A perfect storm is letting T-Mobile overtake Sprint, never look back

These two lines may never cross again

When Sprint finally put an end to its pursuit of T-Mobile last week, and subsequently fired long-time CEO Dan Hesse, the resulting stock market reaction exemplified the pileup of mistakes that the carrier has made. It also showed how Sprint now differs as an organization from that of its magenta competitor — to say nothing of the red and blue carrier variants far above it on the totem pole.

With T-Mobile's industry-changing moves set in motion years ago and finally bearing fruit today, coinciding nicely with Sprint's slow and painful collapse, it looks as though the nation's third and fourth-place carriers are about to swap positions — and I'd venture to say it's going to be a permanent switch.

Diverging paths

Long-running talks of Sprint planning to buy out its closest competitor, T-Mobile, have kept the two carriers in the same sentences and comparisons for a good year now. It has always been "there's AT&T and Verizon up here, then T-Mobile and Sprint down there," but following the official word from Sprint that it is ready to go at things alone, again, the reality is that Sprint may be in a league of its own — and not in a good way.

Looking at one metric for the success of a company, its stock price, it's interesting to see how T-Mobile and Sprint have moved together in near lockstep over the last year — but particularly the last six months. It's clear now after the deal is dead that this stock price correlation was uniquely tied to the deal itself rather than their true competitiveness as carriers, as the deal ending sent them in different directions.

The end result, factoring in the past week of losses after the deal was called off, is Sprint down over 30 percent in the last six months — 40 percent off its high of the period — while T-Mobile is down a mild five percent. Hardly the lockstep movement of the past year.

When you start to compare the four major U.S. carriers over the same time period, it becomes clear to me that T-Mobile is more on the trajectory of the big two above it than Sprint, which is decidedly headed below it.

Three carriers on the rise, and one on the decline — shown off in an even more dramatic fashion if we back up the stock prices of these four companies to the one year ago mark.

Bringing in the big and stable AT&T and Verizon should give us an idea if there were any external factors hitting the wireless industry as a whole. Looking at this chart, it's clear to see that it's not so much a two-and-two situation, but more of three-and-one. AT&T, Verizon and T-mobile are holding steady, while Sprint is falling off a cliff.

Get out of here, scary charts I don't understand

I know, I know, there's more to this equation than simply looking at stock price charts. But what's most interesting is that they tell the story so succinctly that you could try to explain in many different ways and come to the same conclusion.

AT&T and Verizon are slowly lumbering their way along, adding customers at a smooth clip with little change, while T-Mobile is playing a bit more volatile role as the "Uncarrier," offering up some questions about its long-term growth rate but seeing dramatic customer gains in the past year. But then there's Sprint, losing customers every year, lagging behind in network rollout and not doing a whole lot with its plan structure or prices to entice anyone to stay, let alone join, the network.

T-Mobile crossed the mark to 50 million subscribers as of last quarter, and the Uncarrier is poised to overtake Sprint in customers by the end of the year. At the rate of growth T-Mobile seems to be able to sustain, I certainly don't think that those lines will ever cross again so long as Sprint and T-Mobile are independent of one another.

The changes that we're seeing now in T-Mobile were put into motion years ago following the failed buyout by AT&T, and if Sprint at all intends to turn things around in the coming years itself, it has to start laying that groundwork now.

It's caught relatively flat-footed, though, and new CEO Marcelo Claure is simply hired from inside Sprint's own ranks — Claure was on the Sprint board, and his company Brightstar is owned by Sprint's parent SoftBank. That doesn't seem like the most positive move to make, when Sprint doesn't just need to stop this slide, it needs to be adding customers again at the rate of about 250,000 per quarter if it wants to stay ahead of T-Mobile.

Chances are that T-Mobile will become the third-largest carrier in the U.S. for the first time in its history this year, and I don't think that it'll be looking back at Sprint and feeling sorry one bit.

So Verizon, and AT&T don't matter (despite having better networks), and Motorola, HTC, LG, Sony, and others just simply don't exist because Samsung is soooooooo awesome and perfect, and flawless in every way......right. Dude, drugs are bad mmk?

Yep.. But he'll try to wiggle out of it, or flip it around and say it was tmobile trying to buy sprint... NoNexus guaranteed that sprint was going to buy tmobile... He is as annoying as Richard Yarnell is.... Actually, he's worse

I don't think your doppelganger cares about your sex life...at all. It's clearly the best way to make fun of your poor choice of screen names : p

Looking forward to Sprint's price cuts. If they can do a comparable plan to Tmobile's $30 plan for about $20 I'll be buying a Sprint sim for a test run. Google needs to get Hangouts on par with iOS's Hangouts app so I can call/text over WiFi again. RIP Groove IP.

