Why the Giants will beat the 49ers, barely, maybe, possibly

Yes, I’m fully aware that I’m predicting that the Giants will become the first team with a negative points-differential in the regular season to get to the Super Bowl.

(And only the third 7-loss team in the Super Bowl.)

I’m a big proponent of the points-differential stat as a general overview of a team’s relative strength, always have been, always will.

I must admit the Giants’ minus-6 total made me re-think my Giants pick in tomorrow’s game.

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But you have to take each game separately, have to find the stats and factors you believe are most significant, and I think the Giants are a team capable of major transformation from one stage to the next.

The -6 sure didn’t stop me from believing the Giants would beat the Packers (+201) in Green Bay and it didn’t stop me from picking the NYGs over the 49ers (+151), either, though I am much less sure of this one.

It’s sort of like the 2007 Warriors–if I may mix sports drastically–who in no way statistically matched up with Dallas that season, but still lined up and whacked ’em in the playoffs.

You pick the game in front of you, and I just think the Giants are a unique team, for a lot of reasons, hopefully explained in the following column.

By the way, the closest to a negative-differential Supe team was Arizona in the 2008 season, when the Cardinals were +1 and ended up taking the Super Bowl to the wire vs. Pittsburgh.

OK, here are three games (and a bonus fourth game) that helped decide this pick for me…

* 49ers 27, Giants 20 at Candlestick on Nov. 13: The 49ers and Giants were a fairly even match-up in their first meeting this season, and in fact, the Giants had the yardage advantage, 395-305.

The key, as always for the 49ers: Two big turnovers, including Carlos Rogers’ interception of Eli Manning in the fourth quarter deep in NYG territory in tie game; next play, Kendall Hunter ran it into the end zone, putting the 49ers up 27-13 20-13.

The Giants didn’t have Ahmad Bradshaw in that game and still managed to run the ball OK. The 49ers lost Frank Gore early, and didn’t get much of a run game established.

Both RBs are relatively healthy for this one. If you put these two teams on the field 10 times, I think they’d split them down the middle. The 49ers won the last one… so maybe the breaks will go the NYGs’ way this time.

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* 49ers 19, Seattle 17 in Seattle on Dec. 24: The 49ers have had it toughest against teams ready to get as physical as necessary–and the Seahawks, who aren’t as physical as the NYGs, almost had enough to win this.

Full credit to the 49ers for pulling this out and saving their crucial home-field advantage over New Orleans. But the trouble the 49ers’ offense faced in Seattle could be magnified on Sunday vs. the NYG D.

* Giants 29, NY Jets 14 at MetLife Stadium on Dec. 24: The Jets were starting to spiral, but they’re still a physical defense that in some ways is parallel to the 49ers. And the Giants began their late-season run by popping a few huge plays to tilt this game.

* Giants 37, Green Bay 20 at Green Bay on Jan. 15: A dismantling, and showcase for the New York play-makers, proving the Giants can play anywhere, vs. anybody.

The 49ers’ defense is far superior than Green Bay’s, but it might not take as many big plays to win this one.

And, just for theater…

* Giants 15, 49ers 13 on Jan. 20, 1991: My final-score pick in the teens is a nod to the spirit of this game, though this time I think it’ll be the 49ers settling for all the field goals and the Giants scoring the TDs.

That game turned on Roger Craig’s fumble in the fourth quarter, with the 49ers ahead, and it is memorable for the Leonard Marshall hit that knocked Joe Montana out of his final 49ers start.

—–the column (UNEDITED VERSION)/

The rain will fall, the wind will blow, the 49ers and Giants will hydroplane across the field like boats in the Everglades, and yet this game will not be decided by any of that.

This will be your father’s kind of NFC Championship Game, not Mother Nature’s.

Ultimately, I believe it will be a New York Giants’ kind of game. Not won easily and not decided until the very end, but it will be won by the things they do best.

