South Carolina Democratic Primary: Is This Bad News for Bernie Sanders?

By Gaurav S. Iyer, IFC Published : February 26, 2016

Polling the South Carolina Democratic Primary

After Donald Trump’s barrage of wins, all eyes are turning to the South Carolina Democratic Primary. The February 27 contest could be a final chance for Hillary Clinton to steal momentum from Bernie Sanders ahead of the Super Tuesday primary.

Clinton and Sanders have 51 delegates a piece after having squared off in three states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The first, Iowa, was a virtual tie. Then Sanders trounced the former secretary of state in New Hampshire, before losing to her in Nevada.

The South Carolina Democratic Primary could serve as a tie breaker, a singular contest that tips the favor sharply to one side. Lucky for Clinton, she’s dominated the in-state polling for quite some time. Here’s a month-to-month trail by YouGov:

So until late last month, it was fairly clear that Clinton was going to win South Carolina. But then the Sanders campaign gathered some steam and started to close the gap.

Of course, a 19% spread still implies a huge victory for Hillary, but the shift in momentum was noticeable and significant. However, two polls released on February 25 suggest those gains may be diminishing.

Just to be clear, that means there is a possibility that Clinton may have pulled ahead by 50 points in the South Carolina Democratic Primary.