Chinstrap Ninjas — Fantasy Football and Fantasy Baseball AssassinsFantasy football and fantasy baseball assassins2017-07-23T22:14:43Zhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/feed/atom/WordPresshttps://i2.wp.com/www.chinstrapninjas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/cropped-cropped-jsmninjalogo11-1.jpg?fit=32%2C32ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=164692017-07-23T22:14:43Z2016-08-16T15:13:58ZIn my initial post in this series, I reminded you why I like ADP so much.

It is one of the most revealing tools in our arsenal.

This next portion of the top 120 gives us more examples why the zero-RB strategy works so well. There are a pile of good options in here. There are also some extremely talented quarterbacks on this list, backing up the wait-on-QB strategy as well.

This is the second in a series of ADP rankings. In these articles I’ll look at where players are going and whether they provide good, great or little value at the position where most of the industry is selecting them.

I’m using data from Fantasy Football Calculator, as I have for a number of seasons. The data was collected from 1,624 15-round, 12-team drafts conducted on the site Aug. 10-12.

ADP top 120 (81-100)

81

7.09

Michael Crabtree

WR

OAK

6

This ADP is a little high. He’s falling into the 9th in some drafts. I don’t expect as much TD regression as some. He only had one multi-TD game, scoring twice in a shootout against Pittsburgh. He’s a mid-round target for me.

82

7.09

Melvin Gordon

RB

SD

10

Post-hype sleeper. His teammate, Danny Woodhead, is 31 years old, but was the No. 3 PPR fantasy running back in 2015. If Gordon improved at all in the offseason he’ll cut into those shares

83

7.1

Tyler Eifert

TE

CIN

9

If Eifert was healthy, you would have to pay quite a bit more for him. He’s expected back early in the regular season. I’m not a big fan of paying this much for someone who has no chance to get me 16 games, but he has fallen into the 11th round. He becomes a better value in the 9th-11th rounds.

84

7.11

Kevin White

WR

CHI

7

Paying a seventh-round price for White seems alright. The Bears picked the West Virginia product seventh overall in 2015. There are risks becuase he’s never been on the field in an NFL game and he only had one big college season. But there’s also the chance he could be part of a killer 1-2 punch for Chicago.

85

7.11

Carson Palmer

QB

ARI

9

Palmer’s age is starting to creep up, and it’s not like he hasn’t had his share of bumps and bruises during his career. But I’m still drafting Palmer quite a bit. He’s got one of the most talented supporting casts in the NFL.

86

7.11

Sterling Shepard

WR

NYG

11

You have to sift through a lot of, err, stuff in the preseason, but everything I’ve read so far about Shepard has been overwhelmingly positive. Coverages are going to have to double or triple Odell Beckham Jr. most downs. If Shepard poses a serious threat on the other side it could mean huge things for the Giants offense.

87

8.01

Justin Forsett

RB

BAL

8

Forsett is 31. But he hasn’t taken as much punishment as a lot of other running backs his age. I really like Forsett at this price, especially because he could get feature-back work..

88

8.03

Chris Ivory

RB

JAC

5

Ivory is not an every-down back, but I suspect he’ll steal quite a few touches from T.J. Yeldon. He’s a good zero-RB option.

89

8.04

Marvin Jones

WR

DET

10

I’ve owned Jones the last couple of years when he wasn’t nearly as heavily used by the Bengals. However, now he steps into a Lions team in need of a No. 1 wide receiver. There are many who think Golden Tate will remain No. 2. Even if he doesn’t, Jones is well worth the price here.

90

8.04

DeSean Jackson

WR

WAS

8

Jackson is 29 years old, which means he should have a couple more years of high-level production. But he’s oft-injured and I wonder if those bumps and bruises mount earlier for a receiver who relies on his speed to make plays.

91

8.04

Blake Bortles

QB

JAC

5

There should be some regression here, but Bortles’ weapons are too good for him to fall completely off the charts. He should be drafted ahead of Manning, which is the case here.

92

8.06

Charles Sims

RB

TB

6

Sims is another good zero-RB candidate. Rounds 6-10 are loaded with these running backs who have enough PPR and spot-time value to be a viable low-end starter many weeks

93

8.06

Eli Manning

QB

NYG

11

As I said above in the Shepard blurb, the cards seem to be stacked in Manning’s favor. He could have a serious threat on the other side from OBJ. If Cruz returns with any sort of talent this could be one of the most potent offenses in the NFL in 2016.

94

8.07

Julius Thomas

TE

JAC

5

Injuries are always the concern, but there’s elite tight end production possible here.

95

8.09

Jay Ajayi

RB

MIA

8

Ajayi is another zero-RB candidate, whose value took a bit of a hit when Arian Foster signed with the Dolphins. It’ll be interesting to see what the team does with Ajayi when Foster gets hurt.

96

8.1

Corey Coleman

WR

CLE

13

The most talented wide receiver in the 2016 draft and the Browns new No. 1 wide receiver. While it’s difficult to get excited about the Browns, they have a new quarterback, a pile of wide receivers to help take the pressure off Coleman and a new coach known for his offense.

97

8.12

Theo Riddick

RB

DET

10

What did we say about zero-RB candidates? Riddick will get PPR points whether starter Ameer Abdullah is healthy or not, making him one of the best mid-round running back options.

98

9.02

Tevin Coleman

RB

ATL

11

I believe Coleman has little value unless Devonta Freeman gets hurt. Even as Freeman slowed down in the second half of the season, Coleman didn’t didn’t get much extra work except for his 100-yard game in week 12, which Freeman missed.

99

9.03

Stefon Diggs

WR

MIN

6

There’s been a lot of positive buzz about Stefon Diggs so far this preseason. I love the talent. The problem is this is still Adrian Peterson’s team, so there won’t be as many opportunities for him to shine.

100

9.03

Gary Barnidge

TE

CLE

13

One-thousand-yard, nine-touchdown tight ends don’t just fall out of the sky. They also never last until round 9, unless there’s question he’ll ever be able to repeat. That’s the case with Barnidge. However, unless he gets hurt or take a seroius step backward, he should have ample opportunities in a Hue Jackson offense which got 13 TDs out of Tyler Eifert last season.

There are a handful of players in these rounds that I absolutely want to own in 2016. Players who I believe will far outplay their draft slots.

Which players are you targeting in the eight round of your drafts? Which players are you avoiding? Let us know in the comments.

If you like this article, please share it on Twitter or Facebook. It helps us out.

Stay awesome, Ninja.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=164662016-08-15T03:02:18Z2016-08-15T11:00:17ZIt’s insane how few player rankings out there include player age in them.

This should be a vital part of your decision-making process, regardless of your league type. The bottom line is that if you value a 27-year-old quarterback and a 37-year-old quarterback evenly, you should go with the 27-year-old every time because he’s less prone to injury and less likely to experience age-related regression.

Looking up the ages for every darn player you rank is kind of grueling, but it’s worth it in the long run. Luckily for you, Ninja, I’ve done the leg work for you.

I’ve got 45 quarterbacks for you here. Yes, there’s more on the full list, but these are standard redraft rankings. Chances are your league has 12 teams and most owners aren’t even going to take three quarterbacks let alone four. Those guys not on the list should probably be on the waiver wire until something changes.

With each player I’ve included their bye week, age and some off the top of my head notes.

2016 quarterback rankings

Seems we have a new No. 1 QB every year. Running ability, advances in passing game make me think this one will stick for a while

2

Aaron Rodgers

GB

4

32

Packers get Jordy, slim Eddie back and add Jared Cook. I wonder if Rodgers has stopped smiling at all this offseason.

3

Russell Wilson

SEA

5

27

Biggest concern is potential regression because of how insane he and Baldwin were as a combo. In first action of 16, Wilson-to-Baldwin on consecutive pass attempts.

4

Andrew Luck

IND

10

26

Entering last season, Luck was atop a lot of quarterback lists, especially in the dynasty/keeper space. Look at his performance pre-injury. We were right.

5

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

8

34

Losing Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller will hurt, but he’s got the best wide receiver in the universe and, the top running back in the NFL.

6

Carson Palmer

ARI

9

36

Age could catch up to Palmer at any moment, but he has too many weapons in too great an offense to rank him any lower.

7

Philip Rivers

SD

11

34

Did you see Keenan Allen’s stats when healthy last season? Did you see Rivers’ over the same period? The team added Travis Benjamin and they have an easy schedule. I’m all-in on Rivers and Co.

8

Eli Manning

NYG

8

35

It seems the Giants caught another whopper wide receiver in Sterling Shepard. Yes, Eli will have a few Eli games, but with these weapons he’s an easy lock for top-10 QB

9

Drew Brees

NO

5

37

Like a couple guys on this list, Brees is getting up in years and his numbers are sliding a bit. Only a bit though, he still had one of the best QB performances of 2015, and they added Michael Thomas, who is like having a fresh Marques Colston on the roster.

10

Blake Bortles

JAX

5

24

I really want to rank him higher — he’s definitely higher in dynasty. However, he had an outstanding 2015. He’ll probably regress a bit, so I won’t overpay.

11

Kirk Cousins

WAS

9

28

The Redskins have weapons on offense, adding Josh Doctson to a wide receiver corps that is already too full to properly feed Jamison Crowder.

12

Tony Romo

DAL

7

36

The big “if” is always health when it comes to Romo, but if Zeke is as great as everyone thinks he is and Romo and Dez can stay on the field, he nukes this rankings and pushes into the top five. Maybe even top 3. I stole him for $2 in a dynasty auction Sunday.

13

Derek Carr

OAK

10

25

I have Walford in a handful of fantasy leagues, so my brain perked up a couple times when I’ve seen they want to get him more involved in the offense. Add him to the potent duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and you have a dangerous offense.

14

Tyrod Taylor

BUF

10

27

Taylor deserved to get paid. I like him to outperform this ranking. He has one of the best receivers in the game in Watkins and can make things happen with his legs, which makes him an optimal quarterback choice in my book.

15

Andy Dalton

CIN

9

28

There’s a lot of talk about regression with Dalton this year. But it’s not like he hasn’t shown us a performance like last year’s before. In A.J. Green he has what some consider the best wide receiver in the game to lean on and an emerging force at tight end.

