TONY JONES, PRESENTER: Just a short time ago we were joined by one of the key ministers who turned his support from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd, the Foreign Minister Bob Carr. And pay attention to the significant shift on asylum seekers in the second part of his interview.

Bob Carr, thanks for joining us.

BOB CARR, FOREIGN MINISTER: Pleasure.

TONY JONES: Now you're making history tonight, going back to a sacked Prime Minister to save the party. What makes you think it's got any chance of working?

BOB CARR: Well I think suddenly the next election has become very contestable. I think for those Labor Party people concerned that our achievements in disabilities, in schools, in health, in environment were at risk from an Abbott government, there is now hope. I would expect that our support would bounce back pretty quickly to where it was in 2010 and then it's up to us to go forward from that. The election ...

TONY JONES: What happens when the novelty wears off?

BOB CARR: Well - yeah, the novelty?, the novelty? The novelty of looking at Tony Abbott and scrutinising Tony Abbott because all of a sudden with this decision we took today, all of a sudden Tony Abbott's policies must be scrutinised. The total absence of a policy on education or health, for example, suddenly becomes - suddenly emerges in clear focus. The choice for the Australian people as to whether you want Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd representing this country at the G20 in September in St Petersburg becomes very clear. Whether you want economic management entrusted to the leader who saved us from the GFC or to someone who was discovered with a $70 billion black hole in his economic calculations.

TONY JONES: I'll go back to this issue: does he have to have the election as soon as possible before the cracks that you're all busily papering over tonight start to reappear?

BOB CARR: Listen, the only cracks are with the Opposition - the cracks that reveal Tony Abbott has been running on slogans, not on policies. The fact that we've resolved the leadership issue ...

TONY JONES: Well you've just lost the first female - or gotten rid of the first female Prime Minister in Australian history, plus a whole raft of cabinet ministers have disappeared, many of them who hate Kevin Rudd. I mean, I'm saying there are cracks.

BOB CARR: Well, I mean, we've made a big decision, we've made a big decision, we've replaced one leader with another, but Kevin Rudd is no surprise to the Australian people. He's known as the leader who led us through the GFC, he's got enormous standing overseas is. Again: who do you want representing Australia at the G20: Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd? He's got credibility and I believe the next election is suddenly contestable. Still a big ask for a party whose standing in the polls has been depleted, but all of a sudden people on our side of politics have got hope. And all of a sudden - this is the next part of the equation - all of a sudden people are going to be looking with real scrutiny at the absence of policies on the other side.

TONY JONES: Why did you come to the conclusion that Julia Gillard had to go?

BOB CARR: Well, a great admirer of Julia Gillard. She brought me back into politics. She gave me the job of Foreign Minister. I came to greatly admire her work as a leader, as a chair of government committees, of cabinet above all. I thought she was very good.

TONY JONES: Sure, but you didn't give her your loyalty, so why did you come to the ... ?

BOB CARR: I thought she was very good.

TONY JONES: But you didn't give her your loyalty.

BOB CARR: But too, Tony, is at risk in this. Too much is at risk. We could focus on loyalty to personalities and neglect loyalty to our party and loyalty to Australia. I believe it's overwhelmingly in Australia's interest that this government is returned under Kevin Rudd and overwhelmingly in Australia's interests that Tony Abbott not be our national leader. That was the reason I and my colleagues made a decision. It was to a higher loyalty, if you like: that to the party and that to the country.

TONY JONES: Will women forgive you, forgive the party for terminating the career of Australia's first woman Prime Minister?

BOB CARR: Well that's an interesting proposition, and I recall in US politics when the Democrats in 2008, after a fairly bitterly-fought primary contest, relegated Hillary Clinton and settled on Barack Obama and there was speculation that - there were women who would not turn out to vote for candidate Obama. In the end, looking at the policies on women of the conservatives, the female turnout behind Barack Obama was decisive and the same here, the same here.

TONY JONES: This is all about polls, so is that what your polling, your internal polling is telling you, that Kevin Rudd still has women? Women will still vote for Kevin Rudd even though he's destroyed the career of the first female Prime Minister?

