Scott Walker’s stealth 2016 strategy

MADISON, Wis. — He can’t use the Senate soapbox to rack up media hits and political points, like Rand Paul or Marco Rubio. He isn’t poised to run up the score in his reelection campaign as a show of strength heading into 2016, as Chris Christie intends to do this November in New Jersey.

But Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s game plan for the next three years is quietly taking shape: Win reelection next year in this purple state without moderating a record that has won many hearts in the conservative base; let the other GOP hopefuls get sullied by the mud pit of Congress and each other; then pounce in 2015.

Scott Walker's 2016 strategy

Operating in the shadows of the emerging GOP presidential field, Walker has been laying the groundwork for a 2016 campaign. His bid would aim to capitalize on his record as a committed social conservative who has taken on Democratic interests repeatedly in a Midwestern battleground state — and won.

You probably won’t catch him on the Sunday talk shows holding forth on immigration reform or facing off with senators over federal surveillance policy. But that suits Walker fine. He’d rather take care of business in Wisconsin and travel quietly to early voting states, raising money and building chits for a national bid.

But the first order of business for Walker is winning his third election in four years here — against a wealthy potential Democratic opponent who could spend millions of her fortune — without watering down his conservative bona fides. A Republican governor facing reelection in a 50-50 state like Wisconsin might be prone to try and make nice with Democrats, but Walker, who beat back a union-led recall attempt against him last year, isn’t going there.

And while most independent analysts expect Walker to ultimately prevail, winning with 55 percent is probably his best-case scenario in a state that’s among the most polarized in the country. Independent analysts agree he’s likely to win, but the left vows, at the very least, to make the 45-year-old governor pay a political price.

“Gov. Walker is as well positioned as an incumbent governor in Wisconsin could be, considering the political climate, [but] he won’t have a cakewalk for a reelection,” said Wisconsin GOP strategist Mark Graul. “The governor and his team will be focused on making sure this goes well. Nothing else will matter because nothing else can happen if this race doesn’t go well.”

The strongest potential Democratic candidates, including former Sen. Russ Feingold and Rep. Ron Kind, passed on challenging Walker. Walker, who raised $3.5 million in the first half of the year, looks likely to face Madison school board member Mary Burke, a former state commerce secretary whose family owns Trek Bicycle.

“It’s because nobody wants to walk to the slaughterhouse,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, who led the state party when Walker won in 2010. “The Democrats are suffering from overplaying their hand on this recall. They promised their base and the Democratic Party the world. They delivered a dud.”

But Democrats say this won’t be anything resembling a coronation. Party leaders plan to attack what they deem to be Walker’s failure to meet his promises to bolster the state economy and his thinly veiled ambition for higher office.

Walker won by 7 percentage points in last June’s recall election. President Barack Obama then carried the Badger State in November by the same 53 percent to 46 percent margin, even with favorite son Paul Ryan on the ticket.

But despite that challenging playing field for Republicans, Walker turned down federal money to expand Medicaid, signed a bill requiring ultrasounds before abortions, expanded a voucher program over howls of protest from the teachers union and just signed a budget that cuts taxes by $651 million over the next two years.

When it comes to weighing in on national issues, meanwhile, the career-long state and local politician is picking his spots carefully, letting his Washington, D.C., counterparts take divisive stands.

Take health care. Walker co-authored an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal in late July calling for “complete repeal” of Obamacare. Then at the national governor’s meeting he hosted this month in Milwaukee, he ducked a question about whether he agrees with conservatives threatening to shut down the federal government in order to defund the law.

“Right now, I’ve got my hands full being governor,” he told a group of reporters. “I’m not real involved yet.”

The word “yet” lingered in the air.

“Strike that last word,” Walker interjected. “I’m not involved at the federal level,” he continued, “so I’ll let them work that out for right now.”

He also steered clear of the spat between Christie and Paul over domestic surveillance last month. And he has repeatedly declined to say how he would have voted on the Senate immigration bill, which has caused Rubio so much heartburn.

“Well I haven’t taken a position at all, because I wasn’t elected to Congress,” Walker said during a July Aspen Institute panel discussion in Colorado.

At the same time, Walker, who declined to be interviewed for this story, is making sure he’s not forgotten on the national stage. During a trip to New York this week, he appeared on Fox News, MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and CNBC, staying relentlessly on message. He complained about the botched implementation of Obamacare, talked up the good work being done by Republicans outside D.C. and said “it’s too early” to think about 2016.

Walker has become more circumspect lately about 2016 than he was earlier this year, invariably joking that the media speculates about it so much that he doesn’t need to or quipping that he wants to be president … of the Harley-Davidson Motor Company.

“He’s going to be a real power to reckon with in the Republican Party, and he’s smart to focus on Wisconsin and what he’s doing as governor,” said Republican Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad.