One seat short of a majority, McGuinty focuses on the positive

A long, nail-biting night for the Ontario Liberals gathered at Ottawa’s Chateau Laurier finally ended at midnight, when Dalton McGuinty swooped in to wild cheers from supporters and a remix of Kanye West’s “Stronger.”

It was a slightly ironic song choice, given that McGuinty’s team was reduced Thursday to just 53 seats from the 70 seats it held at dissolution – exactly one short of a majority government.

But McGuinty wasn’t quite willing to concede that in the wee hours of Friday. He told the crowd it will still be “several days” before the results are final in all the ridings, and concentrated on the positive.

McGuinty’s reduced seat count was a boon for both Tim Hudak’s PCs and Andrea Horwath’s NDP, who saw their seat counts rise. But this wasn’t quite the change Hudak was hoping for.

Just a few months ago, a Liberal victory was unthinkable. The party has ruled Ontario since 2003, and voters were not looking on the province’s 8 per cent unemployment rate and $14-billion deficit kindly.

Long before the writ dropped, the Progressive Conservatives were out of the gate chanting change, change, change. Party leader Tim Hudak denounced McGuinty as “The Tax Man.” He was beating the premier in the polls into the summer months.

McGuinty took pride in his come-from-behind victory, telling the few hundred supporters gathered in Ottawa, “We didn’t listen to the naysayers. We listened to Ontarians.”

The winds seemed to change when the campaign officially started and voters started to tune into the race. McGuinty’s momentum grew with personable election ads and a strong debate performance. He shot up in the polls. Last week, he won endorsements from the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star. Meanwhile, the conservative Sun chain refused to give anyone an endorsement – a strong head-shake at Hudak, given the outlet’s conservative leanings.

Maybe the PCs peaked too early – or maybe the Liberals were underestimated, says management expert Sandford Borins from the University of Toronto. That happened to McGuinty the last time around, too.

“Hudak, I think, projects cynicism about the government, which is OK. But he doesn’t project a level of seriousness or gravitas about himself,” Borins said. “[McGuinty] still projects an air of energy and enthusiasm for what he’s doing. And after two terms, that’s unusual.”

Borins said the PC campaign treaded into overkill territory. The boiled-down message grew tired. Voters who thought they wanted change were no longer sure they wanted Hudak to deliver it.

“Ontario voters often have a desire to split their loyalties, to make sure that there are parties of opposite colour in Ottawa and Toronto,” Borins said.

This was especially true among Toronto voters, who faced a Conservative “hat trick” at the municipal, provincial and federal levels.

Now it’s McGuinty who scored the hat-trick, and the three-time premier has some promises to keep. Rodney Haddow, a policy professor at the University of Toronto, said to expect a mix of caution and coin.

“McGuinty, since he was first elected, has been a cautious premier when it comes to making spending commitments. But he does have a certain vision that’s more positive of what government should do.”

However, the so-called “Tax Man” will need to honour his pledge to not raise taxes – and that will restrict what he can do in the future.

Borins doesn’t think the “minor setback” to 53 seats will make a big difference to the government.

“No one will challenge them,” he said.

Education and green energy have been the most important planks of the Liberal platform, and so Haddow expects to see full-day kindergarten rolled out, and green energy commitments honoured. A more difficult task to pull off is his promise to reduce tuition fees for students from lower-income families.

But the Liberal camp was all celebration, chanting “Four more years!” to a beaming premier.

“Liberalism in this great country of ours is alive and well,” McGuinty said. “Ontarians are telling us, we are placing our trust in you. But we expect you to work even harder, listen more than ever, give us nothing but your best every day.”