The next 5 elections to watch

The GOP nomination is all but settled. The 2012 presidential primary season is nearly at an end.

But in the next month alone, there are still five contests of note, all of which are worth watching for clues about the 2012 election environment.

Arkansas Democratic presidential primary (May 22)

Forget about the GOP presidential primary. The presidential contest to watch here is on the Democratic side, where President Barack Obama faces little-known challenger John Wolfe.

Wolfe, who’s been on the ballot in a handful of states this year, isn’t much of a threat to the president. But coming on the heels of Obama’s West Virginia performance — where a convicted felon won 41 percent against him on May 8 — this contest has a similarly high potential embarrassment factor.

Arkansas, once the home state to the Clintons, was Obama’s single worst in the 2008 primaries: Hillary Clinton beat him 70 percent to 27 percent. In November, he was shellacked again by John McCain, losing by 20 percentage points.

In the states where Obama has been on the primary ballot this year, he’s typically won with close to 90 percent of the Democratic vote. But in this region of the country, his numbers have been notably lower. He won just 57 percent of the vote in Oklahoma, where he lost 15 counties. In Louisiana, Obama won 77 percent but lost enough of the vote in several congressional districts to Wolfe that Wolfe qualified for three delegates.

In both Oklahoma and Louisiana, there were multiple obscure candidates to choose from, splintering the protest vote. In Arkansas, there’s just one. That’s a similar setup to West Virginia, which also only had one other candidate on the ballot with Obama — all of which gives Wolfe a chance at being the next Keith Judd.

Texas GOP Senate primary (May 29)

The next big Senate primary takes place in Texas, where Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is out today with a television ad featuring Rick Perry delivering his endorsement. But this contest isn’t just a measure of Perry’s post-presidential race clout.

It’s the third major GOP Senate primary this cycle with undeniable tea party vs. establishment overtones. In a crowded field that also features former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former football star Craig James, Ted Cruz has surged into contention against the cash-flush lieutenant governor.

Cruz, who’s backed by conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint, has emerged as a figure akin to Marco Rubio in 2010. He’s even been called the “next great conservative hope” by National Review.

Between this race, the recent Nebraska and Indiana Senate primaries and the upcoming Utah Senate primary, grass-roots conservatives have a chance to build on their 2010 gains and dramatically alter the ideological complexion of the Senate Republican Conference in a relatively short period of time. Cruz’s rapid ascent suggest they are well aware of that.

Wisconsin recall (June 5)

The recall of Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker is an important test of labor’s clout, but it will also provide insights into the contours of an important 2012 swing state.

If Walker prevails over Democrat Tom Barrett, the loss will be a demoralizing one for Democrats and further evidence of GOP gains in a state Barack Obama won easily in 2008. Already, conservatives are gloating over recent polling that indicates Walker holds an advantage going into the final two weeks.

But if Walker is ousted, the outcome will send a powerful signal about the political costs of taking on public employee unions. Not only will it provide an adrenaline boost to the left, it will serve as a reminder that Wisconsin is still a state that hasn’t voted Republican at the presidential level since 1984.

Arizona 8th District special election (June 12)

House special elections don’t always offer useful lessons. This one, held in a competitive House district in a possibly competitive state, might.

In the race to succeed former Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in southern Arizona, both candidates are employing national themes that will see widespread play in the fall. Republicans are pounding Ron Barber, a former Giffords aide, with ads about Nancy Pelosi and President Barack Obama’s health care reform law. Democrats are using House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget plan to hammer Republican Jesse Kelly.

Utah GOP Senate primary (June 26)

Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell just short of winning the Republican nomination outright in Utah’s April state GOP convention, is thought to have the edge against former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist in the June 26 primary.

Among other advantages, Hatch will share the ballot with Mitt Romney, who is exceptionally popular in Utah and has endorsed his reelection bid.

But the same anti-establishment forces coursing through the GOP bloodstream elsewhere are present in Utah. Hatch doesn’t face the same dire predicament as Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, who lost a May 8 primary, but GOP Senate primaries over the last two election cycles have proved that no veteran Republican senator should sleep soundly as long as there are a few wrong votes on their ledger.