A reasonable case could be made that the end of the 2016 New York Mets season was the beginning of the end of this current group's run. With the anticipated opt- out of star left fielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets were set to find a way to replace not only his offensive production, but the fear he imposed on the Mets opponents and their pitchers. In addition, there were concerns over the Mets biggest strength, their starting rotation, as four of their stud starting pitchers have all had an operation since their last game in the major leagues. Baseball fans and the media, in some cases, have a very short memory. While the probability of Cespedes opting out was a fore gone conclusion, it was just as clear that the Mets would not outbid another team that was willing to give Yoenis a five year deal north of $150 million. The Mets off season started out by preparing for life without Cespedes. The Mets picked up their 2017 team options on outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes. They also remained interested in bringing back second baseman Neil Walker, who was coming off a solid offensive season which saw him hit .283 with 23 home runs despite missing the last month and a half of the season due to a back problem. The idea was even floated that the Mets would be interested in bringing in free agent outfielder Jose Bautista (was a Mets player for a couple of hours in 2004) as a possible alternative if Cespedes signed elsewhere. It turned out Cespedes did re-sign with the Mets. But please do not act like this was completely expected to happen. The Mets had not given out a $100 million contract to a player since David Wright signed his 8 year, $138 million contract extension after the 2012 season and had signed just three players in their entire team history to deals over $100 million total. In addition, New York gave the $17.2 million qualifying offer to second baseman Walker, who accepted it. The Mets then also brought back relievers Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas, the former a dominant member of the Mets relief core in 2016 and the latter a surprising run during the month of September of last season, a 2.08 earned run average in just over 17 innings pitched. Added to the returns of Cespedes, Walker, Bruce, and Reyes, the Mets have taken on the San Francisco Giants model of "keeping the band together." Outside of Cespedes being injured, the only thing that could derail this team is a significant injury to their starting rotation, mainly right hander Noah Syndergaard. In fact, a case could be made that the Mets may not be able to recover from a Syndergaard injury in the same way they would one with Cespedes. Syndergaard is coming off a 14-9 season, one in which he finished with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.149 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), a 2.29 fielding independent pitching, a 158 ERA+ and 218 strikeouts in just under 184 innings pitched. Jacob deGrom was limited to 24 starts last season but seems to be back to full strength. Matt Harvey went just 4-10 last season with a 4.86 ERA before having surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Two pitchers who were godsends to the Mets rotation last season are back, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. I intentionally left out a starting pitcher and I did that for a reason. Left hander Steven Matz cannot be counted on to be a consistent part of this team's rotation. As far back as can be possibly remembered, Matz has not made it a month without complaining about some ailment in his left arm. It is not a bold prediction to predict that Matz will never make 28, let alone 30, starts in a big league season. Zack Wheeler seems ready to return to the big leagues after missing the past two recovering from Tommy John surgery. Wheeler has to be in consideration for a rotation spot, especially after the latest Matz injury, but the Mets are planning on curtailing his innings to as low as 100 for this season. It is quite possible that the Mets use him as a long reliever to start this season, possibly being a two inning middle reliever. There was a left handed pitcher for the Cleveland Indians who took to that role pretty well last season, Andrew Miller.The fact that there is less than a week away from the start of the season and Major League Baseball has not ruled on a suspension for Mets closer Jeurys Familia really has only one logical solution. Maybe baseball is not going to suspend the Mets righty for his domestic violence incident earlier this off season. If they do now, they look very silly since MLB had the entire off season to do something about it. I understand that Familia did pitch for the Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic, but that has been over for quite a couple of days now. If (when) a suspension is announced, I would like to hear the reason the announcement was not made immediately after the WBC was concluded. (Update- Familia has been given a suspension of 15 games to start the season, announced on March 29.)With Familia starting the season on the restricted list, Addison Reed will be the closer. Trying not to look at spring training stats, Reed has not pitched well. But he is coming off a great season in 2016 where he pitched to a 1.97 ERA in 80 games while striking out 91 batters in just less than 78 innings pitched. Salas, Blevins and right hander Hansel Robles will follow Reed with left handed pitcher Josh Smoker earning the role as additional lefty specialist. The last two spots (until Familia returns) can go to Wheeler and right hander Rafael Montero. However, they could also go right hander Paul Sewald, or even to Lugo is Matz is somehow able to start the season in the Mets rotation. (Update- Matz will in fact start the season on the disabled list with Wheeler getting a spot in the rotation, The final spot bullpen spot is likely to come down to Lugo and Montero.)The Mets will have a little bit of a logjam in the outfield with Cespedes, Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto all being on the opening day roster. The injury to Juan Lagares makes Conforto a little bit more of a fit, though it would be tough to see the latter getting enough playing time that warrants him remaining in the big leagues. But, Conforto can change that as there is always room in the lineup for a player that hits. Lucas Duda comes back from a back injury and is expected to play first base against right hand pitchers, with Wilmer Flores playing against left handers. Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera are back to help form the Mets middle infield, with Reyes playing third base as long as Wright remains out. The biggest question remains at catcher where the Mets are putting all their faith in Travid d'Arnaud. This will be a make or break season for the one time Mets prospect, where the Mets chose not to upgrade the position both at the July 31st trade deadline and this past off season. It is likely that backup catcher Rene Rivera will be Syndergaard's primary catcher, which starts opening day. The Mets lineup should look like this: Reyes 3B, Cabrera SS, Cespedes LF, Granderson CF, Walker 2B, Bruce RF, Duda 1B, d'Arnaud C. The Mets bench will consist of Conforto, Flores, TJ Rivera, Ty Kelly, and Rivera. The Mets possess a couple of top prospects that expect to be regulars for the team as soon as next season. Shortstop Amed Rosario hit .324 last season in High- A and Double- A and should hit for a little bit more power as he adds some more muscle mass. First baseman Dominic Smith hit .302 and drove in 91 runs as a 21 year- old playing in Double- A. Left handed pitcher Thomas Szapucki has Billy Wagner- like stuff and should shoot up the minor league chain in no time. Right hander Justin Dunn should be on his way up in a similar fashion as well. Left hander PJ Conlon does not get a lot of attention because he does not throw hard. He does, however, have very good control and command of his stuff and should down the road be in the discussion when talking about the Mets young future starters. Gsellman and Rivera qualify as rookies and will both be part of the Mets opening day roster. I think the National League East division will come down to the wire this season, something that has not happened since the years of 2007 and 2008. The Phillies had the division wrapped up early in 2009-2011 and the same can be said about the Nationals in 2012, 2014, and 2016, the Braves in 2013, and the Mets in 2015 though some races stood out a little bit longer than others. Vegas has the Mets over/ under number at 89.5 and I am taking the over, slightly, putting the Mets at 92-70, first place in the National League East division, two games ahead of the Washington Nationals. This race will go down to the last series of the season.

