Elon poll shows tight presidential race in NC

Chris Lavender/Times-News

Monday

Oct 29, 2012 at 12:01 AMOct 29, 2012 at 12:35 PM

The latest Elon University Poll released on Monday showed that likely North Carolina voters are split in their support of President Barack Obama’s and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns.

The poll’s findings indicated a tightening of the race in North Carolina since late August, when the Elon University Poll found Romney with a lead of 4 percentage points.

According to a telephone survey conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 26, 45 percent of likely North Carolina voters said they have voted or planned to vote for Obama, while 45 percent said they have voted or planned to vote for Romney. About 5 percent of those who participated in the Elon University Poll said they were undecided.

The poll also showed that in the state’s gubernatorial race, Republican Pat McCrory is supported by 52 percent of likely voters, while Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is supported by 38 percent of likely voters. Eight percent of those polled said they didn’t know who they planned to support.

The telephone survey consisted of a random sample of 1,238 likely voters, which included those who had already voted absentee or one-stop early voting. The poll’s margin of error is 2.79 percent. Both landlines and cell phones were included in the sample.

Of those polled, more respondents said they believed Obama was better able to handle issues like national security, health care, foreign relations and immigration, and more said they believed Obama has a clearer plan to address the country’s problems, is honest and trustworthy, and shares their values more closely.

Romney outperformed Obama in the area of the economy in the poll results. Fifty-two percent said they believed Romney would do a better job of handling the economy, compared to 42 percent for Obama.

Obama polled stronger among those who have voted early. The poll found Obama leading Romney by a margin of 55 percent to 37 percent in early voting. Among those who have not already voted, Romney holds an advantage over Obama of 48 percent to 43 percent.

The race is currently a statistical tie with 52 percent of likely voters saying they believe the country is on the wrong track and 43 percent of the respondents saying they believe the country is heading in the right direction.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters in the poll said they believe the economy will get better in the next year, with 29 percent saying they believe it will stay about the same. Eight percent said they believe the economy will get worse during the next year.

“The economy is the most prominent issue of the election and is an important reason why Mitt Romney is in a tight race with the incumbent president,” said Kenneth Fernandez, director of the Elon University Poll. “But respondents also seem to have a growing optimism about the economy. More people believe the economy will improve over the next year, and those optimists are more likely to vote for Barack Obama.”

The poll results revealed that younger voters in North Carolina currently favor Obama, while older voters show more support for Romney. Annual income is another divider of support between the two candidates.

According to the poll, the lower the income, the more likely the voter was to support Obama while higher-income earners showed stronger support for Romney.

Levels of support for both candidates were also determined by the likely voters’ race, according to the poll. Fifty-nine percent of white voters said they supported Romney, while 33 percent supported Obama. Eighty-eight percent of likely black voters polled said they supported Obama, while 2 percent supported Romney.

“The findings here suggest that if African Americans and young voters turn out as they did in 2008 this will be a very close election,” Fernandez said. “From August to October we found levels of excitement for both groups increasing. Survey results and official statistics suggest that black turnout is on pace to match 2008 numbers. The youth vote is harder to predict and their excitement about the election still lags behind most other groups.”

Fifty-one percent of all male likely voters support Romney, while 39 percent support Obama, according to the poll. Likely women voters support Obama by 51 percent compared to 40 percent for Romney.

“Although there doesn’t seem to be a gender gap in voter enthusiasm or turnout, the gender gap in support for the two major party candidates is as large as ever, with men and women almost perfectly mirroring each other,” Fernandez said.

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.