Abstract
BACKGROUND: Organ failure determines outcome in acute pancreatitis (AP). It is controversial if infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is also an independent determinant of mortality. We hypothesized that the predictors of mortality in AP might have changed with advances in management and consequent decline in mortality over the past decades. Our objective was to study the predictors of mortality in patients with AP.
METHODS: Consecutive patients with a first episode of AP hospitalized from January 2015 to December 2016 were included in an observational study. Patients with IPN were treated with a conservative first approach followed by intervention. Necrosectomy, if required, was delayed beyond 4 weeks and done primarily employing minimally invasive techniques. The primary outcome measure was independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.
RESULTS: Of 209 patients with AP, 81 (39%) had persistent organ failure (OF) and 108 (52%) developed IPN. Overall, 46/209 (22%) patients died. Independent predictors of mortality were OF (odds ratio [OR]19; 95% CI: 6.1-58.8), and IPN due to infection with multidrug resistant (MDR) organisms (OR: 8.4; 95% CI:3.1-22.5). Infected pancreatic necrosis by itself was not found to be a significant predictor of mortality (OR 2; 95% CI: 0.4-9.5).
CONCLUSION: Persistent OF and complicated IPN due to MDR infection were independent predictors of mortality in patients with AP. Renewed efforts to prevent MDR infection with antibiotic stewardship and strategies for early control of sepsis are urgently required.