The discussion continues with the 30-1 MLB countdown previews. To this point, 18 of the 30 MLB teams have been previewed and based off the results, many of the teams are not separated by many games at all. In fact, 17 of the 30 teams, according to this particular countdown, will finish with a winning record with an 18th team finishing at an exactly .500 (winning percentage). (I totaled up the total amount of games played in a season and broke them down, distributing the total of wins and losses to all 30 teams. In other words, if you total the amount of wins for every team I preview throughout the 30-1 MLB countdown, it will equal the amount of losses tallied up by doing the same.) The bottom line is that the parity of the game of baseball has put many teams in the same boat. Most have a chance to compete and their success and failures will be determined by intangibles including clubhouse commendatory and injuries. Because of that, all we have to use to determine records before the season starts is the composition of the respective rosters, the direction the team is going and the prospects of what young players and healthy returnees are set up to help. My opinion will be different than yours and my opinion will be different than digitally generated previews. The Toronto Blue Jays made it to the postseason for the first time since their last World Series victory in 1993. The past 22 seasons have been a struggle but the Blue Jays had managed to finish with a .500 or better record in 10 of those 22 campaigns. The building of what has become a championship caliber offensive team started in the 2012-2013 off season, when the Jays added shortstop Jose Reyes, along with pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle- none of whom are currently part of the ball club. However, after the emergence of late blooming power hitters Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, this was the first sign that the Blue Jays were looking to base their team on offense, a formula that has proven to be a wise one. This past off season, the Blue Jays made a trade that did not involve a lot of though behind it. It, quite frankly, did not need to. The Oakland Athletics dangled All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson as if he could be had. General manager Alex Anthopoulos (who has since left the organization) jumped on the opportunity. In fact, the Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest heists in years getting Donaldson from the Athletics in exchange for four players, one of whom was removed from their 40 man roster (Sean Nolin) and another was traded away to the White Sox (Brett Lawrie). Having Reyes allowed the Jays to make the deal with the Colorado Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki right before the 2015 trading deadline. The Blue Jays most recent off season has consisted on the re-inventing of the team's pitching staff. Gone are David Price (18 wins, 5 losses, 2.45 earned run average, 225 strikeouts, just over 220 innings pitched) and Buehrle (15-8, 3.81, just under 199 innings). They will be replaced by one time Blue Jays left hand pitcher JA Happ (11-8, 3.61, 151 Ks, 72 IP) and Jesse Chavez (7-15, 4.18, 136 Ks, 157 IP). They also added reliever Drew Storen (2-2, 3.44, 29 saves, 67 Ks, 55 IP) in an off season deal with the Washington Nationals in exchange for Ben Revere. Also brought in are veteran starters Gavin Floyd and Roberto Hernandez and relievers Pat Venditte and Randy Choate. All the moves were may by new team president Mark Shapiro, who hired Ross Adkins as the team's new general manager after Anthopoulos resigned. The Blue Jays are blessed with one of the better assembled offenses the game has seen in years. Bautista (.250 batting average, 40 home runs, 114 runs batted in, .913 on base plus slugging) and Encarnacion (.277, 39, 111, .929) were enough on their own. The addition of Donaldson (.297, 41, 123, .939), the 2015 American League Most Valuable Player, and catcher Russell Martin (.240, 23, 77, .787) is a blessing by itself. The emergence of center fielder Kevin Pillar (.278, 12, 56, .713, 25 stolen bases) and first baseman Chris Colabello (.321, 15, 54, .886) made the lineup even more potent. Tulowitzki (.280, 17, 70, .777) is hoping to be healthy enough to be around all season and the Blue Jays get left fielder Michael Saunders (just 31 at bats in 2015, 19 home runs in 2012) after missing most of last year. Toronto will go with a combination of Ryan Goins (.250, 5, 45, .768) and Devon Travis (.304, 8, 35, .859) at second base once Travis has recovered from his November shoulder surgery. The lineup I would go with is Saunders LF, Donaldson 3B, Bautista RF, Encarnacion DH, Tulowitzki SS, Colabello 1B, Martin C, Pillar CF, Goins/ Travis 2B. Travis, in my opinion, is the better full time option as long as he proves he is healthy. The Jays also have veteran Darwin Barney to provide insurance in the infield and Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera and Junior Lake should all be in the mix with Josh Thole serving as the team's backup catcher. Domonic Brown comes in hoping that a change of scenery will get him back to being the player that hit .272 with 27 home runs in 2013. Casey Kotchman is also looking at another MLB shot. The Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation will hinge this season on the impact of Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67, 4 starts, 27 innings pitched), who missed most of the season due to a torn ACL. However, his unprecedented return last year was a huge boast for the team and he was able to pitch in the playoffs for them. With Price no longer around, Stroman will be counted on to be the team's ace. Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13, 28 starts, 181 IP) was a great story last season after seemingly hitting a wall in Milwaukee. If he duplicates his 2015, the Jays will be okay. The addition of Happ may be one of the more underrated moves of the entire off season. The adjustments he made under Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage could have totally resurrected his career. If so, the Jays may have made a great investment even though the 3 year, $36 million contract commitment may seem like a lot for a .500 career pitcher with a slightly above 4.00 career ERA. Veteran RA Dickey (11-11, 3.91, just over 214 IP) is entering his forth season in Toronto and hopefully can gracefully provide insurance as a forth starter. The fifth spot could go to Chavez, but also look at Floyd, Drew Hutchinson (13-5, 5.57, 150 IP), Hernandez or Aaron Sanchez (7-6, 3.22, 41 games, 11 starts). I still believe in Sanchez and would like to see him get a full season as a starting pitcher. Sanchez and Chavez may be vulnerable to the fact that they have succeeded in a relief role. With essentially one starting spot available in the rotation, unfortunately, both may not be given the attention they deserve. Storen will serve as the closer with incumbent closer Roberto Osuna (1-6, 2.48, 20 saves, 75 Ks, just under 70 innings pitched) serving as the eight inning guy. Left handers Brett Cecil (5-5, 2.48, 70 Ks, just over 54 IP), Aaron Loup (2-5, 4.46, 46 Ks, just over 42 innings), Choate, and the switch pitcher Venditte will round out what could be a deep bullpen. The Jays will have to decide if they are better with Sanchez as a late game reliever or their rotation is deeper with him as part of it. A couple sons of former major leaguers highlight the Blue Jays top minor league players. Dwight Smith Jr could debut this season but may be better off spending one more season in the minors. Vladimir Guerrero Jr was signed this past off season, but just turned 17. Even if he is as good as his father, I cannot imagine him being close to major league ready for at least three more full MLB seasons. The Blue Jays also signed right hander Yennsy Diaz, a solid young arm that will also be a ways away from the big leagues. The Blue Jays have a chance to be the best team in the American League if they get some solid pitching. Happ and Sanchez have a chance to be great, if Happ continues in his progression from last season and Sanchez first gets a chance to be a starting pitcher all season and second pitches as well as I think he can. That will change my overall outlook on this team. In all reality, I see the Blue Jays scoring more runs than they did last season, but giving up way more runs than they give in 2015. Stroman will be great, but I cannot expect Estrada to repeat his improbable campaign of a year ago. The American League East teams will feast off the Toronto pitchers and there are few examples of teams that are all offense that get to the postseason, let alone advance in the postseason. Las Vegas has the Blue Jays at 87 and I take the under, with a record of 84-78, second place in the American League East. However, the fact that they are ranking at 11 means they are the non-playoff team that is closest to being a playoff team. I think the Jays are that close and if they can be in the race come July, look for them to make a similar acquisition to what they did last season when they added Price.

