I cover demographic, social and economic trends around the world. I am the R.C. Hobbs Professor of Urban Studies at Chapman University in California and executive editor of newgeography.com. My forthcoming book, The New Class Conflict, will be published by Telos in September.

9/15/2011 @ 1:16PM21,793 views

Declining Birthrates, Expanded Bureaucracy: Is U.S. Going European?

To President Barack Obama and many other Democrats, Europe continues to exercise something of a fatal attraction. The “European dream” embraced by these politicians — as well as by many pundits, academics and policy analysts — usually consists of an America governed by an expanded bureaucracy, connected by high-speed trains and following a tough green energy policy.

One hopes that the current crisis gripping the E.U. will give even the most devoted Europhiles pause about the wisdom of such mimicry. Yet the deadliest European disease the U.S. must avoid is that of persistent demographic decline.

The gravity of Europe’s demographic situation became clear at a conference I attended in Singapore last year. Dieter Salomon, the green mayor of the environmentally correct Freiburg, Germany, was speaking about the future of cities. When asked what Germany’s future would be like in 30 years, he answered, with a little smile, ”There won’t be a future.”

Herr Mayor was not exaggerating. For decades, Europe has experienced some of the world’s slowest population growth rates. Fertility rates have dropped well below replacement rates, and are roughly 50% lower than those in the U.S. Over time these demographic trends will have catastrophic economic consequences. By 2050, Europe, now home to 730 million people, will shrink by 75 million to 100 million and its workforce will be 25% smaller than in 2000.

The fiscal costs of this process are already evident. Countries like Spain, Italy and Greece, which rank among the most rapidly aging populations in the world, are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. One reason has to do with the lack enough productive workers to pay for generous pensions and other welfare-state provisions.

Germany, the über-economy of the continent, has little hope of avoiding the demographic winter either. By 2030 Germany will have about 53 retirees for every 100 people in its workforce; by comparison the U.S. ratio will be closer to 30. As a result, Germany will face a giant debt crisis, as social costs for the aging eat away its currently frugal and productive economy. According to the American Enterprise Institute’s Nick Eberstadt, by 2020 Germany debt service compared to GDP will rise to twice that currently suffered by Greece.

Europe, of course, is not alone in the hyper-aging phenomena. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore face a similar scenario of rapid aging, a declining workforce and gradual depopulation.

In the past, it seemed likely America would be spared the worst of this mass aging. But there are worrisome signs that our demographic exceptionalism could be threatened. One cause for concern is rapid decline in immigration, both legal and illegal. Although few nativist firebrands have noticed, the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. has decreased by 1 million from 2007. Legal immigration is also down. Meanwhile, the number of Mexicans annually leaving Mexico for the U.S. declined from more than 1 million in 2006 to 404,000 in 2010 — a 60% reduction.

More troubling still, fewer immigrants are becoming naturalized residents. In 2008, there were over 1 million naturalizations; last year there were barely 600,000, a remarkable 40% drop.

The drop-off includes most key sending countries, including Mexico, which accounts for 30% of all immigrants. Since 2008 naturalizations have dropped by 65% from North America, 24% from Asia and 28% for Europe. In fact the only place from which naturalizations are on the rise appears to be Africa, with an 18% increase.

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One of the main drivers for Chinas emerging economy is its declining birth rates, because this has freed up the resources necessary to modernize its infrastructure. Before Chinas population began to slow, all of its available resources went to feeding more people. When the population began to slow resources were freed up to build schools, modern factories and so on.

“One hopes that the current crisis gripping the E.U. will give even the most devoted Europhiles pause about the wisdom of such mimicry.”

The EU is a crude superstructure awkwardly plopped on top of long-existing nation states – it has very little decision making authority and, in the ongoing crisis, has primarily served to enforce hard-money policies beneficial to Germany.

Unless the dread “Europhiles” are actually proposing to formally unite the Canadian, Mexican, and American currencies, and have Ottawa set monetary policy for all of those countries based on a fanatical fear of inflation and the narrow economic needs of Ontario , the experience of the EU in the current crisis is perfectly useless in determining whether or not the United States ought to invest in high-speed trains and a tough green energy policy.

Europe is a pretty diverse place. Some European countries are in a huge mess, while some have performed better than the US over the past few years

“Countries like Spain, Italy and Greece, which rank among the most rapidly aging populations in the world, are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. One reason has to do with the lack enough productive workers to pay for generous pensions and other welfare-state provisions.”

The unemployment rate in Spain is currently 21%. Whatever economic problems it has (and it has quite a lot) the “lack of productive workers” would seem to be very far down the list since 1 out of every 5 Spanish workers is sitting idle

Whats the big deal? Isn’t it a good thing in the end for human species as a whole? Considering the fact that lower world population 100 years from now could potentially end up saving the planet as a whole since there will be less carbon,that would otherwise been generated had the world population kept increasing? Ofcourse,the real question all these declining population nations should ask is : “which specific ethnic race should they be allowing more of,into their country in coming decades? There are basically there choices : the chinese ( they themselves got a problem), the “muslims” ( no comment ) and- the “south asians”,ie east indians, as they may be generally referred as sometimes. Considering India will become the nation with most population-at some 1.6 or 1.8 billion in three decades if things continues the way it is at present in India-then some nations with lack of “people” will have no choice but to resort to this ethnic group to balance their declining population. Ofcourse,it depends if Indians will want to move to these countries in the first place, and if they do,they will most likely,like any immigrant group,will chose a nation of racial tolerance with job and career prospects in their new home.Bigger question will always will be : will the existing natural population tolerate the growing majority of other race’s in their country ?

Yes, we have a problem that congress will not fix. Instead of blanket pardons to millions of illegals who are mostly poorly educated or ilitlerate, make it easier and faster for legal immigrants. An example, I prepared the paperwork for my sister-in-law and her husband who are naturalized U.S. citizens to sponsor their eldest daughter and her family to immigrant into the U.S. This daughter married just before her parents and siblings immigrated to the U.S. This daughter is a registered supervisory nurse and her husband is also a college graduate. It took more than six years before approval. However, this is not the last step, then they had to apply for their visas. After month of paperwork, they gave up. They were getting to be too old and could retire within ten years. If it was this difficult for a registered nurse at a time of acute RN shortages in the U.S. for someone whose parents, five siblings, a aunt and three uncles were all U.S. citizens to immigrate to the U.S., what hope is there for a typical person who wants to legally immigrate to the U.S. We do not need more poorly educated or illiterates but more college graduates, especially with professional degrees. I believe Canada will grant fast immigration to anyone with a masters degree absent a criminal history. We should think about that.

In four billions years the sun will exhaust its supply of hydrogen, collapse, and become a red giant or white dwarf. There is nothing that can be done about, the laws of physics, in particular law of conservation of mass and energy, are immutable on this. It will happen no matter what anyone does or does not do, but it is not a problem.

“If there is no solution, there is no problem”.

As economic prosperity increases and life expectancy lengthens, the average (or median) age of a population increases. This is not only logically necessary is empirically observable. It is simply unavoidable, no different from the fate of the sun and our solar system. Likewise, this is not a problem. Why? Because there is no solution.

Instead societies are simply going to have to develop new ways of operating with an older mean population.