4 Introduction The Wadden Sea is a unique natural intertidal ecosystem of global importance, stretching from Den Helder in The Netherlands, past the rivers and estuaries in Germany to Esbjerg in Denmark. The Wadden Sea region not only harbours a suite of distinctive plants and animals, but is also home to humans, from tourists to people living and working in the area. Its Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) was acknowledged by UNESCO, resulting in the inscription of the Dutch- German Wadden Sea on the World Heritage List in. Extension with the Danish part is anticipated for. The World Heritage status underlines that the entire Wadden Sea is a single ecological entity which must be managed in a harmonised way, protecting its completeness and intactness. The inscription on the World Heritage List also offers new opportunities for regional sustainable development whilst safeguarding its OUV for the benefits of present and future generations. Long-term monitoring efforts are essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies to achieve these goals. Information on the status and trends of well-chosen ecological, socio-economic and cultural parameters of the Wadden Sea region enables the identification of the progress made as the result of these actions compared to natural changes. The Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Programme (TMAP) and other long-term monitoring programmes such as national meteo rological observations and demographic surveys, provide us with this opportunity. This booklet visualizes a selection of recent monitoring results of the entire trilateral Wadden Sea to illustrate that continued, harmonised and effective trilateral monitoring and assessment programmes, based on sound scientific evidence, are necessary to expand our knowledge on the on-going and ever-changing interactions between ecological and socio-economic drivers within this region. Present and future information and insights from monitoring are not only essential for the protection of natural values and livelihoods of the Wadden Sea, but also provide lessons of wider scientific importance for wetlands of international value and for coastal management. Katja Philippart Wadden Sea Long-Term Ecosystem Research Jouke van Dijk Waddenacademie KNAW Jens Enemark Common Wadden Sea Secretariat Such programmes revealed, for example, that winters are getting milder, that during storm surges water levels may reach up to almost five meters above mean sea level, that the sheltered basins in the southern Wadden Sea are the hotspots for mussel beds and that the trend in the number of oystercatchers is very different from that of curlews. At the same time, monitoring shows that the change in numbers of inhabitants in Wadden Sea municipalities bordering the Wadden Sea greatly varies between regions, and that labour demand in the Wadden Sea area is lagging behind compared to the rest of Denmark, Germany and The Netherlands. Introduction Introduction

5 Science-Policy Matrix At the trilateral Wadden Sea Conference (Sylt, Germany) the governments of Denmark, Germany and The Netherlands agreed that a trilateral research agenda should be developed. At its meeting in March, the Wadden Sea Board has requested the Waddenacademie to present an overview of the most pressing policy issues in relation to the availability of relevant information. Following this request, the Waddenacademie and the Common Wadden Sea Secretariat developed a so-called science-policy matrix, in which policy relevance and knowledge availability have been integrated. After testing the relevance and usability of the matrix by experts, including the Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Group and the trilateral Task Group Management, the structure and entries of the matrix were further refined during a trilateral workshop. The matrix is now ready to be used as a starting point for discussions between policy makers and the scientific community on prioritising trilateral policy-relevant research. GEO- SCIENCES Subsurface & Geofluids Long-Term Geomorphology Short-Term Morphodynamics Marine Mammals Birds Fish Salt Marshes Tourism Coastal Protection Activities Fishing & Aquaculture Agriculture Mining Energy Generation Ports & Shipping Population Development Alien Species Pollution Eutrophication Climate Change Sea Level Rise Governance & Government Based on the concept presented by Fergus Molloy of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (Australia) during the th International Scientific Wadden Sea Symposium, November, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands. ECOLOGY Beaches & Dunes Tidal Area: Intertidal Habitats Tidal Area: Subtidal Habitats Offshore Area Estuaries High Management has a high level of concern for the value due to its current degraded condition and/or the high level of single or cumulative pressures affecting it. Employment Income Degree of concern to management Adequacy of information NB. Information includes data availability on developments, as well as understanding the causes of changes observed. Moderate Low Good Moderate Low Management has a moderate level of concern for the value due to its current condition and/or the moderate level of single or cumulative pressures affecting it. Management has a low level of concern for the value due to its current good condition and/or the low level of single or cumulative pressures affecting it. The good level of information available directly supports management decisions and is currently sufficient to allow progress on the particular issue/interaction. However, further information to support ongoing adaptive management may still be required. The moderate level of information gives a reasonable basis for management decisions, but decisions regarding some aspects of the issue/interaction may be hampered by current knowledge gaps. The low amount or adequacy of information is a hindrance to management. Decisions are pending the availability of improved scientific understanding of the issue/interaction. ECONOMY & SOCIETY CULTURAL HERITAGE CLIMATE & WATER Demographic Structure Liveability Livelihood & Identity Historical Landscape Tangible Heritage Intangible Heritage Use & Management Safety Water Quality Freshwater Availability As defined in: European landscape convention ; Convention concerning the protection of the world cultural and natural heritage; Convention for the safeguarding of intangible cultural heritage. Science-Policy Matrix Science-Policy Matrix

