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Pac-12 Awards

I hope to flesh out this post a little bit more later, but to inform my selections on Pac-12 end-of-season awards, I went through and ran my NBA rating system (WARP) strictly for conference games. The ratings for everyone in the conference are below. One unfortunate note: the Pac-12 site hadn’t yet updated for last night’s games, so Cal, Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State stats are based on 17 games. Adjust accordingly.

Player of the Year: Devoe Joseph, Oregon
Briefly, I think this is a complete tossup and you could make a case for about a half-dozen people. The one big question the stats raise is why Jorge Gutierrez gets so much more credit for Cal’s success than Allen Crabbe, who puts up Terrence Ross-like stats on a good team with minimal hype. I value Gutierrez’s contributions, but don’t overlook Crabbe.

Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Oregon
Most of the commentary on this pick has gone along the lines of “Altman’s teams didn’t exceed expectations as much as others” (Tad Boyle and Lorenzo Romar, notably). I don’t know exactly when Coach of the Year evolved into “Coach who beat preseason projections by the most of the Year,” but it’s past time for that to stop. Sometimes we were just wrong. I had Colorado 11th in the Pac-12. I was wrong. I didn’t know the team well enough coming from the Big 12, and didn’t realize how good the Buffaloes’ incoming freshman guards were. (More on that in a moment.) I think both Boyle and Romar had fine seasons (you know my feelings on Romar, the actual winner), but if I had to pick a coach to lead my team based on their performance this specific season, it would be Altman. In a sense, Altman is penalized in terms of expectations for doing such a good job in his first season in Eugene. Part of the reason Oregon was picked fifth in the conference was because the Ducks dramatically overachieved last year, in large part due to Altman’s arrival.

Freshman of the Year: Tony Wroten, Washington
A no-brainer pick, really. Player of the Year would have been a bit of a stretch for Wroten–Ross was, to me, the Huskies’ most valuable player–but for a freshman Wroten was terrific and every bit as good as advertised if not better.

Defensive Player of the Year: Andre Roberson, Colorado
Another Gutierrez pick in reality. The best defensive guard cannot possibly have as much impact on the game as the best defensive big man. Roberson is an elite rebounder and shot blocker who also generated steals more frequently than Gutierrez. Enjoy this man before he bolts for the NBA.

Most Improved Player: Brock Motum, Washington State
Motum’s development from fringe big man to the best in the conference has truly been remarkable.

I fully expected Nick Johnson to make it, too, before I started the process. Wroten, Dinwiddie and Randle were a cut above everyone else as successful freshman starters. Kravish was one of the conference’s most efficient scorers. That leaves Booker, who apparently didn’t even get any votes for the team. When I watched Colorado play, Booker was as important to the team’s success as anyone on the roster. His ability to penetrate made the Buffalo attack much more dangerous. Really, though, this last spot is about how you value non-conference play vis-a-vis conference play for postseason awards, since Johnson was at his best in November and December and Booker came on as soon as Pac-12 play began.

Their stats were generally similar, with the exception of Travis blocking shots about five times more frequently. (He also had a lower turnover rate and slightly higher usage, which explains the difference.) What’s bizarre is that David was the marginally better shot blocker at UNC.

Love the advanced stats and the fact that you didn’t pick Gutierrez for both. Will never get that decision by them, but the voters never get it right anyway. Crabbe is better than Gutierrez, and win shares helps prove that point. Gutierrez is the most overrated player in the conference.