Monday, March 31, 2008

After a gloomy weekend, don't look for much sunshine this week. This Monday morning, we are stuck in the same cold air wedge setup from the weekend. That will keep us cloudy with occasional showers moving through the area today. We'll begin to see the cold air wedge erode this afternoon with warmer air moving in from the coast. That will give us a warmer day tomorrow with highs near 70 to the low 70s. However, rain is still in the forecast tomorrow with showers and storms expected in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

And if you're new to the area, just ask your neighbor whats in store for you this summer.High pressure to the north is keeping us under a cooler dome of air and moisture overriding this dome continues to keep clouds overhead and areas of precipitation falling. This wedge of cold air is expected to diminish slowly on Monday from east to west but still have a jacket handy especially if you're spending time anywhere between the Triad and Triangle! Here's more in today's video blog:

Saturday, March 29, 2008

After reaching 81 degrees at RDU Friday, we start our weekend on the cooler side. A cold front passed through the state overnight, ushering in northeasterly breezes.Upper level winds will steer some moisture over this cold air, keeping us on the cloudy side with a possibility of showers from time to time. Highs today will only reach the 50s with NE winds of 10-15mph.Cloudy tonight with a chance of showers, lows near 40.

The forecast for the remainder of the weekend will be continued cool temperatures and a chance for showers.Monday shows improvement as far as temperatures as our cold air wedge breaks down and highs quickly rebound to the lower 60s.By midweek we'll see highs in the lower 70s tempered by a cold front that could bring some measureable rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

We mentioned in our Weather on the Ones video blog a link for the Naval Observatory. If you are a moonwatching fan it might be difficult to check out the skies tonight, but this site has pictures of what the moon looks like today as well as other great information!

Friday, March 28, 2008

Today marks 24 years since the largest and most devastating tornado outbreak in North Carolina. The March 28th 1984 outbreak killed 57 people in North and South Carolina and injured another 800. More on this outbreak can be found at the following link to the National Weather Service (who supplied the graphic we used in today's video blog):http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19840328/

While we do not have that danger today, we do have a heightened fire danger. SW winds of 10-20 miles an hour, paired with low relative humidities and dry surface conditions make this a day that wildfires can develop.There is a burn ban for all counties east of the mountains today, so any plans for outdoor burning will have to be put off. In addition, if you see a wildfire, please contact local authorities immediately.We'll quickly go to jacket weather for the weekend. More on that in today's video blog:

Also, remember that if you would like to become a volunteer for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network (CoCoRaHS) and take part in collecting weather data check out this link for more information: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/cocorahs.php

It has been 24 years since the worst severe outbreak in recorded weather history for North Carolina. The tornado outbreak began on the afternoon of March 28, 1984 in South Carolina and continued into eastern North Carolina through the evening. Several F3 and F4 tornadoes were reported. Fifty-seven people were killed in the Carolinas including 42 in North Carolina. An estimated 800 people were injured.

Read more about the Carolinas Outbreak of 1984 by clicking to the following link from the National Weather Service --

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 are in the forecast today and Friday, but that is likely to come to and end this weekend. A stationary front located across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia today will sink to the south as a cold front Friday. It will pass through our area late Friday night and Saturday ushering in a big weekend cool down.

We'll start Saturday morning in the upper 50s and may drop to the low 50s by the afternoon. Sunday's highs will also only warm to the 50s. Look for mostly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles both days making for a dreary weekend. Any rain will not add up to much.

Monday, March 24, 2008

This week is shaping up to be a quiet week weather-wise. Today's highs in the low to mid 50s are just a little more than 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. We saw a few sprinkles of rain around the Triangle early this morning and light snow was reported in the Triad. We'll have another chance for a few showers late this afternoon and evening, but that looks to be our only rain chances through the work week.

Lows will drop to near freezing Tuesday morning, but that will be the coldest of the week. A gradual warm up is expected beginning Tuesday afternoon with highs near 60. We'll be back in the 70s by the end of the week. Some highs may even reach close to 80 by Friday in the Sandhills.

