SINGAPORE - With a name like that, one would expect Christmas Island to bear many gifts. It has not disappointed.

Among its treasures is the red crab (Gecarcoidea natalis) - a unique crustacean found only on Christmas Island (it is in the Indian ocean) and nowhere else in the world. These creatures move en masse from forest to sea to spawn once a year, carpeting roads and homes a bright red, in a phenomenon that famed naturalist Sir David Attenborough reportedly regards as one of the most "astonishing and wonderful" sights.

But Christmas Island, located about an hour's flight from Jakarta, has more surprises in store, as Singapore scientists are discovering. Over four expeditions since 2010, the team has already discovered 10 species of crabs and prawns on Christmas Island, including the blue crab and the yellow-eye crab, which also cannot be found anywhere else in the world.

This festive season, people can get a glimpse of these creatures without having to travel all the way to the island that once belonged to Singapore. Specimens of the unique creatures are on display at the Lee Kong Chian Natural History Museum, in a temporary exhibition called Christmas Island Red launched on Monday (Dec 18).
"It highlights the historical links between both islands - Singapore and Christmas Island - why conservation is important, and the discoveries we've made. Our predecessors in the 1930s and 1950s described many new species and we continue with this tradition," said crab expert and museum head Peter Ng, who led the expeditions.

Christmas Island was named on Christmas Day 1643, and was part of Singapore until 1957, when it was sold by the British to the Australian government for 2.9 million pounds, according to the website of the Christmas Island Tourism Association. The official transfer took place in 1958.

But close ties remained between the Republic and Christmas Island, which has a population of about 2,000, especially on the research front. More expeditions are being planned for the years ahead.

"There was the assumption that the island's fauna was well-known, as it is located so close to Indonesia. But we found that there is still so many things left to discover," said Professor Ng. "There have been about 400 to 500 species recorded on the island, but I think that is a gross underestimate because the island is actually not easy to survey as it has a very rugged landscape - land and sea!"

Despite its welcoming name, Christmas Island is surrounded by inhospitable rocky cliffs which hampered early explorers. But Prof Ng and his team saw opportunity in adversity.

"I was intrigued why no one had found a freshwater cave crab even though the island had so many limestone caves. So I looked for caves with the Australian Parks people, went into them, laid traps... and lo and behold we caught two new species of crabs - Orcovita hicksi and Orcovita orchardorum, and a new prawn (Macrobrachium xmas). Why had no one caught them before? Because they are few and scattered in a big cave system. Traps worked best!"

Whale sharks feeding on crab larvae

But Prof Ng considers his best discovery on the island to be the blue crab, which has a unique shell the colour of the sky. The crab was previously thought to be a unique colour form of the widely distributed land crab, Discoplax hirtipes. But in 2012, Prof Ng and crustacean expert Peter Davie from the Queensland Museum discovered otherwise, after extensive study of museum and fresh specimens from Christmas Island and the and the whole Indo-West Pacific region.

The Christmas Island blue crab was previously thought to be an aberrant colour form of the land crab, or just an island peculiarity. PHOTO: TAN HEOK HUI
"I had long known the blue crab was a problem," said Prof Ng. "I have been studying these crabs for the better part of a decade. When you put all the specimens from all over together, the differences are clear. And genetics has confirmed what we have seen." Discoveries are not always the result of breaking new ground, finding new habitats, or luck, he said.

"Very often, discoveries are the result of cumulative knowledge and patience - to slowly build up a case, build up the evidence and the comparative material. It comes to a prepared mind and a careful buildup. The blue crab, which we named Discoplax celeste is such a discovery."

Australian High Commissioner Bruce Gosper, who was at the launch of the exhibition on Monday, said: "I know that Singapore has been doing much work on Christmas Island over a number of years to chart that biodiversity... The work we're doing in this area is something that's been enhanced in recent years through the comprehensive strategic partnership between Australia and Singapore."

SUSTAINABILITY reporting among Singapore-listed companies has begun, though more needs to be done in terms of recognising climate change as a financial risk.

In Singapore, 84 per cent of the largest companies are now reporting on corporate responsibility (CR), faring better than the global average of 72 per cent, according to a KPMG survey on CR reporting.

This comes after the Singapore Exchange (SGX) implemented a mandate last year for listed firms to include sustainability reporting on a "comply or explain" basis for the financial year ending on, or after Dec 31, 2017.
Said KPMG Singapore's head of sustainability advisory and assurance, Ian Hong: "Singapore's high percentage could be attributed to the high standards set under its code of corporate governance that elaborate the board's role to include a consideration of sustainability issues such as environmental and social factors, as part of its strategic formulation."

That said, a surprising finding from the survey is that 75 per cent of the top 100 companies in Singapore have yet to address the financial risks stemming from climate change in their annual financial reports. In addition, only 17 per cent of local firms have set carbon reduction targets, faring lower than the global rate of 50 per cent.

Globally, five economies stand out with a majority of their top 100 companies acknowledging climate change as a financial risk in their annual reports. They are: Taiwan (88 companies), France (76 companies), South Africa (61 companies), the US (53 companies) and Canada (52 companies).

"Going forward, disclosures surrounding climate risk will expand further due to the increasing expectations of securities regulators, the investor community and other stakeholders. We encourage companies to start with a full assessment of where climate-related risk lies within the organisation and assess the current state of their processes and data quality for identifying and reporting on such risks," said Mr Hong.

He added that CR reports should be used as a tool to present an organisation's true value beyond its financial performance.

"Boards can also benefit from recognising the risks and opportunities emerging from climate change and sustainability, and integrating them within their company's overall corporate strategy," Mr Hong added.

Last month, Singapore's environment and water resources minister, Masagos Zulkifli, announced that the Republic will designate 2018 as the Year of Climate Action. Separately, a carbon tax of between S$10 and S$20 per tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be imposed from 2019. The tax will be applied upstream on large emitters, such as power stations and other large industrial facilities that directly emit GHGs.

The KPMG Survey of Corporate Responsibility Reporting 2017 studied annual financial and CR reports from the 100 largest companies by revenue in 49 countries. The survey also looked at trends in CR reporting, including reporting on the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

SUSTAINABILITY reporting among Singapore-listed companies has begun, but more needs to be done in terms of recognising climate change as a financial risk, says a KPMG survey on corporate responsibility (CR) reporting.

According to the report, 84 per cent of the largest companies in Singapore are now undertaking CR reporting, faring better than the global average of 72 per cent. This comes as the Singapore Exchange (SGX) implemented a mandate last year for listed firms to include sustainability reporting on a "comply or explain" basis for the financial year ending on, or after Dec 31, 2017.

