Saturday, June 30, 2007

Friend of mine sent this to me.I don't want to hear from the Minneapolis public schools or any of these leftist "we-need-more-money-for-education" cheerleaders telling me they need more money.

COSMETOLOGIST????? OJIBWE?????

WHY ARE WE PAYING HARD EARNED TAX DOLLARS TO TEACH COSMETOLOGY AND A DEAD LANGUAGE????

I can understand cosmetology in that it teaches a trade, but jeez, talk about low expectations! What, just because they go to the inner city schools they'll never become doctors or engineers? So let's set them up to become salonists???

And Ojibwe???? I'm sure it's interesting, but how is teaching a dead language going to help a student find a job???

Friday, June 29, 2007

They pioneered rallying against "the man" and may have made "Corporate America" a four-letter word, but the Baby Boomers may yet come to appreciate Corporate America just yet in that it may just save their asses when it comes to retirement.

During the Dotcom Mania days and the successive crash, I was somewhat concerned that with 401k's, IRA's and the bevy of other retirement programs out there that these programs would incentive people (namely the Baby Boomer generation) to flood the stock market with retirement dollars, artificially driving up prices only to crash when the Baby Boomers retire and start pulling their money from the stock market. I noted this as the S&P 500's P/E ratio has never been below it's historical average since 1928 of 15 ever since the Baby Boomers entered their prime earning years in the late 80's. The S&P 500 P/E ratio didn't even drop below its average after the stock market crash suggesting there was a lot of excess cash floating around.

However, what amazes me is that even with this excess cash in the market AND the recent bull market, I would have sworn when I updated my charts that the S&P 500 P/E ratio would have skyrocketed again as America went back to mindlessly flooding the stock market with their retirement dollars. But no such thing has happened. Actually, the S&P 500's P/E ratio suggests the markets are accurately valued, borderline sane with the P/E ratio hovering around 16, just a smidge over the historical average.

With a bull market driving prices sky high, mathematically the only culprit that could be keeping the P/E ratio down is profits, and sure enough that's what it is.Corporate profits in America have reached an all time high as a percent of GDP of just over 10%. This not only provides merit to the recent bull market, giving it some underlying value, but also suggests that a "Baby Boomer Crash" may not ensue as the Baby Boomers start to retire and switch their investments from equities to bonds. Corporate America, evil and vile as it may be, might just be able to keep the profits up making the stock market a viable and wise long term investment and making sure millions have the money in their retirement accounts.

Of course, I'd be curious to see what would happen to corporate profits when we enter a recession triggered by a housing bubble. But that certain isn't a possibility now is it?

Friday, June 22, 2007

My economic spidey senses were tingling. And although not based in research, data and statistics, those spidey senses have rarely been wrong. They were triggered when I noticed a good third of my friends have either been laid off or quit their jobs. Anecdotal, I admit. Could be completely wrong? I admit. That being said, I think we're in for an unpleasant surprise here pretty soon. I predict unemployment is going to jump. I'd say to 4.9-5% or so.But that is just my economic spidey senses.

Friday, June 15, 2007

OK, so reunification of Germany started in 1990. How long does it take the East to get its act together?16%???? And this is after the Hartz V reforms. I wish there was a chart showing long term unemployment rates between the West and the East.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

So I hit Drudge and there were two pictures on the page that tell volumes of the differences between the "West" and the radicals in the "Middle East".

In one photo you have a bunch of Hamas militants pointing their AK-47's in the air claiming victory because they captured Fatah's key power points. While there's an astronaut hovering in space and something or other about them fixing a computer.And I ask this as a serious question, but who do you really think has the bigger achievement and what does that tell you of the pettiness of the other's achievement?

"El" has linked to me for a while and I feel guilty in not returning the link. You will read him. You will confirm.

Now wouldn't that be great? A world where all conforms to Cappy Cap's orders. Ahhh, one can only dream. Selma Heyek would be serving me martini's now whilst reading "The Wealth of Nations" with that entrancing accent of her's. Now that I think about it, how many more economics majors would there be if Selma Heyek were the professor?

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

I remember, not too long ago, students at the University of Minnesota complaining about the increases in tuition. They went on protest as uneducated, brainwashed young skulls full of mush are wont to do. Yet, while these poor students will always contest they can't afford the increase in tuition, they certainly seem to have enough money to spend it on beer and booze at the local bars in Dinkytown and Stadium Village. And I always said, "when these bars start to noticed a slip in sales, that will be the true economic sign that tuition costs have risen to the point the students truly cannot afford those increases. In the meantime, increase away."