Our first weekend of spring starts out warm but ends on a chilly note with a cool Easter forecast. More in your Weather on the Ones Video blog:

You also saw in the blog our teaser for the National Weather Service's need for weather spotters. I mentioned earlier this month that CoCoRaH S is coming into service with the NWS in NC and will need the help of many volunteers. For more information on how you can help not only the Weather Service but those of us who report and research the weather please check out this link to the NWS:

Friday, March 21, 2008

Looks like a calm and warm end to our work week as high pressure shifts to our east, allowing for a more southerly wind flow and highs in the upper 60s today.We have more about that in your Weather on the Ones Video Blog:

These pictures are from the National Weather Service in Raleigh. 10 years ago North carolina endured a series of severe storms which produced 10 tornadoes, 46 reports of damaging hail, 9 reports of wind damage, 27 injuries and sadly, 2 fatalities. More about this outbreak is available through the National Weather Service at this link:http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19980320/

Have a pleasant Friday and a safe holiday weekend.Pati Darak,News 14 Carolina

Thursday, March 20, 2008

The cold front that moved through North Carolina last night through early this morning did not produce as much rain as we hoped for our part of the state. Here's a look at some rain totals from around the state --

Asheville: 1.18"

Charlotte: 0.72"

Greensboro: 0.41"

Chapel Hill: 0.27"

Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.19"

Lumberton: 0.18"

Wilmington: 0.18"

Raleigh (NCSU): 0.14"

Fayetteville: 0.13"

Goldsboro: 0.08"

Raleigh-Durham: 0.08"

Windy weather will continue behind that front today. Since we did not see much rain last night, our ground is still dry. Combine that with today's wind and falling relative humidities, our fire danger will increase into the afternoon. Today is not the day for any outdoor burning.

The winds should diminish late this afternoon and evening. Look for pleasant weather into the weekend. Our next chance for rain should come early next week as low pressure develops off the Carolina coast. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on exactly how that will evolve and what impacts it will have on our weather. For more on that, check out this morning's video blog update posted below.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

A front moving through North Carolina late today and tonight still looks to bring about 0.25" to 0.5" of rain to our area. The best chance for rain should come between 7pm and midnight. The Storm Prediction Center still has all of the Carolinas outlined with a "slight risk" for severe weather. There's a chance a storm could become strong with damaging winds.

For more on tonight's chance for rain, the severe weather threat, and another chance for rain early next week, watch this morning's video blog posted below --

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

A storm system threatening the Deep South with severe weather today will bring the chance for rain to the Carolinas tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has forecast a moderate risk of severe weather for portions of Texas and Louisiana today. That is where strong storms and even some tornadoes could develop through the day.As the front that is producing that stormy weather heads our way, we do not expect a widespread severe weather outbreak. However, we cannot rule out a few strong storms along the front. The SPC has placed all of the Carolinas and surrounding areas under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

The good news out of this system will be more welcomed rain for the state. On average, we expect about 0.5" with most of the rain coming late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For more on the storms, take a look at this morning's video blog posted below:

Monday, March 17, 2008

North Carolina missed out on the worst of the weather this weekend, but it was a much different story for our neighbors to the south in South Carolina where numerous tornadoes were reported Saturday afternoon and evening.

Two of the South Carolina tornadoes have been rated as EF-3 tornadoes by the National Weather Service. Here's a look at some damage done by one of those EF-3 tornadoes in the small town of Prosperity, which is located northwest of Columbia.

I spent much of Saturday afternoon watching radar of the supercell thunderstorms that produced these tornadoes. No doubt, these were very unusual storms for the Carolinas. It seemed like I was watching radar of storms in Oklahoma instead of South Carolina.

This weekend's tornado outbreak may bring back memories to some of the Carolina's Outbreak of 1984. On March 28, 1984 tornadoes ripped across the northern Midlands of South Carolina into Sandhills and eastern North Carolina. That outbreak was even more intense than Saturday's with several F3 and F4 tornadoes reported in North Carolina. Fifty-seven people were killed during that outbreak across the Carolinas.

Looking ahead, we do not see a set up for another large severe weather event this week, but some strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday ahead of a cold front moving across the state. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed all of the Carolinas under a "slight risk" for severe weather on Wednesday.

For more on Saturday's storms and the threat for more storms on Wednesday, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Yesterday's weather proved to be deadly for one community in Georgia, as tornadic storms rolled through Floyd county in the northern portion of that state.

The severe storms moved into NC in earnest on Saturday from late afternoon well into the nighttime hours. While there were no confirmed tornadoes in NC, there were a number of reported funnel clouds in southern portions of the state.

Some of the reported damage in NC:

* Golf ball sized hail reported in Orrum (Robeson county) ,

* Penny sized hail near Fremont in Wayne county, Quarter sized hail in Wilmington, North Topsail Beach and near Seven Lakes in Moore county.

Winds caused a number of downed trees throughout the state, some areas affected included the Laurel Hill area of Scotland county, Raynham in Robeson county, Roseboro in Sampson county and possible structural damage to buildings in Pender county.

