ContendersThere is no question that Johnson is the favorite as the five-time defending champion but it is close. Denny Hamlin almost got there last year and he is a threat to do it this year. Carl Edwards came on strong at the end of last season and actually might be more of a threat to Johnson than Hamlin.

OverratedKevin Harvick was in the picture last year but you never really got the feeling he could win it. He could take a serious fall this season and is totally overvalued at 9-1. Tony Stewart is also overvalued at 10-1 at the sportsbook. He hasn’t shown he can win consistently on his own. You can put Mark Martin in the overrated class as well. He is a nice guy but he is simply too old to win a championship and his odds of 20-1 are way too low.

Long shotIf you want some value in a long shot then Jamie McMurray could be your driver. He didn’t make the chase last season but he sure was winning races on a regular basis down the stretch. He is listed at 25-1 and has a lot more value than someone like Martin who is 20-1 at the sportsbook website. Another interesting long shot is Joey Logano at 30-1. He wasn’t going to win much last year with his new team but now he has a year of experience and he could contend in 2011.