Sunday, January 15, 2017

Wintry Mix Monday Night. Very Mild Second Half of January

Wintry Mix Moves In Late Monday - AM Tuesday

The same storm system that brought significant icing across the Central U.S. over the weekend, will move into southern Minnesota late Monday - AM Tuesday. A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow will lead to difficult driving conditions Monday and AM Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch that was in effect for parts of the region has been canceled due to the system not being quite as impressive as it looked before. With that said, up to 0.2" ice and up to 3" of snow may be possible in some locations as the storm pushes through. Here's an excerpt from the NWS Twin Cities regarding the system:

"A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow will lead to slick roads and hazardous travel conditions Monday afternoon through Monday night. After that, it's a January thaw!"

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JAMES TO OWATONNA. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN CANCELED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* TOTAL WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

Simulated Radar

Here's the simulated radar as our next storm system surges north into the Upper Midwest Monday through AM Tuesday. Unfortunately, this is another storm that will bring a multitude of different precipitation types to the area with a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Freezing rain will be a major travel concern where some locations could see up to 0.2' ice across parts of southern MN. There may also be some slushy snow accumulations (1" to 3") on the colder side of the storm as it lifts northeast through the early week time frame.

WOW! What a weekend! While some flock to sunny beaches in Mexico or Hawaii at this time of year, others flourish in the wintry Minnesota landscape. Whether you took to the trails or hit the pond, I hope you enjoyed it. Unfortunately, weather conditions sour for outdoor activities this week.

A devastating ice event will wrap up in the Central U.S. early this week. Widespread half to near three-quarter inch ice tallies have left parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska in a real mess. That same storm grazes southern Minnesota with a light wintry mix late Monday into early Tuesday. An icy, slushy coating may be possible across parts of southern Minnesota just in time for the Tuesday morning commute.

After that, temperatures warm to well above average levels with highs in the 40s by the end of the week. Extended forecasts keep us at above average temps through much of the second half of the month. Our dwindling snow pack will likely become crusty over the next few days.

My kids will once again have a reason to blame me for the weather.
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As our next system approaches from the South on Monday and will be with us through early Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations look fairly light and slushy. There may be a narrow band of 1" to 2" with a few isolated 3" tallies. Unfortunately, this may also be accompanied by some icing (0.1" to 0.2")

Extended Temperature Outlook for Minneapolis

Here's the temperature outlook through January 23rd, which shows a VERY mild trend heading into the week ahead with highs in the 30s and even 40s by next weekend! With several days above freezing, our snow pack will likely take a big hit... we may also have a fog concerns with melting snow and added moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Upper Midwest from January 25th to January 29th. With that said, extended models are suggesting temperatures returning to near normal levels by the end of the month. Looking ahead, there doesn't appear to be any major cold snaps brewing over the next couple of weeks.

Here's the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, which takes us into the end of January. Note that warmer than average temperatures continue across the Eastern U.S., while cold than average temperatures will move into the Western U.S.

National Temp Outlook

Take a look at the temperature anomaly through Monday, January 23rd. Note that the Eastern half of the country looks to stay warmer than average through the entire time period. Late January appears to host colder than average weather across the western half of the country.

Highs From Average Thursday

Take a look at how much warmer than average much of the nation will be on Thursday. Just about everyone from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard will be at least 10F to near 20F above average!

Major Ice Event Central US

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Dodge City and Wichita, KS for the pictures below, which shows the icing that took place there through the weekend. This has been a crippling event for some folks in the Central Plains with widespread power outages and even some fatalities. Note that just 1/4" of ice can add 500 lbs. of weight to a span of power lines... this additional weight is what causes trees and power lines to come down.

Ice Accumulations

Here's a look at the ice accumulations across the region from Saturday into Sunday. Note that there were two reports of 1" ice accumulations; one in Oklahoma and one in Nebraska!

Major Ice Event Central US

Take a look at all the winter weather headlines across the country and note the deep purple coloring from Kansas to Nebraska and Iowa. Those are Ice Storm warnings, where widespread 1/2" to 3/4" of ice or more could accumulate, which will continue to cause major travel impacts and even power outages.

