Bob Hunter commentary: Reds and Indians weigh their prospects, good and bad

Friday

Jul 31, 2009 at 12:01 AMJul 31, 2009 at 9:23 AM

As Cleveland Indians fans contemplate the prospects of a few more years of losing -- interesting word, "prospects" -- Cincinnati Reds fans might have dodged that bullet by losing now.

As Cleveland Indians fans contemplate the prospects of a few more years of losing -- interesting word, "prospects" -- Cincinnati Reds fans might have dodged that bullet by losing now.

A few weeks ago, they were clamoring for the Reds to be buyers at the trade deadline, hoping owner Bob Castellini and general manager Walt Jocketty would "go for it." The description applies to the strategy of a contending team trading some of its best prospects for temporary help to try to win now.

At that point, the Reds were within sniffing distance of the division leaders -- in the National League Central, you really can smell the best teams from close range -- and it was hoped that a little help might be all it took to put Cincinnati in the postseason for the first time since 1995.

The key word in that sentence is "hoped." As attractive as the prospect (there's that word again) of trading little-known minor-leaguers for real big-league talent might seem, the odds were against the Reds actually getting to the postseason. Not only had they been wildly inconsistent, there are too many teams that looked just as good (or just as mediocre) near the top.

The win-now sentiment was understandable, certainly. Hanging onto prospects who might never fulfill their promise is no way to live. Even losing in the first round of the playoffs, as the Reds seemed likely to do had they made it, would have been more fun than staring at the calendar and imagining how much fun we would all be having if the team were good in, say, 2012.

But shortly after that, the Reds started to lose regularly and fall in the standings. With the Reds 9 1/2 games out of first place as the nonwaiver trade deadline arrives at 4 p.m. today, being a buyer no longer seems like a good idea.

In effect, the Reds might have been spared a bad gamble or two by their own burst of losing. As long as Castellini and Jocketty don't start shedding players, fans might actually be lucky the way things worked out.

As of yesterday, the most talked-about trade possibility for the Reds was a deal for 34-year-old Toronto third baseman Scott Rolen, who would fill a leadership void in the clubhouse. Rolen is signed for next year, so the deal would be just the opposite of what the Indians did when they traded 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to Philadelphia.

Lee was signed through next year, but because he had indicated he would likely test free agency, the Indians dumped him for four prospects. In effect, they were saying there was no way they could reach the playoffs next season, even if he were on board.

That might be what angered Indians fans most. The team entered the season thinking it had a chance to reach the postseason, but in a few months it went from contender to starting over. Ownership has written off not only this year, but next, and maybe even a season or two beyond that.

More depressing for Ohio baseball fans (Pittsburgh Pirates followers included) is how their teams operate with so little margin for error. While the richer clubs can afford to hang onto a star player who might not be coming back or deal some top prospects for temporary help at the trade deadline, teams such as the Reds, Indians and Pirates have to weigh these decisions carefully.

There might be nothing worse than trading away the future for a present that turns out to be a mirage, especially when there's no money to buy the team out of a no-prospects jam for several years.

But trading away the next couple of seasons for young players who might not be as good as advertised in three or four years also isn't such a hot, uh, prospect.

It probably makes a lot of people wish they had never heard of that ugly word.

Bob Hunter is a sports columnist for The Dispatch.

bhunter@dispatch.com

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