16

Matthew Stafford

DET

10

28

We have no idea what the Lions offense is going to look like without Calvin Johnson on the field. It’s the time of year for untrue positive headlines, but there have been a lot of them coming out of Detroit.

17

Ryan Fitzpatrick

NYJ

11

33

We have to expect some regression from last season, at least on Eric Decker’s end of things. But Fitzpatrick, Decker and Marshall all return and they added Matt Forte, who even at age 30 will be the best back the Jets have had since they rented out LT in his second-to-last season in 2010.

18

Marcus Mariota

TEN

13

24

My favorite dynasty quarterback. If only his weapons were better.

19

Jameis Winston

TB

6

22

Speaking of young quarterbacks with weapons. Winston has one of the best young wide receivers in the game and if Austin Seferian-Jenkins can return to any sort of form, this will be an offense to watch.

20

Matt Ryan

ATL

11

31

Julio Jones is the only reason Matt Ryan makes it into the top-20. Devonta Freeman isn’t bad either, but Jones is the primary driver of this offense.

21

Ryan Tannehill

MIA

8

28

He flashed impovement in 2014, then disappointed in 2015. Now he gets Adam Gase as his coach — the same Gase that led Jay Cutler to one of his best seasons as a pro last year. The Dolphins are also flush with potential stars at the skill positions.

22

Joe Flacco

BAL

8

31

I’ve never been a huge Joe Flacco fan, but at this price I’m not against picking him. I like Kamar Aiken and Steve Smith and think Breshard Perriman could still emerge as a serious offensive threat.

23

Jay Cutler

CHI

9

33

As mentioned above, the coach who helped Jay Cutler to a stellar 2015 is gone. Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are also gone. I’m not sure Kevin White will be able to pick up all of that slack, but I still consider this an offesne to watch.

24

Tom Brady

NE

9

39

Yes, he’s 39, but I still don’t want to have to face Angry Tom Brady post-suspension in Week 5.

25

Alex Smith

KC

5

32

He’s not going to win you a fantasy league or single-handedly win you a game, but he’s likely not to lose it for you either, making him a good QB-streaming option or a decent backup.

26

Teddy Bridgewater

MIN

6

23

At some point, Adrian Peterson is going to become ineffective. It’ll be interesting to see if the Vikings shift to a more pass-oriented offense. With the emergence of Stefon Diggs and the drafting of Laquan Treadwell, I think that’s exactly what MIN’s brass is thinking

27

Robert Griffin

CLE

13

26

I want to like this addition. I want to draft Robert Griffin. There was so much talent there his rookie season. Now, there’s so much talent in the Browns receiving corps. The NFL would be a more fun place if he can turn things around.

28

Brock Osweiler

HOU

9

25

I’m not an Osweiler fan. But, like Matt Ryan above, he has an elite receiver, which is enough to make hiim at least fantasy relevant for several games this season, if not more.

29

Sam Bradford

PHI

4

28

In another case of what-could-have-been, Sam Bradford’s replacement was drafted this season. However, I like Bradford’s weapons and he actually played well more times than he vomited on himself in 2015.

30

Mark Sanchez

DEN

11

29

Speaking of vomiting on yourself. … Sanchez will be forever remembered for the butt fumble even though he’s put together a couple solid seasons in his career. He is in a three-way competition for the starting spot — and he’s not the fan favorite of the bunch

31

Trevor Siemian

DEN

11

24

Siemian, Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch are the quarterbacks competing to start for the Broncos. Because of the uncertainty, and the Broncos likelihood of handing the ball off to C.J. Anderson on most snaps, I’m likely to avoid this situation completely.

32

Colin Kaepernick

SF

8

28

Like RGIII, I want Kaepernick to win back the starting job for the 49ers. He’s more talented than Gabbert and could bring more electricity to the NFL.

33

Blaine Gabbert

SF

8

26

He’s not electric, but like Alex Smith above, he was steady with a couple decent games. That makes him a streamer or decent backup as long as he is the starter in San Fran.

34

Jared Goff (R)

LA

8

21

I’m staying away from Goff in redrafts, but he is a starting quarterback, so he has to be on the list.

35

Jimmy Garoppolo

NE

9

24

He’ll get four games to show off what being Tom Brady’s understudy is worth. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the heir apparent to one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.

36

Josh McCown

CLE

13

37

The fallback for when (probably when, not if) RGIII falters. If his turn to start coincides with Josh Gordon’s return I will have all the shares of both players in all of my daily fantasy leagues. As it is, I’m avoiding McCown in redraft leagues.

37

Carson Wentz (R)

PHI

4

23

I like Wentz considerably better than Goff. I have since draft day. That said, Wentz is starting out as the No. 3 QB. I’m not sure that’ll last all season, but I’m not paying the price to draft him in redraft leagues.

38

Paxton Lynch (R)

DEN

11

22

The third man right now in the Broncos QB battle despite the team trading up to take him 26th overall in the 2016 draft. He’s too raw to consider in redraft leagues, even if he was being considered for the starting job.

39

Dak Prescott (R)

DAL

7

23

Impressive performance from Prescott in his preseason debut. I’ve liked Prescott since starting the Mississippi State product in Draft Kings’ college contests.

40

Cardale Jones (R)

BUF

10

23

Another impressive performance from a rookie QB. It came around the same time the team inked Tyrod Taylor to a big deal, but you should have no concerns about drafting Jones as Taylor’s backup in any league.

41

A.J. McCarron

CIN

9

25

Like the other backups on this list, I like McCaron to provide replacement level production if he gets an opportunity

42

Geno Smith

NYJ

11

25

I was really impressed with Geno Smith’s performance at the end of 2014. I was also excited to see what he could do in 2015 until he ended up with a broken jaw in a locker room incident. Still, I feel like there’s a chance Smith could shine as a backup or move on to another team and impress if given an opportunity.

43

Zach Mettenberger

SD

11

25

I’ve been a Mettenberger fan for a while. Let’s be realistic. He’s no Philip Rivers, but if Rivers gets hurt, he’ll inherit one of the more potent passing offenses in the game.

44

Sean Mannion

LA

8

24

There’s some chatter Sean Mannion could be in the starting QB conversation. I’m not sure if that says more about Mannion or the sad state of his competition.

45

Brian Hoyer

CHI

9

30

Merely a handcuff to Cutler at this point, but he did understand throwing the ball to an elite receiver like Josh Gordon ended in points on the scoreboard. I’d like to think Hoyer could do the same with Alshon Jeffery and/or Kevin White if given the opportunity.

What do you think? Who’s the top quarterback on your board? Which quarterback is likely to emerge from the backup ranks to stardom in 2016?

Let us know in the comments.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=164422016-08-12T15:49:50Z2016-08-12T15:49:03ZLongtime readers know I consider average draft position a critical weapon in our fantasy draft arsenal.

ADP tells us who’s being picked where, and from that we can discern how other players and the entire industry is thinking. This allows us when we should target our sleepers and figure out when that big-name actually becomes too good a value to pass up.

This is the first in a series of ADP rankings. In these articles I’ll look at where players are going and whether they provide good, great or little value at the position where most of the industry is selecting them.

I’m using data from Fantasy Football Calculator, as I have for a number of seasons. The data was collected from 1,624 15-round, 12-team drafts conducted on the site Aug. 10-12.

ADP top 120 (101-120)

Won’t be as explosive as Martavis. Will have plenty of opportunities in this offense, but I’m reluctant to pay this price for him

102

9.03

Philip Rivers

QB

SD

10

One of my favorite QB picks in 2016. Imagine a world where Keenan Allen stays healthy

103

9.04

TJ Yeldon

RB

JAC

5

One of my top picks in 2015 will share backfield with Chris Ivory in 2016, making both zero-RB-worthy

104

9.08

Willie Snead

WR

NO

5

Addition of Mike Thomas in Marques Colston role could aid Snead, who looks better this year than he did in breakout 2015

105

9.08

Bilal Powell

RB

NYJ

11

Powell, along with Matt Forte, make for another pair of zero-RB picks. I prefer Powell because he has a lower cost

106

9.08

Ladarius Green

TE

PIT

8

Rumor that he may retire because of recurring headaches. He had two concussions in September last year. There was a lot of speculation he could erupt after finally moving out from under Antonio Gates shadow.

107

9.1

Torrey Smith

WR

SF

8

A No. 1 wide receiver in a Chip Kelly offense going in the 9th round? Steal

108

9.11

Derrick Henry

RB

TEN

13

If Henry and DeMarco split carries, this is a good price. If DeMarco gets all the carries, this is only a good price if you’re handcuffing him

109

9.11

Derek Carr

QB

OAK

6

I’ve been a Carr-backer since his rookie campaign. Before he had an elite WR. Great QB to pair with Rivers, Romo, Manning

110

9.11

Zach Ertz

TE

PHI

8

Increased catches and yards in 2015. Even slight uptick in TDs would have bumped him up a round or two. Serious upside. Great value

111

9.12

Denver Defense

DEF

DEN

11

In my 20 years of researching and playing fantasy football, I’ve never come across any good advice that says to draft a defense this early. Never.

112

10.01

Travis Benjamin

WR

SD

10

Went 68-966-5 for the Browns last year. This year, he has Allen across from him and Rivers throwing him the ball. I’m not waiting until 10.01 to pick Benjamin.

113

10.02

Darren Sproles

RB

PHI

8

Reports he’s the best back in Eagles camp. I still like Mathews though, making both parts of this duo zero-RB-worthy. Sproles is cheaper.

114

10.02

Arizona Defense

DEF

ARI

9

… But they have J.J. Nelson returning kicks and… It doesn’t matter. Read my Denver blurb and don’t take a defense until the final 2-3 rounds of your draft.

115

10.03

Sammie Coates

WR

PIT

8

I feel like Wheaton and Coates should both be right around here, mostly because of the offense. I’m more likely to own Coates in 2016, but I probably won’t draft any Pittsburgh WR not named Antonio Brown.

