The top 10 governor's races of 2018

While Washington obsesses over congressional elections and gyrations in the generic ballot, the 36 races for governor across the country this fall could be the most consequential contests of 2018.

Special and off-year elections across the country suggest a possible Democratic wave that could reduce the party's historic deficit: Only 16 of the nation's 50 governors are Democrats. But 23 of the three-dozen gubernatorial races this year are in Republican-held states.

With less than nine months before Election Day, a new poll shows there is still no clear front runner in the crowded race to be Connecticut’s next governor.

The poll, by a Hartford-based public affairs and lobbying firm, says that 26 percent chose the generic “Democratic candidate’’ for governor as their top choice and 24.6 percent chose the “Republican candidate’’ for governor.

Among the named candidates, the leader was New Britain mayor Erin Stewart at 15.2 percent, followed by Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton at 11.1 percent. The two Republicans were followed by two well-known Democrats who have run in statewide races: former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz of Middletown at 10 percent and Greenwich cable television entrepreneur Ned Lamont at 8.8 percent.

In a huge field, none of the other candidates exceeded 1 percent in the poll, according to Tremont Public Advisors managing director Matthew Hennessy. Tremont oversaw the poll of more than 1,000 Connecticut residents that was conducted between February 15 and 17.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The candidates are scrambling for name recognition as the state party conventions are less than three months away. The Republicans will meet at Foxwoods resort casino on May 11 and 12, while the Democrats will meet at the Connecticut Convention Center in Hartford the following weekend.

Stewart is a newcomer in the race and was not mentioned in a similar poll by Tremont that was taken in December. Since then, Byswiewicz and Lamont have not moved much in the ratings. Bysiewicz was chosen by 9.6 percent in December and 10 percent in February, while Lamont was picked by 7.5 percent in December and 8.8 percent in the latest survey.

When the generic and named Republicans are added together, 50.9 percent of those surveyed said they would be voting for a Republican. The Democratic totals were 44.8 percent, Tremont said.

“State Republicans continue to have a good shot of taking the governor’s office and potentially have a candidate in Mayor Erin Stewart that might possibly blunt the historic electoral strength Democrats have with women voters,’’ said Hennessy, a longtime Democratic strategist.

Hartford - Connecticut residents are leaning toward putting a Republican in the Governor’s Mansion as the 2018 race for governor starts to take shape. In a poll released today by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors, Connecticut residents said they were more likely to support the Republican (50.9%) over the Democrat (44.8%) candidates for governor on election day this November.

The survey of 1,003 Connecticut residents over the age of 18 also showed, of the named candidates for governor tested in the survey, there was no candidate from either party dominating the crowded field of approximately 25 potential candidates. However, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart demonstrated some relative strength, out-polling the other named candidates in the survey.

Connecticut residents also expressed cautious optimism about their financial future with 39.3% expressing confidence they would be better off financially in the coming year. 43.4% of residents said their situation would remain the same and only 17.3% felt they would be worse off.

“There is good news for Republicans in the survey results released today.”, stated Matthew J. Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “State Republicans continue to have a good shot of taking the governor’s office and potentially have a candidate in Mayor Erin Stewart that might possibly blunt the historic electoral strength Democrats have with women voters.”

Hennessy also stated, “Democrats have to be concerned that there has a been an erosion in their support since December. To be successful, Democratic candidates will have to present themselves as credible change agents and connect the policies of a deeply unpopular president to the Republican candidates for governor.

The good news for Democrats is that survey respondents are expressing optimism about their personal financial situation, which may undermine attempts to blame state Democrats for poor stewardship of the state economy.

Residents are giving an edge to the Republicans in the race for governor. However, no candidate has gained enough support to be deemed a front-runner and it will likely be months before the leaders emerge from either party.”

Q.1

If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?

2/21 12/17*

The Democratic candidate for Governor 26% 24.7%

The Republican candidate for Governor 24.6% 32.8%

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart 15.2% N/A

Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton 11.1% 8.9%

Former CT Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz 10.0% 9.6%

Businessman Ned Lamont 8.8% 7.5%

Undecided/Other Candidate** 4.3% N/A

Total Republican (“Generic” +Named) 50.9% 47.9%

Total Democrat (“Generic +Named) 44.8% 52.1%

* The 12/17 Tremont Poll did not allow respondents to write in other candidates.

Q.2

Looking ahead, do you expect that at this time next year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

2/21 6/16 -Quinnipiac Poll

The Same 43.4% 19%

Better 39.3% 42%

Worse 17.3% 30%

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.

Poll Methodology

This survey of 1,003 and 1,027 Connecticut residents over the age of 18 was conducted between 2/15/18 and 2/17/18 using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%. The poll population consisted of two panels of respondents: (1) internet users reading content on a network of web publisher sites, and (2) smartphone users who have downloaded and signed up to use an Android app. To correct for sampling bias after the survey is run, weighting was used to upweight under-represented groups and down-weight overrepresented groups using Census Data.

