In the year of the rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson is the one with the best chance to celebrate on Bourbon Street in February.

Wilson’s chances to get to New Orleans are far better than Andrew Luck’s or Robert Griffin III’s. The Colts should make the playoffs, and the Redskins might. But we’ve seen Indianapolis’ defense shredded by Tom Brady, and Washington has given up plenty of big plays.

The Seahawks (8-5) have a ferocious defense, and should be viewed as serious Super Bowl contenders, particularly if they win the NFC West. If Seattle beats Buffalo on Sunday, and San Francisco loses to New England on Sunday night, the 49ers at Seahawks showdown in Week 16 will be for first place.

The Seahawks are bullies at home (6-0) and a threat to take out anybody in the NFC. On the road, Seattle has the running game and defense to win in someone else’s building.

Progressive thinking has been vital to the Seahawks’ success. General manager John Schneider had the foresight to pluck Wilson in the third round, and coach Pete Carroll had the guts to start Wilson over Matt Flynn, who signed for big free agent bucks.

Carroll and Schneider were convinced early that Wilson was special. Now others are catching up.

"I’ve been blown away by Russell Wilson," said Ron Jaworski, ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback. "I take a lot of pride in my prep of college players coming in, and I thought Russell Wilson would be a good, solid backup quarterback for a decade in the NFL. He’s come in and shown incredible poise, a pocket awareness, the strong arm, and the ability to make plays.

"He has made plays when the score has been tied or they’re behind. The majority of his touchdown passes come in critical situations, and I’m a big believer in quarterbacks that manage critical situations."

People were questioning the wisdom of Wilson being a starter in September. In February, Wilson could be answering questions at the Super Bowl.

A rookie quarterback starting in the Super Bowl has never happened, but it doesn’t sound so crazy anymore. Not this season. And if it happens, I believe it will be Wilson.

DON'T BANK ON SABAN TO NFL

If Alabama’s head coach really wants back into the NFL, the door will be wide open after the season. However, a former NFL front office executive who has known Saban for decades, told me he would be shocked if Saban bolted Alabama for the Browns.

The Boston Globe reported Saban has "let it be known" that he if he returns to the NFL, it would likely be with Michael Lombardi of NFL Network as Saban’s general manager. Lombardi has been mentioned as a G.M. candidate in Cleveland.

"If you tell me Nick Saban ends up as the coach of the Browns, I’d probably drive my car off this road that I’m driving on," the former exec told Sporting News. "Now, is there another NFL job that Nick Saban might look at, after this year, or in the future? Sure. People have money, and people are always desperate to bring in a coach they can win with."

However, the former exec believes it’s significant that Saban has spent six seasons at Alabama. He had never spent more than five years anywhere else.

"Maybe he’s bought into the idea of building a legacy," said the former exec. "He’s winning, they’re recruiting well, he’s going to continue to win. What drives coaches out of Alabama is the pressure to constantly win. But that’s a perfect fit for Nick, because he’s a perfectionist. It’s been a match made in heaven. He wouldn’t want it any other way if they weren’t that demanding, because he’s that demanding. So if he stays, I won’t be surprised. In fact, that’s what I expect."

Either way, Saban’s most interesting call after the national championship game will be the call he makes concerning his future.

TWO PLAYERS WHO NEED TO STEP UP

Miles Austin, WR Cowboys. Dez Bryant is dealing with a finger injury, meaning it’s time for Austin to carry more weight. Bryant has become Tony Romo’s go-to guy at wide receiver, but Austin still ranks 21st in the league in receiving yards this season. He's capable of playing like a No. 1 receiver, but he if he doesn’t over the next three games, the Cowboys’ playoff chances will be grow slimmer.

Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings. Over the past three games, Ponder has just 369 total yards passing. Adrian Peterson’s season looks even more remarkable, considering how Ponder has struggled. Would love to hear Larry Fitzgerald and Peterson having a candid conversation about their quarterbacks.

POTENTIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS IN TROUBLE

Bears. During Lovie Smith’s tenure in Chicago, the Bears are 15-18 during the final four games of the season. They have fallen from 7-1 to 8-5. If the Bears don’t finish the season strong and miss the playoffs, it would not be the first time that has happened to Smith. But it could be the last time, as speculation of Smith’s job is suddenly in vogue.

Steelers. They’ve lost to the Raiders, Titans, Browns and Chargers. That alone should make you ineligible for the playoffs. Yet, the Steelers (7-6) control their own destiny heading into Sunday’s road games against the Cowboys (7-6). The Steelers aren't a Super Bowl team, even if they make the playoffs. Their offensive line just isn’t good enough.

MORE REASON TO DOUBT THE FALCONS

Four of the last five No. 1 seeds in the NFC have been knocked out in the first round. The lone exception was the Saints, who won a Super Bowl in 2009. Last year, the Packers fell as the No. 1 seed, losing to the Giants.

The Falcons have not locked up the No. 1 seed, but if they do, recent history says it guarantees you nothing. Shows the importance of playing your best football in December and January, not September and October. The Falcons need to beat the Giants on Sunday, or doubt about Atlanta’s legitimacy as a Super Bowl team will increase for good reason.

JETS NEED TO BE HONEST ABOUT THEMSELVES

Their remaining schedule is soft, but if the Jets (6-7) somehow make the playoffs, the gap between them and the NFL’s top teams is wide. They need to take the approach the Broncos took after last season. The Broncos made the playoffs and even won a playoff game, but team executive John Elway knew they weren’t a contender. So he acted boldly and got Peyton Manning.

Manning won’t be available this offseason. But if the Jets think they can come back next year and contend with Mark Sanchez as their quarterback, without a much stronger supporting cast, they're not fooling anyone.