Wishful thinking – favouring fantasy over fact

If you find yourself hoping a model is true instead of judging the evidence, show yourself a red flag.

How to recognise this tactic

We all fall victim to this tactic because we use it on ourselves. We like to believe things that conform with our wishes or desires, even to the extent of ignoring evidence to the contrary.

Science is the one domain in which we human beings make a truly heroic effort to counter our innate biases and wishful thinking. Science is the one endeavor in which we have developed a refined methodology for separating what a person hopes is true from what he has good reason to believe.

Sam Harris, American neuroscientist and author, 2007

Whenever a group of people “desperately wants to believe” something, there will always be someone willing to tell them what they want to hear, whether the opportunists are charlatans or simply nutjobs.

Barry Bickmore, American geochemist, 2012

Why do people use this tactic?

We use this tactic on ourselves. It’s hard to avoid because it’s part of human nature. We prefer things to turn out the way we would like them to turn out. Unfortunately, some people exploit this human trait and use it for their own benefit.

What’s wrong with this tactic

When we engage in wishful thinking, we avoid proper evidence from the real world. This means we are likely to come to conclusions that are unscientific and false.

What to do when confronted by this tactic

Be aware that everyone is vulnerable to wishful thinking. Acknowledge that you are no different, look for the signs, and guard against the temptation to dismiss evidence that doesn’t support your wishes. Beware of those who try to exploit your tendency for wishful thinking and discipline yourself to accept only conclusion that are supported by real-world evidence.

Variations and related tactics

Wishful thinkers can recruit just about any dubious tactic or logical fallacy to help them avoid the evidence. The predominant one is confirmation bias, in which we favour information that confirms our existing beliefs. Another is expectation bias, in which investigators look for only those results that favour their own model. Sometimes wishful thinking masquerades as ‘positive thinking’, in which we refuse to accept the possibility of results we don’t like.

Examples

Even the greats of science are susceptible to wishful thinking. Albert Einstein refused to accept the possibility of black holes, even though his general theory of relativity shows how they form, and in 1939 published a faulty paper supporting his position. As physicist Freeman Dyson points out:

Einstein had acquired a deep emotional aversion to the idea of black holes and used this illogical argument to buttress his intuition that they ought not to exist.

Einstein never changed his mind, even though other scientists used his theory to show he was wrong. The existence of black holes is now well established. Scientific models are accepted or rejected on the evidence. not on the authority of individual scientists.

Many bogus health treatments, such as reiki, are based on the idea of a mystical bodily ‘energy field’ that is tapped into and manipulated by the practitioner. The treatment is claimed to cure diseases, heal injuries and reduce pain. among other benefits. There is no scientific evidence for such fields. They are mere products of wishful thinking. A 2008 systematic review of reiki found that “… the evidence is insufficient to suggest that reiki is an effective treatment for any condition. Therefore the value of reiki remains unproven.”

The Secular 10 Commandments

1. Be open-minded and be willing to alter your beliefs with new evidence.
2. Strive to understand what is most likely to be true, not to believe what you wish to be true.
3. The scientific method is the most reliable way of understanding the natural world.
4. Every person has the right to control over their body.
5. Gods are not necessary to be a good person or to live a full and meaningful life.
6. Be mindful of the consequences of all your actions and recognize that you must take responsibility for them.
7. Treat others as you would want them to treat you, and can reasonably expect them to want to be treated. Think about their perspective.
8. We have the responsibility to consider others, including future generations.
9. There is no one right way to live.
10. Leave the world a better place than you found it.