Guys, this is nuts. Before any negative nancies/cbooms/mikeaks start whining about how it means nothing because the Cardinals are horrible, read that article, and then remember that Football Outsiders accounts for how good or bad the opponent is, and either pads your rankings if you faced a good opponent, or lowers them if you faced a bad one. Despite that, we moved up. This is awesome news.

It is so key to get hot at the end of the season... Seems like the latest SB teams have all been somewhat good/mediocre and then gotten hot at the end of the year... NYG, AZ are 2 I can think of off the top of my head. We'll see what happens in Toronto on Sunday, but this is good! I'm getting fired up.

TriC, there's actually an article on that somewhere on the Football Outsiders website; I read it yesterday. It talked about how most of the winners in the past decade of the Super Bowl have been teams that got hot towards the end, and not teams that had better records that were better for the whole year. Hell, look at the Giants; their last two Super Bowl trophies, they had a semi-decent 11-5 record on the first one, and 9-7 wild card on the second one. (I might have that reversed.)

Also, I Tweeted Doug Farrar a question, (he's the one I saw the article in this thread from, on Twitter) and he replied; looks like he's a believer, assuming we have Sherman.

James Barr ‏@RageFury100@SC_DougFarrar Think the #seahawks are poised to make some major noise in the play-offs?

SC_DougFarrar ‏@SC_DougFarrar@RageFury100 Depends on the Sherman suspension. They lose maybe the NFL's best CB, it's a major problem. Otherwise, really solid.

I'm a bit of an advanced stats geek I enjoy them. One thing that I like about DVOAs and what they do at Footballoutsiders is they are transparent in they way they go about it, they explain everything, show how it's calculated and will admit where there are problems. Unlike, say QBR which they claim things like win probability or clutch index but never actually explain how those are calculated they're just...assigned.

Anyways cool to see us up this high, consider this, last year after week 14 our DVOA ranks were:

Overall: 20thOffense: 24thDefense: 10thSpecial Teams: 14th

We've really come a long way this year especially considering how tough our schedule has been. The offense has really come along as well.

Last edited by the ditch on Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Funny, but everyone says the Cardinals are a very bad team. Here's the thing (and it's a point concerning so many other things...Flynn's performance against Detroit, Pats blowing people out, etc.):

I didn't see anyone else beating the Cards 58-0. Sure, they're bad, but that was a historical beat down. It's only happened a few other times since freakin 1940. So, while some claim it's a bad Cards team, it was also a good Seahawks team, defending their own turf, and doing everything right.

I hope this and the CHI win gives us confidence and momentum to go in and just thrash the Bills. Then we're riding an avalanche of momentum for the NFC West championship game in Seattle.

Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

It is rather difficult to polish your DVOA trophy, though. The Lombardi shine up rather nicely, on the other hand.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

It is rather difficult to polish your DVOA trophy, though. The Lombardi shine up rather nicely, on the other hand.

I'd be willing to bet on these Seahawks over the Texans and definitely the Colts in the Superbowl. Easy decision.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

It is rather difficult to polish your DVOA trophy, though. The Lombardi shine up rather nicely, on the other hand.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

But to say we're one of the top teams in the last 15 years ? I just can't see it. Our offense was poor early, now it's getting good. Our defense was elite early, not it's just merely good.

I think we have played a historically difficult schedule and have been fairly successful.

We beat New England - a team with one of the best DVOAs in the past 15 years - and kept them to 23 points.

We kept the Packers to 12 (regardless of how many we were supposed to score.)

The only other offenses to play superiorly against us were Detroit's #1 passing game and Minnesota's #1 running game. Tannenhil had a Pro Bowl quarter which, to me, is about the only anomaly in our defense this season.

We blew out the Cowboys - a playoffs contender.

We blew out the Jets - an outside playoff contender.

We beat Chicago, in Chicago - one of the best defenses, statistically speaking, ever.

We had one of the biggest shutouts in the history of the league.

We haven't been blown out - only New England has a better loss profile than us. All our losses were close games on the road.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

That is why is put that caveat about the playoff run.

But wins are really all that matters. You can keep having this great DVOA team, but at some point that has to equal wins (it should right?). Wins are what gets you into the playoffs and is the difference between a road game and home playoff game.

