This. To get a nomination you need a ton of number ones on the ballot which means your film needs passionate supporters. It’s the reason I’m not completely counting out Joker or Jojo from certain categories.

I think Ad Astra is going to struggle above the line. You hit it on the head here- only if it delivers at the box office. Unfortunately, I think Ad Astra is gonna flop. James Gray is far from a household name, the movie is going to alienate its audiences, and the space epic genre is getting tired. The trailer played to muted silence/interest in…[Read more]

Jojo still has a better shot at getting into picture than A Hidden Life. Malick needs overwhelming critical support to make waves, audiences will find his movies boring or confusing and it’ll leave them cold.

I don’t think Downton is going anywhere. It’s old news and people who don’t like or know the show aren’t going to go for it. Movies like this (extended finale esque episode, characters reuniting, faithful to the show) don’t get nominated, even if the show was beloved in its heyday.

Oscar wise I think it’s firmly at 0 wins but has a chance for…[Read more]

Just a thought: SAG doesn’t just like big ensembles- they recently have been embracing very diverse ensembles. It makes sense to me the actors branch is trying to be more inclusive especially after the controversy a few years ago. It’s also quite possible they are just the most progressive major guild.

1. Parasite- hype is incredibly strong, might be undeniable
2. Waves- a small movie over performing is big for their voting system
3. Marriage Story- the big prestige presumed front runner always makes it
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4. Ford v. Ferrari- everyone likes it but it’s score won’t be high enough is my guess
5. Knives Out- same as Waves but more comme…[Read more]

At the moment I still think DiCaprio is making it in but just barely. Being in a movie nominated for best picture is a huge advantage and the category is not going to fill up with Murphy, Banderas, Jordan, Rhys, DeNiro, Pattinson, Pryce, and Brown all before DiCaprio. As of now, only Driver is in a movie more likely to get into best picture.

I haven’t read much about the movie itself (on purpose), but I wonder if it’s weird/alienating to commercial audiences. The critics are obviously over the moon about it, but I wonder if Parasite is entertaining. If it is, I don’t see why it can’t win TIFF audience. Roma got third last year despite not being conventionally entertaining.

I’m not saying Jojo is going to make a ton of money or that it will have Oscar success. I think it is smart to hedge and lower it in your predictions. I am just saying I think it’s premature to discount the movie because of a few mixed reactions when a ton of people are gushing over it. Passion is huge and people will support a film they lov…[Read more]

God, Metacritic is so pretentious. It seems like the large majority of people enjoyed this. Those raves mean something even if a small number of critics are going to hate on it for its subject matter. At least there’s passion for this. Still very excited to see it.