As we enter another exciting baseball season, it is always interesting to get a feel of what we are in for. Many outlets have given their predictions, most of whom have taken the safe route. The safe route consists of assuming the teams that were bad in the previous season will continue to be bad and the teams that made the postseason the previous season will return the coming year. These outlets will generally put one team that just missed out on the playoffs the season before to make it seem they are trying to make a reach. There really is no way to accurately predict how teams in any sport will finish in a given season. While certain teams seem to have more talent on paper, it is impossible to factor in things like injuries, chemistry, and something as simple as a player backing up what it says on his baseball card. Sure, it is easy to suggest that players may depreciate due to age, it is difficult to rate exactly as much. So, in the end, there is no set prediction to trust as being better than another. All should be considered equal as long as reasoning is provided for why a certain team may finish as well or as poorly. This is my fifth year doing my team predictions. While my accuracy has improved each year, it is far from perfect. I will discuss the outlook from the previous season, the moves made in the off season, the team's farm system and what players can be expected to improve for each team. Based off of that, I have viewed the Las Vegas over unders, and have given said team a win total. As in the previous years, I will do the predictions from worst to best.The Colorado Rockies finished the 2015 season at 68-94. The team's Achilles heel is going to continue to be their pitching, mainly their starting rotation. The team is continuing to build up some talent in its farm system with the intention of eventually addressing their starting pitching. Unfortunately, this help is unlikely to help right away and the front office has not done enough to help their starters for this coming season. They did add a couple of relievers, mainly Jake McGee (1 win, 2 losses, 2.41 earned run average, 48 strikeouts in just over 37 innings) from Tampa Bay in a deal for outfielder Corey Dickerson (.304 batting average, 10 home runs, 31 runs batted in, .869 on base plus slugging). They also added free agent relievers Chad Qualls (3-5, 4.38, 60 games pitched with Houston) and Jason Motte (8-1, 3.91, 57 games with Chicago Cubs). One of the things that will always allow the Rockies to compete is the friendly confines of their home stadium of Coors Field. Naturally, the team has always been able to score a lot of runs but even when they have their best pitching on the mound, they tend to give up runs at the same rate. Of course, that assumes the pitching is on the same par with the opponent's pitching (we can all agree that it is not). Odds are, as in previous seasons, the Rockies will be able to score runs. Third baseman Nolan Arenado (.287, 42, 130, .898) solidified himself as a star in 2015.Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (.271, 40, 97, .864) was back to being the top player he was before a couple seasons of injury. The Rockies signed free agent OF Gerardo Parra (.291, 14, 51, .780) from the Baltimore Orioles to add a little length to the lineup. Second baseman DJ LeMahieu (.301, 6, 61, .746) and center fielder Charlie Blackmon (.287, 17, 58, .797) allow for the Rockies to continue to be able to score runs. They will need a little help from shortstop Jose Reyes (.274, 7, 53, 24 stolen bases), who has gradually lost range at the position. However, his offensive struggles seemed to start after his mid season 2015 trade to Colorado. Because of that, I cannot guarantee that Reyes is a diminished offensive player. He, and the Rockies, are both hopeful that he can avoid a suspension from major league baseball for his off season domestic violence incident. Nick Hundley (.301, 10, 43, .807) will be the starting catcher and Ben Paulsen (.277, 11, 49, .787) will be at first base. The lineup I would put out for the Rockies is as follows: Blackmon CF, Reyes SS, Arenado 3B, Gonzalez RF, Parra LF, LeMahieu 2B, Paulsen 1B, Hundley C. The Rockies brought in slugger Mark Reynolds (.230, 13, 48, .713) as a free agent from the Cardinals and he has the ability to benefit from playing his home games in Coors Field. If it works out, he may get the majority of the at bats at first base instead of Paulsen. Veteran infielder Daniel Descalso (.205, 5, 22, .607) is a dependable backup as is outfielder Brandon Barnes (.251, 2, 17, .655). Dustin Garneau (.157 batting average in 70 at bats) will likely serve as the backup catcher. I will start out by saying I like the mix of Jonathan Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Matzek, Chris Rusin and Miguel Castro in regards to Rockies starting pitchers. That being said, LHP Jorge DeLaRosa (9-7, 4.17, 134 strikeouts in 147 innings) and RHP Chad Bettis (8-6, 4.23, 98 Ks, 115 IP) could give the pitching deprived Rockies fan base something to root for. DeLaRosa (when he has been healthy) has been the most consistent Colorado starting pitcher in their history. Bettis started to emerge in the second half of 2015. While I would like to see Gray (0-3, 5.53, 9 starts), Rusin (6-10, 5.33) and Matzek (2-1, 4.09, 5 starts), the Rockies will likely start the season with Tyler Chatwood (missed 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery), Jordan Lyles (2-5, 5.14, 10 starts) and David Hale (5-5, 6.09, 12 starts). Gray, Rusin and Matzek clearly have more upside but I understand the Rockies interest in not ruining all their confidence at the same time. The bullpen should be better with McGee, Qualls and Motte. Adam Ottavino is on the shelf to start the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Jairo Diaz (0-1, 2.37, 21 games) looked good when he was up last season. Justin Miller (3-3, 4.05, 34 games) and veteran Boone Logan (0-3, 4.33, 60 games) look to provide some stability in relief. Castro remains a thought to both relieve and start (0-3, 6.11, 18 games). He was just 20 years old in 2015. Keep an eye on 2015 top draft pick (#2 overall) Brendon Rodgers, the Rockies shortstop of the future. in addition to Hoffman, the Rockies have their other top draft pick of 2015 Mike Nikorak and LHP Kyle Freeland. My concern with these pitchers is how they will adjust to Coors Field. It is not like the Rockies have not drafted talented pitchers before. History shows that these pitchers struggle in their new surroundings and there is no evidence that this will not continue to happen. Before we see the likes of Hoffman, Nikorak and Freeland, we will see if Gray can adjust to the altitude. So far, Rusin and Matzek have had mixed reviews. Infielder Trevor Storey, 3B Ryan MacMahon and OF David Dahl are all solid young players we should expect to see in the major leagues soon. Cristhian Adames has a good shot to crack the MLB roster to start the season as a role player, but is obviously blocked at third and second by Arenado and LeMahieu, respectively.My problem with the Rockies has existed for the past twenty something years. Since even the best pitchers struggle at Coors Field, it has led to pitchers not wanting to come to Colorado. Because of this, the value of a starting pitcher contract is higher (like the altitude) in Colorado than it would be anywhere else. For example, David Price would be worth a $300 million contract and Zack Greinke $250 million. Until the ownership gets that they are not on the same playing field as other teams in regards to top pitchers, they will continue to struggle. I hope the young pitchers like Gray and Nikorak can succeed, but chances are, it will be tough for them too. The goal for the Rockies will continue to score more runs than the opposition, even though they know they will give up a lot of runs themselves. I see the Rockies taking a step back this season, as Las Vegas has them at 68.5. I see them winning 62 games, losing 100 and once again finishing in last place in the NL West division.