Fortunately we have a calmer day today. Breezy northerly winds are being drawn south around high pressure centered far to our north. This feature will be the predominant weather maker for us through Wednesday, first keeping us on the cooler side but as it shifts eastward into the week it will combine with the upper level jet stream to bring us milder temperatures.

A potent storm system is being forecast by the weather models to make its way eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast. This will bring another possibility for much needed rain and some thunderstorms Wednesday.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Severe storms possible across NC later today. **Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of NC into a Moderate Risk for strong to severe storms later today (as of 1pm)** More about this in your Weather on the Ones Video Blog...

As if Atlanta needed more excitement...basketball in overtime at the Georgia Dome, folks in town for conventions, and then the roar of a tornado.

The national Weather Service has verified the damage and confirmed that an EF2 tornado with top winds estimated at 130 mph came through downtown Atlanta Friday evening, causing heavy damage to the Georgia Dome, nearby hotels and attractions, even the CNN center. It also damaged many homes . The last weekend of meteorological winter is turning out to be far too much like Spring for our friends to the South.

Its been a very warm week in North Carolina. While not record highs, we have had a number of days in the 70s. The warm weather will take a spring break of its own for a day or two as a system moving eastward through the Southeast and Tennessee Valley will bring cooler air in on Sunday, but first it will trigger a round of strong to severe storms to NC. The Storm Prediction Center (as of 10 am Saturday) has most of NC in a slight risk for storms which could produce damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

Timing for this appears to be for later this afternoon into the evening hours for Central NC, a little later as you progress eastward toward I-95 and the coast.

Your Weather on the Ones video blog has a discussion about our risk for this afternoon through overnight tonight.

On Sunday we'll see temperatures closer to 50 but we'll also have some sunshine. It'll be on the breezy side with northerly winds of about 10-20mph.

The work week starts out with sunshine but we do have another chance for storms Wednesday.

Be sure to stay with the Weather on the Ones team as we get into these storms later today, and after the storm passes, we'd appreciate your storm reports and even your pictures if you've seen damage. You can send your information to us at weather@news14.com . Be sure to include your city and county information in your report.

Friday, March 14, 2008

What a warm week we've had this week! Spring is just around the corner and we've had the warmth and stormy weather to get you ready for the season change.

Today we have brisk southerly winds and when combined with low relative humidities it makes for an increased fire threat so outdoor burning is discouraged today. If you spot a wildfire, please contact local authorities immediately.

Our warm temperatures will depart briefly over the weekend after a round of strong to severe storms progged for Saturday. We discuss that in our weather video blog.

When it comes to reporting the weather, we're all one big family of information. That said, the National Weather Service needs your help. Beginning in September, North Carolina will join the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network - CoCoRaHS. This new program will help meteorologists, researchers, the media, and others see and study the variability of precipitation across North Carolina. The accumulated precipitation data will be available to anyone using the web.

If you want more information about this program, please check the following link:

The Weather on the Ones forecast team will continue to monitor the possibility of severe weather for the weekend. Join us for updates to your weekend and 7-day forecast and remember that your forecast is also available anytime at news14.com.

If you experience severe weather over the weekend, wait til it passes and then tell us about it. Email us your report and / or pictures to weather@news14.com

15 years ago today the lowest pressure ever recorded in Raleigh was set when the barometer dropped to 29.60". That happened as the intense low pressure making up the 1993 Superstorm that some people have called the "Storm of the Century" tracked over Raleigh. The storm dumped 5.7" of snow on Greensboro, but that was nothing like what the mountains experienced. Our chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson was covering weather in western North Carolina at the time and has quite a few stories to tell about this storm. Mount Mitchell reported 50" of snow and a 101mph wind gust was recorded on Flattop Mountain in North Carolina.

The storm was not isolated to North Carolina. It produced tornadoes in Florida and record snowfall from parts of the Deep South through the Northeast. A report from the Climate Prediction Center in 1993 attributed 270 deaths in the United States to the storm. That is a higher death toll than hurricanes Hugo and Andrew combined. Nineteen deaths were reported in North Carolina.

Here are a few links with more information on the Superstorm of 1993 --

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

In yesterday's blog post, I mentioned how we can often see big swings in March weather. Just one example of that is the large range between our record highs and lows for March 12 at RDU. The record high for this date is 90 set in 1990. The record low is 18 set in 1969.

