The USA is a Country of 310.0 million people. Every year needs over 3.10 million new jobs for new generations. It is impossible to create over 2,60,000 jobs per month or 3.10 million new jobs per year by the federal government by Payroll system. Federal and state governments are not entrusted with all works of the people. Many responsibilities are still rested in the people. Their self-employment and works are run without government designed programs or directions.

Governments are initiators and facilitator those works which private individuals and corporates are incapable to create or do individually. Government, corporate and individual initiatives also may not be not effective and expected level unless are complemented by the favorable institutions. In reality, any State specially a big one is run primarily on her set of basic institutions. It is historically tested that if the prevailing institutions are not effective and favorable, no committed Government can do much than others.

Since 1837, the economic recession and proportional unemployment are regular cycle phenomena of the US Economy. Those are not outputs of the Ghosts but the institutional limitation(s) of the State. The US Corporate/Company laws generated quasi-capitalistic political economy which was dynamic than Capitalistic economy. But due to lack of institution of democratic division of capital, the US economy was not saved from the rise of monopolistic capital, cyclic recessions and unemployment and suffering of the people.

Payroll employment system have short-run necessity, but it is not permanent remedy. The permanent remedy institutional remedy that is continuous and self-running. The institution of Democratic distribution of capital can ensure protection against the rise of monopolistic capital, cyclic recessions and unemployment and suffering of the people as well as higher dynamic democratic economy.

Perhaps, I could not communicate my ideas and comments. My remarks are not different from you. I want higher freedom of private sector. But Freedom is undefined, incomplete, conflicting, irrational and unprotected without equal rights.

The institutions of Capitalism also ensure freedom and mobility of labor, land and capital as well as competitive markets. But economic institutions of Capitalism cyclically produces recession and Depression in the economy as the capital goes on monopolistic transformation.

The Democratic Economy is based on the institutions of equal rights and ensure continuity of freedom and mobility of labor, land and capital as well as competitive markets without cyclic deviation to monopoly. Consequently, higher growth of the economy and equitable distribution are ensured.

If the Economist would give me an opportunity to publish my idea regarding institutional differences between Capitalistic Economy and Democratic Economy, world economic progress, globalization, etc would accelerate (makarim57@tx.rr.com)

The worst the USA could and did was to spend a lot on the space and read on In more than a decade at war since Sept. 11, 2001, the United States has relied increasingly on drones to kill people away from the battlefield. It has faced few constraints. Now an overdue push for greater accountability and transparency is gathering steam, propelled by growing unease that America’s drones hit targets in countries with whom it is not formally at war, that there are no publicly understood rules for picking targets, and that the strikes may kill innocent civilians and harm, not help, American interests. Stanley McChrystal, the retired general, has warned that drone strikes are so resented abroad that their overuse could jeopardize America’s broader objectives. The secretary of state, John Kerry, spoke at his confirmation hearing of the need to make sure that “American foreign policy is not defined by drones and deployments alone. “Drones have obvious advantages. The unmanned vehicles, whose controllers may be hundreds of miles away at a remote base, can hover silently over a target for hours, transmitting images and sound, and then strike quickly if needed. The administration says the use of drones has taken many enemy combatants off the battlefield and reduced civilian casualties. But sceptics abound. John Brennan, the counterterrorism adviser most responsible for the program, faces a Senate confirmation hearing Thursday as President Obama’s nominee as C.I.A. director. He should be questioned closely about the strikes: their purpose, legal justification and relationship to broader American foreign policy aims.For years, Mr. Obama has stretched executive power to claim that the 2001 Congressional authorization to use military force against Al Qaeda gives him the unilateral authority to order people, including American citizens, killed away from any battlefield without judicial oversight or public accountability. He took a step in the right direction on Wednesday when he directed the Justice Department to give Congressional committees its classified legal advice on targeting Americans. Is this called peace plan I doubt it We have killed more then any other way. It is a shame and we still crave for more bloodshed in the world in the name of religion or economy namely oil I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

IMHO investors lose the most money trading around the edges. The author is right, it's a good time to raise some cash as multiple indicators that power multiple trading strategies are calling for a pullback.
The needed bad news that prompts trend reversal always seems to be timely. Can anyone really tell me that today's GDP number didn't give them second thoughts?...whether you are bullish or bearish.
Personally, the GDP number seems to be out of position with consumer spending, business investment, housing and other hard numbers. T begin the year I made a decision to put 7% cash aside to take advantage of a market swoon and I can tell you I feel a lot smarter today than yesterdaySequestration starts March 1st and the market is overbought going into it. Rep. Ryan said recently it looks like it is unavoidable. Defense stocks ($DJUSDN) have already started to pull back. I expect a pullback in the overall market very soon. Labor report due on Feb 1, day after month end window dressing, could be a pullback start. I've heard rumors of manipulation in those numbers last summer and fall to support the Administrations re-election efforts. The Labour Sec just resigned in Jan. and it may be time to open the Kimono on bad numbers. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

