As Voters Return Ballots, Hancock Has The Jump On Romer in Denver Mayor Runoff:
Michael Hancock and Chris Romer are in a tight fight for Mayor of Denver as the 06/07/11 runoff approaches, according to a Denver Post - KUSA 9News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Young, liberal voters focused on the city's schools propel Hancock. Older voters focused on the budget and economic redevelopment support Romer.

Democrats break 5:3 for Hancock. Independents, Moderates and Republicans split. Lower-income voters split. Hancock has a nominal advantage among white and Hispanic voters and a material advantage among more affluent and educated voters. African Americans, though comparatively few of them in Denver, vote 4:1 for Hancock.

Voters cite "economic redevelopment" as the top issue in the contest, and those focused on redevelopment back Romer 5:4. But voters cite "schools" as the second most important issue, and those focused on schools back Hancock 5:3. Hancock leads by 13 points among men and by 7 points among women. There is time, in the remaining days, for Romer to overtake, but only if there is a material, new disclosure not already baked into the campaign discourse. Romer's best shot is that young voters "stay home" and seniors "turn-out." This often happens when all votes are cast on a single "Election Day." But this runoff is conducted 100% by U.S. mail. It is unclear to what extent, in a mailed-ballot election, historical "Election Day" calculus is relevant. If Hancock loses, younger voters will have talked-the-talk to pollsters, but not walked the ballot to the mailbox, given 2 weeks to do so.

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If you were filling out your ballot for Denver Mayor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Michael Hancock? Or Chris Romer?