By the end of training camp even the nonprofessional eye could see that rookie Jerron McMillian was a more talented safety than M.D. Jennings. Same for rookie Casey Hayward over Jarrett Bush at cornerback.

Yet, in their regular-season opener, the Green Bay Packers played Jennings as their nickel and dime safety instead of McMillian, and played Bush as their dime (and starting) cornerback ahead of Hayward.

The Packers lost that game, 30-22, to the San Francisco 49ers. With how much their defense has improved the last two weeks, after McMillian and Hayward moved into those roles, they might have helped change that result. But the outcome of that one game is the lesser point.

The larger point is, when it comes to replacing players in the NFL, it doesn't pay to play it safe. And when the Packers decided to play Jennings and Bush ahead of McMillian and Hayward, they played it safe, just as they did a year ago with Donald Driver and Randall Cobb.

That's the way it's been for as long as there have been professional sports. Coaches generally prefer erring on the side of playing a veteran ahead of a more talented rookie. It's human nature. They're more comfortable with the guy who's done it before than with the more gifted guy who hasn't.

Defensive coordinator Dom Capers went with Jennings in the opener because the second-year pro had taken almost all the snaps with the No. 1 nickel and dime defenses in offseason and training camp practices. He went with Bush because the veteran was in his fourth season in Capers' defense and had improved as a cover man the past couple years.

Capers was like most coaches - reluctant to cast aside that kind of experience for the more talented but less knowledgeable player.

"(A coach) might be far more aware of the errors than (an outsider) not in tune with exactly what (the player) is being asked to do," Capers said Friday. "If you sit in that meeting room and look at that practice tape every day, you base your judgment off what you see. We're obviously going to put the guys out there that give us the best chance to win. Then there comes a point if you have two guys competing and one guy has a little more physical talent, then you have to try to bring that along and develop it."

The opener changed Capers' mind.

Jennings blew a coverage that allowed an easy touchdown pass to Randy Moss and later missed a tackle that helped get him benched. The 49ers appeared to target Bush in their game plan. According to ProFootballFocus.com, the 49ers threw at Bush eight times (twice as many as any other Packers defensive back) and completed five for an average 8.4 yards per catch.

By making the change, Capers implicitly acknowledged the mistake, though he also corrected it quickly. Surprisingly, the Packers have paid no price for going young and were rewarded immediately because they got faster and more athletic. They were a better defense in Weeks 2 and 3, and McMillian and Hayward were a big reason why.

In the last two games McMillian had one interception, had another nullified by a roughing-the-passer penalty, and had three passes defended. ProFootballFocus, which has a grading system for every play of every NFL game to quantify the results, reports that McMillian's coverage score through three games is best among all safeties in the NFL. Such independent statisitical analyses remain highly subjective, but the rating at minimum corroborates the eyeball test that McMillian is playing well.

Hayward also has made a difference in his more limited role in the dime. In the last two games he's allowed only three receptions for 24 yards, and his one breakup came on a third-down play that ended a Seahawks' drive.

"The encouraging thing to me is if we can stay healthy we can do this," Capers said as he gestured an upward pointing curve, "as these guys get a better understanding of the big picture. That part of it I like. Where a year ago we didn't have many alternatives to go to."

The theory behind playing the more talented rookie isn't to get immediate results, though sometimes they come from pure athleticism alone. The thinking is, though the rookie might make assignment errors early that contribute to a loss or two, he'll improve over the season more than the less-talented veteran. By the end of the year he'll be the much better player.

That's something to remember when considering the Packers' play-it-safe move last year, when then-36-year-old Donald Driver played ahead of talented second-round pick Randall Cobb all season. Their offense hummed all season - they led the NFL in scoring - so it didn't seem to be an issue.

It's telling that Cobb's first career touchdown catch, in the opener last season against New Orleans, came on a play in which he ran the wrong route but was bailed out because quarterback Aaron Rodgers read him on the fly. Coach Mike McCarthy no doubt liked the result but could foresee where a similar error could turn into an interception, maybe even for a score.

But you wonder what price the Packers paid in January. If McCarthy played Cobb more all season, the coach probably would have trusted the rookie for more than the 19 snaps (according to ProFootballFocus) he played in the Packers' playoff loss to the Giants.

Driver produced three catches for 38 yards in that game, including an 18-yard touchdown. But the Packers were desperate for a game-changing play, for someone to take a short pass and turn it into a big gainer, and Cobb's chances of delivering were much better than the aging veteran's.

Yes, it would have been risky to have played Cobb ahead of a still viable Driver last season. But it pays to remember that Vince Lombardi was as risky and ruthless as they come on personnel choices. He lived the axiom that it's better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late. He didn't wait for guys to play themselves out of a job.

For a glimpse into his mindset, look to 1963, when Lombardi traded longtime starting defensive end Bill Quinlan (30 at the time) and replacd him with fourth-round draft pick Lionel Aldridge.

"You can't stand pat in this league," Lombardi was quoted by the Milwaukee Sentinel on April 26 that year. "We think we drafted well, and if these boys are to do us any good we have to make room for them."

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Pete Dougherty column: With talent, playing it safe doesn't pay

By the end of training camp even the nonprofessional eye could see that rookie Jerron McMillian was a more talented safety than M.D. Jennings. Same for rookie Casey Hayward over Jarrett Bush at

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