摘要:多屬性決策分析(multiple attribute decision-making analysis)問題常見於管理領域。這是由於判斷方案(alternatives)的標準(criteria)其屬性(attribute)的不同而造成。因此在進行決策分析時，導致每個方案的成效值 (performance rating) 並無法很精確的加以評估，因為其中可能會牽涉到人類行為的主觀性與不確定性。本計劃以證據推論(evidential reasoning)方法為基礎，建立一個多屬性決策分析模型。這是因為證據推論方法與其他多屬性決策分析方法最大的不同在於：其具有將不同屬性的主客觀的質化及量化的資訊與資料置於一屬性相同的平台架構下進行分析的能力。除此之外，在證據推論方法架構下，當有多位決策者進行決策分析時，由於每一位決策者對於每一個評估等級(evaluation grade)的理解不盡相同，而可能造成每一位決策者分析出來的風險控制方案執行優先順序不ㄧ致。而且當每一個風險控制方案其評估等級及伴隨的信賴度(belief degree)很接近時，這種現象將會更加明顯。本計劃旨在建立一套新的決策分析模型以解決評估準則的多屬性決策問題，且在多位決策者進行分析時，仍能提供信賴的結果，以增加該方法在決策分析領域的實用性。藉由以信賴度為基礎為每一專家學者建立一評估等級與效度矩陣(utility category-evaluation grade matrix)，且結合所有專家學者之專業意見，經港口安全決策分析之案例驗證後，本計劃所建構之方法論可改善上述之缺失，而能提供更為合理之決策分析結果。Abstract:When evaluating Risk Control Options (RCOs), difficulties may be encountered due to the attribute nature of the defined criteria. In this study a decision-making model using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is proposed provided that RCOs have been identified. It is the technique aimed at solving Multiple Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) problems. This is because of its capability of consistently modelling precise data and subjective judgement with uncertainty under a unified framework. A problem occurs in circumstances where a decision-making project is evaluated by multiple experts and various utility appreciations arising from each expert exists when assessing each evaluation grade. This could result in an RCO or general attribute ranking order conflict between the experts. Such a conflict would become obvious if the evaluation grades and belief degrees obtained for each alternative or general attribute were close. The framework proposed in this study is capable of solving such a difficulty. This is accomplished by constructing a utility category-evaluation grade matrix for each expert using the belief degree method and synthesising the utility levels contained in the matrices estimated by all experts using the ER approach. The framework is demonstrated by a test case which considers the effects of the security, safety and human error reduction measures in ports. The analysis will be performed in terms of five criteria, namely, effectiveness, cost, time of deployment, resource availability and co-operation level.