Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

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While the Cancellation Bear would like no better to have the chance to devour rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans, the show's premiere ratings last week were plenty good enough on ratings challenged NBC to have the bear begin his prediction for its future at "likely to be renewed". Early predictions are subject to rapid change, stay tuned.

The observant will note that the bear has moved The New Normal prediction up to "likely canceled" from "certain to be canceled". With its recent ratings gains airing after The Voice, it's cancellation is not nearly as certain as 1600 Penn or Guys With Kids.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

yeah we can conclude that up all night isnt coming back. although it would be funny if they cancelled Hannibal and kept up all night.

Dan S

I disagree upgrading TNN. There’s no way that show is coming back. NBC has a lot of good pilots to choose from that I’m certain can do a lot better. Regarding Hannibal it works for me & hopefully it won’t drop since 1.6 was on the low side for a premiere. I remember Deception premiering to 2.0 & we all saw how that show collapsed.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Waitaminute, is this in reference to the scene where Hannibal whipped a nice human liver for supper?”

Certainly in reference to the movie, but my aging memory was that it was just Hopkins dialog, not an actual cooking scene.

maxxie

When did Smash get cancelled.

Mal

Bill, just curious: in the history of this site have you ever been wrong in predicting a “certain renewal” that did not happen (barring, of course, special behind-the-scenes circumstances)?

Ultima

@maxxieWhen did Smash get cancelled.

About a month ago. Ready for Love takes over the timeslots that Smash, Go On and The New Normal were in starting tonight and Smash moved to Saturday last week.

Max Vrany

@maxxie, Ultima explained it, but Saturday burn-off = death.

Lisbeth Slander

^Smash was cancelled the minute NBC placed new episodes to run on a Saturday…

Good news for Hannibal, I really enjoyed it.

Why is Parenthood higlighted red and the other shows not? (It’s the only other show on the network besides Hannibal I watch)

maxxie

@Ultima
Thanks

Ben

*Lisbeth Slander

Parenthood is in green color, with five smiling faces meaning it’s certain to be renewed by May 2013.

If you are seeing red highlights next to it, maybe there’s something wrong with your computer.

Nerdbot

I wouldn’t predict renewal for Hannibal that fast. I mean, it just started last week and it’s very likely that it will go down this week. Not that I want that, actually it was one of shows that I was looking forward to watch, but I think I’ll wait a little bit longer until the ratings stabilize and then I’ll watch it.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Bill, just curious: in the history of this site have you ever been wrong in predicting a “certain renewal” that did not happen (barring, of course, special behind-the-scenes circumstances)?”

A few older, expensive shows have been canceled that were predicted as “certain” renewals at some point in the season (Heroes comes to mind), but I *think* that I had them all downgraded to “likely” by the time they were canceled. Also, shows where the stars simply decided to call it quits (like House).

Certainly L&O:SVU would fit that model were it canceled now. If Hargitay just decided she was done, (or Dick Wolf for that matter) it’s not something I can predict.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“I wouldn’t predict renewal for Hannibal that fast. “

I make predictions based on available ratings immediately. That’s just how I roll.