Philip Morris, CEO Proctors Theatre, presented the Empire State Live Production Tax Credit program at a press conference Wednesday morning, March 5, 2014, at the Legislative Office Building in Albany, N.Y. The tax credit would apply to productions that begin their on-stage activities in Upstate New York. (Skip Dickstein / Times Union) ORG XMIT: MER2014030512230376 less

Philip Morris, CEO Proctors Theatre, presented the Empire State Live Production Tax Credit program at a press conference Wednesday morning, March 5, 2014, at the Legislative Office Building in Albany, N.Y. The ... more

Especially in this weirdest of Broadway seasons, this year's Tony Awards Sunday really are two separate contests. There is the public contest, where presenters hand out the trophies, packs of producers race for the microphone and creative types make teary speeches. And then there is the hidden one, perhaps more important, which involves jockeying for position in regards to which show comes out best on the televised broadcast on CBS at 8 p.m.

When it comes to future box-office returns, which are a life-and-death matter for several of the wobbly new shows this season, the second contest arguably matters much more.

For an example of how prominent TV exposure can overcome critics and a lack of box-office momentum, one need only look across the Atlantic to the experience of the truly wretched Queen musical, "We Will Rock You," which is closing Sunday in London after a whopping 12 years, 4,600 performances and a cumulative audience of close to 7 million people in London alone.

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Phil's picks

Proctors CEO Philip Morris is a Tony voter. Here's what he has to say about favorites he thinks might win in a few top categories.

Best Play: ''All The Way''

Amazing and fun telling of the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through an intimate look at Lyndon B. Johnson. Great acting

Best Musical: ''A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder''

May not win, as ''Beautiful—The Carole King Musical'' may be more of a favorite, but I love the storytelling and old-fashioned theatricality of ''Gentleman's Guide.''

Amazing use of media and original book art. Tougher than the original, which is closer to the book.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play: Bryan Cranston, ''All The Way''

See above, re: LBJ.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play: Audra McDonald, ''Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill''

Audra, Audra, Audra. Changes herself and even her voice to the declining days of Billie Holiday. Closed my eyes and heard Billie sing. Amazing.

On TV

2014 Tony Awards

When: 8 p.m. Sunday

On TV: WRGB Ch. 6, CBS

Host: Hugh Jackman

Few shows in the modern era have gotten worse reviews: "pathetic" and "stupid" were among the kinder descriptors from the London press. But former Queen member Brian May somehow scored a gig on a 2002 TV broadcast celebrating the Queen's Golden Jubilee, playing guitar atop Buckingham Palace, and, as the Daily Mail reported in London this week, "We Will Rock You" was saved and launched. For a decade.

"Rocky," with a few Tony nominations — but not one for the all-important best musical — could really use a Brian May moment on the Tonys if it's to topple its many critics and improve weekly takings that barely cover its colossal costs. Maybe Sylvester Stallone himself should weigh in for a bout with the show's genial star (and Tony nominee) Andy Karl. "Rocky" certainly will have some competition for attention.

"Beautiful: The Carole King Musical" has Jessie Mueller, the favorite to win a Tony for best actress in a musical over Kelli O'Hara, from the now-closed "The Bridges of Madison County" (likely to win best score for Jason Robert Brown). But "Beautiful" also has King herself in its back pocket. The famously reclusive singer has embraced the show and its young star from the Chicago theater, and she's expected to make an appearance on the broadcast, maybe singing alongside Mueller. Aside from the bump King would bring to its already healthy box-office returns, "Beautiful" could well win for best musical.

"After Midnight" is another unusual contender for the top musical prize, given that it is basically a revue. It has crafted relationships with top stars, including Fantasia, k.d. lang and Gladys Knight, some or all of whom you can expect to watch singing their faces off on your television sets next Sunday night. "After Midnight," about jazz at The Cotton Club in Harlem, has employed a guest-star strategy, which not only has allowed it to attract big names who don't want to commit for a year or more but also likely will pay real dividends on the Tony broadcast by allowing it to make it seem like every great singer in America is in the show (or soon will be). This could well be a model that others replicate.

"A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder" is a traditional, somewhat picaresque musical comedy and does not have that kind of multibarreled star power. But it's hardly out of the running for the best musical Tony, with the block of voters from the Dramatist's Guild tending to like this show, a favorite of writers and composers who admire its masterful construction and deft execution. "Gentleman's Guide" could well win. But it will be a tough sell on the touring circuit, and history shows that fact alone can derail a worthy show at the Tony Awards.

"If/Then" does not have a nomination for best musical, but it does have a bona fide (and Tony-nominated) star in Idina Menzel, who can do her show plenty of good at the Tonys, even if she is unlikely to win a prize herself. The show's score should translate well to television, given that most of the lyrics deal with relationships, regrets and urban life as it is lived. Menzel, of course, dominated Twitter traffic after the Oscars, but that cannot be replicated, unless John Travolta could be persuaded to repeat his garbled introduction. (The producers of the broadcast, should try to talk the Travolta into doing precisely that.) Like "Rocky," "If/Then" will need to take its case to the people. And Menzel is its ambassador.

Neil Patrick Harris, the strong favorite for the best actor in a musical category for "Hedwig and the Angry Inch," made his case to America long ago, mostly by refusing to be anything other than himself. He'll be showing up on the telecast in full glamour mode as Hedwig, she of the botched sex change and the angst-ridden career, but he'll be pressed into further duties alongside the host of record, Hugh Jackman.

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Jackman has to follow Harris' superb hosting job at the 2013 Tony Awards, an especially successful broadcast that did not make the mistake (as did the Oscars this year) of spending too much airtime trying to get up close and personal with the kind of gritted-teeth celebrities who don't do credible public intimacy at all well. The Tony Awards understand the ceremony works best when it is also a celebration of the art of theater and the real workers therein. The 2013 production numbers were the best on record, but with both Jackman and Harris on hand, the 2014 possibilities are myriad. Surely, Jackman will not resort to the selfie.