London's key election battlegrounds: the 12 marginal seats that could swing it

Wednesday 5 May 2010 11:33 BST

The Evening Standard's guide to tactical voting in the key constituencies that the main parties must win tomorrow to take a grip on power...

BARKINGLabour majority: 12,183
Labour since 1945. Mostly white working class, with only 20 per cent ethnic minority voters. Four out of 10 residents live in council housing. Regeneration hopes pinned on Crossrail and Thames Gateway projects.
Analysis: Highly symbolic battle between minister for tourism Margaret Hodge and BNP leader Nick Griffin. The BNP may have picked the wrong seat here, compared with the more winnable Dagenham. Boundary changes strengthened Hodge, but BNP did well in the 2006 local elections. David Cameron hopes Tory Simon Marcus can kill off BNP challenge even if Labour vote collapses.
To kick out Brown: Vote Tory
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: N/a

BRENT CENTRALLabour majority: 7,649
Although the magnificent new Wembley stadium and Hindu temple in Neasden dominate the skyline, the area is made up of huge social housing estates. Harlesden and Stonebridge have some of the worst deprivation in London.
Analysis: Dogfight between two neighbouring MPs pitched against each other by boundary changes. Labour minister Dawn Butler and rival Sarah Teather, the Lib-Dem business spokeswoman who won Brent East in a famous by-election, claim the other milked her expenses. Classic Lib-Dem surge territory and real test for Labour.
To kick out Brown: Vote Lib-Dem
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: Vote Labour

BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTHLabour majority: 3,633
Archetypal London seat made up of rich and poor areas, from comfortable Chiswick to poorer Brentford and Heston. Jobs boosted by GlaxoSmithKline HQ and ribbon of development along the M4.
Analysis: Dubbed "Mrs Expenses" after the disclosure of second home claims, health minister Ann Keen, is facing the fight of her life. Boundary changes have reduced her majority. A Tory seat before 1997, Tory hopeful Mary MacLeod, a former policy adviser at Buckingham Palace, campaigning hard. But Lib-Dem Andrew Dakers is not far behind and could provoke an upset. A real three-way fight.
To kick out Brown: Vote Tory/Lib-Dem
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: Vote Labour

CROYDON CENTRALLabour majority: 328Most of seat is white, lower middle class and suburban. Huge council estate of New Addington in south, north more ethnically mixed. United Kingdom Border Agency HQ is big employer, though council hopes to build new theatre, shops and offices in regeneration.Analysis: Usually one of those straight Labour-Tory battles that seems almost 1950s in its lack of Liberal history. Although nominally a Labour seat due to boundary changes, Tory Gavin Barwell, an aide to Lord Ashcroft, expected to do well. But Labour's Gerry Ryan could pull off a surprise if there is resentment at previous Tory MP Andrew Pelling who was forced to become an independent after leaving his wife for his office assistant. Mystery ingredient is whether the Clegg surge will kill Labour's hopes or restrict Tories in equal measureTo kick out Brown: Vote ToryTo stop Cameron: Vote LabourTo stop Clegg: N/a

DAGENHAM & RAINHAMLabour majority: 6,372With the enormous Ford car factory the main employer, historically a white working class heartland for Labour. But boundary changes have chopped off deprived wards in the west and added leafy Tory wards from Havering.Analysis: Previously an unheard-of target for the Tories, their candidate Simon Jones could pull off a shock win if Labour's core vote collapses or shifts in big numbers to the BNP. Sitting MP and Left-winger Jon Cruddas is battling hard to convince voters he recognises fears over housing and jobs. If he loses, he could become Labour's 2012 mayoral candidate. If he wins, he could end up deputy Labour leader. To kick out Brown: Vote ToryTo stop Cameron: Vote LabourTo stop Clegg: N/A

HAMMERSMITHLabour majority: 3,673
Brand new constituency encompasses Westfield and BBC developments in Shepherd's Bush with big companies in Hammersmith. Cheek-by-jowl poverty and affluence as big housing estates mingle with Victorian housing favoured by middle classes keen on swift transport links to central
London.
Analysis: Target seat number 78 for the Tories, it could be one to watch for Tories becoming the biggest party in Parliament. Self-styled "street" campaigner Shaun Bailey is hoping to depose former MP Andy Slaughter. Bitterly fought contest has focused on housing. Tory council, which has low council tax but controversial plans for council homes, looms over the race. Lib-Dems distant third but could upset this knife-edge battle.
To kick out Brown: Vote Tory
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: N/A

