Neurotically ignoring the fact that Donald Trump’s position on immigration has catapulted him to the lead for the Republican presidential nomination, the media diminish his soaring poll numbers with a scrolling series of rationalizations.

Trump might or might not be the nominee, but the dismissals of him are wishful thinking, not historical fact.

All summer, for example, we were smugly assured that polls mean nothing this far in advance of an election. Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) campaign manager Terry Sullivan assured Politico: “Show me the candidate who was first place in August who ended up winning in February.” …

…In fact, most candidates who were in first place the summer before an election year went on to be the nominee. Luckily, Politico is not a website primarily concerned with politics or it might have known this.

Among them: Ronald Reagan in August 1979, Walter Mondale in August 1983, Michael Dukakis (tied for first) in August 1987, Bob Dole in August 1995; George W. Bush in August 1999 and Mitt Romney in August 2011.

The years when the nominee wasn’t ahead the summer before an election are the outliers, explained by unique circumstances: President George H.W. Bush’s formidable Iraq War poll numbers in the summer of 1991; the GOP electorate going mad in 2007; and, that same year, the Democrats not working up the nerve to tell feminists that Hillary Clinton wasn’t going to be the nominee.

Not only is Trump’s total domination of the polls significant — not to be confused with “insignificant” — but his supporters’ intensity is also consequential. Intense voters man phone banks and talk fence-sitters into voting for their guy.

Comments

As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to edit or remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, anti-Semitism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. The same applies to trolling, the use of multiple aliases, or just generally being a jerk. Enforcement of this policy is at the sole discretion of the site administrators and repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without warning. Guest posting is disabled for security reasons.

Loading...

Join TGP on Facebook

* Facebook is currently censoring conservative content. We hope they will reverse their policy and honor all voices in the near future. Until then please like our page on Facebook and PLEASE check the Gateway Pundit homepage for the latest stories.