Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160925
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP NWWD UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SUPPORT SCT TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A FEW DRY
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE /OVER
THE ERN GREAT BASIN/. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND HELP TO
DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES DURING THE DAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SCT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF AL/GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.
...ERN GREAT BASIN...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ERN GREAT BASIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THIS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...MAINLY DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LACK OF GREATER COVERAGE OF
TSTMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..CROSBIE.. 05/16/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160928
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE ERN STATES DURING
THE PERIOD...GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SERN STATES. ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS...A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
FURTHER WEST...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER MOST
OF THE WEST WHILE FLATTENING SOMEWHAT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SCT PRECIPITATION
WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SUPPORT SCT
CONVECTION. A FEW DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN/NWRN EDGE
OF THIS MOISTURE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
SLY WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AL...SRN GA AND THE FLA
PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH...MIN RH
READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
15-20 MPH OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LACK OF WIDESPREAD
MOD/HVY PRECIPITATION ON DAY ONE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEG F AND DWPTS IN THE 40S
MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...NRN PLAINS...
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DWPTS IN THE 40S AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MIN
RH READINGS FROM 25-30 PERCENT...ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
..CROSBIE.. 05/16/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...