Andrew Miller is taking Edmonton by storm! In what is becoming a hockey March madness, the young forward from Yale has been part of an interesting surge in the past week. Will he spend more than 10 games in the NHL during his career? Hell if I know. He sure does look like a hockey player, though. I spoke to Tom Lynn on the Lowdown yesterday and he told me the number one thing college kids are looking for in signing with an NHL team is opportunity. Lynn said a team (like Edmonton) that gives opportunities (and NHL minutes) to college free agents after signing them gets noticed and the agent (ahem, adviser) uses that when discussing destinations. Bottom line: Andrew Miller’s success bodes well for Edmonton in the next free-agent negotiations.

Yale’s Andrew Miller (2013 National Champion). First NHL goal on a penalty shot last night. https://t.co/hM3XR1QStc”

Lots of movement as the season ending numbers give us a better view (and I had Sprong’s boxcars wrong), plus I added 10 more names to the list to give us 40. I’ll eventually post a top 100 for this season, plenty to go before then including a major amount of information (especially on the Euro kids). If the Oilers draft 3, 21 and 33, they could walk out of this draft with Noah Hanifin, Jansen Harkins and Dennis Yan. That would be a very good day. Would that me my choice? No. I’d take Mitch Marner, Jansen Harkins and maybe Ryan Pilon. Fun draft day ahead!

WHY MARNER?

I think Marner is No. 3 for several reasons, many contained in the boxcar numbers above. That’s insane and a deeper look makes for more kodak moments. He’s 63GP, 25-37-62 at evens (.984 points-per-game) which trails Dylan Strome but Marner is more of a Stone Alone at even strength in London compared to Strome in Erie. Who’s zoomin’ who? Here, let me show you: Below are the players (by team) who are over .8/game at evens in 2014-15:

I’m also comfortable with the Oilers drafting a winger because they can probably acquire a center (Harkins) and a defender (Dermott) early on day two. I think some are forgetting our man Leon Draisaitl, who should be a quality 2C behind the Nuge for years to come.

L1: Hall—Nuge—Eberle

L2: Yakupov—Leon—Marner

That’s a sweet top six, folks. Mitch Marner is a tremendous young hockey player, Edmonton should consider drafting him No. 3 overall. That said, if they select Dylan Strome, I’m fine with it. I am less fine with Noah Hanifin because it isn’t clear (at all) that the young man is the best defenseman available. That’s fairly typical, it takes longer for blue to show their true abilities. I’d stay away from a defenseman at the top of the draft, especially Hanifin because we simply don’t know what he brings offensively. He could be Alex Pietrangelo but he could also be Zach Bogosian. Give me Marner.

CAN THE OILERS CATCH THE LEAFS?

Yes. Absolutely. The Oilers under Nelson solo are 15-18-6 and headed for some tough matchups (Kings twice, Ducks, Flames, Sharks, Canucks) so it’s not a major worry. The likely scenario (imo) has Edmonton finishing No. 28 in the standings and drafting No. 3 overall.

No. 3: Mitch Marner

No. 21: Jansen Harkins

No. 33: Ryan Pilon

That’s the play here.

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189 Responses to "LIGHT AND TRUTH"

I like your projected top six there for a couple years down the road, but there’s still so much talk about what to do with Roy in the immediate. 2 x 2 would be just fine by me if his production stays this way for the final weeks of the season, even if it’s a little on the high side. Can Derek Roy possibly be shooting for the moon in his contract negotiations? Why wouldn’t he stick around? Who else is gonna come calling?

I like your projected top six there for a couple years down the road, but there’s still so much talk about what to do with Roy in the immediate.2 x 2 would be just fine by me if his production stays this way for the final weeks of the season, even if it’s a little on the high side. Can Derek Roy possibly be shooting for the moon in his contract negotiations?Why wouldn’t he stick around?Who else is gonna come calling?

GOOD LORD NO!!!!

He has been dropped by every damn team he’s played for since Buffalo. He has enjoyed no success in years. Suddenly Edmonton picks him up from the scrap heap (not even counting the fact Craig Button repeatedly described him as “NOT AN NHL PLAYER” during the offseason prior to signing with Nashville) and you want to give him 2×2?

I want him on the team next year. That said, he will take $1million flat. Think about it. If someone else offers him $1.5 (the absolute most anyone else will pay him) what are the odds he takes that instead? If he goes to another team there is a really good chance he isn’t in the NHL by January, and he knows it.

He’s got chemistry with a young first overall pick and is being given CHERRY minutes to support and develop him. DEREK ROY WILL PRACTICALLY PAY US TO PLAY HERE NEXT YEAR.

We need to save some money and have value contracts. We need players playing for $1 million next year, and Roy absolutely has to be one of them.

I’m always amused when we talk about hockey players and their decisions with certainty. If I’m Derek Roy, this Oilers audition has been a good one. If the Oilers don’t sign me before July 1, I’m perfectly content with waiting for another team to call in a very weak free-agent summer.

Junior hockey players have a few places on the map that can kill their careers and Lethbridge is one of them. If the young man gets drafted and signed by Edmonton, he’ll at the very least make a bunch of money.

NHL draft picks rarely hold out, demand a trade or refuse to sign. If the money is good, they sign. There are very few choices now that the CBA has closed most of the loopholes.

Why is it less clear that Hanifin is not the best defenseman in this draft? The only analyst who doesn’t have him there is Button, who is known for walkabout rankings.

Do you not think that if Hanifin was playing somewhere in the CHL he would be posting similar if not better numbers than Provorov? I mean he’s more than halfway there playing against much older men.

Werenski is an offense first defenseman who barely outscored Hanifin. Not to mention he was quoted on the pipeline show saying Hanifin was a special defensemen who’s coach trusted him in every situation. Werenski couldn’t even say that for himself in the interview.

I feel Hanifin is getting an unfair shake. His “Boxcars” aren’t elite but he’s playing in a much more difficult league than the CHL. THis is the player I target at #3. Much rather a franchise D than a great undersized winger.

Of course there isn’t certainty, there never is. But that said I stand by my point. We always seem to pay guys 1.5 million or more, where other teams get production out of guys that earn less than $1million.

We’ve got a lot of pricey forwards on this team in depth roles. We’re paying our wagon line $6 million next year. We’ve got to fill the 13th & 14th forward, 3C and 3LW spots with players in the 0.75 to 1.5million range.

I know it’s not a lock, but if I’m GM I see a good opportunity to pay Roy a value deal to give him cheap minutes on a 1 year. He will get a full year Centering Yak with OZ starts to prove his worth to the league. At the end of that full year he can go to market and see what happens. That’s the smart play.

Why is it less clear that Hanifin is not the best defenseman in this draft? The only analyst who doesn’t have him there is Button, who is known for walkabout rankings.

Do you not think that if Hanifin was playing somewhere in the CHL he would be posting similar if not better numbers than Provorov? I mean he’s more than halfway there playing against much older men.

Werenski is an offense first defenseman who barely outscored Hanifin. Not to mention he was quoted on the pipeline show saying Hanifin was a special defensemen who’s coach trusted him in every situation. Werenski couldn’t even say that for himself in the interview.

I feel Hanifin is getting an unfair shake. His “Boxcars” aren’t elite but he’s playing in a much more difficult league than the CHL. THis is the player I target at #3. Much rather a franchise D than a great undersized winger.

I think Provorov may well be the better defenseman. If the Oilers take Hanifin I won’t cry a river but for me there’s a real chance that. in taking him, Edmonton will have passed over the best defenseman in the draft.

That isn’t punishing Hanifin so much as acknowledging that the amount of blacktop Hanifin has put behind him leaves scouts ill prepared to say anything with authority.

