Last summer, the Edmonton Oilers did not do nearly enough to address a weak blue line. They counted on a core group (Jeff Petry, Ladislav Smid, Nick Schultz) that had some significant strengths but simply wasn’t nearly good enough as the top trio. They augmented those three with a raw rookie (Justin Schultz) and a veteran in decline (Ryan Whitney). Then they tossed in a bunch of bottom-pairing/reserve defencemen types and hoped for the best.

There are a lot of good reasons that Steve Tambellini doesn’t have a job right now, but looking back to mistakes made in the summer of 2012 this was the biggest. Craig MacTavish cannot afford to repeat the error, and for Oilers fans the good news is that from everything he’s said it seems likely that the rookie general manager will address the blue line in a meaningful way.

MacTavish has five players already signed for next season, and all five are legitimate NHL defenders. Whatever happens starts with that group of five, but in can go in two very different directions. Consider the two following scenarios:

The actual outcome of the Oilers’ summer work is likely to fall somewhere between “perfect world” and “status quo”; the important thing is that it be closer to the former than the latter. Steve Tambellini’s modus operandi was to fiddle around the edges while draft picks worked their way up the depth chart. Judging from the last few years, counting on improvements from Smid, Petry and Schultz the younger while simultaneously banking on Oscar Klefbom’s NHL readiness would likely have appealed to him. The Oilers cannot afford to do that again.

An acceptable minimum would probably be adding one new top-four defenceman, preferably to the left side of the defence corps. Ladislav Smid and Jeff Petry are both solid top-four defencemen, and while counting on Justin Schultz to be good enough in the number four slot is less than ideal, it may be necessary. Ideally, Schultz slots lower but there simply may not be a candidate available on the right hand side that makes sense in trade or free agency. This new left-side defenceman may come via free agency (Mark Streit has been linked to the Oilers before and is probably the best option) or through trade (the options here are practically limitless, but one name that makes a great deal of sense is Florida’s Dmitry Kulikov); the important thing is that the Oilers find him. A high-end right-side defender would need to be acquired through trade, as there isn’t really a free agent option that makes sense.

Adding one defenceman leaves three spots at the bottom of the rotation (assuming the Oilers opt for 14 forwards and seven defencemen), with the incumbents being signed defenders Nick Schultz and Corey Potter, as well as free agents Mark Fistric, Ryan Whitney and Theo Peckham. Nick Schultz is quite a good fifth option, though given his cap hit ($3.5 million), contract (expires next year) and reputation, he is a plausible trade candidate in a ‘defenceman+ for a better defenceman’ kind of deal. Potter’s fine in a six/seven role, while Fistric ideally slots in as a seventh defenceman. Whitney and Peckham should both probably be cut loose; Whitney is a defensive liability while given the gambles the Oilers are making elsewhere it just doesn’t make sense to have a wildcard like Peckham in the number seven role. If the Oilers can’t land two top-four defencemen, the bottom three represents a good place to add some insurance – the combination of Nick Schultz with a guy like Michal Rozsival or Ian White would give the Oilers a very strong third pairing with two guys capable of moving up in case of injury (or if Justin Schultz struggles).

Corey Potter is a strong number seven (or, if the team feels more muscle is required, Mark Fistric can also fill the role – either is fine but the fact that Potter is on a cheap contract while Fistric is a free agent in a weak UFA year probably gives Potter the advantage) and having Oscar Klefbom as a first call-up option on the blue line is infinitely preferable to giving him a job out of training camp – particularly given that Klefbom missed much of this season to injury.

The indications are that the Oilers believe Klefbom is NHL-ready, so it probably makes sense to expect that the group of five currently signed (Smid, Petry, Schultz, Schultz, Potter) will be joined by the Swedish rookie and one addition via trade or free agency to the top-four. If that turns out to be the case, it will be less than ideal but would still be significantly better than maintaining the status quo, and combined with improvements elsewhere just might be enough for a playoff team.

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