Cyprus should seek maritime arbitration to nullify Turkish EEZ claims

‘At the moment there’s the impression that the acreage is disputed’, expert says

CYPRUS should at least look into the possibility of seeking international arbitration regarding the boundaries of its and Turkey’s respective maritime rights around the island, before the situation potentially escalates, an energy analyst has told the Sunday Mail.

“The sooner the better,” said Charles Ellinas.

Things could get hairy next year, when ENI and Total aim to commence exploratory drilling for gas in their block 6 concession, to the southwest of the island, which Turkey claims partially falls within its own continental shelf.

Meantime the Turkish vessel Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa is currently conducting – ostensibly at least – seismic surveys in that very same offshore block.

With the dispute not going away – underscored by Turkey’s encroachments into Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone this month – Nicosia must act, and fast.

Avenues which Cyprus could explore to resolve the matter include the International Court of Justice and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.

It should be noted that Turkey is not a party to the Law of the Sea Convention.

Ellinas thinks that if there is any risk from an arbitration finding, that risk will be to Greece (islands in the Aegean), rather than to Cyprus.

But whatever it does, Nicosia should get cracking now.

“Unfortunately, in Cyprus we always tend to leave things until the last moment, when it’s too late. The present administration is no exception.”

Should Cyprus get a positive outcome – a decision upholding the EEZ declared by the Republic, though without having consulted Turkey it has to be said – that would be a major plus.

“Even if Turkey does not respect the finding, the decision will be there, creating a fait accompli, and taking away the moral high ground from under Ankara’s feet.”

Ellinas points out, for example, how international media have been walking on eggshells in their coverage of the Turkish incursions into the EEZ.

“At the moment there’s the impression that the acreage is disputed. But a decision by an international body would telegraph to the world that this is not the case.”

But that is not all. From statements by senior Turkish officials, it can be deduced that Ankara is actively seeking to acquire a drilling platform.

Its claims on Cyprus’s EEZ aside, Turkey has long been making noises about a drilling platform, which it needs at any rate for other hydrocarbons explorations, for example in the Black Sea.

But one can be almost certain that it would deploy such a rig to Cypriot waters.

“Which is why, again, we must act quickly before we’re boxed in.”

And according to the analyst, such an acquisition is well within Turkey’s reach. Because several drill ships are currently idle, prices have dropped, going for anywhere from $200 million to $400 million.

Over the past weeks, the government has said that it is using diplomatic and legal means to counter Turkey’s actions in the EEZ. No official has elaborated on what these steps are.

Turkish claims in Cyprus’ EEZ

Turkey claims that part of Cyprus’ block 1, as well as the northern sections of blocks 4, 5, 6 and 7 fall within its continental shelf.

Turkish Cypriot claims in EEZ

Ankara also supports the breakaway regime’s claims on blocks 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 12 and 13, including within few kilometres from the Aphrodite gas field.

Ankara’s position is that the EEZ of an island should be specified in terms of its coastline when compared to Turkey’s coastline. Since Cyprus’ coastline, in particular the Republic’s, is dwarfed by Turkey’s shoreline, on the face of it Turkey’s claim appears logical.

But in Ellinas’ opinion, Turkey’s position – that islands cannot have an EEZ – is untenable when it comes to Cyprus, because it is taken out of context.

“Cyprus is not merely an island, and an inhabited one at that, it is country that is recognized by the UN and is a member of the European Union. That is why Turkey’s aforesaid argument – which it cites in relation to the Greek islands in the Aegean – cannot apply in Cyprus’ case.”

As long as the issue remains unresolved, Turkey can be expected to continue its scaremongering and harassment tactics in the eastern Mediterranean.

“To be pragmatic, you have to put yourself in Turkey’s shoes. They can’t just drop these claims of theirs,” Ellinas offers.

So far, Nicosia’s response has been measured. Officials have stressed the need for a low-key approach, thus diffusing tensions.

Whereas Turkey has not sought permission from Cyprus, the jurisdictional coastal state, to conduct surveys in the island’s EEZ, it has strictly speaking not violated Cyprus’ sovereignty.

Despite the hype – with part of the media to blame – all the Turkish military and naval drills have been taking place in international waters. And Turkish warships have stayed well outside the exclusion/safety zone around the West Capella drillship in block 11.

The ultra deepwater drillship West Capella

French energy giants Total, who leased the West Capella, have repeatedly indicated they will not interrupt operations unless the crew is physically endangered.

Total have said the target in block 11 could prove to be a reservoir roughly the size of the Aphrodite gas field – between 4 and 5 trillion cubic feet.

It is also important to recognize, says Ellinas, that any revenues to Cyprus will not come before 2018.

If the target does contain a reservoir, it would take two to three years for Total to finalize development plans, and another three to four years thereafter for construction of the infrastructure around the well.

Beyond that, Cyprus must wait until the companies’ investment is paid for before revenues stream into state coffers.

The anticipated income for Cyprus? A ballpark figure of €500m a year over a 15 to 20-year period.

Since the Cypriot EEZ is basically part of the EU EZZ, I don’t think Cyprus could raise or clarify issues by itself because the whole EU is involved here.

HighTide

There is no such a thing as an EU EEZ. It’s a national concern.

Athenian Owl

If it is a national concern then there is no concern at all because according to the European law the entire island (ie. nation) belongs to the EU; so we are talking about European territory. So, even though the tempation is to treat it as a local matter, the mechanics of it show that is much bigger and more complex issue and that Turkey should be having conversations with Brussels if it thinks otherwise. And good luck with European bureaucracy.

