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(CBS) Despite meteorological evidence to the contrary, spring is approaching. For the statistically-inclined baseball fan, one of the first signs is when the tender shoots of Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projections are announced, a first glance on how well teams are expected to perform in 2014.

BP projects the Sox with a 75-87 record, fourth in the AL Central behind Detroit (88-74), Cleveland (79-83) and Kansas City (79-83) but ahead of Minnesota (71-91). While this isn’t the record fans are hoping for, it would represent a 12-game improvement over 2013 (63-99). BP predicts a World Series between Boston or Tampa (both 89-73) and their prohibitive favorite to win the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, a full 10 games better than any other team).

Any team prediction is the sum of its parts, and these are the PECOTA projections for Sox position players:

Pos

Player

PA

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

WARP

C

Flowers

407

15

49

.214

.314

.389

1.2

1B

Abreu

268

12

38

.262

.326

.464

1.0

2B

Beckham

548

11

51

.249

.310

.374

1.5

3B

Davidson

393

14

47

.230

.295

.394

0.2

SS

Ramirez

593

10

57

.264

.301

.365

2.0

LF

Viciedo

447

20

73

.261

.305

.427

1.0

CF

Eaton

529

7

44

.272

.349

.378

1.6

RF

A. Garcia

560

15

64

.268

.295

.400

0.4

DH

Dunn

469

30

87

.214

.328

.424

1.1

C

Phegley

196

5

22

.245

.281

.384

0.3

IF

Keppinger

150

4

27

.270

.314

.360

0.5

IF

Konerko

285

15

67

.269

.344

.440

0.9

IF

Gillaspie

108

3

12

.244

.307

.381

0.1

IF

Semien

94

2

10

.241

.316

.386

0.3

OF

de Aza

227

6

31

.270

.331

.399

1.6

OF

Tekotte

95

2

9

.217

.283

.349

-0.1

OF

Danks

130

3

14

.242

.322

.381

0.2

The plate appearances projected for Jose Abreu are confounding. He wasn’t signed for $68 million over six years to be gently eased into playing. I tweeted Harry Pavlidis, Baseball’s Prospectus’ director of technology, who replied:

@ScottLindholm It may be revised upwards, Tim Collins is leading that up and I think the rule of thumb is conservative PT for newbies.

It’s difficult to project how well a player from Cuba will adapt — it can be seamless like Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes or it can fizzle completely like Juan Miranda (Who? That’s my point). Absent a total disaster, Abreu will be the Sox first baseman for 2014. Scaling his production to 600 plate appearances could generate 25-30 home runs, 80-90 RBIs and 2-3 points of WARP, and if he can deliver numbers like that he’ll be worth every penny of his contract.

These are the White Sox pitchers’ projections:

Pos

Pitcher

IP

W

L

Sv

ERA

WHIP

WARP

SP

Sale

202

13

13

3.03

1.13

4.4

SP

Quintana

177

10

14

3.95

1.30

1.8

SP

Danks

148

8

12

4.06

1.30

1.3

SP

Rienzo

148

8

13

4.51

1.46

0.5

SP

Paulino

122

6

12

4.77

1.49

0.1

CL

Jones

68

3

2

26

4.40

1.47

0.1

Axelrod

46

2

4

4.82

1.43

0.0

Johnson

96

5

7

4.08

1.34

0.9

Belisario

57

3

2

3.69

1.3

0.6

Lindstrom

68

3

2

4.15

1.39

0.3

Downs

57

3

2

3.66

1.31

0.6

Veal

63

3

2

4.25

1.46

0.2

Petricka

57

2

1

5.47

1.68

-0.7

Heath

47

2

1

4.68

1.49

-0.1

Leesman

31

1

5.46

1.64

-0.4

Webb

42

2

1

5.2

1.57

-0.4

Beck

16

1

5.62

1.64

-0.2

The best pitchers in baseball like Clayton Kershaw or Justin Verlander have projected records of 16-11 and 16-9, respectively — it’s virtually impossible to predict outlier years. At the beginning of 2013, no one said, “I see Max Scherzer going 21-3″ because in the history of baseball only three pitchers have ever had more wins with only three losses. Projections work on what has been seen with educated guesses as to what might occur next, taking numerous factors into account. The projections for the starters are best attempts to reconcile a team record with pitcher performance and will show the most variability of all.

Other useful PECOTA projections regard the likelihood players will produce better or worse than expected. They use four categories:

Breakout — production will increase by 20 percent or more over recent production.Improve — any improvement, and if the player is expected to stay the same, the number is 50Collapse — production will decline by 25 percent or more over recent productionAttrition — playing time will decrease by 50 percent or more compared to recent production

These are the values for the Sox position players:

Player

Breakout

Improve

Collapse

Attrition

Beckham

1

57

5

8

Viciedo

1

56

0

9

Abreu

4

51

8

13

Ramirez

1

38

6

8

Eaton

6

37

7

39

de Aza

2

34

6

11

Gillaspie

5

33

10

18

Garcia

4

32

6

19

Keppinger

2

30

8

15

Danks

8

29

11

25

Flowers

3

26

14

35

Dunn

0

23

6

17

Semien

3

23

4

18

Davidson

0

18

2

12

Tekotte

2

15

8

16

Phegley

2

12

20

22

Konerko

0

11

13

16

To explain the numbers, the MLB player with the highest value under Breakout is the Twins’ Pedro Florimon, with an 18 percent chance of exceeding the criteria for Breakout, lending hope for Jordan Danks and Adam Eaton. Likewise, only around 60 or so players have an Improve over 50, suggesting Beckham and Viciedo can perform as they have — take that as you will. Josh Phegley‘s chances of collapsing are uncomfortably high. Beyond that, a Sox lineup that has remained similar to previous years is reasonably expected to perform as in recent years.

This chart shows the same information for the pitchers:

Player

Breakout

Improve

Collapse

Attrition

Quintana

32

60

16

10

Johnson

28

54

16

31

Sale

21

51

20

12

Danks

28

47

17

8

Axelrod

21

44

13

31

Belisario

24

43

27

20

Paulino

21

39

19

18

Jones

25

37

16

24

Downs

21

35

21

8

Rienzo

22

33

20

41

Petricka

17

29

8

27

Lindstrom

14

27

35

12

Heath

8

15

8

14

Leesman

12

15

5

12

Webb

11

14

5

12

Veal

5

9

20

19

There is more variability with pitchers, as they have greater potential for breakout seasons and collapses. The projections suggest Chris Sale will continue to to be one of the best pitchers in the American League, and Jose Quintana and John Danks could join him to provide a solid foundation at the top of the rotation. If this occurs, the Sox will have a chance to be competitive.

The only guarantee is these projections will be wrong for just about every player — some will be overvalued, others shortchanged. Abreu is as close to a blank slate as the White Sox have had in some time — he could hit the cover off the ball from Day 1 and put up a 50-homore, 125-RBI season, but to predict that one might as well pencil in Sale for 27 wins and Nate Jones for 65 saves. The PECOTA projections are simply good faith estimates of what can be expected, and they’ve projected nothing that doesn’t fall within reasonable expectations of what the White Sox might accomplish this year.

The determining factor for the White Sox will be their ability to rebound from a difficult 2013. The BP projections suggest this might be difficult as the combination of an aging lineup, few stars and little immediate help from their farm system point to another challenging year. Take the projections for what they are, very educated guesses for 2014 performances.

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