Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

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As the Cancellation Bear hides from predicting the renewal of any NBC sitcom save Parks & Recreation until the last possible moment, he's happy to headline the fact that Deception is certain to be canceled. That hadn't made the headline earlier. Now it has.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I have created a new directory, tell us what you think.
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Monday
8:00 The Voice/
[NEW] The Voice Kids*/
Biggest Loser
10:00[NEW] The Sixt Gun (or some other drama)

The monday will be the ‘must listen’ day, of course because of The Voice.
* This show will not beat ‘The Voice’ ratings, but is a must have for NBC.
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Tuesday
8:00 Parks&Recreation
8:30[NEW] Single-Cam Comedy
9:00[NEW] MJ Fox – Comedy
9:30[NEW] Welcome to the family – Comedy
10:00[NEW] Drama (Hatfields & McCoys*)

Less voice is more seasons. So skip Tuesdays!
Fox is the only comedy competition and family comedies do not compete on the same audience as fox.
* If I read the description it looks like a light drama, perfect on Tuesday.
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Wednesday
8:00[NEW] After Hours*
9:00 Chigago Fire
10:00 Revolution

The night of the drama, so if the viewers come to watch, there is no reason to leave.
* This could be a big hit with enough promotion. Welcome New ‘ER’ (or better, MASH)!
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Thursday
8:00 Community
8:30[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy
9:00[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy (the one who could be the biggest hit)
9:30[NEW] Multi-Cam Comedy
10:00 Law&Order:SVU

Night of the comedy, welcome back ‘Must See’ TV?
When The Big Bang is finished, they can so to NBC. Community is the only one who can fill the dead slot.
SVU is there to safe the night if everything have bad ratings.
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Friday
8:00[NEW] Dracula
9:00 Chigago Fire
10:00 Hannibal

The night of the dark fantasy. The same reason as Wednesday, when people like grimm, they could watch the whole Friday.
On other Fridays they could fill everything with cheap reality crap.
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Saterday
8:00 After hours (R)/
Chigago Fire (R)
9:00 SVU (R)
10:00 SNL (R)

Drama Night, we saw by ABC drama is popular on Sunday last year.
* This new show is perfect with the Apprentice viewers.
** At this slot all the 18-49 demo’s are low, so no competition for Parenthood.
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.
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There are enough fantasy pilots for Friday and ‘Go On’ is a backup plan for Tuesday.
We have ‘Ready for Love’ and ‘Dateline’ for other slots, all the other shows are canceled.

So what do you think?

TimsDale4ever

That picture is disgusting.

BxActor

Should have been already lol

Rita

Why did you downgrade Deception from likely to certain to be cancelled two weeks ago despite stable ratings? You still haven’t explained it here, unless I’m missing something. Inside information?

Jazz

Is that little bear under eggs with a pat of butter as a pillow? Boo to Deception but the writers sealed their fate. You can’t take 6 or 7 weeks to become good when you only had 11 weeks to work with. Oh well. It was a fun ride. I will miss it.

Darkridedan

Not a bad schedule K: I’m unsure if moving Parenthood is the best idea. I do like dramas for NBC on Wednesday to counter ABC’s comedy line up and Friday’s dark dramas to counter CBS and ABC’s QUALITY reality shows.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Why did you downgrade Deception from likely to certain to be cancelled two weeks ago despite stable ratings? You still haven’t explained it here, unless I’m missing something. Inside information?”

Ratings fell to a 1.1 for two episodes before the 0.1 uptick in the finale.

NBC may well renew a sitcom that hit a 1.1 rating at some point this season, but they’re not going to renew a drama that fell that low. Their drama situation is far less desperate than their sitcom situation.

lll

@TimsDale4ever
THIS!!!

greyfm_dan

Personally I thought the picture was kinda cute. (I’m pretty certain the bear is made of some kind of hash & isn’t intended to depict eating a real bear.) Different strokes for different folks, though.

Anyway, I’d planned to post about the Tuesday comedies since they’re back with The Voice this week, so forgive me if I’m hijacking a Deception thread…

I think Go On’s future will completely come down to these last 3 weeks. One would think it has to get a bounce tonight with The Voice lead-in. Assuming it does respectably there, it moves to Thursday, which seems to be what NBC may have in mind for next season if they renew it. I’d say, with The Office lead-in, if GO can pull at least 1.4, it’s probably a safe bet for renewal. 1.2-1.3 might be enough to pull of a renewal (thanks to NBC’s lack of better options), but it’s definitely more shaky ground. 1.1 or less and it’s dead.

Of course, all that’s assuming it doesn’t lay an egg tonight. If it does, that could torpedo its renewal prospects regardless of how it (realistically) does on Thursday.

Common ratings sense would say New Normal is dead. But this is the PC darling on NBC we’re talking about. I’d say it could get a mercy renewal if it pulls around 1.2-1.3 the next 2 weeks after The Voice, but that would be solely because NBC is feeling generous and/or wants to keep Murphy happy.

ddddddddddd

Deception is terrible show! It rightfully deserves to be canceled. NBC thought they could also have a hit show by piggy back off Scandal’s success…NOPE!

THE OLD MAN

I thought the picture was cool. I would venture that the cancelation bear should be confident enough to start munching on 1600 Penn. At least I would think so.

TVDude

Deception never had a real chance when Revolution aired behind The Voice and Wednesday dramas out performed it. Toss in Parenthood’s decent Tuesday performance and Grimm’s decent Friday performance and there’s five dramas to renew.

The comedies, that’s very hard to predict. I would love to say “NBC will keep some of them around and renew Community, Whitney, and Go On”, but in all honesty, it’s a hard guess. I would say it goes like this: Go On>Community>Whitney. Community’s produced by Sony, who would probably love 100 episodes like they did with Rules (on CBS) this season. That will make it more valuable that the already cheap to produce Whitney. Go On will probably be more expensive, but I have a feeling it will out perform both of the other shows in ratings in the coming weeks, especially with tonight episode behind The Voice.

karlene

I love Deception and I’m sure it will be back!!!! NBC is working towards the future and will rebuild the network. See ya next season

Tommy M.

It’s funny, I advocate CBS expanding their comedy hours, but NBC should really shrink theirs down to 1 night. Since they don’t have any real hits I think they’d be better off launching an entirely new night on Thursdays and either hold P&R back to replace something that’s DOA, or if the new block works hold it until midseason. Cancel the rest of the comedies and start over. They need to do something drastic in order to fix their comedy problem.