The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!

As I mentioned last week, at
this point of the fantasy season, if you have a 3-4 or 2-5 record
you face serious personnel decisions regarding players who are under-performing
to projection. There are cases where these disappointing totals
have to do with unrealistic forecasting. But let’s talk about
the cases where the projections seemed reasonable, but the player
hasn’t performed up to par. Last week I showed examples for
runners and quarterbacks that faced a temporary obstacle such as
an early season injury or difficult schedule. I also pointed out
that there are teams every year that start poorly and play much
better football as the year progresses.

As this change happens with teams, so it goes with players. This
means fantasy performance through week 6 may look like the fate
of one’s season is etched in stone, but it is not the case.
Anecdotal evidence suggests between week 6 and the end of the
season that there are a significant number of players (Second
Half Wonders) who far out perform their early production: Lee
Evans, Hines Ward, Mike Furrey, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker
were all receivers who turned it up a notch down the stretch.
This week I will give you a historical stats perspective of the
shift in rankings between week 6 and the end of the season for
receivers and tight ends. The rankings will be based Crank
Score rather than fantasy points per game, because I think
it makes more sense to look for the players who are consistently
playing better each week (Roy Williams from 2006) and not just
having two huge games, then going quiet (Chad Johnson from 2006).

Movement of Top 20 WRs by Crank Score At
Season’s End Vs. Week 6

WR Movement

RB

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

1

2

2

0

1

11

2

20

6

22

-1

0

3

11

-2

2

1

5

4

9

6

-2

1

-1

5

-4

4

3

-2

-4

6

13

-2

6

8

19

7

9

-2

4

14

42

8

0

4

1

16

34

9

19

18

36

-2

10

10

23

-3

3

34

0

11

10

20

7

37

7

12

3

4

8

3

-5

13

5

-2

53

10

0

14

-12

-12

26

-5

7

15

21

18

19

12

-11

16

-12

-10

0

-10

-7

17

3

37

30

19

82

18

-2

10

3

19

12

19

22

21

-9

24

15

20

-15

-6

-1

2

-5

21

-10

-9

30

-13

47

22

-12

16

10

12

24

23

30

2

7

10

-18

24

3

-6

-20

-14

-13

25

4

4

24

-5

1

26

4

-9

13

30

-20

27

-21

-3

10

-14

38

28

-5

4

-1

-3

9

29

-22

22

0

6

-5

30

4

-4

-24

17

103

31

-6

-9

-24

-14

35

32

96

33

3

0

39

33

14

-12

3

95

104

34

4

5

-17

9

5

35

19

24

-21

-16

22

36

-12

-6

14

-20

3

Avg

(+)

30.50%

25.00%

25.00%

33.33%

36.11%

30.00%

(-)

19.40%

2.70%

13.80%

13.80%

8.30%

11.60%

This chart shows the amount of up and down movement within the
receiver rankings between week 6 and the end of the season. The
spots highlighted in green show an improvement of at least 30%
and the red highlight demonstrates a decrease of at least the
same amount. Over a five-year period, 30% of the top-36 Crank
Score WRs at the end of the season consist of players who experienced
a significant upturn in production between weeks six and the end
of the year. In contrast, 12% of the receivers will experience
a significant drop off in productivity. With these figures, one
could reasonably project that there will be twelve receivers who
go on a tear and four pass catchers who take a significant nosedive
in 2007.

Who could some of these receivers be in 2007? One way to make
a reasonable guess is to examine the individual players who experienced
this significant movement in production to see if we can accurately
profile their situation then determine which of this year’s
group of receivers fit these profiles.

The first clear, profile category for receivers has to do with
injury. The following receivers in the past five years, demonstrated
a huge upturn in production because they either came back from
injury, replaced and injured starter, or were on the receiving
end of passes from a QB replacing an injured starter:

Thatís quite a list of players. In 2007, there are a few receivers
who could experience an upswing in production due to injury. Topping
that list is Marvin
Harrison who has missed a game due to a bruised knee and has
been second banana to Reggie Wayne. The veteran still has great
skills and with a loaded Indy offense, I find it difficult to
believe that he wonít get hisóand soon. In the last three seasons
between week 6 and the seasonís end, Harrison has moved up 6,
18, and 11 spots, respectively. You canít quite say bank on it,
but I like those odds, donít you? Anquan
Boldin has missed time due to injury, but has put up decent
numbers upon his return. If Warner can stay on the field, I like
Boldinís chances as well. Expect the same from Santonio
Holmes, Mark
Clayton, and Andre
Johnson. All three either entered the season with an injury
(Clayton) or dealt with a minor problem that cost them at least
one game (Holmes and Johnson). The one perennial, second-half
receiver who I donít believe will perform this feat again is Darrell
Jackson. I was high on Jackson to begin the year, but I donít
ever remember him looking this bad prior to getting hurt.

