Better performance forecast for banks in H2

HÀ NỘI — Business performance at commercial banks is forecast to continue its upwards trend this quarter after making some improvements in the first half of the year, a State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) survey said.

Under the business sentiment survey covering domestic and foreign banks in Việt Nam released last week, banks also expect better results for the whole of 2016.

A total of 86.5 per cent of the respondents expected better results in 2016 than last year, of which 29 per cent anticipated ‘significant improvement’.

Compared with the previous survey conducted in the first quarter, banks were also more optimistic about credit growth this year.

Banks forecast that the banking system’s credit growth would increase to 20.42 per cent this year, roughly 3 per cent higher than the Government’s target, thanks to stronger credit demand and better business conditions. In the survey in January, credit growth was expected at 20.1 per cent.

The country has targeted credit growth of 18 per cent this year, up from 17.26 per cent in 2015, following growth last year that was its strongest since 2007 thanks to the economic growth.

The respondents also anticipated capital mobilisation of the entire banking system this year would reach 17.57 per cent, of which the rising rate for deposits in the đồng is raised to 19.1 per cent from 18.4 per cent in the previous survey but deposits in the US dollar is lower to minus 0.09 per cent from previous 6.96 per cent.

The central bank has gradually cut or scrapped ceiling rates on dollar deposits to combat dollar hoarding and even abolished some dollar lending, but it recently resumed short-term loans in foreign currencies to support economic growth.

Liquidity in both đồng and dollar is also expected to be good in the second half of the year.

With optimism about the economic growth prospect and the exciting return of the finance and banking system in 2016, banks also anticipated the industry’s labour market would see positive changes next months.

According to the survey, it is expected that 42.4 per cent of the respondents would increase their recruitment in the third quarter while 57 per cent of them is expected more recruitment in the whole year of 2016.

In the second quarter, 28.2 per cent of the respondents reported that they had more employment.- VNS