Posts Tagged ‘Kerry’

It’s time to just say it. The obsession of Barack Obama and John Kerry with forcing along a discredited and unproductive “peace process” involving the Palestinian Arabs and Israel is weird – even creepy.

Notice I didn’t say “peace process between the Palestinian Arabs and Israel.” There’s nothing “between” about it. At this point, the Obama-Kerry show seems to involve the Palestinian Arabs and Israel only tangentially. All the action is in Washington, D.C., and it’s all one-sided.

When we left our drama last week, Mahmoud Abbas had just delivered “three ‘no’s’” to the White House on this freighted topic: no recognition of Israel as a Jewish state; no relinquishment of a so-called “right of return”; and no commitment to honoring a pact with Israel as an “end of conflict” between the two.

There’s nothing for Israel in this deal, in other words. Abbas won’t sign up to anything that would make Israeli commitments or concessions worthwhile. He’s very explicit about that. His ruling cabal in the West Bank in fact organized rent-a-crowds for a show of public support for his position, in advance of his visit to Washington – and was primed to run a victory lap celebrating his intransigence immediately afterward. Abbas couldn’t be more categorical about his refusal to engage with John Kerry’s negotiating framework; not if he spelled it out in six-foot neon letters.

As Jonathan Tobin points out, however, Israel has agreed to Kerry’s proposed framework for talks going forward, although with reservations. It’s Abbas who won’t come to the table. He won’t agree to even talk about finding common ground.

Seems like we’ve been here before, of course. But there are reasons for the current impasse, beyond the Palestinian Arabs’ longstanding pattern of refusals. The Quartet-brokered, Oslo-based peace process is a dead letter, and I think everyone outside Washington and Brussels can sense that. Oslo was born out of a moment that has passed: a moment of unchallenged American supremacy and the illusion of unforced global stasis. That moment is gone. The rise of a more territorial, geographically oriented Islamism, coupled with the Arab Spring, and now Putin’s invasion of Crimea, have demonstrated that too much of our current reality has changed.

It would be foolish of Abbas to make commitments at this point; foolish of Arabs throughout the region, and Islamists of all stripes. Too many opportunities are now possible. The last thing anyone wants to do is make commitments that will leave him out of position to profit from the coming instability.

Multinational observers or peacekeeping forces may be highly exploitable, as they have been in southern Lebanon, but their utility depends on an excruciatingly slow, indirect approach to undermining Israel. They could be a serious inconvenience for a quicker-acting approach, if such multinational forces took up a position – through some agreement along the lines of the Kerry proposal – in the Jordan Valley.

Abbas has excellent strategic reasons to reject the idea of a U.S.-brokered multinational force in the Jordan Valley. So do his various patrons. Now isn’t the time to commit to deals. Not with the status quo about to bust wide open.

The Obama administration hasn’t realized it’s 2014, largely because its members haven’t even realized it’s no longer 1968. That’s another story, but it’s central to the failing dynamic of the Middle East peace process. The context in which the Oslo framework was the best or only option is simply gone.

Under these emerging conditions, Israel’s continued cooperation has a twofold purpose, I believe: first, to show good faith in general – a willingness to negotiate to settle the Palestinian problem – and second, to maintain her good relations with the United States.

Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon has written an unprecedented letter to PM Netanyahu, threatening to quit the government if more terrorists are released in the planned “4th round” set to take place on March 28, 2014.

Below is Danon’s letter, followed by a translation, and the list of terrorists set to be released.

To Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

The government of Israel has agreed to release terrorists who have brutally murdered the sons and daughters of our state in order to advance negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. I, as you recall, have been among those that have expressed opposition to these steps. Those who have been supporting the release of terrorists claimed that this is a worthwhile price to pay for the hope of advancing peace with the Palestinians. Meantime, its become clear, as expected, the Palestinians took advantage, and not for the first time, our desire for peace and naiveté, to fool us. They pretended to negotiate and we released abominable terrorists.

But now this has reach a new peak: senior officials in the Palestinian Authority are openly admitting that this is a con job for the sole purpose of releasing prisoners, and the Palestinians have absolutely no desire to advance the peace process. More so – the president of the Palestinian Authority himself is not prepared to affirm that he will recognize the State of Israel as a Jewish state. Therefore, I expect from the government of Israel to tell the Palestinians and the whole world, “no more” and immediately announce that the release of terrorists stops this instant.

I have made a decision: I will not be part of the executive branch – the government – if it approves and carries through with the release of additional prisoners as part of the “4th round” that is supposed to take place on the 28th of this month. On the day the first terrorist is released from jail to freedom – I will present my resignation letter as Deputy Minister of Defense in the State of Israel.

I believe that you are aware of the difficult feelings of the public on this matter, and the significance that the release of terrorist-murderers will have on the strength of the State of Israel.

Danny Danon Deputy Minister of Defense

The following is the proposed list of terrorists, originally published by YNET, that are likely to be released in the upcoming round of terrorist releases on March 28, and their victim:

According to information acquired by Makor Rishon from sources connected to the Kerry-led “peace negotiations,” Israel is set to uproot Jews if an agreement is signed.

