Deputy Foreign Minister Georgii Mamedov said after talks in Moscow on
21 October with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and
International Security John Bolton (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October
2002) that Washington has given Moscow confidential information about
North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, and the Kremlin is now verifying
it, Russian news agencies reported on 22 October. "We are in no hurry
to draw conclusions and want to check out the information, especially
since we have good relations with Pyongyang, Tokyo, and Seoul," Mamedov
said. He also said Russia believes problems concerning North Korea
should be resolved peacefully "without harassment or pressure," and
that the United States understands how dangerous it would be to create
"a crisis situation in this complicated region." Russian Atomic Energy
Minister Aleksandr Rumyantsev said after his meeting with Bolton that
he finds it hard to imagine that North Korea could have the technology
to create nuclear weapons, Ekho Moskvy reported on 21 October. VY

According to RFE/RL's Magadan correspondent Mikhail Gorbunov on 21
October, the most likely motive for the murder of Magadan Governor
Valentin Tsvetkov on 18 October in Moscow was the governor's inquiry
into what happened to the bulk of a $75 million dollar credit granted
to the oblast. In an interview with the Moscow bureau, Gorbunov said
about $43 million of the sum remains in Moscow, while the rest never
made it to Magadan. Tsvetkov might have started to "unravel" the
mystery of the missing money. According to reports, Tsvetkov was
determined to recover the money, and in his enthusiasm for the task, he
might have ruffled some feathers. According to Gorbunov, both
Tsvetkov's friends and his enemies called him "Bulldozer," and "this
nickname described him perfectly." JAC

A Magadan official, who requested anonymity, sarcastically commented on
Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov's pledge to cleanse Magadan of
criminals (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 2002), saying, "[If only]
they would cleanse Moscow...," "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 22
October. According to the daily, Magadan-based policymakers and
journalists believe that to determine the motive for Tsvetkov's murder
it is necessary to search not in Magadan, but in Moscow or Vladivostok.
JAC

Speaking in Kaliningrad on 22 October, Mikhail Kasyanov said a solution
to the problem of access to Kaliningrad Oblast following expected
European Union expansion will be resolved at an EU-Russia summit in
Copenhagen on 11 November, Russian news agencies reported. Kasyanov
added that he cannot predict whether it will be a permanent solution or
a temporary one, but he noted that talks with the EU have been
proceeding more smoothly than previously. The prime minister, who was
in Kaliningrad to chair a session of the Naval Collegium, also said
that the personal-income growth rate in the oblast is lower than the
national average and called for special government measures to support
the exclave's economy. VY

On the sidelines of the Asian Pacific Economic Conference in Los Cabos,
Mexico, on 25-27 October, President Vladimir Putin will hold a summit
with U.S. President George W. Bush, during which the two men will
discuss key issues of global strategic stability and efforts to combat
international terrorism, RIA-Novosti reported on 21 October, citing
Putin's foreign policy aide, Sergei Prikhodko. Putin will also meet in
Mexico with Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi, and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien. VY

In a long article in "Novaya gazeta," No. 77, two of the newspaper's
investigative journalists allege that members of Russia's intelligence
and military services have created special funds -- including charity
funds -- that might be used to bankroll upcoming national and local
elections. The weekly reported that when Yukos published data about its
shareholders this summer, it was revealed that Viktor Ivanenko, who
served as briefly the director of the Russian Federation's KGB in 1991
and who now serves as Yukos vice president responsible for security,
has a Yukos stake worth around $110 million and noted that "that kind
of money would be enough for any election campaign." The newspaper also
reported that a recently created Russian Free Elections Fund is headed
by Lieutenant General Andrei Przhezdomskii, who retired as deputy
director of the Federal Tax Police in 1999 after spending a career in
the intelligence services. Other members of the board of this fund are
former Foreign Intelligence Service head and former Prime Minister
Yevgenii Primakov and former Federal Security Service directors Nikolai
Kovalev and Sergei Stepashin. The authors of the article conclude that
the kingmakers in Russian politics might no longer be the oligarchs,
but the special services, which will be able to "create" new Duma
members and regional leaders with their special funds. JAC

President Putin vetoed on 21 October amendments to the law on the stock
market that were approved by the State Duma on 13 September, polit.ru
reported. Putin said the bill requires fundamental reworking. Vladimir
Tarachev, deputy chairman of the Duma's Banking Committee, said
legislators were completely surprised by some of the presidential
administration's suggestions, several of which require additional
clarification. However, the Federal Securities Commission reacted
calmly to news of the veto, "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 22 October.
The commission's press secretary, Ilya Razbash, said the commission
will work on the bill, and members hope the modified amendments will be
in effect by the end of the year. JAC

Commenting on the 20 October presidential elections in Kalmykia,
Central Election Commission Chairman Aleksandr Veshnyakov told
reporters in Moscow on 21 October, "It is impossible to say the
elections in Kalmykia were undemocratic, Neanderthal," RosBalt
reported. Veshnyakov recalled that seven years ago only one candidate
came forward for the election, even though this violated local law. In
the latest race, Veshnyakov noted, there were 11 candidates, and the
electorate "had a real opportunity to choose." He also noted that 40
percent of the republic's population voted against incumbent President
Kirsan Ilyumzhinov. A second round will be held on 27 October, RBK
reported on 22 October. JAC

[09] ...AND ECHOES CALL TO RENAME JOB TITLE OF LEADERS OF ETHNIC
REPUBLICS

According to ITAR-TASS, Veshnyakov also said that only the president of
the Russian Federation should have the title "president." He said the
leaders of regions and republics within the federation "could be called
something else." Recently, Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov
and Mukhu Aliev, chairman of the parliament of Daghestan, expressed the
same sentiment (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 and 15 October 2002). JAC

Despite the fact that Ilyumzhinov picked up nearly three times as many
votes as his second-place rival, High Technology Bank Chairman Baatyr
Shondzhiev, the latter has a good chance of unseating the incumbent,
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 22 October. The daily noted that the
anti-Ilyumzhinov opposition will now be represented by a single
candidate who will be able to boil down his campaign to the simple
slogan "against Ilyumzhinov." Moreover, Shondzhiev has openly declared
that he is supported by the "St. Petersburg" clan in the Kremlin,
particularly by deputy head of the presidential administration Viktor
Ivanov (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 and 18 October 2002). Ilyumzhinov is
reportedly supported by the remnants of the Yeltsin-era "family,"
especially presidential Chief of Staff Aleksandr Voloshin. The second
round in Kalmykia, the paper speculates, might reveal details about the
relative strengths of these two factions. Strana.ru, on the other hand,
wrote that Ilyumzhinov is certain to win the second round, but that his
monopoly on power in the republic has been irreparably broken. "If it
becomes necessary, the federal center will know to whom among
Kalmykia's politicians it can talk to get around Ilyumzhinov," the
website editorialized. RC