BOB CARR: Well I think that is the case. I think Labor will win a majority of the female vote, but I think we'll win a majority of the male vote. I think this again makes the election competitive. And people, people in my position, people in that caucus looking at the depletion of support for us reflected not only in polls, but reflected in the feedback we were getting from electorates said: this is one of those occasions when you take a deep breath and think of loyalty to the institution and the loyalty you owe to get the best policies for Australia and in that spirit we made the hard decision we had to make today.

TONY JONES: You know many of your senior colleagues who've stepped down because they say they simply can't work with Kevin Rudd. They ...

TONY JONES: Well, this is what many of them said and they said many worse things in the past. They said he was a dysfunctional leader, they wanted to bury him as deeply as they possibly could. They want to put a stake through his heart and kill him off and now he's back. I mean, how are you gonna keep those people under control?

BOB CARR: That interpretation's wrong. The very dignified comments by Wayne Swan, who'd been Deputy to Julia Gillard, really make the case. He was saying that his career was expressed as Treasurer to her. He found fulfilment as being her Deputy and made a decision, with her going, to move on himself. I thought his comments were - I thought his comments demonstrated the loyalty to party and the loyalty to Australia.

TONY JONES: Is that - Bill Shorten played a critical role here in what was clearly a carefully engineered coup in the end. He came out right before the caucus vote, spoke in a very quiet, almost timid voice when he said that he was withdrawing his support from Julia Gillard. It must have been a shockingly difficult thing for him to do, or was he already in the bag?

BOB CARR: It was a difficult choice for us. We are admirers of Julia and what she's done, the style of her leadership, the efficiency she's brought to her relations with her colleagues, the leadership she's provided the nation. We could not - in the interests of the broader loyalty we've got here, we couldn't overlook the depletion of Labor support with the risk - people on our side ...

TONY JONES: I'm talking about Bill Shorten here because he was a key player.

BOB CARR: Listen, I can't analyse a colleague, but I'm saying I think he's motivated by what motivated all of us: what we see - excuse us for saying this, excuse us for being partisan - what we see as the risk to our achievements in government on schools, on disability, on the environment, on economic management that got this country beyond the Global Financial Crisis by electing Tony Abbott.

TONY JONES: Alright.

BOB CARR: The chances of blocking an Abbott prime ministership which repels and frightens and disturbs and concerns a lot of Australians is enhanced by what the Labor caucus did today. To recognise a loyalty to the party and to the country which - very hard for Julia Gillard - supplants our loyalty to her. But she goes with our esteem.

TONY JONES: Alright. Yes, that's what you've - that's the point you've made. I want to just quickly go to what Kevin Rudd might be able to do to change the national conversation on policy. I mean, could he, for example, change asylum seeker policy dramatically? Could he do what Tony Abbott is promising to do: turn back the boats or stop the boats?

BOB CARR: Well I said in the Labor caucus this week: we've got to recognise - and the people who've expressed noble sentiments on refugee rights have got to recognise that under our noses, the nature of this problem has changed. The people coming here by irregular means, irregular maritime arrivals, in the language of the bureaucracy, are being brought here by people smugglers - all of them, being brought here as part of a criminal commercial organisation. Second change: they're not people fleeing persecution. They're coming from majority religious or ethnic groups in the countries their fleeing, they're coming here as economic migrants. And the third: there is an unsustainable spike in their numbers. It's not the old days where their number were so few, a person with noble instincts could say let them just slide into the population.

TONY JONES: Do some mathematics here. If they're economic migrants, why do nine out of 10 of them pretty much get accepted as genuine refugees? Are you saying we've got that wrong?

BOB CARR: Yeah, we've reached the view that as a result of court and tribunal decisions, it's coming up wrong. We need a tougher, more hard-edged assessment. And again I say to those Australians who believe this country ought to distinguish itself by its decency to refugees, the problem in front of us measurably has changed. It is people smuggling, it is people coming here as economic migrants, it is people coming here in numbers that will push aside our generous humanitarian intake as part of our regular migration program.

TONY JONES: OK. So is there a possibility that Kevin Rudd could do a Tony Abbott and simply say, "In my first days in office - or back in office as Prime Minister, I'm gonna stop the boats, turn them back if necessary, use the Navy," that sort of thing?

BOB CARR: No. Tony, that's irresponsible language and Kevin Rudd pointed out two weeks ago on the ABC that the Tony Abbott rhetoric of "I will stop the boats" as if by magic is ridiculous and unsustainable. Tony Abbott by the way has retreated from that, beaten a retreat from that. It's stop the boats in the first year and then it evolved into - it's transmuted now into stopping the boats - stopping the boats in the first term.

