Obama, Romney tied nationally in Gallup poll

posted at 9:50 am on November 4, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The White House can’t be pleased by today’s numbers from Gallup. Barack Obama does no better than a tie against Mitt Romney nationally at 47 each — and in swing states, he trails by a point at 46/47:

Registered voters nationally and in 12 key swing states are evenly divided in their preferences for president in the 2012 election between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Romney is at least somewhat more competitive versus Obama than either Rick Perry or Herman Cain, in polling conducted before the recent allegations of sexual harassment against Cain surfaced.

The “swing state” results are from the initial USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, based on Oct. 20-27 Gallup Daily tracking in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election. The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. USA Today and Gallup will report on voters’ preferences in this group of states at least monthly leading up to the 2012 election.

The comparison national presidential trial-heat results reported above are based on Gallup Daily tracking Oct. 26-27. These are similar to what Gallup measured nationally earlier this year. Romney and Obama were essentially tied in Gallup’s September presidential trial heat update, with Obama having a slight edge versus Perry. This is Gallup’s first measurement of Obama versus Cain. In general, these trial heats are more favorable to Obama than Gallup’s measure of Obama versus a generic Republican, which generally shows Obama trailing.

Actually, Rick Perry isn’t all that far behind Obama, either. He trails 45/49 nationally and 44/49 in the swing states. Herman Cain does a little better at 46/48 and 45/48 respectively, but the poll was taken last week, before the publication of allegations against Cain from his days at the National Restaurant Association. While Cain appears to be holding his Republican voters, it’s probably safe to assume the overall numbers will sag in the next iteration of this survey.

However, the big problem for Obama is not the numbers, but their timing. Every Republican primary contender has a disadvantage in these surveys as Democrats are fairly united on Obama as their nominee, while Republicans are passionately split on theirs. Romney, for instance, has had a consistent cap on support from GOP primary voters of about 25-28%, with plenty of anti-Romney — and yet he manages to muscle into a tie with registered voters. Rick Perry has descended into single digits in some primary polling, and yet he gets within 4 or 5 points of Obama. And while the media tried to paint Cain as a novelty candidate, the Georgia business leader grabs a virtual tie with the leader of the free world.

When Republicans unite around a nominee, Obama will find himself in a deep hole.

Blowback

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Republicans also carry an enthusiasm advantage into the 2012 election campaign. By more than 2 to 1 – 32 percent to 15 percent – Republicans in swing states are more likely than Democrats to say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting for president next year,

….

In the 2004 election, which resulted in a narrow win for Bush, Republicans and Democrats were about equally enthusiastic on this measure.

I hear the Mittster a comin’
He’s rollin’ ’round the Rasmussen,
And I ain’t seen a real conservative,
Since, I don’t know when,
I’m stuck in Rino Prison,
And time keeps draggin’ on,
But that Mittster keeps a-rollin’,
On down to Pennsylvania avenue.

When I was just a baby,
My Mama told me, “Son,
Always be a good boy,
Don’t ever give up your guns,”
But I disparaged a man from Jersey,
Just to watch him fade,
When I hear that whistle blowin’,
I hang my head and cry.

I bet there’s rich folks eatin’,
In a fancy dining car,
They’re probably drinkin’ coffee,
And smokin’ big cigars,
But I know I had it comin’,
I know I can’t be free,
But those establishment elite keep a-movin’,
And that’s what tortures me.

Well, if they freed me from this prison,
If that railroad train was mine,
I bet I’d move out over a little,
Farther down the line,
Far from Rino Prison,
That’s where I want to stay,
And I’d let that lonesome whistle,
Blow my Blues away

Romney, for instance, has had a consistent cap on support from GOP primary voters of about 25-28%

Ed – I don’t understand why you persist in this narrative… oh, wait, nevermind – it’s just “business”… but still, if you’re going to include this line, it would be nice to include the full picture of the other candidates which poll after poll show having a lower and in many cases MUCH lower cap on support.

An average of +9.20% Obama winning. Now he’s at -1%? I think if you took out some of the states they are considering swing states but will almost assuredly go Obama (MI, WI for instance), that number has got to be waaaaaay lower.

