The first chart is a famous one from Bitcoin about "how bubbles look like". The 2nd one is from the stock market, suggesting that it will drop hard as the left one.

Because past prices predict futures ones. Because at a P/E of 14, the market is presently on a huge bubble. Because corporations didn't grow and made profits - including the ones with no debt, so current prices are artificially inflated.

It has to come down, right?

Rod

Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:

The first chart is a famous one from Bitcoin about "how bubbles look like". The 2nd one is from the stock market, suggesting that it will drop hard as the left one.

Because past prices predict futures ones. Because at a P/E of 14, the market is presently on a huge bubble. Because corporations didn't grow and made profits - including the ones with no debt, so current prices are artificially inflated.

It has to come down, right?

Rod

Also interesting how the drop off at 2008 cuts off after and doesnt show the recovery that came after the fact. The scales of the axis of the two charys I am assuming S&P 500 dont even match.

There are differing opinions in regards to investing and the economy, but I really wonder what the intent of some of the posters are in regards to this?

Living through big crashes in the past – like 1987 or 2008 or 2011 – gives perspective. You learn that over 70% of the time markets go up. That corrections are scary but normal. That bear markets last a couple of years and show up about once a decade. That it always ends. Always followed by a surge. And that people who sell into a storm are fools while those why buy are usually geniuses.

The odds are – virtually 100% – that novice investors will fold in the first crisis that hits them.

Second, gambling isn’t investing. Buying individual stocks is rolling the dice, especially if you can only afford a few of them, have little diversification and got them because some anon Internet dude told you it was a good idea. Or, worse, your BIL.

Fourth-quarter earnings season starts soon, and it should be a good one for Wall Street. If the market continues to rally, then the downdraft of late 2018 will look pretty silly.
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 8th, 2019 at 10:37 am

"Most export manufacturers in China have already moved or plan to shift some production outside the Chinese mainland, as the Sino-U.S. trade dispute adds to existing headwinds for businesses, a survey by Swiss investment bank UBS has showed.

Thirty-seven percent of the respondents said they have moved some production out of the mainland in the past year, the bank said in a report released on Friday about the poll. Another 33% of respondents said they plan to do so in the next six to 12 months."

And note that the declining sales started well before the trade war (Trump just exacerbated it). The collapse in German manufacturing activity is another worrying sign. We may get that global recession yet, and this could be a bull trap just as easily as it could be a V-shaped recovery. There are signs for both (as is often the case).

I'm not selling my gains since Dec 24th at the moment, but I also don't think that this is the moment to back up the truck.