Sunday, January 29, 2012

I'm still trying to get my head round how Ruth Davidson thought she could claim a few weeks ago that "every opinion poll in history" has shown that Scots want to remain in the United Kingdom, given that there have been umpteen polls over the last twenty years showing the complete opposite. The one and only thought I can come up with is that maybe she was indulging in a spot of 1979-style creative accountancy, and counting all the 'don't knows' as 'pro-union'. If so, even that excuse has just run out, courtesy of this latest Vision Critical poll showing an absolute majority in favour of independence even when 'don't knows' are taken into account...

Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

Yes 51%
No 39%

The one important caveat is that the Scottish sample size was just 180, but we are assured in the Express article that the figures are credible, because the sample was demographically representative. Nevertheless, the margin of error is a hefty 7% or so, which means that the No side could be in the lead - but only just.