From spike66 at comcast.net Thu Sep 1 02:52:43 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 19:52:43 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] RE: Please tell us a tree story Spike (long,
not particularly extropian)
In-Reply-To: <200508311445.j7VEjrO13302@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <200509010254.j812sfw10514@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
...
>
> Yes I shall see something more wonderous than a tree: two
> trees that have fallen in opposite directions... spike
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> Before the students entered the classroom, the teacher turned the plate
> around...
kevinfreels wrote:
> Maybe they fell at different times from different storms?
BillK wrote:
> Most likely solution, after the first fall had weakened the roots of
> the second tree.
OK cool, you are thinking.
While hiking at Mount Rainier last week in the old growth
forests, I made a number of observations about trees. In
an old growth forest in the US northwest, the trees in the
biggie range (two to four meter diameter) grow at a typical
spacing of 10 to 15 meters. The distribution is not random,
which should come as no surprise, because trees compete
for resources. They distribute themselves more evenly
than random.
I did see something puzzling however. There are a
number of big trees that are so close they touch. There
are more trees that touch at their bases than
there are trees that are 3 meters apart.
I saw two trees that had fallen in opposite directions.
This was not so remarkable, for one might imagine a whirlwind
or tornado which has winds in opposite directions
simultaneously. I noted that the two trees, if mentally set
upright, would actually intersect. The roots on the up
side were bent and gnarly (dude), perhaps from competing
with the other tree.
You may already know of the materials property of wood:
it is highly anisotropic. This is a fancy engineering
way of saying its strength is highly dependent on load
and direction. Snap a toothpick, cut it with a scissor,
crush it lengthwise, easy, easy, easy, since wood is a
low strength material in compression, shear and bending
load.
But now try to pull that toothpick apart lengthwise. It
will give you a new respect for the tensile strength of
wood, and a new respect for the carbon-carbon bond.
Back to trees: If you have strong roots on three sides
and bent gnarly roots on one side, the most likely direction
of fall is gnarly roots up, since the strong roots are
unlikely to fail in tension. But they might fail in
bending.
In an old growth forest, old dead trees fall and become
nurse logs: other trees germinate on the log itself, then
devour the nutrients in the nurse log. If you have an
old growth forest nearby, do look for nurse logs.
I noticed that the newly germinated trees were more likely
to sprout not on the top of the fallen log, but on the
sides, where the cylindrical surface was about 45 degrees
from horizontal. Perhaps the rough bark surface could
trap more water for a longer time there than on the top
of the log? If you find a nurse log, see if you find
that there are two rows of newly germinated trees, along
either side of the nurse log.
Perhaps this would explain why there are so many touching
pairs of trees: they both started about the same time on
either side of the same nurse log, so neither had a big
advantage over the other. They grew up together as twins.
Now imagine branches growing out of the trunk toward the
twin tree. The two steadily push on each other as the
branches grow. In every case where I saw twin trees
touching at their bases, they grew apart to form an
enormous V. So they were leaning in just the wrong
way, depending on their weak gnarly roots on the side
that needed the enormous strength of wood in tension.
The last bit of the puzzle was provided by twin trees
whose roots had been force mostly above ground on the other-
tree side, each wrapping around its twin in a root-amentary
embrace ({8^D). One could easily imagine that the
underground roots were interlaced, as one would interlace
one's fingers to crack one's knuckles.
With that mental picture one need not call for a
whirlwind, but rather the ordinary storm gust strong
enough to push over one of the twins, whose roots would
then lever the other out of the ground in the opposite
direction. Problem solved!
As I walked among these stately patriarchs, I marveled
at the changes they have seen in their centuries. Filled
with awe and wonder was I at their steadfast perseverance
across the generations of us temporary primates. My mind
boggled as I struggled to comprehend just how much they
would be worth if cut up into something useful.
Kidding, bygones, I have made arrangements to go to
Montana (on a motorcycle of course) to go look at old
growth forest. Trees are cool.
spike
From davidmc at gmail.com Thu Sep 1 04:01:24 2005
From: davidmc at gmail.com (David McFadzean)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 22:01:24 -0600
Subject: [extropy-chat] ping - please ignore
In-Reply-To: <200508310358.j7V3wsO28659@tick.javien.com>
References: <2DE9D54D-8DEA-4395-BF26-BED694486444@mac.com>
<200508310358.j7V3wsO28659@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID:
The list was down again for a few hours today. As far as I can tell
the cause is unrelated to the downtime last weekend. Just Murphy at
work :-/
David
On 8/30/05, spike wrote:
> I was on vacation. Pondering trees. {8-] spike
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> > bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Samantha Atkins
> > Sent: Monday, August 29, 2005 12:07 PM
> > To: ExI chat list
> > Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] ping - please ignore
> >
> > Something appears to have been wrong with the list. I sent a note to
> > Natasha and spike when I noticed Saturday. I got no reply. This
> > isn't the first time.
> >
> > - s
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From fortean1 at mindspring.com Thu Sep 1 04:55:16 2005
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 21:55:16 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] Re: Are dwarfs better for long
duration spaceflight?]
Message-ID: <431689B4.3050908@mindspring.com>
On Tue, 30 Aug 2005 23:31:00 -0700,
"Terry W. Colvin" fnarded:
>There is a professional society of which I have been a member
>for over 20 years, SAWE, the Society of Aerospace Weight
>Engineers. We sit around and argue about stuff like this. Really.
>If you take issue with any of these concepts, do speak
>up and state your reasoning.
There are a lot of interesting points presented here, but I do have
some concerns about going small and light-weight for crew selection
on future manned missions.
Designing for absolute minimum weight aerospace vehicles is fraught
with problems. Current aircraft have a great deal of work done to
define the performance criteria of the vehicle, the loading it is
expected to encounter and such like - referred to as its
"design envelope". Many moons ago I worked on a British military
aircraft that had undergone a drastic weight reduction exercise,
that employed a variety of techniques (using minimum thickness skins,
scalloped edges to cleats and plating, punched and dished holes,
the works). While a measure of weight as saved, it made the vehicle
so difficult to manufacture that the cost increases by far outweighed
any operational savings. it also wrapped the structural capability of
the aircraft very close to its performance envelope - thinner skins
oilcanned and flexed, the scalloped edges around fastener holes
reduced the fatigue life, and so on.
In a nutshell, while there are advantages to making stringent size and
weight requirements on your crew, simply making a tight, lightweight
design is not the complete answer.
I also have a bit of a problem with the physical requirements placed
on a crew. You have also to be concerned with whether or not a given
cew member can coe with possible extremes that could be encounteed
on a long-term mission. Coping with extremes of temperature, air
pressure, acceleration and the like, must also be considered when
choosing a crew. Would, for example, a person of a more delicate
stature be capable of enduring a longer or more rigorous work schedule?
Where does the cut-off occur between body size and work rate?
Simply saying "Astronaut A is thirty percent lighter than Astronaut B,
so has a sixty percent less consumable rate" doesn't mean much if
Astronaut B can do twice the work in a given time and needs to take
fewer rest breaks.
Okay, sitting in the cabin of a spacecraft on a zero-g coast between
Earth and Mars is going to favour the lightweight crew member. But
lugging bits of gear about on the surface of Mars when they get there
is going to put a much greater strain on the smaller guy. The
enclosed-volume-to-mass of a big space suit going to be a lot easier on
the big guy than the little one, especially if things like backpacks and
power supplies are standardised.
I worked on the design of the cockpit of the Royal Australian Air Force
Hawk fast jet trainer. Up until then most of our customers had been on
the small side, and in the "one size fits all" aircraft our major worry
was whether we could wind the rudder pedals far back enough for the
aircrew to reach them. It was a bit of a culture shock to suddenly have
to find room in this little aircraft for the six-footers that the Aussies
were recruiting into their air force. As it is, I'm still worried that their
heads are a touch too close for comfort to the explosive cutting strips
fitted to the inside of the canopy
Like they say, size (in either direction) isn't everything.
Just a thought.
Robin Hill, STEAMY BESS, Brough, East Yorkshire.
--
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
Home Page: < http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html >
Sites: * Fortean Times * Mystic's Haven * TLCB *
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veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]
From spike66 at comcast.net Thu Sep 1 05:59:50 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 22:59:50 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] Re: Are dwarfs better for
longduration spaceflight?]
In-Reply-To: <431689B4.3050908@mindspring.com>
Message-ID: <200509010601.j8161kw31304@tick.javien.com>
>
> "Terry W. Colvin" fnarded:
>
...
>
> Designing for absolute minimum weight aerospace vehicles is fraught
> with problems...
Granted, however we are discussing only *scaling* as a function
of the needs of the astronaut. This exercise is not about shaving
close to the margin; the margin is the same for the smaller
vehicle as it is for the larger.
My notion is that under these extreme conditions, we can
make a spherical hab module with a diameter about four times
the height of the astronaut. Not roomy, but survivable. The
notion then is that the diameter of the sphere scales with
the height of the astronaut, and if so, the mass scales as
the cube of that height, and if so, finding the smallest
astronaut is everything.
> ... While a measure of weight as saved, it made the vehicle
> so difficult to manufacture that the cost increases by far outweighed
> any operational savings...
Of course, but manufacturing constraints in aircraft,
where you are making many, are not directly comparable
to manufacturing constraints in spacecraft where you
are making one or two.
> ... - thinner skins
> oilcanned and flexed...
Not applicable to a spherical shell.
> ...the scalloped edges around fastener holes
> reduced the fatigue life, and so on...
Generally not applicable to spacecraft. You would load up the
sphere, insert the hapless astronaut, then weld the
hatch closed. When she returns, the reentry vehicle
would be attached and the hatch cut open.
> In a nutshell, while there are advantages to making stringent size and
> weight requirements on your crew, simply making a tight, lightweight
> design is not the complete answer...
OK, but spacecraft are not aircraft. I agree with all that
is stated here for planes.
>
> I also have a bit of a problem with the physical requirements placed
> on a crew. You have also to be concerned with whether or not a given
> cew member can coe with possible extremes that could be encounteed
> on a long-term mission...
I grant you that it will take a very special person to
pull this off. We have 6e9 people on this planet from
which to choose. I think this special person exists somewhere.
> Would, for example, a person of a more delicate
> stature be capable of enduring a longer or more rigorous work schedule?
Yes, I think this durable little person exists somewhere. Her
job is a lot like a video game. I see little correlation
between physical size and endurance at a video game console.
>
> Okay, sitting in the cabin of a spacecraft on a zero-g coast between
> Earth and Mars is going to favour the lightweight crew member. But
> lugging bits of gear about on the surface of Mars when they get there
> is going to put a much greater strain on the smaller guy...
Ja I should have defined this mission more carefully. There
is no lugging stuff around on the surface in this scenario. The
mission is to insert into Martian synchronous orbit for a little over
two years, during which the astronaut guides robots on the
surface which build things that humans will later use: manufacturing
facilities, a pressure vessel for growing plants and living in,
etc. After 2.4 years, the craft leaves Mars orbit, injects into LEO,
docks with a reentry vehicle and comes home.
We can carry enough delta V to do all this with current
technology. In 2.4 years, she should be able to get some
cool stuff accomplished.
> ...
> Like they say, size (in either direction) isn't everything...
In aircraft, I agree. In Mars missions, size matters more
than anything.
spike
ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
From amara at amara.com Thu Sep 1 06:31:16 2005
From: amara at amara.com (Amara Graps)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 08:31:16 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
Message-ID:
spike:
>ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
>flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
Yes, it is bad.
And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
reported?)
And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
example).
Amara
--
********************************************************************
Amara Graps, PhD email: amara at amara.com
Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/
********************************************************************
"In my opinion, television validates existence." --Calvin
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 07:18:34 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 00:18:34 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] Re: Are dwarfs better for
longduration spaceflight?]
In-Reply-To: <200509010601.j8161kw31304@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050901071834.89005.qmail@web60523.mail.yahoo.com>
--- spike wrote:
> Ja I should have defined this mission more
> carefully. There
> is no lugging stuff around on the surface in this
> scenario. The
> mission is to insert into Martian synchronous orbit
> for a little over
> two years, during which the astronaut guides robots
> on the
> surface which build things that humans will later
> use: manufacturing
> facilities, a pressure vessel for growing plants and
> living in,
> etc. After 2.4 years, the craft leaves Mars orbit,
> injects into LEO,
> docks with a reentry vehicle and comes home.
You should have said this first. Mission
specifications mean everything in picking an ideal
crew. If this is the case then an overachieving midget
or a paraplegic person would be ideal. I know of many
amputees capable of walking on their hands. I do not
understand why you think it ought to be woman as upper
body strength especially in a paraplegic might be
important.
> We can carry enough delta V to do all this with
> current
> technology. In 2.4 years, she should be able to get
> some
> cool stuff accomplished.
>
> In aircraft, I agree. In Mars missions, size
> matters more
> than anything.
It depends entirely on the mission objectives. For an
actual planet-fall mission, a diverse crew in body
types, sexes, specialties, and skill sets would be
ideal. To have an all midget crew in this circumstance
would be tempting natural selection by lack of
diversity. It would be essentially putting all our
eggs in one basket. They could all remain in a sedated
sleep for the trip there. The mission doctor could be
a midget and stay awake for the trip to take care of
the crew and awaken them upon arrival. During the trip
there, the sleepers would require little more than a
closets worth of space. Anyways, your midget fetish
makes a little more sense now, Spike. ;) I actually
know a midget deliveryman at work. He delivers dry ice
to all the labs on campus and routinely hauls several
hundreds of pounds of dry ice around. He is very
strong for his size. If he has other appropriate
skills and talents, he might be an ideal candidate.
>
> ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn
> that
> flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
I agree. But lots of people are doing great things now
for their fellows. The point of tragedy is that it
must be overcome and it brings out the best in our
species. I do object to them pulling cops away from
search and rescue to keep starving people from looting
abandoned stores in New Orleans. If the store owners
object so much, why don't they come to work and man
the register? I am sure a lot of those people would
happily pay for their food, if they had that option.
I for one would do whatever it took to survive.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
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Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
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From sjatkins at mac.com Thu Sep 1 08:25:29 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 01:25:29 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID:
Are we so busy worrying our egos about our or their fairness that we
are not present to the horror or loss of any and/or all deaths?
Evolved primates (probably evolved any old sentient) will feel the
loss most keenly for those of nearest relationship. That would be a
great start if we really felt it, down to the bone, and did not
forget or distract ourselves with side issues.
- samantha
On Aug 31, 2005, at 11:31 PM, Amara Graps wrote:
> spike:
>
>> ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
>> flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
>>
>
> Yes, it is bad.
>
> And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> reported?)
>
> And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
>
> Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
> news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
> don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
> example).
>
> Amara
>
> --
>
> ********************************************************************
> Amara Graps, PhD email: amara at amara.com
> Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
> Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/
> ********************************************************************
> "In my opinion, television validates existence." --Calvin
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From eugen at leitl.org Thu Sep 1 10:42:37 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 12:42:37 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID: <20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org>
On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 01:25:29AM -0700, Samantha Atkins wrote:
> Are we so busy worrying our egos about our or their fairness that we
> are not present to the horror or loss of any and/or all deaths?
> Evolved primates (probably evolved any old sentient) will feel the
> loss most keenly for those of nearest relationship. That would be a
> great start if we really felt it, down to the bone, and did not
> forget or distract ourselves with side issues.
Since we cannot yet change us to feel so, crude ratio-level patches
such as periodic reminding us that coverage is frequently biased is the only
available solution.
FWIW, though this snafu is greatly overreported in comparison to
the tsunami catastrophe, it is vastly underreported in the mass media
(I'm tracking this third-hand from a critical care/relief POV) in
regards to the severity and accumulating damage trainwreck. A strong
sentiment from those in the trenches is outrage in regards to lack of
preparedness and incompetence and slowness in relief. Here's hope that
heads will roll.
It is really quite awful, and most U.S. folks are not getting it yet.
Now back to our regular programme of lunacy, and mental masturbation.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From natasha at natasha.cc Thu Sep 1 12:14:31 2005
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 07:14:31 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] AID to ExI members & other Transhumanists in LA, MS,
AL
Message-ID: <6.2.1.2.2.20050901070706.047bfd30@pop-server.austin.rr.com>
I am re-posting this message because we have had a number of responses from
transhumanists who are offering their homes for people to stay, and other
types of assistance.
But I have not heard if anyone knows of transhumanists who live in the
areas that were affected by Katrina. I urge you to please contact me or
info at extropy.org if you know of anyone who needs help or have other
suggestions to provide care for our members, friends and family members in
this devastated region.
Thank you,
Natasha
>Transhumanists -
>
>If you know of anyone who is located in New Orleans and other areas on
>Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama who may need help, please contact the
>Transhumanist Care program at Extropy Institute by sending email to
>info at extropy.org
>
>I am not sure at this time what we can do, but I do know that if there are
>transhumanists who are without homes, cloths, etc., we will do our best to
>figure something out to help them. (There are ExI members throughout the
>southern states who may be available to help.)
>
>
>Many thanks,
>
>Natasha Vita-More
>President Extropy Institute
>Transhumanist Care Program
NatashaVita-More
Cultural Strategist, Designer
Studies of the Future, University of Houston
President, Extropy Institute
Founder, Transhumanist Arts & Culture
Knowledge is the most democratic source of power. Alvin Toffler
Random acts of kindness... Anne Herbet
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From iph1954 at msn.com Thu Sep 1 13:21:20 2005
From: iph1954 at msn.com (MIKE TREDER)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 09:21:20 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] C-R-Newsletter #33
Message-ID:
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Newsletter #33
August 31, 2005
To read this on the Web, with nice formatting and hyperlinks, go to
http://www.crnano.org/archive05.htm#33
CONTENTS
- CRN Forms Policy Task Force
- Eric Drexler Joins Nanorex
- Connecticut Schools Go Nano
- NASA Website Covers CRN Work
- CRN Goes to Vermont
- CRN Goes to Chicago
- CRN Goes to Bootcamp
- Dimensions of Development
- 13th Foresight Conference
- Feature Essay: Molecular Manufacturing Design Software
==========
We?re a little late getting the C-R-Newsletter out this month, but as
you can see, we?ve been extremely busy. To keep up with the latest
happenings on a daily basis, be sure to check our Responsible
Nanotechnology weblog at http://CRNano.typepad.com/
NOTE: In the items below, links are indicated with [brackets], and shown
at the end of each item.
CRN Forms Policy Task Force
The big news this month is that [CRN announced] the formation of a new
Global Task Force to study the societal implications of advanced
nanotechnology. Bringing together a diverse group of world-class experts
from multiple disciplines, CRN will lead an historic, collaborative
effort to develop comprehensive policy recommendations for the safe and
responsible use of molecular manufacturing.
Just [two weeks] after the initial announcement, which mentioned four
?charter members? of the CRN Task Force, we're up to 39 participants
from six different countries. In addition, three organizations are
publicly supporting this effort: the Society of Manufacturing Engineers,
the Society of Police Futurists International, and the Nanotechnology
Now web portal.
Several online planning sessions have been held, and the CRN Task Force
is now beginning its initial task: to itemize the necessary information
that must be available in order to design wise and effective policy.
http://www.crnano.org/PR-charter.htm
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/08/crn_task_force_.html
Eric Drexler Joins Nanorex
Nanorex, a molecular engineering software company based in Michigan, has
named [Dr. K. Eric Drexler] as the company?s Chief Technical Advisor.
[The company] said that Drexler will play a leading role in shaping
Nanorex's product strategy and advancing the company?s academic outreach
programs.
Often described as the 'father of nanotechnology', Eric Drexler is on
the [Board of Advisors] for CRN. His groundbreaking theoretical research
has been the basis for three books, including [?Nanosystems: Molecular
Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation?], and numerous journal
articles. Last year, he collaborated with Chris Phoenix, CRN's Director
of Research, on [?Safe Exponential Manufacturing?], published in the
Institute of Physics journal ?Nanotechnology.?
In 1986, Drexler founded the [Foresight Nanotech Institute], a
non-profit think tank and public interest organization focused on
nanotechnology. He was awarded a PhD from MIT in Molecular
Nanotechnology (the first degree of its kind). Drexler is expected to be
deeply involved in the project to develop a [Technology Roadmap for
Productive Nanosystems], recently announced by Foresight and the
Battelle research organization.
http://e-drexler.com/p/idx04/00/0404drexlerBioCV.html
http://www.nanorex.com/
http://www.crnano.org/about_us.htm#Advisors
http://www.crnano.org/5min.htm
http://www.crnano.org/papers.htm#Goo
http://www.foresight.org/
http://www.foresight.org/cms/press_center/128
Connecticut Schools Go Nano
Connecticut Governor M. Jodi Rell has enacted a [new law] requiring the
Commissioner of Higher Education in her state to review the inclusion of
nanotechnology, molecular manufacturing and advanced and developing
technologies at institutions of higher education.
CRN is pleased to note that this measure specifically designates
molecular manufacturing as something that should be studied for
inclusion in the curriculum at institutions of higher education. We
encourage other states -- and indeed, other countries -- to follow
Connecticut's lead.
http://tinyurl.com/aljbt
NASA Website Covers CRN Work
The NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), an independent,
NASA-funded organization located in Atlanta, Georgia, was created to
promote forward-looking research on radical space technologies that will
take 10 to 40 years to come to fruition. Last year, NIAC [awarded a
grant] to Chris Phoenix, CRN?s Director of Research, to conduct a
feasibility study of nanoscale manufacturing.
On NASA?s website, [an article] titled ?The Next Giant Leap? highlights
the work NIAC is funding in nanotechnology research, and includes a
description of the 112-page report Chris presented to them. We
congratulate Chris on this much-deserved recognition.
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2004/09/niac_funds_crn_.html
http://tinyurl.com/94luq
CRN Goes to Vermont
In late July, CRN principals Mike Treder and Chris Phoenix were invited
to participate in a [special workshop] on ?geoethical nanotechnology,?
held at a beautiful mountain retreat in Vermont. Our gracious host was
Martine Rothblatt, CEO of United Therapeutics Corporation, and founder
of the [Terasem Movement Foundation.]
Among those [making presentations] were Ray Kurzweil, CEO of Kurzweil
Technologies; Professor Frank Tipler of Tulane University; Douglas
Mulhall, author of ?Our Molecular Future?; and Dr. Barry Blumberg, a
Nobel Prize-winner in medicine and Founding Director of the NASA
Astrobiology Institute. CRN?s PowerPoint presentation for the event is
available online [here.]
Geoethical nanotechnology is defined as: the development and
implementation under a global regulatory framework of machines capable
of assembling molecules into a wide variety of objects, in a broad range
of sizes, and in potentially vast quantities.
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/about_geoethica.html
http://terasemfoundation.org/about.htm
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/applications_an.html
http://www.terasemfoundation.org/webcast/ppt/Treder.ppt
CRN Goes to Chicago
Also in July, CRN Executive Director Mike Treder gave talks at two
events in Chicago. First, at a special [nanotech symposium], Mike
delivered a presentation called [?The Flat Horizon Problem:
Nanotechnology on an Upward Slope?].
Then, during the annual conference of the World Future Society, Mike
made a speech titled, [?Do Sweat the Small Stuff: Why Everyone Should
Care About Nanotechnology?]. The conference, [WorldFuture 2005:
Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy], was managed excellently and
enjoyed huge attendance.
http://www.crnano.org/SymposiumonNanotechnology_July05,Chicago_.pdf
http://www.crnano.org/Speech%20-%20Upward%20Slope.ppt
http://www.crnano.org/Speech%20-%20WFS%20-%20Web%20Version.ppt
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/08/wfs_conference_.html
CRN Goes to Bootcamp
In mid-July, CRN Research Director Chris Phoenix spent four days in
Washington DC at a [Nano Training Bootcamp] sponsored by the ASME. He
called it ?quite a brain-stretcher.? Topics included quantum mechanics,
optics, thermoelectrics, nanolithography, and much more. Chris provided
us with extensive blog reports during the event, so you can read about
all the tech-talk from [Day One], [Day Two], [Day Three], and [Day Four].
http://www.asmeconferences.org/nanobootcamp05/speakers.cfm
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/nano_training_b.html
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/asme_nano_bootc.html
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/asme_nano_bootc_1.html
http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2005/07/asme_nano_bootc_2.html
Dimensions of Development
Many factors will determine how soon and how safely molecular
manufacturing is integrated into society, including where, how openly,
and how rapidly it is developed. Because nanotech manufacturing could be
so disruptive and destabilizing, it is essential that we learn as much
as possible about those factors and others. The more we know, the better
we may be able to guide and manage this revolutionary transformation.
Mike Treder?s [latest essay] for ?Future Brief? describes six different
dimensions ? Number, Style, Venue, Approach, Program, and Pace ? along
which molecular manufacturing may be developed. Making effective policy
for the safe and responsible use of advanced nanotechnology will require
a deep and comprehensive understanding of all six dimensions. To be
effective, a coordinated and integrated strategy of multiple
complimentary policies must be designed and implemented. (Note: At the
time the essay was published, the [CRN Global Task Force on Implications
and Policy] had not yet been announced.)
http://www.futurebrief.com/miketrederdimensions004.asp
http://www.crnano.org/PR-charter.htm
13th Foresight Conference
CRN is proud to be a media sponsor for the [13th Foresight Conference]
on Advanced Nanotechnology. The title of the conference this year is
"Advancing Beneficial Nanotechnology: Focusing on the Cutting Edge," and
it will be divided into three stand-alone, complementary sessions ?
Vision, Applications & Policy, and Research ? spread over six days.
The conference is October 22-27, 2005, in San Francisco, California.
They've got a great lineup of speakers, so we hope to see you there.
http://foresight.org/conference2005/index.html
Feature Essay: Molecular Manufacturing Design Software
Chris Phoenix, Director of Research, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Nanofactories, controlled by computerized blueprints, will be able to
build a vast range of high performance products. However, efficient
product design will require advanced software.
Different kinds of products will require different approaches to design.
Some, such as high-performance supercomputers and advanced medical
devices, will be packed with functionality and will require large
amounts of research and invention. For these products, the hardest part
of design will be knowing what you want to build in the first place. The
ability to build test hardware rapidly and inexpensively will make it
easier to do the necessary research, but that is not the focus of this
essay.
There are many products that we easily could imagine and that a
nanofactory easily could build if told exactly how. But as any computer
programmer knows, it's not easy to tell a computer what you want it to
do?it's more or less like trying to direct a blind person to cook a meal
in an unfamiliar kitchen. One mistake, and the food is spilled or the
stove catches fire.
Computer users have an easier time of it. To continue the analogy, if
the blind person had become familiar with the kitchen, instructions
could be given on the level of ?Get the onions from the left-hand
vegetable drawer? rather than ?Move your hand two inches to your
right... a bit more... pull the handle... bend down and reach forward...
farther... open the drawer... feel the round things?? It is the job of
the programmer to write the low-level instructions that create
appliances from obstacles.
Another advantage of modern computers, from the user's point of view, is
their input devices. Instead of typing a number, a user can simply move
a mouse, and a relatively simple routine can translate its motion into
the desired number, and the number into the desired operation such as
moving a pointer or a scroll bar.
Suppose I wanted to design a motorcycle. Today, I would have to do
engineering to determine stresses and strains, and design a structure to
support them. The engineering would have to take into account the
materials and fasteners, which in turn would have to be designed for
inexpensive assembly. But these choices would limit the material
properties, perhaps requiring several iterations of design. And that's
just for the frame.
Next, I would have to choose components for a suspension system,
configure an engine, add an electrical system and a braking system, and
mount a fuel tank. Then, I would have to design each element of the user
interface, from the seat to the handgrips to the lights behind the dials
on the instrument panel. Each thing the user would see or touch would
have to be made attractive, and simultaneously specified in a way that
could be molded or shaped. And each component would have to stay out of
the way of the others: the engine would have to fit inside the frame,
the fuel tank might have to be molded to avoid the cylinder heads or the
battery, and the brake lines would have to be routed from the handlebars
and along the frame, adding expense to the manufacturing process and
complexity to the design process.
As I described in lat month?s essay, most nanofactory-built human-scale
products will be mostly empty space due to the awesomely high
performance of both active and passive components. It will not be
necessary to worry much about keeping components out of each other's
way, because the components will be so small that they can be put almost
anywhere. This means that, for example, the frame can be designed
without worrying where the motor will be, because the motor will be a
few microns of nanoscale motors lining the axles. Rather than routing
large hydraulic brake lines, it will be possible to run highly redundant
microscopic signal lines controlling the calipers?or more likely, the
regenerative braking functionality built into the motors.
It will not be necessary to worry about design for manufacturability.
With a planar-assembly nanofactory, almost any shape can be made as
easily as any other, because the shapes are made by adding sub-micron
nanoblocks to selected locations in a supported plane of the growing
product. There will be less constraint on form than there is in sand
casting of metals, and of course far more precision. This also means
that what is built can contain functional components incorporated in the
structure. Rather than building a frame and mounting other pieces later,
the frame can be built with all components installed, forming a complete
product. This does require functional joints between nanoblocks, but
this is a small price to pay for such flexibility.
To specify functionality of a product, in many cases it will be
sufficient to describe the desired functionality in the abstract without
worrying about its physical implementation. If every cubic millimeter of
the product contains a networked computer?which is quite possible, and
may be the default?then to send a signal from point A to point B
requires no more than specifying the points. Distributing energy or even
transporting materials may not require much more attention: a rapidly
rotating diamond shaft can transport more than a watt per square micron,
and would be small enough to route automatically through almost any
structure; pipes can be made significantly smaller if they are
configured with continually inverting liners to reduce drag.
Thus, to design the acceleration and braking behavior of the motorcycle,
it might be enough to specify the desired torque on the wheels as a
function of speed, tire skidding, and brake and throttle position. A
spreadsheet-like interface could calculate the necessary power and force
for the motors, and from that derive the necessary axle thickness. The
battery would be fairly massive, so the user would position it, but
might not have to worry about the motor-battery connection, and
certainly should not have to design the motor controller.
In order to include high-functionality materials such as motor arrays or
stress-reporting materials, it would be necessary to start with a
library of well-characterized ?virtual materials? with standard
functionality. This approach could significantly reduce the functional
density of the virtual material compared to what would be possible with
a custom-designed solution, but this would be acceptable for many
applications, because functional density of nano-built equipment may be
anywhere from six to eighteen orders of magnitude better than today's
equipment. Virtual materials could also be used to specify material
properties such as density and elasticity over a wide range, or
implement active materials that changed attributes such as color or
shape under software control.
Prototypes as well as consumer products could be heavily instrumented,
warning of unexpected operating conditions such as excessive stress or
wear on any part. Rather than careful calculations to determine the
tradeoff between weight and strength, it might be better to build a
first-guess model, try it on increasingly rough roads at increasingly
high speeds, and measure rather than calculate the required strength.
Once some parameters had been determined, a new version could be
spreadsheeted and built in an hour or so at low cost. It would be
unnecessary to trade time for money by doing careful calculations to
minimize the number of prototypes. Then, for a low-performance
application like a motorcycle, the final product could be built ten
times stronger than was thought to be necessary without sacrificing much
mass or cost.
There are only a few sources of shape requirements. One is geometrical:
round things roll, flat things stack, and triangles make good trusses.
These shapes tend to be simple to specify, though some applications like
fluid handling can require intricate curves. The second source of shape
is compatibility with other shapes, as in a piece that must fit snugly
to another piece. These shapes can frequently be input from existing
databases or scanned from an existing object. A third source of shape is
user preference. A look at the shapes of pen barrels, door handles, and
eyeglasses shows that users are pleased by some pretty idiosyncratic
shapes.
To input arbitrary shapes into the blueprint, it may be useful to have
some kind of interface that implements or simulates a moldable material
like clay or taffy. A blob could simply be molded or stretched into a
pleasing shape. Another useful technique could be to present the
designer or user with several variations on a theme, let them select the
best one, and build new variations on that until a sufficiently pleasing
version is produced.
Although there is more to product design than the inputs described here,
this should give some flavor of how much more convenient it could be
with computer-controlled rapid prototyping of complete products. Elegant
computer-input devices, pervasive instrumentation and signal processing,
virtual material libraries, inexpensive creation of one-off
spreadsheeted prototypes, and several other techniques could make
product design more like a combination of graphic arts and computer
programming than the complex, slow, and expensive process it is today.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
FUNDRAISING ALERT!
Recent developments in efforts to roadmap the technical steps toward
molecular manufacturing make the work of CRN more important than ever.
It is critical that we examine the global implications of this rapidly
emerging technology, and begin designing wise and effective policy.
That?s why we have formed the CRN Task Force.
But it won?t be easy. We need to grow, and rapidly, to meet the
expanding challenge.
Your donation to CRN will help us to achieve that growth.
We rely largely on individual donations and small grants for our survival.
To make a contribution on-line click this link >
https://secure.groundspring.org/dn/index.php?aid=5594
This is important work and we welcome your participation.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Fine Print:
The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology(TM) is an affiliate of World
Care(R), an international, non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization. All
donations to CRN are handled through World Care. The opinions expressed
by CRN do not necessarily reflect those of World Care.
Sign up for a FREE subscription to the C-R-Newsletter --
http://crnano.org/contact.htm#Newsletter
From spike66 at comcast.net Thu Sep 1 15:01:07 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 08:01:07 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <200509011503.j81F37w30017@tick.javien.com>
Amara wrote:
> And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> reported?)
>
> And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
>
> Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
> news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
> don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
> example).
>
> Amara
They did mention it, but didn't really get to the
point. Reuters:
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=uri:2005
-08-31T135023Z_01_DIT131351_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-IRAQ-DC.XML&pageNumber=0&summit=
The important point of this tragedy is that now
the terrorists have figured out a way to slay huge
numbers of the other guys without a bomb and without
a conspiracy: one guy could do it and probably
wouldn't even get trampled or caught, since he
would be at the rear of the stampede.
Next time the other guys are having one of their
gatherings, such as that exercise where they
hurl rocks at the devil (?) I fear someone will
begin shouting "He has a bomb! Run for your lives!"
That particular exercise already caused numerous
deaths by trampling, without anyone deliberately
starting it.
Terrorists could start fatal stampedes here by
offering cheap Apple computers:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/08/16/computer.frenzy.ap/
We humans are weird apes.
spike
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Thu Sep 1 15:47:37 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 10:47:37 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
References:
Message-ID: <004001c5af0c$7afe6d50$0100a8c0@kevin>
There's more to it than perspective. First of all, coverage is naturally
going to be better where it is easier to cover.
There is also the ongoing nature of the tradgedy - The people are still
dying. They are starving and dehydrating at this very moment.
Sansationalism plays a key - many would expect such a disaster in a 3rd
world country, but not in a major metropolitan US city.
ANd there is the "tribe" mentality. People are naturally going to be more
concerned about there own tribe, therefore US journalists are only naturally
going to be more concerned about US tradgedies.
There's a lot of thought out there that 3rd world countries choose to be the
way they are and that their problems are their own to solve.
Personally I was shocked at the lack of coverage in Liberia and our lack of
interest, but it's not the fault of the news organizations - it's the people
who watch the news. The people who turn it off if they aren;t seeing what
they want to see.
Combined, these things make it only natural that New Orleans is going to be
covered more than the Tsunami.
It has nothing to do with "fairness" since there is no such thing. The
problem lies in the education of the general population.
If people want to talk about fairness, where are Thailand and SIngapore
right now and why aren;t they here helping? What are their news
organizations covering? What about Asia, Africa, etc? Do you honestly think
any of them give a shit? I bet many across the world are laughing. Are they
concerned with fairness? Somehow I doubt it.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Samantha Atkins"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 3:25 AM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
> Are we so busy worrying our egos about our or their fairness that we
> are not present to the horror or loss of any and/or all deaths?
> Evolved primates (probably evolved any old sentient) will feel the
> loss most keenly for those of nearest relationship. That would be a
> great start if we really felt it, down to the bone, and did not
> forget or distract ourselves with side issues.
>
>
> - samantha
>
>
> On Aug 31, 2005, at 11:31 PM, Amara Graps wrote:
>
> > spike:
> >
> >> ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
> >> flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
> >>
> >
> > Yes, it is bad.
> >
> > And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> > during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> > reported?)
> >
> > And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
> >
> > Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
> > news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
> > don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
> > example).
> >
> > Amara
> >
> > --
> >
> > ********************************************************************
> > Amara Graps, PhD email: amara at amara.com
> > Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
> > Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/
> > ********************************************************************
> > "In my opinion, television validates existence." --Calvin
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 15:51:37 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 08:51:37 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050901155138.25561.qmail@web30705.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Amara Graps wrote:
> spike:
> >ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
> >flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
>
> Yes, it is bad.
>
> And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> reported?)
>
> And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
>
> Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
> news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
> don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
> example).
The mayor of New Orleans expects deaths in the thousands, IN NEW
ORLEANS alone. There are hundreds of miles of gulf coast impacted. Some
communities simply do not exist anymore, in the Biloxi area
specifically (100 dead already in Biloxi, count still going up).
Authorities have no idea what the death toll is simply because they are
not counting yet in the hardest flooded areas. They aren't even picking
up the dead, they are still focused on rescuing the living. They have
no idea how many people are dead in their submerged homes, or
suffocated in their attics.
For millions of people in that area, they are not merely without power
or water and living with soggy houses. Most are finding their homes
either gone, or still under 3-20 feet of sewage filled water. Their
places of work are destroyed. There are 60,000 people stranded in the
Superdome stadium in downtown New Orleans without power and are running
out of bottled water. There are now 3 million refugees evacuated from
New Orleans alone, and the mayor is saying the city will need to remain
evacuated for at least another month.
Here are some before and after satellite pictures:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/new-orleans-imagery.htm
Meanwhile, 8 of the nations major refineries are in that area and are
shut down. The two largest pipelines up the east coast are idle. Gas
prices went up $0.50 overnight in many areas, even 30 cents here in NH.
Experts say gas prices will go over $4.00/gallon. This is going to
trigger a national recession, which will have its own slow impact on
thousands of lives in deaths, poverty, and family destruction.
At the same time, I hear German newspaper Der Spiegel is quoting
Environmental Minister Juergen Trittin as saying, in an essay published
in the center-left daily Frankfurter Rundschau, the US deserved this
for its opposition to the Kyoto treaty.
http://medienkritik.typepad.com/blog/
Fuck Germany. Or at least fuck Trittin. Turns out such comments are to
be expected from his ilk. He was apparently a leader of the Central
Committee of the Kommunister Bund (a Maoist group) prior to his
entryist migration to the Green Party in
1982.http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:ksWYVxrRZU0J:www.mail-archive.com/marxism%40lists.panix.com/msg48585.html+trittin+kbw&hl=de&lr=lang_en
But Trittin isn't alone. Suddeutsche Zeitung and Die Tageszeitung, two
large-circulation left leaning papers, have echoed the accusations in
their own editorials.
