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September 24, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 3: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

GREEN BAY
PACKERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The
Green Bay Packers do a lot of things well, on and off the field, too many to
list here. One thing they don’t do well is defend the run. Their numbers from
last season show that they gave up 111.8 rushing yards per game, 14th
in the league, a figure that’s acceptable when Aaron Rodgers is your
quarterback.

However,
that YPG average hides a more telling statistic. They allowed 4.7 yards per
rushing attempt, 26th in the NFL, and through two games this season,
they’re worse.

The
Packers are yielding a mighty 140 rushing yards per game (27th) at
5.1 yards per attempt (30th), placing them above only the Bengals
and Rams in the latter category.

As
we’re all well aware, Seattle wants to run the football, hard. They want to
punish the other team and even Golden Tate personified that attitude last
Sunday when he laid THAT block on Sean Lee, helping Russell Wilson to a first
down. He should’ve been flagged for the hit under the current rules, which is
why these replacement officials need to be replaced themselves, but that’s
another argument for another site.

We
got away with one there, but it’s a hit that’s reverberated around the league
all week and will be fresh in the memory of every home fan attending the game
on Monday night and when Wilson is forced to leave the pocket, not only will we
be watching him, some of us will also have an eye out for the next crushing
(hopefully legal) block. The broader point I’m making is that the Seahawks
crowd would be in this one anyway. When they’re still pumped at the Tate hit
and are ‘welcoming’ Rodgers and a franchise such as this, there will be times
in the game when the Packers won’t believe they’re in a football stadium. Just
look around you, fellas, you won’t experience this very often.

While
Seattle can boast rushing for an average of 148.5 yards over the first two
games (7th), the yards per carry of 4.0 doesn’t pierce the top 10
(12th), but that won’t necessarily be at the forefront of the minds
of the Packers D. No, they’ll know that in the second half alone against Dallas
last week, Marshawn Lynch ran for 104 yards as the Seahawks went on drives of
90 and 88 yards as they pounded the Cowboys into the CenturyLink turf; Tate was
merely getting some of that action for himself, too.

If
the Seahawks are to cover the spread, both the running game and the crowd will
need to be major contributing factors. Seattle can be backed +3.5 while those
wishing to back the Pack can have them -3. It’s right that there’s not really
any disparity in the lines available as a strong case can be made for the
Seahawks to win this one straight up.

Greg
Jennings is officially listed as questionable for Green Bay, but I think it’s
fair to rate him as probable as he “looked good today (Saturday)” according to
coach Mike McCarthy. Although he missed the mauling dished out to the Bears
last week, Jennings wasn’t missed at all as the Packers’ defense did most of
the hard work. This was a unit riled and motivated to the hilt with the “good
luck” wishes of Jay Cutler ringing in their ears and they shoved those words
straight back down his throat...and then some.

Cutler’s
a loose cannon and the Seahawks haven’t reverted to such bone-headed displays
of foolery this week, a good thing really.

Clay
Matthews has six sacks over two games and he can be expected to wreak similar
havoc on Monday, but Seattle’s offensive line devalued DeMarcus Ware’s output to
almost non-existent last Sunday so it’s not as though they won’t know what to
expect this week.

As
stout as Seattle is defensively while also being able to rely on a brutal
pairing at running back, particularly as the game wears on, they rank dead last
in passing offense...yes lower even than Jacksonville. However, this actually
isn’t a problem and nobody in the Pacific Northwest is anywhere close to
hitting the panic button.

Using
Jacksonville as an example, Blaine Gabbert’s problems at quarterback are well
documented and his every mistake is dissected at length. Well, some used to do
that. Many have now given up on him and think the Jaguars should be thinking of
replacing him in 2013.

Wilson
is a different proposition in Seattle. He shows remarkable poise for a rookie,
is a leader of men and possesses an attention to detail that rivals Peyton
Manning. In fact, for everything you need to know on this remarkable young man,
all you need do is read Elizabeth Merrill’s article on Wilson on espn.com. It
makes for astonishing reading and I’ve rarely read anything as insightful on a
football player.

Having
read it, you realise we’re in very safe hands in Seattle and drafting him was a
masterstroke.

I
seriously underestimated the Seahawks last week and won’t be doing the same
this week. In addition to the Seahawks being able to run the ball on the
Packers and the effect of the ‘12th Man’ on a Monday night, this is
also Green Bay’s first road game of the season and anything San Francisco were
able to do on opening weekend, Seattle can do this week.