Thursday, December 19, 2013

McGriff Belongs in Cooperstown

By Dan Trammel
@HighwayToHall

IBM Presents: You make the call.[1] A
man, let’s call him Fred, is a college student. All of his courses are graded
on a curve. He receives all A’s and B’s his first 2 years of school. His final
two years, however, many of the other students cheat. As a result, most of
these students score higher than Fred who chose not to cheat. Even though his
test scores are comparable to what they were his first two years, after the
curve is factored in, he is now a C-student. As a result, he no longer makes
the Dean’s List and he does not graduate with Honors. Upon graduation, it is
discovered half the school cheated and the ensuing scandal rocks the nation. None
of the cheaters can find jobs. Unfortunately, neither can Fred. Potential
employers continue to focus on his grades. “You didn’t make Dean’s List.” “You
didn’t graduate with honors.” “Your grades don’t compare to other people in
your class.” Fred just wants to scream, “They all cheated. Their cheating
prevented me from graduating with honors. Why are you comparing me to them?”

How do we resolve this situation? What would be the fair
thing to do? You make the call.

While you ponder that, let’s discuss the Hall of Fame
candidacy of Fred McGriff.

First, here is McGriff’s career line:

PA

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

10174

1349

2490

441

493

1550

.284

.377

.509

.886

Next, let’s talk about the pre-PED era company McGriff
shares with these numbers. Through 2000, 9 players in history retired with
10,000+ plate appearances and an OPS of .886 or higher. The list is so
impressive, first names are not necessary: Ruth, Musial, Ott, Cobb, Mays,
Aaron, Speaker, Robinson, and Schmidt.[2]

Let’s look at another list. Through 2000, 17 men collected
2000 hits, 450 home runs, 1500 RBIs, and 1000 walks. Once again, we will skip
the first names: Ruth, Williams, Gehrig. Foxx, Mantle, Musial, Ott, Mays,
Aaron, Robinson, Schmidt, McCovey, Killebrew, Jackson, Yastrzemski, Murray, and
Winfield. In fact, as of McGriff’s retirement in 2004, this list included 20
men, the aforementioned 17 Hall of Famers, and McGriff, Bonds, and Palmeiro.[3]

That is certainly a good start to support McGriff’s
candidacy. What else can we present? We discussed McGriff last year when we
evaluated each player on the ballot, let’s present that information again.

In 1992, McGriff
led the National League with 35 homers, the lowest total to lead the National
League in a non-strike season since Ralph Kiner hit 23 in 1946. Although his
home run numbers may look pedestrian now after the “Juiced Ball Era,” McGriff
was one of the top power hitters of his time, finishing in the top 10 among all
Major Leaguers in homers 7 consecutive seasons. How rare is that? Here’s the
list:

Number of times

Player

Years

16

Babe Ruth

1918-33

14

Lou Gehrig

1925-38

12

Jimmie Foxx

1929-40

9

Hank Aaron

1965-73

9

Eddie Mathews

1952-60

9

Mel Ott

1931-39

9

Mike Schmidt

1979-87

8

Gavvy Cravath

1912-19

8

Joe DiMaggio

1936-42, 46

8

Ralph Kiner

1946-53

8

Mickey Mantle

1954-61

7

Napoleon Lajoie

1897-1903

7

Fred McGriff

1988-94

7

Frank Robinson

1956-62

7

Harry Stovey

1880-86

7

Cy Williams

1918-24

7

Ken Williams

1921-27

The list above
contains twelve Hall of Famers, 4 non-Hall of Famers born before Babe Ruth, and
Fred McGriff. McGriff was the last player to join this group and the first
since Mike Schmidt, who in turn was the first since Hank Aaron. Not only was
McGriff one of the top power hitters of his generation, he was a model of
consistency. Fifteen times he hit twenty or more home runs, to join this
illustrious group:

Seasons

Player

20

Hank Aaron

19

Barry Bonds

17

Willie Mays

17

Frank Robinson

16

Babe Ruth

16

Ted Williams

16

Jim Thome

16

Reggie Jackson

16

Eddie Murray

15

Fred McGriff

15

Mel Ott

15

Willie Stargell

15

Dave Winfield

15

Ken Griffey, Jr.

