When you're enduring a lopsided loss by the Oilers (as OilersNation did today) it's important to remember that this team has a tremendous future. The three kids up front in Edmonton will soon be joined by a group of defensemen with varying skills and ability. In a very real way, the timing of the Oilers progress at the NHL level will depend heavily on the development of the blue in Oklahoma City.

The Barons have a nice mixture of experience and prospects in OKC. In fact, the veterans (mostly Shawn Belle and Richard Petiot, although Jake Taylor plays when healthy) may beat the kids to the NHL in the short term. The future on the farm (on D) is represented by Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney, Alex Plante and Johan Motin and it's these players I'm going to look at in this post.

Over the past 10 games, the OKC Barons are 7-3 (I'm not counting all the goofy stuff, just the straight up result). Here's how the group of four performed in those games:

Jeff Petry 10gp, 1-6-7 -7.Performed in difficult circumstances, as he has been paired with Shawn Belle on what looks like the tough minutes pairing for the Barons. He played against the Marlies in back to back weekends when Kadri was playing like a magician and had another tough game in there against the Griffins. Still, I think he's exactly where he should be and would hope the coach would consider giving him softer minutes if the minus numbers continue to grow. I remain convinced he's going to be similar to Tom Gilbert in style.

Alex Plante 10gp, 1-2-3 +2. He's had a nice run on what looks like the 2nd pairing (with Chorney). Some PP minutes, but his main job is to defend and then help with the toughness (41PIMS leads the team). Mobility gets mentioned a lot when discussing Plante, but he looked capable last season during his callup and the Oilers have a couple of guys you can time by sundial right now. I suspect Plante is faster than Vandermeer, as an example.

Taylor Chorney 10gp, 0-2-2 +2. Clearly not part of the PP for OKC, Chorney's main skill when he turned pro (offense from the blue) is no longer in the discussion. That's the trouble with offensive-defensemen, their main strength is unlikely to be utilized as they move along. In Chorney's case, the combination of better options and the organization's desire for him to do his defensive homework have him staying away from the fun stuff. Had no disaster during this 10-game stretch and seems to be settling in nicely. Seems to play with Alex Plante a lot.

Johan Motin 9gp, 1-2-3 +4. Has the most impressive stat line in the group over these 10 games. His +4 stands out but he appears to get a lot of time with a veteran (Petiot) pairing partner and some easier minutes (I think that's the 3rd pairing). Since he signed with the Oilers and turned pro, I've gotten the feeling he's below the others in terms of the organization's ranking. You never know, but that's how it looks at this time. He did have a wonderful game on November 5th (1 assist and a +3).

Now a few questions.

Are any of those 4 ahead of Belle or Petiot for the next callup? I'll suggest Plante. With Theo Peckham's status a little bit in question (there's some worry he came off the bench for today's melee), Plante would be the most obvious replacement if they're looking for a player to match Peckham's style.

Would you be surprised if any of the 4 got the call? Yes. I'd be very surprised if Petry was recalled now because he's clearly adjusting to the pro game and doing it well. If we've endured the sundial blue this long at the NHL level, for heaven sakes continue the education. Also Motin. I don't think the organization is convinced of him. By that I mean they seem to be using him as a replacement level player, not forcing him up the depth chart when opportunitty arises. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe all these kids are passing him the old fashioned way. But I think he's in danger of getting the Danny Syvret-Cody Wild treatment at some point.

So they should callup Belle or Petiot? Probably. I think Plante is ready for an extended look at the big league level but that can happen any time this season or early next. I believe he'll push for a big league job fall 2011, and if that's what the organization is thinking then maybe a 10-game stretch now is a nice prelude to 2011-12.

You don't really like Petry, do you? I like him plenty, more now than a few years ago. He's got size, foot speed and some puck moving ability. I'm comparing him to Tom Gilbert and I think Gilbert is a good defenseman.

How can you say that after today? Easy. Defense is damn difficult and when you make a bad play there's nowhere to hide. That's why Oiler fans use to boo Paul Coffey so much back in the day.

They never booed Coffey. You're making it up. They sure did, I was there. Absolutely true.

Which of the 4 has the best upside? I don't really know what "upside" means, but if everyone delivers on their promise then Petry should be the best man of the four. The only thing I'd mention is that Plante appears to be doing a lot of good things and that could have an impact on the final result. Plante has the best draft pedigree, put it that way. You never want to close the book on a prospect at this early stage. He could end up being this generation's Jason Smith for the Edmonton Oilers.

