Two new polls show tight race in Wisconsin recall

June 03, 2012|Reuters

MILWAUKEE, June 3 (Reuters) - Two public opinion pollsreleased on Sunday show Wisconsin Republican Governor ScottWalker with a lead of three and six percentage points two daysbefore the election to recall him because of a new law reducingthe power of public sector unions.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, saidWalker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democraticchallenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey.Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent.Both findings were within the margin of error so the resultscould be even tighter.

The PPP margin of three percentage points compared with afive-point Walker lead in their survey three weeks ago.

"If Democrats turn out in the numbers they did in 2008, TomBarrett will win a surprise victory. If they don't, Walker willsurvive," Dean Debnam, president of PPP, said in a statement onthe polling firms website.

Wisconsin's independent agency managing the election lastweek projected a turnout of 60 percent to 65 percent of thevoting age population in the recall. This would be higher thanthe 49.7 percent turnout in the 2010 election for governor wonby Walker, but not as high as the 69.2 percent turnout in the2008 election won by President Barack Obama.

PPP said it surveyed 1,226 likely voters on June 2 and 3 andthe poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percent. PPP surveysfrequently for Democrats but the firm said the final poll wasnot paid for by any candidate or political group.

Angus Reid surveyed 524 registered voters from May 30 toJune 2 and has an error margin of 4.3 percent.

Neither poll showed a significant number of undecidedvoters, suggesting that turnout likely will determine theoutcome. Both sides have massive operations under way to turnout their supporters.

Last year Walker pushed through the legislature a lawforcing state and local workers to pay more for health insuranceand pensions, limited their pay rises, made payment of uniondues voluntary and forced unions to be recertified every year.The measure angered Democrats and unions, who gathered nearly 1million signatures on petitions to force the recall election.

Some analysts are calling the Wisconsin recall the secondmost important U.S. election of the year because it couldindicate which way the political wind is blowing in a keybattleground state before the November presidential vote.