World Cup Wednesday: the three most even games of the first round

In their game against Denmark, the Peruvians will look to maximize their chances of advancing to the knockout stages.

The kick-off to the 2018 Russia World Cup is tomorrow and with it, all the expectations and aspirations from fans and players from all over the world will be met and crush during the month-long tournament.

The group stage has some very attractive games –for example, Spain vs Portugal right off the bat on Friday– but the stories for the first round will probably go as planned for the most part, as the football giants have been evenly placed out among the groups.

Brazil, Germany, France, Spain, Argentina and Belgium are all expected to coast through to the knockout stages, where the real drama will begin. However, if the last two World Cups are any indication, there will be one major flop and the target could be the Germans as both Italy and Spain have gone out in the group stage of the World Cup where they went in as reigning champions.

This looks hardly the case, though, as the Germans have been given a relatively easy group that they are expected to top. Many experts, though, don’t expect the German side to reach the final, though they have been reached at least the semifinals of every major tournament since they hosted the World Cup in 2006.

With that being said, it is the underdogs who will try to make the most of the group stage not only to get out of the group but maybe even top it, avoiding an unfavorable crossing in the round of 16 and maximizing their probabilities of going deep into the quarterfinals.

The Google World Cup schedule has installed in a “win probability” feature into each of the games of the first stage, giving each team a probability to win as well as a draw probability for the match. After reviewing the 48 games that make up the group stage, we have identified the three most even games that will prove crucial for the teams’ hopes of advancing to the next round.

First off, it’s Peru vs Denmark on June 16. The two teams share group C with France and Australia. The French are expected to collect all nine points and top the group, but the playing field is wide open for either of the remaining three to capture the second spot. Australia are a famously tough opponent in World Cups, Peru have qualified for the first time in decades, and the Danish side come into the tournament inspired after qualifying in spectacular fashion and beating Mexico 2-0 in their last friendly. Since France is expected to beat Australia in the first match of the group, the winner of the Peru vs Denmark match will see their probability of advancing greatly increase, and the loser will see theirs diminish. Google gives a 30% win probability to Peru, a 30% probability of a draw, and a 40% win probability to Denmark.

Mexico vs Sweden will likely determine which of the two national sides goes on to the next round.

The most-even game of the tournament game comes in Matchday 2 of 3, when Nigeria faces Iceland in June 22. The two teams share Group D, which has been dubbed this competition’s “Group of Death”, with Argentina and Croatia. Again, Messi-led Argentina are expected to top the group –though they barely qualified and have been very inconsistent– and even though Croatia is largely believed to make second, the Nigerian and Icelandic sides may not have many stars, but they are one of the best integrated teams in the tournament.

Both teams’ likeliest path into the round of 16 is through a loss with Argentina, a draw with Croatia and an ample win at this match, so they advance on goal difference. Expect a high-scoring, very offensive game from two very spirited sides. Google gives a 38% win probability to Nigeria, a 30% probability of a draw, and a 32% win probability to Iceland.

In Matchday 3 of 3, comes the second toughest game to bet on, according to Google, when Mexico clashes against Sweden in what everyone expects to be the battle for the second spot of the group. The third game is usually the toughest of the group stage, particularly for competitive sides like these two teams, who are used to qualify but usually lose to the giants in the knockout stages. By now, most groups, if not all, will have one team qualified, and in the case of Group F that is expected to be Germany.

Both Mexico and Sweden also share the group with South Korea but logic says that they will both beat the Asian side, who could very well go home with zero points. Even if the group delivers an unlikely scenario where Germany, Mexico and Sweden are in contention for the top two spots, this match has the added bonus of looking to secure the first place and avoid playing Brazil in the round of 16, as they will likely top their group. Google gives a 39% win probability to Mexico, a 30% probability of a draw, and a 31% win probability to Sweden.

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