The source claims that settlements in Judea and Samaria will be divided into three types: those that will remain under Israeli sovereignty; those who will be place under Palestinian Authority rule under a special arrangement; and those that will be uprooted.

The source claims there are still big gaps between the positions on both sides, and Netanyahu is against uprooting Jews, which is why the prime minister working to minimize the number of Jews that would be expelled under any agreement. Nevertheless, should an agreement be signed, a few thousands Jews will certainly be forcibly expelled from their Judea and Samaria homes.

The Prime Minister’s office responded to the report saying it was a lie, and that the Prime Minister has no intention of uprooting any Israeli or any Jewish town.

On Wednesday this week, US Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters “his” Middle East peace deal will not be achieved by the April deadline. And at least one high level Palestinian official has told AFP a week ago that Kerry’s ideas could not be the basis of any acceptable framework. And so, it’s possible the Makor Rishon story was a plant from a right wing source, to fan the flames of resistance to a deal in Israel.

Back in 2005, Netanyahu voted with the Sharon government to deport some 10,000 Jews from their Gaza and northern Samarian homes.

The man who brought peace to Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya and Syria (did I forget anything? Yes – Turkey!), our own President Obama, is about to throw his weight into the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the NY Times reports this morning.

When he welcomes Netanyahu to the White House on Monday, tye White House leaked to the Times, Obama will press him to embrace the Secretary of State John Kerry framework for a “conclusive round of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations,” which is being drafted as we speak. Then, a few weeks later, Obama will meet with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, “to make the same pitch.”

By the end of April, if all goes according to plan, both sides will have a road map (didn’t we already have one of those?). In April the self-imposed 9-month time limit will expire, and in a television-driven political world, a date is a date, ergo the big gun.

“Now is a very timely opportunity for him to get involved,” a senior official told the Times, setting up the newest great expectation in a tone that didn’t convey much conviction: If the two sides agree to the framework, which would set out general terms on issues like Israel’s security and the borders of a future Palestinian state, the negotiations could be extended, with a new target of completing a treaty by the end of 2014.

Of course, should things not work out as expected, we could always come up with new shticks, rename the whole thing, possibly divide the topics of discussion into columns A and B and pick targets Chinese restaurant fashion, slap a new target date on it and go on with the show. The idea is to keep having a peace process—never mind the peace.

If they keep doing this through the 2016 presidential election, there’s a good chance Kerry could still get the Nobel Peace Prize even if he doesn’t get anything accomplished peacewise. After all, Obama got it just for being black and promising – couldn’t Kerry take one for being tall and lanky? Good teeth? No?

It is far from clear, notes the Times, that Mr. Obama can pull off what has so far eluded his secretary of state. Here’s another thing that’s been eluding the Americans – over the past several weeks, the Arabs and the Jews haven’t been meeting face to face. They talk to Kerry and to his special envoy, Martin S. Indyk, and that’s it. It means, “analysts say,” that there’s been no movement on anything.

If you ever sold cars for a living, or watched any sitcom or movie about selling cars, you know that the time to bring in the owner is after it’s been established that the customer really wants the car, he just needs to discuss terms. You bring in the boss, right away he knocks of two grand off the list price, everybody’s smiling – and you close. But to bring the boss in before both sides are buying anything, anything at all, that has desperation written all over it.

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who is a senior fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told the Times that bringing the president in at this stage is admission of defeat on Kerry’s part. “What is it going to take to get to a comprehensive deal if the president has to do heavy lifting?”

It means Kerry has little credibility left with either side. And the Jews hate him for the boycott threats, which he has since been backtracking from so fiercely, you worry he’d hit his head on the end of the pool.

Is Secretary of State, John Kerry correct, or incorrect, when exhorting “the demographic time bomb” to scare Israel into a retreat from geography (Judea and Samaria), in order to, supposedly, secure demography? According to Kerry, “There is an existential threat to Israel…. I am referring to the demographic dynamic that makes it impossible for Israel to preserve its future as a democratic, Jewish state without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a two-state solution.”

Are Jews doomed to become a minority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and the pre-1967 Israel?

According to the 2013 CIA World Factbook, Judea and Samaria Arabs experienced a dramatic decline in fertility rate (the average number of births per woman): from five births in 2000 to 2.91 in 2013. On the other hand, in 2014, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics documents a 3.04 Jewishfertility rate and 3.42 when both Jewish spouses are Israeli-born.

“A new Palestinian generation opts for fewer children” is the title of an article by Rasha Abou Jalal, a Gaza journalist: “While Islam calls for believers to bear many children and prohibits the use of birth control, new Palestinian generations are defying tradition and leaning toward limiting the number of children they have…. The new generation takes into consideration various economic and cultural factors before deciding to have children. The idea of limiting childbearing has, therefore, garnered more supporters than before…. The more Palestinians become aware and rational, the less they will procreate, as they pursue a level of education and knowledge that suits them and increases their chances of having a better life….

