Changing Tastes in the Turn Away From Soda

This article was initially published as a letter to subscribers of The Upshot’s newsletter. You can sign up for the email here to get this and all of the best of The Upshot.

Almost every time nutrition activists have tried to get cities to tax sugary soft drinks in order to reduce their consumption, the soft drink industry has beaten them back. Last year, even San Francisco failed to pass a soda tax initiative. (Berkeley, alone, did.)

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Bottled water in a Coca-Cola crate at the Washington State Fair, a sign of changing consumer tastes.CreditRuth Fremson/The New York Times

But the industry’s success masks a broader sort of failure: Carbonated soft drink sales have been declining since 1998, with per capita sales down nearly 30 percent from the peak. Over the last decade, that shift is the biggest change in the American diet, and a big reason I was recently able to write that Americans are consuming fewer calories. Public health researchers think the change could be part of an encouraging trend in obesity data — after decades of increases, the obesity rate has started leveling off and may even be declining among young children.

The shift away from soda presents a huge challenge for beverage makers, of course. I wrote about these trends in an article we just published on The Upshot and which will appear in print in Sunday’s Business section. After decades of selling its popular core products, the industry is going through substantial turmoil — as well as a period of inventiveness — as customers have started demanding more variety and have shown concern about connections between sugary drinks and obesity. Unexpectedly, the tailspin in sales has spread to diet sodas. The soda companies may continue to thrive, but the future of their business will look very different.

I went to Philadelphia to get a feel for this big business and cultural change. Public health leaders there have been committed to fighting childhood obesity for years, and there’s evidence they’re having significant success. My article is part of a series I’m writing on obesity policy and how it’s changing the way Americans eat and drink.