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1/7/2014 10:44AM

Hulbert: Playing the Early January Odds

The Dow fell on the first day of the year. And it’s been down through the first three. To some, these are worrying harbingers for the year. Mark Hulbert says you might as well flip a coin. Photo: Getty Images.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

... in due ... the Dow fell on the first day of the year in a can see right there it's been around up here so far ... gone the first and the edged down to the first three days in the year ... so today but to some ... these are worrying Harbinger is for the entire year ... which should you really sell ... now just because of what you've seen in the first couple of days ... Mark Albers as my as well flip a coin an e joins us to talk about this ... more I can only write about the son of like to be allowed to fall the stuff the first day indicator that three days upon days the first month ... how valid are these things though ... but it's interesting I think the best way of summarizing what it ... is the difference between what they call statistical significance on the one hand ... and economic or investment significance on the other ... if we learned the first is that it isn't a given as there are ways of slicing and icing the data in which you see that there is some statistical validity to the notion that what Martin doesn't the first day of the first bite into what any does have some slight correlation with the market's direction as a whole ... but it turns out that even though it's reduced odds of success of the market going up when the market is down in the first couple days ... is still ... at least half the time that's where we get acquainted with analogy you mention in the interim there is that ... even sounds can be quite so as far to ... say he shouldn't change in the view that the continent there ... is a reduced likelihood ... of them are going up but still pretty a decent chance at least fifty percent while the higher the market still going up this year so ... if you can get these teeny Iznurov are trying to scratch the skin leads to greater extent than a minute and a forty meeting anyway ... I wouldn't say that we are to be making any changes to any that ... the Dow's up about a hundred twenty today the market a rebounding after these first couple of ... of down days ... look twenty thirteen was a big year for the market all that none of the trends of Chianti that friends don't just change the calendar changes dates ... how much of the litany should you really put into one day of trading ... well I guess that is the Christ is a great question it turned out that ... every day as it is is not seen evidence is another effect what I'd ... like to Iranian calendar to see if they had ... some of the symmetrical forecasting ability of the new look for predict where the money would be three and sixty four days later and it turns out that a number of days of the calendar due to this a core quote ability is not ... used to regenerate ... that is that the market ... on Sunday that the market goes down but we should be paying any more attention than winning at a time when I wanted to begin in general why are we saying the first five days of our ... first bought it in November ... something is ... odd about investor psychology is on the year were immediately were primed to draw conclusions ... when I think it's of course is that it's way too premature ... right now what is on the market is down to January to the whole first month of the year ... would you then start thinking to me this a little more statistical odds that the euro began ... well age and it turned out they any time the market is down for the month that's not a good thing it suggests that perhaps that more than just a DNA volatility is showing up in in in the produce market ... but again I don't see that there's anything special about January ... yes there are ways to slice and dice in the data may generate look alot better but it turns out interesting when out ... if you if you have to axe glued to the decade in the nineteen thirties ... in order to make it a particularly strong ... case in the decade the authorities an owner of an explanation for this ... genuinely universe project which is to say that whenever the market was up that decade ... more often than not the market was down for the next eleven months and vice versa so ... it turns out that ... if you want a quiet please go ahead but why was it was basically saying look the other thing is you look at a time of the year and ... now a special attention is because of the month of January ... then I Mark Albers good stuff as always thank you very much ... most of our thinking