Said KPMG Singapore's head of sustainability advisory and assurance, Ian Hong: "Singapore's high percentage could be attributed to the high standards set under its code of corporate governance, that elaborates the board's role to include sustainability issues, such as environmental and social factors as part of its strategic formulation."

That being said, a surprising finding from the survey is that 75 per cent of the top 100 companies in Singapore have yet to address the financial risks stemming from climate change in their annual reports.

Additionally, only 17 per cent of local firms have set carbon reduction targets, which pales in comparison to the global rate of 50 per cent.

Globally, five economies stand out with majority of their top 100 companies acknowledging climate change as a financial risk in their annual reports. They are: Taiwan (88 companies), France (76 companies), South Africa (61 companies), the US (53 companies) and Canada (52 companies), KPMG said.

"Going forward, disclosures surrounding climate risk will expand further due to the increasing expectations of securities regulators, the investor community, and other stakeholders. We encourage companies to start with a full assessment of where climate-related risk lies within the organisation, and assess the current state of their processes and data quality for identifying and reporting on such risks," said Mr Hong.

He added that CR reports should be used as a tool to present an organisation's true value, beyond its financial performance.

Commenting on what the survey's findings mean for businesses, global head of KPMG Sustainability Services, José Luis Blasco said: "Firstly, get ready for more reporting regulation because it is on the way. Secondly, be clear that reporting integration is the new normal. . . Finally, remember that from here on, it's all about reporting your impact, not just statistics."

Just last month, Singapore's environment and water resources minister, Masagos Zulkifli, announced that the Republic will designate 2018 as the Year of Climate Action.

Separately, a carbon tax of between S$10 and S$20 per tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be imposed from 2019. For now, the tax will be applied upstream on large emitters, such as power stations and other industrial facilities that directly emit GHGs.

The KPMG Survey of Corporate Responsibility Reporting 2017 studied annual financial and CR reports from the 100 largest companies by revenue in 49 countries.

SINGAPORE — In a move welcomed by animal welfare groups, the authorities will embark on a nationwide effort to sterilise the bulk of about 7,000 street dogs in Singapore from the second half of next year.

The five-year programme will be funded by the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA), with the support of 11 animal welfare groups such as Action for Singapore Dogs (ASD), SOSD, Animal Lovers League and Exclusively Mongrels.

The target is to sterilise more than 70 per cent of the stray dog population here, said the AVA. Based on scientific literature and modelling, this rate is needed to stabilise the population before it begins to decrease.

The AVA’s announcement on Thursday (Dec 21) was dubbed a “game changer” by Dr Jaipal Singh Gill, executive director of the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, one of the participating groups.
For 30 years, various groups here have carried out sterilisation of stray dogs but efforts have not been large-scale or concerted, said SOSD president Siew Tuck Wah.

“We believe that this will be the turning point for stray animal management in Singapore,” said Dr Siew.

Sterilisation costs are hefty for independent groups. AVA’s funding would relieve groups of the cost of pre- and post-surgery care, as well as trapping of the animals, said president of Voices for Animals Derrick Tan.

Hiring dog trappers costs between S$300 to S$600, while sterilisation costs about S$200 to S$300 per animal, with some vets providing subsidies, said co-founder of Animal Lovers League Mohan Div.

Going by a back-of-the-envelope calculation, sterilisation costs alone of about 4,900 stray dogs – 70 per cent of the estimated population – would add up to about S$980,000 to S$1.47 million.

The AVA said it is working out the detailed costs of the initiative. “If stray dog numbers can be reduced in the long run, resources to be spent thereafter will be saved,” said a spokesperson.

The AVA’s budget for animal management operations in 2016 was S$800,000, said then-Senior Minister of State for National Development Desmond Lee in Parliament in February. Culling is a last resort, he said.

Under the new Trap-Neuter-Release-Manage programme, stray dogs will be humanely caught and sterilised and as many as possible will be rehomed. Those that cannot be rehomed will be released in “suitable locations” to live out their lives, said the AVA.

The animal welfare groups will help galvanise volunteers and stray feeders.

Mr Mohan said space to house the dogs temporarily could be a challenge, while ASD president Ricky Yeo said getting the buy-in of stakeholders such as stray feeders may be difficult.

“The people on the ground, the feeders, are still suspicious of the government’s real intentions, so the animal welfare groups will have to be the mediators, persuading them and rallying them to understand that this is for the greater good, that with this (programme), there will be much less culling or no culling in the future,” he said.

The results of current animal management measures show they have not been effective in reducing the stray population, added Mr Yeo. “Rather, it is just maintaining it. Rather than putting an expensive plaster on a festering wound, it is well-worth investing in a long-term solution, where tangible objectives can be met.”

From ASD’s experience with a similar Jurong Island project, Mr Yeo reckoned a combination of methods to trap the dogs would be needed, as the creatures wised up quickly to the use of cages.

The AVA, which began seeking feedback on the programme from the groups and vets in June, is in the midst of engaging them on operational aspects, such as areas that each group would oversee.

The programme will be “complemented by regulation of the pet industry to enhance traceability of dogs, control over import and export of pet dogs, licensing of pet dogs at source and tough penalties on pet abandonment”, said Ms Jessica Kwok, group director of AVA’s animal management group.

“We would also like to assure the public that during the implementation of this programme, AVA will continue to safeguard public health and safety,” she said.

SINGAPORE: The Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority of Singapore (AVA) said on Thursday (Dec 21) it is working closely with animal welfare groups (AWGs) and veterinarians to embark on a five-year Trap-Neuter-Release-Manage (TNRM) programme to manage the stray dog population in Singapore.

This is AVA's first sterilisation programme for stray dogs, the authority said, stressing that it is a "humane and science-based method" to reduce the stray dog population in the country.

"This will be done by humanely catching stray dogs and sterilising them. Efforts will be made to rehome as many of the sterilised animals as possible," AVA said.

AVA added that dogs that are unable to be rehomed will be released at suitable locations to live out their lives naturally.

The authority has set a target to sterilise more than 70 per cent of the stray dogs in Singapore within five years.

"Based on scientific literature and mathematical modelling, a sustained sterilisation rate of 70 per cent or more is necessary to stabilise a stray dog population, before it begins to come down," AVA said.

Ms Jessica Kwok, group director of AVA’s animal management group, said the sterilisation programme is a "humane and sustainable solution" to manage stray dogs in Singapore.

"The TNRM programme will be complemented by regulation of the pet industry to enhance traceability of dogs, control over import and export of pet dogs, licensing of pet dogs at source, and tough penalties on pet abandonment," Ms Kwok said.

"We would also like to assure the public that during the implementation of this programme, AVA will continue to safeguard public health and safety,” she added.

