mgo.licio.us

"The face of the operation is Briatore (referred to exclusively in the film by his colleagues and angry, chanting detractors as "Flavio"), an anthropomorphic radish who spends most of his time at QPR plotting to fire all of the managers."

At press time, Harbaugh had sent Michigan’s athletic department an envelope containing a heavily annotated seating chart, a list of the 63,000 seat views he had found unsatisfactory, and a glowing 70-page report on section 25, row 12, seat 9, which he claimed is “exactly what the great sport of football is all about.”

The Essentials

Note: I'm sick of qualifying "last two games" because Delaware State is in there and obviously doesn't matter. For the duration of this preview, the Baby Seal U game is assumed to not exist.

Run Offense vs. Illinois

Though Michigan has fallen off a bit from their ridiculous start, they've done well in the last two games, and they did that against good run defenses. Iowa is currently #44. Penn State is #4. Michigan put up 195 yards against Iowa with Minor racking up 95 on just 22 carries. Against Penn State Michigan did well but for five Forcier sacks, which have been excised from the below numbers:

#

Player

No

Gain

Loss

Net

TD

Avg

Long

4

Brandon Minor

12

48

0

48

1

4

8

5

Tate Forcier

9

41

5

36

0

4

12

16

Denard Robinson

4

20

0

20

0

5

7

20

Michael Shaw

1

0

1

-1

0

-1

0

23

Carlos Brown

8

42

7

35

0

4.4

17

Totals

34

151

8

143

1

That's 4.2 yards per carry against a team that's currently giving up 3.4 to the rest of the world. (Penn State's got 26 sacks for 155 yards on the year, which hugely distorts the numbers. Including those, PSU is giving up 2.6 YPC!) That, more than anything that's occurred against Baby Seal U, indicates that Michigan's got a ground game that's for real. At this point it's established. People on the internet and the radio are begging for more running plays. It's a good rushing offense even without David Molk.

On the other side of the ball, Illinois is atrocious. They're 101st in rushing defense. Various abominations put forth this year:

Team

Carries

Yards

TDs

YPC

Ohio State

46

236

2

5.1

Penn State

40

338

5

8.5

Michigan State

45

193

2

4.3

Indiana

31

149

0

4.8

Purdue

39

220

3

5.6

Yikes, eh? Every Big Ten opponent Illinois has faced has gashed them, with Michigan State the only team not to approach five yards a carry. When Mike Rothstein took a look at the Indiana game he came away thoroughly unimpressed, emphasis mine:

-Illinois run defense is unimpressive. Indiana ran right at the Illini’s front four with success, getting a lot of the push with the offensive line.

-The Illini front four also didn’t appear to pressure Ben Chappell much. They’d send four a lot and Chappell had plenty of time to sit in the pocket and throw quick seven-yard passes.

-Illinois really struggled when Indiana brought Mitchell Evans in to run the Wildcat (which usually leads to Evans running). Makes you wonder that if Denard Robinson can hold on to the ball, how much Michigan might be able to use him.

-Illinois’ cornerbacks are unimpressive. They gave a lot of cushion early on, but eventually pressed a little bit.

Ha ha ha, losers

-Illinois’ defense is a lot like Michigan’s. There seems to be a soft hole in the middle of the Illinois defense, much like the Wolverines.

Awwww, hamburgers. But for this section, at least, that's good news: Illinois is flat terrible and is going up against a running offense considerably better than those of certain teams that have crushed them. Michigan should average at least five yards a carry; the Denard Robinson Experience should be extremely effective; I want Michigan to run the ball on 80% of first downs until such point as it's obvious that's not a good idea or it's time to screw around.

Brandon Minor is slightly hurt, as he always has been and always will be, but will be available; this is a game in which Shaw and Smith will get some cracks, too.

Key Matchup: HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL. If Michigan just keeps pounding at Illinois, they've demonstrated that they will crack, Molk or no.

Pass Offense vs. Illinois

Illinois is also terrible here. Whee! They can't get to the quarterback: they're 112th in sacks. They can't defend it when it's passed: they're 91st in pass efficiency defense. They are almost mediocre in terms of yards but that's an effect of the rush defense being so bad and Illinois being so bad and everyone just running all the time.

I mean, there's not that much else to say. Ben Chappell went 23/38 for 333 yards and three touchdowns. Terrelle Pryor threw twice in the first half. These two items suggest about all you need to know about Illinois's pass defense: when you have to, you can slice and dice it. You probably won't have to.

The non-Chappell numbers can not make this any clearer:

Player

Att

Cmp

Yards

TD-Int

YPA

Rating

Terrelle Pryor

13

8

82

1-0

6.3

139.9

Daryll Clark

25

17

175

0-0

7.0

126.8

Keith Nichol

25

13

179

0-1

7.2

104.1

Joey Elliott

24

15

166

0-0

6.9

120.6

If you are not Terrelle Pryor you will throw 25 times a game with some uninspiring final yardage numbers, a YPA around 7, and no touchdowns because you just run 'em in. End of story. Illinois likes to lay back and play it safe, because the alternative is the Missouri game.

Michigan's passing offense has bogged down in a big way against two of the best pass defenses in the country the past two weeks. Pass protection has been a major issue. So have drops. And poor decisions from the quarterback. And questionable penalties. Virtually anything that can be going wrong with a passing game has been doing so for Michigan of late.

Things figure to improve against Illinois. That sacks number indicates that Michigan shouldn't have nearly as much trouble holding a pocket together against the Illini as they did against their last three real opponents, which should give whoever's in it some time to come off a first read and hit a second. We'll see if said passer actually takes that opportunity instead of running around like crazy. Probably not, if I had to guess. In any case, Illinois is going to give Michigan a lot of soft coverage because they don't have an alternative, and Forcier should find open guys for short gains when Michigan bothers to pass, which won't be often.

Key Matchup: Forcier versus his tendency to run around. This is a game in which he should be able to stick in the pocket.

