The Fall and the Fall of Hariri

The sudden resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri raises a number of questions.

To fast track the main relevant events of the last decade or so, Hariri was Saudi Arabia’s favourite kid on the Lebanese block. After all, his father was a close friend and a business partner of Prince Fahed, who later on became King Fahed. And because he harbours similar anti-Shiite passions like his Saudi allies, Hariri and Saudi Arabia became natural partners in Lebanese anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syria politics and partners in the ”War on Syria” at all levels; including facilitating the transit of fighters and munitions from Lebanon into Syria.

The loss of the gamble in Syria and the change of guards in the Saudi hierarchy and the elevation of King Salman and his son Mohamed (MBS) to power, Hariri found himself demoted. Not only his family did not have strong ties with the new guards, but also MBS seemed to loath him. To add insult to injury, with the down turn of the Saudi economy, Hariri’s main Saudi company (Oger) was under severe financial stress, and instead of being given the Saudi government subsidy and huge railway contract it was promised, it received zilch and it was forced into bankruptcy under the deliberate watchful eye of MBS.

Hariri was punished by MBS for his failures in Lebanon; or rather for the success of Hezbollah. And even within the fragmented Lebanon, the once star and head of the so-called the 14th of March alliance that included a huge range of Lebanese power brokers including Christian Maronite and Druze leaders, with the failure of the Syrian venture that coalition was decimated and even its Sunni component was fractured as some Sunni leaders challenged the leadership and prowess of Hariri.

To that effect, even General Ashraf Rifi declared mutiny. Rifi is the former Lebanese Police Chief. He was the power broker in the northern city of Tripoli and Hariri’s right arm in arming and supporting the Sunni militia in the locality of Baba El-Tabbaneh against the little and besieged Alawite enclave of Jabal Mohsen. Rifi blamed Hariri for the failure of the military venture within Tripoli and accused Hariri of weakness and declared his mutiny and formed his own power base; supported and financed by Saudi Arabia.

As a Sunni himself, Rifi did not only challenge Hariri in Tripoli and won the municipal council’s elections by a strong margin, but has also challenged the overall political status of Hariri about who is more worthy of holding the title of the Lebanese Sunni leader. For this reason, Rifi tried hard to create an image of himself as that of the tough man who will deal with difficulty and win; unlike his political opponent Hariri, that he tried to portray as a wimp.

The Saudi-Hariri impasse was only strengthened by the Lebanese presidential elections. Saudi Arabia was adamant to block the election of Michel Aoun; a staunch supporter of Hezbollah, and as his election was becoming more imminent, in an act of dismay, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador in Lebanon. To add insult to injury, Hariri had to engage in a deal with the new president, his former foe, and be his prime minister. At that point, one could argue that the Saudi-Hariri relationship was totally and irrevocably severed.

As a matter of fact, when Hariri was given the appointment as prime minister almost exactly a year ago, he had already lost not only his strong and powerful Saudi allies, but also his fortune and many of his Lebanese power brokers and street support. He had very little clout left, and in a country like Lebanon, leaders with no clout don’t get a bite of the cherry let alone the whole pie. His appointment however was meant to be akin to national reconciliation.

This brief summary brings us back to the present.

So what made Hariri go to Riyadh and announce his resignation, as the prime minister of Lebanon, from the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh?

Clearly, both Hariri and MBS are looking for a resurrection.

Ironically, a few hours after Hariri’s freak resignation, a Burkan H-2 Yemeni missile has reportedly hit Riyadh airport, and it seems that another one was intercepted around the outskirts of the capital. The fire that MBS started and stoked in Yemen is now capable of hitting his capital, and he has much at stake to fight for and he is desperate for all forms of Saudi resurrection; and this is why, among other things, he is pushing for reform.

But instead of MBS focusing only on his home front, ailing economy and finding a way to end the war on Yemen, he continues to enter into new and expensive ventures, and he seems determined to restore the destructive role of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon.

High on MBS’s agenda is to look for every possible way and opportunity to lash back at Iran and Hezbollah; the major allies of his Yemeni Houthi foes. He is being pragmatic, putting former differences between himself and Hariri aside, to re-establish the Saudi role in Lebanon and to re-instate its position as a major power broker in Lebanon.

On his part, Hariri would have loved to see the rapprochement happen a year ago or so, and before his Oger went belly up, a rapprochement that would have saved it, but nevertheless, Hariri will take pennies even though he would wish for nuggets. MBS has reduced him to the position of a beggar, and beggars cannot be choosers.

For someone who is already the prime minister of a country, what incentive does he need to be given to quit and what bigger fish does he have to fry by quitting the top job? These are questions that cannot be answered unless one knows how the unique politics of Lebanon work.

In Lebanon, a political leader does not have to be technically in power (ie in parliament or cabinet) to be effectively in power. Hariri seems more interested in restoring the grass-root support that he lost. That said, he originally bought this support base, yes with money and gifts, and as his fortune dwindled, so did his support base. Being a “wimp” as his Rifi rival refers to him, was not alone the reason for the slump of his popularity.

Speaking of Rifi again, it is possible, in fact highly likely, that a part of the new MBS-Hariri deal is that Saudi Arabia pulls the rug from underneath Rifi’s feet. After all, Saudi Arabia may not see in Rifi the rightful Lebanese partner. He is to some degree an independent thinker, not just a follower of orders, and he is in his mid-sixties. He will soon run out of momentum. The much younger Hariri puppet has perhaps resurrected his position with the Saudi royals in the hope of restoring his street support in Lebanon. As for his lost wealth, we will not know what the details of the new deal are, but money will be a huge lubricant.

Whatever the details of the newly-founded Saudi-Hariri alliance are, they do not have much chance of success. The battle was lost in Syria, and for Hariri to be able to pick up the pieces and reverse the situation from within Lebanon, he does not have much chance of success; especially that Hezbollah now is stronger than ever, both militarily and politically. Only an Israeli military gamble in Lebanon can potentially change the balance in favour of Hariri and Saudi Arabia. Having said that, any such gamble will most likely backfire, just like previous gambles. If Israel and Hezbollah have another showdown, and this is probably a question of when not if, the timing and location may not be of Israel’s choosing.

