Theoretical research in earthquake prediction and identification of zones of high seismic potential

Dettagli del progetto

Costo totale:

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CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Obiettivo

To undertake theoretical research in the long-to-short termprediction of earthquakes, in both deterministic andprobabilistic conceptions, with regard to place, size and time ofstrong earthquakes, and to contribute to seismic hazardreduction. To identify possible zones of seismic potential forfuture large earthquakes using historical and modern data and tostudy the sociological response to earthquake occurrence.

Analysis of mathematical models and the simulation of earthquakeoccurrence with stochastic processes and statistical methods.Relevance of dynamics and seismicity features for prediction,analysis of specific maps, and possible criteria for space andtime predictions from short to long term approaches. Specificmethodologies for the complex tectonic setting and diffuseseismicity in and around EC countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal,Azores-Gibraltar, Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas) will bedeveloped.

Updating and revisions of earthquake database and extraction ofhistorical and recent information for prediction of space timeand magnitude with the interpretation of tectonics of the areas.Study of rupture process of larger earthquakes, moment rates,seismic activity rates and b- values will be made. Criticalaspects and limitations of our actual knowledge about earthquakeprediction will be analyzed. Preparation of maps of seismicityand seismic gaps for possible large earthquakes in the futurewill be attempted.

The collective behaviour of people and memory of past events, andthe sociological response to earthquake occurrence, particularlyof destructive earthquakes, will provide new information forearthquake countermeasures.