The story of opinion polls

Election results boost opinion polls’ reputation

Unlike what happened recently in the United Kingdom’s referendum om membership of the European Union – the so-called Brexit ­– with this last Wednesday’s municipal elections, local polls got it as close to 'spot on' as can be.

And, in as much as some observers regarded the election also as a “Zexit” vote on President Jacob Zuma – as we report elsewhere – all signs are there that indeed the results will mean the end of the road for Mr Zuma.

But how close did the final polls before the voting started come to predicting the result.

Firstly, in terms of voter turnout the prediction by the final Ipsos poll on 1 August, was that we will have a repeat of the 2011 figure of 57,6%. The final turnout was 58.58%

Secondly, as far as the total support for political parties is concerned, and compared to the results of the previous election, the picture looks as follows :

Predicted Actual result 2014 General election

ANC 54% 53.91% 62.15%

DA 24.08% 26.89% 22.23%

IFP 3.56% 4.25% 2.4%

EFF 8% 8.2% 6.35%

COPE 1% 0.44% 0.67%

ACDP 1% 0.42% 0.57%

FF+ 1% 0.77% 0.9%

Other 2% 5.03%

General facts about the election:

26 333 353 – Registered voters

177 000 – Election officials trained

153 000 – Ballot boxes

133 000 – Voting booths

63 654 – Candidates (18% more than 2011)

22 612 – Voting stations

· 204 – Parties contesting elections (68% more than 2011)

75 – Voter turnout percentage for 2011 municipal elections

How it played out in the provinces

We next take a look at the picture of the seven biggest capturers of support in each of the nine provinces, excluding the total of independent candidates elected nationally: