I think either Christie or Paul. I think Christie will be the establishment choice after Rubio ends up being a flop (which I think he will). Paul will be the conservative grassroots choice. I have a difficult time, at this point at least, seeing the nominee being someone else.

Ftr, I voted Rubio in this poll, though obviously he's not the strongest frontrunner in the world and it's very early. Christie and Paul also in the mix, though of course they're both very flawed candidates as well.

The sleeper of the moment (and now probably up to #4 in likelihood of winning the nomination in my book) is Scott Walker. Definitely looking stronger in recent weeks/months, if only because the other potential candidates are looking a bit less impressive. And Walker's recent travel schedule strongly suggests that he intends to run as long as Paul Ryan doesn't.

I voted Rubio in the last poll, but his star is rapidly fading. His immigration push hasn't been good for him - not, as many pundits claim, because he's losing conservative credibility, but because he's losing his (undeserved) reputation for being a skilled and effective politician.

Went with Christie this time, although I suspect that we'd all be talking about Walker were we not preoccupied with Ryan (whose putative candidacy is, in my view, a red herring).

Christie. The conservative wing is too crowded right now, but I expect that to sort itself out. The primary will be carnage.

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"To [William O.] Douglas, Richard Nixon was, and had been for nearly 30 years, the enemy. The Nixon presidency had once reminded him of a speech Douglas had given more than 30 years before to Nixon's law-school class at Duke. Nixon said the speech had been so impressive that it inspired his own political career. Hearing that, Douglas said, was the most upsetting moment of his life, the only time he actually felt suicidal."

I think Christie still has the best shot, but his chances have lessened in recent months. Once he's been re-elected and can start focusing on a Presidential run, I expect him to shift to the right a bit in an effort to appease conservatives, and thus, will end up in a similar position to where Romney was in 2011, though he'll face stronger opposition than Romney did.

The vote split will help Christie rise to the top of a crowded field. By the time the momentum builds for one alternative, he'll have a huge lead and be unstoppable. He'll likely be forced to pick a right-wing VP, but he's the easy favorite.