Comments

Seems a bit unfair to put Mike Cameron on the NL squad, considering he’s put up his entire negative WAR as a member of the Red Sox. In four games as a Marlin, he’s put up a .708 OPS, which ain’t bad. Obviously that’s a miniscule sample size, but still.

So Pie gets benched for too few PA, I assume? Kind of weird that Morneau starts over Barton because he was worse in fewer PA (makes sense, pro-rates to a worse season), but that Pennington starts over Brignac because he was worse in more PA (makes sense, bigger sample of being worse suggests it’s less fluky, but completely opposite reasoning).

As an O’s fan, I am very angry that we’ve been cheated out of Felix Pie’s well-deserved start. Very angry.

“- It was tough to choose a first baseman for the team, as both Morneau and Barton have been bad this season, but Morneau has managed to put up an equal WAR in less plate appearances, so I gave him the starting nod. And Reid Brignac has technically been worse than Cliff Pennington so far, but Brignac has less than 200 plate appearance, so he gets the bench spot.”

You’re basically saying that Morneau has been terribad in fewer appearances than Barton so he gets a starting spot, but Brignac has been terribad in fewer appearances than Pennington so he gets a bench spot.

I wanted the Starters to be actual starters on their teams (or at least somewhat close), and then I gave the edge to whichever player I thought played worse. So that’s why there’s the PA discrepancy in a couple places. It’s a bit weird, but seemed to make sense in my head.

Seems almost cruel to put people on there that are coming off serious injuries. Morneau and Nathan are 2 good examples. Strictly by the methodology they qualify but I wouldn’t call either of those guys “bad”.

Ian Stewart has the same amount of negative WAR as Chris Johnson in almost one-fifth of the plate appearances. I get he’s had barely any playing time but was the presumed starter and stuff… Not saying he should have been included but he represents a pretty interesting case…

I like David Murphy, but it’s been hard to watch him at times this year. I’m always a bit mystified when he gets the start over Hamilton in left with either Chavez or Gentry in center. People around here do love him, though. He is a fabulously nice guy to fans, especially kids, and has a few memorable hits that seem to stick in people’s minds (opening day pinch hit double against Boston springs to mind).

Most of those players were solid regulars in 2010, with Morneau being otherworldly prior to his concussion. Nathan missed the whole year from TJ recovery, and Neshek was in the minors for most of the year as he was having trouble post-TJ as well.

Matt Capps is wondering why Rauch gets the nod over him? I mean, they have the same WAR, right? After all, we all know he’s a proven closer, and Rauch isn’t. It isn’t Rauch’s fault he has a low WAR as a closer…….

As a Mets fan I think lists like this show the biggest difference between the past and current regimes. Avoiding black holes on your roster goes a long way toward putting a semi competitive team on the field.

So many past M’s — Ibanez, Betancourt, Hall, Franklin, Batista, Cameron, Valdez — when they’ve rotted through the floor of even the good ship Mariner, it’s good to know the NL all-flub team has a place for them.

Of course there’s still Chone Figgins keeping the home fire burning (and so brightly, too); perhaps we’ll see him headlining the NL side of this list next year?

Francisco should get the nod over Rauch. He’s been devastatingly atrocious in the closer’s role for the Jays. He’s accomplished more terribleness in fewer innings than Rauch with his 5.18 BB/9, 27.4% LD, 1.85 WHIP line.

This! I’m a giants fan and was looking for tejada; but his hitting has been better lately (up to .257 wOBA!) and his defense has been good at 3B, almost enough to counter his suckiness at SS. I all adds up to -0.1 WAR, not really a serious threat to betancourt.

How’d they win so many games? They have layed the White Sox 8 times. It is conceivable that the Twins could get 20% of their wins against the White Sox this year. Hell, the only thing keeping them from winning the division is not enough games against the White Sox.

As a White Sox fan not only am I proud of our three Flub Stars, I am extra-special-proud of the 1064 PA the team has given those three this year.

Not sure where you got the idea that Navarro was a “regular catcher”. Not even sure what you mean by that. He backed up Barajas, then got some playing time upon his injury, but lately has lost playing time to AJ Ellis.

So Mike Cameron has been a starter for almost a week now. But he’s an NL all-flub starter on the basis of the negative WAR he accumulated as an AL bench player? He’s really abusing your selection criteria.

Ok, I ran the two teams through my baseball simulator in a home and home series, where I ran a sim with each team as the away/home team. The American League team is slightly better according to my simulator, but not by much. Here are the results.

When the NL team is the home team, they win 51.6% of the time. When the AL team is the home team, they win 57.0% of the time. Total runs for this game is around 9.7 runs on average.

Here is the link to my blog, where I post more details including the average box score and a run distribution chart. Enjoy.
vr, Xeifrank

I think that is a natural effect of the method. WAR is a counting stat so even though some of these guys haven’t played a lot, most are still getting a lot of PA. If they were young and cheap they would be sent down. Most of them are big investments so the clubs have little choice but to let the players try to work themselves out of their bad years. For the White Sox, that’s certainly the case with Dunn and Rios. I can’t explain why Juan Pierre continues to be run out there although he has been less bad the last two or three weeks.

Joe, that makes no sense. If it’s good at predicting future events, that’s because it takes into account what pitchers have control over. This would also make it good for evaluating past performances, otherwise you’re giving credit or penalizing pitchers for things they couldn’t have done differently.

So basically, you need to either argue that it sucks for both or shut up.

Yea. Proctor looks a lot worse than he really is because Braves fans are so used to Jair Jurrjens being a merely average pitcher but somehow putting up amazing numbers, Tommy Hanson being generally awesome, Kimbrel flinging filth, and Venters chucking bowling balls.

I think Proctor also seems worse than he is because Gonzalez uses him (and the pen in general) very poorly.

I agree with both, only I think it’s only a good predictor for SOME pitchers. Lackey just flat out sucks. I don’t care if your FIP is 0.01, if your ERA is like 7.00, and it’s been half a season, you have sucked.