How 22-23 turned into another ride toward 100 losses

It was just one pitch out of 21,564 the Astros have thrown this year. How could you know this was the one?

It was a 90-mph fastball from Wilton Lopez just like many others, a little down, a little in. You could tell by Jason Castro’s target that Lopez didn’t really miss, but then again on that Saturd ay night in Los Angeles, neither did A.J. Ellis.

Ballgame over. And who could have known that on May 26, it would turn into season over?

The turning point of the Astros’ season as they stand one short of another 100-loss campaign now looks so obvious yet so arbitrary. Maybe it wasn’t Ellis’ three-run walkoff homer but the 0-2 pitch from Wesley Wright that hit Andre Ethier or intentionally walking James Loney in between that turned it.

Going the wrong way

Either way, it’s a play that sticks out so obviously in the march to 100. They were 22-23 going in, riding a four-game winning streak and on a holiday weekend high from beating Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles the night before. Bud Norris was vying for pitcher of the month for May and had the shot to complete one of the unlikeliest stories of the first third of the season — the run to .500.

Fast-forward one rendition of “I Love L.A.” as Ellis rounded the bases and the Astros were off. They lost the next five on that road trip, too, including four at the woeful Rockies as the pitching vanished into thin air. And since they improved to 22-23, they have gone 25-76, a percentage that’s below that of the 1962 Mets, the worst team of all-time.

OK, so it’s a somewhat silly exercise to put a date of death on a team whose autopsy can be written in four words: They weren’t very good.

But it does give us the snapshot of just how things started to go wrong — or go back to normal for a team whose over/under as set by bookmakers involved 99.5 losses.

It was a thorough dissolution for a team that actually outscored opponents 185-171 in the first 45 games. Runs per game dropped from 4.1 to 3.4 and cratered with a perfect game against them three weeks later. Runs allowed rose from 3.8 per game to a staggering 5.6 with the collapse of the self-titled “Regulators” in the bullpen the most stark.

Both the baseball and PR staffs enjoyed talking up the positive run differential even in a season that never topped.500 after 3-2. For decent reason, too, as studies have shown it is a better predictor of future performance than record is, making what the Orioles have done this year beyond exceptional.

But 45 games aren’t a great indicator of future anything, and the correction was made abruptly and painfully.

It’s not all for nothing

Losing 100 was probably the correct course for this team, especially after the parts it jettisoned in collapse. Hang around slightly under .500 for whose good, especially in the type of rebuilding it was going to take? And this second straight first pick and new boobie prize of the largest international player spending pool when they clinch the worst record in baseball in the next week are going to be immensely helpful for a team with no star power to build around.

As we look back now with the perspective of the fire sale that followed the turnaround, the most harmful effects of the collapse come with the individuals whose performances added up to this. You can’t blame this on just the trade deadline action because the Astros went 10-27 from the day of the Ellis game to the day of the Carlos Lee trade that started the frenzy. And those who were traded were part of the problem.

From start (Wandy Rodriguez’s 2.14 ERA before the blast and 5.54 after) to finish (closer Brett Myers’ 1.59 vs. 5.93 disparity) five of the six major leaguers the Astros traded at the deadline regressed from the turning point of May 26 to the day they were traded. Chris Johnson, who upped his stock in the last week, was the exception, hitting for the same on-base plus slugging pre-Ellis and post-Ellis despite some streakiness within.

Not a shock

And Jed Lowrie, whose premium ability, premium position and salary could have landed a better prospect than anybody traded, coooled off slightly and then got badly injured July 14, missing both the last stages of the trading frenzy and the August waiver period.

But on the collective level, nothing about this run to 100 losses really hurts that much. It was a team obviously light on talent that got lighter on talent and did what these teams do, and the fixin’s that come with the worst record will compensate for some of the inability to land truly elite prospects at the deadline.

There is nothing shocking about 47-99 from this group.

Looking back on it, you wonder how they ever went 22-23, but it goes to show that not everybody is the 2012 Orioles. Small runs of success — or in this case just success on a very high grading curve — are most of the time just that exception on the long run to expectation.

<b><center>Oct. 3: Cubs 5, Astros 4</b></center>
The Astros said goodbye to the National League with a walkoff loss at Wrigley.
<b>Record:</b> 55-107.

<b><center>Oct. 3: Cubs 5, Astros 4</b></center>
The Astros said goodbye to the National League with a walkoff loss at Wrigley.
<b>Record:</b> 55-107.

Photo: Smiley N. Pool / Houston Chronicle

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SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 09: Right fielder Jimmy Paredes #38 of the Houston Astros leaps for a two-run homer off the bat of Abraham Almonte of the Seattle Mariners in the seventh inning at Safeco Field on September 9, 2013 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images) less

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 09: Right fielder Jimmy Paredes #38 of the Houston Astros leaps for a two-run homer off the bat of Abraham Almonte of the Seattle Mariners in the seventh inning at Safeco Field on ... more

<b><center>Sept. 29: Brewers 9, Astros 5</b></center>
Dallas Keuchel struggled in his last start of the season as the Astros tied their loss total from last year.
<b>Record:</b> 52-106. less

<b><center>Sept. 29: Brewers 9, Astros 5</b></center>
Dallas Keuchel struggled in his last start of the season as the Astros tied their loss total from last year.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: JEFFREY PHELPS / Associated Press

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<b><center>Sept. 28: Astros 7, Brewers 6</b></center>
Edgar Gonzalez recorded his third win of the season and the Astros avoided tying their loss total from last season.
<b>Record:</b> 52-105. less

<b><center>Sept. 28: Astros 7, Brewers 6</b></center>
Edgar Gonzalez recorded his third win of the season and the Astros avoided tying their loss total from last season.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Mike McGinnis / 2012 Getty Images

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<b><center>Sept. 26: Astros 2, Cardinals 0</b></center>
Milo Hamilton threw peanuts to the crowd during the seventh inning stretch. The Astors won their final home game as a part of the National League 2-0 against the Cardinals behind a strong performance by Bud Norris and a homer by Jose Altuve.
<b>Record:</b> 51-105. less

<b><center>Sept. 26: Astros 2, Cardinals 0</b></center>
Milo Hamilton threw peanuts to the crowd during the seventh inning stretch. The Astors won their final home game as a part of the National League 2-0 ... more

Photo: Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

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<b><center>Sept. 25: Cardinals 4, Astros 0</b></center>
Jose Altuve and the Astros inched closer to having more losses than last season.
<b>Record:</b> 50-105.

<b><center>Sept. 25: Cardinals 4, Astros 0</b></center>
Jose Altuve and the Astros inched closer to having more losses than last season.
<b>Record:</b> 50-105.

<b><center>Sept. 21: Astros 7, Pirates 1</b></center>
Jed Lowrie's three-run home run in the first inning propelled the Astros to their 49th victory of the season.
<b>Record:</b> 49-102. less

<b><center>Sept. 21: Astros 7, Pirates 1</b></center>
Jed Lowrie's three-run home run in the first inning propelled the Astros to their 49th victory of the season.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

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<b><center>Sept. 20: Cardinals 5, Astros 4</b></center>
Right fielder Justin Maxwell, front, dives but misses a ball hit for a single by the Cardinals Matt Holliday as second baseman Jose Altuve watches during the first inning.
<b>Record:</b> 48-102. less

<b><center>Sept. 20: Cardinals 5, Astros 4</b></center>
Right fielder Justin Maxwell, front, dives but misses a ball hit for a single by the Cardinals Matt Holliday as second baseman Jose Altuve watches ... more

Photo: Jeff Roberson / Associated Press

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<b><center>Sept. 19: Cardinals 5, Astros 0</b></center>
A day after reaching 100 losses, the Astros were shut out by the Cardinals.
<b>Record:</b> 48-101.

<b><center>Sept. 19: Cardinals 5, Astros 0</b></center>
A day after reaching 100 losses, the Astros were shut out by the Cardinals.
<b>Record:</b> 48-101.

<b><center>Sept. 15: Astros 5, Phillies 0</b></center>
Justin Maxwell's first inning home run propelled the Astros to their second win in the four-game series.
<b>Record:</b> 47-99. less

<b><center>Sept. 15: Astros 5, Phillies 0</b></center>
Justin Maxwell's first inning home run propelled the Astros to their second win in the four-game series.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

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<b><center>Sept. 14: Phillies 12, Astros 6</b></center>
Fernando Martinez and the Astros looked on in disappointment as they took another step closer to hitting the century mark in losses.
<b>Record:</b> 46-99. less

<b><center>Sept. 14: Phillies 12, Astros 6</b></center>
Fernando Martinez and the Astros looked on in disappointment as they took another step closer to hitting the century mark in losses.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

<b><center>Sept. 13: Astros 6, Phillies 4</b></center>
The Astros got their 46th win of the season, and got Lucas Harrell off the hook thanks to a late rally past the Phillies.
<b>Record:</b> 46-98. less

