Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Well, folks, I think it's clear the model for prediction did not work.

And to be honest, I am thinking this is an exercise in futility because the BAA accepted 818 fewer qualifiers. Given the BAA can and will decide to accept any variation of 23,000 to 24,000, the prediction can never be close to accurate, even if we built in a whole bunch more feeders and demand predictions.

Over at bqrun.com, he has an even more complicated model with 6 years of data. His last update came up with 48 seconds. Still quite far from 2:09.

2957 applicants where rejected. At 129 seconds of cut off, that is 23 runners per second. With 818 fewer spots than last year, you have about 36 seconds of additional cut off. Apples to applies with entry spots the same year over year, the cut off would have been 1:33. So had they accepted the same number as last year, it would have been around 1:33.

All I can say is thank you for reading, and I'm sorry if I gave you false hope. I'm not sure if I'm gonna do this again for 2018 given the uncertainty with the number of qualifiers the BAA will accept. With the fact that they don't publish the data until the day of the cutoff announcement, makes it really hard to come up with a good number.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

We're at the end of the list of marathons I have in my list of feeders for the analysis. Lehigh Valley and Erie. And they followed the trend of most of the marathons this year. Making this update somewhat anti-climactic.

Lehigh Valley has the notoriety of being the race that had no intermediate mats in 2013, allowing what is the most fascinating story of probable marathon cheating I've seen in my lifetime (not so much the cheating part but the behavior of the accused cheater). After 2013, the race management added several timing mats along the course.

Erie at Presque Isle is a super flat, double loop course on a peninsula that usually has good weather (though can be windy) and a high number of qualifiers.

Lehigh Valley

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

2016 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

29

148

19.59%

35

157

22.29%

F35-39

11

73

15.07%

9

58

15.52%

F40-44

18

67

26.87%

10

68

14.71%

F45-49

9

49

18.37%

9

44

20.45%

F50-54

11

37

29.73%

5

35

14.29%

F55-59

5

17

29.41%

3

20

15.00%

F60-64

1

10

10.00%

1

4

25.00%

F65-69

2

6

33.33%

1

4

25.00%

F70-74

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

F75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

33

137

24.09%

13

171

7.60%

M35-39

19

97

19.59%

4

80

5.00%

M40-44

17

84

20.24%

5

77

6.49%

M45-49

23

78

29.49%

13

91

14.29%

M50-54

10

65

15.38%

13

74

17.57%

M55-59

12

37

32.43%

13

55

23.64%

M60-64

4

23

17.39%

6

21

28.57%

M65-69

2

7

28.57%

4

17

23.53%

M70-74

0

2

0.00%

1

3

33.33%

M75-79

0

1

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

Totals

206

938

21.96%

145

981

14.78%

Big drop: nearly 30% fewer qualifiers.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

18

8.74%

16

11.03%

1-2 minutes

16

7.77%

19

13.10%

2-3 minutes

16

7.77%

10

6.90%

3-4 minutes

17

8.25%

12

8.28%

4-5 minutes

25

12.14%

5

3.45%

5-10 minutes

48

23.30%

38

26.21%

10-20 minutes

42

20.39%

36

24.83%

20> minutes

24

11.65%

9

6.21%

Totals

206

145

My goodness, the Squeaker Pack in this race is huge, both years. 44.66% vs 42.76%. Lots of folks eking in under 2 minutes this year (I'm guessing the weather might have had something to do with it).

