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Like Randy points out, if you've fought over 400 times in one way, you have to actively combat your instincts to change them.

That doesn't happen in one night. That takes several camps to correct. And until he does, I think that particular "weaknesses" will be a hole rival pros will seek to exploit.

Because he is such a prodigy and a fast learner -- and can walk on his hands! -- I still favor Lomachenko by a 7-5 decision in a seesaw matchup where both men come out with their stocks on the rise. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see a draw or even a victory for Russell.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

If G-Russ Junbug doesn't weasel outta this bout, he will be exposed as a slow-mo dodo -- the small-brained bird. What Fam Russ says, I don't believe a word.

V-Lo is going to give him a whup-@$$ a go go. If I were still in Cali, and at da fight, I would be hollering at J-Lo. OMFG! I know it! I'm such a he ho!

But if The Biggest G -- God -- Made anything better looking than a damsel's arse, He Kept it to himself! Hehehe!

But in all seriousness, G-RJ is far from being similar to a young Roy Jones Jr. RJJ had true loosey-goosey speed to burn. G-RJ has trying-to-be fast flaunting and histrionics. And about boxing, he still has a lot like to learn. Holla!

Like Randy points out, if you've fought over 400 times in one way, you have to actively combat your instincts to change them.

That doesn't happen in one night. That takes several camps to correct. And until he does, I think that particular "weaknesses" will be a hole rival pros will seek to exploit.

Because he is such a prodigy and a fast learner -- and can walk on his hands! -- I still favor Lomachenko by a 7-5 decision in a seesaw matchup where both men come out with their stocks on the rise. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see a draw or even a victory for Russell.

loool Hi I'm here. I'll break it up into parts as you can only do 4 pictures per post..

Not necessarily picking Vasyl to have an easy fight.

You are right in thinking I've already thought this over and created a prediction over it..

I'll like to first say in the voice of Floyd Mayweather Sr. 'You can't hit whatchur arms can't reach!'
I also think Kellerman and Lampley probably had me in mind when he would talk about the 'few' on boxing forums and websites who hype Lomachenko.

Not going into depth/technical in this opening statement prediction:
People tend to say Gary has an amazing jab. I don't necessarily agree and it's not going to be in full effect in this fight.
Gary likes to use his t-rex (61 inch reach) jab a LOT, and likes to throw combinations. However, he only lands the jab when his opponent is static or is just laughably inept. This is going to be hard for Gary given Lomachenko's non-linear, come forward style. Gary likes to use his jab to get into his rhythm, so in the earlier rounds this may be quite difficult.

Gary also is a lot shorter at 5'4 and has a tiny 61 inch reach. Vasiliy will be pressing the action but he is good at commanding whilst also maintaining reasonable distance at the same time, making it that extra bit more difficult for Gary to land the jab.

Gary's style, developed and CULTURED by his Olympic background is actually a curse in disguise for this fight. Lomachenko will be given time and space to be effective and pick his shots better.
Whereas in the Salido fight, Salido was coming forward, using his size and roughness to throw shots to get points on the basis of effective aggression regardless of whether the shots were landing or not, Gary wouldn't be able to provide that same effective aggression…that's not to say Gary will not be able to provide any sort of 'aggressive' threat, Gary will be throwing combinations…but…Gary will hit Lomachenko's arms A LOT during the fight, whether it be via jab or combination, this will make the fight appear to be more competitive than it actually is during the first few rounds, and at certain stages in the latter rounds when Lomachenko may choose to protect his lead and fight off the back foot more.
People who particularly have a bias against Lomachenko will be like 'oh look, effective aggression by Russell Jr, he's pimping Loma'. Those sober from bias should take extra notice of this.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

I need to see Lomachenko throw combos that aren't necessarily going to land as a part of improving where the pacing strategy is concerned i.e

As the fight goes on, I expect Lomachenko to time Gary better, which could be a reason for a stoppage.

Lomachenko Dealing With Gary's Combinations
Lomachenko deals well with dudes like Gary who like to come forward fast with combinations. Gary is going to try and rush Lomachenko to the ropes at times, but Lomachenko will show good defence here. Gary will get aggression points here if he can force Loma back - although he doesn't have the strength to get Loma RIGHT TO THE ROPES. I expect Loma to use his footwork to get around that, or maybe Loma can gain significant advantage by flipping the switch from defence to offence here and turn Gary. Lomachenko's timing with his counters will be a big factor here.

The only reason why Gary was able to penetrate these cab drivers is because their second line defence responses to Gary's offence were weak as ****. Gary's onslaughts also tend to be initiated by a right hand to the centre of the body - they're incredibly difficult to land on Lomachenko and due to what I mentioned at the start of this paragraph, he's not going to be able to effectively follow through.
Gary can land some good shots to the side of the body, something Lomachenko isn't very good at defending. I don't really expect this to have a significant accumulative impact however.

Lomachenko and Aggression
The reason why I say Loma is going to press the action is:
1. Programmed from the last fight
2. Egis Klimas has said this is what Lomachenko would be focussing more on
3.
Light on his feet, yet strong intent in his steps forward. Lomachenko the tough boxer-puncher, here we come.
If Lomachenko doesn't press the action, he could risk losing points based on Gary's arm shots and the occasional headshot.
But really, what is Gary going to do against a stronger dude with intent, who uses lateral movement very well and maintains a reasonable distance? Also guess what else Lomachenko is doing in that clip? A jab being used, and quite often too tbh which will be good for neutralising Gazza.
I can show examples of how Lomachenko can press the action in more detail later..

GRJ's Speed
Those who think Gazza's speed is going to be dangerous need to stop pretending that Lomachenko hasn't seen speed before..he's been up against fencing style dudes, under a three round construct.
Sure, Gary Russell The Younger, you can throw fast combinations...ARE DEY EFFECTIVE DOEEE?

