May 04, 2011

Giffords strong if runs for AZ Sen., Hayworth, Palin weak

Raleigh, N.C. – With Rep. Gabrielle Giffords recently making her first semi-public appearance since being shot in Tucson almost four months ago, some have speculated about her chances of making a bid for Jon Kyl’s soon-to-be-vacated Senate seat. PPP’s latest poll shows that if she is able to run, she would start out a strong contender.

Giffords leads Rep. Jeff Flake, 48-41; Sarah Palin, 54-36; and former Rep. J.D. Hayworth by a whopping 57-31. The congresswoman is by far the best liked of any of the seven candidates on either side, with a 57-17 favorability rating. Independents side 64-12 in her favor, and even Republicans see her more favorably than not, 36-30. As such, she wins 17-28% of the GOP vote and takes the independent vote by margins of 24 to 47 points.

Palin garnered a lot of controversy after the shooting, yet has suggested moving to Arizona as a base for any future political runs. But every Democrat would at least narrowly lead her initially, Attorney General Terry Goddard by a 49-40 spread; Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, 45-41; and Rep. Ed Pastor, 45-43. Hayworth lost his primary challenge to John McCain last year, and would be a disastrous nominee this time. He loses to Goddard, 51-33; Gordon, 44-36; and Pastor, 42-37. Hayworth is even less liked than Palin, with a 21-56 favorability mark to her 32-62.

Flake matches Goddard at 45%, and leads Pastor, 46-34, and Gordon, 47-33. Unlike Hayworth and Palin, Flake manages to largely hold the GOP together, losing only 7-17% of them to the other two candidates’ 10-28%, while also performing better with independents.

“Democrats in Arizona have been waiting to see whether Gabrielle Giffords can run for the Senate next year before looking for another candidate and with these numbers you can see why,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If she’s able to run she will be quite a formidable candidate.”

PPP surveyed 623 Arizona voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Jeff Flake and Democrat GabrielleGiffords, who would you vote for?Jeff Flake ........................................................ 41%Gabrielle Giffords............................................ 48%Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Jeff Flake and Democrat TerryGoddard, who would you vote for?Jeff Flake ........................................................ 45%Terry Goddard................................................. 45%Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Jeff Flake and Democrat PhilGordon, who would you vote for?Jeff Flake ........................................................ 47%Phil Gordon..................................................... 33%Undecided....................................................... 20%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Jeff Flake and Democrat EdPastor, who would you vote for?Jeff Flake ........................................................ 46%Ed Pastor ........................................................ 34%Undecided....................................................... 20%

Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican JD Hayworth and DemocratGabrielle Giffords, who would you vote for?JD Hayworth ................................................... 31%Gabrielle Giffords............................................ 57%Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican JD Hayworth and Democrat TerryGoddard, who would you vote for?JD Hayworth ................................................... 33%Terry Goddard................................................. 51%Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican JD Hayworth and Democrat PhilGordon, who would you vote for?JD Hayworth ................................................... 36%Phil Gordon..................................................... 44%Undecided....................................................... 20%

Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican JD Hayworth and Democrat EdPastor, who would you vote for?JD Hayworth ................................................... 37%Ed Pastor ........................................................ 42%Undecided....................................................... 21%

Q16 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Sarah Palin and DemocratGabrielle Giffords, who would you vote for?Sarah Palin ..................................................... 36%Gabrielle Giffords............................................ 54%Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q17 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Sarah Palin and Democrat TerryGoddard, who would you vote for?Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%Terry Goddard................................................. 49%Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q18 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Sarah Palin and Democrat PhilGordon, who would you vote for?Sarah Palin ..................................................... 41%Phil Gordon..................................................... 45%Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q19 If the candidates for US Senate next year wereRepublican Sarah Palin and Democrat EdPastor, who would you vote for?Sarah Palin ..................................................... 43%Ed Pastor ........................................................ 45%Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 51%Man................................................................. 49%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 34%Republican...................................................... 43%Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 10%30 to 45........................................................... 24%46 to 65........................................................... 40%Older than 65.................................................. 26%

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