Charlie Crist: “No way” will I lose this primary in which I’m now trailing by 18 points

posted at 1:54 pm on February 22, 2010 by Allahpundit

The key bit comes at the very end but I’m giving you the whole clip to show you how rough this primary with Rubio has already become. I actually think he’s doing the right thing politically by sticking with his support of the stimulus (“It was the right thing to do”): He’s got plenty of cover from the media to argue that it helped the state — although he’d have to argue damned hard — and Rubio’s already done a thorough enough job of tying Crist to it that flip-flopping now would only look weak and craven. Best to stand by your decision, hope that public perceptions change, and at least win a few “man of integrity” points with voters.

Although, if Rasmussen’s right, he’s going to have to win more than a few:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Republican Primary voters finds Rubio leading Crist by 18 points, 54% to 36%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent are undecided.

Those figures reflect a five point increase in support for Rubio compared to a month ago. Support for Crist has changed little over the past month.

In December, the two GOP hopefuls were tied at 43% apiece. The new findings mark Rubio’s best showing to date and Crist’s worst. The good news for Crist is that Florida Republicans don’t pick their nominee until an August 24 primary…

Fifty-four percent (54%) of likely primary voters have a favorable view of Crist. This marks an eight-point drop from the previous survey. Sixteen percent (16%) now view him very favorably. Forty-four percent (44%) of Republican voters in the state now have an unfavorable view of the incumbent GOP governor, including 14% whose view is very unfavorable. Only two percent (2%) have no opinion of him.

Moderates split evenly between the two but Rubio leads with conservatives by … 40 points. Crist’s approval rating as governor is also down sharply among primary voters since just last month, from 56 percent to 48 percent; his disapproval number’s a point higher than that, which is all the evidence you need of how much Rubio’s attacks have taken out of him. Exit question: The conventional wisdom for months is that Crist’s fighting a losing battle here and will have to consider either a party switch or an independent run to avoid getting knocked off in the primary. But he and Rubio are set to debate on Fox News Sunday on March 28th. If he waits until after the debate to make the switch, won’t it be seen as a tacit admission that he’s lost the argument, which will fatally wound him in the general? His strategy, I assume, is to do well enough on FNS that it’ll narrow the gap between him and Rubio, but how wide does the gap have to get before it becomes unnarrowable?

Comments

Oh, and Crist will say he can win, up until he loses. All politicians do. Even McCain and his campaign put on a brave (public) face, even while privately some of them were telling each other it was over by the end of October.

Florida’s late payment numbers rose from 12.18% to 12.66% during the 3rd quarter of last year. By the end of last year, the national average of mortgages in foreclosure was 4.58%, while Florida was able to claim the unfortunate distinction of a 13.44% foreclosure rate.

Charlie followed McCain around like a puppy in a bid to become VP and then he started running for senate.
And before all that he was schmoozing with his green hero, Ah-nold at global warming conferences.

I don’t blame republicans for grabbing the money once it was passed. They have every right to get some of their constituent’s money returned to their respective state. However, anyone who voted for it or said it was a good idea in the first place needs to go.

Hey Nelsa–I’m going for Rubio; however, Crist was pretty fiscally conservative. CATO gave him an “A” which is one of the best scores in the country. Crist is much better than Pawlenty and probably Romney on fiscal matters. But he’s no Rubio.

Pew Research recently did a detailed poll that demonstrated that the Republican Party is currently made up of 68% Conservatives, 4% liberals, and 28% moderates.

So of course, the vast majority of the party’s leadership is drawn from the moderate and liberal wings, who view the conservative majority with deep, deep suspicion, refuse to run conservative candidates because that’s a ‘losing strategy’, and continue to claim that even now the party is still ‘too conservative’ for their taste.

Since Gingrich and the Republican revolution of 1994, we’ve watched this moderate leadership ignore conservatives and offer Democrat Lite.

Crist is just the latest example of a moderate caught flat footed when the Republican majority decided it was time to take their party back from the moderates who have been ignoring them.

HA. HA HA. Of the two, switching would be more sucessful. Except, of course, he’d be running in the Democrat primary against an honest-to-G*d Democrat, and not a Specter Republican. I don’t think the Dem voters will go for that.

As for running the general as an independent, that could happen if he drops out now, and starts gathering signatures to get on the general election ballot. He needs vicinity 250,000 signatures, and his campaign is barred by law from collecting those signatures will running in a primary. The window between the end of the primary campaign and the last day to submit signatures is simply too small for that many signatures.

Frankly, I hope Rubio pulls out all the stops and plasters photos of the Obama embrace. Not that I don’t blame Charlie, Obama has told us about his gift and In a moment of weakness, Charlie just needed to be held.

Hey Nelsa–I’m going for Rubio; however, Crist was pretty fiscally conservative. CATO gave him an “A” which is one of the best scores in the country. Crist is much better than Pawlenty and probably Romney on fiscal matters. But he’s no Rubio.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on February 22, 2010 at 4:05 PM

The author of that report (Tax Policy Director Christ Edwards) retracted it in
Oct of 2009:

I am pleased that Crist values Cato’s ratings because we work hard to make them accurate and nonpartisan. But as the report’s author, I am concerned that the governor has fallen off the fiscal responsibility horse since the report was written in mid-2008.

In particular, Crist approved a huge $2.2 billion tax increase for the fiscal 2010 budget, even though he had promised that $12 billion in federal “stimulus” money showered on Florida over three years would obviate the need for tax increases.

About $1 billion of the tax increases are on cigarette consumers, which will particularly harm moderate-income families. The rest of the increases are in the form of higher costs for often mandatory services, such as automobile registration, which is really just a sneaky form of tax increases.

Cato’s Chris Edwards in an October e-mail to the St. Petersburg Times: “But as the report’s author, I am concerned that the governor has fallen off the fiscal responsibility horse since the report was written in mid-2008. In particular, Crist approved a huge $2.2 billion tax increase for the fiscal 2010 budget, even though he had promised that $12 billion in federal ‘stimulus’ money showered on Florida over three years would obviate the need for tax increases.”

A huge tobacco tax increase, entrance fees in state parks, hunting, and fishing license increases not to mention the use of taxpayers money to fly all over the world preaching global warming and spending tax payers money doing it. THE completely incompetent handling of the home owners insurance crisis makes him unfit to governor in my opinion.

THE completely incompetent handling of the home owners insurance crisis makes him unfit to governor in my opinion.

historian on February 22, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Agreed 1000% We haven’t had many problems since 2006 onward, but no relief. On top of that, property taxes are going up again. We grew too much all the way to 06-07, and it’s been like a junkie going through withdrawal every since. We can do something on property taxes, don’t know what to do on insurance though.

Maybe they can get a Tea Party candidate to split the vote with Rubio to ensure an unintended victor…..just like Nevada.

I imagine if ive thought of it then the Dems must be wondering if they should start inventing Tea Party candidates in order to affect election outcomes.

Rubio is a Conservative hope for the future, the accomplishments he could achieve in the Senate would be a stepping stone for even higher office. All Crist would do is give us Arlen Spector hearburn and Maine sisters’ headaches.

What argument is a winner for Crist vs Rubio? 2010 is a perfect year for a guy like Rubio, a real conservative….young and plain spoken. Just what the Republican Party needs to grow and lead.

I know the party bigwigs will try and screw it up…..but we cant let them pull another McCain on us or the resurgence of Republicans will be very short lived….like one election cycle.

So you and Rubio dont think that non violent felons who apply and wait a year to have the civil rights restored shouldnt. I am curious, what is your reasoning behind that? Oh because they may vote Dem? Or is it because you think that giving people a stake in society is not a way to prevent reoffending?

The Tea Party movement is pretty strong in Florida and this not being a national election thus probably low voter turnout, it doesn’t look good for Crist.

However…there is the senior vote and they did manage to protect traditional Medicare Advantage benefits from tampering in key Democratically-controlled counties (though Bill Nelson denies that this is so) so it’s far from a done deal. Even if Nelson is right, the mere idea that Medicare for senior citizens will somehow be immune from cuts and if the Country Club Republicans can put the idea out there that Rubio is even lukewarm towards Medicare Advantage (which is heavily subsidized…like all government programs) then Crist could pull it off.

What I can’t figure out though is why these once-conservative Republicans are jumping on the Dem bandwagon while actual Dems are jumping ship in several states?