If the rest of the world were as generous as the US has always been,
this: http://www.etherzone.com/2005/sent082905.shtml would be a
reality, instead of a sad satire on todays world.
To be fair, Canada has stepped up:
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/08/31/Canadian_relief_Katrina20050831.html
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20050831_katrina_template_050831/?hub=CTVNewsAt11
Russia has also offered aid:
http://www.tass.ru/eng/level2.html?NewsID=2367160&PageNum=0
But according to Blogs of War, there are no other known offers of
assistance from other nations:
http://www.blogsofwar.com/world_rushes_to_aid_katrinas_victims
Other notables: The BP Foundation (founded by British Petroleum) has
donated $1 million to the Red Cross for Katrina relief.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________
Yahoo! Mail for Mobile
Take Yahoo! Mail with you! Check email on your mobile phone.
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 15:55:28 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 08:55:28 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] Re: Are dwarfs better for
longduration spaceflight?]
In-Reply-To: <20050901071834.89005.qmail@web60523.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050901155528.11417.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- The Avantguardian wrote:
> You should have said this first. Mission
> specifications mean everything in picking an ideal
> crew. If this is the case then an overachieving midget
> or a paraplegic person would be ideal. I know of many
> amputees capable of walking on their hands. I do not
> understand why you think it ought to be woman as upper
> body strength especially in a paraplegic might be
> important.
Women have higher G tolerance, as well as higher tolerance against
motion sickness.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From amara at amara.com Thu Sep 1 16:27:02 2005
From: amara at amara.com (Amara Graps)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 18:27:02 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
Message-ID:
Me:
> And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> reported?)
>
> And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
>
Spike:
>They did mention it, but didn't really get to the point.
OK
>The important point of this tragedy is that now the terrorists have
>figured out a way to slay huge numbers of the other guys without a
>bomb and without a conspiracy: one guy could do it
Yes. That is what is so sad now. The 'amplification of fear' factor
is practically self-sustaining, and it doesn't take much to bring
about a tragedy of this scale.
BTW, despite my comment earlier about wishing that the America media
put this in perspective, it seems from what I've read today that the
economic consequences could be huge. And I don't like seeing people
in other governments (e.g. Schroeder) exploiting the New Orleans
tragedy in political ways. Nevertheless, I think that that the US
government will have a hard time with receiving aid. The view of the
US from countries outside has changed alot in the last 4 years. It's
hard to help a government that one despises, even though it is the
American people themselves, not the government, who will suffer.
Here's a bit of 'trivia' that someone pointed me to today,
a video, from January, from the PBS program "Nova":
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3204/02.html
The video fairly accurately predicted what was going to happen.
I wonder why the New Orleans area wasn't better prepared, given
that these dangers were so well-known.
Amara
--
********************************************************************
Amara Graps, PhD email: amara at amara.com
Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/
********************************************************************
"When you arise in the morning, think of what a precious privilege
it is to be alive--to breathe, to think, to enjoy, to love."
---Marcus Aurelius
From jpnitya at verizon.net Thu Sep 1 16:45:01 2005
From: jpnitya at verizon.net (Joao Magalhaes)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 12:45:01 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Caloric restriction benefits limited in humans
In-Reply-To: <6.2.1.2.0.20050831114755.01dd8980@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
References: <6.2.1.2.0.20050831114755.01dd8980@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
Message-ID: <6.1.1.1.2.20050901123103.0508d2c0@incoming.verizon.net>
A few people have recently come out against the benefits of CR in people,
including Aubrey. I'm a bit skeptical myself. I mean, I hope everybody
knows that a low calorie diet is healthier while a high calorie diet could
lead to obesity, diabetes, etc. That doesn't mean CR will work in people
the way it does in mice, which BTW are very short-lived animals and hence
the evolutionary forces acting on them to deal with periods of food
shortage may be different than in humans because these periods in mice will
be a larger proportion of the whole lifespan. My general advice is always
that people should take attention to what they eat but don't exaggerate. I
expect CR to make people live a little bit longer by decreasing the
incidence of a number of diseases, but whether CR will delay aging in
people like it does in mice is unlikely.
Joao
At 12:48 PM 31/8/2005, you wrote:
>[Robert Bradbury elsewhere sez:]
>
>John Phelan and Michael Rose have published an article in
>Ageing Research Reviews that indicates that caloric restriction
>in humans is probably of marginal benefit. See [1,2].
>
>Robert
>
>1.
>http://www.sciencedaily.com/print.php?url=/releases/2005/08/050830065729.htm
>2. Phelan JP, Rose MR, "Why dietary restriction substantially increases
>longevity
>in animal models but won't in humans." Ageing Res Rev. 4(3):339-50 (Aug
>2005).
>http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=16046282
>
>_______________________________________________
>extropy-chat mailing list
>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
From eugen at leitl.org Thu Sep 1 16:58:52 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 18:58:52 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID: <20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 06:27:02PM +0200, Amara Graps wrote:
> BTW, despite my comment earlier about wishing that the America media
> put this in perspective, it seems from what I've read today that the
> economic consequences could be huge. And I don't like seeing people
Economic consequences? It's just money. No amount of money can bring
back dead people. Comments a la "this is our Hiroshima" and "this is
our tsunami" and even "this is worse than the tsunami" (that's verbatim)
demonstrate a certain provincial arrogance to it.
A few thousands people are dead, sure, but this is in no way even
the same magnitude:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake#Casualties_in_historical_context
It's not important, unless it is ours that are hurting. It's a reporting
and empathy bias dwarfing Texas.
> in other governments (e.g. Schroeder) exploiting the New Orleans
> tragedy in political ways. Nevertheless, I think that that the US
He's just capitalizing on the fallout from Kyoto and ShrubCo's past policy.
It's not callousness, and definitely not schadenfreude, but
there's certainly a more detached view from the distance, and sure lots of lost
goodwill. Perceived reporting and (partly unrepentantly offensive)
perception bias is of course also not necessarily more endearing.
> government will have a hard time with receiving aid. The view of the
> US from countries outside has changed alot in the last 4 years. It's
> hard to help a government that one despises, even though it is the
> American people themselves, not the government, who will suffer.
Yep.
> Here's a bit of 'trivia' that someone pointed me to today,
> a video, from January, from the PBS program "Nova":
>
> http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3204/02.html
>
> The video fairly accurately predicted what was going to happen.
> I wonder why the New Orleans area wasn't better prepared, given
> that these dangers were so well-known.
Reliable sources say 80% of funding for NO infrastructure budget was cut
post 9/11. Another source says the NO mayor is not one of the
brightest specimens of humankind -- no idea whether this is true.
And of course there's the usual lack of compassion and leadership
by the main simian.
It's a mix of incompetence, corruption, and good old human
stupidity, as usual.
I'm reading Diamond's "Collapse" right now, there are plenty of lessons
to us in there. Technology is useless, if wielded by idiots.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From user at dhp.com Thu Sep 1 17:15:10 2005
From: user at dhp.com (user)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 13:15:10 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint
?
Message-ID:
The debate over peak oil and its related causes/effects/probabilities has
been discussed quite a bit on this list. I am curious if anyone has
looked at the likelihood of peak oil simply by observing the actions of
the parties that are likely to have the most perfect knowledge of the
subject ?
I was reading a text on game theory and related subjects recently and was
reminded of the notion that (greatly simplified) the closer one suspects
one is to the end of the game, the nastier one plays that game.
At the same time, I have noticed the US (and others?) playing nastier and
nastier at the game of oil politics over the course of my adulthood.
Certainly there are localized secrets in the oil industry, but in the
macro sense, I think it would be a good bet that the US Govt has the best
overall intelligence and knowledge of what is really happening in the
world.
Combine those two, and perhaps you have some good (albeit
indirect) evidence that peak oil is coming. Or at least that our leaders
think it is.
Before you respond, please note that I actually have no opinion on peak
oil - I have digested many good arguments on either side, and have
resigned myself to "further study" - as much as it can be said that
someone has no prejudice on a particular subject, I will claim that for
myself in relation to peak oil.
With that in mind ... comments ?
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 17:23:12 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 10:23:12 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
Message-ID: <20050901172312.84734.qmail@web30701.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a Hummer,
or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with 150 kW
beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design useful
on the battlefield
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 18:12:05 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 11:12:05 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050901181205.50729.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Amara Graps wrote:
>
> BTW, despite my comment earlier about wishing that the America media
> put this in perspective, it seems from what I've read today that the
> economic consequences could be huge. And I don't like seeing people
> in other governments (e.g. Schroeder) exploiting the New Orleans
> tragedy in political ways. Nevertheless, I think that that the US
> government will have a hard time with receiving aid. The view of the
> US from countries outside has changed alot in the last 4 years. It's
> hard to help a government that one despises, even though it is the
> American people themselves, not the government, who will suffer.
America sent millions to Iran after the Bam earthquakes. We spent
billions on the USSR helping them defend against Germany, then at the
height of the cold war we gave food aid. We gave lots of food aid to
North Korea. Many Americans send aid to Cuba. Americans seem to have
little problem differentiating the misery of people in other nations
from the despicability of their governments. Would that the rest of the
world were so noble.
I would suggest looking to David's Medienkritik blog:
http://medienkritik.typepad.com/blog/ for objective european analysis
of european left wing media irrationality.
>
> Here's a bit of 'trivia' that someone pointed me to today,
> a video, from January, from the PBS program "Nova":
>
> http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3204/02.html
>
> The video fairly accurately predicted what was going to happen.
> I wonder why the New Orleans area wasn't better prepared, given
> that these dangers were so well-known.
New Orleans has been getting cuts in federal flood control funds since
the Clinton administration. Clinton said that flooding is a local
problem to be solved by local funding. The problem with New Orleans is
that it has been a democrat controlled city intent on spending, -
wasting -, millions of dollars on frivolous anti-gun lawsuits against
gun makers for the crimes of criminals, and millions on welfare
programs and bread and circuses, while ignoring its responsibilities to
its citizens need for flood control.
The Army Corps of Engineers isn't much better. Since it built the
original levee system, it has been bogged down by environmentalist
imposed wetlands protection mandates that have been abused by many land
owners. This:
http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/Trans/hpw104-13.000/hpw104-13_4.HTM
reflects congressional testimony from 1995 on how the "404 System" is
abused by property owners who don't want development and want to
interfere in their neighbors. The Corps has become the de facto
property police, judge, and jury for the entire delta area and has many
millions a year wasted on these frivolous legal actions that wind up
costing property owners lots of legal costs as well.
It also turns out that environmentalists have been blocking levee
modernization as well as Corps construction of a Hurricane Barrier that
would have prevented this disaster. Specifically, SOWL, Save Our
Wetlands, sued
(http://saveourwetlands.org/edenislehistory.htm#lemieux2) to prevent
the construction of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane
Barrier Project. So you can put the blame for this on the loony left,
once again.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From astapp at amazeent.com Thu Sep 1 18:51:35 2005
From: astapp at amazeent.com (Acy James Stapp)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 11:51:35 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
Message-ID: <725F1C117A3EF440A4190D786B8053FE056D6863@amazemail2.amazeent.com>
Don't forget that the disappearing wetlands serve as a natural
buffer against hurricanes by soaking up storm surge. According to
http://hurricane.lsu.edu/_in_the_news/phillyinquirer100804.htm
four miles of marsh can absorb a foot of storm surge. Katrina
had an estimated 20ft surge.
===================================================
Mike Lorrey wrote:
The Army Corps of Engineers isn't much better. Since it built the
original levee system, it has been bogged down by environmentalist
imposed wetlands protection mandates that have been abused by many land
owners. This:
http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/Trans/hpw104-13.000/hpw104-13_4.HTM
reflects congressional testimony from 1995 on how the "404 System" is
abused by property owners who don't want development and want to
interfere in their neighbors. The Corps has become the de facto
property police, judge, and jury for the entire delta area and has many
millions a year wasted on these frivolous legal actions that wind up
costing property owners lots of legal costs as well.
It also turns out that environmentalists have been blocking levee
modernization as well as Corps construction of a Hurricane Barrier that
would have prevented this disaster. Specifically, SOWL, Save Our
Wetlands, sued
(http://saveourwetlands.org/edenislehistory.htm#lemieux2) to prevent
the construction of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane
Barrier Project. So you can put the blame for this on the loony left,
once again.
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 19:44:28 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 12:44:28 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Towards Higher Quality, was: ping - please ignore
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050901194429.99010.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
I for one miss the old Extropy magazine, both the print and online
versions. They gave an outlet for high quality, in depth, well reasoned
articles by extropic writers for like-minded to keep abreast of the
movement without having to wade through a lot of diluted pap and
sniping on email lists.
Rather than an 'extropy-great' list, I'd suggest instead that we form a
committee moderated blog that folks can forward posts and articles of
interest to, people can comment on, trackback, etc. etc. and move ExI
technology forward. Email lists are getting so last century.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From sjatkins at mac.com Thu Sep 1 20:03:11 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 13:03:11 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To: <20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
References:
<20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID:
On Sep 1, 2005, at 9:58 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 06:27:02PM +0200, Amara Graps wrote:
>
>
>> BTW, despite my comment earlier about wishing that the America media
>> put this in perspective, it seems from what I've read today that the
>> economic consequences could be huge. And I don't like seeing people
>>
>
> Economic consequences? It's just money. No amount of money can bring
> back dead people.
This is surely not the point. There are many severe weaknesses in
the US economic situation. I would give an 80% probability of an
economic downturn worse than 1987 in the next year. I would give 90%
odds of an economic downturn of more than Great Depression magnitude
before 2010. This level of economic event can cause very major
disruption of all of our plans, dreams and hopes and ruin millions of
lives. Major economic crises also can lead to major wars. This is
not "just money" or in the least unimportant. Economic chaos of
sufficient magnitude leads to a lot more dead people.
- samantha
From eugen at leitl.org Thu Sep 1 20:53:03 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 22:53:03 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
References:
<20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <20050901205303.GB2249@leitl.org>
On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 01:03:11PM -0700, Samantha Atkins wrote:
> This is surely not the point. There are many severe weaknesses in
> the US economic situation. I would give an 80% probability of an
I don't know what's going to happen, but if anything Big Bad happens
it won't be because of a mere hurricane wreck. It would be but a trigger.
I'm really recommending Jared Diamond's "Collapse". It's very pop science, and
there are purportedly much better books, but this doesn't mean it doesn't
contain applicable meta level diagnostics and algorithms.
> economic downturn worse than 1987 in the next year. I would give 90%
> odds of an economic downturn of more than Great Depression magnitude
> before 2010. This level of economic event can cause very major
> disruption of all of our plans, dreams and hopes and ruin millions of
I much agree that We're Having Problems, which at best are delaying things
considerably already. What do we do about it, though? We here, on
this list? I can't see anything useful beyond personal scope plans.
Being part of a solution catalyst would mean succeeding beyond the wildest
dreams.
> lives. Major economic crises also can lead to major wars. This is
> not "just money" or in the least unimportant. Economic chaos of
> sufficient magnitude leads to a lot more dead people.
Military conflicts is both a cause of collapse and a terminal diagnostic.
Many things must be already have gone to the crapper before resource
distribution wars break out, and when they do the curtain is soon to
follow.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Thu Sep 1 22:24:10 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:24:10 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050901172312.84734.qmail@web30701.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050901172312.84734.qmail@web30701.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
>
> The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a Hummer,
> or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with 150 kW
> beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design useful
> on the battlefield
>
Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar rounds etc
in carbon fibre mat.
I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped dead by it.
Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
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From pharos at gmail.com Thu Sep 1 22:40:19 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:40:19 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To: <725F1C117A3EF440A4190D786B8053FE056D6863@amazemail2.amazeent.com>
References: <725F1C117A3EF440A4190D786B8053FE056D6863@amazemail2.amazeent.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05, Acy James Stapp wrote:
> Don't forget that the disappearing wetlands serve as a natural
> buffer against hurricanes by soaking up storm surge. According to
> http://hurricane.lsu.edu/_in_the_news/phillyinquirer100804.htm
> four miles of marsh can absorb a foot of storm surge. Katrina
> had an estimated 20ft surge.
>
See:
New Orleans disaster serves up a tough lesson on environment
Twice in eight months, Nature has given Man a brutal lesson about the
cost of disrespect. Last December 26, beachfront resorts in Thailand
were swept away by a tsunami that could have been tamed if developers
had not destroyed coral reefs and ripped up mangroves, a natural
bulwark against killer waves.
On August 29, Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans, a city built
below sealevel, sustained by a complex system of dams and whose buffer
against storm surges, the wetlands of the Mississippi Delta, had been
eroded by reckless development.
---------------------------------
Rather than blame everything (even bad weather!) on those evil left
wing pinko communists, it looks to me as though rampant free market
developers are far more to blame. Making as much money as they can
while destroying 'the commons'.
BillK
From hal at finney.org Thu Sep 1 22:21:19 2005
From: hal at finney.org (Hal Finney)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 15:21:19 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
Message-ID: <20050901222119.A1DC057EF5@finney.org>
user writes:
> The debate over peak oil and its related causes/effects/probabilities has
> been discussed quite a bit on this list. I am curious if anyone has
> looked at the likelihood of peak oil simply by observing the actions of
> the parties that are likely to have the most perfect knowledge of the
> subject ?
Sure, in fact that is one of the strongest arguments against Peak Oil.
Who are the insiders who would know if we were about to peak in oil
production? Well, how about the oil companies? They should have plenty
of inside information.
What would you do if you owned an oil well and knew that the world was
about to hit a supply/demand crunch in oil? Wouldn't that imply that
oil prices are likely to shoot up incredibly high? There was a widely
discussed article in the New York Times last week where Peak Oil analyst
Matthew Simpson bet that oil would hit $200/barrel by 2010.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/opinion/23tierney.html
or
http://www.iht.com/protected/articles/2005/08/23/opinion/edtierney.php
If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that much
in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It would
be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum necessary to
cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far more
valuable than it is today.
The thing is, we don't see that. Insiders act as if they believe that
today's oil prices are the best they will see in a while. They are pumping
and selling oil as fast as they can.
And it's not just oil producers. The speculators and hedgers acting
in the futures market see the same thing. You can buy a contract today
for oil to be delivered in 2010 and lock in a price. What do you think
that price is? It's not $200, and it's not $100. It's not even today's
price of $70 or so. It's more like $62/barrel, considerably LOWER than
today's prices. You can lock in that price today and protect yourself
against any price rises between now and 2010.
If insiders knew that these prices were unrealistic, they could take
positions in the futures market and make enormous profits in a few years.
But by their actions they would drive up the prices of the futures
contracts, and we don't see that.
If you look at Peak Oil websites they have a lot of statistics and
evidence for why the peak is just around the corner. It makes for a
pretty impressive sounding case. But they don't have a good answer IMO
for why all these facts and figures are unconvincing to people who are
in the business and people who are investing money based on expectations
of future prices. If these facts were really as convincing as Peak
Oilers claim them to be, the markets wouldn't be behaving as they are.
Insiders and market experts would be convinced, just as the Peak Oil
enthusiasts have been, and we would see the kinds of high prices that
Matt Simmons bet on.
The fact that we don't see this behavior means that insiders don't believe
in Peak Oil. To me, that is the strongest argument against that scenario.
Hal Finney
From robgobblin at aol.com Thu Sep 1 23:20:45 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 13:20:45 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050901222119.A1DC057EF5@finney.org>
References: <20050901222119.A1DC057EF5@finney.org>
Message-ID: <43178CCD.7020107@aol.com>
Hal Finney wrote:
>Sure, in fact that is one of the strongest arguments against Peak Oil.
>Who are the insiders who would know if we were about to peak in oil
>production? Well, how about the oil companies? They should have plenty
>of inside information.
>
>
Speaking of which, wouldn't that be a good reason to start a more
aggressive set of policies in the middle east and Venezuela?
Wouldn't that simultaneously be a good impetus for building ethanol
plants domestically?
Both of which are happening in abundance.
>What would you do if you owned an oil well and knew that the world was
>about to hit a supply/demand crunch in oil? Wouldn't that imply that
>oil prices are likely to shoot up incredibly high?
>
Aren't they?
>If insiders knew that these prices were unrealistic, they could take
>positions in the futures market and make enormous profits in a few years.
>But by their actions they would drive up the prices of the futures
>contracts, and we don't see that.
>
>
Gamblers take both sides, they're smarter than you think.
>
>The fact that we don't see this behavior means that insiders don't believe
>in Peak Oil. To me, that is the strongest argument against that scenario.
>
>
It is -just common sense-. Oil is not renewing itself, there are no new
supplies. The supply -will- dwindle. When is an open question. It
shouldn't be regarded as suprising that our "easily accessible" wells
are finite in size, should it?
Robbie Lindauer
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 23:22:13 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 16:22:13 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050901232214.96715.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Dirk Bruere wrote:
> On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
> >
> > The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a
> Hummer,
> > or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with 150 kW
> > beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design
> useful
> > on the battlefield
> >
>
> Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar
> rounds etc in carbon fibre mat.
> I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped dead
> by it. Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
I'm sure, though I'm not too sure that the mat doesn't abrade the bore
of the mortar. Even so, if it gives off that much heat, radiating the
laser energy, it should be easily targetable by a perimter defense
phalanx gun with a FLIR seeker.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Thu Sep 1 23:26:23 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 16:26:23 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050901232623.73761.qmail@web30706.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- BillK wrote:
> Twice in eight months, Nature has given Man a brutal lesson about the
> cost of disrespect. Last December 26, beachfront resorts in Thailand
> were swept away by a tsunami that could have been tamed if developers
> had not destroyed coral reefs and ripped up mangroves, a natural
> bulwark against killer waves.
>
> On August 29, Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans, a city built
> below sealevel, sustained by a complex system of dams and whose
> buffer
> against storm surges, the wetlands of the Mississippi Delta, had been
> eroded by reckless development.
>
>
> ---------------------------------
>
> Rather than blame everything (even bad weather!) on those evil left
> wing pinko communists, it looks to me as though rampant free market
> developers are far more to blame. Making as much money as they can
> while destroying 'the commons'.
NO didn't get flooded from the delta side, they were flooded from Lake
Ponchartrain, which has an open outlet to the sea through which the
storm surge came. It was environmentalist opposition to building a
conventional hurricane barrier, like Dutch engineers have advised for
years, that was the cause. Claims about wetlands protecting NO are only
true in that the storm surge did not come from the delta side of town,
it came from lakeside, upon which NO has always been on the shoreline of.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Thu Sep 1 23:50:04 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 00:50:04 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050901232214.96715.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050901232214.96715.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
>
> > On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
> > >
> > > The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a
> > Hummer,
> > > or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with 150 kW
> > > beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design
> > useful
> > > on the battlefield
> > >
> >
> > Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar
> > rounds etc in carbon fibre mat.
> > I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped dead
> > by it. Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
>
> I'm sure, though I'm not too sure that the mat doesn't abrade the bore
> of the mortar. Even so, if it gives off that much heat, radiating the
> laser energy, it should be easily targetable by a perimter defense
> phalanx gun with a FLIR seeker.
>
Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a HEL to
illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
IIRC the US and Israel were talking of deploying a similar system to hit
katyusha rockets fired at settlements. haven't heard much since about it
though.
Problem is that hardening munitions against laser energy is relatively easy.
Maybe all hamas/Hezbollah would have to do is either polish the rockets or
coat them in sawdust/glue. There is not an infinitely long time window in
which to down these things.
I suspect that the reason it's being deployed on aircraft is to zap MANPADS
like Stinger that rely on delicate sensors so more low level flying can be
undertaken in places like Afghanistan.
Dirk
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 00:27:26 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 17:27:26 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050902002726.99228.qmail@web60524.mail.yahoo.com>
--- Amara Graps wrote:
> Here's a bit of 'trivia' that someone pointed me to
> today,
> a video, from January, from the PBS program "Nova":
>
> http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3204/02.html
>
> The video fairly accurately predicted what was going
> to happen.
> I wonder why the New Orleans area wasn't better
> prepared, given
> that these dangers were so well-known.
Because when the solutions to dangerous problems are
difficult to implement, we are reluctant to solve them
and instead, we simply live in denial of the danger.
"hmmm. . . is that smoke coming from Vesuvius? Well I
don't have time to worry about that now, I must get my
sapho to market." - Castigus of Pompei.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From sjatkins at mac.com Fri Sep 2 00:38:11 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 17:38:11 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To: <20050901205303.GB2249@leitl.org>
References:
<20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
<20050901205303.GB2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID:
On Sep 1, 2005, at 1:53 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 01:03:11PM -0700, Samantha Atkins wrote:
>
>
>> This is surely not the point. There are many severe weaknesses in
>> the US economic situation. I would give an 80% probability of an
>>
>
> I don't know what's going to happen, but if anything Big Bad happens
> it won't be because of a mere hurricane wreck. It would be but a
> trigger.
I have a pretty good idea of what is likely but of course I can't say
how far the repercussions of this particular event will extend. At
the least I suspect it will wake people up to several vulnerabilities
that have been largely ignored for too long.
>
> I'm really recommending Jared Diamond's "Collapse". It's very pop
> science, and
> there are purportedly much better books, but this doesn't mean it
> doesn't
> contain applicable meta level diagnostics and algorithms.
>
I read through most of this. It is a good book but I was
disappointed by the ending. His models seem to traditional and
static to apply without considerable rework in these accelerating
times. I didn't see a lot of room to account for truly disruptive
technologies.
>
>> economic downturn worse than 1987 in the next year. I would give 90%
>> odds of an economic downturn of more than Great Depression magnitude
>> before 2010. This level of economic event can cause very major
>> disruption of all of our plans, dreams and hopes and ruin millions of
>>
>
> I much agree that We're Having Problems, which at best are delaying
> things
> considerably already. What do we do about it, though? We here, on
> this list? I can't see anything useful beyond personal scope plans.
Yeah. Personal scope plans and what can be done to keep our dreams
alive and moving forward even in the face of major crap hitting the
fan would be good to discuss. In between the sky is falling and
forced optimism even unto denial is planning to the degree we can for
various possible scenarios. Another very important thing is how we
personally keep our spirits up and our dreams alive and working
toward realization regardless of what comes or seems likely to come.
> Being part of a solution catalyst would mean succeeding beyond the
> wildest
> dreams.
>
Hey, I think there are some pretty wild dreams around here! But
yeah, it seems it would take something the size of MNT or perhaps
successful capture and mining of an asteroid or two to turn some of
this around.
- samantha
From abeck at berklee.net Fri Sep 2 01:15:37 2005
From: abeck at berklee.net (Andrew Beck)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 21:15:37 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
Message-ID: <2583795.1125623737536.JavaMail.root@ccprodapp12>
>If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that much
>in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
>selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It would
>be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum necessary to
>cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far more
>valuable than it is today.
The thing about the peak oil debate is that it doesn't take the oil to be nearly gone for it to shoot through the roof in price, just a small decline in oil supply will make the price go way up because of people's complete reliance on oil and refusal to comprimise their easy living. Case in point in the 70s when the supply dropped 5% prices shot up 400%. So all that will make the price of oil shoot up is when the supply slows down a bit. The reserves should still be at least halfway full at that point, so now quanitity is good and won't comprimise the oil companies reserves when the supply is running out.
Also I don't think anybody except oil execuatives are in a position to say if they are storing a few wells for a rainy day.
From robgobblin at aol.com Fri Sep 2 01:22:50 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 15:22:50 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
game theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <2583795.1125623737536.JavaMail.root@ccprodapp12>
References: <2583795.1125623737536.JavaMail.root@ccprodapp12>
Message-ID: <4317A96A.6070800@aol.com>
A green point here:
If everyone had their own ethanol still it wouldn't be half the problem
it is now - and there wouldn't be the polution problem either.
Robbie
Andrew Beck wrote:
>>If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that much
>>in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
>>selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It would
>>be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum necessary to
>>cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far more
>>valuable than it is today.
>>
>>
>
>The thing about the peak oil debate is that it doesn't take the oil to be nearly gone for it to shoot through the roof in price, just a small decline in oil supply will make the price go way up because of people's complete reliance on oil and refusal to comprimise their easy living. Case in point in the 70s when the supply dropped 5% prices shot up 400%. So all that will make the price of oil shoot up is when the supply slows down a bit. The reserves should still be at least halfway full at that point, so now quanitity is good and won't comprimise the oil companies reserves when the supply is running out.
>
>Also I don't think anybody except oil execuatives are in a position to say if they are storing a few wells for a rainy day.
>_______________________________________________
>extropy-chat mailing list
>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
>
>
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 01:30:55 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 20:30:55 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
Message-ID: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Is it my imagination or is someone bumbling this entire rescue effort in New Orleans? I cannot believe for a second that FEMA just found out this morning that thousands of people were at the convention center and 8 hours later the best they could do was a single Blackhawk helicopter with bottled water. This is 4 days after this event. I am certain there are supplies all around that area just waiting to get to people. Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton Rouge dropping water and MREs? Where is the command and control center?
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From fauxever at sprynet.com Fri Sep 2 01:40:43 2005
From: fauxever at sprynet.com (Olga Bourlin)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 18:40:43 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <002201c5af5f$558c7730$6600a8c0@brainiac>
From: kevinfreels.com
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:30 PM
> Is it my imagination or is someone bumbling this entire rescue effort in New Orleans?
Yes, bumbling. I was thinking the same thing a couple of days ago, and things have only gotten worse:
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/12537476.htm
New Orleans in Anarchy With Fights, Rapes
By ALLEN G. BREED, Associated Press Writer
40 minutes ago
NEW ORLEANS - New Orleans descended into anarchy Thursday, as corpses lay abandoned in street medians, fights and fires broke out and storm survivors battled for seats on the buses that would carry them away from the chaos. The tired and hungry seethed, saying they had been forsaken. "This is a desperate SOS," mayor Ray Nagin said.
"We are out here like pure animals," the Rev. Issac Clark said outside the New Orleans Convention Center, where he and other evacuees had been waiting for buses for days amid the filth and the dead.
"I'm not sure I'm going to get out of here alive," said tourist Larry Mitzel of Saskatoon, Canada, who handed a reporter his business card in case he goes missing. "I'm scared of riots. I'm scared of the locals. We might get caught in the crossfire."
Four days after Hurricane Katrina roared in with a devastating blow that inflicted potentially thousands of deaths, the frustration, fear and anger mounted, despite the promise of 1,400 National Guardsmen a day to stop the looting, plans for a $10 billion recovery bill in Congress and a government relief effort President Bush called the biggest in U.S. history.
New Orleans' top emergency management official called that effort a "national disgrace" and questioned when reinforcements would actually reach the increasingly lawless city.
About 15,000 to 20,000 people who had taken shelter at New Orleans convention center grew increasingly hostile after waiting for buses for days amid the filth and the dead. Police Chief Eddie Compass said he sent in 88 officers to quell the situation at the building, but they were quickly driven back by an angry mob.
"We have individuals who are getting raped, we have individuals who are getting beaten," Compass said. "Tourists are walking in that direction and they are getting preyed upon."
A military helicopter tried to land at the convention center several times to drop off food and water. But the rushing crowd forced the choppers to back off. Troopers then tossed the supplies to the crowd from 10 feet off the ground and flew away.
In hopes of defusing the situation at the convention center, Mayor Ray Nagin gave the refugees permission to march across a bridge to the city's unflooded west bank for whatever relief they could find. But the bedlam made that difficult.
"This is a desperate SOS," Nagin said in a statement. "Right now we are out of resources at the convention center and don't anticipate enough buses."
At least seven bodies were scattered outside the convention center, a makeshift staging area for those rescued from rooftops, attics and highways. The sidewalks were packed with people without food, water or medical care, and with no sign of law enforcement.
An old man in a chaise lounge lay dead in a grassy median as hungry babies wailed around him. Around the corner, an elderly woman lay dead in her wheelchair, covered up by a blanket, and another body lay beside her wrapped in a sheet.
"I don't treat my dog like that," 47-year-old Daniel Edwards said as he pointed at the woman in the wheelchair.
"You can do everything for other countries, but you can't do nothing for your own people," he added. "You can go overseas with the military, but you can't get them down here."
The street outside the center, above the floodwaters, smelled of urine and feces, and was choked with dirty diapers, old bottles and garbage.
"They've been teasing us with buses for four days," Edwards said. "They're telling us they're going to come get us one day, and then they don't show up."
Every so often, an armored state police vehicle cruised in front of the convention center with four or five officers in riot gear with automatic weapons. But there was no sign of help from the National Guard.
At one point the crowd began to chant "We want help! We want help!" Later, a woman, screaming, went on the front steps of the convention center and led the crowd in reciting the 23rd Psalm, "The Lord is my shepherd ..."
"We are out here like pure animals," the Issac Clark said.
"We've got people dying out here _ two babies have died, a woman died, a man died," said Helen Cheek. "We haven't had no food, we haven't had no water, we haven't had nothing. They just brought us here and dropped us."
Tourist Debbie Durso of Washington, Mich., said she asked a police officer for assistance and his response was, "'Go to hell _ it's every man for himself.'"
"This is just insanity," she said. "We have no food, no water ... all these trucks and buses go by and they do nothing but wave."
At the hot and stinking Superdome, where 30,000 were being evacuated by bus to the Houston Astrodome, fistfights and fires erupted amid a seething sea of tense, suffering people who waited in a lines that stretched a half-mile to board yellow school buses.
After a traffic jam kept buses from arriving for nearly four hours, a near-riot broke out in the scramble to get on the buses that finally did show up, with a group of refugees breaking through a line of heavily armed National Guardsmen.
One military policeman was shot in the leg as he and a man scuffled for the MP's rifle, police Capt. Ernie Demmo said. The man was arrested.
Some of those among the mostly poor crowd had been in the dome for four days without air conditioning, working toilets or a place to bathe. An ambulance service airlifting the sick and injured out of the Superdome suspended flights as too dangerous after it was reported that a bullet was fired at a military helicopter.
"If they're just taking us anywhere, just anywhere, I say praise God," said refugee John Phillip. "Nothing could be worse than what we've been through."
By Thursday evening, 11 hours after the military began evacuating the Superdome, the arena held 10,000 more people than it did at dawn. National Guard Capt. John Pollard said evacuees from around the city poured into the Superdome and swelled the crowd to about 30,000 because they believed the arena was the best place to get a ride out of town.
As he watched a line snaking for blocks through ankle-deep waters, New Orleans' emergency operations chief Terry Ebbert blamed the inadequate response on the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
"This is not a FEMA operation. I haven't seen a single FEMA guy," he said. He added: "We can send massive amounts of aid to tsunami victims, but we can't bail out the city of New Orleans."
FEMA officials said some operations had to be suspended in areas where gunfire has broken out.
A day after Nagin took 1,500 police officers off search-and-rescue duty to try to restore order in the streets, there were continued reports of looting, shootings, gunfire and carjackings _ and not all the crimes were driven by greed.
When some hospitals try to airlift patients, Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Cheri Ben-Iesan said, "there are people just taking potshots at police and at helicopters, telling them, `You better come get my family.'"
Outside a looted Rite-Aid drugstore, some people were anxious to show they needed what they were taking. A gray-haired man who would not give his name pulled up his T-shirt to show a surgery scar and explained that he needs pads for incontinence.
"I'm a Christian. I feel bad going in there," he said.
Earl Baker carried toothpaste, toothbrushes and deodorant. "Look, I'm only getting necessities," he said. "All of this is personal hygiene. I ain't getting nothing to get drunk or high with."
While floodwaters in the city appeared to stabilize, efforts continued to plug three breaches that had opened up in the levee system that protects this below-sea-level city.
Helicopters dropped sandbags into the breach and pilings were being pounded into the mouth of the canal Thursday to close its connection to Lake Pontchartrain, state Transportation Secretary Johnny Bradberry said. He said contractors had completed building a rock road to let heavy equipment roll to the area by midnight.
The next step called for using about 250 concrete road barriers to seal the gap.
In Washington, the White House said Bush will tour the devastated Gulf Coast region on Friday and has asked his father, former President George H.W. Bush, and former President Clinton to lead a private fund-raising campaign for victims.
The president urged a crackdown on the lawlessness.
"I think there ought to be zero tolerance of people breaking the law during an emergency such as this _ whether it be looting, or price gouging at the gasoline pump, or taking advantage of charitable giving or insurance fraud," Bush said. "And I've made that clear to our attorney general. The citizens ought to be working together."
Donald Dudley, a 55-year-old New Orleans seafood merchant, complained that when he and other hungry refugees broke into the kitchen of the convention center and tried to prepare food, the National Guard chased them away.
"They pulled guns and told us we had to leave that kitchen or they would blow our damn brains out," he said. "We don't want their help. Give us some vehicles and we'll get ourselves out of here!"
____
Associated Press reporters Adam Nossiter, Brett Martel, Robert Tanner and Mary Foster contributed to this report.
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From fauxever at sprynet.com Fri Sep 2 01:46:57 2005
From: fauxever at sprynet.com (Olga Bourlin)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 18:46:57 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
From: kevinfreels.com
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:30 PM
> Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton Rouge dropping water and MREs? Where is the command and control center?
Iraq has taken a lot of our resources, hasn't it?
Iraq even thinned the ranks of our National Guard ... they are supposed to be here - not in Iraq - in case of national emergencies.
I have a first cousin (with a husband and son) who has been living in Metarie - just outside of New Orleans - for over a decade. I sent her an email - hoping she will be an an internet cafe somewhere sometime - and haven't heard back from her yet.
Olga
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From dgc at cox.net Fri Sep 2 01:53:32 2005
From: dgc at cox.net (Dan Clemmensen)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 21:53:32 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
kevinfreels.com wrote:
>
> Is it my imagination or is someone bumbling this entire rescue effort
> in New Orleans? I cannot believe for a second that FEMA just found out
> this morning that thousands of people were at the convention center
> and 8 hours later the best they could do was a single Blackhawk
> helicopter with bottled water. This is 4 days after this event. I am
> certain there are supplies all around that area just waiting to get to
> people. Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton Rouge dropping
> water and MREs? Where is the command and control center?
Indeed.
This disaster is very different from the tsunami in the Indian Ocean.
The Tsunami was an unpredicted event of very low probability in an area
with a sparse logistical base. Pre-planning for such events must be
generalized and non-specific.
