ED: IT IS TIME FOR THE SUNDAY ROUNDTABLE. JOINING US, DEMOCRATIC ANALYST MARY ANNE MARSH, REPUBLICAN ANALYST ROB GRAY. HAPPY OPENING DAY. WE WILL GET INTO THAT IN A LITTLE BIT. [LAUGHTER] JANET: YOU HEARD SHANNON LISS-RIORDAN. A NEW POLL, ONLINE POLL, I WILL TELL YOU THAT UP TOP, SHOWS THAT IF JOE KENNEDY ENTERS THE RACE COMMITTEE AUTOMATICALLY ZOOMS TO THE TOP OF HER ED MARKEY AND RIORDAN IS AT THE BOTTOM. MARY ANNE:THE JOE KENNEDY WOULD BE AT THAT -- NO SURPRISE THAT JOE KENNEDY WOULD BE AT THE TOP OF ANY HOPEFULS OF IF I WERE HER I WOULD GET INTO THE CONGRESSIONAL RACE. SHE WOULD HAVE THE LARGEST WARCHEST GOING INTO THE RACE. I A MESSAGE WOULD WIN IT BUT SHE HAS A GOOD CHANCE. JANET: I PREFER COUPLE OF TIMES ON THAT -- I PUSH FOR A COUPLE OF TIMES ON THAT. ROB: MY ADVICE WOULD BE TO HOPE THAT KENNEDY DOESN’T RUN. [LAUGHTER] ROB: ED MARKEY HAS BEEN IN CONGRESS SINCE 1976, ALMOST HALF A CENTURY. HE IS ON THE 19TH HOLE. SHE COULD POTENTIALLY BEAT HIM, BUT MORE LIKELY JOE KENNEDY. SHE NEEDS A ONE-ON-ONE RACE AND SHE DOESN’T HAVE THAT. JANET: SHOULD SHE GO CONGRESSIONAL? ROB: SHE WOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO MATURE. ED: SHANNON LISS-RIORDAN, JOE KENNEDY III, TALKING ABOUT RUNNING AGAINST ED MARKEY. LOTS OF TALK ABOUT DEMOCRATS. WHERE IS THE GOP? WHERE IS THE GOP CHALLENGE FOR THE SENATE SEAT? ROB: RIGHT NOW NOWHERE. NOBODY HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST AND I WILL TELL YOU WHY. IT IS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR COMING UP. GUBERNATORIAL YOUR, 2.2 MILLION PEOPLE VOTED. 2016, 3 .3 MILLION PEOPLE VOTED. THAT MAKES THE ODDS VERY LONG FOR REPUBLICANS WINNING IN AN ELECTION YEAR AND THE CANDIDATES ARE SHOWING IT. THEY DON’T THINK THEY CAN WIN, THEY ARE NOT GETTING IN. JANET: WHAT ABOUT THE FRICTION BETWEEN GOVERNOR BAKER AND JIM LYONS? ROB: I DON’T THINK THAT IS A PROBLEM. I THINK PEOPLE LOOK BACK AND SAY LOOK WHAT HAPPENED TO SCOTT BROWN IN 2012 AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WHEN HE WAS AN INCUMBENT. ED: WHAT IS YOUR READ ON THIS? MARY ANNE: ROB’S RIGHT. IN A PRESIDENTIAL YEAR, DEMOCRATS WIN BECAUSE THE BIGGER THE TURNOUT, THE MORE VOTES THEY GET. JIM LYONS HAS MADE THE MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICAN PARTY THE PARTY OF TRUMP AND IN THAT SCENARIO YOU WILL ONLY GET 40% IN MASSACHUSETTS WHICH IS WHAT TRUMP WILL GET MAYBE. THIS FIGHT BETWEEN LYONS AND BAKER HAS TAKEN AWAY BAKER’S BEST FUNDRAISING MECHANISM, THE JOINT ACCOUNT. THE PROBLEM FOR BAKER IS THAT THE MORE AFFILIATED HE IS WITH THIS REPUBLICAN PARTY, THE TOUGHER FOR HIM IF HE WANTS A THIRD TERM. YES TO FIGURE OUT ANOTHER WAY TO RAISE MONEY BUT IT MAKING LARGERS -- IT BEATS BEING ALIGNED WITH JIM LINES. JANET: ELIZABETH WARREN GOES HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH JOE BIDEN FOR THE FIRST TIME. DOES SHE NEED TO STAY IN GOOD STANDING WITH BERNIE SANDERS AS SHE HAS IN THE PAST? ROB: I THINK HER STRATEGY IS TO DO MORE OF THE SAME, BECAUSE SHE HAS GOTTEN BETTER AS A CANDIDATE. SHE HAD A GOOD MOMENT THIS WEEK IN THE CLIMATE-CHANGE DEBATE, THE MOST QUOTABLE MOMENT. LET’S FACE IT, JOE BIDEN IS LEAKING OIL. [LAUGHTER] ROB: FAKE STORIES, NOT KNOWING WHAT STATE HE IS IN. SHE IS GAINING JUST BY DOING WHAT SHE IS DOING. JANET: ASSOCIATE CAP JOE BIDEN?--DOES SHE ATTACK JOE BIDEN? MARY ANNE: SHE DOESN’T NEED TO. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS DEBATE ON ABC AS THE PIVOTAL MOMENT WHEN ELIZABETH WARREN SET HERSELF UP TO BE THE FRONT-RUNNER. SHE DOESN’T NEED TO GO AFTER BIDEN OR SANDERS. SHE WILL LEAVE THAT SHIPPING IS TO EVERYONE ELSE-- CHIPPINESS TO EVERYONE ELSE. SHE WILL BE MORE SPECIFIC, MORE ENERGETIC, MORE ENTHUSIASTIC. EVERYTHING EVERYBODY WANTS HER TO BE. WHEN YOU SEE THAT, PEOPLE WILL SEE HER AFTER LOOKING AT THE COMPARISON AND SAY THAT -- JANET: WILL BIDEN GO AFTER HER? MARY ANNE: HE SHOULD, BUT I THINK, A, HE IS AFRAID TO, AND TO ROB’S POINT -- ED: YOU AND A LOT OF POINTS BECAUSE IT IS ON CHANNEL 5 AND YOU NAILED IT. MARY ANNE: RIGHT HERE. ED: THE OTHER SEVEN CANDIDATES IN THURSDAY’S DEBATE, THERE ARE MORE IN THE FIELD, BUT SEVEN IN THURSDAY’S DEBATE. IS THIS BEING WHITTLED DOWN TO A THREE-HORSE RACE ALREADY? MARY ANNE: NO QUESTION, AND IT HAS BEEN FOR SOME TIME. KAMALA HARRIS IS NOT IN THAT GROUP ANYMORE. THE ONE FACING THE MOST FINANCIAL PRESSURES JULIAN CASTRO. HE ONLY HAS $1 MILLION LEFT CASH ON HAND. HE COULD BE SOMEBODY’S VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, SO THE LONGER HE STAYS IN THE BETTER HIS CHANCES. YANG HAS $800,000. ROB: I THINK IT IS YANG. HE AND BUTTIGIEG ARE THE ONLY OUTSIDERS. YANG IS THE BUSINESS GUY. HE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH. I DON’T THINK HE IS GOING ANYWHERE. THIS IS AN HOUR NEVER MOMENT FOR HIM. BUTTIGIEG IS IN THE TOP FIVE AND DOING WELL. ED: YOU CAN WATCH THE DEBATE WHERE? MARY ANNE: CHANNEL 5

Massachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy III is considering a run against Sen. Ed Markey in 2020, and the latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll shows that it would be worth pursuing.According to the poll, which was taken last week, the 38-year-old congressman holds a 9-point advantage over the incumbent 73-year-old senator among likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters.Kennedy finished with 35% of the vote compared to 26% for Markey. Fellow challengers Steve Pemberton and Shannon Liss-Riordan tied at 1%, while a sizeable 36% of voters were undecided.When a strict choice between the two was presented to the voters, Kennedy widened his lead to 42% over Markey's 28%, with 29% undecided. Since 1988, reelection rates for U.S. senators have ranged between 79% and 96%.“The poll tells us that the incumbent-challenger calculus has changed in this instance,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Usually, the incumbent leads, and the challenger has to convince the remaining undecided voters that he or she could do a better job. Here, it’s the opposite: Challenger Kennedy leads, and now Markey has to convince the remaining undecided voters why he should stay.”In the Democratic presidential poll, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (24%) moved into a statistical tie with former Vice President Joe Biden (26%). In a June poll, Warren sat at just 10% compared to Biden's 22%.Those two were followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (8%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (5%), California Sen. Kamala Harris (3%) and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (2%). The other candidates received 1% or less of the vote, while 25% of likely Democratic primary voters were undecided.The statewide Suffolk University survey was conducted through live interviews of cellphone and landline users. All respondents indicated that they were registered voters in Massachusetts and planned to vote in the state Democratic primary in September 2020. The survey of 500 voters was conducted Sept. 3 through Sept. 5. The margin of error is plus-minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence. Poll results are posted at this link.

BOSTON —

Massachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy III is considering a run against Sen. Ed Markey in 2020, and the latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll shows that it would be worth pursuing.

According to the poll, which was taken last week, the 38-year-old congressman holds a 9-point advantage over the incumbent 73-year-old senator among likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters.

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Kennedy finished with 35% of the vote compared to 26% for Markey. Fellow challengers Steve Pemberton and Shannon Liss-Riordan tied at 1%, while a sizeable 36% of voters were undecided.

When a strict choice between the two was presented to the voters, Kennedy widened his lead to 42% over Markey's 28%, with 29% undecided.

Since 1988, reelection rates for U.S. senators have ranged between 79% and 96%.

“The poll tells us that the incumbent-challenger calculus has changed in this instance,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Usually, the incumbent leads, and the challenger has to convince the remaining undecided voters that he or she could do a better job. Here, it’s the opposite: Challenger Kennedy leads, and now Markey has to convince the remaining undecided voters why he should stay.”

In the Democratic presidential poll, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (24%) moved into a statistical tie with former Vice President Joe Biden (26%). In a June poll, Warren sat at just 10% compared to Biden's 22%.

Those two were followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (8%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (5%), California Sen. Kamala Harris (3%) and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (2%). The other candidates received 1% or less of the vote, while 25% of likely Democratic primary voters were undecided.

The statewide Suffolk University survey was conducted through live interviews of cellphone and landline users. All respondents indicated that they were registered voters in Massachusetts and planned to vote in the state Democratic primary in September 2020.

The survey of 500 voters was conducted Sept. 3 through Sept. 5. The margin of error is plus-minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence. Poll results are posted at this link.