss ideas on how to get America's unemployed working, but offered no specifics, again indicating he was open to ideas.

Overall, he seemed pensive and bit contrite, but would not acknowledge Americans disagreed with him on policy, only that they were misinterpreting his intentions. There was no real indication of any movement towards the center. It may be too early to see a shift, but in light of yesterday's results, should he remain to the left of the American voter, his road to re-election will continue a difficult one.