“The anemic sales number does not include the 89,000 Microsoft employees that will be given free Windows 7 phones,” Moritz quips.

CNET reporters added their bleak perspective based on the performance of a single AT&T store in San Francisco (where every hipster in sight is already fondling an iPhone), which sold fewer than 20 Windows devices by midday.

"If Microsoft hopes to get back in the smartphone game, it had better hope that Windows Phone 7 makes a bigger impact than it appeared to be having at one AT&T store here," they wrote.

But let’s put this into perspective. Google claims it’s shipping at least 200,000 Android phones every day, and Apple says 270,000 iPhones are sold each day. However, comparing these numbers to a Windows Phone 7 launch estimate would be foolish: Android has been on the market for two years, and the iPhone for three; both platforms have reached critical mass.

Windows Phone 7 is two days old.

A fairer comparison would be launch numbers. The first iPhone shipped 250,000 units during its launch weekend, according to an analyst’s estimates. That number seems more substantial, but this was when nothing like the iPhone was already on the market.

I couldn’t find firm launch sales for the first Android phone (the T-Mobile G1), but the more popular Droid smartphone was estimated to ship 100,000 units during its launch weekend. That’s a full weekend, not one day—and if 40,000 more Windows phones shipped on day two, then Windows Phone 7’s launch would have performed nearly as well as the Droid.

If you consider that Windows Phone is entering a market where everyone and their mother already seems to be cradling an iPhone or an Android phone, a 40,000 day-one estimate isn’t bad. (It’s certainly better than Google’s failed launch of the Nexus One, which sold 135,000 units over 74 days, according to an estimate.) Sure enough, AT&T and T-Mobile spokespeople contacted by Wired.com said their companies were pleased with early demand of Windows Phone 7 handsets, though they declined to disclose figures.

I personally think Windows Phone 7 is going to be huge in two years — largely because Microsoft’s mobile strategy is superior to Android’s, as I argued in a previous piece. But no one should have realistically expected Windows Phone to blow anyone out of the water on day one, this late in the game.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m not cheering for Microsoft. But my point is we shouldn’t be projecting failure for anyone trying to push something new into the highly competitive mobile space. I don’t want just two giants with complete domination again, do you?

Why are launch numbers numbers from the first iPhone any more accurate? This isn't the first Windows Phone-it's at least the 7th.

Comparing is silly regardless-we don't know anything about the distribution, availability, or, hey, how many were actually sold. But I think outside the blogosphere very few people see this as a "new" launch, like the first iPhone or Google's first Android phone.

I'd think those are pretty good figures considering how the UI is such a radical departure from what most people are using. It may take time for people to "get it". I haven't had a chance to use a Win7Phone yet, but I'd like to. The UI looks nice with some interesting innovation. Besides, it looks like MS is taking a long-term strategy with these devices. And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that. I tend to use Apple products, but I like what MS is trying to accomplish with this device and the way that they are doing it.

The iphone was something totally new when it came out. The fact it sold 250K in two days when it was priced at $599 speaks volumes.

I think WP7 will be a solid player in the field, in the long run, but I don't expect it to come close to the iphone/Android for a while, if ever. MS does not have the lock in with phones like they do with PCs. Every smartphone is basically the same price $199/$299 regardless of OS.

And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

In Phoenix, every AT&T store, and the Microsoft store sold out of the Samsung Focus by noon. There were plenty of HTC Surrounds out there, but no one wants them. I also know the Microsoft store sold out of the HD7. I'm not sure if the T-Mobile stores sold out of their HD7 stock. I think that's why their saying they're pleased with the results. All the good phones sold out.

The other key point is that it's obviously a supply problem, not a demand problem. AT&T stores seem like they're only getting a few at a time of each device, all of which seem to sell out quickly.

People claim the "$500 million ad campaign" or whatever it is must be failing, but it's also obvious that the ad campaign has barely started yet. Why would they crank up the ad machine to Kinect levels if the supply isn't even available yet?

