All 22 fighters scheduled to compete on tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson card will be hitting the scales live from the Chicago Theatre in, you guessed it, Chicago starting at 5 p.m. EST. Luckily for you, we will be hosting a video of the weigh-ins RIGHT HERE. I know, right? The things we do to ensure that you guys are happy.

Anyway, the weigh-ins kick off in just a few minutes, so get in here for all the action!

The UFC flyweights comprise the smallest division — both in size, and in numbers — but they’ll get a prominent showcase this Saturday at UFC on FOX 6, as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. So how do Mighty Mouse and the Magician stack up against the rest of their 125-pound competition? Analyzing an entire UFC weight class with a point-in-time assessment allows us to see how fighters might perform against each other, even though they may not meet in the Octagon for a long time (if ever). And since every fight starts standing up, we’ll also start with striking.

The Analysis:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head-striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division, as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect which fighters connect with the most powerful strikes. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter has landed in their matches*, divided by the number of power head strikes landed to see who does the most damage per strike. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through UFC 155 on December 29th, 2012. Many of these fighters competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.

Now that we know how to interpret the chart, let’s see which fighters stand out…

If you’ve been watching the NFL playoffs on FOX over the last couple weekends, you’ve surely noticed the frequent UFC promos throughout the broadcasts hyping a “World Title Fight” on January 26th between “Johnson and Dodson.” At no point is the word “flyweight” ever mentioned — because that would be a turnoff to casual fans, I guess? — and in most of the live promos I’ve seen, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson‘s first names aren’t even included. Basically, they’re hoping that the mere promise of a “title fight” will be enough to lure some football fans into tuning in this Saturday night, even if those viewers have no idea who the headliners are, or what belt they’ll be fighting for specifically.

It’s a problem, because TV ratings and buyrates are so closely tied to who’s headlining each event. Instead of perhaps making Rampage vs. Teixeira or Cerrone vs. Pettis the headliner, the UFC is choosing to keep things vague (“world title fight!” “Johnson!”) and hope for the best. We’ll see if that proves to be the right decision, or if the ratings will plunge compared to the strong showing of UFC on FOX 5. I know the UFC wants to pump up its budding flyweight division, but I can’t help wondering if they’re doing themselves a disservice when there’s so little heat around that weight class. Could they re-consider their “championship fight always gets the main event” policy down the road?

Since I’ve been thinking about this lately, I’ve decided to present my own rundown of which fights I’m actually looking forward to this weekend. If you see things differently, please hurl some abuse at me in the comments section. Let’s begin…

It may be a futile effort to draft up these Armchair Matchmakers given the chaos that injuries are creating at every turn these days, but God damn it, a comedic MMA website has to have its principles! So with that in mind, we decided to scour through the wreckage left behind by UFC 152 and provide some potential opponents for the UFC to consider when booking the night’s biggest winners down the line. Join us and voice your opinions in the comments section, won’t you?

Only time will tell if Jon Jones was correct in saying that if he put in a great performance at UFC 152, fans would forgive him for turning down Chael Sonnen as a last-minute replacement to the never-was UFC 151. He certainly did put in a great performance in defending his UFC light heavyweight championship Saturday night against Vitor Belfort.

Other than a tight arm bar attempt that Belfort snapped on from his guard early in the first round that looked to very nearly win the fight for the 10-1 underdog, Jones dominated the fight up through a fourth round Americana submission that earned him the win. Jones didn’t spend much time messing around on the feet before going for and scoring a take down in the first round.

After he withstood his arm being hyper extended and freed himself from Belfort’s hold, Jones went about methodically tagging the Brazilian with short elbows from inside his full guard, opening up a cut over The Phenom‘s right eye that bled for the rest of the fight.

When they were on their feet, Jones kept his distance, landing with front leg side kicks to Belfort. Vitor’s best chance at winning this fight always seemed to be if he could manage to unload his fast hands in the type of flurry that smoked Wanderlei Silva over a decade ago, or knocked out Rich Franklin and Yoshihiro Akiyama more recently.

Belfort landed some good single shots, including a couple head kicks, but he was never able to pull the trigger on combinations that could have possibly backed Jones up or hurt him. Belfort mostly let Jones walk him backwards before getting taken down, as he did years ago in his second fight against Randy Couture, without making the champion pay for trying to get inside.

A beautiful front leg side kick to the ribs from Jones in the third pretty much put the nail in the fight’s coffin for Belfort.

Handling our liveblog for the UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort pay-per-view broadcast is beloved CagePotato feature writer Jim Genia, who will be stacking round-by-round results after the jump beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and tell us what you’re drinking in the comments section.

You know that saying “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure”? Well, such is the case with UFC 151’s trash (which coincidentally resembles the remnants of a totaled Bentley) and UFC 152’s treasure. And those of us who were smart enough to recognize a curse when we saw one and purchase our tickets accordingly will reap the rewards of the 151 fallout by being treated to two title fights on the very same card. Suck it, over-saturation!

This Saturday night, the GAE will attempt to go where no other MMA blog/website/”professional MMA gambler”(my favorite) has gone before, a perfect 4-0 generating plus money dating back to UFC 148. So follow us after the jump as we try to navigate through the good, the bad, and the ugly betting lines of UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort (courtesy of BestFightOdds).

I feel that the Spaniard will be able to get this fight to the mat and establish himself as the dominant fighter. Hovering around -225, the line is appealing when you examine how Kyle Noke has lost his last two UFC bouts coupled with how Charlie has found victory throughout his UFC career (Ed note: Except here). This fight falls into the good category for betting lines and Brenneman will find his way into my parlay as the well priced favorite here.

This isn’t to say Benavidez doesn’t deserve to be the clear favorite here; he does. He’s only lost twice in his career — both times by decision to current bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz — and has been consistently dominant in his fights since his last loss. Johnson’s record is less impressive of late. A suspect decision win over Miguel Torres was followed by a decision loss to Cruz, in which he was dominated so thoroughly that the aforementioned Torres would have been fired if he had tweeted about it. Since then, Johnson turned in a solid but not entirely impressive performance against the man with the best nickname in MMA which resulted in a draw marred by a scorekeeping controversy before finally putting to rest any doubt by defeating McCall three months later.

But while Johnson’s run hasn’t been as thrilling as Benavidez’s, he’s still a formidable challenge for any fighter. Aside from his two fights with McCall, he has fought opposition despite routinely giving up weight and reach advantages at bantamweight. He was tough enough to grit out the victory over Torres despite breaking his fibula in the second round. And despite getting outclassed by Cruz, he never let up the pace and continued to push forward. He learned from his mistakes against McCall and dominated their second meeting. Neither he nor Benavidez have ever been finished. Both appear to have limitless gas tanks, and fight at a speed that even a NASCAR driver on meth would admit is “fast.”