Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.

Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on recordThe year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.

Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Additional Information=====================Last infrared and visible imagery depict an improving eye pattern since 0900 AM UTC (better eye definition, top of clouds cooling). At 1200 PM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly. At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system has moved southward at about 4kt over the past 6 hours. Environmental conditions are favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (05-10 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and with a good outflow southward. Sea surface temperatures are good (27C). System undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. After 24 hours, southward movement may remain rather slow, and may increase progressively then and after. Beyond 72 hours, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and track southeastward faster.

On the forecast track, for the next 24 hours, environmental conditions may remain favorable and system intensity may fluctuate around the actual intensity. after 24 hours, system may begin to weaken, first with the weakening of the heat oceanic content south of 17.0S. On and after 48 hours, the vertical wind shear should strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough. After 72 hours, system may begin its extratropical transition. Winds may remain strong and begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement for the track.

If you want to see the highlights, you can go to mmafighting.com and see them. Pac-man vs marquez is on the lower right of the highlights.

Thanks for that. I've opened the windows to let in the nice cool breeze that was a wild gale today into my lounge room. I'm going to plonk my butt down in front of the tv to watch the Manchester Derby starting in about 5mins. It's going to be a cracker.

SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND JUST WEST OF ANUPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE PAST24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND FURTHER DEVELOPING ANDMOVING IT SOUTHWEST WARDS.The Depression is intensifying and has a moderate probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. However, from Thursday, the system is expected to be moving into an area of unfavourable conditions, which will significantly reduce its chances of developing into a tropical cyclone, thus, remain as a tropical depression, as it heads into the high seas.

AFTER the eastern beaches coastline resembled the Red Sea last Tuesday, the "night lantern" visited Sydney's Malabar beach that evening.

These photos have not been digitally enhanced - in fact, photographer Dr David Psaila said the water was an even more spectacular colour blue than that shown in these images, the Southern Courier reports.

"The organism responsible, Noctiluca Scintillans known as "night lantern" is very aptly named, as it will luminesce a bright blue when it is disturbed by waves," he said.

The Chifley scientist said the red algae that crept along the east coast last week contained a chemical called luciferin which was a common protein found in bioluminescent animals.

“It’s a chemical reaction that causes light,” he said. “It is often found in deep sea creatures and is the exact same chemical that causes fire flies to glow.”

Dr Psaila said although he had seen this effect before but never to this degree.

“The reason why there are probably not seeing it at other beaches is that those beaches would have a lot more lights around so its really hard to see whereas at Malabar – you see the waves rolling in and they are all blue,” he said.

What a fight it was. Best of the year I thought. Wow what a punch from Marquez to end it. Maybe the hardest I have ever seen anyone hit in my life. Did you happen to catch Henderson and Diaz in the MMA bout

I haven't actually seen the fight, either of them. Just kept up to date via twitter.

Wild winds halt Australian Open golf championships in Sydney

GALE force winds have swept through parts of Sydney, bringing down trees and forcing the suspension of the Australian Open golf championships.

Gusts of up to 65 km/h were forecast for Sydney on Sunday, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warning of strong south to southeasterly winds and 2.5 metre seas.

Before noon, the final round of the Australian Open golf championship was halted at the Lakes Golf Club in Sydney's south, as winds of up to 75 km/h left officials with little alternative but to stop play.

A NSW State Emergency Service (SES) spokeswoman said they had received almost 30 requests for assistance due to damaged roofs and fallen trees and branches in south and eastern suburbs. "In particular from Sutherland, Kogarah, Hurstville and Randwick," she told AAP.

Volunteers were also fixing a small part of Matraville Sports High School.

Meanwhile, the BoM has also issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the Mid-North Coast, Hunter and parts of the Central Tablelands and Northern Tablelands districts, forecasting large hailstones, heavy rain and damaging winds.

Locations that may be affected include Taree, Kempsey, Scone, Cessnock, Maitland, Katoomba, Bellingen, Dorrigo and Ebor.

The 1st Amendment was one of the laws the early US statesmen passed which set it apart from most of the other nations of its day. Unlike the Prohibition amendment, its validity is unchallenged even today.

And, like many other things, lots of people cite it without full knowledge or understanding of what it says. [Just like the Bible or other books of "law"].

