Commentary

The Toyota Supra sports coupe is set to return and this time the confirmation comes through an unlikely party: NASCAR. Indeed, this week, Toyota announced that beginning with 2019’s NASCAR Xfinity Series (NXS), the Supra will replace the Camry, the latter fielded in races since 2007.

So, why does this signal that the Supra will, indeed, make its production return? For the simple reason that NASCAR models are based on production versions only — the models raced on Sunday attract customers to dealer showrooms on Monday.

Sure, the Camry and its competitors are nothing like the vehicles available for consumers, but the name is the same. Even the canvas is usually quite different, with painted on “headlights” and other embellishments included to at least suggest a correlation with the model you can find at your local dealer. After all, you cannot purchase a two-door Camry — at least one that isn’t new and one without the Solara appellation following the model name.

Daytona 500 NASCAR Race Debut

How close are we to seeing a new production-ready Supra? Very close, as the NASCAR variant will debut at Daytona Beach on February 16, 2019. That date marks the Daytona 500, the event that launches the new racing season. Thus, sometime between now and then, Toyota will make an official announcement.

In years past, that announcement would come at an auto show. For instance, the Los Angeles Auto Show held in November or early December or at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit beginning in mid-January.

But we don’t expect either show to debut the 2019 Toyota Supra. Instead, the automaker is likely to determine a time and place of its own choosing to introduce the new model.

A production-ready Supra will return, sharing design elements with this race car.

We see one of two possible scenarios unfolding:

1. Toyota will debut the Supra during a lull in the automotive news cycle.

But not in a dead period when people’s attention is elsewhere, namely when their feet are buried in the sand, as at their favorite beach. Instead, Toyota might tie the announcement to another event, such as the Monterey Car Week and the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance.

This year’s event will take place August 18-26, which means Toyota could time its announcement for the Friday before, which would be August 17, 2018. Certainly, they could wait for the show to begin and roll out the new model at Pebble Beach on the main show day.

2. The automaker might choose an unexpected show to debut the Supra.

Another scenario is to simply debut the Supra at the Miami Auto Show, which this year will be held Oct. 5-13, 2018, at the newly renovated Miami Beach Convention Center. Last year’s show was canceled due to Hurricane Irma. This year’s show launches following a $620 million renovation of the convention center.

Although not a major show, some manufacturers have chosen the venue to launch a new product. Indeed, Miami is where Nissan rolled out the Rogue Hybrid in 2016. Although auto show debuts are decreasing in importance, there is something about introducing a new vehicle in South Florida in October that’s certain to draw attention.

Goodwood Festival of Speed

Of course, you may have heard that Toyota will showcase the 2019 Supra at the Goodwood Festival of Speed, which takes place from July 12-15. On July 5, Toyota Europe tweeted, “#ToyotaSupra is back. A90. At Goodwood Festival of Speed 2018 @fosgoodwood”

The A90 designation is the code for the all-new Supra, which was developed alongside an all-new BMW Z4. We have heard that the Supra will not receive a manual transmission, which is news that truly saddens the faithful. We understand the “take rate” for manuals is historically low, but if you are to be taken seriously in this business, you still have to offer one. Perhaps Toyota will follow Jaguar’s lead in this department as the British automaker introduced a six-speed manual for the F-Type’s second year.

Arriving Soon: 2019 Toyota Supra

We don’t know for certain whether Goodwind will debut the absolute final production-ready copy or if we’ll see a concept teaser without the camouflage. Regardless, the Supra is coming back and its return is a cause for mass celebration.

If I were a betting man (and I am not), the Goodwind reveal will show us nearly everything about the model inside and out, with the production details and pricing news timed to coincide with this year’s Pebble Beach.

A quick scan of the automotive landscape, especially in the United States, reveals that consumers are snapping up SUVs and pickup trucks to the detriment of coupes, sedans, and wagons. Some brands, such as Buick, are selling as many as three SUVs to one car, underscoring the wholesale shift away from traditional transportation choices.