New York Mets manager Terry Collins is an improbable position. Few managers get the opportunity to return to the dugout for a forth season after leading their teams to losing records in the first three. Even less (even Ron Gardenhire was let go after his 4th straight losing season) get a shot at a fifth season after leading their team to losing records in the first four. As the Mets prepare for their first postseason appearance since 2006, the same manager is in the dugout that saw their complete rebuild from square one. I have been a supporter of Terry Collins, like many other managers put into similar situations. It is not fair to hire a person into a leadership position, take away his talent AND expect him to lead the team to victory. Whether fans have issues with his demeanor, his lineups or his use of the bullpen, the truth remains the Mets brought to the table a better group of ball players in 2011 than they did in 2012 and 2013 (and arguably 2014). Whether you like Terry Collins or not, he was not the one who reduced the talent level on the field forcing the Mets to be a second division club for the past three seasons. The trades GM Sandy Alderson made in 2011 to deal reliever Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers and Carlos Beltran to the Giants were made for different reasons. The trade of K-Rod was a salary dump and kept the Mets from having to pay him $17 million for 2012 (which they could not afford). The Beltran trade brought in Zack Wheeler, a young arm who is expected to return to his 2014 MLB form after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Both moves were very symbolic towards the direction of the ball club going forward. The K-Rod trade was proof that the Mets were not going to be a contender for the rest of the season- a point backed up by the fact that they did not have a serviceable reliever to pitch the 9th inning. The Beltran trade was the final white flag, though the future could be bright, there was no hope for the Mets in 2012. SS Jose Reyes left as a free agent after the season and though he signed a very prohibitive contract (look at what's left on the final two years of his deal with Colorado), it was a sign that the Mets were not looking to win in 2012. 2012 was all about the amazing season of starting pitcher RA Dickey. Though he had proven to be a dependable starter in his first two seasons with the Mets, his breakout Cy Young campaign kind of came out of nowhere. The Mets were 22-12 in Dickey's 34 starts, but just 52-76 in the team's other 128 games. Alderson cashed in on Dickey and got his eventual starting catcher, his postseason number two starter and a young, excitable OF (Wuilmer Becerra) moving up through the Mets minor league system in return for the Cy Young Award winner. Though it looked good for the future, it did not look good for the 2013 season. So this takes me back to Collins, who before the 2013 season was about to enter his third season as manager of the Mets. Of course, he was clearly in a position where the expectations were less than they were in the prior season. And the expectations for the prior season were less than that of the year before. If 2013 was Terry's last as manager of the Mets, few would complain. Mainly because of what I stated earlier, the fact that manager are seldom kept around for more than three consecutive losing seasons. It still does not make it right. How can a manager be expected to win or be fired when the talent level at the major league level resembles that of a championship Beer League team? But that is the game of Major League Baseball we live in. Coming into a season, expectations are high for the teams that are considered to have the most talent. A handful of teams can be considered sleepers. If these teams overachieve, they can exceed expectations. The rest of the league can paint a dream scenario- something from a fantasy or a out of a fairy tale, where things bounce a certain way and their team can shock the world. An example would be the 1914 Boston Braves. The probability of such an occurrence is almost nonexistent. Imagine being a manager going into year four with such expectations. After the conclusion of his fifth season as Mets manager, Terry Collins is about to manage in the postseason. Not just for his team and himself- but for all the managers who were let go right before their teams jumped into the postseason. He is doing it for Buck Showalter, who was let go after four seasons with the Yankees before they won the World Series in 1996 and again with the Diamondbacks after three years before they won the World Series in 2001. He is doing it for Brad Mills and Bo Porter of the Astros, who led dismal teams but did not see stick around to see the results of 2015. Even for... wait for it... Jerry Manuel, who led the Chicago White Sox to four straight WINNING seasons (1 was 81-81) only to be fired and replaced by Ozzie Guillen who won a World Series in his second season. Going back further, how about Pirates manager Larry Shepard being let go after the 1969 season in favor of Danny Murtaugh. This happened to coincide with the Pirates making the postseason five out of six seasons including a WS Championship in 1971. Outside of Buck, no other manager mentioned has ever skippered a club to the postseason. Furthermore, Collins getting to the postseason after 1688 games is a story by itself. He led the Astros to three consecutive winning seasons before he was let go after the 1996 season. The season after he was replaced, Larry Dierker (Passed Ball Show guest) led them to the postseason for the first time since 1986. Collins led the Angels to two consecutive winning seasons before it all fell apart for him in 1999. He waited 12 years, taking on any position offered to him, including stops in Japan and China.​ There are two ways one can build up a reputation as a successful manager. Joe Torre, Terry Francona and Bob Brenly got themselves in the position to take over a good club at the right time. Of course, Torre and Francona won again, further validating their record for success. Being in the postseason must mean more to Terry Collins than a lot of the past managers. Gene Mauch holds the record of 3293 regular season games without a postseason appearance. I am sure he is just as happy for Collins as I am.