HighTide

There is no “European territory” either. The EU is not a state but a union of independent member states that control their own lands.

Athenian Owl

Nobody knows what the EU is exactly and that’s a very real problem of Turkish diplomacy. On one hand Turkey is getting upset at an EU country that does not exist(Cyprus) and on the other hand Turkey deals with an amorphous entity called the EU which could be a number of things but no one know what exactly. Under such conditions Cyprus could thrive and Turkey realizes it.

HighTide

If you don’t know the workings of the EU and the treaties signed by each member state, I recommend to get relevant literature or to visit the EU home page on the internet.
Very informative.

Athenian Owl

I think I do know very well what an informative place the EU is. But I don’t think Turkey does.

HighTide

Informative? How so?

Athenian Owl

Tons of procedures, codes and regulations enough for 10 generations, at least.

HighTide

That’s not informative, but regulatory. None of this happens without the consent of the member states that all have a veto right on treaties.

Athenian Owl

Tell that to Greece and Cyprus how much veto power they have. None. But when the EU decides to fund the studies of future electric cable and east Med pipelines as well as pay for these projects then you can forget about Greece and Cyprus being a thorn on your side. Neither have any serious say on what happens next. And you real problem is a very bureaucratic EU.

HighTide

Both Greece and Cyprus have their own veto power on all EU treaties. If they don’t use them they have to blame themselves. South Cyprus announced her veto for Turkey’s EU application although it is irrelevant since major European countries will not allow it anyway.
The EU finances studies but certainly not the construction of pipe lines.

Athenian Owl

You just ansered your own question. Mickey mouse veto power.

I would say that 50% of the construction costs would be covered by EU funds but it’s too early to demonstrate how.

HighTide

There is no information to support this estimate.
Mickey mouse power it is only when not used. That’s self inflicted.

Athenian Owl

You may want to show them how to use it but the fact remains that this veto power may not be as advertised.

HighTide

Every EU treaty needs the signature of each head of state and in many cases parliament approval. If Greece and Cyprus sign items they do not support they have to blame only themselves. The fact that both countries are in the bag of the EU due to their fiscal shenanigans does not change the rules, just binds their hands due to own misbehavior. No empathy there.

Athenian Owl

I am not asking for empathy; I am just stating facts. The big commercial interests involved with the EU are neither friendly to Turkey nor Greece or Cyprus in this matter.

HighTide

There is no friendliness in any international relations. The world thrives on selfishness.

Athenian Owl

Correct. But sometimes as everyone expects selfishness, a display of friendliness instead can break down barriers and give you considerable strategic advantage. In fact to do the unexpected is the best strategy since if everybody reads you as selflish and you act selfish then you become tactical and not strategic. Right?

HighTide

True, but seldom applied.

Athenian Owl

Seldom the key word.

Vlora

EU?EU is not a country.

Athenian Owl

That’s what they want you to believe because otherwise Germany would have to open its purse, but in reality not so.

Vlora

Unfortunately I know that each and every country in EU has her own sovereignty and poor EU is being used only for loans money.I hope and I wish that Macron will be a strong leader of future and will curtail these loans to Eastern European block at least.

Athenian Owl

Vlora, it’s obvious that Turkey is threatened by a strong EU and privately hopes for fragmentation which may or may not come. Macron after a strong start is losing in the polls because usually politicians of leftist persuation are ineffective in government. They can talk a good game but deliver not.

HighTide

Turkey is not “threatened” by a strong EU, just by its own internal turmoil. Her free trade agreement with the EU is in place since many decades. Everything else are political games that can change overnight.

Athenian Owl

Right, so Turkey has already maximum advantage from the EU on trade and as long as Germany outsells Turkey in bilateral trade Turkey has a “most favorite nations” status. You don’t need to be afraid that this will change anytime soon. But EU regulations and procedures are another beast.

Vlora

Turkey deserves it.It is a powerful country.

Athenian Owl

Turkey is indeed a powerful country within its regional sphere of influence which is the Middle East. But in European terms Turkey is not considered powerful because NATO prevents her from being a threat to Europe.

HighTide

That’s a weird view. Turkey is one of the most important members of NATO and has not intention to militarily threaten Europe. What for? It’s her export life line. The current megalomania is an internal matter.

Vlora

They dream a lot.

Athenian Owl

So, that’s what I am saying. If Turkey depends on Europe for its trade than by definition Turkey does not exert either soft or hard power over Europe. But it does involving matters of Syria, Iran, Egypt and the Saudis. In fact traditionally, Turkey is the only power which knows how to control the Middle East and will probably control it again in the future. That’s where the future lies for Turkey; Europe is nothing but a place of frustration for Turkey and Turkey’s ambitions.

HighTide

You are mistaken. Turkey has no chance to control the Middle East. Arabs don’t like Turks with few exceptions.
All mutual relationship is based on commercial interests only. Islamic leadership will always remain in Arab/ Iranian hands.

Athenian Owl

It’s not a question of liking but rather of ability. Turkey knows how to control the MidEast, not always in the nicest way, but it does. History says so.

HighTide

Turkey never controlled the MidEast, the Ottoman Empire did by force not by conviction. Islamic leadership was enforced not accepted. Nothing has changed today, except that Turkey is not a major player in the Arab world anymore.

