The Presidential Election, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Economy May 11-13, 2012

Transcription

1 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Monday, May 14th, :30 pm (ET) The Presidential Election, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Economy May 11-13, 2012 The race for president remains close, but Republican Mitt Romney now has a three-point lead over President Obama, despite positive movement on the economy. 32% say the economy is in good shape the highest percentage since January 2008 but most (67%) still say it s bad. 36% say the economy is improving. While most voters say the President s support of same-sex marriage will not impact their vote, 25% say they are less likely to vote for him because of it. Most Americans favor some type of legal recognition of same-sex relationships, including 38% who support marriage. When asked directly whether same-sex marriage should be legal or not, 42% say it should be, but 51% say it should not. Presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney now has a three-point edge over President Barack Obama (a lead that s within the poll s margin of error) in a head to head match-up. The race was dead even last month. 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Romney if the election were held today, while 43% would back the President. Slightly more are undecided now (7%) compared to last month (3%). Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? Now 4/2012 3/2012 2/2012 1/18/2012 1/9/2012 Barack Obama 43% 46% 47% 48% 45% 45% Mitt Romney In the days after President Obama publicly stated his support for same-sex marriage, more than half of voters say the presidential candidates views on same-sex marriage will have no effect on their vote choice, but 25% are less likely to vote for the President because of his support of same-sex marriage (many of them are Republicans). Fewer -- 16% -- are more likely to back him because if it. 23% of voters say they are more likely to support Romney because of his stance on the issue, while 17% are less likely to vote for him. Impact of Candidate Same-Sex Marriage Views on Vote Choice Obama s support Romney s opposition of same-sex marriage to same-sex marriage More likely 16% 23% Less likely No effect 58 59

2 Among independent voters, whose votes are up for grabs this year, most would be unswayed by either candidate s position on the issue either. Independents: Impact of Candidate Same-Sex Marriage Views on Vote Choice (Among registered voters who are independents) Obama s support Romney s opposition of same-sex marriage to same-sex marriage More likely 14% 20% Less likely No effect Romney now leads the President among independents; they were nearly tied among this group last month. Obama beats Romney among moderates. Both candidates continue to perform well with their political base: the President gets solid support from Democrats and liberals, while Romney is running strong with Republicans and conservatives. More than seven in 10 white evangelicals are backing Romney similar to last month. Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? ---- Now April ---- Obama Romney Obama Romney Total 43% 46 46% 46% Men 42% 45 43% 49 Women 44% 46 49% 43 < Age 45 46% 44 50% 42 Age % 47 43% 49 Reps 5% 91 4% 90 Dems 84% 10 87% 11 Inds 36% 43 41% 42 Liberal 89% 10 82% 16 Moderate 50% 39 55% 35 Conservative 8% 75 17% 73 White evangelicals 20% 74 21% 73 There is skepticism about the President s motivations for publicly supporting same sexmarriage. Two in three Americans think President Obama did so for political reasons; just 24% think he mostly did so because he thinks it is right. Majorities of Republicans and independents say the President s public statement on the issue was politically motivated, while Democrats are more divided. Pres. Obama Publicly Supported Same-Sex Marriage Because All Reps Dems Inds He thinks it is right 24% 8% 42% 20% For political reasons

3 Public Opinion on Same-Sex Unions Most Americans support some type of legal recognition for same-sex couples, although not necessarily through marriage. 38% think they should be allowed to legally marry, and a quarter support civil unions without legal marriage. 33% think there should be no legal recognition for such couples. These views have been consistent for the past few years; prior to that, support for same sex marriage was lower. Same-Sex Couples Now 2/2012 9/2011 4/2010 3/2009 6/2006 7/2005 7/2004 Should be allowed to marry 38% 40% 38% 39% 33% 27% 27% 28% Should be allowed civil unions Should have no legal recognition However, when asked directly whether same sex marriage should be legal, just over half say it should not be. 42% think it should be legal, but more, 51%, say it should not be legal. Views divide along partisan lines: 81% of Republicans think it should not be legal, while 63% of Democrats think it should be legal. Independents are more divided, but tend to think it should not be legal. Same-Sex Marriage Should Be? All Reps Dems Inds Legal 42% 13% 63% 43% Not legal Younger Americans are more apt to support allowing these couples to marry, and more likely to say same-sex marriage should be legal. Views on Same-Sex Relationships by Age Age Age 45+ Same-sex couples: Should be allowed to marry 53% 24% Should be allowed civil unions, but not marry Should have no legal recognition Same-sex marriage should be: Legal 55% 31% Not legal Half the public supports an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would allow marriage only between a man and a woman. Again, views vary according to partisanship. Constitutional Amendment Making Marriage Only Between Man and Woman All Reps Dems Inds Favor 50% 70% 36% 50% Oppose Most support allowing states to decide whether same-sex marriage should be legal or not, and just a third thinks the federal government ought to decide. Republicans and independents think this issue should be decided by state governments, while Democrats are divided.

