Monday, 22 February 2016

Why the European Union will benefit from Brexit

The discussions about Brexit have centered around the question
of whether it is in the national interest of the United Kingdom to remain in
the EU or to leave it. It appears today that the British public is split about
this question, so that the outcome of the referendum remains highly uncertain.

The question of whether it is in the interest of the EU that
the UK remains a member of the union has been discussed much less intensely.
The conventional wisdom in Brussels is that the answer to that question is
positive.The UK should remain a member
of the EU. A Brexit would be very harmful for the future of the European Union.
But is that so?

There is a deep-seated hostility of the British media and
large parts of the political elite against the European Union. This hostility
has found its political expression in the Brexit movement. The proponents of
Brexit cannot accept that the UK has lost sovereignty in many areas in which
the EU has competences. They abhor the fact that Britain has to accept
decisions taken in Brussels, even if it has opposed these. For the Brexit-camp
there is only one ultimate objective: to return full sovereignty to
Westminster.

Those who believe that a referendum will finally settle the
issue have it wrong. Let us suppose that the Brexit-camp is defeated and the UK
remains in the EU. That will not stop the hostility of those who have lost the
referendum. It will not reduce their ambition to bring back full sovereignty to
the United Kingdom.

Having found out that they cannot leave the EU, the
Brexit-camp will shift its strategy to
achieve the objective of returning power to Westminster.It will be a Trojan horse strategy. This will
imply working from within to undermine the union. It will be a strategy aiming
at shrinking the area of decision making with majority rule and replacing it
with an intergovernmental approach. The
purpose of the British enemies of the EU will be a slow deconstruction of the
union so as to achieve the objective of returning power to Westminster.

One may argue that having lost the referendum, the Brexit-camp
will lose influence. That is far from certain. The agreement achieved by
Cameron with the rest of the EU has not transferred a shred of sovereignty back
to Westminster. This will be seen by the Brexit-camp as a huge failure, leading
them to intensify their deconstruction strategy.

Iconclude that it is
not in the interest of the EU to keep a country in the union that will continue
to be hostile to “l’acquis communautaire” and that will follow a strategy to
further undermine it.

I therefore also conclude that it will be better for the
European Union that the Brexit-camp wins the referendum. When Britain is kept
out of the EU it will no longer be able to undermine the EU’s cohesion. The EU
will come out stronger.

Britain will be weakened and will have to knock
at the door of the EU to start negotiating a trade agreement. In the process it
will have lost its bargaining chips. The EU will be able to impose a trade deal
that will not be much different from what the UK has today as a member of the
EU. At the same time it will have reduced the power of a country whose ambition
it is to undermine the cohesion of the union.

62 comments:

Agree. The best situation for the EU as well as the UK would be for the UK to be a leading and loyal nation to improve and enhance the EU politically, economically ans socially. Failing that,the EU is better off without the UK.

Please wake-up, the UK had never a pro EU agenda. The EU was a replacement for their lost colonies/markets. The UK needed a fresh and easy to get market to sell their goods (which goods actually). Currently they can easily sell their financial services to the rest of the EU. The political part of the EU is not in UK's interest.

I can't agree with this view, it seems to me too superficial.You're not considering that if the "stay" party wins then Cameron wins and he likely will purge his cabinet from any "leave" leader and campaigner. This means no trojan horses in Brussels undermining EU from within, just Cameron.

Furthermore UK is not just interested in the trade component of EU. This because is the second economy in Europe so it will still relevant partner for the EU countries (bare in mind that UK has a negative import/export balance). UK is not looking for anything different in the trade with EU, even after a potential exit.

However the "leave" party is looking for more power for Westminster in matter like immigration (who and how many can enter the border), hands free when discussing agreements with non-EU countries (the trade that counts: India, China, HK, Saudi Arabia, ...) and protecting domestic economy.

You forget the EU view in your answer. Who says the EU will maintain trading with the UK with the same volume on the same conditions after the UK left the EU. I think that the UK will be a poor island on the edge of the EU. Remember that non-EU countries mostly only trade with the UK because it's a EU memeber and that benefit is lost after a Brexit.

As an Englishman who lives and works in Europe (Portugal) I can honestly say I have never been so ashamed of my country. As this commentator makes clear, the Brexit campaign is led by political and financial elites who simply want to enrich themselves in an 'off-shore' UK unrestrained by EU regulation. To achieve this they are creating a climate of prejudice and fear, and holding up the mirage of a Britain with its prestige in the world restored. The plain truth is that almost half of the UK's infrastructure (energy, transport, water) is owned by EU-based enterprises (French, German, Dutch and Spanish).

If the 'Leave' vote does win, I would not blame the EU for sighing with relief, washing its hands of the UK, and getting on with its real business.

,,Interesting'' future perspective for Britain: UK out, then Scotland independent AND back in the EU with the Euro. Stays: some poor Midland areas around London being proud to be independent. Brexit: Hadrian's Wall new Schengen border for New England.

And who says that the UK will be bothered if the EU decides not to trade with them? Countries will be lining up to fill the gap left by the EU's discontuation of trade, currently the UK imports are worth well in excess of €1.4billion per WEEK - a loss that would send shockwaves through the EU economy. Remember three facts: (1) The EU is the UK's biggest trading partner ONLY because the EU controls Britain's trade with the rest of the world. (2) The EU is the world's biggest economy, but ONLY when you include the UK economy. (3) The EU/UK trade figures that are most commonly regurgitated always look pleasing, UNTIL the import/export figures are scrutinised.

I really enjoy you posts but do not agree with your view in this instance. Britain is already at the sides of the integration effort and I do not think that Britain membership does undermine the EU - in fact I think the EU does it quite well on its own on that count. The faultline these days is between people who want a full fiscal union to 'finish' the design of the Euro and those who do not want it. I fear the answer (like in the membership of Turkey and many other decisions) will be to park it for another 30-50 years. I would much rather have a two tier Europe with the countries willing to achieve fiscal integration inside ant the rest outside (including the UK).

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