Of course, I’m not saying it’s impossible for the 49ers to beat the New York Giants on Sunday at Candlestick Park, for a berth in Super Bowl XLVI.

No question, the wham-bam, opportunistic 49ers are built for all longitudes and magnitudes.

And the 49ers and Alex Smith are immensely tough to beat in the stadium Jim Harbaugh calls “a fortress.”

They haven’t lost at Candlestick Swamp since mid-September (seven victories in a row) and my head is still wobbly from last Saturday’s chaos-catharsis.

But every game, especially the biggest ones, is about the match-ups, and I think the Giants are specifically set up to win on Sunday.

They have the victory over top-seeded Green Bay, the momentum, the playoff-tested players, the explosive set of receivers, and the best front four in football.

Those are things that win playoff games, and I believe they will win this one.

To be clear, I don’t think either team will falter in the wet weather or at any other trouble spot.

Both teams are tough-minded; both can hold up under wild environmental developments—the Giants’ pass game might be affected by wind and rain, but it’s not like they play their home games in a dome and can’t adapt to the outdoors.

Neither team will falter on Sunday. But one of them will be stronger than the other.

And I think the Giants’ combination of quarterback Eli Manning throwing to receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham is the single way the 49ers can and will be beat.

Flashback: In the 2007 season, Manning didn’t get hot until the last regular-season game. But he put up a 100-plus rating in that game then had back-to-back spectacular games in the playoffs on the way to a Super Bowl MVP performance.

This season, Manning has been hugely productive throughout, but has been truly great starting with—you guessed it–the final regular-season game.

And Manning has put up back-to-back 100-plus ratings in playoff victories over Atlanta and Green Bay.

The 49ers D just got done beating Drew Brees and the Saints, but they gave up 472 yards in that game and managed to survive by creating three of the 49ers’ five overall forced turnovers. (The special teams forced two others.)

That’s a high-wire act that may or may not be sustained—essentially, if Manning and the Giants avoid turnovers, the 49ers will be in some trouble.

Meanwhile, this all could be decided by the 49ers offense.

Key stat: When the 49ers have gained 234 yards or more, they’re 12-0 this season; when they’ve gained 233 or less, they’re 2-3, with both victories coming in the first three weeks of the season.

In the late-season losses at Baltimore and Arizona, the 49ers offense just couldn’t move the ball, which put enormous pressure on the defense to be perfect. And it wasn’t.

I think that could happen again Sunday.

Now I know I’m not the only one predicting this and everybody can understand that the 49ers find extra motivation in hearing the broad sweep of prognostication against them.

Just like happened last weekend (though I personally picked the 49ers to beat the Saints).

“I was very happy, especially how everybody picked the Saints to beat us,” tailback Frank Gore said Friday, “how we came out and showed everybody what type of team we are.

“A lot of people talk about other people’s offenses, (how) we couldn’t match up with them. We showed we could go toe-to-toe with them.”

The 49ers offense could do it again Sunday against the Giants defense, which had its share of struggles this season.

In November at Candlestick, the 49ers picked up 305 yards and beat the Giants 27-20.

Both teams are different from then, and both teams are better from then.

I just think the Giants are better in the key areas—running back Ahmad Bradshaw is healthy, and the defense has come together since then.

I think the 49ers have had an incredible season. I think they would be a worthy NFC Super Bowl representative. I just don’t think will work out that way when this game plays out in old-fashioned style.

Prediction: Giants 17, 49ers 16.

Tim Kawakami

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Give me a break!!! Im not Alex Smiths number one supporter, but he has done everything asked of him. As the saying goes he aint chopped liver. The Media is literally gushing over Manning like he is better than Brees Rodgers and Brady …horse pucky! The last time i saw this kinda BS was with Dan Marino. We know what Ronnie Lott et al did with that nonsense. I m hoping Alex wins to show you media types “teams” win superbowls ! Underdogs are liked by people because they are more like us, guys who take crap from others who dont know us , but we keep on going anyway, proving we dont have to be the glitz , promise making BS loud mouths to be good at what we do! Go Alex Go 49ers!!!!

