NY Giants at Dallas Week 1 Expert Pick & Odds

The Dallas Cowboys were 1-11 last year when starting quarterback Tony Romo was out injured. Well, Romo is likely going to miss the first half of the 2016 season but the Cowboys think they are in better shape this year under center as fourth-round rookie Dak Prescott makes his first start on Sunday against the New York Giants. The Cowboys are slight favorites on NFL odds.

Why Bet on New York?

Quarterback Eli Manning has 44 career touchdown passes against the Cowboys in the regular season, most all-time in NFL history. The Giants also have 44 wins in their series against Dallas, including postseason. Since 2014, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has 11 receiving touchdowns against NFC East opponents. That is the most by any NFL player against his division in that span. But in the last two games against Dallas, the Cowboys have managed to hold Beckham somewhat in check. He had just nine combined against Dallas last season. His dominant performance against the rest of the league is undeniable.

“He is one of those guys where you have to know where he is every time he breaks the huddle,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of Beckham, “so we understand the challenges he presents.”

After signing Olivier Vernon, after signing Damon Harrison, after signing Janoris Jenkins, after drafting Eli Apple 10th overall, after selecting Darian Thompson in the third round, after taking B.J. Goodson in the fourth, the Giants believe they have a better defense on paper than last year’s No. 32 unit.

There have been 17 times when a Giant rushed for at least 100 yards against Dallas. Big Blue is 13-4 in those games. The Giants have a .570 winning percentage in Kickoff Weekend games, good for fourth- best in the NFC.

It is the second year in a row, and the third time in four seasons, the Giants will play their opener in Dallas. In 2015, the teams split their season series for the first time since 2012. On Sept. 13, Romo threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten with seven seconds remaining to give Dallas a 27-26 victory. The Giants won the rematch, 27-20, on Oct. 25 in MetLife Stadium to end their five-game losing streak to Dallas

Why Bet on Dallas?

The Cowboys’ .673 winning percentage (37-18- 1) is the highest of any team in NFL history. The Cowboys are 8-0 against Giants in openers, including three of previous four seasons.

Dallas will attack the Giants with rookies at quarterback (Prescott) and running back (Ezekiel Elliott), a premier receiver in Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, who Coach Ben McAdoo said, “is one of the finest to ever play the tight end position.”

Dallas’ line, considered by many to be the NFL’s best, includes All-Pros in left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin and center Travis Frederick, as well as left guard La’el Collins and right tackle Doug Free. They will clear holes for Elliott, the fourth overall selection of this year’s NFL Draft, and Alfred Morris, and will protect Prescott, a fourth-round selection.

Prescott completed 78% of his passes for 454 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, and posted a QB rating of 137.8 in August. He added 53 yards on seven carries and two scores on the ground. But it was only exhibition, where defenses don’t reveal their full playbook and rarely blitz. Prescott and Elliott are first rookies to start opener at QB-RB for Cowboys since Roger Staubach and Calvin Hill in 1969.

Prescott is the leading passer in Mississippi State history, and Elliott the second-leading rusher at Ohio State. Elliott played in just one preseason game, running for 48 yards on seven attempts against a stingy Seattle defense.

My Expert Pick

Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.
Over is 20-8- 1 in the last 29 meetings.
Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Dallas.

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