The Sea of Azov incident and Poroshenko’s gamble

As you may have heard, there was an incident on the Black Sea near the entrance to the Sea of Azov on the morning of 25 November between three Ukrainian military vessels and the Russian coast guard. No one was killed, and only three Ukrainian sailors slightly injured. The incident took place beginning at 6:10 am Kerch time and went on for most of the day. It started when the three Ukrainian vessels – two naval artillery boats and a naval tugboat – left Odessa headed for Mariupol, entered Russian territorial waters without following agreed protocol and regulations and proceeded to attempt to enter the Kerch Strait, over which the new Russian Kerch Strait bridge now crosses. The Russians are quite protective of their new bridge.

The Russians initially blockaded the Kerch Strait with a large cargo vessel, preventing the Ukrainian vessels from passing under the bridge. The passage was eventually cleared to traffic, but the Ukrainian vessels were thereafter sequestered in the Kerch harbor. It was a Ukrainian provocation and could have quickly led to a war, but as of this moment the situation is calm. As usual, Ukrainian and Western media are headlining ‘Russian aggression’, whereas the truth is that the Ukrainians were the ones who instigated it.

A little background information is in order before we look at the astrology of the event, and then of Ukraine. It turns out that elections are scheduled for March of next year in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is up for reelection. He currently enjoys a 6.3% approval rating, about half of that of the leading candidate, Yuliya Timoshenko (I remember her as Princess Leia from the Orange Revolution) and just behind Vladimir Zelenskiy, a comedian who once played a Ukrainian president in a popular TV show, “Sluga naroda”. Seems our Poroshenko needs a serious ratings boost. A war might be just the ticket, it would appear, or at the very least, to be seen as a champion against the mighty ‘Russian aggressor’. Since the incident, he has imposed martial law on the coastal areas of Ukraine for a period of 30 days, after he got it passed through the Ukrainian Parliament. He would rather it had been for 60 days, which shows his clout in the Rada is not what he had hoped. In doing so it might postpone the elections and he could probably find other provocations to extend the martial law period. Perhaps this is just being cynical.

For their part in the incident, the Russians tried to diffuse the situation without the use of force, for about five hours, without success. Eventually one of the Russian vessels rammed the Ukrainian tug and the other vessels were fired upon, at which point they surrendered. The wounded were treated by the Russian sailors and now a criminal inquest has been launched by the Russians. The Russians called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, at which they were roundly condemned by all the usual suspects, being called outlaw actors for their ‘illegal actions’ and that they should immediately release the ships to Ukraine.

To clarify, the Sea of Azov is not an international body of water. It is solely under the jurisdiction of Ukraine and Russia, and has been so since 2003, if not before. A bilateral treaty was signed between the two nations in 2003 which guaranteed right of passage for commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and on the sea itself. Tensions on the Sea have been high especially since Crimea seceded from Ukraine – or as we commonly hear it, since Russia annexed Crimea. One facet of the agreement is that the Sea is not to be militarized, but instead is to be used for commercial shipping. Russia seeks to keep Ukraine from militarizing the Azov.

As to the Sea itself, it is the most shallow sea in the world, with an average depth of only 7 meters, and with only 14 meters at its greatest depth. Large ships cannot even enter the Sea, especially large warships. So, even if there were an attempt to militarize it, the only ships that would be able to navigate the Sea would be small patrol craft, artillery ships and smaller frigates. The Kerch Strait itself is on average only 8 meters deep after having been dredged, and because of its shallowness and width, larger ships must be piloted through by port authorities. So, for the event itself, the chart is below (bigger):

In the chart we see immediately that Mars was near the IC immediately before the Ukrainian ships entered Russian waters, and when they entered Neptune was conjunct the IC. There were two significant midpoint structures: Pluto=Sun/Mars and Pluto=Neptune/Ascendant. The Sun/Mars midpoint speaks of the unscrupulous nature of the procedure and is also a midpoint indicated in war. The Neptune/Ascendant midpoint speaks of suffering injury through malice and deceit from other people. Orcus is conjunct the MC, pointing to a separation, a punishing event and, being opposite Neptune, points further to the fraudulent nature of the event. The Sabian symbol for that degree is interesting: “A bride with her veil snatched away”. The incident is being portrayed in the Western media as a Russian aggression and provocation, whereas the veil has been lifted and the true face of the event is seen for what it was – Ukrainian funny business. Saturn is conjunct the Vertex axis, pointing to the serious nature of the event, and it also points to something else when we look at the synastry of the event with the chart of Ukraine, below (bigger):

