New York leading indicator up for second straight month

The RBJ/e-forecasting.com New York Leading Economic Indicator increased in September to a reading of 111.7 on a scale where the year 2000 equals 100.

The indicator, which increased in August after a flat reading in July, is produced by the private forecasting service in partnership with the Rochester Business Journal.

Seven of the 11 components that make up the New York Leading Indicator were positive contributors in September:

building permits,

regional consumer expectations,

national stock prices,

interest rate spread,

employment barometer,

international visitors future demand and

national vacation barometer.

Four of the 11 components had a negative or zero contribution to the indicator in September:

unemployment claims,

weekly hours in manufacturing,

exports of manufactures and

new orders in manufacturing.

The six-month growth rate of the New York Leading Indicator in September was 1.1 percent, the same as in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

In coming months, improvement in export activity could prove difficult. The latest trade numbers show that shipments abroad from New York dropped 6.7 percent in August after a decrease of 8.5 percent in July.

New York exports totaled $5.7 billion in August, a 17.7 percent decline compared with August 2011. Exports of manufactured goods, which accounted for 58 percent of the total this August, were down nearly 20 percent from a year earlier.

Exports of non-manufactured goods slid 5.5 percent in August to $2.4 billion.

The International Monetary Fund predicts the volume of international trade will slow through the remainder of 2012, then accelerate modestly in 2013.

Evangelos Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm e-forecasting.com. Simos can be reached at eosimos@e-forecasting.com.11/16/12 (c) 2012 Rochester Business Journal. To obtain permission to reprint this article, call 585-546-8303 or email service@rbj.net.