Diaries

A surface trough (think of it as a stretched out area of low pressure) and extra energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring rain to Minnesota tonight (and then to the mitten tomorrow). Luckily, things will clear out for the majority of the day Saturday, and definitely for the game. Evening temps will be near normal for this time of year, so right around 50 degrees. Not too shabby of a Saturday! Let's put that jug back on the shelf in A2!

If you're in Minneapolis...

Tailgating

If you're up early, lots of clouds and temps in the low 40s with a SW wind at about 10mph (enough to feel a little breeze, leaves blow about). We're going to keep the chance of a few sprinkles here and there around until mid-morning, and that's when we'll start to see some of the clouds break up. We hit 50 degrees for lunchtime, keeping SW winds around 10mph, and we'll have mostly cloudy skies by then. Throughout the afternoon we'll see more and more of that sunshine! Highs will reach the upper 50s, and you'll notice the winds pick up a little bit to around 15mph (some small branches move), so make sure there's a rock on top of those napkins!

Kickoff

Skies really clear out for the evening! Just a few clouds linger as we kick off. 55 degrees heading in, with SW winds back down to about 10mph.

Halftime

We don't need too many layers for this game! Temps only go down by a few degrees as we take that halftime break - hanging on to the low 50s. Keeping those steady 10mph winds out of the SW, and just a few clouds in the sky.

Post-Game

We fall into the upper 40s leaving the game with mostly clear skies. Winds will be out of the SW, but start to shift more westerly heading into the late night. They'll remain constant right around 10mph, and be out of the WSW towards last call. Not a bad night to stay out late and celebrate! If you're taking advantage of turning the clocks back, it'll only be 45 degrees with a wind chill in the low 40s. If you're traveling Sunday, we're looking at highs around 60 with a mix of sun and clouds.

If you're in Ann Arbor...

Yeesh. A gray, rainy day for us here at home. We start the day with lots of clouds and temps in the low 40s. Winds are southerly and light through the first part of the day, and then start to pick up in the early afternoon. Highs will be around 50 degrees. If you're headed somewhere to watch the game, temps will be in the mid 40s with S winds at 15mph, gusting in the low 20s (small trees sway). Rain also moves in during the afternoon, and you can expect showers throughout the evening into the late-night. If you're out late, we lose the gusts and winds drop to 10mph, turning westerly. We then have some scattered showers into Sunday morning before the clouds giveway to some sun. C'mon blue!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

As it happens, FEI appears to validate M's defensive prowess as much as S&P+; but the offense... has room for improvement (so it's a good week for a bye). Special Teams is the great equalizer for M, as in the aggregate the Special Teams play compensates for M's offensive deficiencies (no pun intended...) such that the overall ratings for M are in the top ten across the board with the exception being ESPN's FPI rating, which is Monte Carlo based. I am presuming (maybe someone with insight into FPI might care to comment) that FPI includes some extrapolation of M's turnover margin (or lack thereof).

Turnover luck is certainly something that M has been lacking - it's attributable in no small measure to both of the losses and none of the wins thus far. A quick metric for gauging turnover luck is to look at the difference between actual and 2nd-order wins, which for M is 1.3 and means M should have 6+ wins thus far. By comparison, a certain undefeated team who shall not be named on the other hand is -2.0, meaning it would be expected to be 6-2 at this point. In terms of points per game, M's luck is costing -3.1, where as the UTWSNBN has been benefitting to tune of +3.9, or about a TD between the two.

Iowa remains the expected B1G West champ, and with any luck, MSU will drop is 50/50 game with Illinois Nebraska and M will be in to the B1G CG if it can win out and get by OSU.

Yours in football - Go Blue!

Please refer to the week 6 diary for additional external sources & references, as well as how to interpret the color scheme if it's not completely intuitive for you.

This is my weekly feature to look back at summer previews, get egg on my face, look over what Michigan did, and then project the rest of the year as we get more real time data. Last week's taking stock report can be found here.

