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Rockfish chronologies were generated by applying standard dendrochronology techniques to otolith growth-increment widths (Black et al. 2011). Seabird egg laying dates and breeding success (offspring pair-1) are from the Farallon Islands, approximately 48 km west of San Francisco Bay (37.7°N, 123.0°W) (Black et al. 2011, Schroeder et al. 2010). The Copepod Community Index is the leading axis of a Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling ordination performed on a matrix of copepod species abundance. Samples were collected 9 km offshore of Newport, Oregon (44.651°N; 124.181°W) on a biweekly to monthly basis beginning in 1996 (Kiester et al. 2011).

Processing Description

A nested bootstrapping approach (n=10,000 iterations) was repeated at each change in sample depth (3 to 16). For each iteration, chronologies were randomly selected with replacement and averaged into a composite chronology. Calendar years shared with CCwinter physical data (1948-2003) were randomly sampled with replacement and the CCwinter reconstruction from tree ring data (CCwinter_recon) was predicted using a rise-to-maximum function: CCwinter_recon = a*(1-exp(-b*oak composite chronology)). The Reduction of Error statistic was calculated between predicted CCwinter and sea level (1898-1947, see timeseries-physical) for independent verification; any positive value indicates reconstruction skill. A 21-year running standard deviation was calculated for the length of each iteration to evaluate trends in variance. The 14 ensemble medians were spliced together to form the final nested reconstruction (tree-ring and CCwinter standard deviation datasets). To examine the frequency of extreme events, CCwinter_recon values in each ensemble member were ranked, the 10 highest values retained, and the frequency per century was calculated post- and pre-1950. Note that an identical result was obtained for the extreme events analysis if the composite chronologies were ranked prior to their transformation by rise-to-maximum functions.

We tested various methods to retain inter-annual to long-term variation in the tree-ring data and found results and conclusions to be insensitive. Detrending with 50-year splines did not appreciably change the results of the study. The unusually high frequency of negative events is less pronounced post-1950, but spline detrending reduces the magnitude of extreme values and mutes or eliminates long-term trends. The two methods (negative exponential and signal free detrending) capable of retaining centennial scale variability yielded nearly identical results for the final reconstruction (R2 = 0.993). [Given the complexity and experimental nature of the signal-free datasets, negative exponential detrending was used for the final reconstruction]