At 72 Percent, Major Quake Odds Continue To Grow For Bay Area

In news that is sure to remind everyone to check their earthquake kit (you have one of those, right?), the Chronicle reports that the odds of a major quake happening in the Bay Area some time during the next 30 years have jumped to a frightening 72 percent. Experts last year predicted the chances of a 6.7 magnitude or higher quake hitting the region at 63 percent — a number that seems almost comforting by comparison.

David Schwartz, a geologist who works with the U.S. Geological Survey, told the paper that info from 32 faults like the Wright Way, Collayami, and Monterey Bay-Tularcitos faults helped researchers come to their most recent conclusion. Apparently multiple small faults can rupture simultaneously leading to larger earthquakes — an unpleasant fact, to say the least.

This sounds much like the idea put forth last year that San Andreas might in fact be a "zipper fault." The idea is that smaller faults, when colliding, merge instead of passing each other by.