Is Christian Yelich on track to be a Hall of Famer? Let's break down where he's headed and what he'd still have to do

Technically, it's premature to ask 'Is Christian Yelich a Hall of Famer?' There is simply too much data left to gather, and we can all agree that if Yelich's career ended tomorrow (first of all, that would be bad!), he wouldn't have amassed enough to make the cut.

Christian Yelich scores from third in the first inning on a fielder's choice ground ball hit by Ryan Braun.(Photo: Gene J. Puskar, AP)

But is it possible that Yelich's remarkable year-and-a-half run with the Brewers has vaulted him on track to become a Hall of Famer? On Thursday, it was revealed that he garnered the most votes of any National Leaguplayer in the new "Starters Election" for the annual all-star game. He's having a second straight amazing year, batting .335 with 29 homers and a .427 on-base percentage at the halfway point

Take a look at some of the comparisons.

We'll use WAR as a baseline

"Wins above replacement" (WAR) isn't a perfect stat, attempting to encompass offensive and defensive contributions from a player relative to what a "replacement" player would do in his place. But it's a good tool to grab all the different elements and put a value on it, and if you look at Hall of Famers from past generations, they typically do have elite WAR values.

WAR is also a cumulative stat, so a player with a WAR of 100 (like Albert Pujols) has been both elite and around for a long time. But longevity frequently goes hand-in-hand with excellence -- after all, bad players don't spend 20 years in Major League Baseball. As a means of context, the highest career WARs belong to Babe Ruth (182.4), Walter Johnson (164.3), Cy Young (163.6), Barry Bonds (162.8) and Willie Mays (156.4). Seems legit, right? Outside of Bonds and other players connected to scandal (such as Roger Clemens at 139.2, Alex Rodriguez at 117.8 or Pete Rose at 79.7), the top WAR to an eligible player NOT in the Hall of Fame belongs to Curt Schilling (79.5).

To compare Yelich to other Hall-inducted outfielders, we'll look at how players performed through their age-27 season. That's not quite a fair comparison either; some players debuted earlier than others and began accumulating WAR at a younger age. But it gives some sense of standard (presuming Yelich accomplishes close to what these players did at age-28 or later). We're just talking outfielders since Hall of Famers are frequently compared based on their position -- a catcher isn't expected to produce the same haul offensively as a first baseman, for example.

So far, so good for Yelich, who has a WAR in excess of 30

Christian Yelich sends a screaming liner to right field that would go between two closed gated doors and out of play for a ground-rule double in the second inning against the Giants on Sunday.(Photo: Darren Yamashita, Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sport)

According to Baseball Reference, Yelich entered the week with a WAR of 30.9. That's very good. If he did nothing else, that would be close to a top-800 all-time baseball player. By the end of the year, it seems reasonable to imagine his number will be between 33 and 34, which would make him top-700 of all time. Again, that's if he did nothing else, and this is a cumulative measure.

Yelich took a huge leap forward and finished with a 7.6 WAR last year, and he's already up to 4.4 this year -- which surpasses the 4.2 of his entire 2017 season with the Marlins. He was at 5.4 the year before that. If Yelich plays another 10 years in the league -- lofty, sure, but fairly noncontroversial -- and manages a paltry 3 WAR per season, his number will be in the neighborhood of 63. That's fringe at best to make the Hall of Fame, even though it's better than a lot of Hall of Famers. Richie Ashburn and Billy Williams are just above 63. Lou Boudreau is right on. Jake Beckley is 61.6. Yogi Berra is 59.8. Mike Piazza is 59.6. Vlad Guerrero is 59.4, as is (future Hall of Famer) Ichiro Suzuki.

It's ultra-conservative to think he'd just be at 3 every year for the next 10 years. His lowest career single-season WAR in a full season: 3.6.

It stands to reason that at least the next few years will be well north of 3 WAR per season, which would be the extra in our 10-year scenario that lofts him into solid Hall of Fame ground.

Where does Yelich's crazy run rank among the Hall of Fame outfielders?