MBS and Hariri are more likely to achieve nothing at all with their new alliance. Apart from getting media coverage and analysis reports like this one, the most they can affectively achieve is more street riots and acts of sabotage. This time, the Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah will be on full alert and preparedness to deal with them, after all, with the “War on Syria” coming to its end and the Syrian-Lebanese borders secured already, Lebanon and Hezbollah do not need to watch their back.

The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire

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Ghassan always provides good insights into some of the internal dynamics of the massively complex M.E. situation but I think he is seriously mistaken if he thinks the war on Syria is anywhere near it’s end.

There is a very detailed and clear map of the state of occupation of Syria on Canthama’s twitter page.

For simplicity’s sake if we regard any force shooting and bombing the Syrian army or people as terrorists which they are then the map (dated 4 November) indicates –

1) The entire Syrian landmass east of the Euphrates is heavily occupied by US backed SDF etc etc with multiple US bases including airbases.

2) The northwest of Syria is occupied by various terrorist forces (called FSA and SDF) and others not worth differentiating as they are all anti-government terrorists.

3) In the South east of Syria the US occupy Al Tanf in anew base along with terrorist groups with whom they are allied in an area about 100km wide.

4) Terrorists forces also occupy Syrian territory in Dara’a at the Israeli border, the Homs area and even in the Damascus area where yesterday they shelled the city killing civilians.

5) Turkey has also said it’s building 8 bases inside Syria and a report from Fars claims that Turkish Intelligence is training Chinese terrorists to fight Assad.

I wonder how anyone can look at this map and say the war is nearly over.

I posted an item from Fars a few weeks back pointing out how ISIS simply morphs into SDF and others have shown how all these assorted anti government forces are just US/Israeli proxies.

Developments in the last day or two give a clear indication of this renewed effort against Syria.

Nor is the US occupied area a static situation but the air bases (the US have 2) are being used to bomb the Syrian population on an industrial scale and ethnically cleanse the north east as they have done in Raqqa and the east. The US wants the north east of Syria ethnically cleansed.

No one it seems wants to face the reality of the US occupation because there is nothing they can do about it.
And quite apart from that as the map shows there are terrorist enclaves in many important places, terrorist who never run out of ammo, or men or supplies.

They now can keep this up indefinitely.

The only hopeful sign is that US resolve may weaken in which case much of the terrorist strength would dissolve away but I see no sign of that. The war is getting worse and will not be won til the US is out of there whereas US actions show the opposite – more determination than ever.
And with the exceptional status the US enjoys whereby nobody ever shoots them they have a firm and unchallengeable base in the north east from which to bomb and murder Syrians at will.

I think there has been an underestimation of the Zionists’ resolve.

Politically and on the surface, the US seems a mess but throughout the Trump dramas the deep state has never waivered in it’s determination and we see the results. It is imho a very grave mistake to underestimate what the US can do in terms of destructive power.

“look for the indirect strategy that will create for US necessity to depart”

But what indirect strategy? Does one exist?

Look at the map and you’ll see that the anti-Assad forces occupy about a quarter to a third of Syria.

Nothing on Earth will shift the US out of there except collapse of their dollar which Geoff Brown ably describes elsewhere making the proviso that the Chinese do not want to damage their own huge trade with the US which I interpret as nothing happening dramatically soon.

Other than that the US and it’s army of Zionist-salaried terrorists are prepping themselves for more war on Syria not less.
And of course occupying a part of Syria containing half it’s oilfields means it costs them nothing and the US mic are actually profiting handsomely from massive weapon sales.

Nor is there any threat to the US hegemon here since no US soldiers are going home in body bags to embarrass them, the terrorist groups are expendable, and worse, infinitely replaceable – and as I have said the US forces themselves are immune from any hostile military action.

Perfect conditions for the US occupation I’d say.

One question I’d love to hear a comment on from those with military knowledge is this –

If we look at a “normal” military campaign such as the events in Debaltsevo, Ukraine where the junta army attacked the DPR and LPR and were eventually surrounded forcing a surrender, we can see that even although the Ukies had thousands of men encircled, all of them armed, they still had to surrender because they had no open supply lines and would if they fought on simply be annihilated.

Now compare that to, say the situation in Damascus where a much much smaller enclave of terrorists have been shelling the Syrian capital for months on end.
They never run out of men, weapons or food yet are completely encircled.

How is this possible?

Either they are superhuman fighters being re-supplied under the very noses of the SAA or they have tunnels at least many tens of kilometres long.

There are other enclaves too eg Homs, again encircled, again fighting goes on for months, no end in sight yet.

Seems very weird to me.

Anyway each to their own opinion but those seeking the truth about Syria do need to look deeper and whilst it is understandable to see Syrian territorial gains that have occurred as indicating eventual liberation of the whole country, I think the war on Syria will actually get worse.

To put it bluntly, there is nothing stopping the US.

Russia is staying well away from the US occupied territory ( the fifth of Syria east of the Euphrates)for very understandable reasons and the US know this too.

So arraigned against the SAA, the Iraqis, Hezbollah and the Iranians we have an infinite budget , 13 US bases with 2 airbases, thousands of highly retrained and re-equipped terrorists, plus special forces from Israel and NATO. and even, thanks to “ally” Turkey hundreds of new Chinese fighters trained by Turkey to join the attack on the Syrian government.

Reality is the US are not going to leave, nor negotiate for one minute about this and their mission is the eventual destruction of the Syrian and Iranian states and that is what they are going slowly and methodically about.

With all due respect, Zena, the Russian General Staff is the guide for accurate evaluation.
The use of coloring on maps leads to vast desert areas colored ISIS or AQ or al Nusra or Kurd or some new hodgepodge dreamed up or schemed up by CIA-IDF.

One visit by six bombers from Russia and 100 sq miles of land is cleared of all life holding a gun or riding on a Toyota truck. Six Kalibrs turn to dust the hardened HQ and ammo caches of a 1000 fighters paid by Saudi or US backers.

Russia has spoken politely to the US Centcom. Now Mr. Kalibr and Mr. Backfire are speaking.

Holdouts will be insurgents, and they will become target practice for Spetsnaz, IRGC, PMU, and Syrian elite units to sharpen their sniper skills.