Some analysts see a permanent shift away from cars to high-profile vehicles and are essentially calling the segment dead. Indeed, just this past week we’ve heard rumors that GM may cancel two large sedans — the Chevrolet Impala and Cadillac XTS, with even a few smaller models such as the Chevrolet Sonic possibly on the chopping block. Also, it is unlikely we’ll see a new Ford Taurus and similar rumors that next-generation Fiesta won’t arrive stateside continues. Further, Fiat Chrysler has already canceled the midsize Chrysler 200 and compact Dodge Dart sedans, while Hyundai has similar plans for the large Azera sedan.

Small pickup trucks such as thisGMC Canyon are fueling demand.

Are cars doomed? Or are we seeing a temporary shift that may someday swing back or at least strike a balance between cars and utility vehicles/trucks? Here’s how I see things shaping up over the next several years:

1. Several car models will go away. It seems likely most of the previously mentioned models will, indeed, go away. Some have questioned the Taurus’ demise, given that it is used by police departments across the country. On closer inspection, other Ford models such as the Explorer are in greater demand, taking sales from the Taurus. Moreover, this past April, Ford announced it was bringing the Ford Police Responder Hybrid Sedan to the market, based on the Fusion Hybrid. It’ll be used mostly in urban settings, but it should fill the void once Taurus production ends.

2. A shrinking pie, with fewer players. Not every automaker is abandoning shrinking segments, at least not yet. The large sedan segment has seen the most significant pullback of any, with sales falling by more than one half over the past five years. Toyota is planning to bring the next generation of its large Avalon to the market next year, even as Hyundai, Chevrolet, and Ford abandon the market. This makes sense because the 2019 Avalon is based on the same platform underpinning the Toyota Camry and also shares its wheelbase with the Lexus ES Series. Avalon sales may be falling, but Toyota is poised to fill the void left with its own model. Livery owners everywhere rejoice!

Rumors of the Ford Fiesta’s demise may be exaggerated.

3. Shrinking, but not dying. Not all car segments are going away. One reason large sedan sales are falling is because midsize sedans are taking up the slack. Today’s midsize models are nearly as large as the big sedans sold 15 years ago. They’re also better made, well equipped, and affordable. Doubtlessly, the D-segment pie will continue to shrink, but there is an opportunity for those who are patient. Indeed, both the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are all new for 2018, while a refreshed Hyundai Sonata rolls out. Sales of such remaining models as the Ford Fusion, Nissan Altima, Chevrolet Malibu, and Kia Optima remain strong. It is doubtful the Subaru Legacy will go away, although models such as the Mazda 6 and Volkswagen Passat may not receive an update anytime soon.

Small SUVs such as this Honda HR-Vare siphoning sales from cars.

4. Gas prices are a driving factor. Low fuel prices have people running away from fuel-efficient models. That said, today’s utility vehicles are more efficient than ever. Still, if gas prices begin to rise, consumers may suddenly shift demand to vehicles currently in low demand. No utility vehicle delivers anywhere near the 40 mpg of a Ford Fiesta or even a Toyota Camry. Prius sales may be down, but when gas prices top $4 per gallon in some places, demand could suddenly rise. Fuel demand worldwide has eased over the past few years, but war or some sort of environmental calamity (e.g. earthquake, oil spill, meteor impact) could quickly shift demand. Those automakers with the right mix of models in place will be the winners here.

5. Consumer tastes change and without reason. Who can figure out the mind of the consumer? Focus groups, surveys, and polls may capture consumer sentiment at the moment, but they aren’t always accurate and can never gauge whims. Cars carry a certain mystique SUVs cannot match and remain the favorite of enthusiasts and collectors alike. Not so with SUVs.

The fate of such models as this Chrysler 300 is unknown.

Tapping the Market

Cars are not doomed, but some models are on life support. Certainly, SUVs are more profitable, so manufacturers go where the money easily flows. Manufacturers who hedge their bets are able to quickly pivot, especially when consumer sentiment changes — sometimes on a whim.