As a Floridian, I’m livid with Crist. Rubio will get my vote. Crist opened up a huge can of worms with his doubling of the homestead exemption. It was much like the central planning being orchestrated by the feds right now. As the feds right now do not consider the individual circumstances of each state, Crist demonstrated no concern for the individual circumstances of different Florida cities. As a result of his Great Idea[tm] I ended up paying more than if my property taxes were left alone. Our city already had low taxes and scrambled to enact new charges for garbage (which used to be included in the power bill) and whatever else they could come up with to make up for the shortfall.

I won’t even get into his shameless brown nosing and coddling up to Obama.

1) Crist’s support of McCain (and his sudden marriage of convenience) in the hopes of getting the VP nod.

2) Crist’s push for the passage of Obama’s stimulus package.

3) Crist’s resurrection of the high speed rail project, for which he accepted just enough Federal funds to start the project, leaving hard-hit Florida taxpayers to pick up 3 billion for a fiasco which will never be used, will never go away, and like Amtrak, will never not need taxpayer subsidies.

4) Crist is an AGW mark.

5) Crist can’t even win a stupid straw poll in his home county.

6) Crist’s butt boy Jim Greer, the former head of the Florida Republican Party, was forced to resign for financial shenanigans (and he’s not the only dirty player tied to Crist).

7) Crist appointed his own campaign manager to fill out the rest of Martinez’ term.

8) Crist has proposed no serious cuts to the budget, opting instead for tax increases, to include millage rates, which will hurt precisely those already devastated by the housing debacle.

9) I can’t name a single plan Crist has put forward for addressing one of the highest unemployment rates in the country (high speed rail doesn’t count).

I don’t even have to like Rubio to vote for him. I held my nose and registered as a Republican just so I wiil be able to vote for Rubio in the primary. August 24th can’t come soon enough.

Hey, Squid. No, I have never heard of Ray Sansom, but I will look him up. Yes, the millage rate is local, but the State budget gives the local governments essentially no choice. And your point on #2 is a take I hadn’t considered.

I have noticed you are a Crist supporter. I haven’t had time to read the thread, but if you have specific negatives on Rubio, I’d like to know.

I have noticed you are a Crist supporter. I haven’t had time to read the thread, but if you have specific negatives on Rubio, I’d like to know.

entropent on February 23, 2010 at 9:51 AM

I am a Crist supporter by necessity. He has done things I dont agree with. But I will give you a few things about Rubio.

1) Rubio, as Speaker, oversaw the most corrupt House in FL history (since reconstruction). The House Ethics comission is about to release its findings. One of the people implicated directly is Rubio’s handpicked budget chief and sucessor, Ray Sansom, who resigned from the Speaker post in disgrace after a “budget money for job” scandal. Sansom just resigned his seat just ahead of the release of the findings.
2) Rubio was the most powerful single player in the budget battles of 2007, and he accomplished nothing to resolve the shortfall during the Sepcial Session, opting instead to debate “truck nutz” bans.
3) Rubio is a panderer on illegal immigration, both in enforcement and counting in the census.

Rubio had two plans. One was that millage rates should be only around 1% and the other was the sales tax increase in exchange for no homestead taxes. I liked the latter, but whatever. I do remember now about the pork and Crist taking a lot out of the budget, first year or two. So you’re right there, but it’s too late for Crist unless he embarrasses Rubio during the two TV debates.

Property taxes are the lifeblood of the local government. I would never advocate the state messing with them in order to replace them with the notoriously unreliable sales tax. I think both of Rubios plans, as well as Crist’s Amendment 1 were disasters for municipalities and were a completely unnecessary infringement on local sovereignty.

I think Charlie will do fine, if he looses this race, he will and should run for the Senate in 2012 against Nelson. I think he will win. If he rises above it and wins this nomination, assuming the Rubio supporters dont sullenly sit on their hands in November, Rubio will be in a prime spot to run against Nelson as well. Florida wins, sort of.

Crist was usually taking the State Senate’s side. So it was two against one. Also, Rubio really couldn’t go nuclear against the Senate; otherwise the press would say the GOP couldn’t govern FL. The Herald made this argument. I think in the next cycle or two the Senate will get more conservative and with McCollum, we’ll get our finances in order.