Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the text of the U.S.
Seasonal Drought Outlook as released by the National Weather
Service in Camp Springs, Maryland:

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Dryness and drought, exacerbated by
above-normal temperatures, have been increasing both in extent
and intensity across much of the central and northern U.S. Based
upon the July 24 U.S. Drought Monitor, almost 64 percent of the
contiguous U.S. was in drought (D1-D4), the highest such value
for the U.S. Drought Monitor since its inception in 2000. The
last time the lower 48 States had a comparable area of drought
(based upon the monthly Palmer Drought Index) was in 1956,
according to NCDC. The drought and heat arrived at a critical
time for Midwestern agriculture, especially corn. The
combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality
and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 48 percent of
the corn and 37 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very
poor as of July 29 by NASS/USDA. Over half the corn was
adversely rated in 8 major corn-producing states, including 83,
79, 71, and 69 percent in Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, and
Indiana, respectively. Similarly, the soybean crop rated poor to
very poor exceeded 50 percent in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois,
Indiana, and Kentucky. Unfortunately, drought is expected to
develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and
temperatures are likely to average above normal. With dry
weather expected in the northern Plains the next few weeks and
most locations already abnormally dry, D1 development was added
in eastern Montana and North Dakota. Some widely-scattered
relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized
thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of
the area is not expected. In the Southeast, recent widespread
thunderstorm activity has somewhat eased drought there. The 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal rainfall, August-October is a climatologically wet period in southern Texas, and
the 3-month outlook favors increased odds for above normal
precipitation along the central Gulf. Therefore, improvement to
some improvement is expected across the Deep South, from
southern Texas eastward to South Carolina. In New England and
the mid-Atlantic, recent scattered thunderstorms have provided
relief to some locations from abnormal dryness and moderate
drought, but where the rains missed, D0 and D1 have persisted or
slightly expanded. With wet weather expected during the next few
weeks, some improvement is expected from the eastern Ohio Valley
into the Northeast. Across the Southwest, the odds favor an
active (wet) southwest monsoon in both the 1- and 3-month
precipitation outlooks. As a result, improvement is anticipated
across much of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado
as the summer monsoon continues, with some improvement in other
parts of the region. Drought persistence is the best bet across
the remaining portions of the Western U.S. since late summer and
early fall are typically dry. In Hawaii, subnormal seasonal
rainfall is expected which should maintain drought on the
leeward (west) sides while expanding it into the windward (east)
sides. Lastly, an El Niño Watch continues, with the forecaster
consensus reflecting increased chances of an El Niño beginning
in July-September.

Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Drought Outlook (USDO) included the
official CPC temperature and precipitation outlooks for August
2012 and the long lead forecast for August through October 2012,
various medium- and short-range forecasts and models such as the
6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts, the most recent 384-hour GFS
total precipitation amounts, the soil moisture tools based on
the Constructed Analog on Soil (CAS) moisture, the Climate
Forecast System (CFS, versions 1 and 2), the four-month Palmer
drought termination and amelioration probabilities, climatology,
and initial conditions.

After receiving heavy to excessive rains in May from Tropical
Storm Beryl and from Tropical Storm Debby in June, drought was
alleviated from most of Florida and southeastern Georgia by late
June. But subnormal rainfall returned to most of Florida,
eastern Georgia, and parts of Alabama during July. In the
remainder of the Southeast, however, July was generally wet with
temperatures close to normal, and some drought improvement has
occurred. The extended-range forecasts (6-10 day and 8-14 day)
and 384-hour GFS anticipate elevated odds of above normal median
rainfall in most of the Southeast. Though CPC’s updated August
outlook calls for Equal Chances (EC) of below-, near-, and
above-median precipitation across much of the Southeast (except
for below normal odds for northern Arkansas and western
Tennessee), the seasonal outlook for August-October, as well as
the CFSv2 model, favors wetter-than-median conditions over the
central Gulf Coast region. In addition, the odds for at least
some improvement are elevated closer to the coast which is often
affected by sea-breeze induced thunderstorms and the “wild card
factor” - tropical systems - where ASO are usually the peak
months. In addition, it is difficult to sustain a drought in an
area where the normal annual precipitation is 40 to 50 inches
(e.g. Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee) and evenly distributed
per month. Monthly and seasonal temperature outlooks also favor
above-normal temperatures mainly in northern regions, with
decreasing odds as one heads south and east to the Gulf and
Atlantic. Therefore, drought should persist or show some
improvement in the north, and show improvement in the south.
Note that improvement in the south does not mean elimination of
drought as this area has accumulated long-term deficits that
would be difficult to eradicate by the end of October.
Forecast confidence for the Southeast (including lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys) is moderate.

