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While the indefinite status of highly coveted Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka stalls the upper echelons of the starting pitcher market, other top free agents are steadily coming off the board, as the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners reload for another season.

With barely six weeks remaining before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, Anthopoulos is running out of time to make significant changes to his roster. At some point he may have to settle for what he’s already got.

That may be a tough pill to swallow for Jays fans, especially after last year’s off-season bonanza. But even without any major changes, there’s reason to believe this team could be better than it was a year ago. There’s also reason to believe they could be worse.

With that in mind, a list for both the pessimist and the optimist to ponder: Five reasons to expect the worst but hope for the best from the Blue Jays in 2014.

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Why you should expect

the worst

1. The rotation: Jays starters owned the second-worst ERA in the majors last season, behind even the Houston Astros. The team with the worst starters’ ERA, the Minnesota Twins, went out and signed two veteran arms — Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes — to bolster their rotation. The Jays, meanwhile, are still looking for upgrades. It’s still possible Anthopoulos will sign Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza or Ervin Santana, or perhaps trade for Jeff Samardzija of the Chicago Cubs, but as it stands the Jays’ starting rotation in 2014 is R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ and one of Drew Hutchison, Todd Redmond or Esmil Rogers. That group has a combined career ERA of 4.50 and, aside from Dickey and Buehrle, is largely unproven. Can the Jays compete in the AL East without a true ace?

2. Second base: Second base was a black hole for the Jays last season and unless Anthopoulos trades for a veteran, the club plans to head into next season using a combination of rookie Ryan Goins and veteran utility man Maicer Izturis. Goins was a saviour defensively when he was promoted from Triple-A last August, displaying soft hands and deft athleticism. But he’s still learning to hit. After the eight-game hit streak with which he kicked off his big-league career, he posted a paltry .211 on-base mark in his next 26 games. The Jays may choose to endure his growing pains at the plate to keep his glove in the field, but it will require patience. The other option is Izturis, who was arguably the worst player in the majors to get at least 300 plate appearances last year, posting a -2.1 WAR, according to Fangraphs. A backup throughout most of his career, Izturis is probably best suited to a part-time role on the Jays’ bench.

3. Catcher: Granted, the Jays had the worst starting catcher in the majors last year in J.P. Arencibia, but can Dioner Navarro and Josh Thole/Erik Kratz be counted on to shoulder a full-season’s load? The three of them combined started just 141 games in the majors last year, while Arencibia alone started 115. Navarro and Thole have both caught more than 100 games previously in their careers, but you would be foolish to count on either of them as sure things. The Jays were clearly impressed with Navarro’s stellar numbers in a limited role last year with the Cubs and are heartened by the fact he was Tampa’s primary backstop on their 2008 playoff run. But it’s been four years since he was a starting catcher. While he’s known more for his bat than his defence behind the plate, Anthopoulos believes Navarro can guide the team’s pitching staff at least until the club’s young catching prospect, A.J. Jimenez, can assume the role.

4. Bullpen: Relievers are the least predictable players on a roster from one year to the next. Rare is the bullpen arm that can stay healthy and put up consistent numbers year after year. So even though the Jays had among the best relief corps in the AL last year — and sent two relievers to the all-star game — there’s a good chance some of their top performers from a year ago will regress in 2014. That said, the Jays do have depth in their ’pen so even if a few relievers suffer due to injury or underperformance, they should, in theory, have able fill-ins standing by.

5. It’s essentially the same team: The Jays won 74 games last season, the fifth-worst mark in the AL and a full 23 games back of the first-place Boston Red Sox. What have they done so far to remedy that? Added a new catcher, who is saddled with his own question marks. Meanwhile the Yankees, while losing all-star second baseman Robinson Cano to the Mariners, are otherwise acting like their old selves, signing top free agents Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran. The Yankees will also likely be the top suitors for Tanaka, if he becomes available. Last year, the Jays looked like they wanted to battle the big boys of the AL East; now they look like also-rans.

Why you should hope

for the best

1. Addition by subtraction: Last year, the Jays gave nearly 500 plate appearances to Arencibia, who posted the second-lowest on-base percentage in baseball history for a player with at least 450 PAs. Josh Johnson made 16 starts while posting the second-highest ERA among starters with at least 80 innings pitched. The second-base combination of Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark DeRosa and Munenori Kawasaki produced bottom-feeding numbers both offensively and defensively. If the Jays receive even replacement-level — let alone league-average — performances out of those three positions next year, they’ll be in much better shape.

2. Pitching depth:Even if Anthopoulos can’t add a frontline starter, the Jays are much deeper than they were a year ago in terms of starting pitching. Last year, they gave 17 starts to a motley crew that included Sean Nolin, Aaron Laffey, Ricky Romero, Chad Jenkins, Ramon Ortiz and Chien-Ming Wang. Add the 34 starts that Rogers and Redmond made and nearly one-third of the team’s starts were made by pitchers who weren’t in their opening-day rotation. But with Hutchison and Kyle Drabek back from their 2012 Tommy John surgeries, Rogers and Redmond emerging as respectable swingmen/emergency starters, and 22-year-old prospect Marcus Stroman looking like he might be ready for The Show, the Jays’ starting options beyond their first five look far more promising than they did last year.

3. Stronger second halves:Dickey and Buehrle, the durable workhorses atop the Jays’ rotation, were much better in the latter half of the season than in the early going. Dickey posted a 3.56 ERA in the second half, compared to 4.69 in the first, while Buehrle’s splits were even more pronounced: he pitched to a 4.89 mark in the first three months of the season compared to 3.18 in the last three. For Dickey, the difference seemed to be a combination of a back/neck injury that limited his velocity in April and May, and a better appreciation of how to pitch in the Rogers Centre — namely keeping the ball down in the zone to ensure fly balls don’t turn into home runs. For Buehrle, it seems it was a matter of becoming more comfortable with Arencibia behind the plate. Either way, the second-half successes of both men is a good sign for next season.

4. Better defence:The Jays were sloppy early in the season, to be sure. But they also weren’t able to play their intended starting lineup until July. When Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes finally settled into the left side of the infield together — and especially when Goins stabilized the defence at second — the Jays were much sharper. Anthopoulos has also hinted that defence will be more of a priority for the team in future.

5. Better health:Aside from the Yankees, the Jays were the most-injured team in the majors in 2013. It’s hard to believe their luck will be as bad this year. Then again, they were also among the most injured in 2012 (though Drabek’s, Hutchison’s and Luis Perez’s Tommy John surgeries are counted in both years.) Melky Cabrera, for one, should be moving much better after having a walnut-sized tumour removed from his spine. The Jays are confident that was what limited his mobility for most of last season. A full off-season of rest and treatment should also help Reyes’ ankle, Edwin Encarnacion’s wrist and Jose Bautista’s leg. You can never bank on good health, but the consensus is that the Jays, as constructed, are better than a 74-win team. Staying healthy will likely be the most important factor in proving that theory.

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