S.E. Cupp: Why, Mike Pence? Why?

By S.E. Cupp

Updated 7:16 PM ET, Thu July 14, 2016

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has indicated to Indiana Gov. Mike Pence that he is moving toward choosing the Indiana governor as his vice presidential nominee, a source familiar with the process tells CNN. In this image, Pence announces that the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services had approved the State's waiver request for the plan his administration called HIP 2.0 during a speech in Indianapolis on January 27, 2015.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence, then the Republican candidate for Indiana's 2nd Congressional District, is surrounded by his wife, Karen, right, and family as he addresses supporters on November 7, 2000, in Columbus, Indiana. Pence defeated Democrat Robert Rock in the race to fill the seat vacated by David McIntosh, who held the position from 1995-2001.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence and Republican Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake talk on July 10, 2002, during the markup of the bill which would establish the Department of Homeland Security.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence, Reps. Carolyn B. Maloney, D-New York, and Christopher Shays, R-Connecticut, walk with a bipartisan group of members during a news conference on July 22, 2004, about the release of the 9/11 Commission report.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

From left, Reps. Ted Poe (R-Texas), Pence, Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Flake attend a news conference on September 21, 2005, to call for budget offsets to pay for the Hurricane Katrina relief and reconstruction effort. Copies of the budget were displayed with sections earmarked. Members of FreedomWorks, a conservative and libertarian advocacy group, were also on hand to call on cuts for wasteful pork-barrel projects, along with many members of the House Republican Study Committee.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence speaks at a news conference on September 5, 2008, in Washington. Pence and other House Republicans called on then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to schedule a vote on energy legislation to help lower gasoline prices.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Former Speaker of the House John Boehner hands a copy of the stimulus bill to Pence after the House of Representatives voted to pass it on February 13, 2009. The bill passed the House along a strict party vote of 246-183.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence is joined by his wife, Karen, as he carries his ballot petition signatures to run for governor of Indiana into the Secretary of State's Election Division in Indianapolis on February 6, 2012.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

The three candidates for Indiana governor, Democrat John Gregg, left, Pence and Libertarian Rupert Boneham, gather after a debate in South Bend, Indiana, on October 17, 2012.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence is sworn in as Indiana's 50th governor by Chief Justin Brent E. Dickson as Pence's wife, Karen, and his family look on during a ceremony at the statehouse on January 14, 2013.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence checks off a milestone on May 29, 2013, for a new Ohio River bridge that will connect Indiana to Kentucky, just east of Louisville. At the time, Pence said the new bridge, which is expected to open in 2016 between Utica, Indiana, and Prospect, Kentucky, would create jobs and economic opportunities in the area.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence speaks during a memorial service for former Indiana Rep. Andrew Jacobs Jr. at the statehouse on January 3, 2014. Jacobs died on December 28, 2013, at age 81.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence speaks during the leadership forum at the National Rifle Association's annual convention on April 25, 2014, in Indianapolis.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence is sworn in during the House Education and the Workforce Committee hearing on the "State of American Schools and Workplaces: Expanding Opportunity in America's Schools and Workplaces" on February 4, 2015.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence formally announces his re-election campaign in Indianapolis on June 18, 2015. The Indiana native, whose status as a national star among conservatives was battered by an outcry over the state's new religious objections law at the time, launched a re-election campaign focused on the state's economy and improving schools.

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Photos:Mike Pence's political life and career

Pence delivers his State of the State address to a joint session of the legislature at the statehouse on January 12, 2016.

Story highlights

S.E. Cupp: At one time I thought Mike Pence was future of GOP; then he OKd Indiana's religious freedom act

Cupp: As Trump's running mate, two possible fates await: wither in irrelevance in White House or spectacular loss against unpopular Clinton

S.E. Cupp is the author of "Losing Our Religion: The Liberal Media's Attack on Christianity," co-author of "Why You're Wrong About the Right" and a columnist at the New York Daily News. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN)I've long admired Mike Pence and have written approvingly of his tenure in the House, his job as Indiana governor and his presidential ambitions for years. A few years ago, I interviewed him for a magazine cover story, and again while working at MSNBC. At one time I thought he was the future of the Republican Party.

