Look at How High-Seeded Mid-Majors Perform in the NCAA Tournament

Last year’s NCAA Tournament field featured only one mid-major team that received a high seed (1-4). That was Gonzaga out of the West Coast Conference (WCC).

It was the sixth time since 2005 that the Bulldogs were seeded as a 1-4 seed. Previously the furtherest they had gone was the Elite 8 back in 2015 as a 2-seed before losing to Duke. Last year they nearly won it all, reaching the championship game, where they fell in a closely contested game against North Carolina.

While there’s still a lot to be determined before now and Selection Sunday, there’s a good chance we will have at least one mid-major qualify for this list in 2018. Both Wichita State and Cincinnati out of the American Athletic (AAC) are currently projected as a No. 3 seed, while Gonzaga is right on the bubble at a No. 5. You also have the likes of Nevada (Mountain West) and Rhode Island (Atlantic 10) in the mix, as each is projected at a No. 6 seed right now.

Let’s take a look at how have these kinds of teams fared in the past? Do they make good sleeper teams?

I went back over every tournament since 1985. The focus is on 1-4 seeds from non-power conferences. Some teams that used to be considered mid-majors have since joined power conferences. We use the conference the teams was in for the season listed. Here are the results.

Look at How High-Seeded Mid-Majors Perform in March Madness

Round of 64

Record: 73-4 (94.81%)

Mid-major teams seeded 1-4 are excellent when it comes to the first round of the tournament. These are teams that had a special season to gain the recognition of the selection committee.

They also play low-seeded teams that just made the tournament or received an automatic bid.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

