Humans Aren’t Going to Mars — or Anywhere Else — Without More Money

American human space exploration is impossible with NASA’s current budget.

The committee tasked with examining NASA’s role in human space flight delivered that finding today while offering a mix of relatively exciting options if the agency can secure an extra $3 billion per year.

The report, posted to the Office of Science and Technology Policy website, does not chart any new territory, but it’s unusually clear about the scale and nature of NASA’s problems. The committee said what needed to be said in the interest of a reality-based space program.

“You shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the basic statement, which is that the path [NASA] is going on is going nowhere,” said David Mindell, a science and technology historian at MIT who lead a different report on NASA’s future last year. “It’s an utter rejection of the Bush plan because it’s unfundable, unbuildable and dangerous. ”

The Augustine committee, as it’s known because of its head, Norm Augustine, was tasked in May with delivering the Obama administration options for human space exploration. Industry watchers saw the committee as a way to rethink NASA’s Constellation program, which promised to return Americans to the moon en route to Mars. Over the past couple of years, two things have become increasingly clear: NASA’s funding for human exploration didn’t match its goals; and the gap between the shuttle’s retirement (originally slated for 2010) and Constellation being ready to shoulder the load will be far longer than the two years originally planned.

While reports like Mindell’s had pointed out some of these problems, which were bandied about within the aerospace community, the new summary report is a wake-up call delivered to the very highest levels of government that NASA needs new direction and more money.

“The Committee finds that no plan compatible with the FY 2010 budget profile permits human exploration to continue in any meaningful way,” the committee wrote.

On the issue of the gap, many had been holding fast to the notion that it might be shortened with minor variations or small-scale changes in the program. The Committee did not agree.

“Under current conditions, the gap in U.S. ability to launch astronauts into space will stretch to at least seven years,” they wrote. “The Committee did not identify any credible approach employing new capabilities that could shorten the gap to less than six years.”

Only continuing to send the shuttle into orbit for years after its intended retirement could close the gap. But that could also take valuable funds away from new technology development or exploration.

Though the committee offered a series of options for future exploration, including attempting to go directly to Mars and going to the moon on the way to Mars, they were clearly most excited about a plan they termed the “Flexible Path.” It would focus on humans flying around space farther from Earth but without landing on Mars or the moon.

“The Flexible Path represents a different type of exploration strategy. We would learn how to live and work in space, to visit small bodies, and to work with robotic probes on the planetary surface,” they wrote. “It would provide the public and other stakeholders with a series of interesting ‘firsts’ to keep them engaged and supportive. Most important, because the path is flexible, it would allow many different options as exploration progresses, including a return to the moon’s surface, or a continuation to the surface of Mars.”

Commercial space advocates are pleased with the report, too. It provides companies like SpaceX with major backing for their efforts to completely take over low-earth orbit launches.

“Based on not just this, but what the Augustine commission members were saying in their public hearings and other public statements that the committee members were making, the message was coming across loud and clear that now is the time to hand over human spaceflight commercially,” said John Gedmark, executive director of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. “But obviously from our perspective, it’s great to see this come out in print.”

Because the report is a summary of a longer version that will be delivered later this month, the Office of Science and Technology Policy and NASA both declined to comment on the report.

The White House reiterated President Obama’s support for space exploration, but also punted until the full report is out.

“The president has on numerous occasions confirmed his commitment to human space exploration, and the goal of ensuring that the nation is on a vigorous and sustainable path to achieving our boldest aspirations in space,” Nicholas Shapiro, a White House spokesman, wrote in an e-mail to Wired.com. “Once we receive the final report, we will release it to the public and move swiftly to review the options put forth by the Committee.”