Prelude: I did season previews on most UM opponents - I skipped UNLV, Indiana and Rutgers out of boredom, and OSU out of fear. The rest are below

Dear readers - the deeper we go into the season the more off my summer views will become as naturally teams will evolve from what we thought they would be and injuries happen.

This summer I predicted there would be a bye week this week.

I was correct. 100/100.

A Look at Michigan

The planned destruction of Minnesota Gopher football continues on pace. I cannot divuldge any other details. Harbaugh was so confident of it he went to a HS football game.

DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY (DOD!) RANKINGS

Basing games on WHEN they are played and WHERE this was my general view on degree of difficulty for each opponent coming into the year and adjusted weekly, Again this is not how good the team is in a vacuum but how they match up vs UM.

Week 8

Week 7

Week 6

Week 5

1

OSU

OSU

OSU

OSU

2

@Utah

@Utah

@Utah

@Utah

3

MSU

MSU

MSU

MSU

4

BYU

BYU

Northwestern

Northwestern

5

@PSU

@PSU

BYU

BYU

6

@Indiana

Northwestern

@PSU

@PSU

7

Northwestern

@Indiana

@Minn

@Minn

8

@Minn

@Minn

@Indiana

@Indiana

9

@Maryland

@Maryland

@Maryland

@Maryland

10

Rutgers

Rutgers

Rutgers

Rutgers

11

Oregon State

Oregon State

Oregon State

Oregon State

12

UNLV

UNLV

UNLV

UNLV

Week 4

Week 2

Week 1

Preseason

1

OSU

OSU

OSU

OSU

2

@Utah

MSU

MSU

MSU

3

MSU

@Minn

@Utah

@PSU

4

@Minn

@Utah

@Minn

@Utah

5

BYU

BYU

BYU

BYU

6

Northwestern

@PSU

@PSU

@Minn

7

@PSU

Northwestern

Northwestern

Northwestern

8

@Indiana

Rutgers

@Maryland

@Maryland

9

@Maryland

@Maryland

Rutgers

Rutgers

10

Rutgers

@Indiana

@Indiana

@Indiana

11

Oregon State

Oregon State

Oregon State

Oregon State

12

UNLV

UNLV

UNLV

UNLV

Stock Up

Indiana(+1) - The MSU game was deceiving as Indiana did Indiana things the last 6 minutes. But going on the road vs a top 10 team (even if you believe they are only top 20 worthy) after hosting OSU and showing well there means this team has some danger to it. Especially as they don't rely on the run like most Big 10 offenses so that will cause some issues. I see Indiana scoring in the 20s vs UM as Sudfeld is the real deal and they have some nice WRs. If Howard is healthy at RB (he looked 70% vs MSU and still did better than any UM RB could) in a few weeks he also poses danger although I expect UM to stymie him most of the day. But he is the type of RB that on any 3 carries in a game could go off for 50 - hence the danger. Thankfully Indiana's D is its normally crap self although they do seem to have a good player or two on the DL. Being a road game and having a competent QB and good RB - they pose more matchups problems then most teams.

Stock Down

Northwestern (-1) - Nebraska is not a good team. This was not a good game - the parts of it I could stomach to watch. Northwestern's QB had a few big runs, and NWs D had a big INT return for a score. Somehow that Northwestern offense held the ball for the last 4+ minutes as Nebraska could not stop them to get the ball back. Translation - Nebraska's D sucks. Connor Cook is going to make mincemeat of that unit. Justin Jackson was shut down for the 3rd week in a row and I wonder now if he is hurt or last year got to his head. He is not the same player of a year ago. The leading rusher was the QB Thorson (9 carries 126 yds) and he was his normal mediocre self in the air (13 of 28). NW is still living off their Stanford win in the advanced stats and the Duke win is looking decent. With their schedule they probably still have a path to 8+ wins but its front loaded in terms of quality wins.

