Global emissions pause comes amid China's clean energy push

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Workers walk among newly installed solar panels at a solar power plant in Zhouquan township of Tongxiang, Zhejiang province in China.

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China is in the midst of a historic transformation, and the surprising progress the country has made at energy efficiency has raised hopes that the world may get a grip on global greenhouse gas emissions much sooner than expected.

As a result of the progress China is making in cleaning up its industrial sector, global greenhouse gas emissions hit the pause button in 2014, the first time that has happened in four decades (absent a major economic contraction). The International Energy Agencysaid on March 13 that global greenhouse gas emissions hit 32.3 billion tons in 2014, the same level as the year before.

The Chinese government has targeted pollution reduction as a top priority. It has set a ceiling on its coal consumption at 4.2 billion tons per year by 2020. Only a few short years ago that seemed laughably implausible, but China surprised the world when it reported that it actually saw coal consumption dip in 2014.

Cutting coal consumption fits neatly into the Chinese government’s apparent goal of shifting its economy from export-driven heavy industry, to a consumer economy. In practice, that means forcing the closure of dirty factories.

Hebei saw 15 million metric tons of steelmaking capacity shuttered in 2014. The central government plans on closing 60 out of the 250 million metric tons of steelmaking capacity in the province over the next five years, according to theWall Street Journal.

The shift to prioritize air quality has paid dividends – both China’s coal consumption and its overall greenhouse gas emissions have declined for the first time in years. “This gives me even more hope that humankind will be able to work together to combat climate change, the most important threat facing us today,” the IEA’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol said in a March 13 statement.

Hebei Iron and Steel Group, a Chinese steelmaking giant, plans on building a factory in South Africa with the capacity to produce 5 million tons. There are more plants in the works in South Africa and Thailand as well. Pushed out of the country by tighter policies emanating from Beijing, China’s major industries are simply picking up and moving somewhere else. That may be good for China, but it does very little for global emissions.

Even if cuts to industrial activity do in fact lead to global environmental benefit, there are questions about how far the Chinese government is willing to go. Another challenge for the country is potential economic disruption from a drastic cutback in industrial activity. Hebei could see job losses approaching 200,000 if the central government’s plans are carried out in full. Much of the steel capacity closed down in the past year included factories that were already idle, meaning that further cuts will likely hit jobs worse than they have up until now. In 2009, asteel manager was killed by workers when he threatened to lay off workers.

For years, the Chinese government sought economic growth at all costs as an answer to political stability. Suddenly, heavily polluted air has become a top concern. Somehow the government will need to navigate these twin threats. Meanwhile, the ability of the world to tackle global climate change hangs in the balance.