Clippers, storm systems, and temperature swings

We are starting out with much above average temperatures this morning, but a cold front will move through soon. And, then a huge warm up will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday:

A fast moving system is moving across the plains and Great Lakes states this morning. Snow is falling from Chicago to Detroit. A cold front is heading our way. Here is the 7 AM surface map:

There will be a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms later in the week. And, a much stronger storm will be approaching us this weekend. Go to the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here to see where we are in the LRC: Weather 2020 Blog.

We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight. Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Yes, I do believe we will. I have been forecasting at least two accumulating snows this month, and I still expect them to happen. But, we are still not in a good spot this winter, as we all pretty much know.

The system approaching this weekend seems to run a course for 3-4 cycles of the models then change with the next 3-4 cycles and then revert back to original track and intensity. These models sure are having a tough time with the weather pattern.

Gary, if you have the time to answer a question I would appreciate it. After reading thru the LRC blog and studying the pattern as you stated, I am wondering at what point in the LRC do you monitor the change for the next pattern? I mean it is possible at the point of a positive AO that the LRC would have shifted thus causing the currenbt LRC to be OBE (overcome by events). It could be any number of a myriad of variables in the pattern that change which cause the cycle to change.

On my own just observing the past three cycles of the current LRC the 50-55 days seems to be stretching more to the high side on each cycle.

The cycle length has been very consistent at between 51 and 53 days. There are factors that go into the LRC Forecast equation, such as the AO, NAO, and other variables/indexes. Overall, the pattern is still cycling regularly. Let’s see how this next storm ends up lining up. When looking at the computer models from run to run, sometimes they predict a cycle 1 version of the storm, the next run it may be a cycle 2 version (Looking a lot like the December 20th storm on a model run), but in the end it will be this cycle 3 version and we will find out, and experience it soon, within a week or so.

If you don’t mind me asking a relatively frank question: Is there a reason why you’ve chosen to devote your time and energy to yet another weather consulting buisness (weather2020) rather than focus that energy and time on producing a peer-reviewed academic paper?

Many years ago — around 2007 or 2008, you mentioned that a peer-reviewed paper was your big goal and that it was in the works, you just needed to find the time. I was really hoping that we’d have seen something by now – 5 or 6 years later.

The superbowl commrcial of the Chiefs taking sandcastle with the number 1 pick is not that far off LOL.

Gary you really are still thinking 2-4 snow storms this month? All the data is pointing to above average temps for this month. Will you count rain events as being one of the 2-4 and just say it wasn’t cold enough fo snow?

One of the two chances is the storm that moves by us early next week. It produced our first inch of snow in the last cycle. Let’s see how it sets up this time. This morning’s GFS made horrible errors and is just wrong in how it tracked the storm into the plains. I am expecting more of a Canadian model/06z GFS model blend that would bring us a chance of rain and snow early in the week.