With Arctic sea ice reaching record lows, people have begun to explore routes through Canada's Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route above the coast of Russia. These routes have the potential to significantly shorten transit times between Asia and both Europe and North America, reducing shipping costs and fostering international trade.

At the moment there is little guarantee that the routes will be open in any given year, which is enough to keep shippers from taking full advantage of the shrinking ice. Having a better grip on when the ice is likely to recede enough to allow shipping would greatly aid planning. So two geographers at UCLA took a series of climate models and ran the numbers for two emissions scenarios. Based on their estimates, lightly reinforced vessels could cross directly over the pole by mid-century, and regular vessels could traverse both the Russian and Canadian routes.

One of the problems here is that climate models have consistently underestimated how quickly the ice would be vanishing each summer. The authors therefore ran the full collection from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and selected the five models that did the best with historic data. They then added in two additional models that have detailed, realistic representation of sea ice and the physics associated with it. This ensemble of models was then run using two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, one on the low end of current trends and one on the high end.

These models were used to estimate the extent and thickness of ice in September, when levels in the Arctic tend to be at their lowest. The authors then considered the ability of two different classes of ships to navigate the Arctic Ocean: current open water vessels that are used for global trade and a class called PC6. The PC6 vessels are built to withstand transit through first-year ice (ice that froze during the previous winter) and are currently used primarily for trade in special areas like the Baltic Sea. (You can read much more about the PC6 specs in this document.)

In the immediate future, out to 2015, not a lot changes; the only viable route is the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast. But the dynamics of that route change. For one, it becomes open more frequently, as often as 70 percent in some models. And while open water vessels still have to hug the coast, the PC6 ships are often able to take a more direct route across the Arctic, saving time and avoiding some potential navigational hazards.

By mid-century (technically 2040 to 2059), however, things shift dramatically. There's about a 95 percent chance that the Northern Sea Route will be open in a given year, and open water vessels will no longer be limited to hugging the coast. At the same time, the Northwest passage opens up, going from having a 25 percent chance of being open to about 60 percent by mid-century. When it's open, most of the open water traffic from North America would do best by using that route; PC6 ships from North America can effectively use that route every year.

The big difference is in the area north of Russia. During many years, this area opens up enough so that open water vessels can take increasingly direct routes across the Arctic ocean, in some cases travelling close to the pole itself. Meanwhile, the reinforced PC6 ships can shoot directly across the pole itself pretty much every September. In this scenario, these ships can take a nearly direct route from Europe to Asia.

The authors note that merely having a navigable ocean isn't enough to make a trade route viable; services and infrastructure, including escorts and insurance, can raise the costs. Meanwhile, the two major canals (Suez and Panama) could adjust their fees in response. On the other side of the equation, the climate models (as noted above) have consistently underestimated the significance of the changes that are occurring in the Arctic. That means that some of these routes may open even sooner, giving us more experience and infrastructure in place by mid-century.

And who thought the polar ice caps melting was such a bad idea? I'm going to have beach front property in the Mtns of East Tennessee and free over night amazon shipping! I think I am going to buy an old k5 blazer and just keep it running to speed up this process!

What impact could regular shipping lanes across the pole have on ice cover? Not an expert here, but wouldn't ships break up weak ice and contribute further to receding ice cover each year, both by destroying the ice directly and by leaving areas of open water, which absorbs more heat?

Is there any indication as to what methods are used in these scenarios? Are the various models given equal weight in the new scenario, or are different weights assigned based on the level of accuracy with regard to actual levels? Do they then run some kind of Monte Carlo analysis based on the distribution of results to determine probabilities of economic impact? Regardless, it is an interesting angle to the polar ice predicament.

Beyond the breakup of ice exposing more open water and decreasing albedo, the next big effect to look for would be the deposit of black carbon (soot) from the ships' emissions on the surrounding ice. That takes them from very highly reflective of sunlight to somewhat absorptive. Which, if course, will accelerate melting even more.

I for one like this. I think the fear of rising water levels is exaggerated, as I feel has been substantiated by some of the more level-headed reports... (If a few inches is gonna drown your city, sorry, you built it on the wrong fucking place).

As such I mostly view this as progress, and look forward to the increased flow of contraband. I mean... cargo.

Anyway, it's a step forward.

Well, keep in mind, for Arctic ice, sea level rise isn't an issue. It's the Antarctic and Greenland ice cap that pose those problems, since they're over land.

I kind of wonder what Russia's and Canada's plans are for their northern regions right now. Are they planning new harbor building and transportation infrastruction (railways, roads, etc) to take advantage to this potential boom, or are they just sitting by, waiting for more information? Because it seems like now would be the best time to start building up to gain a competitive advantage, since we know it's going to open up, it's only a matter of time, now.

I kind of wonder what Russia's and Canada's plans are for their northern regions right now. Are they planning new harbor building and transportation infrastruction (railways, roads, etc) to take advantage to this potential boom, or are they just sitting by, waiting for more information? Because it seems like now would be the best time to start building up to gain a competitive advantage, since we know it's going to open up, it's only a matter of time, now.

One of my colleagues from the Soviet Union described to me how they would abandon construction equipment in the far north because it was cheaper in whatever metric they were using to bring in equipment and leave it than it was to recover the equipment from the arctic.

...and then there are the geopolitical concerns. Whose waterway is the NW Passage? After all, Russia and Canada (and the US) have land up there. These countries have territorial limits that would likely extend into navigable portions of the passage.

...and then there are the geopolitical concerns. Whose waterway is the NW Passage? After all, Russia and Canada (and the US) have land up there. These countries have territorial limits that would likely extend into navigable portions of the passage.

FYI anything that is on Forbes.com/sites is nothing more than a glorified Blogger account and shouldn't be given the same weight at a well researched article with sources as the likes that Forbes itself would publish.

FYI anything that is on Forbes.com/sites is nothing more than a glorified Blogger account and shouldn't be given the same weight at a well researched article with sources as the likes that Forbes itself would publish.

It's a bit better than a Blogger page, as it is semi-moderated.

However, anyone can create an account, so lobbyists such as those from the Heartland Institute are using the domain to lend credibility to their articles arguing that climate change is a hoax and cigarettes are healthy.

Read the book Barrow's Boys by Fergus Fleming, which touches on the difficulties in navigating the Northwest Passage in more normal times. One of the last untouched and pristine areas on Earth, and global warming is going to destroy it.

Beyond the breakup of ice exposing more open water and decreasing albedo, the next big effect to look for would be the deposit of black carbon (soot) from the ships' emissions on the surrounding ice. That takes them from very highly reflective of sunlight to somewhat absorptive. Which, if course, will accelerate melting even more.

«the climate models (as noted above) have consistently underestimated the significance of the changes that are occurring in the Arctic»

So let's take these very models that have consistently erred over a handful of years and project out over 50 year spans!

Amazing what makes "The Scientific Methods" section these days.

Well, when you make a machine that can accurately predict the future for a system as complex as the climate let me know. Maybe instead of creating models fed by real world data, we can just all take a guess. With billions of people on the planet, one of us is bound to be right.

I kind of wonder what Russia's and Canada's plans are for their northern regions right now. Are they planning new harbor building and transportation infrastruction (railways, roads, etc) to take advantage to this potential boom, or are they just sitting by, waiting for more information? Because it seems like now would be the best time to start building up to gain a competitive advantage, since we know it's going to open up, it's only a matter of time, now.

First they may have to wait for the permafrost to complete melting, and then for the world's largest bogs to dry out a bit. My guess is that for many locations on the Arctic ocean it will be much easier to ship stuff in. I hear rumors that the shipping lanes are becoming easier to use.