What happened to my wonderful kaleidoscope?

The official website of the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India mentions that, “Religion returns in Indian census provide a wonderful kaleidoscope of the country s rich social composition..”. It also proudly states that “In fact, population census has the rate distinction of being the only instrument that collets the information on this diverse and important characteristic of the Indian population.(sic)”. The site has a helpful and neat table of data from the 2001 census on the main page as well as the distribution of population in various states.

In 2001, out of a population of 1028m, just over 827m (80.5%) mentioned themselves as followers of “Hindu” religion in the census form. 138m Indians (13.4%) identified themselves as Muslims or the followers of Islam. The Christian population was counted at 24m (2.3%). Barring the five North-Eastern states of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and the Union Territory of Lakshadweep, Hindus were a numerical majority in all other states.

Although Jammu & Kashmir was the only Muslim majority state (as well as Lakshadweep, which is a Union Territory), Muslims constituted a significant proportion of population in Assam (30.9%), West Bengal (25.2%), Kerala (24.7%), Uttar Pradesh (18.5%) and Bihar (16.5%) in 2001. Similarly Christians constituted a sizeable number in Manipur (34.0%), Goa (26.7%), Kerala (19.0%), and Arunachal Pradesh (18.7%) in addition to the Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar islands (21.7%). All these are figures are based on data collected more than 13 years back.

This has not gone unnoticed. Priyadarshi Dutta is one of those who noticed. He not only noticed but has been following this matter for long. He suspects“The reason (why the religion-wise breakdown of data has not been made public) is that..(it) is sure to confirm an upsurge in Muslim population…”

Further “It is likely to reveal that the Hindu population has fallen below 80 per cent in India for the first time after independence.”

If true, this would imply “…severe micro-level changes in the entire northern belt running from western Uttar Pradesh to Assam covering trans-Ganga districts of Bihar and a chunk of West Bengal…This also has severe implications for internal security”

Priyadarshi suggests that such micro-level population shifts may be linked with increasing acts of communal violence in these areas. During my visit to parts of this region in December 2012, this is what I noted in my diary: “…across UP, demographics are changing as “outsiders” (read Bangladeshis) keep pouring in.These “outsiders” bring with them their own interpretation of Islam – far more rigid that than the loose flowing Islam of Bismillah Khan and far less cultured the than poetry of Awadh.”

The other change in demographics which I observed during my travels was“..the increasingly young and restive population across the Doab”. This was hard to miss, as was the “…growing voice of Muslim intransigence, the stubbornness, which gets amplified multi-fold in the age of social media..If rumours were fire to riots, social media is a conflagration all by itself.

And finally, the pusillanimity of administration – which leaves in constant fear of being branded anti-minority and communal. Every time a policeman has to think twice about someone’s religion before arresting him/her is another breath of life into communalism..”

The riots in Muzaffarnagar last year were tragic reminders of the fear I had highlighted above. Priyadarshi’s conclusion that the proportion of Hindus in India’s population is set to decline is shared by others too. In an article titled, “Hindu population set to fall below 80% in Census 2011”, Manika Premsingh and R Jagannathan mentioned how “In a country where Hinduism is the majority religion, it is a unique trend that the proportion of Hindus has shown a secular decline since 1961, matched by a corresponding increase in the proportion of Muslims.”

The article goes on to mention that “The proportion of Hindus has shrunk from 83.4 percent (in 1961) to 80.5 percent (by 2001). This trend matches with an almost equivalent proportional rise among the Muslims – from 10.7 percent to 13.4 percent from 1961 to 2001.

Further, “Decadal growth in the Hindu population has fallen to 19.3% compared with 23.8% in 1961, as per our estimates…In comparison, the growth in the Muslim population accelerated from 30.6% in 1961 to 34.6% in 2001. (Figures for religious demography in 2011 are yet to be made available)”.

Butaggregate, high-level, pan-India figures hardly reveal the real story. This is the story of demographic imbalances that are now visible across parts of India which have long-term ramifications – not just for internal security, but also the future of our culture, traditions and “Hindu” religion/ belief system itself.