66

16

South Dakota State

46

Win

2015

2

Gonzaga

86

15

North Dakota State

76

Win

2014

4

San Diego State

73

13

New Mexico State

69

Win

2014

1

Wichita State

64

16

Cal-Poly

37

Win

2014

4

Louisville

71

13

Manhattan

64

Win

2013

4

St. Louis

64

13

New Mexico State

44

Win

2013

1

Gonzaga

64

16

Southern

58

Win

2013

3

New Mexico

62

14

Harvard

68

Loss

2011

2

San Diego State

68

15

Northern Colorado

50

Win

2011

3

Brigham Young

74

14

Wofford

66

Win

2010

3

New Mexico

62

14

Montana

57

Win

2009

4

Xavier

77

13

Portland State

59

Win

2009

4

Gonzaga

77

13

Akron

64

Win

2009

2

Memphis

81

15

Cal State Northridge

70

Win

2008

1

Memphis

87

16

Texas-Arlington

63

Win

2008

3

Xavier

73

14

Georgia

61

Win

2007

2

Memphis

73

15

North Texas

58

Win

2007

4

Southern Illinois

61

13

Holy Cross

51

Win

2006

1

Memphis

94

16

Oral Roberts

78

Win

2006

3

Gonzaga

79

14

Xavier

75

Win

2005

4

Louisville

68

13

Louisiana-Lafayette

62

Win

2005

3

Gonzaga

74

14

Winthrop

64

Win

2004

4

Cincinnati

80

13

East Tennessee State

77

Win

2004

1

St. Joseph’s

82

16

Liberty

63

Win

2004

2

Gonzaga

76

15

Valparaiso

49

Win

2003

3

Xavier

71

14

Troy

59

Win

2003

4

Louisville

86

13

Austin Peay

64

Win

2003

4

Dayton

71

13

Tulsa

84

Loss

2003

3

Marquette

72

14

Holy Cross

68

Win

2002

1

Cincinnati

90

16

Boston University

52

Win

2000

2

Temple

73

15

Lafayette

47

Win

2000

2

Cincinnati

64

15

UNC Wilmington

47

Win

1999

3

Cincinnati

72

14

George Mason

48

Win

1999

2

Utah

80

15

Arkansas State

58

Win

1998

4

New Mexico

79

13

Butler

62

Win

1998

2

Cincinnati

65

15

Northern Arizona

62

Win

1998

3

Utah

85

14

San Francisco

68

Win

1997

3

New Mexico

59

14

Old Dominion

55

Win

1997

2

Utah

75

15

Navy

61

Win

1997

4

St. Joseph’s

75

13

Pacific

65

Win

1997

3

Cincinnati

86

14

Butler

69

Win

1996

2

Cincinnati

66

15

UNC Greensboro

61

Win

1996

4

Marquette

68

13

Monmouth

44

Win

1996

4

Utah

72

13

Canisius

43

Win

1996

1

Massachusetts

92

16

Central Florida

70

Win

1995

4

Utah

76

13

Long Beach State

64

Win

1995

2

Massachusetts

68

15

St. Peter’s

51

Win

1994

4

Temple

61

13

Drexel

39

Win

1994

3

Louisville

67

14

Boise State

58

Win

1994

2

Massachusetts

78

15

Texas State

60

Win

1993

3

Massachusetts

54

14

Penn

50

Win

1993

4

Louisville

76

13

Delaware

70

Win

1993

2

Cincinnati

93

15

Coppin State

66

Win

1992

3

Massachusetts

85

14

Fordham

58

Win

1992

4

Cincinnati

85

13

Delaware

47

Win

1991

4

Utah

82

13

South Alabama

72

Win

1991

1

UNLV

99

16

Montana

65

Win

1990

4

Louisville

78

13

Idaho

59

Win

1990

4

La Salle

79

13

Southern Mississippi

63

Win

1990

1

UNLV

102

16

Arkansas-Little Rock

72

Win

1989

4

UNLV

68

13

Idaho

56

Win

1989

4

Florida State

83

13

Middle Tennessee State

97

Loss

1989

4

Louisville

76

13

Arkansas-Little Rock

71

Win

1988

4

UNLV

54

13

Missouri State

50

Win

1988

1

Temple

87

16

Lehigh

73

Win

1988

4

Brigham Young

98

13

Charlotte

92

Win

1987

3

DePaul

76

14

Louisiana Tech

62

Win

1987

2

Temple

75

15

Southern

56

Win

1987

1

UNLV

95

16

Idaho State

70

Win

1986

4

UNLV

74

13

Louisiana-Monroe

51

Win

1986

3

Notre Dame

83

14

Arkansas-Little Rock

90

Loss

1986

2

Louisville

93

15

Drexel

73

Win

1986

3

Memphis

95

14

Ball State

63

Win

1985

2

Virginia Commonwealth

81

15

Marshall

65

Win

1985

2

Memphis

67

15

Penn

55

Win

1985

4

Loyola (Ill.)

59

13

Iona

58

Win

1985

4

UNLV

85

13

San Diego State

80

Win

Round of 32

Record: 42-31 (57.53%)

Once we get to the second official round of the tournament, things start to come apart. These teams still have a winning record, but it pales in comparison to the previous round.

For many of these teams getting past the first round might be a relief. Nobody wants to be that mid-major team that loses as a top seed in the first round. Once that pressure is off about 42% of those teams falter.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

79

8

Northwestern

73

Win

2015

2

Gonzaga

87

7

Iowa

68

Win

2014

4

Louisville

66

5

St. Louis

51

Win

2014

4

San Diego State

63

12

North Dakota State

44

Win

2014

1

Wichita State

76

8

Kentucky

78

Loss

2013

1

Gonzaga

70

9

Wichita State

76

Loss

2013

4

St. Louis

57

12

Oregon

74

Loss

2011

2

San Diego State

71

7

Temple

64

Win

2011

3

Brigham Young

89

11

Gonzaga

67

Win

2010

3

New Mexico

64

11

Washington

82

Loss

2009

4

Xavier

60

12

Wisconsin

49

Win

2009

4

Gonzaga

83

12

Western Kentucky

81

Win

2009

2

Memphis

89

10

Maryland

70

Win

2008

1

Memphis

77

8

Mississippi State

74

Win

2008

3

Xavier

85

6

Purdue

78

Win

2007

4

Southern Illinois

63

5

Virginia Tech

48

Win

2007

2

Memphis

78

7

Nevada

62

Win

2006

1

Memphis

72

9

Bucknell

56

Win

2006

3

Gonzaga

90

6

Indiana

80

Win

2005

4

Louisville

76

5

Georgia Tech

54

Win

2005

3

Gonzaga

69

6

Texas Tech

71

Loss

2004

4

Cincinnati

68

5

Illinois

92

Loss

2004

2

Gonzaga

72

10

Nevada

91

Loss

2004

1

St. Joseph’s

70

8

Texas Tech

65

Win

2003

4

Louisville

71

12

Butler

79

Loss

2003

3

Xavier

64

6

Maryland

77

Loss

2003

3

Marquette

101

6

Missouri

92

Win

2002

1

Cincinnati

101

8

UCLA

105

Loss

2000

2

Temple

65

10

Seton Hall

67

Loss

2000

2

Cincinnati

61

7

Tulsa

69

Loss

1999

3

Cincinnati

54

6

Temple

64

Loss

1999

2

Utah

58

10

Miami (Ohio)

