Diaries

One of the ideas being tossed around in the wake of the disappointing loss to Wisconsin is that Michigan lacks mental toughness. The idea states that, moreso than other teams, when the going gets rough Michigan folds under the pressure.

I wondered how one might quantify such a behavior and see if there is data to support or deny this idea. The thing I decided to consider was this: How does a team perform in the second half of a game when it finds itself losing at halftime?

Now, you can argue that this does not really address mental toughness. You could argue it's more about teams that start poorly, or about coaches' abilities to make halftime adjustments. But I think it's a good way to at least start looking at this notion.

TEAMS

I decided to look at the time period that Jim Harbaugh has been Michigan's coach - the past two seasons plus all the games so far this season. I looked at the four teams who have seriously contended for the B1G East title during that time - Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State.

DEFINITIONS

I have grouped a team's second-half performance in a game they were losing at halftime into four categories, from best to worst:

Rally: The losing team comes back and wins the game.

Failed Rally: The losing team ties or wins the second half, but it is not enough to win the game.

Steady Decline: The losing team continues to fall behind at more or less the same rate it did in the first half.

Collapse: The losing team has a worse performance in the second half than it did in the first half.

RESULTS

MICHIGAN

Year

Opponent

Halftime Score

Result

Category

Notes

2015

Utah

Losing 10-3

24-17 Loss

Failed Rally

Harbaugh's first game

Minnesota

Losing 16-14

29-26 Win

Rally

4th quarter goal line stand

Ohio State

Losing 14-10

42-13 Loss

Collapse

Rudock shoulder ow

2016

Indiana

Losing 7-3

20-10 Win

Rally

O'Korn's 2016 start

Florida State

Losing 20-6

33-32 Loss

Failed Rally

Peppers injured pre-game, Butt later

2017

Florida

Losing 17-13

33-17 Win

Rally

SHARKBAIT OOH HA HA

Purdue

Losing 10-7

28-10 Win

Rally

Speight injured, O'Korn in.

Michigan State

Losing 14-3

14-10 Loss

Failed Rally

rained a bit

Penn State

Losing 21-13

42-13 Loss

Collapse

wait wasn't this just a nightmare I had

Rally

4 out of 9

44.4%

Failed Rally

3 out of 9

33.3%

Steady Decline

0 out of 9

0%

Collapse

2 out of 9

22.2%

As you can see, 7 times out of 9 whan a Harbaugh team has found itself down at halftime, it comes out with an improved performance in the second half. It's not always enough to get the win, but 78% of the time it's an improvement at least. The Ohio State game where Rudock seperated his shoulder and this year's Penn State debacle are the only two exceptions to this list. If you're looking for Wisconsin, remember it was tied at halftime, so the game is not considered using this methodology. This might be an inherent flaw worth discussing.

Penn State

Year

Opponent

Halftime Score

Result

Category

Notes

2015

Ohio State

Losing 21-3

Loss 38-10

Steady Decline

Northwestern

Losing 20-7

Loss 23-21

Failed Rally

Michigan

Losing 14-10

Loss 28-16

Steady Decline

Michigan State

Losing 20-10

Loss 55-16

Collapse

Georgia

Losing 17-3

Loss 24-17

Failed Rally

2016

Pittsburgh

Losing 28-14

Loss 42-39

Failed Rally

Michigan

Losing 28-0

Loss 49-10

Steady Decline

Sad Field Goal

Minnesota

Losing 13-3

Win 29-26

Rally

Ohio State

Losing 12-7

Win 24-21

Rally

Michigan State

Losing 12-10

Win 45-12

Rally

Wisconsin

Losing 28-14

Win 38-31

Rally

B1G Championship game

USC

Losing 27-21

Loss 52-49

Failed Rally

Rose Bowl

2017

Iowa

Losing 7-5

Win 21-19

Rally

Rally

5 out of 13

38.5%

Failed Rally

4 out of 13

30.8%

Steady Decline

3 out of 13

23.1%

Collapse

1 out of 13

7.7%

Penn State's stats are very similar to Michigan's, with a somewhat higher number of samples. Penn State has rallied 69% of the time, but like Michigan the rally comes up just short almost as often as it succeeds. Penn State's history is notable in that they were terrible at rallying up to and including our 49-10 pasting of them last year. They went on a tear immediately afterwards, successfully overcoming their next four halftime deficits including the B1G championship. I think many of us are still struggling to see Penn State as a championship caliber team, instead of as a team we treated like a MAC opponent.

