All Publications By Date

It is nearly 15 years since biological weapons (BW) have become a significant national security preoccupation. The events of September 11, 2001, although not in any way related to BW, combined with the distribution of professionally prepared anthrax spores through the U.S. postal system in the weeks afterwards, magnified previous concerns by orders of magnitude.

The author concludes that the most important lesson to be gleaned from studying the German Way of War is often ignored. That is, tactical victories on the battlefield, without logical goals and an achievable Military Strategy, will not produce positive results for a nation.

Security transformation is vital for the United States to promote national security in rapidly changing times, but it is also a moving target. American policymakers and strategists must reassess regularly the global security environment and the trajectory of transformation.

The authors examine the contentious debate over the Iraq war and occupation, focusing on the critique that the Bush administration squandered an historic opportunity to reconstruct the Iraqi state. They argue that the most serious problems facing Iraq and its American occupiers—criminal anarchy and lawlessness, a raging insurgency and a society divided into rival and antagonistic groups—were virtually inevitable consequences that flowed from the act of war itself.

This book examines what additional security threats Iran might pose as it becomes increasingly capable of making nuclear weapons, what steps the United States and its friends might take to deter and contain it, and what should be done to assure Iran's neighbors do not follow in Tehran's nuclear footsteps.

The author reviews the problems common to the security forces of local allies that have fought or may soon fight insurgencies linked to al-Qa'ida. He argues that these problems stem from deep structural weaknesses, such as the regime's perceived illegitimacy, poor civil-military relations, an undeveloped economy, and discriminatory societies. Together, they greatly inhibit the allied armed forces' effectiveness in fighting the insurgents. In order to be effective, any program to assist allied counterinsurgency forces should factor in the allies' weaknesses.

Dr. Duggan shows how to reconcile analytical and intuitive methods of decisionmaking by drawing on recent scientific research that brings the two together. The result is "strategic intuition," which bears remarkable resemblance to von Clausewitz's idea of coup d'oeil in his classic work, On War.

Dr Antulio J. Echevarria II critiques the theory of fourth-generation warfare, examining its problematic assumptions and logical flaws. He argues that this theory is hopelessly flawed and that its proponents undermine their credibility by subscribing to it.

Over 50 experts on China and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gathered at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, from September 23-25, to attend the 2005 PLA Conference, "The PLA Shapes the Future Security Environment," cosponsored by the Heritage Foundation and the U.S. Army War College.

If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. While China at the mid-point of the Twenty-first Century's first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of China's behavior in conditions of tension and stress is of considerable importance to policy makers and analysts around the world.

American military power has created a strategic revolution by its successful and prolonged projection into and from Central Asia. This monograph explores the strategic and policy ramifications of that revolution in strategic affairs.

The questions of how to empower the Iraqis most effectively and then progressively withdraw non-Iraqi forces from that country is one of the most important policy problems currently facing the United States. The authors seek to present the U.S. situation in Iraq in all of its complexity and ambiguity, with policy recommendations for how that withdrawal strategy might be most effectively implemented.

The author answers questions regarding Who is Hugo Chavez? How can the innumerable charges and countercharges between the Venezuelan and U.S. governments be interpreted? What is Chavez's bolivarianismo? And, What are the implications for stability and instability in Latin America?

The State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), the National Bureau of Asian Research, the Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies of Singapore, and the U.S. Army War College conducted a colloquium on Southeast Asia and American views of China in August 2005 in Singapore.

The author examines the controversies surrounding deployed contractor support, the ways that the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MoD) has harnessed private sector capacity, and the lessons this provides for U.S. policymakers and military planners. He suggests the need for ongoing policy and doctrine refinement by defence officials as well as greater independent scrutiny of developments, not least because the use of contractors on deployed operations has an important impact on government expenditure choices, public accountability, the efficiency and effectiveness of the military establishment, and the conduct and outcome of armed conflict.

The author analyzes the historical roots and recent resurgence of the Abu Sayyaf as a terrorist organization. He examines the triangular relationship between the ASG, Jemaah Islamiyah, and the Moro Islamic Liberation front, and the impact that this relationship has on Philippine and regional security.

Anglo-French appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s has generated a mythology that ignores much of the actual political-military situation at the time and that continues to mislead U.S. foreign policy today.

