Despite last week’s abrupt shuffle at the top of the military leadership, Kim Jŏng-ŭn appears to be firmly established as the new leader of North Korea, completing a faster and smoother power transition than many experts anticipated.

The sinking of a South Korean naval vessel and artillery attack against a South Korean island highlight that stability on the peninsula is threatened by more than the nuclear issue. A resumption of talks to address maritime delimitation and confidence-building measures – within the context of recalibrated deterrence – are needed to avoid further deterioration towards conflict.

Outwardly, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) appears stable. However, the country has been shaken by constricting international sanctions, extremely poor policy choices, and several internal challenges that have the potential to trigger instability.

North Korea: Succession & the Nuclear Program

20 March 2012: When Kim Jong-il died in December 2011, he left the leadership of North Korea to his son, Kim Jong-un. While some observers predicted that the transfer of power would destabilize the regime, the transition has apparently proceeded with no major upsets. Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group's Deputy Project Director for North East Asia, parses the succession and what it means for regional security and the North's nuclear program.