Yes, war and counter-insurgency is in the cards for a year more.
But isolation and extermination is the strategy from here on.

US bases? Rubber tires stacked and filled with sand, topped with barbed or concertina wire are merely targets for GRADS and thermobaric rockets.
The air bases are dirt fields, not guarded by much defensive systems. And will be cratered if the Russians think they should be. Certainly, the Syrians will crater them, as will Iran, and maybe Iraq will fire something at the nearby bases. No one wants the US to stay, neither in Syria nor in Iraq.

Inflicting pain will come after damage is done to US logistical support.
Does the US plan a war? Yes, for others to fight, not them. They have a pool of about 20,000 or so AQ and ISIS fighters, maybe 5000 die hard “rebels” who hate Assad.
The fact they are all in tiny, small, or medium-sized cauldrons on the map means they will be liquidated in rapid fashion when addressed.

The Big Syrian War is ending. The Insurgency and border war is beginning.

Forget those color-wash maps. They are completely useless. The Russians know. They’ve done this before.

If it wasn’t for all the innocent civilians in the way or held hostage, it is about 10 days work to wipe off the face of the Earth the rest of the proxies/terrorists.

@ Zena I here you and concur with a lot of what u r saying. The next phase in Syria will be the wholesale terrorism. Anglo-zi0onist always play this way . Historical and verifiable facts. US civil war designed and created by the anglo-zionist. Lincoln and McKinley murdered by anglo-zionist agents. Federal reserve act 1913 created by the anglo-zionist. Syria will go through their next phase of hell with terrorism IE Lebanon post 1976. The Russians game is plain and simple Damascus in the ME Stalingrad. Israeli and their anglo-zionist handlers are cornered and are acting like rabid dogs. I will give you another great example. Brexit anglo-zionist new it would happen and here is where things get even more deceptive. Do you re call Xi’s famous visit to London pre Brexit vote. Well here Xi and the anglo-zionist made a deal. Who do you think is going to control the new Renembi gold swaps. Good old anglo-zionist out of London. Hence all we see with China ain’t all it is . Remember these pure evil entities always hedge their bets. I can tell you the Russian know this for a fact.
The anglo-zionist are throwing the land of the not so free under the bus and have gone to the new economic power house. One could say it is the new Sino anglo-zionist alliance. It is all by design. Why do you think that here own the west we have created such a debt ridden system. It is so the western system dies and gets replaced with the OBOR> Welcome to NWO> Cryptocurrencies are part of that design . . Hence their is a lot that we the sheeple are not part and parcel to. Saudi Arabia was duped by the anglo-zionist in bringing down the petro price and now they r paying for that. By the way stories have it that the SDF has handed over the oil fields to the Spetnatz forces and some players from the sell out Kurds are dealing with the Syrian government. The fact that they could not get to Abu-Khamal and the PMU with the IRGC and SAA trumped them has changed more of the deceptive game that is playing out. One thing is 4 sure I smell a rat with all the recent DNC revelations and Hollywood immorality revelations I sense BY DECEPTION YOU MAY WAGE WAR is being played out as we speak.

In addition, the Kurds are forcefully conscripting (or at least are trying to) the indigenous civilians into their totally overwhelmed ground forces. The Iraqis have taken the Iraq/Syria/Turkey border post effectively splitting the putative Kurdistan in two. They have also build two pontoon bridges over the river Tigris a couple of km northwest of Khanik in north east Iraq. This will allow Iraqi troops to control the eastern border of Syria.

The Kurd forces are totally reliant on US air support for logistics and also helicopters for rapid movement of small groups across large swathes of territory. Without US air cover, these forces will rapidly collapse.

RuAF helicopters and SAA helicoptrs/aircraft are already operating out of Deir ez Zor. The Syrians have acquired ~8 Buk missile systems, ~60 Pantsir S1/S2 systems (and less relevantly, 3 Bastion complexes). Give them a few months for training and they will have a competent short range air defense system. Long range radar cover will probably be provided by the Russians as part of the Russian/Syrian air defense cooperation.

The military challenge to Assad’s rule is over, but significant amounts of Syrian territory remain in the hands of others. If Assad has “won” the war, he’s done so at the cost of dismembering his country.
Since 2016, some observers have taken an initial look at a partition, which would probably include an Alawite region around Damascus, running to the sea, ruled by the Assad regime or its follow-on leaders. It would also have a central portion that hopefully over time would be run by a moderate Sunni regime, obviously after subduing the Islamic State and various al Qaeda factions. Finally, and most controversially, it might include a Kurdish enclave in the east. Obviously, the approach for a partition could range from a full break-up of the country (much as Yugoslavia broke up after the death of Marshal Josip Tito); to a very federated system like Bosnia after the Dayton Accords; to a weak but somewhat federated model like Iraq.
Despite the negatives, partitions can be used with good effect to move warring parties to opposite sides of the battle space.
For a population that is already almost 50 percent displaced, frankly, there is not much to lose. A partition could provide a simple chance to leave a refugee camp or avoid a long and dangerous trek to an asylum state — in effect creating the elusive “safe zones” that the international community has yet to put in place.

The military challenge to Assad’s rule is over, but significant amounts of Syrian territory remain in the hands of others. If Assad has “won” the war, he’s done so at the cost of dismembering his country. This could be no more than a temporary obstacle on an inexorable path towards total victory. But a number of factors — including Russia’s pragmatic approach to ending the war and the US’ enduring counter-terrorism objectives — suggest that Syria’s de facto partition is a more likely outcome.http://eaworldview.com/2017/11/forthcoming-partition-syria/

For as long as the Palestinian problem is not resolved, and for as long as the Arab-Israeli conflict exists, the axis of resistance (embodied by Syria) will always be in a state of war; and technically, under attack. In this context, the bigger “War on Syria” is not over, and not coming to an end soon.

That said, that war on Syria that started in March 2011 is no longer. The current American-led attack and presence in the remote and rather desolate north east is by no comparison as critical as the offensive that once controlled Homs, parts of Hama, half of Aleppo and had Damascus under siege. In practical terms, the American presence in Syria amounts to nothing, and I hope that not-too-distant future events will prove this prediction right.

It must be remembered that 90% of Syria’s population lives west of the Euphrates, and this is where the economical, industrial and military power house is.