During the past 2 weeks, moderate to heavy rains (2-5 inches) in
the Northeast and mid-Atlantic and less oppressive temperatures
have somewhat eased abnormal dryness and drought in the
Northeast. Unfortunately, some areas (e.g. Delmarva Peninsula,
central and southern Virginia, and Maine) saw no improvement or
deteriorated as significant precipitation bypassed them.
Although the short and medium-term models predict some moderate
to heavy rain in the mid-Atlantic and New England (although
above normal temperatures), there are no clear indications in
the August and ASO precipitation outlooks for dry or wet odds
(equal chances). But since most of the D0 and D1 have recently
developed in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic (short-term), a
brief period of wet weather could alleviate the accumulated
deficiencies (2 to 4 inches at 30- and 60-days) - hence the Some
Improvement label. Farther west, recent heavy rains (3 to 7
inches), expected short-term wetness, and an updated August
precipitation outlook of EC (instead of odds for dryness)
indicates some possible improvement of drought in the eastern
Ohio Valley and western New England instead of development.
Forecast confidence for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions
is moderate.

The critical growing month of July became the third consecutive
month with unseasonable warmth and dryness across much of the
Nation’s midsection, expanding and intensifying the Midwestern
drought while adversely impacting agriculture. July deficits
ranged between 3 to 6 inches from the central Great Plains to
the eastern Ohio Valley. Temperatures averaged at least 6
degrees F above normal across much of the Midwest and central
Plains, with triple-digit highs common during the month. The 8-14 day, updated August, and ASO Outlooks call for enhanced
chances of below-median rainfall and above-normal temperatures
for most of the region. An exception is the upper Midwest which
may see decent rains in the short-term. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils
and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread
development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It
would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide
significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do
not forecast this. Accordingly, drought is maintained across the
Midwest and expanded northwest to encompass North Dakota and
eastern Montana. In the eastern Ohio Valley (see Northeast and
mid-Atlantic discussion), some improvement is possible.
Forecast confidence for the Midwest (including Ohio Valley) is
moderate.

Similar to the Midwest, July brought subnormal rainfall and
above normal temperatures to most of the Plains. Only portions
of southern Texas, southeastern New Mexico, northeastern
Colorado, eastern Montana, and parts of the Dakotas reported
surplus July precipitation. Monthly temperatures averaged 4 to 8
degrees F above normal. During the last 90 days, most of the
central Plains accumulated deficits of 4 to 8 inches, with 8 to
12 inch shortages in eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.
For the first 5-days of this outlook, an upper-air ridge will
continue to steer moisture and storms around its periphery,
resulting in little to no rainfall for the southern Plains.
Fortunately, some rain is expected from North Dakota southward
into Nebraska as southwestern monsoonal moisture interacts with
a cold front. Unfortunately, the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
precipitation forecasts maintain unfavorable odds for rainfall
in the southern half of the Great Plains. CPCs updated 30-day
outlook favors enhanced odds for subnormal precipitation in the
central Great Plains, with equal chances elsewhere. CPCs 90-day
precipitation outlook has no odds either way (equal chances).
Climatologically, the northern and southern Plains reach their
normal wet time of the year during the late spring and early
summer, so by the fall their precipitation is usually waning.
Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August,
and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much
of the Plains already in drought and getting worse, above normal
temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and
30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible
development in the northern Plains.
Forecast confidence for the Plains is moderate.

In the Southwest and southern High Plains, the June-September
period is critical for producing monsoonal rains. In parts of
Arizona, New Mexico, western Texas, and eastern Colorado, a
large majority of its normal annual precipitation occurs during
these 4 months. Therefore, a forecast for above normal monthly
and seasonal precipitation during this period may bring drought-relieving rains. Since July 1, the southwest monsoon has been
generous across much of the Southwest, with most areas also
reporting surpluses out to 30-days, and some portions (most of
Arizona and southeast California) out to 60 and 90 days. CPCs
precipitation outlook suite for the extended-, monthly-, and
seasonal ranges (including the seasonal CFSv2 forecast) all
favor near- to above-median rainfall across this region. With
most tools and models in agreement, improvement is forecast for
Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado, with some
improvement for the remainder of the Southwest.
Forecast confidence for the Southwest is moderate to high.

Widespread moderate to severe drought covers the rest of the
western U.S. except for the Northwest. While the southwestern
monsoon can bring moisture throughout the Four Corners States,
southeastern California, and southern Nevada, the summer is
climatologically dry across the Great Basin, the rest of
California, and the Northwest. In addition, persistent wet and
cool weather in the Northwest during the past several months has
accumulated surpluses at 2 to 6 months out, making it difficult
for drought to develop anytime soon. CPCs extended range
forecasts show near normal probabilities at 6-10 days, and tilt
toward subnormal precipitation at 8-14 days. The monthly and
seasonal outlooks favor slightly enhanced odds of below-median
precipitation over the Northwest, and equal chances in the Great
Basin and northern Rockies. Therefore the seasonal drought
forecast calls for the existing drought to continue without any
areas of improvement or new development.
Forecast confidence for the West is moderate to high.

The summer months are climatologically dry in Hawaii, but as the
fall commences rainfall normally increases. The latest Hawaiian
monthly and seasonal outlooks (from dynamical models) slightly
tilt toward subnormal rainfall. Therefore, drought is expected
to persist in existing areas (mainly leeward sides), and slowly
spread eastward into the windward sides, especially later in the
period. The exception is Kauai where D1 covers the eastern
portion, with drought development expected to push westward.
Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate to high.