Green Mountain Coffee Shares Popped: What You Need to Know

Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of specialty coffee company Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(Nasdaq: GMCR) perked up as much as 22% Thursday after its quarterly results and guidance topped Wall Street expectations.

So what: Fueled by strong sales of its K-Cup portion packs, Green Mountain's third-quarter revenue more than doubled and earnings almost tripled to $0.37 per share. The stock is hitting all-time highs on the news, so Mr. Market obviously expects the positive earnings momentum to continue, but with the likes of Starbucks(Nasdaq: SBUX), Tim Hortons(NYSE: THI), and recent IPODunkin' Brands(Nasdaq: DNKN) up nicely today, Mr. Market is also taking Green Mountain's big beat as a positive sign for coffee stocks in general.

Now what: Expect the shares to keep rallying in the short term. For the fourth quarter, management now sees sales growth of between 100% and 105%, as well as an earnings range of $0.44 to $0.48 per share, versus the average analyst estimate of $0.43 per share. Green Mountain's lofty price ratios still make me nervous as a long-term investment, but if Keurig is truly, in CEO Lawrence Blankford's words, "changing the way North America brews and enjoys coffee at home and in the workplace," they may very well be justified.