The Global Economy: Top of the Cycle?

Global growth is approaching 4% this year, its most robust in eight years. The recovery gives countries an opportunity to implement reforms to improve infrastructure and welfare policies in response to fears about sluggish productivity and wage growth and the impact of automation.

Few countries are finding the budgets and political will to do so. Time may be running out even on those that have.

Geopolitical risks have helped commodity prices recover, assisting some countries but at the expense of others. Global monetary conditions are tightening. Rising tensions reduce the trajectory of world trade as US and retaliatory tariffs take effect, and there is a risk that disputes could escalate into trade war, eroding the authority of the WTO.

Is the global economy approaching the peak of its current cycle?

Will policy and trade trends, and geopolitical risks continue to diverge across the world?