Future Shock

A's Top 11 Prospects

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Four More:
12. Fautino De Los Santos, RHP: A former top prospect, De Los Santos looked good in his brief return from Tommy John surgery; he has ability to move back up this list.
13. Anthony Capra, LHP: Capra has plus command and a changeup that together could equal back-of-the-rotation possibilities.
14. Shane Peterson, OF: He has a line-drive bat and plus speed that both impress, but it's slightly incongruous with a corner outfield profile.
15. Ian Krol, LHP: Krol's a raw left-hander with an outstanding breaking ball who got a $925,000 bonus in the seventh round.

Year in Review: After leading the minors in total bases in 2008, Carter used a monstrous second half to tie for the minor-league lead in 2009.
The Good: Carter has top-of-the-charts power, with natural loft and backspin as well as the kind of strength where he doesn't have to pull a ball or even make full contact for it to fly over the wall. He made impressive adjustments against more advanced pitching to close up some holes in his swing, reducing his strikeout rate as the season wore on, leaving most to believe he'll hit for average as well. Combined with a good feel for the strike zone, he could put up big numbers in all three triple-slash categories.
The Bad: Carter will always have a high strikeout rate, as it's just a product of his offensive game, but he still has a tendency to chase at times. Despite putting in a lot of work defensively, he remains a below-average first baseman.
Ephemera: In his last 52 games for Double-A Midland, Carter had one of the longest extended hot streaks of the year, batting a remarkable .412 (82-for-199) with 18 doubles and 12 home runs.
Perfect World Projection: He's likely to be a .280- to .300-hitting first baseman with 30-40 home runs annually.
Path to the Big Leagues:Daric Barton has a better glove, and showed some signs of life with the bat down the stretch, giving him first shot at the job.
Timetable: Carter will need a monster spring training to break camp with the big leagues. He'll likely begin the year back at Triple-A, but it's unlikely he'll finish there.

Year in Review: After a breakout year in 2008, Taylor proved his doubters wrong by repeating his performance at the upper levels before arriving in Oakland from Philadelphia (via Toronto) for first-base prospect Brett Wallace.
The Good: Taylor is one of the more unique hitting prospects in baseball. Built like a defensive lineman, Taylor employs a contact-oriented approach that leads to a high batting average and consistent contact rate, while projecting for 20-25 home runs annually just because he's so big and strong. He's a phenomenal athlete for his size, and an average runner once he gets going, while his arm is another plus tool. He gets high grades for his makeup and work ethic.
The Bad: Taylor's power ceiling is no more than average because of his approach, although those disappointed by that are ignoring all of the other skills he brings to the table. His ability to make contact causes his to expand his strike zone at times, and a more patient approach could make him an even better hitter. His outfield play can be a bit sloppy at times, and his routes to the ball are often circular.
Ephemera: Taylor graduated sixth in his class academically at Apopka High School in Florida, the same school that produced Royals ace Zack Greinke.
Perfect World Projection: Taylor will probably be a hitting third in the order in the big leagues.
Path to the Big Leagues: The A's system is loaded with young outfielders who are either close to big league-ready or still establishing themselves in the big leagues. It's a crowded situation, but none of them have Taylor's talent.
Timetable: Taylor will begin the 2010 season at Triple-A Sacramento, and is expected to make his major-league debut at some point in the season.

Year in Review: The highest-profile Dominican signing in baseball history saw his professional debut delayed by lingering elbow problems.
The Good: No teenager in the game can match Ynoa's projection. Healthy and pitching in the Dominican this winter, Ynoa sat at 92-94 mph while touching 95, and he also showcased a sharp breaking ball and impressive changeup. His long, angular frame is nearly ideal, and he's impressed the A's with his understanding of the game.
The Bad: Ynoa needs innings, and with 2009 going down as a lost season, that means he's now on track with most his age, instead of way ahead of them. The elbow issues are a red flag for some, although he showed no ill effects this winter. There's little to knock about his abilities, other than the fact that we haven't seen them much yet.
Ephemera: Ynoa was born on the day Nirvana released Nevermind, the album that unleashed grunge onto an audience outside that of the independent music scene.
Perfect World Projection: Ace.
Path To The Big Leagues: The A's have exercised incredible patience with Ynoa, and that doesn't look like it will end anytime soon, so this might be a while.
Timetable: Ynoa will likely spend all of 2010 in Arizona, beginning the year in extended spring training before making his official pro debut in the Arizona League. Oakland wants to keep him close to their facility in Phoenix before hopefully letting the reins go in 2011.

