Imagine a scenario this century that is very bleak for agriculture. What do you think we should do to address humanity's thrivability?

Suppose two things:
Suppose that the food producing carrying capacity (the number of people that can be fed from arable land) of the Earth within this century becomes less than one billion due to climate change, what do you think we should do to address thrivability? Suppose that you had all the necessary resources to act. For full credit, apply empathy, logic, and self-integrating system properties. Yes, this might be on the final exam.

Closing Statement from Mark Hurych

Thanks to everyone that participated. I apologize to anyone who might have felt slighted.

The answer I got here is that people are on many different islands of being about humanity's current reality. We all have hopes and fears but our paradigms I've found are unexpectedly different. Our perspectives and priorities sometimes don't even seem to have common ground.

I very much want to find that common ground, across cultures, across the globe, across everything that separates and isolates us. One way I plan to address this yearning is by tuning my questions to be more inclusive and collective.

I feel that art does this, pulls us together and gives us common ground, even across language barriers and across time. I want to be good. This sounds so strange but I want to be a good ancestor. I don't see myself as an artist but I would very much like to do something for the greater good the way a composer or an artist might leave behind an inspiring artifact.

Dec 29 2012:
Thanks for your input. (I'll dig up an extra credit question about boundary conditions where you get to answer, "Well, isn't that obvious.") I will look into your "A Farm For The Future" source. I wonder how many people have seen the "Meatrix" video. Funny and informative.

Dec 30 2012:
OMG, Lejan. Spot on. Cool. Far out. Yes. The clip and ideas promoted i it are the basis for Permaculture and other practices of horticulture that are designed to promote life and diversity in the soil, thereby building natural capital. I'm going to follow up on the references and links associated with BBC clip, On the downside, uh, it wasn't that obvious. Not really.

Dec 31 2012:
Hi Mark,
it wasn't that obvious to me either before I stumbled across Rebecca Hosking. Actually I was surprised that I did not see this dangerous connection between fossil fuels and food production before her documentary by myself, so I was speechless in more than just one aspect of her story...

There is another interesting BBC documentary about agriculture, actually ancient agriculture and what we could learn from it. It is about 'Terra preta' or 'black soil' which was found in the Amazonian area as silent relicts of a once flourishing indigenous society:

This video gets a bit slowly to the point and consist out of two parts with a pause in between. At time 49:16 the second part begins and 'dives' much deeper into the topic, whereas the first part focus more on the historical context.

As you seem to be interested in agriculture and in case you have not heard about 'Tera preta' before, this might give you some additional ideas, especially as it is quite compatible with the presented solutions by Rebecca Hosking.

I found the 'Meatrix' video some while ago and I think it is a good way to make some people understand what they are eating. As I grew up in a quite sensitive environment on this topic, the video didn't tell me anything new, yet many people may get to think a bit deeper into it and hopefully act upon it in making their choices...

Dec 29 2012:
When things get bleak people tend to individualize. For example; in WW II families grew thier own small garden plots. Then they would share/trade with neighbors. They would give it other advise on how to make things last longer and nothing was wasted. It's survival and respect for each other at its best.

Dec 31 2012:
Before things actually get bleak but while the predictions are considered as a possibility, what would you do to avert them? Would you grow a garden for food? Would you promote this idea? What other ideas do you have?

Jan 2 2013:
Yes, incourage the growing of food. Also, since the 1920's food distribution has always been a problem. We grow and throwaway more food then we can consume, even today. So, this needs to be addressed. Some mentioned that it takes time to grow food, but many plants that are out there have never been used for human consumsion (sic). I have traveled the world and believe me cultural differences has created various appetites for unusual items. For example; grubs, insects, certain grasses and plants such as dandilion (in your own back yard). People will find and eat things they never would have thought about. History has proven that.

Dec 29 2012:
The cause of this problem wouldn't matter, nor would anyone care. The break point which could cause this dire situation would trump everything.

Imagine the information age world is going from seven billion plus toward one billion people on a downhill slide.