Leaders of Russia's liberal political parties and groups met at the
fourth All-Russia Democratic Conference in Moscow on 22 October,
polit.ru and other Russian news agencies reported. The Union of
Rightist Forces (SPS) repeated its call for liberals to agree on a
single candidate to run in the 2004 presidential election, while
Yabloko leader Grigorii Yavlinskii called for coordinating tactics on a
wider range of issues, noting that the popularity of the leftist
parties is increasing. He repeated his call for a "unified platform of
the democratic forces" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 2002). SPS
advocated calling a "Democratic Congress" following next year's Duma
elections, with delegates to the congress being apportioned according
to the proportion of votes each party garners during those elections.
The congress would then nominate a presidential candidate, who would be
supported by all the parties. RC

The mayor of Urai in Khanty-Mansii Autonomous Okrug, Aleksandr Safonov,
was elected to the State Duma in by-elections held on 20 October,
strana.ru reported. Safonov received 54.6 percent of the vote against
27 percent for independent candidate Lyudmila Anaikina. Some 13 percent
of voters voted against all candidates, RIA-Novosti reported. Safonov,
39, will replace Aleksandr Lotarev, who was named head of the State
Duma's apparatus (see "RFE/RL Russian Political Weekly," 9 April 2002).
JAC

Soviet dictator Josef Stalin secretly offered Adolf Hitler a separate
peace in February 1942 and proposed that the Soviet Union and Nazi
Germany join forces against the United States and the United Kingdom,
"Komsomolskaya pravda" reported on 17 October, citing recently
declassified Soviet intelligence documents published in a new book by
veteran military-intelligence officer Vladimir Karpov. In a document
dated 19 February 1942, which was one of the lowest points of the war
for the Soviet Union, Stalin offered a complete truce on the eastern
front. Further, he offered to undertake a joint military offensive
against the other Allies "to restructure the world" by the end of 1943
under the pretext of accusing "world Jewry of war-mongering." In a
second document, dated 27 February 1942, Vsevolod Merkulov, a chief of
the Soviet security apparatus, reported on a meeting with a
high-ranking Nazi figure, SS General Karl Wolf, in Mtsensk, in
Belarusian territory that was occupied by German forces. Merkulov
reported that Wolf elaborated German counterproposals under which
Stalin should "solve the Jewish question" in the Soviet Union before
Germany would agree to an alliance against the Allies. Wolf reportedly
said that Berlin would be willing to make territorial concessions to
the Soviet Union in Europe and to change the color of the swastika on
the Nazi flag from black to red. Merkulov also reported that Berlin was
insisting on "unacceptable" demands, including German control over
Latin America, the Arab world, and North Africa and Japanese control
over China. Despite these revelations, Karpov's book, "Generalissimo,"
comes across as a panegyric to Stalin, as the author refrains from
criticism and ignores the victims of Stalin's repression,
"Komsomolskaya pravda" commented. VY

Ulyanovsk Mayor Pavel Romanenko has expressed his intention to run for
governor of the oblast in 2004, regions.ru reported on 21 October. When
asked whether he would support the re-election of Governor Vladimir
Shamanov, Romanenko said, "In the event that Vladimir Shamanov
officially puts forward his candidacy for the post, then I will become
his competitor." JAC

The Rostov-based women's group Soglasie has called for setting a gender
quota of 70 percent on the party lists for regional and national
elections, regions.ru reported on 21 October, citing Ekho Rostova.
According to the site, group activists say their secret weapon in the
struggle for women's rights is that the fact about 53 percent of the
Russian electorate is female. JAC

Presidential aide Sergei Yastrzhembskii told Interfax on 21 October
that Moscow's position on possible peace talks with Chechen President
Aslan Maskhadov remains unchanged and that such talks may be held
between Maskhadov's representative and presidential envoy for the South
Russia Federal District Viktor Kazantsev. Yastrzhembskii added that
recent peace initiatives -- by which he presumably meant the planned
meeting next month in Switzerland of former Russian Security Council
Secretary Ivan Rybkin, Chechnya's State Duma Deputy Aslanbek
Aslakhanov, and Maskahdov's envoy Akhmed Zakaev (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
17 October 2002) -- constitute "a private initiative" that "does not
reflect the position of the federal center." "Vremya novostei" on 21
October suggested the Chechen leadership is so alarmed at the prospect
that Moscow will agree to peace talks with Maskhadov that both
administration head Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov and Prime Minister Stanislav
Ilyasov traveled to Moscow late last week to try to persuade the
Kremlin not to embark on such talks. LF

[17] ...AS GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE WILL NOT MEDIATE IN CHECHEN
CONFLICT

In his traditional Monday radio address, Eduard Shevardnadze said on 21
October that media reports he will meet with Maskhadov before the end
of this year are untrue, Interfax reported. Shevardnadze stressed that
Russia would consider any mediation effort he undertook unacceptable.
Rybkin met with Shevardnadze last month to brief him on his new Chechen
peace proposal and said afterward that he considers the Georgian
president a possible mediator (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 September
2002). Maskhadov asked Shevardnadze to mediate with Russia in early
October 1999 at the time of the second Russian incursion into Chechnya,
and Shevardnadze agreed to do so. However, the Russian leadership at
the time ruled that no such outside involvement was necessary (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 1 and 5 October 1999). LF

Security forces have arrested a man in connection with the abduction of
Doctors Without Borders staffer Kenny Gluck in Chechnya in January
2001, ITAR-TASS reported on 21 October. The suspect's name was not
divulged, but he is said to belong to a guerrilla formation headed by
field commander Abubakar Djumaev, AP reported. Gluck was snatched from
his car by unidentified men in the Chechen village of Starye Atagi,
south of Grozny, on 9 January, and freed by federal forces one month
later (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 January and 5 February 2001). LF

[19] INTERIOR MINISTRY TO ASSUME COMMAND OF MILITARY OPERATIONS IN
CHECHNYA?

