为何国家不能通过增印钞票来偿还债务

复杂世界 ･ wonderwhy

你是否曾好奇为何国家不能Have you ever wondered why countries can’t just 增印钞票以偿还国家债务print more money to off their debts 支助无家可归者 解决失业问题及与此有关的任何问题or to feed the homeless or fix unemployment, or any other issue for that matter. 现在 这也许看起来像是一个非常愚蠢的问题Now, this may seem like a rather silly question, 但我想这或许也是那些but I think it may be one of those questions 人们不好意思开口提问的问题之一people might be a bit too embarrassed to ask, 但还是有不少人对此疑惑不解but there’s no shortage of people wondering. 其答案 一言以蔽之 就是通货膨胀The short answer can be summed up in just one word… inflation. 通货膨胀被定义为Inflation is defined as “…” 货币供应量增多所引起的 货币贬值和物价持续普遍显著上涨 的经济现象 我现在用人话来解释But I’ll get to that… 首先 得弄清货币究竟是什么first though, we need to establish exactly what money… is. 这似乎显而易见 但你需要明白的是this may seem obvious, but something you need to understand is that 货币没有内在价值money has absolutely no… intrinsic value. 换句话说What that means is that 货币自身没有实际价值money in itself has no actual value, 只有货币能够用来购买东西时 它才会被认为是有价值的it’s only considered valuable because it can buy things, 但如果你被困于荒岛 那么货币就毫无用处but if you were stranded on a desert island, money would be totally useless. 只有当我们相信货币有价值时它才具有价值Money only has value because we believe it has value. 这就是所谓的仙子效应This is called the Tinkerbell Effect, 这是我从Vsauce发布的视频中了解到的something I learned about from Vsauce. 仙子效应是指The Tinkerbell Effect is used to describe something 某一事物之所以存在 是因为我们相信它存在that only exists because we believe it exists. 这对货币同样适用 或许说不定And this is the case with money. Hypothetically speaking, 当人们突然开始认为货币没有价值时if people suddenly started to believe that money had no value, 货币也就没有任何价值可言了it wouldn’t have any value. 当然 事实并非总是如此Of course, it wasn’t always this way, 货币的出现已经有几千年了money has been around for millennia, 货币最早被使用时是以商品形式存在的and when it was first used it was in the form of commodity money. 用来交易的商品媒介都具有实际价值和用途Things were traded that had actual value and uses, 比如盐 香料 马匹和武器like salt, spices, horses or weapons, 及诸如金银这类贵重金属as well as this precious metals such as gold as silver, 严格意义上讲 它们也没有任何内在价值which technically don’t have any intrinsic value either, 但因其稀有性 金银被普遍接受作为货币使用but due to their raredity they are almost accepted universally as currency. 后来出现了代用货币Then we have representative money. 由于随身携带商品不便 代用纸币有了存在的意义Since cartying around everything you own can be difficult, representative money makes more sense. 你把黄金交给银行 银行替你保管它You give your gold to a bank and they keep it safe for you, 作为依据 银行会给你一张收据and in return they give you a piece of paper 以证明黄金为你所有acknowledging that you own that gold 这些收据因而可以用作货币These pieces of paper can therefore used as money 因为任何人都可用它来随时赎回黄金as anyone can go and redeem the gold at any time. 但如今 几乎所有国家都使用法定货币But today, almost every country in the world uses fiat money. 法定货币要求人们对政府有信心和信任Fiat money requires faith and trust in the government 相信政府发行的货币会有价值that their money will have value 我们以一个相对年轻的国家为例If we use a relatively young country as an example, 200年间 美国经历了三次货币体系调整the United States has gone through all three monetary systems within 200 years. 1792年 美国停止使用欧洲货币In 1792, when the US stopped using European money. 《1792铸币法》确定美元的流通The Coinage Act of 1792 brought the inception of the US dollar. 起初美元以实物货币的形式存在The US dollar was originally in the form of commodity money 如金币 银币和铜币in the form of gold, silver and copper coins. 