Latest Super Tuesday polls give Donald Trump the lead in most states

February 29, 2016

The GOP primary race may be effectively decided tomorrow when 12 states cast their votes for the Republican Party presidential nominee. Donald Trump has momentum heading into Super Tuesday after winning New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada in the previous weeks. If Trump wins a majority of the 12 states he could build an insurmountable lead. Here is the current state of the race and most recent polls released in the last 48 hours from and CNN/ORC, CBS News/YouGov, and NBC/Wall Street Journal. There is also a projection of how many delegates each candidate will win.

In future states the Republican Party allows delegates to be split up in one of three ways. There is a winner take all method, in which the first place finisher takes all the delegates for a given state no matter how small the margin of victory. There is a proportional method in which delegates are awarded proportionally based on what percentage of the vote each candidate received. However, a candidate in a proportional state may earn no delegates if they do not meet a certain threshold percent (10 percent for example) of the overall vote in the state. Proportional states also often allow a candidate to win all the state’s delegates if they exceed 50 percent of the vote. Finally, some states have a “hybrid” system where a candidate can win some delegates according to how they perform in congressional districts.

A Real Clear Politics average of the five most recent polls has Trump at 35.6 percent nationally, compared 19.8 percent for Cruz, 17.4 percent for Rubio, 9.0 percent for John Kasich, and and 8.8 percent for Ben Carson. A new CNN/ORC poll released today has Trump at 49 percent support nationally, compared to 20 percent for Ted Cruz and 17 percent for Marco Rubio. That poll was conducted from February 24th to February 27th, which mean smost of the sample was taken after the most recent Republican debate. However, it should be noted that the poll has a very small sample (427 registered Republicans) and a large margin of error (+/-5 percentage points).

Analysis: The biggest prize of Super Tuesday will be Texas with its 172 delegates. Texas awards delegates on a proportional basis, Rubio is projected to miss the cutoff as Cruz and Trump make a big push in Texas. Trump could effectively eliminate Cruz with a win in Texas, so expect Cruz to put as many resources as possible into defending his home turf. Meanwhile, Trump can afford to lose Texas and still make up for it with victories in other states as seen below. Two new polls came out in Texas yesterday. First, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Cruz at 39 percent, Trump at 26 percent, and Rubio at 16 percent. The CBS News/YouGov poll cited above has a more recent sample and has Cruz at 42 percent and Trump at 31 percent.

Analysis: The second biggest prize on Super Tuesday is Georgia. The most recent polls and RCP average have Trump winning there, and he will likely get a bump from his victories in South Carolina and Nevada. The most recent poll from CBS News/YouGov shows Trump with 40 percent support compared to 29 percent for Cruz and 22 percent for Rubio. This would be very bad news for Rubio if he finished third in the two biggest states on Super Tuesday.

Analysis: Tennessee is harder to predict since the most recent poll from the state was released last November. Cruz will likely benefit from the large evangelical population in the state, but as shown in South Carolina and Nevada Trump is also able to attract a large percentage of the evangelical vote. Based on national polling and the momentum factor Trump is given most of the state’s delegates. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Trump going over 40 percent in the state with Cruz and Rubio trailing by at least 18 points.

Analysis: Rubio appears to be making gains in Alabama according to the most recent poll from Opinion Savvy. In the current projection everyone but Trump and Rubio miss the threshold for delegates. Trump wins the state and Rubio earns a decent amount of delegates by placing in second.

Analysis: Virginia has the lowest threshold to obtain delegates which will benefit candidates like Kasich and Carson who are getting low percentages in most states now. In the two most recent polls Trump tops 40 percent in the state and Rubio is trailing by double digits. Trump is given the most delegates based on those numbers. Rubio will likely make a strong push in Virginia since it contains more moderate Republicans than other states. I

Analysis: Once again Trump is given this state based on the latest polling and likely bump he will get from his wins in South Carolina and Nevada. Cruz will likely devote many resources here since Oklahoma is a neighboring state to his home state of Texas, and since Oklahoma contains many evangelical voters. Rubio will have a really hard time competing in Oklahoma.

Analysis: The electorate Massachusetts really fits Trump well which shows in the most recent poll from Emerson College. Trump will likely win the state in the same way he won New Hampshire, but maybe by an even larger margin. The most recent poll from Suffolk University has Trump leading by a wide margin. Significantly, this polls included a sample after the most recent debate, and saw little change in Trump’s number pre-debate compared to post-debate.

Analysis: Arkansas probably represents the best hope for Ted Cruz outside of Texas. The state has a large evangelical base and neighbors Texas. The most recent polling has Cruz ahead of Trump, but that poll was taken before Trump won South Carolina and Nevada. In this projection Cruz and Trump essentially tie in Arkansas and Rubio places third.

Analysis: Minnesota represents Rubio best chance to win a state on Super Tuesday given its relatively small evangelical population and larger proportion of moderate voters. The most recent poll has Rubio leading, but it is an older poll that fails to take into account any momentum Trump gained from wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. trump is given the state based on his national poll standing, but the projection is less reliable given the lack of recent state polling.

Analysis: There is a lack of recent polling from Alaska but the polling that does exist shows Trump leading in January. Since then Trump has probably only increased his lead, and is given a majority of the state’s delegates in this projection.

Analysis: Trump is winning this state big in the most recent poll and will probably win the state by a large margin like he did in New Hampshire. In fact, given Trump’s recent victories, he is projected to exceed 50 percent in Vermont and win all the state delegates.

Conclusion and Totals

The recent polls show Trump gaining momentum if anything, topping 40 percent in most polls. It will be interesting to see how the debate from last week affects these numbers as most of the samples include little post-debate respondents. In addition, none of these polls take account of Trump’s most recent controversial comments regarding the KKK.

Still, one cannot ignore Trump’s advantage in the polls and the momentum he has going into tomorrow. At the end of Super Tuesday this projection has Cruz winning one state (Texas) and possibly one more (Arkansas). Trump will undoubtedly win six states (Georgia, Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska, and Vermont) and likely win three more (Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Arkansas). Rubio has an outside shot at winning two states (Minnesota and Virginia), but is probably an underdog even in those states. The delegate totals after Super Tuesday will put Trump well ahead of the other candidates, and well positioned to take the Republican Party nomination.