Military

Further Reading

DATE=8/17/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=WAR IN DAGESTAN
NUMBER=5-44077
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Russia is again at war in the Caucasus and
predicting victory over the rebels challenging
Moscow's authority. Whether they will hold out as
stubbornly in Dagestan as they did in Chechnya remains
to be seen. Correspondent Ed Warner provides
contrasting views on the outlook for the war in this
latest Russian attempt to keep its territory together.
TEXT: From Moscow's point of view, it cannot afford
to lose the Caucasus, the pathway to Caspian Sea oil
and to Russian influence in the Middle East and
Central Asia. While Russia remains, it can block
efforts by other powers like Turkey and Iran to become
established in the Caucasus.
But the area is hard to control from Moscow. Chechnya
has slipped from its grasp, and now rebels in Dagestan
have declared their independence, provoking another
armed Russian intervention. Will it work better than
the failed effort in Chechnya, which is now
independent in everything but name?
International consultant Enders Wimbush, vice
president of International Strategy and Policy at
Hicks and Associates, foresees failure:
// WIMBUSH ACT //
I see Russia causing instability in the region
for the foreseeable future with these kinds of
panicky, petulant thrusts which cause a lot of
damage and a lot of bloodshed and only add to
the radicalization of the region. But
ultimately, Russia cannot control this region.
It does not have the forces to do it. It does
not have the strategic vision to do it, and it
certainly does not have the leadership to do it
at this point.
// END ACT //
The outbreak in Dagestan has coincided with yet
another change of government in Moscow.
The rebellion would challenge the resources of even a
skilled, stable leadership, says Columbia University
Professor of Political Science Robert Legvold. But
the current one in Moscow does not appear to be up to
the task.
That is a shame, says Professor Legvold, because
Dagestan does not pose as big a problem as Chechnya
did:
// LEGVOLD ACT //
It looks as though much of the public in
Dagestan is opposed to the rebels, which would
be very different from the situation in
Chechnya, where a large percentage of the
population supported the independence movement.
The question is whether the Russians, in dealing
with this problem, resort to a kind of brutality
that brings suffering to the population of
Dagestan and then turns the population against
them.
// END ACT //
A warlord from Chechnya, Shamil Basayev, has led the
rebellion in Dagestan, which is one of the poorest
regions of Russia -- with unemployment above 80-
percent in its impoverished mountain villages. In
their despair, people have turned to radical Islam,
which enforces a harsh rule and defies Moscow.
Moscow blames Islamist outsiders for stirring up
trouble in Dagestan and warns Muslim countries not to
get involved. There are accusations that terrorist
Osama Bin Laden has been supplying arms to the rebels
and may move to Dagestan himself.
This is not a foreign problem, responds political
analyst Nikolai Petrov of the Moscow Carnegie research
organization. He says this is the result of the
extreme weakness of the state in Russia -- Dagestan is
the weakest link.
The links are snapping, says Enders Wimbush:
// WIMBUSH ACT //
The unraveling started several-years ago, this
is just a continuation, perhaps an acceleration
of it. One looks at a Russia today which is
really four or five different Russias, with
different resource bases, different kinds of
political leadership. Moscow has very little
power 40-kilometers beyond its border to control
anything, even in the Russian regions. I think
what one is likely to see in the next four or
five-years is the emergence of very strong
Russian regions.
// END ACT //
His words are echoed in Moscow by Yegor Stroyev,
speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, who
proclaimed -- the breakup of Russia is knocking at the
door.
Professor Legvold cautions, not just yet. Despite the
inept, shaky leadership in Moscow, he doubts Dagestan
will start unraveling Russia:
// LEGVOLD ACT //
I think it is premature to see this as the
beginning of the end for Russia or even as the
beginning of a general trend toward separatist
movements. From the beginning, the situation in
the North Caucasus has been different, and even
within the North Caucasus, the problem of
Chechnya is very different from what is going on
in Dagestan or what might happen in Ingushetia.
It is far from clear that other important parts
of Russia have any desire to move in the same
direction as Chechnya or Basayev and his forces,
who are Chechens, after all.
// END ACT //
Professor Legvold and Enders Wimbush agree a political
solution is necessary for Dagestan, requiring
statesmanlike compromise on the part of a great power
that has shown no great aptitude for peaceful
negotiation. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RAE
17-Aug-1999 12:38 PM LOC (17-Aug-1999 1638 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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