But we adults are not guilt free either. For we complain about the price of gas, but rarely do we look at our personal expenditures to see exactly how much gas is costing us. So I went to the BEA and pulled the national income accounts to see how much the typical American spends on gas as a percent of their total income and today it is at 2.4%.

Now albeit at a recent high, compared to the 1950's we spent nearly 3% of our income on gas whereas during the oil embargo we spent 3.75%. And we're complaining about 2.4%?

But where we really ought to be ashamed, similar to the college students complaining about tuition when they have no reservations about spending $50 a night on booze, we spend roughly the same amount on clothing and shoes. And this despite a precipitous drop in the real price of clothing as we import textiles from China, India and the Pacific Rim;Now I don't know about you, but I literally spend no more than $100 a year on clothes. Boxer shorts, jeans and socks taking up the majority of that expenditure. So I can't imagine spending anywhere NEAR the same amount on clothes as I do gas. And sneaking a peek into some of the closets of my female friends, not to mention I don't think I've seen them wear the same pair of shoes twice (ahem, FED EX!), methinks I have found the culprit for the large expenditure on clothes.

Regardless, before you get upset about spending $3 per gallon at the pump, you might want to check to see how much you dropped on that latest pair of shoes or what your tab was last night at the bar or maybe add up how much you dropped on cigarettes this week.

Monday, June 11, 2007

A reader sent this to me.Cripes. Again, and I mean this in the truest sense of the word, it is a bold face LIE.

They are lying, as in not telling the truth, as in posing information that is incorrect. I don't see Social Security anywhere and they've been able to massage the figures to (how convenient) get the military budget up to 51%. It really begets the question whether they even bothered looking at the Federal government's budget. And it further points out that there are people in the world that would rather live in a false world that unfairly benefits them at the cost of the rest of society and will gladly let their ideology form their "truths" instead of the truth form their ideology.

And good lord, I've never seen such a budgetary allowance to the HR department! Catbert would become dictator supreme if that percent of the US budget was given to an HR department.

I had a friend a while ago that was a single mother. Got pregnant when she was 16, was a party girl, didn't really take her life seriously, drank, let her folks bring up the kid, didn't study in school and then one day the parents cut the purse strings.

Faced with the harsh realities of not just self-supportation, but the supporting of a child, she managed it for about a year before she (you guessed it) "found Jesus." And I always found it interesting how people who can't deal with the harsh realities of life always become born agains and "find Jesus."

And it basically boils down to something as simple as this;

People will goof up. People will make mistakes. You can either be a man about it, admit you made those mistakes, face up to those mistakes and live with the consequences or go find some excuse as to why it isn't your fault. And the latter case is the born agains and that is why I cannot stand them.

For it is has nothing to do with the noble purposes of religion (salvation, repentance, etc.) but to shield the ego of a person who does not have the character and wherewithal to be an adult and look at themselves in the mirror and say, "I goofed up."

Now I know Christianity isn't the only religion out there where people will abuse seeking for something else to make their lives easier or explain why their lives suck. If you are a poor young Arab the local imam may trick you into believing that it's Israel and foreign powers intervening in your life, making you poor, thereby incentiving you to go and join Islam and blow yourself up. I remember a woman desperately trying to marry a Jewish man so her son could become Jewish. I even remember one particularly intellectually weak-minded person that joined Christianity because she got in trouble for stealing a pair of pants in middle school (akin what Hilton above has done). But whatever the reason, the true reason for joining the religion is avoid serious self evaluation, criticism and blame and to make your life easier by jettisoning your responsibility for your actions and your situation. It is ulterior to the true purpose of the religion and is an insult to that religion. They're hypocrites.

But Christianity is different and is why I theorize it attracts more born agains (like Paris). And the reason I say this is two fold;

1. The forgiveness aspect. Hey, you could have kills a bunch of kindergartners, punched some nuns or been Hitler and as long as you ask for forgiveness, you are forgiven.

Are you joking me? This is the big attraction to those where reality or the authorities have caught up with and are now going to suffer punishment. Living life as if they are above all others, when revenge is about to take its toll, then they start to search for an excuse for their behavior. Having none, how convenient there's a bible there. And how convenient according to this doctrine you are forgiven. It absolves a person of any personal responsibility. This still doesn't change the fact my friend's kid has grown up in poverty is not going to have a decent shot of getting out of it.

