President Schweitzer successfully withdrawals the US from the Iranian War, and the economy begins to come back around 2018. However, the President fails to achieve much of his social and domestic policy agenda, and the voter fatigue with both parties does him in.

I'd say possible, but only in a very very specific set of circumstances. The Dem candidate's homestate would have to be Texas, and they'd have to be one hell of a candidate as well as on the conservative end of the party, probably with in-state regional politics coming into play just right. To compensate, half of the Rep ticket is probably a New England conservative. While MD has been mentioned, WA is another anomaly that's hard to explain. Careful candidate selection indeed.