While we don't expect to see a big swing in our temperatures over the next several days, we could see a change from the current quiet weather pattern to a chance for strong storms by the weekend. There is still some uncertainty to exactly how things will play out for Saturday, but some computer models are showing a very unstable atmosphere over North Carolina Saturday afternoon. If that does unfold, it could lead to very strong thunderstorms developing over our region.

The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined much of the Carolinas for the possibility of severe weather on Saturday --

The forecast should become a little more certain to the chance for storms as the weekend draws near, so be sure to stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates over the coming days. In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful early spring like weather.... 70s are in the forecast for Thursday and Friday!

For more on Saturday's storm threat, check out this morning's video blog update posted below.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

The weather of March is often compared to either a lion or lamb. With the changing seasons, March does feature wild swings in the weather from stormy conditions to quiet, comfortable early spring conditions. This week, we find ourselves in the midst of a "lamb" weather pattern. Lots of folks will be catching spring fever by the end of the week when afternoon temperatures will hit the low 70s.

Our next chance for rain looks to come on Saturday. Will that signal a return to more "lion" like weather? Stay tuned.... you can bet there are more weather changes ahead through the second half of March.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

What a difference a day makes! Saturday morning we were waking up to temperatures in the 60s, tornado watches and scattered showers and storms. Then a cold front crossed state and ushered in colder, drier air which raced through the state with gusts well over 40 mph! Some reported gusts in central NC were:Duke Forest (Orange county): 51mphFort Bragg: 53mphRocky Mount: 44mph, Fayetteville: 53mph, Raleigh: 52mph.

While we did not see snow (or even abundant rain) maybe that was a good thing, as brisk winds combined with wet soils led to a number of trees toppling over throughout the state. Many areas did see some measureable rainfall on Saturday in association with morning showers and storms. Most rainfall was far less than an inch.

Our drought monitor for this week continues to show improving conditions for our exceptional drought situation. We continue to see fewer counties under the most severe drought classification but this has been a 2-week trend. We still need to monitor our water useage very carefully.

There is not much rain activity in the forecast for the SE United states today, as high pressure takes control. This means sunshine and calmer winds for North Carolina and a good deal of the southeast. It also means nearly clear skies overnight tonight and cold temperatures!

We started out our Sunday in the 20s, but are expecting highs in the 50s for Sunday afternoon. West winds will average about 5-11mph.

Clear skies tonight, and much of the SE will see temperatures bottoming out in the 20s and 30s.

Monday the high shifts eastward. as it does we will see a shift in our winds to southerly which will warm us up into the 50s-60s for the start of the work week.It promises to be a calm and mild week with another possibility of showers coming our way Friday. Have a good week.

Saturday, March 08, 2008

We had an unsettled start to the weekend with a storm system which produced a few showers and storms for central and eastern NC this morning. Now a wind advisory remain through the daylight hours with possible sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 45 mph or more.

High pressure moves in tonight which will mean a slack in the winds and sunshine for Sunday.

Friday, March 07, 2008

Rain is on the way to North Carolina early this morning, and we are still looking for a good soaking this afternoon, tonight, and into early Saturday. We should be on track to pick up between 1" and 2" of rain during that period. Of course, that rain is much needed, but we are still somewhat concerned about the potential for severe weather overnight. The National Weather Service outlines the severe weather threat in their hazardous weather outlook posted below....

415 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT....

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST... WHERE A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT

..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MID DAY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT... COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN RETURN JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THIS OCCURS... A SQUALL LINE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD BE LIKELY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

IN ADDITION... STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT... AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF SO... A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY INFORMED OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE LOCAL MEDIA

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

Thursday, March 06, 2008

It's still looking like we are in for a soaking rainfall as we wrap up the week and head into the weekend. An area of low pressure will track just to our west late Friday bringing rain showers to our region by midday Friday. With rain in the forecast through Saturday morning, 1.5" to 2.0" of rain is possible.

We are now also looking for the potential for thunderstorms late Friday night and Saturday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of eastern North Carolina under a "slight risk" for severe weather late Friday into early Saturday.

I have more on this early weekend storm system in this mornings video blog update...

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Although Tuesday night's storms produced straight-line wind damage across much of North Carolina, the rain was a welcomed sight. A new record rainfall for March 4 was set when 2.0" fell at the Raleigh-Durham Airport.

Here's a look at other rainfall reports from around our area --

Chapel Hill: 1.60"

Goldsboro: 1.32"

Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.86"

Fayetteville: 0.75"

The 2" rainfall at RDU cut the rainfall deficit since January 1, 2007 to -8.83". Obviously, Tuesday night's rain helps some but more is needed. We should not have to wait too long for more rain. In fact, it's becoming more likely that we'll see a soaking rain Friday into Saturday. I have more details in this morning's video blog update....

