Poll: Amodei to win big in Nevada

Republicans are cruising toward an easy win in Tuesday’s special House election in Nevada, according to a new poll.

The automated survey by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Republican Mark Amodei holding a healthy lead over Democrat Kate Marshall in the 2nd Congressional District, 50 percent to 37 percent. A pair of third-party candidates combine for 8 percent of the vote, and 5 percent remain undecided.

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The survey echoes most public and private polling from both parties and comes as many Democrats have all but given up on the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to spend any money on TV advertising in the GOP-friendly district, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s formidable political machine in the state hasn’t ramped up for Marshall and Amodei has benefited from about $1 million in TV and direct-mail purchased by outside GOP groups.

Those onslaughts have left Marshall with 50 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably, according to the poll, and she’s also buffeted by President Barack Obama’s dismal 33 percent approval rating in the rural district.

A PPP survey three weeks ago commissioned by the liberal website Daily Kos showed a much closer race, but those results were an outlier at the time. PPP President Dean Debnam attributed the shift in his results to Democrats no longer being as enthusiastic about Marshall and an increasingly likely Republican voter turnout.

“The Nevada race has shifted sharply away from the party over the last month,” Debnam said.

The poll also found 83 percent of Republicans planning to vote for Amodei. Republicans are already holding a big edge in early voting.

The survey of 629 likely voters, conducted between Sept. 9 and 11, had a sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.