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The 2019 US Holiday selling season kicks off in early November, as retailers try to avoid the crunch around Black Friday, and get consumers' holiday shopping dollars in as early as possible.
The ad for Sam's Club One Day Only sale on November 9th just dropped. We breakdown the highlights for TV.

On August 23rd, China raised tariffs on about $75 billion in goods from the US, including agricultural and automotive products. In response, President Trump announced later the same day that he was raising the impending tariffs on about $300 billion in goods from China, broken into two waves, from 10% to 15%.

The Consumer Electronics industry is in the middle of two critical weeks related to the US-China trade war, and the implications for the consumer electronics industry broadly, and the TV industry specifically, are significant.
This analysis breaks down the current situation, impacts of key decisions.

Global TV demand in Q1'19 saw moderate growth, better than expected. Ongoing trade issues between the US and China have resulted in some very unusual shipment patterns in North America, which has led to some stockpiling of inventory. In an effort to control that inventory, price erosion has been huge in the US, which has spurred a boom in sell-through.
TCL shipments to retailers in North America surged, with the brand overtaking Samsung for the top market share position on a unit basis in Q1'19, though Samsung maintained the top market share on a revenue basis.
The attached analysis takes a highlight look at the results from Q1 2019 shipments, and our take on what happened.

Most of the major retailer ads for Black Friday have been released/leaked, so it is time to roll out our annual preview of the deals for TVs and how they compare to years past.
A significant increase in the number of 50" and larger sets as anticipated, with a focus on 60"+.
Highlight - A 60" 4K LCD TV is available in 2018 for the same price as a 32" HD LCD TV in 2008, just under $400!
Please download the attached presentation for the full analysis

Each year, usually a few weeks prior to Black Friday in early November, retailers are eager to be the first to start attracting eager buyers ahead of the official start of the holiday shopping season. These early promotions seem to attract a decent amount of buying interest, especially if the retailer is less likely to participate as aggressively during Black Friday.
Sam's Club, a member-only US warehouse club retailer, has published the circular advertisement for their November 10th One Day Savings Event. TVs are predictably a prominent feature of the sale, and we break down how this might be very early indicators of Black Friday pricing.

On June 15th, the US Office of the Trade Representative released the final document indicating which of the more than 1,300 products were to be included in tariffs against Chinese imports. The final list included more then 800 products, and an additional 280 were proposed pending public comment, totaling $50 billion in imports.
TVs were initially on the list of products, causing panic among the CE industry, but intense lobbying led to TVs being dropped from the list of products.

On April 4th, the US Office of the Trade Representative published a list of 1,300 products that could be subjected to an additional 25% import tariff if coming from China. Flat panel TVs are included on this list, and given the very low margins on the bulk of entry level TVs, and the fact that many of the smaller in mid-sized TVs are imported fully assembled from China, it could have a very big impact on the entire TV market.
The attached report breaks down the details of the possible tariff, and the impacts on the supply chain, as well as possible reactions.
Of course, it is important to note that this list of products is under a 60 day review process, and we expect heavy lobbying on the part of manufacturers and trade organizations. The outcome or final list could change before the end of May.

TVs are always a critical category in consumer electronics for the holiday season, Black Friday in particular. Spectacular prices on TVs drive traffic into retailers, but while 2016 discounts were large and drove strong traffic, 2017 is looking considerably more muted.
Many of the major Black Friday advertisements have been released, and although there can be some last minute adjustments, we have analyzed the known pricing and provided our thoughts on prices, brands, retailers, sizes and more.
Please be sure to download the presentation to get the complete and thorough breakdown, comparing Black Friday 2017 against prior years. There will be follow up analysis after Black Friday once we have had an opportunity to review the activity.

Significant TV market share shifts are possible in 2017 related to supply chain dynamics, such as access to adequate panels, as well as who is most aggressive in pricing among a relatively weak level of price erosion. As a result, some brands may have the opportunity to take advantage of such changes to gain share in some regions.
Already in Q1'17 we have seen some significant changes in share, such as a dramatic increase in Sharp shipments in China and a surge in share by TCL in North America. Both brands have captive supply chains for LCD panels.
The attached analysis highlights these shifts as well as some important changes in the Japan domestic brand share situation.

Key 2016 Black Friday promotions have been released in the US. This analysis of the TV promotions includes summary of promotions, comparisons against previous years and key highlights.
Please download the attached presentation for complete analysis and summary.

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