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AFIO LUNCHEON 15 MARCH AT FORT MYER, VIRGINIA

Two great speakers:

Morning Speaker (11:00 - 12:00) AFIO Member John Koehler, author
of STASI: The East German Secret Police, will discuss his book and
the role of STASI in internal repression and worldwide espionage (see
book review below). John Koehler served as foreign correspondent for
Associated Press in Berlin and Bonn for 28 years, and was an
Assistant to the President under President Ronald Reagan. This will
be terrific session. The author is willing to autograph his book.

Afternoon Speaker (13:00 - 14:00) : Professor Paul Goble
(invited), will speak on the topic of - WHITHER RUSSIA - after the
financial collapse a topic of highest importance. Russia today is in
a state of severe depression (exceeding the depth of our depression
in 1929) and has been compared to a corrupted financial derelict,
with criminal gangs intertwined with government, and full of nuclear
weapons. Professor Goble is, and has been, an expert on Russia. You
are promised a fascinating, stimulating and enlightening
presentation.

SUNKEN NORTH KOREAN SPY SHIP LOCATED - The wreckage of a
small North Korean semi-submersible speed boat sunk on 19 December 98
was located by the South Korean Navy in mid-January. The speed boat
had been spotted on 18 December by South Korean Coast Guard soldiers
using infra-red surveillance devices. The following morning it was
found by naval and air units, and, after it refused to surrender and
opened fire on the pursuers, sunk. The South Korean Navy will launch
recovery operations to raise the vessel from a depth of about 450
feet.

These type of speed boats usually carry up to six crewmembers and
are used by the North Koreans for covert operations, including
collecting intelligence and landing armed agents in the South. The
boats are carried and launched by a "mother ship," disguised as a
fishing vessel. The South Korean Navy's hunt for the mother ship
failed.

This was the fourth known penetration by North Korean elements in
1998. In June a submarine was captured at sea; in July an armed North
Korean frogman was discovered on a beach; and an attempted
infiltration by speed boat was detected in November, but this one
escaped back to the North. (Korea Herald 19 Dec 98 and 21 Jan 99;
Inside China Today/European Internet 20 Jan 99) (RoyJ)

CUBAN SPY RING IN SPAIN - Five military members of the
Spanish military intelligence agency CDIS ( Center of Defense
Information and Studies) and a businessman, Jose Fernandez, have been
charged with spying for Cuba, involving secret meetings in Miami
between Spanish agents and Cuban handlers, money laundering and
industrial espionage. Spanish intelligence chiefs were tipped off
that something was wrong when microphones hidden in offices of
suspected Cuban spies suddenly stopped working, pointing to a
potential penetration of their counterintelligence service. Agents of
the Cuban Ministry of the Interior's Directorate of Intelligence,
which has Madrid as its main European base, indeed had managed to
infiltrate CDIS.

Interestingly, Miami, Florida, was an important exchange and
debriefing station for Cuban Intelligence operations in Spain, as
Spanish individuals could travel there regularly without attracting
suspicion. The accused spy Jose Fernandez helped set up enterprises
as Cuban Intelligence fronts in Florida and elsewhere, including
travel agencies such as Grupo Oasis (registered in Panama). A number
of companies in Miami are reputed to be fronts for Cuban
intelligence. Cuban Intelligence, incidentally, is said to be
strapped for cash, like the rest of the Cuban economy, and suffering
from poor morale. (Miami Herald, 31 Jan 99, courtesy Alan Fields)
(RoyJ)

CIA INCREASES WESTBANK PRESENCE - CIA activities in the
Palestinian self-rule area have reportedly expanded with the opening
of CIA offices in Gaza, Hebron and Nablus. Further offices are
planned in other West Bank cities and the Gaza strip, according to
information attributed to Israel Radio. Palestinians who speak both
Arabic and English may be employed in these offices. Palestinian
security officials were said to be apprehensive about the increased
scope of activities. The Wye river accord, currently held in limbo by
Prime Minister Netanyahu, provides for a role by CIA in implementing
the agreement, especially in controlling Palestinian terrorism.
(Arabic News, quoting Israel Radio, Dec 19, 1998) (RoyJ)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE BUDGET - The FY 2000 Military
Budget Request for FY 2000 is $280.8 billion, and increase of $4.6
billion over the budget authority for FY99. This request, called
"National defense" or "050" in the federal budget, includes the
Pentagon budget plus the intelligence budget, the Department of
Energy military (nuclear weapons) programs, and a few odds and ends.
Some $6.6 billion of extra procurement money is allocated to National
Missile Defense deployment.

MOSSAD PLAN TO ASSASSINATE SADDAM LEAKED - Operation
Bramble envisioned killing Saddam on the night of November 7, 1992.
Premier Yitzak Rabin had approved Bramble, and the final rehearsal
took place in the Negev desert on 5 November. Unfortunately a live
missile was mistakenly used in the exercise and five Israeli soldiers
were killed. The operation was canceled.

The idea remained alive, however, and in 1998 the operation was
revived - codenamed Bramble II (Siah Atad II), and approved by
Premier Netanyahu . Special forces of the elite unit 262 began
training to kill Saddam during one of his visits to his mistress, one
of the few patterns of Saddam's movements that provided some
regularity. Once they received information that Saddam was on his way
about 40 soldiers would be flown to Iraq, and divide into two units.
Ten soldiers would move within 200 meters of the relevant site; the
other group would wait six miles away with special television-guided
missiles, codenamed Midras. The forward group would target Saddam
with a video monitor. At the right moment, the main group would fire
three Midras missiles . After the firing the troops would immediately
evacuate.

