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Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Cards keep sending Lyn out there for 124 pitchers he won't continue to post great numbers, no matter what kind of shape he got himself into. And it doesn't show a whole lot of confidence in their bullpen either.

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by Salukifan2

The cards pitching will come back down to earth. The problem is there are only two cardinals starters that have an "earth." Waino and Westbrook. Waino is an ace when he is down to earth and Westbrook is a high 3's low 4's ERA guy. Lynn, Garcia, and certainly Miller don't have an earth. In Lynn's rookie season he was fantastic out of the bullpen, and in his first season as a starter he was an All-Star. He didn't finish the year as strong as he hoped but that has been attributed to fatigue caused by his David Wells physique. Now that he is in shape, and starting to really get into sync with his new body his "earth" has yet to really be established. After an impressive rookie campaign Garcia was somewhat of a disappointment in '11 and certainly in '12, but Wainwright and Carpenter have said since Garcia came along that he has the most movement of anyone on the staff. Garcia's issues are almost 100% between the ears. If he figured that out he could be a sub-3 ERA pitcher again like he was in 2010. And with Miller, the guy has been projected to be a top of the rotation guy, possibly and ace his whole minor league career. Will he finish with 1.50 ERA? No, probably not, but i don't think anyone can know how much or how little regression he will face over the next 4 months.

I think you can make one heck of a good educated guess about how far Lynn and Garcia will regress, and its a lot.

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Kozma is a pathetic hitter.

Calling him better than just about anyone is a bit of a stretch. Not saying Cozart is much, but hard to argue that Kozma isn't one of the worst starters in the bigs at this point considering he isn't much of a rangy guy.

I guess where I'm coming from on this argument is that I don't think Reds fans have any room to talk, right now as it stands, about horrible SS options. I think the above poster is a bit harsh considering that there are a lot of teams with worse players playing on their team. Heck... the Mets just signed Rick Ankiel as a CF option and I certainly think Kozma is a better starter than him. I'm also scratching my head at the "isn't much of a rangy guy" comment. He's currently putting up a 1 UZR right now and put up a 2.6 UZR in limited time last season at SS. While he isn't an elite defensive SS like a Tulo or a Brendan Ryan, the numbers suggest that he does have above average range for a SS.

“Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

“I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Cozart is one of the elite defensive SS's in the game. Neither is much of a hitter but the edge goes to Cozart for having some pop. Overall since SS is defense first I give it to the Reds. Cozart is simply a better SS.

Yadi is easily a better option but its like 1B in reverse...both clubs good solid players but Yadi is second to Posey. And Craig is solid at first but Votto is a true star. So despite each team's edge...and you can 2B and 3B and RF to that same kind of comp. Despite which team has a. edge the other has a player(s) not far from it. In left and center you have clearcut winners in Holliday and Choo. Both have decent guys in those spots ...the OBP that the Reds are getting from their platoon and Jay in CF for the redbirds. To me it adds up to pretty evenly matched squads. A true push.

Starting pitching...edge to the Cards at least now...but the Reds again have a very good rotation as well...good enough to keep close pace with the Cards.

To me the bullpen is a key in a long season...and depth. The Reds have a better bullpen and until Maness and Martinez and crew prove the Cards pen problems are fixed I don't see much argument.
Both teams have okay benches but the Cards have Taveras waiting his shot. The Reds big name Billy Hamilton won't be ready until September at earliest and probablg next year. Thd Reds have deep pitching options starters and relievers if someone goes down. The Cards have Wacha in the wings yet.

It is a push to me right now. But the Cards have been there and done it...the Reds still have to climb that last hurdle. Right now...this moment...edge to the redbirds. That could change easily
depending on health and possible trades. My guess is both make the playoffs.

Likes:

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

Cozart is one of the elite defensive SS's in the game. Neither is much of a hitter but the edge goes to Cozart for having some pop. Overall since SS is defense first I give it to the Reds. Cozart is simply a better SS.

Yadi is easily a better option but its like 1B in reverse...both clubs good solid players but Yadi is second to Posey. And Craig is solid at first but Votto is a true star. So despite each team's edge...and you can 2B and 3B and RF to that same kind of comp. Despite which team has a. edge the other has a player(s) not far from it. In left and center you have clearcut winners in Holliday and Choo. Both have decent guys in those spots ...the OBP that the Reds are getting from their platoon and Jay in CF for the redbirds. To me it adds up to pretty evenly matched squads. A true push.

Starting pitching...edge to the Cards at least now...but the Reds again have a very good rotation as well...good enough to keep close pace with the Cards.

To me the bullpen is a key in a long season...and depth. The Reds have a better bullpen and until Maness and Martinez and crew prove the Cards pen problems are fixed I don't see much argument.
Both teams have okay benches but the Cards have Taveras waiting his shot. The Reds big name Billy Hamilton won't be ready until September at earliest and probablg next year. Thd Reds have deep pitching options starters and relievers if someone goes down. The Cards have Wacha in the wings yet.

It is a push to me right now. But the Cards have been there and done it...the Reds still have to climb that last hurdle. Right now...this moment...edge to the redbirds. That could change easily
depending on health and possible trades. My guess is both make the playoffs.

I think there is a slight edge to the Cardinals bench considering that they have more mix and match parts and more power. Having Matt Adams as a late inning pinch hitting option puts them over the top for me on that category. I don't see anyone on the Reds bench that has as much legit power as he does. Having Adams on the bench doesn't give the Cardinals much of a drop off if they decide to play him. Where as there's considerable drop off if the Reds sit Votto, the Cardinals have the ability to sit Holliday or Beltran, have Craig go to left or right, and have Adams play 1B. There is no real drop off right now with him in the game.

Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-14-2013 at 12:42 AM.

“Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

“I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

People keep making the same mistake when evaluating each team's talent.

The question isn't whose playing better now. Duh, it's the Cardinals. Just look at the standings.

The question is "Is the Cardinals (sic) 25-man roster more talented than the Reds roster?"

Talent is about what production to expect from each player over the full 2013 season.

To do this involves projection (happy guesses) and analysis, not just quoting what they players have already done this year. What each player has done this year is only meaningful in how it informs our overall understanding of their overall talent.

Here's my happy guesses and analysis:

(Note, I think it's best to compare position by position for defense alone, and to use their lineups to compare their offense.)

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

People keep making the same mistake when evaluating each team's talent.

The question isn't whose playing better now. Duh, it's the Cardinals. Just look at the standings.

The question is "Is the Cardinals (sic) 25-man roster more talented than the Reds roster?"

Talent is about what production to expect from each player over the full 2013 season.

To do this involves projection (happy guesses) and analysis, not just quoting what they players have already done this year. What each player has done this year is only meaningful in how it informs our overall understanding of their overall talent.

Here's my happy guesses and analysis:

(Note, I think it's best to compare position by position for defense alone, and to use their lineups to compare their offense.)

Overall, it's not even close. Reds clearly have more overall talent. Whether that talent will prevail in 2013, we shall have fun finding out.

Broxton over Rosenthal... really?

Phillips offense over Craig's offense when Phillips put up a 97 OPS+ in 2012 compared to Craig's 138 OPS+ and this year Phillips is putting up a 107 OPS+ vs. Craig's 115 OPS+? I think you're a bit generous in saying that Phillips will outproduce Craig in the course of a given year.

Jay has been hitting in the 7 hole and you completely leave out Matt Carpenter in your analysis. Choo is still better than Carpenter but it pushes Jay down to the 7 hole. I think Jay is a better 7 hole option than what the Reds have.

Arroyo over Lynn? I'm not really understanding the Reds fans fascination with him. He's a decent pitcher but Lynn had a better WAR season than he did last year, better FIP, and is years younger than he is. In fact, I would argue that if Arroyo is your 3rd best pitcher, the Reds pitching staff is in trouble. I would at best put him as the Reds 5th starter.

Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-14-2013 at 01:22 AM.

“Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

“I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Also, you would take Frazier's defense over Freese when Fraier put up a 1.0 at 3B last year while Freese put up a 2.1 UZR there last year? Right now, Frazier is playing a bit better defensively but I think Freese has the edge on defense as the year goes on.

“Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

“I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Broxton over Rosenthal... really?

Phillips offense over Craig's offense when Phillips put up a 97 OPS+ in 2012 compared to Craig's 138 OPS+ and this year Phillips is putting up a 107 OPS+ vs. Craig's 115 OPS+? I think you're a bit generous in saying that Phillips will outproduce Craig in the course of a given year.

Jay has been hitting in the 7 hole and you completely leave out Matt Carpenter in your analysis. Choo is still better than Carpenter but it pushes Jay down to the 7 hole. I think Jay is a better 7 hole option than what the Reds have.

Arroyo over Lynn? I'm not really understanding the Reds fans fascination with him. He's a decent pitcher but Lynn had a better WAR season than he did last year, better FIP, and is years younger than he is. In fact, I would argue that if Arroyo is your 3rd best pitcher, the Reds pitching staff is in trouble. I would at best put him as the Reds 5th starter.

Likes:

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by 757690

Being a veteran matters. Big time.

Not when the person you are comparing to has more talent and is better at this point in their careers.

I'm willing to take a bet most Reds posters would take Rosenthal over Broxton right now. Especially now that Broxton's average fast ball is at 93.7 MPH while Rosenthal's is 96.7 and has topped out at 101.4 this year. Broxton hasn't even had a SO/9 over 7.1 since 2010 where as Rosenthal SO/9 is at 12.3 this year. How does being a veteran give him the advantage over Rosenthal here? Does it add 3 more MPH to his fastball or does it give him automatically more talent? I never understood the "he's a veteran" argument in these discussions because that means little when we discuss talent or ability esp. if one player is a clearly a better option now over the other.

Last edited by MikeThierry; 05-14-2013 at 04:19 AM.

“Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

“I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

Re: More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Not when the person you are comparing to has more talent and is better at this point in their careers.

I'm willing to take a bet most Reds posters would take Rosenthal over Broxton right now. Especially now that Broxton's average fast ball is at 93.7 MPH while Rosenthal's is 96.7 and has topped out at 101.4 this year. Broxton hasn't even had a SO/9 over 7.1 since 2010 where as Rosenthal SO/9 is at 12.3 this year. How does being a veteran give him the advantage over Rosenthal here? Does it add 3 more MPH to his fastball or does it give him automatically more talent? I never understood the "he's a veteran" argument in these discussions because that means little when we discuss talent or ability esp. if one player is a clearly a better option now over the other.

Broxton and Rosenthal have nearly identical career ERA's and FIP's. Talent seems to be about the same. Being able to throw harder doesn't mean more talent or that you're better.

Broxton has been a solid MLB closer for four seasons, on two different teams. He has over 100 saves in his career. he would be the Reds closer if not for Chapman. In a big game, coming in to protect a led or a tie in the 8th, I want a guy who has the most experience, whose actually been a closer, over a kid who throws hard.

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