That is what all of us want. Where is that place? You are telling us you don't think we will be able to do that here in the US. Then tell me where that place is so I can try to go there in that situation.

Amen to that, and if there is, how many thousands of people are going to have the same idea. That's why just holding up on the homestead out in the country sounds about as feasible as anything!I can see people bugging out to this majical place and get set up, and then watch the thousands of other people start moving in right behind them, what a feeling that would be!Actually that migration may keep a few more away from my place!

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nelson96

This thread started with a tactical assessment. That assessment was what to do if a raiding party showed up. Obviously there are a million variables I don't know about the situation, and a successful defense is decided by many things. Available defenders, equipment, terrain, weather conditions - lots of things that weren't included in the original post. It would be impossible, based on what was given, to give more than very general advice, which might or might not make sense anymore when all of the details of the particular engagement are taken into consideration.

My TACTICAL (not strategic, but tactical) assessment of that particular situation is that it is an untenable position, and that survival would mean escaping before the enemy arrived.

There have been a trillion and one "what if's" added to this thread, which is good thinking, but were not part of the stated scenario. People have postulated the effects of everything from neighborhood posses banding together to repel the invasion to borrowed Bradley Fighting Vechicles chasing the badguys down and sending them to a grisly demise.

None of these things were presented in the original scenario, and any of those things might affect how I analyze the defensibility of a particular place.

The original scenario and limited content was given very deliberately to see where the subject would take us and to promote my own opinion on getting out of dodge.

I think (and could be wrong) that the majority of the posts, including yours, have supported my opinion in that no matter the size or complexity of the given attack, it will be very hard to defend if you have a young family and will accept zero casualties. The 'when' to get out of dodge will be the hardest to determine. The survivable planning, preps, and execution will be the second hardest.

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nelson96

As for there being no peace anywhere if the US tanks, that's making a gross exagerration of the importance of the US in the world. It's a point of view that you don't find in most of the world. Life in most of the world will go on the way it has for generations. Only the developed world with whom we have tricky trade alliances will suffer.

I simply think that is a bit naive. . . . Of the countries that don't trade with us back and fourth, are certainly not a better place to be now or will EVER be in the future.

As for there being no peace anywhere if the US tanks, that's making a gross exagerration of the importance of the US in the world. It's a point of view that you don't find in most of the world. Life in most of the world will go on the way it has for generations. Only the developed world with whom we have tricky trade alliances will suffer.

Agree to disagree. I think the US is the big boy on the block. Even if we do not directly affect the undeveloped nations, we still offer support, if not directly, then through implicit means. And if we go away, someone will fill the void.

On topic, I do agree that it is pretty much an indefensible scenario, but not everyone will be able to bugout.

I simply think that is a bit naive. . . . Of the countries that don't trade with us back and fourth, are certainly not a better place to be now or will EVER be in the future.

well that's your opinion. I don't agree and am prepared to go elsewhere. My advice to others is to have among their various plans a plan to get out of this place. if you don't want to do that then don't do it but it is my advice none the less. I don't think anyone is really prepared without that as an option so I'm going to always advocate having that option.

well that's your opinion. I don't agree and am prepared to go elsewhere. My advice to others is to have among their various plans a plan to get out of this place. if you don't want to do that then don't do it but it is my advice none the less. I don't think anyone is really prepared without that as an option so I'm going to always advocate having that option.

Given that there are 7 pages of thoughts here you may not have seen them all, but there at least a few. . . cptd advocates for heading out on the high sea's and I advocate for one of the many places (remote wilderness) I frequent when hunting. In reality those are probably the two only likely answers, if you agree to bug out at all, but many I'm sure will have their own way of doing so.

I'm so glad for this thread, thanks for starting it, Nelson, a lot of great info here and I'm enjoying reading the conversation.I live 10 min from downtown of a large busy city, I always think of bugging-out options, too bad my husband doesn't understand the point of prepping, even after we discussed it in length, in his eyes nothing will ever happen and no examples from around the world change his mind.We have a cottage North of the city but it won't be a safe place to bug-out, that place is too popular and the cottage had gigantic glass windows, not to mention neighbours who tell on each-other..