116

10.03

Steve Smith

WR

BAL

8

Smith has always been a streaky performer. You just hope he’s in your lineup and you need a 3-TD game when he goes off. I’d take a shot on Smith here. I’d take Aiken first.

117

10.04

Kamar Aiken

WR

BAL

8

Aiken is being drafted almost a round earlier than Smith on the high end and that makes a lot of sense to me. This ADP is way too low. Great upside if you get Aiken here.

118

10.05

Isaiah Crowell

RB

CLE

13

It appears the Instagram disaster has passed, leaving Crowell as an integral part in an offense potentially on the rise with a new coach, QB and the return of a star WR. He’ll split work with Duke Johnson Jr., but Crowell is a great risk-reward pick at this price

119

10.08

Tony Romo

QB

DAL

6

If Zeke gives the Dallas running game teeth and Romo and Dez can stay off the shelf, this ADP gets blown up. Romo is worth a pick at this price. Just make sure you pair him with an equally risk-reward-y backup

120

10.09

Seattle Defense

DEF

SEA

9

I wouldn’t even pick them at 12.06, which is as low as they’ve gone on Fantasy Football Calculator’s charts.

Any round or two of a fantasy draft will have its share of sleepers and busts to varying degrees. And, as anyone who has played fantasy knows, those sleepers and busts in the preseason will likely be very different than the sleepers and busts we see in our postseason reviews.

But I feel there is a lot of value to be had in the 9th and 10th rounds of fantasy drafts based on this ADP. There are only a few players I’m likely to avoid on this list, and most of them are defenses.

This realization continues to back up the industry-wide movement toward zero-RB and wait-on-quarterbacks theories. It also reminds us that if you end up having to take a Le’Veon Bell or a Jamaal Charles because they lasted too long, you can find some decent upside receivers late.

What do you think about these players? Do you use ADP in your preseason research? On draft day? Let us know in the comments.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=164322016-08-12T15:50:37Z2016-08-11T16:09:19ZPosition scarcity has been a buzz phrase in this industry for as long as I’ve been playing.

In this case scarcity refers to a drop-off in talent. There will be plenty of wide receivers on an NFL field this season, but many of them won’t be worth rostering.

Figuring out which position has the widest gap in talent gives you a considerable edge on draft and/or auction day.

For years, fantasy owners have touted the wait-on-quarterbacks mentality. It works, plain and simple. We like to zig when everyone else zags here at Chinstrap Ninjas. But don’t ever zig too soon in this case. It’s not worth it. There are just too many quarterbacks available to make picking one early a good investment

The Zero RB strategy is relatively new, compared to the quarterback plan above anyway, but it follows the same concept. In zero RB, you wait on running backs, instead focusing on wide receivers and top tight ends for a large portion of your draft. There are too many starter-caliber — i.e. good but not great — running backs around to go RB-RB-RB to start your draft these days.

All the wide receivers

Well, you do have to get players to fill out a full lineup at some point, but don’t pass up on a stud wide receiver or a receiver you think will have a big year to do it. And, yes, there becomes a point where you must draft Aaron Rodgers or Le’Veon Bell because they’ve fallen so far.

But in general, you want to think wide receiver-first. I haven’t seen too many people really explain the wide receiver fever spreading across the land beyond Antonio Brown and friends living at the top of preseason rankings. Allow me to try.

Value Based Drafting isn’t all bad

Value based drafting is something I’ve gotten away from in recent years. I prefer having a compass rather than a map on draft day. When I put a lot of effort into VBD, I put on blinders and follow the map. But this year — this week actually — I’m preparing for an auction draft for a new dynasty league.

I’ve done a handful of auction leagues but I’ve never calculated my own dollar values. So I got some VBD going, calculated some auction values and started building some cheatsheets. I can’t wait until they’re ready for you Ninjas. Soon.

The nice thing about VBD is it gives you a few more variables to look at when ranking players. One of the things I looked at was position scarcity. Part of the reason was because my league was going to include individual defensive players and kicking stats are part of the special teams position, which also includes punters.

So I’m looking at a unique scoring system with unique settings. I wanted to walk into the auction knowing exactly why I should focus on wide receivers and further back up some long-held and successful tactics I use just about every year.

Scarcity by position

Here’s a scarcity chart I put together using a value-based model. The first column is the difference between the last starter and the last top reserve player at the position. The second column is the difference between the last elite player and the last starter at the position. The third column is the difference between the last elite player and the top reserve. The larger the number, the larger the difference between the players in that sample:

ST.Res

Elite.ST

Elite.Res

AVG

Avpg

QB

7.53

28.81

36.34

24.23

1.51

RB

32.49

28.28

60.77

40.51

2.53

WR

36.96

79.08

116.04

77.36

4.84

TE

24.92

20.06

44.98

29.99

1.87

DL

8.50

9.50

18.00

12.00

0.75

LB

8.50

13.00

21.50

14.33

0.90

DB

6.50

7.50

14.00

9.33

0.58

ST

3.90

3.15

7.05

4.70

0.29

Before we go too much further, this was created for a league that starts 1 QB, 2RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE and 2 Flex players, which is a pretty standard league setup. Offensive scoring is pretty standard PPR except QBs get 6 points per touchdown pass and there is no penalty for turnovers. IDP scoring has been modified so those players score nearly as many points as the top offensive players.

As you can see from the chart, wide receivers have a wider range of scoring depth than any other position by a significant margin across nearly the entire board. They are only slightly better than running backs in the last starter vs. top reserve category. The elite vs. last starter category is the one that really stands out for wide receivers. You get nearly 80 points — almost five points per game (4.94) — more from an elite receiver than you do the worst starter. The next highest is quarterback, with 28.81 points, or 1.8 points per game.

What this chart tells me

The chart reveals a few things to me, things I’m going to take into every draft this year.

Don’t get clever or cocky, just take the darn wide receivers.

Wait on running backs, but make sure to get at least one of starter caliber. Try to get two.

Wait, wait, wait on quarterbacks. Then draft another wide receiver or running back. Then wait a little while longer. The difference between the final quarterback starter (Matthew Stafford, 12th) and the last good reserve (Ryan Fitzpatrick, 18th-ish — some teams probably won’t even draft or bid on a backup quarterback) is only 7.53 total points, less than half a point a game.

Even in a league that has sweeping changes to special teams, there’s minimal advantage to paying for an elite performer.

There’s no sense picking Rob Gronkowski when you can get this year’s Delanie Walker or Jordan Reed or Gary Barnidge or Tyler Eifert late in your draft or even off the waiver wire.

IDP numbers aren’t as low as special teams, but they’re close. My motto, for a few years now has been to never overpay for the top IDPs, like J.J. Watt and Luke Kuechly, in most leagues which also includes offensive players. I’ll talk more about his in a future post.

I hope this information helps you pick a winner in upcoming weekends. I know it’ll help me.

Good luck and happy drafting.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=164162016-08-12T15:52:01Z2016-08-01T12:00:29ZI’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, I’m not a huge fan of strength of schedule.

However, SoS was one of my starting points last year and I had a pretty fantastic year in 2015. So here we are with strength of schedule.

The metric looks at a defensive unit’s effectiveness on a given play as opposed to the final outcome — yards and/or fantasy points. This should be able, in theory, to provide us with a more accurate view of strength of schedule.

While I found success with this chart last season, I also wanted to tweak it a bit to see if we can make it better.

I used DVOA from 2015 and 2014 and, since it was on their chart, the unadjusted (non-DVOA) ranking from 2015. I feel adding a few more data points will help smooth out any outliers.

This year only the top four and bottom four defenses received bright green and bright red marks. The next six teams in each category received lighter shades. Then, using a formula that weighted the bright colors slightly higher, I rated each team’s schedule.

Easiest schedules

Detroit Lions

Dallas Cowboys

Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans

Chicago Bears

Detroit has the easiest schedule this season, based on our estimations. That bodes well for sleeper running backs Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick, newly signed Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones and returning standouts WR Golden Tate and TE Eric Ebron.

And if all those parts stand to benefit, so should Matthew Stafford.

Of course the real big concern there is how the loss of Calvin Johnson affects that team.

The Cowboys also have a cake schedule, not facing a single top-four defense while getting three bottom four defenses.

As if Ezekiel Elliott didn’t have enough hype already running behind that line.

Like the Lions, Cleveland is an aha revelation that should affect your draft day plans. Not only do the Browns get an easy schedule on paper, three of their first six matchups are favorable.

I was already excited about an uptick for the Browns with the arrival of new coach Hue Jackson.

Regardless of the quarterback situation, I look for the Phildalephia Eagles’ Jordan Matthews and Ryan Mathews to have stellar seasons in 2016. Not the least of which is because of their schedule.

Like the Cowboys, the Eagles get to face the Giants twice, Washington twice and they get a non-division game against the Bears, another bottom-barrel defense.

Baltimore and Houston are also very intriguing from a strength of schedule standpoint. I think there’s some value to steal from both teams, especially on draft day because both squads have favorable matchups early.

Toughest schedules

New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons

Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets

Buffalo Bills

Ouch. The Patriots lose Tom Brady for four games and also have to deal with the toughest schedule in the league on paper. They also may have a mess on their hands during Brady’s time off.

They face Arizona and Houston in weeks one and three, respectively making for a potential tough start to the season. Midseason they face the Seahawks then over weeks 12 through 16 — the heart of the fantasy playoffs, they have four unfavorable matchups in five games, including a meeting with the Broncos in week 15, the semifinal round in most leagues.

Like the Patriots, the 49ers have a killer start to the season with four out of their first five matchups being unfavorable.

Chip Kelly’s arrival had me a bit excited about how many more opportunities his quarterback — hopefully a rejuvenated Colin Kaepernick — will have to throw to Torrey Smith.

New Orleans is going to be a sell-early team if the strength of schedule holds form. Three of their first four matchups are favorable, including a likely shootout with the Giants in Week 2. however, after their week five bye, they go through a murderer’s row of eight bad matchups out of 10 games including meetings with the Seahawks, Broncos and Cardinals.

