UFC 158 ‘St. Pierre vs. Diaz’ Preview

St. Pierre vs. Diaz

Georges St. Pierre has held the welterweight title for nearly
five years. | Cliff Welch/Icon SMI

Just in case you forgot that Georges St.
Pierre and Nick Diaz do
not like one another, an epic conference call between the UFC
158 main event combatants took place last week to serve as a
not-so-subtle reminder. Despite all of Diaz’s flakiness when it
comes to media obligations, the Stockton, Calif., native sure is
capable of dropping memorable sound bites when finally cornered,
and if he can manage to enrage the usually cordial St. Pierre, then
all the better.

There are probably more worthy title contenders than Diaz, who has
not won a fight since October 2011, but is Johny
Hendricks capable of making the welterweight king lose his
unflappable cool? Probably not, which is why this match was made,
as mixed martial arts is as much about entertainment as it is about
sport. UFC 158 features two more solid welterweight conflicts --
Hendricks vs. Carlos
Condit and Jake
Ellenberger vs. Nate
Marquardt -- but St. Pierre-Diaz gets people to spend their
money.

UFC Welterweight Championship

The Matchup: Diaz planted the seeds for this bout
back at UFC 137, where he called out the welterweight champion in
the Octagon shortly after defeating B.J. Penn in the
show’s headliner. The normally level-headed St. Pierre has not
forgotten that moment, and now, nearly a year and a half later, he
finally gets his desired meeting with Stockton, Calif.’s resident
bad boy.

Diaz has been out of action since falling to Condit in an interim
title clash at UFC 143. The Cesar
Gracie product tested positive for marijuana metabolites after
the bout, and, despite the tireless efforts of his legal team, Diaz
was dealt a one-year suspension by the Nevada Athletic Commission.
It seems strange to reward a fighter coming off a loss and a
suspension with a title shot, but the masses remain intrigued by
the Diaz-St. Pierre dynamic, so the match was made -- a nod to
entertainment over fairness. Such is the climate of the
Ultimate Fighting Championship these days.

St. Pierre showed no ill effects from reconstructive knee surgery
in his return against Condit at UFC 154, as he assaulted the
interim titlist with a steady diet of takedowns and
ground-and-pound to capture a unanimous verdict. Outside of a
Condit head kick in the third round that briefly had St. Pierre on
the defensive, “Rush” was in vintage form throughout the fight.

Diaz’s wrestling deficiencies were exposed during his first stint
with the UFC, as he struggled in losses to physical opponents such
as Diego
Sanchez and Sean Sherk. As
time progressed, Diaz developed a dangerous submission game from
his back, so much so that few Strikeforce
opponents were willing to go to the ground with him. Instead, they
elected to take their chances against his volume punching, a battle
few were capable of winning. Diaz was dominant against Penn at UFC
137, battering the Hawaiian with a whopping 178 significant strikes
in a unanimous decision triumph. The former Strikeforce king
struggled against the movement and versatile striking of Condit,
however, and was out-struck in a fight for the first time since a
loss to K.J.
Noons at an EliteXC
event in 2007.

Diaz has an uncanny ability to make opponents freeze as he
constantly moves forward while landing pitter-patter punches. He
does not fear eating a few shots thanks to a durable chin, and in
the long run, Diaz will give more than he gets if he can bait an
opponent into trading in the pocket with him. Diaz will press
forward at all costs, and if he can force St. Pierre against the
fence, he will begin to unload with devastating body punches. No
one in MMA is better at changing levels with punches while avoiding
counter strikes.

In theory, that is how Diaz will score a major upset. However, St.
Pierre is accustomed to dictating tempo in the majority of his
bouts. By transitioning seamlessly between striking and takedowns,
the
Tristar Gym representative will not allow Diaz to get into any
kind of rhythm. On the feet, “Rush” is well-versed in using feints
and angles, and he uses his jab to control range and rack up
points. The odds of Diaz being able to get St. Pierre moving
backward are slim, and if the champion does feel overwhelmed during
an exchange, he can simply drive the Californian to the mat with an
explosive double-leg takedown.

Like Condit, Diaz is no match for the sheer physical strength of
St. Pierre, who excels at holding position and landing meaningful
ground-and-pound, whether in mount or in guard. While “The Natural
Born Killer” did a decent job of staying busy on his back, he was
not able to sweep or create scrambles to get back to his feet. As
crafty as Diaz is from the bottom, rarely do GSP foes attempt
submissions against him -- the last came when he fought B.J. Penn at UFC
58 -- which is why Diaz must work diligently to get to his
feet.

The Pick: Diaz will get in his share of taunts and
posturing, but St. Pierre’s takedowns will prove to be an
irresistible force. A decision victory is the most predictable
outcome, but it is possible that a hailstorm of punches and elbows
from above bust open Diaz for a doctor’s stoppage as the
championship rounds arrive. Either way, St. Pierre gets the justice
he has been seeking.