The Trump Fog Machine (“Do you remember what monstrous, contemptible or demonstrably false thing Donald Trump said one year ago? Six months ago? O.K., last week? Probably not. The effect of this presidency-by-horrors is to induce amnesia in the public, as if we’d all been given a memory-loss drug.”)

Protesters cut off Virginia Tech president during state of university speech (“Virginia Tech President Timothy Sands’ second annual state of the university speech Friday was temporarily interrupted by a group of students who criticized the school for employing a man they allege to be a white supremacist.” Wait, “allege?” Can this newspaper not simply look at the guy’s social media postings, which are filled with neo-Nazi crap, Holocaust denial slime, etc? Also, why is Virginia Tech not taking any action???)

VT President Sands gives State of the University address (“One member of the crowd asked ‘why do you let Mark Neuhoff, a neo-nazi teach at Virginia Tech?’…President Sands acknowledged the issues are over one person’s comments, who’s associated with the school, but wouldn’t name the person.”)

Photographer files complaint against Rep. Garrett (“A photographer has filed a federal complaint against U.S. Rep. Tom Garrett, R-Buckingham, for using one of his photos in a 2016 campaign ad without permission. Todd Bigelow, a California-based photographer, claims Garrett ’s campaign used a copyrighted photo from 1994 showing people climbing the Mexican border wall.”)

Something big may be happening, in terms of a blow to Trump. I am not going to claim that I can foresee how this latest from Trump is going to play out. Whether this particular piece of Trump behavior will break the camel’s back is impossible to predict. I will only say this:

The way that Trump has turned his response to the problems of Puerto Rico into an attack on the San Juan mayor who begged him for help– the ugliness of that is profound enough, and palpable enough by the values of many Republicans and Trump voters, that it is a plausible candidate for being a kind of turning point.

The way that Joseph McCarthy could never recover from that moment of profound shaming when Welch said, “Have You No Sense of Decency?” It’s at least possible that some measurable kind of breakdown of support for Trump might result for the shamefulness of a President responding to a humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico as Trump has, and then to attack the mayor who begs him for more vigorous help in an emergency.

Such human indifference doesn’t sit well with most people, almost all of whom care about human decency.

Sorry to be cynical at this point, but I’m betting on Trump’s “base” sticking with him even after this latest outrage. Nothing else has caused these people to budge, why would this?

Andy Schmookler

“Why would this?” I’ve given my reasons — so profound and palpable an ugliness about a kind of “decency” that Trump-type people I know generally value– but there’s a good chance you’re right.

My understanding is that there’s a sizable chunk who (pollsters discover) cannot imagine anything Trump could do that would lead them to withdraw their support. But that kill-someone-on-Fifth-Avenue kind of Trump supporter is not the majority of his base.

So if something registers negatively enough, it could have an impact. And this looks to me especially clearly outside the conceivable range of decency and acceptability.

“that kill-someone-on-Fifth-Avenue kind of Trump supporter is not the majority of his base.”

Seems like it’s about 80% or so (at least) of his base.

Andy Schmookler

If I recall correctly, there was a poll sometimes maybe a month ago, in which it was about 1/3 of Trump supporters — a larger group than what you likely mean by his “base” — who indicated that nothing they could think of Trump doing would get them to bail on him.

If that’s to be believed, that would leave 2/3 of his support that might move if Trump did something offensive enough to them.

Based on my knowledge of at least a good chunk of those people — people who fall into those traditionalist, evangelical, rural categories — I believe that it is possible they will see his treatment of these people in trouble as crossing a line.

It is relevant that out here in the Trumpland of the Shenandoah Valley, a person in need — whether a car breakdown by the side of the road, or an illness in the family, or some other such emergency — is more likely to get help quite readily than in the more liberal places I’ve lived in over the years. At least so it has seemed to me.

What remains to be seen — aside from whether the media and the Democrats and other voices make a big issue of this — is whether that commitment to helping people beset by an emergency will outweigh the racism and other negative factors that Trump tries to bring to bear. (Like when Trump introduces the image of the “lazy” Puerto Ricans.)

“Six in 10 people who approve of President Donald Trump (61%) say they can’t think of anything Trump could do that would make them disapprove of his job as President, according to a Monmouth University poll released this week.”

Andy Schmookler

Interesting. I don’t believe I am misremembering that earlier poll. I wonder if I’m mistaken about that, if something has changed, or if the polls asked different questions. But it is certainly a remarkable statement to affirm, that NOTHING the man could do would lead to their disapproval. Do they really mean it? Are they just sticking it to the pollster, using this question to say, defiantly, “Trump’s my guy, dammit.”