The nine-bout card is headlined by a heavyweight clash between
Roy
Nelson and Antonio
Rodrigo Nogueira. Neither fighter is in contention for a title,
but the possibility of a haymaker knockout from “Big Country” or a
Hail Mary submission from “Minotauro” makes this a scrap worth
watching nonetheless. In addition, longtime Japanese standout
Tatsuya
Kawajiri looks to capture his second Octagon triumph against
the well-traveled Clay Guida in
the featherweight co-main event.

Heavyweights

The Matchup: After so many years and so many wars
inside the cage, one has to wonder what keeps Nogueira going. Now
37 years old with an accomplished career behind him, “Minotauro”
has little to prove in MMA. At this point, perhaps the only
motivation the decorated Brazilian needs is love of sport. Nelson,
meanwhile, saw his brief flirtation with title contention meet an
abrupt end thanks to lopsided decision losses to Stipe
Miocic and Daniel
Cormier in his last two outings. Realistically, Nelson lacks
the diversity and the gas tank to beat the heavyweight division’s
best, but his portly frame and knockout power continue to make him
a cult hero.

Despite their recent struggles, Nogueira and Nelson are often still
regarded among the best 15 heavyweights in the world -- a testament
to the lack of new talent infiltrating the division. Considering
their popularity, it is hard to classify this as a do-or-die
situation for the loser. However, the winner gets to retain some
type of ranking relevance.

Although Nogueira has been lauded for his boxing skill over the
years, standing and trading with “Big Country” is a sure recipe for
disaster. This is partly because the Brazilian’s hands are somewhat
overrated. Other than a nice jab, “Minotauro” leaves plenty to be
desired on the feet: His footwork is slow, his head movement is
lacking and he is consistently hittable. His only two career
knockout losses have come within the last six years -- a sign that
age and punishment are taking their toll.

Nelson is not going to reinvent the wheel with his standup, but he
possesses a rare brand of knockout power that can put most anyone
to sleep. The problem: Nelson’s ability to win via knockout usually
expires within five minutes, as all but one of his victories in the
Octagon have occurred inside of a round. After that, Nelson
struggles with cardio issues, and while his overhand right remains
willing in rounds two and three, he is often left swinging at air.
This is not to say that Nelson is not capable of expanding his
arsenal. He landed a nice three-punch combination to knock out
Matt
Mitrione at “The Ultimate Fighter 16” Finale and will rely on
one-two combinations to close distance when he is interested in
forcing the clinch.

However, his greatest success has stemmed from the home run shot,
so it is not difficult to see why he has fallen in love with it. To
avoid being starched, Nogueira should look to tire out Nelson by
moving into tie-up range and working dirty boxing against the
fence. The former
Pride Fighting Championships titleholder lacks the wrestling
ability to land takedowns consistently, but he has proven
repeatedly that he is crafty at getting the fight where he wants it
on the ground. Nogueira’s willingness to work from half guard,
where he is adept at sweeping into advantageous positions, works
well against less-experienced grapplers, but Nelson is a Brazilian
jiu-jitsu black belt. “Big Country” is not one to actively pursue
submissions, but he can be suffocating from above when he elects to
pursue that route.

The Pick: Seven of Nogueira’s last eight UFC bouts
have ended inside the distance -- including all four defeats -- but
his best chance at victory would be to drag Nelson into deep
waters. All the wear and tear plus the deterioration of his skills
make that a tall task. Nelson wins by KO or TKO within two
rounds.