Athenian Owl

But it will be again because that’s Turkey’s geographical destiny. The fact that Turkey today is hesitant in undertaking such role it does not mean that eventually some political force in Turkey will not break out of the self-imposed isolation and start doing its job which is peace (by coersion if you wish) in the MidEast.

HighTide

Your word in “Allahs” ear! You give Turkey’s foreign ambitions too much credit. Once the country returns to Atatürk’s ideals, it will be “peace at home, peace abroad” once again, without hegemonial dreams.

Athenian Owl

It does not bother me at all if Turkey has hegemonial ambitions as long as they are not directed towards Greece and Cyprus in which case we have a duty to defend against them. In fact what I am saying to you is let’s try to resurrect an autonomous thriving economic area (such as Asia Minor, Greece and Cyprus was from antiquity) and let’s enjoy each other. We have the antidote to the EU right in our hands. The EU is crazy and it will make you crazy the closer you get to it.

HighTide

Since the EU will be out of reach for Turkey in our life time, the new strategy will rather be based on friendly bilateral deals with neighboring states from Russia to Oman. It’s not possible for Turkey to do it by force. These days are over.

Athenian Owl

I always felt that the Turkish aim was not to join the EU but rather use EU funds in opening chapters so that it could bring its economy up to European standards but with EU money. Not a bad strategy. And Turkey has done so to a great degree despite objections from Cyprus and others in opening up the most lucrative chapters. In some way you would expect the weak whose only defense are accepted norms to behave this way. I also always felt that Turkey in a few years celebrating the 100 years of statehood would eventually turn down the EU having maximum trade advantage and an overhauled economy anyway. In this regard to threaten Turkey with vetos on EU membership was not a very good strategy since you can’t threaten someone with something he does not want to do anyway. It was more of a tactic. So I am not sure what the end will be but if you allow the EU to dominate the tempo then we are all effed.

HighTide

This is correct. However, once the current regime in Turkey has become history, it is wide open what the following strategies will be.

Athenian Owl

I am assuming that the Kemalists would be conservative at first.

HighTide

Traditional Kemalism is dead. The new generation embraces the principles but not the nationalism. There is hope for the future.

Athenian Owl

A toast to the new generation and new thinking then.

HighTide

Look at the voting map of the last rigged referendum. All major cities with educated youngsters plus nearly all coastal areas all the way to Syria voted against the constitution change. Look at the peace march from Ankara to Istanbul with a million well wishers. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

HighTide

Well, Athens took full advantage of them. Seems it was no beast but a pussy cat.

Athenian Owl

There is no Athens anymore. Berlin is the seat of power.

HighTide

Only for bankrupt countries, and then it is Brussels.

Athenian Owl

Bankruptcy is not the issue. Maintaining a free trade zone with a common currency so that Germany has a market to sell its products is a very real issue. And as you can see even if you are bankrupt they still give you money to buy German products which is the ultimate objective of the EU.

HighTide

Check the export success of Germany with its DM, prior to the event of the EU. It will tell you a thing or two.

Athenian Owl

If this is a national issue then we have no issue at all because the legal status of the island(entire nation) is that is part of EU terittory. So perhaps there is a temptation to treat it as a local matter but is far more complex than what it appears. If Turkey wishes to lay claim on anything then Brussels is the right place to start such conversations. And good luck with European bureaucracy.

As far as seismic studies are concerned they are perfectly legal on someone else’s EZZ. So Turkey can send as many seismic ships to conduct as many studies as they wish over Cyprus’s EEZ; the international law of the seas preserves such right. You can also lay cable or pipelines on someone else’s EEZ. The part you can not do is drill and exploit someone else’s EEZ.

So personally I don’t see anything wrong with Turkish actions because they are meaningless and perhaps more suited to a propaganda game. Reality is that only a sovereign nation can drill in its own EEZ and by Cyprus drilling it reaffirms our sovereignty supported by Israel, Egypt and Lebanon among other players.

So everything is cool unless of course one wants to get emotional which is fine but not of any consequence, I guess.

HighTide

On bilateral issues Turkey does not need to go to Brussels but negotiates one on one. In this case, there is nobody to legally deal with, as Turkey does not recognize South Cyprus.

Athenian Owl

And that’s essence of Turkey’s problem. You can not get upset about actions of something that does not exist. So when a country that does not exist (according to Turkey) decides to drill, Turkey can’t get upset about it because something that does not exist can not take actions that exist. And that’s the failure of Turkish diplomacy right there. Meanwhile the country that does not exist, Cyprus, is doing business with Israel, Egypt, Lebanon in delineating their own EEZ and that’s all very legal.

HighTide

You are confused. Not being recognized does not mean not existing. A glaring example is the TRNC that does business with the whole world.

Athenian Owl

It seems to me that is Turkish diplomacy that is confused. When Turkey has a problem with something that Cyprus is doing, Turkey can’t pick up the phone to talk to Cyprus about it. So Turkey speaks to Greece instead and Greece says talk to the ROC which is a member of the EU and the eurozone. So, Turkey got itself into a endless loop argument which prevents her from ever solving problems that concern her.

HighTide

You have just described the procedure that Greece and South Cyprus are adopting when dealing with the TRNC, not recognized by them. A big loop there!

Athenian Owl

I don’t think Greece and Cyprus have a choice when no one recognizes TRNC. What would be the benefit of breaking ranks with the international community?

HighTide

The “international community” is a fata morgana. Each country decides according to its own national interests.
Until now, recognition of the TRNC was held in abeyance since the UN kept the unification hopes alive.
Once they are finally terminated, it’s a different ball game.

