Bill Bender

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Chances are the Big Ten will have success in the 2014 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

The conference has an excellent track record. It put four teams in the Sweet 16 in 2012 and again in 2013, the most of any conference.

The Big Ten's longest Final Four drought since 1997 is two years, and a team from the conference has advanced to the NCAA championship game six times since 2000. Those teams include Michigan State (2000, 2009), Indiana (2002), Illinois (2005), Ohio State (2007) and Michigan (2013).

Of course, Big Ten teams have trouble finishing the job. The 2000 Michigan State team is the only one of those schools that won the title. Big Ten teams are 14-18 in games played in the Sweet 16 or afterward since 2007.

So it's safe to say a Big Ten team will make a run this year. Picking the right one is the tricky part. Consider that while Michigan placed fifth in the Big Ten regular season and was a No. 4 seed last season, the Wolverines were the Big Ten team that got all the way to the championship game.

With that in mind, let's handicap the Big Ten teams in this team's tournament:

Michigan State (26-8)

Reason to believe: The Spartans have been hampered by injuries, but they are 22-3 with Branden Dawson in the lineup and a popular pick to win it all after a strong showing at the Big Ten tournament.

Reason to doubt: A potential Sweet 16 matchup with North Carolina, which has won seven in a row against the Spartans. Only one No. 4 seed – Arizona in 1997 – has won the tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1984-85.

Tournament trend: Michigan State has six Final Four appearances under Tom Izzo, but the Spartans haven't advanced past the Sweet 16 the past three years.

Reason to believe: Michigan ranks eighth in the NCAA in free-throw percentage (76.1). Four starters shoot 75.2 percent or better from the line.

Reason to doubt: The lack of a dominant post presence without Mitch McGary. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford combine to average just 9.5 points per game. Also, Michigan is 1-5 against Duke, its potential Sweet 16 opponent, under John Beilein.

Tournament trend: This is the Wolverines’ fifth tournament with Beilein, but last year's run was the first time Michigan advanced to the second weekend of the tournament.