Quoting AussieStorm:Hey Mate, I'm here, Just celebrated my daughters 7th Birthday today, also watch the Pacman v Marquez fight. It's the only thing that can take the tragedy of Pablo/Bopha off the front pages of the Filipino news websites. - ANC

What a fight it was. Best of the year I thought. Wow what a punch from Marquez to end it. Maybe the hardest I have ever seen anyone hit in my life. Did you happen to catch Henderson and Diaz in the MMA bout

One of the most cherished parts of the United States Constitution, and one that is under near constant attack by those who fear a free press; by those who think protesters should have no rights; by those who'd like to see opinions different from their own silenced; by those who want the stark lines separating government and religion blurred or obliterated. All dangerous stuff, so defensive vigilance every bit as constant as those attacks must be maintained.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the death toll from Bopha go higher than last year's Washi. Because a different part of Mindanao was hit, there were many people who were not prepared by last year's experience. In the Oro de Cayagan valley, it seems, people were considerably more wary.

They are going to have to do something about the shelter designations, though. Obviously you can't continue to send people to shelters that are going to be flooded by water, engulfed by mud or that will slide down the mountain in heavy rains.

TAGUM CITY, Philippines—Authorities fear that the death toll due to typhoon Pablo (international codename: Bopha) could reach 1,000 as almost 600 bodies have been recovered in the two hardest-hit Mindanao provinces.The stench of rotting bodies have become unbearable, prompting rescuers to immediately bury the bodies after they were found, said Capt. Raul Villegas, of the Army’s 10th Infantry Division, based in Mawab town, in Compostela Valley.“We are still hoping we can find survivors,” Villegas said on Sunday. “But the chance (of finding anyone alive) is getting thinner by the hour.”Search operations on the fifth day after the disaster were concentrated in the devastated town of New Bataan, where sniffer dogs have been deployed to lead teams from police, Army and rescue groups to bodies buried under fallen trees or thick mud that enveloped a large swathe of the desolate town.At least 316 bodies have been found in Compostela Valley, 165 of them in New Bataan alone. The death toll there included four soldiers belonging to the Charlie Company of the Army’s 66th Infantry Battalion, said Villegas.At least 441 people are still missing in New Bataan, and 20 others in other areas of the 11-town Compostela Valley.Villegas said Davao Oriental has recorded 276 dead, including 122 in Baganga and 103 in Cateel municipalities. About 61 persons are still missing in that province.Villegas said search operations would not be stopped, “’til we can.”He said identification of the bodies has been a problem due to the heavy stench.“The bodies are buried immediately with the consent of the relatives,” the military official said.In Cateel, Davao Oriental, boys and girls are either just loitering aimlessly on the streets, helping their parents in the many tasks at hand, or are begging for food.Darryl Blatchley, a member of a religious ministry in Davao city, who arrived with a jeepney loaded with relief goods, was overwhelmed with what he saw in the town.“The villagers badly need food and we have yet to go to remote areas where people are in great need. It’s so sad that help has not reached to their area yet,” he said.Due to the lack of resources, some villagers opted to bury their dead relatives in the lot where their houses once stood.“Several of our neighbors had no choice. They do not have money to have a decent burial for the dead,” said Jerry Terio, 40, who has been helping his brother-in-law, who lost his parents and several other family members.Liza Ayeng, 43, expressed her frustration over the fact that help from the government has not arrived.“We have asked local politicians for help, but they just told us they have nothing to give,” Ayeng said.Residents in Baganga town have also complained that they have not received relief goods from the government. They said relief goods were poured in Cateel, the hometown of Governor Corazon Malanyaon.Leonor Escodillo said she had to leave Baganga for Mati City because they were getting hungrier by the day.“Walang dumating na relief galing sa gobyerno. Mabuti pa ang GMA 7 nagbigay (No relief goods came from the government. It’s a good thing GMA 7 (television network) gave,” said Escodillo, who was with her one-year-old son on a bus to Mati City to live with her sister.

MANILA - Unchecked illegal gold mining and decades of indiscriminate logging contributed to the high death toll in the Philippines' worst natural disaster this year, officials and experts say.

Whole towns were washed away or buried by landslides when Typhoon Botha smashed into a mountainous region on the southern island of Mindanao last week, leaving 548 people confirmed dead and 827 missing.

Poverty, greed and the lure of the precious metal have long drawn thousands of prospectors to the region.

"Mining and logging may have had an effect," said civil defense chief Benito Ramos.

"The mountains have been denuded for decades, and filled with holes by our countrymen who are small-time miners. It pains me to say this, but these are the facts," he said.

The worst-hit southern town of New Bataan is both a centre of the devastated banana industry and host to some of the thousands of illegal gold-mining operations in the Mindanao province of Compostela Valley.

