The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Although locally common in oak scrublands, the Black-capped Vireo is a Federally-listed Endangered species. Its favored habitat is under siege from a host of threats: overgrazing, “weed” control, fire suppression, development, and brood parasitism by cowbirds. Audubon’s climate model shows huge growth—by 300+ percent—of suitable climate space for this vireo, but that result will likely not translate into an actual range expansion. Since the bulk of suitable climate space predicted by the model is centered in California coast, far from where the species occurs, it would be virtually impossible for this vireo to colonize that area. Of particular concern is that only 5 percent of currently suitable climate space for the Black-capped Vireo is considered by the model to be stable.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.