As for receivers who underachieved due to an injured starting
quarterback, Torry
Holt, Lee
Evans, and Chris
Chambers are three receivers who should benefit from a more
stabilized offense in the second half of the season. Holt hasnít
been bad, but not the predictably elite performer weíve call come
to expect. With Bulger and Jackson returning to the lineup, Holt
should have an easier time. If you can get him a little cheaper
than normal, Iíd take the risk to acquire him. Evans, after Darrell
Jackson, has been the most predictable second-half stud at his
position. Was last week a coming out party for Evans? The Bills
receiver did move up 19 spots in 2006 and 30 spots in 2004. I
think Trent Edwards will continue to improve, so look for Evans
to have some better games. Still, Iím less enthused about Evans
compared to Holt and the Chargers new acquisition, Chris Chambers.
The former Dolphin has arrived to the west coast familiar with
Norv Turnerís systemóan offensive philosophy that was a pretty
good fit for Chambers while they were together in Miamióand a
quarterback who likes to throw the deep ball. Pair these two factors
with LaDainian Tomlinson, and Chambers could be primed for an
excellent second half. It may take a few games, but if you can
weather the adjustment you could be rewarded as the fantasy playoffs
arrive.

Movement of Top 12 TEs by Crank Score At
Season’s End Vs. Week 6

TE Movement

QB

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

1

0

1

6

7

11

2

7

-1

10

1

8

3

1

1

25

3

2

4

1

3

9

1

4

5

-3

51

-5

9

11

6

6

2

4

19

22

7

-4

-1

12

51

2

8

13

-3

10

62

59

9

54

3

2

30

6

10

-4

5

74

5

30

11

-3

-2

4

2

8

12

-6

-2

-6

-2

13

(+)

33.00%

16.67%

75.00%

58.30%

83.00%

53.20%

(-)

25.00%

0.00%

16.67%

0.00%

0.00%

8.53%

As with the other charts, this one shows the amount of movement
up or down the tight end rankings between week 6 and the end of
the season. The spots highlighted in green show an improvement
of at least 30% and the red highlight demonstrates a decrease
of at least the same amount. Over a five-year period, 53% of the
top-12 Crank Score TEs at the end of the season consist of players
who experienced a significant upturn in production between weeks
six and the end of the year. In contrast, 8% of the tight ends
will experience a significant drop off in productivity. With these
figures, one could reasonably project that there will be six tight
ends who go on a tear and nearly two who take a significant nosedive
in 2007.

In contrast to the other positions, there is generally a smaller
gap in production between TEs in rankings after the top 2-3 players.
Many of the tight ends I saw from this 5-year tally who shot up
the charts were the ďknown namesĒ most owners drafted
this summer. So the main lesson here is to hold onto these guys.
Of course, Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap arenít guys you ditch.
Heap generally misses time each year, but when he returns to the
lineup, heís a great start. Vernon Davis could very well
be a candidate to make this type of jump if he returns soon enough.
Well over half the tight ends who move within the top 12 never
left it, either. As usual, the tight end position is not that
dynamic, save the top 2-3 players and we generally know who these
players are year to year (Gates, Gonzalez, and rotating among
Shockey, Heap, and Witten). If you like numbers without a logical
explanation, you can claim thereís reason to anticipate
little movement this year because in previous odd years, there
was less movement than previous even seasons. Not that I think
thatís a good explanation, but if you want something to
hang onto then knock yourself out.

Rookie Scouting Portfolio Samples:
The Dolphins have lost Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, two major
offensive assets, in one week. This means two younger players
get an opportunity for additional playing time—Derek Hagan
and Lorenzo Booker. Both are talents, but at different points
in their NFL careers. Hagan has earned his opportunity with the
coaching staff, but he’s not the great physical talent who
will wow you like Ted Ginn, Jr. On the other hand, his athletic
ability is underrated.

Booker is a terrific athlete, but he hasn’t earned anything
but a chance to be active with the team. Jesse Chatman is a Cam
Cameron favorite, but Booker has enough explosiveness to earn
more if he makes the most of his opportunities on the field in
key situations. In other words, he’s a guy who may not appear
to have much going for him as a fantasy player in 2007, but that
can change as quickly as he can change direction in the open field.

Here are sample checklists for both Hagan
and Booker for your consideration.