A Russian-Turkish agreement on Syria?

Beirut:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is suggesting a tripartite summit in
Moscow this September, between himself and his Turkish and Syrian
counterparts, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar Al Assad.

If
it does happen, this would be the first time that the two friends
turned sworn enemies come face-to-face since their last meeting in
Damascus in January 2011.

During
their meeting in St. Petersburg last August, Putin and Erdogan agreed
on a basket of political issues related to their country’s roles in
the Syrian battlefield.

The
understanding comes amidst a warming of ties between Ankara and
Moscow after the failed coup attempt in July and Russia’s military
involvement in the Syria War since September.

Erdogan
sought Russian assistance in amputating the Kurdish threat on the
Syrian-Turkish border, and in taking border towns and cities that he
sees as vital for his country’s security.

If
the Russians cooperated on seriously handling the Kurdish threat, he
was willing to fall in-line with President Putin’s strategy for
Syria, realising that a clean cut victory against Al Assad, as
Erdogan had anticipated back in 2011, was becoming increasingly
difficult.

Instead
of getting further entrenched in the Syrian War, which has backfired
on Turkey with an influx of refugees and major terrorist attacks in
cities like Ankara and Istanbul, the Turkish government prefers to
let the Russians lead on Syria if Turkish interests are preserved and
a face-saving back-out plan is engineered by Moscow.

Serious
steps have already been taken in this direction, aimed solely at
pleasing Erdogan, including allowing his tanks to invade the Syrian
border city of Jarabulus and bombing Kurdish military positions in Al
Hasaka.

In
exchange for Russian cooperation on both issues, Erdogan has agreed
to let the Syrian Army re-take Aleppo, and surrendered to Putin’s
insistence on the fate of Al Assad.

Putin
is investing in the US’s visible absence from the region during the
last five months of President Obama’s tenure, and trying to hammer
out an agreement that will become a de-facto reality by the time a
new president reaches the Oval Office next January.

For
his vision in Syria to pass he needs full Turkish cooperation and a
thawing in Turkish-Syrian relations.

Putin’s
suggested dates for the tripartite summit are 18-22 September.

Last
week, a senior Syrian military delegation in Moscow to discussed
details of the tripartite summit, headed by President of the National
Security Bureau General Ali Mamlouk, and Commander of Military
Intelligence General Mohammad Mhalla.

Meanwhile,
the Commander of Turkish Intelligence General Hakan Fidan will be
visiting Damascus for the same purpose between 10-15 September 2016.

If
it happens, there will be no warmth at the summit, the Syrians have
conditioned: no handshakes, no side-talks, just one photograph and
high politics negotiations behind closed doors.

The
political endgame will be signed off completely by the Russians and
it will include a formula based on the Vienna communiqué of last
October and UNSCR 2254.

It
has to happen before the US elections, said source in Damascus, and
all sides will market it and treat it as start of the “political
transition.”

It
won’t be a transition from government to opposition but rather from
Baath rule into a power-sharing one that ushers gradual democracy on
the long run.

Erdogan
has seemingly agreed to Russian plans that all “sovereignty”
portfolios: Foreign Affairs, Interior, Finance, Education, and
Justice, are kept with the Syrian regime.

The
remaining portfolios in the 30-man cabinet will be divided equally in
tens, between the regime, the opposition (without going into detail
which opposition this would be) and independents.

The
Syrians have seemingly agreed to appoint three vice-presidents: one
independent, one opposition, and one government figure.

The
transition period will then start and last for 18-months, and it will
supervise drafting of a new constitution, restoring calm to different
cities and towns, and combatting terrorism.

At
the end it will also supervise parliamentary and presidential
elections, and if Putin gets his way, Al Assad is entitled to run for
a new tenure at the president, which will last until 2024.

Syrian-Turkish
relations were always strained after collapse of the Ottoman Empire
back in 1918. When the two republics were young, they often clashed
politically, with the Turks accusing Arab nationalists in Damascus of
betraying the Ottoman crown, and consecutive governments in Damascus
accusing the Turks of having been an occupying force, no different
from French colonisers.

In
1939, the Turks reached a deal with the French mandate regime in
Syria, calling for a step-by-step annexation of the Sanjak of
Alexanderetta, a narrow coastal plain backed by a chain of mountains
on the lower valley of the Orontes River.

Its
main city was Antioch, a prosperous metropolis that Turkey laid claim
to after World War I.

The
1920 Treaty of Sevres had fixed the post-Ottoman Syrian-Turkish
border, giving Alexanderetta to Syria. Prosperity in the post-war era
had muzzled dissent in the Sanjak, but due to the world depression,
ethnic and religious communities began sinking back into communal
loyalties, inspired no doubt by the surge in Syrian and Turkish
nationalism.

Relations
never recovered after the Turkish annexation of Alexanderetta, and
were on the verge of a complete show-down when in 1998, the Turkish
army amassed on the Syrian border, threatening war with Damascus if
Al Assad did not extradite Abdullah Ocelan, leader of the Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) who was operating from Syria and leading a
guerrilla war against the Turkish government.

Ocelan
was forced to leave and eventually captured by the Turks, and remains
in Turkish custody until today.

Relations
gradually improved in the upcoming years, when Turkish President
Ahmet Necdet Sezar took part in Al Assad’s funeral in June 2000.

When
the AKP came to power in Turkey, then-Prime Minister Erdogan put full
focus on Syria, boosting trade and commerce, lifting visas for
Syrians, and investing in a strong personal friendship with President
Bashar Al Assad.

The
relationship collapsed at the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011,
when the Turks pushed for a power-sharing formula between Al Assad
and the outlawed Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Diplomatic
relations were subsequently severed, and the Turks have since been
the main political and financial backers of the Syrian Opposition,
establishing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the summer of 2011,
followed by the Syrian National Council (SNC).

For
the past five years, Erdogan has not missed an opportunity to call
for Al Assad’s downfall while as recently as last April, Al Assad
accused Erdogan of being a “butcher” and “thug.”

More
recently, thanks to Russian mediation, the relationship has somewhat
cooled. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has twice called for
normalisation with Damascus while Syrian state-run media has stopped
accusing Turkey of being behind the battles of Aleppo, putting full
blame on Qatar and Saudi Arabia.