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Re: General Election, and Brexit.

It will be Conservative.......but not as we know it.
Theresa is steadily invading the centre ground.......removing the very reason for the existence of the Liberal party......carving off the right wing of the Labour Party...
Isolating the right wing nutters of the Tories.....
Policies especially those regarding taxation may well not appeal to the traditional Tory voter.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

There are a large body of people who only voted conservative at the last two elections on the promise of a repeal of the hunting act. It is pushing it to get them to do so a third time when the promised was not forthcoming.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by Barney

There are a large body of people who only voted conservative at the last two elections on the promise of a repeal of the hunting act. It is pushing it to get them to do so a third time when the promised was not forthcoming.

I'm not convinced that the hunting lobby have any electoral clout to be honest, particularly when it's proved to be business as usual for most hunts under the new laws anyway. Besides, what are the countryside alliance going to do if they don't get a tory commitment to repeal the hunting act? Vote for Jeremy?

Jesus wept. My first thought is how does someone that dim get to be an MP, that was awful, don't the labour party have people to brief their MPs before major interviews?

I do like Eddie Mair as an interviewer, his disarming style is much more effective that Paxman's hectoring. Eddie appears to feel sorry for her at the end and stops pushing her on the questions, it was genuinely painful to listen to.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Frightening to think back to the Labour Party Leadership Election when Jeremy was first elected.....M/s Beckett nominated him solely to make a contest of it, never ever expecting that he would win.
The terrifying bit is " Never expecting he would win".....
However....
In my life I have never until now heard someone interviewed on TV as to their voting intention make this reply "how did you vote in the last election? ......"Labour, I have voted Labour all my life!" ....."how do you intend to vote in the General Election?"....."Conservative! I will never vote Labour whilst Jeremy Corbyn is leader."

In the past people would have been driven from their homes in the Labour heartlands for making such an admission.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

I wouldn't write Jezza off completely just yet. He's closer to core labour values than the blairite lot, the problem is more his lack of decisive leadership and charisma. Corbyn has spent his life addressing audiences who knew who he was and understood the minority causes he was speaking about, preaching to the choir, in other words. Now he has to make his point to the wider electorate who don't understand the minutiae of political discourse he falls down, he doesn't put his message across in a way the casual listener can understand.

In his more recent campaign speeches he's done rather better though, if he goes down the populist route and pitches himself against austerity, and for spending more on the NHS and social care etc. As Trump has demonstrated, you don't need to make sense or be able to deliver on your promises, just say any old shit and worry about the details later.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

But the Tories haven't exactly covered themsleves in glory these last couple of days either. Hammond saying (in so many words which the media have picked up on) that he doesn't want to be shackled over tax, or VAT. And The PM saying that the Foreign Aid budget isn't going to be altered. There are many people who think that charity should begin at home, and in this case they almost universally mean the NHS.

Of course a Chancellor needs to be able to change revenue streams but he should have chosen different words. The media pick up on all this stuff. It sells newspapers and makes for dynamic television (or so they think)

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Often think the media identifies the best outcome for them......and sets about trying to bring it about.
Biggest story with the longest lifeline??? The obliteration of the Labour Party in this election, Labour reduced to a limping rump.
Hours of TV debate can then follow will the Milliband return from America?...will Corbyn survive a Leadership Challenge....investigations into the darker recesses of Labour Party internal politics....
Which result gives the media the greatest opportunities? Another wafer thin majority? Or picking over the entrails of a once mighty political party after the Eighth of June Massacre?

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

If the press keep harping on about the death of a party then closset followers come out of the woodwork and they get a landslide victory, seemingly form nowhere. Maybe that is what the press are after.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Much will depend on whether the EU leaders become even more spiteful. If they do, there will be more support for Brexit.
The Tory party needn't bother with Party Political Broadcasts - just show the ill-mannered Europeans shunning Theresa May at that Brussels meeting.