By contrast, a hurricane-induced break in New Orleans' levees was
predictable, predicted, and evaluated as the most likely major disaster
in the US.
Humans need a gallon of drinking water a day, plus some washing water.
Just how hard is it to commandeer all the water trucks in the towns
along the Lower Mississippi river, place hen in barges, and send the to
New Orleans? In my (rich) neighborhood, there are several companies that
have such trucks. Each truck has a 7000-gallon tank. the trucks are used
to fill swimming pools. 20 trucks a day will support 140,000 people. A
single tow-boat per day can trivially handle enough barges to carry the
food and water for 100,000 people.
What astounded me was the inattention the press gave to the levees. The
press did their hurricane thing, looking at the "standard" hurricane
damage in Biloxi and Gulfport,and they thought New Orleans was the same.
The canal levee was breached on Monday afternoon,and the press ignored
it until noon on Tuesday. The breach was the most important part of the
story, and anyone with the sense god gave a grasshopper should have
known it (with <10 minutes of research) at the time Katrina first turned
north in the gulf. I sure did. If I knew it, the governor of Louisiana
should have known it. When the Mayor (correctly and courageously)
ordered the evacuation and estimated that 100,000 would be left behind,
the governor should have commandeered the water trucks and ordered them
filled. Of course, someone should also have recommended that everyone
remaining in New Orleans fill their bathtubs with double layered
30-gallon garbage bags full of water, and everyone should have placed
all dry food into double garbage bags, but that's too simple. I guess.
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 02:28:10 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:28:10 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Dirk Bruere wrote:
> On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> >
> > --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
> >
> > > On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> >
>
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
> > > >
> > > > The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a
> > > Hummer,
> > > > or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with
> 150 kW
> > > > beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design
> > > useful
> > > > on the battlefield
> > > >
> > >
> > > Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar
> > > rounds etc in carbon fibre mat.
> > > I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped
> dead
> > > by it. Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
> >
> > I'm sure, though I'm not too sure that the mat doesn't abrade the
> bore
> > of the mortar. Even so, if it gives off that much heat, radiating
> the
> > laser energy, it should be easily targetable by a perimter defense
> > phalanx gun with a FLIR seeker.
> >
>
> Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a
> HEL to illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
Hardly. A radar itself can be homed in on with an anti-radiation
missile or other weapon. A FLIR is passive, and thus a better sensor,
just as passive sonar is more secure than active sonar.
> IIRC the US and Israel were talking of deploying a similar system to
> hit katyusha rockets fired at settlements. haven't heard much since
> about it though.
> Problem is that hardening munitions against laser energy is
> relatively easy.
> Maybe all hamas/Hezbollah would have to do is either polish the
> rockets or
> coat them in sawdust/glue. There is not an infinitely long time
> window in which to down these things.
>
> I suspect that the reason it's being deployed on aircraft is to zap
> MANPADS
> like Stinger that rely on delicate sensors so more low level flying
> can be undertaken in places like Afghanistan.
Actually, the THEL has been tested against katyushas. And despite the
claims of the disparagers, polishing or sawdust and glue doesn't do
anything to protect against a high energy laser. Its all well and good
to talk about it, but proving it is another thing.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________
Yahoo! Mail
Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
From sjatkins at mac.com Fri Sep 2 02:32:34 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:32:34 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin> <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
Message-ID: <93F82E16-27B2-4DFC-86F3-57977FD1ACCC@mac.com>
What would be needed to purify some of the water the people have all
too much of for drinking purposes?
What were all those scary powers given to FEMA for if they
accomplish so very little in an actual emergency?
Who wouldn't loot at least food stores after days of exposure,
hunger, thirst and appalling very dangerous conditions? How is it
more important to deal really harshly with looters than to end these
deplorable conditions giving rise to these behaviors as quickly as
possible? I don't understand this. In case of real emergency or
disaster I now feel much less safe.
- samantha
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 02:37:09 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:37:09 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <4317A96A.6070800@aol.com>
Message-ID: <20050902023709.43132.qmail@web30707.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
On the contrary, and contrary to the Green agrarian mythology, putting
the burden on the agricultural system means much more farmland put
under plow, and much more forest re-re-claimed for farmland, means
ecological devastation. It is farmland that destroys wildlife habitat.
VT and NH were once 90% farmland for only two things: a) to grow hay
for all the horses in New York City and Boston, and b) to grow sheep
for wool for keeping NYers and Beantowners warm in those cold cold
winters of the late 19th century when we were headed into an ice age.
Today it is reversed: VT and NH are 90% forest, we have more wildlife
than before the europeans came here, and NY and Boston are not hip deep
in horseshit, disease, and stink.
Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century economy
and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
knows not what they ask for.
Besides all that, all the distillery mash will release much more
methane into the atmosphere. Scientists had thought methane was six
times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. A report just came out
that its actually 12 times more powerful.
--- Robert Lindauer wrote:
> A green point here:
>
> If everyone had their own ethanol still it wouldn't be half the
> problem
> it is now - and there wouldn't be the polution problem either.
>
> Robbie
>
>
> Andrew Beck wrote:
>
> >>If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that
> much
> >>in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
> >>selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It
> would
> >>be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum necessary
> to
> >>cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far
> more
> >>valuable than it is today.
> >>
> >>
> >
> >The thing about the peak oil debate is that it doesn't take the oil
> to be nearly gone for it to shoot through the roof in price, just a
> small decline in oil supply will make the price go way up because of
> people's complete reliance on oil and refusal to comprimise their
> easy living. Case in point in the 70s when the supply dropped 5%
> prices shot up 400%. So all that will make the price of oil shoot up
> is when the supply slows down a bit. The reserves should still be at
> least halfway full at that point, so now quanitity is good and won't
> comprimise the oil companies reserves when the supply is running out.
> >
> >Also I don't think anybody except oil execuatives are in a position
> to say if they are storing a few wells for a rainy day.
> >_______________________________________________
> >extropy-chat mailing list
> >extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> >http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >
> >
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________
Yahoo! Mail
Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 02:37:36 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 03:37:36 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
>
>
> --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
>
> > On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > >
> > > --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
> > >
> > > > On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > >
> >
> http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
> > > > >
> > > > > The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a
> > > > Hummer,
> > > > > or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with
> > 150 kW
> > > > > beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design
> > > > useful
> > > > > on the battlefield
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar
> > > > rounds etc in carbon fibre mat.
> > > > I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped
> > dead
> > > > by it. Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
> > >
> > > I'm sure, though I'm not too sure that the mat doesn't abrade the
> > bore
> > > of the mortar. Even so, if it gives off that much heat, radiating
> > the
> > > laser energy, it should be easily targetable by a perimter defense
> > > phalanx gun with a FLIR seeker.
> > >
> >
> > Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a
> > HEL to illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
>
> Hardly. A radar itself can be homed in on with an anti-radiation
> missile or other weapon. A FLIR is passive, and thus a better sensor,
> just as passive sonar is more secure than active sonar.
>
> > IIRC the US and Israel were talking of deploying a similar system to
> > hit katyusha rockets fired at settlements. haven't heard much since
> > about it though.
> > Problem is that hardening munitions against laser energy is
> > relatively easy.
> > Maybe all hamas/Hezbollah would have to do is either polish the
> > rockets or
> > coat them in sawdust/glue. There is not an infinitely long time
> > window in which to down these things.
> >
> > I suspect that the reason it's being deployed on aircraft is to zap
> > MANPADS
> > like Stinger that rely on delicate sensors so more low level flying
> > can be undertaken in places like Afghanistan.
>
> Actually, the THEL has been tested against katyushas. And despite the
> claims of the disparagers, polishing or sawdust and glue doesn't do
> anything to protect against a high energy laser. Its all well and good
> to talk about it, but proving it is another thing.
>
>
The people making it, buying it and paying for it are the last ones to want
to develop a $1 countermeasure.
I'll leave that to Hezbollah after its deployed.
If they can't come up with somthing I'll accept you are correct.
Dirk
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From sjatkins at mac.com Fri Sep 2 02:39:33 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:39:33 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] re: news in perspective
In-Reply-To: <20050901205303.GB2249@leitl.org>
References:
<20050901165852.GW2249@leitl.org>
<20050901205303.GB2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID:
On Sep 1, 2005, at 1:53 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 01:03:11PM -0700, Samantha Atkins wrote:
>
>
>> This is surely not the point. There are many severe weaknesses in
>> the US economic situation. I would give an 80% probability of an
>>
>
> I don't know what's going to happen, but if anything Big Bad happens
> it won't be because of a mere hurricane wreck. It would be but a
> trigger.
Charlie Stross has some interesting thoughts about how bad this could
be on one of his blogs. It is potentially a bit more than a trigger.
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2005/08/31/#katrina-1
Wed, 31 Aug 2005
Katrina aftermath
I've avoided posting about the inundation of New Orleans, or
Hurricane Katrina, until now -- I'm on the wrong side of the Atlantic
and it wasn't obviously any business of mine (other than the odd
anxious "are you alright?" email to friends and acquaintances who
live a whole lot closer).
However: the devastation is now clearly so extensive that I expect it
to have very personal consequences indeed.
Leaving aside any political partisan finger-pointing, it's worth
noting that it's not just New Orleans that's underwater. As Stratfor
pointed out in a recent bulletin, New Orleans is just one of the
residential hubs of the Port of Southern Louisiana, the huge terminal
complex that covers the bottom-most fifty miles of the Mississippi.
"The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the
world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States.
The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and
Hong Kong. ... The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down
the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of
New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port
for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans,
wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend
on those exports. The United States imports crude oil,
petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen
percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half
of the exports go to Europe."
The actual estimates for insured structural damage caused by
Hurricane Katrina are currently around US $25-30Bn. The current loss
of life estimates are in the hundreds (although I'd be unsurprised if
the eventual death toll does not eventually top 9/11 by quite a
margin). But the economic damage from closing the Port of Southern
Louisiana for up to three months is huge -- plausibly equal to 5% of
the US balance of trade with the rest of the world. I can't put a
figure on that total, but I'd be surprised if it isn't an order of
magnitude more than the $25-30Bn insurance costs, and possibly even
higher than the cost to date of the Iraq war and occupation ($200Bn).
A couple of hundred billion here, a couple of hundred billion there
-- pretty soon we're talking real money.
What are the likely consequences (locally and globally) of blowing a
5% of GDP sized hole under the waterline of the US economy?
(PS: for anyone who suspects this question is prompted by nascent
anti-Americanism, rest assured: the real reason is that I earn about
70% of my income in dollars. If the US economy sneezes, I catch a
cold ...)
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 02:49:55 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:49:55 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID: <20050902024955.65091.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Olga Bourlin wrote:
> From: kevinfreels.com
> Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:30 PM
>
> > Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton Rouge dropping water and
> MREs? Where is the command and control center?
>
> Iraq has taken a lot of our resources, hasn't it?
>
> Iraq even thinned the ranks of our National Guard ... they are
> supposed to be here - not in Iraq - in case of national emergencies.
Apparently not. We just raised a million bucks up here in NH for the
effort today, and have offered 1100 NG troops, the feds have accepted
less than 500 so far, they'll be flying down this weekend.
>From what I'm reading, there are a lot of welfare mentalities sitting
around waiting for the government to do do do for them. If people
living below sea level on the coast in a hurricane zone do not have
supplies to deal with such emergencies, they shouldn't be pointing
fingers at anyone but themselves.
The mayor and governor told the residents of NO to evacuate. Those that
stayed around, from the tv video, seem to have done so for the looting
opportunities, or live where they are worried about being looted while
gone because they know their neighborhood.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From spike66 at comcast.net Fri Sep 2 02:57:12 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:57:12 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <93F82E16-27B2-4DFC-86F3-57977FD1ACCC@mac.com>
Message-ID: <200509020259.j822x7w03358@tick.javien.com>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Samantha Atkins
> Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 7:33 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
>
> What would be needed to purify some of the water the people have all
> too much of for drinking purposes?
Distilling urine is harder than a lot of good
alternatives. Hand operated reverse osmosis pumps
that backpackers use will get drinking water out of
muddy flood water. I have half a mind to send my
RO pumps down to New Orleans, if I knew where to
send them. The water in the tank (but not the bowl)
of a toilet is considered potable without treatment. I
don't see why not, it seems clean enough back
there. If you don't have a RO water pump, that
might be a good thing to have in your emergency
supplies closet.
spike
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 03:06:54 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 22:06:54 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <20050902024955.65091.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <003f01c5af6b$5fe21260$0100a8c0@kevin>
Yeah Mike, tell that to a couple of 90 yr old women I know down there that
couldn't leave because they had little extra money and no place to go. Once
the levees broker - which was after the storm, there was very little time to
get out and no way to notify them about it.
Their area is out of the normal "looting" type neighborhood you described
but as the bowl filled up, those people moved outwards into other
neighborhoods.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Lorrey"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 9:49 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
>
>
> --- Olga Bourlin wrote:
>
> > From: kevinfreels.com
> > Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:30 PM
> >
> > > Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton Rouge dropping water and
> > MREs? Where is the command and control center?
> >
> > Iraq has taken a lot of our resources, hasn't it?
> >
> > Iraq even thinned the ranks of our National Guard ... they are
> > supposed to be here - not in Iraq - in case of national emergencies.
>
> Apparently not. We just raised a million bucks up here in NH for the
> effort today, and have offered 1100 NG troops, the feds have accepted
> less than 500 so far, they'll be flying down this weekend.
>
> >From what I'm reading, there are a lot of welfare mentalities sitting
> around waiting for the government to do do do for them. If people
> living below sea level on the coast in a hurricane zone do not have
> supplies to deal with such emergencies, they shouldn't be pointing
> fingers at anyone but themselves.
>
> The mayor and governor told the residents of NO to evacuate. Those that
> stayed around, from the tv video, seem to have done so for the looting
> opportunities, or live where they are worried about being looted while
> gone because they know their neighborhood.
>
> Mike Lorrey
> Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
> http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
> Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 03:09:24 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 22:09:24 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin> <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
<93F82E16-27B2-4DFC-86F3-57977FD1ACCC@mac.com>
Message-ID: <004c01c5af6b$b92ca740$0100a8c0@kevin>
Exactly. Of course, you have to deal with certain looters -0 especially if
what they are looting are gun stores.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Samantha Atkins"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 9:32 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
> What would be needed to purify some of the water the people have all
> too much of for drinking purposes?
>
> What were all those scary powers given to FEMA for if they
> accomplish so very little in an actual emergency?
>
> Who wouldn't loot at least food stores after days of exposure,
> hunger, thirst and appalling very dangerous conditions? How is it
> more important to deal really harshly with looters than to end these
> deplorable conditions giving rise to these behaviors as quickly as
> possible? I don't understand this. In case of real emergency or
> disaster I now feel much less safe.
>
> - samantha
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From user at dhp.com Fri Sep 2 03:03:18 2005
From: user at dhp.com (user)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:03:18 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050902023709.43132.qmail@web30707.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century economy
> and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
> knows not what they ask for.
Also, calculations and economics aside, burning dead plants for fuel
(whether recently dead corn or ancient dead dinosaurs) is a low tech way
of running our world that we should be ashamed of.
If we are going to make any shift at all, I would like it to be a
qualitative shift to a modern technology, and not just a shuffling around
of means to find different ways to set dead plants on fire.
From robgobblin at aol.com Fri Sep 2 03:04:07 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 17:04:07 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
game theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050902023709.43132.qmail@web30707.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050902023709.43132.qmail@web30707.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <4317C127.3030707@aol.com>
Interesting, my chemistry book says:
C6Hl2O6 ? 2 CH3CH2OH + 2 CO2 + energy
glucose ethyl alcohol carbon dioxide
As for fallow land, in 1980, around 170,000 acres in Hawaii were
dedicated to sugar production, now down to 20k acres, with 150k acres
laying, for the most part, fallow.
Here it's good sense.
In the midwest where they continue to produce corn in abundance,
corn-produced alcohol averages about $2.12 per gallon buying corn at
market rates, not even touching the abundant supply.
Robbie
Mike Lorrey wrote:
>On the contrary, and contrary to the Green agrarian mythology, putting
>the burden on the agricultural system means much more farmland put
>under plow, and much more forest re-re-claimed for farmland, means
>ecological devastation. It is farmland that destroys wildlife habitat.
>VT and NH were once 90% farmland for only two things: a) to grow hay
>for all the horses in New York City and Boston, and b) to grow sheep
>for wool for keeping NYers and Beantowners warm in those cold cold
>winters of the late 19th century when we were headed into an ice age.
>
>Today it is reversed: VT and NH are 90% forest, we have more wildlife
>than before the europeans came here, and NY and Boston are not hip deep
>in horseshit, disease, and stink.
>
>Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century economy
>and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
>knows not what they ask for.
>
>Besides all that, all the distillery mash will release much more
>methane into the atmosphere. Scientists had thought methane was six
>times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. A report just came out
>that its actually 12 times more powerful.
>
>--- Robert Lindauer wrote:
>
>
>
>>A green point here:
>>
>>If everyone had their own ethanol still it wouldn't be half the
>>problem
>>it is now - and there wouldn't be the polution problem either.
>>
>>Robbie
>>
>>
>>Andrew Beck wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>>>If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that
>>>>
>>>>
>>much
>>
>>
>>>>in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
>>>>selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It
>>>>
>>>>
>>would
>>
>>
>>>>be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum necessary
>>>>
>>>>
>>to
>>
>>
>>>>cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far
>>>>
>>>>
>>more
>>
>>
>>>>valuable than it is today.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>The thing about the peak oil debate is that it doesn't take the oil
>>>
>>>
>>to be nearly gone for it to shoot through the roof in price, just a
>>small decline in oil supply will make the price go way up because of
>>people's complete reliance on oil and refusal to comprimise their
>>easy living. Case in point in the 70s when the supply dropped 5%
>>prices shot up 400%. So all that will make the price of oil shoot up
>>is when the supply slows down a bit. The reserves should still be at
>>least halfway full at that point, so now quanitity is good and won't
>>comprimise the oil companies reserves when the supply is running out.
>>
>>
>>>Also I don't think anybody except oil execuatives are in a position
>>>
>>>
>>to say if they are storing a few wells for a rainy day.
>>
>>
>>>_______________________________________________
>>>extropy-chat mailing list
>>>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>_______________________________________________
>>extropy-chat mailing list
>>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>Mike Lorrey
>Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
>Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
>http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
>Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
>
>
>
>__________________________________
>Yahoo! Mail
>Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
>http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
>
>_______________________________________________
>extropy-chat mailing list
>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
>
>
From neptune at superlink.net Fri Sep 2 03:18:00 2005
From: neptune at superlink.net (Technotranscendence)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:18:00 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Game Theory Applied to Nuclear Proliferation
Message-ID: <005501c5af6c$ed5f4620$f2893cd1@pavilion>
"Is the nuclear proliferation a blessing?"
"Yes it is. Why? Because things that are good for us are good for
others. Terror equilibrium has been guarantor of peace in Europe during
the Cold War. Without it Soviets could have a temptation to invade
Europe. When there are no nuclear weapons there are classic wars, which
can result in massacres comparable to the First World War. Iran/Iraq war
was compared to the war between France and Germany. If both sides had
nuclear weapons they would hesitate to enter the conflict, which would
have saved millions of lives. Possession of nuclear weapons is a good
and not a bad. Its dissemination is good and not bad. Indeed, the more
countries possess such dissuasive weapon, the wider will be the
territory of peace and stability, which we experienced in Europe
throughout the Cold War. There have to be serious arguments used in
order to prohibit certain country to use such means of dissuading
potential aggressors."
from http://lemennicier.bwm-mediasoft.com/col_docs/doc_55_fr.pdf
Regards,
Dan
From mbb386 at main.nc.us Fri Sep 2 03:20:54 2005
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:20:54 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
<001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID:
On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Olga Bourlin wrote:
>
> I have a first cousin (with a husband and son) who has been living in Metarie - just outside of New Orleans - for over a decade. I sent her an email - hoping she will be an an internet cafe somewhere sometime - and haven't heard back from her yet.
>
I have a childhood friend in Metarie and have received no response to
my email. Guess she's without power. :( Hope she's ok.
Regards,
MB
From fauxever at sprynet.com Fri Sep 2 03:29:53 2005
From: fauxever at sprynet.com (Olga Bourlin)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 20:29:53 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin> <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
Message-ID: <004f01c5af6e$958b60d0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
From: "Dan Clemmensen"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:53 PM
>
> What astounded me was the inattention the press gave to the levees. The
> press did their hurricane thing, looking at the "standard" hurricane
> damage in Biloxi and Gulfport,and they thought New Orleans was the same.
This is another interesting perspective on some possible inattention due to
...?:
press box
Lost in the Flood
Why no mention of race or class in TV's Katrina coverage?
By Jack Shafer
Posted Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2005, at 4:22 PM PT
I can't say I saw everything that the TV newscasters pumped out about
Katrina, but I viewed enough repeated segments to say with 90 percent
confidence that broadcasters covering the New Orleans end of the disaster
demurred from mentioning two topics that must have occurred to every
sentient viewer: race and class.
Nearly every rescued person, temporary resident of the Superdome, looter, or
loiterer on the high ground of the freeway I saw on TV was African-American.
And from the look of it, they weren't wealthy residents of the Garden
District. This storm appears to have hurt blacks more directly than whites,
but the broadcasters scarcely mentioned that fact.
Now, don't get me wrong. Just because 67 percent of New Orleans residents
are black, I don't expect CNN to rename the storm "Hurricane" Carter in
honor of the black boxer. Just because Katrina's next stop after destroying
coastal Mississippi was counties that are 25 percent to 86 percent
African-American (according to this U.S. Census map), and 27.9 percent of
New Orleans residents are below the poverty line, I don't expect the Rev.
Jesse Jackson to call the news channels to give a comment. But in the their
frenzy to beat freshness into the endless loops of disaster footage that
have been running all day, broadcasters might have mentioned that nearly all
the visible people left behind in New Orleans are of the black persuasion,
and mostly poor.
To be sure, some reporters sidled up to the race and class issue. I heard
them ask the storm's New Orleans victims why they hadn't left town when the
evacuation call came. Many said they were broke?"I live from paycheck to
paycheck," explained one woman. Others said they didn't own a car with which
to escape and that they hadn't understood the importance of evacuation.
But I don't recall any reporter exploring the class issue directly by
getting a paycheck-to-paycheck victim to explain that he couldn't risk
leaving because if he lost his furniture and appliances, his pots and pans,
his bedding and clothes, to Katrina or looters, he'd have no way to replace
them. No insurance, no stable, large extended family that could lend him
cash to get back on his feet, no middle-class job to return to after the
storm.
What accounts for the broadcasters' timidity? I saw only a couple of black
faces anchoring or co-anchoring but didn't see any black faces reporting
from New Orleans. So, it's safe to assume that the reluctance to talk about
race on the air was a mostly white thing. That would tend to imply that
white people don't enjoy discussing the subject. But they do, as long as
they get to call another white person racist.
My guess is that Caucasian broadcasters refrain from extemporizing about
race on the air mostly because they fear having an Al Campanis moment.
Campanis, you may recall, was the Los Angeles Dodgers vice president who
brought his career to an end when he appeared on Nightline in 1987 and
explained to Ted Koppel that blacks might not have "some of the necessities"
it takes to manage a major league team or run it as a general manager for
the same reason black people aren't "good swimmers." They lack "buoyancy,"
he said.
Not to excuse Campanis, but as racists go he was an underachiever. While
playing in the minor leagues, he threw down his mitt and challenged another
player who was bullying Jackie Robinson. As Dodger GM, he aggressively
signed black and Latino players, treated them well, and earned their
admiration. Although his Nightline statement was transparently racist, in
the furor that followed, nobody could cite another racist remark he had ever
made. His racism, which surely blocked blacks from potential front-office
Dodger careers, was the racism of overwhelming ignorance?a trait he shared
(shares?) with many other baseball executives.
This sort of latent racism (or something more potent) may lurk in the hearts
of many white people who end up on TV, as it does in the hearts of many who
watch. Or, even if they're completely clean of racism's taint, anchors and
reporters fear that they'll suffer a career-stopping Campanis moment by
blurting something poorly thought out or something that gets misconstrued.
Better, most think, to avoid discussing race at all unless someone with
impeccable race credentials appears to supervise?and indemnify?everybody
from potentially damaging charges of racism.
Race remains largely untouchable for TV because broadcasters sense that they
can't make an error without destroying careers. That's a true pity. If the
subject were a little less taboo, one of last night's anchors could have
asked a reporter, "Can you explain to our viewers, who by now have surely
noticed, why 99 percent of the New Orleans evacuees we're seeing are
African-American? I suppose our viewers have noticed, too, that the
provocative looting footage we're airing and re-airing seems to depict
mostly African-Americans."
If the reporter on the ground couldn't answer the questions, a researcher
could have Nexised the New Orleans Times-Picayune five-parter from 2002,
"Washing Away," which reported that the city's 100,000 residents without
private transportation were likely to be stranded by a big storm. In other
words, what's happening is what was expected to happen: The poor didn't get
out in time.
To the question of looting, an informed reporter or anchor might have
pointed out that anybody?even one of the 500 Nordic blondes working in
broadcast news?would loot food from a shuttered shop if they found
themselves trapped by a flood and had no idea when help would come. However
sympathetic I might be to people liberating necessities during a disaster in
order to survive, I can't muster the same tolerance for those caught on
camera helping themselves in a leisurely fashion to dry goods at Wal-Mart.
Those people weren't looting as much as they were shopping for good stuff to
steal. MSNBC's anchor Rita Cosby, who blurted an outraged if inarticulate
harrumph when she aired the Wal-Mart heist footage, deserves more respect
than the broadcasters who gave the tape the sort of nonjudgmental commentary
they might deliver if they were watching the perps vacuum the carpets at
home.
When disaster strikes, Americans?especially journalists?like to pretend that
no matter who gets hit, no matter what race, color, creed, or socioeconomic
level they hail from, we're all in it together. This spirit informs the 1997
disaster flick Volcano, in which a "can't we all just get along" moment
arrives at the film's end: Volcanic ash covers every face in the big crowd
scene, and everybody realizes that we're all members of one united race.
But we aren't one united race, we aren't one united class, and Katrina
didn't hit all folks equally. By failing to acknowledge upfront that black
New Orleanians?and perhaps black Mississippians?suffered more from Katrina
than whites, the TV talkers may escape potential accusations that they're
racist. But by ignoring race and class, they boot the journalistic
opportunity to bring attention to the disenfranchisement of a whole
definable segment of the population. What I wouldn't pay to hear a Fox
anchor ask, "Say, Bob, why are these African-Americans so poor to begin
with?"
sidebar
Return to article
Jack Shafer is Slate's editor at large.
Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2124688/
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From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 04:01:27 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:01:27 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin> <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
<004f01c5af6e$958b60d0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID: <00b901c5af72$fe514a40$0100a8c0@kevin>
This whole article is crap. Indeed, why are so many of them poor? Could it
be the spirit of entitlement in the area? The fact that everyone there
xepects a handout? The fact that everyone expected that if anything
happened, someone would take care of them?
And who would be responsible for this? Me? You? The racist "american
people"? This is crap. Their mayor is black. If anyone is responsible it is
him. These journalists act like this is the result of some huge racial
conspiracy. No doubt someone will say this was planned by white people.
This has nothing to do with race. It is incompetence and ignorance.
I know I started this thread. and I just had a thought. These people have
been sitting there for 4 days and yet camera crews and police cars can drive
by? Why the hell do they just sit there? Sure, there are some who couldn;t
make the walk, but by the looks of the peopole I would guess that most of
those "trapped without food" could just walk out at any time.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Olga Bourlin"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 10:29 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
> From: "Dan Clemmensen"
> Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 6:53 PM
> >
> > What astounded me was the inattention the press gave to the levees. The
> > press did their hurricane thing, looking at the "standard" hurricane
> > damage in Biloxi and Gulfport,and they thought New Orleans was the same.
>
> This is another interesting perspective on some possible inattention due
to
> ..?:.
>
> press box
> Lost in the Flood
> Why no mention of race or class in TV's Katrina coverage?
> By Jack Shafer
> Posted Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2005, at 4:22 PM PT
>
>
>
>
> I can't say I saw everything that the TV newscasters pumped out about
> Katrina, but I viewed enough repeated segments to say with 90 percent
> confidence that broadcasters covering the New Orleans end of the disaster
> demurred from mentioning two topics that must have occurred to every
> sentient viewer: race and class.
>
> Nearly every rescued person, temporary resident of the Superdome, looter,
or
> loiterer on the high ground of the freeway I saw on TV was
African-American.
> And from the look of it, they weren't wealthy residents of the Garden
> District. This storm appears to have hurt blacks more directly than
whites,
> but the broadcasters scarcely mentioned that fact.
>
>
> Now, don't get me wrong. Just because 67 percent of New Orleans residents
> are black, I don't expect CNN to rename the storm "Hurricane" Carter in
> honor of the black boxer. Just because Katrina's next stop after
destroying
> coastal Mississippi was counties that are 25 percent to 86 percent
> African-American (according to this U.S. Census map), and 27.9 percent of
> New Orleans residents are below the poverty line, I don't expect the Rev.
> Jesse Jackson to call the news channels to give a comment. But in the
their
> frenzy to beat freshness into the endless loops of disaster footage that
> have been running all day, broadcasters might have mentioned that nearly
all
> the visible people left behind in New Orleans are of the black persuasion,
> and mostly poor.
>
> To be sure, some reporters sidled up to the race and class issue. I heard
> them ask the storm's New Orleans victims why they hadn't left town when
the
> evacuation call came. Many said they were broke?"I live from paycheck to
> paycheck," explained one woman. Others said they didn't own a car with
which
> to escape and that they hadn't understood the importance of evacuation.
>
> But I don't recall any reporter exploring the class issue directly by
> getting a paycheck-to-paycheck victim to explain that he couldn't risk
> leaving because if he lost his furniture and appliances, his pots and
pans,
> his bedding and clothes, to Katrina or looters, he'd have no way to
replace
> them. No insurance, no stable, large extended family that could lend him
> cash to get back on his feet, no middle-class job to return to after the
> storm.
>
> What accounts for the broadcasters' timidity? I saw only a couple of black
> faces anchoring or co-anchoring but didn't see any black faces reporting
> from New Orleans. So, it's safe to assume that the reluctance to talk
about
> race on the air was a mostly white thing. That would tend to imply that
> white people don't enjoy discussing the subject. But they do, as long as
> they get to call another white person racist.
>
> My guess is that Caucasian broadcasters refrain from extemporizing about
> race on the air mostly because they fear having an Al Campanis moment.
> Campanis, you may recall, was the Los Angeles Dodgers vice president who
> brought his career to an end when he appeared on Nightline in 1987 and
> explained to Ted Koppel that blacks might not have "some of the
necessities"
> it takes to manage a major league team or run it as a general manager for
> the same reason black people aren't "good swimmers." They lack "buoyancy,"
> he said.
>
> Not to excuse Campanis, but as racists go he was an underachiever. While
> playing in the minor leagues, he threw down his mitt and challenged
another
> player who was bullying Jackie Robinson. As Dodger GM, he aggressively
> signed black and Latino players, treated them well, and earned their
> admiration. Although his Nightline statement was transparently racist, in
> the furor that followed, nobody could cite another racist remark he had
ever
> made. His racism, which surely blocked blacks from potential front-office
> Dodger careers, was the racism of overwhelming ignorance?a trait he shared
> (shares?) with many other baseball executives.
>
> This sort of latent racism (or something more potent) may lurk in the
hearts
> of many white people who end up on TV, as it does in the hearts of many
who
> watch. Or, even if they're completely clean of racism's taint, anchors and
> reporters fear that they'll suffer a career-stopping Campanis moment by
> blurting something poorly thought out or something that gets misconstrued.
> Better, most think, to avoid discussing race at all unless someone with
> impeccable race credentials appears to supervise?and indemnify?everybody
> from potentially damaging charges of racism.
>
> Race remains largely untouchable for TV because broadcasters sense that
they
> can't make an error without destroying careers. That's a true pity. If the
> subject were a little less taboo, one of last night's anchors could have
> asked a reporter, "Can you explain to our viewers, who by now have surely
> noticed, why 99 percent of the New Orleans evacuees we're seeing are
> African-American? I suppose our viewers have noticed, too, that the
> provocative looting footage we're airing and re-airing seems to depict
> mostly African-Americans."
>
> If the reporter on the ground couldn't answer the questions, a researcher
> could have Nexised the New Orleans Times-Picayune five-parter from 2002,
> "Washing Away," which reported that the city's 100,000 residents without
> private transportation were likely to be stranded by a big storm. In other
> words, what's happening is what was expected to happen: The poor didn't
get
> out in time.
>
> To the question of looting, an informed reporter or anchor might have
> pointed out that anybody?even one of the 500 Nordic blondes working in
> broadcast news?would loot food from a shuttered shop if they found
> themselves trapped by a flood and had no idea when help would come.
However
> sympathetic I might be to people liberating necessities during a disaster
in
> order to survive, I can't muster the same tolerance for those caught on
> camera helping themselves in a leisurely fashion to dry goods at Wal-Mart.
> Those people weren't looting as much as they were shopping for good stuff
to
> steal. MSNBC's anchor Rita Cosby, who blurted an outraged if inarticulate
> harrumph when she aired the Wal-Mart heist footage, deserves more respect
> than the broadcasters who gave the tape the sort of nonjudgmental
commentary
> they might deliver if they were watching the perps vacuum the carpets at
> home.
>
> When disaster strikes, Americans?especially journalists?like to pretend
that
> no matter who gets hit, no matter what race, color, creed, or
socioeconomic
> level they hail from, we're all in it together. This spirit informs the
1997
> disaster flick Volcano, in which a "can't we all just get along" moment
> arrives at the film's end: Volcanic ash covers every face in the big crowd
> scene, and everybody realizes that we're all members of one united race.
>
> But we aren't one united race, we aren't one united class, and Katrina
> didn't hit all folks equally. By failing to acknowledge upfront that black
> New Orleanians?and perhaps black Mississippians?suffered more from Katrina
> than whites, the TV talkers may escape potential accusations that they're
> racist. But by ignoring race and class, they boot the journalistic
> opportunity to bring attention to the disenfranchisement of a whole
> definable segment of the population. What I wouldn't pay to hear a Fox
> anchor ask, "Say, Bob, why are these African-Americans so poor to begin
> with?"
>
> sidebar
> Return to article
>
>
>
> Jack Shafer is Slate's editor at large.
>
> Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2124688/
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 04:02:41 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:02:41 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin><001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID: <00bf01c5af73$2afa3e30$0100a8c0@kevin>
FYI. It's hard to get calls in, nut I have peope in Harahan that have power.
They also say that most of the area can receive text messages on cell
phones but can't get rhough on voice. Have you tried that?
----- Original Message -----
From: "MB"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 10:20 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
>
>
>
> On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Olga Bourlin wrote:
> >
> > I have a first cousin (with a husband and son) who has been living in
Metarie - just outside of New Orleans - for over a decade. I sent her an
email - hoping she will be an an internet cafe somewhere sometime - and
haven't heard back from her yet.
> >
>
>
> I have a childhood friend in Metarie and have received no response to
> my email. Guess she's without power. :( Hope she's ok.
>
>
> Regards,
> MB
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From spike66 at comcast.net Fri Sep 2 04:24:13 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 21:24:13 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <004f01c5af6e$958b60d0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID: <200509020426.j824QLw14232@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Olga Bourlin
...
> By Jack Shafer
> Posted Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2005, at 4:22 PM PT
>
>
> Nearly every rescued person, temporary resident of the Superdome, looter,
> or loiterer on the high ground of the freeway I saw on TV was African-
> American...
If an African-American is born in America, both her parents are
born in America, all her grandparents, great grandparents, and
their parents were born in America, at what point is it no longer
legitimate that she call herself African American? When does she
become, like me, a native American? I have an ancestor who was
born in Pretoria South Africa. May I call myself African
American? Will all my descendants, for all eternity, be able
to call themselves African American?
I suspect that only a very small percentage of the population
of New Orleans are real African Americans or have ever even
been to Africa.
Jack Shafer should let it go, be color blind and repent of
comments like this one:
>This sort of latent racism (or something more potent) may lurk in the
>hearts of many white people who end up on TV, as it does in the hearts of
>many who watch...
Guilty until proven innocent. Of course, it is impossible to
prove innocence of latent racism. This comment is *overt*
racism, blatant and shameful as all hell.
OK now I have said my piece on this, recall a suggestion
I made a couple years ago about setting up a number of
webcams that would not be controlled by any news agency
but rather would give an unbiased unblinking random survey
of a disaster area. The cams could be sampled by a web
surfer without artificially concentrating on the worst
places or seeking out any particular group of looters. Those
would tell the real story, would they not?
spike
From extropy at unreasonable.com Fri Sep 2 04:53:13 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 00:53:13 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Manhattan vs. New Orleans
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
My impression, from coverage and commentary, is that, to everyone's
pleasant surprise, beyond the quiet and extraordinary heroisms on
9/11, was a communal unity. There *wasn't* the expected uptick in
crime with the police busy elsewhere, or desperate people savaging
one another for a chance of survival. There *were* people pulling
together, and helping one another.
My impression, from coverage and commentary of New Orleans, is there
are heroics, but less dramatic. Certainly many people trying to help
one another. But an atmosphere in many areas of felonious barbarity.
Looting, rape, murder, brutality -- not to save oneself or one's
loved ones, but in sociopathic nihilism.
(1) Do you agree that these are the pictures that have been painted
for us of the two events?
(2) Do you think either reflect the gist of what has happened? If
not, what has caused the distortion(s)?
(3) What explains the differences between these two portrayed
responses? The causes of the events? The composition of the populace?
-- David.
From spike66 at comcast.net Fri Sep 2 05:24:58 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 22:24:58 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
gametheorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <200509020526.j825Qrw21330@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of user
> Re: peak oil debate framed from a gametheorystandpoint ?
...
>
>
> On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> > Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century economy
> > and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
> > knows not what they ask for...
User, I could see ethanol as a transition phase, where we add
more ethanol to gasoline over about a decade, to take advantage
of the infrastructure already in place. We could use the
existing gasoline stations, pumps, etc. Most modern internal
combustion engines can run on about 15% ethanol with no
modifications, and can go up to around 25% without too much
effort or expense.
