Battle for the House: 10 FEC reports to watch

The election is still over a year away. Many races don’t even have candidates yet. But the battle for the House is already well underway — and smart incumbents have already started stockpiling cash.

For the cast of 87 GOP freshmen, the Federal Election Commission reports that are due over the next week will provide clues about their re-election prospects. For Democrats, their filings will tell whether momentum is building in their bid to take back the House.

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POLITICO 44

Here are 10 members whose fundraising reports are worth watching.

Allen West (R-Fla.)

The Florida Republican was once the tea party’s hero, but this summer he clashed with grassroots conservatives over his vote to raise the nation’s debt ceiling. West’s third-quarter report will provide the most tangible evidence into how severe the backlash surrounding his vote really was. Few expect him to face a serious primary, but a significant fundraising drop-off for West, one of the most prolific cash-generators in the county, would indicate that some of the conservative luster has worn.

Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.)

It’s been a bumpy first year in office for Gosar, a former dentist who has suffered a rash of staffing woes. Now the question is whether the scrutiny is impacting his fundraising. Gosar’s fundraising so far has been subpar: Through June, he raised just $288,000. Last quarter, he was outraised by his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s running in a rematch. Gosar will need the cash: Under a redistricting draft plan released this week, his district is redrawn in a way that diminishes his reelection prospects.

David Rivera (R-Fla.)

The multiple investigations into Rivera’s personal finances have taken a toll on his fundraising. Through June, Rivera had raised just $122,000, and with an ethical cloud hanging over the Florida Republican’s head there is little incentive for party leadership or the National Republican Congressional Committee to help him fill his coffers. Rivera has yet to draw a serious primary opponent, but another poor fundraising quarter for the first-termer could serve as an invitation for South Florida Republicans to jump in the race.

Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.)

Giffords’s aides have revealed little about her future plans since she was nearly killed in a January assassination attempt. But she set off a round of speculation this summer when she appeared on the House floor to cast her vote to raise the nation’s debt ceiling – an emotional event that left some wondering whether she was kicking off her reelection bid or even launching a Senate campaign. Giffords has raised nearly $700,000 this year with the help of party leaders, and her third-quarter report should provide fresh clues as to what political preparations — if any — her team is making.

Fred Upton (R-Mich.)

Upton, the powerful House Energy and Commerce committee chairman, won just 57 percent of the vote in last year’s primary, when he faced an underfunded tea party-aligned opponent. The moderate Michigan Republican could be targeted by conservatives again if the supercommittee on which he serves doesn’t cut federal spending in a way that pleases them. Upton’s fundraising report will reveal how much he’s raised since being named to the committee this summer, and will indicate whether his political operation is prepping for a primary battle.

Allen West is a cautionary tale to all African-Americans who, when unable to get elected via the usual route, throw their lot with the Teabaggers. West apparently forgot Georgia's storied pre-Civil Rights Act past and the aging Teabagger electorate that's still nostalgic for those "good-ole" Jim Crow days, "when Negroes wuz good and knew they' place."

This article displays the ugly new reality of American politics: instead of talking about the ideology & principles of these candidates, we're only talking about how much money they raised & whether or not they'll be able to match their opponent's spending.

King is a conservative heartthrob, but he’s never faced a race like this one. His opponent: Christie Vilsack, who during her eight years as Iowa first lady defined herself as one of the most influential political players in the state. Vilsack has tapped into a nationwide fundraising base, and announced this week that she had raised over $750,000 over the course of the year, including around $330,000 in the third quarter. King, who had raised a relatively meager $220,000 through June, needs to show that his conservative support can translate to cash.

I'd pay cash money to see this weasel of a human being CRUSHED by Mrs. Vilsack. It would be so sweet!

You read the title and you would think that the House is up for grabs, hardly. A primary battle is not going to flip the House. Besides as long as the Dems are stupid enough to keep Nancy Pelosi around the GOP will always have a built in ad proving who will be back in charge if they don't vote GOP. her name alone will cost the Dems 10 seats Blue Dogs could win.

The FEC reports have nothing to do with votes. One doesn't have to look at the story to know the bent of this article. The author thinks that because of some random, arbritrary numbers the Republicans have potential issues in 2012. Guess what all Republicans are running against Obama and he is a loser. Take that into account.................

How honest is reel mucus? Not very. First, why is Georgia referenced in the comment? West is in Florida, genius. Second, why have Tea Party listed as the party affiliation? Obviously to post inane comments to portray the Tea Party as morons.

Cynical and transparent does not begin to describe it. Mr. Ploufe, is that you?

How honest is reel mucus? Not very. First, why is Georgia referenced in the comment? West is in Florida, genius. Second, why have Tea Party listed as the party affiliation? Obviously to post inane comments to portray the Tea Party as morons.

Cynical and transparent does not begin to describe it. Mr. Ploufe, is that you?

How honest is reel mucus? Not very. First, why is Georgia referenced in the comment? West is in Florida, genius. Second, why have Tea Party listed as the party affiliation? Obviously to post inane comments to portray the Tea Party as morons.

Cynical and transparent does not begin to describe it. Mr. Ploufe, is that you?

How honest is reel mucus? Not very. First, why is Georgia referenced in the comment? West is in Florida, genius. Second, why have Tea Party listed as the party affiliation? Obviously to post inane comments to portray the Tea Party as morons.

Cynical and transparent does not begin to describe it. Mr. Ploufe, is that you?

Oh, I get it. Sort of how it would have been nice to know where Obama's funding came from????

Now let me think...Wasn't that BEFORE Citizens United?

If you'd like to know who contributed to President Obama in 2008, look it up. Try OpenSecrets.org.

Try doing that this election cycle. Was that commercial attacking the incumbent senator who voted for Dodds-Frank paid for by Goldman Sachs? How about the commercial against the congresswoman who vants to prevent a repeat of the BP Oil Spill? Paid for by Exxon?

Corporations now have more constitutional rights than people. And, no, corporations are not people. If the people who make up a corporation want to make individual campaign contributions, they should be free to do so.