66

Loss

1998

4

New Mexico

46

5

Syracuse

56

Loss

1998

3

Utah

75

6

Arkansas

69

Win

1998

2

Cincinnati

74

10

West Virginia

75

Loss

1997

2

Utah

77

7

Charlotte

58

Win

1997

3

New Mexico

63

6

Louisville

64

Loss

1997

3

Cincinnati

66

6

Iowa State

67

Loss

1997

4

St. Joseph’s

81

5

Boston College

77

Win

1996

2

Cincinnati

78

7

Temple

65

Win

1996

4

Utah

73

5

Iowa State

67

Win

1996

1

Massachusetts

79

9

Stanford

74

Win

1996

4

Marquette

56

12

Arkansas

65

Loss

1995

2

Massachusetts

75

10

Stanford

53

Win

1995

4

Utah

64

5

Mississippi State

78

Loss

1994

3

Louisville

60

6

Minnesota

55

Win

1994

4

Temple

58

5

Indiana

67

Loss

1994

2

Massachusetts

87

10

Maryland

95

Loss

1993

4

Louisville

78

5

Oklahoma State

63

Win

1993

2

Cincinnati

92

7

New Mexico State

55

Win

1993

3

Massachusetts

56

6

Virginia

71

Loss

1992

3

Massachusetts

77

6

Syracuse

71

Win

1992

4

Cincinnati

77

5

Michigan State

65

Win

1991

4

Utah

85

5

Michigan State

84

Win

1991

1

UNLV

62

8

Georgetown

54

Win

1990

1

UNLV

76

8

Ohio State

65

Win

1990

4

Louisville

60

12

Ball State

62

Loss

1990

4

La Salle

75

5

Clemson

79

Loss

1989

4

UNLV

85

12

DePaul

70

Win

1989

4

Louisville

93

5

Arkansas

84

Win

1988

4

UNLV

86

5

Iowa

104

Loss

1988

1

Temple

74

8

Georgetown

53

Win

1988

4

Brigham Young

76

5

Louisville

97

Loss

1987

3

DePaul

83

6

St. John’s

75

Win

1987

2

Temple

62

10

LSU

72

Loss

1987

1

UNLV

80

9

Kansas State

61

Win

1986

4

UNLV

70

5

Maryland

64

Win

1986

3

Memphis

81

11

LSU

83

Loss

1986

2

Louisville

82

7

Bradley

68

Win

1985

2

Memphis

67

7

Alabama-Birmingham

66

Win

1985

2

Virginia Commonwealth

59

7

Alabama

63

Loss

1985

4

Loyola (Ill.)

70

5

Southern Methodist

57

Win

1985

4

UNLV

61

12

Kentucky

64

Loss

Sweet 16

Record: 23-19 (54.76%)

I expected to see a bigger drop-off than this in the Sweet 16. Mid-major teams who make it this far into the tournament must be the real-deal. They play much better opponents at this point.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