Petry's a new pro, Plante has been around awhile. How can you say Plante will be better? I'm not saying he WILL be better, just that it could happen. Put another way, the outer marker for Petry imo is a solid top 4 defender with size, speed and the ability to move the puck. A Tom Gilbert-type. A really valuable player. Plante's outer marker is a different type of player. Less PP, fewer points every year. However, he could be a heart and soul player on the Oilers for a decade if he continues to develop the defensive side of the game. More a Jason Smith-Steve Staios type player.

Gilbert's more valuable than Jason Smith ever was. You're sure about that? Defense is still more about keeping the puck out of your net than anything you can do at the other end of the rink.

You're saying Plante's upside is Jason Smith? I'm saying he is a similar player type. There's a lot of luck, sweat and work involved in getting to that point as a player. He could get hurt, or he could lose interest or the Oilers could lose interest in him. New Jersey and Toronto shipped Smith away, and he was just about ready to be Jason Smith when he arrived in Edmonton.

How old was Smith when he got to Edmonton? 25.

How old is Plante? 21. There's a long way to go, but he does have a nice range of defensive skills.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

Horcsky: I would say that I'm usually positive about prospects overall. However, this group of players (led by the three kids at forward playing for the Oilers) are a different item than we've seen in a long time.

This is going to be a lot of fun in the next few years. Starting maybe 2012 fall.

Don't look now but Oilers are on pace to finish with 6 less points this season then last. Many fans are saying that's great...we get another 1st/2nd overall pick next summer to go along with the young talent we already have. Does that apply for the next season as well? And the one after? And the one after? Is the draft lottery the new playoffs and #1 overall the new Stanley Cup?

I completely understand the idea of a rebuild, I understand that the Oilers have lots of talent at the junior level, etc. But the rebuild isn't looking too great through my eyes as of right now.

Lowetide has just written an article talking about our 4 d prospects at the AHL level and kind of given an idea of where they could fit into the oilers lineup in the future. But that is the OILERS lineup. Those 4 dmen would be considered very weak prospects in most other team's depth charts. The reality is, bar Marincin (who looks early on to be a steal), the Oilers have NO dmen right now in their system (aside from maybe Whitney, whose contract will run out before the oil make the playoffs again) who would even have a sniff of being in the top 6 d of a Stanley Cup winning hockey team. The Oilers whole rebuild is based on offense, minus a potential #1 centerman, and last time I checked, all good hockey teams build from the net out.

Get that #1 centerman next summer? Very unlikely. You've got a Sean Couturier whose numbers have dropped off from his 16 year old season in by far the easiest of the 3 CHL leagues. You've got a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who is skilled with the puck but is small and can't score goals. Get a good d prospect in Adam Larsson then? His numbers have dropped off hugely from last season. After putting up 17 pts as a 16 yr old last year, you'd like to see his numbers be around 25-30 pts for this season. Instead he has 3 pts in 17 games and is on pace for 8 on the season.

Why are the OKC Barons doing so well? Because they have a core of young players surrounded by numerous AHL veterans on 1 year contracts (eg. Belle, Petiot, Giroux) who the Oilers have no long-term commitments to past this season. Why couldn't that be done with the Oilers? Why couldn't our youngsters be surrounded by guys like Guerin/Nolan/other unsigned UFA's, players with tons of experience in this league and players who could make the rebuild bearable while the fans wait for the kids to develop. Didn't the Oilers wonder why Phoenix were buying out Vandermeer? Does Strudwick's great personality and hard work in the community make him any faster on the ice? If MacIntyre couldn't play hockey last year, was he going to be able to this year? Is there a reason Fraser only played a couple games for Chicago in the playoffs?

I'm a huge Oilers fan and I hope the rebuild is successful. However, unless it is the Oilers plan to finish in last place for the next 3-4 years, thus ridding players like Eberle/Hall of remembering what it takes to win hockey games and have success, then the man at the top (Steve Tambellini), is not doing a very good job at all. He got rid of dead wood last summer, and then he brought in dead wood. He doesn't contemplate trades. He doesn't call players up unless injuries force him to. He cuts players who outplayed others in training camp (Petiot/Omark/Plante).

I love the Oilers. I could deal with exciting last place hockey. But to me, watching my favorite team lose their last 4 games by a combined score of 26-10 and slump to a record which will be lower than last season's surely unbeatable low, is not in the least bit exciting.

Petry is exactly like Gilbert, right down to the p*ssy factor. Big players who refuse to utilize their size irk me to no end. I figured you'd like Gilbert, Lowetide. The math must love him despite the fact that he carries a purse.

