(PhysOrg.com) -- James Clay Moltz, an associate professor in the department of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, has published a commentary paper in the journal Nature where he warns of a possible space race involving many Asian nations, possibly leading to an arms race.

Moltz writes that despite denials by the major Asian players, there exists the beginnings of a space race among the most technologically advanced countries in the area. In the lead of course is China, which besides the United States and Russia, is the only country to have put a person in space on its own. Other Asian countries actively involved in space technology include India, South Korea and Japan, though others such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan are working on building a presence as well.

Japan of course, has been actively involved with the International Space station, and India has been putting nerves on edge by mixing its space technology with military goals by building rockets capable of carrying a payload all the way to Beijing. The country has also launched its own rockets into space to deliver satellites, though it’s not yet achieved the broad range of successes of the Chinese program.

The problem with an Asian space race, Moltz contends, is that it builds an arena of unhealthy competition bred out of historic geopolitical rivalries. It also wastes resources, but that’s not something that should concern other countries. What should he writes, is the possibility of an Asian space race morphing into an Asian arms race, something that could impact virtually every nation on Earth.

The current situation, he explains, is a collection of Asian countries who are unwilling to work together to meet mutual goals such as can be seen with the European Space Agency (ESA). Instead, individual countries work independently, quite often duplicating work done by other countries both in Asia and in the west, resulting in secretive programs that have as a goal beating one another to the next level, rather than building programs that serve the national, or international good.

What is perhaps most chilling about an Asian space race is the way China, which is the clear leader, has gone about its space program, highlighted not by its triumphs in manned exploration, but in it’s destruction of one of its dead weather satellites by an anti-satellite weapon back in 2007. Not only did that action contribute to the vast collection of space junk, but it sent shock waves through the entire international community as it demonstrated very clearly the types of technology China has been secretly working on. And because of its leadership role in the Asian community, the action has likely set other countries to develop their own such weapons.

One other worrisome offshoot of the space race is the impact it might have on those Asian countries unable to join in. Pakistan, for example, a country with nuclear weapons, has voiced concerns over the missile technology that India has developed and has repeatedly made it clear that any actions by India it deems a threat to its own survival would be met with all out war, including the use of nuclear bombs.

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54 comments

It also wastes resources, but thats not something that should concern other countries

I'd disagree. The national economics are interconnected mutually, so that every waste of resources stresses the economy of the whole world. On the other hand, what else the western countries may expect? When they developed some technology, they can just expect, other countries will develop it too, whenever possible. Before some time I explained here, the existence of large and small countries doesn't make problem for international stability. The problem arises from situation, when one country is becoming richer or poorer faster, than the other countries, which increases the risk of war. So, if you want to keep the international stability, don't support the Chinese import, if you don't have to. Support the cold fusion, which will make the East Asia countries independent to the fossil fuel export from China.

In a world where the economy is linked globally, super powers that can afford a space race likely will not attack each other... so what's wrong with another space race? Perhaps it will be good for individual societies to work towards staking a claim in history as "first to land a man on mars" or similar feats of ingenuity.

It doesn't seem like we're headed towards that semi-utopia now but it makes life a little easier to believe it's possible

In a world where the economy is linked globally, super powers that can afford a space race likely will not attack each other...

Ideally, yes. but it could go the other way. Meaning: some nations might not be able to afford NOT to participate in a space race - even though their economies aren't in good shape. Case in point would be the Soviet Union. They could not afford to have the US dangling the threat of ICBMs over them so they had to sink money (they didn't have) into the cold war arms race. The result was: they went bankrupt.

As to 'afford' - most all nations have outstanding debts (even China). If we purely go by that then no nation could invest in anything.

Perhaps it will be good for individual societies to work towards staking a claim in history as "first to land a man on mars" or similar feats of ingenuity

Nationalistic colonialism leads to world wars.

The first "real" world wars (excluding the greeks and persians,) happened during the colonial period when explorers were staking claims to distant continents and islands.

Nationalistic claims of land on Mars or the Moon could lead to global calamity and the weaponizing of planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system with lasers and even eventually a new class of warheads in the gigaton range.

After all, if you need to hit the enemy's nuclear missile silo on an asteroid, you need to kill it in one hit, because they too wll have laser defense systems. So then people will build even bigger, more powerful hydrogen bombs, which are scalable to any size imaginable.

International treaties are sort of worthless, because the "Bad guys" never follow the treaty anyway.