Athenian Owl

I think you will have a hell of a time partitioning an EU state. If you do that then Spain will implode with separatist movements as well as a few other places as well. The EU will never allow such thing and the legality of separation would be based on mickey mouse arguments.

HighTide

The partition of Cyprus was in place long before South Cyprus joined the EU under false pretenses. This is not comparable to Spain and other split-up candidates.

Athenian Owl

Good tell this to Merkel and Juncker and see what you get back.

HighTide

They only pay lip service. Don’t count on their support.

Athenian Owl

Certainly I don’t. If you ask me I think Cyprus, Greece and Turkey are acting stupid here. Instead of resorting to an old religious conflict (in its roots) with no real meaning (because both religions are fabricated lies for administrative purposes), they ought to get together and create a win-win. All I am saying to you is good luck with the EU. It will make you mad in the end.

HighTide

I have only pointed out the workings of the EU without endorsing the one or the other, except free trade and free movement. Religions have always been used as means to exert power. This is the real motive, not belief in voodoo.

Athenian Owl

o.k. but here is what we know today. Christianity is a fabricated religion by a Roman emperor Constantine in ruling an empire from its new seat Constantinople(Istanbul). It was adopted circa 300 AD as a means of a codex(rules) in managing the empire. 300 years later or around 600 AD comes another fabricated response of a counter religion called Islam and since then we are fighting about false religious dogma. Where is the logic in this?

HighTide

There is no logic in religions, only in using them to oppress people. This can also been done by other philosophies such as communism, with many recent examples. Communism is now a dying system, and eventually religion will be too. We will not live to see it happen but I am very optimistic for the next 100 years.

Athenian Owl

Agreed. Only I hope to see it a bit sooner.

Vlora

Very intelligent!!!
Now you know why the North can not stay out of EU for a very long time .It is one Island.Either the whole will be in EU or whole will be out in her original geographical location of Asia.

Athenian Owl

That’s a good line Vlora but unfortunately the EU is not a reasonble place. You either obey the German rules or you are in for punishment.

Vlora

Germany has a successful economy because of her economic policies at federal level and they know the concept of value for money. Rather they introduced this concept here in Europe.

If other European countries could/can not come up with solid economic policies for their own countries and spend more than the income despite the fact that they get huge EU loans in the field of infrastructure and health sectors, then fault lies with the countries.Not with Germany.
For example Cyprus has just come out of bail in disaster.Still she has a GMI level which does not suit to the economy of the country .

Athenian Owl

If the EU and Germany are such a paradise then why is the UK leaving? Do you think the UK is inferior to Germany? Because world history says otherwise.

Vlora

Yes,economically,UK can never compete Germany. Brexit is based upon racism.Did not you see How residents of Poland were treated in those days when this campaign was going on.

Athenian Owl

Vlora, in economic terms when you have an economy like Germany’s that has to export 50% of its GDP otherwise it collapses in social chaos then what you really have in your hands is Europe’s weakest link.

And no, I don’t think Brexit was racist. Britain is part of the anglophone world which means the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and even India – in other words a trade area much larger than the EU. And trade with the EU does not stop because of Brexit. The UK will continue to trade with the EU no matter what, tariffs or no tariffs.

HighTide

I have to barge in here. If Great Britain cannot come to terms with the EU, it cannot successfully replace her next door neighbors with far flung economies such as New Zealand et al. The costs of doing business are much higher and the trade palette is very limited. The UK has little the world really needs other than its financial services that may be on the brink as well. It is in UK’s interest to come to a very soft Brexit. The UK is leaving against the choice of half its population that would have risen if all the downfalls would have honestly been circulated.

Athenian Owl

Sure, barge in but don’t sink us please.

But it looks to me that the EU negotiators do not want to give a soft Brexit. So Britain it the end -due mainly to European intransigence – may not have but a hard exit choice. I believe that the EU is not seeking an amicable resolution but instead a punitive case against Britain. So, I don’t think that the UK has a choice here.

HighTide

The EU cannot afford to make it easy on the UK lest a few others would take that as an easy option to leave.

Athenian Owl

That’s what I am saying. So in the end only a hard Brexit will do because Britain has decided in this matter. Even Corbyn is now pro_brexit with conditions.

HighTide

That’s right. But soft Brexit means accepting some tough conditions that the EU would apply. That would be the better choice for the UK. 65 million can no longer play an important role in world trade, having lost an empire.

Athenian Owl

I am not sure how easy would be for the Brexiteers to accept “tough conditions” since most of the Tory party voted to leave for precisely such reason i.e. the silly nature of the EU which overregulates everything without a democratic process. So to answer your question, most politicians signing a soft Brexit+conditions would find it to be the end of their career. And I also think that Britain has no longer a Scottish question problem thanks to the last elections in June.

HighTide

Over regulation is self inflicted by all member states. No laws can go into effect without being passed by the EU parliament. The problem lies in the low participation in electing EU MP’s which means that the majority of voters hurt themselves by not voting. It also means that most EU citizens would be happy with just free trade and free travel. The EEC should have been the end of the journey.

Vlora

Brexit was based upon internal selfish motives.EU does not need to have any softness .
Furthermore UK is depending now upon her ex colonies.It will not work.India is like China. Fast economy but no value for money. Goods are cheap and have a very short span of time so it is a wastage of more money in the long run(BVM).

Canada is not a solid exporter to UK as she has traditionally preferred US always .

