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Saturday, March 15, 2014

The President’s proposed Fiscal Year 2015 budget details were released
this week. For the next several years,
the budget proposes a steady as she goes plan (but with two “what are they
thinking?” surprises). Then as the
current missions in development head to the launch pad, the budget suggests
major changes that would dramatically remake the mix of missions that would
launch in the next decade.

The broad outlines of the proposed NASA budget have been widely
reported. I’ve gone through the proposed
budget and found a move to a very different mix of missions that I haven’t seen
reported elsewhere. To start with the
big picture, here are the highlights:

Status quo for missions in flight or under development except that the
Mars Opportunity rover and the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter missions could end on
September 30.

NASA is recommitting to a vigorous Discovery mission program, but its
plans for filling out the rest of its mission portfolio leading into the next
decade are unknown.

Selection of future New Frontiers missions is suspended
indefinitely.

While the Administration finally includes some money to consider
options for a budget Europa mission, it’s a one shot affair with no mission
development expected until the 2020s.

The President’s budget generally proposes
little change in NASA’s science programs for the rest of the decade. A $65M cut is proposed for the Planetary
Science program for FY15, which equals the change in the amount proposed for
studying a mission to Europa from FY14.
Solid lines are actual spending, dashed lines projected spending.

Before we look at the details, I’ll provide some background information
on the budgeting process.

The President’s Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) annually prepares a budget proposal for the next year.The proposal contains two sets of numbers:
the proposed spending for the next fiscal year (October 1 to September 30) and
a notional budget for the following four years (through FY19 in this proposal)
that agency managers use to plan multiyear programs.

Each house of Congress then passes its own
version of the budget, which are reconciled between the two.The President must sign the congressionally
approved budget for it to become law, giving OMB significant negotiating power
with Congress.

The final signed budget law will expire on
September 30, 2015.NASA’s managers must
spend to match the budget (with some wiggle room) for that fiscal year.However,
they cannot start any multi-year program that isn’t also shown in the
President’s out year notional budget.

To understand the impact of the budget on future planetary exploration
(the focus of this blog), I've learned to look at three sets of numbers: Funding
for missions in flight, funding for missions in development, and funding to
start development of future missions.

Funding for missions in flight

Proposed funding for missions in flight
(or in the case of GRAIL, just completed).
The budget for operating the Cassini mission isn’t reported separately,
and the figures shown are approximate.

The President’s budget proposes to fund all missions in flight with two
exceptions. The first key change in this
budget from last year is that the new proposal includes full funding for the
Cassini orbiter at Saturn through the planned end of its mission (and fuel) in
2017. This would mean that the final
orbits close to the rings and atmosphere will occur. As recently as last summer, funding
for the Cassini mission past 2015 was in doubt.

Other missions are either funded throughout the five year budget
projection (the Curiosity rover, for example), until their expected end of life
(the MESSENGER Mercury orbiter), or until the end of their originally planned
missions when they will be eligible to justify further funding for extended
missions (New Horizons).

The other key change to this portion of the budget, however, is the
proposal for premature termination of the Opportunity rover and the Lunar
Reconnaissance Orbiter mission. Both
missions are producing good science, and the budget document doesn’t explain
why funding isn’t proposed. In addition
to the main budget, the President proposed a supplemental budget enhancement
that would be funded through new taxes that would fund both of these missions
(among many other programs). This supplement
is given no chance of passage by the current Congress. Continuing these two missions, then, depends
on Congress adding funds to support them in next year’s budget (quite possibly
taken from elsewhere in NASA’s budget since NASA’s total budget is unlikely to
change much under the two year budget compromise worked out last year by the
two political parties).

Proposing to not continue funding the popular and still very productive
Opportunity rover is one of the two, “I can’t imagine what they were thinking,”
lines in the budget. I hope that
Congress will overturn this. (I also
disagree with not continuing the Lunar Reconnaissance orbiter which is still
producing good science, but it doesn’t have the popular following of
Opportunity.)

Funding for missions in development

The budget would fully fund development
of the three approved NASA missions in development. Funding is proposed to continue evaluating
options for a possible Europa mission that may be developed in the 2020s and
for future Discovery program missions.
Solid lines are approved missions, dashed line are funding for expected future
missions.

The proposed budget would also fully fund the planetary missions that
NASA has in development: the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return, the InSight
Mars geophysical station, and the 2020 Mars rover mission. Funding is also included for NASA’s
contributions to the European Space Agency’s Bepi-Colombo Mercury orbiter, the
2016 ExoMars orbiter and 2018 rover, and the JUICE Jupiter-Ganymede orbiter.

Funding to start development of future missions

By the end of the decade, NASA would be
completing development of the Mars 2020 rover and developing new
Discovery-program missions. No new
missions in the New Frontiers or Outer Planets programs are foreseen in the
budget for the rest of this decade.

Solid lines are actual spending, dashed lines projected spending.

By funding most missions in flight and continuing development of
missions already approved, the budget is largely status quo. The radical changes to NASA’s program would
come for the missions that will follow these.

