One gets the bends when news is breaking this fast, but I think we know where the the Reynolds High debate is headed:

A shooter arms himself to do a great deal of damage.

The shooter surprises his first unprepared and innocent victim(s).

The shooter confronts someone with the ability to fight and fire back.

At which point the shooter -- determined to maintain control to the bitter end -- quickly retreats to a dark and lonely place, and kills himself.

That pattern, as selective as those facts may be, is not unfamiliar to Oregonians. There are echoes of the December 2012 shooting at Clackamas Town Center, especially among gun enthusiasts.

And you can feel the debate taking shape: If this pattern holds, what kind of precaution or timely intervention is possible? Does it come in the form of armed guards at the door of every public school or far more intense levels of mental-health counseling and gun control?

Especially if we believe -- as Tony Farrenkopf, a Portland forensic psychologist, does -- that "we are not going to change crime by doing something with criminals. We do something about crime by not becoming victims."

No one yet knows all that Jared Michael Padgett carried to Reynolds High Tuesday morning, beyond that guitar case and duffel bag.

On Wednesday morning, Troutdale Police Chief Scott Anderson said "it would be inappropriate to discuss a possible motive for the murder" of 14-year-old Emilio Hoffman.

But Anderson provided the basics: Before hopping onto the school bus, Padgett armed himself with an "AR-15 type rife," a semi-automatic handgun, a knife and "nine loaded magazines with the capability of holding several hundred rounds."

Because Rispler was able to reach and warn school administrators, police officers subsequently confronted Padgett in a hallway.

There was an exchange of gunfire -- where and when is not clear -- and the shooter retreated "into a small restroom," where, Anderson said, he "died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound."

As I noted, there are echoes of the 2012 mayhem at Clackamas Town Center.

That shooter, Jacob Tyler Roberts, armed himself with a semi-automatic rifle.

He shot and killed Steven Forsyth and Cindy Yuille and wounded 15-year-old Kristina Shevchenko in the mall atrium.

Roberts reloaded at least once. He may have stopped shooting because the rifle jammed. Gun fans have long argued the shooting stopped because 22-year-old Nick Meli flashed his concealed weapon, but Meli's story about his day at the mall changed over time and a Clackamas County sheriff's spokesman insists there is nothing conclusive.

In any event, the shooter retreated to a first-floor hallway and killed himself.

"But (the shooters) are looking to hurt people. They're not looking for a gun fight. When the Clackamas shooter sees his target audience receding and sees law enforcement coming en masse into the mall, he retreats into the back hallway.

"He's lost his motive. There's nothing more to be gained. His plan was never to be a shoot-out hero. He's left with his suicidality, which is where most of these shooters start."

Farrenkopf is the public education coordinator for the Oregon Psychological Association. He began working with sex offenders for the state of Oregon, he says, in 1979. The more police reports he has read, he said, the more convinced he's become that "we're not going to make big inroads working on criminals.

"But we can do a lot better in helping people avoid and resist and escape crime."

How? How do we limit the number of potential victims for those bent on destruction? With another rush for concealed weapon permits or additional funds for the high-school counselors who might recognize when a 15-year-old has lost all hope?

With more guards on the ground? Fewer guns in the room? Or even the most tacit agreement that this can't go on?