Florida's other Hispanic vote

7/2/12 5:30 AM EDT

Around this time last year, President Obama traveled to Puerto Rico in the first “official” visit by an American president in five decades.

The political calculus of that trip did not go unnoticed last June — it seemed an obvious nod to the rising importance of the Puerto Rican vote, particularly in Florida.

Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times has a fascinating look at the Puerto Rican population of Florida’s Osceola County that explains just how important the Puerto Rican vote figures to be in November.

Today, 46 percent of Osceola's roughly 300,000 residents are Hispanic, overwhelmingly Puerto Rican, and by 2020 nearly 200,000 Osceola residents will be Hispanic, according to census projections. This is ground zero for the changing demographics in America and a big reason why the long-celebrated swing voter battleground swath of Florida known as the I-4 Corridor is starting to turn into a Democratic stronghold.

Florida is America's biggest battleground state, a state that Republicans must win to have any shot at winning the White House. How Osceola votes in November won't necessarily decide whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wins Florida's 29 electoral votes. Given the demographic shifts, few political observers view this as Romney country.

Campaigns ultimately come down to simple addition, however, and Osceola is on the leading edge of the population changes in the Orlando metro area, which is on the way to becoming the dominant population center of the state.

The Hispanic vote is often mistakenly viewed as a monolithic bloc, so Smith’s reporting is a useful corrective. While Mexican-Americans are the most sizable Latino constituency in the West, in Florida the fast-growing Puerto Rican population and Cuban-Americans are the largest groups. And within those two groups, there are significant political differences: Puerto Ricans vote heavily Democratic while Florida’s Cuban-American vote is historically Republican.