The programme is slated to start in the second half of 2018.

PROGRAMME 'STRONGLY SUPPORTED' BY ANIMAL WELFARE GROUPS

AVA said it began seeking feedback and suggestions from animal welfare groups and the veterinary community on the initiative from June this year, and has received strong support from these organisations.

Eleven animal welfare groups have agreed to participate in the programme, AVA added.

AVA said these groups will play a "crucial supportive and facilitative role" in the implementation of this programme by, for example, helping to galvanise stray feeders and volunteers.

AVA noted that some welfare groups have also been conducting their own sterilisation programmes in localised areas for many years.

"Their dedication and expertise will be incorporated into this nationwide approach," AVA said.

Commenting on the programme, executive director of SPCA Jaipal Singh Gill called it a "game changer for street dogs in Singapore" and his organisation was "thrilled" with the implementation.

"We are very pleased to see so many stakeholders, including the government, animal welfare groups and veterinarians, coming together with a shared vision and approach to humanely reduce the street dog population,” Dr Singh said.

In a Facebook post on Thursday, Minister for Social and Family Development Desmond Lee said that through this programme, the government hopes to manage Singapore’s stray dog issue in "a humane manner, based on science and data, and in the spirit of community partnership".

"This work will not be easy. We need the patience and support of the public, and the partnership of other animal welfare groups, vets and responsible animal feeders," said Mr Lee, who is also Second Minister for National Development.

SINGAPORE - To better manage the stray dog population in Singapore, the Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority (AVA) will be rolling out a five-year programme aimed at sterilising 70 per cent of such dogs here.

In a statement on Thursday (Dec 21), the authority said that it will be working with animal welfare groups and veterinarians in the new Trap-Neuter-Release-Manage programme, slated to start in the second half of 2018.

This is the first time that such a scheme for stray dogs has been rolled out at a national level. Previously, dog welfare groups, fearing that culling may be used as a method of animal population control, conducted such programmes on their own initiative. There is already a national trap-neuter-release programme for stray cats, which was rolled out islandwide in 2014.

The programme will involve humanely catching stray dogs and sterilising them, with efforts made to rehome as many of the sterilised animals as possible, AVA said. Those that cannot berehomed will be released at suitable locations to live out their lives naturally.

AVA said that this is a humane and science-based method to reduce the number of stray dogs here. These dogs, who live in harsh and difficult conditions, face various risks, such as from traffic, starvation and disease.

"Stray dogs who return to their feral instincts can potentially pose a danger to the public, especially when in packs. Stray dogs are also a potential reservoir of disease like rabies," it added.

AVA is targeting to sterilise more than 70 per cent of the stray dogs here in five years. It estimates that there are currently about 7,000 stray dogs in Singapore

According to Animal Lovers League co-founder Mohan Div, strays are mostly found at industrial areas and construction sites.

"A trap-neuter-release programme is a win-win situation: It allows existing dogs to live out their lives in their habitats, takes future generations of dogs off the streets where they may suffer, and overall, helps reduce the number of stray dogs in Singapore," he said.

Citing scientific literature and mathematical modelling, AVA said a sustained sterilisation rate of 70 per cent or more is necessary to stabilise a stray dog population, before it can begin to decrease.

She said that the programme will be complemented by regulation of the pet industry. This aims to make dogs more easily traceable, exercise control over import and export of pet dogs and ensure that pet dogs are licensed at the source. There will also be tough penalties for abandoning dogs.

Several animal welfare groups and the veterinary community have shown strong support for the programme, AVA said.

Mr Derrick Tan, founder of the animal shelter Voices for Animals, said the latest initiative was a step in the right direction, as it involves the authorities working closely with animal welfare groups.

A standard operating procedure is now being worked out between the authorities and the animal groups, which will detail the steps that should be taken after a dog is trapped. This involves procedures such as taking the dog for health checks and vaccinations.

The plan is also to get the various animal welfare groups to be involved in the management of certain areas after dogs are released into the environment. This will ensure that all released dogs are accounted for. Animal welfare groups will also be able to mediate any potential human-wildlife conflict that should arise if dogs are released back into the environment.

"There is a difference between animal welfare groups stepping in to respond to complaints from people in an area, and in AVA doing so. If animal welfare groups are the first responders, we could do our best to mediate conflict," said Mr Tan.

Some 11 groups have committed to join in the programme and AVA said that these groups play a crucial supportive and facilitative role. Animal welfare groups or those who wish to participate in the programme can contact AVA on 1800-476-1600.

For instance, they will be help to galvanise stray feeders and volunteers in these efforts.

The Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (SPCA) executive director Jaipal Singh Gill said that he was thrilled to learn of the programme and called it "a game changer for street dogs in Singapore".

SOSD president Siew Tuck Wah noted that various animal welfare groups have carried out sterilisation of stray dogs for the past 30 years, but there has never been a concerted, large-scale effort such as this programme.

Mr Desmond Lee, Minister for Social and Family Development and Second Minister for National Development, said in a Facebook post on Thursday evening that many animal welfare groups have already adopted trap, neuter, release and manage programmes on their own.

“AVA wants to take this effort further, and has been discussing with the animal welfare groups and the Singapore Veterinary Association on how to replicate the success of these localised efforts on a wider scale... through this programme, we hope to manage Singapore’s stray dog issue in a humane manner, based on science and data, and in the spirit of community partnership.”

Separately, AVA is working with a team of academics from Singapore and Australia on a three-year stray dog study which started in 2015.

The scientific study, which involves attaching GPS collars on dogs, aims to establish an estimate of the stray dog population size in Singapore, and to understand its ecology. "Some of the ecological and biological aspects being looked at include the dogs' range size, activity patterns, mortality and reproductive rates," said AVA.

In conjunction with AVA's study, researchers from the National Institute of Education are helping the National Parks Board look into the impact of stray dogs on native biodiversity in the nature reserve, including at Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve.

Joint effort to manage stray dog population in Singapore
AVA is working with animal welfare groups and vets on 5-year sterilisation programme
Audrey Tan Straits Times 22 Dec 17;

The Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA) will be rolling out a five-year sterilisation programme for stray dogs in the second half of next year to manage their numbers more humanely.

The programme aims to sterilise 70 per cent of the stray dogs roaming Singapore's streets.

AVA said yesterday it will work with animal welfare groups and veterinarians on the trap-neuter-release-manage programme. Efforts will also be made to rehome as many such animals as possible. Dogs deemed unsuitable for rehoming will be released at chosen locations to live out their lives.

This is the first time that such a scheme for stray dogs has been rolled out at a national level. Previously, dog welfare groups, fearing that culling may be used to control the animal population, conducted such programmes on their own.