Then have you thought the freight charges from Australia and Canada.Even if FOB products are obtained , it will be an expensive deal than a free market of EU.

Mine is a tough comment for you.Please do not hesitate in clarifying the concept of BVM and its applicability in UK case or importance of FOB value and free trade difference. When there will be a topic.Now you are off the theme.

Athenian Owl

The only real case of ever exiting the EU was Greenland (part of Denmark).

In 1982, the largest island in the world voted to leave the Union, but it took until 1985 until negotiations were completed, following more than 100 meetings with EU officials. That talks were so tough for an island with a population of 56,000 doesn’t bode well for a swift divorce if the U.K. does opt for Brexit.

“The negotiations were a surprisingly unpleasant job,” Lars Vesterbirk, Greenland’s former representative to the EU who led the negotiations, told POLITICO. “The EU member states would not take us seriously because they were not willing to accept that you should or could leave.”

“At the time, you could become a member of the EU but you couldn’t leave,” Vesterbirk said.

..and here is the part of how damaging to Turkey the EU can become in its present state:

“British people should remember that the EU was created for the benefit of member states, not for those outside” — Lars Vesterbirk, Greenland’s former representative to the EU

HighTide

Greenland is of course not a suitable comparison to “giant” UK. Her minister has today asked for 5 years grace on Brexit aftermath. Shows how unprepared they are.

Athenian Owl

I am not saying that size-wise Greenland is a case for UK. It’s the frame of mind of the EU officials that matters. And I don’t think these people are prepared to give Britain soft choices.

HighTide

They should not unless they accept erosion.

Vlora

Thanks to High Tide, he responded you well.I will just take up the first sentence of yours.

Germany for herself could arrange a flexible economic system for keeping up a cushion for a reasonable balance in payments .Therefore Germany never gets effected by other factors . Other European countries including UK could not/can not handle the macro economy with this package-hence the result is obvious.

Vlora

Majority is now seeking a psychological refuge in staying happy over a fantasy that ‘legality”and ‘ self -independence’ are interlinked for a successful survival. They have never been heard about Taiwan and never wore the fantastic cotton clothes of Taiwan cotton.

Athenian Owl

Don’t you think that Taiwan and China will eventually merge? It’s just a matter of time.

Vlora

Taiwan had decided on her self independence. She will go for any merger only if her people will approve .

Athenian Owl

And Greece and Cyprus decided their independence but 90% of the governing decisions today are made in Brussels and Berlin. By the way, it’s very hard to keep people with the same language and customs apart pretending to be different.

HighTide

That’s partially right, particularly in Cyprus where two different owners do not share the same language, religion and loyalties. That’s why partition is here to stay.

Athenian Owl

The problem you may find out is that as long as you want to partition an EU country it may not be possible. You may have all the good reasons in the world but the authorities will be against you.

HighTide

The partition is a reality. The EU and others will have to learn living with it. And they will.

Athenian Owl

The TCs may not find partition to their liking.

HighTide

Turkish Cypriots have done well despite 43 years of partition and they value their freedom more than the “promised land” across the border. That Turkey affects their daily lives is a propaganda myth without truth. Despite Turkey’s financial subsidies, there is personal freedom of speech and life style, unlike in Turkey.

Vlora

Hmmm.

Gold51

Erdogan respect NO Geneva convention or international law. Dictators are not interested in laws.
He plays both Russia and USA and works for both and purchases weapons from both while a Nato member.?
Erdogan can truly do as he likes, air, land or see.
He occupies and constantly violates others Soverignty ie Greece, Cyprus, Syria, Iraq, Egypt ect ect.
Erdogan will not honour agreements or disitions, written or oral.
Anything to do with money, land, oil and gas the oppertunist will take full advantage through blackmail or militery aggression…FACT.!
There is NO consequences, as when he was buying stolen Syrian oil from IS.?
This is all the international community leaders fault.
EU preaches democracy, four freedoms ect, US pledges support for small week states from large aggressive neighbours bla bla, all wind as usuale.
EU has show “NO”noticeable support or solidarity to fellow member Cyprus as Germany has recieved, or unity as “Nato members” enjoy.
Cyprus can take Turkey to court 100 times a year, if there is no support its a waist of time, £€$¥€£$ is more important to them than stability.
Erdogan and his selfish cronies will not respect court findings .
TURKEY’S POLICY ON CYPRUS REMAINS.
Erdogan will continou aggressive activities as long as the international community remain ignorantly silent.

HighTide

There is no “international community”, it’s each nation for itself.

Gold51

Not within the EU….

HighTide

You need updating on EU matters. Within the EU, most countries pursue their individual foreign relations, have their own separate armed forces under national control, have different fiscal policies and their own tax regime, etc.etc.

Gold51

Really?

HighTide

What’s your point, if any?

Athenian Owl

It seems to me the point is that the EU represents low tide conditions for Turkey.

HighTide

Off topic. The issue was independent decision making within the EU. Read again.

Athenian Owl

It’s not off topic. Regardless of what intentions the EU started with, we now know that Germany depends on the EU for its own survival. If you go to Germany and you say that the EU is composed of 28 independent countries, Germany will reply that is not so and that the preservation of the EU as a free trade zone is a matter of national survival for her. You may think you are an independent state in the EU but in reality you are not.