If it really takes another "cold war" space race and space militarisation to finally encourage humanity to commit significant resources towards spaceflight again, then screw the treaties and welcome our new multi-megaton Battlestars! Maybe when the Chinese militarise the Moon western spaceflight (and western politicians) will finally wake up.I think true space colonisation is not possible without at least some space police force, so space will be weaponised sooner or later anyway.. Thats just the way we are..

Yes, yes, all signs point to humanity struggling to maintain fresh food and water supplies while fighting amongst each other for the worlds energy reserves. Yes, many people are very petty about the nationalism of "land claims" and if these people get in power it can lead to war. History shows that people elect fighters more than lovers.

My comment was an optimistic one, hoping that humanity can look beyond the need for casualty and go back to something akin to the original Olympics: nations pitting athletes against each other instead of fighting. If only we could have a non-detrimental battle of the wits to see who could push our species to its pinnacle... if only...

I think true space colonisation is not possible without at least some space police force,

You are aware that space is big? I'm not even talking about interstellar space, or interplanetary space, or even the space between the Earth and the Moon - but just the space in which our current batch of sattelites orbits around Earth.

Good luck establishing a police force that can get to any point in that tiny part of space within a week or so - let alone in time to react to any kind of emergency.

My comment was an optimistic one, hoping that humanity can look beyond the need for casualty

Ghost, given an infinite amount of resources, it's technically possible to create a fusion bomb (hydrogen bomb) of any size. The sun works on the same principles. Obviously, it becomes impractical to create bombs over a certain size.

Largest thermonuclear weapon: Tsar Bomba, the test of which was actually scaled down for safety reasons. There was nothing limiting them from going larger

"Global Climate Change" was adopted as the common enemy of all nations in ~ 1971 [1] or ~1975 [2] to save the world from the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation as part of international agreements to:

Case in point would be the Soviet Union. They could not afford to have the US dangling the threat of ICBMs over them so they had to sink money (they didn't have) into the cold war arms race. The result was: they went bankrupt.

The Soviet Union didn't go bankrupt because of the arms race. It went bankrupt because in the 80s the Saudis have unexpectedly and sharply lowered their prices of crude oil and undercut the Soviets. The USSR petrol-driven economy took a major hit after that and they began mindlessly borrowing (their credit rating was quite good back in the day), just like the US is doing now. Then the Afganistan war and other wars slowly and surely sealed its fate. The USSR was a ticking time bomb since the 80s, because of oil prices and not so much because of the Cold War. That little known fact is not common knowledge, of course, since the West was all too happy to officially blame the collapse on their own superiority.

Ghost, given an infinite amount of resources, it's technically possible to create a fusion bomb (hydrogen bomb) of any size. The sun works on the same principles. Obviously, it becomes impractical to create bombs over a certain size.

"The largest pure-fission bomb ever constructed had a 500 kiloton yield, which is probably in the range of the upper limit on such designs. Fusion boosting could likely raise the efficiency of such a weapon significantly, but eventually all fission-based weapons have an upper yield limit due to the difficulties of dealing with large critical masses. However there is no known upper yield limit for a fusion bomb."

And I thought all fusion bombs got most of their energy from fission? Silly me.

NanoQC is learning to GOOGLE. Its not the info he finds, but what he thinks he can do with it, which is the problem.

Not all countries look at space technology from a standpoint of enhanced destruction capability. Most other countries are pursuing space from a knowledge and understanding standpoint.

I agree with this statement. Most countries, with the exception of those who have nuclear weapons capabilities, are NOT pursuing a militarized presence for outer space. Common sense and the hope for peaceful coexistence between all countries and governments, however unrealistic-seeming to some, is the prevailing goal for scientific research by most countries. They understand that they would be powerless to stop a nuclear war anywhere, so they become the real peace makers in the hopes of preventing dangerous situations through diplomacy.

Ghost, you are correct, we use fission as a primer to push the fusion reaction. There is no other way (currently known) to instantly provide the correct environment for a fusion reaction on earth. The major limiting factor in building a bigger bomb, though, is weight. Unless you plan on building a skyscraper-bomb and blowing yourself up, you need to build it light enough to transport.

Besides, if you can blow up an entire metropolitan area with a single bomb, do you really need to make a bigger one?

As for theoretical possibilities: if you're going to argue that there's a limit to the size of a fusion bomb then you have to either disprove the existence of fusion in stars or detail what happens inside a black hole and show, somehow, that fusion doesn't occur. Perhaps Oliver can help you out

Pirouette, why did you post that link? It does nothing to help your argument. FrankHebert is undoubtedly an asshole, but he's a smart asshole and he ran circles around you in your link. It's not worth getting upset over something that doesn't matter

The major limiting factor in building a bigger bomb, though, is weight. Unless you plan on building a skyscraper-bomb and blowing yourself up, you need to build it light enough to transport.