Run Defense vs. Illinois

This is the one thing other than waterskiing…

…Illinois is not terrible at. This is largely because of the presence of Juice Williams and his crazy ninja ballfakes. Illinois's rushing game is a crazy reflection of Michigan's. They run a ton of zone option stuff but they run a lot of veer plays where everyone blocks down on the line, leaving the playside DE open as the RB tries to get outside; Williams reads that guy and makes a decision. Illinois likes this for a couple reasons:

Juice Williams is an excellent runner who can make significant yards on this up the middle, and

their offensive line is a disaster and down-blocking a bunch of guys is way easier than attempting to stretch them a la Michigan.

They will like it even more against Michigan because it will allow them to not block Brandon Graham. Illinois isn't going to block Brandon Graham whether or not they're trying to; on this play Illinois will be prepared for it. Expect to see a lot of guys tackling RBs without the ball.

You might remember Michigan getting shredded by this last year. Or you might have forgotten it all in an alcoholic haze. (They… they were the lucky ones.) There are a couple reasons to think Michigan will improve this go around. Most of the coaching staff has seen it, the offensive line is a lot worse and less of a threat to do anything else, and Michigan's not trying to get away with a really slow OLB.

However, you are probably thinking "this does not fix our bighuge problem at middle linebacker," and that is accurate. Michigan is still vulnerable to overpursuit from the linebackers and crippling errors from the safety and most visions of this game include one or two agonizing long runs from Illinois when someone blows an assignment.

When Charest comes in, Michigan should crush the ground game. Given this offensive line, Brandon Graham, and the rest of the Michigan defensive line there will be limited opportunities for any of Illinois' mediocre running backs to create yards without serious errors from Michigan's linebackers. Which there will be. So chalk up a 10 or 20 yarder or two with Charest in, interspersed with a lot of nothing.

Key Matchup: Ezeh and Mouton versus Williams. Williams is the big play threat and he will create big plays by convincing one of our erratic linebackers to tackle a guy without a ball or, like last year, convincing two.

Pass Defense vs. Illinois

Michigan has demonstrated that there is plenty of vulnerability in their secondary, but Illinois seems singularly incapable of taking advantage of it. Again, the terrible offensive line combines with confused, inaccurate quarterbacks to create a sort of crazy magic: Illinois is 112th in sacks allowed, 110th in passing efficiency, and 101st in passing yardage. They are terrible. This is how terrible: backup quarterback Eddie McGee got to start the Michigan State game and went 2 of 11 with a pick-six before getting yanked and is now a wide receiver.

The Not Juice du jour is redshirt freshman pocket passer Jacob Charest, who completed half of his passes against Purdue a week ago and will rotate in as Illinois tries to find something, anything, that works. The wisdom of sticking a freshman pocket passer behind your terrible offensive line when the opponent has Brandon Graham is… um… debatable, but when the alternative is Juice Williams it makes some sense.

Illinois still has terrifying uber-receiver Arrelious Benn around but can't get the ball to him because of the aforementioned problems. If Illinois does find protection it's going to be very tough for Michigan to cover him. Illinois loves lining him up in the slot and Michigan's response to that has been to stick Stevie Brown on said slot guy—sort of—and hope. With little in the way of safety help in Michigan's eight-man front, expect a wide-open corner route or two that may or may not be completed. Benn has an injured ankle and a dinged shoulder, FWIW. He will play; he's not 100%.

Michigan will have to defend the Illinois passing defense the way everyone has so far: sit back, let your line shred the Illinois line, and don't give up anything cheap before Illinois screws up a third and short or gets sacked or throws a hilariously terrible interception. It's teams like Illinois that remind us why bend-but-don't-break used to seem like such a good idea: people would shoot themselves in the foot well before they neared the endzone in the olden days.

Key Matchup: Jordan Kovacs and Mike Williams in two-deep coverage. They key to bending, but not breaking, is to not give up really long touchdowns. Can Michigan do that with a couple of slow underclassmen at safety? Eh… maybe, maybe not.

Special Teams

It's a theme: Illinois has terrible special teams. They're 108th in punt returns and 89th in kick returns. Kicker Matt Eller is 3/7 this year and missed an extra point. Their punting is pretty good, I guess.

Michigan, well: you know the story by now. The kick returns have returned to normal after an early period of competence, and the opposition kick returners are 50-50 to get a long one. Punting is fantastic; punt returns are an effort to fair catch every ball. Jason Olesnavage has been pretty good as a kicker. Slight advantage Michigan.

Key Matchup: CATCH THE DAMN BALL.

Intangibles

Kittens? I hesitate, but the spread is in the single digits.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Illinois gets any push at all from the offensive line.

Michigan can't pass protect again.

Folks other than Graham aren't smoking their blockers.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

Juice Williams is in third and long.

Michigan doesn't even have to gesture towards play balance.

They don't screw themselves with turnovers.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 out of 10. (Baseline 5, –1 for Holy God This Opponent Is Terrible, –1 for And In Ways That Play Into Michigan's Strengths And Away From Their Weaknesses, –1 for And Holy God, Just Look At It, +1 for This Same Quarterback Put Up M-vs-Baby Seals Yards Last Year, By Himself, +1 for and It Is A Road Game, –1 for That Will Be Attended By Six People.).

Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5, +1 for This Is A Debacle Of A Team We're Playing, +1 for Loss Would Totally Blow The ND Game Good Feelings, +1 for …And It Would Make A Bowl Game Look Super Iffy, +1 for …And Then I'd Have To Go On The Radio The Day After, +1 for …And Then I'd Have To UFR It.)

Loss will cause me to... rip a single branch off every tree in Ann Arbor out of existential spite.

Win will cause me to... WOO BOWL GAME BABY.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

The recipe for this game is Lloydball. On offense: run, run, run, run. Sprinkle in a short pass here and there, run some play action for shots deep. But do it rarely and just plow ahead for your points. On defense, lay back. Bend but don't break, don't give Illinois anything cheap with their athleticism, and wait for the inevitable stuff/sack/incompletion that gets you off the field.