Interesting way of analyzing the two. Personally I just left Sprint for T-Mobile and couldn't be happier.

Faster data speeds, great coverage in my area, and easy pricing. Just moved my girlfriend onto my plan from US Cellular. The free music streaming is a very nice perk that she has been very excited to use.

These people still don't understand that T-Mobile is running on fumes. They have to be bought out by someone. Sprint would have been the best option. It is not NoNexus simply loving Sprint, it is him realizing the obvious best choice for both companies.
T-Mobile cannot and will not sustain themselves on their current model while their parent company is trying to get rid of them.
Let me be clear: SOMEONE HAS TO BUY THEM.
Only now if Sprint doesn't it will be someone ridiculous like DISH or some company you've never heard of.
Have fun with that.

Like I said before, you never have anything relevant to say except crap like this. Why don't you tell us exactly what you think (about the article) with your own personal insight. Are you capable? I don't think so.

T-Mobile is in a better position than Sprint and Verizon. There is no sign that letting Sprint buy them would have improved the situation in any way. Look at the troubles Sprint is having. You would be correct if you were referring to Sprint however.

Tmo in a better position than VZW? Um...NOT. A merger between them would have given each other the spectrum, towers, coverage, and customers to compete over time. The only reason people are leaving Sprint is not because of prices, it the coverage. And if you tell me that the merger would NOT expand coverage...for both...there's no point talking to you.

I never had coverage problems with Sprint, nor pricing, nor phone selection issues, just network speed and reliability.... and that is why I left them for T-Mobile this year, after being a 15 year Sprint customer.

I'm with you, I had my issues with Sprint, but I've really been happy with them lately. I know we have data issues now and then, but I like the fact that no mater what I do it's unlimited and price is right.

Actually Sprint has emphasized they're going to focus on revamping plans first, with improving their network secondary. They are WAY behind the game. I was on Sprint for 7 years, the coverage was great, but the speeds simply sucked. Not to mention the inflexibility on phones inherent to CDMA.

As a Verizon customer, I also have carry a Sprint iPhone and Spark hotspot and I have been very happy with their service. Sprint's coverage is excellent and data speeds have generally been very good in upgraded markets, very close to Verizon. The silver lining at Sprint is the Spark network. Average speeds are generally much higher than Verizon and they have the spectrum depth to more than triple them, a capacity that none of the other carriers have.

Sprint had its issues with data speeds prior to upgrading their network, and they still have some in oversaturated areas if you only have a single band LTE phone. But Spark is the future which is really fast today, and once LTE Advanced/carrier aggregation features are turned on with supporting hardware, speeds will increase exponentially.

I am as well. Been with them over 10 years, and love the fact that I just have unlimited everything and don't have to think about it. I'm not much of a traveler, and coverage in New England, at least, has been pretty rock solid.

I've been with Sprint since 2007 and I've never had all the problems everyone talks about with coverage and data speeds. My personal Sprint phone has better 4G LTE coverage than my work phone on AT&T and that should tell you something, they must be doing something right with their network upgrades recently.

Yeah. It really depends on your area. Sprint sucks everywhere else. In my area, I don't care if the price is that cheap. I'm not going to pay for something that unreliable. Their cheap prices are not enough to improve their situation unfortunately.

Where do you live that service is so bad? Has your market not been upgraded? I travel all over the country with my Verizon phone (personal) and Sprint phone / hotspot (work) and service works fine, unless it's a market that has not been upgraded which are few and far between .

I live in N.Y & had Sprint for over 8yrs. Service was terrible. I switched to Verizon recently & at first I was shocked at how expensive the service was. The price is honestly worth it. Coming from Sprint & finally seeing how the 4G symbol looked was amazing, rarely or almost never saw it on Sprint. Sprint employees complained to me about how bad the service was & told me Verizon was a smart move when I went in to close my account. Sprint is done. Cheaper pricing & terrible service won't grow a company.

Then you must not live in NYC or the surrounding area. If I had never left the NE in 2011 to come here to the SE, I probably would still have Sprint. Sprint's service in NYC/NJ is tops!! Once you leave the populated areas like NYC and come somewhere like Charlotte NC, things change drastically in terms of QoS. I switched to T-Mo about a year ago and it's been pretty decent. Certain backwoods areas were still under Edge , but I've noticed the improvements that T has made and now those same Edge areas are now on 4G/LTE grade service.

I applaud Tmo for shaking up the industry....well, for themselves anyways. What have they done to persuade VZW and AT&T to lower prices and be competitive? Nothing. Not because they haven't tried but because VZW and AT&T see them as no threat any time soon and they won't till' they add umpteen more towers for coverage.

