THE Tories will start the Eastleigh by-election campaign with a three-point lead over the Liberal Democrats, according to polling for former Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft.

Lord Ashcroft said the Tories cannot expect to gain a boost in the by-election

The survey – conducted after the resignation of disgraced former MP Chris Huhne – put the Conservatives on 34 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, Labour on 19 per cent and Ukip fourth with 13 per cent.

But Lord Ashcroft warned the Tories cannot expect to gain much of a boost in the February 28 by-election from the circumstances of Huhne’s fall from grace, as the poll suggested that few voters were likely to “switch out of disgust”.

The figures represent a fall of almost 16 points in Lib Dem support since the 2010 General Election, when Huhne scooped 46.5 per cent of the vote. Tories are down five points since the election and Labour and Ukip both up nine.