Can Michigan follow this recipe? On offense, almost assuredly. The only thing that argues otherwise is the persistent issue with fumbles. If Michigan HOLDS ON TO THE DAMN BALL, the rushing numbers from the first few Big Ten games will be at least replicated, with the Penn State bombing more likely than the quasi-respectable game against Michigan State. Michigan matches up well against this defense. (Who doesn't, you ask? Er.)

It's a little bit iffier on a defense that's alternated stretches of competence with huge errors or structural deficiencies that give away easy yards. I expect Illinois to look almost competent on offense, something similar to the first half of the Penn State game where Illinois' running game was working pretty well and Penn State was busy with that and couldn't be bothered to get the pressure that kills Williams. So they'll have some drives that move the ball, but without short yardage it's hard to see more than one serious touchdown drive. Tack on one mind-bending error and some other stuff, and you've got a score similar to the other ones Illinois has put up so far, albeit one that assumes Illinois's points are not garbage-time decoration.

Somewhat less than timely, but still good. Michigan softball player Bree Evans, who suffered a scary injury at the beginning of the month, is out of the hospital. She's been out for a good long while…

Evans was released from the hospital two weeks ago, according to Michigan sports information director Leah Howard. Howard declined to comment on details of Evans’ injury.

…but better to know late than never, I guess.

Well, let's be explicit about it. Deshawn Sims and Mann Harris talking to Fox Sports's Jeff Goodman for a Beilein fluff bit before the season:

ANN ARBOR, Mich. - DeShawn Sims had just finished up his freshman season at Michigan when he heard the news that John Beilein had been hired to replace Tommy Amaker. At the time, Manny Harris was the Wolverines' top signee, and the word quickly swirled that he would explore other options.

"People were saying Beilein's system was for white boys," Sims said.

"I heard he didn't even like players that dunk," added the athletic Harris.

Elsewhere in basketball, perhaps the most newsworthy thing to come out of Big Ten Media Day was Illinois coach Bruce Weber suggesting that the Big Ten will "probably" move to a full round robin "down the road." I got so excited about it that I retweeted it, so, yes, I am enthusiastic about the hypothetical change. It just makes sense, and now with the Big Ten Network it makes financial sense—in conversations I've had with them they have a strong preference for intraconference matchups.

Junior guard Manny Harris - an All-Big Ten team selection Thursday - has battled pulled hamstrings since the start of practice and Beilein, himself a victim of the consistently tight hammys, has been extra cautious. …

“Now that it’s happened, it’s got to be a season-long therapy thing,” Beilein said. “We can’t let down. He’s always been tight in his hamstrings. I have tight hamstrings so I know what it’s like. It can lead to back problems.

“Stretching is not my favorite thing to do, it’s not his. Therapy isn’t, but he has to do it. “

Ugh. Season-long nagging injury for the unquestioned star of the team. This is not so good.

Because you're still on a Quest for Toronto.Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician, the fantastic Syracuse blog, asks "why isn't anyone talking about Scott Shafer?" Insert snark here. But then TNIAAM drops some year-to-year numbers that are a little bothersome since Michigan and Syracuse have essentially swapped defensive coordinators:

Syracuse Defense Rankings 2008 vs 2009 (through seven games)

Statistic

2008 Defense

2009 Defense

Run Defense

102nd

6th

Pass Defense

84th

115th

Scoring Defense

102nd

81st

Total Defense

102nd

62nd

Interceptions

99th

73rd

Fumbles Forced

59th

11th

Fumbles Recovered

84th

6th

Sacks

101st

24th

Tackles For Loss

106th

49th

Opp. 3rd Down Conv.

117th

38th

That's across-the-board improvement except in pass defense. So, okay, there's a lot of noise in these numbers and they'll probably fall with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh the next two games on the schedule. And Syracuse apparently returned a lot of people on defense, including all the good players. But it's at least an indication that Scott Shafer isn't a total git who lucked his way into the Michigan job and blew it all by himself.

On the other hand: the last time I offered a small complaint about Robinson, one of the guys from The Only Colors who does their version of UFR emailed me about a post he'd put up highlighting Robinson's halftime adjustments. That's pretty noisy, too, but in the offseason we'll take a thorough look at the two defenses.

Early signing. Don't know why this came up just now but Rodriguez is in favor of a couple changes to recruiting. One is an early signing day that this site has advocated before:

“I would be in favor of having an early signing day around the third week in December, when the junior-college signing date is, and then have another signing date like we do now on the first Wednesday in February," Rodriguez said on Tuesday's Big Ten coaches teleconference.

The other item he's mentioned is the past is allowing schools to offer official visits over the summer, something that makes sense for schools fairly distant from talent sources in Florida.

Adios, Ufer. Bob Ufer died this week in 1981, and a guy emailed me to let me know he'd been putting up some Ufer retrospective videos on the tubes:

I haven't spent a lot of time scouring youtube to confirm this, but I bet Michigan dominates it, what with Wolverine Historian and this poster ("Ghosts of Michigan") and now a zillion individual plays from UFR.

CONSPIRACY These are the items I was talking about Monday when I mentioned a number of questionable calls that went against Michigan. The illegal formation is on the right tackle here:

There was also the too-many-men call on the Robinson interception, or lack thereof:

You can see the ball has already been snapped.

Rodriguez is not happy about this stuff, nor is he happy about the ridiculous Schilling holding call—the second time in two Big Ten games that Schillling's crushed a guy and gotten a hold for his troubles. RR:

"Some of them I understand, when you twist and turn a guy, whatever," Rodriguez said. "But if you've got your hands inside in great position, you're drive blocking a guy and he falls down, because, one, he loses his balance or something, I don't think it should be called holding.

"There is more of a gray area, and there's more frustration, I think, in seeing some of the calls."

No doubt some Penn State fan will run back to his message board going "lol we won 35-10" so let's just be clear: this did not have an impact on the outcome of the game.

In addition, head coach Rich Rodriguez announced the game captains for the game at Illinois: running back Kevin Grady, defensive end Brandon Graham, wide receiver Greg Mathews and offensive lineman Tim McAvoy.

