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Sprint Cup drivers gearing up for the Chase

July 2, 2012

Matt Kenseth is currently at the top of the Sprint Cup standings, and is pretty much a lock to make the Chase. Photo by LAT PHOTGRAPHIC

In truth, NASCAR’s qualifying system to make its 12-driver, 10-race Chase for the Championship is fairly simple: Be top-10 in points after the Sept. 8 race at Richmond, or earn a “wild card” spot by being one of the two winningest drivers outside the top 10 after Richmond.

With nine regular-season races remaining—including Saturday night’s Coke 400 in Daytona Beach—the top four in points seem locked in. Former champion Matt Kenseth (130 points above the cutoff), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (119), five-time champion Jimmie Johnson (107) and Greg Biffle (105) are so far ahead, it’s inconceivable that they won’t still be top-10 in some order after Richmond.

Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick (62 to the good), Clint Bowyer (54) and Martin Truex Jr. (53) are fine, and defending and three-time champion Tony Stewart (42) is probably OK. And while Brad Keselowski is only 34 points inside the Chase, his three wins will almost guarantee a wild-card spot if he’s not top-10 after Richmond.

Conspicuously absent from the hopefuls is Carl Edwards, last year’s Sprint Cup runner-up in a “most wins” tiebreaker with Stewart. He’s 11th-ranked, 34 points outside the top 10 and winless this year. Kyle Busch is 12th, eight points behind Edwards and 42 outside the top 10. But he’s won a race, making him the provisional leader for one of the two wild cards. Winless Paul Menard is 13th, and one-race winner Kasey Kahne is 14th, putting him position to take the second wild card.

Ryan Newman and Joey Logano also have won this year but are 15th and 16th, currently not good enough to beat Busch and Kahne for the two wild cards. Except in the case of ties, the standings outside the top 10 don’t mean anything. Logano, for example, could slip to 20th in points, but would still get a wild card into the Chase if he had two wins to the one each of Busch, Kahne and Newman.

(In the interest of full disclosure, we must admit that Autoweek picked Jeff Gordon to win his fifth championship. Alas, he’s winless and 18th in points and needs two or three wins for a wild card because there’s no way he’ll be top-10 in points after Richmond. For him, the good news is that he’s won 36 times at the next nine venues: six at Daytona Beach, three at Loudon, four at Indianapolis, five at Pocono, four at Watkins Glen, two at Michigan, five at Bristol, five at Atlanta and two at Richmond.)

If Edwards expects to make the playoff he must be top-10 in points after Richmond—with or without wins, it won’t matter—or win at least one of the next nine races. Even so, he’d still miss the Chase if Busch, Kahne, Newman or Logano passes him in wins, even if Edwards was ahead of them in points. To Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne, nothing less than winning at least two races will be enough.

“It’s time for us to get in gear,” Edwards said after a late-race pit stop for fuel sent him from third to 20th¬¬—and a costly loss of 17 points—last Saturday night in Kentucky. “I’m frustrated and Bob’s real frustrated [because] I know we can do this. We just have to stick together as a team. That’s what Bob and I talked about this week. We could divide right now or we could come together. I know we can do this, no matter what everybody else says.”

And, of course, none of “what everybody else says” gets past Edwards. “I hear it all,” he said after Kentucky. “I hear everything. I hear, ‘He is focused on the (TV) booth; he’s tore up over Tony’s deal last year; he needs a new crew chief.’ Well, none of that is true. We’re having some bad luck and some bad communication, but we can do this together. I have the best crew chief in the business and he proved it at the end of the year last year. We just need to get going.”

On-track activities at Daytona International Speedway begin on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. with Nationwide Series practice. Sprint Cup cars will practice from 4 to 5:20 p.m., then Nationwide again from 5:30 to 6:25 p.m., and Cup cars again from 6:35 to 8 p.m. Nationwide qualifying is on Friday at 2:05 p.m., Cup qualifying is at 4:10 p.m., and the 120-lap, 300-mile Nationwide race is on Friday night at 7:30. Saturday’s 160-lap, 400-mile Cup race is at 7:30 p.m.