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Andrew Weaver is recognized on the international stage as a climate-change scientist.

But in the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, he says he’s also known as a soccer coach, an active parent and science educator in the school system, and now as a University of Victoria academic who is ready to test the political climate.

“I have been asked (to run) over the years by people from virtually every party provincially and federally,” he says. “I’ve said no because I thought my role was to be a scientist ... and that my role would be most influential in terms of advising policy, and I’ve done that.”

What caused him to change his mind, he said, is frustration provincially over the collapse of “dignified collaborative discourse” and a trend nationally to not make decisions based on evidence.

He is opposed to the Liberals’ rush to sell as much liquefied natural gas to export markets such as China, arguing that the economics will change by the time the plants are built and that B.C. should instead concentrate on developing clean technology.

As a Green party candidate, Weaver feels he can be an independent rational voice in the B.C. legislature, unfettered by party lines or mired in the polarized politics of the Liberals and NDP.

University of Victoria political scientist Jamie Lawson said the riding is “so hard to call” that he won’t even hazard a prediction.

He noted that Elizabeth May’s solid victory in 2011 in the nearby federal riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands has raised the Green party’s profile.

And while the Greens are often viewed as left of centre, he sees the party attracting some right-of-centre votes. “Caring for your surroundings and making them sustainable is not particularly radical or revolutionary, it’s all about permanence.”

During a federal byelection in Victoria on Nov. 26, 2012, Murray Rankin scored 37.2 per cent of the vote to retain the riding for the NDP. The Greens’ Donald Galloway, the only serious contender, lost by only 1,118 votes and took 34.3 per cent of the vote.

Liberal MLA Ida Chong, Minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation, has represented Oak Bay-Gordon Head for the Liberals since 1996. In 2009, she squeaked out a victory over the NDP’s Jessica Van der Veen by 561 votes. The Green party scored just nine per cent of the vote.

Weaver discounts any suggestion he is splitting the vote. “The Liberals are not a factor,” he insisted. “It is not a three-way race.”

Van der Veen says she is not taking anything for granted despite the Liberal party’s poor showing in public opinion polls. She sees Chong as her main opponent, while noting that the Greens have the potential to steal voters from the other two parties.

“Ida Chong has a very strong base,” she said. “Coming so close last time, especially when public opinion (against the Liberals) had already swung on the south island, I know I have a formidable opponent.”

Over the years, Van der Veen has taken a strong stand against the sale of public assets, be it public schools or a provincial plan to sell off Oak Bay Lodge and Mount Tolmie Hospital. “Keeping ‘seniors health’ rooted in our community was a big priority for me,” she said.

Seniors represented 21 per cent of the riding, compared with a B.C. average of 14 per cent, according to the 2006 census.

In its February budget, Victoria also announced plans to sell more than $800 million in assets to balance the budget. “Selling assets for short-term cash flow so that you can pretend you have a balanced budget, that’s not a business model I could ever accept,” says Van der Veen, who has a master’s degree in public administration, specializing in governance and accountability.

For Chong, even in victory during the last election, things didn’t get easier.

She successfully fought a recall campaign in early 2011 spurred by public discontent over the harmonized sales tax. Canvassers were only able to gather 8,818 of the required 15,368 signatures.

Chong credits an educated electorate in her riding for rejecting the recall bid and, later, bucking the trend on Vancouver Island and voting to keep the HST in a provincial referendum later in 2011. “They took the time to understand and learn.”

This time around, Chong says it’s a three-way race that should be decided by no more than a few hundred votes.

She is campaigning on her lifelong commitment to the riding, where she grew up and went to school. “People know I care about the community and know I get results,” she said, pointing to approvals to replace Oak Bay high school.

Chong described Weaver as “someone who likes to lecture around the world” and may be less excited about addressing seemingly minor local issues, and said Van der Veen’s single-minded opposition to the sale of public assets ignores common sense.

Chong said she supports construction of a newer, better-equipped facility within close driving distance of her constituency, noting that Oak Bay Lodge began as a hotel, not a health care facility. “Do you keep a building open ... that is clearly outdated and not providing the services residents need and would actually do more harm than not?” she asked.

Conservative candidate Greg Kazakoff is a consulting chartered accountant who has served as director of finance for the Ministry of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation. He has lived in the riding since 2004.

Kazakoff believes he can draw from a wide range of voters — from university students to well-to-do seniors — because the Conservatives represent the only right-of-centre option to the Liberals.

“I was so disgusted with the way the Liberals were doing things, I felt I had to step forward and provide an alternative,” he said.

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