Stock Flat

OSU - Unfortunately finally Urban Meyer came to the conclusion that a lot of us had held for many months - JT Barrett is more scary than Cardale Jones as the QB of THE Ohio State. Barrett was sickingly efficient (14/18, 233 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT) thru the air ... and scary again on the ground with his second straight 100+ yd game. Elliott did Elliott things and the variance between OSU and UM's offenses with Barrett at the helm is disconcerting. Yes it was only Rutgers but OSU is doing OSU things under Urban and that is getting better as the season moves along. OSU's defense also continues to improve shutting down a relatively good QB in Chris Laviano (10/20, 117 yds) and eradicating Rutger's 1 NFL talent on offense in Leonte Carroo. I think OSU's D is the unsung hero here as it has generally been grading out very well and when I look at mock drafts for NFL they have a multitude of early round NFL players all over it. This version of OSU is scary and I'm not sure where the "we match up great with OSU" stuff I am reading on the board the past few weeks is coming from, but hey "rivalry game" "1969" and stuff like that.

Utah - I've long held Utah is not a top 5 team but more like 15-20 but until they lose you have to respect them and give them the top 5 ranking. They actually have done better than I though the past few weeks although that Cal game was very losable. But they found a way each week until this week. Utah this year reminds me of some of the early Dantonio teams in terms a lot of 3 star talent that comes together to be a better team than the individual pieces would show. Then you look at USC's roster of players and you see Michigan / Penn State of the past 5-7 years. So this was a game that made sense to lose - talented team, removed of a locker room issue with their coach and with nothing to lose playing an overachieving team that is not super explosive (when not playing Oregon) and simply doesn't have the same level of athletes up and down the roster. Travis Wilson had a decent game outside of the 4 INTs (24/36) but protecting the ball is job #1 so saying he had a decent game except for the 4 times he handed the ball to USC is not an accurate statement I suppose. Kesler played error free ball for USC and JuJu Smith (a guy Hoke was after in the same class as Peppers) did cool stuff that playmakers do. I think both Juju and Adoree Jackson have now been converted to offensive players? They came out of HS as secondary players (just imagine the secondary of Juju, Adoree, Peppers, Lewis). Anyhow - sigh. Playmakers. As for Utah, still has a great chance for a 2-3 loss season max.

MSU - Speaking of playmakers. Connor MF Cook. Damn. That dude made himself some serious cash the last 3 weeks. He has no run game for defenses to really respect and yet is single handidly winning games (well except for *THAT*) nowadays. But even considering *THAT* MSU had no offense vs Michigan aside from Cook. Same vs Indiana. Same vs Rutgers. 30/52 for 398, 4 TDs and most impressive no INTs... after throwing 52 times. Watching the game I don't even recall a near miss of an INT that is Cook's usual thing. Some of the throws were just remarkable at the college level. Frankly I have no idea why MSU did not do that strategy vs UM ...they seem to love getting themselves in 3rd and long and then unleashing Cook on 3rd down. Thankfully they played Debord style vs UM. Also frustrating watch was Indiana getting more pressure on Cook then UM did. But it didn't matter. This game they saw it was going to be a shootout as Indiana could actually exploit their young secondary (something UM was totally incapable of) so they let Cook go off all game. I dont give a damn how he projects in the NFL; it doesn't mean a thing in college level terms which is what we are dealing with. He is straight dealing right now and for all those who say MSU has zero chance vs OSU ... IMO you fail to comprehend what an equalizer a QB playing at this level can be. Until a stake is put through zombie MSU's heart, Dantonio runs out of souls to sell (torrential monsoon rain on Indiana's 3rd drive, promptly ending as MSU took over post punt) and/or Cook is out with injury they have a chance in any game if he is playing at this level.

BYU - BYU beat Wagner 70-6. I was unaware Wagner played football. So was Wagner. To put this in perspective Wagner lost 43-14 the prior week to THE St Francis Red Flash. Yes seriously.