Geologists say the mountainous area is mostly unsafe for habitation. But numerous small, illegal or poorly regulated gold mines dot its slopes and the local government says they provide 40 percent of the province's economic output.

Much of the forest cover was also cut down long ago to make way for row upon row of bananas to supply the major markets of China, Iran and Japan.

The plantations and hopes of striking it rich have drawn hundreds of thousands of poor migrants in search of work. They settle in mountain hamlets around which poisonous mercury, used to extract gold from rock, is routinely dumped into rivers.

The deluge wrought by the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year came despite days of preparations and advance warnings including an early evacuation of vulnerable areas.

Governor Arthur Uy said 75,000 people, or one in five in the province, rely on the mines and regulation is a sore point.

The environment ministry insists it is the local officials like Uy who are required by law to issue small-scale mining permits and who must ensure people do not settle areas considered prone to landslides and flash floods.

But Uy protested that the ministry's "geohazard maps" show that 80 percent of the entire province is a danger zone.

"What shall we do? Should we all move from Compostela Valley?" he said.

Uy also said miners had resisted efforts to relocate them, preferring the danger to poverty.

"It is the risk they are willing to take, just to strike it rich. They don't want to move," he said.

Larry Heradez, a technical officer for the Philippine government's mining regulator, said people in New Bataan and nearby gold-rush areas may have known about the danger but sought refuge in the wrong areas.

"There is a problem of information dissemination. The local officials also thought they are evacuating to an area which was safe," he told AFP.

Rescuers said government shelters were among buildings swept by the floods.

In any case, all the elements of a disaster in the making were already there long before geohazard maps came into fashion, said University of the Philippines geology professor Sandra Catana.

"They (have been) living in these areas before technology came about including the awareness of geohazards in this country which started only in 1990s," she told AFP.

With Mindanao usually spared by the 20 or so storms that lash the Philippines every year, people may have become complacent and were caught unprepared by the typhoon which struck further south than usual, officials said.

But the head of a government flood control program, Mahar Lagmay, warned that weather patterns were changing.

"Previously we have had tracks in the last several decades where (storms) were moving more to the north. Now, they say, it is moving towards the south," he said.

Some 1,200 people were killed when tropical storm Washi struck Mindanao's north coast in December last year, but Uy conceded that residents of his southern region never expected a killer storm like Bopha.

"This was the first time this happened to us, we did prepare... but we never felt anything this strong. We were taken by surprise. That is one of the reasons there were so many casualties," he said.

The first amendment to the US constitution. Freedom of religion and speech to a point, right to assemble and association

MANILA - Unchecked illegal gold mining and decades of indiscriminate logging contributed to the high death toll in the Philippines' worst natural disaster this year, officials and experts say.

Whole towns were washed away or buried by landslides when Typhoon Botha smashed into a mountainous region on the southern island of Mindanao last week, leaving 548 people confirmed dead and 827 missing.

Poverty, greed and the lure of the precious metal have long drawn thousands of prospectors to the region.

"Mining and logging may have had an effect," said civil defense chief Benito Ramos.

"The mountains have been denuded for decades, and filled with holes by our countrymen who are small-time miners. It pains me to say this, but these are the facts," he said.

The worst-hit southern town of New Bataan is both a centre of the devastated banana industry and host to some of the thousands of illegal gold-mining operations in the Mindanao province of Compostela Valley.

Geologists say the mountainous area is mostly unsafe for habitation. But numerous small, illegal or poorly regulated gold mines dot its slopes and the local government says they provide 40 percent of the province's economic output.

Much of the forest cover was also cut down long ago to make way for row upon row of bananas to supply the major markets of China, Iran and Japan.

The plantations and hopes of striking it rich have drawn hundreds of thousands of poor migrants in search of work. They settle in mountain hamlets around which poisonous mercury, used to extract gold from rock, is routinely dumped into rivers.

The deluge wrought by the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year came despite days of preparations and advance warnings including an early evacuation of vulnerable areas.

Governor Arthur Uy said 75,000 people, or one in five in the province, rely on the mines and regulation is a sore point.

The environment ministry insists it is the local officials like Uy who are required by law to issue small-scale mining permits and who must ensure people do not settle areas considered prone to landslides and flash floods.

But Uy protested that the ministry's "geohazard maps" show that 80 percent of the entire province is a danger zone.

"What shall we do? Should we all move from Compostela Valley?" he said.

Uy also said miners had resisted efforts to relocate them, preferring the danger to poverty.

"It is the risk they are willing to take, just to strike it rich. They don't want to move," he said.

