Pachter: Zero Percent Chance Sony Will Show PlayStation 4 At E3 2012

There’s been a lot of Internet buzz of late regarding an MCV story that states that both Sony and Microsoft will show off PlayStation 4 and the next Xbox at E3 2012 this June in Los Angeles. But according to videogame analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, that’s not going to happen.

GamesCom is massive and most of Sony's sales are Europe based, so it could be GamesCom. Although I'm sure they want to get some of the American market back and no better way to do that than showing the new console at E3... Did I just have an argument with myself?

First of all, relevant persons in the industry such as Mark Rein have clearly indicated we won't see any new console from Sony or MS until near or on 2014. Why announce two years out?

Second, Sony isn't going to overshadow the launch of the Vita with a PS4 announcement.

Third, why should Sony or MS announce when both are still showing growth with their current console. Nintendo well realized they were in for a slide and moved to interdict with the Wii U.

Certain websites that are using hit tactics to gain clicks by stating they have proof positive of new console announcements from Sony or MS in 2012 would do well to remember that they can delete the story from their own website but the proof of their tactics and poor fortune telling skills is out on the internet for an eternity.

To update an old Japanese proverb for the 21st century, "Stories, once posted, are beyond the hooves of even the fleetest of horses."

I think MS will show the Xbox 720 at E3, and I'll bet that Sony releases a year later again which I'm ok with. If the PS4 releases in 2014, then I won't be buying one until 2015 after the price has dropped.

Micrsoft WILL announce at this year's E3, and actually show up at next years E3 with finalized specs, launch games etc.

It is January 2012..the Next box will launch November 2013...do the math that is still almost 2 years from launch at this point and a year and a half AFTER this years E3.

Micrsoft will NOT miss holiday 2013 just to launch for holiday 2014, it literally makes no sense. That would push them to almost 3 years from now. The 360 WILL be almost 10 years and Sony will then have the luxury of launching head to head.

Pachter was dead wrong with Nintendo and dead wrong about the 360. Micrsoft loses no money with an announcement, but it will the rug from Nintendo's feet as there are many people and developers who will take a wait and see approach.

I'm pretty sure the next Xbox and PlayStation will be announced at E3. That still puts the launch nearly two years away. It would be idiotic for either MS or Sony to sit back and give Wii U a two year head start and risk another console launching ahead of them in 2013.

Even though Sony should focus on the Vita, a Wii U blowout would steal a lot of attention. MS, who has had pretty lame showings in recent years, will undoubtedly use the next Xbox to try to steal the Wii U's thunder. Whether Sony announces a PS4 or not, Vita will be overshadowed. Sony might as well announce it come out swinging rather than risk playing catch-up.

@ Kevin Butler, no its not needed (no video game is, they are just a want) but for those of us who have had PS3's for over 6 years it would be welcomed. Not sure if your a late adopter or not but I hear this a lot from people who haven't had a PS3 very long, but there's a reason late adopters wait, and that is price for most. What you have to realize is if you are a late adopter because of price then a PS4 release soon would benefit you since it'll drop to $199 or so by the time your ready to upgrade.

Sorry but there just not gonna announce it at e3 to soon for sony.And i dont see Microsoft announcing xbox at e3 but i do see it announcing it after the holidays,like a month or two after halo 4 or some gaming event where people announce stuff that's after halo 4 release date.I think Microsoft will announce there xbox maybe almost a year earlier than sony

while ps3 still have a bit of power, to make games like last of us, maybe god of war 4(which should be at least 2 times better than god of war 3), and a few other great games, xbox, with forza 4, gear 3, halo, and a few more exclusives, people, and studios need to admit that there's little power left. would they be able to make a gear of war 4, that would be better than 3 ? i don't think so.

all exclusive games on xbox have showed the maximum the console can give. even if there's still a little power left, i don't think they can handle 2 years, with that hardware.

i think studios desperately need a new xbox. the same with ps3, even if there's still great games announced, i don't think we will see any other killzone 4, or little big planet 3, or infamous 3, on the ps3. there is little power left, really, guys.

