Erin O'Toole

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Validated election results for Durham riding

DURHAM -- Election results for the Durham byelection were validated by the Returning Officer on Nov. 28.

Erin O'Toole Conservative 17,280 50.7

Larry O'Connor NDP 8,946 26.3

Grant Humes Liberal 5,887 17.3

Virginia Ervin Green 1,386 4.1

Andrew Moriarity Christian Heritage 437 1.3

Michael Nicula Online 132 0.4

Durham election race was for second place: U of T professor

DURHAM -- Just over a third of all registered voters in Durham riding cast a ballot on Nov. 26.

Of the 95,296 registered voters (not including electors who signed up on election day), only 34,070 people cast a ballot -- resulting in a seemingly abysmal 35.8-per cent turnout.

But that number isn't too bad when consideration is given to other elections and other years, said Nelson Wiseman, an associate professor of Canadian government and politics at the University of Toronto.

"I don't think it's that significant when you look at other byelections in other places in other years," said Mr. Wiseman. "Maybe the surprise is Durham's turnout was as high as it was. The outcome was very predictable, unlike Calgary Centre."

Besides the Durham byelection on Nov. 26, voters in the ridings of Victoria (British Columbia) and Calgary Centre also cast votes for a new MP.

In Victoria, the turnout was about 44 per cent, while fewer than 30 per cent of the registered voters in Calgary bothered to cast a ballot. Alberta routinely has poor voter turnout, added Mr. Wiseman.

"When you look at all three, Durham was in the middle," he said.

And with little doubt in his mind who would end up the winner, Mr. Wiseman said the real race was for second place in Durham.

"The only thing I was watching for was who would come in second," he said. "The real story in Durham is the NDP increased their percentage, suggesting the bounce the Liberals got (in recent polls) from (leadership hopeful Justin) Trudeau didn't have the same impact."

Cashing in on the favourable poll results would have been "a moral victory for the Liberals in Durham, but it didn't turn out that way," said the professor.

As for Mr. O'Toole's victory, Mr. Wiseman said he was only amazed at the staggering support the Conservative candidate received.

"I am surprised he got 50 per cent of the vote because (former Durham MP Bev) Oda didn't go out in a chariot of glory," said Mr. Wiseman. "Durham is a solid Conservative seat."

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Mr. O'Toole cruised to an easy victory in the Nov. 26 byelection, securing 17,280 (50.7 per cent) votes to hold onto the Durham riding seat for the ruling Conservatives in the race to replace Bev Oda.

Poll-by-poll results released by Elections Canada on Thursday, however, illustrate just how dominating Mr. O'Toole's victory was.

The son of current Durham MPP John O'Toole was hugely favoured to win the Nov. 26 byelection, allowing the federal Tories to keep a stranglehold on the riding they've held firmly since 2004, and he didn't disappoint.

The bulk of Mr. O'Toole's support came from Clarington, his home municipality, where he tallied 9,153 votes. He received a combined 5,139 votes from the northern municipalities of Scugog (2,869) and Uxbridge (2,263).

If the five opposition parties in Uxbridge combined their votes, giving them a total of 2,279, they would have beaten Mr. O'Toole by just 16 votes in that township.

In fact, if the votes in Scugog and Uxbridge for the opposition parties were tallied together (4,918), that would have totalled a little more than half of the 9,153 votes Mr. O'Toole received in Clarington.

As well, hopes that a familiar name running for the NDP, former Brock Township mayor Larry O'Connor, would be enough to woo enough voters in the two northern townships to topple Mr. O'Toole were dashed.

Mr. O'Connor garnered a total of 2,291 votes from Scugog and Uxbridge -- less than half of the 5,132 the eventual Durham MP secured from those same voters.

Perhaps the byelection was over before the bulk of voters went to the polls on Nov. 26.

Mr. O'Toole tallied 2,995 votes at advance polls and mobile voting stations, giving him more than three times the support (977 votes) Liberal candidate Grant Humes secured before the byelection. Mr. O'Connor garnered 1,223 advance votes, less than half the ballots cast for Mr. O'Toole.

Put another way, Mr. O'Toole already had enough votes from the advance polls that he didn't need the support from Scugog and Uxbridge on election night to win.

Mr. O'Connor captured the most votes in Clarington (5,452), followed by support in Scugog (1,293) and Uxbridge (998), en route to a second-place finish. He received 1,223 ballots at the advance polls.

Mr. Humes finished third for the second time in two years. He received 2,893 votes in Clarington, another 1,043 from Scugog voters and an additional 974 in Uxbridge. Advance voters cast 977 ballots in his favour.

Virginia Ervin (Green Party), Andrew Moriarity (Christian Heritage Party) and Michael Nicula (Online Party) all received the bulk of their support from Clarington voters -- perhaps because of the number of polls there.

There were 236 polls in total, with 140 in Clarington, 41 in Scugog and 37 in Uxbridge. There were an additional 18 advance and mobile polls.