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The Ravens did not dominate in the box score but they did emerge with the
largest margin of victory in the wild card round. John Harbaugh and his team
have won at least one playoff game in five straight seasons but they have not
made a Super Bowl. Baltimore is coming off high emotion last week with Ray
Lewis in his last home game and the Ravens also face a difficult Sunday-to-
Saturday short week, with teams in that situation going 1-4 S/U and ATS the last
three years in the divisional round. Statistically the Broncos look like one of the
NFL’s best teams and the Broncos are riding an 11-game win streak. Peyton
Manning had a MVP-type season and while he gets flak for his playoff history his
career record is 9-10 including 6-4 in home games though this is the first time
around in Denver. The Broncos went just 2-3 against playoff teams this season,
going 6-0 against a very weak AFC West but the Broncos soundly won in
Baltimore in mid-December. Denver had an interception return touchdown early
in that game and a huge edge on the ground in a 34-17 win that was not even
that close as the Ravens scored both touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Historically
the Broncos have struggled in the home favorite role but Denver has been able
to shake some of those negative trends this season though the Ravens are a
playoff tested underdog. Joe Flacco completed just 12 passes last week as he
has not been sharp down the stretch with the Ravens battling through a very
difficult late season schedule. The Ravens have been a suspect performer all
season despite a strong record and the short week appears to be a big
disadvantage at this stage. Both teams were solid ‘over’ teams on the year and
neither defense is likely as good as most have perceived. The ‘over’ was 10-5-1
in Denver games and 9-7 in Ravens games. BRONCOS BY 13
RATING 2: Denver (-) over Baltimore
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ Baltimore at Denver

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) Green Bay (45) 7:00 PM

Statistically San Francisco has been the best team in the NFL in terms of yards-
per-play differential. San Francisco did not have as dominant of a regular season
however, in part to having a lesser turnover differential. Some of that may be in
part due to the radical move to shift to second year quarterback Colin
Kaepernick, who started the final seven games of the season. With his size, arm
strength, and mobility Kaepernick has a very high ceiling but he also completed
less than 58 percent of his passes in his final three regular season games. He
only threw three interceptions in 218 attempts however as this is still a 49ers
offense that takes great care of the ball. Special teams woes were an issue for
the 49ers in the playoffs last season and again have been an area of concern
down the stretch as well but the 49ers do possess an incredibly physical defense
that had some of the best performances of the season. Green Bay won with
relative ease last week as the rematch with the Vikings lost some luster with
Christian Ponder being a late scratch. Questionable play-calling from the Vikings
likely prevented a much closer game but the Green Bay offense was very
efficient. The Packers have some of the worst rushing numbers in the NFL on
both sides of the ball but the Green Bay defense had very solid late season
numbers, contrary to last season. The Packers have allowed 20 or fewer points
in nine of the last 11 games and with the Green Bay offense back at full strength
that generally is more than enough to win with. These teams opened the season
in a highly anticipated game that turned out to be a laugher as San Francisco
won with ease but a lot has changed for both squads since that time. The 49ers
have a great track record under Jim Harbaugh at home but the Packers have
been great performers in the road underdog role as well. Both defenses should
be up for the challenge this week and this could be a lower scoring game as it is
unlikely to come close to the 52 points scored in the opener. PACKERS BY 3
RATING 1: Green Bay (+) over San Francisco
RATING 2: ‘UNDER’ Green Bay at San Francisco

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12, 2013

ATLANTA (-2½) Seattle (45½) 12:00 PM

While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin got far more attention, Russell Wilson is
the only rookie quarterback to come up with a win in the playoffs this year.
Seattle quickly got down 14-0 last week but the Seahawks held their composure
and dominated defensively the rest of the way, though the limitations of an
injured RGIII certainly helped the cause. Seattle still trailed with just over seven
minutes to go in the game as the Seahawks are limited on offense, even with
some of the big numbers posted late in the season. Atlanta finished with the
NFL’s best record but the Falcons also were a negative yards-per-play team,
allowing more yards than they gained despite a great offense. The Falcons have
been haunted by playoff failures, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion
each of the last two years and Matt Ryan is 0-3 in playoff games, throwing more
interceptions than touchdowns in the three games. Ryan and the offense take
some heat for those failures but Atlanta has allowed 102 points in those three
games. While Atlanta did not have the same incentives down the stretch as
other teams the Falcons were out-gained by at least 88 yards in four of the final
five games of the season The big difference between these teams is in the
running game as Seattle gains nearly five yards per rush and posted nearly
twice as many rushing yards on the season compared with the Falcons. Atlanta
has an elite receiving corps but Seattle allowed less than 200 passing yards per
game this season, holding foes to 57 percent completions. This situation is tricky
for the surging Seahawks with a second straight cross country trip and also
playing in the early time slot after playing the late game on Sunday. Atlanta has
been impressive in home wins over Denver, Dallas, New Orleans, and New York
this season and Atlanta is 33-8 S/U at home since 2008 when Ryan joined the
team. Seattle continues to be a dangerous underdog however and the
Seahawks may simply have the superior team. SEAHAWKS BY 3
RATING 1: Seattle (+) over Atlanta

NEW ENGLAND (-9) Houston (48½) 3:30 PM

The Patriots look to become the first Super Bowl loser to return to the big game
since the Bills made four straight defeats in the early ‘90s. New England has
been immune to criticism given the past success but this is a team that is just 24
S/U in the last six playoff games while riding an ugly 1-8 ATS run in the
postseason. Tom Brady has thrown 11 interceptions in his last seven playoff
games and the huge +25 turnover margin this season for the Patriots has hidden
a lot of statistical deficiencies. Houston stumbled with losses in three of the final
four games of the regular season, falling down to the #3 seed but the Texans
were the most dominant team last week, crushing Cincinnati statistically and not
allowing a touchdown on defense. In the regular season New England crushed
Houston in early December 42-14 although the statistics were not that lopsided.
That game came in a third straight road game for Houston and fourth road game
in five weeks for a tough situation. Having played in Foxboro and in cold weather
should help the cause the second time around. Houston’s defense was one of
the best in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 219 yards per game and
holding opposing quarterbacks to only 52 percent completions and Andy Dalton
was held to below 50 percent last week. The spread in the first meeting jumped
from -4½ to -5½ and this is a huge adjustment in the same venue just a month
later. Bye week teams in the playoffs are just 9-15 ATS the last six years as it is
no longer the advantage it used to be and this is a huge spread for a playoff
game. The Patriots scored almost 35 points per game this season, still with the
potential to deliver a dominant performance but this is a much tougher match-up
than New England faced in this round last year and Houston was very
formidable in the playoffs vs. Baltimore last season. PATS BY 4
RATING 2: Houston (+) over New England

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