All right, everyone ready to feel crappy? Let's dive in.

Ohio State

Year

Opponent

Halftime Score

Result

Category

Notes

2015

Virginia Tech

Losing 17-14

Win 42-24

Rally

Indiana

Losing 10-6

Win 34-27

Rally

2016

Wisconsin

Losing 16-6

Win 30-23 OT

Rally

Michigan

Losing 10-7

Win 30-27 (2OT)

Rally

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Clemson

Losing 17-0

Loss 31-0

Steady Decline

CFP semifinal

2017

Indiana

Losing 14-13

Win 49-21

Rally

Penn State

Losing 28-17

Win 39-38

Rally

Iowa

Losing 31-17

Loss 55-24

Collapse

Rally

6 out of 8

75%

Failed Rally

0 out of 8

0%

Steady Decline

1 out of 8

12.5%

Collapse

1 out of 8

12.5%

Ohio State's record here is more similar to Michigan's than you might have suspected. They've been down at halftime only one fewer time in the past 2.9 seasons than we have. Like us, this is a mixture of tough battles against good teams and inexplicable first-half farts against the dregs of the conference. Like us, the Buckeyes are very likely to rally in the second half. The one major difference is that Ohio State successfully closed out all six of its rallies. "Coming up just short" is not something Ohio State has experienced lately when facing a halftime deficit. If you're part of the "this coin always comes up tails" crowd, here's the data for you.

Also, that Iowa game, man.

Michigan State

Year

Opponent

Halftime Score

Result

Category

Notes

2015

Michigan

Losing 10-7

Win 27-24

Rally

UUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

Iowa

Losing 6-3

Win 16-13

Rally

Alabama

Losing 10-0

Loss 38-0

Collapse

CFP semifinal

2016

Wisconsin

Losing 13-6

Loss 30-6

Collapse

Northwestern

Losing 19-17

Loss 54-40

Collapse

Michigan

Losing 27-10

Loss 32-23

Failed Rally

Defeated with Dignity

Illinois

Losing 7-6

Loss 31-27

Steady Decline

2017

Notre Dame

Losing 28-7

Loss 38-18

Failed Rally

Ohio State

Losing 35-3

Loss 48-3

Steady Decline

Rally

2 out of 9

22.2%

Failed Rally

2 out of 9

22.2%

Steady Decline

2 out of 9

22.2%

Collapse

3 out of 9

33.3%

I've seen it written that Michigan State possesses a toughness and intensity that Michigan lacks. Maybe... but it's not in the data here. Michigan State is the first and only team on this list more likely to get worse in the second half of a game it was losing at halftime. It is the only team that has collasped three times, starting with the hamblasting by Alabama in the playoff game. It's also a bit beyond the scope of this study, but it's interesting to note that the Spartans were tied or leading at halftime during 5 of last season's 9 losses.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this data, Michigan does not appear to have a tendency to wilt in the face of adversity. That only team studied that has that tendency is Michigan State. Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State will all come out strong after a halftime deficiit 70-80% of the time. The thing that sets Ohio State apart from everyone else is that once they start to rally, they always seem to finish the job. For everyone else, it's a lot closer to a coin flip.

I’ve seen quite a few fellow Michigan alums praising Madison, WI as a soft-landing home away from home experience for those appreciative of Ann Arbor’s best qualities. What I didn’t see was any disclaimers that these witnesses were taking the position of the unreliable narrator.

Madison and the vaudeville troupe of tin-can kicking Badgers comprise the cultural and metaphysical shit-pile that is Wisconsin football.

Despite the dreadful cash-only toll stops en route to Madison, that were largely reminiscent of abandoned lot parking fee collectors in Detroit, I was still enthusiastic and hopeful for our Wolverines to pull an upset. This wishful thinking slowly creeped into the scope of possibility even without the redacted DPJ touchdown that would’ve furthered Wisconsin’s inability to gain any momentum to swing the game their way.

I should’ve known better…

Wisconsin’s mediocrity somehow leads to successfully making Michigan men feel like shit no matter the circumstances. Like, when I was walking up the ramp to my seat in the lower corner of the stadium and the squawking of Badgers lassoed the words “red rum” into my game-focused mind. I heard the enemy group say “red rum” and mentally self-corrected upon reading “red ramp” spray-paint stenciled words hovering over my head. I forced a laugh, because what Stanley Kubrick fan wouldn’t appreciate such a self-induced confabulation?

