Jeremy Corbyn’s rollercoaster

“No.” That was the one-word answer Jeremy Corbyn gave to the question “Are you the problem?” this morning.

ITV’s Political Editor Chris Ship, who posed the question, tried to follow up by asking why, but Corbyn did not care to elaborate.

Labour’s defeat to Theresa May’s Conservatives in the Copeland by-election — the first time a governing party has made a by-election gain since 1982 — is a bitter blow for the Labour leader, which will renew questions about his leadership.

Corbyn has a task ahead to convince his MPs and the electorate that he is the right man to take the party into the next general election.

But ironically, on the same night he suffered the personal blow of losing Copeland, one of the defining decisions of his leadership — not to oppose Theresa May on Article 50 — was vindicated, at least to a degree, in Stoke-on-Trent Central, where the party ran a campaign demonstrating new-found enthusiasm for Brexit, a stance that probably helped their candidate Gareth Snell over the line in a constituency where nearly 70 percent backed Brexit.

At the same time, the pro-EU Liberal Democrats saw modest boosts in both seats, eating into the Labour vote. The Brexit Catch-22 facing Labour — whose voters were split, one-third for in favor of leaving the European Union, two-thirds against — remains a pressing electoral concern for the party.

More daunting by far is the sheer dominance of Theresa May’s Conservatives.

The victory in Copeland, traditionally a Labour seat that backed Brexit, is vindication of the strategy she signaled at the Conservative party conference in October.

There she cast herself as the champion of the 52 percent who voted to Leave the European Union, and — stealing Labour’s clothes — pledged to represent people who felt left behind by globalization and the march of the metropolitan elites. Set aside for a moment the fact that, behind the rhetoric, her government remains wedded to economic austerity, and that she faces a profoundly difficult EU exit negotiation. For now, solidly on or around 40 percent in the polls, she looks unassailable.

On current trends, the strategy looks like it could propel May into a position of dominance not seen in British politics since the heyday of Tony Blair.

This insight is from POLITICO’s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Read today’s edition or subscribe here.

terence patrick hewett

Moomo

Vindicated in Stoke? Hardly that! This was one of the safest Labour seats in the country, a seat the Conservatives shouldn’t have come within a million miles of winning. The sad truth is that Labour only won because the anti-Labour (and pro-Brexit) vote was split down the middle. Had either UKIP or the Conservatives chosen to give the other party a free ride, Labour would have lost, and badly.