Trump Continues to Lead in South Carolina

The first post-New Hampshire poll from South Carolina shows that Trump continues to lead comfortably. He leads Cruz 36-20%, while Rubio (15%), Bush (11%), Kasich (9%), and Carson (5%) divvy up the rest. That represents a slight improvement of a few points for Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich over the last poll from this same outfit. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins in almost every category. Once again, his support is spread very evenly across all different age and ideological groups. He leads Kasich among moderates by 19 points, beats Rubio among “somewhat” conservative voters by 17 points, and he even ties Cruz among the “very conservative” at 33%. In other words, Trump outdoes or matches his rivals where they are strongest, and then trounces them everywhere else. Among “somewhat” conservative and moderate Republicans, he receives more support than his next two strongest opponents combined, and those two groups account for half of the respondents.

Perhaps the most important factor explaining Trump’s success in South Carolina is that he leads Cruz even among evangelicals, and then runs away with over 40% of the non-evangelical vote. Evangelicals make up 65% of the respondents in the poll, and Trump gets roughly a third of them while Cruz gets less than a quarter. Notably, there is not much regional difference in Trump’s support: he’s at 34% in the Midlands, 37% Upstate, and 36% in the Lowcountry. He remains the dominant candidate in the state just over a week before the primary on the 20th. That is consistent with the South Carolina polling we’ve been seeing for the last few months. Except for the brief Carson surge that threatened Trump’s lead in the fall, he has been well out in front of the rest of the field at least since August, and it doesn’t seem likely to change.

Because South Carolina has a winner-takes-most/winner-take-all by district system for delegate allocation, Trump’s broad support distributed across the entire state makes it entirely possible that he could sweep all of the state’s fifty delegates. That would clearly separate him from the other candidates in the delegate count, and it would put him in a very good position going into the Nevada caucuses (2/23) and Super Tuesday on March 1. If Trump is going to be stopped somewhere, it isn’t going to be in South Carolina.

The Democrats allow party and elected officials from a state to have a say in selecting the nominee, and Clinton had a lot of support from party leaders in New Hampshire. The “superdelegates” effectively cancelled out Sanders’ overwhelming advantage in the popular vote. In principle, this mechanism allows party leaders to break a tie between two candidates that are very close in the overall delegate count, but in practice it can be a way to counter or block the preferences of primary voters.

If Trump is going to be stopped somewhere, it isn’t going to be in South Carolina.

The better analytical conclusion would seem to be,

If Trump is going to be stopped somewhere, it will have to be in South Carolina.

If Trump either/or 1) Outperforms his polling average in SC by a similar margin to his performance in NH; 2) Wins across districts to lock up disproportionately many delegates; it becomes hard to see how he can be stopped at all in any of the next upcoming states. “Momentum” in politics is generally as illusory as it is in sports, but the electoral calendar and map seem poised to offer a chance for Trump support to snowball if he can notch a significant win in South Carolina.

I always asssumed that is Trump took 3 of the first four states, he will be a favorite for the nomination and only Cruz can stop him. Otherwise the three establishment candidates will continue there murder suicide pact until Florida the ‘winning’ loser of three on March 15th.

Otherwise, the MSM will countless hours on the SC Primary night saying how great the third place winner, Rubio, Jeb! or Kaisch, performed that night with 16% of the vote and earning 2 total delegates.

Re: Daniel Larison “The Democrats allow party and elected officials from a state to have a say in selecting the nominee”

Exactly. Moreover, Congresswomen Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chair of the Democratic National Committee and the party minions hopping to plug in a Hillary run Leviathan are running interference big time to wire the nomination to Clinton.

There is a reasonable argument that Bernie Sanders can’t fight and win against a cronied-up Daly style City Hall Democratic Machine. Because no matter how many primary votes Bernie collects, the ruthless Schultz and her compliant soldiers will take him down via procedural chicanery.

P.S. this election’s political milieu, saturated with hackdom really suggests to me that you can stick a fork in America. Because with “leadership” like this – it’s definitely cooked.

@ SteveM – “Re: Daniel Larison “The Democrats allow party and elected officials from a state to have a say in selecting the nominee”

Exactly. Moreover, Congresswomen Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chair of the Democratic National Committee and the party minions hopping to plug in a Hillary run Leviathan are running interference big time to wire the nomination to Clinton.”

You can say that again.