I was immediately chastised by the boisterous fans, who’d presumed me to be clueless, in saying “Oh, I’m a Michigan guy, I’m just gonna laugh even though I don’t get the joke”.

In retrospect, perhaps he was just demonstrating his newly acquired ability to read—something Hornibrook has yet to accomplish from the pocket.

My two friends and I agreed that no matter what, win or lose, being tied 7-7 early in the game with both offenses struggling was satisfactory evidence to substantiate the claims that Wisconsin is overrated. The Big 10 West is a great season-long tune-up game for the undefeated Badgers. Little did I know that a very disappointing development would soon arise… the unnecessary murder of Brandon Peters—the last chance to keep Ohio State from entering the Big 10 championship game with only two losses and curb-stomping the Badgers.

Had BP stayed in, Wisconsin’s chances at losing would’ve remained all but imminent, and Wisconsin could’ve proved they didn’t need to transform Michigan into another tin-can opponent in order to keep their only recent lossless season intact.

The Badgers proved the opposite, celebrating an accomplishment they didn’t earn, much like their red-bundled fans droning “FIRST AND TEN, WISCONSIN”, as if they didn’t know a possession gives you a first down for free. That level of false confidence is dangerous, and can lead to things like needing at least two people to verbally spell “OHIO”.

Speaking of Ohio, I never thought I would say that Columbus is a cooler city than Madison, despite being the “city that tries”. Ann Arbor doesn’t need a billboard to advertise its greatness, and Madison doesn’t need a block-long 9am breakfast line to know that good breakfast spots are in short supply. I was hungry the following morning, and I had to reduce myself to eating in a Packers bar. I won’t get into why the Packers are trash and I’m not upset that Aaron Rodgers is out.

Back to the reason I was hungry… I had to eat shitty pizza in my AirBNB the night before. My pals and I picked up the pizza at “Toppers”—a local conglomeration of terrible slogans, surprisingly not-stoner pie-makers, and a woman who invaded my personal space to point to “something on my shirt”, nearly knocking my hat off before I realized I’d been the victim of a prank I hadn’t seen attempted since before I knew what boobs looked like in person. Maybe she was just being flirty, but her approach was quite outdated. It was like Wisconsin running on third and eight—nobody does that anymore, for any reason, even if you’re desperate. Oh and by the way, Toppers Pizza's slogan is "we come fast, no apologies"... maybe that's a ubiquitous phrase in Madison that she was getting tired of hearing.

Fast forward to a last-minute stop in a depressing Wal-Mart to pick up ear plugs in an effort to avoid the late-night endless word-vomit coming from our AirBNB host, and I was growing eager to leave. Perhaps a quick bar visit might improve our mood.

We stopped at our host’s recommended cocktail bar, only to find middle-aged vaguery and obnoxious Badgers. One,in particular, who I’ll simply refer to as the Badgering Badger, decided that a pit stop at our table on his way to refill his 50-year old alcohol-soaked gut might be a fun soiree. After name-dropping that he knew Paul Chryst personally and pointing out that we were Michigan fans, he referred to me as “buddy” and backhanded my shoulder as if I’d respond with anything other than contempt. We quickly declined his offer for free drinks and before getting up to leave, got to hear him wax-retarded about how many famous people he knows and that he has three kids sleeping at home... dynamite triage of priorities there, dude.

We walked home, passing shitty po-mo style apartment buildings, near-dead frozen field mice tricked into attempting to eat a hat, and low-traffic credit unions in locations that don't make sense.

Ahhh, finally, we reached the front door of the AirBNB. I could hit the mattress hard and soon wake up to a quick break-fast followed by a fast break for the Michigan border. While unlacing my climate-mismatched Chuck Taylors, I heard a voice from behind me in a near whisper, “so… (long pause, hair standing on end) what brings you to Madison?” My friend quickly replied “the football game”, followed quickly by “good night”. This may not seem like an out of the ordinary exchange between two AirBNB guests, but what I didn’t tell you is that he looked and sounded like the Child Catcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.

Luckily, our creepy Wisconsin-based housemate didn’t turn out to be The Butcher of Plainfield, and we made a morning escape to our car without being turned into armchairs and nipple belts.

