Fantasy Football: Delanie Walker May Come Crashing Back Down to Earth in 2016

Walker was a fantasy football godsend last season. Can we expect a similar result this season?

Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker set career-highs in targets, catches, and receiving yardage in 2015. He saw an eye-popping 77 targets in the final seven games of the regular season and finished as the season-long TE2 behind only Rob Gronkowski.

Despite all of that, thereâ€™s a very good chance that heâ€™s currently being overvalued in early-season fantasy football drafts.

What do you need to know about Walker's 2016 season?

A Change In Makeup?

Not only did Walker excel in simple counting stats last season, he was also relatively efficient with his targets. Using numberFireâ€™s Using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player's value to his team over replacement-level, Walker ranked sixth in Reception NEP per target (0.70) among 19 tight ends with 75 or more targets. Efficiency plus a healthy target share is a deadly combination.

It obviously depends on your draft strategy, but if you find yourself in a league that starts only one tight end and you understand how your league settings affect positional draft value, much more attractive options emerge in Walkerâ€™s general draft vicinity.

It Comes Down to Strategy

It is possible that if things would break Walkerâ€™s way in 2016, he could post similar numbers to his 2015 totals, making him a bargain at his current ADP. But investing a sixth-round fantasy pick on a tight end is risky enough, especially with a wealth of other options available in the same range who offer more upside.

Taking into account the possibility that the Titans go more run-heavy in 2016 and Marcus Mariota distributing the target share more equally between more quality options, it seems more likely that Walker is bound for some regression.

If youâ€™re the type of fantasy owner who would rather not play the waiver wire all season and picking up a tight end with plus weekly matchups, I understand if you choose to draft Walker at his current price. But if youâ€™re okay with the idea of streaming, Walker becomes much more difficult to take consider numerous other factors.