Sorry but we pissed away games this year that an elite team does not piss away. Maybe we are hitting our stride right now? Perhaps, but that is yet to be determined. Keep winning and my pessimism will fade.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

That is why is put that caveat about the playoff run.

But wins are really all that matters. You can keep having this great DVOA team, but at some point that has to equal wins (it should right?). Wins are what gets you into the playoffs and is the difference between a road game and home playoff game.

Sorry but we pissed away games this year that an elite team does not piss away. Maybe we are hitting our stride right now? Perhaps, but that is yet to be determined. Keep winning and my pessimism will fade.

We pissed away games this year that elite teams HAVE pissed away time and time again over the years.

You don't recall the SB-era Patriots losing to Miami like clockwork when Miami was among the dregs of the league?

You don't remember the elite Giants sitting at 7-7 after 14 games last season?

You don't remember the 2010 SB Champion Packers losing 2 in a row to the Dolphins and Redskins - 2 teams that finished below .500?

What about the Saints' 3-game losing streak to end the 2009 regular season, which included losses at home to 2 division rivals?

The 2006 Colts lost 4 of their last 8, only one of which was to a team with a winning record.

Honestly, some folks here seem to want to hold the Seahawks to a ridiculous standard that really has no basis in reality. Elite teams... CHAMPIONSHIP teams... they don't win every damn game. They don't ALWAYS beat lesser teams. They sometimes stumble. They sometimes overlook an opponent. It happens. Every. Single. Year.

The important thing is that those championship-caliber teams RECOVER from those stumbles. They fix the problems. They get hot at the right time. That's what matters.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

That is why is put that caveat about the playoff run.

But wins are really all that matters. You can keep having this great DVOA team, but at some point that has to equal wins (it should right?). Wins are what gets you into the playoffs and is the difference between a road game and home playoff game.

Sorry but we pissed away games this year that an elite team does not piss away. Maybe we are hitting our stride right now? Perhaps, but that is yet to be determined. Keep winning and my pessimism will fade.

We pissed away games this year that elite teams HAVE pissed away time and time again over the years.

You don't recall the SB-era Patriots losing to Miami like clockwork when Miami was among the dregs of the league?

You don't remember the elite Giants sitting at 7-7 after 14 games last season?

You don't remember the 2010 SB Champion Packers losing 2 in a row to the Dolphins and Redskins - 2 teams that finished below .500?

What about the Saints' 3-game losing streak to end the 2009 regular season, which included losses at home to 2 division rivals?

The 2006 Colts lost 4 of their last 8, only one of which was to a team with a winning record.

Honestly, some folks here seem to want to hold the Seahawks to a ridiculous standard that really has no basis in reality. Elite teams... CHAMPIONSHIP teams... they don't win every damn game. They don't ALWAYS beat lesser teams. They sometimes stumble. They sometimes overlook an opponent. It happens. Every. Single. Year.

The important thing is that those championship-caliber teams RECOVER from those stumbles. They fix the problems. They get hot at the right time. That's what matters.

Then lets see us do that. It is what I expect and what I want to see. I dont ignore issues on our team. Pissing away last min leads against the Lions and the Dolphins will reveal chinks in the armor. Like i said... I dont ignore issues on our team.

kearly wrote:Sorry tech, but I couldn't disagree more. I wouldn't trade this roster for the Texans, the Falcons, or the Colts- all of whom currently have more wins than we do. Using wins to evaluate how good a team is completely misses the mark.

That is why is put that caveat about the playoff run.

But wins are really all that matters. You can keep having this great DVOA team, but at some point that has to equal wins (it should right?). Wins are what gets you into the playoffs and is the difference between a road game and home playoff game.

Sorry but we pissed away games this year that an elite team does not piss away. Maybe we are hitting our stride right now? Perhaps, but that is yet to be determined. Keep winning and my pessimism will fade.

We pissed away games this year that elite teams HAVE pissed away time and time again over the years.

You don't recall the SB-era Patriots losing to Miami like clockwork when Miami was among the dregs of the league?

You don't remember the elite Giants sitting at 7-7 after 14 games last season?

You don't remember the 2010 SB Champion Packers losing 2 in a row to the Dolphins and Redskins - 2 teams that finished below .500?

What about the Saints' 3-game losing streak to end the 2009 regular season, which included losses at home to 2 division rivals?

