Diesel passenger car sales go on life support — just 222 sold in January

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Cheap fuel prices and the Volkswagen-Audi-maybe-others emissions flap have sales of diesel passenger cars down to almost nothing. About 200 diesel passenger cars were sold in January — less than, say, Bentley and Rolls-Royce sell in a typical month, and one-twentieth as many as were sold a year ago.

Diesel SUVs fared slightly better, about a thousand units in January 2016. The lone strong point was diesel engine light trucks (mostly pickups sold for work use), about 22,000 in January versus 26,000 a year ago. It’s all a drop in the bucket for a still robust US light vehicle market that sold 1.1 million vehicles.

Perfect storm overtook diesels

In good years and bad, diesels go farther on a tank of fuel (500 to 800 miles) and your hands smell bad after you fill up. They get better mileage than the same car with a gasoline-engine. That’s important when fuel cost $3-$4 a gallon. But now it’s down to $1.73 a gallon for regular, or $1.98 a gallon for diesel (as of the week of Feb. 22, average of all regions of the US). The best-selling 2016 Honda Civic (up 43% versus January 2015) gets 33 mpg combined, and a 300-mile trip sets you back less than $16 in gasoline costs. For a lot of people, that’s cheap enough.

The bigger hit on sales came from the diesel emissions scandal that started with Volkswagen, then expanded to corporate sibling Audi, then cast a shadow over all German automakers. They’re the ones supplying the bulk of diesel engine passengter cars to American buyers.

Volkswagen, Audi aren’t selling diesels

Last September, the Environmental Protection Agency discovered VW had a pollution-control cutout that sensed when the car was being emissions-tested, via inputs such as driven wheels moving versus un-driven wheels not moving (as on a roller) and steering wheel always straight ahead. When it didn’t sense the likely test conditions, the EPA said, VW backed off on pollution controls and cars emitted nitrogen oxide at up to 40 times the US limit. The recall affects a half-million VWs and Audis here and the ripple effects may expand to cover as many as 11 million vehicles worldwide. There is talk about whether Porsche (part of the Volkswagen group) and BMW may be affected.

The upshot is that you can’t buy a new VW or Audi diesel in the US now. A year ago in January, VW sold about 3,500 diesels, Audi another 800. That was the majority of the early 2015 diesel passenger car market: VW plus Audi. For January 2016, the highest-seller among diesel passenger cars was the BMW 3 Series with 69 reported sales. The total of all diesel passenger cars sales — all brands, all models — was 222 last month, according to WardsAuto.com. Diesel SUVs and crossovers fared a bit better, with about 1,300 January 2016 sales among Land Rover, Jeep, BMW, and GMC. The only lower numbers last month belonged to Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Martin O’Malley.

Good time to buy a diesel (if they’ll let you)

We still believe this is a great time to buy a diesel passenger car or diesel, if you can buy one. Think like baseball philospher Yogi Berra (“the place is so popular, nobody goes there anymore”) only in reverse: Diesels are so unpopular, you should go find one. Basically:

If the vehicle is for sale (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Land Rover sedans and SUVs especially), it’s not going to be in demand. Most people are put off by cars with possible emissions problems. Dealers will be anxious to dicker.

If there are problems that need fixing, the cost won’t put the automaker out of business. Only at VW does the total cost of repairs look steep relative to VW’s total worth (market cap).

If problems are worse than you expected, or if future repairs reduce fuel economy, you’ll get money back. If the car can’t be brought back into compliance, the car will be bought back.

The ability to do an entire day’s driving and still have fuel in the tank the next day is awesome. It’s true that you’ll still need bio breaks every couple of hours, but not having to refuel saves 10 minutes added on to one of the rest stops.

If demand is reduced, so too will be the price. Just remember: About a half-million sedans were sold last month. Only 222 of them were diesels. Many more are sitting on dealer lots.

Tagged In

Not to worry, the gas prices WILL go up (at least in the USA).
1. The refineries will be shutting down, to switch from winter blend to summer
blend, and to do maintenance.
2. Summer is coming, and with the prices around 1/2 of what they were, more
people will be driving.
3. There will be a “major” problem at one of the refineries, knocking it offline, and,
since the gas is blended according to the EPA for California is different than other
parts of the country, any surplus in one region can’t be shipped to where there is
a shortage.
4. Some pie-hole somewhere in the middle east will fart, and the speculators on
Wall Street, will get nervous and the prices will spike again.

It’s the way it’s been since the first (fake) oil “crisis” in the 70’s.

Decimal

How was your trip back from the future?

Ian Skinner

sadly ,he’s right.. no need to be a petrol prognosticator..

Decimal

Speculation does not equate to correctness.
Thus, you two are both wrong.

Ian Skinner

well lucky for you we have something called quantitative data, which makes his hypothesis and my agreement, statistically probable. Go back to your nerd hole ‘decimal’ your mom made you some PB&J to go with your Mtn. Dew.

Decimal

Statistically probable also does does not equate to correctness; it merely equates to probability.

Also, attempting to insult me only makes you look desperate to invalidate my comment while simultaneously cheapening any validity to your comment.

