MLB rumors: Jon Lester pursuit makes sense for Braves

Baseball's offseason rumor mill is often more about churning out quantity than quality, so we’ll try our best to help you figure out which rumors dabble in reality.

Monday’s trade of Jason Heyward could have been the signal that the Braves were ready for a rebuilding project, pointing toward the opening of their new suburban ballpark in 2017. Less than 24 hours later, signs emerged that rather than rebuild, Atlanta might be looking to reload.

The rationale: The Braves’ current top starter is Julio Teheran, who had a 2.89 ERA this year with 186 strikeouts in 221 innings. Teheran’s FIP was 3.49, suggesting that he outperformed how he pitched, but the right-hander also does not turn 24 until January, and is signed through 2019 on very team-friendly terms. Teheran’s salary does not crack eight figures until it’s $11 million in the final year, with a $12 million option for 2020.

With Shelby Miller, acquired in the Heyward trade, along with Mike Minor and Alex Wood, the Braves have a solid group of young starters even before returns from Tommy John surgery by Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen.

Lester, who turns 31 in January, would fit the Braves brilliantly as a staff leader and workhorse to not only provide ace-level work, but handle the kind of innings load that would refresh Atlanta’s bullpen every fifth day, given the limitations of the rest of the rotation from youth and health. Lester has thrown at least 200 innings in all but one season since 2008, the exception being when he fell 8 1/3 innings short of the mark in 2011.

The reality: Focusing on a top-flight starting pitcher in free agency would seem to be counterintuitive when the Braves finished 2014 second to last in the major leagues in runs scored, but creating pitching depth would help allow offensive concerns to be addressed on the trade market, where there might be better options. With only the Upton brothers, B.J. and Justin, slated to make more than $10 million for the 2015 Braves, there is payroll flexibility. B.J. Upton’s disastrous contract runs through 2017, while Justin is eligible for free agency next winter. Freddie Freeman’s salary jumps from $8.5 million in 2015 to $12 million in 2016, then $20.5 million in 2017, while closer Craig Kimbrel makes $9 million in 2015, $11 million in 2016, and $13 million in 2017.

The Braves, for as bad as they were offensively in 2014, were outscored by only 24 runs for the season. Adding Lester, banking on young pitchers to keep making progress, and getting some kind of contribution from Beachy and Medlen, getting enough offense to return to contention might not be the tallest order. Heyward’s OPS+ this year was 108, as a significant portion of his value came from his defensive play in right field