When we look down along the Pluto line, bottom left, we see that Pluto of the event chart is conjunct the node and ascendant of Ukraine’s chart, which shows the imposition of martial law in eastern Ukraine. There is more to that than meets the eye. Ukraine is a divided nation, largely along ethnic lines. The western half of the nation is strongly pro-Western and anti-Russian, which is where the capital Kiev is located. The eastern half of Ukraine is largely ethnic Russian and thus leans strongly toward Russia, as witness with the Donbass region and Crimea. The Donbass region has declared its autonomy from Kiev and is currently in a state of war with the rest of Ukraine. The imposition of martial law is partly about that, and it is expected that this incident will be used as an excuse for heavier military action against the region. The chart for Ukraine shows these divisions and the confusion under which the nation labors at this early point in its history. Ukraine gained its full independence with the fall of the Soviet Union, on 24 Aug 1991 at 6:00 PM local time. The chart is below (bigger):

Ukraine has a long and troubled history with nationalism and fascism, up to the present day. Chairman of Ukrainian Parliament Andriy Parubiy stated recently that Adolf Hitler was a “big man” for democracy. Why are we sending greatly increased military support to these people? On top of that, corruption is widespread in Ukraine. The West enables corruption in Ukraine. From the middle of next year there are strong solar arcs to this chart involving the meridian axis. The ruler of the Midheaven, Mars, starting in July, receives a square by Saturn. This can represent a military setback, poor decisions based on a hubristic overestimation on the part of the government as to their capabilities, a loss of support or setbacks to their policies, or perhaps a combination of all of these. Such a scene is not difficult to imagine. Jupiter makes a solar arc to the 4th house cusp (opposition parties) at the same time as the Saturn solar arc, in what looks like a showdown for the present government. On top of that, the progressed ascendant squares the natal Mars at that time and the progressed Midheaven is slowly leaving its square to the natal Chiron, which has dragged up many of the old wounds with which Ukraine has been burdened for much of its recent history – Nazism, problems within the religious orthodoxies, problems with its neighbors, etc.

The Poroshenko government has suffered many setbacks, both military and economic, since 2014 when they took power. The conflict in eastern Ukraine is the only thing that allows him to have enough support to stay in power, along with Western financial support for Ukraine in that conflict. The shakiness of the Poroshenko government, along with the recent assassination of Zakharchenko (leader of the Donbass region) and Ukrainian troops beginning to mass in the eastern part of Ukraine, has led many to believe that Poroshenko will seek to escalate the situation there in order to remain in power. Martial law will restrict civil liberties in the areas affected, meaning no demonstrations, protests and the like, and it will expropriate oligarchs in the region. For their part, the Russians have stated that since the assassination of Zakharchenko, there are serious doubts that the Minsk Accords will hold, and that until elections are held in Ukraine, nothing much will change.

Added to that, though, is a hidden agenda, with Europe and NATO seeking to get Ukraine to tear up the 2003 agreement it has with Russia, which would leave the Sea of Azov subject to international rules of the sea. NATO ships would then be free to sail in the Sea unrestricted except for the 12 mile territorial waters. The West is egging Kiev on, especially Britain and the US. The situation could go from bad to worse very quickly were that to happen. Russia would intervene, understandably, rendering the Sea totally Russian territory were they to be successful. And then there is the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit in Argentina, which both Ukraine, Britain the factions within the US want to see scuttled.

Ukraine is a fractious nation at the best of times. This is fully shown in the midpoints. I have gone through this chart looking at the major events since the founding of the republic and it proves itself. I won’t go into all of it here because I have little doubt I will be delving into Ukraine even more deeply in the near future. This Sea of Azov incident marks a turning point in Ukrainian history (chart), with directed Uranus squaring Ukraine’s Ceres. It is in the nature of biting the hand that feeds it, and one wonders if there was outside influence that prompted this action by the Ukrainian navy, as shown by directed Saturn.

Directed Saturn opposite Ukraine’s Venus shows the heavy-handedness of the Ukrainian government, seeing that Venus rules the 4th house (opposition parties, infrastructure) and the 9th house (foreign affairs and foreign trade). It was a poorly planned and desperate act on the part of Kiev, as Ukraine receives its major energy supplies from Russia, and now we are headed into winter. Between Western meddling and the theft of Ukraine’s infrastructure by Ukrainian oligarchs (like Poroshenko) and Western interests, Ukraine is a shadow of its former self, and its people are increasingly in dire straits. And if there are further provocations against Russia, or if Ukraine tried to move further into the NATO fold, resulting in military action against them, then Putin has stated that Ukraine would cease to be a state. It would be a high price to pay for a very short-sighted and dubious political maneuver. For a variety of reasons, 2019 could indeed be a very bad year for Ukraine.