Afternoon Report 12-14-98

CBS.MarketWatch.com

LIVESTOCK: DAILY DRESSED BEEF OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: BOXED BEEF SALES WERE LIGHT AS USUAL ON MONDAY MORNING. NOON CUTOUTS WERE UP 14-39 CENTS. CLOSING CUTOUTS ARE EXPECTED MIXED TONIGHT. BUYING INTEREST TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR. BUT BUYERS WILL BE EXPECTING TO BUY LOWER AND ONLY MODERATE QUANTITY. OFFERINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE BUT ADEQUATE FOR DEMAND. PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY STEADY TO LOWER. PACKERS WILL LIKELY KEEP SLAUGHTER LEVEL REDUCED FOR THE WEEK UNLESS DEMAND IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 130,000.

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: BIDS THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY 58-59 DOLLARS, WITH ASKING PRICES STARTING AT 60 DOLLARS. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWLISTS ARE SLIGHTLY LARGER THIS WEEK. TRADING WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AGAIN TUESDAY. MONDAY'S RALLY IN LIVE CATTLE FUTURES WILL ENCOURAGE CATTLE FEEDERS TO HOLD FIRM ON ASKING PRICES. PACKERS HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY SINCE NEEDS ARE CURTAILED BY THE SHORTENED WEEK NEXT WEEK. CORNBELT: 58-59-/93-95 KANSAS: 59 TEXAS: 59

DAILY FEEDER CATTLE OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: PRICES TUESDAY WILL BE WEAK TO 2 DOLLARS LOWER THAN WEEK AGO. RECEIPTS SHOULD BE ONLY MODERATE. SOME FEEDLOTS WILL BE WANTING TO FILL ANOTHER PEN OR TWO BEFORE THE NUMBERS DROP OFF DURING THE HOLIDAYS. SEVERAL AUCTIONS WILL CLOSE FOR THE TWO HOLIDAY WEEKS. BUYING WILL BE SELECTIVE WITH BUYERS PREFERRING THE HIGHER QUALITY FEEDERS. WEATHER REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STARTING YOUNG CATTLE AND CALVES WILL TRADE NEAR STEADY. PLAINS: 64-74 CORNBELT: 66-75

DAILY HOGS/PORK OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: PRICES TUESDAY FOR HOGS WILL BE STEADY TO OFF 50 CENTS. PACKERS NEEDS WILL NOT BE LARGE. PRODUCERS WILL BE WILLING TO MOVE HOGS, AS THEY HAVE BEEN, BUT LIMITED BY PACKERS SLAUGHTER CAPACITY. HOG MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SEVERAL PLANTS WILL BE BIDDING MAINLY FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PORK DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND OFFERINGS HEAVY. PRICES WILL BE LOWER ON HAMS; WEAK/LOWER ON LOINS, AND STEADY/HIGHER ON BELLIES. SLAUGHTER ESTIMATE: 388,000. WI: 8-13.50 WT: 11.50-12.50 EI: 8.50-13 ET: 10.50-11.50

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS FEBRUARY LIVE CATTLE: FIRST SUPPORT 58.08, SECOND 56.43. FIRST RESISTANCE 59.73, SECOND 61.38. APRIL LIVE CATTLE: FIRST SUPPORT 60.41, SECOND 58.71. FIRST RESISTANCE 62.11, SECOND 63.81.

MARCH FEEDERS: FIRST SUPPORT 66.88, SECOND 65.33. FIRST RESISTANCE 68.43, SECOND 69.98.

FEBRUARY LIVE HOGS: FIRST SUPPORT 27.82, SECOND 24.45. FIRST RESISTANCE 31.19, SECOND 34.56. APRIL LIVE HOGS: FIRST SUPPORT 33.24, SECOND 29.47. FIRST RESISTANCE 37.01, SECOND 40.78.

FEBRUARY PORK BELLIES: FIRST SUPPORT 41.44, SECOND 37.31. FIRST RESISTANCE 45.57, SECOND 49.70.

GRAIN: DAILY CORN OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: MARCH CORN FUTURES: UP 1 CENT TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPORT INSPECTIONS WERE 44.5 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 32-36 MILLION BUSHELS EXPECTED. CROP YEAR TOTALS REACHED 500.5 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 439.4 MILLION BUSHELS LAST YEAR. IDEAS ARE THAT MORE SALES WILL BE MADE THIS WEEK DUE TO LOWER PRICES. IT WOULD HELP GRAINS IF THERE IS A BOTTOM MADE IN HOG FUTURES, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. EXTENDED OUTLOOKS CALL FOR COLDER WEATHER, WHICH CAN PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT TO CORN AS FEED DEMAND INCREASES SEASONALLY. DECEMBER 1 STOCKS WILL BE RELEASED JANUARY 12 AND CAN REFLECT THE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE FALL IN MOST FEEDING AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. FEEDING MARGINS IN 1999 WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CORN PRICES. A FEW YEARS AGO, EVEN $5.00 CORN DID NOT CAUSE THE LIQUIDATION MANY EXPECTED.

