Diffusion of Farm Tractor in India from 1960 to 2012: Patterns and Prospects

India has one of the largest tractor industry in the world. However, the average tractor use in India is still lower by the world standard, and a huge disparity exists on its uses across states (regions) in the country. With a sharply declining trend in draft animal over the years increased use of farm tractors (and machinery) is inevitable in India now to increase crop productivity, sustain farm households’ income, and rural economic growth. In this context, the objectives of this study are a) to analyze growth pattern of tractor uses across India during the last four decades, then b) to evaluate process, speed of diffusion, and ceiling of diffusion of tractors across various. The study analyze diffusion of four wheel tractors in India using the diffusion study framework of Griliches (1957). This has been done taking data on tractor use across 14 major states of India during the last four decades. The study finds that state-specific ceiling rate and slope of diffusion of tractors hugely vary across the 14 states of India. The empirical analyses show that tractor uses have expanded tremendously in India, specially after liberalization of its economy in early 1990s, and the simultaneous liberalization of the tractor industry polices. At all India level, the ceiling level tractor will be more than double the number of tractors now, and it will be achieved only in late 2050s. This suggest that tractor uses will continue to grow in India even in the coming few decades, with a more widespread adoption across the states and regions of the country.