Publication year

New left-wing government looks set to take office, but talks can still break down. Whichever government comes in, none of them looks capable of breaking with Italy’s unstable political past, let alone effectively deal with its long-standing problems.

This study reviews the current state of the Portuguese economy. We describe the main macroeconomic risks Portugal faces and highlight the successes of the centre-left government and the challenges ahead.

Conservative party New Democracy (ND) beats ruling populist party Syriza in Greek legislative elections. Greek public debt is still staggeringly high at 181%, but there are some positive signs that could improve debt metrics.

Against the backdrop of limits to monetary policy, we investigate the issues at stake if budgetary policy were to take over the role of stimulus provider. Things have not been made easier by the EP election results, but we do see a few ways out.

First quarter GDP growth is revised downwards to 0.1%. Tensions between Brussels and Rome are likely to flare up again this autumn. We expect growth to decelerate in the rest of the year as policy uncertainty weighs on private sector confidence.

Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2019. Domestic demand in the Eurozone is expected to be the main driver as external demand was weak. Italy climbed out of recession in the first quarter of 2019, while Spain remains the Eurozone’s bright star.

Italy’s slipped into a recession. A quick rebound is not to be expected. New budgetary issues are likely to raise concerns on the market later this year. Growth is forecasted to be flat in 2019. The probability of a coalition break-up is low, but looks set to increase after European elections.