货币都是由黄金 白银和铜制成The coins were actually made from real gold, silver and copper, 这些金属货币的自身价值and the value of the metal that made the coins 与其票面价值一致were exactly equal to their face value. 美国通过1900年的《金本位法》确立了金本位制The country then moved onto a mixture of commodity 代替了实物货币与代用货币同时流通的货币制度and representative money with the 1900 Gold Standard Act. 美国政府发行美元钞票The government issued dollar bills 无论何时 美元都可兑换成黄金which could be exchanged for gold at any time 金本位制是一种具有代表性的货币制度Gold Standard is a type of representative money 当时很多国家都实行金本位制that many countries used at the time. 这是一种有效准确计算各国汇率的方法This was an effective way to accurately calculate the exchange rate between countries 例如 1克黄金兑换1英镑For example, if one gram of gold costs £1 in Britain 或1.5美元and $ 1.50 in America, 很容易算出 1英镑相当于1.5美元then you can easily deduce that £1 equals $ 1.50. 金币不再流通 银币也被排除了Gold coins were discontinued 最终实物货币完全消失effectively ending commodity money. 1971年 理查德•尼克松官方声明废除金本位制In 1971, Richard Nixon officially abandoned the Gold Standard 美国开始使用无锚货币and the US moved onto fiat money. 因此 如今货币不再依靠黄金So today money isn’t back by gold 或任何实物的价值or anything else of value for that matter. 再回到眼下的问题So back to the question at hand; 基础经济学表明 供应量的增加basic economics tells us that an increase in supply, 会导致需求量降低 进而引起物价下跌results in a fall in demand and therefore a fall in price. 因此 经济体中流通的货币越多So the more money in the economy, 货币的单位价值量就越低the lower the value of each dollar. 这意味着各国可以用本国货币购买更多的美元Meaning other countries can purchase more dollars in exchange for their currency. 第二幅供求图表显示了A second supply and demand graph shows 为什么增印钞票会引起物价上涨why this leads to a rise in prices. 过量的货币导致商品服务需求曲线发生变化More money in the economy causes a shift in the demand curve for goods and services, 然而由于这与经济产量增长不相协调but since this isn’t matched by in increase in economic output, 价格必然上涨prices must rise. 这样说吧 如果政府发行一百万钞票Look at it this way, if the government printed 并发放到每一个公民手中a million dollars and posted it to everyone in the country, 结果人人都跑去购买跑车……causing everyone to go out to buy a sports cars… 而国内的跑车数量有限but there’s only a finite number of sports cars in the country. 因此合理的解决办法就是提高跑车的销售价格so the logical thing to do is to increase the price of a sports car. 假使我们用类推法论证以下情况If we use an analogy to demonstrate this: 设想四个人身处荒岛imagine there’s 4 people on a desert island, 每人各有10块水果they each have 10 pieces of fruit each. 所有水果都是等价的All fruits are considered equal in value. 现在假设他们发现一整片森林全是苹果树Now imagine they discover a whole forest of apple trees. 因为有了更多的苹果The nominal value of apples has increased 苹果名义上的总价值增多because there’s more of them, 但由于供应量增加but the actual value of an apple has gone down 苹果的实际的单位价值却降低了due to an increase in supply. 所以 现在10只苹果才能换1只香蕉Therefore it now costs 10 apples for 1 banana 因为苹果的需求量小 而香蕉的需求量大since demand for apples is low, but high for bananas. 需要阐明的是 在这次推理中Just to clarify, in this analogy, 人们代表着不同的国家the people represent different countries, 水果代表着各国的货币 苹果树则是发行的货币the fruits their respective currency, and the apples tree is the printed money. 不仅是因为经济原理But it’s not only because of economic theory 我们才知道印刷过量的钞票是不明智的that we know printing too much money is bad idea, 历史上有些例子也可以阐明这一点there’s several examples throughoutrecent history. 