In the fourth quarter of a one point loss to Ohio State, the ball bounced right to Kurtis Drummond of the Spartans, who began running down the right sideline before the play was blown dead and Miller was ruled down. The call was later reversed.AP Photo

When Michigan State football went 11-2 in 2010, countless analysts claimed luck had played a major role in their Big Ten Championship season. Little Giants was seen as pixie dust.

Leading up to the 2011 season, many expected the Spartans to drop off, having used up their entire allotment of pixie dust the previous year.

But 2011 brought the Rocket play against Wisconsin and another 11 win season - including a 33-30 win over the SEC's Georgia in the Outback Bowl.

"For the most part, the outcome of a game is a good indicator of which team was better on that day," Fremeau writes. "But some games are impacted by good and bad fortune more than others. Some teams have an inordinately strong or weak record in one-possession games. Some teams benefit from turnovers, field position and special teams more than others."

With one-possession games factoring into the Football Outsiders statistics, Michigan State stole the show. The Spartans (6-6) lost all five conference games by a total of 13 points. Take back one missed field goal, one missed assignment (one erroneous penalty, one fumble recovery blown dead), and things could have turned out much differently for a team that was expected to compete for a Big Ten title before the season began.

"The Spartans faithful may have been slightly spoiled by back-to-back double-digit winning seasons in 2010 and 2011, and a step backward in 2012 was to be expected after heavy personnel losses in key positions. But no fan base could have prepared itself for dealing with so many games slipping right through their fingers."

And no fan base will take much comfort in having those losses explained in statistical luck. After all, stats are for losers. But Fremeau asserts that the Spartan fan base can take solice in one thing: The unluckiest teams in one season, tend to be first in line for next season's good graces.

"Is it luck? Not necessarily, but these can be indicators that a change of fortune is in store for next season," he writes. "The Big Ten Legends division is well within reach next year if the Spartans can find even a little bit more production on offense."

And as they say in East Lansing, it's a game of inches.

"(Kevin) Muma kicks off in Spartan Stadium last year, it hits on the 20, one yard inbounds, and the ball just runs right down the sidelines, stays inbounds, we tackle him inside the 15," Dantonio said back in November, when the collection of bad luck finally seemed large enough to acknowledge. "Chances are that ball bounces out this year. But it's just the nature sometimes how things are falling, too.

"I think you make your own breaks. I think when you're enthusiastic and playing well and things start happening, things continue to happen. I don't know why or how. I'd prefer to call it 'biorhythms', okay? You can call it 'fate'."

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

Game Efficiency (GE) is the composite possession-by-possession efficiency of a team over the course of a game, a measurement of the success of its offensive, defensive, and special teams units’ essential goals: to maximize the team’s own scoring opportunities and to minimize those of its opponent. FEI ratings take the season-long GE data and adjust for opponent, placing special emphasis on quality performance against good teams, win or lose.

That same data is used over the course of the season to project weekly outcomes in college football. For Spartan fans hoping Michigan State's game against TCU in the Buffalo Wild Wings bowl will be easier on their heart than the nail-biters of the regular season, you're also out of luck, the FEI is projecting a one point game in Tempe. The good news for you is, they're projecting Michigan State to win, 18-17.