Printed below is an English translation of an article published today by the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times, Financieele Dagblad.

Accelerated reduction of Groningen gas production is expensive and time-consuming

The politicians want to close the gas tap further, but that is not possible. ‘I’m going to do everything I can to reduce the costs’, Minister Eric Wiebes of Economic Affairs and Climate promised this week during his visit to the province of Groningen. He has to make that happen now.

According to the coalition agreement, Groningen gas production in 2021 must be reduced to 20.1 billion cubic meters. Wiebes wants to continue. The Dutch Petroleum Company (NAM) also indicated this week, without mentioning volumes, that the gas production will be substantially reduced again. On Thursday, the State Supervision of Mines (SSM) stated that Groningen is in the highest alert level, code red, and that therefore a ‘considerable production reduction’ is necessary.

Gas Production

GroenLinks thinks that a production of 12 billion cubic meters should be the maximum, but the Cabinet is opposed to it. Member of Parliament Rob Jetten (D66) calls ‘maximum safety for the Groningers the only lower limit’. Yet he does not want to stick a number on the production limitation. CDA MP Agnes Mulder (CDA) is annoyed by the opposition proposal. ‘Just coming up with a lower number I find obligatory and people talk to the mouth. You have to come up with concrete measures to bring down production further. ‘

The question is how quickly a reduction is possible. According to a geologist and energy expert, who wants to remain anonymous, the production from Groningen can be reduced to a kind of pilot light. The problem is with the buyers.

Natural Gas Revenues

More than 14 to 15 million households as well as industries and power plants at home and abroad depend on the gas from Slochteren. Belgium, Germany and Northern France are major customers. This annual demand of 21 billion cubic meters of natural gas laid down in long-term contracts can not be significantly lowered in the short term. Stopping delivery in the short term will undoubtedly trigger a legal circus at home and abroad.

The Groningen gas is also low-calorific and less energy-rich than gas from the Dutch North Sea and imported gas from Russia and Norway. With a switch, installations such as central heating systems and gas appliances have to be adapted and that takes time.

Because it has been clear for some time that gas production will decrease, Belgium and Germany, among others, agreed in 2013 to convert their gas installations. ‘From 2020 on, this must lead to an annual reduction in demand of 2 billion cubic meters to low-calorific gas,’ says a Gasunie spokesperson.

At least as time consuming are proposals to convert Dutch power plants, so that an annual 2 billion cubic meters less Groningen gas is needed. Moreover, the Netherlands could switch to efficient hybrid heat pumps. But replacing 400,000 boilers every year has not happened overnight.

Finally, there is a budgetary bump. Effects of gas price changes do not have to be offset elsewhere by the budget. Volume changes though. A quick calculation shows that a reduction in volume to 12 billion cubic meters of gas (at the same gas prices) compared with 2016 is a gap in the national budget of a small billion euros.

In the coming months Wiebes will sit around the table with SodM, Gasunie, gas dealer GasTerra and NAM to see what is possible. On Tuesday, the minister will debate with the House about the damage treatment of the quakes. A briefing follows a briefing with energy experts.

The Groningen gas field is operated by the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV (NAM), a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil with each company owning a 50% share.[3] The field accounts for 50% of the natural gasproduction in the Netherlands, the other 50% being supplied by around 300 smaller gas fields, most of them located offshore in the North Sea.

EXTRACT: LONDON — An independent Dutch safety panel has found that the operators of Europe’s largest natural gas field, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil, as well as the Dutch government, for years ignored the dangers posed by earthquakes in the field. In a report published on Wednesday, the Dutch Safety Board, a government-financed but independent organization, concluded that “the parties concerned failed to act with due care for citizen safety in Groningen” related to the earthquakes caused by gas extraction.

Like other residents of the Groningen region near The Netherlands’ North Sea coast, the retired art teacher was used to the subtle tremors caused by decades of extraction at Europe’s largest gas field. But nobody was prepared for the magnitude 3.6 earthquake that struck after dark on Aug. 16, 2012, assured by both state and project officials that there was nothing to fear. Half a decade later, Treffers is still reeling. His claim for damages to his brick home, which he had to gut and retrofit with quake-resistant framing, is one of 80,000 that have been filed with the company tapping the underground riches, a venture between Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. known as NAM.

