Stimulus anniversary timeline: A year on the road to nowhere

posted at 7:45 pm on February 17, 2010 by Karl

Allahpundit is probably right that Pres. Obama’s attempt to spin the “stimulus” law as a success is politically futile. However, the Obama administration is going to spend all week on the effort (“More Cowbell!”), so it is worth a look at how their first big project ended up with a six percent approval rate in the Dem-friendly CBS/NYT poll. House Republican Whip Eric Cantor has the full timeline (.pdf); these are just a few of the grim milestones on the Road to Nowhere:

February 17, 2009: The nation’s first Recovery Act project is announced, a new bridge in Tuscumbia, MO. CNN later reports on “A New ‘Bridge to Nowhere’.”

April 13, 2009:The Administration announces the 2,000th Recovery Act project, but an ABC News fact check reveals that far fewer projects are actually underway, and may not come in under budget as claimed.

May 27, 2009: President Obama marks the 100 day anniversary of the Recovery Act by claiming that 150,000 jobs have been saved or created. Politifact calls this “not much better than a guess presented as a fact.”

July 27, 2009: Congressional Democrats claim highway and transit spending from the stimulus has created or sustained 48,000 jobs. ProPublica says “the estimate suffers from what’s become a common malaise in the stimulus world: fuzzy math.” ProPublica found “a reliance on raw head counts — which tend to inflate the numbers by giving full- and part-time jobs the same weight — and by counting the same workers two, three or four times.”

October 15, 2009: The administration announces that contracts awarded with Recovery Act funds have created or saved 30,383 jobs. The Associated Press found “some counts were more than 10 times as high as the actual number of jobs; some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two and sometimes more than four times; and other jobs were credited to stimulus spending when none was produced.”

October 30, 2009: The administration announces that the Recovery Act has saved or created 640,329 total jobs. On November 19, the Administration admits that they cannot confirm their claim.

December 18, 2009: The Administration sends out a memo saying they will no longer count jobs “created or saved,” but instead count jobs funded in whole or in part by the Recovery Act. But they brought it back in the most recent report from Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

What leaps out from the timeline is that the Democrats not only oversold the Recovery Act, but continued to oversell it — not just with these claims but also puffery from Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, etc. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to over 10 percent. In addition, the adminsitration was embarrassed by a stream of news stories about wasteful stimulus projects like the $3.4 million spent for an alligator crossing, the million-dollar guardrail, and so on. It is small wonder so few believe the Recovery Act was a success.

The holdouts tend to be in the establishment media, like the New York Times. David Leonhardt relies on models from economic search firms, perhaps those who have been continually surprised as unemployment rose “unexpectedly.” Others will tell you that the stimulus at best “saved” jobs, but did not “create” them. The Congressional Budget Office will tell you that “it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package.” And when you look at those competing views, you will find a general agreement that the jobs that got saved were primarily in government, and education (which is mostly government). In the private sector, the Recovery Act is killing some jobs, as it extracts money to prop up the government spending. In addition, Leonhardt leaves out arguments that that other policies may have been not only cheaper, but also more effective. He also omits warnings from the very sources he cites that any short-term gain from the stimulus should be balanced against the medium-term risk of a debt crisis. That road is worse than a Road to Nowhere.

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This is sooo much easier than looking at reality and doing real reporting. CBS used to choose to be liberal, now they are losing the assets to be much more than an illustrated headline service for the NYT and AP.

Did I tell you about the disgruntled network person I know…(someone just had a stroke)…

How apt that the anniversary falls on the Christian day of Repentance. I don’t know about you but I feel like lighting a candle, saying a prayer, and hoping that this national nightmare is soon behind us as soon as November.

I really loved the bouncing numbers of jobs “saved or created”. You did a nice round-up, Karl, but no one could include all the moving claims. Up, down, up, down, … With a crescendo as three administration higher-ups all declared different numbers on the same day to three separate Sunday news shows. And then they just started all over again. You can’t make sh!t like this up. Well, I guess leftists can, as they had no problem actually making this sh!t up.

I think they have gotten away with this because no one ever believed any of their numbers, anyhow. Who cares if The Precedent claims 2 million jobs created or saved (LOL) one day and 1.5 million saved or created a month later, while recovery.gov has something like 421,233.88723 jobs created (who ever goes to recovery.gov, anyway?).

I do think it’s nice of the lame streams to keep calling it a $787 billion POS bill when the CBO has already put it up over $850 billion. Nostalgia, I guess …

Memo to THE ONE: You are supposed to under promise and over deliver, not the opposite.

