MIDEAST TENSIONS

MIDEAST TENSIONS; Crisis Impelling the Saudis To Debate War and Allies

By YOUSSEF M. IBRAHIM, Special to The New York Times

Published: October 20, 1990

JIDDA, Saudi Arabia, Oct. 19—
As the immediate shock of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait recedes with the summer heat, a significant debate is under way among Saudis about this nation's relationships with other Arabs and the prospects of war with Iraq.

Presenting a vivid contrast to the public silence usually observed in this country on issues of national security, Saudis are arguing passionately among themselves about whether they should go to war to liberate Kuwait, or only to defend Saudi Arabia. They are also questioning the dependability of Syria's commitment to the moderate Saudi-Egyptian alliance that seems to have grown since Iraq invaded Kuwait on Aug. 2.

A Generational Divide

Some say war may bring such destruction of the highly developed Saudi economy and social welfare system, built over decades at an enormous expense, that it is not an option - even if the choice not to fight means the permanent loss of an independent Kuwait.

Others maintain that the integrity and independence of this country can be assured only if the Iraqi Government of President Saddam Hussein is eradicated, a feat that can be accomplished only by a victory in war, no matter what the cost.

These views are reportedly echoed in comments by members of the ruling Saud family. And their remarks, like those of their subjects, seem to reflect something of a generational divide.

'The Drums of War'

''I don't understand people in other countries who are beating the drums of war,'' said Ishaq al-Sehsah, a well-known doctor here in Jidda. ''We will be the ones to pay the price. Any war here will leave in its wake such misery and huge losses, no matter how it goes. I don't think anything is worth that.''

While enthusiastically embracing new warm relations with Egypt and expressing outright hostility toward the Palestinians, Saudis appear somewhat hesitant about steps by their Government to punish nations that have sided with Iraq, like Yemen and Jordan.

These economic measures include the suspension of all privileges once granted to the 2 million Yemenis who work and live here. The Yemenis are leaving, creating some havoc in Saudi service industries, which depend on these expatriates.

Dr. Sehsah spoke of his concerns about the future two nights ago at an evening gathering of some of the most influential citizens of this prosperous Red Sea port city, including current and former Government officials, business executives and senior editors and publishers.

Dr. Sehsah was asked, in light of his views of the threat of war, what could be done for Kuwaitis who have been evicted from their country. He said: ''They will not be the first people who have lost their land, but should we sacrifice more people for that? No, I don't think war is an option.''

Other Saudis, like Wahib Ben Zagr, one of this country's best known businessmen, said the issue at stake was not the territorial integrity of Kuwait but that of Saudi Arabia.

''We did not move to call foreign troops just because Kuwait was invaded, but because we are next in line,'' he said. ''The issue is the regime in Baghdad, which has introduced a notion of conquest and territorial acquisition by force that will leave no one in this region in peace. If we go to war, it is because in the end we don't want to join the Kuwaitis on the refugee list.''

Such talk is markedly different from what was heard here immediately after the Iraqi invasion. Then, attention among virtually all Saudis from the leadership on down was entirely focused on the danger of an Iraqi thrust into Saudi Arabia.

This threat has faded, with some 200,000 foreign troops concentrated to defend this country and a formidable naval armada backing them. Now people here appear to be stepping back and taking stock.

Complications Appreciated

With multiple stories in circulation about the distinct possibility of a long and bloody war, there is a new appreciation here that what at first appeared to be a simple decision is actually very complicated. While once there was a clear consensus that war with Iraq is necessary and that it would be fast and easy, now there is an understanding that it is not realistic to think that there will be a surgical strike against Iraq that leaves this country's comfort and prosperity untouched.

Saudis and foreign diplomats agree that this grave appreciation of the consequences of war can be perceived at the highest level of Saudi Government.

Over the last few weeks, cautious statements about the gulf crisis have been made by King Fahd and senior princes of the royal family like the King's brother and Defense Minister, Prince Sultan, who have not discouraged a search for a peaceful outcome and have said no attacks on Iraq will be initiated from Saudi Arabia.

This caution at the top of the hierarchy is not evident among the younger members of the ruling establishment, reflecting the division of opinions throughout the country.

More forceful views against Iraq continue to be expressed by princes like Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, and the Ambassador to Washington, Bandar ibn Sultan. The language they use publicly in international circles comes close to advocating war as the only way to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait.