Forget glass-half-full, Brian T looks at a full glass 2012 for Astros

This blog began nearly seven years ago. Back then, there were a handful of regular contributors. One of those originals — or near originals — returns today with a look at 2012. Welcome back Brian Todd, aka Brian T.

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As Astros fans, all we hear about is how the winning won’t happen until 2014 (2013 for the truly delusional). Well, I say why not just win this year?

No, I haven’t been possessed by the spirit of “The Grocer.” No, I don’t need a padded cell. (Well, I might, but that’s not related to this post.)

Look, I understand the reality that this team is probably going to give us a year of heartache before we get dragged kicking and screaming to the AL West. But before the season has started and with Spring Training still joyfully about four weeks in the future, I decided to take a glass-half-full (OK, all-full) look at the 2012 Astros. After all, once the season begins, the hopelessness of 2012 will be our everyday reality. So why not imagine what could be?

First, a couple of ground rules: I am in no way advocating spending money on this team. My dream is limited to what we have, not some pie-in-the-sky dreamland where we sign Roy Oswalt and Prince Fielder. So if I am limiting my dream, I hope you must too.

Second, this is an exercise in optimism — maybe even Pollyanna-ism — so let’s just dream big. Reality will set in soon enough.

A quick note: There are a lot of stats going on here, but my favorite is OPS for hitters. No, it’s not the uber-stat. It’s just that when comparing minor league numbers vs. major league numbers and looking at how some guys were hitting in 2010 (I’m looking at you, Jason Castro), I’m trying to simplify things. That means picking one stat that can be easily understood: OPS. Plus, if you look at the top OPS teams, none with an OPS below .717 (the Phillies) made the playoffs last year. And I’m thinking Philadelphia’s pitching staff helped carry that low OPS. Of the top six OPS teams, ONLY Boston DIDN’T make the playoffs. And the Yankees (third-best OPS) and Rays (OPS of .724 with the 8th best ERA) edged them out.

So getting a team OPS above .750 is a goal that, if reached, would make this team a contender. OPS ranking mostly tracks runs scored ranking. And runs scored win games. Last year’s team OPS was .684, and the Astros scored just 615 runs. Milwaukee, with its .750 OPS last year scored 100-plus runs more than Houston.

We start this exercise in optimism with the infield (to be followed by the outfield, starters and bullpen). So take a deep breath and dream for now …

Catcher: Jason Castro or Chris Snyder
Well, our little exercise in optimism starts at a difficult place. Castro has played just 12 games … in the Arizona Fall League … since the end of the 2010 season, a season where he batted .205 in 195 ABs with a .573 OPS. So, what, pray tell, could possibly be encouraging about this? Well, back in 2010 against big league pitching, Castro whiffed nearly twice for every free pass: 22 BB vs. 41 Ks. In the AFL this fall, he walked 6 times and struck out 5. And the OPS … .720. I know the AFL isn’t the National League, but if Castro is ever going to become worthy of that No. 1 draft pick, this would be the time to do it. Maybe he’s developed plate patience.

Maybe he’ll get on base and add a little pop to his bat.

Of course, if Castro starts the season on the DL or later falters, we’ll see Chris Snyder, who has a lifetime OPS of .727 and last year delivered an OPS of .772 while hitting .271 in 34 games.

Backup: Of course, if Castro and Snyder fail, we have Humberto Quintero coming off his typical season. He hit .240 with a yawn-worthy .575 OPS. Yeah, I appreciate Q for what he is … a serviceable veteran backup backstop.
Here’s hoping Castro or Snyder steps up
Last year’s OPS at catcher: .550
Hopeful OPS from the position: .700

1B: Carlos Lee
I am pumped to see what Carlos does. There, I said it. Why? Well, if you recall 2011, the Old Panamanian Pony had an off year in 2011. Yet somehow he hit 18 HRs and drove in 94 runs. So he almost knocks in 100 runs on a down year? How did this happen?

Well, it happened because the Astros got tired of waiting for Brett Wallace to figure out how to hit. Pre-All-Star Game (88 games) when he played the majority of his games in left field, Carlos hit 7 home runs and knocked in 48. After the All-Star Game (67 games) when Carlos was anchored to first base, he hit 11 HRs and knocked in 46. Maybe not needing to run (I threw up a little when I typed that) in the outfield gave Lee the extra energy he needed to hit better. We’re talking about an OPS of .850 post mid-summer vs. a .741 OPS before. Oh, and it’s a contract season for the Pony.

Backup: While Matt Downs is listed second on the depth chart, I think the only way we don’t get a steady diet of Carlos at first base is if he gets traded in late July. And that means Wallace. It also means this exercise in optimism never happened.
Last year’s OPS at 1B: .775
Hopeful OPS: .825

2B: Jose Altuve
OK, here’s where my optimism really gets going. In 221 NL at bats, Altuve had this line: .276/.297/.357. Now that’s nothing to write home about (though his OPS was higher than the position delivered overall in 2011), but Altuve has had a habit of getting a few at bats at a new level then going on a tear. I’d expect that to happen again. If his minor league numbers are to be believed, I’d expect Altuve to once again hit .300 or better, total 10-12 homers and have an OPS above .825. That’s better than any second baseman we’ve had since … Biggio? … Jeff Kent? … Not exactly …

Backup: It seems Matt Downs had an OPS of .864 last year with 10 HRs in 199 ABs. Yeah, I’m pretty sure we’ll have someone who can hit at 2B.
Last year’s OPS at 2B: .652
Hopeful OPS: .800

3B: Jimmy Paredes
Paredes is still filling out his lanky frame. That said, last year in 168 big league ABs, Paredes delivered this line: .286/.320/.393. That’s an OPS of .713. All of that isn’t far off from his Hooks numbers. So, why am I excited about Paredes? Well, it’s that lanky frame. If he can add a little muscle, we might be looking at a guy who can hit .286 with some better power numbers. Maybe crack .750 on the OPS. Hey, a guy named Bagwell developed into a power hitter once he found the weight room.

Backup: Chris Johnson needs to repeat his 2010 numbers. That means a BA of .308 and an OPS of .818. This Chris Johnson would probably send Paredes down to CC or OKC where he belongs. Either way, if one of these guys steps up, I’m good.
Last year’s OPS at 3B: .688
Hopeful OPS: .750

SS: Jed Lowrie says injuries have hurt his switch-hitting splits, and I believe him. The numbers back that up. For example, last year his OPS split was .582 vs. right and .876 vs. lefties. During this time he was still suffering the effects of injuries. Well, now he’s healthy. So, which Jed Lowrie will we get? How about the Lowrie of 1.025 vs lefties and .823 vs. righties. THAT Jed Lowrie an overall OPS of .907 while hitting .287 with 9 HRs in 55 games.

Backup: Angel Sanchez has a rep as a hitter but having no glove at SS. Odd for a guy with a lifetime .612 OPS. I’ll hang my hat on Lowrie.
Last year’s OPS at SS: .677
Hopeful OPS: .825

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Brian Todd has been an Astros fan through thick and thin. He lives in Minnesota with this wonderful family who put up with his need to stream audio of games over the internet while he cooks dinner each night.