hi, I am new here and in aud/usd pair. I see tomorrow a major news about Unemployment Rate at GMT 0130. The previous was 71.5k and forecast is -6.5k, will that make AUD/USD to touch 1.06 ? Please let me know you Guru's opinion.

April is one of the best month for AudUsd!The surprising data on the Chinese import in March (rising 14.1%), sprouts wings to AudUsd today. The rise above 1.05 actually stops the correction started in late March and seems to favor a new boost towards the upper side of the 1.06 – 1.01 range, that has been characterizing AudUsd for more than one year. This trend is almost foregone due to the favorable seasonality that rewards the Australian dollar in the month of April. Over the past 12 years, only in 2004 AudUsd fell in the fourth month of the year. But be careful because this is a prelude to a much more unfavorable May, as the last 10 years have witnessed a fall in the Aussie in 80% of cases.

AudUsd came back pretty quickly to 1.05, confirming once again the tightness of the trading range that is enclosing the Aussie from August 2012. At this point, in order to bet on a continuation of the side trend, all we have to do is to enter short on AudUsd to point to the return at the bottom of the range, i.e. 1.0150. To support this view, we can also quote the weakness of the gold. The Aussie has always been very sensitive to the price of gold and the heavy sell-off on Friday of the precious metal has led to the break of important long-term supports as 1,525$; these breaks could pave the way to downtrends in the Australian currency too.

Just when I thought that AUD/USD is headed towards 1.0200, it encountered support at the 1.0300 area. Is the 1.0400 level this week’s magic number for AUD? After all, the number is near the 38.2% Fib and a former support and resistance area. What do you think?

Nothing do to for the Aussie, that is trying to come back above the 200 days moving average of 1.04 without success. The road to 1.015 seems to be smoothed!

happypip:

Just when I thought that AUD/USD is headed towards 1.0200, it encountered support at the 1.0300 area. Is the 1.0400 level this week’s magic number for AUD? After all, the number is near the 38.2% Fib and a former support and resistance area. What do you think?

Here's a quick look at my favorite range lately! AUD/USD is headed for another test of 1.0200 support, which is the bottom of the long-term range on the daily time frame. Stochastic has already reached the oversold region so a potential bounce could take place anytime soon.

Are the Aussie bulls ready to charge towards 1.0600? AUD/USD struggled at the 1.0200 area for a while, but it looks like it’s already breaking a possible reverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the School of Pipsology is right and the length of breakout is equal to the distance between the head and the neckline, then we might see a 100-pip move at a breakout.