The problem wasn't that the law -- which allowed a business owner to raise religion as a defense when an anti-discrimination lawsuit is presented -- was so odious, despite Hillary Clinton, Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Miley Cyrus' contention that it was.

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Religious freedom laws were already on the books in liberal states like Rhode Island and Connecticut, and a federal RFRA was passed and voted for by Rep. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Edward Kennedy, and signed into law by President Bill Clinton.

The problem with the Indiana law was that because it was so poorly worded, delivered, and then reworked, it pleased exactly no one. Liberals cried intolerance. Social conservatives said Pence caved by altering it. Others still, including me, argued that ceding more authority to the government to police discrimination in the private sector will not end discrimination.

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The other problem? Mike Pence was openly thinking about running for president. The predictable foes pounced, and Pence saw his approval rating fall from 62% to 47%.

Or, he will crash in spectacular fashion as he is forced to defend Trump's impolitic ideas and undignified rhetoric on the campaign trail, only to lose to one of the most damaged and disliked opponents in the history of presidential elections.

Why, Mike, why?

Pence has described himself as "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican -- in that order."

He once guided me around the Indiana governor's office to point out all his favorite art and memorabilia. Portraits of Herman Hudson, who founded the African-American studies department at Indiana University, and William Henry Harrison. A painting he said was displayed at President Lincoln's funeral. A red telephone on his desk that his wife, Karen, gave him for Christmas -- to which only she has the number.

He told me of an encounter with President Reagan when Pence was only 29, in which he praised Reagan and made him blush. Pence gushed about Reagan's humility.

He was one of few Republicans to draw a distinction between the failures of negative campaigning in the 2012 presidential election and the success of positive campaigning in local elections. "I'm someone who really believes that one of the reasons for our success in a difficult election year here in Indiana was we spent all the resources in our campaign articulating a positive vision for an even better Indiana. We spoke aspirationally."

To wit: "I'm a conservative, but I'm not in a bad mood about it," he told me in 2013. "I understand politics is about addition and not subtraction."

So why would an otherwise serious, positive and thoroughly conservative governor take on such an execrable assignment?

Conservative radio host Steve Deace essentially makes the argument that Pence has lost so much allure, it's his only chance at a bigger platform.

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"Ten years ago," he says, "Mike Pence would have never done this. Five years ago. But because his stock with conservatives is so low right now, this may be his only chance to be a national figure."

How this will endear Pence to conservatives -- many of whom loathe Trump -- is unclear. And Pence never struck me as a man driven by celebrity. If he were he could have joined the Trump train months ago and been one of his most visible and credible supporters. Instead, he quietly endorsed Ted Cruz.

He must, therefore, believe he can genuinely help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton, and that achieving this singular goal vitiates all Trump's inexpiable sins.

But can he? I was asked recently if Trump picked someone serious for vice president -- like Mike Pence -- would that make me decide to vote for him. Which is like asking if I'd marry an a**hole just because his older brother seemed nice. People vote for the top of the ticket.

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And two, if a voter is concerned about Trump's inexperience and temperament, will Mike Pence quell their anxieties? Would anyone?

The problem for Trump's campaign is that it is in such a weak position, it has to make an Experience pick. Mike Pence is designed to persuade Republican voters it's safe to vote for him.

If Trump were better positioned, he could choose a New Voter pick, someone who could help reach undecideds in the middle and on the left, women, minorities and millennials. But Trump is still stuck working on his own constituents. Not a great place to be.

I still admire Mike Pence, and wish him well. I suppose there's a third outcome for his political career -- Trump and Pence Make America Great Again! -- and in 2024, Pence becomes the 46th president of the United States.