Whether Gay opts out or not and whether he stays with the Raps or not depends on several criteria.

Opting out of 19 million is pretty hard. He probably would opt out if he plays really well, improving all his statistics, especially his shooting percentages. In that case he should become very valuable on the market and he could collect a very nice long term contract (Raps or elsewhere) in the range of 15 million and above per year.

If his stats should remain the same or become even worse, he would probably consider collecting the 19 million and risk a possible, but unlikely injury over the following season before becoming a free agent. This would give him another chance to improve his value over that season before definetly signing a new longterm contract as a free agent. Of course, by then he would very likely be traded by Masai.

Whether Gay stays in Toronto willingly depends on how this team will do this year. If they improve a lot and make the playoffs, Rudy himself plays really well and there are still more indications of future improvement (team wise) over subsequent seasons, then Rudy will be interested to stay. He might even agree to opt out and resign longterm with the Raps for a more reasonable salary at about 13 to 15 million per. Of course Masai could trade him anytime before this season's February trade deadline, if the results up to that point warrant a tank job or simply a change of personnel.

In any case, I think Masai will be pretty clear and rather strict with Rudy when it comes to the options. I guess that at very least by the February trade deadline Masai will make sure that Gay indicates him as to what his intentions are and based on that Masai will either trade him or, if Rudy wants to stay in Toronto, Masai will lay out a rather strict plan for him. Which probably means that they wish Rudy to opt out and sign a new more reasonable but a longterm contract after this upcoming season.

The general feeling that I get from Masai is that he is not very happy about the Rudy Gay situation (who is VERY happy with it?). This will lead him to playing hard ball with Gay but in a very patient manner. He will not rush any decisions. He probably likes Gay the player, but not his contract situation, so he'll act with caution and with the best interest of the team. Whether we retain Gay as a player or not, I trust Masai to make the correct decision in this case. He will either opt for tanking and trade Gay for expiring scrubs, or he will get us somebody that fits better our team, or he will bring back Gay for a more reasonable price. Most of it depends on the results of the upcoming season.

I dont think he will opt out its a lot of money it would be so dumb to walk away rom it all what is it 19 mil? If I were Gay Id stay get paid see where the franchise is after and choose to extend for good money with them cause undoubtedly right now Rudy is the guy and in current plans is the franchise so I dont see why he would. If Raptors do turn the corner its his team, and why would he leave lest traded out.

How Rudy plays may essentially shape the direction of our team. If Rudy underachieves, my money's on the Raptors going into a rebuild at the break. If he breaks out, the Masai will probably look to continue building this roster.

My biggest problem with Rudy is that from an incentive standpoint, he's lose-lose. If he plays great, he'll have a lot of incentive to shop himself around next year (he's hardly tied to Toronto, after all) and try to land another crazy deal, and can probably manage something at least Josh Smith-sized in that instance. If he plays at the level he was at last year, we've got a $10M player at best taking up $20M of cap space.

One good scenario is that if he does play well this year, he doesn't have to opt out to get a longer deal, so long as the Raps want to keep him. If he agrees to an extension, he can sign an extension of 4 years (this one counts) where the first season is his current PO salary and the final two are whatever they negotiate. For example, he can keep his $19.3 M and also sign on for 12M per season for the following two seasons. That's effectively the same as a 14.5M per year deal for 3 years, in terms of overall pay. Raps would be pretty stuck next summer in terms of paying taxes, but if the team is playing well, maybe that's not a concern.

Even though he is spending a lot and doesn't mind paying taxes, it's not like he's just throwing away his money. In a short period of time the brand of the Nets has grown immensly and if he would sell the team (coupled with his interest in the stadium) he would get a lot more than when he bought the team. He paid 200 mil. and Forbes now values the team at 530 mil. . Most likely it will increase in value again this year. On top of that he's probably making good use of the business opportunities having the Nets creates for them.

If Rudy decides to opt-out then that is an indication to me that he wants to play elsewhere. Why else drop a $19mil paycheck? It's unlikely he will get another years salary like that anywhere. If he intends on staying then opt-in for the last year and then sign an extension...doesn't that make the most sense from Rudy's perspective?

I would assume MU will have a good idea of Rudy's intentions going forward prior to the deadline and if he even gets a hint Rudy may opt-out I think he will trade him. At least, thats what I hope will happen if there is ANY evidence he will opt-out. Don't pussyfoot around, get rid of the guy if he isn't absolutely sure he wants to spend another 3-4 years here.

Of course, if he is willing to opt-out and resign another deal that will free up some cash for the Raps to bring in another important piece, well, that would be the ideal situation.

All of this obviously depends on how this season goes for both Rudy and the team.

Gay will almost assuredly exercise his option. He will get a 4-year deal at a minimum from some team and he will ensure himself more guaranteed money.

As for people who think Toronto will sign him to some 4/40 deal, I do not think that is possible if he opts out. My understanding is that if Gay opts out and Toronto wants to sign a long term deal with him, the new deal must be for a minimum of two years (guaranteed and no options) and the first year salary must be no less than Gay would have made in the option year (i.e. at least $19 million). I isn't clear to me if subsequent years can be for less money but I don't think that can be done.

If Rudy decides to opt-out then that is an indication to me that he wants to play elsewhere. Why else drop a $19mil paycheck? It's unlikely he will get another years salary like that anywhere. If he intends on staying then opt-in for the last year and then sign an extension...doesn't that make the most sense from Rudy's perspective?

He will get more guaranteed money if he opts out. Think of it this way: he can get $19 million guaranteed for year one or he can get something like $50 million for years one - four. If he blows out his knee in year one, he gets the $19 million but he leaves $30 million on the table.

A player of his caliber can secure a long-term deal (likely at least 4yr/60M). You don't pass that up for a one season cash in. Having a guaranteed long-term income is more important which is why we ROUTINELY see stars opt out in the last year of their deal (if they have a player option/ETO).

He will get more guaranteed money if he opts out. Think of it this way: he can get $19 million guaranteed for year one or he can get something like $50 million for years one - four. If he blows out his knee in year one, he gets the $19 million but he leaves $30 million on the table.

Players always go for the guaranteed money. Smarter.

I think i understand, however, the idea of guaranteed money is then based on the possibility of obtaining an injury during his contract year, thus reducing his value in the longer term? The way I'm looking at it is, he can opt in and get his 19 mil, then test out FA and he will probably still get a deal in the 12-15 mil per range. Thats still 4-7 mil more for the opt in year. However, if what you say is true in your previous post, then the better thing for him to do is opt-out, if of course, a re-signing with the Raps means that he has to get the 19 mil, at least for the first year of the extension.

I think i understand, however, the idea of guaranteed money is then based on the possibility of obtaining an injury during his contract year, thus reducing his value in the longer term? The way I'm looking at it is, he can opt in and get his 19 mil, then test out FA and he will probably still get a deal in the 12-15 mil per range. Thats still 4-7 mil more for the opt in year. However, if what you say is true in your previous post, then the better thing for him to do is opt-out, if of course, a re-signing with the Raps means that he has to get the 19 mil, at least for the first year of the extension.

This year's prime example was Iggy, who opted out of $16M, to sign for 4 years at $12M I think. I don't think the Raps would have to pay the $19M if he opted out and re-signed with the Raps. Maybe that would be the case if they extended him before he opted out?