I have been “mistaken,” “misled,” “misrepresented,” and been “unaccountably in error,”
and am sorry if you have been offended

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Why Is the LDP Playing Nice?

The LDP is now willing to take up the deficit
bond authorization bill in the Lower House Budget Committee and select members
for the Committee for the
Comprehensive Reform of
Tax and Social Security and Tax, not to mention moving forward with the
five-up, five-down mini-reform for the lower house. There are several very good
post facto explanations for this change of heart. First, the LDP has
historically been more attentive to pleas from Keidanren and other business authorities,
who, already un-amused by the government belt-tightening on top of the global
and regional disturbance, will be beyond livid if the LDP and DPJ manage
against all odds to drive the Japanese economy over the fiscal cliff. Second,
the LDP is ahead. It does not need a game-changer. It will be content to play
the equivalent of a possession game, making sure that the opponent doesn’t get
an opportunity to score.

Doesn’t
the LDP want an early election? Yes, but not at all costs. Push too hard and it
runs the risk of pushing Noda off the cliff. If Noda’s position deteriorates
further, it could precipitate further DPJ defections, all but forcing the DP to
call for what will surely be a successful no-confidence resolution. If Noda
calls a snap election, fine. But he is more likely to resign and let a
caretaker prime minister call the snap election. What kind of a birthday bump
would, say, a Prime Minister Goshi Hosono receive? That has the potential of an
LDP nightmare in the making. In fact, Noda may anticipate his demise and resign
without waiting for the resolution. Which brings me to my third point: better
to escort Noda to the goal line if need be to make sure that he fulfills his
promise to chikai uchi ni call a snap
election. And if that allows Noda to carry on for a few extra months and put a
few feathers in his cap along the way, so be it; that’s a small price to pay
for a stab at four years of plenty. Speaking of which, a double election in
July is looking mighty attractive…

No, I don’t
think the LDP wants to stretch it that far, for that would mean that the Noda
administration will have stocked its items inventory with the FY2012
supplemental budget, the FY2013 regular budget, and some meaningful legislation.
Still, the LDP appears to be playing not to lose. And that buys time for Noda
and the DPJ, and time can do so much. Stay tuned.

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About Me

After graduation, Jun Okumura promptly entered what is now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and stayed in in its ecosystem most of his “adult” life. Along the way, he had pleasant stops in an assortment of Japanese quangos (Japangos?), overseas assignments and government agencies. After thirty years, though, it dawned on him that he had no aptitude whatsoever for administration and/or management. Armed with this epiphany, he went to the authorities and arranged an amicable separation; to come out, as it were. He is completely on his own IYKWIAS, but he and the METI folks remain “good friends.” He currently holds the titles of “visiting researcher” at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs (no, that MIGA) and counselor at a risk analysis firm that dares not speak its name. This gives him plenty of time to blog or make money on his own. His bank account says that he does too much of the first, and insists that he do more of what he calls “intellectual odd jobs”. He wants to be paid to write fulltime, or better, talk—where the easy money is—but that distinction has largely escaped him. He really should not be referring to himself in the third person; he is not that famous.