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EU delay on Brexit trade deal hits Sturgeon's referendum timetable

Nicola
Sturgeon’s proposals for a vote on Scottish independence within weeks of a
Brexit deal have been thrown into doubt by the EU’s decision to delay a trade
deal.

The first
minister has insisted Scotland must be given a vote on staying in the UK or
independence after the terms of Brexit and once the terms of the UK’s new free
trade deal with the EU are clear and agreed by both sides.

Sturgeon
wrote to the prime minister, Theresa May, on Friday formally requesting talks
on setting up that referendum after the Scottish parliament endorsed her call
for a vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

She cited
that vote and May’s indication in their private talks on Monday that the prime
minister wanted the trade and Brexit deals finalised by March 2019.

Sturgeon
told May in her letter there was “no rational case” for rejecting referendum
talks before then.

But the EU’s
negotiation guidelines, published by European council president Donald Tusk on
Friday morning, have rejected that timetable.

It states that a final trade deal
can only be negotiated and concluded after the UK has left the EU.

It also
warns both sides will need transitional and “bridging” arrangements where EU
regulations would still have to apply to the UK before the trade deal will be
signed, implying it could take considerably longer to complete those talks.

In a blow to
both May and Sturgeon, the EU said initial talks to agree an overall framework
for that trade deal would start only in the final stages of the Brexit
negotiations.

It stated: “Based on the union’s interests, the European council
stands ready to initiate work towards such an agreement, to be finalised and
concluded once the United Kingdom is no longer a member state.”

Sturgeon’s
letter to May was issued several hours after Tusk published the EU’s
guidelines, and in contrast to her combative speech earlier this month
demanding the referendum powers, her letter to signaled she was prepared to
relax her deadline.

Sturgeon
told May she would delay staging it if the Brexit timetable slipped or if more
time was needed to make the terms of Brexit clear.

“If the timetable you have
set out changes, we will require to consider the implications for the timing of
a referendum,” Sturgeon wrote.

“However, it seems reasonable at this stage to
work on the basis of your stated timetable.

“We are also
in agreement that – unlike the EU referendum – the choice must be an informed
one.

That means that both the terms of Brexit and the implications and
opportunities of independence must be clear in advance of the referendum.”

Sturgeon
insisted the Scottish government would play “a full and constructive role in
securing” the best possible Brexit deal for the UK, even though Scottish voters
did not vote last June to leave the EU.

That risked
contradicting warnings from her spokesman on Thursday that Sturgeon could
refuse to support the Brexit legislation if she believed Westminster was
failing to pass on the right EU powers to Holyrood.

Despite
offering to delay the vote if necessary, Sturgeon insisted that talks on
passing those powers to Scotland under a so-called section 30 order should
start as soon as possible.

It should be “a relatively straightforward process”
given both governments had gone through it five years ago to set up the 2014
referendum.

Citing the
Holyrood vote on Tuesday and her manifesto pledge to stage a referendum if the
UK left the EU against Scotland’s will, Sturgeon told May she now had a clear
mandate to pursue a referendum based on Scottish traditions of “popular
sovereignty”.

Downing
Street confirmed May would not agree to those talks before Brexit.

It would be
unfair to the people of Scotland to ask them to make a crucial decision without
the necessary information about our future relationship with Europe, or what an
independent Scotland would look like,” a spokesman said.

Predicting
May would again refuse to agree, Sturgeon warned she would set out a new
strategy to secure that referendum after the Easter holidays – despite the UK
government’s opposition.

“It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish
parliament must be respected and progressed.

The question is not if, but how,”
Sturgeon wrote.

However,
repeated opinion polls show only about 35% of voters agree with her claim a
referendum before Brexit is necessary.

Support for independence is static at
about 45%, with some polls suggesting it is nearer 50%.

In a short
video broadcast on the Scottish government’s Twitter feed, the first minister
took a conciliatory tone by urging yes and no voters to agree there was a clear
moral case for the referendum powers to be handed to Holyrood, even if they did
not back independence.

Kezia
Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, said Sturgeon’s quest for the referendum
would dismay voters and was not based on popular sovereignty.

“There is
absolutely no evidence that another divisive referendum is the will of the
people of Scotland,” she said.

“Holding
another referendum on leaving the UK is the wrong thing to do for Scotland’s
economy, especially when there is so much economic uncertainty from the Tories’
reckless plans for a hard Brexit.”

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