> Keep one thing in mind, this model has been way, way off > on the Ravens this postseason.

It also seems like the Ravens are playing out of their minds this post-season -- way better than during the regular season. Usually that sort of thing ends with reversion to the mean. (Sometimes, the mean ends up moving instead. Notably, the 49ers are having a much better season that most people expected after their surprising performance last year.)

Something to be aware of is that the variance in football is huge. People talk about single score games, but a lucky interception could easily make a net 14 point difference in a game.

> In the first round, of the 3 home teams favored by this > model the Ravens were the smallest at .61 but yet won by the > largest margin of any team, 24-9 (15 pts), go figure.

On a single-game sample, 15 points is well within expected variation. Baltimore also has an unusually large home field advantage which can be tricky to account for in modeling.

@BBurkeESPN

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