Thursday, September 27, 2007

A failed bluff at an AAX flop

I got a bit bluff-happy with this hand. It's similar to the one I posted the other day, but this time I may not have left myself enough of a stack on the turn for the bluff to be big enough. Or maybe my opponent just made a good read.

I don't know...this is another situation where I felt strongly that he didn't have the Ace, and I didn't believe he would be able to call a river bet without it. This time, it didn't work out.

3/6 6-max*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to smizmiatch [Qs Td]1 foldsmizmiatch raises to $212 foldsgmauction calls $15 from BB*** FLOP *** [Ac 6h Ah]gmauction bets $30smizmiatch calls $30 (Maybe this was the biggest mistake of the hand. I wanted to look like I was slowplaying, but a raise may have given myself more credibility. However, I wouldn't have had enough chips left to make a move on the river if I had raised here.)*** TURN *** [Ac 6h Ah] [Jd]gmauction bets $102smizmiatch raises to $250 (Too small?)gmauction calls $148*** RIVER *** [Ac 6h Ah Jd] [3s]gmauction checkssmizmiatch bets $343, and is all ingmauction calls $343 (I'm surprised he called with just a J ... what can he beat except a bluff?)*** SHOW DOWN ***smizmiatch shows [Qs Td] a pair of Acesgmauction shows [Qc Js] two pair, Aces and Jacksgmauction wins the pot ($1,288) with two pair, Aces and Jacks

3 comments:

If he called the raise on the turn with the J he's calling a less-than-pot river bet, no question - he has to have made the decision as to whether his hand is good. I think the only card that can win for you on the river is a K, especially Kh. If I'm going to get frisky here I'm raising to $300+ on the turn to tip the math a little, since opponent is probably either good or dead on this board.

There's meta-value in being able to fire that river shell that you'll get back later, probably - obviously people are going to try to pick you off when you reload - but if the turn bet fails I don't think a river bet wins often enough on this board to be profitable, since the only likely fold that beats you is the k-high flush draw.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. With weak-tight players in 6-max, they'll assume when they hit the J on the turn they have the best hand and will call you down regardless. I've lost 3 bullets against this type of player plenty of times. Check-folding the river is appropriate here.