UPDATE 1-Ukraine wheat harvest, exports to fall on drought -analyst

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By Pavel Polityuk
KIEV, July 24 (Reuters) - UkrAgroConsult on Tuesday cut its
forecast for Ukraine's 2018/19 crop year wheat harvest and
exports due to a severe drought across the country during spring
and the first half of summer.
The agriculture consultancy reduced its wheat harvest
forecast by 3.1 percent to 24.7 million tonnes, and exports to
15.5 million tonnes from 16 million tonnes forecast in June.
"Taking into account the current progress of winter wheat
harvest in Ukraine and our expectations for spring wheat,
UkrAgroConsult forecasts the country's wheat output to fall to
24.5-24.7 million tonnes," the consultancy said.
"Such a crop would bring wheat export potential to some 15.5
million tonnes."
Ukraine harvested 14.3 million tonnes of winter wheat from
67 percent of the sown area with an average yield of 3.39 tonnes
per hectare as of July 23. The yield stood at 3.58 tonnes per
hectare at the same date in 2017.
"The harvest of spring wheat has just started in the south
and, similarly to winter wheat, its first yields in this part of
the country are lower than last year because of drought
conditions in May-June," UkrAgroConsult said.
Government data shows that the spring wheat yield decreased
to 2.28 tonnes per hectare from 2.78 tonnes in 2017.
The consultancy, however, raised its forecast for this
year's maize harvest to 27.3 million tonnes from the previous
estimate of 26.6 million tonnes. The 2018/19 maize exports
forecast remained unchanged at 21 million tonnes, it said.
"The current weather conditions suggest corn yield in
Ukraine may rise. In view of the above, UkrAgroConsult forecasts
corn production in the country to hit a record 27.3-27.5 million
tonnes," it noted.
"Moreover, in case of favourable weather while grain
filling, we do not rule out that the crop will increase to
28-28.5 million tonnes," it added.
UKRAINE 2018/19 WHEAT SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
2018/19 2017/18
open stocks (tonnes) 740,000 1,061,000
area harvested (ha) 6,430,000 6,300,000
yield (t/ha) 3.84 4.17
harvest (tonnes) 24,700,000 26,100,000
exports (tonnes) 15,500,000 16,500,000
demand (tonnes) 24,700,000 25,960,000
ending stocks 750,000 1,203,000
UKRAINE 2018/19 MAIZE SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
2018/19 2017/18
open stocks (tonnes) 1,400,000 450,000
area harvested (ha) 4,550,000 4,470,000
yield (t/ha) 6.00 5.68
harvest (tonnes) 27,300,000 24,700,000
exports (tonnes) 21,000,000 18,000,000
demand (tonnes) 27,010,000 23,740,000
ending stocks 1,720,000 1,400,000
(UkrAgroConsult)
(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Sunil Nair)