The Linemakers

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LAS VEGAS -- Bettors have a dilemma to deal recently whenever Clayton Kershaw goes to the mound. There is no disputing that Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in the game, but between his prices being too high and the Dodgers not hitting, Kershaw has been a pass for many his last two times out.

Because he’s so freakishly good, though, bettors have a tough time going against him. Sure, +200 and above sounds appealing, but it’s hard to pull the trigger against Kershaw even at those juicy prices. It’s one thing to say Kershaw might lose, but it’s an entirely different story to go to the bet window and wager that Kershaw will lose. Kershaw is one of the most respected pitchers in Las Vegas.

Those confident that the Dodgers bats would again not come through – and that opposing hitters would be able to get to Kershaw – have been paid quite well. In his last start, the Padres were +230 as they were looking to complete a three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw served up three home runs, and the Padres won, 7-2.

On April 12 at Arizona, Kershaw finally looked to have an affordable price (-150), but the Dodgers didn’t score any runs and lost, 3-0. In his previous two starts, he had to shutout the Pirates, 1-0, and Giants, 4-0, to get wins. In the Giants game, he had to supply the offense with a tie-breaking home run of his own.

So the -140 odds on Kershaw (2-2, 1.88 ERA) today at Citi Field may seem cheap, but it comes with baggage – the Dodgers’ hitters. The good news is that the Dodgers scored seven runs Sunday, matching a season high, and avoided a sweep by beating the Orioles, 7-5. They are now collectively hitting .256.

Perhaps the best news of all if you’re looking for value on Kershaw tonight is that Matt Kemp is finally starting to hit. He still doesn’t have a home run this season, but he did go 3-for-5 on Sunday, matching his Saturday output, and his average has soared to .235. If Kemp’s recent efforts are any indication that he’s bouncing out of the slump, the Dodgers will start winning in bunches.

His first home run will come soon, maybe even tonight against Jonathon Niese (2-1, 3.80). The Mets lost their first game behind Niese in his last start, 11-3, at Colorado, but Niese gave up only three of the runs in six innings. He’s a good pitcher having a steady season thus far, part of the reason Kershaw is only -140.

We’re going to play the guessing game tonight and predict the Dodgers will hit and that Kershaw finds himself in cruise-control mode with a lead. Sometimes you have to sell yourself into a bet. The Dodgers sound good tonight.