Fair enough, and let me be clear, I’m not really holding it against the kid for leaving, I totally get it even if I don’t love it. I guess I’m saying that with a pick in that range there won’t really be a clear BPA, we could likely have Pilon or Zacha or Sompel or DeBrusk. Given what we know about Pilon, to me, there isn’t enough separation there to take that risk.

On a separate note, I had an absolutely marvellous experience with the Hurricanes this year, and can attest that the team turned it around on & off the ice in the latter half of the season. My 4 year old son has evolved into about the biggest Hockey fan you will ever meet, curtesy of both that Oilers vs. Canucks pre season game and a full slate of games here in Lethbridge. I’d love to send you the whole story, maybe I’ll write you an email. It was really amazing watching these kids out on the ice take my boy under their wing and make him a fan for life. I’m extremely grateful to the whole organization, and especially a few of the players who truly made his year one to remember.

I just wish he didn’t wake me up at 6:00am on a Saturday to take my phone and check last nights scores.

Of course there isn’t certainty, there never is.But that said I stand by my point.We always seem to pay guys 1.5 million or more, where other teams get production out of guys that earn less than $1million.

We’ve got a lot of pricey forwards on this team in depth roles.We’re paying our wagon line $6 million next year.We’ve got to fill the 13th & 14th forward, 3C and 3LW spots with players in the 0.75 to 1.5million range.

I know it’s not a lock, but if I’m GM I see a good opportunity to pay Roy a value deal to give him cheap minutes on a 1 year.He will get a full year Centering Yak with OZ starts to prove his worth to the league.At the end of that full year he can go to market and see what happens.That’s the smart play.

Sure. However, Edmonton had to overpay Boyd Gordon to get him here. I’m absolutely willing to cut some slack there, Oilers (when they’re losing) are going to pay more for useful FA’s. Roy is a useful FA, although not ideal.

Put it this way: If the Oilers offer Roy $2M a year, would I be disappointed? No. If they offered him $1.5M a year and he bolted, would I be upset? No.

If we’re talking about signing Roy at all, saying he’ll accept $1M because he has to implies he won’t have options. I disagree.

My issue is that it’s classic Oilers. Paying Cam Barker 2.5 million after getting bought out. Signing Ryan Jones for 1.5 million when it was pretty clear no one else wanted him.

Offer Roy $1 million before July 1, and if he counters with anything above 1.25 then hold off until that day. He wants to play here, that’s clear as day. At some point we’re going to need a value contract if we want to pay a Seabrook etc. to fix the defence.

We’re paying our 4th line 2x what a good team pays their 4th line. That’s fine because by god we need them. We’re paying our 3 worst defensemen 12 million or so.

At some point we’ve got to get some value, and Roy represents the best chance of finding that, given the situation.

Fair enough, and let me be clear, I’m not really holding it against the kid for leaving, I totally get it even if I don’t love it.I guess I’m saying that with a pick in that range there won’t really be a clear BPA, we could likely have Pilon or Zacha or Sompel or DeBrusk. Given what we know about Pilon, to me, there isn’t enough separation there to take that risk.

On a separate note, I had an absolutely marvellous experience with the Hurricanes this year, and can attest that the team turned it around on & off the ice in the latter half of the season.My 4 year old son has evolved into about the biggest Hockey fan you will ever meet, curtesy of both that Oilers vs. Canucks pre season game and a full slate of games here in Lethbridge.I’d love to send you the whole story, maybe I’ll write you an email.It was really amazing watching these kids out on the ice take my boy under their wing and make him a fan for life.I’m extremely grateful to the whole organization, and especially a few of the players who truly made his year one to remember.

I just wish he didn’t wake me up at 6:00am on a Saturday to take my phone and check last nights scores.

I guess what I’m saying is that you come in offering the guy $1million x 1, not $2×2. If you end up paying him $1.5 so be it (no one in the NHL will offer him more than that, or at least I’d be shocked if they did).

My issue is that it’s classic Oilers.Paying Cam Barker 2.5 million after getting bought out.Signing Ryan Jones for 1.5 million when it was pretty clear no one else wanted him.

Offer Roy $1 million before July 1, and if he counters with anything above 1.25 then hold off until that day.He wants to play here, that’s clear as day. At some point we’re going to need a value contract if we want to pay a Seabrook etc. to fix the defence.

We’re paying our 4th line 2x what a good team pays their 4th line.That’s fine because by god we need them.We’re paying our 3 worst defensemen 12 million or so.

At some point we’ve got to get some value, and Roy represents the best chance of finding that, given the situation.

Oilers value contracts will come from Klefbom, Marincin, Lander et al. Roy is 31, he may feel that he’s finally recovered from some injury issues and is ready for a feature role on a contender. I don’t disagree with your idea of going in low, though. Nothing wrong with offering him 1 or 1.25 and if he signs elsewhere for $2M then it’s an opportunity gone for both sides.

You mean the Oil aren’t going to buy-out Ference and Nikitin and let Schultz walk??? #CapSavings

If you think Drai is ready to grab that 2C bull by the horns and can have better success with Yak then he did earlier this season, then letting Roy go if he wants a raise seems to be a fair decision. But it’s risky.

You’ve got a “bird in the hand” right now, one of the few bright spots in this misery season. Why let it go on the hope of a couple birds in the bush.

Am I underestimating the early season play of Drai-Yak on a line? Was it better than my memory is leading me to believe?

Agreed. Miller is making a case for a Roster spot (not there yet, but a good finish and a good camp could mean, at worst, extra Forward).

I’d love to see us make a trade with STL for all of Sobotka, JBow, and Pajaarvi. To me Pajaarvi has real potential as a cheap, responsible depth player in the Dvorak mold, and I like the idea of pairing him with Lander in a shutdown role for years to come. If I could use a 3rd rounder to pick him today I would do so, and I believe STL would take that trade (maybe a lower pick is possible).

I don’t know how to get that deal done, but I like all of those players, I like their value, and I think they are undervalued by the league & their current team, who in turn needs some cap space. That’s target number 1 for me this year in trade terms.

Lowetide: I think Provorov may well be the better defenseman. If the Oilers take Hanifin I won’t cry a river but for me there’s a real chance that.in taking him, Edmonton will have passed over the best defenseman in the draft.

We all use this example of course, but it’s a good one. Both Pietrangelo and Karlsson are impact players now, while Bogo–picked higher–is a very good complementary player.

Top defenders need cerebral, consistently steady defensive play as well as elite offensive ability. I think it’s really hard for scouts to predict when you’ll get both.

Of course, the real Q is quite different this year than in 2008 where all the impact players picked from #2 down were defenders. This year, it’s not whether Hanifin is better than Provorov etc. It’s whether Strome is a better gamble than both of those.

Need more Dmen or else their ceiling is COL if they manage to get a good goalie.

All the talent in the world up front doesn’t matter if the default zone exit by 4/6 Dmen is “off the glass and out”

I would also like to echo these sentiments, but in a less polite, and more “wtf do we want to draft another winger for???!?” way.

The blue is hurting badly, and it seems that no help is coming any time soon in the way of free agency or trade. For me, it’s all about McDavid/Eichel (just due to skill level.. and it’s also somewhat of a need) or Hanafin. I realize that this statement can come back to haunt me later, but talking wingers at this point now hurts my head (and this is before taking Marner’s small size into account .. which again, I realize isn’t always wise to worry over).

Racki: I would also like to echo these sentiments, but in a less polite, and more “wtf do we want to draft another winger for???!?” way.

The blue is hurting badly, and it seems that no help is coming any time soon in the way of free agency or trade. For me, it’s all about McDavid/Eichel (just due to skill level.. and it’s also somewhat of a need) or Hanafin. I realize that this statement can come back to haunt me later, but talking wingers at this point now hurts my head.