Erie Marathon

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

2016 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

55

217

25.35%

56

195

28.72%

F35-39

43

120

35.83%

27

85

31.76%

F40-44

34

133

25.56%

34

106

32.08%

F45-49

44

104

42.31%

33

100

33.00%

F50-54

24

69

34.78%

23

59

38.98%

F55-59

7

28

25.00%

5

26

19.23%

F60-64

6

19

31.58%

7

21

33.33%

F65-69

4

7

57.14%

1

4

25.00%

F70-74

0

2

0.00%

0

3

0.00%

F75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

48

168

28.57%

58

181

32.04%

M35-39

32

123

26.02%

17

100

17.00%

M40-44

28

112

25.00%

16

98

16.33%

M45-49

45

119

37.82%

51

125

40.80%

M50-54

51

117

43.59%

34

119

28.57%

M55-59

36

81

44.44%

25

78

32.05%

M60-64

18

56

32.14%

12

42

28.57%

M65-69

15

31

48.39%

9

31

29.03%

M70-74

3

10

30.00%

2

5

40.00%

M75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

Totals

493

1516

32.52%

410

1379

29.73%

16.84% fewer qualifiers.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

44

8.92%

31

7.56%

1-2 minutes

55

11.16%

27

6.59%

2-3 minutes

63

12.78%

34

8.29%

3-4 minutes

36

7.30%

33

8.05%

4-5 minutes

27

5.48%

24

5.85%

5-10 minutes

113

22.92%

129

31.46%

10-20 minutes

103

20.89%

92

22.44%

20> minutes

52

10.55%

40

9.76%

Totals

493

410

Squeaker Pack: 45.64% vs 36.34%.

These races definitely have a last minute feel just looking at the under 5 minute margins. I also wonder if people decided they didn't need to try to extend their margins and DNS'd as the cut off is looking much better than last year.

Final Totals

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

20156 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

5341

42001

12.72%

4534

40838

11.10%

F35-39

2466

16896

14.60%

2209

17103

12.92%

F40-44

2434

16075

15.14%

2078

15777

13.17%

F45-49

2479

11726

21.14%

2170

12206

17.78%

F50-54

1548

7732

20.02%

1462

8258

17.70%

F55-59

816

3885

21.00%

721

3993

18.06%

F60-64

362

1611

22.47%

366

1730

21.16%

F65-69

109

513

21.25%

119

556

21.40%

F70-74

21

140

15.00%

21

168

12.50%

F75-79

5

30

16.67%

1

22

4.55%

F80+

1

4

25.00%

4

10

40.00%

M18-34

4811

37505

12.83%

3825

35699

10.71%

M35-39

2394

19840

12.07%

1970

19149

10.29%

M40-44

2729

21520

12.68%

2251

20364

11.05%

M45-49

3286

18247

18.01%

2769

18289

15.14%

M50-54

2575

14534

17.72%

2150

14567

14.76%

M55-59

1705

8894

19.17%

1489

9271

16.06%

M60-64

1023

4736

21.60%

964

4875

19.77%

M65-69

465

1974

23.56%

439

2114

20.77%

M70-74

141

655

21.53%

114

658

17.33%

M75-79

25

173

14.45%

30

188

15.96%

M80+

7

39

17.95%

10

43

23.26%

Totals

34743

228730

15.19%

29696

225878

13.15%

14.53% decrease in qualifiers.13.45% decrease in the rate of qualification.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

1955

5.63%

1693

5.70%

1-2 minutes

1957

5.63%

1701

5.73%

2-3 minutes

1971

5.67%

1632

5.50%

3-4 minutes

1773

5.10%

1507

5.07%

4-5 minutes

1667

4.80%

1384

4.66%

5-10 minutes

7327

21.09%

6405

21.57%

10-20 minutes

9685

27.88%

8222

27.69%

20> minutes

8408

24.20%

7152

24.08%

Totals

34743

29696

Squeaker Pack: 26.83% vs 26.66%

Pretty much the same year over year.

Final bit of data: for the 26 races, taking all the finisher for the 2016 qualification window achieving 2:28 or better, we get a total number of 2968929689 > 29696
The total number of 2017 qualifiers regardless of margin, is still less. This implies no cutoff, and anyone achieving their age group standard will be in.

In reality?
Really hard to say. The buffer in this calculation/model is at 173 which is a very small percentage of the whole pie. Easily gobbled up by lightly more demand.

The other interesting theory I've heard is that last year was the 120th running and, therefore, in addition to high qualification numbers, there was higher demand. So the demand of last year might be mucking up the numbers a bit.

My personal feeling is that if you have 1:00 or more, you have a pretty good chance. If you have more than last year's margin, you're almost certainly in (and, boy do I hope that's true because I have only 9 seconds more than last year's cutoff).

Now we* begin the agonizing wait 2+ week wait.

* we is really the "Squeakers" - there is near zero chance it doesn't open up for a second week of registration