Sonny Gray Looks Reborn

Two years after the Athletics chose Sonny Gray 18th overall in the 2011 draft, the right-hander made his major league debut at the age of 23 and quickly became one of the game’s premier young hurlers. From 2013-15, a 491-inning span, Gray posted the majors’ 10th-lowest ERA (2.88), 11th-best groundball percentage (54.2) and 31st-ranked FIP (3.36) among starters. Gray was a front-end rotation piece at that point, but injury issues helped knock him off the rails in 2016. Gray rebounded a season later, but the Athletics elected to cash him and his remaining year and a half of control in at that July’s trade deadline.

The A’s sent Gray to the Yankees in what became a failed union between him and New York. In 2018 – Gray’s lone full season with the club – he produced abysmal results at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he ran up a 6.98 ERA as batters teed off on him for a .318/.406/.527 line. Gray’s struggles convinced the Yankees to pull him from their rotation during the summer and then leave him off their playoff roster in the fall.

It quickly became obvious in the offseason the Yankees would move on from Gray, who general manager Brian Cashman admitted needed a change of scenery. In January, three-plus months after Cashman telegraphed Gray’s exit, he traded the 29-year-old to the starter-starved Reds.

Before Gray ever threw a pitch in a Cincinnati uniform, the team signed him to a three-year, $30.5MM extension to prevent him from testing free agency during the upcoming winter. Well, two months into the season, that contract looks like a steal. Gray has come back with a vengeance as a member of the Reds, with whom he has posted a 3.54 ERA/2.99 FIP through 56 innings. Along the way, Gray has registered career bests in strikeout rate (10.29 per nine), groundball percentage (55.9), infield fly percentage (10.8) and contact rate (73.7 percent). Furthermore, even though Gray ranks near the bottom of the league in strike percentage for the second straight year, he has decreased his walk rate 2018 (from 3.94 to 3.54). He has also given up home runs on just 10.8 percent of fly balls, down from a combined 15.3 percent from 2016-18.

It’s probably fair to credit some of Gray’s revival to Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, who was also Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, though his impact is difficult to quantify. It seems to have helped that Gray has moved back to his high-spin four-seam fastball, a pitch the Yankees discouraged from throwing. Gray has gone to the pitch 37.7 percent of the time this year after throwing it at a 26.5 percent clip in 2018. But it’s Gray’s slider and sinker – offerings he has used at a combined 38.1 percent rate – that have been his most effective pitches this year, per Statcast. Hitters have mustered a horrid .102 weighted on-base average against Gray’s slider and a weak .260 mark off his sinker. All told, Gray’s expansive repertoire has limited batters to a .278 wOBA, which is right in line with his .272 xwOBA. Both of those figures are roughly 50-point improvements from the numbers Gray recorded in those categories during his forgettable 2018 as a Yankee.

Thanks in no small part to Gray’s resurgence, the Reds’ rotation has leapt from horrid to good in a year. Last season’s staff hung out at the bottom of the league’s pitching leaderboard, whereas Gray & Co. entered Tuesday fourth in ERA and fWAR. If not for the Reds’ disappointing offense, albeit one that’s throttling the Pirates at the moment, perhaps they’d be serious playoff contenders.

I wouldn’t go as far as to call them clueless, but Gray clearly wasn’t a fit in NY, especially in their stadium…

The stats spoke volumes of how well he pitched away from Yankee stadium, even with them “misusing” him.

The Yankees need their pitchers to pitch a certain way, so they’ll be able to avoid giving up 320ft. HR’s to that backporch they call right field..

It works for some pitchers, for others ito doesn’t..That’s why New York has to target a certain kind of pitcher..Clearly though, Sonny Gray wasn’t one of them..

Moving forward, Gray should do well in Cincy, even though Cincy’s home Park isn’t exactly pitcher friendly either..

Also, don’t discount the role his former Vandy coach plays in Gray’s turnaround. Pitchers thrive when they’re comfortable, and Gray has found comfort working back with Johnson.

Besides, few coaches know Gray as well as Johnson, so you’d have to imagine he would have been the best candidate to get him back in-line.