“Groningen gas has always been a source of pride to the Dutch,” Prime Minister Mark Rutte said in the region last month. Those days are gone. What was once a blessing is now an expensive curse. Aside from slashing the amount of gas NAM can pump, the state has set aside 1.2 billion euros to compensate residents, including for emotional damages, and the final bill will almost certainly swell. Officials are also considering criminal charges against NAM executives for posing a threat to human life, which would be a first in the Netherlands, where Shell is triple the size of the next biggest company.

SHELL BLOG

Comments

Bogus Group: Further to my post on this blog, 28 August'17, there may be some interest an an article in yesterday's Upstream "Trial set for clash of LNG players".

TotallyHackedOff: Shell - as I am sure with many global super majors- is heavy with narcissists at all levels. Lots of people like Trump rollicking around- get in their way and you’re a gonner! See you later Rexy baby!

TotallyHackedOff: In reply to Bonus Group and Another Concerned Employee- its clear reading from your posts that Shell and BG shared many business cultural similarities making the tie-up an obvious one. I know of a few Shell employees who resigned, joined BG and are now back at Shell again- it stinks of a plant/trojan horse ending! It is well known that Shell has an 'inner circle' and if you find yourself outside that as many of the technical folk do, you don't stand a chance. Its all a bit wink, wink nudge, nudge. I even remember one manager (now a VP of something) telling me how I needed to 'read between the lines' which made me think it was all a load of bollocks and how the politically adept arse kissers rose through the ranks blissfully unaware of how their actions impacted their colleagues. The alpha men and women were all the same- keen to get ahead at anyones expense and doing secret backroom deals. Its one ginormous playground and the bullies will win as they are keeping the other bullies in place.

Bonus Group: 'Another Concerned Employee'talks about Shell's 'scooby-doo' business priciples, BG's were just as opaque. If you asked someone in HR about policy you would be deflected to 'The Portal' and left to fend for yourself. Often the policies conflicted with each other and had no foundation in law. This was reflected in the hypocritical management 'do as I say, not as I do' policy.
The closest experience most of BG Senior Management had of oil rigs and platforms was reading about them in comic books. The Brasil Asset was a complete shambles with its 'Simple Simon' approach to geoscience and cappuccino lifestyle. Unfortunately, most of these overpaid sociopaths migrated to Shell and are waiting, mouth's open for their next bonus. Shell must be trying hard to find ways to cover up grotesque errors in reserves booked by this Asset. Hopefully, Shell's assurance process is better than BG's with its £2Bn failure.

Yet Another Concerned Employee: Carillion, for whom the bell tolls! Remarkable that a Shell Executive should have a finger in this pie with its aggressive auditing practices. More 'pulling the wool' over the shareholder's eyes. Were the auditors asleep at the wheel when this was happening? There should be a full investigation, and those responsible made accountable. Perhaps, sunny Brunei is a safe haven? I wonder what the extradition treaties between the UK and Brunei are?

Another Concerned Employee: Shell HR finds it easy to overlook its fake scooby doo business principles whenever it suits them. A number of staff implicit in OPL and the spin doctors trying desperately to cover up the crisis are still on payroll. It won't surprise anyone that Ceri was one of Brinded's loyal lapdogs during his dictatorship. Also no surprise she landed such a sweet job in Brunei.

Concerned Employee: Not sure if you know but..
Cerie Powell - ex EVP exploration now MD Brunei Shell Petroleum was a non exec director of Carillion (now in liquidation). She resigned once she was demoted to Brunei in 2016 (?) but given the news around the legacy issues involving Carillion, should she really hold a senior position in Shell Group ?