like i said in other posts, ps4 and x720 will be ready well sooner than one can think.

sony won't make the same error again, and release a console 1 year after microsoft.

microsoft won't let sony invade the market one year before them, probably with some kinect-like stuff.

i guess all depends on how wii-u will perform. in any cases, both sony and microsoft won't announce nothing, until.. the other do it.

since microsoft really needs a new system, i guess they will announce it this year, even before E3, so they can grab all the attention, at E3.

so, whenever someone announces his console, the other will do the same, and will announce 1 or 2 months before.

one thing is sure: at Christmas 2013, ps4 and x720 will be available. for Christmas 2012, that depends who will announce something, this year.

they both have the hardware, they have a lot of experience with both ps3 and xbox, they know how to make a new console, how to make it developer-friendly, and how to make it cheap, for everyone. microsoft have had 6 years to develop the new xbox, and ps3, they have cell factories ready to produce cell processors, which should, normally, be the cpu used on ps4.

hardware costs much less than 6 years ago, and they don't need 5 years in R&D to bring a new console. just make a more powerfull ps3, with more ram, a good graphic card and a better bluray drive. for microsoft, just use hddvds,or some sdhc/xc cards, if you don't want to pay for royalties, on blu-ray. a game on a 64gb sd cards could be a good option.a 32gb sdhc card is quite cheap. in 3 years, you need more space? just use 64 or 128gb sdxc cards, they will be cheap. no dvd, no bluray, no hddvd, sd cards could be an option, for x720.

so, honestly, even if you are going to disagree, i wouldn't be surprised if we were playing uncharted 4 or halo 6, in less than 12 months, on our ps4 or x720.

remember, at e3, when microsoft announced the xbox slim? nobody was expecting that bomb. so yes, our favorite consoles may be here sooner than we all think...

Sony promised 10 years for every console and still comes out with PS2 games. Although I know they said they do not want to be as late this coming generation they will not rush and I am sure would show it at either TGS or be willing to make their own event to show it and focus on showing PS3 games and PS Vita

Well, Pachter has better things to do than comment on videogames industry just for the fun of it. Hes a business analyst. Hes been asked a question and he answered it. Its not like hes commenting on games out of his passion. He is not much of a gamer, as far as I know.

I think that the next Xbox and PS will be announced this year. Xbox has clearly slowed down, and are now only focusing on Kinect and Xbox 720. Sony did say they won't leave the competition with too much time left alone in the market like they did with PS3. Even though we might not need a new console, it's coming anyways. Wii U looks promising but not truly next gen graphics/power. Xbox and PS4 can wait a year after Wii U launches in Holiday 2012. If they wait longer than one year, I'll be surprised.

@ Father Murder X Please give me some facts about how MS is doing better than Sony and Nintendo right now.... List me some exclusives and some features that they're doing. I'm paying $50 a year and it still has no web browser.... Kinect is doing fine but no support for other exclusives.

Because many folk seem to also think that Sony and Microsoft will not unveil their new systems this E3 but maybe at next E3.

However as before if Microsoft was to announce new hardware at E3 it will be launched the same year just a few months i.e. E3 in July, new console in Nov/Dec of the same year as they did with the 360.

However Microsoft could end up suprising everyone with a new console announcement, however I dont think Sony will until later on which then they will probably try to release a console with more ram in order to do better than Microsoft.

I can't understand these stories of a new gen right now or next year.. still enjoy both and still great games to come for the next couple of years.. ..are you already bored with your gaming system...?? ..do you want to spend 6/7/800 $ for a new one....?? ..madness..

and also for developers.. this gen it's already very very.. very... expensive.. many of them they're already in bad situations.. ..not the moment yet to invest other money to develop on new machines....

i don't have anything against a early ps4 announcment..but tbh if sony annonce ps4 tihs year they are stupid..the vita is doing bad enough.. putting ppl of it with a ps4 announce ment would not do any good for the vita..so unless they wanna make their new handheld in a early shadow they will make a wise decision to w8 until 2013 at earliest.

