The latest U.S. census numbers show Phoenix remains the country's sixth-largest city, despite speculation that it might overcome Philadelphia for that fifth-most populous spot.

Although numbers don't lie, some local leaders say the census figures don't provide the full picture, either. They believe Phoenix's population is undercounted, largely because of the city's vast Hispanic population.

There is far more at stake than bragging rights. They say an undercount would cause Phoenix to miss out on tens of millions of dollars.

"Even by a slight undercount by 1 or 2 percent of the minority population, we're talking $100 million over the course of a decade," said Seth Scott, policy director for Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton. "That has enormous implications, and that's something we need to keep in mind as we move towards the 2020 census."

The most recent census numbers show Phoenix added nearly 25,000 residents last year, making the city's population an estimated 1,513,367.

Every 10 years, the U.S. Census Bureau does a major count of the population.The agency also conducts population estimates annually. Local, state and federal agencies use those numbers to draw congressional districts and determine funding for things like educational, health and social-service programs.

Censuses have been taken as early as the early 17th century for planning purposes and became more constant in 1790. The census was designed to provide an accurate count of the population to determine how best to serve residents, said Jen'nan G. Read, associate professor of sociology and global health at Duke University.

"If we aren't actually counting the population, then we are overserving the ones we do count and underserving the ones we don't," she said.

Hispanic population

Even in the latest census count, Phoenix's Hispanic population is 41 percent, larger than most cities. Hispanics make up about 17 percent of the U.S. population.

But because Hispanics are more likely to be undercounted, policy makers and academics believe the city's population is much higher.

Experts say the leading reason some Hispanics refuse to participate in census counts is fear of deportation.

The Census Bureau estimates that the national Hispanic population was undercounted by about 1.5 percent in 2010.

If that same percentage were undercounted in Phoenix, Scott said that would translate to more than 6,000 people, according to recent numbers.

"If Phoenix's Hispanic population is undercounted at the same rate of the national average, the rough estimate of what that could mean is a loss of $16.2 million in federal and state funds annually," he said.

Lawrence Robinson, a governing-board member of Phoenix's Roosevelt Elementary School District, said he believes anxiety following the 2010 passage of Senate Bill 1070 — Arizona's immigration law that makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally — and the community's fear of enforcement could make Hispanics in his district less likely to participate in the census than Hispanics in other parts of the country.

Scott said an undercount prevents Phoenix from serving Hispanics, including those here illegally, adequately.

Economic downturn

Phoenix aggressively reached out to the Hispanic community before the 2000 census to encourage them to participate, Scott said. The goal: Let residents know the government could serve them only if it knew where the people were.

But the economic downturn made a comparable effort in 2010 impossible, he said.

"It was less aggressive in 2010 because of the budget scenarios. I think the city spent about $100,000 for census awareness in 2010," Scott said. "Of course, you could spend more and reach more people, but all governments have been strained since the economic downturn."

City officials had said Phoenix spent about twice that amount in 2000.

Robinson cites reports showing Hispanics and African-Americans, who make up the overwhelming majority of his south Phoenix district, were disproportionately affected by the Great Recession's housing and job crises. This made people more mobile as foreclosures and unemployment dictated where they could live, thus making them difficult to count, he said.

"After the downturn in 2008, you had a lot of folks who were not in the places they should have been to be counted," Robinson said. "They were in flux, and we are now beginning to see the outcome of that. There are more people living in the (school) district than we thought."

So many more people that the Roosevelt district board had to amend its budget twice this past school year to better accommodate the area's homeless and transient populations, he said.

Solutions

Scott said the city will need to prioritize funding a very significant campaign in the next few years to make sure every Phoenix resident is counted in the 2020 census.

"Phoenicians are paying their taxes, and that's why it's so important that everyone is counted so that we can get those resources back," he said. "It's a fair-share equity issue."

And Robinson said census workers need to revamp how they go about counting the city's Black population.

"I think the African-American community falls between the cracks as a smaller minority than others, so we don't do the same type of targeting," he said. "The messaging needs to be updated. We only target in traditional manners."

Robinson said he believes Phoenix's Black population is larger than the census reports because of how counters target the community. In response to reports of undercounting communities of color, the 2010 census targeted churches, charities and businesses frequented by people of color to communicate the importance of participating. Robinson believes that approach is problematic.

"To a large extent, that's a stereotypical reflection of our community folks," he said. "But there's a little bit of comfort for the census in using models that have been around since the 1960s."

Read also believes Phoenix's Hispanic community could be larger and more socioeconomically diverse than previously reported.

The number of Mexican-Americans in the U.S. legally could increase by nearly 10 percent if the census broadened its standard definition in the "Mexican" Hispanic origin question to include people who don't identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, yet who were still born in Mexico or report Mexican ancestry, she said.

Because some people associate being "Mexican" with being an illegal immigrant who is a financial drain on the government, Read's report said that many affluent and well-educated people who were born in Mexico or who have Mexican ancestry prefer to identify as White. Broadening the definition of Mexican Hispanic would expose policy makers to a much more diverse Hispanic population, she said.