The Oilers have Klefbom, Nurse and Marincin either here or close. Help is on the way. I don’t think it’s wise to attempt solving the problems of the current club with the No. 3 overall selection. Two years from now, when Hanifin is ready, the holes could be elsewhere.

Need more Dmen or else their ceiling is COL if they manage to get a good goalie.

All the talent in the world up front doesn’t matter if the default zone exit by 4/6 Dmen is “off the glass and out”

I agree WG. They have a golden opportunity to add a top pairing defenceman who will anchor the blueline for the next decade. That will improve the play of the existing forward group. The top 6 scenario that LT has created with Marner looks good on paper but I question how effective they would be, especially down low, along the boards, and in front of the net. I love the skill but more balance (size) is needed.

The Oilers have help coming but no one even close to Hanifin. Hell, even Klefbom and Marincin aren’t the caliber of Hanifin. A Nurse-Hanifin top pairing can actually turn this ship around. That might be 2 or 3 years from now but that pairing is a game changer. Running Klefbom and Marincin on a second pairing is wonderful depth at such a crucial position.

Lowetide: The Oilers have Klefbom, Nurse and Marincin either here or close. Help is on the way. I don’t think it’s wise to attempt solving the problems of the current club with the No. 3 overall selection. Two years from now, when Hanifin is ready, the holes could be elsewhere.

Draft bpa. It’s Marner.

Hanifin and Proverov haven’t shown they are worth a top five pick let alone a top three.

Hanifin is a great skater but an average shot that hasn’t created offence in NCAA.

There would be lots of risk picking a D in top five that hasn’t shown much.

He has been dropped by every damn team he’s played for since Buffalo.He has enjoyed no success in years.Suddenly Edmonton picks him up from the scrap heap (not even counting the fact Craig Button repeatedly described him as “NOT AN NHL PLAYER” during the offseason prior to signing with Nashville) and you want to give him 2×2?

I want him on the team next year.That said, he will take $1million flat. Think about it.If someone else offers him $1.5 (the absolute most anyone else will pay him) what are the odds he takes that instead?If he goes to another team there is a really good chance he isn’t in the NHL by January, and he knows it.

He’s got chemistry with a young first overall pick and is being given CHERRY minutes to support and develop him.DEREK ROY WILL PRACTICALLY PAY US TO PLAY HERE NEXT YEAR.

We need to save some money and have value contracts.We need players playing for $1 million next year, and Roy absolutely has to be one of them.

Love the player, love what he’s doing for Yak.SIGN HIM FOR CHEAP.

That’s actually an extremely good point… And I hope MacT recognizes it.

The Oilers have help coming but no one even close to Hanifin.Hell, even Klefbom and Marincin aren’t the caliber of Hanifin.A Nurse-Hanifin top pairing can actually turn this ship around.That might be 2 or 3 years from now but that pairing is a game changer. Running Klefbom and Marincin on a second pairing is wonderful depth at such a crucial position.

History teaches us that if there’s a mistake to be made, it is with the defensemen. I like Hanifin btw, but am not as sure of him being a complete defenseman as I am of Marner/Strome being impact offensive players.

Will Hanifin spend his career on the PP? I don’t think that’s clear at all. Provorov is a far better bet. And if Hanifin isn’t a player who can be productive in all three areas, are you sure he’s the guy at No. 3 overall?

Small players can suceed on the NHL, but it tends to be more the exception than the norm, especially in the West. Marner I think will be a very similar player to Eberle, and I just don’t see the point in having two Eberles in the top 6 forwards along with Yakupov who is also a soft player, I’d rather have Pouliot or another larger winger to provide more of a mix in the top 6. If we take a forward I’d like it to be a big gritty winger (like Crouse), but my preference would be to take Hanifin, or trade the pick for a prospect defenseman further along the development path, than a punt on another small talented winger. It’s far from consensus that Marner is the best player available at 3 or 4, and our D needs far outweigh our forward ones, you can never be to deep in D, but we are still way to shallow even with our prospects maturing,

I was pretty sure the verbal from pretty much everyone is that Hanifin is worth his salt and that his offensive numbers aren’t really indicative of his potential.
Honestly, I don’t care which one we take if we draft top 5, they’re all clearly good players who could fit into our roster in short order.
If we take Strome then maybe in a few years our centre depth is Nuge, Drai, Strome, Lander… Doesn’t that sound amazing? You could even move one of them to the wing and pick up someone experienced in the meantime.
Marner would fit in well complimenting Yak and Drai on the second line, and having potentially 3 impact defenders on a team is a problem I don’t mind having at all.
I think you definitely keep that pick.

In other news, we have three scoring lines now apparently… Isn’t it nice to know we have players on the ice who can wheel at any given moment? … I just wish we had Hendricks and Gordon 🙁

Lowetide: Yeah, I think Provorov is a guy who needs more attention as we get closer to the draft.

Oh, agreed. It will only be interesting because, by the numbers strictly, Marner is a clear #3. If Strome or Hannifin is available at #5, given what the Oilers need and the rankings that are in place, it won’t even be a question of who they take.

Also if SJ or LA win the lottery it will be absolutely soul crushing (instant rebuild for a team that doesn’t even need one).

If Boston wins the lottery we should offer them Louie Erikson for the pick.

Defensemen are difference makers. Forwards are not. One can always find forwards who are good enough to contend. It is a lot harder to find the D to contend.

Just look at Detroit without Lidstrom. From contender to just a very good team. Look at Pittsburgh, with arguably the two of the three best forwards in the league, only one Cup. #ZdenoChara #DrewDoughty

Fun game last night to watch. Happy for Miller and what a snipe. I thought that Lander had a great game. The pass to Miller for a breakaway and also another one that sprung Hall. He could be the oiler version of Marcus Kruger.

I usually watch the game on PVR so I can get through it in an hour and I also don’t have to listen to the talking heads so much. A few thoughts/questions I had last night
1. If the oilers put Nikitin on waivers to bury him, does the cap hit stay buried heading into next season? The Wade Reddon treatment
2. If Sobotka is available, try to acquire him. He would be a great add and the financial cost not too dear.
3. I am fine with Roy, but think he might be better suited to play the wing opposite Yak. He is not very good on face offs and d zone coverage is not great either. He is at the point in a career where short stops need to move to second base

That could give the oilers
Pouliot-Nuge-Ebx
Hall-Lander-Purcell
Roy-Sobotka-Yak
Wagon line

eidy:
Fun game last night to watch.Happy for Miller and what a snipe.I thought that Lander had a great game.The pass to Miller for a breakaway and also another one that sprung Hall. He could be the oiler version of Marcus Kruger.

I usually watch the game on PVR so I can get through it in an hour and I also don’t have to listen to the talking heads so much.A few thoughts/questions I had last night
1.If the oilers put Nikitin on waivers to bury him, does the cap hit stay buried heading into next season?The Wade Reddon treatment
2.If Sobotka is available, try to acquire him.He would be a great add and the financial cost not too dear.
3.I am fine with Roy, but think he might be better suited to play the wing opposite Yak.He is not very good on face offs and d zone coverage is not great either.He is at the point in a career where short stops need to move to second base

That could give the oilers
Pouliot-Nuge-Ebx
Hall-Lander-Purcell
Roy-Sobotka-Yak
Wagon line

godot10:
Defensemen are difference makers.Forwards are not.One can always find forwards who are good enough to contend.It is a lot harder to find the D to contend.