Nano/QC wants to build asteroid-busters for destroying enemy chinese bases, perhaps not realizing the destructive kinetic potential of asteroids traveling at 6 mi/sec. Which is why obama announced the proper military objective for NASA; missions to asteroids and the martian moons... the high ground.

As for theoretical possibilities: if you're going to argue that there's a limit to the size of a fusion bomb then you have to either disprove the existence of fusion in stars

Pirouette, why did you post that link? It does nothing to help your argument. FrankHebert is undoubtedly an asshole, but he's a smart asshole and he ran circles around you in your link. It's not worth getting upset over something that doesn't matter

I disagree that anyone ran circles around me. There was nothing to get upset about a couple of clowns not knowing anything about the topic in that thread, but apparently wanting to reveal that they are perfect assholes. They did a fine job of it too, and it makes good reading for those of our fellow members who are unaware that the assholes exist in Physorg that they may not initially suspect. You might consider it a friendly warning to innocent members. BTW. . .in case you weren't aware, FrankH is a race-baiter. He lied that I sent him a PM with the N word that starts with "nig" the derogatory word that blacks use amongst themselves. He used the whole word 3 times in one thread, very repugnant person.

Here's a link that may or may not be pertinent to the space race. We shall see as things evolve and everything falls into place. The New World Order, and that sort of thing. :)http://www.infowa...-summit/

Here's a link that may or may not be pertinent to the space race. We shall see as things evolve and everything falls into place. The New World Order, and that sort of thing. :)http://www.infowa...-summit/

You really are a moron are you not? At least we now know your enviroental beliefs!!!

America has dropped the ball when it comes to space exploration, so is it any wonder other nations are picking it up? Sure, we could say "we're sharing with the rest of the world in a drive toward free open cooperation with humanity." , which is a nice way of saying "yeah, we're broken, not supported anymore, and selling out."

Whereupon zephir links to a document that says very specifically in the abstract "whatever temperature to which a section of the atmosphere may be heated, no self-propagating chain of nuclear reactions is likely to be started." Very clever of you to make a claim and negate it in the same post.

Callippo. . .let me put it this way. When he's pestering ME, that means he is unable to pester Noumenon, Ryggesogn2, Nerdy or any of the others that he attempts to drive away from Physorg by name calling and telling lies about them. You might say that that is part of the plan, if you will. :)

America has dropped the ball when it comes to space exploration, so is it any wonder other nations are picking it up? Sure, we could say "we're sharing with the rest of the world in a drive toward free open cooperation with humanity." , which is a nice way of saying "yeah, we're broken, not supported anymore, and selling out."

The climate of enthusiasm has changed, both economically and politically. It's probably just a temporary setback until we "clean house", so to speak. I remember all the excitement in the air when Neil Armstrong stepped out onto the Moon's regolith and said his famous words. We were enthusiastic about manned missions then and years after. . . .but too much has happened since that time, and America is not the same as she used to be. It's like a part of us has died.

As early as 1985-86 a conspiracy was entered into between the climatologists of China and America. For nearly thirty years these conspirators have kept the people quarreling over less important matters while they have pursued with unrelenting zeal their one central purpose.Every device of treachery, every resource of statecraft, and every artifice known to the secret cabals of the IPCC are being used to deal a blow to the prosperity of the people and the financial and commercial independence of the country.

That's almost identical to a paranoid screed written in 1895 against the Populists. Change a few words and BLAMO instant conspiracy!

I doubt humans will even make it to type 1 civillization. However, if they do manage to make it to type 1 civillizaton, type 2 won't be hard.

By the way....people are so insensitive...they try to promote misunderstandings in the society, there exists no proof that any Asian country is trying to invade anyone. As far as I can tell, only Americans and European Union is continously invading the rest of the world. Look at the entire middle east....its all messed up. The Euro Union and Americans have spy bots everywhere...even in South Asia and East Asia...one was recently caught by the Iranians.

If this world gets screwed before becoming a Type 1 civillization, I would not be surprised. Just look at the Americans, European Union invading everyone's ass secretly and spreading poisons worldwide. And ofcourse the craziness going on in the Middle east. World War 3 scenario = USA, Australia and Euro Union VS Entire Asia, Middle East, and Russia.