The Westernization of Muslim demographic trends, from Iran (1.8 births per woman), through Saudi Arabia (2.3), Syria and Egypt (2.9) and North Africa (1.8) has also characterized Muslim women in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and pre-1967 Israel. The unprecedented decline in Muslim fertility has been driven by modernity: accelerated women’s rights, urbanization, education, career mentality and family planning (72% of 15-49 year old married Palestinian women prefer to avoid pregnancy). Thus, contemporary young Muslim women are reluctant to get married at the age of fifteen and start reproducing at the age of sixteen. They tend to postpone marriage until after the age of 20 and prefer limited reproduction.

On the other hand, in 2014, the Israeli Jewish fertility rate (three births per woman and trending upwards) is higher than in any Arab country, other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan. Jewish demography has been enhanced by a high level of optimism, patriotism, communal responsibility and attachment to roots among religious and secular, hawks and doves, conservative and liberal Israelis, bolstered by economic progress. While the annual number of Arab births – west of the Jordan River – has stabilized since 1995, the annual number of Jewish births has surged from 80,000 in 1995 to about 132,000 in 2013 – a 65% increase! This dramatic leap occurred despite declining fertility among ultra-orthodox Jews, but due to the substantial rise of secular Jewish fertility. In 1995 there were 2.3 Jewish births per one Arab birth in Israel; in 2014 – 3.3 births. In 1995, the number of Jewish births constituted 69% of total Israeli births; in 2014 – 77% and rising.

In 2014, there is a robust 66% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel – compared with a 9% and 39% in 1900 and 1947 – benefitting from a tailwind of fertility and net-immigration. This contrasts with declining Arab fertility and annual Arab net-emigration (in 2014, 20,000 from Judea and Samaria). In 2014, Israel’s Jewish population has reached 6.5 million people, next to 1.7 million Israeli Arabs and 1.7 million Judean and Samarian Arabs – one million less than the number claimed by the Palestinian Authority. The misrepresentation was conceived in the late 1990s, in response to the arrival of one million Soviet Jews to Israel. It consists of overseas residents, overseas births, by double-counting Jerusalem Arabs as Israeli Arabs (by Israel) and West Bankers (by the Palestinian Authority), etc..

“Netanyahu has made clear that he is ready to undertake an historic move, but he wants to spread it over a long period of time, and to avoid mass evacuations of settlers during his rule,” an American source close to the peace negotiations told Walla. The source added that the prime minister has been making statements to this effect during his recent meetings with U.S. secretary of State John Kerry, and in his conversations last year with President Obama.

“He made clear to Obama as well as Kerry that he is ready to ‘go for it,’ but insisted that the execution, especially the aspect of settlement evacuations, must be gradual and lengthy – and not over 3 to 5 years, as the Palestinians demand,” the American source explained.

According to that source, “Netanyahu definitely understands that Israel must go for the agreement, but he doesn’t want to be the one who would in effect deport tens of thousands of settlers from the West bank. As far as he’s concerned, the best scenario would be a gradual agreement, with the final application taking place only on the watch of the next prime minister.”

Two weeks ago, U.S. ambassador to israel dan Shapiro said that during his most recent hops between Jerusalem and Ramallah, Kerry “heard from Netanyahu and Abu mazen (Abbas) things no one had heard from them in the past.”

Shapiro would not go into details, but the American source told Walla that “what Kerry heard from Netanyahu is a willingness on his part to agree on an historic compromise – while insisting on a gradual and lengthy application.”

The same source added that “this demand also holds true regarding settler deportations and the Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley.”

The source did not go into detail on how the Palestinians had reacted to Netanyahu’s new position, but noted that “there are gaps regarding the schedule.”

All of the above could explain Kerry’s near-euphoric behavior over the past few weeks, despite the string of reports on difficulties and wide gaps in the negotiations. In that context, Walla quotes an Israeli politician who had spoken to the Israeli negotiation staff, who said “the Americans feel that Netanyahu is near his point of ‘crossing the Rubicon,’ which is why they’re not upset about his right-wing sounding statements in the Knesset Likud faction meetings. They believe he must appease the right wing in his own party, but says the truly important things in his meetings with Kerry, especially when the two of them are alone.”

Meanwhile, the Kerry mission in Jerusalem has been hectically meeting with opposition parties on the left and in the Haredi camp, in preparation for a Jewish Home walkout following an “historic” statement from the prime minister.

Which is why Jewish Home must never leave the coalition government, regardless of the upcoming deal. They should hold on to their positions of power, vote against the catastrophic deal, and use their official capacity to defend and protect the settler community. Outside the government they may sound righteous and patriotic, but their worth to the people about to become refugees in their own land would be negligible.

Tough times are coming. Our communities must come together and figure out short and long term ways of evading deportation. Collect food, store water, purchase electric generators, stock up on fuel. Get as much of our resources off the grid as we can, because when they come for us – the grid will be the first thing they’ll turn off.