Quantitative Research

What is the Expected Course of Equity Returns?

September 21, 2017

Domestic equity returns have fluctuated throughout the decades. Investors catching the high ends of equity returns may have averaged about 7.5% real return since the beginning of the 1990s and more than 10% real return in the current decade. In our paper, “Expected Course of the Expected Equity Returns,” we discuss and calculate the likely rate of return on domestic equities in the long-term, or over a full market cycle, which may span a ten-year period of peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough returns.

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