Long summer grind begins. Moehler-Sampson debate.

The major league baseball season is 50 days old and the Astros have established that they can contend.

Will they? It remains to be seen, but we’ve seen glimpses of hope, promise and excitement from virtually every facet of the game. While the starting rotation continues to be a work in progress, every starter has had his moments.

Now, the long summer grind begins. The teams that come out of the heat tunnel in September will be the ones who have passed the tests of injury and maximized their options regarding minor leaguers, flashes in the pans and management decisions (trades, lineups, etc.).

The Astros were 6-12 during the first bad stretch and now 19-9 during another stretch. Realistically, they’re neither as bad as the first stretch, but perhaps not as good as the second either. The next 2-3 months will tell the tale.

Here’s what has to happen over the long, summer grind:

Roy has to stay healthy. If he has to miss a start — or even 2 or 3 — when Wandy comes back, so be it. The Astros can ill afford for him to push through the injury in mediocre fashion, then miss the last 4-6 weeks of the season.

Berkman, Lee and Tejada don’t have to have miraculous, career seasons for the Astros to succeed. They just need to be Berkman, Lee and Tejada. That threesome must hit for the Astros to succeed.

Jose Valverde and the bullpen must produce. Again, no career years, but they can’t blow game after game. Wade and Cooper have to find their dependable 7-8-9 inning guys and ride them. Brocail I’m okay with. Wright and Byrdak appear set. After that, perhaps Nieve will settle in. Either Moehler or Sampson is likely to go to the pen when Wandy returns (barring an injury).

Ed Wade must bolster the rotation at the trade deadline. This could become a key element of success. Will he also have to address the centerfield situation or will the Astros simply plug in Erstad if Bourn doesn’t significantly improve?

Lay out your plans for the long, summer grind. What must happen this summer for the Astros to come out with a chance to win the pennant in September?

• •• ••• •• •

The Moehler-Sampson debate will continue. With Wandy Rodriguez expected back soon, which will go? Or will either? If Roy ends up on the DL, it becomes a moot point, won’t it?

Moehler turned another solid 5-inning performance on Monday, leaving the Astros in position to win a game. His outings should be viewed in the context of a #5 starter, not whether he’s going 6 or 7 innings and striking out a dozen batters.

In that context, he’s giving the Astros what they need…consistency. I’m a Chris Sampson fan, but that’s one thing he hasn’t been.

• •• ••• •• •

Who made the unbalanced schedule that has kept the Astros on the road more often than not so far?

If it hadn’t been for a 7-3 road trip, the Astros could easily have been crying foul!

The Astros:

• Have played 28 of their first 45 games on the road.

• Recently completed a stretch of 18 of 24 on the road.

• Will play 27 of 40 away from Minute Maid from April 23-June 4.

That said, the Astros:

• Lead the majors with 14 road victories (14-14).

• Are 16-8 in their last 24 games, which includes 16 games on the road.

• Were 7-3 on the recent road trip, the first 7-win road trip since July 2005 (7-4).

I worried all night about my post and hoped you would not take it too seriously. I really tried to explain my feelings.

As for dual identity, I think I started with “CDL” because I had never done any kind of posting before and was a bit uncomfortable about it. But after Chip got in touch, I think I started using “Diane” as I relaxed a little about being “out there.”

Don’t feel like Pence swinging at the breaking ball. Just don’t swing at me at all !

I’ll try to reduce it to one name, but haven’t decided which yet. This is a man’s world, and I’m old-fashioned enough to think a girl’s name can mean to some that you take the game less than seriously.

[Understand how you might think it’s a “man’s world”, but this blog is wide open for anyone and you’re in, Diane!]

I am kind of surprised that you did not mention the 3rd base situation – it is neither Blum, or Loretta or Wiggington. We have to find a more dependable third baseman in terms of offence. If we would’ve gotten a 270 BA from them, the picture would have been a little different. May be we won’t be able to find pitching help – I don’t think there is anything out there, but we could find a young third baseman for the future.