Obama getting 47% on the national level just reinforces what happens to the public educational system when it is turned over to a labor union. When the Communist Party openly endorses Obama, it might be a problem. When the mainstream media refuses to mention it, it is definitely is a problem.

Interesting that they don’t consider Indiana to be a “swing state” even though Obama won it last time by 1 point, but they do consider PA, WI, NM and NV to be even though Obama won all of them by more than 10 points last time.

Well, I guess the good thing about Romney is that his excess baggage is already out there. We know he is a RINO. That alone should disqualify him, but it won’t. Unfortunately for Cain and Gringrich, their excess baggage hurts them.

Don’t forget it is in the MFM/pollsters/dems interest to show the SCOAMF has a chance! Then a Nate Silver or many others do an analysis that says obama is a goner…or go talk to people and find one (not a gov’t “worker” that doesn’t despise obama…no can do

Well, I guess the good thing about Romney is that his excess baggage is already out there. bloggless on November 4, 2011 at 10:14 AM

I don’t know about that. The MSM is in the business of lying and destroying people for their cause. They are evil and that fact cannot be underestimated. Just because Romney is clean, doesn’t mean he won’t be accused. We still know nothing about the Cain situation.

I wish that our eventual GOP nominee (whom I will rally behind) will not be slandered by the MSM. But, that cannot be stopped.

This is just among registered voters. Gallup itself says that’s a 3-5 point advantage for Democrats. The more accurate question would be adding a filter for likely voters. A real life example from Gallup itself showing a 4 point swing in 2004:

Here’s an example. Gallup’s final poll before the 2004 election showed the following:

Registered voters
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 48%

Likely voters
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%

Kerry was ahead among registered voters by 2 points, while Bush was ahead among likely voters by 2 points.

The final election result? Bush won the popular vote over Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points, almost exactly what our likely voter estimate predicted. Had we reported only registered voters, we would have estimated a Kerry victory. In other words, had all registered voters turned out in 2004, Kerry would have been elected president. But all registered voters didn’t turn out. There was a Republican advantage among those who did turn out. And Bush won.

Bottom line: Obama is way underwater a year out with no GOP standard bearer to unite behind.

I’ll tell you what, while he’s not my favorite candidate, I think we all have to be realistic and admit that Romney has the best chance of kicking the current disaster out of the White House. This is why – feel free to disagree. And – I am not supporting Romney – just trying to be intellectually honest.

5. Romney has the support of the Republican establishment, and will draw the least friendly fire from it – therefore less damaged than other candidates by the time the general election arrives.

6. Romney seems not to have skeletons in the closet – his Mormonism helps him in this way. All he has to do is wait for the “magic underwear” ads and then ridicule those people as wackos.

So – it seems to me that the best way to get Romney to not be a total squish is to force him to take some firm conservative positions, if possible. The other candidates must force him to the right as much as possible, so that he will try to appeal to the conservative base.

How do we do this? I suppose it is our job to dig up as many liberal Romney policies as we can, then hammer him with them until he repudiates them, so that he can govern more from the right.

Because – in the end – we all know we’d take Mitt in a heartbeat over the current excrescence in the Oval Office.

So – it seems to me that the best way to get Romney to not be a total squish is to force him to take some firm conservative positions, if possible. The other candidates must force him to the right as much as possible, so that he will try to appeal to the conservative base.

How do we do this? I suppose it is our job to dig up as many liberal Romney policies as we can, then hammer him with them until he repudiates them, so that he can govern more from the right.

Because – in the end – we all know we’d take Mitt in a heartbeat over the current excrescence in the Oval Office.

War Planner – I will accept blowback as long as it is not ad hominem. I’m getting fed up with some of the hyper-partisans here. I just posted this on another thread, but I’ll re-post it here, and hope people will think about it a bit:

I am very disturbed by the way a lot of bloggers on this site have turned on each other with the worst extended period of ad hominem strife I can ever remember on HotAir. There have been some very ugly overnight threads. For whatever reason, it has seemed to me that Perry supporters do seem to usually be involved, either as attacker or attackee.

I would like to ask everyone to back off this hyper-partisan defense of their currently chosen candidates, and concentrate on the policies and on picking the best one.

Lately, it seems that many here are viewing each comment pro- or con- a candidate, through their own personal prism of which candidate they support – then trying to identify who’s on what team, and then going to war here on HotAir, resulting in non-stop friendly fire.