Israeli sources said the operation was canceled because the
schedule for the attack coincided with the American and British
bombardment of Iraq, and because Ariel Sharon and Yitzak Mordechai
doubted the accuracy of Mossad's information. Who knows? The alleged
plan is likely to be shelved now that it has been leaked. Or is it?
(The London Times, 17 Jan 99) (RoyJ)

SECTION III BOOK REVIEWS

STASI: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police,
by John O. Koehler, 480 pages, Westview Press 1999, ISBN
0-8133-3409-8. Drawing on his own extensive experience as associated
Press Bureau Chief in Berlin during the Cold War, interviews with
former STASI officers as well as victims of oppression, STASI
documents and US intelligence sources, Koehler recounts tales that
contribute to understanding but sometimes read like Hollywood spy
thrillers. He reviews Stasi activities within East and West Germany,
ranging from internal repression to international espionage,
terrorism,and clandestine operations, extending as far afield as
Latin America and Africa.

Recommended (RoyJ).

The New Face of War, by Robert Chandler (Colonel,
USAF ret) , AMCODA Press, McLean Virginia, 465 pages, $33.00.
Discusses US strategy in the face of "weapons of mass destruction" -
- - a threat of undoubted validity, but which appears to absorb a
disproportionate amount of Pentagon oratorical and theatrical energy
that somehow seems excessive. Chandler recommends the creation of a
global reconnaissance-strike complex to meet the challenges of WMD
proliferation. (RoyJ)

Silent Running: My Years on a World War II Attack
Submarine, by James F. Calvert (VADM, USN ret), John Wiley
& Sons, New York NY, 282 pages, $16.95. This book takes its place
alongside "Blind Man's Bluff: The Untold Story of Submarine
Espionage," the "Hunt for Red October," and movies like the German
film "Das Boot," in bringing alive the hazardous mission and special
courage of submariners in a readable and accessible format. Admiral
Calvert's memoir, of course, is not fiction. It deals not only with
his wartime missions in the Pacific, but with the bureaucratic
political battles within the Navy, where submariners were perceived
at the time as threats to the dominance of the surface navy. For
those interested in sea warfare, recommended. (RoyJ)

SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

The AFIO San Antonio Chapter, together with the Center for the
Study of Intelligence and the World Affairs Council of San Antonio,
is sponsoring a luncheon on 10 February featuring Douglas J.
MacEachin, former Deputy Director for Intelligence at CIA and
currently a Senior Fellow at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of
Government. The topic will be MacEachin's latest book, Japan: Signals
Intelligence the A-Bomb Decision. Place: Hyatt Regency Hotel on the
riverwalk, 123 Losoya Street. Reception 11:15, Luncheon and lecture
12 noon. Members and guests are invited. Members $25 by reservation.
Non-members and Guests $35. Call 210 308 9494, or call AFIO Chapter
President Henry Bussey (210) 490 5408, email hmbus@texas.net.

A Counterrorism and Security Seminar organized by POSSE (Police
Officers Survivors Services Endowment) will be conducted at the
Atlanta North Central Marriott Hotel on April 1921, 1999. Other than
high ranking US Government speakers, the former director of CI for
the KGB, General Victor Budanov, will present his assessment of
Russia's criminal and terrorism situation. For more info, contact
POSSE c/o MIC, tel 703 527 8000 or email micexpos@aol.com
and reference AFIO.

Travel Intelligence - for those contemplating a swim in the rivers
of the Amazon basin, beware of the Vandellia Cirrhosa -- also
informally dubbed the Urinophilus Diabolicus -- a tiny translucent
catfish that is able to follow a stream of urine to its source,
anchor itself into place by flaring sharp spines along its gills in
the most intimate part of the human anatomy, and not only cause
exruciating pain, but stay in place irremovably -- except by
surgery. Ouch! (Audubon Jan-Feb 99, p. 104) (RoyJ)

Colonel Andre Dewavrin, DSO, MC, who under the pseudonym Colonel
Passy headed General de Gaulle's wartime secret services in London,
died on December 20th in France at the age of 87. One of the first of
his compatriots to answer the rallying cry of general De Gaulle after
the fall of France in 1940, he was entrusted with the task of
building up Free French intelligence operations and running them from
London.

The British Special Operations Executive (SOE) had a section "F"
for operations in France, under orders of the British Chief of Staff.
Colonel Dewavrin persuaded SOE to set up a parallel sectton "RF" that
was purely Gaullist, and headed by himself. "RF" sent over 550 agents
into France, even more than "F". No wallflower, Andre Dewavrin
parachuted into France in the spring of 1943 to accomplish a special
organizational mission.

His Bureau Central de Renseignements et d'Action (later renamed
the Bureau de Recherches et d'Action a Londres) became an essential
cog in the Allied war machine, gathering information from occupied
France and coordinating the Resistance campaign. He left behind a
record of three volumes of lively and sardonic war memoirs, including
"2e Bureau, Londres" and " 10 Duke Street"(both in 1947) and "Missions Secretes" (1951).

AFIO members: Your encouragement and participation is the basis for AFIO's success. We need each and everyone of you in fulfilling our educational mission of building of a public and leadership constituency for a strong and healthy US intelligence capability.

Each member, contributing to the mission according to his or her capability, is vitally important. If you can, recruit a new member or associate member in'99.