Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

The conflict is already here. As it seems, China always planned to invade Taiwan and upset the teetering Pacific balance. Myanmar and India won’t have any more. Declassified notes (last week) suggest China was lying about their intentions with Hong Kong since 1958 and Thatcher knew this in her confidential talks with Beijing in the 1980’s. The “economic” rout to taking over Taiwan seems only a way to bide time so that Beijing’s military could grow stronger and, thus, their invasion would be more likely to succeed. Economics were never a “first option”, but only a ploy.

Analysts who buy into to the “by fore if necessary” rhetoric could say that China’s “economic option” (AKA a ‘hostile takeover’) with Taiwan was “wishful thinking” or an “either way” approach. Through economic ties, so it could be said, Beijing could cripple Taiwan before the invasion. Thus, Taiwan could always cave, “but if not”, Beijing would be in a better position. The problem with this speculation, however, is that Beijing’s actions were always provocative.

The “if” in “by force if necessary” was a small “if”. Beijing was never polite enough to make Taiwan want to come willfully. Beijing made sure of that in their public response to Hong Kong’s Umberlla movement. Beijing, so it seems, always hoped that Taiwan would resist so the old Chinese autocrats would have the excuse they need to use military force to show off their power.

A wannabe should never flex his muscles in public, lest the world see how weak he is. But, wannabes don’t know this. China has been itching to flex its adolescent muscles for eons. The writing is on the wall. China’s evidential policy since the Chairman Mao Communist Party’s beginning was never “by force if necessary”, but “by force, and we’ll make it necessary”.

The environment and Israel share a spotlight in Taiwan’s and China’s headlines. Lines are being drawn across the Pacific sands and waters. Taiwan’s political revolution grows evermore foreseeably inevitable. Smog is on the horizon. Taiwan’s DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen, despised by China and likely Taiwan’s next president, makes headlines with America’s Heritage Foundation, indicating her rising notoriety. William Lai’s Tainan City Government (DPP) continues to crackdown on old school [AKA KMT crony] corruption in Taiwan’s de facto fascist corptocracy and national government.

China won’t like being chased out of the convenient shadows created by Chinese culture’s geriatric corruption anymore than Taiwan’s KMT will. The KMT is too feckless to hit back; Beijing, however, is too “young and dumb” to resist the urge.

The Prelude to Conflict is over. We’re already there. So commences, the Cadence, next week.

…In-depth look at Taiwan’s corruption, how old-school Chinese are good at making numbers lie, old school “friends of KMT era” companies getting away with “feces”, and Tainan City (Mayor William Lai) prosecutors willing to stand up to nation-wide corruption. This raises questions of whether someone wanted to harm the drinking water all along because so much contributed to just that.