Just look at Detroit without Lidstrom. From contender to just a very good team.Look at Pittsburgh, with arguably the two of the three best forwards in the league, only one Cup.#ZdenoChara #DrewDoughty

#JustSayNoah

The top drafted D who failed are all poor skaters.

In a redraft, Seth Jones doesn’t slide.Aaron Ekblad.Pieterangelo.

Not to pick on you specifically, but hashtags are used to make twitter topics easily searchable/sortable. They don’t really make any sense in comment sections. Using them here is a little like putting a book’s table of contents halfway through a song lyric.

Lowetide: Oilers value contracts will come from Klefbom, Marincin, Lander et al. Roy is 31, he may feel that he’s finally recovered from some injury issues and is ready for a feature role on a contender. I don’t disagree with your idea of going in low, though. Nothing wrong with offering him 1 or 1.25 and if he signs elsewhere for $2M then it’s an opportunity gone for both sides.

You just landed on the key ” an opportunity for both sides “. Lets not forget his points in Nashville and he didn’t do well in Vancouver . His last 3 years haven’t been good so this should be a win win for both at $ 1.5 for 1 year . As for other value contracts McT should be looking at bridge deals for Lander M.M. & Klef and those 3 could be here for years . Don’t screw them right away .

Lowetide: The Oilers have Klefbom, Nurse and Marincin either here or close. Help is on the way. I don’t think it’s wise to attempt solving the problems of the current club with the No. 3 overall selection. Two years from now, when Hanifin is ready, the holes could be elsewhere.

Draft bpa. It’s Marner.

Help is on the way, presumably, but I don’t think any team has ever complained about a glut of centres or defensemen. Also, Hanifin seemed to be close to a consensus #3 for a while with a lot of scouts (well, going by Bob’s list… Button doesn’t seem to feel the same, at least now). I am not sure it’s such a reach. Each year we hear the same sort of talk “Oh, I don’t know about picking a defenseman… they’re so risky….”. Then we see Ekblad knock it the eff out of the park (of course we didn’t have a shot at him, but I was all in on Ekblad and there were many doubting him), Seth Jones looks quite good already.. the hindsight drafters rage about how we should have taken Ryan Murray over Yakupov, etc..

I think on any other team that has a solid foundation, I’d go with the BPA too, but we’ve been down that road already, and it may have set this team back a little (that’s arguable, anyway… I’m admittedly actually fairly content with who we drafted and don’t think there was anything too terribly wrong in the top picks). I think this team has to be a bit greedy and draft by need still. The blueline is still a disaster, even with the names you’ve mentioned, and if you’re going to have a glut of players at any position, it should be defense, and also centre, in my opinion.

If there’s a big gap between these players, then maybe I’d do draft the winger. Actually, I probably still wouldn’t do it, I’d probably just move the pick if you can get a solid enough player for it. If they’re unsure whether Provorov or Hanifin are better, they should be scouting the shit out of those guys right now, in my opinion.

Yakupov may have proven that wingers aren’t a slam dunk either. I love the kid though, so I hate to talk badly about him to illustrate a point, but he hasn’t exactly hit the ground running.

We all use this example of course, but it’s a good one.Both Pietrangelo and Karlsson are impact players now, while Bogo–picked higher–is a very good complementary player.

Top defenders need cerebral, consistently steady defensive play as well as elite offensive ability.I think it’s really hard for scouts to predict when you’ll get both.

Of course, the real Q is quite different this year than in 2008 where all the impact players picked from #2 down were defenders.This year, it’s not whether Hanifin is better than Provorov etc. It’s whether Strome is a better gamble than both of those.

I don’t know the answer, but that’s the question.

Obviously Button thinks Provorov is and he spends more time in the west .There is always a bit of luck . Ebs today would be top 5 and Yak would be below 5th and Gags would drop past top 10 . Teams take a chance unless it’s McDavid so why not also pick for need.

That could be saying deciding between Doughty and Pietrangelo is a big issue.

I know Dmen are much tougher to project but all the verbal from smart people on Hanifin is that he’s what you want in a 1LD and like you often mention the scouts rarely get it wrong at the top.

I’d feel much better about Hanifin if people were comparing him to Drew Doughty. I have read comparisons to Brent Seabrook, which seems more reasonable. About half of Doughty’s NHL goalis have come on the PP, I’m not certain Hanifin spends a lot of time in his career on the PP.

It could happen and he might be the best player available at No. 3. I’m convinced Marner and Strome are better bets.

Strength down the middle. Redundancy of prospects in key positions. Small, skilled wingers fall from every tree that you shake. Tiny players who are successful are the exception, not the rule, so you need to be very careful where you draft them. This team will never be successful without:
a. Defencemen who can break up the other teams offence and send the puck to the right people going the right direction.
b. Centres who can impose their will on the other team, either with elite skill, gorilla strength, or ideally both. Skating ability is required.
No to Marner.
As far as Hanifin vs. Provorov, that’s why you pay scouts.

I haven’t seen Marner play, but I do know that a smallish winger at the draft is not going to go over very well with a lot of the mob. Decisions should not be made with the mob in mind, but it would be interesting to see that play out.

My issue with Marner at 3 comes down to our inability to trade to fill holes. BPA all these years is great if you are filling the other holes in trade. That’s not going to happen. Our C depth is weak, our D is atrocious.

If we take Marner and Darnell comes in and does great but tops out at a Gator Smith level, we are screwed. I’d prefer they decide on best D in the draft and take them at 3.

That top 6 is great on paper, but without a vastly improved defense soon, they won’t have a chance. And then we start to talk about the 80 cents on the dollar we are going to get for Hall and Ebs.

Absolutely have to improve the defence. If you deal Hall or Ebs to help put together an NHL D corps, then sure fill your boots with Marner. But I have no faith we will be able to make a good trade to fix it, that’s why I say draft a D, and pray Hall and Ebs are more patient and loyal than we deserve. We have to build an entire team, not just a top 6.

Hometown hockey in Lethbridge this weekend. I told my son (who hasn’t quite figured out sarcasm) that I’d leave him in the parking lot overnight so he could really soak up the whole experience. He thinks it’s really important that I get to meet Messier, since he knows he was my favourite player growing up. Offered to wait in line with me.

Lowetide: History teaches us that if there’s a mistake to be made, it is with the defensemen. I like Hanifin btw, but am not as sure of him being a complete defenseman as I am of Marner/Strome being impact offensive players.

Will Hanifin spend his career on the PP? I don’t think that’s clear at all. Provorov is a far better bet. And if Hanifin isn’t a player who can be productive in all three areas, are you sure he’s the guy at No. 3 overall?

I’m not.

I’m sure he would get some PP time, but that is not a determining factor for me. PP time is such a small number of minutes and the Oilers can fill that with a guy who is a 3rd line PP specialist, 3rd line PP specialist 🙂 I’m more interested in the defenceman who is dominant 5v5 and that’s Hanifin. His ability to defend (break up the rush, break the cycle, skate the puck up ice, get the puck to the offensive zone is) is the best in the draft. He is also comfortable with the physical game and not afraid to throw a big check when the time is right. Skating and hockey smarts are through-the-roof good. This is a Ryan Suter more than a Brent Seabrook in my opinion. And it’s not like he doesn’t have offensive ability, just not the booming shot like Weber, Subban, etc. We are talking about a complete, 25-30 minute per night defenceman who plays against the other teams top players. Complement that with Darnell Nurse and you get a true top pair D.

Injuries have impacted De Hann and Gormley, they might cover the bet. Smid and Gudbranson never had much skill and were just picked too high. Lee busted for whatever reason. Hickey’s game did not translate well, even though he has salvaged his career lately.