15

Alex Rodriguez

McGriff was a
feared part of any lineup he was in, but never more so than when he was traded
to Atlanta. In 1993, McGriff was traded from San Diego to Atlanta and his
second half tear helped the Braves hold off San Francisco (who finished 103-59)
to win the National League West. That season with the Braves he batted .310
with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs and led them to a 51-19 record after his arrival.
In the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia, McGriff batted
.435 with 4 RBIs but the Braves lost in 6 games. In 1994, McGriff batted .310
with 34 home runs before the season was called because of the player strike.
McGriff led Atlanta to the next two World Series, winning one title in 1995
against Cleveland. In 50 career postseason games, McGriff batted .303 with 10
home runs and 37 RBIs.

All of these
credentials are quite impressive. Unfortunately,McGriff retired with 493 home runs. The strike quite
possibly cost him the 7 home runs needed to reach 500.

Now, this is a
good spot to look at the arguments against him. Let’s begin by looking
at Jay Jaffe’s presentation:

“Despite the lack of 500 homers, McGriff’s case for
Cooperstown appears to have some merit; he scores 100 (“a good possibility”) on
the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor for his five All-Star appearances, two home
run titles and postseason performances, and 48 (slightly below average) on
James’ Hall of Fame Standards metric, which similarly credits him for career
accomplishments relative to players already in the Hall. That said, he never
won an MVP award and had just one top-five finish in the voting, and he didn’t
add anything with his defense.”[4]

It is certainly true McGriff brought nothing to the table
with his defense. That we can’t change. But what about the other arguments? He
never won an MVP award and had just one top-five finish. Now we get into the
“guys were cheating” argument, as well as the “How do we evaluate Colorado’s
hitters” argument. In 1988, Mike Greenwell finished second in MVP voting to
Jose Canseco. After Canseco’s admission of steroid usage, Greenwell asked,
“Where’s my MVP? [Canseco’s] an admitted steroid user. I was clean. If they’re
going to start putting asterisks by things, let’s put one by the MVP.”[5]
But let’s not stop there. Let’s put asterisks by the MVP voting as a whole. And
not just due to PED-users, but the hitting environment in Colorado.

In 1995, McGriff finished 20th in MVP voting. Dante
Bichette, 1 of 4 Colorado players to receive MVP votes, finished 2nd.
In 71 games in Colorado, he batted .377 with 31 homers, 83 RBIs, and a 1.152
OPS. In 68 road games, he batted .300, with 9 homers, 45 RBIs, and an OPS of
.802. McGriff didn’t have an astounding season, but batted .280 with 27 homers,
93 RBIs, and an .850 OPS in a strike-shortened season (he played in a league
leading 144 games). His home/road splits were comparable, though he hit for a
higher average at home. Should McGriff have finished in the top-5. Who knows?
But thanks to PEDs and Colorado, McGriff’s strongest attributes were
diminished. Players like Palmeiro, Mo Vaughn, and Rico Brogna finished with
higher WARs that season.

Jaffe continues, “In all, he’s 13 wins below the career WAR
standard among first basemen and 6.3 wins—nearly one per year—below the peak
standard. His JAWS falls 9.7 shy of the standard for first baseman, good enough
for 27th on the all-time list…While it would be a nice moral to the
story if McGriff were to gain entry to Cooperstown while those connected to
PEDs remained outside, as it is, he just doesn’t quite have the numbers. It
bears remembering that at least via JAWS, McGriff isn’t being measured against
McGwire and Palmeiro but against those already enshrined at his position, such
as Gehrig, Perez, Eddie Murray, Hank Greenberg and Jimmie Foxx.”

This is the biggest problem with the arguments against
McGriff. They are all premised on false logic. If you look at WAR, OPS+, or
JAWS, you are directly measuring him against all of the PED users. Let’s take a
look at McGriff’s career arch. The following table, with modifications, was
borrowed from ESPN’s David Schoenfield.[6] It
shows how McGriff ranked among first basemen on a yearly basis in several
categories. Note the drop off in his overall rankings between 1994 and 1995.