[/press release]

Odoms not playing or being limited would be a considerable loss; the other options at slot appear to be a meaningful dropoff, and Odoms had reclaimed the punt return job before the injury. Hemingway appears good to go, though, as does Warren.

Unfortunately, we did not flag down an Illinois blogger for this week's podcast, as I wasn't aware of anyone with a regularly-updated Illinois blog. But we do talk with Tim about the Penn State game—which was awesome—and bring in Jamiemac for the usual trip around the Big Ten, with the discussion of the Michigan-Illinois game serving as this week's opponent preview.

Personnel notes: Dorrestein actually started at right tackle and Huyge came in when Molk got hurt. Kelvin Grady got severely restricted playing time after the third-down drop early, so Roundtree got a lot of time and continued convincing quarterbacks to throw him the ball in situations where that's a terrible idea.

Other than that, not much to report.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M30

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Hitch

Mathews

7

PSU LBs are pulling up to the LOS even without a playfake; this goes outside to Mathews, who's thoroughly open as PSU runs cover three. The short safety is actually the guy who reacts to this throw first. Throw is a little upfield and outside, which actually allows Mathews an opportunity to turn and get a couple YAC he otherwise wouldn't have gotten. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

M37

2

3

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

7

Michigan hurries to the line and ABC screws up; I think I see Molk(+1) get a great sealing reach block on the playside DT and Moosman get out on the MLB, which opens up a crease Brown hits for a first down.

M44

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Bubble screen

Odoms

7

PSU a little late reacting to this and it's still Hull on the field, not Lee. Hull ends up charging upfield, which leaves Odoms enough of a crease behind Koger's effective block of Bowman; a filling safety comes up to tackle after a good gain. (CA, 3, screen.)

O49

2

3

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB zone stretch

Forcier

2

AKA “that other play Denard runs.” PSU attacks the playside hard but Schilling(+1) has cut the backside DT to the ground and this provides Forcier a lane; he cuts up. I don't know if he falls here or is attempting to get to the turf so he doesn't get clocked. Molk tears his ACL on this play and is lost.

O47

3

1

I-Form Big

2

2

1

Base 4-3

Run

Iso

Minor

3

Schilling gets a decent block on the DT but not a superior one, so they're just hanging out around the LOS; not much of a crease. Michigan had an easy time doubling and sealing the other DT, though, as he was shifted away from the center, and Minor has an easy cutback up the middle behind Schilling's block that he takes for the first down.

O44

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read veer

Minor

8

This was the play Minor crushed Penn State on last year with one small adjustment: Michigan is anticipating that the backside DE will crash down and blocking him. The WLB is headed out to the bubble and the other LBs are flowing in anticipation of the stretch, giving Minor a big hole to slam it up into; Hull reacts to attempt a tackle but Minor(+1) drags him six yards after first contact is made.

O36

2

2

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read keeper

Forcier

8

Near identical play to the last one with a tweak or two: Dorrestein doesn't block the backside DE, instead getting out on Bowman, and Forcier keeps the ball after the DE crashes down. Forcier slides out into open space; Hemingway loses his block and the play ends up a bit shorter than it otherwise would have been. (ZR +1)

O28

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

6

Penn State shifted away from the direction the play goes in here and their linebackers don't shift correspondingly. Also, they appear to be slanting way from the play, which gives Schilling the opportunity to block the playside defensive end(this is the guard lined up backside of the DT!) and three blockers to release into the second level. Hull does an excellent job of fighting inside of Moosman's block and holding this down. As it is first contact is made four yards downfield and the pile lurches forward. (RPS +1)

O22

2

4

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Bubble screen

Odoms

20

Penn State not covering this at all so far when Michigan goes to its trips set. They've got a safety and a corner to the WR side of the field but the linebacker over there doesn't even think of heading out on Odoms. The corner reacts too quickly for Mathews(-1) to get any sort of block on him, but Odoms(+1) avoids the tackle and picks up a good block from Hemingway(+1) to burst past the first line of defense; he jukes the last remaining safety to pick up another six or so. (CA, 3, screen) Odoms dinged up on the play. (RPS +1)

O2

1

G

I-Form Big

2

2

1

Goal line

Run

Zone stretch

Minor

1

Michigan attacks what looks like a weak spot on the PSU DL and gets enough seal/push that I think this is a touchdown but for a poor block attempt by Ortmann on one LB and Koger(-1) getting blasted back by a DE; Ortmann's lack of a block means Grady has to get out on that guy and Minor is taken down by a couple guys therefore unblocked.

O1

2

G

I-Form Big

2

2

1

Goal line

Run

Iso

Minor

1

Right up the middle; good push from Moosman and Schilling. Minor runs through a couple of arm tackles from LBs blitzing from the outside to pick up the touchdown.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 11 min 1st Q. That was fun. I bet we do that like eight more times.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M28

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout out

Grady(19)

Inc

Man, there are 7.5 guys in the box here and no one near the slot receiver; Michigan should just toss the bubble until they stop it. Instead they run play action, pulling Schilling around for some help on the backside. Penn State has scouted this and neither LB to the WR side bites much. I can't see the downfield routes but it seems like someone should be open deep; Forcier doesn't find anyone, eventually checking down to Grady late. Grady's open and may have some YAC for a decent gain; Forcier throws it too far inside, so he's got no shot. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

M28

2

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Minor

4

Moosman(-1) beat one-on-one by Ogbu, the playside DT. Ogbu is right in the hole that Minor tries to slam up into; he's getting blocked so Minor manages to run him over. Great second-level blocking from Schilling and Koger keeps defenders from finishing the play immediately; Koger eventually loses his guy as Minor cuts outside of him and the play is held to a meh gain.

M32

3

6

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Rollout deep out

Grady

Inc

Nice block by Minor on this rollout gets Forcier time and space with which he finds a wide open Grady downfield. The throw is low-ish and will take Grady off his feet but still very catchable; Grady drops it. I have to call this a 2, but it's a borderline 2 and this is one of the first big drops that just kills Michigan's offense all day. (CA, 2, protection 2/2) Interesting side note: Koger(!) is running a bubble route here, which pulls a zone defender and opens up this space.