The Interior Ministry will most probably take over control of the
"antiterrorism" operation in Chechnya from the Federal Security Service
(FSB) by the summer of 2003, once the "ringleaders" of the Chechen
resistance have been eliminated, Russian news agencies quoted Interior
Minister Gryzlov as telling journalists in Moscow on 21 October. The
FSB assumed command of the war in January 2001 from the Defense
Ministry (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 January 2001). In related news,
Lieutenant General Sergei Makarov has been appointed commander of the
Joint Group of Federal Forces in the North Caucasus, replacing Colonel
General Vladimir Moltenskoi, who has been named first deputy commander
of the Russian ground forces, "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 19
October. LF

As widely anticipated, Prime Minister Andranik Markarian's Republican
Party of Armenia (HHK) has won a landslide victory in elections in
Armenia's 930 local communities on 20 October, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau
reported the following day. Candidates who were either HHK members or
were supported by the HHK won the posts of mayor in 30 of Armenia's 37
towns and cities. The pro-presidential Orinats Yerkir (Law-Based State)
won in four towns and 48 villages, while the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun fielded three mayoral candidates in towns --
all of whom were defeated -- but won in dozens of smaller communities.
Voter participation was estimated at 46 percent, according to RFE/RL.
The former ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement, the National
Democratic Union, and the Communist Party all alleged numerous
violations, including attempts to buy votes in a small town north of
Yerevan. Numerous instances were also reported in which voters' names
were omitted from voter lists, one prominent omission being Foreign
Minister Vartan Oskanian, according to ITAR-TASS on 21 October. LF

Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze told journalists in Tbilisi on
21 October that although the recent anticrime and antiterrorism
operation has succeeded in expelling the "absolute majority" of the
fighters who took refuge in the Pankisi Gorge, some still remain,
ITAR-TASS reported. Shevardnadze did not name a specific figure and
added that he cannot say whether the remaining fighters are Chechens or
Arabs. Caucasus Press on 22 October quoted National Security Minister
Valeri Khaburzania as saying that up to 60 militants might still be
hiding out in districts of Georgia bordering Russia. Speaking the
previous day on the independent television station Rustavi-2,
Khaburzania declined to confirm or deny the accuracy of a "Time"
magazine report that claimed two Al-Qaeda members were apprehended in
Georgia earlier this year and probably taken to the U.S. military base
at Guantanamo, Cuba. LF

[23] ABKHAZ OFFICIALS AGAIN CLAIM CHECHENS HAVE TAKEN REFUGE IN KODORI

Some 50 Chechen fighters who were squeezed out of the Pankisi Gorge by
the antiterrorism operation have taken refuge in the upper,
Georgian-controlled reaches of the Kodori Gorge, Caucasus Press quoted
unnamed Abkhaz Interior Ministry officials as saying on 22 October.
Tbilisi responded to earlier such claims last month with
counter-accusations that Abkhaz and Russian troops were being deployed
near the gorge in preparation for an offensive against the local
Georgian population. On 21 October, Georgian Minister for Special
Assignments Malkhaz Kakabadze met with Russian Ambassador Vladimir
Gudev to discuss the situation in Kodori, Caucasus Press reported. LF

At a congress in Tbilisi, some 4,000 members of the Tbilisi-based Union
of Veterans of the 1992-93 Abkhaz War have demanded that Shevardnadze
fire Adjar State Council Chairman Aslan Abashidze as his personal envoy
for the Abkhaz conflict, Caucasus Press reported on 21 October (see
"RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 5, No. 34, 11 October 2002). They also
expressed support for the mediation efforts of UN special envoy Heidi
Tagliavini. Malkhaz Kakabadze Malkhaz. LF

[25] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT CONDEMNS OPPOSITION THREAT TO IMPEACH MINISTER
OF STATE

Shevardnadze told journalists in Tbilisi on 21 October that plans by
the four opposition parties to impeach Minister of State Avtandil
Djorbenadze, whom they blame for chronic budget deficits, are likely to
prove counterproductive, Caucasus Press reported. Shevardnadze claimed
Djorbenadze and other government ministers are working 24 hours per day
to try to ensure that revenue targets are met. Impeaching Djorbenadze
would jeopardize the success of those efforts, Shevardnadze argued. LF

In a 20 October by-election, Kurmanbek Bakiev -- who resigned as prime
minister five months ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2002) -- was
elected to represent the southern district of Ala-Bukin in the lower
chamber of the Kyrgyz parliament, akipress.org reported on 21 October.
Bakiev garnered 67.3 percent of the vote, defeating five rival
candidates in a ballot that domestic observers termed free of
violations. Voter turnout was 59 percent. In a second by-election the
same day in another southern constituency, Bakiev's predecessor as
premier, Amangeldy Muraliev, placed third after Osh State University
Rector Muktar Orozbekov and a senior railways official, Mamasadyk
Bakirov, who will participate in a runoff for which no date has yet
been set. LF

Visiting Bishkek on 20-21 October, Kofi Annan met with President Askar
Akaev and with the speakers of both chambers of the Kyrgyz parliament
to discuss regional security issues and Kyrgyz-UN relations, RFE/RL's
Bishkek bureau reported. Annan also participated on 21 October in the
opening of a UN House. Police detained for the duration of that
ceremony some 50 supporters of jailed former Vice President Feliks
Kulov who tried to stage a protest picket outside the building. In his
speech at the opening ceremony, Akaev expressed gratitude for the UN's
support for political and economic reforms in Kyrgyzstan and its
efforts to reduce poverty and alleviate the plight of refugees. Annan
called on the Kyrgyz leadership to continue to demonstrate a commitment
to both democratic reforms and human rights, Interfax reported. LF

Some 5,000 personnel from the Tajik Defense and Interior ministries and
two regiments of Russia's 201st Motorized Division, which is
permanently stationed in Tajikistan, held joint maneuvers from 14-20
October at the Lyaur training ground near Dushanbe, Russian news
agencies reported. Fifty armored vehicles and six warplanes also took
part in the war games, which simulated cooperation in repelling an
incursion onto Tajik territory by criminal and terrorist groups.
Russian General Anatolii Sidyakin, who commanded the maneuvers,
stressed that the 201st division will not be withdrawn from Tajikistan.
Division commander Yurii Perminov rejected as untrue media reports that
junior Afghan army officers and 50 Afghan pilots are being trained in
Tajikistan. LF