HAMPSTEAD AND KILBURNLabour majority: 474
The spiritual home of Labour's chattering classes, long before Islington was a glint in Blair's eye. But boundary changes mean Highgate and Primrose Hill have been stripped out and replaced by grittier Brondesbury, Queen's Park and Kilburn.
Analysis: Former minister Glenda Jackson is in real danger from the Lib-Dems and Tories, who jointly run Camden council in a former Labour heartland. Lib-Dem Ed Fordham could benefit from Clegg surge if enough Tories realise he's in second place. Yet Jackson has always benefited from three-way nature of seat splitting her opponents. Anti-airport campaigner Tamsin Omond could turn it into a four-way split.
To kick out Brown: Vote Lib-Dem
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: Vote Tory or Labour

ISLINGTON SOUTH AND FINSBURYLabour majority: 484 Stretching from Farringdon's lofts to Islington's new Labour heartland in Barnsbury, it has large areas of council housing and unemployment near Angel.Analysis: Barrister Emily Thornberry is up against it defending what was a safe seat under Cabinet minister Chris Smith. Local Lib-Dem council has chipped away at Labour over the years and Tories now marginalised. Lib-Dem candidate Bridget Fox often on Twitter announcing her latest bout of campaigning. Looks like a repeat of neighbouring Hornsey and Wood Green, which fell to Lib-Dems in 2005.To kick out Brown: Vote Lib-DemTo stop Cameron: Vote LabourTo stop Clegg: Vote Tory or Labour

POPLAR AND LIMEHOUSELabour majority: 3,823
Formerly twinned with Canning Town, it has now been shrunk so that Shadwell, Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs form its main areas. Concentrations of affluent riverside homes yards from traditional council housing. Clement Attlee cut his teeth in Limehouse.
Analysis: The big question is whether Respect's George Galloway can have as dramatic an impact as he did in neighbouring Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005. With a high Bangladeshi population, he could cause minister Jim Fitzpatrick big problems by splitting Labour's vote and allowing Tory Tim Archer a chance to run through the middle. The Lib-Dems are not in contention. Gordon Brown and David Cameron have campaigned here.
To kick out Brown: Vote Tory or Respect
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: N/A

RICHMOND PARK AND NORTH KINGSTONLib-Dem majority: 3,613Although famed for wealthy Richmond Hill and its green, professional families living in Barnes and suburban north Kingston have over the years turned this into a Lib-Dem heartland.Analysis: One of the classic contests of the night, with its high-profile largely stemming from Tory environmentalist Zac Goldsmith's celebrity status. Armed with local roots, green zeal and an expensive Lib-Dem council, Goldsmith seemed to be cruising to victory. But revelations about the millionaire Tory's non-dom tax status — plus the Clegg surge— could help incumbent Susan Kramer hold on to the struggling middle class families who determine the outcome. Kramer's defence of Kingston Hospital's maternity unit could also swing things her way.To kick out Brown: Vote ToryTo stop Cameron: Vote Lib-DemTo stop Clegg: Vote Tory

WESTMINSTER NORTHLabour majority: 2,120
A hugely varied seat, from the Bengali families in Harrow Road to the more affluent St John's Wood. Boundary changes have meant that Tory wards were added.
Analysis: One of those key seats Cameron needs to form a majority government in the Commons tomorrow. But the battle between Tory barrister Joanne Cash and Labour incumbent Karen Buck seems to be zig-zagging all the way to the finishing line. Pregnant Cash was damaged by her decision to quit — and then reinstall herself — as candidate after a feud with her local Tory chairwoman. But she has wisely spent time cultivating more deprived parts of the seat and the Conservatives believe she will benefit from being a clear symbol of Cameron's modern Tory party.
To kick out Brown: Vote Tory
To stop Cameron: Vote Labour
To stop Clegg: Vote Tory or Labour

TOOTINGLabour majority: 5,169Although it takes in leafy Wandsworth Common, poorer Earlsfield and Tooting areas have meant it has stayed Labour since the Seventies. Made up of Thirties semis and big council estates with high ethnic-minority populations.Analysis: This could provide London's "Portillo moment", as victory would mean the Tories are close to an overall majority and transport minister Sadiq Khan would lose his seat in the process. Mark Clarke, a former chairman of Conservative Future could benefit from the increasing colonisation of the area by middle class professionals priced out of central London. Traditionally, the Lib-Dems are nowhere near but again the Clegg effect could upset calculations, particularly among younger affluent voters.To kick out Brown: Vote ToryTo stop Cameron: Vote LabourTo stop Clegg: Vote Tory or Labour