The Senate Democrats’ Rough 2018 Cycle

These are the senators up for re-election in 2018 – in the case of many Democrats, they are the ones who got elected by riding Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election coattails.

Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)

John Barrasso (R-WY)

Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Ben Cardin (D-MD)

Tom Carper (D-DE)

Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Bob Casey (D-PA)

Bob Corker (R-TN)

Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Joe Donnelly (D-IN)

Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

Deb Fischer (R-NE)

Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Kristin Gillibrand (D-NY)

Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Dean Heller (R-NV)

Martin Heinrich (D-NM)

Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

Mazie Hirono (D-HI)

Tim Kaine (D-VA)

Angus King (I-ME)

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

Robert Menendez (D-NJ)

Chris Murphy (D-CT)

Bill Nelson (D-FL)

Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)

Jon Tester (D-MT)

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Most of these seats are generally safe for the incumbent or the incumbent party. The problem for Democrats is they will be defending more seats this cycle (23, and two independents in Maine and Vermont) than the Republicans (8). Republicans will likely have a 52-48 majority in the Senate for the next two years (pending on the outcome of the Louisiana Senate runoff election scheduled for December). If Democrats are to retake the Senate, they need a net gain of 3 seats. This is going to be very difficult because many of them represent states won by Donald Trump (red is solid Republican, purple is swing state, blue is solid Democrat):

Baldwin

Brown

Casey

Heitkamp

Manchin

McCaskill

Nelson

Stabenow

Tester

Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill and Tester are particularly vulnerable because of the states they represent, so out of self-preservation they may vote for Trump nominees and legislation to save face back home. The other states are traditionally Democratic, but given that Trump won them in 2016 and that Democrats tend to have less reliable turnout for midterm elections, they can’t take anything for granted.

On the other hand, the Democrats’ best opportunities for a pickup are in purple or purple-leaning states:

Flake

Heller

Arizona has historically been a safely Republican state, but Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton here 49-45, probably a closer margin than state Republicans would like. Nevada Democrats – led by the Harry Reid political machine – ran the table and won every race in the state. If Democrats recruit a solid candidate and the Reid machine can put together another performance like they did in 2016, Heller could be their biggest chance for a pickup opportunity.

A lot can happen in two years. The political dynamics, such as the state of the economy, will determine which party benefits. Historically, the party in the White House tends to lose congressional seats during the midterm elections. But right now, two years out, it’s looking difficult for Senate Democrats.