Year in Review: After barely playing since getting drafted due to a variety of injuries, this toolsy outfielder was the minor league's only 30/30 player and earned MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League.
The Good: Desme certainly has the tools to be a top prospect. He has plus-plus raw power that comes from a combination of bat speed and brute strength, while his tick-above-average speed play up due to outstanding instincts on the basepaths. He's an above-average outfielder with a strong arm.
The Bad: Desme's power can also be his undoing at times, as he gets power-conscious with his swing, strikes out a ton, and is prone to extended slumps. While he performed admirably in center, his skill set plays much better in a corner. His plate discipline is average, and he can be fooled by good breaking stuff. Because of all the injuries to start his career, he's been on the age/development curve, as he turns 24 in April without even having played at the upper levels.
Ephemera: In a testament to his streakiness, Desme went 23-for-49 (.469) with ten home runs in his first 12 Arizona Fall League games, but was just 11-for-59 (.186) with one bomb in his last 15 contests for Phoenix with 20 strikeouts.
Perfect World Projection: Desme projects as an everyday corner outfielder with 30 home runs a year and enough elsewhere to make up for the strikeouts, but he's not going to steal 30 bags in the majors.
Path to the Big Leagues: There is a long line of outfielders in Oakland waiting for their shot, and Desme is currently one year behind most of them.
Timetable: Desme will begin 2010 at Double-A Midland hoping to find more consistency while proving that 2009's breakout was the real deal.

Year in Review: Potentially the second pick in the draft entering the spring, Green had a disappointing junior year and fell to Oakland's 13th pick, where he received an above-slot bonus of $2.75 million.
The Good: Green fits the new mold of being a big, athletic shortstop. He's a 60-65 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and features gap power with the potential for getting close to average. He possesses excellent defensive fundamentals, and Oakland officials were pleasantly surprised at Green's ability to hit the ground running in his five California League games after a long layoff.
The Bad: The are questions about where Green fits defensively in the long term. His arm is a bit light for shortstop in terms of both strength and accuracy, making him below average on plays to his right. There are many believe he'd work better at second base, while some even tinkered with the idea of trying him in center. While there are a few weaknesses in his game, little about it screams impact potential.
Ephemera: Green was the first true freshman to start at shortstop for the USC Trojans in nearly 20 years.
Perfect World Projection: He'll likely be an above-average up-the-middle player, maybe even an occasional All-Star.
Path to the Big Leagues: The A's have a ton of second basemen, but shortstop has been a hole for a while, and Cliff Pennington is anything but a guarantee as a long-term solution.
Timetable: Green's performance this spring will dictate his assignment for 2010, but the most likely destination for him is High-A Stockton.

Year in Review: Rumored to be in Oakland's mix for their first-round pick, Oakland was thrilled to see him still on the board in the fourth round, and they gave him a $1.5 million bonus.
The Good: Stassi is the rare catcher with the potential to provide above-average value both offensively and defensively. He has a quick, compact swing that leads to consistent hard contact, projecting as a high-average hitter with gap power. Defensively, he's smooth and agile behind the plate with soft hands, and had the best pure receiving skills of any catcher in the draft.
The Bad: Stassi is short and stocky, and he runs like a catcher. There isn't a lot of power in his game, but he could develop double-digit pop as his swing matures. His arm is average, and he has a history of shoulder issues from his school.
Ephemera: Stassi became the sixth player drafted out of Yuba City High School (none of whom reached the majors), whose school nickname is the Honkers, after the Canadian geese who frequent the area.
Perfect World Projection: Stassi has the potential to be a .280-.300 hitting catcher with 10-15 home runs and plus defense.
Path to the Big Leagues:Kurt Suzuki is one of the better young catchers in the game, but it's far too early to worry about that.
Timetable: Stassi's 14-game pro debut was enough to convince Oakland that he's ready for a full-season assignment. He'll begin 2010 at Low-A Kane County.

Year in Review: Oakland's first-round pick in 2008 hit well at High-A, struggled after a promotion, and continued to be beset by injuries.
The Good: Weeks' tools rank with anyone of the system. Like older brother Rickie, Weeks' bat speed is off the charts and, despite his size, he's shown an ability to punish mistakes, and projects to hit 15-20 home runs annually. He's a 60 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and knows how to use his speed on the bases. He also has an excellent understanding of the strike zone, which should lead to 70-90 walks annually.
The Bad: Weeks has been limited to just 99 games since signing due to a number of injuries, leading some to already slap the 'prone' label on him. Despite being a switch-hitter, he struggles against good left-handers. Multiple scouts questioned his effort at times, noting highly inconsistent times down the line and indifferent defensive play.
Ephemera: Jemile and Rickie aren't the only athletes in the family, as sister Valeria was an NCAA Regional Finalist in track.
Perfect World Projection: Weeks could be a second baseman with a high on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and 25 stolen bases annually.
Path to the Big Leagues: Weeks is currently in a one-year battle with Adrian Cardenas for the big-league second base job beginning in 2011.
Timetable: Weeks will begin 2010 back at Double-A Midland, and some feel he could take a major step forward by simply having a healthy year.