Gman 4real

22 ny 13 sf

http://oneflapdown77.com Big Flavor

Who knows how you feel? Everything you write starts and ends with how much it can potentially inflame. You might think the NIners will beat them 30-16 (as I do) but you’d never write that because it wouldn’t get you the venom spew from your blogger community that is coming in 3…2….1

Jeremy

How come it’s all about who the Giants beat and not who the Niners beat? Bengals, Steelers, Lions, Saints, Giants all playoff teams beaten by the Niners. The only games they lost on fluke plays(fake fg TD called back, chop block, OT 8th string WR breaks free) and the big one vs the Ravens they had 3 days to prepare for and a cross country trip.

The teams are very evenly matched and could go either way. The Giants though havent beat a team that executes like the Niners all season. Beating a garbage Falcons team that is always bad on the road and a Packers team that couldn’t catch, throw, tackle, rush the passer, or throw doesn’t impress me.

Rev

Who’s the tool who wrote this article?

The weather plays wonderfully into the 49ers favor (especially with the running), to the point where it could wind up being a blowout.

Frank Gore, Carlos Rogers and Crabtree should all have great days.

GO NINERS!

prima facie

Niners 17, Giants 14 … but that’s with plenty of “if”s.

If … the 49ers can get a couple of red-zone touchdowns.
If … they get a couple of Giants turnovers.
If … they get physical on Eli Manning like they did on Drew Brees.

In other words … if they play well.

And, really, that’s the “duh” factor in picking any game. The team that plays well will win. My gut says they will.

Then again, I’m a 49ers fan. I’m used to having the rug pulled out from under me, from the Nolan-Erickson-Singletary era back to the Joe Thomas debacle to Preston “Effing” Riley and beyond.

Gordo

Ahmad Bradshaw is a big time fumbler. Did you account for that? If niners get pressure, niners by 10.

http://www.inewgames.com Dale in UK

It pains me to say this, but the Giants look like last year’s Packers, doing just enough to get in the playoffs and getting hot at just the right time. Does that mean they will win? I hope they don’t, but I think they will. I hope that TK’s negative column will inspire the Niners, and my prediction, too. I think it will be a tough game, close. But the Giants will win. (This is one time I hope I’m wrong.)

John W

You seem to forget that the Niners are particularly adept at stopping the run. You also, I’m guessing for the sake of insulting your audience’s intelligence, ignored the fact that the Niners tended to successfully gamble many of their interceptions, successfully.

The Giants looked like the Packers? They faced a team that had a suspect defense and that had feasted on a bunch of oil cans for most of the season.

A negative column from you is pretty much what I and many of the readers have come to expect. No credit for the coaching staff, Tim? Including the playoffs, they seemed to have planned well for the teams they faced and the Giants shouldn’t be any different.

In all the time that has passed, the Niners have also learned more about themselves and their opponent. You have obviously learned nothing, except to parrot the other sports writers around the country.

Big Suede

I think TK and most of the east coast media are overthinking tomorrow’s game. The giants were handed the victory last week. Aaron Rogers was off, the receivers dropped passes left and right.

I really see a blowout win by the niners tomorrow. And it will not be at all shocking— because it was a 13-3 home team playing a 9-7 team who had to travel twice on a short week. Keep it simple, because it is.

Roger Ramjet

It’s not like the 49ers missed out on a few breaks against the Giants in their first meeting. A forced fumble and recovery by the 49ers defense was disallowed because they had ‘stopped forward progress’. Yeah, right. And Goldson came within a whisker of getting a big interception as well. Smith is playing at a higher level now than he was in their first meeting, which was unique up to that point because it featured a lot more passing than usual.

I actually watched the Giants-Packers game, and the Packers made countless unforced errors, making the Giants defense look better than it was. However, they did dominate a pretty good Atlanta offense as well.

