Connect with TRB

Estimating Freight Value Moved on TxDOT-Maintained Roadways for Investment Decision-Making

Supply chains have become more complex, and current models of freight travel rely on an inadequate modeling process initially developed for passenger vehicle forecasting. Modeling the logistics of freight is inadequately capturing the linkages involving shippers, carriers, third-party logistics agents, and customers as well varying sizes, shapes, volumes, value, and weights of the commodities being moved. Unfortunately, modelers are limited by the availability of sufficiently disaggregate data. Secondary or public data is easily accessible, but is available only in highly aggregate form and insufficient for model development. Primary data, which is collected by third-party firms, would be ideal but is proprietary in nature, as clients are unwilling to share information because of the competitive nature of the business. The research team will examine commodity flow estimation methods to provide the best assessment of the value of freight moved along Texas corridors. The project will examine commodity flow estimates from the various private and public sector databases and identify problems and limitations of each database. The research team will examine flow patterns for commodities and test different modeling approaches to compare with estimates from the existing databases. The research team will prepare through this project for subsequent projects relating to statewide commodity flow estimation and development of future scenarios, and recommend what modifications need to be made to existing databases to better reflect Texas commodity flows and the value of freight moved on Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) maintained roadways.