Over the same period, “Proportion of Muslims..rose from 21.6 to 23.1 percent and that of Christians from 13.7 to 16.2 percent. The decline in the proportion of Hindus and corresponding rise in that of Muslims and Christians in this region was much sharper than that observed during the earlier decade of 1981-1991; there are reasons to believe that this trend of growing differential between the Hindus and others shall get further emphasized during 2001-2011.”

Almost all the North-Eastern states (including Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya) have seen an unusual increase in Muslim population over the years – figures which suggest large-scale illegal infiltration from Bangladesh into Assam & Meghalaya and the spill-over into other states.

As you would expect, the trends are much “sharper in some of the individual states and in certain districts within those states”. In lower Assam for instance, “..several..districts..are likely to turn Muslim majority (by 2011).

The “decadal growth of Hindus in several districts of lower Assam, especially in Bongaigaon, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Nalbari and Darrang was unnaturally low, indicating the possibility of Hindus leaving the area”. In fact, “in at least 8 taluks of Dhubri, Kokrajhar and Bongaigaon, the number of Hindus counted in 2001 was in fact lower than their number in 1991”.

But the most spectacular example of demographic change in the north-east comes not from Assam but another state whose name begins with the same letter. In a recent piece in WSJ titled, “A Competition for Converts in Arunachal Pradesh”, Max Bearak observed that ”The 1971 census showed less than 1 percent of Arunachal Pradesh’s residents called themselves Christian, but in 2001, 19 percent of the state’s total population and 26 percent of the tribal population put themselves in that category. While religious data for the 2011 census hasn’t been released yet, many observers say that it is likely thatChristians now form a majority of the approximately 1.4 million people in the state, with some tribes almost fully converted.”

Not surprisingly, there are serious concerns that this demographic change, coupled with aggressive evangelization and conversions would erode tribal culture and endanger the local language and customs.

Sh Bajaj’s conclusion is stark: “The northeastern states of India have witnessed great changes in their religious demography during the last few decades.

In the process, large parts of Assam have turned predominantly Muslim and Nagland, Mizoram and the whole of Manipur except the valley districts have become predominantly Christian. In these areas, the changes are almost complete and the only issue of interest is whether the remnants of Hindus in these areas would continue to stay there or will their already negligible presence decline further.

The issue is not yet fully settled in Arunachal Pradesh and to an extent in Meghalaya. For these two states, the figures of 2011 census shall indicate whether the process of change there is also going to be as complete as it has been elsewhere.”

…Infiltration from across the border continues unabated. I sensed a certain degree of fatalism whenever conversation veered on this topic. This is seriously worrying. The scale of people crossing over the border illegally is now estimated to be in thousands – per day. Almost everyone I spoke to mentioned that it will be next to impossible to identify and deport the vast majority of people who have crossed over. Most of them are well entrenched in the “system” with their names on electoral rolls and/or ration cards.

…Land encroachment by these illegal migrants is particularly rampant in the border districts and hard-to-reach villages.

The new generation of migrants crossing over is more brazen and aggressive than before. It is widely believed that everyone is on the “take” – especially in the border regions…

The character of communities where the migrants are settling down is changing slowly but surely…The sounds of “Nam Prasanga” are being replaced by the Azaan(Adhan) and local customs and festivities are being overshadowed by religious processions/ congregations that sometimes take the character of display of strength.”

More evidence of significant demographic change in this region comes from a recently leaked Census report, cited by PR Ramesh in “The Untold Census Story. He writes, “..The rise in Muslim numbers is most noticeable in Assam, where they were found to make up 34.2 per cent of the population in 2011, up by more than 3 per cent since 2001. In West Bengal, this religious group’s share rose by almost 2 per cent to 27 per cent…”

“Probably the most important event in (Assam) during the last 25 years — an event,moreover,which seems likely to alter permanently the whole future of Assam and the whole structure of Assamese culture and civilization — has been the invasion of a vast horde of land-hungry Bengali immigrants, mostly Muslims, fromthe districts of(Bangladesh)“

You might think I am quoting a contemporary BJP leader. These are, in fact, words of C S Mullan, census commissioner under the British Raj. He made these comments in 1931. If you thought that the issue of “illegal immigrants from Bangladesh” is a recent one, then think again.