*Now everbodys mileage will vary on which players belong where, but this comment is more about what are the factors in why D men don’t make it as a top 3 D man ( Some of the guys that do not cover the bet on where they were drafted,J Johnson at 2nd overall, Alzner at 5th overall, Bogosian 3rd overall, but we can do that exercise for forwards as well)

Number 1 issue is skating. You don’t have at least good skating, you will not cover the bet. See the list.

Number 2 issue is skill. Some players are picked high because they are big and skate very well, but lack skill. See Gudbranson. His peak NHL E suggests at D man who peaks near 25 points. Another player is Smid.

Injuries, lack of good hockey IQ, lack of proper development, and a lack of drive to become better also factor into why players do not cover the bet.

The take away of all this; If you are big ( over 6 foot 1), have good to elite skating, are picked in the top 15, the chances you make it as a top 3 D men are over 75%.

Now if you add skill, the chances you make it as a top 3 D man are over 90%.

With this all said, we could draft Hanifan 3rd overall and he could just be a Johnson clone ( all the tools, no toolbox) and just be a good 2nd pairing D man, while we watch Marner score 90 points a year and say to ourselves, “yup, we effed that one up.”

But it could go the other way as well, we pick Marner and he is Gilbert Brule 2.0, and Hanifan becomes OEL 2.0 and we say to ourselves “yup, we effed that one up.”

For the record, Hanifan checks all the boxes off so far that I would want him as the 3rd overall pick. If we get Strome or Marner I’m happy as well, its just that if the gap between these 3 is small, Id rather have Hanifan.

I was just catching up on the CHL playoffs and the Oilers prospects sure had a nice day (except Marco Roy’s team). The Kelowna Rockets are going to be in tough to beat the Brandon Wheat Kings in the WHL. SSM had another dominant game, which has become the norm over the past month. Darnell Nurse might be hoisting the Memorial Cup trophy when it’s all said and done. That is just an amazing junior hockey team.

I was surprised to see Kingston get blown out so bad. 17 shots on net with Bennett and Crouse in the lineup is eyebrow raising to say the least. They both posted 0-0-0 -4 boxcars on the night. I’m not saying they are bad (they’re not!) but you would think that they were the greatest junior players in the world with some of the hyperbole over the past few weeks. They’ve had a few cringe worthy performances this past week, not just yesterday’s game. I think that the Oilers did just fine with Leon Draisaitl, who can really control the game at the junior level. The Crouse rhetoric has quieted down, too, and rightfully so.

Lowetide: About half of Doughty’s NHL goalis have come on the PP, I’m not certain Hanifin spends a lot of time in his career on the PP.

College hockey is a different beast than junior hockey. Hanifin is playing against men. Almost every player is two years older. The best players are three and 4 years olders or more. US college hockey has gotten so good, that draft eligibles mostly go to the USHL for a year or two before even heading to college.

There is also a pecking order in college moreso than in junior hockey. Freshmen aren’t handed anything. Hanifan adjusted quickly to playing against men.

Hanifan played well as a draft eligible in the World Juniors, a nineteen year old tournament, where hardly any draft eligible D ever make an impact, and the ones that do recently, have not been busts.

Fowler, Doughty, Bouwmeester, Jones, Ekblad.

Hanifin is the BPA after McDavid and Eichel. The choice between Hanifin, Marner, and Strome is not one of need, since the OIlers have Nurse, Yakupov, and Draisaitl.

The #criticality of D to contending, and the #scarcity of elite D is what tips the balance when a potential elite D is sitting there. An elite D is just much more rare and valuable than an elite forward.

Hanifin, like Jones and Ekblad, is probably closer to contributing than Marner and/or Strome. Hanifan can go to the AHL.

godot10: College hockey is a different beast than junior hockey.Hanifin is playing against men.Almost every player is two years older.The best players are three and 4 years olders or more.US college hockey has gotten so good, that draft eligibles mostly go to the USHL for a year or two before even heading to college.

There is also a pecking order in college moreso than in junior hockey.Freshmen aren’t handed anything. Hanifan adjusted quickly to playing against men.

Hanifan played well as a draft eligible in the World Juniors, a nineteen year old tournament, where hardly any draft eligible D ever make an impact, and the ones that do recently, have not been busts.

Fowler, Doughty, Bouwmeester, Jones, Ekblad.

Hanifin is the BPA after McDavid and Eichel.The choice between Hanifin, Marner, and Strome is not one of need, since the OIlers have Nurse, Yakupov, and Draisaitl.

The #criticality of D to contending, and the #scarcity of elite D is what tips the balance when a potential elite D is sitting there.An elite D is just much more rare and valuable than an elite forward.

Hanifin, like Jones and Ekblad, is probably closer to contributing than Marner and/or Strome.Hanifan can go to the AHL.

Ca$h-Money!:
Hometown hockey in Lethbridge this weekend.I told my son (who hasn’t quite figured out sarcasm) that I’d leave him in the parking lot overnight so he could really soak up the whole experience.He thinks it’s really important that I get to meet Messier, since he knows he was my favourite player growing up.Offered to wait in line with me.

And… it’s cancelled. Apparently 30km/hour winds cancel an outdoor event in Lethbridge in March… makes me wonder if the people organizing it have ever been here, because this is pretty much a standard March day. Glad I spent all that time getting the kids ready.

Hanifin is a great skater but an average shot that hasn’t created offence in NCAA.

Well that’s just simply not true.

The thing is that its tough to compare his numbers becuase its pretty rare that a NCAA Dman is draft eligible in his freshman year.

Most NCAA Dmen are drafted out of high school (or tier II Canadian league like BCHL or AJHL) then are freshmen in the NCAA in their draft + 1 year (like Trouba, Matheson (FLA), Petry, Oleksiak, Forbort, Tinordi etc)

So there are very few actual comparables.

They fact that he’s not dominating kids like Bogosian did makes us less likey to make that kind of mistake (or be wary of Ekblad becuase of how Bogosian turned out)

Hanifin is playing against mostly 20-24 year olds and he just turned 18 in January.

To do what he’s doing is pretty incredible.

Button was down on his offence early and compared him to Bouwmeester who is an exceptional skater, but brought mediocre offence to the NHL.

Hanifin’s scoring started a little slow, but he finished the last 1/2 of his season near 1pt/gm

He was freaking 17 years old for most of this year in the NCAA and is the 4th leading scorer on BC and only 5 pts off leading BC for the year.

That’s a sweet top 6, yeah if you eliminate physical contact from the league. That top 6 would get physically owned in the playoffs . There’s a reason that Pouliot is still on the top line. You need some size.

That’s a sweet top 6, yeah if you eliminate physical contact from the league.That top 6 would get physically owned in the playoffs .There’s a reason that Pouliot is still on the top line.You need some size.

Yeah, Chicago has two cups because their key scorers up front are so huge……wait a minute….

The only reason its a question is the draft bloggers need something to talk about. Hanifin has been the number 1 defenseman all year and will be in the end. I’m sure both him and Provorov will be good players. You know, you can sometimes find more than one good defenseman in a draft.

That could be saying deciding between Doughty and Pietrangelo is a big issue.

You’d be pretty happy with either.

I know Dmen are much tougher to project but all the verbal from smart people on Hanifin is that he’s what you want in a 1LD and like you often mention the scouts rarely get it wrong at the top.

I feel more comfortable (this is just my take, but without having looked into any numbers or historical studies, so I’m open to new information) saying scouts are less likely to get it wrong with forwards at the top of the draft than D.

Hanifin is a great skater but an average shot that hasn’t created offence in NCAA.

Well that’s just simply not true.

The thing is that its tough to compare his numbers becuase its pretty rare that a NCAA Dman is draft eligible in his freshman year.