DAILY SOYBEAN OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: MARCH BEAN FUTURES: DOWN 2 CENTS TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECASTS OF MORE RAIN IN RIO GRANDE PRESSURED SOYBEANS ALL DAY. SO FAR, RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN SHORT-CHANGED, BUT THE TRADE IS FOCUSING ON THE FORECAST. EXPORT INSPECTIONS WERE 25.3 MILLION BUSHELS VS. EXPECTATIONS OF 20 TO 24 MILLION BUSHELS. CROP YEAR TOTALS REMAIN DOWN FROM LAST YEAR AT 320.5 MILLION VS. 422.2 MILLION YEAR-AGO. IN ORDER TO REACH USDA PROJECTIONS, WE MUST AVERAGE ONLY 13.8 MILLION BUSHELS PER WEEK THROUGH AUGUST. NOPA MONTHLY CRUSH IS DUE OUT ON TUESDAY. OIL STOCKS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CRUSH REMAINS HIGH. MEAL STOCKS ARE NOT REPORTED. IDEAS ARE THAT PALM OIL PRODUCTION WILL INCREASE IN 1999, BUT NOVEMBER PRODUCTION WILL BE RELEASED TUESDAY AND WILL BE SHARPLY BELOW LAST YEAR. THE INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN 1999 WILL BRING PRODUCTION BACK UP TO 1997 LEVELS.

DAILY WHEAT OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: CHICAGO MARCH FUTURES: UP 2 CENTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND KANSAS CITY MARCH FUTURES UP 2 CENTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHEAT CLOSED HIGHER ON IDEAS THAT USDA WILL TENDER FOR SOME MORE WHEAT FOR DONATIONS. AN EXPORTER BOUGHT AT LEAST 8 MILLION BUSHELS OF WHEAT FUTURES. EXPORT INSPECTIONS WERE 20.5 MILLION BUSHELS VS. EXPECTATIONS OF 20 TO 24 MILLION BUSHELS. CROP YEAR TOTALS REMAIN BELOW LAST YEAR AT 572.7 MILLION BUSHELS VS. 621.6 MILLION LAST YEAR. WEEKLY CROP BULLETINS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE WINTER, BUT SEVERAL STATES REPORT MONTHLY IN THE WINTER GIVING CONDITION RATINGS. U.S./RUSSIAN AGREEMENTS FOR DONATIONS ARE DUE TO BE SIGNED SOON. THE EU AND RUSSIA HAVE ALREADY REACHED AGREEMENT AND SHIPMENTS CAN BEGIN SOON. USDA MAY OFFER CREDITS FOR RUSSIA TO BUY POULTRY.

DAILY COTTON OUTLOOK 12/14/98 PM: MARCH FUTURES: UP 25 POINTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ICAC PROJECTED THE 1999 U.S. COTTON CROP AT 16.994 MILLION BALES, BUT ACREAGE IS NOT CERTAIN YET. UNLESS PRICES REBOUND, THERE IS LITTLE INCENTIVE TO INCREASE ACRES IN 1999. SUPPLIES OF HIGH QUALITY COTTON FOR DELIVERY ON FUTURES WILL TIGHTEN SHARPLY BY SPRING.

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS 12/14/98 PM: MARCH BEANS: FIRST SUPPORT 5.58, SECOND 5.51. FIRST RESISTANCE 5.64, SECOND 5.71. JULY BEANS: FIRST SUPPORT 5.73, SECOND 5.67. FIRST RESISTANCE 5.78, SECOND 5.84.

MARCH MEAL: FIRST SUPPORT 142.97, SECOND 140.97. FIRST RESISTANCE 144.97, SECOND 146.97. JULY MEAL: FIRST SUPPORT 142.97, SECOND 140.97. FIRST RESISTANCE 144.97, SECOND 146.97.

MARCH OIL: FIRST SUPPORT .2412, SECOND .2371. FIRST RESISTANCE .2453, SECOND .2494. JULY OIL: FIRST SUPPORT .2449, SECOND .2417. FIRST RESISTANCE .2481, SECOND .2513.

MARCH CORN: FIRST SUPPORT 2.22, SECOND 2.20. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.25, SECOND 2.27. JULY CORN: FIRST SUPPORT 2.36, SECOND 2.34. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.37, SECOND 2.39.

MARCH WHEAT: FIRST SUPPORT 2.72, SECOND 2.65. FIRST RESISTANCE 2.79, SECOND 2.86. JULY WHEAT: FIRST SUPPORT 2.92, SECOND 2.85. FIRST RESISTANCE 3.00, SECOND 3.07.

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