Is Typhoon Haiyan the result of climate change?

Yeb Sano has told delegates at the UN climate change talks that Typhoon Haiyan
is the result of global warming - but meteorologists say that it is not
possible to pinpoint specific events and blame them on climate change

Philippine share prices plunged after Typhoon Haiyan, but the country still has strong growth prospectsPhoto: DONDI TAWATAO/GETTY IMAGES

The Filipino delegate at the UN Climate Change talks that began on Monday has blamed Typhoon Haiyan on climate change, and urged sceptics to “get off their ivory towers” and come to see the evidence for themselves.

But climate experts have said that Yeb Sano, who made an emotional plea for action at the beginning of the talks in Warsaw, could not say for definite that climate change caused the storm that ravaged thePhilippines.

“What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness,” said Mr Sano, whose family is from the devastated city of Tacloban. He has vowed to continue a hunger strike “until a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

Soldiers help the frail and wounded to a waiting C130 aircraft during the evacuation of Tacloban (PAULA BRONSTEIN/GETTY IMAGES)

He said: “We can fix this. We can stop this madness. Right now, right here. Science tells us that simply, climate change will mean more intense tropical storms.”

He then dared “anyone who continues to deny the reality that is climate change” to visit his homeland – and other areas seen as being on the front line of climate change.

But meteorologists maintain that it is not possible to say with certainty that specific events are caused by climate change.

The most violent storm before Typhoon Haiyan was Hurricane Camille – a hurricane is the term for the storm in the Atlantic, Caribbean and northeast Pacific, while in the northwest Pacific they are called typhoons. In the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea they are called cyclones.

Hurricane Camille formed in August 1969 in Mississippi, claiming the lives of 259 people with winds which reached speeds of 190mph.

The third biggest storm ever recorded was in 1935, when the Labor Day Hurricane hit the Florida Keys.

“The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is difficult to measure in individual cases – or even across whole seasons,” said Julian Heming, a tropical storm prediction scientist at the Met Office.

“We have to be patient to know whether the storms are caused by climate change or whether they are just usual peaks and troughs in weather patterns – and we are unlikely to have robust detectable signals before the end of this century.”

Mr Heming pointed out that 2005 was what he termed “a hyperactive season,” with more frequent and more intense storms than ever before – Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma among them.

But following that season the frequency of such storms dropped to a 30-year low.

He added that this year in the Atlantic has been exceptionally quiet – one of the quietest on record – and that in the northern hemisphere the number of storms was only 75 per cent of what you would usually expect for this time of year. The last six weeks, however, have seen a surge in activity in the west Pacific.

“We need to look at long-term climate models before we can be certain,” he said.

“But the indications are that the frequency of the storms may decrease – but their intensity will increase.”

Bob Ward, from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, agreed that it was impossible to wholly blame climate change for specific events.

“But it could have made the storms more intense,” he said. “By how much, we don’t yet know. The evidence is pretty mixed so far.

“It is safe to say, however, that the storms will decrease in number but increase in intensity. Global warming is increasing the temperature of the seas – and the warmer the seas, the rougher the storms.”

Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), said that Typhoon Haiyan served as a backdrop of “sobering reality” to the fortnight-long negotiations, which are being held in a football stadium in the Polish capital.

“We must stay focused, exert maximum effort for the full time and produce a positive result, because what happens in this stadium is not a game,” she said. “There are not two sides, but the whole of humanity. There are no winners and losers, we all either win or lose in the future we make for ourselves.”

And as Haiyan bore down, Belle Segayo, a member of the Philippine Climate Change Commission, dashed to the airport in Tacloban city to try to get back to Manila – but instead found herself trapped in the airport, unable to make the talks.

“It sounded like a pig being slaughtered,” Ms Segayo said, referring to the noise of the city being torn apart and inundated with surging seawater.