The key to winning in any political campaign is for a candidate to maximize his or her base of support while holding down the other in his base. The 26th Congressional District was no exception. An analysis of city-by-city vote results from Tuesday shows that Democrat Julia Brownley did the best job of accomplishing that objective — which is why she defeated Republican Tony Strickland.

(A complete city-by-city breakdown is at the end of this post.)

Brownley really ran up the score in Oxnard, winning that city 66 percent to 34 percent in the final unofficial vote count. That 32-point difference was four points better than the city’s Democratic voter registration advantage of 28 percent, meaning that Brownley solidly held the city’s Democratic base and won a sizeable majority of independents.

Oxnard voters provided Brownley with her entire margin of victory and then some. She carried Oxnard by 12,360 votes; she won districtwide by 7,099.

I will reserve a more complete analysis until final numbers are released by December 7. But, I think Strickland’s losing campaign mirrors that of his mentor Mitt Romney’s losing Presidential one.

There are some basic flaws which the Republican Party will have to correct if they wish to win competitive races.

In a nutshell they are:

Candidate selection/recruitment

Women

Hispanics/Immigration

While Strickland may have lost a close race, he is not through politically and with better electoral conditions, I foresee him making a comeback either in the California State Senate or in a re-match in CA-26.

But, this race is NOT over since there are a good number of mail-in ballots that were delivered either on election day or via mail a few days prior. There might be up to 20 per cent of the total ballots cast that have not been counted (40K).

But, Tony Strickland has a steep margin to overcome. It is possible though.

Ventura and Los Angeles Counties must certify their results by December 7.

Stay tuned and if there is any movement in the race, I will be sure to post it up.

The report particularly references CA-26 and SD-27 where Republicans Tony Strickland and Todd Zink are in tightly contested races in districts with competitive (nearly equal) party registrations.

In Ventura County’s two heavily contested races, Republicans ARE turning out to vote by mail. And, turning out like they voted historically in the past two of the three elections.

In CA-26 (Ventura County based Congressional Election) with Tony Strickland vs. Julia Brownley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

In SD-27 (California State Senate which may determine whether Democrats win a 2/3’rds majority of the Senate) with Todd Zink vs. Fran Pavley, Republican voters are at a +4% partisan turnout.

Even, if you consider the other modeling reports, the GOP is plus – at least here in Ventura County.

Could this mean, greater enthusiasm?

I think so, as my local friends and colleagues have expressed an increased desire in casual conversation to vote this election. At least, it means Republicans are not discouraged and are turning out to vote, like they have in the past.

Republican Congressional candidate Tony Strickland continues to be plagued by either the Democratic Party, Democratic candidate Julia Brownley’s campaign or a SuperPAC aligned with Julia Brownley and the Democratic Party.

Here are some photos that were sent to me (note the children playing at the event):

Anybody know who this fellow is?

The police went out and had a few words to say with this guy.

This photo stalking has been a recurring issue for the Stricklands and Tony’s Congressional campaign.

I mean, this really is NOT how we run campaigns in Ventura County – stalking candidates like Paparazzi and intimidating them. You remember the female who was virtually tripping over Tony earlier this summer?

With three weeks before the election, does the opposition campaign really need the footage for ads. No, it looks just like harassment and intimidation to me.