61

4

West Virginia

58

Win

2015

2

Gonzaga

74

11

UCLA

62

Win

2014

4

Louisville

69

8

Kentucky

74

Loss

2014

4

San Diego State

64

1

Arizona

70

Loss

2011

3

Brigham Young

74

2

Florida

83

Loss

2011

2

San Diego State

67

3

Connecticut

74

Loss

2009

4

Gonzaga

77

1

North Carolina

98

Loss

2009

2

Memphis

91

3

Missouri

102

Loss

2009

4

Xavier

55

1

Pittsburgh

60

Loss

2008

1

Memphis

92

5

Michigan State

74

Win

2008

3

Xavier

79

7

West Virginia

75

Win

2007

4

Southern Illinois

58

1

Kansas

61

Loss

2007

2

Memphis

65

3

Texas A&M

64

Win

2006

3

Gonzaga

71

2

UCLA

73

Loss

2006

1

Memphis

80

13

Bradley

64

Win

2005

4

Louisville

93

1

Washington

79

Win

2004

1

St. Joseph’s

84

4

Wake Forest

80

Win

2003

3

Marquette

77

2

Pittsburgh

74

Win

1998

3

Utah

65

10

West Virginia

62

Win

1997

4

St. Joseph’s

68

1

Kentucky

83

Loss

1997

2

Utah

82

6

Stanford

77

Win

1996

2

Cincinnati

87

3

Georgia Tech

70

Win

1996

4

Utah

70

1

Kentucky

101

Loss

1996

1

Massachusetts

79

12

Arkansas

63

Win

1995

2

Massachusetts

76

6

Tulsa

51

Win

1994

3

Louisville

70

2

Arizona

82

Loss

1993

2

Cincinnati

71

6

Virginia

54

Win

1993

4

Louisville

69

1

Indiana

82

Loss

1992

4

Cincinnati

69

9

UTEP

67

Win

1992

3

Massachusetts

77

2

Kentucky

87

Loss

1991

1

UNLV

83

4

Utah

66

Win

1991

4

Utah

66

1

UNLV

83

Loss

1990

1

UNLV

69

12

Ball State

67

Win

1989

4

Louisville

69

1

Illinois

83

Loss

1989

4

UNLV

68

1

Arizona

67

Win

1988

1

Temple

69

13

Richmond

47

Win

1987

3

DePaul

58

10

LSU

63

Loss

1987

1

UNLV

92

12

Wyoming

78

Win

1986

2

Louisville

94

3

North Carolina

79

Win

1986

4

UNLV

63

8

Auburn

70

Loss

1985

2

Memphis

59

11

Boston College

57

Win

1985

4

Loyola (Ill.)

53

1

Georgetown

65

Loss

Elite Eight

Record: 12-11 (52.17%)

Again, I was a little bit surprised at how well mid-major teams performed at this level. Opponents here are usually 1 and 2 seeds. It is no small feat for them to win as much as they lose.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

83

11

Xavier

59

Win

2015

2

Gonzaga

52

1

Duke

66

Loss

2008

1

Memphis

85

2

Texas

67

Win

2008

3

Xavier

57

1

UCLA

76

Loss

2007

2

Memphis

76

1

Ohio State

92

Loss

2006

1

Memphis

45

2

UCLA

50

Loss

2005

4

Louisville

93

7

West Virginia

85

Win

2004

1

St. Joseph’s

62

2

Oklahoma State

64

Loss

2003

3

Marquette

83

1

Kentucky

69

Win

1998

3

Utah

76

1

Arizona

51

Win

1997

2

Utah

59

1

Kentucky

72

Loss

1996

2

Cincinnati

63

5

Mississippi State

73

Loss

1996

1

Massachusetts

86

2

Georgetown

62

Win

1995

2

Massachusetts

54

4

Oklahoma State

68

Loss

1993

2

Cincinnati

68

1

North Carolina

75

Loss

1992

4

Cincinnati

88

6

Memphis

57

Win

1991

1

UNLV

77

3

Seton Hall

65

Win

1990

1

UNLV

131

11

Loyola Marymount

101

Win

1989

4

UNLV

61

3

Seton Hall

84

Loss

1988

1

Temple

53

2

Duke

63

Loss

1987

1

UNLV

84

2

Iowa

81

Win

1986

2

Louisville

84

8

Auburn

76

Win

1985

2

Memphis

63

1

Oklahoma

61

Win

Final Four

Record: 5-7 (41.67%)

The buck stops here. Only 5 out of the 12 schools that have gone to the Final Four have made it to the championship game.

The only teams that have won in this situation are: Gonzaga, Memphis, Utah, UNLV and Louisville. These aren’t teams from power conferences, but they aren’t exactly pushovers either.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

77

7

South Carolina

73

Win

2008

1

Memphis

78

1

UCLA

63

Win

2005

4

Louisville

58

1

Illinois

75

Loss

2003

3

Marquette

61

2

Kansas

94

Loss

1998

3

Utah

65

1

North Carolina

59

Win

1996

1

Massachusetts

74

1

Kentucky

81

Loss

1992

4

Cincinnati

72

6

Michigan

76

Loss

1991

1

UNLV

77

2

Duke

79

Loss

1990

1

UNLV

90

4

Georgia Tech

81

Win

1987

1

UNLV

93

1

Indiana

97

Loss

1986

2

Louisville

88

11

LSU

77

Win

1985

2

Memphis

45

8

Villanova

52

Loss

Championship Game

Record: 2-3 (40%)

Louisville (1986) and UNLV (1990) are the only mid-major teams to win a National Championship.

Season

Seed

Team

Score

Opp. Seed

Opponent

Opp. Score

Result

2017

1

Gonzaga

65

1

North Carolina

71

Loss

2008

1

Memphis

68

1

Kansas

75

Loss

1998

3

Utah

69

2

Kentucky

78

Loss

1990

1

UNLV

103

3

Duke

73

Win

1986

2

Louisville

72

1

Duke

69

Win

Conclusion

Mid-major teams perform well in the first round of the tournament. After the first round, it is a coin flip until the Final Four. Once these teams reach this level they tend to collapse.