I see they are now encouraging a united Ireland and even offering NI automatic membership if that happens. But it still doesn't
explain how Ireland and possibly NI and (Dutch flower deliveries?) will be able to cross the UK without rigorous conditions.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by b slicker

Much will depend on whether the EU leaders become even more spiteful. If they do, there will be more support for Brexit.
The Tory party needn't bother with Party Political Broadcasts - just show the ill-mannered Europeans shunning Theresa May at that Brussels meeting.

Do you really buy into all this jingoistic claptrap? the leaders of the EU are the prime ministers and presidents of the member states, and that includes, for the moment at least, Mrs May. The Council has designated the Commission as its negotiator in Brexit talks and has approved Juncker's choice of Michel Barnier to head the negotiating team. Barnier is representing the interests of the 27, what do you expect them to say? Yes of course you can leave without paying for any of the financial commitments you made in good faith, and of course you can keep all the benefits enjoyed by paying members even though you contribute nothing? tell me, if you'd just told your local NFU group secretary he could stick his membership fee up his arse and you'd be buying insurance from the someone else in future would you be expecting a free ticket for the Branch dinner dance this year?

I see they are now encouraging a united Ireland and even offering NI automatic membership if that happens. But it still doesn't
explain how Ireland and possibly NI and (Dutch flower deliveries?) will be able to cross the UK without rigorous conditions.

just another thing that our glorious leaders haven't thought about yet, but hey, they're on target for a landslide victory in the next election so we'll sort the details out later, eh?

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

just another thing that our glorious leaders haven't thought about yet, but hey, they're on target for a landslide victory in the next election so we'll sort the details out later, eh?

Sounds like the politicians on this side of the pond, regardless of what colour tie they wear (red, blue, orange, green, purple with black pokadots, . . .) - promise promise promise and let the taxpayer pay IF we get elected.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by matbrojoe

Do you really buy into all this jingoistic claptrap? the leaders of the EU are the prime ministers and presidents of the member states, and that includes, for the moment at least, Mrs May. The Council has designated the Commission as its negotiator in Brexit talks and has approved Juncker's choice of Michel Barnier to head the negotiating team. Barnier is representing the interests of the 27, what do you expect them to say? Yes of course you can leave without paying for any of the financial commitments you made in good faith, and of course you can keep all the benefits enjoyed by paying members even though you contribute nothing? tell me, if you'd just told your local NFU group secretary he could stick his membership fee up his arse and you'd be buying insurance from the someone else in future would you be expecting a free ticket for the Branch dinner dance this year?

just another thing that our glorious leaders haven't thought about yet, but hey, they're on target for a landslide victory in the next election so we'll sort the details out later, eh?

The EU is not quite the same thing as our NFU group secretary.
We started paying in to Europe some 40years ago. Year after year a large net payment. At first it was a good thing, it helped in the modernisation of Europe, especially France, I remember what was almost medieval France. As time has gone on some of that money has gone to develop other countries like Poland, but Poland has not stopped there. It has sent its citizens here, admittedly hard working, but improving their country AND paying their children's benefits on top is a bit rich.
However most of our money has gone to support a beaurocratic monster, building two palaces and paying the likes of Kinnock huge gravy trains.
Instead of of the UK paying £6 or £8 billion OUT, we should be receiving a similar amount to increase our health service, build more homes and increase our infrastructure to cope with 330,000 more people every year.
Of course EU. People are bound to be nasty now, they going to lose the gravy train and have to find that money among themselves!

Jack Caley.
I believe Teresa May should pay nothing, just walk away and let them come to us, and give us some of that £400 billion we have paid in back again. Do not forget because of Maggie Thatcher, unless we match funded we got nothing back!!

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

The EU is not quite the same thing as our NFU group secretary.
We started paying in to Europe some 40years ago. Year after year a large net payment. At first it was a good thing, it helped in the modernisation of Europe, especially France, I remember what was almost medieval France. As time has gone on some of that money has gone to develop other countries like Poland, but Poland has not stopped there. It has sent its citizens here, admittedly hard working, but improving their country AND paying their children's benefits on top is a bit rich.
However most of our money has gone to support a beaurocratic monster, building two palaces and paying the likes of Kinnock huge gravy trains.
Instead of of the UK paying £6 or £8 billion OUT, we should be receiving a similar amount to increase our health service, build more homes and increase our infrastructure to cope with 330,000 more people every year.
Of course EU. People are bound to be nasty now, they going to lose the gravy train and have to find that money among themselves!