12 Employment In the Wadden Sea region, the increase in the number of jobs is relatively slow Employment Employment

13 Employment Whilst many inhabitants of the Wadden Sea region used to earn their income within the fisheries and agriculture sector, more and more people in this area are now employed in the service sector associated with tourism. On the mainland coast and especially in the harbour cities of the Wadden Sea, employment in the industrial sector, such as the automobile industry, can also be substantial. Employment is highest on Sylt due to the large net flow of workers to this municipality from neighbouring areas, while Emden also ranks high. In general, however, employment in the German Wadden Sea area is currently lower than that in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. Data analysis shows that in the past decade, the number of jobs in the Wadden Sea region has grown at a much slower rate than their respective national averages, implying that labour demand in the Wadden Sea area is lagging behind with respect to the rest of Denmark, Germany and The Netherlands. Sijtsma FJ, Broersma L, Daams MN, Mehnen N, Oostra M, Sietses A,. A socio-economic sketch of the international Wadden area. Data analysis was performed within the framework of Wadden Sea Long-Term Ecosystem Research (WaLTER). Legend Employment in municipalities (NL, DE) and parishes (DK) expressed as the number of jobs as a percentage of the potential labour force (all inhabitants within the - age group) Employment (E) in E % E < % E < % E < % E < % No data Sources map data Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Economic Geography, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Stichting Landelijk Informatiesysteem Arbeidsplaatsen (LISA), Enschede, The Netherlands Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, Germany De Samvirkende Købmænd (DSK), Hellerup, Denmark Statistical agencies of Niedersachsen & Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Kadaster / Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, N Employment Kilometers Employment

14 Scenery Wonderful nature Scenery Scenery

15 Scenery Millions of visitors come to the Wadden Sea area every year. They experience its environmental qualities such as the purity and immensity of the natural surroundings and they often feel strongly connected to nature in this setting. The islands are generally considered very appealing throughout the trilateral area. As one respondent in a survey to examine the incentives of tourists for visiting the Wadden Sea region said Pureness, peacefulness, wonderful nature. Actually: fantastic!. With regard to the mainland, the scenery of the coastline of Niedersachsen is clearly much more appreciated than that of the Netherlands and Denmark. This could be due to the long history of seaside resorts on the East Frisian coast in contrast to the other areas in the Wadden Sea region where such activities were only started in the th century. Today, small villages and harbour towns throughout the German Wadden Sea area still attract a lot of tourists, who deeply value the characteristic landscapes. Legend Places which people regarded most attractive, valuable and significant in within municipalities (NL, DE) and parishes (DK) of the Wadden Sea as derived from the so-called Hot spotmonitor Favoured location Sources map data WaLTER pilot monitoring survey using the Hotspotmonitor (hotspotmonitor.eu) performed by the Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Economic Geography and De Ontwikkelfabriek BV of the University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Sijtsma FJ, Daams MN, Farjon H, Buijs AE,. Deep feelings around a shallow coast. A spatial analysis of tourism jobs and the attractivity of nature in the Dutch Wadden area. Ocean & Coastal Management, -. Sijtsma FJ, Broersma L, Daams MN, Mehnen N, Oostra M, Sietses A,. A socio-economic sketch of the international Wadden area. Within the WaLTER project, socio-economic scientists initiated a trilateral survey with the so-called Hotspotmonitor. Over respondents throughout the three countries were requested to mark on a map which natural areas they find highly appealing, valuable or important on a national scale ( N Kilometers Scenery Scenery

16 Oystercatchers Oystercatchers as telltales, but what is the tale that they are telling us? Oystercatchers Oystercatchers

