The Brexit Threat to British Security

Perhaps the recent attack on a former Russian agent in a quiet English country town will be enough to show Brexiteers that a “Britain alone” is a “Britain vulnerable.” But it is also possible that by the time UK nationalists discard their ideological blinders, it will be too late.

LONDON – Some moments in history are steeped in irony. To glimpse a current example, look no further than the United Kingdom. As the Brexit negotiations with the European Union approach a tipping point – this month’s European Council meeting – the British government is seeking its scorned European partners’ help in its dispute with Russia over the attempted murder of the former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England.

But even before the brazen attack on the Skripals – targeted with the Soviet-designed nerve agent Novichok – Prime Minister Theresa May had become more forthright in highlighting the values and interests shared by the UK and the EU, including with regard to security and defense. Indeed, at last month’s Munich Security Conference, she proposed a “deep and special partnership” on such matters.

In May’s preferred scenario, the UK would continue to participate fully in EU agencies like EUROPOL, while upholding European Arrest Warrants (EAWs). Moreover, the UK would maintain its involvement in existing and future EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions, and coordinate with the EU on sanction regimes under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).

Charles Tannock points out that the recent “brazen” attack on a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal and his daughter in a quaint country town in the UK has vindicated his belief that a “Britain alone” is a “Britain vulnerable.” Theresa May has realised how crucial it is to forge strong security ties with the EU after Brexit, because Britain will need to cooperate with its allies to counter “the kind of external threat that the attack represented.” Already in 2015 Britain had in its strategic defence and security review identified four major threats and challenges to its national security: terrorism and extremism; state-based threats; cyber threats and the erosion of the rules-based international order. The seismic shocks of the last two years – the Brexit referendum and Trump’s election election in 2016 – should not change Britain’s assessment of its security cooperation with the EU. Even before the nerve agent attack in Salisbury, May had during the Munich Security Conference in February proposed a “deep and special partnership” with the EU after Brexit, seeking a treaty on military, intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation to bolster security and defence. She also called on EU allies not to let “rigid institutional restrictions” get in the way of a post-Brexit partnership, saying there would be “damaging real-world consequences.” May feared that rejecting “her generous offer of close security cooperation would... amount to putting ‘political doctrine and ideology’ first.” The author highlights the irony of the Brexit vote – casting doubt on the European Project, Britain leaves the EU. Doing so, it undermines the bloc’s unity, “causing serious damage to European security, all for the sake of political doctrine and ideology” – to regain souvereignty and border control, riding Britain of EU laws etc. Many leaders of EU members recognise that the UK, which has the second biggest defence budget in NATO, has resources and expertise that the bloc would come to sorely miss. Yet others say that dropping out of the single market and refusing to adhere to judgements of the European court of justice (ECJ) means Britain would no longer be able to participate in joint institutions such as EUROPOL, European Arrest Warrants (EAWs), the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) etc. The question is whether Britain and its European allies can resolve their differences. Britain would “respect” the role of the ECJ, when it participated in EU agencies while also having its “sovereign legal order,” according to May. Another thorny issue is the border between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Hardline Brexiters like Michael Gove and Owen Paterson had made a “reckless statement” about “doing away with the Good Friday Agreement, which has delivered two decades of peace to Northern Ireland.” Another hardline Brexiter, Liam Fox, a former defence secretary, now trade minister maintains that “the only external relationship the UK needs to buttress its security is NATO, led by the United States.” The author says Fox, a believer in the special relationship with the US, has unrealistic confidence in Trump, “who seems to have more contempt for allies than for adversaries like Russia’s Vladimir Putin.” In view of Trump’s fickleness, “any breakdown in security cooperation between the UK and the EU will have dire consequences.” In recent years Russia has shown its aggressive and nationalistic stance towards the West. The massive Zapad war exercises in Kaliningrad – an enclave between Poland and Lithuania – last February was Putin’s display of Russian hardpower, not to mention his ability to conduct “hybrid warfare” using cyber-attacks, proxies, propaganda and fake news etc. The exercises sent a warning to NATO that Russia can deploy a large number of troops at short notice, raising alarm among the three Baltic states with a sizable Russian speaking population. Indeed, there is fear that this security cooperation might not be realised, and that “it will be too late” to change, because by the time Britain sees Brexit through the prism of its allies – “as a selfish and destructive act of betrayal” – it might be too late. So, even if May “seems to hold a more realistic view of the security risks Brexit poses, others in her party remain obstinate.”

Total and utter baloney? We are exiting the EU, full stop. Should the remainers manage to convince a majority of U.K. voters we might eventually make a renewed application to rejoin the EU, but given that this will imply the absence of any rebates, embracing the Shengen area and adopting the Euro, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Europe knows quite well that the U.K. is making an extremely generous offer to cooperate on security matters and they can choose to take it up, or not.

"Perhaps the recent attack on a former Russian agent in a quiet English country town will be enough to remove the ideological blinders from more Brexiteers, showing them that a “Britain alone” is a “Britain vulnerable.” "

Maj. Skripal was a British agent for whose services the British government rewarded him with a million pound house and a BMW. He was never a 'Russian agent'.

The author is assuming that Russia, on the eve of a national election and under severe pressure of Western sanctions, chose to murder Maj. Skripal in public eight years after granting him a full pardon.

If Britain is vulnerable to anything, it is to people like Charles Tannock, who seem unable to distinguish their elbows from a common pineapple. God help us all.

"The author is assuming that Russia, on the eve of a national election and under severe pressure of Western sanctions, chose to murder Maj. Skripal in public eight years after granting him a full pardon."

I'm afraid it is not only the author of this piece that makes that assumption. Don't look now, but the British government has made the same assumption and has retaliated against Russia on that basis and plans to continue to do so. What is more, the author is absolutely right about Brexit being an act of betrayal.

You cannot expect that an act that you take (Brexit), which threatens the economic security of the Union and then, as you are watched by the members of that union, openly predict and even hope for its collapse, that you can still have a deep and special partnership of any kind with said union. Life doesn't work like that. Not even in little old exceptionalist Britain. The EU has put a kindly face on things hoping that they are not witnessing what, in fact, they ARE actually witnessing. Angela Merkel knows this and she said as much when she said that the EU could no longer rely on its old friends. The spell is already broken. The only question is now, what can we rebuild?; and that would be best accomplished by remaining in the EU. If we are in the EU, we will have what we need. Outside we will become a mistrusted, treacherous, third party. There will be future "cod wars" amongst other many other varied fights and we will lose most if not all of them. The potential threat from outside actors is even greater, as we have made ourselves of scant value to the US too by leaving the EU.

At the moment, we are behaving in an unbelievably stupid manner, and I think most thinking Brits know it.

How's the weather in Moscow, or wherever your head is in the sand. Russian Military Nerve Agent, Ex-Russian spay, Current Russian President-for-life explains those who would serve poison to his country will be poisoned themselves.

Right. I get it. If you don't like the suspect, there is then no need for any sort of due process, is there?

As it happens I do think Russia is behind this, but I'm not yet sure how. Nor can you be. What I appreciate are law, order and common sense. Untempered people have no business conducting foreign relations.

I like your suggestion that I think it was a fat guy sitting on his couch in New Jersey watdonnit.

But seriously, no, I don't believe for a minute that you are responsible. :)

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