Democrats have edge in Calif. congressional race

SACRAMENTO, Calif. 
Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, a fixture in state and national politics for 35 years, is expected to maintain the Democratic Party's hold Tuesday on a congressional seat that stretches from the eastern San Francisco Bay area through the California delta.

The special election in California's 10th Congressional District will fill the seat once held by former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat who was named earlier this year to a State Department position.

Like most California congressional districts, this one is heavily gerrymandered to ensure that one party retains power. Democrats hold an 18-point voter registration edge over Republicans, giving Garamendi a nearly insurmountable advantage.

"It's Garamendi's to lose," said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher and editor of the California Target Book, which analyzes legislative and congressional campaigns.

The district primarily stretches across Contra Costa and Solano counties to the east and north of San Francisco, and includes small sections of Alameda and Sacramento counties. Nearly 70 percent of the district's voters are in Contra Costa County, which includes the wealthy and left-leaning suburbs of Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda and Walnut Creek.

Garamendi's Republican opponent, David Harmer, has been campaigning against excessive government spending. It's unclear how widely that theme will resonate in a congressional district that supported Barack Obama with nearly 65 percent of the vote in last year's presidential race.

The 47-year-old attorney said he supports health care reform but believes a public option, which could be included in the bill that eventually emerges from Congress, is not necessary.

"We can do it in an incremental, balanced, cost-effective way that doesn't constrain consumer choice and doesn't put bureaucrats and lawyers in charge of medical decisions," Harmer said.

Harmer, the son of former California Lt. Gov. John Harmer, said he knows the district's voter registration figures are against him but believes an upset is within reach. He said his message of fiscal conservatism may reach voters who are being hurt by the recession, which has sent California's unemployment rate above 11 percent.

"What people care about is the economy struggling while government spending is exploding," he said.

Garamendi has near-universal name recognition in the district because of his long tenure in elective office and two failed runs for the Democratic nomination for governor.

He served in the state Legislature from 1974 until he was voted insurance commissioner in 1990, serving one term before being named deputy secretary of the Interior Department in the Clinton administration. He was elected a second time as insurance commissioner in 2002 and lieutenant governor in 2006.

A rancher with a Harvard MBA, the 64-year-old Garamendi benefited from that familiarity when he defeated three other well-funded Democrats during the Sept. 1 primary.

In the general election, he has been playing up his reputation as a true-blue Democrat who will be a faithful supporter of the Obama administration.

Garamendi also is using his advantage in campaign donations to stay visible through television commercials, fliers and telephone calls. He had raised nearly $1 million compared to Harmer's $673,000 as of Oct. 14, according to official campaign finance reports.

"My task is to round up the Democrats and get them to vote," Garamendi said. "We are really focused on the issues. I'm a strong supporter of universal health care, including now the public option."

As an indication of Harmer's challenges, the National Republican Congressional Committee has not contributed any money to his campaign, according to campaign finance reports. Instead, it has been focused on Tuesday's other congressional race, in upstate New York.

Should Garamendi win, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would nominate someone to fill the lieutenant governor vacancy, subject to confirmation by the Legislature.

Candidates from the Green, American Independent and Peace and Freedom parties also appear on the ballot.