Low emissions scenario

Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.2ºC.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.4ºC to 2.5ºC.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 3.4ºC.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.7ºC.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -5% to 6%.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 16%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -3% to 16%.

Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -21% and is very unlikely to be more than 11%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -22% to 15%.