Thursday, December 8, 2011

With all teams having completed 25 games, equaling roughly 30 percent of the 82 game regular season schedule, the 2012 NHL playoff picture is taking shape. Preliminary postseason projections are posited below.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture At 25 Games

EAST

WEST

Team

W

Pts

Pace

Team

W

Pts

Pace

1. BOS

17

35

1.40

1. DET

16

33

1.32

2. NYR

15

34

1.36

2. MIN

15

33

1.32

3. PHI

15

33

1.32

3. DAL

15

31

1.24

4. PIT

14

32

1.28

4. SJS

15

31

1.24

5. TOR

14

30

1.20

5. STL

14

31

1.24

6. FLA

13

30

1.20

6. CHI

14

31

1.24

7. WAS

13

27

1.08

7. LAK

13

30

1.20

8. BUF

13

27

1.08

8. VAN

14

29

1.16

9. OTT

12

26

1.04

9. PHO

13

29

1.16

10. NJD

12

25

1.00

10. NAS

12

28

1.12

11. TBL

11

24

0.96

11. EDM

12

27

1.08

12. MTL

10

24

0.96

12. CGY

11

24

0.96

13. WPG

10

24

0.96

13. COL

11

23

0.92

14. NYI

9

23

0.92

14. ANA

7

19

0.76

15. CAR

8

20

0.80

15. CLB

7

17

0.68

Arguably insignificant with 70 percent of the schedule to play, standings at the 25 game mark have proven a reliable measure for postseason play. Specifically, in each of the past two seasons only four outliers at the 25 game mark have made the playoffs of which only one team from either year (Buffalo 2011) qualified with a points pace of less than 1.00.

Assuming a 95 point cutoff to qualify for the 2012 NHL postseason, though last year's actuals were 93 points in the East and 97 points for the West, the chart below presents the points and pace needed for the remainder of the season for existing outliers to skate beyond 82 games.