Larry Heradez, a technical officer for the Philippine government's mining regulator, said people in New Bataan and nearby gold-rush areas may have known about the danger but sought refuge in the wrong areas.

"There is a problem of information dissemination. The local officials also thought they are evacuating to an area which was safe," he told AFP.

Rescuers said government shelters were among buildings swept by the floods.

In any case, all the elements of a disaster in the making were already there long before geohazard maps came into fashion, said University of the Philippines geology professor Sandra Catana.

"They (have been) living in these areas before technology came about including the awareness of geohazards in this country which started only in 1990s," she told AFP.

With Mindanao usually spared by the 20 or so storms that lash the Philippines every year, people may have become complacent and were caught unprepared by the typhoon which struck further south than usual, officials said.

But the head of a government flood control program, Mahar Lagmay, warned that weather patterns were changing.

"Previously we have had tracks in the last several decades where (storms) were moving more to the north. Now, they say, it is moving towards the south," he said.

Some 1,200 people were killed when tropical storm Washi struck Mindanao's north coast in December last year, but Uy conceded that residents of his southern region never expected a killer storm like Bopha.

"This was the first time this happened to us, we did prepare... but we never felt anything this strong. We were taken by surprise. That is one of the reasons there were so many casualties," he said.

Many of bloggers think the 1st. Amendment of the United States Constitution is out dated!Aussie, it's good reading, you should try it!

MANILA - Unchecked illegal gold mining and decades of indiscriminate logging contributed to the high death toll in the Philippines' worst natural disaster this year, officials and experts say.

Whole towns were washed away or buried by landslides when Typhoon Botha smashed into a mountainous region on the southern island of Mindanao last week, leaving 548 people confirmed dead and 827 missing.

Poverty, greed and the lure of the precious metal have long drawn thousands of prospectors to the region.

"Mining and logging may have had an effect," said civil defense chief Benito Ramos.

"The mountains have been denuded for decades, and filled with holes by our countrymen who are small-time miners. It pains me to say this, but these are the facts," he said.

The worst-hit southern town of New Bataan is both a centre of the devastated banana industry and host to some of the thousands of illegal gold-mining operations in the Mindanao province of Compostela Valley.

Geologists say the mountainous area is mostly unsafe for habitation. But numerous small, illegal or poorly regulated gold mines dot its slopes and the local government says they provide 40 percent of the province's economic output.

Much of the forest cover was also cut down long ago to make way for row upon row of bananas to supply the major markets of China, Iran and Japan.

The plantations and hopes of striking it rich have drawn hundreds of thousands of poor migrants in search of work. They settle in mountain hamlets around which poisonous mercury, used to extract gold from rock, is routinely dumped into rivers.

The deluge wrought by the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year came despite days of preparations and advance warnings including an early evacuation of vulnerable areas.

Governor Arthur Uy said 75,000 people, or one in five in the province, rely on the mines and regulation is a sore point.

The environment ministry insists it is the local officials like Uy who are required by law to issue small-scale mining permits and who must ensure people do not settle areas considered prone to landslides and flash floods.

But Uy protested that the ministry's "geohazard maps" show that 80 percent of the entire province is a danger zone.

"What shall we do? Should we all move from Compostela Valley?" he said.

Uy also said miners had resisted efforts to relocate them, preferring the danger to poverty.

"It is the risk they are willing to take, just to strike it rich. They don't want to move," he said.

Larry Heradez, a technical officer for the Philippine government's mining regulator, said people in New Bataan and nearby gold-rush areas may have known about the danger but sought refuge in the wrong areas.

"There is a problem of information dissemination. The local officials also thought they are evacuating to an area which was safe," he told AFP.

Rescuers said government shelters were among buildings swept by the floods.

In any case, all the elements of a disaster in the making were already there long before geohazard maps came into fashion, said University of the Philippines geology professor Sandra Catana.

"They (have been) living in these areas before technology came about including the awareness of geohazards in this country which started only in 1990s," she told AFP.

With Mindanao usually spared by the 20 or so storms that lash the Philippines every year, people may have become complacent and were caught unprepared by the typhoon which struck further south than usual, officials said.

But the head of a government flood control program, Mahar Lagmay, warned that weather patterns were changing.

"Previously we have had tracks in the last several decades where (storms) were moving more to the north. Now, they say, it is moving towards the south," he said.

Some 1,200 people were killed when tropical storm Washi struck Mindanao's north coast in December last year, but Uy conceded that residents of his southern region never expected a killer storm like Bopha.

