Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review: 7/8/18

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Louisville Bats

The Bats won 6-1 on Sunday afternoon, improving to 35-50 on the year. Box Score

Mason Williams went 1-5. He was named to the International League All-Star team over the weekend as a replacement for someone who was unavailable.

Phillip Ervin went 2-4 with 2 RBI as he continues to just destroy the baseball. He’s up to .288/.373/.473 on the season in 41 games with the Bats and he’s at .444 over his last 10 games – 7 games of which are multi-hit games.

Brandon Dixon went 2-4 with a double and a run scored. He’s 4-12 since coming back from Cincinnati.

Gabby Guerrero went 2-4 with a solo home run and 2 runs scored. The home run was an opposite field blast and his 8th of the season.

Keury Mella was charged with an unearned run in 5.0 innings with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts. He threw 84 pitches with 55 strikes, and had 5 ground outs with 4 fly outs. His fastball was working in the 93-95 MPH range on the day. This was his first start at Triple-A this season. He had one previous start in Triple-A, back in 2016, in the final game of the year as a spot starter when the Bats lost players to September call ups.

Homer Bailey pitched out of the bullpen for the first time on rehab. He threw 2.0 shutout innings, allowing a hit, walking 2, and he struck out a batter. He threw 42 pitches with 25 strikes in the game.

Tommy Bergjans threw 7.0 shutout innings with a walk and 3 strikeouts. He threw 77 pitches with 55 strikes, and had 4 ground outs with 8 fly outs.He lowered his ERA to 2.93 in 5 starts with the Tortugas.

Michael Byrne allowed a run in an inning with a strikeout. This was his professional debut – he was the Reds 14th round pick this year.

Jared Solomon was charged with an unearned run in 5.0 innings with a walk and 7 strikeouts. He threw 78 pitches with 54 strikes, and he had 4 ground outs with 4 fly outs. He now has a 1.00 ERA through 5 starts, spanning 27.0 innings this season with just 14 hits allowed, 7 walks, and he has 30 strikeouts.

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Given his solid contact rate (22.2% K rate) and solid power and bat speed, I’m a bit surprised Jeter Downs is only hitting .265. He’s got a very good 10.2% walk rate to go with it as well. I could see him progressing with the bat very similarly to what we’ve seen from Taylor Trammell. His K rate is up from last year, but his power is also up slightly going from the very hitter friendly Billings, to the hitter neutral Dayton. I think over the last third of the season and into next year we see that K rate get back to that 15-16% rate he had last year, while keeping his improvements in power and walk rate. He’s a 2B, but I think he’s going to be a good one.

If Billy were traded, you’d see Schebler as the regular CF with Winker in RF. Ervin likely 4th OF. Ervin’s done nothing to move him ahead of any of those 3 in the lineup. Plus if Billy’s moved, I think they’d go after someone who could replace him in CF or have that in the works for another trade.

In Daytona last night to see Byrne make his debut. Looked like some nerves initially then got out of a potential mess with some nice D. Howard followed and started by almost beheading the lead off batter. He was all over the place then was fortunate to throw a double play inducing ground ball. He walked the next guy before finally pulling it together. He really seems to have no idea where the ball was going half the time. It’s too bad.

I constantly read here about challenging the Top prospects by pushing them up the system. Howard might be an example of how this can have a negative impact. By after draft, sending him directly to Dayton, skipping rookie ball and then to AzFL after a full extended (College World Series) college season. He was over challenged and over used. With less than positive success, I expected him back in Dayton the following year for his first full season but they challenged him by sending him to Daytona where he failed miserably and came up with a sore arm. Not a poor draft pick but a poor development plan. Former major league pitching coach Mack Jenkins was the minor league pitching coordinator at the time. I hope Byrne is different.

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