As for Turkey, Erdgoan would not any more dare take any step without the direct or tacit approval of Russia. In as much as I loath the idea, strategically-speaking, Turkey is now an ally of Syria working under the directive of the Russian-Iranian-Turkish alliance.

The reference to the war on Syria being coming to its end in the article was related primarily to the Lebanese-Syrian borders. Prior to the liberation of Al-Qusair by the Syrian Army in May 2013 and the eventual clean up of the Qalamoun/Arsal mountains on the eastern Lebanese borders with Syria, more than 150 kms of Syrian-Lebanese borders were free game for smuggling fighters and munitions from Lebanon to Syria and vice versa.

The former Lebanese President Michel Suleiman did not want to take any steps to secure the borders under the guise of not interfering with the event in Syria. On the other hand, Syria was too busy and her army stretched fighting in other areas. To make it ever worse, Hezbollah was politically incapable to do the Lebanese Army’s job because of political reasons; not because it didn’t have enough fire power.

This has now all changed, and those borders are secured, and any attempts to created havoc within Lebanon, cannot any longer bank on the influx from those porous borders. This is the point that I was trying to emphasize.

“It must be remembered that 90% of Syria’s population lives west of the Euphrates, and this is where the economical, industrial and military power house is.”
It is true that 85% of what remains of Syria’s population, lives West of the Euphrates ( considering that about 50% of Syria’s population is displaced), but 80 % of Oil and Gas resources are in the hands of (Kurds under NATO control), East of Euphrates. The rest is a lot of Destruction and a lot of Sand.

Thanks for replying Ghassan. Your articles are always very rewarding and informative but I just disagreed that the war is coming to an end.
Some Russian and other media are saying that it is nearly over of course and I assume they are looking at AQ and ISIS only, enabling them to say that the terrorists only occupy 5% when Canthama’s map shows a quite different picture.

But the US training is, funding and recruiting more, “rebranding” them as SDF or FSA and though I can’t find the link I had an article claiming 20,000 terrorists being trained near AL Tanf alone.

When you say “In practical terms, the American presence in Syria amounts to nothing” I do have a problem seeing that.
Surely we know that it is the US (with Israel shouting in their ear) that is –

– ferrying terrorists and their leaders around in Syria from town to town.
– paying their wages
– giving them intel
– ensuring never ending supply of weapons
– with it’s air force bombing Syrian and Iraqi civilians where tens of thousands have been killed or fled (ethnic cleansing)

In fact the whole war is imho being run by Washington, London and Tel Aviv.

This is a globalists campaign with infinite amount of money. I believe that if the US was to leave Syria, the whole war would wind down and fizzle out.
Just because we don’t see hundreds of American troops running about doesn’t mean they are not in charge “leading from behind”

You say “As for Turkey, Erdogan would not any more dare take any step without the direct or tacit approval of Russia”

I agree up to a point but then why has Erdogan announced he’s building 8 bases inside Syria and even worse, training new Chinese terrorists with a specific mission to fight the Syrian government.
(Fars news posted link earlier)

He is one very slippery guy and again imho not to be trusted.

The war on Syria is about more than just the painful struggle of the Syrians. It is a key part of the globalists strategy for world domination and must be destroyed so they can achieve this after they (try to with no chance imo) destroy Iran and Russia and it is funded and run at the highest levels by western NATO.

Since both Putin and Lavrov have said Syria must regain control of all it’s territory we are left wondering how they will achieve this because whilst the Kurdistan plan “A” has failed, plan “B” partition of Syria, seems to have taken place with the land east of the Euphrates now firmly occupied and Northern Syria under Turkish control and terrorist attacks continuing within the land president Assad controls.

To me it looks worrying but then again I might be wrong.
I hope you will write again soon for “The Saker”

“the newly-arrived terrorists have been equipped with the most modern weapons, adding that the terrorists have been trained by the Turkish intelligence service to join war on the Syrian army in the provinces of Lattakia, Idlib and Hama.”

I wonder what Russia has to say about that.

From the same article

“They added that two groups of Jeish al-Izzah and Jeish Idlib Hor, affiliated to the FSA, united with al-Nusra.”

The US run terrorist army are like chameleons shifting and changing their brand names at will.
To say the war is ending just because AQ and ISIS are defeated is both meaningless and deceptive

And from today’s news –

“The US has supplied us with 120 Hummer armored vehicles and heavy armament for the Deir ez-Zor operation, including missiles, infra-red guidance missiles, machine guns, mine throwers, Kalashnikov assault rifles and other ammunition,” the SDF source told Sputnik Turkiye on condition of anonymity.”

Photo after the fall of a handsome and debonair powerplay boy. The expensive suit does not look happy with that desperate haunted face poking out of the obligatory superwhite shirt collar. And the tie has come adrift — only a few millimetres loose and a few mm askew, but that sort of thing to that sort of man is equivalent to appearing naked in public.

Not surprising since Hariri is a dual Lebanese/Saudi citizen. How that a country can let their PM be a dual citizen of another country is beyond me. That in itself should automatically disqualify a person from that office. In Lebanon there seem to be 4 main groups,Shia,Christians,Sunni,Druze. My understanding is that,that is also the numerical order of the population as well.Though some reports show the Christian and Shia groups changing place in that order. With what is happening in Syria,from what I hear,the Shia and Christians have come to ally themselves together (at least to some extent) in Lebanon.With Hezbollah being pretty popular among many Christians as well as Shia. Hopefully those two will continue to work together to save Lebanon from the US/Israeli/Saudi plots to destroy Lebanon.

Hariri’s (name mean “silken” in Arabic) mother was a beauty. She was much admired in the Saudi court. His father was above all a businessman. I would not be surprised if the biological father of Saad Hariri is a Saudi ruler or prince. He certainly had the inside track in Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the recent changes in Saudi Arabia have displaced his real dad. I am only guessing here.

Little do I know but is it possible that Hariri is being set up as some sort of sacrificial lamb whose last purpose is to be slaughtered for some devious purpose?

Just the look on his face shows that he knows he is entering some dangerous waters –a minnow who swims with the sharks? And he seems distraught in his statements as if he already knows he is in over his head.