An ethanol-gasoline mix could carry part of the load
while we gear up nuclear and coal fired power plants as well
as refineries suited to processing sour crude. We will need
a few years to get cars adapted to use electricity. Ethanol
could help get us thru the transition.
Here's a notion I had today. Assume a temporary
oil crisis such as one caused by Katrina. We know that
a 5% shortfall in supply can cause a huge and destructive
surge in price. On the other hand, a small fuel savings
could easily cover a 5% shortfall in supply. A government
could declare a temporary open season on what types
of vehicles are allowed on the roads. Many homes have a
dirt bike or other small rec vehicle that could be temporarily
declared street legal. We could declare a temporary 50 mph
speed limit for the month of September, in all but the far
left lane. This might encourage people to ride bicycles,
motorized scooters, go carts and dirt bikes on the street
for a few weeks, just long enough to get thru the crisis.
spike
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 05:56:18 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 22:56:18 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <20050902055618.37354.qmail@web60522.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
>
> Is it my imagination or is someone bumbling this
> entire rescue effort in New Orleans? I cannot
> believe for a second that FEMA just found out this
> morning that thousands of people were at the
> convention center and 8 hours later the best they
> could do was a single Blackhawk helicopter with
> bottled water.
Well I feel like its complaining about spilled milk,
but it seems pretty obvious to me. You can't cut
taxes, fund a $250 billion dollar ground war, AND be
prepared for disaster relief. Not unless the Federal
Government is somehow capable of magically creating
money and manpower. As far as I know the federal
government is drowning in a bathtub right now. It's
called the Mississippi Basin. We get what we ask for.
A little over half of us voted for these types of
policies, so we got exactly what we deserved.
This is 4 days after this event. I am
> certain there are supplies all around that area just
> waiting to get to people. Why aren't there C130s
> flying out of Baton Rouge dropping water and MREs?
> Where is the command and control center? >
We have most of our logistics infrastructure in the
middle east to support to our troops in Iraq. Even as
it is, the logistic support to the troops on the
ground is suboptimal in regards to certain things like
body armor and hard topped vehicles for convoy
support.
I don't believe there are that many spare C130s to
drop off any spare MREs to the people affected.
I hardly think an administration that can't foresee
the need for an exit strategy when entering a war
would have a contigency plan for natural disaster
during the war.
Karma is a bitch and nature does not care how
self-righteous you are. The humbling of America has
begun.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Fri Sep 2 06:32:04 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:32:04 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05 6:30 PM, "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
> Is it my imagination or is someone bumbling this entire rescue effort in New
> Orleans? I cannot believe for a second that FEMA just found out this morning
> that thousands of people were at the convention center and 8 hours later the
> best they could do was a single Blackhawk helicopter with bottled water. This
> is 4 days after this event. I am certain there are supplies all around that
> area just waiting to get to people. Why aren't there C130s flying out of Baton
> Rouge dropping water and MREs? Where is the command and control center?
A few points that you may have missed:
1) The Federal government has very limited jurisdiction in this case, and
the Feds have been very proactive to the extent they could be; they
pre-positioned most of their assets a couple days before the storm. The
truly grotesque failure of leadership and planning falls squarely on the
State of Louisiana, which not only shows clear evidence of having no plan
whatsoever but also is sitting on their asses rather than pushing the
necessary buttons required to get more Federal resources in there.
Remember, the State of Louisiana is a sovereign entity, and the Federal
government has very limited ability to act in their jurisdiction without
official permission by the governor. Unfortunately, the governor is WAY out
of her league, and clearly lost.
2) The logistical infrastructure has been so thoroughly destroyed that there
is extremely limited ability to deliver support. Dropping water and MREs
does not do much good if half the place is under a few meters of water.
Can't drive in, can't boat in, and can't fly in, for a country-sized region.
They are using what logistical assets they can reasonably mobilize under the
circumstances. Anybody expecting more has utterly unrealistic notions about
the nature of logistics under the circumstances.
3) What transportation elements can operate in this environment have a very
low carrying capacity that is entirely inadequate for the sheer number of
people the have to support. If there were only thousands of people left
behind, it would have been less of an issue, but there are hundreds of
thousands of people spread over a vast area. Massive airdrops are not
granular enough, as there is no distribution channel within the city once
you drop a pallet somewhere.
4) As further evidence, the disparities in competence and reaction between
affected States, notably Mississippi and Louisiana, is stark. Mississippi
is just about the poorest State in the country and took the hurricane head
on, thoroughly annihilating a fair portion of that State, but the
authorities took charge of the situation very quickly. Louisiana did not
prepare ahead of time, and then sat around with a thumb up their ass after
the fact. Looting in Mississippi was squashed with extreme prejudice early
on.
The biggest villains in this whole mess is the State of Louisiana, and its
leaders. Criminal incompetence and negligence, amplified by a genuine
crisis. Heads are going to roll in the that State when this is all over.
J. Andrew Rogers
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Fri Sep 2 06:32:16 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:32:16 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon
makes headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05 7:28 PM, "Mike Lorrey" wrote:
>
>
> --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
>
>> On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>>>
>>> --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>>>
>>
> http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
>>>>>
>>>>> The HELLADS is intended to be mountable on tactical aircraft, a
>>>> Hummer,
>>>>> or UCAVs and offer performance of 5 kg/kW weapon weight with
>> 150 kW
>>>>> beam energy. So it should come in at about 750 lbs in a design
>>>> useful
>>>>> on the battlefield
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar
>>>> rounds etc in carbon fibre mat.
>>>> I've seen lasers with a higher power density than that stopped
>> dead
>>>> by it. Makes a pretty light, though, as it re-radiates.
>>>
>>> I'm sure, though I'm not too sure that the mat doesn't abrade the
>> bore
>>> of the mortar. Even so, if it gives off that much heat, radiating
>> the
>>> laser energy, it should be easily targetable by a perimter defense
>>> phalanx gun with a FLIR seeker.
>>>
>>
>> Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a
>> HEL to illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
>
> Hardly. A radar itself can be homed in on with an anti-radiation
> missile or other weapon. A FLIR is passive, and thus a better sensor,
> just as passive sonar is more secure than active sonar.
>
>> IIRC the US and Israel were talking of deploying a similar system to
>> hit katyusha rockets fired at settlements. haven't heard much since
>> about it though.
>> Problem is that hardening munitions against laser energy is
>> relatively easy.
>> Maybe all hamas/Hezbollah would have to do is either polish the
>> rockets or
>> coat them in sawdust/glue. There is not an infinitely long time
>> window in which to down these things.
>>
>> I suspect that the reason it's being deployed on aircraft is to zap
>> MANPADS
>> like Stinger that rely on delicate sensors so more low level flying
>> can be undertaken in places like Afghanistan.
>
> Actually, the THEL has been tested against katyushas. And despite the
> claims of the disparagers, polishing or sawdust and glue doesn't do
> anything to protect against a high energy laser. Its all well and good
> to talk about it, but proving it is another thing.
>
> Mike Lorrey
> Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
> http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
> Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
>
>
>
> __________________________________
> Yahoo! Mail
> Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
> http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From megao at sasktel.net Fri Sep 2 05:40:01 2005
From: megao at sasktel.net (Lifespan Pharma Inc.)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 00:40:01 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] news in perspective
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID: <4317E5B1.6040508@sasktel.net>
This may be a bit tasteless to say but the New Orleans lost city by
water is much the same to its residents as the loss of
Bagdad or Beirut to war has been to their residents.
Amara Graps wrote:
> spike:
>
>> ps The news on in the background as I write. Damn that
>> flood in New Orleans is bad. {8-[
>
>
> Yes, it is bad.
>
> And so is the ~1000 people in Baghdad who died on a pilgrimage
> during the time of New Orleans' terrible misfortune. (was that
> reported?)
>
> And so is 200,000 people who died in the tsunami.
>
> Death is bad. And I wish the American media would learn to put
> news in perspective. Even Boing-boing has gone over the top (I
> don't remember them reporting this much after the tsunami for
> example).
>
> Amara
>
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Fri Sep 2 06:44:34 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:44:34 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon
makes headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05 7:28 PM, "Mike Lorrey" wrote:
> --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
>> Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a
>> HEL to illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
>
> Hardly. A radar itself can be homed in on with an anti-radiation
> missile or other weapon. A FLIR is passive, and thus a better sensor,
> just as passive sonar is more secure than active sonar.
State-of-the-art active radar systems do not detectably radiate at all,
another very, very slick piece of American military technology. It is how
stealth attack aircraft like the F-22 can use search radar while still being
invisible in the broad RF spectrum.
Broad spectrum IR imaging is much better for terminal guidance because it
can be made very smart. Modern guidance packages of this type can determine
the make and model of their target a long way off, and sometimes the country
that owns the hardware. Which is why modern IR guidance packages are all
but impervious to decoys and spoofing.
> Actually, the THEL has been tested against katyushas. And despite the
> claims of the disparagers, polishing or sawdust and glue doesn't do
> anything to protect against a high energy laser. Its all well and good
> to talk about it, but proving it is another thing.
Many critics fail to understand that at some level of power, a laser is
qualitatively different in its interaction with matter than a milliwatt
laser pointer. These lasers have proven quite effective against dumb/hard
targets.
J. Andrew Rogers
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 06:47:55 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2005 23:47:55 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <4317B09C.3090502@cox.net>
Message-ID: <20050902064756.85722.qmail@web60519.mail.yahoo.com>
--- Dan Clemmensen wrote:
>
>
> By contrast, a hurricane-induced break in New
> Orleans' levees was
> predictable, predicted, and evaluated as the most
> likely major disaster
> in the US.
Yes but we all know that the people in charge do not
listen to learned experts but instead to a loud
booming voice in their head they call God.
>
> Humans need a gallon of drinking water a day, plus
> some washing water.
> Just how hard is it to commandeer all the water
> trucks in the towns
> along the Lower Mississippi river, place hen in
> barges, and send the to
> New Orleans? In my (rich) neighborhood, there are
> several companies that
> have such trucks. Each truck has a 7000-gallon tank.
> the trucks are used
> to fill swimming pools. 20 trucks a day will support
> 140,000 people. A
> single tow-boat per day can trivially handle enough
> barges to carry the
> food and water for 100,000 people.
Yes. Also what they ought to do is bring in powered
and solar stills. The problem is not there isn't any
water there, the problem is that it is contaminated.
Bringing them a gallon of water keeps one of them
hydrated for a day. Bring them a still and that person
can be hydrated indefinately.
>
> What astounded me was the inattention the press gave
> to the levees. The
> press did their hurricane thing, looking at the
> "standard" hurricane
> damage in Biloxi and Gulfport,and they thought New
> Orleans was the same.
> The canal levee was breached on Monday afternoon,and
> the press ignored
> it until noon on Tuesday. The breach was the most
> important part of the
> story, and anyone with the sense god gave a
> grasshopper should have
> known it (with <10 minutes of research) at the time
> Katrina first turned
> north in the gulf. I sure did. If I knew it, the
> governor of Louisiana
> should have known it. When the Mayor (correctly and
> courageously)
> ordered the evacuation and estimated that 100,000
> would be left behind,
> the governor should have commandeered the water
> trucks and ordered them
> filled. Of course, someone should also have
> recommended that everyone
> remaining in New Orleans fill their bathtubs with
> double layered
> 30-gallon garbage bags full of water, and everyone
> should have placed
> all dry food into double garbage bags, but that's
> too simple. I guess.
I am sure they ( the local government) did the best
they could. The notion that someone might be in need
of water after a flood may not come easy to many
people.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
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From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Fri Sep 2 06:48:54 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:48:54 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon
makes headway
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID:
On 9/1/05 11:32 PM, "J. Andrew Rogers" wrote:
[...empty response elided...]
I have no idea how that happened. Must have been an email client hiccup or
operator stupidity.
Sorry.
J. Andrew Rogers
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 07:09:27 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 00:09:27 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050902023709.43132.qmail@web30707.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050902070928.53082.qmail@web60517.mail.yahoo.com>
--- Mike Lorrey wrote:
> On the contrary, and contrary to the Green agrarian
> mythology, putting
> the burden on the agricultural system means much
> more farmland put
> under plow, and much more forest re-re-claimed for
> farmland, means
> ecological devastation. It is farmland that destroys
> wildlife habitat.
> VT and NH were once 90% farmland for only two
> things: a) to grow hay
> for all the horses in New York City and Boston, and
> b) to grow sheep
> for wool for keeping NYers and Beantowners warm in
> those cold cold
> winters of the late 19th century when we were headed
> into an ice age.
>
> Today it is reversed: VT and NH are 90% forest, we
> have more wildlife
> than before the europeans came here, and NY and
> Boston are not hip deep
> in horseshit, disease, and stink.
>
> Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a
> 19th century economy
> and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it
> is a luddite who
> knows not what they ask for.
I could probably supply all the ethanol and biodiesel
the United States would need by harvesting seaweed
from the sargasso sea. This would not require one
additinal acre of farmland.
>
> Besides all that, all the distillery mash will
> release much more
> methane into the atmosphere. Scientists had thought
> methane was six
> times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. A
> report just came out
> that its actually 12 times more powerful.
A well designed bioreactor would use the methane
generated to power the distillation process. You are
making your judgements based on unenlightened technology.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 07:58:14 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 00:58:14 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <200509020259.j822x7w03358@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050902075814.93092.qmail@web60512.mail.yahoo.com>
--- spike wrote:
If you don't have a RO water pump, that
> might be a good thing to have in your emergency
> supplies closet.
One can make a pretty good solar powered still using a
washtub, a bucket (or coffee can), some string or duct
tape, a plastic garbage bag or other large sheet of
plastic, and two small rocks (preferably clean).
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 08:28:21 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 01:28:21 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050902082821.53082.qmail@web60514.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "J. Andrew Rogers"
wrote:
The logistical infrastructure has been so
> thoroughly destroyed that there
> is extremely limited ability to deliver support.
> Dropping water and MREs
> does not do much good if half the place is under a
> few meters of water.
> Can't drive in, can't boat in, and can't fly in, for
> a country-sized region.
> They are using what logistical assets they can
> reasonably mobilize under the
> circumstances. Anybody expecting more has utterly
> unrealistic notions about
> the nature of logistics under the circumstances.
>
> 3) What transportation elements can operate in this
> environment have a very
> low carrying capacity that is entirely inadequate
> for the sheer number of
> people the have to support. If there were only
> thousands of people left
> behind, it would have been less of an issue, but
> there are hundreds of
> thousands of people spread over a vast area.
> Massive airdrops are not
> granular enough, as there is no distribution channel
> within the city once
> you drop a pallet somewhere.
You have some excellent points here. Doesn't the navy
have amphibious hovercraft? It seems like hovercraft
and amphibious assault vehicles may be the vehicles of
choice for relief efforts in NO.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 08:36:23 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 01:36:23 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050902083624.53965.qmail@web60514.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "J. Andrew Rogers" >
I have no idea how that happened. Must have been an
> email client hiccup or
> operator stupidity.
>
> Sorry.
It's ok Light-Fighter, it happens to the best of us.
:)
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________
Yahoo! Mail
Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
From jay.dugger at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 08:41:26 2005
From: jay.dugger at gmail.com (Jay Dugger)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 03:41:26 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Towards Higher Quality, was: ping - please ignore
In-Reply-To: <20050901194429.99010.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050901194429.99010.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <5366105b05090201415c47a509@mail.gmail.com>
On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> I for one miss the old Extropy magazine, both the print and online
> versions. They gave an outlet for high quality, in depth, well reasoned
> articles by extropic writers for like-minded to keep abreast of the
> movement without having to wade through a lot of diluted pap and
> sniping on email lists.
Me too. Anyone have back issues for sale? Contact me off-list, if you please.
>
> Rather than an 'extropy-great' list, I'd suggest instead that we form a
> committee moderated blog that folks can forward posts and articles of
> interest to, people can comment on, trackback, etc. etc. and move ExI
> technology forward. Email lists are getting so last century.
>
Somewhat related--any volunteers (or anyone already doing it) for
reviewing 'transhumanism" and related tags on del.icio.us/technorati?
That might make a good first step towards a collaborative filter. A
group blog has a couple of candidates, doesn't it? Transhumanism.org,
JEET, etc.
--
Jay Dugger
BLOG: http://hellofrom.blogspot.com/
HOME: http://www.owlmirror.net/~duggerj/
LINKS: http://del.icio.us/jay.dugger
Sometimes the delete key serves best.
From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 08:41:42 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 09:41:42 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
>
> On 9/1/05 7:28 PM, "Mike Lorrey" wrote:
> > --- Dirk Bruere wrote:
> >> Well, mortar rounds are already quite trackable by radar so using a
> >> HEL to illuminate them seems a bit redundant.
> >
> > Hardly. A radar itself can be homed in on with an anti-radiation
> > missile or other weapon. A FLIR is passive, and thus a better sensor,
> > just as passive sonar is more secure than active sonar.
>
>
> State-of-the-art active radar systems do not detectably radiate at all,
> another very, very slick piece of American military technology. It is how
> stealth attack aircraft like the F-22 can use search radar while still
> being
> invisible in the broad RF spectrum.
>
> Broad spectrum IR imaging is much better for terminal guidance because it
> can be made very smart. Modern guidance packages of this type can
> determine
> the make and model of their target a long way off, and sometimes the
> country
> that owns the hardware. Which is why modern IR guidance packages are all
> but impervious to decoys and spoofing.
>
>
> > Actually, the THEL has been tested against katyushas. And despite the
> > claims of the disparagers, polishing or sawdust and glue doesn't do
> > anything to protect against a high energy laser. Its all well and good
> > to talk about it, but proving it is another thing.
>
>
> Many critics fail to understand that at some level of power, a laser is
> qualitatively different in its interaction with matter than a milliwatt
> laser pointer. These lasers have proven quite effective against dumb/hard
> targets.
>
Well, the 100kW aint it.
I've worked on lasers putting out 1kW onto 10 mm square carbon fibre mat and
it does zilch. Dry hardwood is almost as good.
Now work out the power density of the 100kW laser compared to beam size on
target.
There are numerous ways to absorb, deflect or reradiate that kind of power
for the few seconds necessary for the munition to reach its target.
Bear in mind that these systems are used in the terminal phase of attack.
The laser will work with PGMs, but not with dumb katyushas that have been
hardened.
Dirk
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From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 08:45:08 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 09:45:08 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] Manhattan vs. New Orleans
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, David Lubkin wrote:
>
> My impression, from coverage and commentary, is that, to everyone's
> pleasant surprise, beyond the quiet and extraordinary heroisms on
> 9/11, was a communal unity. There *wasn't* the expected uptick in
> crime with the police busy elsewhere, or desperate people savaging
> one another for a chance of survival. There *were* people pulling
> together, and helping one another.
>
> My impression, from coverage and commentary of New Orleans, is there
> are heroics, but less dramatic. Certainly many people trying to help
> one another. But an atmosphere in many areas of felonious barbarity.
> Looting, rape, murder, brutality -- not to save oneself or one's
> loved ones, but in sociopathic nihilism.
>
> (1) Do you agree that these are the pictures that have been painted
> for us of the two events?
>
> (2) Do you think either reflect the gist of what has happened? If
> not, what has caused the distortion(s)?
>
> (3) What explains the differences between these two portrayed
> responses? The causes of the events? The composition of the populace?
>
> No doubt racists will draw their own conclusions, but the major factor is
that with 9/11 the victims died pretty much all in one rapid hit while
everyone else was OK.
In NO the victims are still alive and suffering a protracted disaster. Plus
there are far more actual victims in a city that has been effectivelt
destroyed. In NY IIRC three buildings were knocked over. No big deal in real
estate terms (except to insurers).
Dirk
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From eugen at leitl.org Fri Sep 2 08:46:55 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 10:46:55 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <20050902075814.93092.qmail@web60512.mail.yahoo.com>
References: <200509020259.j822x7w03358@tick.javien.com>
<20050902075814.93092.qmail@web60512.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050902084655.GI2249@leitl.org>
On Fri, Sep 02, 2005 at 12:58:14AM -0700, The Avantguardian wrote:
>
>
> --- spike wrote:
>
> If you don't have a RO water pump, that
> > might be a good thing to have in your emergency
> > supplies closet.
>
> One can make a pretty good solar powered still using a
> washtub, a bucket (or coffee can), some string or duct
> tape, a plastic garbage bag or other large sheet of
> plastic, and two small rocks (preferably clean).
People, there are lists and whole treatises devoted to what's
to be in your emergency kit.
Don't reinvent the wheel, find them, and use them.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From sjatkins at mac.com Fri Sep 2 10:10:09 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 03:10:09 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID: <49949997-4BC2-4934-8705-E6C92FD3B997@mac.com>
On Sep 1, 2005, at 11:32 PM, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
>
> A few points that you may have missed:
>
> 1) The Federal government has very limited jurisdiction in this
> case, and
> the Feds have been very proactive to the extent they could be; they
> pre-positioned most of their assets a couple days before the
> storm. The
> truly grotesque failure of leadership and planning falls squarely
> on the
> State of Louisiana, which not only shows clear evidence of having
> no plan
> whatsoever but also is sitting on their asses rather than pushing the
> necessary buttons required to get more Federal resources in there.
> Remember, the State of Louisiana is a sovereign entity, and the
> Federal
> government has very limited ability to act in their jurisdiction
> without
> official permission by the governor. Unfortunately, the governor
> is WAY out
> of her league, and clearly lost.
>
As I understand it it is very much the job of FEMA and the National
Guard to coordinate large scale crisis response. What is in the way
of that happening? I don't think they are waiting on some missing
local permission. So what has broken down there? Surely it cant' be
that hard to evacuate the rest of New Orleans and get the people
water and food in the meantime. I see no real justification for
your casting blame on the Louisiana leadership. In any case I am not
real interested in casting blame right now. I just want the rest of
the people evacuated and their needs taken care of NOW. This
sovereignty argument seems like a bad joke of an excuse. The Feds
have been running roughshod over state's rights. FEMA has a mandate
to supersede and coordinate local efforts in an emergency anyway as I
understand it. There is no reason whatsoever to believe the governor
would do less than beg for all possible help in any case.
> 2) The logistical infrastructure has been so thoroughly destroyed
> that there
> is extremely limited ability to deliver support. Dropping water
> and MREs
> does not do much good if half the place is under a few meters of
> water.
> Can't drive in, can't boat in, and can't fly in, for a country-
> sized region.
> They are using what logistical assets they can reasonably mobilize
> under the
> circumstances. Anybody expecting more has utterly unrealistic
> notions about
> the nature of logistics under the circumstances.
Are you saying that we do not have the means to lower pallets of
goods from military helicopters exactly where we want them? We
surely can fly in and we can boat most of the way in. Are you saying
that marines can't manage to get into a disaster zone in America but
can kick bitt anywhere and everywhere else in the world? I do not
believe this. Besides. A lot of the people are in very packed and
accessible places. Even they are not being remotely taken care of.
What is the excuse for that?
>
> 3) What transportation elements can operate in this environment
> have a very
> low carrying capacity that is entirely inadequate for the sheer
> number of
> people the have to support. If there were only thousands of people
> left
> behind, it would have been less of an issue, but there are hundreds of
> thousands of people spread over a vast area. Massive airdrops are not
> granular enough, as there is no distribution channel within the
> city once
> you drop a pallet somewhere.
They are a start and a lot better than sitting back and letting the
people go berserk on top of all their other losses. Dropping a
pallet with some easy way to find it at least puts resources on the
ground and is an improvement.
>
> 4) As further evidence, the disparities in competence and reaction
> between
> affected States, notably Mississippi and Louisiana, is stark.
> Mississippi
> is just about the poorest State in the country and took the
> hurricane head
> on, thoroughly annihilating a fair portion of that State, but the
> authorities took charge of the situation very quickly. Louisiana
> did not
> prepare ahead of time, and then sat around with a thumb up their
> ass after
> the fact. Looting in Mississippi was squashed with extreme
> prejudice early
> on.
New Orleans is a very different beast than most of Mississippi. It
is basically a bowl protected from its lake and the Ocean by the
sides of the bowl. In a major storm surge or breach the bowl can
start filling with water flooding much of the city. I do not know of
an equally fragile large metropolitan area in Mississippi that faces
the same challenges.
>
>
> The biggest villains in this whole mess is the State of Louisiana,
> and its
> leaders. Criminal incompetence and negligence, amplified by a genuine
> crisis. Heads are going to roll in the that State when this is all
> over.
I wish we would stop looking for who to blame and get on with saving
lives. I wish we would study all the things that went wrong to
build better safeguards and procedures for the next crises. And it
is certainly true that all the states have received a lot less
federal dollars. Their budgets are seriously strained.
Infrastructure needs are being slighted all over the country. And
yes some of that is the fault of this federal administration and the
asinine war on terror and especially the war in Iraq.
- samantha
From eugen at leitl.org Fri Sep 2 10:34:47 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 12:34:47 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050902103447.GT2249@leitl.org>
On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 11:44:34PM -0700, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
> State-of-the-art active radar systems do not detectably radiate at all,
> another very, very slick piece of American military technology. It is how
I don't see how this is supposed to be possible. Are you sure you're not
meaning passive radar?
> stealth attack aircraft like the F-22 can use search radar while still being
> invisible in the broad RF spectrum.
>
> Many critics fail to understand that at some level of power, a laser is
> qualitatively different in its interaction with matter than a milliwatt
> laser pointer. These lasers have proven quite effective against dumb/hard
> targets.
At some level of power, you have plasma defocusing the beam in the path,
requiring very large apertures, which make such lasers not portable. Over
distances, you need active optics tracking the beam despite atmospheric
microlensing.
Mirorring the target makes it effectively immune against laser (though
the sensors remain the weak part of it, of course).
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From mbb386 at main.nc.us Fri Sep 2 10:46:20 2005
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 06:46:20 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <00bf01c5af73$2afa3e30$0100a8c0@kevin>
References: <001f01c5af5d$f72f78f0$0100a8c0@kevin><001901c5af60$3465b890$6600a8c0@brainiac>
<00bf01c5af73$2afa3e30$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID:
No, I have not. I do not have her cell phone number and there's
nothing I could do for her anyway. I am concerned, but maybe she went
to family in SC or something. I'll wait.
Thanks for the info, though. :)
It's good to hear some positive news from the area. :)
I remember Hurricane Hugo in Charleston some years ago and it was
devastating, though not as bad. It was a couple of weeks before power
was restored to our family. At that point we went to help with
cleanup.
Regards,
MB
On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, kevinfreels.com wrote:
> FYI. It's hard to get calls in, nut I have peope in Harahan that have power.
> They also say that most of the area can receive text messages on cell
> phones but can't get rhough on voice. Have you tried that?
>
From eugen at leitl.org Fri Sep 2 11:21:55 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 13:21:55 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
gametheorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <200509020526.j825Qrw21330@tick.javien.com>
References:
<200509020526.j825Qrw21330@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050902112155.GY2249@leitl.org>
On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 10:24:58PM -0700, spike wrote:
> > bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of user
> > Re: peak oil debate framed from a gametheorystandpoint ?
> ...
> >
> >
> > On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> >
> > > Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century economy
> > > and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
> > > knows not what they ask for...
>
> User, I could see ethanol as a transition phase, where we add
Why ethanol, on earth? Why not synmethanol? Or biodiesel, if
you absolutely have to curry favors to big dirty agribusiness?
Why not simply lighter, more efficient vehicles (my car averages
about 6.2 l/100 km, which is probably half or less of the typical
U.S. car, not even SUV)?
> more ethanol to gasoline over about a decade, to take advantage
> of the infrastructure already in place. We could use the
An onboard fuel reformer, or a high-temperature fuel cell
would make the most advantage from the infrastructure in place.
Alcohols are too corrosive for the current infrastructure, unless
used just as additives -- but why bother with footnotes?
> existing gasoline stations, pumps, etc. Most modern internal
> combustion engines can run on about 15% ethanol with no
> modifications, and can go up to around 25% without too much
> effort or expense.
What is the half life of a modern car? A few years, typically.
It would make more sense to just stick to new vehicles.
> An ethanol-gasoline mix could carry part of the load
> while we gear up nuclear and coal fired power plants as well
Nuke? Coal? Are you crazy?
> as refineries suited to processing sour crude. We will need
> a few years to get cars adapted to use electricity. Ethanol
EVs are around. You won't achieve a redesign in a few years,
at least as long as established manufactures are merely sticking
to putting lipstick on a pig.
> could help get us thru the transition.
No, it would be a big mistake to make. Biodiesel would be
a far smaller mistake, if you insist to make any.
> Here's a notion I had today. Assume a temporary
> oil crisis such as one caused by Katrina. We know that
This isn't just Katrina:
http://benzinpreis.de/statistik.phtml?o=7&jahr=2005&sorte=Normal
> a 5% shortfall in supply can cause a huge and destructive
> surge in price. On the other hand, a small fuel savings
> could easily cover a 5% shortfall in supply. A government
Or you could just use a price ratchet via taxes, allowing
a monotonous slow increase in prices. We've been at
>6.5 US$/gallon for a long time. You'll get used to it, too.
> could declare a temporary open season on what types
> of vehicles are allowed on the roads. Many homes have a
> dirt bike or other small rec vehicle that could be temporarily
> declared street legal. We could declare a temporary 50 mph
> speed limit for the month of September, in all but the far
> left lane. This might encourage people to ride bicycles,
> motorized scooters, go carts and dirt bikes on the street
> for a few weeks, just long enough to get thru the crisis.
The crisis is completely artificial. I don't think your legislation
changes have any real bite to it.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From eugen at leitl.org Fri Sep 2 11:31:33 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 13:31:33 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Manhattan vs. New Orleans
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <20050902113133.GZ2249@leitl.org>
On Fri, Sep 02, 2005 at 12:53:13AM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:
> My impression, from coverage and commentary of New Orleans, is there
My impression from third-hand information from the trenches is
that the mass media are innacurate and really slow (by at least 24 h)
reporters. Some rather interesting news gets entirely unreported. YMMV.
> are heroics, but less dramatic. Certainly many people trying to help
> one another. But an atmosphere in many areas of felonious barbarity.
> Looting, rape, murder, brutality -- not to save oneself or one's
> loved ones, but in sociopathic nihilism.
Local police command chain has become dissociated, with local forces
participating in the looting. Failure to enforce order has caused
external support to stop for time being. Patients are dying like flies.
> (1) Do you agree that these are the pictures that have been painted
> for us of the two events?
Painted by whom?
> (2) Do you think either reflect the gist of what has happened? If
> not, what has caused the distortion(s)?
I don't see any active distortion in the mass media which is not
caused by the usual incompetence.
> (3) What explains the differences between these two portrayed
> responses? The causes of the events? The composition of the populace?
The two classes of events are completely incomparable at about
every level. I won't even start enumerating.
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From bret at bonfireproductions.com Fri Sep 2 13:36:34 2005
From: bret at bonfireproductions.com (Bret Kulakovich)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 09:36:34 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Waterford-3 plant outside NOLA?
Message-ID: <44D552AF-8667-4871-8049-A37614CA8305@bonfireproductions.com>
Anyone know how the Waterford-3 nuclear plant made out? I understand
it is just up the river from New Orleans.
If we're having security issues in the area, this could be a problem.
I just haven't heard anything on the feeds about it, which I find
curious.
]3
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 13:37:42 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 06:37:42 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <4317C127.3030707@aol.com>
Message-ID: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Your chemistry book deals with converting sugar. You need to turn to
the pages where it talks about the decay products of the starches,
fiber, protiens, and other compounds that make up plant structure. Ever
heard of swamp gas? It's methane. Comes from when man or nature dumps
plant waste en masse. Now considered 12 times more greenhousey than
CO2, and plants don't absorb it from the atmosphere like they do CO2.
--- Robert Lindauer wrote:
> Interesting, my chemistry book says:
>
> C6Hl2O6 ??? 2 CH3CH2OH + 2 CO2 + energy
>
> glucose ethyl alcohol carbon dioxide
>
> As for fallow land, in 1980, around 170,000 acres in Hawaii were
> dedicated to sugar production, now down to 20k acres, with 150k acres
> laying, for the most part, fallow.
Actually, returning to jungle, as it should.
>
> Here it's good sense.
>
> In the midwest where they continue to produce corn in abundance,
> corn-produced alcohol averages about $2.12 per gallon buying corn at
> market rates, not even touching the abundant supply.
>
> Robbie
>
>
> Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> >On the contrary, and contrary to the Green agrarian mythology,
> putting
> >the burden on the agricultural system means much more farmland put
> >under plow, and much more forest re-re-claimed for farmland, means
> >ecological devastation. It is farmland that destroys wildlife
> habitat.
> >VT and NH were once 90% farmland for only two things: a) to grow hay
> >for all the horses in New York City and Boston, and b) to grow sheep
> >for wool for keeping NYers and Beantowners warm in those cold cold
> >winters of the late 19th century when we were headed into an ice
> age.
> >
> >Today it is reversed: VT and NH are 90% forest, we have more
> wildlife
> >than before the europeans came here, and NY and Boston are not hip
> deep
> >in horseshit, disease, and stink.
> >
> >Insisting on agri-ethanol will push us back to a 19th century
> economy
> >and ecological devastation. Anyone who advocates it is a luddite who
> >knows not what they ask for.
> >
> >Besides all that, all the distillery mash will release much more
> >methane into the atmosphere. Scientists had thought methane was six
> >times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. A report just came
> out
> >that its actually 12 times more powerful.
> >
> >--- Robert Lindauer wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >>A green point here:
> >>
> >>If everyone had their own ethanol still it wouldn't be half the
> >>problem
> >>it is now - and there wouldn't be the polution problem either.
> >>
> >>Robbie
> >>
> >>
> >>Andrew Beck wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>>>If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth
> that
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>much
> >>
> >>
> >>>>in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth
> and
> >>>>selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense. It
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>would
> >>
> >>
> >>>>be more profitable to reduce your pumping to the minimum
> necessary
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>to
> >>
> >>
> >>>>cover expenses, and to keep it in the ground until the oil is far
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>more
> >>
> >>
> >>>>valuable than it is today.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>The thing about the peak oil debate is that it doesn't take the
> oil
> >>>
> >>>
> >>to be nearly gone for it to shoot through the roof in price, just a
> >>small decline in oil supply will make the price go way up because
> of
> >>people's complete reliance on oil and refusal to comprimise their
> >>easy living. Case in point in the 70s when the supply dropped 5%
> >>prices shot up 400%. So all that will make the price of oil shoot
> up
> >>is when the supply slows down a bit. The reserves should still be
> at
> >>least halfway full at that point, so now quanitity is good and
> won't
> >>comprimise the oil companies reserves when the supply is running
> out.
> >>
> >>
> >>>Also I don't think anybody except oil execuatives are in a
> position
> >>>
> >>>
> >>to say if they are storing a few wells for a rainy day.
> >>
> >>
> >>>_______________________________________________
> >>>extropy-chat mailing list
> >>>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> >>>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>_______________________________________________
> >>extropy-chat mailing list
> >>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> >>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >Mike Lorrey
> >Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> >Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
> >http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
> >Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
> >
> >
> >
> >__________________________________
> >Yahoo! Mail
> >Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
> >http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >extropy-chat mailing list
> >extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> >http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >
> >
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
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From nvitamore at austin.rr.com Fri Sep 2 13:46:24 2005
From: nvitamore at austin.rr.com (nvitamore at austin.rr.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 09:46:24 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Waterford-3 plant outside NOLA?
Message-ID: <380-22005952134624870@M2W057.mail2web.com>
From: Bret Kulakovich
>Anyone know how the Waterford-3 nuclear plant made out? I understand
>it is just up the river from New Orleans.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9118049/
http://www.katc.com/Global/story.asp?S=3776111
--------------------------------------------------------------------
mail2web - Check your email from the web at
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 13:59:13 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 06:59:13 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <00b901c5af72$fe514a40$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <20050902135913.43602.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
> This whole article is crap. Indeed, why are so many of them poor?
> Could it be the spirit of entitlement in the area? The fact that
> everyone there xepects a handout? The fact that everyone expected
> that if anything happened, someone would take care of them?
> And who would be responsible for this? Me? You? The racist "american
> people"? This is crap. Their mayor is black. If anyone is responsible
> it is him. These journalists act like this is the result of some huge
> racial conspiracy. No doubt someone will say this was planned by
white
> people. This has nothing to do with race. It is incompetence and
> ignorance.
Sure is, but you know the media would rather point fingers at Bush than
at Nagin. Nagin, after all, spent millions trying to sue gun makers for
the crimes of criminals. The media is incapable of criticising an
incompetent black unless they are also an 'uncle tom' republican.
> I know I started this thread. and I just had a thought.
> These people have been sitting there for 4 days and yet camera crews
> and police cars can drive by? Why the hell do they just sit there?
Because government said buses were coming, and waiting to ride a bus is
a lot less effort than walking ten or twenty miles. After all, it's
governments job to take care of people, innit? Of course, a lot of them
are now pissed off cause it took three days to get enough buses there,
which is to be expected when all the population of a city with any
intelligence and initiative evacuates: those left have no idea how to
run anything.
Those complaining about the response should also consider that, as you
are wondering why your friends in the area are not emailing you, the
fact is that the entire communications system of the region is
non-existent. Thousands of trees down on phone and power and cable
wires. Cell towers destroyed, or dependent on connections to
now-non-existent land line phone services. Companies are just now
moving portable cells into the area.
> Sure, there are some who couldn;t make the walk, but by the looks of
> the peopole I would guess that most of those "trapped without food"
> could just walk out at any time.
A lot of those look like a few weeks without food would do them a world
of good.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________
Yahoo! Mail
Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour:
http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html
From megao at sasktel.net Fri Sep 2 13:13:06 2005
From: megao at sasktel.net (Lifespan Pharma Inc.)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 08:13:06 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] profitable arbitrage VS gouging/profiteering on
disaster
Message-ID: <43184FE2.4040900@sasktel.net>
I asked someone in the oilpatch who invest, re-invests and has made good
from the last few years of oil
activity where the money goes from oil investment profits.
He said most is still re-invested.
What I wanted to know is where else is it might be going.
Is the bubble still moving along or are some starting to diversify?
Price wise the overnight move from 1.00-1.20/liter CAD is not prompted
by supply and demand
as I can't see supply bid up for actual delivery that dramatically,
that fast.
However unleaded gas and heating oil options I can see moving overnight.
In this case I am of the opinion that an executive order should have
been made as a pre-emptive
to cap upward moves in options to say 1/2 a cent a day so that the
supply-demand crisis would
not simply flush the consumer dollars into options traders profiting on
fear/catastrophe in a manner
not actually related to market forces.