Tremont Public Affairs, a top public affairs firm in Hartford, CT and Washington D.C., will release the results of the firm's most recent survey on the 2018 Connecticut Governor's Race tomorrow (2/21/18) at 10AM on its website www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/ .

The survey of 1,000 Connecticut residents, conducted between 2/15-2/17/18, asked respondents about their preference for governor in the November general election and how the viewed their financial stability in the coming year.

4. Connecticut — Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy is retiring.

Deep-blue Connecticut is actually one of Republicans' best opportunities in 2018. Malloy’s approval ratings were some of the worst among any governor in the country, and he decided not to run for a third term. But Republicans hope that environment in the state will clear the way for their candidate next fall. There are almost a dozen candidates running in the Republican primary and it’s unclear who will emerge as the nominee. A Tremont Public Advisors LLC poll conducted in mid-December found a generic Republican candidate beating a generic Democratic candidate

A survey released Monday by Tremont Public Advisors found that of the 1,154 residents 49.8 percent would elect a Democrat and 50.3 percent would elect a Republican.

“There is good and bad news for both Republicans and Democrats in the survey results,” Matthew Hennessy, managing director of Tremont Public Advisors, said Monday. “For Republicans to be neck and neck with Democrats in a state Hillary Clinton won by over 13 points has to heartening. However, it also shows that after months of attempting to tie the state’s fiscal woes and voter dissatisfaction of Governor Malloy to the next Democratic candidate for Governor, they just haven’t made a convincing case.”

At the same time, “Democrats have to be happy their candidates aren’t being significantly blamed for Connecticut’s woes. But, it just shouldn’t be this close,” Hennessy said.

“At this point, Connecticut residents aren’t connecting local Republicans with a very unpopular President Donald Trump, which is good news for the Connecticut GOP,” he said.

There are 22 Republicans vying for the top spot and at least six Democrats looking to replace Malloy.

The survey was conducted between Dec. 12 and Dec. 14 and has a three percent margin of error.

The governor’s race is currently being considered a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, which changed its outlook on the race in June.

“Solidly blue Connecticut seems an unlikely place to host a competitive gubernatorial contest, but the state’s economy is in tough shape as companies like General Electric and Aetna decamp to more business friendly states and the state budget is $5 billion in the red. Republicans will be very competitive here,” the report found.

Poll: CT Dems, GOP evenly matched in '18 governor's race

Connecticut residents are evenly split on whether a Republican or Democrat should replace outgoing Gov. Dannel P. Malloy when he completes his term at the end of 2018, according to a fresh online poll.

In the survey released Monday by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors, 1,154 adult residents were divided on whether they would elect a Democrat (49.8 percent) or a Republican (50.3 percent) next November.

The survey also showed that no current potential candidate from either party dominates the crowded field of approximately 20.

"For Republicans to be neck and neck with Democrats in a state Hillary Clinton won by over 13 points has to be heartening," said Matthew J. Hennessy, Tremont's managing director. "However, it also shows that after months of attempting to tie the state's fiscal woes and voter dissatisfaction of Gov. Malloy to the next Democratic candidate for governor, [Republicans] just haven't made a convincing case."

At the same time, Hennessy said the poll results "just shouldn't be this close.

"At this point, Connecticut residents aren't connecting local Republicans with a very unpopular President Donald Trump, which is good news for the Connecticut GOP," he said.

Tremont Public Advisors is a lobbying firm based in both Washington, D.C., and Hartford.

The online poll was conducted between Dec. 12 and 14. Residents were either internet users reading content on a network of web publisher sites or smartphone users who have signed up to use an Android app, Tremont said.

New Poll Shows No Clear Frontrunner in Gov Race

A new poll shows that there is no clear front runner in the wide-open Connecticut governor’s race — and that Republicans have a strong chance of succeeding outgoing Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy.

The poll of more than 1,150 Connecticut adults focused directly on who should be chosen governor in the 2018 race.

The winner?

The generic “Republican candidate for governor’’ got the most response at 35.4 percent. The second-place winner was the generic “Democratic candidate for governor’’ at 22.5 percent.

The poll by Hartford-based Tremont Public Advisors LLC was conducted online between December 12 and 14. The survey was taken during an ongoing polling vacuum because the predominant Quinnipiac Poll has not focused recently on Connecticut and has instead been conducting national polls on issues like President Donald J. Trump’s approval ratings.

“If the Quinnipiac Poll was out doing 1,000 Connecticut residents in live calls, there wouldn’t be a need for a private poll like this,’’ said Hartford Democratic political strategist Matthew Hennessy, who oversaw the poll.

The survey mentioned five candidates, but none of them scored anywhere near the levels of the generic Republican and Democratic responses.

The leader among the candidates was Hartford mayor Luke Bronin at 10.6 percent, followed by Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton at 9.3 percent and former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz at 9.2 percent. Greenwich television entrepreneur Ned Lamont was next at 7.5 percent, followed by former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker of Bridgeport at 5.6 percent.

The top four candidates were all jammed within the margin of error, which was plus or minus three percentage points.