Other than Todd Gurley, I can’t say I expected to draft many Rams this season, but after seeing this ranking I’m not sure I’ll pay a premium for him in redraft leagues either.

The list rounds out with Atlanta, which will have to crushing stretches — weeks four through six and weeks 12 through 16.

Julio Jones is an extreme talent who will likely be able to overcome most obstacles, but it gives me pause on drafting Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and pretty much any other player on the squad.

Easiest early-season

We’ve gone over some of the early season schedules.

Dallas and Oakland stand out in big flashing lights with back-to-back-to-back favorable matchups, including two each against bottom four defenses.

Baltimore, Cleveland, Jacksonville, the Giants, Oakland and Washington go quite a long stretch to start the season without facing an unfavorable foe.

Easiest late-season

The late season edge goes to the Super Bowl runners-up Panthers. Carolina faces San Diego, Washington and Atlanta in weeks 14-16, the prime playoff weeks. They are the only team with such a favorable stretch at the end of the season.

There are a few others with good stretches though. The Eagles — who also start with a pair of cushy matchups and have one of the best schedules overall, face Washington in Week 14 and the Giants in Week 16.

The aforementioned Lions cap off their season against bottom four defenses in weeks 13, 14 and 15 and have a neutral matchup against the Cowboys in Week 16.

Chicago doesn’t face an unfavorable matchup after week 5, get two great matchups in Weeks 11 and 12 then cap it off with a meeting against Washington on championship weekend.

Cleveland has a similar schedule, not facing an unfavorable matchup after Week 9, getting the Giants in Week 12 and the Chargers on championship Sunday.

Toughest early-season

Teams with tough early-season schedules provide opportunities to trade for players who have underperformed but are likely to bounce back once the schedule evens out.

The Buccaneers, Titans, Rams and Jets all fit onto this list.

So if Marcus Mariota and Todd Gurley look human early in the season, float a couple offers out there to see if you can land two players who may define the next generation in the NFL.

Toughest late-season

There are some teams who, on paper, look like they could keep you from reaching your championship potential.

The Falcons and Patriots, as mentioned above, are the two scariest. Saints players may give fantasy owners the sweats, too. They don’t have a favorable matchup after week four and have five unfavorable matchups from weeks 10 through 15 — as you make your playoff push. They have a neutral matchup with the Buccaneers in Week 16.

Seattle is another tough option. They face the Panthers, Rams, and Cardinals in weeks 13, 15 and 16, respectively.

What do you think about strength of schedule? Is it an important part of your drafting strategy? Let us know in the comments.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=163932016-08-12T15:52:41Z2016-07-31T12:00:57ZIf we get out our field glasses we can see the start of the 2016 fantasy football season.

For some of us, a primer on July 31 or Aug. 1 is laughable. We’ve been diligently studying stats, running mock drafts and turning on Twitter notifications for our favorite NFL and fantasy writers.

But before Chinstrap Ninjas delves deep into 2016, I felt it necessary to discuss a few key points about last season, this season and the industry as a whole.

Some people didn’t even bother clicking on this article because they don’t need a primer. It’s their loss. It puts you one up on them going into this season.

Here are seven key lessons to get you started on the path to a fantasy football championship in 2016.

1. AB is the new LT, draft accordingly

It’s the era of the wide receiver in the NFL and if you’re not getting at least one stud WR and stocking up on WR sleepers you’re going to have a difficult time.

This movement didn’t happen overnight. NFL rule changes have made the passing game more effective. More long touchdowns means more points, which means more tickets, TV ratings and money.

I’m a curmudgeon. My first fantasy football pick was Barry Sanders back in 1996. That’s my kind of football. However, I recognize our situation. Last year was my most successful season to date. I had big gains in daily, had a championship winner and a couple championship contenders — almost all of them powered by Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Michal Floyd, I could go on. Those players were supplemented by free agent pickups like Chris Johnson, Dion Lewis and Thomas Rawls.

Zero running back is the buzzy draft strategy this year. It entails waiting until round six or so to pick your first running back. Late-round quarterbacks have been en vogue for a long time. And nobody picks kickers or defenses until the final rounds.

If you want to win, your strategy should be zero everything except wide receivers.

Running backs are the new wide receivers and Antonio Brown is the new LaDainian Tomlinson.

2. Opportunity is the most important thing …

You can think the world of a player like Arizona RB Kerwynn Williams, but starter David Johnson is primed for a huge season. If he needs a breather or gets injured, Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington will pick up the slack. That means a whole lot has to happen for Williams to get opportunity.

That’s an extreme example, but it illustrates my point: During your draft you want to focus on players with opportunity or a relatively clear road to opportunity — think Seattle backup running back C.J. Procise and the apparently fragile Thomas Rawls.

Players who become new starters are the kinds you want to target in your draft. Detroit WR Marvin Jones has put up some stellar performances with limited opportunities as the No. 2 or 3 option in Cincinnati. Now he is the likely starter on a Lions team that will have plenty of targets to go around after future Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson retired in the offseason.

Which running backs are in position for the most touches and a significant number of touches in the red zone? Which wide receivers could lead the NFL in targets? These are the players who will have the most opportunity to succeed in 2016.

Being able to recognize player opportunity or the potential for it is essential for success on draft day and in-season when you’re making waiver wire moves, trading or setting a lineup.

3. … But skill prevails in many cases

New stars burst onto the scene every year. Injury opens the door in many cases, but it’s the most skilled players who will blow through that door, taking down the door jamb with them en route to stardom.

Determining which players have the most skill can be tricky, but being able to recognize it and act as quickly as possible is essential to success.

So, where do we look? Previous performance and NFL Scouting Combine are pretty much all we have to go on. However, that isn’t an awful thing.

Fantasy baseball guru Ron Shandler says that when a player displays a skill he owns it. That means a 30-home run hitter can at any point in the rest of his career have a reasonable opportunity to hit 30 homers again.

Football players have a shorter shelf life, but the same thought process holds true here.

There are few a more factors that go into a running back scoring 12 touchdowns — from weather conditions to health of teammates to the wear and tear a 16-game NFL season has a human body — than what goes into the one-on-one hitter-pitcher interaction that leads to a home run.

But if a player puts up eye-popping numbers in college, or shines in the last quarter of his sophomore NFL season, we need to make some assumptions about a player’s skill and take calculated guesses about what they’ll do if they earn more opportunities.

4. Start with Fantasy Pros rankings

Let me say it again, start with fantasypros.com’s rankings. That is, literally, what I do.

Last season, I developed a set of spreadsheets that helped me determine my weekly rankings. They pushed me into the top 15% of players in the flyweight division at Rotogrinders.com, one of the premiere daily fantasy sports sites, and as I said above, led me to money in a couple season-long leagues.

The primary drivers in my algorithm are fantasypros.com’s rankings. I insert them first, then let the number-crunching begin.

They’re out there. They’re free. They’re the best in the business. You’re hurting yourself if you’re not using them or at least using rankings that are based on them, like ours.

5. Twitter is fantasy football insider trading

Stop. I see you shaking your head. I know you don’t care about Twitter, but the bottom line is that news and information flows quickly on the social media platform.

You follow the right people and news organizations and you’ll never miss an injury, a late scratch or rumors about game plan changes.

Yes, you have to deal with some photos of dogs, some photos of food, some complaints about random stuff. But if you’ve ever wondered how some of your leaguemates end up with that hot waiver wire prospect the week before they blow up, it’s probably because they got an inside tip from an NFL beat writer on Twitter.

Some of these lessons deserve their own articles later and I’ll certainly expand on this one, but for now, here are three must-follows during fantasy football season:

@adamlevitan

@Rotoworld_FB

@RapSheet

My Twitter is @epcn. I post about sports and news and video games and pieces of cake laying on the ground in parking lots.

6. Keep an open mind and always be consuming

Preseason and in-season, you want to wash your brain with as much fantasy football as you can stand.

Understand — really understand — as much about the sport and the game as you can. Read websites and twitter, listen to podcasts, watch videos.

Some people see brilliance as the ability to connect seemingly unconnected things — that’s how we got clocks with a built in alarms and clocks we can wear on our wrists. Having a wealth of football information allows us to connect the dots faster. It helps us decide when we should zag instead of zigging during our draft and which No. 3 wide receiver is going to go ballistic this week.

Even read contrarian pieces that maybe you don’t agree with. Go into it with an open mind, too, you might have a change of heart. If not, leave a comment and explain why you still disagree.

The websites writers and readers would appreciate the added perspective, no matter how unconventional it is.

7. Fantasy football is more fun when you win

I live for the draft, ninja. I do mocks until I fall asleep at my computer. I play daily fantasy mostly because I get an opportunity to “draft” multiple new lineups each week.

That’s enough for me, really.

There are others who would rather pull off three blockbuster trades — and five other three-way deals to acquire the necessary pieces for those blockbusters — than win. Sure, they tell themselves they’re trading to make their team better, but for many the fantasy football season is all about the art of the trade.

Still others live for those one or two matchups each year with that co-worker two stations over who they share lunch with.

Those moments make this pastime fun. But if you’re one of those people, you’re on this site and you’ve read this far, you want more out of your fantasy experience.

Or if you’ve been playing long enough you’ve had success, you know how fun it is to win and you’re looking for an edge against a veteran lineup of leaguemates.

Still others have been readers for a few years now. Welcome back.

I exhaust quite a few hours in the preseason and in-season to give myself every edge possible. Then I regurgitate the key bits onto these pages for you.

Thanks for reading and for visiting our site. Leave a comment below. Tell us how you found out about us or why you’re excited about the 2016 season. Happy drafting.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=163822015-12-26T20:39:49Z2015-12-26T20:39:10ZI’ve spent most of my time this week trying to put together the best championship lineups in season long, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to avoid daily fantasy. Next week there could be some big names in big games taking weeks off. There could be players getting starts because teams want to see what they have for the future.

For the same reason season-long leagues usually hold their championships in Week 16, this will be the last week I consider playing cash games.

That said, I didn’t play any cash last week over three sites and profited. My biggest hit was $40 on a $2 Yahoo tournament, but it was enough to push me well into the black.

