Bob Janjuah's Latest Note Is One Of The Most Embarrassing Things We've Ever Read

In a note called Monetary Anarchy he explained the
failure of his bearish calls, which he's been making aggressively
for months,
including in early January, when he said that the rally had
just a few days left, and that the S&P would soon be heading
to 1000.

His explanation: The world's central banks are distorting the
market beyond all reason, and therefore the market is
un-analyzable.

There's so much to find fault with here, we're not sure where to
begin.

First of all, if your job is to provide assessments of markets,
it's your fault if you failed to anticipate what the world's
central banks do to manage the economy. It's what they
do. Don't like that they do that? Fine, but it's absurd to
let your philosophical viewpoints guide your market calls.

In Janjuah's case, the whole frustration with the ECB is
unconvincing since back in November he said he'd just reload his
shorts if the ECB got aggressive about saving the euro.

Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal
integration over the next decade (nothing substantive will happen
over the short term, in my view) is the only option, and ECB
monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that
clear and simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn
and agrees to unlimited monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable
knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading my short risk
positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow
agree to unlimited monetisation I believe it will do nothing to
fix the insolvency and lack of growth in the eurozone. It will
just result in a major destruction of the ECB‟s balance sheet
which will force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and
its northern partners would walk away. Markets always want short,
sharp, simple solutions. This is why the begging bowl is out for
ECB unlimited monetisation. But, as in the immortal words of
Messrs Jagger and Richards, "you can‟t always get want you want‟.

What's funny is, the ECB actually made a move that was far less
aggressive than "unlimited monetisation" (the 3-year LTRO) and
yet obviously the upside for the market is far beyond what he'd
anticipated, or else he wouldn't be throwing his hands up in
disgust.

Beyond that, the idea that the market is all just central
bank-driven bubble blowing is nonsense.

While the ECB almost certainly helped take the worst-case
scenario off the table in Europe, in the US we continue to see
steady improvement in the data, especially in the areas that
really count: Labor, cars, manufacturing, home construction etc.
Yes, the Fed is not going to get in the way of the rally, and it
has signaled that it's hear to help, but has it done anything
unfathomable and beyond the ordinary? Definitely not.

Oh, and lest you think it's just the US where the data has been
good, think again.

Bottom line: It's Janjuah's job to anticipate what central banks
are going to do, the central banks haven't done anything that
bizarre, and there are fundamentals to back up the market
turnaround. The idea that the market is now just such a tangled
mess that it's impossible to assess is nonsense.

And in general, this whole blaming authorities for your missing
rallies is just not a good look for anyone.

It's one thing to not like bailouts or easy money or government
spending or whatnot. Fine. If your an investor, or if you write
for investors, then saying that you would have been right, but
for government actions, really is a horrible cop out, and one we
hear all the time from multiple quarters in the financial world.
Better to just cut it out.