Year in Review: The high-ceiling righty was at his best at the end of the year, delivering scoreless outings in three of his last four regular season starts while striking out 19 over 12 1/3 frames in a pair of playoff outings.
The Good: When he's on, Ross is electric, with a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96, a plus power slider that is a true out pitch, and a changeup that projects as at least average. When scouts talk about a "classic power pitcher's frame," Ross is the poster boy, and his command and control are solid.
The Bad: The A's have worked hard to smooth out Ross' delivery, but there are still a lot of moving parts to it, which leads to inconsistent outings. The shoulder issues he went through in 2008 did not show up last year, but scouts still see his arm action as a bit on the violent side.
Ephemera: Ross attended Bishop O'Dowd High School in Oakland, which also produced big leaguers Greg Norton and Ryan Drese.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be a good third starter.
Path to the Big Leagues: The A's are loaded with young arms, but Ross has the raw ability to separate himself from the pack.
Timetable: After his late-season showing, some in the A's system believe that Ross is on the verge of a breakout showing. A numbers game could have him starting the year in Double-A, but continued progress could lead to a big-league audition by the end of the year.

Year in Review: This infielder kept on hitting in his first full year with Oakland, as he's hit no lower than .295 in any of four pro seasons.
The Good: Cardenas might be the best pure hitter in the system, as he puts the thick part of the bat on balls with great consistency, showing off gap power and no weaknesses by pitch type or side. He's as comfortable turning on a ball as he is going the other way, and he's improved his plate discipline to at least average. He has very good hands defensively.
The Bad: Cardenas has hit just four home runs over 156 games at the upper levels, and few believe there's much more coming. He's not especially athletic, even at second base, and his bat doesn't profile well for the hot corner, where he played for the first time last year.
Ephemera: Cardenas is aiming to become the first position player drafted out of Monsignor Pace to reach the big leagues, but the school has already produced one member of the A's roster in lefty Gio Gonzalez.
Perfect World Projection: He projects to be a .300-hitting second baseman with 40 doubles.
Path to the Big Leagues: Both Cardenas and Weeks are hoping to do well enough for Oakland to decline Mark Ellis' 2011 option.
Timetable: Cardenas will begin 2010 back at Triple-A Sacramento, but he should make his Oakland debut during the second half.

Year in Review: A power/speed combination player, Brown made significant progress at Double-A, albeit while dealing with knee issues.
The Good: On a pure tools level, Brown is highly similar to Desme. He has plus raw power and above-average speed, and he has a better chance of staying in the middle defensively to go with an arm that is a tick above average. He cut down his strikeout rate significantly in 2009, leaving more scouts convinced that his bat will play enough to get to the big leagues.
The Bad: Brown still has a lot of holes in his swing, and he'll never hit for a high average. Injuries to both knees last year have created some long-term concern over his speed staying with him as he advances up the ladder. He might need a platoon partner in the big leagues, as left-handers have always given him trouble.
Ephemera: Oklahoma State has produced four big-league players with more than 200 career home runs: Jeromy Burnitz (315), Robin Ventura (294), Mickey Tettleton (245), and Pete Incaviglia (206).
Perfect World Projection: Most likely, he will be a low-average power/speed threat in center field.
Path to the Big Leagues: There are plenty of outfielders ahead of Brown on the depth chart for now.
Timetable: Brown will join Taylor at Triple-A Sacramento in what will be one of the most physically impressive outfields in the minors.

Year in Review: Figueroa was a late bloomer who earned the A's Pitcher of the Year honors with strong showings at both full-season A-ball affiliates.
The Good: Figueroa has well above-average velocity for a southpaw, sitting at 91-94 mph with his fastball and touching 95 several times a night. His slider is a go-to offering with considerable two-plane break, while his changeup projects at least average. Once quite wild, the A's have slowed down his mechanics, and he was able to consistently throw strikes in 2009 with all of his offerings.
The Bad: Figueroa is slight of build, and has problems maintaining his stuff deep into games. He's already 24, and has just one full-season league year of experience under his belt. He needs to find more consistency with his changeup, as well as find the confidence to use it.
Ephemera: Figueroa had a 1.86 ERA in six home starts for High-A Stockton, but his ERA ballooned to 6.00 on the road.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be a third or fourth starter, with a backup plan as a late-inning reliever.
Path to the Big Leagues: Lefties who throw hard tend to get plenty of chances.
Timetable: After moving at a snail's pace through the Oakland system, Figueroa will move more aggressively through the system with a likely 2010 assignment to Double-A Midland.

