Wednesday, February 17, 2016

OH, MY: Ted Cruz Takes Lead in Major National Poll

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has surpassed Donald Trump for the top spot in a new national survey of the Republican presidential race from NBC News/Wall Street Journal.

Cruz leads the poll with the support of 28 percent of those surveyed, followed by Trump at 26 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 17 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent, and Ben Carson at 10 percent.

Trump dropped seven percentage points since last month, and hit his lowest point in the NBC/WSJ poll since October 2015 when Carson took the top spot. Cruz and Kasich each gained eight percentage points since January, the largest improvement of any candidate, and received their highest level of support ever in the poll.

"When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign," said Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with a Democratic pollster on behalf of Hart Research Associates, to NBC.

This is just a single poll, to be sure. But one can only hope and pray that a man grounded in the Constitution since his youth can attain the presidency.

From CTHThe technique the media use is the same as all previous attempts and carried the same basic elements in delivery:

♦ #1 – The polling sample size is heavily manipulated and intensely small. This “national poll” result is based on 400 contacts.

♦ #2 – To hide what is transparent in #1, they do not reveal the polling methodology or internals. (Same as all prior agenda polling.) They hide the poll data – SEE HERE – You’ll immediately note how chopped up it is.

♦ #3 – To protect their lack of integrity being fully dismissed they use multiple “disclaimers” (as noted above)

♦ #4 – Agenda Pollsters have a history which evidences the first three elements. Meaning they are repeat offenders.

All five of the above factors are evident in all noted and previously explained agenda polling examples –SEE HERE– The purpose is to create a narrative for the media to sell – and you can expect to see almost all media jump into action to assist their corporate colleague.

It is simply what they do.

I'm ashamed Doug that you're attempting to foist this crap off a legitimate polling.

For the record, I support Cruz but this is a meaningless poll as its getting through the primaries and accumulating the delegates that matter. I abhor Trump who somehow has bamboozled people into believing he's a Republican, but unless something happens in the primaries, this Tar Baby is going to be the Republican Party. Go figure.

For the record, I support Cruz but this is a meaningless poll as its getting through the primaries and accumulating the delegates that matter. I abhor Trump who somehow has bamboozled people into believing he's a Republican, but unless something happens in the primaries, this Tar Baby is going to be the Republican Party. Go figure.

This is truly bad news for Trump, even acknowledging the weakness of the polling method. I'm not a big believer in primary poll numbers, absolutely speaking, but I do believe they capture shifts when the methodology is held constant.

Yes, this poll has a smaller sample size than several others, which explains the slightly larger margin of error (5-6% as opposed to 3-4%). But, even using the full margin of error, that is, under the assumption that this is an outlier, it shows a marked narrowing of the race.

This poll is important. It shows some shift after Trump's Saturday Night Meltdown, and perhaps a sobering of the electorate after the death of Scalia. If it holds up--we shall see--it would mean that Trump will hit a much bigger wall going into states like Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas. He will especially have trouble in the closed primaries, because he depends so much on cross-over independents and Democrats. (Both New Hampshire and South Carolina are open primaries.) But the killer in this poll (as well as in previous ones) is the way both Cruz and Rubio trounce Trump in any one-on-one contest. As the field narrows, and it will probably narrow again after South Carolina, the solidly anti-Trump part of the electorate will weigh more heavily upon him. If the field narrows to two candidates after Super Tuesday, Trump will lose the nomination. If it does not, he stands a good chance of winning.

No Jeff this poll is not important. Why is more legitimate then the latest Quinnipiac poll showing Trump crushing Cruz. A poll using 4x the respondents done by a reputable polling company that releases it's methodology and wording. It also is showing Cruz starting to slip as his lies, editing and lies of omission begin to rub people the wrong way. Face it, Ted Cruz can not give a simple answer to any questions. If you can watch him answer say a question about amnesty and come away with knowing exactly what he'd do, then I gotta hand it to you, you're a farking mindreader of the first order.

This outlier is from the WSJ and they are looking for any kind of narrative they can find to create infighting between Trump and Cruz. The fact you think it's important says you're a typical Cruzbot ignoring EVERY other legitimate poll, showing Trump crushing Cruz.MM