Why Theresa May has little to lose if she calls a snap election

Remember when we used to laugh at the Italians, those political basket cases of European politics?

Between 1992 and 1996 the Italian people went to the polls three times in a seemingly ceaseless tussle between centre-left and centre-right.

We used to call them a banana republic. And beneath that nasty thought was a sense of superiority that we British were somehow immune to chaos.

Yet, in the last year or so we have broken new ground in parliamentary futility chaos.

Italian politics may be as screwy as it ever was, but these days it’s they who look at us and think about Repubblica delle banane.

It is reported Theresa May is considering a snap election in October to try to rid herself of the dependency to the DUP and finally crack on with her version of Brexit.

She has firmly denied it, so let’s assume it’s probably true. Most things Theresa May firmly denies come to pass, sooner rather than later.

If it happens, this would be the third time in a little more than two years that Britain went to the ballot box to vote on... well, what exactly?

To resolve the slow-motion trainwreck that is our Brexit negotiation? Hardly. Both main parties, together unassailable in representing around 80 per cent of the electorate between them, are committed to seeing our departure from the European Union through.

If Kier Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn believe that the shifting nuance of their kind of Brexit as opposed to the various Tory Brexits on offer is clear to most people, they are deluded.

Or is it, even, to make our voices heard on stuff that really matters to most people out in the real world? The effects of austerity on our health service, education system, our armed forces or police service? And all the rest of it.

No. If we had yet another election it would be to try to resolve the exact same thing the previous two - 2016’s referendum and 2017’s general election - tried to fix: the internal dysfunction of the Conservative Party. A party completely riven on the question of Europe.

It’s a dysfunction four decades old and counting and showing no sign of resolution.

It’s a dysfunction that has subsumed every other national consideration for the past two years.

It’s a dysfunction that brought down David Cameron and will bring down Theresa May too if she can’t regain a grasp on what she used to refer to as “strong and stable” government.

In many ways, the PM has little to lose by calling a snap election.

Her premiership is mired and the opposition have carefully avoided the potentially power-winning point of differentiation on Brexit that would give the country a genuine choice on how we now feel about Brexit.

Throw into the calculus the fact that Jeremy Corbyn has failed to take any real advantage over the most incapable and shambolic government in living memory, and you can see the appeal.

Despite all her denials, don’t rule it out. She is a desperate woman, facing the ignominy of a totally failed premiership. This isn’t hyperbole. This is plain to see.

That the EU have reportedly decided to reject her new proposals for the Irish Border solution, is just the latest addition to a long line of embarrassment for Number Ten.

She’s getting nowhere. Time is running out. Michael Gove has moved on to wood-burning stoves and Boris wants to buy a Brexit plane. Wasn’t the bus enough?

We live at a time when humiliation, failure and a pervading sense of the surreal have become normalised. Why not another roll of the dice?

I had a good debate with an old colleague Mike Graham on his TalkRadio show the other day. I made the same point I’ve been making for a long time now, so long it’s even starting to bore me:

“If we realise the thing we bought isn’t anything like what the advert said. And we’ve still got the receipt. Why don’t we just take it back to the shop and get a refund?”

Mike’s argument was the same one I’ve heard 1,000 times and I respect it’s logic, even if I think it’s essentially nuts.