最近的一个例子就是The most recently example is Zimbabwe, who, 2008年 津巴布韦由于印刷钞票遭受了极其严重的通货膨胀in 2008, suffered extremely high inflation due to printing money. 这是总统罗伯特•穆加比的错误决策This was the result of some awful decisions 所造成的后果by the president Robert Mugabe. 当国家经济恶化时When the economy took a turn for the worse, 穆加比政府增印钞票以支付政府开销Mugabe printed more money to pay government expenditure. 结果 通货膨胀越发严重This caused inflation to skyrocket and 2008年11月中旬 通货膨胀达到顶峰in mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe’s inflation peaked at… 等等 先缓一缓actually wait hold on a second, 首先 这里需要提供一些背景知识first I need to provide some context. 美国的通货膨胀率约为2%Inflation in the United States is around 2 %, 经济学家一致认为通货膨胀率economists generally agree that inflation 在1-3%之间最佳level around 1-3% are optimum. 如今 发达国家通胀率在0-5%之间First-world countries’ inflation rates today range from 0-5 %. 如果一国通货通胀率超过50%A country is said to have enter hyperinflation 我们称其进入恶性通货膨胀when their inflation levels exceed 50 %. 要知道 津巴布韦的通货膨胀率在顶峰时期So, with that in mind, Zimbabwe’s inflation, at its peak, 达到了百分之……6.5乘一千的七次方reached… 6.5… sextillion %. 换言之 这一数字有22位Or to put it another way… that number has 22 digits. 情况非常糟糕以至于物价每天都成倍增长It got so bad that prices doubled every 24 hours. 政府试图解决这一问题The government tried to solve the problem 不断地增印面值越来越高的钞票by printing more and more money with higher and higher denominations. 他们还不断往数字末尾加0They also kept knocking zeroes off the end 对津巴韦布货币进行3次重新估价by re-valuing the Zimbabwean dollar 3 times, 并依据四种不同的国际标准码发印了四种不同的货币going through 4 different types of currency with 4 different ISO codes. 最终确定面值前 津巴布韦政府就已印发了百万亿的钞票Before the final re-denomination, they were printing 100 trillion dollar bills. 毫不夸张地说 人们要用一手推车的钱去买一根面包People were literally using wheelbarrows full of cash to buy a loaf of bread. 政府一度甚至声称通胀是非法的The government even made inflation illegal at one point 也确有人因涨价一事而被逮捕and people were actually arrested for raising prices. 2009年 政府停止流通津巴布韦币In 2009, the Zimbabwean dollar was abandoned 直到如今 他们仍没有本国货币and to this day they still have no national currency, 当地人民使用their people use currencies such as 美元 英镑及欧元the US dollar, the Pound Sterling, andthe Euro. 在恶性通货膨胀之前 第一批津巴布韦币Before the hyperinflation, the first 价值约为1.25美元Zimbabwean dollar was worth about 1.25 US dollars. 如果一张100万亿面额的津巴布韦纸币If that 100 trillion dollar bill 按这一汇率兑换的话was worth that exchange rate, 这张钞票的价值就超过that single bill would be worth more money than there 全世界所有钞票的总额了……而且是两倍is in the entire world… twice. 虽然这很荒谬可笑 But as ridiculous as this was, 但这也只被认为是历史上第二糟糕的通货膨胀 this is only considered to be the second worst inflation in history, 不及1946年匈牙利的通货膨胀after Hungary in 1946. 虽然津巴布韦通货膨胀于2008年11月中旬达到顶峰Although Zimbabwe’s inflation peaked in Mid-November of 2008, 他们总的月度最高通货膨胀率为their overall highest monthly inflation 百分之796亿was 79.6 billion %, 而匈牙利月度最高通胀率发生在1946年7月whereas Hungary’s highest monthly inflation which took place in July, 1946 达到了百分之41.9乘以百万之四次方was 41.9 quadrillion %. 物价每15小时就翻一倍With prices doubling every 15 hours. 客观来看To put that into perspective, 一国正常通胀率在3%左右a country with a healthy inflation level of around 3 %, 物价每隔23年才增长一倍prices double every 23 years. 匈牙利货币称为辨戈Their currency was called the pengo, and as 通货膨胀加剧时 简称为十亿辨戈inflation rose, the bil-pengo: short for billion pengo. 