This paper examines the new strategic reality and its implications on our officers' professional military education, as well as the concepts of individual and organizational agility, specifically investigating adaptability, innovation, and learning. The author recommends a model to develop agile leaders, while making the institutional system more agile as well.

National Security and National Military Strategy to be successful must utilize all elements and tools of power at its disposal. Recognition of the potential value of tribal organizations, particularly in the "arc of instability stretching from the Western Hemisphere, through Africa and the Middle East and extending to Asia" is a must to enhance successful peace and stability operations.

The author makes the case that U.S. strategy demands the U.S. Armed Forces build a force with greater capacity for conducting stabilization operations concurrent with combat operation. He traces the strategic roots of the stabilization requirement, develops a warfighting concept for "progressive stabilization," and makes judgments on whether the Army's current Modular Force effort will generate the right type of force. He concludes by making some recommendations on where the Army should adjust its current modernization effort to make the force more relevant.

On June 16-18, 2005, the Strategic Studies Institute co-hosted a conference on "The Impact of Stability Operations Upon the Armed Forces" in cooperation with the Centre d'Etudes en Sciences Sociales de la Défense, Royal United Services Institute, the Association of the United States Army, the Förderkreis Deutsches Heer, the Heritage Foundation, and the United States Embassy, Paris.

What kind of military will the nation need in the future--and at what cost? The war on terror and the ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have forced upon this country soaring defense budgets and unprecedented challenges in policymaking.

At a time when counterinsurgency is again widely discussed, embattled Colombia has implemented a Democratic Security and Defense Policy that shows every sign of success against a complex narco-insurgency that has raged for four decades. The strategic initiative has been seized by acting upon the principle that personal security is the basis for state vitality.

North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include "traditional, irregular, and catastrophic." While each dimension of these threat capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea's intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions.

The author examines Army Reserve and National Guard enlisted retention patterns from 1995-2002. This study provides a necessary background to compare retention patterns in the past from those of today. Reserve component leadership could then assess their personnel retention efforts to adjust appropriate public policies to improve their force structure.

The readings in this volume address one of the fundamental assumptions underlying the conduct of the War on Terrorism - the nature of our enemy, whether perpetrators of terrorist activities are criminals or soldiers (combatants).

U.S. military access to Central Asia and the Caucasus is a long-standing fact, but it is desirable as well for the future. The author explains why it is necessary, and how we might ensure that we retain this access to confront future contingencies.

The U.S. Army must maintain a strategic perspective—that it take advantage of the collective insights of scholars and senior-level students both within the defense community and beyond. The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL), developed at the U.S. Army War College by SSI, helps the Army identify and bring together those insights.

Liberalized autocracy is a system of rule allowing for a measure of political openness and competition in the electoral, party, and press arenas, while ensuring that power rests in the hands of ruling regimes. While the United States supports such hybrid systems, whether the gap between words and deeds should or can be closed or narrowed is a complex question, since a sudden move from state-managed liberalization to democracy could open the door to Islamist power.

Military transformation strategies are based on overly optimistic assumptions about future defense budgets. Defense plans should take into account fiscal realities, particularly the deficit and debt outlook and domestic program commitments.

Are U.S. policy planners adequately prepared to deal with a potential future burst of populist turbulence in Europe or South America? Steve C. Ropp looks at this understudied phenomenon and offers some suggestions to strategic planners for mitigating its effects on the global democratic core of representative democracies.

The underlying demographic and economic trends driving China's engagement with Latin America are significant and enduring—indicating that China's increased presence in the Western Hemisphere is likely to both endure and expand. This paper explores these trends, their manifestations, and some of the dynamics through which they may impact the national security of the United States.

The author argues that pseudo operations in which specially trained government troops--preferably supported by guerrilla defectors--infiltrate guerrilla groups have been very effective in previous operations. If used with care, such operations can be useful in future counterinsurgency campaigns.

The author concludes that understanding the cultural and symbolic significance of terrorist beheadings is key to defeating them. He recommends political rituals such as elections, war crimes tribunals, and shura councils as countermeasures to affirm the legitimacy and authority of the new Iraqi government.

On April 11-13, 2005, the Strategic Studies Institute co-sponsored a conference on "The U.S.-UK Special Relationship: Past, Present and Future," in cooperation with Dickinson College, and the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom at Shrivenham. The conference was followed by a wrap-up session hosted by the Royal United Services Institute in London. Conference attendees were primarily from the Defence Academy and its associated colleges and research bodies.

