What's the state of shonen manga in Japan? Going by the recent news that Weekly Shonen Jump's circulation has fallen below the 2-million mark - it's not very good... or is there more to the story?

As we've discussed many times before, Shonen Jump has been searching for a title to replace two of its "Big Three" now that Naruto and Bleach have concluded. Until Jump finds its next big thing (i.e. a series that can sell a million+ manga volumes), the magazine's fortunes are steadfastly tied to how One Piece performs (as broken down by YouTube anime expert Super Eyepatch Wolf).

That video was released two weeks ago. Today, we now have a new report from the Japanese Magazine Publishers Association that Jump circulation has fallen below 2 million - a figure they've regularly eclipsed since the '70s. Courtesy of ANN, we also have this handy chart to see how Jump and its two main competitors - Kodansha's Weekly Shonen Magazine andShogakukan's Weekly Shonen Sunday have faired over the last four years.

Period

Weekly Shōnen Magazine

Weekly Shonen Jump

Weekly Shonen Sunday

January-March 2014

1,277,500

2,715,834

461,250

April-June 2014

1,245,417

2,677,500

445,500

July-September 2014

1,211,750

2,665,834

428,417

October-December 2014

1,192,267

2,605,000

411,250

January-March 2015

1,156,059

2,422,500

393,417

April-June 2015

1,127,042

2,395,000

388,417

July-September 2015

1,107,840

2,376,667

369,231

October-December 2015

1,085,110

2,321,667

356,584

January-March 2016

1,038,450

2,238,333

345,667

April-June 2016

1,015,659

2,168,333

369,833

July-September 2016

995,017

2,161,667

330,000

October-December 2016

986,017

2,005,833

323,250

January-March 2017

964,158

1,915,000

319,667

As you can see, even going back as far as the 1Q of 2014, the sales numbers for Weekly Shonen Jump are a far cry from the early '90s, when the magazine regularly sold more than 6 million+ copies per quarter. Obviously, one has to acknowledge the rise of digital e-readers and tablets which have drastically altered the landscape and heavily contributed to the decline in physical Shonen Jump magazines. Plus. the decline afflicting the magazine isn't isolated to just that particular publication, it's industry wide - meaning this data likely speaks more to the discussion of "physical vs digital" readership and not the potential decline of the company.

Likely, if this trend continues it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that Shonen Jump and its ilk go 100% digital.

Another factor would be Japan's declining population, which is also affecting its economy. With a declining demographic, it's possible that shonen manga just might be at risk after all. Truthfully, it's diffiult to gain a clear picture on the shonen manga market as Jump doesn't disclose its digital sales figures. If this decline in print circulation was being met with a surge in digital sales, perhaps there wouldn't be a cause for concern. Until we receive more intel, manga fans around the world can only speculate.

For a great Shonen Jump title that should appeal to Western audiences, we recommend My Hero Academia.

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