Most NCAA Dmen are drafted out of high school (or tier II Canadian league like BCHL or AJHL) then are freshmen in the NCAA in their draft + 1 year (like Trouba, Matheson (FLA), Petry, Oleksiak, Forbort, Tinordi etc)

So there are very few actual comparables.

They fact that he’s not dominating kids like Bogosian did makes us less likey to make that kind of mistake (or be wary of Ekblad becuase of how Bogosian turned out)

Hanifin is playing against mostly 20-24 year olds and he just turned 18 in January.

To do what he’s doing is pretty incredible.

Button was down on his offence early and compared him to Bouwmeester who is an exceptional skater, but brought mediocre offence to the NHL.

Hanifin’s scoring started a little slow, but he finished the last 1/2 of his season near 1pt/gm

He was freaking 17 years old for most of this year in the NCAA and is the 4th leading scorer on BC and only 5 pts off leading BC for the year.

I really sense Hanifan is being underrated because he didn’t stand out at the World Juniors. He seems like he is being picked apart similarly to Jones/Ekblad were in their draft years. He is literally a year ahead of where Trouba was.

That’s a sweet top 6, yeah if you eliminate physical contact from the league.That top 6 would get physically owned in the playoffs .There’s a reason that Pouliot is still on the top line.You need some size.

Man, I really like Pouliot. He really plays a 200 foot game — maybe the best on the team.

Umm. Toews would be the biggest guy in that top 6 except for Draisatl. Kane is the only small key player and to make up for it they had giants in the lineup ( Brian Bickells, Handzus). On top of a good defensive core. Those size differences arent even comparable. Your oilers lineup has 1 guy above 6 feet and 200 lbs. Kane and Shaw were the only guys under 6 feet tall and 190 lbs in the whole lineup

That 2013 Blackhawks team is not small. I don’t know where people get that idea. Yes Kane is small, Shaw is small, but other than that there is some size in that lineup. They may not be the most physical team but they are not small by any means.

They had a perfect balance of skill and size. Their top minute guys (Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook) are all impact players. Most of that roster are willing to play in heavy traffic. The only one who doesn’t (Kane) is a sublime tallent. He’s a perfect complement to the rest of the lineup.

The only reallyk “small” forward the Oilers have is Eberle and he seems to be doing fine.

Hall is 6’1 200
RNH is 6’0 190 and becoming a man.
Yak is 5’11 200 as wide as he is tall and doesn’t get pushed off the puck
DrySaddle is 6’2 210 and still growing

The Oiler’s problems up front haven’t been size but effort.

They were pretty non-competitive, but I think a lot of that is internal drive and Eberle is worlds better than he was earlier in the year. He still loses too many board battles, but he’s winning more now than he every has.

One of best board men I’ve ever seen is Sobatka and he’s 5’11 200lbs.

People don’t want Marner and he’s the closest thing to Pat Kane since Pat Kane.

Personally, it’s not that I don’t want Marner, I just think that Edmonton would be better off drafting a defenseman or centre over a winger. If two players are roughly equivalent (e.g. Strome and Marner, according to Bob M.’s quick poll of scouts on twitter) I’d take the bigger centre over the smaller winger.

My preference is for Hanifin, who I think would have the biggest impact on the organization over the long run. If we draft 4th, and he’s gone, gladly take Strome. If we draft 5th (which, according to Sportsclubstats would take a final run of 6-1-1, 68pts, to have a better than 50% chance of) and Strome is off the board, gladly take Marner.

Edmonton’s going to get a very good player, and might get 3 great ones out of this draft. Good draft year.

speeds: I feel more comfortable (this is just my take, but without having looked into any numbers or historical studies, so I’m open to new information) saying scouts are less likely to get it wrong with forwards at the top of the draft than D.

I HAVE crunched the numbers, lots of ’em (you can search at CnB under G Money), and I can say this:

– You are correct, drafting F high (top 5) is less risky than drafting D high

– The sweet spot (lowest risk relative to draft) is 5 to 15 for high end D.

– Goalies are voodoo. If a drafting sweet spot exists, it is #85 plus or minus 20.

All of this is probabilistic. It doesn’t mean you don’t draft a D in the top 3. You just have to recognize it is higher risk.

So anyone that thinks drafting Hanifin at #3 is just as safe as drafting Strome or Marner is ignoring history.

That said, Godot and others have rightly pointed out that deconstructing draft history does suggest that high D drafts often fail because of skating. The drafting record is more favourable with elite skaters. And Hanifin’s skating is elite. (This, however, doesn’t give me as much comfort as it does others, as Justin Schultz’s skating is also elite).

All said – I’m absolutely fine with drafting Hanifin. He has 1D potential. The Oilers will never contend without a 1D, and 1D are nearly impossible to get without drafting them.

So it’s a sensible risk to take. Let’s just not pretend it isn’t a risk.

Very few played in the NCAA in their draft year, so I’ve warmed up to Hanifin a lot (Werenski too). He’s (currently, at least) outproducing many offensive guys, and that’s in their draft + 1 years too. It’s probably not the best comparison since it’s NCAA, but I would be fine if they chose him. There’s a lot of plays there who play on the poweplay and put up points.

Lowetide: The Oilers have Klefbom, Nurse and Marincin either here or close. Help is on the way. I don’t think it’s wise to attempt solving the problems of the current club with the No. 3 overall selection. Two years from now, when Hanifin is ready, the holes could be elsewhere.

Draft bpa. It’s Marner.

^^^^^^^^
THIS
When you draft for need you forget by the time most of these players are impact your needs change.

The tough call IMO is if we draft 5th, Marner, and Strome are gone, and your list is showing Provorov, Werenski, and Hanifin as pretty close. Who do you take then?

The issue of their size individually is not the problem. Its collectively they are small. Draisatl is the only one that is over 6’1 ” tall and over 200 lbs, which is the average size of an NHL player. If only one player in your top 6 is larger than the average size than by definition it is a small team.

Very few played in the NCAA in their draft year, so I’ve warmed up to Hanifin a lot (Werenski too). He’s (currently, at least) outproducing many offensive guys, and that’s in their draft + 1 years too. It’s probably not the best comparison since it’s NCAA, but I would be fine if they chose him. There’s a lot of plays there who play on the poweplay and put up points.

I did on a Lowetide post a while ago. Centers are by far the safest. D-man are a little scarier than wingers but the quality of Dman you can get is much higher than the quality of winger you may get, top notch dman. A lot of people look at the players and go oh he turned into a 2nd pairing defenseman and look negatively on that but are fine with a winger turning into a 2nd line winger. Unless the winger is by far the best player in his draft aka Kane, Ovechkin at the time, pick a center, and then pick a defenseman. D-men is not the sexy pick. Its like picking linemen in NFL. But without them your star quarterback or star wingers will struggle

Its like looking at prospect in the SEL and going that guy is a bum. He only got 15 points on the year, while this other prospect playing in the Tundra Junior Moose league got 1 bazzilion points so he must be much better.

As much as we debate who we would pick if we finished 3rd, at the moment I tend to think its rather unlikely we hold down the 3rd place spot. Thus we are likely picking 4th or 5th unless God himself attempts to heal the suffering of Oiler fans.

At 4th of 5th what it’s rational to do is largely dependent upon the actions of other teams. Thus we are left to ponder whom Toronto or Arizona has taken of the group of Hanifin, Strome and Marner. We may simply be drafting whichever of them is left. Its difficult for us all to determine what another organization is leaning towards doing. We can speculate on their needs, but generally speaking they are bad teams like us and need everything.