On June 4-5, 2004, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University hosted a workshop on the question of nuclear weapons and stability in South Asia. Cosponsored by CISAC and the U.S. Army War College, the workshop brought together approximately 75 scholars, military officers, civilian policymakers, scientists, and journalists.

On April 21-23, 2005, the India Studies Program at Indiana University hosted a conference aimed at assessing the current state of Indo-U.S. relations. More than 20 scholars, policymakers, and military leaders attended the conference, and provided a number of viewpoints on the evolution of the relationship between the two countries. In particular, conference attendees focused on issues pertaining to strategic cooperation and questioned whether we are, in fact, witnessing the convergence of grand strategies between two states that have traditionally maintained tenuous security links.

The John Bassett Moore Society of International Law, University of Virginia School of Law, in cooperation with the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, sponsored a conference, "Beyond the U.S. War on Terrorism: Comparing Domestic Legal Remedies to an International Dilemma," on February 25-26, 2005.

The Latin American and Caribbean Center of Florida International University, the U.S. Southern Command, and the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College held the eighth in a series of major annual conferences dealing with security matters in the Western Hemisphere in Coral Gables, Florida, on March 9-11, 2005.

On March 4-5, 2005, the Strategic Studies Institute and the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS), (Duke University, University of North Carolina and North Carolina State University) co-hosted a conference addressing the question of whether or not the United States has become an empire and, if so, what does that mean for U.S. national security policy?

The U.S. effort to reconstitute Afghanistan as a fully sovereign and functioning state is endangered by endemic warlordism more so than the low-level Taliban/al Qaeda insurgency. LTC Millen offers a shift in strategy that addresses the war of ideas, the counter narcotics initiative, and the incorporation of the Afghan National Army into the provincial reconstruction teams. As LTC Millen observes, all the resources are in place, they simply need a shift in focus.

The author examines the economic, political, technological, and security factors that have shaped recent developments in the U.S. and European defense industries. The author also identifies issues that will shape further industrial restructuring and consolidation in the short- and medium-term, and makes recommendations for assisting the development of a transatlantic, rather than bipolar, defense industrial base.

The U.S. Armed forces may be attempting to effect the wrong transformation. What the country needs is military power that is not only superior at warfare, but also can win wars and the peace that follows--and those are strategic and political competencies.

Three years after 9-11, some of the most important choices for American grand strategy have yet to be made. Heretofore, the costs of pursuing ambitious but ill-defined goals have been high but tolerable; the Iraqi insurgency, however, is raising the costs to the point where choices must be made. The two natural alternatives, rollback and containment, each have strengths. But they also have real drawbacks--and the choice between them rests on some basic, and inherently subjective, value judgments.

The author identifies the political-strategic challenges of contemporary unconventional conflict. He focuses on the political complexity of the gang phenomenon, and the common linkage between third generation gangs and insurgents.

What should the United States do about Saudi Arabia? What is the best course for strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia in light of Islamic extremism in the Kingdom, and calls for political and religious reform?

This study considers the regional consequences of intercommunal warfare in Iraq by examining how such an eventuality may develop and how neighboring states might become involved in such a conflict. This work does not predict an Iraqi civil war but rather views it as a worst-case eventuality. The danger of an Iraqi civil war requires serious U.S. cooperation with those regional states that also have a stake in preventing this outcome.

The Women In International Security (WIIS) and Georgetown University, in cooperation with the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, sponsored a conference, "Stabilization and Post-Conflict Operations: The Role of the Military," on November 17, 2004.

This monograph considers the patterns of past insurgencies by way of establishing how much the conflict in Iraq conforms to previous experience. In particular, the author compares and contrasts Iraq with previous Middle Eastern insurgencies and suggests that there is much that can be learned from British, French, and Israeli experience.

Despite changes in the global security environment stemming from the end of the Cold War, U.S. overseas bases remain vulnerable to ballistic and cruise missiles. This publication explains how technical, strategic and political factors will pose complex and discrete concerns, and makes a series of policy recommendations for how best to diminish the threat.

Logistics transformation has simply not happened to the degree necessitated by today's strategic, operational, and tactical environment. This paper will address the question of why logistics transformation is needed, why it has not yet been realized, what must be changed to achieve a successful transformation, who must change it, and how to reenergize logistics transformation to get results and benefits now.