"This was the first time this happened to us, we did prepare... but we never felt anything this strong. We were taken by surprise. That is one of the reasons there were so many casualties," he said.

Why thank you. I can not tell you what that means to me coming from a man of your caliber. It is always nice to be recognized for an accomplishment. Some credit has to go to you though as it has been your posts and videos that have taught me the most here, or maybe it was Levi32. Either way I am sure you have taught me a lot.

Hey Mate, I'm here, Just celebrated my daughters 7th Birthday today, also watch the Pacman v Marquez fight. It's the only thing that can take the tragedy of Pablo/Bopha off the front pages of the Filipino news websites. But I did find a few things.

COMPOSTELA VALLEY, Philippines - More than just coping with hunger and being homeless, the unending search for missing loved ones is taking its toll on those who survived Typhoon Pablo in Compostela Valley.

People converge towards every vehicle that makes a stop, hoping to get food.

Truckloads of relief goods are being sent to Compostela Valley, but this is not enough to feed more than 80 percent of the provinces' population affected by the typhoon.

There were politicians who brought relief to thousands of evacuee with food wrapped in a package with their names and faces on it.

But more than the hunger, some are just too busy looking for still missing loved ones.

Overseas worker Elisa Paglingkod went back to the Philippines from Dubai to look for her missing husband and 4 children.

Freddie Reston found the remains of his brother but other members of his family are still missing.

Bodies that will be left unclaimed will be buried in a mass grave.

Since it has been 5 days since Pablo struck and more dead bodies have yet to be recovered, the stench of decaying bodies has become unbearable.

Aside from food and water, clothes and blankets are also needed especially for children who are spending nights on the cold floors of evacuation centers. - ANC

Quoting Neapolitan:Some advice: save your response in a safe spot, and refer to it next time you catch yourself wondering why I (and many others) don't respond to most of your immature, illogical, inane, and insulting comments. That fact is, your repeated failed "Gotcha!!" attempts--like this one--long ago ceased being funny, and they're now just annoying and, frankly, more than a little pathetic. And they're certainly counterproductive, so in the hopes of protecting the rest of the forum from them, I'll leave you to yourself once more.

Take care, and enjoy the holidays!

Here is a idea don't make false and easily debunked statements and you won't have to worry about it.

Now don't be so defensive you are beginning to sound like little Anthony Watts.

A low pressure system originating in Colorado will head towards the Lower Great Lakes today. Periods of snow will begin in the southwest later this morning reaching Niagara and the Greater Toronto area (gta) to Georgian Bay later this afternoon. A coating of a centimetre or two of snow is likely from Southern Lake Huron eastwards into the gta by early this evening before it transitions into freezing rain this evening followed by rain. More significant snow is likely farther north towards Georgian Bay and across Eastern Ontario beginning this evening where 5 to locally 10 cm is likely. It is highly expected to change to freezing rain overnight and persist well into Monday. A few millimetres of freezing rain may glaze some areas across the warned regions. Motorists are urged to exercise caution during this first widespread wintery mix of precipitation. Untreated roads and sidewalks may become slippery from an accumulation of snow and freezing rain. There is a slight risk that regions along the Ottawa Valley including Ottawa may exceed 10 to 15 centimetres of snow with snowfall warning criteria being breached. Environment Canada is monitoring the development of this weather system closely and will upgrade the freezing rain warning to a winter storm warning if the snow becomes more significant.

I'm up. Actually, I haven't gone to sleep yet after my 4 pm nap. It's just below freezing here in Waterloo, Ontario. We're under a freezing rain warning from that Minnesota storm. Actually, we are expected to get an inch of snowfall today (!!!). However, it looks like a near absence of snow afterwards, although GFS and The Weather Network may be saying different things here. Our most significant snowfall so far this season both here and where I usually live in Southern central Ontario has been five inches in 3 hours, which fell in late November. This is equivalent to the maximum 24-h snowfall I observed all last winter!! I'd rarely seen a winter here without at least one storm with over 8 inches of snow. Most of it comes in the form of snowsqualls from the Great Lakes, and Colorado Lows, which seem rarer and rarer these days.

Contrary to last year, I think we will have a slightly colder than normal but snowier than normal winter in the Great Lakes and Northeast region, though I could just be wishcasting. Residual heat in the lakes might keep them unfrozen longer, allowing even more lake-effect snows. Our pattern so far has been:

I've looked at the GFS models for the next 10 days in the CONUS, the cold air was suppose to come down but latest models show a different story, I relying on my lack of expertise here, can we get a discussion if and how much of the CONUS will get a cold and white Christmas?