Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Latest IMD warning::ARB 01/2009/05 Dated: 23. 06. 2009 Time of issue: 2030 hours IST Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea, close to Gujarat coast The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 23rd June 2009 over northeast Arabian Sea near lat. 20.50 N and long. 71.00 E, close to south Gujarat and Diu coast near Diu. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and cross south Gujarat and Diu coast, near Diu within a few hours. Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat region during the same period. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north Konkan during next 24 hrs. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off north Gujarat coast during next 24 hrs and south Gujarat coast during next 12 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Rameswaram/Kanyakumari ,June 16: Sea remained rough in parts of Kanyakumari and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu as giant waves left three persons injured and caused damage to houses and roads in coastal hamlets today.

The sea was "abnormally rough..In fact fierce" in Kolachel, Kodimunai, Vaniyankudi, Kurumbanai, Erayumanthurai, and Ramanthurai in Kanyakumari district and Mukundharayar chattiram in this island, officials said.

Three persons including, two women, were injured as the violent waves tossed them in Erayumanthurai area. They have been hospitalised.

More than 30 houses were damaged in Erayumanthurai and 25 houses in Kadiyapatinam villages in Kanyakumari district as sea water entered the houses, bringing back dark memories of the 2004 tsunami, a report from Kanyakumari said.

Fishermen kept away from the sea while boat services to the Thiruvalluvar statue, a popular tourist spot in the sea off Kanyakumari, were suspended.

People at Kadiyapattinam were scared by the unusually high (about 20 feet) sea waves, which leaped past the barrier wall and inundated the village.

Water also entered huts close to the shore in Dhanushkodi and Rameswaram-Dhanushkodi road suffered extensive damage.

Four Sri Lankan Tamil refugees were stranded at the fourth sand dune between Rameswaram and Sri Lanka as the boatmen who ferried them could not navigate in the rough sea.

Late monsoon for northern India. Now Gujarat prepares for late monsoon with a bang.

Yesterday's LOW pressure system "93A" is now organized itself into a potential Arabian sea Cyclone.

JTWC is tracking the system as a potential Cyclone.

JTWC warning:: ***********************************

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 71.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 71.4E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 221611Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP OVER THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS IN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST, LAND INFLUENCES COULD HAMPER THE INFLOW TO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPER- ATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. ***********************************

Here's the JTWC warning graphic...

Latest satellite pic shows...

Good circulation cloud mass west of Mumbai and in striking distance from South-Gujarat.

Monsoon clouds covering almost FUll of Bay of Bengal. And monsoon is active over south-Kerala.