Zack Greinke To Miss Start Of Season – Top 30 SP Fallout

According to Ken Rosenthal via Twitter, “MRI on Greinke revealed one bruised rib and one hairline fracture. Bone will take 4 to 6 weeks to heal”.

Mlb.com has also posted an article (click here to view), clarifying things a little bit:

“Greinke, the team’s biggest offseason addition and likely Opening Day starter, had made two Cactus League starts with sore ribs before undergoing an MRI scan on Monday that revealed a minor fracture of his seventh rib and a bone bruise on his eighth rib. The normal recovery time is four to six weeks from the time of injury, Brewers head physician William Raasch said, meaning Greinke is already about two weeks into the healing process.”

That puts him out for about another 2-4 weeks. When you work in time on the mound (since he will miss the remainder of Spring Training) to get into game shape, it would appear that he is going to miss anywhere from the first two to four weeks of the season.

It’s a huge hit to his potential value, there’s no question about that, but it doesn’t mean that he should be ignored completely on draft day. With the move to the NL he still has the potential to post gaudy numbers when he does take the mound. The problem is, we don’t know exactly how long he is going to be out, and the uncertainty just further hurts his perceived value on draft day. For now I have to assume the worst, meaning his projected innings drops to around 180. Hopefully he’s able to return sooner, however.

Let’s take a look at how far he drops in the rankings (these will again be re-evaluated as more information becomes available):

Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox

CC Sabathia – New York Yankees

Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies

Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers

Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels

Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers

Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies

Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins

Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins

Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals

Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

Clay Buccholz – Boston Red Sox

Mat Latos – San Diego Padres

Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves

Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels

Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers

Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers

David Price – Tampa Bay Rays

Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins

Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics

Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants

Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers

Matt Garza – Chicago Cubs

Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox

Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

What are your thoughts on the rankings? Who’s too high? Who’s too low?

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Not a bad deal, as long as you believe Alvarez is going to develop into one of the elite 3B in the league. Otherwise, injuries or not, you are giving up a Top 40 player without getting a sure thing (as well as leaving yourself questionable in the middle infield).

I love Alvarez, long-term, so I could see the thinking behind the deal. Just be sure you feel that strongly about him before pulling the trigger. In a league where you keep people indefinitely, getting someone as talented as Kinsler is not easy to do. I’d want to make sure I was getting the same type of talent in return.

I like the rankings. Why so low for Matt Cain though? I know he has some arm problems going into the year but he’s been as durable as anyone. And why so high for Josh Beckett? He was beyond terrible last season and while I expect him to bounce back I’m not sure he can get into the top 30.

In regards to Beckett, there was a lot of bad luck last year (.349 BABIP, 65.3% strand rate). Improved luck will certainly go a long ways.

For Cain, there was some luck at play and I wouldn’t expect him to post a WHIP of around 1.08 again. I actually have him projected for a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, so I really do like him. I just happen to like some other guys a little bit more.