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endurance

I'm so glad for this thread, thanks for starting it, Nelson, a lot of great info here and I'm enjoying reading the conversation.I live 10 min from downtown of a large busy city, I always think of bugging-out options, too bad my husband doesn't understand the point of prepping, even after we discussed it in length, in his eyes nothing will ever happen and no examples from around the world change his mind.We have a cottage North of the city but it won't be a safe place to bug-out, that place is too popular and the cottage had gigantic glass windows, not to mention neighbours who tell on each-other..

The cottage still might be your best option since you might be dealing with a few dozen neighbors rather than a few million. No solution is perfect.

With your northern latitude, I'd focus on keeping warm during an extended power outage. You're more vulnerable to solar storms interrupting your power grid than the middle latitudes and without power, most folks will go without heat. A winter solar storm could leave millions to freeze in the dark without a little prior planning.

You might want to look for some mainstream media, emergency services, and public utilities warnings and recommendations to bring the concern to his attention. Just simple things like a battery back up system to keep the furnace running or a generator might start to open the door for him.

Thanks for the ideas, I already have a 5 month supply of food, water, med kit and a lot of other useful supplies, also have a 5 month sanitation problem solved if we decide to bug-in, I have solar flare warning app on my phone and other emergency warnings. I'm a winter camper, so have all the supplies + -15C sleeping bags. I have 2 stoves for heat and cooking + fuel and a lot of insulation material (many yards of thick fleece) that I can sew what ever I want or just cover the floors.. I'm definitely prepping for Winter and bugging-in but I really want to solve our lack of bug-out place.

I just don't feel safe at our cottage if something happens, I'd be willing to nail the huge glass windows with wood but the neighbours... I don't know.

Thanks for the ideas, I already have a 5 month supply of food, water, med kit and a lot of other useful supplies, also have a 5 month sanitation problem solved if we decide to bug-in, I have solar flare warning app on my phone and other emergency warnings. I'm a winter camper, so have all the supplies + -15C sleeping bags. I have 2 stoves for heat and cooking + fuel and a lot of insulation material (many yards of thick fleece) that I can sew what ever I want or just cover the floors.. I'm definitely prepping for Winter and bugging-in but I really want to solve our lack of bug-out place.

I just don't feel safe at our cottage if something happens, I'd be willing to nail the huge glass windows with wood but the neighbours... I don't know.

If your name actually points to where you're living, we probably live in very close proximity to each other, perhaps minutes away. My family used to have a cottage just off a lake about an hour and a half to the north (since torn down, but I'm hoping that I'be able to rebuild there sometime within the next couple of years).

Potential Threats:

The 1979 Mississauga train derailment (just west of Toronto for any Americans reading this) resulted in the largest peacetime evactuation in N. America before Hurricane Katrina (over 200 000 people at the spur of the moment in the middle of the night). To the east of the city, the Pickering Nuclear Power Station would pose the single biggest known threat in the event of a meltdown, though thankfully the prevailing winds are generally from the west.

The city was also out of power for about two to three days (depending on where you lived) in the 2003 blackout. Given a "perfect storm" scenario, we could also have something like the 1998 Montreal Ice Storm hit here, leaving large parts of the city without power for days in the middle of the winter.

Downtown, we have a very thick concentration of glass sided condos and office towers. That would be an awful place to get stuck in during a major power outage, but probably constitutes the area most likely to suffer from a terrorist attack. Just one large conventional bomb could cause a world of hurt, and a dirty bomb would cause utter mayhem even if it was relatively benign. I would hate to imagine the evacuation plan for the downtown core!

Whether you're downtown or not, evacuating the city for whatever reason is probably the greatest challenge. In one simulated exercise about two years ago, I am told that people would have died evacuating if the scenario they were playing out happened in real life. And if you know the main routes north of the city, you'd probably recognize a couple of bottlenecks on the way to cottage country.