[I don’t think the 3B situation is as critical as those areas I mentioned. If Berkman-Tejada-Lee hit, it will make up for much. I’m planning to discuss 3B in a near-future entry.]

Hey Angela!! Thanks. Who says girls don’t know baseball!! I bet there are some guys on this blog who wish they had a wife (or other) who could enjoy the game like we do!!! HA! HA! I live with a “golf husband” so I watch my guys on a different TV!! I’m wondering what’s up with Wiggington. Is he still hurt?? Not sure but when he was out for such a long time the first of the season, Blum and Loretta played “seemless” third.

Good to hear from ya girl!! Where are our other girlfriends??!! Becky:)

Bourn needs to take a seat and pinch hit for a while. Erstad is a proven player and will produce even more if he has a chance to play every day. He is the hottest bench player in the NL right now. His leadership and work ethic will make the line up more solid as we get to the middle of the season. If Bourn has another week of 3/36 I am going to puke. Make the change NOW!

I have been an Astros fan since they were the Colt 45’s. As such, I always see hope, and possibility. But, in order to stay competitive a lot of things have to happen, many of which are not very likely…..much less all of them. On that list……

Oswalt must stay healthy and start pitching like an ace again. (He is apparently hurt now, and hasn’t consistently looked like an ace in quite a while. But this is still very possible, if not likely.)

The big three must continue to hit at a pace at least around their career averages. No matter what, pitching will not be the strength of this team. More often than not we will needs to score early and late. (If they stay healthy this may be the safest bet in the list. They all look good at this point, and provide some protection for each other.)

We all saw the difference Matsui made to this line up we he came off the DL….even those of us (like me) who thought it would not matter. But, he also needs to stay healthy and his career says that is not very likely. (Yes, Loretta and Blum can fill in. But, it isn’t the same. And, then you end up with someone like Tomas Perez sitting on the bench.)

Bourn and Towles both need to be more productive. Bourn has shown some promise of late. But, even if he had started hot he hasn’t been around long enough to prove consistency. Towles has shown very little….which is a surprise to me. I thought he would adjust and hit at least .250-.260 with a little extra-base pop. The Astros simply cannot support a below average pitching staff and two nonproductive spots in the lineup. (I love both these guys, but based on history the odds of them both being successful are not good. Erstad could play most days if necessary. Catcher is troublesome. Ausmus has never been known for his bat. Management obviously does not really want to bring up Q….)

Pence just needs to be solid. Stardom is not necessary at this point. .275 or better, some power, cut back on the Ks a little and everything will be fine. (This looks very possible, and there is potential for more.)

Assuming Wigginton eventually starts to hit a little bit someone needs to find him a magic glove. Again, with this pitching staff there cannot be dead zones in the lineup. The big three will not get it done every night, and if this guy is going to be in the lineup he is going to have to bring a bat. And, this pitching staff needs all the help it can get in the field. So far Wiggy has made Lamb look like a gold glove. (Fair chance that he will hit .250. Almost no chance on the magic glove.)

The bullpen has to be able to consistently hold leads over the last three innings. The closers job seems to have become a bright spot after a nightmare start. Before that it looks like Brocail\Geary\Wright. Brocail is in his 40s. Geary is hurt. Wright is a rookie. (I see very little hope that this group will be consistently productive over the course of an entire season. I see the possibility, but it seems too much to ask.)

So….

Be prepared to call up Q even if no one wants it to be necessary.

Try to find someone from RR or CC that can bring a power arm to the bullpen.

Consider not being so patient with those starting pitchers at CC.

Consider giving starts to Blum/Loretta at 3B.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a big trade because we have nothing to bargain with.