A situation that would result in this kind of drastic reduction in human population numbers would appear to be the end of the world. Cooperative behavior would not disappear, but would likely give away to our more cunning and aggressive side in the battle to survive.

Spaceship earth could take on a new reality none of us would want to contemplate. Individual or group efforts no matter how thoughtfully considered and employed to restore faith would go unnoticed. Just maintaining basic law and order could be impossible in some areas as gangs go wild in the cities creating their own new world order.

Food and ammunition would disappear from retail outlets as people would grab what they could despite efforts to lessen the panic. Businesses would likely disappear to black markets and barter systems. Who knows what would happen nationally.

At the very least, or perhaps best, much of the world would be under emergency rule to maintain as much order as possible to weather the crisis. It well may be our best hope to recapture a retrievable stable human niche and retain some civility in the process.

I hope I didn't sound to negative - this is just a theoretical exercise, right?

Dec 31 2012:
"The cause of this problem wouldn't matter, nor would anyone care." I care. As well, I think that the ONLY way to address any problem is by understanding what it is and what its causes are. I do not like contemplating gloomy scenarios as they might play out. However, I do want to anticipate that we can alter the outcomes.

Incidentally, I care too, otherwise I wouldn't be so active on TED. I share your concern about our well being on spaceship earth. Keep up the good work.

My preferred approach to our existing and pending environmental problems is best addressed by cutting tax deductions for those having children. Also the efforts to assist family planning to avoid unwanted pregnancies is important. I liked what Melinda Gates in her TED Talk had to say on this subject.

I see this as more an issue of idealism than education. I think the world is grossly overpopulated and we are paying an accelerating negative environmental price for that reality.

On the other hand, it is likely we could continue to sustain more and more people by the talents and application of our education systems. For example, we can genetically modify fish, plants, etc., to be larger to better feed the multitudes despite the harm to wild fisheries, native plants, etc. Engineers can mitigate global warming by doing - who knows what. And on and on it goes. All the while talk show radio will explain to the masses why these commercial operations are a godsend.

I am not a purist. I appreciate technology, economics, politics, etc., but I don't worship these things.

Ok, I have to admit that the worst grades I ever got started with exactly this phrase, yet I do not claim to be capable of learning ... :o)

So let's see what's left in my 'memory box' about nature and eco-systems in general and to take those fragments to hopefully get another 'just passed' in my long, long row of all the others ...

Nature has no favorite species, and the 'battle of life' no final and lasting winner - and this probably nowhere in this Universe. Yet back and 'down to earth'...

The thriving of any species is strictly tight to a basic set of constant and dynamic boundary conditions, which are undeniable, indisputable and 'value-free' in their intrinsic nature and given by 'nature' herself.

As a whole, the Eco-sphere is a constantly changing and dynamic equilibrium, equipped with several latency buffers for 'cause & effect' events as well as 'real time' consequences. As there is no favorable state of this dynamic equilibrium to be in, seen from nature herself, the survival of any species comes without any guarantee...

In the given scenario, the ' food producing carrying capacity' will dynamically influence the 'number of people' who will be able to survive on it and as 'we' are less likely to accept close people to die of starvation, we would do better to adjust 'our' population on purpose and 'in advance' to the given capacity, to avoid any further and tragic widespread deaths, which was the 'intro' of this scenario anyway and would therefore be a 'landmark' within the collective memory of those surviving it ...

The number of the population + a safety margin for poor harvests, would be determined by an average 'output' of a biological and 'closed-cycled' agriculture, in which no dependency on limited resources would add another risk for a another and worldwide food shortage.

A sustainable population of our species, would probably be found by iteration, as the complexity of the whole system is beyond our understanding.

Dec 27 2012:
My assertion is that we are already playing some kind of Russian roulette with our planet. I'm not content with any one answer unless it fundamentally eliminates the danger. Even one "bullet" is one too many. It's been said already that the harmful change of our air and climate will continue for some time even if we completely stopped emitting CO2 now. All answers and all people must work together. We must all put on our thinking caps as inhabitants of our one and only home planet. No one person can break this bundle of sticks problem but by sharing the effort it is a snap. Seven billion human brothers and sisters can and should be involved. How creative and effective we could be by making this effort together.

