Sep 12, 2011

DAY 104

Tropical Storm Maria has been separated once again from her center to her convection. The little swirl in the center of this image is Maria's surface low. It is completely exposed due to upper level wind sheer removing all the convection to the west. This is no condition for intensification, and if that surface low gets too far away, that could destroy Maria all together.

(Tropical Storm Maria)

Most of the computer models are sticking with Maria and forecasting her to hold together long enough to reach hurricane strength after turning north. The organization is still there, despite being severely tilted. And she is still producing large periodic bursts of convection. These are signs that she may stick these rough conditions out. However, the National Hurricane Center is still not forecasting Maria to reach hurricane strength. In their wind speed probability table, they are only giving Maria a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by Friday.

There are indications that the tropics are about to be reactivated. In particular, theCaribbean. All the global forecast models that predict long range sea level pressure tendencies, are forecasting a very strong and large high pressure system over the northeast US. The Navy's NOGAPS model is the model I've posted below, but the GFS and the Canadian look the same. That large scale subsidence in the north, promotes rising air in the south. This is quite frankly what preseason forecasts thought more of the season would look like. With rising air in the Caribbean again, sea level pressures will be on the rise. If a tropical wave, or a monsoon disturbance should form in a situation like this, we could see rapid intensification of a cyclone. You can see a closed circulation on this model run at 144 hours.