2. The "Fateism" or "Calvinistic" aspect of religion. That everything is in God's hands or fated to happen. That God has a plan and you have no ability to control or change the outcome. I don't know how many times I've seen the direct consequences of an action a Christian friend of mine has made and when I asked them, "why did that happen?" "Well, God has a plan." Yes, a plan. I'm sure this morning when I woke up, God planned me to have a Rooster Booster light. My personal tastes and preferences had nothing to do with it. I was powerless, I really wanted a diet Coke, but God forced my hand to grab the Rooster Booster. Just as I'm sure it was God's plan for Mao Zedong to wipe out 40 million Chinese. Mao was completely powerless. Hey, he didn't want to wipe out all those people, he wanted to help them. But God had a plan. And I'm sure God made my friend have unprotected sex at 15 so she had a kid and has since lived in poverty.

But think about this aspect of Christianity (or at least the Calvinism sect of it) and how it again absolves you of any personal responsibility. And how convenient it must be for people whose lives just got too difficult for them to face. "Hey, it's not your fault, God has a plan."

So here's the deal people. I'm not a particularly religious fellow, but I do respect religion. And I don't much care to see people pervert and abuse a religion for purposes it wasn't intended for. So the next time you run into trouble do us all a great big favor, don't become an intellectual weakling and say "you found Jesus." That doesn't excuse your behavior or any of the bad things you've done to society. All it's done is convince you in your own little mind that you're still an OK person. Be an adult, be a responsible person, pay your dues and face the music. You'll get more respect from society and probably true forgiveness.

Friday, June 08, 2007

I am truly indifferent to Paris Hilton. If she died tomorrow I wouldn't really care, which I surmise is the same opinion most of you share here. The only genuine intellectual thought I have of Hilton is "If I had access to the billions in capital she has, how much more I could do with it than her."

Regardless there is just something about seeing a spoiled little brat who thought she was above the law and money could buy her way out of any legal trouble, get dealt the crushing blow that, "No, you stupid b!tch, you aren't special. You're just like every one of us. Get in line and deal with it. Welcome to the real world kid."

And no, I won't claim that it is beneath me to derive joy from this.The judge who ordered her back should be given a medal.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Arguably the most inciting and controversial thing I've said many times in my life is when speaking to a woman;

"You do not determine whether you are beautiful or attractive, let alone what is beautiful or attractive in women. Men do."

And I will never shy away from this statement. Matter of fact I will stand firm by it my entire life, because it is true. Men determine what is beautiful or attractive in women, just as women determine what is handsome or attractive in men.

The reason why is that IS the definition of attractive. If you attract other people, then you are "attractive." I'll be as intellectually honest to agree that people of the same sex who are homosexual can also define whether you are attractive. But setting the homosexual rule aside, you cannot decide simply by yourself that you are attractive or somebody of the same sex is attractive. It simply does not work that way. Other people define it.

Naturally this insults people because how dare I take away their right to determine whether they find somebody attractive or not. Of course I'm not taking their right away, you can find whoever you want to be attractive. If you asked me, I would say Clive Owen is probably the most handsome man in the world. But my opinion doesn't matter because in the end what ultimately determines whether a woman is beautiful or a man is handsome is the opposite sex. And though I may look like Clive, because I am attracted to women, I have no authority as to whether or not he is actually attractive.

Now, this is a simple FACT. Meaning it is not an opinion. It is not questionable. It is just the simple reality of life. And when it comes to facts you have two options;

1. Accept the fact. - this is the healthiest option because, well, that's what sane people do. You are an adult. You may not like some facts, but they are facts and you have the intellectual maturity to acknowledge that. (for example men usually have to accept the fact that women like taller men).

I knock out 90 hours a week on average. Everybody I know does at least 50. And now 48 is too much?

The ILO has "set forth" the "appropriate" number of hours to work per week.

I'm so glad we have some entity to establish how much I should work.

While I harp on what makes society's great and advances people is working smarter, creation, innovation and creativity, one cannot deny the benefits of just working harder.

Japan in the 1960's-1990's would not have advanced as quickly as it did from a war torn country to a first world nation that surpassed its European counterparts. South Korea even more so.

