RESULTING PRIMARILY FROMSTRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENTAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF ALARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THEFUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THEUKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLYSHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBALMODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEMCONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODELDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPSMODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODELCANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHTNOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THATSUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

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