That being said, the Giants are a better team than the one the 49ers sent into a 4 game losing spiral. But the Alex Smith should be brimming with confidence now compared to their first meeting as well. It should be a tough, hard fought game, but I expect the 49ers to prevail in a close game, along the lines of 23-20.

Niners in 2012

Well this time you can’t complain about the onslaught of tweets you get when the Niners win. Don’t snap back at them. Just take it like a champ, Timmy.

Mano de Nada

I dunnoh NYG has been hot and cold all season, and while Eli can be clutch, he’s hardly always clutch – he’s made plenty of mistakes this season and in his career. He can be harried into bad decisions (and well maybe karma dictates he takes the payback for the Montana hit).

Never thought I’d write this but Alex Smith has been the more consistent, reliable QB this season. He’s playing at home and the Niners have the better D. 9x outta 10 that wins, and that’s my guess for tomorrow too.

That Man

Bring it TK. It is way more fun to bash you than agree with you. Niners win running away, and we get to string you out for jumping off the bandwagon of a magical team. I thought you would have been able to recognize these kind of teams after seeing what the SF Giants did in 2010.
These Giants have played 3 or 4 good games in a row. Whoop de doo. The Saints had scored 45 3 games in a row, winning 9 in a row before coming to the ‘stick. And they got mowed down, just like the overrated Giants will. They aren’t the Packers from last year, who were never down by a TD the entire season. This is a team that got crushed by the turrible Redskins in a must win game in week 15. Willis, the smith Bros, and Bowmann eat Eli alive.
30-23 Niners

Kevin

I hope the Niners ban you from the stick! Stop being a hater!!!!

niner

if we lose tomorrow so what???? the Giants are the bullys the media says we should lose….but if God allows us to win, then the finger alex is waving in the air to show the world the 49ers are number one will be the middle finger to all you “football” experts! bah…….

#1 How many stadiums are tougher to play at then in Seattle? It’s a tough environment and everyone knew it would be a close hard fought game. I don’t see how winning a game on the road in a hostile environment points to a niners loss at home to the giants.

#2. The tough jets team? The jets finished the season with three straight losses including getting blown out by Philly the week before they lost to the giants.

#3 the giants lost AT HOME to the redskins 23-10 late in the season. Funny that you point to a niners win on the road in Seattle as reason to think they wil lose to the giants while the ny loss to the redskins isn’t mentioned

bullship

Just want to make sure I am on the record…Niners by 5+ say 31…21..

Amd Ravens at 32 -29…over Pats..

The EASTERN BIAS has simply overwhelmed all objectivity…

niner ALREADY beat the Giants– and BTW – manning played GREAT in that game- starting 10-10..plus making many great throws PLUS converting on THREE fourth downs…yet Giants STILL LOST.

Niners win…and Pats V Balt game is closer than many think- FG either way imo….

Brian

Lame. Go NINERS!!!!

Threeputt

Well, I think TK’s opinion is fair, but wrong. Can’t argue about the NYG advantage at WR. But I think TK is forgetting that the NYG lost 7 games, including 2 to the Washington Redskins. And he mentions the Niners struggling to beat Seattle, how about that same Seattle knocking the NYG all over the field, and the NYG seemingly unable to tackle Marshawn Lynch in a bad loss. Mostly I think TK is overrating NYG’s victory over Green Bay last week, that game had a lot more to do with Green Bay losing it than the NYG winning it. But talk is cheap, it’s time to do it on the field. Don’t understand all the anger towards TK for venturing his opinion, do you want him to be like every other Bay Area writer/sportscaster and just pick the Niners to make the audience happy?

Joe Sanchez

TK has a fair opinion but 16 points? How do the Niners get 16? 2 TDs and a safety? 2 field goals and a TD + 2pt conversion? The Niners are underdogs but hopefully Crabtree will “revert to the mean” and make some plays tomorrow, and draw some coverage off VD and Delanie Walker.