I'm not convinced that you should be losing much sleep over your neighbours up north, since for the most part the area might get flooded with the families of middle class professionals who own or are related to cottagers should an evacuation of the city ever happen. I wish I could say that they'd be better prepared, but I doubt that more than 10-15% of the people who own cottages would even own basic hunting guns and have difficulty imagining the people who'd initially flood the area providing the nucleus of armed gangs and looters. And while there are some depressed areas in the city to the south, the overall poverty and crime is still a fraction of what you'd find in most American cities of comparable size, so I find it difficult to imagine large numbers of violent gangsters from the city flooding the area to prey upon the ill prepared. Perhaps things would change in a worst case, long term scenario, but that wouldn't happen overnight and should afford additional time to prepare.

As for my priorities, I'd say that having decent BOBs for an unexpected evacuation of the city would be a Godsend if you ever needed it, as well as familiarizing yourself with several routes out of the city and perhaps along the highways and sideroads to the North should you want to make your way to the cottage. If you need to shelter in place, I'm pretty sure that you can figure out how to remain reasonably comfortable for quite a while even if electrical power and the weather become an issue.

Having the cottage already places you at a great advantage to over 90% of the population, and your other preps put you in the top fractions of a percent! Even the worst case scenarios I've looked at for a major solar event (frying the electrical grid of most of the US East Coast and much of southern Canada) would probably only extend northwards to somewhere between Orillia and Muskoka, so your cottage might even be spared from that kind of catastrophe. Slowly working away on making the cottage more resiliant (i.e. wood stoves, generators, solar energy, learning about what kinds of fish and game you could realistically harvest in decent numbers during an extended stay, possibilities for gardening you're not sitting on granite, etc) could probably be a fun an interesting way to enhance the property and enjoy it in the process. but I'd approach that with a spirit of enthusiasm rather than fear.

Perhaps you might want to learn some alternative ways of communicating (i.e. HAM radio) and think of ways to be able to stay apprised of things in an emergeny where more conventional communications could fail. You could work that into plans to keep in contact with closest friends and relatives and and possibly coordinate their evacuations and or mutual assistance.

Those are my first thoughts on the scenario you've portayed.

Canadian Prepper

PS. I'm currently studying disaster and emergency management and could probably dig up more info or clarify further if you feel that it would be of help.

Oh, I forgot to mention pandemics in the previous post, which is kind of embarrasing considering the SARS outbreak we had.

For the most part, between your potential BOL and sufficient supplies to shelter in place for an extended time (perhaps even work from home?), that should at least give you options from which you could develop a more detailed plan to whatever might come your way.

Great ideas, thanks Canadian Prepper Nice to have another Torontonian around.

I have some great bugging-in experience during SARS (twice!), I was lucky to always have something stashed away so was able to totally avoid grocery stores, subway..etc I also had med masks, I learned quite a bit from that experience.

The cottage is still a possibility but my husband is absolutely against prepping of any kind, it's impossible to get him onboard, so we might be bugging in depending on the situation, we'll see. Sorry for the short message, using my iPhone right now.

Great ideas, thanks Canadian Prepper Nice to have another Torontonian around.

I have some great bugging-in experience during SARS (twice!), I was lucky to always have something stashed away so was able to totally avoid grocery stores, subway..etc I also had med masks, I learned quite a bit from that experience.

The cottage is still a possibility but my husband is absolutely against prepping of any kind, it's impossible to get him onboard, so we might be bugging in depending on the situation, we'll see. Sorry for the short message, using my iPhone right now.

BTW, I'm in the Bloor West area

Yes, we are awfully close, as I'm living a bit further East, close to the park.

Though it would certainly be nice if your husband was more on board about prepping, keep in mind that notwithstanding the hazards I alluded to above, we are probably living in one of the safest parts of the world, which has never seen anything like what our relatives witnessed in Europe just several decades ago. There were just a couple of small battles with the Americans involving maybe one or two thousand soldiers back around the time Napoleon was marching on Moscow with no indications that anything like that would happen again. Even events like Hurricane Hazel in 1954 only flooded out some deep river valleys and bridges in areas that are no longer open to development, so apart from real issues of basement flooding even that's not a serious threat.