PSU - Reading thru all the PSU-Maryland game recaps and it sounded like a typical Brady Hoke game with all the associated follies; turnovers, penalties, goofy decisions. I was not a big fan of James Franklin and as each week passes I feel ever more content he is basically Brady Hoke with a better defensive coordinator than Mattison was. Maryland (!) was the team that finally stymied freshman RB phenom Barkley (20 carries for 65 yds). They had to turn to Hackenberg who actually had a game for himself. Chris Godwin averaged (!!) 33.8 per reception on 4 catches. The longest was 40 so this was not one huge catch skewing his stats. PSU's D - like UM's for decades - is pretty good vs conventional offenses but really sucks vs dual threats. They had held OSU to 21 thru 3 last week before Barrett was inserted at QB and then the wheels fell off. This week a crappy Perry Hills ran all over the defense. No seriously - he ran 26x for 124 yds. So PSU's D is sort of Jeckyl and Hyde - against conventional offenses it is troubling; vs dual threat QBs its Michigan of (pick any year from 1992 to 2014). Unfortunately we have a conventional offense with a mediocre QB and an average OL which is going to face multiple players of McDowell, Calhoun level. I continue to forecast #M00P in this game as both defenses stymie the offenses. I will have to research how bad or good PSU's special teams are because it's going to be difficult to count on one as bad as MSU's to give UM's offense all the breaks they received vs MSU.

Minn - Minnesota had a bye so did not offer me a chance to drop them in the DOD rankings. Minn is a poor man's Northwestern.

Maryland - Maryland gave PSU a game I suppose but Maryland's offense is very much UM's offense with Rich Rod in terms of its all abou the QB. Caleb Rowe was not a runner, Perry Hills is. So hard to compare apples to oranges. Maryland is 2-5 and 0-3 in the conf and still probably better than the crap teams below them in the ranks.

Rutgers - Rutgers poses some sort of threat I guess but I've had them this low all year because this is a home game, Rutgers has 1 NFL level offensive player and a joke for a defense. All these things OSU exploited. If UM lets Rutgers pass game go off on them, then it shows some fraudulent cracks IMO as we have played so few decent passing QBs. Rutgers shold not get more than 10-13 in this game if OSU could shut them down completely in Jersey and Rutgers D is poor enough UM should easily get into the 20s/30s.

Oregon State - OSU lost to a garbage Colorado team and program. At home. Colorado had a 14 game losing streak in the Pac 12 before this game. (last win 2013). They had a 12 road game losing streak in conference (last win 2012) Thanks Beavers. Remember when you got all excited a hung over Stanford team let OSU stick around for 30 minutes before deciding to show up a month ago? That was cool. Seth Collins was replaced at starter by Nick Mitchel who promptly went 9/24 with an INT. The 2 rotated all game. Which is like Threet vs Sheridan.

UNLV - UNLV had a bye thus did not have a chance to fall to 13th. They play Boise State next week which could beat them into the year 2016.

I know this isnt rocket science, but i do think that a lot of our deep throw misses can be attributed to ball control and turnover margin issues. Becasue of early turnovers Michigan has been working in a hole, and loosing the turnover margin means losses to a ball control team. I think the shots downfield that are missed are as bad as turnovers, but since they arent counted as such they still show up on stat sheets as a zero gain play. Confidence is still an issue because of those early turnovers.

Its better to throw a ball with zero percent chance of completeion with a zero percent change of interception then it is to throw a ball that is 50/50, When you are lacking the confidence and are still in the half full mentallity.

my hope is that a few more games with zero bad interceptions will lead to a qb that puts balls closer to that 50/50 and less to the 0/0... there is still something to be said about atempting the long ball enough to where the defense at least has to take the top off the coverage, and harbaugh knows this which is why they are still taking those shots, But i still think at this point not throwing an interception is more important to the staff and maybe to the QB then completing the pass..

