What’s the Installed Base of Plug-Ins?

Probably the biggest fear faced by anyone deploying a new streaming
technology is that potential viewers will walk away rather than load a
new plug-in. However, the extent of that risk relates to the content
being distributed. For example, if viewers want to watch Desperate
Housewives or need to view their latest biology lecture, they’ll
download the plug-in. On the other hand, if your video is titled
“The Top Five Reasons to Buy Our Widget,” the risk is much
more real.

No matter what your content, before choosing a technology you should
know the installed base of compatible plug-ins. So while researching
this story, I asked each company to specify just that. Adobe stated,
“Dynamic Steaming requires Flash Player 10 or later. As of March
2009, Flash Player 10 is at 74% penetration.” According to
third-party reports (sponsored by Adobe), Flash Player 9 was at 98.9%
penetration as of the same date. In my view, given the vast quantity of
Flash content on the internet and the historical penetration and
adoption of the player, it’s safe to assume that the vast
majority of these users would upgrade to the next Flash version if
necessary for dynamic streaming.

Figure 3.
Microsoft introduced Smooth Streaming for Silverlight in late 2008, but
it had already used the technology to deliver the 2008 Summer Olympics
in Beijing. Here’s a demo page for the 2010 Winter Olympics in
Vancouver.

Microsoft responded, “Silverlight has been downloaded and
installed on more than 400 million consumer PCs. Currently, 1 in 3
consumers worldwide have access to a computer with Silverlight
technology already installed.” According to the latest statistics
from Gartner, Inc., there are about 1.2 billion computers in the world,
which puts Microsoft at around 33% penetration. Note that this is for
all installed Silverlight players, including v1, which doesn’t
support smooth streaming. But again, once viewers download one version
of Silverlight, they’ll likely upgrade if necessary to view
additional Silverlight content.

Move Networks reported 70 million total installations, with 100,000
downloads a day. Based upon the 70 million number, the installed base
is around 5.8%.

Apple’s announcement was more recent (June 2009), and though
distribution for iPhones seems straightforward (adaptive bitrate
streaming is supported in iPhone OS 3.0), the strategy for general
computer playback is murky. It appears that you’ll need the
QuickTime X player to view adaptive bitrate streams, and that will only
be available in Snow Leopard, the next version of OS X scheduled for
release in the summer of 2009. Unfortunately, Apple didn’t
respond to my inquiries regarding its new technology, including whether
it would be made available for previous versions of OS X or Windows.

Figure 4.
In June 2009, Apple joined the party with the anouncement of adaptive
bitrate streaming over HTTP for iPhones, as well as in the new
QuickTime X, due later this year.

However, according to John Bishop, senior vice president of business
development and strategy for Inlet Technologies, who was briefed by
Apple, Apple announced no plans for a Windows version of any
adaptive-bitrate-streaming-compatible player or a backward-compatible
player for previous versions of OS X. Obviously, this doesn’t
mean that Apple won’t ship a Windows player next week, but until
the company delineates a strategy that will lead to significant
penetration within the installed base of Mac and Windows computers, the
Apple solution seems relevant primarily for iPhones.

How Does the Technology Fit Within Your Current Video Distribution Platform?

Whatever
technology you choose, it’s important to remember that adaptive
bitrate streaming is a discrete feature of your total media offering.
Certainly, it’s possible to job out the video streaming function
entirely, which is the typical strategy used by Move Networks’
clients.

On the other hand, once you commit to a platform—be it Flash,
Silverlight, or any other—you invest in the technology and the
personnel that create and support it. Perhaps as the adaptive bitrate
streaming technologies evolve, significant differences in quality or
cost may become apparent. However, even then, any decision relating to
adaptive bitrate streaming must also factor in the other unique
attributes of the overall platform and the costs of switching from one
to another.