Dec 28 2012:
Never before did so little people die from violence, hunger and extreme weather events (procentually, worldwide), never did we live so long and healthy lives, twice as long as in the beginning of the 20th century (which is true for almost any country, bar Zimbabwe and North Korea), never did we produce so much food and energy per capita. Never before could half of the world population be considered middle class, as is now.
Deforestation is declining, rapidly, worldwide. In de developed world forests are increasing, the UK has more forest now than in any time in the past 500 years, air and water quality are improving in the west, animals (wolfs, bears, whales, storks, beavers etc) are returning. And renewable energy is the fastest growing energy source in the world.
Far from accidently destroying ourselves, the Earth we are molding to fit our needs is proving to be increasingly kind to us.

Dec 28 2012:
Here is the comment on Mr. Spectors talk I cited earlier.
Dec 18 2012: Genetically modified food is a great idea, it's the Monsanto's of the world that are effing things up! When upwards of 90% of the genetically modified food in NA is modified to be herbicide resistant it's a gross misuse of the technology! I can't even begin to get into the problems these crops are creating for the ecosystems they are planted in to the tactics of Monsanto and the ownership of the crops. I had many problems with this talk, Dr. Paul Kratka eloquently mentions some of them below. If I didn't know better I would think that someone was paying Mr. Specter for these comments!?!

Dec 28 2012:
I agree with you. It's very hard to believe we're commiting several kinds of harmful actions against the beautiful and nice blue planet that it's our Home. We must bue more conscious and respectful for our Home. (sorry for my bad English). I'd like to encourage everybody for caring better that wonderful Home.

Dec 29 2012:
Yes, I really think so. Sometimes giving a walk by the sea side, enjoying the wonderful sun we can see here in Spain, it's easy to feel oneself like (only a) part of this complex world and then, at the same time, you can feel that nobody has the right for damaging it anyway, and we all have the obligation for caring it. It's not our private property, it's also of the animals, plants... One ought to feel guilty making something harmful against the environment.

Dec 31 2012:
The first thing needing attention is the ?50% or so who don't really care. They have to purpose or meaning in their lives, no goals, and no prevalent system of values to encourage them to modify their behavior. Our governments and institutions have proven themselves impotent and slovenly; if it's every one for him or her self why bother? The first thing WE need to do is stop voting, stop shopping and give God a little CPR!

Dec 31 2012:
Enter "Empathic Civilization" with its inclusion and openness. Movements in this direction tend to be lateral instead of vertical. Viral spread of an idea (meme) is more powerful in the long run because it is making management teams obsolete.

Dec 26 2012:
Everything does not depend upon money.
People have been brainwashed into thinking it does.
Money does nothing. Nothing costs money.
Everything costs people. It's people who do things, not money.
Changing that thinking paradigm might help because everyone knows this or can quickly know it when it becomes more common place to believe and speak in this way.

Global warming probably cannot be stopped unless we humans simply stop. Stop doing what we are doing and realize what is really important. But we keep thinking we must continue doing what we are doing which is what has caused all this to begin with. For instance, if we cleaned up the oceans, but stopped fishing completely for 10 years and we also stopped any and all activity in and on the oceans, they might just heal themselves. We cannot heal them. We can only clean our garbage up. We could work en masse to begin cleaning up the planet for those who will or might survive.
What is important is our survival, meaning everyone, as much as is possible. That requires helping one another to survive rather than competing as we have been trained into doing, and realizing all that we don't need - we don't need.
Survival is a sharp enough edge to cut away all the B.S. we have bought into and "bought" is the apropo word.
Buying is consuming. It isn't managing, it isn't economy, meaning economizing, meaning eliminating waste.
That right there is a huge change in thinking and that is where it has to begin.
The juggernaut of our demise needs to be stopped now but regarding my ocean idea, many will say, "You can't just stop fishing or using the oceans! That's ridiculous!" Is it? No, it isn't. If we don't stop, everything will stop. It's really simple.

Things don't "get done" because of money.
Things "don't get done" because of money.