“There doesn’t appear to be any candidate who is breaking away,’’ Hennessy said. “Somebody could get in the race in January, and there really isn’t an impediment to doing that because right now, there is no clear front runner on either side.’’

Besides Lamont, those who have not yet made any official announcements about joining the race include former 2014 candidate R. Nelson “Oz’’ Griebel of Hartford and New Britain mayor Erin Stewart.

“The Republicans are right in there, neck and neck, with the Democrats,’’ said Hennessy, a longtime Democrat who is not yet supporting anyone in the race. “Democrats have to be a bit concerned because Hillary Clinton won Connecticut by a little over 13 points, and Donald Trump, as the leader of the Republican Party, has extremely low approval ratings in Connecticut.’

Connecticut residents are evenly split on whether a Republican or Democrat should replace outgoing Governor Dan Malloy when he completes his term at the end of 2018. In a poll released today by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors, Connecticut residents were divided on whether they would elect a Democrat (52.1%) or a Republican (47.9%) in November of 2018.

The survey of 1,154 Connecticut residents over the age of 18 also showed that, of the candidates for Governor tested, there was no candidate from either party dominating the crowded field of approximately 20 potential candidates.

“There is good and bad news for both Republicans and Democrats in the survey results released today.”, stated Matthew J. Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “For Republicans to be neck and neck with Democrats in a state Hillary Clinton won by over 13 points has to heartening. However, it also shows that after months of attempting to tie the state’s fiscal woes and voter dissatisfaction of Governor Malloy to the next Democratic candidate for Governor, they just haven’t made a convincing case.”

Hennessy also stated, “Democrats have to be happy their candidates aren’t being significantly blamed for Connecticut’s woes. But, it just shouldn’t be this close. At this point, Connecticut residents aren’t connecting local Republicans with a very unpopular President Donald Trump, which is good news for the Connecticut GOP.”

“Residents haven’t coalesced around a candidate for Governor from either party at this point in the race. Potential candidates waiting in the wings could still enter the race in January without fear that other candidates have already made insurmountable in-roads with the voters.”

Poll Methodology

This survey of 1,154 Connecticut residents over the age of 18 was conducted between 12/12/17 and 12/14/17 using an on-line survey platform. The survey has a MOE of +/- 3%. The poll population consisted of two panels of respondents: (1) internet users reading content on a network of web publisher sites, and (2) smartphone users who have downloaded and signed up to use an Android app. To correct for sampling bias after the survey is run, weighting was used to upweight under-represented groups and down-weight overrepresented groups using Census Data.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy says that growing reports that he will leave the governorship before his term ends are “crazy.’’

Word has been spreading among lobbyists, state employees and political insiders that Malloy would step down before his term ends in January 2019 and allow Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman to become governor. Malloy, under the scenario, would then take a high-ranking position at the University of Connecticut or another college.

Malloy, 62, confirmed that the rumors have filtered back on a regular basis to his office.

“Every day — yes,’’ Malloy told The Courant.But he says he intends to continue working as governor and dismissed the reports as unfounded.“It’s crazy,’’ Malloy said. “We hear it all the time.’’

The rumors come as Malloy has already indicated he will not seek re-election in 2018. Wyman has not ruled out a run for governor and while it could benefit her chances at re-election if she were to run in 2018, Malloy maintained he has no plans of stepping down.

The governor’s office has also heard — and rejected — reports that Malloy would work for former White House aide Valerie Jarrett, a confidante of President Barack Obama who is interested in criminal justice reforms like Malloy. Another scenario involves him working for a major law firm.

The rumors have included not only taking a job at UConn, but the top job as the school’s president. But UConn spokeswoman Stephanie Reitz said it is the first she has heard of the governor replacing President Susan Herbst.

“I haven’t heard anything at all along those lines,’’ Reitz said Friday. “President Herbst has said repeatedly that she is very happy here, and the board of trustees and Gov. Malloy are happy with her. President Herbst is our president and will remain our president for the near future.’’

Herbst also has a contract that was extended through June 30, 2019.

In a similar way, the conventional wisdom among some political insiders at the Capitol throughout 2016 was that Malloy would be leaving early to take a federal position in Washington, D.C., under Hillary Clinton. Those reports ended abruptly when Clinton lost the election in November 2016 to Republican Donald Trump.

Matthew J. Hennessy, a longtime Hartford political operative, said the rumors have continued because the scenarios are not far-fetched.

“As governor, he’s been very interested in issues of education,’’ Hennessy said. “If Herbst was to leave, I think many people would say he would become a candidate for the position.’’

College presidents traditionally have included long-time academic provosts and deans with Ph.D. degrees who have spent their entire careers in education. But Malloy’s former chief of staff, Mark Ojakian, spent his career in the governor’s office, the state comptroller’s office and other positions before becoming the leader of the Connecticut public higher education system. In addition, Evan Dobelle was a one-time mayor of Pittsfield, Mass., and held other positions before becoming president of Trinity College in Hartford. He stepped down in 2001.

“There’s a history in both Connecticut and Massachusetts of people coming directly out of politics and going into education,’’ Hennessy said.