There is already a national trap-neuter-release effort for stray cats, rolled out islandwide in 2014.

On the streets, dogs live in harsh and difficult conditions and face risks from traffic, starvation and disease. "Stray dogs who return to their feral instincts can potentially pose a danger to the public, especially when in packs. They are also a potential reservoir of disease like rabies," said AVA.

It estimates that there are currently about 7,000 stray dogs here and aims to sterilise 70 per cent of them in five years.

AVA, citing scientific literature and mathematical modelling, said a sustained sterilisation rate of 70 per cent or more is necessary to stabilise a stray dog population, before it can begin to decrease.

Mr Derrick Tan, founder of the animal shelter Voices for Animals, told The Straits Times that a standard operating procedure is being worked out between the authorities and the animal welfare groups, which will detail the steps that should be taken after a dog is trapped. This involves procedures such as taking the dog for health checks and vaccinations.

The plan is also to get the various animal welfare groups involved in the management of certain areas after dogs are released into the environment. This will ensure that all released dogs are accounted for.

Animal welfare groups will also be able to mediate any potential human-wildlife conflict that should arise if dogs are released back into the environment.

"There is a difference between animal welfare groups stepping in to respond to complaints from people, and AVA doing so.

"If animal welfare groups are the first responders, we could do our best to mediate conflict before it escalates," said Mr Tan.

AVA has been engaging with the animal welfare groups and veterinarians since June this year.

Animal welfare groups or those who wish to participate in the programme can contact AVA on 1800-476-1600.

Mr Desmond Lee, Minister for Social and Family Development and Second Minister for National Development, said in a Facebook post yesterday that many animal welfare groups have already adopted trap, neuter, release and manage programmes on their own.

He wrote: "AVA wants to take this effort further... Through this programme, we hope to manage Singapore's stray dog issue in a humane manner, based on science and data, and in the spirit of community partnership."

"It allows existing dogs to live out their lives in their habitats, takes future generations of dogs off the streets where they may suffer and, overall, helps reduce the number of stray dogs in Singapore," he told The Straits Times.

AVA estimates that there are now 7,000 stray dogs in Singapore. The latest initiative aims to sterilise at least 70 per cent of them.

Dr Jaipal Singh Gill, executive director of the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, said that he was thrilled to learn of the programme and called it "a game changer for street dogs in Singapore".

He said: "We are very pleased to see so many stakeholders, including the Government, animal welfare groups and veterinarians, coming together with a shared vision and approach to humanely reduce the street dog population."

Dr Siew Tuck Wah, president of animal welfare group SOSD, said that various animal welfare groups have carried out sterilisation of stray dogs over the past 30 years, but there has never been a concerted, large-scale effort such as now.

"This effort also proves that our society is evolving into a more compassionate, kinder one which cares not only for its human residents but for its animals as well," he added.

Some 11 groups have joined the programme.

Animal welfare groups or those who wish to participate in the programme can contact AVA on 1800-476-1600.

Audrey Tan

Rehoming dogs is still main challenge
Fewer than half of dogs in shelters get adopted
Jan Lee, Ang Tian Tian New Paper 23 Dec 17;

Although regulations and attitudes have shifted to be more welcoming towards stray dog adoption, the rehoming of stray dogs is still a challenge for many animal welfare groups (AWGs) in Singapore.

President of Action for Singapore Dogs Ricky Yeo said: "Only about 30 per cent to 40 per cent of the dogs that come through us every year get adopted."

As for the Animal Lovers League, co-founder Cathy Strong said only 20 per cent of dogs in their shelter get new homes.

Yet, rehoming is still the top option for many shelters in Singapore. And the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority of Singapore (AVA) is in line with that strategy.

The AVA announced on Thursday that it will be rolling out a five-year trap-neuter-release-manage programme next year to manage the stray dog population in Singapore, the first scheme of its sort for stray dogs on a national level.

The programme aims to sterilise 70 per cent of the stray dog population and rehome as many of them as possible.

Yet, rehoming may be a long shot for many of these dogs.

Dogs that are big, older, have some form of disability or illnesses are notoriously difficult to rehome, welfare groups said.

Factors such as appearancematter as well.

Mr Yeo said: "Black dogs tend to be discriminated against... And dogs with one or two white paws are difficult to rehome as well as they remind people of the Chinese funeral custom of wearing white socks."

PROJECT ADORE

Despite an adoption programme called Project Adore that allows those living in HDB flats to adopt strays up to 15kg and 50cm in height, dogs larger than that still cannot be accepted.

Dogs that are not successfully rehomed will be released to suitable locations, said AVA.

AWGs said these dogs will most likely be released back to the areas where they were found.

"They might not survive in a new environment where there are already existing packs of dogs or a lack of feeders."

However, alternative arrangements would need to be made for dogs found at areas that are deemed unsafe or slated for redevelopment, welfare groups said. These include retraining, fostering or putting them in shelters.

The temperament of the dogs also matters when it comes to deciding whether to release them back into their old area.

AVA told TNP yesterday: "For aggressive dogs, checks will be done with AWGs to determine if they are prepared to keep the dogs in their shelters or determine if they are suitable for retraining."

As animal shelters in Singapore have been full for years due to space constraints, AWGs still hope that more people will adopt stray dogs.

Mr Yeo explained: "Not everyone will welcome a stray into their homes so that cultural bias is the hardest to combat.

"But we have seen improvements in younger people, those in their 20s or 30s, who are more open to adoptions."

A new study has warned of the threat that oil palm production poses to tropical forests.

A new study led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) has warned of the threat that oil palm production poses to tropical forests.

Over two decades, the international team of scientists found that oil palm production in Malaysia has an impact beyond the direct loss of habitat. It also provides a rich source of food for nearby wildlife such as wild boars, which then multiply in big numbers and damage forest trees and prevent them from regenerating.

Published in Nature Communications today, the research paper reports that the wild boar population grew a hundred-fold in forests that were adjacent to oil palm plantations, even when the forest and plantations were over a kilometre apart.

The wild boars reduced the number of small trees and saplings by more than half, compared with experimentally fenced-in areas of the forest that did not have wild boars. This reduction is primarily driven by wild boar mothers harvesting small trees to build nests for their young.
Dr Matthew Luskin, a research fellow at NTU Singapore's Asian School of the Environment, conducted this study in partnership with the Center for Tropical Forest Science -- Forest Global Earth Observatory (CTFS-ForestGEO) at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and researchers at the University of California, Berkeley.

"For 10 years, we saw that plants and small trees on the forest floor were disappearing but we didn't understand why," said Dr Luskin. "Once we started looking outside the forest to the surrounding oil palms, the story became clear.

