Driving to disaster

The warning is simple - we're driving to disaster. When President Barack Obama demanded that, by the end of this month, higher fuel economy standards for the US car industry are to be in place, he sent a signal to the world that uncomfortable questions of fuel dependency and the environmental impact of our transport choices are not going away. In a time of economic crisis, they are all the more pressing. Forcing the pace on fuel economy, he said, is essential "to help America's automakers prepare for the future".

However, this is not just America's problem. The fact is that the predicted massive growth in the global car fleet – a tripling by 2050 – will not take place in the US. Indeed, more than 80% of this growth will occur in the developing world. A tripling of our CO2 emissions could tip us into global environmental crisis. So, for all of us, whether we seek to export our cars to those countries, or just because we share a planet with them, the question of how to reconcile legitimate aspirations for mobility, global economic recovery, and an ambitious reduction in CO2 emissions from cars, is one we cannot afford to ignore.

Low-carbon, efficient vehicles are a crucial element in this equation. Moving the global car fleet towards better fuel economy in a manner that is already technically achievable could cut close to half of CO2 emissions from cars and save over 6bn barrels of oil per year by 2050. In terms of CO2 alone, we're looking at reductions equivalent to half the current total annual emissions of the entire EU. It would also generate significant local air pollution benefits – and all using existing, cost-effective technologies. This is simply too good to overlook.

So far, the global picture has been neglected but this must change. Four international bodies – the International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum, UN Environment Programme, and FIA Foundation – are working together on a global fuel economy initiative that will launch a "50by50 challenge" at the Geneva motor show this week. The goal is a 50% fuel economy improvement worldwide by 2050 – cutting fuel use per kilometre by half, an objective in line with the recommendations of the intergovernmental panel on climate change and the G8. To reach this target all new vehicles must be twice as efficient by 2030, both as tested and on the road. Achieving the latter will require that we introduce measures such as improved vehicle maintenance, more efficient after-market products and better management of urban mobility.

Governments, the industry and consumers must act. The new agenda involves promoting research and action to improve fuel economy worldwide and keeping the issue at the forefront of policy debate. In practical terms we will be working with governments and industry in developing new policies to encourage fuel economy improvement and supporting regional awareness initiatives that provide consumers with the information they need to make informed choices.

No excuses for inaction are acceptable – a 50% improvement in global fuel economy should be achievable for conventional (gasoline and diesel) vehicles just using existing, cost-effective technologies such as better engines and drive trains, more efficient components such as tyres, and lighter materials. Introduction of more advanced technologies such as electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will further reduce emissions, allowing us to go beyond stabilisation of CO2 emissions. Consumers and oil-importing countries will benefit from substantial fuel savings, especially at the higher oil prices that are likely to return within a few years. CO2 emissions from cars around the world will be cut by 2bn tonnes per year by 2050, perhaps making the transport sector the single biggest contributor to reducing CO2 emissions.

Our goals for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are ambitious but achievable. As countries around the world develop economic stimulus packages in coming months, far-reaching programmes such as "50by50" must be incorporated, with policies that both assist the auto sector, create incentives to move toward more efficient, low CO2 cars and contribute to low-carbon, green, economies.