June 14, 2006

Look Into My Eyes - You Are Edging Closer, Closer (Cal-50)

When the runoff election for California's 50th district (the Duke Cunningham seat) ended on June 6th, Republican Brian Bilbray was ahead of Democrat Francine Busby by a small margin; that margin has grown with every passing day as more and more absentee and provisional ballots are counted.

Here is a handy chart of the progress; the final row is my back of the thumbnail projection of the final count:

Caption here

Date

Brian Bilbray R

Francine Busby D

R Lead

Ballots left

June 6th

49.33%

45.46%

3.87%

68,500

June 11th

49.51%

45.15%

4.36%

35,455

June 13th

49.61%

45.00%

4.61%

12,500

TBD - Proj.

49.72%

44.97%

4.75%

0

The last row is actually the mean average of my estimate of the likely low- and high-end estimates. I reckon that Brian Bilbray will finally end up with between 49.65% and 49.79%, with the gap between himself and Francine Busby ranging from a low of 4.7% to a high of 4.8% (this is all approximately, of course).

Before the election, I predicted that Bilbray would win by 5%, and that we would know the winner on election night. I also certainly expected that Bilbray would win a majority. I missed those predictions, but by such slight margins that I'm going to call it a hit... it's not a bar bet, after all, and being off by a mere 0.25% is close enough for the blogosphere!

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: Don

This shall not stand! Next week Robert Kennedy Jr. will publish his essay showing that infallible exit polls taken on election day showed Francine Busby with an 'unassailable' lead until Karl Rove stole the election.

The above hissed in response by: Don at June 14, 2006 4:58 PM

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