Sander A. Diamond: Japan Inc.: A nation in danger

If there are a series of successive meltdowns that cannot be contained, Japan and the world will be faced with challenges on a scale not seen since World War II.

Sander A. Diamond

Seventeen miles below the surface of the Pacific Ocean and 80 miles east of the city of Sendai on the main Japanese island of Honshu, an earthquake along a fault in the Earth’s surface and a subsequent tsunami rocked the very foundation of Japan. It registered 8.9 on the Richter Scale when it struck on March 11 but has been revised to a 9 on the scale developed by Charles Richter in 1935 to measure the magnitude of an earthquake.

Previously, the highest recorded Richter Scale quake, a 9, happened in Chile in 1960. Now that the Japanese earthquake has been elevated to a 9, it will enter the record books but as the world knows, it is the devastation, not the number, which has captured our attention. As the Japanese prime minister reminded the world, this is the greatest disaster to hit Japan since the end of World War II.

Geologists fear that it is only a matter of time before the West Coast of the United States is struck, which was the case in Alaska in March 1964. But let’s say there is a quake, followed by a 50-foot wall of water that hits California. However devastating the impact on the land, infrastructure, population and economy of the region affected, the rest of the nation would not be shut down. But Japan’s land mass is very different. The entire series of islands are slightly less than the size of California. It is a tightly packed nation with 126.5 million people, less than half of the population of the United States with its 310 million. When one visits Japan, you are never far from the Japanese Sea of the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake moved this island nation 12 feet eastward and also caused a 6.5-inch shift in the rotation of the Earth.

The most pressing problem of Armageddon proportions comes from the possible meltdown of three or more nuclear reactors at the Fukushima site, which is located in Sendai, the city most affected. There has already been a “partial meltdown” of two of the reactors and more than 200,000 people have been evacuated from the surrounding area.

If the partial meltdowns can be contained and other nuclear plants do not start to have the same problems due to a lack of electrical power to cool the reactors, Japan will recover. However, it will not happen in a matter of months. The disaster had already taken a very heavy toll on the economy. With a GDP of $5 trillion, it is the third largest economy. What drives its growth is exports of cars, heavy machinery and electrical products. Fortunately, many of its major auto companies have factories overseas but the key components come from Japan. The Japanese know if they cannot get the situation under control as fast as possible, other nations could pick up a large portion of its market share. This happened to the United Kingdom in the wake of World War II.

Working in Japan’s favor is also the nature of its people who are highly disciplined and patient. There is no concern Japan will fall into chaos or the government will fall. The Japanese also know that they will not be abandoned by the world. Random acts of nature bring out the best in the human community. But if there are a series of successive meltdowns that cannot be contained, Japan and the world will be faced with challenges on a scale never before seen with the exceptions of the destruction caused by World War II in Asia, Europe and the USSR. We can only hope we have seen the worst of the disaster. For the Japanese, we are reminded of the words of Winston Churchill; the coming together of “all the terrible ifs.”

Sander A. Diamond is a professor of history at Keuka College in New York.

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