17 Oystercatchers Since, breeding oystercatchers have been in decline in nearly all parts of the Wadden Sea region. This decline has accelerated since, with numbers dropping on average by % each year. Poor breeding success is considered one of the main reasons for this decline. In The Netherlands, the increased frequency of flooding appears to have caused many nests to fail. If this is indeed the case, it raises important questions regarding how current management practices of natural and manmade salt marshes may have contributed to the observed declines. At many sites along the mainland throughout the Wadden Sea region, oystercatchers also suffered from increased predation. Furthermore, during winter these birds may have experienced food shortages and started their breeding season in poor condition resulting in low breeding success. The different rates of this downward trend in the different areas suggest that the strength and nature of these causes are not constant across the entire Wadden Sea area, and that various factors are at play. Legend Distribution of breeding oyster catchers (Haematopus ostralegus) throughout the Wadden Sea in Numbers of oystercatchers (O) in O < O < O < O < O < Joint Monitoring Group of Breeding Birds,. CWSS Workshop Report Breeding Birds in Trouble, Wilhelmshaven, April. van Roomen M, Laursen K, van Turnhout C, van Winden E, Blew J, Eskildsen K, Günther K, Hälterlein B, Kleefstra R, Potel P, Schrader S, Luerssen G, Ens BJ,. Signals from the Wadden Sea: Population declines dominate among waterbirds depending on intertidal mudflats. Ocean & Coastal Management, -. Sources map and trend data Joint Monitoring Group of Breeding Birds (JMBB), Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Programme (TMAP), Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS), Wilhelmshaven, Germany Trends in number of breeding pairs of oystercatchers in census areas in different sections of the Wadden Sea from to, relative to the situation in Denmark Niedersachsen/Hamburg Population index ( = ) Population index ( = ) Schleswig-Holstein The Netherlands Population index ( = ) Population index ( = ) N Kilometers Oystercatchers Oystercatchers

18 Demography Population decline is often followed by impoverishment Demography Demography

19 Demography Today, many coastal communities around the world face population declines, often followed by impoverished living conditions. Within the trilateral Wadden Sea area, the population size of approximately half of the coastal municipalities is slightly increasing,, in particular on the isles and in the western part. Nevertheless, during the last ten years the number of people living near the coast has declined in many of the Wadden Sea muni cipalities, predominantly in Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark, for example at the German isle of Gröde. This general declining trend is expected to continue in many parts of the Wadden Sea area. For instance, the number of inhabitants in the north-eastern section of the Dutch Wadden Sea coastal region is expected to have declined by % by. Local initiatives are striving to counteract the decline and are aiming at attracting new inhabitants. Sijtsma FJ, Broersma L, Daams MN, Mehnen N, Oostra M, Sietses A,. A socio-economic sketch of the international Wadden area. Data analysis was performed within the framework of Wadden Sea Long-Term Ecosystem Research (WaLTER). Maximum population increase of +,% occurred at Danish parish of Mosevrå (as outlier excluded from the map). Maximum population decrease of -.% occurred at German isle of Gröde (as outlier excluded from the map). Legend Average annual change in populations of municipalities (NL, DE) and parishes (DK) from to Population change (P) from to +. P < +.% +. P < +.% -. P < +.% -. P < -.% -. P < -.% -. P < -.% Sources map data Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Economic Geography, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS), Den Haag, The Netherlands Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, Germany De Samvirkende Købmænd (DSK), Hellerup, Denmark Statistical agencies of Niedersachsen & Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Kadaster / Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, N Demography Kilometers Demography

21 Eurasian curlews Eurasian curlews are widespread inhabitants of the Wadden Sea region during the non-breeding season. They feed on the intertidal flats at low tide and during high tide also utilize inland roosts in large numbers. Since the late s, curlew numbers during winter were more or less constant for most of the Wadden Sea. Only at the north-eastern and south-western fringes, these birds appear to have increased over the years. The increase of curlews at the northern edge of the Wadden Sea is generally considered to be the result of a gradual increase in hunting restrictions and a final hunting ban in - in Denmark. The increase in curlews at the westernmost part of the Wadden Sea is in line with observations throughout north-western Europe of bird distributions shifting in a north-easterly direction, e.g. birds moving from the UK to the Wadden Sea. Such a geographical redistribution might be due to birds responding to milder winters by shifting to new areas with environmental conditions which were previously too severe but they are now able to tolerate. Joint Monitoring Group of Migratory Birds (JMMB),. Trends of migratory and wintering waterbirds in the Wadden Sea /- /. Wadden Sea Ecosystem, pp. Laursen K,. Curlews in the Wadden Sea. Effects of shooting protection in Denmark. In: Blew J, Südbeck P (Eds), Wadden Sea Ecosystem, -. Maclean IMD, Austin GE, Rehfisch MM, Blew J, Crowe O, Delany S, Devos K, Deceuninck B, Günther K, Laursen K, van Roomen M, Wahl J,. Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter. Global Change Biology, -. Legend Average numbers and trends in numbers of Eurasian curlews (Numenius arquata) during winter (Dec- Feb) from / to / Decreasing Stable Increasing Mean numbers of curlews (C) Dec-Feb / - / C < C < C < C < C < Sources map data Joint Monitoring Group of Migratory Birds (JMMB), Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Programme (TMAP), Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS), Wilhelmshaven, Germany N Kilometers Eurasian curlews Eurasian curlews

