August is Assad Falling

Predicting the future is an ultimately humbling experience. And you i have a pretty good record with prophetic month names.

May 2012 Nuclear Free Japan – we knew the last operating reactors would go out this month and they did, an easy call. And still quite worth mentioning.

Oct 2011 was No Restart of the North Anna reactors after the EarthQuake. This was both a forecast and a campaign goal. The newly formed “Not on Our Fault Line” group wanted these reactors closed for longer than Dominion did and we succeeded, i love month names i can touch.

March 2011 and Sept 2011 i tried to predict Qaddafi falling and got it wrong, tho he did fall in Oct 2011, so i was pretty close.

Feb 2011 nine days before his resignation i correctly predicted Mubarrak Falls within the month and peg the month name.

Hajib was told “Become Prime Minister or die”

Today i a predicting Syrian dictator Basher al-Assad will Fall by the end of the month. This means he will not have continue to have his current job as president. He could resign, be deposed or be killed – all qualify as Fall. [Assad has run twice for president 2000 and 2007 with no opponent, like his father before him.]

I am guessing i have something like 25% on getting this one right. His days are numbered certainly, and best would be if he cut some deal and skipped the country (i suggest Iran) – best because it could happen quickly and that would both minimize suffering and maximize my chances for being right. Assad is tenacious and despite huge popular support for regime change in the country, his brutal army continues to hold the population in check and prevent the rebels from overwhelming key military strong holds. And there are all manner of factors which make revolution seem inevitable and i want to write about some of them.

And as the NY Times points out, Habij did not defect alone, he moved 10 prominent families from his extended family out of the country before he fled with his wife and 4 children “scrambling through the desert” The defections were planned for months. This coordinated mass defection indicates a loss of loyalty from the Sunni political forces, which provide critical support to the Assad regime.

The rebels are asking the west for weapons, especially surface to air rocket launchers. The west is not formally giving them hardware (which would cause China and Russia to balk) but better weapons are starting to reach the resistance from unknown sources.

You likely dont remember that less than a month ago 4 top Assad aids were assassinated by rebels. And one week back the rebels blew up the third floor of the government radio and television studio. The studio which had been broadcasting the “we are in control” messages.

Also this last week Syria’s most popular astronaut defected to Turkey pledging loyalty to the opposition. In June, a Syrian Air Force pilot simply landed his fighter jet at an airport in Jordan.

And i want to get in line with this likely prediction, because i want to support people who are throwing off dictators everywhere.

This image of Frida Kalo is a fake – and lovely

The man in this photo is futurist and propagandist Vladimir Mayakovsky and artist Frita Kola’s head has be photoshoped in. Regardless, i love this image – the futurist looks ragged (tough work this guessing the future) and in this version of the story the artist is packing heat.

Addendum 8/8: The Christian Science Monitor gave there 5 reasons why Assad might fall soon, tho one of them has already been countered, he was on TV after this list went out, supporting Iran.