Friday, October 17, 2008

Profile Of A Winner - Part 4

Here is an actual race profile for you to sample.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

#1 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races. This factor is geared towards identifying the fillies who are fast enough to beat the field. Beyer pars from past runnings are not used because the fillies lined up do not need to win any past renewals, they simply have to beat the horses they’re facing today. So every BSF achieved in a winning performance in a dirt route by a member of the field is added together and averaged.

11 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing was the only winner who was deemed “not fast enough”. The Average BSF in her running was 84 and her career high was 82. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 39-1-1-2.

#2 - The entrant must have been within one length of the lead at the 1/8 pole in one of their last two races. This factor is geared towards identifying speed but not as defined by the numbers. Tactical speed is as important as speed figures. Synthetics may call this factor into question with supposed biases towards late closers but we’ll see.

All 12 of the last winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 25-0-1-2.

#3 - The entrants career average Beyer Speed Figure must be equal to or greater than the fields average Beyer Speed Figure achieved in all stakes races. The factor may sound complicated but it’s actually straightforward. Take every stakes performance, win or lose, by each horse in the race and combine it into an average. Then compare that figure to each entrants career BSF average. It’s another way of measuring speed and weeding out horses who may have just earned one big figure.

10 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing and Cash Run did not achieve a career average BSF that was better than the stakes average. Caressing had an average of 80.50 in a race that required 82.40. Cash Run was no where near with an average of 71, well below the required mark of 83.10. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 67-2-5-5.

#4 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races in their last prep race. This factor is similar to factor #1 but it demands that the entrant not only prove to be fast enough in their career but also in their last race. Therefore the focus is more on form rather than speed. Most Juvenile filly winners enter the race off a new career high.

10 of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing and Cash Run did not run fast enough in their final prep race to qualify. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 67-2-5-6.

#5 - The entrant must have finished in the money in their last start. This factor aims to isolate those with good current form. A sharp race last time out is often the best indicator of current form.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 21-0-1-1.

#6 - The entrant must have won at least one of their last three starts. Winning races is a big part of judging current form. You don’t want to be betting on the nose of a horse that has already clearly established a pattern of losing races.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 16-0-0-0.

#7 - The entrant must have run in the money in all their starts at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. In that case those who did not run in an 8f race must be in the money in all sprints. Experience at the distance is no good if it was a bad experience. We want our qualifiers to run well when stretching out. The reason Belmont gets an exception is because it's a one turn race and historically the winners there in both juvenile races have needed less preparation around two turns.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 28-0-1-1.

#8 – The entrant cannot have finished in the money in a dirt prep race where the top three finishers are separated by less than one length. This applies only to the horses last prep race. Blanket finishes were often signal weak races. We want all the stars aligned form wise. Horses who ran in tight blanket finishes on dirt in their last prep are 2 for 42 in the Breeders Cup. With the way pace often sets up in synthetic races this factor would not apply, just as it doesn’t apply for Turf races.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 12-0-1-2.

#9 - The entrant must have won at least one race in their career. The Breeders Cup is not the place to be breaking your maiden. Although very few maidens enter the Breeders Cup I want to keep this factor in order to make sure that as little support for maidens is given as possible.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 3-0-0-0.

#10 - The entrant must have started lower than 10/1 in their last race. Quality is often reflected on the tote board. Horses that are long odds in the preps usually have to run above themselves to convince their connections that they belong in the Breeders Cup. However regression after a career top is quite common. This is an attempt to identify horses that are susceptible to regression. Or to identify the horses that simply have no chance at all.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 23-0-0-1.

#11 - The entrant must have made at least one start at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. Basically we want to see solid route experience from fillies that are trying to win a championship race around two turns. We do not demand route experience for Breeders Cup’s at Belmont because the race is run around a single turn and I think it’s a totally different dynamic. The last 4 winners of BC races for Juveniles at Belmont were won by horses that had never contested a route race.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 13-0-2-1.

#12 – The entrant must have raced at two tracks minimum, unless all their career races have come at the BC host track. We seem to get the “Calder Flash” sensations every year and generally they under perform. Running at several tracks is not only good experience but often means they’re facing a different pool of competition which is a more accurate gauge of their true prowess.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 14-0-0-2.

#13 - The entrant must have won a race at 6 furlongs or more.

All of the last 12 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 18-0-0-0.

There have been 31 “perfect” qualifiers from the last 12 runnings for an average of 2.5 per year. During those 12 runnings, 139 entrants started in the Juvenile Fillies. So the profile qualifiers have an impact value of 3.79. Meaning that they win the Juvenile Fillies almost 4 times more often than their statistical probability.

A flat $2 win bet on each qualifier would have cost $62 and the total returned from those wagers would be $76.70. A tidy $14.70 profit or 23.71% return on investment. A win bet on each entrant based on their 20-20 score would have cost $1,095 with $1,136.05 returned. That’s a $41.05 profit or 3.75%. Not bad for a race that has mostly been won by favorites recently.

Other statistical trends worth noting:

The Juvenile Fillies has been won 18 times by horses who won their last prep race over its entire history. Conversely it has been won by horses who lost their last prep race 6 times. No edge can be found by automatically playing either the winners or losers.

Fillies entering this race with the Highest last Beyer Speed Figure have won 6 of the last 12 runnings. Much more than any other Breeders Cup race.

10 of the last 12 winners of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies contested a race at either Saratoga or Del Mar. The trend is similarly strong with the Juvenile suggesting that the best 2yo’s in the nation do indeed run at those boutique meets.

For a look at how all the profiles have worked since 1996 you can view this spreadsheet.