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Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Starcraft 2 in 2018

The 2018 season of Starcraft 2 is upon us.Qualifiers for WESG, WCS, and IEM Pyeongyang
are ongoing, January tournament start dates are just around the corner, and the
first season of GSL has just begun.Thus,
it’s a good time to look ahead, see what the landscape looks like, ask some
question about how the year will play out, and perhaps, just perhaps make a
prediction or two.

The biggest change influencing the coming year will be the
major patch that occurred at the end of 2017.Where LotV evolved Starcraft 2
into an entirely new scene, the latest balance update, less so.It changes (not evolves) the game, and would
seem to bring back into the picture certain aspects of HotS.Without pylon charging
and the Mothership Core, Protoss is back to base defense, and potentially less
aggressive on the map early-game.Zerg
underwent relatively minimal changes (buffs if anything), but for certain Infestors
will be used in greater force, something we saw a lot more of in HotS. Terran has changes to the Liberator, Raven,
Cyclone, etc.—what on the surface seem nerfs, but time will tell.This is all not to mention that mineral
patches and gas geysers now provide more resources, meaning the amount of
turtling should increase ever so slightly.Overall the game remains quite
similar, but there are changes.Thus, the question is, which players do these
changes best suit?And, who is most
likely to adapt well and be successful in 2018?

After a mediocre 2016, Innovation
dominated 2017.And there is no reason
to think he cannot continue in 2018.Except, if history has proven anything, it’s that it’s extremely
difficult to maintain that high level of play for years.And given the level of competition around
him, the fresh desire from those who did not have a good 2017 to do better, not
to mention the rough time Terrans seem to be having early in the new patch, it’s
uncertain.With The Machine it’s
possible, but we’ll have to wait and see.Looking at the other Terrans, Special
had a breakout 2017, but the question remains: is his new id enough to overcome
any remaining deficiencies to finally achieve a trophy?In terms of the other Terrans who might be
competitive, my eyes are on Maru.2017 was not his year, indicating he, of all
players, really misses Proleague.But
maybe he can bounce back and achieve the tip-top form he once had?Of the other Terrans, he, and perhaps TY, are those seeming most poised to do
well.Otherwise, we may be looking at
him as a HotS wunderchild, and that’s
it.As much as I like him, Byun’s days as being a legitimate threat
to the throne seem over.Unless he can
rekindle the drive he possessed in 2016 and adapt to the new patch, he will
remain mid-tier in Korea as he was in 2017.Another player I think we may have seen the peak from is Gumiho, but maybe he can prove me wrong?For sure he will win games and go far in
tournaments, but can he win SSL or another GSL?TY remains the biggest
mystery among Terrans.The other
contender for breakout player in 2017, he has really struggled in the early
going of the new patch, and things are looking really uncertain for 2018.(His “whining” on Onpoong is great, if you
haven’t seen it.)Will TY slip back into the mid-tier of Korean
progamers he previously occupied prior to LotV?Have to wait and see.

Turning to Protoss, 2017 was Stats’ best ever year, and given his relaxed manner, it’s possible
he can continue the success in 2018.Winning more GSLs and SSLs in the same year is a high bar, however.herO, Zest,
Classic, and sOs all hadgreat success in HotS yet were not up to the same standard in 2017, and therefore
look best poised to give Stats a serious
run for his money as best Protoss on Earth in 2018.I fully expect two of those four to take a premier
tournament trophy home at some point this year.I trust that Billowy, Trap, Creator, Trust and other
such Korean Protosses to continue as they have—mid-tier programers in Korea,
not legitimate contenders for titles.Neeb is the biggest mystery to me in
terms of what to expect looking forward.In a very short time he has proven his ability to adapt well, even if
his success in Korea and at global events hasn’t been stellar since his KESPA
Cup victory in 2016.I don’t think he
will win three out of the four premiere WCS events again, but whether he can achieve
major victories like a GSL or Blizzcon title remain legitimate, open questions.Another question mark is ShowTime.Can he bounce
back, or is his highly successful 2016 just a blip on the radar?And there is still yet one more Protoss
mystery: PartinG.Previously one of the best players on Earth,
can he return to form?Does the drive to
win premier tournaments still exist in him?We will see.I love him, but my
gut instinct tells me he canot be as competitive. At least he will bring some personality--something the Korean scene needs.

Zerg is enjoying huge success in the early going of the
latest patch, which would seem to pave the way for 2017’s successes like Rogue, Dark, Soo, Snute, Elazer, and Serral to
remain successes.But as history has
shown, the early days of a new patch are not always indicative of how things
pan out once the secrets and tricks are fully exploited in the course of the year,
so we wait and see.And what of the
Zergs sitting just outside that group, players like Scarlett, ByuL, Nerchio, True, etc., can they return to form?Caught somewhere in the middle is Solar.Seemingly always a threat in 2017 yet rarely capitalizing in a major
way, can he return to title contender form and be a consistent threat like he
was in 2016?Or is his character makeup
too inconsistent?By far the Korean
progamer with the best English, it’s a joy to hear him speak and represent the
other Korean progamers at events like Homestory Cup.

In terms of tournaments, the circuit has been announced, and
there are no real surprises.For all
practical purposes, it is essentially the same as 2017, which, if there is to
be a region lock system, is pretty good.I dislike the WCS system using weekend tournaments to determine the
equivalent of a GSL winner, including auto-seed to Blizzcon.My primary concern is that WCS players don’t
have good preparation time for their next opponent.If the GSL has proven anything, it’s that
great games are the result of good preparation.Knowing a few hours in advance is often not enough to develop complex
strategies, and therefore more unique games.But it is what it is, and many of the matches are exciting, particularly
in the quarter and semi-finals.In
Korea, I imagine JinAir will be back for another year of SSL, which is
good.I prefer the GSL format, but at
least I can say SSL breaks the mold, and does add an interesting dynamic to
each week’s play, not to mention gives players one more key trophy to seek.

While it promises to be an interesting year, some regrets I
have are that fresh blood is basically coming only from the WCS region, not Korea.
For each Korean tournament it’s the same
old names we’ve been seeing for years, not one new face among them.Looking at the GSL qualifying brackets there
are many new ids, but none seem able to crack the pantheon of established names,
and the mid-tier players remain just good enough to retain their hold on
qualifying spots (yet not good enough to reach quarterfinals or semi-finals).In NA, Europe, and elsewhere, however, we see
new successes popping in and out.It’s a
shame most are Zerg—not that I hate Zerg (I could care less about race wars),
but for the e-sport to be most interesting, there needs to be a dynamic that we
do not often see of late, Europe in particular.Essentially uThermal, Special, and Neeb are the only non-Zerg progamers who currently have a shot at a
premier title.If it wasn’t for Neeb, in fact, I believe most of 2017’s
WCS finals would have been ZvZ.It’s an
interesting matchup, but not desirable long term for fans or the e-sport.Given how dynamic the player base is in
Europe and NA, however, I’m hoping new faces will emerge in 2018 from the other
races.But who?That is a big question…

Anyway, here are some random (more fun, less daring) predictions for 2018:

Soo returns to the GSL finals in season 3

Innovation wins a premiere title (if it’s GSL, we have to declare
him GOAT)

sOs returns to prime form and eventually takes Blizzcon

We see at least three big-name player
retirements from Korea

JinAir sponsors the final SSL year
of all time

Serral finally wins his first premiere WCS event (likely the first
of the year)