All of the tools I use to make roster decisions are in all of the posts I write here each week. If you read articles like this one, you can pretty much figure out who my quarterback-wide receiver stacks are and who I think will be the best, must-have values. Then, using our projected scores column and our rankings, you can fill out your lineup and make something almost identical to mine if you like.

Just don’t expect me to post a full lineup. I think that’s kind of wart on this fine industry.

Ok, let’s get to the rankings fine print, then the sleepers and values at Draft Kings for Week 16.

As always check late NFL news at a site like Rotoworld to make sure games are being played and players are in lineups.

Our rankings will be updated early Sunday morning and don’t always reflect final starting lineups. I went over the biggest matchups in our projected scores/Las Vegas column. When push comes to shove, I construct daily fantasy rosters based more on the research done for that column than these rankings.

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger, $6,800, PIT at BAL — There’s not a better value on the board this week in daily fantasy than Big Ben at sub-$7,000. For that reason, I believe there will be a lot of people on him this week in tournaments.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, $5,200, NYJ vs. NE — The Patriots defense is playing better than it was earlier in the year when Fitzpatrick had a good game against them. However, the Jets are going to have to keep up with the Patriots in the scoring department and he has two elite receivers to throw to.

Kirk Cousins, $5,500, WAS at PHI — I picked up Cousins to consider starting him over Aaron Rodgers this week in one of my championship games. I don’t think I can pull the trigger on it, but I do like Cousins’ matchup and recent performance that match. His salary here at Draft Kings is even more of a reason to start him.

Alex Smith, $5,100, KC vs. CLE — Smith is a game manager. We can’t expect much out of him, however this near basement-level price for QBs on DK gives you room to work at other positions. And with Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Charcandrick West as weapons against a bad defense, a few fluky Browns touchdowns could force a shootout.

Tyrod Taylor, $5,500, BUF vs. DAL — Taylor is going to throw for 250, rush for 50 and be responsible for a touchdown or two each week. His price feels criminally low.

Blake Bortles, $6,500, JAC at NO — Which quarterback is facing the Saints this week? The one with an elite receiver who’s had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in every week since Week 5, and an elite-tier tight end who is finally producing like he did in Denver.

Matthew Stafford, $6,100, DET vs. SF — Calvin Johnson’s stat line looked old last week, but I suspect he’ll bounce back against a poor 49ers defense. Golden Tate has really stepped up this season as well.

Running backs

David Johnson, $5,800, ARI vs. GB — If Roethlisberger is value 1A this week, Johnson is 1A-and-a-half. A sub-$6,000 RB who should get 25-30 touches, is a goal-line threat and is a former wide receiver on a high-powered offense is a must-own in all formats.

James White, $4,700, NE at NYJ — The Patriots wide receiver corps is banged up, leading to more opportunities for the team’s latest pass-catching back. He could approach 8-10 catches this week.

Bilal Powell, $3,900, NYJ vs. NE — Powell has become more involved in the offense toward the end of the season. He’s scored each of the last three weeks and is a threat in the passing game. He’s a far better choice than Chris Ivory, who many fantasy owners will gravitate toward.

Ryan Mathews, $3,800, PHI vs. WAS — If last year you told me Mathews would be $3,800 at any point and he was healthy he would be in every single one of my lineups. He’s a playmaker when healthy and should easily outproduce this price with extreme upside if the Eagles use him the right way.

Frank Gore, $4,000, IND at MIA — I was surprised by how solid Gore’s fantasy points are in PPR leagues this season. He doesn’t have two touchdown upside — he did score twice against the Titans in September — but at $4,000, he provides some serious value and a pivot off White and Powell, who should be higher owned.

DeAngelo Williams, $6,500, PIT at BAL — Pittsburgh’s do-it-all back is always busy, whether it’s Williams or LeVeon Bell. I suspect we’ll see more of the same this week against the Ravens.

Charles Sims, $3,300, TB vs. CHI — Has at least 70 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three games and has at least three catches in four of the last five. If he got in the end zone with any kind of frequency (he’s only scored once since Week 4) he’d be way more expensive than $3,300.

Rashad Jennings, $3,500, NYG at MIN — The Giants have treated Jennings like a feature back each of the last two weeks and he’s responded. Two weeks ago against the Dolphins he went 22-81 with two catches. Then against the Panthers he rushed for 107 and a touchdown on 16 carries. He’s a sneaky play at a near basement-level salary.

Javorius Allen, $4,200, BAL vs. PIT — Allen has been a massive disappointment for back-to-back weeks, but in his defense it was against the Seahawks and Chiefs. Even if he hadn’t fumbled it would have been a tough road to fantasy relevance. The Steelers are a bit easier matchup, but more importantly, pace should work in Buck’s favor. This is projected to be the fourth-fastest paced game of the week.

Jeremy Langford, $3,400, CHI at TB — Matt Forte is still the lead back, but this is that wonderful time of the year when teams look at what they’ll have for the future. It’s merely speculation for tournaments, but maybe Langford gets a few more snaps and his fresh legs can bust out for a long touchdown or two. That happens, and you own him at just $3,400, you have yourself the fixins’ of a tournament-winner.

Wide receivers

Rueben Randle, $3,500, NYG at MIN — Eli Manning is going to throw the ball 40 times. He just is. He has to throw to someone. Randle is the most talented of the receivers left on the roster. He’s low-risk because of the price, but if he gets Odell Beckham Jr.-level targets and can convert most of them, there is potential for ultra-high reward.

DeSean Jackson, $5,000, WAS at PHI — Jackson was available in the same league in which I picked up Cousins. There was no question Jackson was going directly into my starting lineup this week against the Eagles’ “defensive” secondary.

Anquan Boldin, $3,700, SF at DET — After a pair of disappointing weeks, Boldin racks up eight catches, 74 yards and his third touchdown catch of the season against the Bengals. He’s pulled us back in. He should be forced into some extra work this week against the Lions and is the 49ers’ top candidate to get into the end zone this week.

Martavis Bryant, $5,600, PIT at BAL — Everybody talks about Bryant’s freakish speed/size combo and his big-play ability, but he’s had at least three catches in every game this season and at least five in four of the last five weeks. He’s had 69 or more yards in four of the last five weeks, including two of his three 100-yard games. The only thing he hasn’t been doing as frequently lately is getting in the end zone. He’s a strong play in tournaments or cash games in this offense, at this price.

Antonio Brown, $9,300, PIT at BAL — We use a formula, a couple spreadsheets and a handful of other factors to determine our DFS values. So when it spits out Brown despite being the most expensive player on Draft Kings, it means he’s a must-play in every format. Of course, everyone knows how often he is, so he’ll be highly owned in tournaments. In this case, I’d make an argument that you should look elsewhere to differentiate your lineup and keep Brown in there.

Jeremy Maclin, $6,000, KC vs. CLE — Maclin is one of my keepers in season-long. He’s been way better than you’d expect based on Alex Smith’s numbers this season. He’s cooled off a bit the last two weeks after back to back 9-catch games during which he racked up a combined 255 yards and three TDs. However, his “cool” weeks, were a combined 13 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. The Browns have the fifth-worst pass defense based on DVOA.

Dorial Green-Beckham, $4,000, TEN vs. HOU — Green-Beckham is emerging as a potential NFL star, but more importantly this week he has a quarterback who doesn’t mind throwing the ball all over the place no matter how many interceptions he racks up.

Dwayne Harris, $3,000, NYG at MIN — What we said about Randle applies to Harris, if he’s healthy. He’s riskier, sure, but he costs $500 less and will be much lesser owned.

Markus Wheaton, $4,100, PIT at BAL — Wheaton is the cheap option if you want in on the Steelers’ high-octane offense. He doesn’t have the ceiling of either of the other receivers, but he has a 9-catch, 200-yard game this season and has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. He also has at least 50 yards in each of the last four weeks.

Jermaine Kearse, $3,200, SEA vs. STL — Doug Baldwin has benefited considerably more from Jimmy Graham’s injury, but Kearse has been rock solid each of the last two weeks, with seven catches each week and a combined 184 yards. Four weeks ago he scored two touchdowns. Everyone — including the Rams defense — should be on Baldwin this week. Kearse is a very inexpensive other option should have a floor that easily pays off his salary and a ceiling that could push you over the top in a tournament.

Tight ends

Will Tye, $3,500, NYG at MIN — It feels good to see a handful of your season-long championship players on these lists. Tye might stand to benefit most from Odell Beckham Jr.’s suspension. I suspect he’ll get at least six targets and get in the end zone at least once this week.

Heath Miller, $3,400, PIT at BAL — Despite the Broncos being notoriously bad against tight ends, Miller disappeared last week after a 10-catch, 66-yard game the week before. I can’t recommend him in cash games, but since November, Miller has two 10-catch games, a 100-yard game and at least forty yards in four of six games. Meanwhile, he hasn’t gotten into the end one since Sept. 20. That’s a whole lot of usage for a big target without finding the end zone.

Eric Ebron, $2,900, DET vs. SF — Sometimes matchups work despite how bad a player is. Ebron had four catches for 79 yards last week, which certainly paid off his salary. Two weeks ago he got in the endzone on one of his two catches and finished with nine yards. Again, salary met. This week against the 49ers (8th-worst in DVOA against the TE) — he needs just nine points once again to pay off his salary.

Zach Ertz, $3,100, PHI vs. WAS — Got into the end zone in two of the last three weeks and in the game where he didn’t he accumulated 98 yards on five catches. But last week against the Cardinals is the real clincher — 8-78-1. When the Eagles pass game is clicking, Zach Ertz is involved.

Zach Miller, $4,000, CHI at TB — Has at least five targets in five of the last six weeks, with a 100-yard, two-touchdown game, an 85-yard game and a six-catch, 57 yard game.

Travis Kelce, $4,300, KC vs. CLE — On another offense, Kelce would be a superstar and likely priced way higher than he is right now. That said, he went 6-73 last week and had at least five catches in eight of the first 10 weeks of the season.