Behind the screens, the Kurds have made surprise deals with the Russians. The Conoco oil field will be given back to Damascus, and the oil pipelines for Iraqi Kurdish territory will be dealt with by Rosneft.

Israel has promised to bomb Lebanon flat- levelling the major civilian areas. Since the last Gaza holocaust, Britain and America have been shipping massive amounts of bombs built for this purpose into Israel’s stores.

The wahhabi goon, Saad Hariri, announced his ‘resignation’ from Saudi Arabia- a curious fact since at first blush this seems to spoil the Deep State play. After all even the most naive sheeple knows what that means. But… But you always turn to the BBC on such occasions to see what the official ‘spin’ is- and the BBC was 100% coming war between Saudia Arabia and Iran- so that’s the official play.

Meanwhile Saudi’s zionist backed ‘Adolf Hitler’ launched his “night of the long knives”, and we all know what that presages. Saudi’s own ‘Hitler’ has been hard sold as a ‘liberal reformer’ by the BBC and other frontline media outlets in the UK- and of course he threw idiots the bone of ‘women will now be allowed to drive’ to make the lie seem true. Any who point out the hyper extremist wahabbi nature of the latest king puppet in KSA will have the ‘fact’ of his largesse to Saudi women thrown back in their face.

We all know that after France and Britain arranged for a ‘revolution’ in Iran, the USA forced Iraq to attack Iran in ‘revenge’ for happenings at the US embassy in Iran. In truth the Deep State arranged to have two of the regions major actors pound each other to ‘dust’, much as happened with WW2 between Russia and Germany. Deeper thinkers notice how Iran, Iraq, Germany and Russia all arose from their terrible war ordeals ‘stronger’ after quite a short period- suggesting that the Deep State used ‘trial by fire’ to ensure regional powers grew in preparation for far larger wars down the line.

Anyway we know Iran has been tooling up for decades, and considers itself well defended by its ground-to-ground missile systems. We know that foolish people on our side think Saudi ‘weak’ cos national ‘fighters’ from that nation are absolutely hopeless on the battlefield. But like the former British Empire, KSA uses massive mercenary forces, well paid, and armed to the teeth with the best the West ***and*** East can supply. Britain’s RAF has built its largest base in Britain’s history in Saudi Arabia, and British pilots, flying under Saudi colours, practice for war against Iran with their daily strikes in Yemen.

Why did Team Saudi fall out with Qatar? Well the coming American War on Iran- now seemingly sold as a regional war between Iran and KSA- will have the Saudi side include Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey. Britain, American, French and German bombers will attack Iran from the air using the excuse of having to neutralise Iran’s ‘indiscriminate’ missile systems. Clearly the leader of Qatar chose to be a fly in the ointment for some reason.

We should take Libya as the nearest model to the war on Iran. The ground fighting was sold by the zionist press of the West as purely ‘locals’. But these supposed ‘locals’ were assisted by massive numbers of NATO strikes on all parts of Libya that attempted to resist the extremist islamic take-over. Britain and France in particular boasted about destroying town and city outposts set up by the males of those settlements to keep the invaders out.

War on Iran is the big one. Israel wants to do Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank at the same time- using the cover of the Iran war to mass murder in excess of ***one million*** Humans to protect the jewish advantage for decades to come. And this advantage requires non-jews to ‘disappear’ en masse (the leaders of Israel have always loved the methods laid down in Mein Kampf).

Fools will dribble on about ‘oil’ like this is still the 1970s. But today the major powers are fully sufficient in non-Middle East supplies of gas and oil. It’s like how diamonds are really worthless semi-precious stones only made sythetically valuable by insanely vicious methods used by the jews of South Africa who control the diamond trade. These jews have literally murdered hundreds of thousands of ‘black’ people to keep the price of their diamonds sky high. The price of oil is similarly synthetic- the oversupply of oil the Earth currently enjoys should lead to rock bottom prices.

Want to get really scared. The same Putin that is proving the S400 air defence systems to Turkey, and Saudi Arabia (which Putin won’t provide to Iran or Syria), and which Putin in secret is making available to Israel and Egypt, expects the Russia economy to receive an amazing boost when the Wars of the Middle East begin in earnest. The value of Russia oil will rocket. Hundreds of thousands of Russian mercenaries will get ‘excellent’ employment. And sales of Russian weapon systems will go through the roof. The sanctions against Russia will be suspended or ended.

This isn’t to say Putin wants the coming War on Iran- he clearly does not at a personal level. But… Putin is doing nothing to stop it, and doing everything he can to ensure Russia will benefit when the war finally kicks off. This is why the Deep State- typified by Tony Blair- loves Putin so much.

One sometime forgotten fact about the 911 false flag was how many ‘bodies’ the Deep State was able to ‘bury’ during the confusion. And the same thing applies to great wars, only on an infinitely larger scale. While the zionist press focuses on the daily acts during the Iran war, Israel will be able to get away with breathtaking atrocities in all those areas where it deems that non-jews must be exterminated by their tens of thousands. With the ‘eye’ of the BBC, CNN, NYT etc etc carefully away from Israel’s battlefields, Israel will use methods that would have made the original nazis blush. Gaza will literally vanish. The ‘arab’ population of Jerusalem will literally vanish. And Lebanon will, as I said at the top, be totally flattened.

The Saudi road to war with Iran is painfully obvious. The Deep State simply arranges a false flag in KSA that excuses a direct attack on Iran by Saudi forces. Iran responds, Saudi counter responds. The escalation across a two weeks goes from zero to full blown war. The USA, UK and France declare themselves on the side of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi war alliance is all regional powers bar Syria, Iraq and Israel. Turkey and Egypt are part of the Saudi alliance.

Who are Iran’s allies? Iran will have no allies. Certainly not Syria or Iraq, where the sunni power bases will ensure these nations stay ‘neutral’. Certainly not Russia when Putin is a staunch supporter of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran’s time spent in Iraq and Syria and with Russia will prove utterly fruitless.

Iran’s means of defence will be desperate and extreme- driving the anti-Iranian propaganda. The doctrine of MAD (mutually assured destruction) will arise, and Iran will consider chemical, biological and other methods. Remember what happened in the latter half of WW1?