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Gary Russell Jr's Defense
In short, I'm talking about his high guard, arms up. Lomachenko will land his huge body shots.
15:14

Gary also relies on his athleticism and reflexes which should help somewhat.

The Curious Case of Gary Landing a KO Punch on BenjaminCHENKO's Button
14 KO's in 24 fights against bums. That screams a complete lack of power. It's a legit **** KO record against these bums.
Why the **** KO record?
I feel there may be some raw power is there but the utilisation of his style and the way he point scores means getting those power shots going is usually foregone. At 126lbs I wouldn't call him strong either. Considerably against Lomachenko he's going to have a very tough time being in position to land huge shots.
Look at all of the KO's (well at least the more recent ones)…do you really expect Lomachenko, the precision engineer, to be so out of position? When have you ever seen Lomachenko keep himself open to something like this…

Nevertheless, GRJr has an intelligent use of the right hook. Boy does that look very powerful against bums. I've seen Lomachenko take right hooks on occasion, he shook them off as if it were nothing.

Lomachenko goes in with a WBO no.7 ranked fighter who was the WBO International Featherweight Champion coming off a win against Rey Bautista. Ramirez hadn't been stopped. And what happened?

Statements may have been made based on the Salido fight that 'Lomachenko doesn't have power'. That was because they were only watching a safety-first, focus-on-survival Lomachenko, on first gear only until the 12th round where the friggin welterweight Salido admitted he was genuinely hurt and we could see that anyway.
Gary does land flash knockdowns, have a look at a lot of those knockdowns though, they tend to be the result of his opponents poor footwork, positioning.

The Middle Man - Sergey Vodopyanov
This context will be used to just summarise what I stated.
Gareth The Younger was a very good amateur but eventually lost to Lomachenko's two-time son and World Gold Medalist southpaw, Sergey Vodopyanov (who Lomachenko beat at his own game).
There are similarities between Vodopyanov and Loma.
Vodopyanov used to beat Gary to the punch virtually every single time....Sergey uses his size and style advantages over him at mid-range well, too. Whatever happened to those combinations, Gary? Oh yeah, you just got into a match against a guy who can maintain distance better than you, and is longer, rangier than you, hence why we can't see them really can we, breh?
Those advantages that Gary possesses in his game that he uses against his opponents was simply inferior to magnitude of the same advantages Sergey has to his general game.
The Sergey-Russell Jr match:

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Closing ThoughtsLomachenko will win by KO (either in rounds 2-6, or 11-12) or a 118-108 UD.
Lomachenko will look good in this fight. Lomachenko has seen too much of that style in the olympics. There's a chance that I have underestimated Gary's power, as I've said before, it is a Curious Case.

With this prediction, there's a higher propensity for error to be made here because Gary has been feasting on bums and Loma can make dramatic changes or maybe not execute this well.

Incidentally, I'm actually very happy Team Lomachenko are analysing this fight:

Because of this, maybe they can account for things I fear in my prediction.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Beautiful presentation AJ and its difficult to dispute. Im still wondering why GR took the fight. before testing himself against stronger opposition.....but I'm glad its happening. May the best man win.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

The most glaring thing about this fight in my eyes is why Team Russell excepted. Not having faced anyone of similar caliber it behooves me why a boxer who has appeared to be basically a protected fighter would take a fight of this magnitude.

I'm not basing my assessment of Lomanchenko's ability soley on AJ's pre-scouting report exclusively, I'm also going by what I've seen.... Some boxers are winners throughout their career, from their golden gloves years all the way up to their first pro championship fight. (Mayweather for instance)

Others don't win gold medals during their amateur careers and yet bloom later during their pro careers... like Holyfield, Tyson, Jones just to mention a few household names.

Some perform at the top level and burn out in the pro's like David Reid and Howard Davis Jr.

And others like GGG, Calzahge, Froch and Bhop, seem to simmer like steak and age like fine wine, hitting their stride after they've passed the 30 year old mark.
also,.... observing 5-7 year old amateur film doesn't reveal the whole story..... it is indicative of talent, but a lot can change between amateur and pro.

Tommy Hearns evolved from a "pretty good" stringbean who moved and bicycled a lot behind the jab, in the amateurs and evolved into a lethal assassin in the pro ranks, ..... the stories go on and on.

Lomanchenko is not yet the fighter he's going to be,... but Russell is not the same fighter he once was. to be honest there is no way I'd bet a dime on Russell. but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if he showed something special on fight night.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Fantastic job AJ, I admire the intelligent support of your fighter. One thing that has struck me about Vasyl is that he doesn't always move with his opponent when he throws. You don't necessarily have to sit down on every punch, but if you miss the first two and your opponent is backing off at an angle, it's your time to slide up and pop them where you find a gap. Your opponent is moving away so you must move to. You can see it clearly in the video of VL missing his combination on Salido.

Roy Jones did it masterfully, he would follow you running across the ring peppering body and head until you fell. Vasyl has the feet, the speed and the combinations to do it, he just needs to let go of the amateur ropes and grab the reins of the pro game. This is it now, his time is almost here and it's time to start fighting like a true world champ.

As for Gary, I think you're slightly downplaying his chances. He will land, Vasyl is not invincible. The one thing that Gary and his camp must ensure does not happen is Lomachenko gaining confidence. I've watched him throughout his career and once he gains that confidence he starts to look unstoppable. I believe it was against a Kazakh in the WSB, it was fairly even in the first but Lomachenko started the 2nd better, gained confidence and started frustrating the Arlan. The Kazakh tried to make a fight out of it but Lomachenko wasn't having it and kept boxing him to pulp. Once he's in his rhythm you're all but lost.. Or so that's how the script goes..