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Has Bill Belichick become a conservative play-caller? Numbers say yes

Bill Belichick

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during the second half of the NFL football AFC Championship football game against the Baltimore Ravens in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
(AP)

If nothing else, Bill Belichick has never been afraid to take risk or make a controversial play call if he thought bucking conventional wisdom gave him a better chance of winning.

The man is a maverick, fourth-and-2 taught us that. And throughout most of his career, that much always remained true. But it seems this line of thinking is no longer factual – at least temporarily.

According to a study conducted by Football Outsiders, Belichick ranked 23rd in the NFL last season in “Aggressiveness Index.” At its core, the stat, which is defined here, aims to determine how often a coach will “go for it” in different situations.

Historically, Belichick typically graded out as one of the most aggressive play-callers in the NFL. But for whatever reason that changed last year. As the site points out, the Patriots didn’t attempt a single run or pass play on fourth-and-2 in 2012, and only went for it twice in long field-goal range (defined as between the 31- and 37-yard lines).

Perhaps the best example of this came in a divisional playoff game against the Ravens when New England punted and kicked a field goal on a pair of fourth-and-2 situations.

From the site:

“As a result, Belichick ranks a shocking 23rd out of 34 head coaches in Aggressiveness Index for 2012. This is a massive change from most of Belichick's career. Belichick has the fifth-highest career AI of any head coach with at least three full seasons between 1991 and 2012, and he ranked in the top six for AI every year between 2004 and 2010 before falling to 11th in 2011 (although he was sixth in 2011 in the older version of AI). 2012 was only the third season out of 18 when Belichick ranked in the bottom half of the league; the others were 1994 (0.76 AI, 21st) and 2003 (.84 AI, 23rd). He doesn't seem like the kind of guy to ever react to the pressure of conventional wisdom, but is it possible that a few high-profile fourth-down failures have actually made Belichick more risk averse?”

Perhaps he has become a little gun shy, but a one-season sample probably isn’t enough to warrant sweeping generalizations. It seems too soon to call Belichick conservative, even if the numbers say he now is.