Real talk: Wish Nivek or someone would recalculate Craw's 3PT % subtracting his end of the quarter hurls. He usually has at least one.

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AFM wrote:Real talk: Wish Nivek or someone would recalculate Craw's 3PT % subtracting his end of the quarter hurls. He usually has at least one.

This season, Crawford is 51-151 from 3pt range -- .338. He's 2-15 on last-second attempts in a quarter. So, without those attempts, he's shooting .360.

For his career, Crawford is shooting .295 from 3pt range. Eliminate his last-second attempts in a quarter, and his percentage is .306.

Of course, for this to be much more than trivia, we'd need to go through the same procedure with every other player. That's not happening today.

Where did you get that last second data? 17 last second attempts seems a bit high to me relative to his total number of 3-point attempts. I'd be willing to bet that Crawford's 3P% is negatively impacted by last second shots to a greater degree than an average guard.

You gotta at least like that he is willing to take that low percentage shot rather than pretend to shoot one but intentionally wait until the buzzer sounds before releasing the ball.

His improved eff is holding up. The question is, how will it project moving forward now that his role has changed again. If they are going to use him for only 16-17 min a game and most of it is off ball, I think his numbers go down.

If they use him more then that and give him the ball early enough in the game for him to find his rhythm and then move him off ball and mix it up, I think he stay the same or improves.

They also need to allow him to drive enough that he can get to the line. They need to find 24-26 minutes for him. With Beal playing 30-32 a game at SG, that only leaves 16-18 mins. There is the problem. They need to decide on Crawford at PG or Price for those extra 6-8 minutes. Since Price can walk on the floor and play his game at any time as a pure PG, it would work best to limit his minutes some and give them to Crawford. That would get the most out of what you have.

Wall 30, Crawford 6, Price 12Beal 30, Crawford 18

That would work. In games that Wall is out of control like last game, put Price in. He has been running the team well with structure.

PS - I bet Wall starts tonight. They need to get him out there with Nene, Beal, Web and Oak to start the game so he can chill out instead of playing all out of control. Price and Crawford should be able to work it out. Price will defer to him sometimes and play off ball for the 3 which he can do and other times Crawford can do that. That would get him involved more.

I would also consider moving Trevor A to the starting line up to balance things out. Yeah Wall could use another 3 point shooter but that second group need that vet scorer as well and Wall, Beal and Nene should be enough scoring for the first group. Trevor A and Okafor will help anchor the D. I would try both and see how it works.

There is still a hole to work out in the front court. Kevin and Ves some nights. Kevin and Booker others. But depending on match up, both could suck. What they really need is a Gortat at center so Kevin can be the second PF. Thats the move they need to figure out. They have Booker, Ves and Singleton to offer up in a trade. Then Okafor can come off the bench next year and after that they sign him cheap to do the same for 2-3 year. That keep continuity. They would have a new starting center and solid back up. Nene and Kevin are the PF and you have someone backing that up. Booker would be fine in that roll and you can aways draft players for that as well.

So Ves is definitely on the bubble. If he is going to stick around, he better get a lot better soon. Its hard to keep a 6th pick as a 3rd PF. Again, to bad they didn't draft Nikola. He would have fit perfectly with what they need.

I agree that Wall needs to start, but I wouldn't flip flop Webster and Ariza. As a catch-and-shoot player, Webster is best utilized on a team with other primary options who know how to draw defensive attention and then kick the ball to the corner. Wall and Nene are the best on the team at that. Webster's gifts are wasted on the second unit which mostly runs Crawford and Seraphin isolations and pick and rolls. Also, the 2nd unit isn't in dire need of outside shooting at the SF spot because at least Price can shoot. They can get away with Ariza's less accurate shot and try to make it up at the other end with Ariza's superior D.

The data came from b-r. Check out their Play Index+. You can find this stuff in their shot finder. Not all of these will necessarily be heaves, of course. These are 3pt attempts with 1 second or less remaining in a period. Crawford was 0-6 as a rookie; 2-12 last season; 2-15 this season, according to b-r. http://bkref.com/tiny/5YFkv

This season, Crawford is actually leading the league in 3pt attempts with 1 second or fewer this season. Here's the top 10 in attempts:

League-wide, 259 players have at least one 3pt attempt in the last second of a quarter (or OT). The league collectively is shooting 93-815 -- .114. The league is shooting .356 on 3pters this season. Without those last second attempts, the league is shooting .365. League-wide, last second 3pt attempts are about 3.3% of overall 3FGA. For Crawford, it's about 9.9%.

Ha, just found another example of Lebron's douchiness. As much as that guy has the ball in his hands, he has exactly zero 3-point attempts at the buzzer on the season. He always waits to hear the buzzer before letting the ball leave his hands so he doesn't hurt his stats.

