Thursday, March 10, 2011

Strong Distribution Selling Leads to Possible Breakout

The past couple weeks we have seen strong distribution selling in the equities market followed by equally large days of buying. These buying and selling frenzies have formed a sideways consolidation.

Intraday movements have been sizable and more than enough to shake those trying to pick a direction early out of the market a few times. As fewer traders get involved the price range narrows and becomes compressed. Eventually there will be a breakout in a direction on heavy volume and with any luck it will start a new trend.

As much as I love to trade, I have been sitting on the sidelines for a few weeks giving this market some time to sort it’s self out.... As we all know there are times when you get really aggressive and other times when it’s best to stand aside.

It is very important to note that each trader sees the market in a different way and once it is aligned with what you are comfortable with trading, only then should you step in and trade. If not, then it’s best to wait for more favorable price action. It took me years to figure this out but now that I know what I am looking for and on what time frames, trading is less stressful and I know I don’t need to be trading all the time, there is always another opportunity just around the corner....

Gold has been trading sideways for almost two weeks now as it tries to break free of the December high. It is much in line with the SP500 chart above. I feel Friday or early next week that the market, dollar, metals and oil make some sizable moves either up or down....

Mid-Week Conclusion:
In short, I don’t think it is wise to jump the gun and take on any large positions until we see what happens on Friday overseas....

If nothing happens which is kind of what I am thinking, we should see the extra fear value come back out of the price of gold, silver and oil (drop in price) and possibly help boost equity prices.