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Stanley Cup Game 7 Odds Preview

When it comes to Game 7s in Stanley Cup Finals series, the home team has been a safe bet over the years.

So has betting under the total.

In 15 previous Game 7 Cup clinchers, the road team has won only three times (although it happened recently in 2009 when the Penguins won in Detroit). The fact Boston has lost five straight on the road and the Canucks have won six straight at home also factor into the -150 favorite status for Vancouver at shops like Bovada.

In those same 15 games, more than five goals were scored in only one game (way back in 1950 when Pete Babando scored in 2OT for the Red Wings).

Boston pushed the series to the brink with a 5-2 win as a -145 favorite at home in Game 6. The Bruins came out flying in the win and chased Roberto Luongo by scoring three goals in the first eight minutes of the first period.

Brad Marchand got the Bruins on the board, snapping one over Luongo's shoulder, and Milan Lucic and Andrew Ference followed with goals three minutes later to give Boston an early 3-0 lead.

Ever after Luongo was benched in favor of backup Cory Schneider Boston kept coming and set a final record with four goals in 4:14 after Michael Ryder made it 4-0. Tim Thomas stymied the Canucks the rest of the way, stopping 36 of 38 shots, and may have locked up the Conn Smythe Trophy in the process no matter if Boston wins or loses Game 7.

Thomas' performance and the media's inclination that he'll take home the MVP win or lose has caused most books including Bovada to pull their Conn Smythe Trophy futures. Bodog's Richard Gardner explains.

“Even though we would like to reopen the Odds to Win the Conn Smythe Trophy it is one of those situations where people who vote on it in the media have already hinted that Tim Thomas will win even if the Bruins lose and when situations like this occur it becomes very hard to monitor and would rather not risk it. It is sort of the same when we offer NFL or NBA draft odds and teams come out and say who they will take we have to shut down our lines.”

The only thing close to good news for Vancouver in the Game 6 loss was that Henrik Sedin finally registered his first point of the series. Sedin scored in the loss, snapping a five-game pointless drought. More bad news for Vancouver included an injury to Mason Raymond in the first period that kept him out the entire game and will also force him to miss Game 7.

Raymond suffered a fractured vertebrae which could sideline him into the start of next season.

Even after their Game 6 defeat and the loss of Raymond the Canucks are a -150 favorite for Game 7 at Bovada. The reason of course is because Vancouver is playing at home. The home team has won every game at home in the series and Vancouver has won six straight at home overall.

If you want to see what a difference home and away makes for Vancouver just look at Luongo's playoff numbers. At home during the postseason Luongo sports a solid 10-3 record with a 1.71 goals-against average and a .943 save percentage. On the road he's only 5-6 with a poor 3.76 GAA and an .878 save percentage.

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