Jack Caley.
I believe Teresa May should pay nothing, just walk away and let them come to us, and give us some of that £400 billion we have paid in back again. Do not forget because of Maggie Thatcher, unless we match funded we got nothing back!!

The best way to stop immigration is to help poorer countries than our own keep their people within their own country , it costs us just as much to grant fund European countries to modernise after years of Dictatorship governments as it would to point Missiles & have larger armed forces .In the same way France has benefited, ex communist countries have progressed into successful democracies , unlike say eastern Ukraine . Too much simplistic inward thinking from you Jack.

Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by skoda

The best way to stop immigration is to help poorer countries than our own keep their people within their own country , it costs us just as much to grant fund European countries to modernise after years of Dictatorship governments as it would to point Missiles & have larger armed forces .In the same way France has benefited, ex communist countries have progressed into successful democracies , unlike say eastern Ukraine . Too much simplistic inward thinking from you Jack.

You maybe have a point about my inward thinking, although I will possibly not agree.
When you look at the overall picture, and see all the factors involved you can see that there were about another 17 million people like me who voted for out. To vote out was the only possibility for many people. Had Europe been more tractable in recognising that Cameron had a problem, they might have made concessions. If anyone is to blame for the present situation, it is the EU politicians. They have to have their own way, just like when they made Southern Ireland vote again just because they had voted the wrong way, first time. The Greekprime minister had a democratic mandate but EU overruled it.
The European monster does not allow for local solutions to local problems, nothing must get in the way of the Federal state, which in the end creates an inefficient ungovernable state.
It is ironic that Nicola Sturgeon wants more devolved government but wants to remain part of Europe.
If it were up to me I would walk away from the very first, refuse a payment, leave the so-called free market and wait for them to come and beg for our market and our fishing rights. If they can have our fishing rights, why can we not have part of their cheese market or part of the Dutch bacon market?

I am not in for inward thinking, just a fair deal, without always paying out.
Jack Caley

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

The EU politician's are being very rude and belligerent towards the uk at present and trying to extort as much money as possible to keep the EU edifice shored up. At some point they are going to get a reality check in that sure a hard brexit hurts the uk but with a multi billion Euro per annum uk trade deficit with the EU possibly drifting to non EU countries and the possibility of billions of divorce money not being paid the two could leave a serious and ongoing hole in the EU budget for years to come that would cause serious alterations to the institution. Mrs May knows that sooner or later the EU will bottle it as they need both the UK trade and the financial settlement or the gravy train comes off the rails. The whingers and doom merchants conveniently forget about the trade deficit_ they sell us a hell of a lot more than we sell them. Expect to see the UK turn the screws on Ireland big time after the election as Ireland has the most to lose of all the other 27 in a no deal scenario so will squeal the institution down if a good trade deal isn't on the cards. If Ireland's access withers to the UK market they might even have to think about bailing the EU and joining the commonwealth. A few years of recession might make the UK want to rejoin or Ireland leave. It will be high stakes. It's no accident the election was called to give Mrs May the longest possible window to tough it out through the storm.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by T P

The EU politician's are being very rude and belligerent towards the uk at present .

Originally Posted by T P

Expect to see the UK turn the screws on Ireland big time after the election as Ireland has the most to lose of all the other 27 in a no deal scenario so will squeal the institution down if a good trade deal isn't on the cards. If Ireland's access withers to the UK market they might even have to think about bailing the EU and joining the commonwealth. A few years of recession might make the UK want to rejoin or Ireland leave.

Have you been reading the Daily Mail again , so its OK for us but not for them .

Originally Posted by T P

It's no accident the election was called to give Mrs May the longest possible window to tough it out through the storm.