The 2006 Colts lost 4 of their last 8, only one of which was to a team with a winning record.

Honestly, some folks here seem to want to hold the Seahawks to a ridiculous standard that really has no basis in reality. Elite teams... CHAMPIONSHIP teams... they don't win every damn game. They don't ALWAYS beat lesser teams. They sometimes stumble. They sometimes overlook an opponent. It happens. Every. Single. Year.

The important thing is that those championship-caliber teams RECOVER from those stumbles. They fix the problems. They get hot at the right time. That's what matters.

Tech, I was gonna try and call you out on just quoting records all the time, but Volsung probably did it better than I ever could

Records aren't everything. They are a lot, but not everything.

Like right now, if the Falcons and Hawks played on a neutral field, I think we'd kick the crap out of them. Just saying.

hawksfan515 wrote:Tech, I was gonna try and call you out on just quoting records all the time, but Volsung probably did it better than I ever could

Records aren't everything. They are a lot, but not everything.

Like right now, if the Falcons and Hawks played on a neutral field, I think we'd kick the crap out of them. Just saying.

But it wont be on a neutral field. You know why? Cause they won games that gave them the higher seed. I want us to win a championship. Lets go get it and to do so lets make it easier on us by winning against inferior teams so that we can make that road to the superbowl go thru Seattle.

hawksfan515 wrote:Tech, I was gonna try and call you out on just quoting records all the time, but Volsung probably did it better than I ever could

Records aren't everything. They are a lot, but not everything.

Like right now, if the Falcons and Hawks played on a neutral field, I think we'd kick the crap out of them. Just saying.

But it wont be on a neutral field. You know why? Cause they won games that gave them the higher seed. I want us to win a championship. Lets go get it and to do so lets make it easier on us by winning against inferior teams so that we can make that road to the superbowl go thru Seattle.

There you go much better!

Still, the season isn't over yet. we have a chance to prove ourselves against the Bills (who's record isn't true to their talent, they are average, at least, IMO), 9ers, and Rams. I think we can do the sweep. I think.

And wouldn't it be great to have RW's rookie season be the Seahawks 1st Superbowl???

Tech Worlds wrote:That is why is put that caveat about the playoff run.

But wins are really all that matters. You can keep having this great DVOA team, but at some point that has to equal wins (it should right?). Wins are what gets you into the playoffs and is the difference between a road game and home playoff game.

Sorry but we pissed away games this year that an elite team does not piss away. Maybe we are hitting our stride right now? Perhaps, but that is yet to be determined. Keep winning and my pessimism will fade.

We pissed away games this year that elite teams HAVE pissed away time and time again over the years.

You don't recall the SB-era Patriots losing to Miami like clockwork when Miami was among the dregs of the league?

You don't remember the elite Giants sitting at 7-7 after 14 games last season?

You don't remember the 2010 SB Champion Packers losing 2 in a row to the Dolphins and Redskins - 2 teams that finished below .500?

What about the Saints' 3-game losing streak to end the 2009 regular season, which included losses at home to 2 division rivals?

The 2006 Colts lost 4 of their last 8, only one of which was to a team with a winning record.

Honestly, some folks here seem to want to hold the Seahawks to a ridiculous standard that really has no basis in reality. Elite teams... CHAMPIONSHIP teams... they don't win every damn game. They don't ALWAYS beat lesser teams. They sometimes stumble. They sometimes overlook an opponent. It happens. Every. Single. Year.

The important thing is that those championship-caliber teams RECOVER from those stumbles. They fix the problems. They get hot at the right time. That's what matters.

Then lets see us do that. It is what I expect and what I want to see. I dont ignore issues on our team. Pissing away last min leads against the Lions and the Dolphins will reveal chinks in the armor. Like i said... I dont ignore issues on our team.

I drink the koolaid just like you guys do. I just dont bathe in it.

Isn't that what we're in the midst of doing? We broke in a new QB and an offense without much chemistry over the first half of the season against one of the toughest schedules in the league (not to mention with 5 of the 8 games on the road) and went 4-4, including wins over teams like the Packers and Pats. Since then, we've gone 4-1... demolishing the bad teams, handling the average teams, and even beating a good team on the road. One slip against Miami doesn't negate all of that. Isn't that 4-1 record since the halfway point evidence of recovering from early stumbles? Aren't the 2 games since Miami evidence of the team fixing issues that were evident in the Miami game?