The DNC has just (i.e. today) rolled back the Obama ban on accepting donations from federal government lobbyists and PACs.

I shudder to consider Trump as Pres, but I’m warming to the idea of him as GOP nominee – but only for this reason: Maybe, finally, after all these years, (and a few ignored prophets’ warnings), thinking and principled and devoted Christians (but especially my tribe the evangelicals) will stop considering the GOP as their political wagon to “reviving” America spiritually…

And @ SteveM, who said, “P.S. this election’s political milieu, saturated with hackdom really suggests to me that you can stick a fork in America. Because with “leadership” like this – it’s definitely cooked.”
I concur with your opinion – we are definitely at a new low…

IMHO, the thing to watch is how high Trump gets, if he breaks beyond that 33-35% range for his future prospects of capturing the nomination. SC is billed in the press as some great Evangelical outlier in terms of who it votes for, but it really tends to be quite establishment-oriented. The low country (Charleston, MB) tends to be the largest establishment nest, and the upstate trends more Conservative with the Midlands probably somewhere in the middle (sorry).

Rubio + Bush + Kasich = 35%, so until the establishment knuckleheads place duty above country, they’re in a stalemate and will just siphon votes from state to state. I think you could argue that a Cruz-out scenario would give more to those guys than the Donald, but one-on-one primaries aren’t quite so common.

Bush does not surprise me. He’s got a “solid” shot at a primary best third place finish. *Sigh* I’ve never seen anyone win anything being the 3rd, 4th, and 5th loser up. Kasich has no name recognition here. Unless he or Rubio does something amazing in a debate, it looks like Trump will prevail here too.

Trump’s polling in SC has consistently been so high for months that I figured he would win there unless he totally melted down in IA/NH. NV is more likely to be his undoing — it’s a caucus state, so the party establishment can manipulate the votes much more easily (see also, e.g., the vote trends for Rubio in IA, which showed characteristics of manipulation). Whoever of Bush/Rubio performs better in SC will most likely be the NV winner, with Trump doing no better than second, possibly third.

As repugnant as Donald Trump is in personality and rhetoric, as ridiculous it would be for him to be considered a serious candidate for President in any reasonable campaign season, this is not a reasonable campaign season. For all his angry and contemptuous talk about Muslims, terrorists, immigrants and a host of shibboleths in America’s political culture, Donald Trump seems to be the only candidate in the Republican field who is disinclined to use the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the United States to kill and maim the people of the world. The most “moderate” of the remaining Republican contenders is John Kasich, and he is talking about “punching Russia in the nose” – because they dare to put their troops in the historically Russian territories of the Ukraine. Donald Trump says he wants to talk to Vladimir Putin – that Putin is a man is a leader he can deal with – that he would rather see Russia put troops into Syria to fight ISIS than do it ourselves.

So, who is the greater threat to the peace and security of the United States, the peace and security of the world? The man who talks and exhibits the personality of a schoolyard bully, and yet expresses no inclination to act like one, or the many men who behave like normal, civil politicians, but express the willingness to place the United States on the brink of warfare with nuclear Russia?

Why don’t the Republicans put up an alternative to Donald Trump who can at least match him in sanity as they exceed him in civility? Then they might not have to worry about him running away with the Presidential primaries.

“…thinking and principled and devoted Christians (but especially my tribe the evangelicals) will stop considering the GOP as their political wagon to “reviving” America spiritually…”

But if Clinton’s the nominee as presumed gamed, her own anti-evangelical policy history still won’t be forgotten. The grand old lady hasn’t backed off from her nineties Clinton co-presidency of vilifying homeschoolers as child abusers, going so far as to have her co-conspirators in state government force turn over of home schooling association member lists to state child abuse authorities for inclusion as abusers. We were there and haven’t forgotten her demonization. The old leopard’s coat may have lost its sheen, but we see its spots haven’t changed.

Every time I consider the possibility of Trump as president and shudder at the thought of his presence in the newspapers and on television on a daily basis for years, I remember his remarks on the trillions of dollars wasted by Bush 43 and by Obama in failed wars and how he wished those trillions had been spent in the United States. Compare that to the rest of the field, all apparently anxious to get started on the next war with somebody. If the price of peace is a buffoon in the oval office, so be it.

