Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Date: November 2018–January 2019

Mostly low streamflows across Australia for November 2018 to January 2019.

Low flows observed at 75% of locations in October across Australia. High and near-median flows recorded mostly in eastern and northern coastal regions.

The ENSO outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway.

Streamflow forecast for November–January

For November 2018–January 2019, low streamflows are more likely at 128 locations, spread across most of Australia. Near-median and high flows than usual are likely at 21 and 7 locations, respectively, mainly around southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales after heavy rains in October. For this time of year, more than 62% of locations have moderate to high skill, mostly in the southern half of the country.

Forecasts have not been issued for 59 locations due to very low model skill or missing observed data. We suggest using the observed climatology for these locations.

Use the map below to zoom and pan to view the forecast locations. Zoom in to view pie chart tercile forecasts, and then click on a pie chart to go directly to the latest forecast.

Information video

Outlook video

Moderate to high skill

Low skill or missing climate data

Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data

October 2018 catchment conditions

Low streamflows were recorded at 149 locations, spread across most of Australia. High and near-median flows were recorded at 35 and 16 locations, respectively - mostly in Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory, and southwestern parts of Western Australia.

October rainfall was above average for coastal areas of New South Wales and Queensland, as well as much of Western Australia. Above-average rainfall extended into the southwest of the Northern Territory and the west of South Australia. Rainfall was below to very much below average for southeast South Australia, most of Victoria and all of Tasmania.

Below-average actual evapotranspiration (AET) occurred across large parts of southeastern Australia for October - including New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, most of eastern South Australia and southwestern parts of Queensland. Above-average AET occurred in northeast New South Wales, southeast and northern Queensland, as well as large areas in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. These areas of above-average AET mostly coincide with areas of above-average modelled lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm), resulting from above-average October rainfall.

Ocean temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean have been at positive IOD levels now for two months. As a result, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year. A positive IOD during spring increases the chance of below-average rainfall for southern and central Australia, and can reinforce the effects of a developing, or fully formed, El Niño. Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD will decay during November.

Get the latest El Niño update in our fortnightly
ENSO Wrap-Up.
Find out about likely seasonal rainfall conditions in our current Rainfall outlook.
For a range of other detailed information on Australia's climate go to
Climate Information.

7–day streamflow forecasting service

The Bureau also delivers 7-day streamflow forecasts for more than 160 sites around Australia.

Combining near real-time rainfall and streamflow observations with rainfall forecasts, we calculate how much runoff is likely, and flow of this water down the stream network. A forecast is generated for each of the next seven days. Access the 7-day streamflow forecasts.