Tropical Storm KAY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 06 2004
KAY IS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO JUST A SMALL PUFF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
WHILE MEANDERING NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT MAY BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE VERY POOR PRESENTATION IN INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/04...EVEN THOUGH KAY HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
LOSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS BECOMING QUITE SHALLOW. AS SUCH...THERE MAY
BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY
REDEVELOP AND DEEPEN THE VORTEX AND CAUSE IT TO BE STEERED
GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE TAKE KAY WESTWARD AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WOULD LIKELY ONLY HAPPEN IF THE SYSTEM
BECOMES VERTICALLY DEEP AGAIN...AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
KAY IS GETTING HAMMERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY AIR WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...MOST THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N 128W...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
THE EAST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION NEAR 11N 101W. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KAY MAY NOT SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF RATHER
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.0N 117.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.2N 118.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 16.3N 120.1W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 16.3N 121.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 16.4N 123.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 16.5N 131.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 135.5W 30 KT
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