RF's Financial News

Sunday, October 25, 2015

It’s been almost 14 years since Jim Mora (at an Indianapolis Colts press
conference) uttered those words.They
had just lost a terrible game, some reporter asked about their ‘playoff’
chances.I thought it appropriate that
after such an ‘unexplainable’ week in the markets – that I ask about all of the
employee ‘layoffs’.Obviously, after a
certain point the math no longer works on the: ‘borrow money to buy-back stock’
shenanigans.Just this week it appears
that corporations figured that out as well, as they started cutting people (in
earnest) to improve their bottom lines.A
few of the layoffs that were announced are: 3M for 1,5000, Advanced Micro
Devices for 500, BioGen for 1,000, Caterpillar for 5,000, Chesapeake Energy for
1,000, Chevron for 7,000, ConAgra Foods for 1,500, Credit Suisse for 3,400,
Disney for 300, FMC for 1,000, Hewlett Packard for 30,000, Lockheed Martin for 250,
Monsanto for 2,500, Microsoft for 1,000, Perrigo for 1,000, SunEdison for
1,200, Twitter for 325, Wal-Mart for 450, Weatherford for 3,000 and Whole Foods
for 1,500.

These same corporations are using the ‘proposed’ savings from these
layoffs to continue to buy-back their own stock.I think this practice is dangerous.For starters, if a company’s sales are not
increasing – then chances are the buy-backs won’t work either. Secondly, it’s possible that the buy-backs won’t
reduce the overall share count due to the new shares being created and used as
compensation to the executives.Finally,
with increased layoffs come declines in retail sales.And something that SF pointed out, the
average FICO credit score for loans originating in September is at its lowest
level in at least 4 years. That means
we’re combining bad credit, with lower lending standards, with retail sales and
transportation declines – yielding a recipe for a fairly sick economy.

Ms. Yellen, what do you get when you put the following together:

-32 nation’s Central banks are cutting their own interest
rates.

-China’s GDP is expanding by 6.9% yet they are devaluing
their currency, reducing their imports by 20.4%, and jailing people for talking
negatively about stocks.

-The oil industry rig count is down 1,001 rigs over last
year. The ripple effect comes from all
of the banks and loans associated with these (now) non-performing rigs.

-Caterpillar has seen its global sales fall for 3 straight
years, and in their latest report not a single area of the globe was positive.

-Denmark’s negative interest rates have pushed real estate
to a point that rents are now up 60%.

-Obamacare costs (and premiums) are increasing by
double-digits.

-European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi
signaled that more stimulus is on the way, and suggested negative interest
rates.

-The Bank of Japan is ramping up its largest
asset-purchase program (including buying into their own stock market).

-England’s interest rates are at record lows.

-And not to be outdone, China’s central bank announced
another rate cut.

Ms. Yellen, it’s YOU against the rest of the world right now. As soon as you announced the end of QE3 and
began setting rate hike expectations – the U.S. dollar started to rally.But what comes with a higher U.S. dollar is
increased difficulty selling U.S. goods and services overseas.In this case, a competitive environment means
that you need to DEVALUE your currency to make the products you are trying to
export more attractive. It’s a ‘Race to
the Bottom’.Devaluing creates inflation, and that is exactly
what you want.

Therefore, with China’s interest rate cuts, Draghi’s radical
announcement of negative interest rates, combined with Japan’s central bank
actually buying stock market securities – what is becoming a higher probability
is that you need to choose your poison: QE4 or negative rates.FYI – in 2001 the Colts did NOT make the
playoffs.Let’s try and not make the
same mistake with our economy.

The Market:

This week has certainly been one for the history books. I haven't seen this level of lunacy in the
markets since the late 90's, and since the housing run-up in 2006. I
remember in late 1999 when stocks were gaining 200 points in a day.It was a ‘new paradigm’.Nothing mattered until the NASDAQ lost 60% of
its value virtually overnight.More than
100 companies that had stock prices at $100+ per share went belly-up.This melt-up is even worse because every COUNTRY
is racing each other to the bottom. Recorded
history has never seen zero or negative interest rates, and words like ‘new
paradigm’ are being used again.

Just last week some very smart people were calling for a market crash by
the end of 2015:

-Gerald Celente of Trends Journal and Bo Polny said on Oct14th:
“Heading into November cycles suggest a
massive crash taking us down as much as 70% is possible.”

-Graeme Irvine suggested:
“For better or worse, there is a massive sea change underway in
global politics. An unprepared voting
public is desperate, disillusioned, and mostly unaware of the cause of the
decline in their lifestyle. Stay long
physical gold and silver. Globally we seem, to have run out of road and talent.”

