I’d have to believe that the spot is Goleski’s to lose, because as a Rule 5 draft pick, he has to remain on the 25-man roster to stay with the A’s. He may have been injured when he came over, but he’s going to be healthy by the time Spring Training starts, so he can’t spend the season on the DL rehabbing in the minors.

Ricky Ledee‘s “best” season might have been in 2003 with the Phillies. He hit .247/.334/.475 with 13 home runs and a 34:59 BB:SO ratio. That’s not a particularly good season, though. Here’s his projection for 2007, as a 34 year old:

AB

AVG

OBP

SLG

2B

HR

BB

SO

BB:SO

*2B

*HR

CHONE

173

.241

.317

.374

9

4

18

41

.439

18

8

PECOTA

89

.237

.305

.373

5

2

8

20

.400

20

8

ZiPS

162

.241

.311

.377

10

4

15

37

.405

22

9

Not very good. The *2B and *HR numbers have been adjusted to 350 at bats, which is what I’d guess a 5th OF might get this year in Oakland.

Compare that to Goleski’s numbers:

AB

AVG

OBP

SLG

2B

HR

BB

SO

BB:SO

*2B

*HR

CHONE

451

.237

.299

.400

22

16

36

118

.305

17

12

PECOTA

519

.233

.294

.390

25

18

42

135

.311

17

12

ZiPS

424

.224

.291

.389

25

15

37

130

.285

21

12

Who would you rather have? Goleski offers more power, but he strikes out far too often and his OBP is well below average.

Both Ledee and Goleski have offensive drawbacks. The deciding factor, in my opinion, is that while Ledee is a declining 34 year old, Goleski is a 25 year old with no major league experience yet. Goleski has a PECOTA UPSIDE of 5.2, while Ledee’s UPSIDE is just 0.6.

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