"When oil palms start fruiting, wild boars quickly aggregate to feed in the plantations. The abundant food allows them to reproduce, causing a massive surge in their population in the nearby forest. The biggest subsequent effect this leads to is when pregnant wild boars build nests, as this clears vegetation from the forest floor."

Dr Stuart Davies, Director of CTFS-ForestGEO programme that facilitated the study, said, "This important new study uses intensive long-term field research to illustrate that the effect of agriculture is not necessarily restricted to the land under production.

"Further experiments and observations are critical for understanding interactions between production and protection lands, thereby improving the management of the world's hyper diverse ecosystems."

The researchers said that with many oil palm plantations found near Southeast Asia's remaining forested lowlands, it could have a similar knock-on effect on the ecology in those areas, but its long term impact warrants more in-depth studies.

"I've personally seen population eruptions of pigs and macaque monkeys in forests near oil palms across Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Sumatra. This may become a huge conservation issue for the entire region," said Dr Luskin.

The researchers urged oil palm growers as well as the countries and regulatory bodies that govern them to consider ways to limit negative impacts.

One solution suggested by Dr Luskin could be for forest reserves to be surrounded by larger 'buffer' areas to limit wildlife access to oil palm fruits.

With many tropical forests lying within a kilometre of a non-forested area, such as a plantation, the scientists said well-protected forest reserves may be insufficient to conserve tropical biodiversity in the face of ongoing agricultural expansion.

Efforts to control the wild boar or feral pig population is also culturally sensitive in some parts of Southeast Asia where pigs are regarded as unclean and consumption of pork is taboo.

The study focused on native wild boars (Sus scrofa), which are well-known to farmers as crop-raiding pests. The wild boar population was estimated to grow 100-times larger than natural levels, resulting in dramatic impacts on an intact forest.

Other animals such as macaque monkeys are also known to forage on oil palm and become common in forests found near plantations. These animals eat birds' eggs and a variety of other species and also alter the food webs in forests found near oil palm plantations.

Associate Professor Fidel Costa, Acting Chair of NTU's Asian School of the Environment, said this paper is yet another project that showcases the strengths of the partnership NTU Singapore has with the Smithsonian Institution in the United States.

"Together with the Smithsonian, NTU Singapore hopes to groom the next generation of scientific research expertise, which will help Asian countries effectively conserve their environment and to embark on more sustainable business practices," Prof Costa explained.

"Through impactful studies on the effect of agricultural expansion and wildlife population, we hope to provide insights for countries and policymakers who seek to better protect our environment for future generations."

KUALA LUMPUR: The government is confident of achieving its target of five million hectares of permanent forest reserve land by 2020, said Peninsular Malaysia Forestry Department director-general Datuk Nor Akhirrudin Mahmud.

At present, the land size for permanent forest reserve land was 4.9 million hectares, he said.

Nor Akhirrudin said various efforts had and were being made to ensure the remaining target of one million hectares would be achieved.

“This is a good figure for the peninsula and it is the target of our department. Among the trees we plant are the meranti, damar, medang and kelat,” he said in a press conference held after the department’s family day here today.
Commenting further, Nor Akhirrudin said the target could be achieved through mapping projects of the forest areas using satellites and drones to identify the areas with potential as permanent forest reserves.

“We will submit a proposal paper to the Economic Planning Unit in the Prime Minister’s Department in March and we hope this project can be implemented at the latest by next year,” he said.

He said the department was in the midst of implementing land restorative programmes in three areas which were affected by erosion, namely Cameron Highlands, Lembangan Sungai Kelantan and Janda Baik.

Under the 11th Malaysia Plan for the five-year period from 2016 to 2020, the government has allocated RM100 million for rehabilitation and restoration of forest areas in the peninsula.

Nor Akhirrudin said the department was also working with other parties including government agencies, the private sector and non-governmental organisations in its efforts to restore forest area. - Bernama

KEPONG: The Forestry Department wants to use drones and satellite images to map new areas which can be identified as potential additions to the country’s permanent forest reserve in 2018, said the department’s (Peninsular Malaysia) director-general Datuk Nor Akhirrudin Mahmud.

“Ground personnel will also be deployed for the mapping prog­ramme to identify forest areas outside of permanent forest reserve areas,” he said after attending a get-together with the department staff at the Forestry Training Centre here yesterday.

He said the department would submit the proposal for the mapping programme to the Government by March.

“The mapping and replanting of trees are being carried out towards increasing the permanent forest reserve area,” Nor Akhirrudin said.

Malaysia currently has 4.9 million hectares of permanent forest reserves, which the department aims to increase to five million hectares by 2020.

Lhokseumawe, Aceh (ANTARA News) - A group of environmentalists has disseminated information on preventing the human-elephant conflict to the people in Cot Girek subdistrict, North Aceh district, an official said here on Thursday.

The group, comprised of the environmental group World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Indonesia, the Krueng Peusangan riverbank forum (FDKP), the Ureung Inoeng Aceh Syura Agency (BSUIA), and the Lhokseumawe Natural Resources Conservation Agency (BKSDA), shared some important knowledge on the wild elephant`s characters.

The talk also discussed several strategies to handle wild elephants and drive the animals off to the forests.
Syam Suardi, the education and awareness specialist of WWF Indonesia, noted on Thursday that villagers who lived nearby the wild elephant habitats, such as forests, need to understand some critical points while driving off the animals from the plantations or residential areas.

The villagers should avoid coming in contact with the wild male elephants that are in their mating seasons, commonly known as Must period, Suardi explained.

The period is noted by several characteristics, such as the secretions from the elephants` eyes and ears.

During the mating season, the elephant would be more aggressive, because the testosterone level in the animal would rise to 60 times higher than the normal condition.

"The (aggressive) behavior would last for three to five months for one to four weeks. We hope the villagers would avoid any contact with the animals," he noted.

Suardi stressed that the villagers also need to stop hurting the animals, because the injured elephants would be more aggressive to the people.

When the elephants have a panic attack, they would arbitrarily run, which would be harmful to the villagers. Hence, people should remain calm and stay alert, he remarked.

During the workshop, the group not only disseminated information but also hosted a simulation on how to drive off the wild animals.

For years, villagers at Cok Gireng have lived alongside the wild elephants. As the number of settlement and population increased, conflict between human and elephants has been regularly occurring.

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Deputy Government of Jakarta, Sandiaga Uno, has said that the Jakarta administration is applying a zero waste management system in preparations for the Asian Games 2018.

Uno presented several modern cleaning equipment, decorated with the logo of Asian Games, to the environmental affairs office in East Jakarta, here, on Thursday.

