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Investors are often told that market timing is a fools game; time in the market beats timing the market. My new research on the well known Halloween Indicators shows that not only is market timing possible, but when combined with my 17.6 Year Stock market Cycle, it has lead to an incredible outperformance versus a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) buy and hold strategy.

The graph above, taken from my original research, shows that a long/cash strategy returns 19 times the DJIA return since 1897, whereas a long/short strategy returns 121 times the DJIA return over the same period. This also beats other well known Halloween based strategies as well. Full details of teh strategy and results are here.

Now that we are in October and stock markets are looking increasingly uncertain, it is worth noting that 31 October 2013 is the next buy date for this strategy.

About Kerry Balenthiran

Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle?

Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?