TONY JONES: I've gotta ask you this important question 'cause Kevin Rudd very likely will be going as Prime Minister to Indonesia to meet the President of Indonesia. That meeting is already set in cement. The agenda is set in cement. Can he take any new agenda to that meeting?

BOB CARR: We're working on the agenda. I'm going to Jakarta tomorrow to work with the Foreign Minister and other ministers on that agenda and I would hope that Kevin Rudd, notwithstanding all the burdens that have now appeared on his shoulders, will be able to fit that into his schedule.

TONY JONES: And will people smuggling be top of the agenda since it is top of the political agenda here?

BOB CARR: Kevin Rudd no more than I is going to reduce our relationship with Indonesia, our most important, closest neighbour to a one-issue concern. It's about more than that, but obviously it's going to figure big.

TONY JONES: Figure big?

BOB CARR: It will figure big. But we - I'm not going to say things that suggest we will boil down the relationship with this most important of our close neighbours to a single-issue concern. The relationship with Indonesia ...

TONY JONES: No, but it'll figure big ...

BOB CARR: It'll figure big.

TONY JONES: ... and no-one knows what that means.

BOB CARR: It'll be on the agenda.

TONY JONES: A new policy? Will there be a new policy?

BOB CARR: No, I deprecate that talk. Working with Indonesia to obtain solutions to a common problem, that of people smuggling.

TONY JONES: Bob Carr, we're out of time. We thank you very much on what is a - well, you're an historian. This is an historical night. Thank you very much for being here.

BOB CARR: My pleasure.

TONY JONES, PRESENTER: One of the loudest voices over recent days calling for Labor to settle its toxic leadership dispute was one of its most successful politicians, former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie. He's been in the corridors of Parliament House in Canberra today. Tonight he's back in Brisbane from where he joined us just a short time ago.

Peter Beattie, thanks for joining us.

PETER BEATTIE, FORMER QLD PREMIER: Thanks for having me.

TONY JONES: Can Kevin Rudd really save Labor from electoral oblivion?

PETER BEATTIE: Yes, he can. Even his worst enemies would accept that he's a good campaigner and he will demonstrate that and has demonstrated that across Australia. He will certainly do that in Queensland and I think you will see a significant improvement of the vote here and in other parts of Australia.

TONY JONES: I'll come to Queensland in more detail in a minute. But does he - being realistic about it, does he have any chance at all, in your opinion, of beating Tony Abbott nationally?

PETER BEATTIE: Yes, he does, but this is going to be one hell of a fight. There's no doubt that he's up against it, there's no doubt that the polls are bad, there's no doubt that he's gonna have to campaign in a way that he's never campaigned in his life before. This is going to be very, very tough. Can he do it? Yes. Will he do it? Well that will - only time will tell whether he will do it. He can do it. He's the only person who can do it.

TONY JONES: Yes, but given the openly expressed hatred of him by many cabinet ministers, now former cabinet ministers as a matter of fact 'cause so many of them are resigning, how on Earth is he gonna stitch Labor together and present some sort of unity?

PETER BEATTIE: I think because of the way Julia Gillard will handle herself. I thought it was very clever on her part today to say whoever lost should resign from the Parliament. I think she set a very high standard. I think that is the circuit-breaker. And I don't believe that those former ministers who have left subsequent to the ballot are the sort of people who will go around and get involved in acts of bastardry who will try to destabilise the Government. I think they've been loyal members of the cabinet. One of their arguments have been that the Rudd forces have been destabilisers and they've been the ones who've been the wreckers. Now, they can't turn around and do the same thing and have any credibility.

TONY JONES: But what makes you think they won't? I mean, they are Rudd haters. These are people who wanted to put a stake in his heart and bury him forever not so long ago and now they're gonna be on the sidelines watching him back in power.

PETER BEATTIE: Yes, but they're also members of the Labor Party and they know that the Labor Party is fighting this election, which in many senses could be about its immediate future. So I don't believe that those people - I know them - I don't believe that they're going to be wreckers. I think they will accept the result and I think the tone set by Julia Gillard, that tone is really one of leadership. She's leaving. It's one about moving on. I think she's clearing the decks for Kevin Rudd to have a full go. Kevin Rudd's put in this position. He's got the best chance now of winning this election. If he doesn't win the election then the responsibility goes entirely back to him.

