Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006
INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
2346Z TRMM AND 0106Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
WAS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO
SHEAR. SINCE THEN...CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...30 KT
TAFB...35 KT SAB...ALONG WITH THE POOR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. DUE TO SHEAR AND THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM
IS DIMINISHING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN
MEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS...
THE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP
COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.
REGARDLESS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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