Taking the management of resources out of the hands of those who misuse and mismanage them for money (profit)
would be a great start
The resources of the earth belong to everyone, not to any "one".

Dec 27 2012:
Simply stop. Yes, that's true. The rest of the biota would thrive without us. Yet we have done the calculation that one tenth of one percent of the sun's energy that hits our planet would be enough for everyone's energy needs. Solar energy is a good replacement for hydrocarbons. A world wide grid is possible and a practical solution for dayside Earth to share with nightside Earth. No fish zones on 20 to 50% of the continental shelf oceans would return most fish populations within 15 years. Solar powered desalinization plants could generate fresh water. Biochar soil enrichment could allow food crop production with a negative carbon footprint. Mycelium cultivation could remediate the biodiversity of old growth forests. Alternate currencies and economies could make every human rich immediately. Urban planning for density could bring population down. Online systems for global thrivability could test, store, and communicate the best ideas.

Dec 27 2012:
Stopping won't do, calculations by the IPCC show that even if we would not emit any CO2 from now on, climates would still change dramatically.

We should do quite the opposite, we should assume full responsibility. Embrace all technological options, go into geo engineering.
We are as Gods, and have to get good at it - Stewart Brand

And everybody knows it's about people, money is just an inventive mechanism to put value on people. 70% of the money spent by an average company, goes to wages.
And considering that on a free market the price of anything is determined by supply and demand, the fact that nothing has gotten so expensive as people, means that people are more scarce and more valued than ever.

Dec 31 2012:
If we are as gods, then stopping and reversing CO2 venting seems to be one legitimate way to address the climate crisis. I look to the collective will of people, rather than coercive policy.

There is an idea that this is relatively easy to attain. I feel that this is true and an important insight for individual persons. I mean thriving as the opposite of sickly or frail. "Thrivability" is a newer word, its implications are that "sustainability" is too weak or not really inclusive enough. So when I hear about sustainability I think about babies' health. Somehow just sustaining life doesn't seem adequate.

Jan 6 2013:
Climate Crisis Metaphor
Any conceptual aid may be misleading in some ways and helpful in other ways. I hope to bring out some helpful aspects here.

A sinking house-boat is my model for the climate crisis. We are all in the same boat. Some of us become concerned about keeping our reserved seat and changing our socks to keep our feet dry (rebuild after Sandy or Katrina). Some of us want to distract ourselves to feel better, to sing songs and hold hands (environmentalists who quit, political leaders distracting constituents). Some of us spread the word about bailing (educators/bloggers). Some speculate about what tipping points will or won't do (climate model scientists). agricultural revolutionaries (Permaculture, mega-gardening, hydroponics, agro-forestry)

Jan 5 2013:
C&C [or "Contraction and Convergence"] is one part of an integrated four part concept-constitution.

The first 'domain' of this is 'Contraction and Concentrations'. Here, simply put, the question is what global total of future emissions is consistent with a safe and stable concentration outcome and thus achieving compliance with the objective of the UN Climate Treaty [UNFCCC].

Then - Domain two "Contraction and Convergence" and domain three "Contraction and Conversion" options are computed as a function of the result obtained in the first domain calculation.

The overall result is then tested against Domain four "Damages and Growth". This means the whole exercise is about "Precaution" and "Prevention" and analysing to ensure that we are 'doing enough soon enough' to make it worth the effort [as doing too little too late is obviously not].

What is optimal is achieving UNFCCC-compliance.

What is not optimal or ever going to be, is continually trying to achieve UNFCCC-compliance based on keeping the cart of growth in front of the horse or prevention, as a way of sustaining confusion and indecision by provoking conflicting ideological opinions about urgency and equity.

Jan 2 2013:
Firstly I believe global warming is just a natural trend, and if any man made activity has an effect on it the massive amount of asphalt roads and parking lots would be the source. Think about it mile after mile of solar powered heaters vs a inert gas? The CO2 theory is just a scam.