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 8 min 1st Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Bubble screen

Odoms

7

Adjustment here on Michigan's part because they probably know that Penn State runs a cover three all the time: Stonum, the outside receiver, comes down to block the safety tasked with Odoms, allowing him outside where he goes one-on-one with the corner. Odoms, clearly dinged up, can't make Lynn miss, though he picks up good yardage. (CA, 3, screen)

M27

2

3

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read keeper

Forcier

4

Forcier sees the DE crash inside of the backside tackle and the MLB also crash down, so he pulls it out. Bowman is charging right at him; he threatens to break it outside, then cuts it up for first down yardage. Brown could have blocked a prone Hull for some more, I guess.

M31

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

-1

Moosman(-1) shoved way too far back by Ogbu; Dorrestein(-1) blasted back by the playside DE, so there's no hole, and the cutback comes too late for Brown to do anything except get swarmed. Molk aigh.

M32

2

11

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Slant

Stonum

Inc

Extremely crappy, almost nonexistent PA fake by Forcier doesn't hold anyone, but Minor wasn't exactly selling it either. The WLB just gets a zone drop—it's a zone blitz dropping off into that side right into the throwing lane. Forcier throws it anyway. WLB drops it. Bad decision on par with the Iowa INT. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)

M32

3

11

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Sack

--

-2

Good protection at first, but then a late stunt fools Dorrestein(-1) and forces Forcier to start running around. He can't find anyone and eats it for a sack. (TA, 0, protection 1/2, Dorrestein -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-10, 2 min 1st Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M12

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read veer

Brown

17

PSU's alignment here is asking for this; they've got a safety shaded over the trips WR side but only two guys covering three WRs, which means Bowman has to stay outside for contain/bubble purposes. With Hull heading out for the stretch this means there's huge lane between the LBs. With the backside end getting blocked Brown shoots into the secondary through a gaping hole. Safety fill ends it but not until many yards.

M29

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read veer

Brown

5

Believe this is the exact same play but it's hard to tell because Michigan rushes to the line and gets the play off as ABC is showing a replay of the previous one. When we come back Brown is hitting the same hole he did on the last play but the LBs are playing it better, with Bowman crashing in and forcing Brown inside, where he meets Hull four or five yards downfield.

M34

2

5

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB zone stretch

Forcier

2

Direction of this play fools the PSU DL and the DE steps the wrong way, getting sealed. Michigan now has three blockers on two LBs but one blocker is Roundtree. Forcier's got a lead blocker and maybe a crease if he hits it up but he decides to bounce it—reasonable. Bowman makes a great play to close the inside crease and then get out on Forcier's bounce, slowing it and allowing PSU to close after just a couple yards.

M36

3

3

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Sack

--

-7

PSU blitzing into this rollout, which picks off lead blocker Brown and gets Hull in unblocked. Forcier appears to have a shot at the first down with Roundtree, but Hull is in too quick and crushes him. On replay this is just a massive protection screwup from Ortmann(-2), who should know he has Brown helping and block Hull easily. He does not. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2)

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-10, 12 min 2nd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M17

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB zone stretch

Robinson

7

Robinson in. PSU splits the linebackers in response to the empty set and Michigan runs at the gap up the middle, with Robinson slashing past Ogbu, who defeated an attempted reach block from Moosman. He's into the linebackers because Schilling(+1) has sealed Odrick. I think Ogbu's been a lot better in the ground game than Odrick so far. Robinson zips for good yardage before folks can converge.

M24

2

3

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read inside

Minor

7

This isn't quite the veer, which I believe is supposed to go between the backside tackle and guard, but because PSU slants hard it goes there, basically, with M shoving guys down the line and Minor cutting back behind everyone. A late-arriving Bowman, who was the contain, grabs Minor's ankle and holds on for dear life, but well after first down yardage.

M31

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB lead draw

Robinson

6

Michigan's favorite play with Robinson, by now rote: Michigan attacks the side of the line that has a big gap between the NT and DE, doubling and blowing out the DT, kicking out the DE, and shooting Minor at the MLB. Hull takes a pounding from Minor, but sheds and tackles. That's seven yards downfield, but he does tackle. Tough to stop this, I guess. No one's really done it consistently so far.

M37

2

4

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Minor

14 (Pen -5)

This is such a crap call. PSU is slanting or something; they're not looking for the stretch, with the playside DT hitting it upfield immediately, allowing Moosman(+1) to seal him. Schilling gets a free release into the second level, where he blocks Hull out of the play; the SLB heads outside, where Koger blocks him; Minor has a big crease to shoot into, which he does. Bowman finally tracks him down. Play comes back because Dorrestein apparently lined up in the backfield. Is this a point of emphasis now or something? I've never seen this called before and this is the second time Michigan's gotten hit.

M32

2

9

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Scramble

Robinson

0 (Pen +10)

Some sort of screen. Roundtree comes up to block Bowman and Michigan really has the angles here to get a good gain with Brown flaring out, but Robinson doesn't bother to throw it, probably because Moosman(-2) got smoked by Odrick and this was slower developing; yes, this screen got blown up by pass pressure. Robinson tries to scramble and gets hacked down for no gain. Bowman gets a holding call for attempting to avoid Roundtree's block... very dodgy. Potential missed horsecollar on Robinson, I guess. Really weird, though I can see what the referee was calling on replay since Bowman did grab him and throw him to the ground. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Moosman -2)

M42

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB zone stretch

Robinson

2

Wish we had Minor in on this, as PSU is slanting under this play and there's plenty of room on the outside but for Bowman, who avoids a terrible attempt at a block by Roundtree, gets out on Brown's attempt at a lead block, sets up, cuts off the outside, and still makes the tackle as Robinson tries to duck inside. A +3 play if Bowman was playing for Michigan; we should offer Vanderlinden one million dollars to coach here. Also wish we had Odoms here, despite his dwarf status he'd at least screw with Bowman, I think.