Intersting stuff. When he was a rookie i thought he was just a chucker who couldn't shoot. Last year i thought he was a chucker who might be able to shoot a respectable percentage if his shot selection wasn't so bad. Obviously the jury is still out but the latter is looking to be a possibility.

His dismal shot selection makes it hard to get a read on his shooting ability.

The blame for that waiting until the buzzer sounds thing actually belongs to Shane Battier. He's been doing that for years, and apparently has infected his teammates with it as well. Chalmers actually leads the team with 5 last-second 3pt attempts.

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."-- Malcolm Gladwell

nate33 wrote:Ha, just found another example of Lebron's douchiness. As much as that guy has the ball in his hands, he has exactly zero 3-point attempts at the buzzer on the season. He always waits to hear the buzzer before letting the ball leave his hands so he doesn't hurt his stats.

Here's a screen of 35+ foot attempts with 1 second on the clock. These are the truly futile attempts. Crawford has taken 7 of them (making none). If he simply did the Lebron and waitied for the buzzer before releasing, his 3pt percentage would be a respectable .354.

Nivek wrote:Lebron shows up as 0-3 on last-second 3pt attempts this season.

The blame for that waiting until the buzzer sounds thing actually belongs to Shane Battier. He's been doing that for years, and apparently has infected his teammates with it as well. Chalmers actually leads the team with 5 last-second 3pt attempts.

Missed that. Looking deeper, only 1 of those 3 attempts was from beyond 27 feet, indicating that perhaps the other 2 were meaningful shot attempts in a close game where Lebron really couldn't justify padding his stats.

If nothing else, this little discussion has served to point out the imprecision of some statistics. When you see that one guy shoots .380 from 3-point range and another guy shoots .355, there really might not be any meaningful difference between the two.

Well, I guess Durant's a douche too, then. He's also 0-1 on last-second heaves. I think it's interesting how few of these attempts that the game's better players have -- even guys you'd think would be the main ones with the ball in their hands late in a quarter. Carmelo is 0-1 this season.

Deron Williams is 0-5, which is 6th overall in attempts, but kinda low considering he's a PG and the ball would likely be in his hands a lot.

Damian Lillard is 0-4. Gay 0-3. Will Barton (!) is 0-2.

John Wall already has 2 last-second heaves.

Blatche has 2. So does Kidd, Harden and KG.

Ginobili is the only guy in the Spurs Big 3 with even one last-second heave. They leave that to Stephen Jackson and Danny Green.

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."-- Malcolm Gladwell

According the screen I ran, Durant is 1-3 on last second 3's, but only one of them is from 35+ (which must be the "heave" to which you are referring). Durant is also 5-9 on last second 2's.

In general, I can excuse any frontcourt player for not having many heave attempts. It's the point guards and primary ball handlers that tend to have the most opportunities for the 50-foot heave at the buzzer. I know damn well that Lebron has plenty of opportunities.

The Spurs are a bit fishy. I guess Parker is rarely in for the 1st and 3rd quarter heave, but he should be getting a few in the 2nd and 4th. Ginobili is usually in at the end of each quarter and he is a primary ball handler so he should have more heaves too.

Maybe good teams don't feel desperate enough to toss up a 3% shot at the end of the quarter. That numbers isn't a DRE -- on shots 30ft or longer in the last 5 seconds of a quarter or OT, the league is shooting 13-401 this season. 3.2%.

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."-- Malcolm Gladwell

WizarDynasty wrote:Ted is trying to transform you from a bullet .....piece of metal shot from a gin into a wizard....wise.... wisest fans in the .ba. board has a long way to go but ee have wise wizard posters to guide into Ted the savior rescue operation.

I really appreciate how Crawford's game has come along and his improved efficiency. That being said, he does seem like our best trade chip and I think we need to think about packaging him for bigger piece to the puzzle now, or no later than this summer. His contract is up after next season and he definitely will get offers as a RFA. I would not want to invest $4-5 MM per on a mullti year contract on Jordan considering what we'll have to invest eventually on Wall and Beal. We can't have that much $ tied into two positions and a scoring 6th man is a luxury that we shouldn't spend on until we're ready to contend. If we wait past this summer, his value deminishes so the time to move him is in the near future.

Just want to point out that while Crawford's efficiency has indeed improved, he's still 5 pts per 100 possessions less efficient than the league average. I like the progress he's made this season, particularly in the non-scoring parts of his game -- rebounding and assists especially. He's gotta improve that efficiency some more, though. This season, 38 players have at least 500 total minutes and a usage rate above 25%. Crawford is 26th on that list. (Kevin Seraphin is 37th.)

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."-- Malcolm Gladwell