This same back-biting crap is what sank LGF. Even before Charles Johnson lost his nut, LGF was dying because of exactly the same personal, cross-thread targeting of posters that I see quickly developing here at HotAir.

Will everyone please take a step back – a deep breath – and try to dial back the current ad hominem war here?

I really like this site – and, I think it does hold some political influence – which will diminish if we all devolve into crapping all over each other. We’re not even to the first primary yet! This has to stop.

“Romney said he’d also eliminate federal subsidies for Amtrak and reduce federal support for the National Endowment for the Arts, The National Endowment for the Humanities, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Some programs would be easy to cut because “I just don’t like them,” Romney said, while others might be harder but worth it. He specifically referenced the $1.6 billion in federal subsidies for Amtrak. He also called for cuts in foreign aid, noting that the U.S. provides $10 million to one of its creditors, China. “It’s not very much money but just the idea just galls me,” Romney said.

Arguing that fiscal responsibility is the “moral choice,” Romney offered as an evidence of his belt-tightening expertise the early days of Bain Capital, an investment firm he co-founded. Employees worked out of an empty warehouse in a supermarket parking lot, and Romney said he required them to pay for the pizza and Coke served at board meetings.”

I just read the Perry work-visa story.
Perry does have a point in that if we can start controlling the flow by identifying these people, that’s a start.

If illegals are required to have a work visa, then that does get them in the system. What I then would like to see is employers being forced to pay illegals just like everyone else. I mean the reporting. The wages. The payroll taxes, etc. etc.

If employers are now forced to choose between paying the same amount to an illegal or to an American citizen, this definitely changes the playing field in favor of the America worker.

Right now, illegals are undercutting American jobs at every turn, due to corrupt business owners.

War Planner – I will accept blowback as long as it is not ad hominem. I’m getting fed up with some of the hyper-partisans here.
…
cane_loader on November 4, 2011 at 10:55 AM

..I agree and *am* sympathetic to those who are frustrated with Romney. Putting myself in the shoes of — say — a Ron Paul supporter who constantly gets blowback about “Uncle Ron” or “the grumpy old man”, I know that would be grating.

Many here truly dislike Romney (he still has to go a bit prove himself to me) and I respect that because they make valid points for their disapproval. At the end of the day, we are all on the same team here and, come next May or June, we will be facing a dire enemy whose unstated but abundantly clear intent is to fundamentally change this country into a socialist society AS FAST AS THEY CAN.

Romney, if nominated, will not gravitate towards that end one millionth as blatantly as the overt power grab by this Asss-Clown, his Chicago political machine, and union thugs.

Besides, we have made some significant strides towards getting this country to listen to the conservative message. We have many Tea Party champions in Congress now and, with the farm system we put in place in 2010, the prospect for turning the Congress more read than before. If Romney is our nominee, he must listen to these folks and the people lest he receive a challenge from within his own party.

All of that said, my personal promise is that I will work equally hard for any nominee to come out of this process. Even if it is Ron Paul, he is 1,000 time better than Obama and his thugs.

Besides, we have made some significant strides towards getting this country to listen to the conservative message. We have many Tea Party champions in Congress now and, with the farm system we put in place in 2010, the prospect for turning the Congress more read than before. If Romney is our nominee, he must listen to these folks and the people lest he receive a challenge from within his own party.

All of that said, my personal promise is that I will work equally hard for any nominee to come out of this process. Even if it is Ron Paul, he is 1,000 time better than Obama and his thugs.

If illegals are required to have a work visa, then that does get them in the system. What I then would like to see is employers being forced to pay illegals just like everyone else. I mean the reporting. The wages. The payroll taxes, etc. etc.

cane_loader on November 4, 2011 at 11:27 AM

They are already required to have a work visa. They are illegal because they don’t obey that requirement.

Let’s not start using libtard logic here like saying it is illegal to arrest an illegal.

I don’t put much faith in polls but, seriously, Mittens only ties? Why?

Fallon on November 4, 2011 at 9:58 AM

Good question. Romney’s been under the radar for pretty much the past 3 years, no sliming operations at all…the economy is in the crapper and all Superman can do is tie Obama? Wait until Romney becomes the target of the Slime Machine.