LSU 35, Florida 28

Before the season, eight SEC teams were ranked in each major poll – now approximately halfway through the season, there’s only one undefeated team left: Les Miles’s LSU Tigers, who have leaned on Leonard Fournette, a strong offense line, and a characteristically stout defense. After a tightly-contested win over Florida – a classic Miles game that was won on a fake field goal in the fourth quarter – the Tigers look every bit the part of a playoff contender: they face Alabama in three weeks on the road in a game that will likely play an enormous role in determining the SEC West.*

Considering the context, Florida acquitted themselves well. With Treon Harris at the helm in place of suspended starting quarterback Will Grier, the Gators were forced to turn to a quarterback who’d proven to be erratic and ineffective in the past, but Harris played a solid game – especially for a visiting QB in Death Valley – throwing for two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even though Florida was completely unable to establish a running game (31 carries for 55 yards), the Gators put 28 points on the board, though half of them came on an LSU fumble on a punt return deep in Tigers territory and an electric punt return touchdown from freshman Antonio Callaway that tied the game late in the third quarter.

The most appealing game-within-the-game in this high-level matchup was Leonard Fournette and the LSU offensive line against their toughest test in a very solid Florida run defense: Fournette still notched 5.8 yards per carry on 31 attempts, though his longest carry of the day was just 25 yards. The big plays, surprisingly, were provided by a heretofore unproven passing game – a 52-yard flea-flicker to Malachi Dupre set up an early Fournette touchdown and Brandon Harris connected with Dupre again for a 50-yard touchdown in the waning seconds of the first half. Harris still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, allowing LSU even more comfort in their preferred style. The blueprint hasn’t changed for Les Miles: the Tigers want to control the game on the ground as much as possible.

Ultimately, it was a mostly even game – had LSU elected to actually kick the field goal, they likely still would have won – but Fournette again showed why he’s the most impressive player in college football, very possibly its best. Florida, which would have pushed itself squarely into the playoff discussion with a win, still remains in the driver’s seat in the SEC East – they can lock up the division with a win over Georgia this weekend.

*Also at the forefront in the SEC West hunt is Ole Miss. The Rebels may have seen their playoff hopes slip away for good with a loss to Memphis this past weekend, but they still only have one loss in SEC play (to Florida), a tiebreaker over Alabama, and a home game against LSU later this season. Things aren’t looking great in Oxford right now, but they’re in it as much as anyone at this point.

In light of the five FBS coaching changes that have already occurred, I thought I would take this opportunity to go over the attractiveness of each job, a primary candidate for each job, and two secondary candidates for each job. (Disclaimer: The candidates are merely my opinion, not anything official whatsoever, and I limited the coaching candidates to the college ranks). I also took the liberty of predicting which other FBS jobs could be open by the end of 2015. In order to compile this diary, I took some information from coachingsearch.com. Chris Vannini there does an excellent job of posting coaching updates from across all levels of football. If you Twitter, follow @coachingsearch.

Legend for attractiveness of each job:

Hot - One of the top 10-12 jobs in college football, a destination job, high pressure to win

Solid - Still a place you can win at, viewed as destination by at least some, still moderate/high pressure to win

Decent - Middle of the road, not bad, but nothing to get excited about. Could move on if Solid or Hot job opens up.

Fair - Uphill battle. High/mid Group of 5/low Power 5 type job. Ambitious coaches will usually leave this type of job if they can.

Airport - Won't be here for long either way. Win somewhat and you're off in 2-3 seasons, lose big and you're off in 2-3 seasons.

Open Jobs:

Illinois: Attraction - Decent Job. Illinois on the face has the look of a Solid job, but the fact is there is merely a light recruiting base in the state and the surrounding area; there is not enough competitive talent in the state. The head man will have to raid states like Ohio to round out the roster. There is also little tradition at Illinois. Guys have shown that you can achieve BCS/New Year's 6 success at Illinois as recently as the early 00s and that one run under Zook, so there is hope. For what it's worth it is the first choice in the state, and it's in the unspectacular B1G West.