-Nomura's Bob Janjuah remarked: “I did
not expect such a strong upside move in response to such bad data! I
would not be surprised to see attempts to recapture the highs of the year if
the 2020 level holds. And a weekly close
in the S&P below 1970 would put 1820 and the low-1700’s back on the radar.”

Every tick of this market is now being managed by the Central banksters.
I know it sounds James Bond’ish, but on
a daily basis I’m seeing "Unidentified" accounts buying tens of
millions of index futures JUST when a market is starting to sag.

Right now we have a ton of fund managers ‘chasing returns’ because they
need their year-end bonuses, and have terrible performance year-to-date.We have Central banksters who know that their
economies are on the ropes.This is a
bad earnings season, with most big banks missing both their top and bottom
lines.One common theme (however) is a
lower forecast. Some forecasts have been
lowered based on the dollar and world trade, others have been on contracting
sales growth. It’s the sales (top-line)
story that’s important to me because it is where the ‘rubber meets the
road’.With today’s accounting
practices, bottom lines can become distorted.For me, I would always rather see top-line growth in revenue, even if
bottom line profits shrink.Share buy-backs,
lowered forecasts, a weak job market, and a strong dollar (disinflationary)
environment – are all reasons that our FED will NOT be raising rates any time
soon.

I’m watching the Russell (RUT) Small-Cap Index.Currently it has been unable to rise above
the 1180 area, and this tells me that the general market order flow is not really
buying into this rally – yet.The
Russell has been in a bear market since July, and we have not had any higher
highs.Getting above 1180 on good volume
is key to proving that money is flowing back into the market as a whole. If the Russell has problems moving higher and
revisits the 1140 area, then I think we could see selling pressure across all
of the other indices.

I am still leaning toward this rally ‘petering out’ and sliding
downhill. I know that means doing battle
with the strongest time of the year, fund managers that are desperate for
returns, and Central banksters that want things to go up. I get all that. But I think they lack the fuel to keep it
going.Time (obviously) will tell.

So on one side of the ledger we have: (a) funds are down for the year
and desperate, (b) we're entering the strongest period of the year, (c) we've
had a 10% correction, (d) the technicals have improved, and (e) rate hikes are
now a myth – unless the FED decides to crash the market.On the other side of the ledger we have: (a)
the real economy is in the toilet, (b) the world economy is in recession, (c) zero
rates have perverted everything, (d) debt has increased dramatically, (e) earnings
are lousy, (f) world currency wars are raging, (g) over a hundred million are NOT
in the labor force, (h) record numbers are on welfare, and (i) top-line revenue
misses have become the norm.

Of course this rally is based on easy money, not strong earnings or a
strong economy. Remember correlation is
NOT causation. The market is not a
measure of the economy, nor is the market a measure of the business
fundamentals. We are in a midst of
declining revenue and sales forecasts, yet we are in the middle of a stock
market rally.This is a FED-induced
rally.Don’t fight the Fed.But don’t get fooled into believing it is
anything other than what it is. People
get hurt when bubbles burst, but get destroyed when they don’t know WHY or HOW
the bubbles were created.

TIPS:

RUT 1165: If we can break
above 1180 and close above it, it might signal the end of the bear market that
has been with us since June. We could have
a FED-fueled rally into year-end.Not a
Santa Claus rally, but rather a FED rally.If the Fed starts talking or hinting at easy money policies – we could
move higher.If they actually launch
another easy money program – we could rocket higher.

Now, if the FED actually launches an easy money program – look at the
precious metals and the miners.The bulk
of them are so beaten down, that even if they went out of business – the most
you could lose is $2 or $3.AUY is $2.52,
GFI is $2.89, EGO is $4.09, and IAG is $2.11. But the most attractive
part of the mining space is that they have options.With their stocks being so inexpensive, you
can buy a 1 year + 3 month option on many of these stocks for pennies.Take IAG for example: the January 2017 $1.50
call options are going for around $0.85. That means you have the right to buy IAG for $1.50/share
all the way out to the 3rd Friday of January 2017. If our FED introduces a program to devalue the
dollar – then silver is back up to $25/ounce and IAG is back to $5.

