2018 Outlook: NAFTA – January or Bust

The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations, starting January 23, will be one of the major trade policy events for 2018. Previous rounds give little confidence that a breakthrough is possible. Without significant progress the Trump administration may choose to issue a termination notice ahead of the informal end-March deadline for talks. The stakes are high. The U.S. trade-in-goods deficit (the administration’s main policy metric) rose 8% on a year earlier in the 12 months to November 30 on a year earlier. That’s been due in part to a 13% rise in capital goods imports in November that will be ...