No falloff seen for fast-starting pitchers

By Ray Murphy and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

Last week, we examined some hot hitters who were having early success that we think will be sustainable.

This week, we do the same for some starting pitchers. Rather than focus on obvious players who we know to be ace-level pitchers — such as Roy Halladay (4-1, 2.14 ERA) — we'll dig a little deeper and point out some more surprising hurlers we think can continue to baffle hitters (statistics through Sunday).

By Phelan M. Ebenhack, AP

Limiting home runs allowed has helped Rays starting pitcher James Shields lower his ERA about three runs per game over last season.

Shields has featured his usual strong control (1.7 walks per nine innings or BB/9) and a healthy strikeout rate (7.6 strikeouts per nine innings or K/9), but those skills were intact while he was getting hit hard last year.

What's different now? The key to his strong April was limiting home runs. He allowed only three in his six starts (all of which came in a single start at homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago), for a nice 0.6 home run-per-nine-innings rate (HR/9). From 2006 to 2010, his HR/9 was always above 1.0, peaking at 1.5 last year.

Since Shields also has increased his ground-ball percentage (GB%) this year (46%, up from 41% last year), it seems likely he can continue to keep the ball in the park a little more and sustain an ERA in the 3.00-3.50 range.

•Boston Red Sox right-hander Josh Beckett also is recovering nicely from a dismal 2010 campaign. His recovery is based upon some very similar skill gains. Beckett has improved his control (2.4 BB/9), getting it back in line with his career levels, after walking more batters than usual last year.

But what really hurt Beckett last year was a lofty 1.4 HR/9 rate, which he knocked down to 0.8 in April.

He hasn't made the corresponding ground-ball percentage gains Shields has, but Beckett has not been as traditionally prone to the long ball as Shields, either.

The skills Beckett is displaying this year are very much in line with what he showed in 2008-09, when his ERAs were 3.86 and 4.03, respectively. Beckett is capable of replicating or besting those numbers in 2011.

But so far, Cahill has taken a step forward, skill-wise. He has boosted his K/9 ratio by more than two strikeouts to 7.7. That has lifted his strikeout-to-walk ratio accordingly (now a robust 2.8), creating a skill profile that is much more supportive of the success he had a year ago and continued into April this year. We're late to the party here, but we are starting to believe.

We have long known that Anderson owns elite-level skills. The questions with him surround his health.

He threw only 112 innings last year in between stints on the disabled list because of elbow trouble. After 40 innings pitched in April, we remain a bit leery of Anderson's ability to carry an ace-level workload into the summer. But as long as his sometimes-balky elbow cooperates, expect more top-notch performances.

•As a fly-ball pitcher, the Minnesota Twins' Scott Baker (1-2, 3.16 ERA) always will be somewhat prone to home runs, but last year's move from the Metrodome to Target Field should have been a boon for the Twins veteran.

During an injury-riddled 2010, he had a 3.86 ERA at home, as opposed to a 5.14 ERA away from Target Field, and he allowed 15 of his 23 homers on the road. So it's encouraging to see him off to a good start in 2011, despite having four of his five starts on the road.

In his last three road starts, he has not allowed any balls to leave the park. There still will be nights when a couple of fly balls sail over the fence, but with his arm issues straightened out, he appears better able to minimize those nights and take a run at a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011.

•Colorado Rockies left-hander Jorge De la Rosa (4-0, 2.61 ERA) has long been on our breakout watch lists due to his ideal combination of a healthy strikeout rate and ground-ball bias. So far in 2011, he is displaying a new strength — improved control.

His current 2.9 BB/9 is a career-best mark, which combined with his usual strikeout numbers has produced a near-elite 2.9 K/BB ratio.

Oddly, his trademark ground-ball percentage is down from historical levels, although that might be a sample-size issue. He had one fly ball-heavy outing against the New York Mets, which is skewing his percentages. For the last two years, De la Rosa has displayed skills worthy of a sub-4.00 ERA. This should be the year he finally cracks that barrier.

•De la Rosa teammate Jhoulys Chacin (3-2, 2.91 ERA) also owns the attractive ability to both strike out hitters and get ground balls, and that is driving his early success. Chacin's strikeout rate actually is down from his 2010 rookie levels, but he is more than compensating with a 60% ground-ball rate, which is a great weapon to neutralize the effects of his hitter-friendly home park.

The reduction in strikeouts seems to be benefiting his control as well, as he is walking only 2.4 hitters per nine innings.

These tweaks to Chacin's skill-set are for the better and set him up to thrive even in the thin air of Colorado all summer.

•The Florida Marlins' Ricky Nolasco (3-0, 3.35 ERA) has spent the last two seasons producing disappointing statistics despite attractive underlying skills. In 2011, the results finally are matching our expectations for the right-hander. Like Chacin, Nolasco has traded off a few strikeouts for better control and more ground balls, and the results suggest the adjustment has been a positive one overall.

We at BaseballHQ.com have been saying for years Nolasco had the skills of a 3.50 ERA pitcher. So far, his ERA is finally in agreement. Don't be surprised if it stays in agreement all season long.

•Brandon Beachy (1-1, 3.47 ERA) surprised many by beating out prospect Mike Minor for the fifth spot in the Atlanta Braves rotation. But his performance has validated the decision.

Averaging a strikeout per inning with an eye-popping 3.6 K/BB ratio, Beachy is dominating opposing hitters. His one weakness appears to be an elevated fly-ball percentage (53%), which likely will lead to giving up more homers on the road, especially as the weather warms up. Beachy, however, is displaying a skill profile that can sustain his current mid-3.00s ERA.

•The Milwaukee Brewers' Randy Wolf (3-2, 2.39 ERA) is succeeding by recapturing some skills he owned earlier in his career. The 34-year-old's current 3.3 K/BB is a career high, but it is built on improvements in both BB/9 (2.4) and K/9 (7.9) that he has displayed in the recent past — just never at the same time.

Like others on this list, he leans toward being a fly-ball pitcher, which raises his risk level. And part of his early success has been based on unusual success in stranding runners, which won't continue. His ERA won't stay in the 2.00 range all year, but it could remain sub-4.00.

Ray Murphy is the Managing Director and a columnist for BaseballHQ.com. Ron Shandler is the founder of the website and has been applying component skills analysis to fantasy baseball since 1993.

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.