Peak oil in the media - Nov 27

The Age of Petroleum draws to a close (Audio and text)Dheera Sujan, Radio Netherlands If oil is the planet's drug, then cold turkey time is coming up way faster than we think. The moment of 'peak oil' - the moment when the maximum global petroleum production has been reached - could be just a few years away according to some estimates. Yet by 2030 the world is projected to need nearly double the quantity we are using now.

The previous thinking said that Saudi Arabia had enough reserves to take care of our future needs but that line has been all but squashed now. The Saudi oil fields have seen their best days and though their reserves are still vast, the idea that they could almost double their output in the next 20 years is simply not feasible.

There is actually not that much easily accessible oil available in the world, and the places where the oil does flow are increasingly going to be the venues where the superpowers will be circling, poised to fight for control.

Oil and blood have always gone together hand in hand - and nowhere more so than the Middle East according to Professor Michael Klare, author of the book Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum. He was recently in Amsterdam for a lecture for the Society for International Development. Mr Klare says:

"Whoever controls the Persian Gulf controls the economic power of the world."

He calls the Bay of Hormuz in the Gulf, which sees the transport of 40 percent of the world's oil, as a strategic prize because it's 'the spigot' to the world's oil.

"And the United States won't let anyone else control the spigot."

According to Professor Klare, it is not so much about having the oil for domestic use, as much as having the control of who gets to have the oil.

That's why Jimmy Carter already declared 30 years ago that the region was a priority American strategic interest and that any move by a hostile power to gain control of the Persian Gulf area would be regarded "as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America". This policy known as the Carter Doctrine has governed US strategy in the Gulf since.

Michael Klare warns that The Age of Petroleum is drawing to a close and yet the newly emerging economic giants such as China, India and Brazil are increasing car production, building new highways and their fuel consumption is skyrocketing.

But is it fair for the wealthy West to ask the developing world to slow down its oil consumption? After all, it is still the United States, and Europe who are still by far the largest oil consumers and the worst offenders in terms of carbon emissions.

Michael Klare doesn't disagree that the people of the developing nations are also allowed the comforts and luxuries we in the West enjoy, but he urges a different kind of development. He advises not to follow the American model of the huge house, several cars, and so on. Perhaps, he says, the Dutch model would be better: railway networks, bicycles and smaller cars. (22 November 2007)Petroleo at The Oil Drum reports on an article in De Telegraaf which mentions peak oil.

Oil Production Forecasts on NPR (with Matt Simmons)Diane Rehm Show, WAMU, National Public Radio (NPR) Some industry experts are forecasting global oil production to plateau by 2012. We'll talk about oil supply and demand forecasts and their implications for both global security and climate change.

Guests

Matt Simmons, chair, Simmons & Co International, a specialized energy investment banking firm and author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy"

Mike Toman, director, environment, energy, and economic development program at the RAND Corporation (26 November 2007) Contributor Greg Thornwall writes: Link to the audio :wamu.org/audio/dr/07/11/r1071126-18055.asx

In July 2006, the world's oil rigs pumped out crude at a rate of nearly 85.5 million bbl. a day. They haven't come close since, even as prices have risen from $75 to $98 per bbl. Which raises a question of potentially epochal significance: Is it all downhill from here?

It's not as if nobody predicted this. The true believers in what's called peak oil--a motley crew of survivalists, despisers of capitalism, a few billionaire investors and a lot of perfectly respectable geologists--have long cited the middle to end of this decade as a likely turning point.

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