BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95\% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95\% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6{\textperiodcentered}2 years (95\% UI 5{\textperiodcentered}6-6{\textperiodcentered}6), from 65{\textperiodcentered}3 years (65{\textperiodcentered}0-65{\textperiodcentered}6) in 1990 to 71{\textperiodcentered}5 years (71{\textperiodcentered}0-71{\textperiodcentered}9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5{\textperiodcentered}4 years (4{\textperiodcentered}9-5{\textperiodcentered}8), from 56{\textperiodcentered}9 years (54{\textperiodcentered}5-59{\textperiodcentered}1) to 62{\textperiodcentered}3 years (59{\textperiodcentered}7-64{\textperiodcentered}8), total DALYs fell by 3{\textperiodcentered}6\% (0{\textperiodcentered}3-7{\textperiodcentered}4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26{\textperiodcentered}7\% (24{\textperiodcentered}6-29{\textperiodcentered}1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50\% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10\% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation.

},
keywords = {Aged, Chronic Disease, Communicable Diseases, Female, Global Health, Health Transition, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Premature, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Socioeconomic Factors, Wounds and Injuries},
issn = {1474-547X},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-X},
author = {Murray, Christopher J L and Barber, Ryan M and Foreman, Kyle J and Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abera, Semaw F and Aboyans, Victor and Abraham, Jerry P and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Raddad, Laith J and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M and Achoki, Tom and Ackerman, Ilana N and Ademi, Zanfina and Adou, Ars{\`e}ne K and Adsuar, Jos{\'e} C and Afshin, Ashkan and Agardh, Emilie E and Alam, Sayed Saidul and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed I and Alegretti, Miguel A and Alemu, Zewdie A and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Raghib and Alla, Fran{\c c}ois and Allebeck, Peter and AlMazroa, Mohammad A and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alvis-Guzm{\'a}n, Nelson and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ameh, Emmanuel A and Amini, Heresh and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, H Ross and Anderson, Benjamin O and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Anwari, Palwasha and Arnl{\"o}v, Johan and Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S and Artaman, Al and Asghar, Rana J and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S and Avila, Marco A and Awuah, Baffour and Bachman, Victoria F and Badawi, Alaa and Bahit, Maria C and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Banerjee, Amitava and Barker-Collo, Suzanne L and Barquera, Simon and Barregard, Lars and Barrero, Lope H and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Basulaiman, Mohammed O and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Beghi, Ettore and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Benjet, Corina and Bennett, Derrick A and Bensenor, Isabela M and Benzian, Habib and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia and Beyene, Tariku J and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Bienhoff, Kelly and Bikbov, Boris and Biryukov, Stan and Blore, Jed D and Blosser, Christopher D and Blyth, Fiona M and Bohensky, Megan A and Bolliger, Ian W and Bora Ba{\c s}ara, Berrak and Bornstein, Natan M and Bose, Dipan and Boufous, Soufiane and Bourne, Rupert R A and Boyers, Lindsay N and Brainin, Michael and Brayne, Carol E and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas J K and Brenner, Hermann and Briggs, Adam D and Brooks, Peter M and Brown, Jonathan C and Brugha, Traolach S and Buchbinder, Rachelle and Buckle, Geoffrey C and Budke, Christine M and Bulchis, Anne and Bulloch, Andrew G and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Carabin, H{\'e}l{\`e}ne and Carapetis, Jonathan R and C{\'a}rdenas, Rosario and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castro, Ruben E and Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez, Ferr{\'a}n and Cavalleri, Fiorella and Cavlin, Alanur and Chadha, Vineet K and Chang, Jung-Chen and Charlson, Fiona J and Chen, Honglei and Chen, Wanqing and Chiang, Peggy P and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christensen, Hanne and Christophi, Costas A and Cirillo, Massimo and Coates, Matthew M and Coffeng, Luc E and Coggeshall, Megan S and Colistro, Valentina and Colquhoun, Samantha M and Cooke, Graham S and Cooper, Cyrus and Cooper, Leslie T and Coppola, Luis M and Cortinovis, Monica and Criqui, Michael H and Crump, John A and Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia and Danawi, Hadi and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dansereau, Emily and Dargan, Paul I and Davey, Gail and Davis, Adrian and Davitoiu, Dragos V and Dayama, Anand and De Leo, Diego and Degenhardt, Louisa and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Dellavalle, Robert P and Deribe, Kebede and Derrett, Sarah and Des Jarlais, Don C and Dessalegn, Muluken and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Diaz-Torn{\'e}, Cesar