Chewy the Lab on February 17, 2010 at 7:56 PM

And for God’s sake stop making every speech about yourself- as if anybody still gives a rodent’s behind about you. I’m willing to bet even your security detail has a countdown clock running back in their office.

Our school district got $25 million last year from the stimulus–it kept us from pink slipping a bunch of staff last year, but that money’s gone and we still have to pink slip a bunch of folks (500 teachers alone) this year. To my way of thinking, a job isn’t saved or created unless it’s more or less permanent, and none of these were, so what’s the point?

To my way of thinking, a job isn’t saved or created unless it’s more or less permanent, and none of these were, so what’s the point?

Bob’s Kid on February 17, 2010 at 8:08 PM

The NEA kept its members happy for another year. Which of course is a political necessity for the filthy lying coward in the White House. Your kids and school district ultimately get screwed but that is Bush’s fault.

Got mine too. Didn’t think about framing it or saving, but you got a point, wow! We are the ones we’ve been waiting for! /semisarc (is there such a thing???)

Seriously, we are living in historic times. I hope I don’t sound too narcissitic in saying that we have to help ensure that history will record the current chicanery appropriately. I know I had so, so much of American history wrong because I took what was taught to me at face value. I am far from knowledgeable now, but am trying to learn something new everyday.
Nobody will know who Chewythelab is in 5, 10, 100 years. I just hope that something I say here, or elsewhere, will resonate with someone way down the road,and they will maybe question their government just a little bit.
Am I nuts?

The holdouts tend to be in the establishment media, like the New York Times. David Leonhardt relies on models from economic search firms, perhaps those who have been continually surprised as unemployment rose “unexpectedly.”

Boy, i came to HotAir ’cause I was curious to see how you addressed the news that three leading, independent economic research firms all agree the stimulus bill created at least 1.5 million jobs, with as much as a million more yet to come (consider that a lot of those “shovel-ready” jobs will actually be seen this year).

I’m not surprised it’s treated as an opinion of the “liberal NYTimes” (is there ANYTHING you guys won’t use the media bias crutch for?), and that the findings of the three leading independent economic research firms are dismissed (and buries) in a glancing sentence in the middle of the piece that makes a complete irrelevant reference to a word choice some used in describing a couple-month-old climb in unemployment.

I shouldn’t be surprised, you face this news head on and you pretty much HAVE to admit the stimulus bill created a lot of jobs and without it, the economy would have been much worse off.

That 500 billion of stim money will suddenly start pouring out of DC like puke out of a puppy….I’d say June 1st would be a really good time to trigger a boatload. Just in time for the mid-terms! Imagine that!

Boy, i came to HotAir ’cause I was curious to see how you addressed the news that three leading, independent economic research firms all agree the stimulus bill created at least 1.5 million jobs, with as much as a million more yet to come (consider that a lot of those “shovel-ready” jobs will actually be seen this year).

Tom_Shipley on February 17, 2010 at 8:31 PM

You’re not familiar with the concept of opportunity cost, I see. Not surprising.

If it was working, would they need to spend the better part of a week telling us it’s working?

I believe this administration engages in Group Doublethink; they at once accept as fact that the stimulus worked, and it didn’t and more stimulus is needed (jobs bill). Thank the lord that Reid’s incompetent leadership has temporarily scuttled the “jobs” bill.

I hated the 70s, but it looks like they are happening again. I just hope we hold on long enough to repeat the 80s. We need us some Ronald Reagan – even if it means big hair, leg warmers and mullets.

Funny, more than 100 Republican congress people who voted against the stimulus have been begging for funding, cutting ribbons and bragging about how many jobs the projects they voted AGAINST will create.

I read a story a week or so ago, about Couric getting all decked out in expensive clothes to do a photo shoot, while reporters at CBS were going to be , or have lost their jobs. One of the comments on this site, and I can’t remember which site, and if I find it, I’ll post it, but the comment said Couric has an expensive summer home, and the local library wanted to expand on it, to make a better childrens section. Couric, and others fought hard against this, because it would mean children of lesser means would be coming into her neighborhood, and the local elites did NOT want that.

If this is true, then why on Gods green earth would anyone believe this woman, let alone Obama gives a sh!t about jobs for anyone? It’s ALL about them.

Tom_Shipley on February 17, 2010 at 8:31 PM

ummmm What? LOL If these numbers were accurate…1.5 million jobs created you say? If that’s true, than why are they talking about another stimulus, and why are they needing more money to cover unemployment benefits? It’s bogus. You’re the kind of pawn they love. Willing to believe without proof, and willing to deliver this false proof, in a desperate attempt to convert just one to this b.s.