短期内 还曾是万亿级辨戈Which is actually one trillion pengo on the short-scale. 匈牙利不但有着月度最高通货膨胀率的记录As well as the record for the highest monthly inflation, 而且还保持着Hungary also holds the record 有史以来发行的最高面值钞票的记录for the highest denomination banknote ever issued 即面值为十亿的辨戈钞票– the 100 million bil-pengo note. 是为100乘以百万的三次方(ie – 100 million billion, or 100 quintillion). 短期内为1垓(1后面跟二十个0)辨戈which is 100 quintillion pengo on the short-scale. 曾印刷了面值为百亿的辨戈钞票 但并未发行流通1 milliard bil-pengo were printed but never issued. 1941年 辨戈兑美元的汇率比In 1941, the exchange rate was 约为5比1about 5 pengo to 1 US dollar. 1946年 当辨戈停止流通时In 1946, when the currency was discontinued, 情况越发失控things had gotten so out of hand 假使你拿着整个国家内的每一张钞票that if you took every single banknote 它们的总价值为in the entire county, they would have a total value… 十分之一美分of one tenth… of a US penny. 随后匈牙利改用福林Hungary then switched to the forint, 辨戈对福林的兑换率为4乘以10的29次方比1where 1 forint equalled 400 octillion pengos. 这一数字有29个零That number has 29 zeroes. 所以 这就是政府不能仅靠印发钞票以抵消政府债务的原因So that’s why government can’t just print money to pay off their debts, 但还没有结束it does not end well. 同样重要的是准确理解It’s also important to understand exactly 国家债务是什么what national debt is. 国家债务比个人债务复杂得多National debt is muchmore complicated than personal debt. 并不是欠别人钱那么简单It isn’t simply a case of you owe people money’. 以政府债务最高国Take the country with the highest National Debt 美国为例– the United States, 其债务高达17万亿美元 that currently has around 17 trillion dollars of debt, 你或许知道美国最大的债权国是中国and you’re probably aware the country holds most US debt is China. 虽然事实如此 但在一定程度存在误解Although that is true, it’s somewhat misleading. 中国的债权只占总债权的8%左右Of the total debt, China onlyhas about 8%. 实际上 大部分债权Most of the debt is actually 由美国政府自己owned by the United States government itself, 美国社会保障署 或美联储等机构所持有by organisations such as Social Security or the Federal Reserve. 除此之外 还有30%为美国公民持有On top of this, a further 30% is owned by US citizens. 即使17万亿中8%仍旧是是一笔大数目And even though 8 % of 17 trillion is still a lot, 中国也不可能踢开白宫的大门China can’t just knock on the door of the White House 要求其偿还1.2万亿美元and demand 1.2 trillion dollars. 这并不会凑效It doesn’t work like that. 美国财政部的主要应对方案是发行长期国债Basically, the US Department of the Treasury issue treasury bonds. 你可购买这些债券You can buy these bonds 每年政府会支付债券利息and the government will pay you interest on that bond every year, then, 一旦债权到期once the bonds have matured, 他们会赎回债券 they’ll buy the treasury bonds back from you. 当下 如果一国陷入金融危机Now, if a country gets into financial trouble, 就可能不得不拖欠债务it may have to default on its debt, which 这基本上意味着你将拿不回自己的钱basically means you won’t get your money back. 但通常美国被认为是毫无投资风险的国家But the US is generally considered an extremely risk-free investment 因为美元是世界上使用最广泛 最值得信赖的货币because the US dollar is the most widely used and the most trustworthy currency in the world 美国宪法甚至明文规定It’s even written into the Constitution that 美国不会拖欠其债务the United States cannot default on its debt. 我留给大家最后这个观点I’ll leave you with this final thought and 以及我所认为可能是最佳的方法来总结what I think is possibly the best way to sum up 为何政府不能无限印发钞票why governments can’t just print off unlimited amounts of money？ 要是钱长在树上” If money grew on trees, 它的价值就会和树叶一样it would be as valuable as leaves” 谢谢观看Thanks for watching!