Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 11. Solar wind
speed ranged between 388 and 703 km/sec. A coronal stream was in progress all day. However, one or two solar wind shocks could be
detected in ACE data. The first was exactly at noon when solar wind speed increased to near 600 km/sec accompanied by a brief
increase in solar wind density. The second, and most obvious candidate for a solar wind shock was at 13:53 UTC when solar wind
speed increased abruptly from 610 to nearly 700 km/sec. ACE EPAM data confirms that a solar wind shock passed by the spacecraft at
that time. This shock was caused by the arrival of the halo CME observed on November 9 following an M4 event in region 10180. The
presence of a coronal stream at the time when this CME arrived had surprising effects on the interplanetary magnetic field. The
IMF weakened a lot and was northwards for the remainder of the day.

At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 11 C and 3 M class events were recorded during the
day. Old region 10175 behind the northwest limb produced a C4.9 flare at 01:23 UTC.

Region 10177 rotated out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 10180 decayed quickly losing many spots and about half of its penumbral area. Further M class flaring is
possible until the region rotates out of view on Nov.13. Flares:
C2.9 long duration event peaking at 06:10, M2.9/1N long duration event peaking at 07:33, C7.1/1F long duration event peaking at
12:54, C5.0 at 13:41, C6.5 at 14:45, M1.5 at 15:24, M1.8/1N long duration event peaking at 16:20 and C2.2 at 21:02 UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable.
Region 10185 decayed further and was quiet.
Region 10188 decayed and was spotless by the end of the day. Flare: C2.4 long
duration event peaking at 04:38 UTC.
Region 10189 decayed and was spotless before noon.
Region 10190 was quiet and stable
Region 10191 developed further and spread out over a large area. No magnetic delta structures were visible by noon. A major flare is possible. Flare:
C7.4 long duration event peaking at 22:56 UTC.
New region 10192 emerged in the northeast quadrant near midnight, developed quickly early on, then began to decay.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 10: A partial halo CME with the main part of the ejection off the southwest limb was observed after the M2 event in region 10180 early in the day.
This CME could reach Earth on November 12. A CME was
observed off the east limb during the morning following a long duration C5 event in region 10191.

November 11: A large filament eruption in the southern hemisphere began near 11h UTC and produced a partial halo CME. The CME
is probably not geoeffective. A long duration M1 event in region 10180 after 16h UTC was associated with a CME off the southwest
limb. A long duration C7 event in region 10191 was likely associated with a CME off of the southeast limb late in the day.

Coronal holes

A trans equatorial
coronal hole will be in a geoeffective position on November 12-13.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 12. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 12-13 and the first half of November 14. During the latter
half of November 14 a strong coronal stream is likely to arrive and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions early on,
becoming unsettled to minor storm by the latter half of November 15. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

The above image is a test composite image displaying the currently spotted regions overlaid by a coronal hole image. The
basis for the region image is a SOHO/MDI image late on November 11. Region numbering and other image processing has been applied by
myself.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10177

2002.10.30

1

N18W90

0090

HSX

rotated out of view

10179

2002.11.01

S01W60

plage

10180

2002.11.01

23

13

S11W69

0450

FKI

beta-gamma
area was near 0250
at midnight

10181

2002.11.02

S07W73

plage

10182

2002.11.02

1

1

S19W50

0060

HSX

10184

2002.11.03

S05W54

plage

10185

2002.11.03

16

12

S13W30

0120

CAO

10186

2002.11.05

N20W76

plage

10187

2002.11.06

N08W57

plage

10188

2002.11.06

4

N10W48

0020

CAO

now spotless

10189

2002.11.06

5

N15W04

0020

BXO

spotless before noon

10190

2002.11.07

1

1

S22E00

0020

HSX

10191

2002.11.08

52

45

S18E39

0550

FAC

beta-gamma

10192

2002.11.11

4

3

N13E08

0010

BXO

S25

emerged on
2002.11.05

N15W57

plage

S29

emerged on
2002.11.08

N15W14

plage

S30

emerged on
2002.11.10

S17W06

plage

Total spot count:

107

75

SSN:

197

135

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.10

207.6

125.5

114.0 (-0.1)

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

(109.0 predicted, -1-5)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(107.0 predicted, -2.0)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(103.6 predicted, -3.4)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(100.2 predicted, -3.4)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(96.4 predicted, -4.8)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(92.3 predicted, -4.1)

2002.11

180.6 (1)

74.4 (2)

(87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.