PETER BEATTIE: Well, again, time will judge that. I think that a lot of people are very proud of the fact that we had our first female Prime Minister. A lot of people will not be happy about the way that she's leaving the scene. But one thing you'll know about Julia Gillard, she will do it with dignity, she'll do it in the interests of the Labor Party, she'll do it in the interests of the Labor government. And I think that will pave the way, if you like, for a reunification of the party, for a lot of those bitternesses that have existed and divisions to be put behind. The fact that Julia is in fact leaving the Parliament is a symbol of unity and I think that she should be congratulated for having the courage to do that.

TONY JONES: I've got to ask you this briefly: is she the first casualty of the gender wars that she started?

PETER BEATTIE: Oh, look, the truth about all these things - and I know this is a very divisive debate, but we saw this in Queensland with Anna Bligh. It is tough to be the first female Prime Minister of the country. It is tough to be the first female leader. And frankly, the fact that she's been there will make it easier for successive leaders to come, but I don't think anyone should underestimate being a female prime minister has been tougher than being a male prime minister. Some of the questions she was asked would never have been asked of a man. I know that, having been in a position at a state level, I'da never been asked those questions. So yes, she was treated differently and on many occasions was treated unfairly. But the fact of the matter is: she's been there. She's been our first prime minister, she's paved the way and it will be easier for future women to hold that office.

TONY JONES: OK, let's look ahead. What radical policy shifts could Kevin Rudd bring about on let's say the two key issues that are motivating a lot of Coalition angst at the moment: the carbon tax and asylum seekers?

PETER BEATTIE: Well I think there are a number of issues. I think there are four issues. One is asylum seekers and he'll need to spell out very clearly what his policy on that is. There's obviously the carbon tax, the mining tax - they're very similar - and reform of the Labor Party. They're the four issues which I think people will be looking for leadership on. Kevin, as I said before, is a very good campaigner. He'll have to spell out clearly what those issues are and he'll have to go to the Australian people and explain them, because frankly, if those policy areas which you've identified and the two I've added, if they're not dealt with in a very clear way, then the popularity that Kevin enjoys will fall really quickly because Kevin will find that Tony Abbott's not gonna let those issues go. I saw Tony Abbott make a speech today to the Mining Council. It was actually a very good speech. And he is honing in on these issues and he won't move away from them.

TONY JONES: OK, we'll start with the carbon tax. Could he simply get rid of the carbon tax by moving immediately to an emissions trading scheme?

PETER BEATTIE: Look, that's a matter for him, Tony. I'm not quite sure what his thinking will be. I think that he will need to demonstrate some difference. Now I know that this is largely been about personalities, the leadership issues; there have been some policy differences. He's got to spell out - I'm not gonna give him advice about it. He's gotta spell it out.

TONY JONES: No - I understand what you're saying. But, I mean - well, let's take the other key one that I mentioned earlier: could he actually steal Tony Abbott's thunder and use the Navy to start turning around asylum seeker boats?

PETER BEATTIE: Again, that's a matter for him, but one thing I think Kevin is quite capable of is not only coming up with good policy himself - and you've gotta remember that's Kevin's history. He's a policy wonk - that's his history. He likes policy. But frankly, if there is good policy by the Opposition, look, steal it. I mean, I don't see that there's ever a problem with that. We used to do that in Queensland. If there's a good idea, use it.

TONY JONES: Including - I mean, seriously including turning back the boats - you'd advise him to consider that?

PETER BEATTIE: Oh, look, I think that's a little bit more difficult for the Labor Party. But one thing is very clear about this, Tony: he has to spell out exactly what he's going to do. And this is a very sensitive issues. The people smugglers are clearly not only putting people's lives at risk, but the ABC the other day ran a story that you would've seen, a tape they had one of the people smugglers in Indonesia - these are not nice people. And when Australians see that, they want something done about it, and I think one of the first things they can do is actually get the Indonesian Government to play a constructive role. And if the police are in fact working hand-in-hand with the people smugglers, I would have thought that's a matter that the Prime Minister could deal with the President of Indonesia on, because the first thing we would expect the Indonesian Government to do is to clean up their own backyard and not help facilitate through the police these people smugglers and their operations.

