Abstract

In 1981 the Energy Systems Program at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) published five scenarios of global energy demand and supply for the period 1975-2030. At least two of them, the high and low scenarios, are still quoted today. This paper analyses how accurately the IIASA scenarios of 1981 captured the actual development during the first 15 years of their time horizon. Those parts of the scenarios that refer to developments still in the future are also compared with current views of the long-term development of the global energy system as expressed in recent results collected by the International Energy Workshop (IEW). The comparisons show that the low scenario of 1981 came closest to actual developments up to 1990. With the exception of nuclear energy, its further projections fall well within the range of today's global energy scenarios.