Because of the parity in Major League Baseball, it is easy to understand how the difference in making the playoffs and missing it can be because of a game or two. It can also be because of an injury that one team suffers against a team who does not suffer the same injury. That being said, I have envisioned a scenario where as many as 20 teams win 80 games in 2015. If you doubt how it is possible, I suggest you add up all the wins and losses of all 30 teams that I either have or will preview and I promise you there will be the same amount of wins and losses totaled. Because of that, the win total of 85 became my magic number in terms of a team making the playoffs. According to the 2015 30-1, 2 teams make the postseason with 85 wins and 4 teams barely miss the postseason with win totals of 84 or 83. The difference in thema Toronto Blue Jays being in the postseason and out is Marcos Stroman. I healthy Marcus Stroman was good enough to propel the Toronto Blue Jays into the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Traditionally on the 30-1 MLB countdown previews, a spring training injury was enough for a team to lose a win- and that win going to another team in the same league. In this case, it marks the first time that the loss of a single win pushed a team out of the postseason and resulted in a postseason berth for another. One of the things that has bothered me over the past couple years is the Blue Jays not pursuing a top of the rotation starting pitcher. In the past off season, I would have liked to see the Jays pursue James Shields, Ervin Santana or even Jon Lester or Max Scherzer. Initially, I could not figure out why the Blue Jays would not want a guy like that at the top of their rotation. Then, I took a couple minutes to see how young pitchers like Drew Hutchison (11-13, 4.48, 32 starts) and Stroman (11-6, 3.65, 26 games, 20 starts), just 23, were developing. Then, I took a look at the stuff top pitching prospects Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 1.09, 24 relief appearances) and Daniel Norris (12-2, 2.53, 25 starts in the minors), both 21. Add in veterans RA Dickey (14-13, 3.71, 34 starts) and Mark Buehrle (13-10, 3.39, 32 starts), who I think can mentor the young pitchers, the Jays rotation actually looks much better. Losing Stroman forces the Blue Jays to perhaps rush Sanchez and/ or Norris and maybe expect too much out of RHP Marco Estrada (7-6, 4.38, 39 games, 18 starts, NL leading 29 HR allowed). LHP Johan Santana is making a comeback, but is a long shot to be ready in time for opening day. I love the moves made by the Blue Jays to get 3B Josh Donaldson (.255, 29, 98) and C Russell Martin (.290, 11, 67). I also think the potential platoon of OFs Michael Saunders (.273, 8, 34 in just 78 games) and Dayan Viciedo (.231, 21, 58) makes up for the loss of OF Melky Cabrera (.301, 16, 73) adding a little more power while giving up batting average. The Blue Jays are led by their big three- SS Jose Reyes (.287, 9, 51, 30 SB), OF Jose Bautista (.286, 35, 103) and 1B Edwin Encarnacion (.268, 34, 98). Losing DH Adam Lind (.321, 6, 40) to the Brewers in the Estrada trade allows for incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro (.274, 12, 69) to become the team's full time DH. Former Mariners 1B Justin Smoak (.202, 7, 30) comes in recording 54 home runs from 2011-2013 with Seattle. The other two spots in the Toronto batting order are very interesting. The team looks ready to go with journeyman Macier Izturis (.286, 10-35 in 11 games in 2014) as their regular 2B, with Ryan Goins (.188, 1, 15) probably getting a look. Initially, GM Alex Anthopoulos was not ready to part with 3B Brett Lawrie in the Donaldson deal, instead hoping to move him to 2B. After the Athletics insisted he be included in the deal, off he went. Switch hitting OF Dalton Pompey (.317, 9, 51, 43 SB, 9 3B in the minors) gets a shot to be the everyday CF. He reminds me of a young Jose Reyes with his speed and sneaky power. I'd bat him lead off with Reyes behind him, followed by Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Donaldson 3B, Martin C, Navarro DH, Saunders/ Viciedo LF, Izturis 2B. The team can also bat Pompey 9th and move Martin or Saunders to the two spot with Reyes leading off. Infielder Danny Valencia, Viciedo/ Saunders, Goins, Smoak and OF Kevin Pilar are the favorites to be on the Jays bench to start the season. Ramon Santiago is also in camp. I understood that the Blue Jays would probably not re-sign closer Casey Janssen (3-3, 3.94, 50 games, 25 saves). What I did not understand was how the team did not go for an upgrade for either closer or 8th inning guy. LHP Brett Cecil (2-3, 2.70, 66 games, 5 saves, 76 Ks in just over 53 IP) is a good candidate to close, but leaves the team without a solid 8th inning option to miss bats. The next two top Jays relievers, Aaron Loup (4-4, 3.15, 71 games) and Steve Delabar (3-0, 4.91, 30 games) are more situational left and right handed pitchers. Both are best suited to get a single batter out as opposed to pitching entire innings. RHP Wilton Lopez hopes to have a return of his success in Houston with RHPs Todd Redmond (1-4, 3.24, 42 games) and Chad Jenkins (1-1, 2.56, 21 games) looking to help out, despite neither being over powering. Miguel Castro (8-3, 2.59, 16 games, 15 starts in the minors) is just 20 years old and misses bats and could be considered a dark horse. If I was Toronto, I would still consider signing RHP Rafael Soriano, who is still a free agent. The top three Blue Jays prospects, Norris, Sanchez and Pompey are all expected to be on the opening day roster. Maybe Norris gets left behind, but you can make a case that the team is better with him in the rotation over Estrada. 2B Devon Travis (.296, 10, 52, 16 SB in the Eastern League) should be ready to join the team at some point in 2015. The 2014 Blue Jays went 83-79, finishing in 3rd place in the AL East division. Vegas has their O/U at 82 1/2, which is right on with what they did last season. The injury to Stroman, who I felt could have taken over as a 1 or 2 starter on this team, cost them a game so I have the Toronto Blue Jays at 84-78, 2nd place in the AL East. Being ranked 11th makes them the first team on the outside looking in for the month of October.