But there are real possibilities that would cause a major "shift" in agriculture, off the top of my head; a mega-volcano like yellow stone erupting or the magnetic poles flipping. Besides the obvious switching of land crops that would take place, underground farm fields is now possible with the advancements in solar power and full spectrum lighting. Also with the great possibilities that sea grown crops and ranching has, it makes a bleak scenario extremely unlikely.

Jan 3 2013:
lol Ok, you caught me. I'm part of a big scam. CO2 is not building up from human activity. Even if it's building up it doesn't really affect the heat budget by radiative forcing as reported by the IPCC. They all lied. And the amount of radiative forcing by CO2 is not 1.6 watts per square meter, since it was peer reviewed by the co-conspirators. I'm so ashamed. I guess the only honorable thing to do is give back the millions that Al Gore and Bill Gates bribed me with to run this subversive conversation. What was I thinking?

Jan 3 2013:
Interesting, I posted in hopes to calm you fear of a bleak agriculture future and you read it as a clam that you are part of the scam. Totally dismissing the possibility asphalt roads may be a greater factor.

I did acknowledge that there are indisputable possibilities that would cause a major "shift" in agriculture and proposed areas in which that would be possible expand agriculture.
I did this in hopes of having a productive conversation; for example (as someone knowledgeable about biospheres) you could have replied why or why not growing crop with solar power full spectrum lighting would work.

If I had gotten a proper TED reply I could have replied back with something about how it would even keep the day/night cycle and even seasonal lighting changes would automatically be done, with the lighting being solar powered.

Jan 3 2013:
My intention is to encourage creative practical thinking. I do not mean to incite fear. I do not mean to incite anger either. I admit that conduct this inquiry with certain assumptions and suppositions. Unspoken and unmentioned is my supposition the participants in this discussion would intend to be helpful, not to me personally to the climate crisis. If you truly don't believe that humans have a role to play in addressing this issue I can accept that. My "lol" was just an honest response. I meant no disrespect, and certainly meant no vilification. If you don't believe that human activity is causing global warming, then I don't think you'll have anything helpful to offer since we aren't recognizing the same causal relationships.

Jan 4 2013:
How can you calm him with your reply, as you lack any authority to make claims, nor do you post any external sources that back you up?
We can't hardly hold any random scientific fantasizing we hear on internet for the truth.

All scientific claims I read, do point on CO2 causing rising temperatures. But, as I state in the post above, temperatures might not rise as much as was long claimed.

Jan 3 2013:
What. Are you saying I need to diet? Can you see me? Seriously, I only heard about the Sugar Palms from the orangutan preserves in Borneo. I understand it can be tapped for sugar without destroying the tree. This sounds excellent. I find that Moringa trees may be a good insurance against loss. It can also be harvested without destroying the tree. And it grows back quickly.

I still tend to think that we can mitigate the worst of climate change before it peaks.

Jan 1 2013:
Best wishes to you and your loved ones for 2013 Mark and everyone else on TED. Had a similar conversation with a friend about this. We were debating the impact of logistics on food distribution. In the U.K, over the last three years we have had increased rainfall due to (non-tech term) 'buckled jet stream'. All the root crops have rotted in the ground and plants like tomatoes have suffered from the excessive attentions of fungus and insects. However every cloud has a silver lining and some birds managed to get two lots of chicks produced so it mopped up some of excess insects. My friend pointed out that at some point, somewhere there is sufficient crops to feed the local population plus sell the extra. It is all in the movement of the food and at the moment petrol is very expensive. BTW I realise living in UK we are incredibly lucky. So once again a complex situation in 3000 characters. Do worry about 'dark' stores and the implications of centralised purchasing when majority of population so time-poor they only shop on-line. Very worried UK govt talking about introducing food tokens to stop people on benefits buying cigarettes and booze. Logistics - big fan of 'just in time' management but food takes at least three months to grow and in the case of meat at least a year at this latitude. Old skills like bottling and preserving not taught here for at least three generations, city kids don't even know what an animal looks like as the meat is presented on a polystyrene tray and actually buying any meat other than sausages getting really expensive. Try to grow my own at local allotments but essentially a population that is time poor does not have enough time to service their food supply. Fascinating debate thank you so much.