Defenses

Houston Texans, $2,800, HOU at TEN

Seattle Seahawks, $4,300, SEA vs. STL

Denver Broncos, $3,400, DEN vs. CIN

Kansas City Chiefs, $4,200, KC vs. CLE

Carolina Panthers, $3,700, CAR at ATL

Minnesota Vikings, $2,500, MIN vs. NYG

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $2,500, TB vs. CHI

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=163762015-12-26T20:40:54Z2015-12-24T16:36:49ZWelcome to championship week, Ninja. All your hard work is about to pay off. Well, actually depending on your league structure you’re already in the money.

Let’s get that top prize, though. It’s so close.

I went into last weekend with four teams alive, three in money leagues. All three of those money teams advanced and they’re playing for all the marbles this weekend. Couple that with my 600% profit at daily fantasy and I’m looking at one of my best, if not the best, fantasy football seasons of all time.

I credit you. (And caffeine.) Because of you I’ ve been doing extra research, pouring over statistics and charts and other people’s advice to try to come up with the best information I can.

As expected, it’s trickled down into my teams and daily fantasy lineups. This week’s rankings, as they have been for weeks, are of the boom-or-bust variety. They have served me well in the run up to championship week.

Remember we have tonight’s game — Chargers at Raiders — and we also have a Saturday game — Redskins at Eagles. There are piles of fantasy storylines in those two contests, so make sure you check your lineups before the start of each game to make sure you aren’t forgetting someone or missing a potential huge play.

Ok, let’s get to the rankings fine print, then the rankings.

As always check late NFL news at a site like Rotoworld to make sure games are being played and players are in lineups.

Our rankings will be updated early Sunday morning and don’t always reflect final starting lineups. I went over the biggest matchups in our projected scores/Las Vegas column. When push comes to shove, I construct daily fantasy rosters based more on the research done for that column than these rankings.

Early Week 16 rankings

Use the tabs at the bottom to cycle through positions. Use the arrows at bottom right to find more positions.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick at sixth probably stands out the most. As I said in the projected scores article, the Patriots are expected to throw the ball a lot, which means the pace will increase. Fortunately for the Jets and Fitzpatrick owners there are enough weapons on this roster to allow them to keep up.

That said, you’re probably wondering why Tom Brady is 12th. Well, you’re not going to bench big game Brady at this point in the season if he’s gotten you this far. He’s among the most safe plays out there. But he’s a bit overpriced in daily fantasy and the Jets have shut down wide receivers in the last two weeks. More importantly they have been extremely effective against tight ends all season. Their biggest game allowed was 108 yards and a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski, but it took 16 targets and 11 catches to get that.

Running backs

James White at No. 2 might have caused a double-take. However, if the Patriots throw as much as expected, and the Jets are as effective as mentioned above, it likely means White will get quite a bit of usage. I could see his ranking drop by Sunday, but not outside of the top-10.

Bilal Powell, Latavius Murray and Danny Woodhead are all pretty highly ranked. Notice anything about them? They’re all pass-catching backs. Woodhead is coming off a four-touchdown game. We don’t want to chase points, but he was clearly the top target in the Chargers offense and the Chargers don’t have the option of seeing what Melvin Gordon can do for them now.

Powell has been more effective than Chris Ivory and his pass-catching ability means he’ll probably more active in a potential shootout with a division rival.

I like Murray a lot this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, according to DVOA. He already gets a lot of usage as a runner and receiver, but he could get some extra work this week.

Wide receivers

What a wild wide receiver world we live in where Doug Baldwin has scored 8,000 touchdowns in the last few weeks and he’s only around 10th. Crazy.

Jeremy Maclin and Martavis Bryant are ranked a little high, I guess. Maclin has proven to be a WR1 even when Alex Smith is just managing games. Every spot against Cleveland is a good spot right now.

Bryant, the size/speed freak he is, plays in one of the best offenses in the league. Baltimore won’t be able to contain him.

Tight ends

This is about as chalk as it gets, sorry, but it’s hard to go against Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates.

I like Will Tye this week, but I wouldn’t even think of starting him over any of those guys.

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=163652015-12-26T20:40:32Z2015-12-23T22:08:59ZWelcome to our weekly column where I dive into the Las Vegas odds to find the best players with the best matchups in what Las Vegas thinks will be the best games for fantasy football this week.

If you’re reading this you’re either elbow deep into daily fantasy — hello, I hope to see you in the top five with some major moolah on the line. I’m epcn across the fantasy landscape and @epcn on Twitter. Let me know if we’re facing off — or you are deciding between several awesome options on a championship final squad.

Congratulations if you’re in the finals. My work for the site this season — mostly this column, which is the most intense thing I work on each week — led me into five semifinals, four in pay leagues. Now I’m in three finals, all pay leagues. And I’m up 600% in daily fantasy across Draft Kings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with a $40 tournament win last week at Yahoo. (I also won $20 on a $3 Draft Kings NBA tournament Monday, but more on that in a couple weeks when we bury daily fantasy NFL for 2015-16).

A ton of money changes hands in Las Vegas sportsbooks on NFL Sundays.

They have crack teams of number crunchers who are way better than me and you when it comes to guessing likely scores of NFL games.

Many sports fans have joked about a team kicking a late field goal to finish just under or over the betting line, as if the game was fixed or something. And, well, the game bettors play is kind of fixed, because those aforementioned number crunchers are so darn good at what they do.

It would be foolish for the fantasy football community to ignore these experts. We are better when we take the sums of many parts to form our opinions about players and situations, and Las Vegas betting odds need to be one of the primary parts of the equation.

Here are the projected scores using the current (early) over/under and betting odds for fantasy football championship week, Week 16 of the 2015 NFL season.

Games are listed from Las Vegas-implied highest- to lowest-scoring based on over/unders. No teams on bye.

First thing to note: That 45.5 over/under for the Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans game is mine, well, actually, it’s the average this week across the NFL. There’s no number for that one, yet. But the scores seem fine to me. The sportsbooks do have the Titans favored by 4.5.

Before we get into the blowouts, close games and fastest-paced (yes, that’s NEW!) games, let’s talk about some general stuff.

First that Jacksonville-New Orleans game is the only one coming in over 52 points. It’s supposed to be close and fast-paced. The Green Bay-Arizona game comes in at nearly 50 points, with the Cardinals a pretty big favorite at home.

There are no games below 40 points, but we have two at 40.5 — Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos and St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks.

Let’s get into the blowouts and close games.

As always, remember a team expected to have a big lead, especially playing at home, usually represents a great matchup for its running back and defense. Quarterbacks and receivers on the losing end of a blowout are prime candidates for garbage time, again, especially at home. Meanwhile, in games that are expected to be close means we can expect the game script to follow suit. Top talents and matchups should be in full effect.

We use composite odds and over/unders from Vegas Insider to generate the projected scores. I will reference Defense-adjusted Value Over Average a lot, it is a Football Outsiders’ metric which can be a better predictor of future success than fantasy points allowed. All team rankings and yards allowed to receivers are referenced from Football Outsiders’ Defense Efficiency page. This is one of our first features of the week, so keep an eye out for late injuries and lineup changes.

Blowouts (7 points or more)

Typically blowouts provide good opportunities for winning running backs and their defenses, as they try to put away the win, and losing quarterbacks and their wide receivers, in garbage time. All of these advantages are amplified for home teams.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) — As detailed below, this game features two of the slower teams in the NFL, making this one the likely third slowest-paced game of the week. The Seahawks’ Russell Wilson could easily throw for five more TDs against a Rams pass defense that has allowed more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last five weeks than any team in the NFL. And that could all happen in the first half, leaving us with steady doses of Christine Michael. Ninja, he’s been cut by too many teams for me to really put much faith in him. But the Rams also rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to running backs in the last five weeks. The Rams passing defense, on paper, looks strong against all receiver types against tight ends and receiving running backs. But if I drop $1 on a Wilson-led DK tournament team, I’m stacking Doug Baldwin or going home. The Seahawks have experienced some weakness against slot/bench receivers and tight ends. As much as I don’t trust Christine Michael, I trust Jared Cook less. However, like I said in the waiver wire article, he’s probably not the worst TE play of the week. Austin is probably the only part of the Rams offense that I’ll consider in more than one daily fantasy lineup. Over the last five weeks, the Seahawks have allowed just 200 rushing yards to running backs, the least in the NFL. They’ve also only allowed one total touchdown to them, tied for the least in the NFL. They have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards, but that’s not enough for me to consider Todd Gurley too heavily this week.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) — This should be a huge week for Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, if he plays. Cleveland allowed at least 98 yards from scrimmage to running backs in each of the first eight weeks and gave up 84 yards on just 16 carries to Christine Michael last week. I also don’t expect the Chiefs to ask Alex Smith to do more than be a game manager as usual. Jeremy Maclin has proven he can have a solid game, even if Smith doesn’t do much. This might also be a good spot for Travis Kelce. The Browns gave up a three-TD game to Tyler Eifert this season and a two-TD game to Troy Niklas. However, they haven’t given up many yards, so I’m not sure Kelce is a good option in cash games. The Chiefs are top-five against both the run and the pass, however, they have struggled against No. 1 wide receivers this season, so Travis Benjamin could surprise and a contrarian Benjamin-Johnny Manziel stack will likely be low-owned against against a strong defense in the projected second-slowest pace game of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Baltimore Ravens — The Steelers-Ravens game is projected to be the fourth-fastest paced game of the week. The garbage time factor should be in full effect as the Ravens play from behind, at home against an offense that, at times, looks like it could put up whatever score it wants. Let’s start with them. Kamar Aiken has been way better than he gets credit for and the Steelers have allowed 86.5 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers and 76.5 yards per game to No. 2 receivers. That also means whoever starts between Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen will be an interesting DFS play. On the Steelers side, well, I shouldn’t have to tell you anything. If you’re in the championship, no matter what I say here you’re probably starting Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and DeAngelo Williams. You’re probably even going to start Markus Wheaton if you have him. Jermaine Kearse’s 100-yard receiving game a few weeks ago was the only one allowed by the Ravens since Week 6. However, I think this Steelers offense is every bit as dangerous as that Seahawks offense which had a monster game for everyone against Baltimore. One last Steelers concern: Pittsburgh is on the road and this is a division game against a common opponent.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-9) — Kendall Gaskins? I’m not going to consider a single 49ers player this week. Maybe Blaine Gabbert and Vance McDonald or Blake Bell in a weird DFS quarter arcade. The Lions, on the other hand, get a great matchup for fantasy owners who survived last Megatron last week, or took advantage of Matthew Stafford to Golden Tate. Ameer Abdullah was pretty good too. He’s in a great spot against a defense that has just been crushed by running backs in the last five weeks. They’ve been so dominant few quarterbacks have had to do anything against them. That said, they gave up a 3-TD game to Russell Wilson and earlier in the season got blasted by Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and even Joe Flacco. If the Lions end up leading by nine points at some point, it’s likely because of some combination of Stafford and Tate and/or Calvin Johnson.

Carolina Panthers (-7) at Atlanta Falcons — As outstanding as the Panthers defense has been, they’ve given up four-TD games to Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and a three-TD game to Drew Brees. The Falcons offense has been inconsistent at best, but don’t be surprised if they come in with a little extra juice in a division game, late in the season, against an undefeated opponent with an elite wide receiver against an elite cornerback who might catch some extra scrutiny from officials. Jones had seven catches for 88 yards in the last meeting with Norman. Let’s call that the baseline.Devonta Freeman is pretty much matchup-proof as well and the Panthers just allowed Shane Vereen to make eight catches and score a TD. The Panthers should win however they want to. Cam Newton threw three touchdowns against them last time — two to Ted Ginn, who had 120 yards. I think that was the game where he dropped two other potential long TDs. The Falcons also gave up five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks, so whichever running back is expected to get the lion’s share of carries is a prime candidate to get in the end zone. I hope it’s rookie Cameron Artis-Payne.

Close games (3 points or less)

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) — The Eagles have allowed the most passing touchdowns, the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most passing yards to quarterbacks in the last five weeks. I picked up Kirk Cousins in one league to consider playing him over Aaron Rodgers in the championship game. With those passing expectations also comes our expectations for TE Jordan Reed. The Eagles have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receviers, the most in the NFL, and are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to the position. So let’s keep DeSean Jackson in play after a huge week last week. Pierre Garcon might also be a sneaky play in daily fantasy sports tournaments. He scored last week. Now, back to Reed. It’s not a great matchup. However, Cousins throws the ball to him too much for him not to get some sort of volume of plays. The Redskins have allowed the 10th-most passing yards to quarterbacks and the fourth-most touchdowns to the position over the last five weeks, so it’s likely another good spot for Sam Bradford, coming off one of his best week’s of the season. Like the Eagles, the Redskins have been far more giving to wide receiver than tight ends over the last five weeks, so while we need to consider Zach Ertz based on his recent performance, we should also consider Jordan Matthews who surprised us all by being fantasy relevant last week. The Eagles have allowed eight total touchdowns to running backs over the last five weeks, second-most in the NFL, and have allowed the most yards from scrimmage to the position by a large margin — they lead in both rushing yards allowed AND receiving yards allowed. I’d feel better about those stats if I knew for sure which of Washington’s backs to play. It’s probably Alfred Morris, but I wish it was Matt Jones.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) — Andrew Luck is out, which is unfortunate because this game could be the third-fastest pace of the week. The Dolphins didn’t really live up to expectations last week. These teams have allowed a combined 26 touchdowns, more than five per game, to opposing quarterbacks in the last five weeks. I look for this one to push considerably over the implied total. That means we’re likely to see some big fantasy performances come out of this one. The most talented player on the field is probably T.Y. Hilton. Jarvis Landry is potentially the biggest PPR play of the week. The matchups point to good games for No. 1 receivers on both sides. The Colts have been gashed by running backs for three weeks in a row, which could mean more room for Lamar Miller. It’s too bad he’s been so inconsistent this season. The Dolphins gave up 90 yards on 12 carries to Donald Brown and four total touchdowns to Danny Woodhead last week, a week after allowing Rashad Jennings to post 102 total yards a week after allowing Buck Allen to post 167 total yards and 10 catches. Frank Gore is still the lead dog for the Colts and could be in line for one of his best games of the season.

New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets — I just saw a tweet from Adam Levitan, one of the smartest people in fantasy football. He said, and i’m paraphrasing here, the Patriots’ Tom Brady has thrown a ton and have averaged just 12 carries per game in the last three meetings with the Jets. Over the last five weeks, the Jets have allowed the ninth-most passing yards to quarterbacks and the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. This could be a big week for Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and/or Keshawn Martin. Of course, whenever we’re talking about Patriots passing, Rob Gronkwoski is our primary receiving target. The path of least resistance against the Patriots is on the ground, where they’ve allowed the ninth-most rushing yards and fifth-most TDs to running backs in the last five weeks. Bilal Powell has been more effective than Chris Ivory, but I think the team stays committed to Ivory at least in a committee role. It would be stupid for us to not consider Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at home against a division rival. They’ve been among the best and most consistent in football, making them strong players to consider despite lackluster matchups.

Pace determined by average of both teams’ time between plays. Faster pace means more plays than usual likely to be executed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints game doesn’t fit into any of our parameters above, but we definitely need to talk about it. It’s supposed to be the second-fastest paced and highest scoring game of the week. So that means a Santa’s gift bag full of fantasy goodness for us.

The Saints are a mess on defense, but they are particularly bad against tight ends and running backs (both running and in the passing game), which means Julius Thomas and Denard Robinson should be our top options to go along with Blake Bortles.

The Jaguars are susceptible to No. 1 receivers, tight ends and pass-catching backs. Again, a lot of the Saints success will hinge on Drew Brees’ health, but Brandin Cooks and Ben Watson are the top options here. Tim Hightower is an interesting play, but the Jaguars typically do well against running backs and funnel action to opposing passing games.

Pace determined by average of both teams’ time between plays. Slower pace means fewer plays than usual likely to be executed.

Projected high scores

Teams with a higher projected score should also have higher projected fantasy points, so it doesn’t hurt to see which teams are expected to go bananas and which ones are supposed to drop an egg.

Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals at home are expected to win relatively easily against the Packers, but let’s not count out Aaron Rodgers against any defense. That would be a best case scenario because the way the Cardinals are right now, they only need to complete a touchdown pass or two then let David Johnson continue his emergence to superstardom. I wonder how long Carson Palmer plays in this one, or how long David Johnson does for that matter. They’ve been unstoppable, winning eight in a row. The Seahawks can’t catch them, but they could lose the No. 2 seed to the Packers if they lose out and GB wins out. Looking for someone to stack with Rodgers on the other side? Try Randall Cobb, as a what-the-heck option in a big game. The matchup points to Richard Rodgers but his value is completely reliant on touchdowns. Pass-catching backs also have a bit of an advantage against the Cardinals, but I can’t recommend any part of the Packers backfield right now.

Oakland Raiders — I wish the Chargers were more generous to opposing running games. That’s really where Oakland’s strength is. DVOA suggests the Chargers are way worse against the pass than their fantasy points allowed or yardage allowed indicate, so Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, they’re all in play. Tight ends have done well against the Chargers, too, so Clive Walford and/or Mychal Rivera might be considered as what-the-heck starters. The Chargers have the 31st-ranked DVOA run defense, which also goes against yardage and fantasy points allowed. If the DVOA rings true then Latavius Murray becomes a very interesting, very low-owned option in daily fantasy leagues.

Minnesota Vikings — I’m not sure what Odell Beckham Jr.’s suspension being overturned does to the projected score in this one, but I have to believe it was factored in. Watch this line as the week progresses. The Vikings are not an easy matchup for any receiver type, but they do allow a bit more to No. 2 wide receivers and tight ends. If the Giants can get Will Tye and/or Reuben Randle going, it’s going to loosen things up for Beckham. The Giants also have shown a commitment to give carries to Rashad Jennings the last few weeks and he’s put up low-end feature back yardage totals — including 100 total last week. The hope is that all of that comes to pass, which forces the Vikings to let Teddy Bridgewater open things up to Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, who could have huge games if this thing shoots out. The Giants can’t stop tight ends or No. 1 receivers. They can’t stop running backs receiving out of the back field either and Adrian Peterson doesn’t need a good matchup or a passing boost for me to recommend him to you.

Projected scores

Pittsburgh Steelers

28.75

New Orleans Saints

27.75

Kansas City Chiefs

27.75

Carolina Panthers

27.25

Arizona Cardinals

27

Seattle Seahawks

27

Oakland Raiders

26

Detroit Lions

26

Minnesota Vikings

25.75

Philadelphia Eagles

25.5

Tennessee Titans

25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

24.5

Buffalo Bills

24.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

24.25

New England Patriots

24.25

Miami Dolphins

22.75

Green Bay Packers

22.5

Washington Redskins

22.5

Denver Broncos

22

Chicago Bears

21.5

Indianapolis Colts

21.25

New York Jets

21.25

San Diego Chargers

21

Houston Texans

20.5

Atlanta Falcons

20.25

New York Giants

19.75

Baltimore Ravens

18.75

Dallas Cowboys

18.5

Cincinnati Bengals

18.5

San Francisco 49ers

17

Cleveland Browns

15.25

St. Louis Rams

13.5

]]>ephttp://www.chinstrapninjas.comhttp://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=163602015-12-26T20:40:12Z2015-12-22T16:59:49ZMy hope was that you didn’t have to read this because it means your championship game lineup has holes in it. Maybe not gaping holes, but holes you feel need to be addressed nonetheless.

If you’re reading this, it also probably means you either own Cam Newton, Russell Wilson or Tom Brady or you are going up against them. If you own them, you’re going to skip the quarterback section. If you’re facing them, you may check the list just to make sure Kirk Cousins isn’t a better play for you. (That’s foreshadowing. He might actually be a better play than your quarterback this week.)

