Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur were shut down for the year because the peasant Royals want to give Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson a full three days to show their worth. Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17. Terrific! Wonderful! Tonderific! But if you peak under the hood, things aren’t as they seem. His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors. His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up. His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected. He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals. With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average. That’s far from spectacular. That’s spectaculess. I just made that up; you like it? You use it. As for Frenchy, his line was 77/20/87/.285/22. Oh, well, that looks pretty normal– Wait a second, 22 steals?! Where the eff in the effhole did those come from? His previous high was 8. He always failed to take pitches like he needed some ADHD medicine, but now he’s running the bases like it too. “Sorry, first base coach, whatever your name is, can’t stay at 1st, gotta run, peace!” That’s Frenchy, and he can’t even stop for a period at the end of sentences; he only has time for commas. He’s always been a notorious bad ball hitter. This year Frenchy swung at 41% of balls outside the strike zone, which is actually high for him, and his percentage of balls swung at inside the strike zone was actually down. Only thing that changed this year, he made more contact with pitches outside of the strike zone. If that stops along with his whacked out of his mind stealing, he may use 2012 to revert to his old ways, so it’ll be hard to give Frenchy my arrondissement. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into the roundup, I just wanted to announce a very good friend of mine is putting on a one man show in Los Angeles. If you go see the play, you may just run into yours truly and my significant other — my mustache. If you can’t make it to Los Angeles or if you’re in Los Angeles but afraid to leave your house, you can buy his book. Anyway II, the roundup:

Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 21st homer. Hey, that homer can drink legally! After Pence sat out for three games with a sore knee, it was good to see him return, unless you had him on your bench like I did. Sonavabench!

Francisco Liriano – 1/3 IP, 5 ER in middle relief. How’d he go from one of the best arms in the game to mop up duty? When Dr. James Andrews tells people 9 out of 10 pitchers agree with the good doctor, I think I know which one doesn’t agree. “I feel like Bruno Mars’s forehead, big and empty!” That’s Liriano talking through a translator.

Wilson Ramos – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three starts. I specify his last three starts, because the Nats have been sitting him every other game. It’s really important to get at-bats for Pudge, whose nickname wasn’t always ironic, and Jesus Flores? Rhetorical!

Stephen Strasburg – Nats announced he would have an innings limit next year. The GM said that innings limit has been semi-calculated. The equation he used was pretty straightforward: A Reinjured Strasburg = No Job.

Wade Davis – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks. Nice end to what’s been a pretty terrible season. His K-rate was atrocious and it wasn’t like he was getting unlucky with his 4.45 ERA. Usually the third year a starter is in the majors is when their breakthrough comes, which next year will be for Davis, but I don’t have high hopes here.

Jason Bay – Didn’t play Sunday and was pulled from Saturday’s game because of illness. Illness sounds like it should be managing the Mets.

Nolan Reimold – 2-for-4 with his fourth homer in the last ten games; also he’s hitting .300 over the last week. He’s either hitting really well recently, or it’s an illusion to get people to draft him again next year.

Robert Andino – 1-for-2 with a steal. After 136 games, he has 13 steals with 4 coming in the last week. I don’t get that. Did he just suddenly realize he’s fast? Was he auditing a summer class from the University of Phoenix on base stealing and he just passed? If you have speed, then run.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 6 ER. On the year, he gave up 59 earned runs in… Guess how many innings. Wait for it… Here it comes… Wait, where did I put it?… How did it end up in my glove compartment? Anyway, in 49 2/3 innings. That gives him the worst single-season ERA in MLB history (10.69). On the bright side, for the record he beat Halladay’s 10.64 ERA of 2000. Then again, Halladay was throwing with his left hand that season.

Grady Sizemore – Shut down for the year. Backdate that to the moment his flash went off in front of a mirror. Use any definition of the word flash you’d like.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left Saturday’s game with an elbow contusion and didn’t play Sunday. On a side note, I think Asdrubal should follow Ichiro’s lead and have just Asdrubal on his jersey. Imagine parents taking their kids to a game and covering their eyes when they see Asdrubal.

Felix Hernandez – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks and was pulled from the game after being hit by a comebacker. Over the winter, I want a 500 word essay from him about what he did this summer that made me no longer love him.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit a homer in his third straight game, then left due to lightheadedness. After the game, he said he prefers Amstel Light-headedness.

Matt Holliday – 2-for-7 over the weekend as he returned. La Russa, wearing a jacket made from veggie burgers, said as long as Holliday’s healthy, he’s going to be out there. Now it’s a judgment call whether you should play him. I wouldn’t necessarily go back to him if I had options that were hitting.

Jose Bautista – After crashing into a wall, he stayed in the game for five innings only to then leave with a knee injury. I think he should be fine. My mom was right, I could’ve been a doctor. “But, mom, there’s a whole lot more zeroes in blogging. Though that’s not zeroes as in money.”

Brett Cecil – 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER and ends the year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Somehow, I’ll find a way to make him seem attractive yet again next year; you just wait and see!

Carlos Gonzalez – As reported here first on Friday after inferring shizz from other sources, CarGo is done for the year. As I said in the preseason, “He’s a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy. Those day-to-day things can turn into more.” And that’s me quoting me!