Moving forward, some of Cincy’s pitchers were due a resurgent season; however, Johnson looks like he’s doing a great job so far. Castillo, Gray, Roark, Castillo, and eventually Alex Wood will make a very solid top 4 when they’re all healthy…

No one’s been buying wins for decades. Wealth is being systematically redistributed in the major leagues and we have the equivalent of a salary cap now. The only question now is: which small market owners pocket their windfalls, and which invest it.

Let’s not forget that the yankees are in first place on the strength of their AAA players, so the timing of your whining about money truly sucks.

NYY had no idea what to do with pitcher like him. They tried to force him into the mold they know how to use and it nearly ruined him. Best thing to ever happen to him was to get out of that cesspool. Glad he’s able to be back to being the kind of pitcher that he needs to be.

Yes, because you know so much better than the first place cesspool. Thank you for your incredibly intelligent insights. You’re exactly why this site needs to turn off the comment section. Any idiot has a voice.

@SaberS I don’t know what Grays problems were in NY. It could have been the City “pressure”, it could have been how they asked him to pitch, or maybe it was some other intangible reason. Your ridiculous statement touting the Yankees record as evidence of that the problem couldn’t be with them is laughable.

i wouldnt say completely worthless. there probably is a high correlation between good pitchers and high win totals. that has to be worth something, even though its not worth much given all other factors that can affect a pitchers W-L total

They arent completely useless. They are not the end all of stats nor are they even good stats but they arent completely useless. Just because you say they are doesnt make it so.

Have you ever considered why good pitchers generally have a higher W-L record than bad pitchers? Its not completely arbitrary. A pitcher’s performance can definitely affect their W-L totals, even though a lot of things out of their control can affect their W-L totals as well.

In his 11 starts he’s gone past the 5th inning 4x and has 2 wins, I’m happy he’s finding success but he’s still not the pitcher the Yankees traded for. They were hoping he was going to ascend his status with the A’s and reach the potential he had shown in his first playoff stint and that seems like it won’t ever be the case but hopefully for him he can be a solid 3/4 starter I just don’t ever see him as a guy who goes more than 3x around the order with success.

The reason he’s pitching better is that he’s not in the American league East anymore. He did pitch well for the Yankees against inferior opponents, which is mainly the same type of teams in the Reds division.

I’m sorry but the AL East isn’t all that hard of a division to pitch in. If you’re pitching for the NYY, fully HALF of your division matchups come vs two of the worst teams in baseball: the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Any time the reds get any type of article written it’s always “mlbtr must be bored” or “another gem from mlbtr”. I get it. Everyone is loyal to their favorite team but yes, there are reds fans believe it or not. And the same Yankee fans bashing Gray now are probably the same ones that loved getting him in NY. Just give credit where it is due. The Reds made good moves and they are/will be better than expected. It happens some times. No other team gave Dietrich a chance but will the Reds get credit? Not on this site.

Why more players don’t come to small market teams with less pressure I’ll never know why (I actually do – money). Some players just perform better in the places like Cincy over the constant media blitz of NY. Also helps he’s from the area and is comfortable with Johnson. Makes total sense.

Also, I never said anything about setting lower expectations. Above all else, baseball is a mental game. And shocking as it may seem, sometimes MLB players come out of small towns and don’t perform as well in lager markets. It has nothing to do with with respecting ones self as a professional athlete. Sometimes it’s actually the smarter business decision. Ala Joey Votto who doesn’t like the media spotlight.

Fascinating posts of the experts about Sonny Gray and small market teams. So if a team’s ownership cannot buy its roster for wins, it’s not worth playing for – is that the gist? What happens when the preferential system for that changes to where all orgs are on a level playing field?

Surprised the experts did not point out the obvious the reduced taxation on income of small market players versus mega. Add in the reduced media pressure along with improved quality of life for families and there seems to be plenty to attract talent. But none of that has anything to do with Sonny Gray. DJ fixed Sonny’s approach and delivery. He’s allowed to use his devastating curve ball more, which sets up his other pitches, unlike the brilliant NYY org required.

Media pressure has a lot on people. This is why some players just don’t do well on large market teams. Also, Gray’s curve ball has been under league average this season. In fact he’s given up more runs off the curve ball than any other season he has thrown; it accounts for about 1.3 more runs per game he pitches. Gray is simply not a great pitcher. He’s a number 3 starter at best. Even at Oakland Coliseum -which is a pitcher’s ballpark- Gray’s numbers are similar to his career stats.