M44

2

8

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Seam

Koger

Inc

Part one of doom. Michigan just runs Koger into the slot, gets him wide open, and Robinson hits him, only to have it dropped. This is a solid 2 on the catch scale; Robinson fired it hard and high and Koger couldn't get his hands up in time. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

This is so Brown's fault in every way imaginable. Moosman turns and pancakes the playside DT, providing a huge(!) hole to cut up into, but Brown doesn't take it, instead attempting to get outside a tackle who's given two yards of ground. He's just seen the playside DT die in a fire and his immediate instinct should be to hit it upfield. Instead he continues to head outside where Ortmann loses control of Crawford and ends up drawing a holding call. PSU declines it because Brown lost three anyway.

M5

2

13

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Penalty

False start

Ortmann

Pen -5

Bleerrrr

M3

2

15

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Throwaway

--

Inc

Terrible by Ortmann(-2), who attempts to block down on Odrick and actually loses the guy to the outside, which bully for Odrick but Christ. Forcier, meanwhile, gives a brief look to one side of the field, which is open, then comes to the covered bits(?). I'm not sure I understand. Maybe that was just a decoy and if given some time he'd find Mathews hand-wavingly open on the other side of the field. He doesn't have time. (TA, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann)

M3

3

15

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Penalty

Delay

--

-1

Eh.

M3

3

15

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Yakety Sax

--

-3

Blerg

Drive Notes: Safety, 7-12, 4 min 2nd Q. At least we've perfected the take-a-delay-penalty play when backed up on our goal line. I'm not even joking.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M33

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone counter dive

Minor

3

The backside DE gets momentarily delayed by the OT to that side, but it's not really a block, it's just an OL moving through and getting in the way a bit. It's Koger who's supposed to provide that block; the DE is ready for it and crashing inside so that there's no hole between himself and the DT. Meanwhile, Hull is watching for the TE pull and avoids the stretch block, popping Minor in the hole. The thing should end there for no gain but Minor spins out of the tackle and grinds for a few. Penn State clearly prepared for this . First time Michigan's run it this game.

M36

2

7

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Scramble

Forcier

-1

Forcier gets good protection and has Mathews open on a hitch on one side of the field. Instead of coming off his first read, which is Koger on a seam, he starts running around, eventually getting chopped down for no gain. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)

M35

3

8

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Seam

Koger

Inc

Penn State running with this, basically, but Koger is faster than Hull and Forcier finds the tiny window he's got between the LB and safety, hitting Koger in the hands. Koger's already dropped the ball by the time the safety closes to hit. Hearing footsteps or whatever, but this is a straight drop. 1 if he gets the ball knocked loose by the safety, but a 3 since it's already gone. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)

Slot out draws a safety up and provides a small window Forcier uses, threading it above a linebacker and in front of pretty decent coverage from Penn State, hitting Mathews as he slides to the turf to dig it out. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)

O21

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read veer

Minor

7

DE crashes inside so Minor hits it up outside of him; Bowman and Hull do read it eventually and manage to grab Minor by the legs, slowing him and dragging him to the turf after 7.

O14

2

3

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Minor

7

Here Minor makes the cut Brown failed to on the last drive, feeling the playside DT attempt to come around the center and fail. When that happens he immediately knows to slam directly upfield, which he does for the first down before getting double teamed and taken down.

O7

1

G

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Minor

5

Playside DT isn't as eager to get sealed this time but he does end up on the wrong side of a reach block. PSU DTs love to get upfield and with them it seems to be boom or bust. Minor runs past him but with the space constricted he runs into problems. Ortmann(-1) didn't get a cut on the backside DT, so Minor can't cut behind the downfield block of Huyge. Still a good gain, though the time remaining makes this somewhat questionable. Refs stop the clock for some reason.

O2

2

G

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Yakety Sax

--

-4

Forcier just fumbles the snap. This is on him.

O6

3

G

Whatevs

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Spike

--

--

Argh.

Drive Notes: FG(23), 10-19, EOH.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M28

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Slant

Mathews

Inc

Had it open, but the unblocked backside DE reads it and leaps in the air to bat it down. Good play; I think Michigan is expecting him to crash, which would open up a lane here. (BA, 0, protection NA)

M28

2

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Swing

Brown

Inc

Swing pass is too far in front of Brown. I wonder if this is Forcier's fault or Brown's. (IN, 1, protection N/A)

M28

3

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Sack

--

-6

Not Forcier's fault at all; a DE is coming around Dorrestein(-1), forcing him to scramble up in the pocket, where a stunt from Crawford gets him past Moosman(-1) and Schilling(-1), resulting in a sack. No protection. (PR, 0, protection 0/3)

Drive Notes: Punt, 10-25, 12 min 2nd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M17

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read inside

Minor

0

Robinson in. Penn State slanting away from where a stretch would go and into this play , which naturally opens up the area where a stretch would go. Minor's angle is right upfield, though, and he bounces into the traffic. When he tries to bounce out a couple of guys grab him by the jersey and haul him down.

M17

2

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB lead draw

Robinson

6

No real creases but still fairly effective as the MLB is taking the momentum of both Robinson and an OL a couple yards downfield, so the pile keeps moving until it's six yards downfield, whereupon Robinson fumbles.

Drive Notes: Fumble, 10-25, 8 min 3rd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M39

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Hitch

Koger

Inc

Straight dropped. Would have been six-ish. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

M39

2

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Improv

Brown

20 (Pen -10)

Odrick gets penetration but a double from Schilling and Moosman sees Moosman shove Odrick as he engages with Schilling, at which point Odrick falls to the ground; Schilling goes with him. This is flagged, which is ridiculous. Forcier move up in the pocket, cuts back against the grain when a DE starts to close him down, breaks the pocket, and floats a perfect pass to Brown as Brown nears the sideline. Caught, first down, wiped out. (DO, 2, protection 1/2, Schilling -1)

M29

2

20

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB draw

Forcier

12

PSU stunting, which eventually sees a crease open up between the DT twist; Forcier reads it and smartly cuts up, using his block from Brown well and picking up most of it afterwards.

