Weekend Predictions: Think or Swim

June 19th, 2014

There are two wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to be monster hits. Think Like a Man Too could eventually get to $100 million, while Jersey Boys might become a midlevel hit, but no more than that. There are a couple of holdovers that should be very big players at the box office, as both How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street will earn close to $30 million over the next three days. On the other hand, this weekend last year there were two monster hits, Monster University and World War Z, as well as a holdover, Man of Steel, that will make more than either of the two new releases this year will make. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.

Think Like a Man Too is the follow-up to Think Like a Man, a film that made more than $90 million on a $12 million budget. It is no surprise that the film earned a sequel. This film should start out faster, but it likely won't have as strong of legs for two reasons. Firstly, sequels almost never have better legs than the original film. Secondly, this film's reviews are much better than the original film's reviews were. On the high end, it earns more than $40 million. On the low end, it barely matches the original. I'm going with $38 million.

Both How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street should earn about $30 million over the weekend. 22 Jump Street has an advantage and should pull in $31 million leaping past $100 million in the process. This will leave it about a week away from topping the original's box office finale.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 should be right behind with $29 million. This won't be enough to get to the century mark over the weekend, but it will be close. Unfortunately, it won't live up to the first film, which is a shame because both films are amazing.

Jersey Boys is the latest from Clint Eastwood; however, it doesn't live up to his previous Oscar-contenders in terms of critical response. Additionally, while The Four Seasons is a Hall of Fame musical group, their peak was in the 1960s. It is very likely most moviegoers now don't know much about the group. Given Clint Eastwood's involvement and since the reviews are flirting with the 60% level, it likely won't bomb. That said, fourth place is very likely the best it can hope for. Maybe it will come close to $20 million, but $15 million is probably a safer bet.

Maleficent should round out the top five with just over $10 million, although Edge of Tomorrow should be right behind with just under $10 million. For the former, this will be enough to keep it on pace for $200 million. For the latter, it won't really matter, as it won't earn anywhere near what it cost to make.