Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research, says his latest poll has the Conservatives with 36% support, the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 16%. Yufest says that while the Conservatives have remained steady over the past several polls, sitting in the mid-30s in terms of voter support, the Liberals have dropped off.

“Towards the end of last year, they were at 35%. You look at September, they were at a high of 38% and then they’ve been declining month after month,” Yufest said.

Regionally, the Liberals only really hold significant leads in Atlantic Canada and in the City of Toronto. The Conservatives lead across much of Western Canada and dominate in the vote-rich 905 belt that surrounds Canada’s largest city.

With Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives holding a 46% to 31% lead over the Liberals in this area, Yufest says if the Conservatives are to win the next election then the path to victory leads right through the 905 area.

“That’s where, in large parts, Stephen Harper, when he won his majority, was able to pick many of his seats in Ontario,” Yufest said.

Sweep much of the GTA, inlcuding a few seats on the outskirts of Toronto proper, and Andrew Scheer is the PM come October. The party seems more focused on Quebec right now, much like Trudeau’s Liberals, but any path to victory needs a strong showing in Ontario.

As for the Liberals, Yufest says the PM is losing support with key demographics due to the SNC-Lavalin scandal — women and millenial voters, in particular.

Yufest points out that millennial voters supported Trudeau in large numbers in the last election, partly due to cannabis legalization, without a new pitch, that demographic is unlikely to come out for Trudeau in the same numbers.

“It’s then up to the female demographic to carry him to victory. So, if he can’t compel them to come out, then he’s done if he loses both of those groups,” Yufest said.

Of particular concern for any Liberal strategists looking for a path to recovery are the number of people saying the Liberals don’t deserve re-election.

Asked which statement best reflected their views, 43% said that “the government has done a bad job, and should not be re-elected.” That compares to 21% who said “the government has done a good job, and deserves to be re-elected.”

As for Trudeau himself, Yufest says he now stands at just 29% approval compared to 58% who think the PM is doing a bad job. Those numbers says Yufest are close to the unpopularity of former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne who dropped into the 20s and was never able to recover.

While just 29% approve of Trudeau’s job performance, 45% approve of the job done by former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould.

“The people are with her on this issue specifically and not so much with Justin Trudeau,” Yufest said.

On Wednesday, the Liberals on the Commons justice committee moved to block Wilson-Raybould from testifying a second time. That could leave more voters with the impression the Liberals are tying to hide something and lead to a further erosion of support.

It’s often said that governments defeat themselves, right now Justin Trudeau is doing that.

Conducted March 7-10, the poll of 1,893 adult Canadians — reached through an online panel — has a margin of error of 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.