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Committee on Understanding Crime Trends
Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, Editors
Committee on Law and Justice
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn
from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee respon-
sible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Contract Grant No. 2001-MU-MU-0007 between
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute of Justice, Office of
Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Any opinions, findings, conclusions,
or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-12586-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-12586-3
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or
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Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Second printing with corrections.
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2008). Understanding Crime
Trends: Workshop Report. Committee on Understanding Crime Trends, Arthur
S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, Editors. Committee on Law and Justice,
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press.

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COMMITTEE ON UNDERSTANDING CRIME TRENDS
RICHARD ROSENFELD (Cochair), Department of Criminology and
Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER (Cochair), Department of Economics,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, John Heinz III School of Public Policy and
Management, Carnegie Mellon University
PHILLIP J. COOK, Stanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
KAREN HEIMER, Department of Sociology and Public Policy Center,
University of Iowa
JANET L. LAURITSEN, Department of Criminology and Criminal
Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
MICHAEL G. MAXFIELD, School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers
University
CAROL PETRIE, Study Director
LINDA DePUGH, Administratie Assistant

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COMMITTEE ON LAW AND JUSTICE
JAMES Q. WILSON (Chair), Department of Political Science, Pepperdine
University
DAVID H. BAYLEY, School of Criminal Justice, State University of New
York, Albany
RICHARD J. BONNIE, Institute of Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy,
University of Virginia
PHILIP J. COOK, Stanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
MARTHA CRENSHAW, Department of Government, Wesleyan
University
ROBERT D. CRUTCHFIELD, Department of Sociology, University of
Washington, Seattle
JOHN DILULIO, JR., Department of Sociology, University of
Washington, Seattle
STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
JOHN A. FEREJOHN, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
BRUCE HOFFMAN, RAND Corporation, Arlington, Virginia
ROBERT L. JOHNSON, Department of Pediatrics, New Jersey Medical
School, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey
JOHN H. LAUB, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice,
University of Maryland
TRACEY L. MEARES, Center for Studies in Criminal Justice, School of
Law, University of Chicago
TERRIE E. MOFFITT, SGDP Research Center, Institute of Psychiatry,
University of London
MARK H. MOORE, Hauser Center for Nonprofit Organizations,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
RUTH D. PETERSON, Department of Sociology, Criminal Justice
Research Center, Ohio State University
RICHARD ROSENFELD, Department of Criminology and Criminal
Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
ROBERT J. SAMPSON, Department of Sociology, Harvard University
JEREMY TRAVIS, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University
of New York
CHRISTY A. VISHER, Justice Policy Center, Urban Institute,
Washington, DC
i

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CONTRIBUTORS
ERIC P. BAUMER, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice,
University of Missouri, St. Louis
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, John Heinz III School of Public Policy and
Management, Carnegie Mellon University
STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
JEFFREY FAGAN, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia
University
ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
KAREN HEIMER, Department of Sociology and Public Policy Center,
University of Iowa
JANET L. LAURITSEN, Department of Criminology and Criminal
Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
SALVADOR NAVARRO, Department of Economics, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
JOHN V. PEPPER, Department of Economics, University of Virginia
DAVID A. RIVERS, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin,
Madison
RICHARD ROSENFELD, Department of Criminology and Criminal
Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
ii

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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce-
dures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research
Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that assist the institution in making the published report
as sound as possible and ensure that the report meets institutional standards
for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity
of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review
of the report: Julie Horney, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany,
State University of New York; Gary LaFree, National Center for the Study
of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Department of Criminology/
Democracy Collaborative, University of Maryland; James P. Lynch, John
Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY; Steven Raphael, Richard
and Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California,
Berkeley; Ronald B. (Ralph) Taylor, Department of Criminal Justice, Temple
University; and Wesley G. Skogan, Political Science and the Institute for
Policy Research, Northwestern University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Darnell F. Hawkins,
African American Studies, Sociology, and Criminal Justice, University of
Illinois. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible
ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
for making certain that an independent examination of this report was car-
ried out it in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review
comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of
this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institutions.

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Preface
The United States has experienced its lowest levels of violent crime in a
generation and no longer leads the developed world in all forms of violent
and property crime. However, the factors underlying the large fluctuations
in violent crime during the past two decades remain poorly understood.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation recently reported that the nation’s
violent crime rate dropped slightly in 2007 from its 2006 levels, especially
in medium-sized cities. Yet as of fall 2008, consumer confidence is in steep
decline, which research has shown to be associated with increases in rob-
bery and property crime. Our ability to forecast whether crime will go up
or down in 2009 and beyond, however, remains rudimentary.
This volume of papers resulted from a 2007 workshop to examine
crime trends. It addresses some key substantive and methodological issues
underlying what is currently known about crime trends and discusses ways
to improve understanding of both year-to-year and long-term change in
crime trends.
The committee thanks, first, the National Institute of Justice of the
U.S. Department of Justice, for its ongoing support of the work of the
Committee on Law and Justice, including the workshop on crime trends.
The committee also thanks the National Consortium for Violence Research
at Carnegie Mellon University for contributing resources to support the
workshop.
This volume would not have been possible without the participation of
many senior scholars and practitioners from the criminal justice field. The
committee thanks the following people for their invaluable contributions
to the workshop and this collection of papers: David Bayley, University
xi

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xii PREFACE
of Albany (SUNY); Allen Beck, Bureau of Justice Statistics; Richard A.
Berk, University of Pennsylvania; Richard J. Bonnie, University of Virginia;
Henry Brownstein, National Opinion Research Center; Patrick Campbell,
Bureau of Justice Statistics; Patrick Clark, National Institute of Justice;
Robert D. Crutchfield, University of Washington; Linda DePugh, National
Research Council; Terry Dunworth, The Urban Institute; Rachel King,
House Committee on the Judiciary; John Laub, University of Maryland;
Akiva Liberman, National Institute on Drug Abuse; Tracey Meares, Yale
University Law School; Angela Moore, National Institute of Justice; Robert
S. Mueller III, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Carol Petrie, National
Research Council; Michael Rand, Bureau of Justice Statistics; Winnie Reed,
National Institute of Justice; Peter Reuter, University of Maryland; Jeffrey
Sedgwick, Office of Justice Programs, Department of Justice; Jeremy Travis,
John Jay College of Criminal Justice; Christy Visher, University of Delaware;
Neil Weiner, Vera Institute; and James Q. Wilson, Pepperdine University.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce-
dures approved by the Report Review committee of the National Research
Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that assist the institution in making the published report
as sound as possible and ensure that the report meets institutional standards
for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity
of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review
of the report: Julie Horney, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany,
State University of New York; Gary LaFree, National Center for the Study
of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Department of Criminology/
Democracy Collaborative, University of Maryland; James P. Lynch, John
Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY; Steven Raphael, Richard
and Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California,
Berkeley; Wesley G. Skogan, Political Science and the Institute for Policy
Research, Northwestern University; and Ronald B. (Ralph) Taylor, Depart-
ment of Criminal Justice, Temple University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Darnell F. Hawkins,
African American Studies, Sociology, and Criminal Justice, University of
Illinois (Emeritus). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was
responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this
report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and
that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the

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xiii
PREFACE
final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the
institutions.
We hope that the volume can contribute to scientific and policy discus-
sion about what is needed to improve crime trend data and methods of
analysis so that future policy decisions to address crime problems will have
a stronger scientific foundation.
Richard Rosenfeld and Arthur S. Goldberger, Cochairs
Committee on Understanding Crime Trends