Voter turnout and E-voting trials

Karen Webster
Member with Delegated Authority
Defence and Defence Anti-Corruption Index, Local Government

By Dr Karen Webster
TINZ Member with delegated authority responsible for local government

The voter turnout challenge

Voter turnout in New Zealand’s local government elections has been declining nationally since 1992. This followed a peak of 52.8% at the 1989 introduction of postal voting. Turnout reached a low of 42% in 2013 and then stabilised at 43% in 2016.

Auckland voter turnout increased to 51% from interest generated around the 2010 amalgamation of Auckland councils. It has fallen since, to 35% in 2013 and 38% in 2016. The latter figure compares with 79% voter turnout nationwide in last year’s general election.

The results of an LGNZ survey following the 2016 election have shown that the main reasons people give for not voting are:

not knowing enough about the candidates – 31%

forgot or left too late – 24%

not interested – 14%

too busy – 14%.

New Zealand’s local body voter turnout is lower than a number of OECD countries with similar forms of government, including Ireland, Denmark and Norway. But New Zealand’s turnout is higher than in Australia, England and Canada.

Interestingly, the declining turnout is quite varied across New Zealand. Much healthier turnout levels are achieved in smaller districts which have lower representation ratios, compared to those with higher ratios. This suggests that the nature of our democracy impacts people’s engagement with local government.

Turnoutenhancement

A proposal has been developed but now halted, to trial online voting for several volunteer councils, during the 2019 local authority elections. There is optimism that once online voting garners confidence, it would complement other voter turnout improvement efforts.

However, evidence to date also suggests that online voting may not be a panacea for improved voter turnout, as had been hoped.

LGNZ President Dave Cull says in order to improve voter turnout, the first step is to raise public awareness of the value of local government and the role it plays in the everyday lives of New Zealanders. He suggests that creating a larger pool of skilled candidates is another key step to improving local democracy. This would ensure that the value that local government delivers to its communities, remains high. A significant number of citizens interested in the process don’t vote. Others want to vote but say it’s too hard to find the information they need to make an informed decision.

The online voting project

The councils have been working closely with the Department of Internal Affairs, which is developing a set of regulations for the online voting trial. This is to ensure that strict security protocols are in place if a trial does proceed.

They have developed a business case assessing the scope, risks and costs involved in running an online voting trial for the 2019 local government elections. If the trial had gone ahead, all voters registered with the participating councils would have had the option to vote online. The exception is Auckland Council where the trial would have been offered to a subset of roughly 10% of electors, with that subset yet to be decided.

The councils are looking to invest in an online system with extremely high levels of assurance and will work with independent security experts to ensure stringent independent auditing, reviewing and verification processes.

For local government, the security of the system is paramount and isn’t something the working party takes lightly. If it isn’t confident that a secure system can be delivered, then the trial wouldn’t proceed. Voters in the trial areas would still be posted voting papers, giving them the option to vote via post or online.

Delbet explains the working party’s thoughts around security. “No online system is ever 100% secure, but neither is the postal voting system, which is becoming more expensive, less reliable, and less time effective. The current voting period is three weeks. But we lose one week getting papers in the mail and another week getting them back, not to mention the decline in the number of post boxes.”

Participating councils were expected to appoint an online system provider prior to Christmas after tenders called in September. These provided more information including costs, and allow individual councils to make a final decision on whether or not to take part in the trial.

The trial councils would have worked closely with the system provider to ensure compliance with the regulations. Independent experts would have been hired to identify any weaknesses or bugs that needed to be addressed before launching the system.

Overseas experiences

Estonia

Estonia has developed the most advanced digital governments on the planet. It has adopted a successful internet voting system with novel security measures. As the first country to use internet voting nationally, their security measures are highly relevant to the proposal to undertake an online voting trial in New Zealand. See E-voting in Estonia.

Estonia offers a paper ballot voting system alongside online voting, as is proposed for the New Zealand trial. A recent study conducted by the University of Tartu spans 12 years and nine election cycles. It shows positive results in terms of online voting being habit-forming, reducing costs of participation, as well as providing statistical evidence that internet voting has led to a small increase in voting turnout.

Ontario, Canada

Ontario, Canada has used online voting in 173 elections by 98 local governments, spanning four election periods.

Ontario offers an ideal setting to identify online voting’s effect on turnout because the reform was adopted sequentially, over time and space, across numerous binding local elections. Evidence from Canadian researchers identify 3.5% increases in voter turnout.

Online voting trial

Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) will continue working with an online voting working group and several local authorities, to trial online voting but no longer part of the 2019 local authority elections.

In October this year, the local government online-voting pilot working party released a tender for a hosted online voting system that is to be at least as secure as current postal voting. The working party is also promoting “The Local Electoral Matters Bill” – now before Parliament to enable the trial. It includes changes to the legal framework governing local body elections.

The purpose of the trial was to:

future-proof voting as the postal service declines and becomes more costly

enhance accessibility, especially to assist those with a disability in voting

ease and convenience to all

potentially increase turnout.

Benefits

Marguerite Delbet, General Manager of Democracy Services at Auckland Council, is the spokesperson for the online voting working party. She says: “Online voting will not only make voting more convenient for voters, but also improve accessibility to local elections for those who can’t vote independently, or who are overseas during the election and are unable to vote at all.”

With one of the largest postal-mail volumes-decline rates in the world, the New Zealand postal service is becoming more expensive and less efficient. “Online voting will enable ease of access, more convenience and an alternative method in the face of a declining postal system in New Zealand,” says Delbet.

“Voting at a polling booth is not a practical solution, as local elections have a much larger array of options and votes to consider than other elections. For example, in Waitakere in 2016 there were 21 different positions with 78 candidates.”

In Cull’s words “Online voting may increase turnout, but we don’t anticipate a complete sea-change. What we do believe is that online voting will enable ease of access, more convenience and an alternative method in the face of a declining postal system in New Zealand.”

Issues

The project is controversial. Expectations about the impact on voter turnout are a point of contention. Also, serious concerns are being raised about system security and the imperative for citizens to have confidence in the integrity of the process.

Ultimately, the cost burden to the councils involved, forced the decision to halt the trial.

Conclusion

As New Zealand’s Maxim Institute observes, online voting won’t necessarily improve turnout as clearly demonstrated by experience both here and abroad. Stats NZ attempted its first online Census earlier this year, resulting in “the lowest participation nationally for the past five surveys.”

Delbert acknowledges that people have reservations about voting online – just as people were sceptical about internet banking or paying online via credit card when these options first become available. However from survey results, the working party also knows that plenty of people want to vote online and hope that giving voters greater convenience and accessibility will mean more people can be actively involved in choosing the people who represent them.

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