As day dawned this morning, the Giants are the fourth-best team in the National League, which, if Bud Selig had lost his mind and declared that 61 games is enough of a season, would make them the National League wild-card team.

To which a sensible person would say simply, "Well, da-amn."

The idea that this team, so lopsided when it left spring training, so vulnerable offensively, so not quite it, is suddenly a player in the amorphous blob that is the National League is hard for folks to fathom. Even after only 37 percent of the season, it is a triumph of grasp exceeding sleeve length, an improbably improbable improbability.

But then you sit down and look at the other teams in the National League, and you find yourself asking, "So, just how improbable should it really be?"

True, this is a vision that requires some serious squinting, given that the Giants still will have to clean the carburetor to reach the modest total of 650 runs. Many ways have been mentioned to juice up the attack, from the ubiquitous Jonathan-Sanchez-for-Name-Your-Own-Hall-of-Famer to the Call-Up-John-Bowker-and-See-If-He-Can-Hit-Left-Handers-Now-Club.

But let's say the trade market doesn't turn out to be that yielding. Let's say the constant demands for Matt Cain or Pablo Sandoval exasperate Brian Sabean, or that the available contracts annoy Bow-Tie Billy and the Dancing Investors. Let's say, in a fit of annoyance, that they just decide to make do with what they have in stock.

The question just leaps out at you. Does this team have enough to become a contender as is? And is this late enough in the season to ask the question at all?

Oh, Bruce Bochy gave the stock managerial answer: "If we keep playing and pitching and grinding the way we have, I think we can stay in it." I mean, what's he going to say? "Are you nuts? Don't you watch us hit? Of course we don't."

He also said he thought it was hard to think about being a contender until at least the end of the month. "We haven't really played everyone yet, so you have to take that into consideration," he said. "I don't think you have to see everyone to make a judgment about who's likely to stay in the race and who's going to drop out, but you should have a pretty good idea closer to the All-Star break."

That makes sense, but it's also way too late for our purposes. The Giants haven't been close enough to anything more glorified than 11th place these last several years, so you might as well fantasize while the brain pan is hot.

For one, based on what we know about the rest of the field, the wild-card winner may only need to win 85 games. This has never happened in a full season, but the teams all look so vulnerable and ordinary now that the Giants' one-winged duck looks as good as anything else on the menu.

"You can't do that, though, because you have to remember teams like the Rockies a couple of years ago (won 21 of their last 23), or the A's team that won 20 in a row" in 2002, Rich Aurilia warned. "We're going pretty good right now, and you have to like the way we compete every night. We never get blown out, so you know the young guys are getting the idea. But teams get hot and cold, and things change all the time. "

This annoying sense of prudence, though, denies the reality of the moment, and that reality is that the National League is a mess.

The Dodgers and Phillies are fine enough as far as it goes, but after that, we defy you to pick a lock. Milwaukee (34-28) is deeply ordinary, its pitching betraying it at every turn. St. Louis (34-29) has trouble keeping its rotation aligned. New York (32-28) is injured and easily distracted. Cincinnati (31-30) has pitching and hitting, but not quite enough of either. Atlanta (30-31) is too spotty, Chicago (29-30) is imploding. Florida (31-33) is even less inspiring than Atlanta or Chicago. Colorado (30-32) had to win 10 straight, plus fire its manager, just to get to this point.

Even the largely grisly Astros, Pirates and Padres aren't too far out of the race, though they will be soon enough. The Diamondbacks and Nationals have coins on their lifeless eyes, but everyone else is in play, and nobody is tearing up the field.

So the Giants going 13-5 against drab competition, plus the Cardinals, puts them at the head of this formless and suspect class.

Yes, it would be better for them if second base and left field weren't such offensive dry holes, and if the bullpen were a tad more stalwart. It would be better if Sandoval's elbow got better and the Giants could find out if Bowker's strike zone improvements at Fresno can carry over to the big show. It would be better if they could get a power hitter on the market without having to say names like Bumgarner, Alderson or Posey.

In short, the National League's fourth best team probably won't be anything special, whoever it is, and the Giants are at the top end of not special right here and now, flaws and all. They might not be able to hold their spot, or someone might win 20 in a row, but they're still playing with the casino's money in the middle of June, which is about two months later in the season than anyone thought them capable.