4 Who Should Decide? All Reps Dems Inds Federal government 32% 27% 43% 27% State governments Majorities of Americans say they have a colleague, close friend or relative who is gay or lesbian (70%), or have a friend or family member in a committed or married same-sex relationship (60%). Those who know someone in a committed same-sex relationship, are more likely to support same-sex marriage, favor making it legal, and oppose a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. The Economy Remains the Top Issue for Voters While the issue of same-sex marriage may be dominating much of the current political discussion, the economy remains the most important issue to voters in the Presidential election. When asked to choose from a list of six issues, 62% pick the economy and jobs as most important in their vote for President. The budget deficit is a distant second (11%), followed by health care (9%). Only 7% pick same-sex marriage, but that issue does come out ahead of foreign policy (4%) and immigration (2%). Most Important Issue in the Presidential Election Economy and jobs 62% Federal budget deficit 11 Health care 9 Same-sex marriage 7 Foreign policy 4 Immigration 2 Among voters who choose the economy as the most important issue in their vote, 44% pick health care as their second most important issue, followed by the budget deficit with 28%. Only 3% of these voters choose same-sex marriage. 32% of Americans now think the economy is in good shape, up slightly from last month, when 27% said that. However more than twice as many, 67%, think it is bad. This is the most positive Americans have been about the economy since January Rating the Economy Now 4/2012 3/2012 1/2012 1/2008 Good 32% 27% 22% 21% 38% Bad % think the economy is improving, the highest that number has been in two years. 24% think it is getting worse. Economy is Now 4/2012 3/2012 1/2012 9/2011 4/2011 1/2011 9/2010 4/2010 Getting better 36% 33% 30% 28% 12% 23% 30% 22% 41% Getting worse Staying the same

5 The President The President s job approval rating in this poll is 50%, while 48% disapprove. With the exception of just after the killing of Osama bin Laden, 50% is the highest his approval rating has been in the last two years. President Obama s Job Approval Rating Now 4/2012 2/2012 1/2012 5/ /2010 4/2010 Approve 50% 48% 50% 47% 57% 45% 51% Disapprove Overall opinions of both the presidential candidates are not especially positive, and similar to what they were last month. Voters are divided in their views of President Obama, while opinions of Romney are more negative than positive. Many voters continue to be undecided about Romney or haven t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Overall Views of the Candidates Obama Romney Now April Now April Favorable 45% 42% 31% 29% Unfavorable Undecided Haven t heard enough This poll was conducted by telephone on May 11-13, 2012 among 615 adults nationwide, including 562 registered voters, who were first interviewed for a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted April 13-17, Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

6 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL The Presidential Election, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Economy May 11-13, 2012 rq1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Apr12a % % % % % Approve Disapprove DK/NA rq2 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA rq20 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA rq3 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Obama Romney Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/no answer rq4 In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you - 1. foreign policy, 2. the economy and jobs, 3. health care, 4. immigration, 5. the federal budget deficit, 6. same-sex marriage or 7. something else? The economy and jobs The federal budget deficit Health care Same-sex marriage Foreign policy Immigration Something else DK/NA

7 rq5 And which one of the following issues will be the next most important to you in deciding who you would like to see elected President this year - 1. foreign policy, 2. the economy and jobs, 3. health care, 4. immigration, 5. the federal budget deficit, 6. same-sex marriage or 7. something else? * REGISTERED VOTERS WHO PICKED ECONOMY IN RQ4 * % Health care 44 The federal budget deficit 28 Foreign policy 9 The economy and jobs 6 Immigration 5 Same-sex marriage 3 Something else 4 DK/NA 1 rq6 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Apr12a % % % % % Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused rq7 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused rq8 Which comes closest to your view? 1. Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry., 2. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry., or 3.There should be no legal recognition of a gay ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Allowed to legally marry Allowed to form civil unions No legal recognition DK/NA rq9 BLANK

8 rq10 Does Barack Obama's support of same-sex marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or wouldn't it affect how you will vote one way or another? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % More likely Less likely No effect DK/NA rq11 Does Mitt Romney's opposition to same-sex marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or wouldn't it affect how you will vote one way or another? More likely Less likely No effect DK/NA rq12 Do you think that Barack Obama publicly supported same-sex marriage mostly because he thinks it is right, or mostly for political reasons? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** What is right Political reasons Both equally (vol.) DK/NA rq13 If you had to decide, do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry? Legal Not legal DK/NA rq14 Would you favor or oppose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would allow marriage only between a man and a woman? May04a % Favor Oppose DK/NA rq15 Do you think laws regarding whether same-sex marriage is legal or not should be determined by the federal government or left to each individual state government to decide? Federal government State governments Both (vol.) DK/NA

9 rq16-19 BLANK rq21 Do you have a work colleague, close friend, or relative who is gay or lesbian? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind May10c % % % % % Yes No I am (vol.) DK/NA rq22 Do you have a gay or lesbian friend or family member who is married or in a committed same-sex relationship, or not? *HAVE GAY COLLEAGUE, FRIEND, OR RELATIVE* Yes No I am gay/committed (vol.) DK/NA Unweighted Total Respondents 615 Weighted Total Republicans (25%) Total Democrats (34%) Total Independents (41%) Total Registered Voters Reg. Voters Republicans (30%) Reg. Voters Democrats (36%) Reg. Voters Independents (34%)

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