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his 28th homer. I’d put $5 on The Other White Meat getting to 30 homers, if I were a betting man. Okay, if I were a betting man on things I actually know and not just random rolls of a die.

Torii Hunter – 1-for-3 with a steal yesterday, and a homer on Friday and Saturday. Not the same homer, that would be weird.

Vernon Wells – Slam & legs yesterday and 4 homers in the last 8 games. You looking at his 25 homers and 9 steals on the year, “Hey, Vernon Wells had a good year? Who knew?” You looking at his average, “He hit .220? Crimey a river, Justin Timberlake.”

Adrian Beltre – 3-for-4 with his 30th homer and 101st RBI while hitting .293. I don’t get it, is he gonna try to renegotiate his contract?

Ian Kinsler – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a homer and two steals. Totally just padding his stats to get to 30/30 and I love it. This is why all players should have to own themselves in an H2H league with 50% of their contract in their fantasy league pot. I wonder if the union will go for it.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and he’s 7 for his last 13. Can you tell I don’t want the season to end? This is like the longest roundup ever. Bonifacio is hot, moving on…

Ricky Nolasco – 2 IP, 6 ER. Ends the season with a 4.67 ERA. Somehow, he’ll be hyped again next year by everyone but me. “Hey, ESPN analcyst here, and I want you to look at Nolasco’s strikeout to walk ratio. He’s awesome!”

Clayton Kershaw – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and his 21st win to go along with his 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 248 Ks. Even with an injured knee, that had Ethier dancing.

Justin Upton – Left the game after being hit in the head by a Lincecum fastball. Tests are showing no signs of a concussion. Too bad. I was hoping he’d return as Jason Bourne and bring down Justin Morneau for trying to kill my fantasy teams.

I remember watching 1 of his starts earlier in the season on MLB gameday and half his fastballs were being misclassified as changeups. But when you’re only bringin the 84 MPH junkball “heat,” I can understand how the system getting confused.

My wife is playing fantasy baseball for the first time this year. She chose ‘Neau to Morneau’ as her team name, because a few years ago when we were at a Twins game, he didn’t take his hat off for the singing of the national anthem. He just kind of stood around looking concussed.

Grey, posted last by mistake. I need 4 of those guys and BA could be a one point swing as well. Obviously opportunity is key. Was going to bench Pena and Guzman (the neck), but I see Guzman is back (in SD of course).

Wanted to bench Werth but whenI checked the stats he was one of my better performers last 2 weeks (yeah, I know – my team is limiping home).

Although I was frustrated with Longoria for much of the year it seemed, he could still finish with 30/100 and that was with a month off. The average could be higher, but you take the good with the bad.

Blessing in disguise that I perhaps missed the playoffs because Verlander/Lester laid some nice eggs this weekend!

grey,
you bring up an interesting point about BABIP. but are there any other players who could sustain production despite having a high BABIP all their years in the majors?i jut hate to think alex gordon will decrease in production next year is all.

Because Yahoo locks 2nd game lineups in a double header even for friggin’ pitchers, I was forced to start a pitcher who’s name I can’t barely say and who I never would have as all my morning starts went well. Well, looks like it’s cost me the league courtesy of a thousandth of a decimal point costing me a full point in the era standings. Apolgies but needed to vent – I’m a lil cranky this gloomy morn.

Grey this is prompted by but not directed at you cause I know you’re mostly joking and stuff.

Adrian Beltre is a good example of how powerful the influence of narrative (as opposed to quantative, more objective criteria) can be.

The story on Beltre is that he juices up or only puts in effort in contract years. But the numbers tell a different story. Beltre is basically a monster since the age of 25 whenever he doesn’t play his home games in Seattle. There was never any evidence objective or subjective from Seattle that he did anything but play hard and get out on the field. He averaged 143 games played and had three seasons of 25+ home runs. It’s just that Safeco is a really tough home park in a very tough division of parks and pitching.

There was never any reason to think he’d be anything other than an upper tier 3b this year and if you believed the stuff about him being a contract year only guy, you missed out.

I have an outside chance to get to 113 and finish third. Hoping to hang on to a top 5 in RCL. Been a good season all around. My first year lurking around Razzball and if I haven’t said it, thanks much, dude. Good writing, good knowledge, good fun, good commenters, fun leagues.

Yeah…like I said I knew you were joking on Beltre (it’s your job, man!) But it’s one of my favorite topics: what’s a story and what’s evidence.

Couple of things definitely helped. The pre-season discussions and the draft spreadsheet tool for sure. Also keeping me dialed into player moves. Much more fun than just looking at transaction lists etc. You guys put a lot of effort into the site I’m sure and it shows.

No visible effort but the sheer amount of quality content that gets churned out is impressive. I’m pretty sure you guys didn’t miss a morning all year. Plus afternoon update and responding to comments? Solid work.