Demographic change in the erstwhile Assam province in the first half of the twentieth century was at the heart of the Muslim League’s demand, in the 1940s, that the territory be given to Pakistan. So those who argue thatlarge-scale immigration from Bangladesh is one of the biggest long-term threats to India’s national security are right…”

“..The process may yet take another decade to fully fructify. However, if as many in the know suggest, anything between 11 and 13 of the 27 districts of Assam are now Muslim majority, it is only a matter of time before the political consequences of this monumental demographic change begin to be felt.This is a demographic upheaval that neither Assam nor the rest of India have begun to appreciate…”

It is tempting to dismiss this talk & such reports as baseless propaganda, wild exaggerations and such. I do not wish to indulge in scare-mongering but it is hard to deny the data. And data not just from “biased” Indian sources.

In 2010, the Pew Forum brought out a report on “Religion & Public Life” on the size, distribution and growth of the global Muslim population. The report mentioned that “The Muslim population in India increased by 76.4 million from 1990 to 2010…”. It also mentioned that (although) “Fertility rates for all populations in India have been declining in recent years, …Muslims in India continue to have more children on average than non-Muslims”

What does this mean over the longer term?

While it is almost impossible for untrained commentators & analysts to “predict” future population trends, there is at least one statistic that most commentators agree is important – and is very likely a precursor of things to come. The statistic is the population in the 0-6 age group. This is what Sh RK Ohri writes about this age-group in “Demographic coup of Islam: Agony of Hindu Civilisation”:

“..Indians must understand the mindboggling import of Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 year age group. It shows that the percentage of 0-6 year old Muslim cohorts..is 21% higher than Hindu cohorts. This gives Muslims an advantage of 7.6% over Hindus as and when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say roughly between 2012 and 2016.

…These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in 2001) will become reproductively active between 2012 and 2016 and continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21% higher cohort population and at least 25 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim population during the next few decades is likely to become even more fast-paced.”

Interestingly, “among all religious groups, the Muslim population of 0-6 year cohorts was highest at 18.7%. A further analysis of 0-6 year cohorts’ data reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim cohorts was higher than Hindu cohorts in as many as 31 States and UTs.”

Sh Ohri is not alone in expressing this fear. In his piece on “Indian Census and Muslim population growth”, Vinod Kumar makes a similar point: “…Even more alarming is the fact that the percentage of population in the age group of 0-6 years was maximum among Muslims at 18.7 per cent…This is a significant 20% above the rate among the Hindus.”

Unfortunately, neither the data, nor the analysis (or the implications of these demographic shifts), has been discussed in mainstream media or prime-time TV.

Some will no doubt wonder, “Does it matter?“; others would ask, “Why bother?”.A few would question my motives. To each of them, I would quote Sh JK Bajaj, once again (emphasis added):

“…We are fortunate to have systematic census data for nearly 140 years. It is important to keep appreciating and analyzing this information to know the momentous changes that are taking place in the religious demography of some parts of India.” Slowly but surely, the ground seems to be slipping from under our feet. We ignore this at our own peril.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Shantanu Bhagwat (aka B Shantanu) is a political activist, advisor to start-ups, seed investor, one-time VC and ex-Indian Foreign Service officer.
Shantanu now devotes the major part of his time to political and systemic reform in India. He has been seriously involved in political activism since the last several years. He also occasionally conducts workshops on Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Strategy.
A graduate in Computer Engineering, Shantanu holds an MBA from London Business School where he was a Chevening Scholar.
Shantanu is the author and publisher of one of India’s foremost blogs on politics, history, culture and religion, ||Satyameva Jayate||.
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