COVID-19 Death Data in England – Update 17th April

April 17, 2020

Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan

Summary

Consistent with previous analyses, the data continues to flatline consistent with hitting the peak* (the peak day of deaths was the 8th of April). The structure of the data is similar across the regions.

NHS England releases data at 2 pm each day and reports daily count up to the previous day as well as a total figure. We wrote about the problems with reconciling the different data here:

Today’s reported figure is 738 deaths in hospitals in England

These deaths are distributed across the following days:

and are distributed by region as follows:

The figure shows the reporting of deaths by NHS England underestimate those reported by ONS (by approx 750 deaths) – One of the reasons for this is NHS England’s data does not include deaths reported outside hospitals.

Daily reports generally add more to the previous two days (up to a maximum 300 deaths), and can add back to the previous week’s counts (the grey shaded area in figure 2).

*Inaccuracies in the data can give rise to considerable uncertainties. Over the Easter weekend inaccuracies could have been amplified due to late reporting.

Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.