But the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock-market exposure among a subset of short-term market-timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at 58.46%. That's down slightly from its recent peak of 66.6%. Commentator Mark Hulbert interpreted it as bearish, contrary-opinion wise. (See Mark Hulbert's archived Nov. 29 column).

Although the overall market can't seem to get traction, that means, ironically, that a striking number of investment letters have beaten it -- over the last year, during which the Dow has gained some 4%, no less than 168 out of the 181 portfolios followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

The successes of the top performers are impressive. Here are the leading five, with their dividend-reinvested performance:

Outstanding Investments 47.8%

Nate's Notes 42.8%

OTC Insight 38.0%

Spear Report 35.6%

Closed End 34% Country Fund Report

Outstanding Investments seems to be emerging as a real force in the investment-letter industry -- it's also the HFD's top performer over the last five years.

In its most recent hotline, Outstanding Investments emphasized gold and other precious metals and commodities.

"The momentum is decidedly bullish and shows little signs of slowing. Natural gas is coming back with a vengeance and heating oil is firming up too. There is still time to get in at these low levels, and they maybe a distant memory once the snow flies in New York....Sugar is still very much in a bull market mode, as is gold, but we have finished taking all of our stellar profits for these markets until the New Year begins," according to the report.

But Outstanding Investments added that: "Trading this time of year is very difficult for a multitude of reasons; it's better just to sit on the sidelines pretty much until the New Year."

The runner up, Nate's Notes, is also market ambivalent.

Editor Nate Pile wrote in his last issue in mid-November: "It appears that the bulls have taken charge, at least for now...I have to admit that I am still somewhat surprised that not only was "the majority" right, they have been right in a big way."

Bravely, at a time when the market was looking much less mean than it does now, Pile added:

"The strength of the current rally does make me nervous since the last time I remember so many people calling for a rally and then getting it was in January of 2000, when it became apparent that all the computers in the world had survived the Y2K issue they were facing. If you recall, back then we had roughly two months of incredibly smooth sailing and everyone congratulated themselves for being so smart...and then a rapid decline in stock prices when reality set in and investors realized there weren't any buyers left!'

For the record, here are the five stocks currently most favored by the market-beating 168:

BAC Bank of America Corp. 11 letters

HD Home Depot 10

JNJ Johnson & Johnson 10

DVN Devon Energy 10

PVN Pfizer 9

The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is available by e-mail or regular mail. Highlights include:

-- If you think the stock market has gone nowhere since 1999, think again.

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