You’ve made it here. It’s no time to stop harvesting from the waiver wire. There are still fate-changing gems to be found. Hopefully you have the waiver priority or free agent bucks to take advantage of them

Players listed are mostly available in at least 60% of Yahoo leagues. In some cases I’ll add a player in the 61%-85% range just because they shouldn’t be so available. You may not play in a Yahoo league, but if they are available in so many of these leagues they are possibly available in yours.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, 25% owned at Yahoo — This is the top pickup of the week. Fresh off a five (5!) touchdown performance last week, Cousins gets to face the poor Eagles pass defense. He’s available in three quarters of leagues on Yahoo

Ryan Fitzpatrick, 53% — He was a relative dud last week in a slow-paced game against the Cowboys, but still posted 299 yards and a touchdown pass. In the previous three games he averaged three touchdowns per game. He also has two or more touchdowns in nine games.

Sam Bradford, 35% — Bradford is a risky play, but throwing for 361 and two touchdowns against the Cardinals is no small feet. He has two touchdowns in two of his last three games and faces a Redskins defense that is beatable.

Blaine Gabbert, 3% — Gabbert was picked off three times, but threw 50 times for 295 yards and a touchdown against a tough Bengals defense. This week he faces a Lions defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. There’s sneaky upside here, but it comes with high risk.

Tyrod Taylor, 58% — His ownership percentage is on the high end for this list, but it should be. He’s a threat to throw and run, which makes him a viable option in nearly any matchup.

Jameis Winston, 43% — Got after the Rams defense for 363 yards and two touchdown passes. He gets another neutral matchup this week against the Bears.

Jay Cutler, 41% — The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Cutler has thrown two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

Teddy Bridgewater, 37% — Impressive fantasy performances in back-to-back weeks are inflated a bit by a four-TDs on only 20 passes last week. However, he gets the Giants pass “defense” this week, so he may only need 15 attempts to throw four TDs.

Brandon Weeden, 0% — I know! Just here me out. I got two words for you: DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has made Brian Hoyer look great at points this season. This is a high-risk play with some upside, which you might need depending on your league.

Here are a few other players in the high risk/some upside category: Jimmy Clausen (if Matt Schaub sits), Zach Mettenberger, Kellen Moore.

Running backs

Ameer Abdullah, 60% — Nine carries for 77 yards and a touchdown? Where was that all season? Never mind. What matters now is that if he’s on your roster you have to consider him this week against the 49ers, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs. If he’s not on your roster he’s available in 60% of Yahoo leagues.

James White, 52% — Caught seven of eight targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Is averaging about 7-70-.7 in the last three games. While the Jets have been stingy to opposing running backs, they haven’t been particularly great against pass-catching backs.

Christine Micheal, 12% — Rose to the top of the Seahawks running back food chain after being cut by them earlier this season and bouncing around on the Cowboys roster for a time. It’s another decent matchup against the Rams this week. There is quite a bit of risk with this pick, but there is a decent amount of upside too,

Bilal Powell, 21% — Has been more effective than Chris Ivory of late. Rushed for 25 yards and a touchdown and caught 7-54 on seven targets. New England isn’t a particularly great matchup for running backs, but like the Jets, they haven’t been particularly great against pass-catching backs.

Rashad Jennings, 55% — Had 101 yards last week, his second consecutive week of fantasy relevance. It has a lot to do with his 38 carries over the last two weeks. We have no reason to believe that will trend down going into the game against Minnesota.

Ryan Mathews, 52% — With 24 carries in the last two weeks, Mathews appears to have taken over the lead role in the committee. He finished with 58 yards on 11 carries last week but fumbled twice. He has shown flashes of superstardom in the past. He’s averaging better than five yards a carry with five touchdowns this season.

Mike Gillislee, 1% — He’s not getting enough touches to be relied on considerably, but he has long touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and he should see a bit more work if LeSean McCoy misses the game this week.

Matt Jones, 47% — After 18 carries in back-to-back weeks, Jones only rushed 10 times last week. Alfred Morris appears to have a firm grasp on the starting job. I’ll be starting Jones on a daily fantasy lineup or two against the Eagles, but he’s a risky, high-upside play in your championship game.

Alfred Morris, 52% — Rushed for 84 yards on just 14 carries, including his first rush for 10 yards or more in five games. Did you just hear that record scratch? Yep, he’s a plodder. But he could get another 10+ yard run agains the Eagles poor defense this week.

Karlos Williams, 32% — Had 41 yards on just four carries as he returns from a shoulder injury. If LeSean McCoy can’t play, he’ll be in a committee with Gillislee. Williams has 12-110-1 and 9-110-2 games this season, so I don’t think the Bills are prepared to give up on him in place of Gillislee, despite the big plays the last two weeks.

Cameron Artis-Payne, 8% — I drafted Artis-Payne in a couple keeper/dynasty leagues. Held him in a super deep league, but had to drop him in others. I like his potential. He rushed for 59 yards on 14 carries and added 34 yards on three catches. If the Panthers rest Jonathan Stewart again, Artis-Payne could be in for a big day against the Falcons, who have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Shane Vereen, 45% — Caught eight of 10 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown and added 29 yards on four carries. Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended for this week so 10 more targets aren’t out of the question for Vereen.

Donald Brown, 0% — If you weren’t worried about Melvin Gordon’s bust meter, you should be now. Brown rushed 12 times for 90 yards last week after Gordon went down. Oakland has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, so Brown may have a decent bit of value again this week.

Steven Jackson, 2%/Joey Iosefa, 0% — Iosefa went 14-51 and the Patriots brought in Steven Jackson to sure up their big-back problems. Wouldn’t it be like Belichick to pick up an old, forgotten running back with relatively fresh legs who rushes for 100 yards a couple times at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs on the way to the Super Bowl?

Jerick McKinnon, 3% — I’m surprised he’s not more owned as the backup with the most upside behind Adrian Peterson. He caught four of four targets for 76 yards and a touchdown last week. If Peterson aggravates his ankle in practice this week, McKinnon’s a must-add against the poor Giants defense. Considering how bad NYG is against the pass, we might even have to consider him as a what the heck play in daily fantasy this week.

Kendall Gaskins, 1% — What are the 49ers on now, sixth-string? Seventh? Draughn’s knee injury means there’s a new backup in the SF backfield.

Wide receivers

Devante Parker, 35% — The Colts allow 267 passing yards per game, fourth-most in the NFL. Parker has scored at least 11 points in three of the last four weeks.

Tyler Lockett, 66% — No part of the Seahawks passing attack should be overlooked at this point. Lockett gets a bonus if your league counts return touchdowns.

Jermaine Kearse, 6% — Another Seahakws receiver we can’t ignore. Kearse has seven catches on eight targets in each of the last two weeks.

Reuben Randle, 35% — Has five or more targets in all but one game since Week 2. With OBJ out, Randle should feast.

Anquan Boldin, 61% — Just when we give up on Boldin he catches eight of 10 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Tavon Austin, 62% — Austin’s speed has always been elite but he’s been able to capitalize on it offensively this season as the Rams find ways to get him the ball on carries and through the air. He’s the kind of receiver — small, fast and quick — the Seahawks have had trouble with in the past.

Cole Beasley, 8% — A new quarterback (Kellen Moore) may favor a possession receiver like Beasley, as his seven targets last week implies. Remember, Beasley had a couple weeks that made fantasy aficionados give him the Beastley moniker.

Ted Ginn Jr., 58% — Matchups don’t matter with Ginn. Here’s what you’re going to get: A dropped touchdown or two and a caught touchdown or two. He has at least 80 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last three games. Yes, he tops the regression candidate’s list, but I’m not overlooking him.

Markus Wheaton, 30% — Has 37 target, 22 catches and three touchdowns in the last three weeks. I’m not going to tell you his receiving yards because they are skewed by a 200-yard game. He has 50 yards or more in each game and that includes a 200-yarder.

Kamar Aiken, 57% — Has 102 targets, 62 catches, 802 yards and five TDs this season. In the last five weeks he has three games with at least one touchdowna and at least 80 yards receiving and he has at least five catches per game. How is he not owned in every league?

Stefon Diggs, 51% — Diggs had just four targets, but he caught three for 55 and two touchdowns. He’s got quite a bit of upside and quite a bit of risk in an offense that doesn’t throw the ball much.

Dorial Green-Beckham, 23% — Has more than 100 yards in two of the last three weeks as an emerging threat in the Tennessee offense. His performance last week bodes well for this week with Mettenberger likely back under center for the Titans.

Donte Moncrief, 55% — Has 35 targets in the last five weeks, including a one-target game. Got in the end zone last week. The big concern is how Andrew Luck’s possible return affects Moncrief’s value, but it’s worth stashing him until we know for sure.

Tight ends

Zach Ertz, 54% — Has 20 targets, 12 catches, 176 yards and a touchdown in the last two games and got into the end zone in the previous game.

Will Tye, 10% — Pssst. Hey, Tye is one of the best-kept tight end secrets in fantasy football this season. He has at least five catches in four of his last five games, has at least six targets in four of his last five and has two 70-yard games and two-touchdowns over the same stretch. With a certain star receiver likely to be suspended for the game against the Vikings — who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends — Tye could see his fair share of targets this week.

Blake Bell, 0% — Some pundits have been touting Bell, a converted quarterback, since the preseason. He saw eight targets last week as he appears to have taken over the lead TE role in SF, which was very lucrative for Vance McDonald owners a few weeks ago. Bell is a sneaky play with risk/upside for your championship game.

Zach Miller, 34% — Another solid day for Miller, who is a near-must consider if you need TE help. He’s been targeted at least six times in four of the last five weeks, has five touchdowns in the last seven weeks, has five catches in each of the last two weeks and has an 85-yard game and a 107-yard game over the last seven weeks.

Jared Cook, 4% — I hate to do this to you, but let’s talk about Jared Cook. He hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. We know he’s inconsistent and that he hasn’t been able to take advantage of good matchups in the past. However, he’s been targeted at least six times and has at least three catches in four of the last five weeks. He had a 64-yard game last week and had a 58-yard game over that four-game stretch. He faces the Seahawks, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Kickers and defenses

Ok, it’s the championship. If you want to use waiver priority on kicker or defense now — and there isn’t a single other player in the entire world (or your league) you’d rather spend you FAAB or waiver priority on — I’ll allow it. But I still don’t feel good about it.