I shouldn’t be surprised, you face this news head on and you pretty much HAVE to admit the stimulus bill created a lot of jobs and without it, the economy would have been much worse off.

Tom_Shipley on February 17, 2010 at 8:31 PM

Hey Tom, where ya been? Long time since Captain’s Quarters, huh. quick question—do you expect to have any grandchildren that will wonder why liberals passed on this false economy bill to be paid for by them? Be sure to leave a video of why you advocated for this to prevent “your economy” from being worse off.

Barack, Katie — it’s all about me. When a library expansion near her $6.3-million summer home threatened to attract children from surrounding middle-class towns, she was one of the homeowners whose representatives urged the zoning board to stop the project. With Obamaesque sensitivity for the chef-less masses, she wanted to protect the children who would feel out of place in a resort town peopled by the likes of Martha Stewart and Jerry Seinfeld.

Soooooooo, by losing 7 million jobs, the stimulus plan is a success for the democrats? Where are the “shovel ready jobs”? Turtle tunnels in Florida? Rodent habitats in Bezerkley, CA? More Acorn funding? Arizona districts that don’t exist created jobs? Just to name a few?

How about Obowma Saved or created 10% unemployment!!

THANK YOU DEMS, and here’s some gubmint cheese on your way out in 2010, real American’s have some housecleaning to do.

IIRC, they’ve blown about $300 billion so far. That leave around $480 billion to go. My thoughts are that will be their campaign fund – that money will kick in to cause a spike in jobs (and nifty handouts to Dem action groups) around 2011.

Of course, after the election, the ‘correction’ will come when debts from the faux recovery have to be paid off, but hey, it’s lame duck status at that point so who cares…Plus it will be another crisis that Rahm can’t afford to waste.

Yeah tinfoil hat time, but don’t forget when porkulus was passed everyone, including HotAir, I believe, noted most of the money wouldn’t kick in until after a few years had passed.

Who cares…We demand good government, period…Republican fools like John McCain and Lindsey Graham are going to get the comeuppance of a lifetime along with your dear leader and the legions of frauds in our government…

I shouldn’t be surprised, you face this news head on and you pretty much HAVE to admit the stimulus bill created a lot of jobs and without it, the economy would have been much worse off.

Tom_Shipley on February 17, 2010 at 8:31 PM

I’m going to stay away from the frankly unwise categorical statements because I’m quite sure the stimulus kept many state workers from getting furloughed. Probably hundreds of thousands overall. And I drive under about a dozen battered and rusty overpasses in PA on my way to work every day that are being replaced with ARRA money, and I’m frankly glad to see that going on.

It doesn’t make “saved or created” any less of an insult to thinking people.

It doesn’t make the data any cleaner (nonexistent ZIP codes and Districts — what else is wrong?).

It doesn’t excuse all the many documented problems with double-counting, misreporting, etc.

It doesn’t put aside the fact that many of those Republican objections were procedural objections.

It doesn’t let us ignore that the “targeted, timely, and temporary” stimulus has seen little correlation of spending with baseline local economic conditions, only a fraction of the funds spent of even fully obligated in the first year (making the presumed multiplier completely ridiculous), and has seen some of the temporary spending programs now incorporated into the President’s new budget baseline.

And most importantly, it doesn’t get the President a pass for the completely ineffective PPIP and the almost completely ineffective mortgage mod programs (you might remember all the toxic paper and the housing crisis?). He’s failing on the fundamentals and trying to paper it over with the $787 billion. Anyone see Elizabeth Warren on CNBC last week talking about what’s keeping her up at night? Anyone get any sense that the Administration’s doing any blessed thing about that?

[I had tried to post this earlier with CNBC links but it got caught in moderation -- that's weird.]

You’d have to be an idiot to give the President anything but an “Incomplete” at this point.

And I drive under about a dozen battered and rusty overpasses in PA on my way to work every day that are being replaced with ARRA money, and I’m frankly glad to see that going on.

DrSteve on February 18, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Keep in mind you have been paying a “fuel” tax (currently $0.18 per gallon FED) + state and local taxes (if your state has them) “fuel” tax all for the repair, upgrades and maintenance for roads for DECADES!

Obviously that money was not spent on repair, upgrades and maintenance for roads.

So now the Fed wants to “give” some money thru ARRA to do the repair, upgrades and maintenance for roads that you and I along with everyone else have already paid for 10 times over!