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Posts Tagged ‘art speculation’

Francis Newton Souza's Imbecile Girl in a Green Blouse (1957) will be on sale in Saffronart's summer auction 2010. Its estimated price is USD275,000-350,000.

A recent article published on livemint.comby the Wall Street Journal reported a rising trend of speculators’ confidence in the Indian art market, possibly as a result of a rebound in valuations of Indian artworks.

The article used the data in the latest report by London-based art market research firm ArtTacticto show that speculators’ confidence in the Indian art market is on the rise, after its significant drop in May last year as a result of the global art market downturn.

“The ArtTactic Speculation Barometer for Modern Indian Art shows a 28% increase since October 2009, and is now at 6.3, up from 4.9. This is the highest reading since ArtTactic started its survey in May 2007,” the article reported.

“In my reading of the Indian context, most collectors who entered the market over the last five-seven years were keen speculators.” Arvind Vijaymohan, Head of Indian arts advisory Japa Arts Pvt. Ltd (as quoted on livemint.com)

“…Vijaymohan says that in the current situation, there exists a section of speculators who consider this the perfect time to enter the market, and acquire works of modern Indian art at low values.” http://www.livemint.com

“For Anders Petterson, managing director of ArtTactic, the most revealing aspect of the report is the speed of the recovery in the modern art market even though it raises the threat of speculative buying.” http://www.livemint.com

“The Modern Indian Confidence Indicator is 51% higher than the equivalent confidence indicator for contemporary art. The report reasons that the established nature of the modern Indian market has created a sense of “safe haven” for many art buyers, a fact that is leading to its expansion.” http://www.livemint.com

The financial markets around the world are gradually recovering from a cardiac arrest, the banking system is being rebooted with help of government intervention and nationalisation. Most Western economies are heading for a recession. Emerging markets such as India and China have not been spared either, and the short-term economic outlook is highly uncertain.

Sentiment shift began May 2008

Now, this is the context in which the art market must be analysed. ArtTactic’s India Confidence survey in May 2008 signaled a shift in the sentiment, as respondents turned negative on the economy – 6 months after, the negative mood has now hit the Indian art market.

Confidence falls 23% May to September 2008

The recent confidence survey conducted in September 2008, showed that the overall ArtTactic Indian Art Market Confidence Indicator fell a further 23% from the last reading in May, which has resulted in a combined fall in the Indian Art Market Confidence of 34% since October 2007.

The ArtTactic Indian Art Market Indicator has been hit by 38% drop in the confidence in the economy, which is a further deterioration from the 54% decrease experienced between October 2007 and May 2008. Hence the economic component of the indicator has fallen 71% since October last year. This has to be viewed in the light of The Bombay Stock exchange (SENSEX) having lost more than 50% of its value between October 2007 and October 2008. With inflation levels at close to 12% and weaker industrial production numbers for August 2008, the Indian economy is feeling the gravity of the global crisis – a sentiment that is now starting to find its way into the heated Indian art market.

Speculation cited as cause

ArtTactic’s recent survey shows a significant fall of 36% in the Indian Contemporary Art Market Confidence Indicator, which reached its height in May 2008. The loss in confidence has been largely caused by speculation (73% of respondents saying this the biggest risk to the contemporary Indian art market), and rapidly rising prices of younger, still unproven contemporary artists, combined with a much weaker and uncertain economic climate.

Future?

So what does this mean for the future of the Indian art market? The changes are likely to take place on different levels. The most immediate; art prices and value of Indian art works will come under scrutiny, which is evident by recent results from auctions in London, New York and Hong Kong.

In the medium term there needs to be a re-assessment of the Indian art market, and questions around artistic, historic and cultural importance need to be debated, discussed and contextualised. The Indian art market desperately needs a non-market/ non-commercial reference frame for which it can questions its validity. The market needs more long-term players, particularly art collectors.

On the positive side, the Indian art market boom has laid the foundation for a healthier, second Indian art market cycle. The emergence of institutions such as the Devi Foundation are necessary, but one needs many more – as a single institution runs the risk of becoming an instrument for another speculative boom. The market needs a wide range of ‘voices’ that can maintain the checks and balances, and ensure that the value of art has a foundation outside the commercial market.

However, one should remain positive. Whilst the market will go up and down, artists and art will not cease to exist. Contrary, a difficult environment is likely to be more conducive for art production and creativity. It is in this new cycle, where the real, long term value of Indian art will be established.

Sotheby’s autumn sales in Hong Kong were grim apart from the South East Asian sale which provided some much needed relief. The success of the sale prompted an ebullient quip from Sotheby’s entertaining auctioneer Chin Yeow : “Is there a financial meltdown out there because I am not feeling it. The banks should ask our bidders if they need money!”

The sale included Malaysian, Filipino, Singaporean and Vietnamese art but was dominated by Indonesian works. Bidding was thin for Vietnamese lots and these attracted interest mainly from Paris. In contrast the Filipino and in particular the Indonesian lots attracted fierce bidding wars from bidders on all continents.

The works which attracted most interest included those by I Nyoman Masriadi, Agus Suwage, Rudy Mantofani and FX Harsano.

Two Indonesian markets: modern/colonial and contemporary/popular

Information about Indonesian art is notoriously difficult to come by. Helen Spanjaard, a Dutch art academic specialising in Indonesian art (one of only two in the world who speak English she says), explains that there are two distinct markets for Indonesian works – the colonial/Dutch influenced body of works eg Affandi and the new generation mostly born in the seventies.

“There is established buying support for the colonial works mostly from Chinese Indonesian collectors who compete with one another to drive up prices”. There is a second much more international market for the seventies generation artists. Dr Spanjaard notes that those works which are particularly popular are reminiscent of Chinese pop art or refer to popular cultural influences such as cartoons, superheros, flat stylisation, fantasy.

This was certainly borne out in the sale. Indonesian artist I Nyoman Masriadi’s The Man From Bantul (The Final Round), 2000, lot 838, an impressive triptych of a fight painted in a flat stylised manner sold for HK$7,820,000 (US$1,000,725) after lively bidding, five times its high estimate of HK$1-1.5 million.

A number of other works by Masriadi fetched impressive prices including Petualanganku Berakhir Setelah Ketemu Ibumu (My Adventure Ended After I Met Your Mother), which sold for HK$2,900,000 (US$371,113) (lot 895, est. HK$250/350,000), and Too Small, which achieved HK$1,820,000 (US$232,905) (lot 808, est. HK$250/350,000), both bringing many times their high estimates. These works featured flat images with cartoon-style poses and speech bubbles.

Sotheby’s again set a record for the work of Rudi Mantofani (b. 1973) following the record price achieved
in its series of spring 2008 sales last season. Pohon-Pohon Langit (Sky Trees) sold for HK$3,020,000
(US$386,469), bringing almost eight times its high estimate (lot 868, est. HK$280,000 – $380,000). Mantofani is known for his surreal fantasy landscapes in which for example trees are clouds and shadows are holes.

Artist records were also broken for Dipo Andy and Jumaldi Alfi. More abstract contemporary works and by for example Yunizar, Putu Satawijaya and the moderns also attracted interest but to a lesser extent.

Filipino artists

Filipino artists who did well in this sale included Geraldine Javier, Ronald Ventura, Annie Cabigting, Yasmin Sison and Lirio Salvador.

Why is South East Asian art so popular now?

Some commentators note that there is a structural issue which is affecting the art market. Today’s buyers are more speculative than at any time in the history of art buying and that the interest in South East Asian works is coming from former buyers of Chinese art who are looking for the next hot trend. Others note that the sale was a success because prices of South East Asian art are relatively cheap compared with other markets.