Following talks in Tashkent on 21 October with his visiting Polish
counterpart Aleksander Kwasniewski, Uzbek President Islam Karimov told
journalists the two countries are planning "serious moves" toward
bilateral military cooperation to combat terrorism, joint military
training, and information exchanges, AP and Interfax reported.
Kwasniewski, for his part, praised Uzbekistan's support for the
international antiterrorism coalition, its "stabilizing" role in
Central Asia, and the interethnic and inter-confessional harmony that
exists in the country. He said that "as a member of NATO and a future
member of the European Union, Poland is ready to be a window onto
Europe for Uzbekistan," ITAR-TASS reported. LF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

[30] U.S. OFFICIAL SLAMS BELARUS'S 'LACK OF RESPECT' FOR OSCE
PRINCIPLES

Douglas Davidson, deputy head of the U.S. mission to the OSCE Permanent
Council in Vienna, has criticized Belarus for its threat to close the
OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group (AMG) in Minsk, Belapan reported on
21 October. Davidson said such a move would manifest an "overriding
lack of respect" for OSCE principles. "We reject the notion of the
Belarusian side that this matter is about respect for the views of a
host state," Davidson said, according to Belapan. Belarus has
repeatedly charged that the AMG was engaged in political activities for
the opposition and demanded a change of the group's mandate. "Belarus
advised that it would not entertain negotiations on a future OSCE
presence until the Permanent Council adopted a decision formally
closing the AMG," Davidson said. He added that this statement
contravenes the position conveyed by Belarusian Foreign Minister
Mikhail Khvastou, who informed OSCE Chairman in Office Antonio Martins
da Cruz in New York in September that he will instruct Belarusian
Permanent Representative Viktar Haysyonak to negotiate an immediate
resolution of the AMG controversy. JM

Ukrainian lawmakers from the officially announced 226-strong
parliamentary majority (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 October 2002) met on
21 October with President Leonid Kuchma and Premier Anatoliy Kinakh,
UNIAN reported. The meeting took place behind closed doors, and no
official news conference was held after it concluded. The gathering was
reportedly attended by 211 legislators. "The majority exists only de
jure; it does not exist de facto," Social Democratic Party-united
caucus member Oleksandr Volkov commented. Answering a question on
whether the majority is going to reappoint the heads of parliamentary
committees, Volkov said such a move has been postponed in order not to
disrupt the dialogue between the majority and Viktor Yushchenko's Our
Ukraine. Lawmaker Oleh Bespalov from People's Power faction also
confirmed that the continuation of the dialogue with Yushchenko was
discussed at the meeting, but he did not elaborate. Our Ukraine's Yuriy
Kostenko commented on 22 October that the meeting of the "so-called
parliamentary majority" with Kuchma has blocked the process of creating
a "democratic parliamentary majority" with the participation of Our
Ukraine. JM

Four former executives of the Unified Energy Systems of Ukraine were
extradited from Turkey on 21 October, Ukrainian and international news
agencies reported. The four, who were jailed in Turkey in June
following a request from the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General's Office,
include former board Chairman Yevhen Shaho and Hennadiy Tymoshenko, the
father-in-law of opposition leader Yuliya Tymoshenko. They are
suspected of hiding hard-currency profits and stealing state assets
while working for the energy company. Yuliya Tymoshenko had requested
that Turkish authorities grant the four asylum, claiming the arrest
warrant is a politically motivated attack against her opposition
activities. JM

The Center Party emerged the clear winner of elections to local
councils in the largest northwestern cities of Narva and Kohtla-Jarve
on 20 October, BNS reported the next day. The party garnered 50.5
percent of the vote and 18 of the 31 seats in Narva, and 42.8 percent
and 17 seats of the 35 seats in Kohtla-Jarve. In the western seaside
resort of Haapsalu, the centrist Res Publica gained eight of the 21
seats and, by forming a coalition with the right-wing Pro Patria Union,
which gained four seats, will supplant the Reform Party (six seats),
which has ruled the city since 1996. The Center Party won the other
three seats. SG

Representatives of the New Era, the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS),
Latvia First Party (LPP), and For the Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK
(TB/LNNK) discussed in coalition talks on 21 October the distribution
of cabinet posts in a new government, LETA reported. The parties agreed
that, in a cabinet headed by New Era Chairman Einars Repse, the New Era
will have eight ministries, the ZZS and LPP three each, and the TB/LNNK
two. The New Era has abandoned previously proposed candidates for the
Agriculture and Transportation ministries (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10
October 2002). Martins Roze of the ZZS will be agriculture minister.
Current Defense Minister Girts Valdis Kristovskis (TB/LNNK) appears
likely to retain his post. The parties will continue talks on the
makeup of the cabinet on 23 October -- when parliamentary posts might
also play a factor. Parliamentary functions have not been discussed
because the official election results and list of elected
representatives is to be announced on 22 October. SG

President Valdas Adamkus told an information-technology (IT) conference
on 21 October that while he is glad computer literacy in Lithuania is
improving, there is a clear need to establish an institution to
coordinate IT activities among state institutions, ELTA reported.
Petras Austrevicius, Lithuania's chief negotiator with the EU, noted
that EU membership would open new opportunities to attract IT
investments to Lithuania. The head of the European Commission's
delegation in Lithuania, Michael Graham, told the conference that
Lithuania still has problems organizing EU-funded projects, and that
although the state has accomplished much in the IT field,
nontransparent services-procurement tenders have raised doubts about
the effective use of EU funds. SG

Commenting on the Irish referendum approving the Treaty of Nice on 19
October, Prime Minister Leszek Miller expressed his hope on 21 October
that the Dutch will not oppose EU enlargement, PAP reported. The Dutch
government recently collapsed amid doubts expressed by Dutch
politicians that all the aspiring countries will be ready for EU
membership. "I think that such an approach reflects their
disinclination to enlargement and [their] conviction that the current
EU is so rich that it should not share this wealth with 10 other
countries," Miller commented, according to PAP. According to a poll
conducted by CBOS on 11-14 October among 1,231 adult Poles, 71 percent
of those declaring their willingness to take part in the EU membership
referendum said they will vote "yes." JM

A recent poll by the Center for Public Opinion Research (CVVM) suggests
a majority of Czech citizens are unhappy with the current political
situation in the country, Czech media reported on 21 October. Some 58
percent of Czechs said they are dissatisfied with the political
situation, while 37 percent said they are happy. The figures signal a
slight increase in political dissatisfaction over the summer, but the
number of those unhappy is well below the record high of 80 percent
recorded in 1990. BW

