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The small point spread and giant total suggest the Holiday Bowl between Baylor and UCLA Thursday at Qualcomm Stadium (9:45 p.m. ET, ESPN) could come down to which potent offense has the ball last. Don’t expect either defense to come up with a clutch stop.

The Bears are first in total offense and 119th in total defense. UCLA is 20th in total offense and 72nd in total defense. Jim Mora Jr. revitalized the Bruins in his first season, but first-year coaches are just 39-68-2 against the spread in bowl games since 1990.

The Line: UCLA -2.5, 82

Line movement: Baylor opened as a 1-point favorite at the Las Vegas Wynn on Dec. 3, but UCLA took enough action to become the favorite just a few hours later. Bettors then jumped back on the Bears, again making them the chalk, but action swung back the other way and has been on UCLA since. As of Wednesday morning, UCLA was between a 2- and 3-point favorite, depending on the book.

The Bears have covered six of their last seven games as underdogs.

The total opened as low as 79 and has been bet up well beyond 80.

UCLA is scoring 35.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game. Baylor is scoring 44.1 and allowing 38.2 points per game.

Eight of Baylor’s 11 lined games have gone over the total. Nine of UCLA’s 13 games have gone over the total.

Notable trends and stats:

Baylor has six players currently considered NFL draft prospects, according to NFLDraftScout.com; UCLA has eight draft prospects.

Baylor went 7-3 ATS vs. bowl teams

UCLA went 6-2 ATS vs. bowl teams.

Teams playing in bowl games in their home state are 37-27-2 against the spread the past six seasons.

Bears outlook: Baylor jump-started a three-game win streak to end the regular season with an upset of then-No. 1 Kansas State. The Bears’ losses came against West Virginia, TCU, Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma.

QB Nick Florence leads the dynamic offense, with receiver Terrance Williams and running back Lache Seastrunk his top weapons.

Bruins’ Outlook: Safety Tevin McDonald, the team’s second-leading tackler, is suspended for a violation of team rules. UCLA’s losses came against Oregon State, California and Stanford twice. The Bruins had won five straight before losing to the Cardinal in back-to-back weeks, including the Pac-12 Championship Game.

RB Johnathan Franklin should find plenty of holes in the Bears’ porous run defense. Franklin averaged 130.8 yards on the ground this season. Freshman quarterback Brett Hundley is a dual-threat who threw 26 touchdowns and ran for nine.

The Linemakers’ take: We’re concerned about UCLA’s motivation, since the Bruins were just one win away from playing in the Rose Bowl. Instead, they have to settle for a trip to San Diego and the Holiday Bowl. But the Bruins do have the stronger power rating: UCLA 113.1, Baylor 110.7.

The total is enormous and was still rising as of Wednesday. Only one of UCLA’s games had more than 80 points scored in it, a 45-43 Bruins’ win over Arizona State. Five Baylor games, however, have eclipsed 80 points. Somewhat surprisingly, neither offense was overly efficient in the red zone. With the total soaring past 80, it may take just one long drive ending in a field goal to keep this game UNDER the total. We’ll be patient and see how high the total climbs, before taking a stab at the UNDER.