HR

Rank

RBI

Rank

OPS

Rank

OPS+

Rank

WAR

Rank

oWAR

Rank

1988

34

1st

82

9th

.928

1st

157

2nd

6.2

2nd

5.1

4th

1989

36

1st

92

8th

.924

2nd

165

2nd

6.7

2nd

6.2

2nd

1990

35

3rd

88

6th

.930

3rd

153

3rd

5.2

3rd

5.5

2nd

1991

31

2nd

106

3rd

.890

3rd

147

3rd

3.3

8th

4.3

4th

1992

35

2nd

104

3rd

.950

3rd

165

3rd

5.2

3rd

5.3

3rd

1993

37

2nd

101

5th

.924

5th

144

7th

4.2

8th

4.2

7th

1994

34

3rd

94

3rd

1.012

3rd

157

3rd

4.5

3rd

3.9

3rd

1995

27

9th

93

8th

.850

9th

119

9th

1.5

12th

1.7

13th

1996

28

11th

107

12th

.859

9th

120

11th

1.6

15th

2

13th

1997

22

15th

97

13th

.797

18th

106

19th

0.2

20th

0.9

20th

1998

19

19th

81

21st

.815

18th

111

18th

2.9

13th

2

18th

1999

32

9th

104

11th

.957

6th

142

4th

4

8th

4.6

5th

2000

27

14th

106

8th

.826

18th

110

20th

0.2

24th

1.7

19th

2001

31

10th

102

9th

.930

7th

144

6th

3.7

10th

3.7

10th

2002

30

6th

103

7th

.858

12th

125

12th

2.1

14th

2.7

12th

In 1991, his 31 homers and 106 RBIs were good for 2nd
and 3rd respectively. Ten years later, his 31 homers and 102 RBIs in
2001 ranked 10th and 9th. His .890 OPS in 1991 was good
for 3rd, whereas his .930 OPS in 2001 ranked only 9th. As
such, his 147 OPS+ in 1991, which ranked 3rd, fell to 144 in 2001
and was good for only 6th. Similarly, the 4.3 oWAR in 1991, which
ranked 4th, became 3.7 in 2001 and ranked 10th.

Between 1988 and 1994, among players with at least 100 plate
appearances, only Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds posted a higher OPS+ than
McGriff. In fact, let’s take a look at McGriff’s rankings among first basemen
between 1988 and 1994.

Rank

WAR

oWAR

OPS+

1

Fred
McGriff

35.3

Fred
McGriff

34.5

Frank
Thomas

184

2

Will
Clark

32.8

Will
Clark

32.5

Fred McGriff

155

3

Rafael
Palmeiro

29.9

Frank
Thomas

31.9

Jeff
Bagwell

155

4

Frank
Thomas

28.7

Rafael
Palmeiro

26.5

Will
Clark

146

5

Jeff
Bagwell

23

Mark
McGwire

20.8

Mark
McGwire

140

6

Mark
McGwire

22.8

Jeff
Bagwell

20.5

John
Olerud

137

7

Mark
Grace

21.4

John
Kruk

19.3

John
Kruk

134

8

John
Kruk

19.1

Mark
Grace

18

Rafael
Palmeiro

132

9

John
Olerud

17.8

Cecil
Fielder

16.7

Cecil
Fielder

130

10

Wally
Joyner

17.1

Kent
Hrbek

16.3

Randy
Milligan

128

11

Don
Mattingly

17

John
Olerud

15.6

Kent
Hrbek

127

12

Kent
Hrbek

16.3

Wally
Joyner

15

Glenn
Davis

126

13

Cecil
Fielder

15.3

Don
Mattingly

14.3

Mo
Vaughn

125

14

Eddie
Murray

14

Randy
Milligan

13.1

Alvin
Davis

125

15

Dave
Magadan

13.8

Eddie
Murray

12.8

Hal
Morris

121

16

Andres
Galarraga

13.5

Andres
Galarraga

12.6

Andres
Galarraga

119

17

Randy
Milligan

13.3

Dave
Magadan

11.7

Mark
Grace

119

18

Glenn
Davis

11.5

Glenn
Davis

11.1

Eddie
Murray

119

19

Hal
Morris

9.2

Alvin
Davis

8.9

Nick
Esasky

119

20

Alvin
Davis

7.9

Hal
Morris

8.3

Wally
Joyner

117

McGriff leads in both WAR and oWAR and trails only Thomas in
OPS+. Now let’s look at where he stands between 1995 and 2002.

