Nile Gardiner is a Washington-based foreign affairs analyst and political commentator. A former aide to Margaret Thatcher, Gardiner has served as a foreign policy adviser to two US presidential campaigns. He appears frequently on American and British television, including Fox News Channel, BBC, and Fox Business Network.

Over the weekend I wrote a piece on how some liberal elites, not least at The New York Times, remain in denial over the scale of the disaster the Left is facing at the polls in November. Well, I hope they’re taking a close look today at the latest Gallup poll, which is enough to make any White House adviser weep.

Gallup’s new survey of more than 3,000 adults, including over 2,700 registered voters (1,800 of whom are highly likely to vote), shows Republicans with “a double-digit advantage” under two separate scenarios – lower and higher turnout. Under the higher turnout scenario, the GOP lead is 13 percentage points, while under the lower turnout scenario it is even higher, at 18 points:

Gallup has modeled a lower turnout estimate (40%, typical for recent midterm elections) and a higher turnout estimate. In both cases, the Republican share of the vote is above 50% and the Democratic share is 40% or less, underscoring the strong position in which the GOP would find itself were the election held today.

Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010. It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well.

…. Based on statistical modeling of the historical relationship between the national vote and seats, any situation in which the Democrats have less than about 47% of the actual two-party national vote for Congress (i.e., 53% voting for the Republicans and 47% for the Democrats among those voting for one of the two parties) would strongly predict that Republicans would win enough seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If there is a widely disproportionate skew in turnout toward Republican voters and their national vote lead ends up being in the double digits, the Republican gains would be very substantial.

How substantial could GOP gains be based on the Gallup numbers? According to Michael Barone, arguably America’s most influential election analyst, those gains could be the biggest since 1946, 1928 or even 1894, let alone 1994. As Barone notes in a piece for The Washington Examiner:

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.

Barone cautions that Gallup’s numbers “tend to be volatile”, and points out that “polling theory tells us that at least one out of 20 polls is simply wrong, that is, the results differ from what you would get from interviewing the entire population by more than the margin of error.”

But he concludes by declaring that “we do keep seeing poll results from surprising districts that tend to support the Gallup results,” including races in North Carolina and Minnesota.

If Gallup’s poll prove correct on November 2nd, which of course remains nearly a month away, the scale of the Republican victory will be absolutely huge. There is no doubt about it – Gallup’s latest survey is explosive, and points to history in the making for the latest conservative revolution to hit America.