As far as Sprint goes, yeah, they made mistakes but that doesn't make them any less of a carrier than Tmo. Period. Right now, being on Tmo (just because of the hype) is like owning an iPhone IMHO. OMGZ!! GoTta bE On TmO'z..tHeY Da BomB! Bullshit. I'll take Sprint over Tmo anyday. Not just because I'm a Sprint lover but because I get great service where I'm at and I have NEVER had a problem with them whatsoever in the 13 I've been with them.

That is fine for you Gator but I struggled to load webpages and on T-Mobile I can stream HD. It wasn't a "hype" thing for me ... It is more of ... in my area ... I can now stream whereas on Sprint I couldn't... So all of us aren't there for the "hype" :).

You know what I'm talking about :) I get Spark just about everywhere I go where I live, and at my work. Tmo's coverage is lacking and in most places non-existent so Sprint is the most viable option for me. I'm not really trying to knock Tmo, just the people who bash Sprint because Tmo's coverage is better in their area for them. You know whom I'm talking about.

I agree with you. In fact, if Tmo had better coverage here about 2 years ago, I would have left because Sprint was in that "transition" stage and coverage was horrible. It took Sprint 3 months to get it straight but once it was up and running, my data and calls were much better. Since, LTE and Spark has hit and I couldn't be happier.

You guys realize the towers are unilateral. The coverage depends on the MHZ spectrum the company rents? Yes some towers may be put in places by specific carriers but all of them are able to place transmitters on them and rent spectrums... Just saying.

In my opinion, what really did them in was their 3G performance. A few years back they started upgrading their network, while doing so they 'detuned' their 3G. Their 3G were terrible and they stayed terrible. People became frustrated and started to look elsewhere, Blogs and users began talking and labeling Sprint 3G services as embarrassingly bad.

Then they started their series of mistakes, one of the first biggest once they slapped on a $10.00 fee to 3G users, iDen, committing to apple to buy way more iPhones than they could sell. I really think the T mobile deal was more about trying to distract people from Sprint's troubles than competitive move.

I left Sprint about a month ago. Went to AT&T. T-Mobile isn't really an option here. I pay a little more for AT&T and I don't have unlimited data but the data I do have seems to so far just work and work fast. Sprint LTE was ok when it worked. But there was just to many times it would be as bad as dial up. Most of the time I didn't have very good signal at all inside anywhere. Also if there was a large gathering of people you just might as well not use your phone. Sprint needs to also have their resellers update their stores and keep them clean. The resellers(only corporate store is about an hour away) in this area for Sprint are almost embarrassing to refer someone too.

They are still looking to be bought...for the right price. It's in a few articles.

SB dropped the buyout because it's two fold. 1: They had major hurdles to go through with the FCC that would tie them up for a few years and 2: Since it would be tied up for years, both carries would have been barred from attending the spectrum auction next year and supposedly, it's a huge sale.

Yep, that 600 MHz spectrum auction is going to be extremely cut-throat. All four wireless carriers will be bidding hard, and that is discounting any wildcards like Dish, Comcast, or the like stirring things up and trying to grab a piece of the wireless pie. It will be very interesting to watch, that's for sure.

I also was with Sprint for awhile and left to T-Mobile about a year ago or so now ... Couldn't be happier. I am able to stream anything I want .. when I want. On Sprint (at least for my area) I would struggle to load webpages.

You seriously think a new CEO is going to fix coverage issues? Sprint got a plan and they are slowly but surely getting there just not fast enough for my liking. No CEO is going to speed up the process.

You never know. T-Mobile was pretty bad before John Legere. He came out and said he was going to change things and focus on the network .. And he has done that. The old Sprint CEO didn't seem very worried about the network rollout as it wasn't aggressive enough. Most resources should of went to that ... better network ... more customers.

Actually, the CEO could greatly improve the way the company works. The CEO is, or should be, the spearhead of anything the company does. They give inspiration, directly or indirectly, to every member of the organization.

IF, and that's a big if, the new CEO for Sprint quickly earns the trust of the company's employees, gives them a solid purpose to want to push themselves, and a firm direction and end-goal, then there is no reason that things won't turn around. It will take a pretty long while, but that is going to be the first step.

T-Mobile was and had always been the underdog and they have clawed and climbed their way to the position they are currently in and I am excited for them. If I wasn't grandfathered into all the of the shit that I am on VZW I would totally go with T-Mobile. I have a prepaid account with them and there service is well in the entire state. I travel and I agree that it is not good everywhere but I will give them my money so that they can make it better. I also love that they are a GSM network and are not strict about what I can do with my service.

