Padres Prospects: Over/Under

Denis Savage

02/29/2008

In Las Vegas fashion, we set various over/under marks for Padres prospects in 2008 and will continue this discussion in our subscribers-only forum. What is the over/under for Mitch Canham's home run total? How many steals will Javis Diaz have? Will Mat Latos rack up the strikeouts? We discuss all this and more.

Canham hit 10 homers in his last season at Oregon and two over 28 games in the Northwest League. Heading to a hitter's league, Canham should not only have significantly better protection, he will also be batting with plenty of men on base. Given his immense power and additional help with some mechanical problems he faced last year, Canham should come close to achieving this goal. OVER

The speedster stole 31 bases in 2007 – the highest total of his career. But, he also learned balance under the tutelage of Doug Dascenzo and was a much better runner over the second half of the year. With a full year of thieving, Diaz could very well reach this level. Consider this – he got caught 14 times in 2007 but was successful 23 times in his final 27 attempts. OVER

Breit changed his mechanics last year and caught way too much of the plate, resulting in a 6.78 ERA. It is likely he will return to the Midwest League in 2008 with a lot more confidence. He has the stuff to dominate and pitched well down the stretch. Carrying that over into 2008 will serve him well. UNDER

After hitting .282 in the Midwest League, Hunter is in the mix to head out to California. While there may be some adjustments early on for the outfielder, Hunter is a pure hitter who should take advantage of a strong lineup to protect him (Kellen Kulbacki hitting behind him?) and a good league for hitters to regain confidence. He has the ability to hit .330 in this league and .310 may prove to be no match. OVER

The southpaw made just nine starts last year, appearing in 15 games overall, and was held to a strict pitch count yet still managed to win five games. He has solid stuff across the board and knows how to pitch. While he will be challenged in 2008 at places like Lancaster and High Desert, Luebke should be a shoe-in to clear 12 victories. OVER

Averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings over a three-year career, this is a valid question. The lowest total of his career over a full season was his rookie professional campaign when he allowed 3.22 walks per nine frames. While something clicked for Hussey during the Instructional League and he led the team in first-pitch strikes, it might be difficult for him to make such a dramatic improvement. Look for him to come close but just fall shy. OVER

For the first time in eons, the Padres will have a prospect that will fight for the strikeout crown in his respective league. There will certainly be competition if a Jordan Walden is in the league, but Latos' 11.8 strikeout per nine innings last year wasn't a fluke. At that rate, he would need to work roughly 120 innings to meet the total in 2008. This is an easy win. OVER

With a career ERA sitting at 3.69 and a tremendous year in 2007, Geer will be challenged by Triple-A hitting in the Pacific Coast League. He made great strides setting hitters up last season and pitches to both sides of the plate effectively by mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off-balance. Last time he was in a hitter's league, however, Geer posted a 4.96 ERA over 15 starts. He is certainly a better pitcher than that bloated number but may struggle some in Portland. OVER

This is assuming he travels to full season ball and the Fort Wayne Wizards. His power is not really a question of if, it is a question of when. With five career homers under his belt, it may seem he is not destined to show his clout. But the outfielder has tremendous power potential and is still learning how to hit. Asking him to belt 12 in a tough league, however, may be a bit too much at this stage. Anywhere close to double-digits will be a plus. UNDER

This is a tough question since injuries can be so unpredictable. Carrillo is currently progressing nicely and should return in some capacity by May. They will, however, handle him with kid gloves – watching his innings and workload to ensure they don't see a repeat performance of the disabled list. Still, 12 starts aren't asking a lot – we think he hits that number. OVER