African Union proposes a peacekeeping mission to Burundi

Event

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU) has proposed sending a peacekeeping mission to Burundi.

Analysis

The Burundian government, led by the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, has previously denied that the recent political violence merits a peacekeeping force. Unusually, the AU has recommended a mission—the African Prevention and Protection Mission, as it will be called—regardless of Mr Nkurunziza's approval. This could therefore mark the first time that the regional body has invoked Article 4 of its charter—"to intervene in grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity"—by deploying troops without the host country's consent.

The AU's proposal follows a special session at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) on December 17th during which Zeid Raad al‑Hussein, the high commissioner, described Burundi as teetering on "the very cusp" of civil war. The UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, Adama Dieng, has also called on the International Criminal Council to investigate claims that the conflict has ethnic undertones. Resolution 2248, passed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) in mid‑November, condemned the killings and human rights abuses, but stopped short of implementing the asset freezes and travel bans that had been previously called for by the UNHRC.

Instead, the UNSC urged regional actors to do more to end the violence. The East African Community, led by Yoweri Museveni (the Ugandan president), has co-ordinated mediation efforts, but this has been almost entirely ineffectual thus far in promoting compromise between Mr Nkurunziza and his opponents. The proposed intervention by the AU represents a change in strategy. This is motivated, in part, by the recent escalation to violence in Burundi. Moreover, with some 220,000 Burundians taking refuge in neighbouring countries, there is a growing risk that the political violence will spill across borders—particularly if (as has been warned by the UNHRC) the conflict takes on an ethnic dimension. Should Mr Nkurunziza reject the peacekeeping troops—which will be drawn from the East African Stand-by Force currently active in the Democratic Republic of Congo—the AU intends to seek approval from the UNSC.

Impact on the forecast

We continue to expect that political violence in Burundi will persist in the near term, although the threat of external intervention does somewhat raise the prospects for dialogue between Mr Nkurunziza and his opponents. However, there also remains a downside risk that the unrest will adopt a regional dimension, if the Burundian government rejects the AU's intervention.