Romney’s path to victory

Today Time’s Mark Halperin reported on a potential electoral map scenario that’s giving some Democrats anxiety. Halperin writes that a senior Democratic official “expressed real concern” about Ohio “slipping away from Obama.” If Governor Romney wins Ohio, as well as the three southern swing states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, he could reach 266 electoral votes and be just one state away from victory.

What a difference three weeks makes. On September 26th, Nate Silver wrote ”Could 2012 Be Like 2008?” in an article that suggested a possible Obama rout of Governor Romney. At that point, Silver gave President Obama an 83.9% chance of winning, and that would climb as high as 87.1% on October 4th. That probability plummeted once polling that included the first presidential debate was released. President Obama currently holds a 66% chance of re-election, according to Silver. No longer is the talk about a 2008-like sweep. Instead, it’s more like, ‘will the President just squeak by?’