The Sleeper: Shortstop Dusty Coleman has the tools and athleticism to stay at the position, while offering surprising power.

Nobody was surprised to see Anderson succeed in his big-league debut, but between good coaching, a continued dedication to conditioning, and maybe just arriving on the big-league stage itself, he gained 2-3 mph on his fastball and suddenly looks like someone with ace potential. Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey has to stuff to keep it up for years. Trevor Cahill's big-league debut was troubling, as the plus breaking ball he was depending on in the minors suddenly became a non-factor as his command went backwards. If the curve doesn't return, he's just another guy. Cliff Pennington does nothing spectacularly, but he's a solid across-the-board shortstop in a world where there are fewer than even 30 of those. Barton suddenly started hitting at the end of 2009, which is something he's always done in the minor leagues, so he'll get a shot at proving it's for real. Despite a miserable big-league showing in 2009, outfielder Aaron Cunningham still has plenty of believers. Not making the list include righty Vin Mazzaro, whose lack of an out pitch really caught up with him in the big leagues, as well as lefty Gio Gonzalez, who has now driven three organizations nuts with his inconsistency; on one day he looks like a third starter, and five days later you wonder if he could get Sally League hitters out. Also missing is Ryan Sweeney, a good fourth outfielder masquerading as a starter.

Summary: The A's still have an excellent collection of elite and potentially-elite level talent in the system, but a number of graduations have left the system a bit on the thin side. Still, between the majors and the minors, the Oakland rebuilding process remains a go on all systems.

I'm confused about your view of Pennington. On the one hand, he's "anything but a guarantee as a long-term solution", and not a serious roadblock to Green. On the other hand, he's the #7 under-25 talent in the organization, and a "solid across-the-board shortstop"?

Desme seems to have a lot of question marks in his description for a 4-star guy. Brown's description sounds a bit more impressive.

Leon is actually 16 for me, so he JUST MISSED. Rodriguez would be in the 17-20 range, and 2010 is a make-or-break season. Hornbeck's numbers are way better than his stuff and Josh Donaldson doesn't do much for scouts at all, as his receiving skills behind the plate remain poor.

Problem comes for anyone who wants to just read the whole page, uninterrupted. I can skim pretty easily over the Inoa question without breaking stride. If i want to see what's in the hidden comment, however, I've gotta break that stride.

And yeah, I do want to see what's in the hidden comments because it seems like a decent enough percentage of them have some useful points or questions. So when you flag both the Inoa "oversight" and the pithy question you just happen to disagree with, the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater.

Ugh. All this discussion has demonstrated is EXACTLY why the thumbs down/hidden comments section is a good thing. Just ask anyone who was able to skip over this pointless tangent and got to read only comments about A's prospects. I can only wish I was among them.

Maybe I'm wrong, but BP readers generally don't seem to skip over things. They like investigating things, getting detail and drilling-down. Should articles get truncated for having too much math or metrics? That goes for the comments too. There're quite a few comment threads that contain statistics and analysis.

However, it would've been nice if I had the option to delete my own thread on Ynoa before anyone else had the opportunity to comment on it.

You mean, posts like your own off-topic editorial comment several posts above?

"Right. Why would people thumbs down two completely unnecessary comments cluttering the page."

Or this one:

"He got enough thumbs down that it hid what was by his own admission a pretty silly comment.
Its not like we chopped off a hand."

You've done as much as anyone to keep us off topic. Could you maybe show a little less righteousness, and a little more tolerance? I'm a long-time subscriber who faithfully reads nearly every column posted, and waited an awful long time to make a simple request here. The least you could do is show a little tolerance for my point, oh mighty Sickels fan.

All of them, especially the first two, have the ability to move way up. I don't think Cardenas is a crazy upside guy as much as he's a .300 hitter who doesn't offer much else. He's not going to him home runs, he's not going to run, and he's not going to be a walk machine, so he kind of HAS TO hit .300. Brown is the opposite, where he's never going to hit for average, but you hope he does enough other things to make up for it.