M41

3

8

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout corner

Odoms

Inc

This is covered and should not be thrown, and inaccurate anyway. Michigan's just leaving two receivers to the backside on these plays, not even bringing them across on a crossing route or something, so Forcier's got basically one option on this play. Given the situation it's not a terrible decision, but it's not a good one, either. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)

Huyge(-1) and Moosman(-1) totally fail to reach Ogbu despite a momentary double, and Ogbu shoots directly into the play. This is the cardinal thing you cannot do on a stretch. Brown's in a bunch of trouble, forced outside; when he tries to cut back a PSU LB rakes the ball free and PSU falls on it. Yay.

Drive Notes: Fumble, 10-32, 4 min 3rd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M28

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout hitch

Roundtree

Inc

LB flowing out on the deep outside hitch to Mathews, so Forcier attempts to come inside to Roundtree, who's sort of open but doesn't have great separation. Forcier turfs it anyway. (IN, 0, protection NA)

M28

2

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Jailbreak screen

Mathews

9

PSU dropping into deep zones and Michigan catches them (RPS +1) with a play they haven't shown yet today. Schilling gets a good block on Lee, who's come in in semi-garbage time, and Mathews can run up for near first-down yardage. (CA, 3, screen)

M37

3

1

Ace 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Power O

Minor

2

Penn State does a pretty good job of fighting this off, with Odrick fighting playside of a down-block and double. He ends up falling and a blitzing Bowman can't quite get to Minor before he leaps over the mess for a first down.

M39

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Wheel

Shaw

12

Jeez, Forcier should probably not throw this since the zone coverage PSU is in has one of their corners against Shaw on a wheel route—basically your route loses—and the corner's in great position. Forcier threads the needle, though, putting the pass in the only spot it can go, and Shaw hauls it in with a sideline one-foot grab. Results-based (DO, 1, protection 2/2)

O49

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

TE cross

Webb

Inc

Forcier stands in and finds Webb wide open—underneath zone guy fell. He hits him. Not a great throw but an okay one, with it hitting Webb in the midsection only a little behind him; drop. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

O49

2

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Improv

Webb

Inc

Serious protection bust or something because the playside DE comes free on this play and Shaw runs past him, though he's carrying out a fake. I think the line slid the protection the wrong way. As a result, Forcier has to scramble around immediately. He actually finds Webb for what looks like it will be a decent gain (assuming Webb catches the damn ball), but a linebacker bats it down. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, team)

O49

3

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Seam

Shaw

Inc

This is double-covered and could be intercepted; very poor decision. (BR, 0, protection 2/2) Maybe had a little hitch to Roundtree for 5-8, which would have set up a fourth and makeable.

Drive Notes: Punt, 10-32, 1 min 3rd Q. Penn State goes on an epic drive with aid from a bad roughing the punter penalty and when M gets it back its 35-10 with five minutes left. PSU backups and prevent D make the last drive more deceiving than anything and I won't chart it.

In my copy of the game I replaced all of Michigan's drives with copies of the first one.

Dude, I bet we win that game.

Yeah, by lots. It's awesome.

Sweet. I bet this is a clever way to get me to address the vast dropoff from a slick 11-play touchdown drive to whatever the rest of the day was.

No, it is the literal truth. I do not wish to discuss the rest of the day at all.

Ah so.

What is your opinion of game one? Do you think it counts? I just heard Colin Cowherd go on a ten-minute rant about how he "doesn't want to hear" that game one of the World Series "doesn't mean anything."

Really?

Yes. Your opinion? I have to admit, Cowherd made a strong case that the first game of the World Series is not a crazy exhibition that has no effect on the outcome.

Um. David Molk's injury obviously had something to do with it. And then it was just a lot of Michigan incompetence. Subsequent drive ends:

Kelvin Grady is wide open for first down, Forcier throws it a little low, Grady drops it.

Penn State stuffs a run, nearly intercepts a bad pass, and gets pressure on Forcier.

Ortmann decides not to block Josh Hull, who sacks Forcier. Protection bust on third and three.

Koger drop followed by Robinson INT.

Yakety sax safety.

Koger drops seam.

Forcier fumbles snap, spikes ball.

Batted pass, inaccurate swing, three guys screw up in protection and get Forcier killed.

Robinson fumble

Terrible holding call, 12 yard QB draw, throw into double coverage.

Brown fumble

Drop, bad protection, throw into double coverage.

Penn State had a lot to do with all of this; teams do not exist in a vacuum and having guys covered and whatnot is a thing secondaries other than Michigan do from time to time. But, man: drop, drop, drop, fumble, fumble, fumble, vomit. This is a pattern that's been going on for a while now. There are some talent problems with the offense, but a lot of it is just playing poorly. Bad coaching, bad luck, young kids, you take your pick as to the reason. The ideas behind Michigan's offense still seem good; the execution is lacking.

I mean, all the pressure is on the Yankees, he said. He said the Phillies aren't afraid.

Yes, the bubble screen did make a triumphant return, albeit briefly. Having Odoms dinged up on the first drive didn't help matters, either. Rodriguez is clearly skeptical of Kelvin Grady's ability to catch the ball—with good reason—and the bubbles they attempted subsequent to the first one didn't do that well, with Roundtree getting overthrown on one. It was part of a day on which the quarterbacks were bad, but not as bad as you might think, but to discuss that I'll need some—

I find his ability to condescend while expressing opinions that are either moronic or obvious fascinating.

Robinson is throwing too many interceptions and fumbling too much to play consistently, except the other quarterback isn't doing that hot because he's also a freshman. Things should get better against Illinois and Purdue; Penn State has a bear of a defense and it's understandable Michigan's kid QBs would struggle.

