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VA 2012 Senate Race

11/07/2012

It was perhaps his most important campaign promise and maybe the one that resonated the most. Senator-Elect Tim Kaine vowed from the time he announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate that he wanted to find ways to compromise.

After defeating former Senator George Allen, Kaine is now just a few months away from making good on that promise.Given his emphasis on compromise, it was no surprise that Kaine focused quite a bit on that topic in his post-election press conference.

Here is my story for NBC12:

RICHMOND (WWBT)- One of the big winners in last night's election was former governor and
now Senator-Elect Tim Kaine. Kaine is ready to head to Washington and forge
something that hasn't been seen much in that town as of late compromise.

Dressed casually and with a voice a
touch hoarse after more than a year on the campaign trail, Tim Kaine told
reporters he is ready to go work.

"The thing we most need to in
both houses of congress is really commit to compromise and working together,"
he said.

Kaine, who edged out former Senator George Allen,
in part because of that bi-partisan message, said with issues like the looming
fiscal cliff and sequestration battles ahead, compromise is needed now more
than ever.

It is something he was able to do as
governor.

"We disagreed plenty,” Kaine said
of his dealings with republicans in the Virginia General Assembly. “But we
maintained the relationship and the friendship that if we disagreed about
something today we could find something to agree about tomorrow."

Virginia's newest senator enters a
body facing historic levels of dysfunction. It is an atmosphere that despite
last night's election, is not that much different.

The man who started his career as a Richmond
City Councilman is hopeful a few new faces can have a positive impact.

“There is nothing that magic about it,”
he said. “We just need to add more voices to that common ground caucus that is
what it is going to take."

Kaine is hoping to join that group of
senators looking to work with the other party, but his new partner Mark Warner
may be getting out.

09/27/2012

With just a little more than a month
to go and all three presidential and one vice presidential debates still
ahead of us, a new poll conducted by Suffolk University shows the race
for the White House and U.S. Senate remains a virtual tie.

Several swing state polls show President Barack Obama begining to open up a sizeable lead, but here in Virginia it is still too close to call:

The
poll of 600 likely voters was conducted between September 24-26th.
Enough time for the full impact of the covert 47% video to have the
opportunity to have an impact on people's decision. Despite the beating Mitt Romney has taken over the video, his standing in Virginia remains unchanged.

The poll has a 4% margin of error, meaning that the numbers are basically a tie.

And while the race for president is "basically" a tie, the U.S. Senate race actually is a tie:

A few recent polls showed the potential for Tim Kaine to perhaps pull ahead in this race, but our survey shows that he and George Allen
remain locked in a razor thin battle. While the polls shows that most
Virginians know both Allen and Kaine, there is still an astounding 12%
of voters who have yet to make up their mind. Only 7% of respondents to
the survey said they were undecided about the race for president.

You can see the full poll on Suffolk University's web site.

Here is pollster David Paleologos putting the numbers into perspective:

Here is my story on the poll for NBC12:

We are getting a better idea of just
how close the race for president is in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NBC12 partnered with Suffolk University
to conduct a poll on the election.

Most swing state polls show
President Barack Obama opening up a sizable lead, but here in Virginia the race
is a virtual tie. In Ohio, Florida and Colorado
polls show President Obama taking control. But a new Suffolk University/ NBC12
poll shows that is not the case in Virginia.

In our poll President Obama
is holding on to a slim 2 point lead. Roughly 7% of Virginia voters are still
undecided and pollster David Paleologos believes the president still has work
to do.

"I can tell you with a high
degree of confidence this is a close race, this is not a landslide for Barack
Obama," he said.

But the news for Mitt Romney
is not all good.

Votes still like President
Obama more than they do the republican nominee. More than 52% view Obama favorably,
while only 42% feel that way about Romney. More voters have a negative opinion
of Romney than a positive one.

According to Paleogolos,
being liked has never been the president's problem.

“People are saying
they like Barack Obama more than Mitt Romney,” he explained.

It is Obama’s work as
president that some aren't comfortable with. In fact 48% of the respondents in
this poll disapprove of the way obama is doing his job. Only 46% believe he is
doing a good job.

Things are even tighter in
the race for U.S. Senate.

Our numbers show Tim Kaine
and George Allen locked at 44% each.

The favorability numbers
for the two former governors is roughly the same, both in the 40% range.

Palegolos believes both
races could come down to turnout.

