Simulation Shows Oroville Dam Spillway Failure

This aerial view looks over the eroded landscape just below the Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway. Photo taken February 15, 2017.

Dale Kolke / California Department of Water Resources

Water managers issued evacuation orders for nearly 200,000 Californians just hours before they thought an emergency spillway at Oroville dam could fail. Emergency officials said it would send a 30 foot wall of water downstream.

Ward says it would be a massive wave near Oroville. The videos of the main spillway releasing 100,000 cubic feet per second pale in comparison.

“We’ve seen all week the videos of the regular spillway operating at full speed at about 100,000 cubic feet per second. This partial break is about 20 times that. It’s going to overpower the dikes and levees for sure,” says Ward.

This simulation by Steven Ward, a UC Santa Cruz geophysicist, shows how fast and widespread flooding would be from an emergency spillway failure. The orange indicates water that empties from an area. Shades of blue represent the depth of the water, the lighter shades are at greater depths.

The most updated map above shows Oroville would receive water at depths of about 20 meters, or 65 feet. Biggs, Gridley, and Live Oak would also be inundated.

Amy came to Sacramento from New Hampshire Public Radio (NHPR) where she was Environment Reporter. Amy has also reported for NPR member stations WFAE in Charlotte, WAMU in Washington D.C. and American Public Media's "Marketplace." Read Full Bio