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Should the TTC double down on its troubled streetcar order, or abandon plans to increase the size of its fleet and buy new buses instead?

It’s a question the transit agency is grappling with and will likely have to answer in the coming months.

The TTC placed an order with Bombardier for 204 new streetcars back in 2009. The $1.2-billion purchase has been marred by delays, but the transit agency is effectively locked into the order and hopes to get all of its new vehicles by 2019. Bombardier says it has made changes to its production line that will enable it to meet the 2019 deadline.

At issue is an option under the TTC’s contract with the Quebec-based rail manufacturer to purchase an additional 60 new cars at a cost of $361 million.

TTC staff have recommended picking up the option, and it’s been included in the agency’s proposed 2017 capital budget.

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In a 2015 report, TTC staff said the additional cars would be crucial to meeting rising streetcar demand caused by booming residential growth downtown. The 60 added vehicles would bring the size of the TTC’s new streetcar fleet to 264, increasing the streetcar network’s capacity by 70 per cent compared with current levels, according to the report.

But TTC leaders said this week they’re considering not buying the additional cars, citing Bombardier’s production delays, the high cost of keeping outdated streetcars on the road, and an injection of federal funding that could make a swift purchase of new buses from another company a more attractive option.

TTC CEO Andy Byford said the agency’s clear preference would be to buy more streetcars.

“The intention would be to continue with streetcars because that’s the path which we embarked upon some time ago,” he said. “But we’re keeping our options open deliberately.”

If the TTC doesn’t pick up the option, it would run new buses on some of its streetcar lines, something it already does on the crowded 504 King route, where buses and streetcars operate at the same time.

Byford said it’s “inherently inefficient” to run buses on streetcar routes because the TTC’s largest buses have about half the passenger capacity of the new streetcars, requiring the agency to pay twice the number of operators for the same level of service.

Buying new buses would also probably require the TTC to build another garage to accommodate the expanded fleet.

According to TTC chair Josh Colle, the transit agency has been considering not picking up the option “for some time” as part of “our ongoing dramas and pressures with Bombardier.”

Under the terms of the original delivery schedule, Bombardier was to have supplied 73 streetcars by the end of 2015. The TTC has received only 23 so far.

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What Bombardier's failure to deliver Toronto's new streetcars teaches us about the pitfalls of globalization.

The delays have been costly for the TTC, forcing the commission to spend $35 million to keep some of its older streetcars on the road until the new ones arrive.

According to Colle, the recent announcement of federal funding for public transit projects has added impetus to the debate about picking up the option.

Ottawa has attached strict criteria to accessing money under its public transit infrastructure fund — to be eligible for the first phase of funding, projects must be complete by March 2018. Colle said buying new buses would probably be among a limited number of projects that could be delivered within the government’s “tight time frames.”

It would also allow the TTC to put more transit on the road sooner, rather than waiting for more streetcars to arrive.

“I think there’s just this confluence of things happening: federal money, maintenance pressures . . . and an order that doesn’t seem to be coming in,” said Colle.

“So at a certain point you have to make a decision, because those costs and pressures are just increasing.”

A Bombardier spokesman declined to weigh in on the possibility of the TTC not picking up its option, telling the Star the company “does not comment on orders that have not been assigned.”

Bombardier has stressed that it has made changes to its production line that will enable it to ramp up delivery and meet the 2019 deadline for the TTC’s order of 204 cars.

Under the terms of the contract, the TTC will have to decide whether to exercise its option for additional cars before Bombardier delivers the 60th vehicle of the original purchase. That’s expected to happen next fall.

Deputy Mayor Denzil Minnan-Wong, who sits on the TTC board, said he’s wary of placing another order with Bombardier.

“Why would we order more streetcars just to be further disappointed?” he said, adding that the commission’s board will have to determine whether buses are a workable alternative.

Councillor Gord Perks (Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park) said it’s essential to order additional streetcars to maintain existing service levels and meet future demand. Without the 60 optional cars, the TTC would run its new streetcars at less frequent intervals than the current fleet, which Perks argued would be “a de facto cut to the quality of transit service.”

He said that ideally Bombardier would supply the cars, but if the TTC doesn’t believe that’s possible it should attempt to purchase them from another company. That would be a complicated process, as the entire streetcar network is being overhauled to fit the design of the Bombardier vehicles.

“The worst congestion on the TTC is downtown,” Perks said, “and if we lose the streetcar system, the whole transit system becomes untenable.”

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