Bonus Group: It is understandable that a niche now exists in the market for a company similar to BG Group, but for Neptune Energy to set its aim at emulating and becoming like BG is nothing short of horrifying. Why anyone should wish to recreate the inept management, twisted HR policies and rancid technical half truths of BG Group in order to deceive the shareholders is beyond comprehension. If they do, then the Serious Fraud Office should be on the alert. Sammy 'two pools', whose past remit included selling Enterprise Oil to Shell, rather than ENI is made of sterner stuff. That said, his nuclear ambitions did fall somewhat short of those of Kim Yong Un. Let's wish Neptune Energy a long, scandal free future and greater integrity than bungling BG with its House of Cards and flamboyant ineptitude.

Bogus Group: Following the acquisition of Engie the Financial Times headline “Neptune Energy sets aim on being the next BG Group” may have sent a chill through some. To think there could possibly be a rise from the ashes is an alarming prospect
However there was some comfort in the company chairman statement “We have the opportunity to take the time to get it right”.
Hopefully this means their Ethics and Compliance foundation will actually be more than just another policy open to distortion by misconduct.

Bill Campbell: Is the New York City case against Oil Companies justifiable or just hot air?

Many, if not all prestigious US scientific journals estimate largest source of air pollution in US is caused by vehicle emissions. Current estimates that US has some 260 million automobiles and 11 million trucks. It is the daily emissions from these vehicles that are the cause of scientific concern. But anybody visiting Florida, and following a construction truck, will be familiar with black smoke in copious amounts emitting from the vertical exhaust pipe, sometimes it's so bad it can restrict your vision but Florida is not the only state of the US that does not require emission control, there are many more, monitoring for example (like a UK vehicle MOT) is not legally required or carried out.

So perhaps De Blasio should start suing these delinquent states.

In any case, I find the whole matter ludicrous in a country, where their President claims that human activity is not related in any way to global warming and appoints a head of EPA who is also so inclined (a man described by NY Times as an arsonist in the Fire Station) so why does Shell et all not call as witnesses in their defence the current EPA Director, or otherwise why does De Blasio not start by suing those states that allow millions of vehicles to pollute the atmosphere daily.
Bill

Bonus Group: Further to my last post on this blog. Sound Energy have now arranged a slap-up bean feast for their shareholders to be held on 15th February at Grace Hall, Leadenhall Street, London. Drinks at Carriages afterwards. Dress is formal so don't expect too energetic a food fight. Attendees must pay for their own tickets! All will be revealed about the new Coro strategy. You may recall that Sound shareholders will receive Coro shares as a result of the divestment of Sound's Italian assets. The question is whether Sound shareholders will end up in the soup.

Bonus Group: There are rumblings in the ether about Rockhopper Exploration plc having failed to perform Due Diligence with integrity in respect of their purchase of the Italian focused company Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG) in 2014, and in particular MOG's asset, the Ombrina Mare oil field.
Following the decision in February 2016 by the Ministry of Economic Development not to award the company a production concession covering the Ombrina Mare field, the company has considered its legal options with regard to obtaining damages and compensation from the Republic of Italy for breaching the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT).
Could this have anything to do with the sudden and unexpected departure of Rockhopper's Chief Operating Officer, one 'Good Time' Fiona MacAuley? Fiona, a Chartered Geologist, started her career with Mobil North Sea Limited in 1985 and has subsequently held key roles in a number of leading oil and gas firms across large mid and small cap E&Ps including BG and Hess.
Fiona is now Chief Executive Officer of Echo Energy plc where Stephen Whyte (also ex BG) is a Non-Executive Director, previously having been Chairman of Sound Energy. Fiona will also become a Non-Executive Director of Saffron Energy plc. It is proposed that Saffron acquires Sound Energy's portfolio of Italian interests and permits through the acquisition by Saffron of Sound Energy Holdings Italy Limited (SEHIL). SEHIL holds all of Sound Energy's Italian oil and gas interests through its own wholly owned subsidiary, Apennine Energy SpA (APN). It is proposed that Saffron will be renamed Coro Energy plc.
This is yet another 'reverse takeover' by the Sound Energy/Echo Energy Team. The share options for the directors are raining on them like confetti. Could there be bonuses in store for the Directors of this association of companies where the paint is never allowed to dry?
Plenty of 'smoke and mirrors' and wool being pulled over the shareholders' eyes in this can of worms.

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