The US enjoys higher standards of living than the French simply because we work more (despite the fact the French have higher labor productivity rates by some measures)

So, an ode to those countries that ignore what some hoity toity, upper class policy analyst at the International Labor Organization thinks should be the "average" work week (who no doubt had such a cushy life they don't realize sometimes you have to work more than 50 hours a week in order to make it). I present to you the average work year;

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

I was hanging out at a jazz club last night, enjoying a cocktail like I do. People are decked out pretty nice and when the 3rd set is finished I decide to head back to the Captain Cave and call it a night. So I resurface (the jazz club was in the basement of a building) and upon getting back to street level I see a bunch of college kids with their hats on side ways, some kid with baggy poofy pants that looked like the group's token idiot and a car goes by with rap music blaring a heavy bass beat. And of course you can't make it back to your car in down town without some schmuck bum asking you for money. But this bum was all of 25 years old, not you're typical down and out 45 year old alcoholic.

And it just further reminded me how much American culture has deteriorated since the WWII generation.

We went from men and women in suits and dresses, just like in the jazz club, listening to Duke Ellington, to a bunch of Baby Boomers getting high on pot listening to "Come on Baby Light My Fire" whilst they threw the US into the throes of the worst recession since the Great Depression as they "came of age" who then begat my generation, Gen-X the most pathetic group of misfits that thought baggy pants, poetry slams, nose and tongue piercings, and Kurt Cobain were cool.

And my question is, has the same deterioration occurred in Europe? Or is it just us in America?Of course, this is the perfect time to once again "Compare and Contrast." Yes "Compare and Contrast" where we take music from the horrible and oppressive 40's and compare to the enlightened and superior music of today.

Today's contestants are Louis Armstrong in "Gone Fishin'" and the musical mastermind Yo Gotti in "After I F@ck Your Bitch"

Gone Fishin'

I'll tell you why I can't find you Every time I go out to your place...

You gone fishin' (well how you know) Well there's a sign upon your door (uh-huh) Gone fishin' (I'm real gone man) You ain't workin' anymore (could be) There's your hoe out in the sun Where you left a row half done You claim that hoein' ain't no fun (well I can prove it) You ain't got no ambition

Gone fishin' by a shady wady pool (Shangrila, really la) I'm wishin' I could be that kind of fool (should I twist your arm?) I'd say no more work for mine (welcome to the club) On my door I'd hang a sign Gone fishin' instead of just a-wishin'

Papa Bing (yeah Louis) I stopped by your place a time or two lately And you aren't home either Well, I'm a busy man Louis. I got a lotta deals cookin' I was probably tied up at the studio You weren't tied up you dog You was just plain old...

Gone fishin' (bah-boo-bah-boo-bah-boo-bah-boo-bah) There's a sign upon your door (Pops, don't blab it around, will you?) Gone fishin' (keep it shady, I got me a big one staked out) Mmm, you ain't workin' anymore (I don't have to work, I got me a piece of Gary) Cows need milkin' in the barn (I have the twins on that detail, they each take a side) But you just don't give a darn (give 'em four bits a cow and hand lotion) You just never seem to learn (man, you taught me) You ain't got no ambition (you're convincin' me)

Mmm, folks won't find us now because Mister Satch and Mister Cros We gone fishin' instead of just a-wishin' Bah-boo-baby-bah-boo-bah-bay-mmm-bo-bay Oh yeah!

After I F@ck Your Bitch

[Chorus] After I fuck your bitch Then I'mma tell you bout it If you a trick ass nigga You'll be fuck up about it I hope you don't start No fuckin' beef about it Or I'll take her name and yo name And make a rap about it

[Verse 1] Now all y'all niggas know pimpin' ain't dead And these hoes followin' us like simon said I only trust me myself and I, you ask me why Cause the first time I seen a man cry Was because a bitch She broke his heart She left him for dead Though my h boom coon Gast up the bitch head Every nigga don't love you He just tryin' to rich And here the bitch fail for the shit(so hear this) These niggas got a couple birds You know how that go We snatch a rumor that we heard We finna vamp out We rush in and ran in the door In the ????? The bitch start screamin' I padded her on the ass Job well done We got what we wanted, it's to roll I'm sittin' on a brick and half, nothin' but old These niggas lookin stupid it's hard to swallow Imagine a bitch taking every dollar you done earn

