It's all a function of the course record and your percentage. I don't know how they calculate the percentage thingee, although it can be fairly accurate as a comparison measure among competitors, but the targeted finish prediction is often way off if there's a big disconnect between how competitive (i.e., "fast") the race is versus most of the races in your history. I figure, competitive races like Javelina or Lake Sonoma, they're going to predict something too fast, whereas smaller races like Cool Moon they'll predict something too slow. STILL. I beat my prediction for the 25-mile only by about 20 minutes. You beat yours by 3 hours! I think that may have something to do with the smaller pool of people who have finished the 50 at Cool Moon, as compared to the 25-mile, but it's also because you're considerably faster than your percentage reflects (since many of your races are training runs or runs where you've paced someone.)

I knew that you would crush the prediction thingies but didn't know that you would crush them that much. That is one fucking nice run! Major congratulations, my friend!

If it's not too much to ask, I think we'd appreciate some kind of recap of this one. Not necessarily a full narrative like you used to do but at least a summary in your inimitable style. I'd like to hear how you really crushed this, especially your thoughts along the way but also your training leading up to it.