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Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

Valuing Relief Correctly

I messed up. All season, I've been rating Jim Johnson as an average closer. He's come in in the third tier most weeks, averaging about a 12th-to-16th place ranking. My reasoning -- that he costs you strikeouts more than any other closer in baseball, and that the Orioles can't be counted upon to continue giving him so many save opportunities -- is still sound in my mind.

But I probably should rank him higher. Say, about tenth or eleventh.

In an ongoing conversation with a reader, I kept coming back to the value of a good strikeout rate from a reliever. Jim Johnson cedes five strikeouts every nine innings on an average closer, and that's meaningful. You have your relief slots, and I have mine, and if I have a lot of Jim Johnsons, I'm going to have to make up strikeouts with my starting staff, and starters have a lower strikeout-per-inning pace than relievers. Strikeouts from relievers matter.

If you run a valuation of the closers and just the closers alone, Jim Johnson comes out 18th in baseball this season. The other closers dominate him in strikeouts, and the average closer's 2.88 ERA is just too close to his 2.91 ERA to make that valuable. Since I write in the closer's world for this article, I may have gotten lost down this rabbit hole, only looking at the position against itself.

But of course, a staff is a staff, and on some level at least, a strikeout is a strikeout. So of course you want to evaluate your closers within the pitcher universe too. I re-ran the valuations (look at the bottom of this piece for those backward-looking rankings) -- which use standard deviations above the mean in each category to put an overall number on a player's contributions -- but this time all of pitching was the baseline. Since the starters were involved, they brought down the average strikeout rate, and Johnson's strikeout rate wasn't as bad to his overall ranking. Now Jim Johnson came out eighth.

So I'll return to the Orioles. They have a good bullpen, but their offense is not good. Those are the only two things that predict save opportunities with any reliability. Since he's missing one, it makes sense to expect fewer saves going forward. After all, the Orioles have been overachieving this season, and more losses means fewer saves. So dock Johnson a couple spots off his valuation for fewer saves going forward, and you have his current ranking -- 11th, at the top of the third tier.

And yes, to some extent this is irrelevant. Congratulations to everyone that picked him up on the cheap. We got a lot of bang for our buck. I traded Jim Johnson away most of the time, maybe you kept him, but the investment turned out to be a good one. But, looking at the closer landscape, this conversation is going to be important -- not only for when we attempt to evaluate closers in-season, but especially when we do our keeper rankings. Because if Johnson does this same dance next year, but only manages 30 saves, he won't be a very valuable closer.

I'll name the tiers after representative closers from that backwards-looking valuation. Remember, Saves and Steals is about looking forward, and these look backwards, but they are useful nonetheless.

Aroldis Chapman would obviously be atop any valuation. He's been lights-out, with little indication that his early trouble warming up for back-to-back appearances was a hindrance. Recently, though, Chapman has hit a velocity dip so even if he's still averaging mid-nineties heat, there might be something to worry about, long-term. He hasn't been the healthiest chap. In the short term, it looks like he'll be shut down. We could take him off the list, but instead, we'll risk it and just make a note that Jonathan Broxton is getting save opportunities in the short term. Still, you can see the red flag pretty clearly on his velocity chart:

Joe Nathan showed up tenth in the valuations because of his meager saves total (31), but his ratios are elite and his team has both a great offense and a great bullpen around him. I can't think of a player, save Rafael Soriano, who's in a better position to rack up saves. So he'll stay here despite his valuation to this point.

Fernando Rodney has done it mostly with great control, an average amount of strikeouts, and a great amount of saves, which might be what you'd expect from Joe Nathan any given year. On the other hand, I'd still expect it from Joe Nathan more than Fernando Rodney next season, and I'm not surprised that he therefore shows up a few rungs below Nathan.

Ernesto Frieri hit a slump in late August and early September, but it had nothing to do with his work. It's a tiny sample, but in his last six outings, he has 14 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings! And one walk! The slump was all at the hands of his teammates, who failed to give him save opportunities. But the Angels have a strong team in multiple facets, and now they're rolling again. Frieri is rock steady and might even give you three times the strikeouts of a Jim Johnson over the next three weeks.

Tom Wilhelmsen, on the other hand, ended up 13th on the valuation, but that includes two-plus months in which he was not a closer. He was a good enough reliever to accrue value in April and May that he beat out full year relievers like Chris Perez. So, going forward, he seems like a solid bet, even if he did lose his fastball control a little recently… well actually it is worrisome that Wilhelmsen is showing poor control again. That was always the problem with him as a prospect, and it even showed up in Seattle for a bit. It seemed like it was behind him, but then the Bartender hit this stretch -- in the last ten outings, he has nine walks! That's a developing issue.