"Today, we hand over several assets officially. This is part of our preparations for the implementation of the Asian Games and our preparation for zero waste management," he stated.
The Jakarta provincial administration will provide the equipment to five municipalities, namely Central, South, North, West and East Jakarta, and Seribu Island District.

Jakarta produces some seven thousand tons of wastes daily. Waste management is a huge responsibility of the capital city, according to him.

He urged the Jakartans to change their mindset regarding waste disposal and treatment and move toward zero waste management.

Jakarta and the South Sumatran provincial capital of Palembang will co-host the 18th Asian Games from Aug 18 to Sept 2, 2018.

The largest sport event in Asia will be participated in by thousands of athletes from 45 Asian nations.

The ministry in October issued a reprimand letter that invalidated RAPP's current 10-year plan due to the company's unwillingness to comply with new government regulations on peatland protection.(Reuters Photo/Y.T. Haryono)
Dames Alexander Sinaga Jakarta Globe 21 Dec 17;

Jakarta. The Jakarta State Administrative Court, or PTUN Jakarta, on Thursday (21/12) rejected a plea submitted by Riau Andalan Pulp and Paper, or RAPP, requesting the court revoke a reprimand letter issued by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry in October, which invalidated the company’s current 10-year business plan.

RAPP previously had a spat with the ministry after it rejected the company's business plan for a failure to comply with the government's new peatland protection framework, as detailed in Ministerial Decree No. 17 of 2017. That decree provides technical detail related to the implementation of Government Regulation No. 57 of 2016.
RAPP filed the plea to PTUN Jakarta on Nov. 16. It argued that one of the articles in Government Regulation No. 71 of 2014 states that business permits issued before the regulation became effective will remain valid until the company's license expires.

"The applicant's plea cannot be accepted as it does not meet the formal requirements," presiding judge Oenoen Pratiwi said in court on Thursday.

Oenoen said that according to one of the articles in a 1986 Law on the State Administrative Court, the company should have taken legal action by filing a lawsuit instead of submitting a plea.

Hamdan Zoelva, RAPP's legal representative, said the company will propose a judicial review to the Supreme Court after the court's decision.

"We respect that decision, but we will file a judicial review on that decision," Hamdan,who is a former MK chief justice, told reporters after the court hearing.

Hamdan added that he will also file a lawsuit against the ministry’s reprimand letter to the State Administrative Court immediately.

Government Statement

Bambang Hendroyono, the secretary general at the ministry, said that RAPP must obey the new government regulations by revising its business plan.

"There is no reason anymore to disobey government rules to revise the business plan. We have advised the company since May, but it [RAPP] did not follow the ministry’s directions," Bambang said after the hearing.

Bambang added that the ministry is still waiting for the completion of the company’s business plan revision as soon as possible.

"We have been waiting [for RAPP to comply with the request] within 14 working days since our last letter on Dec. 8."

RAPP Statement

RAPP — the operational unit of global pulp and paper industry leader Asia Pacific Resources International — said in a statement that the company also respects the court's decision.

The pulp and paper company also said it will revise its business plan to comply with the new regulations.

"With the revised business plan, the impact on our business activities will be considerable. However, we will continue to comply with directives from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry," RAPP said in a statement received by the Jakarta Globe on Thursday.

The company said it will invest significantly in the conservation and restoration of peatlands in support of government efforts in managing sustainable development and reducing the impacts of climate change.

"Our current focus is on disseminating the results of the court’s ruling on operational management and ensuring the well-being of employees and the company’s contractors which are affected by today's court ruling," RAPP said in the statement.

Pulpwood firm loses appeal on work plan
S'pore-based firm April says it will work with Indonesian ministry on peatland protection
Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja Straits Times 22 Dec 17;

An Indonesian court yesterday rejected a petition by a major Indonesian pulp and paper company that challenged a government decision to void the firm's 10-year business plan.

Riau Andalan Pulp and Paper (Rapp), the operational unit of Singapore-based pulpwood firm Asia Pacific Resources International Limited (April), said that it would adjust the plan, which governs its daily operations, to meet Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) directives.

The dispute between Rapp and the MOEF involved differences over government efforts to speed up plantation companies moving off flammable peatlands. Rapp has large areas of peatlands within its Sumatra concessions.

The ministry had accused the company of failing to comply with new peatland protection laws, which aim to prevent annual haze and encourage plantation firms to move their operations to non-peatlands through land swop deals.

April said it protects large areas of peatlands, which are a major source of haze in the dry season, in its concessions. But it called on the ministry to agree to a more measured move off peatlands to avoid major business disruption and job losses.

The MOEF disagreed and wanted Rapp to revise its 10-year work plan, which all plantation firms must submit for ministerial approval. Failure to comply means a company must halt operations.

Rapp challenged the decision earlier this year to cancel the firm's business plan and sought the East Jakarta Administrative Court's help to mediate in the dispute.

Yesterday, a three-member panel of judges rejected its petition on procedural, not legal, grounds.

The firm responded: "Rapp intends to adjust the company's general working plan, as per directives from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry."

"The newly revised (plan) will significantly impact our business activities. Nevertheless, we will comply with the directives from the MOEF."

In the meantime, the firm's pulp mill can keep operating but no planting and harvesting on the concession areas covered by the work plan can be carried out, which will affect thousands of jobs.

Rapp also challenged the ministry's reliance on a law this year that decreed plantation firms must quickly switch to non-peatlands via land swops. The Supreme Court in October struck down the regulation, saying it was ambiguous and could cause legal uncertainty.

In its statement, the firm said: "We will continue to work to meet our commitment to conserve one hectare for every hectare planted (one-for-one goal), which currently stands at 83 per cent - or 419,000ha - of forest under conservation and restoration."

Its concessions under the work plan cover a large area of pulpwood trees in Riau province, directly across the Malacca Strait from Singapore. More than half the total concession area is peatland.

Dr Bambang Hendroyono, Secretary-General of MOEF, told The Straits Times that the ministry gave Rapp 14 working days from Dec 8 to revise its work plan.

"We have set a target to have all work plans... completed within this year. That is the ideal deadline," he said. "We are facing dry weather ahead and in 2018, we have Asian Games. We don't want to see anymore fire (and) haze then."

He said plantation firms, overall, did well in the recent prevention measures, adding: "Now only about 40 per cent of the total 85 plantation companies have completed their work plans.

"If the April group, which consists of more than 30 companies, completes its work plan, we will have 80 per cent of the 85 companies having completed their work plan."

JAKARTA, NNC - According to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the rainy and dry seasons of 2017 until 2018 are normal. But it predicted there will be more than 2,000 occurrences in the territory of Indonesia in 2018.