22 Red knots Small shorebirds demonstrate that the Wadden Sea is one large entity Red knots Red knots

23 Red knots Since the distribution of shorebirds searching for their prey is highly dynamic in time and space, monitoring of bird movements over vast areas has so far been a major challenge,. Satellite tracking appears to be the way forward, but this approach was so far only feasible for relatively large birds which could easily carry the additional weight of the tags. Innovative lightweight tags, are now yielding the first maps on the movements of relatively small shorebirds. On October, ten tag-carrying red knots were released on Texel. In their search for prey (in particular the small bivalve Macoma balthica) and safe foraging areas, most birds started to move throughout the international Wadden Sea region whilst one individual flew to the Wash in England. Interestingly, the young birds moved furthest away from the release point, possibly because they still had to monitor the distribution of their food sources. Adult shorebirds, such as red knots, may perhaps rely on a mental picture of good foraging areas which they build up during the first phase of their lives. Legend Trajectories of ten red knots (Calidris canutus) within six weeks after their release on October as derived from lightweight solar-powered satellite tags Release point Trajectory of individual red knot Sources map data Research cluster on global shorebird migrations and comparative mudflat ecology, Department of Marine Ecology, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Texel, The Netherlands Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Studies (CEES), University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands TOP-grant Shorebirds in space awarded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (to T. Piersma, University of Groningen & NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, The Netherlands; in association with T.L. Tibbitts, Alaska Science Center, US Geological Survey, Anchorage, USA). Metawad awarded by the Waddenfonds (grant WF; see Ultra-light ( gram) solar-powered satellite tags developed by Microwave (Maryland, USA) and NIOZ (Texel, NL) with a predicted lifespan of - years which is comparable to that of the red knots. Chan Y-C (in preparation) Ranging and migration behaviour of red knots in the East-Asian-Australasian Flyway. PhD Thesis, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands. The Wash (UK) N Kilometers Red knots Red knots

24 Harbour seals In good shape following fast recoveries after two epidemics Harbour seals Harbour seals

25 Harbour seals Harbour seals are iconic for the Wadden Sea and, being large top predators, seen as a key species in the food web. The coordinated and simultaneous counts throughout the trilateral area enable estimating total numbers, avoiding possible biases as the result of temporary local variations. While the population was still recovering from centuries of hunting, seal epidemics resulted in a % reduction in numbers in and in. Both mass mortality events were followed by fast recoveries showing growth rates approaching the theoretical maximum of % increase per year. Though population growth seemingly is slowing down, in the total count of, seals hauling out on sandbanks was the highest since the beginning of the Wadden Sea-wide seal counts in, when there were less than animals left. Taking the animals in the water into account as well, the total Wadden Sea harbour seal population in can be estimated at,. Based on local variations in numbers from year to year, it is clear that for harbour seals the Wadden Sea is a continuum in which they move around to optimise feeding and breeding. Härkönen T, Dietz R, Reijnders P, Teilmann J, Harding K, Hall A, Brasseur S, Siebert U, Goodman SJ, Jepson PD, Dau Rasmussen T, Thompson P,. A review of the and phocine distemper virus epidemics in European harbour seals. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, -. Härkönen T, Harding KC, Heide-Jørgensen MP,. Rates of increase in age structured populations: a lesson from the European harbour seals. Canadian Journal of Zoology, -. marine-mammals Trilateral Seal Expert Group (TSEG), Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Programme (TMAP), Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS), Wilhelmshaven, Germany. Legend Numbers of adult harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) as counted in August Numbers of harbour seals (S) S < S < S < S < S < Sources map data Trilateral Seal Expert Group (TSEG), Trilateral Monitoring and Assessment Programme (TMAP), Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS), Wilhelmshaven, Germany N Kilometers Harbour seals Harbour seals

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