“Anybody can win this
state, and there is not going to be a landslide win in either race,” he said. “Either the U.S. Senate race or the
Presidential race.”

09/20/2012

Rarely do you leave a debate wondering
what the long term impact might be. Usually you get a pretty good
impression right away. But today's NBC4/Fairfax County Chamber of
Commerce U.S. Senate debate was a tangle between two Virginia political
titans that will take some time to see how it plays out.

(Moderator David Gregory with Tim Kaine and George Allen)

Tim Kaine and George Allen
sparred on defense cuts, the economy, issues born out of the
presidential race and their own careers in Washington and Richmond.
However in a debate that was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C.
metro and in the middle of the day, it is the coverage of the event that
will have the lasting impression and Tim Kaine had a moment in the
debate that republicans are already promising to bring up from here on
out.

It was a discussion on tax policy,
based on GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney's comments about 47% of
Americans who don't pay federal income tax. Moderator David Gregory
pressed Kaine on his personal views of who should pay income taxes.

Here is a transcript of the exchange:

(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you
believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?

KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I
mean, the statistics that have come out..

GREGORY: I'm asking about federal
income taxes.

KAINE: I would be open to a proposal
that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.

Kaine went on to layout the specifics of his tax policy. Later in the
post debate gaggle he explained what he meant. He said he wasn't calling
for a minimum across the board tax level, but instead showing that he
was open to any possible suggestions for improving tax policy.

Here are his full remarks from the gaggle. (I apologize for our unfortunate camera position)

Later Kaine senior adviser Mo Elleithee defended his bosses his position in a lengthy blog post. Saying in his opening line that the Kaine team was "pumped" about his performance.

Not surprisingly, republicans aren't impressed. They quickly posted the debate moment online and fired off a fundraising e-mail based on Kaine's comments.

Allen came to the post debate gaggle prepared to double down on Kaine's comments which play right into the GOP's claim that Kaine is a tax raiser:

It is doubtful that this relatively
minor slip by Kaine will alter the course of this race dramatically.
However, recent polls showed the direction of the race was heading in
the democrat's favor. This slip will offer Allen's team more fodder on
the tax issue, an issue republican's generally focus on and could swing undecided voters. A pool that in this race in particular is smaller and smaller.

Here is my full wrap on the debate for NBC12:

It doesn't get any bigger than this.
Virginia's race for the U.S. senate is one of the most watched in the country.

Thursday, two commonwealth
political titans, George Allen and Tim Kaine, met in their first televised
debate. The race was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C. metro area and in
the middle of the day, so the vast majority of likely voters didn't see what
happened.

Instead they will be left
with the lingering sound bites, and Tim Kaine gave one that republicans are
already pouncing on.

It was a debate filled with plenty of
substance. Allen and Kaine giving their take on things like defense cuts.

"He (Allen) is on more sides of
this than a Rubix Cube," said Kaine while discussing Allen’s position on
the congressional showdown over the sequestration budget.

On foreign policy, Allen was critical
of the Obama administration and talked tough on the situation in the Middle
East.

"The biggest threat I think is Iran,”
Allen said. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons that needs to be prevented."

But it was a comment Kaine made on
taxes inside that Capital One building in McLean that Allen was quick to pounce
on afterward. Here is an exact transcript:

(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you
believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?

KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I
mean, the statistics that have come out..

GREGORY: I'm asking about federal
income taxes.

KAINE: I would be open to a proposal
that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.

Kaine made the point after a lengthy
discussion born out of Mitt Romney's comments about 47 percent of Americans not
paying federal income tax. Allen wasn't surprised.

"It is typical of Tim Kaine,”
Allen said. “As I mentioned his record
is one of always looking to raise taxes."

Kaine argued that he wasn't calling
for a minimum across the board tax, but rather showing that he is open to any
suggestions.

"I don't think it should be that
newsworthy that a Senator would consider what a colleague proposes," Kaine
said with a chuckle.

A characteristic the democrat believes
is lacking in his opponent.

"We need more bridge builders,”
Kaine said during the debate. “We need more people who know how to listen and
find common ground."

08/08/2012

The numbers from a new Quinnipiac CBS News/New York Times poll are hard to argue with. At first glance it appears to be all good news for Barack Obama and his friend Tim Kaine.

Obama leads republican Mitt Romney 49- 45.

Kaine leads George Allen 48-46, a number that keeps the race too close to call.

