THE South Pacific - that vast area that spawned Cyclone Yasi - is likely to produce 15 cyclones this season.

The good news is that it is likely only one, possibly two, might make the Queensland coast.

National Climate Centre climatologist Andrew Watkins said an average of one cyclone per year crossed the coast from the South Pacific.

Dr Watkins said it was easy to overlook the danger of big storms forming deep in the Pacific.

"Cyclone Yasi is a classic example,'' he said.

"It formed near Fiji and made a beeline for the Queensland coast. It shows that you have to be quite cautious about tropical cyclones that form quite a long way offshore.''

Residents sift through the remains of a house in Tully following Cyclone Yasi. Picture: Jake Nowakowski.Source:News Limited

A total of eight cyclones are expected in the western Pacific this season - from Queensland to just east of Vanuatu - and a further 11 in the eastern region which stretches from Vanuatu to past French Polynesia.

This is average cyclonic activity due to neutral El Nino-La Nina conditions.

Dr Watkins said La Nina years saw the most crossings and the last time multiple crossings occurred was in the 2010-11 season, with Queensland copping Anthony, Yasi and Ului. Zelia formed between Queensland and PNG and did not cross.

"We'll probably only get one crossing this year but you can't discount two,'' he said. "The important thing is to prepare. You need only one cyclone to ruin your summer.''

Yasi formed off Fiji on January 29, 2011 before smashing into the Mission Beach area six days later.

Other notable South Pacific cyclones include Monica in 2006, which had the highest intensity of any cyclone in Australia, and Larry in the same year which built up southeast of PNG, and Ului in 2010 which formed near Vanuatu.

A total of four cyclones come ashore in Australia annually, when those that form in the Gulf of Carpentaria, off the NT and WA also are taken into account.

One of the more unusual South Pacific cyclones was Steve which formed on the doorstep of Cairns on February 25, 2000.

What to expect from cyclone seasonSource:Supplied

It travelled from one side of Australia to the other, through the Kimberleys, south through WA before crossing into the South Australian Bight near Esperance on March 11.

A total of three cyclones are expected to form in the northern region this season, between the tip of Cape York and WA.

In good news for drought-hit graziers, parts of Cape York had falls up to 50mm last week and Weather Bureau forecasters have predicted isolated storms over the Gulf of Carpentaria for this week.

Forecaster Michael Knepp said it was a sign of moisture starting to build.

"We're getting a little activity but there's a huge rainfall deficit and we need a big break and that is not on the horizon at the moment,'' he said.

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