Why would they crank up the ad machine to Kinect levels if the supply isn't even available yet?

I would think they would want the ads going nuts before supply is healthy. That way people hear about WP7, look it up, and then see that they're so popular they're sold out. A little bit of scarcity could help pump up the desire for the product. I'm not anything close to a marketing person, so it's possible I'm way off the mark.

And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

That's because MS is happy to tell you that copy&paste is coming in H1 2011 and they're working on getting multi-tasking in. With Apple, it's all smoke and mirrors and you only need what Jobs gives you. Transparency does wonders for what people will accept and what they wont.

To this day I've only seen 1 short video of what using a W7 phone actually looks like, and I'm a tech geek. Even the marketing blitz, with commercials ranging from bizarre to amusing, tell me very little about the phone. How are normal folks supposed to get excited about this?

Maybe there are benefits to that strategy, but regardless of what strategy might be best, what's obvious is that they certainly have not kicked up that ad campaign yet. The difference between Kinect marketing vs. Windows Phone 7 marketing is massive, and I'm betting that when WP7 supply grows a bit, that's when they'll choose to actually start advertising it more.

They need to do a LOT more, if they are going to be competitive with Apple and Google in the mobile space. The "tile" concept looks neat, but scrolling through a 10 page list of tiles doesnt sound like much fun. If I REALLY wanted to, I could set up an Android phone to look and act like WinMo7...but WITH multitasking (and more apps!). Microsoft also made a huge mistake in emulating Apple and their "closed" marketplace. (dont get me started with splitting hairs on what is "open" or "closed"...I mean that Android phones dont HAVE to get their apps from the Marketplace, you can install anything from a web site WITHOUT a "stamp of approval" from whoever")

The Zune and XBOX integration seem like the high points of the platform, but AGAIN...you are tying yourself to a proprietary environment. I am sick and tired of electronics manufacturers dictating what CONTENT I can have on my device based on what agreements are in place with the manufacturer and the website. Shouldnt I be able to get whatever content I want on whatever device I want? Sadly, Apply, Microsoft and others say NO.

The biggest problem I see for WinMo7 is there is not a SINGLE good reason for anyone to buy into this platform. The hardware is largely indistinguishable from Android offerings, and the software is buggy and crippled at launch. Hell, even some HARDWARE is crippled! What's up with the warranty sticker covering the microSD slot on some WinMo phones? Bottom line, they have a "Me Too" operating system with little to distinguish it, and an uphill fight for the hearts and minds of iPhone and Android users. Hopefully this is Mr. Ballmer's swan song.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

I thought the main complaint about the first iPhone was the lack of being able to use third party apps. Remember the app store came out with the 3G a year later.

I think everyone wants the windows phones to be more capable at launch then they are, but they are still was more capable then the first iphone.

The iPhone was the first really usable smartphone for consumers in a market that was already overly ripe. It's launch numbers are still amazing and a credit to Job's marketing skills.

Android had a slow start with the G1 and the Nexus One. It wasn't until the Droid that is actually picked up steam.

40,000 units is a pretty good start for Microsoft on their new phone, especially since their previous efforts were underwhelming. While it may be version 7 of thier mobile OS I think the reputation of their first 6 versions are something they have to overcome, not something that gives them extra credibility.

If Microsoft plays things right, and brings the same determination that say IE go from crap to a good product relatively quickly, they will be a competitor. Hopefully this time they will lay off on the hyperbole about crushing competitors that came back to haunt them in the anti-trust trail.

I'm still not planning on buying one of their phones until they have some time to work out the bugs and polish the interface.

That's not even close to an "order of magnitude" smaller. It's more like "not quite as many sales". Also, those iPhone/Android numbers are official (i think?), while the WP7 number is an educated guess.

Android get the geek/cheap customers and iPhone the cool/hipster customers.WindowsPhone7 is design for which kind of customers?

I think Apple is selling 270k new iOS devices (iPhone+iPad+iPodTouch).

