Thursday, March 29, 2018

A lot of data out this week about the comics business. Brian Hibbs has his fifteenth (!) annual Bookscan report at ComicsBeat, where he finds the top 750 graphic novels in the book channel stores the service surveys up 3.44% in units and down the same in dollars. The overall category sits at $302 million, up 2.97% — but possibly not, as his 2016 data set was missing some items.

Brian's definition of comics may not match mine in every single case, but it is consistent from year to year, and it does suggest that while Direct Market sales were down in 2017, the book channel's fortunes were better, although not by enough so to pull the year positive. Our year-end report with ICV2 for 2016 found the business at $1.085 billion; while the 2017 report is yet to come, it's probably a safe bet that the total will be down, but remain above $1 billion, likely above every 21st century year through 2014.

It's not correct that there are as many pieces written about the structure of the comics market as there are pieces about the comics themselves, but a down year certainly enhances that feeling. I received such pieces in the mail weekly to Comics Retailer magazine in the 1990s, and then by e-mail — and then saw them all move online. Last week's essay from Augie de Blieck is one of the latest entrants, engendering a response this morning from Heidi MacDonaldwhich also takes in the Bookscan data. Time only occasionally permits me to comment, and almost never to blog on my own, as a look at the history here will show. But I would quickly like to make an observation about the nature of comics retailing business today, as distinct from when it began.

Mel Thompson

I used to run articles in Comics Retailer magazine from Mel Thompson, who ran the retail services firm ComTrac, and I miss the kind of street-level data he shared on comics shops because I believe, more than ever, that Direct Market shops are so variegated that only the most profound systemic shocks affect them equally. Every shop is its own microclimate, its own micro-economy.

What does that mean? In practical terms, it means for every shop's current successes or problems, you can usually throw in a contributing positive (i.e., robust back issue trade, tournament gaming destination) or negative (i.e., skyrocketing downtown rents, failure of a sideline business) factor that helps to explain them.

And I think that points to something that happened since the birth of the Direct Market, which is the collapse of the mid-1990s — a near extinction-level event that we definitely can say took down good shops and bad, new and old, regardless of extraneous factors. The shops that emerged from that period had evolved either to really zero in on a particular local clientele, or had further developed sideline categories to insulate them. They went deep, or went wide. The very earliest comics shops were highly individualized, having their origins in other kinds of businesses — but the shops that opened in the 1980s, once the model was established, were more likely to look alike. That's not so much the case in the 21st century. My local Direct Market outlet is a full service store for new comics, but also is a gaming store and, oh yes, a gourmet sandwich shop. Probably not a lot of other stores share that specific combination!

This is why I think accurate diagnoses of the business as a whole tend to be hard to make — and where looking at systemic factors and solutions tends to fall down: we know how big the Direct Market is, but we don't know to what degree stores nominally in that market are exposed to its forces. Even a possible paper tariff war, the specter of which was raised earlier this week, would be somewhat uneven in its impacts. There just aren't many facts discernible from 30,000 feet that obtain for all shops in the system.

The last Direct Market peak is less than two years old, and dates from the DC Rebirth launch. We know Marvel's sales have been off since then, and that graphic novel sales have also been off — or at least, that retailers haven't bought as many books from Diamond. We know this March is probably going to be off simply because it has one less shipping week. We also know the margin of the year-over-year losses, while certainly meaningful if your store is more impacted, does not suggest a 1990s-style epidemic of closures. We also know this might change — or that it might not. That's about all the information we can really be confident about — and it probably does not support more sweeping observations, pro or con the current arrangement, but that's my own judgment.

A quick note on the aftermarket, which I can speak about with more confidence: while de Blieck may not be finding back-issue bins much in evidence, the aftermarket is in the mix for many stores, even when the stock isn't on the floor. The back issue market — in stores, conventions, and eBay -- is in the nine figures annually, and is probably larger than digital. Chuck Rozanski reported Tuesday that Mile High Comics sales are up 68% month-to-date. Again, a unique microclimate and sample size of one; worth exactly that. But one of the strengths of periodical comics is they are double participants, in both the front- and aftermarkets; a distinction every other kind of magazine publisher would be thrilled for their products to have.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

March is winding down, and while it saw rotten weather in the Northeast, there's at least one anecdotal sign of thaw: Chuck Rozanski reported yesterday that the month to date is up 63% at Mile High Comics. That's highly unlikely for the Direct Market at large in March, which is up against a month with one more shipping week; breaking even would be a considerable feat. But we can at least get a glimpse of what's going on from the latest reorders and advance reorders placed with Diamond Comic Distributors.
Let's look first at how the books already in stores fared, and move on to the future:

TOP REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 19-25, 2018 (in invoiced dollars)

These are items that have already shipped, but have been receiving additional orders from retailers. In most cases below, the items are in stock and so the orders are being filled; occasionally items are back-ordered, so their reorders will enter into the channel once they become available.

