01803cam a22002417 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245016600091260006600257490004100323500001500364520080900379530006101188538007201249538003601321700002401357700002401381710004201405830007601447856003801523c12806NBER20150802153627.0150802s2013 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBerry, Steven T.10aCorn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyondh[electronic resource]:bImplications for Harvest Volatility /cSteven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2013.1 aNBER book chapter seriesvno. c12806 aJuly 2013.3 aCorn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our most flexible model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend, which is close to the observed realization. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web.1 aRoberts, Michael J.1 aSchlenker, Wolfram.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aBook Chapter Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. c12806.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/c12806