Iain Martin is a political commentator, and a former editor of The Scotsman and former deputy editor of The Sunday Telegraph. He is the author of Making It Happen: Fred Goodwin, RBS and the men who blew up the British economy, published by Simon & Schuster.. As well as this blog, he writes a column for The Sunday Telegraph. You can read more about Iain by visiting his website

Could Tony Blair have beaten David Cameron in the 2010 general election?

I pose the question in the headline simply because I am interested in what people make of the idea. And I suppose I also want see if ultra-Blaritie John Rentoul puts it into his famous Questions To Which the Answer Is No series (QTWAIN). If Labour had been sensible enough to avoid firing Tony Blair in 2007, what would have happened at the subsequent general election in 2010? Could he have beaten David Cameron? Blair claims in his latest interview that he would have given the Tory leader a run for his money and got a better result for his party than Gordon Brown did. Of course he's correct.

All sorts of things would have been different. Peter Mandelson would never have enjoyed a domestic political comeback, as in that crazy mixed-up way politics works Blair would not have dared bring him back as Gordon Brown did.

Brown, who would not have resigned after Blair refused to go in 2006-2007, would have been fired by Blair after the start of the financial crisis. His replacement would have been Alistair Darling. Picture the scene. Blair: "Look. Gordon. This is a priddy tough thing for me to do. But you told us you'd ended boom'n'bust? Yerv gotta go. We might be able to get you something at the World Bank." Brown: "Tony, please don't sack me, please."

In the run-up to the election Blair would have been behind in the polls, because of the recession (for which he would have sort of apologised, blaming Gordon). Being the underdog, he would have probably have agreed to the TV debates that Cameron demanded. And in those debates old smoothie chops would have triumphed against Dave and Nick.

The Tory election campaign – which was an expensive shambles with no clear message – would have been pulled apart by Blair. TB's message to the country would have been that he saw what this likeable young man Cameron was trying and failing to do. That was copy him, Blair, with too much soft soap and dated rebranding. So why not take the real thing rather than a Tory imitation? Many people would have hated it but a big enough portion of the Labour vote would have rallied and relished the fightback. It would easily have been enough to make Labour the largest party in a hung parliament. At which point, the morning after the election, Tony Blair, in his Number 10 den, lifts the phone: "Hi Nick, it's Tony here. Y'know, I used to say to Paddy (Ashdown) that what I really always wanted was to go into coalition with you guys."