I report on the business of sports for Forbes' SportsMoney group. My sports interests range from baseball and hockey to cricket and Formula One, though I specialize mainly in college football and basketball. Studying sports business interests me both as a writer and a sports fan, and I've found that digging through financial reports is often just as enjoyable as combing a box score. Reach me at csmith@forbes.com and follow me on Twitter @ChrisSmith813.

3/02/2012 @ 6:06PM1,563 views

New Orleans Saints Are Marching Out Of Contention

The New Orleans Saints have gone to the playoffs in four of the last six seasons, but that level of success may be long gone for a team that is suddenly in a tight spot.

Fans already had reason to worry when it was reported that the team and quarterback Drew Brees are $5 million apart in contract negotiations. Saints GM Mickey Loomis has also been discounting his quarterback’s abilities, referring to Drew Brees as just “very good,” not great. Remember that this is the same Drew Brees who led the Saints to their first and only Super Bowl championship in 2009. The same Drew Brees who has thrown for over 4,000 yards in each of his six seasons in New Orleans. The same Drew Brees who is, by almost any estimation, among the three best quarterbacks in the league.

If the team doesn’t come to terms with Brees before his current contract expires, then it is expected to place the franchise tag on him to ensure his services next season. But by taking that path, the Saints lose the opportunity to use the tag on Carl Nicks, one of the league’s best offensive linemen, or wide receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, who have been some of Brees’ favorite targets and a big reason for the quarterback’s success. Those personnel problems would have been a handful for any team, but they are just the start of the Saints’ off-season woes.

It has surfaced that an NFL investigation found that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and between 22 and 27 defensive players have had a bounty system for the last three seasons. That bounty system rewarded Saints defenders for injuring opposing players, and it even named specific targets like Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Saints managed to knock both quarterbacks out of playoff games during their 2009 Super Bowl run. Warner retired from the NFL that off-season, and many believe his injury was a contributing factor.

NFL punishment can, and likely will, include fines, suspensions and the forfeiture of draft picks. Fines are easily payable, but the loss of players might prove costly next season. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has predicted that punishment will be more severe than the league’s response to the Patriots’ videotaping scandal in 2007, after which New England was stripped of its first round pick in the 2008 draft.

A safe prediction: Saints will be disciplined far worse than the Patriots were for Spygate.

Add it all up, and it looks like the Saints’ run as one of the NFC’s elite teams may be over and done with. Despite restructuring Will Smith’s contract, the team will still have trouble fitting all of last year’s starters under the salary cap, and the loss of draft picks makes replacing those players all the more difficult. Division rivals in the NFC South also aren’t making life any easier: the Atlanta Falcons are a perennial playoff contender, and Cam Newton’s Panthers are no longer a scheduled speed bump. The Saints might just need some heavenly help if they hope to compete next season.

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