During the review period (2009?2013), the Egyptian construction industry increased in value at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.78%. This was supported by public and private investments in Egyptian infrastructural and commercial construction projects. The participation of the private sector through public-private partnerships (PPPs) has also helped to support construction activities in the country. Political and social uncertainties, however, are expected to lead to comparatively moderate growth rates over the forecast period (2014?2018), compared to the review period. Moreover, the industry’s output growth rate is expected to remain in the range of 13% to 15% over the forecast period, owing to high inflation rates. The construction industry’s output is expected to record a CAGR of 14.50% over the forecast period.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Egypt. It provides:

Historical (2009-2013) and forecast (2014-2018) valuations of the construction industry in Egypt using construction output and value-add methods

Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, institutional and residential) and by project type

Breakdown of values within each project type, by type of activity (new construction, repair and maintenance, refurbishment and demolition) and by type of cost (materials, equipment and services)

Construction is one of the most important industries in the Egyptian economy, contributing 7% to the country’s GDP. Egypt’s construction industry registered low growth during the period of political turmoil in the country. According to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), the construction industry’s output (in real terms) rose by only 2.9% in 2011?2012 and 4.9% in 2012?2013. Owing to political and social turbulence, deterioration in the business environment and high unemployment rates, the construction industry is expected to remain weak in the short term. However, overall outlook for construction in Egypt over the forecast period remains positive.

Industrial construction will be supported by various refinery building projects. Egypt is the largest oil refinery center in Africa, with a combined processing capacity of 975,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 10 refineries. The government has plans to increase production of lighter products, petrochemicals and higher-octane gasoline by expanding and upgrading existing facilities and encouraging new projects. Plans to expand the country’s combined processing capacity by over 600,000 bpd by 2016 are expected to support and sustain the refinery building construction category over the forecast period. Moreover, in a bid to increase the country’s annual fuel output, the Egyptian Minister of Petroleum announced its plan to invest US$18 million until 2017, in order to construct new refineries and modify existing refineries.

The residential construction market is expected to expand over the forecast period, mainly driven by a rising population and increasing levels of urbanization. Egypt is one of the most populous countries in Africa and the Middle East, and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Egypt’s population rose by 10.7%, from 75.2 million people in 2008 to 84.2 million in 2013. The country’s urbanization rate increased from 42.8% in 2001 to 43.7% in 2012. This trend is set to continue, driving up the demand for new housing.

A shortage of raw materials, an uncertain political environment, price controls and excessive government interference in the operation of key industries are among the main obstacles likely to deter the expansion of construction and manufacturing industries over the forecast period. Owing to political and social turbulence, the GDP real growth rate was only 2.2% in 2012, slumping to 1.8% in 2013.

According to CBE figures, the country has registered a steep rise in inflation rates. The consumer price index in the country increased by 13% annually in November 2013, compared with the same period in 2012. With high inflation, a deteriorating business environment and devaluation of the local currency, the real growth rate of the construction industry’s output is expected to remain weak over the forecast period.

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