I like the idea of landing Paul Byrd. Nothing special but consistent and established he is. Especially without having to pitch to AL hitters. I don’t think we’d need to give up too much to get him either, considering the Indians are loaded on pitching, I mean they’ve only got seven legit starters in the majors plus more down under. Maybe we could sent them Tommy Manzella + someone else? I’m not high on Manzella…he seems like Everett except he’d hit 240 instead of 230…

I don’t think Moehler looked bad at all last night! He held them to 3 runs, and that’s more than a couple of starting pitchers have done in the last week! I like Brian ALOT! I think he has more than proven himself the last month. Sampson

well…….let’s see what happens tonight. I have a feeling this won’t be one of his best starts…

Cooper had better watch out with the “we are going to ride with Roy as much as we can” talk.

He may just make Roy so angry, he does’nt care.

NOW….the Astros must address the Borkowski dilemma. ASAP! He is not the strike throwing reliever he has been the last two years.. not even

close. Nieve looked ok…alittle wild, but I think once he settles down he will be ok, my only

thought is who goes down when “our little lefty”

comes back?? Do you think they will bring up Cassell??? The “cardiac kids” will be back tonight with a win!!! Becky:)

Power arms in the bullpen (good point CJ) – we have four: Valverde, Brocail, Geary, and Nieve – just have to get Geary back and watch Nieve to see if he becomes more like he was – because he’s not there yet. But three is enough, if they all stay healthy!

If you missed my comment at the tail of yesterday’s thread – Bork looks like he has nothing – poor location and minimal movement – needs to go to RR!

Actually, the Astros don’t have the option of viewing Moehler’s starts as that of a #5. The reason is they haven’t been getting a lot of innings from Backe either and who knows how Chacon will fare in the long run. He didn’t make it to the fifth in his last start. The point is the Astros will soon wear out their bullpen if they don’t get more innings from their starters. When Sampson is going good, he’ll give you at least six to seven innings. Even in his last start which wasn’t a good one , he was able to pitch six. Therefore, while Moehler has performed admirably so far, he’s going to have to show he can pitch more than five innings to be considered a long term option the remainder of the season.

Yes, the Astros need to add a decent starting pitcher. But I don’t see how it is feasible, both from the standpoint of whom might be available and what little trade bait the Astros can offer. The Astros missed some free agent opportunities, such as showing no interest in Lohse, but that is water under the bridge.

Given that situation, perhaps the Astros would be better off to look for some strong relief pitchers at the deadline. Given the current starting rotation, a stronger bullpen is a necessity. Last night’s game (as well as the prior D-Back’s series) has shown us how the top NL teams have multiple power arms in the bullpen, in contrast to the Astros. Maybe Nieve will prove to be an answer, but I doubt it. Relief pitchers can be acquired more easily than starters at the trade deadline.

Long – emphasis on long, summer grind. What the Astros starters need to do is go 6+ more often than not and not give up more than 3 runs during their turns – everything will be fine if that happens (that’s a 4.50 ERA – not asking a lot).

Pitching help – for me, and I can’t beleive I’m saying this, the Astros need a flame thrower if they bring up or get another starter. Someone that brings 94+ heat to offset the other guys. But I do not expect one to be available, so Hernandez (did I remember that right) down at RR might be the only option.

If the Padres have a fire sale – take Maddux before Wolf and Young if you can get him (would take more than we can afford to give up most likely – although we have 2 almost ready for prime time OF’s at RR???). But do NOT settle for another location type guy that isn’t left handed – heat or live with what we have, Maddux is the exception.

Send down/designate/whatever Borkowski and/or Villareal. Move Sampson to the bullpen (he seemed to really excel in the bullpen) and replace his spot in the rotation with Cassel.

Also, do something with Wiggington. He couldn’t even bend over yesterday to get a ground ball. Even with Blum and Loretta making errors because of rustiness and not above average skills, both are much better than Wigginton. I didn’t like him from the time he came to the team. I have a friend who is a Pirates fan and has been telling me ever since that I will really learn to like Wiggington. Hasn’t happened yet, and I don’t see it happening in the future.