I can only speculate, but perhaps encouraging your husband into fishing and hunting, or groups of friends into those kinds of things might ease him more into the camping gear, hanging outdoors or being a bit more adventuresome around the cottage, but unless it's tied to something fun, it doesn't sound like he's going to want to prep for the sake of prepping alone.

There could be a localized emergency that could lead to an evacuation of the city, in which case the cottage would be a Godsend, but if that does happen it won't really matter that your husband was skeptical before the crisis occurs. Simply having some items ready so that you're not missing anything should you have to head north on a moments notice and having a few pre-arranged routes in case of traffic will already put you well ahead of the game. Keeping your cars full of gas might also be a good idea, as the pumps at stations tend to go down during a major power outage, and lots of gas might be wasted in traffic on account of failed traffic lights. You might want to prep the cottage with things like a good wood stove or other features that would come in handy if you had to head there in the wintertime or live out of the place with limited power, but we're really getting way ahead of ourselves worryiing about gangs following us to the north.

It might be nice to have some extra items pre-positioned at the cottage, but do bear in mind that the main problem up there is the threat of professional theives who try to break in when people aren't around, which probably largely explains why your neighbours are so nosey. Cottagers up there tend to be on the lookout for anything unusual, which can get annoying at times but for the most part makes sense. I would be more worried about thieves stealing expensive prepping equipment and supplies during regular times (though more likely during the off season when fewer people are around) than any danger neighbours might pose during an emergency, in which case good relations with them might pay off in a very big way. Id' be more focused on figuring out what you could grow around the property, getting into hobbies like fishing/ice fishing and hunting, building up a supply of firewood (ie. building up some skills and identifying local resources that would come in handy) than using it as a place to cache lots of supplies. A lot of these things can be integrated into activities with your kids and ongoing property maintenance, so it doesn't have to look like prepping all of the time.

The type of scenario envisaged in the original post largely assumed (in my mind's eye) a broader economic decline and subsequent increase in crime more than sudden chaos and violence after a disaster, so the scenario envisages lots of warning signs and allows at least some time to start moving more of your prepping supplies up to the cottage, develop closer relations with the neighbours and prepare for longer term instability. There's an overwhelming amount of research to suggest that sudden looting and violence in the wake of a disaster in North America is very rare and uusally highly exaggerated, so while we want to be ready for extremes, it's not something to get all panicked about. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt to prepare a few more things right now like getting licensed to shoot and hunt, which could come in handy for protection or to harvest game around the cottage, since the whole process of just getting all of your papers will likely inolve one or two weekends of training and a couple months for all of the licensing paperwork to get processed, but there's really no immediate or impending threat of looting or violence to worry about and it would likely take some time to develop even if the worst case scenario came to pass.

I hope that helps to put this thread into a context that makes sense for your circumstances. You're aleady better prepared and have far more options than would be available to most people in your area, so I would keep building on those advantages and suggest looking at the security aspect of things but without getting too worried about it.

I'm not really worried about anything specific happening, still have SARS in my memory and working on making us less electricity dependent.

I am planning to get a gun license and will attend a ham radio course and get a license.

I was at a kids' camp 60 km from Chernobyl when it blew up, we were evacuated and when I got home to Odessa, no one knew what happened, the government didn't tell us for 30 days, looks like the rest of the wold knew right away.. that's when I started storing food and water, have been doing this since childhood

We call it cottage but it's in a residential neighbourhood in a small town up North, the neighbours are not friendly to each-other either, if someone is digging in their backyard, planting a tree in the wrong spot, fixing the house, they call the city to complain "just in case".. I hate that area and would prefer to sell and find something better.

This coming Spring and Summer will be our first family camping trip, my hubby desperately doesn't want to go, but he's going, I plan to teach my kids little by little everything I know, I started camping in Kamchatka when I was 7, my kids are definitely ready (ages 7 and almost 5), should have done it much earlier.