Alex Plante is what a defenceman should be: big, physical, and mean. I like the comparison to Gator.

Petry is exactly like Gilbert, right down to the p*ssy factor. Big players who refuse to utilize their size irk me to no end. I figured you'd like Gilbert, Lowetide. The math must love him despite the fact that he carries a purse.

Alex Plante is what a defenceman should be: big, physical, and mean. I like the comparison to Gator.

agree completely. i'm also high on Martin Marincin, but he's a few years away at the very least.

With regard to Smith-Plante, it's so hard to see those guys coming but man are they valuable. In 00-01, Smith played 21 minutes a night (4 on the PK, none on the PP) blocked a ton of shots, got 10 major penalties and finished +14.

That's what this team needs, and Plante was drafted in the same general area (but was considered a raw player).

Strongly agree with John4. Please dont bring up Coffey´s name in a comparison.

Didn't bring him up as a comparison. Brought him up as an example of the Oilers fanbase. It's not much different now than it was then, although a little angrier. I'm satisfied with using Coffey as an example in this case.

I've probably come off as a pessimist, but i'm not. I'm a realist. If anything, you want your defensive prospects to be older than your forward prospects, because dmen take more time to develop. Compared to the rest of the NHL, the Oilers d prospects are very very weak, and that is not the proper recipe for a rebuild. Drafting some in the next couple of years would be a start, but it will be a long time before the develop, more time than most fans would be willing to wait for this rebuild to come good.

Call me an armchair GM, but if my team badly needs high end d prospects in their system, and guys like Fowler and Gormley (rated in the top 5) are still available at #12, I am doing everything in my power to grab one of those picks. The cost of trading up to the 12-15 area is not remotely close to what it costs a team to trade up to the top 5.

Alas, it's too late for this conversation. Thus I will just sit back and agree that the waiting (will be) the hardest part.

Sorry, I realize the current d prospects in the AHL are older than the kids up front. But I meant in terms of winning a cup in 5-7 years time, the Oilers are going to need TOP END d prospects. It is unlikely that any of the current OKC dmen become top end d prospects, at least they don't project that way at all. And it is unlikely any dman we draft in the coming few years will become a Pronger/Keith/Seabrook/Lidstrom/Gonchar/Niedermayer kind of cup winning quarterback/shutdown man within their first couple years of entering the league. I just think we get to a stage where Hall/Eberle/MPS are 24-26 and the cupboards are still pretty bare in the back end in terms of high end or potential high end prospects. And I don't feel I'm looking too far ahead as virtually all dmen who are considered stars become so after the age of 25 (of course there is the odd example that proves otherwise) which is a long ways away for guys like an Adam Larsson, or a Martin Marincin.

I won't be convinced these are a decent group of D prospects until some of them start turning out. The Oilers have really only produced Greene and possibly Peckham in the last 150 seasons.

It's not the end of the world if the Oilers are unable to draft some stud denfencemen though. Solid veteran defencemen are surprisingly available every season through trade or free agency. If even just a couple of their defencive prospects turn out alright they can probably flip some of their excess forwards for something half decent to fill in the remaining holes on the backend.

You are way too optimistic, this team is at least 2 franchise players in the right positions away from being a contender. Hopefully my guy will make it 1.

But until then?

I don't have confidence in our g.m. He's too afraid of pulling the trigger. He thinks accumulating a bunch of assets regardless of position will = a contender, it doesn't work like that. Holy @#$%&*?+!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice article with perspective, LT. A team needs a nice balance of puck movers, stay at home guys, and pp shooters. That's why we shouldnt run Gilbert out of town. Tell Brownlee we used to boo Paul Coffey. Maybe he will change his mind on Gilbert. Not every defenseman can be Jason Smith, or you would never score a goal.

Remember when, on the right hand side of the Oilersnation homepage, it said Oilers 2-7 Ducks for nearly 6 months, and we all thought to ourselves "man I can't wait for the new season to start so that graphic will go away". Now it says 8-2...we're still the 2:(

I will agree with one thing. I wish Tambi would make a damn decision once in a while.

There are 20 positions on a team. In 3 years, only 6-7 players on the NHL team are probably still part of the picture (Gagner, MP, Hall, Eberle, Horcoff, Peckham, Hemsky). That is 13 positions that Tamby is still assessing**.

You can add in Whitney and Smid for sure, with Penner, Brule, Dubnyk, Gilbert, and Cogliano being possibilities. That's not bad at all considering how much personnel typically turns over during a rebuild. The NHL team has some solid pieces on it. It's the support that's making things so gruesome on the ice recently.

