6 comments:

Seems obvious, but the longer you wait the more expensive it gets to find out where you are at.

Against most villains I will bet the flop when there is a single over-card to my pair; a check-raise there from most opponents means what it says, and you can abandon ship cheaply and with high confidence you were beat.

Flop plans might change against the standard NLHE aggro-donk or the showdown monkeys, of course.

If he flats your CB and leads the turn and you think he understands what he's doing, it's a pretty clear fold.

As played, on the River he could easily have 9's, T's, J's - his stats don't tell me much beyond he has two cards, and you signaled no K with the check-back on the Flop... I pry call, the bet is small enough that, combined with his stats it could very well be a "check with a chip."

I'd tend to c-bet this flop if only to balance out those times that I'm c-betting with air.

However, I wouldn't mind min-raising the turn to get to a cheap showdown. A lot of players (even those with AF 1.0) will tend to bet the turn here with a pocket pair or a weak king. Using a min (or small) raise on the turn might get a weak king to fold and also prevents your opponent from bluffing you out with a big bet on the river.

I like an even mix of C-bets and checks on the flop, so your check is fine. You can't fold the turn, since your 2nd pair still has a lot of value, and villain's betting range includes 8-x/7-x/99/TT/JJ or any 2 hearts. Can't fold river to such a small bet.

I think it's fine not to c-bet here every single time. A c-bet certainly makes sense with just the one overcard, but I don't mind you not betting the flop here in a heads-up pot where only a King in his hand really scares you.

When the turn fills both the straight and the flush, and then he bets out half the pot, I am not pleased. I probably make the call in cash play (I would not consider raising given the board here) but am not happy about it.

Then when he leads out again on the river, even with such a small bet, I am giving serious consideration to folding. Sounds like you had to call $5 to win $30, so the question is, are you 83% sure you are behind here? I suppose maybe not, but I do hate calling twice with just the Queens, when even K4s has you beat here.

If the turn didn't fill both the straight and flush draw, I would be far more willing to play a lil bit with the Queens. I just think that turn card was bad for you and I am always weary when a guy bets out after a scary turn card, you call, and then he bets again at the river.

I bet you lose to two pairs here if I have to guess. That river bet is a bit small for the guy with a straight or flush here.

While the villain only has 30 hands, I still have a feel for how he plays. When I see the King high flop, my plan is all set for this hand. I will harken back to my limit days and will call down this guy.His low aggression tells me he has something; but with the small betting I'm not folding. Then again, I'm not raising to either get bluffed by a worse hand or called down by better hand. Hence the title, I'm happy to take this down to showdown as cheaply as possible.

I'm never folding to this small river bet to this type of opponent even with the draws that could have hit on turn. I'm also thinking about raising; but in the end, stayed to my original plan and called.

I personally like your line. Few months back, lucko and I had this discussion about checking behind in position when there's one overcard. A) if you cbet, you are potentially turning your QQ into a bluff and and the thing is, only a better hand will call and most likely the worse hand would fold. B) By checking behind, you might induce a bluff.