Since the release of Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 (EF2016) in January 2016, Canadian provinces and the Federal government have continued to adopt climate policies aimed at lowering GHG emissions. The figure below shows the declining fossil fuel demand projections that resulted from continued adoption and integration of Canadian climate policies. Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Update - Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 released in October 2016 projected 2040 fossil fuel demand to be 10.2% lower than in EF2016. In other words, future demand is expected to drop more than 10%, largely based on the policies implemented in less than a year. EF 2017 released in November 2017 projects fossil fuel demand to be 17.5% lower than Energy Futures 2016.

The Higher Carbon Price CaseFootnote 1 and Technology CaseFootnote 2 projections in EF 2017 show how climate policies and technologies could further reduce fossil fuel demand.

Changes across Energy Futures Reports in Canadian Fossil Fuel Use and Oil Production, in 2040

Footnote

Footnote 1

The Higher Carbon Price Case assumes that the price for carbon increases by $5/tonne per year after 2022, reaching $140/tonne by 2040 in nominal terms. In the Reference Case, the price for carbon is held at $50/tonne in nominal terms from 2022 to 2040. In the Higher Carbon Price Case, Brent Crude Oil reaches $75/bbl in 2040, while it reaches $80/bbl in the Reference Case (both in 2016 US dollars).

The Technology Case builds on the Higher Carbon Price Case. It considers the impact of greater adoption of select emerging energy technologies related to both production and consumption. In the Technology Case, Brent Crude Oil reaches $65/bbl (in 2016 US dollars) in 2040.

In 2040, Brent is assumed to be US$80/barrel in the EF2017 Reference Case, US$75 per barrel in the Higher Carbon Price Case, and US$65 per barrel in the Technology Case. In EFUpdate2016, Brent is assumed to reach US$90.25 per barrel in 2040, while in EF2016 Brent reaches US$107.04 per barrel.