I’m still light – but buying more and more of the miners and FFMGF:

-AG – BOUGHT Stock @ $3.58 / and Jan, 2018 $2 Calls @
$2.30

-AUY – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.50 / and Jan, 2017 $2 Calls @
$0.90

-EGO – BOUGHT Stock @ $4.00 / and Jan, 2017 $3.50 Calls @
$1.10

-GFI – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.80 / and Jan, 2017 $2.50 Calls @
$0.90

-IAG – BOUGHT Stock @ $2 / and Jan, 2017 $1.50 Calls @
$0.85

-FFMGF – BOUGHT Stock @ $0.33

-SPX:

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1800 / 1805 to 2050 / 2055,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2070 / 2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1880 / 1885 to 2120 / 2125,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1860 / 1865 to 2090 / 2095,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1780 / 1785 to 2070 /
2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2085 / 2090.

To
follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com
to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please
be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed
thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly
economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author,
R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free
subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>
.

Please
write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to
inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be
reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference
<rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If
you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts -
please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If
you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel
free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Views
expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be
construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and
is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other
firms or associations. Mr.
Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information
that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or
entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any
alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied
by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of
future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end
of each article.

Note:
Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents
only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER
VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE
INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO
THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND
IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY
TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative
investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a
substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund
and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts;
the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean
lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no
secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and
none is expected to develop.

All
material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to
its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior
notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any
funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

Ms. Yellen, if you’re asking me to invest in companies that are NOT
growing, but are capable of borrowing ‘free money’ just to buy back their own stock
– sorry, I didn't learn that one in
Economics 101.

But hey, it’s all just one big ponzi scheme.Remember the 80's and Crazy Eddie?A string of electronics stores called
"Crazy Eddie's" – specialized in selling low priced consumer
electronics. One of the ploys ‘Crazy Eddie’
(Eddy Antar) used to keep his store expansion moving was to request a loan from
a bank to open more stores.He would then
set up a walk through with the bankers at one of his stores. The day before the walk through, he would shut
down the other stores in the area, and move most of their entire stock of
merchandise into the store that the bankers would be viewing.

On the day of the walk through, the bankers would be amazed at the sheer
volume of merchandise – piled to the ceilings.The bankers were then invited back in a couple of days to see the amount
that was sold.And sure enough, most of
the goods were gone.Eddy would then say:
“See, we sold all of that in just 3 days!" In reality, Eddy had the employees
truck all the stuff back to the other stores where it came from.Eddy was managing the appearance of ‘strength’,
when in fact he was using loans to stay afloat. Ms. Yellen, doesn’t this
sound familiar to what our corporations are doing today?

But Ms. Yellen, unlike all of your bankster friends, Crazy Eddie went to
jail. I ask you: if retail sales aren’t growing and inventory is increasing,
if the 3rd Quarter GDP estimate is being reduced again, and if Wal-Mart can’t
make money – you’d have to agree that this isn’t just China slowing down.The whole world is slowing, and in many ways
– “Our Prices are Insane.”

The Market:

The definition of money is:

1.It must be durable (which is why we don't use wheat, corn
or rice).

2.It must be divisible (which is why we don't use artwork).

3.It must be convenient (which is why we don't use lead or
copper).

4.It must be consistent (which is why we don't use real
estate).

5.It must possess value in itself (which is why we don't
use paper).

6.It must be limited in quantity (which is why we don't use
aluminum or iron).

7.And, it should have a long history of acceptance (which is
why we don't use molybdenum or rhodium).

Only gold and silver fit all seven characteristics.Bitcoin / Bitgold are wonderful (and I
personally love the idea of ‘crypto currency’), but unfortunately our government
can disable it in a heartbeat by pulling the plug on the Internet.

If I were to switch gears from giving investment advice, to giving survival
advice – I would advise everyone to have some physical gold (2 coins), silver
(20 coins) and $2,000 in cash on hand for emergencies.I think silver at $17/oz. has a date with
$70/oz., and gold at $1,200/oz. has a date with $3,000/oz.

The best denominations to own are the U.S. Gold & Silver Eagles, and
the Canadian Maple Leaf. These are
universally accepted as a great store of value. Remember the movie ‘Trading Places’, where Dan
Akroyd goes from being a highly paid commodity trader to a street-wise derelict.
In one scene, Dan goes into a pawnshop trying
to get money for his Rochefoucauld watch.The pawnshop owner offers him $50.Dan responds: “This is the thinnest, lightest, waterproof watch in the
world.It retails for $7,000, and tells
time in Monte Carlo, Rome, London, Paris, New York, and Beverly Hills.”To which the pawnie says: “In Philadelphia,
it's worth 50 bucks".Dan takes
the money. Remember, the key to currency is owning what everyone ELSE
views as valuable.

-In terms of allocation, 70% of the amount of money you
allocate for metals should be in gold, with the remainder in silver.

