There have been so many twists and turns in the struggle to pass healthcare reform that anyone watching could get dizzy. But the endgame is near. The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, on Friday gave a press conference that suggests she expects movement by the end of next week:

I'm delighted that the president will be here for the passage of the bill. It's going to be historic.

Obama today postponed his overeas trip to help the final push on HCR until 21 March – a smart move, because now it really comes down to he and Pelosi's tag-team pinning down the Democratic waverers. For fans of the West Wing, this is fascinating stuff, a real-life episode of arm twisting and last-minute deals.

So where are we? The only plausible option open to the Democrats is for the House of Representatives to pass the version of the healthcare reform bill the Senate approved back on Christmas eve, as well as the House passing another, separate bill that amends HCR using the budgetary reconciliation procedure. (I'll spare you the details.) Then, President Obama signs the first bill into law and the Senate then passes the second (reconciliation) bill to amend it. Confused? You're not the only one.

The first step in the process I've just outlined will be the hardest: getting the House to pass the Senate bill. Why? The Senate bill differs from the version that the House itself passed: it is more limited, for example, and doesn't include the anti-abortion funding "Stupak amendment" that won it some votes from conservative Democrats.

Can Nancy Pelosi pull together enough votes to get the healthcare bill through the House? Let's put it another way: over the next few days we'll find out whether Nancy Pelosi is one of the more astute parliamentary managers of Congress's modern era. It's going to be tough but my money's on Nancy Pelosi for the simple reason that so far she has done an almost flawless job in getting the Obama administration's agenda through the House.

Obviously it helps that the House has no equivalent of the Senate's filibuster and has a more substantial Democratic majority. That gives Pelosi more to play with. More importantly, Pelosi has already shown that she can steer the passage of contentious legislation through the House. With the additional firepower of the White House, it's a good bet that she can get the 216 representatives she needs to say "yes". What's the hold up now is the Democratic House leadership ironing out exactly what amendments are needed – and to assauge fears that the Senate Democrats will somehow renege on its side of the deal by accident or design.

In the meantime, expect to see many articles such as this, as representatives send messages to their voters back home or attempt to secure concessions. Washington will be agog with such speculation. But until the Speaker actually calls for a final vote – which she won't do until she's confident she has a majority – everything else is just posturing. Because nothing counts until they count the votes.