We all know now what Google was expecting from the Nexus One so the failed launch remark is not relevant here. Google wanted to push the Android phones development with a new high-end device.Google had a dream of selling smartphones w/o going through the carriers (and I share this dream with Google) but this dream wasn't going to happen and won't happen any time soon.Those rumors about Apple becoming it's own carrier is very unlikely to happen.

For a device released in January, the Nexus One is still relevant, still sold by Google to developers and by carriers to customers around the world and it will be the first Android device running Android 2.3 ... not a lot of phone can pretend that.

Depends on how they qualify success. In a couple of years they might take 3rd place.

But I dont' see WP7 ever beating Android. Android is fast becoming the MS-DOS of smart-phones. It will be available on a wider array of hardware from a wider array of manufacturers, and on wider range of carriers.

Unless lawsuits drive up the price, semi free and ready access to source code is going to win over the MS tax and control

And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

I would say because Microsoft acknowledges this issue and has promised to address it very soon.

They need to do a LOT more, if they are going to be competitive with Apple and Google in the mobile space. The "tile" concept looks neat, but scrolling through a 10 page list of tiles doesnt sound like much fun. If I REALLY wanted to, I could set up an Android phone to look and act like WinMo7...but WITH multitasking (and more apps!). Microsoft also made a huge mistake in emulating Apple and their "closed" marketplace. (dont get me started with splitting hairs on what is "open" or "closed"...I mean that Android phones dont HAVE to get their apps from the Marketplace, you can install anything from a web site WITHOUT a "stamp of approval" from whoever")

The Zune and XBOX integration seem like the high points of the platform, but AGAIN...you are tying yourself to a proprietary environment. I am sick and tired of electronics manufacturers dictating what CONTENT I can have on my device based on what agreements are in place with the manufacturer and the website. Shouldnt I be able to get whatever content I want on whatever device I want? Sadly, Apply, Microsoft and others say NO.

The biggest problem I see for WinMo7 is there is not a SINGLE good reason for anyone to buy into this platform. The hardware is largely indistinguishable from Android offerings, and the software is buggy and crippled at launch. Hell, even some HARDWARE is crippled! What's up with the warranty sticker covering the microSD slot on some WinMo phones? Bottom line, they have a "Me Too" operating system with little to distinguish it, and an uphill fight for the hearts and minds of iPhone and Android users. Hopefully this is Mr. Ballmer's swan song.

She just got her Samsung Focus yesterday, and absolutely loves it. She doesn't need a billion applications, so while the app list isn't great, it certainly isn't a problem.

Zune integration is extremely simple and easy to understand. She cares far more about simplicity and usability than openness and choice. Choice is precisely why my mom - an Android user for 2-3 months now - is so frustrated with her Droid X right now.

The software definitely isn't buggy from the extensive use I've put into it, and it certainly isn't "crippled" either.

In Phoenix, every AT&T store, and the Microsoft store sold out of the Samsung Focus by noon. There were plenty of HTC Surrounds out there, but no one wants them. I also know the Microsoft store sold out of the HD7. I'm not sure if the T-Mobile stores sold out of their HD7 stock. I think that's why their saying they're pleased with the results. All the good phones sold out.

And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

People gave Apple shit about it because Apple had the nerve to say "we don't think you need it" for years. MS gets a pass because they say "We know you want it and we're going to include it when it's ready with a free OTA update in a few months."

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

I thought the main complaint about the first iPhone was the lack of being able to use third party apps. Remember the app store came out with the 3G a year later.

I think everyone wants the windows phones to be more capable at launch then they are, but they are still was more capable then the first iphone.

The day the iPhone came out the rest of the smartphone industry was immediately playing catch-up. Yes, it was missing features but the entire package was far ahead of everything else at the time. And since that time Apple has continued to be innovative.

MS has had years to get this right and they are still behind in the game. If they didn't have such deep pockets there is no way they would be competitive at all.