Given that we have to get 27 countries to agree to a deal , it is hardly rocket science its not going to be concluded within 24 months however we negotiate .

Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Have you been reading the Daily Mail again , so its OK for us but not for them .

Given that we have to get 27 countries to agree to a deal , it is hardly rocket science its not going to be concluded within 24 months however we negotiate .

Just goes to show what a farce this whole thing is.
Just one point, we are not negotiating with 27 countries, they have said they will only deal as one.
The other day I heard some woman say on Radio 4, that stupid woman , Mrs May, claiming to be a difficult woman will put their backs up before she starts.
Personally, I think it is right approach.
From the start, refuse to pay the divorce bill.
Just walk away, and let Europe come to us.
A whole load of Irish farmers, in conjunction with an even bigger load of French wine growers, and cheese makers, Dutch pig producers, not to mention Messrs Mercedes, Volkeswagen, BMW and Seat, will want open borders just they have now.
Open borders are nothing new, before the time of the Euro, I drove through borders,only having to show my customs documents but not paying any tariff.
Why should it alter?
Jack Caley

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

As it happens there have been no major skirmishes between any EU countries since it was formed. Is it the opinion of posters on here that this has been because of the union or has that had no relevance.

If it is the case that the EU hasn't prevented any hostilities then I can't see what the reason for it is. It is certainly a gravy train for those people who like to get involved in such things with the implied cache, not to mention the salary and the pension pot.

But it is a fact that U.K. agriculture faired just as well under what used to be called the guaranteed payment system that we had before joining the Common Market. There were many more family farms, more farmer's children were educated privately. I always think the latter is a good measure of how things used to be in agriculture 50 years ago. There wasn't this "bigger is better" or "bigger is the only way to go" doctrine that prevails today. Youngsters could get on the farming ladder irrespective of their background.

I am aware that we can't go back in time but I'll say this. The EU has, in a way, screwed British agriculture plc. We are now dependent on their bribes. They are subsidies but only to keep the shopping bill for the man on the Clapham omnibus at a lower than realistic level. And now look at the hoops we have to jump through to even have a chance of getting assistance. Look after the newts et al. When we were smaller family farms there was a balanced agriculture, balanced with nature, a living, a way of life. Now it's just a factory floor.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by zaza

As it happens there have been no major skirmishes between any EU countries since it was formed. Is it the opinion of posters on here that this has been because of the union or has that had no relevance.

If it is the case that the EU hasn't prevented any hostilities then I can't see what the reason for it is. It is certainly a gravy train for those people who like to get involved in such things with the implied cache, not to mention the salary and the pension pot.

But it is a fact that U.K. agriculture faired just as well under what used to be called the guaranteed payment system that we had before joining the Common Market. There were many more family farms, more farmer's children were educated privately. I always think the latter is a good measure of how things used to be in agriculture 50 years ago. There wasn't this "bigger is better" or "bigger is the only way to go" doctrine that prevails today. Youngsters could get on the farming ladder irrespective of their background.

I am aware that we can't go back in time but I'll say this. The EU has, in a way, screwed British agriculture plc. We are now dependent on their bribes. They are subsidies but only to keep the shopping bill for the man on the Clapham omnibus at a lower than realistic level. And now look at the hoops we have to jump through to even have a chance of getting assistance. Look after the newts et al. When we were smaller family farms there was a balanced agriculture, balanced with nature, a living, a way of life. Now it's just a factory floor.

You and I very much think alike. Basically I started in farming by buying an in pig gilt. You could not do that today, product prices are far too low.
I agree that the EU has screwed farming when it changed to single farm payments based on acreage. This has totally distorted farm structure with some of the big acreages just not needing the payment as they had economy of scale anyway.
I think all this will change now with the payments being made for all sorts of other purposes not related to production.
The big problem now is that the whole negotiations are going to be conducted by fat cat politicians afraid to lose the gravy trainNothing to do with trade.
Jack Caley

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Originally Posted by Jack_Caley