If Arizona gets bumped out of the 2 spot. I would speculate that they would take Hanifan as he’s an American and marketable for them. I’d be surprised if Toronto didn’t take Strome given their long term struggles at centre.

speeds: It depends on the players involved.You wouldn’t have a relatively big D if your top 4 were Karlsson, Letang, Giordano, and Josi, anyone prepared to say that D wouldn’t be any good?

First off, Giordano and Letang are 200 and 201 lbs respectively – not big but not undersized.

The smallest of the four (Karlsson) plays in the East. He’s also most consistently paired with 230 lb Marc Methot or 215 lb Chris Phillips. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

Roman Josi, the second smallest, is consistently paired with 230 lb Shea Weber.

So I wouldn’t say that this particular foursome would be ‘bad’. But given the undeniable skill of each, I think if you put the four of them together out against one of the big Western teams, I think they would not look nearly as good.

I’m with you there WG. So if people haven’t already please tune into TSN2 to watch Hanafin vs Joey Legs.

Joey already had a beautiful goal less than five minutes in, five minutes in. Walked the puck along the blueline to right, simultaneously creating traffic while opening up a shooting lane on the left side. Perfect timed and placed wrist shot the oppostition couldn’t block and their goalie couldn’t see.

Sail on Brad Hunt.

Hanifan’s best comp is OEL. Both scouting reports pre-draft say everything is elite but the point shot.
Major difference is that Hanifan has been ranked #3 since the summer, while OEL was a late riser who should have risen higher.

If you are judging players soley by offensive impact then it makes sense to only pick forwards high in the draft.

A 1st pairing D-man can have a huge effect on a team however without putting up more than 30 points.

Hanifin makes so much sense for the OIlers that they just have to take him.

Analytics has shown that the one player type that is always availible in the latter rounds is the undersized high scoring forward. It’s also the only player type that analytics can regularily identify.

Perhaps a team should be focusing on looking for defensemen early and then picking up the falling forwards in latter rounds.

leadfarmer: Did u see who Nelson had out on the 4 on 3. Klefbom, lander, and Marincin. If Nelson is here next year I think Marincin stays put. He obviously has Nelsons trust

Yes and no. It’s also a factor of being at a purely development stage of the season when losing is actually expected and may even be preferred. Of course he would blood the young players in those kind of situations, even if he would play vets if the games actually mattered. I don’t think it indicates too much.

Yeti: Yes and no. It’s also a factor of being at a purely development stage of the season when losing is actually expected and may even be preferred. Of course he would blood the young players in those kind of situations, even if he would play vets if the games actually mattered. I don’t think it indicates too much.

Nelson is coaching for a job. He is trying to win, with whatever curveballs MacT and fate keep throwing at him.

I don’t want to spread rumors but I will anyway.
There is an obscure twitter reference implying Horak is no longer with Vityaz in the KHL.
Hasn’t worked out with team in a couple weeks. Something to keep an eye on.

To be honest he hasn’t spent much time in his own zone. He and his D partner have both been great at moving the puck out of the zone. On the few occasions that he has had to defend his positioning looks stellar. Broke up one centering pass by fronting two BC forwards.

Grain of salt is a requisite here… but reminding me at times of Visnovsky, Lubomir.

Edit: Maybe I’m just projecting that comp on to him. I Was thinking he may have to play that style to be more that a PP specialist. Regardless I’m seeing him good.

Pouzar:
I don’t want to spread rumors but I will anyway.
There is an obscure twitter reference implying Horak is no longer with Vityaz in the KHL.
Hasn’t worked out with team in a couple weeks. Something to keep an eye on.

Pouzar, is that um, romanized Roman Horak, or is it Роман Горак? I am not seeing anything obvious on the Cyrillic Twitter feeds. But like you said, it was obscure, so it’s entirely possible I overlooked it.

Vityaz did not make the playoffs, right? So I’m not sure if they have much reason to work out. Not sure how it works with KHL contracts, so my ignorance here is overwhelming.

Bohologo: Pouzar, is that um, romanized Roman Horak, or is it Роман Горак? I am not seeing anything obvious on the Cyrillic Twitter feeds.But like you said, it was obscure, so it’s entirely possible I overlooked it.

Vityaz did not make the playoffs, right? So I’m not sure if they have much reason to work out. Not sure how it works with KHL contracts, so my ignorance here is overwhelming.

Oh if they didn’t make the playoffs it’s probably all moot anyways. He’s probably weighing his options.

slambanna: To be honest he hasn’t spent much time in his own zone.He and his D partner have both been great at moving the puck out of the zone.On the few occasions that he has had to defend his positioning looks stellar.Broke up one centering pass by fronting two BC forwards.

Grain of salt is a requisite here… but reminding me at times of Visnovsky, Lubomir.

Edit: Maybe I’m just projecting that comp on to him.I Was thinking he may have to play that style to be more that a PP specialist.Regardless I’m seeing him good.

G Money: I HAVE crunched the numbers, lots of ‘em (you can search at CnB under G Money), and I can say this:

– You are correct, drafting F high (top 5) is less risky than drafting D high

– The sweet spot (lowest risk relative to draft) is 5 to 15 for high end D.

– Goalies are voodoo.If a drafting sweet spot exists, it is #85 plus or minus 20.

All of this is probabilistic.It doesn’t mean you don’t draft a D in the top 3.You just have to recognize it is higher risk.

So anyone that thinks drafting Hanifin at #3 is just as safe as drafting Strome or Marner is ignoring history.

That said, Godot and others have rightly pointed out that deconstructing draft history does suggest that high D drafts often fail because of skating.The drafting record is more favourable with elite skaters.And Hanifin’s skating is elite.(This, however, doesn’t give me as much comfort as it does others, as Justin Schultz’s skating is also elite).

All said – I’m absolutely fine with drafting Hanifin.He has 1D potential. The Oilers will never contend without a 1D, and 1D are nearly impossible to get without drafting them.

So it’s a sensible risk to take.Let’s just not pretend it isn’t a risk.

There is a great article from earlier about Hanifin from Bob Mackenzie. A few highlights

“Hanifin is a shade under 6-foot-3 and weighs 205 pounds. The scouting report says he has world-class wheels, elite offensive skills, can run a power play and use his size effectively to play physically when it’s required. He’s not quite as big as Nashville Predator Seth Jones, the last prospect, before Hanifin, who went into his NHL draft year billed as the next great American defenceman. Some scouts like Hanifin better than Jones at the same stage of development. Others think the jury is still out on that. Regardless, Hanifin is certainly viewed as being in the same universe as the top defenceman from the 2013 NHL draft, who was ranked No. 1 much of his draft year before going fourth overall to Nashville.”

Also, he fast tracked through high school (online courses) so he could skip his senior year and go to college early. he is in University a year earlier, which means he is a full year behind in his growth compared to all the guys he plays against (which makes it much harder the the CHL in terms of physical development of his opponents).

He, to me, is a no brainer at 3. Better then Jones. Already NHL size. And most importantly, maybe drafting him means we move Schultz!!!!!! We can dream.

Hanifin has become underrated around these parts, I see. In my opinion he is hands down better than Provorov.

McDavid/Eichel
Hanifin
Marner
Strome

Secretly I hope most for Eichel because he is a “5-tool” centre and has size but that’s impossible unless Arizona passes Edmonton and Buffalo wins the lottery.

Oilers are most likely looking at fourth

I hope they choose Marner over Strome but I think both will have to be sent back to junior for a year anyway. Strome still needs to work on skating and dominate a year without McDavid. Marner needs to keep growing and bulk up a bit.

Best part of this game? Hanifin and Joey L are flying, and both are taking shifts on the right side. Fun game to watch on a rainy day.

I noticed that they switch a lot. I keep wondering if Hanifin is a L or R defence. He’s both! Such a good skater — transitions from defence to offense and back so seamlessly. Doesn’t hang his D partner out to dry in doing so.

