Ohio congressional districts could see big changes under ballot issue

Sunday

Feb 11, 2018 at 5:57 AM

Jim Siegel The Columbus Dispatch @phrontpage

Bigger districts, more rules and potential bipartisan input mean that several Ohio congressional districts, particularly those around the state’s biggest cities, would see significant changes when the new district map is drawn in 2021.

Ohio’s current congressional map carves up Cleveland, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo and Franklin County in ways that have allowed Republicans to hold 12 of Ohio’s 16 districts, with very few competitive races. Supporters hope that goes away if congressional redistricting reform gets voter approval in May.

Ohio is expected to lose a congressional seat in 2022, a result of slow population growth. That alone changes the dynamics, with Ohio’s 15 districts expected to contain around 780,000 people each, roughly 9 percent bigger than today.

Under the proposed redistricting rules, Cincinnati and Cleveland would have to be drawn entirely inside of a congressional district, and map-makers could no longer chop up Cuyahoga and Summit counties into four districts each.

“I think there certainly will be an improvement to representational fairness, which is whether the overall distribution of districts more or less corresponds with the political preferences of voters,” said Richard Gunther, an Ohio State University political-science professor emeritus who has been heavily involved in the redistricting issue.

“By following these rules, you also will inadvertently create a significant number of competitive districts,” he said.

That doesn’t mean Ohio suddenly will have a dozen competitive seats — Gunther projects four or five. Nor does it mean Democrats would suddenly win eight or nine seats.

The exact rules on drawing the map change depend on whether it’s passed with minority party votes. A bipartisan 10-year map could split 18 smaller counties once and divide five larger counties into three districts each.

However, if the majority goes it alone, then the four-year map could not “unduly” split counties or be drawn to favor or disfavor a party. That, in theory, is supposed to limit splits only to those that are truly necessary to draw a map.

Here's a look at how some current districts would likely change under the new process:

1ST DISTRICT

Incumbent: Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Cincinnati

Current map: Cincinnati and Hamilton County are split into the Republican-leaning 1st and 2nd districts, also splitting black voters roughly 60-40.

Chabot won re-election in 2016 by nearly 19 percentage points — winning the Hamilton County portion by just 4 points, but running up the score by 48 points in heavily Republican Warren County.

Under the plan: Cincinnati, a solidly Democratic city with a population of nearly 300,000, must remain wholly within a district. That could produce a competitive district, or maybe not, depending on how it’s drawn. Currently, about 70 percent of the city’s voters are in the 1st District.

“That will change the dynamic entirely,” Tim Burke, Hamilton County Democratic chairman, said of putting all of Cincinnati into one seat. A full district also would fit inside Hamilton County, something Burke prefers, noting the county has voted for a Democratic president in three straight elections.

“When you divide a very solid African-American community, you’ve destroyed their impact as a voting bloc in both congressional districts,” he said of the current map. “We have two congressmen who don’t have to count on the city of Cincinnati voters to get them elected.”

9TH DISTRICT

Incumbent: Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo

Current map: The infamous “Snake on the Lake” district is classic gerrymandering, sweeping up Democrats in Toledo and western Cleveland — linked by the Sandusky Bay bridge — to help Republicans hold other seats.

Under the plan: This district breaks just about every new anti-gerrymandering rule, in text or spirit, and it’s a safe bet no new map will link two major cities more than 100 miles apart.

Drawing a district that includes Lucas County (Toledo) would likely create a competitive seat in northwest Ohio. Splitting Toledo or the county could produce different results.

11TH DISTRICT

Incumbent: Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Cleveland

Current map: Ohio’s only district with a majority black population (51 percent), looks like someone poked a hole in Cleveland, causing it to spill into Akron. It includes heavily Democratic areas of both cities.

Under the plan: Cleveland would be drawn entirely inside a congressional district (making up about half of that district). A full district easily can fit within Cuyahoga County, though it is not required under a 10-year map.

This district could still be drawn down into Akron — but why? Experts say it is not necessary to specifically draw a "majority-minority" district, and some say it would be impossible anyway under larger districts.

Shontel Brown, chairwoman of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party, said she favors having the county split into only two districts. With less gerrymandering, Democrats could either pick up a seat in northeastern Ohio, or at least have one that’s more competitive. How the 11th District is drawn could have a major impact on that.

12TH/15TH DISTRICTS

Incumbents: The open seat in the 12th District was formerly held by Rep. Pat Tiberi, R-Genoa Township. The 15th District seat is held by Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington.

Current map: These districts surround much of Columbus, which is packed into the 3rd District, now held by Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Blacklick.

Under the plan: One expert called Franklin County a geographic nightmare for mapping purposes, and an entire "tortured" section of the ballot issue is dedicated to the county.

Columbus is a sprawling spider web in which Ohio's largest city encloses seven political subdivisions and nine townships, while touching or entering four neighboring counties. This creates challenges when trying to not split political units and keeping districts contiguous within a county.

It’s likely that the current 3rd District won’t change too much. Democrats support a seat with a 30 percent black population, and Republicans are happy to pack Democratic voters into this district.

So what happens to the roughly 500,000 people in Franklin County not drawn into that Columbus-dominated district? The current map splits the rest of the county into the 12th and 15th districts, making both solid GOP seats when added to other, more rural counties, and that could still happen under rules for drawing a 10-year map.

However, it could be difficult to justify splitting Franklin County into more than two districts for reasons other than politics. Limiting it to two seats means it's more likely that a competitive seat is created in central Ohio. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 12 points in the Franklin County territory outside of Beatty’s district.

16TH DISTRICT

Incumbent: open seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Renacci, R-Wadsworth

Current map: Drawing a safe Republican seat in northeastern Ohio requires some creative map-making, and this district splits five counties.

Under the plan: Limits on county splits would impact this district. If there are major changes to the adjoining, Democratic-packed 11th and 13th districts around Akron and Cleveland, it has the potential to make the 16th district more competitive.