HighTide

The EU is a union of sovereign states that have signed treaties on specific areas, such as free trade and free movement within the union. Germany’s export has done very well prior to the existence of the EU. While free trade is important it’s not a matter of survival. Trump is sure of that :-)).
Since the EU is not a state, it has no territory of its own.
Member states take different actions in foreign relations (i.e. only some have recognized Kosovo, the Visegrad states follow their own policies). They have individual tax and budget regimes which has caused overall imbalances. Armies of member states are nationally controlled and there is no European force. Just some loose cooperation is in place.
As one can see, there is plenty of independence for member states.

Athenian Owl

On paper yes. In reality no and the reason you don’t see the conversion over to one entity are the associated costs which Germany would rather avoid. So to the extent Germany produces the same effect on the EU by all pretending independence that’s fine as long as everybody understands the german rules. I am not trying to suggest that the EU is a good or a bad thing, merely point the obvious.

HighTide

Your assertion “on paper yes” is not tenable. The above points are fact not imagination.
To believe that Germany “rules” the EU is a very popular myth but simply not true. You cannot dictate to 27 sovereign states that all have a vote and a voice. The EU parliament, democratically elected, needs to pass all laws. The all important European Central Bank is not run by Germany. Economic power surely carries weight but does not allow to dominate all issues. There are plenty of unresolved disputed among the member states.

Athenian Owl

But that’s part of the show very few understand. You claim that Germany does not control the ECB or Draghi if you wish. So when Draghi’s QE drops the value of the euro to $1.05 and Germany sells everything and the kitchen sink, do you actually believe the crocodile tears of Germany that Draghi is “ruining Europe” when in fact this is a huge benefit to Germany? Did you see what happened to the German DAX last week when finally “Draghi was defeated” and the euro shot to $1.16? Right, that’s a disaster for German trade and wait if the euro ever becomes $1.60 to see how many tears will be shed then.

HighTide

It is too simplistic to blame such movements solely on Germany. That’s just not the case. The market has its own forces.

Athenian Owl

That the markets could call the bluffs of central bankers, yes, eventually that’s true. But I am sure you heard the phrase “don’t fight the Fed”. Markets could stay emotional and unreasonable for a long time until they eventually surrender to reality.

HighTide

Right, they are.

mehmet abdi

SO MUCH LOVE IN YOU…LOL

Gold51

Stupid comment as to be expected. Should as love Erdogan?
mehmit do you live Erdogan.?

Human 01

Cyprus mail why some comments are deleted without any reason?

Human 01

I really do not understand why some of the comments here are detected as spam without any reason. This is fishy.

Parthenon

What’s the point? The UN is toothless. The big countries get their friends to block un resolutions or ignore them as in the case of Turkeys illegal occupation of Cyprus.
Only saving grace for Cyprus is that we have Greece on our side with its powerful Navy. Hence Turkeys exploration vessel is escorted by 2 Frigates. Or is the vessel fearful of a large shark?

HighTide

Resolutions of the UN General Assembly are not enforceable and exist by the thousands as part of global political ping pong. Only unanimous decisions of the Security Council count, provided someone volunteers to enforce them. Greece’s “powerful navy” will do nothing.

Well, the “dispute” started with the Greek Junta’s coup, supported by criminal Sampson and his gang, that was quashed by Turkey to prevent more murder and ethnic cleansing of Turkish Cypriots by your countrymen.

Parthenon

Greek Cypriots resisted the Coup mostly. No TC was harmed between the coup and invasion. Intercommunal strife ended in 1967. Turkey was obliged to restore the ROC and not partition it. Do we really have to go over this again?

HighTide

You started this subject with your allegation of ethnic cleansing, hence you have to deal with replies. If you believe the internal fighting stopped in 1967 your are in denial.
Whatever the case, there are now the two states on the island and you have no other choice but to live with it.

Parthenon

Let’s see. LGC News reported the other day that biggest TC parties have rejected annexation by Turkey or Two state solution. That leaves…..reunification. more talks next year?

HighTide

Annexation will not happen. Two states already exist.

Sonny Joannou

Despite my loathing of Sampson he was neither involved in the planning or the execution of the coup

HighTide

He allowed himself to be the front man after more honest politicians declined. Still a criminal and jailbird.

Sonny Joannou

At least you acknowledge that just like the public there were honest politicians. The rest of your comment is correct as the majority are aware of

HighTide

Honest politicians exist, south, north and everywhere. They are just a rare specie.

mehmet abdi

YOU DID..CHECK YOUR HISTORY

NICKDAVIS844

True, Turkey has kept the piece of Cyprus for her settlers. The G/C’s know from experience that historically Turkey uses her unique card of might is right and nothing to do with civilized values or justice as proved by invading North under the facade of a guarantor and colonized the occupied North with her settlers against the wishes of the silenced TC’s.

HighTide

You must live in Australia or some such place. The “Republic” in the south benefited from 43 years of peace on the island just the same. Come and visit some day.

NICKDAVIS844

Thank you for helping yourself to 37% of Cyprus now under Turkish control with outnumbering settlers and a stationed occupation army that is enough to silence the T/C’s and threaten the ROC with annihilation if they resist Turkish standard practices condoned by the high tides..

HighTide

I won’t argue with your personal take on history. What counts is the existence of a peaceful TRNC that is happy with Turkey’s security support. Wish you could say the same about your motherland.

Gold51

Motherland.?? Is that were your family live or even come from…get a DNA check?