Jan 2 2013:
CO2 blankets Earth and keeps too much heat in. This change in average temperature may cause some very bad things globally in this century (perhaps a lowered carrying capacity due to loss of arable land). It's hard to tell what will hurt us worst or first, but it will probably hurt us badly. We are the ones pumping CO2 into the air in the first place. We have to figure out effective ways of doing things differently so we can have a safer future for the planet. We are not that good at helping each other really. We are not comfortable with change in general. If this were easy, it wouldn't be worth asking.

Happy New Year to you, Elizabeth Muncey. Best wishes to you and yours.

Dec 31 2012:
To so many of these comments and ideas I'd want to add my original question: And what do you think we should do? I didn't ask "why do you think we are already doing everything right?" Nor did I ask "why do you think we're doomed." So to iterate: What do you think we should do? How do you think we can make this planet a better place, while considering the supposition that certain predictions may be accurate, as scary as they are?

Jan 1 2013:
Easy answer Mark, hard to practice. If you want to have enough food for everyone, you need less everyones. No politician will admit that though, and individuals all want to do whatever they want, and have as many children as they want, so really, what can you do about it? Look at our reactions to China's one child policy. Many Americans I talk to think it is barbaric and horrible that a society would dare try to control the population. So, if populations just keep increasing, while resources keep diminishing, a lot more people are going to starve, simple as that. Last year, the world grew less food than it consumed. That can't go on forever obviously. What we COULD do, is to think about sustainability not in terms of buying shade tree grown coffee, but as not having too many children for the resources we have. But again, most people think it is in the constitution somewhere that they should have as many kids as they want. So, the real question is how to change peoples' minds.

Jan 1 2013:
Everyone is seven billion.
And I still want to know what you think we should do now. Getting more food might help. Having a lower birthrate might help. Reversing CO2 venting to the atmosphere might help. Geo-engineering to lower global temperature might help. Finding ways to bond as a species team might help. Alternate sources of energy might help.
And education, particularly zero to five-years-old creativity and such might help change people's minds together.
What other possibilities are there?
There are political solutions, educational solutions, empathic solutions, collective intelligence solutions, technical solutions, business solutions, economic solutions...

But again, there are 7 billion of us with each a different perspective about what can most effectively be done first.

So the real question is: what do you have to bring to the table? Easy answers? Ain't no free lunch!

Jan 2 2013:
Why would you consider any problem more easily solved with more hands and more heads, except for global warming?
I think we will solve it sooner, with more people.
People are not problems, they are problemsolvers.

Jan 2 2013:
I would be interested to hear your explanation on the fact that we produce the most per capita food now than ever before. And more energy per capita than ever.
Far from diminishing resources, more people mean more resources available per person. Practically all resources are more affordable now than ever, thus less scarce. (In fact the only resource that has consistently become more expensive (and thus scarcer) are people)

It is not ' if populations just keep increasing, while resources keep diminishing, a lot more people are going to starve, simple as that', That's lazy thinking, dogmatic and with no scientific justification whatsoever. The more people we are, the more we all have, and you lot never seem to understand why.

And you should be ashamed hailing a policy that invoked the Chinese (poor) people to throw millions of baby girls into the dustbin, only seconds after their births, with mothers screaming for their new born; with hardly any noticable difference in birthrates in comparison with other Asian countries that did not have a 1 child policy (see Hans Rosling).
It is perhaps the greatest genocide in recent history. And you defend it, because you are (erroneously) under the impression that those babies will take a piece of your pie. Sickening.

Jan 2 2013:
We produce more food per capita now than ever. Check. True. We provide more energy per capita now than ever. Check. True.

All that increase in energy use comes with the price everyone pays: the unpredictable tipping points of global warming. This includes a reduced carrying capacity of the planet.

Also true that a reduction in population would slow the approach of these unknowable tipping points or positive feedback dangers. It is one very cruel but possible means of avoiding the dangers. As drastic as it is, I would compare it to the need to diet in order to lose weight by eating 3 fewer donuts from your daily dozen.

Jan 4 2013:
Victor, have you also noticed there was a huge drought and that the world actually produced less food than it consumed this year? How long do you think that can go on? Also, I ask you to read about peak oil. Our entire economic system is based on oil and sorry to say, it is a limited resource. The North Sea, Alaska, and even some of the gulf states production is sinking and they are having to pump a lot more water just to get those numbers (water, another limited resource). People in China and India are wanting to live like Americans, so where is all that oil going to come from? Also, if there is such a glut of energy, why is oil 5 times the cost of what it was 10 years ago?

You illustrate the problem perfectly. No one wants to think about controlling the population and say it is evil to even think of such a thing. So, that is why nothing will ever be solved. By the way, actually read about the one child policy in China. It is not about killing girls, or killing anyone.

Dec 31 2012:
False choices abound here. Choosing "clean air" does not slow down CO2 vent. Choosing self preservation does not help ameliorate global problems. Choosing not to go to war does not build empathic civilization.

Dec 31 2012:
Joshua and John, policy changes are part of the solution. Rather than stricter in the sense of more sticks and carrots, perhaps more allowance for intrinsic motivations of autonomy, mastery and purpose. Promoting ecologically sound policy solutions for foods other than meat might also be worthy of pursuit for the greater good. Too many people present their ideas as "either/or" paths. Let's do more and/and.

Jan 1 2013:
Of course, however a one child policy is much more drastic and doesn't necessarily have more effect than simply eating less meat (which could be accomplished through awareness campaigns, cutting subsidies, increasing animal welfare requirements and introducing a tax on meat). Growing food for livestock takes up about 2/3 of all agriculture and only 1 in 17 of the calories in these plants is stored in the meat. So a reduction in meat consumption of just 25% will yield over 15% more calories for humanity without an expansion of agriculture, that's enough food to feed another 1 billion people on top of the 7 billion we already have.

@below

I'm not sure urban gardens actually reduce net energy use, but those other options might, there is also a lot to gain by switching staple foods, for example potatoes are more efficient than rice. Much of the energy use comes from shipping food around the world because somewhere else farmrs work for less, which is the real problem: if there wasn't such a divide between rich and poor countries much more food would be grown locally.

Btw, may I congratulate on the quality of this topic: it's really refreshing to have one that's 99 posts long and intelligently discusses real problems in a civil manner with no loonies.

Jan 2 2013:
I agree on your logic of reducing meat consumption. How about another comparison, and maybe a step with more leverage: For every 1 calorie of food produced, we use 10 calories of energy in the form of fuel. Since it is that fuel which vents CO2 and causes the problem of blanketed warming, why not shift less energy intensive means of production such as agroforestry, mega-gardening, hydroponics, urban gardens on roof and wall, Permaculture, etc. That way we produce more food with less expenditure of energy, keeping it local and reduced livestock.

Dec 29 2012:
Given the current global population of 7+billion, your scenario of a global carrying capacity of 1 billion would mean the premature death of 6/7th of the world's population – by starvation or war - since one generates the other.

Given that death by starvation or violence is horrible to contemplate, it would be responsible to reduce our population naturally by reducing the birth rate so as to manage a reduction in global population in an organised and equitable way. High taxes and / or removal of social benefits for those with big families (3 or more children), balanced with extra financial and social rewards for those who choose to have one or no children. Don't ask me how we acheive this as a globally agreed policy!

The entire global population would need to revert to a mostly vegetarian diet, growing whatever crops grow well locally. New foods such as eating insects (Locusts) would become necessary since they are nutritional and can be farmed easily and quickly. Traditional meat such as beef and pork would need to be drastically reduced as they are resource hungry.

Since CO2 is “food” for growing plants domestic and office hydroponic systems will become common – saving on food transportation and taking advantage of vertical space and indoor micro-climates.

This answer is certainly NOT in creating more and more genetically modified crops. The well predicted Monsanto mess has resulted in the development of super weeds resistant to Round-UP.

Jan 2 2013:
As with any tool, say an ax for example, we can use it well and safely when we take enough care to do things right. There are also sick or careless human possibilities for its use.

