GerryAZ wrote:If the various hidden subsidies on petroleum were eliminated, the price increases on gasoline and diesel would encourage more consumers to buy EVs and there would be less need for incentives.

True but irrelevant, as that's not going to happen (certainly not in this administration or with this congress).

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

tattoogunman wrote:I have read a few articles and seen a few videos online by various automotive publications/journalists who predict that EV prices will drop significantly once the tax credit expires. They were of the opinion that once the credits go, we will see prices on EVs that better reflect what they should realistically be selling for (i.e. a lot cheaper than they are now). I've also seen predictions that upwards of 8 out of 10 cars sold by 2030 (or thereabouts) will be an EV, but I think that is probably a bit optimistic. I guess we'll see..............

It's certainly the hope that the manufacturers have built in enough of a margin (or will be able to achieve it before the credits expire) that they will be able to reduce prices to compensate and still sell the cars for a profit (assuming they're able to do so now). Whether they can remains to be seen.

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

tattoogunman wrote:I have read a few articles and seen a few videos online by various automotive publications/journalists who predict that EV prices will drop significantly once the tax credit expires. They were of the opinion that once the credits go, we will see prices on EVs that better reflect what they should realistically be selling for (i.e. a lot cheaper than they are now). I've also seen predictions that upwards of 8 out of 10 cars sold by 2030 (or thereabouts) will be an EV, but I think that is probably a bit optimistic. I guess we'll see..............

It's certainly the hope that the manufacturers have built in enough of a margin (or will be able to achieve it before the credits expire) that they will be able to reduce prices to compensate and still sell the cars for a profit (assuming they're able to do so now). Whether they can remains to be seen.

“Electric car sales are not driven by consumer demand. Consumer demand is very limited for electric cars. [Sales] are driven by emissions regulations, and by mainly state and company incentives, which is pushing the consumer to buy these types of cars.”

“It is very difficult to make the electric car an attractive buy without government subsidies for the consumer. So how can you support electric cars if it depends on government subsidies? We need not for an infinite period of time: just to make sure that you jump-start the sales. . . .”

The outspoken CEO said that battery tech and pricing is just not where it needs to be yet. But, he did acknowledge that electric cars are simple, and can become highly competitive. Now though, it’s just not “the thing to do” in most people’s minds. . . .

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

. . . Hong Kong has long been a hotbed for electric car sale, driven mostly by incentives, but what happens when those incentives vanish – almost doubling the cost of a new EV in some cases overnight? EV sales disappear….completely.

In March 2017, electric car sales in Hong Kong stood at 2,964 units. Come April, sales dropped to zero units. This was exactly as we had predicted when news first surfaced of the incentives being slashed.

As South China Morning Post explains:

“Since the April 1 introduction of the first registration tax on EVs, vehicle prices have shot up by 50 to 80 per cent, depending on the model, with tax relief now capped at HK$97,500. The impact has been immediate, and appears to have killed off the future of EVs in Hong Kong overnight.”

Transport Department figures indicate there is a total of 10,589 private EVs registered in the city, and 2,964 of them were registered in March 2017 alone. That healthy growth then hit a red light when not a single private EV was registered in April.”

“There was no first registration of an electric private car in April 2017,” a department spokesman confirms. . . .”

This will impact Tesla the most.The March sales figures show that out of the 2,964 EVs registered that month, all but 20 were either the Model S or Model X. Under the new layout, the price of the Model S soared from HK$570,000 to more than HK$900,000. . . .

It seems that if the price increase is high enough, even Model S/X are dependent on subsidies for sales. I'm sure there will be a minimal rebound (hard not to, from zero), given the structure of the tax (which is aimed at eliminating subsidies beyond the first car owned to reduce congestion), and people no doubt bought in a rush to get the subsidy while it was still available, so we can expect very little sales in Hong Kong for many months to come.

Last edited by GRA on Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

If you're dropping $100k on a car, you don't care about a $7.5k subsidy. If that is the make or break point for you, you shouldn't be buying a $100k car. The registration fees and taxes are going to be as high as the rebate.

2k1Toaster wrote:If you're dropping $100k on a car, you don't care about a $7.5k subsidy. If that is the make or break point for you, you shouldn't be buying a $100k car. The registration fees and taxes are going to be as high as the rebate.

Quite so, but that's not the level of subsidy in HK.

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

soldcake wrote:about HongKong "first registration tax", i think it is 100%+ of the car price normally. That means a 35k+ new car becomes 70k+ at least out of door. The picture is very different than in USA.

I think Singapore is even worse: A friend of mine spent about $70,000 for a Honda Civic about 10 years back. On top of that, he's only allowed to keep the car for 10 years, maximum! It seems that there is a big issue with disposal of a car on an island, so these governments tax UP FRONT for all of the disposal costs. (And it seems they throw in a bunch of other tax, to boot!)