HighTide

Not in yours.

mehmet abdi

ONLY SPEAK FOR YOUR SELF…AND NOT OTHER PEOPLE..43 YEARS AND NO PROLEMS…GET THE PICTURE

Gold51

You are speeking for yourself and ILLEGAL settlers.
You don’t speek for TC or reprosent them.
Another glorified Turkish propergandanist talking garbage on CM on behalf of meglamaniac Erdogan.
Your comments have been noted and dismissed.

Gold51

Do you find that sort of situation a satisfactory situation (conclusion) then…living on a cease fire?

HighTide

A peaceful ceasefire period is preferable to being ruled by someone else. The BBF has failed as you well know.

Gold51

A peaceful ceasefire period is preferable to being ruled By someone else.?
What is happening in the north for TCs.?
35K Turkish occupational forces in Cyprus.
I don’t think you have any idea what your saying.
Unbelievable attitude.

HighTide

You have no idea of the situation in the TRNC but a big mouth. Armies are stationed in most democratic countries without affecting peace. Are you afraid of your National Guard?

Eric

Judjing by how umpredictable and unstable your lovely Sultan is,
all scenarios need to be envisaged.

HighTide

Keep on envisaging.

NICKDAVIS844

Stop kidding yourself because Turkey does not depend on her powerful navy for her expansionist aims?

Parthenon

That’s why you need a powerful Navy to keep Turkey in check…duuuhhh.

HighTide

LOL!

Parthenon

Laugh it up. You think to highly of the Turkish Navy. They were so useless in 1974 that the Turkish Airforce decided to sink them. LOL!!!!!!

HighTide

Minor damage to its own equipment happens in all wars, the Americans have a long list of major damage that was self inflicted. Nevertheless, Turkey kept you running over the hills, minus or plus two ships.

Parthenon

Sure. That’s why Turkey lost 2,500 soldiers in 1974. They thought it would be a walk in the park invading a small island that suffered a devastating coup. Neutral observers may call Turkeys actions in 74 as cowardice? Invading when a small island suffers a coup.

HighTide

All war parties suffer losses, no matter how strong. What counts is final victory.

Guest

Turkey lost 498 soldiers in 1974.

mehmet abdi

SELF INFLICTED..YOU GOT WHAT YOU DESERVED …GET OVER IT..

Gold51

Turkey deserves whats coming…..dont bother.
All in good time. Back to the begging bowl.

HighTide

Occupied by Greece.

Vlora

Yes,Greece .

redstorm

really they lost a lot more ,,, don’t believe media reports,,,,,,,

NICKDAVIS844

Please don’t try to magnify the power of bankrupt Greece believing it will keep Turkey in check.

Greece is the only country in Europe fullfilling its obligation to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Greece is one of the few countries in Europe, incl. Cyprus, maintaining a primary budget surplus. Turkey is going bankrupt, Lira dropping like a stone, 4 million unemployed: such a small cointry cannot maintain the second largest military in the world. Anti-Greece lies will not hide that fact that Turkey is going belly-up and needs to steal Cypriot hydrocarbons and Syrian oil.

Guest

Greece is not the only NATO member country in Europe fullfilling its obligation to spend 2% of GDP on defence.

Only 5 NATO members spend more than 2% of GDP on defence. Here’s a breakdown of each country’s contribution, based on 2016 figures provided by NATO:

United States, 3.61%.

Greece, 2.38%.

Britain, 2.21%.

Estonia, 2.16%.

Poland, 2%.

France, 1.78%.

Turkey, 1.56%.

Norway, 1.54%.

Lithuania, 1.49%.

Romania, 1.48%.

Latvia, 1.45%.

Portugal, 1.38%.

Bulgaria, 1.35%.

Croatia, 1.23%.

Albania, 1.21%.

Germany, 1.19%.

Denmark, 1.17%.

Netherlands, 1.17%.

Slovakia, 1.16%.

Italy, 1.11%.

Czech Republic, 1.04%.

Hungary, 1.01%.

Canada, 0.99%.

Slovenia, 0.94%.

Spain, 0.91%.

Belgium, 0.85%.

Luxembourg, 0.44%.

HighTide

NATO members have no “obligation” to spend 2% on defense. This is a recommended target to reach in 2020.
The US has higher expenses due to its self appointed role as world policeman that is more often doing more harm than good. There is no reason for other countries to co-finance hegemony.
Greece is overspending in relation to its financial status and this may well be connected to excessive arms orders that bring brown envelopes along.

Thank you. I am happy to be proven wrong. In 2012, Greece’s military expenditure was 4% of GDP, so I was probably quoting old news. Your list makes pretty sad reading. It is Interesting that Germany is only on 1.19%. It was Germany which forced Greece to honour its €3bn contract to buy German submarines, even after the country went bankrupt in 2010. The scandal went deeper, because the Germans had bribed corrupt Greek politicians to sign the deal and the subs were faulty.

mehmet abdi

LOSER

HighTide

On what planet do you live? Greece is utterly bankrupt and depends wholly on loans and subsidies from EU and World Bank. Her army can hardly afford fuel.

It’s all about the Greek government keeping the NPLs of the big German banks on its books while the European Stability Mechanism bails out the German banks via the back door. Greeks understand this. But dumbass Erdogan supporters have no clue about how the world really works.

HighTide

I don’t know about Erdogan supporters. I only know that you have no clue of Greece’s poor finance and economy, unless you prefer to knowingly cheat yourself in believing this fairy tale.

mehmet abdi

YES YOUR RIGHT….THERE SCARED OF THE SHARK..