If you were previewing the Cleveland Indians of 2014, one of the things that would be mentioned was the amount of players (notably pitchers) that the team did not have returning. Starting pitchers Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Karmir left as free agents and so did relievers Chris Perez and Joe Smith. The Indians had confidence in their younger pitchers and it paid off in 2014. In fact, their younger pitchers, led by AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44, 3 CGs, SHO, 269 Ks) were so effective GM Chris Antonetti was able to deal number one starting pitcher Justin Masterson to the Cardinals. The 2013 Indians won 92 games and made it to the playoffs. The 2014 Indians were 85-77, finishing 3rd place in the AL Central after finishing 2nd a year earlier. What I thought was more impressive about the most recent team was the fact that they have a different identity. Kluber and fellow starting pitchers Trevor Bauer (5-8, 4.28, 26 starts), Danny Salazar (6-8, 4.25, 20 starts), Carlos Carrasco (8-7, 2.55, 40 games, 15 starts) and TJ House (5-3, 3.35, 18 starts) are a big strength for the team that wasn't quite seen a year before. Offensively, the 2013 Indians depended a lot on guys like Jason Giambi, Ryan Raburn, Mark Reynolds (before he was released) and Drew Stubbs. In 2014, they traded their starting SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.261, 14, 61 for Cleveland and Washington), who was arguably one of the core players of the Indians for the past several years. The Indians saw breakout seasons from LF Michael Brantley (.327, 20, 97, 94 RS, 200 H, 45 2B) and C Yan Gomes (.278, 21, 74). Carlos Santana (.241, 27, 85) became a full time 1B after playing a little bit of 3B at the start of the season. The Indians biggest strength coming into this season is their strong starting pitching. Odds are, it can get even better. Kluber had his breakout season, but so did Carrasco. House looked very good when he came up and Salazar is a good pitcher; but Bauer is the pitcher I would bet having the breakout 2015. The Indians signed RHP Gavin Floyd (2-2, 2.65, 9 starts for Braves) which adds to the depth. I'd go with the rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, House and Salazar. Salazar should be in a battle with Floyd, who is trying to prove he is healthy after an elbow operation ended his 2014. On the comeback trail also is RHP Shaun Marcum (1-0, 2.08, 9 games, 2 starts in minors with Indians). He can be in the mix for a starting rotation spot or he may be able to win a job as a long reliever. The same can be said for veteran LHP Bruce Chen (2-4, 7.45, 13 games, 7 starts for Royals). The trade of Cabrera opened the door for 21 year old SS Jose Ramirez (.262, 2, 17 in 68 games), who will be the starting SS going into 2015. Ramirez has very good speed and has the ability to hit .280-.300 at the major league level. Though he has been rated as a decent defensive SS, the Indians have been reluctant to play him a lot there in the minor leagues. In fact, out of his 286 minor league games, 199 have been at 2B, where his defensive metrics seem to be a little better. In 2008, the Indians drafted a switch hitting SS with the 8th overall pick. This player has continued to develop during his 3 seasons in the minor leagues and has become one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Francisco Lindor is expected to take over at SS for the Indians as soon as the date clears for his Super Two status to be removed. Lindor has speed and is a superior defensive player. He also has some sneaky power from both sides of the plate, kind of like a young Jose Reyes. The Indians offense got a boost when they acquired Brandon Moss (.234, 25, 81) from the Athletics. Moss can play 1B or DH as well, but for the Indians will take over in RF, making David Murphy (.262, 8, 58) a 4th OF type. Michael Bourn (.257, 3, 27, just 10 SB) seems to be digressing as the Indians may be getting a little buyers remorse. However, Bourn only has two years remaining on his current 4 year, $48 million deal. Speaking of bad contracts, Nick Swisher (.208, 8, 42) is entering the 3rd year of his 4 year, $56 million deal he signed before Bourn was added. Jason Kipnis (.240, 6, 41, 22 SB after hitting .284, 17, 84 in 2013) saw his stock drop drastically last season. Because he battled some injuries all season, I see him as a candidate to have a bounce back 2015. 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (.280, 13, 59) emerged as the team's everyday 3B and is expected to man the position again this season. This is the lineup I would go with if I was Indians manager Terry Francona- Ramirez SS, Kipnis 2B, Brantley LF, Santana 1B, Moss RF, Gomes C, Chisenhall 3B, Swisher DH, Bourn CF. Batting leadoff can allow for Ramirez to focus on catching the ball and getting on base and takes the pressure off of Swisher and Bourn, who are no longer focal points of the offense. Lets be honest, if they get anything out of the two of them, it will be a bonus. One thing that does stand out for the Indians is their flexibility. Brantley can play CF, Swisher 1B or the OF, Santana can catch, Moss 1B or DH and Mike Aviles can play 2B, SS, 3B or the OF. Murphy, Raburn and backup C Roberto Perez round out the bench. The Indians were led last season by relievers Cody Allen (6-4, 2.07, 24 saves) and Bryan Shaw (5-5, 2.55, 80 games). Veteran Scott Atchison (6-0, 2.75, 70 games) came out of nowhere to earn another season in Cleveland. LHP Mark Rzepczynski (0-3, 2.74, 73 games) is expected to once again be the team's primary lefty specialist. You should keep a good eye on 22 year old LHP Kyle Crockett. The 2013 4th round draft pick has pitched to a 0.56 ERA in 42 minor league games and made his debut in the major leagues by pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 43 games for the Indians in 2014. He misses bats which makes him a candidate to be more than a lefty on lefty pitcher. Allen pitched well last season, but Crockett looks to have an ability to get some late game attention. Also, look at the starting rotation candidates. If a Floyd or Marcum makes the rotation, perhaps Salazar or House get put into the 8th inning role- both have the stuff to be a closer as well. Outside of Lindor, the Indians have some good offensive prospects including two OFs two we will likely see this season. LH hitting OF Tyler Naquin looks like a natural as a hitter. He has the ability to be a batting champion and should see his high average in the minors translate to the bigs. Taken in the same first round of the 2012 draft (23rd as opposed to 15th) James Ramsey has good power and a solid eye at the plate. He was acquired from St Louis in the deal that made Masterson a Cardinal. Perhaps the Indians can find a way to get Jesus Aguilar into the lineup. He hit 19 HR in the minors in 2014 and got a September callup. Perhaps the flexibility of guys like Santana, Swisher and Moss can allow for Aguilar to get some p-t. The Indians have a pendulum that can swing from where I have them picked to much better than that. The competition in the AL Central is going to make it tough for the Indians to take those necessary steps. I love their starting pitching, but I think they need a lot out of some guys in the lineup that they may not get. Not even counting Swisher and Bourn, Chisenhall has to back up his solid 2014, which is not a given. Though I think Kipnis will be fine, the team has to wonder what was up with his 2014 season. While I like Allen and Crockett in the bullpen, I still do not consider this pen to be very deep. When I look at the Tigers, Royals and White Sox, I see more depth on the roster 1-25. However, I think this Cleveland starting rotation has a chance to be better than anything the other three can throw out there- and that includes Price/ Verlander and Sale/ Samardzijia. Vegas was a little down on the Indians as well, putting them at 83 1/2 for their O/U. I think they will finish just under that, 81-81, 4th place in the AL Central. However, like a lot of teams in this boat, I would not rule them out to make a run in this division. According to my numbers, I have just 4 games separating 4th place from 1st in this division.

