Comments on: Making Sure Bets On Online Prediction Marketshttps://www.techdirt.com/
Easily digestible tech news....link exchange requesthttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c142
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:33:07 PDThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c142 to this site.So would you like to link exchange with this site.?c]]>great opportunity?https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c117
Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:11:52 PDThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c117 You sell at 1.2 (risking $9.88 to win $0.12) and Intrade immediately charges you 3 cents for being the aggressor. Then when they expire the winning trade you put on, they take out 10 cents for "expiry fees". Your Pnl net of fees: -0.01

By all means, risk $9880 to win $120 betting against Ron Paul, just don't cry when they deduct your balance by $130 and ask you to send them another $10 to cover fees.]]>PopSci Predictions Exchangehttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c95
Sat, 23 Feb 2008 21:50:06 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c95Prediction Marketshttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c73
Fri, 15 Feb 2008 07:51:39 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c73 I have included a Wikipedia link to "Wisdom of the Crowds". Remember, the government wanted to trade a futures contract on terrorism.]]>https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c53
Thu, 14 Feb 2008 06:40:48 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c53Love your circular reasoninghttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c45
Thu, 14 Feb 2008 00:56:19 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c45...while they do tend to come up with the right answer in the long term...

Q: How long is "long term"?

A: Long enough to come up with the right answer.

]]>Manipulators Don't Have an Effecthttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c21
Thu, 14 Feb 2008 00:14:08 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c21http://people.ucsc.edu/~roprea/manipEX1.pdf (there are other publishing out there as well on this subject). I would recommend browsing the conclusion, if nothing else. In addition, there are other published experiments whose data shows that auctions injected with manipulators actually produce lower ending prices compared to regular auctions with no presence of manipulating betters(but still not low enough to be significant). Yes, quick traders my be able to capture minimal profits in the VERY short run, but the data shows that they do NOT have a significant effect on the overall price or validity of the prediction market. Not to mention, there is an inherent risk of losing money while betting far above current prices. Overall, the claims of the inefficiencies in these prediction markets remain to be stated; at least by this author.]]>https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c1
Wed, 13 Feb 2008 19:49:44 PSThttps://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080213/114007246.shtml#c1