In December
2010 I wrote an article called Will
2012 Be as Critical as 1860?,that
pondered what might happen with the 2012 presidential election and
the possible scenarios that might play out based on that election.
Well, 2012 has arrived and every blogger and mainstream media pundit
is making their predictions for 2012. The benefit of delaying my
predictions until the first week of 2012 is that I’ve been able
to read the wise ponderings of Mike Shedlock, Jesse, Karl Denninger,
and some other brilliant truth seeking analysts regarding what might
happen during 2012. The passage above fromStrauss
& Howe was written fifteen years ago and captured
the essence of what has happened since 2007 and what will drive
all the events over the next decade. Predicting specific events
is a futile human endeavor. The world is so complex and individual
human beings so impulsive and driven by emotion, that the possible
number of particular outcomes is almost infinite.

But, as Strauss
and Howe point out, the core elements that created this Crisis and
the reaction of generational cohorts to the implications of debt,
civic decay and global disorder will drive all the events that will
occur in 2012 and for as far as the eye can see. Linear thinkers
in mega-corporations, mainstream media and Washington D.C. focus
on retaining the status quo, their power and their wealth. They
believe an economic recovery can be manufactured through monetary
manipulation and Keynesian borrowing and spending. They are blind
to the fact that history is cyclical, not linear. In order to have
an understanding of what could happen in the coming year, it is
essential to keep the big picture in focus. As we enter the fifth
year of this twenty year Crisis period, there is absolutely no chance
that 2012 will see an improvement in our economy, political atmosphere
or world situation. Fourth Turnings never de-intensify. They exhaust
themselves after years of chaos, conflict and turmoil. I can guarantee
you that 2012 will see increased mayhem, riots, violent protests,
recessions, bear markets, and a presidential election that will
confound the establishment. All the episodes which will occur in
2012 will have at their core one of the three elements described
by Strauss & Howe in 1997: Debt, Civic Decay, or Global
Disorder.