000
FXUS64 KAMA 070848
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020
.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Night...
High pressure continues to shift east with south to southwest flow
aloft over the Panhandles. Downslope winds will continue to keep
temperatures hot and dry today and Monday. With windy conditions
and pretty dry fuels, the Panhandles will be dealing with Fire
Weather issues (See Fire Weather Discussion). There is a somewhat
dryline setup over the Panhandles on Monday. East of the dryline
looks pretty capped and therefore only keeping a 10 pop across the
eastern Panhandles. If a storm manages to break the cap it will
likely go severe as CAPE values look to exceed 1500 J/kg. Hail and
wind would be the main threat. Inverted V soundings look to favor
the wind a bit more.
Monday night, upper leveltrof moving down from the Pac NW will
swing across the Panhandles, with strong north winds behind it.
Possible highlights might be needed Tuesday for the strong north
winds. Highs on Tuesday look to be in the low 80s, which is still
warm, but much cooler given the highs near 100 as of lately. Highs
over Wednesday and Thursday will continue to bring temperatures
back up, with Thursday, Friday, and Saturday`s highs back up into
the mid 90s and possibly touching 100.
Weber
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...
South winds continue again today with a lee surface low setting up
over SE Colorado. Increased pressure gradients along with dry
downsloping air will lead to elevated and critical Fire Weather
conditions. Winds today will be a bit stronger than yesterday as
a stronger jet will be aloft and will aid in higher wind gust
potential. Right now gusts look to be around 45 mph.
Similar setup on Monday but the winds will not be as strong,
however, conditions will still be very dry with RH values possibly
lower than 10 percent. Monday night will have a wind shift with a
cold front and strong winds out of the north can be expected. If
there are any active fires Monday night the wind shift will be
important to track.
Tuesday could be an elevated day as the winds will still continue
out of the north. RFTI`s might be capped due to higher RH, but
watching to see if we might need wind highlights for Tuesday, this
could certainly pose an issue for any new starts.
While confidence is low there is a slight chance of storms across
the Panhandles on Friday.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Main story will be strong south winds 20-30kts with gusts
up to 40kts possible. Gusts should start to pick up after 18z and
will stay up for 6 to 9 hours. Winds expected to come down a bit
after 02z, but will still be around 15kts out of the south for the
remainder of the TAF period. Not much expected for cloud cover,
just few high clouds or clear skies.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 93 67 99 59 80 / 0 0 5 0 0
Beaver OK 96 68 101 60 80 / 0 0 10 5 0
Boise City OK 96 65 97 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 5
Borger TX 98 70 103 61 84 / 0 0 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 98 68 102 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 93 65 98 58 81 / 0 0 5 0 0
Clarendon TX 93 68 98 63 83 / 0 0 10 0 0
Dalhart TX 97 65 97 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 97 68 101 55 79 / 0 0 5 0 5
Hereford TX 96 66 100 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 96 69 100 62 82 / 0 0 5 0 0
Pampa TX 94 68 99 60 81 / 0 0 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 94 68 98 65 85 / 0 0 5 0 0
Wellington TX 95 68 99 66 88 / 0 0 5 0 0
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red FlagWarning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
Hartley...Oldham.
OK...Red FlagWarning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Cimarron.
&&
$$
89/89