This sort of thing happened with the first BSE with beef and I still
remember the phone call
I got just as the news broke asking if I wanted to capture the move on
beef and
"ride it all the way to the bottom".
This the sort of thing both our prime minister and the USA president
could have done
just ahead of the actual crisis to buffer the shock to the population.
In my mind this is one of the few things a government can do independant
of the market
which is intended to be for the general good VS the gouging by a few
well placed
arbitragers getting an exhorbitant windfall.
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 14:10:24 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 07:10:24 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050902141024.25653.qmail@web30708.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Dirk Bruere wrote:>
> Well, the 100kW aint it.
> I've worked on lasers putting out 1kW onto 10 mm square carbon fibre
> mat and it does zilch. Dry hardwood is almost as good.
> Now work out the power density of the 100kW laser compared to beam
> size on target.
100 kW is qualitatively different from 1 kW just as a microwave oven is
different from a radar gun.
>
> There are numerous ways to absorb, deflect or reradiate that kind of
> power for the few seconds necessary for the munition to reach its
> target. Bear in mind that these systems are used in the terminal
> phase of attack. The laser will work with PGMs, but not with dumb
> katyushas that have been hardened.
Any dumb ballistic weapon that you force to be modified with graphite
sheets, glue, sawdust, etc will, even if they prevent laser pulse
attack, so fundamentally change the ballistic characteristics of the
warhead as to make it unusable unless the modifications are done by the
manufacturer and he publishes ballistic tables for the new design.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Fri Sep 2 14:19:13 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 07:19:13 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902103447.GT2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <20050902141913.39808.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Eugen Leitl wrote:
>
> At some level of power, you have plasma defocusing the beam in the
> path,
> requiring very large apertures, which make such lasers not portable.
> Over distances, you need active optics tracking the beam despite
> atmospheric microlensing.
>
> Mirorring the target makes it effectively immune against laser
> (though the sensors remain the weak part of it, of course).
Ever changed a halogen bulb? High concentration light has difficulty
with impurities. The oil and/or dirt from a fingerprint on such a bulb
will cause it to fail, either immediately, or soon.
So what if you mirror the surface of a mortar round at the factory?
Your grunts are going to get it dirty, are going to handle it with bare
oily hands, so that even if you are able to mirror polish the surface
to a high enough degree for a laser (which will require polishing to
such a degree that the mortar round's price inflates from a few bucks
up to thousands of dollars each, thus making your war much more
expensive), your grunts are going to negate all that with handling.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________
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From bret at bonfireproductions.com Fri Sep 2 14:20:17 2005
From: bret at bonfireproductions.com (Bret Kulakovich)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 10:20:17 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Waterford-3 plant outside NOLA?
In-Reply-To: <380-22005952134624870@M2W057.mail2web.com>
References: <380-22005952134624870@M2W057.mail2web.com>
Message-ID: <8CB547AA-0433-4AA8-ABA6-906BF5F5E62A@bonfireproductions.com>
Phew. Thanks Natasha - why that didn't come up under Google news, I
don't know. I only found mention in a 'why there is no power for
pipelines' article from a few days ago, and that the plant was
offlined before Katrina arrived. Maybe it was my spelling. I remember
seeing Waterford from the air a few years back, and it had just
occurred to me where I was at the time.
Thanks again,
Bret
On Sep 2, 2005, at 9:46 AM, nvitamore at austin.rr.com wrote:
>
> From: Bret Kulakovich
>
>
>
>
>> Anyone know how the Waterford-3 nuclear plant made out? I understand
>> it is just up the river from New Orleans.
>>
>>
>
> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9118049/
> http://www.katc.com/Global/story.asp?S=3776111
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> mail2web - Check your email from the web at
> http://mail2web.com/ .
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
>
From jay.dugger at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 16:31:44 2005
From: jay.dugger at gmail.com (Jay Dugger)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 11:31:44 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <5366105b05090209315abc91f1@mail.gmail.com>
[snip]
> > IIRC the US and Israel were talking of deploying a similar system to
> > hit katyusha rockets fired at settlements. haven't heard much since
> > about it though.
> > Problem is that hardening munitions against laser energy is
> > relatively easy.
> > Maybe all hamas/Hezbollah would have to do is either polish the
> > rockets or
> > coat them in sawdust/glue. There is not an infinitely long time
> > window in which to down these things.
Sometimes you see weapons projects appear in the trade press or patent
applications, and then they go quiet for a time. This might mark the
development period. No sense advertising you've got a great idea if it
might not pan out.
> >
> > I suspect that the reason it's being deployed on aircraft is to zap
> > MANPADS
> > like Stinger that rely on delicate sensors so more low level flying
> > can be undertaken in places like Afghanistan.
>
Raytheon has a very interesting fixed HPM defense against MANPADS. See
AvWeek in the last few months (email me for a reference tomorrow) for
details. The idea uses a high power phased array that runs from the
local electric grid to sense and attack the missiles in-flight.
Raytheon developed, IIRC, from classified HPM projects and on their
own dime.
Now you just need some software upgrades for AEGIS-class radar sets.
LockMart will either license it if Uncle Sam insists, or hold out for
a big fat redevelopment contract.
--
Jay Dugger
http://www.redcross.org
Please donate if you can.
From eugen at leitl.org Fri Sep 2 16:56:49 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 18:56:49 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <5366105b05090209315abc91f1@mail.gmail.com>
References:
<20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<5366105b05090209315abc91f1@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20050902165649.GI2249@leitl.org>
On Fri, Sep 02, 2005 at 11:31:44AM -0500, Jay Dugger wrote:
> Raytheon has a very interesting fixed HPM defense against MANPADS. See
> AvWeek in the last few months (email me for a reference tomorrow) for
> details. The idea uses a high power phased array that runs from the
> local electric grid to sense and attack the missiles in-flight.
> Raytheon developed, IIRC, from classified HPM projects and on their
> own dime.
This sounds very interesting, for a space propulsion point of view.
Please give us any references you come across (assuming, you're not
talking about Vigilant Eagle
http://www.raytheon.com/products/stellent/groups/public/documents/content/cms04_010483.pdf
).
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From robgobblin at aol.com Fri Sep 2 17:30:06 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 07:30:06 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
game theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
Mike Lorrey wrote:
>Your chemistry book deals with converting sugar. You need to turn to
>the pages where it talks about the decay products of the starches,
>fiber, protiens, and other compounds that make up plant structure.
>
It deals with that too.
> Ever
>heard of swamp gas? It's methane.
>
People have been using refuse from sugar cane for fertilizer and feed
for centuries. If you process the whole plant instead of refined sugar,
you get high grade protein feed and fertilizer suitable for replanting
and/or pig-feed which is useful out here where Lau Lau rules. Ever hear
the expression "happy as a pig" - comes from the pigs eating the
still-slightly-alcohol-infused mash-waste from a distillation process.
Makes good tasting pigs too - good food comes from happy animals :)
> Comes from when man or nature dumps
>plant waste en masse. Now considered 12 times more greenhousey than
>CO2, and plants don't absorb it from the atmosphere like they do CO2.
>
>
Did your mother drop you on your head or something? Alcohol or
biodeisel procession of plant waste renders useful byproducts such as
fertilizer and energy, making it smart and wise to convert. Here in
Hawaii we in fact have a major problem with excess green-waste (stuff
grows so fast here you gotta cut your lawn twice a week just to keep it
below your ankles - I compost it and put it on my lawn but lots of
people don't). If those plants were then either composted properly
and/or processed using a nicely bred yeast we could turn our wate
management nightmare into an economic boon.
Robbie
From megao at sasktel.net Fri Sep 2 17:18:43 2005
From: megao at sasktel.net (Lifespan Pharma Inc.)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 12:18:43 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] peak oil debate - "happy as a pig in shit"
In-Reply-To: <43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
References: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
Message-ID: <43188973.4060905@sasktel.net>
Most of the world has more marginal curcumstances than Hawaii.
So for us we have to have a valuable extractive, bio-pharm or complex
bioactive to feed the money machine
to grow the biomass.
Marginal production will in time be enhanced by modification of plant
chemistry or growth cycles.
The cellulose based ethanol and fuel-cell use cycle is a handy way to
get the last drop of good from
biomass but for most of us it only works if the rest of the production
economics stand on their own
without considering the salvage value of the biomass.
With logistical energy costs escalated, the micro-scale distance
insensitive local production of low value
products combines well with exporting to distant uses small physical
quantities of high value materials.
For me here it is cannabis. the oilseed is middling value and justifies
long distance logistical cycles for
processing and use. The fibre must be bio-procesed and used in as short
distances as possible.
However bioextractives however produced which have an exponent or high
multiple value which
can build and carry the whole production process.
I have not read most of this string so the comments might be way
offbase... the pig in (shit) just caught my eye.
> People have been using refuse from sugar cane for fertilizer and feed
> for centuries. If you process the whole plant instead of refined
> sugar, you get high grade protein feed and fertilizer suitable for
> replanting and/or pig-feed which is useful out here where Lau Lau
> rules. Ever hear the expression "happy as a pig" - comes from the
> pigs eating the still-slightly-alcohol-infused mash-waste from a
> distillation process. Makes good tasting pigs too - good food comes
> from happy animals :)
>
>> Comes from when man or nature dumps
>> plant waste en masse. Now considered 12 times more greenhousey than
>> CO2, and plants don't absorb it from the atmosphere like they do CO2.
>>
>>
>
> Did your mother drop you on your head or something? Alcohol or
> biodeisel procession of plant waste renders useful byproducts such as
> fertilizer and energy, making it smart and wise to convert. Here in
> Hawaii we in fact have a major problem with excess green-waste (stuff
> grows so fast here you gotta cut your lawn twice a week just to keep
> it below your ankles - I compost it and put it on my lawn but lots of
> people don't). If those plants were then either composted properly
> and/or processed using a nicely bred yeast we could turn our wate
> management nightmare into an economic boon.
>
> Robbie
>
>
From robgobblin at aol.com Fri Sep 2 18:56:35 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 08:56:35 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] peak oil debate - "happy as a pig in shit"
In-Reply-To: <43188973.4060905@sasktel.net>
References: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
<43188973.4060905@sasktel.net>
Message-ID: <4318A063.2070303@aol.com>
Lifespan Pharma Inc. wrote:
>
> Most of the world has more marginal curcumstances than Hawaii.
No doubt, however in both the "corn belt" and in the more arid regions
there are good alternatives to sugar cane, namely subar beet (which
actually processes at a higher level - around 14%), corn, rice, potatoes
and barley - all of which are grown commercially now in abundance far
exceeding demand with huge potential for increased production. Were
demand to increase, existing fallow farmland could be utilized to
fulfill needs providing economic stimulus to a now government subsidized
industry as well as improved growing methods.
I'm -not- suggesting that the total oil utilization could be replaced by
alcohol/biodeisel products, only that as an interim solution until a
conversion to nuclear power and electric vehicles and mass
transportation systems could be affected.
Of course the great success story is Brazil which now includes 24%
sugar-produced ethanol in all of their fuel and their goal is to replace
all oil use with sugar-produced ethanol. And they're "low-tech"
compared to the kind of industrialized farming and processing we're
capable here in the good 'ol USofA. Albeit at the great expense of the
rainforests, but not, strangely, as great a loss as that lost to
hamburger production.
> So for us we have to have a valuable extractive, bio-pharm or complex
> bioactive to feed the money machine
> to grow the biomass.
There are very, very effective existing ways of producing sugar-sources
in almost every climate - and with a little R&D funded at say similar
levels as Oil production and processing R&D, I'm sure those could be
improved a thousand fold as people get better at it. Trends for sugar
production in Hawaii showed an increase of more than 15% per year per
acre in yeilded refined sugar up until the sugar crash - and that was
before they were seriously considering bio-engineering plants (like
sugar cane - say a hybrid between cane sugar and elephant bamboo or
something?)
> Marginal production will in time be enhanced by modification of plant
> chemistry or growth cycles.
Quite right!
>
> The cellulose based ethanol and fuel-cell use cycle is a handy way to
> get the last drop of good from
> biomass but for most of us it only works if the rest of the production
> economics stand on their own
> without considering the salvage value of the biomass.
The problem with cellulose-based ethanol is the need to pre-process the
material. For instance, unprocessed sugar-cane can be fermented using
existing yeasts with a yeild of approximately 11% of the total mass.
Whereas with processed sugar you get nearly 100% conversion. The
difference - the unprocessed cellulose. The problem is that yeast
doesn't naturally breakdown cellulose. You'd have to bio-engineer a
good bacteria to first breakdown the cellulose and the return sugar for
the yeast to make a really effective "self-perpetuating" cellulose fuel
system. It is, no doubt, a worthwhile endeavor!
>
> With logistical energy costs escalated, the micro-scale distance
> insensitive local production of low value
> products combines well with exporting to distant uses small physical
> quantities of high value materials.
Local production is key, for sure, but also very good for local economies.
>
> For me here it is cannabis. the oilseed is middling value and
> justifies long distance logistical cycles for
> processing and use. The fibre must be bio-procesed and used in as
> short distances as possible.
And more fun than alcohol as I recall. May both be legal to produce at
home soon!
>
> However bioextractives however produced which have an exponent or high
> multiple value which
> can build and carry the whole production process.
>
> I have not read most of this string so the comments might be way
> offbase... the pig in (shit) just caught my eye.
Ever actually see a pig stumbling around drunk? Very funny.
Robbie Lindauer
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 19:20:46 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 14:20:46 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References:
<49949997-4BC2-4934-8705-E6C92FD3B997@mac.com>
Message-ID: <01f001c5aff3$6bc89b70$0100a8c0@kevin>
> Are you saying that we do not have the means to lower pallets of
> goods from military helicopters exactly where we want them? We
> surely can fly in and we can boat most of the way in. Are you saying
> that marines can't manage to get into a disaster zone in America but
> can kick bitt anywhere and everywhere else in the world? I do not
> believe this. Besides. A lot of the people are in very packed and
> accessible places. Even they are not being remotely taken care of.
> What is the excuse for that?
An added point for you Samantha - whom I often disagree with -
If the TV crews could get there, so could the water and food trucks.
I could have loaded up a UHAUL truck at 8 am at Walmart after seeing the
conference center on the news and driven there by 8pm from Evansville, IN.
The only reason I didn't was because I was afraid I would interfere with a
large-scale organized response that never came and because I was certain
someone else would get there sooner.
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 19:28:31 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 14:28:31 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <20050902055618.37354.qmail@web60522.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <021201c5aff4$81580ec0$0100a8c0@kevin>
>
> Well I feel like its complaining about spilled milk,
> but it seems pretty obvious to me. You can't cut
> taxes, fund a $250 billion dollar ground war, AND be
> prepared for disaster relief. Not unless the Federal
> Government is somehow capable of magically creating
> money and manpower. As far as I know the federal
> government is drowning in a bathtub right now. It's
> called the Mississippi Basin. We get what we ask for.
> A little over half of us voted for these types of
> policies, so we got exactly what we deserved.
Are you kidding? Do syou seriously expect anyone to believe this is a
cash-flow problem? They take out loans for this kind of stuff and can borrow
damn near without limits.
> We have most of our logistics infrastructure in the
> middle east to support to our troops in Iraq. Even as
> it is, the logistic support to the troops on the
> ground is suboptimal in regards to certain things like
> body armor and hard topped vehicles for convoy
> support.
> I don't believe there are that many spare C130s to
> drop off any spare MREs to the people affected.
Kidding again? I see them flying around here all the time. INDIANA
>
> I hardly think an administration that can't foresee
> the need for an exit strategy when entering a war
> would have a contigency plan for natural disaster
> during the war.
>
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Fri Sep 2 19:25:40 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 12:25:40 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon
makes headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902103447.GT2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05 3:34 AM, "Eugen Leitl" wrote:
> On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 11:44:34PM -0700, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
>
>> State-of-the-art active radar systems do not detectably radiate at all,
>> another very, very slick piece of American military technology. It is how
>
> I don't see how this is supposed to be possible. Are you sure you're not
> meaning passive radar?
Nope, not passive radar, though on some levels it shares principles. I am
not an authority on the details of it, and the real details are classified.
The problem with passive radar is that you do not control the
characteristics or power of the radiator that is illuminating the target, so
one has to measure background and then do cross-correlation to find patterns
allowing for variation and uncertainty in the reference. This limits range
and resolution. This new type of active radar uses an ultra-wide band
radiator that mimics background RF in all respects, but since the computer
has perfect knowledge of the background 'noise', it can extract far more
detail at far more range than traditional passive radar.
A few advanced countries are using UWB radar for their weapon systems, which
is much more resistant to ECM than traditional radar and is harder to detect
at a distance due to the lower power in a given band. However, most of
these systems still generate a signature that an advanced ECM package could
detect. The special feature the US state-of-the-art UWB radar used in
stealthy systems is that the mimicry of background RF is supposedly nearly
perfect such that you can be looking directly at it at quite close range and
never see it unless you have the 'key' required to decrypt the background RF
one is looking at. In short, by the time the other guy has a prayer of
detecting the radiator, you will be in visual range (and the other guy will
have long since died). And of course, these same platforms can also be
keyed off of AWACs and other external radiators for some proper passive
radar.
I guess this would be an example of an almost perfectly efficient RF data
communication technology, though not used as such in the radar application.
As I said, I don't know all the technical details beyond what I've gleaned
from radar tech guys who've worked on a lot of military radar systems.
Supposedly this is an incremental evolutionary convergence of advanced RF
technology that the US has been perfecting for a long time. The radar
packages used in many more conventional combat aircraft platforms use UWB
radiators, but in a more traditional low probability of intercept
configuration that can be detected if the ED/ECM is very slick, due
primarily to the fact that it does not look like background RF noise.
J. Andrew Rogers
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Fri Sep 2 19:38:16 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 14:38:16 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Hyphenated Americans WAS: Getting AId to people in
need
References: <200509020426.j824QLw14232@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <021f01c5aff5$dda1bd60$0100a8c0@kevin>
>
> If an African-American is born in America, both her parents are
> born in America, all her grandparents, great grandparents, and
> their parents were born in America, at what point is it no longer
> legitimate that she call herself African American? When does she
> become, like me, a native American? I have an ancestor who was
> born in Pretoria South Africa. May I call myself African
> American? Will all my descendants, for all eternity, be able
> to call themselves African American?
This reminds me of a point I made for several years while a mortgage broker.
The 1003 loan application REQUIRES a portion on page 3 to be filled out
called HDMA for "government monitoring purposes"
It asks race and asks whether a person is Latino or non-latino. in a
separate section. The excuse is because you can be a latino and an asian or
a latino AND an african american. Of course, you are asked to check all that
apply in the second section that has boxes for caucasian, native american,
asian, african american, etc.
It has a box checked "I do not wish to furnish this information."
Of course, if you do not furnish it, the lender will not do the loan because
HUD requires that information to track and make sure we aren't declining
people or charging higher rates because of race or "ethnicity". No one ever
stopped to think that if you didn't ask, the underwriter couldn;t do that
because they would have no idea what race or ethnicity they were.
As a mortgage broker I was very upset at this. I refused to ask these
questions and I began checking all boxes for everyone - regardless of race
or ethnicity. The way I saw it, everyone descended from Africa and was
therefore African American. EVen the "native Americans" descended from
African stock, so we are all native americans - and asians, etc.
One day at a closing a borrower noticed this and asked about it. He was very
upset with me. After all, he was black and NOT caucasian!
From pharos at gmail.com Fri Sep 2 19:51:30 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:51:30 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
References: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, Robert Lindauer wrote
>
> People have been using refuse from sugar cane for fertilizer and feed
> for centuries. If you process the whole plant instead of refined sugar,
> you get high grade protein feed and fertilizer suitable for replanting
> and/or pig-feed which is useful out here where Lau Lau rules. Ever hear
> the expression "happy as a pig" - comes from the pigs eating the
> still-slightly-alcohol-infused mash-waste from a distillation process.
>
You just made that up! :)
Or, at least, if it is a true story in your locality it has nothing to
do with the common idiom "happy as a pig in mud", (in polite company),
or army-style "happy as a pig in sh*t".
Sometimes shortened to just "happy as a pig" in conversation to avoid
possible offence.
This saying just means being blissfully happy, like when a pig is in
it's ideal environment.
The French version is "?tre heureux comme un poisson dans l'eau".
Literally translated is "be happy as a fish in water".
BillK
From fortean1 at mindspring.com Fri Sep 2 22:03:49 2005
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 15:03:49 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] Re: Are dwarfs better for long
duration spaceflight?
Message-ID: <4318CC45.60500@mindspring.com>
On Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:29:55 -0700, "Terry W. Colvin"
fwded:
I wrote:
Designing for absolute minimum weight aerospace vehicles is fraught with
problems...
Granted, however we are discussing only *scaling* as a function of the
needs of the astronaut.
Two of my arguments about current space exploration projects are that
(a) their designers are obsessed with building to miniscule performance
margins and (b) they are monstrously over-engineered. You've only to
look at the problems with the shuttle orbiter's thermal tiles - they
only work as heat shields, not debris impact shelds, and it only takes a
tiny level of damage to severely compromise the entire vehicle. We
should be designing bigger, simpler, more rugged and more flexible, not
smaller, lighter and more fragile.
Designing a cramped, highly confining vehicle for an undersize crew will
never happen simply because of the sheer psychological problems of
cooping-up a crew in a baked-bean can for years at a time. Unless your
psychological profiles throw up hermit-types with agoraphobia and a
desire to return to the womb, then you're going to have extreme problems
from the moment you close the hatch.
Besides, bigger means that you can work with a number of economies of
scale - such as mass production and system duplication to make enough
redundancy to cope with discrete failures. It's all very well reducing
your air conditioning needs such that it can be provided by one CCU, but
if that fails and you've no fall-back then you're in serious trouble.
You're going to need prime systems and back-ups anyway. Larger devices
tend to be more efficient. There is a point that as you reduce the mass
of astronauts, a given number of duplicated support systems is not going
to get any smaller.
Indeed, why even stop at dwarves? Why not amputees? There's a lot of
redundant skeletal tissue in legs. We're starting to make serious
headway into tapping directly into the central nervous system. Why not
interface your robotic controls directly with the astronaut and do away
with limbs altogether? Then your space capsule would be the size of a
rubbish bin.
I'm afraid I'm not convinced.
We should be building bigger spaceships, with multiple cabins,
workshops, equipment bays and the like, so that if anything catastrophic
happens to one compartment it can be sealed off to protect the rest of
the ship. We want space ships not space canoes! Bigger is Better. Let's
go for Saturn Vs for the twenty-first century, not bottle rockets!
Another big no-no is sending a human crew all that way and not letting
them land. You might as well just send robots. The only advantage of
putting a human crew into orbit around Mars to supervise machines on the
ground is that it reduces the radio-transmission lag. And Mars rovers
have already demonstrated that they can be made smart enough to deal
autonomously with exploring without human hands on the controls. Again,
bigger spacecraft could support bigger, smarter, more versatile machines
with greated power and longer endurance, but what would you rather see
on the flanks of Mons Olympus, another robot or a human in a space suit?
Robin Hill (thinking of founding the Campaign for Real Space
Exploration), STEAMY BESS, Brough, East Yorkshire.
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--
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Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
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From robgobblin at aol.com Fri Sep 2 22:32:00 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 12:32:00 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a
game theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050902133742.28178.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com> <43188C1E.7050703@aol.com>
Message-ID: <4318D2E0.20609@aol.com>
Okay, but until you've seen pigs wallowing in fresh warm mash, you
haven't lived!
BillK wrote:
>On 9/2/05, Robert Lindauer wrote
>
>
>>People have been using refuse from sugar cane for fertilizer and feed
>>for centuries. If you process the whole plant instead of refined sugar,
>>you get high grade protein feed and fertilizer suitable for replanting
>>and/or pig-feed which is useful out here where Lau Lau rules. Ever hear
>>the expression "happy as a pig" - comes from the pigs eating the
>>still-slightly-alcohol-infused mash-waste from a distillation process.
>>
>>
>>
>
>You just made that up! :)
>Or, at least, if it is a true story in your locality it has nothing to
>do with the common idiom "happy as a pig in mud", (in polite company),
>or army-style "happy as a pig in sh*t".
>Sometimes shortened to just "happy as a pig" in conversation to avoid
>possible offence.
>
>This saying just means being blissfully happy, like when a pig is in
>it's ideal environment.
>
>The French version is "?tre heureux comme un poisson dans l'eau".
>Literally translated is "be happy as a fish in water".
>
>BillK
>_______________________________________________
>extropy-chat mailing list
>extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
>
>
From extropy at unreasonable.com Fri Sep 2 22:50:45 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:50:45 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <4318CC45.60500@mindspring.com>
References: <4318CC45.60500@mindspring.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902183320.054bbdd8@unreasonable.com>
Terry W. Colvin wrote:
>Besides, bigger means that you can work with a number of economies
>of scale - such as mass production and system duplication to make
>enough redundancy to cope with discrete failures.
Reminds me of a conversation I had a few years ago with a
distinguished astronomer (and apparent idiot) who had worked on some
of the robotic space missions.
I was talking about how useful it would be to, instead of having one
or maybe two crafts that observe some solar system phenomena, set up
an assembly line in near-Earth space. Build thousands of identical
crafts. Perhaps finishing one a day, shoving it out into a new direction.
First, he dismissed the value of having data from different spots in
the solar system. I think he's wrong, but at least the point seems debatable.
Then came his punchline, which demonstrated to me that Clarke's Laws
are still in effect.
He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends, he
really did mean *never*.
-- David Lubkin.
From dgc at cox.net Fri Sep 2 22:48:06 2005
From: dgc at cox.net (Dan Clemmensen)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 18:48:06 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org>
References:
<20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
I cannot find the exact quote or attribution. I remember the quote as:
"Any city is three days away from barbarism."
Does anyone know the actual quote?
From riel at surriel.com Fri Sep 2 23:30:55 2005
From: riel at surriel.com (Rik van Riel)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 19:30:55 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050901222119.A1DC057EF5@finney.org>
References: <20050901222119.A1DC057EF5@finney.org>
Message-ID:
On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Hal Finney wrote:
> If you were an insider and knew that oil was going to be worth that much
> in a few years, why would you be pumping for all you were worth and
> selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't make sense.
If you were a 60 year old CEO, would you try to maximise
profits today and keep shareholders happy, or would you
gamble that prices will be higher 15 years in the future
and hope you can string the shareholders along for that
time ?
--
"Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you are,
by definition, not smart enough to debug it." - Brian W. Kernighan
From riel at surriel.com Fri Sep 2 23:40:15 2005
From: riel at surriel.com (Rik van Riel)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 19:40:15 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050901172312.84734.qmail@web30701.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Dirk Bruere wrote:
> On 9/1/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> >
> > http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technovel_darpa_lasers_050830.html
>
> Better hope the enemy doesn't catch on to wrapping their mortar rounds
> etc in carbon fibre mat.
Or making the surface have corner cubes. With small
enough ones it may even have beneficial aerodynamic
properties.
--
"Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you are,
by definition, not smart enough to debug it." - Brian W. Kernighan
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 00:46:28 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 17:46:28 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
Message-ID: <20050903004628.65269.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
I thought it was "any culture is two meals from revolution".
--- Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> I cannot find the exact quote or attribution. I remember the quote
> as:
> "Any city is three days away from barbarism."
> Does anyone know the actual quote?
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From thespike at satx.rr.com Sat Sep 3 02:19:15 2005
From: thespike at satx.rr.com (Damien Broderick)
Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 21:19:15 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <20050903004628.65269.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
<20050903004628.65269.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.1.2.0.20050902211732.01ed3e60@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
At 05:46 PM 9/2/2005 -0700, Mike wrote:
>I thought it was "any culture is two meals from revolution".
No, no, that's "any bicycle is two wheels from revolution".
Damien Broderick
From outlawpoet at gmail.com Sat Sep 3 02:31:24 2005
From: outlawpoet at gmail.com (justin corwin)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 19:31:24 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.1.2.0.20050902211732.01ed3e60@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
References: <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
<20050903004628.65269.qmail@web30711.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<6.2.1.2.0.20050902211732.01ed3e60@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
Message-ID: <3ad827f3050902193190705c7@mail.gmail.com>
On 9/2/05, Damien Broderick wrote:
> At 05:46 PM 9/2/2005 -0700, Mike wrote:
>
> >I thought it was "any culture is two meals from revolution".
>
> No, no, that's "any bicycle is two wheels from revolution".
I think you're remembering an old adage electric motor makers have, "a
revolution at the axle, is worth two in the brush(es)"
--
Justin Corwin
outlawpoet at hell.com
http://outlawpoet.blogspot.com
http://www.adaptiveai.com
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 03:00:00 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:00:00 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from
agametheorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050902112155.GY2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <200509030300.j83302w31803@tick.javien.com>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
...
> >
> > User, I could see ethanol as a transition phase, where we add
>
> Why ethanol, on earth? Why not synmethanol? Or biodiesel, if
> you absolutely have to curry favors to big dirty agribusiness?...
Synmethanol and biodiesel are fine, those two guys
can play too. I mentioned ethanol because it is easy
to make and burn in current vehicles. Biodiesel will
be useful for existing Diesel engines. In both cases,
I am looking toward the current infrastructure as
much as possible during the long transition away from
fossil fuels.
> Why not simply lighter, more efficient vehicles (my car averages
> about 6.2 l/100 km, which is probably half or less of the typical
> U.S. car, not even SUV)?...
Eventually yes. Think about the transition phase.
>
> Alcohols are too corrosive for the current infrastructure, unless
> used just as additives -- but why bother with footnotes?
We will need them. I suspect the answer will come from many directions.
>
> What is the half life of a modern car? A few years, typically.
> It would make more sense to just stick to new vehicles...
Good question. I would think it is about 8 years. We
will have them for a long time. Cars as we know them
will still be with us when you and I take the old nitrogen
bath Gene. {8-| {8-]
>
> > An ethanol-gasoline mix could carry part of the load
> > while we gear up nuclear and coal fired power plants as well
>
> Nuke? Coal? Are you crazy?
No, we will need those guys too. I suspect when the
proles are faced with the choice of either a nuke
plant in the back yard, a coal plant in the back yard
or no power, we will choose the nuke plant in loud
unison.
>
> ... Biodiesel would be
> a far smaller mistake, if you insist to make any...
I'm suggesting that we will have biodiesel, ethanol,
synmethanol, full plug-in EVs, turbodiesel series
hybrids, parallel hybrids, and good old fashioned
gas-only V8 Detroits sharing the roads for the next
five decades.
...
>
> Or you could just use a price ratchet via taxes, allowing
> a monotonous slow increase in prices. We've been at
> >6.5 US$/gallon for a long time. You'll get used to it, too...
Here is where I disagree. The U.S. and state governments
do not *really* have the leeway to tax motor fuels this
high. If they try, their political opponents can win
an election merely by promising to reduce fuel taxes, or
any taxes that mess with our cars. We saw in Taxifornia
a governor recalled a year into his second term, not
because he was merely corrupt (we would tolerate corrupt)
but rather because he *legitimately* raised the license
fees for cars. The license fees on cars was a flat tax.
A flat tax hits the portemonnaie of the poor man much
harder than it does the rich.
A fuel tax is also a flat tax in a sense, but more than
that: a fuel tax is one that everyone pays over and over
and over, since everything is made of fuel: the stuff at
the grocery store, well, the stuff at every store. A fuel
tax is a highly inflationary tax, and it is very
destructive to any economy. Americans will not tolerate
fuel taxes! We will skip the bit about hurling the tea
into Boston Harbor, go straight to hurling the politicians
into the Patomac River. We would vote for anyone who
promises to end the fuel tax, and I myself would be at
the front of the line with the blue finger.
I would suggest an alternative: during the transition from
fossil fuels we remove taxes and restrictions on any private
manufacturing of alcohol, biodiesel or anything that can be
used as a motor fuel. With no tax, we could produce oil
equivalents at about four bucks a gallon, perhaps less. We would
temporarily relax restrictions on water usage, such as pumping
out of rivers, to establish corn, potatoes and rice on land
that is currently not economical to farm. It will cost us
a few fish, but it beats the alternatives.
spike
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 03:02:14 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:02:14 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902183320.054bbdd8@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <200509030302.j8332Gw32018@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of David Lubkin
...
>
> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
> would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends, he
> really did mean *never*.
>
>
> -- David Lubkin.
Surely your friend forgot about the Iridium constellation. We
build 73 of those.
spike
From fauxever at sprynet.com Sat Sep 3 03:16:36 2005
From: fauxever at sprynet.com (Olga Bourlin)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:16:36 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
Message-ID: <004401c5b035$e4fb0ae0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Who would have thought? WHO would have thought? ...
Halliburton gets Katrina contract, hires former FEMA director
1 Sept. 2005
WASHINGTON, Sept. 1 (HalliburtonWatch.org) -- The US Navy asked Halliburton to repair naval facilities damaged by Hurricane Katrina, the Houston Chronicle reported today. The work was assigned to Halliburton's KBR subsidiary under the Navy's $500 million CONCAP contract awarded to KBR in 2001 and renewed in 2004. The repairs will take place in Louisiana and Mississippi.
KBR has not been asked to repair the levees destroyed in New Orleans which became the primary cause of most of the damage.
Since 1989, governments worldwide have awarded $3 billion in contracts to KBR's Government and Infrastructure Division to clean up damage caused by natural and man-made disasters.
Earlier this year, the Navy awarded $350 million in contracts to KBR and three other companies to repair naval facilities in northwest Florida damaged by Hurricane Ivan, which struck in September 2004. The ongoing repair work involves aircraft support facilities, medium industrial buildings, marine construction, mechanical and electrical improvements, civil construction, and family housing renovation.
In March, the former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is tasked with responding to hurricane disasters, became a lobbyist for KBR. Joe Allbaugh was director of FEMA during the first two years of the Bush administration.
Today, FEMA is widely criticized for its slow response to the victims of Hurricane Katrina.
Allbaugh managed Bush's campaign for Texas governor in 1994, served as Gov. Bush's chief of staff and was the national campaign manager for the Bush campaign in 2000. Along with Karen Hughes and Karl Rove, Allbaugh was one of Bush's closest advisers.
"This is a perfect example of someone cashing in on a cozy political relationship," said Scott Amey, general counsel at the Project on Government Oversight, a Washington watchdog group. "Allbaugh's former placement as a senior government official and his new lobbying position with KBR strengthens the company's already tight ties to the administration, and I hope that contractor accountability is not lost as a result."
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From fauxever at sprynet.com Sat Sep 3 03:18:48 2005
From: fauxever at sprynet.com (Olga Bourlin)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:18:48 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Who Failed Storm Victims?
Message-ID: <005001c5b036$33a103c0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Politicians.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050901/D8CBNMA88.html
Olga
From scerir at libero.it Sat Sep 3 06:10:44 2005
From: scerir at libero.it (scerir)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 08:10:44 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
References: <20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org>
<4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
Message-ID: <002601c5b04e$385aa750$5ebf1b97@administxl09yj>
> Does anyone know the actual quote?
There is a real quotation (courtesy of CNN,
but taken from another list).
"Don't try it!
Sleeping inside with:
Big dog
Ugly woman
Two shotguns
Claw hammer."
[On a New Orleans antique shop]
From robgobblin at aol.com Sat Sep 3 06:30:48 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 20:30:48 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from
agametheorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <200509030300.j83302w31803@tick.javien.com>
References: <200509030300.j83302w31803@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID:
On Sep 2, 2005, at 5:00 PM, spike wrote:
> With no tax, we could produce oil
> equivalents at about four bucks a gallon, perhaps less. We would
> temporarily relax restrictions on water usage, such as pumping
> out of rivers, to establish corn, potatoes and rice on land
> that is currently not economical to farm. It will cost us
> a few fish, but it beats the alternatives.
Much less than $4.00/gallon to produce alcohol even using market-rate
refined sugar, btw.
Ethanol currently retails around 2.12/gallon in most of the midwest
states and if you're in an e85 car in those states right now, you're
lovin' life finally getting to say "I told you so" to all those
gas-burners.
But I agree with you, taxation -in general- is regressive especially
taxation of fuel and income. And since firearms and tobacco are the
only other things the federal revenuers really have their chubby little
fingers in, let's just send them all home!
Robbie
From hal at finney.org Sat Sep 3 05:58:25 2005
From: hal at finney.org (Hal Finney)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2005 22:58:25 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
Message-ID: <20050903055825.909C357EF7@finney.org>
A terrific source for informed analysis of the economic questions about
Peak Oil comes from http://www.econbrowser.org , the weblog of James
D. Hamilton, Professor of Economics at UC San Diego. This blog, which
started just this past June, is a great resource for insight on all kinds
of economic topics, but JDH has taken a particular interest in Peak Oil
and has shed very helpful light from an economic perspective.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/energy/index.html provides all of
his energy-related postings, but in particular I would point to the
three part series:
How to talk to an economist about peak oil
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/07/how_to_talk_to.html
Further discussion about economists and peak oil
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/07/further_discuss.html
Discussions with economists about peak oil: Chapter 3
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/07/discussions_wit.html
These expand on the ideas I listed earlier about what we would expect
to see if insiders really believed that Peak Oil were coming in the next
few years, and how that doesn't match up with reality.
You will also find many more good articles elsewhere on his blog,
including discussions of the impact of Katrina on the oil markets and
on the economy. I am finding Econbrowser to be an invaluable resource
for improving my understanding of what is going on in the world.
Another interesting economics blog, not as good as Econbrowser
but still worth reading occasionally, is the Freakonomics blog at
http://www.freakonomics.com/blog.php by the authors of the book.
Steven Levitt is the award winning economist who writes most of the
articles and he has had quite a few recently about oil markets in general
and Peak Oil in particular.
Hal Finney
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 07:21:53 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 00:21:53 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <021201c5aff4$81580ec0$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <20050903072153.45552.qmail@web60523.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
> Are you kidding? Do syou seriously expect anyone to
> believe this is a
> cash-flow problem? They take out loans for this kind
> of stuff and can borrow
> damn near without limits.
I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I was
merely hypothesizing why the federal government would
sit idly by and watch one of its oldest and most
historic cities become a third-world-country over
night and then let it sit that way for days before
doing anything. My assumption was that it was a cash
flow problem as even loans take time to process but if
you are right and cash flow/logistic problems are not
to blame, then I was being overly charitable to the
government.
If the snafu was not logistical, then it was
intentional. If the federal govern COULDN'T provide
immediate disaster relief, that would be one thing.