Tire Fire: Not to pick on you specifically, but hashtags are used to make twitter topics easily searchable/sortable. They don’t really make any sense in comment sections. Using them here is a little like putting a book’s table of contents halfway through a song lyric.

I’d advise you to either re-evaluate this position or prepare to be wildly annoyed for the foreseeable future.

The use of hashtags has evolved past the original intent and they have developed into a new kind of figure of speech that isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Your comment is a little like lecturing a kid for playing with play-doh when it’s actually a tool for getting wallpaper stains off walls.

Hockey players are employees and feel that way as shown by their union. I see the main problem with overpaying marginal players is it can drive up the price of good players.

Why should Hall take a hometown discount if Vet X was paid 2X or more an played terrible hockey? It’s not like the others can’t see who isn’t good.

The best thing for any organization especially a struggling one is fairness and accountability. That line of thought dictates that if better players can be found some people get bought out.

The first pick to me is a toss up based on the lottery, but the second
pick should be used for a right shot D. The system is bare, I’d go for Roy with the 2nd, and move to get him or whomever is the best RD.

I’m watching Boston College and Hanifin has obvious skills but I don’t see him as controlling the game which I would expect in such an important game.

pocession charge: I noticed that they switch a lot.I keep wondering if Hanifin is a L or R defence.He’s both!Such a good skater — transitions from defence to offense and back so seamlessly.Doesn’t hang his D partner out to dry in doing so.

And as soon as I say that, he has an ill-timed pinch, gets caught up ice, and Denver scores.

For some additional context. I support Dartmouth, which was a good, but not great, team this season (beat BU and Yale, made it to second round of ECAC playoffs). Their top three scorers this season – all senior forwards in their early 20s – had 30, 24 and 23 pts. Last season their top three scorers ( 2 juniors and a freshman – all forwards) had 29, 21 and 19 pts.

For Hanifan to put up 23 pts as an 18 year freshmen D on a good team is incredible. As far as I can tell from the BC score sheets, one his points was short handed, which means he’s getting pk time as an 18 year freshmen D on a good team. Again, extremely impressive.

Rocknrolla: I’m watching to, but remember this kid skipped his last year of high school, just turned 18 2 months ago, and is in his first NCAA sudden death playoff game, playing against 20-24 year olds.

If he was dominating this game and controlling it he would be ranked 1!I’d say he’s showing well. Great pass for the breakaway there in the third.

The real question should be, where do you project him in 5 years, 2020?

Agreed Hanifin is special and exceeding expectations for a typical freshman but I think if it is about top 3 in the NHL draft , generational and such shouldn’t that be expected that he is as good or better than older players?

Pouzar:
I don’t want to spread rumors but I will anyway.
There is an obscure twitter reference implying Horak is no longer with Vityaz in the KHL.
Hasn’t worked out with team in a couple weeks. Something to keep an eye on.

Unicorns:
Agreed Hanifin is special and exceeding expectations for a typical freshman but I think i is about top 3 in the. NHL draft , generational and such shouldn’t that be expected that he is as good or better than older players?

He is as good or better than older players. Remember the context: Denver is one of the best teams in the NCAA. And be careful judging based on a single game sample, for good or bad.

Unicorns:
Agreed Hanifin is special and exceeding expectations for a typical freshman but I think if it is about top 3 in the NHL draft , generational and such shouldn’t that be expected that he is as good or better than older players?

I think it was play-doh. Wouldn’t affect his argument either way, though. He thinks hashtags are a glorious new podium defying our previously repression-filled nazi grammar system, while I think they are simply the air quotes of the current days: invariably applied incorrectly and a poor substitute for clear expression.

Well, sir, it would appear we are in concordance over our particular selection of beautifying products. As an educated man of both schools, that is to say the school of erudition and the world, I can confidently say that only a man of weak moral fiber would use Fop.

Watched the BC game earlier. Hanifin may not have a great point shot but man can he move the puck. Very calm in possession, able to pick out guys with his vision and hit them on the tape. I think that as a skill has more value than a big shot, especially in a guy you’re going to want out there as much as possible at ES. Hanifin’s stick work defensively is also very good. Positioning, reading the play also ++. Great player. A little raw as he’s growing into a big body, but I really believe the high-end potential is there.

I rate Marner a lot too, and he’s listed as a C in a bunch of places, so while that may not be his full time position, the potential for a him to be that versatile is enticing. It’s a shame he’s a let down in the size department because he’s really a neat little player, and you can really see the range in his skills. He plays a two-way game, can produce offensively like the best of them, impeccable skater. I’m not sure if he’ll reach Pat Kane heights, but he’s definitely one of those small forwards you’ll regret passing up due to size concerns. I take over him Strome if Noah’s gone at 3, and he’s as good insurance as you can get if Yak doesn’t arrive, or Hall can’t stay healthy or Ebs gets traded.

LT, I love your inclusion of Nathan Noel in your other ten. He is another Shattuck St. Mary’s product. Like Tyler Vesel. I dont know if you have seen him play but Noel is an amazing skater. One of the best technical skaters I have euer seen. He is elusive as hell as a result. Disappears offensively for games at a time though he works his butt off on defence. Then he just takes over a game and explodes. Scores in bunches. Noel fits the template of Tobias Reider and Tyler Vesel, smaller forward, puck demon, tremendous skater, great penalty killer, and opportunistic scorer. So where does he go in the draft? Any chance the Oilers draft him?

VOR:
LT, I love your inclusion of Nathan Noel in your other ten. He is another Shattuck St. Mary’s product. Like Tyler Vesel. I dont know if you have seen him play but Noel is an amazing skater. One of the best technical skaters I have euer seen. He is elusive as hell as a result.Disappears offensively for games at a time though he works his butt off on defence. Then he just takes over a game and explodes. Scores in bunches. Noel fits the template of Tobias Reider and Tyler Vesel, smaller forward, puck demon, tremendous skater, great penalty killer, and opportunistic scorer. So where does he go in the draft? Any chance the Oilers draft him?

He has some very nice numbers and is skilled. I like him because he leads his team in points and is draft eligible plus a lot of his offense comes at evens. I bet he goes 45-70, somewhere in there.

The top-end talent on this team *should* be sufficient – Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Yakupov, Drasaitl. That’s a good young group. The Oilers probably should have built around centres and defensemen rather than wingers, but what is done is done.

Despite this top-end talent (our depth is problematic but not really relevant to the #3 pick), this team isn’t going anywhere until it figures out it’s defense. It’s a mess, and it is critical to success. There are some good pieces in the pipeline – Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin and Davidson all look like they could be NHLers and the first two might be really good ones. But are any of them anchors? That’s far from a sure thing.

Noah Hanifin has been ranked #3 by most scouting reports for the entire year. I think that’s significant. He is touted as being a better prospect than either Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, and so even if those two show promise, it’s not a reason to pass on Hanifin. Even if he isn’t the *best* defenseman in the draft, what we really need is a top-pairing guy, a mule who can log minutes, shutdown the opposition’s best players and move the puck. If Hanifin is that, even if someone else emerges as better, I’m okay with that.

If McDavid and Eichel are off the board, and it’s my choice, I’m either taking Hanifin, or drafting Strome and trading Draisaitl for a top-pairing defenseman, or trading the #3 pick for a top-pairing defenseman. They’ve got to solve that backend if they’re going anywhere.

As for the rest of the draft, they do need some forward depth in prospect pool as it’s pretty thin. They are okay at centre for the future with Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and Lander, but it’s always easier to convert a centre to a winger than it is a winger to a centre. Got to draft centres and defensmen with the picks they choose to keep.