Saturday, October 31, 2009

NY-23 Polling Odyssey

So this morning around 10 AM I started up our NY-23 poll and after a few hundred interviews it appeared that Doug Hoffman was now running away withit-unweighted numbers showed him at 45% to 26% for Bill Owens and 17% for Dede Scozzafava.

Then came the news that Scozzafava was suspending her campaign. My first inclination was to just keep running the poll as is, but I stopped it and thought about it, and now for the rest of the weekend the first question will still provide Scozzafava as an option but also note that she's suspended her campaign, although her name will still be on the ballot.

I'm not going to throw away the first set of interviews, but we'll provide a crosstab for when people got surveyed. I expect Hoffman will win easily now, but if our early numbers were any indication what Scozzafava did doesn't make much difference- he was going to win easily with or without her in the race.

I should also note that the poll included two way races between all three of the candidates as well so we will have full straight up Owens-Hoffman data for whatever that's worth.

8 comments:

I have to wonder about the huge discrepancy in Obama apporoval in NY-23 between you and Siena. They have him at 59% approval, but you show him with a net negative approval.

The results of the congressional race are always wildly varying with both Siena and R2000. I find it hard to believe that there has been so much change in just one or two days. Maybe NY-23 isn't a good subject for IVR polling? Some rural districts have proven problematic for IVR polls in the past.

I live in the 23rd. Your poll results are visually confirmed by driving through the communities. Two weeks ago there was a modest sprinkling of Scozzafava yard signs and yesterday there were hundreds of Hoffman signs. I only saw one Scozzafava yard sign during my drive through four communities.

The local voters I speak with are resentful that the Repub. party disregarded them enough to nominate a candidate with positions to the left of the democrat. I think Hoffman reflects the conservative values of the local republicans, but his strong showing reflects a voter rebellion toward the party.

I suspect there is a below-the-radar anger in the non-urban Northeast, shall we call it "moose land" regarding the Democrats and President Obama; there is something with people connected to the land and nature that limits their ability to be hoodwinked by socialism masquerading as "reform."

Absolutley Hoffman will win. It was a stupid move for party bosses to pick a candidate through negotiation with GOP officers and not a poll of their members.

When the details about candidates began to be realized, Dede was a redundant version of Owens so her candidacy was unnecessary. The voters were already moving toward Hoffman before the national scrutiny. Fred and Sarah just pushed it along.

grew up in 23rd. this is not the bible thumping, baptist south. Palin is widely regarded as dangerous. so her endorsement will backfire. none of these people would interrupt a town hall meeting with shouting. they are republican by nature, loved mchugh - yet they believe in personal freedom on social issues. Owens will win.