A persistent area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70 percent chance of becoming the Atlantic season's first tropical system by Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said Friday. The low is moving west-northwest toward the Mexican coast, and most forecast models suggest it will continue in that direction.

In an unscheduled forecast released around 10 a.m., the hurricane center said the low in the Bay of Campeche became better defined Friday morning, though thunderstorms around it remained "poorly organized." The center raised the probability of a tropical system forming from 50 percent to 70 percent over the next 48 hours.

Another update at 1 p.m. kept the same 70 percent probability for the next 48 hours, though it indicated that thunderstorms around the area had diminished in recent hours. A "hurricane hunter" airplane that was scheduled to investigate the area Friday afternoon has been delayed, the center said in its 1 p.m. update.

Forecast models Friday, June 6, suggested the area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is expected to continue moving west-northwest. South Florida Water Management District

"Whether a tropical depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days," the center said.

The center said the rest of the Gulf of Mexico was enjoying clear skies thanks to an elongated area of high pressure that extended over most of the central and eastern Gulf.

The next scheduled tropical weather update is to be released at 7 p.m.

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This story was updated to include information from the 1 p.m. forecast.