and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L and Dokova, Klara and Dorsey, E Ray and Driscoll, Tim R and Duan, Leilei and Duber, Herbert C and Ebel, Beth E and Edmond, Karen M and Elshrek, Yousef M and Endres, Matthias and Ermakov, Sergey P and Erskine, Holly E and Eshrati, Babak and Esteghamati, Alireza and Estep, Kara and Faraon, Emerito Jose A and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fay, Derek F and Feigin, Valery L and Felson, David T and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Jefferson G and Ferrari, Alize J and Fitzmaurice, Christina and Flaxman, Abraham D and Fleming, Thomas D and Foigt, Nataliya and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Fowkes, F Gerry R and Paleo, Urbano Fra and Franklin, Richard C and F{\"u}rst, Thomas and Gabbe, Belinda and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gankp{\'e}, Fortun{\'e} G and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Gething, Peter and Gibney, Katherine B and Giroud, Maurice and Giussani, Giorgia and Gomez Dantes, Hector and Gona, Philimon and Gonzalez-Medina, Diego and Gosselin, Richard A and Gotay, Carolyn C and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Graetz, Nicholas and Gugnani, Harish C and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Guti{\'e}rrez, Reyna A and Haagsma, Juanita and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hagan, Holly and Halasa, Yara A and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hamavid, Hannah and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hancock, Jamie and Hankey, Graeme J and Hansen, Gillian M and Hao, Yuantao and Harb, Hilda L and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Simon I and Hay, Roderick J and Heredia-Pi, Ileana B and Heuton, Kyle R and Heydarpour, Pouria and Higashi, Hideki and Hijar, Martha and Hoek, Hans W and Hoffman, Howard J and Hosgood, H Dean and Hossain, Mazeda and Hotez, Peter J and Hoy, Damian G and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hu, Guoqing and Huang, Cheng and Huang, John J and Husseini, Abdullatif and Huynh, Chantal and Iannarone, Marissa L and Iburg, Kim M and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Islami, Farhad and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jarvis, Deborah L and Jassal, Simerjot K and Jee, Sun Ha and Jeemon, Panniyammakal and Jensen, Paul N and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jiang, Ying and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kan, Haidong and Karch, Andr{\'e} and Karema, Corine K and Karimkhani, Chante and Karthikeyan, Ganesan and Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazanjan, Konstantin and Kemp, Andrew H and Kengne, Andre P and Keren, Andre and Khader, Yousef S and Khalifa, Shams Eldin A and Khan, Ejaz A and Khan, Gulfaraz and Khang, Young-Ho and Kieling, Christian and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Sungroul and Kim, Yunjin and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kivipelto, Miia and Knibbs, Luke D and Knudsen, Ann Kristin and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Krishnaswami, Sanjay and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kucuk Bicer, Burcu and Kuipers, Ernst J and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S and Kumar, G Anil and Kyu, Hmwe H and Lai, Taavi and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lallukka, Tea and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C and Larsson, Anders and Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B and Leasher, Janet L and Leigh, James and Leung, Ricky and Levitz, Carly E and Li, Bin and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Lim, Stephen S and Lind, Maggie and Lipshultz, Steven E and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K and Lofgren, Katherine T and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Looker, Katharine J and Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lozano, Rafael and Lucas, Robyn M and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan A and Ma, Stefan and MacIntyre, Michael F and Mackay, Mark T and Majdan, Marek and Malekzadeh, Reza and Marcenes, Wagner and Margolis, David J and Margono, Christopher and Marzan, Melvin B and Masci, Joseph R and Mashal, Mohammad T and Matzopoulos, Richard and Mayosi, Bongani M and Mazorodze, Tasara T and Mcgill, Neil W and McGrath, John J and McKee, Martin and McLain, Abigail and Meaney, Peter A and Medina, Catalina and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mekonnen, Wubegzier and Melaku, Yohannes A and Meltzer, Michele and Memish, Ziad A and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Mhimbira, Francis A and Micha, Renata and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mitchell, Philip B and Mock, Charles N and Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah and Mohammad, Karzan A and Mokdad, Ali H and Mola, Glen L D and Monasta, Lorenzo and Monta{\~n}ez Hernandez, Julio C and Montico, Marcella and Montine, Thomas J and Mooney, Meghan D and Moore, Ami R and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moran, Andrew E and Mori, Rintaro and Moschandreas, Joanna and Moturi, Wilkister N and Moyer, Madeline L and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Msemburi, William T and Mueller, Ulrich O and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Mullany, Erin