Maximum credit growth forecast at 18-19 percent in 2017

Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Maximum
credit growth this year is forecast to be just 18-19 percent, meaning that the
banking system will not use up the increased room of 21 percent.

The Government in August decided to extend
this year’s credit growth target to 21 percent from 18 percent planned
previously to support economic growth.

According to Bao Viet Securities Company
(BVSC), credit growth will not reach 21 percent for several reasons.

First, it is likely that firms’ ability to
absorb capital is limited and the capital demand of the economy is likely to be
only 15-18 percent per year, which is a moderate level without causing too much
risk of potential bad debt.

Second, some banks such as VIB, ACB, HDBank
and Military Bank want to strengthen their lending. However, in the first two
quarters of the year itself, their lending quota was almost used up.

Third, banks such as Vietcombank, BIDV and
Vietinbank that have the largest capital scale in the banking system are facing
difficulties in raising capital to meet the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) Basel
II regulations. The Capital Adequacy Ratio of banks is also approaching the
regulated 9 percent threshold. Therefore, it will be difficult for the banks to
expand lending if they fail to increase capital in the near future.

As a result, BVSC forecasts that credit
growth for this entire year is likely to reach 18-19 percent, the level equal
to 2016.

Previously, SBV Governor Le Minh Hung said
the central bank is under no pressure to relax the monetary policy to help the
country achieve the economic growth target of 6.7 percent this year. The central
bank had asked credit institutions to control credit growth and ensure credit
quality.

"This year, the quality of loans has
been strengthened and tightly controlled in the risky industries, especially
real estate. The Government and the SBV are consistent with the opinion that
economic growth must ensure the goal of macro-economic stability," Hung said.

Reports of the National Financial
Supervisory Commission showed that lending of the banking system had
accelerated significantly last month. Specifically, credit growth in November
rose 2.8 percent against the previous month, pushing the total rise in this
year’s first 11 months to 15.3 percent.

According to the Government’s financial
watchdog, the ratio of medium- and long-term loans in the 11 months increased
by 12.7 percent against December last year and accounted for 53.8 percent of
total outstanding loans.

The rising rate of short-term loans was
18.6 percent, compared with 15.2 percent in the first 11 months of 2016.

The commission also noted that lending in
foreign currency expanded 12.3 percent from the end of 2016, more than doubling
the expansion of 5.8 percent in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, loans in Vietnam dong increased
15.6 percent in the 11-month period, lower than the 16.6 percent increase in
the same period last year, and accounted for 91.8 percent of total credit.

The commission highlighted that consumer lending
continued at a rapid pace, with growth hitting 59 percent in the 11-month period,
driven mainly by home loans. – VNA