According to other recent polls, President Vaclav Havel's popularity is
at the lowest level of his 13-year presidency, "Mlada fronta Dnes"
reported on 21 October. According to the daily, just 45 percent of
Czechs trust Havel. Public trust in Havel has declined to 40 percent
from 47 percent in April, according to a CVVM poll released on 17
October and cited by CTK. The president's popularity dropped sharply in
the wake of August flooding due to his failure to return immediately
from a vacation in Portugal. BW

A spokesman for the Czech president meanwhile has dismissed a report in
"The New York Times" claiming Havel told U.S. officials there is no
evidence that suspected 11 September hijacker Mohammad Atta met an
Iraqi intelligence agent in Prague, CTK reported on 22 October. The 21
October report cited unidentified Czech officials as saying Havel
discreetly called White House officials to cast doubt on the alleged
meeting (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 2002). "It is a fabrication.
Nothing like this has occurred," Havel's spokesman, Ladislav Spacek,
said of the alleged phone conversation. BW

Czech law enforcement officials urged people planning to be in Prague
during the 21-22 November NATO summit to obey all police orders without
question, CTK reported on 21 October. The Interior Ministry has
published instructions on how to behave during the summit on its
website (http://www.mvcr.cz). All individuals are advised to carry
passports or other valid identification documents at all times. Police
also say citizens should avoid situations that attract the attention of
the police and quickly leave gatherings that could turn violent. Police
also advised Prague residents to be vigilant and to inform police of
any weapons that demonstrators might possess. BW

Police in Slovakia have come under fire from an angry public due to a
surge of drunk-driving accidents involving law enforcement officers, AP
reported on 21 October. So far this year, 27 police officers have been
involved in accidents in which alcohol was allegedly involved. Six
people, including a mother and her 14-month-old baby, have been killed.
All of the officers involved were fired, Slovak police officials said.
"When policemen who should be watchdogs of laws break them and drive
like this in public,... it's viewed very sensitively," ministry
spokesman Jozef Sitar told AP. Police are now subject to random breath
tests for alcohol. BW

Nine members of the newly elected Slovak parliament, including two
cabinet members, appear on a list of people accused of collaborating
with Czechoslovakia's communist-era secret police (StB), the daily
"Sme" reported on 21 October. The so-called "Cibulka List," named after
Petr Cibulka, the dissident-activist who published the unconfirmed
list, purports to identify 180,000 people who collaborated knowingly or
unknowingly with the StB. Eight of those mentioned by "Sme" were listed
as StB informants and one as an agent. Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan is
one of those named, and he has already issued a denial. "My past is the
way it is. I cannot change it. Everyone knows it. But allegations of
collaboration with the StB are untrue," he said, according to the
daily. Health Minister Rudolf Zajac was also listed as an informant.
Three names from Vladimir Meciar's opposition Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia (HZDS) appear on the list, including former Prime Minister and
party Chairman Meciar, party Deputy Chairman Vojtech Tkac, and
parliamentary deputy speaker Viliam Veteska. Marian Gula, director of
the Slovak Office for Documenting Communist Crimes, told the daily that
he considers the list a reliable source of information. BW

Lajos Ficzere, chairman of the National Election Commission, on 21
October declared Hungary's local elections "clean and successful and
untainted by any major incidents," Hungarian media reported. He said
local and regional electoral commissions had to determine the election
results by late afternoon on 21 October. Formal protests must be filed
on 22 October, and once those objections have been addressed, the
election results will become final. However, Ficzere emphasized that
several provisions of the electoral law, including those pertaining to
equal opportunity and fairness, must be made unequivocal. Ficzere also
said regulations governing the election of minority groups'
representatives need to be changed, adding that the government will
address the matter. MSZ

As a result of the 20 October local elections, allegiances in seven of
Budapest's 23 districts shifted from a right-wing mayor to a left-wing
candidate representing the Socialist-Free Democrat alliance, Budapest
dailies reported on 22 October. Mayors representing those two parties
-- which also compose the Hungarian government coalition -- will govern
in 17 districts, with right-wing mayors in four others and two
districts run by independent mayors. The 52.67 percent voter turnout in
Budapest represents a record high for local elections. The allocation
of seats on the Budapest City Council was adjusted slightly since
preliminary results were publicized on 21 October (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 21 October 2002). Instead of 25 seats, the Socialists (MSZP)
obtained 24, while the Hungarian Justice and Life Party now has five
seats, rather than the four initially reported. The FIDESZ-Democratic
Forum-Christian Democrat alliance won 21 seats, and the Free Democrats
garnered 16. MSZ

MSZP Chairman Laszlo Kovacs on 21 October told reporters in Budapest
that the "civic left wing" won the 20 October municipal elections,
adding that voters "gave an affirmative answer to the union of
Socialist and Free Democrat forces," Hungarian media reported. Kovacs
asserted that left-wing candidates attracted three times as many votes
as FIDESZ representatives, as approximately 2,700,000 people backed the
MSZP and only 900,000 voted for FIDESZ. Kovacs said there is no
question of "punishing opposition-run towns," adding that "peace and
calm will prevail in the country." MSZ

FIDESZ Executive Chairman Janos Ader on 21 October acknowledged that
FIDESZ lost the local elections, noting that the MSZP scored a bigger
victory than his party did four years ago, Budapest dailies reported.
Ader admitted he discouraged former Prime Minister Viktor Orban from
appearing at party headquarters on the night of elections. Ader said
that "despite the defeat, FIDESZ's voter base remains stable." He vowed
that the "appropriate conclusions will be drawn" and that there will be
political consequences. MSZ

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Medgyessy on 21 October sent a letter of
congratulations to his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern, expressing
satisfaction on behalf of all Hungarians with the Irish government and
voters who "displayed wisdom and historic generosity" on 20 October in
voting in favor of the Treaty of Nice, and thus for enlargement of the
EU, "Magyar Hirlap" reported. MSZ

The Belgrade daily "Blic" wrote on 22 October that SFOR peacekeepers
recently found evidence that the Orao and Obarska companies in
Bijeljina have been involved in illegal arms sales to Iraq through the
Jugoimport company in Belgrade, Fena news agency reported (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 9, 10, 11, 13, and 16 September and 15 October 2002). "Blic"
did not identify its sources. The article added that evidence found in
Bijeljina shows that Yugoslav experts are in Iraq to install the
unspecified equipment and train Iraqis in its use. Other documents
indicate that Jugoimport wants the Iraqis to destroy or return all
evidence of its involvement in the sales, according to the daily. The
results of the findings have reportedly been made known to top Yugoslav
and Serbian officials, including Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica,
Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, and Dusan Mihajlovic, who is
both Serbian police chief and head of Jugoimport's board of directors.
"Blic" also claimed that some of the money from the sales went to fund
the recent presidential campaign of Radical Party leader Vojislav
Seselj and the activities of some other politicians. The report in
"Blic" has not been independently confirmed. PM