<b><center>Sept. 13: Astros 6, Phillies 4</b></center>
The Astros got their 46th win of the season, and got Lucas Harrell off the hook thanks to a late rally past the Phillies.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

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<b><center>Sept. 12: Cubs 5, Astros 1</b></center>
Mickey Storey was hit in the face by a line drive from Cubs center fielder Dave Sappelt (17) during the eighth inning of anothe Astros loss.
<b>Record:</b> 45-98. less

<b><center>Sept. 12: Cubs 5, Astros 1</b></center>
Mickey Storey was hit in the face by a line drive from Cubs center fielder Dave Sappelt (17) during the eighth inning of anothe Astros loss.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle

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<b><center>Sept. 11: Astros 1, Cubs 0</b></center>
A run by Jimmy Paredes was all the Astros needed to top the Cubs in the second contest of their three-game set with the Cubs.
<b>Record:</b> 45-97. less

<b><center>Sept. 11: Astros 1, Cubs 0</b></center>
A run by Jimmy Paredes was all the Astros needed to top the Cubs in the second contest of their three-game set with the Cubs.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

<b><center>Sept. 10: Cubs 4, Astros 1</b></center>
After winning a series against the Reds, the Astros returned home and were greeted with a loss at Minute Maid Park.
<b>Record:</b> 44-97. less

<b><center>Sept. 10: Cubs 4, Astros 1</b></center>
After winning a series against the Reds, the Astros returned home and were greeted with a loss at Minute Maid Park.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Bob Levey / 2012 Getty Images

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<b><center>Sept. 9: Astros 5, Reds 1</b></center>
Matt Dominguez gets congratulated by Brett Wallace after hitting a three-run home run off Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto in the third inning.
<b>Record:</b> 44-96. less

<b><center>Sept. 9: Astros 5, Reds 1</b></center>
Matt Dominguez gets congratulated by Brett Wallace after hitting a three-run home run off Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto in the third inning.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

<b><center>Sept. 7: Astros 5, Reds 3</b></center>
Against a first-place team and MLB's best closer, the Astros come back to win with a homer in one of the season's few highlights.
<b>Record:</b> 43-95. less

<b><center>Sept. 7: Astros 5, Reds 3</b></center>
Against a first-place team and MLB's best closer, the Astros come back to win with a homer in one of the season's few highlights.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images

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<b><center>Sept. 5: Pirates 6, Astros 3</b></center>
With the loss, pitcher Fernando Abad dropped to 0-3 on the season. He allowed four earned runs and six hits.
<b>Record:</b> 42-95. less

<b><center>Sept. 5: Pirates 6, Astros 3</b></center>
With the loss, pitcher Fernando Abad dropped to 0-3 on the season. He allowed four earned runs and six hits.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

Photo: Justin K. Aller / 2012 Getty Images

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<center><b>Sept. 4: Pirates 6, Astros2</b></center>
Astros pitcher Jordan Lyles walks off the field afer being taken out of the game.
<b>Record:</b> 42-94.

<center><b>Sept. 4: Pirates 6, Astros2</b></center>
Astros pitcher Jordan Lyles walks off the field afer being taken out of the game.
<b>Record:</b> 42-94.

<b><center>Sept. 1: Astros 2, Reds 1 </b></center>
Jose Altuve runs for first while Matt Downs heads home with the winning run as Altuve's bases-loaded grounder went through the legs of Wilson Valdez to cap a two-out rally in the bottom of the ninth inning.
<b>Record:</b> 41-92. less

<b><center>Sept. 1: Astros 2, Reds 1 </b></center>
Jose Altuve runs for first while Matt Downs heads home with the winning run as Altuve's bases-loaded grounder went through the legs of Wilson Valdez to cap a ... more

Photo: Smiley N. Pool / Chronicle

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<b><center>Aug. 31: Reds 9, Astros 3</b></center>Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart tags Houston Astros shortstop Jimmy Paredes out at second on an attempted steal during the third inning.
<b>Record:</b> 40-92. less

<b><center>Aug. 31: Reds 9, Astros 3</b></center>Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart tags Houston Astros shortstop Jimmy Paredes out at second on an attempted steal during the third inning.
<b>Record:</b> ... more

<b><center>Aug. 30: Giants 8, Astros 4</b></center> Giants outfielders Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence celebrate their victory. Pence was a big part of the Giants' comeback win connecting on the go-ahead single in the seventh inning.
<b>Record:</b> 40-91. less

<b><center>Aug. 30: Giants 8, Astros 4</b></center> Giants outfielders Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence celebrate their victory. Pence was a big part of the Giants' comeback win connecting on the ... more