Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in historyThe mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and droughtFor the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.

Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of MayNorthern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in MayFor the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quietThe 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecastLight and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Quoting RitaEvac:Circulation is moving westward, shear is keeping it from developing, but not killing it. If it hilds on and keeps going west, were gonna see a whole diffrent ballgame in the Carribbean. Eyes on 92L, and hell with local mets on tv and the TWC.

I suppose the saying "survive and advance" applies to, not just sports, but in the case of 92L as well.

Circulation is moving westward, shear is keeping it from developing, but not killing it. If it hilds on and keeps going west, were gonna see a whole diffrent ballgame in the Carribbean. Eyes on 92L, and hell with local mets on tv and the TWC.

Quoting MrstormX:A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLIES LIES ALONG 57W AND SOUTH OF 22N.A CLOSED LOW NEAR 16.5N ANCHORS THIS AXIS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THEBUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN AND THE TUTT NORTH OF THEISLANDS THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTH. DURING THE NEXT18-24 HRS THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS WAVE TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT WITHHEIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE OF 20-25KT DEVELOPS ALONG ANDWEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TOSURGE ACROSS THE LEEWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THECYCLE...INTO PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.CONVECTION IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED AS AWELL ORGANIZED 850-700 HPA CYCLONIC MAXIMA STREAMS ACROSS THEISLANDS. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND SURGINGEASTERLIES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SQUALL LINE FORMING TO THE WESTOF THE WAVE AXIS...AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY...TO QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS PUERTO RICO WHEREIT WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-45MM/DAY.

FURTHERMORE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIONDEVELOPING POST-WAVE PASSAGE LATE ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY/EARLYSUNDAY. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT TO THE NORTH SOME OF THEMODELS PULL THE MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THENORTH...WHILE OTHERS TAKE A BEELINE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TOPUERTO RICO (THE NAM AND ECMWF IN PARTICULAR). EVALUATION OF THESATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA TO THE EAST OF THETROUGH...BUT CENTER OF MASS SEEMS TO BE PULLING NORTH OF18N/20N...DRAWN BY THE TUTT AXIS AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS THEBASIN. IF THIS TRENDS CONTINUES...AND IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LIKELYPOSSIBILITY...WE EXPECT SECONDARY GENERATION TO THE NORTH OF THELEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS FORMING NORTHOF THE BASIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THELEEWARD ISLANDS...WE THEN EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-45MM BY 36-60 HRS...WHILE OVER THE VIRGINISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THIS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY 60-84 HRS.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLIES LIES ALONG 57W AND SOUTH OF 22N.A CLOSED LOW NEAR 16.5N ANCHORS THIS AXIS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THEBUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN AND THE TUTT NORTH OF THEISLANDS THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTH. DURING THE NEXT18-24 HRS THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS WAVE TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT WITHHEIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE OF 20-25KT DEVELOPS ALONG ANDWEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TOSURGE ACROSS THE LEEWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THECYCLE...INTO PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.CONVECTION IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED AS AWELL ORGANIZED 850-700 HPA CYCLONIC MAXIMA STREAMS ACROSS THEISLANDS. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND SURGINGEASTERLIES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SQUALL LINE FORMING TO THE WESTOF THE WAVE AXIS...AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY...TO QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS PUERTO RICO WHEREIT WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-45MM/DAY.

FURTHERMORE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIONDEVELOPING POST-WAVE PASSAGE LATE ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY/EARLYSUNDAY. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT TO THE NORTH SOME OF THEMODELS PULL THE MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THENORTH...WHILE OTHERS TAKE A BEELINE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TOPUERTO RICO (THE NAM AND ECMWF IN PARTICULAR). EVALUATION OF THESATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA TO THE EAST OF THETROUGH...BUT CENTER OF MASS SEEMS TO BE PULLING NORTH OF18N/20N...DRAWN BY THE TUTT AXIS AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS THEBASIN. IF THIS TRENDS CONTINUES...AND IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY LIKELYPOSSIBILITY...WE EXPECT SECONDARY GENERATION TO THE NORTH OF THELEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS FORMING NORTHOF THE BASIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THELEEWARD ISLANDS...WE THEN EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 25-45MM BY 36-60 HRS...WHILE OVER THE VIRGINISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THIS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY ANDMAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY 60-84 HRS.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS APPEARS TO BE MOREINDICATION WITHIN THE EC...UKMET...AND THE GFS THAT AN INVERTEDTROUGH OR WEAK WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BETWEEN THEMONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS. THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WEAKWAVE OR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVINGACROSS THE KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL FIELDS HINT ATLOCAL BREEZES INCREASING A BIT AS THIS WEAK WAVE/TROUGH AXISAPPROACHES...WITH THE 72 HOUR UKMET WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS ON BOTHSIDES OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AS IT REACHES THE CENTRALBAHAMAS. THE 12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE KEYS UNTILWEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTRAPOLATING ALL OF THAT AND GIVEN THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLEAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM...HAVE JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANDINTRODUCED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MONDAY THRUTUESDAY PERIODS. AFTER THIS WAVE/TROUGH MOVES BY...MODEL FORECASTSOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATED A VERY WET AND CONDITIONALLYUNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...SO WILLKEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

Changing topics for a moment to the severe weather, that is one nasty line of storms about to move towards the E-NE towards the Great Lakes area and it covers several states...Someone mentioned a possible El Derecho event for this area earlier.....Looks pretty nasty to me right about now.

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W WILL CONTINUE W AND CROSS 75W TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN FRI AND INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA SAT. LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 16.5N59W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 22N57W WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE LEEWARD TONIGHT...ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC FRI AND FRI NIGHT THEN CONTINUE W-NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A BROAD EASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE LOW AND TROUGH LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. A STRONG MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:That flattening effect you are starting to see on the westernmost edge of the convective ball on 92L is the beginning of that band of 50 knots of sheer that may be about to rip the disturbance apart over the next 24 hours.....Most persistent thing I have seen in quite some time that 92L.....If it survives through tommorow morning, against a literal wall of high sheer, I might change my tune over the future of this disturbance but I don't see it making much further overnight.

The convection, enhanced by the proximity of the TUTT looks great on the enhanced loops but the visible loops clearly show the sheer starting to blow it away......Remnants might survive but I think that orgnization into a TD at this point (over the next 24 hours) is virtually impossible IMHO; it has run into a wall as many have noted.