We dont really have anyone in the minors to trade for an average major league pitcher let alone a good pitcher. We dont have any pitchers dominating AA or AAA that could help out after the all-star break.

I think this team is stuck with the rotation it has. And unfortunately with questions surrounding Wandy and Oswalt…the rotation might not be getting any better.

I think we should stick with Sampson for now. Give him 4 or 5 more starts. Take out his disastrous start against Colorado and he is performing just like you should expect a #5 pitcher.

The Astros have used seven starting pitchers so far and I expect they will end up using ten before the season is over. So, who will the other three be? Clemens? Paulino? Reineke? Houston? Better options come from the list of free-agents-to-be. Paul Byrd, Randy Wolf, Mike Mussina, Derrick Lowe are the type of pitcher that could help if available at the trade deadline. They of course will cost a minor league arm.

I think Bourn will improve. He is beginning to stay back on the ball.

Sampson/Moehler: I am not sure why everyone is so down on Moehler. No one thought he would stick last year, yet he put in a decent performance and is doing likewise this year. I think we can count on 8-10 starts from him this year at about league average. Sampson should probably go to the pen. He is just hitting too many bats.

The Astros are dead average for the year in pitching, 8 of 16 teams in ERA. Ditto for thier defense. They are 11th in OBP however. The biggest single difference maker as I see it is to get Bourn on base more.

My recipe for success:

-Get Bourn’s OBP up

-Find some pitching depth

-Rely on the following guys in the bull-pen:

Wright

Byrdak

Valverde

Brocail

Geary

Neive

All of the others either get mop up duty or go get hot dogs for the others.

When I think about our Astros and contemplate the line up, I can smile. When I contemplate our defense, I can smile. I can even manage a bit of a smile considering our bull pen, but when I just consider the rotation, I get this nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach. It just seems like something bad is going to happen. Like you said if Roy goes down for several weeks, we’re doomed. Can Sampson, Moehler and Backe maintain their somewhat mediocre play (granted sometimes it’s been better than mediocre, but sometimes a lot worse) and the team still manage to win consistently?

Also I don’t like this seeming friction between Roy and Cooper. What’s going on there? If Coop thinks he stands any chance winning a power play with Roy he’s delusional. He needs to apologize (if that’s what it takes) and both of them get over it already!

I will continue to pull for them, but after watching last night’s game I have to agree with the national pundits. They are a nice second tier team with a great offense, but that’s it. They don’t have the pitching to be able to win close games against good pitchers. Not that Lilly is that good, but the Cubs bullpen sure is.

Roy isn’t the same Roy. Going 7 innings and giving up 3 or 4 runs isn’t bad, but an ace is supposed to be able to go 7 innings and give up less than three on a fairly regular basis. Roy isn’t capable of doing that right now, maybe ever again on a regular basis.

We’re going to have to stick with Bourn. He brings a good defensive game if nothing else. I could imagine him being a defensive replacement and them starting Erstad in his place in the post season but its hard for me to picture Wade declaring him a failure.

I agree its very hard to imagine this rotation being successful in the post season assuming they could get there. What I don’t know is what Wade might do to bolster the rotation or what that might cost. Advisedly and based on his track record so far I’m going to leave that to him.

RoyO will have to be healthy, but somehow they are winning games even without RoyO at his best. That murderer’s row Wade bought for our entertainment is hard to beat. If RoyO is really hurt (and I guess nobody can know that isn’t in the clubhouse) they better DL him now.

As we sit today this club can contend for the playoffs but this rotation will get smoked in post season play. What are the options for upgrading the rotation? Last nights game was a perfect picture of the team as it currently stands. We got a good not great performance from our starter, but if the offense falters we are in deep trouble. That said, you need at least a #3 guy to really bolster this rotation (and really a #2 is what you want). Is that possible?

As to center field, no changes. Bourne is doing better and Erstad can play if needed.