These are ranked by invoiced dollars, so retailers' discounts have already applied to the totals before ranking.

The $500 MarvelInfinity Gauntlet Box Hardcover Slipcase Set repeated as both the top hardcover and top item overall in reorders. It was a March 7 item. (Possibly not next week, as it's marked as of today as out of stock at Diamond.) There were quite a lot of hardcovers in the reorder charts this time out, including Green Lantern Earth One Vol. 1, which placed second overall. It was released March 14.

Continuing the Thanos theme, the Infinity Gauntlet trade paperback was the top reordered softcover.Oblivion Song #1repeated as the top comic book reordered. It's had that status three weeks in a row. It arrived in stores March 7.

The links in the table go to the Diamond information pages for each book.

And now on to the future...TOP ADVANCE REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 19-25, 2018 (in full retail dollars)

These are items that have not yet shipped, but for which the Final Order Deadlines have passed.

These reorders, if books are available to fill them, may or may not land in the same shipping month as the books' release weeks, so a book's presence on this chart can mean that an item might make a repeat appearance in Diamond's monthly top-seller charts.After a week in which Action Comics #1000advance reorderspushed much else out of the advance reorder chart, Marvel returned to take 18 out of the Top 25 spots. The regular edition of Amazing Spider-Man #799, due out April 18, was the top advance-reordered comic, followed by one of its variants and reprints of two earlier issues.The Ricanstruction: Reminiscing and Rebuilding Puerto Rico benefit anthology from Somos Arte was the top advance-reordered trade paperback; it's expected to go on sale May 23. No hardcovers made the charts.
This chart is ranked by full retail dollars and not units, or wholesale dollars.

We've seen enough reorders and advance from the past few weeks from Diamond Comic Distributors to be able to collate some information onto pages for March 2018, April 2018, and May 2018. Check them out for a further glance at the future.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Action Comics#1000is one of April's bigger headlines, and the advance reorders placed by retailers from Diamond Comic Distributorslast week definitely reflects that. Let's look first at how the books already in stores fared, and move on to the future:

TOP REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 12-18, 2018 (in invoiced dollars)

These are items that have already shipped, but have been receiving additional orders from retailers. In most cases below, the items are in stock and so the orders are being filled; occasionally items are back-ordered, so their reorders will enter into the channel once they become available.

These are ranked by invoiced dollars, so retailers' discounts have already applied to the totals before ranking.

In second place last week, Marvel'sInfinity Gauntlet Box Hardcover Slipcase Set, which at $500 is the most expensive item seen in these charts this year, was the top reordered hardcover or item of any kind, by dollars. It was a March 7 item.Oblivion Song #1, so long the most advance-reordered comic book releasing in March, was the top comic book reordered. It also arrived in stores March 7.

Second was Oni's Rick & Morty Presents the Vindicators#1, which sold out of its March 7 release and now has a reprint set for April 11. As such, filled- and unfilled-orders for the issue caused it to make both the reorder and the advance reorder charts.

Continuing with the theme, the first Rick & Mortytrade paperback from 2015 was the top reordered softcover.

The links in the table go to the Diamond information pages for each book.

And now on to the future...TOP ADVANCE REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 12-18, 2018 (in full retail dollars)

These are items that have not yet shipped, but for which the Final Order Deadlines have passed.

These reorders, if books are available to fill them, may or may not land in the same shipping month as the books' release weeks, so a book's presence on this chart can mean that an item might make a repeat appearance in Diamond's monthly top-seller charts.Marvel had ruled the advance reorder charts for several weeks, but a comic book a thousand issues in the making happened along. Action Comics #1000, due out on April 18, was the top advance-reordered April issue — and all 10 of its covers made the Top 12. Domino#1 was the top Marvel title, in second. It goes on sale April 11.Perhaps as a consequence of the Action issues, no graphic novels, hardcover or softcover, made the list at all.
This chart is ranked by full retail dollars and not units, or wholesale dollars.

