Okay, we admit this is a crazy long shot. So does Chris Tomasson of Fanhouse, who is in Istanbul and may have been in a hookah bar for all we know when he came up with it. But hear us out:

It is possible for USA Basketball not to qualify for the 2012 Olympics in London if they don’t win the FIBA World Championships, starting Saturday.

Only the winner of this World Championships gets an automatic qualifying berth in the 2012 games. It is possible the USA does not win this tournament — they have the most talent but this is a young team on a big stage in a one-and-done tournament (after the group play stage). Spain and Greece both sandbagged games against the USA in tune-ups. There’s a good chance the USA wins and qualifies, but it may not. Spain is the favorite of a lot of smart basketball people

If no gold for the USA in Turkey, it just has to be one of the top two teams in the FIBA Americas Tournament next summer to qualify (this is the same way the USA qualified for the 2008 Olympics). All the teams in North and South America competing for the Olympics spots. No problem for us, right?

Wrong, if there is a lockout. And there almost certainly will be a lockout.

Part of the deal of a lockout would be that no player under contract could take part in international competitions. While free agents could play, if you think Carmelo Anthony or anybody else who might not be under contract next summer is going to risk injury while trying to convince teams to give them millions, you must be in a hookah bar yourself.

So we will stock Team USA with college kids. And then send them up against some potentially good teams like Argentina and Brazil. Our plucky college kids likely would till finish in the top two. Maybe. But some other countries would have their players from Europe back, so one could dream of a scenario where the USA finishes behind a couple teams and does not make the finals.

Now, if Team USA finishes in the top four or five — and it’s nearly impossible to picture them finishing lower than that — they get invited to the pre-Olympics tournament in London. They had one of these in Beijing (the USA was not part, having already qualified), where a couple Olympics spots were left open for teams to play their way in right before the games.

For that, you’d expect we’d have our NBA players back and the Kobe/Wade/LeBron/Durant posse would just destroy everyone in their path and qualify. So we’d be in, and be favorites.

But it would be a whole lot simpler if the USA would just win the World Championships.

Very interesting article.
I’m from Argentina, and we’re suffering this lockout ourselves: just today Andrés “el Chapu” Nocioni found out he could not play this championship, because of an injury that made Philadelphia Sixers go mad. For not to mention the case of Manu Ginobili, who had to decide between this World Championship and the 2012 Olympics.
But you’re forgeting about one last possibility: that another american (and by america, I mean the whole continent) team wins the world championship. If that occures, then next year there will be one more place for the Olympics.
What do you think? Could we argentineans have a chance? Canada? Puerto Rico? Brazil?

Very interesting article.
I’m from Argentina, and we’re suffering this lockout ourselves: just today Andrés “el Chapu” Nocioni found out he could not play this championship, because of an injury that made Philadelphia Sixers go mad. For not to mention the case of Manu Ginobili, who had to decide between this World Championship and the 2012 Olympics.
But you’re forgeting about one last possibility: that another american (and by america, I mean the whole continent) team wins the world championship. If that occures, then next year there will be one more place for the Olympics.
What do you think? Could we argentineans have a chance? Canada? Puerto Rico? Brazil?

you know something, this might sounds funny but I think this year we have to keep our eyes in Puerto Rico. I been watching those guys and they have a versatile style of playing, either 1on1 or zone. And this years they feature NBA and ex-NBA’s like Nathan Peavy and Renaldo Balkman, Carlos Arroyo, JJ Barea, other of the guys like Carmelo Lee and Peter Tamos are playing good.

Fanhouse writer is wrong. The Americas might have more than 2 teams in London. In Athens, there were 3 (ARG, USA, PUR). In ’96, USA had host but 3 others from Americas qualified. It all depends on success of teams from the region in world championship.

Fanhouse writer is wrong. The Americas might have more than 2 teams in London. In Athens, there were 3 (ARG, USA, PUR). In ’96, USA had host but 3 others from Americas qualified. It all depends on success of teams from the region in world championship.

I think you’re right. As an argentinean, I am a big fan of my NT, but we’ve played Pto Rico twice in the previous, and even we were at home, it was difficult for us to win (acctually, we los one of those games).
So yeah, Pto Rico has a very good team. I do not like how Canada plays, and i think Brazil has a lot of team issues, and will be difficult for them to go past the 8ths finals…