U.S. and States Prepare to Sue S.&P. Over Mortgage Ratings The Justice Department, along with state prosecutors, plans to file civil charges against Standard & Poor's Ratings Service, accusing the firm of fraudulently rating mortgage bonds that led to the financial crisis, people briefed on the plan said Monday. Up until last week, the Justice Department had been in settlement talks with S.&P., these people said. But the negotiations broke down after the Justice Department said it would seek a settlement in excess of "10 figures," or at least $1 billion, these people said, which would wipe out the profits of S.&P.'s parent, the McGraw-Hill Company, for an entire year. McGraw-Hill earned $911 million last year. A suit against S.&P. would be the first the government has brought against the credit ratings agencies related to the financial crisis, despite continued questions about the agencies' conflicts of interest and role in creating a housing bubble. During settlement negotiations, the Justice Department held out the threat of a criminal case against S.&P., the people said. Ultimately, the government plans to bring a civil suit, which has a lower burden of proof than a criminal case. the mortgage securities were created in 2007 at the height of the housing boom. Prosecutors, according to the people, have uncovered troves emails by S&P, employees, which the government considers damaging. Portions of those emails are likely to be disclosed in the government's complaint against S&P, these people said. In a statement on Monday, S.&P. said it had received notice from the Justice Department over a pending lawsuit. The ratings agency argued any such legal action would be baseless, since it downgraded plenty of mortgage-backed investments, including in the two years leading up to the financial crisis. It also contended that other observers of the debt markets, including government officials, believed at the time that any problems within the housing sector could be contained. "A D.O.J. lawsuit would be entirely without factual or legal merit," the agency said in its statement. "With 20/20 hindsight, these strong actions proved insufficient - but they demonstrate that the D.O.J. would be wrong in contending that S.&P. ratings were motivated by commercial considerations and not issued in good faith." . I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

the labour force was unchanged in January while the number of people employed slipped by 110,000 ... nothing new here because all thât employment raise at the end of the year were the usual end-of-the-year very short term jobs
Job creation ought to be from the privatre sector mostly . And it looks like the private sector may recover this year. Not thanks to this administration though.

I agree with "David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley" based on the method described in my previous post. It will take 30 months, as he "reckons" if job growth continues at 175,000 per month, the labour force participation rate remains steady, for the unemployment rate to fall to 6.5% If job growth picks up to 200,000 per month, it will happen in December, 2014, or ~22 months.

It will require adding an average of 200,000 jobs per month for a period of 90 months(7.5 years) to return participation rates to 66% with a 6% unemployment rate.

I am going to add the links to BLS and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator in this post at the bottom. In the event that links are not allowed. I will explain how readers might find the same.

I wished to know how long it might take and how many jobs must be created each month to return to a 66% participation and 6% unemployment. With a few iterations, I found that an average of 200,000 jobs per month must be created for a period of 90 months(7.5 years) to achieve my desired "normal" targets.

Should the links not be allowed:
Search on the phrase "Labor force participation" This should link you the BLS data and a chart showing history. With this data in mind, go to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator. You will need to enter the term Jobs Calculator in the search on that page.

The BLS data will show that for nearly 20 years, from 1989 through 2008, the labor participation rate was in the 66 to 67% range. In 2008, you will see a somewhat rapid decline to less than 64%, that is holding. With this in mind, you may adjust the numbers in the Fed's jobs calculator for your needs.

I am curious to see if any other readers might wish to use the same sources to arrive at different conclusions, or please let me know why this is not a valid approach to use. Thanks!

Well, we can't ignore the fact that the Baby Boomers are going to be retiring. A return to the participation rate of 2007 is not to be expected. Projection shows that at full employment participation should be around 65% or so in the coming years.

Thank you! And might you share the data source of your projection, so that I may inform the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to make appropriate revisions? For while I might agree with your revision downwards to 65%, other projections from World Bank show the participation rate should actually increase to above the 67% as the life spans have increased, and/or due to the loss in value of homes and/or other retirement savings. If, this is the case, and say 68% is the new required participation rate, then the calculator shows it will be 11 years at 200,000 jobs per month to return to "normal".

Monetary policy should be pegged to inflation, and not the unemployment rate. God grant the Federal Reserve Bank: The courage to change the things they can change; The serenity to accept the things they can not change; And the wisdom to know the difference.