Eventually, Michigan (and a mix of non-all-white non-obese non-ugly people) came back into our view and the horribleness of it all could be put behind us.

Amongst the handwringing and angst following the Wisconsin loss, there seems to be two distinct camps. First is the "Woe is me - fire everyone on offense" group The second is the "What did you expect - everyone thought this before the season" group.

I was kind of in the middle with one foot securely in the "We saw this coming" camp. This got me to thinking, what did we really believe before the season. I checked back on the three biggest prediction links I could find: The Athlon Prediction (LINK), the CFP Prediction (LINK), and the Front Page Preseason Predictions (LINK).

I was surprised, shocked even, to see the level of faith there was in this team. I did not see the warnings that people are now claiming to have had. I put together two charts, the first being individual predictions (I took the liberty of interpreting some comments based on the thread), and the second being people who saw Michigan in the College Football Playoffs. Even Brian saw the season as a 10-2 to 12-0 outcome.

It was kind of fun to read the predictions, although heartbreaking in a way. One theme was how bad Penn State sucked and that our 39 point victory in 2016 would be eclipsed despite playing them in Happy Valley, at night, during a white-out. People universally thought McSorley could not armpunt his way to any kind of winning season and that Barkley was a sham who could be stopped without a succesful passing attack. Another theme was how bad MSU would be this year with DrMantisToboggan predicting them to go winless but with a 6-6 ceiling as a possibility. Of course MeanJoe07 made fart noises, but what else would you expect?

My conclusions? We weren't as rationale as I remembered. I expected to see more 8-4 predictions and they really weren't there. On the bright side, there were a number of Mr. Yost postings where he shared information he was hearing from the Submarine and they turned out to be incredibly accurate. It may pay to listen to this man in the future about position groups and individual players (but not his CFP predictions).

As Dr. Sap has been providing a journey through the 1997 season, and the recap of the OSU game has been recently posted, I wanted to share from a Buckeye perspective of what the ’97 game meant. In the era of Cooper’s tenure, which was filled with a lot of pain as it relates to Michigan, the ’97 game stands out as its own unique kind of pain. Allow me to explain.

In 1987, Earle Bruce was sent off with a win against Michigan. Despite being sweet to beat Michigan, it was bittersweet because it was Earle’s last game and because it had already been determined by the OSU AD that they would not attend a bowl game. While Michigan went on to play a bowl game, OSU was sitting at home.

Cooper came in and his first team was 4-6-1, finishing with a loss to Michigan and again no bowl. OSU proceeded to lose to Michigan in ’89, ’90, & ‘91. It wasn’t OSU’s loss the games from ’88-’90 that was as painful as knowing the fact that Michigan had the superior program. Michigan seemingly kept going to the Rose Bowl and OSU kept being not good enough to beat Michigan. This was a “Why can’t we have nice things?” kind of pain.

Michigan’s program was the class of the conference (they won or shared the conference 5 consecutive seasons), and OSU was not. That was painful to have to admit, and these 4-straight losses culminated with the ’91 blowout to the tune of 31-3 which featured Desmond’s Heisman pose. Cooper & OSU agreed to a contract extension, which was announced the morning of that game, making Buckeye fan furious because of (1) the extension to Cooper who was already 0-3 vs. Michigan, and (2) that the team followed up that announcement with an embarrassing defeat, something not shared by the previous 3 losses. The vitriol was building.

The ’92 game was the rivalry’s last tie. It was good to not lose to Michigan, but Buckeye fan was furious with Cooper for not going for a 2-pt conversion to win; instead he kicked the extra point for the tie with about 5 minutes left to go in the game. To make matters worse, then-university president Gee referred to the tie as “one of our greatest wins ever”. That a tie with Michigan would ever be considered a victory made Buckeye fan furious and hate Cooper even more.

Which takes us to ’93 and the beginning of a different kind of pain. The ’93 OSU team was Cooper’s first team that legitimately looked like a potential Rose Bowl team. To this point, it had been nearly a decade since OSU’s last Rose Bowl appearance (’84). Michigan had been to the Rose Bowl 5 times since OSU had last been there. OSU went into the ’93 game 9-0-1, a season during which we celebrated the 25th anniversary of the 1968 team, OSU’s last Mythical National Championship. 1993 looked like the year we would finally have nice things.