I don't know, man. It sometimes seems like there's this black hole of damaged psyche in the Seattle fanbase that can never be filled regardless of how well the team plays. We can go 5-0 at home and still have people in a panic over the thought of facing John Skelton. We can beat the Bears with an outstanding clutch offensive performance and still not trust the offense to win on the road. It's like nothing is ever good enough. It's letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

On Sunday, I couldn't help but think about Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys. His collegiate level of enthusiasm and unapolegtic willingness to stomp on your throat. Young, superior athletes across the different position groups. Depth that plays nearly as well as the starters. Team attitude to physically impose will. No legitimate weaknesses. And the best part is that we're just getting started. Schneider is going to continue reloading this roster thru the draft.

Jac wrote:On Sunday, I couldn't help but think about Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys. His collegiate level of enthusiasm and unapolegtic willingness to stomp on your throat. Young, superior athletes across the different position groups. Depth that plays nearly as well as the starters. Team attitude to physically impose will. No legitimate weaknesses. And the best part is that we're just getting started. Schneider is going to continue reloading this roster thru the draft.

Yeah. If you really think about it, the only reason we are so good is because Schneider is amazing at finding late round talent. If we could not find any starters 3rd round or later, our team needs would look more like this:

QB (Wilson was drafted in the 3rd)OLB (KJ in the 4th)OLB (Malcolm Smith was drafted in the 7th)SS (Kam in the 5th)CB (Sherman in the 5th)

That's a lot of needs, and all of them are 1st/2nd round worthy, and we've filled pretty much all of them with 3rd rounders or later.

I think we are doing great actually compared to what I expected w/ rookie QB starting and a very young team. I fully expected a up/down inconsistant struggling team as RW and the youngsters learned/developed. I think we saw a lot of that early on while still winning enough games to keep us in the fight (playoff potential). I think the coaches also had to learn what we could and couldn't do to develope our youngins. Now, we are starting to reap the rewards of our efforts. Clearly, the O and RW has improved vastly and continue to develope as the coaches feel much more comfortable about opening it up. The D may have slipped a bit as some chinks in the armor got revealed but are still playing pretty damn good. ST's is still a force in the league and seems to be improving as well.

End result, we are poised for a strong finish to the regular season w/ an incredible post season opportunities. The future appears so bright as well as we add a couple more key pieces in the offseason....the potential damage we look to be capable of causing next year is what really makes me giddy. If we go on a tear here to end the season, can you imagine hitting next season w/out so many of the early issues we fought thru this year.

At least three of our losses have come, flat-out, from not letting Wilson be more of a passing quarterback and bad play-calling. (The two being linked, in my opinion.) One other, Miami, was more of a defense-crapped-their-pants-at-the-wrong-time situation with a sprinkle of crap play-calling on the final stalled drive for our offense. If we win out, I see us having 12+ wins next year for sure.

volsunghawk wrote:Isn't that what we're in the midst of doing? We broke in a new QB and an offense without much chemistry over the first half of the season against one of the toughest schedules in the league (not to mention with 5 of the 8 games on the road) and went 4-4, including wins over teams like the Packers and Pats. Since then, we've gone 4-1... demolishing the bad teams, handling the average teams, and even beating a good team on the road. One slip against Miami doesn't negate all of that. Isn't that 4-1 record since the halfway point evidence of recovering from early stumbles? Aren't the 2 games since Miami evidence of the team fixing issues that were evident in the Miami game?

I don't know, man. It sometimes seems like there's this black hole of damaged psyche in the Seattle fanbase that can never be filled regardless of how well the team plays. We can go 5-0 at home and still have people in a panic over the thought of facing John Skelton. We can beat the Bears with an outstanding clutch offensive performance and still not trust the offense to win on the road. It's like nothing is ever good enough. It's letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Someone needs to frame this response. This team is really, really, really exciting right now, and I think we all know that we're going to make it to the playoffs and we have the team capable of making the deep run. (Which is why the stats are so nice. They tell us that, not only is it possible, but it's likely).

I'm getting the impression a few people are afraid to get their hopes up because they're more afraid of having them dashed than having them fulfilled. They don't want to deal with any negative outcome, so it's better to write it off early.