The NFL’s Divisional Round Gave Us A Few Near-Upsets — And One Certified Mega-Upset

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): Well, that was quite a weekend. For a hot second on Sunday, it looked like we would lose both of the FiveThirtyEight Super Bowl favorites in one round … but the Chiefs came roaring back, so we only lost our one overwhelming favorite. Welp.

joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): I can confirm that I felt this level of shock.

Salfino (Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight contributor): The Ravens had such bad/unlucky offensive efficiency. They scored 12 points on over 500 yards of offense, becoming just the second home team in playoff history to gain 500 yards and lose. The Steelers did it in the 2017 season, in a loss to Jacksonville, but they scored more than 40 points. And only two teams since the merger (in the regular season or playoffs) gained over 500 yards and scored fewer points than the Ravens — the Bucs last year and the 1986 Niners.

neil: That’s what happens when you turn it over three times and fail on fourth down four more times.

Salfino: Yes, those fourth-down plays are basically turnovers.

joshua.hermsmeyer: In the regular season, the Ravens averaged 1.4 expected points added per play on fourth downs. Against the Titans: -2.58. And the Titans capitalized on those fourth-down defensive holds in a very big way.

sara.ziegler: It was pretty amazing that the Titans were able to capitalize on every single mistake the Ravens made.

joshua.hermsmeyer: It was a bad day for doing the analytically sound thing.

sara.ziegler: And that’s the key point: They were RIGHT to go for it on those fourth downs, right?

Salfino: Tennessee is trying to make us think red-zone scoring efficiency isn’t random. The Titans were 3-for-3 on Saturday, 76 percent for the regular season and 8-for-8 in their last three games (spanning Week 17 and the playoffs).

joshua.hermsmeyer: I don’t blame folks for making fun of analytics after this game — it’s a fun target, for sure. But if your takeaway was that fourth downs got owned or that somehow passing was shown to be fraudulent in the playoffs, I’m not sure which teams you thought you were watching.

The Ravens were the best rushing team in the league in the regular season.

Salfino: Do you think that Lamar Jackson was pressing or just happened to play relatively poorly? I think he was pressing given his problems throwing a spiral. It seemed like he was choking the football; the ball just was not coming out his hand like it should.

neil: He certainly didn’t seem like himself once he had to try to pass his way out of that deficit.

Salfino: Should they have tried to play out of it that early or just stuck to their game plan?

neil: Well, it didn’t help that the score allowed Tennessee to dust off a version of the ol’ kryptonite coverage scheme we’ve written about before.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I think the flukey interception at the beginning might have had an impact on things. Unsure about spirals and the rest. They moved the ball fine as a team — it was the high-leverage plays where the wheels fell off.

Salfino: The average team this decade has scored 1 point every 15.3 yards. So the Ravens had 34.6 expected points, and they scored only 12. And on top of that, the Titans got touchdown “drives” of 20, 35 and 45 yards (one play on the 45-yard “drive” — the play of the game, IMO).

The Titans had a point every 10.7 yards to one every 44.2 for the Ravens. Good. Lord. Those numbers are crazy.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I was tracking yardage and time of possession by drive, and I can’t remember a time when possessions were equal and the Ravens trailed in anything but penalty yards and turnovers. And, of course, points.

neil: So do the Ravens just file this in the “shit happens” drawer and move on?

sara.ziegler: I think so, right?

joshua.hermsmeyer: I don’t think anyone is just “moving on,” but yeah, I think that’s the most sound takeaway. Football is weird.

sara.ziegler: “Football is weird” should be our slogan for this whole season.

neil: I’m not sure we’ll see a stretch like this in football ever again:

Derrick Henry has been on fire since Week 10

Tennessee running back Derrick Henry’s weekly totals in the last half of the 2019 NFL regular season and playoffs

Rushing

Week

Opponent

Result

Carries

Yards

Yds/carry

TD

10

Kansas City

W 35-32

23

188

8.2

2

12

Jacksonville

W 42-20

19

159

8.4

2

13

Indianapolis

W 31-17

26

149

5.7

1

14

Oakland

W 42-21

18

103

5.7

2

15

Houston

L 21-24

21

86

4.1

0

17

Houston

W 35-14

32

211

6.6

3

18

New England

W 20-13

34

182

5.4

1

19

Baltimore

W 28-12

30

195

6.5

0

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Salfino: Henry’s genius to me is running the play that’s called. He’s not creative; he’s not looking for another hole or to create one himself. He’s just pure speed and power at the point of attack. He’s like Jim Brown, stylistically. His offensive linemen must love him because they know that if they just barely do their jobs, the play is going to be successful.

sara.ziegler: “He’s not creative” does not sound like a compliment to me, LOL.

Salfino: I know. But he’s not an improviser. Maybe that’s the better word.

And why should he be?

sara.ziegler: If it ain’t broke, etc.

What about Ryan Tannehill’s performance in this game — and in the postseason in general?

Salfino: Is he playing? I haven’t noticed.

neil: 😂

sara.ziegler: 🤣

neil: Lol.

sara.ziegler: Jinx

joshua.hermsmeyer: He’s just sixth in play-action EPA per play in the playoffs, after being tops in the regular season.

neil: At least this time around, the EPA split between passing and rushing offense made more sense.

sara.ziegler: Not gonna lie: I was pretty worried about our model about a quarter into this game.

joshua.hermsmeyer: What a first half that was. Whew.

neil:

👀

sara.ziegler: A roller coaster right there.