Human 01

According to Turkey, islands cannot have an EEZ because of the Kastelorizo, Storggyli and Ro Greek islands. If you see where these little Greek islands are located you will understand why Turkey makes such a fuss about it. Turkey has this opinion so that it can prevent a unification of the Greek and Cypriot EEZ. Turkish politicians are smart as foxes I will give them that and our politicians are sleeping. If we go to Hague, Greece must come with us because of the Kastelorizo issue in my opinion. Greece also wanted to go to Hague with Turkey because of EEZ disputes but they have changed their minds many times because as Greeks said they cannot gamble with inhabited Greek islands like for example Samos and Kos. It is about time to go to Hague all of us and end this disputes.

HighTide

You cannot go to The Hague. It’s a court for war crimes only. Get better info.

Parthenon

Not sure if Cyprus can now take Turkey to the Hague for war crimes in 1974.

HighTide

“Not sure” is correct.

Vlora

No.

Greek coup on 15 july 1974 fits in the scenerio to be referred to Hague.

So all your own life , you will dream about bringing Turkey to Hague, to attack Turkey , to help kurds but will never think to move forward and let past go?How about having some amicable but unconditional negotiations with TCs ? Deal with Turkey.Do n’t fight with Turkey .

RebelJim

1963 was the genocide against Turkish Cypriots by greek Cypriot nationalist and EOKA
TC’s should take GC’s to Hague for genocide which evidence is all documented by British MP Michael Stephen.

Gold51

Genocid???? What next.
Garbage to keep this obnoxious over 50 year old story alive to serve Erdogans policy.
Errrrr….5000 GC dead,
1000000 Armenians dead
We could go on….right back to 1571.

Human 01

The international court of justice is known as Hague also. Read the fifth paragraph of the article.

HighTide

You have no case for this court that has no enforcement powers to boot. It’s in the hands of the Security Council.

Louis

A war crime is exactly what Turkey committed in 74. Didn’t you know?
What else would you call the murder of 5000 civilians, and the expulsion of 200000 from their home?

HighTide

Interesting, my friend. Do you not believe someone a bit more clever than you should have taken action during
the past 43 years, if there was a legal case?

Why does Charles Ellinas want to undermine RoC sovereignty with this dangerous proposal? By seeking arbitration over Turkey’s spurious territorial claims, the RoC will legitimise them. Is this what Ellinas wants? This is the same blunder Anastasiades made when he upgraded Akinci to one of the five co-equal stakeholders at Geneva and passed the buck to Eide and Guterres to take charge of the Cyprus problem. Mr Ellinas, I ask you to put aside the insidious geo-political agenda of your employer, the Atlantic Council, and strive for justice.

Louis

And what make Mr Ellinas think that Turkey would abide by any courts decision? Have they ever done so?
And who is going to enforce such a decision?

HighTide

Arbitration is not a “court decision”, it’s voluntary dispute settling. Each party may participate or not.

schrodinger’s cat

True, arbitration is an out of court optional settlement. But it sill won’t stop the turks from not implementing it

HighTide

Arbitration is only binding if all parties to it agree. There is no indication that Turkey wishes to go to arbitration.

alexander reutersward

let’s see if there is anything valuable first, as prices fall and demand fall it might not be worth anything at all

Vlora

True.

johnnywires

all the world now is run by gas.europe is no exeption.gas will always be in demand.petrol will not stay at a low price forever.

HighTide

Wall Street Journal
March 14, 2017 9:10 p.m. ET
“A flood of natural gas swamping the U.S. is turning into a global glut, sinking prices and dimming the hopes of American producers to export their way out of an oversupplied domestic market.”
Total has signed an agreement with Iran to open the world’s largest gas field there. Expect more over supply.

alexander reutersward

actually, the use of fossil fuel is estimated to fall with 80% before 2050, Volkswagen, Mercedes etc all have 30% of their models as electric cars coming in 2020. cost of solar power have fallen and is cheaper than coal and gas.

there will always be a demand for oil and gas for special areas such as airplanes, but the lower demand will make extraction from difficult areas unnecessary and prices will remain low.

mehmet abdi

YES JUST LIKE FOOLS GOLD…

HighTide

A sound analysis that should sober up some enthusiasts. Whatever happens will be years down the line, and no guarantee of economic conditions at that time can be given, while the question of transport is unresolved too. Since Turkey is not party to the Law of the Sea Treaty, arbitration on that basis seems rather futile. Other than monitoring, Turkey has not taken any serious measures and is likely to use diplomatic and commercial means to protect her rights and those of Turkish Cypriots.

NICKDAVIS844

Turkey invades, occupies, colonizers stations an army in an independent country acknowledged by all the earths civilized peoples and you pretend Turkeys Erdogans lust for oil will not include the tool of Turkeys trade and take what he (only) claims belongs to the Pseudo TRNC for her illegally settled and unrecognized North. If forward planning Turkey has not used courts to claim, it is a good sign that she thinks her chances are slim to pursue doing so.

HighTide

“All the earths civilized peoples” could not find Cyprus on a map.
Once you have “oil” come back here.

Parthenon

Absolutely agree. Criminal states are more inclined to ignore international laws than other countries.

HighTide

Which “international laws”?

Parthenon

Illegal invasion
Cultural destruction
Importing Settlers

To name but a few that Turkey is guilty of.

HighTide

Please quote relevant enforceable laws, not personal allegations.

Parthenon

I don’t have the UN handbook to hand right now. You look it up if you want.

HighTide

Waffler. What UN handbook? You referred to “international law”. A bad escape!

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