With massive protests demanding governmental change in Egypt,
Jordan�s King Abdullah II heeded protests in his own nation on Tuesday [February
1] by replacing his prime minister. The New York Times said King Abdullah named
Marouf al-Bakhit�who previously served as prime minister from 2005�07 and is a
former general and Jordanian ambassador to Israel�as the new prime minister.
Jordan and Egypt are the only two nations in the Arab world that have full
diplomatic ties with Israel. The protests in Jordan have generally not demanded
King Abdullah�s resignation, unlike in Egypt, where dismissing President Hosni
Mubarak has been the protestors� primary goal.

The New York Times noted that directly criticizing the king
in Jordan is banned. Jordan�s four weeks of protests have focused on the economy
and political reforms. The royal palace targeted those points in the official
announcement regarding the prime minister change.

According to The New York Times, the statement said Bakhit is
to take �practical, swift and tangible steps to launch a real political reform
process in line with the king�s version of comprehensive reform, modernization
and development.�

Dr. Assaf David, an expert on Jordan from the Harry S. Truman
Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of
Jerusalem, told Bridges for Peace on Tuesday (Febraury 1) that the appointment
of Bakhit was expected, but the timing was not. �The king doesn�t like to be
seen as acting under pressure, and what he�s done right now is basically acting
under pressure,� said David. �So that means that he assessed that things
necessitate this change right now.�

While things can change, David noted that Abdullah�s rule
does not seem to be in jeopardy for the time being. �I can�t say if it�s going
to expand beyond this [calling for the removal of the old prime minister],� said
David. �I can�t see right now any major opposition force calling for the removal
of King Abdullah. That would be really a red line in Jordan, to say so publicly.
Not to suggest that it doesn�t exist privately�these calls, this expectation
maybe, that someday it would happen�but I can�t see it taking place publicly
right now.�

Perhaps the biggest question now is whether the protestors
ultimately will be satisfied with the government shuffle. In Jordan, where there
are millions of Palestinians, there are two primary opposition groups
protesting: the traditional Islamists opposition and the Transjordanian group,
which includes public sector employees and retired military officials. David
believes that Bakhit will satisfy the Transjordanian opposition, which he said
is �very important.�

However, appeasing the Islamists with his appointment is not
a given, despite the fact that David said Bakhit�s reform vision is �quite
similar� to that of the Islamists, even if it may be different �in terms of
pace.�

According to The New York Times, the Islamic Action Front,
the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, was not satisfied by
Bakhit. The newspaper quoted Zaki Saad, head of the political bureau of the
Islamic Action Front, as calling Bakhit a �very bad choice.� Saad was willing to
see if Bakhit had changed with regards to his openness to dialogue.

David said that Bakhit is more open to dialogue with Hamas.
�I do expect [their] getting closer to Hamas. That might be a very likely
outcome of this appointment,� said David. �Bakhit prefers to have closer
contacts with Hamas, as he sees this Islamist force as the new face of
Palestinian society, the new face of Palestinian politics. So basically he calls
for and has been calling for mending fences with Hamas for the last two, three
years.�

While he can�t predict what will happen, David said that
shift to Hamas could come in a shrewd, secret manner rather than a dramatic move
that is a big blow to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority�especially as the US
may not appreciate such a step from their ally. However, despite his interest in
talking to Israel�s enemy, Bakhit�s appointment shouldn�t signal a shift in
Jordan�s relationship with Israel. �I don�t expect any change on this issue,�
said David.

While it remains to be seen if things will calm down in
Jordan, David believes King Abdullah made a shrewd move with Bakhit, who after
leaving the prime minister�s post before did not follow the government-line in
his comments regarding some policies. So he�s not entirely an insider�even if
David said he is a member of the Transjordanian elite, a senate member, and a
�seasoned politician.�

�I think that the choice of this man is really clever right
now,� said David. �Because on the one hand, he is not a total dissident or in
opposition to the regime, but on the other hand, he does symbolize a change.�
Now it remains to be seen as to whether his level of change and his slower
approach to that change will be enough to ultimately halt the protest movement
in Jordan. �