You may say that certain nations like KSA have everything to lose- but they also have the funds to rebuild after the war, and during the war all Saudis that matter will be in Europe, Russia or the USA. The rulers of Saudi care as little for the ordianry citizen as the rulers of Kuwait did during the Iraq invasion.

War on Iran is coming- of that we can be 100% certain. Which road proves to be the right one only time will tell, but to the Deep State Demons, KSA is an expendable asset in the short term.

Great precis, with only a few key points missing should be pointed out.

A FF can at any time be blamed on iran,even if it’s the lowest form i call “FF by press release” eg just look at those 2 supposed missile hits on/near riyadh (blamed on the Yemenis for now).

When putin last year out of the blue (just like the recent S-400 sales to the murderous wahabbi regime) disgracefully invited the frenchies of all the righteous ’empire builders’ into syria to under the ridiculous specious lie to ‘help fight terrorism’ by building themselves a separate base at kobani syrian kurdistan mere miles from the us one, I knew right away the target IS Iran.

For a ritual sacrifice of the highest, it has to involve the top evil kaballah number 6, & there were only 5 bases planned/built there till that one.

note it’s with the full compliance/complicity of the kurds, who aren’t iran’s friend, either.
also to note not one story, not even a press release have they bothered to release about their glorious exploits or joint actions in the year+ since!

they’re still entertaining their delusional visions of regaining their “the lebanon” colony back from a century ago. for a cut of the action, of course.
And if the airbase is a mere few hundred km from iran air space, so what?

The new US base would mark the fifth of its kind in Iraq’s Kurdish region.

A Kurdish military official, requesting anonymity, said US officials, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Masoud Barzani as well as officials from the Ministry of Peshmerga have reached a tripartite agreement on the construction of the base.

But won’t that upcoming meeting in vietnam of all places between him & drumpf be a hoot!

Only good side I can find is all this future action & more endless war is predicated on the $ keeping its safe haven/reserve status by being gushed out in endless unaccountable trillions, but if a gigantic backfire happens in a first strike, as say happened in early 1980 with the Operation Eagle Claw, then blowback could be extreme & fatal to the dollar this time.

If Iran is attacked, its missiles can reach Kuwait and UAE. Both countries don’t want trouble with Iran.

If Israel attacks Lebanon, it will cause a lot of damage to Lebanon, but Hizballah can hurt Israel big time. And if Israel attacks, Hizballah will take over Israel settlements just south of Lebanon. Will Israel bomb its own settlement? The Israelis are too cowardly to go into a war, but they might be stupid enough to do so. They will have a strategic loss.

If Iran is attacked, its missiles can reach Kuwait and UAE. Both countries don’t want trouble with Iran.

If Israel attacks Lebanon, it will cause a lot of damage to Lebanon, but Hizballah can hurt Israel big time. And if Israel attacks, Hizballah will take over Israel settlements just south of Lebanon. Will Israel bomb its own settlement? The Israelis are too cowardly to go into a war, but they might be stupid enough to do so. They will have a strategic loss.”

In late 1941 the same statement might have been applied to the Japanese-US relationship…ie if Japan attacked US, then Japan would be ruined. Japan, knowing this, attacked. Japan ruined.

Please explain how this did not happen, Comrade.

To be baldly clear, people very often do things that are expected to ruin themselves. States do too. To date it seems as though obvious ruin is not a sufficient factor in preventing self-destruction, Comrade.

Yes,Comrade KN, is necessary to assume logic and reality define realm of action. I agree with this premise. However is also incomplete. Illogical actions can be seen as the determinate factor in conflicts….”mistakes” create new realities.

The example of PH etc all in US history include Yamamoto making decision to do attack after he learned secret report from British said that Singapore could not be defended and that the Royal Navy could not come to it’s aid. This resulted from an error by supercargo on the ship carrying that super-secret report. Conjecture exists as to that “coincidence”, if it was. LZ is undecided on that detail.

Recall “all war is based on deception” To be polite we call these errors, when in objective reality they stem from deceptions, of all sorts…ideological, a-priori, deliberate..many sorts.

your posts always seem to mimic western military ideas.
sometimes you even tell us the secret thoughts of Putin.
can i get his number from you to check something?

as for Iran’s lack of allies, you never mention anything
about for instance China’s investments in the Iranian oil
business nor the Russian/Iranian north south corridor or
the great canal infrastructure being implemented or the
vast rail network planned and being implemented.

Yesterday I was surprised to discover that Tajikistan
is 97 per cent mountainous, roads need tunnels and
they have already been built – some are the longest in
the region if not the world. Do CNN or BBC ever
mention it?
I’m sure China’s oil supply will weigh heavily in Chinese
thinking when push comes to shove.
In fact the whole one belt one road is in part to out
maneuver the choke point of the Malacca strait for China.
Pessimistic as your posts tend to make me it is countered
by the gathering optimism of the win win strategy of china,
Russia, Kazakhstan and the BRICS bank which even London
has become Chinese currency issuer, followed by Germany,
France and Italy.
So you see there is a bigger and more subtle picture than
your one dimensional thinking about bases and guns.

War on Iran- now seemingly sold as a regional war between Iran and KSA

Headline in this morning’s Globe and Mail:

Saudi Arabia says missile fired from Yemen is ‘act of war’ by Iran
The accusations raise the threat of a direct military clash between the two regional heavyweights at a time when they are fighting proxy wars in Yemen and Syria

You can’t help but admire the methods by which zionist propagandists keep you glued to their circuses, full spectrum hitting you with the BBC on the main channel and twilight and canthama on the ‘alternative.’

What you see is what you get. The smaller wars we have now will continue, with new fires ignited in southeast asia and on the Indo-Pakistani frontier.

Iranian leadership is allied to the perfidious ones — as is everyone to everyone else at the level of oligarchical elites. The desire of these psychopaths to extract maximum treasure from the blood of your children unites them, and so long as they can accomplish this they will continue to promise disaster and armegeddon while always carefully managing the already well established new zionist
multipolar world order to maximize their power and profit.

So no twilight, there will not be a world war 3, 4 or Z on a grand scale, as you are always promising, but rather a long slow burn war of attrition and genocide, against humanity by easily controllable and extremely lucrative technologies, just as is happening today.