We've seen enough reorders and advance from the past few weeks from Diamond Comic Distributors to be able to collate some information onto pages for March 2018, April 2018, and May 2018. Check them out for a further glance at the future.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

With theFebruary sales estimates posted earlier this week, we now have another look at March with the top books that comics shops reordered from Diamond Comic Distributors. Let's look first at how the books already in stores fared, and move on to the future:

TOP REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 5-11, 2018 (in invoiced dollars)These are items that have already shipped, but have been receiving additional orders from retailers. In most cases below, the items are in stock and so the orders are being filled; occasionally items are back-ordered, so their reorders will enter into the channel once they become available.

These are ranked by invoiced dollars, so retailers' discounts have already applied to the totals before ranking.

The top reordered comic book was Terrifics #1 by DC, which shipped on February 28; it's still available through Diamond, though its inventory is currently marked as low. Oblivion Song#1 from Image was the top March-shipping comic book reordered.

The links in the table go to the Diamond information pages for each book.

And now on to the future...TOP ADVANCE REORDERED ITEMS for Mar. 5-11, 2018 (in full retail dollars)

These are items that have not yet shipped, but for which the Final Order Deadlines have passed.

These reorders, if books are available to fill them, may or may not land in the same shipping month as the books' release weeks, so a book's presence on this chart can mean that an item might make a repeat appearance in Diamond's monthly top-seller charts.Marvel's command of the advance reorder charts increased this week, going from 15 of the 25 top spots to 17. The top advance-reordered comic book and top advance-reordered item overall was the regular edition of Amazing Spider-Man #798, which goes on sale April 4.

No hardcovers in the chart, but we did have the new printing of Black Panther: Shuri - Deadliest of the Speciesas the top advance-reordered graphic novel. Also an April 4 release.
This chart is ranked by full retail dollars and not units, or wholesale dollars.

We've seen enough reorders and advance from the past few weeks from Diamond Comic Distributors to be able to collate some information onto pages for March 2018 and April 2018. A page has also been started with the first data from May 2018. Check them out for a further glance at the future.

It is, firstly, a weak February of the sort we have often seen, with few high-profile releases — particularly when it comes to graphic novels, with no new release breaking 3,000 copies, and the repeat bestseller Saga Vol. 8 not much above that level. The top seller among comics, furthermore, Dark Nights Rising: Wild Hunt #1 weighed in with more than 101,000 copies shipped in this Doomsday Clock-less month — and that's the lowest level for a bestseller since May 2011, a short while before the DC "New 52" relaunch. (Overall unit sales remain 15% higher than that month.)

That said — and I have long tried to look for contrary indicators in both up months and down ones — last February's bestseller wasn't much above that level. At the lower rankings, the 300th place beat the comic at the same level in the previous February — and this February's comics unit sales beat those of this past December, our last four-week month for comparison, achieving higher sales levels at 50th, 100th, 150th, 300th, 400th, and 500th places. Observers should want to see it beat the previous year's totals at more than just the 300th place level before thinking much of that, of course; we won't get a straight comparison in March 2018, though, as March 2017 had one more shipping week.

Black Panther came out in February, but while the blockbuster film generated significant reorder traffic, most of that will be reflected in March.

The year-to-date page will be updated soon. In the meantime, the vital statistics:

Friday, March 9, 2018

With no new Doomsday Clock issue in the offing, February was a slow month in comics shops, according to Comichron's analysis of data released this morning by Diamond Comic Distributors. But whereas comics and graphic novels were equally responsible for 2017's overall shortfall, last month graphic novels were the main culprit, with periodicals nearly, but not quite, holding their own.

Retailers ordered $36.66 million in comics and graphic novels; comics were off 3% in dollars and graphic novels off 18.5% to land down 8% for the month.

An important thing to remember when looking at the February 2018 data is to ignore the comics units sales, because the year-to-year comparisons are impacted by last February's 25th anniversary Image event, which included a reported 750,000 copies of a 25¢ issue of Walking Dead. (Walking Dead #163 will not be found in our charts for that month, because Diamond reports nothing with a cover price below $1.). Combine that with January 2017's 10% overship on Marvel's entire line, and the comics unit year-to-date comparisons are a total wreck.

