Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes CosmeResidents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.

Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane CenterOn Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Then you know the feeling you had when you saw "those pretzels" and a lot more. It was days before they could get enough water,ice and food to many people.Electric took weeks. I worked up in Port Charlotte for 3 long,hot days with my job from FM because our work building in PC was destroyed. Thank you for understanding.

This imagery was acquired by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division to support NOAA national security and emergency response requirements. In addition, it will be used for ongoing research efforts for testing and developing standards for airborne digital imagery.

NOTE: The date of the photography can be derived from the first 3 characters of the image name. Image names beginning with 243 were acquired Aug 30, 2005, those beginning with 244 were acquired Aug 31, and so on.

Posted By: charley04survivor at 8:33 PM CDT on July 18, 2007. SWFL I agree with you, nobody remembers Punta Gorda which was all but destroyed.

I remember being on WU when Charley was near Punta Gorda and trying to get updates on their current conditions and so many people were logged on to WU, it would take a while to get the readings. They got hit hard.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:17 AM GMT on July 19, 2007. did some one say hurricane

...at least we know Taz "hears" good! lol

...TAZ, you may be right about the blob off SA...we'll know more tomorrow for sure!!! But you know, after you started posting that today, other bloggers here started paying attention. You keep calling 'em like you see 'em, pal!

I was just looking at the lastest GFS run and the one thing that stands out to me is how its developing some areas of weak low pressures and actually takeing them all the way across towards florida indicating the ramp up maybe around the corner.

Those of us that survived Charley are mighty thankful it was a very small eye and small storm that went from a cat 2 to a cat 4 in a matter of hours giving no one the option except to batten down the hatches.Thankful for our alert local weather forcasters we were warned of the intensity and turn inland. Yet no one has ever mentioned the years it has taken Punta Gorda or Port Charlotte to recover....or the devastation of the small towns that it destroyed when it moved inland and up the state.As for Katrina, NO was not the only city affected by that---the whole Gulf Coast into FL was devastated as well.Thanks for Storm W,Patrap,Drakoen for all the work you put into the site..I apologize for not mentioning the rest of the group that gives us more than advice.Thank you.