Just goes to show what a farce this whole thing is.
Just one point, we are not negotiating with 27 countries, they have said they will only deal as one.
The other day I heard some woman say on Radio 4, that stupid woman , Mrs May, claiming to be a difficult woman will put their backs up before she starts.
Personally, I think it is right approach.
From the start, refuse to pay the divorce bill.
Just walk away, and let Europe come to us.
A whole load of Irish farmers, in conjunction with an even bigger load of French wine growers, and cheese makers, Dutch pig producers, not to mention Messrs Mercedes, Volkeswagen, BMW and Seat, will want open borders just they have now.
Open borders are nothing new, before the time of the Euro, I drove through borders,only having to show my customs documents but not paying any tariff.
Why should it alter?
Jack Caley

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

Last night very late being the sicko that I am, I turned on BBC Parliament, Channel 131. Presumably the EU negotiator(M Beunier??) had addressed the parliament and the Irish Prime Minister was making a statement in reply.Maybe with a memory of all the money the Irish have had in the past he was very pro Europe and could not understand why the UK wishes to stop paying the gravy train.
Even he, though, is beginning to realise the devastating effect a closed border and restriction of trade will have on Southern Ireland. The dependence of Irish agriculture on UK market will be devastating. Adams almost wet himself at the prospect of a United Ireland being forced upon N Ireland.
I think it was the Fienna Fail member who really asked some forthright questions, he was realistic about the impact on Southern Ireland.
The politicians speak with a honey tongue in support of the EU, but I really do hope that they will overridden by the ordinary people of Europe, the businessmen whose livelihoods depend on their overwhelming trade with the UK.
The politicians have blackmailed the UK by saying no free movement, no trade. Their position has been intransigent up to now. Mrs May was correct in not showing her hand, the only way is for her to pull out, leave them to it and them come begging to us, no payment whatsoever, stop paying the annual payment ASAP, and let Ireland pay £350 millions in to Europe instead of us.

Re: General Election, and Brexit.

This is copied from the Conservative party manifesto

I have highlighted some of the more relevant paragraphs.

Our countryside communities
We will bring sustainable growth to the rural economy and boost our rural areas, so that
people who live in the countryside have the same opportunities as those who live in our
towns and cities.We have huge ambitions for our farming industry: we are determined to grow more, sell
more and export more great British food. We want to provide stability to farmers as we
leave the EU and set up new frameworks for supporting food production and stewardship
of the countryside. So we will continue to commit the same cash total in funds for farmsupport until the end of the parliament. We will work with farmers, food producers and
environmental experts across Britain and with the devolved administrations to devise a
new agri-environment system, to be introduced in the following parliament.
Our countryside and rural communities have been moulded by generations of farmers.
We will help Natural England to expand their provision of technical expertise to farmers
to deliver environmental improvements on a landscape scale, from enriching soil fertility
to planting hedgerows and building dry stone walls. We will deliver on our commitment
to improve natural flood management, such as improving the quality of water courses to
protect against soil erosion and damage to vulnerable habitats and communities. We will
continue to ensure that public forests and woodland are kept in trust for the nation, and
provide stronger protections for our ancient woodland.
We will continue to take action to improve animal welfare. We will implement
our proposed reforms on pet sales and licensing and will make CCTV recording in
slaughterhouses mandatory. As we leave the European Union, we can take early steps to
control the export of live farm animals for slaughter.
We will also take steps to enhance the provision of public services in rural areas. We
will safeguard the post office network, to protect existing rural services and work with
the Post Office to extend the availability of business and banking services to families
and small businesses in rural areas. A third of all SMEs in rural areas use their post
office weekly and our ambition is that all routine small business and consumer banking
services should be available in rural post offices. We will support pharmacies and village
schools in rural areas.
We will grant a free vote, on a government bill in government time, to give parliament the
opportunity to decide the future of the Hunting Act.
Finally, we pledge to be the first generation to leave the environment in a better state than
we inherited it. That is why we shall produce a comprehensive 25 Year Environment Plan
that will chart how we will improve our environment as we leave the European Union
and take control of our environmental legislation again.