In Belgrade on 21 October, Carla Del Ponte, who is the chief prosecutor
of the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, gave Serbian and Yugoslav
officials indictments of three Bosnian Serbs for their role in the 1995
Srebrenica massacre, a statement from the tribunal said. The three are
Drago Nikolic, Vujadin Popovic, and Ljubisa Beara. Each of the three
has been indicted on one count of genocide and at least three counts of
crimes against humanity. Del Ponte also said she intends to complain
again to the UN Security Council that Belgrade authorities are
obstructing her work, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21
October 2002). She noted Belgrade's failure to arrest war crimes
suspects and open its military archives to the tribunal. PM

On 21 October, judges in Banja Luka sentenced 14 men to prison terms
ranging from two to 13 months for their roles in the 2001 riots aimed
at preventing reconstruction work on the 16th-century Ferhadija mosque,
RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 8 and 9 May 2001 and 29 April, 14 June, and 3
September 2002). Two additional men were sent for psychiatric
examination. PM

Paddy Ashdown, who is the international community's high representative
in Bosnia, sacked Munir Alibabic as head of the Muslim-Croat Federation
Intelligence Service (FOSS) on 21 October, dpa reported from Sarajevo.
Ashdown's office said in a statement that sensitive documents "have
found their way into the public domain and have been used for party
political purposes, on all sides" in the run-up to the 5 October
general elections. The statement added that such a practice "has
undermined the integrity, reputation, and professionalism of the
service, and therefore its ability to perform its duties. Alibabic, as
the head of FOSS, must take ultimate responsibility for this." The
statement nonetheless added that Alibabic "has served his country well
in working closely with other international counterterrorist agencies
and with the [war crimes tribunal in The Hague] and in the fight
against organized crime and corruption." Alibabic frequently spoke out
against the politicization of the intelligence service (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 16 August and 9 September 2002). PM

Ashdown also issued a series of decrees in Sarajevo on 21 October aimed
at improving the business climate but also at strengthening his own
powers following the victory of nationalist parties in the recent
general elections, RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service
reported. His approval will now be required for the appointment of
joint ministers dealing with refugees as well as with the treasury and
foreign trade and economic relations. He will also have to approve the
ministers in charge of finance in each of the two entities and
education ministers in the two entities and all cantons. Furthermore,
Ashdown issued decrees on the formation of governments in keeping with
recent constitutional changes. In the Muslim-Croat federation, there
will be one prime minister and two deputy prime ministers as well as 16
ministers. There will be eight Muslims, five Croats, and three Serbs in
the cabinet. Ashdown abolished the position of deputy minister in both
entities and in the cantonal governments. PM

Speaking in Podgorica on the day after his victory in the 20 October
parliamentary elections, President Milo Djukanovic reaffirmed his hope
that Montenegro will eventually become independent, AP reported (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 2002). "My negotiating position is
stronger today than it was yesterday," he said, apparently referring to
attempts by the EU to influence upcoming talks between Belgrade and
Podgorica on a joint Constitutional Charter. "Any attempt to try impose
a solution against the will of Montenegro's people...is
unacceptable.... I have a clear mandate from the people of
Montenegro...to demand respect for Montenegro's statehood," Djukanovic
added. The EU is seeking to keep Serbia and Montenegro together in a
joint state, which is even less popular in Serbia than it is in
Montenegro, according to many polls. As part of a deal reached under
pressure from EU envoy Javier Solana in March, Montenegro agreed to a
loose confederation but reserves the right to hold a referendum on
independence after three years. The derisive nickname for the new state
in Montenegro is "Solania." PM

The results of the 20 October parliamentary elections show that the
pro-Belgrade and pro-independence forces generally held on to their
traditional strongholds, "Vesti" reported on 22 October. The
pro-Belgrade coalition won in the Pljevlja, Pluzine, Zabljak, Savnik,
Mojkovac, Kolasin, Andrijevica, and Herceg Novi districts. The
coalition led by Djukanovic took the Bijelo Polje, Berane, Rozaje,
Plav, Podgorica, Danilovgrad, Cetinje, Niksic, Tivat, Budva, and Bar
districts. An ethnic Albanian coalition won in Ulcinj. Djukanovic's
coalition won a majority in local elections in Podgorica and took first
place but not a majority in Tivat. PM

Leading ethnic Albanian politician Fuad Nimani told Deutsche Welle's
Albanian Service on 21 October that he is disappointed by the low
turnout of ethnic Albanian voters. He noted that the Albanian parties
are small and unable to offer their voters anything real incentive to
vote for them. Nimani nonetheless urged those parties to pay more
attention to the voters. Some ethnic Albanian politicians prefer to
work in parties without an ethnic basis. PM

EU foreign ministers agreed in Luxembourg on 21 October to call on the
European Commission to start talks with Albania regarding a
stabilization and association agreement, Reuters reported. Chris
Patten, who is the EU's commissioner for foreign affairs and
responsible for countries not considered to be applicants for EU
membership, said: "We hope this will contribute to development and
reforms in Albania.... We will be looking at the Albanians...to make
clear without any doubt that the reform process that was interrupted
earlier this year has been resumed effectively." He stressed that the
EU expects Albania to display a clear commitment to reform, adding that
the proposed agreement "is not something which can be accomplished
through a series of political fixes." In Tirana, Prime Minister Fatos
Nano said: "This is only the start of...fundamental transformations and
long-term reforms in all spheres," AP reported. PM

The cabinet led by Branko Crvenkovski includes seven ministers from the
Social Democratic Union (SDSM), three from the Liberal Democrats (LDP),
and four from the ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration
(BDI), "Utrinski vesnik" reported on 21 October. In addition, there
will be three ministers without portfolio. Crvenkovski's proposal
envisions the SDSM's taking over the power ministries -- the Defense,
Interior, and Foreign ministries. The BDI will be in charge of the
Justice, Transport and Communications, Education, and Health
ministries. Liberal Democrats will head the Finance, Agriculture, and
Labor and Social Affairs ministries (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 and 21
October 2002). UB

