I focus almost exclusively on PvP, whether solo, small gang, or large bloc warfare. In the past, I've been a miner, mission runner, and faction warfare jockey. I'm particularly interested in helping high-sec players get into 0.0 combat.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

All Along the Watchtower

“All along the watchtower, princes
kept the view. While all the women came
and went, barefoot servants too. Outside
in the cold distance, a wildcat did growl.
Two riders were approaching and the wind began to howl.” - The venerable Mr. Hendrix

Oh, how I do love this new six-week release cycle. No longer do we need to anticipate changes
months in advance. Almost as soon as
they’re announced, we’re quickly in the planning process.

Yesterday, I received my first dread, a close-range Naglfar I’ve named
toothpick. It’s a pretty little ship
that’s pretty much staying in my hangar in Tenal for now. I want to bring it to the front lines in the
FAZOR (cute name, by the way, to whoever thought of it) deployment, but in my
heart I know it’d just have to come on back in two weeks when the madness begins.

And the reason for the impending madness, of course, is Phoebe and the
end of force projection.

The changes are
already happening. PL sold/gave about
three regions to xxDeath because it would be untenable for them to hold
it. N3 appears to be moving from the
southeast to the southwest, which is being wholly abandoned by the CFC. What happens to the southeast is anyone’s
guess, but of course, that region was kind of “what was left” that no one
really wanted anyways.

It looks an awful lot like the null-sec alliances are contracting in
advance of the anticipated reduction in their defensive capability. The reasons why this is the case have been
exhaustively discussed, but what I find interesting here is the metagame being
played out before our eyes.

N3 seems to want to settle into the southwest as quickly as possible,
while the CFC and PL is doing the same in its “core” territory. Alliances and coalitions that previously held
onto as much space as they could have suddenly willingly started giving it away. I find that about-face fascinating.

Of course, it’s based entirely upon pragmatic assessments of the
situation. It’s not surprising that they’re
doing this. Each coalition is headed by
a group of people that have their positions specifically because of their
ability to read a situation and react accordingly. But it’s an intriguing study in human
behavior nonetheless. It’s all about
face.

This isn’t the face that keeps your eyes, nose, and mouth under control,
but rather the face that represents one’s credibility and “presence” in the
world. The kind of face that generally
only gets attention when you have to “save” it.

And right now, the coalitions that have a reputation of success and
conquest on their own terms (specifically PL and the CFC) are making it known
that they have no interest in seriously defending undefendable assets. They’re taking great pains to ensure that no
one mistakes their eventual loss of sov as anything but a logical
decision. Which it is.

“Didn’t want that sov anyways.”
Too soon?

Why do I find this so fascinating?
Because perception is far more important than reality, even in a game
based on mechanics, bonus tables, mathematical modifiers, and discrete rules
hard-programmed into the game. To be
perceived as weak is more dangerous than to actually be weak. How many alliances do we know that are a
shadow of their former selves, yet continue to soldier on because of the weight
of their reputations and histories?

There is a change in null-sec, and it’s a very human awareness of
limitation. Being a history fan, I can’t
help but liken it to what the building of Hadrian’s Wall and the establishment
of a fixed border to the Roman world meant.
One day, the world was the limit of Roman ambition, and a Roman child could
dream of leading the conquest of new worlds and tribes. Rome’s eyes were turned outwards towards the
riches and spoils to be had.

But the next, the emperor himself acknowledges the unfeasibility of
going beyond. The risks and challenges
can’t be maintained long-term anymore.
In an instant, the world changes from being the source of untold riches to
untold dangers. Almost overnight, the
world beyond holds only threats. It wasn’t
the beginning of the end, but it did make it clear to everyone at the time that
the beginning had already ended. Realization
finally matched reality, and dreams of the future became the risk of nightmares.

Yes, I’m always intrigued by the duality of pulling back. In acknowledging that what you are now is not
capable of maintaining what you once could, you’re putting a cap on
dreams. The null-sec alliances will
never again tower as large and control as much territory as they do now. The costs of doing so will become untenable
under Phoebe.

But there’s the other side, too.
These null alliances are becoming denser and drawing in, becoming
tougher nuts to crack. Their densities
are increasing. That will most certainly
ensure their long-term survival. And that’s
a reason for them to hope. They’ll be
smaller, but more secure.

For a time.

Into the voids created by their contraction, the barbarians will settle
down and grow their own empires. How
many null entities pushed out over the last two years will re-emerge? How many low-sec groups will decide to carve
out their own piece of sov? The answer
will depend heavily on how “occupancy-based sov” plays out in the next major
round of null changes; I doubt many low-sec entities will care to enter null
under the current mechanics.

But regardless of who steps in, the simple fact is that lands which
were once verdant and bountiful for the established null entities are now part
of the cold distance. Areas that were
home are now the breeding grounds for threats.
No longer can they exert their control to strangle threats in the cradle. They’ll begin to blossom again.

Oh, yes, the princes of null-sec are watching the cold distance right
now. They can hear the movement of
barbarian tribes shuffling towards their new homes.

And the wind is beginning to howl.

Edit: Yes, I know Dylan wrote the original version, but there are subtle differences in the text of Hendrix's version. Hence, the credit to Hendrix. Besides, Hendrix did it better.

3 comments:

I'm curious what your views are on how this is going to effect the economy / market. Will things stay pretty much the same as they've always been or will buying habits shift in one direction or another?

Well, I'm looking at the impending changes which are going to introduce occupancy-based sov and local industry in null. That will cause the trade hubs to lose volume for the more mundane modules and T2 modules (but they're still going to be the place to go for faction, deadspace, and implants).

But there's going to be a lot of upheaval and market fluctuations until then. It's not going to be a smooth process.

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