Watching the 28-0 debacle in Ann Arbor made me nauseous. Not only could OSU not beat Michigan when Michigan was the better team, now OSU couldn’t win even when OSU did have the better team (OSU ranked #5, Michigan was unranked). This was painful. And it was a different kind of pain. No win over Michigan. No Rose Bowl. An undefeated season shattered. Cooper was 0-5-1, plus the two years prior to Earle’s sendoff were Harbaugh’s two wins in ’85 & ’86. So OSU had only beaten Michigan once in 9 seasons, and even the one win was bittersweet. Little did I know that the worst pain was yet to come.

Cooper finally beat Michigan in ’94. It felt good to finally win again, but the stakes were not as great. That was the year PSU’s awesome team whooped up on all of us. OSU’s next great team came the following season.

OSU’s ’95 team was Cooper’s best yet. It was Eddie George’s Heisman campaign, which was complimented by Bobby Hoying throwing to Ricky Dudley &, Terry Glenn (RIP), and Orlando Pace’s play made the pancake a football term. The team went into the Michigan game undefeated at 10-0. Surely this would be the year OSU would beat Michigan when it mattered! And then we got Biakabatukaed. I was numb.

The ’96 team was just as good, also 10-0. This time the game was in Columbus. OSU had not lost to Michigan in Columbus since ’90, so this time it was going to be different, right? One Shawn Springs slip on the turf led to seeing only the back of Tai Streets’ jersey as he scored the game’s only touchdown and OSU had its heart ripped out yet again.

The jealousy-based pain of ’88-’91 was replaced and trumped by the pain of excruciating heartbreak suffered 3 times from ’93-’96. The heartbreak pain of ’93-’96 is reminiscent of Sara Gilbert’s character on The Simpsons when she rips Bart’s heart right out of his chest, kicks it against the wall, then it slumps down into the wastebasket: “You won’t be needing this!” Having 3 undefeated seasons dashed by Michigan in 4 years was the worst.

Which brings us to ’97. This time it was Michigan who brought an undefeated record into The Game. Michigan was getting all the hype and Michigan featured the Heisman-hopeful campaign. Yet OSU had only 1 loss on the season and a win over Michigan would not only return the favor by ripping out their heart, but OSU would win the conference themselves with a win.

’97: this would be the year for payback. After all the heartbreak from the previous seasons, this time the heartbreak would be all Michigan’s. Turning the tables was going to be sweet!

OSU could have beaten Michigan, had it not been for Stanley Jackson handing Michigan a pick six and OSU’s inability to adequately cover a punt. OSU’s offense outscored Michigan’s offense 2 touchdowns to 1. (Granted, one OSU touchdown came on a 1-play, 2-yard “drive” after the defense recovered a fumble, which means if we look at what each offense was able to muster against the opposing defense it was basically a 7-7 slobberknocker.) The interception in the end zone didn’t help either.

But even after a 20-0 deficit, OSU had a chance. OSU held Michigan to 45 yards of total offense in the second half as they cut the lead to 20-14. But they couldn’t complete the comeback which would have ripped out the heart of Michigan’s special season and issued the payback that they had coming to them.

But payback didn’t happen. After all the frustrations of having special seasons spoiled by Michigan, it was painful for Michigan to not have their special season spoiled as well.

Of all the pain suffered during the Cooper era, the ’97 game offered its own unique kind of pain. The pain from the ’97 game had an element of the ’88-’91 “Why can’t we have nice things?” pain (because Michigan finished ’97 undefeated and went to the Rose Bowl). The ’97 pain also had an element of the ’93-’96 “You won’t be needing this!” heartbreak pain (because OSU would have gone on to the Rose Bowl, or a major alliance bowl game, for those of you old enough to remember that Bowl Alliance abomination). But the ’97 pain also incorporated its own unique kind of pain: FAILED PAYBACK! The ’97 pain was a convergence of all 3 types of pain.

Cooper went on to lose twice more in his last three seasons. After OSU’s win in 1984, led by Keith Byars en route to the Rose Bowl when I was 12 years old, barely old enough to appreciate what was going on, until Tressel’s first season, when I was 29, I watched OSU beat Michigan only 3 times in 16 years. None of those 3 wins led to a Rose Bowl appearance. The entirety of teens and 20s was spent wallowing in the pain brought upon me by the Michigan game.

There were several different kinds of pain along the way. But the ’97 pain was a pain that was unique from all the rest.