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

NYG have more playoff experience? The Saints and Packers both had more playoff experience – and are not participating in the playoffs any longer.

Also, Green Bay had a bye – and looked like it. Great win for NYGs but lets not go overboard and annoint them NFC champs just yet.

Home field advantage will be on display Sunday.

Bonecrushing physicality/defense. Turnovers – Tim, these are not “lucky” breaks – turnovers are a skill, practiced and coached and mastered by a team that not only tackles – but strips the ball as well. Offensively, the 49ers don’t give up turnovers.

49ers will play well enough to win.

lindol

The ’11 Giants/’07 Warriors comparison is just asinine. The upstart Warriors were 3-0 against the Mavericks in during the regular season that year. This year’s Giants team has already lost to the Niners. It would make more sense to compare the Niners to that Warriors squad. Although, If you want a recent Bay Area cross-sport comparison for the Niners, there is a far better one: The 2010 San Francisco Giants. (you didn’t believe in them either, remember “Phillies in 6″? Sucker.) The Giants, like the Saints before them, have the better wide recievers and the better QB (although I wouldn’t trade Alex for Eli, cuz screw that goofy looking oreo-rapist). The Niners have the better. . . everything else: Kicker, punter, special teams coverage, front seven, back four, turnover differential, point differential, uniforms, attitude et. cetera. The Giants are writing wolf tickets all week while the Niners are quietly doing work. The Niners are playing at home, where, as you noted, they haven’t lost since the second week of the season, and that loss was flukey. But you have the Giants winning cuz. . . they gained more yards than the Niners did in their last meeting? Lame. The Giants have been playing well of late, but so have we. I love that you picked the Giants, just like I loved that you pick the Phillies in ’10 and the Mavericks in ’07. You’re the worst. Niners-27, Giants 17.

Bud

It is all about Goodwin. If he’s healthy and plays wee, niners win comfortably. If not and rachal has to play RG, niners lose.

Bud

“plays well”

http://ihatemydvr.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

EManning is the better QB (please don’t kid yourself) but ASmith will be good enough for us to win 20-14 in a sloppy game.

cadan

homer

pbasil9er

9er need to just pack it up and go home, eh?
WHAT in the heck is going on in the minds of these FB(?) talking heads, just watch espn and see what drugs in the news room will do.
“the giants running game is back” yeah so what?
first time around we didn’t have our either!
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONINERS!

Robert Pabelico

Hey! Tim where get that prediction? “Why the Giants will beat the 49ers, barely, maybe, possibly” Did you see that in your Crystal Ball! Expert Predictions, HUH? Expert! Expert! Expert and more Expert!

John

Niners will beat the giants. This is our time. It’s our destiny.

Dz Giants

20-17 giants!!! How does it feel?!? The sting! have fun san Francisco with the giants logo on your trollys. Haha. Im actually a niners fan big time but i bet against them. Reason? Your posts on Alex Smith. He sucks as qb. A qb should be able to throw the ball. Not saying Eli Manning is much better but great game on both sides. Ny victory. (I am Canadian btw, my Fav team is 49ers and Broncos… I am just realistic when comparing teams unlike you fanboys) Teams were crazy even…. Only issue was the qb difference. You’d have to be dumb to think it was because of the fumble they lost…. It was the fumble that gave ny the win for sure but smith if he was better shouldn’t have had it come to that point… Oh and Alex Smith… What the hell, throw the ball better bud. Cheers.

Justin

Looks like you were dead on with this article. Kind of creepy.

NYGFan

Big Suede I see you!!! What a blowout! Classic 9-7 garbage team, just lucky to be there! How about completing a pass to a WR?

Mr. Amateur! What’s up bro? We will see who wins, don’t we!

Real niner fans get respect from me. Fools like you are blaming Kyle Williams and are playing the “what if” game. And how classless are you guys, tweeting death threats at Kyle! Rough game, but it’s a damn game. You guys are Philadelphia level right now.