But if it COULD then apparently, it was just reluctant
to do so and that opens a whole new can of worms.
Because then one is left with the question of why the
federal government didn't want to? Was it because the
victims were blacks? Was it because New Orleans voted
democrat last time around? Or maybe all the FEMA guys
were waiting for Bush to get back from vacation so
that he could tell them what to do? If it was Miami,
Dubya would have had check in Jeb's hand before the
hurricane hit.
I don't think it's a state jurisdiction issue either
as the federal government has made it crystal clear to
California that it will come in and step all over
state's jurisdiction when it WANTS to.
Lets face it. In this administration, if you live in a
blue state (or a blue county in a red state) you might
was well be in Somalia.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Sat Sep 3 07:43:37 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 00:43:37 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To: <004401c5b035$e4fb0ae0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05 8:16 PM, "Olga Bourlin" wrote:
> Who would have thought? WHO would have thought? ...
Well, duh. Who else could do it? This the kind of thing they *specialize*
in. No matter what kind of contract Halliburton gets, it MUST be a sinister
conspiracy of some type. It is written into their corporate charter doncha
know.
Recycle that aluminum foil please, when you are done wearing it on your
head. Proof positive that knee-jerk tribalism and their kook fringe friends
are alive and well...
J. Andrew Rogers
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 07:58:51 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 00:58:51 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050903075851.18738.qmail@web60511.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "J. Andrew Rogers"
wrote:
> On 9/2/05 8:16 PM, "Olga Bourlin"
> wrote:
> > Who would have thought? WHO would have thought?
> ...
>
>
> Well, duh. Who else could do it? This the kind of
> thing they *specialize*
> in. No matter what kind of contract Halliburton
> gets, it MUST be a sinister
> conspiracy of some type. It is written into their
> corporate charter doncha
> know.
I think the lady's point is that Halliburton should
not be (and probably isn't when I think about it) the
ONLY company that can do it. There is this thing
called monopoly that gums up the gears of a freemarket
economy and I don't need my tin-foil hat to figure out
that monopoly needs a collusion between the government
and A COMPANY in order to prosper in a free market. I
say put these kind of contracts up on BID. There are
many construction contractors that are perfectly
capable of building whatever you want them to build
especially if they are not in a war-zone. What's next,
is Halliburton gonna muscle in on the home-improvement
market?
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From andrew at ceruleansystems.com Sat Sep 3 08:37:41 2005
From: andrew at ceruleansystems.com (J. Andrew Rogers)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 01:37:41 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To: <20050903075851.18738.qmail@web60511.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/3/05 12:58 AM, "The Avantguardian" wrote:
>
> I think the lady's point is that Halliburton should
> not be (and probably isn't when I think about it) the
> ONLY company that can do it.
Then please, start your own company that can compete with them. There are
several large companies that routinely get the business of the government
because they have no realistic competitors in a number of sectors of
expertise for large scale projects. Halliburton is one of those companies.
Lockheed-Martin is another. You and I don't have to like it, that is just
the way it is. And when they do have competitors, it is usually some other
"evil" company that is synonymous with conspiracy theories anyway.
As I've pointed out in the past, it is not just the US government that uses
Halliburton. A good number of the world's governments have hired
Halliburton at one time or another to do what they do. They have
competitors, but none that have the ability to handle really large projects
to the extent Halliburton can.
I really don't give a crap if Halliburton gets another contract, nor do I
think they are a particularly excellent company. I just think it is
ludicrous that everyone questions the selection of Halliburton for contracts
when there are no other viable competitors in the field more often than not.
Don't whine about it, offer a genuinely viable alternative. If you think
you can do better, there is a mountain of gold in them thar hills to be had.
Armchair quarterbacking and all that.
J. Andrew Rogers
From pharos at gmail.com Sat Sep 3 08:41:26 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 09:41:26 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To: <20050903075851.18738.qmail@web60511.mail.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050903075851.18738.qmail@web60511.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/3/05, The Avantguardian wrote:
> I think the lady's point is that Halliburton should
> not be (and probably isn't when I think about it) the
> ONLY company that can do it. There is this thing
> called monopoly that gums up the gears of a freemarket
> economy and I don't need my tin-foil hat to figure out
> that monopoly needs a collusion between the government
> and A COMPANY in order to prosper in a free market. I
> say put these kind of contracts up on BID. There are
> many construction contractors that are perfectly
> capable of building whatever you want them to build
> especially if they are not in a war-zone. What's next,
> is Halliburton gonna muscle in on the home-improvement
> market?
>
Heh! :) I guess you haven't dealt with government bureaucrats much.
Here in UK (and I doubt if the US is much different) if the gov put a
contract out for public tender you are talking about at least six
months before a contract is issued. They have to prepare a
requirements document, send it out, wait a few months to give the
companies time to prepare proposals, then these have to be reviewed by
committees to get down to a short list. Then the shortlist get into
negotiations with the bureaucrats and eventually a contract will be
issued.
I think the US Navy might be in a bit of a hurry to get their stuff
working again. :)
The only way to do this is to cut the gov out of the process.
The US Navy probably know Haliburton is not the cheapest quote, but
they expect results, *fast*.
BillK
From jay.dugger at gmail.com Sat Sep 3 10:30:39 2005
From: jay.dugger at gmail.com (Jay Dugger)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 05:30:39 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902165649.GI2249@leitl.org>
References:
<20050902022810.76869.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<5366105b05090209315abc91f1@mail.gmail.com>
<20050902165649.GI2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5366105b0509030330bb31ae3@mail.gmail.com>
[snip]
> This sounds very interesting, for a space propulsion point of view.
> Please give us any references you come across (assuming, you're not
> talking about Vigilant Eagle
>
> http://www.raytheon.com/products/stellent/groups/public/documents/content/cms04_010483.pdf
>
That's the one. I don't know if this might have spin-on to beamed
power for powersats, elevator climbers, or high-energy laser lift. The
AvWeek article has a few more details, but the press release sums it
up pretty nicely.
--
Jay Dugger
http://www.redcross.org
Please donate if you can.
From eugen at leitl.org Sat Sep 3 11:38:12 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 13:38:12 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902183320.054bbdd8@unreasonable.com>
References: <4318CC45.60500@mindspring.com>
<6.2.3.4.2.20050902183320.054bbdd8@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <20050903113811.GG2249@leitl.org>
On Fri, Sep 02, 2005 at 06:50:45PM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:
> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
> would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends, he
> really did mean *never*.
He was most likely already wrong at the time he spoke:
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20010601eo1.html
http://www.afrlhorizons.com/Briefs/0009/VS0014.html
http://www.wtec.org/loyola/ar93_94/scst.htm
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 13:35:46 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 06:35:46 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050903133546.98134.qmail@web60513.mail.yahoo.com>
--- "J. Andrew Rogers"
wrote:
>
> I really don't give a crap if Halliburton gets
> another contract, nor do I
> think they are a particularly excellent company. I
> just think it is
> ludicrous that everyone questions the selection of
> Halliburton for contracts
> when there are no other viable competitors in the
> field more often than not.
> Don't whine about it, offer a genuinely viable
> alternative. If you think
> you can do better, there is a mountain of gold in
> them thar hills to be had.
> Armchair quarterbacking and all that.
Well I consider myself less like an armchair
quarterback and more like a fan that bought a ticket
to see a football game played and instead had
Halliburton win because the other team forfeited by
not showing up. But if I were to pick up your gauntlet
and take the field myself, I think I would have to try
to take on Lockheed-Martin because jet fighters are so
much cooler than plumbing and electrical. ;)
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 14:04:45 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 07:04:45 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <20050903140445.92508.qmail@web60519.mail.yahoo.com>
--- Rik van Riel wrote:
> On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Hal Finney wrote:
>
> > If you were an insider and knew that oil was going
> to be worth that much
> > in a few years, why would you be pumping for all
> you were worth and
> > selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't
> make sense.
>
> If you were a 60 year old CEO, would you try to
> maximise
> profits today and keep shareholders happy, or would
> you
> gamble that prices will be higher 15 years in the
> future
> and hope you can string the shareholders along for
> that
> time ?
Precisely. From your 60 yr old CEO's point of view, it
would be most advantageous to keep your investors
thinking that the oil was plentiful and that
everything was going smoothly. Even if you were in
reality pumping the dregs of your wells. After all, if
you are waiting to see if you die before you go out of
business, you might as well make every buck you can
while you can.
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 14:40:43 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 07:40:43 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <3ad827f3050902193190705c7@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20050903144043.51250.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- justin corwin wrote:
> On 9/2/05, Damien Broderick wrote:
> > At 05:46 PM 9/2/2005 -0700, Mike wrote:
> >
> > >I thought it was "any culture is two meals from revolution".
> >
> > No, no, that's "any bicycle is two wheels from revolution".
>
> I think you're remembering an old adage electric motor makers have,
> "a revolution at the axle, is worth two in the brush(es)"
No, I think you are remembering the Bush family motto: "A revolution in
the Axis is worth two more Bushes."
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 15:10:16 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 08:10:16 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <200509030302.j8332Gw32018@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050903151016.57935.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- spike wrote:
> > bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of David Lubkin
> ...
> >
> > He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
> > would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends,
> > he really did mean *never*.
>
> Surely your friend forgot about the Iridium constellation. We
> build 73 of those.
And someone like Davids friend would point out that Iridium was a
'failure' (though ignoring that it is still functioning and turning a
profit for the corporation that bought the assets of the original
company (and the only way for people to communicate in the mess of New
Orleans, currently)).
As he is an astronomer, it is understandable that he only pays
attention to orbiting observatories. You only need one of each type in
orbit at a time of these sorts, he is right there, provided each can
provide sufficient observation time to each of the worlds astronomers
that needs it. Thing is, the more observatories there are, the more
market there is for astronomers...
Of course, he is likely not aware of the plans for the Darwin Space
Interferometer Terrestrial Planet Finding Project, which would consist
of 6 separate spacecraft capable of resolving terrestrial planets,
within their primary's habitable zomes, within 25 parsecs from Earth.
The Mark 2 version of Darwin, which would be used to actually observe
terrestrial planetary surfaces and detect trace amounts of methane,
would have a similar constellation, though moving up from a 1.5 meter
mirror size to 7.5 meter mirror size for each spacecraft.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 15:17:46 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 08:17:46 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To: <004401c5b035$e4fb0ae0$6600a8c0@brainiac>
Message-ID: <20050903151746.33179.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
What? That KBR, a private company, is more trusted to repair hurricane
damaged facilities than FEMA? That it is good at its job? If you want
to make a believable case of any sort of malfeasance, Olga, you are
going to have to dive into KBR's contract record and show that KBR has
gotten more contracts since 2000 than before it.
And if it is, is there anything wrong with KBR cashing in on its former
relationship to a current vice president than isn't equally wrong for a
former first lady to cash in on her relationship to a former president
in order to win a seat in the US Senate? For a drunk philandering
killer to cash in on the legacy of his older brothers in the white
house to get a seat in the Senate?
--- Olga Bourlin wrote:
> Who would have thought? WHO would have thought? ...
> Halliburton gets Katrina contract, hires former FEMA director
> 1 Sept. 2005
> WASHINGTON, Sept. 1 (HalliburtonWatch.org) -- The US Navy asked
> Halliburton to repair naval facilities damaged by Hurricane Katrina,
> the Houston Chronicle reported today. The work was assigned to
> Halliburton's KBR subsidiary under the Navy's $500 million CONCAP
> contract awarded to KBR in 2001 and renewed in 2004. The repairs will
> take place in Louisiana and Mississippi.
>
> KBR has not been asked to repair the levees destroyed in New
> Orleans which became the primary cause of most of the damage.
>
> Since 1989, governments worldwide have awarded $3 billion in
> contracts to KBR's Government and Infrastructure Division to clean up
> damage caused by natural and man-made disasters.
>
> Earlier this year, the Navy awarded $350 million in contracts to
> KBR and three other companies to repair naval facilities in northwest
> Florida damaged by Hurricane Ivan, which struck in September 2004.
> The ongoing repair work involves aircraft support facilities, medium
> industrial buildings, marine construction, mechanical and electrical
> improvements, civil construction, and family housing renovation.
>
> In March, the former director of the Federal Emergency Management
> Agency (FEMA), which is tasked with responding to hurricane
> disasters, became a lobbyist for KBR. Joe Allbaugh was director of
> FEMA during the first two years of the Bush administration.
>
> Today, FEMA is widely criticized for its slow response to the
> victims of Hurricane Katrina.
>
> Allbaugh managed Bush's campaign for Texas governor in 1994, served
> as Gov. Bush's chief of staff and was the national campaign manager
> for the Bush campaign in 2000. Along with Karen Hughes and Karl Rove,
> Allbaugh was one of Bush's closest advisers.
>
> "This is a perfect example of someone cashing in on a cozy
> political relationship," said Scott Amey, general counsel at the
> Project on Government Oversight, a Washington watchdog group.
> "Allbaugh's former placement as a senior government official and his
> new lobbying position with KBR strengthens the company's already
> tight ties to the administration, and I hope that contractor
> accountability is not lost as a result."
> > _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Sat Sep 3 15:47:45 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 10:47:45 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
References: <20050903072153.45552.qmail@web60523.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <003c01c5b09e$d5089d00$0100a8c0@kevin>
You are forgetting the most probable reason this was bumbled. Incompetence.
I am starting to get the idea that everyone thought someone else was doing
things while no one was aware of just how big ght problem was. The whole
mess has been an information nightmare. The FEME people apaprently weren't
watching TV. No one thought "Hey, lets grope some troops on the ground and
assess the situation" Or "Let's follow the TV news crews - they always know
where to go". I am willing to bet that the communications infrastructure of
the news companies is superior to anything FEMA has which is why everyone
except FEMA seemed to know what was going on. Had they just watched the news
they could have tackled that issue.
----- Original Message -----
From: "The Avantguardian"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 2:21 AM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
>
>
> --- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
>
> > Are you kidding? Do syou seriously expect anyone to
> > believe this is a
> > cash-flow problem? They take out loans for this kind
> > of stuff and can borrow
> > damn near without limits.
>
> I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I was
> merely hypothesizing why the federal government would
> sit idly by and watch one of its oldest and most
> historic cities become a third-world-country over
> night and then let it sit that way for days before
> doing anything. My assumption was that it was a cash
> flow problem as even loans take time to process but if
> you are right and cash flow/logistic problems are not
> to blame, then I was being overly charitable to the
> government.
>
> If the snafu was not logistical, then it was
> intentional. If the federal govern COULDN'T provide
> immediate disaster relief, that would be one thing.
> But if it COULD then apparently, it was just reluctant
> to do so and that opens a whole new can of worms.
> Because then one is left with the question of why the
> federal government didn't want to? Was it because the
> victims were blacks? Was it because New Orleans voted
> democrat last time around? Or maybe all the FEMA guys
> were waiting for Bush to get back from vacation so
> that he could tell them what to do? If it was Miami,
> Dubya would have had check in Jeb's hand before the
> hurricane hit.
>
> I don't think it's a state jurisdiction issue either
> as the federal government has made it crystal clear to
> California that it will come in and step all over
> state's jurisdiction when it WANTS to.
>
> Lets face it. In this administration, if you live in a
> blue state (or a blue county in a red state) you might
> was well be in Somalia.
>
>
> The Avantguardian
> is
> Stuart LaForge
> alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
>
> "The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't
attempted to contact us."
> -Bill Watterson
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 15:44:05 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 08:44:05 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To:
Message-ID: <200509031544.j83FiBw04646@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of J. Andrew Rogers
> ... Halliburton is one of those companies.
> Lockheed-Martin is another. You and I don't have to like it...
I like it. {8-]
> ... And when they do have competitors, it is usually some other
> "evil" company that is synonymous with conspiracy theories anyway...
...
> J. Andrew Rogers
...
Such as Booeing. And it isn't just a theory, they really was
a conspiracy. They got caught this time. See number two on this
list:
http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2003/03december/dec03corp1.html
The odd part is that thru it all, Booeing stock soared, while
the main competitor, Lockheeed Martin, is the same price now
that it was five years ago. {8-[ Don't seem right.
Halliburton seems like a legitimate outfit. I haven't seen
anything by them that seems too out of line. Being big
doesn't mean evil necessarily. I don't see who the heck
else is set up to do the kinds of jobs they do.
spike
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Sat Sep 3 15:52:29 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 10:52:29 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
References: <20050903151746.33179.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <004201c5b09f$7dd38530$0100a8c0@kevin>
Is there a company out there that is more capable and better at handling the
job and is willing to do it for less? Is this information readily available?
No doubt they should have spent a little more time shopping for various
companies and accepting bids on such projects . That way the work could get
started several months after the disasters happen.
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 16:23:12 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 09:23:12 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <20050903072153.45552.qmail@web60523.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050903162312.1099.qmail@web30706.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- The Avantguardian wrote:
>
>
> --- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
>
> > Are you kidding? Do syou seriously expect anyone to
> > believe this is a
> > cash-flow problem? They take out loans for this kind
> > of stuff and can borrow
> > damn near without limits.
>
> I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I was
> merely hypothesizing why the federal government would
> sit idly by and watch one of its oldest and most
> historic cities become a third-world-country over
> night and then let it sit that way for days before
> doing anything.
Your improper assumption was that New Orleans wasn't a third world
country before this disaster. I don't know how many times I've heard
that people like to go there specifically because it has third world
country characteristics without having to leave the US.
> My assumption was that it was a cash
> flow problem as even loans take time to process but if
> you are right and cash flow/logistic problems are not
> to blame, then I was being overly charitable to the
> government.
>
> If the snafu was not logistical, then it was
> intentional. If the federal govern COULDN'T provide
> immediate disaster relief, that would be one thing.
> But if it COULD then apparently, it was just reluctant
> to do so and that opens a whole new can of worms.
Generally speaking the Federal Government is not the rescuer of first
resort with natural disasters on US soil, the states are. If anybody
has been laying down on the job, it is the state governments and people
of LA and MS who seem to have surrendered and can only point fingers at
this point. There are a lot more people in both states than those
living near the coast, and looking at the unemployment rates in both
states, there are a lot of people down there sitting around with
nothing to do but help with rescue efforts.
> Because then one is left with the question of why the
> federal government didn't want to? Was it because the
> victims were blacks? Was it because New Orleans voted
> democrat last time around? Or maybe all the FEMA guys
> were waiting for Bush to get back from vacation so
> that he could tell them what to do? If it was Miami,
> Dubya would have had check in Jeb's hand before the
> hurricane hit.
I will note that, from my recollections of media appearances, Jeb has
always been well prepared ahead of time for hurricanes headed toward
his state. I cannot say the same for the leadership of LA and MS.
>
> I don't think it's a state jurisdiction issue either
> as the federal government has made it crystal clear to
> California that it will come in and step all over
> state's jurisdiction when it WANTS to.
>
> Lets face it. In this administration, if you live in a
> blue state (or a blue county in a red state) you might
> was well be in Somalia.
The problem with this statement is that both Louisiana and Mississippi
were red states. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
An examination of red and blue parishes in Louisiana shows that while
Orleans and St. John the Baptist parishes are blue, all others hardest
hit by Katrina are red parishes. (Here you need to select the right
election and race: http://69.2.40.145/sosmaps/dynamicmapping.aspx
In Mississippi, the situation is similar, though the Secty of States
website seems down at the moment, possibly due to the disaster...
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
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Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 16:39:52 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 09:39:52 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <003c01c5b09e$d5089d00$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <20050903163952.49445.qmail@web30703.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
It readily exposes how dependent the emergency infrastructure is on a
non-robust communications network. If all your cops, ambulances, and
others are trying to communicate with a cellphone and landline system
that isn't working, how do you expect to accomplish anything?
And, once again, FEMA also expected people to follow the mandatory
evacuation order. For those complaining about all the stranded being
black, perhaps that is more a commentary on those who chose to stay for
various reasons, good or bad, than on the system.
--- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
> You are forgetting the most probable reason this was bumbled.
> Incompetence.
> I am starting to get the idea that everyone thought someone else was
> doing
> things while no one was aware of just how big ght problem was. The
> whole
> mess has been an information nightmare. The FEME people apaprently
> weren't
> watching TV. No one thought "Hey, lets grope some troops on the
> ground and
> assess the situation" Or "Let's follow the TV news crews - they
> always know
> where to go". I am willing to bet that the communications
> infrastructure of
> the news companies is superior to anything FEMA has which is why
> everyone
> except FEMA seemed to know what was going on. Had they just watched
> the news
> they could have tackled that issue.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "The Avantguardian"
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 2:21 AM
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
>
>
> >
> >
> > --- "kevinfreels.com" wrote:
> >
> > > Are you kidding? Do syou seriously expect anyone to
> > > believe this is a
> > > cash-flow problem? They take out loans for this kind
> > > of stuff and can borrow
> > > damn near without limits.
> >
> > I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I was
> > merely hypothesizing why the federal government would
> > sit idly by and watch one of its oldest and most
> > historic cities become a third-world-country over
> > night and then let it sit that way for days before
> > doing anything. My assumption was that it was a cash
> > flow problem as even loans take time to process but if
> > you are right and cash flow/logistic problems are not
> > to blame, then I was being overly charitable to the
> > government.
> >
> > If the snafu was not logistical, then it was
> > intentional. If the federal govern COULDN'T provide
> > immediate disaster relief, that would be one thing.
> > But if it COULD then apparently, it was just reluctant
> > to do so and that opens a whole new can of worms.
> > Because then one is left with the question of why the
> > federal government didn't want to? Was it because the
> > victims were blacks? Was it because New Orleans voted
> > democrat last time around? Or maybe all the FEMA guys
> > were waiting for Bush to get back from vacation so
> > that he could tell them what to do? If it was Miami,
> > Dubya would have had check in Jeb's hand before the
> > hurricane hit.
> >
> > I don't think it's a state jurisdiction issue either
> > as the federal government has made it crystal clear to
> > California that it will come in and step all over
> > state's jurisdiction when it WANTS to.
> >
> > Lets face it. In this administration, if you live in a
> > blue state (or a blue county in a red state) you might
> > was well be in Somalia.
> >
> >
> > The Avantguardian
> > is
> > Stuart LaForge
> > alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
> >
> > "The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they
> haven't
> attempted to contact us."
> > -Bill Watterson
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> > http://mail.yahoo.com
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From extropy at unreasonable.com Sat Sep 3 17:16:08 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 13:16:08 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <20050903113811.GG2249@leitl.org>
References: <4318CC45.60500@mindspring.com>
<6.2.3.4.2.20050902183320.054bbdd8@unreasonable.com>
<20050903113811.GG2249@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903104728.05517b78@unreasonable.com>
I wrote:
> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that
> it would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes,
> friends, he really did mean *never*.
Eugen replied:
>He was most likely already wrong at the time he spoke:
>
>http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20010601eo1.html
>http://www.afrlhorizons.com/Briefs/0009/VS0014.html
>http://www.wtec.org/loyola/ar93_94/scst.htm
I most often encounter this in public or broadcast discussions of
science, medicine, and technology. Someone will declare that X will
not achieved for decades or centuries, or perhaps ever, when I know
that it in fact was already done years ago. The remark usually stands
unchallenged.
-- David.
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 17:20:17 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 10:20:17 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need (such as dope)
In-Reply-To: <20050903163952.49445.qmail@web30703.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <200509031720.j83HKJw14061@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Lorrey
...
> And, once again, FEMA also expected people to follow the mandatory
> evacuation order...perhaps that is more a commentary on those who chose to
stay for
> various reasons, good or bad, than on the system...
> Mike Lorrey
I had a random idea, not too closely related to Mike's
comment, but here goes:
I will define addiction broadly as any behavior which
leads people to do irrational things to satisfy the
addiction. (Of course by that definition we are all
addicted to sex, but let us set that one aside for
the moment.) Let us focus on chemical addictions, to
include tobacco, some recreational drugs, and alcohol,
but exclude necessities such as food, water and sex.
We have likely seen heavy smokers get in a sitch where
they had no access to tobacco. I went backpacking with
a smoker whose cigs were ruined by water. He hiked out
on the second day, perfect weather, terrific conditions,
no tobacco, he was outta there. {8^D How much more
crazy would he have acted had he been addicted to
heroin or crack or something?
Now imagine a place where a larger than usual percentage
of the proles were addicted to something, and they were
acting irrationally to satisfy the urge. That wouldn't
be a pleasant sitch. Now recall that they interviewed
a bunch of the New Orleans people, asking why they
didn't flee the storm. A very large percentage said
they couldn't: they didn't have a car, couldn't afford
to, lived paycheck to paycheck, etc.
Simple line of reasoning: addictions of any kind will
contribute to poverty. Many addictions will cause people
to be unfit for working a 9 to 5, and of course they are
expensive. A heavy smoker will often burn more money on
tobacco than on food. So addictions may have contributed
to poverty which contributed to non-fleeing, which certainly
now contributed to poverty and suffering, which may contribute
to addiction. Oy freeking vey!
To make matters worse, imagine living in a neighborhood
where addictions are common, where the supply of *everything*
is suddenly cut off: not just no food, no water, no power, no
medicine (which would be bad enough) but now addicts with no
tobacco, no alcohol, no crack, no heroine, no meth, acting even
more crazy than before, because the FEMA and Red Cross don't
bring them smokes, alcohol or recreational drugs!
Did anyone take that into account?
Wonder if we could hire the dope smugglers to carry in
emergency food and medical supplies, then pay them the
wages to which they are so fondly accustomed?
spike
From extropy at unreasonable.com Sat Sep 3 17:17:24 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 13:17:24 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <20050903151016.57935.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <200509030302.j8332Gw32018@tick.javien.com>
<20050903151016.57935.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
I wrote:
>> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
>> would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends,
>> he really did mean *never*.
Mike Lorrey replied to Spike:
>And someone like Davids friend
While I have friends who are distinguished astronomers and friends
who are apparent idiots, this person was not a friend, just someone I
chatted with once.
>As he is an astronomer, it is understandable that he only pays
>attention to orbiting observatories. You only need one of each type in
>orbit at a time of these sorts, he is right there
We were not talking about observatories in Earth orbit. The context
was missions like Stardust or Genesis.
-- David Lubkin.
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 17:48:45 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 10:48:45 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <200509031748.j83Hmkw16849@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of David Lubkin
> Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
> spaceflight?
>
> I wrote:
>
> >> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
> >> would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends,
> >> he really did mean *never*.
...
>
> >And someone like Davids friend
>
> While I have friends who are distinguished astronomers and friends
> who are apparent idiots, this person was not a friend, just someone I
> chatted with once...
>
>
> -- David Lubkin...
David if you see your astronomer acquaintance, do point out
that altho the Iridium satellite constellation was an
*business* failure, the Lockheeed-Martin-built satellites
were a smashing success from a spacecraft reliability
point of view. We knew when we were building them that
they would not come: the handsets were a couple thousand
bucks and needed a heavy battery that had to be carried in
a small briefcase. Cell phones were already available
by then and getting cheap, so Iridium didn't sell.
Well duh! The Motorola board of directors were smoking
crack if they ever believed otherwise. But the 66 Iridium
birds worked, and they still do. If you are traveling in
Antarctica and need to call the office, it is the way to
go. Otherwise, cell phones: lighter, a tenth the price,
a bunch of companies competing for your business. {8-]
spike
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Sat Sep 3 18:18:47 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 13:18:47 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
References: <20050903075851.18738.qmail@web60511.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <005a01c5b0b3$ede32c90$0100a8c0@kevin>
Um. Didn't I just make that same remark - but with sarcasm? These kinds of
things need immediate work, not a months lonog bid process. There has been
no end run around the free market. It is there. Just start your own company,
do a better job quicker and do it for less and I am sure you will get all
the business. :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: "The Avantguardian"
To: "ExI chat list"
Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 2:58 AM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
>
>
> --- "J. Andrew Rogers"
> wrote:
>
> > On 9/2/05 8:16 PM, "Olga Bourlin"
> > wrote:
> > > Who would have thought? WHO would have thought?
> > ...
> >
> >
> > Well, duh. Who else could do it? This the kind of
> > thing they *specialize*
> > in. No matter what kind of contract Halliburton
> > gets, it MUST be a sinister
> > conspiracy of some type. It is written into their
> > corporate charter doncha
> > know.
>
> I think the lady's point is that Halliburton should
> not be (and probably isn't when I think about it) the
> ONLY company that can do it. There is this thing
> called monopoly that gums up the gears of a freemarket
> economy and I don't need my tin-foil hat to figure out
> that monopoly needs a collusion between the government
> and A COMPANY in order to prosper in a free market. I
> say put these kind of contracts up on BID. There are
> many construction contractors that are perfectly
> capable of building whatever you want them to build
> especially if they are not in a war-zone. What's next,
> is Halliburton gonna muscle in on the home-improvement
> market?
>
> The Avantguardian
> is
> Stuart LaForge
> alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
>
> "The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't
attempted to contact us."
> -Bill Watterson
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From kevin at kevinfreels.com Sat Sep 3 18:33:27 2005
From: kevin at kevinfreels.com (kevinfreels.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 13:33:27 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
References: <20050903140445.92508.qmail@web60519.mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <008601c5b0b5$fa526480$0100a8c0@kevin>
>
> --- Rik van Riel wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 1 Sep 2005, Hal Finney wrote:
> >
> > > If you were an insider and knew that oil was going
> > to be worth that much
> > > in a few years, why would you be pumping for all
> > you were worth and
> > > selling it today for $70/barrel? That doesn't
> > make sense.
> >
> > If you were a 60 year old CEO, would you try to
> > maximise
> > profits today and keep shareholders happy, or would
> > you
> > gamble that prices will be higher 15 years in the
> > future
> > and hope you can string the shareholders along for
> > that
> > time ?
>
> Precisely. From your 60 yr old CEO's point of view, it
> would be most advantageous to keep your investors
> thinking that the oil was plentiful and that
> everything was going smoothly. Even if you were in
> reality pumping the dregs of your wells. After all, if
> you are waiting to see if you die before you go out of
> business, you might as well make every buck you can
> while you can.
>
>
If I were 60 and CEO, I would make the world think I was about out of oil
and charge 3 times as much for it so I could make a ton more money and spend
it before I die. The investors, seeing that prices were soon to go way up
would hang onto and maybe even buy more stock. They could always get out
later just before the oil ran out, and would in fact stay in till the last
minute to maximize the profits.
From fortean1 at mindspring.com Sat Sep 3 18:43:24 2005
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 11:43:24 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD (PvT) An Anniversary
Message-ID: <4319EECC.20604@mindspring.com>
While we have been watching the fiasco unfold in NOLA, the anniversary
of another disastrous storm passed quietly and without much notice in
the Press. On September 2, 1935-70 years ago, the most intense hurricane
to ever strike the US slammed into the Florida Keys. This was the
infamous Labor Day Hurricane. It was a very compact storm that bombed
into a Cat 5 storm in a short time. The pressure in the storm as it
passed over Matacumbe Key was 892mb-the lowest pressure ever measured in
the US and was to stand as the lowest pressure measure in an Atlantic
Basin Storm until Gilbert's 888mb reading in 1988. The winds in the
storm were estimated to have been as high as 200mph sustained. Not until
Camille in 1969 was a Cat 5 to visit our shores.
Now for Katrina, not a Cat 5 at landfall but it has sadly verified all
predictions as to what could happen in NOLA in such a situation. It's
quickly becoming obvious that this will become the greatest natural
disaster ever in the history of the US with a death toll usually
reserved for less develop countries. Also obvious that all levels of
Government have failed abysmally in their response. This is most
disturbing for now Al Qaida knows how weak we are. I can imagine that
the people in NHC have to be sad and angry at what has happened for they
did an outstanding job of forecasting the track of the storm and of
putting out the warnings only to have the idiots in NOLA crap it all away.
We have one last (and minor) period of monsoonal moisture and flow in
here now for some shower and boomer activity through the weekend and
then we will probably shut the monsoon down for another year. Typhoon
Nabi has weakened a bit to 120kt and is expected to pass NE of Okinawa
and then head for Korea.
Steve
--
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
Home Page: < http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html >
Sites: * Fortean Times * Mystic's Haven * TLCB *
U.S. Message Text Formatting (USMTF) Program
------------
Member: Thailand-Laos-Cambodia Brotherhood (TLCB) Mailing List
TLCB Web Site: < http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org > [Southeast Asia
veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]
From sjatkins at mac.com Sat Sep 3 19:10:07 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 12:10:07 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To:
References:
Message-ID: <9A41AC68-0D1A-4D05-8FAB-60015A572972@mac.com>
Thanks for the poison pen enlightenment. Really.
-s
On Sep 3, 2005, at 12:43 AM, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:
> On 9/2/05 8:16 PM, "Olga Bourlin" wrote:
>
>> Who would have thought? WHO would have thought? ...
>>
>
>
> Well, duh. Who else could do it? This the kind of thing they
> *specialize*
> in. No matter what kind of contract Halliburton gets, it MUST be a
> sinister
> conspiracy of some type. It is written into their corporate
> charter doncha
> know.
>
> Recycle that aluminum foil please, when you are done wearing it on
> your
> head. Proof positive that knee-jerk tribalism and their kook
> fringe friends
> are alive and well...
>
>
> J. Andrew Rogers
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
>
From spike66 at comcast.net Sat Sep 3 19:30:36 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 12:30:36 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD (PvT) An Anniversary
In-Reply-To: <4319EECC.20604@mindspring.com>
Message-ID: <200509031930.j83JUdw26793@tick.javien.com>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Terry W. Colvin
> Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 11:43 AM
> To: skeptic at listproc.hcf.jhu.edu; ExI chat list
> Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD (PvT) An Anniversary
>
> ... On September 2, 1935-70 years ago, the most intense hurricane
> to ever strike the US slammed into the Florida Keys...
Impossible! That was before global warming.
>
> ...NHC have to be sad and angry at what has happened for they
> did an outstanding job of forecasting the track of the storm and of
> putting out the warnings only to have the idiots in NOLA crap it all
away...
> Steve
There was a NOVA program a few months ago where they
talked about what would happen should a hurricane hit
near New Orleans. I only saw part of it, but what I
saw was stunningly prescient. The guy had a pole 18
feet long, down in the French sector, talking about
how the water would go this high after the levy failed
somewhere near Lake Ponchartrain, filled the basin, and
it would happen most likely *after* the eye of the storm
was well inland, since the storm would carry moisture
up the river, drop rain, water would back up, over it
goes, wash away the support for the levy, low basin
fills in, loss of life and property difficult to
imagine. Right, right, right and right.
Did anyone else see that program? Wasn't it on just
a few months ago? Has it already been mentioned here?
spike
From extropy at unreasonable.com Sat Sep 3 19:46:26 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 15:46:26 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD (PvT) An Anniversary
In-Reply-To: <4319EECC.20604@mindspring.com>
References: <4319EECC.20604@mindspring.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903152642.056de008@unreasonable.com>
Terry W. Colvin wrote:
>It's quickly becoming obvious that this will become the greatest
>natural disaster ever in the history of the US with a death toll
>usually reserved for less develop countries. Also obvious that all
>levels of Government have failed abysmally in their response. This
>is most disturbing for now Al Qaida knows how weak we are.
Watching the analysis of how the flooding of New Orleans resulted
from two small breaks, it struck me that a group opposed to us might
pick ordinary stress points in our system and attack them at times of
peak stress.
Wouldn't causing those breaks be a lot simpler than orchestrating
9/11? Yet the human and economic ripples are comparable or greater.
No particular PR value, but there are other goals an enemy might
have, and some foes might want to hurt us without exposure.
It also might be a great first blow in a one-two punch. Divert our
attention while they can get their main mission in place.
-- David Lubkin.
From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sat Sep 3 21:23:34 2005
From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 17:23:34 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
References: <200509030302.j8332Gw32018@tick.javien.com>
<20050903151016.57935.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <22a515912957cd7edfe6e944516f06d9@HarveyNewstrom.com>
On Sep 3, 2005, at 1:17 PM, David Lubkin wrote:
> [...] I have friends who are distinguished astronomers and friends who
> are apparent idiots [....]
(Camera zooms in on Harv's face while we hear his thoughts audibly on
the soundtrack.)
Hm. I wonder which group I'm in.
On the one hand, I like to think that I am one of David's friends.
But on the other hand, I'm no astronomer.
(pause)
That would mean....
(thinking.... thinking... thinking...)
(almost a look of recognition, then a blank look)
No, wait. I've lost it.
(Shrugs)
(Camera zooms out to normal position. Regular conversation resumes.)
--
Harvey Newstrom
CISSP CISA CISM CIFI NSA-IAM GSEC ISSAP ISSMP ISSPCS IBMCP
From pharos at gmail.com Sat Sep 3 22:03:11 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 23:03:11 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To: <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
References:
<20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org> <4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> I cannot find the exact quote or attribution. I remember the quote as:
> "Any city is three days away from barbarism."
> Does anyone know the actual quote?
I could only find one reference, a comment piece about the New Orleans flood.
Friday, September 02, 2005
Hurricane Katrina: Granting a Grim Insight into the American Society of Excuses
It's not pretty, it's pretty grim. American society is only three days
from barbarism.
Today we are seeing heroism and villainy in New Orleans. Hurricane
Katrina is giving us a rare view into the psyche of our people. It is
a view of sacrifice, voluntarism, charity, helpful neighbors, and
tireless rescuers. But it is also a view of looting, assault, killing,
anger, hatred, and, ultimately, anarchy. Today we see what happens
when this "thin veneer of civilization" is stripped away from our
society.
---------------
But the "three days" thing seems to be almost a built-in assumption in
many of the disaster planning articles, so I wouldn't be surprised to
find many similar quotes using slightly different words.
e.g.
Most city households have three days supplies of food and water.
If there is a permanent power blackout, after three days everything stops.
If a city section riots, the police generally wait three days for the
rioters to calm down, get hungry and thirsty, then they move in to
clean up.
BillK
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sat Sep 3 22:30:11 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 15:30:11 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <20050903223011.41481.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- David Lubkin wrote:
> I wrote:
>
> >> He proclaimed that spacecraft *must* be custom-built, and that it
> >> would *never* be possible to mass-produce them. And yes, friends,
> >> he really did mean *never*.
>
> Mike Lorrey replied to Spike:
>
> >And someone like Davids friend
>
> While I have friends who are distinguished astronomers and friends
> who are apparent idiots, this person was not a friend, just someone I
>
> chatted with once.