Forcier would tag on some meaningless completions and an even more meaningless interception on Michigan's final drive, but garbage time doesn't get counted. This week's downfield success rate is 9 / 18 = 50%, which is bad. It's not nearly as bad as Forcier's final numbers, though, and there's a major reason why:

This Game

Totals

Player

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Hemingway

-

-

-

-

3

-

1/2

7/7

Mathews

1

-

1/1

2/2

8

1/4

2/3

9/9

Stonum

1

-

-

-

3

1/3

3/4

10/10

Savoy

-

-

-

-

2

-

1/2

4/4

Odoms

1

-

-

3/3

5

1/3

4/6

16/17

Grady-19

1

-

0/1

-

2

-

2/3

9/12

Roundtree

2

-

0/1

-

5

-

1/4

-

Stokes

-

-

-

-

-

-

1/1

1/1

Koger

-

-

0/1

0/2

-

3/4

3/5

6/9

Webb

-

-

-

0/1

1

-

-

3/5

Minor

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1/1

Brown

-

0/1

1/1

-

-

1/4

2/2

5/6

Shaw

-

1/1

-

-

-

1/1

0/1

-

Smith

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Grady-24

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1/1

Obviously an ugly day, with three flat drops and three more passes that could have been catches (could have been critical first downs) not getting reeled in. Koger's great start came to a clunky halt with and 0/3 day, and no one really helped out except for the running backs. Forcier's day wasn't good, but it wasn't as bad as the numbers suggest.

Another extremely shaky performance from the offensive line. Molk re-injuring himself has something to do with it, but Huyge—the guy who came in for Molk—isn't anywhere on this list. Michigan's been severely restricted from a downfield passing game because the receivers aren't threats in and of themselves and the line can't pass block consistently enough to give them time to get open, or Forcier time to throw. I think they've been pretty decent in the run game; as pass defenders they're very poor.

A couple weeks ago he ranted about how baseball wouldn't put a little spiderweb on the bases for Spiderman 3, made fun of baseball for being old fashioned, lauded the NFL for participating in this thing where everyone wears pink stuff for breast cancer awareness, said that's why the NFL is so much more popular—it's forward thinking!—and never once mentioned that one act was blatantly commercial and the other was for charity.

Yeah… super.

SOMETHING IS TERRIBLE.

Many things to choose from on this day but tight ends and Denard Robinson stood out as the items that damaged Michigan's chances the most.

SOMETHING IS FANTASTIC.

Brandon Minor needs the ball more.

ILLINOIS annoying pause TERRIBLE AWFUL I THINK THAT'S TOTALLY FAIR?

Illinois has a terrible run defense so Michigan should be able to plow them over despite the Molk injury and the issues Michigan's had so far against high level defenses. Illinois is emphatically not a high-level defense. Penn State rushed for almost 340 yards against them. Michigan should be able to move the ball effectively by putting it in the hands of Minor and Brown, using the passing game as a sidelight to keep people honest.

As for the future, the turnovers have to stop. It's one thing for Robinson to throw an interception every four throws or whatever, but he can't fumble it, too. Both senior tailbacks have coughed up critical fumbles in the last two real games, and while I don't think turnovers are that predictable, they're not totally random. Turnovers cost Michigan the Iowa game and prevented the Penn State game from being competitive; the lurking danger is that Michigan will end the Illinois or Purdue game seriously in the hole in TO margin and therefore on the scoreboard. Just Lloydball it when you can the rest of the year, I guess.

Up Front

I've added TX DT Jatashun "Big Tex" Beachum (pictured at right) to the board, as he plans on visiting Michigan ($, info in header). He's currently committed to Arkansas as a running back(!) and is a 280-pound dual threat QB(!) in high school. That's one heck of an athlete that the Wolverines are pursuing on the defensive line.

Both MN OL Seantrel Henderson and PA DT Sharrif Floyd opted against visiting Michigan last weekend, which seriously damages Michigan's chances at both of them (though it may be a better thing that they didn't sit through the rain to see Michigan get pounded). The Daily Gopher thinks Michigan is hanging on near the back of Henderson's top schools, though that was with the assumption he would visit Ann Arbor. As for Floyd, he went to Ohio State instead, and he has a new top five:

In no particular order, they are: Florida, Ohio State, North Carolina, South Carolina and USC.

Last Line of Defense

Michigan's woes in the secondary, compounded by the dismissal of Boubacar Cissoko from the team yesterday, have a number of recruits giving Michigan a hard look. CA CB Tony Jefferson, currently a UCLA commit, plans to take a Michigan visit for next week's Purdue game, as mgoblog's own TomVH said Tuesday. UCLA (where he is currently committed), Florida, and Miami are his other finalists.

Added LA S Carvin Johnson to the board, as he took an official visit to Ann Arbor for the contest against the Nittany Lions ($, info in header). He really enjoyed the visit, as well ($, info in header). Johnson has a Michigan offer, and favors the Wolverines pending a couple more official visits. Carvin is on the left in the photo, next to Wolverine commit PA DE Ken Wilkins (image courtesy of Josh Helmholdt in the Detroit Free Press).

FL CB Tony Grimes has had Michigan near the top of his list for quite some time now, and the Wolverines may be in a similar position for his teammate, FL DE Clarence Murphy. However, neither is ready to make a decision any time soon:

"I'm just letting things come to me in recruiting," Grimes said. "I'm more focused on my play on the field, but I am staying in touch with certain college coaches. The recruiting stuff will all play itself out in the end. I'm in no hurry to make a decision."

Added Murphy, "We are probably just going to continue to focus on high school football right now and then once it gets towards that deadline, we are going to put our heads together after we take our officials and (determine) where we want to be the next three to four years."

Grimes is one of Michigan's top prospects at corner, and adding a pass-rusher would be icing on the cake.

Moving to a prospect that the Wolverines don't have a great chance with, CA S Dietrich Riley is favoring Tennessee, Notre Dame, Florida, and USC. I think the title "Riley Down to Four" might be overstating the case, but any other school is definitely facing an uphill battle. Michigan is one of four schools vying for his final official visit.

Etc.

OH LB Steve Mehrervisited Ann Arbor last weekend ($, info in header). His best current offer is Bowling Green, so he's probably way down the list of possibilities. OH TE Alex Smith has Michigan in his final two with Cincinnati. ESPN has (rather unwisely) made it impossible to link to their "On the Trail" recruiting updates, so no link, but CA RB Anthony Barr has eliminated Michigan, and I've removed him from the board.