I'm not really worried about anything specific happening, still have SARS in my memory and working on making us less electricity dependent.

I am planning to get a gun license and will attend a ham radio course and get a license.

I was at a kids' camp 60 km from Chernobyl when it blew up, we were evacuated and when I got home to Odessa, no one knew what happened, the government didn't tell us for 30 days, looks like the rest of the wold knew right away.. that's when I started storing food and water, have been doing this since childhood

We call it cottage but it's in a residential neighbourhood in a small town up North, the neighbours are not friendly to each-other either, if someone is digging in their backyard, planting a tree in the wrong spot, fixing the house, they call the city to complain "just in case".. I hate that area and would prefer to sell and find something better.

This coming Spring and Summer will be our first family camping trip, my hubby desperately doesn't want to go, but he's going, I plan to teach my kids little by little everything I know, I started camping in Kamchatka when I was 7, my kids are definitely ready (ages 7 and almost 5), should have done it much earlier.

Funny enough, but I recently had a prof and met another friend who were children in Belarus when the meltdown happened. Both had parents who were into chemical engineering and got word that radiation meters were showing something abnormal, ordering kids inside as a result. A fellow student actually gave a presentation on the diaster at our last class......

I realize that the past few posts haven't touched much on the issue of roving gangs, but think it's important to emphasize that the original post was speaking about a very far flung scenario, probably more to exercise our thought process about such a threat than to suggest that it was immanent or likely to happen. 90% of our preps would probably remain unchanged based upon this thread, though it might help shape how we'd adapt our plans if things got worse.

I hear you on the cottage location and can imagine a couple other areas where the neighbours would be like that!

In the meantime, best of luck on the firearms and HAM license. I'll likely be taking the latter sometime in the next couple of months. FYI, Radio World near Steeles and Hwy 400 is the best place locally to get HAM equipment, including the radios discussed in the HAM threads.

With Regards,

Frank

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nelson96

Concerning bugging out . . . I watched a documentary the other day which talked about nuclear power plants. The discusion was about how many we have concentrated in the eastern states. They talked about the fact that if their was a catastrophic event that shut down power these reactors could overheat and blow up. Apparently they are powered by outside electricity to support the coolers that sustain the temperature so they don't go boom. They said it could take less than a week for this to happen.

Concerning bugging out . . . I watched a documentary the other day which talked about nuclear power plants. The discusion was about how many we have concentrated in the eastern states. They talked about the fact that if their was a catastrophic event that shut down power these reactors could overheat and blow up. Apparently they are powered by outside electricity to support the coolers that sustain the temperature so they don't go boom. They said it could take less than a week for this to happen.

I nearly happened with Three Mile Island in 1979, which could have made all of PA virtually uninhabitable. The two main engineers handling the crisis were in complete disagreement about the status of the reactor and nearly coming to blows as President Carter's helicopter approached the facility for his visit to calm the American people. No new nuclear facilities have been approved in the US since then.

Here in Southern Ontario we tend to focus on a couple provincial faciiities (the Bruce plant on Georgian Bay, Pickering and Darlington on Lake Ontario) but the entire southern portion of our province would similarly be in big danger if the plant in Detroit melted down. With the Great Lakes to the South and West, there would be a mad dash by frightened citizens to the north on a few routes. Most people would get stuck in traffic and run out of gas before they could get far enough. Seeing the thread that this is posted in, I'm sure that people would act really oddly in such a situation.

If one plant has a meltdown in the Eastern US or Canada, I could imagine the challenge of shutting down other plants downwind before evacutating the staff from those facilities.

I posted this story elsewhere and then realized how pertinent it may be to this thread, by giving a real life example of how ordinary citizens with a few single shot scatterguns and .22s are doing their best in something approaching a WROL scenario in Mexico. From Al-Jazeera News.

Though described as vigilantes, these citizens come across as pretty level headed, if frustrated individuals who aren't in it for an ego trip.