Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Why Iran Should Go For Gold

As Iran toys with the idea of a change in currency, Forbes contributor Steve Hanke refers to the slated reforms as nothing more than "a great illusion". According to the bill passed by Hassan Rouhani's government last December, Iran's national currency would be changed from the rial to the toman. This would also require a reduction of Iran's unit of account, since one toman equals ten rials.

Hanke states this is merely another cog in the engine of Iran's economic dysfunction, a problem that has persisted since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Since then, the rial has officially lost 99.8% of its value as the country continues to struggle with high inflation. Although official figures place the annual inflation rate at 9.6%, Hanke estimates it closer to 20%.

The article clearly shows that something needs to change with Iran's economic system. Adopting a foreign currency such as the U.S. dollar or the euro would be one way to fix the currency issues, but Hanke points out the solution is politically unacceptable.

And while it might seem that there is no easy fix to Iran's economic problems, Hanke believes that the optimal solution is simple and unjustly overlooked: a return to the gold standard.

The article states that the reintroduction of gold as currency has been a talking point for some time now – going back as far as 1997, Nobelist Robert Mundell predicted that the yellow metal would return to its role in the international monetary system in the 21st century. Hanke notes that, since President Nixon abolished the gold standard in August of 1971, many have described the international monetary regime as a chaotic non-system.

Out of the various methods of implementation, Hanke sees gold-based currency boards as the most prudent choice – currency boards have been implemented by over 70 countries and have generally contributed to the fiscal discipline, price stability and growth rates in related countries.

The gold currency unit issued by this board would have to be fully backed by gold and fully convertible to gold at a fixed rate on demand, rendering it immune to manipulation. Hanke outlines a proposition that includes the creation of a Swiss-based Iranian board whose purpose is to issue coins and denominations while maintaining enough bullion to allow convertibility.

The proposed board would be unable to increase liabilities without appropriate backing by gold or foreign exchange notes the article, and it would also be independent from the financial obligations of Iran's government.

As Hanke explains, a gold-backed solution is elegant enough to be accepted by the Iranian government without appearing as a concession. Whether such a system is adopted remains to be seen, but there is little question that it would be more effective than the inconsequential reforms suggested by Hassan's government.