The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) on 21 October expelled Fanel
Pavalache from the party after Pavalache, an adviser to the
government's Secretary-General's Office was arrested on 19 October on
charges of abuse of office, Romanian media reported (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 21 October 2001). PSD Secretary-General Cosmin Gusa said the
party "does not need such people," adding that Premier Adrian Nastase
has asked government members to carefully investigate all staff members
who could take advantage of their position. The same day, Nastase said
Pavalache's arrest could have "extremely positive" implications and has
revealed the need for a National Anticorruption Prosecutor's Office.
ZsM

The 19 October meeting of the National Liberal Party's (PNL) National
Representatives Delegation set up 25 specialist commissions aimed at
monitoring the government's activity and drafting the party's political
and election strategies, Mediafax reported. The meeting elected former
PNL Chairman Mircea Ionescu Quintus as honorary chairman. Deputy
Chairman Paul Pacuraru told a press conference that prior to the 2004
local elections the party will sign a cooperation agreement with the
Democratic Party. Also on 19 October, the PNL's permanent delegation
adopted a resolution criticizing the government's proposed 2003 budget.
PNL Chairman Theodor Stolojan said the proposed budget, in effect,
promotes "the waste of public money and corruption in Romania" and
"maintains an underground economy at high levels." Government spokesman
Claudiu Lucaci dismissed Stolojan's charges On 20 October, according to
Mediafax. ZsM

[60] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR PATCHING UP ROMANIAN-MOLDOVAN
RELATIONS

Meeting in Beirut on 20 October with his Moldovan counterpart Vladimir
Voronin, Romanian President Ion Iliescu expressed his surprise over the
negative attitude some Moldovan officials have recently shown toward
Romania, Mediafax reported. The two countries have been engaged in a
dispute over the certification of Romanian universities in Moldova and
scholarships for Moldovan students to attend Romanian universities,
among other things (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 July 2002). Presidential
spokeswoman Corina Cretu said Iliescu believes that this situation
should be resolved through normal bilateral negotiations. The two
agreed to set up a working group composed of presidential
representatives that would analyze the current situation and propose
solutions to problematical bilateral issues. Iliescu, who is heading
the Romanian delegation participating in a meeting of French-speaking
countries' leaders, also met on 20 October with French President
Jacques Chirac and discussed Iliescu's planned visit to France next
spring. ZsM

In Chisinau on 18 October, the parliament ratified a loan-restructuring
deal signed with foreign creditors extending the repayment of debts
owed on Eurobonds by seven years, an RFE/RL correspondent in Chisinau
reported. Moldova thus succeeded in restructuring $40 million of its
foreign debt that was due this summer and avoided default. Moldova
still must deal with a some $120 million in foreign-debt payments due
this year, which is equal to approximately half of the country's budget
revenues. ZsM

Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicolae Dudau said on 21 October after
meeting with Norbert Jousten, the head of the European Commission's
delegation to Moldova, that his country expects a "qualitative
advancement" in relations with the European Union, Flux reported. Dudau
added that Moldovan authorities are "aware of the current difficulties
[in the country] but want to resolve them" with the help of the EU.
Dudau said European Commission Chairman Romano Prodi's recent statement
that EU expansion will stop at the borders of Russia, Ukraine, and
Moldova (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 October 2002) does not reflect the
essence of bilateral relations. Jousten said those three countries
could become EU members in the future and invited Moldova to make use
of the European Commission's willingness to strengthen bilateral
relations. ZsM

Meeting with Russian Duma Speaker Gennadii Seleznev in Chisinau on 21
October, Moldovan parliamentary Chairwoman Eugenia Ostapciuc said that,
as long as Moldovan authorities do not control the breakaway
Transdniester region, opening a Russian Consulate in Tiraspol is out of
the question, Flux reported. Parliament Deputy Chairman Vadim Misin
added that when consulates are established "the host country should
guarantee the [consulate's] security" but that Moldovan authorities
cannot guarantee that to Russia at present. The Russian Duma recently
adopted a resolution that provides for the opening of a consulate in
Tiraspol. Upon his arrival in Chisinau on 20 October, Seleznev said he
is confident the two foreign ministries will be able to reach an
agreement on the consulate issue. ZsM

Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) candidate George Tabunshik took 51
percent of the vote in the second round of the Gagauz-Yeri
gubernatorial elections on 20 October, an RFE/RL correspondent in
Chisinau reported the next day. Ciadir-Lunga incumbent Mayor Mihail
Formuzal finished second with 47 percent. The first round of elections
on 6 October was declared invalid due to low voter turnout. Tabunshik
was governor of Gagauz-Yeri from 1995-99. Local analysts speculated
that the gubernatorial elections revealed a possible drop in support
for the PCM, as during the parliamentary elections last year in which
the PCM took more than 80 percent of the vote in the region. ZsM

In Sofia on 21 October, Conservative Opposition Union of Democratic
Forces (SDS) Chairwoman Nadezhda Mihailova told a joint forum of the
Democracy Foundation and the Germany-based Konrad Adenauer Foundation
that her party is demanding constitutional reform, BTA reported.
According to Mihailova, the SDS will soon initiate a parliamentary
debate on its proposed constitutional amendments aimed at strengthening
state institutions and bringing Bulgarian legislation into line with
the EU's legal framework. She added that the SDS will also ask the
Constitutional Court to define the possible scope of constitutional
reform. Justice Minister Anton Stankov of the ruling National Movement
Simeon II said at the forum that he fully supports the SDS's proposed
reforms of the legal system. President Georgi Parvanov said on 18
October that the constitution, election legislation, and laws on local
self-government should be amended prior to local elections in 2003. UB

[66] FORMER BULGARIAN PRESIDENT ACCUSES SOCIALISTS OF ORDERING MURDER
OF FORMER PREMIER

Former President Zhelyu Zhelev said on 21 October that members of the
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) ordered the 1996 murder of former Prime
Minister Andrey Lukanov, bnn news agency reported. Zhelev made the
accusation to reporters following his testimony as a witness in the
closed trial of two Ukrainians and three Bulgarians charged with
carrying out Lukanov's murder. Lukanov, who was prime minister between
February and December 1990, was shot dead in Sofia on 2 October 1996.
"People from the circle around former Socialist Prime Minister Zhan
Videnov ordered Lukanov's assassination," Zhelev said. Lukanov
reportedly came into conflict with the Orion business group that
allegedly had close ties to Videnov, spurring widespread speculation
that Videnov might have had a role in Lukanov's death. UB