-The most traded silver product on earth is the Silver
Eagle, and is guaranteed to contain one troy ounce of 99.9% pure silver. If something totally wicked happens and you
need to use your silver for food – the Silver Eagle will be the ‘go to’ coin.

-In terms of storage, it is a mixed problem. You want to store your metal where you can get
it – in case of an emergency. Metal that
you can’t retrieve – is metal that you can’t use. One of the very best remote repositories is: http://www.dakotadepository.com. It is insured, offers segregated accounts,
and is extremely secure.

-If you like the idea of storing your metal in your home,
then a good ($2k) safe should be on your shopping list.

-I’m not against buying the GLD (which is the ETF for gold),
but know that you are NOT buying gold – you’re just buying a digital proxy for
gold.

-Instead of GLD, consider the CEF. The CEF is a
closed end fund that is 60% gold and 40% silver. The difference is that
they actually have the audited gold and silver in their Canadian vaults.

-Also consider PSLV – the Sprott Silver Trust. This
Trust was created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in
physical silver bullion. Its purpose is
to provide a secure, convenient and exchange-traded investment alternative for those
who wish to hold physical silver without the inconvenience.

Until last week, an
incredible $70 Billion had fled away from the stock market. But with this run-up, last week saw a $3
Billion in-flow back into equities. But
we are in that odd situation where:

-There is record
‘Put’ buying as protection against a crash,

-Gold is being
bought,

-And silver is in
such demand that there is virtually no supply.

The economic numbers are showing
us rather horrifying data, earnings are disappointing, and yet the market
continues to rise.The FED is in: ‘keep
the market up at any cost or the world blows up’ mode. They have already
pushed this market higher and longer than I thought possible, and even in the
most bullish scenarios the market’s latest upside move is overdone. If nothing else, a pause should be in the
cards. After letting the market catch its breath, I would not be
surprised to see one more leg higher – preaching Christmas sales.

-It has moved
from $3.58 (2 weeks ago) to currently $4.06/share. I’ll go on record as saying that you can
always purchase the stock. Another way
to play it is by using the January 2018 call options.

-Given the stock
has moved in price, I would recommend the $3 – January 2018 call options
currently selling for $2.30. By buying
45 contracts you are spending about $10,000 on this trade. Use your own personal preference to adjust
your purchase size – for example: buying 10 contracts costs $2,500.

-As silver/AG
rises, and AG hits $5+/share, our $10K in options will be worth $18k. We will then sell our $3 call options, and
use the proceeds to buy option contracts at the $5 strike price. By continually maintaining a closer ‘to the
money’ strike price – our gains will multiply much faster.

-As silver/AG continues
to rise, and AG hits $10+/share, our $5 contracts will be worth $53k. We will then sell our $5 contracts, and use
the proceeds to buy contracts at the January 2018 $10 strike.

-As silver/AG continues
to rise, and AG hits $15+/share, those $10 contracts are now worth
$132,000. Sell those $10 options, and use
the proceeds to buy contracts at the January 2018 $15 strike.

-And finally as
silver continues to rise, and AG hits $20+/share, you will have made $250k on a
$10k investment. You could even roll it
out again, and have $500k when AG makes it to $25+/share.

So the only real question
is: ‘Can AG go from $4.06 to $20 in less than 2.4 years?’The miners did similar things in the past,
and there's even more reason for them to blast off this time if silver
manipulation ends. But honestly, if AG just goes from $4.06 to $6 you
will still make a great return on your money.

I’m still light – but buying more and more AG and FFMGF:

-AG – BOUGHT Stock @ $3.58 – currently $4.06

oBOUGHT – Jan, 2018 $2 Calls @ $2.30 – currently $2.78

-FFMGF – BOUGHT Stock @ $0.33 – currently $0.37

-SPX:

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1800 / 1805 to 2050 / 2055,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2070 / 2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1880 / 1885 to 2120 / 2125,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1860 / 1865 to 2090 / 2095,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1780 / 1785 to 2070 /
2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2085 / 2090.

To
follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com
to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please
be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed
thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly
economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author,
R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free
subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>
.

Please
write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com>
to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be
reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference
<rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If
you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts -
please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If
you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel
free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Views
expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be
construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and
is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other
firms or associations. Mr.
Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information
that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or
entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any
alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied
by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of
future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end
of each article.

Note:
Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents
only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER
VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE
INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT
TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES,
AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN
ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative
investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a
substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund
and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts;
the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could
mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no
secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none
is expected to develop.

All
material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to
its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior
notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any
funds cited above.

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