Game 3 of the 2013 State of Origin series will be played tomorrow night
at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, as the NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons face
each other in the deciding match of the series.If it feels like I’ve written the following sentence a hundred times
over the last six weeks, it’s probably because I have: the Blues will be
looking to end seven years of pain, while Queensland will be looking to
extend their already historical dominance by yet another year.

So far in the series, the Blues have scored a total of 20 points, and
in a contender for understatement of the year, I’m going to predict
that 10 points – their per game average – won’t be enough to defeat the
Maroons at Homebush tomorrow night.Optimistic New South Welshmen will point out that 10 points would
have been enough to defeat Queensland in game one, but you would have to
be crazy to think the Maroons will play that badly again.

Which, for the mathematical professors among us, means NSW will need to score more than 18 points to win the game.

So the question I repeat is, do NSW have enough points in them?

The loss of Jarryd Hayne is a massive blow, as he has a knack of
scoring big tries against Queensland. His absence will be felt in many
facets of the game, but none more so that his propensity to cross the
try line.

Though the backline of Michael Jennings, Josh Morris, James McManus,
Brett Morris and Josh Dugan has an abundance of try scoring ability, the
issue once again will be providing them with opportunities. This
obviously falls back upon the go-forward the pack provides, and then the
chances the ball-players can create for their backs.

Sadly, when it comes to the forwards, NSW will be without the
services of arguably the world’s best, with Paul Gallen ruled out via
injury.

Even if Gallen was fit, halfback Mitchell Pearce, five-eighth James
Maloney and hooker Robbie Farah hold the keys to the Blues’ attack.
However, Pearce has been sub-par, Maloney was targeted by the Maroons
and therefore neutralised in Game 2, and Farah has been asked to do too
much, which has affected his attacking game.

The Blues have enough points in them, but only if these three fire.

Yet unless Pearce can suddenly become a good player, Maloney can find
refuge in defence, and Farah can be freed up to fully utilise his
skills, that’s not going to happen.