But also polled in this report is Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell whose approval rating has slipped, but remains above 50%. He still ranks among the most popular governors in America.

Wednesday following a press conference on college tuition McDonnell played the role of attack dog, going after a new Obama welfare policy.

"It could be because of this Obama economy and an 8.3% unemployment rate," McDonnell said of the plan. "People can't find work."

McDonnell continues to be a go-to surrogate and this poll could provide more proof that he would be a quality running mate for Romney.

Among independent voters, Quinnipiac found that McDonnell enjoys a 36 point net positive approval rating. Female voters in Virginia, which is considered to be a weakness for the governor, approve of him 8 points more than then even President Obama.

And the poll revealed that 44% of republicans are more excited to vote than in 2008, while only 33% of democrats are looking forward to getting to the polls.

An analysis of McDonnell's poll numbers by the respected New York Times pollster Nate Silver revealed that McDonnell has the second best chance of any V.P. prospect to improve Romney's chances of winning.

Speaking of the Silver piece. It has an interesting and unique breakdown of the impact a V.P. prospect could have on a the race.

Instead of just looking a raw poll that asks "would you be more inclined to vote if?" Silver uses a number of factors and a ton of polling data to run tens of thousands of simulations that could provide some insight into what a pick could mean.

I've said all along that this very small group of public polls that ask that very specific question are only a tiny part of a immense amount of data the Romney campaign must be compiling to see who would help the ticket the best. It is an analysis like Silver's that might give us some insight into the process.

07/12/2012

It what will be part of an explosive issue in the 2012 U.S. Senate race from Virginia, a Richmond Circuit Court Judge ruled Thursday that Jens Soering, a German man convicted of killing his girlfriend's parents in a gruesome 1985 murder, can stay in a Virginia prison.

In late 2009, then Governor Tim Kaine issued a transfer of Soering into German custody. Kaine was in the last months of his gubernatorial term and Bob McDonnell had already been elected as Virginia's next governor.

Shortly after McDonnell's inauguration, he and the newly elected Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, went to work to revoke the Kaine transfer of Soering, concerned that he would serve only a small part of his double life sentence in his native country.

Friday, a Richmond Circuit Court Judge ruled that McDonnell had the legal right to revoke that transfer. Back in 2010, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder informed Virginia authorities that they would not challenge the transfer revocation.

Soering's legal options are not exhausted quite yet. He still has the option of appealing this decision to the Virginia Supreme Court. However, with the Circuit Court's clear statement on the issue and the Federal Government's desire to not intervene his options are running out.

That leaves the impact it will have on Tim Kaine. Kaine has repeatedly tried to explain his decision to allow Soering to return to Germany. His main argument has centered around a desire to relieve Virginia taxpayers of the expense of detaining Soering for the rest of his life. It is an argument Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli doesn't buy.

According to Cuccinelli, Soering would've had the opportunity to be released from prison in Germany in 2 and half years. If things had gone in that direction, Soering could have been in a position to petition for his release right now.

Cuccinelli said that he believes that this issue should be front and center in the race for Senate from Virginia.

"This is a terribly unexplained exercise of the authority that he (Kaine) had at the time," Cuccinelli said.

The Attorney General told me that he believes that the General Assembly should consider legislation that would limit the ability of the Executive Branch to use their broad powers after the final election before their term ends.

Governor McDonnell, who is responsible for revoking the Soering transfer, was gratified by the court's decision.

"Jens Soering committed a heinous and gruesome crime when he killed two innocent Virginians," said McDonnell spokesman Tucker Martin. "The Governor believes he must serve his full sentence in the Commonwealth of Virginia."

The question now is how big this issue plays in November for Kaine. There are reports that behind the scenes republican media experts are preparing a significant ad campaign centered around the attempted Soering transfer. Already the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is working to draw focus to the issue.

“Now that a judge has ruled on this matter, it’s even more important for Tim Kaine to finally step forward and be honest with the citizens of Virginia about his decision to help a convicted double-murderer in the final hours of his Administration," said Brian Walsh a NRSC spokesman.

Cuccinelli told me he isn't sure what documents could even be produced that could explain Kaine's thought process. He also called on Kaine to provide a more thorough explanation.

"There is no reasonable motive," said Cuccinelli. "What could you possibly be trying to accomplish?'

I have a request into the Kaine campaign on the court's decision and a response to Cuccinelli's critisim. I will update you when I have more.