One time New York Mets reliever Dae Sung Koo never returned to Major League Baseball after pitching for the Mets in 2005. Koo was known more for what he did with the bat, when he doubled off New York Yankees LHP and expected 2015 Hall of Famer Randy Johnson and scored from second base in exciting fashion. Koo was signed on January 12, 2005 by Mets GM Omar Minaya. The then 35 year old pitched in 33 games for the Mets, finishing with no record or saves and a 3.91 ERA. He had 23 Ks in 23 IP, but gave 22 hits and 13 walks which gave him a WHIP of over 1.500. His season and MLB career ended that season on August 20th, which was his last MLB game. The LHP did not start to pitch professionally for even his home country of Korea until 1999, when he was 29 years old. Debuting for the Hanwha Eagles, he appeared in 55 games, making 5 starts and went 8-9, 3.09 with 26 saves. He also had 133 Ks in over 119 IP. In 2000, Koo was 6-7, 2.77 in 44 games, 7 starts, with 21 saves and 136 Ks in over 133 IP. Koo joined the Orix Blue Wave of the Japanese Pacific League for the 2001 season and struggled as a reliever, going 7-9, 4.06 in 51 games, 9 starts. It was towards the end of that season that Koo was made into a starting pitcher, a role he would hold onto through the 2004 season. His best season for Orix was 2002, where he made 22 starts and pitched to a 2.52 ERA. He also had a 1.115 WHIP for the season and averaged nearly a strikeout an inning. Overall in his 4 seasons for the Blue Wave, Koo went 24-34, 3.88 in 110 games, 68 starts and a WHIP of 1.325. The Mets signed the relatively unknown pitcher to a minor league deal and an invitation to spring training. He made the team out of camp and was one of three left handed pitchers in the Mets 2005 opening day bullpen, joining Mike Mathews and Felix Heredia. He would become a serviceable piece in the Mets bullpen, where he became the main left handed reliever. Mathews and Heredia would pitch in a combined 9 games for the team and the only other left handed relievers for the 2005 Mets were Royce Ring, who appeared in 15 games and Tim Hamulack, who pitched in just 6 games. I was at the game against the Cincinnati Reds where Koo got his first MLB AB. For Koo, it was his first AB since high school and he seemed to have no interest in taking a swing. He looked at three straight fastballs and walked back to the dugout. His next AB came against the Yankees on a Nationally Televised FOX game where analyst Tim McCarver (a 2014 PBS guest- www.johnpielli.com) called Koo's AB the "biggest give up at bat." Similar to his first AB, Koo took the first two pitches and with the count 1-1 he took his first swing, crushing the ball over the head of Bernie Williams for a double. Leadoff batter Jose Reyes laid down a bunt, trying to get a hit and was barely thrown out, advancing Koo to third. After Koo stopped at 3B, it was noticed that nobody was covering home plate so he took off. Koo was in a foot race with Yankees catcher Jorge Posada for home plate. Koo dove head first and was called safe in a very close play. As much accolades as Koo got for his hit and heads up baserunning in the Yankees game, Koo was clearly not the same pitcher afterwards. Down the road, it was discovered that Koo had injured his shoulder when he dove into home plate. In his first 9 games including the 5/21 game, Koo had given up just 2 runs in just less than 7 IP. His next appearance would see him yield 2 unearned runs starting a stretch where he would give up 7 runs, 5 earned in just under 10 IP in his final 15 appearances for the Mets. He was shutdown for the season on August 20th, like I mentioned before. The Mets sold his contract to the Hanwha Eagles, the Korean team he started out with. Koo's 2006 season was by far his best as a pro; he went 3-4, 37 saves and 1.82 ERA with 76 Ks in over 69 IP. A couple tough losses kept Koo's numbers for looking better in 2007, as he went 1-6, 26 saves and 3.19 ERA for the Eagles. He relinquished his closers job the next season, appearing in 38 games as a late inning set up man. In 2009, Koo pitched in a career high 71 games, being used primarily as a left handed specialist. After struggling at the beginning of the 2010 season, Koo made 1 more start before announcing his retirement. In August of that season, he announced he was signing on to play baseball in Australia, for the Sydney Blue Sox. The baseball season in Australia starts at the end of the year into the next. Koo would pitch for the Blue Sox in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 as their closer. He was named reliever of the year in his first season. He moved into the 8th inning role for all of the 2012-2013 season and part of 2013-2014. He regained the closers job when the team's closer was traded. Through his 4 seasons for Sydney, Koo had a 2.08 ERA and 31 saves. The one time MLB LHP is now 45 years old and has over 15 years experience pitching professionally. Dae Sung Koo has most recently been linked to a team in the New South Wales Major League in Australia, where he lives all year round. He has played for the Baulkham Hills team. The team's nickname, ironically, is the Kookaburras...

I'm happy to be putting together my annual MLB team previews for the 3rd consecutive March. Each of the past seasons, I have learned from my experience that I have to make adjustments to my initial thoughts. My beef has been with all the experts just piggy backing off Baseball Prospectus to rank the teams to prospective finishes. Before the 2012 season, I tried to make a point that they are never completely correct. By doing so, I made some bolder predictions to try to stand out. I also noticed that the know it alls simply like to predict that the same teams that were successful last season will automatically be great the following year. While that is not necessarily true, there is no formula to pick that "sleeper team" for any given season. Doing this for the 3rd season, I've put together a better balance of logic and in the belief of the up and comer. Feel free to comment both on the outlook of each team I preview as well as where I rank them among the 30 in MLB. Even if the Jays would have signed RHP Ervin Santana, I am still down on this team this season. Does it have to do with the fact that I had much higher expectations for them last season? Perhaps. When trying to point out what went wrong last season, the expectations had a lot to do with it. But mainly, it was the starting pitching, which was lousy and missing Jose Reyes for two months after the team already had a slow start. It was the slow start, then the Reyes injury surrounded by starting pitching that was not that good. Because of that, the Blue Jays were never in the AL East race. They have followed up the disappointing season with a quiet offseason. However, bringing in Dioner Navarro should add a little production both offensively and defensively. Last year, he hit (.300, 13, 34 in 89 games for the Cubs) in place of JP Arencibia (.194, 21, 55 in 138 games and 148 strikeouts). Acquiring Erik Kratz from the Phillies gives them a legitimate backup and solves their catching woes of a season ago. With Reyes around and hopefully healthy all season, I think this team can surprise, but I am going in with a cautious approach. The question over whether this team will be any good will rest in their starting pitching. RA Dickey (14-13, 4.21. 34 starts) was better than his numbers and pitched as well as he did in 2012 during the second half of last season. Mark Buehrle (12-10, 4.15, 33) pitched like a workhorse who is on the decline. Neither were the issues, it was the rest of the rotation that gave them little to nothing. Josh Johnson, who came over in the same trade that brought the Jays Reyes, was terrible, going 2-8, 6.20 in 16 starts before getting hurt. He is off to San Diego. Brandon Morrow (2-3, 5.63, 10 starts) was counted on to be the number 2 starter in the rotation behind Dickey after pitching to a 2.94 ERA with 3 shutouts in 2012. Morrow will be back in the mix along with JA Happ (5-7, 4.56, 18), who has hit with a linedrive during a game last season. Drew Hutchison, who was 5-3, 4.60, 11 during the 2012, but missed the 2013 season, has the edge on being the 5th starter. Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond and former top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek will all get a chance at some point this season. A dream scenario would see LHP Ricky Romero return to form. Once of the nicer guys in the game deserves to return where he was from 2009-2011, where he won a total of 42 games. Also keep an eye on top pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez, who may be up by seasons end. Casey Janssen (4-1, 2.56, 34 saves) is one of the more underrated closers in baseball and leads a very good bullpen. Sergio Santos (1-1, 1.75, 29 games) returns to anchor the 8th inning. Amazing that the Jays had two All Star relievers and neither were Janssen. Steve Delabar (5-5, 3.22 in 55 games) and Brett Cecil (5-1, 2.82, 60) made the AS team last year. The depth continues with Dustin McGowan (2.45 ERA in 25 games) coming off his arm injury and LHP Aaron Loup (4-6, 2.47, 64). Neil Wagner (2-4, 3.79, 36) and Rogers (5-9, 4.77 in 44 games, 20 starts) will round out what has the makings to be one of the better bullpens in all of baseball. Reyes (.296, 10, 37 in 93 games) stole just 15 bases but did get off to a great start before getting hurt. Having 3B Brett Lawrie (.254, 11, 46 in 107 games) and Melky Cabrera (.279, 3, 30 in 88 games) back from injury should make the lineup stronger. The same can be said about Jose Bautista (.259, 28, 73 in 118 games) and Colby Rasmus (.276, 22, 66 in 118 games). 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion (.272, 26, 104) and DH/1B Adam Lind (.288, 23, 67) had very good 2013 seasons. The team plans to go into the season with 2B Ryan Goins, who got a little experience last season, but will also consider Munenori Kawasaki and Chris Getz. The lineup I would go with is Reyes SS, Rasmus CF, Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Lind DH, Navarro C, Lawrie 3B, Cabrera LF, Goins 2B. On the bench will be Moises Sierra, Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Macier Izturis, Kratz, Josh Thole and maybe Dan Johnson- in on a minor league contract. Injuries destroyed the Blue Jays last season. It is tough to expect the same group of players who were hurt last year to all be healthy this season. Morrow and Happ can make the team forget about the starting pitching woes it had in 2013. I really like their bullpen and their offense can be dangerous if everybody stays healthy. I just don't expect health to fall out of the sky. Vegas has them at 79.5 which about where they should be predicted to be. I am taking the under, going 72-90, last place in the AL East. If I am correct, it is unlikely manager John Gibbons makes it through the season. I was wrong by picking them to take the division last year, maybe I will be incorrect taking them to finish in the basement.