“The only reason that this idea of Trump-as-realist is even being entertained at all is that every other presidential candidate is arguably even more irresponsible and reckless on foreign policy than Trump is. Maybe one could make the argument that Trump is the least awful candidate for realists, but that’s not saying a lot.”

(2) On Feb. 13th William Dalton wrote:

“For all his angry and contemptuous talk about Muslims, terrorists, immigrants and a host of shibboleths in America’s political culture, Donald Trump seems to be the only candidate in the Republican field who is disinclined to use the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the United States to kill and maim the people of the world…Who is the greater threat to the peace and security of the United States, the peace and security of the world? The man who talks and exhibits the personality of a schoolyard bully, and yet expresses no inclination to act like one, or the many men who behave like normal, civil politicians, but express the willingness to place the United States on the brink of warfare with nuclear Russia?”

“Every time I consider the possibility of Trump as president and shudder at the thought of his presence in the newspapers and on television on a daily basis for years, I remember his remarks on the trillions of dollars wasted by Bush 43 and by Obama in failed wars and how he wished those trillions had been spent in the United States. Compare that to the rest of the field, all apparently anxious to get started on the next war with somebody. If the price of peace is a buffoon in the oval office, so be it.”

Trump may be the least bad candidate running this year. My DNA cries out for a ‘responsible adult’ but all of the ones who should fill that role, like Kasich, welcome Somali refugees with open arms and without screening, want to invade various and sundry countries that have started no quarrel with us, and who have nothing to say when Carrier moves 1,400 high-paying jobs from Indianapolis to Mexico, and this after reporting big profits and handing out a CEO pay raise in the millions.
If it’s one of the usual suspects vs. Bernie, I may have to ignore the socialist-gnostic drivel and vote for him as being a better choice than anyone the GOP will offer. (Speaking of Bernie, but ironic would it be for Hillary to get the nomination after losing ‘the popular vote’ in the primaries to a ‘Democratic Socialist’ from Vermont? )
The least-bad options this year may well be Trump and Bernie, and unless something dramatic happens to change my thinking, that’s the choice I hope to have in November.

It’s a genuine relief to see several commenters here actually focusing on one of Donald Trump’s actual advantages to the nation. Yes, yes, I find him personally objectionable as well. But he is indeed the only R candidate disinclined to blow up much of the world.

The man’s actual words bear repeating:

“We’ve spent $4 trillion trying to topple various people that, frankly, if they were there and if we could have spent that $4 trillion in the United States to fix our roads, our bridges, and all of the other problems — our airports and all the other problems we have — we would have been a lot better off, I can tell you that right now.

“We have done a tremendous disservice not only to the Middle East — we’ve done a tremendous disservice to humanity. The people that have been killed, the people that have been wiped away — and for what? It’s not like we had victory. It’s a mess. The Middle East is totally destabilized, a total and complete mess. I wish we had the 4 trillion dollars or 5 trillion dollars. I wish it were spent right here in the United States on schools, hospitals, roads, airports, and everything else that are all falling apart!”

There s very little, if anything I find personally objectionable about Mr. Trump.

There are a lot of accusations that make me wince. But upon examination, it almost never pans out the way it was described and on the rare occasions that it bares some resemblance, the issue is so minor, it just does not matter.

I’d like to congratulate Trump’s supporters on their candidate’s performance tonight. I really didn’t think he had it in him. I can see why some of you might believe he’d jump on a grenade for the country. Tonight belonged to Trump and Kasich, the others were leading from behind. Bush was both painfully good and effortlessly bad at the same time, the poor guy. Cruz showed some heart, but everything pales next to Trump’s laurels. Enjoy the victory!

I fear tonight may represent the beginning of the end for Trump. That he would basically reiterate moveon.org’s mantra of “Bush lied, people died” in South Carolina will spell his doom; it will replayed ad nauseam throughout the Fox New/talk radio landscape.

It’s a pity, too, because Trump, although at times a total buffoon, is the closet thing to Pitchfork Pat we’ll ever see again.

“That he would basically reiterate moveon.org’s mantra of “Bush lied, people died” in South Carolina will spell his doom; it will replayed ad nauseam throughout the Fox New/talk radio landscape.”

Maybe. But perhaps, one mistakes politeness for where people are at. They may not embrace the critique, But what is clear is that southern hospitality ma be a polite to your face, but harbor something else.

I love the Bush’s but, I am hard pressed to defend policies that at the time were dubious and now have come back to haunt us. A southerner ma not say that to your face.