By the way....people are so insensitive...they try to promote misunderstandings in the society, there exists no proof that any Asian country is trying to invade anyone

I don't believe in feelings, but in objective reasons of wars. Remove these reasons and we could forget the silly human nature for ever. One reason now is, the human civilization is getting poor fast, because the fossil fuel sources are getting depleted. We are like protozoa, which become cannibalistic under poor life conditions. Just implement the cold fusion and we'll experience a piecefull period again. It's as simple as it is and it has no meaning to speculate about it.

@The _Physicist. . . .I doubt the human race will ever become a Type 1 civilization. There are just too many differences that may never be resolved before an Armageddon happens. Callippo is right about likening humans to protozoa. But in the case of humans, it is the humans with the poor life conditions who will become cannibalistic toward the humans who are better off economically. The Chinese Communists are very patient which is a good trait in some ways. Red China means to take over the whole of Asia and Southeast Asia and they will have the ability to take over and quickly when the time comes. Our Comrade Obama is biding his time to make it so as he whittles away at our faux Capitalist system and U.S. Constitution Laws. I think that the Communists and their sympathizers in Australia will welcome the overthrow of their own government and embrace the Communist Chinese when they come to reeducate the Aussies or eliminate those who refuse.

@Callippo. . . .could you please provide us with any evidence that Cold Fusion is a viable supply of energy to make electricity. Could you also include valid links to websites that explain Cold Fusion and the names and addresses of those who are actually working on the research into whether or not a Cold Fusion process can result in an abundant supply of energy. I mean to say, I have continuously read your praise of Cold Fusion as worthy of serious research, but so far, I have not seen anything to validate your claims.You might be right. . . .but without your citing of valid sources, everyone who reads your claims will still consider it as nothing but fluff. So do yourself a favor. . .give us the true science.

This silly labellings won't help the building of Type I civilization anyway. You apparently didn't realize, at the wealthy conditions the human society becomes more liberal, under poor conditions every society becomes socialistic and centrally driven. This is deterministic, physical mechanism. We should understand, if we will not replace the fossil fuel for more effective source of energy, then the antiliberal governmental control will become unavoidable at all countries. The USA aren't poor because of Obama (after all, Obama didn't start the economical crisis, the Republicans did) - but the USA are becoming socialistic country, because of economical crisis. USA could become more capitalistic country only through anti-revolution (i.e. the central putsch leading to dictatorship) or by adopting a cold fusion, which would stop their stagnation.

could you please provide us with any evidence that Cold Fusion is a viable supply of energy to make electricity

LOL. Do you realize, that you have no other option anyway, than just to try it? I can give you thousands of links to the cold fusion experiments - but if you even cannot find these sources for yourself, then nobody will help you anyway. We depleted the energetic sources - not technically (there is still lotta oil in the underground) - but economically, because the hidden cost of fossil fuels (including the price of redistribution of energy and the price of oil wars) becomes higher, then the economical benefit of it. The fossil fuels aren't sufficient to maintain sustainable development already, because their mining is more and more expensive. The actual price of oil has nothing very much to do with it, because it's kept low artificially. Yet.

Before years the civilized world did become richer in essentially two ways: through technological progress and via finding of transoceanic colonies. The finding of America ended the feudalism era in Europe, the exploitation of coal, steam and electricity helped to start another industrial revolution. But the nuclear energy was not so large achievement, because its exploitation is costly and dangerous and it started the era of nuclear confrontation. Now we have to find another wealthy colonies at the extraterrestrial space (which we still haven't) or start to use the cold fusion. Everything else is just a step back again. The so-called renewable energy sources aren't environmentally clean and they're material and resource costly. We can use them, but we will destroy the rest of life environment gradually, which will end the agony of human civilization.

NanoQC is learning to GOOGLE. Its not the info he finds, but what he thinks he can do with it, which is the problem.

Actually, I had that memorized.

Eidetic Memory

Especially for visual, but also often for auditory.

Usually doesn't seem to work with text, though.

But yeah, I pretty much can't forget movies, pictures, or video game levels.

I didnt have to "Google" it, because I remember watching that video back when I first encountered it. In fact, I've posted links to it several times here in past discussions, because Dr. Kaku addresses other relevant subjects.

Point is, you're wrong again, Ghost.

I didn't use Google to find that.

Even if I did, so what? I'd probably just memorize it automatically anyway.

Yes I know you are superman with a superconducting brain. Let's see what else - egomaniac with an inferiority complex? Self-will run rampant?

You imagine you can do what teams of scientists working for months cannot. You are oblivious to evidence that proves you cannot. You imagine your rantings here at physorg are somehow impressing thousands.

I would know exactly what you suffer from, and know exactly how to fix it, if I suffered from the same level of delusion as you do. But I don't so I can only make a guess that you are some kind of lunatic.

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