[Chorus] After I fuck your bitch Then Imma tell you bout it If you a trick ass nigga You'll be fuck up about it I hope you don't start No fuckin' beef about it Or I take her name and yo name And make a rap about it

[Verse 2] Now you the hardest nigga in the hood You talkin shit But you weak than a motherfucker We it comes to that bitch You better watch before I knock her And get cha hot You suppose to be my nigga But you huggin' your glock You wanna kill me, you wanna steal me Over a bitch, you wanna hurt me You wanna curse me, put me on disc You dislike, you fight me, you wanna strike me Wanna catch me, and wear me like an old pair of nikes It ain't over, I saw your hoe, ridin' in your rover I was sober, I pulled her over, now I done stole her My nigga better watch your bitch, cause she been creepin' My nigga me and your bitch, we been like sleepin' She been talkin' about your stash and I been hurtin' I gotta tech-nine in the mat I'm about to serve ya Run up on ya, and pull it on ya, and put it through ya Just to let you know what your hoe will do to ya

[Chorus] After I fuck your bitch Then Imma tell you bout it If you a trick ass nigga You'll be fuck up about it I hope you don't start No fuckin' beef about it Or I'll take her name and yo name And make a rap about it

[Verse 3] You better watch your bitch, like you watch your mail If you ain't train that bitch then you goin' to jail Or gone be dead gone ????? but runs they mouth Love to fantasize about they man cars and house You can give the bitch the world She still gone gice up that car But you a nobody nigga that sellin' rocks on the block You better watch your bitch cause I'm shinin' like diamonds You bring her around me it's gone be a matter of time For I fuck your bitch and let you know about it If you a trick ass nigga you'll be fuck up about it I hope you don't throw no fuckin' fit about it That's life and you really can't do shit about it You wanna hi-side dick ride cause you think I'm on You comin to me wrong tryin' to popcorn, bitch gone For I catch a fuckin aggrivated, see you then violated You told them folk that I was drug related I gotta grudge with the judge she ?????? Domestic violence three years without parole Watch your bitch, and stop your bitch, before your bitch Get your ass in a world of shit

[Chorus] After I fuck your bitch Then Imma tell you bout it If you a trick ass nigga You'll be fuck up about it I hope you don't start No fuckin' beef about it Or I'll tale her name your name And make a rap about it (repeat 4x)

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

I play video games, pick my nose, jump out of trees, run into bushes and climb rocks.

What do I know?

I'm too busy melting ants in my back yard with a magnifying glass and that's when I'm not polishing off a 5th of Jack Daniels drawing pretty pictures on my parent's walls with the 164 box of Crayola crayons.

So why listen to me, or for that matter any one of these moron economist types out there that "claim" there's some kind of housing bubble?

Well that might be changing because banks, mortgage brokerage outfits among other financial service firms that had exposure to real estate are posting losses. Default rates have started to skyrocket and more and more often banks are being left holding collateral for loans that is worth less than the amount they lent out on it due to overly-optimistic appraisals. And while rich, middle aged gray haired men who thought they knew better than us dumb monkey-economists who swing from tree branches and scratch our armpits, these losses along with the increasing chance the board of directors will fire their asses are making them more receptive to listening to the other camp. That "camp" I like to call "reality."

So here's a little tidbit that I think we can all enjoy and it also shows you we're not out of the housing bubble yet. Not by a long shot; Real estate loans as a percent of total loans for all the banks in the US;(adjustment of the y-axis is duly noted)

You see, banks are going to have to eat through their excess loans and diversify into other loans like commercial, equipment, and other loans. Sadly though, most businesses or sole proprietors who want those kind of loans are just going to pony up real estate as collateral for these loans anyway, not really reducing the exposure of banks to real estate. And I've thought of some great ways to diversify banks' loans portfolio's to lower their exposure to real estate that would turn them profitable in 2008, not to mention lower the overall risk of their loan portfolio. Only problem is (and I'm not kidding) that I've literally approached banks and offered them such services and they poo-pooed me away because (as you know) I'm just a dumb economist.

But something tells me that there will be a potential consulting gold mine for economists, consultants and other various finance professionals out there who know why there was a bubble and are able to help banks salvage their crumbling operations. I think it will just take another two quarters of losses that quadruple the losses experienced in the first quarter of 2007 in the banking industry to finally convince the middle aged, MBA'ed, non-stop-golfing gray hairs that maybe they ought to listen to economists.