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Re: Willy Taveras

Originally Posted by westofyou

Wait... first it was Bowden, then O'Brien and then Krivsky... now Jocketty is no longer capable of running the Reds?

I don't think the Jock has suddenly become an incompetent boob. He's just had the luxury of having a manager that could wring the most out of players, even the ones that left fans scratching their heads when first acquired.

Now....not so much.

a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

Re: Willy Taveras

Since I know you were curious, Wily Mo Pena's statistic for that particular metric is 16.12 BB per PA.

It's difficult to maintain production from year to year with that kind of walk total unless you are a total genetic freak when it comes to putting the ball in play.

I'm just commenting on how there's always something.

Willy Taveras' 2007 is a fluke because of his BABIP. However, many posters love the idea of Bradley because he can mash, and they are high off his 2008 career season. However, they fail to see that his BABIP was even higher than the 2007 Taveras metric.

But that's ok because his career line is _____. But when it is shown that Juan Rivera, who many think is a waste of time, is somewhat similar, then that doesn't matter because of his walk rate. Add in the fact that Bradley will probably require a more serious committment, then it might be a wash.

A lot of times there is one stat that can either "prove" or "disprove" a theory. Kind of gets old after a while.

Re: Willy Taveras

Originally Posted by edabbs44

A lot of times there is one stat that can either "prove" or "disprove" a theory. Kind of gets old after a while.

Or it could be that each player has a different skill set and there's a number of variables that go into evaluating a player. One specific stat for player X may tell us a lot, while the same stat for a different player tells us very little. And you still have to evaluate the entire game: hitting, base running, defense, etc meaning you still have to pull back from micro to macro to make a judgement. And that's before you even get to contracts & money.

Kookie stuff, I know.

a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

Re: Willy Taveras

That's why Juan Rivera is, and should be treated like an infectious disease.

Difference of .47 between AVG and OBP? Awesome. If Juan Rivera could take a walk, then he wouldn't be treated like an infectious disease.

Not exactly, because Rivera's skillset isn't like that of most guys with a similar difference. He doesn't swing and miss as much, while still having power. He isn't Brandon Phillips. He isn't Carlos Lee either. He is somewhere in the middle. There aren't many guys like him, but he gets lumped into a group of guys that aren't really on the same level of him.

Re: Willy Taveras

Juan Rivera's career numbers would put him on base 199 times for every 600 PAs.

Bradley would get on base 23 more times.

With slugging being technically even, it seems like they are more similar than you'd think.

Milton Bradley has equaled or bested his career OBP in each of the last three seasons -- in the last two seasons, by a substantial margin.

Juan Rivera has failed to equal or best his career OBP in 3 of the previous four seasons (admittedly, his leg injury plays a part with this).

If you're going just on the basis that both guys will play to their career averages, the debate is close. If you look at the recent history of each ballplayer, it's Bradley in a landslide. The question becomes: will Rivera, at age 30, ever replicate his .310 / .362 / .525 season from 2005, or will he settle into the player he was in 2004 and 2008 -- a sub-.320 OBP guy that is a threat to dip below the .300 mark?

Simply put, that's not a gamble I want the Reds taking for the next 2 to 3 years. That's why Rivera is a "stay far, far away" in my book.

Re: Willy Taveras

Milton Bradley has equaled or bested his career OBP in each of the last three seasons -- in the last two seasons, by a substantial margin.

MB played a combined 157 games in 2005-2006. In 2007, he had a BABIP of .388.

MB was DFA'ed from Oakland in 2007 and was then dealt to SD, where his season ended when he tore his ACL after going after an umpire.

He then went to Texas, where he played in ballpark notorious for pumping up the home team's stats. His numbers were no different. He also played the vast majority of his season as a DH.

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Juan Rivera has failed to equal or best his career OBP in 3 of the previous four seasons (admittedly, his leg injury plays a part with this).

Agreed, and agreed.

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

If you're going just on the basis that both guys will play to their career averages, the debate is close. If you look at the recent history of each ballplayer, it's Bradley in a landslide. The question becomes: will Rivera, at age 30, ever replicate his .310 / .362 / .525 season from 2005, or will he settle into the player he was in 2004 and 2008 -- a sub-.320 OBP guy that is a threat to dip below the .300 mark?

Recent history might project a landslide, if the following were true:

Cincy used a DH

Bradley were to stay healthy all season

Cincy played in Arlington

Bradley were to hit close to .400 on balls in play, again

While Rivera has some questions, so does Bradley. But for both it is difficult to look at only the recent history to project what might happen this year. And it is even more difficult to assess when you factor in likely committment you will need to make to both ballplayers.

MB will likely see a dip in production compared to 2008 where Rivera will likely see production rise over the same time period. The only question is whether the gap will close a little or a lot.

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Simply put, that's not a gamble I want the Reds taking for the next 2 to 3 years. That's why Rivera is a "stay far, far away" in my book.

If Bradley is "buy, buy, buy", as some might say, I can't see Rivera being the polar opposite.

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