Good article with few details to review:
1. Rifi is not an independent thinker. He background, before heading the internal Security, speaks about his readiness to follow without thinking bit to reach a high position. This is in fact what most officer in Lebanon dream about. Rifi is a follower of instructions no more no less.
2. Hariri was happy to stay in the government. In fact his resurrection started the day Saudi Arabia agreed on Aoun as a President. Hariri was aiming to recover some of his fortune from Lebanese projects/deals. Today, he has lost everything, along with Mohamad Bin Salman.

Great to see you here, Elijah Magnier. Your reporting on Middle Eastern issues is up there with the best. It is a shame we have not more journalists and analysts of your stature and class, as the events we are witnessing currently on an almost daily basis are all game-changers, history in the making…

Excellent comment, _smr. We should indeed see what is happening from a much broader perspective: …’the events we are witnessing currently on an almost daily basis are all game-changers, history in the making…’

Hariri is a tool and not worth minimal consideration. The KSA power base in Lebanon has collapsed and even the local vassals have cut bait.
The war in Syria was meant to create a buffer zone for the zionists against their inevitable collapse. The Iran nuclear – so called deal – is nothing more than cover for protection of the entity from an Iranian onslaught that would liberate Palestine and the ME. Yet another means to buy time.
The war in Lebanon in 2000 and 2006 was the beginning of the end for the entity. The US was heavily involved in Lebanon during both of these actions – yet the super power was not able to secure the position of the iof in Lebanon.
Eleven years later the entity and its US puppet is in a far worse position.
There will be no war against Iran – there will be no attack let alone an invasion by zionist forces. The US simply cannot win against Iran – or even provide the appearance of victory. All of the mercs and of the weapons tossed into the cauldron of Syria have resulted in nothing. However, the alliance of resistance has become much stronger – not just because they defeated the mercs – but because all the Empire of Chaos had left were the mercs.
The Putin game has always been containment – the zionist reactionaries of the other hand thought it wiser to lash out into Syria – using all their money, weapons and mercs but to no avail. Russia entered into Syria not to turn the tide – but rather secure the victory.The SAA, Iran and Hezbollah had demonstrated back in 2011 that Syria would not simply collapse like Libya did.
The crux of the problem in the ME – is the inability of the zionist oligarchy to understand that the resistance will not acquiesce to the dominance of the entity. Even with all the money, military and the rabid propaganda of the western msm the reality of Palestine and the colonial project of the entity cannot be hidden let alone sustained.

The Saker thankfully invariably publishes the topical article I send him very promptly. But because of the weekend, this article had to wait a bit more than 24 hours, and a lot happens in 24 hours these days.

In between the time the article was sent and the time it was published, we heard of the news of senior Saudi officials, including princes and ministers, put under arrest.

If I were to write this same article now, I would not preclude the possibility that Hariri had been lured into Saudi Arabia and conned into submitting his resignation as Lebanon’s PM with a promise of a deal with MBS.

As it stands now, it is possible that Hariri is also under some form of restricted movement; possibly house arrest in Saudi Arabia.

Either way, MBS’s plan to restore the destruction Saudi role, with or without Hariri, has not changed in the last 2-3 days. As for the future of Hariri, we will have to wait and see.

In as far as the recent arrests in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom is witnessing a coup; like no other, but this is a topic for another article.

Very interesting article by GK on the hariri saudi connection and his resignation.

Garrie, of The Duran site, has also been covering the subject closely and has written some good articles. Been meaning to post these, but no time till now. The first one is also substantially included in the second, so I will post the second:

He covers a lot of the near simultaneous events that occurred around the time hariri resigned, possibly showing how this was the coordinated beginning of a new israeloamerican-saudi strategy to replace their failing war against Syria.

But then he takes a look at entirely different possible scenario beginning, something that hasn’t really been looked at in the discussions here. I’ll quote from that section, since with the recent saudi rapprochement with Moscow, I think Garrie might be on to something here.

“2. A Saudi surrender disguised as a provocation

If viewed in isolation, the Hariri resignation appears like a clear Saudi organised attempt to foment discord in Lebanon by provoking Hezbollah, with the aim of weakening the resistance in Syria and opening up Lebanon to the kind of civil crisis which in the past has led to aggressive Israeli invasions and general strife.

However, when the events of yesterday are taken in totality, a different theory springs to mind, one which ought to be taken seriously, even if counter-intuitive at first glance.

After MBS’s ‘great purge’ of highly important figures in the Saudi ‘deep state’, including the billionaire and darling of western mainstream media, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, it is fair to say that Muhammad Bin Salman has taken the first strike against any would-be challengers or political opponents as he continues to consolidate his power, even before formally taking the throne from the elderly King Salman.

This is significant because it is generally unwise to meddle in the affairs of countries abroad, when conducting such a deep and wide purge at home.

This therefore, forces one to consider why the Saudi regime would involve itself in the Hariri affair on the same day as the ‘great purge’?

The answer lies in exploring whether the Hariri ‘purge’ was more for domestic consumption than for international consumption. As a powerful Saudi citizen, one could think of Hariri’s apparently forced resignation as the first Saudi purge of the day, on a day that saw many powerful Saudi citizens dethroned from powerful places in society.

The message to all powerful Saudis, including to Hariri, is that no one is too big to fall at the hands of MBS, even a Saudi citizen who is the Prime Minister in a foreign democracy.

What about the geo-political repercussions?

On the surface, the move will clearly enrage Iran, Hezbollah and to a degree anger Syria while emboldening Israel and extremist Sunni movements in the Arab world including al-Qaeda.

Practically though, Israel is all too aware that Hezbollah is far more powerful today than when it expelled Israel from southern Lebanon in 2006 and al-Qaeda, although making a final push in the Golan Heights with Israeli assistance, is nevertheless a terrorist group on its last legs in the Levant and Iraq.

As for Iran, while Saudi continues to spew predictably anti-Iranian rhetoric, Saudi’s pivot towards Russia and China necessarily prohibits further Saudi aggression against Iran, except for that which is limited to rhetorical statements that will irk Iran and give Russia a headache, but do little more.

MBS sees China and Russia as crucial partners that will help realise his Vision 2030 project to diversify the Saudi economy. This means that Saudi will have to increasingly play by both Russia and China’s rules, which mean abandoning proxy imperial ambitions, abandoning military threats against nearby states and possibly move towards selling energy in the Petroyuan.

