Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.

A gradual but unspectacular economic recovery is unfolding in the OECD, as the imbalances that caused the downturn are being corrected. Business spending should gradually take over from private consumption as the main contribution to growth. Monetary policy continues to provide support to demand in most countries, and there is room for further easing in the euro area. The threat of an oil crisis has now faded and as geopolitical tensions recede activity may be expected to firm later in 2003. A relapse into recession cannot be totally ruled out, but this is now a low-probability outcome. However, while OECD economies are generally expected to share in the upturn, it remains heavily dependent on the United States.