Powerful thunderstorms caused numerous reports of wind damage across the Carolinas Tuesday night. Most of the reports came in the form of downed trees and powerlines. Here's a look at some of those reports passed along by the National Weather Service in our area from Tuesday evening --

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina today for the very latest updates with Weather on the Ones. If severe weather occurs in your neighborhood this afternoon or tonight, you can send your weather pictures and reports when it is safe to do so to weather@news14.com.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINACENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINASOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ONGOING STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA/FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS FIELDS WILL SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND AN EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Severe Weather Awareness Week is now underway in North Carolina. This is the week emergency preparedness officials like to remind folks about the dangers severe weather can pose to North Carolina residents. Severe weather can happen anytime, but it does happen more frequently during the upcoming spring months.

As we prepare for those more active months, it looks like we could very well have a round of severe weather this week. A potent storm system has already been making headlines with a couple tornadoes reported yesterday in Oklahoma and Kansas. Today, the area of severe weather is likely to be greater.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area including Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama for a moderate risk for severe storms today. Tomorrow, that threat moves to Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia.

The SPC has said this morning they may have to upgrade parts of the Carolinas to a moderate risk for severe weather, which is somewhat rare for our area. At this point, we cannot rule out the threat for tornadoes late tomorrow. Damaging winds from strong thunderstorms looks to be the biggest threat in our area. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will come toward Tuesday evening and Tuesday night for our area.

I have more on the chance for severe weather in North Carolina in this morning's video blog update....

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones and News 14 Carolina for the latest updates...

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Today marks the beginning of Severe Weather Awareness week in North Carolina. Of the following 4 storm elements, which one is *not* considered criteria for a severe storm?

a) Penny-sized or larger hailb) Frequent lightningc)Winds of at least 58 mphd) Produces a tornadoThe answer later in this blog.

We had a wonderful weekend so far, as yesterday featured abundant sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s. We also had rather breezy to windy conditions which when combined with a dry surface and low relative humidities brought about a heightened danger of forest fires . Its not as windy today, so we can concentrate on a nice Sunday and prepare for the possibility of severe weather on Tuesday.

We started out with high pressure to our north today and lows of about 10 degrees chillier than yesterday. RDU internation recorded a low of 32 degrees. By lunchtime we should be well on our way to high in the low to mid 60s for the afternoon.

Our current precipitation almanac shows a deficit since the beginning of 2007 of over 10-inches. Many counties this week were removed from the highest level of drought (exceptional). We had 64 counties last week, but have 39 this week. While this is encouraging news we still have significant drought throughout the state and need to watch our water useage carefully. One week's reduction in a number does not a trend make, so we just take it as good development and see if we continue this improvement.

Here's the surface map for Monday. We're watching one storm in particular thats developing along the cold front you see cutting the US in half from the Great Lakes to SW Texas. The "L", which is an area of low pressure over SW texas will be supported by a strong upper-level storm system and make a move eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

Precisioncast shows this developing storm as it produces rain and snow in the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Monday we'll have an increased windflow from the South which will tap into some Gulf and Atlantic moisture. That will enhance the fuel available for this approaching storm.

The Storm Prediction Center has been watching this storm possibility for the last week and has been issuing us advisories well in advance but today issued this map. Its advising us that a good deal of NC will be in a slight risk for strong to severe storms on Tuesday from the afternoon throughout the evening.

They also gave a breakdown which shows what part of the state in the slight risk area has what percentage of seeing a severe storm. The best risk is approximately from Charlotte and Greensboro eastward. Again, while this is today's advisory for Tuesday, that could always change so stay close to News 14 whether its via "Weather on the Ones" or our website for updates.

Tuesday's storms could being us some considerable rain. Possibly an inch to an inch and a quarter which would be very welcome in our drought. This is Wednesdays map which shows high pressure moving in behind the storm . We'll have a couple of quiet days before yet another chance for some showers. We'll keep you updated on that as well.

Okay, we asked you about which of the 4 options posted above, which was *not* criteria for a severe storm? Well, I wouldn't have put a lightning bolt here if it wasn't lightning. The National Weather Service does not issue warnings for lightning but given the deadly nature of lightning you should always be aware of lightning anytime a thunderstorm is nearby.

We'll have more information about severe weather throughout the week and coverage as these storms develop on Tuesday. Til then, have a great weekend!