TONY JONES: There's hints there of what you might advise Kevin Rudd to say when he goes to Jakarta next week, obviously.

PETER BEATTIE: Look, I think there's a clear position. There is nothing wrong with Australia saying to the President of Indonesia, "Hang on, hang on: if the police are facilitating people smugglers, then frankly the Indonesian Government has a responsibility to do something about it." If there is police being paid in Indonesia to help these operations, if there's corruption making people smuggling possible, then surely the President of Indonesia should do something about it.

TONY JONES: Alright. With the time we've got left, what about your own state? How much will Kevin Rudd's ascension change the political equation in Queensland?

PETER BEATTIE: It will be significant. You've gotta - if you look at the statistics - and let me just look at the research. Tony Abbott's reasonably popular here, but of course Kevin Rudd is extremely popular here. His difference will be very significant in Queensland. You have to remember that all the polls that I've seen - Newspoll in The Australian, the polls in the Australian Financial Review - all of those have indicated that on past polling Queensland would end up with one seat and that's Kevin's seat itself. He can turn that around. A lot of the people who have been terrified about losing their seats can feel a lot more secure now that Kevin's there. How many he can win remains to be seen, but he will make a very big difference in Queensland.

TONY JONES: I was thinking for Tony Abbott, there is a kind of a - a bit of a nightmare potentially developing in Queensland with the trio of Bob Katter, Clive Palmer and now Kevin Rudd. How much damage could those three potentially do to Tony Abbott's vote in Queensland?

PETER BEATTIE: Well, I've gotta say, Clive Palmer will certainly provide some entertainment during the campaign - there's no two ways about that. Look, Bob Katter has always been an independent and he will win his seat. I think this campaign will be very polarised. I think this will be either a Labor or Coalition vote. I don't think you're gonna have a lot of votes for either Clive Palmer's party or for Bob Katter's party. They won't do anywhere near as well as they think they will do. This will come down to the hustings, the battle between Rudd and Abbott and I think you'll see a lot of that fought out in Queensland. Now there is a competition, now there is a real contest.

TONY JONES: There's gonna be a honeymoon period most likely for Kevin Rudd. If, for example, he starts polling a lot better, does Tony Abbott's leadership come under pressure?

PETER BEATTIE: Oh, I don't think so. I think that that's too far gone for the Coalition. I think Tony Abbott will be their leader going into the next election. I mean, I could be mischievous and say of course, but I don't think that's a reality. He's well supported in his party. I don't see any likelihood of Tony Abbott being undermined or any leadership challenges to him. We now have got the two leaders for the next election. The issue is going to be - and this will be the real test: Kevin will have to spell out what he is going to do on the policy issues that you and I have talked about. He's gotta be very clear whether he's got any differences and they will be the core issues of the election campaign. Then of course the other more broader issues about education and the future for Australia. But if Kevin can spell out the four issues and his responses to them, then the campaign will be a very tough but closer campaign than it otherwise would have been. I come back to the point: Tony Abbott is still favourite. No-one should be under any illusions about that. Tony Abbott is still favourite, but the Labor Party's back in the game.

TONY JONES: Yeah, one final thing. Anthony Albanese has just been announced as the Deputy Leader. Obviously Wayne Swan has gone and gone as Treasurer as well. I mean, how easy will it be for Albanese to assume that mantel and how hard will it be to keep Wayne Swan's bitterness in check?

PETER BEATTIE: Look, Albanese's well regarded across all sections of the party. I think he was one of the people that the Gillard forces had enormous amount of regard for. I think he's the natural deputy. I think he's a unifying force. I think people have a huge regard for him and he's well respected. Look, Wayne Swan - I've known Wayne Swan since university days, of course he will be disappointed. There's no two ways about that. But the reality is: I do not believe that Wayne Swan will be disloyal to the party. I think Wayne Swan will get on with it. He accepts that he's had the great honour of being the Deputy Prime Minister. I think he will get on with it without being - he will not do to Kevin Rudd and his forces what they did to him. That will be the difference.

TONY JONES: Peter Beattie, we'll have to leave you there. Thank you very much for joining us from Brisbane tonight.