UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL TIMELINE FOR ACA “REPEAL AND REPLACE”

posted on Friday, January 06, 2017

By Michaela Keller, NACHC Federal Affairs Staff

Now that the 115th Congress is underway, it is
expected that Republicans will move ahead quickly to fulfill one of
their top campaign promises - repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
With a majority in both the House and Senate, Republicans are
charting a course to send a repeal bill to the President-Elect,
possibly within the next two months. However, a repeal of this kind
is easier said than done and major obstacles - including the
lack of consensus on an alternative, the desire to maintain certain
aspects of the law and the continued opposition and concern being
expressed by a number of health care stakeholders - may
quickly change the course of this plan. Understanding the steps
involved in Congressional process will help advocates better track
the debate. Here are a few of the major actions related to a repeal
plan that we are likely to see in Congress over the next couple of
weeks and months:

Senate Budget Resolution Vote

The Senate is planning to vote in early January on a budget
resolution that will include instructions to repeal large parts of
the Affordable Care Act through reconciliation. As you may recall,
reconciliation is the process by which legislation in the Senate
can pass with a simple majority (51 votes) rather than 60 votes as
required for major pieces of legislation; however, any legislation
passed through reconciliation must only involve budget-related
changes, meaning that any changes that do not have a fiscal impact
cannot be included.

The budget resolution process in the Senate will likely take
several days and will culminate in what many call a "vote-a-rama"
or a series of several votes that will take place over several
hours and potentially stretch long though the day and night.

House Budget Resolution Vote

Once the Senate passes the budget resolution with reconciliation
instructions, the action shifts to the House, which will move
quickly take up a vote to pass the resolution. Predictions are that
this vote will occur prior to Inauguration Day on January
20th.

It is important to note that while the budget resolution is the
first step in the process of repealing the Affordable Care Act,
nothing happens to the ACA just yet - it merely sets up Congress
for the next step in the process, which is to introduce a repeal
bill.

Repeal Bill Moves Forward

The process of introducing repeal legislation will begin in the
House, given that it must comply will the rules of reconciliation
to include only budget-related changes and any bills that have an
impact on revenue must originate in the House. The House Committees
with jurisdiction over health care, including Energy and Commerce
and Ways and Means, will start this process in the House by marking
up legislation that they will then send to the House Budget
Committee, which will craft a repeal bill.

House Repeal Bill Vote

The House Ways and Means repeal bill will eventually go to the
House floor to be voted on. The expectation is that the House
repeal bill will look similar to the repeal bill that was passed by
both the House and Senate but vetoed by President Obama in 2015.
While that bill did not fully repeal the ACA, it did repeal many of
its major tenets, including Medicaid expansion, premium tax
credits, and the individual and employer mandates, among other
provisions (check out our blog post on that bill
here).

Senate Repeal Bill Vote

Once the House votes on its repeal bill, it will go to the
Senate. It's not clear at this point whether the bill will go
through the Senate Committees with jurisdiction or go right to the
Senate floor for a vote. Once a bill comes to the floor, there will
likely be extensive debate, with Republicans looking to potentially
include additional repeal provisions from the ACA and Democrats
looking to force several votes on specific provisions included in
the bill.

Conference Committee/ House Vote

If the Senate votes on passing a bill that is different than the
House passed bill, either a conference committee will be formed to
deal with the changes or the House will vote on the Senate passed
bill. It is anticipated that this process will take place rather
quickly.

Repeal Bill Signed into Law

By this point, the President-Elect will be sworn into office and
the final repeal bill that Congress agrees upon will be sent to the
President's desk to be signed into law.

While we will likely continue to hear talk about a "replace"
plan while the repeal bill is debated, it is much less clear when,
and in what form, we will see what Congress's plan for
"replace" will include. As you've heard before and will continue to
hear, fundamental changes to the health care system will be debated
over the coming weeks, months and potentially years - changes that
could greatly impact the work of health centers and impact the
patients we serve. None of these actions is a foregone conclusion,
but advocates need to be informed and engaged. That's why we'll be
keeping a close eye on how that debate unfolds and will continue to
keep you updated as this process moves along.