Problems with this article: 1. They quoted Michael Pachter, he's practically wrong about everything related to consoles 2. Pachter misinterpreted the '10 year life cycle' as meaning there won't be a successor until almost 10 years after the PS3 launch. Even though it's obvious that Sony will support the PS3 like it did with the PS2 well after the console generation 3. It's not even speculation. Nothing like this has a '0% chance'...

A lot of people misinteroret the 10 year life cycle of the consoles. This does'nt mean sony and Microsoft will wait until their current consoles are ten years old. It means they will support the consoles for ten years or longer.

There are reports from multiple websites stating that very reliable anonymous sources have said that both these consoles will be announced this year. I'm by no means taking this as confirmation, but I'm putting more stock in that the inane ramblings of Michael Pachter. Almost all of his predictions turn out to be wrong. He just states that new consoles won't release until 2014 as if it is fact, giving no reason or logic to back up that statement.

MS has a way greater chance of announcing something than Sony, how many years can MS release a sub par Kinect commercial? Its obvious MS has really nothing going on since the launch of Kinect. The Last of us, Twisted Metal, Star Hawk, a new Sly game a rumored Syphon filter and a new God Of War? Plus PlayStation Vita support through out the year. Sony is known for getting a lot done let alone multitasking but trying to support 1st party games, the handheld and announce the PlayStation 4? Sony would explode lol.

with games that look like uncharted 3 and the last of us and whatever else is still in the making for ps3 i still dont see what they are going to bring out a ps4 for especially if what ive seen the best of pc and thats all theyll be able to achieve, cause far as im concerned ps3s exclusives still look like the best games period

I agree completely. I have all the systems and an Alienware pc that runs battlefield on max no problem. Comparing that with Uncharted 3 or the upcoming The Last of Us I still am more impressed with the ps3 games. The only thing developers seem to be missing out on is pushing true 1080p on those games.

Sony still has a longer list of first party franchises. YOu can miss out on a lot of sony only games if you don't buy the next ps.

But the next xbox? you miss out on halo, forza and fable. outside of some ok titles like alan wake, gears has shown signs of slowing down and all other ms exclusives have been pretty much duds compared to what microsoft promotes.

Outside of xbox loyalty or halo loyalty..

Why get the next xbox over the next playstation if they will be identical in hardware and third party support?

Online will be better and more on par with xbox live.

While kinect is great hardware, A stronger playstation camera like kinect with move controllers beats a just kinect only gaming without move/wiimotes.

Sony only really has one problem next gen. And its a big problem. When the ps4 and xbox 3 are announced and on par in every way, the fanboys teeth will begin to show.

websites with no info or proof will band together to shout sony doom and gloom. Think about it, when the xbox 360 was announced they shouted doom and gloom even before the pricing of the ps3 was announced. some got excited about wireless controllers even though sony already had them bia third party, and the best 360 games outside of halo/gears were sony third party exclusives that went multi platform.

Fanboy Blogs are going to ruin next gen. I think its time to start not going to fanboy websites, including n4g. N4G could be really great if it grew up and got serious.

Look at the recent xboxworld site, throwing out random nonsense game comparisons of what console is jealous of what games. Mind you outside of halo/gears/forza/fable there were just kinect games, lol. Poor delusional website. ps gamers don't care about its own shooters so it doesn't want halo or gears. PS gamers have Gran Turismo so they don't want forza. And sony has a stable of rpgs coming to psn from ps2/psp era and new ones coming to vita, so you can forget fable. Kinect is nice alone but a kinect clone (which sony has had in R&D since before natal was announced) with move controllers and even vita as a controller could beat kinect game wise. all that's left is fanboyism.

I just got into the gears series this past gears game. And a bunch of my friends who been playing since the first one told me the same thing. That gears slowed down. They said not as many people played it as much because cross game chat killed it. Idk if he's right I like playing. Some days the number of players seems kind of light with as little as a thousand playing. But the developers support this game pretty good do I'm cool.