There are good reasons for not taking today's numbers as meaning much of anything, and you confirm them by reporting the substantial revisions made to earlier numbers.
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Come on, G.I., you know better.

Even a rolling average of the past 3 months (including the revisions which always turn up) would be better than the monthly numbers that people now obsess over. Everybody who actually uses them knows that they are going to be revised anyway. So all they really do is provide talking points for politicians and professional talking heads.

The upward revisions in Nov’12 & Dec’12 and the January’13 number itself looked at from the twelve monthly moving average standpoint shows the non-farm payroll numbers at 168kt, which is quite an achievement for the establishment numbers for Wall Street to cheer. But on the flip side the household numbers (as opposed to the establishment numbers) showed the continuation of the decline, something which one must take note of that could impact the establishment numbers in the coming months. I still fail to understand why the net addition and delta change including the household numbers is not the metric. This strengthens the widely held view that good news hides any semblance of the bad, or should we say the bad news is ‘pushed’ out of the information ambit, so that only gains could be furthered?

Unemployment rate is rising, so are national debt and fiscal deficit. House-sale is lethargic, business sluggish. Yet Dow crosses 14k for the first time since 2007 just because of the increase in car sale lately. Too much cash around? Speculation on the run? Something is amiss, watch out. (vzc1943, ttm1943)

The recent debt ceiling back-down is proof that behind the posturing and bluster, politicians of all stripes know that now is not the time for government austerity. In fact, the reason why QE has continued to be necessary is because Congress is incapable of reaching any of its levers to stimulate the economy.

Sequester will be negotiated and probably set to phase in, or deferred until 2015, or something like that. GOP is worried about midterm elections and rightfully so, their legislative behavior over the past 4 years has been against the spirit of recovery, to put it lightly.

Of course the problem is that their base now thinks that anyone violating austerity orthodoxy must be primaried. It's a tough spot, politically.

The reality is around 28% of Americans actually work and earn money. All the rest live off the efforts of these people. Yes the rest include dependents, retirees and legitimate government employees such as soldiers but many of the rest are freeloaders. Welfare recipients, public union employees doing unnecessary jobs at twice the cost. Yes people, if you work for the government legitimate or not, your money came from the efforts of others. Add to this insanity the fact that a substantial portion of the confiscated american GDP is supporting foreign entities. Somehow, I am fairly sure we 28% of americans working and paying taxes probably don't need to be funding the now muslim brotherhood controlled Egyptian military.

The basic fact here is with 28% of the population in effect supporting the entire US economy, US parasitical governments and the 72% of the population not earning money, there will eventually be economic collapse. We simply cant have a 28% minority of defacto slaves footing the bill for so many others. It wont work.

Not only DOES it work, but it has for worked for decades. Your 28% is the classic family of four, with 2 kids at home, a stay-at-home mother, and a father working the grind. Ever watch "Leave it to Beaver"??? This doesn't even take into account Grandma and Grandpa relaxing in the retirement home.

Your suggestion that private employment in this country has been significantly higher historically is unfounded, and comes across a somewhat "chicken little".

"Nonetheless, the private sector has done a remarkable job of maintaining its composure even while all around it, politicians are losing theirs. Hopefully that pattern will persist for the remainder of the year."

It's incredible that we continue to view the last two years of GOP self-sabotage in such a forgiving light. We used to call that type of cynical behavior treasonous. Now we treat them in the same fashion as an elderly, demented family member that we all secretly wish would just die already. The GOP serves no function in its current form other than to act as our political Id, wholly unconcerned with real-life results of its actions, and only interested in screaming loudly about its outrage du jour.

How sad that the Daddy Party is now the Crazy Uncle Party that we all quietly try to ignore.

"The bad news is that job creation, as widely feared, slowed as 2013 began and some hefty tax hikes took effect."
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UE at 7.9% is nothing but the corrections done to those out-of-air numbers fabricated in October 2012 . All those numbers were created using data-torturing [i.e. massage data till you get what WH told you to "find" out ]
Re-elected, Obama does not care where the UE will be as long as his marxist agenda gets done.

This is great. The Administration manipulated by unemployment rate by UNDER-counting job growth (per the revisions) and a labor increase resulting in a .1% uptick in the unemployment is the evidence of this plot.

To be fair, the government has always done a terrible job measuring leprechaun production and unicorn herding.

Interesting to see how the GOP will screw prospects up with a blind return to debt orthodoxy, rather than allowing the economic body to recover more before the necessary and inevitable trimming starts. Remember St Augustine asking to be chaste, but not right away?

Interesting to see how the GOP will screw prospects up with a blind return to debt orthodoxy, rather than allowing the economic body to recover more before the necessary and inevitable trimming starts. Remember St Augustine asking to be chaste, but not right away?