Salfino: The Texans never really stopped the Chiefs one time. Kansas City had the two drops, the blocked punt and muffed punt return. And then, seven straight touchdown drives (that seemed like 700).

joshua.hermsmeyer: The game started in a similar way to the Baltimore-Tennessee game on Saturday. The difference is that the Chiefs are a team built on the passing game, and you can overcome a lot of bad variance quickly with that type of attack.

Salfino: The turnaround was so quick. It was more like watching an NBA game than a football game.

neil: Yeah, is that basically why the Chiefs are still playing and the Ravens not?

Salfino: I think this is correct: There is no defense for Patrick Mahomes in this offense.

neil: Houston was also far from flawless in its execution once the big lead fell into its lap.

(By contrast, I thought Tennessee executed a nearly perfect game plan once it got out ahead.)

Salfino: Houston seemed to panic at the first sign of trouble. I get that the Chiefs made a great play to snuff out the fake punt, but that was a crazy play-call at that point in the game. Make the Chiefs earn it.

I’m not sure about it, but that seemed like it could have been the fastest four touchdowns in NFL history. If you went out for lunch and returned, Kansas City had already come all the way back from 24-0. In real time, it felt like 10 minutes.

joshua.hermsmeyer: It was one beer at a not-so-busy bar, my preferred measure of time.

Salfino: Hahaha

sara.ziegler: So let’s move over to the NFC, where the games were much less interesting, at least until the very end of the Green Bay-Seattle game.

Salfino: I have a great Kirk Cousins stat. He completed 72.4 percent of his passes, and the Vikings had 147 total yards. That’s the fewest number of yards on better than 70 percent accuracy, minimum 25 pass attempts, since the merger IN ANY GAME, playoffs or regular season.

neil: He was really focused on getting that completion for 4 yards on third-and-8.

sara.ziegler: Dalvin Cook: 18 yards on nine carries.

Sure.

Salfino: This is what we talked about with Cousins last week. That’s why those stats about his rating against playoff teams being about the same as against nonplayoff teams is so meaningless.

sara.ziegler: Wait, what do you mean, Mike?

Salfino: I mean that if he happens to avoid interceptions, which are random, he’s going to play to a passer rating by just piling up meaningless completions.

sara.ziegler: Ohhh, passer rating is garbage. Right.

Salfino: It’s certainly garbage for Cousins.

joshua.hermsmeyer: A 63.6 three-and-out percentage was brutal for the Vikings. Throughout the playoffs, the average has been 26.4 percent.

Salfino: Three-and-out is such a good stat.

neil: I will say, we have to credit the Niners defense as well. They really reasserted themselves after a shaky stretch.

sara.ziegler: Absolutely, Neil. San Francisco is just a much more complete team.

neil: San Francisco really was the lone favorite that didn’t have to sweat it out over the weekend.

It was funny that at one point during the K.C. game, when Houston was ahead, you Slacked and were like, “Great, all of the underdogs will win this weekend EXCEPT the Vikings.”

neil: I wonder if that will change next week against the No. 1 offensive line in pass block win rate.

Salfino: That’s a great stat. This game suddenly got a lot more interesting, in my mind. It’s always tough to believe in a rematch when the last game that season was such a massacre, but there’s also the 2010 Jets over the Patriots, right?

neil: That one definitely sticks out in my mind as a rare major reversal between regular season and playoffs.

joshua.hermsmeyer: My research has shown that o-line has more of an effect on pass rush allowed than defense does in creating it, fwiw.

neil: Interesting!

Salfino: I believe that, Josh. The offense is mostly in control versus anything the defense does, based on all the data I’ve seen.

neil: Does the defense control its own destiny in anything???

Poor defenses. Always at the whims of the offense.

(Or variance.)

Salfino: I think certain, generational defenses (cue Josh) do. And certainly some players like a Lawrence Taylor. But it’s rare.

joshua.hermsmeyer: Right, at the player level, defenders certainly own their pressure created. But it seems that they do so more often against poor o-lines, so that’s what pops up in the studies.

sara.ziegler: I have a hard time believing that the Green Bay run defense will slow down the Niners.

sara.ziegler: By Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, the Vikings had the ninth-best run defense this year, and they still gave up 186 yards to the Niners. Green Bay was ranked 23rd.

neil: 😬

Well, we can also look at that split for the K.C. run defense vs. the Titans rushing attack. The Chiefs were 29th in DVOA against the run, and Tennessee ranked fifth in offensive rushing DVOA.

With all of these teams building to stop the pass and not caring about run defense, are we reaching the point where it makes sense to build a running team to tear through it? Or is this just a one-off with Tennessee?

Salfino: I don’t know if you can throw more defenders in the box at Henry and stop him. But I will dare Jimmy Garoppolo to beat me if I’m the Packers. I thought he looked VERY shaky against the Vikings.

You can’t let the Niners get 47 carries like the Vikings allowed or even close to it if you’re the Packers.

CORRECTION (Jan. 15, 2020, 3:40 p.m.): A previous version of the chart of defenses faced by Lamar Jackson gave the incorrect date for the Baltimore Ravens’ divisional-round loss to the Tennessee Titans. It was Jan. 12, 2020, not Jan. 12, 2019.