Good Monday, folks. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Rounds of heavy rain are rolling across the bluegrass state, bringing the potential for more flooding. It’s a very active pattern that continues to show up in our region, but it will soon get back to more of a winter look, but not before we get in on a lot of rain.

We continue with a Flood Watch for much of the state and surrounding states…

Flood Warnings are already out for many rivers, including parts of the Ohio River. This map shows any current warnings for the region…

Minor to moderate flooding is currently forecast for many areas along the mighty Ohio. Here’s a look at forecasts for select points along the Ohio…

Keep in mind, the heaviest rains arrive later tonight into Tuesday. As that system pulls away, a touch of wraparound snow will be possible Tuesday night.

From there, another system moves through by Thursday and Friday with rain to a touch of wraparound snow. The main aspect of this system is that the cold behind it has staying power. That pushes the storm track farther south for the next system that follows it…

You can see that same system showing up on the Euro…

The GFS Ensembles continue to point to increasing snow chances as the storm track shifts south over the next few weeks…

As always, we shall see!

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your radars to help track the action…

24 Responses to Tracking The Flood Threat

I dont know: Maybe the northern half of KY looks more favorable for snow but southern and SE KY looks mostly wet even after Friday….need about 100 more miles southeast track of future lows yet before I will be even slightly interested.

I am over 100 miles north of you and the wedge will ruin any snow chances for me. Still don’t see anything forming in the Gulf and moving up the east coast, that’s what we need . I am afraid until then we’ll be looking at rain and backside flurries.

So your saying that if cold air was in place the precipitation falling now would not be snow. We need the northern jet to buckle to have the cold air and then game on. If something developed in the Gulf right now and moved up the east coast we would have just more plain rain.

I agree with that totally. You have to have the cold for sure. But the storm has to come up the east coast for us in eastern KY and WV to get a decent snow. Anything coming from any westerlie type direction with blow the cold air out due to the counter clockwise winds. If it moves up the coast we don’t get that southeind component.

Daily SOI is now -19.02..Average SOI for last 30 days -0.59..So you can see the trend..MJO is almost in phase 8..Believe the lag time before we feel the effects is 7-10 days..As i said before believe someone will see some snow around the 20th..Right now i’m favoring the Western part of state..Will go out on a limb and say they receive at least a 10 inch snow..Basing this on the SOI tanking and MJO going into a cold phase along with a -NAO developing..Could be totally wrong but it’s a weather blog..Sue me..lol

LOL…that is how I feel too as I put a lot of my own “thoughts” out there and ended up apologizing to the blog a few weeks back when this winter turned out to be NOTHING CLOSE to what I had told people I thought it was going to be. No one has sued me yet!:)

I am with you guys. Last September was the wettest single month in record keeping history at Charleston NWS. I think they received 13 inches of rain the old record was 11 inches set in June of 1974. And September and October are normally the driest months.

We have in Harlan just last week but no one injured here. The one last week didn’t affect any homes; however, back in June of last year, there was some damage in a few different locations of the county due to mudslides affecting both houses and vehicles!

I may be wrong, but I think March will end up as our snowiest month this year, especially if the trends for the oscillations continue and ACTUALLY CHANGE. Besides, other than the far northern KY counties, a few inches within one month will make March the snowiest…lol

Check out this point forecast from the NWS Honolulu, HI for the summit of Mauna Loa

Overnight

Frequent snow showers. Areas of freezing fog. Low around 26. Wind chill values as low as -1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind around 120 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values as low as -1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 110 to 120 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph.

…It should be interesting to see the camera shots when daylight breaks. One of the cameras is already off line.

It’s at least nice to see the fantasy snowstorms back. Latest gfs for a big one next Tuesday. Last week the models were all green. So, progress. Not saying it will happen, of course because this winter says it won’t