J.J. Putz drops a tier. His work to date has come in at 18th, the Diamondbacks aren't necessarily any better going forward than they've been in the past, and now he might be hurt or sick. Add to this the fact that he's not under contract for next season and the team may want to give David Hernandez a little run in the role at the end of the season, and you see why. Still love his strikeout-to-walk ratio, still hate his inability to stay healthy. Repeat all of this conversation, minus the health issues, but heavier on the team struggles component, and you've got your Rafael Betancourt blurb.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.

I messed up. All season, I've been rating Jim Johnson as an average closer. He's come in in the third tier most weeks, averaging about a 12th-to-16th place ranking. My reasoning -- that he costs you strikeouts more than any other closer in baseball, and that the Orioles can't be counted upon to continue giving him so many save opportunities -- is still sound in my mind.

But I probably should rank him higher. Say, about tenth or eleventh.

In an ongoing conversation with a reader, I kept coming back to the value of a good strikeout rate from a reliever. Jim Johnson cedes five strikeouts every nine innings on an average closer, and that's meaningful. You have your relief slots, and I have mine, and if I have a lot of Jim Johnsons, I'm going to have to make up strikeouts with my starting staff, and starters have a lower strikeout-per-inning pace than relievers. Strikeouts from relievers matter.

If you run a valuation of the closers and just the closers alone, Jim Johnson comes out 18th in baseball this season. The other closers dominate him in strikeouts, and the average closer's 2.88 ERA is just too close to his 2.91 ERA to make that valuable. Since I write in the closer's world for this article, I may have gotten lost down this rabbit hole, only looking at the position against itself.

But of course, a staff is a staff, and on some level at least, a strikeout is a strikeout. So of course you want to evaluate your closers within the pitcher universe too. I re-ran the valuations (look at the bottom of this piece for those backward-looking rankings) -- which use standard deviations above the mean in each category to put an overall number on a player's contributions -- but this time all of pitching was the baseline. Since the starters were involved, they brought down the average strikeout rate, and Johnson's strikeout rate wasn't as bad to his overall ranking. Now Jim Johnson came out eighth.

So I'll return to the Orioles. They have a good bullpen, but their offense is not good. Those are the only two things that predict save opportunities with any reliability. Since he's missing one, it makes sense to expect fewer saves going forward. After all, the Orioles have been overachieving this season, and more losses means fewer saves. So dock Johnson a couple spots off his valuation for fewer saves going forward, and you have his current ranking -- 11th, at the top of the third tier.

And yes, to some extent this is irrelevant. Congratulations to everyone that picked him up on the cheap. We got a lot of bang for our buck. I traded Jim Johnson away most of the time, maybe you kept him, but the investment turned out to be a good one. But, looking at the closer landscape, this conversation is going to be important -- not only for when we attempt to evaluate closers in-season, but especially when we do our keeper rankings. Because if Johnson does this same dance next year, but only manages 30 saves, he won't be a very valuable closer.

I'll name the tiers after representative closers from that backwards-looking valuation. Remember, Saves and Steals is about looking forward, and these look backwards, but they are useful nonetheless.

Aroldis Chapman would obviously be atop any valuation. He's been lights-out, with little indication that his early trouble warming up for back-to-back appearances was a hindrance. Recently, though, Chapman has hit a velocity dip so even if he's still averaging mid-nineties heat, there might be something to worry about, long-term. He hasn't been the healthiest chap. In the short term, it looks like he'll be shut down. We could take him off the list, but instead, we'll risk it and just make a note that Jonathan Broxton is getting save opportunities in the short term. Still, you can see the red flag pretty clearly on his velocity chart:

Joe Nathan showed up tenth in the valuations because of his meager saves total (31), but his ratios are elite and his team has both a great offense and a great bullpen around him. I can't think of a player, save Rafael Soriano, who's in a better position to rack up saves. So he'll stay here despite his valuation to this point.

Fernando Rodney has done it mostly with great control, an average amount of strikeouts, and a great amount of saves, which might be what you'd expect from Joe Nathan any given year. On the other hand, I'd still expect it from Joe Nathan more than Fernando Rodney next season, and I'm not surprised that he therefore shows up a few rungs below Nathan.

Ernesto Frieri hit a slump in late August and early September, but it had nothing to do with his work. It's a tiny sample, but in his last six outings, he has 14 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings! And one walk! The slump was all at the hands of his teammates, who failed to give him save opportunities. But the Angels have a strong team in multiple facets, and now they're rolling again. Frieri is rock steady and might even give you three times the strikeouts of a Jim Johnson over the next three weeks.

