But, following the recent general election, which saw the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, win a third term, what are the chances of these development trends being sustained and progressing even further?

What now?

So what does this drift towards autocracy mean for the country’s future? Since 2015, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have replaced the MDGs as the means to end multiple inequalities by 2030. It is widely believed that the long-term success of the SDGs hinges on improving the quality of government around the world. In fact, this is so important that building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions is now a development goal in its own right – Goal 16.

Key to achieving this is to have mechanisms in place to hold governments to account. Parliament, the judiciary, the media and voters should be able to hold the executive power to clearly defined limits and standards. If those who rule aren’t subject to effective checks and balances, they can abuse their privileges to maintain power.

Recent events suggest that the Bangladeshi government is moving in the opposite direction. And the cost, in terms of damaging development prospects, could be significant. In systems where there are weaker mechanisms to hold the government to account, for example, corruption in the public sector may be rife and state institutions less effective.

Our recent research provides an assessment of the consequences of having effective states with respect to income poverty eradication. In particular, we’ve found that countries with the most state capacity – the capability of the state machine to design and deliver policies – reduce income poverty faster, up to twice the speed of those with the least.

Despite some welcome development advances, state capacity in Bangladesh is now weak. Global surveys on public sector efficiency and the quality of legal infrastructure rank Bangladesh as a state with weak capacity – and this can have further economic consequences. Recent cross-country evidence has confirmed that democracy has a significant positive effect on economic growth in the long run. Consequently, in Bangladesh, poor state capacity and democratic backsliding may well become significant constraints on economic growth and, in turn, inhibit the possibility of the country transitioning to an upper middle-income nation by 2040.

Bangladesh has made impressive progress in economic and social development and surprised many by growing its GDP at 6% per year since at least 2015. But if the Amawi League wants to consolidate these gains and make further improvements in Bangladesh, it must reverse the recent democratic decline.