TO: Interested Parties
FR: The Obama Campaign
RE: West Virginia and Obama’s Strong Position in the Race Ahead
DA: 5/13/08

West Virginia

There is no question that Senator Clinton is going to win by huge
margins in the upcoming primaries in West Virginia today and Kentucky
next weeks. She has poured resources into both states and she, former
President Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton have all campaigned
extraordinarily hard there.

The Clinton campaign has already been touting their margins in these
states – In fact, Bill Clinton said that Hillary can win West Virginia
with 80 percent—and the West Virginia Senate Majority Leader said
Clinton needs to win by “80-20 or 90-10.” And in keeping large margins
in perspective, it is worth noting that, while Senator Clinton will win
big in West Virginia, Barack Obama won neighboring Virginia by 29
points.

But with 49 contests behind us and only six to go -- including
several states where we expect to do well -- Barack Obama leads in
pledged delegates, contests won, and superdelegates. And for
perspective, while 28 pledged delegates are up for grabs this evening,
Obama has won the support of 27 superdelegates in the course of just
the last week putting him less than 150 total delegates away from
clinching the Democratic nomination.

Obama’s Strong Position in the Race Ahead

Nationally, Obama is running stronger among Independent voters than
any winning Presidential candidate since 1988 and is significantly
outperforming Sen. Clinton among these voters as well in general
election polling.

To understand a potential general election match-up between Obama
and McCain, the only analysis and data that should be considered valid
are the current head-to-head National polls rather than extrapolating
irrelevant assumptions from exit poll data in Democratic primaries.

And, on the issue of Democratic unity in the Fall, analysts need
only consider that in April of 1992, on a night when Bill Clinton won
four primaries and was the presumptive nominee, 6 in 10 Democratic
primary voters said they wanted another candidate in the race. Despite
this, five months later, Democratic voters were unified behind Clinton
and he won his first of two terms in office.

Debunking Five Myths About Obama’s Support

MYTH 1: The Primary has left Democrats divided.

FACT: Democrats are united behind Barack Obama, even more so than
Republicans are united behind McCain

ü May 12 Washington Post poll shows that Obama wins 81% of
Democrats in a matchup against John McCain.

ü Indeed, more Republicans crossover to vote for Obama (15%)
than do Democrats for McCain (13%).

· NOTE: In 1996, Bill Clinton won 84% of Democrats.

MYTH 2: The Primary campaign has hurt Obama with swing voters and
Republicans:

FACT: Obama is winning the swing voters against McCain by a wide
margin.

ü Obama holds a 51-42 lead among Independents in the Washington
Post poll.

· NOTE: Clinton loses 46-49 to McCain among Independents.

ü Not since 1988, when George Bush beat Michael Dukakis 57-43
among Independents, has a candidate won such a large margin among swing
voters.

· In his two victories, Clinton only managed a 6-point margin
over the Republican among independents in 1992 and an 8-point margin in
1996.

· Indeed, no Democrat has won a majority of Independent
voters since exit polls were first conducted in 1976.

MYTH 3: Obama cannot perform strongly enough among white voters:

FACT: Obama’s is running as well or better than past Democratic
Candidates among white voters.

ü LA Times (May 8) Obama: 41

McCain: 45

ü Wash Post (May 13): Obama: 42

McCain: 51

ü 2004 Exit polls: Kerry: 41

Bush: 58

ü 2000 Exit Polls: Gore: 43

Bush: 54

ü 1996 Exit polls: Clinton: 43

Dole: 46

ü 1992 Exit polls: Clinton: 39

Bush: 41

Perot: 20

MYTH 4: The race against Clinton has compromised Obama’s position among
women:

FACT: Obama has begun attracting the support of a broad coalition of
women and is poised to win historic margins.

ü Wash Post (May 13): Obama: 54

McCain: 40

ü New York Times (May 3) Obama: 47

McCain: 39

ü NOTE: No Democratic candidate has won women by so large a
margin since exit polling was first conducted in 1976. The closest any
candidate has come was in 2000, when Al Gore won women 54-43 over
George Bush

MYTH 5: Obama cannot win working class voters:

FACT: Obama is already winning working class voters

ü In the recent LA Times poll, Obama wins every income group
under $100,000.

Obama McCain

· <$40K: 43 35

· $40K-$59K 43 40

· $60K-$100K 51 42

· $101K+ 46 47

ü According to the Washington Post/ABC poll released today,
despite Sen. Clinton’s insistence that she is stronger among white,
working-class voters the data shows that Sen. Obama performs nearly as
well as she does in the general election. Among white, non-college
voters in this poll: