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Tory's new riding one of 15 key races

By Ian UrquhartQueen's Park columnist

Tues., Sept. 4, 2007

Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory kicked off the provincial election campaign yesterday with a rally in Don Valley West in Toronto, where he is running against Education Minister Kathleen Wynne.

Party leaders don't necessarily kick off campaigns in their own riding, but in this case the choice of venue was no accident. Don Valley West is one of at least 15 government-held seats that the opposition parties must win in order to reduce the Liberals to a minority in the Ontario Legislature.

The Liberals enter the campaign with 68 seats. With a new riding map, the number of seats in the Legislature will expand to 107 from 103 with the Oct. 10 election. That means the Liberals must win at least 54 seats to retain their majority.

Wynne won Don Valley West by 6,094 votes in 2003.

The riding, east of Yonge St. and south of the 401, is an amalgam of various neighbourhoods, including upper-class Bridle Path, upper-middle-class Lawrence Park, middle-class Leaside, and low-income Thorncliffe Park and Flemingdon Park.

Tory has been representing the exurban riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, which he won in a by-election. But he promised to run in a Toronto riding in the general election, and he chose Don Valley West, where he has lived most of his life, as he reminded his audience yesterday.

Wynne is an assiduous campaigner, and she says she has personally canvassed about two-thirds of the riding's polls this summer.

She will also benefit from help from an estimated 350 teachers from across the city, who are planning to swell the ranks of her volunteers.

"I knew it (Don Valley West) was a big challenge the minute I left Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey," Tory told reporters after yesterday's rally. "I knew I had a very formidable opponent and that I'd have to work hard."

Nonetheless, Don Valley West is a swing riding that will probably follow the provincial trend. If the trend is toward the Liberals, Wynne will win it; if it is toward the Conservatives, Tory will emerge on top.

Right now, the polls say the Liberals are slightly ahead province-wide; the numbers suggest a minority government.

Besides Don Valley West, here are 14 other Liberal ridings that could go to the opposition and place the Liberal majority in jeopardy:

(Note: Where riding boundaries have changed, the 2003 vote has been transposed on to the 2007 map.)

TORONTO

Willowdale. Straddling Bayview Ave. north of the 401, this riding is held by Liberal backbencher David Zimmer, who ousted David Young, a senior cabinet minister in the previous Conservative government, by 1,374 votes in 2003. Zimmer faces a stiff challenge this time from city councillor David Shiner.

The riding has a high proportion of Jewish voters, so the Conservatives' proposal to fund "faith-based" schools may play to Shiner's advantage here.

Scarborough-Guildwood. Incumbent Liberal Mary Anne Chambers, who won this ethnically diverse riding by almost 8,000 votes in 2003, is retiring from politics. Stepping into the breach for the Liberals is Margarett Best, a lawyer and past vice-president of the Black Business and Professional Association.

The Conservatives have nominated Gary Grant, a police officer and founder of the Crime Stoppers program.

905 BELT AROUND TORONTO

Brampton-Springdale. Former Peterson-era Liberal MPP Carman McClelland has turned coats and is running for the Conservatives against Liberal incumbent Linda Jeffrey, who won by 2,665 votes in 2003. To complete the circle, the Conservatives claim Jeffrey used to be one of them. She vehemently denies this.

Thornhill. The contest in this riding just north of Toronto was one of the closest in the 2003 provincial election, with Liberal Mario Racco winning over a Conservative incumbent by just 896 votes. This time the Conservatives are running CFRB radio host Peter Shurman. Again, this riding has a large Jewish population, which could determine the outcome.

HAMILTON-NIAGARA

Hamilton-Mountain. This seat was won for the Liberals in 2003 by Marie Bountrogianni, who crushed her chief challenger (a New Democrat) by more than 12,000 votes. But Bountrogianni is retiring from politics. In her place, the Liberals have nominated Sophia Aggelonitis, president of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce. Running for the New Democrats, who hold the seat federally, is Brian Adamczyk, past president of a Steelworkers union local. Making it a three-way fight is Bob Charters, a former local councillor, for the Conservatives.

Niagara Falls. This is a replay of the 2003 contest, which Liberal Kim Craitor won over Tory incumbent Bart Maves by 3,327 votes. Maves is the only defeated Conservative candidate from the 2003 election to run again. The Liberals have been pouring money into the riding, including funding for a new convention centre, in hopes of holding on to the seat.

SOUTWESTERN ONTARIO

London-Fanshawe. This riding is one of the few in the province that features a three-way fight. In 2003, the Liberal, NDP and Conservative candidates won 36 per cent, 31 per cent and 30 per cent of the vote, respectively. This time, Liberal incumbent Khalil Ramal is facing Conservative Jim Chapman, a radio and television talk show host, and New Democrat Stephen Maynard, a local activist.

Perth-Wellington. Incumbent Liberal John Wilkinson is in very tough in this Stratford-area riding against John Rutherford, a former dairy farmer. The riding boundaries have been sharply redrawn and the transposed vote shows the Tories would have won it in 2003.

EASTERN ONTARIO

Peterborough. This is a bellwether riding that almost always votes with the winning party. In 2003, Liberal Jeff Leal won it over a Conservative incumbent by 6,261 votes. This time Leal is up against the Conservatives' Bruce Fitzpatrick, a local lawyer. The outcome may hinge on the performance of the NDP, which has won the riding in the past but has fallen to a poor third in recent elections. An increase in its vote would come at the expense of the Liberals.

The Liberals won by 11,281 votes in 2003, but an anti-government backlash in rural Ontario will make Dombrowsky work hard to hold on to the seat. The Conservative challenger is Eric DenOuden, a local businessman.

Ottawa-Orleans. Liberal MPP Phil McNeely won this seat by 5,469 votes in 2003. Some 30 per cent of the voters are francophones, who usually back Liberals. But the median household income of $80,473 (third highest in the province) favours the Conservatives. Running for the Tories is Graham Fox, vice-president of the Public Policy Forum and a former chief of staff to Joe Clark.

NORTHERN ONTARIO

Nipissing. This North Bay-area riding used to belong to Mike Harris, but it was won by Liberal Monique Smith by 3,025 votes in 2003. This time she faces Conservative Bill Vrebosch, chair of the Rural Ontario Municipal Association. The New Democrats are not in serious contention, but, again, they could affect the outcome by getting their vote up to double digits (from just 7 per cent in 2003).

Sault Ste. Marie. David Orazietti grabbed this seat for the Liberals from the New Democrats by a wide margin (8,671 votes) in 2003. But the New Democrats hope to capitalize on unrest in northern Ontario to win it back with Jeff Arbus, president of the public service employees' union local.

Thunder Bay-Atikokan. Liberal Bill Mauro, who easily bested his NDP and Conservative opponents by more than 11,000 votes in 2003, faces a challenge from Conservative Rebecca Johnson, a local councillor and businesswoman.

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