I personally think Windows Phone 7 is going to be huge in two years — largely because Microsoft’s mobile strategy is superior to Android’s,

I agree with the basic premise of the article, WP7 isnt doomed because of bad first day sales (if they are bad). The OS seems to be decent but isn't a must-have in any way and most likely has its best days ahead of it. After all Microsoft will need at least one or two releases to really get a comparative feature set and I am not even talking about the big items like multitasking or cut&paste but also lots and lots and lots of smaller things.

But the sentence above is ridiculous. Its mobile strategy is surely not better than Androids. While Android is the Microsoft Windows of the desktop world and allows the handset producers some leeway to distinguish themselves from the herd, Windows Phone 7 is an awkward hybrid between iPhone OS (everything is closed and the hardware is completely controlled and specified) and Android (every handset maker can use it and customize it ) Wp7 will have a small market but in the end will be compressed between Android on the one side, iPhone on the other and perhaps RIM for business users and Meego/Symbian. All of them have their own niche where they are the best:

iPhone is simply the perfectly polished high end phone.Android is the Microsoft Windows that can be customized by handset makers as they please.RIM has the business niche with great business controls and management services.MeeGo/Symbian has the for the midterm biggest handset maker.

And Windows Phone 7 has a nice, stylish interface, which will not help it much.

First-day sales are always the highest sales of any phone model. After the first day, sales drop. So we can already say that Windows Phone 7's dismal start will only get worse.

It is time to accept the fact that Windows Phone 7 has failed, just like Microsoft's previous phone, The Kin.

Incredibly strong condemnation based on speculative numbers and speculative logic that assumes that nothing ever changes and that past trends are 100% accurate in predicting future results. If you really believe that, fair enough -- but if you're just trolling, please do it on some other site. Arstechnica is the one tech news site free from flamewars -- I beg of you -- please don't start that stuff here. Take it to slashdot, engadget, gizmodo, wherever -- please just leave Ars to the people that actually care about technology.

At least Microsoft can fall back on their "Netscape" strategy in the event their new phone doesn't sell: give them away for free with a generous voice/data plan also free. Once all competitors have failed, do whatever you want.

At least Microsoft can fall back on their "Netscape" strategy in the event their new phone doesn't sell: give them away for free with a generous voice/data plan also free. Once all competitors have failed, do whatever you want.

Yeah, I was going to say that I was disappointed in the tone of the article, but then I noticed that it seems to be a cross-posted article from Wired, so my faith in Ars is renewed.

Another thing to remember is that Microsoft is spending $100 million in marketing alone. If they can't drum up significant support at launch spending that kind of money, I'm not sure that investors will be too pleased.

And while I agree that comparing launch numbers to daily sales numbers of mature phones isn't an apples to apples comparison, it does highlight how steep of a hill Microsoft needs to climb. One would expect that there would be an initial rush of purchases at launch, then a decline, as the initial pent up demand gets satisfied. They could see a build-up of demand as time goes on and more people see it in action. Or, people might consider the substantially lower sales compared to Apple and Android as proof that this is another failed effort by Microsoft, they will steer clear of a product they think has a dubious future, and sales will go into a death spiral.

It is interesting though that this is Microsoft we're talking about, the 800 lb gorilla of the tech industry, who's mere mention that they might be getting into a particular market would send the existing companies in that market into a panic. Yet now the significantly lower initial sales of its products are being explained as to be expected for a normal company that's trying to break into an existing market.

And to those griping about missing features, it took the the iPhone years to get cut and paste, the Win phone will have it much sooner than that.

I'm still amused that for all the sh*t Apple got for not including it out of the gate, people are happy to give MS a pass for missing copy & paste and multitasking when they, of all companies, should have had it from the start.

The difference is how they talk about it when asked. When you ask Apple, they say "we don't comment on future releases of our software". When you ask Microsoft, they'll say "it's coming soon". What do you think fanboys will have an easier time spewing?

As to the sales figures, we need to give them some time. On the bright side, it already beat the Kin.

The iPhone sales numbers in this article are wrong. Apple's talking about "iOS devices" with the 270,000 number, which includes sales figures for the iPod touch and iPad). Actual iPhone figures are half of that.