I will agree with one thing. I wish Tambi would make a damn decision once in a while.

There are 20 positions on a team. In 3 years, only 6-7 players on the NHL team are probably still part of the picture (Gagner, MP, Hall, Eberle, Horcoff, Peckham, Hemsky). That is 13 positions that Tamby is still assessing**.

This team is far from being a contender, let alone competitive.

**: Shudders

Pretty close to what I think. The only other I would add is Whitney. We need a stud 1st line center and big mean 4th line center. 2 bangers and crashers in the top 9 players, and 2 tough guys on the 4th line. 1 stud dman and toughness on the back end.

Pretty close to what I think. The only other I would add is Whitney. We need a stud 1st line center and big mean 4th line center. 2 bangers and crashers in the top 9 players, and 2 tough guys on the 4th line. 1 stud dman and toughness on the back end.

Geez looking at our needs, we may need ELPH for 2 more years.

Could we potentially have a couple of those in the system?

Stud # 1 centre: No one, unless Pitlick surprises
Big 4th line centre: Ryan O'Marra: 6'2 220
2 4th line tough guys: Cameron Abney: 6'5 200 (19 y/o); others who have less information about them like Bigos and Benfield.
2 bangers and crashers in top 9: Hartikainen 6'1 215. Allegedly likes to play gritty and get his hands dirty; Curtis Hamilton 6'2 205;
1 stud d-man: No one yet, unless Petry or Marancin become develop at an alarming rate.
back end toughness: Peckham, Hopefully Plante.

Lots would have to go right for all this to happen; the prospects are there for a couple spots to be filled though.

As almost always I love your stuff LT. I do have a hard time agreeing with the Gilbert stuff but let's skip that for awhile.

I think most of you guys are underestimating Johan Motin. The guy had 3 years with the best team in the Sweidish Elite League and I've seen him for in I don't know how many games.. Sure, he doesn't score many point and he sometimes has to work on his quickness and hitting ability but from what I've seen so far of him this season, he's done just that. He might not ever be a #1 D-pairing due to his inability to score points but I have no doubt in my mind he will be an awesome 2nd pairing D-man in the Oilers if trusted upon. He's a steady D-man and he moves the puck better then what I've seen many of the current Oilers D-man do (though, they obviously play in a higher league).

Either way, future blueline is looking great. Belle, Peckham, Smid, Plante, Petry, Motin, Marincin, Blain, Davidson and perhaps Chorney. That's 10 great prospects, a good mix of players and we'll sure as hell get to see some good stuff from at least 5-6 of them.

why are you such a stat whore? do you actually watch or listen to any barons games or do you just cut and paste? Tender Tom Gilbert is terrible and only you and klowe/tambo are wearing the goggles. oh and nice questions to yourself, good to know the "refurbish" is taking tolls on all of us.

Sorry, I realize the current d prospects in the AHL are older than the kids up front. But I meant in terms of winning a cup in 5-7 years time, the Oilers are going to need TOP END d prospects.

Or in two or three years they have a core of say Gilbert, Plante, Petry, Marincin and Peckham and then add a #1 guy through trade or FA. Add in a Larson or two, and suddenly there is tons of depth.

Or they can trade from their surplus of forward prospects for a D prospect.

As the name of this thread implies, Patience is required.

my thoughts exactly, though i don't know if Gilbert will be here in 2 or 3 years time. i would think that there is a market for him, as well as Whitney, Penner and Hemsky. if the right deal comes along then some of these players or perhaps even all could be gone by then.

OPPOSIT EFFECT . Bringing more toughness into our team this year has made things worse for our overload of diminutive forwards . It has also made our defence much weaker . Odd , but true ! Hard for opposition not to run the Oilers off the game they'd prefer to play . No matter what Oiler you hit on forwards of Oilers your not hitting much size or nastiness - thus making it easy and advantageous for opposition to keep doing it to us physically . Defensively we are unable to play effective shutdown or offensively with the minutes they are expected to play .

Plante should help , but we have to do a lot of hard decisions letting a majority of our diminutive forwards go and that includes those currently on farm .

The emphasis on trying to protect the small forwards has made our ability to play the type of game we hoped to play even more difficult and led to more blowouts , etc.. Sad , but very evident ! I can see keeping Gagner and Eberle and maybe one more dimnutive player in the near future , but we have got to change the pressing size and toughness issue up front while revamping a decent defence . We don't have to wait till end of season to do so either - not if they recognize now .