I've always been a Patterson fan, and think he'll be a great utility player for Oakland this year. Sweeney we'll just disagree on -- I agree that he's a very good defender, but that is not an every day bat on a good team.

I think Pennington can be an Alex Gonzalez-type SS, all defense and limited offensive ability. While that certainly isn't what you build a team around, there are plenty of opportunities for a player like that to have a valuable role on the right team.

There has obviously been a great deal of emphasis toward valuing defense lately, but I think Sweeney is an example of it going too far. Yes, he had a crazy year according to advanced metrics, but those metrics have sample-size issues and have shown some fairly large fluctuations from year to year. It's risky to put too much faith in them.

Can you explain how Cunningham has gone from a 3 star to a 4 star and Cardenas has dropped from a 4 star to a 3 star? It seems as though Cardenas played better than expected this year, while Cunningham played a bit worse than expected.

I think Cardenas' power tends to be underrated due to his age and leagues. His ISO in the FSL and TEX have been just about league average, despite being very young for the leagues.

You used the word "historic" when discussing Ynoa when he first burst on the scene...it looks like the enthusiasm has been tempered. What word can we use to replace "historic" with him? Is he a Felix Hernandez type?

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Meh. They'll all be traded as soon as they are arb-eligible for some more prospects, who will then be traded when they become arb-eligible. The Oakland A's- "the team of the future, and they always will be"

Well....the A's go to arbitration with a lot of their players, they tend to deal guys before they hit free agency. And honestly, there aren't a lot of guys they've let walk after free agency that A's fans truly wish they still had, aside from the nostalgic ones.

They let Zito, Mulder, Hudson, Tejada, and Giambi (those are the ones I can recall just off the top of my head) go rather than pay what other teams ended up paying. I doubt any of the teams that signed those guys thought they got their money's worth, with the possible exception of the Yankees, for whom money is a means, not an end.

The A's are smart enough to realize that the price of most FA's far exceed their value; and they can't afford those few FA's whose performance is worth their paycheck. What are they supposed to do?

Yep they are in rebuilding mode, unless you are based in a top 2 media market or Boston no team can do rebuilding without losing and entering into a period where they are not competitive. They have had losing record since 2007, looking at this prospect list I doubt they will remain there past next year.

It doesn't matter that all those players moved on (at least to me), what I care about is their prospect status. Haren and Gonzalez were prospects, and Kevin's job is to write about prospects. There has to be some form of organization, and he has done it by club. Who cares if the A's trade them in a couple years? I just want to know how good Kevin thinks they'll be. No matter who they play for.

The thing is, ScottyB, every time there's any discussion about the A's anywhere on the web, someone perks up about how the A's get rid of all their players. This has been happening for years now. Therefore, it is actually your statement that is predictable.

It is predictable that BP readers reflexively defend the As even when they don't deserve it. And it is predictable that someone will make a contrary comment and then get negative ratings. (I loved Moneyball, too, but Beane's grace period is expiring soon)

I'm tired of having to click twice to see comments that were hidden only because someone on here disagreed with them. I guess I can't fault people for wanting to express their disagreement, but can we make it so that it doesn't cause the rest of us to have to click multiple times just to read thru the comments? Seems like hidden posts should be for things that are really offensive, or otherwise inappropriate. At least half of the comments that get hidden just seem to be dissenting opinion.

It also doesn't seem like the result of the comment being hidden matches up with the stated purpose. Readers are asked to "Rate" the comment by giving it a + or - 1. Fair enough - that's just saying you agree or disagree.

But the result is that when enough minuses build up, the comment is considered "below the viewing threshold." That's not what I would have thought was being considered when asked to rate the comment as + or -. It could be a highly sophisticated, intelligent, well-articulated comment that I just happen to disagree with (and thus give a minus to) - that doesn't mean, however, that I want to see the comment disappear, or that it's below some "quality threshold."

Please change either the policy, or how it is implemented. Why have a comment section if a minority opinion will be removed?

Really? You just compared BP to a communist state? I realize that clicking on the comment takes an extra 0.5 second and maybe 50 calories (small "c"), but I'd hardly compare that with sending the commenter to Siberia.

Kevin, what about Brett Hunter? The A's spent a lot of money on him--I knew he had a tough year bouncing back from surgery--any hopes of him still turning into a frontline starter or maybe a reliever a la Carlos Marmol?

He's definitely a reliever only, but besides not throwing strikes in '09, he wasn't throwing especially hard either. I saw him several times in person last year, and he was 90-92 and touching 94 -- well off what he showed in college and man was it taking a lot of effort. It just wasn't a pretty sight.