The Mets have had few "can't miss" position players come out of their system in recent years. David Wright, and prior to him, Jose Reyes were the last players that were expected to be able to perform at an All Star level. We all about the labeling players as "prospects" and know that a players needs to back up the talk in the big leagues before the scouts can be proven right. And that applies to the best of the best. You need to see the player succeed at the highest stage before even the player's team can be comfortable not worrying about finding a suitable need for that particular position. So players that are not touted that high should be a little more guarded by their teams with some reinforcements in place in case they can not do the job. So lets rewind back to the offseason after the 2011 season. The Mets let their starting SS Jose Reyes walk without having a player with the same talent to replace him going forward. And on top of it, they gave the job to Ruben Tejada without bringing in a proven player to challenge him for the job. Ronny Cedeno was signed to be a backup player, to fill in if Tejada needed a day off or got injured. Last season, that job was given to Omar Quintanilla. Culminating with last season's performance, it looks like it was a foolish move to give Tejada the job hands down with nobody capable that can play the position. But, the Mets are the Mets. This was an obvious cost cutting decision with no intention of trying to play winning baseball. In my opinion, the decision on Reyes had nothing to do with the blind trust that was put into Ruben Tejada. If a business decision is made to let a starting player walk, a replacement needs to be brought in. Even if the Mets thought Tejada was this great player, logic would dictate that a proven player should have been brought in to challenge him. Remember, he was 21 in 2011 with no backing that he was a sure thing. It was a lazy and potentially costly move to essentially tell Tejada not to worry. "The job is yours, buddy. All you have to do is show up." And you see where that has taken the Mets, Tejada and their shortstop position. Look at 2014 as another season Tejada can do whatever he wants and if he pisses the Mets off too much, Q will be playing every day again. The Mets are facing a similar situation with their outfield as it is currently constructed. The signing of OF Curtis Granderson gives them a legitimate starting OF, likely in LF. Chris Young was brought in as well, but he is coming off a down season. The Mets are trusting that Young can have a bounce back similar to that of 2013 Mets OF Marlon Byrd. I would think Young is likely to play RF, leaving CF to Juan Lagares. Assuming no other moves are made, Eric Young is the 4th OF and will start if one of the other three either get injured or does not play to capability. Eric Young is a useful player, but best suited to be a 4th OF. Lagares had a solid rookie season in 2013. In 121 games, Lagares hit .242, 4, 34 with a .633 OPS. Obviously he stood out defensively and provides a suitable option for the Mets to go with for 2014. But similar to Tejada, it looks like the Mets are going to hand him the job without giving him any competition. Eric Young is the equivalent to Ronny Cedeno in regards to how much of a challenge Lagares is getting. I think the Mets should bring another suitable OF in to challenge Lagares. I would even prefer the Mets sign Nelson Cruz, moving CY to CF. If Lagares succeeds and the other OF do well, it gives the Mets the flexibility to make a trade and give Lagares a chance to play every day. The Mets have no flexibility if Lagares struggles this season. The Ruben Tejada approach did not work with Ruben Tejada. Just giving Lagares the CF job without any competition makes the Mets look disinterested in the starting positions on their team once again.

Toronto Blue Jays RHP RA Dickey has completed his first season as a starting pitcher in Canada. Even though he has plenty of experience pitching in the American League in his days in Texas, Minnesota and Seattle, this was his first AL season after redefining himself as a knuckleball pitcher. If the question was openly asked, "RA Dickey's first season in Toronto, was it a success or failure?", many would answer that it was a failure before even looking over the season. For the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the season was a big disappointment. If the word "failure" was used, it would not be an over statement. The Blue Jays were picked to win the AL East by several people associated with the game. A team that already had star hitters Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion as well as proven pitchers Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero made the two well publicized trades with the Marlins and Mets. Adding Jose Reyes to the lineup and three successful starting pitchers, Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle expected to put the Blue Jays in a much better position to succeed than in the prior two seasons. A win today would put the Blue Jays at 75-87, a loss at 74-88. A team that seemed to be so much improved on paper will show no more than a two game improvement from last season. Dickey finished this season at 14-13, 4.21 while leading the AL with 34 games started. Though it is a far cry from his 20-6. 2.73 NL Cy Young season of a year ago, I would not consider Dickey a disappointment. I'm sure if RA was asked, he would discuss things he would have liked to do better. He did pitch his best game of the season in his third to last start against the Yankees. This could be considered the game that most damaged the Yankees playoff hopes. He pitched into the 8th inning in his last start, leading the Jays to a win against the Tampa Bay Rays in a game the Rays needed to win. Dickey's season can be considered decent; he finished 14-13, 4.21 with 224 1/3 IP, giving up 105 ER, 71 BB and 207 hits. His 177 Ks go along with his 1.237 WHIP. Obviously, the numbers did not match up to his 2012 season, where he was 20-6, 2.73, 233 2/3, 71, 54, 192. He also had 230 Ks last season with a WHIP of 1.053. His numbers do not tell justice for how well Dickey pitched in the second half of the season. From July 21st, he made 14 starts. During that time, he was 8-6, 3.62 as opposed to 6-7, 4.75 beforehand. In the second half, Dickey also averaged 6.857 innings/ start, 7.97 Ks/ 9 IP and had a WHIP of 1.166. Prior to the All Star break, Dickey was averaging 6.126 IP/ S, 6.43 Ks/ 9 IP and had a WHIP of 1.290. The fact that his Ks were up, base runners down and innings per start up make a case that Dickey can be better next season. If he pitches closer to the way he did in the second half of 2013 next year, the Toronto Blue Jays could become a contender in the AL East again. Having Reyes healthy for a full season helps as well (obviously).