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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum Tied In Recent Super Tuesday Polls

The latest polls going into Super Tuesday show Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in a statistical tie for the key battleground states of Ohio and Tennessee. The latest CNN Ohio Republican Presidential Primary poll has both Romney and Santorum with 32% of the vote. A Public Policy Poll gives Santorum a slight 34% to 29% edge over Romney in Tennessee while another poll has the candidates separated by only one percent in that state.

2012 Super Tuesday GOP races on March 6 are proportional races with
the exception of the Virgina Republican primary which converts from
proportional to winner-take-all if a candidate captures more than 50% of
the vote. So it is unlikely that any candidate could claim wholly
'winning' a state with the exception of Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday.

Decisive momentum has eluded Romney despite heavy spending by the Romney
campaign and pro-Romney Super PAC early in the 2012 Republican
Presidential race. While Romney is expected to grab around 200
delegates, that is still not enough to claim momentum over Santorum on
an election day where two of the four candidates are running in their
home states (Romney - Massachusetts, Newt Gingrich - Georgia).

Santorum and Romney are battling for the delegate rich states of Ohio
(66 delegates) and Tennessee (58 delegates). Recent polls show Romney
and Santorum in a dead heat of 32% to 34% in Ohio and 30% to 34% in
Tennessee, respectively. Such a tight spread in polling numbers could
also mean a tie in the amount of delegates awarded to those candidates
in those states. Santorum holds a commanding lead in Oklahoma (43
delegates) while Romney is expected to take his home state of
Massachusetts (41 delegates).

Paul and Romney are battling for the caucus states and Virginia
primary. Recent polls have not been conducted for the caucus states,
but it is expected that Paul will do well because he focused his
campaign in those states. However, it is a different story in the
Virginia primary where Paul would have to stop Romney from getting 50%
of the vote in order to deny Romney the 43 winner-take-all delegates
from that state.

Romney and Santorum are neck-and-neck for second place in Gingrich's
home state of Georgia where Gingrich has always maintained a sizable
lead. The Gingrich campaign is also influencing the amount of delegates
that Santorum and Romney would be able to garner from the Ohio,
Tennessee, and Oklahoma Republican primaries.

Below are the Super Tuesday states' delegate counts. Recent polling
percentages from various polls for each race are listed along with a
projected amount of delegates each candidate will take based on recent
polls. In states where recent polls have not been conducted, the
projection is based on recent respective regional performances by the
candidates in earlier primary and caucus elections.