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By Phil Kitromilides

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Mar 31, 2013 09:00:00

Our man in Madrid, Phil Kitromilides, believes the price of 4/5 for an Atletico victory offers excellent value given their superb form at home this season

Having lost their long unbeaten home record in their previous game at Vicente Calderon, Atletico Madrid will be extremely keen to get back to winning ways and Valencia's visit, in theory at least, looks like it could be an attractive encounter.

The two biggest clubs outside the top two have enjoyed varying degrees of success this season, with Atleti seemingly overachieving, while Valencia have been largely disappointing.

Four away wins all season is hardly inspiring from los Che, but those victories have come in their last six away matches, suggesting they are picking up some form on the road and the price 7/2 (4.50) offered by William Hill for a Valencian victory may appeal to some.

However, serious followers of Spanish football will know that the price of 4/5 (1.80) for an Atletico victory would appear to offer the genuine value in this game.

Prior to their slip up against Real Sociedad, Diego Simeone's men had won 14 successive league games at home, with the Rojiblancos brutally effective if not aethestically watchable in their own back yard.

And that is the crux of why Atleti have been so successful this season: they are one of the most efficient sides in the top flight, hard-working, well organized and ruthless.

Valencia, it could be argued, lack all of those traits. Their effectiveness in front of goal can certainly be called into question, with Ernesto Valverde's side often guilty of spurning great opportunities.

They lack a killer instinct - something Atletico possess in abundance, and this quality should serve punters who back a home win in good stead.

For a value bet, back Atletico to score exactly two goals at 9/4 (3.25), a selection which has paid out 10 times this season for los Colchoneros, including in their last game at Osasuna.