Inquirer political writers

Thomas Fitzgerald reports:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a 51 to 44 percent lead among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

“Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the university's Polling Institiute.

“Sen. Obama got off message after his ‘bitter’ remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina," Richards said. "She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads – and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most.”

The poll was conducted April 18-20, surveying 1,027 likely Democratic voters. Results are subjec to an error margin of plus or minus 3 percent.