Yes! I hate CDMA, especially sprint who blocked use of sim cards in lte phones. Gsm is where it's at. Att and tmobile! Tmobile coverage still isn't that good but once they get lte In South Texas I might switch or at least get a tablet from them.

I was a T-Mobile customer for about a year and I was disappointed. The data coverage sucks in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (unless you're in the major cities). I switched back to Verizon and I'll never have to complain about the lack of data again.

T-Mobile has been unbelievably great since I switched 2 weeks ago. I get LTE everywhere and the 3g is the fastest I've ever used but I'm hardly ever in it. The 4g coverage in the Cleveland,OH area is huge

In Puerto Rico is a different story. Sprint speeds and coverage is the second best after AT&T in the island. Tmobile coverage is good outside but inside buildings is terrible. While AT&T phones show LTE, Sprint usually 3g, Tmobile devices are left without service.

T-Mobile is like that everywhere. It'll change once they start taking advantage of the 700MHz spectrum that they own, but that'll be a while. It's unfortunate, because I work in hospitals, which are murder on cell signals. AT&T is the only carrier with sufficient building penetration to really work for me.

Am I the only one with horrible T-Mobile reception? I've gone through 4 phones the past 20 months in San Francisco and I get dropped calls, random pockets of 2g or no reception and atrocious download speeds.

I would love to switch to t-mobile. I think they've got an excellent value going on, I just wish they had more than one tower south of Sacramento, and for my commute to Stockton. It's nothing but frustration. It's even worse in Valley Springs where I only have 2G. Change that T-Mo and me and my OnePlus will switch in a heartbeat.

Speaking as a man who has been on every carrier, and has sold just about every carrier, I knew that the game was gonna change back in 2008 when T-Mobile made the bold move and used the 1700 band for their AWS. It essentially meant that you had to buy a new phone to take advantage of it, but then they showed you this wonderful T-Mobile G1. It was like nothing you have ever seen before. It didn't have iOS or Windows, but a fledgling Android OS with tons of potential. Back then T-Mobile was investing into an unknown future, willing to take risks, and being the carrier that was different.

The more things change, the more they stay the same, right?

People started flocking over to Android, which made the other big guys work from behind. Slowly the other carriers started putting out their Android devices, but no one was more invested than T-Mobile. And T-Mobile is doing those same things now.

The CEO before Hesse sh**ted on everything that made Sprint great and gave Hesse no chance. Between the Nextel purchase and the WiMax Decision, they shot themselves in both feet and couldn't walk themselves to the hospital. They had some great devices, but on a slow, congested 3G network, and a battery draining 4G WiMax network, they didn't sell as well as they should have (in fact, Sprint rivaled T-Mobile at one point in Android devices).

The key for both T-Mobile and Sprint now, in order to close the gap, is to figure out better ways to get coverage where the big boys are. If you look at a coverage map where the LTE and 3G/4G markets are, they have almost the exact same coverage.

There is room for 4 carriers in America and the game isn't over yet. But right now, T-Mobile has the best reason for you to invest your money into them.

You're spot on about the tenure of Dan's predecessor Gary Forsee but I can't blame him exclusively. The entire facility at Sprint's headquarters in Kansas has this mentally regressive disease. Their insistence on proving that critical management decisions are better arrived at through faith based means has resulted in a steady stream of financial disasters. How does a technology business succeed when it's management demonizes technology? This "Kansas" approach to business might work on the farm where weather is the main decision driver making faith and superstition the way its been done for centuries.

So, are you making an assumption based on the fact that their headquarters are in Kansas or is there evidence of this? I would hope that you aren't that ignorant to think it's just because they are in Kansas...

Hi schiznatch, my opinion is based on living in Kansas 15 years from 1975 to 1990 and working for Sprint until Dan took over. Kansas was an agricultural state that despised anything progressive or urban when I lived there and it will never change. They actually had laws preventing progress and restricting urban development. Have you ever flown over KS? The stewardess swiftly confiscates everyone's alcoholic drinks upon entering their airspace. They make it clear you're not welcome here. No, I don't like it. I do pity the common folk every time I read of its decline caused by their leader's regressive isolationist policies. On the other hand, hearing of Sprint's dreadful performance actually entertains me. I met some good people when I worked there that I do feel sorry for, however the boot licking back stabbers ruled over that roost by far and seeing them get what they deserve is sweet justice to me.

The phone would roam to another network .. such as AT&T ... Other carriers have support there right?

When you dial 911 it will use whatever is available. You could have an un-activated phone ..no plan .. no carrier .. fire it up and call 911 .. it WILL go through I promise you that. So I don't get your statement?

