Mali – Fifth time’s the charm: IBK’s new winning team?

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) has appointed a new prime minister and renewed his cabinet – again. Soumeylou Boubèye Maiga (SBM), who takes over from Abdoulaye Idrissa Maiga, is IBK’s fifth prime minister since he became president in 2013. This is as many prime ministers as former President Alpha Oumar Konaré had during his 10 years in office, and one more than former President Amadou Toumani Touré appointed during his 10 years at the helm of the state. Under IBK, prime ministers have generally lasted less than a year, only Modibo Keita succeeded in eking out 15 months. What explains this frequent turnover at the “primature” during IBK’s first term? And what justifies this latest change in particular?

Though the president formally lacks the power to dismiss the prime minister under Mali’s 1992 semi-presidential constitution,[1] the frequency with which IBK has changed prime ministers during his first term in office is strong evidence of the president’s informal powers. Mali, like other premier-presidential systems, is experiencing a situation of party “presidentialization” (Samuels and Shugart 2010), frequently found under circumstances where the same majority controls both the presidency and the legislative majority. In other words, though the president does not formally have the power to dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, the ruling RPM party and its coalition members have effectively delegated this power to him.

President IBK has faced unprecedented security challenges, compared to his predecessors. The government is struggling to hinder the spread of terrorist groups and reestablish state control over large swaths of the national territory, of which only about 20% is considered safe for travel by the UK Government. Terrorist attacks have increased in frequency over the past year and extended over a larger geographical area, with much of central Mali now also affected. Extremists have targeted symbols of the state, attempting to murder of the Chief Justice of the High Court and kidnapping the president of the district court of Niono. Lack of progress on the implementation of the 2015 peace accord with former rebels has not improved matters. IBK’s cabinets have also struggled to handle social crises [see previous blog post here] in the health and education sectors, and an attempt at adopting a new constitution failed last year [see previous post here]. Changing prime ministers and cabinet members has provided IBK an avenue for changing a losing team.

Like his predecessor, the new prime minister, SBM, served as defense minister in a previous IBK government – as did the new foreign minister. Clearly security concerns weighed heavily in IBK’s choice for the top cabinet positions in the new government, and unsatisfactory progress in addressing spreading insecurity likely contributed to shortening the tenure in office of SBM’s immediate predecessor. The new cabinet (see Figure 1 below) includes one portfolio more than the previous one – the Ministry for Local Development – which goes to a member of the RPM leadership, Zoumana Mory Coulibaly. In addition to Coulibaly, five more new cabinet members make their entrance into the government, and five other ministers have changed portfolio. The representation of the ruling RPM remains strong, despite the departure of the former prime minister who was the first vice-president of the party. The five who have left the government include the former minister of Foreign Affairs (a career diplomat who was in charge of negotiating the 2015 peace agreement) and the former minister of Human Rights and Government Reform (who shepherded the failed constitutional reform process). The new government includes one more woman than the previous one.

This most recent change of prime ministers was also the last chance before the looming presidential election in July where IBK is likely to seek reelection for a second term. Other candidates have already announced themselves, including Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, former army general and former minister of territorial administration in IBK’s first cabinet; Kalifa Sanogo (of the ADEMA party – ruling coalition member), mayor of Sikasso, Mali’s second largest city; Modibo Kone, expert at the West African Development Bank (BOAD); and Hamadoun Touré, head of the tech initiative “Smart Africa” and friend of Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

The ease with which IBK has been able to change prime ministers and cabinet members has provided him with scapegoats for failed policy and security initiatives. However, the botched constitutional reform initiative, where plans for a referendum had to be abandoned in the face of widespread opposition notably against provisions for increased presidential powers, is difficult to explain away. The coming months will demonstrate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of a mobilized opposition, and on the other side the ability of the opposition to coalesce around a single or a few candidates. It remains to be seen whether IBK this time succeeded in assembling the winning team that will take him over the finish line to a second term in office.

NEW, Secretary General of the Presidency, former defense minister under IBK

ASMA-CFP, president

Defense

Tiéna Coulibaly

Same

Former amb. to US, former minister

Foreign Affairs

Tiéman Hubert Coulibaly

Territorial administration (was defense minister till 2016)

UDD, president

Security

Brigadier Gen. Salif Traoré

Same

Security sector

Territorial administration

Mohamed Ag Erlaf

National education

RPM, member of leadership

Justice

Hamidou Younoussa Maiga

Appointed in November by the previous PM

Former justice

Economy and Finance

Boubou Cissé

Same

Former World Bank employee

Mines

Tiémoko Sangaré

Same

ADEMA, president

Investment and Private Sector

Baber Gano

Transportation

RPM, secretary general

Solidarity and Humanitarian Action

Hamadoun Konaté

Same

RPM leadership

National Education

Housseïni Amion Guindo

Sports

CODEM, president

Higher Education and Research

Assétou Founé Samake Migan

Same

Former university professor

Human Rights

Kadidia Sangare Coulibaly

NEW

Former head of the National Commission for Human Rights

Local Authorities

Alhassane Ag Hamed Moussa

Decentralization and Local Taxation

Public sector

National Reconciliation

Mohamed El Moctar

Same

Public sector, former minister

Malian Diaspora and African Integration

Abdramane Sylla

Same

RPM

Transportation

Moulaye Ahmed Boubacar

NEW

RPM leadership

Habitat and Urbanism

Cheick Sidiya Sissoko dit Kalifa

NEW

ADEMA

Agriculture

Nango Dembélé

Livestock and Fishery

RPM leadership

Livestock and Fishery

Kane Rokia Maguiraga

NEW

Public sector

IT and Communication

Arouna Modibo Touré

Same

Public sector

Infrastructure and Equipment

Traoré Seynabou Diop

Same

Public sector

Industrial Development

Mohamed Aly Ag Ibrahim

Same

Public sector

Employment and Professional Training

Maouloud Ben Kattra

Same

Labor union

Health

Samba Ousmane Sow

Same

Health sector

Labor

Diarra Raky Talla

Same

Public sector

Trade, Government Spokesperson

Abdel Karim Konaté

Same (also gov. spokesperson)

ADEMA

Energy and Water

Malick Alhousseini

Same

Public sector

Environment

Keita Aïda M’Bo

Same

Former UNDP employee

Local Development

(NEW PORTFOLIO)

Zoumana Mory Coulibaly

NEW

RPM, leadership

Territory Planning and Population

Adama Tiémoko Diarra

Same

ADEMA

Culture

N’Diaye Ramatoulaye Diallo

Same

RPM, leadership

Crafts and Tourism

Nina Walet Intallou

Same

CMA (rebel group coordination)

Women, Children and Families

Traoré Oumou Touré

Same

Civil society

Sports

Jean Claude Sidibé

NEW

Sport sector

Religion

Thierno Amadou Omar Hass Diallo

Same

Teaching and consultancies

Youth

Amadou Koita

Same

PS, president

Source: Author’s research.

[1] Article 38 provides that the president “terminates the appointment” of the prime minister “when the latter tenders the resignation of the government” (identical wording as Article 8 in the French 1958 constitution). Formally, the prime minister is thus only accountable to the legislature, leaving Mali in the premier-presidential sub-category of semi-presidential systems. In contrast, in president-parliamentary system, the president is empowered by the constitution to dismiss the prime minister at will, making the premier accountable to both parliament and president. See Shugart and Carey (1992) for further discussion of these two subtypes of semi-presidential systems.