Nope the southerner may smile, pat one on the back and you depart, watch you with a hint of sadness because he or she knows,

“It ain’t what it was.”

It’s unclear how many of their sons and daughters they are willing to sign up for more ours overseas if the gain is zero.

Trump is leading because the R base has determined to move away from the noble lies of multiculturalism and the economic lies of globalism and towards economic nationalism and a unified identity. Trump owns the economic nationalism message and it is ascendant. The establishment, who have been selling out the people in favor of globalist donors for years, are getting their cumeuppence. It is about time.

The much fantasized establishment consolidation and rebellion against Trump will never materialize. Time to get used to the future which is improving the lives of Americans by focusing on the betterment of Americans not people in foreign countries no matter how nice they may be. If the Germans want Syrian refugees, let them have them, but don’t bring them to America. If Americans want jobs on construction sites and in food processing plants, make sure that those jobs aren’t going to people illegally present in this country.

And start thinning out the herds of useless propagandists located in government HR departments and public college campuses touting the noble lies of multiculturalism. Multiculturalism is a bad thing not a good thing. Time to start warning people against it. Trump seem well suited for such a task.

I rarely agree with EliteComminc but I think he’s right…the audience may be polite not love Trump’s tone but I feel that the sentiment may land. I have to say, no candidate from either party has dared to express so nakedly and clearly that the Iraq war was both a colossal blunder and colossal bad investment.

And Bush’s response is an equally naked expression of the personal animus and familial loyalty that got us into that situation. It’s why we don’t want the same families in the office (sorry Hillary, but it’s true).

I mean…Trump brings up my favorite point of the whole campaign:

What if we’d spent that money on infrastructure? I mean WHAT IF WE DID? Think about it.

@ “J” who says: “I fear tonight may represent the beginning of the end for Trump. That he would basically reiterate moveon.org’s mantra of ‘Bush lied, people died’ in South Carolina will spell his doom; it will replayed ad nauseam throughout the Fox News/talk radio landscape.”

“J,” don’t sell South Carolinians short. South Carolinians are like the rest of us – they’re tired of being lied to.

Read Donald Trump’s words. The test is this: Is there anything that Trump said about Iraq last night that is not the 100%, unvarnished TRUTH?

Trump:

“Obviously, the war in Iraq was a big, fat mistake. All right? Now, you can take it any way you want, and it took — it took Jeb Bush, if you remember at the beginning of his announcement, when he announced for president, it took him five days.

“He went back, it was a mistake, it wasn’t a mistake. It took him five days before his people told him what to say, and he ultimately said, ‘It was a mistake.’

”The war in Iraq, we spent $2 trillion, thousands of lives, we don’t even have it. Iran has taken over Iraq, with the second-largest oil reserves in the world.

“Obviously, it was a mistake…George Bush made a mistake. We can make mistakes. But that one was a beauty. We should have never been in Iraq. We have destabilized the Middle East…

“I want to tell you. They lied. They said there were weapons of mass destruction, there were none. And they knew there were none. There were no weapons of mass destruction…”

We’ve got to go with the truth, J. And last night Trump told the truth about the Iraq War.

OK that Trump calls the Iraq War a “mistake,” even though it was much worse than that. But, as with his new-found love for the working class, there is no evidence that Trump opposed the invasion of Iraq before it started. All we have is Trump’s claim that he did so, and his current claim that he would be less bellicose than his opponents. But there is no record to back up either one of those claims. And his personal bellicose posturing makes one wonder just how sincere they are.

@philadelphialawyer
I’m no fan of Trump, have to admit I have a personal antipathy, but whether he was for it or opposed it or whatever back in the day…he is the ONLY ONE willing to speak the truth now.

South Carolina has a been terrible in GOP Presidential Primaries for a long time, at least from our Pat Buchanan/American Conservative perspective.

South Carolina has went for the likes of John McInsane, Mike the Huckster Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and the Bush family clan – it’s Neo Conservative, Christian Zionist now with a lot of nouve riche PC Lib North Eastern transplants. Regular good ol boy Southerners in South Carolina who don’t get all patriotic about these Neo Con wars against secular Arabs or the Russians Serbs, all they really see is some PC Lib Indian governor taking down the Confederate Battle flag and working to make Charleston SC a slightly Southern version of Aspen Colorado.