"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Sunday, 26 June 2016

Gasworks

Newstead

Had a snout around Newstead gasworks yesterday, a pleasant area which is seeing a lot of new apartment development.

Newstead Towers are photographed below.

Very hard to gauge from ground level, but if I had to guess, I reckon these are about one third inhabited now.

Shops and eateries are generally quite busy, both during the day and in the evenings.

Sales and marketing teams are out in force. The interest in these new apartments generally appears skewed to buyers of Asian heritage from what I've experienced, though anecdotal evidence can mislead, of course.

It's been fairly well documented that new apartment market is in for a rough ride.

Aussies do love a whinge - as recently as less than three years ago, there was endless complaint about us building too few dwellings - fast forward three years and now it's too many!

Such is the nature of a cycle.

Net overseas migration is way down in Queensland since the heady days through the peak of the mining boom.

Some compensating good news for Queensland is that interstate migration jumped to its fastest rate in 8 years in the December quarter and is surging higher, helping annual population growth to lift from +55,200 in the year to September 2015 to +59,700 in the year to December.

Still completions are running ahead of demand for new housing in the state, with a shade over 38,000 new dwelling completions in 2015.

As far as I can observe, it doesn't seem that there won't be much problem filling these new apartments over time once the construction cycle passes its peak, due to their proximity to the city and entertainment precincts.

Effective 1 July Australia's student visa rules will also be relaxed, allowing primary school students from Asia and their guardians (and possibly families) to come to live in Australia, which will further help to take up the slack.

The most pressing challenge is settlement risk, with banks having pulled up the ladder on writing loans to non-resident buyers.

A huge challenge given how many of these developments are reliant on foreign purchases.