Hey hey sir, first of; I wanted to that you kindly for the time you’ve taken to respond to my brief inquiries this season. I’m certain I speak for everyone when I say that it’s much appreciated. Looking forward to next season man! Final question for the season; Vargas vs Oak or Paulino @ Min today? I’m looking for the ever fluke-ish Win today. Thanks again Grey and enjoy the offseason,

@Grey: Yeah, I’m a Grandy believer, as well. Can’t wait to see how much auction money my Fanny Pick Yankee fan league mates throw at him next year.

Saw you asked, so I loaded Razzball on my iPad 2 with no crash (on both Safari and Terra). It actually loaded quite quickly compared to a few weeks ago.

Feeling conversational today. If you’re too busy setting commenters’ playoff lineups, feel free to put me on “ignore.” With the documentary airing tomorrow, was wondering what’s your feeling on the Steve Bartman situation? Personally, I can understand (ignorant) fans being mad at the guy, but when professional journalists join the mob, I don’t get it. Since when did it become taboo for a spectator to put his hand out to catch a ball that’s well in foul territory? It’s not like he leaned over the wall or was even close to it. In fact, to the contrary, Alou was the one reaching into the fans’ territory. This is not to mention that a half dozen other people were also reaching for the ball… or that the Cubs managed to not only give up eight runs without Bartman’s assistance, but also lost a Game 7 without him anywhere near the ballpark. Seems ridiculous to me that there’s even a discussion, let alone a documentary.

@Awesomus Maximus: Yay, that’s great news about it not crashing iPads. Wait, what documentary? This sounds like something I might want to Tivo. As for Bartman, it was a culmination of so much, and he didn’t even lose the game for them. But imagine this for a second, he wasn’t some dorky looking guy with a walkman, but instead a cool looking guy who just shrugged off all the press and made light of it. Would the treatment had been the same?

Hey Grey, thanks again for helping me this season. It’s now down to the wire in my 12 team roto league. I’ve picked up a bunch of SP’s in hope of making the final push (I’ve got 9 IP left until I reach the max) so what do you think of starting the following guys:
Delgado home v Philly
Marcum home v Pitt
Vargas home v Oak
Jhoulys away v SF
Axelrod (who?) home v Tor
Slowey home v KC
Schumdin (huh?) home v Cincy
Do you think I should start these guys or wait until tomorrow or Wed to pick up a bunch of SP’s for the final push? I’m hanging on by a thread with WHIP and ERA but I could use the Wins and K’s. What would you recommend? Oh, almost forgot this is for 1st place.

@Grey: I know what you mean… he played the role of scapegoat (no pun intended) too well. My issue isn’t with the fans who blame him; these are the same people who loot when “their” team wins, riot when they lose, and beat people almost to death if they show up in the opposing team’s gear. My issue is with the lack of responsibility members of the media show when they add fuel to the fire.

The documentary is on ESPN tomorrow night, 8PM ET, called Catching Hell.

@Jake: Some of those are terrible. I went with tomorrow in most of my leagues and the day to push all the SPs. If you go tomorrow, from Axelrod down are bad.

@Awesomus Maximus: I’ll Tivo it. I hear you on the media’s role in perpetuating the Bartman goof, makes for ratings, that’s all they care about. I blame the media more for what a big deal they made of steroids after the fact, but were no where to be found when people were hitting 70 homers a year. On a related note, I’d like to see a dating show on VH1 with Bartman.

@Grey: I busted through the GS envelope yesterday in the RCL. 5 Wins with a 2.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP is not too shabby, but I’ll be passed in Ws and Ks soon enough I expect. Real damage was done by the hitters post-ASB of course.

All MRs and closers for me now. BTW, I couldn’t actually bring myself to drop Kershaw outright – he didn’t deserve that. Just left him on the bench (emoticon). I’ve been playing fantasy since ’03 but I don;t think I’ve ever owned a starting pitcher that had a better year.

So Belt and Sands? I like Yonder Alonso a lot, and he is the higher rated prospect, but I am worried that he won’t get regular at bats in Cincinnati since Dusty Baker historically doesn’t play rookies. Plus their outfield is crowded.

If the Rangers actually go through with moving Feliz to the starting rotation next season who do you see as the closer if they stay in house with Uehara and Adams? I’m in a dynasty league with my four closers as Axford, Storen, Soria, and Street. Was looking to dump Street as he seems to fallen behind Betancourt in the closers pecking order, afraid the Rockies may move Street and he ends up in a set up role somewhere next season. Looks like a coin flip to me.

Have you ever tried a Postseason Fantasy Baseball League? I’ve got a few buddies trying it with me this year to see what it’s like. Seems to be sort of like March Madness brackets with a bit of strategy involved.

read your response (#24) to Awesomus Maximus and my initial
response was “wait . what ? why is Grey giving us the dorky guy/cool guy
scenario ? is he revealing to us something about himself ? has he
always secretly longed to be the cool guy ?”

and then , i thought , to portray bartman’s victim-ness in a more
convincing manner , you should have used Morganna catching the ball
between her breasts , as an example .
better yet , what if alou had actually buried his face in her cleavage ,
and missed the ball because of that ?

and then , the thought occurred to me that i’m not a big buxom blonde ,
so the whole dork “insight” theory probably wouldn’t hold up in court .