The summit merry-go-round

One of the challenges for those preparing next week’s European Council (14-15 March) is to work out who will be attending.

Because Bulgaria does not have an interim prime minister following the resignation of Boyko Borisov last month, the country will be represented by Rosen Plevneliev, the president, who has little executive power. Last week he set an election date of 12 May, which might just be early enough for a new government to be in place for the next scheduled EU summit on 22 May.

Uncertainty also clouds the question of who will represent Slovenia. Alenka Bratušek, who is from the centre-left, was made prime minister-designate on 27 February, following the resignation of Janez Janša. She now has 14 days to put together a new governing coalition, which would then require parliament’s approval. Those 14 days end on the eve of the European Council, which makes it impossible to guess who will attend on Slovenia’s behalf: Bratušek, as freshly minted prime minister; her disgraced and isolated predecessor, the centre-right Janša, embroiled in a corruption scandal; or Borut Pahor, the country’s centre-left president (and former prime minister)?

A degree more certainty is provided by Cyprus, whose constitutional arrangements are peculiar in that a directly elected president also leads the government. So the result of last month’s election means that Nicos Anastasiades, the winning candidate from the centre-right, can now be pencilled in for a full five years of European Councils.

Who will represent Malta depends on the outcome of the election on Saturday (9 March). Joseph Muscat, the leader of the centre-left, is expected to win, and would take up office in time to attend the European Council.

The case of Italy is less straightforward because the results of last month’s election were much more complicated than Malta’s will be. About all that is clear is that in the absence of an agreed successor, Mario Monti, the technocrat caretaker, is still prime minister and will attend next week’s summit. Who will succeed him, or when, is unknown. This might be Monti’s last summit or it might not.

So Entre Nous’s daring forecast is that the summit will be attended by a new centre-right leader, Anastasiades; possibly by two new centre-left leaders, Muscat and Bratušek; and by two centre-right placeholders, Monti and Plevneliev.