Head of Information Data Center and Public Relation of National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) Sutopo Purwo Nugroho predicted hydrometeorological hazards, i.e., flood, landslide and tornado will still dominate disasters throughout 2018. It is estimated that hydrometeorological hazards will occur more than 90 percent.

"Based on the magnitude of the floods and landslides, it depends on the intensity of the rainfall, current environmental condition which has been ecological emergency, where environmental degradation, forest degradation, critical watersheds, high vulnerability and others cause disasters like floods and landslides expand," said Sutopo during a press conference at the BNPB Office, Thursday (12/21/2017).
Sutopo said hydrometeorological disasters lasted during the rainy season, i.e., from November to April 2018 with the peak of the disasters in January to February 2018.

He also expected that the landslides will remain catastrophic disaster while the floods will still occur in areas prone to flooding in accordance with flood-prone maps.

Sutopo also added that in 2018 the agency predicted the earthquake will also continue to occur. On average each month there are about 500 earthquake events in Indonesia, but earthquakes cannot be predicted accurately for its magnitude, time and location.

"But the earthquake is predicted to occur in the subduction pathway at sea and the fault line on land," he said. "We need to watch out for the earthquakes in eastern Indonesia where the seismicity and geology are more complicated and the vulnerability is higher," added Sutopo.

Mount Agung and Mount Sinabung activities are also estimated to be high so that there is still potential for eruption. Forest and land fires will also occur, but according to Sutopo, this fire case can be addressed properly.

A network of Thai people living along the Mekong River are advocating an international law to protect the environment and human rights regarding international investments in the river basin, as the major lifeline is threatened by multiple projects.

The Thai People in Eight Mekong Provinces Network working group met in Chiang Rai’s Chiang Khong district yesterday, with participants concluding that the Mekong was under imminent threat of irreversible damage by proposed hydropower dam projects on the main tributary in China, Laos and Cambodia.

The discussion also highlighted that there were still no effective legal tools to regulate projects. China’s potential cancellation of the Mekong River navigation channel improvement project was also a major discussion topic.

The working group considered whether the move was because the Chinese government had recently passed a new law forcing the Chinese investment board to respect the laws of destination countries and ensure that investments did not affect the environment or violate human rights.
On Tuesday, Thailand’s Foreign Affairs Minister Don Pramudwinai said China would change the scope of the project or cancel it in order to relieve the concerns of Thai people over the adverse impacts to the environment and people’s livelihoods.

Community Resources Centre coordinator Sor Rattanamanee Polkla said China’s adoption of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights was good news, resulting in a more positive trend of development on the river.

The network members also concluded that Chinese project owners in the region had become more active working with local people about their projects.

However, Sor Rattanamanee emphasised the need for an international law to safeguard the environment and human rights in the Mekong River region, given the current lack of oversight and existing projects generating problems for the environment and riverside residents.

“Even though Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam signed the Mekong Agreement 1995, there has been no real enforcement of the regulations in the agreement,” she said.

“Moreover, we have found that there have been many attempts to wrongly interpret projects’ scope to avoid the enforcement of the regulations in the Mekong Agreement, such as in the Khong-Loei-Chi-Mun water diversion project and the Mekong River navigation channel improvement project.”

She said everyone had a duty to demand and campaign for legal tools for environmental and human rights protections.

Meanwhile, Somkiat Keuanchiangsa, coordinator of the Network for Preservation of Natural Resources and Lanna Culture, also said strategic environmental assessments should be conducted before environmental impact to assess the value of projects in all aspects weighed against the cost to the river ecosystem.

Somkiat also asked the governments of Mekong countries to review the damage to the river over the past two decades, as people who depend on the region’s natural resources were suffering due to the degrading ecosystem resulting from development projects.

WATAMU, Kenya (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Kai, a three-year-old green sea turtle, was released back into the turquoise waters of the Indian Ocean off Kenya’s coast this month.

She had been hospitalized after her guts were blocked with white plastic bags she swallowed, mistaking them for jellyfish, and tiny plastic pieces entangled in the sea grass she eats.

In a bid to clean up Kai’s environment, the villagers of Watamu, who depend on fishing and tourism, joined hands in 2016 with an entrepreneur and a local ocean conservation charity to recycle plastic waste from two marine national parks in eastern Kenya.
In Malindi town, 20 km (12.5 miles) from Watamu and 115 km north of Mombasa city, Sam Ngumba Ngaruiya, 59, is turning plastic waste collected from beaches into green construction materials.

They include six-foot fencing poles used by schools and farms, road signs, paving, roof tiles and recycled plastic containers slowly gaining traction among local people.

Villagers in Watamu, including school children, gather plastic waste from the sea, beaches and households every Friday, a holy day for the Muslim-majority community here.

The poorer among them sell the plastic to Ngaruiya’s company, Regeneration Environmental Services Ltd.

At Watamu’s Blue Lagoon Bay, Gilbert Risiki Ngonyo told the Thomson Reuters Foundation he supplements his irregular earnings from small carpentry and painting jobs with about 3,000 Kenyan shillings ($29.15) a month from selling the salvaged plastic.

The recycling factory pays 10 shillings for 1 kg of plastic - the equivalent of roughly two 2-litre empty plastic water bottles.

In four hours, collectors can gather 50 kg of plastic, earning 500 shillings ($4.86) - “enough to eat and feed their family for a day”, said Ngaruiya.

DURABLE PRODUCTS

Locals, many of them women – who work faster than men, according to Ngaruiya - segregate the plastic materials into eight types.

After being machine-chopped into 1-cm flakes, the plastic is washed and dried, before additives like hardeners and sun-blockers are mixed in.

The plastic is heated to melting point to avoid noxious fumes. Then locally sourced river sand, gravel, fiber-glass, sawdust or coconut fibers are added to the hot liquid, and it is poured into moulds to set.

“Basically we are substituting plastic for cement,” said Ngaruiya, a U.S.-trained bio-engineer. Melted plastic absorbs sand, squeezing it as it cools, to become compact and strong, he explained.

“These recycled plastic products can last 200 years,” he said. The negative aspect of plastic waste – that it does not deteriorate or decompose for hundreds of years - becomes a positive when converted into construction materials, he added.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the tourism industry suffered from 2011 to 2015, with coastal marine parks hit the hardest. Visitors to Kilifi County’s Watamu marine park fell by 35 percent, while that in Malindi saw about 40 percent fewer.

The government attributes the drop to security concerns caused by attacks linked to Islamist groups.

DEAD TURTLES

Ben Kithiy, a 24-year-old currency changer in Watamu who makes a living from European and American tourists visiting the fine white sand beaches to snorkel, water ski and windsurf, can think of another reason.

