The Bergdahl bounce

An Army officer serving overseas writes to report:

Today we received an e-mail from our “Threat Integration/Criminal Intelligence Branch” (e-mail subject line: “Kidnapping for Prisoner Exchange”) which states that the risk to U.S. Soldiers of kidnapping in the wake of SGT Bergdhal’s prisoner exchange has increased. The message is issued as a result of “new operational hazards that pose a threat to [] personnel” with the following internal subject line:

Subject: Terrorist groups call for kidnapping of westerners and in particular U.S. Military members, combined with the recent release of U.S. Army Sgt Bergdhal increase the threat of kidnappings of military personnel.

The letter mentions that Al-Qaeda leaders (Zawahiri) encourage the kidnapping of Americans for the purpose of prisoner exchange and mentions Gilat Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas and released in exchange for 1,000 prisoners, before specifically identifying the release of SGT Bergdhal in exchange for 5 Taliban prisoners as potentially signaling to terrorists that kidnapping a soldier may increase the opportunity for release of American held prisoners.