India's cotton exports will be down 30%

BillHelming

Livestock:

Daily Dressed Beef Outlook

12/22/00 am: Cutouts closed up 60 cents to 1.14 dlrs Thursday night. Trading today will be slow, offerings and sales light. Packers still have margin due to the continued increase in cutout values. But, slaughter for the week will be about equal to last week's 651,000. Due to tight feedlot supply of market ready cattle and the Monday holiday, Saturday slaughter is expected to be 30,000 or less. Packers paid steady prices for cattle Thursday, so should maintain a good margin next week. Prices and cutouts today will be steady/up. Sltr Est: 126,000

Daily Fed Cattle Outlook

12/22/00 am: Sales were moderate Thursday at steady prices. Even though showlists are not cleaned up, sales today will likely be light. Bids will be steady but selling interest will be light. Packers likely do not need many more, since needs will be smaller next week as well as having contract and formula cattle to fill remaining needs. And, sellers would like to give cattle more time to recover from effects of past weather but snow is forecast for this weekend as well as cold. Cornbelt: 76-77/121-123 Ks: 76-77.50 Tx: 76-77.50

Daily Feeder Cattle Outlook

12/22/am: Prices for replacement feeder cattle today will be only lightly tested if tested at all. Buying interest will be light as well as selling interest. Buyers won't necessarily want to be shipping and handling new cattle with more stormy weather in the forecast. And, this close to the holiday, rearranging work schedules to handle minimum basic chores will be the main priority. Both buying and selling interest will pick up in January. Plains: 89-98 Cornbelt: 89-99

Daily Hogs/Pork Outlook

12/22/00 am: Cash hog prices this morning will be weak to 75 cents lower. For the week, cash hog prices will average about 2 dlrs lower live and 3 dlrs lower carcass than last week. Cutout for the week will average about 2 dlrs lower. Packers' margin is estimated about breakeven. In addition to very little incentive from margin to maintain slaughter level, pork sales are light. Today's pork trade will be slow, but cutout is expected steady/higher. Sltr Est: 360,000 WI Carc: 43.50-57.75 WT: 37.50-38.50 EI Carc: 44-55 ET: 37-37.50

Grain:

Daily Corn Outlook

12/22/00 am: Mar up 1. Markets close at noon, Chicago time today, and a quiet trade usually results. Cold weather supports the interior basis and gulf basis levels are supported by the tow restrictions. If the Illinois River is closed due to ice, the Ohio River basis goes up. South Korea bought 52,000 tonnes of Chinese corn for February/early March from Korean trader Daewoo. China reported they shipped 830,000 tonnes of corn for export in November. Jan-Nov 2000, exports were 9.47 mil tonnes, up 222 pct over last year. One key to markets will be whether or not China will be willing to subsidize exports at near 1 dlr/bu and when they enter the WTO. The Philippines will hold a tender in January to buy 50,000 tonnes of white corn.

Daily Soybean Outlook

12/22/00 am: Mar up 2: when it gets bitterly cold, many things slow down, including transportation and soybean crush. In the past, crush has fallen up to 10 pct as a result of the cold. The meal basis was 1 dlr to option price on the January on the cold weather. Spot wheat midds, a 16 pct protein substitute feed, were up to over 80.00 dlrs per ton in Kansas City. Taiwan bought 56,000 tonnes of U.S. beans. South Korea tenders next week for 28,000 tonnes of edible soybeans. South Korea bought 55,000 tonnes of South American meal for April. China reported their soybean exports for November at 779,642 tonnes, and Jan-Nov reached 9.69 mil tonnes, up 172 pct over 1999. Palm oil futures were up slightly overnight. Look for census crush next week at 143 mil bu, meal stocks down and steady oil stocks.

Daily Wheat Outlook

12/22/00 am: Mar up 1: Dreyfus bought at least 1,000, 3.30 calls in Kansas City on Thursday, which supported prices. It is bitterly cold in the Plains, with some reports of blowing soils due to high winds. Forecasts, as usual differ on the amount of snow in the Western Plains. The 6-10 outlook remains cold, but also projects above normal moisture for the Southern Plains. South Korea bought 20,200 tonnes of U.S. wheat. CCC bought 54,050 tonnes of wheat for donation to Bangladesh. China imported 20,000 tonnes of wheat in November and 870,000 Jan-Nov, up 133 pct over 1999. The EU will sell 250,000 tonnes of intervention wheat into domestic markets in France to slow prices from rising. A few weeks ago, they withdrew plans to sell 500,000 tonnes after French farmers protested.

Daily Cotton Outlook

12/22/00 am: Mar up 25: look for a relatively quiet trade today before the Christmas holidays. Prices remain in an uptrend, but March futures are closer to a breakdown on the moving averages. If the moving averages turn down, look for increased fund selling short run but important reports are not far ahead on January 11. The talk of slowing economic indications and lower petroleum prices have been a background negative to cotton prices recently. India's textile commissioner said that he expected their exports to be down 30 pct due to lower mill demand and higher international prices. Exports are expected up 54 pct, but only 100,000 Indian bales.

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