“Floating plastic pieces sticking to the body when you are swimming in these waters makes for a very unpleasant experience,” he said. Even local children who come to clean up the beaches don’t want to swim for that reason, he added.

Every year, between 4.8 million and 12.7 million tonnes of plastic are dumped in the world’s oceans, depending on river flooding, costing some $8 billion, according to a 2017 report from UN Environment.

Kithiy found five foul-smelling dead turtles on his local beach in Blue Lagoon Bay last year. Several others were floating inertly in shallow waters after eating plastic, and would likely have starved to death, he said.

Casper Van De Geer, who manages the Watamu Turtle Watch conservation program, said that of the 30 to 80 turtles brought in for rehabilitation each year, 15 percent are harmed by plastic.

“Close to half of them die of infection as pieces of hard plastic lodge into nooks and crannies inside the intestine, lacerating it and causing infection,” he said.

“PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY”

Since starting production in 2016, Ngaruiya’s factory has recycled 40 to 50 tonnes of plastic waste gathered from Watamu and Malindi. It has a daily capacity of 2 tonnes, but regular orders for recycled materials are yet to come in, despite products being competitively priced, the entrepreneur said.

Ngaruiya has poured in $500,000 of his money - mainly for research. While Kenya banned single-use plastic bags earlier this year, conscious of their devastating impact on wildlife, Ngaruiya’s business has received no financial incentives or subsidies from the government, banks or other funding agencies.

Nicky Parazzi, founder of the non-profit Local Ocean Trust, which runs Watamu Turtle Watch, said the tourism industry, including beach hotels, should contribute more to recycling initiatives.

Ngaruiya’s business has provided the missing link in building a circular economy for plastic, she added.

Ngaruiya said greater awareness is needed at the consumer level. “It’s time to take personal responsibility with one’s own waste, to separate the organics from the plastics, and ensure they reach the recycling centers,” he said.

More such centers are needed along the African coast, with smaller factories alongside, he added.

At the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi this month, 193 member countries resolved to prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds by 2030.

About 40 countries have signed up to a “Clean Seas” campaign launched by UN Environment in January 2017 to introduce government policies for industry to minimize plastic packaging and redesign products, while urging consumers to change their throwaway habits before irreversible damage is done to oceans.

Researchers plotted temperature rises against the number of asylum applications and are predicting that as the southern hemisphere heats up the number of people migrating to the EU each year will triple
Fiona Harvey The Guardian 21 Dec 17;

Climate change will drive a huge increase in the number of migrants seeking asylum in Europe if current trends continue, according to a new study.

The number of migrants attempting to settle in Europe each year will triple by the end of the century based on current climate trends alone, independent of other political and economic factors, according to the research. Even if efforts to curb global warming are successful, the number of applications for asylum could rise by a quarter, the authors predict.

Wolfram Schlenker, professor at the school of international and public affairs at Columbia University in New York, and lead author of the study, said: “Europe will see increasing numbers of desperate people fleeing their home countries.”

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, at the London School of Economics and Political Science, who was not involved with the report, told the Guardian the results should be taken seriously by policymakers, though current forecasting models frequently fail to take such factors into account.

He said: “This study shows how Europe will be impacted by one of the most serious impacts of climate change. Hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of people will be exposed to coastal sea level rise and shifts in extreme weather that will cause mass migrations away from the most vulnerable locations. We know from human history that such migrations often lead to conflict and war, with devastating consequences. The huge potential costs of migration-related conflict are usually omitted from economic models of climate change impacts in the future.”
Climate change is predicted to result in more droughts, floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather, as well as more intense storms and rising sea levels. These effects are likely to render agriculture more difficult, if not impossible, across swathes of the globe, including sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia.

These effects will also be felt in Europe, but its lower base temperatures, relative prosperity and advanced infrastructure mean the damage could be contained, and make it an attractive destination for migrants.

Migration, or attempted migration, to Europe has increased markedly in the last decade, with leading causes including the war in Syria, turmoil in north Africa and the middle East, and a burgeoning young population with few economic prospects in many regions of Africa and the middle East.

The new study, published on Thursday in the journal Science, was initiated and largely funded by the EU’s Joint Research Centre, with contribution from the US Department of Energy, and led by scientists at Columbia University in New York.

The authors of the study examined asylum applications in the EU from 103 countries between 2000 and 2014, during which time applications averaged more than 350,000 a year. They compared the applications with information on environmental factors, such as temperature and weather, and adjusted the data for factors such as conflict and political turmoil.

In doing so, they spotted a trend correlating weather and changes in the number of asylum applications. For instance, countries with average temperatures around 20C – the optimum for growing many crops – show a higher number of applications, while there are fewer asylum seekers from areas with cooler temperatures.

The data showed that the more temperatures in a country’s key agricultural regions rose above 20C in the growing season, the more people left their homes for another country. They recorded increases in the number of migrants from hot places such as Iraq and Pakistan when temperatures rose. However, immigration from colder countries fell when temperatures rose towards 20C.

The scientists posit that as the globe warms, the number of people seeking asylum in Europe will correspondingly rise. Warming of 2.6C to 4.8C, which climate experts say is likely unless stronger action is taken to bring down greenhouse gas emissions, would result in as many as 660,000 additional asylum seekers coming to Europe each year by 2100, according to the model.

Linking migration to climate change is controversial. Although many scientists, and many studies, are clear that rising temperatures and extreme weather are likely to increase migration, it is difficult to separate this factor from the myriad other factors that drive people to flee their homes. A drought in Syria from 2006 to 2010 was posited, in a 2015 study, as a factor behind that country’s civil war, which broke out in 2011 and still rages.

Sheep graze in fields in Hasaka, some 650 kms northeast of Damascus.
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Sheep graze in fields in Hasaka, some 650 kms northeast of Damascus. Photograph: -/AFP/Getty Images
Immigration, especially in the wake of the financial crisis and recessions which crippled European economies a decade ago and whose effects are only now beginning to subside, has become one of the hottest political issues in Europe. It was cited as one of the biggest factors in the UK’s referendum on EU membership, and has played a major role in recent elections in Germany and France.

Schlenker said a rise in migration owing to climate change could exacerbate political tensions further. “Europe is already conflicted about how many refugees to admit. Though poorer countries in hotter regions are most vulnerable to climate change, our findings highlight the extent to which countries are interlinked.”

Solomon Hsiang, professor at Berkeley, University of California, and author of a previous study linking conflict and climate change, who was not involved with the current research, said the world must prepare. “We will need to build new institutions and systems to manage this steady flow of asylum-seekers. As we have seen from recent experience in Europe, there are tremendous costs, both for refugees and their hosts, when we are caught flat-footed.”