Primary Candidate: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach. Babers has history coaching in the state, and took over a bad Eastern Illinois team and turned them into FCS Playoff participants just two seasons later. His offense is modeled after Baylor's Art Briles and has torched many FBS defenses already. This is a hire that would inject some excitment in a primarily stale and tired fan base in addition to just being a smart hire overall. Babers would be 55 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach

Maryland: Attraction - Decent Job. Maryland is a similar type job to Illinois, with a slightly better recruiting base in the DC metro area. An ambitious/smart head coach would dive into the Norfolk/VA Beach area, as well. Maryland has also made a BCS/NY6 appearance fairly recently, so there is also hope here; however, the athletic department at Maryland is cash-strapped after numerous mishaps, hence their betrayal of forever home ACC for the moneybags of the Big Ten. Little tradition at Maryland. The new guy will also be competing with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State on a yearly, and Michigan State will be a force as long as Dantonio is there.

Primary Candidate: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach. Fuente took over a dumpster fire at Memphis and has turned it into an SEC-whippin' machine. He would have to do the same at Maryland, but there's potential to do at Maryland what he's done at Memphis. Fuente will be only 40 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach

South Carolina: Attraction - Fair Job. This is an uphill battle. Let's go over some national-championship winning coaches that have, for the most part, failed at South Carolina. Paul Dietzel (LSU), Lou Holtz (Notre Dame), and Steve Spurrier (Florida). Spurrier won the SEC East a grand total of once at South Carolina. Holtz never did. The state of South Carolina does not really have enough competitive talent for two FBS programs, let alone one, and over the past 15-20 years most of the best talent that is in the state is going to Clemson. Clemson has more of a winning history and tradition, albeit a shorter history. The Gamecocks are the second on the block in a weak recruiting state, make no mistake.

Primary Candidate: Tom Herman, Houston Head Coach. Herman would be a great hire for South Carolina. The only question would be is if he would be willing to take on another challenge at South Carolina or really look to build up the Houston program (maybe toward even a Big XII invite?). Regardless, in my opinion this is the guy South Carolina should target. Ohio State clearly misses Herman on the offensive side of the ball and Herman has developed a reputation for being a ravenous recruiter and is doing that at Houston. The South Carolina job requires a sleepless recruiting effort. Make it happen, Cocky. Herman would only be 41 at the start of the 2016 season.

Primary Candidate: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State Head Coach. Predicting the next head coach for a program like Southern Cal is pretty fun. You can make a case for almost any semi-successful head coach in the country, as a program like Southern Cal can get anyone they want. Jimbo Fisher has already done all he can do at Florida State, and with perhaps the most lackadaisical undefeated regular season in history in 2014 followed up by a face plant against Oregon in the semi-final and a similar start in 2015, Fisher may be ready for a new challenge. Fisher has the rock star appeal that would fit in well at Southern Cal and, for better or worse, Fisher's FSU has been in the news almost constantly since he's been there. The man can recruit, motivate, and win on game day, which is what Southern Cal needs most right now. In addition, and this would be just as much a change for personal reasons, Fisher just this summer went through a divorce, after his wife allegedly had an affair with one of his ex-players. So Southern Cal would theoretically allow him to get away and get a new start. Fisher would be 50 at the start of the 2016 season.

Secondary candidate 1: Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M Head Coach

Secondary candidate 2: James Franklin, Penn State Head Coach

North Texas: Attraction - Airport. This change went under the radar, and rightfully so. North Texas canned former Iowa State head coach Dan McCarney after UNT lost 66-7 to homecoming opponent Portland State. Most will remember Mean Joe Greene as a famous alumnus of North Texas. North Texas has gone through many problems in its history, notably being "demoted" to 1-AA in the late 70s by the NCAA. However, through major donor support, the program re-entered 1-A in 1995 (wikipedia). For what it's worth, UNT is in the state of Texas (obviously) and the institution just opened up a brand new on-campus Apogee Stadium, and has seemingly shown willingness to invest in the program and facilities. However, the next head man here will likely have to come from the FCS ranks and view it as a step up. AD Rick Villarreal stated that he would like the next hire to be "offensive minded" (coachingsearch.com).