>
> >As he is an astronomer, it is understandable that he only pays
> >attention to orbiting observatories. You only need one of each type
> in
> >orbit at a time of these sorts, he is right there
>
> We were not talking about observatories in Earth orbit. The context
> was missions like Stardust or Genesis.
Ah, probes. You are of course correct that having lots of probes
exploring lots of areas of the solar system would be great and really
expand knowledge, there are points to be made that each probe mission
calls for a specific mix of instruments, power systems, etc. However,
there is no reason that, say, a dozen different classes of probe with
modularized equipment could not be designed and mass produced to be
sent out in quanitites to explore lots of things.
The tough problem is that when you are mass producing something, you
are doing so in order to earn a profit by doing so. Making space
science pay for itself, such as geological assays and surveys do, is
the key to doing what you want.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From dgc at cox.net Sat Sep 3 22:46:43 2005
From: dgc at cox.net (Dan Clemmensen)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:46:43 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Any city is three days away from barbarism?
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050901104237.GS2249@leitl.org>
<4318D6A6.6000508@cox.net>
Message-ID: <431A27D3.9090300@cox.net>
BillK wrote:
>On 9/2/05, Dan Clemmensen wrote:
>
>
>>I cannot find the exact quote or attribution. I remember the quote as:
>> "Any city is three days away from barbarism."
>>Does anyone know the actual quote?
>>
>>
>
>
>I could only find one reference, a comment piece about the New Orleans flood.
>
>
>Friday, September 02, 2005
>Hurricane Katrina: Granting a Grim Insight into the American Society of Excuses
>
>It's not pretty, it's pretty grim. American society is only three days
>from barbarism.
>
>
Sorry. I initially started asking my co-workers about this quote on
Wednesday. I remember it form a decade or more ago.
I do not think american society is 3 days away from barbarism, Th effect
results from a cutoff of essential inputs from an ares hat cannot
produce the inputs itself. That can happen to a city, but not to the US
as a whole. A catastrophe affecting the US as a whole would have a
different dynamic. Depending on the catastrophe, the effect might be
even more horrific, but would likely take more than three days.
Essentially any group of people will revert to barbarism when truly
essential supplies are suddenly completely unavailable. The "three days"
is approximately the reserve for potable water in a city. Note that a
barbaric society will still contain majority of individuals that
exhibit heroism, altruism, and all the other laudable human qualities,
but when your baby or your grandparent need water to live and there is
not enough water to go around, you are likely to act decisively to
secure water. This is true whether you are rich or poor, educated or
uneducated, smart or stupid, black or white, homo or hetero, religious
or atheist.
From thespike at satx.rr.com Sat Sep 3 23:54:48 2005
From: thespike at satx.rr.com (Damien Broderick)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 18:54:48 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Manhattan vs. New Orleans
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050902003155.0513cdd0@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.1.2.0.20050903185319.01c4d090@pop-server.satx.rr.com>
At 12:53 AM 9/2/2005 -0400, David L wrote:
>(3) What explains the differences between these two portrayed responses?
>The causes of the events? The composition of the populace?
Here's a perhaps unexpected reply, from novelist Anne Rice (perhaps it will
be dismissed as romanticism):
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/04/opinion/04rice.html?ei=5090&en=ce2f33f8719dba9c&ex=1283486400&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
September 4, 2005
Do You Know What It Means to Lose New Orleans? By ANNE RICE
La Jolla, Calif.
WHAT do people really know about New Orleans? Do they take away with
them an awareness that it has always been not only a great white
metropolis but also a great black city, a city where African-Americans
have come together again and again to form the strongest
African-American culture in the land? The first literary magazine ever
published in Louisiana was the work of black men, French-speaking poets
and writers who brought together their work in three issues of a little
book called L'Album Litt?raire. That was in the 1840's, and by that
time the city had a prosperous class of free black artisans, sculptors,
businessmen, property owners, skilled laborers in all fields. Thousands
of slaves lived on their own in the city, too, making a living at
various jobs, and sending home a few dollars to their owners in the
country at the end of the month. This is not to diminish the horror of
the slave market in the middle of the famous St. Louis Hotel, or the
injustice of the slave labor on plantations from one end of the state to
the other. It is merely to say that it was never all "have or have not"
in this strange and beautiful city.
Later in the 19th century, as the Irish immigrants poured in by the
thousands, filling the holds of ships that had emptied their cargoes of
cotton in Liverpool, and as the German and Italian immigrants soon
followed, a vital and complex culture emerged. Huge churches went up to
serve the great faith of the city's European-born Catholics; convents
and schools and orphanages were built for the newly arrived and the
struggling; the city expanded in all directions with new neighborhoods
of large, graceful houses, or areas of more humble cottages, even the
smallest of which, with their floor-length shutters and deep-pitched
roofs, possessed an undeniable Caribbean charm. Through this all, black
culture never declined in Louisiana. In fact, New Orleans became home to
blacks in a way, perhaps, that few other American cities have ever been.
Dillard University and Xavier University became two of the most
outstanding black colleges in America; and once the battles of
desegregation had been won, black New Orleanians entered all levels of
life, building a visible middle class that is absent in far too many
Western and Northern American cities to this day. The influence of
blacks on the music of the city and the nation is too immense and too
well known to be described. It was black musicians coming down to New
Orleans for work who nicknamed the city "the Big Easy" because it was a
place where they could always find a job. But it's not fair to the
nature of New Orleans to think of jazz and the blues as the poor man's
music, or the music of the oppressed. Something else was going on in New
Orleans. The living was good there. The clock ticked more slowly; people
laughed more easily; people kissed; people loved; there was joy.
Which is why so many New Orleanians, black and white, never went north.
They didn't want to leave a place where they felt at home in
neighborhoods that dated back centuries; they didn't want to leave
families whose rounds of weddings, births and funerals had become the
fabric of their lives. They didn't want to leave a city where tolerance
had always been able to outweigh prejudice, where patience had always
been able to outweigh rage. They didn't want to leave a place that was
theirs.
And so New Orleans prospered, slowly, unevenly, but surely - home to
Protestants and Catholics, including the Irish parading through the old
neighborhood on St. Patrick's Day as they hand out cabbages and potatoes
and onions to the eager crowds; including the Italians, with their
lavish St. Joseph's altars spread out with cakes and cookies in homes
and restaurants and churches every March; including the uptown
traditionalists who seek to preserve the peace and beauty of the Garden
District; including the Germans with their clubs and traditions;
including the black population playing an ever increasing role in the
city's civic affairs.
Now nature has done what the Civil War couldn't do. Nature has done what
the labor riots of the 1920's couldn't do. Nature had done what "modern
life" with its relentless pursuit of efficiency couldn't do. It has done
what racism couldn't do, and what segregation couldn't do either. Nature
has laid the city waste - with a scope that brings to mind the end of
Pompeii.
?
I share this history for a reason - and to answer questions that have
arisen these last few days. Almost as soon as the cameras began panning
over the rooftops, and the helicopters began chopping free those trapped
in their attics, a chorus of voices rose. "Why didn't they leave?"
people asked both on and off camera. "Why did they stay there when they
knew a storm was coming?" One reporter even asked me, "Why do people
live in such a place?"
Then as conditions became unbearable, the looters took to the streets.
Windows were smashed, jewelry snatched, stores broken open, water and
food and televisions carried out by fierce and uninhibited crowds. Now
the voices grew even louder. How could these thieves loot and pillage in
a time of such crisis? How could people shoot one another? Because the
faces of those drowning and the faces of those looting were largely
black faces, race came into the picture. What kind of people are these,
the people of New Orleans, who stay in a city about to be flooded, and
then turn on one another?
Well, here's an answer. Thousands didn't leave New Orleans because they
couldn't leave. They didn't have the money. They didn't have the
vehicles. They didn't have any place to go. They are the poor, black and
white, who dwell in any city in great numbers; and they did what they
felt they could do - they huddled together in the strongest houses they
could find. There was no way to up and leave and check into the nearest
Ramada Inn.
What's more, thousands more who could have left stayed behind to help
others. They went out in the helicopters and pulled the survivors off
rooftops; they went through the flooded streets in their boats trying to
gather those they could find. Meanwhile, city officials tried
desperately to alleviate the worsening conditions in the Superdome,
while makeshift shelters and hotels and hospitals struggled. And where
was everyone else during all this? Oh, help is coming, New Orleans was
told. We are a rich country. Congress is acting. Someone will come to
stop the looting and care for the refugees. And it's true: eventually,
help did come. But how many times did Gov. Kathleen Blanco have to say
that the situation was desperate? How many times did Mayor Ray Nagin
have to call for aid? Why did America ask a city cherished by millions
and excoriated by some, but ignored by no one, to fight for its own life
for so long? That's my question. I know that New Orleans will win its
fight in the end. I was born in the city and lived there for many years.
It shaped who and what I am. Never have I experienced a place where
people knew more about love, about family, about loyalty and about
getting along than the people of New Orleans. It is perhaps their very
gentleness that gives them their endurance.
They will rebuild as they have after storms of the past; and they will
stay in New Orleans because it is where they have always lived, where
their mothers and their fathers lived, where their churches were built
by their ancestors, where their family graves carry names that go back
200 years. They will stay in New Orleans where they can enjoy a
sweetness of family life that other communities lost long ago. But to my
country I want to say this: During this crisis you failed us. You looked
down on us; you dismissed our victims; you dismissed us. You want our
Jazz Fest, you want our Mardi Gras, you want our cooking and our music.
Then when you saw us in real trouble, when you saw a tiny minority
preying on the weak among us, you called us "Sin City," and turned your
backs.
Well, we are a lot more than all that. And though we may seem the most
exotic, the most atmospheric and, at times, the most downtrodden part of
this land, we are still part of it. We are Americans. We are you.
From hal at finney.org Sat Sep 3 23:32:18 2005
From: hal at finney.org (Hal Finney)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 16:32:18 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
Message-ID: <20050903233218.1925F57EF5@finney.org>
Here are a few more thoughts about Peak Oil.
For those who have not run into it, although there are many variants,
the most virally virulent version of Peak Oil says that we are within
two or three years of the fall of Western civilization. This may seem
absurd on its face but I will lay out the argument briefly.
It is suggested that we are reaching a peak in oil production such that
no reasonable amount of money, or perhaps no amount of money whatsoever,
can increase production levels. While the world's oil wells still have
lots of oil, it is becoming harder and harder to extract. Existing
technologies to increase the rate of extraction work for a few years
but then the fields "die" and the rate of production begins to fall
by 10 to 20 percent per year, and no known technology can change that.
There is nothing, in this view, that can increase the rate of production
of oil to overcome the declines that are appearing in more and more
countries around the world. Only Saudi Arabia claims to have the ability
to increase production, but Peak Oilers generally believe that Saudi
Arabia is lying. Oil analyst Matt Simmons published a book this year,
Twilight in the Desert, analyzing Saudi oil fields in detail and arguing
that they are near their own peak.
This supposedly inexorable decline in oil production levels runs head-on
into rapidly growing world demand for oil. China in particular, but
also other countries like India, are expanding their oil consumption at
a rapid rate. And of course Western countries, especially the U.S.,
are also continuing to use more and more oil every year. Although the
West has improved its oil efficiency in many ways, the current economy is
fundamentally dependent on oil for growth, and in the present situation,
economic growth will be impossible without increasing the supply of oil.
The collision of these two trends will, it is claimed, produce
catastrophe. Oil prices will skyrocket to unheard-of levels, hundreds of
dollars per barrel. Most people will simply be unable to afford gasoline
or heating oil. Airlines and other forms of transport will go bankrupt
and business failures will be widespread. The economy will enter a
permanent state of decline that will make the Great Depression look mild.
Worse, even essentials like food and pharmaceuticals are highly dependent
on oil, and with the explosion in the price of this crucial commodity,
the world will see a rapid spread of famine and disease. This produces
what Peak Oilers call the "great die-off" and many of them expect it
within a few years.
Once things stabilize, in a decade or so, we will have a permanently
poor world, reduced to an early 19th century level of technology
and productivity, subsistence farming without the benefit of modern
fertilizers or equipment.
This may seem like an astonishingly implausible scenario, but it is widely
believed among the Peak Oil community. See sites such as dieoff.org or
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net for more details about the impending disaster.
BTW, Matt Savinar, author of the latter web site, will be on the Coast to
Coast AM radio show tonight, syndicated in many cities across the U.S.
He's one of the most extreme Peak Oilers and a big supporter of this
apocalyptic scenario.
Of course, not everyone concerned with Peak Oil buys into this whole
picture. There are a range of beliefs. Some see this scenario playing
out, but not for a decade or more. Others think that the impact will be
limited to a permanent state of economic depression, and don't accept the
great die-off. People also disagree about just when the peak will occur.
Some see it as 10 to 15 years off, others out 5 years or 2 years, and
yet others think it's already happened and we are beginning to feel the
first effects.
Needless to say, this is not a very Extropian image of the future!
And if you look closely you can see some inconsistencies and flaws in
the assumptions that this scenario is based on. Nevertheless the Peak
Oil community devotes enormous efforts to analyzing every scrap of news
about oil supply and demand levels all over the world, and in fact their
predictions do hold up pretty well against recent trends. As oil reaches
each new price level, Peak Oilers take it as vindication and confirmation
of their views. There was a time when $50 oil was unimaginable. Then $60
oil was unimaginable, then $70. Today $80 or $90 oil is unimaginable.
What will we be saying by the end of this year?
I will write more about this soon...
Hal
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 00:56:50 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 17:56:50 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050903233218.1925F57EF5@finney.org>
Message-ID: <20050904005650.9929.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Hal Finney wrote:>
> As oil reaches each new price level, Peak Oilers take it as
> vindication and confirmation of their views. There was a time when
> $50 oil was unimaginable. Then $60 oil was unimaginable, then $70.
> Today $80 or $90 oil is unimaginable. What will we be saying by the
> end of this year?
What do they say about the fact that once you take into account price
shifts solely due to changes in the value of the dollar caused by
banking policy, oil prices of $56/bbl today are essentially no
different from $40/bbl prices two years ago. Todays spot price of $69
is equal to $49/bbl prices two years ago, when prices were $30/bbl. So
it appears that half of the present high prices vs. two years ago is
solely due to fluctuations in the dollar markets due to banking policy.
The other half can be attributed to multiple things: middle east
instability, the current Katrina crisis, as well as growth in Chinese
demand.
It all depends on what currency you value the oil by. How has the price
of oil in Euros changed over the last several years? Not nearly as
much. While the Chinese Yuan price for oil has followed the dollar up
until last month, it is currently dropping.
Looking at oil and gasoline futures on Bloomberg today, prices are all
headed down by significant percentages, primarily due to this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001099&sid=arESneY6CKik&refer=energy
The US has 700 million barrels in its Strategic Oil Reserve and can tap
it at 4.4 million barrels per day (giving a 154 day supply at the
maximum rate). It is currently going to sell about a million barrels a
day of it as part of the IEA action described above. Given this action,
prices should be back below $60/bbl within a month or two.
I should also note that President Bush ordered the Reserve filled to
capacity shortly after 9/11, when oil prices shot up from the mid $25
range to the $35-38 range on the spot markets. Depending on what prices
it obtained these reserves at, the gov't could realize a significant
windfall on these sales. Assuming they sell a million a day for two
months, they should see profits of about $1.5 billion, which should
help offset some of the $10.5 billion being authorized by Congress for
the Katrina recovery efforts.
As this oil is oil that has already been purchased from the originating
nations and put into old salt mines, or domestic wells that have been
mothballed for the reserve, this effort should also bring world oil
prices down by creating a bit of a glut, especially considering the
short term lack of refinery facitilies in operation here in the US.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com
From sjatkins at mac.com Sun Sep 4 00:59:22 2005
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 17:59:22 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050903233218.1925F57EF5@finney.org>
References: <20050903233218.1925F57EF5@finney.org>
Message-ID: <41B4557E-0042-4712-9ABA-5319C438ED7F@mac.com>
On Sep 3, 2005, at 4:32 PM, Hal Finney wrote:
> Here are a few more thoughts about Peak Oil.
>
> For those who have not run into it, although there are many variants,
> the most virally virulent version of Peak Oil says that we are within
> two or three years of the fall of Western civilization. This may seem
> absurd on its face but I will lay out the argument briefly.
>
> It is suggested that we are reaching a peak in oil production such
> that
> no reasonable amount of money, or perhaps no amount of money
> whatsoever,
> can increase production levels. While the world's oil wells still
> have
> lots of oil, it is becoming harder and harder to extract. Existing
> technologies to increase the rate of extraction work for a few years
> but then the fields "die" and the rate of production begins to fall
> by 10 to 20 percent per year, and no known technology can change that.
> There is nothing, in this view, that can increase the rate of
> production
> of oil to overcome the declines that are appearing in more and more
> countries around the world. Only Saudi Arabia claims to have the
> ability
> to increase production, but Peak Oilers generally believe that Saudi
> Arabia is lying. Oil analyst Matt Simmons published a book this year,
> Twilight in the Desert, analyzing Saudi oil fields in detail and
> arguing
> that they are near their own peak.
As I used to work in (or at least on the outskirts of) the industry I
can attest that this is more or less correct. There are no known
technologies that can significantly increase the productivity of a
field without shortening its productive lifetime or prevent its
eventual decline in production. Some of this is simple common
sense. It is not a "view". What is a view is the notions portrayed
of what the consequences of world wide oil demand outstripping supply
will likely be. But that demand will outstrip supply is incontestable.
>
> This supposedly inexorable decline in oil production levels runs
> head-on
> into rapidly growing world demand for oil. China in particular, but
> also other countries like India, are expanding their oil
> consumption at
> a rapid rate. And of course Western countries, especially the U.S.,
> are also continuing to use more and more oil every year. Although the
> West has improved its oil efficiency in many ways, the current
> economy is
> fundamentally dependent on oil for growth, and in the present
> situation,
> economic growth will be impossible without increasing the supply of
> oil.
>
> The collision of these two trends will, it is claimed, produce
> catastrophe. Oil prices will skyrocket to unheard-of levels,
> hundreds of
> dollars per barrel. Most people will simply be unable to afford
> gasoline
> or heating oil. Airlines and other forms of transport will go
> bankrupt
> and business failures will be widespread. The economy will enter a
> permanent state of decline that will make the Great Depression look
> mild.
I don't know about hundreds of dollars per barrel but as it stands we
are certainly headed for a very real energy crisis. There are many
factors that lead me to belief that we are also in for an exceedingly
dangerous and painful economic crisis other than peak oil.
>
> Worse, even essentials like food and pharmaceuticals are highly
> dependent
> on oil, and with the explosion in the price of this crucial commodity,
> the world will see a rapid spread of famine and disease. This
> produces
> what Peak Oilers call the "great die-off" and many of them expect it
> within a few years.
You are talking about one particular fringe group of people who
believe peak oil is real. Implying that all people who believe Peak
Oil is real have the same beliefs is dishonest. Let us see and
address the real problem instead of disowning it.
>
> This may seem like an astonishingly implausible scenario, but it is
> widely
> believed among the Peak Oil community.
Not really.
>
> Of course, not everyone concerned with Peak Oil buys into this whole
> picture. There are a range of beliefs. Some see this scenario
> playing
> out, but not for a decade or more. Others think that the impact
> will be
> limited to a permanent state of economic depression, and don't
> accept the
> great die-off.
Others including myself believe that new technolgies will take up
the slack. Unfortunately the deniers of the problem and the real
inertia of how long it takes to bring alternatives fully online means
there will be some harsh consequences before the problem is
sufficiently addressed.
> People also disagree about just when the peak will occur.
> Some see it as 10 to 15 years off, others out 5 years or 2 years, and
> yet others think it's already happened and we are beginning to feel
> the
> first effects.
It is difficult to say without much more impartial and complete data
on the state of existing fields. But my guess would be no more than
5 years. My suspicion is that it has already begun among those in
power who see it coming.
>
> Needless to say, this is not a very Extropian image of the future!
Being Extropian does not include living in denial of real problems!
Extropianism is not simply wearing high tech rose-colored glasses.
> And if you look closely you can see some inconsistencies and flaws in
> the assumptions that this scenario is based on. Nevertheless the Peak
> Oil community devotes enormous efforts to analyzing every scrap of
> news
> about oil supply and demand levels all over the world, and in fact
> their
> predictions do hold up pretty well against recent trends.
Yes.
> As oil reaches
> each new price level, Peak Oilers take it as vindication and
> confirmation
> of their views. There was a time when $50 oil was unimaginable.
> Then $60
> oil was unimaginable, then $70. Today $80 or $90 oil is unimaginable.
Non-fringe major financial sources have talked about spikes to $100
per barrel. When that happens will you believe the problem is real?
What would constitute enough evidence to convince you that we face a
very real problem?
- samantha
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From extropy at unreasonable.com Sun Sep 4 01:02:10 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 21:02:10 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <20050903223011.41481.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com>
<20050903223011.41481.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903200248.0579cea8@unreasonable.com>
Mike Lorrey wrote:
>The tough problem is that when you are mass producing something, you
>are doing so in order to earn a profit by doing so. Making space
>science pay for itself, such as geological assays and surveys do, is
>the key to doing what you want.
Part of that answer could be communications-relay spacecraft.
There's a group that's adapting the Internet protocols for the
specific characteristics involved with an environment where even a
ping will take hours and an aging host may have too little remaining
power to waste resending mangled packets.
Perhaps they should look at (if they aren't already) adapting the
routing protocols and building a space-worthy router that can become
a standard module included in every spacecraft, manned or unmanned,
regardless of mission.
I'd also love to see more standards for describing and merging sensor
data, so that we can gradually build a grid of multi-purpose
buoys-cum-lighthouses throughout the system and then extending
beyond, perhaps one every light-hour for starters.
(The standards are, in part, to make it easy to combine data from
different generations of buoys, so the grid can be upgraded piecewise
or have better equipment in the areas we care more about.)
-- David.
From natasha at natasha.cc Sun Sep 4 01:39:45 2005
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 20:39:45 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] ARTICLE: French magazine looking for scientists/tech
for article
Message-ID: <6.2.1.2.2.20050903202416.04a5d3e0@pop-server.austin.rr.com>
Request from french magazine regarding science,
scientific research and technology questions
about human augmentation
French journalist is looking for experts, preferably affiliated with
universities,:
"... interested especially in "enhancement
technologies". I mean, technologies for better ear, eye, muscles,
brain...betterhuman to sum up. We would need to talk with University
scientists who work on that kind of project and could explain us their
theory and experiments. Scientist who has futuristic and ethical reflexion
about that research, also."
"Added to that we are very interested by work on cryopreservation."
The journalist would like to interview experts located in France, Belgium
and/or Switzerland; although the US would be good as well, but most likely
as a second choice.
If you are interested or can suggest experts, please send information to me
at your earliest convenience.
Many thanks,
Natasha
Natasha Vita-More
Cultural Strategist, Designer
President, Extropy Institute
Founder, Transhumanist Arts & Culture
Studies of the Future, University of Houston
Knowledge is the most democratic source of power. Alvin Toffler
Random acts of kindness... Anne Herbet
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 03:45:14 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 20:45:14 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <41B4557E-0042-4712-9ABA-5319C438ED7F@mac.com>
Message-ID: <20050904034514.4011.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Samantha Atkins wrote:
> >
> As I used to work in (or at least on the outskirts of) the industry I
> can attest that this is more or less correct. There are no known
> technologies that can significantly increase the productivity of a
> field without shortening its productive lifetime or prevent its
> eventual decline in production. Some of this is simple common
> sense. It is not a "view".
Not quite. We recover an amazingly small percent of oil from any given
field. It used to max out at about 10% of what was in the ground. Today
its about 30% if the drillers drill out multiple holes from the
wellhead and turn them to parallel the surface to capture more of the
area of the field. Newer technologies to get more oil out of the ground
won't reduce the fields useful life, because the extra oil was never
gotten before. What is more, new technologies to extract more oil from
a given field means that older fields that were assumed to be spent
under old technology can be reopened and drilled with newer
technologies to extract oil that could not be gotten before.
Furthermore, your 'view' also ignores utterly the well documented
phenomenon of reservoir refilling. A wildcatter friend of mine makes
lots of money opening up old spent wells to find a lot more oil there
than the engineers once said was there. It is percolating up from deep
deep reserves and likely from inorganic sources, as the Russian
inorganic oil theory is gaining more ground and acceptance (the
Vietnamese Tiger fields would not function if inorganic oil was not a
reality).
> What is a view is the notions portrayed
> of what the consequences of world wide oil demand outstripping supply
> will likely be. But that demand will outstrip supply is
> incontestable.
If it is assumed that technology is not going to advance and lead to
more efficient consumption (as happened in the 80's). Thinking
otherwise is also unextropic.
>
> >
> > Needless to say, this is not a very Extropian image of the future!
>
> Being Extropian does not include living in denial of real problems!
> Extropianism is not simply wearing high tech rose-colored glasses.
Extropianism also does not deny that technology increases resource
utilization efficiency and that resources always get cheaper over time.
It doesn't take rose colored glasses to be optimistic, only a lack of
denial about future technological advances.
> Non-fringe major financial sources have talked about spikes to $100
> per barrel. When that happens will you believe the problem is real?
> What would constitute enough evidence to convince you that we face a
> very real problem?
Considering in real dollars the 1979 prices were over $80/bbl in
current dollars, it would have to be significantly more. $80/bbl prices
today would trigger a market backlash as was seen in the 1980's of
econoboxes and hybrid/electric/fuelcell technologies. That price level
will also attract the capital to bring tar sand derived oil and gas to
market. Once the capital is invested in that infrastructure, prices
will remain stable for another century at a minimum.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 04:33:33 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 21:33:33 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903200248.0579cea8@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <20050904043333.74280.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- David Lubkin wrote:
> Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> >The tough problem is that when you are mass producing something, you
> >are doing so in order to earn a profit by doing so. Making space
> >science pay for itself, such as geological assays and surveys do, is
> >the key to doing what you want.
>
> Part of that answer could be communications-relay spacecraft.
>
> There's a group that's adapting the Internet protocols for the
> specific characteristics involved with an environment where even a
> ping will take hours and an aging host may have too little remaining
> power to waste resending mangled packets.
>
> Perhaps they should look at (if they aren't already) adapting the
> routing protocols and building a space-worthy router that can become
> a standard module included in every spacecraft, manned or unmanned,
> regardless of mission.
Well, spin-off technologies is nice, but I'm talking about space
science making its data valuable to the market. Discovering whether a
compound is present somewhere is nice, but doing an assay of how much
of it is there and exactly where and in what form is a long way to
doing a business case for recovering that compound for economic use for
industry, colonists, etc.
For example, figuring out how much He3 is on the moon is great info,
except while theoretically its a great fusion fuel, there is no fusion
industry as yet, or even proven fusion technology. However, figuring
out how much water there is on the moon, and where, or on Mars, is of
immense economic value. The latest Mars probe being sent of last week
or so is going to generate data of immense economic value: a global
survey of the presence of water to a significant depth using radar.
That data is going to decide the feasibility of colonizing and even
terraforming Mars.
Probes surveying asteroids and comets for water, potential rocket
fuels, iron, etc will also be of immense value, but the probes must be
designed by a group intent on surveying them as if they were planning
on mining the object. Right now probe design is dictated by those who
are not industrially oriented.
>
> I'd also love to see more standards for describing and merging sensor
> data, so that we can gradually build a grid of multi-purpose
> buoys-cum-lighthouses throughout the system and then extending
> beyond, perhaps one every light-hour for starters.
With miniaturization, putting out hundreds or thousands of nano-probes
operating in a network should be as expensive as launching one big
probe like Cassini. However, more than the computers need to be
miniaturized. Thrusters (this is happening), reaction wheels less than
3" dia. (haven't seen mini-sized ones yet), and instruments, like
spectrometers, etc. that are hand held or smaller. Ideally you want to
pack a dozen instruments, a supercomputer, a solar electric propulsion
system, tracking, guidance, maneuvering systems, and communications
into a volume of less than a cubic foot at launch, weighing less than
30 lbs.
If you want to mass produce them, they need to be VCR sized made of
similar scale components. You want to launch them and disperse them in
space just like cluster bombs disperse anti-personnel weapons.
Taking a Proton launcher as an example, which has a 26 foot long by 12
foot dia payload fairing, should be able to fit 2600 of such probes in
it, though its load limit is 44,100 lbs to LEO, that would limit us to
about 1470 30 lb probes. As the Proton costs an estimated $30 million
per launch, the per probe share of launch costs would be merely
$20,048.00. If we could reduce probe mass to under 16.8 lbs, the
maximum volume could be used to launch all 2600 probes for a per probe
launch cost of just over $11,538.00. If probe volume can be reduced to
a 6 inch cube (w/ proportionate mass reduction), per probe launch cost
would be under $1460.00.
Then the question becomes how costly would the probes be to make? A
production run of thousands is significantly less than what PC or
router makers are used to. All components would need to be standardized
units off the shelf, like PC components, yet be space-ratable. I'm
thinking of a PC maker I know of that sells industrial and EMI shielded
PC systems and components. His prices are typically two to four times
the prices of consumer grade units. On a rough guestimate, I'd say each
probe would cost no less than $10k each and no more than $50k each.
Know any angels that want to help out with such a project?
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
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From spike66 at comcast.net Sun Sep 4 05:22:50 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 22:22:50 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050904034514.4011.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <200509040523.j845N1w24524@tick.javien.com>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Lorrey
> Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 8:45 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
> theorystandpoint ?
> --- Samantha Atkins wrote:
>
> > >
> > As I used to work in (or at least on the outskirts of) the industry I
> > can attest that this is more or less correct. There are no known
> > technologies that can significantly increase the productivity of a
> > field without shortening its productive lifetime ...
>
> Not quite. We recover an amazingly small percent of oil from any given
> field. It used to max out at about 10% of what was in the ground...
This whole discussion of peak oil seems too focused
on the production side and not enough on reduced
demand. To cite just one example, there is the use
of the term hybrid in transportation. Current hybrids
are all parallel hybrids, which means that the IC
engine and the electric motors run in parallel. But
this isn't much more efficient than IC only. Car
makers decided the hybrids would be introduced with
no performance compromises, perhaps to encourage
their acceptance.
Series hybrids work like a Diesel train: the IC
engine turns a generator which powers the electric
motors at the wheels. This has the potential of
enormously higher efficiency, but at the cost of
performance. They are slower, both in acceleration
and in top speed. We can survive that.
My own vision of the next three to five decades does
not include starvation or overly dire consequences, but
it is slower, with less transportation of humans. We
compensate by smarter use of communications, more
working at home, probably some downscaling in some
areas, perhaps less meat eating for instance, fewer
big entertainment events such as football games and
New Years Eve bashes in Times Square, that kinda
stuff. We will live.
Poor people will suffer, as they always have, but
even they get something out of the deal: motorhomes,
campers and travel trailers would be converted into
low cost housing, very low cost, nearly free.
My extropian view of the future is one that is
way cool still, even if it takes a little longer
to get places.
spike
From nanogirl at halcyon.com Sun Sep 4 06:39:40 2005
From: nanogirl at halcyon.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 23:39:40 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Golly
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903122424.05046528@unreasonable.com><20050903223011.41481.qmail@web30715.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<6.2.3.4.2.20050903200248.0579cea8@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <009801c5b11b$746cfc20$0200a8c0@Nano>
Hello everyone, perhaps you will like this one... it's 50s style comic strip...
http://www.nanogirl.com/museumfuture/golly.htm
Gina "Nanogirl" Miller
Nanotechnology Industries
http://www.nanoindustries.com
Personal: http://www.nanogirl.com/index2.html
Foresight Senior Associate http://www.foresight.org
Nanotechnology Advisor Extropy Institute http://www.extropy.org
3D/Animation http://www.nanogirl.com/museumfuture/index.htm
Microscope Jewelry
http://www.nanogirl.com/crafts/microjewelry.htm
Email: nanogirl at halcyon.com
"Nanotechnology: Solutions for the future."
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From robgobblin at aol.com Sun Sep 4 08:14:08 2005
From: robgobblin at aol.com (Robert Lindauer)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 22:14:08 -1000
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050904005650.9929.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050904005650.9929.qmail@web30710.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <2fb1c191ab708e25f7cc011f20412322@aol.com>
On Sep 3, 2005, at 2:56 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
>
> --- Hal Finney wrote:>
>> As oil reaches each new price level, Peak Oilers take it as
>> vindication and confirmation of their views. There was a time when
>> $50 oil was unimaginable. Then $60 oil was unimaginable, then $70.
>> Today $80 or $90 oil is unimaginable. What will we be saying by the
>> end of this year?
>
> What do they say about the fact that once you take into account price
> shifts solely due to changes in the value of the dollar caused by
> banking policy, oil prices of $56/bbl today are essentially no
> different from $40/bbl prices two years ago. Todays spot price of $69
> is equal to $49/bbl prices two years ago, when prices were $30/bbl. So
> it appears that half of the present high prices vs. two years ago is
> solely due to fluctuations in the dollar markets due to banking policy.
> The other half can be attributed to multiple things: middle east
> instability, the current Katrina crisis, as well as growth in Chinese
> demand.
I'd say your scenario contradicts itself since you say below:
> I should also note that President Bush ordered the Reserve filled to
> capacity shortly after 9/11, when oil prices shot up from the mid $25
> range to the $35-38 range on the spot markets. Depending on what prices
> it obtained these reserves at, the gov't could realize a significant
> windfall on these sales. Assuming they sell a million a day for two
> months, they should see profits of about $1.5 billion, which should
> help offset some of the $10.5 billion being authorized by Congress for
> the Katrina recovery efforts.
Well, how much is it?
Anyway, at two years at 5% inflation, from $49, you get $54, not $56
and the prices are not $56.
Anyway, this is mostly irrelevant since the underlying theory is
obvious and simple:
There are no new sources of fossil fuels. We have already tapped the
"easy to get to" ones (for the most part, I've heard recently that
Vietnam has a major reserve but I'm not aware of the reliability of the
source...) and the easy-to-get-to portions of the easy-to-get-to ones.
This leaves the harder to get to ones dwindling down to the impossible
to get to ones and finally to the no more left scenario.
The alternative - that the core of the earth is filled with nothing but
fossil fuels and we'll be able to run on unleaded gasoline for the next
100 years at our current rate of consumptive growth is absurd.
Consequently the obvious conclusion for those with half-a-brain-left is
that it's just a matter of time - 10 years, 2 years, 50 years, 100
years. In any case, the US economy in particular will have to undergo
a major change in order to survive the removal of our primary energy
source and it's the kind of thing it's better to prepare for earlier
rather than later lest we find ourselves fossil fuels one day.
Robbie Lindauer
From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 4 09:27:00 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:27:00 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] ARTICLE: French magazine looking for
scientists/tech for article
In-Reply-To: <6.2.1.2.2.20050903202416.04a5d3e0@pop-server.austin.rr.com>
References: <6.2.1.2.2.20050903202416.04a5d3e0@pop-server.austin.rr.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/4/05, Natasha Vita-More wrote:
>
> Request from french magazine regarding science,
> scientific research and technology questions
> about human augmentation
>
> Scientist who has futuristic and ethical reflexion
> about that research, also."
>
The french word 'reflexion' means 'considered thoughts or speculations'
A better translation might be:
Researchers who have futuristic and ethical speculations about human
augmentation also.
BillK
From benboc at lineone.net Sun Sep 4 09:38:03 2005
From: benboc at lineone.net (ben)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 10:38:03 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: extropy-chat Digest, Vol 24, Issue 8
In-Reply-To: <200509040523.j845NNw24575@tick.javien.com>
References: <200509040523.j845NNw24575@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <431AC07B.9020408@lineone.net>
David Lubkin wrote:
"Watching the analysis of how the flooding of New Orleans resulted
from two small breaks, it struck me that a group opposed to *us* might
pick ordinary stress points in *our* system and attack them at times of
peak stress.
Wouldn't causing those breaks be a lot simpler than orchestrating
9/11? Yet the human and economic ripples are comparable or greater.
No particular PR value, but there are other goals an enemy might
have, and some foes might want to hurt *us* without exposure.
It also might be a great first blow in a one-two punch. Divert *our*
attention while they can get their main mission in place."
[emphasis is mine]
Hmm, interesting. So just what are the ordinary stress points in the
worldwide community of Transhumanists' systems?
Or have i strayed onto the wrong list?
ben
From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 12:00:14 2005
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 05:00:14 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <200509040523.j845N1w24524@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050904120014.8869.qmail@web60518.mail.yahoo.com>
--- spike wrote:
> My own vision of the next three to five decades does
>
> not include starvation or overly dire consequences,
> but
> it is slower, with less transportation of humans.
> We
> compensate by smarter use of communications, more
> working at home, probably some downscaling in some
> areas, perhaps less meat eating for instance, fewer
> big entertainment events such as football games and
> New Years Eve bashes in Times Square, that kinda
> stuff. We will live.
I don't know, Spike. My vision is pretty nice. Our
economy goes nuke/hydrogen. We build a bunch of really
enlightened nuclear power plants with multiply
redundant safety-systems to generate electricy and
hydrogen. We use electric and matrix
absorption-desorption hydrogen fuel cell cars to go as
fast as we do now and a lot quieter too for those who
live on busy streets.
We use fission as a crutch till we get fusion in a
bottle. Then we have our own miniture suns to power
stuff. Its not unbelievable, just unpopular, because
people are afraid of the N word.
http://www.ans.org/pi/matters/hydrogen/points.html
The Avantguardian
is
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu
"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us."
-Bill Watterson
__________________________________________________
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From extropy at unreasonable.com Sun Sep 4 13:48:32 2005
From: extropy at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 09:48:32 -0400
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <20050904043333.74280.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903200248.0579cea8@unreasonable.com>
<20050904043333.74280.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20050904093107.073ed528@unreasonable.com>
Mike Lorrey wrote:
>--- David Lubkin wrote:
>
> > Part of that answer could be communications-relay spacecraft.
> >
> > There's a group that's adapting the Internet protocols for the
> > specific characteristics involved with an environment where even a
> > ping will take hours and an aging host may have too little remaining
> > power to waste resending mangled packets.
> >
> > Perhaps they should look at (if they aren't already) adapting the
> > routing protocols and building a space-worthy router that can become
> > a standard module included in every spacecraft, manned or unmanned,
> > regardless of mission.
>
>Well, spin-off technologies is nice, but I'm talking about space
>science making its data valuable to the market.
>
> > I'd also love to see more standards for describing and merging sensor
> > data, so that we can gradually build a grid of multi-purpose
> > buoys-cum-lighthouses throughout the system and then extending
> > beyond, perhaps one every light-hour for starters.
>
>With miniaturization, putting out hundreds or thousands of nano-probes
>operating in a network
How do you think that network would work without the routing
protocols and hardware I'm talking about?
Command and data relay is not a spin-off. I'm not talking about
earth-orbit. I'm saying that any mission anywhere, manned or
unmanned, is going to need command and data relay. Whether it's that
asteroid retrieval, your nano-probe network, or a manned
Mars-or-Bust, every craft needs it and every craft can provide it for others.
And your nano-probe network becomes even more economically
justifiable if, beyond its data acquisition mission, its packet relay
mission improves the reliability and performance of everything else
we do in space.
-- David.
From riel at surriel.com Sun Sep 4 14:03:41 2005
From: riel at surriel.com (Rik van Riel)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:03:41 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To: <20050903162312.1099.qmail@web30706.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050903162312.1099.qmail@web30706.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On Sat, 3 Sep 2005, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> Your improper assumption was that New Orleans wasn't a third world
> country before this disaster. I don't know how many times I've heard
> that people like to go there specifically because it has third world
> country characteristics without having to leave the US.
When making our way from the New Orleans airport to the
city center (earlier this year), my wife and I had exactly
that feeling.
New Orleans looks and feels like a poorer city in Brazil.
Richer cities in Brazil appear to be better off than New
Orleans was before Katrina.
--
"Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you are,
by definition, not smart enough to debug it." - Brian W. Kernighan
From riel at surriel.com Sun Sep 4 14:16:51 2005
From: riel at surriel.com (Rik van Riel)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:16:51 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton gets Katrina Contract
In-Reply-To: <004201c5b09f$7dd38530$0100a8c0@kevin>
References: <20050903151746.33179.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<004201c5b09f$7dd38530$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID:
On Sat, 3 Sep 2005, kevinfreels.com wrote:
> Is there a company out there that is more capable and better at handling
> the job and is willing to do it for less?
Also, would you want disaster recovery work done by companies
that cut corners in order to be cheaper than competitors ?
--
"Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you are,
by definition, not smart enough to debug it." - Brian W. Kernighan
From megao at sasktel.net Sun Sep 4 13:25:57 2005
From: megao at sasktel.net (Lifespan Pharma Inc.)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 08:25:57 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] very large distance array
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050904093107.073ed528@unreasonable.com>
References: <6.2.3.4.2.20050903200248.0579cea8@unreasonable.com>
<20050904043333.74280.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<6.2.3.4.2.20050904093107.073ed528@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <431AF5E5.4020903@sasktel.net>
such a system might also function as a very large distance array
"telescope" if each sensor had a continuous
gps like way of correcting data for relative position/and movement.
From megao at sasktel.net Sun Sep 4 13:41:02 2005
From: megao at sasktel.net (Lifespan Pharma Inc.)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 08:41:02 -0500
Subject: [extropy-chat] Halliburton and world-scale operations
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050903151746.33179.qmail@web30704.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<004201c5b09f$7dd38530$0100a8c0@kevin>
Message-ID: <431AF96E.100@sasktel.net>
Rik van Riel wrote:
>On Sat, 3 Sep 2005, kevinfreels.com wrote:
>
>
>
>>Is there a company out there that is more capable and better at handling
>>the job and is willing to do it for less?
>>
>>
>
>Also, would you want disaster recovery work done by companies
>that cut corners in order to be cheaper than competitors ?
>
>
>
The question is how do you determine when value for money spent has been
achieved and
when has a service been over compensated, not precisely who is
delivering it.
So long as there is a way to benchmark this the function of a
competitive bid system has been duplicated.
The problem is that there is a lack of world scale operators.
China or other nations are lacking in this world scale enterprise I am
assuming.
The only world scale enterprises outside the USA might only be military
in nature
which makes their bidding on USA domestic contracts unthinkable for the
world-view of North America.
The answer would be for the military forces of countries to have a
commerical activities function.
Perhaps a new role for a consortium of multinational forces?
Will we soon become mature enough as a species to think this way?
It seems evident to me that expending resources on conflict-wars etc is
dragging down the potential
of humanity to make the singularity a reality.
The core question is:
Does conflict serve any useful purpose in a technologically advanced
society or is is merely a disease
lingering from more primative times?
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From mbb386 at main.nc.us Sun Sep 4 14:39:25 2005
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:39:25 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Getting AId to people in need
In-Reply-To:
References: <20050903162312.1099.qmail@web30706.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On Sun, 4 Sep 2005, Rik van Riel wrote:
> On Sat, 3 Sep 2005, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> > Your improper assumption was that New Orleans wasn't a third world
> > country before this disaster. I don't know how many times I've heard
> > that people like to go there specifically because it has third world
> > country characteristics without having to leave the US.
>
> When making our way from the New Orleans airport to the
> city center (earlier this year), my wife and I had exactly
> that feeling.
>
> New Orleans looks and feels like a poorer city in Brazil.
> Richer cities in Brazil appear to be better off than New
> Orleans was before Katrina.
>
>
A friend of mine visited NO in 1999. He got turned around somehow
while out walking/sightseeing and found himself off the main track. He
is not a small or easily intimidated person, but he was *very* glad to
get back to "civilization".
A young man who worked near me said, after his trip to NO some years
ago, that he would never go there again... he'd never seen such
behaviour anywhere in his life before and was glad to leave. I do not
recall whether he was there for MardiGras or not; that could certainly
explain his reaction though, IMHO! :)))
As I'm not a party animal or heavy drinker, NO has had no attraction
for me; good seafood is available other places!
There was a website at one time:
http://www.acadiacom.net/nopd/tips.htm
"NEW ORLEANS POLICE DEPARTMENT
"Street Smart"
Tips for Working, Living & Playing Downtown"
The safety suggestions there were not unusual, but it seemed odd to be
sent to such a site as a tourist... Somewhat disconcerting.
Regards,
MB
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 15:32:20 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 08:32:20 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <2fb1c191ab708e25f7cc011f20412322@aol.com>
Message-ID: <20050904153220.20432.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- Robert Lindauer wrote:
>
> On Sep 3, 2005, at 2:56 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > --- Hal Finney wrote:>
> >> As oil reaches each new price level, Peak Oilers take it as
> >> vindication and confirmation of their views. There was a time
> when
> >> $50 oil was unimaginable. Then $60 oil was unimaginable, then $70.
> >> Today $80 or $90 oil is unimaginable. What will we be saying by
> the
> >> end of this year?
> >
> > What do they say about the fact that once you take into account
> price
> > shifts solely due to changes in the value of the dollar caused by
> > banking policy, oil prices of $56/bbl today are essentially no
> > different from $40/bbl prices two years ago. Todays spot price of
> $69
> > is equal to $49/bbl prices two years ago, when prices were $30/bbl.
> So
> > it appears that half of the present high prices vs. two years ago
> is
> > solely due to fluctuations in the dollar markets due to banking
> policy.
> > The other half can be attributed to multiple things: middle east
> > instability, the current Katrina crisis, as well as growth in
> Chinese
> > demand.
>
> I'd say your scenario contradicts itself since you say below:
>
> > I should also note that President Bush ordered the Reserve filled
> to
> > capacity shortly after 9/11, when oil prices shot up from the mid
> $25
> > range to the $35-38 range on the spot markets. Depending on what
> prices
> > it obtained these reserves at, the gov't could realize a
> significant
> > windfall on these sales. Assuming they sell a million a day for two
> > months, they should see profits of about $1.5 billion, which should
> > help offset some of the $10.5 billion being authorized by Congress
> for
> > the Katrina recovery efforts.
>
> Well, how much is it?
>
> Anyway, at two years at 5% inflation, from $49, you get $54, not $56
> and the prices are not $56.
Inflation is not the change in the international value of the dollar.
The dollar has dropped in value by about 40% over the last two years,
compared to other currencies. That is not reflected in our CPI because
only a small percent of our overall economic activity is priced on
foreign currencies. So, no, you are the one that is wrong.
>
> Anyway, this is mostly irrelevant since the underlying theory is
> obvious and simple:
>
> There are no new sources of fossil fuels. We have already tapped the
> "easy to get to" ones (for the most part, I've heard recently that
> Vietnam has a major reserve but I'm not aware of the reliability of
> the source...) and the easy-to-get-to portions of the easy-to-get-to
> ones.
The Vietnamese reserve you speak of is actually a proven inorganic oil
source. The "White Tiger" field offshore was drilled by Russian teams
from Yukos after American oil companies declared the field to be
non-existent and abandoned the area. The Russians drilled 17,000 feet
deep into and through basaltic layers for each well, producing 6,000
bbl/day/well.
http://reactor-core.org/peak-oil.html
The Vietnamese resources would not exist under your malthusian paradigm
of limited resources. According to the biotic oil 'experts', oil
doesn't exist that deep, and doesn't exist under the continental
basalt. The biotic theory is that it is a sedimentary deposit of
biological material. If so, it can only exist above the continental
basaltic bedrock. Once again, it is you who are wrong.
> This leaves the harder to get to ones dwindling down to the
> impossible to get to ones and finally to the no more left scenario.
And as each is exploited, new technologies will be developed that will
be able to get at them easier and cheaper. At the same time, energy
conserving technologies will enter the market and help reduce demand
per dollar of GDP.
>
> The alternative - that the core of the earth is filled with nothing
> but fossil fuels and we'll be able to run on unleaded gasoline for
the
> next 100 years at our current rate of consumptive growth is absurd.
On the contrary, the Athabascan oil tar sands of Alberta has enough oil
for centuries of consumption.
http://www.answers.com/main/ntquery;jsessionid=1mhi35m1go3h3?method=4&dsid=2222&dekey=Athabasca+Oil+Sands&gwp=8&curtab=2222_1&sbid=lc01a&linktext=Athabasca%20Tar%20Sands
"Although not proven, and not even considered within the oil industry,
according to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, the Athabasca tar
sands is the largest oil deposit in the world, with a claimed
estimation of 1.6 trillion barrels (254 km?) of oil, of which at most
315 billion barrels (50 km?) are claimed to be recoverable by the oil
companies given current technology. Syncrude
(http://www.syncrude.com/who_we_are/01_06.html), one of the oil
companies involved in mining the tar sands, states that the entire tar
sand deposit is twice the size of Lake Ontario. It is estimated the
Venezuelan Orinoco tar sands deposit is slightly larger than Athabasca
(see tar sands article). See [1]
(http://www.energybulletin.net/4385.html) for more accurate estimations
of about 174.5 billion barrels (28 km?)."
So, at current technology and global consumption rates, if all the rest
of the oil in the world ended in the near future, the Athabascan sands
could supply about ten years of total global oil consumption. With
advances in technology, the sands could potentially supply 50 years or
more of global oil needs. The Orinoco tar sands have similar capacity.
The Athabascan deposits equal 1/3 of all global reserves.
>
> Consequently the obvious conclusion for those with half-a-brain-left
> is that it's just a matter of time - 10 years, 2 years, 50 years, 100
> years. In any case, the US economy in particular will have to
> undergo
> a major change in order to survive the removal of our primary energy
> source and it's the kind of thing it's better to prepare for earlier
> rather than later lest we find ourselves fossil fuels one day.
On the contrary, the market will signal when the need occurs. As with
articles previously cited by Hal, it is clear that the oil oligopolists
won't pass up expensive prices tomorrow for cheap prices today.
Instead, they will drive up current day prices by delaying exploitation
of unused reserves or other means of expanding production beyond
current capacity. In a market of rising demand, simply delaying
expansion of production drives up prices automatically to send the
price signals that will trigger consumer conservation. Your abject lack
of faith in the market explains a lot why you are not a libertarian.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
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From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 15:44:33 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 08:44:33 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: Are dwarfs better for long duration
spaceflight?
In-Reply-To: <6.2.3.4.2.20050904093107.073ed528@unreasonable.com>
Message-ID: <20050904154433.22290.qmail@web30705.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
--- David Lubkin wrote:
> Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> >--- David Lubkin wrote:
> >
> > > Part of that answer could be communications-relay spacecraft.
> > >
> > > There's a group that's adapting the Internet protocols for the
> > > specific characteristics involved with an environment where even
> a
> > > ping will take hours and an aging host may have too little
> remaining
> > > power to waste resending mangled packets.
> > >
> > > Perhaps they should look at (if they aren't already) adapting the
> > > routing protocols and building a space-worthy router that can
> become
> > > a standard module included in every spacecraft, manned or
> unmanned,
> > > regardless of mission.
> >
> >Well, spin-off technologies is nice, but I'm talking about space
> >science making its data valuable to the market.
> >
> > > I'd also love to see more standards for describing and merging
> sensor
> > > data, so that we can gradually build a grid of multi-purpose
> > > buoys-cum-lighthouses throughout the system and then extending
> > > beyond, perhaps one every light-hour for starters.
> >
> >With miniaturization, putting out hundreds or thousands of
> nano-probes
> >operating in a network
>
> How do you think that network would work without the routing
> protocols and hardware I'm talking about?
I don't, but I don't consider income from spinning such technology off
to the Earth market to be the major value-adder that justifies mass
production of space probes. What the probes produce themselves (science
data) must be of marketable value to justify mass producing them.
> Command and data relay is not a spin-off. I'm not talking about
> earth-orbit. I'm saying that any mission anywhere, manned or
> unmanned, is going to need command and data relay. Whether it's that
> asteroid retrieval, your nano-probe network, or a manned
> Mars-or-Bust, every craft needs it and every craft can provide it for
> others.
>
> And your nano-probe network becomes even more economically
> justifiable if, beyond its data acquisition mission, its packet relay
> mission improves the reliability and performance of everything else
> we do in space.
Ah, so you want it to operate as a backbone for other spacecraft and
installations, as a space ISP? Okay, I get it, though in this you are
competing against a zero priced competitor: all the radio dishes that
are routinely used to directly receive data from probes.
There is also the problem of signal strength. Even with thousands of
probes in solar system space, the average space between probes will, at
minimum, be in the hundreds of thousands of miles if not millions of
miles. Receiving signals at that distance requires directional dishes
of significant size that will take up a large part of the mass of any
such probe, if not be in excess of total probe mass, even if you use a
phased array.
What dispersion distance are you expecting to be reasonable?
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
____________________________________________________
Start your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
From outlawpoet at gmail.com Sun Sep 4 17:09:34 2005
From: outlawpoet at gmail.com (justin corwin)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:09:34 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory
standpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <20050904153220.20432.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <2fb1c191ab708e25f7cc011f20412322@aol.com>
<20050904153220.20432.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <3ad827f305090410091633345@mail.gmail.com>
Sorry for the levity, my serious friends, but listening to you two
argue about this has a faint tinge of the ridiculous.
On 9/4/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> --- Robert Lindauer wrote:
> > In any case, the US economy in particular will have to
> > undergo a major change in order to survive the removal of our primary energy
> > source and it's the kind of thing it's better to prepare for earlier
> > rather than later lest we find ourselves fossil fuels one day.
>
> Your abject lack of faith in the market explains a lot why you are not a libertarian.
MIKELORREY: I find your lack of faith... disturbing.
ROBERTLINDAUER: (his eyes go wide, and he scrabbles at his throat as
the Invisible Hand closes around him)
--
apologies to Adam Smith.
--
Justin Corwin
outlawpoet at hell.com
http://outlawpoet.blogspot.com
http://www.adaptiveai.com
From mlorrey at yahoo.com Sun Sep 4 17:35:01 2005
From: mlorrey at yahoo.com (Mike Lorrey)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 10:35:01 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] OIL: Albertan tar sands, was Peak Oil?
In-Reply-To: <20050904153220.20432.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20050904173501.38861.qmail@web30713.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
http://wired-vig.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/oil.html
Wired had this article last year.
Furthermore, it turns out that the Athabascan sands are only one oil
sand deposit in Alberta:
http://www.osern.rr.ualberta.ca//Images/old/AOSD_Full.gif
In total, Albertan oil sands amount to over 2.54 trillion barrels. At a
10% recovery factor, thats 254 billion barrels, or about nine years of
total global oil supply (at an 84 million bbl/day rate of production).
With current technology, 30% should be feasible, giving 27 years, and
with nanotechnology to be developed in the next 27 years, recovery
percentage should grow to over 70% or more.
Now, lets look at its exploitation from a more realistice point of
view. Lets say oil companies invest enough to create a daily output of
6 million bbl/day.
The US imports 13.12 million bbl/day from 15 countries. Of these, I'd
say we'd want to keep importing oil from eight or nine of them,
representing 42-46% of our oil imports. Ending imports from all African
nations, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, possibly Iraq, would free us from
terrorism profiting on oil prices.
6 million bbl/day from Alberta would replace all of our imports from
troublesome nations. Currently, according to Syncrude, its recovery
costs for the heavy crude they get out of their extraction process, is
$10/bbl, far less than what they used to be, and there are technologies
for reducing this more. One alone will drop it by $1.50/bbl. So lets
assume $8.50/bbl within a few years. While its 4.5 times more than
Saudi's $2/bbl recovery costs, its still eight times less than the
current spot price, which should give ample room for refineries to
refine even this heavy crude instead of lighter crudes from foreign
sources.
At a 6 million bbl/day production rate in Alberta, the oil sands would
last 42333 days of production at a constant rate and recovering only
10% of the bitumen. That is 115 years of freedom from muslim extremist
oil per 10% of bitumen deposits extracted from Albertan oil sands at a
current dollar cost of $8.50/bbl. If we were to make an assumption that
each additional 10% would cost 50% more to extract than the previous
10%, the 70th percentile would cost $96.00/bbl to extract. The 80th
would cost $145.00, the 90th would be $217.00, and the last percentile
would cost $326 in current year dollars. The last percentile would be
extracted in 1150 years, assuming a constant rate of extraction. With a
3% average inflation rate and a 4% average growth rate, the real cost
of this oil in 1150 years should be about $0.32/bbl relative to the
current cost of living.
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
__________________________________________________
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From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 4 18:02:18 2005
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 19:02:18 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] OIL: Albertan tar sands, was Peak Oil?
In-Reply-To: <20050904173501.38861.qmail@web30713.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References: <20050904153220.20432.qmail@web30714.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
<20050904173501.38861.qmail@web30713.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/4/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> Now, lets look at its exploitation from a more realistice point of
> view. Lets say oil companies invest enough to create a daily output of
> 6 million bbl/day.
>
> The US imports 13.12 million bbl/day from 15 countries. Of these, I'd
> say we'd want to keep importing oil from eight or nine of them,
> representing 42-46% of our oil imports. Ending imports from all African
> nations, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia, possibly Iraq, would free us from
> terrorism profiting on oil prices.
>
> 6 million bbl/day from Alberta would replace all of our imports from
> troublesome nations. Currently, according to Syncrude, its recovery
> costs for the heavy crude they get out of their extraction process, is
> $10/bbl, far less than what they used to be, and there are technologies
> for reducing this more. One alone will drop it by $1.50/bbl. So lets
> assume $8.50/bbl within a few years. While its 4.5 times more than
> Saudi's $2/bbl recovery costs, its still eight times less than the
> current spot price, which should give ample room for refineries to
> refine even this heavy crude instead of lighter crudes from foreign
> sources.
>
Latest news is that 6 million bbl/day from Alberta is not expected
until 2030. Current production is around 1 million bbl/day and even by
2012 they only expect 1.6 million bbl/day.
Quote:
A 15-year-long decline in oil reserves and crude-oil prices of more
than $70 a barrel are pushing companies such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc,
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. to spend $76 billion in the next
decade to boost supplies of oil from tar sands and diesel fuel from
Qatari natural gas.
Output at the Alberta fields, which cover an area about the size of
Belgium, will probably approach 1.6 million barrels a day in 2012 and
2.8 million barrels by 2016, Drzymala said. Production costs will fall
to about $7 a barrel from $11 in the next five years because of new
technological developments, he said.
-------------------------------
I would recommend economising on your oil usage.
BillK
From spike66 at comcast.net Sun Sep 4 18:13:20 2005
From: spike66 at comcast.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 11:13:20 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <3ad827f305090410091633345@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <200509041813.j84IDMw07177@tick.javien.com>
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of justin corwin
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
> theorystandpoint ?
>
> Sorry for the levity, my serious friends, but listening to you two
> argue about this has a faint tinge of the ridiculous.
>
...
>
> MIKELORREY: I find your lack of faith... disturbing.
>
> ROBERTLINDAUER: (his eyes go wide, and he scrabbles at his throat as
> the Invisible Hand closes around him)
>
> --
>
> apologies to Adam Smith.
>
> --
> Justin Corwin
Let them say their piece Justin. I have learned
a lot by listening to this particular debate.
Here's an ethical question for you guys. Suppose
I am a skeptic regarding the sillier stuff
we hear about global warming: that it was the
cause of the snowstorms in Los Angeles this past
winter, that it makes more and bigger hurricanes,
that it causes the genitals of the children of
outer Mongolia to mature at the age of four, whatever.
Suppose I am in a position to make money off of that
hype. Would that be unethical? If I don't actually
*contribute* to the silliness, but rather take
advantage of that which is already out there, entirely
thru free market reaction. Do you see anything
wrong with that? I don't. I put it in the same
category as farm subsidies: I oppose them on
principle, but will cheerfully collect them if I
qualify, without a hint of shame. Why not? My
substantial tax bill helped pay for them, right?
Besides, global warming *might* contribute to
hurricanes, a century or two from now, so my
profiting in reducing that today is OK, right?
spike
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of justin corwin
> Sent: Sunday, September 04, 2005 10:10 AM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
> theorystandpoint ?
>
> Sorry for the levity, my serious friends, but listening to you two
> argue about this has a faint tinge of the ridiculous.
>
...
>
> MIKELORREY: I find your lack of faith... disturbing.
>
> ROBERTLINDAUER: (his eyes go wide, and he scrabbles at his throat as
> the Invisible Hand closes around him)
>
> --
>
> apologies to Adam Smith.
>
> --
> Justin Corwin
From eugen at leitl.org Sun Sep 4 19:17:10 2005
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 21:17:10 +0200
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
In-Reply-To: <200509041813.j84IDMw07177@tick.javien.com>
References: <3ad827f305090410091633345@mail.gmail.com>
<200509041813.j84IDMw07177@tick.javien.com>
Message-ID: <20050904191710.GE2249@leitl.org>
On Sun, Sep 04, 2005 at 11:13:20AM -0700, spike wrote:
> Besides, global warming *might* contribute to
> hurricanes, a century or two from now, so my
> profiting in reducing that today is OK, right?
While I'm not sufficiently interested in global
warming theory and modelling to have an informed opinion
whether we're only seeing random fluctuations (the climate has
been known to have extreme excursions, ranging from Iceball Earth
to steaming global jungle and desert) it could very well
be that the recorded water surface warming is driving
the peak wind velocities in the hurricane, and that that surface water
warming is anthropogenic. Meaning, we're already reaping the
storm we sow, paying for the damage in human lives
and cold hard cash.
It's immaterial either way, however: we now abundantly know
that climate nonlinearities are the norm, and have been
a major contributor to extinctions of multiple past
high cultures. As a precaution, we need to minimize
the amount of climate forcing (reduce anthropogenic
aerosols/greenhouse gase emission), build better climate
models and sensor networks, and prepare for potential unpleasantness
(drought/flooding, loss of crop and large scale starvation,
infrastructure damage and loss of life through catastrophic
damage events).
Would this be expensive? Probably. But the potential damage
would be far more expensive, and it's not that we don't have
the cash, given the amount of frivolous wars and other stupid
pasttimes we've been lately engaging in.
To do none of the above would be foolish, suicidally so.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1099102,00.html
Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina?
Warm ocean temperatures are a key ingredient for monster hurricanes, prompting some scientists to believe that global warming is exacerbating our storm troubles
By JEFFREY KLUGER
SUBSCRIBE TO TIMEPRINTE-MAILMORE BY AUTHOR
Posted Monday, Aug. 29, 2005
The people of New Orleans are surely not thinking about wind vortices, the coriolis effect or the dampness of the troposphere as they hunker down during hurricane Katrina this morning. They.re mostly thinking about the savage rains and 140 mph winds that have driven them from their homes. But it.s that meteorological arcana that.s made such a mess of the bayou, and to hear a lot of people tell it, we have only ourselves.and our global-warming ways.to blame.
One thing.s for sure: hurricanes were around a long, long time before human beings began chopping down rainforests and fouling the atmosphere. To get such a tempest going, you don.t need much more than ocean temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit; a cool, wet atmosphere above and a warm, wet one near the surface; and a preexisting weather disturbance with a bit of spin to it far enough from the equator (at least 300 miles) so that the rotation of the Earth amplifies the rotation of the storm. The more intense the storm becomes, the more the temperature of its core climbs, accelerating the spin, exacerbating the storm, and leading to the meteorological violence we call a hurricane. And violent it can be: The heat released in an average hurricane can equal the electricity produced by the U.S. in a single year.
So is global warming making the problem worse? Superficially, the numbers say yes.or at least they seem to if you live in the U.S. From 1995 to 1999, a record 33 hurricanes struck the Atlantic basin, and that doesn.t include 1992.s horrific Hurricane Andrew, which clawed its way across south Florida in 1992, causing $27 billion dollars worth of damage. More-frequent hurricanes are part of most global warming models, and as mean temperatures rise worldwide, it.s hard not to make a connection between the two. But hurricane-scale storms occur all over the world, and in some places.including the North Indian ocean and the region near Australia.the number has actually fallen. Even in the U.S., the period from 1991 to 1994 was a time of record hurricane quietude, with the dramatic exception of Andrew.
Just why some areas of the world get hit harder than others at different times is impossible to say. Everything from random atmospheric fluctuations to the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino can be responsible. But even if all these variables have combined to keep the number of hurricanes worldwide about the same, the storms do appear to be more intense. One especially sobering study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that hurricane wind speeds have increased about 50% in the past 50 years. And since warm oceans are such a critical ingredient in hurricane formation, anything that gets the water warming more could get the storms growing worse. Global warming, in theory at least, would be more than sufficient to do that. While the people of New Orleans may not see another hurricane for years, the next one they do see could make even Katrina look mild.
NOAA National Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams
New Orleans Hurricane Impact Study Area
BACK TO TOP PRINTE-MAILMORE BY AUTHOR
Related Stories From The TIME ARCHIVE
* HURRICANE ONSLAUGHT THE WORST STORM SEASON SINCE 1933 COULD BE THE START OF A DANGEROUS TREND [9/11/1995]
* The Great Whirlwind The weathermen first spotted the hurricane when it towered up off the West Indies, at about lat. 16? N., long. 60? W. It was a monstrous specimen.a spinning funnel of black storm with... [9/25/1944]
* Wait Till Next Time If a little heated water in the Atlantic can create Floyd, what storms will global warming bring? [9/27/1999]
14.10.2004
A Reinsurer's "Master of Disaster"
Paying out hundreds of millions in insurance claims after natural disasters each year, German reinsurer Munich Re relies on a scientist to help monitor climate and prepare the company for the future.
The "Master of Disaster" is not the name of a heavyweight wrestler: It's the unofficial title of Gerd Berz, who heads the geo-risk research department at German insuring giant Munich Re, the world's largest.
For 30 years, Berz's job has been to study meteorological and environmental climate changes for the world's largest reinsurer. His research helps Munich Re decide how to react in the marketplace.
While hurricanes, tropical storms and heat waves are known to the masses by charming names like "Isabel", "Queenie" or "Michaela", in the insurance industry they are simply referred to as "basic damage events."
Such weather-related natural catastrophes have caused $333 billion (.271 billion) in damage in the past 10 years -- six times more than 50 years ago. And costs for insured damages have risen tenfold in the same time.
One reason for the increase in natural catastrophes is global warming, which has led to a rise in weather-related catastrophes, according to scientists. Global warming is thought to be caused by increased greenhouse emissions. According to a UN report on global warming, by the end of this century the mean global temperature will have risen by somewhere between 1.5 and 6 degrees centigrade.
"That means, we'll have temperatures on the earth that mankind has never experienced, combined with a strong increase in extreme temperatures," Berz told Deutsche Welle.
Mankind to blame?
But climate change isn't the only thing responsible for the increase in damages -- mankind has had a hand in the affair as well.
A disaster today tends to hit more people because of overall greater population. The world population has more than doubled in the past fifty years and most people now live in cities -- which are not only more densely populated, but also more spread out, Berz said.
So when a "basic damage event" strikes, "the probability of it hitting a big town is getting greater and greater," he said. "In addition, many cities are particularly exposed -- think of the coastal areas. And this trend goes worldwide."
And because our society has become so reliant on infrastructure we are particularly vulnerable, Berz added.
"We are on a 24-hour drip of functioning infrastructure," Berz said. "A disturbance like a natural catastrophe, means necessities like gas, electricity or oil are disturbed, as well as traffic and communication. All these things are necessary for the economy to function, and individuals as well."
Big business
About one fifth of all weather-related damages are paid for by insurance. Some 6,000 primary insurers are then re-insured by Munich Re.
As a business, then, Munich Re says it has to take the current trend of global warming into account. One way to do this is to passing some of the risk on to the customer.
"Premiums will have to be increased relatively," Berz said. "And we have to let our customers know that we, as reinsurer, also have to take more big catastrophes into account, and thus need greater cash reserves. That is our main problem."
Not only do the reinsurers take measures to gird their wallets, they also work on the prevention angle. In order to keep damages low, Munich Re is involved in initiatives in areas from infrastructure to city planning. The company would for instance try to influence decisions on things like building codes in earthquake areas, or land-use regulations in flood zones.
Local initiatives important
Risk-analyst Berz said local initiatives are key in these areas, which can be influenced by individual cities and countries. But local action is less relevant when it comes to a world-wide issue like the weather.
A global phenomenon requires global climate protection, Berz said.
If industrial nations cut their greenhouse emissions, then developing nations will be able to expand theirs without causing an overall further imbalance.
"The industrial nations have done most of the development to this point, and have also gained the most from it," he said. "So in my opinion, we should have the responsibility of doing everything in our power not to increase development, but to stabilize it."
Author DW staff (jen)
http://www.dw-world.de ? Deutsche Welle
--
Eugen* Leitl leitl
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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From fortean1 at mindspring.com Sun Sep 4 19:27:54 2005
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 12:27:54 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD [forteana] "Dream Elementals" (toxic mold, ASP,
lucid dreaming)
Message-ID: <431B4ABA.9070205@mindspring.com>
Leslie Ellen Jones wrote:
> Don't know about the poltergeist thing, but I can say that the period
> of my life when I was having the most vivid dreams (not ASP, but
> extremely lucid) was when I was living in Oregon in a house where the
> landlady had used cheap paint in the bathroom and there was mold I
> just couldn't get rid of, even with bleach (mostly because I couldn't
> get up to get it on the ceiling without the bleach coming straight
> back down into my face). I kept pestering her to repaint the bathroom
> because I'm allergic to mold and mildew and in addition to the dreams,
> I was having constant, debilitating sinus headaches, and when she
> finally did, the headaches abated and the dreams got less intense. So
> I definitely think there's a relationship between mold and dream
> states.
Hey Leslie! Like you, I was always a dreamer and had some normal ASP
episodes but it wasn't until I worked in that government building that
the ASP went to new and horrific levels. At the time, I wondered if it
was my apartment, you know, that it was haunted.
During the time I worked there I had one cold after another and so did
everybody who worked there. It was awful. And they weren't ordinary
colds. I can remember once phoning in sick because I had such a bad
cold. I used a box of kleenex in two hours. When I look back on my dream
journals of that time - I used to write about ASP then trying to figure
out what was going on - I now see that often wrote: "I've got a
headache". Also, I remember going to my doctor because I figured out I
had a sinus infection in the sinus cavity in the forehead - I had had a
dull headache for months. She agreed and gave me antibiotics, which
interestingly helped the ASP subside.
I figure that I transferred the mold from the office to my apartment,
although I never saw mold in my apartment. Two things happened at once -
I moved out of my apartment and I left working in that building and the
ASP dramatically stopped. At the time I thought it was because my
apartment was somehow haunted.
But in retrospect, I think it was because I got away from the mold in
that office building. It was years later that I read about mold and how
it can make a person sick with sinus infections and cold-like symptoms
that aren't really a cold but an allergic reaction to mold.
So, maybe I was stoned on an LSD-type mold for those three years. I
remember a workman coming into my office one day and he took the top off
of the heating/cooling system and stuck his arm down and when he pulled
it up his arm was covered in pure black slime to his elbow. I was only
thinking about colds at the time, and I said: "No wonder I've been
sick!" He told me that there were *mushrooms* growing throughout the air
conditioning/heating system. At that time, I don't think the powers that
be really knew the effect of toxic mold on people. I've sorta been
piecing this story together for years now. Because I could never figure
out why I hit with such intense ASP dreams for a three-year period. I
thought there must be some environmental reason, whether that be
electromagnetism or even a virus that caused hyper-dreaming, as I call
it.
< %>< >
But, on the bright side, Leslie, maybe we've solved the ASP/lucid
dreaming mystery!
Kelly
--
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
Home Page: < http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html >
Sites: * Fortean Times * Mystic's Haven * TLCB *
U.S. Message Text Formatting (USMTF) Program
------------
Member: Thailand-Laos-Cambodia Brotherhood (TLCB) Mailing List
TLCB Web Site: < http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org > [Southeast Asia
veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]
From fortean1 at mindspring.com Sun Sep 4 19:29:06 2005
From: fortean1 at mindspring.com (Terry W. Colvin)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 12:29:06 -0700
Subject: [extropy-chat] FWD (TLC-Brotherhood) Disaster Aid [a military
perspective]
Message-ID: <431B4B02.1000508@mindspring.com>
Forwarding from another list...
Terry
I live in the Florida panhandle and we were the bulls-eye early on (again).
The refined prediction (12 hours out) was almost correct. Had Katrina hit
as predicted (just to the west of NO with the winds blowing due north at the
peak and falling off to westerly) it would have been less destructive
because the winds would have blown the Lake P waters away from NO instead of
towards it and probably not broken the levies. A sudden sidestep caused
Katrina to hit just east of NO, allowing the winds to push Lake P water over
and break the levies.
Had forces been positioned close, they could have been clobbered and been
part of the problem instead of part of the solution. Remember that the
hurricane force winds extended out a long way. Mobile was flattened too.
Hurricanes, like women, go where they will, and do what they want.
Hind-sight is always 20/20.
Speed of Response - Let's look at the time line here:
Sunday - Katrina hits late Sunday evening.
Monday and the winds are still strong and nobody (even the Weather Channel
and FOX) has a handle on just how bad the situation is. People are looking
and trying to assess the scope of the problem - At some point the levies
break.
Tuesday - the size is becoming apparent and the order goes to a National
Guard unit (pick any unit) to activate. This is sent to 3 or 4 technicians
who are the only full time people at the local Armory. They activate the
call roster which requires a 24 hour response. Depending on the time - the
technicians also start the loading or positioning of equipment for loading.
Wednesday - troops begin to report. They find that the loading or
positioning of equipment is underway and get involved while also
accomplishing the activation paperwork required. At best they are dead tired
by now but loaded and ready to go.
Thursday - a convoy pulls out and heads to the stricken area. Time of
arrival will depend on distance to be covered but most will do it in a day.
Otherwise they would probably be deployed on aircraft. However, not all
units have aircraft available and some will be on the road for more than one
day.
Friday - boots on the ground and relief efforts underway. Supplies and
more troops will be arriving with more following the next few days.
Obviously air assets can move much more quickly but still require ground
support, fuel, maintenance troops, spare parts and a secure landing strip.
Their time line looks much the same - only difference is their "boots on the
ground" is Thursday instead of Friday.
Unreasonable? IMHO, no.
I'd rather see everyone (on both sides) quit trying to blame someone and
realize that this thing is bigger than anyone (right or left) ever thought
it would be. This is real life, not some 2 hour disaster movie where the
hero wins through in the end. We should be encouraging the survivors and
working to get them cared for, not nit-picking or trying to cast blame.
Using a National natural disaster as an excuse to bash someone of either
party is incredibly small minded and I'm ashamed that we have "leaders" that
think it's the best thing to do.
Dusty, Jim Henthorn 21st S.O.S. Nov. '67 - May '69
Knife/Dusty NKP RTAFB
--
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
Home Page: < http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html >
Sites: * Fortean Times * Mystic's Haven * TLCB *
U.S. Message Text Formatting (USMTF) Program
------------
Member: Thailand-Laos-Cambodia Brotherhood (TLCB) Mailing List
TLCB Web Site: < http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org > [Southeast Asia
veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]
From hal at finney.org Sun Sep 4 20:56:36 2005
From: hal at finney.org (Hal Finney)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2005 13:56:36 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
theorystandpoint ?
Message-ID: <20050904205636.2E08657EF5@finney.org>
Spike asks:
> Here's an ethical question for you guys. Suppose I am a skeptic regarding
> the sillier stuff we hear about global warming: that it was the cause
> of the snowstorms in Los Angeles this past winter, that it makes more
> and bigger hurricanes, that it causes the genitals of the children of
> outer Mongolia to mature at the age of four, whatever.
>
> Suppose I am in a position to make money off of that hype. Would that
> be unethical? If I don't actually *contribute* to the silliness, but
> rather take advantage of that which is already out there, entirely thru
> free market reaction. Do you see anything wrong with that?
I think the main ethical question would be whether your actions cause
harm, from your perspective. If you don't agree with this theory about
global warming, yet you are, say, selling products that tie into the
theory somehow, then your actions would arguably increase belief in what
you view as a false idea. So I think that would be ethically wrong.
If your product or service, on the other hand, somehow would show or
demonstrate to people the falsehood of their beliefs, then your actions
would be more likely to be ethical.
Suppose your product were useless. Suppose it was a ghost repellant and
you sold it to people who foolishly believe in ghosts. Then you might
argue that you are implicitly punishing a false belief and indirectly
rewarding people who believe correctly. However I would say that you
are doing harm to people who already suffer from their false beliefs,
without really doing anything to lead them to the truth. So this would
in my opinion be unethical.
Do you have a specific idea in mind to make money off global warming
hype?
Hal
From dirk.bruere at gmail.com Sun Sep 4 23:00:00 2005
From: dirk.bruere at gmail.com (Dirk Bruere)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2005 00:00:00 +0100
Subject: [extropy-chat] LASER: DARPA's HELLADS small laser weapon makes
headway
In-Reply-To: <20050902141024.25653.qmail@web30708.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
References:
<20050902141024.25653.qmail@web30708.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Message-ID:
On 9/2/05, Mike Lorrey