Rank

WAR

oWAR

OPS+

1

Jeff
Bagwell

48.6

Jim
Thome

47.2

Mark
McGwire

183

2

Jim
Thome

44.4

Jeff
Bagwell

46.4

Jim
Thome

159

3

Rafael
Palmeiro

36.7

Jason
Giambi

39.7

Jeff
Bagwell

155

4

Jason
Giambi

36.3

Mark
McGwire

38.1

Jason
Giambi

152

5

John
Olerud

35.9

Rafael
Palmeiro

33.8

Todd
Helton

142

6

Mark
McGwire

34.3

John
Olerud

30.3

Carlos
Delgado

142

7

Todd
Helton

28.8

Carlos
Delgado

30.2

Rafael
Palmeiro

140

8

Carlos
Delgado

28.6

Mo
Vaughn

24.9

Mo
Vaughn

136

9

Mark
Grace

25.6

Todd
Helton

24.6

John
Olerud

131

10

Mo
Vaughn

22.5

Mark
Grace

21

Erubiel
Durazo

128

11

Tino
Martinez

21.1

Fred
McGriff

19.3

Will
Clark

125

12

Will
Clark

17.2

Tino
Martinez

17.8

Andres
Galarraga

122

13

Fred
McGriff

16.2

Andres
Galarraga

17.3

Fred
McGriff

122

14

Andres
Galarraga

14.5

Will
Clark

16.3

Mark
Grace

121

15

Jeff
Conine

13.2

David
Segui

14.7

David
Segui

120

16

David
Segui

13.1

Jeff
Conine

12.2

Richie
Sexson

119

17

Eric
Karros

12.4

Tony
Clark

11.7

Tino
Martinez

115

18

Jeff
King

11.7

Eric
Karros

11.4

Tony
Clark

114

19

Wally
Joyner

11.3

Richie
Sexson

10

Eric
Karros

113

20

Tony
Clark

11.2

Wally
Joyner

9.2

Sean
Casey

112

He fell from 1st, 1st, and 2nd
from the 1988-1994 time frame to 13th, 11th, 13th
in the 1995-2002 time frame. Take a look at his production during these eras.

PA

R

H

2B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

1988-94

4353

644

1062

186

242

667

619

814

.288

.390

.545

.935

1995-2002

5050

607

1267

222

216

793

586

877

.288

.371

.489

.860

He hit for less power as he aged, and what used to be home
runs turned into doubles. But his production did not fall off to the point his
rankings would drop as much as they did if not for many players altering the
proverbial playing field.

Let’s move on the USA Today’s Paul White, discussing “Why he
shouldn’t be inducted: Because he was never the best at his position in his
era. He never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting, never hit more than 37
homers in a season, never drove in more than 107 runs. At first base, those numbers
don’t rise above a usually strong crowd of peers. Even with his longevity,
McGriff’s WAR is 48.2, 48th all-time among first baseman and below
others who have been passed over for the Hall, including John Olerud, Will
Clark and Keith Hernandez.”[7]

There is a lot to address here. First, with modifications to
WAR, McGriff’s WAR is 52.6, which stands at 27th all-time, and yes,
it trails Olerud, Clark, and Hernandez. However, in looking at strictly
offensive WAR, McGriff’s 55.6 leads Clark (54.8), Olerud (48.1), and Hernandez
(45.6). McGriff’s poor defense cripples his overall WAR. And his great
offensive ability was destroyed by the PED-era in which he was subjected, as
the above tables illustrate. Over the course of McGriff’s career, his 162-game
average consists of a .284 batting average, 32 home runs, 102 RBIs, and a .886
OPS. This from a man who played 140+ games in 14 seasons, compared to McGwire
who did it 8 times. How many players can say that?

One final note: Not only did the PED-users overshadow
McGriff’s consistently good numbers, they also robbed him of that “Wow” factor.
Sometimes, Hall of Fame voters look beyond the statistics. Some voters “award
bonus points for cachet, personal magnetism and a certain “wow” factor. It
helps explain why Ozzie Smith is in Cooperstown and Alan Trammell will probably
never get there.”[8] 30
homer/100 RBI seasons were impressive once upon a time. After the McGwire/Sosa
home run race of 1998, anything less than 60 homers was nothing special. Heck,
Sosa hit 63 homers or more 3 times, and wasn’t the league leader in any of
those years. It was an era which included future 1st ballot Hall of
Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux converting into power hitters for Nike commercials
because “Chicks dig the long ball.”

Every year, members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of
America are sent a Hall of Fame ballot. The instructions state, “Voting shall
be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship,
character, and contribution to the team(s) on which the player played.” Fred
McGriff exemplifies each of these characteristics. He continues to be punished
for the PED-users against whom he competed. Sabermetricians need to learn their
statistical methodologies do not accurately measure a clean player’s
performance during the Steroid-era. McGriff continues to be robbed. It is time
for the voters to correct it.

[1] This is
a reference to a famous 80’s commercial. IBM is not affiliated with this
website in any way. The views and opinions are those of the Highway to Hall
only.