Countdown to Oscars

WHY BALE WILL HOLD OFF RUSH

The sense around town is that best picture favorite “The King’s Speech” is only continuing to pick up momentum as the close of voting nears, perhaps to such an extent that it could even carry along on its coattails some smaller categories in which it once seemed to be a long-shot. It seems to me that anyone who likes the film has to like not only Colin Firth, who plays the eponymous monarch, but also Geoffrey Rush, who plays his comedic foil, a somewhat eccentric Average Joe who serves as the audience’s surrogate. So, if Firth is such a sure thing to win best actor (and he is), then why isn’t Rush to win best supporting actor? If anyone would benefit from a “King’s Speech” tidal wave, wouldn’t it be him?

The answer: possibly, but probably not. Why? Firstly, because Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), his chief rival for this year’s prize (who is also extraordinary in his film), has defeated Rush to win virtually every major Oscar-precursor’s best supporting actor award up to this point — indeed, only Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”) has ever won the best supporting actor Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe Award, and SAG Award, as Bale has, but still lost the Oscar. Secondly, Bale has conducted himself admirably in the process — he got off to a bumpy start by giving a few abrasive interviews, but settled in nicely and gave some of the most gracious and endearing acceptance speeches of the season. Thirdly, because Rush has already won an Oscar (and scored two other nods prior to this year’s) whereas Bale was never so much as nominated prior to this year. And, fourthly, because Academy members — for whatever reason(s) — have historically split up the male acting Oscars between performances from two different films. In fact, only four times in the 73 years in which both categories have previously been presented (or 5.5% of the time) have they both honored performances from the same film:

Russell Crowe won the BFCA/GG/SAG/BAFTA for A Beautiful Mind but lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington. However, his case is very different than Bale. Not only did he win the lead actor Oscar the year before for Gladiator, but he had the PR nightmare at the BAFTA’s happen the day before Oscar ballots went out.

Best Picture winners rarely pick up more than one acting Oscar as well. Mystic River did not win Best Picture the year Penn and Robbins won. The were also both first time Oscar winners that year after previous nominations.

http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

You’re correct about the Crowe example, which I was aware of — please note that I wrote, “only Eddie Murphy (‘Dreamgirls’) has ever won the best supporting actor Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe Award, and SAG Award, as Bale has, but still lost the Oscar,” with “the best supporting actor” being the key phrase. If we’re listing EVERYONE (REGARDLESS OF CATEGORY) who has won all three and still lost, then you have Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind,” 2001), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls,” 2006), and Julie Christie (“Away from Her,” 2007).

Guest

That’s right-I forgot about the category difference. Still a small list even when you include everyone.

GL

I wouldn’t consider Christie because Cotiliard did win the GG for Best Actress comedie or musical. I see both points. But not until the BAFTAs result will I get 99% behind Bale’s win. He reminds me alot of Murphy. And the BAFTAs showed us where the Oscar was going. So I’ll trust them more. I love Bale, his works have been top notch, and he deserves it. Now I wouldn’t be upset if Rush won.

Kmrc

Comparing Bale to Eddie Murphy is beyond insane. Sorry. Leo’s the one without the BAFTA nomination, btw (like Murphy was). Bale is a highly respected British actors-actor who has been a hard working, serious dramatic actor for 25 years. He also hates attention, hates publicity and hates talking about himself in interviews. Eddie Murphy is…none of these things. Apples and Oranges.

David

I’m with you on this Scott. Bale has been aorund since 1987 as a juvenile and has carved out such an illustrious if not blemish free reputation as an actor who gives his all. TheFighter may get otherwise overlooked, the supporting actress category a wide open race despite Melissa leo’s wins already – there is an argument for all 5! Not so the supporting actor. An argument that i don’t subscribe to is that Rush’s previous win will preclude another win this year. Dianne Wiest won 2 a decade apart. Rush’s was 14 years ago. But I see Bale holding the Oscar.

Madskl

stats can be useful, but not when it comes to this. You might as well say, it has happened in the past; no reason it can’t happen again.
The logics of stats can be a tricky business. Sure, they are a handy little tool to bring into any discussion (Oscar-related or not), but they cannot do, is tell us anything about what’s going on (or not) inside the heads of 6,000 individuals at a certain moment in time.
I think Bale is going to emerge victorious, by the way. Based on what? His powerhouse performance (in the best sense of the word) AND his overdue factor. He is one of the most committed actors in the business, people respect and admire that. Maybe they don’t like him…but I’m sure they will award him anyway. Rush is the only possible upset, I agree, and he is probably going to get a larger quantum of the votes than he did at the globes or the SAG, but it’s not going to take him all the way to the podium.
Melissa Leo? That one is another story entirely. I can easily picture her losing it to either Bonham Carter (IF TKS sweeps) or, more likely, Hailee Steinfeld (a great consolation prize for True Grit, and besides; I don’t think her lead performance material will harm her, either)