Is Renney the coach to lead this mess ? Maybe not , as i believe his record in NHL has only one winning season in his resume . The hand he has been dealt however , is far from being strong one to begin with .

I remember when Tom Poti was run out of Edmonton - Oiler fans were horrible, piling on, name-calling and ignorant. He's pretty happy where he is now, has produced consistently over the past 8 years (pretty much the same numbers that enraged the locals). I don't think he misses you folks.
Tom Gilbert is off to a bad start - and he's playing on weak defensive squad where his theoretical role is offence. While I agree that both he and Penner need to get meaner, it's just not the dominant part of their game.
I also think it's time to give Dubnyk a few games in a row before Khabby gets used to letting in a half-dozen a game.
I can't believe that Smid fell for Avery's ruse. I'm guessing that doesn't happen again.

Gilbert reminds me a lot of Tom Poti. Skillset of a potential star but just too laid back to get it done. Gilbert will evenutally leave the Oilers and go on to have a reasonably successful career with a better team but will never hit the highs that we thought he was capable of. On a weak team like the Oilers his lack of intestinal fortitude is a glaring weakness.

Give me a Peckham any day on this team over Gilbert. Bring up Belle and retire Strudwick. I'd even say Vandermeer deserves some more ice time. At least he gives whatever he's got. Man, I miss Matt Greene. A Greene and Peckham duo would have been a lot of fun in that game yesterday.

The year before we* booed him off the ice Poti scored 12 goals. He was a minus player, but at least he was scoring goals.

The year he was finally jettisoned he had a single goal and was -6 (he would finish the year -10). He stopped bringing the thing that kept his wacky defensive coverage acceptable.

To your claim that he's been puting up the same numbers in Washington, no. No he has not. His offensive numbers look like they're similar to his final year, but he hasnt had a minus season in a Capitals uniform. In fact, last season he was +26. There is no way that the Oil would have traded him away if he was on pace for a +26 season in Oiler silks.

It took Poti until he was in his late 20's to figure out the defensive game and to stop bleeding goals. Gilbert is now in his late 20's. When does he learn how to stop bleeding goals?

The way a lot of people talk on here, it's as if the Oilers cannot make trades nor free agent signings in the coming years. Our entire roster is not going to be filled with prospects coming up and making the team. When it's time to start contending, Tambellini can/will augment the younger players with solid veterans and role players that can help the team win.

I remember when Tom Poti was run out of Edmonton - Oiler fans were horrible, piling on, name-calling and ignorant. He's pretty happy where he is now, has produced consistently over the past 8 years (pretty much the same numbers that enraged the locals). I don't think he misses you folks.
Tom Gilbert is off to a bad start - and he's playing on weak defensive squad where his theoretical role is offence. While I agree that both he and Penner need to get meaner, it's just not the dominant part of their game.
I also think it's time to give Dubnyk a few games in a row before Khabby gets used to letting in a half-dozen a game.
I can't believe that Smid fell for Avery's ruse. I'm guessing that doesn't happen again.

I would also like to believe that Smid will smarten up after Avery's sucker-punch. However, Smid has consistently shown that he will either put his head down, turn his back, or refuse to get his stick up, any of which could protect him in certain situations. I keep waiting for the Ladislav Smid that will actually protect himself, but it never seems to happen.

Side note, don't ask Avery to fight. Give him some lumber on the legs and/or a glove in the face.

The year before we* booed him off the ice Poti scored 12 goals. He was a minus player, but at least he was scoring goals.

The year he was finally jettisoned he had a single goal and was -6 (he would finish the year -10). He stopped bringing the thing that kept his wacky defensive coverage acceptable.

To your claim that he's been puting up the same numbers in Washington, no. No he has not. His offensive numbers look like they're similar to his final year, but he hasnt had a minus season in a Capitals uniform. In fact, last season he was +26. There is no way that the Oil would have traded him away if he was on pace for a +26 season in Oiler silks.

It took Poti until he was in his late 20's to figure out the defensive game and to stop bleeding goals. Gilbert is now in his late 20's. When does he learn how to stop bleeding goals?

*I used we because I actively participated in booing Poti

Jeff Schultz was +55 last year (or around there)

and yes, the question is "Who the hell is Jeff Schultz"

Its a chicken and egg thing. If Poti was +26 here, we're a President Trophy team, and could give two sh%ts about his defensive play.

+/-, atleast the way the NHL records it, is as much about the other 11 guys on the ice at any given moment.

Statistic say that you are 9% in control of your own plus/minus, all things being equal.