C and Murdoch, Michele E and Murray, Joseph and Murthy, Kinnari S and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S and Naldi, Luigi and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K M Venkat and Nejjari, Chakib and Neupane, Sudan P and Newton, Charles R and Ng, Marie and Ngalesoni, Frida N and Nguyen, Grant and Nisar, Muhammad I and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F and Norman, Rosana E and Norrving, Bo and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Oh, In-Hwan and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Ohno, Summer L and Olusanya, Bolajoko O and Opio, John Nelson and Ortblad, Katrina and Ortiz, Alberto and Pain, Amanda W and Pandian, Jeyaraj D and Panelo, Carlo Irwin A and Papachristou, Christina and Park, Eun-Kee and Park, Jae-Hyun and Patten, Scott B and Patton, George C and Paul, Vinod K and Pavlin, Boris I and Pearce, Neil and Pereira, David M and Perez-Padilla, Rogelio and Perez-Ruiz, Fernando and Perico, Norberto and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peterson, Carrie B and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Michael R and Phillips, Bryan K and Phillips, David E and Piel, Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric B and Plass, Dietrich and Poenaru, Dan and Polinder, Suzanne and Pope, Daniel and Popova, Svetlana and Poulton, Richie G and Pourmalek, Farshad and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Prasad, Noela M and Pullan, Rachel L and Qato, Dima M and Quistberg, D Alex and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahman, Sajjad U and Raju, Murugesan and Rana, Saleem M and Razavi, Homie and Reddy, K Srinath and Refaat, Amany and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Resnikoff, Serge and Ribeiro, Antonio L and Richardson, Lee and Richardus, Jan Hendrik and Roberts, D Allen and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Roth, Gregory A and Rothenbacher, Dietrich and Rothstein, David H and Rowley, Jane T and Roy, Nobhojit and Ruhago, George M and Saeedi, Mohammad Y and Saha, Sukanta and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Sampson, Uchechukwu K A and Sanabria, Juan R and Sandar, Logan and Santos, Itamar S and Satpathy, Maheswar and Sawhney, Monika and Scarborough, Peter and Schneider, Ione J and Sch{\"o}ttker, Ben and Schumacher, Austin E and Schwebel, David C and Scott, James G and Seedat, Soraya and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serina, Peter T and Servan-Mori, Edson E and Shackelford, Katya A and Shaheen, Amira and Shahraz, Saeid and Shamah Levy, Teresa and Shangguan, Siyi and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shi, Peilin and Shibuya, Kenji and Shinohara, Yukito and Shiri, Rahman and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Shrime, Mark G and Sigfusdottir, Inga D and Silberberg, Donald H and Simard, Edgar P and Sindi, Shireen and Singh, Abhishek and Singh, Jasvinder A and Singh, Lavanya and Skirbekk, Vegard and Slepak, Erica Leigh and Sliwa, Karen and Soneji, Samir and S{\o}reide, Kjetil and Soshnikov, Sergey and Sposato, Luciano A and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stanaway, Jeffrey D and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki and Stein, Dan J and Stein, Murray B and Steiner, Caitlyn and Steiner, Timothy J and Stevens, Antony and Stewart, Andrea and Stovner, Lars J and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sunguya, Bruno F and Swaminathan, Soumya and Swaroop, Mamta and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabb, Karen M and Takahashi, Ken and Tandon, Nikhil and Tanne, David and Tanner, Marcel and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Taylor, Hugh R and Te Ao, Braden J and Tediosi, Fabrizio and Temesgen, Awoke M and Templin, Tara and Ten Have, Margreet and Tenkorang, Eric Y and Terkawi, Abdullah S and Thomson, Blake and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Thrift, Amanda G and Thurston, George D and Tillmann, Taavi and Tonelli, Marcello and Topouzis, Fotis and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X and Trillini, Matias and Truelsen, Thomas and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Tuzcu, Emin M and Uchendu, Uche S and Ukwaja, Kingsley N and Undurraga, Eduardo A and Uzun, Selen B and Van Brakel, Wim H and van de Vijver, Steven and van Gool, Coen H and van Os, Jim and Vasankari, Tommi J and Venketasubramanian, N and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasiliy V and Vollset, Stein Emil and Wagner, Gregory R and Wagner, Joseph and Waller, Stephen G and Wan, Xia and Wang, Haidong and Wang, JianLi and Wang, Linhong and Warouw, Tati S and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Wenzhi, Wang and Werdecker, Andrea and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey A and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Thomas N and Wolfe, Charles D and Wolock, Timothy M and Woolf, Anthony D and Wulf, Sarah and Wurtz, Brittany and Xu, Gelin and Yan, Lijing L and Yano, Yuichiro and Ye, Pengpeng and Yent{\"u}r, G{\"o}kalp K and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yu, Chuanhua and Zaki, Maysaa E and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zonies, David and Zou, Xiaonong and Salomon, Joshua A and Lopez, Alan D and Vos, Theo}
}