NASA’s mission strategy has been to fly a mixture of mission that fall
into different cost classes. Some
scientific priorities require expensive, highly capable spacecraft, such as the
2020 Mars rover in development. NASA
refers to these missions as Flagships that would cost $1.5B to $2.5B. (More expensive Flagship missions were flown
in the past.) Flagship missions would do
the difficult, high priority studies that simply can’t be done more
cheaply. The expectation has been that
one or two Flagship missions would be developed per decade, with missions to
Europa and Uranus (in that order) having the highest priority.

NASA has a second mission class for high priority studies that can be
done more cheaply ($700M to $1B), known as the New Frontiers program. In the
past, this program was used to develop the New Horizons spacecraft on its way
to Pluto, the Juno orbiter en route to study the interior of Jupiter, and the
OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return
mission that is in development. For the
future, the scientific community has prioritized a Venus lander, a Saturn
atmospheric probe, a Trojan asteroid tour and rendezvous, a comet surface
sample return, and a Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin sample return for this
program. The expectation had been that New Frontiers
missions would be selected every five to seven years. As recently as last summer, NASA was planning
to select the fourth mission in the series in the next year or two.

Discovery program missions cost approximately $450M and are competitively
chosen from proposals submitted by scientific teams to study any solar system
body except the sun and Earth. (NASA has
other programs to study those two bodies.)
NASA originally selected Discovery missions every two years, but that
has been stretched to every five years recently.

The new budget proposal would radically shift the mixture of mission
classes for the future. The budget for
the Discovery program would be ramped up to a level that would again allow
selection of missions every two years.
(In a past meeting, Jim Green, head of NASA’s Planetary Science program,
has said that a budget of ~$350M would support starting a Discovery mission
every two years.) However, the budget
states that after the launch of the OSIRIS-REx mission, the budget for the
budget for the New Frontiers program drops to near zero and no money is
foreseen up to 2019 to develop future missions.
(It is silent about whether New Frontiers missions might be selected
after that.)

The proposed budget also doesn’t foresee any new Flagship missions to
be started before 2019 and looks to see if the highest priority future Flagship
mission could be descoped to the equivalent of a New Frontiers mission. The approach proposed in the budget is the
second case where I am left scratching my head wondering what the thinking
is. Thanks to generous funding added by Congress
in the last two budgets, NASA has extensively studied a ~$2B proposed mission
called the Europa Clipper. For the FY15
budget, NASA proposes to spend $15M (a substantial cut from last year’s $80M
inserted into the budget by Congress for Europa mission studies) to assess the
potential for a $1B Europa mission.
Testing different cost points to learn what each could provide is a
smart management move. What doesn’t make
sense is that the budget proposes to spend $15M next year, and then nothing for
a Europa mission until possibly sometime in the 2020s. The engineers who will study the descoped
mission will have moved on to other projects or retired; technologies available
today will be obsolete. So why
bother?

While Congress has strongly supported doing a Europa mission earlier
than the 2020s, it can’t force the formal start of development on a new
mission. Congressional budgets expire
every September 30th. To
start development on a new mission, NASA needs both for its budget to show
proposed budgets in future years to complete the development and for Congress
to appropriate the funds for that development each year. Under the proposed budget, we would have one
more year of studies and then nothing for perhaps another decade.

This budget proposal presents almost no vision for NASA’s planetary program
following the completion of the missions currently in development. No money would be spent to prepare for a
Flagship mission to launch in the 2020s.
The Outer Planets program shrinks to near zero, and the same for the New
Frontiers program. In the proposed
budget, the only firm plan for the following decade appears to be a robust program
of Discovery missions, but that alone isn’t enough for a robust planetary
science program.

Unless the Planetary Science budget suffers a severe cut at the turn of
the next decade, funds should be available for a relatively rich program. By my back of the envelope calculations,
continuing the current budget (with inflation adjustments) would support
development of the $2B Europa Clipper, a New Frontiers mission, and five
Discovery missions in the 2020s.
Alternatively, NASA could fund three New Frontiers-class missions
(including perhaps, a budget Europa mission) and five Discovery missions. However, preparing to fly these missions
requires funding in advance of mission selection to have robust programs ready.

My take is that the new budget proposal is an interim document when it
comes to preparing for the next decade’s missions. The President’s budget managers have placed a
low priority on planetary science compared to other NASA programs, and the
program’s budget has suffered substantial cuts as a result. This is the first budget proposal in several
years that shows essentially flat spending into the future instead of new cuts. NASA’s managers likely are revamping their
expectations for the planetary program given the new budget realities. We haven’t heard (and NASA may well not know)
what mission portfolio it plans to support in the future within that reality.

The proposed FY15 budget is the first in
several years that doesn’t propose substantial cuts in future years compared to
the previous year’s budget. Lines for each fiscal year show what spending was expected in that budget for the next five years.

About Me

You can contact me at futureplanets1@gmail.com with any questions or comments.
I have followed planetary exploration since I opened my newspaper in 1976 and saw the first photo from the surface of Mars. The challenges of conceiving and designing planetary missions has always fascinated me. I don't have any formal tie to NASA or planetary exploration (although I use data from NASA's Earth science missions in my professional work as an ecologist).
Corrections and additions always welcome.