Icing Potential

Here's the icing potential in Kansas through Tuesday, which suggests more widespread 1/4" to 1/2" ice accumulations. This will cause more major travel issues and power outages. Kansas and Nebraksa will continue to see some of the worst icing this system has to offer, but widespread 1/4" to near 1/2" amounts across parts of northern Missouri and Iowa will still create major issues.

Simulate Radar

Heres' the simulated radar from AM Monday to PM Tuesday, which shows icy rains tapering across the Central Plains, while scattered showers and isolated strong storms continue across the Southern U.S. through early next week.

Severe Storm Threats

As the storm system slowly moves northeast through the Central U.S., strong to severe storms will also develop on the southern flank of this storm system. Below are the severe storm outlooks for Monday and Tuesday. Note that a MARGINAL Risk of severe weather has been issued across parts of Lower Mississippi Valley for the potential of large hail and wind damage.

Here's the national weather outlook through the middle part of the week, which shows the large storm system in the Central U.S. responsible for major icing concerns in the middle part of the country. The ice event will wrap up early in the week, but it will also bring widely scattered showers and storms to the Southern U.S. with isolated strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Also note the heavier moisture returning to the Pacific Northwest.

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

According to NOAA's PC, the 7 day precipitation forecast suggests widespread 1" to 3"+ rainfall amounts across the Southern U.S.. Also note the heavy moisture moving back into the West U.S., especially along the West Coast. Some 6" to 12"+ liquid tallies can't be ruled out from northern California to western Oregon and western Washington. There may even be some 1" to 2" tallies across parts of southern California through next weekend.

Snowfall Potential

The extended forecast calls for additional heavy moisture in the Western U.S. with heavy snow in the high elevations. Note that widespread heavy snow looks to fall from the Cascades to the Sierra Nevada Range to parts of the Rockies. The additional heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range is wonderful news for the upcoming water supply during the summer months for parts of California.

Take a look at the beautiful snow covered landscape from Yosemite National Park. This webcam from Half Dome shows how how incredibly beautiful the park can be in the winter when snow is present!

California Snow Comparison

California has been a significant drought over the last several years, but has made some improvements thanks to recent heavy precipitation. Take a look at the snow depth comparison from January 14th, 2014 vs 2017. Currently, FEET of snow is on the ground vs the very little snow pack that was on the ground in 2014 and in 2015.

"Vast icy rock peaks tower above Argentina's Carlini research base in Antarctica. But scientists who have worked here for decades say the glaciers are less icy than they once were. For international experts stationed at the base, the frozen southern continent is a good gauge of climate change. "When I used to come to Antarctica in the 1990s, it never used to rain," said Rodolfo Sanchez, director of the Argentine Antarctic Institute (IAA). "Now it rains regularly—instead of snowing," he told AFP during an Argentine government visit to King George Island, off the tip of the western Antarctic peninsula. Scientists monitoring conditions at the base say the average temperature here has increased by 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past century."

"After a week of being walloped by major storms that have dumped copious rain and snow on the state, California is finally emerging from a deep, years-long drought. Ski resorts in the Sierra Nevada mountains are flush with snow, while key reservoirs have filled back up. On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor erased all drought in Northern California from the map and dialed back the severity over the southern half of the state. There are, of course, still major deficits in groundwater levels that could take decades to replace and lingering ecological impacts, several experts said, but they agreed the situation had much improved. “I think overall we’ve gotten through this drought amazingly well,” Jay Lund, a water resources analyst at the University of California, Davis, said. One key concern going forward is how global warming may alter California’s notoriously boom-or-bust climate: Does it mean more, and more intense, drought? Will it strengthen the storms that bring the state most of its water? The current view is that it could mean both, effectively amping up the already wild variation the state experiences, though there is still uncertainty about some of the potential impacts of warming."

The rise of the machines isn’t the biggest threat to humanity. It’s climate change, extreme weather and other environmental factors. The World Economic Forum surveyed 750 experts on what the most likely and impactful risks facing humanity are in 2017. In a report released Thursday, they ranked extreme weather as the most likely risk and the second-most impactful, trailing only the use of weapons of mass destruction. Climate change is responsible for driving an increase in the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events, notably heat waves. Failing to adapt to or mitigate climate change and a host of other climate-connected risks including water and food crises and involuntary migration also rank in the top 10.