Tom Wilhelmsen, on the other hand, ended up 13th on the valuation, but that includes two-plus months in which he was not a closer. He was a good enough reliever to accrue value in April and May that he beat out full year relievers like Chris Perez. So, going forward, he seems like a solid bet, even if he did lose his fastball control a little recently… well actually it is worrisome that Wilhelmsen is showing poor control again. That was always the problem with him as a prospect, and it even showed up in Seattle for a bit. It seemed like it was behind him, but then the Bartender hit this stretch -- in the last ten outings, he has nine walks! That's a developing issue.

J.J. Putz drops a tier. His work to date has come in at 18th, the Diamondbacks aren't necessarily any better going forward than they've been in the past, and now he might be hurt or sick. Add to this the fact that he's not under contract for next season and the team may want to give David Hernandez a little run in the role at the end of the season, and you see why. Still love his strikeout-to-walk ratio, still hate his inability to stay healthy. Repeat all of this conversation, minus the health issues, but heavier on the team struggles component, and you've got your Rafael Betancourt blurb.

Just a year ago, these two dudes were second-tier closers. Sure, it was obvious that Jose Valverde was in a decline, as long as you looked past his saves streak and to the peripheral numbers. And yeah, we always knew that John Axford's secret was his terrible control in the minors. So maybe there were some lessons to learn -- keeping closers is painful, and any whiff of an issue should be considered -- but what can we do now but groan.

Grant Balfour falls a tier with his no-out, two-run, two-walk, two-hit hit job Tuesday night, but it's not just on his work alone. The valuations love Ryan Cook's sterling strikeout rates and have him at 16th overall so far this year. You can also see that Cookie only has four walks since August first and has seemingly righted ship. He's getting holds and saves now, and could be back in the job as soon as tomorrow. The A's need every win desperately.

Wilton Lopez got a save! His fourth. He even struck two guys out. His team scored one run and won somehow. Oh… they played the Cubs.

Well at least these two guys that gave this tier their name are currently relevant? Broxton hasn't actually recovered this season, as evidenced by his career-worst strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, but at least he's showing the second-best control of his career. Then again, people are centering the ball off of him, his line drive rate is up… never mind. He's hopefully just filling in for a week or so at most. Wilton Lopez? He's 2015's Jim Johnson. Only with more strikeouts. Who am I kidding? Will the Astros ever be good again?

The rest of these dudes? Not sure we learned a thing this week about any of them.

Okay, Javier Lopez came in way too early in a couple games early this week, so maybe he's not in the co-chair with Sergio Romo anymore. Except that Lopez just got a one-out save Tuesday night. And Santiago Casilla keeps getting high-leverage work, maybe someone should notice that. Wait, did we learn anything in San Francisco this week?

In New York, the team offense and bullpen are still terrible, even if Jon Rauch and Captain Fastball Bobby Parnell have been okay at times. In Minnesota, the bullpen is okay, but the team just isn't winning. Los Angeles is a problem, and Kenley Jansen is on his way back next week. Huston Street is even closer to the closer role.

Let's just continue to do streaming updates. No sense in looking at anything but the schedule right in front of you when you're in the midst of a dogfight in a category or a head-to-head playoff. Pittsburgh is once again facing Chicago, which is just silly because I really don't want to recommend Darwin Barney again. But just look at the Pirates' box scores and you can see teams are running wild on them. Maybe a deep leaguer wants to take a chance on Brett Jackson. The Indians are also bad against the run, and they've got Detroit in town. That means Omar Infante is a great play in any league, especially since you can plug him in around your infield. At least he won't hurt you.

Deep leaguers might want to look at the Atlanta-Washington series, since Washington is also bad at catching basestealers. Andrelton Simmons is back and has legit speed, he might be a good pickup. Deep leaguers can consider Jose Constanza, who's really the heavy side of the platoon in left field these days. Texas -- even with Geovany Soto behind the plate, since he is just as bad at throwing out runners than anyone else in that tandem -- provides opportunity with Seattle in town. Mostly deep leaguers (Brendan Ryan, Franklin Gutierrez), but shallow leaguers might want to plug in Kyle Seager around the diamond. The last team that's separated itself (in a bad way) from the pack is Minnesota. They get the White Sox this weekend, so maybe it's time to pick up Alejandro De Aza or Alexei Ramirez. Deep leaguers? DeWayne Wise?