Very true -- But it should roam to AT&T if it was that bad. Either way though .. if you live in that area .. You shouldn't choose them if it is that bad. Since carriers are area dependent you should always grab the one who covers where you work and play :).

Same here. I love T-Mobile .. but I get service where I work and play .. and basically where I am at 99% of my time .. so the small times I may be inconvenienced is worth it...

If I traveled a ton .. or moved somewhere and it was tons of 2G .. I would switch in no time. There is no reason to be blindly loyal to a carrier .. If it is working sure cool .. if not .. switch. There are others that could meet your needs. :)

Ah....
These articles keep making my prediction look better and better...
You will be #1 in the Urban Areas by the end of 2015 Mr. T-Mobile... Of that, I have no doubt.
*One Down... Two To Go*
_______________________________________________________________________
T-Mobile... FOREVER.

Lke the article says:
"It's a Done Deal by the end of 14'... :-)
Urban Assault on AT&Ripoff and Verhighzon next... they can have the Farmers & Mountain Dwellers...T-Mo will take control of the cities most of us live in .

Everything you've written in this thread is a moot point.. and sounds quite childish.
I did not write the article... but the facts do not lie..and I agree,Sprint is doomed.. And T-Mobile is rising with a vengeance
_____________________________________
T-Mobile....FOREVER.

Honestly, in my opinion Sprint has got to be the best company I've had. I've tried AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile and there always seemed to be some sort of problem with their network for me. I've had like 6 years with Sprint now and my only complaint with them is that sometimes they charge my account with more than what I actually have to pay monthly - my plan, etc. Unlike the other companies, Sprint does a great job with having coverage wherever I go. Again, I guess it really depends on the person. To each his/her own. (x

I know this is just more anecdotal evidence on the pile, but last week my wife and I left Sprint for Verizon. My roommates liked my new G3 so much that they left Sprint for t-mobile and made the switch from iPhone to Android. I don't think any of us are looking back.

The ONLY POSITIVES going for Sprint are it's wholly owned subsidiaries: Virgin Mobile & Boost...I think they are actually PROFIT- making companies...BUT even THAT may change because of several important reasons : (1) Because the ENTIRE Sprint network uses CDMA, there is ( for all practical purposes) really no (B)ring (Y)our (O)wn (D)evice ; (2) The prices on other MVNOs are much better than VM & Boost; (3) EVERYTHING that is owned and/or affiliated with Sprint uses its much "troubled" network...
Not sure if this is even a possible solution... But...Sprint needs to convert its entire network to GSM thereby offering the majority of US customers ( who are now under AT&T and T-MOBILE combined) the chance to switch over...Yeah, I know: Fat chance Sprint will convert; and even less chance people will migrate to Sprint!

Beef, that's funny. Other than agriculture, bull s**t is the only other thing that ever comes out of KS. No, I don't like it. Ever hear the expression - let's get the heck out of Dodge? Since Dodge city is in Kansas, I consider that a good start.

Good one Gator, thanks for starting my day off with a smile. It's true that lot's of good things have come out of KS like the thousands of people who couldn't stand living there anymore. You do know the state line runs through K.C. splitting the city into two parts, 2/3 in MO and 1/3 in KS. Arrowhead stadium is in the MO part of K.C. however Sprint's HQ is in Overland Park, a suburb of K.C.'s wrong part.

Tmobile is doing the same thing Sprint did years ago and it bit Sprint in the long haul. Getting carriers is one thing making a profit is another. To make the argument with stock to me is very misleading.

I really want to see T-Mobile succeed and it's great they are gaining customers. I think they will continue to grow as long as their network continues to get faster and grow larger. That is the key factor for them. If Sprint stops losing customers in the future, then they will really need to have a network that competes with the size of Verizon. There is a giant pool of customers that will hopefully be siphoned off of the two larger companies some day. I would be more happy with AT&T and T-Mobile being the top two in the market. Once people can freely use their phone without restriction on any network they choose by signing up and inserting a sim card, then the carriers will really have to compete for the customers' money.

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{ I originally Posted This on TmoNews 5:15 AM 8/17/2014}
My Question is this , with all the complaints , The worst network ever & losing customers rapidly, plus the fact of being the lowest of the 4 carriers on the NYSE @ 5.69 and sinking ( everyone else 30.00 to 40.00 per share ) why pro long the Agony just find a buyer. I myself have nothing but dislike for sprint as well as all my friends and neighbors. They killed everything they touched especially Nextel. Now your going to slash prices on plans so your profit is 0 ? -
))) Time to take the orient express out of town fast ! - (((

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