Therefore, a radically different explanation for yesterday’s events in Saudi begin to emerge. Perhaps the Hariri ‘resignation’ and the great purge are meant less to encourage Israel and provoke Iran, Syria and Hezbollah than they are events used to send subtle messages to Russia and China, possibly with communiques made behind the scenes to clarify the meaning.

Such a message is summarised as follows: Saudi has surrendered in its attempts to politically influence the Levant and will allow the chips to fall where they may. The Saudi puppet is out of Lebanon and Saudi won’t do anything meaningful to oppose Hezbollah in the post-Hariri era in Lebanon. Instead, Saudi will focus on domestic political changes to pave the way for a more ‘eastern friendly’ MBS regime in Riyadh.

Here, the implied advantage to Russia is that President Michel Aoun will be allowed to form a new government in Beirut that will be more amenable to Russian and consequently Chinese interests in the region, thus giving the eastern superpowers an unbroken chain of partners in the region stretching from Pakistan to Iran, into Iraq and Syria and finishing on the Mediterranean with Lebanon.

In return, it is implied that Russia will continue to resist any US attempts to slow down MBS’ ascent to power.

CONCLUSION:

I am by no means fully convinced that the second scenario is what is in fact developing, but with so much mystery as to what actually is happening it would be irresponsible not to explore such a scenario.

In the end, scenarios one and two may both come into play, just not at the same time. Scenario one is bound to fail in its apparent objectives and thus, Saudi could then pivot to scenario two. This is in my view, the most likely explanation for what is going on. Saudi is engaging in a last ditch provocative move towards Lebanon, Syria and Iran, but this is ultimately a small stick which obscures a larger carrot intended not for Levantines or Iranians, but for Russian and Chinese stomachs.

Today is Nov 15. I got to the same conclusion you did 3-4 days ago; but you said it on the 6th Nov, although I had not read it then! Brilliant analysis, vot tak. Let’s see. The world is changing, and the big picture starts to appear in front of our eyes.

The Duran reports that a Saudi Prince has been killed during his attempted arrest. It appears he is connected to ex-Lebanese PM Hariri. And that the other Prince killed “accidentally” in the plane crash recently is also part of the family branch of the Prince killed in the shootout. It looks like that accident,my not have been one after all. Which lends another possibility to Hariri’s resignation.As a foreign PM,it might be difficult internationally for the Saudis to touch him .But as an “ex-PM” he could be arrested or killed with less of a problem.And if he is closely connected to the purge victims.The Saudi leadership may have wanted to arrest him, now they have their chance.As well as stopping him,as the PM of Lebanon,from giving asylum in Lebanon to some of those to be purged.Its a “tangled web” we are seeing right now.But this situation is showing all the earmarks of a “Night of the Long Knives” nazi style purge in Saudi Arabia.With numerous high placed opponents being arrested and killed.I can’t recall anything quite that openly done in recent Saudi history.This Prince MBS seems to want to consolidate all power in his hands quickly, the bloodier the better.Which of course makes one wonder,what will be the reaction to that ,of the hundreds of other Princes in Saudi Arabia.Will they keep quite and accept it out of fear.Or will they ,also out of fear of being on his list.Strike back in a palace coup of their own.And lastly,his accusing Iran of firing missiles at the Saudis,and threatening war.Is that a cover to distract from his purge.Or is the purge to remove anyone that might oppose him if he goes to war with Iran.From the months of seeing his actions.He appears a very evil Machiavellian character. So we’ll have to wait and see.Events may heat up very fast there.

He is virtually a child, and 100% satrap of the CIA, with neither the intelligence nor street smarts to be doing this on his own. He is a figurehead, no more and no less.

The changes being wrought in Saudi Arabia are being acted out according to a script prepared by the CIA-Safari Club, as leading agents of the Transnational ZIonist Elite, and in particular for the benefit of Anglo-American interests. As US dollar hegemony is unwound new sources of funding must be worked out. The plan, carried forward by the Trump administration under managing control of the Pentagon Triumvirate of McMaster, Kelly and Mathis, and with Rex Tillerson representing the interests of Big Oil, is to use Saudi petroleum to fund all future endeavors, replacing income lost as the US dollar fiat is devolved into an unbreakable SDR for the rich, and easily vanishable crypto-electronic currencies for the rest of us, and all in order to feed multi-trillion dollar per year-plus appetite of a monstrous association of masons and templars.

Nothing is suprising about this consolidation or how it is proceeding. Saudi oil, sold in Yuan or SDRs, it does not matter, will continue to fund the Zionist Beast. I would expect, when all this is completed, your gasoline prices will double and double again. Once the Zionist Deep State is directly funded by oil it will not take long for the controllers of this system to start using it to extort you for their every misadventure and corruption. Some bankers may be displeased, especially those in the City of London, as their power is ever so slightly reduced but ultimately the business of war and mass murder will remain essentially unchanged.

AlfaAlafalfa, I disagree with your opinion about MsS. I lived in Saudi Arabia almost a decade, I knew many of those guys, and their opinion is that he is a very intelligent man. We could say that he lacks experience; but, he can learn fast.

And “all of a sudden” Israel provides full diplomatic support to troubled Saudi

—————-

“The classified embassy cable, written in Hebrew, constitutes the first formal evidence proving that the Saudis and Israelis are deliberately coordinating to escalate the situation in the Middle East.

The explosive classified Israeli cable reveals the following:

On Sunday, just after Lebanese PM Hariri’s shocking resignation, Israel sent a cable to all of its embassies with the request that its diplomats do everything possible to ramp up diplomatic pressure against Hezbollah and Iran.

The cable urged support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

The cable stressed that Iran was engaged in “regional subversion”.

Israeli diplomats were urged to appeal to the “highest officials” within their host countries to attempt to expel Hezbollah from Lebanese government and politics. “”

————

Well, pilgrims, we knew all this, didn’t we? Yes we did! Cast your eye over the import of my post of a couple of days ago.

But! This is confirmation from the very corral of the Red Heifer itself. When the Hebrews lie down with the Saracens, can the end be far away?

For the humorless, I will explain that this citation of Jewish myth is a joke. pl

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