It's been Manchester United's title for some time now, and they could afford to lose five and draw one of their nine remaining games and still pip Manchester City, who surely need to win all of theirs if they're to have any chance of re-creating last season's excitement. Given that they're yet to play United and Spurs away that's not going to happen.

Everyone down to Everton is still mathematically in with a chance, in much the same way that it is still mathematically possible for Cyprus to transform itself into an economic superpower within the next fortnight.

Potential final day fun: Very little. United finish away to West Brom but will likely have the title secured well before then. If there is to be an even more ludicrous turnaround than last season, Norwich City will be playing the part of QPR at the Etihad this time around.

Five into four, as you may have been taught at school, simply doesn't go. United will book their place with four more points from the 27 that are available to them. It's safe to say they're in.

City,ChelseaandTottenham Hotspur are the current occupants of the remaining three spots. None of them, nor closest challengers Arsenaland Everton, are looking altogether convincing. City have a run of straightforward home games (Newcastle, Wigan, West Ham, Norwich) as well as winnable away fixtures (Swansea, Reading). This and a nine point cushion from fifth place should be more than enough.

Everton and Liverpool are still sniffing around but with one suffering the inevitable late-season slump that they traded to the devil for a good start and the other capable of losing 3-1 away to Southampton, it's reasonable to discount both.

This leaves Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea to duke it out for two remaining places. The received wisdom is that Spurs have had a far better season than both, but they trail Chelsea by a point and are only four ahead of Arsenal. Both have a game in hand over André Villas-Boas' side and while Chelsea's run-in features an alarming amount of difficult games it is they and Arsenal who have the experience in getting over the dotted line that deparates Champions League from Europa.

Swansea Cityare the first British team in the draw after their League Cup victory. If one of the Manchester clubs wins the FA Cup as expected then the winner of the Millwall v Wigan semi-final will qualify. This leaves a disappointing one place up for grabs, which will go to the fifth-placed Premier League team, although if Newcastle, Chelsea or Spurs win this year's competition and finish lower than fifth then they will also get a spot. Realistically this is only likely to apply to Newcastle and realistically they are unlikely to win the Europa League.

This means that the Europa League spot for fifth place will likely be taken up by the team that's missed out on Champions League qualification, like a horrible consolation prize. This makes Arsenal, Spurs, and Chelsea the most likely inhabitants and you could make a reasonable case for all three failing to make the top four.

Below them Everton are dropping off and Liverpool could very well pip them to sixth but that won't be enough this season. Technically, only Reading and QPR are out of the running for a Europa League spot at this stage. Really, West Brom are the only other semi-realistic candidate.

The Premier League will get an extra spot in next year's competition should they finish in the top three of the Europe-wide Fair Play league. They were fourth at the last count. That spot will be given to the team with the nicest kit. Probably.

Not really, it'll be the team with the best Fair Play record. Liverpool, Fulham and Southampton are the best-placed of teams that are unlikely to qualify for the Champions League.

Potential final day fun: Chelsea v Everton almost certainly won't be as exciting as we hope it will but it's worth mentioning again. Arsenal travel to Newcastle, which won't be a whole lot of fun. Liverpool will end the season on a good note against QPR

Likely outcome: Spurs. Or Liverpool, if Spurs implode particularly disastously and Brendan Rodgers side look up the definition of consistency and commit it to memory.

By some distance, this is where the action is for the remainder of the Premier League campaign.

The games are running out for Readingand Queens Park Rangers, both of whom are stranded seven points from safety with eight games left. Reading will need a new manager bounce and then some with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City left to play. Crucially, they've just not looked good enough for the vast majority of the season and it would be no surprise to see them finish bottom of the lot.

QPR have spent most of the season in that position but there's still that nagging suspicion they might have enough about them to get out of it. It has something to do with Harry Redknapp and plenty more to do with the insane amounts of money they've spent on their charmless team. Every game looks like a must-win for them. Lose to Fulham on Monday or Wigan the week after and they're probably goners.

Wigan are third from bottom but so used to dramatic last-ditch escape that it's almost not worth considering them to go down. They've still got to face City and Spurs at home and Arsenal away, so perhaps this is the year their luck runs out? See also: every other year before this one.

Villa and Southampton have shown signs of revival of late, and three wins each from their remaining eight games should be enough.

Sunderland have enough games against the fellow basement dwellers to save themselves, but their only striker of note Steven Fletcher is out for the rest of the season. West Ham are in dreadful form but have a game in hand over almost everyone around them. Newcastle, Norwich, and Stoke are still vaguely perilous, but each should have it in them to win the two games that will likely see them safe.