The 6.3 million copies shipped this February finds a nearer comparative in the last four-week month we experienced, December 2017 — and there, comics unit sales were slightly up over that month. (Granted, December was pretty bad, but how often does February outsell December? Not very.) Comics dollar sales are going to be much more representative of reality — and here they're the bright spot, again only off 3% in February year-to-year. Had there been a Doomsday Clock issue in February, the category might have been nearer to break-even still.

The comparatives are here; remember that January had an extra New Comics Day:

Dollars

Units

February 2018 vs. January 2018

Comics

-3.40%

-6.02%

Graphic Novels

-14.54%

-16.60%

Total Comics/GNs

-6.72%

-6.83%

Toys

-10.48%

-13.65%

February 2018 vs. February 2017

Comics

-3.01%

-19.67%

Graphic Novels

-18.53%

-14.13%

Total Comics/GNs

-7.81%

-19.31%

Toys

-10.28%

-1.44%

Year-To-Date 2018 Vs. Year-To-Date 2017

Comics

-3.67%

-15.61%

Graphic Novels

-7.77%

-4.17%

Total Comics/GNs

-4.88%

-14.86%

Toys

5.11%

7.96%

DC appears to have almost exactly paced the market overall, with Image and Dark Horse shipping slightly more dollars worth of material than they did a year ago. Marvel, Titan, and IDW were behind their individual paces from February 2017. Dynamite was significantly ahead.

Some of that plays out in the market shares:

Publisher

Dollar Share

Unit Share

Marvel

34.86%

36.94%

DC

31.79%

36.61%

Image

10.49%

10.82%

IDW

3.58%

2.63%

Dark Horse

2.85%

1.68%

Dynamite

2.40%

2.29%

Boom

2.37%

2.12%

Viz

1.19%

0.46%

Titan

1.01%

0.67%

Oni

0.94%

0.53%

Other

8.54%

5.24%

DC's Dark Nights Rising: The Wild Hunt #1 led comics sales in a month with the exact same number of new comics released as in the previous February; Image, Dark Horse, and Dynamite released a few more, IDW a few less. The top-selling comics by number of copies shipped:

TOP COMIC BOOKS (by units)

PRICE

PUBLISHER

1

Dark Knights Rising: The Wild Hunt #1

$4.99

DC

2

X-Men Red #1

$4.99

Marvel

3

Batman #40

$2.99

DC

4

Batman #41

$2.99

DC

5

The Walking Dead #176

$3.99

Image

6

Batman: White Knight #5

$3.99

DC

7

Peter Parker: Spectacular Spider-Man #300

$5.99

Marvel

8

Star Wars #43

$3.99

Marvel

9

Infinity Countdown Prime #1

$4.99

Marvel

10

Amazing Spider-Man #796

$3.99

Marvel

The top-selling comics by dollar volume results in a slightly different list:

TOP COMIC BOOKS (by dollars)

PRICE

PUBLISHER

1

Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #300

$5.99

Marvel

2

Dark Knights Rising: The Wild Hunt #1

$4.99

DC

3

X-Men Red #1

$4.99

Marvel

4

The Walking Dead #176

$3.99

Image

5

Batman: White Knight #5

$3.99

DC

6

Batman #40

$2.99

DC

7

Batman #41

$2.99

DC

8

Infinity Countdown Prime #1

$4.99

Marvel

9

Star Wars: Thrawn #1

$4.99

Marvel

10

Swamp Thing Winter Special #1

$7.99

DC

Graphic novels, for their part, lacked any kind of real hit in February; when an already-released graphic novel beats anything new, that becomes pretty obvious. Image's Saga Vol. 8 was the most reordered graphic novel for almost the entire month, and those reorders combined to give it the top slot. More than 460,000 graphic novels were shipped overall. The top graphic novels by units shipped:

TOP GRAPHIC NOVELS (by units)

PRICE

PUBLISHER

1

Saga Vol. 8

$14.99

Image

2

Star Wars: Doctor Aphra Vol. 2

$17.99

Marvel

3

DC Meets Looney Tunes

$19.99

DC

4

Teen Titans Vol. 2: The Rise of Aqualad

$14.99

DC

5

Star Wars: Jedi of the Republic: Mace Windu

$15.99

Marvel

6

Justice League Vol. 5: Legacy

$16.99

DC

7

Despicable Deadpool Vol. 1: Deadpool Kills Cable

$17.99

Marvel

8

Titans Vol. 3: A Judas Among Us

$16.99

DC

9

Astonishing X-Men Vol. 1: The Life of X

$17.99

Marvel

10

Neil Gaiman'S American Gods Vol. 1: Shadows

$29.99

Dark Horse

And the top graphic novels by dollar volume:

TOP GRAPHIC NOVELS (by dollars)

PRICE

PUBLISHER

1

House of Secrets: The Bronze Age Omnibus HC

$125.00

DC

2

Daredevil: Shadowland Omnibus HC

$125.00

Marvel

3

Absolute Wonder Woman By Azzarello & Chiang Vol. 2 HC

$125.00

DC

4

Deadpool By Daniel Way Omnibus Vol. 1 HC

$100.00

Marvel

5

Batman: Secrets: Sam Kieth Gallery Edition HC

$125.00

DC

6

Moebius Library: Inside Moebius Vol. 1 HC

$39.99

Dark Horse

7

Neil Gaiman'S American Gods Vol. 1: Shadows HC

$29.99

Dark Horse

8

New Teen Titans Omnibus Vol. 2 HC

$75.00

DC

9

Dc Meets Looney Tunes

$19.99

DC

10

Star Wars: Doctor Aphra Vol. 2 SC

$17.99

Marvel

While new comics offerings were exactly the same in quantity from year to year, the top four publishers released 10% fewer new graphic novels, although other publishers made up the gap, meaning that 7% more new graphic novels were released this February versus last February. The new release volume:

Publisher

Comics shipped

Graphic Novels shipped

Magazines

Total shipped

DC

88

33

1

122

Marvel

81

31

0

112

Image

70

12

0

82

IDW

31

19

1

51

Boom

25

13

0

38

Dark Horse

16

13

0

29

Dynamite

20

6

0

26

Titan

12

11

1

24

Viz

0

20

0

20

Oni

3

5

0

8

Other

103

155

23

281

TOTAL SHIPPED

449

318

26

793

We've also seen enough reorders and advance from the past few weeks from Diamond Comic Distributors to be able to collate some information onto pages for March 2018 andApril 2018.

Winter, as I have often said, is not where most turnarounds have historically begun in the Direct Market; while we know a few things already about this March, the first quarter of 2018 is almost certain to end down given that last March had an extra sales week. Recent years haven't really gotten rolling until Free Comic Book Day, so keep watching. In the meantime, look here early next week for the final estimates for the month.

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Black Panther's command of the reorder lists only increased last week, with nine softcover and hardcover books among the top books that comics shops reordered from Diamond Comic Distributors. That's up from seven the week before. Let's look first at how the books already in stores fared, and move on to the future:

TOP REORDERED ITEMS for Feb. 26-Mar. 4, 2018 (in invoiced dollars)

These are items that have already shipped, but have been receiving additional orders from retailers. In most cases below, the items are in stock and so the orders are being filled; occasionally items are back-ordered, so their reorders will enter into the channel once they become available.

These are ranked by invoiced dollars, so retailers' discounts have already applied to the totals before ranking.

And now on to the future...TOP ADVANCE REORDERED ITEMS for Feb. 26-Mar. 4, 2018 (in full retail dollars)

These are items that have not yet shipped, but for which the Final Order Deadlines have passed.

These reorders, if books are available to fill them, may or may not land in the same shipping month as the books' release weeks, so a book's presence on this chart can mean that an item might make a repeat appearance in Diamond's monthly top-seller charts.

Marvel's command of the advance reorder charts lessened this week, going from 21 of the 25 top spots to 15. The top advance-reordered comic book and top advance-reordered item overall was the Stuart Immonen third printing variant ofAmazing Spider-Man #794. It's expected to go on sale March 28.

The top April-shipping comic book was the second printing Alex Ross cover of Amazing Spider-Man #797. That issue is expected to become available April 4.

And we have our first May-shipping title in the advance reorder charts: It's — there's a theme here — Amazing Spider-Man #800, a $9.99 96-page issue due out May 30 wrapping up Dan Slott's ten-year run.No hardcovers or softcovers on the advance reorder list this week at all, though that 96-pager would qualify if not for its issue number!
This chart is ranked by full retail dollars and not units, or wholesale dollars.

We've seen enough reorders and advance from the past few weeks from Diamond Comic Distributors to be able to collate some information onto pages for February 2018 and March 2018. A page for April 2018 has also been started. Check them out for a further glance at the future.

I'll be appearing at Midsouthcon in Memphis this weekend. Be sure to say hi!

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