Ian Skinner

here’s a tip; it does not invalidate it either, as you seem want to do. So in your assumption that he and I are wrong, you’re just as wrong AND being a petulant hypocrite..( frankly you’re not worth much more then the basic insult I tossed out. )

Decimal

Actually, the correctness of the statement can not be validated until such a time that the statement is proven to be true or false.

For example: if I flip a coin it is probable that it will land heads-up. Saying “it will land heads-up” as a fact before I actually flip the coin is still not a correct statement because the coin has not been flipped.

Also, I never once claimed the probability of your statement to be incorrect, only the claim that your claim is correct to be incorrect.

You see how some simple logic still makes you wrong? Also see how I can completely invalidate your statements without using insults? See how that lessens anything and everything you say?

Wussupi83

What data could you possibly have that accounts for the now revealed wealth of natural gas deposits around the world. the proxy WWIII occuring, soil erosion and global climate change? Go back to your Reaganomics history book, your estranged kids renewed your library card.

Ian Skinner

he was referring to petrol, not Natural Gas.. how did you even get there from what he said. Then again how did you get to that insult either?? loopy.

golieth

There was nothing fake about the 70’s oil crisis. The shortage was they just weren’t selling us as much oil as we wanted at a certain price.

Middling

Of course, gas prices will go up. With Oil so low, the price of gas can’t get much lower. Oil is reacting the way most commodities operate- up and down. When the price is down, you try to survive. When the price is high, you re-invest the additional revenue into exploration and development.

No argument about refineries shutting down for maintenance and/or accidents causes a bump in prices. Again- Supply and Demand, just because supply is down, does not mean that Demand will also drop, hence an increase in price.

Kyle

Looks like stock prices are about as low as they’re going to get for anyone looking to make a solid investment.

Greigio76

Wouldn’t it also be a good time to buy a hybrid? Supposedly, car prices should be lower due to lower demand. Gas prices may be low and getting lower, but oil prices can rebound at any moment. It is typical to own a car for at least 8 years so we may be looking at the bottom.

biohazara

Shouldn’t the title be “American diesel passenger car sales go on life support — just 222 sold in January”

Karen

Exactly, diesel is still preferred in Europe.

ja_1410

They are only preferred in Europe. This is thanks to government taxing diesel at much lower rate than gasoline. If both fuels would be taxed identically, diesel would not be so popular.

biohazara

It’s also because of the greater fuel economy. But still, that wasn’t my point, the article is only focusing on the US, yet it makes it sound like it’s worldwide.

ja_1410

Economy is the deciding factor. In normal economy diesel fuel should cost more than gasoline and that is the situation everywhere where both fuels are taxed identically. This comes from the simple fact, that from the barrel of oil you get about 9 gallons of diesel fuel and heating oil and 18 gallons of gasoline. So what you call “greater fuel economy” will not offset the fact, that diesel car will in effect use more raw oil than gas car and the car itself is more expensive due to higher cost of diesel engines. The oil refining process will always produce both fuels from raw oil so you cannot run your fleet exclusively on gasoline or on diesel because you would be wasting other fuel. The right approach is to let market decide the split by taxing both fuels identically. In the world outside or artificial economy of Europe, the market prefers diesels for heavy transportation and gasoline for light passenger cars.

Bernd

Exactly. Well actually, it doesn’t say anywhere, so we even have to guess.
Also, there is no source cited. Please be more precise like you always are, ExtremeTech.

Scott

I think several of the diesel passenger cars are great cars. But I wouldn’t buy one right now – not because of this scandal directly, but because I wonder what stupid stuff government is going to do about it.

Karen

Diesel cars in the U.S. have never been real popular, to the point most car makers don’t even make on for the U.S. Ford has one of the most popular and fuel efficient small diesel cars in Europe, but doesn’t produce it for the U.S. market.

Middling

“Diesel cars in the U.S. have never been real popular” Part of the reason was the dearth of diesel powered cars in the US. Heck, most car manufacturers could not design a vehicle to meet the stringent US requirements.

So, if diesel engine’d cars could meet US requirements while maintaining their high fuel economy as well as some sportiness, diesels would sell in the US.

dc

If you smoke, you won’t notice the smell on your hands.

I like diesel better than gas. The engines need less maintenance and go further on a tank of gas. Time is money…

Doon1

Right now OPEC is fractured.Fuel prices will go up once the the middle
east countries kiss and make up. Fracking and the oil shale fields have
added to the lower fuel prices; but if legislation, or class action law
suits over weakened fault lines and earthquakes, kills fracking; and the
Klondike pipeline gets the go ahead, then the US will see a sharp
increase in fuel cost.
One of the other factors in lower fuel cost
is that when fuel prices skyrocketed, interest in alternative fuels was
piqued. Now that fuel prices are low, many companies that were investing
in those alternative fuels have lost the financial incentive to
continue. So prices won’t be increased until the alternative fuel craze
has been quelled. The most effective way to compete is to kill off your
competition.

>savt

right about now I wish Jeremy Clarkson wasn’t fired from Top Gear so we could get some color commentary on this

torjs99

good time to buy diesel? are you f***ing retarded? it’s never a good to drive or buy diesel if you like breathing

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