The recent US-Iran thaw has
the potential to alter the strategic landscape in West Asia.

Firstly, the credentials of
IRAN ?

world’s
second largest gas reserves

fourth
largest oil reserves

has
more than 80 million people

a
diversified economy

Current status of IRAN ?

it
is in its deepest recession since the Islamic Revolution in 1979

no
one expects it to bounce back any time soon

recent
International Monetary Fund report forecast zero growth for the current
Iranian year and 4-5% growth for next year.

In such a context, role of India as far as
IRAN is concerned ?

India
has been recalibrating its Iran policy for some time now.

New
Delhi has signed an air services agreement with Iran enhancing the number
of flights between the two nations and allowing each other’s airlines to
operate to additional destinations.

The
two sides have also inked a memorandum of understanding that is aimed at
increasing bilateral trade to $30 billion from $15 billion.

Plans
are afoot for greater maritime cooperation, and Iran has already joined
the Indian Navy’s annual initiative, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium,
which provides a forum for the navies of the Indian Ocean littoral states
to engage with each other.

More
significantly, the two nations have decided to hold “structured and
regular consultations” on Afghanistan. Both India and Iran are unlikely to
accept an Afghanistan that serves as a springboard for the Pakistan
military’s interests.

Modiji ke aane se kya hua ?

After
years of dilly-dallying by the United Progressive Alliance government, the
Narendra Modi government decided last year to invest $85.21 million in
developing the strategically important Chabahar port in Iran, allowing
India to circumvent Pakistan and open up a route to landlocked
Afghanistan.

ok iske fayde ?

The
port, located 72km west of Pakistan’s Gwadar port, holds immense strategic
and economic significance for India.

It
is already connected to the city of Zaranj in Afghanistan’s south-western
province of Nimruz and can serve as India’s entry point to Afghanistan,
Central Asia and beyond.

New
Delhi and Tehran both view Chabahar as critical to developing connectivity
with Kabul and as a geopolitical lever vis-à-vis Pakistan. This is a
high-priority issue for the Modi government.

jaha tak NUCLEAR issue aur sanctions ki
baat hai ?

On
Iran’s nuclear aspirations too, India has been making subtle changes in
its approach.

India
has expressed disapproval of sanctions by individual countries that
restrict other countries’ investments in Iran’s energy sector.

Despite
existing sanctions, New Delhi is encouraging Indian companies to invest in
Iranian energy so that economic connections can underpin a political
realignment, not foreclose it.

But
the Indian bureaucracy has been dragging its feet for a swift
implementation of economic and trade deals with Iran.

the
CHALLENGE from CHINA ?

The
most significant disruption to this relationship has come in the form of
China, which is now Iran’s largest trading partner.

China
has invested massively in Iran, with more than 100 Chinese companies on
the ground seeking to occupy the space vacated by Western firms that had
grown skittish about international pressure on the country.

The
partnership with China benefits both sides: Iran evades global isolation
by courting China, which in turn gains access without any real competition
to Iran’s energy resources.

How
INDIA is playing a SANSKAARI role and its IMPLICATIONs ?

India
has always enforced dutifully any United Nations measures against Iran,
often to the detriment of its energy investments in the country. Yet China,
which as a member of the Security Council helps shape UN policy towards
Iran, has been able to sustain its own energy business in the country
without much trouble.

India
has been trying to strike a balance between preserving its strategic
interests and adhering to its global obligations.

Its
ability to manoeuvre in Tehran had been limited so far because of Iran’s
inability to find a workable solution with the West on its nuclear
ambitions.

As
a Shia-Sunni divide fractures West Asia and as American outreach to Iran
begins to reshape the region’s strategic environment, Indian diplomacy
will be forced to navigate these tricky waters with diplomatic finesse.

is KAHAANI se humein kya Bodh milta hai
?

The
certainties of the past with which New Delhi has lived so far are coming
to an end and a new uncertain landscape will challenge Indian foreign
policy in the coming years.

New
Delhi will have to move away from the ideological trappings of the past
where domestic political imperatives continue to constrain India’s
options.

A thaw in
US-Iran relations, heralded by the new nuclear understanding between the
two, should alleviate some of Indian concerns and will allow it to push
forth with a more purposeful regional engagement.