Hundreds of Roma gathered in the northern Bulgarian town of Lom on 21
October to protest the local electricity provider's decision to cut
electricity supplies to their neighborhood because of unpaid bills, bnn
news agency reported. The neighborhood is home to approximately 3,000
Romany families and owes some $120,000 to the company. Similar protests
took place earlier this year in Plovdiv (see "End Note," "RFE/RL
Newsline," 25 February 2002 and "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 March 2002). UB

Within hours of the 18 October assassination of Magadan Oblast Governor
Valentin Tsvetkov, several competing theories as to the motive had
already emerged. The first, suggested by the Russian government, was
that the killing was politically motivated and connected to Tsvetkov's
attempts to regulate Magadan's lucrative mining, fisheries, and alcohol
industries. Others -- most notably State Duma Deputy Vladimir Butkeev
(Russian Regions), a challenger in Magadan's 2000 gubernatorial
elections -- argued that the murder resulted from a clash over
Tsvetkov's numerous business interests. Cryptically, Yabloko head
Grigorii Yavlinskii suggested that anyone outside the victim's
immediate family could potentially be a suspect.

To suggest that activities in Magadan's political and business spheres
can be easily separated, however, fails to recognize their deep
interconnections. Tsvetkov -- who rose during the Soviet period to
become the manager of one of the oblast's largest gold mines -- and his
family and close associates were ideally positioned to gain control of
the mine through one of post-Soviet Russia's tainted privatization
schemes in the early 1990s. Once he dominated a large share of the
region's gold-extraction industry -- which was the only sector of the
oblast's economy to survive the post-Soviet collapse -- Tsvetkov was in
turn ideally positioned to pursue his political ambitions.

Running on populist rhetoric, Tsvetkov won Magadan's first free
elections in 1996. Despite his narrow margin of victory, Tsvetkov's
achievement was considerable because the federal center and the
region's political and academic elites backed incumbent Governor Viktor
Mikhailov. Tsvetkov, however, countered the opposition through a simple
but effective campaign strategy: He asked the electorate why, given the
region's vast natural-resource wealth, they were among the poorest
people in the Russian Federation. Magadan is one of Russia's most
marginalized regions with unemployment, alcoholism, suicide, and
divorce rates among the highest in the country. Furthermore, due to the
region's remoteness and extreme climate, food prices are up to three
times the national average, putting even the most basic of goods out of
reach of many citizens. In short, in 1996 the region was on the verge
of social collapse, so a candidate implying that the region's wealth
would be redistributed was sure to find support.

Upon gaining office, Tsvetkov moved quickly to marginalize his
opponents. For example, Magadan State University, which supported
Mikhailov, soon found itself starved of funding, and Tsvetkov's
business associates quickly filled key administrative posts. Because
the region is sparsely populated and its administration apparatus is
one of the oblast's largest employers, this process was relatively
easy. Furthermore, in May 1999 Magadan was granted the status of a free
economic zone, which made political control of the region's enterprises
even easier as new layers of regulation were introduced. Returning to
his campaign strategy, Tsvetkov designated the region "our home" -- and
argued that the region's wealth should benefit its people. Because the
local population felt so cut off from the rest of the country, this
rhetoric resonated strongly.

However, it remains highly debatable whether any of the changes ushered
in under the guise of "our home" actually benefited the population.
Living standards remain painfully low to this day, and economic growth
has proven difficult to achieve. Although the mining sector has been
able to meet federally set production figures, the oblast's mines are
becoming increasingly inefficient, and investment is desperately needed
as the most easily extracted gold reserves are depleted.

For a time, it seemed this investment would come, in part, from a
Canadian company called Pan American Silver, which paid $35 million in
January 1998 for a license to mine in the region. However, it
transpired that the license did not include the mines' infrastructure,
although the company was assured of success in a closed auction for it.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, though, it later that year lost the auction by
$1 to a Moscow-based firm. This meant the company was unable to begin
mining before the date, September 2001, required by the license. Thus,
Pan American Silver has effectively lost its investment. The details of
this are not essential here, but two clear outcomes do seem evident.
First, the affair curtailed any interest in the region on the part of
foreign investors; and second, it paradoxically cemented Tsvetkov's
reputation as a defender of Magadan against outsiders trying to exploit
its resources.

Tsvetkov's re-election in November 2000 was -- for all intents and
purposes -- uncontested, and he was returned to power with over 62
percent of the vote. What opposition there was argued that there needs
to be a separation of political and business interests in the region,
with one candidate describing the incumbent elite as "feudal lords."
While only 42 percent of the electorate showed up to vote, suggesting
fairly strong apathy, the winning margin was surprising given that
living standards in the region had hardly budged during Tsvetkov's
first term.

However, given the region's extremely narrow political base and the
control Tsvetkov wielded over it, it is understandable why a credible
challenger failed to emerge. Several potential candidates privately
admitted that the risks inherent in challenging the entrenched
incumbent elite made it inadvisable to launch a campaign. Furthermore,
a common phrase heard among voters during this time was "better the
devil you know...." Although living standards were not improving,
people worried that if an "outsider" came in, the situation could get
worse. This shows how deeply rooted the notion of "our home" has become
among the people of Magadan.

Following his re-election, Tsvetkov presided over reforms that were
mainly aimed at increasing state control of the fisheries and
gold-mining sectors and the region's port. Contracts were signed with
the English company Enothera Ltd. to further the development of
Magadan's oil industry. Any of these actions could potentially have
created new enemies for Tsvetkov. Considering the above, it is clear
Tsvetkov's death will create a considerable power vacuum in the region,
particularly as there is no obvious successor.

With the federal government looking to rein in the regions, it would
not be surprising if an outsider is placed in power in Magadan, one
with much closer and more direct ties to the Kremlin than Tsvetkov
enjoyed. Another open question is whether Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
will be re-incorporated into Magadan's sphere of influence. Chukotka
Governor Roman Abramovich, an oligarch who is reportedly close to
President Vladimir Putin and who was named to the Presidium of the
State Council last month, has indicated he will step down as governor
after just one term in office, and Tsvetkov's murder would seem to make
a merger more likely.

The oblast's population would likely not oppose increased central
control of the region, despite the lingering allure of the "our home"
motif. It should not be difficult for a new administration to convince
the public that improving living standards depends on increased
investment in the crucial mining and fisheries sectors. Given the
present context, it might well be that only some form of informal
"central administration" for the oblast can prevent Tsvetkov's murder
from signaling the beginning of a new wave of regional crime and
corruption.