Of course GM and nuclear power are potentially hazardous on a much larger scale, but they may hold the benefits we need to make it as a species.

We could "revert" to a veggie diet without much harm, only inconvenience. This is why I asked the question: To see what people think of as too dangerous or appropriate solutions.

CO2 is food for plants and promotes growth, but long before then it is blanketing and collecting heat from the sun which is the major cause of the climate crisis in the first place. It's invisible. The effects are huge and carry great momentum, making warming very hard to stop, but since it's spread out it's also hard to measure accurately. Argo buoys are among the best. See http://wo.jcommops.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Argo

Death by starvation is not given. It is predicted. Agreement on any policy is tricky, yes. Note the resources we have globally to wage war on each other. The kind of threat in the prediction we are pondering would be more devastating than nuclear war, Yet as gruesome as all-out war is, we continue to support its possibility. Isn't that a curious thought?

Dec 29 2012:
Re: "we should collectively become architects of our future."
Some of us will and some won't. You're suggesting the "we," meaning all, can gain a sufficient awareness about non linear matters. This remains to be seen. The alternative is a tipping point where a substantial influence can be applied by the some who can.

Re: "Collective intelligence itself is a field of study"
Without getting into a discussion of how we might gain a pre-frontal cortex for a "group mind", we are left with "collective unconsciousness." At best change of this type is generations away, and my best guess is that it would be achieve through a new social narrative, like "Avatar", and with video games along the lines that Jane McGonigal is suggesting.

Jan 2 2013:
Clay Shirky in Cognitive Surplus
"Humans are fundamentally individual, but we are also fundamentally social. Every one of us has a rational mind; we can make individual assessments and decisions. We also have an emotional mind; we can enter into deep bonds with other people that transcend our individual intellects."

Jan 3 2013:
Shirky also says, ""Free cultures get what they celebrate." While "we can also celebrate and support and reward the people trying to use cognitive surplus to create civic value," we are, I fear, to distracted and self oriented to accomplish much of anything. i.e. Occupy World St. and the Arab Spring.

""My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists." Eddie Obeng

Dec 29 2012:
There is a principle called the "logistic grow curve." Simply put, animals populations increase when conditions are favorable, and decrease when the available resources become limited.

"The logistic equation (sometimes called the Verhulst model or logistic growth curve) is a model of population growth first published by Pierre Verhulst (1845, 1847). The model is continuous in time, but a modification of the continuous equation to a discrete quadratic recurrence equation known as the logistic map is also widely used.

"The Verhulst equation was published after Verhulst had read Thomas Malthus' An Essay on the Principle of Population. Verhulst derived his logistic equation to describe the self-limiting growth of a biological population. The equation is also sometimes called the Verhulst-Pearl equation following its rediscovery in 1920. Alfred J. Lotka derived the equation again in 1925, calling it the law of population growth."

Dec 29 2012:
I believe we are talking about similar trends albeit with different elements involved. Peak oil and peak farm land reflect peak population in concept. A logistic growth curve seems to work with all other variables set. The issue is not that the carrying capacity is low now, but rather will be held low by a change that turns once arable land into desert. The tree line moves north at some speed as well, but I understand that the over-all effect is a reduction of available land for growing food. I do not mean to suggest that we should welcome a wiped out world population, but rather that we should collectively become architects of our future. Collective intelligence itself is a field of study and an appropriate tool, as is geo-engineering, and alternate economies.

Dec 28 2012:
The transcrip of the first video looks like it was run through a bad translator. My video card is going out so I have no other way to watch the vid right now.Second video no transcript available. Couldn't get any of them to play and there are no good transcripts.

This is typical of the forge ahead screw everybody else mentality that is going to and is bringing our society down. It's sad to see it here.

Dec 29 2012:
I think I would heartily endorse each recommendation but I would like to add a caveat to 4). A phosphorous filter might be designed into the system that draws on waste phosphorous to form useful forms to return to soil instead of being bound for landfill. Phosphorous in the form of phosphates need to be balanced in water and soil ecosystems.