According to the JAWS system established by Jay Jaffe, who looks as closely at Hall of Fame candidacy as anyone, the seven-year peak (quite simply his best seven-year run) for an outfielder in the Hall of Fame averages to 41.6 WAR. If Yelich finishes the year at 7 WAR (conservative estimate), he'd have 33.5, and that includes a rookie year in which he only played 62 games, so that's probably not a fair "peak" seven years for him. If you average his last four years and extend it over the next two, he'd have a 39.8 seven-year peak. That's tantalizingly close to an average Hall of Fame outfielder. This suggests he'd probably need another "wow" season or two after 2019 to achieve Hall of Fame traction, though, since that average would be at the lower end. But if his 2020 or 2021 are like his 2018 and 2019, he's going to be on his way.

Looking at the last 10 outfielders inducted to the Hall through the traditional writers' process, their average WAR through age-27 season was 37.7 (and remember, we see Yelich conservatively around 33.5). We won't use Veterans Committee picks since they aren't typically using the same metrics.

If we go back to 1980 and look at all the outfielders since, the average is 35.4 -- and that list includes some impressive players like Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron and Al Kaline.

Ryan Braun, for what it's worth, was at 26.2 through his age-27 season.

We should note that many times, players with lengthy careers get credit for their longevity, and "peak" doesn't need to be as significant.

Recent inductee Vladimir Guerrero was at 36.3 after his age-27 season. Andre Dawson was at 34.2 and never had another 5 WAR season after turning 29, so he didn't need another run of crazy production to get inducted. Jim Rice was at 26.6. Those guys are all outfielders in the Hall of Fame with potentially comparable arcs to Yelich. Among recent retirees who are probably not going to make the Hall of Fame, Manny Ramirez was at 25.2 after his age-27 season. Kenny Lofton was 21.4, Sammy Sosa was 19.9 and Bobby Abreu was 24.3. Yelich would be well ahead of those guys.

The guys he'll be competing against matter, too

It's also helpful to know what Yelich's contemporaries are doing, largely because he stands to be on the ballot with those guys, and with voters (at the moment) limited to the number of selections they can make for the Hall of Fame, it's important to be comparably better.

Mike Trout -- a Hall of Fame lock -- has a 69 WAR and is only 27 years old. He's on another planet. Andrew McCutchen, probably a strong comparison for Yelich, was at 32.5, but injuries have limited his long-term effectiveness. Giancarlo Stanton was at 35.7. Mookie Betts is at 38.3 and he's only 26. Jason Heyward was at 31.1 before seeing his output decrease (his number is also elevated by elite defense). Curtis Granderson has had a lengthy, productive career but was at just 16.9 through his age-27 season.

Obviously, it's not all about WAR

WAR is a helpful measure, but obviously it's not the only thing voters look at when determining a Hall of Fame candidacy. Yelich is a career .300 hitter at this point; it stands to reason he won't sustain that for another 10 seasons. His career OPS is .864 -- perfectly suitable, but not the stuff legends are made of, although the 2018 value of 1.000 and this year's 1.146 have been quite the boost. He'll reach 1,000 hits this year (he got number 999 Thursday) and maybe 150 home runs, which obviously leave plenty of room to get to some of the more hallowed career distinctions like 3,000 hits or 400-plus homers.

Going hand-in-hand with his numbers would be additives to his narrative. A World Series MVP or a classic moment would probably boost him here. The Gold Glove he won in 2014 also helps, since it historically validates his defense to a degree. If Yelich finishes this season at his current pace, with 58 homers and 34 stolen bases, it will be a wildly unprecedented achievement. Only two players have even cleared 45 homers and 30 stolen bases in the same season (Larry Walker in 1997 and Alfonso Soriano in 2006; granted, neither is a Hall of Famer).

In conclusion

Yelich probably needs at least one more MVP-caliber season in addition to 2018 and 2019 to truly put himself on the comfortable track to become a Hall of Famer, plus a solid-if-unspectacular 7-8 years after that. If he achieves that much, plus perhaps spices up his narrative with a big moment or two, he's going to be in strong consideration.