It's been a long time since I had to do any algebra, and nothing I've found on Google seems to be pitched at the right level for me. I'm looking to find a number for 'x' and a number for 'y' (consistant across these two equations):

(1/3) * (5/113) * (x/y) = 0.05

2/3 + ((1/3) * (5/113) * ((y-x)/y)) = 0.63

Can anyone please help me out? Thanks! (Worried)

May 14th 2010, 03:57 AM

Prove It

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dufus

It's been a long time since I had to do any algebra, and nothing I've found on Google seems to be pitched at the right level for me. I'm looking to find a number for 'x' and a number for 'y' (consistant across these two equations):

(1/3) * (5/113) * (x/y) = 0.05

2/3 + ((1/3) * (5/113) * ((y-x)/y)) = 0.63

Can anyone please help me out? Thanks! (Worried)

Is this a set of equations you need to solve simultaneously?

May 14th 2010, 04:00 AM

Dufus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prove It

Is this a set of equations you need to solve simultaneously?

Yes, x is the same in both equations and y is the same in both equations. (Nod)

May 14th 2010, 05:04 AM

Wilmer

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dufus

(1/3) * (5/113) * (x/y) = 0.05

HINT: above results in 100x = 339y

May 14th 2010, 06:31 AM

Dufus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilmer

HINT: above results in 100x = 339y

I appreciate the helpful nudge, but I'm getting more and more bogged down. Here's the rabbit hole I've followed from that:

And since we have (from 1st equation) x = 3.39y,
then ANY value can be assigned to y!

May 14th 2010, 09:54 AM

Wilmer

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dufus

There are 113 marbles in a jar. Five of them are red, the rest are blue.
There's a one in three chance you'll be selected to play the game.
If you are, then blindfolded, you shake the jar and draw one marble completely at random.
If it's blue, you keep it and the game is over.
If it's red, there's an [x/y] chance I'll let you keep it, or a [1-(x/y)] chance I'll make you put it back. Whether you get to keep it or not, the game is over.
I want there to be a 5% probability of you drawing a red marble and keeping it. So what should x and y be?

I must be missing something: but that makes no sense to me.
The probability of drawing a red is 5/113 ; that's a ~4.42% probability.
Whatever you do AFTER the draw will certainly not INCREASE that.

If you said "I want there to be a 3% probability.....", then we have:
(let k = x/y)
5k/113 = 3/100
k = 339/500

May 14th 2010, 10:15 AM

Soroban

Hello, Dufus!

Wilmer is absolutely correct.
There is still something terribly wrong with the problem . . .

Quote:

There are 113 marbles in a jar; 5 are red, the rest blue.

There's a one-in-three chance you'll be selected to play the game.

If you are, you draw one marble completely at random.

If it's blue, you keep it and the game is over.

If it's red, there's an chance that I'll let you keep it,. . and a chance I'll make you put it back.
Whether you get to keep it or not, the game is over.

I want there to be a 5% probability of you drawing a red marble and keeping it.
So what should and be?

To get a red marble and keep it, three events must occur:

. .

. .

. .

. . This is to be .

Hence, we have: . .??

. . A probability cannot be greater than 100%.

May 14th 2010, 11:06 AM

Dufus

I see your point.

No matter what x/y is (provided it's a probability, ie: y is greater than x), the result can never be greater than the multiplication of the first two fractions. The penny's dropped. (Nod)

So it's never going to reach 5%, even if, in the marbles analogy, you were allowed to keep the red marble every time you pulled one out of the jar. The maximum chance is still less than 1.5%. It's stupidly obvious really...

Well thank you everyone for your help and your patience with me. I'm sorry it's turned out to be such a wild goose chase! It has refreshed my memory a little on how this all works though, so it hasn't been a complete waste of time. Thanks again.